Robust Statistical Detection of Power-Law Cross-Correlation.

PubMed

Blythe, Duncan A J; Nikulin, Vadim V; Müller, Klaus-Robert

2016-06-02

We show that widely used approaches in statistical physics incorrectly indicate the existence of power-law cross-correlations between financial stock market fluctuations measured over several years and the neuronal activity of the human brain lasting for only a few minutes. While such cross-correlations are nonsensical, no current methodology allows them to be reliably discarded, leaving researchers at greater risk when the spurious nature of cross-correlations is not clear from the unrelated origin of the time series and rather requires careful statistical estimation. Here we propose a theory and method (PLCC-test) which allows us to rigorously and robustly test for power-law cross-correlations, correctly detecting genuine and discarding spurious cross-correlations, thus establishing meaningful relationships between processes in complex physical systems. Our method reveals for the first time the presence of power-law cross-correlations between amplitudes of the alpha and beta frequency ranges of the human electroencephalogram.

Robust Statistical Detection of Power-Law Cross-Correlation

PubMed Central

Blythe, Duncan A. J.; Nikulin, Vadim V.; Müller, Klaus-Robert

2016-01-01

We show that widely used approaches in statistical physics incorrectly indicate the existence of power-law cross-correlations between financial stock market fluctuations measured over several years and the neuronal activity of the human brain lasting for only a few minutes. While such cross-correlations are nonsensical, no current methodology allows them to be reliably discarded, leaving researchers at greater risk when the spurious nature of cross-correlations is not clear from the unrelated origin of the time series and rather requires careful statistical estimation. Here we propose a theory and method (PLCC-test) which allows us to rigorously and robustly test for power-law cross-correlations, correctly detecting genuine and discarding spurious cross-correlations, thus establishing meaningful relationships between processes in complex physical systems. Our method reveals for the first time the presence of power-law cross-correlations between amplitudes of the alpha and beta frequency ranges of the human electroencephalogram. PMID:27250630

Dissolution curve comparisons through the F(2) parameter, a Bayesian extension of the f(2) statistic.

PubMed

Novick, Steven; Shen, Yan; Yang, Harry; Peterson, John; LeBlond, Dave; Altan, Stan

2015-01-01

Dissolution (or in vitro release) studies constitute an important aspect of pharmaceutical drug development. One important use of such studies is for justifying a biowaiver for post-approval changes which requires establishing equivalence between the new and old product. We propose a statistically rigorous modeling approach for this purpose based on the estimation of what we refer to as the F2 parameter, an extension of the commonly used f2 statistic. A Bayesian test procedure is proposed in relation to a set of composite hypotheses that capture the similarity requirement on the absolute mean differences between test and reference dissolution profiles. Several examples are provided to illustrate the application. Results of our simulation study comparing the performance of f2 and the proposed method show that our Bayesian approach is comparable to or in many cases superior to the f2 statistic as a decision rule. Further useful extensions of the method, such as the use of continuous-time dissolution modeling, are considered.

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tripp, John S.; Tcheng, Ping

1999-01-01

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Trans-dimensional and hierarchical Bayesian approaches toward rigorous estimation of seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Mustać, Marija; Rhie, Junkee; Ford, Sean

2016-04-01

A framework is presented within which we provide rigorous estimations for seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia. We use Bayesian inversion methods, which enable statistical estimations of models and their uncertainties based on data information. Ambiguities in error statistics and model parameterizations are addressed by hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques, which can be inherently implemented in the Bayesian inversions. Hence reliable estimation of model parameters and their uncertainties is possible, thus avoiding arbitrary regularizations and parameterizations. Hierarchical and trans-D inversions are performed to develop a three-dimensional velocity model using ambient noise data. To further improve the model, we perform joint inversions with receiver function data using a newly developed Bayesian method. For the source estimation, a novel moment tensor inversion method is presented and applied to regional waveform data of the North Korean nuclear explosion tests. By the combination of new Bayesian techniques and the structural model, coupled with meaningful uncertainties related to each of the processes, more quantitative monitoring and discrimination of seismic events is possible.

Hypothesis testing of scientific Monte Carlo calculations.

PubMed

Wallerberger, Markus; Gull, Emanuel

2017-11-01

The steadily increasing size of scientific Monte Carlo simulations and the desire for robust, correct, and reproducible results necessitates rigorous testing procedures for scientific simulations in order to detect numerical problems and programming bugs. However, the testing paradigms developed for deterministic algorithms have proven to be ill suited for stochastic algorithms. In this paper we demonstrate explicitly how the technique of statistical hypothesis testing, which is in wide use in other fields of science, can be used to devise automatic and reliable tests for Monte Carlo methods, and we show that these tests are able to detect some of the common problems encountered in stochastic scientific simulations. We argue that hypothesis testing should become part of the standard testing toolkit for scientific simulations.

Hypothesis testing of scientific Monte Carlo calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallerberger, Markus; Gull, Emanuel

2017-11-01

The steadily increasing size of scientific Monte Carlo simulations and the desire for robust, correct, and reproducible results necessitates rigorous testing procedures for scientific simulations in order to detect numerical problems and programming bugs. However, the testing paradigms developed for deterministic algorithms have proven to be ill suited for stochastic algorithms. In this paper we demonstrate explicitly how the technique of statistical hypothesis testing, which is in wide use in other fields of science, can be used to devise automatic and reliable tests for Monte Carlo methods, and we show that these tests are able to detect some of the common problems encountered in stochastic scientific simulations. We argue that hypothesis testing should become part of the standard testing toolkit for scientific simulations.

Statistical Models for Averaging of the Pump–Probe Traces: Example of Denoising in Terahertz Time-Domain Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skorobogatiy, Maksim; Sadasivan, Jayesh; Guerboukha, Hichem

2018-05-01

In this paper, we first discuss the main types of noise in a typical pump-probe system, and then focus specifically on terahertz time domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) setups. We then introduce four statistical models for the noisy pulses obtained in such systems, and detail rigorous mathematical algorithms to de-noise such traces, find the proper averages and characterise various types of experimental noise. Finally, we perform a comparative analysis of the performance, advantages and limitations of the algorithms by testing them on the experimental data collected using a particular THz-TDS system available in our laboratories. We conclude that using advanced statistical models for trace averaging results in the fitting errors that are significantly smaller than those obtained when only a simple statistical average is used.

Statistical significance of combinatorial regulations

PubMed Central

Terada, Aika; Okada-Hatakeyama, Mariko; Tsuda, Koji; Sese, Jun

2013-01-01

More than three transcription factors often work together to enable cells to respond to various signals. The detection of combinatorial regulation by multiple transcription factors, however, is not only computationally nontrivial but also extremely unlikely because of multiple testing correction. The exponential growth in the number of tests forces us to set a strict limit on the maximum arity. Here, we propose an efficient branch-and-bound algorithm called the “limitless arity multiple-testing procedure” (LAMP) to count the exact number of testable combinations and calibrate the Bonferroni factor to the smallest possible value. LAMP lists significant combinations without any limit, whereas the family-wise error rate is rigorously controlled under the threshold. In the human breast cancer transcriptome, LAMP discovered statistically significant combinations of as many as eight binding motifs. This method may contribute to uncover pathways regulated in a coordinated fashion and find hidden associations in heterogeneous data. PMID:23882073

CORSSA: The Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.; Wiemer, Stefan

2010-01-01

Statistical seismology is the application of rigorous statistical methods to earthquake science with the goal of improving our knowledge of how the earth works. Within statistical seismology there is a strong emphasis on the analysis of seismicity data in order to improve our scientific understanding of earthquakes and to improve the evaluation and testing of earthquake forecasts, earthquake early warning, and seismic hazards assessments. Given the societal importance of these applications, statistical seismology must be done well. Unfortunately, a lack of educational resources and available software tools make it difficult for students and new practitioners to learn about this discipline. The goal of the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA) is to promote excellence in statistical seismology by providing the knowledge and resources necessary to understand and implement the best practices, so that the reader can apply these methods to their own research. This introduction describes the motivation for and vision of CORRSA. It also describes its structure and contents.

Studies on the estimation of the postmortem interval. 3. Rigor mortis (author's transl).

PubMed

Suzutani, T; Ishibashi, H; Takatori, T

1978-11-01

The authors have devised a method for classifying rigor mortis into 10 types based on its appearance and strength in various parts of a cadaver. By applying the method to the findings of 436 cadavers which were subjected to medico-legal autopsies in our laboratory during the last 10 years, it has been demonstrated that the classifying method is effective for analyzing the phenomenon of onset, persistence and disappearance of rigor mortis statistically. The investigation of the relationship between each type of rigor mortis and the postmortem interval has demonstrated that rigor mortis may be utilized as a basis for estimating the postmortem interval but the values have greater deviation than those described in current textbooks.

Small sample mediation testing: misplaced confidence in bootstrapped confidence intervals.

PubMed

Koopman, Joel; Howe, Michael; Hollenbeck, John R; Sin, Hock-Peng

2015-01-01

Bootstrapping is an analytical tool commonly used in psychology to test the statistical significance of the indirect effect in mediation models. Bootstrapping proponents have particularly advocated for its use for samples of 20-80 cases. This advocacy has been heeded, especially in the Journal of Applied Psychology, as researchers are increasingly utilizing bootstrapping to test mediation with samples in this range. We discuss reasons to be concerned with this escalation, and in a simulation study focused specifically on this range of sample sizes, we demonstrate not only that bootstrapping has insufficient statistical power to provide a rigorous hypothesis test in most conditions but also that bootstrapping has a tendency to exhibit an inflated Type I error rate. We then extend our simulations to investigate an alternative empirical resampling method as well as a Bayesian approach and demonstrate that they exhibit comparable statistical power to bootstrapping in small samples without the associated inflated Type I error. Implications for researchers testing mediation hypotheses in small samples are presented. For researchers wishing to use these methods in their own research, we have provided R syntax in the online supplemental materials. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Experiment Design for Complex VTOL Aircraft with Distributed Propulsion and Tilt Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick C.; Landman, Drew

2015-01-01

Selected experimental results from a wind tunnel study of a subscale VTOL concept with distributed propulsion and tilt lifting surfaces are presented. The vehicle complexity and automated test facility were ideal for use with a randomized designed experiment. Design of Experiments and Response Surface Methods were invoked to produce run efficient, statistically rigorous regression models with minimized prediction error. Static tests were conducted at the NASA Langley 12-Foot Low-Speed Tunnel to model all six aerodynamic coefficients over a large flight envelope. This work supports investigations at NASA Langley in developing advanced configurations, simulations, and advanced control systems.

Coverage Metrics for Requirements-Based Testing: Evaluation of Effectiveness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staats, Matt; Whalen, Michael W.; Heindahl, Mats P. E.; Rajan, Ajitha

2010-01-01

In black-box testing, the tester creates a set of tests to exercise a system under test without regard to the internal structure of the system. Generally, no objective metric is used to measure the adequacy of black-box tests. In recent work, we have proposed three requirements coverage metrics, allowing testers to objectively measure the adequacy of a black-box test suite with respect to a set of requirements formalized as Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) properties. In this report, we evaluate the effectiveness of these coverage metrics with respect to fault finding. Specifically, we conduct an empirical study to investigate two questions: (1) do test suites satisfying a requirements coverage metric provide better fault finding than randomly generated test suites of approximately the same size?, and (2) do test suites satisfying a more rigorous requirements coverage metric provide better fault finding than test suites satisfying a less rigorous requirements coverage metric? Our results indicate (1) only one coverage metric proposed -- Unique First Cause (UFC) coverage -- is sufficiently rigorous to ensure test suites satisfying the metric outperform randomly generated test suites of similar size and (2) that test suites satisfying more rigorous coverage metrics provide better fault finding than test suites satisfying less rigorous coverage metrics.

Maximum entropy models as a tool for building precise neural controls.

PubMed

Savin, Cristina; Tkačik, Gašper

2017-10-01

Neural responses are highly structured, with population activity restricted to a small subset of the astronomical range of possible activity patterns. Characterizing these statistical regularities is important for understanding circuit computation, but challenging in practice. Here we review recent approaches based on the maximum entropy principle used for quantifying collective behavior in neural activity. We highlight recent models that capture population-level statistics of neural data, yielding insights into the organization of the neural code and its biological substrate. Furthermore, the MaxEnt framework provides a general recipe for constructing surrogate ensembles that preserve aspects of the data, but are otherwise maximally unstructured. This idea can be used to generate a hierarchy of controls against which rigorous statistical tests are possible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using cancer to make cellular reproduction rigorous and relevant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, Cynthia F.

The 1983 report Nation at Risk highlighted the fact that test scores of American students were far below that of competing nations and educational standards were being lowered. This trend has continued and studies have also shown that students are not entering college ready for success. This trend can be reversed. Students can better understand and retain biology content expectations if they are taught in a way that is both rigorous and relevant. In the past, students have learned the details of cellular reproduction with little knowledge of why it is important to their everyday lives. This material is learned only for the test. Knowing the details of cellular reproduction is crucial for understanding cancer. Cancer is a topic that will likely affect all of my students at some point in their lives. Students used hands on activities, including simulations, labs, and models to learn about cellular reproduction with cancer as a theme throughout. Students were challenged to learn how to use the rigorous biology content expectations to think about cancer, including stem cell research. Students that will some day be college students, voting citizens, and parents, will become better learners. Students were assessed before and after the completion of the unit to determine if learning occurs. Students did learn the material and became more critical thinkers. Statistical analysis was completed to insure confidence in the results.

Statistical classification approach to discrimination between weak earthquakes and quarry blasts recorded by the Israel Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, A. F.; Troitsky, E. V.; Haikin, L. M.; Dainty, A.

1999-06-01

A semi-automatic procedure has been developed to achieve statistically optimum discrimination between earthquakes and explosions at local or regional distances based on a learning set specific to a given region. The method is used for step-by-step testing of candidate discrimination features to find the optimum (combination) subset of features, with the decision taken on a rigorous statistical basis. Linear (LDF) and Quadratic (QDF) Discriminant Functions based on Gaussian distributions of the discrimination features are implemented and statistically grounded; the features may be transformed by the Box-Cox transformation z=(1/ α)( yα-1) to make them more Gaussian. Tests of the method were successfully conducted on seismograms from the Israel Seismic Network using features consisting of spectral ratios between and within phases. Results showed that the QDF was more effective than the LDF and required five features out of 18 candidates for the optimum set. It was found that discrimination improved with increasing distance within the local range, and that eliminating transformation of the features and failing to correct for noise led to degradation of discrimination.

Mourning dove hunting regulation strategy based on annual harvest statistics and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, D.L.

2006-01-01

Although managers should strive to base game bird harvest management strategies on mechanistic population models, monitoring programs required to build and continuously update these models may not be in place. Alternatively, If estimates of total harvest and harvest rates are available, then population estimates derived from these harvest data can serve as the basis for making hunting regulation decisions based on population growth rates derived from these estimates. I present a statistically rigorous approach for regulation decision-making using a hypothesis-testing framework and an assumed framework of 3 hunting regulation alternatives. I illustrate and evaluate the technique with historical data on the mid-continent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population. I evaluate the statistical properties of the hypothesis-testing framework using the best available data on mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). I use these results to discuss practical implementation of the technique as an interim harvest strategy for mourning doves until reliable mechanistic population models and associated monitoring programs are developed.

Does McNemar's test compare the sensitivities and specificities of two diagnostic tests?

PubMed

Kim, Soeun; Lee, Woojoo

2017-02-01

McNemar's test is often used in practice to compare the sensitivities and specificities for the evaluation of two diagnostic tests. For correct evaluation of accuracy, an intuitive recommendation is to test the diseased and the non-diseased groups separately so that the sensitivities can be compared among the diseased, and specificities can be compared among the healthy group of people. This paper provides a rigorous theoretical framework for this argument and study the validity of McNemar's test regardless of the conditional independence assumption. We derive McNemar's test statistic under the null hypothesis considering both assumptions of conditional independence and conditional dependence. We then perform power analyses to show how the result is affected by the amount of the conditional dependence under alternative hypothesis.

A Case Study to Explore Rigorous Teaching and Testing Practices to Narrow the Achievement Gap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isler, Tesha

2012-01-01

The problem examined in this study: Does the majority of teachers use rigorous teaching and testing practices? The purpose of this qualitative exploratory case study was to explore the classroom techniques of six effective teachers who use rigorous teaching and testing practices. The hypothesis for this study is that the examination of the…

Normalization, bias correction, and peak calling for ChIP-seq

PubMed Central

Diaz, Aaron; Park, Kiyoub; Lim, Daniel A.; Song, Jun S.

2012-01-01

Next-generation sequencing is rapidly transforming our ability to profile the transcriptional, genetic, and epigenetic states of a cell. In particular, sequencing DNA from the immunoprecipitation of protein-DNA complexes (ChIP-seq) and methylated DNA (MeDIP-seq) can reveal the locations of protein binding sites and epigenetic modifications. These approaches contain numerous biases which may significantly influence the interpretation of the resulting data. Rigorous computational methods for detecting and removing such biases are still lacking. Also, multi-sample normalization still remains an important open problem. This theoretical paper systematically characterizes the biases and properties of ChIP-seq data by comparing 62 separate publicly available datasets, using rigorous statistical models and signal processing techniques. Statistical methods for separating ChIP-seq signal from background noise, as well as correcting enrichment test statistics for sequence-dependent and sonication biases, are presented. Our method effectively separates reads into signal and background components prior to normalization, improving the signal-to-noise ratio. Moreover, most peak callers currently use a generic null model which suffers from low specificity at the sensitivity level requisite for detecting subtle, but true, ChIP enrichment. The proposed method of determining a cell type-specific null model, which accounts for cell type-specific biases, is shown to be capable of achieving a lower false discovery rate at a given significance threshold than current methods. PMID:22499706

Assessing significance in a Markov chain without mixing.

PubMed

Chikina, Maria; Frieze, Alan; Pegden, Wesley

2017-03-14

We present a statistical test to detect that a presented state of a reversible Markov chain was not chosen from a stationary distribution. In particular, given a value function for the states of the Markov chain, we would like to show rigorously that the presented state is an outlier with respect to the values, by establishing a [Formula: see text] value under the null hypothesis that it was chosen from a stationary distribution of the chain. A simple heuristic used in practice is to sample ranks of states from long random trajectories on the Markov chain and compare these with the rank of the presented state; if the presented state is a [Formula: see text] outlier compared with the sampled ranks (its rank is in the bottom [Formula: see text] of sampled ranks), then this observation should correspond to a [Formula: see text] value of [Formula: see text] This significance is not rigorous, however, without good bounds on the mixing time of the Markov chain. Our test is the following: Given the presented state in the Markov chain, take a random walk from the presented state for any number of steps. We prove that observing that the presented state is an [Formula: see text]-outlier on the walk is significant at [Formula: see text] under the null hypothesis that the state was chosen from a stationary distribution. We assume nothing about the Markov chain beyond reversibility and show that significance at [Formula: see text] is best possible in general. We illustrate the use of our test with a potential application to the rigorous detection of gerrymandering in Congressional districting.

Assessing significance in a Markov chain without mixing

PubMed Central

Chikina, Maria; Frieze, Alan; Pegden, Wesley

2017-01-01

We present a statistical test to detect that a presented state of a reversible Markov chain was not chosen from a stationary distribution. In particular, given a value function for the states of the Markov chain, we would like to show rigorously that the presented state is an outlier with respect to the values, by establishing a p value under the null hypothesis that it was chosen from a stationary distribution of the chain. A simple heuristic used in practice is to sample ranks of states from long random trajectories on the Markov chain and compare these with the rank of the presented state; if the presented state is a 0.1% outlier compared with the sampled ranks (its rank is in the bottom 0.1% of sampled ranks), then this observation should correspond to a p value of 0.001. This significance is not rigorous, however, without good bounds on the mixing time of the Markov chain. Our test is the following: Given the presented state in the Markov chain, take a random walk from the presented state for any number of steps. We prove that observing that the presented state is an ε-outlier on the walk is significant at p=2ε under the null hypothesis that the state was chosen from a stationary distribution. We assume nothing about the Markov chain beyond reversibility and show that significance at p≈ε is best possible in general. We illustrate the use of our test with a potential application to the rigorous detection of gerrymandering in Congressional districting. PMID:28246331

Improved methods for distribution loss evaluation. Volume 1: analytic and evaluative techniques. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flinn, D.G.; Hall, S.; Morris, J.

This volume describes the background research, the application of the proposed loss evaluation techniques, and the results. The research identified present loss calculation methods as appropriate, provided care was taken to represent the various system elements in sufficient detail. The literature search of past methods and typical data revealed that extreme caution in using typical values (load factor, etc.) should be taken to ensure that all factors were referred to the same time base (daily, weekly, etc.). The performance of the method (and computer program) proposed in this project was determined by comparison of results with a rigorous evaluation ofmore » losses on the Salt River Project system. This rigorous evaluation used statistical modeling of the entire system as well as explicit enumeration of all substation and distribution transformers. Further tests were conducted at Public Service Electric and Gas of New Jersey to check the appropriateness of the methods in a northern environment. Finally sensitivity tests indicated data elements inaccuracy of which would most affect the determination of losses using the method developed in this project.« less

Applying Sociocultural Theory to Teaching Statistics for Doctoral Social Work Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mogro-Wilson, Cristina; Reeves, Michael G.; Charter, Mollie Lazar

2015-01-01

This article describes the development of two doctoral-level multivariate statistics courses utilizing sociocultural theory, an integrative pedagogical framework. In the first course, the implementation of sociocultural theory helps to support the students through a rigorous introduction to statistics. The second course involves students…

The epistemological status of general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loehle, Craig

2018-03-01

Forecasts of both likely anthropogenic effects on climate and consequent effects on nature and society are based on large, complex software tools called general circulation models (GCMs). Forecasts generated by GCMs have been used extensively in policy decisions related to climate change. However, the relation between underlying physical theories and results produced by GCMs is unclear. In the case of GCMs, many discretizations and approximations are made, and simulating Earth system processes is far from simple and currently leads to some results with unknown energy balance implications. Statistical testing of GCM forecasts for degree of agreement with data would facilitate assessment of fitness for use. If model results need to be put on an anomaly basis due to model bias, then both visual and quantitative measures of model fit depend strongly on the reference period used for normalization, making testing problematic. Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues. Rigorous reasoning entails carefully quantifying levels of uncertainty.

Statistical Data Analyses of Trace Chemical, Biochemical, and Physical Analytical Signatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Udey, Ruth Norma

Analytical and bioanalytical chemistry measurement results are most meaningful when interpreted using rigorous statistical treatments of the data. The same data set may provide many dimensions of information depending on the questions asked through the applied statistical methods. Three principal projects illustrated the wealth of information gained through the application of statistical data analyses to diverse problems.

Statistical Analysis of the Processes Controlling Choline and Ethanolamine Glycerophospholipid Molecular Species Composition

PubMed Central

Kiebish, Michael A.; Yang, Kui; Han, Xianlin; Gross, Richard W.; Chuang, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

The regulation and maintenance of the cellular lipidome through biosynthetic, remodeling, and catabolic mechanisms are critical for biological homeostasis during development, health and disease. These complex mechanisms control the architectures of lipid molecular species, which have diverse yet highly regulated fatty acid chains at both the sn1 and sn2 positions. Phosphatidylcholine (PC) and phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) serve as the predominant biophysical scaffolds in membranes, acting as reservoirs for potent lipid signals and regulating numerous enzymatic processes. Here we report the first rigorous computational dissection of the mechanisms influencing PC and PE molecular architectures from high-throughput shotgun lipidomic data. Using novel statistical approaches, we have analyzed multidimensional mass spectrometry-based shotgun lipidomic data from developmental mouse heart and mature mouse heart, lung, brain, and liver tissues. We show that in PC and PE, sn1 and sn2 positions are largely independent, though for low abundance species regulatory processes may interact with both the sn1 and sn2 chain simultaneously, leading to cooperative effects. Chains with similar biochemical properties appear to be remodeled similarly. We also see that sn2 positions are more regulated than sn1, and that PC exhibits stronger cooperative effects than PE. A key aspect of our work is a novel statistically rigorous approach to determine cooperativity based on a modified Fisher's exact test using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. This computational approach provides a novel tool for developing mechanistic insight into lipidomic regulation. PMID:22662143

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as `field' or `global' significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

Enumerating Sparse Organisms in Ships’ Ballast Water: Why Counting to 10 Is Not So Easy

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

To reduce ballast water-borne aquatic invasions worldwide, the International Maritime Organization and United States Coast Guard have each proposed discharge standards specifying maximum concentrations of living biota that may be released in ships’ ballast water (BW), but these regulations still lack guidance for standardized type approval and compliance testing of treatment systems. Verifying whether BW meets a discharge standard poses significant challenges. Properly treated BW will contain extremely sparse numbers of live organisms, and robust estimates of rare events require extensive sampling efforts. A balance of analytical rigor and practicality is essential to determine the volume of BW that can be reasonably sampled and processed, yet yield accurate live counts. We applied statistical modeling to a range of sample volumes, plankton concentrations, and regulatory scenarios (i.e., levels of type I and type II errors), and calculated the statistical power of each combination to detect noncompliant discharge concentrations. The model expressly addresses the roles of sampling error, BW volume, and burden of proof on the detection of noncompliant discharges in order to establish a rigorous lower limit of sampling volume. The potential effects of recovery errors (i.e., incomplete recovery and detection of live biota) in relation to sample volume are also discussed. PMID:21434685

Enumerating sparse organisms in ships' ballast water: why counting to 10 is not so easy.

PubMed

Miller, A Whitman; Frazier, Melanie; Smith, George E; Perry, Elgin S; Ruiz, Gregory M; Tamburri, Mario N

2011-04-15

To reduce ballast water-borne aquatic invasions worldwide, the International Maritime Organization and United States Coast Guard have each proposed discharge standards specifying maximum concentrations of living biota that may be released in ships' ballast water (BW), but these regulations still lack guidance for standardized type approval and compliance testing of treatment systems. Verifying whether BW meets a discharge standard poses significant challenges. Properly treated BW will contain extremely sparse numbers of live organisms, and robust estimates of rare events require extensive sampling efforts. A balance of analytical rigor and practicality is essential to determine the volume of BW that can be reasonably sampled and processed, yet yield accurate live counts. We applied statistical modeling to a range of sample volumes, plankton concentrations, and regulatory scenarios (i.e., levels of type I and type II errors), and calculated the statistical power of each combination to detect noncompliant discharge concentrations. The model expressly addresses the roles of sampling error, BW volume, and burden of proof on the detection of noncompliant discharges in order to establish a rigorous lower limit of sampling volume. The potential effects of recovery errors (i.e., incomplete recovery and detection of live biota) in relation to sample volume are also discussed.

Improvement of IFNγ ELISPOT Performance Following Overnight Resting of Frozen PBMC Samples Confirmed Through Rigorous Statistical Analysis

PubMed Central

Santos, Radleigh; Buying, Alcinette; Sabri, Nazila; Yu, John; Gringeri, Anthony; Bender, James; Janetzki, Sylvia; Pinilla, Clemencia; Judkowski, Valeria A.

2014-01-01

Immune monitoring of functional responses is a fundamental parameter to establish correlates of protection in clinical trials evaluating vaccines and therapies to boost antigen-specific responses. The IFNγ ELISPOT assay is a well-standardized and validated method for the determination of functional IFNγ-producing T-cells in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC); however, its performance greatly depends on the quality and integrity of the cryopreserved PBMC. Here, we investigate the effect of overnight (ON) resting of the PBMC on the detection of CD8-restricted peptide-specific responses by IFNγ ELISPOT. The study used PBMC from healthy donors to evaluate the CD8 T-cell response to five pooled or individual HLA-A2 viral peptides. The results were analyzed using a modification of the existing distribution free resampling (DFR) recommended for the analysis of ELISPOT data to ensure the most rigorous possible standard of significance. The results of the study demonstrate that ON resting of PBMC samples prior to IFNγ ELISPOT increases both the magnitude and the statistical significance of the responses. In addition, a comparison of the results with a 13-day preculture of PBMC with the peptides before testing demonstrates that ON resting is sufficient for the efficient evaluation of immune functioning. PMID:25546016

Statistical model of exotic rotational correlations in emergent space-time

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, Craig; Kwon, Ohkyung; Richardson, Jonathan

2017-06-06

A statistical model is formulated to compute exotic rotational correlations that arise as inertial frames and causal structure emerge on large scales from entangled Planck scale quantum systems. Noncommutative quantum dynamics are represented by random transverse displacements that respect causal symmetry. Entanglement is represented by covariance of these displacements in Planck scale intervals defined by future null cones of events on an observer's world line. Light that propagates in a nonradial direction inherits a projected component of the exotic rotational correlation that accumulates as a random walk in phase. A calculation of the projection and accumulation leads to exact predictionsmore » for statistical properties of exotic Planck scale correlations in an interferometer of any configuration. The cross-covariance for two nearly co-located interferometers is shown to depart only slightly from the autocovariance. Specific examples are computed for configurations that approximate realistic experiments, and show that the model can be rigorously tested.« less

Rigorous Statistical Bounds in Uncertainty Quantification for One-Layer Turbulent Geophysical Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Di; Majda, Andrew J.

2018-04-01

Statistical bounds controlling the total fluctuations in mean and variance about a basic steady-state solution are developed for the truncated barotropic flow over topography. Statistical ensemble prediction is an important topic in weather and climate research. Here, the evolution of an ensemble of trajectories is considered using statistical instability analysis and is compared and contrasted with the classical deterministic instability for the growth of perturbations in one pointwise trajectory. The maximum growth of the total statistics in fluctuations is derived relying on the statistical conservation principle of the pseudo-energy. The saturation bound of the statistical mean fluctuation and variance in the unstable regimes with non-positive-definite pseudo-energy is achieved by linking with a class of stable reference states and minimizing the stable statistical energy. Two cases with dependence on initial statistical uncertainty and on external forcing and dissipation are compared and unified under a consistent statistical stability framework. The flow structures and statistical stability bounds are illustrated and verified by numerical simulations among a wide range of dynamical regimes, where subtle transient statistical instability exists in general with positive short-time exponential growth in the covariance even when the pseudo-energy is positive-definite. Among the various scenarios in this paper, there exist strong forward and backward energy exchanges between different scales which are estimated by the rigorous statistical bounds.

Peer-reviewed and unbiased research, rather than ‘sound science’, should be used to evaluate endocrine-disrupting chemicals

PubMed Central

Trasande, Leonardo; Vandenberg, Laura N; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre; Myers, John Peterson; Slama, Remy; Saal, Frederick vom; Zoeller, Robert Thomas

2017-01-01

Evidence increasingly confirms that synthetic chemicals disrupt the endocrine system and contribute to disease and disability across the lifespan. Despite a United Nations Environment Programme/WHO report affirmed by over 100 countries at the Fourth International Conference on Chemicals Management, ‘manufactured doubt’ continues to be cast as a cloud over rigorous, peer-reviewed and independently funded scientific data. This study describes the sources of doubt and their social costs, and suggested courses of action by policymakers to prevent disease and disability. The problem is largely based on the available data, which are all too limited. Rigorous testing programmes should not simply focus on oestrogen, androgen and thyroid. Tests should have proper statistical power. ‘Good laboratory practice’ (GLP) hardly represents a proper or even gold standard for laboratory studies of endocrine disruption. Studies should be evaluated with regard to the contamination of negative controls, responsiveness to positive controls and dissection techniques. Flaws in many GLP studies have been identified, yet regulatory agencies rely on these flawed studies. Peer-reviewed and unbiased research, rather than ‘sound science’, should be used to evaluate endocrine-disrupting chemicals. PMID:27417427

A Randomized Study of How Physicians Interpret Research Funding Disclosures

PubMed Central

Kesselheim, Aaron S.; Robertson, Christopher T.; Myers, Jessica A.; Rose, Susannah L.; Gillet, Victoria; Ross, Kathryn M.; Glynn, Robert J.; Joffe, Steven; Avorn, Jerry

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND The effects of clinical-trial funding on the interpretation of trial results are poorly understood. We examined how such support affects physicians’ reactions to trials with a high, medium, or low level of methodologic rigor. METHODS We presented 503 board-certified internists with abstracts that we designed describing clinical trials of three hypothetical drugs. The trials had high, medium, or low methodologic rigor, and each report included one of three support disclosures: funding from a pharmaceutical company, NIH funding, or none. For both factors studied (rigor and funding), one of the three possible variations was randomly selected for inclusion in the abstracts. Follow-up questions assessed the physicians’ impressions of the trials’ rigor, their confidence in the results, and their willingness to prescribe the drugs. RESULTS The 269 respondents (53.5% response rate) perceived the level of study rigor accurately. Physicians reported that they would be less willing to prescribe drugs tested in low-rigor trials than those tested in medium-rigor trials (odds ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 0.89; P = 0.008) and would be more willing to prescribe drugs tested in high-rigor trials than those tested in medium-rigor trials (odds ratio, 3.07; 95% CI, 2.18 to 4.32; P<0.001). Disclosure of industry funding, as compared with no disclosure of funding, led physicians to downgrade the rigor of a trial (odds ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.87; P = 0.006), their confidence in the results (odds ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.98; P = 0.04), and their willingness to prescribe the hypothetical drugs (odds ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.94; P = 0.02). Physicians were half as willing to prescribe drugs studied in industry-funded trials as they were to prescribe drugs studied in NIH-funded trials (odds ratio, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.71; P<0.001). These effects were consistent across all levels of methodologic rigor. CONCLUSIONS Physicians discriminate among trials of varying degrees of rigor, but industry sponsorship negatively influences their perception of methodologic quality and reduces their willingness to believe and act on trial findings, independently of the trial’s quality. These effects may influence the translation of clinical research into practice. PMID:22992075

Decomposing the Site Frequency Spectrum: The Impact of Tree Topology on Neutrality Tests.

PubMed

Ferretti, Luca; Ledda, Alice; Wiehe, Thomas; Achaz, Guillaume; Ramos-Onsins, Sebastian E

2017-09-01

We investigate the dependence of the site frequency spectrum on the topological structure of genealogical trees. We show that basic population genetic statistics, for instance, estimators of θ or neutrality tests such as Tajima's D , can be decomposed into components of waiting times between coalescent events and of tree topology. Our results clarify the relative impact of the two components on these statistics. We provide a rigorous interpretation of positive or negative values of an important class of neutrality tests in terms of the underlying tree shape. In particular, we show that values of Tajima's D and Fay and Wu's H depend in a direct way on a peculiar measure of tree balance, which is mostly determined by the root balance of the tree. We present a new test for selection in the same class as Fay and Wu's H and discuss its interpretation and power. Finally, we determine the trees corresponding to extreme expected values of these neutrality tests and present formulas for these extreme values as a function of sample size and number of segregating sites. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Trends in Mediation Analysis in Nursing Research: Improving Current Practice.

PubMed

Hertzog, Melody

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to describe common approaches used by nursing researchers to test mediation models and evaluate them within the context of current methodological advances. MEDLINE was used to locate studies testing a mediation model and published from 2004 to 2015 in nursing journals. Design (experimental/correlation, cross-sectional/longitudinal, model complexity) and analysis (method, inclusion of test of mediated effect, violations/discussion of assumptions, sample size/power) characteristics were coded for 456 studies. General trends were identified using descriptive statistics. Consistent with findings of reviews in other disciplines, evidence was found that nursing researchers may not be aware of the strong assumptions and serious limitations of their analyses. Suggestions for strengthening the rigor of such studies and an overview of current methods for testing more complex models, including longitudinal mediation processes, are presented.

Quantification and statistical significance analysis of group separation in NMR-based metabonomics studies

PubMed Central

Goodpaster, Aaron M.; Kennedy, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Currently, no standard metrics are used to quantify cluster separation in PCA or PLS-DA scores plots for metabonomics studies or to determine if cluster separation is statistically significant. Lack of such measures makes it virtually impossible to compare independent or inter-laboratory studies and can lead to confusion in the metabonomics literature when authors putatively identify metabolites distinguishing classes of samples based on visual and qualitative inspection of scores plots that exhibit marginal separation. While previous papers have addressed quantification of cluster separation in PCA scores plots, none have advocated routine use of a quantitative measure of separation that is supported by a standard and rigorous assessment of whether or not the cluster separation is statistically significant. Here quantification and statistical significance of separation of group centroids in PCA and PLS-DA scores plots are considered. The Mahalanobis distance is used to quantify the distance between group centroids, and the two-sample Hotelling's T2 test is computed for the data, related to an F-statistic, and then an F-test is applied to determine if the cluster separation is statistically significant. We demonstrate the value of this approach using four datasets containing various degrees of separation, ranging from groups that had no apparent visual cluster separation to groups that had no visual cluster overlap. Widespread adoption of such concrete metrics to quantify and evaluate the statistical significance of PCA and PLS-DA cluster separation would help standardize reporting of metabonomics data. PMID:26246647

Genomic similarity and kernel methods I: advancements by building on mathematical and statistical foundations.

PubMed

Schaid, Daniel J

2010-01-01

Measures of genomic similarity are the basis of many statistical analytic methods. We review the mathematical and statistical basis of similarity methods, particularly based on kernel methods. A kernel function converts information for a pair of subjects to a quantitative value representing either similarity (larger values meaning more similar) or distance (smaller values meaning more similar), with the requirement that it must create a positive semidefinite matrix when applied to all pairs of subjects. This review emphasizes the wide range of statistical methods and software that can be used when similarity is based on kernel methods, such as nonparametric regression, linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models, hierarchical models, score statistics, and support vector machines. The mathematical rigor for these methods is summarized, as is the mathematical framework for making kernels. This review provides a framework to move from intuitive and heuristic approaches to define genomic similarities to more rigorous methods that can take advantage of powerful statistical modeling and existing software. A companion paper reviews novel approaches to creating kernels that might be useful for genomic analyses, providing insights with examples [1]. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Rigorous force field optimization principles based on statistical distance minimization

DOE PAGES

Vlcek, Lukas; Chialvo, Ariel A.

2015-10-12

We use the concept of statistical distance to define a measure of distinguishability between a pair of statistical mechanical systems, i.e., a model and its target, and show that its minimization leads to general convergence of the model’s static measurable properties to those of the target. Here we exploit this feature to define a rigorous basis for the development of accurate and robust effective molecular force fields that are inherently compatible with coarse-grained experimental data. The new model optimization principles and their efficient implementation are illustrated through selected examples, whose outcome demonstrates the higher robustness and predictive accuracy of themore » approach compared to other currently used methods, such as force matching and relative entropy minimization. We also discuss relations between the newly developed principles and established thermodynamic concepts, which include the Gibbs-Bogoliubov inequality and the thermodynamic length.« less

Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Testing the Standard ΛCDM + Halo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Manodeep; Berlind, Andreas A.; McBride, Cameron; Scoccimarro, Roman

2015-01-01

The large-scale distribution of galaxies can be explained fairly simply by assuming (i) a cosmological model, which determines the dark matter halo distribution, and (ii) a simple connection between galaxies and the halos they inhabit. This conceptually simple framework, called the halo model, has been remarkably successful at reproducing the clustering of galaxies on all scales, as observed in various galaxy redshift surveys. However, none of these previous studies have carefully modeled the systematics and thus truly tested the halo model in a statistically rigorous sense. We present a new accurate and fully numerical halo model framework and test it against clustering measurements from two luminosity samples of galaxies drawn from the SDSS DR7. We show that the simple ΛCDM cosmology + halo model is not able to simultaneously reproduce the galaxy projected correlation function and the group multiplicity function. In particular, the more luminous sample shows significant tension with theory. We discuss the implications of our findings and how this work paves the way for constraining galaxy formation by accurate simultaneous modeling of multiple galaxy clustering statistics.

Does metacognitive strategy instruction improve impaired receptive cognitive-communication skills following acquired brain injury?

PubMed

Copley, Anna; Smith, Kathleen; Savill, Katelyn; Finch, Emma

2015-01-01

To investigate if metacognitive strategy instruction (MSI) improves the receptive language skills of adults with cognitive-communication disorders secondary to acquired brain injury (ABI). An ABA intervention programme was implemented with eight adults with ABI, aged 25-70 years. The Measure of Cognitive-Linguistic Abilities (MCLA) was administered at baseline and following treatment. The treatment employed in this study involved three components: individual goal-based therapy, group remediation therapy using self-instruction and home practice. No receptive language sub-tests of the MCLA reached statistical significance. However, participants' raw score improvements in receptive language sub-tests indicated that MSI may be effective at remediating CCDs following ABI. Preliminary findings indicate that MSI may be effective in improving receptive language skills in adults with CCDs following ABI. Further research involving a more rigorous study, a larger sample size and a more reliable outcome measure is necessary and may provide statistically significant evidence for the effectiveness of MSI for remediating receptive language disorders.

Computer experimental analysis of the CHP performance of a 100 kW e SOFC Field Unit by a factorial design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calì, M.; Santarelli, M. G. L.; Leone, P.

Gas Turbine Technologies (GTT) and Politecnico di Torino, both located in Torino (Italy), have been involved in the design and installation of a SOFC laboratory in order to analyse the operation, in cogenerative configuration, of the CHP 100 kW e SOFC Field Unit, built by Siemens-Westinghouse Power Corporation (SWPC), which is at present (May 2005) starting its operation and which will supply electric and thermal power to the GTT factory. In order to take the better advantage from the analysis of the on-site operation, and especially to correctly design the scheduled experimental tests on the system, we developed a mathematical model and run a simulated experimental campaign, applying a rigorous statistical approach to the analysis of the results. The aim of this work is the computer experimental analysis, through a statistical methodology (2 k factorial experiments), of the CHP 100 performance. First, the mathematical model has been calibrated with the results acquired during the first CHP100 demonstration at EDB/ELSAM in Westerwoort. After, the simulated tests have been performed in the form of computer experimental session, and the measurement uncertainties have been simulated with perturbation imposed to the model independent variables. The statistical methodology used for the computer experimental analysis is the factorial design (Yates' Technique): using the ANOVA technique the effect of the main independent variables (air utilization factor U ox, fuel utilization factor U F, internal fuel and air preheating and anodic recycling flow rate) has been investigated in a rigorous manner. Analysis accounts for the effects of parameters on stack electric power, thermal recovered power, single cell voltage, cell operative temperature, consumed fuel flow and steam to carbon ratio. Each main effect and interaction effect of parameters is shown with particular attention on generated electric power and stack heat recovered.

Origin of the spike-timing-dependent plasticity rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Myoung Won; Choi, M. Y.

2016-08-01

A biological synapse changes its efficacy depending on the difference between pre- and post-synaptic spike timings. Formulating spike-timing-dependent interactions in terms of the path integral, we establish a neural-network model, which makes it possible to predict relevant quantities rigorously by means of standard methods in statistical mechanics and field theory. In particular, the biological synaptic plasticity rule is shown to emerge as the optimal form for minimizing the free energy. It is further revealed that maximization of the entropy of neural activities gives rise to the competitive behavior of biological learning. This demonstrates that statistical mechanics helps to understand rigorously key characteristic behaviors of a neural network, thus providing the possibility of physics serving as a useful and relevant framework for probing life.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K.

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors.

PubMed

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Bayesian Reconstruction of Disease Outbreaks by Combining Epidemiologic and Genomic Data

PubMed Central

Jombart, Thibaut; Cori, Anne; Didelot, Xavier; Cauchemez, Simon; Fraser, Christophe; Ferguson, Neil

2014-01-01

Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees (“who infected whom”) from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach identifies likely transmission events and infers dates of infections, unobserved cases and separate introductions of the disease. It also proves useful for inferring numbers of secondary infections and identifying heterogeneous infectivity and super-spreaders. After testing our approach using simulations, we illustrate the method with the analysis of the beginning of the 2003 Singaporean outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), providing new insights into the early stage of this epidemic. Our approach is the first tool for disease outbreak reconstruction from genetic data widely available as free software, the R package outbreaker. It is applicable to various densely sampled epidemics, and improves previous approaches by detecting unobserved and imported cases, as well as allowing multiple introductions of the pathogen. Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments. PMID:24465202

Method for data analysis in different institutions: example of image guidance of prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Piotrowski, T; Rodrigues, G; Bajon, T; Yartsev, S

2014-03-01

Multi-institutional collaborations allow for more information to be analyzed but the data from different sources may vary in the subgroup sizes and/or conditions of measuring. Rigorous statistical analysis is required for pooling the data in a larger set. Careful comparison of all the components of the data acquisition is indispensable: identical conditions allow for enlargement of the database with improved statistical analysis, clearly defined differences provide opportunity for establishing a better practice. The optimal sequence of required normality, asymptotic normality, and independence tests is proposed. An example of analysis of six subgroups of position corrections in three directions obtained during image guidance procedures for 216 prostate cancer patients from two institutions is presented. Copyright © 2013 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying On-Orbit Test Targets for Space Fence Operational Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechkis, D.; Pacheco, N.; Botting, T.

2014-09-01

Space Fence will be an integrated system of two ground-based, S-band (2 to 4 GHz) phased-array radars located in Kwajalein and perhaps Western Australia [1]. Space Fence will cooperate with other Space Surveillance Network sensors to provide space object tracking and radar characterization data to support U.S. Strategic Command space object catalog maintenance and other space situational awareness needs. We present a rigorous statistical test design intended to test Space Fence to the letter of the program requirements as well as to characterize the system performance across the entire operational envelope. The design uses altitude, size, and inclination as independent factors in statistical tests of dependent variables (e.g., observation accuracy) linked to requirements. The analysis derives the type and number of necessary test targets. Comparing the resulting sample sizes with the number of currently known targets, we identify those areas where modelling and simulation methods are needed. Assuming hypothetical Kwajalein radar coverage and a conservative number of radar passes per object per day, we conclude that tests involving real-world space objects should take no more than 25 days to evaluate all operational requirements; almost 60 percent of the requirements can be tested in a single day and nearly 90 percent can be tested in one week or less. Reference: [1] L. Haines and P. Phu, Space Fence PDR Concept Development Phase, 2011 AMOS Conference Technical Papers.

QTest: Quantitative Testing of Theories of Binary Choice.

PubMed

Regenwetter, Michel; Davis-Stober, Clintin P; Lim, Shiau Hong; Guo, Ying; Popova, Anna; Zwilling, Chris; Cha, Yun-Shil; Messner, William

2014-01-01

The goal of this paper is to make modeling and quantitative testing accessible to behavioral decision researchers interested in substantive questions. We provide a novel, rigorous, yet very general, quantitative diagnostic framework for testing theories of binary choice. This permits the nontechnical scholar to proceed far beyond traditionally rather superficial methods of analysis, and it permits the quantitatively savvy scholar to triage theoretical proposals before investing effort into complex and specialized quantitative analyses. Our theoretical framework links static algebraic decision theory with observed variability in behavioral binary choice data. The paper is supplemented with a custom-designed public-domain statistical analysis package, the QTest software. We illustrate our approach with a quantitative analysis using published laboratory data, including tests of novel versions of "Random Cumulative Prospect Theory." A major asset of the approach is the potential to distinguish decision makers who have a fixed preference and commit errors in observed choices from decision makers who waver in their preferences.

[Adequate application of quantitative and qualitative statistic analytic methods in acupuncture clinical trials].

PubMed

Tan, Ming T; Liu, Jian-ping; Lao, Lixing

2012-08-01

Recently, proper use of the statistical methods in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) randomized controlled trials (RCTs) has received increased attention. Statistical inference based on hypothesis testing is the foundation of clinical trials and evidence-based medicine. In this article, the authors described the methodological differences between literature published in Chinese and Western journals in the design and analysis of acupuncture RCTs and the application of basic statistical principles. In China, qualitative analysis method has been widely used in acupuncture and TCM clinical trials, while the between-group quantitative analysis methods on clinical symptom scores are commonly used in the West. The evidence for and against these analytical differences were discussed based on the data of RCTs assessing acupuncture for pain relief. The authors concluded that although both methods have their unique advantages, quantitative analysis should be used as the primary analysis while qualitative analysis can be a secondary criterion for analysis. The purpose of this paper is to inspire further discussion of such special issues in clinical research design and thus contribute to the increased scientific rigor of TCM research.

Statistical Model Selection for TID Hardness Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladbury, R.; Gorelick, J. L.; McClure, S.

2010-01-01

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) methodologies against Total Ionizing Dose (TID) degradation impose rigorous statistical treatments for data from a part's Radiation Lot Acceptance Test (RLAT) and/or its historical performance. However, no similar methods exist for using "similarity" data - that is, data for similar parts fabricated in the same process as the part under qualification. This is despite the greater difficulty and potential risk in interpreting of similarity data. In this work, we develop methods to disentangle part-to-part, lot-to-lot and part-type-to-part-type variation. The methods we develop apply not just for qualification decisions, but also for quality control and detection of process changes and other "out-of-family" behavior. We begin by discussing the data used in ·the study and the challenges of developing a statistic providing a meaningful measure of degradation across multiple part types, each with its own performance specifications. We then develop analysis techniques and apply them to the different data sets.

Statistical Analyses Comparing Prismatic Magnetite Crystals in ALH84001 Carbonate Globules with those from the Terrestrial Magnetotactic Bacteria Strain MV-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas-Keprta, Kathie L.; Clemett, Simon J.; Bazylinski, Dennis A.; Kirschvink, Joseph L.; McKay, David S.; Wentworth, Susan J.; Vali, H.; Gibson, Everett K.

2000-01-01

Here we use rigorous mathematical modeling to compare ALH84001 prismatic magnetites with those produced by terrestrial magnetotactic bacteria, MV-1. We find that this subset of the Martian magnetites appears to be statistically indistinguishable from those of MV-1.

Peer-reviewed and unbiased research, rather than 'sound science', should be used to evaluate endocrine-disrupting chemicals.

PubMed

Trasande, Leonardo; Vandenberg, Laura N; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre; Myers, John Peterson; Slama, Remy; Vom Saal, Frederick; Zoeller, Robert Thomas

2016-11-01

Evidence increasingly confirms that synthetic chemicals disrupt the endocrine system and contribute to disease and disability across the lifespan. Despite a United Nations Environment Programme/WHO report affirmed by over 100 countries at the Fourth International Conference on Chemicals Management, 'manufactured doubt' continues to be cast as a cloud over rigorous, peer-reviewed and independently funded scientific data. This study describes the sources of doubt and their social costs, and suggested courses of action by policymakers to prevent disease and disability. The problem is largely based on the available data, which are all too limited. Rigorous testing programmes should not simply focus on oestrogen, androgen and thyroid. Tests should have proper statistical power. 'Good laboratory practice' (GLP) hardly represents a proper or even gold standard for laboratory studies of endocrine disruption. Studies should be evaluated with regard to the contamination of negative controls, responsiveness to positive controls and dissection techniques. Flaws in many GLP studies have been identified, yet regulatory agencies rely on these flawed studies. Peer-reviewed and unbiased research, rather than 'sound science', should be used to evaluate endocrine-disrupting chemicals. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Rasch analysis suggested three unidimensional domains for Affiliate Stigma Scale: additional psychometric evaluation.

PubMed

Chang, Chih-Cheng; Su, Jian-An; Tsai, Ching-Shu; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Liu, Jiun-Horng; Lin, Chung-Ying

2015-06-01

To examine the psychometrics of the Affiliate Stigma Scale using rigorous psychometric analysis: classical test theory (CTT) (traditional) and Rasch analysis (modern). Differential item functioning (DIF) items were also tested using Rasch analysis. Caregivers of relatives with mental illness (n = 453; mean age: 53.29 ± 13.50 years) were recruited from southern Taiwan. Each participant filled out four questionnaires: Affiliate Stigma Scale, Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, Beck Anxiety Inventory, and one background information sheet. CTT analyses showed that the Affiliate Stigma Scale had satisfactory internal consistency (α = 0.85-0.94) and concurrent validity (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale: r = -0.52 to -0.46; Beck Anxiety Inventory: r = 0.27-0.34). Rasch analyses supported the unidimensionality of three domains in the Affiliate Stigma Scale and indicated four DIF items (affect domain: 1; cognitive domain: 3) across gender. Our findings, based on rigorous statistical analysis, verified the psychometrics of the Affiliate Stigma Scale and reported its DIF items. We conclude that the three domains of the Affiliate Stigma Scale can be separately used and are suitable for measuring the affiliate stigma of caregivers of relatives with mental illness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical testing and power analysis for brain-wide association study.

PubMed

Gong, Weikang; Wan, Lin; Lu, Wenlian; Ma, Liang; Cheng, Fan; Cheng, Wei; Grünewald, Stefan; Feng, Jianfeng

2018-04-05

The identification of connexel-wise associations, which involves examining functional connectivities between pairwise voxels across the whole brain, is both statistically and computationally challenging. Although such a connexel-wise methodology has recently been adopted by brain-wide association studies (BWAS) to identify connectivity changes in several mental disorders, such as schizophrenia, autism and depression, the multiple correction and power analysis methods designed specifically for connexel-wise analysis are still lacking. Therefore, we herein report the development of a rigorous statistical framework for connexel-wise significance testing based on the Gaussian random field theory. It includes controlling the family-wise error rate (FWER) of multiple hypothesis testings using topological inference methods, and calculating power and sample size for a connexel-wise study. Our theoretical framework can control the false-positive rate accurately, as validated empirically using two resting-state fMRI datasets. Compared with Bonferroni correction and false discovery rate (FDR), it can reduce false-positive rate and increase statistical power by appropriately utilizing the spatial information of fMRI data. Importantly, our method bypasses the need of non-parametric permutation to correct for multiple comparison, thus, it can efficiently tackle large datasets with high resolution fMRI images. The utility of our method is shown in a case-control study. Our approach can identify altered functional connectivities in a major depression disorder dataset, whereas existing methods fail. A software package is available at https://github.com/weikanggong/BWAS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical hydrodynamics and related problems in spaces of probability measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dostoglou, Stamatios

2017-11-01

A rigorous theory of statistical solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations, suitable for exploring Kolmogorov's ideas, has been developed by M.I. Vishik and A.V. Fursikov, culminating in their monograph "Mathematical problems of Statistical Hydromechanics." We review some progress made in recent years following this approach, with emphasis on problems concerning the correlation of velocities and corresponding questions in the space of probability measures on Hilbert spaces.

Drug safety data mining with a tree-based scan statistic.

PubMed

Kulldorff, Martin; Dashevsky, Inna; Avery, Taliser R; Chan, Arnold K; Davis, Robert L; Graham, David; Platt, Richard; Andrade, Susan E; Boudreau, Denise; Gunter, Margaret J; Herrinton, Lisa J; Pawloski, Pamala A; Raebel, Marsha A; Roblin, Douglas; Brown, Jeffrey S

2013-05-01

In post-marketing drug safety surveillance, data mining can potentially detect rare but serious adverse events. Assessing an entire collection of drug-event pairs is traditionally performed on a predefined level of granularity. It is unknown a priori whether a drug causes a very specific or a set of related adverse events, such as mitral valve disorders, all valve disorders, or different types of heart disease. This methodological paper evaluates the tree-based scan statistic data mining method to enhance drug safety surveillance. We use a three-million-member electronic health records database from the HMO Research Network. Using the tree-based scan statistic, we assess the safety of selected antifungal and diabetes drugs, simultaneously evaluating overlapping diagnosis groups at different granularity levels, adjusting for multiple testing. Expected and observed adverse event counts were adjusted for age, sex, and health plan, producing a log likelihood ratio test statistic. Out of 732 evaluated disease groupings, 24 were statistically significant, divided among 10 non-overlapping disease categories. Five of the 10 signals are known adverse effects, four are likely due to confounding by indication, while one may warrant further investigation. The tree-based scan statistic can be successfully applied as a data mining tool in drug safety surveillance using observational data. The total number of statistical signals was modest and does not imply a causal relationship. Rather, data mining results should be used to generate candidate drug-event pairs for rigorous epidemiological studies to evaluate the individual and comparative safety profiles of drugs. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Harm Done to Reproducibility by the Culture of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L

2017-09-15

In the last few years, stakeholders in the scientific community have raised alarms about a perceived lack of reproducibility of scientific results. In reaction, guidelines for journals have been promulgated and grant applicants have been asked to address the rigor and reproducibility of their proposed projects. Neither solution addresses a primary culprit, which is the culture of null hypothesis significance testing that dominates statistical analysis and inference. In an innovative research enterprise, selection of results for further evaluation based on null hypothesis significance testing is doomed to yield a low proportion of reproducible results and a high proportion of effects that are initially overestimated. In addition, the culture of null hypothesis significance testing discourages quantitative adjustments to account for systematic errors and quantitative incorporation of prior information. These strategies would otherwise improve reproducibility and have not been previously proposed in the widely cited literature on this topic. Without discarding the culture of null hypothesis significance testing and implementing these alternative methods for statistical analysis and inference, all other strategies for improving reproducibility will yield marginal gains at best. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Boston Naming Test Discontinuation Rule: "Rigorous" versus "Lenient" Interpretations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferman, Tanis J.; Ivnik, Robert J.; Lucas, John A.

1998-01-01

Two interpretations of the Boston Naming Test (BNT) (E. Kaplan, H. Goodglass, and S. Weintraub, 1983) discontinuation rule of six consecutive failures were found in BNT use with 655 normal older adults and 140 people with Alzheimer's disease. Differences between lenient and rigorous interpretations of responses could have impact on…

Time Scale Optimization and the Hunt for Astronomical Cycles in Deep Time Strata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, Stephen R.

2016-04-01

A valuable attribute of astrochronology is the direct link between chronometer and climate change, providing a remarkable opportunity to constrain the evolution of the surficial Earth System. Consequently, the hunt for astronomical cycles in strata has spurred the development of a rich conceptual framework for climatic/oceanographic change, and has allowed exploration of the geologic record with unprecedented temporal resolution. Accompanying these successes, however, has been a persistent skepticism about appropriate astrochronologic testing and circular reasoning: how does one reliably test for astronomical cycles in stratigraphic data, especially when time is poorly constrained? From this perspective, it would seem that the merits and promise of astrochronology (e.g., a geologic time scale measured in ≤400 kyr increments) also serves as its Achilles heel, if the confirmation of such short rhythms defies rigorous statistical testing. To address these statistical challenges in astrochronologic testing, a new approach has been developed that (1) explicitly evaluates time scale uncertainty, (2) is resilient to common problems associated with spectrum confidence level assessment and 'multiple testing', and (3) achieves high statistical power under a wide range of conditions (it can identify astronomical cycles when present in data). Designated TimeOpt (for "time scale optimization"; Meyers 2015), the method employs a probabilistic linear regression model framework to investigate amplitude modulation and frequency ratios (bundling) in stratigraphic data, while simultaneously determining the optimal time scale. This presentation will review the TimeOpt method, and demonstrate how the flexible statistical framework can be further extended to evaluate (and optimize upon) complex sedimentation rate models, enhancing the statistical power of the approach, and addressing the challenge of unsteady sedimentation. Meyers, S. R. (2015), The evaluation of eccentricity-related amplitude modulation and bundling in paleoclimate data: An inverse approach for astrochronologic testing and time scale optimization, Paleoceanography, 30, doi:10.1002/ 2015PA002850.

Resemblance profiles as clustering decision criteria: Estimating statistical power, error, and correspondence for a hypothesis test for multivariate structure.

PubMed

Kilborn, Joshua P; Jones, David L; Peebles, Ernst B; Naar, David F

2017-04-01

Clustering data continues to be a highly active area of data analysis, and resemblance profiles are being incorporated into ecological methodologies as a hypothesis testing-based approach to clustering multivariate data. However, these new clustering techniques have not been rigorously tested to determine the performance variability based on the algorithm's assumptions or any underlying data structures. Here, we use simulation studies to estimate the statistical error rates for the hypothesis test for multivariate structure based on dissimilarity profiles (DISPROF). We concurrently tested a widely used algorithm that employs the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA) to estimate the proficiency of clustering with DISPROF as a decision criterion. We simulated unstructured multivariate data from different probability distributions with increasing numbers of objects and descriptors, and grouped data with increasing overlap, overdispersion for ecological data, and correlation among descriptors within groups. Using simulated data, we measured the resolution and correspondence of clustering solutions achieved by DISPROF with UPGMA against the reference grouping partitions used to simulate the structured test datasets. Our results highlight the dynamic interactions between dataset dimensionality, group overlap, and the properties of the descriptors within a group (i.e., overdispersion or correlation structure) that are relevant to resemblance profiles as a clustering criterion for multivariate data. These methods are particularly useful for multivariate ecological datasets that benefit from distance-based statistical analyses. We propose guidelines for using DISPROF as a clustering decision tool that will help future users avoid potential pitfalls during the application of methods and the interpretation of results.

Quantifying falsifiability of scientific theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemenman, Ilya

I argue that the notion of falsifiability, a key concept in defining a valid scientific theory, can be quantified using Bayesian Model Selection, which is a standard tool in modern statistics. This relates falsifiability to the quantitative version of the statistical Occam's razor, and allows transforming some long-running arguments about validity of scientific theories from philosophical discussions to rigorous mathematical calculations.

Effects of Pre and Post-Rigor Marinade Injection on Some Quality Parameters of Longissimus Dorsi Muscles

PubMed Central

Fadıloğlu, Eylem Ezgi; Serdaroğlu, Meltem

2018-01-01

Abstract This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of pre and post-rigor marinade injections on some quality parameters of Longissimus dorsi (LD) muscles. Three marinade formulations were prepared with 2% NaCl, 2% NaCl+0.5 M lactic acid and 2% NaCl+0.5 M sodium lactate. In this study marinade uptake, pH, free water, cooking loss, drip loss and color properties were analyzed. Injection time had significant effect on marinade uptake levels of samples. Regardless of marinate formulation, marinade uptake of pre-rigor samples injected with marinade solutions were higher than post rigor samples. Injection of sodium lactate increased pH values of samples whereas lactic acid injection decreased pH. Marinade treatment and storage period had significant effect on cooking loss. At each evaluation period interaction between marinade treatment and injection time showed different effect on free water content. Storage period and marinade application had significant effect on drip loss values. Drip loss in all samples increased during the storage. During all storage days, lowest CIE L* value was found in pre-rigor samples injected with sodium lactate. Lactic acid injection caused color fade in pre-rigor and post-rigor samples. Interaction between marinade treatment and storage period was found statistically significant (p<0.05). At day 0 and 3, the lowest CIE b* values obtained pre-rigor samples injected with sodium lactate and there were no differences were found in other samples. At day 6, no significant differences were found in CIE b* values of all samples. PMID:29805282

Effects of Pre and Post-Rigor Marinade Injection on Some Quality Parameters of Longissimus Dorsi Muscles.

PubMed

Fadıloğlu, Eylem Ezgi; Serdaroğlu, Meltem

2018-04-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of pre and post-rigor marinade injections on some quality parameters of Longissimus dorsi (LD) muscles. Three marinade formulations were prepared with 2% NaCl, 2% NaCl+0.5 M lactic acid and 2% NaCl+0.5 M sodium lactate. In this study marinade uptake, pH, free water, cooking loss, drip loss and color properties were analyzed. Injection time had significant effect on marinade uptake levels of samples. Regardless of marinate formulation, marinade uptake of pre-rigor samples injected with marinade solutions were higher than post rigor samples. Injection of sodium lactate increased pH values of samples whereas lactic acid injection decreased pH. Marinade treatment and storage period had significant effect on cooking loss. At each evaluation period interaction between marinade treatment and injection time showed different effect on free water content. Storage period and marinade application had significant effect on drip loss values. Drip loss in all samples increased during the storage. During all storage days, lowest CIE L* value was found in pre-rigor samples injected with sodium lactate. Lactic acid injection caused color fade in pre-rigor and post-rigor samples. Interaction between marinade treatment and storage period was found statistically significant ( p <0.05). At day 0 and 3, the lowest CIE b* values obtained pre-rigor samples injected with sodium lactate and there were no differences were found in other samples. At day 6, no significant differences were found in CIE b* values of all samples.

Parameter inference in small world network disease models with approximate Bayesian Computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, David M.; Allingham, David; Lee, Heung Wing Joseph; Small, Michael

2010-02-01

Small world network models have been effective in capturing the variable behaviour of reported case data of the SARS coronavirus outbreak in Hong Kong during 2003. Simulations of these models have previously been realized using informed “guesses” of the proposed model parameters and tested for consistency with the reported data by surrogate analysis. In this paper we attempt to provide statistically rigorous parameter distributions using Approximate Bayesian Computation sampling methods. We find that such sampling schemes are a useful framework for fitting parameters of stochastic small world network models where simulation of the system is straightforward but expressing a likelihood is cumbersome.

Marginal evidence for cosmic acceleration from Type Ia supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, J. T.; Guffanti, A.; Sarkar, S.

2016-10-01

The ‘standard’ model of cosmology is founded on the basis that the expansion rate of the universe is accelerating at present — as was inferred originally from the Hubble diagram of Type Ia supernovae. There exists now a much bigger database of supernovae so we can perform rigorous statistical tests to check whether these ‘standardisable candles’ indeed indicate cosmic acceleration. Taking account of the empirical procedure by which corrections are made to their absolute magnitudes to allow for the varying shape of the light curve and extinction by dust, we find, rather surprisingly, that the data are still quite consistent with a constant rate of expansion.

Marginal evidence for cosmic acceleration from Type Ia supernovae

PubMed Central

Nielsen, J. T.; Guffanti, A.; Sarkar, S.

2016-01-01

The ‘standard’ model of cosmology is founded on the basis that the expansion rate of the universe is accelerating at present — as was inferred originally from the Hubble diagram of Type Ia supernovae. There exists now a much bigger database of supernovae so we can perform rigorous statistical tests to check whether these ‘standardisable candles’ indeed indicate cosmic acceleration. Taking account of the empirical procedure by which corrections are made to their absolute magnitudes to allow for the varying shape of the light curve and extinction by dust, we find, rather surprisingly, that the data are still quite consistent with a constant rate of expansion. PMID:27767125

Implementation and evaluation of an efficient secure computation system using ‘R’ for healthcare statistics

PubMed Central

Chida, Koji; Morohashi, Gembu; Fuji, Hitoshi; Magata, Fumihiko; Fujimura, Akiko; Hamada, Koki; Ikarashi, Dai; Yamamoto, Ryuichi

2014-01-01

Background and objective While the secondary use of medical data has gained attention, its adoption has been constrained due to protection of patient privacy. Making medical data secure by de-identification can be problematic, especially when the data concerns rare diseases. We require rigorous security management measures. Materials and methods Using secure computation, an approach from cryptography, our system can compute various statistics over encrypted medical records without decrypting them. An issue of secure computation is that the amount of processing time required is immense. We implemented a system that securely computes healthcare statistics from the statistical computing software ‘R’ by effectively combining secret-sharing-based secure computation with original computation. Results Testing confirmed that our system could correctly complete computation of average and unbiased variance of approximately 50 000 records of dummy insurance claim data in a little over a second. Computation including conditional expressions and/or comparison of values, for example, t test and median, could also be correctly completed in several tens of seconds to a few minutes. Discussion If medical records are simply encrypted, the risk of leaks exists because decryption is usually required during statistical analysis. Our system possesses high-level security because medical records remain in encrypted state even during statistical analysis. Also, our system can securely compute some basic statistics with conditional expressions using ‘R’ that works interactively while secure computation protocols generally require a significant amount of processing time. Conclusions We propose a secure statistical analysis system using ‘R’ for medical data that effectively integrates secret-sharing-based secure computation and original computation. PMID:24763677

Implementation and evaluation of an efficient secure computation system using 'R' for healthcare statistics.

PubMed

Chida, Koji; Morohashi, Gembu; Fuji, Hitoshi; Magata, Fumihiko; Fujimura, Akiko; Hamada, Koki; Ikarashi, Dai; Yamamoto, Ryuichi

2014-10-01

While the secondary use of medical data has gained attention, its adoption has been constrained due to protection of patient privacy. Making medical data secure by de-identification can be problematic, especially when the data concerns rare diseases. We require rigorous security management measures. Using secure computation, an approach from cryptography, our system can compute various statistics over encrypted medical records without decrypting them. An issue of secure computation is that the amount of processing time required is immense. We implemented a system that securely computes healthcare statistics from the statistical computing software 'R' by effectively combining secret-sharing-based secure computation with original computation. Testing confirmed that our system could correctly complete computation of average and unbiased variance of approximately 50,000 records of dummy insurance claim data in a little over a second. Computation including conditional expressions and/or comparison of values, for example, t test and median, could also be correctly completed in several tens of seconds to a few minutes. If medical records are simply encrypted, the risk of leaks exists because decryption is usually required during statistical analysis. Our system possesses high-level security because medical records remain in encrypted state even during statistical analysis. Also, our system can securely compute some basic statistics with conditional expressions using 'R' that works interactively while secure computation protocols generally require a significant amount of processing time. We propose a secure statistical analysis system using 'R' for medical data that effectively integrates secret-sharing-based secure computation and original computation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Dividing by Zero: Exploring Null Results in a Mathematics Professional Development Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Heather C.; Corey, Douglas Lyman; Jacob, Robin T.

2018-01-01

Background/Context: Since 2002, U.S. federal funding for educational research has favored the development and rigorous testing of interventions designed to improve student outcomes. However, recent reviews suggest that a large fraction of the programs developed and rigorously tested in the past decade have shown null results on student outcomes…

Accuracy and performance of 3D mask models in optical projection lithography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agudelo, Viviana; Evanschitzky, Peter; Erdmann, Andreas; Fühner, Tim; Shao, Feng; Limmer, Steffen; Fey, Dietmar

2011-04-01

Different mask models have been compared: rigorous electromagnetic field (EMF) modeling, rigorous EMF modeling with decomposition techniques and the thin mask approach (Kirchhoff approach) to simulate optical diffraction from different mask patterns in projection systems for lithography. In addition, each rigorous model was tested for two different formulations for partially coherent imaging: The Hopkins assumption and rigorous simulation of mask diffraction orders for multiple illumination angles. The aim of this work is to closely approximate results of the rigorous EMF method by the thin mask model enhanced with pupil filtering techniques. The validity of this approach for different feature sizes, shapes and illumination conditions is investigated.

Statistical Approaches to Assess Biosimilarity from Analytical Data.

PubMed

Burdick, Richard; Coffey, Todd; Gutka, Hiten; Gratzl, Gyöngyi; Conlon, Hugh D; Huang, Chi-Ting; Boyne, Michael; Kuehne, Henriette

2017-01-01

Protein therapeutics have unique critical quality attributes (CQAs) that define their purity, potency, and safety. The analytical methods used to assess CQAs must be able to distinguish clinically meaningful differences in comparator products, and the most important CQAs should be evaluated with the most statistical rigor. High-risk CQA measurements assess the most important attributes that directly impact the clinical mechanism of action or have known implications for safety, while the moderate- to low-risk characteristics may have a lower direct impact and thereby may have a broader range to establish similarity. Statistical equivalence testing is applied for high-risk CQA measurements to establish the degree of similarity (e.g., highly similar fingerprint, highly similar, or similar) of selected attributes. Notably, some high-risk CQAs (e.g., primary sequence or disulfide bonding) are qualitative (e.g., the same as the originator or not the same) and therefore not amenable to equivalence testing. For biosimilars, an important step is the acquisition of a sufficient number of unique originator drug product lots to measure the variability in the originator drug manufacturing process and provide sufficient statistical power for the analytical data comparisons. Together, these analytical evaluations, along with PK/PD and safety data (immunogenicity), provide the data necessary to determine if the totality of the evidence warrants a designation of biosimilarity and subsequent licensure for marketing in the USA. In this paper, a case study approach is used to provide examples of analytical similarity exercises and the appropriateness of statistical approaches for the example data.

On the assessment of the added value of new predictive biomarkers.

PubMed

Chen, Weijie; Samuelson, Frank W; Gallas, Brandon D; Kang, Le; Sahiner, Berkman; Petrick, Nicholas

2013-07-29

The surge in biomarker development calls for research on statistical evaluation methodology to rigorously assess emerging biomarkers and classification models. Recently, several authors reported the puzzling observation that, in assessing the added value of new biomarkers to existing ones in a logistic regression model, statistical significance of new predictor variables does not necessarily translate into a statistically significant increase in the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Vickers et al. concluded that this inconsistency is because AUC "has vastly inferior statistical properties," i.e., it is extremely conservative. This statement is based on simulations that misuse the DeLong et al. method. Our purpose is to provide a fair comparison of the likelihood ratio (LR) test and the Wald test versus diagnostic accuracy (AUC) tests. We present a test to compare ideal AUCs of nested linear discriminant functions via an F test. We compare it with the LR test and the Wald test for the logistic regression model. The null hypotheses of these three tests are equivalent; however, the F test is an exact test whereas the LR test and the Wald test are asymptotic tests. Our simulation shows that the F test has the nominal type I error even with a small sample size. Our results also indicate that the LR test and the Wald test have inflated type I errors when the sample size is small, while the type I error converges to the nominal value asymptotically with increasing sample size as expected. We further show that the DeLong et al. method tests a different hypothesis and has the nominal type I error when it is used within its designed scope. Finally, we summarize the pros and cons of all four methods we consider in this paper. We show that there is nothing inherently less powerful or disagreeable about ROC analysis for showing the usefulness of new biomarkers or characterizing the performance of classification models. Each statistical method for assessing biomarkers and classification models has its own strengths and weaknesses. Investigators need to choose methods based on the assessment purpose, the biomarker development phase at which the assessment is being performed, the available patient data, and the validity of assumptions behind the methodologies.

Mathematical Rigor vs. Conceptual Change: Some Early Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, W. R.

2003-05-01

Results from two different pedagogical approaches to teaching introductory astronomy at the college level will be presented. The first of these approaches is a descriptive, conceptually based approach that emphasizes conceptual change. This descriptive class is typically an elective for non-science majors. The other approach is a mathematically rigorous treatment that emphasizes problem solving and is designed to prepare students for further study in astronomy. The mathematically rigorous class is typically taken by science majors. It also fulfills an elective science requirement for these science majors. The Astronomy Diagnostic Test version 2 (ADT 2.0) was used as an assessment instrument since the validity and reliability have been investigated by previous researchers. The ADT 2.0 was administered as both a pre-test and post-test to both groups. Initial results show no significant difference between the two groups in the post-test. However, there is a slightly greater improvement for the descriptive class between the pre and post testing compared to the mathematically rigorous course. There was great care to account for variables. These variables included: selection of text, class format as well as instructor differences. Results indicate that the mathematically rigorous model, doesn't improve conceptual understanding any better than the conceptual change model. Additional results indicate that there is a similar gender bias in favor of males that has been measured by previous investigators. This research has been funded by the College of Science and Mathematics at James Madison University.

Short-term climate variability and atmospheric teleconnections from satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation. I Simultaneous relationships. II - Lagged correlations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Chan, P. H.

1983-01-01

Attention is given to the low-frequency variability of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fluctuations, their possible correlations over different parts of the globe, and their relationships with teleconnections obtained from other meteorological parameters, for example, geopotential and temperature fields. Simultaneous relationships with respect to the Southern Oscillation (Namais, 1978; Barnett, 1981) signal and the reference OLR fluctuation over the equatorial central Pacific are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the relative importance of the Southern Oscillation (SO) signal over preferred regions. Using lag cross-correlation statistics, possible lagged relationships between the tropics and midlatitudes and their relationships with the SO are then investigated. Only features that are consistent with present knowledge of the dynamics of the system are emphasized. Certain features which may not meet rigorous statistical significance tests but yet are either expected a priori from independent observations or are predicted from dynamical theories are also explored.

Dependence of exponents on text length versus finite-size scaling for word-frequency distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corral, Álvaro; Font-Clos, Francesc

2017-08-01

Some authors have recently argued that a finite-size scaling law for the text-length dependence of word-frequency distributions cannot be conceptually valid. Here we give solid quantitative evidence for the validity of this scaling law, using both careful statistical tests and analytical arguments based on the generalized central-limit theorem applied to the moments of the distribution (and obtaining a novel derivation of Heaps' law as a by-product). We also find that the picture of word-frequency distributions with power-law exponents that decrease with text length [X. Yan and P. Minnhagen, Physica A 444, 828 (2016), 10.1016/j.physa.2015.10.082] does not stand with rigorous statistical analysis. Instead, we show that the distributions are perfectly described by power-law tails with stable exponents, whose values are close to 2, in agreement with the classical Zipf's law. Some misconceptions about scaling are also clarified.

Complexities and potential pitfalls of clinical study design and data analysis in assisted reproduction.

PubMed

Patounakis, George; Hill, Micah J

2018-06-01

The purpose of the current review is to describe the common pitfalls in design and statistical analysis of reproductive medicine studies. It serves to guide both authors and reviewers toward reducing the incidence of spurious statistical results and erroneous conclusions. The large amount of data gathered in IVF cycles leads to problems with multiplicity, multicollinearity, and over fitting of regression models. Furthermore, the use of the word 'trend' to describe nonsignificant results has increased in recent years. Finally, methods to accurately account for female age in infertility research models are becoming more common and necessary. The pitfalls of study design and analysis reviewed provide a framework for authors and reviewers to approach clinical research in the field of reproductive medicine. By providing a more rigorous approach to study design and analysis, the literature in reproductive medicine will have more reliable conclusions that can stand the test of time.

Orbital State Uncertainty Realism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horwood, J.; Poore, A. B.

2012-09-01

Fundamental to the success of the space situational awareness (SSA) mission is the rigorous inclusion of uncertainty in the space surveillance network. The *proper characterization of uncertainty* in the orbital state of a space object is a common requirement to many SSA functions including tracking and data association, resolution of uncorrelated tracks (UCTs), conjunction analysis and probability of collision, sensor resource management, and anomaly detection. While tracking environments, such as air and missile defense, make extensive use of Gaussian and local linearity assumptions within algorithms for uncertainty management, space surveillance is inherently different due to long time gaps between updates, high misdetection rates, nonlinear and non-conservative dynamics, and non-Gaussian phenomena. The latter implies that "covariance realism" is not always sufficient. SSA also requires "uncertainty realism"; the proper characterization of both the state and covariance and all non-zero higher-order cumulants. In other words, a proper characterization of a space object's full state *probability density function (PDF)* is required. In order to provide a more statistically rigorous treatment of uncertainty in the space surveillance tracking environment and to better support the aforementioned SSA functions, a new class of multivariate PDFs are formulated which more accurately characterize the uncertainty of a space object's state or orbit. The new distribution contains a parameter set controlling the higher-order cumulants which gives the level sets a distinctive "banana" or "boomerang" shape and degenerates to a Gaussian in a suitable limit. Using the new class of PDFs within the general Bayesian nonlinear filter, the resulting filter prediction step (i.e., uncertainty propagation) is shown to have the *same computational cost as the traditional unscented Kalman filter* with the former able to maintain a proper characterization of the uncertainty for up to *ten times as long* as the latter. The filter correction step also furnishes a statistically rigorous *prediction error* which appears in the likelihood ratios for scoring the association of one report or observation to another. Thus, the new filter can be used to support multi-target tracking within a general multiple hypothesis tracking framework. Additionally, the new distribution admits a distance metric which extends the classical Mahalanobis distance (chi^2 statistic). This metric provides a test for statistical significance and facilitates single-frame data association methods with the potential to easily extend the covariance-based track association algorithm of Hill, Sabol, and Alfriend. The filtering, data fusion, and association methods using the new class of orbital state PDFs are shown to be mathematically tractable and operationally viable.

Statistical tests and identifiability conditions for pooling and analyzing multisite datasets

PubMed Central

Zhou, Hao Henry; Singh, Vikas; Johnson, Sterling C.; Wahba, Grace

2018-01-01

When sample sizes are small, the ability to identify weak (but scientifically interesting) associations between a set of predictors and a response may be enhanced by pooling existing datasets. However, variations in acquisition methods and the distribution of participants or observations between datasets, especially due to the distributional shifts in some predictors, may obfuscate real effects when datasets are combined. We present a rigorous statistical treatment of this problem and identify conditions where we can correct the distributional shift. We also provide an algorithm for the situation where the correction is identifiable. We analyze various properties of the framework for testing model fit, constructing confidence intervals, and evaluating consistency characteristics. Our technical development is motivated by Alzheimer’s disease (AD) studies, and we present empirical results showing that our framework enables harmonizing of protein biomarkers, even when the assays across sites differ. Our contribution may, in part, mitigate a bottleneck that researchers face in clinical research when pooling smaller sized datasets and may offer benefits when the subjects of interest are difficult to recruit or when resources prohibit large single-site studies. PMID:29386387

Food Choice Questionnaire (FCQ) revisited. Suggestions for the development of an enhanced general food motivation model.

PubMed

Fotopoulos, Christos; Krystallis, Athanasios; Vassallo, Marco; Pagiaslis, Anastasios

2009-02-01

Recognising the need for a more statistically robust instrument to investigate general food selection determinants, the research validates and confirms Food Choice Questionnaire (FCQ's) factorial design, develops ad hoc a more robust FCQ version and tests its ability to discriminate between consumer segments in terms of the importance they assign to the FCQ motivational factors. The original FCQ appears to represent a comprehensive and reliable research instrument. However, the empirical data do not support the robustness of its 9-factorial design. On the other hand, segmentation results at the subpopulation level based on the enhanced FCQ version bring about an optimistic message for the FCQ's ability to predict food selection behaviour. The paper concludes that some of the basic components of the original FCQ can be used as a basis for a new general food motivation typology. The development of such a new instrument, with fewer, of higher abstraction FCQ-based dimensions and fewer items per dimension, is a right step forward; yet such a step should be theory-driven, while a rigorous statistical testing across and within population would be necessary.

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 1: temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as "field" or "global" significance. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Monthly temperature climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. In winter and in most regions in summer, the downscaled distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones. A systematic cold summer bias occurs in deep river valleys due to overestimated elevations, in coastal areas due probably to enhanced sea breeze circulation, and over large lakes due to the interpolation of water temperatures. Urban areas in concave topography forms have a warm summer bias due to the strong heat islands, not reflected in the observations. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate fine-scale features in the monthly temperature field over regions of complex topography, but over spatially homogeneous areas even small biases can lead to significant deteriorations relative to the driving reanalysis. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

Estimating maize production in Kenya using NDVI: Some statistical considerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, J.E.; Rowland, James; Nadeau , A.

1998-01-01

A regression model approach using a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has the potential for estimating crop production in East Africa. However, before production estimation can become a reality, the underlying model assumptions and statistical nature of the sample data (NDVI and crop production) must be examined rigorously. Annual maize production statistics from 1982-90 for 36 agricultural districts within Kenya were used as the dependent variable; median area NDVI (independent variable) values from each agricultural district and year were extracted from the annual maximum NDVI data set. The input data and the statistical association of NDVI with maize production for Kenya were tested systematically for the following items: (1) homogeneity of the data when pooling the sample, (2) gross data errors and influence points, (3) serial (time) correlation, (4) spatial autocorrelation and (5) stability of the regression coefficients. The results of using a simple regression model with NDVI as the only independent variable are encouraging (r 0.75, p 0.05) and illustrate that NDVI can be a responsive indicator of maize production, especially in areas of high NDVI spatial variability, which coincide with areas of production variability in Kenya.

A rigorous test of the accuracy of USGS digital elevation models in forested areas of Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Ward W. Carson; Stephen E. Reutebuch

1997-01-01

A procedure for performing a rigorous test of elevational accuracy of DEMs using independent ground coordinate data digitized photogrammetrically from aerial photography is presented. The accuracy of a sample set of 23 DEMs covering National Forests in Oregon and Washington was evaluated. Accuracy varied considerably between eastern and western parts of Oregon and...

Long persistence of rigor mortis at constant low temperature.

PubMed

Varetto, Lorenzo; Curto, Ombretta

2005-01-06

We studied the persistence of rigor mortis by using physical manipulation. We tested the mobility of the knee on 146 corpses kept under refrigeration at Torino's city mortuary at a constant temperature of +4 degrees C. We found a persistence of complete rigor lasting for 10 days in all the cadavers we kept under observation; and in one case, rigor lasted for 16 days. Between the 11th and the 17th days, a progressively increasing number of corpses showed a change from complete into partial rigor (characterized by partial bending of the articulation). After the 17th day, all the remaining corpses showed partial rigor and in the two cadavers that were kept under observation "à outrance" we found the absolute resolution of rigor mortis occurred on the 28th day. Our results prove that it is possible to find a persistence of rigor mortis that is much longer than the expected when environmental conditions resemble average outdoor winter temperatures in temperate zones. Therefore, this datum must be considered when a corpse is found in those environmental conditions so that when estimating the time of death, we are not misled by the long persistence of rigor mortis.

A powerful and flexible statistical framework for testing hypotheses of allele-specific gene expression from RNA-seq data

PubMed Central

Skelly, Daniel A.; Johansson, Marnie; Madeoy, Jennifer; Wakefield, Jon; Akey, Joshua M.

2011-01-01

Variation in gene expression is thought to make a significant contribution to phenotypic diversity among individuals within populations. Although high-throughput cDNA sequencing offers a unique opportunity to delineate the genome-wide architecture of regulatory variation, new statistical methods need to be developed to capitalize on the wealth of information contained in RNA-seq data sets. To this end, we developed a powerful and flexible hierarchical Bayesian model that combines information across loci to allow both global and locus-specific inferences about allele-specific expression (ASE). We applied our methodology to a large RNA-seq data set obtained in a diploid hybrid of two diverse Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains, as well as to RNA-seq data from an individual human genome. Our statistical framework accurately quantifies levels of ASE with specified false-discovery rates, achieving high reproducibility between independent sequencing platforms. We pinpoint loci that show unusual and biologically interesting patterns of ASE, including allele-specific alternative splicing and transcription termination sites. Our methodology provides a rigorous, quantitative, and high-resolution tool for profiling ASE across whole genomes. PMID:21873452

New statistical potential for quality assessment of protein models and a survey of energy functions

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Scoring functions, such as molecular mechanic forcefields and statistical potentials are fundamentally important tools in protein structure modeling and quality assessment. Results The performances of a number of publicly available scoring functions are compared with a statistical rigor, with an emphasis on knowledge-based potentials. We explored the effect on accuracy of alternative choices for representing interaction center types and other features of scoring functions, such as using information on solvent accessibility, on torsion angles, accounting for secondary structure preferences and side chain orientation. Partially based on the observations made, we present a novel residue based statistical potential, which employs a shuffled reference state definition and takes into account the mutual orientation of residue side chains. Atom- and residue-level statistical potentials and Linux executables to calculate the energy of a given protein proposed in this work can be downloaded from http://www.fiserlab.org/potentials. Conclusions Among the most influential terms we observed a critical role of a proper reference state definition and the benefits of including information about the microenvironment of interaction centers. Molecular mechanical potentials were also tested and found to be over-sensitive to small local imperfections in a structure, requiring unfeasible long energy relaxation before energy scores started to correlate with model quality. PMID:20226048

Curve fitting air sample filter decay curves to estimate transuranic content.

PubMed

Hayes, Robert B; Chiou, Hung Cheng

2004-01-01

By testing industry standard techniques for radon progeny evaluation on air sample filters, a new technique is developed to evaluate transuranic activity on air filters by curve fitting the decay curves. The industry method modified here is simply the use of filter activity measurements at different times to estimate the air concentrations of radon progeny. The primary modification was to not look for specific radon progeny values but rather transuranic activity. By using a method that will provide reasonably conservative estimates of the transuranic activity present on a filter, some credit for the decay curve shape can then be taken. By carrying out rigorous statistical analysis of the curve fits to over 65 samples having no transuranic activity taken over a 10-mo period, an optimization of the fitting function and quality tests for this purpose was attained.

QTest: Quantitative Testing of Theories of Binary Choice

PubMed Central

Regenwetter, Michel; Davis-Stober, Clintin P.; Lim, Shiau Hong; Guo, Ying; Popova, Anna; Zwilling, Chris; Cha, Yun-Shil; Messner, William

2014-01-01

The goal of this paper is to make modeling and quantitative testing accessible to behavioral decision researchers interested in substantive questions. We provide a novel, rigorous, yet very general, quantitative diagnostic framework for testing theories of binary choice. This permits the nontechnical scholar to proceed far beyond traditionally rather superficial methods of analysis, and it permits the quantitatively savvy scholar to triage theoretical proposals before investing effort into complex and specialized quantitative analyses. Our theoretical framework links static algebraic decision theory with observed variability in behavioral binary choice data. The paper is supplemented with a custom-designed public-domain statistical analysis package, the QTest software. We illustrate our approach with a quantitative analysis using published laboratory data, including tests of novel versions of “Random Cumulative Prospect Theory.” A major asset of the approach is the potential to distinguish decision makers who have a fixed preference and commit errors in observed choices from decision makers who waver in their preferences. PMID:24999495

Bioregional monitoring design and occupancy estimation for two Sierra Nevadan amphibian taxa

EPA Science Inventory

Land-management agencies need quantitative, statistically rigorous monitoring data, often at large spatial and temporal scales, to support resource-management decisions. Monitoring designs typically must accommodate multiple ecological, logistical, political, and economic objec...

A review of mammalian carcinogenicity study design and potential effects of alternate test procedures on the safety evaluation of food ingredients.

PubMed

Hayes, A W; Dayan, A D; Hall, W C; Kodell, R L; Williams, G M; Waddell, W D; Slesinski, R S; Kruger, C L

2011-06-01

Extensive experience in conducting long term cancer bioassays has been gained over the past 50 years of animal testing on drugs, pesticides, industrial chemicals, food additives and consumer products. Testing protocols for the conduct of carcinogenicity studies in rodents have been developed in Guidelines promulgated by regulatory agencies, including the US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), the US FDA (Food and Drug Administration), the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) for the EU member states and the MAFF (Ministries of Agriculture, Forestries and Fisheries) and MHW (Ministry of Health and Welfare) in Japan. The basis of critical elements of the study design that lead to an accepted identification of the carcinogenic hazard of substances in food and beverages is the focus of this review. The approaches used by entities well-known for carcinogenicity testing and/or guideline development are discussed. Particular focus is placed on comparison of testing programs used by the US National Toxicology Program (NTP) and advocated in OECD guidelines to the testing programs of the European Ramazzini Foundation (ERF), an organization with numerous published carcinogenicity studies. This focus allows for a good comparison of differences in approaches to carcinogenicity testing and allows for a critical consideration of elements important to appropriate carcinogenicity study designs and practices. OECD protocols serve as good standard models for carcinogenicity testing protocol design. Additionally, the detailed design of any protocol should include attention to the rationale for inclusion of particular elements, including the impact of those elements on study interpretations. Appropriate interpretation of study results is dependent on rigorous evaluation of the study design and conduct, including differences from standard practices. Important considerations are differences in the strain of animal used, diet and housing practices, rigorousness of test procedures, dose selection, histopathology procedures, application of historical control data, statistical evaluations and whether statistical extrapolations are supported by, or are beyond the limits of, the data generated. Without due consideration, there can be result conflicting data interpretations and uncertainty about the relevance of a study's results to human risk. This paper discusses the critical elements of rodent (rat) carcinogenicity studies, particularly with respect to the study of food ingredients. It also highlights study practices and procedures that can detract from the appropriate evaluation of human relevance of results, indicating the importance of adherence to international consensus protocols, such as those detailed by OECD. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Digital morphogenesis via Schelling segregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barmpalias, George; Elwes, Richard; Lewis-Pye, Andrew

2018-04-01

Schelling’s model of segregation looks to explain the way in which particles or agents of two types may come to arrange themselves spatially into configurations consisting of large homogeneous clusters, i.e. connected regions consisting of only one type. As one of the earliest agent based models studied by economists and perhaps the most famous model of self-organising behaviour, it also has direct links to areas at the interface between computer science and statistical mechanics, such as the Ising model and the study of contagion and cascading phenomena in networks. While the model has been extensively studied it has largely resisted rigorous analysis, prior results from the literature generally pertaining to variants of the model which are tweaked so as to be amenable to standard techniques from statistical mechanics or stochastic evolutionary game theory. In Brandt et al (2012 Proc. 44th Annual ACM Symp. on Theory of Computing) provided the first rigorous analysis of the unperturbed model, for a specific set of input parameters. Here we provide a rigorous analysis of the model’s behaviour much more generally and establish some surprising forms of threshold behaviour, notably the existence of situations where an increased level of intolerance for neighbouring agents of opposite type leads almost certainly to decreased segregation.

Human-rated Safety Certification of a High Voltage Robonaut Lithium-ion Battery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jeevarajan, Judith; Yayathi, S.; Johnson, M.; Waligora, T.; Verdeyen, W.

2013-01-01

NASA's rigorous certification process is being followed for the R2 high voltage battery program for use of R2 on International Space Station (ISS). Rigorous development testing at appropriate levels to credible off-nominal conditions and review of test data led to design improvements for safety at the virtual cell, cartridge and battery levels. Tests were carried out at all levels to confirm that both hardware and software controls work. Stringent flight acceptance testing of the flight battery will be completed before launch for mission use on ISS.

Closed loop statistical performance analysis of N-K knock controllers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peyton Jones, James C.; Shayestehmanesh, Saeed; Frey, Jesse

2017-09-01

The closed loop performance of engine knock controllers cannot be rigorously assessed from single experiments or simulations because knock behaves as a random process and therefore the response belongs to a random distribution also. In this work a new method is proposed for computing the distributions and expected values of the closed loop response, both in steady state and in response to disturbances. The method takes as its input the control law, and the knock propensity characteristic of the engine which is mapped from open loop steady state tests. The method is applicable to the 'n-k' class of knock controllers in which the control action is a function only of the number of cycles n since the last control move, and the number k of knock events that have occurred in this time. A Cumulative Summation (CumSum) based controller falls within this category, and the method is used to investigate the performance of the controller in a deeper and more rigorous way than has previously been possible. The results are validated using onerous Monte Carlo simulations, which confirm both the validity of the method and its high computational efficiency.

Rotation and anisotropy of galaxies revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binney, James

2005-11-01

The use of the tensor virial theorem (TVT) as a diagnostic of anisotropic velocity distributions in galaxies is revisited. The TVT provides a rigorous global link between velocity anisotropy, rotation and shape, but the quantities appearing in it are not easily estimated observationally. Traditionally, use has been made of a centrally averaged velocity dispersion and the peak rotation velocity. Although this procedure cannot be rigorously justified, tests on model galaxies show that it works surprisingly well. With the advent of integral-field spectroscopy it is now possible to establish a rigorous connection between the TVT and observations. The TVT is reformulated in terms of sky-averages, and the new formulation is tested on model galaxies.

Toward rigorous idiographic research in prevention science: comparison between three analytic strategies for testing preventive intervention in very small samples.

PubMed

Ridenour, Ty A; Pineo, Thomas Z; Maldonado Molina, Mildred M; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen

2013-06-01

Psychosocial prevention research lacks evidence from intensive within-person lines of research to understand idiographic processes related to development and response to intervention. Such data could be used to fill gaps in the literature and expand the study design options for prevention researchers, including lower-cost yet rigorous studies (e.g., for program evaluations), pilot studies, designs to test programs for low prevalence outcomes, selective/indicated/adaptive intervention research, and understanding of differential response to programs. This study compared three competing analytic strategies designed for this type of research: autoregressive moving average, mixed model trajectory analysis, and P-technique. Illustrative time series data were from a pilot study of an intervention for nursing home residents with diabetes (N = 4) designed to improve control of blood glucose. A within-person, intermittent baseline design was used. Intervention effects were detected using each strategy for the aggregated sample and for individual patients. The P-technique model most closely replicated observed glucose levels. ARIMA and P-technique models were most similar in terms of estimated intervention effects and modeled glucose levels. However, ARIMA and P-technique also were more sensitive to missing data, outliers and number of observations. Statistical testing suggested that results generalize both to other persons as well as to idiographic, longitudinal processes. This study demonstrated the potential contributions of idiographic research in prevention science as well as the need for simulation studies to delineate the research circumstances when each analytic approach is optimal for deriving the correct parameter estimates.

Toward Rigorous Idiographic Research in Prevention Science: Comparison Between Three Analytic Strategies for Testing Preventive Intervention in Very Small Samples

PubMed Central

Pineo, Thomas Z.; Maldonado Molina, Mildred M.; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller

2013-01-01

Psychosocial prevention research lacks evidence from intensive within-person lines of research to understand idiographic processes related to development and response to intervention. Such data could be used to fill gaps in the literature and expand the study design options for prevention researchers, including lower-cost yet rigorous studies (e.g., for program evaluations), pilot studies, designs to test programs for low prevalence outcomes, selective/indicated/ adaptive intervention research, and understanding of differential response to programs. This study compared three competing analytic strategies designed for this type of research: autoregressive moving average, mixed model trajectory analysis, and P-technique. Illustrative time series data were from a pilot study of an intervention for nursing home residents with diabetes (N=4) designed to improve control of blood glucose. A within-person, intermittent baseline design was used. Intervention effects were detected using each strategy for the aggregated sample and for individual patients. The P-technique model most closely replicated observed glucose levels. ARIMA and P-technique models were most similar in terms of estimated intervention effects and modeled glucose levels. However, ARIMA and P-technique also were more sensitive to missing data, outliers and number of observations. Statistical testing suggested that results generalize both to other persons as well as to idiographic, longitudinal processes. This study demonstrated the potential contributions of idiographic research in prevention science as well as the need for simulation studies to delineate the research circumstances when each analytic approach is optimal for deriving the correct parameter estimates. PMID:23299558

Quality Reporting of Multivariable Regression Models in Observational Studies: Review of a Representative Sample of Articles Published in Biomedical Journals.

PubMed

Real, Jordi; Forné, Carles; Roso-Llorach, Albert; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

2016-05-01

Controlling for confounders is a crucial step in analytical observational studies, and multivariable models are widely used as statistical adjustment techniques. However, the validation of the assumptions of the multivariable regression models (MRMs) should be made clear in scientific reporting. The objective of this study is to review the quality of statistical reporting of the most commonly used MRMs (logistic, linear, and Cox regression) that were applied in analytical observational studies published between 2003 and 2014 by journals indexed in MEDLINE.Review of a representative sample of articles indexed in MEDLINE (n = 428) with observational design and use of MRMs (logistic, linear, and Cox regression). We assessed the quality of reporting about: model assumptions and goodness-of-fit, interactions, sensitivity analysis, crude and adjusted effect estimate, and specification of more than 1 adjusted model.The tests of underlying assumptions or goodness-of-fit of the MRMs used were described in 26.2% (95% CI: 22.0-30.3) of the articles and 18.5% (95% CI: 14.8-22.1) reported the interaction analysis. Reporting of all items assessed was higher in articles published in journals with a higher impact factor.A low percentage of articles indexed in MEDLINE that used multivariable techniques provided information demonstrating rigorous application of the model selected as an adjustment method. Given the importance of these methods to the final results and conclusions of observational studies, greater rigor is required in reporting the use of MRMs in the scientific literature.

A Regional Seismic Travel Time Model for North America

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

velocity at the Moho, the mantle velocity gradient, and the average crustal velocity. After tomography across Eurasia, rigorous tests find that Pn...velocity gradient, and the average crustal velocity. After tomography across Eurasia rigorous tests find that Pn travel time residuals are reduced...and S-wave velocity in the crustal layers and in the upper mantle. A good prior model is essential because the RSTT tomography inversion is invariably

A statistical study of the relationship between surface quality and laser induced damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Trey; Turchette, Quentin; Martin, Alex R.

2012-11-01

Laser induced damage of optical components is a concern in many applications in the commercial, scientific and military market sectors. Numerous component manufacturers supply "high laser damage threshold" (HLDT) optics to meet the needs of this market, and consumers pay a premium price for these products. While there's no question that HLDT optics are manufactured to more rigorous standards (and are therefore inherently more expensive) than conventional products, it is not clear how this added expense translates directly into better performance. This is because the standard methods for evaluating laser damage, and the underlying assumptions about the validity of traditional laser damage testing, are flawed. In particular, the surface and coating defects that generally lead to laser damage (in many laserparameter regimes of interest) are widely distributed over the component surface with large spaces in between them. As a result, laser damage testing typically doesn't include enough of these defects to achieve the sample sizes necessary to make its results statistically meaningful. The result is a poor correlation between defect characteristics and damage events. This paper establishes specifically why this is the case, and provides some indication of what might be done to remedy the problem.

Health benefits achieved through the Seventh-Day Adventist Wellness Challenge program.

PubMed

Kamieneski, R; Brown, C M; Mitchell, C; Perrin, K M; Dindial, K

2000-11-01

The Wellness Challenge program introduces the philosophy of the healing power of God and stresses the importance of developing a sense of spirituality in conjunction with the promotion of good health. To employ scientific rigor to the outcome measures of the Seventh-Day Adventist Wellness Challenge program. A 2-tailed, paired sample t test. East Pasco Medical Center in Zephyrhills, Fla. 165 participants. Presurvey, 21-day outpatient wellness intervention; postsurvey, 6 weeks after completion of the program. Changes in behaviors related to cigarette smoking, alcohol use, eating patterns, exercise, water consumption, rest, relaxation, and time spent outdoors, as well as demographic data. Statistically significant differences were found between the pre- and postprogram clinical and laboratory test results for the participants' blood pressure, weight, glucose levels, and cholesterol at .05 alpha. Furthermore, self-health improvements measured by a pre- and postsurvey response confirmed statistically significant improvement in participants' willingness to improve their lifestyle behaviors for a potentially greater quality of life. The Wellness Challenge program offers ways to reduce risk factors related to chronic disease while improving the quality of life within an adult population by allowing people to slowly incorporate newly acquired tools into their everyday life.

Statistical tests and identifiability conditions for pooling and analyzing multisite datasets.

PubMed

Zhou, Hao Henry; Singh, Vikas; Johnson, Sterling C; Wahba, Grace

2018-02-13

When sample sizes are small, the ability to identify weak (but scientifically interesting) associations between a set of predictors and a response may be enhanced by pooling existing datasets. However, variations in acquisition methods and the distribution of participants or observations between datasets, especially due to the distributional shifts in some predictors, may obfuscate real effects when datasets are combined. We present a rigorous statistical treatment of this problem and identify conditions where we can correct the distributional shift. We also provide an algorithm for the situation where the correction is identifiable. We analyze various properties of the framework for testing model fit, constructing confidence intervals, and evaluating consistency characteristics. Our technical development is motivated by Alzheimer's disease (AD) studies, and we present empirical results showing that our framework enables harmonizing of protein biomarkers, even when the assays across sites differ. Our contribution may, in part, mitigate a bottleneck that researchers face in clinical research when pooling smaller sized datasets and may offer benefits when the subjects of interest are difficult to recruit or when resources prohibit large single-site studies. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Rigor Mortis: Statistical thoroughness in reporting and the making of truth.

PubMed

Tal, Aner

2016-02-01

Should a uniform checklist be adopted for methodological and statistical reporting? The current article discusses this notion, with particular attention to the use of old versus new statistics, and a consideration of the arguments brought up by Von Roten. The article argues that an overly exhaustive checklist that is uniformly applied to all submitted papers may be unsuitable for multidisciplinary work, and would further result in undue clutter and potentially distract reviewers from pertinent considerations in their evaluation of research articles. © The Author(s) 2015.

Detailed Spectral Analysis of the 260 ks XMM-Newton Data of 1E 1207.4-5209 and Significance of a 2.1 keV Absorption Feature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Kaya; Chonko, James C.; Hailey, Charles J.

2005-10-01

We have reanalyzed the 260 ks XMM-Newton observation of 1E 1207.4-5209. There are several significant improvements over previous work. First, a much broader range of physically plausible spectral models was used. Second, we have used a more rigorous statistical analysis. The standard F-distribution was not employed, but rather the exact finite statistics F-distribution was determined by Monte Carlo simulations. This approach was motivated by the recent work of Protassov and coworkers and Freeman and coworkers. They demonstrated that the standard F-distribution is not even asymptotically correct when applied to assess the significance of additional absorption features in a spectrum. With our improved analysis we do not find a third and fourth spectral feature in 1E 1207.4-5209 but only the two broad absorption features previously reported. Two additional statistical tests, one line model dependent and the other line model independent, confirmed our modified F-test analysis. For all physically plausible continuum models in which the weak residuals are strong enough to fit, the residuals occur at the instrument Au M edge. As a sanity check we confirmed that the residuals are consistent in strength and position with the instrument Au M residuals observed in 3C 273.

Authenticated DNA from Ancient Wood Remains

PubMed Central

LIEPELT, SASCHA; SPERISEN, CHRISTOPH; DEGUILLOUX, MARIE-FRANCE; PETIT, REMY J.; KISSLING, ROY; SPENCER, MATTHEW; DE BEAULIEU, JACQUES-LOUIS; TABERLET, PIERRE; GIELLY, LUDOVIC; ZIEGENHAGEN, BIRGIT

2006-01-01

• Background The reconstruction of biological processes and human activities during the last glacial cycle relies mainly on data from biological remains. Highly abundant tissues, such as wood, are candidates for a genetic analysis of past populations. While well-authenticated DNA has now been recovered from various fossil remains, the final ‘proof’ is still missing for wood, despite some promising studies. • Scope The goal of this study was to determine if ancient wood can be analysed routinely in studies of archaeology and palaeogenetics. An experiment was designed which included blind testing, independent replicates, extensive contamination controls and rigorous statistical tests. Ten samples of ancient wood from major European forest tree genera were analysed with plastid DNA markers. • Conclusions Authentic DNA was retrieved from wood samples up to 1000 years of age. A new tool for real-time vegetation history and archaeology is ready to use. PMID:16987920

A Systematic Review of Strategies for Implementing Empirically Supported Mental Health Interventions

PubMed Central

Powell, Byron J.; Proctor, Enola K.; Glass, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

Objective This systematic review examines experimental studies that test the effectiveness of strategies intended to integrate empirically supported mental health interventions into routine care settings. Our goal was to characterize the state of the literature and to provide direction for future implementation studies. Methods A literature search was conducted using electronic databases and a manual search. Results Eleven studies were identified that tested implementation strategies with a randomized (n = 10) or controlled clinical trial design (n = 1). The wide range of clinical interventions, implementation strategies, and outcomes evaluated precluded meta-analysis. However, the majority of studies (n = 7; 64%) found a statistically significant effect in the hypothesized direction for at least one implementation or clinical outcome. Conclusions There is a clear need for more rigorous research on the effectiveness of implementation strategies, and we provide several suggestions that could improve this research area. PMID:24791131

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions.

PubMed

Pavlacky, David C; Lukacs, Paul M; Blakesley, Jennifer A; Skorkowsky, Robert C; Klute, David S; Hahn, Beth A; Dreitz, Victoria J; George, T Luke; Hanni, David J

2017-01-01

Monitoring is an essential component of wildlife management and conservation. However, the usefulness of monitoring data is often undermined by the lack of 1) coordination across organizations and regions, 2) meaningful management and conservation objectives, and 3) rigorous sampling designs. Although many improvements to avian monitoring have been discussed, the recommendations have been slow to emerge in large-scale programs. We introduce the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program designed to overcome the above limitations. Our objectives are to outline the development of a statistically defensible sampling design to increase the value of large-scale monitoring data and provide example applications to demonstrate the ability of the design to meet multiple conservation and management objectives. We outline the sampling process for the IMBCR program with a focus on the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). We provide two examples for the Brewer's sparrow (Spizella breweri) in BCR 17 demonstrating the ability of the design to 1) determine hierarchical population responses to landscape change and 2) estimate hierarchical habitat relationships to predict the response of the Brewer's sparrow to conservation efforts at multiple spatial scales. The collaboration across organizations and regions provided economy of scale by leveraging a common data platform over large spatial scales to promote the efficient use of monitoring resources. We designed the IMBCR program to address the information needs and core conservation and management objectives of the participating partner organizations. Although it has been argued that probabilistic sampling designs are not practical for large-scale monitoring, the IMBCR program provides a precedent for implementing a statistically defensible sampling design from local to bioregional scales. We demonstrate that integrating conservation and management objectives with rigorous statistical design and analyses ensures reliable knowledge about bird populations that is relevant and integral to bird conservation at multiple scales.

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

PubMed Central

Hahn, Beth A.; Dreitz, Victoria J.; George, T. Luke

2017-01-01

Monitoring is an essential component of wildlife management and conservation. However, the usefulness of monitoring data is often undermined by the lack of 1) coordination across organizations and regions, 2) meaningful management and conservation objectives, and 3) rigorous sampling designs. Although many improvements to avian monitoring have been discussed, the recommendations have been slow to emerge in large-scale programs. We introduce the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program designed to overcome the above limitations. Our objectives are to outline the development of a statistically defensible sampling design to increase the value of large-scale monitoring data and provide example applications to demonstrate the ability of the design to meet multiple conservation and management objectives. We outline the sampling process for the IMBCR program with a focus on the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). We provide two examples for the Brewer’s sparrow (Spizella breweri) in BCR 17 demonstrating the ability of the design to 1) determine hierarchical population responses to landscape change and 2) estimate hierarchical habitat relationships to predict the response of the Brewer’s sparrow to conservation efforts at multiple spatial scales. The collaboration across organizations and regions provided economy of scale by leveraging a common data platform over large spatial scales to promote the efficient use of monitoring resources. We designed the IMBCR program to address the information needs and core conservation and management objectives of the participating partner organizations. Although it has been argued that probabilistic sampling designs are not practical for large-scale monitoring, the IMBCR program provides a precedent for implementing a statistically defensible sampling design from local to bioregional scales. We demonstrate that integrating conservation and management objectives with rigorous statistical design and analyses ensures reliable knowledge about bird populations that is relevant and integral to bird conservation at multiple scales. PMID:29065128

Quantitative Analysis of Venus Radar Backscatter Data in ArcGIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, S. M.; Grosfils, E. B.

2005-01-01

Ongoing mapping of the Ganiki Planitia (V14) quadrangle of Venus and definition of material units has involved an integrated but qualitative analysis of Magellan radar backscatter images and topography using standard geomorphological mapping techniques. However, such analyses do not take full advantage of the quantitative information contained within the images. Analysis of the backscatter coefficient allows a much more rigorous statistical comparison between mapped units, permitting first order selfsimilarity tests of geographically separated materials assigned identical geomorphological labels. Such analyses cannot be performed directly on pixel (DN) values from Magellan backscatter images, because the pixels are scaled to the Muhleman law for radar echoes on Venus and are not corrected for latitudinal variations in incidence angle. Therefore, DN values must be converted based on pixel latitude back to their backscatter coefficient values before accurate statistical analysis can occur. Here we present a method for performing the conversions and analysis of Magellan backscatter data using commonly available ArcGIS software and illustrate the advantages of the process for geological mapping.

Quantitative structure-activity relationships by neural networks and inductive logic programming. I. The inhibition of dihydrofolate reductase by pyrimidines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirst, Jonathan D.; King, Ross D.; Sternberg, Michael J. E.

1994-08-01

Neural networks and inductive logic programming (ILP) have been compared to linear regression for modelling the QSAR of the inhibition of E. coli dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) by 2,4-diamino-5-(substitured benzyl)pyrimidines, and, in the subsequent paper [Hirst, J.D., King, R.D. and Sternberg, M.J.E., J. Comput.-Aided Mol. Design, 8 (1994) 421], the inhibition of rodent DHFR by 2,4-diamino-6,6-dimethyl-5-phenyl-dihydrotriazines. Cross-validation trials provide a statistically rigorous assessment of the predictive capabilities of the methods, with training and testing data selected randomly and all the methods developed using identical training data. For the ILP analysis, molecules are represented by attributes other than Hansch parameters. Neural networks and ILP perform better than linear regression using the attribute representation, but the difference is not statistically significant. The major benefit from the ILP analysis is the formulation of understandable rules relating the activity of the inhibitors to their chemical structure.

Safety Assessment of Food and Feed from GM Crops in Europe: Evaluating EFSA's Alternative Framework for the Rat 90-day Feeding Study.

PubMed

Hong, Bonnie; Du, Yingzhou; Mukerji, Pushkor; Roper, Jason M; Appenzeller, Laura M

2017-07-12

Regulatory-compliant rodent subchronic feeding studies are compulsory regardless of a hypothesis to test, according to recent EU legislation for the safety assessment of whole food/feed produced from genetically modified (GM) crops containing a single genetic transformation event (European Union Commission Implementing Regulation No. 503/2013). The Implementing Regulation refers to guidelines set forth by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) for the design, conduct, and analysis of rodent subchronic feeding studies. The set of EFSA recommendations was rigorously applied to a 90-day feeding study in Sprague-Dawley rats. After study completion, the appropriateness and applicability of these recommendations were assessed using a battery of statistical analysis approaches including both retrospective and prospective statistical power analyses as well as variance-covariance decomposition. In the interest of animal welfare considerations, alternative experimental designs were investigated and evaluated in the context of informing the health risk assessment of food/feed from GM crops.

Handwriting Examination: Moving from Art to Science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jarman, K.H.; Hanlen, R.C.; Manzolillo, P.A.

In this document, we present a method for validating the premises and methodology of forensic handwriting examination. This method is intuitively appealing because it relies on quantitative measurements currently used qualitatively by FDE's in making comparisons, and it is scientifically rigorous because it exploits the power of multivariate statistical analysis. This approach uses measures of both central tendency and variation to construct a profile for a given individual. (Central tendency and variation are important for characterizing an individual's writing and both are currently used by FDE's in comparative analyses). Once constructed, different profiles are then compared for individuality using clustermore » analysis; they are grouped so that profiles within a group cannot be differentiated from one another based on the measured characteristics, whereas profiles between groups can. The cluster analysis procedure used here exploits the power of multivariate hypothesis testing. The result is not only a profile grouping but also an indication of statistical significance of the groups generated.« less

Fundamentals of Research Data and Variables: The Devil Is in the Details.

PubMed

Vetter, Thomas R

2017-10-01

Designing, conducting, analyzing, reporting, and interpreting the findings of a research study require an understanding of the types and characteristics of data and variables. Descriptive statistics are typically used simply to calculate, describe, and summarize the collected research data in a logical, meaningful, and efficient way. Inferential statistics allow researchers to make a valid estimate of the association between an intervention and the treatment effect in a specific population, based upon their randomly collected, representative sample data. Categorical data can be either dichotomous or polytomous. Dichotomous data have only 2 categories, and thus are considered binary. Polytomous data have more than 2 categories. Unlike dichotomous and polytomous data, ordinal data are rank ordered, typically based on a numerical scale that is comprised of a small set of discrete classes or integers. Continuous data are measured on a continuum and can have any numeric value over this continuous range. Continuous data can be meaningfully divided into smaller and smaller or finer and finer increments, depending upon the precision of the measurement instrument. Interval data are a form of continuous data in which equal intervals represent equal differences in the property being measured. Ratio data are another form of continuous data, which have the same properties as interval data, plus a true definition of an absolute zero point, and the ratios of the values on the measurement scale make sense. The normal (Gaussian) distribution ("bell-shaped curve") is of the most common statistical distributions. Many applied inferential statistical tests are predicated on the assumption that the analyzed data follow a normal distribution. The histogram and the Q-Q plot are 2 graphical methods to assess if a set of data have a normal distribution (display "normality"). The Shapiro-Wilk test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test are 2 well-known and historically widely applied quantitative methods to assess for data normality. Parametric statistical tests make certain assumptions about the characteristics and/or parameters of the underlying population distribution upon which the test is based, whereas nonparametric tests make fewer or less rigorous assumptions. If the normality test concludes that the study data deviate significantly from a Gaussian distribution, rather than applying a less robust nonparametric test, the problem can potentially be remedied by judiciously and openly: (1) performing a data transformation of all the data values; or (2) eliminating any obvious data outlier(s).

DESIGNA ND ANALYSIS FOR THEMATIC MAP ACCURACY ASSESSMENT: FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES

EPA Science Inventory

Before being used in scientific investigations and policy decisions, thematic maps constructed from remotely sensed data should be subjected to a statistically rigorous accuracy assessment. The three basic components of an accuracy assessment are: 1) the sampling design used to s...

Perspectives on statistics education: observations from statistical consulting in an academic nursing environment.

PubMed

Hayat, Matthew J; Schmiege, Sarah J; Cook, Paul F

2014-04-01

Statistics knowledge is essential for understanding the nursing and health care literature, as well as for applying rigorous science in nursing research. Statistical consultants providing services to faculty and students in an academic nursing program have the opportunity to identify gaps and challenges in statistics education for nursing students. This information may be useful to curriculum committees and statistics educators. This article aims to provide perspective on statistics education stemming from the experiences of three experienced statistics educators who regularly collaborate and consult with nurse investigators. The authors share their knowledge and express their views about data management, data screening and manipulation, statistical software, types of scientific investigation, and advanced statistical topics not covered in the usual coursework. The suggestions provided promote a call for data to study these topics. Relevant data about statistics education can assist educators in developing comprehensive statistics coursework for nursing students. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Evaluation of PCR Systems for Field Screening of Bacillus anthracis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ozanich, Richard M.; Colburn, Heather A.; Victry, Kristin D.

There is little published data on the performance of hand-portable polymerase chain reaction (PCR) instruments that could be used by first responders to determine if a suspicious powder contains a potential biothreat agent. We evaluated five commercially available hand-portable PCR instruments for detection of Bacillus anthracis (Ba). We designed a cost-effective, statistically-based test plan that allows instruments to be evaluated at performance levels ranging from 0.85-0.95 lower confidence bound (LCB) on the probability of detection (POD) at confidence levels of 80-95%. We assessed specificity using purified genomic DNA from 13 Ba strains and 18 Bacillus near neighbors, interference with 22more » common hoax powders encountered in the field, and PCR inhibition when Ba spores were spiked into these powders. Our results indicated that three of the five instruments achieved >0.95 LCB on the POD with 95% confidence at test concentrations of 2,000 genome equivalents/mL (comparable to 2,000 spores/mL), displaying more than sufficient sensitivity for screening suspicious powders. These instruments exhibited no false positive results or PCR inhibition with common hoax powders, and reliably detected Ba spores spiked into common hoax powders, though some issues with instrument controls were observed. Our testing approach enables efficient instrument performance testing to a statistically rigorous and cost-effective test plan to generate performance data that will allow users to make informed decisions regarding the purchase and use of biodetection equipment in the field.« less

Enhancing the quality of thermographic diagnosis in medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuklitskaya, A. G.; Olefir, G. I.

2005-12-01

This paper discusses the possibilities of enhancing the quality of thermographic diagnosis in medicine by increasing the objectivity of the processes of recording, visualization, and interpretation of IR images (thermograms) of patients. A test program is proposed for the diagnosis of oncopathology of the mammary glands, involving standard conditions for recording thermograms, visualization of the IR image in several versions of the color palette and shades of grey, its interpretation in accordance with a rigorously specified algorithm that takes into account the temperature regime in the Zakharin-Head zone of the heart, and the drawing of a conclusion based on a statistical analysis of literature data and the results of a survey of more than 3000 patients of the Minsk City Clinical Oncological Dispensary.

Double-survey estimates of bald eagle populations in Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R.G.; Garrett, Monte G.; Isaacs, F.B.

1999-01-01

The literature on abundance of birds of prey is almost devoid of population estimates with statistical rigor. Therefore, we surveyed bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) populations on the Crooked and lower Columbia rivers of Oregon and used the double-survey method to estimate populations and sighting probabilities for different survey methods (aerial, boat, vehicle) and bald eagle ages (adults vs. subadults). Sighting probabilities were consistently 20%. The results revealed variable and negative bias (percent relative bias = -9 to -70%) of direct counts and emphasized the importance of estimating populations where some measure of precision and ability to conduct inference tests are available. We recommend use of the double-survey method to estimate abundance of bald eagle populations and other raptors in open habitats.

Continuum radiation from active galactic nuclei: A statistical study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isobe, T.; Feigelson, E. D.; Singh, K. P.; Kembhavi, A.

1986-01-01

The physics of the continuum spectrum of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) was examined using a large data set and rigorous statistical methods. A data base was constructed for 469 objects which include radio selected quasars, optically selected quasars, X-ray selected AGNs, BL Lac objects, and optically unidentified compact radio sources. Each object has measurements of its radio, optical, X-ray core continuum luminosity, though many of them are upper limits. Since many radio sources have extended components, the core component were carefully selected out from the total radio luminosity. With survival analysis statistical methods, which can treat upper limits correctly, these data can yield better statistical results than those previously obtained. A variety of statistical tests are performed, such as the comparison of the luminosity functions in different subsamples, and linear regressions of luminosities in different bands. Interpretation of the results leads to the following tentative conclusions: the main emission mechanism of optically selected quasars and X-ray selected AGNs is thermal, while that of BL Lac objects is synchrotron; radio selected quasars may have two different emission mechanisms in the X-ray band; BL Lac objects appear to be special cases of the radio selected quasars; some compact radio sources show the possibility of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) in the optical band; and the spectral index between the optical and the X-ray bands depends on the optical luminosity.

Statistical regularities in art: Relations with visual coding and perception.

PubMed

Graham, Daniel J; Redies, Christoph

2010-07-21

Since at least 1935, vision researchers have used art stimuli to test human response to complex scenes. This is sensible given the "inherent interestingness" of art and its relation to the natural visual world. The use of art stimuli has remained popular, especially in eye tracking studies. Moreover, stimuli in common use by vision scientists are inspired by the work of famous artists (e.g., Mondrians). Artworks are also popular in vision science as illustrations of a host of visual phenomena, such as depth cues and surface properties. However, until recently, there has been scant consideration of the spatial, luminance, and color statistics of artwork, and even less study of ways that regularities in such statistics could affect visual processing. Furthermore, the relationship between regularities in art images and those in natural scenes has received little or no attention. In the past few years, there has been a concerted effort to study statistical regularities in art as they relate to neural coding and visual perception, and art stimuli have begun to be studied in rigorous ways, as natural scenes have been. In this minireview, we summarize quantitative studies of links between regular statistics in artwork and processing in the visual stream. The results of these studies suggest that art is especially germane to understanding human visual coding and perception, and it therefore warrants wider study. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing astronomy misconceptions and achieving national science standards utilizing aspects of multiple intelligences theory in the classroom and the planetarium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarrazine, Angela Renee

The purpose of this study was to incorporate multiple intelligences techniques in both a classroom and planetarium setting to create a significant increase in student learning about the moon and lunar phases. Utilizing a free-response questionnaire and a 25 item multiple choice pre-test/post-test design, this study identified middle school students' misconceptions and measured increases in student learning about the moon and lunar phases. The study spanned two semesters and contained six treatment groups which consisted of both single and multiple interventions. One group only attended the planetarium program. Two groups attended one of two classes a week prior to the planetarium program, and two groups attended one of two classes a week after the planetarium program. The most rigorous treatment group attended a class both a week before and after the planetarium program. Utilizing Rasch analysis techniques and parametric statistical tests, all six groups exhibited statistically significant gains in knowledge at the 0.05 level. There were no significant differences between students who attended only a planetarium program versus a single classroom program. Also, subjects who attended either a pre-planetarium class or a post- planetarium class did not show a statistically significant gain over the planetarium only situation. Equivalent effects on student learning were exhibited by the pre-planetarium class groups and post-planetarium class groups. Therefore, it was determined that the placement of the second intervention does not have a significant impact on student learning. However, a decrease in learning was observed with the addition of a third intervention. Further instruction and testing appeared to hinder student learning. This is perhaps an effect of subject fatigue.

Statistically Assessing Time-Averaged and Paleosecular Variation Field Models Against Paleomagnetic Directional Data Sets. Can Likely non-Zonal Features be Detected in a Robust way ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hulot, G.; Khokhlov, A.

2007-12-01

We recently introduced a method to rigorously test the statistical compatibility of combined time-averaged (TAF) and paleosecular variation (PSV) field models against any lava flow paleomagnetic database (Khokhlov et al., 2001, 2006). Applying this method to test (TAF+PSV) models against synthetic data produced from those shows that the method is very efficient at discriminating models, and very sensitive, provided those data errors are properly taken into account. This prompted us to test a variety of published combined (TAF+PSV) models against a test Bruhnes stable polarity data set extracted from the Quidelleur et al. (1994) data base. Not surprisingly, ignoring data errors leads all models to be rejected. But taking data errors into account leads to the stimulating conclusion that at least one (TAF+PSV) model appears to be compatible with the selected data set, this model being purely axisymmetric. This result shows that in practice also, and with the data bases currently available, the method can discriminate various candidate models and decide which actually best fits a given data set. But it also shows that likely non-zonal signatures of non-homogeneous boundary conditions imposed by the mantle are difficult to identify as statistically robust from paleomagnetic directional data sets. In the present paper, we will discuss the possibility that such signatures could eventually be identified as robust with the help of more recent data sets (such as the one put together under the collaborative "TAFI" effort, see e.g. Johnson et al. abstract #GP21A-0013, AGU Fall Meeting, 2005) or by taking additional information into account (such as the possible coincidence of non-zonal time-averaged field patterns with analogous patterns in the modern field).

On generic obstructions to recovering correct statistics from climate simulations: Homogenization for deterministic maps and multiplicative noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottwald, Georg; Melbourne, Ian

2013-04-01

Whereas diffusion limits of stochastic multi-scale systems have a long and successful history, the case of constructing stochastic parametrizations of chaotic deterministic systems has been much less studied. We present rigorous results of convergence of a chaotic slow-fast system to a stochastic differential equation with multiplicative noise. Furthermore we present rigorous results for chaotic slow-fast maps, occurring as numerical discretizations of continuous time systems. This raises the issue of how to interpret certain stochastic integrals; surprisingly the resulting integrals of the stochastic limit system are generically neither of Stratonovich nor of Ito type in the case of maps. It is shown that the limit system of a numerical discretisation is different to the associated continuous time system. This has important consequences when interpreting the statistics of long time simulations of multi-scale systems - they may be very different to the one of the original continuous time system which we set out to study.

Using GIS to generate spatially balanced random survey designs for natural resource applications.

PubMed

Theobald, David M; Stevens, Don L; White, Denis; Urquhart, N Scott; Olsen, Anthony R; Norman, John B

2007-07-01

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sample apply to the entire population. Probability survey designs should be used in natural resource and environmental management situations because they provide the mathematical foundation for statistical inference. Development of long-term monitoring designs demand survey designs that achieve statistical rigor and are efficient but remain flexible to inevitable logistical or practical constraints during field data collection. Here we describe an approach to probability-based survey design, called the Reversed Randomized Quadrant-Recursive Raster, based on the concept of spatially balanced sampling and implemented in a geographic information system. This provides environmental managers a practical tool to generate flexible and efficient survey designs for natural resource applications. Factors commonly used to modify sampling intensity, such as categories, gradients, or accessibility, can be readily incorporated into the spatially balanced sample design.

Connectopic mapping with resting-state fMRI.

PubMed

Haak, Koen V; Marquand, Andre F; Beckmann, Christian F

2018-04-15

Brain regions are often topographically connected: nearby locations within one brain area connect with nearby locations in another area. Mapping these connection topographies, or 'connectopies' in short, is crucial for understanding how information is processed in the brain. Here, we propose principled, fully data-driven methods for mapping connectopies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquired at rest by combining spectral embedding of voxel-wise connectivity 'fingerprints' with a novel approach to spatial statistical inference. We apply the approach in human primary motor and visual cortex, and show that it can trace biologically plausible, overlapping connectopies in individual subjects that follow these regions' somatotopic and retinotopic maps. As a generic mechanism to perform inference over connectopies, the new spatial statistics approach enables rigorous statistical testing of hypotheses regarding the fine-grained spatial profile of functional connectivity and whether that profile is different between subjects or between experimental conditions. The combined framework offers a fundamental alternative to existing approaches to investigating functional connectivity in the brain, from voxel- or seed-pair wise characterizations of functional association, towards a full, multivariate characterization of spatial topography. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a new pan-European testate amoeba transfer function for reconstructing peatland palaeohydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amesbury, Matthew J.; Swindles, Graeme T.; Bobrov, Anatoly; Charman, Dan J.; Holden, Joseph; Lamentowicz, Mariusz; Mallon, Gunnar; Mazei, Yuri; Mitchell, Edward A. D.; Payne, Richard J.; Roland, Thomas P.; Turner, T. Edward; Warner, Barry G.

2016-11-01

In the decade since the first pan-European testate amoeba-based transfer function for peatland palaeohydrological reconstruction was published, a vast amount of additional data collection has been undertaken by the research community. Here, we expand the pan-European dataset from 128 to 1799 samples, spanning 35° of latitude and 55° of longitude. After the development of a new taxonomic scheme to permit compilation of data from a wide range of contributors and the removal of samples with high pH values, we developed ecological transfer functions using a range of model types and a dataset of ∼1300 samples. We rigorously tested the efficacy of these models using both statistical validation and independent test sets with associated instrumental data. Model performance measured by statistical indicators was comparable to other published models. Comparison to test sets showed that taxonomic resolution did not impair model performance and that the new pan-European model can therefore be used as an effective tool for palaeohydrological reconstruction. Our results question the efficacy of relying on statistical validation of transfer functions alone and support a multi-faceted approach to the assessment of new models. We substantiated recent advice that model outputs should be standardised and presented as residual values in order to focus interpretation on secure directional shifts, avoiding potentially inaccurate conclusions relating to specific water-table depths. The extent and diversity of the dataset highlighted that, at the taxonomic resolution applied, a majority of taxa had broad geographic distributions, though some morphotypes appeared to have restricted ranges.

A statistical physics perspective on criticality in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bury, Thomas

2013-11-01

Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believed to be critical by analogy to physical systems, but little statistically founded evidence has been given. Through a data-based methodology and comparison to simulations inspired by the statistical physics of complex systems, we show that the Dow Jones and index sets are not rigorously critical. However, financial systems are closer to criticality in the crash neighborhood.

Integration of Technology into the Classroom: Case Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, D. LaMont, Ed.; Maddux, Cleborne D., Ed.; Liu, Leping, Ed.

This book contains the following case studies on the integration of technology in education: (1) "First Steps toward a Statistically Generated Information Technology Integration Model" (D. LaMont Johnson and Leping Liu); (2) "Case Studies: Are We Rejecting Rigor or Rediscovering Richness?" (Cleborne D. Maddux); (3)…

A Psychometric Evaluation of the Digital Logic Concept Inventory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herman, Geoffrey L.; Zilles, Craig; Loui, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Concept inventories hold tremendous promise for promoting the rigorous evaluation of teaching methods that might remedy common student misconceptions and promote deep learning. The measurements from concept inventories can be trusted only if the concept inventories are evaluated both by expert feedback and statistical scrutiny (psychometric…

Single toxin dose-response models revisited

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demidenko, Eugene, E-mail: eugened@dartmouth.edu

The goal of this paper is to offer a rigorous analysis of the sigmoid shape single toxin dose-response relationship. The toxin efficacy function is introduced and four special points, including maximum toxin efficacy and inflection points, on the dose-response curve are defined. The special points define three phases of the toxin effect on mortality: (1) toxin concentrations smaller than the first inflection point or (2) larger then the second inflection point imply low mortality rate, and (3) concentrations between the first and the second inflection points imply high mortality rate. Probabilistic interpretation and mathematical analysis for each of the fourmore » models, Hill, logit, probit, and Weibull is provided. Two general model extensions are introduced: (1) the multi-target hit model that accounts for the existence of several vital receptors affected by the toxin, and (2) model with a nonzero mortality at zero concentration to account for natural mortality. Special attention is given to statistical estimation in the framework of the generalized linear model with the binomial dependent variable as the mortality count in each experiment, contrary to the widespread nonlinear regression treating the mortality rate as continuous variable. The models are illustrated using standard EPA Daphnia acute (48 h) toxicity tests with mortality as a function of NiCl or CuSO{sub 4} toxin. - Highlights: • The paper offers a rigorous study of a sigmoid dose-response relationship. • The concentration with highest mortality rate is rigorously defined. • A table with four special points for five morality curves is presented. • Two new sigmoid dose-response models have been introduced. • The generalized linear model is advocated for estimation of sigmoid dose-response relationship.« less

The Effect of a Zoo-Based Experiential Academic Science Program on High School Students' Math and Science Achievement and Perceptions of School Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulkerrin, Elizabeth A.

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of an 11th-grade and 12th-grade zoo-based academic high school experiential science program compared to a same school-district school-based academic high school experiential science program on students' pretest and posttest science, math, and reading achievement, and student perceptions of program relevance, rigor, and relationships. Science coursework delivery site served as the study's independent variable for the two naturally formed groups representing students (n = 18) who completed a zoo-based experiential academic high school science program and students (n = 18) who completed a school-based experiential academic high school science program. Students in the first group, a zoo-based experiential academic high school science program, completed real world, hands-on projects at the zoo while students in the second group, those students who completed a school-based experiential academic high school science program, completed real world, simulated projects in the classroom. These groups comprised the two research arms of the study. Both groups of students were selected from the same school district. The study's two dependent variables were achievement and school climate. Achievement was analyzed using norm-referenced 11th-grade pretest PLAN and 12th-grade posttest ACT test composite scores. Null hypotheses were rejected in the direction of improved test scores for both science program groups---students who completed the zoo-based experiential academic high school science program (p < .001) and students who completed the school-based experiential academic high school science program (p < .001). The posttest-posttest ACT test composite score comparison was not statistically different ( p = .93) indicating program equipoise for students enrolled in both science programs. No overall weighted grade point average score improvement was observed for students in either science group, however, null hypotheses were rejected in the direction of improved science grade point average scores for 11th-grade (p < .01) and 12th-grade (p = .01) students who completed the zoo-based experiential academic high school science program. Null hypotheses were not rejected for between group posttest science grade point average scores and school district criterion reference math and reading test scores. Finally, students who completed the zoo-based experiential academic high school science program had statistically improved pretest-posttest perceptions of program relationship scores (p < .05) and compared to students who completed the school-based experiential academic high school science program had statistically greater posttest perceptions of program relevance (p < .001), perceptions of program rigor (p < .001), and perceptions of program relationships (p < .001).

On testing for spatial correspondence between maps of human brain structure and function.

PubMed

Alexander-Bloch, Aaron F; Shou, Haochang; Liu, Siyuan; Satterthwaite, Theodore D; Glahn, David C; Shinohara, Russell T; Vandekar, Simon N; Raznahan, Armin

2018-06-01

A critical issue in many neuroimaging studies is the comparison between brain maps. Nonetheless, it remains unclear how one should test hypotheses focused on the overlap or spatial correspondence between two or more brain maps. This "correspondence problem" affects, for example, the interpretation of comparisons between task-based patterns of functional activation, resting-state networks or modules, and neuroanatomical landmarks. To date, this problem has been addressed with remarkable variability in terms of methodological approaches and statistical rigor. In this paper, we address the correspondence problem using a spatial permutation framework to generate null models of overlap by applying random rotations to spherical representations of the cortical surface, an approach for which we also provide a theoretical statistical foundation. We use this method to derive clusters of cognitive functions that are correlated in terms of their functional neuroatomical substrates. In addition, using publicly available data, we formally demonstrate the correspondence between maps of task-based functional activity, resting-state fMRI networks and gyral-based anatomical landmarks. We provide open-access code to implement the methods presented for two commonly-used tools for surface based cortical analysis (https://www.github.com/spin-test). This spatial permutation approach constitutes a useful advance over widely-used methods for the comparison of cortical maps, thereby opening new possibilities for the integration of diverse neuroimaging data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards tests of quark-hadron duality with functional analysis and spectral function data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boito, Diogo; Caprini, Irinel

2017-04-01

The presence of terms that violate quark-hadron duality in the expansion of QCD Green's functions is a generally accepted fact. Recently, a new approach was proposed for the study of duality violations (DVs), which exploits the existence of a rigorous lower bound on the functional distance, measured in a certain norm, between a "true" correlator and its approximant calculated theoretically along a contour in the complex energy plane. In the present paper, we pursue the investigation of functional-analysis-based tests towards their application to real spectral function data. We derive a closed analytic expression for the minimal functional distance based on the general weighted L2 norm and discuss its relation with the distance measured in the L∞ norm. Using fake data sets obtained from a realistic toy model in which we allow for covariances inspired from the publicly available ALEPH spectral functions, we obtain, by Monte Carlo simulations, the statistical distribution of the strength parameter that measures the magnitude of the DV term added to the usual operator product expansion. The results show that, if the region with large errors near the end point of the spectrum in τ decays is excluded, the functional-analysis-based tests using either L2 or L∞ norms are able to detect, in a statistically significant way, the presence of DVs in realistic spectral function pseudodata.

Improved key-rate bounds for practical decoy-state quantum-key-distribution systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhen; Zhao, Qi; Razavi, Mohsen; Ma, Xiongfeng

2017-01-01

The decoy-state scheme is the most widely implemented quantum-key-distribution protocol in practice. In order to account for the finite-size key effects on the achievable secret key generation rate, a rigorous statistical fluctuation analysis is required. Originally, a heuristic Gaussian-approximation technique was used for this purpose, which, despite its analytical convenience, was not sufficiently rigorous. The fluctuation analysis has recently been made rigorous by using the Chernoff bound. There is a considerable gap, however, between the key-rate bounds obtained from these techniques and that obtained from the Gaussian assumption. Here we develop a tighter bound for the decoy-state method, which yields a smaller failure probability. This improvement results in a higher key rate and increases the maximum distance over which secure key exchange is possible. By optimizing the system parameters, our simulation results show that our method almost closes the gap between the two previously proposed techniques and achieves a performance similar to that of conventional Gaussian approximations.

Assessing the Ecological Condition of Streams in a Southeastern Brazilian Basin using a Probabilistic Monitoring Design

EPA Science Inventory

Prompt assessment and management actions are required if we are to reduce the current rapid loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide. Statistically valid quantification of the biota and habitat condition in water bodies are prerequisites for rigorous assessment of aquatic biodi...

Acquiring data for large aquatic resource surveys: the art of ompromise among science, logistics, and reality

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is revising its strategy to obtain the information needed to answer questions pertinent to water-quality management efficiently and rigorously at national scales. One tool of this revised strategy is use of statistically based surveys ...

Examining Multidimensional Middle Grade Outcomes after Early Elementary School Grade Retention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hwang, Sophia; Cappella, Elise; Schwartz, Kate

2016-01-01

Recently, researchers have begun to employ rigorous statistical methods and developmentally-informed theories to evaluate outcomes for students retained in non-kindergarten early elementary school. However, the majority of this research focuses on academic outcomes. Gaps remain regarding retention's effects on psychosocial outcomes important to…

Exploration of the Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection Approach to Control Design Synthesis for Large Space Structures.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-02-01

Energy Analysis , a branch of dynamic modal analysis developed for analyzing acoustic vibration problems, its present stage of development embodies a...Maximum Entropy Stochastic Modelling and Reduced-Order Design Synthesis is a rigorous new approach to this class of problems. Inspired by Statistical

Beyond Composite Scores and Cronbach's Alpha: Advancing Methodological Rigor in Recreation Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gagnon, Ryan J.; Stone, Garrett A.; Garst, Barry A.

2017-01-01

Critically examining common statistical approaches and their strengths and weaknesses is an important step in advancing recreation and leisure sciences. To continue this critical examination and to inform methodological decision making, this study compared three approaches to determine how alternative approaches may result in contradictory…

Universal Algorithm for Identification of Fractional Brownian Motion. A Case of Telomere Subdiffusion

PubMed Central

Burnecki, Krzysztof; Kepten, Eldad; Janczura, Joanna; Bronshtein, Irena; Garini, Yuval; Weron, Aleksander

2012-01-01

We present a systematic statistical analysis of the recently measured individual trajectories of fluorescently labeled telomeres in the nucleus of living human cells. The experiments were performed in the U2OS cancer cell line. We propose an algorithm for identification of the telomere motion. By expanding the previously published data set, we are able to explore the dynamics in six time orders, a task not possible earlier. As a result, we establish a rigorous mathematical characterization of the stochastic process and identify the basic mathematical mechanisms behind the telomere motion. We find that the increments of the motion are stationary, Gaussian, ergodic, and even more chaotic—mixing. Moreover, the obtained memory parameter estimates, as well as the ensemble average mean square displacement reveal subdiffusive behavior at all time spans. All these findings statistically prove a fractional Brownian motion for the telomere trajectories, which is confirmed by a generalized p-variation test. Taking into account the biophysical nature of telomeres as monomers in the chromatin chain, we suggest polymer dynamics as a sufficient framework for their motion with no influence of other models. In addition, these results shed light on other studies of telomere motion and the alternative telomere lengthening mechanism. We hope that identification of these mechanisms will allow the development of a proper physical and biological model for telomere subdynamics. This array of tests can be easily implemented to other data sets to enable quick and accurate analysis of their statistical characteristics. PMID:23199912

SWATH Mass Spectrometry Performance Using Extended Peptide MS/MS Assay Libraries.

PubMed

Wu, Jemma X; Song, Xiaomin; Pascovici, Dana; Zaw, Thiri; Care, Natasha; Krisp, Christoph; Molloy, Mark P

2016-07-01

The use of data-independent acquisition methods such as SWATH for mass spectrometry based proteomics is usually performed with peptide MS/MS assay libraries which enable identification and quantitation of peptide peak areas. Reference assay libraries can be generated locally through information dependent acquisition, or obtained from community data repositories for commonly studied organisms. However, there have been no studies performed to systematically evaluate how locally generated or repository-based assay libraries affect SWATH performance for proteomic studies. To undertake this analysis, we developed a software workflow, SwathXtend, which generates extended peptide assay libraries by integration with a local seed library and delivers statistical analysis of SWATH-quantitative comparisons. We designed test samples using peptides from a yeast extract spiked into peptides from human K562 cell lysates at three different ratios to simulate protein abundance change comparisons. SWATH-MS performance was assessed using local and external assay libraries of varying complexities and proteome compositions. These experiments demonstrated that local seed libraries integrated with external assay libraries achieve better performance than local assay libraries alone, in terms of the number of identified peptides and proteins and the specificity to detect differentially abundant proteins. Our findings show that the performance of extended assay libraries is influenced by the MS/MS feature similarity of the seed and external libraries, while statistical analysis using multiple testing corrections increases the statistical rigor needed when searching against large extended assay libraries. © 2016 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

SWATH Mass Spectrometry Performance Using Extended Peptide MS/MS Assay Libraries*

PubMed Central

Wu, Jemma X.; Song, Xiaomin; Pascovici, Dana; Zaw, Thiri; Care, Natasha; Krisp, Christoph; Molloy, Mark P.

2016-01-01

The use of data-independent acquisition methods such as SWATH for mass spectrometry based proteomics is usually performed with peptide MS/MS assay libraries which enable identification and quantitation of peptide peak areas. Reference assay libraries can be generated locally through information dependent acquisition, or obtained from community data repositories for commonly studied organisms. However, there have been no studies performed to systematically evaluate how locally generated or repository-based assay libraries affect SWATH performance for proteomic studies. To undertake this analysis, we developed a software workflow, SwathXtend, which generates extended peptide assay libraries by integration with a local seed library and delivers statistical analysis of SWATH-quantitative comparisons. We designed test samples using peptides from a yeast extract spiked into peptides from human K562 cell lysates at three different ratios to simulate protein abundance change comparisons. SWATH-MS performance was assessed using local and external assay libraries of varying complexities and proteome compositions. These experiments demonstrated that local seed libraries integrated with external assay libraries achieve better performance than local assay libraries alone, in terms of the number of identified peptides and proteins and the specificity to detect differentially abundant proteins. Our findings show that the performance of extended assay libraries is influenced by the MS/MS feature similarity of the seed and external libraries, while statistical analysis using multiple testing corrections increases the statistical rigor needed when searching against large extended assay libraries. PMID:27161445

Ergodicity of Truncated Stochastic Navier Stokes with Deterministic Forcing and Dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.

2016-10-01

Turbulence in idealized geophysical flows is a very rich and important topic. The anisotropic effects of explicit deterministic forcing, dispersive effects from rotation due to the β -plane and F-plane, and topography together with random forcing all combine to produce a remarkable number of realistic phenomena. These effects have been studied through careful numerical experiments in the truncated geophysical models. These important results include transitions between coherent jets and vortices, and direct and inverse turbulence cascades as parameters are varied, and it is a contemporary challenge to explain these diverse statistical predictions. Here we contribute to these issues by proving with full mathematical rigor that for any values of the deterministic forcing, the β - and F-plane effects and topography, with minimal stochastic forcing, there is geometric ergodicity for any finite Galerkin truncation. This means that there is a unique smooth invariant measure which attracts all statistical initial data at an exponential rate. In particular, this rigorous statistical theory guarantees that there are no bifurcations to multiple stable and unstable statistical steady states as geophysical parameters are varied in contrast to claims in the applied literature. The proof utilizes a new statistical Lyapunov function to account for enstrophy exchanges between the statistical mean and the variance fluctuations due to the deterministic forcing. It also requires careful proofs of hypoellipticity with geophysical effects and uses geometric control theory to establish reachability. To illustrate the necessity of these conditions, a two-dimensional example is developed which has the square of the Euclidean norm as the Lyapunov function and is hypoelliptic with nonzero noise forcing, yet fails to be reachable or ergodic.

Scientific rigor through videogames.

PubMed

Treuille, Adrien; Das, Rhiju

2014-11-01

Hypothesis-driven experimentation - the scientific method - can be subverted by fraud, irreproducibility, and lack of rigorous predictive tests. A robust solution to these problems may be the 'massive open laboratory' model, recently embodied in the internet-scale videogame EteRNA. Deploying similar platforms throughout biology could enforce the scientific method more broadly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Presumptive and Confirmatory Drug Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Craig

2005-01-01

The majority of drug testings are first done with some kind of qualitative presumptive tests. After the qualitative presumptive tests are performed, a confirmatory test is necessary which demonstrates to the students the rigor needed to conclusively identify a substance.

Statistical comparison of a hybrid approach with approximate and exact inference models for Fusion 2+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. David; Wiesenfeld, Eric; Gelfand, Andrew

2007-04-01

One of the greatest challenges in modern combat is maintaining a high level of timely Situational Awareness (SA). In many situations, computational complexity and accuracy considerations make the development and deployment of real-time, high-level inference tools very difficult. An innovative hybrid framework that combines Bayesian inference, in the form of Bayesian Networks, and Possibility Theory, in the form of Fuzzy Logic systems, has recently been introduced to provide a rigorous framework for high-level inference. In previous research, the theoretical basis and benefits of the hybrid approach have been developed. However, lacking is a concrete experimental comparison of the hybrid framework with traditional fusion methods, to demonstrate and quantify this benefit. The goal of this research, therefore, is to provide a statistical analysis on the comparison of the accuracy and performance of hybrid network theory, with pure Bayesian and Fuzzy systems and an inexact Bayesian system approximated using Particle Filtering. To accomplish this task, domain specific models will be developed under these different theoretical approaches and then evaluated, via Monte Carlo Simulation, in comparison to situational ground truth to measure accuracy and fidelity. Following this, a rigorous statistical analysis of the performance results will be performed, to quantify the benefit of hybrid inference to other fusion tools.

Host and parasite morphology influence congruence between host and parasite phylogenies.

PubMed

Sweet, Andrew D; Bush, Sarah E; Gustafsson, Daniel R; Allen, Julie M; DiBlasi, Emily; Skeen, Heather R; Weckstein, Jason D; Johnson, Kevin P

2018-03-23

Comparisons of host and parasite phylogenies often show varying degrees of phylogenetic congruence. However, few studies have rigorously explored the factors driving this variation. Multiple factors such as host or parasite morphology may govern the degree of phylogenetic congruence. An ideal analysis for understanding the factors correlated with congruence would focus on a diverse host-parasite system for increased variation and statistical power. In this study, we focused on the Brueelia-complex, a diverse and widespread group of feather lice that primarily parasitise songbirds. We generated a molecular phylogeny of the lice and compared this tree with a phylogeny of their avian hosts. We also tested for the contribution of each host-parasite association to the overall congruence. The two trees overall were significantly congruent, but the contribution of individual associations to this congruence varied. To understand this variation, we developed a novel approach to test whether host, parasite or biogeographic factors were statistically associated with patterns of congruence. Both host plumage dimorphism and parasite ecomorphology were associated with patterns of congruence, whereas host body size, other plumage traits and biogeography were not. Our results lay the framework for future studies to further elucidate how these factors influence the process of host-parasite coevolution. Copyright © 2018 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of PCR Systems for Field Screening of Bacillus anthracis

PubMed Central

Ozanich, Richard M.; Colburn, Heather A.; Victry, Kristin D.; Bartholomew, Rachel A.; Arce, Jennifer S.; Heredia-Langner, Alejandro; Jarman, Kristin; Kreuzer, Helen W.

2017-01-01

There is little published data on the performance of hand-portable polymerase chain reaction (PCR) systems that can be used by first responders to determine if a suspicious powder contains a potential biothreat agent. We evaluated 5 commercially available hand-portable PCR instruments for detection of Bacillus anthracis. We used a cost-effective, statistically based test plan to evaluate systems at performance levels ranging from 0.85-0.95 lower confidence bound (LCB) of the probability of detection (POD) at confidence levels of 80% to 95%. We assessed specificity using purified genomic DNA from 13 B. anthracis strains and 18 Bacillus near neighbors, potential interference with 22 suspicious powders that are commonly encountered in the field by first responders during suspected biothreat incidents, and the potential for PCR inhibition when B. anthracis spores were spiked into these powders. Our results indicate that 3 of the 5 systems achieved 0.95 LCB of the probability of detection with 95% confidence levels at test concentrations of 2,000 genome equivalents/mL (GE/mL), which is comparable to 2,000 spores/mL. This is more than sufficient sensitivity for screening visible suspicious powders. These systems exhibited no false-positive results or PCR inhibition with common suspicious powders and reliably detected B. anthracis spores spiked into these powders, though some issues with assay controls were observed. Our testing approach enables efficient performance testing using a statistically rigorous and cost-effective test plan to generate performance data that allow users to make informed decisions regarding the purchase and use of field biodetection equipment. PMID:28192050

Mass spectrometry-based protein identification with accurate statistical significance assignment.

PubMed

Alves, Gelio; Yu, Yi-Kuo

2015-03-01

Assigning statistical significance accurately has become increasingly important as metadata of many types, often assembled in hierarchies, are constructed and combined for further biological analyses. Statistical inaccuracy of metadata at any level may propagate to downstream analyses, undermining the validity of scientific conclusions thus drawn. From the perspective of mass spectrometry-based proteomics, even though accurate statistics for peptide identification can now be achieved, accurate protein level statistics remain challenging. We have constructed a protein ID method that combines peptide evidences of a candidate protein based on a rigorous formula derived earlier; in this formula the database P-value of every peptide is weighted, prior to the final combination, according to the number of proteins it maps to. We have also shown that this protein ID method provides accurate protein level E-value, eliminating the need of using empirical post-processing methods for type-I error control. Using a known protein mixture, we find that this protein ID method, when combined with the Sorić formula, yields accurate values for the proportion of false discoveries. In terms of retrieval efficacy, the results from our method are comparable with other methods tested. The source code, implemented in C++ on a linux system, is available for download at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/qmbp/qmbp_ms/RAId/RAId_Linux_64Bit. Published by Oxford University Press 2014. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Scaling up to address data science challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendelberger, Joanne R.

Statistics and Data Science provide a variety of perspectives and technical approaches for exploring and understanding Big Data. Partnerships between scientists from different fields such as statistics, machine learning, computer science, and applied mathematics can lead to innovative approaches for addressing problems involving increasingly large amounts of data in a rigorous and effective manner that takes advantage of advances in computing. Here, this article will explore various challenges in Data Science and will highlight statistical approaches that can facilitate analysis of large-scale data including sampling and data reduction methods, techniques for effective analysis and visualization of large-scale simulations, and algorithmsmore » and procedures for efficient processing.« less

Scaling up to address data science challenges

DOE PAGES

Wendelberger, Joanne R.

2017-04-27

Statistics and Data Science provide a variety of perspectives and technical approaches for exploring and understanding Big Data. Partnerships between scientists from different fields such as statistics, machine learning, computer science, and applied mathematics can lead to innovative approaches for addressing problems involving increasingly large amounts of data in a rigorous and effective manner that takes advantage of advances in computing. Here, this article will explore various challenges in Data Science and will highlight statistical approaches that can facilitate analysis of large-scale data including sampling and data reduction methods, techniques for effective analysis and visualization of large-scale simulations, and algorithmsmore » and procedures for efficient processing.« less

On Statistical Approaches for Demonstrating Analytical Similarity in the Presence of Correlation.

PubMed

Yang, Harry; Novick, Steven; Burdick, Richard K

Analytical similarity is the foundation for demonstration of biosimilarity between a proposed product and a reference product. For this assessment, currently the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends a tiered system in which quality attributes are categorized into three tiers commensurate with their risk and approaches of varying statistical rigor are subsequently used for the three-tier quality attributes. Key to the analyses of Tiers 1 and 2 quality attributes is the establishment of equivalence acceptance criterion and quality range. For particular licensure applications, the FDA has provided advice on statistical methods for demonstration of analytical similarity. For example, for Tier 1 assessment, an equivalence test can be used based on an equivalence margin of 1.5 σ R , where σ R is the reference product variability estimated by the sample standard deviation S R from a sample of reference lots. The quality range for demonstrating Tier 2 analytical similarity is of the form X̄ R ± K × σ R where the constant K is appropriately justified. To demonstrate Tier 2 analytical similarity, a large percentage (e.g., 90%) of test product must fall in the quality range. In this paper, through both theoretical derivations and simulations, we show that when the reference drug product lots are correlated, the sample standard deviation S R underestimates the true reference product variability σ R As a result, substituting S R for σ R in the Tier 1 equivalence acceptance criterion and the Tier 2 quality range inappropriately reduces the statistical power and the ability to declare analytical similarity. Also explored is the impact of correlation among drug product lots on Type I error rate and power. Three methods based on generalized pivotal quantities are introduced, and their performance is compared against a two-one-sided tests (TOST) approach. Finally, strategies to mitigate risk of correlation among the reference products lots are discussed. A biosimilar is a generic version of the original biological drug product. A key component of a biosimilar development is the demonstration of analytical similarity between the biosimilar and the reference product. Such demonstration relies on application of statistical methods to establish a similarity margin and appropriate test for equivalence between the two products. This paper discusses statistical issues with demonstration of analytical similarity and provides alternate approaches to potentially mitigate these problems. © PDA, Inc. 2016.

The effect of rigor mortis on the passage of erythrocytes and fluid through the myocardium of isolated dog hearts.

PubMed

Nevalainen, T J; Gavin, J B; Seelye, R N; Whitehouse, S; Donnell, M

1978-07-01

The effect of normal and artificially induced rigor mortis on the vascular passage of erythrocytes and fluid through isolated dog hearts was studied. Increased rigidity of 6-mm thick transmural sections through the centre of the posterior papillary muscle was used as an indication of rigor. The perfusibility of the myocardium was tested by injecting 10 ml of 1% sodium fluorescein in Hanks solution into the circumflex branch of the left coronary artery. In prerigor hearts (20 minute incubation) fluorescein perfused the myocardium evenly whether or not it was preceded by an injection of 10 ml of heparinized dog blood. Rigor mortis developed in all hearts after 90 minutes incubation or within 20 minutes of perfusing the heart with 50 ml of 5 mM iodoacetate in Hanks solution. Fluorescein injected into hearts in rigor did not enter the posterior papillary muscle and adjacent subendocardium whether or not it was preceded by heparinized blood. Thus the vascular occlusion caused by rigor in the dog heart appears to be so effective that it prevents flow into the subendocardium of small soluble ions such as fluorescein.

The effect of a workplace violence training program for generalist nurses in the acute hospital setting: A quasi-experimental study.

PubMed

Lamont, Scott; Brunero, Scott

2018-05-19

Workplace violence prevalence has attracted significant attention within the international nursing literature. Little attention to non-mental health settings and a lack of evaluation rigor have been identified within review literature. To examine the effects of a workplace violence training program in relation to risk assessment and management practices, de-escalation skills, breakaway techniques, and confidence levels, within an acute hospital setting. A quasi-experimental study of nurses using pretest-posttest measurements of educational objectives and confidence levels, with two week follow-up. A 440 bed metropolitan tertiary referral hospital in Sydney, Australia. Nurses working in specialties identified as a 'high risk' for violence. A pre-post-test design was used with participants attending a one day workshop. The workshop evaluation comprised the use of two validated questionnaires: the Continuing Professional Development Reaction questionnaire, and the Confidence in Coping with Patient Aggression Instrument. Descriptive and inferential statistics were calculated. The paired t-test was used to assess the statistical significance of changes in the clinical behaviour intention and confidence scores from pre- to post-intervention. Cohen's d effect sizes were calculated to determine the extent of the significant results. Seventy-eight participants completed both pre- and post-workshop evaluation questionnaires. Statistically significant increases in behaviour intention scores were found in fourteen of the fifteen constructs relating to the three broad workshop objectives, and confidence ratings, with medium to large effect sizes observed in some constructs. A significant increase in overall confidence in coping with patient aggression was also found post-test with large effect size. Positive results were observed from the workplace violence training. Training needs to be complimented by a multi-faceted organisational approach which includes governance, quality and review processes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying significant gene‐environment interactions using a combination of screening testing and hierarchical false discovery rate control

PubMed Central

Shen, Li; Saykin, Andrew J.; Williams, Scott M.; Moore, Jason H.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Although gene‐environment (G× E) interactions play an important role in many biological systems, detecting these interactions within genome‐wide data can be challenging due to the loss in statistical power incurred by multiple hypothesis correction. To address the challenge of poor power and the limitations of existing multistage methods, we recently developed a screening‐testing approach for G× E interaction detection that combines elastic net penalized regression with joint estimation to support a single omnibus test for the presence of G× E interactions. In our original work on this technique, however, we did not assess type I error control or power and evaluated the method using just a single, small bladder cancer data set. In this paper, we extend the original method in two important directions and provide a more rigorous performance evaluation. First, we introduce a hierarchical false discovery rate approach to formally assess the significance of individual G× E interactions. Second, to support the analysis of truly genome‐wide data sets, we incorporate a score statistic‐based prescreening step to reduce the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms prior to fitting the first stage penalized regression model. To assess the statistical properties of our method, we compare the type I error rate and statistical power of our approach with competing techniques using both simple simulation designs as well as designs based on real disease architectures. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of our approach to identify biologically plausible SNP‐education interactions relative to Alzheimer's disease status using genome‐wide association study data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). PMID:27578615

Sex Differences in the Response of Children with ADHD to Once-Daily Formulations of Methylphenidate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sonuga-Barke, J. S.; Coghill, David; Markowitz, John S.; Swanson, James M.; Vandenberghe, Mieke; Hatch, Simon J.

2007-01-01

Objectives: Studies of sex differences in methylphenidate response by children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder have lacked methodological rigor and statistical power. This paper reports an examination of sex differences based on further analysis of data from a comparison of two once-daily methylphenidate formulations (the COMACS…

The Role of Data Analysis Software in Graduate Programs in Education and Post-Graduate Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harwell, Michael

2018-01-01

The importance of data analysis software in graduate programs in education and post-graduate educational research is self-evident. However the role of this software in facilitating supererogated statistical practice versus "cookbookery" is unclear. The need to rigorously document the role of data analysis software in students' graduate…

A Study of Statistics through Tootsie Pops

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aaberg, Shelby; Vitosh, Jason; Smith, Wendy

2016-01-01

A classic TV commercial once asked, "How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Tootsie Pop?" The narrator claims, "The world may never know" (Tootsie Roll 2012), but an Internet search returns a multitude of answers, some of which include rigorous systematic approaches by academics to address the…

Meeting the needs of an ever-demanding market.

PubMed

Rigby, Richard

2002-04-01

Balancing cost and performance in packaging is critical. This article outlines techniques to assist in this whilst delivering added value and product differentiation. The techniques include a rigorous statistical process capable of delivering cost reduction and improved quality and a computer modelling process that can save time when validating new packaging options.

Exploring the Use of Participatory Information to Improve Monitoring, Mapping and Assessment of Aquatic Ecosystem Services at Landascape Scales

EPA Science Inventory

Traditionally, the EPA has monitored aquatic ecosystems using statistically rigorous sample designs and intensive field efforts which provide high quality datasets. But by their nature they leave many aquatic systems unsampled, follow a top down approach, have a long lag between ...

Critical Examination of Candidates' Diversity Competence: Rigorous and Systematic Assessment of Candidates' Efficacy to Teach Diverse Student Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benton-Borghi, Beatrice Hope; Chang, Young Mi

2011-01-01

The National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES, 2010) continues to report substantial underachievement of diverse student populations in the nation's schools. After decades of focus on diversity and multicultural education, with integrating field and clinical practice, candidates continue to graduate without adequate knowledge, skills and…

State College- and Career-Ready High School Graduation Requirements. Updated

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Achieve, Inc., 2013

2013-01-01

Research by Achieve, ACT, and others suggests that for high school graduates to be prepared for success in a wide range of postsecondary settings, they need to take four years of challenging mathematics--covering Advanced Algebra; Geometry; and data, probability, and statistics content--and four years of rigorous English aligned with college- and…

High School Redesign. Diplomas Count, 2016. Education Week. Volume 35, Number 33

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Virginia B., Ed.

2016-01-01

This year's report focuses on efforts to redesign high schools. Those include incorporating student voice, implementing a rigorous and relevant curriculum, embracing career exploration, and more. The report also includes the latest statistics on the nation's overall, on-time high school graduation rate. Articles include: (1) To Build a Better High…

Alarms about structural alerts.

PubMed

Alves, Vinicius; Muratov, Eugene; Capuzzi, Stephen; Politi, Regina; Low, Yen; Braga, Rodolpho; Zakharov, Alexey V; Sedykh, Alexander; Mokshyna, Elena; Farag, Sherif; Andrade, Carolina; Kuz'min, Victor; Fourches, Denis; Tropsha, Alexander

2016-08-21

Structural alerts are widely accepted in chemical toxicology and regulatory decision support as a simple and transparent means to flag potential chemical hazards or group compounds into categories for read-across. However, there has been a growing concern that alerts disproportionally flag too many chemicals as toxic, which questions their reliability as toxicity markers. Conversely, the rigorously developed and properly validated statistical QSAR models can accurately and reliably predict the toxicity of a chemical; however, their use in regulatory toxicology has been hampered by the lack of transparency and interpretability. We demonstrate that contrary to the common perception of QSAR models as "black boxes" they can be used to identify statistically significant chemical substructures (QSAR-based alerts) that influence toxicity. We show through several case studies, however, that the mere presence of structural alerts in a chemical, irrespective of the derivation method (expert-based or QSAR-based), should be perceived only as hypotheses of possible toxicological effect. We propose a new approach that synergistically integrates structural alerts and rigorously validated QSAR models for a more transparent and accurate safety assessment of new chemicals.

Shear Recovery Accuracy in Weak-Lensing Analysis with the Elliptical Gauss-Laguerre Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakajima, Reiko; Bernstein, Gary

2007-04-01

We implement the elliptical Gauss-Laguerre (EGL) galaxy-shape measurement method proposed by Bernstein & Jarvis and quantify the shear recovery accuracy in weak-lensing analysis. This method uses a deconvolution fitting scheme to remove the effects of the point-spread function (PSF). The test simulates >107 noisy galaxy images convolved with anisotropic PSFs and attempts to recover an input shear. The tests are designed to be immune to statistical (random) distributions of shapes, selection biases, and crowding, in order to test more rigorously the effects of detection significance (signal-to-noise ratio [S/N]), PSF, and galaxy resolution. The systematic error in shear recovery is divided into two classes, calibration (multiplicative) and additive, with the latter arising from PSF anisotropy. At S/N > 50, the deconvolution method measures the galaxy shape and input shear to ~1% multiplicative accuracy and suppresses >99% of the PSF anisotropy. These systematic errors increase to ~4% for the worst conditions, with poorly resolved galaxies at S/N simeq 20. The EGL weak-lensing analysis has the best demonstrated accuracy to date, sufficient for the next generation of weak-lensing surveys.

Double Dutch: A Tool for Designing Combinatorial Libraries of Biological Systems.

PubMed

Roehner, Nicholas; Young, Eric M; Voigt, Christopher A; Gordon, D Benjamin; Densmore, Douglas

2016-06-17

Recently, semirational approaches that rely on combinatorial assembly of characterized DNA components have been used to engineer biosynthetic pathways. In practice, however, it is not practical to assemble and test millions of pathway variants in order to elucidate how different DNA components affect the behavior of a pathway. To address this challenge, we apply a rigorous mathematical approach known as design of experiments (DOE) that can be used to construct empirical models of system behavior without testing all variants. To support this approach, we have developed a tool named Double Dutch, which uses a formal grammar and heuristic algorithms to automate the process of DOE library design. Compared to designing by hand, Double Dutch enables users to more efficiently and scalably design libraries of pathway variants that can be used in a DOE framework and uniquely provides a means to flexibly balance design considerations of statistical analysis, construction cost, and risk of homologous recombination, thereby demonstrating the utility of automating decision making when faced with complex design trade-offs.

Methodological Issues in Trials of Complementary and Alternative Medicine Interventions

PubMed Central

Sikorskii, Alla; Wyatt, Gwen; Victorson, David; Faulkner, Gwen; Rahbar, Mohammad Hossein

2010-01-01

Background Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) use is widespread among cancer patients. Information on safety and efficacy of CAM therapies is needed for both patients and health care providers. Well-designed randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of CAM therapy interventions can inform both clinical research and practice. Objectives To review important issues that affect the design of RCTs for CAM interventions. Methods Using the methods component of the Consolidated Standards for Reporting Trials (CONSORT) as a guiding framework, and a National Cancer Institute-funded reflexology study as an exemplar, methodological issues related to participants, intervention, objectives, outcomes, sample size, randomization, blinding, and statistical methods were reviewed. Discussion Trials of CAM interventions designed and implemented according to appropriate methodological standards will facilitate the needed scientific rigor in CAM research. Interventions in CAM can be tested using proposed methodology, and the results of testing will inform nursing practice in providing safe and effective supportive care and improving the well-being of patients. PMID:19918155

Peer Review Documents Related to the Evaluation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BMDS is one of the Agency's premier tools for estimating risk assessments, therefore the validity and reliability of its statistical models are of paramount importance. This page provides links to peer review and expert summaries of the BMDS application and its models as they were developed and eventually released documenting the rigorous review process taken to provide the best science tools available for statistical modeling. This page provides links to peer reviews and expert summaries of the BMDS applications and its models as they were developed and eventually released.

A criterion for establishing life limits. [for Space Shuttle Main Engine service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skopp, G. H.; Porter, A. A.

1990-01-01

The development of a rigorous statistical method that would utilize hardware-demonstrated reliability to evaluate hardware capability and provide ground rules for safe flight margin is discussed. A statistical-based method using the Weibull/Weibayes cumulative distribution function is described. Its advantages and inadequacies are pointed out. Another, more advanced procedure, Single Flight Reliability (SFR), determines a life limit which ensures that the reliability of any single flight is never less than a stipulated value at a stipulated confidence level. Application of the SFR method is illustrated.

On Improving the Quality and Interpretation of Environmental Assessments using Statistical Analysis and Geographic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karuppiah, R.; Faldi, A.; Laurenzi, I.; Usadi, A.; Venkatesh, A.

2014-12-01

An increasing number of studies are focused on assessing the environmental footprint of different products and processes, especially using life cycle assessment (LCA). This work shows how combining statistical methods and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with environmental analyses can help improve the quality of results and their interpretation. Most environmental assessments in literature yield single numbers that characterize the environmental impact of a process/product - typically global or country averages, often unchanging in time. In this work, we show how statistical analysis and GIS can help address these limitations. For example, we demonstrate a method to separately quantify uncertainty and variability in the result of LCA models using a power generation case study. This is important for rigorous comparisons between the impacts of different processes. Another challenge is lack of data that can affect the rigor of LCAs. We have developed an approach to estimate environmental impacts of incompletely characterized processes using predictive statistical models. This method is applied to estimate unreported coal power plant emissions in several world regions. There is also a general lack of spatio-temporal characterization of the results in environmental analyses. For instance, studies that focus on water usage do not put in context where and when water is withdrawn. Through the use of hydrological modeling combined with GIS, we quantify water stress on a regional and seasonal basis to understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users. Another example where it is important to consider regional dependency of impacts is when characterizing how agricultural land occupation affects biodiversity in a region. We developed a data-driven methodology used in conjuction with GIS to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between the impacts of growing different crops on different species in various biomes of the world.

A Rigorous Test of the Fit of the Circumplex Model to Big Five Personality Data: Theoretical and Methodological Issues and Two Large Sample Empirical Tests.

PubMed

DeGeest, David Scott; Schmidt, Frank

2015-01-01

Our objective was to apply the rigorous test developed by Browne (1992) to determine whether the circumplex model fits Big Five personality data. This test has yet to be applied to personality data. Another objective was to determine whether blended items explained correlations among the Big Five traits. We used two working adult samples, the Eugene-Springfield Community Sample and the Professional Worker Career Experience Survey. Fit to the circumplex was tested via Browne's (1992) procedure. Circumplexes were graphed to identify items with loadings on multiple traits (blended items), and to determine whether removing these items changed five-factor model (FFM) trait intercorrelations. In both samples, the circumplex structure fit the FFM traits well. Each sample had items with dual-factor loadings (8 items in the first sample, 21 in the second). Removing blended items had little effect on construct-level intercorrelations among FFM traits. We conclude that rigorous tests show that the fit of personality data to the circumplex model is good. This finding means the circumplex model is competitive with the factor model in understanding the organization of personality traits. The circumplex structure also provides a theoretically and empirically sound rationale for evaluating intercorrelations among FFM traits. Even after eliminating blended items, FFM personality traits remained correlated.

Analysis of temporal gene expression profiles: clustering by simulated annealing and determining the optimal number of clusters.

PubMed

Lukashin, A V; Fuchs, R

2001-05-01

Cluster analysis of genome-wide expression data from DNA microarray hybridization studies has proved to be a useful tool for identifying biologically relevant groupings of genes and samples. In the present paper, we focus on several important issues related to clustering algorithms that have not yet been fully studied. We describe a simple and robust algorithm for the clustering of temporal gene expression profiles that is based on the simulated annealing procedure. In general, this algorithm guarantees to eventually find the globally optimal distribution of genes over clusters. We introduce an iterative scheme that serves to evaluate quantitatively the optimal number of clusters for each specific data set. The scheme is based on standard approaches used in regular statistical tests. The basic idea is to organize the search of the optimal number of clusters simultaneously with the optimization of the distribution of genes over clusters. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm has been evaluated by means of a reverse engineering experiment, that is, a situation in which the correct distribution of genes over clusters is known a priori. The employment of this statistically rigorous test has shown that our algorithm places greater than 90% genes into correct clusters. Finally, the algorithm has been tested on real gene expression data (expression changes during yeast cell cycle) for which the fundamental patterns of gene expression and the assignment of genes to clusters are well understood from numerous previous studies.

The fourth radiation transfer model intercomparison (RAMI-IV): Proficiency testing of canopy reflectance models with ISO-13528

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlowski, J.-L.; Pinty, B.; Lopatka, M.; Atzberger, C.; Buzica, D.; Chelle, M.; Disney, M.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J.-P.; Gerboles, M.; Gobron, N.; Grau, E.; Huang, H.; Kallel, A.; Kobayashi, H.; Lewis, P. E.; Qin, W.; Schlerf, M.; Stuckens, J.; Xie, D.

2013-07-01

The radiation transfer model intercomparison (RAMI) activity aims at assessing the reliability of physics-based radiative transfer (RT) models under controlled experimental conditions. RAMI focuses on computer simulation models that mimic the interactions of radiation with plant canopies. These models are increasingly used in the development of satellite retrieval algorithms for terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs). Rather than applying ad hoc performance metrics, RAMI-IV makes use of existing ISO standards to enhance the rigor of its protocols evaluating the quality of RT models. ISO-13528 was developed "to determine the performance of individual laboratories for specific tests or measurements." More specifically, it aims to guarantee that measurement results fall within specified tolerance criteria from a known reference. Of particular interest to RAMI is that ISO-13528 provides guidelines for comparisons where the true value of the target quantity is unknown. In those cases, "truth" must be replaced by a reliable "conventional reference value" to enable absolute performance tests. This contribution will show, for the first time, how the ISO-13528 standard developed by the chemical and physical measurement communities can be applied to proficiency testing of computer simulation models. Step by step, the pre-screening of data, the identification of reference solutions, and the choice of proficiency statistics will be discussed and illustrated with simulation results from the RAMI-IV "abstract canopy" scenarios. Detailed performance statistics of the participating RT models will be provided and the role of the accuracy of the reference solutions as well as the choice of the tolerance criteria will be highlighted.

Systematic review of the quality of prognosis studies in systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Lim, Lily S H; Lee, Senq J; Feldman, Brian M; Gladman, Dafna D; Pullenayegum, Eleanor; Uleryk, Elizabeth; Silverman, Earl D

2014-10-01

Prognosis studies examine outcomes and/or seek to identify predictors or factors associated with outcomes. Many prognostic factors have been identified in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), but few have been consistently found across studies. We hypothesized that this is due to a lack of rigor of study designs. This study aimed to systematically assess the methodologic quality of prognosis studies in SLE. A search of prognosis studies in SLE was performed using MEDLINE and Embase, from January 1990 to June 2011. A representative sample of 150 articles was selected using a random number generator and assessed by 2 reviewers. Each study was assessed by a risk of bias tool according to 6 domains: study participation, study attrition, measurement of prognostic factors, measurement of outcomes, measurement/adjustment for confounders, and appropriateness of statistical analysis. Information about missing data was also collected. A cohort design was used in 71% of studies. High risk of bias was found in 65% of studies for confounders, 57% for study participation, 56% for attrition, 36% for statistical analyses, 20% for prognostic factors, and 18% for outcome. Missing covariate or outcome information was present in half of the studies. Only 6 studies discussed reasons for missing data and 2 imputed missing data. Lack of rigorous study design, especially in addressing confounding, study participation and attrition, and inadequately handled missing data, has limited the quality of prognosis studies in SLE. Future prognosis studies should be designed with consideration of these factors to improve methodologic rigor. Copyright © 2014 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Are cosmological data sets consistent with each other within the Λ cold dark matter model?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raveri, Marco

2016-02-01

We use a complete and rigorous statistical indicator to measure the level of concordance between cosmological data sets, without relying on the inspection of the marginal posterior distribution of some selected parameters. We apply this test to state of the art cosmological data sets, to assess their agreement within the Λ cold dark matter model. We find that there is a good level of concordance between all the experiments with one noticeable exception. There is substantial evidence of tension between the cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization measurements of the Planck satellite and the data from the CFHTLenS weak lensing survey even when applying ultraconservative cuts. These results robustly point toward the possibility of having unaccounted systematic effects in the data, an incomplete modeling of the cosmological predictions or hints toward new physical phenomena.

Combined slope ratio analysis and linear-subtraction: An extension of the Pearce ratio method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Waal, Sybrand A.

1996-07-01

A new technique, called combined slope ratio analysis, has been developed by extending the Pearce element ratio or conserved-denominator method (Pearce, 1968) to its logical conclusions. If two stoichiometric substances are mixed and certain chemical components are uniquely contained in either one of the two mixing substances, then by treating these unique components as conserved, the composition of the substance not containing the relevant component can be accurately calculated within the limits allowed by analytical and geological error. The calculated composition can then be subjected to rigorous statistical testing using the linear-subtraction method recently advanced by Woronow (1994). Application of combined slope ratio analysis to the rocks of the Uwekahuna Laccolith, Hawaii, USA, and the lavas of the 1959-summit eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, USA, yields results that are consistent with field observations.

Maximum likelihood: Extracting unbiased information from complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garlaschelli, Diego; Loffredo, Maria I.

2008-07-01

The choice of free parameters in network models is subjective, since it depends on what topological properties are being monitored. However, we show that the maximum likelihood (ML) principle indicates a unique, statistically rigorous parameter choice, associated with a well-defined topological feature. We then find that, if the ML condition is incompatible with the built-in parameter choice, network models turn out to be intrinsically ill defined or biased. To overcome this problem, we construct a class of safely unbiased models. We also propose an extension of these results that leads to the fascinating possibility to extract, only from topological data, the “hidden variables” underlying network organization, making them “no longer hidden.” We test our method on World Trade Web data, where we recover the empirical gross domestic product using only topological information.

Practical considerations in Bayesian fusion of point sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Kevin; Minor, Christian

2012-06-01

Sensor data fusion is and has been a topic of considerable research, but rigorous and quantitative understanding of the benefits of fusing specific types of sensor data remains elusive. Often, sensor fusion is performed on an ad hoc basis with the assumption that overall detection capabilities will improve, only to discover later, after expensive and time consuming laboratory and/or field testing that little advantage was gained. The work presented here will discuss these issues with theoretical and practical considerations in the context of fusing chemical sensors with binary outputs. Results are given for the potential performance gains one could expect with such systems, as well as the practical difficulties involved in implementing an optimal Bayesian fusion strategy with realistic scenarios. Finally, a discussion of the biases that inaccurate statistical estimates introduce into the results and their consequences is presented.

A psychometric evaluation of the digital logic concept inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Geoffrey L.; Zilles, Craig; Loui, Michael C.

2014-10-01

Concept inventories hold tremendous promise for promoting the rigorous evaluation of teaching methods that might remedy common student misconceptions and promote deep learning. The measurements from concept inventories can be trusted only if the concept inventories are evaluated both by expert feedback and statistical scrutiny (psychometric evaluation). Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory provide two psychometric frameworks for evaluating the quality of assessment tools. We discuss how these theories can be applied to assessment tools generally and then apply them to the Digital Logic Concept Inventory (DLCI). We demonstrate that the DLCI is sufficiently reliable for research purposes when used in its entirety and as a post-course assessment of students' conceptual understanding of digital logic. The DLCI can also discriminate between students across a wide range of ability levels, providing the most information about weaker students' ability levels.

Establishing Interventions via a Theory-Driven Single Case Design Research Cycle

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Riley-Tillman, T. Chris; Kratochwill, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

Recent studies have suggested single case design (SCD) intervention research is subject to publication bias, wherein studies are more likely to be published if they possess large or statistically significant effects and use rigorous experimental methods. The nature of SCD and the purposes for which it might be used could suggest that large effects…

Applications of satellite-derived disturbance information in support of sustainable forest management

Treesearch

Sean Healey; Warren Cohen; Gretchen Moisen

2007-01-01

The need for current information about the effects of fires, harvest, and storms is evident in many areas of sustainable forest management. While there are several potential sources of this information, each source has its limitations. Generally speaking, the statistical rigor associated with traditional forest sampling is an important asset in any monitoring effort....

Preschool Center Care Quality Effects on Academic Achievement: An Instrumental Variables Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Auger, Anamarie; Farkas, George; Burchinal, Margaret R.; Duncan, Greg J.; Vandell, Deborah Lowe

2014-01-01

Much of child care research has focused on the effects of the quality of care in early childhood settings on children's school readiness skills. Although researchers increased the statistical rigor of their approaches over the past 15 years, researchers' ability to draw causal inferences has been limited because the studies are based on…

Statistical linearization for multi-input/multi-output nonlinearities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ching-An; Cheng, Victor H. L.

1991-01-01

Formulas are derived for the computation of the random input-describing functions for MIMO nonlinearities; these straightforward and rigorous derivations are based on the optimal mean square linear approximation. The computations involve evaluations of multiple integrals. It is shown that, for certain classes of nonlinearities, multiple-integral evaluations are obviated and the computations are significantly simplified.

Slow off the Mark: Elementary School Teachers and the Crisis in STEM Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Epstein, Diana; Miller, Raegen T.

2011-01-01

Prospective teachers can typically obtain a license to teach elementary school without taking a rigorous college-level STEM class such as calculus, statistics, or chemistry, and without demonstrating a solid grasp of mathematics knowledge, scientific knowledge, or the nature of scientific inquiry. This is not a recipe for ensuring students have…

Measuring the Unmeasurable: Upholding Rigor in Quantitative Studies of Personal and Social Development in Outdoor Adventure Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scrutton, Roger; Beames, Simon

2015-01-01

Outdoor adventure education (OAE) has a long history of being credited with the personal and social development (PSD) of its participants. PSD is notoriously difficult to measure quantitatively, yet stakeholders demand statistical evidence that given approaches to eliciting PSD are effective in their methods. Rightly or wrongly, many stakeholders…

Unperturbed Schelling Segregation in Two or Three Dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barmpalias, George; Elwes, Richard; Lewis-Pye, Andrew

2016-09-01

Schelling's models of segregation, first described in 1969 (Am Econ Rev 59:488-493, 1969) are among the best known models of self-organising behaviour. Their original purpose was to identify mechanisms of urban racial segregation. But his models form part of a family which arises in statistical mechanics, neural networks, social science, and beyond, where populations of agents interact on networks. Despite extensive study, unperturbed Schelling models have largely resisted rigorous analysis, prior results generally focusing on variants in which noise is introduced into the dynamics, the resulting system being amenable to standard techniques from statistical mechanics or stochastic evolutionary game theory (Young in Individual strategy and social structure: an evolutionary theory of institutions, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1998). A series of recent papers (Brandt et al. in: Proceedings of the 44th annual ACM symposium on theory of computing (STOC 2012), 2012); Barmpalias et al. in: 55th annual IEEE symposium on foundations of computer science, Philadelphia, 2014, J Stat Phys 158:806-852, 2015), has seen the first rigorous analyses of 1-dimensional unperturbed Schelling models, in an asymptotic framework largely unknown in statistical mechanics. Here we provide the first such analysis of 2- and 3-dimensional unperturbed models, establishing most of the phase diagram, and answering a challenge from Brandt et al. in: Proceedings of the 44th annual ACM symposium on theory of computing (STOC 2012), 2012).

Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, Germán

2011-02-01

Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with < β> = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

Universal algorithm for identification of fractional Brownian motion. A case of telomere subdiffusion.

PubMed

Burnecki, Krzysztof; Kepten, Eldad; Janczura, Joanna; Bronshtein, Irena; Garini, Yuval; Weron, Aleksander

2012-11-07

We present a systematic statistical analysis of the recently measured individual trajectories of fluorescently labeled telomeres in the nucleus of living human cells. The experiments were performed in the U2OS cancer cell line. We propose an algorithm for identification of the telomere motion. By expanding the previously published data set, we are able to explore the dynamics in six time orders, a task not possible earlier. As a result, we establish a rigorous mathematical characterization of the stochastic process and identify the basic mathematical mechanisms behind the telomere motion. We find that the increments of the motion are stationary, Gaussian, ergodic, and even more chaotic--mixing. Moreover, the obtained memory parameter estimates, as well as the ensemble average mean square displacement reveal subdiffusive behavior at all time spans. All these findings statistically prove a fractional Brownian motion for the telomere trajectories, which is confirmed by a generalized p-variation test. Taking into account the biophysical nature of telomeres as monomers in the chromatin chain, we suggest polymer dynamics as a sufficient framework for their motion with no influence of other models. In addition, these results shed light on other studies of telomere motion and the alternative telomere lengthening mechanism. We hope that identification of these mechanisms will allow the development of a proper physical and biological model for telomere subdynamics. This array of tests can be easily implemented to other data sets to enable quick and accurate analysis of their statistical characteristics. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Qst–Fst Comparisons: A Neutrality Test for the Evolution of the G Matrix in Structured Populations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Chapuis, Elodie; Goudet, Jérôme

2008-01-01

Neutrality tests in quantitative genetics provide a statistical framework for the detection of selection on polygenic traits in wild populations. However, the existing method based on comparisons of divergence at neutral markers and quantitative traits (Qst–Fst) suffers from several limitations that hinder a clear interpretation of the results with typical empirical designs. In this article, we propose a multivariate extension of this neutrality test based on empirical estimates of the among-populations (D) and within-populations (G) covariance matrices by MANOVA. A simple pattern is expected under neutrality: D = 2Fst/(1 − Fst)G, so that neutrality implies both proportionality of the two matrices and a specific value of the proportionality coefficient. This pattern is tested using Flury's framework for matrix comparison [common principal-component (CPC) analysis], a well-known tool in G matrix evolution studies. We show the importance of using a Bartlett adjustment of the test for the small sample sizes typically found in empirical studies. We propose a dual test: (i) that the proportionality coefficient is not different from its neutral expectation [2Fst/(1 − Fst)] and (ii) that the MANOVA estimates of mean square matrices between and among populations are proportional. These two tests combined provide a more stringent test for neutrality than the classic Qst–Fst comparison and avoid several statistical problems. Extensive simulations of realistic empirical designs suggest that these tests correctly detect the expected pattern under neutrality and have enough power to efficiently detect mild to strong selection (homogeneous, heterogeneous, or mixed) when it is occurring on a set of traits. This method also provides a rigorous and quantitative framework for disentangling the effects of different selection regimes and of drift on the evolution of the G matrix. We discuss practical requirements for the proper application of our test in empirical studies and potential extensions. PMID:18245845

Sputum fungal smear

MedlinePlus

... in the test sample. Some labs use different measurements or test different samples. Talk to your doctor ... A.D.A.M. follows rigorous standards of quality and accountability. A.D.A.M. is among ...

Increasing rigor in NMR-based metabolomics through validated and open source tools

PubMed Central

Eghbalnia, Hamid R; Romero, Pedro R; Westler, William M; Baskaran, Kumaran; Ulrich, Eldon L; Markley, John L

2016-01-01

The metabolome, the collection of small molecules associated with an organism, is a growing subject of inquiry, with the data utilized for data-intensive systems biology, disease diagnostics, biomarker discovery, and the broader characterization of small molecules in mixtures. Owing to their close proximity to the functional endpoints that govern an organism’s phenotype, metabolites are highly informative about functional states. The field of metabolomics identifies and quantifies endogenous and exogenous metabolites in biological samples. Information acquired from nuclear magnetic spectroscopy (NMR), mass spectrometry (MS), and the published literature, as processed by statistical approaches, are driving increasingly wider applications of metabolomics. This review focuses on the role of databases and software tools in advancing the rigor, robustness, reproducibility, and validation of metabolomics studies. PMID:27643760

Increasing rigor in NMR-based metabolomics through validated and open source tools.

PubMed

Eghbalnia, Hamid R; Romero, Pedro R; Westler, William M; Baskaran, Kumaran; Ulrich, Eldon L; Markley, John L

2017-02-01

The metabolome, the collection of small molecules associated with an organism, is a growing subject of inquiry, with the data utilized for data-intensive systems biology, disease diagnostics, biomarker discovery, and the broader characterization of small molecules in mixtures. Owing to their close proximity to the functional endpoints that govern an organism's phenotype, metabolites are highly informative about functional states. The field of metabolomics identifies and quantifies endogenous and exogenous metabolites in biological samples. Information acquired from nuclear magnetic spectroscopy (NMR), mass spectrometry (MS), and the published literature, as processed by statistical approaches, are driving increasingly wider applications of metabolomics. This review focuses on the role of databases and software tools in advancing the rigor, robustness, reproducibility, and validation of metabolomics studies. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

International Seed Testing Association List of stabilized plant names, edition 6

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Seed-testing laboratories determine the quality of seed lots in national and international seed commerce. Those services most commonly requested include purity analysis, noxious-weed seed detection, and viability tests. Rigorous procedures for performing various tests on specific crops have been est...

High and low neurobehavior disinhibition clusters within locales: implications for community efforts to prevent substance use disorder.

PubMed

Ridenour, Ty A; Reynolds, Maureen; Ahlqvist, Ola; Zhai, Zu Wei; Kirisci, Levent; Vanyukov, Michael M; Tarter, Ralph E

2013-05-01

Knowledge of where substance use and other such behavioral problems frequently occur has aided policing, public health, and urban planning strategies to reduce such behaviors. Identifying locales characterized by high childhood neurobehavioral disinhibition (ND), a strong predictor of substance use and consequent disorder (SUD), may likewise improve prevention efforts. The distribution of ND in 10-12-year olds was mapped to metropolitan Pittsburgh, PA, and tested for clustering within locales. The 738 participating families represented the population in terms of economic status, race, and population distribution. ND was measured using indicators of executive cognitive function, emotion regulation, and behavior control. Innovative geospatial analyzes statistically tested clustering of ND within locales while accounting for geographic barriers (large rivers, major highways), parental SUD severity, and neighborhood quality. Clustering of youth with high and low ND occurred in specific locales. Accounting for geographic barriers better delineated where high ND is concentrated, areas which also tended to be characterized by greater parental SUD severity and poorer neighborhood quality. Offering programs that have been demonstrated to improve inhibitory control in locales where youth have high ND on average may reduce youth risk for SUD and other problem behaviors. As demonstrated by the present results, geospatial analysis of youth risk factors, frequently used in community coalition strategies, may be improved with greater statistical and measurement rigor.

Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen L.

2016-12-01

A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM < 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM > 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

Statistical Learning Theory for High Dimensional Prediction: Application to Criterion-Keyed Scale Development

PubMed Central

Chapman, Benjamin P.; Weiss, Alexander; Duberstein, Paul

2016-01-01

Statistical learning theory (SLT) is the statistical formulation of machine learning theory, a body of analytic methods common in “big data” problems. Regression-based SLT algorithms seek to maximize predictive accuracy for some outcome, given a large pool of potential predictors, without overfitting the sample. Research goals in psychology may sometimes call for high dimensional regression. One example is criterion-keyed scale construction, where a scale with maximal predictive validity must be built from a large item pool. Using this as a working example, we first introduce a core principle of SLT methods: minimization of expected prediction error (EPE). Minimizing EPE is fundamentally different than maximizing the within-sample likelihood, and hinges on building a predictive model of sufficient complexity to predict the outcome well, without undue complexity leading to overfitting. We describe how such models are built and refined via cross-validation. We then illustrate how three common SLT algorithms–Supervised Principal Components, Regularization, and Boosting—can be used to construct a criterion-keyed scale predicting all-cause mortality, using a large personality item pool within a population cohort. Each algorithm illustrates a different approach to minimizing EPE. Finally, we consider broader applications of SLT predictive algorithms, both as supportive analytic tools for conventional methods, and as primary analytic tools in discovery phase research. We conclude that despite their differences from the classic null-hypothesis testing approach—or perhaps because of them–SLT methods may hold value as a statistically rigorous approach to exploratory regression. PMID:27454257

Scalable privacy-preserving data sharing methodology for genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Yu, Fei; Fienberg, Stephen E; Slavković, Aleksandra B; Uhler, Caroline

2014-08-01

The protection of privacy of individual-level information in genome-wide association study (GWAS) databases has been a major concern of researchers following the publication of "an attack" on GWAS data by Homer et al. (2008). Traditional statistical methods for confidentiality and privacy protection of statistical databases do not scale well to deal with GWAS data, especially in terms of guarantees regarding protection from linkage to external information. The more recent concept of differential privacy, introduced by the cryptographic community, is an approach that provides a rigorous definition of privacy with meaningful privacy guarantees in the presence of arbitrary external information, although the guarantees may come at a serious price in terms of data utility. Building on such notions, Uhler et al. (2013) proposed new methods to release aggregate GWAS data without compromising an individual's privacy. We extend the methods developed in Uhler et al. (2013) for releasing differentially-private χ(2)-statistics by allowing for arbitrary number of cases and controls, and for releasing differentially-private allelic test statistics. We also provide a new interpretation by assuming the controls' data are known, which is a realistic assumption because some GWAS use publicly available data as controls. We assess the performance of the proposed methods through a risk-utility analysis on a real data set consisting of DNA samples collected by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium and compare the methods with the differentially-private release mechanism proposed by Johnson and Shmatikov (2013). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fast Bayesian approach for modal identification using free vibration data, Part I - Most probable value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Feng-Liang; Ni, Yan-Chun; Au, Siu-Kui; Lam, Heung-Fai

2016-03-01

The identification of modal properties from field testing of civil engineering structures is becoming economically viable, thanks to the advent of modern sensor and data acquisition technology. Its demand is driven by innovative structural designs and increased performance requirements of dynamic-prone structures that call for a close cross-checking or monitoring of their dynamic properties and responses. Existing instrumentation capabilities and modal identification techniques allow structures to be tested under free vibration, forced vibration (known input) or ambient vibration (unknown broadband loading). These tests can be considered complementary rather than competing as they are based on different modeling assumptions in the identification model and have different implications on costs and benefits. Uncertainty arises naturally in the dynamic testing of structures due to measurement noise, sensor alignment error, modeling error, etc. This is especially relevant in field vibration tests because the test condition in the field environment can hardly be controlled. In this work, a Bayesian statistical approach is developed for modal identification using the free vibration response of structures. A frequency domain formulation is proposed that makes statistical inference based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the data in a selected frequency band. This significantly simplifies the identification model because only the modes dominating the frequency band need to be included. It also legitimately ignores the information in the excluded frequency bands that are either irrelevant or difficult to model, thereby significantly reducing modeling error risk. The posterior probability density function (PDF) of the modal parameters is derived rigorously from modeling assumptions and Bayesian probability logic. Computational difficulties associated with calculating the posterior statistics, including the most probable value (MPV) and the posterior covariance matrix, are addressed. Fast computational algorithms for determining the MPV are proposed so that the method can be practically implemented. In the companion paper (Part II), analytical formulae are derived for the posterior covariance matrix so that it can be evaluated without resorting to finite difference method. The proposed method is verified using synthetic data. It is also applied to modal identification of full-scale field structures.

The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS) for standardized and reproducible statistical analysis.

PubMed

Zheng, Jie; Harris, Marcelline R; Masci, Anna Maria; Lin, Yu; Hero, Alfred; Smith, Barry; He, Yongqun

2016-09-14

Statistics play a critical role in biological and clinical research. However, most reports of scientific results in the published literature make it difficult for the reader to reproduce the statistical analyses performed in achieving those results because they provide inadequate documentation of the statistical tests and algorithms applied. The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS) is put forward here as a step towards solving this problem. The terms in OBCS including 'data collection', 'data transformation in statistics', 'data visualization', 'statistical data analysis', and 'drawing a conclusion based on data', cover the major types of statistical processes used in basic biological research and clinical outcome studies. OBCS is aligned with the Basic Formal Ontology (BFO) and extends the Ontology of Biomedical Investigations (OBI), an OBO (Open Biological and Biomedical Ontologies) Foundry ontology supported by over 20 research communities. Currently, OBCS comprehends 878 terms, representing 20 BFO classes, 403 OBI classes, 229 OBCS specific classes, and 122 classes imported from ten other OBO ontologies. We discuss two examples illustrating how the ontology is being applied. In the first (biological) use case, we describe how OBCS was applied to represent the high throughput microarray data analysis of immunological transcriptional profiles in human subjects vaccinated with an influenza vaccine. In the second (clinical outcomes) use case, we applied OBCS to represent the processing of electronic health care data to determine the associations between hospital staffing levels and patient mortality. Our case studies were designed to show how OBCS can be used for the consistent representation of statistical analysis pipelines under two different research paradigms. Other ongoing projects using OBCS for statistical data processing are also discussed. The OBCS source code and documentation are available at: https://github.com/obcs/obcs . The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS) is a community-based open source ontology in the domain of biological and clinical statistics. OBCS is a timely ontology that represents statistics-related terms and their relations in a rigorous fashion, facilitates standard data analysis and integration, and supports reproducible biological and clinical research.

Statistical ecology comes of age.

PubMed

Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

2014-12-01

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

Statistical ecology comes of age

PubMed Central

Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

2014-01-01

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151

Disseminated tuberculosis

MedlinePlus

... lesions Interferon-gamma release blood test, such as the QFT-Gold test to test for prior exposure to TB ... verify that A.D.A.M. follows rigorous standards of quality and accountability. A.D.A.M. is among the first to achieve this important distinction for online ...

Multiplexed chemostat system for quantification of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in anaerobic digestion

PubMed Central

Plouchart, Diane; Guizard, Guillaume; Latrille, Eric

2018-01-01

Continuous cultures in chemostats have proven their value in microbiology, microbial ecology, systems biology and bioprocess engineering, among others. In these systems, microbial growth and ecosystem performance can be quantified under stable and defined environmental conditions. This is essential when linking microbial diversity to ecosystem function. Here, a new system to test this link in anaerobic, methanogenic microbial communities is introduced. Rigorously replicated experiments or a suitable experimental design typically require operating several chemostats in parallel. However, this is labor intensive, especially when measuring biogas production. Commercial solutions for multiplying reactors performing continuous anaerobic digestion exist but are expensive and use comparably large reactor volumes, requiring the preparation of substantial amounts of media. Here, a flexible system of Lab-scale Automated and Multiplexed Anaerobic Chemostat system (LAMACs) with a working volume of 200 mL is introduced. Sterile feeding, biomass wasting and pressure monitoring are automated. One module containing six reactors fits the typical dimensions of a lab bench. Thanks to automation, time required for reactor operation and maintenance are reduced compared to traditional lab-scale systems. Several modules can be used together, and so far the parallel operation of 30 reactors was demonstrated. The chemostats are autoclavable. Parameters like reactor volume, flow rates and operating temperature can be freely set. The robustness of the system was tested in a two-month long experiment in which three inocula in four replicates, i.e., twelve continuous digesters were monitored. Statistically significant differences in the biogas production between inocula were observed. In anaerobic digestion, biogas production and consequently pressure development in a closed environment is a proxy for ecosystem performance. The precision of the pressure measurement is thus crucial. The measured maximum and minimum rates of gas production could be determined at the same precision. The LAMACs is a tool that enables us to put in practice the often-demanded need for replication and rigorous testing in microbial ecology as well as bioprocess engineering. PMID:29518106

A Comparison of Alternate Approaches to Creating Indices of Academic Rigor. Research Report 2012-11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beatty, Adam S.; Sackett, Paul R.; Kuncel, Nathan R.; Kiger, Thomas B.; Rigdon, Jana L.; Shen, Winny; Walmsley, Philip T.

2013-01-01

In recent decades, there has been an increasing emphasis placed on college graduation rates and reducing attrition due to the social and economic benefits, at both the individual and national levels, proposed to accrue from a more highly educated population (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2011). In the United States in particular, there is a concern…

Comparing the Rigor of Compressed Format Courses to Their Regular Semester Counterparts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lutes, Lyndell; Davies, Randall

2013-01-01

This study compared workloads of undergraduate courses taught in 16-week and 8-week sessions. A statistically significant difference in workload was found between the two. Based on survey data from approximately 29,000 students, on average students spent about 17 minutes more per credit per week on 16-week courses than on similar 8-week courses.…

A new assessment of the alleged link between element 115 and element 117 decay chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, U.; Rudolph, D.; Fahlander, C.; Golubev, P.; Sarmiento, L. G.; Åberg, S.; Block, M.; Düllmann, Ch. E.; Heßberger, F. P.; Kratz, J. V.; Yakushev, A.

2016-09-01

A novel rigorous statistical treatment is applied to available data (May 9, 2016) from search and spectroscopy experiments on the elements with atomic numbers Z = 115 and Z = 117. The present analysis implies that the hitherto proposed cross-reaction link between α-decay chains associated with the isotopes 293117 and 289115 is highly improbable.

Uses of Multivariate Analytical Techniques in Online and Blended Business Education: An Assessment of Current Practice and Recommendations for Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arbaugh, J. B.; Hwang, Alvin

2013-01-01

Seeking to assess the analytical rigor of empirical research in management education, this article reviews the use of multivariate statistical techniques in 85 studies of online and blended management education over the past decade and compares them with prescriptions offered by both the organization studies and educational research communities.…

Statistical rigor in LiDAR-assisted estimation of aboveground forest biomass

Treesearch

Timothy G. Gregoire; Erik Næsset; Ronald E. McRoberts; Göran Ståhl; Hans Andersen; Terje Gobakken; Liviu Ene; Ross Nelson

2016-01-01

For many decades remotely sensed data have been used as a source of auxiliary information when conducting regional or national surveys of forest resources. In the past decade, airborne scanning LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) has emerged as a promising tool for sample surveys aimed at improving estimation of aboveground forest biomass. This technology is now...

40 CFR Appendix 6 to Subpart A of... - Reverse Phase Extraction (RPE) Method for Detection of Oil Contamination in Non-Aqueous Drilling...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... rigorous statistical experimental design and interpretation (Reference 16.4). 14.0Pollution Prevention 14... fluids. 1.4This method has been designed to show positive contamination for 5% of representative crude....1Sample collection bottles/jars—New, pre-cleaned bottles/jars, lot-certified to be free of artifacts...

40 CFR Appendix 6 to Subpart A of... - Reverse Phase Extraction (RPE) Method for Detection of Oil Contamination in Non-Aqueous Drilling...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... rigorous statistical experimental design and interpretation (Reference 16.4). 14.0Pollution Prevention 14... fluids. 1.4This method has been designed to show positive contamination for 5% of representative crude....1Sample collection bottles/jars—New, pre-cleaned bottles/jars, lot-certified to be free of artifacts...

40 CFR Appendix 6 to Subpart A of... - Reverse Phase Extraction (RPE) Method for Detection of Oil Contamination in Non-Aqueous Drilling...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... rigorous statistical experimental design and interpretation (Reference 16.4). 14.0Pollution Prevention 14... fluids. 1.4This method has been designed to show positive contamination for 5% of representative crude....1Sample collection bottles/jars—New, pre-cleaned bottles/jars, lot-certified to be free of artifacts...

40 CFR Appendix 6 to Subpart A of... - Reverse Phase Extraction (RPE) Method for Detection of Oil Contamination in Non-Aqueous Drilling...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... rigorous statistical experimental design and interpretation (Reference 16.4). 14.0Pollution Prevention 14... oil contamination in drilling fluids. 1.4This method has been designed to show positive contamination....1Sample collection bottles/jars—New, pre-cleaned bottles/jars, lot-certified to be free of artifacts...

Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

2010-01-01

This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

Academic Rigor and Economic Value: GED[R] and High School Students' Perceptions and Misperceptions of the GED[R] vs. the High School Diploma

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horne, Lela M.; Rachal, John R.; Shelley, Kyna

2012-01-01

A mixed methods framework utilized quantitative and qualitative data to determine whether statistically significant differences existed between high school and GED[R] student perceptions of credential value. An exploratory factor analysis (n=326) extracted four factors and then a MANOVA procedure was performed with a stratified quota sample…

Adult asthma disease management: an analysis of studies, approaches, outcomes, and methods.

PubMed

Maciejewski, Matthew L; Chen, Shih-Yin; Au, David H

2009-07-01

Disease management has been implemented for patients with asthma in various ways. We describe the approaches to and components of adult asthma disease-management interventions, examine the outcomes evaluated, and assess the quality of published studies. We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsychInfo, and Cochrane databases for studies published in 1986 through 2008, on adult asthma management. With the studies that met our inclusion criteria, we examined the clinical, process, medication, economic, and patient-reported outcomes reported, and the study designs, provider collaboration during the studies, and statistical methods. Twenty-nine articles describing 27 studies satisfied our inclusion criteria. There was great variation in the content, extent of collaboration between physician and non-physician providers responsible for intervention delivery, and outcomes examined across the 27 studies. Because of limitations in the design of 22 of the 27 studies, the differences in outcomes assessed, and the lack of rigorous statistical adjustment, we could not draw definitive conclusions about the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of the asthma disease-management programs or which approach was most effective. Few well-designed studies with rigorous evaluations have been conducted to evaluate disease-management interventions for adults with asthma. Current evidence is insufficient to recommend any particular intervention.

On the probability density function and characteristic function moments of image steganalysis in the log prediction error wavelet subband

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Zhenkun; Li, Xiaolong; Luo, Xiangyang

2017-01-01

Extracting informative statistic features is the most essential technical issue of steganalysis. Among various steganalysis methods, probability density function (PDF) and characteristic function (CF) moments are two important types of features due to the excellent ability for distinguishing the cover images from the stego ones. The two types of features are quite similar in definition. The only difference is that the PDF moments are computed in the spatial domain, while the CF moments are computed in the Fourier-transformed domain. Then, the comparison between PDF and CF moments is an interesting question of steganalysis. Several theoretical results have been derived, and CF moments are proved better than PDF moments in some cases. However, in the log prediction error wavelet subband of wavelet decomposition, some experiments show that the result is opposite and lacks a rigorous explanation. To solve this problem, a comparison result based on the rigorous proof is presented: the first-order PDF moment is proved better than the CF moment, while the second-order CF moment is better than the PDF moment. It tries to open the theoretical discussion on steganalysis and the question of finding suitable statistical features.

Methodological reporting in qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods health services research articles.

PubMed

Wisdom, Jennifer P; Cavaleri, Mary A; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J; Green, Carla A

2012-04-01

Methodologically sound mixed methods research can improve our understanding of health services by providing a more comprehensive picture of health services than either method can alone. This study describes the frequency of mixed methods in published health services research and compares the presence of methodological components indicative of rigorous approaches across mixed methods, qualitative, and quantitative articles. All empirical articles (n = 1,651) published between 2003 and 2007 from four top-ranked health services journals. All mixed methods articles (n = 47) and random samples of qualitative and quantitative articles were evaluated to identify reporting of key components indicating rigor for each method, based on accepted standards for evaluating the quality of research reports (e.g., use of p-values in quantitative reports, description of context in qualitative reports, and integration in mixed method reports). We used chi-square tests to evaluate differences between article types for each component. Mixed methods articles comprised 2.85 percent (n = 47) of empirical articles, quantitative articles 90.98 percent (n = 1,502), and qualitative articles 6.18 percent (n = 102). There was a statistically significant difference (χ(2) (1) = 12.20, p = .0005, Cramer's V = 0.09, odds ratio = 1.49 [95% confidence interval = 1,27, 1.74]) in the proportion of quantitative methodological components present in mixed methods compared to quantitative papers (21.94 versus 47.07 percent, respectively) but no statistically significant difference (χ(2) (1) = 0.02, p = .89, Cramer's V = 0.01) in the proportion of qualitative methodological components in mixed methods compared to qualitative papers (21.34 versus 25.47 percent, respectively). Few published health services research articles use mixed methods. The frequency of key methodological components is variable. Suggestions are provided to increase the transparency of mixed methods studies and the presence of key methodological components in published reports. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Methodological Reporting in Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Health Services Research Articles

PubMed Central

Wisdom, Jennifer P; Cavaleri, Mary A; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J; Green, Carla A

2012-01-01

Objectives Methodologically sound mixed methods research can improve our understanding of health services by providing a more comprehensive picture of health services than either method can alone. This study describes the frequency of mixed methods in published health services research and compares the presence of methodological components indicative of rigorous approaches across mixed methods, qualitative, and quantitative articles. Data Sources All empirical articles (n = 1,651) published between 2003 and 2007 from four top-ranked health services journals. Study Design All mixed methods articles (n = 47) and random samples of qualitative and quantitative articles were evaluated to identify reporting of key components indicating rigor for each method, based on accepted standards for evaluating the quality of research reports (e.g., use of p-values in quantitative reports, description of context in qualitative reports, and integration in mixed method reports). We used chi-square tests to evaluate differences between article types for each component. Principal Findings Mixed methods articles comprised 2.85 percent (n = 47) of empirical articles, quantitative articles 90.98 percent (n = 1,502), and qualitative articles 6.18 percent (n = 102). There was a statistically significant difference (χ2(1) = 12.20, p = .0005, Cramer's V = 0.09, odds ratio = 1.49 [95% confidence interval = 1,27, 1.74]) in the proportion of quantitative methodological components present in mixed methods compared to quantitative papers (21.94 versus 47.07 percent, respectively) but no statistically significant difference (χ2(1) = 0.02, p = .89, Cramer's V = 0.01) in the proportion of qualitative methodological components in mixed methods compared to qualitative papers (21.34 versus 25.47 percent, respectively). Conclusion Few published health services research articles use mixed methods. The frequency of key methodological components is variable. Suggestions are provided to increase the transparency of mixed methods studies and the presence of key methodological components in published reports. PMID:22092040

Analyzing thematic maps and mapping for accuracy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenfield, G.H.

1982-01-01

Two problems which exist while attempting to test the accuracy of thematic maps and mapping are: (1) evaluating the accuracy of thematic content, and (2) evaluating the effects of the variables on thematic mapping. Statistical analysis techniques are applicable to both these problems and include techniques for sampling the data and determining their accuracy. In addition, techniques for hypothesis testing, or inferential statistics, are used when comparing the effects of variables. A comprehensive and valid accuracy test of a classification project, such as thematic mapping from remotely sensed data, includes the following components of statistical analysis: (1) sample design, including the sample distribution, sample size, size of the sample unit, and sampling procedure; and (2) accuracy estimation, including estimation of the variance and confidence limits. Careful consideration must be given to the minimum sample size necessary to validate the accuracy of a given. classification category. The results of an accuracy test are presented in a contingency table sometimes called a classification error matrix. Usually the rows represent the interpretation, and the columns represent the verification. The diagonal elements represent the correct classifications. The remaining elements of the rows represent errors by commission, and the remaining elements of the columns represent the errors of omission. For tests of hypothesis that compare variables, the general practice has been to use only the diagonal elements from several related classification error matrices. These data are arranged in the form of another contingency table. The columns of the table represent the different variables being compared, such as different scales of mapping. The rows represent the blocking characteristics, such as the various categories of classification. The values in the cells of the tables might be the counts of correct classification or the binomial proportions of these counts divided by either the row totals or the column totals from the original classification error matrices. In hypothesis testing, when the results of tests of multiple sample cases prove to be significant, some form of statistical test must be used to separate any results that differ significantly from the others. In the past, many analyses of the data in this error matrix were made by comparing the relative magnitudes of the percentage of correct classifications, for either individual categories, the entire map or both. More rigorous analyses have used data transformations and (or) two-way classification analysis of variance. A more sophisticated step of data analysis techniques would be to use the entire classification error matrices using the methods of discrete multivariate analysis or of multiviariate analysis of variance.

Rigor of cell fate decision by variable p53 pulses and roles of cooperative gene expression by p53

PubMed Central

Murakami, Yohei; Takada, Shoji

2012-01-01

Upon DNA damage, the cell fate decision between survival and apoptosis is largely regulated by p53-related networks. Recent experiments found a series of discrete p53 pulses in individual cells, which led to the hypothesis that the cell fate decision upon DNA damage is controlled by counting the number of p53 pulses. Under this hypothesis, Sun et al. (2009) modeled the Bax activation switch in the apoptosis signal transduction pathway that can rigorously “count” the number of uniform p53 pulses. Based on experimental evidence, here we use variable p53 pulses with Sun et al.’s model to investigate how the variability in p53 pulses affects the rigor of the cell fate decision by the pulse number. Our calculations showed that the experimentally anticipated variability in the pulse sizes reduces the rigor of the cell fate decision. In addition, we tested the roles of the cooperativity in PUMA expression by p53, finding that lower cooperativity is plausible for more rigorous cell fate decision. This is because the variability in the p53 pulse height is more amplified in PUMA expressions with more cooperative cases. PMID:27857606

Model-based assessment of estuary ecosystem health using the latent health factor index, with application to the richibucto estuary.

PubMed

Chiu, Grace S; Wu, Margaret A; Lu, Lin

2013-01-01

The ability to quantitatively assess ecological health is of great interest to those tasked with monitoring and conserving ecosystems. For decades, biomonitoring research and policies have relied on multimetric health indices of various forms. Although indices are numbers, many are constructed based on qualitative procedures, thus limiting the quantitative rigor of the practical interpretations of such indices. The statistical modeling approach to construct the latent health factor index (LHFI) was recently developed. With ecological data that otherwise are used to construct conventional multimetric indices, the LHFI framework expresses such data in a rigorous quantitative model, integrating qualitative features of ecosystem health and preconceived ecological relationships among such features. This hierarchical modeling approach allows unified statistical inference of health for observed sites (along with prediction of health for partially observed sites, if desired) and of the relevance of ecological drivers, all accompanied by formal uncertainty statements from a single, integrated analysis. Thus far, the LHFI approach has been demonstrated and validated in a freshwater context. We adapt this approach to modeling estuarine health, and illustrate it on the previously unassessed system in Richibucto in New Brunswick, Canada, where active oyster farming is a potential stressor through its effects on sediment properties. Field data correspond to health metrics that constitute the popular AZTI marine biotic index and the infaunal trophic index, as well as abiotic predictors preconceived to influence biota. Our paper is the first to construct a scientifically sensible model that rigorously identifies the collective explanatory capacity of salinity, distance downstream, channel depth, and silt-clay content-all regarded a priori as qualitatively important abiotic drivers-towards site health in the Richibucto ecosystem. This suggests the potential effectiveness of the LHFI approach for assessing not only freshwater systems but aquatic ecosystems in general.

Rigorous Approach in Investigation of Seismic Structure and Source Characteristicsin Northeast Asia: Hierarchical and Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustac, M.; Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Rhie, J.; Chen, Y.; Ford, S. R.; Sebastian, N.

2015-12-01

Conventional approaches to inverse problems suffer from non-linearity and non-uniqueness in estimations of seismic structures and source properties. Estimated results and associated uncertainties are often biased by applied regularizations and additional constraints, which are commonly introduced to solve such problems. Bayesian methods, however, provide statistically meaningful estimations of models and their uncertainties constrained by data information. In addition, hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques are inherently implemented in the Bayesian framework to account for involved error statistics and model parameterizations, and, in turn, allow more rigorous estimations of the same. Here, we apply Bayesian methods throughout the entire inference process to estimate seismic structures and source properties in Northeast Asia including east China, the Korean peninsula, and the Japanese islands. Ambient noise analysis is first performed to obtain a base three-dimensional (3-D) heterogeneity model using continuous broadband waveforms from more than 300 stations. As for the tomography of surface wave group and phase velocities in the 5-70 s band, we adopt a hierarchical and trans-D Bayesian inversion method using Voronoi partition. The 3-D heterogeneity model is further improved by joint inversions of teleseismic receiver functions and dispersion data using a newly developed high-efficiency Bayesian technique. The obtained model is subsequently used to prepare 3-D structural Green's functions for the source characterization. A hierarchical Bayesian method for point source inversion using regional complete waveform data is applied to selected events from the region. The seismic structure and source characteristics with rigorously estimated uncertainties from the novel Bayesian methods provide enhanced monitoring and discrimination of seismic events in northeast Asia.

Injection-salting of pre rigor fillets of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

PubMed

Birkeland, Sveinung; Akse, Leif; Joensen, Sjurdur; Tobiassen, Torbjørn; Skåra, Torstein

2007-01-01

The effects of temperature (-1, 4, and 10 degrees C), brine concentration (12% and 25% NaCl), injection volumes, and needle densities were investigated on fillet weight gain (%), salt content (%), fillet contraction (%), and muscle gaping in pre rigor brine-injected fillets of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Increased brine concentration (12% to 25%) significantly increased the initial (< 5 min after injection) and final contraction (24 h after injection) of pre rigor fillets. Increased brine concentration significantly reduced weight gain and increased salt content but had no significant effect on muscle gaping. The temperatures tested did not significantly affect weight gain, fillet contraction, or gaping score. Significant regressions (P < 0.01) between the injection volume and weight gain (range: 2.5% to 15.5%) and salt content (range: 1.7% to 6.5%) were observed for injections of pre rigor fillets. Double injections significantly increased the weight gain and salt content compared to single injections. Initial fillet contraction measured 30 min after brine injection increased significantly (P < 0.01) with increasing brine injection volume but no significant difference in the fillet contraction was observed 12 h after brine injection (range: 7.9% to 8.9%). Brine-injected post rigor control fillets obtained higher weight gain, higher salt content, more muscle gaping, and significantly lower fillet contraction compared to the pre rigor injected fillets. Injection-salting is an applicable technology as a means to obtain satisfactory salt contents and homogenously distribute the salt into the muscle of pre rigor fillets of Atlantic salmon before further processing steps such as drying and smoking.

Equilibration, thermalisation, and the emergence of statistical mechanics in closed quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gogolin, Christian; Eisert, Jens

2016-05-01

We review selected advances in the theoretical understanding of complex quantum many-body systems with regard to emergent notions of quantum statistical mechanics. We cover topics such as equilibration and thermalisation in pure state statistical mechanics, the eigenstate thermalisation hypothesis, the equivalence of ensembles, non-equilibration dynamics following global and local quenches as well as ramps. We also address initial state independence, absence of thermalisation, and many-body localisation. We elucidate the role played by key concepts for these phenomena, such as Lieb-Robinson bounds, entanglement growth, typicality arguments, quantum maximum entropy principles and the generalised Gibbs ensembles, and quantum (non-)integrability. We put emphasis on rigorous approaches and present the most important results in a unified language.

Electrical Conductivity of Charged Particle Systems and Zubarev's Nonequilibrium Statistical Operator Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röpke, G.

2018-01-01

One of the fundamental problems in physics that are not yet rigorously solved is the statistical mechanics of nonequilibrium processes. An important contribution to describing irreversible behavior starting from reversible Hamiltonian dynamics was given by D. N. Zubarev, who invented the method of the nonequilibrium statistical operator. We discuss this approach, in particular, the extended von Neumann equation, and as an example consider the electrical conductivity of a system of charged particles. We consider the selection of the set of relevant observables. We show the relation between kinetic theory and linear response theory. Using thermodynamic Green's functions, we present a systematic treatment of correlation functions, but the convergence needs investigation. We compare different expressions for the conductivity and list open questions.

Equilibration, thermalisation, and the emergence of statistical mechanics in closed quantum systems.

PubMed

Gogolin, Christian; Eisert, Jens

2016-05-01

We review selected advances in the theoretical understanding of complex quantum many-body systems with regard to emergent notions of quantum statistical mechanics. We cover topics such as equilibration and thermalisation in pure state statistical mechanics, the eigenstate thermalisation hypothesis, the equivalence of ensembles, non-equilibration dynamics following global and local quenches as well as ramps. We also address initial state independence, absence of thermalisation, and many-body localisation. We elucidate the role played by key concepts for these phenomena, such as Lieb-Robinson bounds, entanglement growth, typicality arguments, quantum maximum entropy principles and the generalised Gibbs ensembles, and quantum (non-)integrability. We put emphasis on rigorous approaches and present the most important results in a unified language.

Statistical Characterization and Classification of Edge-Localized Plasma Instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, A. J.; Dendy, R. O.

2013-04-01

The statistics of edge-localized plasma instabilities (ELMs) in toroidal magnetically confined fusion plasmas are considered. From first principles, standard experimentally motivated assumptions are shown to determine a specific probability distribution for the waiting times between ELMs: the Weibull distribution. This is confirmed empirically by a statistically rigorous comparison with a large data set from the Joint European Torus. The successful characterization of ELM waiting times enables future work to progress in various ways. Here we present a quantitative classification of ELM types, complementary to phenomenological approaches. It also informs us about the nature of ELM processes, such as whether they are random or deterministic. The methods are extremely general and can be applied to numerous other quasiperiodic intermittent phenomena.

Getting Closer to Countdown: Spacecraft Undergoes Readiness Tests

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-07-19

It no easy task getting NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter ready for launch. Workers stabilize the crane holding one of the enormous billboard-sized solar panels temporarily removed from the spacecraft prior to rigorous testing.

Does Test Preparation Mean Low-Quality Instruction?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blazar, David; Pollard, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Critics of test-based accountability warn that test preparation has a negative influence on teachers' instruction due to a focus on procedural skills. Others advocate that the adoption of more rigorous assessments may be a way to incentivize more ambitious test preparation instruction. Drawing on classroom observations and teacher surveys, we do…

Performance Evaluation of 14 Neural Network Architectures Used for Predicting Heat Transfer Characteristics of Engine Oils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ajmi, R. M.; Abou-Ziyan, H. Z.; Mahmoud, M. A.

2012-01-01

This paper reports the results of a comprehensive study that aimed at identifying best neural network architecture and parameters to predict subcooled boiling characteristics of engine oils. A total of 57 different neural networks (NNs) that were derived from 14 different NN architectures were evaluated for four different prediction cases. The NNs were trained on experimental datasets performed on five engine oils of different chemical compositions. The performance of each NN was evaluated using a rigorous statistical analysis as well as careful examination of smoothness of predicted boiling curves. One NN, out of the 57 evaluated, correctly predicted the boiling curves for all cases considered either for individual oils or for all oils taken together. It was found that the pattern selection and weight update techniques strongly affect the performance of the NNs. It was also revealed that the use of descriptive statistical analysis such as R2, mean error, standard deviation, and T and slope tests, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for evaluating NN performance. The performance criteria should also include inspection of the smoothness of the predicted curves either visually or by plotting the slopes of these curves.

Assessment of Teaching Approaches in an Introductory Astronomy College Classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, William R.

In recent years, there have been calls from the astronomy education research community for the increased use of learner-centered approaches to teaching, and systematic assessments of various teaching approaches using such tools as the Astronomy Diagnostic Test 2.0 (ADT 2.0). The research presented is a response to both calls. The ADT 2.0 was used in a modified form to obtain baseline assessments of introductory college astronomy classes that were taught in a traditional, mostly didactic manner. The ADT 2.0 (modified) was administered both before and after the completion of the courses. The courses were then altered to make modest use of learner-centered lecture tutorials. The ADT 2.0 (modified) was again administered before and after completion of the modified courses. Overall, the modest learner-centered approach showed mixed statistical results, with an increase in effect size (from medium to large), but no change in normalized gain index (both were low). Additionally, a mathematically rigorous approach showed no statistically significant improvements in conceptual understanding compared with a mathematically nonrigorous approach. This study will interpret the results from a variety of perspectives. The overall implementation of the lecture tutorials and their implications for teaching will also be discussed.

Shaping Ability of Single-file Systems with Different Movements: A Micro-computed Tomographic Study.

PubMed

Santa-Rosa, Joedy; de Sousa-Neto, Manoel Damião; Versiani, Marco Aurelio; Nevares, Giselle; Xavier, Felipe; Romeiro, Kaline; Cassimiro, Marcely; Leoni, Graziela Bianchi; de Menezes, Rebeca Ferraz; Albuquerque, Diana

2016-01-01

This study aimed to perform a rigorous sample standardization and also evaluate the preparation of mesiobuccal (MB) root canals of maxillary molars with severe curvatures using two single-file engine-driven systems (WaveOne with reciprocating motion and OneShape with rotary movement), using micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Ten MB roots with single canals were included, uniformly distributed into two groups (n=5). The samples were prepared with a WaveOne or OneShape files. The shaping ability and amount of canal transportation were assessed by a comparison of the pre- and post-instrumentation micro-CT scans. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and t-tests were used for statistical analysis. The level of significance was set at 0.05. Instrumentation of canals increased their surface area and volume. Canal transportation occurred in coronal, middle and apical thirds and no statistical difference was observed between the two systems (P>0.05). In apical third, significant differences were found between groups in canal roundness (in 3 mm level) and perimeter (in 3 and 4 mm levels) (P<0.05). The WaveOne and One Shape single-file systems were able to shape curved root canals, producing minor changes in the canal curvature.

Boeing CST-100 Heat Shield Testing

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-05-31

A heat shield is used during separation test activities with Boeing's Starliner structural test article. The test article is undergoing rigorous qualification testing at the company's Huntington Beach Facility in California. Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner will launch on the Atlas V rocket to the International Space Station as part of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program.

Container contamination as a possible source of a diarrhoea outbreak in Abou Shouk camp, Darfur province, Sudan.

PubMed

Walden, Vivien Margaret; Lamond, Elizabeth-Anne; Field, Sally A

2005-09-01

Diarrhoea is one of the five major causes of death in an emergency setting and one of the three main causes of death in children (Curtis and Cairncross, 2003). In June 2004, an outbreak of shigellosis was confirmed in Abou Shouk camp in the Northern Darfur province of Sudan. As water testing showed no contamination, it was assumed that post-collection contamination was happening. The decision was taken to launch a programme of mass disinfection of all water containers in order to break the contamination cycle. Diarrhoea figures from the clinics showed a fall in cases following the cleaning campaign. It is extremely difficult to obtain good and statistically rigorous data in an emergency setting, the priority being to intervene rapidly to prevent further cases of diarrhoea. However, the results do appear to indicate that the disinfection programme has had an impact on the prevalence of bloody and watery diarrhoea.

A genetically informed study of the association between harsh punishment and offspring behavioral problems.

PubMed

Lynch, Stacy K; Turkheimer, Eric; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Mendle, Jane; Emery, Robert E; Slutske, Wendy S; Martin, Nicholas G

2006-06-01

Conclusions about the effects of harsh parenting on children have been limited by research designs that cannot control for genetic or shared environmental confounds. The present study used a sample of children of twins and a hierarchical linear modeling statistical approach to analyze the consequences of varying levels of punishment while controlling for many confounding influences. The sample of 887 twin pairs and 2,554 children came from the Australian Twin Registry. Although corporal punishment per se did not have significant associations with negative childhood outcomes, harsher forms of physical punishment did appear to have specific and significant effects. The observed association between harsh physical punishment and negative outcomes in children survived a relatively rigorous test of its causal status, thereby increasing the authors' conviction that harsh physical punishment is a serious risk factor for children. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Anthropic selection and the habitability of planets orbiting M and K dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waltham, Dave

2011-10-01

The Earth may have untypical characteristics which were necessary preconditions for the emergence of life and, ultimately, intelligent observers. This paper presents a rigorous procedure for quantifying such "anthropic selection" effects by comparing Earth's properties to those of exoplanets. The hypothesis that there is anthropic selection for stellar mass (i.e. planets orbiting stars with masses within a particular range are more favourable for the emergence of observers) is then tested. The results rule out the expected strong selection for low mass stars which would result, all else being equal, if the typical timescale for the emergence of intelligent observers is very long. This indicates that the habitable zone of small stars may be less hospitable for intelligent life than the habitable zone of solar-mass stars. Additional planetary properties can also be analyzed, using the approach introduced here, once relatively complete and unbiased statistics are made available by current and planned exoplanet characterization projects.

A Genetically Informed Study of the Association Between Harsh Punishment and Offspring Behavioral Problems

PubMed Central

Lynch, Stacy K.; Turkheimer, Eric; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Mendle, Jane; Emery, Robert E.; Slutske, Wendy S.; Martin, Nicholas G.

2010-01-01

Conclusions about the effects of harsh parenting on children have been limited by research designs that cannot control for genetic or shared environmental confounds. The present study used a sample of children of twins and a hierarchical linear modeling statistical approach to analyze the consequences of varying levels of punishment while controlling for many confounding influences. The sample of 887 twin pairs and 2,554 children came from the Australian Twin Registry. Although corporal punishment per se did not have significant associations with negative childhood outcomes, harsher forms of physical punishment did appear to have specific and significant effects. The observed association between harsh physical punishment and negative outcomes in children survived a relatively rigorous test of its causal status, thereby increasing the authors’ conviction that harsh physical punishment is a serious risk factor for children. PMID:16756394

Ab Initio and Monte Carlo Approaches For the MagnetocaloricEffect in Co- and In-Doped Ni-Mn-Ga Heusler Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolovskiy, Vladimir; Grünebohm, Anna; Buchelnikov, Vasiliy; Entel, Peter

2014-09-01

This special issue collects contributions from the participants of the "Information in Dynamical Systems and Complex Systems" workshop, which cover a wide range of important problems and new approaches that lie in the intersection of information theory and dynamical systems. The contributions include theoretical characterization and understanding of the different types of information flow and causality in general stochastic processes, inference and identification of coupling structure and parameters of system dynamics, rigorous coarse-grain modeling of network dynamical systems, and exact statistical testing of fundamental information-theoretic quantities such as the mutual information. The collective efforts reported herein reflect a modern perspective of the intimate connection between dynamical systems and information flow, leading to the promise of better understanding and modeling of natural complex systems and better/optimal design of engineering systems.

Geographic profiling applied to testing models of bumble-bee foraging.

PubMed

Raine, Nigel E; Rossmo, D Kim; Le Comber, Steven C

2009-03-06

Geographic profiling (GP) was originally developed as a statistical tool to help police forces prioritize lists of suspects in investigations of serial crimes. GP uses the location of related crime sites to make inferences about where the offender is most likely to live, and has been extremely successful in criminology. Here, we show how GP is applicable to experimental studies of animal foraging, using the bumble-bee Bombus terrestris. GP techniques enable us to simplify complex patterns of spatial data down to a small number of parameters (2-3) for rigorous hypothesis testing. Combining computer model simulations and experimental observation of foraging bumble-bees, we demonstrate that GP can be used to discriminate between foraging patterns resulting from (i) different hypothetical foraging algorithms and (ii) different food item (flower) densities. We also demonstrate that combining experimental and simulated data can be used to elucidate animal foraging strategies: specifically that the foraging patterns of real bumble-bees can be reliably discriminated from three out of nine hypothetical foraging algorithms. We suggest that experimental systems, like foraging bees, could be used to test and refine GP model predictions, and that GP offers a useful technique to analyse spatial animal behaviour data in both the laboratory and field.

Drama-induced affect and pain sensitivity.

PubMed

Zillmann, D; de Wied, M; King-Jablonski, C; Jenzowsky, S

1996-01-01

This study was conducted to examine the pain-ameliorating and pain-sensitizing effects of exposure to emotionally engaging drama. Specifically, the consequences for pain sensitivity of exposure to dramatic expositions differing in both excitatory and hedonic qualities were determined. Hedonically negative, neutral, and positive affective states were induced in male respondents by exposure to excerpts from cinematic drama. Pain sensitivity was assessed by the cuff-pressure procedure before and after exposure and by the cold pressor test after exposure only. When compared against the control condition, pain sensitivity diminished under conditions of hedonically positive affect. An inverse effect was suggested for hedonically negative conditions, but proved tentative and statistically unreliable. The findings are consistent with earlier demonstrations of mood effects on pain sensitivity. Unlike inconclusive earlier findings concerning the magnitude of directional effects, however, they suggest an asymmetry that emphasizes the pain-ameliorating effect of positive affects while lending little, if any, support to the proposal of a pain-sensitizing effect of negative affects. The investigation did not accomplish the intended creation of conditions necessary to test the proposal that heightened sympathetic activity diminishes pain sensitivity. The utility of a rigorous determination of this hypothesized relationship is emphasized, and procedures for a viable test of the proposal are suggested.

ON MODEL SELECTION STRATEGIES TO IDENTIFY GENES UNDERLYING BINARY TRAITS USING GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION DATA.

PubMed

Wu, Zheyang; Zhao, Hongyu

2012-01-01

For more fruitful discoveries of genetic variants associated with diseases in genome-wide association studies, it is important to know whether joint analysis of multiple markers is more powerful than the commonly used single-marker analysis, especially in the presence of gene-gene interactions. This article provides a statistical framework to rigorously address this question through analytical power calculations for common model search strategies to detect binary trait loci: marginal search, exhaustive search, forward search, and two-stage screening search. Our approach incorporates linkage disequilibrium, random genotypes, and correlations among score test statistics of logistic regressions. We derive analytical results under two power definitions: the power of finding all the associated markers and the power of finding at least one associated marker. We also consider two types of error controls: the discovery number control and the Bonferroni type I error rate control. After demonstrating the accuracy of our analytical results by simulations, we apply them to consider a broad genetic model space to investigate the relative performances of different model search strategies. Our analytical study provides rapid computation as well as insights into the statistical mechanism of capturing genetic signals under different genetic models including gene-gene interactions. Even though we focus on genetic association analysis, our results on the power of model selection procedures are clearly very general and applicable to other studies.

ON MODEL SELECTION STRATEGIES TO IDENTIFY GENES UNDERLYING BINARY TRAITS USING GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION DATA

PubMed Central

Wu, Zheyang; Zhao, Hongyu

2013-01-01

For more fruitful discoveries of genetic variants associated with diseases in genome-wide association studies, it is important to know whether joint analysis of multiple markers is more powerful than the commonly used single-marker analysis, especially in the presence of gene-gene interactions. This article provides a statistical framework to rigorously address this question through analytical power calculations for common model search strategies to detect binary trait loci: marginal search, exhaustive search, forward search, and two-stage screening search. Our approach incorporates linkage disequilibrium, random genotypes, and correlations among score test statistics of logistic regressions. We derive analytical results under two power definitions: the power of finding all the associated markers and the power of finding at least one associated marker. We also consider two types of error controls: the discovery number control and the Bonferroni type I error rate control. After demonstrating the accuracy of our analytical results by simulations, we apply them to consider a broad genetic model space to investigate the relative performances of different model search strategies. Our analytical study provides rapid computation as well as insights into the statistical mechanism of capturing genetic signals under different genetic models including gene-gene interactions. Even though we focus on genetic association analysis, our results on the power of model selection procedures are clearly very general and applicable to other studies. PMID:23956610

diffHic: a Bioconductor package to detect differential genomic interactions in Hi-C data.

PubMed

Lun, Aaron T L; Smyth, Gordon K

2015-08-19

Chromatin conformation capture with high-throughput sequencing (Hi-C) is a technique that measures the in vivo intensity of interactions between all pairs of loci in the genome. Most conventional analyses of Hi-C data focus on the detection of statistically significant interactions. However, an alternative strategy involves identifying significant changes in the interaction intensity (i.e., differential interactions) between two or more biological conditions. This is more statistically rigorous and may provide more biologically relevant results. Here, we present the diffHic software package for the detection of differential interactions from Hi-C data. diffHic provides methods for read pair alignment and processing, counting into bin pairs, filtering out low-abundance events and normalization of trended or CNV-driven biases. It uses the statistical framework of the edgeR package to model biological variability and to test for significant differences between conditions. Several options for the visualization of results are also included. The use of diffHic is demonstrated with real Hi-C data sets. Performance against existing methods is also evaluated with simulated data. On real data, diffHic is able to successfully detect interactions with significant differences in intensity between biological conditions. It also compares favourably to existing software tools on simulated data sets. These results suggest that diffHic is a viable approach for differential analyses of Hi-C data.

Estimating pseudocounts and fold changes for digital expression measurements.

PubMed

Erhard, Florian

2018-06-19

Fold changes from count based high-throughput experiments such as RNA-seq suffer from a zero-frequency problem. To circumvent division by zero, so-called pseudocounts are added to make all observed counts strictly positive. The magnitude of pseudocounts for digital expression measurements and on which stage of the analysis they are introduced remained an arbitrary choice. Moreover, in the strict sense, fold changes are not quantities that can be computed. Instead, due to the stochasticity involved in the experiments, they must be estimated by statistical inference. Here, we build on a statistical framework for fold changes, where pseudocounts correspond to the parameters of the prior distribution used for Bayesian inference of the fold change. We show that arbirary and widely used choices for applying pseudocounts can lead to biased results. As a statistical rigorous alternative, we propose and test an empirical Bayes procedure to choose appropriate pseudocounts. Moreover, we introduce the novel estimator Ψ LFC for fold changes showing favorable properties with small counts and smaller deviations from the truth in simulations and real data compared to existing methods. Our results have direct implications for entities with few reads in sequencing experiments, and indirectly also affect results for entities with many reads. Ψ LFC is available as an R package under https://github.com/erhard-lab/lfc (Apache 2.0 license); R scripts to generate all figures are available at zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.1163029).

Why so many "rigorous" evaluations fail to identify unintended consequences of development programs: How mixed methods can contribute.

PubMed

Bamberger, Michael; Tarsilla, Michele; Hesse-Biber, Sharlene

2016-04-01

Many widely-used impact evaluation designs, including randomized control trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental designs (QEDs), frequently fail to detect what are often quite serious unintended consequences of development programs. This seems surprising as experienced planners and evaluators are well aware that unintended consequences frequently occur. Most evaluation designs are intended to determine whether there is credible evidence (statistical, theory-based or narrative) that programs have achieved their intended objectives and the logic of many evaluation designs, even those that are considered the most "rigorous," does not permit the identification of outcomes that were not specified in the program design. We take the example of RCTs as they are considered by many to be the most rigorous evaluation designs. We present a numbers of cases to illustrate how infusing RCTs with a mixed-methods approach (sometimes called an "RCT+" design) can strengthen the credibility of these designs and can also capture important unintended consequences. We provide a Mixed Methods Evaluation Framework that identifies 9 ways in which UCs can occur, and we apply this framework to two of the case studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Cosmic Web with Topological Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cisewski-Kehe, Jessi; Wu, Mike; Fasy, Brittany; Hellwing, Wojciech; Lovell, Mark; Rinaldo, Alessandro; Wasserman, Larry

2018-01-01

Data exhibiting complicated spatial structures are common in many areas of science (e.g. cosmology, biology), but can be difficult to analyze. Persistent homology is a popular approach within the area of Topological Data Analysis that offers a new way to represent, visualize, and interpret complex data by extracting topological features, which can be used to infer properties of the underlying structures. In particular, TDA may be useful for analyzing the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe, which is an intricate and spatially complex web of matter. In order to understand the physics of the Universe, theoretical and computational cosmologists develop large-scale simulations that allow for visualizing and analyzing the LSS under varying physical assumptions. Each point in the 3D data set represents a galaxy or a cluster of galaxies, and topological summaries ("persistent diagrams") can be obtained summarizing the different ordered holes in the data (e.g. connected components, loops, voids).The topological summaries are interesting and informative descriptors of the Universe on their own, but hypothesis tests using the topological summaries would provide a way to make more rigorous comparisons of LSS under different theoretical models. For example, the received cosmological model has cold dark matter (CDM); however, while the case is strong for CDM, there are some observational inconsistencies with this theory. Another possibility is warm dark matter (WDM). It is of interest to see if a CDM Universe and WDM Universe produce LSS that is topologically distinct.We present several possible test statistics for two-sample hypothesis tests using the topological summaries, carryout a simulation study to investigate the suitableness of the proposed test statistics using simulated data from a variation of the Voronoi foam model, and finally we apply the proposed inference framework to WDM vs. CDM cosmological simulation data.

Using the bending beam rheometer for low temperature testing of asphalt mixtures : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-07-01

This work showed that the bending beam rheometer is a viable test to determine the low temperature performance of : asphalt mixtures; it balances the rigor required of any mechanical test and the relation to field performance with the : practicality ...

Theory of the Decoherence Effect in Finite and Infinite Open Quantum Systems Using the Algebraic Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, Philippe; Hellmich, Mario; Ługiewicz, Piotr; Olkiewicz, Robert

Quantum mechanics is the greatest revision of our conception of the character of the physical world since Newton. Consequently, David Hilbert was very interested in quantum mechanics. He and John von Neumann discussed it frequently during von Neumann's residence in Göttingen. He published in 1932 his book Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Mechanics. In Hilbert's opinion it was the first exposition of quantum mechanics in a mathematically rigorous way. The pioneers of quantum mechanics, Heisenberg and Dirac, neither had use for rigorous mathematics nor much interest in it. Conceptually, quantum theory as developed by Bohr and Heisenberg is based on the positivism of Mach as it describes only observable quantities. It first emerged as a result of experimental data in the form of statistical observations of quantum noise, the basic concept of quantum probability.

Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software: Phase 2 Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cianciolo, Alicia D.; Maddock, Robert W.; Prince, Jill L.; Bowes, Angela; Powell, Richard W.; White, Joseph P.; Tolson, Robert; O'Shaughnessy, Daniel; Carrelli, David

2013-01-01

NASA has used aerobraking at Mars and Venus to reduce the fuel required to deliver a spacecraft into a desired orbit compared to an all-propulsive solution. Although aerobraking reduces the propellant, it does so at the expense of mission duration, large staff, and DSN coverage. These factors make aerobraking a significant cost element in the mission design. By moving on-board the current ground-based tasks of ephemeris determination, atmospheric density estimation, and maneuver sizing and execution, a flight project would realize significant cost savings. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) sponsored Phase 1 and 2 of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software (AADS) study, which demonstrated the initial feasibility of moving these current ground-based functions to the spacecraft. This paper highlights key state-of-the-art advancements made in the Phase 2 effort to verify that the AADS algorithms are accurate, robust and ready to be considered for application on future missions that utilize aerobraking. The advancements discussed herein include both model updates and simulation and benchmark testing. Rigorous testing using observed flight atmospheres, operational environments and statistical analysis characterized the AADS operability in a perturbed environment.

Statistical issues in the design, conduct and analysis of two large safety studies.

PubMed

Gaffney, Michael

2016-10-01

The emergence, post approval, of serious medical events, which may be associated with the use of a particular drug or class of drugs, is an important public health and regulatory issue. The best method to address this issue is through a large, rigorously designed safety study. Therefore, it is important to elucidate the statistical issues involved in these large safety studies. Two such studies are PRECISION and EAGLES. PRECISION is the primary focus of this article. PRECISION is a non-inferiority design with a clinically relevant non-inferiority margin. Statistical issues in the design, conduct and analysis of PRECISION are discussed. Quantitative and clinical aspects of the selection of the composite primary endpoint, the determination and role of the non-inferiority margin in a large safety study and the intent-to-treat and modified intent-to-treat analyses in a non-inferiority safety study are shown. Protocol changes that were necessary during the conduct of PRECISION are discussed from a statistical perspective. Issues regarding the complex analysis and interpretation of the results of PRECISION are outlined. EAGLES is presented as a large, rigorously designed safety study when a non-inferiority margin was not able to be determined by a strong clinical/scientific method. In general, when a non-inferiority margin is not able to be determined, the width of the 95% confidence interval is a way to size the study and to assess the cost-benefit of relative trial size. A non-inferiority margin, when able to be determined by a strong scientific method, should be included in a large safety study. Although these studies could not be called "pragmatic," they are examples of best real-world designs to address safety and regulatory concerns. © The Author(s) 2016.

Exploring Gender-Specific Trends in Underage Drinking across Adolescent Age Groups and Measures of Drinking: Is Girls' Drinking Catching up with Boys'?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhong, Hua; Schwartz, Jennifer

2010-01-01

Underage drinking is among the most serious of public health problems facing adolescents in the United States. Recent concerns have centered on young women, reflected in media reports and arrest statistics on their increasing problematic alcohol use. This study rigorously examined whether girls' alcohol use rose by applying time series methods to…

Decomposition of the Inequality of Income Distribution by Income Types—Application for Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrei, Tudorel; Oancea, Bogdan; Richmond, Peter; Dhesi, Gurjeet; Herteliu, Claudiu

2017-09-01

This paper identifies the salient factors that characterize the inequality income distribution for Romania. Data analysis is rigorously carried out using sophisticated techniques borrowed from classical statistics (Theil). Decomposition of the inequalities measured by the Theil index is also performed. This study relies on an exhaustive (11.1 million records for 2014) data-set for total personal gross income of Romanian citizens.

Not so Fast My Friend: The Rush to R and the Need for Rigorous Evaluation of Data Analysis and Software in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harwell, Michael

2014-01-01

Commercial data analysis software has been a fixture of quantitative analyses in education for more than three decades. Despite its apparent widespread use there is no formal evidence cataloging what software is used in educational research and educational statistics classes, by whom and for what purpose, and whether some programs should be…

A rigorous approach to facilitate and guarantee the correctness of the genetic testing management in human genome information systems.

PubMed

Araújo, Luciano V; Malkowski, Simon; Braghetto, Kelly R; Passos-Bueno, Maria R; Zatz, Mayana; Pu, Calton; Ferreira, João E

2011-12-22

Recent medical and biological technology advances have stimulated the development of new testing systems that have been providing huge, varied amounts of molecular and clinical data. Growing data volumes pose significant challenges for information processing systems in research centers. Additionally, the routines of genomics laboratory are typically characterized by high parallelism in testing and constant procedure changes. This paper describes a formal approach to address this challenge through the implementation of a genetic testing management system applied to human genome laboratory. We introduced the Human Genome Research Center Information System (CEGH) in Brazil, a system that is able to support constant changes in human genome testing and can provide patients updated results based on the most recent and validated genetic knowledge. Our approach uses a common repository for process planning to ensure reusability, specification, instantiation, monitoring, and execution of processes, which are defined using a relational database and rigorous control flow specifications based on process algebra (ACP). The main difference between our approach and related works is that we were able to join two important aspects: 1) process scalability achieved through relational database implementation, and 2) correctness of processes using process algebra. Furthermore, the software allows end users to define genetic testing without requiring any knowledge about business process notation or process algebra. This paper presents the CEGH information system that is a Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS) based on a formal framework to support genetic testing management for Mendelian disorder studies. We have proved the feasibility and showed usability benefits of a rigorous approach that is able to specify, validate, and perform genetic testing using easy end user interfaces.

A rigorous approach to facilitate and guarantee the correctness of the genetic testing management in human genome information systems

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Recent medical and biological technology advances have stimulated the development of new testing systems that have been providing huge, varied amounts of molecular and clinical data. Growing data volumes pose significant challenges for information processing systems in research centers. Additionally, the routines of genomics laboratory are typically characterized by high parallelism in testing and constant procedure changes. Results This paper describes a formal approach to address this challenge through the implementation of a genetic testing management system applied to human genome laboratory. We introduced the Human Genome Research Center Information System (CEGH) in Brazil, a system that is able to support constant changes in human genome testing and can provide patients updated results based on the most recent and validated genetic knowledge. Our approach uses a common repository for process planning to ensure reusability, specification, instantiation, monitoring, and execution of processes, which are defined using a relational database and rigorous control flow specifications based on process algebra (ACP). The main difference between our approach and related works is that we were able to join two important aspects: 1) process scalability achieved through relational database implementation, and 2) correctness of processes using process algebra. Furthermore, the software allows end users to define genetic testing without requiring any knowledge about business process notation or process algebra. Conclusions This paper presents the CEGH information system that is a Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS) based on a formal framework to support genetic testing management for Mendelian disorder studies. We have proved the feasibility and showed usability benefits of a rigorous approach that is able to specify, validate, and perform genetic testing using easy end user interfaces. PMID:22369688

Disintegration performance of renal multivitamin supplements.

PubMed

Stamatakis, M K; Meyer-Stout, P J

1999-04-01

Vitamins have traditionally been regulated as dietary supplements and have not been required to meet the same rigorous product quality performance standards as drug products. Impaired product performance, such as failure to disintegrate and/or dissolve in the gastrointestinal tract, could limit the absorption of vitamins. Furthermore, patients with renal disease have been reported to experience a wide range in gastrointestinal pH, which could influence a product's performance. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of pH on the in vitro disintegration of renal multivitamin supplements. Products were studied using the United States Pharmacopeial Convention standard disintegration apparatus. Products were tested in simulated gastric fluid, neutral fluid, and intestinal fluid. Product failure was defined as two or more individual tablets or capsules failing to disintegrate completely within compendial limits. Of 11 products tested, 4 products failed the disintegration study test in all pH conditions. Sixty-four percent of the products showed statistically significant differences in disintegration time (DT) based on pH. As pH increased, time to disintegration increased. The DT of commercially available renal multivitamin supplements was highly variable. Poorest product performance was shown in simulated intestinal fluid. The pH significantly affected in vitro disintegration in greater than half the products tested. How this affects dissolution and in vivo performance has yet to be studied.

Retaking the Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Backer, David Isaac; Lewis, Tyson Edward

2015-01-01

"Data-driven" teaching and learning is common sense in education today, and it is common sense that these data should come from standardized tests. Critiques of standardization either make no constructive suggestions for what to use in place of the tests or they call for better, more scientifically rigorous, reliable, and…

Short-term earthquake forecasting based on an epidemic clustering model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

2016-04-01

The application of rigorous statistical tools, with the aim of verifying any prediction method, requires a univocal definition of the hypothesis, or the model, characterizing the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognized in any circumstance and by any observer. This is mandatory to build up on the old-fashion approach consisting only of the retrospective anecdotic study of past cases. A rigorous definition of an earthquake forecasting hypothesis should lead to the objective identification of particular sub-volumes (usually named alarm volumes) of the total time-space volume within which the probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes is higher than the usual. The test of a similar hypothesis needs the observation of a sufficient number of past cases upon which a statistical analysis is possible. This analysis should be aimed to determine the rate at which the precursor has been followed (success rate) or not followed (false alarm rate) by the target seismic event, or the rate at which a target event has been preceded (alarm rate) or not preceded (failure rate) by the precursor. The binary table obtained from this kind of analysis leads to the definition of the parameters of the model that achieve the maximum number of successes and the minimum number of false alarms for a specific class of precursors. The mathematical tools suitable for this purpose may include the definition of Probability Gain or the R-Score, as well as the application of popular plots such as the Molchan error-diagram and the ROC diagram. Another tool for evaluating the validity of a forecasting method is the concept of the likelihood ratio (also named performance factor) of occurrence and non-occurrence of seismic events under different hypotheses. Whatever is the method chosen for building up a new hypothesis, usually based on retrospective data, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this step could be problematic for seismicity characterized by long-term recurrence. However, the separation of the data base of the data base collected in the past in two separate sections (one on which the best fit of the parameters is carried out, and the other on which the hypothesis is tested) can be a viable solution, known as retrospective-forward testing. In this study we show examples of application of the above mentioned concepts to the analysis of the Italian catalog of instrumental seismicity, making use of an epidemic algorithm developed to model short-term clustering features. This model, for which a precursory anomaly is just the occurrence of seismic activity, doesn't need the retrospective categorization of earthquakes in terms of foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. It was introduced more than 15 years ago and tested so far in a number of real cases. It is now being run by several seismological centers around the world in forward real-time mode for testing purposes.

Systematic review of mobile health behavioural interventions to improve uptake of HIV testing for vulnerable and key populations.

PubMed

Conserve, Donaldson F; Jennings, Larissa; Aguiar, Carolina; Shin, Grace; Handler, Lara; Maman, Suzanne

2017-02-01

Introduction This systematic narrative review examined the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of mobile health (mHealth) behavioural interventions designed to increase the uptake of HIV testing among vulnerable and key populations. Methods MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Global Health electronic databases were searched. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were published between 2005 and 2015, evaluated an mHealth intervention, and reported an outcome relating to HIV testing. We also reviewed the bibliographies of retrieved studies for other relevant citations. The methodological rigor of selected articles was assessed, and narrative analyses were used to synthesize findings from mixed methodologies. Results A total of seven articles met the inclusion criteria. Most mHealth interventions employed a text-messaging feature and were conducted in middle- and high-income countries. The methodological rigor was moderate among studies. The current literature suggests that mHealth interventions can have significant positive effects on HIV testing initiation among vulnerable and key populations, as well as the general public. In some cases, null results were observed. Qualitative themes relating to the use of mobile technologies to increase HIV testing included the benefits of having low-cost, confidential, and motivational communication. Reported barriers included cellular network restrictions, poor linkages with physical testing services, and limited knowledge of appropriate text-messaging dose. Discussion MHealth interventions may prove beneficial in reducing the proportion of undiagnosed persons living with HIV, particularly among vulnerable and key populations. However, more rigorous and tailored interventions are needed to assess the effectiveness of widespread use.

Systematic review of mobile-health behavioral interventions to improve uptake of HIV testing for vulnerable and key populations

PubMed Central

Conserve, Donaldson F.; Jennings, Larissa; Aguiar, Carolina; Shin, Grace; Handler, Lara; Maman, Suzanne

2016-01-01

Objective This systematic narrative review examined the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of mobile health (mHealth) behavioral interventions designed to increase uptake of HIV testing among vulnerable and key populations. Methods MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Global Health electronic databases were searched. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were published between 2005 and 2015, evaluated an mHealth intervention, and reported an outcome relating to HIV testing. We also reviewed the bibliographies of retrieved studies for other relevant citations. The methodological rigor of selected articles was assessed, and narrative analyses were used to synthesize findings from mixed methodologies. Results A total of seven articles met the inclusion criteria. Most mHealth interventions employed a text-messaging feature and were conducted in middle- and high-income countries. The methodological rigor was moderate among studies. The current literature suggests that mHealth interventions can have significant positive effects on HIV testing initiation among vulnerable and key populations, as well as the general public. In some cases, null results were observed. Qualitative themes relating to use of mobile technologies to increase HIV testing included the benefits of having low-cost, confidential, and motivational communication. Reported barriers included cellular network restrictions, poor linkages with physical testing services, and limited knowledge of appropriate text-messaging dose. Conclusions MHealth interventions may prove beneficial in reducing the proportion of undiagnosed persons living with HIV, particularly among vulnerable and key populations. However, more rigorous and tailored intervention trials are needed to assess the effectiveness of widespread use. PMID:27056905

New Tests Put States on Spot

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ujifusa, Andrew

2012-01-01

As states begin to demand more rigor on their high-stakes tests--and the tests evolve to incorporate revised academic standards--many officials are gambling that an initial wave of lower scores will give way to greater student achievement in the future. Changes to statewide tests and subsequent plummeting scores sparked controversy and emergency…

Parent Management Training-Oregon Model: Adapting Intervention with Rigorous Research.

PubMed

Forgatch, Marion S; Kjøbli, John

2016-09-01

Parent Management Training-Oregon Model (PMTO(®) ) is a set of theory-based parenting programs with status as evidence-based treatments. PMTO has been rigorously tested in efficacy and effectiveness trials in different contexts, cultures, and formats. Parents, the presumed agents of change, learn core parenting practices, specifically skill encouragement, limit setting, monitoring/supervision, interpersonal problem solving, and positive involvement. The intervention effectively prevents and ameliorates children's behavior problems by replacing coercive interactions with positive parenting practices. Delivery format includes sessions with individual families in agencies or families' homes, parent groups, and web-based and telehealth communication. Mediational models have tested parenting practices as mechanisms of change for children's behavior and found support for the theory underlying PMTO programs. Moderating effects include children's age, maternal depression, and social disadvantage. The Norwegian PMTO implementation is presented as an example of how PMTO has been tailored to reach diverse populations as delivered by multiple systems of care throughout the nation. An implementation and research center in Oslo provides infrastructure and promotes collaboration between practitioners and researchers to conduct rigorous intervention research. Although evidence-based and tested within a wide array of contexts and populations, PMTO must continue to adapt to an ever-changing world. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

ZY3-02 Laser Altimeter Footprint Geolocation Prediction

PubMed Central

Xie, Junfeng; Tang, Xinming; Mo, Fan; Li, Guoyuan; Zhu, Guangbin; Wang, Zhenming; Fu, Xingke; Gao, Xiaoming; Dou, Xianhui

2017-01-01

Successfully launched on 30 May 2016, ZY3-02 is the first Chinese surveying and mapping satellite equipped with a lightweight laser altimeter. Calibration is necessary before the laser altimeter becomes operational. Laser footprint location prediction is the first step in calibration that is based on ground infrared detectors, and it is difficult because the sample frequency of the ZY3-02 laser altimeter is 2 Hz, and the distance between two adjacent laser footprints is about 3.5 km. In this paper, we build an on-orbit rigorous geometric prediction model referenced to the rigorous geometric model of optical remote sensing satellites. The model includes three kinds of data that must be predicted: pointing angle, orbit parameters, and attitude angles. The proposed method is verified by a ZY3-02 laser altimeter on-orbit geometric calibration test. Five laser footprint prediction experiments are conducted based on the model, and the laser footprint prediction accuracy is better than 150 m on the ground. The effectiveness and accuracy of the on-orbit rigorous geometric prediction model are confirmed by the test results. The geolocation is predicted precisely by the proposed method, and this will give a reference to the geolocation prediction of future land laser detectors in other laser altimeter calibration test. PMID:28934160

ZY3-02 Laser Altimeter Footprint Geolocation Prediction.

PubMed

Xie, Junfeng; Tang, Xinming; Mo, Fan; Li, Guoyuan; Zhu, Guangbin; Wang, Zhenming; Fu, Xingke; Gao, Xiaoming; Dou, Xianhui

2017-09-21

Successfully launched on 30 May 2016, ZY3-02 is the first Chinese surveying and mapping satellite equipped with a lightweight laser altimeter. Calibration is necessary before the laser altimeter becomes operational. Laser footprint location prediction is the first step in calibration that is based on ground infrared detectors, and it is difficult because the sample frequency of the ZY3-02 laser altimeter is 2 Hz, and the distance between two adjacent laser footprints is about 3.5 km. In this paper, we build an on-orbit rigorous geometric prediction model referenced to the rigorous geometric model of optical remote sensing satellites. The model includes three kinds of data that must be predicted: pointing angle, orbit parameters, and attitude angles. The proposed method is verified by a ZY3-02 laser altimeter on-orbit geometric calibration test. Five laser footprint prediction experiments are conducted based on the model, and the laser footprint prediction accuracy is better than 150 m on the ground. The effectiveness and accuracy of the on-orbit rigorous geometric prediction model are confirmed by the test results. The geolocation is predicted precisely by the proposed method, and this will give a reference to the geolocation prediction of future land laser detectors in other laser altimeter calibration test.

Local and global approaches to the problem of Poincaré recurrences. Applications in nonlinear dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anishchenko, V. S.; Boev, Ya. I.; Semenova, N. I.; Strelkova, G. I.

2015-07-01

We review rigorous and numerical results on the statistics of Poincaré recurrences which are related to the modern development of the Poincaré recurrence problem. We analyze and describe the rigorous results which are achieved both in the classical (local) approach and in the recently developed global approach. These results are illustrated by numerical simulation data for simple chaotic and ergodic systems. It is shown that the basic theoretical laws can be applied to noisy systems if the probability measure is ergodic and stationary. Poincaré recurrences are studied numerically in nonautonomous systems. Statistical characteristics of recurrences are analyzed in the framework of the global approach for the cases of positive and zero topological entropy. We show that for the positive entropy, there is a relationship between the Afraimovich-Pesin dimension, Lyapunov exponents and the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy either without and in the presence of external noise. The case of zero topological entropy is exemplified by numerical results for the Poincare recurrence statistics in the circle map. We show and prove that the dependence of minimal recurrence times on the return region size demonstrates universal properties for the golden and the silver ratio. The behavior of Poincaré recurrences is analyzed at the critical point of Feigenbaum attractor birth. We explore Poincaré recurrences for an ergodic set which is generated in the stroboscopic section of a nonautonomous oscillator and is similar to a circle shift. Based on the obtained results we show how the Poincaré recurrence statistics can be applied for solving a number of nonlinear dynamics issues. We propose and illustrate alternative methods for diagnosing effects of external and mutual synchronization of chaotic systems in the context of the local and global approaches. The properties of the recurrence time probability density can be used to detect the stochastic resonance phenomenon. We also discuss how the fractal dimension of chaotic attractors can be estimated using the Poincaré recurrence statistics.

Perspectives on Validation of High-Throughput Assays Supporting 21st Century Toxicity Testing

EPA Science Inventory

In vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) assays are seeing increasing use in toxicity testing. HTS assays can simultaneously test many chemicals but have seen limited use in the regulatory arena, in part because of the need to undergo rigorous, time-consuming formal validation. ...

Research Says…/High-Stakes Testing Narrows the Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

David, Jane L.

2011-01-01

The current rationale for standards-based reform goes like this: If standards are demanding and tests accurately measure achievement of those standards, then curriculum and instruction will become richer and more rigorous. By attaching serious consequences to schools that fail to increase test scores, U.S. policymakers believe that educators will…

Testing Intelligently Includes Double-Checking Wechsler IQ Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuentzel, Jeffrey G.; Hetterscheidt, Lesley A.; Barnett, Douglas

2011-01-01

The rigors of standardized testing make for numerous opportunities for examiner error, including simple computational mistakes in scoring. Although experts recommend that test scoring be double-checked, the extent to which independent double-checking would reduce scoring errors is not known. A double-checking procedure was established at a…

Testability of evolutionary game dynamics based on experimental economics data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yijia; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Zhijian

2017-11-01

Understanding the dynamic processes of a real game system requires an appropriate dynamics model, and rigorously testing a dynamics model is nontrivial. In our methodological research, we develop an approach to testing the validity of game dynamics models that considers the dynamic patterns of angular momentum and speed as measurement variables. Using Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) games as an example, we illustrate the geometric patterns in the experiment data. We then derive the related theoretical patterns from a series of typical dynamics models. By testing the goodness-of-fit between the experimental and theoretical patterns, we show that the validity of these models can be evaluated quantitatively. Our approach establishes a link between dynamics models and experimental systems, which is, to the best of our knowledge, the most effective and rigorous strategy for ascertaining the testability of evolutionary game dynamics models.

Statistical learning theory for high dimensional prediction: Application to criterion-keyed scale development.

PubMed

Chapman, Benjamin P; Weiss, Alexander; Duberstein, Paul R

2016-12-01

Statistical learning theory (SLT) is the statistical formulation of machine learning theory, a body of analytic methods common in "big data" problems. Regression-based SLT algorithms seek to maximize predictive accuracy for some outcome, given a large pool of potential predictors, without overfitting the sample. Research goals in psychology may sometimes call for high dimensional regression. One example is criterion-keyed scale construction, where a scale with maximal predictive validity must be built from a large item pool. Using this as a working example, we first introduce a core principle of SLT methods: minimization of expected prediction error (EPE). Minimizing EPE is fundamentally different than maximizing the within-sample likelihood, and hinges on building a predictive model of sufficient complexity to predict the outcome well, without undue complexity leading to overfitting. We describe how such models are built and refined via cross-validation. We then illustrate how 3 common SLT algorithms-supervised principal components, regularization, and boosting-can be used to construct a criterion-keyed scale predicting all-cause mortality, using a large personality item pool within a population cohort. Each algorithm illustrates a different approach to minimizing EPE. Finally, we consider broader applications of SLT predictive algorithms, both as supportive analytic tools for conventional methods, and as primary analytic tools in discovery phase research. We conclude that despite their differences from the classic null-hypothesis testing approach-or perhaps because of them-SLT methods may hold value as a statistically rigorous approach to exploratory regression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Weak value amplification considered harmful

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrie, Christopher; Combes, Joshua

2014-03-01

We show using statistically rigorous arguments that the technique of weak value amplification does not perform better than standard statistical techniques for the tasks of parameter estimation and signal detection. We show that using all data and considering the joint distribution of all measurement outcomes yields the optimal estimator. Moreover, we show estimation using the maximum likelihood technique with weak values as small as possible produces better performance for quantum metrology. In doing so, we identify the optimal experimental arrangement to be the one which reveals the maximal eigenvalue of the square of system observables. We also show these conclusions do not change in the presence of technical noise.

Statistical Analyses for Probabilistic Assessments of the Reactor Pressure Vessel Structural Integrity: Building a Master Curve on an Extract of the 'Euro' Fracture Toughness Dataset, Controlling Statistical Uncertainty for Both Mono-Temperature and multi-temperature tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Josse, Florent; Lefebvre, Yannick; Todeschini, Patrick

2006-07-01

Assessing the structural integrity of a nuclear Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized-thermal-shock (PTS) transients is extremely important to safety. In addition to conventional deterministic calculations to confirm RPV integrity, Electricite de France (EDF) carries out probabilistic analyses. Probabilistic analyses are interesting because some key variables, albeit conventionally taken at conservative values, can be modeled more accurately through statistical variability. One variable which significantly affects RPV structural integrity assessment is cleavage fracture initiation toughness. The reference fracture toughness method currently in use at EDF is the RCCM and ASME Code lower-bound K{sub IC} based on the indexing parameter RT{submore » NDT}. However, in order to quantify the toughness scatter for probabilistic analyses, the master curve method is being analyzed at present. Furthermore, the master curve method is a direct means of evaluating fracture toughness based on K{sub JC} data. In the framework of the master curve investigation undertaken by EDF, this article deals with the following two statistical items: building a master curve from an extract of a fracture toughness dataset (from the European project 'Unified Reference Fracture Toughness Design curves for RPV Steels') and controlling statistical uncertainty for both mono-temperature and multi-temperature tests. Concerning the first point, master curve temperature dependence is empirical in nature. To determine the 'original' master curve, Wallin postulated that a unified description of fracture toughness temperature dependence for ferritic steels is possible, and used a large number of data corresponding to nuclear-grade pressure vessel steels and welds. Our working hypothesis is that some ferritic steels may behave in slightly different ways. Therefore we focused exclusively on the basic french reactor vessel metal of types A508 Class 3 and A 533 grade B Class 1, taking the sampling level and direction into account as well as the test specimen type. As for the second point, the emphasis is placed on the uncertainties in applying the master curve approach. For a toughness dataset based on different specimens of a single product, application of the master curve methodology requires the statistical estimation of one parameter: the reference temperature T{sub 0}. Because of the limited number of specimens, estimation of this temperature is uncertain. The ASTM standard provides a rough evaluation of this statistical uncertainty through an approximate confidence interval. In this paper, a thorough study is carried out to build more meaningful confidence intervals (for both mono-temperature and multi-temperature tests). These results ensure better control over uncertainty, and allow rigorous analysis of the impact of its influencing factors: the number of specimens and the temperatures at which they have been tested. (authors)« less

Evaluation of tools used to measure calcium and/or dairy consumption in adults.

PubMed

Magarey, Anthea; Baulderstone, Lauren; Yaxley, Alison; Markow, Kylie; Miller, Michelle

2015-05-01

To identify and critique tools for the assessment of Ca and/or dairy intake in adults, in order to ascertain the most accurate and reliable tools available. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Articles reporting on originally developed tools or testing the reliability or validity of existing tools that measure Ca and/or dairy intake in adults were included. Author-defined criteria for reporting reliability and validity properties were applied. Studies conducted in Western countries. Adults. Thirty papers, utilising thirty-six tools assessing intake of dairy, Ca or both, were identified. Reliability testing was conducted on only two dairy and five Ca tools, with results indicating that only one dairy and two Ca tools were reliable. Validity testing was conducted for all but four Ca-only tools. There was high reliance in validity testing on lower-order tests such as correlation and failure to differentiate between statistical and clinically meaningful differences. Results of the validity testing suggest one dairy and five Ca tools are valid. Thus one tool was considered both reliable and valid for the assessment of dairy intake and only two tools proved reliable and valid for the assessment of Ca intake. While several tools are reliable and valid, their application across adult populations is limited by the populations in which they were tested. These results indicate a need for tools that assess Ca and/or dairy intake in adults to be rigorously tested for reliability and validity.

Opisthotonos

MedlinePlus

... The physical examination will include a complete checkup of the nervous system. Tests may include: Blood and urine tests Cerebrospinal ... urac.org). URAC's accreditation program is an independent audit to verify that A.D.A.M. follows rigorous standards of quality and accountability. A.D.A.M. is ...

The effectiveness of aquatic physical therapy in the treatment of fibromyalgia: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lima, Tarcisio Brandão; Dias, Josilainne Marcelino; Mazuquin, Bruno Fles; da Silva, Carla Tassiana; Nogueira, Regiane Mazzarioli Pereira; Marques, Amélia Pasqual; Lavado, Edson Lopes; Cardoso, Jefferson Rosa

2013-10-01

To assess the effectiveness of aquatic physical therapy in the treatment of fibromyalgia. The search strategy was undertaken using the following databases, from 1950 to December 2012: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, LILACS, SCIELO, WEB OF SCIENCE, SCOPUS, SPORTDiscus, Cochrane Library Controlled Trials Register, Cochrane Disease Group Trials Register, PEDro and DARE. The studies were separated into groups: Group I - aquatic physical therapy × no treatment, Group II - aquatic physical therapy × land-based exercises and Group III - aquatic physical therapy × other treatments. Seventy-two abstracts were found, 27 of which met the inclusion criteria. For the functional ability (Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire), three studies were considered with a treatment time of more than 20 weeks and a mean difference (MD) of -1.35 [-2.04; -0.67], P = 0.0001 was found in favour of the aquatic physical therapy group versus no treatment. The same results were identified for stiffness and the 6-minute walk test where two studies were pooled with an MD of -1.58 [-2.58; -0.58], P = 0.002 and 43.5 (metres) [3.8; 83.2], P = 0.03, respectively. Three meta-analyses showed statistically significant results in favour of the aquatic physical therapy (Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire, stiffness and the 6-minute walk test) during a period of longer than 20 weeks. Due to the low methodological rigor, the results were insufficient to demonstrate statistical and clinical differences in most of the outcomes.

Comparative evaluation of spectroscopic models using different multivariate statistical tools in a multicancer scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghanate, A. D.; Kothiwale, S.; Singh, S. P.; Bertrand, Dominique; Krishna, C. Murali

2011-02-01

Cancer is now recognized as one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality. Histopathological diagnosis, the gold standard, is shown to be subjective, time consuming, prone to interobserver disagreement, and often fails to predict prognosis. Optical spectroscopic methods are being contemplated as adjuncts or alternatives to conventional cancer diagnostics. The most important aspect of these approaches is their objectivity, and multivariate statistical tools play a major role in realizing it. However, rigorous evaluation of the robustness of spectral models is a prerequisite. The utility of Raman spectroscopy in the diagnosis of cancers has been well established. Until now, the specificity and applicability of spectral models have been evaluated for specific cancer types. In this study, we have evaluated the utility of spectroscopic models representing normal and malignant tissues of the breast, cervix, colon, larynx, and oral cavity in a broader perspective, using different multivariate tests. The limit test, which was used in our earlier study, gave high sensitivity but suffered from poor specificity. The performance of other methods such as factorial discriminant analysis and partial least square discriminant analysis are at par with more complex nonlinear methods such as decision trees, but they provide very little information about the classification model. This comparative study thus demonstrates not just the efficacy of Raman spectroscopic models but also the applicability and limitations of different multivariate tools for discrimination under complex conditions such as the multicancer scenario.

Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Devries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen

2016-01-01

A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM <~ 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM >~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

The Economic Costs of Poverty in the United States: Subsequent Effects of Children Growing Up Poor. Discussion Paper No. 1327-07

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holzer, Harry J.; Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore; Duncan, Greg J.; Ludwig, Jens

2007-01-01

In this paper, we review a range of rigorous research studies that estimate the average statistical relationships between children growing up in poverty and their earnings, propensity to commit crime, and quality of health later in life. We also review estimates of the costs that crime and poor health per person impose on the economy. Then we…

Understanding photon sideband statistics and correlation for determining phonon coherence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Ding; Yin, Xiaobo; Li, Baowen

2018-01-01

Generating and detecting coherent high-frequency heat-carrying phonons have been topics of great interest in recent years. Although there have been successful attempts in generating and observing coherent phonons, rigorous techniques to characterize and detect phonon coherence in a crystalline material have been lagging compared to what has been achieved for photons. One main challenge is a lack of detailed understanding of how detection signals for phonons can be related to coherence. The quantum theory of photoelectric detection has greatly advanced the ability to characterize photon coherence in the past century, and a similar theory for phonon detection is necessary. Here, we reexamine the optical sideband fluorescence technique that has been used to detect high-frequency phonons in materials with optically active defects. We propose a quantum theory of phonon detection using the sideband technique and found that there are distinct differences in sideband counting statistics between thermal and coherent phonons. We further propose a second-order correlation function unique to sideband signals that allows for a rigorous distinction between thermal and coherent phonons. Our theory is relevant to a correlation measurement with nontrivial response functions at the quantum level and can potentially bridge the gap of experimentally determining phonon coherence to be on par with that of photons.

Proposal for a biometrics of the cortical surface: a statistical method for relative surface distance metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookstein, Fred L.

1995-08-01

Recent advances in computational geometry have greatly extended the range of neuroanatomical questions that can be approached by rigorous quantitative methods. One of the major current challenges in this area is to describe the variability of human cortical surface form and its implications for individual differences in neurophysiological functioning. Existing techniques for representation of stochastically invaginated surfaces do not conduce to the necessary parametric statistical summaries. In this paper, following a hint from David Van Essen and Heather Drury, I sketch a statistical method customized for the constraints of this complex data type. Cortical surface form is represented by its Riemannian metric tensor and averaged according to parameters of a smooth averaged surface. Sulci are represented by integral trajectories of the smaller principal strains of this metric, and their statistics follow the statistics of that relative metric. The diagrams visualizing this tensor analysis look like alligator leather but summarize all aspects of cortical surface form in between the principal sulci, the reliable ones; no flattening is required.

Improving estimates of the number of `fake' leptons and other mis-reconstructed objects in hadron collider events: BoB's your UNCLE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillam, Thomas P. S.; Lester, Christopher G.

2014-11-01

We consider current and alternative approaches to setting limits on new physics signals having backgrounds from misidentified objects; for example jets misidentified as leptons, b-jets or photons. Many ATLAS and CMS analyses have used a heuristic "matrix method" for estimating the background contribution from such sources. We demonstrate that the matrix method suffers from statistical shortcomings that can adversely affect its ability to set robust limits. A rigorous alternative method is discussed, and is seen to produce fake rate estimates and limits with better qualities, but is found to be too costly to use. Having investigated the nature of the approximations used to derive the matrix method, we propose a third strategy that is seen to marry the speed of the matrix method to the performance and physicality of the more rigorous approach.

Rigorous evaluation of chemical measurement uncertainty: liquid chromatographic analysis methods using detector response factor calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toman, Blaza; Nelson, Michael A.; Bedner, Mary

2017-06-01

Chemical measurement methods are designed to promote accurate knowledge of a measurand or system. As such, these methods often allow elicitation of latent sources of variability and correlation in experimental data. They typically implement measurement equations that support quantification of effects associated with calibration standards and other known or observed parametric variables. Additionally, multiple samples and calibrants are usually analyzed to assess accuracy of the measurement procedure and repeatability by the analyst. Thus, a realistic assessment of uncertainty for most chemical measurement methods is not purely bottom-up (based on the measurement equation) or top-down (based on the experimental design), but inherently contains elements of both. Confidence in results must be rigorously evaluated for the sources of variability in all of the bottom-up and top-down elements. This type of analysis presents unique challenges due to various statistical correlations among the outputs of measurement equations. One approach is to use a Bayesian hierarchical (BH) model which is intrinsically rigorous, thus making it a straightforward method for use with complex experimental designs, particularly when correlations among data are numerous and difficult to elucidate or explicitly quantify. In simpler cases, careful analysis using GUM Supplement 1 (MC) methods augmented with random effects meta analysis yields similar results to a full BH model analysis. In this article we describe both approaches to rigorous uncertainty evaluation using as examples measurements of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 in solution reference materials via liquid chromatography with UV absorbance detection (LC-UV) and liquid chromatography mass spectrometric detection using isotope dilution (LC-IDMS).

Learning from Science and Sport - How we, Safety, "Engage with Rigor"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herd, A.

2012-01-01

As the world of spaceflight safety is relatively small and potentially inward-looking, we need to be aware of the "outside world". We should then try to remind ourselves to be open to the possibility that data, knowledge or experience from outside of the spaceflight community may provide some constructive alternate perspectives. This paper will assess aspects from two seemingly tangential fields, science and sport, and align these with the world of safety. In doing so some useful insights will be given to the challenges we face and may provide solutions relevant in our everyday (of safety engineering). Sport, particularly a contact sport such as rugby union, requires direct interaction between members of two (opposing) teams. Professional, accurately timed and positioned interaction for a desired outcome. These interactions, whilst an essential part of the game, are however not without their constraints. The rugby scrum has constraints as to the formation and engagement of the two teams. The controlled engagement provides for an interaction between the two teams in a safe manner. The constraints arising from the reality that an incorrect engagement could cause serious injury to members of either team. In academia, scientific rigor is applied to assure that the arguments provided and the conclusions drawn in academic papers presented for publication are valid, legitimate and credible. The scientific goal of the need for rigor may be expressed in the example of achieving a statistically relevant sample size, n, in order to assure analysis validity of the data pool. A failure to apply rigor could then place the entire study at risk of failing to have the respective paper published. This paper will consider the merits of these two different aspects, scientific rigor and sports engagement, and offer a reflective look at how this may provide a "modus operandi" for safety engineers at any level whether at their desks (creating or reviewing safety assessments) or in a safety review meeting (providing a verbal critique of the presented safety case).

Shelter from the Storm.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Urbaniak, Al; Farber, Yuriy

2002-01-01

Discusses how door manufacturers are introducing products designed to pass the rigorous tests needed to withstand tornadoes, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency's 320 and 361 directives. (EV)

The effects of hands-on-science instruction on the science achievement of middle school students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiggins, Felita

Student achievement in the Twenty First Century demands a new rigor in student science knowledge, since advances in science and technology require students to think and act like scientists. As a result, students must acquire proficient levels of knowledge and skills to support a knowledge base that is expanding exponentially with new scientific advances. This study examined the effects of hands-on-science instruction on the science achievement of middle school students. More specifically, this study was concerned with the influence of hands-on science instruction versus traditional science instruction on the science test scores of middle school students. The subjects in this study were one hundred and twenty sixth-grade students in six classes. Instruction involved lecture/discussion and hands-on activities carried out for a three week period. Specifically, the study ascertained the influence of the variables gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status on the science test scores of middle school students. Additionally, this study assessed the effect of the variables gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status on the attitudes of sixth grade students toward science. The two instruments used to collect data for this study were the Prentice Hall unit ecosystem test and the Scientific Work Experience Programs for Teachers Study (SWEPT) student's attitude survey. Moreover, the data for the study was treated using the One-Way Analysis of Covariance and the One-Way Analysis of Variance. The following findings were made based on the results: (1) A statistically significant difference existed in the science performance of middle school students exposed to hands-on science instruction. These students had significantly higher scores than the science performance of middle school students exposed to traditional instruction. (2) A statistically significant difference did not exist between the science scores of male and female middle school students. (3) A statistically significant difference did not exist between the science scores of African American and non-African American middle school students. (4) A statistically significant difference existed in the socioeconomic status of students who were not provided with assisted lunches. Students with unassisted lunches had significantly higher science scores than those middle school students who were provided with assisted lunches. (5) A statistically significant difference was not found in the attitude scores of middle school students who were exposed to hands-on or traditional science instruction. (6) A statistically significant difference was not found in the observed attitude scores of middle school students who were exposed to either hands-on or traditional science instruction by their socioeconomic status. (7) A statistically significant difference was not found in the observed attitude scores of male and female students. (8) A statistically significant difference was not found in the observed attitude scores of African American and non African American students.

Test Anxiety and the Curriculum: The Subject Matters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Everson, Howard T.; And Others

College students' self-reported test anxiety levels in English, mathematics, physical science, and social science were compared to develop empirical support for the claim that students, in general, are more anxious about tests in rigorous academic subjects than in the humanities and to understand the curriculum-related sources of anxiety. It was…

Carrying capacity in a heterogeneous environment with habitat connectivity.

PubMed

Zhang, Bo; Kula, Alex; Mack, Keenan M L; Zhai, Lu; Ryce, Arrix L; Ni, Wei-Ming; DeAngelis, Donald L; Van Dyken, J David

2017-09-01

A large body of theory predicts that populations diffusing in heterogeneous environments reach higher total size than if non-diffusing, and, paradoxically, higher size than in a corresponding homogeneous environment. However, this theory and its assumptions have not been rigorously tested. Here, we extended previous theory to include exploitable resources, proving qualitatively novel results, which we tested experimentally using spatially diffusing laboratory populations of yeast. Consistent with previous theory, we predicted and experimentally observed that spatial diffusion increased total equilibrium population abundance in heterogeneous environments, with the effect size depending on the relationship between r and K. Refuting previous theory, however, we discovered that homogeneously distributed resources support higher total carrying capacity than heterogeneously distributed resources, even with species diffusion. Our results provide rigorous experimental tests of new and old theory, demonstrating how the traditional notion of carrying capacity is ambiguous for populations diffusing in spatially heterogeneous environments. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Carrying capacity in a heterogeneous environment with habitat connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Bo; Kula, Alex; Mack, Keenan M.L.; Zhai, Lu; Ryce, Arrix L.; Ni, Wei-Ming; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Van Dyken, J. David

2017-01-01

A large body of theory predicts that populations diffusing in heterogeneous environments reach higher total size than if non-diffusing, and, paradoxically, higher size than in a corresponding homogeneous environment. However, this theory and its assumptions have not been rigorously tested. Here, we extended previous theory to include exploitable resources, proving qualitatively novel results, which we tested experimentally using spatially diffusing laboratory populations of yeast. Consistent with previous theory, we predicted and experimentally observed that spatial diffusion increased total equilibrium population abundance in heterogeneous environments, with the effect size depending on the relationship between r and K. Refuting previous theory, however, we discovered that homogeneously distributed resources support higher total carrying capacity than heterogeneously distributed resources, even with species diffusion. Our results provide rigorous experimental tests of new and old theory, demonstrating how the traditional notion of carrying capacity is ambiguous for populations diffusing in spatially heterogeneous environments.

Predicting and downscaling ENSO impacts on intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California: The 1997/98 event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gershunov, A.; Barnett, T.P.; Cayan, D.R.; Tubbs, T.; Goddard, L.

2000-01-01

Three long-range forecasting methods have been evaluated for prediction and downscaling of seasonal and intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California. Full-statistical, hybrid-dynamical - statistical and full-dynamical approaches have been used to forecast El Nin??o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - related total precipitation, daily precipitation frequency, and average intensity anomalies during the January - March season. For El Nin??o winters, the hybrid approach emerges as the best performer, while La Nin??a forecasting skill is poor. The full-statistical forecasting method features reasonable forecasting skill for both La Nin??a and El Nin??o winters. The performance of the full-dynamical approach could not be evaluated as rigorously as that of the other two forecasting schemes. Although the full-dynamical forecasting approach is expected to outperform simpler forecasting schemes in the long run, evidence is presented to conclude that, at present, the full-dynamical forecasting approach is the least viable of the three, at least in California. The authors suggest that operational forecasting of any intraseasonal temperature, precipitation, or streamflow statistic derivable from the available records is possible now for ENSO-extreme years.

A novel statistical method for quantitative comparison of multiple ChIP-seq datasets.

PubMed

Chen, Li; Wang, Chi; Qin, Zhaohui S; Wu, Hao

2015-06-15

ChIP-seq is a powerful technology to measure the protein binding or histone modification strength in the whole genome scale. Although there are a number of methods available for single ChIP-seq data analysis (e.g. 'peak detection'), rigorous statistical method for quantitative comparison of multiple ChIP-seq datasets with the considerations of data from control experiment, signal to noise ratios, biological variations and multiple-factor experimental designs is under-developed. In this work, we develop a statistical method to perform quantitative comparison of multiple ChIP-seq datasets and detect genomic regions showing differential protein binding or histone modification. We first detect peaks from all datasets and then union them to form a single set of candidate regions. The read counts from IP experiment at the candidate regions are assumed to follow Poisson distribution. The underlying Poisson rates are modeled as an experiment-specific function of artifacts and biological signals. We then obtain the estimated biological signals and compare them through the hypothesis testing procedure in a linear model framework. Simulations and real data analyses demonstrate that the proposed method provides more accurate and robust results compared with existing ones. An R software package ChIPComp is freely available at http://web1.sph.emory.edu/users/hwu30/software/ChIPComp.html. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reporting clinical outcomes of breast reconstruction: a systematic review.

PubMed

Potter, S; Brigic, A; Whiting, P F; Cawthorn, S J; Avery, K N L; Donovan, J L; Blazeby, J M

2011-01-05

Breast reconstruction after mastectomy for cancer requires accurate evaluation to inform evidence-based participatory decision making, but the standards of outcome reporting after breast reconstruction have not previously been considered. We used extensive searches to identify articles reporting surgical outcomes of breast reconstruction. We extracted data using published criteria for complication reporting modified to reflect reconstructive practice. Study designs included randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, and case series. The Cochrane Risk of Bias tool was used to critically appraise all study designs. Other criteria used to assess the studies were selection and funding bias, statistical power calculations, and institutional review board approval. Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used to compare the breadth and frequency of study outcomes, and χ² tests were used to compare the number of studies in each group reporting each of the published criteria. All statistical tests were two-sided. Surgical complications following breast reconstruction in 42,146 women were evaluated in 134 studies. These included 11 (8.2%) randomized trials, 74 (55.2%) cohort studies, and 49 (36.6%) case series. Fifty-three percent of studies demonstrated a disparity between methods and results in the numbers of complications reported. Complications were defined by 87 (64.9%) studies and graded by 78 (58.2%). Details such as the duration of follow-up and risk factors for adverse outcomes were omitted from 47 (35.1%) and 58 (43.3%) studies, respectively. Overall, the studies defined fewer than 20% of the complications they reported, and the definitions were largely inconsistent. The results of this systematic review suggest that outcome reporting in breast reconstruction is inconsistent and lacks methodological rigor. The development of a standardized core outcome set is recommended to improve outcome reporting in breast reconstruction.

Image synthesis for SAR system, calibration and processor design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holtzman, J. C.; Abbott, J. L.; Kaupp, V. H.; Frost, V. S.

1978-01-01

The Point Scattering Method of simulating radar imagery rigorously models all aspects of the imaging radar phenomena. Its computational algorithms operate on a symbolic representation of the terrain test site to calculate such parameters as range, angle of incidence, resolution cell size, etc. Empirical backscatter data and elevation data are utilized to model the terrain. Additionally, the important geometrical/propagation effects such as shadow, foreshortening, layover, and local angle of incidence are rigorously treated. Applications of radar image simulation to a proposed calibrated SAR system are highlighted: soil moisture detection and vegetation discrimination.

Stem and progenitor cells: the premature desertion of rigorous definitions.

PubMed

Seaberg, Raewyn M; van der Kooy, Derek

2003-03-01

A current disturbing trend in stem cell biology is the abandonment of rigorous definitions of stem and progenitor cells in favor of more ambiguous, all-encompassing concepts. However, recent studies suggest that there are consistent, functional differences in the biology of these two cell types. Admittedly, it can be difficult to harmonize the in vivo and in vitro functional differences between stem and progenitor cells. Nonetheless, these distinctions between cell types should be emphasized rather than ignored, as they can be used to test specific hypotheses in neural stem cell biology.

About Those Tests I Gave You... An Open Letter to My Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dandrea, Ruth Ann

2012-01-01

This article presents the author's open letter to her students. In her letter, the author apologizes to her students for the state's narrow and deceptive standardized test. She asserts that she does not oppose rigorous testing and she understands the purpose of evaluation. A good test can measure achievement and even inspire. But, she argues that…

All biology is computational biology.

PubMed

Markowetz, Florian

2017-03-01

Here, I argue that computational thinking and techniques are so central to the quest of understanding life that today all biology is computational biology. Computational biology brings order into our understanding of life, it makes biological concepts rigorous and testable, and it provides a reference map that holds together individual insights. The next modern synthesis in biology will be driven by mathematical, statistical, and computational methods being absorbed into mainstream biological training, turning biology into a quantitative science.

Verification of Compartmental Epidemiological Models using Metamorphic Testing, Model Checking and Visual Analytics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramanathan, Arvind; Steed, Chad A; Pullum, Laura L

Compartmental models in epidemiology are widely used as a means to model disease spread mechanisms and understand how one can best control the disease in case an outbreak of a widespread epidemic occurs. However, a significant challenge within the community is in the development of approaches that can be used to rigorously verify and validate these models. In this paper, we present an approach to rigorously examine and verify the behavioral properties of compartmen- tal epidemiological models under several common modeling scenarios including birth/death rates and multi-host/pathogen species. Using metamorphic testing, a novel visualization tool and model checking, we buildmore » a workflow that provides insights into the functionality of compartmental epidemiological models. Our initial results indicate that metamorphic testing can be used to verify the implementation of these models and provide insights into special conditions where these mathematical models may fail. The visualization front-end allows the end-user to scan through a variety of parameters commonly used in these models to elucidate the conditions under which an epidemic can occur. Further, specifying these models using a process algebra allows one to automatically construct behavioral properties that can be rigorously verified using model checking. Taken together, our approach allows for detecting implementation errors as well as handling conditions under which compartmental epidemiological models may fail to provide insights into disease spread dynamics.« less

Using Small-Scale Randomized Controlled Trials to Evaluate the Efficacy of New Curricular Materials

PubMed Central

Bass, Kristin M.; Stark, Louisa A.

2014-01-01

How can researchers in K–12 contexts stay true to the principles of rigorous evaluation designs within the constraints of classroom settings and limited funding? This paper explores this question by presenting a small-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) designed to test the efficacy of curricular supplemental materials on epigenetics. The researchers asked whether the curricular materials improved students’ understanding of the content more than an alternative set of activities. The field test was conducted in a diverse public high school setting with 145 students who were randomly assigned to a treatment or comparison condition. Findings indicate that students in the treatment condition scored significantly higher on the posttest than did students in the comparison group (effect size: Cohen's d = 0.40). The paper discusses the strengths and limitations of the RCT, the contextual factors that influenced its enactment, and recommendations for others wishing to conduct small-scale rigorous evaluations in educational settings. Our intention is for this paper to serve as a case study for university science faculty members who wish to employ scientifically rigorous evaluations in K–12 settings while limiting the scope and budget of their work. PMID:25452482

Time Series Expression Analyses Using RNA-seq: A Statistical Approach

PubMed Central

Oh, Sunghee; Song, Seongho; Grabowski, Gregory; Zhao, Hongyu; Noonan, James P.

2013-01-01

RNA-seq is becoming the de facto standard approach for transcriptome analysis with ever-reducing cost. It has considerable advantages over conventional technologies (microarrays) because it allows for direct identification and quantification of transcripts. Many time series RNA-seq datasets have been collected to study the dynamic regulations of transcripts. However, statistically rigorous and computationally efficient methods are needed to explore the time-dependent changes of gene expression in biological systems. These methods should explicitly account for the dependencies of expression patterns across time points. Here, we discuss several methods that can be applied to model timecourse RNA-seq data, including statistical evolutionary trajectory index (SETI), autoregressive time-lagged regression (AR(1)), and hidden Markov model (HMM) approaches. We use three real datasets and simulation studies to demonstrate the utility of these dynamic methods in temporal analysis. PMID:23586021

Thermodynamics of ideal quantum gas with fractional statistics in D dimensions.

PubMed

Potter, Geoffrey G; Müller, Gerhard; Karbach, Michael

2007-06-01

We present exact and explicit results for the thermodynamic properties (isochores, isotherms, isobars, response functions, velocity of sound) of a quantum gas in dimensions D > or = 1 and with fractional exclusion statistics 0 < or = g < or =1 connecting bosons (g=0) and fermions (g=1) . In D=1 the results are equivalent to those of the Calogero-Sutherland model. Emphasis is given to the crossover between bosonlike and fermionlike features, caused by aspects of the statistical interaction that mimic long-range attraction and short-range repulsion. A phase transition along the isobar occurs at a nonzero temperature in all dimensions. The T dependence of the velocity of sound is in simple relation to isochores and isobars. The effects of soft container walls are accounted for rigorously for the case of a pure power-law potential.

Time series expression analyses using RNA-seq: a statistical approach.

PubMed

Oh, Sunghee; Song, Seongho; Grabowski, Gregory; Zhao, Hongyu; Noonan, James P

2013-01-01

RNA-seq is becoming the de facto standard approach for transcriptome analysis with ever-reducing cost. It has considerable advantages over conventional technologies (microarrays) because it allows for direct identification and quantification of transcripts. Many time series RNA-seq datasets have been collected to study the dynamic regulations of transcripts. However, statistically rigorous and computationally efficient methods are needed to explore the time-dependent changes of gene expression in biological systems. These methods should explicitly account for the dependencies of expression patterns across time points. Here, we discuss several methods that can be applied to model timecourse RNA-seq data, including statistical evolutionary trajectory index (SETI), autoregressive time-lagged regression (AR(1)), and hidden Markov model (HMM) approaches. We use three real datasets and simulation studies to demonstrate the utility of these dynamic methods in temporal analysis.

High-Dimensional Multivariate Repeated Measures Analysis with Unequal Covariance Matrices.

PubMed

Harrar, Solomon W; Kong, Xiaoli

2015-03-01

In this paper, test statistics for repeated measures design are introduced when the dimension is large. By large dimension is meant the number of repeated measures and the total sample size grow together but either one could be larger than the other. Asymptotic distribution of the statistics are derived for the equal as well as unequal covariance cases in the balanced as well as unbalanced cases. The asymptotic framework considered requires proportional growth of the sample sizes and the dimension of the repeated measures in the unequal covariance case. In the equal covariance case, one can grow at much faster rate than the other. The derivations of the asymptotic distributions mimic that of Central Limit Theorem with some important peculiarities addressed with sufficient rigor. Consistent and unbiased estimators of the asymptotic variances, which make efficient use of all the observations, are also derived. Simulation study provides favorable evidence for the accuracy of the asymptotic approximation under the null hypothesis. Power simulations have shown that the new methods have comparable power with a popular method known to work well in low-dimensional situation but the new methods have shown enormous advantage when the dimension is large. Data from Electroencephalograph (EEG) experiment is analyzed to illustrate the application of the results.

High-Dimensional Multivariate Repeated Measures Analysis with Unequal Covariance Matrices

PubMed Central

Harrar, Solomon W.; Kong, Xiaoli

2015-01-01

In this paper, test statistics for repeated measures design are introduced when the dimension is large. By large dimension is meant the number of repeated measures and the total sample size grow together but either one could be larger than the other. Asymptotic distribution of the statistics are derived for the equal as well as unequal covariance cases in the balanced as well as unbalanced cases. The asymptotic framework considered requires proportional growth of the sample sizes and the dimension of the repeated measures in the unequal covariance case. In the equal covariance case, one can grow at much faster rate than the other. The derivations of the asymptotic distributions mimic that of Central Limit Theorem with some important peculiarities addressed with sufficient rigor. Consistent and unbiased estimators of the asymptotic variances, which make efficient use of all the observations, are also derived. Simulation study provides favorable evidence for the accuracy of the asymptotic approximation under the null hypothesis. Power simulations have shown that the new methods have comparable power with a popular method known to work well in low-dimensional situation but the new methods have shown enormous advantage when the dimension is large. Data from Electroencephalograph (EEG) experiment is analyzed to illustrate the application of the results. PMID:26778861

Deriving Color-Color Transformations for VRI Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, B. J.; Joner, M. D.

2006-12-01

In this paper, transformations between Cousins R-I and other indices are considered. New transformations to Cousins V-R and Johnson V-K are derived, a published transformation involving T1-T2 on the Washington system is rederived, and the basis for a transformation involving b-y is considered. In addition, a statistically rigorous procedure for deriving such transformations is presented and discussed in detail. Highlights of the discussion include (1) the need for statistical analysis when least-squares relations are determined and interpreted, (2) the permitted forms and best forms for such relations, (3) the essential role played by accidental errors, (4) the decision process for selecting terms to appear in the relations, (5) the use of plots of residuals, (6) detection of influential data, (7) a protocol for assessing systematic effects from absorption features and other sources, (8) the reasons for avoiding extrapolation of the relations, (9) a protocol for ensuring uniformity in data used to determine the relations, and (10) the derivation and testing of the accidental errors of those data. To put the last of these subjects in perspective, it is shown that rms errors for VRI photometry have been as small as 6 mmag for more than three decades and that standard errors for quantities derived from such photometry can be as small as 1 mmag or less.

GOEAST: a web-based software toolkit for Gene Ontology enrichment analysis.

PubMed

Zheng, Qi; Wang, Xiu-Jie

2008-07-01

Gene Ontology (GO) analysis has become a commonly used approach for functional studies of large-scale genomic or transcriptomic data. Although there have been a lot of software with GO-related analysis functions, new tools are still needed to meet the requirements for data generated by newly developed technologies or for advanced analysis purpose. Here, we present a Gene Ontology Enrichment Analysis Software Toolkit (GOEAST), an easy-to-use web-based toolkit that identifies statistically overrepresented GO terms within given gene sets. Compared with available GO analysis tools, GOEAST has the following improved features: (i) GOEAST displays enriched GO terms in graphical format according to their relationships in the hierarchical tree of each GO category (biological process, molecular function and cellular component), therefore, provides better understanding of the correlations among enriched GO terms; (ii) GOEAST supports analysis for data from various sources (probe or probe set IDs of Affymetrix, Illumina, Agilent or customized microarrays, as well as different gene identifiers) and multiple species (about 60 prokaryote and eukaryote species); (iii) One unique feature of GOEAST is to allow cross comparison of the GO enrichment status of multiple experiments to identify functional correlations among them. GOEAST also provides rigorous statistical tests to enhance the reliability of analysis results. GOEAST is freely accessible at http://omicslab.genetics.ac.cn/GOEAST/

Do two machine-learning based prognostic signatures for breast cancer capture the same biological processes?

PubMed

Drier, Yotam; Domany, Eytan

2011-03-14

The fact that there is very little if any overlap between the genes of different prognostic signatures for early-discovery breast cancer is well documented. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy have been explained by the limits of simple machine-learning identification and ranking techniques, and the biological relevance and meaning of the prognostic gene lists was questioned. Subsequently, proponents of the prognostic gene lists claimed that different lists do capture similar underlying biological processes and pathways. The present study places under scrutiny the validity of this claim, for two important gene lists that are at the focus of current large-scale validation efforts. We performed careful enrichment analysis, controlling the effects of multiple testing in a manner which takes into account the nested dependent structure of gene ontologies. In contradiction to several previous publications, we find that the only biological process or pathway for which statistically significant concordance can be claimed is cell proliferation, a process whose relevance and prognostic value was well known long before gene expression profiling. We found that the claims reported by others, of wider concordance between the biological processes captured by the two prognostic signatures studied, were found either to be lacking statistical rigor or were in fact based on addressing some other question.

An information-theoretic approach to the modeling and analysis of whole-genome bisulfite sequencing data.

PubMed

Jenkinson, Garrett; Abante, Jordi; Feinberg, Andrew P; Goutsias, John

2018-03-07

DNA methylation is a stable form of epigenetic memory used by cells to control gene expression. Whole genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS) has emerged as a gold-standard experimental technique for studying DNA methylation by producing high resolution genome-wide methylation profiles. Statistical modeling and analysis is employed to computationally extract and quantify information from these profiles in an effort to identify regions of the genome that demonstrate crucial or aberrant epigenetic behavior. However, the performance of most currently available methods for methylation analysis is hampered by their inability to directly account for statistical dependencies between neighboring methylation sites, thus ignoring significant information available in WGBS reads. We present a powerful information-theoretic approach for genome-wide modeling and analysis of WGBS data based on the 1D Ising model of statistical physics. This approach takes into account correlations in methylation by utilizing a joint probability model that encapsulates all information available in WGBS methylation reads and produces accurate results even when applied on single WGBS samples with low coverage. Using the Shannon entropy, our approach provides a rigorous quantification of methylation stochasticity in individual WGBS samples genome-wide. Furthermore, it utilizes the Jensen-Shannon distance to evaluate differences in methylation distributions between a test and a reference sample. Differential performance assessment using simulated and real human lung normal/cancer data demonstrate a clear superiority of our approach over DSS, a recently proposed method for WGBS data analysis. Critically, these results demonstrate that marginal methods become statistically invalid when correlations are present in the data. This contribution demonstrates clear benefits and the necessity of modeling joint probability distributions of methylation using the 1D Ising model of statistical physics and of quantifying methylation stochasticity using concepts from information theory. By employing this methodology, substantial improvement of DNA methylation analysis can be achieved by effectively taking into account the massive amount of statistical information available in WGBS data, which is largely ignored by existing methods.

Aflatoxin

MedlinePlus

... found in the following foods: Peanuts and peanut butter Tree nuts such as pecans Corn Wheat Oil ... foods that may contain aflatoxin. Peanuts and peanut butter are some of the most rigorously tested products ...

Expected values and variances of Bragg peak intensities measured in a nanocrystalline powder diffraction experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Öztürk, Hande; Noyan, I. Cevdet

A rigorous study of sampling and intensity statistics applicable for a powder diffraction experiment as a function of crystallite size is presented. Our analysis yields approximate equations for the expected value, variance and standard deviations for both the number of diffracting grains and the corresponding diffracted intensity for a given Bragg peak. The classical formalism published in 1948 by Alexander, Klug & Kummer [J. Appl. Phys.(1948),19, 742–753] appears as a special case, limited to large crystallite sizes, here. It is observed that both the Lorentz probability expression and the statistics equations used in the classical formalism are inapplicable for nanocrystallinemore » powder samples.« less

Expected values and variances of Bragg peak intensities measured in a nanocrystalline powder diffraction experiment

DOE PAGES

Öztürk, Hande; Noyan, I. Cevdet

2017-08-24

A rigorous study of sampling and intensity statistics applicable for a powder diffraction experiment as a function of crystallite size is presented. Our analysis yields approximate equations for the expected value, variance and standard deviations for both the number of diffracting grains and the corresponding diffracted intensity for a given Bragg peak. The classical formalism published in 1948 by Alexander, Klug & Kummer [J. Appl. Phys.(1948),19, 742–753] appears as a special case, limited to large crystallite sizes, here. It is observed that both the Lorentz probability expression and the statistics equations used in the classical formalism are inapplicable for nanocrystallinemore » powder samples.« less

Evaluation of tools used to measure calcium and/or dairy consumption in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Magarey, Anthea; Yaxley, Alison; Markow, Kylie; Baulderstone, Lauren; Miller, Michelle

2014-08-01

To identify and critique tools that assess Ca and/or dairy intake in children to ascertain the most accurate and reliable tools available. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Articles were included on the basis that they reported on a tool measuring Ca and/or dairy intake in children in Western countries and reported on originally developed tools or tested the validity or reliability of existing tools. Defined criteria for reporting reliability and validity properties were applied. Studies in Western countries. Children. Eighteen papers reporting on two tools that assessed dairy intake, ten that assessed Ca intake and five that assessed both dairy and Ca were identified. An examination of tool testing revealed high reliance on lower-order tests such as correlation and failure to differentiate between statistical and clinically meaningful significance. Only half of the tools were tested for reliability and results indicated that only one Ca tool and one dairy tool were reliable. Validation studies showed acceptable levels of agreement (<100 mg difference) and/or sensitivity (62-83 %) and specificity (55-77 %) in three Ca tools. With reference to the testing methodology and results, no tools were considered both valid and reliable for the assessment of dairy intake and only one tool proved valid and reliable for the assessment of Ca intake. These results clearly indicate the need for development and rigorous testing of tools to assess Ca and/or dairy intake in children and adolescents.

Mechanical properties of frog skeletal muscles in iodoacetic acid rigor.

PubMed Central

Mulvany, M J

1975-01-01

1. Methods have been developed for describing the length: tension characteristics of frog skeletal muscles which go into rigor at 4 degrees C following iodoacetic acid poisoning either in the presence of Ca2+ (Ca-rigor) or its absence (Ca-free-rigor). 2. Such rigor muscles showed less resistance to slow stretch (slow rigor resistance) that to fast stretch (fast rigor resistance). The slow and fast rigor resistances of Ca-free-rigor muscles were much lower than those of Ca-rigor muscles. 3. The slow rigor resistance of Ca-rigor muscles was proportional to the amount of overlap between the contractile filaments present when the muscles were put into rigor. 4. Withdrawing Ca2+ from Ca-rigor muscles (induced-Ca-free rigor) reduced their slow and fast rigor resistances. Readdition of Ca2+ (but not Mg2+, Mn2+ or Sr2+) reversed the effect. 5. The slow and fast rigor resistances of Ca-rigor muscles (but not of Ca-free-rigor muscles) decreased with time. 6.The sarcomere structure of Ca-rigor and induced-Ca-free rigor muscles stretched by 0.2lo was destroyed in proportion to the amount of stretch, but the lengths of the remaining intact sarcomeres were essentially unchanged. This suggests that there had been a successive yielding of the weakeast sarcomeres. 7. The difference between the slow and fast rigor resistance and the effect of calcium on these resistances are discussed in relation to possible variations in the strength of crossbridges between the thick and thin filaments. Images Plate 1 Plate 2 PMID:1082023

The incidence of secondary vertebral fracture of vertebral augmentation techniques versus conservative treatment for painful osteoporotic vertebral fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Song, Dawei; Meng, Bin; Gan, Minfeng; Niu, Junjie; Li, Shiyan; Chen, Hao; Yuan, Chenxi; Yang, Huilin

2015-08-01

Percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) and balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) are minimally invasive and effective vertebral augmentation techniques for managing osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs). Recent meta-analyses have compared the incidence of secondary vertebral fractures between patients treated with vertebral augmentation techniques or conservative treatment; however, the inclusions were not thorough and rigorous enough, and the effects of each technique on the incidence of secondary vertebral fractures remain unclear. To perform an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of the studies with more rigorous inclusion criteria on the effects of vertebral augmentation techniques and conservative treatment for OVCF on the incidence of secondary vertebral fractures. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, SpringerLink, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library database were searched for relevant original articles comparing the incidence of secondary vertebral fractures between vertebral augmentation techniques and conservative treatment for patients with OVCFs. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective non-randomized controlled trials (NRCTs) were identified. The methodological qualities of the studies were evaluated, relevant data were extracted and recorded, and an appropriate meta-analysis was conducted. A total of 13 articles were included. The pooled results from included studies showed no statistically significant differences in the incidence of secondary vertebral fractures between patients treated with vertebral augmentation techniques and conservative treatment. Subgroup analysis comparing different study designs, durations of symptoms, follow-up times, races of patients, and techniques were conducted, and no significant differences in the incidence of secondary fractures were identified (P > 0.05). No obvious publication bias was detected by either Begg's test (P = 0.360 > 0.05) or Egger's test (P = 0.373 > 0.05). Despite current thinking in the field that vertebral augmentation procedures may increase the incidence of secondary fractures, we found no differences in the incidence of secondary fractures between vertebral augmentation techniques and conservative treatment for patients with OVCFs. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2014.

Constructed-Response Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swinford, Ashleigh

2016-01-01

With rigor outlined in state and Common Core standards and the addition of constructed-response test items to most state tests, math constructed-response questions have become increasingly popular in today's classroom. Although constructed-response problems can present a challenge for students, they do offer a glimpse of students' learning through…

Model-Based Assessment of Estuary Ecosystem Health Using the Latent Health Factor Index, with Application to the Richibucto Estuary

PubMed Central

Chiu, Grace S.; Wu, Margaret A.; Lu, Lin

2013-01-01

The ability to quantitatively assess ecological health is of great interest to those tasked with monitoring and conserving ecosystems. For decades, biomonitoring research and policies have relied on multimetric health indices of various forms. Although indices are numbers, many are constructed based on qualitative procedures, thus limiting the quantitative rigor of the practical interpretations of such indices. The statistical modeling approach to construct the latent health factor index (LHFI) was recently developed. With ecological data that otherwise are used to construct conventional multimetric indices, the LHFI framework expresses such data in a rigorous quantitative model, integrating qualitative features of ecosystem health and preconceived ecological relationships among such features. This hierarchical modeling approach allows unified statistical inference of health for observed sites (along with prediction of health for partially observed sites, if desired) and of the relevance of ecological drivers, all accompanied by formal uncertainty statements from a single, integrated analysis. Thus far, the LHFI approach has been demonstrated and validated in a freshwater context. We adapt this approach to modeling estuarine health, and illustrate it on the previously unassessed system in Richibucto in New Brunswick, Canada, where active oyster farming is a potential stressor through its effects on sediment properties. Field data correspond to health metrics that constitute the popular AZTI marine biotic index and the infaunal trophic index, as well as abiotic predictors preconceived to influence biota. Our paper is the first to construct a scientifically sensible model that rigorously identifies the collective explanatory capacity of salinity, distance downstream, channel depth, and silt–clay content–all regarded a priori as qualitatively important abiotic drivers–towards site health in the Richibucto ecosystem. This suggests the potential effectiveness of the LHFI approach for assessing not only freshwater systems but aquatic ecosystems in general. PMID:23785443

Competitive Abilities in Experimental Microcosms Are Accurately Predicted by a Demographic Index for R*

PubMed Central

Murrell, Ebony G.; Juliano, Steven A.

2012-01-01

Resource competition theory predicts that R*, the equilibrium resource amount yielding zero growth of a consumer population, should predict species' competitive abilities for that resource. This concept has been supported for unicellular organisms, but has not been well-tested for metazoans, probably due to the difficulty of raising experimental populations to equilibrium and measuring population growth rates for species with long or complex life cycles. We developed an index (Rindex) of R* based on demography of one insect cohort, growing from egg to adult in a non-equilibrium setting, and tested whether Rindex yielded accurate predictions of competitive abilities using mosquitoes as a model system. We estimated finite rate of increase (λ′) from demographic data for cohorts of three mosquito species raised with different detritus amounts, and estimated each species' Rindex using nonlinear regressions of λ′ vs. initial detritus amount. All three species' Rindex differed significantly, and accurately predicted competitive hierarchy of the species determined in simultaneous pairwise competition experiments. Our Rindex could provide estimates and rigorous statistical comparisons of competitive ability for organisms for which typical chemostat methods and equilibrium population conditions are impractical. PMID:22970128

High School Equivalency Testing in Washington. Forum: Responding to Changes in High School Equivalency Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerr, Jon

2015-01-01

In 2013, as new high school equivalency exams were being developed and implemented across the nation and states were deciding which test was best for their population, Washington state identified the need to adopt the most rigorous test so that preparation to take it would equip students with the skills to be able to move directly from adult…

The development of an Infrared Environmental System for TOPEX Solar Panel Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noller, E.

1994-01-01

Environmental testing and flight qualification of the TOPEX/POSEIDON spacecraft solar panels were performed with infrared (IR) lamps and a control system that were newly designed and integrated. The basic goal was more rigorous testing of the costly panels' new composite-structure design without jeopardizing their safety. The technique greatly reduces the costs and high risks of testing flight solar panels.

Real-Time Ada Problem Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-24

Specified Test Verification Matri_ .. 39 3.2.6.5 Test Generation Assistance. .............. . .. ......... 40 3.2.7 Maintenance...lack of intimate knowledge of how the runtime links to the compiler generated code. Furthermore, the runime must meet a rigorous set of tests to insure...projects, and is not provided. Along with the library, a set of tests should be provided to verify the accuracy of the library after changes have been

Contemporary use trends and survival outcomes in patients undergoing radical cystectomy or bladder-preservation therapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

PubMed

Cahn, David B; Handorf, Elizabeth A; Ghiraldi, Eric M; Ristau, Benjamin T; Geynisman, Daniel M; Churilla, Thomas M; Horwitz, Eric M; Sobczak, Mark L; Chen, David Y T; Viterbo, Rosalia; Greenberg, Richard E; Kutikov, Alexander; Uzzo, Robert G; Smaldone, Marc C

2017-11-15

The current study was performed to examine temporal trends and compare overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing radical cystectomy (RC) or bladder-preservation therapy (BPT) for muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. The authors reviewed the National Cancer Data Base to identify patients with AJCC stage II to III urothelial carcinoma of the bladder from 2004 through 2013. Patients receiving BPT were stratified as having received any external-beam radiotherapy (any XRT), definitive XRT (50-80 grays), and definitive XRT with chemotherapy (CRT). Treatment trends and OS outcomes for the BPT and RC cohorts were evaluated using Cochran-Armitage tests, unadjusted Kaplan-Meier curves, adjusted Cox multivariate regression, and propensity score matching, using increasingly stringent selection criteria. A total of 32,300 patients met the inclusion criteria and were treated with RC (22,680 patients) or BPT (9620 patients). Of the patients treated with BPT, 26.4% (2540 patients) and 15.5% (1489 patients), respectively, were treated with definitive XRT and CRT. Improved OS was observed for RC in all groups. After adjustments with more rigorous statistical models controlling for confounders and with more restrictive BPT cohorts, the magnitude of the OS benefit became attenuated on multivariate (any XRT: hazard ratio [HR], 2.115 [95% confidence interval [95% CI], 2.045-2.188]; definitive XRT: HR, 1.870 [95% CI, 1.773-1.972]; and CRT: HR, 1.578 [95% CI, 1.474-1.691]) and propensity score (any XRT: HR, 2.008 [95% CI, 1.871-2.154]; definitive XRT: HR, 1.606 [95% CI, 1.453-1.776]; and CRT: HR, 1.406 [95% CI, 1.235-1.601]) analyses. In the National Cancer Data Base, receipt of BPT was associated with decreased OS compared with RC in patients with stage II to III urothelial carcinoma. Increasingly stringent definitions of BPT and more rigorous statistical methods adjusting for selection biases attenuated observed survival differences. Cancer 2017;123:4337-45. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Missing data treatments matter: an analysis of multiple imputation for anterior cervical discectomy and fusion procedures.

PubMed

Ondeck, Nathaniel T; Fu, Michael C; Skrip, Laura A; McLynn, Ryan P; Cui, Jonathan J; Basques, Bryce A; Albert, Todd J; Grauer, Jonathan N

2018-04-09

The presence of missing data is a limitation of large datasets, including the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP). In addressing this issue, most studies use complete case analysis, which excludes cases with missing data, thus potentially introducing selection bias. Multiple imputation, a statistically rigorous approach that approximates missing data and preserves sample size, may be an improvement over complete case analysis. The present study aims to evaluate the impact of using multiple imputation in comparison with complete case analysis for assessing the associations between preoperative laboratory values and adverse outcomes following anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) procedures. This is a retrospective review of prospectively collected data. Patients undergoing one-level ACDF were identified in NSQIP 2012-2015. Perioperative adverse outcome variables assessed included the occurrence of any adverse event, severe adverse events, and hospital readmission. Missing preoperative albumin and hematocrit values were handled using complete case analysis and multiple imputation. These preoperative laboratory levels were then tested for associations with 30-day postoperative outcomes using logistic regression. A total of 11,999 patients were included. Of this cohort, 63.5% of patients had missing preoperative albumin and 9.9% had missing preoperative hematocrit. When using complete case analysis, only 4,311 patients were studied. The removed patients were significantly younger, healthier, of a common body mass index, and male. Logistic regression analysis failed to identify either preoperative hypoalbuminemia or preoperative anemia as significantly associated with adverse outcomes. When employing multiple imputation, all 11,999 patients were included. Preoperative hypoalbuminemia was significantly associated with the occurrence of any adverse event and severe adverse events. Preoperative anemia was significantly associated with the occurrence of any adverse event, severe adverse events, and hospital readmission. Multiple imputation is a rigorous statistical procedure that is being increasingly used to address missing values in large datasets. Using this technique for ACDF avoided the loss of cases that may have affected the representativeness and power of the study and led to different results than complete case analysis. Multiple imputation should be considered for future spine studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Counting in Lattices: Combinatorial Problems from Statistical Mechanics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randall, Dana Jill

In this thesis we consider two classical combinatorial problems arising in statistical mechanics: counting matchings and self-avoiding walks in lattice graphs. The first problem arises in the study of the thermodynamical properties of monomers and dimers (diatomic molecules) in crystals. Fisher, Kasteleyn and Temperley discovered an elegant technique to exactly count the number of perfect matchings in two dimensional lattices, but it is not applicable for matchings of arbitrary size, or in higher dimensional lattices. We present the first efficient approximation algorithm for computing the number of matchings of any size in any periodic lattice in arbitrary dimension. The algorithm is based on Monte Carlo simulation of a suitable Markov chain and has rigorously derived performance guarantees that do not rely on any assumptions. In addition, we show that these results generalize to counting matchings in any graph which is the Cayley graph of a finite group. The second problem is counting self-avoiding walks in lattices. This problem arises in the study of the thermodynamics of long polymer chains in dilute solution. While there are a number of Monte Carlo algorithms used to count self -avoiding walks in practice, these are heuristic and their correctness relies on unproven conjectures. In contrast, we present an efficient algorithm which relies on a single, widely-believed conjecture that is simpler than preceding assumptions and, more importantly, is one which the algorithm itself can test. Thus our algorithm is reliable, in the sense that it either outputs answers that are guaranteed, with high probability, to be correct, or finds a counterexample to the conjecture. In either case we know we can trust our results and the algorithm is guaranteed to run in polynomial time. This is the first algorithm for counting self-avoiding walks in which the error bounds are rigorously controlled. This work was supported in part by an AT&T graduate fellowship, a University of California dissertation year fellowship and Esprit working group "RAND". Part of this work was done while visiting ICSI and the University of Edinburgh.

Transcriptional response according to strength of calorie restriction in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Lee, Yae-Lim; Lee, Cheol-Koo

2008-09-30

To characterize gene expression that is dependent on the strength of calorie restriction (CR), we obtained transcriptome at different levels of glucose, which is a major energy and carbon source for budding yeast. To faithfully mimic mammalian CR in yeast culture, we reconstituted and grew seeding yeast cells in fresh 2% YPD media before inoculating into 2%, 1%, 0.5% and 0.25% YPD media to reflect different CR strengths. We collected and characterized 160 genes that responded to CR strength based on the rigorous statistical analyses of multiple test corrected ANOVA (adjusted p0.7). Based on the individual gene studies and the GO Term Finder analysis of 160 genes, we found that CR dose-dependently and gradually increased mitochondrial function at the transcriptional level. Therefore, we suggest these 160 genes are markers that respond to CR strength and that might be useful in elucidating CR mechanisms, especially how stronger CR extends life span more.

Developing single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers from transcriptome sequences for identification of longan (Dimocarpus longan) germplasm

PubMed Central

Wang, Boyi; Tan, Hua-Wei; Fang, Wanping; Meinhardt, Lyndel W; Mischke, Sue; Matsumoto, Tracie; Zhang, Dapeng

2015-01-01

Longan (Dimocarpus longan Lour.) is an important tropical fruit tree crop. Accurate varietal identification is essential for germplasm management and breeding. Using longan transcriptome sequences from public databases, we developed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers; validated 60 SNPs in 50 longan germplasm accessions, including cultivated varieties and wild germplasm; and designated 25 SNP markers that unambiguously identified all tested longan varieties with high statistical rigor (P<0.0001). Multiple trees from the same clone were verified and off-type trees were identified. Diversity analysis revealed genetic relationships among analyzed accessions. Cultivated varieties differed significantly from wild populations (Fst=0.300; P<0.001), demonstrating untapped genetic diversity for germplasm conservation and utilization. Within cultivated varieties, apparent differences between varieties from China and those from Thailand and Hawaii indicated geographic patterns of genetic differentiation. These SNP markers provide a powerful tool to manage longan genetic resources and breeding, with accurate and efficient genotype identification. PMID:26504559

Genetically improved ponderosa pine seedlings outgrow nursery-run seedlings with and without competition -- Early findings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDonald, P.M.; Fiddler, G.O.; Kitzmiller, J.H.

1994-04-01

Three classes of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seedlings (nursery-run, wind-pollinated, control-pollinated) were evaluated for stem height and diameter at the USDA Forest Service's Placerville Nursery and the Georgetown Range District in northern California. Pines in all three classes were grown with competing vegetation or maintained in a free-to-grow condition. Control-pollinated seedlings were statistically taller than nursery-run counterparts when outplanted, and after 1 and 2 growing seasons in the field with and without competition. They also had significantly larger diameters when outplanted and after 2 growing seasons in the field when free to grow. Wind-pollinated seedlings grew taller than nursery-run seedlingsmore » when free to grow. A large amount of competing vegetation [bearclover (Chamaebatia foliolosa)--29,490 plants per acre; herbaceous vegetation--11,500; hardwood sprouts--233; and whiteleaf manzanita (Arctostaphylos viscida) seedlings--100] ensure that future pine development will be tested rigorously.« less

Using the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale 21 (DASS-21) across cultures.

PubMed

Oei, Tian P S; Sawang, Sukanlaya; Goh, Yong Wah; Mukhtar, Firdaus

2013-01-01

The DASS-21 is a well-established instrument for measuring depression, anxiety, and stress with good reliability and validity reported from Hispanic American, British, and Australian adults. However, the lack of appropriate validation among Asian populations continues to pose concerns over the use of DASS-21 in Asian samples. Cultural variation may influence the individual's experience and emotional expression. Thus, when researchers and practitioners employ Western-based assessments with Asian populations by directly translating them without an appropriate validation, the process can be challenging. We conducted a series of rigorous statistical tests and minimized any potential confounds from the demographic information. Following factor analyses, we performed multigroup analysis across six nations to demonstrate consistency of our findings. The advantages of this revised DASS-18 stress scale are twofold. First, it possesses fewer items, which results in a cleaner factorial structure. Second, it has a smaller interfactor correlation. With these justifications, the revised DASS-18 stress scale is potentially more suitable for Asian populations. Nonetheless, given limitations, findings should be considered preliminary.

An Overview of the Clinical Use of Filter Paper in the Diagnosis of Tropical Diseases

PubMed Central

Smit, Pieter W.; Elliott, Ivo; Peeling, Rosanna W.; Mabey, David; Newton, Paul N.

2014-01-01

Tropical infectious diseases diagnosis and surveillance are often hampered by difficulties of sample collection and transportation. Filter paper potentially provides a useful medium to help overcome such problems. We reviewed the literature on the use of filter paper, focusing on the evaluation of nucleic acid and serological assays for diagnosis of infectious diseases using dried blood spots (DBS) compared with recognized gold standards. We reviewed 296 eligible studies and included 101 studies evaluating DBS and 192 studies on other aspects of filter paper use. We also discuss the use of filter paper with other body fluids and for tropical veterinary medicine. In general, DBS perform with sensitivities and specificities similar or only slightly inferior to gold standard sample types. However, important problems were revealed with the uncritical use of DBS, inappropriate statistical analysis, and lack of standardized methodology. DBS have great potential to empower healthcare workers by making laboratory-based diagnostic tests more readily accessible, but additional and more rigorous research is needed. PMID:24366501

Rigorous mathematical modelling for a Fast Corrector Power Supply in TPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, K.-B.; Liu, C.-Y.; Chien, Y.-C.; Wang, B.-S.; Wong, Y. S.

2017-04-01

To enhance the stability of beam orbit, a Fast Orbit Feedback System (FOFB) eliminating undesired disturbances was installed and tested in the 3rd generation synchrotron light source of Taiwan Photon Source (TPS) of National Synchrotron Radiation Research Center (NSRRC). The effectiveness of the FOFB greatly depends on the output performance of Fast Corrector Power Supply (FCPS); therefore, the design and implementation of an accurate FCPS is essential. A rigorous mathematical modelling is very useful to shorten design time and improve design performance of a FCPS. A rigorous mathematical modelling derived by the state-space averaging method for a FCPS in the FOFB of TPS composed of a full-bridge topology is therefore proposed in this paper. The MATLAB/SIMULINK software is used to construct the proposed mathematical modelling and to conduct the simulations of the FCPS. Simulations for the effects of the different resolutions of ADC on the output accuracy of the FCPS are investigated. A FCPS prototype is realized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed rigorous mathematical modelling for the FCPS. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed mathematical modelling is helpful for selecting the appropriate components to meet the accuracy requirements of a FCPS.

A Prospective Test of Cognitive Vulnerability Models of Depression with Adolescent Girls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bohon, Cara; Stice, Eric; Burton, Emily; Fudell, Molly; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan

2008-01-01

This study sought to provide a more rigorous prospective test of two cognitive vulnerability models of depression with longitudinal data from 496 adolescent girls. Results supported the cognitive vulnerability model in that stressors predicted future increases in depressive symptoms and onset of clinically significant major depression for…

A Developmental Test of Mertonian Anomie Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menard, Scott

1995-01-01

Carefully reviewed Merton's writings on anomie theory to construct a more complete and rigorous test of the theory for respondents in early, middle, and late adolescence. Concluded that misspecified models of strain theory have underestimated the predictive power of strain theory in general and of anomie theory in particular. (JBJ)

Explaining the Sex Difference in Dyslexia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnett, Anne B.; Pennington, Bruce F.; Peterson, Robin L.; Willcutt, Erik G.; DeFries, John C.; Olson, Richard K.

2017-01-01

Background: Males are diagnosed with dyslexia more frequently than females, even in epidemiological samples. This may be explained by greater variance in males' reading performance. Methods: We expand on previous research by rigorously testing the variance difference theory, and testing for mediation of the sex difference by cognitive correlates.…

Testing Adaptive Toolbox Models: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jorg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox…

Tensile Properties of Dyneema SK76 Single Fibers at Multiple Loading Rates Using a Direct Gripping Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

lower density compared with aramid fibers such as Kevlar and Twaron. Numerical modeling is used to design more effective fiber-based composite armor...in measuring fibers and doing experiments. vi INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK. 1 1. Introduction Aramid fibers such as Kevlar (DuPont) and Twaron...methyl methacrylate blocks. The efficacy of this method to grip Kevlar fibers has been rigorously studied using a variety of statistical methods at

A Rigorous Statistical Approach to Determine Solar Wind Composition from ACE/SWICS Data, and New Ne/O Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shearer, P.; Jawed, M. K.; Raines, J. M.; Lepri, S. T.; Gilbert, J. A.; von Steiger, R.; Zurbuchen, T.

2013-12-01

The SWICS instruments aboard ACE and Ulysses have performed in situ measurements of individual solar wind ions for a period spanning over two decades. Solar wind composition is determined by accumulating the measurements into an ion count histogram in which each species appears as a distinct peak. Assigning counts to the appropriate species is a challenging statistical problem because of the limited counts for some species and overlap between some peaks. We show that the most commonly used count assignment methods can suffer from significant bias when a highly abundant species overlaps with a much less abundant one. For ACE/SWICS data, this bias results in an overestimated Ne/O ratio. Bias is greatly reduced by switching to a rigorous maximum likelihood count assignment method, resulting in a 30-50% reduction in the estimated Ne abundance. We will discuss the new Ne/O values and put them in context with the solar system abundances for Ne derived from other techniques, such as in situ collection from Genesis and its heritage instrument, the Solar Foil experiment during the Apollo era. The new count assignment method is currently being applied to reanalyze the archived ACE and Ulysses data and obtain revised abundances of C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, and Fe, leading to revised datasets that will be made publicly available.

A Statistical Comparative Planetology Approach to the Hunt for Habitable Exoplanets and Life Beyond the Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, Jacob L.; Abbot, Dorian S.; Kempton, Eliza M.-R.

2017-06-01

The search for habitable exoplanets and life beyond the solar system is one of the most compelling scientific opportunities of our time. Nevertheless, the high cost of building facilities that can address this topic and the keen public interest in the results of such research requires rigorous development of experiments that can deliver a definitive advancement in our understanding. Most work to date in this area has focused on a “systems science” approach of obtaining and interpreting comprehensive data for individual planets to make statements about their habitability and the possibility that they harbor life. This strategy is challenging because of the diversity of exoplanets, both observed and expected, and the limited information that can be obtained with astronomical instruments. Here, we propose a complementary approach that is based on performing surveys of key planetary characteristics and using statistical marginalization to answer broader questions than can be addressed with a small sample of objects. The fundamental principle of this comparative planetology approach is maximizing what can be learned from each type of measurement by applying it widely rather than requiring that multiple kinds of observations be brought to bear on a single object. As a proof of concept, we outline a survey of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheric water and carbon dioxide abundances that would test the habitable zone hypothesis and lead to a deeper understanding of the frequency of habitable planets. We also discuss ideas for additional surveys that could be developed to test other foundational hypotheses in this area.

A Statistical Comparative Planetology Approach to the Hunt for Habitable Exoplanets and Life Beyond the Solar Syste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbot, D. S.; Bean, J. L.; Kempton, E.

2017-12-01

The search for habitable exoplanets and life beyond the solar system is one of the most compelling scientific opportunities of our time. Nevertheless, the high cost of building facilities that can address this topic and the keen public interest in the results of such research requires rigorous development of experiments that can deliver a definitive advancement in our understanding. Most work to date in this area has focused on a "systems science" approach of obtaining and interpreting comprehensive data for individual planets to make statements about their habitability and the possibility that they harbor life. This strategy is challenging because of the diversity of exoplanets, both observed and expected, and the limited information that can be obtained with astronomical instruments. Here, we propose a complementary approach that is based on performing surveys of key planetary characteristics and using statistical marginalization to answer broader questions than can be addressed with a small sample of objects. The fundamental principle of this comparative planetology approach is maximizing what can be learned from each type of measurement by applying it widely rather than requiring that multiple kinds of observations be brought to bear on a single object. As a proof of concept, we outline a survey of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheric water and carbon dioxide abundances that would test the habitable zone hypothesis and lead to a deeper understanding of the frequency of habitable planets. We also discuss ideas for additional surveys that could be developed to test other foundational hypotheses is this area.

Does chess instruction improve mathematical problem-solving ability? Two experimental studies with an active control group.

PubMed

Sala, Giovanni; Gobet, Fernand

2017-12-01

It has been proposed that playing chess enables children to improve their ability in mathematics. These claims have been recently evaluated in a meta-analysis (Sala & Gobet, 2016, Educational Research Review, 18, 46-57), which indicated a significant effect in favor of the groups playing chess. However, the meta-analysis also showed that most of the reviewed studies used a poor experimental design (in particular, they lacked an active control group). We ran two experiments that used a three-group design including both an active and a passive control group, with a focus on mathematical ability. In the first experiment (N = 233), a group of third and fourth graders was taught chess for 25 hours and tested on mathematical problem-solving tasks. Participants also filled in a questionnaire assessing their meta-cognitive ability for mathematics problems. The group playing chess was compared to an active control group (playing checkers) and a passive control group. The three groups showed no statistically significant difference in mathematical problem-solving or metacognitive abilities in the posttest. The second experiment (N = 52) broadly used the same design, but the Oriental game of Go replaced checkers in the active control group. While the chess-treated group and the passive control group slightly outperformed the active control group with mathematical problem solving, the differences were not statistically significant. No differences were found with respect to metacognitive ability. These results suggest that the effects (if any) of chess instruction, when rigorously tested, are modest and that such interventions should not replace the traditional curriculum in mathematics.

How certain is desiccation in west African Sahel rainfall (1930-1990)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chappell, Adrian; Agnew, Clive T.

2008-04-01

Hypotheses for the late 1960s to 1990 period of desiccation (secular decrease in rainfall) in the west African Sahel (WAS) are typically tested by comparing empirical evidence or model predictions against "observations" of Sahelian rainfall. The outcomes of those comparisons can have considerable influence on the understanding of regional and global environmental systems. Inverse-distance squared area-weighted (IDW) estimates of WAS rainfall observations are commonly aggregated over space to provide temporal patterns without uncertainty. Spatial uncertainty of WAS rainfall was determined using the median approximation sequential indicator simulation. Every year (1930-1990) 300 equally probable realizations of annual summer rainfall were produced to honor station observations, match percentiles of the observed cumulative distributions and indicator variograms and perform adequately during cross validation. More than 49% of the IDW mean annual rainfall fell outside the 5th and 95th percentiles for annual rainfall realization means. The IDW means represented an extreme realization. Uncertainty in desiccation was determined by repeatedly (100,000) sampling the annual distribution of rainfall realization means and by applying Mann-Kendall nonparametric slope detection and significance testing. All of the negative gradients for the entire period were statistically significant. None of the negative gradients for the expected desiccation period were statistically significant. The results support the presence of a long-term decline in annual rainfall but demonstrate that short-term desiccation (1965-1990) cannot be detected. Estimates of uncertainty for precipitation and other climate variables in this or other regions, or across the globe, are essential for the rigorous detection of spatial patterns and time series trends.

In situ antimicrobial behavior of materials with copper-based additives in a hospital environment.

PubMed

Palza, Humberto; Nuñez, Mauricio; Bastías, Roberto; Delgado, Katherine

2018-06-01

Copper and its alloys are effective antimicrobial surface materials in the laboratory and in clinical trials. Copper has been used in the healthcare setting to reduce environmental contamination, and thus prevent healthcare-associated infections, complementing traditional protocols. The addition of copper nanoparticles to polymer/plastic matrices can also produce antimicrobial materials, as confirmed under laboratory conditions. However, there is a lack of studies validating the antimicrobial effects of these nanocomposite materials in clinical trials. To satisfy this issue, plastic waiting room chairs with embedded metal copper nanoparticles, and metal hospital IV pools coated with an organic paint with nanostructured zeolite/copper particles were produced and tested in a hospital environment. These prototypes were sampled once weekly for 10 weeks and the viable microorganisms were analysed and compared with the copper-free materials. In the waiting rooms, chairs with copper reduced by around 73% the total viable microorganisms present, showing activity regardless of the microorganism tested. Although there were only low levels of microorganisms in the IV pools installed in operating rooms because of rigorous hygiene protocols, samples with copper presented lower total viable microorganisms than unfilled materials. Some results did not have statistical significance because of the low load of microorganisms; however, during at least three weeks the IV pools with copper had reduced levels of microorganisms by a statistically significant 50%. These findings show for the first time the feasibility of utilizing the antimicrobial property of copper by adding nanosized fillers to other materials in a hospital environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. and International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, L.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Adhikari, S.; Nilsson, J.; Blewitt, G.

2018-03-01

We provide a new analysis of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) with the goal of assembling the model uncertainty statistics required for rigorously extracting trends in surface mass from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Such statistics are essential for deciphering sea level, ocean mass, and hydrological changes because the latter signals can be relatively small (≤2 mm/yr water height equivalent) over very large regions, such as major ocean basins and watersheds. With abundant new >7 year continuous measurements of vertical land motion (VLM) reported by Global Positioning System stations on bedrock and new relative sea level records, our new statistical evaluation of GIA uncertainties incorporates Bayesian methodologies. A unique aspect of the method is that both the ice history and 1-D Earth structure vary through a total of 128,000 forward models. We find that best fit models poorly capture the statistical inferences needed to correctly invert for lower mantle viscosity and that GIA uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty ascribed to trends from 14 years of GRACE data in polar regions.

Output statistics of laser anemometers in sparsely seeded flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, R. V.; Jensen, A. S.

1982-01-01

It is noted that until very recently, research on this topic concentrated on the particle arrival statistics and the influence of the optical parameters on them. Little attention has been paid to the influence of subsequent processing on the measurement statistics. There is also controversy over whether the effects of the particle statistics can be measured. It is shown here that some of the confusion derives from a lack of understanding of the experimental parameters that are to be controlled or known. A rigorous framework is presented for examining the measurement statistics of such systems. To provide examples, two problems are then addressed. The first has to do with a sample and hold processor, the second with what is called a saturable processor. The sample and hold processor converts the output to a continuous signal by holding the last reading until a new one is obtained. The saturable system is one where the maximum processable rate is arrived at by the dead time of some unit in the system. At high particle rates, the processed rate is determined through the dead time.

Estimation of integral curves from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data.

PubMed

Carmichael, Owen; Sakhanenko, Lyudmila

2015-05-15

We develop statistical methodology for a popular brain imaging technique HARDI based on the high order tensor model by Özarslan and Mareci [10]. We investigate how uncertainty in the imaging procedure propagates through all levels of the model: signals, tensor fields, vector fields, and fibers. We construct asymptotically normal estimators of the integral curves or fibers which allow us to trace the fibers together with confidence ellipsoids. The procedure is computationally intense as it blends linear algebra concepts from high order tensors with asymptotical statistical analysis. The theoretical results are illustrated on simulated and real datasets. This work generalizes the statistical methodology proposed for low angular resolution diffusion tensor imaging by Carmichael and Sakhanenko [3], to several fibers per voxel. It is also a pioneering statistical work on tractography from HARDI data. It avoids all the typical limitations of the deterministic tractography methods and it delivers the same information as probabilistic tractography methods. Our method is computationally cheap and it provides well-founded mathematical and statistical framework where diverse functionals on fibers, directions and tensors can be studied in a systematic and rigorous way.

Estimation of integral curves from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data

PubMed Central

Carmichael, Owen; Sakhanenko, Lyudmila

2015-01-01

We develop statistical methodology for a popular brain imaging technique HARDI based on the high order tensor model by Özarslan and Mareci [10]. We investigate how uncertainty in the imaging procedure propagates through all levels of the model: signals, tensor fields, vector fields, and fibers. We construct asymptotically normal estimators of the integral curves or fibers which allow us to trace the fibers together with confidence ellipsoids. The procedure is computationally intense as it blends linear algebra concepts from high order tensors with asymptotical statistical analysis. The theoretical results are illustrated on simulated and real datasets. This work generalizes the statistical methodology proposed for low angular resolution diffusion tensor imaging by Carmichael and Sakhanenko [3], to several fibers per voxel. It is also a pioneering statistical work on tractography from HARDI data. It avoids all the typical limitations of the deterministic tractography methods and it delivers the same information as probabilistic tractography methods. Our method is computationally cheap and it provides well-founded mathematical and statistical framework where diverse functionals on fibers, directions and tensors can be studied in a systematic and rigorous way. PMID:25937674

Are Boys Discriminated in Swedish High Schools?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinnerich, Bjorn Tyrefors; Hoglin, Erik; Johannesson, Magnus

2011-01-01

Girls typically have higher grades than boys in school and recent research suggests that part of this gender difference may be due to discrimination of boys in grading. We rigorously test this in a field experiment where a random sample of the same tests in the Swedish language is subject to blind and non-blind grading. The non-blind test score is…

Discrimination against Students with Foreign Backgrounds: Evidence from Grading in Swedish Public High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinnerich, Bjorn Tyrefors; Höglin, Erik; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-01-01

We rigorously test for discrimination against students with foreign backgrounds in high school grading in Sweden. We analyse a random sample of national tests in the Swedish language graded both non-blindly by the student's own teacher and blindly without any identifying information. The increase in the test score due to non-blind grading is…

Topological Isomorphisms of Human Brain and Financial Market Networks

PubMed Central

Vértes, Petra E.; Nicol, Ruth M.; Chapman, Sandra C.; Watkins, Nicholas W.; Robertson, Duncan A.; Bullmore, Edward T.

2011-01-01

Although metaphorical and conceptual connections between the human brain and the financial markets have often been drawn, rigorous physical or mathematical underpinnings of this analogy remain largely unexplored. Here, we apply a statistical and graph theoretic approach to the study of two datasets – the time series of 90 stocks from the New York stock exchange over a 3-year period, and the fMRI-derived time series acquired from 90 brain regions over the course of a 10-min-long functional MRI scan of resting brain function in healthy volunteers. Despite the many obvious substantive differences between these two datasets, graphical analysis demonstrated striking commonalities in terms of global network topological properties. Both the human brain and the market networks were non-random, small-world, modular, hierarchical systems with fat-tailed degree distributions indicating the presence of highly connected hubs. These properties could not be trivially explained by the univariate time series statistics of stock price returns. This degree of topological isomorphism suggests that brains and markets can be regarded broadly as members of the same family of networks. The two systems, however, were not topologically identical. The financial market was more efficient and more modular – more highly optimized for information processing – than the brain networks; but also less robust to systemic disintegration as a result of hub deletion. We conclude that the conceptual connections between brains and markets are not merely metaphorical; rather these two information processing systems can be rigorously compared in the same mathematical language and turn out often to share important topological properties in common to some degree. There will be interesting scientific arbitrage opportunities in further work at the graph-theoretically mediated interface between systems neuroscience and the statistical physics of financial markets. PMID:22007161

Cardiovascular program to improve physical fitness in those over 60 years old – pilot study

PubMed Central

Castillo-Rodríguez, Alfonso; Chinchilla-Minguet, José Luis

2014-01-01

Background In Spain, more than 50% of 60-year-olds are obese. Obesity is a disease with serious cardiovascular risks. The mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in Spain is 31.1%. Objectives To improve aerobic fitness, strength, flexibility and balance, and body composition (BC) in persons over 60 years old. Materials and methods A clinical intervention study of 24 participants was carried out over a period of 3 months. Aerobic fitness was assessed using the Rockport 1-Mile Walk Test. Upper-body strength was evaluated with an ad hoc test. Flexibility and balance were evaluated using the Sit and Reach Test and the Stork Balance Stand Test, respectively. Anthropometric measurements were taken by bioelectrical impedance. Results After 3 months of training, aerobic fitness was improved, as demonstrated by improved test times (pretest 13.04 minutes, posttest 12.13 minutes; P<0.05). Body composition was also improved, but the results were not statistically significant (fat mass pretest 31.58%±5.65%, posttest 30.65%±6.31%; skeletal muscle mass pretest 43.99±9.53 kg, posttest 46.63±10.90 kg). Conclusion Our data show that in subjects over 60 years old, aerobic fitness was improved due to program intervention. However, these results should be treated with caution, because of the limited sample size and the brief time period of this pilot study. A more rigorous study would include a sample of at least 100 participants. PMID:25143714

A boundary-optimized rejection region test for the two-sample binomial problem.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Nason, Martha; Fay, Michael P; Follmann, Dean A

2018-03-30

Testing the equality of 2 proportions for a control group versus a treatment group is a well-researched statistical problem. In some settings, there may be strong historical data that allow one to reliably expect that the control proportion is one, or nearly so. While one-sample tests or comparisons to historical controls could be used, neither can rigorously control the type I error rate in the event the true control rate changes. In this work, we propose an unconditional exact test that exploits the historical information while controlling the type I error rate. We sequentially construct a rejection region by first maximizing the rejection region in the space where all controls have an event, subject to the constraint that our type I error rate does not exceed α for any true event rate; then with any remaining α we maximize the additional rejection region in the space where one control avoids the event, and so on. When the true control event rate is one, our test is the most powerful nonrandomized test for all points in the alternative space. When the true control event rate is nearly one, we demonstrate that our test has equal or higher mean power, averaging over the alternative space, than a variety of well-known tests. For the comparison of 4 controls and 4 treated subjects, our proposed test has higher power than all comparator tests. We demonstrate the properties of our proposed test by simulation and use our method to design a malaria vaccine trial. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazola, L.; Fernandes, C.; Pizzinga, A.; Riera, R.

2008-02-01

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S. market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points: (i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning the time of the financial crash has been improved.

Statistical methods for thermonuclear reaction rates and nucleosynthesis simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iliadis, Christian; Longland, Richard; Coc, Alain; Timmes, F. X.; Champagne, Art E.

2015-03-01

Rigorous statistical methods for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates and nucleosynthesis are becoming increasingly established in nuclear astrophysics. The main challenge being faced is that experimental reaction rates are highly complex quantities derived from a multitude of different measured nuclear parameters (e.g., astrophysical S-factors, resonance energies and strengths, particle and γ-ray partial widths). We discuss the application of the Monte Carlo method to two distinct, but related, questions. First, given a set of measured nuclear parameters, how can one best estimate the resulting thermonuclear reaction rates and associated uncertainties? Second, given a set of appropriate reaction rates, how can one best estimate the abundances from nucleosynthesis (i.e., reaction network) calculations? The techniques described here provide probability density functions that can be used to derive statistically meaningful reaction rates and final abundances for any desired coverage probability. Examples are given for applications to s-process neutron sources, core-collapse supernovae, classical novae, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the 2016 Central Italy earthquakes sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Romashkova, Leontina; Panza, Giuliano F.

2017-04-01

Predicting earthquakes and related ground shaking is widely recognized among the most challenging scientific problems, both for societal relevance and intrinsic complexity of the problem. The development of reliable forecasting tools requires their rigorous formalization and testing, first in retrospect, and then in an experimental real-time mode, which imply a careful application of statistics to data sets of limited size and different accuracy. Accordingly, the operational issues of prospective validation and use of time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios are discussed, reviewing the results in their application in Italy and surroundings. Long-term practice and results obtained for the Italian territory in about two decades of rigorous prospective testing, support the feasibility of earthquake forecasting based on the analysis of seismicity patterns at the intermediate-term middle-range scale. Italy is the only country worldwide where two independent, globally tested, algorithms are simultaneously applied, namely CN and M8S, which permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic precursors to allow for a diagnosis of the intervals of time when a strong event is likely to occur inside a given region. Based on routinely updated space-time information provided by CN and M8S forecasts, an integrated procedure has been developed that allows for the definition of time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios, through the realistic modeling of ground motion by the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). This scenario-based methodology permits to construct, both at regional and local scale, scenarios of ground motion for the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted areas. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The issues and results from real-time testing of the integrated NDSHA scenarios are illustrated, with special emphasis on the sequence of destructive earthquakes that struck Central Italy starting on August 2016. The results obtained so far evidence the validity of the proposed methodology in anticipating ground shaking from approaching strong earthquakes and prove that the information provided by time-dependent NDSHA can be useful in assigning priorities for timely and effective mitigation actions.

All That Glitters: A Glimpse into the Future of Cancer Screening

Cancer.gov

Developing new screening approaches and rigorously establishing their validity is challenging. Researchers are actively searching for new screening tests that improve the benefits of screening while limiting the harms.

Identifying incompatible combinations of concrete materials: volume II, test protocol.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-08-01

Unexpected interactions between otherwise acceptable ingredients in portland cement : concrete are becoming increasingly common as cementitious systems become more complex : and demands on the systems are more rigorous. Examples of incompatibilities ...

B-ALL minimal residual disease flow cytometry: an application of a novel method for optimization of a single-tube model.

PubMed

Shaver, Aaron C; Greig, Bruce W; Mosse, Claudio A; Seegmiller, Adam C

2015-05-01

Optimizing a clinical flow cytometry panel can be a subjective process dependent on experience. We develop a quantitative method to make this process more rigorous and apply it to B lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma (B-ALL) minimal residual disease (MRD) testing. We retrospectively analyzed our existing three-tube, seven-color B-ALL MRD panel and used our novel method to develop an optimized one-tube, eight-color panel, which was tested prospectively. The optimized one-tube, eight-color panel resulted in greater efficiency of time and resources with no loss in diagnostic power. Constructing a flow cytometry panel using a rigorous, objective, quantitative method permits optimization and avoids problems of interdependence and redundancy in a large, multiantigen panel. Copyright© by the American Society for Clinical Pathology.

The MINERVA Software Development Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narkawicz, Anthony; Munoz, Cesar A.; Dutle, Aaron M.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a software development process for safety-critical software components of cyber-physical systems. The process is called MINERVA, which stands for Mirrored Implementation Numerically Evaluated against Rigorously Verified Algorithms. The process relies on formal methods for rigorously validating code against its requirements. The software development process uses: (1) a formal specification language for describing the algorithms and their functional requirements, (2) an interactive theorem prover for formally verifying the correctness of the algorithms, (3) test cases that stress the code, and (4) numerical evaluation on these test cases of both the algorithm specifications and their implementations in code. The MINERVA process is illustrated in this paper with an application to geo-containment algorithms for unmanned aircraft systems. These algorithms ensure that the position of an aircraft never leaves a predetermined polygon region and provide recovery maneuvers when the region is inadvertently exited.

Positive Selection in CD8+ T-Cell Epitopes of Influenza Virus Nucleoprotein Revealed by a Comparative Analysis of Human and Swine Viral Lineages

PubMed Central

Machkovech, Heather M.; Bedford, Trevor; Suchard, Marc A.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Numerous experimental studies have demonstrated that CD8+ T cells contribute to immunity against influenza by limiting viral replication. It is therefore surprising that rigorous statistical tests have failed to find evidence of positive selection in the epitopes targeted by CD8+ T cells. Here we use a novel computational approach to test for selection in CD8+ T-cell epitopes. We define all epitopes in the nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix protein (M1) with experimentally identified human CD8+ T-cell responses and then compare the evolution of these epitopes in parallel lineages of human and swine influenza viruses that have been diverging since roughly 1918. We find a significant enrichment of substitutions that alter human CD8+ T-cell epitopes in NP of human versus swine influenza virus, consistent with the idea that these epitopes are under positive selection. Furthermore, we show that epitope-altering substitutions in human influenza virus NP are enriched on the trunk versus the branches of the phylogenetic tree, indicating that viruses that acquire these mutations have a selective advantage. However, even in human influenza virus NP, sites in T-cell epitopes evolve more slowly than do nonepitope sites, presumably because these epitopes are under stronger inherent functional constraint. Overall, our work demonstrates that there is clear selection from CD8+ T cells in human influenza virus NP and illustrates how comparative analyses of viral lineages from different hosts can identify positive selection that is otherwise obscured by strong functional constraint. IMPORTANCE There is a strong interest in correlates of anti-influenza immunity that are protective against diverse virus strains. CD8+ T cells provide such broad immunity, since they target conserved viral proteins. An important question is whether T-cell immunity is sufficiently strong to drive influenza virus evolution. Although many studies have shown that T cells limit viral replication in animal models and are associated with decreased symptoms in humans, no studies have proven with statistical significance that influenza virus evolves under positive selection to escape T cells. Here we use comparisons of human and swine influenza viruses to rigorously demonstrate that human influenza virus evolves under pressure to fix mutations in the nucleoprotein that promote escape from T cells. We further show that viruses with these mutations have a selective advantage since they are preferentially located on the “trunk” of the phylogenetic tree. Overall, our results show that CD8+ T cells targeting nucleoprotein play an important role in shaping influenza virus evolution. PMID:26311880

Distinguishing cause from correlation in tokamak experiments to trigger edge-localised plasma instabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webster, Anthony J.; CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB

2014-11-15

The generic question is considered: How can we determine the probability of an otherwise quasi-random event, having been triggered by an external influence? A specific problem is the quantification of the success of techniques to trigger, and hence control, edge-localised plasma instabilities (ELMs) in magnetically confined fusion (MCF) experiments. The development of such techniques is essential to ensure tolerable heat loads on components in large MCF fusion devices, and is necessary for their development into economically successful power plants. Bayesian probability theory is used to rigorously formulate the problem and to provide a formal solution. Accurate but pragmatic methods aremore » developed to estimate triggering probabilities, and are illustrated with experimental data. These allow results from experiments to be quantitatively assessed, and rigorously quantified conclusions to be formed. Example applications include assessing whether triggering of ELMs is a statistical or deterministic process, and the establishment of thresholds to ensure that ELMs are reliably triggered.« less

Probability bounds analysis for nonlinear population ecology models.

PubMed

Enszer, Joshua A; Andrei Măceș, D; Stadtherr, Mark A

2015-09-01

Mathematical models in population ecology often involve parameters that are empirically determined and inherently uncertain, with probability distributions for the uncertainties not known precisely. Propagating such imprecise uncertainties rigorously through a model to determine their effect on model outputs can be a challenging problem. We illustrate here a method for the direct propagation of uncertainties represented by probability bounds though nonlinear, continuous-time, dynamic models in population ecology. This makes it possible to determine rigorous bounds on the probability that some specified outcome for a population is achieved, which can be a core problem in ecosystem modeling for risk assessment and management. Results can be obtained at a computational cost that is considerably less than that required by statistical sampling methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The method is demonstrated using three example systems, with focus on a model of an experimental aquatic food web subject to the effects of contamination by ionic liquids, a new class of potentially important industrial chemicals. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Robust source and mask optimization compensating for mask topography effects in computational lithography.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Lam, Edmund Y

2014-04-21

Mask topography effects need to be taken into consideration for a more accurate solution of source mask optimization (SMO) in advanced optical lithography. However, rigorous 3D mask models generally involve intensive computation and conventional SMO fails to manipulate the mask-induced undesired phase errors that degrade the usable depth of focus (uDOF) and process yield. In this work, an optimization approach incorporating pupil wavefront aberrations into SMO procedure is developed as an alternative to maximize the uDOF. We first design the pupil wavefront function by adding primary and secondary spherical aberrations through the coefficients of the Zernike polynomials, and then apply the conjugate gradient method to achieve an optimal source-mask pair under the condition of aberrated pupil. We also use a statistical model to determine the Zernike coefficients for the phase control and adjustment. Rigorous simulations of thick masks show that this approach provides compensation for mask topography effects by improving the pattern fidelity and increasing uDOF.

Illustrating idiographic methods for translation research: moderation effects, natural clinical experiments, and complex treatment-by-subgroup interactions.

PubMed

Ridenour, Ty A; Wittenborn, Andrea K; Raiff, Bethany R; Benedict, Neal; Kane-Gill, Sandra

2016-03-01

A critical juncture in translation research involves the preliminary studies of intervention tools, provider training programs, policies, and other mechanisms used to leverage knowledge garnered at one translation stage into another stage. Potentially useful for such studies are rigorous techniques for conducting within-subject clinical trials, which have advanced incrementally over the last decade. However, these methods have largely not been utilized within prevention or translation contexts. The purpose of this manuscript is to demonstrate the flexibility, wide applicability, and rigor of idiographic clinical trials for preliminary testing of intervention mechanisms. Specifically demonstrated are novel uses of state-space modeling for testing intervention mechanisms of short-term outcomes, identifying heterogeneity in and moderation of within-person treatment mechanisms, a horizontal line plot to refine sampling design during the course of a clinic-based experimental study, and the need to test a treatment's efficacy as treatment is administered along with (e.g., traditional 12-month outcomes).

ASTM Committee C28: International Standards for Properties and Performance of Advanced Ceramics, Three Decades of High-quality, Technically-rigorous Normalization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenkins, Michael G.; Salem, Jonathan A.

2016-01-01

Physical and mechanical properties and performance of advanced ceramics and glasses are difficult to measure correctly without the proper techniques. For over three decades, ASTM Committee C28 on Advanced Ceramics, has developed high quality, rigorous, full-consensus standards (e.g., test methods, practices, guides, terminology) to measure properties and performance of monolithic and composite ceramics that may be applied to glasses in some cases. These standards testing particulars for many mechanical, physical, thermal, properties and performance of these materials. As a result these standards provide accurate, reliable, repeatable and complete data. Within Committee C28 users, producers, researchers, designers, academicians, etc. have written, continually updated, and validated through round-robin test programs, nearly 50 standards since the Committees founding in 1986. This paper provides a retrospective review of the 30 years of ASTM Committee C28 including a graphical pictogram listing of C28 standards along with examples of the tangible benefits of advanced ceramics standards to demonstrate their practical applications.

Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Máté, Gabriell; Heermann, Dieter

2014-04-01

As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.

External model validation of binary clinical risk prediction models in cardiovascular and thoracic surgery.

PubMed

Hickey, Graeme L; Blackstone, Eugene H

2016-08-01

Clinical risk-prediction models serve an important role in healthcare. They are used for clinical decision-making and measuring the performance of healthcare providers. To establish confidence in a model, external model validation is imperative. When designing such an external model validation study, thought must be given to patient selection, risk factor and outcome definitions, missing data, and the transparent reporting of the analysis. In addition, there are a number of statistical methods available for external model validation. Execution of a rigorous external validation study rests in proper study design, application of suitable statistical methods, and transparent reporting. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Memory Hazard Functions: A Vehicle for Theory Development and Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chechile, Richard A.

2006-01-01

A framework is developed to rigorously test an entire class of memory retention functions by examining hazard properties. Evidence is provided that the memory hazard function is not monotonically decreasing. Yet most of the proposals for retention functions, which have emerged from the psychological literature, imply that memory hazard is…

78 FR 31941 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-28

... burden 810 RISE Staff Pre-Test 157 1 .25 39 RISE Staff Post-Test 157 1 .25 39 RISE burden 78 Estimated... addition, evaluation plans were developed to support rigorous site-specific and cross-site studies to... and Lesbian Center's Recognize Intervene Support Empower (RISE) project. A third phase of the study...

Louis Guttman's Contributions to Classical Test Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmerman, Donald W.; Williams, Richard H.; Zumbo, Bruno D.; Ross, Donald

2005-01-01

This article focuses on Louis Guttman's contributions to the classical theory of educational and psychological tests, one of the lesser known of his many contributions to quantitative methods in the social sciences. Guttman's work in this field provided a rigorous mathematical basis for ideas that, for many decades after Spearman's initial work,…

Standardized Test Results: KEEP and Control Students. 1975-1976, Technical Report #69.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Antill, Ellen; Speidel, Gisela E.

This report presents the results of various standardized measures administered to Kamehameha Early Education Program (KEEP) students and control students in the school year 1975-1976. In contrast to previous comparisons, KEEP employed more rigorous procedures for the selection of the control students and for the conditions of test administration.…

Standards, Assessments & Opting Out, Spring 2015

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Advance Illinois, 2015

2015-01-01

In the spring, Illinois students will take new state assessments that reflect the rigor and relevance of the new Illinois Learning Standards. But some classmates will sit out and join the pushback against standardized testing. Opt-out advocates raise concerns about over-testing, and the resulting toll on students as well as the impact on classroom…

LEAD LEACHING FROM IN-LINE BRASS DEVICES: A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE EXISTING STANDARD

EPA Science Inventory

The ANSI/NSF 61, Section 8 standard is intended to protect the public from in-line brass plumbing products that might leach excessive levels of lead to potable water. Experiments were conducted to examine the practical rigor of this test. Contrary to expectations, the test was no...

Latest Results From the QuakeFinder Statistical Analysis Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappler, K. N.; MacLean, L. S.; Schneider, D.; Bleier, T.

2017-12-01

Since 2005 QuakeFinder (QF) has acquired an unique dataset with outstanding spatial and temporal sampling of earth's magnetic field along several active fault systems. This QF network consists of 124 stations in California and 45 stations along fault zones in Greece, Taiwan, Peru, Chile and Indonesia. Each station is equipped with three feedback induction magnetometers, two ion sensors, a 4 Hz geophone, a temperature sensor, and a humidity sensor. Data are continuously recorded at 50 Hz with GPS timing and transmitted daily to the QF data center in California for analysis. QF is attempting to detect and characterize anomalous EM activity occurring ahead of earthquakes. There have been many reports of anomalous variations in the earth's magnetic field preceding earthquakes. Specifically, several authors have drawn attention to apparent anomalous pulsations seen preceding earthquakes. Often studies in long term monitoring of seismic activity are limited by availability of event data. It is particularly difficult to acquire a large dataset for rigorous statistical analyses of the magnetic field near earthquake epicenters because large events are relatively rare. Since QF has acquired hundreds of earthquakes in more than 70 TB of data, we developed an automated approach for finding statistical significance of precursory behavior and developed an algorithm framework. Previously QF reported on the development of an Algorithmic Framework for data processing and hypothesis testing. The particular instance of algorithm we discuss identifies and counts magnetic variations from time series data and ranks each station-day according to the aggregate number of pulses in a time window preceding the day in question. If the hypothesis is true that magnetic field activity increases over some time interval preceding earthquakes, this should reveal itself by the station-days on which earthquakes occur receiving higher ranks than they would if the ranking scheme were random. This can be analysed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic test. In this presentation we give a status report of our latest results, largely focussed on reproducibility of results, robust statistics in the presence of missing data, and exploring optimization landscapes in our parameter space.

Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: balancing methodological rigor and research ethics.

PubMed

Underhill, Kristen

2013-10-01

The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions - such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines - has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of "risk homeostasis," which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: Balancing methodological rigor and research ethics

PubMed Central

Underhill, Kristen

2014-01-01

The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions – such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines – has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of “risk homeostasis,” which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. PMID:23597916

A Multiphase Validation of Atlas-Based Automatic and Semiautomatic Segmentation Strategies for Prostate MRI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, Spencer; Rodrigues, George, E-mail: george.rodrigues@lhsc.on.ca; Department of Epidemiology/Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London

2013-01-01

Purpose: To perform a rigorous technological assessment and statistical validation of a software technology for anatomic delineations of the prostate on MRI datasets. Methods and Materials: A 3-phase validation strategy was used. Phase I consisted of anatomic atlas building using 100 prostate cancer MRI data sets to provide training data sets for the segmentation algorithms. In phase II, 2 experts contoured 15 new MRI prostate cancer cases using 3 approaches (manual, N points, and region of interest). In phase III, 5 new physicians with variable MRI prostate contouring experience segmented the same 15 phase II datasets using 3 approaches: manual,more » N points with no editing, and full autosegmentation with user editing allowed. Statistical analyses for time and accuracy (using Dice similarity coefficient) endpoints used traditional descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, analysis of covariance, and pooled Student t test. Results: In phase I, average (SD) total and per slice contouring time for the 2 physicians was 228 (75), 17 (3.5), 209 (65), and 15 seconds (3.9), respectively. In phase II, statistically significant differences in physician contouring time were observed based on physician, type of contouring, and case sequence. The N points strategy resulted in superior segmentation accuracy when initial autosegmented contours were compared with final contours. In phase III, statistically significant differences in contouring time were observed based on physician, type of contouring, and case sequence again. The average relative timesaving for N points and autosegmentation were 49% and 27%, respectively, compared with manual contouring. The N points and autosegmentation strategies resulted in average Dice values of 0.89 and 0.88, respectively. Pre- and postedited autosegmented contours demonstrated a higher average Dice similarity coefficient of 0.94. Conclusion: The software provided robust contours with minimal editing required. Observed time savings were seen for all physicians irrespective of experience level and baseline manual contouring speed.« less

Escape rates over potential barriers: variational principles and the Hamilton-Jacobi equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortés, Emilio; Espinosa, Francisco

We describe a rigorous formalism to study some extrema statistics problems, like maximum probability events or escape rate processes, by taking into account that the Hamilton-Jacobi equation completes, in a natural way, the required set of boundary conditions of the Euler-Lagrange equation, for this kind of variational problem. We apply this approach to a one-dimensional stochastic process, driven by colored noise, for a double-parabola potential, where we have one stable and one unstable steady states.

Rapid Creation and Quantitative Monitoring of High Coverage shRNA Libraries

PubMed Central

Bassik, Michael C.; Lebbink, Robert Jan; Churchman, L. Stirling; Ingolia, Nicholas T.; Patena, Weronika; LeProust, Emily M.; Schuldiner, Maya; Weissman, Jonathan S.; McManus, Michael T.

2009-01-01

Short hairpin RNA (shRNA) libraries are limited by the low efficacy of many shRNAs, giving false negatives, and off-target effects, giving false positives. Here we present a strategy for rapidly creating expanded shRNA pools (∼30 shRNAs/gene) that are analyzed by deep-sequencing (EXPAND). This approach enables identification of multiple effective target-specific shRNAs from a complex pool, allowing a rigorous statistical evaluation of whether a gene is a true hit. PMID:19448642

Ray-optical theory of broadband partially coherent emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epstein, Ariel; Tessler, Nir; Einziger, Pinchas D.

2013-04-01

We present a rigorous formulation of the effects of spectral broadening on emission of partially coherent source ensembles embedded in multilayered formations with arbitrarily shaped interfaces, provided geometrical optics is valid. The resulting ray-optical theory, applicable to a variety of optical systems from terahertz lenses to photovoltaic cells, quantifies the fundamental interplay between bandwidth and layer dimensions, and sheds light on common practices in optical analysis of statistical fields, e.g., disregarding multiple reflections or neglecting interference cross terms.

A case-control study of malignant melanoma among Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory employees: A critical evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kupper, L.L.; Setzer, R.W.; Schwartzbaum, J.

1987-07-01

This document reports on a reevaluation of data obtained in a previous report on occupational factors associated with the development of malignant melanomas at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The current report reduces the number of these factors from five to three based on a rigorous statistical analysis of the original data. Recommendations include restructuring the original questionnaire and trying to contact more individuals that worked with volatile photographic chemicals. 17 refs., 7 figs., 22 tabs. (TEM)

Selection of nontarget arthropod taxa for field research on transgenic insecticidal crops: using empirical data and statistical power.

PubMed

Prasifka, J R; Hellmich, R L; Dively, G P; Higgins, L S; Dixon, P M; Duan, J J

2008-02-01

One of the possible adverse effects of transgenic insecticidal crops is the unintended decline in the abundance of nontarget arthropods. Field trials designed to evaluate potential nontarget effects can be more complex than expected because decisions to conduct field trials and the selection of taxa to include are not always guided by the results of laboratory tests. Also, recent studies emphasize the potential for indirect effects (adverse impacts to nontarget arthropods without feeding directly on plant tissues), which are difficult to predict because of interactions among nontarget arthropods, target pests, and transgenic crops. As a consequence, field studies may attempt to monitor expansive lists of arthropod taxa, making the design of such broad studies more difficult and reducing the likelihood of detecting any negative effects that might be present. To improve the taxonomic focus and statistical rigor of future studies, existing field data and corresponding power analysis may provide useful guidance. Analysis of control data from several nontarget field trials using repeated-measures designs suggests that while detection of small effects may require considerable increases in replication, there are taxa from different ecological roles that are sampled effectively using standard methods. The use of statistical power to guide selection of taxa for nontarget trials reflects scientists' inability to predict the complex interactions among arthropod taxa, particularly when laboratory trials fail to provide guidance on which groups are more likely to be affected. However, scientists still may exercise judgment, including taxa that are not included in or supported by power analyses.

Variability in structure of university pulmonary/critical care fellowships and retention of fellows in academic medicine.

PubMed

Nadig, Nandita R; Vanderbilt, Allison A; Ford, Dee W; Schnapp, Lynn M; Pastis, Nicholas J

2015-04-01

Individual fellowship programs are challenged to find a format of training that not only meets the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education requirements, but also grooms fellows to be trusted clinicians, and encourages them to enter academic careers. This study was undertaken as part of an internal effort to evaluate and revise the program structure of the pulmonary/critical care medicine fellowship at the Medical University of South Carolina. Our objectives were to characterize variation in the training structure and specifically research opportunities of university pulmonary/critical care medicine fellowship programs, and to identify factors associated with fellow retention in academic medicine and research. A 30-item survey was developed through rigorous internal review and was administered via email. Descriptive statistics, Cronbach's alpha, correlations, Wilcoxon sign-rank test, and ANOVA were carried out. We had a response rate of 52%. Program directors reported that, within the past 5 years, 38% of their fellows remained in academic medicine and 20% remained in academics with significant research focus. We found a statistically significant association between obtaining a master's degree and remaining in academics (r = 0.559; P < 0.008). The survey also revealed statistically significant relationships between scholarly requirements (grant proposals, peer-reviewed original research projects) and the percent of fellows who graduated and remained in academics. This survey offers some insights that may be useful to fellowship program directors. In particular, advanced education in research and maximizing scholarly activities might be associated with increased academic retention among fellowship trainees.

Validation and Improvement of SRTM Performance over Rugged Terrain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zebker, Howard A.

2004-01-01

We have previously reported work related to basic technique development in phase unwrapping and generation of digital elevation models (DEM). In the final year of this work we have applied our technique work to the improvement of DEM's produced by SRTM. In particular, we have developed a rigorous mathematical algorithm and means to fill in missing data over rough terrain from other data sets. We illustrate this method by using a higher resolution, but globally less accurate, DEM produced by the TOPSAR airborne instrument over the Galapagos Islands to augment the SRTM data set in this area, We combine this data set with SRTM to use each set to fill in holes left over by the other imaging system. The infilling is done by first interpolating each data set using a prediction error filter that reproduces the same statistical characterization as exhibited by the entire data set within the interpolated region. After this procedure is implemented on each data set, the two are combined on a point by point basis with weights that reflect the accuracy of each data point in its original image. In areas that are better covered by SRTM, TOPSAR data are weighted down but still retain TOPSAR statistics. The reverse is true for regions better covered by TOPSAR. The resulting DEM passes statistical tests and appears quite feasible to the eye, but as this DEM is the best available for the region we cannot fully veri@ its accuracy. Spot checks with GPS points show that locally the technique results in a more comprehensive and accurate map than either data set alone.

Hypnotherapy and Test Anxiety: Two Cognitive-Behavioral Constructs. The Effects of Hypnosis in Reducing Test Anxiety and Improving Academic Achievement in College Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sapp, Marty

A two-group randomized multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) was used to investigate the effects of cognitive-behavioral hypnosis in reducing test anxiety and improving academic performance in comparison to a Hawthorne control group. Subjects were enrolled in a rigorous introductory psychology course which covered an entire text in one…

Standardized Tests as Outcome Measures for Evaluating Instructional Interventions in Mathematics and Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, Joshua Michael

This three-paper dissertation explores problems with the use of standardized tests as outcome measures for the evaluation of instructional interventions in mathematics and science. Investigators commonly use students' scores on standardized tests to evaluate the impact of instructional programs designed to improve student achievement. However, evidence suggests that the standardized tests may not measure, or may not measure well, the student learning caused by the interventions. This problem is special case of a basic problem in applied measurement related to understanding whether a particular test provides accurate and useful information about the impact of an educational intervention. The three papers explore different aspects of the issue and highlight the potential benefits of (a) using particular research methods and of (b) implementing changes to educational policy that would strengthen efforts to reform instructional intervention in mathematics and science. The first paper investigates measurement problems related to the use of standardized tests in applied educational research. Analysis of the research projects funded by the Institute of Education Sciences (IES) Mathematics and Science Education Program permitted me to address three main research questions. One, how often are standardized tests used to evaluate new educational interventions? Two, do the tests appear to measure the same thing that the intervention teaches? Three, do investigators establish validity evidence for the specific uses of the test? The research documents potential problems and actual problems related to the use of standardized tests in leading applied research, and suggests changes to policy that would address measurement issues and improve the rigor of applied educational research. The second paper explores the practical consequences of misalignment between an outcome measure and an educational intervention in the context of summative evaluation. Simulated evaluation data and a psychometric model of alignment grounded in item response modeling generate the results that address the following research question: how do differences between what a test measures and what an intervention teaches influence the results of an evaluation? The simulation derives a functional relationship between alignment, defined as the match between the test and the intervention, and treatment sensitivity, defined as the statistical power for detecting the impact of an intervention. The paper presents a new model of the effect of misalignment on the results of an evaluation and recommendations for outcome measure selection. The third paper documents the educational effectiveness of the Learning Mathematics through Representations (LMR) lesson sequence for students classified as English Learners (ELs). LMR is a research-based curricular unit designed to support upper elementary students' understandings of integers and fractions, areas considered foundational for the development of higher mathematics. The experimental evaluation contains a multilevel analysis of achievement data from two assessments: a standardized test and a researcher-developed assessment. The study coordinates the two sources of research data with a theoretical mechanism of action in order to rigorously document the effectiveness and educational equity of LMR for ELs using multiple sources of information.

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE PAGES

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun; ...

2017-11-08

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

Development of rigor mortis is not affected by muscle volume.

PubMed

Kobayashi, M; Ikegaya, H; Takase, I; Hatanaka, K; Sakurada, K; Iwase, H

2001-04-01

There is a hypothesis suggesting that rigor mortis progresses more rapidly in small muscles than in large muscles. We measured rigor mortis as tension determined isometrically in rat musculus erector spinae that had been cut into muscle bundles of various volumes. The muscle volume did not influence either the progress or the resolution of rigor mortis, which contradicts the hypothesis. Differences in pre-rigor load on the muscles influenced the onset and resolution of rigor mortis in a few pairs of samples, but did not influence the time taken for rigor mortis to reach its full extent after death. Moreover, the progress of rigor mortis in this muscle was biphasic; this may reflect the early rigor of red muscle fibres and the late rigor of white muscle fibres.

Effects of rigor status during high-pressure processing on the physical qualities of farm-raised abalone (Haliotis rufescens).

PubMed

Hughes, Brianna H; Greenberg, Neil J; Yang, Tom C; Skonberg, Denise I

2015-01-01

High-pressure processing (HPP) is used to increase meat safety and shelf-life, with conflicting quality effects depending on rigor status during HPP. In the seafood industry, HPP is used to shuck and pasteurize oysters, but its use on abalones has only been minimally evaluated and the effect of rigor status during HPP on abalone quality has not been reported. Farm-raised abalones (Haliotis rufescens) were divided into 12 HPP treatments and 1 unprocessed control treatment. Treatments were processed pre-rigor or post-rigor at 2 pressures (100 and 300 MPa) and 3 processing times (1, 3, and 5 min). The control was analyzed post-rigor. Uniform plugs were cut from adductor and foot meat for texture profile analysis, shear force, and color analysis. Subsamples were used for scanning electron microscopy of muscle ultrastructure. Texture profile analysis revealed that post-rigor processed abalone was significantly (P < 0.05) less firm and chewy than pre-rigor processed irrespective of muscle type, processing time, or pressure. L values increased with pressure to 68.9 at 300 MPa for pre-rigor processed foot, 73.8 for post-rigor processed foot, 90.9 for pre-rigor processed adductor, and 89.0 for post-rigor processed adductor. Scanning electron microscopy images showed fraying of collagen fibers in processed adductor, but did not show pressure-induced compaction of the foot myofibrils. Post-rigor processed abalone meat was more tender than pre-rigor processed meat, and post-rigor processed foot meat was lighter in color than pre-rigor processed foot meat, suggesting that waiting for rigor to resolve prior to processing abalones may improve consumer perceptions of quality and market value. © 2014 Institute of Food Technologists®

Towards fast, rigorous and efficient conformational sampling of biomolecules: Advances in accelerated molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Doshi, Urmi; Hamelberg, Donald

2015-05-01

Accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) has been proven to be a powerful biasing method for enhanced sampling of biomolecular conformations on general-purpose computational platforms. Biologically important long timescale events that are beyond the reach of standard molecular dynamics can be accessed without losing the detailed atomistic description of the system in aMD. Over other biasing methods, aMD offers the advantages of tuning the level of acceleration to access the desired timescale without any advance knowledge of the reaction coordinate. Recent advances in the implementation of aMD and its applications to small peptides and biological macromolecules are reviewed here along with a brief account of all the aMD variants introduced in the last decade. In comparison to the original implementation of aMD, the recent variant in which all the rotatable dihedral angles are accelerated (RaMD) exhibits faster convergence rates and significant improvement in statistical accuracy of retrieved thermodynamic properties. RaMD in conjunction with accelerating diffusive degrees of freedom, i.e. dual boosting, has been rigorously tested for the most difficult conformational sampling problem, protein folding. It has been shown that RaMD with dual boosting is capable of efficiently sampling multiple folding and unfolding events in small fast folding proteins. RaMD with the dual boost approach opens exciting possibilities for sampling multiple timescales in biomolecules. While equilibrium properties can be recovered satisfactorily from aMD-based methods, directly obtaining dynamics and kinetic rates for larger systems presents a future challenge. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled Recent developments of molecular dynamics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of rigorous mathematical thinking as learning method toward geometry understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugraheni, Z.; Budiyono, B.; Slamet, I.

2018-05-01

To reach higher order thinking skill, needed to be mastered the conceptual understanding. RMT is a unique realization of the cognitive conceptual construction approach based on Mediated Learning Experience (MLE) theory by Feurstein and Vygotsky’s sociocultural theory. This was quasi experimental research which was comparing the experimental class that was given Rigorous Mathematical Thinking (RMT) as learning method and control class that was given Direct Learning (DL) as the conventional learning activity. This study examined whether there was different effect of two learning method toward conceptual understanding of Junior High School students. The data was analyzed by using Independent t-test and obtained a significant difference of mean value between experimental and control class on geometry conceptual understanding. Further, by semi-structure interview known that students taught by RMT had deeper conceptual understanding than students who were taught by conventional way. By these result known that Rigorous Mathematical Thinking (RMT) as learning method have positive impact toward Geometry conceptual understanding.

Rigor force responses of permeabilized fibres from fast and slow skeletal muscles of aged rats.

PubMed

Plant, D R; Lynch, G S

2001-09-01

1. Ageing is generally associated with a decline in skeletal muscle mass and strength and a slowing of muscle contraction, factors that impact upon the quality of life for the elderly. The mechanisms underlying this age-related muscle weakness have not been fully resolved. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the decrease in muscle force as a consequence of age could be attributed partly to a decrease in the number of cross-bridges participating during contraction. 2. Given that the rigor force is proportional to the approximate total number of interacting sites between the actin and myosin filaments, we tested the null hypothesis that the rigor force of permeabilized muscle fibres from young and old rats would not be different. 3. Permeabilized fibres from the extensor digitorum longus (fast-twitch; EDL) and soleus (predominantly slow-twitch) muscles of young (6 months of age) and old (27 months of age) male F344 rats were activated in Ca2+-buffered solutions to determine force-pCa characteristics (where pCa = -log(10)[Ca2+]) and then in solutions lacking ATP and Ca2+ to determine rigor force levels. 4. The rigor forces for EDL and soleus muscle fibres were not different between young and old rats, indicating that the approximate total number of cross-bridges that can be formed between filaments did not decline with age. We conclude that the age-related decrease in force output is more likely attributed to a decrease in the force per cross-bridge and/or decreases in the efficiency of excitation-contraction coupling.

Cross-cultural validation of the revised temperament and character inventory in the Bulgarian language.

PubMed

Tilov, Boris; Dimitrova, Donka; Stoykova, Maria; Tornjova, Bianka; Foreva, Gergana; Stoyanov, Drozdstoj

2012-12-01

Health-care professions have long been considered prone to work-related stress, yet recent research in Bulgaria indicates alarmingly high levels of burnout. Cloninger's inventory is used to analyse and evaluate correlation between personality characteristics and degree of burnout syndrome manifestation among the risk categories of health-care professionals. The primary goal of this study was to test the conceptual validity and cross-cultural applicability of the revised TCI (TCI-R), developed in the United States, in a culturally, socially and economically diverse setting. Linguistic validation, test-retest studies, statistical and expert analyses were performed to assess cross-cultural applicability of the revised Cloninger's temperament and character inventory in Bulgarian, its reliability and internal consistency and construct validity. The overall internal consistency of TCI-R and its scales as well as the interscale and test-retest correlations prove that the translated version of the questionnaire is acceptable and cross-culturally applicable for the purposes of studying organizational stress and burnout risk in health-care professionals. In general the cross-cultural adaptation process, even if carried out in a rigorous way, does not always lead to the best target version and suggests it would be useful to develop new scales specific to each culture and, at the same time, to think about the trans-cultural adaptation. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, Benjamin A.; Manganello, Julia V.; Kinter, James L.

2017-08-01

Systematic error and forecast skill for temperature and precipitation in two regions of Southern Asia are investigated using hindcasts initialized May 1 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. We focus on two contiguous but geographically and dynamically diverse regions: the Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall (70-100E, 10-30 N) and the nearby mountainous area of Pakistan and Afghanistan (60-75E, 23-39 N). Forecast skill is assessed using the Sign test framework, a rigorous statistical method that can be applied to non-Gaussian variables such as precipitation and to different ensemble sizes without introducing bias. We find that models show significant systematic error in both precipitation and temperature for both regions. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) consistently yields the lowest systematic error and the highest forecast skill for both regions and variables. However, we also find that the MMEM consistently provides a statistically significant increase in skill over climatology only in the first month of the forecast. While the MMEM tends to provide higher overall skill than climatology later in the forecast, the differences are not significant at the 95% level. We also find that MMEMs constructed with a relatively small number of ensemble members per model can equal or outperform MMEMs constructed with more members in skill. This suggests some ensemble members either provide no contribution to overall skill or even detract from it.

Resolving the problem of trapped water in binding cavities: prediction of host-guest binding free energies in the SAMPL5 challenge by funnel metadynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhakat, Soumendranath; Söderhjelm, Pär

2017-01-01

The funnel metadynamics method enables rigorous calculation of the potential of mean force along an arbitrary binding path and thereby evaluation of the absolute binding free energy. A problem of such physical paths is that the mechanism characterizing the binding process is not always obvious. In particular, it might involve reorganization of the solvent in the binding site, which is not easily captured with a few geometrically defined collective variables that can be used for biasing. In this paper, we propose and test a simple method to resolve this trapped-water problem by dividing the process into an artificial host-desolvation step and an actual binding step. We show that, under certain circumstances, the contribution from the desolvation step can be calculated without introducing further statistical errors. We apply the method to the problem of predicting host-guest binding free energies in the SAMPL5 blind challenge, using two octa-acid hosts and six guest molecules. For one of the hosts, well-converged results are obtained and the prediction of relative binding free energies is the best among all the SAMPL5 submissions. For the other host, which has a narrower binding pocket, the statistical uncertainties are slightly higher; longer simulations would therefore be needed to obtain conclusive results.

Evidence for plant-derived xenomiRs based on a large-scale analysis of public small RNA sequencing data from human samples.

PubMed

Zhao, Qi; Liu, Yuanning; Zhang, Ning; Hu, Menghan; Zhang, Hao; Joshi, Trupti; Xu, Dong

2018-01-01

In recent years, an increasing number of studies have reported the presence of plant miRNAs in human samples, which resulted in a hypothesis asserting the existence of plant-derived exogenous microRNA (xenomiR). However, this hypothesis is not widely accepted in the scientific community due to possible sample contamination and the small sample size with lack of rigorous statistical analysis. This study provides a systematic statistical test that can validate (or invalidate) the plant-derived xenomiR hypothesis by analyzing 388 small RNA sequencing data from human samples in 11 types of body fluids/tissues. A total of 166 types of plant miRNAs were found in at least one human sample, of which 14 plant miRNAs represented more than 80% of the total plant miRNAs abundance in human samples. Plant miRNA profiles were characterized to be tissue-specific in different human samples. Meanwhile, the plant miRNAs identified from microbiome have an insignificant abundance compared to those from humans, while plant miRNA profiles in human samples were significantly different from those in plants, suggesting that sample contamination is an unlikely reason for all the plant miRNAs detected in human samples. This study also provides a set of testable synthetic miRNAs with isotopes that can be detected in situ after being fed to animals.

Genetic Epidemiology of Glucose-6-Dehydrogenase Deficiency in the Arab World.

PubMed

Doss, C George Priya; Alasmar, Dima R; Bux, Reem I; Sneha, P; Bakhsh, Fadheela Dad; Al-Azwani, Iman; Bekay, Rajaa El; Zayed, Hatem

2016-11-17

A systematic search was implemented using four literature databases (PubMed, Embase, Science Direct and Web of Science) to capture all the causative mutations of Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency (G6PDD) in the 22 Arab countries. Our search yielded 43 studies that captured 33 mutations (23 missense, one silent, two deletions, and seven intronic mutations), in 3,430 Arab patients with G6PDD. The 23 missense mutations were then subjected to phenotypic classification using in silico prediction tools, which were compared to the WHO pathogenicity scale as a reference. These in silico tools were tested for their predicting efficiency using rigorous statistical analyses. Of the 23 missense mutations, p.S188F, p.I48T, p.N126D, and p.V68M, were identified as the most common mutations among Arab populations, but were not unique to the Arab world, interestingly, our search strategy found four other mutations (p.N135T, p.S179N, p.R246L, and p.Q307P) that are unique to Arabs. These mutations were exposed to structural analysis and molecular dynamics simulation analysis (MDSA), which predicting these mutant forms as potentially affect the enzyme function. The combination of the MDSA, structural analysis, and in silico predictions and statistical tools we used will provide a platform for future prediction accuracy for the pathogenicity of genetic mutations.

Circular codes revisited: a statistical approach.

PubMed

Gonzalez, D L; Giannerini, S; Rosa, R

2011-04-21

In 1996 Arquès and Michel [1996. A complementary circular code in the protein coding genes. J. Theor. Biol. 182, 45-58] discovered the existence of a common circular code in eukaryote and prokaryote genomes. Since then, circular code theory has provoked great interest and underwent a rapid development. In this paper we discuss some theoretical issues related to the synchronization properties of coding sequences and circular codes with particular emphasis on the problem of retrieval and maintenance of the reading frame. Motivated by the theoretical discussion, we adopt a rigorous statistical approach in order to try to answer different questions. First, we investigate the covering capability of the whole class of 216 self-complementary, C(3) maximal codes with respect to a large set of coding sequences. The results indicate that, on average, the code proposed by Arquès and Michel has the best covering capability but, still, there exists a great variability among sequences. Second, we focus on such code and explore the role played by the proportion of the bases by means of a hierarchy of permutation tests. The results show the existence of a sort of optimization mechanism such that coding sequences are tailored as to maximize or minimize the coverage of circular codes on specific reading frames. Such optimization clearly relates the function of circular codes with reading frame synchronization. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inherited Retinal Degenerative Disease Clinical Trial Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

strategies can be designed , tested and adopted as standard care. 2 While repeat evaluation and study of affected patients are vital to rigorously...following document is a summary of our experience and research in testing retinal structure and function in eyes with degenerative retinal diseases...Network PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Patricia Zilliox, Ph.D. CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: National Neurovision Research Institute Owings

77 FR 55698 - National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants From the Pulp and Paper Industry

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-11

... tests will help to ensure that control systems are maintained properly over time and a more rigorous... approach, industry is expected to save time in the performance test submittal process. Additionally this... pulping vent gas control at mills where the CCA approach would be adversely affected. Our revised cost...

Separate Reading Exams Await Would-Be Elementary Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sawchuk, Stephen

2012-01-01

A handful of states are gradually adopting licensing tests that measure aspiring elementary teachers' ability to master aspects of what's arguably their most important task: teaching students to read. In the most recent example of what appears to be a slow but steady push, Wisconsin became the latest state to adopt a rigorous, stand-alone test of…

Integrated model development for liquid fueled rocket propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santi, L. Michael

1993-01-01

As detailed in the original statement of work, the objective of phase two of this research effort was to develop a general framework for rocket engine performance prediction that integrates physical principles, a rigorous mathematical formalism, component level test data, system level test data, and theory-observation reconciliation. Specific phase two development tasks are defined.

Next Generation of Leaching Tests

EPA Science Inventory

A corresponding abstract has been cleared for this presentation. The four methods comprising the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework are described along with the tools to support implementation of the more rigorous and accurate source terms that are developed using LEAF ...

LIHE Spectral Dynamics and Jaguar Data Acquisition System Measurement Assurance Results 2014.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Covert, Timothy T.; Willis, Michael David; Radtke, Gregg Arthur

2015-06-01

The Light Initiated High Explosive (LIHE) facility performs high rigor, high consequence impulse testing for the nuclear weapons (NW) community. To support the facility mission, LIHE's extensive data acquisition system (DAS) is comprised of several discrete components as well as a fully integrated system. Due to the high consequence and high rigor of the testing performed at LIHE, a measurement assurance plan (MAP) was developed in collaboration with NW system customers to meet their data quality needs and to provide assurance of the robustness of the LIHE DAS. While individual components of the DAS have been calibrated by the SNLmore » Primary Standards Laboratory (PSL), the integrated nature of this complex system requires verification of the complete system, from end-to-end. This measurement assurance plan (MAP) report documents the results of verification and validation procedures used to ensure that the data quality meets customer requirements.« less

Discipline-based planetary education research and computational fluid dynamics analysis of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coba, Filis

This thesis originates from the testing and implementation of an IRB-approved interactive animation designed to help students understand what causes The Reasons For The Seasons (RFTS) on Earth. Results from the testing indicated a small improvement in student understanding after exposure to the animation. Next, using the 3-D mapping tool Google Earth, students explored seasons and other planetary features on Mercury, Venus, the Moon and Mars through IRB-approved interactive tours which were developed and tested for astronomy education. Results from the tests indicated that there were statistically significant learning gains (p-value < 0.05) after students interacted with the tours compared to those who did not. The development of the tours inspired a geophysics study of the possibility of former plate motion (or plate tectonics) on Mars. A 2-D finite element convection model for the mantle of Mars was designed and solved using COMSOL Multiphysics 5.1, to investigate whether or not thermal gradients in a Mars-sized planet could cause vigorous upper mantle convection, consistent with plate tectonic processes. Results from this project indicated that stable convection could occur in the interior of a Mars-like planet assuming the presence of sufficiently high thermal gradients at about 0.8 times the mantle temperature of Earth. The convective patterns resembled hot upwelling and cool downwelling which may be similar to subduction-like features. Furthermore, increasing the temperature of the hot boundaries resulted in faster, more rigorous convective motions and a hotter average temperature.

Preserving pre-rigor meat functionality for beef patty production.

PubMed

Claus, J R; Sørheim, O

2006-06-01

Three methods were examined for preserving pre-rigor meat functionality in beef patties. Hot-boned semimembranosus muscles were processed as follows: (1) pre-rigor ground, salted, patties immediately cooked; (2) pre-rigor ground, salted and stored overnight; (3) pre-rigor injected with brine; and (4) post-rigor ground and salted. Raw patties contained 60% lean beef, 19.7% beef fat trim, 1.7% NaCl, 3.6% starch, and 15% water. Pre-rigor processing occurred at 3-3.5h postmortem. Patties made from pre-rigor ground meat had higher pH values; greater protein solubility; firmer, more cohesive, and chewier texture; and substantially lower cooking losses than the other treatments. Addition of salt was sufficient to reduce the rate and extent of glycolysis. Brine injection of intact pre-rigor muscles resulted in some preservation of the functional properties but not as pronounced as with salt addition to pre-rigor ground meat.

RS-25 Rocket Engine Test

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-08-09

The 8.5-minute test conducted at NASA’s Stennis Space Center is part of a series of tests designed to put the upgraded former space shuttle engines through the rigorous temperature and pressure conditions they will experience during a launch. The tests also support the development of a new controller, or “brain,” for the engine, which monitors engine status and communicates between the rocket and the engine, relaying commands to the engine and transmitting data back to the rocket.

RS 25 Hot Fire test

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-08-18

The 7.5-minute test conducted at NASA’s Stennis Space Center is part of a series of tests designed to put the upgraded former space shuttle engines through the rigorous temperature and pressure conditions they will experience during a launch. The tests also support the development of a new controller, or “brain,” for the engine, which monitors engine status and communicates between the rocket and the engine, relaying commands to the engine and transmitting data back to the rocket.

RS-25 Hot Fire test

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-08-18

The 7.5-minute test conducted at NASA’s Stennis Space Center is part of a series of tests designed to put the upgraded former space shuttle engines through the rigorous temperature and pressure conditions they will experience during a launch. The tests also support the development of a new controller, or “brain,” for the engine, which monitors engine status and communicates between the rocket and the engine, relaying commands to the engine and transmitting data back to the rocket.

Valuing goodwill: not-for-profits prepare for annual impairment testing.

PubMed

Heuer, Christian; Travers, Mary Ann K

2011-02-01

Accounting standards for valuing goodwill and intangible assets are becoming more rigorous for not-for-profit organizations: Not-for-profit healthcare organizations need to test for goodwill impairment at least annually. Impairment testing is a two-stage process: initial analysis to determine whether impairment exists and subsequent calculation of the magnitude of impairment. Certain "triggering" events compel all organizations--whether for-profit or not-for-profit--to perform an impairment test for goodwill or intangible assets.

Program Manager: Journal of the Defense Systems Management College. Volume 16, Number 3, May-June 1987

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-06-01

redress a growingstrategic imbalance and provide an en- test pilots conducted a rigorous flight test during capability to penetrate Soviet program...ment career path for rated officers vidual rotates through assignments in ( pilots and navigators) is different from engineering, test and evaluation...pain. Acquiring the B-1B, or any other weapon system for that matter, entails developing, testing ard producing new technology. In any high-tech en

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

More, R.M.

A new statistical model (the quantum-statistical model (QSM)) was recently introduced by Kalitkin and Kuzmina for the calculation of thermodynamic properties of compressed matter. This paper examines the QSM and gives (i) a numerical QSM calculation of pressure and energy for aluminum and comparison to existing augmented-plane-wave data; (ii) display of separate kinetic, exchange, and quantum pressure terms; (iii) a study of electron density at the nucleus; (iv) a study of the effects of the Kirzhnitz-Weizsacker parameter controlling the gradient terms; (v) an analytic expansion for very high densities; and (vi) rigorous pressure theorems including a general version of themore » virial theorem which applies to an arbitrary microscopic volume. It is concluded that the QSM represents the most accurate and consistent theory of the Thomas-Fermi type.« less

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Special Blood Donation Procedures

MedlinePlus

... blood. For example, in the weeks before undergoing elective surgery, a person may donate several units of blood ... rigorous donor screening and testing. In addition, elderly patients may not tolerate donating blood before surgery because they are more likely to have side ...

Statistical moments of the Strehl ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaitskova, Natalia; Esselborn, Michael; Gladysz, Szymon

2012-07-01

Knowledge of the statistical characteristics of the Strehl ratio is essential for the performance assessment of the existing and future adaptive optics systems. For full assessment not only the mean value of the Strehl ratio but also higher statistical moments are important. Variance is related to the stability of an image and skewness reflects the chance to have in a set of short exposure images more or less images with the quality exceeding the mean. Skewness is a central parameter in the domain of lucky imaging. We present a rigorous theory for the calculation of the mean value, the variance and the skewness of the Strehl ratio. In our approach we represent the residual wavefront as being formed by independent cells. The level of the adaptive optics correction defines the number of the cells and the variance of the cells, which are the two main parameters of our theory. The deliverables are the values of the three moments as the functions of the correction level. We make no further assumptions except for the statistical independence of the cells.

How Do You Determine Whether The Earth Is Warming Up?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo, J. M.; Comeau, D.; Flaschka, H.

2012-12-01

How does one determine whether the extreme summer temperatures in the North East of the US, or in Moscow during the summer of 2010, was an extreme weather fluctuation or the result of a systematic global climate warming trend? It is only under exceptional circumstances that one can determine whether an observational climate signal belongs to a particular statistical distribution. In fact, observed climate signals are rarely "statistical" and thus there is usually no way to rigorously obtain enough field data to produce a trend or tendency, based upon data alone. Furthermore, this type of data is often multi-scale. We propose a trend or tendency methodology that does not make use of a parametric or a statistical assumption. The most important feature of this trend strategy is that it is defined in very precise mathematical terms. The tendency is easily understood and practical, and its algorithmic realization is fairly robust. In addition to proposing a trend, the methodology can be adopted to generate surrogate statistical models, useful in reduced filtering schemes of time dependent processes.

Statistical modeling of natural backgrounds in hyperspectral LWIR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truslow, Eric; Manolakis, Dimitris; Cooley, Thomas; Meola, Joseph

2016-09-01

Hyperspectral sensors operating in the long wave infrared (LWIR) have a wealth of applications including remote material identification and rare target detection. While statistical models for modeling surface reflectance in visible and near-infrared regimes have been well studied, models for the temperature and emissivity in the LWIR have not been rigorously investigated. In this paper, we investigate modeling hyperspectral LWIR data using a statistical mixture model for the emissivity and surface temperature. Statistical models for the surface parameters can be used to simulate surface radiances and at-sensor radiance which drives the variability of measured radiance and ultimately the performance of signal processing algorithms. Thus, having models that adequately capture data variation is extremely important for studying performance trades. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we study the validity of this model using real hyperspectral data, and compare the relative variability of hyperspectral data in the LWIR and visible and near-infrared (VNIR) regimes. Second, we illustrate how materials that are easily distinguished in the VNIR, may be difficult to separate when imaged in the LWIR.

Statistical Mechanics of Disordered Systems - Series: Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics (No. 18)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovier, Anton

2006-06-01

Our mathematical understanding of the statistical mechanics of disordered systems is going through a period of stunning progress. This self-contained book is a graduate-level introduction for mathematicians and for physicists interested in the mathematical foundations of the field, and can be used as a textbook for a two-semester course on mathematical statistical mechanics. It assumes only basic knowledge of classical physics and, on the mathematics side, a good working knowledge of graduate-level probability theory. The book starts with a concise introduction to statistical mechanics, proceeds to disordered lattice spin systems, and concludes with a presentation of the latest developments in the mathematical understanding of mean-field spin glass models. In particular, recent progress towards a rigorous understanding of the replica symmetry-breaking solutions of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glass models, due to Guerra, Aizenman-Sims-Starr and Talagrand, is reviewed in some detail. Comprehensive introduction to an active and fascinating area of research Clear exposition that builds to the state of the art in the mathematics of spin glasses Written by a well-known and active researcher in the field

A methodology for the rigorous verification of plasma simulation codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riva, Fabio

2016-10-01

The methodology used to assess the reliability of numerical simulation codes constitutes the Verification and Validation (V&V) procedure. V&V is composed by two separate tasks: the verification, which is a mathematical issue targeted to assess that the physical model is correctly solved, and the validation, which determines the consistency of the code results, and therefore of the physical model, with experimental data. In the present talk we focus our attention on the verification, which in turn is composed by the code verification, targeted to assess that a physical model is correctly implemented in a simulation code, and the solution verification, that quantifies the numerical error affecting a simulation. Bridging the gap between plasma physics and other scientific domains, we introduced for the first time in our domain a rigorous methodology for the code verification, based on the method of manufactured solutions, as well as a solution verification based on the Richardson extrapolation. This methodology was applied to GBS, a three-dimensional fluid code based on a finite difference scheme, used to investigate the plasma turbulence in basic plasma physics experiments and in the tokamak scrape-off layer. Overcoming the difficulty of dealing with a numerical method intrinsically affected by statistical noise, we have now generalized the rigorous verification methodology to simulation codes based on the particle-in-cell algorithm, which are employed to solve Vlasov equation in the investigation of a number of plasma physics phenomena.

Only marginal alignment of disc galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrae, René; Jahnke, Knud

2011-12-01

Testing theories of angular-momentum acquisition of rotationally supported disc galaxies is the key to understanding the formation of this type of galaxies. The tidal-torque theory aims to explain this acquisition process in a cosmological framework and predicts positive autocorrelations of angular-momentum orientation and spiral-arm handedness, i.e. alignment of disc galaxies, on short distance scales of 1 Mpc h-1. This disc alignment can also cause systematic effects in weak-lensing measurements. Previous observations claimed discovering these correlations but are overly optimistic in the reported level of statistical significance of the detections. Errors in redshift, ellipticity and morphological classifications were not taken into account, although they have a significant impact. We explain how to rigorously propagate all the important errors through the estimation process. Analysing disc galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data base, we find that positive autocorrelations of spiral-arm handedness and angular-momentum orientations on distance scales of 1 Mpc h-1 are plausible but not statistically significant. Current data appear not good enough to constrain parameters of theory. This result agrees with a simple hypothesis test in the Local Group, where we also find no evidence for disc alignment. Moreover, we demonstrate that ellipticity estimates based on second moments are strongly biased by galactic bulges even for Scd galaxies, thereby corrupting correlation estimates and overestimating the impact of disc alignment on weak-lensing studies. Finally, we discuss the potential of future sky surveys. We argue that photometric redshifts have too large errors, i.e. PanSTARRS and LSST cannot be used. Conversely, the EUCLID project will not cover the relevant redshift regime. We also discuss the potentials and problems of front-edge classifications of galaxy discs in order to improve the autocorrelation estimates of angular-momentum orientation.

The power laws of violence against women: rescaling research and policies.

PubMed

Kappler, Karolin E; Kaltenbrunner, Andreas

2012-01-01

Violence against Women -despite its perpetuation over centuries and its omnipresence at all social levels- entered into social consciousness and the general agenda of Social Sciences only recently, mainly thanks to feminist research, campaigns, and general social awareness. The present article analyzes in a secondary analysis of German prevalence data on Violence against Women, whether the frequency and severity of Violence against Women can be described with power laws. Although the investigated distributions all resemble power-law distributions, a rigorous statistical analysis accepts this hypothesis at a significance level of 0.1 only for 1 of 5 cases of the tested frequency distributions and with some restrictions for the severity of physical violence. Lowering the significance level to 0.01 leads to the acceptance of the power-law hypothesis in 2 of the 5 tested frequency distributions and as well for the severity of domestic violence. The rejections might be mainly due to the noise in the data, with biases caused by self-reporting, errors through rounding, desirability response bias, and selection bias. Future victimological surveys should be designed explicitly to avoid these deficiencies in the data to be able to clearly answer the question whether Violence against Women follows a power-law pattern. This finding would not only have statistical implications for the processing and presentation of the data, but also groundbreaking consequences on the general understanding of Violence against Women and policy modeling, as the skewed nature of the underlying distributions makes evident that Violence against Women is a highly disparate and unequal social problem. This opens new questions for interdisciplinary research, regarding the interplay between environmental, experimental, and social factors on victimization.

The Power Laws of Violence against Women: Rescaling Research and Policies

PubMed Central

Kappler, Karolin E.; Kaltenbrunner, Andreas

2012-01-01

Background Violence against Women –despite its perpetuation over centuries and its omnipresence at all social levels– entered into social consciousness and the general agenda of Social Sciences only recently, mainly thanks to feminist research, campaigns, and general social awareness. The present article analyzes in a secondary analysis of German prevalence data on Violence against Women, whether the frequency and severity of Violence against Women can be described with power laws. Principal Findings Although the investigated distributions all resemble power-law distributions, a rigorous statistical analysis accepts this hypothesis at a significance level of 0.1 only for 1 of 5 cases of the tested frequency distributions and with some restrictions for the severity of physical violence. Lowering the significance level to 0.01 leads to the acceptance of the power-law hypothesis in 2 of the 5 tested frequency distributions and as well for the severity of domestic violence. The rejections might be mainly due to the noise in the data, with biases caused by self-reporting, errors through rounding, desirability response bias, and selection bias. Conclusion Future victimological surveys should be designed explicitly to avoid these deficiencies in the data to be able to clearly answer the question whether Violence against Women follows a power-law pattern. This finding would not only have statistical implications for the processing and presentation of the data, but also groundbreaking consequences on the general understanding of Violence against Women and policy modeling, as the skewed nature of the underlying distributions makes evident that Violence against Women is a highly disparate and unequal social problem. This opens new questions for interdisciplinary research, regarding the interplay between environmental, experimental, and social factors on victimization. PMID:22768348

Non-Gaussian Distributions Affect Identification of Expression Patterns, Functional Annotation, and Prospective Classification in Human Cancer Genomes

PubMed Central

Marko, Nicholas F.; Weil, Robert J.

2012-01-01

Introduction Gene expression data is often assumed to be normally-distributed, but this assumption has not been tested rigorously. We investigate the distribution of expression data in human cancer genomes and study the implications of deviations from the normal distribution for translational molecular oncology research. Methods We conducted a central moments analysis of five cancer genomes and performed empiric distribution fitting to examine the true distribution of expression data both on the complete-experiment and on the individual-gene levels. We used a variety of parametric and nonparametric methods to test the effects of deviations from normality on gene calling, functional annotation, and prospective molecular classification using a sixth cancer genome. Results Central moments analyses reveal statistically-significant deviations from normality in all of the analyzed cancer genomes. We observe as much as 37% variability in gene calling, 39% variability in functional annotation, and 30% variability in prospective, molecular tumor subclassification associated with this effect. Conclusions Cancer gene expression profiles are not normally-distributed, either on the complete-experiment or on the individual-gene level. Instead, they exhibit complex, heavy-tailed distributions characterized by statistically-significant skewness and kurtosis. The non-Gaussian distribution of this data affects identification of differentially-expressed genes, functional annotation, and prospective molecular classification. These effects may be reduced in some circumstances, although not completely eliminated, by using nonparametric analytics. This analysis highlights two unreliable assumptions of translational cancer gene expression analysis: that “small” departures from normality in the expression data distributions are analytically-insignificant and that “robust” gene-calling algorithms can fully compensate for these effects. PMID:23118863

LBNP as useful tool for pilot candidates selection to the Polish Air Force: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Romuald, M; Mariusz, Z; Artur, D; Krzysztof, R

2001-07-01

Candidates to the Polish Air Force are to fulfill strict medical conditions. Every candidate, wanting to become a fighter pilot or not, has to pass a rigorous centrifuge examination. This is a costly and especially stressful process for the candidates, as first-timers. This article explores possibility for different approach to candidates fitness to fly assessment. 14 candidates (21-22 yrs old) were subjected to a regular GOR centrifuge profile (0.1 G/s; up to +7.0 Gz; unprotected) and to lower body negative pressure (LBNP) examination (2 min. rest period followed by 3 min. at -40 mm Hg; supine position). Both, centrifuge and LBNP examinations were carried out the same day, with about 1 hour gap between them. ECG and impedance cardiography (ICG) were being recorded during both tests. The following parameters were calculated: HR and QZ (time between ventricular depolarization [beginning of the Q wave in ECG] and local maximum of the first derivative [dZ/dt] in ICG). QZ was considered to be an effective measure of dynamic heart function. +Gz tolerance for the group was +5.94 +/- 0.98 Gz. Correlation between +Gz tolerance and QZ values during LBNP test (-40 mm Hg) for all subjects was equal to r=0.6. Correlation between sets of parameters (canonical analysis) for LBNP and centrifuge was equal to r=0.78. Both results were statistically insignificant (p<0.09). Baseline HR values were 121 +/- 19 bpm and 75 +/- 12 bpm, and maximal HR values were 172 +/- 21 bpm and 81 +/- 13 bpm, respectively for centrifuge and LBNP. For both, baseline and maximal HR during LBNP and G exposure canonical correlation was equal to r=0.72. The results were statistically not significant, however. Centrifuge examination is much more stressful than LBNP test. This could have implication on the objective results of centrifuge test. The results may suggest that LBNP test could be a used in pilot candidates selection, especially those presenting high baseline HR values.

A novel alignment-free method for detection of lateral genetic transfer based on TF-IDF.

PubMed

Cong, Yingnan; Chan, Yao-Ban; Ragan, Mark A

2016-07-25

Lateral genetic transfer (LGT) plays an important role in the evolution of microbes. Existing computational methods for detecting genomic regions of putative lateral origin scale poorly to large data. Here, we propose a novel method based on TF-IDF (Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency) statistics to detect not only regions of lateral origin, but also their origin and direction of transfer, in sets of hierarchically structured nucleotide or protein sequences. This approach is based on the frequency distributions of k-mers in the sequences. If a set of contiguous k-mers appears sufficiently more frequently in another phyletic group than in its own, we infer that they have been transferred from the first group to the second. We performed rigorous tests of TF-IDF using simulated and empirical datasets. With the simulated data, we tested our method under different parameter settings for sequence length, substitution rate between and within groups and post-LGT, deletion rate, length of transferred region and k size, and found that we can detect LGT events with high precision and recall. Our method performs better than an established method, ALFY, which has high recall but low precision. Our method is efficient, with runtime increasing approximately linearly with sequence length.

Toward a quantitative account of pitch distribution in spontaneous narrative: Method and validation

PubMed Central

Matteson, Samuel E.; Streit Olness, Gloria; Caplow, Nancy J.

2013-01-01

Pitch is well-known both to animate human discourse and to convey meaning in communication. The study of the statistical population distributions of pitch in discourse will undoubtedly benefit from methodological improvements. The current investigation examines a method that parameterizes pitch in discourse as musical pitch interval H measured in units of cents and that disaggregates the sequence of peak word-pitches using tools employed in time-series analysis and digital signal processing. The investigators test the proposed methodology by its application to distributions in pitch interval of the peak word-pitch (collectively called the discourse gamut) that occur in simulated and actual spontaneous emotive narratives obtained from 17 middle-aged African-American adults. The analysis, in rigorous tests, not only faithfully reproduced simulated distributions imbedded in realistic time series that drift and include pitch breaks, but the protocol also reveals that the empirical distributions exhibit a common hidden structure when normalized to a slowly varying mode (called the gamut root) of their respective probability density functions. Quantitative differences between narratives reveal the speakers' relative propensity for the use of pitch levels corresponding to elevated degrees of a discourse gamut (the “e-la”) superimposed upon a continuum that conforms systematically to an asymmetric Laplace distribution. PMID:23654400

The evaluation of Murray's law in Psilotum nudum (Psilotaceae), an analogue of ancestral vascular plants.

PubMed

McCulloh, Katherine A; Sperry, John S

2005-06-01

Previous work has shown that the xylem of seed plants follows Murray's law when conduits do not provide structural support to the plant. Here, compliance with Murray's law was tested in the stem photosynthesizer Psilotum nudum, a seedless vascular plant. Psilotum nudum was chosen because the central stele does not provide structural support, which means that Murray's law is applicable, and because its simple shoot structure resembles the earliest vascular plants. Murray's law predicts that the sum of the conduit radii cubed (Σr(3)) should decrease in direct proportion with the volume flow rate (Q) to maximize the hydraulic conductance per unit vascular investment. Agreement with Murray's law was assessed by estimating the transpiration rate distal to a cross-section, which should determine Q under steady state conditions, and comparing that with the Σr(3) of that cross-section. As predicted, regressions between the Σr(3) of the cross-section and Q resulted in a linear relationship with a y-intercept that was not different from zero. Two more rigorous statistical tests were also unable to reject Murray's law. Psilotum nudum plants also increased their conductance per investment by having more conduits distally than proximally, which is more efficient hydraulically than equal or declining conduit numbers distally.

Strand-seq: a unifying tool for studies of chromosome segregation

PubMed Central

Falconer, Ester; Lansdorp, Peter M.

2013-01-01

Non random segregation of sister chromatids has been implicated to help specify daughter cell fate (the Silent Sister Hypothesis [1]) or to protect the genome of long-lived stem cells (the Immortal Strand Hypothesis [2]). The idea that sister chromatids are non-randomly segregated into specific daughter cells is only marginally supported by data in sporadic and often contradictory studies. As a result, the field has moved forward rather slowly. The advent of being able to directly label and differentiate sister chromatids in vivo using fluorescence in situ hybridization [3] was a significant advance for such studies. However, this approach is limited by the need for large tracks of unidirectional repeats on chromosomes and the reliance on quantitative imaging of fluorescent probes and rigorous statistical analysis to discern between the two competing hypotheses. A novel method called Strand-seq which uses next-generation sequencing to assay sister chromatid inheritance patterns independently for each chromosome [4] offers a comprehensive approach to test for non-random segregation. In addition Strand-seq enables studies on the deposition of chromatin marks in relation to DNA replication. This method is expected to help unify the field by testing previous claims of non-random segregation in an unbiased way in many model systems in vitro and in vivo. PMID:23665005

Trends in Study Methods Used in Undergraduate Medical Education Research, 1969–2007

PubMed Central

Baernstein, Amy; Liss, Hillary K.; Carney, Patricia A.; Elmore, Joann G.

2011-01-01

Context Evidence-based medical education requires rigorous studies appraising educational efficacy. Objectives To assess trends over time in methods used to evaluate undergraduate medical education interventions and to identify whether participation of medical education departments or centers is associated with more rigorous methods. Data Sources The PubMed, Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry, Campbell Collaboration, and ERIC databases (January 1966–March 2007) were searched using terms equivalent to students, medical and education, medical crossed with all relevant study designs. Study Selection We selected publications in all languages from every fifth year, plus the most recent 12 months, that evaluated an educational intervention for undergraduate medical students. Four hundred seventy-two publications met criteria for review. Data Extraction Data were abstracted on number of participants; types of comparison groups; whether outcomes assessed were objective, subjective, and/or validated; timing of outcome assessments; funding; and participation of medical education departments and centers. Ten percent of publications were independently abstracted by 2 authors to assess validity of the data abstraction. Results The annual number of publications increased over time from 1 (1969–1970) to 147 (2006–2007). In the most recent year, there was a mean of 145 medical student participants; 9 (6%) recruited participants from multiple institutions; 80 (54%) used comparison groups; 37 (25%) used randomized control groups; 91 (62%) had objective outcomes; 23 (16%) had validated outcomes; 35 (24%) assessed an outcome more than 1 month later; 21 (14%) estimated statistical power; and 66 (45%) reported funding. In 2006–2007, medical education department or center participation, reported in 46 (31%) of the recent publications, was associated only with enrolling more medical student participants (P = .04); for all studies from 1969 to 2007, it was associated only with measuring an objective outcome (P = .048). Between 1969 and 2007, the percentage of publications reporting statistical power and funding increased; percentages did not change for other study features. Conclusions The annual number of published studies of undergraduate medical education interventions demonstrating methodological rigor has been increasing. However, considerable opportunities for improvement remain. PMID:17785648

Testing the Impact of a Pre-Instructional Digital Game on Middle-Grade Students' Understanding of Photosynthesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culp, Katherine McMillan; Martin, Wendy; Clements, Margaret; Lewis Presser, Ashley

2015-01-01

Rigorous studies of the impact of digital games on student learning remain relatively rare, as do studies of games as supports for learning difficult, core curricular concepts in the context of normal classroom practices. This study uses a blocked, cluster randomized controlled trial design to test the impact of a digital game, played as homework…

Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

The ASIBS Short Course: A unique strategy for increasing statistical competency of junior investigators in academic medicine.

PubMed

Benn, Emma K T; Tu, Chengcheng; Palermo, Ann-Gel S; Borrell, Luisa N; Kiernan, Michaela; Sandre, Mary; Bagiella, Emilia

2017-08-01

As clinical researchers at academic medical institutions across the United States increasingly manage complex clinical databases and registries, they often lack the statistical expertise to utilize the data for research purposes. This statistical inadequacy prevents junior investigators from disseminating clinical findings in peer-reviewed journals and from obtaining research funding, thereby hindering their potential for promotion. Underrepresented minorities, in particular, confront unique challenges as clinical investigators stemming from a lack of methodologically rigorous research training in their graduate medical education. This creates a ripple effect for them with respect to acquiring full-time appointments, obtaining federal research grants, and promotion to leadership positions in academic medicine. To fill this major gap in the statistical training of junior faculty and fellows, the authors developed the Applied Statistical Independence in Biological Systems (ASIBS) Short Course. The overall goal of ASIBS is to provide formal applied statistical training, via a hybrid distance and in-person learning format, to junior faculty and fellows actively involved in research at US academic medical institutions, with a special emphasis on underrepresented minorities. The authors present an overview of the design and implementation of ASIBS, along with a short-term evaluation of its impact for the first cohort of ASIBS participants.

A Practical Approach to Replication of Abstract Data Objects

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-01

rigorous torture testing. Torture testing was done with the aid of a basher program that allows the user to configure an object and perform a specified...number of transactions, each containing a specified number of operations on the object. There are separate basher programs for RSMs and MRSMs. The...modify the object (Writes and Erases, for RSMs). The basher maintains a local, non- replicated table that tracks the RSM that is under test. Each

Is the 'driving test' a robust quality indicator of colonoscopy performance?

PubMed

Kelly, Nicholas M; Moorehead, John; Tham, Tony

2010-04-16

Colorectal cancer is a major cause of death in the western world and is currently the second commonest cause of death from malignant disease in the UK. Recently a "driving test" for colonoscopists wishing to take part in the National Health Service Bowel Cancer Screening Program has been introduced, with the aim of improving quality in colonoscopy. We describe the accreditation process and have reviewed the published evidence for its use. We compared this method of assessment to what occurs in other developed countries. To the authors' knowledge no other countries have similar methods of assessment of practicing colonoscopists, and instead use critical evaluation of key quality criteria. The UK appears to have one of the most rigorous accreditation processes, although this still has flaws. The published evidence suggests that the written part of the accreditation is not a good discriminating test and it needs to be improved or abandoned. Further work is needed on the best methods of assessing polypectomy skills. Rigorous systems need to be in place for the colonoscopist who fails the assessment.

ASTM Committee C28: International Standards for Properties and Performance of Advanced Ceramics-Three Decades of High-Quality, Technically-Rigorous Normalization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenkins, Michael G.; Salem, Jonathan A.

2016-01-01

Physical and mechanical properties and performance of advanced ceramics and glasses are difficult to measure correctly without the proper techniques. For over three decades, ASTM Committee C28 on Advanced Ceramics, has developed high-quality, technically-rigorous, full-consensus standards (e.g., test methods, practices, guides, terminology) to measure properties and performance of monolithic and composite ceramics that may be applied to glasses in some cases. These standards contain testing particulars for many mechanical, physical, thermal, properties and performance of these materials. As a result these standards are used to generate accurate, reliable, repeatable and complete data. Within Committee C28, users, producers, researchers, designers, academicians, etc. have written, continually updated, and validated through round-robin test programs, 50 standards since the Committee's founding in 1986. This paper provides a detailed retrospective of the 30 years of ASTM Committee C28 including a graphical pictogram listing of C28 standards along with examples of the tangible benefits of standards for advanced ceramics to demonstrate their practical applications.

The ICA Communication Audit: Rationale and Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Gerald M.

After reviewing previous research on communication in organizations, the Organizational Communication Division of the International Communication Association (ICA) decided, in 1971, to develop its own measurement system, the ICA Communication Audit. Rigorous pilot-testing, refinement, standardization, and application would allow the construction…

Analytical Methodology Used To Assess/Refine Observatory Thermal Vacuum Test Conditions For the Landsat 8 Data Continuity Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fantano, Louis

2015-01-01

Thermal and Fluids Analysis Workshop Silver Spring, MD NCTS 21070-15 The Landsat 8 Data Continuity Mission, which is part of the United States Geologic Survey (USGS), launched February 11, 2013. A Landsat environmental test requirement mandated that test conditions bound worst-case flight thermal environments. This paper describes a rigorous analytical methodology applied to assess refine proposed thermal vacuum test conditions and the issues encountered attempting to satisfy this requirement.

Rigor of non-dairy galactose restriction in early childhood, measured by retrospective survey, does not associate with severity of five long-term outcomes quantified in 231 children and adults with classic galactosemia

PubMed Central

Frederick, Allison B.; Cutler, David J.; Fridovich-Keil, Judith L.

2017-01-01

One of many vexing decisions faced by parents of an infant with classic galactosemia (CG) is how carefully to restrict non-dairy galactose from their growing child’s diet. Until recently, many experts recommended vigorous lifelong dietary restriction of milk and all high-galactose dairy products as well as some non-dairy sources of galactose such as legumes and specific fruits and vegetables. Recently, experts have begun to relax their recommendations. The new recommendations, that restrict only high galactose dairy products, were made in the face of uncertainty, however, because no sufficiently powered study had been reported testing for possible association between rigor of non-dairy galactose restriction and severity of long-term outcomes in CG. Here we describe the largest study of diet and outcomes in CG reported to date, conducted using information gathered from 231 patients with CG and 71 unaffected sibling controls. We compared rigor of dietary galactose restriction, measured using a 4-point scale by a retrospective parent-response survey, with outcomes including growth, adaptive behaviors, receipt of speech therapy, receipt of special educational services, and for girls and women, a plasma marker of ovarian function (AMH). Our results confirmed the expected differences between patients and controls, but among patients showed no significant association between rigor of non-dairy galactose restriction in early childhood and any of the outcomes quantified. Indeed, some weak associations were seen suggesting that rigorous restriction of non-dairy galactose may be deleterious rather than beneficial. Despite limitations, these findings support the ongoing trend toward diet liberalization with regard to non-dairy sources of galactose for children and adults with classic galactosemia. PMID:28695375

Recent Developments: PKI Square Dish for the Soleras Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, W. E.

1984-01-01

The Square Dish solar collectors are subjected to rigorous design attention regarding corrosion at the site, and certification of the collector structure. The microprocessor controls and tracking mechanisms are improved in the areas of fail safe operations, durability, and low parasitic power requirements. Prototype testing demonstrates performance efficiency of approximately 72% at 730 F outlet temperature. Studies are conducted that include developing formal engineering design studies, developing formal engineering design drawing and fabrication details, establishing subcontracts for fabrication of major components, and developing a rigorous quality control system. The improved design is more cost effective to product and the extensive manuals developed for assembly and operation/maintenance result in faster field assembly and ease of operation.

Recent developments: PKI square dish for the Soleras Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, W. E.

1984-03-01

The Square Dish solar collectors are subjected to rigorous design attention regarding corrosion at the site, and certification of the collector structure. The microprocessor controls and tracking mechanisms are improved in the areas of fail safe operations, durability, and low parasitic power requirements. Prototype testing demonstrates performance efficiency of approximately 72% at 730 F outlet temperature. Studies are conducted that include developing formal engineering design studies, developing formal engineering design drawing and fabrication details, establishing subcontracts for fabrication of major components, and developing a rigorous quality control system. The improved design is more cost effective to product and the extensive manuals developed for assembly and operation/maintenance result in faster field assembly and ease of operation.

A Rigorous Framework for Optimization of Expensive Functions by Surrogates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Booker, Andrew J.; Dennis, J. E., Jr.; Frank, Paul D.; Serafini, David B.; Torczon, Virginia; Trosset, Michael W.

1998-01-01

The goal of the research reported here is to develop rigorous optimization algorithms to apply to some engineering design problems for which design application of traditional optimization approaches is not practical. This paper presents and analyzes a framework for generating a sequence of approximations to the objective function and managing the use of these approximations as surrogates for optimization. The result is to obtain convergence to a minimizer of an expensive objective function subject to simple constraints. The approach is widely applicable because it does not require, or even explicitly approximate, derivatives of the objective. Numerical results are presented for a 31-variable helicopter rotor blade design example and for a standard optimization test example.

OCT Amplitude and Speckle Statistics of Discrete Random Media.

PubMed

Almasian, Mitra; van Leeuwen, Ton G; Faber, Dirk J

2017-11-01

Speckle, amplitude fluctuations in optical coherence tomography (OCT) images, contains information on sub-resolution structural properties of the imaged sample. Speckle statistics could therefore be utilized in the characterization of biological tissues. However, a rigorous theoretical framework relating OCT speckle statistics to structural tissue properties has yet to be developed. As a first step, we present a theoretical description of OCT speckle, relating the OCT amplitude variance to size and organization for samples of discrete random media (DRM). Starting the calculations from the size and organization of the scattering particles, we analytically find expressions for the OCT amplitude mean, amplitude variance, the backscattering coefficient and the scattering coefficient. We assume fully developed speckle and verify the validity of this assumption by experiments on controlled samples of silica microspheres suspended in water. We show that the OCT amplitude variance is sensitive to sub-resolution changes in size and organization of the scattering particles. Experimentally determined and theoretically calculated optical properties are compared and in good agreement.

Brightness temperature and attenuation diversity statistics at 20.6 and 31.65 GHz for the Colorado Research Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westwater, Ed R.; Falls, M. J.; Fionda, E.

1992-01-01

A limited network of four dual-channel microwave radiometers, with frequencies of 20.6 and 31.65 GHz, was operated in the front range of eastern Colorado from 1985 to 1988. Data, from November 1987 through October 1988 are analyzed to determine both single-station and joint-station brightness temperature and attenuation statistics. Only zenith observations were made. The spatial separations of the stations varied from 50 km to 190 km. Before the statistics were developed, the data were screened by rigorous quality control methods. One such method, that of 20.6 vs. 31.65 GHz scatter plots, is analyzed in detail, and comparisons are made of measured vs calculated data. At 20.6 and 31.65 GHz, vertical attenuations of 5 and 8 dB are exceeded 0.01 percent of the time. For these four stations and at the same 0.01 percent level, diversity gains from 6 to 8 dB are possible with the 50 to 190 km separations.

First Monte Carlo analysis of fragmentation functions from single-inclusive e + e - annihilation

DOE PAGES

Sato, Nobuo; Ethier, J. J.; Melnitchouk, W.; ...

2016-12-02

Here, we perform the first iterative Monte Carlo (IMC) analysis of fragmentation functions constrained by all available data from single-inclusive $e^+ e^-$ annihilation into pions and kaons. The IMC method eliminates potential bias in traditional analyses based on single fits introduced by fixing parameters not well contrained by the data, and provides a statistically rigorous determination of uncertainties. Our analysis reveals specific features of fragmentation functions using the new IMC methodology and those obtained from previous analyses, especially for light quarks and for strange quark fragmentation to kaons.

Cancer Imaging Phenomics Software Suite: Application to Brain and Breast Cancer | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

Cancer.gov

The transition of oncologic imaging from its “industrial era” to it is “information era” demands analytical methods that 1) extract information from this data that is clinically and biologically relevant; 2) integrate imaging, clinical, and genomic data via rigorous statistical and computational methodologies in order to derive models valuable for understanding cancer mechanisms, diagnosis, prognostic assessment, response evaluation, and personalized treatment management; 3) are available to the biomedical community for easy use and application, with the aim of understanding, diagnosing, an

Exclusion Bounds for Extended Anyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Simon; Lundholm, Douglas

2018-01-01

We introduce a rigorous approach to the many-body spectral theory of extended anyons, that is quantum particles confined to two dimensions that interact via attached magnetic fluxes of finite extent. Our main results are many-body magnetic Hardy inequalities and local exclusion principles for these particles, leading to estimates for the ground-state energy of the anyon gas over the full range of the parameters. This brings out further non-trivial aspects in the dependence on the anyonic statistics parameter, and also gives improvements in the ideal (non-extended) case.

Clopper-Pearson bounds from HEP data cuts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, B. A.

2001-08-01

For the measurement of Ns signals in N events rigorous confidence bounds on the true signal probability pexact were established in a classical paper by Clopper and Pearson [Biometrica 26, 404 (1934)]. Here, their bounds are generalized to the HEP situation where cuts on the data tag signals with probability Ps and background data with likelihood Pb

Photons Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batic, Matej; Begalli, Marcia; Han, Min Cheol; Hauf, Steffen; Hoff, Gabriela; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Kim, Han Sung; Grazia Pia, Maria; Saracco, Paolo; Weidenspointner, Georg

2014-06-01

A systematic review of methods and data for the Monte Carlo simulation of photon interactions is in progress: it concerns a wide set of theoretical modeling approaches and data libraries available for this purpose. Models and data libraries are assessed quantitatively with respect to an extensive collection of experimental measurements documented in the literature to determine their accuracy; this evaluation exploits rigorous statistical analysis methods. The computational performance of the associated modeling algorithms is evaluated as well. An overview of the assessment of photon interaction models and results of the experimental validation are presented.

A ground truth based comparative study on clustering of gene expression data.

PubMed

Zhu, Yitan; Wang, Zuyi; Miller, David J; Clarke, Robert; Xuan, Jianhua; Hoffman, Eric P; Wang, Yue

2008-05-01

Given the variety of available clustering methods for gene expression data analysis, it is important to develop an appropriate and rigorous validation scheme to assess the performance and limitations of the most widely used clustering algorithms. In this paper, we present a ground truth based comparative study on the functionality, accuracy, and stability of five data clustering methods, namely hierarchical clustering, K-means clustering, self-organizing maps, standard finite normal mixture fitting, and a caBIG toolkit (VIsual Statistical Data Analyzer--VISDA), tested on sample clustering of seven published microarray gene expression datasets and one synthetic dataset. We examined the performance of these algorithms in both data-sufficient and data-insufficient cases using quantitative performance measures, including cluster number detection accuracy and mean and standard deviation of partition accuracy. The experimental results showed that VISDA, an interactive coarse-to-fine maximum likelihood fitting algorithm, is a solid performer on most of the datasets, while K-means clustering and self-organizing maps optimized by the mean squared compactness criterion generally produce more stable solutions than the other methods.

Stochastic dynamics of intermittent pore-scale particle motion in three-dimensional porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, V. L.; Dentz, M.; Willmann, M.; Holzner, M.

2017-12-01

A proper understanding of velocity dynamics is key for making transport predictions through porous media at any scale. We study the velocity evolution process from particle dynamics at the pore-scale with particular interest in preasymptotic (non-Fickian) behavior. Experimental measurements from 3-dimensional particle tracking velocimetry are used to obtain Lagrangian velocity statistics for three different types of media heterogeneity. Particle velocities are found to be intermittent in nature, log-normally distributed and non-stationary. We show that these velocity characteristics can be captured with a correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for a random walk in space that is parameterized from velocity distributions. Our simple model is rigorously tested for accurate reproduction of velocity variability in magnitude and frequency. We further show that it captures exceptionally well the preasymptotic mean and mean squared displacement in the ballistic and superdiffusive regimes, and can be extended to determine if and when Fickian behavior will be reached. Our approach reproduces both preasymptotic and asymptotic transport behavior with a single transport model, demonstrating correct description of the fundamental controls of anomalous transport.

Mechanical performance of pyrolytic carbon in prosthetic heart valve applications.

PubMed

Cao, H

1996-06-01

An experimental procedure has been developed for rigorous characterization of the fracture resistance and fatigue crack extension in pyrolytic carbon for prosthetic heart valve application. Experiments were conducted under sustained and cyclic loading in a simulated biological environment using Carbomedics Pyrolite carbon. While the material was shown to have modest fracture toughness, it exhibited excellent resistance to subcritical crack growth. The crack growth kinetics in pyrolytic carbon were formulated using a phenomenological description. A fatigue threshold was observed below which the crack growth rate diminishes. A damage tolerance concept based on fracture mechanics was used to develop an engineering design approach for mechanical heart valve prostheses. In particular, a new quantity, referred to as the safe-life index, was introduced to assess the design adequacy against subcritical crack growth in brittle materials. In addition, a weakest-link statistical description of the fracture strength is provided and used in the design of component proof-tests. It is shown that the structural reliability of mechanical heart valves can be assured by combining effective flaw detection and manufacturing quality control with adequate damage tolerance design.

Solution-Processed Carbon Nanotube True Random Number Generator.

PubMed

Gaviria Rojas, William A; McMorrow, Julian J; Geier, Michael L; Tang, Qianying; Kim, Chris H; Marks, Tobin J; Hersam, Mark C

2017-08-09

With the growing adoption of interconnected electronic devices in consumer and industrial applications, there is an increasing demand for robust security protocols when transmitting and receiving sensitive data. Toward this end, hardware true random number generators (TRNGs), commonly used to create encryption keys, offer significant advantages over software pseudorandom number generators. However, the vast network of devices and sensors envisioned for the "Internet of Things" will require small, low-cost, and mechanically flexible TRNGs with low computational complexity. These rigorous constraints position solution-processed semiconducting single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) as leading candidates for next-generation security devices. Here, we demonstrate the first TRNG using static random access memory (SRAM) cells based on solution-processed SWCNTs that digitize thermal noise to generate random bits. This bit generation strategy can be readily implemented in hardware with minimal transistor and computational overhead, resulting in an output stream that passes standardized statistical tests for randomness. By using solution-processed semiconducting SWCNTs in a low-power, complementary architecture to achieve TRNG, we demonstrate a promising approach for improving the security of printable and flexible electronics.

Bayesian adaptive bandit-based designs using the Gittins index for multi-armed trials with normally distributed endpoints.

PubMed

Smith, Adam L; Villar, Sofía S

2018-01-01

Adaptive designs for multi-armed clinical trials have become increasingly popular recently because of their potential to shorten development times and to increase patient response. However, developing response-adaptive designs that offer patient-benefit while ensuring the resulting trial provides a statistically rigorous and unbiased comparison of the different treatments included is highly challenging. In this paper, the theory of Multi-Armed Bandit Problems is used to define near optimal adaptive designs in the context of a clinical trial with a normally distributed endpoint with known variance. We report the operating characteristics (type I error, power, bias) and patient-benefit of these approaches and alternative designs using simulation studies based on an ongoing trial. These results are then compared to those recently published in the context of Bernoulli endpoints. Many limitations and advantages are similar in both cases but there are also important differences, specially with respect to type I error control. This paper proposes a simulation-based testing procedure to correct for the observed type I error inflation that bandit-based and adaptive rules can induce.

Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, Daniel P.; Norton, Andrew S.; Storm, Daniel J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.; Heisy, Dennis M.

2018-01-01

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection results changed between the two approaches, and incorporating observer knowledge in cause-of-death increased the variability associated with parameter estimates when compared to the traditional approach. These differences between the two approaches can impact reported results, and therefore, it is critical to explicitly incorporate expert knowledge in statistical methods to ensure rigorous inference.

Graphical Descriptives: A Way to Improve Data Transparency and Methodological Rigor in Psychology.

PubMed

Tay, Louis; Parrigon, Scott; Huang, Qiming; LeBreton, James M

2016-09-01

Several calls have recently been issued to the social sciences for enhanced transparency of research processes and enhanced rigor in the methodological treatment of data and data analytics. We propose the use of graphical descriptives (GDs) as one mechanism for responding to both of these calls. GDs provide a way to visually examine data. They serve as quick and efficient tools for checking data distributions, variable relations, and the potential appropriateness of different statistical analyses (e.g., do data meet the minimum assumptions for a particular analytic method). Consequently, we believe that GDs can promote increased transparency in the journal review process, encourage best practices for data analysis, and promote a more inductive approach to understanding psychological data. We illustrate the value of potentially including GDs as a step in the peer-review process and provide a user-friendly online resource (www.graphicaldescriptives.org) for researchers interested in including data visualizations in their research. We conclude with suggestions on how GDs can be expanded and developed to enhance transparency. © The Author(s) 2016.

Sequence-based heuristics for faster annotation of non-coding RNA families.

PubMed

Weinberg, Zasha; Ruzzo, Walter L

2006-01-01

Non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) are functional RNA molecules that do not code for proteins. Covariance Models (CMs) are a useful statistical tool to find new members of an ncRNA gene family in a large genome database, using both sequence and, importantly, RNA secondary structure information. Unfortunately, CM searches are extremely slow. Previously, we created rigorous filters, which provably sacrifice none of a CM's accuracy, while making searches significantly faster for virtually all ncRNA families. However, these rigorous filters make searches slower than heuristics could be. In this paper we introduce profile HMM-based heuristic filters. We show that their accuracy is usually superior to heuristics based on BLAST. Moreover, we compared our heuristics with those used in tRNAscan-SE, whose heuristics incorporate a significant amount of work specific to tRNAs, where our heuristics are generic to any ncRNA. Performance was roughly comparable, so we expect that our heuristics provide a high-quality solution that--unlike family-specific solutions--can scale to hundreds of ncRNA families. The source code is available under GNU Public License at the supplementary web site.

Reconstruction of spatio-temporal temperature from sparse historical records using robust probabilistic principal component regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Goring, Simon

2017-01-01

Scientific records of temperature and precipitation have been kept for several hundred years, but for many areas, only a shorter record exists. To understand climate change, there is a need for rigorous statistical reconstructions of the paleoclimate using proxy data. Paleoclimate proxy data are often sparse, noisy, indirect measurements of the climate process of interest, making each proxy uniquely challenging to model statistically. We reconstruct spatially explicit temperature surfaces from sparse and noisy measurements recorded at historical United States military forts and other observer stations from 1820 to 1894. One common method for reconstructing the paleoclimate from proxy data is principal component regression (PCR). With PCR, one learns a statistical relationship between the paleoclimate proxy data and a set of climate observations that are used as patterns for potential reconstruction scenarios. We explore PCR in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, extending classical PCR in a variety of ways. First, we model the latent principal components probabilistically, accounting for measurement error in the observational data. Next, we extend our method to better accommodate outliers that occur in the proxy data. Finally, we explore alternatives to the truncation of lower-order principal components using different regularization techniques. One fundamental challenge in paleoclimate reconstruction efforts is the lack of out-of-sample data for predictive validation. Cross-validation is of potential value, but is computationally expensive and potentially sensitive to outliers in sparse data scenarios. To overcome the limitations that a lack of out-of-sample records presents, we test our methods using a simulation study, applying proper scoring rules including a computationally efficient approximation to leave-one-out cross-validation using the log score to validate model performance. The result of our analysis is a spatially explicit reconstruction of spatio-temporal temperature from a very sparse historical record.

Density profiles in the Scrape-Off Layer interpreted through filament dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Militello, Fulvio

2017-10-01

We developed a new theoretical framework to clarify the relation between radial Scrape-Off Layer density profiles and the fluctuations that generate them. The framework provides an interpretation of the experimental features of the profiles and of the turbulence statistics on the basis of simple properties of the filaments, such as their radial motion and their draining towards the divertor. L-mode and inter-ELM filaments are described as a Poisson process in which each event is independent and modelled with a wave function of amplitude and width statistically distributed according to experimental observations and evolving according to fluid equations. We will rigorously show that radially accelerating filaments, less efficient parallel exhaust and also a statistical distribution of their radial velocity can contribute to induce flatter profiles in the far SOL and therefore enhance plasma-wall interactions. A quite general result of our analysis is the resiliency of this non-exponential nature of the profiles and the increase of the relative fluctuation amplitude towards the wall, as experimentally observed. According to the framework, profile broadening at high fueling rates can be caused by interactions with neutrals (e.g. charge exchange) in the divertor or by a significant radial acceleration of the filaments. The framework assumptions were tested with 3D numerical simulations of seeded SOL filaments based on a two fluid model. In particular, filaments interact through the electrostatic field they generate only when they are in close proximity (separation comparable to their width in the drift plane), thus justifying our independence hypothesis. In addition, we will discuss how isolated filament motion responds to variations in the plasma conditions, and specifically divertor conditions. Finally, using the theoretical framework we will reproduce and interpret experimental results obtained on JET, MAST and HL-2A.

Clinical Trials With Large Numbers of Variables: Important Advantages of Canonical Analysis.

PubMed

Cleophas, Ton J

2016-01-01

Canonical analysis assesses the combined effects of a set of predictor variables on a set of outcome variables, but it is little used in clinical trials despite the omnipresence of multiple variables. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of canonical analysis as compared with traditional multivariate methods using multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA). As an example, a simulated data file with 12 gene expression levels and 4 drug efficacy scores was used. The correlation coefficient between the 12 predictor and 4 outcome variables was 0.87 (P = 0.0001) meaning that 76% of the variability in the outcome variables was explained by the 12 covariates. Repeated testing after the removal of 5 unimportant predictor and 1 outcome variable produced virtually the same overall result. The MANCOVA identified identical unimportant variables, but it was unable to provide overall statistics. (1) Canonical analysis is remarkable, because it can handle many more variables than traditional multivariate methods such as MANCOVA can. (2) At the same time, it accounts for the relative importance of the separate variables, their interactions and differences in units. (3) Canonical analysis provides overall statistics of the effects of sets of variables, whereas traditional multivariate methods only provide the statistics of the separate variables. (4) Unlike other methods for combining the effects of multiple variables such as factor analysis/partial least squares, canonical analysis is scientifically entirely rigorous. (5) Limitations include that it is less flexible than factor analysis/partial least squares, because only 2 sets of variables are used and because multiple solutions instead of one is offered. We do hope that this article will stimulate clinical investigators to start using this remarkable method.

Key considerations for the experimental training and evaluation of cancer odour detection dogs: lessons learnt from a double-blind, controlled trial of prostate cancer detection

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cancer detection using sniffer dogs is a potential technology for clinical use and research. Our study sought to determine whether dogs could be trained to discriminate the odour of urine from men with prostate cancer from controls, using rigorous testing procedures and well-defined samples from a major research hospital. Methods We attempted to train ten dogs by initially rewarding them for finding and indicating individual prostate cancer urine samples (Stage 1). If dogs were successful in Stage 1, we then attempted to train them to discriminate prostate cancer samples from controls (Stage 2). The number of samples used to train each dog varied depending on their individual progress. Overall, 50 unique prostate cancer and 67 controls were collected and used during training. Dogs that passed Stage 2 were tested for their ability to discriminate 15 (Test 1) or 16 (Tests 2 and 3) unfamiliar prostate cancer samples from 45 (Test 1) or 48 (Tests 2 and 3) unfamiliar controls under double-blind conditions. Results Three dogs reached training Stage 2 and two of these learnt to discriminate potentially familiar prostate cancer samples from controls. However, during double-blind tests using new samples the two dogs did not indicate prostate cancer samples more frequently than expected by chance (Dog A sensitivity 0.13, specificity 0.71, Dog B sensitivity 0.25, specificity 0.75). The other dogs did not progress past Stage 1 as they did not have optimal temperaments for the sensitive odour discrimination training. Conclusions Although two dogs appeared to have learnt to select prostate cancer samples during training, they did not generalise on a prostate cancer odour during robust double-blind tests involving new samples. Our study illustrates that these rigorous tests are vital to avoid drawing misleading conclusions about the abilities of dogs to indicate certain odours. Dogs may memorise the individual odours of large numbers of training samples rather than generalise on a common odour. The results do not exclude the possibility that dogs could be trained to detect prostate cancer. We recommend that canine olfactory memory is carefully considered in all future studies and rigorous double-blind methods used to avoid confounding effects. PMID:24575737

Sign Language Studies with Chimpanzees and Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Cantfort, Thomas E.; Rimpau, James B.

1982-01-01

Reviews methodologies of sign language studies with chimpanzees and compares major findings of those studies with studies of human children. Considers relevance of input conditions for language acquisition, evidence used to demonstrate linguistic achievements, and application of rigorous testing procedures in developmental psycholinguistics.…

Experimental evaluation of rigor mortis. V. Effect of various temperatures on the evolution of rigor mortis.

PubMed

Krompecher, T

1981-01-01

Objective measurements were carried out to study the evolution of rigor mortis on rats at various temperatures. Our experiments showed that: (1) at 6 degrees C rigor mortis reaches full development between 48 and 60 hours post mortem, and is resolved at 168 hours post mortem; (2) at 24 degrees C rigor mortis reaches full development at 5 hours post mortem, and is resolved at 16 hours post mortem; (3) at 37 degrees C rigor mortis reaches full development at 3 hours post mortem, and is resolved at 6 hours post mortem; (4) the intensity of rigor mortis grows with increase in temperature (difference between values obtained at 24 degrees C and 37 degrees C); and (5) and 6 degrees C a "cold rigidity" was found, in addition to and independent of rigor mortis.

Two-Year Trends of Taxane-Induced Neuropathy in Women Enrolled in a Randomized Trial of Acetyl-L-Carnitine (SWOG S0715).

PubMed

Hershman, Dawn L; Unger, Joseph M; Crew, Katherine D; Till, Cathee; Greenlee, Heather; Minasian, Lori M; Moinpour, Carol M; Lew, Danika L; Fehrenbacher, Louis; Wade, James L; Wong, Siu-Fun; Fisch, Michael J; Lynn Henry, N; Albain, Kathy S

2018-06-01

Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) is a common and disabling side effect of taxanes. Acetyl-L-carnitine (ALC) was unexpectedly found to increase CIPN in a randomized trial. We investigated the long-term patterns of CIPN among patients in this trial. S0715 was a randomized, double-blind, multicenter trial comparing ALC (1000 mg three times a day) with placebo for 24 weeks in women undergoing adjuvant taxane-based chemotherapy for breast cancer. CIPN was measured by the 11-item neurotoxicity (NTX) component of the FACT-Taxane scale at weeks 12, 24, 36, 52, and 104. We examined NTX scores over two years using linear mixed models for longitudinal data. Individual time points were examined using linear regression. Regression analyses included stratification factors and the baseline score as covariates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Four-hundred nine subjects were eligible for evaluation. Patients receiving ALC had a statistically significantly (P = .01) greater reduction in NTX scores (worse CIPN) of -1.39 points (95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.48 to -0.30) than the placebo group. These differences were particularly evident at weeks 24 (-1.68, 95% CI = -3.02 to -0.33), 36 (-1.37, 95% CI = -2.69 to -0.04), and 52 (-1.83, 95% CI = -3.35 to -0.32). At 104 weeks, 39.5% on the ALC arm and 34.4% on the placebo arm reported a five-point (10%) decrease from baseline. For both treatment groups, 104-week NTX scores were statistically significantly different compared with baseline (P < .001). For both groups, NTX scores were reduced from baseline and remained persistently low. Twenty-four weeks of ALC therapy resulted in statistically significantly worse CIPN over two years. Understanding the mechanism of this persistent effect may inform prevention and treatment strategies. Until then, the potential efficacy and harms of commonly used supplements should be rigorously studied.

Using qualitative methods to improve questionnaires for Spanish speakers: assessing face validity of a food behavior checklist.

PubMed

Banna, Jinan C; Vera Becerra, Luz E; Kaiser, Lucia L; Townsend, Marilyn S

2010-01-01

Development of outcome measures relevant to health nutrition behaviors requires a rigorous process of testing and revision. Whereas researchers often report performance of quantitative data collection to assess questionnaire validity and reliability, qualitative testing procedures are often overlooked. This report outlines a procedure for assessing face validity of a Spanish-language dietary assessment tool. Reviewing the literature produced no rigorously validated Spanish-language food behavior assessment tools for the US Department of Agriculture's food assistance and education programs. In response to this need, this study evaluated the face validity of a Spanish-language food behavior checklist adapted from a 16-item English version of a food behavior checklist shown to be valid and reliable for limited-resource English speakers. The English version was translated using rigorous methods involving initial translation by one party and creation of five possible versions. Photos were modified based on client input and new photos were taken as necessary. A sample of low-income, Spanish-speaking women completed cognitive interviews (n=20). Spanish translation experts (n=7) fluent in both languages and familiar with both cultures made minor modifications but essentially approved client preferences. The resulting checklist generated a readability score of 93, indicating low reading difficulty. The Spanish-language checklist has adequate face validity in the target population and is ready for further validation using convergent measures. At the conclusion of testing, this instrument may be used to evaluate nutrition education interventions in California. These qualitative procedures provide a framework for designing evaluation tools for low-literate audiences participating in the US Department of Agriculture food assistance and education programs. Copyright 2010 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Qualitative Methods to Improve Questionnaires for Spanish Speakers: Assessing Face Validity of a Food Behavior Checklist

PubMed Central

BANNA, JINAN C.; VERA BECERRA, LUZ E.; KAISER, LUCIA L.; TOWNSEND, MARILYN S.

2015-01-01

Development of outcome measures relevant to health nutrition behaviors requires a rigorous process of testing and revision. Whereas researchers often report performance of quantitative data collection to assess questionnaire validity and reliability, qualitative testing procedures are often overlooked. This report outlines a procedure for assessing face validity of a Spanish-language dietary assessment tool. Reviewing the literature produced no rigorously validated Spanish-language food behavior assessment tools for the US Department of Agriculture’s food assistance and education programs. In response to this need, this study evaluated the face validity of a Spanish-language food behavior checklist adapted from a 16-item English version of a food behavior checklist shown to be valid and reliable for limited-resource English speakers. The English version was translated using rigorous methods involving initial translation by one party and creation of five possible versions. Photos were modified based on client input and new photos were taken as necessary. A sample of low-income, Spanish-speaking women completed cognitive interviews (n=20). Spanish translation experts (n=7) fluent in both languages and familiar with both cultures made minor modifications but essentially approved client preferences. The resulting checklist generated a readability score of 93, indicating low reading difficulty. The Spanish-language checklist has adequate face validity in the target population and is ready for further validation using convergent measures. At the conclusion of testing, this instrument may be used to evaluate nutrition education interventions in California. These qualitative procedures provide a framework for designing evaluation tools for low-literate audiences participating in the US Department of Agriculture food assistance and education programs. PMID:20102831

The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

PubMed

Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

2015-01-01

Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P < .001 and P = .001, respectively). Discrimination remained excellent when only elective procedures were considered. There was no evidence of miscalibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. We have developed accurate models to assess risk of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Academic Rigor in the College Classroom: Two Federal Commissions Strive to Define Rigor in the Past 70 Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Francis, Clay

2018-01-01

Historic notions of academic rigor usually follow from critiques of the system--we often define our goals for academically rigorous work through the lens of our shortcomings. This chapter discusses how the Truman Commission in 1947 and the Spellings Commission in 2006 shaped the way we think about academic rigor in today's context.

Entropy production in mesoscopic stochastic thermodynamics: nonequilibrium kinetic cycles driven by chemical potentials, temperatures, and mechanical forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Hong; Kjelstrup, Signe; Kolomeisky, Anatoly B.; Bedeaux, Dick

2016-04-01

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics (NET) investigates processes in systems out of global equilibrium. On a mesoscopic level, it provides a statistical dynamic description of various complex phenomena such as chemical reactions, ion transport, diffusion, thermochemical, thermomechanical and mechanochemical fluxes. In the present review, we introduce a mesoscopic stochastic formulation of NET by analyzing entropy production in several simple examples. The fundamental role of nonequilibrium steady-state cycle kinetics is emphasized. The statistical mechanics of Onsager’s reciprocal relations in this context is elucidated. Chemomechanical, thermomechanical, and enzyme-catalyzed thermochemical energy transduction processes are discussed. It is argued that mesoscopic stochastic NET in phase space provides a rigorous mathematical basis of fundamental concepts needed for understanding complex processes in chemistry, physics and biology. This theory is also relevant for nanoscale technological advances.

How Osmolytes Counteract Pressure Denaturation on a Molecular Scale.

PubMed

Shimizu, Seishi; Smith, Paul E

2017-08-18

Life in the deep sea exposes enzymes to high hydrostatic pressure, which decreases their stability. For survival, deep sea organisms tend to accumulate various osmolytes, most notably trimethylamine N-oxide used by fish, to counteract pressure denaturation. However, exactly how these osmolytes work remains unclear. Here, a rigorous statistical thermodynamics approach is used to clarify the mechanism of osmoprotection. It is shown that the weak, nonspecific, and dynamic interactions of water and osmolytes with proteins can be characterized only statistically, and that the competition between protein-osmolyte and protein-water interactions is crucial in determining conformational stability. Osmoprotection is driven by a stronger exclusion of osmolytes from the denatured protein than from the native conformation, and water distribution has no significant effect on these changes at low osmolyte concentrations. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Weak Value Amplification is Suboptimal for Estimation and Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrie, Christopher; Combes, Joshua

2014-01-01

We show by using statistically rigorous arguments that the technique of weak value amplification does not perform better than standard statistical techniques for the tasks of single parameter estimation and signal detection. Specifically, we prove that postselection, a necessary ingredient for weak value amplification, decreases estimation accuracy and, moreover, arranging for anomalously large weak values is a suboptimal strategy. In doing so, we explicitly provide the optimal estimator, which in turn allows us to identify the optimal experimental arrangement to be the one in which all outcomes have equal weak values (all as small as possible) and the initial state of the meter is the maximal eigenvalue of the square of the system observable. Finally, we give precise quantitative conditions for when weak measurement (measurements without postselection or anomalously large weak values) can mitigate the effect of uncharacterized technical noise in estimation.

Efficacy of Curcuma for Treatment of Osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Perkins, Kimberly; Sahy, William; Beckett, Robert D.

2016-01-01

The objective of this review is to identify, summarize, and evaluate clinical trials to determine the efficacy of curcuma in the treatment of osteoarthritis. A literature search for interventional studies assessing efficacy of curcuma was performed, resulting in 8 clinical trials. Studies have investigated the effect of curcuma on pain, stiffness, and functionality in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Curcuma-containing products consistently demonstrated statistically significant improvement in osteoarthritis-related endpoints compared with placebo, with one exception. When compared with active control, curcuma-containing products were similar to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and potentially to glucosamine. While statistical significant differences in outcomes were reported in a majority of studies, the small magnitude of effect and presence of major study limitations hinder application of these results. Further rigorous studies are needed prior to recommending curcuma as an effective alternative therapy for knee osteoarthritis. PMID:26976085

Positive Selection in CD8+ T-Cell Epitopes of Influenza Virus Nucleoprotein Revealed by a Comparative Analysis of Human and Swine Viral Lineages.

PubMed

Machkovech, Heather M; Bedford, Trevor; Suchard, Marc A; Bloom, Jesse D

2015-11-01

Numerous experimental studies have demonstrated that CD8(+) T cells contribute to immunity against influenza by limiting viral replication. It is therefore surprising that rigorous statistical tests have failed to find evidence of positive selection in the epitopes targeted by CD8(+) T cells. Here we use a novel computational approach to test for selection in CD8(+) T-cell epitopes. We define all epitopes in the nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix protein (M1) with experimentally identified human CD8(+) T-cell responses and then compare the evolution of these epitopes in parallel lineages of human and swine influenza viruses that have been diverging since roughly 1918. We find a significant enrichment of substitutions that alter human CD8(+) T-cell epitopes in NP of human versus swine influenza virus, consistent with the idea that these epitopes are under positive selection. Furthermore, we show that epitope-altering substitutions in human influenza virus NP are enriched on the trunk versus the branches of the phylogenetic tree, indicating that viruses that acquire these mutations have a selective advantage. However, even in human influenza virus NP, sites in T-cell epitopes evolve more slowly than do nonepitope sites, presumably because these epitopes are under stronger inherent functional constraint. Overall, our work demonstrates that there is clear selection from CD8(+) T cells in human influenza virus NP and illustrates how comparative analyses of viral lineages from different hosts can identify positive selection that is otherwise obscured by strong functional constraint. There is a strong interest in correlates of anti-influenza immunity that are protective against diverse virus strains. CD8(+) T cells provide such broad immunity, since they target conserved viral proteins. An important question is whether T-cell immunity is sufficiently strong to drive influenza virus evolution. Although many studies have shown that T cells limit viral replication in animal models and are associated with decreased symptoms in humans, no studies have proven with statistical significance that influenza virus evolves under positive selection to escape T cells. Here we use comparisons of human and swine influenza viruses to rigorously demonstrate that human influenza virus evolves under pressure to fix mutations in the nucleoprotein that promote escape from T cells. We further show that viruses with these mutations have a selective advantage since they are preferentially located on the "trunk" of the phylogenetic tree. Overall, our results show that CD8(+) T cells targeting nucleoprotein play an important role in shaping influenza virus evolution. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Emergency cricothyrotomy for trismus caused by instantaneous rigor in cardiac arrest patients.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Hee; Jung, Koo Young

2012-07-01

Instantaneous rigor as muscle stiffening occurring in the moment of death (or cardiac arrest) can be confused with rigor mortis. If trismus is caused by instantaneous rigor, orotracheal intubation is impossible and a surgical airway should be secured. Here, we report 2 patients who had emergency cricothyrotomy for trismus caused by instantaneous rigor. This case report aims to help physicians understand instantaneous rigor and to emphasize the importance of securing a surgical airway quickly on the occurrence of trismus. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SPA- STATISTICAL PACKAGE FOR TIME AND FREQUENCY DOMAIN ANALYSIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brownlow, J. D.

1994-01-01

The need for statistical analysis often arises when data is in the form of a time series. This type of data is usually a collection of numerical observations made at specified time intervals. Two kinds of analysis may be performed on the data. First, the time series may be treated as a set of independent observations using a time domain analysis to derive the usual statistical properties including the mean, variance, and distribution form. Secondly, the order and time intervals of the observations may be used in a frequency domain analysis to examine the time series for periodicities. In almost all practical applications, the collected data is actually a mixture of the desired signal and a noise signal which is collected over a finite time period with a finite precision. Therefore, any statistical calculations and analyses are actually estimates. The Spectrum Analysis (SPA) program was developed to perform a wide range of statistical estimation functions. SPA can provide the data analyst with a rigorous tool for performing time and frequency domain studies. In a time domain statistical analysis the SPA program will compute the mean variance, standard deviation, mean square, and root mean square. It also lists the data maximum, data minimum, and the number of observations included in the sample. In addition, a histogram of the time domain data is generated, a normal curve is fit to the histogram, and a goodness-of-fit test is performed. These time domain calculations may be performed on both raw and filtered data. For a frequency domain statistical analysis the SPA program computes the power spectrum, cross spectrum, coherence, phase angle, amplitude ratio, and transfer function. The estimates of the frequency domain parameters may be smoothed with the use of Hann-Tukey, Hamming, Barlett, or moving average windows. Various digital filters are available to isolate data frequency components. Frequency components with periods longer than the data collection interval are removed by least-squares detrending. As many as ten channels of data may be analyzed at one time. Both tabular and plotted output may be generated by the SPA program. This program is written in FORTRAN IV and has been implemented on a CDC 6000 series computer with a central memory requirement of approximately 142K (octal) of 60 bit words. This core requirement can be reduced by segmentation of the program. The SPA program was developed in 1978.

The average receiver operating characteristic curve in multireader multicase imaging studies

PubMed Central

Samuelson, F W

2014-01-01

Objective: In multireader, multicase (MRMC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) studies for evaluating medical imaging systems, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is often used as a summary metric. Owing to the limitations of AUC, plotting the average ROC curve to accompany the rigorous statistical inference on AUC is recommended. The objective of this article is to investigate methods for generating the average ROC curve from ROC curves of individual readers. Methods: We present both a non-parametric method and a parametric method for averaging ROC curves that produce a ROC curve, the area under which is equal to the average AUC of individual readers (a property we call area preserving). We use hypothetical examples, simulated data and a real-world imaging data set to illustrate these methods and their properties. Results: We show that our proposed methods are area preserving. We also show that the method of averaging the ROC parameters, either the conventional bi-normal parameters (a, b) or the proper bi-normal parameters (c, da), is generally not area preserving and may produce a ROC curve that is intuitively not an average of multiple curves. Conclusion: Our proposed methods are useful for making plots of average ROC curves in MRMC studies as a companion to the rigorous statistical inference on the AUC end point. The software implementing these methods is freely available from the authors. Advances in knowledge: Methods for generating the average ROC curve in MRMC ROC studies are formally investigated. The area-preserving criterion we defined is useful to evaluate such methods. PMID:24884728

Development and Justification of a Risk Evaluation Matrix To Guide Chemical Testing Necessary To Select and Qualify Plastic Components Used in Production Systems for Pharmaceutical Products.

PubMed

Jenke, Dennis

2015-01-01

An accelerating trend in the pharmaceutical industry is the use of plastic components in systems used to produce an active pharmaceutical ingredient or a finished drug product. If the active pharmaceutical ingredient, the finished drug product, or any solution used to generate them (for example, a process stream such as media, buffers, eluents, and the like) is contacted by a plastic component at any time during the production process, substances leached from the component may accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product, affecting its safety and/or efficacy. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk evaluation matrix that is used to determine the amount and rigor of component testing necessary and appropriate to establish that the component is chemically suitable for its intended use. By considering key properties of the component, the contact medium, the contact conditions, and the active pharmaceutical ingredient's or finished drug product's clinical conditions of use, use of the risk evaluation matrix produces a risk score whose magnitude reflects the accumulated risk that the component will interact with the contact solution to such an extent that component-related extractables will accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product as leachables at levels sufficiently high to adversely affect user safety. The magnitude of the risk score establishes the amount and rigor of the testing that is required to select and qualify the component, and such testing is broadly grouped into three categories: baseline assessment, general testing, and full testing (extractables profiling). Production suites used to generate pharmaceuticals can include plastic components. It is possible that substances in the components could leach into manufacturing solutions and accumulate in the pharmaceutical product. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk evaluation matrix that can be used to determine the amount and rigor of component testing that may be necessary and appropriate to establish that the component is suitable for its intended use. Use of the risk evaluation matrix allows a user of a component to determine the type and amount of testing that should be performed to establish the patient safety risk associated with using that component in order to manufacture an active pharmaceutical ingredient or a finished drug product. © PDA, Inc. 2015.

Study of the quality characteristics in cold-smoked salmon (Salmo salar) originating from pre- or post-rigor raw material.

PubMed

Birkeland, S; Akse, L

2010-01-01

Improved slaughtering procedures in the salmon industry have caused a delayed onset of rigor mortis and, thus, a potential for pre-rigor secondary processing. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of rigor status at time of processing on quality traits color, texture, sensory, microbiological, in injection salted, and cold-smoked Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Injection of pre-rigor fillets caused a significant (P<0.001) contraction (-7.9%± 0.9%) on the caudal-cranial axis. No significant differences in instrumental color (a*, b*, C*, or h*), texture (hardness), or sensory traits (aroma, color, taste, and texture) were observed between pre- or post-rigor processed fillets; however, post-rigor (1477 ± 38 g) fillets had a significant (P>0.05) higher fracturability than pre-rigor fillets (1369 ± 71 g). Pre-rigor fillets were significantly (P<0.01) lighter, L*, (39.7 ± 1.0) than post-rigor fillets (37.8 ± 0.8) and had significantly lower (P<0.05) aerobic plate count (APC), 1.4 ± 0.4 log CFU/g against 2.6 ± 0.6 log CFU/g, and psychrotrophic count (PC), 2.1 ± 0.2 log CFU/g against 3.0 ± 0.5 log CFU/g, than post-rigor processed fillets. This study showed that similar quality characteristics can be obtained in cold-smoked products processed either pre- or post-rigor when using suitable injection salting protocols and smoking techniques. © 2010 Institute of Food Technologists®

Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

PubMed

Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

2011-09-10

In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Haplotypic Analysis of Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium Data

PubMed Central

Browning, Brian L.; Browning, Sharon R.

2008-01-01

We applied a recently developed multilocus association testing method (localized haplotype clustering) to Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium data (14,000 cases of seven common diseases and 3,000 shared controls genotyped on the Affymetrix 500K array). After rigorous data quality filtering, we identified three disease-associated loci with strong statistical support from localized haplotype cluster tests but with only marginal significance in single marker tests. These loci are chromosomes 10p15.1 with type 1 diabetes (p = 5.1 × 10-9), 12q15 with type 2 diabetes (p = 1.9 × 10-7) and 15q26.2 with hypertension (p = 2.8 × 10-8). We also detected the association of chromosome 9p21.3 with type 2 diabetes (p = 2.8 × 10-8), although this locus did not pass our stringent genotype quality filters. The association of 10p15.1 with type 1 diabetes and 9p21.3 with type 2 diabetes have both been replicated in other studies using independent data sets. Overall, localized haplotype cluster analysis had better success detecting disease associated variants than a previous single-marker analysis of imputed HapMap SNPs. We found that stringent application of quality score thresholds to genotype data substantially reduced false-positive results arising from genotype error. In addition, we demonstrate that it is possible to simultaneously phase 16,000 individuals genotyped on genome-wide data (450K markers) using the Beagle software package. PMID:18224336

An information system to improve financial management, resource allocation and activity planning: evaluation results.

PubMed

Ruland, C M; Ravn, I H

2001-01-01

An important strategy for improving resource management and cost containment in health care is to develop information systems that assist hospital managers in financial management, resource allocation, and activity planning. A crucial part of such development is a rigorous evaluation to assess whether the system accomplishes it's intended goals. To evaluate CLASSICA, a Decision Support System (DSS), that assists nurse managers in financial management, resource allocation, staffing, and activity planning. Using a pre-post test design with control units, CLASSICA was evaluated in four test units. Baseline data and simultaneous parallel measures were collected prior to system implementation at test sites and control units. Using expense reports, staffing and financial statistics, surveys, interviews with nurse managers, and logs as data sources, CLASSICA was evaluated on: cost reduction, quality of management information; usefulness as decision support for improved financial management and decision-making; user satisfaction; and ease of use. Evaluation results showed a 41% reduction in expenditures for overtime and extra hours as compared to a 1.8% reduction in control units during the same time period. Users reported a significant improvement in management information; nurse managers stated that they had gained control over costs. The system helped them analyze the relationships between patient activity staffing, and cost of care. Users reported high satisfaction with the system, the information and decision support it provided, and its ease of use. These results suggest that CLASSICA is a DSS that successfully assists nurse managers in cost effective management of their units.

Prevalence of HIV among people with physical disabilities in Rwanda.

PubMed

Munymana, J B; M'kumbuzi, V R P; Mapira, H T; Nzabanterura, I; Uwamariyai, I; Shema, E

2014-01-01

To determine the prevalence of HIV among persons with physical disabilities in Rwanda. Across-sectional HIV diagnostic study. A national referral rehabilitation centre in Rwanda. Persons aged 5 to 49 years with lower or upper limb impairments that were obtaining rehabilitation services at the centre. Blood samples were collected from the subjects who voluntarily accepted to participate in the study. Blood samples (4mls) were collected in vacutainer tubes and centrifuged to obtain serum which was analyzed using standard HIV rapid tests-determine HIV-1/2 Ab/Ag, SD-Bioline and UNI-Gold Recombigen HIV as a tie-breaker. The HIV status of participants--negative or positive. Descriptive statistics were computed to characterize the sample and proportions for the HIV test results. All one hundred and fifty-seven subjects, 59 (37.6%) male and 98 (62.4%) female, completed the study. The HIV prevalence obtained was 5.73%. All participants that tested positive were female and all tested positive for HIV-1. The prevalence obtained was higher than the population prevalence of 3.0% reported for Rwanda. Targeted HIV prevention is required for PWDs in Rwanda, with at least as much rigor as programs targeted towards the general population. Further, this should address the wide range of gender inequalities that make women particularly vulnerable to HIV. Further research needs to be conducted on a larger sample that draws participants from non-institutional settings and from other disability categories; as well as to study more specifically, the risk factors for HIV infection among PWDs in Rwanda.

The 1,5-H-shift in 1-butoxy: A case study in the rigorous implementation of transition state theory for a multirotamer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vereecken, Luc; Peeters, Jozef

2003-09-01

The rigorous implementation of transition state theory (TST) for a reaction system with multiple reactant rotamers and multiple transition state conformers is discussed by way of a statistical rate analysis of the 1,5-H-shift in 1-butoxy radicals, a prototype reaction for the important class of H-shift reactions in atmospheric chemistry. Several approaches for deriving a multirotamer TST expression are treated: oscillator versus (hindered) internal rotor models; distinguishable versus indistinguishable atoms; and direct count methods versus degeneracy factors calculated by (simplified) direct count methods or from symmetry numbers and number of enantiomers, where applicable. It is shown that the various treatments are fully consistent, even if the TST expressions themselves appear different. The 1-butoxy H-shift reaction is characterized quantum chemically using B3LYP-DFT; the performance of this level of theory is compared to other methods. Rigorous application of the multirotamer TST methodology in an harmonic oscillator approximation based on this data yields a rate coefficient of k(298 K,1 atm)=1.4×105 s-1, and an Arrhenius expression k(T,1 atm)=1.43×1011 exp(-8.17 kcal mol-1/RT) s-1, which both closely match the experimental recommendations in the literature. The T-dependence is substantially influenced by the multirotamer treatment, as well as by the tunneling and fall-off corrections. The present results are compared to those of simplified TST calculations based solely on the properties of the lowest energy 1-butoxy rotamer.

Human X-chromosome inactivation pattern distributions fit a model of genetically influenced choice better than models of completely random choice

PubMed Central

Renault, Nisa K E; Pritchett, Sonja M; Howell, Robin E; Greer, Wenda L; Sapienza, Carmen; Ørstavik, Karen Helene; Hamilton, David C

2013-01-01

In eutherian mammals, one X-chromosome in every XX somatic cell is transcriptionally silenced through the process of X-chromosome inactivation (XCI). Females are thus functional mosaics, where some cells express genes from the paternal X, and the others from the maternal X. The relative abundance of the two cell populations (X-inactivation pattern, XIP) can have significant medical implications for some females. In mice, the ‘choice' of which X to inactivate, maternal or paternal, in each cell of the early embryo is genetically influenced. In humans, the timing of XCI choice and whether choice occurs completely randomly or under a genetic influence is debated. Here, we explore these questions by analysing the distribution of XIPs in large populations of normal females. Models were generated to predict XIP distributions resulting from completely random or genetically influenced choice. Each model describes the discrete primary distribution at the onset of XCI, and the continuous secondary distribution accounting for changes to the XIP as a result of development and ageing. Statistical methods are used to compare models with empirical data from Danish and Utah populations. A rigorous data treatment strategy maximises information content and allows for unbiased use of unphased XIP data. The Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and likelihood ratio tests indicate that a model of genetically influenced XCI choice better fits the empirical data than models of completely random choice. PMID:23652377