Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

PubMed

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

Observed changes in cardiovascular risk factors among high-risk middle-aged men who received lifestyle counselling: a 5-year follow-up.

PubMed

Siren, Reijo; Eriksson, Johan G; Vanhanen, Hannu

2016-12-01

To examine the long-term impact of health counselling among middle-aged men at high risk of CVD. An observational study with a 5-year follow-up. All men aged 40 years in Helsinki have been invited to a visit to evaluate CVD risk from 2006 onwards. A modified version of the North Karelia project risk tool (CVD risk score) served to assess the risk. High-risk men received lifestyle counselling based on their individual risk profile in 2006 and were invited to a follow-up visit in 2011. Of the 389 originally high-risk men, 159 participated in the follow-up visits in 2011. Based on their follow-up in relation the further risk communication, we divided the participants into three groups: primary health care, occupational health care and no control visits. Lifestyle and CVD risk score change. All groups showed improvements in lifestyles. The CVD risk score decreased the most in the group that continued the risk communication visits in their primary health care centre (6.1 to 4.8 [95% CI -1.6 to -0.6]) compared to those who continued risk communication visits in their occupational health care (6.0 to 5.4 [95% CI -1.3 to 0.3]), and to those with no risk communication visits (6.0 to 5.9 [95% CI -0.5 to 0.4]). These findings indicate that individualized lifestyle counselling improves health behaviour and reduces total CVD risk among middle-aged men at high risk of CVD. Sustained improvement in risk factor status requires ongoing risk communication with health care providers. KEY POINTS Studies of short duration have shown that lifestyle changes reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease among high-risk individuals. Sustaining these lifestyle changes and maintaining the lower disease risk attained can prove challenging. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and individualized health counselling for high-risk men, when implemented in primary health care, have the potential to initiate lifestyle changes that support risk reduction. Attaining a sustainable reduction in CVD risk requires a willingness to engage in risk-related communication from both health care providers and the individual at high risk.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Risk behaviours among early adolescents: risk and protective factors.

PubMed

Wang, Ruey-Hsia; Hsu, Hsiu-Yueh; Lin, Shu-Yuan; Cheng, Chung-Ping; Lee, Shu-Li

2010-02-01

This paper is a report of a study conducted to examine the influence of risk/protective factors on risk behaviours of early adolescents and whether protective factors moderate their impact. An understanding of how risk and protective factors operate to influence risk behaviours of early adolescents will better prepare nurses to perform interventions appropriately to reduce risk behaviours of early adolescents. A cross-sectional study was carried out, based on a sample of public junior high schools (from 7th to 9th grades) in one city and one county in Taiwan. An anonymous questionnaire designed to measure five risk factors, six protective factors and risk behaviours was administered from October 2006 to March 2007. Data from 878 students were used for the present analysis. Pearson's correlations, anova with random effect models, and generalized linear models were used to analyse the statistically significant explanatory variables for risk behaviours. Gender, perceived father's risk behaviour, perceived mother's risk behaviour, health self-efficacy, interaction of health self-efficacy and perceived peers' risk behaviour, and interaction of emotional regulation and perceived peers' risk behaviour were statistically significant explanatory variables of risk behaviours. Health self-efficacy and emotional regulation moderated the negative effects of peers' perceived risk behaviour on risk behaviours. All protective factors were negative statistically correlated with risk behaviours, and all risk factors positively statistically correlated with risk behaviours. Male adolescents should be considered an at-risk group for risk behaviour intervention. Nurses could provide early adolescents with training regarding health self-efficacy improvement, self-esteem enhancement, emotional regulation skills to reduce their risk behaviours.

Why Breast Cancer Risk by the Numbers Is Not Enough: Evaluation of a Decision Aid in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Numerate Women

PubMed Central

Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham; Aguirre, Alejandra; Smalletz, Cindy; David, Raven; Crew, Katherine

2015-01-01

Background Breast cancer risk assessment including genetic testing can be used to classify people into different risk groups with screening and preventive interventions tailored to the needs of each group, yet the implementation of risk-stratified breast cancer prevention in primary care settings is complex. Objective To address barriers to breast cancer risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention strategies in primary care settings, we developed a Web-based decision aid, RealRisks, that aims to improve preference-based decision-making for breast cancer prevention, particularly in low-numerate women. Methods RealRisks incorporates experience-based dynamic interfaces to communicate risk aimed at reducing inaccurate risk perceptions, with modules on breast cancer risk, genetic testing, and chemoprevention that are tailored. To begin, participants learn about risk by interacting with two games of experience-based risk interfaces, demonstrating average 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. We conducted four focus groups in English-speaking women (age ≥18 years), a questionnaire completed before and after interacting with the decision aid, and a semistructured group discussion. We employed a mixed-methods approach to assess accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk and acceptability of RealRisks. The qualitative analysis of the semistructured discussions assessed understanding of risk, risk models, and risk appropriate prevention strategies. Results Among 34 participants, mean age was 53.4 years, 62% (21/34) were Hispanic, and 41% (14/34) demonstrated low numeracy. According to the Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool (BCRAT), the mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk were 1.11% (SD 0.77) and 7.46% (SD 2.87), respectively. After interacting with RealRisks, the difference in perceived and estimated breast cancer risk according to BCRAT improved for 5-year risk (P=.008). In the qualitative analysis, we identified potential barriers to adopting risk-appropriate breast cancer prevention strategies, including uncertainty about breast cancer risk and risk models, distrust toward the health care system, and perception that risk assessment to pre-screen women for eligibility for genetic testing may be viewed as rationing access to care. Conclusions In a multi-ethnic population, we demonstrated a significant improvement in accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk after exposure to RealRisks. However, we identified potential barriers that suggest that accurate risk perceptions will not suffice as the sole basis to support informed decision making and the acceptance of risk-appropriate prevention strategies. Findings will inform the iterative design of the RealRisks decision aid. PMID:26175193

The Distinct Role of Comparative Risk Perceptions in a Breast Cancer Prevention Program

PubMed Central

Dillard, Amanda J.; Ubel, Peter A.; Smith, Dylan M.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Nair, Vijay; Derry, Holly A.; Zhang, Aijun; Pitsch, Rosemarie K.; Alford, Sharon Hensley; McClure, Jennifer B.; Fagerlin, Angela

2013-01-01

Background Comparative risk perceptions may rival other types of information in terms of effects on health behavior decisions. Purpose We examined associations between comparative risk perceptions, affect, and behavior while controlling for absolute risk perceptions and actual risk. Methods Women at an increased risk of breast cancer participated in a program to learn about tamoxifen which can reduce the risk of breast cancer. Women reported comparative risk perceptions of breast cancer and completed measures of anxiety, knowledge, and tamoxifen-related behavior intentions. Three months later, women reported their behavior. Results Comparative risk perceptions were positively correlated with anxiety, knowledge, intentions, and behavior three months later. After controlling for participants’ actual risk of breast cancer and absolute risk perceptions, comparative risk perceptions predicted anxiety and knowledge, but not intentions or behavior. Conclusions Comparative risk perceptions can affect patient outcomes like anxiety and knowledge independently of absolute risk perceptions and actual risk information. PMID:21698518

Cardiovascular risk factors among college students: Knowledge, perception, and risk assessment.

PubMed

Tran, Dieu-My T; Zimmerman, Lani M; Kupzyk, Kevin A; Shurmur, Scott W; Pullen, Carol H; Yates, Bernice C

2017-04-01

To assess college students' knowledge and perception of cardiovascular risk factors and to screen for their cardiovascular risks. The final sample that responded to recruitment consisted of 158 college students from a midwestern university. A cross-sectional, descriptive study was performed using convenience sampling. College students were knowledgeable about cardiovascular risk factors but did not perceive themselves at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors was correlated with the lifetime risk estimates (ρ = .17, p = .048), and perception of cardiovascular risk was positively associated with 30-year CVD risk estimates (ρ = .16, p = .048). More than 50% of the participants had 1 or more cardiovascular risk factors. High knowledge level of cardiovascular risk factors was not sufficient to lower cardiovascular risks within this study population, but changing perception of cardiovascular risk factors may play a bigger role in reducing long-term cardiovascular risks.

Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

A Risk Radar driven by Internet of intelligences serving for emergency management in community.

PubMed

Huang, Chongfu; Wu, Tong; Renn, Ortwin

2016-07-01

Today, most of the commercial risk radars only have the function to show risks, as same as a set of risk matrixes. In this paper, we develop the Internet of intelligences (IOI) to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. An IOI scans risks in a community by 4 stages: collecting information and experience about risks; evaluating risk incidents; verifying; and showing risks. Employing the information diffusion method, we optimized to deal with the effective information for calculating risk value. Also, a specific case demonstrates the reliability and practicability of risk radar. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a visual risk communication tool: effects on knowledge and perception of blood transfusion risk.

PubMed

Lee, D H; Mehta, M D

2003-06-01

Effective risk communication in transfusion medicine is important for health-care consumers, but understanding the numerical magnitude of risks can be difficult. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a visual risk communication tool on the knowledge and perception of transfusion risk. Laypeople were randomly assigned to receive transfusion risk information with either a written or a visual presentation format for communicating and comparing the probabilities of transfusion risks relative to other hazards. Knowledge of transfusion risk was ascertained with a multiple-choice quiz and risk perception was ascertained by psychometric scaling and principal components analysis. Two-hundred subjects were recruited and randomly assigned. Risk communication with both written and visual presentation formats increased knowledge of transfusion risk and decreased the perceived dread and severity of transfusion risk. Neither format changed the perceived knowledge and control of transfusion risk, nor the perceived benefit of transfusion. No differences in knowledge or risk perception outcomes were detected between the groups randomly assigned to written or visual presentation formats. Risk communication that incorporates risk comparisons in either written or visual presentation formats can improve knowledge and reduce the perception of transfusion risk in laypeople.

Do beef risk perceptions or risk attitudes have a greater effect on the beef purchase decisions of Canadian consumers?

PubMed

Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

2011-01-01

Cluster analysis is applied in this study to group Canadian households by two characteristics, their risk perceptions and risk attitudes toward beef. There are some similarities in demographic profiles, meat purchases, and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) media recall between the cluster that perceives beef to be the most risky and the cluster that has little willingness to accept the risks of eating beef. There are similarities between the medium risk perception cluster and the medium risk attitude cluster, as well as between the cluster that perceives beef to have little risk and the cluster that is most willing to accept the risks of eating beef. Regression analysis shows that risk attitudes have a larger impact on household-level beef purchasing decisions than do risk perceptions for all consumer clusters. This implies that it may be more effective to undertake policies that reduce the risks associated with eating beef, instead of enhancing risk communication to improve risk perceptions. Only for certain clusters with higher willingness to accept the risks of eating beef might enhancing risk communication increase beef consumption significantly. The different role of risk perceptions and risk attitudes in beef consumption needs to be recognized during the design of risk management policies.

Whither Risk Assessment: New Challenges and Opportunities a Third of a Century After the Red Book.

PubMed

Greenberg, Michael; Goldstein, Bernard D; Anderson, Elizabeth; Dourson, Michael; Landis, Wayne; North, D Warner

2015-11-01

Six multi-decade-long members of SRA reflect on the 1983 Red Book in order to examine the evolving relationship between risk assessment and risk management; the diffusion of risk assessment practice to risk areas such as homeland security and transportation; the quality of chemical risk databases; challenges from other groups to elements at the core of risk assessment practice; and our collective efforts to communicate risk assessment to a diverse set of critical groups that do not understand risk, risk assessment, or many other risk-related issues. The authors reflect on the 10 recommendations in the Red Book and present several pressing challenges for risk assessment practitioners. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Stroke risk perception among participants of a stroke awareness campaign

PubMed Central

Kraywinkel, Klaus; Heidrich, Jan; Heuschmann, Peter U; Wagner, Markus; Berger, Klaus

2007-01-01

Background Subjective risk factor perception is an important component of the motivation to change unhealthy life styles. While prior studies assessed cardiovascular risk factor knowledge, little is known about determinants of the individual perception of stroke risk. Methods Survey by mailed questionnaire among 1483 participants of a prior public stroke campaign in Germany. Participants had been informed about their individual stroke risk based on the Framingham stroke risk score. Stroke risk factor knowledge, perception of lifetime stroke risk and risk factor status were included in the questionnaire, and the determinants of good risk factor knowledge and high stroke risk perception were identified using logistic regression models. Results Overall stroke risk factor knowledge was good with 67–96% of the participants recognizing established risk factors. The two exceptions were diabetes (recognized by 49%) and myocardial infarction (57%). Knowledge of a specific factor was superior among those affected by it. 13% of all participants considered themselves of having a high stroke risk, 55% indicated a moderate risk. All major risk factors contributed significantly to the perception of being at high stroke risk, but the effects of age, sex and education were non-significant. Poor self-rated health was additionally associated with high individual stroke risk perception. Conclusion Stroke risk factor knowledge was high in this study. The self perception of an increased stroke risk was associated with established risk factors as well as low perception of general health. PMID:17371603

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Managing Research in a Risk World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.

2014-01-01

The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.

Knowledge and perceptions of familial and genetic risks for breast cancer risk in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Bradbury, Angela R.; Patrick-Miller, Linda; Egleston, Brian L.; Schwartz, Lisa A.; Sands, Colleen B.; Shorter, Rebecca; Moore, Cynthia W.; Tuchman, Lisa; Rauch, Paula; Malhotra, Shreya; Rowan, Brianne; van Decker, Stephanie; Schmidheiser, Helen; Bealin, Lisa; Sicilia, Patrick; Daly, Mary B.

2012-01-01

Background Evidence suggests early events might modify adult breast cancer risk and many adolescents learn of familial and genetic risks for breast cancer. Little is known about how adolescent girls understand and respond to breast cancer risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews with 11-19 year-old girls at high-risk and population-risk for breast cancer evaluated knowledge and perceptions of breast cancer risk and risk modification. Framework analysis and descriptive statistics were utilized to analyze open-ended responses. Risk group and age differences were evaluated by Fisher’s exact and McNemar’s tests. Results 54 girls (86% of invited), 35 high-risk (65%) and 19 population-risk (35%) completed interviews. The most frequently reported risk for breast cancer was family history/hereditary predisposition (66%). Only 17% of girls were aware of BRCA1/2 genes. The majority (76%) of high-risk girls perceive themselves to be at increased risk for breast cancer, compared to 22% of population-risk girls (p=0.001). Half of girls reported that women can get breast cancer before 20 years old. The majority believe there are things women (70%) and girls (67%) can do to prevent breast cancer. Mother was the most frequently reported source of information for breast cancer among both high-risk (97%) and population-risk (89%) girls. Conclusion In this study, many high-risk girls perceive themselves to be at increased risk for breast cancer, and many girls believe that breast cancer can occur in teens. Yet, most girls believe there are things women and girls can do to prevent breast cancer. Research evaluating the impact of awareness and perceptions of breast cancer risk on psychosocial, health and risk behaviors is needed to develop strategies to optimize responses to cancer risk. PMID:23065030

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

PubMed

Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

2014-05-29

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

Effectiveness of personalized and interactive health risk calculators: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Harle, Christopher A; Downs, Julie S; Padman, Rema

2012-01-01

Risk calculators are popular websites that provide individualized disease risk assessments to the public. Little is known about their effect on risk perceptions and health behavior. This study sought to test whether risk calculator features-namely, personalized estimates of one's disease risk and feedback about the effects of risk-mitigating behaviors-improve risk perceptions and motivate healthy behavior. A web-based experimental study using simple randomization was conducted to compare the effects of 3 prediabetes risk communication websites. Setting The study was conducted in the context of ongoing health promotion activities sponsored by a university's human resources office. Patients Participants were adult university employees. Intervention The control website presented nonindividualized risk information. The personalized noninteractive website presented individualized risk calculations. The personalized interactive website presented individualized risk calculations and feedback about the effects of hypothetical risk-mitigating behaviors. Measurements Pre- and postintervention risk perceptions were measured in absolute and relative terms. Health behavior was measured by assessing participant interest in follow-up preventive health services. On average, risk perceptions decreased by 2%. There was no general effect of personalization or interactivity in aligning subjective risk perceptions with objective risk calculations or in increasing healthy behaviors. However, participants who previously overestimated their risk reduced their perceptions by 16%. This was a significantly larger change than the 2% increase by participants who underestimated their risk. Limitations Results may not generalize to different populations, different diseases, or longer-term outcomes. Compared to nonpersonalized information, individualized risk calculators had little positive effect on prediabetes risk perception accuracy or health behavior. Risk perception accuracy was improved in people who receive relatively "good news" about risk rather than "bad news."

[Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

PubMed

Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

2016-08-20

Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions and can comprehensively and accurately evaluate occupational health risk caused by DMF.

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

PubMed Central

Staerk, Laila; Wang, Biqi; Preis, Sarah R; Larson, Martin G; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; McManus, David D; Ko, Darae; Weng, Lu-Chen; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Frost, Lars; Benjamin, Emelia J

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. Design Community based cohort study. Setting Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. Participants Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. Main outcome measure Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. Results At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. Conclusions Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three in individuals with at least one elevated risk factor. PMID:29699974

[Irrationality and risk--a problem analysis].

PubMed

Bergler, R

1995-04-01

The way one experiences risks and one's risk behaviour is not centrally the result of rational considerations and decisions. Contradictions and incompatibilities can be proved empirically: (1) General paranoiac hysterical fear of risks, (2) complete repression of health risks, (3) unsureness and inability in dealing with risks, (4) prejudice against risks, (5) admiring risk behaviour, (6) seeking dangerous ways to test one's own limits, (7) readiness for aggression by not subjectively being able to control the risk, (8) naively assessing a risk positively thus intensifying pleasurable sensation, (9) increased preparedness to take risks in groups, (10) increased preparedness to take risk in anonymity, (11) accepting risks as a creative challenge for achievement motivation, (12) loss of innovation when avoiding risks. The awareness and assessment of risk factors is dependent on (1) personality factors (achievement-motivated persons experience risk as a creative challenge; risk behaviour being a variation in stimulus and exploration of one's environment), (2) the social back-ground (booster function), (3) the culture-related assessment of being able to control risks and (4) age (youthful risk behaviour being a way of coping with developmental exercises, e.g. purposely breaking parent's rules, provocatively demonstrating adult behaviour, a means to solve frustrating performance failures, advantages through social acceptance). The way one copes with risk factors is based on subjective estimation of risk; this assessment is made anew for each area of behaviour according to the specific situation. Making a decision and acting upon it is the result of simultaneously assessing the possible psychological benefit-cost factors of taking risks. The extent, to which the threat of risk factors is felt, depends on the importance one attaches to certain needs and benefits of quality of life and, in addition to this, what the subjective probabilities are that one is likely to be befallen by a particular risk; here it is possible that the subjective likelihoods of the risk occurring are maximized and minimized (e.g. hygiene, immunizations risks). The subjective risk hierarchies--they are often contrary to scientific knowledge--are additional evaluation factors.

Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

2016-07-27

Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence.

A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahamid, R. A.; Doh, S. I.

2017-11-01

In the construction industry, risk management concept is a less popular technique. There are three main stages in the systematic approach to risk management in construction industry. These stages include: a) risk response; b) risk analysis and evaluation; and c) risk identification. The high risk related to construction business affects each of its participants; while operational analysis and management of construction related risks remain an enormous task to practitioners of the industry. This paper tends towards reviewing the existing literature on construction project risk managements in developing countries specifically on risk management process. The literature lacks ample risk management process approach capable of capturing risk impact on diverse project objectives. This literature review aims at discovering the frequently used techniques in risk identification and analysis. It also attempts to identify response to clarifying the different classifications of risk sources in the existing literature of developing countries, and to identify the future research directions on project risks in the area of construction in developing countries.

What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2009-07-01

Two commonly recommended principles for allocating risk management resources to remediate uncertain hazards are: (1) select a subset to maximize risk-reduction benefits (e.g., maximize the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility of the selected risk-reducing activities), and (2) assign priorities to risk-reducing opportunities and then select activities from the top of the priority list down until no more can be afforded. When different activities create uncertain but correlated risk reductions, as is often the case in practice, then these principles are inconsistent: priority scoring and ranking fails to maximize risk-reduction benefits. Real-world risk priority scoring systems used in homeland security and terrorism risk assessment, environmental risk management, information system vulnerability rating, business risk matrices, and many other important applications do not exploit correlations among risk-reducing opportunities or optimally diversify risk-reducing investments. As a result, they generally make suboptimal risk management recommendations. Applying portfolio optimization methods instead of risk prioritization ranking, rating, or scoring methods can achieve greater risk-reduction value for resources spent.

41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for...

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk factors sufficient to measure the market risk inherent in all covered positions. The risk factors must... risk weighting factor indicated in Table 2 of this appendix. The specific risk capital charge component...

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

On the meaning and use of the risk appetite concept.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2013-03-01

The risk appetite concept has been given considerable attention recently in enterprise risk management contexts. A number of definitions exist, most with a link to risk acceptability, but also values and goals. The usefulness of the concept is, however, disputed; some authors argue that we can in fact do better without it. In this article, we provide a thorough discussion of what the risk appetite concept is actually trying to express and how it best can be used in the relevant decision making. The main purposes of the article are (i) to argue that the risk appetite concept, suitably interpreted, has a role to play in risk management, (ii) to show that the risk appetite concept is well supported by some types of risk perspectives and not by others, and (iii) to show how the risk appetite concept is linked to other related concepts, such as risk seeking and risk acceptability. The risk perspectives studied range from expected value and probability based definitions of risk to views on risk, that are founded on uncertainties. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cardiovascular risk-factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults.

PubMed

Cioe, Patricia A; Crawford, Sybil L; Stein, Michael D

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in noninfected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk [F(1, 117) = 0.13, p > .05]. Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly but significantly correlated; r (126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk-factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of a Risk-based Online Mammography Intervention on Accuracy of Perceived Risk and Mammography Intentions

PubMed Central

Seitz, Holli H.; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N.

2016-01-01

Objective This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. Methods 2,918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (< 1.5%; ≥ 1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) × 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Results Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk <1.5%. For women with a risk < 1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. Conclusion A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Practice Implications Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. PMID:27178707

Evaluation of community health screening participants' knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Mooney, Leslie A; Franks, Amy M

2009-01-01

To assess knowledge of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among a group of health screening participants and to compare knowledge between participants with high and low CVD risk. Cross-sectional pilot study. Jonesboro, AR, during June 2007. 121 adult volunteers participating in a community health screening. 34-item self-administered written questionnaire. Ability to identify CVD risk factors and healthy values for CVD risk factors and the differences in these abilities between participants with high and low CVD risk. Participants demonstrated good knowledge of traditional CVD risk factors such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, lack of exercise, and overweight or obese status. Knowledge of other CVD risk factors and healthy values for major CVD risk factors was limited. Participants with high CVD risk were significantly more likely to correctly identify high triglycerides as a CVD risk factor and to identify healthy values for fasting blood glucose and total cholesterol compared with participants with low CVD risk. Overall, participants lacked knowledge of the risk factor status and healthy values for many CVD risk factors. Participants with high CVD risk may have better knowledge of some CVD risk factors than participants with low CVD risk. These findings highlight the need for more education to improve knowledge in both risk groups.

A Comparison of Actual and Perceived Sexual Risk among Older Adults

PubMed Central

Syme, Maggie L.; Cohn, Tracy J.; Barnack-Tavlaris, Jessica

2017-01-01

Sexual risk among older adults (OAs) is prevalent, though little is known about the accuracy of sexual risk perceptions. Thus, the aim was to determine the accuracy of sexual risk perceptions among OAs by examining concordance between self-reported sexual risk behaviors and perceived risk. Data on OAs aged 50 to 92 were collected via Amazon Mechanical Turk. Frequency of sexual risk behaviors (past 6 months) were reported along with perceived risk (i.e., STI susceptibility). Accuracy categories (accurate, underestimated, overestimated) were established based on dis/concordance between risk levels (low, moderate, high) and perceived risk (not susceptible, somewhat susceptible, very susceptible). Approximately half of the sample reported engaging in vaginal (49%) and/or oral sex (43%) without a condom in the past 6 months. However, approximately two-thirds of the sample indicated they were “not susceptible” to STIs. No relationship was found between risk behaviors and risk perceptions, and approximately half (48.1%) of OAs in the sample underestimated their risk. Accuracy was found to decrease as sexual risk level increased, with 93.1% of high risk OAs underestimating their risk. Several sexual risk behaviors are prevalent among OAs, particularly men. However, perception of risk is often inaccurate and warrants attention. PMID:26813853

A Comparison of Actual and Perceived Sexual Risk Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Syme, Maggie L; Cohn, Tracy J; Barnack-Tavlaris, Jessica

2017-02-01

Sexual risk among older adults (OAs) is prevalent, though little is known about the accuracy of sexual risk perceptions. Thus, the aim was to determine the accuracy of sexual risk perceptions among OAs by examining concordance between self-reported sexual risk behaviors and perceived risk. Data on OAs aged 50 to 92 were collected via Amazon.com's Mechanical Turk. Frequency of sexual risk behaviors (past six months) were reported along with perceived risk, namely, sexually transmitted infection (STI) susceptibility. Accuracy categories (accurate, underestimated, overestimated) were established based on dis/concordance between risk levels (low, moderate, high) and perceived risk (not susceptible, somewhat susceptible, very susceptible). Approximately half of the sample reported engaging in vaginal (49%) and/or oral sex (43%) without a condom in the past six months. However, approximately two-thirds of the sample indicated they were "not susceptible" to STIs. No relationship was found between risk behaviors and risk perceptions, and approximately half (48.1%) of OAs in the sample underestimated their risk. Accuracy was found to decrease as sexual risk level increased, with 93.1% of high-risk OAs underestimating their risk. Several sexual risk behaviors are prevalent among OAs, particularly men. However, perception of risk is often inaccurate and warrants attention.

HIV Risk Perception, Sexual Behavior, and HIV Prevalence among Men-Who-Have-Sex-with-Men at a Community-Based Voluntary Counseling and Testing Center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

PubMed

Koh, Kwee Choy; Yong, Lit Sin

2014-01-01

We describe the HIV risk perception, sexual behavior, and HIV prevalence among 423 men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) clients who received voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) services at a community-based center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The mean age was 29 years old. One hundred one (23.9%) clients rated themselves as low risk, 118 (27.9%) as medium risk, 36 (8.5%) as high risk, and 168 (39.7%) were unsure of their risk. Twenty-four (9.4%) clients tested HIV positive (4 (4%) low risk, 9 (7.6%) medium risk, 11 (30.6%) high risk, and 13 (7.7%) unsure risk). We found a positive correlation between risk perception and HIV infection in this study. Clients with high HIV risk perception have 17x the odds of testing HIV positive compared to low risk clients. High HIV risk perception was significantly associated with multiple sex partners, multiple types of sex partners, alcohol use before intercourse, unprotected sex beyond 6 months, and inconsistent condom use during anal sex compared to low risk clients. There were no statistically significant differences between medium risk and unsure risk clients compared to low risk clients. Strategies should be targeted towards change in sexual practices among those who are perceived to be at high risk.

How do women at increased breast cancer risk perceive and decide between risks of cancer and risk-reducing treatments? A synthesis of qualitative research.

PubMed

Fielden, Hannah G; Brown, Stephen L; Saini, Pooja; Beesley, Helen; Salmon, Peter

2017-09-01

Risk-reducing procedures can be offered to people at increased cancer risk, but many procedures can have iatrogenic effects. People therefore need to weigh risks associated with both cancer and the risk-reduction procedure in their decisions. By reviewing relevant literature on breast cancer (BC) risk reduction, we aimed to understand how women at relatively high risk of BC perceive their risk and how their risk perceptions influence their decisions about risk reduction. Synthesis of 15 qualitative studies obtained from systematic searches of SCOPUS, Web of Knowledge, PsychINFO, and Medline electronic databases (inception-June 2015). Women did not think about risk probabilistically. Instead, they allocated themselves to broad risk categories, typically influenced by their own or familial experiences of BC. In deciding about risk-reduction procedures, some women reported weighing the risks and benefits, but papers did not describe how they did so. For many women, however, an overriding wish to reduce intense worry about BC led them to choose aggressive risk-reducing procedures without such deliberation. Reasoning that categorisation is a fundamental aspect of risk perception, we argue that patients can be encouraged to develop more nuanced and accurate categorisations of their own risk through their interactions with clinicians. Empirically-based ethical reflection is required to determine whether and when it is appropriate to provide risk-reduction procedures to alleviate worry. © 2016 The Authors. Psycho-Oncology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamic Relationships Between Parental Monitoring, Peer Risk Involvement and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Bahamian Mid-Adolescents

PubMed Central

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Lunn, Sonja

2015-01-01

CONTEXT Considerable research has examined reciprocal relationships between parenting, peers and adolescent problem behavior; however, such studies have largely considered the influence of peers and parents separately. It is important to examine simultaneously the relationships between parental monitoring, peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior, and whether increases in peer risk involvement and changes in parental monitoring longitudinally predict adolescent sexual risk behavior. METHODS Four waves of sexual behavior data were collected between 2008/2009 and 2011 from high school students aged 13–17 in the Bahamas. Structural equation and latent growth curve modeling were used to examine reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, perceived peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior. RESULTS For both male and female youth, greater perceived peer risk involvement predicted higher sexual risk behavior index scores, and greater parental monitoring predicted lower scores. Reciprocal relationships were found between parental monitoring and sexual risk behavior for males and between perceived peer risk involvement and sexual risk behavior for females. For males, greater sexual risk behavior predicted lower parental monitoring; for females, greater sexual risk behavior predicted higher perceived peer risk involvement. According to latent growth curve models, a higher initial level of parental monitoring predicted decreases in sexual risk behavior, whereas both a higher initial level and a higher growth rate of peer risk involvement predicted increases in sexual risk behavior. CONCLUSION Results highlight the important influence of peer risk involvement on youths’ sexual behavior and gender differences in reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, peer influence and adolescent sexual risk behavior. PMID:26308261

Dynamic Relationships Between Parental Monitoring, Peer Risk Involvement and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Bahamian Mid-Adolescents.

PubMed

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Lunn, Sonja

2015-06-01

Considerable research has examined reciprocal relationships between parenting, peers and adolescent problem behavior; however, such studies have largely considered the influence of peers and parents separately. It is important to examine simultaneously the relationships between parental monitoring, peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior, and whether increases in peer risk involvement and changes in parental monitoring longitudinally predict adolescent sexual risk behavior. Four waves of sexual behavior data were collected between 2008/2009 and 2011 from high school students aged 13-17 in the Bahamas. Structural equation and latent growth curve modeling were used to examine reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, perceived peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior. For both male and female youth, greater perceived peer risk involvement predicted higher sexual risk behavior index scores, and greater parental monitoring predicted lower scores. Reciprocal relationships were found between parental monitoring and sexual risk behavior for males and between perceived peer risk involvement and sexual risk behavior for females. For males, greater sexual risk behavior predicted lower parental monitoring; for females, greater sexual risk behavior predicted higher perceived peer risk involvement. According to latent growth curve models, a higher initial level of parental monitoring predicted decreases in sexual risk behavior, whereas both a higher initial level and a higher growth rate of peer risk involvement predicted increases in sexual risk behavior. Results highlight the important influence of peer risk involvement on youths' sexual behavior and gender differences in reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, peer influence and adolescent sexual risk behavior.

HIV risk perception and preexposure prophylaxis interest among a heterosexual population visiting a sexually transmitted infection clinic.

PubMed

Khawcharoenporn, Thana; Kendrick, Sabrina; Smith, Kimberly

2012-04-01

Low perception of HIV risk despite behaviors associated with increased risk is thought to be a contributing factor for a higher prevalence of HIV in blacks than other groups in the United States. We sought to determine HIV risk perception and its impact on safer sex practices and interest in preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). From August 1 to October 31, 2010, an anonymous survey was conducted at a sexually transmitted infection clinic asking questions about demographics, risk behaviors, and PrEP interest. Participants were categorized into high-risk, moderate-risk, and low-risk groups according to predefined HIV risk characteristics. Only heterosexual high-risk participants were further assessed for their risk perception, condom use and PrEP interest. There were 494 participants; 63% male, 70% blacks, 88% heterosexual; 83% were categorized into the high-risk group. Of the 359 heterosexual high-risk participants, 301 (84%) perceived themselves at no or low-risk. Rates of consistent condom use with vaginal, oral, and anal sex were low (<20%) in this group despite high levels of knowledge about HIV transmission risks. Rates of condom use were not affected by risk perception. No interest in PrEP was associated with low education level (adjusted odds ratio 4.97; p=0.02) and low risk perception. These findings suggest that despite having knowledge about HIV transmission risks, the majority of high-risk participants did not recognize their risks and used condoms with low frequency. Low risk perception and low education level may impact PrEP interest. Enhanced interventions are needed to improve HIV risk perception, safer sex practices, and knowledge about PrEP.

Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

PubMed

Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

2014-08-01

Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.

Randomized Controlled Trial of an Educational Intervention Using an Online Risk Calculator for Knee Osteoarthritis: Effect on Risk Perception.

PubMed

Losina, Elena; Michl, Griffin L; Smith, Karen C; Katz, Jeffrey N

2017-08-01

Young adults, in general, are not aware of their risk of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Understanding risk and risk factors is critical to knee OA prevention. We tested the efficacy of a personalized risk calculator on accuracy of knee OA risk perception and willingness to change behaviors associated with knee OA risk factors. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 375 subjects recruited using Amazon Mechanical Turk. Subjects were randomized to either use a personalized risk calculator based on demographic and risk-factor information (intervention), or to view general OA risk information (control). At baseline and after the intervention, subjects estimated their 10-year and lifetime risk of knee OA and responded to contemplation ladders measuring willingness to change diet, exercise, or weight-control behaviors. Subjects in both arms had an estimated 3.6% 10-year and 25.3% lifetime chance of developing symptomatic knee OA. Both arms greatly overestimated knee OA risk at baseline, estimating a 10-year risk of 26.1% and a lifetime risk of 47.8%. After the intervention, risk calculator subjects' perceived 10-year risk decreased by 12.9 percentage points to 12.5% and perceived lifetime risk decreased by 19.5 percentage points to 28.1%. Control subjects' perceived risks remained unchanged. Risk calculator subjects were more likely to move to an action stage on the exercise contemplation ladder (relative risk 2.1). There was no difference between the groups for diet or weight-control ladders. The risk calculator is a useful intervention for knee OA education and may motivate some exercise-related behavioral change. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Impact of the Prevention Plan on Employee Health Risk Reduction

PubMed Central

Edington, Dee W.; Bég, Sami

2010-01-01

Abstract This study evaluated the impact of The Prevention Plan™ on employee health risks after 1 year of integrated primary prevention (wellness and health promotion) and secondary prevention (biometric and lab screening as well as early detection) interventions. The Prevention Plan is an innovative prevention benefit that provides members with the high-tech/high-touch support and encouragement they need to adopt healthy behaviors. Support services include 24/7 nurse hotlines, one-on-one health coaching, contests, group events, and employer incentives. Specifically, we analyzed changes in 15 health risk measures among a cohort of 2606 employees from multiple employer groups who completed a baseline health risk appraisal, blood tests, and biometric screening in 2008 and who were reassessed in 2009. We then compared the data to the Edington Natural Flow of risks. The cohort showed significant reduction in 10 of the health risks measured (9 at P ≤ 0.01 and 1 at P ≤ 0.05). The most noticeable changes in health risks were a reduction in the proportion of employees with high-risk blood pressure (42.78%), high-risk fasting blood sugar (31.13%), and high-risk stress (24.94%). There was an overall health risk transition among the cohort with net movement from higher risk levels to lower risk levels (P < 0.01). There was a net increase of 9.40% of people in the low-risk category, a decrease of 3.61% in the moderate-risk category, and a 5.79% decrease in the high-risk category. Compared to Edington's Natural Flow model, 48.70% of individuals in the high-risk category moved from high risk to moderate risk (Natural Flow 31%), 46.35% moved from moderate risk to low risk (Natural Flow 35%), 15.65% moved from high risk to low risk (Natural Flow 6%), and 87.33% remained in the low-risk category (Natural Flow 70%) (P < 0.001). (Population Health Management 2010;13:275–284) PMID:20879909

Impact of the prevention plan on employee health risk reduction.

PubMed

Loeppke, Ronald; Edington, Dee W; Bég, Sami

2010-10-01

This study evaluated the impact of The Prevention Plan™ on employee health risks after 1 year of integrated primary prevention (wellness and health promotion) and secondary prevention (biometric and lab screening as well as early detection) interventions. The Prevention Plan is an innovative prevention benefit that provides members with the high-tech/high-touch support and encouragement they need to adopt healthy behaviors. Support services include 24/7 nurse hotlines, one-on-one health coaching, contests, group events, and employer incentives. Specifically, we analyzed changes in 15 health risk measures among a cohort of 2606 employees from multiple employer groups who completed a baseline health risk appraisal, blood tests, and biometric screening in 2008 and who were reassessed in 2009. We then compared the data to the Edington Natural Flow of risks. The cohort showed significant reduction in 10 of the health risks measured (9 at P≤ 0.01 and 1 at P≤0.05). The most noticeable changes in health risks were a reduction in the proportion of employees with high-risk blood pressure (42.78%), high-risk fasting blood sugar (31.13%), and high-risk stress (24.94%). There was an overall health risk transition among the cohort with net movement from higher risk levels to lower risk levels (P<0.01). There was a net increase of 9.40% of people in the low-risk category, a decrease of 3.61% in the moderate-risk category, and a 5.79% decrease in the high-risk category. Compared to Edington's Natural Flow model, 48.70% of individuals in the high-risk category moved from high risk to moderate risk (Natural Flow 31%), 46.35% moved from moderate risk to low risk (Natural Flow 35%), 15.65% moved from high risk to low risk (Natural Flow 6%), and 87.33% remained in the low-risk category (Natural Flow 70%) (P<0.001).

Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

PubMed

Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

2010-11-01

US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (<10% risk, 10-20% risk, or >20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (<10% risk of a major coronary event in the next 10 years), 22% as having "moderately high" (10-20%) risk, and 7% as having "high" (>20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

Perceived Versus Objective Breast Cancer, Breast Cancer Risk in Diverse Women

PubMed Central

Fehniger, Julia; Livaudais-Toman, Jennifer; Karliner, Leah; Kerlikowske, Karla; Tice, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Jessica; Ozanne, Elissa

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Prior research suggests that women do not accurately estimate their risk for breast cancer. Estimating and informing women of their risk is essential for tailoring appropriate screening and risk reduction strategies. Methods: Data were collected for BreastCARE, a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate a PC-tablet based intervention providing multiethnic women and their primary care physicians with tailored information about breast cancer risk. We included women ages 40–74 visiting general internal medicine primary care clinics at one academic practice and one safety net practice who spoke English, Spanish, or Cantonese, and had no personal history of breast cancer. We collected baseline information regarding risk perception and concern. Women were categorized as high risk (vs. average risk) if their family history met criteria for referral to genetic counseling or if they were in the top 5% of risk for their age based on the Gail or Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Model (BCSC) breast cancer risk model. Results: Of 1,261 participants, 25% (N=314) were classified as high risk. More average risk than high risk women had correct risk perception (72% vs. 18%); 25% of both average and high risk women reported being very concerned about breast cancer. Average risk women with correct risk perception were less likely to be concerned about breast cancer (odds ratio [OR]=0.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.2–0.4) while high risk women with correct risk perception were more likely to be concerned about breast cancer (OR=5.1; 95%CI=2.7–9.6). Conclusions: Many women did not accurately perceive their risk for breast cancer. Women with accurate risk perception had an appropriate level of concern about breast cancer. Improved methods of assessing and informing women of their breast cancer risk could motivate high risk women to apply appropriate prevention strategies and allay unnecessary concern among average risk women. PMID:24372085

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.

PubMed

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-03-01

Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

PubMed Central

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-01-01

Summary Background Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40–74 years. Methods Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40–64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Findings Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40–64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Interpretation Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. PMID:28126460

Risk Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randal, L. Nathan

This chapter of "Principles of School Business Management" presents an overview of risk management for school districts. The chapter first discusses four fundamental elements of risk management: (1) identifying and measuring risks; (2) reducing or eliminating risks; (3) transferring unassumable risks; and (4) assuming remaining risks.…

12 CFR 567.3 - Individual minimum capital requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... risk, credit risk, concentration of credit risk, certain risks arising from nontraditional activities... operating risks, particularly the risks presented by concentrations of credit and nontraditional activities... capital requirement for a savings association that varies from the risk-based capital requirement, the...

Defining Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tholkes, Ben F.

1998-01-01

Defines camping risks and lists types and examples: (1) objective risk beyond control; (2) calculated risk based on personal choice; (3) perceived risk; and (4) reckless risk. Describes campers to watch ("immortals" and abdicators), and several "treatments" of risk: avoidance, safety procedures and well-trained staff, adequate…

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 325 - Risk-Based Capital for State Non-Member Banks: Market Risk

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... commodity prices. (2) Specific risk means changes in the market value of specific positions due to factors... its risk measurement and risk management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk factors sufficient to measure the market risk inherent in all covered...

Using Prospect Theory to Investigate Decision-Making Bias Within an Information Security Context

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

risk was acceptable, 5 when to the CA the risk was so bad...Population Proportion Lower Tail: Risk Averse (A) Coded as 0. Risk Seeking (B) Coded as 1. Ho (indifferent in risk behavior): p = . 5 Ha ( risk averse...Averse (A) Coded as 0. Risk Seeking (B) Coded as 1. Ho (indifferent in risk behavior): p = . 5 Ha ( risk averse thus significantly below . 5 ): p < . 5

Relationship Risks in Context: A Cumulative Risk Approach to Understanding Relationship Satisfaction

PubMed Central

Rauer, Amy J.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Garvan, Cynthia W.; Hou, Wei

2009-01-01

Risks associated with less satisfying intimate relationships often co-occur within individuals, raising questions about approaches that consider only their independent impact. Utilizing the cumulative risk model, which acknowledges the natural covariation of risk factors, this study examined individuals in intimate relationships using the Florida Family Formation Survey (n = 2,876) and a replication sample (n = 1,048). Analyses confirmed that not only was relationship satisfaction lower among those with more risks, but the cumulative risk score was predictive above and beyond the individual risk factors. Furthermore, experiencing multiple risks exacerbated the negative associations between individual risks and relationship satisfaction, suggesting that the operation of a risk factor in a relationship is moderated by the presence or absence of other risks. PMID:19587840

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

2016-01-01

In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from radiation and smoking risk" enhanced both subjective and objective understanding without diminishing trust in all participants and in the high dread-risk perception group; use of other risk-comparison information could lead the public to overestimate risk.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management.

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners’ use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs’ descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. Results GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: ‘positive’, ‘scare tactic’, and ‘indirect’. A ‘positive’ strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A ‘scare tactic’ strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to ‘scare’ them into taking action. An ‘indirect’ strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. Conclusions This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice. PMID:24885409

Reconceptualising risk: Perceptions of risk in rural and remote maternity service planning.

PubMed

Barclay, Lesley; Kornelsen, Jude; Longman, Jo; Robin, Sarah; Kruske, Sue; Kildea, Sue; Pilcher, Jennifer; Martin, Tanya; Grzybowski, Stefan; Donoghue, Deborah; Rolfe, Margaret; Morgan, Geoff

2016-07-01

to explore perceptions and examples of risk related to pregnancy and childbirth in rural and remote Australia and how these influence the planning of maternity services. data collection in this qualitative component of a mixed methods study included 88 semi-structured individual and group interviews (n=102), three focus groups (n=22) and one group information session (n=17). Researchers identified two categories of risk for exploration: health services risk (including clinical and corporate risks) and social risk (including cultural, emotional and financial risks). Data were aggregated and thematically analysed to identify perceptions and examples of risk related to each category. fieldwork was conducted in four jurisdictions at nine sites in rural (n=3) and remote (n=6) Australia. 117 health service employees and 24 consumers. examples and perceptions relating to each category of risk were identified from the data. Most medical practitioners and health service managers perceived clinical risks related to rural birthing services without access to caesarean section. Consumer participants were more likely to emphasise social risks arising from a lack of local birthing services. our analysis demonstrated that the closure of services adds social risk, which exacerbates clinical risk. Analysis also highlighted that perceptions of clinical risk are privileged over social risk in decisions about rural and remote maternity service planning. a comprehensive analysis of risk that identifies how social and other forms of risk contribute to adverse clinical outcomes would benefit rural and remote people and their health services. Formal risk analyses should consider the risks associated with failure to provide birthing services in rural and remote communities as well as the risks of maintaining services. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

How many or how much? Testing the relative influence of the number of social network risks versus the amount of time exposed to social network risks on post-treatment substance use.

PubMed

Eddie, David; Kelly, John F

2017-06-01

Having high-risk, substance-using friends is associated with young adult substance use disorder (SUD) relapse. It is unclear, however, whether it is the total number of high-risk friends, or the amount of time spent with high-risk friends that leads to relapse. Unclear also, is to what extent low-risk friends buffer risk. This study examined the influence of number of high-risk and low-risk friends, and the amount time spent with these friends on post-treatment percent days abstinent (PDA). Young adult inpatients (N=302) were assessed at intake, and 3, 6, and 12 months on social network measures and PDA. Mixed models tested for effects of number of high- and low-risk friends, and time spent with these friends on PDA, and for net-risk friend effects to test whether low-risk friends offset risk. Within and across assessments, number of, and time spent with high-risk friends was negatively associated with PDA, while the inverse was true for low-risk friends. Early post-treatment, time spent with friends more strongly predicted PDA than number of friends. Participants were more deleteriously affected by time with high-risk friends the longer they were out of treatment, while contemporaneously protection conferred by low-risk friends increased. This interaction effect, however, was not observed with number of high- or low-risk friends, or number of friends net-risk. Young adult SUD patients struggling to break ties with high-risk friends should be encouraged to minimize time with them. Clinicians should also encourage patients to grow their social network of low-risk friends. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Communication strategies for enhancing understanding of the behavioral implications of genetic and biomarker tests for disease risk: the role of coherence.

PubMed

Cameron, Linda D; Marteau, Theresa M; Brown, Paul M; Klein, William M P; Sherman, Kerry A

2012-06-01

Individuals frequently have difficulty understanding how behavior can reduce genetically-conferred risk for diseases such as colon cancer. With increasing opportunities to purchase genetic tests, communication strategies are needed for presenting information in ways that optimize comprehension and adaptive behavior. Using the Common-Sense Model, we tested the efficacy of a strategy for providing information about the relationships (links) among the physiological processes underlying disease risk and protective action on understanding, protective action motivations, and willingness to purchase tests. We tested the generalizability of the strategy's effects across varying risk levels, for genetic tests versus tests of a non-genetic biomarker, and when using graphic and numeric risk formats. In an internet-based experiment, 749 adults from four countries responded to messages about a hypothetical test for colon cancer risk. Messages varied by Risk-Action Link Information (provision or no provision of information describing how a low-fat diet reduces risk given positive results, indicating presence of a gene fault), Risk Increment (20%, 50%, or 80% risk given positive results), Risk Format (numeric or graphic presentation of risk increments), and Test Type (genetic or enzyme). Providing risk-action link information enhanced beliefs of coherence (understanding how a low-fat diet reduces risk) and response efficacy (low-fat diets effectively reduce risk) and lowered appraisals of anticipated risk of colon cancer given positive results. These effects held across risk increments, risk formats, and test types. For genetic tests, provision of risk-action link information reduced the amount individuals were willing to pay for testing. Brief messages explaining how action can reduce genetic and biomarker-detected risks can promote beliefs motivating protective action. By enhancing understanding of behavioral control, they may reduce the perceived value of genetic risk information.

Risks of Being Malignant or High Risk and Their Characteristics in Breast Lesions 20 mm or Larger After Benign Results on Ultrasonography-Guided 14-Gauge Core Needle Biopsy.

PubMed

Moon, Hee Jung; Kim, Min Jung; Yoon, Jung Hyun; Kim, Eun-Kyung

2016-06-01

The malignancy risk, risk of being high-risk lesions after benign results on ultrasonography-guided 14-gauge core needle biopsies (US-CNBs), and their characteristics in breast lesions of 20 mm or greater were investigated. Eight hundred forty-seven breast lesions with benign results on US-CNB were classified as benign, high risk, and malignant through excision and clinical follow-up. The risks of being malignant or high risk were analyzed in all lesions, lesions 20 to 29 mm, and lesions 30 mm or greater. Their clinicopathological characteristics were evaluated. Of 847, 18 (2.1%) were malignant, 53 (6.3%) were high-risk lesions, and 776 (91.6%) were benign. Of 18 malignancies, 6 (33.3%) were malignant phyllodes tumors and 12 (66.7%) were carcinomas. In benign lesions 20 to 29 mm, risks of being malignant or high risk were 1.6% (9 of 566) and 4.4% (25 of 566). In 281 lesions 30 mm or greater, the risks of being malignant or high risk were 3.2% and 10%. The risk of being high risk in lesions 30 mm or greater was 10%, significantly higher than 4.4% of lesions 20 to 29 mm (P = 0.002). Excision can be considered in lesions measuring 20 mm or larger because of the 2.1% malignancy risk and the 6.3% risk of being high-risk lesions despite benign results on US-CNB. Excision should be considered in lesions measuring 30 mm or larger because of the 3.2% malignancy risk and the 10% risk of being high-risk lesions.

Adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information: A qualitative study.

PubMed

Perry, John; Johnson, Ilona; Popat, Hashmat; Morgan, Maria Z; Gill, Paul

2018-04-24

For effective risk communication, clinicians must understand patients' values and beliefs in relation to the risks of treatment. This qualitative study aimed to explore adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information. Five focus groups were carried out with 32 school/college pupils aged 12-18 in Wales, UK. Participants were purposively selected and had all experienced orthodontic treatment. A thematic approach was used for analysis and data collection was completed at the point of data saturation. Four themes emerged from the data; (a) day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment, (b) important orthodontic risk information, (c) engaging with orthodontic risk information and (d) managing the risks of orthodontic treatment. Day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment that were affecting participants "here and now" were of most concern. Information about preventing the risks of treatment was deemed to be important. Participants did not actively seek risk information but engaged passively with information from convenient sources. Perceptions of risk susceptibility influenced participants' management of the risks of orthodontic treatment. This study demonstrates that adolescent patients can understand information about the nature and severity of orthodontic treatment risks. However, adolescent patients can have false perceptions if the risks are unfamiliar, perceived only to have a future impact or if seen as easy to control. Adolescent patients must be provided with timely and easily accessible risk information and with practical solutions to prevent the risks of treatment. The views and experiences gathered in this study can assist clinicians to better understand their young patients' beliefs about treatment risks, facilitate effective risk communication and contribute to improved patient-centred care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

PubMed Central

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

PubMed

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

PubMed

Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

2016-11-01

Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

PubMed

Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

2011-01-01

Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

Debunking vaccination myths: strong risk negations can increase perceived vaccination risks.

PubMed

Betsch, Cornelia; Sachse, Katharina

2013-02-01

Information about risks is often contradictory, especially in the health domain. A vast amount of bizarre information on vaccine-adverse events (VAE) can be found on the Internet; most are posted by antivaccination activists. Several actors in the health sector struggle against these statements by negating claimed risks with scientific explanations. The goal of the present work is to find optimal ways of negating risk to decrease risk perceptions. In two online experiments, we varied the extremity of risk negations and their source. Perception of the probability of VAE, their expected severity (both variables serve as indicators of perceived risk), and vaccination intentions. Paradoxically, messages strongly indicating that there is "no risk" led to a higher perceived vaccination risk than weak negations. This finding extends previous work on the negativity bias, which has shown that information stating the presence of risk decreases risk perceptions, while information negating the existence of risk increases such perceptions. Several moderators were also tested; however, the effect occurred independently of the number of negations, recipient involvement, and attitude. Solely the credibility of the information source interacted with the extremity of risk negation: For credible sources (governmental institutions), strong and weak risk negations lead to similar perceived risk, while for less credible sources (pharmaceutical industries) weak negations lead to less perceived risk than strong negations. Optimal risk negation may profit from moderate rather than extreme formulations as a source's trustworthiness can vary.

Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

PubMed

Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

2015-02-01

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

PubMed

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

PubMed

Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

2012-08-01

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using hypothetical data to assess the effect of numerical format and context on the perception of coronary heart disease risk.

PubMed

Fair, Anna K I; Murray, Peter G; Thomas, Anna; Cobain, Mark R

2008-01-01

To test the hypothesis that responses to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk estimates are heightened by use of ratio formats, peer group risk information, and long time frames. Cross-sectional, experimental, between-factors design. Three regions in England. A total of 740 men and women ages 30 to 70 years. Risk perception, "emotional" response, intention to change lifestyle. Logistic regression was used to investigate the impact of numerical format (ratio vs. percentage), peer group risk (personal vs. peer group), and time frame (10-year vs. 30-year) on risk perception. Analysis of variance was used to investigate the impact of these factors on emotional response and intention to change lifestyle questions. Higher perceived risk was observed when risk was presented as a ratio (p < .001) and when it was supplemented with peer group risk estimates (p = .006). Emotional responses to risk information were heightened when risk was presented as a ratio (p = .0004) and supplemented with peer group risk estimates (p = .002). Presentation with ratios also increased intention to make lifestyle changes (p = .047). Perception of CHD risk information is affected by the presentation format. Where absolute risks may appear low, use of ratios and supplementation of personal risk estimates with peer group risk may increase risk perception.

Tick-Tock Goes the Croc: A High-Density EEG Study of Risk-Reactivity and Binge-Drinking.

PubMed

Kiat, John E; Cheadle, Jacob E

2018-05-31

Links between individual differences in risk processing and high-risk behaviors such as binge drinking have long been the focus of active research. However, investigations in this area almost exclusively utilize decision-making focused paradigms. This emphasis makes it difficult to assess links between risk behaviors and raw risk reactivity independent of decision and feedback processes. A deeper understanding of this association has the potential to shed light on the role of risk reactivity in high-risk behavior susceptibility. To contribute towards this aim, this study utilizes a popular risk-taking game, the crocodile dentist, to assess links between individual differences in decision-free risk-reactivity and reported binge drinking frequency levels. In this task, participants engage in a series of decision-free escalating risk responses. Risk-reactivity was assessed by measuring Late Positive Potential responses towards risk-taking action initiation cues using high-density 256-Channel EEG. The results indicate that, after controlling for overall alcohol consumption frequency, higher rates of reported binge drinking are associated with both increased general risk-taking responsivity and increased risk-reactivity escalation as a function of risk level. These findings highlight intriguing links between risk reactivity and binge drinking frequency, making key contributions in the areas of risk-taking and affective science.

Complications

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Men

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Relationships among trust in messages, risk perception, and risk reduction preferences based upon avian influenza in Taiwan.

PubMed

Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

2012-08-01

Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers' risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

2012-01-01

Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

PubMed

Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-Wen

2016-01-25

The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Outrage Factors in Government Press Releases of Food Risk and Their Influence on News Media Coverage.

PubMed

Ju, Youngkee; Lim, Jeongsub; Shim, Minsun; You, Myoungsoon

2015-08-01

An appropriate level of risk perception should be a critical issue in modern "risk society." There have been many studies on the influences on risk perception. This study investigates whether risk communication scholar Dr. Peter Sandman's outrage factors intensify journalistic attention to health risks from food consumption. A content analysis of a health institution's press releases was conducted to examine 15 outrage factors of food risks conveyed in the governmental risk communication. In addition, the news stories covering the food risks informed by the press releases were calculated to evaluate the relation between outrage factors of a risk and the number of news stories covering the risk. Results showed that controllability was the most salient outrage factor, followed by trust, voluntariness, familiarity, and human origin; the greater the outrage score of a risk, the more news stories of the risk. For individual outrage factors, a risk with an implication of catastrophic potential was associated with an increase of news stories. Food providers' distrustful behaviors also influenced journalistic attention to the food risks. The implication of the findings to health message designers is discussed.

How Fear-Arousing News Messages Affect Risk Perceptions and Intention to Talk About Risk.

PubMed

Paek, Hye-Jin; Oh, Sang-Hwa; Hove, Thomas

2016-09-01

Building on the theoretical arguments of the impersonal-impact and differential-impact hypotheses, this study has a twofold purpose: first, to demonstrate how fear-arousing media messages about risk are associated with personal-level risk perception, as well as, and perhaps more so than, societal-level risk perception; and second, to examine how the resulting risk perceptions can mediate intention to talk about the risk with family and friends. A news message evaluation study was conducted among the general public in South Korea concerning two major risks, carcinogens and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Two sets of structural equation models reveal three main findings: (a) Fear-arousing news messages are positively related to personal-level risk perception, as well as to societal-level risk perception; (b) fear-arousing news messages result in intention to talk about the risk directly and indirectly through risk perception; and (c) personal-level risk perception appears more strongly related to intention to talk than does societal-level risk perception, although such relationships may vary across risk topics.

Which Type of Risk Information to Use for Whom? Moderating Role of Outcome-Relevant Involvement in the Effects of Statistical and Exemplified Risk Information on Risk Perceptions.

PubMed

So, Jiyeon; Jeong, Se-Hoon; Hwang, Yoori

2017-04-01

The extant empirical research examining the effectiveness of statistical and exemplar-based health information is largely inconsistent. Under the premise that the inconsistency may be due to an unacknowledged moderator (O'Keefe, 2002), this study examined a moderating role of outcome-relevant involvement (Johnson & Eagly, 1989) in the effects of statistical and exemplified risk information on risk perception. Consistent with predictions based on elaboration likelihood model (Petty & Cacioppo, 1984), findings from an experiment (N = 237) concerning alcohol consumption risks showed that statistical risk information predicted risk perceptions of individuals with high, rather than low, involvement, while exemplified risk information predicted risk perceptions of those with low, rather than high, involvement. Moreover, statistical risk information contributed to negative attitude toward drinking via increased risk perception only for highly involved individuals, while exemplified risk information influenced the attitude through the same mechanism only for individuals with low involvement. Theoretical and practical implications for health risk communication are discussed.

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

Awareness of modifiable acute myocardial infarction risk factors has little impact on risk perception for heart attack among vulnerable patients.

PubMed

Abed, Mona A; Khalil, Amani A; Moser, Debra K

2015-01-01

Poor awareness of modifiable risks for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) may explain the reported weak relationship between patients' actual and perceived risk for AMI. To assess the level of awareness of modifiable risks and perceived vulnerability for AMI among Jordanian patients, and to determine their independent association. This was a cross-sectional correlational study (N = 231). Perceived risk, awareness of risk factors and risk profile were collected by self-reports and medical chart review. Patients were mostly males (80%) and had a mean of 55.3 ± 12.6 years for age. Perceived and actual AMI risks were not highly congruent even though patients had, on average, two modifiable risks and were knowledgeable of them. Awareness of risk factors independently explained 3.5% of the variance in perceived risk. The risk for developing AMI is underestimated among cardiac patients and it is only weakly linked with their awareness of AMI risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Theoretical model study about the application risk of high risk medical equipment].

PubMed

Shang, Changhao; Yang, Fenghui

2014-11-01

Research for establishing a risk monitoring theoretical model of high risk medical equipment at applying site. Regard the applying site as a system which contains some sub-systems. Every sub-system consists of some risk estimating indicators. After quantizing of each indicator, the quantized values are multiplied with corresponding weight and then the products are accumulated. Hence, the risk estimating value of each subsystem is attained. Follow the calculating method, the risk estimating values of each sub-system are multiplied with corresponding weights and then the product is accumulated. The cumulative sum is the status indicator of the high risk medical equipment at applying site. The status indicator reflects the applying risk of the medical equipment at applying site. Establish a risk monitoring theoretical model of high risk medical equipment at applying site. The model can monitor the applying risk of high risk medical equipment at applying site dynamically and specially.

Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

PubMed

Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

2005-10-01

The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2016-01-01

The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

Skin Complications

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Insulin Pumps

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Selected Aspects Of The Risk In The Supply Chain In Context Of The Supplier Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koblen, Ivan; Lestyánszka Škůrková, Katarína

2015-06-01

The introductory part of the paper underlines the importance of "Risk-based thinking" in the Quality Management System (QMS) and risk in the supply chain, as a principle part of the QMS. After introducing the key terms, the authors focused on the principle part of the article - explanation of the external and internal supply chain risks and the main factors concerning the supply risks, demand risks and environmental risks (as cardinal types of external supply chain risks) as well as the manufacturing and process risks, network/planning and control risks (as most important types of internal supply chain risks). The authors inform on the selected supply chain risk management tools, especially on those which are linked to the appropriate utilization of quality management tools.

Program Risk Planning with Risk as a Resource

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

1998-01-01

The current focus of NASA on cost effective ways of achieving mission objectives has created a demand for a change in the risk management process of a program. At present, there is no guidelines as to when risk taking is justified due to high cost for a marginal improvement in risk. As a remedial step, Dr. Greenfield of NASA, developed a concept of risk management with risk as a resource. In the report, the following topics are addressed: (1) the risk management approach; (2) planning risk and program life cycle; (3) key components of a typical program; (4) the risk trading methodology; (5) review and decision process; (6) merits of the proposed risk planning approach; and (7) recommendations.

Actual sexual risk and perceived risk of HIV acquisition among HIV-negative men who have sex with men in Toronto, Canada.

PubMed

Kesler, Maya A; Kaul, Rupert; Liu, Juan; Loutfy, Mona; Gesink, Dionne; Myers, Ted; Remis, Robert S

2016-03-11

Theory suggests that perceived human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk and actual HIV risk behaviour are cyclical whereby engaging in high risk behaviour can increase perceived risk, which initiates precautionary behaviour that reduces actual risk, and with time reduces perceived risk. While current perceived risk may impact future actual risk, it is less clear how previous actual risk shapes current perceived risk. If individuals do not base their current perceived risk on past behaviour, they lose the protective effect of perceived risk motivating precautionary behaviour. Our goal was to determine the impact of actual risk on perceived risk. Sexually active men who have sex with men (MSM) were recruited at the Maple Leaf Medical Clinic in downtown Toronto from September 2010 to June 2012. Participants completed a socio-behavioural questionnaire using an Audio Computer Assisted Self-Interview (ACASI). Actual HIV risk (primary predictor) was constructed by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to eight sexual risk survey questions and comprised three components which reflected sex with casual partners, sex with HIV-positive regular partners and sex with HIV unknown status regular partners. Perceived HIV risk (outcome) was measured by asking participants what the chances were that they would ever get HIV. Multivariable logistic regression was used to measure the association between actual and perceived HIV risk. One hundred and fifty HIV-negative MSM were recruited (median age 44.5 years [IQR 37-50 years]). Twenty percent of MSM perceived their HIV risk to be high. The odds of having a high perceived risk was significantly higher in those with high actual HIV risk indicated by low condom use with an HIV-positive regular partner compared to those with low actual HIV risk indicated by high condom use with an HIV-positive regular partner (Odds Ratio (OR) 18.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.65-203.45). Older age was associated with lower perceived risk but only age 40-49 compared to less than 30 was statistically significant (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.016-0.86). The odds of having high perceived risk was significantly associated with men who used poppers in the previous 6 months compared to those who did not use poppers (OR 5.64, 95% CI 1.20-26.48). Perceived HIV risk increased significantly as condom use with an HIV-positive regular partner decreased. However, perceived HIV risk was not associated with condom use with casual partners or HIV unknown status regular partners, even though these behaviours could be considered risky. The relationship between perceived and actual risk in HIV studies is complex and has implications on how health care workers address the issue of risky sexual behaviour and perceived risk.

Genetics of Diabetes

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Best Food Choices

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

Risk Management Concepts and Guidance

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-01

SUMMARY . ,den.ifying risks 5.3 PROGRAMMATIC RISK SUMMARY o Quantifying risk 5.4 SUPPORTABILITY RISK SUMMARY 55 SCHEDULE RISK SUMMARY * Use of tools to...with Life Cycle Cost Estimates," Defense Systems Management School, (Fort Belvoir). 1973. 207. Lieber, R.S., "New Approaches for Quantifying Risk and

Spectral risk measures: the risk quadrangle and optimal approximation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kouri, Drew P.

We develop a general risk quadrangle that gives rise to a large class of spectral risk measures. The statistic of this new risk quadrangle is the average value-at-risk at a specific confidence level. As such, this risk quadrangle generates a continuum of error measures that can be used for superquantile regression. For risk-averse optimization, we introduce an optimal approximation of spectral risk measures using quadrature. Lastly, we prove the consistency of this approximation and demonstrate our results through numerical examples.

Shuttle Risk Progression by Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri; Kahn, Joe; Thigpen, Eric; Zhu, Tony; Lo, Yohon

2011-01-01

Understanding the early mission risk and progression of risk as a vehicle gains insights through flight is important: . a) To the Shuttle Program to understand the impact of re-designs and operational changes on risk. . b) To new programs to understand reliability growth and first flight risk. . Estimation of Shuttle Risk Progression by flight: . a) Uses Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) and current knowledge to calculate early vehicle risk. . b) Shows impact of major Shuttle upgrades. . c) Can be used to understand first flight risk for new programs.

Spectral risk measures: the risk quadrangle and optimal approximation

DOE PAGES

Kouri, Drew P.

2018-05-24

We develop a general risk quadrangle that gives rise to a large class of spectral risk measures. The statistic of this new risk quadrangle is the average value-at-risk at a specific confidence level. As such, this risk quadrangle generates a continuum of error measures that can be used for superquantile regression. For risk-averse optimization, we introduce an optimal approximation of spectral risk measures using quadrature. Lastly, we prove the consistency of this approximation and demonstrate our results through numerical examples.

Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

PubMed Central

Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

2016-01-01

The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

Patient Access to Research

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Heart disease - risk factors

MedlinePlus

Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

PubMed

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision-Making Framework for Identifying, Assessing and Managing Health Risks (Health Canada, 2000). 4. Canadian Environmental Protection Act: Human Health Risk Assessment of Priority Substances(Health Canada, 1994). 5. CSA-Q8550 Risk Management: Guidelines for Decision-Makers (Canada Standards Association, 1997). 6. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process (US National Research Council, 1983). 7. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (US National Research Council, 1996). 8. Environmental Health Risk Assessment (enHealth Council of Australia, 2002). 9. A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (CCME, 1996). 10. Ecological Risk Assessments of Priority Substances Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (Environment Canada, 1996).11. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (US EPA, 1998b). 12. Proposed Model for Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Management (Rampal & Sadhra, 1999). Based on the extensive review of these frameworks, seven key elements that should be included in a comprehensive framework for human health, ecological, and occupational risk assessment and management were identified: 1. Problem formulation stage. 2. Stakeholder involvement. 3. Communication. 4. Quantitative risk assessment components. 5. Iteration and evaluation. 6. Informed decision making. 7. Flexibility. On the basis of this overarching approach to risk management, the following "checklist" to ensure a good risk management decision is proposed: - Make sure you're solving the right problem. - Consider the problem and the risk within the full context of the situation, using a broad perspective. - Acknowledge, incorporate, and balance the multiple dimensions of risk. - Ensure the highest degree of reliability for all components of the risk management process. - Involve interested and effected parties from the outset of the process. - Commit to honest and open communication between all parties. - Employ continuous evaluation throughout the process (formative, process, and outcome evaluation), and be prepared to change the decision if new information becomes available. Comprehensive and sound principles are critical to providing structure and integrity to risk management frameworks. Guiding principles are intended to provide an ethical grounding for considering the many factors involved in risk management decision making. Ten principles are proposed to guide risk management decision making. The first four principles were adapted and modified from Hattis (1996) along with the addition of two more principles by Hrudey (2000). These have been supplemented by another four principles to make the 10 presented. The principles are based in fundamental ethical principles and values. These principles are intended to be aspirational rather than prescriptive--their application requires flexibility and practical judgement. Risk management is inherently a process in search of balance among competing interests and concerns. Each risk management decision will be "balancing act" of competing priorities, and trade-offs may sometimes have to be made between seemingly conflicting principles. The 10 decision-making principles, with the corresponding ethical principle in italics are: 1. Do more good than harm (beneficence, nonmalificence).- The ultimate goal of good risk management is to prevent or minimize risk, or to "do good" as much as possible. 2. Fair process of decision making (fairness, natural justice). - Risk management must be just, equitable, impartial, unbiased, dispassionate, and objective as far as possible given the circumstances of each situation. 3. Ensure an equitable distribution of risk (equity). - An equitable process of risk management would ensure fair outcomes and equal treatment of all concerned through an equal distribution of benefits and burdens (includes the concept of distributive justice, i.e., equal opportunities for all individuals). 4. Seek optimal use of limited risk management resources (utility). - Optimal risk management demands using limited resources where they will achieve the most risk reduction of overall benefit. 5. Promise no more risk management that can be delivered (honesty).- Unrealistic expectations of risk management can be avoided with honest and candid public accounting of what we know and don't know, and what we can and can't do using risk assessment and risk management. 6. Impose no more risk that you would tolerate yourself (the Golden Rule). - The Golden Rule is important in risk management because it forces decision makers to abandon complete detachment from their decisions so they may understand the perspectives of those affected. 7. Be cautious in the face of uncertainty ("better safe than sorry"). - Risk management must adopt a cautious approach when faced with a potentially serous risk, even if the evidence is uncertain. 8. Foster informed risk decision making for all stakeholders (autonomy). - Fostering autonomous decision making involves both providing people with the opportunity to participate, and full and honest disclosure of all the information required for informed decisions. 9. Risk management processes must be flexible and evolutionary to be open to new knowledge and understanding (evolution, evaluation, iterative process). - The incorporation of new evidence requires that risk management be a flexible, evolutionary, and iterative process, and that evaluation is employed at the beginning and througthout the process. 10. the complete elimination fo risk is not possible (life is not risk free).- Risk is pervasive in our society, and cannot be totally eliminated despite an oft-expressed public desire for "zero risk". However, the level of risk that may ve tolerable by any individual is dependent on values of beliefs, as well as scientific information. Each agency must continue to employ a process that meets the needs of their specific application of risk management. A single approach cannot satisfy the diverse areas to which risk decisions are being applied. However, with increasing experience in the application of the approaches, we are evolving to a common understanding of the essential elements and principles required for successful risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Risk management will continue to be a balancing act of competing priorities and needs. Flexibility and good judgement are ultimately the key to successfully making appropriate risk decisions.

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

PubMed

Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

2017-08-01

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

Impact of Genetic Testing and Family Health History Based Risk Counseling on Behavior Change and Cognitive Precursors for Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Wu, R Ryanne; Myers, Rachel A; Hauser, Elizabeth R; Vorderstrasse, Allison; Cho, Alex; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Orlando, Lori A

2017-02-01

Family health history (FHH) in the context of risk assessment has been shown to positively impact risk perception and behavior change. The added value of genetic risk testing is less certain. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) FHH and genetic risk counseling on behavior and its cognitive precursors. Subjects were non-diabetic patients randomized to counseling that included FHH +/- T2D genetic testing. Measurements included weight, BMI, fasting glucose at baseline and 12 months and behavioral and cognitive precursor (T2D risk perception and control over disease development) surveys at baseline, 3, and 12 months. 391 subjects enrolled of which 312 completed the study. Behavioral and clinical outcomes did not differ across FHH or genetic risk but cognitive precursors did. Higher FHH risk was associated with a stronger perceived T2D risk (p Kendall  < 0.001) and with a perception of "serious" risk (p Kendall  < 0.001). Genetic risk did not influence risk perception, but was correlated with an increase in perception of "serious" risk for moderate (p Kendall  = 0.04) and average FHH risk subjects (p Kendall  = 0.01), though not for the high FHH risk group. Perceived control over T2D risk was high and not affected by FHH or genetic risk. FHH appears to have a strong impact on cognitive precursors of behavior change, suggesting it could be leveraged to enhance risk counseling, particularly when lifestyle change is desirable. Genetic risk was able to alter perceptions about the seriousness of T2D risk in those with moderate and average FHH risk, suggesting that FHH could be used to selectively identify individuals who may benefit from genetic risk testing.

Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

2016-01-01

In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from radiation and smoking risk” enhanced both subjective and objective understanding without diminishing trust in all participants and in the high dread-risk perception group; use of other risk-comparison information could lead the public to overestimate risk. PMID:27802304

The Role of Risk and Risk Management in Experiential Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mobley, Michael

A monograph examines the role of risk and risk management in experiential education, particularly stress/challenge programming. Definitions of risk are presented. The importance of risk and stress in experiential education is emphasized. Implications of subjective versus objective risk assessment in adventure education are discussed, with…

CONSIDERATIONS IN RISK COMMUNICATION: A DIGEST OF RISK COMMUNICATION AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Risk communication is the process of informing people about hazards. Like all communication, communicating risk is a two-way exchange in which you inform the target community about possible hazards, but also gather information about those affected by the risk. The purpose of risk...

How to Treat Gestational Diabetes

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Living with Diabetes: Foot Complications

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Hyperosmolar Hyperglycemic Nonketotic Syndrome (HHNS)

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diabetes Risk Test Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Lower Your Risk donate en -- A Future Without ...

Adolescent risk-taking under stressed and non-stressed conditions: Conservative, calculating and impulsive types

PubMed Central

Johnson, Sara B.; Dariotis, Jacinda K.; Wang, Constance

2012-01-01

Purpose Adolescent risk-taking may result from heightened susceptibility to environmental cues, particularly emotion and potential rewards. This study evaluated the impact of social stress on adolescent risk-taking, accounting for individual differences in risk-taking under non-stressed conditions. Methods Eighty-nine older adolescents completed a computerized risk-taking and decision-making battery at baseline. At follow-up, participants were randomized to a control condition, which repeated this battery, or an experimental condition, which included a social and cognitive stressor before the battery. Baseline risk-taking data were cluster-analyzed to create groups of adolescents with similar risk-taking tendencies. The degree to which these risk-taking tendencies predicted risk-taking by stress condition at follow-up was assessed. Results Participants in the stress condition took more risks those in the no-stress condition. However, differences in risk-taking under stress were related to baseline risk-taking tendencies. We observed three types of risk-takers: conservative, calculated, and impulsive. Impulsives were less accurate and planful under stress, calculated risk-takers took fewer risks, and conservatives engaged in low risk-taking regardless of stress. Conclusions As a group, adolescents are more likely to take risks in “hot cognitive” than in “cold cognitive” situations. However, there is significant variability in adolescents’ behavioral responses to stress related to trait-level risk-taking tendencies. Implications and contribution Many, but not all, adolescents take more risks under social stress. Parents and clinicians should be aware that behavior is a function of both personality and environmental cues. Interventions may help adolescents recognize their risk-taking propensity and environmental “triggers” that undermine their attempts to control their behavior. PMID:22794532

Perceived risk of cervical cancer among pre-screening age women (18-24 years): the impact of information about cervical cancer risk factors and the causal role of HPV.

PubMed

Nadarzynski, Tomasz; Waller, Jo; Robb, Kathryn A; Marlow, Laura A V

2012-10-01

Current National Health Service cervical screening information does not explain that the cause of cervical cancer is a sexually transmitted infection (human papillomavirus (HPV)). This study aimed to consider the impact that providing this information, in addition to risk factor information, might have on women's perceived risk of cervical cancer. Female students aged 18-24 years (n=606) completed a web-based survey and were randomised to receive (1) control information about cervical cancer; (2) details of the link between HPV and cervical cancer; (3) risk factor information or (4) details about the link with HPV + risk factor information. Risk perceptions for cervical cancer were assessed before and after reading the information. There was a significant difference in perceived risk of cervical cancer between the four groups following information exposure (p=0.002). Compared with the control group, risk perceptions were significantly lower among women given risk factor information but not among those informed about HPV. There were significant group by risk factor interactions for smoking status (p<0.001), age of first sex (p=0.018) and number of sexual partners (p<0.001). Risk perceptions were lower among women considered at low risk and given risk factor information, but there was no association between information group and perceived risk for high-risk women. Providing risk factor information appears to reduce cervical cancer risk perceptions, but learning about the aetiological role of HPV appears to have no impact on risk perceptions. Incorporating brief information about HPV as the cause of cervical cancer should be in addition to, rather than in place of, risk factor information.

Age Patterns in Risk Taking Across the World.

PubMed

Duell, Natasha; Steinberg, Laurence; Icenogle, Grace; Chein, Jason; Chaudhary, Nandita; Di Giunta, Laura; Dodge, Kenneth A; Fanti, Kostas A; Lansford, Jennifer E; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta; Skinner, Ann T; Sorbring, Emma; Tapanya, Sombat; Uribe Tirado, Liliana Maria; Alampay, Liane Peña; Al-Hassan, Suha M; Takash, Hanan M S; Bacchini, Dario; Chang, Lei

2018-05-01

Epidemiological data indicate that risk behaviors are among the leading causes of adolescent morbidity and mortality worldwide. Consistent with this, laboratory-based studies of age differences in risk behavior allude to a peak in adolescence, suggesting that adolescents demonstrate a heightened propensity, or inherent inclination, to take risks. Unlike epidemiological reports, studies of risk taking propensity have been limited to Western samples, leaving questions about the extent to which heightened risk taking propensity is an inherent or culturally constructed aspect of adolescence. In the present study, age patterns in risk-taking propensity (using two laboratory tasks: the Stoplight and the BART) and real-world risk taking (using self-reports of health and antisocial risk taking) were examined in a sample of 5227 individuals (50.7% female) ages 10-30 (M = 17.05 years, SD = 5.91) from 11 Western and non-Western countries (China, Colombia, Cyprus, India, Italy, Jordan, Kenya, the Philippines, Sweden, Thailand, and the US). Two hypotheses were tested: (1) risk taking follows an inverted-U pattern across age groups, peaking earlier on measures of risk taking propensity than on measures of real-world risk taking, and (2) age patterns in risk taking propensity are more consistent across countries than age patterns in real-world risk taking. Overall, risk taking followed the hypothesized inverted-U pattern across age groups, with health risk taking evincing the latest peak. Age patterns in risk taking propensity were more consistent across countries than age patterns in real-world risk taking. Results suggest that although the association between age and risk taking is sensitive to measurement and culture, around the world, risk taking is generally highest among late adolescents.

Perceived and actual risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in Korea: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Boo, Sunjoo; Froelicher, Erika S; Yun, Ju-Hui; Kim, Ye-Won; Jung, Ju-Yang; Suh, Chang-Hee

2016-10-01

The purposes of this study were to compare the perceived and actual 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to evaluate the influence of cardiovascular risk factors on perceived CVD risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Korea. Additionally, the attainment of CVD prevention guideline goals by 3 levels of CVD risk (low, moderate, and high) was presented.For this cross-sectional study, data were collected from 208 patients with RA. Actual CVD risk was estimated with the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and goal attainment was assessed based on the European League Against Rheumatism guidelines. Actual CVD risk and perceived risk were compared with cross-tabulation. Chi-square tests were used to evaluate differences in cardiovascular risk factors by perceived risk. Levels of goal attainment were presented in percentages.Among patients with RA, 13.9% were identified as being at high risk for CVD, whereas 39.9% were at moderate risk, and 46.2% were at low risk. The majority of those at high risk (96.6%) underestimated their risk for CVD. The use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medications and having a parental history of CVD significantly increased the likelihood that subjects with RA would perceive themselves as being at high risk for CVD. Diabetes, smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity did not affect perceived risk. A substantial proportion of the subjects with RA did not meet the prevention guideline goals.Patients with RA who are at increased risk of developing CVD must be managed as soon as possible to attain the guideline goals and, accordingly, lower their risk of future CVD.

'I should have taken that further' - missed opportunities during cardiovascular risk assessment in patients with psoriasis in UK primary care settings: a mixed-methods study.

PubMed

Nelson, Pauline A; Kane, Karen; Chisholm, Anna; Pearce, Christina J; Keyworth, Christopher; Rutter, Martin K; Chew-Graham, Carolyn A; Griffiths, Christopher E M; Cordingley, Lis

2016-10-01

Unhealthy lifestyle is common in psoriasis, contributing to worsening disease and increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. CVD risk communication should improve patients' understanding of risk and risk-reducing behaviours; however, the effectiveness of risk screening is debated and evaluation currently limited. To examine the process of assessing for and communicating about CVD risk in the context of psoriasis. Mixed-methods study in English general practices to (i) determine proportions of CVD risk factors among patients with psoriasis at risk assessment and (ii) examine patient and practitioner experiences of risk communication to identify salient 'process' issues. Audio recordings of consultations informed in-depth interviews with patients and practitioners using tape-assisted recall, analysed with framework analysis. Patients with psoriasis (n = 287) undergoing CVD risk assessment; 29 patients and 12 practitioners interviewed. A high proportion of patients had risk factor levels apparent at risk assessment above NICE recommendations: very high waist circumference (52%), obesity (35%), raised blood pressure (29%), smoking (18%) and excess alcohol consumption (18%). There was little evidence of personalized discussion about CVD risk and behaviour change support in consultations. Professionals reported a lack of training in behaviour change, while patients wanted to discuss CVD risk/risk reduction and believed practitioners to be influential in supporting lifestyle management. Despite high levels of risk factors identified, opportunities may be missed in consultations to support patients with psoriasis to understand CVD risk/risk reduction. Practitioners need training in behaviour change techniques to capitalize on 'teachable moments' and increase the effectiveness of risk screening. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly adults using SCORE OP model in a Latin American population: The experience from Ecuador.

PubMed

Sisa, Ivan

2018-02-09

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is predicted to increase in Latin America countries due to their rapidly aging population. However, there is very little information about CVD risk assessment as a primary preventive measure in this high-risk population. We predicted the national risk of developing CVD in Ecuadorian elderly population using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation in Older Persons (SCORE OP) High and Low models by risk categories/CVD risk region in 2009. Data on national cardiovascular risk factors were obtained from the Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento. We computed the predicted 5-year risk of CVD risk and compared the extent of agreement and reclassification in stratifying high-risk individuals between SCORE OP High and Low models. Analyses were done by risk categories, CVD risk region, and sex. In 2009, based on SCORE OP Low model almost 42% of elderly adults living in Ecuador were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period. The extent of agreement between SCORE OP High and Low risk prediction models was moderate (Cohen's kappa test of 0.5), 34% of individuals approximately were reclassified into different risk categories and a third of the population would benefit from a pharmacologic intervention to reduce the CVD risk. Forty-two percent of elderly Ecuadorians were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period, indicating an urgent need to tailor primary preventive measures for this vulnerable and high-risk population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Affect-laden imagery and risk taking: the mediating role of stress and risk perception.

PubMed

Traczyk, Jakub; Sobkow, Agata; Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how affect-laden imagery that evokes emotional stress influences risk perception and risk taking in real-life scenarios. In a series of three studies, we instructed participants to imagine the consequences of risky scenarios and then rate the intensity of the experienced stress, perceived risk and their willingness to engage in risky behavior. Study 1 showed that people spontaneously imagine negative rather than positive risk consequences, which are directly related to their lower willingness to take risk. Moreover, this relationship was mediated by feelings of stress and risk perception. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings by showing that imagining negative risk consequences evokes psychophysiological stress responses observed in elevated blood pressure. Finally, in Study 3, we once again demonstrated that a higher intensity of mental images of negative risk consequences, as measured by enhanced brain activity in the parieto-occipital lobes, leads to a lower propensity to take risk. Furthermore, individual differences in creating vivid and intense negative images of risk consequences moderated the strength of the relationship between risk perception and risk taking. Participants who created more vivid and intense images of negative risk consequences paid less attention to the assessments of riskiness in rating their likelihood to take risk. To summarize, we showed that feelings of emotional stress and perceived riskiness mediate the relationship between mental imagery and risk taking, whereas individual differences in abilities to create vivid mental images may influence the degree to which more cognitive risk assessments are used in the risk-taking process.

Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

2017-06-01

In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

Addressing risks to advance mental health research.

PubMed

Iltis, Ana S; Misra, Sahana; Dunn, Laura B; Brown, Gregory K; Campbell, Amy; Earll, Sarah A; Glowinski, Anne; Hadley, Whitney B; Pies, Ronald; Dubois, James M

2013-12-01

Risk communication and management are essential to the ethical conduct of research, yet addressing risks may be time consuming for investigators and institutional review boards may reject study designs that seem too risky. This can discourage needed research, particularly in higher-risk protocols or those enrolling potentially vulnerable individuals, such as those with some level of suicidality. Improved mechanisms for addressing research risks may facilitate much needed psychiatric research. To provide mental health researchers with practical approaches to (1) identify and define various intrinsic research risks, (2) communicate these risks to others (eg, potential participants, regulatory bodies, and society), (3) manage these risks during the course of a study, and (4) justify the risks. As part of a National Institute of Mental Health-funded scientific meeting series, a public conference and a closed-session expert panel meeting were held on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. The expert panel reviewed the literature with a focus on empirical studies and developed recommendations for best practices and further research on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. No institutional review board-review was required because there were no human subjects. Challenges, current data, practical strategies, and topics for future research are addressed for each of 4 key areas pertaining to management and disclosure of risks in clinical trials: identifying and defining risks, communicating risks, managing risks during studies, and justifying research risks. Empirical data on risk communication, managing risks, and the benefits of research can support the ethical conduct of mental health research and may help investigators better conceptualize and confront risks and to gain institutional review board-approval.

Affect-Laden Imagery and Risk Taking: The Mediating Role of Stress and Risk Perception

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how affect-laden imagery that evokes emotional stress influences risk perception and risk taking in real-life scenarios. In a series of three studies, we instructed participants to imagine the consequences of risky scenarios and then rate the intensity of the experienced stress, perceived risk and their willingness to engage in risky behavior. Study 1 showed that people spontaneously imagine negative rather than positive risk consequences, which are directly related to their lower willingness to take risk. Moreover, this relationship was mediated by feelings of stress and risk perception. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings by showing that imagining negative risk consequences evokes psychophysiological stress responses observed in elevated blood pressure. Finally, in Study 3, we once again demonstrated that a higher intensity of mental images of negative risk consequences, as measured by enhanced brain activity in the parieto-occipital lobes, leads to a lower propensity to take risk. Furthermore, individual differences in creating vivid and intense negative images of risk consequences moderated the strength of the relationship between risk perception and risk taking. Participants who created more vivid and intense images of negative risk consequences paid less attention to the assessments of riskiness in rating their likelihood to take risk. To summarize, we showed that feelings of emotional stress and perceived riskiness mediate the relationship between mental imagery and risk taking, whereas individual differences in abilities to create vivid mental images may influence the degree to which more cognitive risk assessments are used in the risk-taking process. PMID:25816238

Women and Diabetes: Frequently Asked Questions

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

A1C and eAG

MedlinePlus

... Risk? Home Prevention Diagnosing Diabetes and Learning About Prediabetes Type 2 Diabetes Risk Test Lower Your Risk ... Diagnosis Lower Your Risk Risk Test Alert Day Prediabetes My Health Advisor Tools to Know Your Risk ...

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

On portfolio risk diversification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

2017-06-01

The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

Risk in Science Instruction. The Realist and Constructivist Paradigms of Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Julia; Hammann, Marcus

2017-11-01

Risk is always present in people's lives: diseases, new technologies, socio-scientific issues (SSIs) such as climate change, and advances in medicine—to name just a few examples—all carry risks. To be able to navigate risks in everyday life, as well as to participate in social debate on risk-related issues, students need to develop risk competence. Science education can be a powerful tool in supporting students' risk competence, which is an important component of scientific literacy. As there are different definitions of risk within the scientific community, the aims of this article are (1) to review the literature on two major theoretical frameworks for conceptualising risk, the realist, and the constructivist paradigms of risk and (2) to connect both in order to suggest a working definition of what can be understood as risk competence in science instruction.

Classification of drugs with different risk profiles.

PubMed

Saedder, Eva Aggerholm; Brock, Birgitte; Nielsen, Lars Peter; Bonnerup, Dorthe Krogsgaard; Lisby, Marianne

2015-08-01

A risk stratification approach is needed to identify patients at high risk of medication errors and a resulting high need of medication review. The aim of this study was to perform risk stratification (distinguishing between low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs) for drugs found to cause serious adverse reactions due to medication errors. The study employed a modified Delphi technique. Drugs from a systematic literature search were included into two rounds of a Delphi process. A panel of experts was asked to evaluate each identified drug's potential for harm and for clinically relevant drug-drug interactions on a scale from 1 (low risk) to 9 (high risk). A total of 36 experts were appointed to serve on the panel. Consensus was reached for 29/57 (51%) drugs or drug classes that cause harm, and for 32/57 (56%) of the drugs or drug classes that cause interactions. For the remaining drugs, a decision was made based on the median score. Two lists, one stating the drugs' potential for causing harm and the other stating clinically relevant drug-drug interactions, were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs. Based on a modified Delphi technique, we created two lists of drugs stratified into a low-risk, a medium-risk and a high-risk group of clinically relevant interactions or risk of harm to patients. The lists could be incorporated into a risk-scoring tool that stratifies the performance of medication reviews according to patients' risk of experiencing adverse reactions. none. not relevant.

Assessing the effect of public health information by incentivised risk estimation: An example on Swedish snus.

PubMed

Bergsvik, Daniel; Rogeberg, Ole

2018-04-01

The provision of accurate information on health damaging behaviours and products is a widely accepted and widespread governmental task. It is easily mismanaged. This study demonstrates a simple method which can help to evaluate whether such information corrects recipient risk beliefs. Participants assess risks numerically, before and after being exposed to a relevant risk communication. Accuracy is incentivised by awarding financial prizes to answers closest to a pursued risk belief. To illustrate this method, 228 students from the University of Oslo, Norway, were asked to estimate the mortality risk of Swedish snus and cigarettes twice, before and after being exposed to one of three risk communications with information on the health dangers of snus. The data allow us to measure how participants updated their risk beliefs after being exposed to different risk communications. Risk information from the government strongly distorted risk perceptions for snus. A newspaper article discussing the relative risks of cigarettes and snus reduced belief errors regarding snus risks, but increased belief errors regarding smoking. The perceived quality of the risk communication was not associated with decreased belief errors. Public health information can potentially make the public less informed on risks about harmful products or behaviours. This risk can be reduced by targeting identified, measurable belief errors and empirically assessing how alternative communications affect these. The proposed method of incentivised risk estimation might be helpful in future assessments of risk communications. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Affective Bases of Risk Perception: Negative Feelings and Stress Mediate the Relationship between Mental Imagery and Risk Perception.

PubMed

Sobkow, Agata; Traczyk, Jakub; Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz

2016-01-01

Recent research has documented that affect plays a crucial role in risk perception. When no information about numerical risk estimates is available (e.g., probability of loss or magnitude of consequences), people may rely on positive and negative affect toward perceived risk. However, determinants of affective reactions to risks are poorly understood. In a series of three experiments, we addressed the question of whether and to what degree mental imagery eliciting negative affect and stress influences risk perception. In each experiment, participants were instructed to visualize consequences of risk taking and to rate riskiness. In Experiment 1, participants who imagined negative risk consequences reported more negative affect and perceived risk as higher compared to the control condition. In Experiment 2, we found that this effect was driven by affect elicited by mental imagery rather than its vividness and intensity. In this study, imagining positive risk consequences led to lower perceived risk than visualizing negative risk consequences. Finally, we tested the hypothesis that negative affect related to higher perceived risk was caused by negative feelings of stress. In Experiment 3, we introduced risk-irrelevant stress to show that participants in the stress condition rated perceived risk as higher in comparison to the control condition. This experiment showed that higher ratings of perceived risk were influenced by psychological stress. Taken together, our results demonstrate that affect-laden mental imagery dramatically changes risk perception through negative affect (i.e., psychological stress).

Change in risk status during labor in a large Norwegian obstetric department: a prospective study.

PubMed

Lippert, Tonje; Nesje, Ellen; Koss, Karen Sofie; Oian, Pål

2013-06-01

This study aimed to observe risk status on admission to hospital and change in risk status during labor. A prospective observational study allocating all women into low-risk and high-risk groups on admittance to hospital and during labor based on prespecified risk criteria. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology in a district hospital. All 6406 deliveries from 2 May 2004 to 30 September 2006. A special form was filled out for all women admitted to the department in labor classifying them as either low or high risk. A change in risk status during labor was also recorded. Risk status (low and high risk) on admittance to hospital and change in risk status during first stage of labor. On admittance, 67% of women with an intended vaginal delivery were low risk. During the first stage of labor, 41% of the low-risk women changed risk status. Use of epidural anesthesia gave rise to 73% of the risk changes during the first stage of labor and use of oxytocin caused 12%. Two-thirds of the women were low risk before labor, and 39% of these remained low-risk at the end of the first stage of labor. The main reason for a change of risk status in the obstetric department was the use of epidural anesthesia. © 2013 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica © 2013 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

The Affective Bases of Risk Perception: Negative Feelings and Stress Mediate the Relationship between Mental Imagery and Risk Perception

PubMed Central

Sobkow, Agata; Traczyk, Jakub; Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz

2016-01-01

Recent research has documented that affect plays a crucial role in risk perception. When no information about numerical risk estimates is available (e.g., probability of loss or magnitude of consequences), people may rely on positive and negative affect toward perceived risk. However, determinants of affective reactions to risks are poorly understood. In a series of three experiments, we addressed the question of whether and to what degree mental imagery eliciting negative affect and stress influences risk perception. In each experiment, participants were instructed to visualize consequences of risk taking and to rate riskiness. In Experiment 1, participants who imagined negative risk consequences reported more negative affect and perceived risk as higher compared to the control condition. In Experiment 2, we found that this effect was driven by affect elicited by mental imagery rather than its vividness and intensity. In this study, imagining positive risk consequences led to lower perceived risk than visualizing negative risk consequences. Finally, we tested the hypothesis that negative affect related to higher perceived risk was caused by negative feelings of stress. In Experiment 3, we introduced risk-irrelevant stress to show that participants in the stress condition rated perceived risk as higher in comparison to the control condition. This experiment showed that higher ratings of perceived risk were influenced by psychological stress. Taken together, our results demonstrate that affect-laden mental imagery dramatically changes risk perception through negative affect (i.e., psychological stress). PMID:27445901

Guiding resource allocations based on terrorism risk.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H

2007-06-01

Establishing tolerable levels of risk is one of the most contentious and important risk management decisions. With every regulatory or funding decision for a risk management program, society decides whether or not risk is tolerable. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness to prevent, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism by providing financial assistance for planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas. After briefly reviewing definitions of terrorism risk and rationales for risk-based resource allocation, this article compares estimates of terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004 to other federal risk management decisions. This comparison suggests that UASI allocations are generally consistent with other federal risk management decisions. However, terrorism risk in several cities that received funding is below levels that are often tolerated in other risk management contexts. There are several reasons why the conclusions about terrorism risk being de minimis in specific cities should be challenged. Some of these surround the means used to estimate terrorism risk for this study. Others involve the comparison that is made to other risk management decisions. However, many of the observations reported are valid even if reported terrorism risk estimates are several orders of magnitude too low. Discussion of resource allocation should be extended to address risk tolerance and include explicit comparisons, like those presented here, to other risk management decisions.

There is more to risk and safety planning than dramatic risks: Mental health nurses' risk assessment and safety-management practice.

PubMed

Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael

2016-04-01

Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. © 2015 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Empirical analysis of farmers' drought risk perception: objective factors, personal circumstances, and social influence.

PubMed

Duinen, Rianne van; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Peter; Veen, Anne van der

2015-04-01

Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

PubMed

Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

2010-11-01

An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Effective Risk Management in Innovative Projects: A Case Study of the Construction of Energy-efficient, Sustainable Building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krechowicz, Maria

2017-10-01

Many construction projects fail to meet deadlines or they exceed the assumed budget. This scenario is particularly common in the case of innovative projects, in which too late identification of a high risk of delays and exceeding the assumed costs makes a potentially profitable project untenable. A high risk level, far exceeding the level of risk in standard non-innovative projects, is a characteristic feature of the realization phase of innovative projects. This is associated not only with greater complexity of the design and construction phases, but also with the problems with application of new technologies and prototype solutions, lack of qualified personnel with suitable expertise in specialized areas, and with the ability to properly identify the gaps between available and required knowledge and skills. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in innovative projects on the example of the realization phase of an innovative, energy-efficient and sustainable building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow - DLJM Lab, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. In this paper, a new approach to risk management process for innovative construction projects is proposed. Risk management process was divided into five stages: gathering information, identification of the important unwanted events, first risk assessment, development and choice of risk reaction strategies, assessment of the residual risk after introducing risk reactions. 18 unwanted events in an innovative construction project were identified. The first risk assessment was carried out using two-parametric risk matrix, in which the probability of unwanted event occurrence and its consequences were analysed. Three levels of risks were defined: tolerable, controlled and uncontrolled. Risk reactions to each defined unwanted event were developed. The following risk reaction types were considered: risk retention, risk reduction, risk transfer and risk elimination. Three-parametric risk matrix was developed to make it possible to assess risk after implementing risk reactions. The possibility of implementing risk management was inversely proportional to the probability of unwanted event occurrence and its contribution to the project outcome. Introducing this risk management strategy allowed to significantly reduce the risk of the innovative construction project. It proved to be an effective tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level. It had a significant contribution to carrying out the project within the assumed time, budget and quality standards.

The Violence Risk Scale: Predictive Validity and Linking Changes in Risk with Violent Recidivism in a Sample of High-Risk Offenders with Psychopathic Traits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Kathy; Olver, Mark E.; Wong, Stephen C. P.

2013-01-01

The Violence Risk Scale (VRS) uses ratings of static and dynamic risk predictors to assess violence risk, identify targets for treatment, and assess changes in risk following treatment. The VRS was rated pre- and posttreatment on a sample of 150 males, mostly high-risk violent offenders many with psychopathic personality traits. These individuals…

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

PubMed Central

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.

2009-10-01

This study examines flood risk perceptions of individuals in the Netherlands using a survey of approximately 1000 homeowners. Perceptions of a range of aspects of flood risk are elicited. Various statistical models are used to estimate the influence of socioeconomic and geographical characteristics, personal experience with flooding, knowledge of flood threats, and individual risk attitudes on shaping risk belief. The study shows that in general, perceptions of flood risk are low. An analysis of the factors determining risk perceptions provides four main insights relevant for policy makers and insurers. First, differences in expected risk are consistently related to actual risk levels, since individuals in the vicinity of a main river and low-lying areas generally have elevated risk perceptions. Second, individuals in areas unprotected by dikes tend to underestimate their risk of flooding. Third, individuals with little knowledge of the causes of flood events have lower perceptions of flood risk. Fourth, there is some evidence that older and more highly educated individuals have a lower flood risk perception. The findings indicate that increasing knowledge of citizens about the causes of flooding may increase flood risk awareness. It is especially important to target individuals who live in areas unprotected by dike infrastructure, since they tend to be unaware of or ignore the high risk exposure faced.

Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

PubMed

Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

2013-11-30

Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision-making competence predicts domain-specific risk attitudes

PubMed Central

Weller, Joshua A.; Ceschi, Andrea; Randolph, Caleb

2015-01-01

Decision-making competence (DMC) reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804) completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits) across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC → expected benefits → risk-taking path than the DMC → perceived risk → risk-taking path, especially for behaviors that may be considered more maladaptive in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of a specific behavior. PMID:26029128

Gender, Race, and Risk: Intersectional Risk Management in the Sale of Sex Online.

PubMed

Moorman, Jessica D; Harrison, Kristen

2016-09-01

Sex worker experience of risk (e.g., physical violence or rape) is shaped by race, gender, and context. For web-based sex workers, experience of risk is comparatively minimal; what is unclear is how web-based sex workers manage risk and if online advertising plays a role in risk management. Building on intersectionality theory and research exploring risk management in sex work, we content-analyzed 600 escort advertisements from Backpage.com ( http://www.backpage.com ) to explore risk management in web-based sex work. To guide our research we asked: Do advertisements contain risk management messages? Does the use of risk management messaging differ by sex worker race or gender? Which groups have the highest overall use of risk management messages? Through a multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) we found that advertisements contained risk management messages and that uses of these phrases varied by race and gender. Blacks, women, and transgender women drove the use of risk management messages. Black and White transgender women had the highest overall use of these phrases. We conclude that risk management is an intersectional practice and that the use of risk management messages is a venue-specific manifestation of broader risk management priorities found in all venues where sex is sold.

[Perception of health risks: psychological and social factors].

PubMed

Kurzenhäuser, S; Epp, A

2009-12-01

This article reviews central findings and current developments of psychological and sociological research on the perception of health risks. Risk perception is influenced by numerous psychological, social, political, and cultural factors. These factors can be categorized into (a) risk characteristics, (b) characteristics of the risk perceiving person and his/her situation, and (c) characteristics of risk communication. Thus, besides individual cognitive and affective processing of risk information, social processes of risk amplification (e.g., media effects) are also involved in the construction of individual risk perceptions. We discuss the recommendations for health risk communication that follow from these findings with regard to different communication goals.

Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Lynne P.

2011-01-01

Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.

PubMed

Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

2014-04-01

risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies. a systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that reported qualitative research into risk perception in relation to high risk pregnancy. A metasynthesis was developed to describe and interpret the studies. the synthesis resulted in the identification of five themes: determinants of risk perception; not seeing it the way others do; normality versus risk; if the infant is ok, I׳m ok; managing risk. this metasynthesis suggests women at high risk during pregnancy use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status. It shows women are aware of the risks posed by their pregnancies but do not perceive risk in the same way as healthcare professionals. They will take steps to ensure the health of themselves and their infants but these may not include following all medical recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Context-Dependent Pathways of the Transmission of Risk from Communities to Individuals

PubMed Central

Lamont, Andrea E.; Van Horn, M. Lee; Hawkins, J. David

2016-01-01

Research has consistently documented the role of environmental risk factors in the onset of delinquent behavior among youth. Less is known about the processes through which these contextual risks are translated to individual youth behavior. The aim of the current study is to examine the role of family risk factors in the transmission of community risk. Data was obtained from a nationally representative sample of over 30,000 middle school youth and community key informants (CKI). A multilevel, moderated mediation model was estimated with family risk as the moderator of the effect of CKI ratings of community risk on youth perceptions of risk. Results showed that when youth came from low risk families (measured by parental use of positive family management strategies), youth perceptions of risk mediated the effects of community risk on youth delinquency; however, there was no evidence of a significant mediated effect under conditions of high risk (measured by poor family management). This appears to be because youth from high-risk families perceived their neighborhoods as high-risk, regardless of actual levels of risk (as reported by CKI). This study finds that the relationship between communities and adolescent behavior is complex and interacts with the family environment. PMID:25300758

Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

PubMed Central

Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

2014-01-01

Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

Defense Portfolio Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Valuation’s Risk Simulator..............................................46 viii 6. Palisade @RISK (http://www.palisade.com...71 APPENDIX B. PALISADE @RISK MODELING DATA AND ANALYSIS..................79 A. PALISADE @RISK...values ...81 3. @RISK Model Sorted by EMV ..............................................................82 4. Palisade @RISK Data Analysis

What are symptoms of an alcohol use disorder

MedlinePlus

... What's "low-risk" drinking? What's "at-risk" or "heavy" drinking? What's the harm? What are the risks? ... What's low-risk drinking? What's at-risk or heavy drinking? What's the harm? What are the risks? ...

77 FR 17219 - Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Standards Related to Reinsurance, Risk Corridors and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-23

... parts of the risk adjustment process--the risk adjustment model, the calculation of plan average... risk adjustment process. The risk adjustment model calculates individual risk scores. The calculation...'' to mean all data that are used in a risk adjustment model, the calculation of plan average actuarial...

Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP): Assessing Risk in Complex Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

5 1.7 Focus on Risk .................................................................................. 6 2 Defining Risk ...20 CMU/SEI-2005-TN-032 4.4 Extrinsic and Intrinsic Risk ............................................................. 21 5 Operational Risk in...Section 5 , "Operational Risk in Distributed Processes," we look at the characteristics of operational risk in processes where management control is

HIV Risk Perception, HIV Knowledge, and Sexual Risk Behaviors among Transgender Women in South Florida.

PubMed

De Santis, Joseph P; Hauglum, Shayne D; Deleon, Diego A; Provencio-Vasquez, Elias; Rodriguez, Allan E

2017-05-01

Transgender women experience a variety of factors that may contribute to HIV risk. The purpose of this study was to explore links among HIV risk perception, knowledge, and sexual risk behaviors of transgender women. A descriptive, correlational study design was used. Fifty transgender women from the South Florida area were enrolled in the study. Transgender women completed a demographic questionnaire and standardized instruments measuring HIV risk perception, knowledge, and sexual risk behaviors. Transgender women reported low levels of HIV risk perception, and had knowledge deficits regarding HIV risk/transmission. Some participants engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. Predictors of sexual risk behaviors among transgender women were identified. More research is needed with a larger sample size to continue studying factors that contribute to sexual risk behaviors in the understudied population of transgender women. Evidence-based guidelines are available to assist public health nurses in providing care for transgender women. Nurses must assess HIV perception risk and HIV knowledge and provide relevant education to transgender women on ways to minimize sexual risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Everyday places, heterosexist spaces and risk in contemporary Sweden.

PubMed

Nygren, Katarina Giritli; Öhman, Susanna; Olofsson, Anna

2016-01-01

Subjective feelings of risk are a central feature of everyday life, and evidence shows that people who do not conform to contemporary normative notions are often more exposed to everyday risks than others. Despite this, normative notions are rarely acknowledged as risk objects. By drawing on the theory of 'doing' and 'undoing' risk, which combines intersectional and risk theory, this study contributes new perspectives on the everyday risks in contemporary society that face people who many would label as being 'at risk' - lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. The study consists of five focus group interviews with lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people of different ages in Sweden. Findings pinpoint risks and how these are done and un-done in different spheres of interviewees' lives: the emotional risks prevailing in their private lives; the risk of discrimination at work and in relations with other institutions; and the risk of violence and harassment in public places. These risks are all related to the heteronormative order in which the mere fact of being lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender is perceived as a risk.

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

PubMed

Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

2018-05-01

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Defining moments in risk communication research: 1996-2005.

PubMed

McComas, Katherine A

2006-01-01

Ten years ago, scholars suggested that risk communication was embarking on a new phase that would give increased attention to the social contexts that surround and encroach on public responses to risk information. A decade later, many researchers have answered the call, with several defining studies examining the social and psychological influences on risk communication. This article reviews risk communication research appearing in the published literature since 1996. Among studies, social trust, the social amplification of risk framework, and the affect heuristic figured prominently. Also common were studies examining the influence of risk in the mass media. Among these were content analyses of media coverage of risk, as well as investigations of possible effects resulting from coverage. The use of mental models was a dominant method for developing risk message content. Other studies examined the use of risk comparisons, narratives, and visuals in the production of risk messages. Research also examined how providing information about a risk's severity, social norms, and efficacy influenced communication behaviors and intentions to follow risk reduction measures. Methods for conducting public outreach in health risk communication rounded out the literature.

Combining risk markers improves cardiovascular risk prediction in women.

PubMed

Holewijn, Suzanne; den Heijer, Martin; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Stalenhoef, Anton F H; de Graaf, Jacqueline

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular risk stratification could be improved by adding measures of atherosclerosis to current risk scores, especially in intermediate-risk individuals. We prospectively evaluated the additive value of different non-invasive risk markers (both individual and combined) for gender-specific cardiovascular risk stratification on top of traditional risk factors in a middle-aged population-based cohort. Carotid-plaques, IMT (intima-media thickness), ABI (ankle-brachial index), PWV (pulse-wave velocity), AIx (augmentation index), CAP (central augmented pressure) and CSP (central-systolic pressure) were measured in 1367 CVD (cardiovascular disease)-free participants aged 50-70 years old. Cardiovascular events were validated after a mean follow-up of 3.8 years. AUC (area-under-the-curve) and NRI (net reclassification improvement) analyses (total-NRI for all and clinical-NRI for intermediate-risk groups) were used to determine the additive value of individual and combined risk markers. Cardiovascular events occurred in 32 women and 39 men. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors explained 6.2% and 12.5% of the variance in CVD in women and men respectively. AUCs did not substantially increase by adding individual or combined non-invasive risk markers. Individual risk markers only improved reclassification in intermediate-risk women and more than in men; clinical-NRIs ranged between 48.0 and 173.1% in women and 8.9 and 20% in men. Combined non-invasive-risk markers improved reclassification in all women and even more in those at intermediate risk; 'IMT-presence-thickness-of-plaques' showed largest reclassification [total-NRI=33.8%, P=0.012; IDI (integrated-discrimination-improvement)=0.048, P=0.066; clinical-NRI=168.0%]. In men, combined non-invasive risk markers improved reclassification only in those at intermediate risk; 'PWV-AIx-CSP-CAP-IMT' showed the largest reclassification (total-NRI=14.5%, P=0.087; IDI=0.016, P=0.148; clinical-NRI=46.0%). In all women, cardiovascular risk stratification improved by adding combinations and in women at intermediate risk also by adding individual non-invasive risk markers. The additive value of individual and combined non-invasive risk markers in men is limited to men at intermediate risk only, and to a lesser extent than in women.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts versus UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine.

PubMed

Herath, Herath M Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Umesha, Dilini

2015-01-01

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, and assessment of their cardiac risk is important for preventive strategies. The Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka has recommended World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for cardiac risk assessment in individuals with T2DM. However, the most suitable cardiac risk assessment tool for Sri Lankans with T2DM has not been studied. This study was designed to evaluate the performance of two cardiac risk assessments tools; WHO/ISH charts and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Cardiac risk assessments were done in 2,432 patients with T2DM attending a diabetes clinic in Southern Sri Lanka using the two risk assessment tools. Validity of two assessment tools was further assessed by their ability to recognize individuals with raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and raised diastolic blood pressure in a cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n=332). WHO/ISH charts identified 78.4% of subjects as low cardiac risk whereas the UKPDS risk engine categorized 52.3% as low cardiac risk (P<0.001). In the risk categories of 10%-<20%, the UKPDS risk engine identified higher proportions of patients (28%) compared to WHO/ISH charts (7%). Approximately 6% of subjects were classified as low cardiac risk (<10%) by WHO/ISH when UKPDS recognized them as cardiac risk of >20%. Agreement between the two tools was poor (κ value =0.144, P<0.01). Approximately 82% of individuals categorized as low cardiac risk by WHO/ISH had higher LDL cholesterol than the therapeutic target of 100 mg/dL. There is a significant discrepancy between the two assessment tools with WHO/ISH risk chart recognizing higher proportions of patients having low cardiac risk than the UKPDS risk engine. Risk assessment by both assessment tools demonstrated poor sensitivity in identifying those with treatable levels of LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure.

Implementation of Risk Management in NASA's CEV Project- Ensuring Mission Success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Jeevan; Holsomback, Jerry D.

2005-12-01

Most project managers know that Risk Management (RM) is essential to good project management. At NASA, standards and procedures to manage risk through a tiered approach have been developed - from the global agency-wide requirements down to a program or project's implementation. The basic methodology for NASA's risk management strategy includes processes to identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate and document risks. The identification, characterization, mitigation plan, and mitigation responsibilities associated with specific risks are documented to help communicate, manage, and effectuate appropriate closure. This approach helps to ensure more consistent documentation and assessment and provides a means of archiving lessons learned for future identification or mitigation activities.A new risk database and management tool was developed by NASA in 2002 and since has been used successfully to communicate, document and manage a number of diverse risks for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and several other NASA projects and programs including at the Johnson Space Center. Organizations use this database application to effectively manage and track each risk and gain insight into impacts from other organization's viewpoint to develop integrated solutions. Schedule, cost, technical and safety issues are tracked in detail through this system.Risks are tagged within the system to ensure proper review, coordination and management at the necessary management level. The database is intended as a day-to- day tool for organizations to manage their risks and elevate those issues that need coordination from above. Each risk is assigned to a managing organization and a specific risk owner who generates mitigation plans as appropriate. In essence, the risk owner is responsible for shepherding the risk through closure. The individual that identifies a new risk does not necessarily get assigned as the risk owner. Whoever is in the best position to effectuate comprehensive closure is assigned as the risk owner. Each mitigation plan includes the specific tasks that will be conducted to either decrease the likelihood of the risk occurring and/or lessen the severity of the consequences if they do occur. As each mitigation task is completed, the responsible managing organization records the completion of the task in the risk database and then re-scores the risk considering the task's results. By keeping scores updated, a managing organization's current top risks and risk posture can be readily identified including the status of any risk in the system.A number of metrics measure risk process trends from data contained in the database. This allows for trend analysis to further identify improvements to the process and assist in the management of all risks. The metrics will also scrutinize both the effectiveness and compliance of risk management requirements.The risk database is an evolving tool and will be continuously improved with capabilities requested by the NASA project community. This paper presents the basic foundations of risk management, the elements necessary for effective risk management, and the capabilities of this new risk database and how it is implemented to support NASA's risk management needs.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

PubMed

Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

2011-07-01

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Applying the Heuristic to the Risk Assessment within the Automotive Industry Supply Chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marasova, Daniela; Andrejiova, Miriam; Grincova, Anna

2017-03-01

Risk management facilitates risk identification, evaluation, control, and by means of appropriate set of measures, risk reduction or complete elimination. Therefore, the risk management becomes a strategic factor for a company's success. Properly implemented risk management system does not represent a tool to avoid the risk; it is used to understand the risk and provide the bases for strategic decision-making. Risk management represents a key factor for the supply chain operations. Managing the risks is crucial for achieving the customer satisfaction and thus also a company's success. The subject-matter of the article is the assessment of the supply chain in the automobile industry, in terms of risks. The topicality of this problem is even higher, as after the economic crisis it is necessary to revaluate the readiness of the supply chain for prospective risk conditions. One advantage of this article is the use of the Saaty method as a tool for the risk management within the supply chain.

Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henney, A.; Keers, G.

1998-10-01

The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysismore » of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk.« less

Estimated risks and optimistic self-perception of breast cancer risk in Korean women.

PubMed

Chung, ChaeWeon; Lee, Suk Jeong

2013-11-01

To determine women's perceived personal and comparative risks of breast cancer, and to examine the relationships with risk factors. Despite the increasing incidence of breast cancer in younger women and the availability of screening, women's health behaviors have not advanced accordingly. A cross-sectional survey design utilized a convenience sample of 222 women in their 30s and 40s recruited from community settings in Seoul. Self-administered questionnaire data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA. Risk perception levels differed significantly by breast cancer risk factors. Half of the women were optimistic about their breast cancer risk, while perceived personal risk did not reflect women's own risk factors and comparative risk differed only by the practice of clinical breast exam. Women's knowledge and awareness of their breast cancer risk factors need to be improved for appropriate risk perception and health behaviors, and accurate risk estimation could be utilized to educate them in clinical settings. © 2013.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

The risk of groundling fatalities from unintentional airplane crashes.

PubMed

Thompson, K M; Rabouw, R F; Cooke, R M

2001-12-01

The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people's perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the risk for Americans of being killed on the ground from a crashing airplane for unintentional events, providing average point estimates of 6 in a hundred million for annual risk and 4.2 in a million for lifetime risk. They noted that the lifetime risk result exceeded the commonly used risk management threshold of 1 in a million, and suggested that the risk to "groundlings" could be a useful risk communication tool because (a) it is a man-made risk (b) arising from economic activities (c) from which the victims derive no benefit and (d) exposure to which the victims cannot control. Their results have been used in risk communication. This analysis provides updated estimates of groundling fatality risks from unintentional crashes using more recent data and a geographical information system approach to modeling the population around airports. The results suggest that the average annual risk is now 1.2 in a hundred million and the lifetime risk is now 9 in ten million (below the risk management threshold). Analysis of the variability and uncertainty of this estimate, however, suggests that the exposure to groundling fatality risk varies by about a factor of approximately 100 in the spatial dimension of distance to an airport, with the risk declining rapidly outside the first 2 miles around an airport. We believe that the risk to groundlings from crashing airplanes is more useful in the context of risk communication when information about variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is characterized, but we suspect that recent events will alter its utility in risk communication.

Cross-sectional survey: risk-averse French general practitioners are more favorable toward influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Massin, Sophie; Ventelou, Bruno; Nebout, Antoine; Verger, Pierre; Pulcini, Céline

2015-01-29

We tested the following hypotheses: (i) risk-averse general practitioners (GPs) are more likely to be vaccinated against influenza; (ii) and risk-averse GPs recommend influenza vaccination more often to their patients. In risk-averse GPs, the perceived benefits of the vaccine and/or the perceived risks of the infectious disease might indeed outweigh the perceived risks of the vaccine. In 2010-2012, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of a nationwide French representative sample of 1136 GPs. Multivariate analyses adjusted for four stratification variables (age, gender, urban/suburban/rural practice location and annual patient consultations) and for GPs' characteristics (group/solo practice, and occasional practice of alternative medicine, e.g., homeopathy) looked for associations between their risk attitudes and self-reported vaccination behavior. Individual risk attitudes were expressed as a continuous variable, from 0 (risk-tolerant) to 10 (risk-averse). Overall, 69% of GPs reported that they were very favorable toward vaccination in general. Self-reported vaccination coverage was 78% for 2009/2010 seasonal influenza and 62% for A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. Most GPs (72%) reported recommending the pandemic influenza vaccination to at-risk young adults in 2009, but few than half (42%) to young adults not at risk. In multivariate analyses, risk-averse GPs were more often vaccinated against seasonal (marginal effect=1.3%, P=0.02) and pandemic influenza (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.02). Risk-averse GPs recommended the pandemic influenza vaccination more often than their more risk-tolerant colleagues to patients without risk factors (marginal effect=1.7%, P=0.01), but not to their at-risk patients and were more favorable toward vaccination in general (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.04). Individual risk attitudes may influence GPs' practices regarding influenza vaccination, both for themselves and their patients. Our results suggest that risk-averse GPs may perceive the risks of influenza to outweigh the potential risks related to the vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Appraising longitudinal trends in the strategic risks cited by risk managers in the international water utility sector, 2005-2015.

PubMed

Chalker, Rosemary T C; Pollard, Simon J T; Leinster, Paul; Jude, Simon

2018-03-15

We report dynamic changes in the priorities for strategic risks faced by international water utilities over a 10year period, as cited by managers responsible for managing them. A content analysis of interviews with three cohorts of risk managers in the water sector was undertaken. Interviews probed the focus risk managers' were giving to strategic risks within utilities, as well as specific questions on risk analysis tools (2005); risk management cultures (2011) and the integration of risk management with corporate decision-making (2015). The coding frequency of strategic (business, enterprise, corporate) risk terms from 18 structured interviews (2005) and 28 semi-structured interviews (12 in 2011; 16 in 2015) was used to appraise changes in the perceived importance of strategic risks within the sector. The aggregated coding frequency across the study period, and changes in the frequency of strategic risks cited at three interview periods identified infrastructure assets as the most significant risk over the period and suggests an emergence of extrinsic risk over time. Extended interviews with three utility risk managers (2016) from the UK, Canada and the US were then used to contextualise the findings. This research supports the ongoing focus on infrastructure resilience and the increasing prevalence of extrinsic risk within the water sector, as reported by the insurance sector and by water research organisations. The extended interviews provided insight into how strategic risks are now driving the implementation agenda within utilities, and into how utilities can secure tangible business value from proactive risk governance. Strategic external risks affecting the sector are on the rise, involve more players and are less controllable from within a utility's own organisational boundaries. Proportionate risk management processes and structures provide oversight and assurance, whilst allowing a focus on the tangible business value that comes from managing strategic risks well. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiation effects and risks: overview and a new risk perception index.

PubMed

Rehani, M M

2015-07-01

Uncertainty provides opportunities for differences in perception, and radiation risks at low level of exposures involved in few computed tomography scans fall in this category. While there is good agreement among national and international organisations on risk probability of cancer, risk perception has barely been dealt with by these organisations. Risk perception is commonly defined as the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. Severity and latency are important factors in perception. There is a need to connect all these. Leaving risk perception purely as a subjective judgement provides opportunities for people to amplifying risk. The author postulates a risk perception index as severity divided by latency that becomes determining factor for risk perception. It is hoped that this index will bring rationality in risk perception. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

PubMed Central

Hussain, S. Monira; Oldenburg, Brian; Zoungas, Sophia; Tonkin, Andrew M.

2013-01-01

Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk. PMID:24163770

Police response to domestic violence: making decisions about risk and risk management.

PubMed

Perez Trujillo, Monica; Ross, Stuart

2008-04-01

Assessing and responding to risk are key elements in how police respond to domestic violence. However, relatively little is known about the way police make judgments about the risks associated with domestic violence and how these judgments influence their actions. This study examines police decisions about risk in domestic violence incidents when using a risk assessment instrument. Based on a sample of 501 risk assessments completed by police in Australia, this study shows that a limited number of items on the risk assessment instrument are important in police officers' decisions about risk. Statistical analyses show that the victim's level of fear contributes to police officers' judgment on the level of risk and their decisions on which risk management strategy should be used. These findings suggest that research on police responses to domestic violence needs to pay greater attention to situational dynamics and the task requirements of risk-based decision making.

[Incentive for Regional Risk Selection in the German Risk Structure Compensation Scheme].

PubMed

Wende, Danny

2017-10-01

The introduction of the new law GKV-FQWG strengthens the competition between statutory health insurance. If incentives for risk selection exist, they may force a battle for cheap customers. This study aims to document and discuss incentives for regional risk selection in the German risk structure compensation scheme. Identify regional autocorrelation with Moran's l on financial parameters of the risk structure compensation schema. Incentives for regional risk selection do indeed exist. The risk structure compensation schema reduces 91% of the effect and helps to reduce risk selection. Nevertheless, a connection between regional situation and competition could be shown (correlation: 69.5%). Only the integration of regional control variables into the risk compensation eliminates regional autocorrelation. The actual risk structure compensation is leading to regional inequalities and as a consequence to risk selection and distortion in competition. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Risk management.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2010-01-01

Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

Comparing nanoparticle risk perceptions to other known EHS risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berube, David M.; Cummings, Christopher L.; Frith, Jordan H.; Binder, Andrew R.; Oldendick, Robert

2011-08-01

Over the last decade social scientific researchers have examined how the public perceives risks associated with nanotechnology. The body of literature that has emerged has been methodologically diverse. The findings have confirmed that some publics perceive nanotechnology as riskier than others, experts feel nanotechnology is less risky than the public does, and despite risks the public is optimistic about nanotechnology development. However, the extant literature on nanotechnology and risk suffers from sometimes widely divergent findings and has failed to provide a detailed picture of how the public actually feels about nanotechnology risks when compared to other risks. This study addresses the deficiencies in the literature by providing a comparative approach to gauging nanotechnology risks. The findings show that the public does not fear nanotechnology compared to other risks. Out of 24 risks presented to the participants, nanotechnology ranked 19th in terms of overall risk and 20th in terms of "high risk."

The relationship between health risks and health and productivity costs among employees at Pepsi Bottling Group.

PubMed

Henke, Rachel M; Carls, Ginger S; Short, Meghan E; Pei, Xiaofei; Wang, Shaohung; Moley, Susan; Sullivan, Mark; Goetzel, Ron Z

2010-05-01

To evaluate relationships between modifiable health risks and costs and measure potential cost savings from risk reduction programs. Health risk information from active Pepsi Bottling Group employees who completed health risk assessments between 2004 and 2006 (N = 11,217) were linked to medical care, workers' compensation, and short-term disability cost data. Ten health risks were examined. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate costs associated with having high risk, holding demographics, and other risks constant. Potential savings from risk reduction were estimated. High risk for weight, blood pressure, glucose, and cholesterol had the greatest impact on total costs. A one-percentage point annual reduction in the health risks assessed would yield annual per capita savings of $83.02 to $103.39. Targeted programs that address modifiable health risks are expected to produce substantial cost reductions in multiple benefit categories.

The ability of the 2013 ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores

PubMed Central

Kawai, Vivian K.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Solus, Joseph F.; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C. Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is underestimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS). We hypothesized that the 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds risk score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Methods Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA score we identified 34 patients with high CAC (≥ 300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS and the ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. Results All three risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P values <0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the three scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA 41%) (P=0.233). The c-statistics for the FRS, RRS and ACC/AHA risk scores predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. Conclusions The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC into a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. PMID:25371313

Using a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder to improve risk understanding by low numerates: a study of visual attention.

PubMed

Keller, Carmen

2011-07-01

Previous experimental research provides evidence that a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder is understood by low- and high-numerate individuals. It especially helps low numerates to better evaluate risk. In the present study, an eye tracker was used to capture individuals' visual attention to a familiar risk comparison, such as the risk associated with smoking. Two parameters of information processing-efficiency and level-were derived from visual attention. A random sample of participants from the general population (N= 68) interpreted a given risk level with the help of the risk ladder. Numeracy was negatively correlated with overall visual attention on the risk ladder (r(s) =-0.28, p= 0.01), indicating that the lower the numeracy, the more the time spent looking at the whole risk ladder. Numeracy was positively correlated with the efficiency of processing relevant frequency (r(s) = 0.34, p < 0.001) and relevant textual information (r(s) = 0.34, p < 0.001), but not with the efficiency of processing relevant comparative information and numerical information. There was a significant negative correlation between numeracy and the level of processing of relevant comparative risk information (r(s) =-0.21, p < 0.01), indicating that low numerates processed the comparative risk information more deeply than the high numerates. There was no correlation between numeracy and perceived risk. These results add to previous experimental research, indicating that the smoking risk comparison was crucial for low numerates to evaluate and understand risk. Furthermore, the eye-tracker method is promising for studying information processing and improving risk communication formats. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Supply chain risk management in newspaper company: House of risk approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnasari, Sintya; Hisjam, Muhammad; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2018-02-01

In the supply chain (SC) of newspapers, the printing company is the main entity that has several processes, i.e. procure raw materials, print plate and newspapers, and also distribute newspaper to consumers. The existing risks in the newspaper printing company are quite high. A wide range of disturbances or risks needs to be identified to map out the characteristics of the risk sources that will impact on the performance of the supply chain. Therefore, the printing companies need to manage their supply chain risk of the five major SC processes (such as plan, source, deliver, make, and return). In a case study of a newspaper company in Surakarta, the company have not implemented a risk management process that affects the company. This study is aimed to map the risks in the printing company and formulate risk mitigation alternatives to mitigate the risks. The house of risk (HOR) method was chosen to select a set of proactive actions deemed cost-effective in managing SC Risks in the newspaper company. The model consisting of two stages, the first stage (HOR1) was done by identifying risk, risk causing agents and then measured the severity and occurrences to calculate the Aggregate Risk Priority (ARP) value. The second stage (HOR2) is intended to formulate and prioritize the action of mitigation that the company should pursue to reduce the probability of risk agents to occur. The result shows that the innovative model of HOR in Newspaper Company was presented. There are 24 risk events, 20 causing agents and two priority risks in HOR1. The HOR 2 was proposed 9 ranks of mitigation strategy for priority risk agents, from the easiest to the hardest strategy for the company to implement it.

When the facts are just not enough: credibly communicating about risk is riskier when emotions run high and time is short.

PubMed

Reynolds, Barbara J

2011-07-15

When discussing risk with people, commonly subject matter experts believe that conveying the facts will be enough to allow people to assess a risk and respond rationally to that risk. Because of this expectation, experts often become exasperated by the seemingly illogical way people assess personal risk and choose to manage that risk. In crisis situations when the risk information is less defined and choices must be made within impossible time constraints, the thought processes may be even more susceptible to faulty heuristics. Understanding the perception of risk is essential to understanding why the public becomes more or less upset by events. This article explores the psychological underpinnings of risk assessment within emotionally laden events and the risk communication practices that may facilitate subject matter experts to provide the facts in a manner so they can be more certain those facts are being heard. Source credibility is foundational to risk communication practices. The public meeting is one example in which these best practices can be exercised. Risks are risky because risk perceptions differ and the psychosocial environment in which risk is discussed complicates making risk decisions. Experts who want to influence the actions of the public related to a threat or risk should understand that decisions often involve emotional as well as logical components. The media and other social entities will also influence the risk context. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's crisis and emergency-risk communication (CERC) principles are intended to increase credibility and recognize emotional components of an event. During a risk event, CERC works to calm emotions and increase trust which can help people apply the expertise being offered by response officials. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

When the facts are just not enough: Credibly communicating about risk is riskier when emotions run high and time is short

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, Barbara J., E-mail: Bsr0@cdc.gov

2011-07-15

When discussing risk with people, commonly subject matter experts believe that conveying the facts will be enough to allow people to assess a risk and respond rationally to that risk. Because of this expectation, experts often become exasperated by the seemingly illogical way people assess personal risk and choose to manage that risk. In crisis situations when the risk information is less defined and choices must be made within impossible time constraints, the thought processes may be even more susceptible to faulty heuristics. Understanding the perception of risk is essential to understanding why the public becomes more or less upsetmore » by events. This article explores the psychological underpinnings of risk assessment within emotionally laden events and the risk communication practices that may facilitate subject matter experts to provide the facts in a manner so they can be more certain those facts are being heard. Source credibility is foundational to risk communication practices. The public meeting is one example in which these best practices can be exercised. Risks are risky because risk perceptions differ and the psychosocial environment in which risk is discussed complicates making risk decisions. Experts who want to influence the actions of the public related to a threat or risk should understand that decisions often involve emotional as well as logical components. The media and other social entities will also influence the risk context. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's crisis and emergency-risk communication (CERC) principles are intended to increase credibility and recognize emotional components of an event. During a risk event, CERC works to calm emotions and increase trust which can help people apply the expertise being offered by response officials.« less

Association between the MTHFR C677T polymorphism and risk of cancer: evidence from 446 case-control studies.

PubMed

Xie, Shu-Zhe; Liu, Zhi-Zhong; Yu, Jun-hua; Liu, Li; Wang, Wei; Xie, Dao-Lin; Qin, Jiang-Bo

2015-11-01

Many molecular epidemiological studies have been performed to explore the association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and cancer risk in diverse populations. However, the results were inconsistent. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between cancer risk and MTHFR C677T (150,086 cases and 200,699 controls from 446 studies) polymorphism. Overall, significantly increased cancer risk was found when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. In the further stratified and sensitivity analyses, significantly increased breast cancer risk was found in Asians and Indians, significantly decreased colon cancer risk was found, significantly decreased colorectal cancer risk was found in male population, significantly increased gastric cancer risk was found in Caucasians and Asians, significantly increased hepatocellular cancer risk was found in Asians, significantly decreased adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (AALL) risk was found in Caucasians, significantly decreased childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (CALL) risk was found in Asians, and significantly increased multiple myeloma and NHL risk was found in Caucasians. In summary, this meta-analysis suggests that MTHFR C677T polymorphism is associated with increased breast cancer, gastric cancer, and hepatocellular cancer risk in Asians, is associated with increased gastric cancer, multiple myeloma, and NHL risk in Caucasians, is associated with decreased AALL risk in Caucasians, is associated with decreased CALL risk in Asians, is associated with increased breast cancer risk in Asians, is associated with decreased colon cancer risk, and is associated with decreased colorectal cancer risk in male population. Moreover, this meta-analysis also points out the importance of new studies, such as Asians of HNC, Asians of lung cancer, and Indians of breast cancer, because they had high heterogeneity in this meta-analysis (I(2) > 75%).

Review on risk factors related to lower back disorders at workplace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A' Tifah Jaffar, Nur; Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd

2017-08-01

This review examines the evidence of the occurrence of risk exposure on work-related lower back disorders in the workplace. This review also investigates potential interactions between the risk factors in the workplace which include heavy physical work risk factor, static work postures risk factor, frequent bending and twisting risk factor, lifting risk factor, pushing and pulling risk factor, repetitive work risk factor, vibration risk factor, psychological and psychosocial risk factor that may be associated with symptoms of musculoskeletal disorders of lower back. These risk factors can reinforce each other and their influence can also be mediated by cultural or social factors. A systematic review of the literature was carried out by searching using databases and the searching strategy was used combined keyword for risk factors, work-related lower back disorders, heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor. A total of 67 articles were identified and reviewed. The risk factors identified that related for low back disorder are seven which are heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor and the level of evidence supporting the relationship with lower back disorders also described such as strong, moderate, insufficient, limited and no evidence. This result confirms that, existing of higher physical and psychosocial demand related to reported risk factors of low back disorders. The result also showed that previous reviews had evaluated relationship between risk factors of low back disorders and specific types of musculoskeletal disorders. This review also highlights the scarves evidence regarding some of the frequently reported risk factors for work related lower back disorders.

Design of the BRISC study: a multicentre controlled clinical trial to optimize the communication of breast cancer risks in genetic counselling.

PubMed

Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij; van Asperen, Christi J; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Menko, Fred H; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M

2008-10-03

Understanding risks is considered to be crucial for informed decision-making. Inaccurate risk perception is a common finding in women with a family history of breast cancer attending genetic counseling. As yet, it is unclear how risks should best be communicated in clinical practice. This study protocol describes the design and methods of the BRISC (Breast cancer RISk Communication) study evaluating the effect of different formats of risk communication on the counsellee's risk perception, psychological well-being and decision-making regarding preventive options for breast cancer. The BRISC study is designed as a pre-post-test controlled group intervention trial with repeated measurements using questionnaires. The intervention-an additional risk consultation-consists of one of 5 conditions that differ in the way counsellee's breast cancer risk is communicated: 1) lifetime risk in numerical format (natural frequencies, i.e. X out of 100), 2) lifetime risk in both numerical format and graphical format (population figures), 3) lifetime risk and age-related risk in numerical format, 4) lifetime risk and age-related risk in both numerical format and graphical format, and 5) lifetime risk in percentages. Condition 6 is the control condition in which no intervention is given (usual care). Participants are unaffected women with a family history of breast cancer attending one of three participating clinical genetic centres in the Netherlands. The BRISC study allows for an evaluation of the effects of different formats of communicating breast cancer risks to counsellees. The results can be used to optimize risk communication in order to improve informed decision-making among women with a family history of breast cancer. They may also be useful for risk communication in other health-related services. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14566836.

Do not fear the Framingham: Practical application to properly evaluate and modify cardiovascular risk in commercial divers.

PubMed

Suresh, Rahul; Pavela, James; Kus, Marcus S; Alleman, Tony; Sanders, Robert

2018-01-01

In April 2016 the Association of Diving Contractors International (ADCI) consensus guidelines began recommending annual cardiovascular risk stratification of commercial divers using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). For those at elevated risk, further testing is recommended. This approach has raised concerns about potential operational and financial impacts. However, the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk and need for additional testing among commercial divers is not known. Clinical data required to calculate the FRS was abstracted for 190 commercial divers in two cohorts. Population demographics, FRS distribution, contributions of risk factors and effect of interventions on reducing risk-factor burden were assessed. Mean FRS score was 1.68 ± 6.35 points, with 13 divers (6.8%) at intermediate risk and none at high 10-year risk. In these 13 divers, the mean contributions to the FRS were from age (6.5 points), cholesterol (3.1 pts.), smoking (1.3 pts.), highdensity lipoprotein (1 pt.), and systolic blood pressure (0.8 pts). The youngest age group had a significantly higher modifiable risk core than the oldest age group (5.87 vs. 1.2 points, P ⟨ 0.001). All 13 intermediate risk divers could have been reclassified as low-risk with successful treatment of modifiable risk factors. The prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk among commercial divers is low, and treatment of modifiable risk factors could reclassify those at intermediate risk to low risk. Therefore, FRS implementation coupled with intensive risk-reduction strategies for at risk-divers may help improve diver health and prolong the careers of divers while limiting the need for additional testing and adverse operational impact. Copyright© Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society.

Is the association between flow-mediated dilation and cardiovascular risk limited to low-risk populations?

PubMed

Witte, Daniel R; Westerink, Jan; de Koning, Eelco J; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Grobbee, Diederick E; Bots, Michiel L

2005-06-21

The aim of this research was to study whether the relation between endothelial function measured by flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery and cardiovascular risk factors is affected by the baseline cardiovascular risk. Flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery is widely used as a measure of endothelial function. Relations between FMD and most cardiovascular risk factors have been described. We performed a meta-regression analysis of 211 selected articles (399 populations) reporting on FMD and cardiovascular risk factors. Mean values of FMD; age; proportion of men; proportion of smokers; blood pressure; lipids; glucose; and the presence of diabetes mellitus, of hyperlipidemia, and of hypertension were retrieved from the articles. The 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) for each population was estimated based on the Framingham risk score. The relation between FMD and cardiovascular risk factors was assessed within each risk category by linear regression analysis, adjusting for age and gender, and weighted for the study size. A relation between FMD and cardiovascular risk factors was most clear in the category with lowest baseline risk (below 2.8% per decade). In populations with low baseline risk, for each % increase in Framingham risk, FMD decreased by 1.42% (95% confidence interval: 0.65 to 2.19). In medium- and high-risk populations, FMD was not related to risk (-0.02% [-0.27 to 0.22] and 0.06% [-0.02 to 0.13], respectively). These findings were independent of differences in brachial lumen diameter and technical aspects of the FMD measurement. Only in populations at low risk, endothelial function measured by FMD is related to the principal cardiovascular risk factors, and to the estimated 10-year risk of CHD.

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

Risky business: the effects of an individualized health information intervention on health risk perceptions and leisure time physical activity among people with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Bassett, Rebecca L; Ginis, Kathleen A Martin

2011-07-01

Individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) are at an increased risk for inactivity-related diseases such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and obesity. According to protection motivation theory, perceptions of disease risk predict motivation to engage in health-protective behaviors such as leisure time physical activity (LTPA). The purposes of this study were to (1) examine changes in perceived risk for disease following an individualized health information intervention and (2) examine changes in perceived risk for disease as a predictor of changes in LTPA. Perceived risk for disease and LTPA were measured at baseline among 62 people with SCI. Objective disease risk information (e.g., waist circumference, BMI, blood glucose) was collected and individual risk information was mailed to each participant. Perceived risk for disease and LTPA were remeasured 1 and 2 weeks following receipt of individualized information, respectively. Changes in perceived risk of heart disease and obesity were dependent on objective risk status. There were no significant changes in perceived risk of diabetes. Changes in perceived risk of heart disease negatively predicted, while changes in perceived risk of diabetes positively predicted, changes in LTPA. Changes in obesity did not significantly predict changes in LTPA. Among people with SCI, individual health-risk information can change perceptions of disease risk. Increased perceived risk of diabetes may motivate LTPA, while increased perceived risk of heart disease may encourage avoidance behavior regarding LTPA. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Young Adult Cannabis Users Report Greater Propensity for Risk-Taking Only in Non-Monetary Domains

PubMed Central

Gilman, Jodi M.; Calderon, Vanessa; Curran, Max T.; Evins, A. Eden

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Though substance use is often associated with elevated risk-taking in real-world scenarios, many risk-taking tasks in experimental psychology using financial gambles fail to find significant differences between individuals with substance use disorders and healthy controls. We assessed whether participants using marijuana would show a greater propensity for risk-taking in distinct domains including, but not limited to, financial risk-taking. METHODS In the current study, we assessed risk-taking in young adult (age 18–25) regular marijuana users and in non-using control participants using a domain-specific risk-taking self-report scale (DOSPERT) encompassing five domains of risk-taking (social, financial, recreational, health/safety, and ethical). We also measured behavioral risk-taking using a laboratory monetary risk-taking task. RESULTS Marijuana users and controls reported significant differences on the social, health/safety, and ethical risk-taking scales, but no differences in the propensity to take recreational or financial risks. Complementing the self-report finding, there were no differences between marijuana users and controls in their performance on the laboratory risk-taking task. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that financial risk-taking may be less sensitive than other domains of risk-taking in assessing differences in risky behavior between those who use marijuana and those who do not. In order to more consistently determine whether increased risk-taking is a factor in substance use, it may be necessary to use both monetary risk-taking tasks and complementary assessments of non-monetary-based risk-taking measures. PMID:25577478

HIV-risk characteristics in community corrections.

PubMed

Clark, C Brendan; McCullumsmith, Cheryl B; Waesche, Matthew C; Islam, M Aminul; Francis, Reginald; Cropsey, Karen L

2013-01-01

Individuals in the criminal justice system engage in behaviors that put them at high risk for HIV. This study sought to identify characteristics of individuals who are under community corrections supervision (eg, probation) and at risk for HIV. Approximately 25,000 individuals under community corrections supervision were assessed for HIV risk, and 5059 participants were deemed high-risk or no-risk. Of those, 1519 exhibited high sexual-risk (SR) behaviors, 203 exhibited injection drug risk (IVR), 957 exhibited both types of risk (SIVR), and 2380 exhibited no risk. Sociodemographic characteristics and drug of choice were then examined using univariate and binary logistic regression. Having a history of sexual abuse, not having insurance, and selecting any drug of choice were associated with all forms of HIV risk. However, the effect sizes associated with the various drugs of choice varied significantly by group. Aside from those common risk factors, very different patterns emerged. Female gender was a risk factor for the SR group but was less likely to be associated with IVR. Younger age was associated with SR, whereas older age was associated with IVR. Black race was a risk factor for SR but had a negative association with IVR and SIVR. Living in a shelter, living with relatives/friends, and being unemployed were all risk factors for IVR but were protective factors for SR. Distinct sociodemographic and substance use characteristics were associated with sexual versus injection drug use risk for individuals under community corrections supervision who were at risk for HIV. Information from this study could help identify high-risk individuals and allow tailoring of interventions.

Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

PubMed

Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

2009-02-01

Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

PubMed

Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

2017-09-01

While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIV Risk Perception and Risky Behavior Among People Who Inject Drugs in Kermanshah, Western Iran.

PubMed

Noroozi, Mehdi; Ahounbar, Elahe; Karimi, Salah Eddin; Ahmadi, Sina; Najafi, Mohammad; Bazrafshan, Ali; Shushtari, Zahra Jorjoran; Farhadi, Mohammad Hassan; Higgs, Peter; Rezaei, Fatemeh; Ghiasvand, Hesam; Sharhani, Asaad; Armoon, Bahram; Waye, Katherine

2017-08-01

Understanding and increasing awareness on individual risk for HIV infection as well as HIV risk perception's effects on different behavioral outcomes for people who inject drugs (PWID) is important for policymaking and planning purposes. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether HIV risk perception was associated with greater injection and sexual risk-taking behaviors among PWIDs. We surveyed 460 PWID in Kermanshah regarding their demographic characteristics, sexual risk behaviors, HIV risk perception, and drug-related risk behaviors in the month prior to the study. Three classes of HIV risk perception were identified using ordinal regression to determine factors associated with HIV risk perception. Study participants were categorized as follows: "low" (n = 100, 22%), "moderate" (n = 150, 32%), and "high" (n = 210, 46%) risk perception for becoming infected with HIV. The odds of categorizing as "high" risk for HIV was significantly greater in PWID that reported unprotected sex (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.4, p value 0.02), receptive syringe sharing (AOR 1.8, p value 0.01), and multiple sex partners (AOR 1.4, p value 0.03). PWID who reported unprotected sex had 2.7 times the odds of "high" risk perception when compared to PWID with "low" risk perception. Findings show that PWID could rate their HIV risk with acceptable accuracy. Additionally, perceived HIV risk was associated with many risk factors for transmission of HIV, emphasizing the importance of developing targeted prevention and harm reduction programs for all domains of risk behaviors, both sexual and drug-related use.

Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snowberg, David; Weber, Jochem

2015-09-01

Over the past decade, the global marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an MHK Risk Management Framework. By addressing uncertainties, the MHK Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of an MHK technology. It covers projects of any technical readiness level (TRL) or technical performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over themore » development cycle. This framework is intended for the development and deployment of a single MHK technology—not for multiple device deployments within a plant. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE’s risk management expectations for the MHK technology research and development efforts of the Water Power Program (see Appendix A). It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.1 This framework emphasizes design and risk reviews as formal gates to ensure risks are managed throughout the technology development cycle. Section 1 presents the recommended technology development cycle, Sections 2 and 3 present tools to assess the TRL and TPL of the project, respectively. Section 4 presents a risk management process with design and risk reviews for actively managing risk within the project, and Section 5 presents a detailed description of a risk registry to collect the risk management information into one living document. Section 6 presents recommendations for collecting and using lessons learned throughout the development process.« less

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: Results from the Filipino-American Women Cardiovascular Study.

PubMed

Ancheta, Irma B; Battie, Cynthia A; Volgman, Annabelle S; Ancheta, Christine V; Palaniappan, Latha

2017-02-01

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality of Filipino-Americans, conventional CVD risk calculators may not be accurate for this population. CVD risk scores of a group of Filipino-American women (FAW) were measured using the major risk calculators. Secondly, the sensitivity of the various calculators to obesity was determined. This is a cross-sectional descriptive study that enrolled 40-65-year-old FAW (n = 236), during a community-based health screening study. Ten-year CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Reynolds Risk Score (RRS), and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) calculators. The 30-year risk FRS and the lifetime ASCVD calculators were also determined. Levels of predicted CVD risk varied as a function of the calculator. The 10-year ASCVD calculator classified 12 % of participants with ≥10 % risk, but the 10-year FRS and RRS calculators classified all participants with ≤10 % risk. The 30-year "Hard" Lipid and BMI FRS calculators classified 32 and 43 % of participants with high (≥20 %) risk, respectively, while 95 % of participants were classified with ≥20 % risk by the lifetime ASCVD calculator. The percent of participants with elevated CVD risk increased as a function of waist circumference for most risk score calculators. Differences in risk score as a function of the risk score calculator indicate the need for outcome studies in this population. Increased waist circumference was associated with increased CVD risk scores underscoring the need for obesity control as a primary prevention of CVD in FAW.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glantz, C.S.; DiMassa, F.V.; Pelto, P.J.

The Western Area Power Administration (Western) views environmental protection and compliance as a top priority as it manages the construction, operation, and maintenance of its vast network of transmission lines, substations, and other facilities. A recent Department of Energy audit of Western`s environmental management activities recommends that Western adopt a formal environmental risk program. To accomplish this goal, Western, in conjunction with Pacific Northwest Laboratory, is in the process of developing a centrally coordinated environmental risk program. This report presents the results of this design effort, and indicates the direction in which Western`s environmental risk program is heading. Western`s environmentalmore » risk program will consist of three main components: risk communication, risk assessment, and risk management/decision making. Risk communication is defined as an exchange of information on the potential for threats to human health, public safety, or the environment. This information exchange provides a mechanism for public involvement, and also for the participation in the risk assessment and management process by diverse groups or offices within Western. The objective of risk assessment is to evaluate and rank the relative magnitude of risks associated with specific environmental issues that are facing Western. The evaluation and ranking is based on the best available scientific information and judgment and serves as input to the risk management process. Risk management takes risk information and combines it with relevant non-risk factors (e.g., legal mandates, public opinion, costs) to generate risk management options. A risk management tool, such as decision analysis, can be used to help make risk management choices.« less

76 FR 16234 - Prompt Corrective Action; Amended Definition of Low-Risk Assets

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-23

... guaranteed by NCUA. Assets in this category receive a risk-weighting of zero for regulatory capital purposes... not apply a risk-weighting of zero even when an investment carries no credit risk. The ``Low-risk assets'' risk portfolio, in contrast, does apply a risk- weighting of zero, but the NGNs did not fall...

Cost Discrepancy, Signaling, and Risk Taking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lemon, Jim

2005-01-01

If risk taking is in some measure a signal to others by the person taking risks, the model of "costly signaling" predicts that the more the apparent cost of the risk to others exceeds the perceived cost of the risk to the risk taker, the more attractive that risk will be as a signal. One hundred and twelve visitors to youth…

12 CFR Appendix E to Part 208 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for State Member Banks; Market Risk Measure

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... positions due to factors other than broad market movements and includes event and default risk as well as... its risk measurement and risk management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk factors sufficient to measure the market risk inherent in all covered...

12 CFR Appendix E to Part 225 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for Bank Holding Companies: Market Risk Measure

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

.... (2) Specific risk means changes in the market value of specific positions due to factors other than... factors. The organization's internal model must use risk factors sufficient to measure the market risk inherent in all covered positions. The risk factors must address interest rate risk, 12 equity price risk...

46 CFR 308.409 - Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 8 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283. 308.409 Section 308.409 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance § 308.409 Standard form...

46 CFR 308.409 - Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 8 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283. 308.409 Section 308.409 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance § 308.409 Standard form...

46 CFR 308.409 - Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283. 308.409 Section 308.409 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance § 308.409 Standard form...

46 CFR 308.409 - Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 8 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283. 308.409 Section 308.409 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance § 308.409 Standard form...

46 CFR 308.409 - Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 8 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Standard form of War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance Policy, Form MA-283. 308.409 Section 308.409 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance § 308.409 Standard form...

Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

PubMed

Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

2016-04-01

WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making; however, there is concern that the use of these tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic engagement with service users. The majority of participants have positive attitudes towards therapeutic risk, believing that service users have the right to take informed risks in the context of recovery-orientated care. Discussion The provision of education on the use of risk assessment tools within the context of engagement may help minimize views that the use of assessment tools are incompatible with therapeutic engagement. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The influence of narrative risk communication on feelings of cancer risk.

PubMed

Janssen, Eva; van Osch, Liesbeth; de Vries, Hein; Lechner, Lilian

2013-05-01

Evidence is accumulating for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining cancer preventive behaviours, but best practices for influencing these feelings are limited. The aim of this experimental study was to compare the effects of narrative and non-narrative risk communication about sunbed use on ease of imagination and feelings of cancer risk. A total of 233 female sunbed users in the general Dutch population were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: a narrative message (i.e., personal testimonial), a non-narrative cognitive message (i.e., factual risk information using cognitive-laden words), or a non-narrative affective message (i.e., factual risk information using affective-laden words). Ease of imagination and feelings of risk were assessed directly after the risk information was given (T1). Three weeks after the baseline session, feelings of risk were measured again (T2). The results revealed that sunbed users who were exposed to narrative risk information could better imagine themselves developing skin cancer and reported higher feelings of skin cancer risk at T1. Moreover, ease of imagination mediated the effects of message type on feelings of risk at T1 and T2. The findings provide support for the effects of narrative risk communication in influencing feelings of cancer risk through ease of imagination. Cancer prevention programmes may therefore benefit from including narrative risk information. Future research is important to investigate other mechanisms of narrative information and their most effective content and format. What is already known on this subject? Evidence is growing for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining cancer preventive behaviours. Narratives have increasingly been considered as an effective format for persuasive risk messages and studies have shown narrative risk communication to be effective in influencing cognitive risk beliefs. What does this study add? Increasing understanding of how feelings of cancer risk can be influenced since best practices for influencing these feelings are limited. Extending knowledge about the underlying mechanisms of narrative effects on feelings of cancer risk (i.e., the mediating role of ease of imagination) using a non-student sample. The findings provide support for the effects of narrative risk communication in influencing feelings of cancer risk through ease of imagination. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Paradigm of pretest risk stratification before coronary computed tomography.

PubMed

Jensen, Jesper Møller; Ovrehus, Kristian A; Nielsen, Lene H; Jensen, Jesper K; Larsen, Henrik M; Nørgaard, Bjarne L

2009-01-01

The optimal method of determining the pretest risk of coronary artery disease as a patient selection tool before coronary multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) is unknown. We investigated the ability of 3 different clinical risk scores to predict the outcome of coronary MDCT. This was a retrospective study of 551 patients consecutively referred for coronary MDCT on a suspicion of coronary artery disease. Diamond-Forrester, Duke, and Morise risk models were used to predict coronary artery stenosis (>50%) as assessed by coronary MDCT. The models were compared by receiver operating characteristic analysis. The distribution of low-, intermediate-, and high-risk persons, respectively, was established and compared for each of the 3 risk models. Overall, all risk prediction models performed equally well. However, the Duke risk model classified the low-risk patients more correctly than did the other models (P < 0.01). In patients without coronary artery calcification (CAC), the predictive value of the Duke risk model was superior to the other risk models (P < 0.05). Currently available risk prediction models seem to perform better in patients without CAC. Between the risk prediction models, there was a significant discrepancy in the distribution of patients at low, intermediate, or high risk (P < 0.01). The 3 risk prediction models perform equally well, although the Duke risk score may have advantages in subsets of patients. The choice of risk prediction model affects the referral pattern to MDCT. Copyright (c) 2009 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Transfer Formula for Individual and Small Group Markets Under the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Pope, Gregory C; Bachofer, Henry; Pearlman, Andrew; Kautter, John; Hunter, Elizabeth; Miller, Daniel; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

The Affordable Care Act provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group health insurance markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge. The risk adjustment methodology includes the risk adjustment model and the risk transfer formula. This article is the third of three in this issue of the Medicare & Medicaid Research Review that describe the ACA risk adjustment methodology and focuses on the risk transfer formula. In our first companion article, we discussed the key issues and choices in developing the methodology. In our second companion paper, we described the risk adjustment model that is used to calculate risk scores. In this article we present the risk transfer formula. We first describe how the plan risk score is combined with factors for the plan allowable premium rating, actuarial value, induced demand, geographic cost, and the statewide average premium in a formula that calculates transfers among plans. We then show how each plan factor is determined, as well as how the factors relate to each other in the risk transfer formula. The goal of risk transfers is to offset the effects of risk selection on plan costs while preserving premium differences due to factors such as actuarial value differences. Illustrative numerical simulations show the risk transfer formula operating as anticipated in hypothetical scenarios. PMID:25352994

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less

Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

PubMed

Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

2017-02-01

Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regulatory Science in Professional Education.

PubMed

Akiyama, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

In the field of pharmaceutical sciences, the subject of regulatory science (RS) includes pharmaceuticals, food, and living environments. For pharmaceuticals, considering the balance between efficacy and safety is a point required for public acceptance, and in that balance, more importance is given to efficacy in curing disease. For food, however, safety is the most important consideration for public acceptance because food should be essentially free of risk. To ensure food safety, first, any hazard that is an agent in food or condition of food with the potential to cause adverse health effects should be identified and characterized. Then the risk that it will affect public health is scientifically analyzed. This process is called risk assessment. Second, risk management should be conducted to reduce a risk that has the potential to affect public health found in a risk assessment. Furthermore, risk communication, which is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk and risk management among risk assessors, risk managers, consumers, and other interested parties, should be conducted. Food safety is ensured based on risk analysis consisting of the three components of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. RS in the field of food safety supports risk analysis, such as scientific research and development of test methods to evaluate food quality, efficacy, and safety. RS is also applied in the field of living environments because the safety of environmental chemical substances is ensured based on risk analysis, similar to that conducted for food.

Systematic Risk Reduction: Chances and Risks of Geological Storage of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schilling, F. R.; Wuerdemann, H.

2010-12-01

A profound risk assessment should be the basis of any underground activity such as the geological storage of CO2. The risks and benefits should be weighted, whereas the risks need to be systematically reduced. Even after some decades of geological storage of CO2 (as part of a carbon capture and storage CCS), only a few projects are based on an independent risk assessment. In some cases, a risk assessment was performed after the start of storage operation. Chances: - Are there alternatives to CCS with lower risk? - Is a significant CO2 reduction possible without CCS? - If we accept that CO2 emissions are responsible for climate change having a severe economical impact, we need to substantially reduce CO2 emissions. As long as economic growth is directly related to CO2 emissions, we need to decouple the two. - CCS is one of the few options - may be a necessity, if the energy market is not only dependent on demand. Risks: Beside the risk not to develop and implement CCS, the following risks need to be addressed, ideally in a multi independent risk assessment. - Personal Interests - Acceptance - Political interests - Company interests - HSE (Health Safety Environment) - Risk for Climate and ETS - Operational Risks If a multi independent risk assessment is performed and the risks are addressed in a proper way, a significant and systematic risk reduction can be achieved. Some examples will be given, based on real case studies, such as CO2SINK at Ketzin.

Determining when to conduct a violence risk assessment: Development and initial validation of the Fordham Risk Screening Tool (FRST).

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Barry; Foellmi, Melodie; Khadivi, Ali; Wijetunga, Charity; Howe, Jacqueline; Nijdam-Jones, Alicia; Grover, Shana; Rotter, Merrill

2017-08-01

Techniques to assess violence risk are increasingly common, but no systematic approach exists to help clinicians decide which psychiatric patients are most in need of a violence risk assessment. The Fordham Risk Screening Tool (FRST) was designed to fill this void, providing a structured, systematic approach to screening psychiatric patients and determining the need for further, more thorough violence risk assessment. The FRST was administered to a sample of 210 consecutive admissions to the civil psychiatric units of an urban medical center, 159 of whom were subsequently evaluated using the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, version 3, to determine violence risk. The FRST showed a high degree of sensitivity (93%) in identifying patients subsequently deemed to be at high risk for violence (based on the Case Prioritization risk rating). The FRST also identified all of the patients (100%) rated high in potential for severe violence (based on the Serious Physical Harm Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, version 3, summary risk rating). Sensitivity was more modest when individuals rated as moderate risk were included as the criterion (rather than only those identified as high risk). Specificity was also moderate, screening out approximately half of all participants as not needing further risk assessment. A systematic approach to risk screening is clearly needed to prioritize psychiatric admissions for thorough risk assessment, and the FRST appears to be a potentially valuable step in that process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

PubMed

Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

2011-08-01

The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

Risk adjusting community rated health plan premiums: a survey of risk assessment literature and policy applications.

PubMed

Giacomini, M; Luft, H S; Robinson, J C

1995-01-01

This paper surveys recent health care reform debates and empirical evidence regarding the potential role for risk adjusters in addressing the problem of competitive risk segmentation under capitated financing. We discuss features of health plan markets affecting risk selection, methodological considerations in measuring it, and alternative approaches to financial correction for risk differentials. The appropriate approach to assessing risk differences between health plans depends upon the nature of market risk selection allowed under a given reform scenario. Because per capita costs depend on a health plan's population risk, efficiency, and quality of service, risk adjustment will most strongly promote efficiency in environments with commensurately strong incentives for quality care.

Heterogeneity and Risk Sharing in Village Economies*

PubMed Central

Chiappori, Pierre-André; Samphantharak, Krislert; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Townsend, Robert M.

2013-01-01

We show how to use panel data on household consumption to directly estimate households’ risk preferences. Specifically, we measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages using a full risk-sharing model, which we then test allowing for this heterogeneity. There is substantial, statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated risk preferences. Full insurance cannot be rejected. As the risk sharing, as-if-complete-markets theory might predict, estimated risk preferences are unrelated to wealth or other characteristics. The heterogeneity matters for policy: Although the average household would benefit from eliminating village-level risk, less-risk-averse households who are paid to absorb that risk would be worse off by several percent of household consumption. PMID:24932226

An Extensible Information Grid for Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maluf, David A.; Bell, David G.

2003-01-01

This paper describes recent work on developing an extensible information grid for risk management at NASA - a RISK INFORMATION GRID. This grid is being developed by integrating information grid technology with risk management processes for a variety of risk related applications. To date, RISK GRID applications are being developed for three main NASA processes: risk management - a closed-loop iterative process for explicit risk management, program/project management - a proactive process that includes risk management, and mishap management - a feedback loop for learning from historical risks that escaped other processes. This is enabled through an architecture involving an extensible database, structuring information with XML, schemaless mapping of XML, and secure server-mediated communication using standard protocols.

The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pokorny, Frank M.

2004-01-01

As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in risk management and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process.

Continuous Risk Management: An Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore F.

1999-01-01

Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

"I know what you told me, but this is what I think:" perceived risk of Alzheimer disease among individuals who accurately recall their genetics-based risk estimate.

PubMed

Linnenbringer, Erin; Roberts, J Scott; Hiraki, Susan; Cupples, L Adrienne; Green, Robert C

2010-04-01

This study evaluates the Alzheimer disease risk perceptions of individuals who accurately recall their genetics-based Alzheimer disease risk assessment. Two hundred forty-six unaffected first-degree relatives of patients with Alzheimer disease were enrolled in a multisite randomized controlled trial examining the effects of communicating APOE genotype and lifetime Alzheimer disease risk information. Among the 158 participants who accurately recalled their Alzheimer disease risk assessment 6 weeks after risk disclosure, 75 (47.5%) believed their Alzheimer disease risk was more than 5% points different from the Alzheimer disease risk estimate they were given. Within this subgroup, 69.3% believed that their Alzheimer disease risk was higher than what they were told (discordant high), whereas 30.7% believed that their Alzheimer disease risk was lower (discordant low). Participants with a higher baseline risk perception were more likely to have a discordant-high risk perception (P < 0.05). Participants in the discordant-low group were more likely to be APOE epsilon4 positive (P < 0.05) and to score higher on an Alzheimer disease controllability scale (P < 0.05). Our results indicate that even among individuals who accurately recall their Alzheimer disease risk assessment, many people do not take communicated risk estimates at face value. Further exploration of this clinically relevant response to risk information is warranted.

Framing recommendations to promote prevention behaviors among people at high risk: A simulation study of responses to melanoma genetic test reporting.

PubMed

Taber, Jennifer M; Aspinwall, Lisa G

2015-10-01

A CDKN2A/p16 mutation confers 76 % lifetime risk of developing melanoma to US residents, and high-risk individuals are counseled to use sunscreen. Generally, for patients at population risk, gain framing more effectively promotes prevention behaviors; however, it is unknown whether loss frames might more effectively promote behavioral intentions and perceived control over disease risk among high-risk patients. Undergraduates (N = 146) underwent a simulated genetic counseling and test reporting session for hereditary melanoma. Participants watched a video of a genetic counselor providing information in which genetic risk of melanoma (Low: 15 %; High: 76 %) and framed recommendations to use sunscreen (Loss: Risk may increase by 15 % if don't use sunscreen; Gain: Risk may decrease by 15 % if use sunscreen) were manipulated. Controlling for baseline sunscreen use, high-risk participants given loss frames reported greater beliefs that sunscreen would reduce risk than high-risk participants given gain frames. Further, high-risk participants with fair skin tended to report greater intentions to use sunscreen when given loss frames versus gain frames. Perceived control over risk mediated the effect of message frame and disease risk on intentions to use sunscreen. When counseling patients with elevated cancer risk, genetic counselors may consider framing prevention behavioral recommendations in terms of potential losses.

The effect of graphical and numerical presentation of hypothetical prenatal diagnosis results on risk perception.

PubMed

Siegrist, Michael; Orlow, Pascale; Keller, Carmen

2008-01-01

To evaluate various formats for the communication of prenatal test results. In study 1 (N=400), female students completed a questionnaire assessing risk perception, affect, and perceived usefulness of prenatal test results. A randomized, 2 (risk level; low, high) x 4 (format; ratio with numerator 1, ratio with denominator 1000, Paling Perspective Scale, pictograms) design was used. Study 2 (N=200) employed a 2 (risk level; low, high) x 2 (format; Paling Perspective Scale, risk comparisons in numerical format) design. In study 1, the Paling Perspective Scale resulted in a higher level of perceived risk across different risk levels compared with the other formats. Furthermore, participants in the low-risk group perceived the test results as less risky compared with participants in the high-risk group (P < 0.001) when the Paling Perspective Scale was used. No significant differences between low and high risks were observed for the other 3 formats. In study 2, the Paling Perspective Scale evoked higher levels of perceived risks relative to the numerical presentation of risk comparisons. For both formats, we found that participants confronted with a high risk perceived test results as more risky compared with participants confronted with a low risk. The Paling Perspective Scale resulted in a higher level of perceived risk compared with the other formats. This effect must be taken into account when choosing a graphical or numerical format for risk communication.

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

PubMed

Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

2017-04-20

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

The visual communication of risk.

PubMed

Lipkus, I M; Hollands, J G

1999-01-01

This paper 1) provides reasons why graphics should be effective aids to communicate risk; 2) reviews the use of visuals, especially graphical displays, to communicate risk; 3) discusses issues to consider when designing graphs to communicate risk; and 4) provides suggestions for future research. Key articles and materials were obtained from MEDLINE(R) and PsychInfo(R) databases, from reference article citations, and from discussion with experts in risk communication. Research has been devoted primarily to communicating risk magnitudes. Among the various graphical displays, the risk ladder appears to be a promising tool for communicating absolute and relative risks. Preliminary evidence suggests that people understand risk information presented in histograms and pie charts. Areas that need further attention include 1) applying theoretical models to the visual communication of risk, 2) testing which graphical displays can be applied best to different risk communication tasks (e.g., which graphs best convey absolute or relative risks), 3) communicating risk uncertainty, and 4) testing whether the lay public's perceptions and understanding of risk varies by graphical format and whether the addition of graphical displays improves comprehension substantially beyond numerical or narrative translations of risk and, if so, by how much. There is a need to ascertain the extent to which graphics and other visuals enhance the public's understanding of disease risk to facilitate decision-making and behavioral change processes. Nine suggestions are provided to help achieve these ends.

Perceived HIV risk, actual sexual HIV risk and willingness to take pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in Toronto, Canada.

PubMed

Kesler, Maya A; Kaul, Rupert; Myers, Ted; Liu, Juan; Loutfy, Mona; Remis, Robert S; Gesink, Dionne

2016-11-01

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reduces HIV acquisition. Our goal was to determine the willingness of men who have sex with men (MSM) to take PrEP given perceived and actual HIV risk. HIV-negative MSM were recruited from September 2010 to June 2012 and asked about PrEP willingness and perceived HIV risk. Actual sexual HIV risk was measured by three condom-use components generated through principal components analysis. General HIV risk was measured using the HIV Incidence Risk Index for MSM (HIRI-MSM). Model 1 measured PrEP willingness given perceived and actual sexual HIV risk. Model 2 included actual HIV sexual risk, perceived HIV risk and general HIV risk. Model 3 removed actual sexual HIV risk. We recruited 150 HIV-negative MSM. About 55% were willing to take PrEP. Reasons for PrEP unwillingness were: low perceived risk (64%), side-effect concerns (44%), daily pill burden (16%) and efficacy concerns (4%). Model 1: MSM with high compared to low actual sexual HIV risk were more willing to use PrEP (OR 27.11, 95% CI 1.33-554.43) after adjusting for perceived risk, which was not significantly associated with PrEP willingness (OR 4.79, 95% CI 0.72-31.96). Model 2: MSM with high compared to low actual sexual HIV risk were more willing to use PrEP (OR 29.85, 95% CI 1.39-640.53) after adjusting for perceived and general HIV risk, neither of which was significantly associated with PrEP willingness (OR 5.07, 95% CI 0.73-35.09) and (OR 1.58, 95% CI 0.37-6.79), respectively. Model 3: After removing actual sexual HIV risk, MSM with high compared to low perceived risk were more willing to use PrEP (OR 6.85, 95% CI 1.23-38.05), and the HIRI-MSM general risk index was not associated with PrEP willingness (OR 1.87, 95% CI 0.54-6.54). Therefore, actual sexual HIV risk was the best predictor of PrEP willingness and general HIV risk did not inform PrEP willingness.

Joint distribution approaches to simultaneously quantifying benefit and risk.

PubMed

Shaffer, Michele L; Watterberg, Kristi L

2006-10-12

The benefit-risk ratio has been proposed to measure the tradeoff between benefits and risks of two therapies for a single binary measure of efficacy and a single adverse event. The ratio is calculated from the difference in risk and difference in benefit between therapies. Small sample sizes or expected differences in benefit or risk can lead to no solution or problematic solutions for confidence intervals. Alternatively, using the joint distribution of benefit and risk, confidence regions for the differences in risk and benefit can be constructed in the benefit-risk plane. The information in the joint distribution can be summarized by choosing regions of interest in this plane. Using Bayesian methodology provides a very flexible framework for summarizing information in the joint distribution. Data from a National Institute of Child Health & Human Development trial of hydrocortisone illustrate the construction of confidence regions and regions of interest in the benefit-risk plane, where benefit is survival without supplemental oxygen at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, and risk is gastrointestinal perforation. For the subgroup of infants exposed to chorioamnionitis the confidence interval based on the benefit-risk ratio is wide (Benefit-risk ratio: 1.52; 90% confidence interval: 0.23 to 5.25). Choosing regions of appreciable risk and acceptable risk in the benefit-risk plane confirms the uncertainty seen in the wide confidence interval for the benefit-risk ratio--there is a greater than 50% chance of falling into the region of acceptable risk--while visually allowing the uncertainty in risk and benefit to be shown separately. Applying Bayesian methodology, an incremental net health benefit analysis shows there is a 72% chance of having a positive incremental net benefit if hydrocortisone is used in place of placebo if one is willing to incur at most one gastrointestinal perforation for each additional infant that survives without supplemental oxygen. If the benefit-risk ratio is presented, the joint distribution of benefit and risk also should be shown. These regions avoid the ambiguity associated with collapsing benefit and risk to a single dimension. Bayesian methods allow even greater flexibility in simultaneously quantifying benefit and risk.

Managing Risk for Cassini During Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MOandDA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witkowski, Mona M.

2002-01-01

A Risk Management Process has been tailored for Cassini that not only satisfies the requirements of NASA and JPL, but also allows the Program to proactively identify and assess risks that threaten mission objectives. Cassini Risk Management is a team effort that involves both management and engineering staff. The process is managed and facilitated by the Mission Assurance Manager (MAM), but requires regular interactions with Program Staff and team members to instill the risk management philosophy into the day to day mission operations. While Risk Management is well defined for projects in the development phase, it is a relatively new concept for Mission Operations. The Cassini team has embraced this process and has begun using it in an effective, proactive manner, to ensure mission success. It is hoped that the Cassini Risk Management Process will form the basis by which risk management is conducted during MO&DA on future projects. proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working put into place will become visible and will be illusmted in future papers.

Cancer risk communication in mainstream and ethnic newspapers.

PubMed

Stryker, Jo Ellen; Fishman, Jessica; Emmons, Karen M; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2009-01-01

We wanted to understand how cancer risks are communicated in mainstream and ethnic newspapers, to determine whether the 2 kinds of newspapers differ and to examine features of news stories and sources that might predict optimal risk communication. Optimal risk communication was defined as presenting the combination of absolute risk, relative risk, and prevention response efficacy information. We collected data by conducting a content analysis of cancer news coverage from 2003 (5,327 stories in major newspapers, 565 stories in ethnic newspapers). Comparisons of mainstream and ethnic newspapers were conducted by using cross-tabulations and Pearson chi2 tests for significance. Logistic regression equations were computed to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for optimal risk communication. In both kinds of newspapers, cancer risks were rarely communicated numerically. When numeric presentations of cancer risks were used, only 26.2% of mainstream and 29.5% of ethnic newspaper stories provided estimates of both absolute and relative risk. For both kinds of papers, only 19% of news stories presented risk communication optimally. Cancer risks were more likely to be communicated optimally if they focused on prostate cancer, were reports of new research, or discussed medical or demographic risks. Research is needed to understand how these nonnumeric and decontextualized presentations of risk might contribute to inaccurate risk perceptions among news consumers.

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.

PubMed

Challinor, Andy J; Adger, W Neil; Benton, Tim G; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-13

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment. © 2018 The Author(s).

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-01

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

Development of innovative methods for risk assessment in high-rise construction based on clustering of risk factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Shalnev, Oleg

2018-03-01

The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.

Impact of genetic risk information and type of disease on perceived risk, anticipated affect, and expected consequences of genetic tests.

PubMed

Cameron, Linda D; Sherman, Kerry A; Marteau, Theresa M; Brown, Paul M

2009-05-01

Genetic tests vary in their prediction of disease occurrence, with some mutations conferring relatively low risk and others indicating near certainty. The authors assessed how increments in absolute risk of disease influence risk perceptions, interest, and expected consequences of genetic tests for diseases of varying severity. Adults (N = 752), recruited from New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom for an online analogue study, were randomly assigned to receive information about a test of genetic risk for diabetes, heart disease, colon cancer, or lung cancer. The lifetime risk varied across conditions by 10% increments, from 20% to 100%. Participants completed measures of perceived likelihood of disease for individuals with mutations, risk-related affect, interest, and testing consequences. Analyses revealed two increment clusters yielding differences in likelihood perceptions: A "moderate-risk" cluster (20%-70%), and a "high-risk" cluster (80%-100%). Risk increment influenced anticipated worry, feelings of risk, testing-induced distress, and family obligations, with nonlinear patterns including disproportionately high responses for the 50% increment. Risk increment did not alter testing interest or perceived benefits. These patterns of effects held across the four diseases. Magnitude of risk from genetic testing has a nonlinear influence on risk-related appraisals and affect but is unrelated to test interest.

The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework.

PubMed

Wong, Catherine Mei Ling

2015-11-01

This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor-network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five-stage process of co-selection, co-design, co-planning, and co-regulation to facilitate the co-production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

From preparedness to risk: from the singular risk of nuclear war to the plurality of all hazards.

PubMed

Deville, Joe; Guggenheim, Michael

2017-08-17

Debates on risk have largely assumed risk to be the outcome of calculative practices. There is a related assumption that risk objects come only in one form, and that the reason not everything can be transformed into a risk is because of the difficulties in calculating and creating universal quantitative comparisons. In this article, building on recent studies of preparedness that have broadened understandings of risk, we provide an analysis of how preparedness measures might themselves produce risk, in particular through risk's durable instantiation, or what we call 'concretization'. Our empirical focus is on how government agencies in two countries shifted their attention from the risk of nuclear attack during the Cold War to an all hazards approach to preparedness. Comparing the mid- to late-twentieth century histories of the UK and Switzerland, we show that both countries shifted from focusing from a single risk to plural risks. This shift cannot be explained by a change in prevailing calculative practices, or by the fact that the risks changed historically. Instead, it is driven by historically specific changes in how risks are produced and reproduced in relation to how materializations of risk operate over time. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauder, Stephen P.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration (ESI) Risk. An ESI risk may require visibility and risk handling by multiple organizations. The Integrated Risk Working Group (IRWG) is a small team of Risk experts that are responsible for collaborating and communicating best practices. In addition, the forum facilitates proper integration of risks across the Enterprise. The IRWG uses a Continuous Risk Management approach for facilitating the identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and controlling of ESI Risks. The ESD Division, Programs, and Integrated Task Teams identify ESI Risks. The IRWG maintains a set of metrics for understanding Enterprise Risk process and the overall Risk Posture. The team is also actively involved in the modeling of risk for Enterprise Performance Management. With the Enterprise being constrained in Schedule and Budget, and with significant technical complexity, the appropriate use of Risk Management techniques is crucial to the success of the Enterprise. The IRWG achieves this through the modified approach, providing a forum for collaboration on risks that cross boundaries between the separate entities.

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

PubMed

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a web‐based risk score for seven British black and minority ethnic groups

PubMed Central

Brindle, P; May, M; Gill, P; Cappuccio, F; D'Agostino, R; Fischbacher, C; Ebrahim, S

2006-01-01

Objective To recalibrate an existing Framingham risk score to produce a web‐based tool for estimating the 10‐year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in seven British black and minority ethnic groups. Design Risk prediction models were recalibrated against survey data on ethnic group risk factors and disease prevalence compared with the general population. Ethnic‐ and sex‐specific 10‐year risks of CHD and CVD, at the means of the risk factors for each ethnic group, were calculated from the product of the incidence rate in the general population and the prevalence ratios for each ethnic group. Setting Two community‐based surveys. Participants 3778 men and 4544 women, aged 35–54, from the Health Surveys for England 1998 and 1999 and the Wandsworth Heart and Stroke Study. Main outcome measures 10‐year risk of CHD and CVD. Results 10‐year risk of CHD and CVD for non‐smoking people aged 50 years with a systolic blood pressure of 130 mm Hg and a total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio of 4.2 was highest in men for those of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin (CVD risk 12.6% and 12.8%, respectively). CHD risk in men with the same risk factor values was lowest in Caribbeans (2.8%) and CVD risk was lowest in Chinese (5.4%). Women of Pakistani origin were at highest risk and Chinese women at lowest risk for both outcomes with CVD risks of 6.6% and 1.2%, respectively. A web‐based risk calculator (ETHRISK) allows 10‐year risks to be estimated in routine primary care settings for relevant risk factor and ethnic group combinations. Conclusions In the absence of cohort studies in the UK that include significant numbers of black and minority ethnic groups, this risk score provides a pragmatic solution to including people from diverse ethnic backgrounds in the primary prevention of CVD. PMID:16762981

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

PubMed

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

PubMed Central

Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

2014-01-01

Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks. PMID:25210944

Project Recon

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-14

Management tool • Current Risk Recon functionality • Issues Recon & Opportunity Recon – Launching Fall 2012 • FMEA and Lessons Learned – Planned Future...Lessons learned UNCLASSIFIED Integrated Risk Management FMEA Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Risk Recon Fields from FMEA software pre...populate Risk Info sheet. Risk Mitigation from Risk Recon trace back and populate FMEA , new RPN numbers. Issues Recon When a risk becomes an issue

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

Treesearch

Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

2015-01-01

Research across a variety of risk domains finds that the risk perceptions of professionals and the public differ. Such risk perception gaps occur if professionals and the public understand individual risk factors differently or if they aggregate risk factors into overall risk differently. The nature of such divergences, whether based on objective inaccuracies or on...

Epidemiology of ischemic heart disease in HIV.

PubMed

Triant, Virginia A; Grinspoon, Steven K

2017-11-01

The purpose of this review is to summarize and synthesize recent data on the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in HIV-infected individuals. Recent studies in the field demonstrate an increasing impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) on morbidity and mortality in HIV relative to AIDS-related diagnoses. Studies continue to support an approximately 1.5 to two-fold increased risk of IHD conferred by HIV, with specific risk varying by sex and virologic/immunologic status. Risk factors include both traditional CVD risk factors and novel, HIV-specific factors including inflammation and immune activation. Specific antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs may increase CVD risk, yet the net effect of ART with viral suppression is beneficial with regard to CVD risk. Management of cardiovascular risk and prevention of CVD is complex, because current general population strategies target traditional CVD risk factors only. Extensive investigation is being directed at developing tailored CVD risk prediction algorithms and interventions to reduce CVD risk in HIV. Increased IHD risk is a significant clinical and public health challenge in HIV. The development and application of HIV-specific interventions to manage CVD risk factors and reduce CVD risk will improve the long-term health of this ageing population.

Risk Assessment in the UK Health and Safety System: Theory and Practice.

PubMed

Russ, Karen

2010-09-01

In the UK, a person or organisation that creates risk is required to manage and control that risk so that it is reduced 'So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable' (SFAIRP). How the risk is managed is to be determined by those who create the risk. They have a duty to demonstrate that they have taken action to ensure all risk is reduced SFAIRP and must have documentary evidence, for example a risk assessment or safety case, to prove that they manage the risks their activities create. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) does not tell organisations how to manage the risks they create but does inspect the quality of risk identification and management. This paper gives a brief overview of where responsibility for occupational health and safety lies in the UK, and how risk should be managed through risk assessment. The focus of the paper is three recent major UK incidents, all involving fatalities, and all of which were wholly avoidable if risks had been properly assessed and managed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the common failings of risk assessments and key actions for improvement.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

RISK COMMUNICATION FOR ES&H PROFESSIONALS AND LINE SUPERVISORS PARTICIPANT MANUAL COURSE NUMBER 004111 REV 0.1 JULY 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

ALDRIDGE PK; ROCKS S

This course will help you successfully apply risk communication principles when interacting with workers regarding work hazards. What Is the Difference Between a Risk and a Hazard? In many cases, the terms 'risk' and 'hazard' are incorrectly used interchangeably. A hazard is a physical condition or practice with the potential for causing harm/adverse effects. A risk is the probability of harm/adverse effects occurring from an exposure to a hazard. It is modified by the severity of harm (the consequence). Once a hazard is identified, a risk assessment is conducted to determine the severity of the risk. It uses scientific methodsmore » and rigorous tests to determine the effects of the risk on people and the environment. Risk Management takes data from the risk assessment and writes policies to help protect people and the environment against the risk. Risk communication is an ongoing process that starts soon after a hazard is identified and continues through the writing of policies. In the past, governing agencies did not do a good job of communicating risk; they would only communicate about risk after studies had been conducted and policies written.« less

An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2018-05-01

To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Increasing colorectal cancer screening among individuals in the carpentry trade: test of risk communication interventions.

PubMed

Lipkus, Isaac M; Skinner, Celette Sugg; Dement, John; Pompeii, Lisa; Moser, Barry; Samsa, Gregory P; Ransohoff, David

2005-05-01

Individuals in the carpentry trade, due to lifestyle habits and occupational exposures, may be at above-average risk for colorectal cancer (CRC). Based on the literature which suggests that increasing perceived risk motivates behavior change, we report on the effectiveness of four risk-communication interventions targeted to increase initial, yearly and repeat fecal occult screening (FOBT) among carpenters (N = 860) over a 3-year period. Our 2 x 2 factorial design intervention study varied two dimensions of providing CRC risk factor information: (1) type of risk factor-one set of interventions emphasized three basic risk factors (age, family history and polyps); the other set emphasized a comprehensive set of risk factors including basic, lifestyle, and occupational factors, and (2) tailoring/not tailoring risk factor information. Participants were provided FOBTs. Outcomes were the proportion of returned FOBTs. Varying the amount and intensity of delivering CRC risk factors information affected neither risk perceptions nor initial, yearly, or repeat screening. However, yearly and repeat screening rates were greater among participants who received interventions addressing comprehensive set of risk factors, especially with increasing age. Tailoring on several CRC risk factors appears insufficient to increase and sustain elevated perceptions of CRC risks to promote screening.

Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

PubMed

Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

2017-07-01

Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

PubMed

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

2007-01-01

Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

Development and implementation of a business continuity management risk index.

PubMed

Kadar, Michael

This paper will present the building blocks for developing and implementing the BCM risk index; whether it is used as a comprehensive metric for risk or preparedness. This paper introduces the concept of a business continuity management (BCM) risk index--a comprehensive metric that measures and reports the status of the primary 'intended outcome' of the BCM programme to top management. In addition to measuring the primary programme output,;the BCM risk index can be used to demonstrate the overall value of the BCM programme to executive management. This is accomplished because the BCM risk index allows quantitative measurement of current risk levels and their comparison with established risk tolerances. The BCM Risk Index can provide executive management with reports on the risk level of individual business units, departments, subsidiaries or the enterprise in a way that drives both risk management and BCM initiatives. The name 'risk index' can be misleading, however. The BCM risk index concept can also be used to measure preparedness levels. In fact, implementation at DTE Energy has resulted in calling it the 'preparedness index', which is used to measure and report preparedness levels rather than risk levels.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

PubMed

Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Astha, K C; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K; Adsuar, José C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas K D; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G; Gansevoort, Ron T; García-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kany Roseline, Sidibe S; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez Hernandez, Julio C; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, José R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Téllez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J

2015-12-05

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of risk management: an analysis of project risk planning across industries and countries.

PubMed

Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark

2011-01-01

This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

Risk-dependent reward value signal in human prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Tobler, Philippe N.; Christopoulos, George I.; O'Doherty, John P.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Schultz, Wolfram

2009-01-01

When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the expected value and risk of each option, and choose the one with the higher utility. Expected value increases the expected utility of an option for all individuals. Risk increases the utility of an option for risk-seeking individuals, but decreases it for risk averse individuals. In 2 separate experiments, one involving imperative (no-choice), the other choice situations, we investigated how predicted risk and expected value aggregate into a common reward signal in the human brain. Blood oxygen level dependent responses in lateral regions of the prefrontal cortex increased monotonically with increasing reward value in the absence of risk in both experiments. Risk enhanced these responses in risk-seeking participants, but reduced them in risk-averse participants. The aggregate value and risk responses in lateral prefrontal cortex contrasted with pure value signals independent of risk in the striatum. These results demonstrate an aggregate risk and value signal in the prefrontal cortex that would be compatible with basic assumptions underlying the mean-variance approach to utility. PMID:19369207

Disease risk curves.

PubMed

Hughes, G; Burnett, F J; Havis, N D

2013-11-01

Disease risk curves are simple graphical relationships between the probability of need for treatment and evidence related to risk factors. In the context of the present article, our focus is on factors related to the occurrence of disease in crops. Risk is the probability of adverse consequences; specifically in the present context it denotes the chance that disease will reach a threshold level at which crop protection measures can be justified. This article describes disease risk curves that arise when risk is modeled as a function of more than one risk factor, and when risk is modeled as a function of a single factor (specifically the level of disease at an early disease assessment). In both cases, disease risk curves serve as calibration curves that allow the accumulated evidence related to risk to be expressed on a probability scale. When risk is modeled as a function of the level of disease at an early disease assessment, the resulting disease risk curve provides a crop loss assessment model in which the downside is denominated in terms of risk rather than in terms of yield loss.

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Endemic: Maintaining Disease Transmission in At-Risk Urban Areas.

PubMed

Rothenberg, Richard B; Dai, Dajun; Adams, Mary Anne; Heath, John Wesley

2017-02-01

A study of network relationships, geographic contiguity, and risk behavior was designed to test the hypothesis that all 3 are required to maintain endemicity of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in at-risk urban communities. Specifically, a highly interactive network, close geographic proximity, and compound risk (multiple high-risk activities with multiple partners) would be required. We enrolled 927 participants from two contiguous geographic areas in Atlanta, GA: a higher-risk area and lower-risk area, as measured by history of HIV reporting. We began by enrolling 30 "seeds" (15 in each area) who were comparable in their demographic and behavioral characteristics, and constructed 30 networks using a chain-link design. We assessed each individual's geographic range; measured the network characteristics of those in the higher and lower-risk areas; and measured compound risk as the presence of two or more (of 6) major risks for HIV. Among participants in the higher-risk area, the frequency of compound risk was 15%, compared with 5% in the lower-risk area. Geographic cohesion in the higher-risk group was substantially higher than that in the lower-risk group, based on comparison of geographic distance and social distance, and on the extent of overlap of personal geographic range. The networks in the 2 areas were similar: both areas show highly interactive networks with similar degree distributions, and most measures of network attributes were virtually the same. Our original hypothesis was supported in part. The higher and lower-risk groups differed appreciably with regard to risk and geographic cohesion, but were substantially the same with regard to network properties. These results suggest that a "minimum" network configuration may be required for maintenance of endemic transmission, but a particular prevalence level may be determined by factors related to risk, geography, and possibly other factors.

Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Verschuren, W M Monique

2015-10-01

Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Population-based cohort study. Risk factors were measured at baseline (1987-1991) among 5574 cardiovascular disease-free adults aged 20-59 years. They were classified into four risk categories according to smoking status, presence of diabetes and widely accepted cut-off values for blood pressure, total cholesterol/HDL-ratio and body mass index. Categories were subdivided (maintenance, deterioration, improvement) based on risk factor levels at six and 11 years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cardiovascular disease incidence 5-10 years following the risk-change period were fitted using Cox proportional hazards models. Only 12% of participants were low risk at baseline, and only 7% maintained it. Participants who maintained a low risk profile over 11 years had seven times lower risk of cardiovascular disease (HR: 0.14, 95% CI: 0.05-0.41) than participants with long-term high risk profile, whereas those low risk at baseline whose profile deteriorated had three times lower risk (HR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.71). Our results suggest that, within each baseline risk profile group, compared with a stable profile, improving profiles may be associated with up to two-fold lower HRs, and deteriorating profiles with about two-fold higher HRs. Our study, using long-term risk profiles, demonstrates the full benefits of low risk profile. These findings underscore the importance of achieving and maintaining low risk from young adulthood onwards. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Liu, Jing; Wang, Wei; Wang, Miao; Qi, Yue; Xie, Wuxiang; Li, Yan; Sun, Jiayi; Liu, Jun; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

Objective: Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China. Methods: The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35–84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35–60 years. Results: A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35–40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8–10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35–60 years at baseline. Conclusion: In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation. PMID:27512963

Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

PubMed

Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

2016-11-01

Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Perception and risk factors for cervical cancer among women in northern Ghana.

PubMed

Opoku, Constance A; Browne, Edmund Nii Laryea; Spangenberg, Kathryn; Moyer, Cheryl; Kolbilla, David; Gold, Katherine J

2016-06-01

This study assessed the perception of risk of cervical cancer and existence of risk factors for cervical cancer based on five known risk factors among women attending the Tamale Teaching Hospital in Tamale, Ghana. A consecutive sample of 300 women was interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to inquire about risk factors and perception of risk of cervical cancer. Specific risk factors that were explored included early coitarche, multiple sexual partners, polygamous relationships, history of smoking, and having a current partner who had multiple sexual partners. Sixty-one per cent of women reported that they had no personal risk for cervical cancer. 27% of respondents were in polygamous relationships, and of those, more than half didn't think they were at an increased risk of cervical cancer. 2 women had a total of ≥ 5 sexual partners in their lifetime and neither believed they were at any risk for cervical cancer. 23% said their current partner had had at least 2 sexual partners in his lifetime, and of those, (61%) thought they were at no risk for cervical cancer. 46% of respondents reported not having any of the risk factors listed in the study. 23% of respondents reported having one risk factor while 21% had two risk factors and 11% had three or more risk factors. Women's perception of personal risk for cervical cancer is lower than their actual risk based on the five behavioural risk factors assessed and a lack of knowledge of the personal factors for the disease. This project was supported by NIH Research Training Grant #R25 TW009345 funded by the Fogarty International Centre, in partnership with several NIH Institutes (NIMH, NIGMS, NHLBI, OAR and OWH).

Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

2014-09-01

Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

Healthy co-twins of patients with affective disorders show reduced risk-related activation of the insula during a monetary gambling task.

PubMed

Macoveanu, Julian; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars V; Vinberg, Maj; Siebner, Hartwig R

2016-01-01

Healthy first-degree relatives of patients with affective disorders are at increased risk for affective disorders and express discrete structural and functional abnormalities in the brain reward system. However, value-based decision making is not well understood in these at-risk individuals. We investigated healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins with or without a co-twin history of affective disorders (high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively) using functional MRI during a gambling task. We assessed group differences in activity related to gambling risk over the entire brain. We included 30 monozygotic and 37 dizygotic twins in our analysis. Neural activity in the anterior insula and ventral striatum increased linearly with the amount of gambling risk in the entire cohort. Individual neuroticism scores were positively correlated with the neural response in the ventral striatum to increasing gambling risk and negatively correlated with individual risk-taking behaviour. Compared with low-risk twins, the high-risk twins showed a bilateral reduction of risk-related activity in the middle insula extending into the temporal cortex with increasing gambling risk. Post hoc analyses revealed that this effect was strongest in dizygotic twins. The relatively old average age of the mono- and dizygotic twin cohort (49.2 yr) may indicate an increased resilience to affective disorders. The size of the monozygotic high-risk group was relatively small (n = 13). The reduced processing of risk magnitude in the middle insula may indicate a deficient integration of exteroceptive information related to risk-related cues with interoceptive states in individuals at familial risk for affective disorders. Impaired risk processing might contribute to increased vulnerability to affective disorders.

Potential impact of single-risk-factor versus total risk management for the prevention of cardiovascular events in Seychelles.

PubMed

Ndindjock, Roger; Gedeon, Jude; Mendis, Shanthi; Paccaud, Fred; Bovet, Pascal

2011-04-01

To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol ≥ 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk ≥ 10% or ≥ 20%). CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40-64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (≥ 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication. A total CV risk of ≥ 10% and ≥ 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted. Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.

Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

2009-01-01

Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

PubMed

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

The influence of uncertain map features on risk beliefs and perceived ambiguity for maps of modeled cancer risk from air pollution

PubMed Central

Myers, Jeffrey D.

2012-01-01

Maps are often used to convey information generated by models, for example, modeled cancer risk from air pollution. The concrete nature of images, such as maps, may convey more certainty than warranted for modeled information. Three map features were selected to communicate the uncertainty of modeled cancer risk: (a) map contours appeared in or out of focus, (b) one or three colors were used, and (c) a verbal-relative or numeric risk expression was used in the legend. Study aims were to assess how these features influenced risk beliefs and the ambiguity of risk beliefs at four assigned map locations that varied by risk level. We applied an integrated conceptual framework to conduct this full factorial experiment with 32 maps that varied by the three dichotomous features and four risk levels; 826 university students participated. Data was analyzed using structural equation modeling. Unfocused contours and the verbal-relative risk expression generated more ambiguity than their counterparts. Focused contours generated stronger risk beliefs for higher risk levels and weaker beliefs for lower risk levels. Number of colors had minimal influence. The magnitude of risk level, conveyed using incrementally darker shading, had a substantial dose-response influence on the strength of risk beliefs. Personal characteristics of prior beliefs and numeracy also had substantial influences. Bottom-up and top-down information processing suggest why iconic visual features of incremental shading and contour focus had the strongest visual influences on risk beliefs and ambiguity. Variations in contour focus and risk expression show promise for fostering appropriate levels of ambiguity. PMID:22985196

Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project. [Basalt Waste Isolation Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B.

1988-03-01

The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organizedmore » as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab.« less

[Nutritional risk screening and its clinical significance in 706 children hospitalized in the surgical department].

PubMed

Peng, Lu-Ting; Li, Rong; Zhao, Wei-Hua; Chen, Yin-Hua; Li, Xiao-Mei; Chen, Meng-Ying; Cao, Jia; Li, Xiao-Nan

2013-10-01

To investigate nutritional risk and its relationship with clinical outcome in children hospitalized in the surgical department, and to provide a scientific basis for clinical nutrition management. Nutritional risk screening was performed on 706 children hospitalized in the surgical department using the Screening Tool for Risk on Nutritional Status and Growth. The data on nutritional support during hospitalization, incidence of infectious complications, length of hospital stay, post operative length of hospital stay and total hospital expenses were recorded. Of the 706 cases, 11.5% had high nutritional risk, 46.0% had moderate nutritional risk, and 42.5% had low nutritional risk. Congenital hypertrophic pyloric stenosis, intestinal obstruction and congenital heart disease were the three most common types of high nutritional risk. The incidence of high nutritional risk was significantly higher in infants than in other age groups (P<0.01). Fifty-two (64.2%) of the eighty-one children with high nutritional risk received parenteral nutrition. Children with high nutritional risk were significantly more likely to have weight loss than children with low nutritional risk (P<0.05). Children with high nutritional risk had significantly increased incidence of infectious complications, length of hospital stay, post operative length of hospital stay and total hospital expenses compared with those with moderate or low nutritional risk (P<0.01). Moderate or high nutritional risk is seen in children hospitalized in the surgical department. Nutritional risk score is correlated with clinical outcome. Nutritional support for these children is not yet properly provided. Nutritional risk screening and standard nutritional support should be widely applied among hospitalized children.

Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the coronary health assessment study.

PubMed Central

Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035

Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

Same score, different message: perceptions of offender risk depend on Static-99R risk communication format.

PubMed

Varela, Jorge G; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Cuervo, Veronica A; Murrie, Daniel C; Clark, John W

2014-10-01

The popular Static-99R allows evaluators to convey results in terms of risk category (e.g., low, moderate, high), relative risk (compared with other sexual offenders), or normative sample recidivism rate formats (e.g., 30% reoffended in 5 years). But we do not know whether judges and jurors draw similar conclusions about the same Static-99R score when findings are communicated using different formats. Community members reporting for jury duty (N = 211) read a tutorial on the Static-99R and a description of a sexual offender and his crimes. We varied his Static-99R score (1 or 6) and risk communication format (categorical, relative risk, or recidivism rate). Participants rated the high-scoring offender as higher risk than the low-scoring offender in the categorical communication condition, but not in the relative risk or recidivism rate conditions. Moreover, risk ratings of the high-scoring offender were notably higher in the categorical communication condition than the relative risk and recidivism rate conditions. Participants who read about a low Static-99R score tended to report that Static-99R results were unimportant and difficult to understand, especially when risk was communicated using categorical or relative risk formats. Overall, results suggest that laypersons are more receptive to risk results indicating high risk than low risk and more receptive to risk communication messages that provide an interpretative label (e.g., high risk) than those that provide statistical results. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S

2017-09-01

It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

Flooding risks: a comparison of lay people's perceptions and expert's assessments in Switzerland.

PubMed

Siegrist, Michael; Gutscher, Heinz

2006-08-01

Experts on the risk of flooding have developed very detailed maps for different parts of Switzerland that indicate the types of damage possible and the probabilities of adverse events. Four categories of risk severity are defined on the maps, ranging from high risk to no risk. Based on these existing maps, we selected respondents for a mail survey, some from areas high in risk and others from low-risk regions. Respondents answered several questions related to flood risk perception and preparedness. Survey results showed that respondents' risk perceptions were correlated with the experts' risk assessments. Respondents who lived in areas designated "no risk" by the experts had lower perceptions of risk than respondents who lived in areas with higher levels of designated risk. With regard to concrete prevention behavior, no differences between people living in different risk areas were observed. Survey results further suggest that many inhabitants do not know that flooding maps exist for their region. Results suggest that in some regions people overestimate the risks associated with flooding. Consequently, some people are more afraid of flooding than is justified by the facts. Some people show prevention behavior that most likely is superfluous. However, in other regions people underestimate the risks associated with flooding. These people do not show prevention behavior, and they are not well prepared for an adverse event. Furthermore, results suggest that respondents' experiences with flooding are positively related to their perceptions of flood risk. Findings of the present study are in line with the availability heuristic.

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Time-dependent changes in mortality and transformation risk in MDS

PubMed Central

Tuechler, Heinz; Sanz, Guillermo; Schanz, Julie; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc; Bennett, John M.; Bowen, David; Fenaux, Pierre; Dreyfus, Francois; Kantarjian, Hagop; Kuendgen, Andrea; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario; Cermak, Jaroslav; Fonatsch, Christa; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Levis, Alessandro; Luebbert, Michael; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Machherndl-Spandl, Sigrid; Magalhaes, Silvia M. M.; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Sekeres, Mikkael A.; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Stauder, Reinhard; Tauro, Sudhir; Valent, Peter; Vallespi, Teresa; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A.; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Greenberg, Peter L.

2016-01-01

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), the evolution of risk for disease progression or death has not been systematically investigated despite being crucial for correct interpretation of prognostic risk scores. In a multicenter retrospective study, we described changes in risk over time, the consequences for basal prognostic scores, and their potential clinical implications. Major MDS prognostic risk scoring systems and their constituent individual predictors were analyzed in 7212 primary untreated MDS patients from the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS database. Changes in risk of mortality and of leukemic transformation over time from diagnosis were described. Hazards regarding mortality and acute myeloid leukemia transformation diminished over time from diagnosis in higher-risk MDS patients, whereas they remained stable in lower-risk patients. After approximately 3.5 years, hazards in the separate risk groups became similar and were essentially equivalent after 5 years. This fact led to loss of prognostic power of different scoring systems considered, which was more pronounced for survival. Inclusion of age resulted in increased initial prognostic power for survival and less attenuation in hazards. If needed for practicability in clinical management, the differing development of risks suggested a reasonable division into lower- and higher-risk MDS based on the IPSS-R at a cutoff of 3.5 points. Our data regarding time-dependent performance of prognostic scores reflect the disparate change of risks in MDS subpopulations. Lower-risk patients at diagnosis remain lower risk whereas initially high-risk patients demonstrate decreasing risk over time. This change of risk should be considered in clinical decision making. PMID:27335276

Predicting Cancer-Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions.

PubMed

Riddel, Mary; Hales, David

2018-05-16

Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert-assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects' tendencies to engage in cancer-risk-reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects' control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Summary Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. PMID:26364544

The Construct and Measurement of Perceived Risk of Nonremunerated Blood Donation: Evidence from the Chinese Public

PubMed Central

Chen, Liangyong

2015-01-01

The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior. PMID:26526570

The Healthy LifeWorks Project: a pilot study of the economic analysis of a comprehensive workplace wellness program in a Canadian government department.

PubMed

Makrides, Lydia; Smith, Steven; Allt, Jane; Farquharson, Jane; Szpilfogel, Claudine; Curwin, Sandra; Veinot, Paula; Wang, Feifei; Edington, Dee

2011-07-01

To examine the relationship between health risks and absenteeism and drug costs vis-a-vis comprehensive workplace wellness. Eleven health risks, and change in drug claims, short-term and general illness calculated across four risk change groups. Wellness score examined using Wilcoxon test and regression model for cost change. The results showed 31% at risk; 9 of 11 risks associated with higher drug costs. Employees moving from low to high risk showed highest relative increase (81%) in drug costs; moving from high to low had lowest (24%). Low-high had highest increase in absenteeism costs (160%). With each risk increase, absenteeism costs increased by $CDN248 per year (P < 0.05) with average decrease of 0.07 risk factors and savings $CDN6979 per year. Both high-risk reduction and low-risk maintenance are important to contain drug costs. Only low-risk maintenance also avoids absenteeism costs associated with high risks.

The Construct and Measurement of Perceived Risk of Nonremunerated Blood Donation: Evidence from the Chinese Public.

PubMed

Chen, Liangyong; Ma, Zujun

2015-01-01

The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior.

A literature review of the cardiovascular risk-assessment tools: applicability among Asian population.

PubMed

Liau, Siow Yen; Mohamed Izham, M I; Hassali, M A; Shafie, A A

2010-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases, the main causes of hospitalisations and death globally, have put an enormous economic burden on the healthcare system. Several risk factors are associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events. At the heart of efficient prevention of cardiovascular disease is the concept of risk assessment. This paper aims to review the available cardiovascular risk-assessment tools and its applicability in predicting cardiovascular risk among Asian populations. A systematic search was performed using keywords as MeSH and Boolean terms. A total of 25 risk-assessment tools were identified. Of these, only two risk-assessment tools (8%) were derived from an Asian population. These risk-assessment tools differ in various ways, including characteristics of the derivation sample, type of study, time frame of follow-up, end points, statistical analysis and risk factors included. Very few cardiovascular risk-assessment tools were developed in Asian populations. In order to accurately predict the cardiovascular risk of our population, there is a need to develop a risk-assessment tool based on local epidemiological data.

Multi-risk infants: predicting attachment security from sociodemographic, psychosocial, and health risk among African-American preterm infants.

PubMed

Candelaria, Margo; Teti, Douglas M; Black, Maureen M

2011-08-01

Ecological and transactional theories link child outcomes to accumulated risk. This study hypothesized that cumulative risk was negatively related to attachment, and that maternal sensitivity mediated linkages between risk and attachment. One hundred and twelve high-risk African-American premature infant-mother dyads participated. Psychosocial (maternal depression, stress and self-efficacy) and sociodemographic risk (poverty, maternal education, marital status) were maternal self-report (0-4 months). Infant health risk was obtained from hospital charts. Infant-mother attachment (12 months) and maternal sensitivity (4 months) were assessed with Q-sort measures. Psychosocial and sociodemographic risk, but not infant health risk, negatively related to attachment. Both were mediated by maternal sensitivity. The impact of risk domains on attachment security was mediated by maternal sensitivity. Results emphasize the need for early intervention programs targeting premature infants to identify and address environmental and personal factors that place parenting at risk. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Assessing Bleeding Risk in Patients Taking Anticoagulants

PubMed Central

Shoeb, Marwa; Fang, Margaret C.

2013-01-01

Anticoagulant medications are commonly used for the prevention and treatment of thromboembolism. Although highly effective, they are also associated with significant bleeding risks. Numerous individual clinical factors have been linked to an increased risk of hemorrhage, including older age, anemia, and renal disease. To help quantify hemorrhage risk for individual patients, a number of clinical risk prediction tools have been developed. These risk prediction tools differ in how they were derived and how they identify and weight individual risk factors. At present, their ability to effective predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhage remains modest. Use of risk prediction tools to estimate bleeding in clinical practice is most influential when applied to patients at the lower spectrum of thromboembolic risk, when the risk of hemorrhage will more strongly affect clinical decisions about anticoagulation. Using risk tools may also help counsel and inform patients about their potential risk for hemorrhage while on anticoagulants, and can identify patients who might benefit from more careful management of anticoagulation. PMID:23479259

Assessment of Occupational Health and Safety for a Gas Meter Manufacturing Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korkmaz, Ece; Iskender, Gulen; Germirli Babuna, Fatos

2016-10-01

This study investigates the occupational health and safety for a gas meter manufacturing plant. The risk assessment and management study is applied to plastic injection and mounting departments of the factory through quantitative Fine Kinney method and the effect of adopting 5S workplace organization procedure on risk assessment is examined. The risk assessment reveals that there are 17 risks involved; 14 grouped in high risk class (immediate improvement as required action); 2 in significant (measures to be taken as required action) and one in possible risk class (monitoring as required action). Among 14 high risks, 4 can be reduced by 83 % to be grouped under possible class when 5S is applied. One significant risk is observed to be lowered by 78 % and considered as possible risk due to the application of 5S. As a result of either 67 or 50 % reductions in 7 high risks, these risks are converted to be members of significant risk group after 5S implications.

Factors associated with blue-collar workers' risk perception of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Hwang, Won Ju; Hong, Oisaeng; Kim, Mi Ja

2012-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the contribution of actual cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, as well as, individual, psychosocial, and work-related factors as predictors of CVD risk perception among Korean blue-collar workers. The participants were 238 Korean blue-collar workers who worked in small companies. Data were collected through a survey; anthropometric and blood pressure measures; and blood sampling for lipid levels. Blue-collar workers had high actual CVD risk and low CVD risk perception. The significant predictors of risk perception included perceived health status, alcohol consumption, knowledge of CVD risk, actual CVD risk, decision latitude, and shift work. The model explained 26% of the variance in CVD risk perception. The result suggests when occupational health nurses are giving routine health examination in small companies, they can enhance CVD risk perception in blue-collar workers by providing essential information about CVD risk factors and personal counseling on the individual worker's CVD risk status.

Barriers in using cardiometabolic risk information among consumers with low health literacy.

PubMed

Damman, Olga C; Bogaerts, Nina M M; van Dongen, Diana; Timmermans, Danielle R M

2016-02-01

To identify the barriers from the perspective of consumers with low health literacy in using risk information as provided in cardiometabolic risk assessments. A qualitative thematic approach using cognitive interviews was employed. We performed interviews with 23 people with low health literacy/health numeracy, who were recruited through (1) several organisations and snowball sampling and (2) an online access panel. Participants completed the risk test of the Dutch national cardiometabolic risk assessment and viewed the personalized information about their risk. They were asked to answer probing questions about different parts of the information. The qualitative data were analysed by identifying main themes related to barriers in using the information, using a descriptive thematic approach. The four main themes identified were as follows: (1) People did not fully accept the risk message, partly because numerical information had ambiguous meaning; (2) people lacked an adequate framework for understanding their risk; (3) the purpose and setting of the risk assessment was unclear; and (4) current information tells nothing new: A need for more specific risk information. The main barriers were that the current presentation seemed to provoke undervaluation of the risk number and that texts throughout the test, for example about cardiometabolic diseases, did not match people's existing knowledge, failing to provide an adequate framework for understanding cardiometabolic risk. Our findings have implications for the design of disease risk information, for example that alternative forms of communication should be explored that provide more intuitive meaning of the risk in terms of good versus bad. What is already known on this subject? Online disease risk assessments have become widely available internationally. People with low SES and health literacy tend to participate less in health screening. Risk information is difficult to understand, yet little research has been carried out among people with low health literacy. What does this study add? People with low health literacy do not optimally use risk information in an online cardiometabolic risk assessment. The texts provided in the cardiometabolic risk assessment do not suit to their existing knowledge. The typical risk communication (numbers, bar graph, verbal label) seems to provoke undervaluation of risk. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort.

PubMed

Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M; Moons, Philip; De Geest, Sabina; Fridlund, Bengt; Heikkilä, Johanna; Jaarsma, Tiny; Lenzen, Mattie; Martensson, Jan; Norekvål, Tone M; Smith, Karen; Stewart, Simon; Strömberg, Anna; Thompson, David R

2006-12-01

Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (kappa(w)). Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (> or =5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of <1%, while 13% reported having a risk > or =5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was <1% for 96% of responders: only 2% had a > or =5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (kappa(w)=0.27). Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.

Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Cohort Studies of Suicide Risk Assessment among Psychiatric Patients: Heterogeneity in Results and Lack of Improvement over Time

PubMed Central

Large, Matthew; Kaneson, Muthusamy; Myles, Nicholas; Myles, Hannah; Gunaratne, Pramudie; Ryan, Christopher

2016-01-01

Objective It is widely assumed that the clinical care of psychiatric patients can be guided by estimates of suicide risk and by using patient characteristics to define a group of high-risk patients. However, the statistical strength and reliability of suicide risk categorization is unknown. Our objective was to investigate the odds of suicide in high-risk compared to lower-risk categories and the suicide rates in high-risk and lower-risk groups. Method We located longitudinal cohort studies where psychiatric patients or people who had made suicide attempts were stratified into high-risk and lower-risk groups for suicide with suicide mortality as the outcome by searching for peer reviewed publications indexed in PubMed or PsychINFO. Electronic searches were supplemented by hand searching of included studies and relevant review articles. Two authors independently extracted data regarding effect size, study population and study design from 53 samples of risk-assessed patients reported in 37 studies. Results The pooled odds of suicide among high-risk patients compared to lower-risk patients calculated by random effects meta-analysis was of 4.84 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 3.79–6.20). Between-study heterogeneity was very high (I2 = 93.3). There was no evidence that more recent studies had greater statistical strength than older studies. Over an average follow up period of 63 months the proportion of suicides among the high-risk patients was 5.5% and was 0.9% among lower-risk patients. The meta-analytically derived sensitivity and specificity of a high-risk categorization were 56% and 79% respectively. There was evidence of publication bias in favour of studies that inflated the pooled odds of suicide in high-risk patients. Conclusions The strength of suicide risk categorizations based on the presence of multiple risk factors does not greatly exceed the association between individual suicide risk factors and suicide. A statistically strong and reliable method to usefully distinguish patients with a high-risk of suicide remains elusive. PMID:27285387

Shuttle Risk Progression: Use of the Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to Show Reliability Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri L.

2011-01-01

It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is given.

Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China

PubMed Central

Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang

2017-01-01

Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded. PMID:28272359

Gender and perceptions of romantic partners' sexual risk.

PubMed

Conley, Terri D; Peplau, Letitia Anne

2010-02-01

Research shows that in most situations, women perceive themselves to be at greater risk of harm than do men. Gustafson's gender role perspective on risk perception suggests that this is because women are socialized to feel that they need protection, especially from men. Based on Gustafson's gender role perspective on sex differences in risk perception, we predicted that in at least one context, perception of romantic partners' sexual risk, this gender difference would be reversed. Specifically, women should rate boyfriends as having lower risk for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) than boyfriends rate themselves having. In two studies, we examined heterosexual couples and compared women's perceptions of their boyfriends' sexual risk level with the boyfriend's self-perception of sexual risk. Self-reported measures of risk for STIs, perception of romantic partners' risk for STIs. On multiple measures, women rated their boyfriends as having a lower risk for STIs than the men rated themselves. Men did not show this pattern and, in some cases, showed the reverse pattern of perceiving their girlfriends to have a greater level of risk than girlfriends themselves believed they had. Consistent with Gustafson's gender role perspective on risk perception, heterosexual women perceived their romantic partners as relatively less risky in terms of STI risk than men perceived themselves. One potential implication of this finding is that women may be less likely to protect themselves against disease in close romantic relationships because they believe that their partners are low risk, regardless of the partners' actual risk levels.

A New Scoring System to Predict the Risk for High-risk Adenoma and Comparison of Existing Risk Calculators.

PubMed

Murchie, Brent; Tandon, Kanwarpreet; Hakim, Seifeldin; Shah, Kinchit; O'Rourke, Colin; Castro, Fernando J

2017-04-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines likely over-generalizes CRC risk, 35% of Americans are not up to date with screening, and there is growing incidence of CRC in younger patients. We developed a practical prediction model for high-risk colon adenomas in an average-risk population, including an expanded definition of high-risk polyps (≥3 nonadvanced adenomas), exposing higher than average-risk patients. We also compared results with previously created calculators. Patients aged 40 to 59 years, undergoing first-time average-risk screening or diagnostic colonoscopies were evaluated. Risk calculators for advanced adenomas and high-risk adenomas were created based on age, body mass index, sex, race, and smoking history. Previously established calculators with similar risk factors were selected for comparison of concordance statistic (c-statistic) and external validation. A total of 5063 patients were included. Advanced adenomas, and high-risk adenomas were seen in 5.7% and 7.4% of the patient population, respectively. The c-statistic for our calculator was 0.639 for the prediction of advanced adenomas, and 0.650 for high-risk adenomas. When applied to our population, all previous models had lower c-statistic results although one performed similarly. Our model compares favorably to previously established prediction models. Age and body mass index were used as continuous variables, likely improving the c-statistic. It also reports absolute predictive probabilities of advanced and high-risk polyps, allowing for more individualized risk assessment of CRC.

Does heightening risk appraisals change people's intentions and behavior? A meta-analysis of experimental studies.

PubMed

Sheeran, Paschal; Harris, Peter R; Epton, Tracy

2014-03-01

Several theories construe risk appraisals as key determinants of decisions and actions, and this idea has been supported in correlational studies. However, correlational data cannot answer the question, "Does heightening risk appraisals change people's intentions and behavior?" The present review meta-analyzed experimental evidence in order to address this issue. We identified 4 elements of risk appraisal-risk perception, anticipatory emotion, anticipated emotion, and perceived severity-and located experiments that (a) engendered a statistically significant increase in risk appraisal among treatment compared to control participants and (b) measured subsequent intention or behavior. Heightening risk appraisals had effects of d+ = .31 (k = 217) and d+ = .23 (k = 93) on intention and behavior, respectively. There was evidence that the elements of risk appraisal combined to influence outcomes. For instance, heightening risk perceptions had larger effects on outcomes when anticipatory emotions or perceived severity was also increased. Crucially, risk appraisal effects were augmented by coping appraisals: Risk appraisals had larger effects on outcomes when response efficacy and self-efficacy were enhanced or when response costs were reduced. The largest effect sizes were observed when risk appraisals, response efficacy, and self-efficacy were simultaneously heightened (d+ = .98 and .45, for intention and behavior, respectively). These findings indicate that heightening risk appraisals changes intentions and behavior. However, the direct effects of risk appraisals were generally small. Exploiting synergies among the elements of risk appraisal, and between risk appraisals and coping appraisals, should make for more effective behavior change interventions.

The relationship between knowledge and risk for heart attack and stroke.

PubMed

Lambert, Cameron; Vinson, Seth; Shofer, Frances; Brice, Jane

2013-10-01

Stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) represent 2 of the leading causes of death in the United States. The early recognition of risk factors and event symptoms allows for the mitigation of disability or death. We sought to compare subject knowledge of stroke and MI, assess subject risk for cardiovascular disease, and determine if an association exists between knowledge and risk. In this cross-sectional survey, adult, non-health care professionals were presented with a written knowledge test and risk assessment tool. Subjects were classified into 3 categories of cardiovascular risk. Associations were then calculated between knowledge, risk, and population demographics. Of 500 subjects approached, 364 were enrolled. The subjects were mostly white, middle-aged, and high school educated. Gender and income were evenly distributed. Forty-eight (14%) subjects were identified as ideal risk, 130 (38%) as low risk, and 168 (49%) as moderate/high risk. MI and stroke knowledge scores decreased as cardiovascular risk increased (85%, 79%, and 73% for ideal, low, and moderate/high risk groups, respectively; P < .001). In addition, regardless of risk category, stroke knowledge scores were always lower than heart attack knowledge scores. Knowledge about stroke and MI was modest, with knowledge of MI exceeding that of stroke at every level of risk. Subjects with higher risk were less knowledgeable about the stroke signs, symptoms, and risk factors than those of MI. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China

PubMed Central

Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Liu, Renzhi

2017-01-01

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21–40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents. PMID:28425956

Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China.

PubMed

Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang

2017-03-07

Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual's earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

Validation of MASCC Score for Risk Stratification in Patients of Hematological Disorders with Febrile Neutropenia.

PubMed

Taj, M; Nadeem, M; Maqsood, S; Shah, T; Farzana, T; Shamsi, T S

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association of MASCC score (Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer Score) in patients with febrile neutropenia (as resultant treatment of hematological disorders) for risk assessment of morbidity and mortality. Patients presenting with Febrile Neutropenia from November 2011 till December 2013 were enrolled in the study. Initially all patients were hospitalized and their MASCC score was calculated, however those with high risk stayed in hospital till full ANC recovery while low risk group was discharged earlier and keenly followed as out-patient while being on prophylactic oral antibiotics. The MASCC risk-index score was calculated and patients with risk score >21 were regarded as low-risk while <21 were labeled as high-risk. On the basis of 226 febrile neutropenia patient 132(58.4 %) were categorized as low risk while 94(41.5 %) as high risk patients according to MASCC risk index score. In low risk group 123(93 %) had uncomplicated infection while 9(7 %) had complicated infections. There was no mortality documented in low risk group while eight patients died in high risk group. In this study we correctly predicted outcome of 123(93 %) low risk group patients. The study had positive predictive value of 93 % with both sensitivity and specificity of 65 and 75 % respectively. The MASCC risk score is a valuable tool in determining the outcome in patients with febrile neutropenia.

Stroke Risk Perception in Atrial Fibrillation Patients is not Associated with Clinical Stroke Risk.

PubMed

Fournaise, Anders; Skov, Jane; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Leppin, Anja

2015-11-01

Clinical risk stratification models, such as the CHA2DS2-VASc, are used to assess stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. No study has yet investigated whether and to which extent these patients have a realistic perception of their personal stroke risk. The purpose of this study was to investigate and describe the association between AF patients' stroke risk perception and clinical stroke risk. In an observational cross-sectional study design, we surveyed 178 AF patients with a mean age of 70.6 years (SD 8.3) in stable anticoagulant treatment (65% treatment duration >12 months). Clinical stroke risk was scored through the CHA2DS2-VASc, and patients rated their perceived personal stroke risk on a 7-point Likert scale. There was no significant association between clinical stroke risk assessment and patients' stroke risk perception (rho = .025; P = .741). Approximately 60% of the high-risk patients had an unrealistic perception of their own stroke risk, and there was no significant increase in risk perception from those with a lower compared with a higher risk factor load (χ(2) = .010; P = .522). Considering possible negative implications in terms of lack of motivation for lifestyle behavior change and adequate adherence to the treatment and monitoring of vitamin K antagonist, the apparent underestimation of risk by large subgroups warrants attention and needs further investigation with regard to possible behavioral consequences. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

The Effect of Subjective Risk Attitudes and Overconfidence on Risk Taking Behaviors: A Experimental Study Based on Traders of the Chinese Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qi-An; Xiao, Yinghong; Chen, Hui; Chen, Liang

Our research analyzes the effect of the traders’ subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence on their risk taking behaviors on the Chinese Stock Market by experimental study method. We find that investors’ risk taking behavior is significantly affected by their subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence. Our results also argue that the objective return and volatility of stock are not as good predictors of risk taking behavior as subjective risk and return measures. Moreover, we illustrate that overconfidence and optimism have an significant impact on risk taking behavior In line with theoretical models.

Risk Management Structured for Today's Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenfield, Michael A.

1998-01-01

In NPG (NASA Procedures and Guidelines) 7120.5A, we define risk management as "an organized, systematic decision-making process that efficiently identifies, analyzes, plans, tracks, controls, and communicates and documents risk in order to increase the likelihood of achieving program/project goals." Effective risk management depends upon a thorough understanding of the concept of risk, the principles of risk management and the formation of a disciplined risk management process. In human spaceflight programs, NASA has always maintained a rigorous and highly structured risk management effort. When lives are at stake, NASA's missions must be 100% safe; the risk management approach used in human spaceflight has always been comprehensive.

Back to basics--just how much should a risk manager know about risk financing?

PubMed

Miller, Vivian B

2011-01-01

Whether directly involved in development and implementation of the organization's risk financing program or not, risk management professionals, at the very least, need to be familiar with and understand the various risk financing strategies available to address all areas of exposure. This article addresses the types of coverages and risk financing options that should be considered when developing a comprehensive risk-financing program, and why it is important for risk management professionals to have some knowledge about these products, in order for their true value to be fully appreciated. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Discerning the impact of personal and situational variables in risk perception of coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Figueiras, Maria João; Maroco, João; Monteiro, Rita; Caeiro, Raúl; Neto, David D

2017-03-01

Research into how people perceive risk has highlighted the interaction between the available information and personal variables and their impact on judgement. This study sought to identify demographic and health variables that influenced risk and the influence of individual risk assessment, dispositional optimism and negative affect on judgement. A total of 476 participants were asked to make risks judgements of 24 vignettes depicting hypothetical risk scenarios. The findings showed that while people are able to correctly recognise, in others, relevant risk factors for coronary heart disease, risk perception is likely to imply a personal consideration of the same risk factors in themselves.

Optimising import risk mitigation: anticipating the unintended consequences and competing risks of informal trade.

PubMed

Hueston, W; Travis, D; van Klink, E

2011-04-01

The effectiveness of risk mitigation may be compromised by informal trade, including illegal activities, parallel markets and extra-legal activities. While no regulatory system is 100% effective in eliminating the risk of disease transmission through animal and animal product trade, extreme risk aversion in formal import health regulations may increase informal trade, with the unintended consequence of creating additional risks outside regulatory purview. Optimal risk mitigation on a national scale requires scientifically sound yet flexible mitigation strategies that can address the competing risks of formal and informal trade. More robust risk analysis and creative engagement of nontraditional partners provide avenues for addressing informal trade.

Validation of the Wound, Ischemia, foot Infection (WIfI) classification system in nondiabetic patients treated by endovascular means for critical limb ischemia.

PubMed

Beropoulis, Efthymios; Stavroulakis, Konstantinos; Schwindt, Arne; Stachmann, Arne; Torsello, Giovanni; Bisdas, Theodosios

2016-07-01

The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Guidelines Committee developed the Wound, Ischemia, foot Infection (WIfI) a classification system to predict the amputation risk in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI). A number of published studies have already evaluated its prognostic value. However, most of the included patients were diabetic, and the validation was done independent of the revascularization procedure. This single-center study evaluated the prognostic value of WIfI stages in nondiabetic patients treated by endovascular means. A retrospective analysis was performed of prospectively collected data of nondiabetic patients treated by endovascular means between January 2013 and September 2014. All patients were classified according to their wound status, ischemia index, and extent of foot infection to four classes: very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, and high risk. Comorbidities and vascular lesions for each group were analyzed. The prognostic value of WIfI was analyzed based on the amputation-free survival, overall survival rate, and freedom from amputation at 12 months. Data from 302 CLI patients treated in the study period were reviewed. A total of 219 patients (73%) underwent an endovascular intervention, and among them, 126 nondiabetic patients (58%) were enrolled in this study. Most patients were classified as low risk (33%), and the prevalence of very low-risk, moderate-risk, and very high-risk patients was 23%, 23%, and 21%, respectively. The modified Edifoligide for the Prevention of Infrainguinal Vein Graft Failure (PREVENT III) score was statistically significantly higher in the high-risk group (5.2 ± 2.4) than in the very low-risk, low-risk, and moderate-risk groups (4.3 ± 2.5, 3.5 ± 2.3, 4.5 ± 2.2, respectively; P = .048). One major amputation (1%) was performed during the hospital stay in a high-risk patient. Mean follow-up was 14 ± 8 months. The amputation-free survival at 12 months was 87%, 81%, 81%, and 62%, in the very low-risk, low-risk, moderate risk, and very high-risk groups, respectively (P = .106). The difference was statistically significant between the very low-risk and high-risk groups (hazard ratio, 3.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-10.3; P = .029). A similar trend was also observed for 1-year survival between the very low-risk and the high-risk groups (87%, 84%, 81%, 65%; P = .166). The amputation rate during the follow-up time was 0%, 2% (n = 6), 3% (n = 5), and 12% (n = 9) for the very low-risk, low-risk, moderate-risk, and very high-risk groups, respectively (P = .033). The WIfI classification system predicted the amputation risk and survival in this highly selected group of nondiabetic CLI patients treated by endovascular means, with a statistically significant difference between very low-risk and high-risk patients already at 1 year. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

I'm feeling lucky: the relationship between affect and risk-seeking in the framing effect.

PubMed

Cheung, Elaine; Mikels, Joseph A

2011-08-01

Engagement in risky behavior has traditionally been attributed to an underestimation of the associated risks, but recent perspectives suggest that affective reactions toward a risky option may better explain risk-seeking than risk perception. However, the precise relationship between emotion and risk-seeking remains unclear. The current set of studies elucidates the relationship between emotion and risk-seeking in risky choice framing, using a gambling task. In Study 1, reliance on emotion was related to risk-seeking, but goals to regulate emotion mitigated these effects. In Study 2, positive affect was associated with risk-seeking in loss frames, but unrelated to risk aversion in gain frames. Collectively, these findings indicate a general role for emotion reliance on risk-seeking and a specific role of positive affect on risk-seeking in the loss trials of the framing effect. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

2018-01-01

The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

Catalogue of Risks: Natural, Technical, Social and Health Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebi, Kristie L.

2009-01-01

Financial, geophysical, and terrorist-related disasters have been headline news in the past few months. As amply demonstrated on a regular basis, the recognition and evaluation of risks are skills that could be more widespread. As such, Proske's Catalogue of Risks is timely and of potential interest. The book is a revised and expanded version of an earlier German publication that aims to provide an encyclopedic discussion of issues related to risks and disasters, with a goal of facilitating an understanding of the components and assessment of risk. The book includes chapters that discuss the difficulty of coming to a consensus on a definition of risk, a comprehensive range of risks and disasters, objective risk measures, subjective risk judgment, quality of life measures, and legal aspects of risk. The book ends with an example of applying the concepts discussed to ship impacts against bridges.

RISK CORRIDORS AND REINSURANCE IN HEALTH INSURANCE MARKETPLACES

PubMed Central

LAYTON, TIMOTHY J.; MCGUIRE, THOMAS G.; SINAIKO, ANNA D.

2016-01-01

Health Insurance Marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act implement reinsurance and risk corridors. Reinsurance limits insurer costs associated with specific individuals, while risk corridors protect against aggregate losses. Both tighten the insurer’s distribution of expected costs. This paper compares the economic costs and consequences of reinsurance and risk corridors. We simulate the insurer’s cost distribution under reinsurance and risk corridors using data for a group of individuals likely to enroll in Marketplace plans from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We compare reinsurance and risk corridors in terms of risk reduction and incentives for cost containment. We find that reinsurance and one-sided risk corridors achieve comparable levels of risk reduction for a given level of incentives. We also find that the policies being implemented in the Marketplaces (a mix of reinsurance and two-sided risk corridor policies) substantially limit insurer risk but perform similarly to a simpler stand-alone reinsurance policy. PMID:26973861

The development of mountain risk governance: challenges for application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Link, S.; Stötter, J.

2015-01-01

The complexity the management of mountain risks in the Alps has considerably increased since its institutionalisation in the late nineteenth century. In the history of approaches to dealing with mountain risks four successive paradigms can be distinguished on the basis of key indicators such as guiding principles, characteristic elements and typical instruments: "hazard protection", "hazard management", "risk management", and "risk governance". In this contribution, special attention is paid to the development of hazard zone planning and the growing importance of communication and participation over the course of this transformation. At present, the risk management paradigm has reached maturity. In the Alps, risk governance frameworks are not yet applied to risks from natural hazards. Based on a historical analysis, the suitability and applicability of general risk governance frameworks in the context of mountain risks are discussed. Necessary adaptations (e.g., in administration, educational, and legal structures) are proposed for the upcoming transformation towards mountain risk governance.

Social comparison framing in health news and its effect on perceptions of group risk.

PubMed

Bigman, Cabral A

2014-01-01

News about health disparities often compares health risks faced by different demographic groups. Does this social comparison produce a contrast effect? It was hypothesized that when two racial groups are compared, people would perceive the relatively more at-risk group to be more, and the less at-risk group to be less, at-risk than if the same risk information was presented without the comparative reference group. Three experiments with Black and White respondents tested effects of intergroup social comparison framing (SCF) on perceptions of risk for sexually transmitted infections and skin cancer. SCF (including one White and two Black disparity frames) did not raise respondents' perceived risk regarding the more at-risk racial group, but consistently lowered respondents' risk ratings for the less at-risk racial group. The finding that the same statistic was perceived differently in comparative and noncomparative contexts underscores the importance of considering effects of communication about disparities.

The Influence Factors and Mechanism of Societal Risk Perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Rui; Shi, Kan; Li, Shu

Risk perception is one of important subjects in management psychology and cognitive psychology. It is of great value in the theory and practice to investigate the societal hazards that the public cares a lot especially in Socio-economic transition period. A survey including 30 hazards and 6 risk attributes was designed and distributed to about 2, 485 residents of 8 districts, Beijing. The major findings are listed as following: Firstly, a scale of societal risk perception was designed and 2 factors were identified (Dread Risk & Unknown Risk). Secondly, structural equation model was used to analyze the influence factors and mechanism of societal risk perception. Risk preference, government support and social justice could influence societal risk perception directly. Government support fully moderated the relationship between government trust and societal risk perception. Societal risk perception influenced life satisfaction, public policy preferences and social development belief.

Documentation of violence risk information in psychiatric hospital patient charts: an empirical examination.

PubMed

Elbogen, Eric B; Tomkins, Alan J; Pothuloori, Antara P; Scalora, Mario J

2003-01-01

Studies have identified risk factors that show a strong association with violent behavior in psychiatric populations. Yet, little research has been conducted on the documentation of violence risk information in actual clinical practice, despite the relevance of such documentation to risk assessment liability and to conducting effective risk management. In this study, the documentation of cues of risk for violence were examined in psychiatric settings. Patient charts (n = 283) in four psychiatric settings were reviewed for documentation of violence risk information summarized in the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. The results revealed that particular patient and institutional variables influenced documentation practices. The presence of personality disorder, for example, predicted greater documentation of cues of violence risk, regardless of clinical setting. These findings have medicolegal implications for risk assessment liability and clinical implications for optimizing risk management in psychiatric practice.

Effects of baseline risk information on social and individual choices.

PubMed

Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Nexøe, Jørgen; Nielsen, Jesper Bo

2002-01-01

This article analyzes preferences for risk reductions in the context of individual and societal decision making. The effect of information on baseline risk is analyzed in both contexts. The results indicate that if individuals are to imagine that they suffer from 1 low-risk and 1 high-risk ailment, and are offered a specified identical absolute risk reduction, a majority will ceteris paribus opt for treatment of the low-risk ailment. A different preference structure is elicited when priority questions are framed as social choices. Here, a majority will prefer to treat the high-risk group of patients. The preference reversal demonstrates the extent to which baseline risk information can influence preferences in different choice settings. It is argued that presentation of baseline risk information may induce framing effects that lead to nonoptimal resource allocations. A solution to this problem may be to not present group-specific baseline risk information when eliciting preferences.

Risk-taking orientation and injury among youth workers: examining the social influence of supervisors, coworkers, and parents.

PubMed

Westaby, James D; Lowe, J Krister

2005-09-01

Despite youths' susceptibility to social influence, little research has examined the extent to which social factors impact youths' risk-taking orientation and injury at work. Drawing on social influence and behavioral intention theories, this study hypothesized that perceived supervisory influence, coworker risk taking, and parental risk taking serve as key exogenous variables of risk-taking orientation at work. Risk-taking orientation was further hypothesized to serve as a direct predictor and full mediator of work injury. The effect of parental risk taking was also hypothesized to be mediated through global risk taking, which in turn was posited to predict risk-taking orientation at work. Longitudinal results from 2,542 adolescents working across a wide spectrum of jobs supported hypothesized linkages, although there was some evidence of partially mediated mechanisms. Coworker risk taking was a relatively strong predictor of youths' risk-taking orientation at work. Copyright 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

Risk perception and communication: lessons for the food and food packaging industry.

PubMed

Renn, O

2005-10-01

Health risks are front-page news. Be it bovine spongiform encephalitis (BSE), surface ozone, or radiation from transmitter stations or mobile phones, the popular press puts out a constant stream of risk warnings and sensational reports about potential health threats. This paper examines how the general public perceives and assesses such information when it comes to food and food packaging risks. In the first part, the basic components of food risks are discussed and then compared with the perceptions of these risks. The main emphasis is on the risks from food packaging. The term 'perception' as used in cognitive psychology applies to the mental processes through which a person takes in, deals with and assesses information from the environment (physical and communicative) via the senses. The last part of the paper deals with the consequences of risk assessment and risk perception for risk management and risk communication.

The Association of Employee Engagement at Work With Health Risks and Presenteeism.

PubMed

Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Li, Xingquan; Schultz, Alyssa B

2017-10-01

Employee engagement is a key factor in work performance and employee retention. The current study seeks to examine the relationship between employee engagement and health risks and productivity. In 2012, employees of a global financial services corporation participated in a health risk appraisal (HRA) which measured employee engagement, health risks, and on-the-job productivity loss (presenteeism). Three engagement categories were created. The highest engaged employees had significantly fewer health risk factors (69.7% overall low-risk status; 1.91 average health risks) and significantly less presenteeism (7.7%) than the mid engagement (67.9% low-risk, 1.98 risks, 9.2% presenteeism) and worst engagement (55.0% low-risk, 2.53 risks, 14.0% presenteeism) groups. Work engagement appears to be good for both the organization and the individual. Organizations may wish to make use of strategies which increase employee engagement.

Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

2017-03-01

Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

Mammographic density, breast cancer risk and risk prediction

PubMed Central

Vachon, Celine M; van Gils, Carla H; Sellers, Thomas A; Ghosh, Karthik; Pruthi, Sandhya; Brandt, Kathleen R; Pankratz, V Shane

2007-01-01

In this review, we examine the evidence for mammographic density as an independent risk factor for breast cancer, describe the risk prediction models that have incorporated density, and discuss the current and future implications of using mammographic density in clinical practice. Mammographic density is a consistent and strong risk factor for breast cancer in several populations and across age at mammogram. Recently, this risk factor has been added to existing breast cancer risk prediction models, increasing the discriminatory accuracy with its inclusion, albeit slightly. With validation, these models may replace the existing Gail model for clinical risk assessment. However, absolute risk estimates resulting from these improved models are still limited in their ability to characterize an individual's probability of developing cancer. Promising new measures of mammographic density, including volumetric density, which can be standardized using full-field digital mammography, will likely result in a stronger risk factor and improve accuracy of risk prediction models. PMID:18190724

9th Annual CMMI Technology Conference and User Group-Tuesday

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-19

evaluating and quantifying risk likelihood and severity risks. Step 4 Project defines thresholds for each risk category. Step 5 Project defines bounds on the...defines consistent criteria for evaluating and quantifying risk likelihood and severity risks in the Risk Management Plan. Step 4 Project defines

Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coffee, Brian

Intro to Foreign Exchange: Volatility Markets & Trading. Applications of physics and finance; Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options; Measures of Market Risk; Implied Volatility; FX Risk Reversals; FX Strangles; Valuation and Risk Calculations; Risk Management; Market Trading Strategies.

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

ScienceCinema

Coffee, Brian

2018-05-14

Intro to Foreign Exchange: Volatility Markets & Trading. Applications of physics and finance; Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options; Measures of Market Risk; Implied Volatility; FX Risk Reversals; FX Strangles; Valuation and Risk Calculations; Risk Management; Market Trading Strategies.

Hazard perception, risk perception, and the need for decontamination by residents exposed to soil pollution: the role of sustainability and the limits of expert knowledge.

PubMed

Vandermoere, Frédéric

2008-04-01

This case study examines the hazard and risk perception and the need for decontamination according to people exposed to soil pollution. Using an ecological-symbolic approach (ESA), a multidisciplinary model is developed that draws upon psychological and sociological perspectives on risk perception and includes ecological variables by using data from experts' risk assessments. The results show that hazard perception is best predicted by objective knowledge, subjective knowledge, estimated knowledge of experts, and the assessed risks. However, experts' risk assessments induce an increase in hazard perception only when residents know the urgency of decontamination. Risk perception is best predicted by trust in the risk management. Additionally, need for decontamination relates to hazard perception, risk perception, estimated knowledge of experts, and thoughts about sustainability. In contrast to the knowledge deficit model, objective and subjective knowledge did not significantly relate to risk perception and need for decontamination. The results suggest that residents can make a distinction between hazards in terms of the seriousness of contamination on the one hand, and human health risks on the other hand. Moreover, next to the importance of social determinants of environmental risk perception, this study shows that the output of experts' risk assessments-or the objective risks-can create a hazard awareness rather than an alarming risk consciousness, despite residents' distrust of scientific knowledge.

Risk-taking, peer-influence and child maltreatment: a neurocognitive investigation

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Ferdinand; Puetz, Vanessa B; Viding, Essi; Sethi, Arjun; Palmer, Amy

2018-01-01

Abstract Maltreatment is associated with increased risk of a range of psychiatric disorders, many of which are characterized by altered risk-taking propensity. Currently, little is known about the neural correlates of risk-taking in children exposed to maltreatment, nor whether their risk-taking is atypically modulated by peer influence. Seventy-five 10- to 14-year-old children [maltreated (MT) group: N = 41; non-maltreated Group (NMT): N = 34] performed a Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), under three different peer influence conditions: while alone, while being observed by a peer and while being encouraged by a peer to take risks. The MT group engaged in less risk-taking irrespective of peer influence. There was no differential effect of peer influence on risk-taking behaviour across groups. At the neural level, the right anterior insula (rAI) exhibited altered risk sensitivity across conditions in the MT group. Across groups and conditions, rAI risk sensitivity was negatively associated with risk-taking and within the MT group greater rAI risk sensitivity was related to more anxiety symptoms. These findings suggest that children with a history of maltreatment show reduced risk-taking but typical responses to peer influence. Abnormal rAI functioning contributes to the pattern of reduced risk-taking and may predispose children exposed to maltreatment to develop future psychopathology. PMID:29069467

Risk-taking, peer-influence and child maltreatment: a neurocognitive investigation.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Ferdinand; Puetz, Vanessa B; Viding, Essi; Sethi, Arjun; Palmer, Amy; McCrory, Eamon J

2018-01-01

Maltreatment is associated with increased risk of a range of psychiatric disorders, many of which are characterized by altered risk-taking propensity. Currently, little is known about the neural correlates of risk-taking in children exposed to maltreatment, nor whether their risk-taking is atypically modulated by peer influence. Seventy-five 10- to 14-year-old children [maltreated (MT) group: N = 41; non-maltreated Group (NMT): N = 34] performed a Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), under three different peer influence conditions: while alone, while being observed by a peer and while being encouraged by a peer to take risks. The MT group engaged in less risk-taking irrespective of peer influence. There was no differential effect of peer influence on risk-taking behaviour across groups. At the neural level, the right anterior insula (rAI) exhibited altered risk sensitivity across conditions in the MT group. Across groups and conditions, rAI risk sensitivity was negatively associated with risk-taking and within the MT group greater rAI risk sensitivity was related to more anxiety symptoms. These findings suggest that children with a history of maltreatment show reduced risk-taking but typical responses to peer influence. Abnormal rAI functioning contributes to the pattern of reduced risk-taking and may predispose children exposed to maltreatment to develop future psychopathology. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

Defining subgroups of low socioeconomic status women at risk for depressive symptoms: the importance of perceived stress and cumulative risks.

PubMed

van der Waerden, Judith E B; Hoefnagels, Cees; Hosman, Clemens M H; Jansen, Maria W J

2014-12-01

Most disadvantaged women are exposed to risk factors for depression, but not all necessarily have an identical risk for this mental health problem. A better prediction of which low socioeconomic status (SES) women are most at risk for depressive symptoms can help target preventive interventions at high-risk subgroups most in need of support. Exploring which demographic, socioeconomic and psychological risk factors are associated with self-reported depressive symptoms in a sample of low-SES women and whether the number of risk factors might expose them to an accumulated risk. Between April 2005 and November 2007, 519 disadvantaged women from urban neighbourhoods in Maastricht, a southern Dutch city, participated in a cross-sectional survey on stress and depressive symptoms. Lower education levels, no current employment and lower net monthly family incomes were socioeconomic risk factors associated with higher scores for depressive symptoms. The psychological risk factor 'perceived stress' had the highest explained variance and was most strongly associated with depressive symptoms. Women exposed to multiple risk factors across domains had a cumulated risk for depressive symptomatology. Low-SES women who seem most eligible for targeted preventive action are those with cumulative risks. Depression prevention strategies for this population may benefit from focusing on perceived stress since this is an important modifiable risk factor. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

PubMed

Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2017-07-01

We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mammographic breast density as a risk factor for breast cancer: awareness in a recently screened clinical sample.

PubMed

O'Neill, Suzanne C; Leventhal, Kara Grace; Scarles, Marie; Evans, Chalanda N; Makariou, Erini; Pien, Edward; Willey, Shawna

2014-01-01

Breast density is an established, independent risk factor for breast cancer. Despite this, density has not been included in standard risk models or routinely disclosed to patients. However, this is changing in the face of legal mandates and advocacy efforts. Little information exists regarding women's awareness of density as a risk factor, their personal risk, and risk management options. We assessed awareness of density as a risk factor and whether sociodemographic variables, breast cancer risk factors. and perceived breast cancer risk were associated with awareness in 344 women with a recent screening mammogram at a tertiary care center. Overall, 62% of women had heard about density as a risk factor and 33% had spoken to a provider about breast density. Of the sample, 18% reported that their provider indicated that they had high breast density. Awareness of density as a risk factor was greater among White women and those with other breast cancer risk factors. Our results suggest that although a growing number of women are aware of breast density as a risk factor, this awareness varies. Growing mandates for disclosure suggest the need for patient education interventions for women at increased risk for the disease and to ensure all women are equally aware of their risks. Copyright © 2014 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-30

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

What do men understand about lifetime risk following genetic testing? The effect of context and numeracy.

PubMed

Rolison, Jonathan J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Miron-Shatz, Talya

2012-07-01

Genetic testing for gene mutations associated with specific cancers provides an opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention (Smith, Cokkinides, & Brawley, 2008). Lifetime risk estimates provided by genetic testing refer to the risk of developing a specific disease within one's lifetime, and evidence suggests that this is important for the medical choices people make, as well as their future family and financial plans. The present studies tested whether adult men understand the lifetime risks of prostate cancer informed by genetic testing. In 2 experiments, adult men were asked to interpret the lifetime risk information provided in statements about risks of prostate cancer. Statement format was manipulated such that the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred to an absolute risk of cancer in experiment 1 and a relative risk in experiment 2. Experiment 1 revealed that few men correctly interpreted the lifetime risks of cancer when these refer to an absolute risk of cancer, and numeracy levels positively predicted correct responding. The proportion of correct responses was greatly improved in experiment 2 when the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred instead to a relative rather than an absolute risk, and numeracy levels were less involved. Understanding of lifetime risk information is often poor because individuals incorrectly believe that these refer to relative rather than absolute risks of cancer.

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Risk Factors for and Management of MPN-Associated Bleeding and Thrombosis.

PubMed

Martin, Karlyn

2017-10-01

The Philadelphia chromosome-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) are characterized by both thrombotic and bleeding complications. The purpose of this review is to describe the risk factors associated with bleeding and thrombosis in MPN, as well as to review prevention strategies and management of these complications. Well-described risk factors for thrombotic complications include older age and history of prior thrombosis, along with traditional cardiovascular and venous thromboembolic risk factors. More recently, JAK2 V617F mutation has been found to carry an increased risk of thrombotic complications, whereas CALR has a lower risk than JAK2 mutation. Factors associated with an increased risk of bleeding in MPN include a prior history of bleeding, acquired von Willebrand syndrome, and primary myelofibrosis. Recent findings suggest that thrombocytosis carries a higher risk of bleeding than thrombosis in MPN, and aspirin may exacerbate this risk of bleeding, particularly in CALR-mutated ET. Much of the management of MPN focuses on predicting risk of bleeding and thrombosis and initiating prophylaxis to prevent complications in those at high risk of thrombosis. Emerging evidence suggests that sub-populations may have bleeding risk that outweighs thrombotic risk, particularly in setting of antiplatelet therapy. Future work is needed to better characterize this balance. At present, a thorough assessment of the risks of bleeding and thrombosis should be undertaken for each patient, and herein, we review risk factors for and management of these complications.

Serious and actionable risks, plus disclosure: Investigating an alternative approach for presenting risk information in prescription drug television advertisements.

PubMed

Betts, Kevin R; Boudewyns, Vanessa; Aikin, Kathryn J; Squire, Claudia; Dolina, Suzanne; Hayes, Jennifer J; Southwell, Brian G

2017-08-02

Broadcast direct-to-consumer (DTC) prescription drug ads that present product claims are required to also present the product's major risks. Debate exists regarding how much information should be included in these major risk statements. Some argue that such statements expose people to unnecessary amounts of information, while others argue that they leave out important information. Examine the impact of type of risk statement (unedited versus serious and actionable risks only) and a disclosure indicating that not all risks are presented on consumers' ability to remember the important risks and benefits of a drug following exposure to a DTC television advertisement (ad). Risk and benefit perceptions, ad-prompted actions, recognition of the disclosure statement, and evaluations of both the disclosure and risk statement were also examined. A web-based experiment was conducted in which US adults who self-reported as having depression (N = 500), insomnia (N = 500), or high cholesterol (N = 500) were randomly assigned to view one of four versions of the television ad, and then complete a questionnaire. The type of risk statement had a significant effect on risk recall and recognition, benefit recognition, perceived risk severity (depression condition only), and perceived benefit magnitude (high cholesterol condition only). Disclosure recognition (using bias-corrected scores) ranged from 63% to 70% across the three illness samples. The revised risk statement improved overall processing of the television ad, as evidenced by improved risk recall and recognition and improved benefit recognition. Further, the presence of the disclosure did not adversely affect consumers' processing of drug risk and benefit information. Therefore, limiting the risks presented in DTC television ads and including a disclosure alerting consumers that not all risks are presented may be an effective strategy for communicating product risks. Published by Elsevier Inc.

RISK D/C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dias, W. C.

1994-01-01

RISK D/C is a prototype program which attempts to do program risk modeling for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in the Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment is made with respect to risk events, their probabilities, and the severities of potential results. The program allows risk mitigation strategies to be proposed for an exploration program architecture and to be ranked with respect to their effectiveness. RISK D/C allows for the fact that risk assessment in early planning phases is subjective. Although specific to the SEI in its present form, RISK D/C can be used as a framework for developing a risk assessment program for other specific uses. RISK D/C is organized into files, or stacks, of information, including the architecture, the hazard, and the risk event stacks. Although predefined, all stacks can be upgraded by a user. The architecture stack contains information concerning the general program alternatives, which are subsequently broken down into waypoints, missions, and mission phases. The hazard stack includes any background condition which could result in a risk event. A risk event is anything unfavorable that could happen during the course of a specific point within an architecture, and the risk event stack provides the probabilities, consequences, severities, and any mitigation strategies which could be used to reduce the risk of the event, and how much the risk is reduced. RISK D/C was developed for Macintosh series computers. It requires HyperCard 2.0 or later, as well as 2Mb of RAM and System 6.0.8 or later. A Macintosh II series computer is recommended due to speed concerns. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. RISK D/C was developed in 1991 and is a copyrighted work with all copyright vested in NASA. Macintosh and HyperCard are trademarks of Apple Computer, Inc.

How are lung cancer risk perceptions and cigarette smoking related?-testing an accuracy hypothesis.

PubMed

Chen, Lei-Shih; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Tseng, Tung-Sung; Zhao, Shixi

2016-10-01

Subjective risk perception is an important theoretical construct in the field of cancer prevention and control. Although the relationship between subjective risk perception and health behaviors has been widely studied in many health contexts, the causalities and associations between the risk perception of developing lung cancer and cigarette smoking have been inconsistently reported among studies. Such inconsistency may be from discrepancies between study designs (cross-sectional versus longitudinal designs) and the three hypotheses (i.e., the behavior motivation hypothesis, the risk reappraisals hypothesis, and the accuracy hypothesis) testing different underlying associations between risk perception and cigarette-smoking behaviors. To clarify this issue, as an initial step, we examined the association between absolute and relative risk perceptions of developing lung cancer and cigarette-smoking behaviors among a large, national representative sample of 1,680 U.S. adults by testing an accuracy hypothesis (i.e., people who smoke accurately perceived a higher risk of developing lung cancer). Data from the U.S. Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) were analyzed using logistic regression and multivariate linear regression to examine the associations between risk perception and cigarette-smoking behaviors among 1,680 U.S. adults. Findings from this cross-sectional survey suggest that absolute and relative risk perceptions were positively and significantly correlated with having smoked >100 cigarettes during lifetime and the frequency of cigarette smoking. Only absolute risk perception was significantly associated with the number of cigarettes smoked per day among current smokers. Because both absolute and relative risk perceptions are positively related to most cigarette-smoking behaviors, this study supports the accuracy hypothesis. Moreover, absolute risk perception might be a more sensitive measurement than relative risk perception for perceived lung cancer risk. Longitudinal research is needed in the future to investigate other types of risk perception-risk behavior hypotheses-the behavior motivation and the risk reappraisals hypotheses-among nationally representative samples to further examine the causations between risk perception of obtaining lung cancer and smoking behaviors.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks.

Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk.

PubMed

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2015-01-01

Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998-2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated.

Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk

PubMed Central

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2015-01-01

Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998–2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated. PMID:26496190

The 2006 William Feinberg lecture: shifting the paradigm from stroke to global vascular risk estimation.

PubMed

Sacco, Ralph L

2007-06-01

By the year 2010, it is estimated that 18.1 million people worldwide will die annually because of cardiovascular diseases and stroke. "Global vascular risk" more broadly includes the multiple overlapping disease silos of stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and vascular death. Estimation of global vascular risk requires consideration of a variety of variables including demographics, environmental behaviors, and risk factors. Data from multiple studies suggest continuous linear relationships between the physiological vascular risk modulators of blood pressure, lipids, and blood glucose rather than treating these conditions as categorical risk factors. Constellations of risk factors may be more relevant than individual categorical components. Exciting work with novel risk factors may also have predictive value in estimates of global vascular risk. Advances in imaging have led to the measurement of subclinical conditions such as carotid intima-media thickness and subclinical brain conditions such as white matter hyperintensities and silent infarcts. These subclinical measurements may be intermediate stages in the transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic vascular events, appear to be associated with the fundamental vascular risk factors, and represent opportunities to more precisely quantitate disease progression. The expansion of studies in molecular epidemiology and detection of genetic markers underlying vascular risks also promises to extend our precision of global vascular risk estimation. Global vascular risk estimation will require quantitative methods that bundle these multi-dimensional data into more precise estimates of future risk. The power of genetic information coupled with data on demographics, risk-inducing behaviors, vascular risk modulators, biomarkers, and measures of subclinical conditions should provide the most realistic approximation of an individual's future global vascular risk. The ultimate public health benefit, however, will depend on not only identification of global vascular risk but also the realization that we can modify this risk and prove the prediction models wrong.

The Surgical Mortality Probability Model: derivation and validation of a simple risk prediction rule for noncardiac surgery.

PubMed

Glance, Laurent G; Lustik, Stewart J; Hannan, Edward L; Osler, Turner M; Mukamel, Dana B; Qian, Feng; Dick, Andrew W

2012-04-01

To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate risk information to patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," and that can be used by surgeons and hospitals to internally audit their quality of care. Clinicians rely on the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to quantify the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Because mortality from noncardiac causes accounts for many perioperative deaths, there is also a need for a simple bedside risk index to predict 30-day all-cause mortality after noncardiac surgery. Retrospective cohort study of 298,772 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery during 2005 to 2007 using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) 30-day mortality risk index was derived empirically and includes three risk factors: ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency status, and surgery risk class. Patients with ASA physical status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, or 6 points, respectively; intermediate- or high-risk procedures were assigned 1 or 2 points, respectively; and emergency procedures were assigned 1 point. Patients with risk scores less than 5 had a predicted risk of mortality less than 0.50%, whereas patients with a risk score of 5 to 6 had a risk of mortality between 1.5% and 4.0%. Patients with a risk score greater than 6 had risk of mortality more than 10%. S-MPM exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) in the validation data set. Thirty-day mortality after noncardiac surgery can be accurately predicted using a simple and accurate risk score based on information readily available at the bedside. This risk index may play a useful role in facilitating shared decision making, developing and implementing risk-reduction strategies, and guiding quality improvement efforts.

Calculated and perceived cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic subjects submitted to a routine medical evaluation: The perception gap.

PubMed

Katz, Marcelo; Laurinavicius, Antonio G; Franco, Fabio G M; Conceicao, Raquel D; Carvalho, Jose A M; Pesaro, Antonio E P; Wajngarten, Mauricio; Santos, Raul D

2015-08-01

Poor adherence to medical treatment represents a major health problem. A subject's misperception of his own cardiovascular risk has been indicated as a key driver for low compliance with preventive measures. This study analysed the relationship between objectively calculated short- and long-term cardiovascular risk and its subjective perception. Cross-sectional study in asymptomatic Brazilian subjects. Individuals (N = 6544, mean age 49.1 ± 7 years, 22.2% female) who underwent a routine mandatory health evaluation were studied. A questionnaire in which each individual rated his own cardiovascular risk as low, intermediate or high according to his own perception was used. The 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular risk were calculated respectively using the Framingham risk (FRS) and Lifetime risk (LRS) scores. Individuals were classified as hypo-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk lower than estimated risk), normo-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk coincident with estimated risk) and hyper-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk higher than estimated risk). Cardiovascular risk, using the FRS, was low in 77.9% (N = 5071), intermediate in 14.4% (N = 939) and high in 7.7% (N = 499) of subjects. Cardiovascular risk, using the LRS, was low in 7.6% (N = 492), intermediate in 43.1% (N = 2787) and high in 49.3% (N = 3184) of the study population. The prevalence of normo-perceivers was 57.6% using the FRS and only 20.6% using the LRS. Using the LRS, 72.3% of the intermediate and 91.2% of the high-risk subjects were hypo-perceivers. In a large sample of asymptomatic individuals, there was a gap between calculated and perceived cardiovascular risk. Using a long-term risk score, most of the intermediate- and high-risk subjects were hypo-perceivers. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Risk control and the minimum significant risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

1996-06-01

Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limitmore » to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented.« less

42 CFR 423.336 - Risk-sharing arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... payments to a Part D sponsor subject to risk—(1) Adjusted allowable risk corridor costs. For purposes of this paragraph, the term adjusted allowable risk corridor costs means— (i) The allowable risk corridor... coverage year. (2) Establishment of risk corridors. (i) Risk corridors. For each year, CMS establishes a...

13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating...

14 CFR 417.205 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to... isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public. (1) Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public...

14 CFR 417.205 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to... isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public. (1) Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public...

14 CFR 417.205 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to... isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public. (1) Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public...

14 CFR 417.205 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to... isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public. (1) Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may... submission of risk adjustment data. Risk adjustment factors for each payment year are based on risk... factors for affected individuals to determine if adjustments to payments are necessary. Risk adjustment...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may... submission of risk adjustment data. Risk adjustment factors for each payment year are based on risk... factors for affected individuals to determine if adjustments to payments are necessary. Risk adjustment...

Risk Evaluation, Driving, and Adolescents: A Typology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harre, Niki

2000-01-01

Presents a typology outlining five psychological risk states that may be experienced by adolescent drivers. Identifies the habitually cautious driving and active risk avoidance states as desirable from a traffic safety viewpoint. Identifies reduced risk perception, acceptance of risk at a cost, and risk seeking states as undesirable. Examines…

Using exposure bands for rapid decision making in the RISK21 tiered exposureassessment

EPA Science Inventory

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) project was initiated to address and catalyze improvements in human health risk assessment. RISK21 is a problem formulation-based conceptual roadmap and risk matrix visualizat...

Risk Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-02

actively attack the risks, they will actively attack you.” -Tom Gib Why do Risk Management? 8 “The first step in the risk management process is to...opportunities to manage and improve our chances of success. - Roger Vanscoy “If you do not actively attack the risks, they will actively attack ...our risks provides opportunities to manage and improve our chances of success. - Roger Vanscoy “If you do not actively attack the risks, they will

Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

TITLE: Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Fengshan Liu...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations 5b. GRANT NUMBER...identifying the prevalence of women with incomplete visualization of the breast . We developed a code to estimate the breast cancer risks using the

Risk in daily newspaper coverage of red tide blooms in Southwest Florida.

PubMed

Li, Zongchao; Garrison, Bruce; Ullmann, Steven G; Kirkpatrick, Barbara; Fleming, Lora E; Hoagland, Porter

This study investigated newspaper coverage of Florida red tide blooms in four metropolitan areas of Southwest Florida during a 25-year period, 1987-2012. We focused on how journalists framed red tide stories with respect to environmental risk, health risk, and economic risk. We determined risk to be a key factor in this news coverage, being an aspect of coverage of red tide itself in terms of environmental risk, tourism risk, and public health risk. The study found that red tide news coverage is most often framed as an environmental story.

Risk Management in EVA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Jonathan; Lutomski, M.

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the use of risk management in Extravehicular Activities (EVA). The contents include: 1) EVA Office at NASA - JSC; 2) EVA Project Risk Management: Why and When; 3) EVA Office Risk Management: How; 4) Criteria for Closing a Risk; 5) Criteria for Accepting a Risk; 6) ISS IRMA Reference Card Data Entry Requirement s; 7) XA/ EVA Office Risk Activity Summary; 8) EVA Significant Change Summary; 9) Integrated Risk Management Application (XA) Matrix, March 31, 2004; 10) ISS Watch Item: 50XX Summary Report; and 11) EVA Project RM Usefulness

Customer-Specific Transaction Risk Management in E-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruch, Markus; Sackmann, Stefan

Increasing potential for turnover in e-commerce is inextricably linked with an increase in risk. Online retailers (e-tailers), aiming for a company-wide value orientation should manage this risk. However, current approaches to risk management either use average retail prices elevated by an overall risk premium or restrict the payment methods offered to customers. Thus, they neglect customer-specific value and risk attributes and leave turnover potentials unconsidered. To close this gap, an innovative valuation model is proposed in this contribution that integrates customer-specific risk and potential turnover. The approach presented evaluates different payment methods using their risk-turnover characteristic, provides a risk-adjusted decision basis for selecting payment methods and allows e-tailers to derive automated risk management decisions per customer and transaction without reducing turnover potential.

ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Paul W.

2008-01-01

ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

Mapping U.S. long-haul truck drivers' multiplex networks and risk topography in inner-city neighborhoods

PubMed Central

Apostolopoulos, Yorghos; Sönmez, Sevil; Lemke, Michael Kenneth; Rothenberg, Richard B.

2015-01-01

This article illustrates how urban inner-city trucking milieux may influence STI/BBI/HIV acquisition and transmission risks for U.S. long-haul truckers, as well as their social and risk relationships. Using mixed methods, we collected ethnoepidemiological and biological data from long-haul truck drivers and their risk contacts in inner-city trucking milieux in Atlanta, Georgia, United States. Key findings indicate that within the risk-endemic environment of distressed inner-city areas, diverse trucking risk milieux can amplify STI/BBI/HIV risk for multiplex networks of truckers. Inner-city neighborhood location, short geographic distance among risk contacts, and trucker concurrency can potentially exacerbate transmission via bridging higher-risk individuals with lower-risk populations at disparate geographic and epidemiological locations. PMID:25863181

2014 Space Human Factors Engineering Standing Review Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, Susan

2014-01-01

The 2014 Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE) Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) participated in a WebEx/teleconference with members of the Space Human Factors and Habitability (SHFH) Element, representatives from the Human Research Program (HRP), the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI), and NASA Headquarters on November 17, 2014 (list of participants is in Section XI of this report). The SRP reviewed the updated research plans for the Risk of Incompatible Vehicle/Habitat Design (HAB Risk) and the Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies (Train Risk). The SRP also received a status update on the Risk of Inadequate Critical Task Design (Task Risk), the Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration (HARI Risk), and the Risk of Inadequate Human-Computer Interaction (HCI Risk).

Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.

PubMed

Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor

2012-08-01

Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

Bullying increased suicide risk: prospective study of Korean adolescents.

PubMed

Kim, Young Shin; Leventhal, Bennett L; Koh, Yun-Joo; Boyce, W Thomas

2009-01-01

This study examines the independent impact of bullying on suicide risk. Bullying was assessed by peer nomination in a prospective study of 1,655 7th and 8th grade Korean students, and suicide by youth self-report. Odds Ratios (ORs) of bullying for suicidal risks were computed, controlling for other suicide risk factors. Victim-Perpetrators and female Victims at baseline showed increased risk for persistent suicidality (OR: 2.4-9.8). Male Incident Victims exhibited increased risk for suicidal behaviors and ideations (OR = 4.4, 3.6). Female Persistent Perpetrators exhibited increased risks for suicidal behaviors; male Incident Perpetrators had increased risk for suicidal ideations (OR = 2.7, 2.3). Baseline-only male Victim-Perpetrators showed increased risk for suicidal ideations. (OR = 6.4). Bullying independently increased suicide risks.

Offenders' risk-taking attitude inside and outside the prison walls.

PubMed

Gummerum, Michaela; Hanoch, Yaniv; Rolison, Jonathan J

2014-10-01

It has long been assumed that risk taking is closely associated with criminal behavior. One reason for placing criminals behind bars--aside from punishment and protecting the public--is to prevent them from engaging in further risky criminal activities. Limited attention has been paid to whether being inside or outside prison affects offenders' risk-taking behaviors and attitudes. We compared risk-taking behaviors and attitudes in five risk domains (ethical, financial, health/safety, recreational, social) among 75 incarcerated offenders (i.e., offenders who are currently in prison) and 45 ex-offenders (i.e., offenders who have just been released from prison). Ex-offenders reported higher likelihood of engaging in risky behavior, driven largely by a willingness to take more risks in the recreational and ethical domains. Benefits attributed to risk taking as well as risk perception did not differ between incarcerated and ex-offenders, indicating that the opportunity to take risks might underlie behavioral risk intentions. Our results also indicate that risk-taking activities are better predicted by the expected benefits rather than by risk perception, aside from the health/safety domain. These results highlight the importance of studying the person and the environment and examining risk taking in a number of content domains. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Payne, Rupert A

2012-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is a major, growing, worldwide problem. It is important that individuals at risk of developing cardiovascular disease can be effectively identified and appropriately stratified according to risk. This review examines what we understand by the term risk, traditional and novel risk factors, clinical scoring systems, and the use of risk for informing prescribing decisions. Many different cardiovascular risk factors have been identified. Established, traditional factors such as ageing are powerful predictors of adverse outcome, and in the case of hypertension and dyslipidaemia are the major targets for therapeutic intervention. Numerous novel biomarkers have also been described, such as inflammatory and genetic markers. These have yet to be shown to be of value in improving risk prediction, but may represent potential therapeutic targets and facilitate more targeted use of existing therapies. Risk factors have been incorporated into several cardiovascular disease prediction algorithms, such as the Framingham equation, SCORE and QRISK. These have relatively poor predictive power, and uncertainties remain with regards to aspects such as choice of equation, different risk thresholds and the roles of relative risk, lifetime risk and reversible factors in identifying and treating at-risk individuals. Nonetheless, such scores provide objective and transparent means of quantifying risk and their integration into therapeutic guidelines enables equitable and cost-effective distribution of health service resources and improves the consistency and quality of clinical decision making. PMID:22348281

Relationship between risk classifications used to organize the demand for oral health in a small city of São Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Peres, João; Mendes, Karine Laura Cortellazzi; Wada, Ronaldo Seichi; Sousa, Maria da Luz Rosario de

2017-06-01

Oral health teams can work with both information of the people related to the family context as individual epidemiological through risk ratings, considering equity and service organization. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the association between tools that classify individual and family risk. The study group consisted of students from the age group of 5-6 years and 11-12 years who were classified regarding risk of caries and whether their parents had periodontal disease, in addition to the family risk. There was an association between the risk rating for decay in children (n = 128) and family risk classification with Coef C = 0.338 and p = 0.01, indicating that the higher the family's risk, the higher the risk of caries. Similarly, the association between the risk classification for periodontal disease in parents and family risk classification with Coef C = 0.5503 and p = 0.03 indicated that the higher the family risk, the higher the risk of periodontal disease. It can be concluded that the use of family risk rating tool is indicated as a possibility of ordering actions of the dental service, organizing their demand with greater equity, in this access door.

A randomized trial Examining The Impact Of Communicating Genetic And Lifestyle Risks For Obesity.

PubMed

Wang, Catharine; Gordon, Erynn S; Norkunas, Tricia; Wawak, Lisa; Liu, Ching-Ti; Winter, Michael; Kasper, Rachel S; Christman, Michael F; Green, Robert C; Bowen, Deborah J

2016-12-01

Genetic testing for obesity is available directly to consumers, yet little is understood about its behavioral impact and its added value to nongenetic risk communication efforts based on lifestyle factors. A randomized trial examined the short-term impact of providing personalized obesity risk information, using a 2 × 2 factorial design. Participants were recruited from the Coriell Personalized Medicine Collaborative (CPMC) and randomized to receive (1) no risk information (control), (2) genetic risk, (3) lifestyle risk, or (4) combined genetic/lifestyle risks. Baseline and 3-month follow-up survey data were collected. Analyses examined the impact of risk feedback on intentions to lose weight and self-reported weight. A total of 696 participants completed the study. A significant interaction effect was observed for genetic and lifestyle information on intent to lose weight (P = 0.0150). Those who received genetic risk alone had greater intentions at follow-up, compared with controls (P = 0.0034). The impact of receiving elevated risk information on intentions varied by source and combination of risks presented. Non-elevated genetic risk did not lower intentions. No group differences were observed for self-reported weight. Genetic risk information for obesity may add value to lifestyle risk information depending on the context in which it is presented. © 2016 The Obesity Society.

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

PubMed

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) Risk Management Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urban, Mary Elizabeth

Risk is a factor, element, constraint, or course of action that introduces an uncertainty of outcome that could impact project objectives. Risk is an inherent part of all activities, whether the activity is simple and small, or large and complex. Risk management is a process that identifies, evaluates, handles, and monitors risks that have the potential to affect project success. The risk management process spans the entire project, from its initiation to its successful completion and closeout, including both technical and programmatic (non-technical) risks. This Risk Management Plan (RMP) defines the process to be used for identifying, evaluating, handling, andmore » monitoring risks as part of the overall management of the Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) ‘Project’. Given the changing nature of the project environment, risk management is essentially an ongoing and iterative process, which applies the best efforts of a knowledgeable project staff to a suite of focused and prioritized concerns. The risk management process itself must be continually applied throughout the project life cycle. This document was prepared in accordance with DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, its associated guide for risk management DOE G 413.3-7, Risk Management Guide, and LANL ADPM AP-350-204, Risk and Opportunity Management.« less

Placement and Format of Risk Information on Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Websites.

PubMed

Sullivan, Helen W; O'Donoghue, Amie C; Rupert, Douglas J; Willoughby, Jessica Fitts; Aikin, Kathryn J

2017-02-01

We investigated whether the location and format of risk information on branded prescription drug websites influence consumers' knowledge and perceptions of the drug's risks. Participants (Internet panelists with high cholesterol [n = 2,609] or seasonal allergies [n = 2,637]) were randomly assigned to view a website promoting a fictitious prescription drug for their condition. The website presented risk information at the bottom of the homepage, or at the bottom of the homepage with a signal above indicating that the risk information was located below, or on a linked secondary page. We also varied the format of risk information (paragraph, checklist, bulleted list, highlighted box). Participants then answered questions on risk recall and perceptions. Participants recalled fewer drug risks when the risks were placed on a secondary page. The signal had little effect, and risk information format did not affect outcomes. The location of risk information on prescription drug websites can affect consumer knowledge of drug risks; however, signals and special formatting may not be necessary for websites to adequately inform consumers about drug risks. We recommend that prescription drug websites maintain risk information on their homepages to achieve "fair balance" as required by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Cardiovascular risk and blood pressure control in a Spanish hypertensive population attended in a Primary Care setting. Data from the PRESCAP 2006 study.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Roca, Gustavo C; Llisterri-Caro, Jose L; Barrios-Alonso, Vivencio; Alonso-Moreno, Francisco J; Lou-Arnal, Salvador; Prieto-Diaz, Miguel A; Sanchez-Ruiz, Tomas; Dura-Belinchon, Rafael; Santos-Rodriguez, Jose A; Divison-Garrote, Juan A; Gonzalez-Segura, Diego; Banegas-Banegas, Jose R

2009-01-01

To analyse the cardiovascular risk of a broad sample of hypertensive patients and to examine whether there are differences in blood pressure control and associated factors according to the different cardiovascular risk categories. A total of 10,520 patients > or = 18 years old were included (mean age 64.6+/-11.3 years; 53.7% women). In this cohort, 3.3% were average risk, 22.6% low added risk, 22.2% moderate added risk, 33.5% high added risk and 18.4% very high added risk. Blood pressure was controlled in 41.4% (95% CI 40.5-42.4) of the total population, in 91.7% of patients with low added risk, in 19.4% with moderate added risk, in 27.4% with high added risk and in 6.8% with very high added risk. Diabetes was the factor most strongly associated with poor blood pressure control in patients with high to very high added risk (OR=7.2; p<0.0001). More than half of the hypertensive patients treated in primary health care have a high or very high added cardiovascular risk. In these patients, blood pressure control is inadequate and diabetes is associated with a sevenfold increase in the likelihood of poor blood pressure control.

Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Ting-Rong; Chen, Wei-Jiong; Zeng, Xiang-Kun

2008-12-01

Quantified risk assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.

Food risk perceptions, gender, and individual differences in avoidance and approach motivation, intuitive and analytic thinking styles, and anxiety.

PubMed

Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina; Lähteenmäki, Liisa

2007-03-01

Risks appear to be perceived in two different ways, affectively and rationally. Finnish adult internet users were contacted via e-mail and asked to fill an internet questionnaire consisting of questions of food risks and measures of avoidance and approach motivation, analytic and intuitive information processing style, trait anxiety, and gender in order to find out (1) whether food risks are perceived two-dimensionally, (2) how individual differences in motivation, information processing, and anxiety are associated with the different dimensions of food risk perceptions, and (3) whether gender moderates these associations. The data were analyzed by factor, correlation and regression analyses. Three factors emerged: risk scariness, risk likelihood, and risks of cardiovascular disease. Personality and gender x personality interactions predicted food risk perceptions. Results showed that food risk perceptions generally form two dimensions; scariness and likelihood, but that this may depend on the nature of the risk. In addition, results imply that individuals with high avoidance motivation perceive food risks as scarier and more likely than others, and that individuals with an analytic information processing style perceive food risks as less likely than others. Trait anxiety seems to be associated with higher food risk perceptions only among men.

Risk as an attribute in discrete choice experiments: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Harrison, Mark; Rigby, Dan; Vass, Caroline; Flynn, Terry; Louviere, Jordan; Payne, Katherine

2014-01-01

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are used to elicit preferences of current and future patients and healthcare professionals about how they value different aspects of healthcare. Risk is an integral part of most healthcare decisions. Despite the use of risk attributes in DCEs consistently being highlighted as an area for further research, current methods of incorporating risk attributes in DCEs have not been reviewed explicitly. This study aimed to systematically identify published healthcare DCEs that incorporated a risk attribute, summarise and appraise methods used to present and analyse risk attributes, and recommend best practice regarding including, analysing and transparently reporting the methodology supporting risk attributes in future DCEs. The Web of Science, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Econlit databases were searched on 18 April 2013 for DCEs that included a risk attribute published since 1995, and on 23 April 2013 to identify studies assessing risk communication in the general (non-DCE) health literature. Healthcare-related DCEs with a risk attribute mentioned or suggested in the title/abstract were obtained and retained in the final review if a risk attribute meeting our definition was included. Extracted data were tabulated and critically appraised to summarise the quality of reporting, and the format, presentation and interpretation of the risk attribute were summarised. This review identified 117 healthcare DCEs that incorporated at least one risk attribute. Whilst there was some evidence of good practice incorporated into the presentation of risk attributes, little evidence was found that developing methods and recommendations from other disciplines about effective methods and validation of risk communication were systematically applied to DCEs. In general, the reviewed DCE studies did not thoroughly report the methodology supporting the explanation of risk in training materials, the impact of framing risk, or exploring the validity of risk communication. The primary limitation of this review was that the methods underlying presentation, format and analysis of risk attributes could only be appraised to the extent that they were reported. Improvements in reporting and transparency of risk presentation from conception to the analysis of DCEs are needed. To define best practice, further research is needed to test how the process of communicating risk affects the way in which people value risk attributes in DCEs.

Risk Factors for Intimate Partner Violence: A Comparison of Antisocial and Family-Only Perpetrators.

PubMed

Petersson, Joakim; Strand, Susanne; Selenius, Heidi

2016-03-27

Subtyping male perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) based on their generality of violence could facilitate the difficult task of matching perpetrator subtype with efficient risk management strategies. As such, the aim of the present study was to compare antisocial and family-only male perpetrators of interpersonal violence in terms of (a) demographic and legal characteristics, (b) risk factors for violence, and (c) assessed risk and the importance of specific risk factors for violence. A quantitative design was used in this retrospective register study on data obtained from the Swedish police. Risk assessments performed with the Swedish version of the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) and police registers were used. A sample of 657 male alleged IPV perpetrators were classified asantisocial(n= 341) orfamily-only(n= 316) based on their generality of violence. The results showed that the antisocial perpetrators were significantly younger, as well as more psychologically abusive. Antisocial perpetrators also had significantly more present risk factors for IPV, and were assessed with a significantly higher risk for acute and severe or deadly IPV, compared with the family-only perpetrators. The subtypes also evidenced unique risk factors with a significant impact on elevated risk for acute and severe or deadly such violence. Key findings in the present study concerned the subtypes evidencing unique risk factors increasing the risk for acute and severe or deadly IPV. Major implications of this study include the findings of such unique "red flag" risk factors for each subtype. To prevent future IPV, it is vital for the risk assessor to be aware of these red flags when making decisions about risk, as well as risk management strategies. © The Author(s) 2016.

To what extent is the familial risk of rheumatoid arthritis explained by established rheumatoid arthritis risk factors?

PubMed

Jiang, Xia; Frisell, Thomas; Askling, Johan; Karlson, Elizabeth W; Klareskog, Lars; Alfredsson, Lars; Källberg, Henrik

2015-02-01

Family history of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is one of the strongest risk factors for developing RA, and information on family history is, therefore, routinely collected in clinical practice. However, as more genetic and environmental risk factors shared by relatives are identified, the importance of family history may diminish. The aim of this study was to determine how much of the familial risk of RA can be explained by established genetic and nongenetic risk factors. History of RA among first-degree relatives of individuals in the Epidemiological Investigation of Rheumatoid Arthritis case-control study was assessed through linkage to the Swedish Multigeneration Register and the Swedish Patient Register. We used logistic regression models to investigate the decrease in familial risk after successive adjustment for combinations of nongenetic risk factors (smoking, alcohol intake, parity, silica exposure, body mass index, fatty fish consumption, and education), and genetic risk factors (shared epitope [SE] and 76 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]). Established nongenetic risk factors did not explain familial risk of either seropositive or seronegative RA to any significant degree. Genetic risk factors accounted for a limited proportion of the familial risk of seropositive RA (unadjusted odds ratio [OR] 4.10, SE-adjusted OR 3.72, SNP-adjusted OR 3.46, and SE and SNP-adjusted OR 3.35). Established risk factors only provided an explanation for familial risk of RA in minor part, suggesting that many (familial) risk factors remain to be identified, in particular for seronegative RA. Family history of RA therefore remains an important clinical risk factor for RA, the value of which has not yet been superseded by other information. There is thus a need for further etiologic studies of both seropositive and seronegative RA. Copyright © 2015 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Establishing a Program for Individuals at High Risk for Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Cadiz, Fernando; Kuerer, Henry M.; Puga, Julio; Camacho, Jamile; Cunill, Eduardo; Arun, Banu

2013-01-01

Our need to create a program for individuals at high risk for breast cancer development led us to research the available data on such programs. In this paper, we summarize our findings and our thinking process as we developed our own program. Breast cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Even though there are known risk factors for breast cancer development, approximately 60% of patients with breast cancer have no known risk factor, although this situation will probably change with further research, especially in genetics. For patients with risk factors based on personal or family history, different models are available for assessing and quantifying risk. Assignment of risk levels permits tailored screening and risk reduction strategies. Potential benefits of specialized programs for women with high breast cancer risk include more cost -effective interventions as a result of patient stratification on the basis of risk; generation of valuable data to advance science; and differentiation of breast programs from other breast cancer units, which can result in increased revenue that can be directed to further improvements in patient care. Guidelines for care of patients at high risk for breast cancer are available from various groups. However, running a high-risk breast program involves much more than applying a guideline. Each high-risk program needs to be designed by its institution with consideration of local resources and country legislation, especially related to genetic issues. Development of a successful high-risk program includes identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; developing a promotion plan; choosing a risk assessment tool; defining “high risk”; and planning screening and risk reduction strategies for the specific population served by the program. The information in this article may be useful for other institutions considering creation of programs for patients with high breast cancer risk. PMID:23833688

Screening for risk of violence using service users' self-perceptions: A prospective study from an acute mental health unit.

PubMed

Lockertsen, Øyvind; Procter, Nicolas; Vatnar, Solveig Karin Bø; Faerden, Ann; Eriksen, Bjørn Magne S; Roaldset, John Olav; Varvin, Sverre

2018-06-01

Service users' self-perception of risk has rarely been emphasized in violence risk assessments. A recent review pointed to the importance of a multidisciplinary approach, because different perspectives may provide a deeper and improved understanding of risk assessment. The aim of this study was to investigate service users' perceptions of their own risk of committing violence, using a self-report risk scale, to determine the feasibility and efficacy of this potential violence risk marker during acute mental health hospitalization. All service users admitted to a psychiatric emergency hospital in Norway during one calendar year were included (N = 512). Nearly 80% self-reported no risk or low risk; only seven (1.4%) reported moderate risk or high risk. Service users who reported moderate risk, high risk, don't know, or won't answer were more likely to be violent (OR = 4.65, 95% CI = 2.79-7.74) compared with those who reported no risk or low risk. There was a significant gender interaction with higher OR for women on both univariate and multivariate analyses. Although the OR was higher for women, women's violence rate (11.0%) was almost half that of men (21.8%). For women, sensitivity and specificity were 0.55 and 0.88, respectively; corresponding values for men were 0.40 and 0.80. Inclusion of self-perception of violence risk is the first step towards service users' collaborative involvement in violence prediction; these results indicate that self-perception can contribute to violence risk assessments in acute mental health settings. Findings also indicate that there are gender differences in these assessments. © 2017 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

PubMed Central

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models. Methods We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants. Results We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures. Conclusions The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC. PMID:21797996

Attitude to health risk in the Canadian population: a cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Bansback, Nick; Harrison, Mark; Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Stiggelbout, Anne; Whitehurst, David G.T.

2016-01-01

Background: Risk is a ubiquitous part of health care. Understanding how people respond to risks is important for predicting how populations make health decisions. Our objective was to seek preliminary descriptive insights into the attitude to health risk in the Canadian population and factors associated with heterogeneity in risk attitude. Methods: We used a large market-research panel to survey (in English and French) a representative sample of the Canadian general population that reflected the age, sex and geography of the population. The survey included the Health-Risk Attitude Scale, which predicts how a person resolves risky health decisions related to treatment, prevention of disease and health-related behaviour. In addition, we assessed participants' numeracy and risk understanding, as well as income band and level of education. We summarized the responses, and we explored the independent associations between demographics, numeracy, risk understanding and risk attitude in multivariable models. Results: Of 6780 respondents, 4949 (73.0%) were averse to health risks; however, but there was considerable heterogeneity in the magnitude of risk aversion. We found significant gradients of risk averse attitudes with increasing age and being female (p < 0.001) using the multivariable model. French-speaking participants appeared to be more risk averse than those who were English-speaking (p < 0.001), as were individuals scoring higher on the Subjective Numeracy Scale (p < 0.001). Interpreation: In general, Canadians were averse to health risks, but we found that a sizeable, identifiable group of risk takers exists. Heterogeneity in preferences for risk can explain variations in health care utilization in the context of patient-centred care. Understanding risk preference heterogeneity can help guide policy and assist in patient-physician decisions. PMID:27398375

Psoriasis and cardiovascular risk. Assessment by different cardiovascular risk scores.

PubMed

Fernández-Torres, R; Pita-Fernández, S; Fonseca, E

2013-12-01

Psoriasis is an inflammatory disease associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, very few studies determine cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham risk score or other indices more appropriate for countries with lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. To determine multiple cardiovascular risk scores in psoriasis patients, the relation between cardiovascular risk and psoriasis features and to compare our results with those in the literature. We assessed demographic data, smoking status, psoriasis features, blood pressure and analytical data. Cardiovascular risk was determined by means of Framingham, SCORE, DORICA and REGICOR scores. A total of 395 patients (59.7% men and 40.3% women) aged 18-86 years were included. The proportion of patients at intermediate and high risk of suffering a major cardiovascular event in the next 10 years was 30.5% and 11.4%, respectively, based on Framingham risk score; 26.9% and 2.2% according to DORICA and 6.8% and 0% using REGICOR score. According to the SCORE index, 22.1% of patients had a high risk of death due to a cardiovascular event over the next 10 years. Cardiovascular risk was not related to psoriasis characteristics, except for the Framingham index, with higher risk in patients with more severe psoriasis (P = 0.032). A considerable proportion of patients had intermediate or high cardiovascular risk, without relevant relationship with psoriasis characteristics and treatment schedules. Therefore, systematic evaluation of cardiovascular risk scores in all psoriasis patients could be useful to identify those with increased cardiovascular risk, subsidiary of lifestyle changes or therapeutic interventions. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology © 2012 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

Type 2 diabetes risk screening in dental practice settings: a pilot study.

PubMed

Wright, D; Muirhead, V; Weston-Price, S; Fortune, F

2014-04-01

Dental surgeries are highlighted in the 2012 NICE guidance Preventing type 2 diabetes: risk identification and interventions for individuals at high risk as a suitable setting in which to encourage people to have a type 2 diabetes risk assessment. To assess the feasibility of implementing a type 2 diabetes risk screening pathway in dental settings using the NICE guidance tool. The study was carried out over two weeks in June 2013. The validated tool in the NICE guidance was used to determine risk. This included a questionnaire and BMI measurement used to determine a risk score. Patients were rated low, increased, moderate or high risk. All patients were given written advice on healthy lifestyle. Patients who were moderate or high risk were referred to their general medical practitioners for further investigation. Participating dental teams were asked to nominate a member who would be responsible for overseeing the screening and training the other team members. A total of 166 patients took part in the pilot (58% male, 75% aged 49 years or younger and 77% were from BME groups). Twenty-six low risk patients (15.7%), 61 increased risk patients (36.7%), 49 moderate-risk patients (29.5%) and 30 high-risk patients (18.1%) were identified during the pilot. Fifteen of the 49 patients (30.6%) identified as moderate-risk and 6 of the 30 high-risk patients (20%) had visited their GP to discuss their type 2 diabetes risk in response to the screening. The pilot suggests that people at risk of developing type 2 diabetes could be identified in primary, community and secondary dental care settings. The main challenges facing dental staff were time constraints, limited manpower and the low number of patients who visited their GP for further advice.

The HHS-HCC Risk Adjustment Model for Individual and Small Group Markets under the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Ingber, Melvin; Freeman, Sara; Patterson, Lindsey; Cohen, Michael; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses are able to purchase private health insurance through competitive Marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge. The risk adjustment methodology includes the risk adjustment model and the risk transfer formula. This article is the second of three in this issue of the Review that describe the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) risk adjustment methodology and focuses on the risk adjustment model. In our first companion article, we discuss the key issues and choices in developing the methodology. In this article, we present the risk adjustment model, which is named the HHS-Hierarchical Condition Categories (HHS-HCC) risk adjustment model. We first summarize the HHS-HCC diagnostic classification, which is the key element of the risk adjustment model. Then the data and methods, results, and evaluation of the risk adjustment model are presented. Fifteen separate models are developed. For each age group (adult, child, and infant), a model is developed for each cost sharing level (platinum, gold, silver, and bronze metal levels, as well as catastrophic plans). Evaluation of the risk adjustment models shows good predictive accuracy, both for individuals and for groups. Lastly, this article provides examples of how the model output is used to calculate risk scores, which are an input into the risk transfer formula. Our third companion paper describes the risk transfer formula. PMID:25360387

Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

PubMed

Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

2015-09-01

National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

PubMed

Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

2017-02-01

Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

PubMed

Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

2017-01-01

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchecker, M.; Salvini, G.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Semenzin, E.; Maidl, E.; Marcomini, A.

2013-11-01

Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

A Risk Assessment Comparison of Breast Cancer and Factors Affected to Risk Perception of Women in Turkey: A Cross-sectional Study

PubMed Central

YÜKSEL, Serpil; ALTUN UĞRAŞ, Gülay; ÇAVDAR, İkbal; BOZDOĞAN, Atilla; ÖZKAN GÜRDAL, Sibel; AKYOLCU, Neriman; ESENCAN, Ecem; VAROL SARAÇOĞLU, Gamze; ÖZMEN, Vahit

2017-01-01

Background: The increase in breast cancer incidence has enhanced attention towards breast cancer risk. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of breast cancer and risk perception of women, factors that affect risk perception, and to determine differences between absolute risk and the perception of risk. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out among 346 women whose score in the Gail Risk Model (GRM) was ≥ 1.67% and/or had a 1st degree relative with breast cancer in Bahçeşehir town in Istanbul, Turkey between Jul 2012 and Dec 2012. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews. The level of risk for breast cancer has been calculated using GRM and the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Form (BCRAF). Breast cancer risk perception (BCRP), has been evaluated by visual analogue 100-cm-long scale. Results: Even though 39.6% of the women considered themselves as high-risk carriers, according to the GRM and the BCRAF, only 11.6% and 9.8% of women were in the “high risk” category, respectively. There was a positive significant correlation between the GRM and the BCRAF scores (P<0.001), and the BCRAF and BCRP scores (P<0.001). Factors related to high-risk perception were age (40–59 yr), post-menopausal phase, high-very high economic income level, existence of breast cancer in the family, having regular breast self-examination and clinical breast examination (P<0.05). Conclusion: In women with high risk of breast, cancer there is a significant difference between the women’s risk perception and their absolute risk level. PMID:28435816

Metabolic factors and genetic risk mediate familial type 2 diabetes risk in the Framingham Heart Study

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Sridharan; Porneala, Bianca; McKeown, Nicola; Fox, Caroline S.; Dupuis, Josée; Meigs, James B.

2015-01-01

Aims/hypothesis Type 2 diabetes mellitus in parents is a strong determinant of diabetes risk in their offspring. We hypothesise that offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes is mediated by metabolic risk factors. Methods We studied initially non-diabetic participants of the Framingham Offspring Study. Metabolic risk was estimated using beta cell corrected insulin response (CIR), HOMA-IR or a count of metabolic syndrome components (metabolic syndrome score [MSS]). Dietary risk and physical activity were estimated using questionnaire responses. Genetic risk score (GRS) was estimated as the count of 62 type 2 diabetes risk alleles. The outcome of incident diabetes in offspring was examined across levels of parental diabetes exposure, accounting for sibling correlation and adjusting for age, sex and putative mediators. The proportion mediated was estimated by comparing regression coefficients for parental diabetes with (βadj) and without (βunadj) adjustments for CIR, HOMA-IR, MSS and GRS (percentage mediated = 1 – βadj / βunadj). Results Metabolic factors mediated 11% of offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes, corresponding to a reduction in OR per diabetic parent from 2.13 to 1.96. GRS mediated 9% of risk, corresponding to a reduction in OR per diabetic parent from 2.13 to 1.99. Conclusions/interpretation Metabolic risk factors partially mediated offspring type 2 diabetes risk conferred by parental diabetes to a similar magnitude as genetic risk. However, a substantial proportion of offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes remains unexplained by metabolic factors, genetic risk, diet and physical activity, suggesting that important familial influences on diabetes risk remain undiscovered. PMID:25619168

Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

2017-11-01

An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

The Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Risk to Belgium Early 2014, using the Quick and Semiquantitative Pandora Screening Protocol.

PubMed

Roelandt, S; Van der Stede, Y; D'hondt, B; Koenen, F

2017-02-01

A risk assessment was organized during the early EU ASF outbreaks of early 2014 (February-April) and performed in cooperation with 15 Belgian and European experts on ASFV and its epidemiology in pigs/wild boar. African swine fever (ASF) is considered as one of the most dangerous infectious pig diseases, causing many outbreaks. Since the end of 2013 - early 2014, several outbreaks within the European Union (Lithuania, Poland, Estonia and Latvia) were reported to OIE, which prompted several risk assessments by (inter)national bodies and scientists. In this study, the open source, semiquantitative Pandora risk assessment tool was used for a quick overall screening of the risk posed by ASF to Belgium early 2014. A set of integrated risk scores was calculated within the Pandora framework. Experts scored the questions and uncertainty levels in the Pandora modules individually, after which the calculations were performed and averaged scores were used within pre-defined risk scales to define and visualize the ASF risk to Belgium. Emergence risk was considered low (Pandora score 0.29), while disease consequences were deemed high (0.93); the resulting multiplicative overall risk of ASFV for Belgium was low (0.27). The Belgian experts tended to give lower risk scores than the European experts, especially for entry risk and trade/public opinion consequences. These risk scores are further interpreted with a due consideration of the qualitative data in the expert remarks and of other ASF risk assessments. The results are similar to more extensive and elaborate risk assessment models/procedures which may require more time and resources. The Pandora tool allows sequential updates to monitor (rates of) increasing risk and provides information for risk managers to organize targeted control. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadovsky, Alexander V.; Bilimoria, Karl D.

2016-01-01

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

A positive risk approach when clients choose to live at risk: a palliative case discussion.

PubMed

De Bono, Christopher E; Henry, Blair

2016-09-01

The article discusses recent approaches in the literature about clients who chose to live at risk in their homes. It argues for a positive risk-based approach and a tool to help manage risk in the home, and applies these to a hypothetical end-of-life scenario. Historically, safety plans to consider risk management involved a culture of risk aversion supported by sometimes paternalistic motives intended to protect vulnerable clients. New findings in the literature engage in a process that respects the ethical principles underlying harm reduction philosophies. The literature also argues for a perspective that moves away from viewing risk as only harmful, to one that supports a positive understanding of risk as part of a client's informed choice. A risk support management plan, based on a positive approach, can provide a way to both support a client's choice to live at risk, anticipate for expected complications, and inform the creation of a contingency plan to address concerns as they may arise. The added value of a structured approach like the one proposed here for risk support management plans is that it provides adequate due diligence and informed decision-making when planning for risk-taking in complex situations.

Child and environmental risk factors predicting readiness for learning in children at high risk of dyslexia.

PubMed

Dilnot, Julia; Hamilton, Lorna; Maughan, Barbara; Snowling, Margaret J

2017-02-01

We investigate the role of distal, proximal, and child risk factors as predictors of reading readiness and attention and behavior in children at risk of dyslexia. The parents of a longitudinal sample of 251 preschool children, including children at family risk of dyslexia and children with preschool language difficulties, provided measures of socioeconomic status, home literacy environment, family stresses, and child health via interviews and questionnaires. Assessments of children's reading-related skills, behavior, and attention were used to define their readiness for learning at school entry. Children at family risk of dyslexia and children with preschool language difficulties experienced more environmental adversities and health risks than controls. The risks associated with family risk of dyslexia and with language status were additive. Both home literacy environment and child health predicted reading readiness while home literacy environment and family stresses predicted attention and behavior. Family risk of dyslexia did not predict readiness to learn once other risks were controlled and so seems likely to be best conceptualized as representing gene-environment correlations. Pooling across risks defined a cumulative risk index, which was a significant predictor of reading readiness and, together with nonverbal ability, accounted for 31% of the variance between children.

[Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

PubMed

Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

2016-05-15

Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴).

Analyzing risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael S; Zhang, Xun; Platt, Robert W

2014-02-01

Approaches for analyzing the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes have been the source of much debate and many publications. Much of the problem, in our view, is the conflation of time at risk with gestational age at birth (or birth weight, a proxy for gestational age). We consider the causal questions underlying such analyses with the help of a generic directed acyclic graph. We discuss competing risks and populations at risk in the context of appropriate numerators and denominators, respectively. We summarize 3 different approaches to quantifying risks with respect to gestational age, each of which addresses a distinct etiological or prognostic question (i.e., cumulative risk, prospective risk, or instantaneous risk (hazard)) and suggest the appropriate denominators for each. We show how the gestational age-specific risk of perinatal death (PND) can be decomposed as the product of the gestational age-specific risk of birth and the risk of PND conditional on birth at a given gestational age. Finally, we demonstrate how failure to consider the first of these 2 risks leads to selection bias. This selection bias creates the well-known crossover paradox, thus obviating the need to posit common causes of early birth and PND other than the study exposure.

Defining HIV risk and determining responsibility in postsocialist Poland.

PubMed

Owczarzak, Jill

2009-12-01

Drawing on 15 months of ethnographic research on HIV prevention programs in Poland, I explore the consequences of the shift from models of HIV prevention that emphasize "risk groups" and AIDS blame, to models that focus on "risky behaviors" and universal risk. The centrality of choice making and individual risk management in these models suggests objective risk assessment free from moralizing arguments. The Polish national prevention strategy shifted to focus on choice making, address all risk groups, and include concrete prevention strategies. This shift created a backlash that resulted in the reassertion of moral arguments about risk and risk groups that positioned those most vulnerable to HIV outside the purview of prevention efforts. AIDS organizations working with marginalized, "morally problematic" populations used the label "at risk" to legitimize claims to resources. They enacted a model of risk reduction in which the relevant actor is the individual buffeted by social forces; behavior change, and therefore HIV risk reduction, is a long process because of myriad forms of vulnerability clients face. Despite efforts to reconceptualize risk, organizations positioned the individual as the locus of HIV prevention interventions, rather than attempting to address the social context that shapes risk.

Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Charles Awoala

For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most preferred risk management policy option based on the result of the composite score is accept and control risk with a priority of .446, followed by transfer or share risk with a priority of .303. The least likely option is to terminate or forgo activity with a priority of .251.

Definition and Validation of “Favorable High-Risk Prostate Cancer”: Implications for Personalizing Treatment of Radiation-Managed Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muralidhar, Vinayak; Chen, Ming-Hui; Reznor, Gally

Purpose: To define and validate a classification of favorable high-risk prostate cancer that could be used to personalize therapy, given that consensus guidelines recommend similar treatments for all radiation-managed patients with high-risk disease. Methods and Materials: We studied 3618 patients with cT1-T3aN0M0 high-risk or unfavorable intermediate-risk prostate adenocarcinoma treated with radiation at a single institution between 1997 and 2013. Favorable high-risk was defined as T1c disease with either Gleason 4 + 4 = 8 and prostate-specific antigen <10 ng/mL or Gleason 6 and prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/mL. Competing risks regression was used to determine differences in the risk of prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM) after controlling formore » baseline factors and treatment. Our results were validated in a cohort of 13,275 patients using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Results: Patients with favorable high-risk disease had significantly better PCSM than other men with high-risk disease (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 0.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.18-0.996, P=.049) and similar PCSM as men with unfavorable intermediate-risk disease (AHR 1.17, 95% CI 0.50-2.75, P=.710). We observed very similar results within the SEER-Medicare cohort (favorable high-risk vs other high-risk: AHR 0.21, 95% CI 0.11-0.41, P<.001; favorable high-risk vs unfavorable intermediate-risk: AHR 0.67, 95% CI 0.33-1.36, P=.268). Conclusions: Patients with favorable high-risk prostate cancer have significantly better PCSM than other patients with high-risk disease and similar PCSM as those with unfavorable intermediate-risk disease, who are typically treated with shorter-course androgen deprivation therapy. This new classification system may allow for personalization of treatment within high-risk disease, such as consideration of shorter-course androgen deprivation therapy for favorable high-risk disease.« less

Failure to perceive increased risk of fracture in women 55 years and older: the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW)

PubMed Central

Gehlbach, S.; Adachi, J. D.; Boonen, S.; Chapurlat, R. D.; Compston, J. E.; Cooper, C.; Delmas, P.; Díez-Pérez, A.; Hooven, F. H.; LaCroix, A. Z.; Netelenbos, J. C.; Pfeilschifter, J.; Rossini, M.; Roux, C.; Saag, K. G.; Sambrook, P.; Silverman, S.; Watts, N. B.; Wyman, A.; Greenspan, S. L.

2010-01-01

Summary We compared self-perception of fracture risk with actual risk among 60,393 postmenopausal women aged ≥55 years, using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). Most postmenopausal women with risk factors failed to appreciate their actual risk for fracture. Improved education about osteoporosis risk factors is needed. Introduction This study seeks to compare self-perception of fracture risk with actual risk among postmenopausal women using data from GLOW. Methods GLOW is an international, observational, cohort study involving 723 physician practices in 17 sites in ten countries in Europe, North America, and Australia. Participants included 60,393 women ≥55 years attended by their physician during the previous 24 months. The sample was enriched so that two thirds were ≥65 years. Baseline surveys were mailed October 2006 to February 2008. Main outcome measures were self-perception of fracture risk in women with elevated risk vs women of the same age and frequency of risk factors for fragility fracture. Results In the overall study population, 19% (10,951/58,434) of women rated their risk of fracture as a little/much higher than that of women of the same age; 46% (27,138/58,434) said it was similar; 35% (20,345/58,434) believed it to be a little/much lower. Among women whose actual risk was increased based on the presence of any one of seven risk factors for fracture, the proportion who recognized their increased risk ranged from 19% for smokers to 39% for current users of glucocorticoid medication. Only 33% (4,185/12,612) of those with ≥2 risk factors perceived themselves as being at higher risk. Among women reporting a diagnosis of osteopenia or osteoporosis, only 25% and 43%, respectively, thought their risk was increased. Conclusion In this international, observational study, most postmenopausal women with risk factors failed to appreciate their actual risk for fracture. PMID:20358360

Perceived social risk in medical decision-making for physical child abuse: a mixed-methods study.

PubMed

Keenan, Heather T; Campbell, Kristine A; Page, Kent; Cook, Lawrence J; Bardsley, Tyler; Olson, Lenora M

2017-12-22

The medical literature reports differential decision-making for children with suspected physical abuse based on race and socioeconomic status. Differential evaluation may be related to differences of risk indicators in these populations or differences in physicians' perceptions of abuse risk. Our objective was to understand the contribution of the child's social ecology to child abuse pediatricians' perception of abuse risk and to test whether risk perception influences diagnostic decision-making. Thirty-two child abuse pediatrician participants prospectively contributed 746 consultations from for children referred for physical abuse evaluation (2009-2013). Participants entered consultations to a web-based interface. Participants noted their perception of child race, family SES, abuse diagnosis. Participants rated their perception of social risk for abuse and diagnostic certainty on a 1-100 scale. Consultations (n = 730) meeting inclusion criteria were qualitatively analyzed for social risk indicators, social and non-social cues. Using a linear mixed-effects model, we examined the associations of social risk indicators with participant social risk perception. We reversed social risk indicators in 102 cases whilst leaving all injury mechanism and medical information unchanged. Participants reviewed these reversed cases and recorded their social risk perception, diagnosis and diagnostic certainty. After adjustment for physician characteristics and social risk indicators, social risk perception was highest in the poorest non-minority families (24.9 points, 95%CI: 19.2, 30.6) and minority families (17.9 points, 95%CI, 12.8, 23.0). Diagnostic certainty and perceived social risk were associated: certainty increased as social risk perception increased (Spearman correlation 0.21, p < 0.001) in probable abuse cases; certainty decreased as risk perception increased (Spearman correlation (-)0.19, p = 0.003) in probable not abuse cases. Diagnostic decisions changed in 40% of cases when social risk indicators were reversed. CAP risk perception that poverty is associated with higher abuse risk may explain documented race and class disparities in the medical evaluation and diagnosis of suspected child physical abuse. Social risk perception may act by influencing CAP certainty in their diagnosis.

Evaluation of Carrying Capacity Land-Based Layout to Mitigate Flood Risk (Case Study in Tempuran Floodplain, Ponorogo Regency) Novia Lusiana1 Bambang Rahadi2 Tunggul Sutanhaji3 1Environmental and Natural Resources Management Graduate Program University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia 23Laboratory of Environment and Natural Resources Engineering, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia Email : novialusiana@rocketmail.com, jbrahadi@ub.ac.id, tunggulsutanhaji@yahoo.com

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusiana, N.

2013-12-01

Abstract Floods haves frequently hit Indonesia and have had greater negative impacts. In Javaboth the area affected by flooding and the amount of damage caused by floods have increased. At least, five factors, affect the flooding in Indonesia, including rainfall, reduced retention capacity of the watershed, erroneous design of river channel development, silting-up of the river, and erroneous regional layout. The level of the disastrous risks can be evaluated based on the extent of the threat and susceptibility of a region. One methode for risk assessment is Geographical Information System (GIS)-based mapping. Objectives of this research are: 1) evaluating current flood risk in susceptible areas, 2) applying supported land-based layout as effort to mitigate floodrisk, and 3) evaluating floodrisk for the period 2031 in the Tempuran floodplain of Ponorogo Regency. Result show that the area categorized as high risk covers 104. 6 ha (1. 2%), moderate risk covers 2512. 9 ha (28. 4%), low risk covers 3140. 8 ha (35. 5%), and the lowest risk covers 3096. 1 (34. 9%). Using Regional Layout Design for the years 2011 - 2031, the high risk area covers 67. 9 ha (0.8%), moderate risk covers 3033 ha (34. 3%), low risk covers 2770. 8 ha (31, 3%), and the lowest risk covers 2982. 6 ha (34%). Based on supported land suitability, the high-risk areais only 2. 9 ha (0.1%), moderate risk covers of 426. 1 ha (4. 8%), low risk covers 4207. 4 ha (47. 5%), and the lowest risk covers 4218 ha (47. 6%). Flood risk can be mitigated by applying supported land-based layout as shown by the reduced high-risk area, and the fact that > 90% of the areas are categorized as low or lowest risk of disaster. Keywords : Carrying Capacity, Land Capacity, Flood Risk

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still relatively undeveloped in several key topic areas including cancers other than breast and in specific populations. Future rigorous risk perception research using experimental designs and focused on cancers other than breast would advance the field. PMID:21595959

Risk communication: Uncertainties and the numbers game

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortigara, M.

1995-08-30

The science of risk assessment seeks to characterize the potential risk in situations that may pose hazards to human health or the environment. However, the conclusions reached by the scientists and engineers are not an end in themselves - they are passed on to the involved companies, government agencies, legislators, and the public. All interested parties must then decide what to do with the information. Risk communication is a type of technical communication that involves some unique challenges. This paper first defines the relationships between risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication and then explores two issues in risk communication:more » addressing uncertainty and putting risk number into perspective.« less

Dealing With Uncertainty: Testing Risk- and Ambiguity-Attitude Across Adolescence.

PubMed

Blankenstein, Neeltje E; Crone, Eveline A; van den Bos, Wouter; van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C K

2016-01-01

Attitudes to risk (known probabilities) and attitudes to ambiguity (unknown probabilities) are separate constructs that influence decision making, but their development across adolescence remains elusive. We administered a choice task to a wide adolescent age-range (N = 157, 10-25 years) to disentangle risk- and ambiguity-attitudes using a model-based approach. Additionally, this task was played in a social context, presenting choices from a high risk-taking peer. We observed age-related changes in ambiguity-attitude, but not risk-attitude. Also, ambiguity-aversion was negatively related to real-life risk taking. Finally, the social context influenced only risk-attitudes. These results highlight the importance of disentangling risk- and ambiguity-attitudes in adolescent risk taking.

Risks of visiting snow destinations: an analysis of skiers' views.

PubMed

Carús, Luis

2010-03-01

Very little research exists regarding the risks of visiting snow destinations. This study attempts to bridge this gap through insights into skiers' perceptions of risk, of great relevance to snow industry stakeholders, by identifying factors that influence skiers. The research was conducted in the Spanish Pyrenees, using information gathered from adult members of two ski clubs that regularly visit this snow destination. Skiing risks, accommodation risks and public safety risks were found to have the most important bearing on visitors' risk perceptions. However, actual figures demonstrate that respondents had some difficulties in assessing the typicality of the risk items and tended to misjudge the true level of the risks. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

PubMed

von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

2016-03-01

Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

Risk factors for opioid overdose and awareness of overdose risk among veterans prescribed chronic opioids for addiction or pain.

PubMed

Wilder, Christine M; Miller, Shannon C; Tiffany, Elizabeth; Winhusen, Theresa; Winstanley, Erin L; Stein, Michael D

2016-01-01

Rising overdose fatalities among U.S. veterans suggest veterans taking prescription opioids may be at risk for overdose. However, it is unclear whether veterans prescribed chronic opioids are aware of this risk. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors and determine awareness of risk for opioid overdose in veterans treated with opioids for chronic pain, using veterans treated with methadone or buprenorphine for opioid use disorder as a high-risk comparator group. In the current study, 90 veterans on chronic opioid medication, for either opioid use disorder or pain management, completed a questionnaire assessing risk factors, knowledge, and self-estimate of risk for overdose. Nearly all veterans in both groups had multiple overdose risk factors, although individuals in the pain management group had on average a significantly lower total number of risk factors than did individuals in the opioid use disorder group (5.9 versus 8.5, p < .0001). On average, participants treated for pain management scored slightly but significantly lower on knowledge of opioid overdose risk factors (12.1 versus 13.5, p < .01). About 70% of participants, regardless of group, believed their overdose risk was below that of the average American adult. There was no significant relationship between self-estimate of overdose risk and either number or knowledge of opioid overdose risk factors. Our results suggest that veterans in both groups underestimated their risk for opioid overdose. Expansion of overdose education to include individuals on chronic opioids for pain management and a shift in educational approaches to overdose prevention may be indicated.

Malaria Chemoprophylaxis: Strategies for Risk Groups

PubMed Central

Schlagenhauf, Patricia; Petersen, Eskild

2008-01-01

The risk of malaria for travelers varies from region to region and depends on the intensity of transmission, the duration of the stay in the area of endemicity, the style of travel, and the efficacy of preventive measures. The decision to recommend chemoprophylaxis to travelers to areas with a low risk of malarial infection is especially difficult because the risk of infection must be balanced with the risk of experiencing side effects. If the risk of side effects by far exceeds the risk of infection, the traveler needs information on measures against mosquito bites and advice on prompt diagnosis and self-treatment. The risk is difficult to quantify, and the absolute risk for travelers to most areas is not known, especially because the populations at risk are unknown. We propose here that the best approximation of the risk to the traveler to a specific area is to use the risk to the indigenous population as a guideline for the risk to the traveler, and we provide examples on how risk in the indigenous population can be used for the estimation of risk of malarial infection for travelers. Special groups are long-term visitors and residents, who often perceive risk differently, cease using chemoprophylaxis, and rely on self-diagnosis and treatment. For long-term visitors, the problem of fake drugs needs to be discussed. Strategies for chemoprophylaxis and self-treatment of pregnant women and small children are discussed. So far, malaria prophylaxis is recommended to prevent Plasmodium falciparum infections, and primaquine prophylaxis against persistent Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium ovale infections in travelers is not recommended. PMID:18625682

Improving risk management: from lame excuses to principled practice.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth; Cox, Louis Anthony

2014-07-01

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame-shifting "lame excuses" for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning-especially from near-misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk-reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Match of psychosocial risk and psychosocial care in families of a child with cancer.

PubMed

Sint Nicolaas, S M; Schepers, S A; van den Bergh, E M M; de Boer, Y; Streng, I; van Dijk-Lokkart, E M; Grootenhuis, M A; Verhaak, C M

2017-12-01

The Psychosocial Assessment Tool (PAT) was developed to screen for psychosocial risk, aimed to be supportive in directing psychosocial care to families of a child with cancer. This study aimed to determine (i) the match between PAT risk score and provided psychosocial care with healthcare professionals blind to outcome of PAT assessment, and (ii) the match between PAT risk score and team risk estimation. Eighty-three families of children with cancer from four pediatric oncology centers in the Netherlands participated (59% response rate). The PAT and team risk estimation was assessed at diagnosis (M = 40.2 days, SD = 14.1 days), and the content of provided psychosocial care in the 5-month period thereafter resulting in basic or specialized care. According to the PAT, 65% of families were defined as having low (universal), 30% medium (targeted), and 5% high (clinical) risk for developing psychosocial problems. Thirty percent of patients from universal group got basic psychosocial care, 63% got specialized care, and 7% did not get any care. Fourteen percent of the families at risk got basic care, 86% got specialized care. Team risk estimations and PAT risk scores matched with 58% of the families. This study showed that families at risk, based on standardized risk assessment with the PAT, received more specialized care than families without risk. However, still 14% of the families with high risks only received basic care, and 63% of the families with standard risk got specialized care. Standardized risk assessment can be used as part of comprehensive care delivery, complementing the team. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pressure ulcer risk assessment and prevention: what difference does a risk scale make? A comparison between Norway and Ireland.

PubMed

Johansen, E; Moore, Z; van Etten, M; Strapp, H

2014-07-01

To explore similarities and differences in nurses' views on risk assessment practices and preventive care activities in a context where patients' risk of developing pressure ulcers is assessed using clinical judgment (Norway) and a context where patients' risk of developing pressure ulcers is assessed using a formal structured risk assessment combined with clinical judgement (Ireland). A descriptive, qualitative design was employed across two different care settings with a total of 14 health care workers, nine from Norway and five from Ireland. Regardless of whether risk assessment was undertaken using clinical judgment or formal structured risk assessment, identified risk factors, at risk patients and appropriate preventive initiatives discussed by participant were similar across care settings. Furthermore, risk assessment did not necessarily result in the planning and implementation of appropriate pressure ulcer prevention initiatives. Thus, in this instance, use of a formal risk assessment tool does not seem to make any difference to the planning, initiation and evaluation of pressure ulcer prevention strategies. Regardless of the method of risk assessment, patients at risk of developing pressure ulcers are detected, suggesting that the practice of risk assessment should be re-evaluated. Moreover, appropriate preventive interventions were described. However, the missing link between risk assessment and documented care planning is of concern and barriers to appropriate pressure ulcer documentation should be explored further. This work is partly funded by a research grant from the Norwegian Nurses Organisation (NNO) (Norsk Sykepleierforbund NSF) in 2012. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

The Key Role of Experiential Uncertainty when Dealing with Risks: Its Relationships with Demand for Regulation and Institutional Trust.

PubMed

Poortvliet, P Marijn; Lokhorst, Anne Marike

2016-08-01

The results of a survey and an experiment show that experiential uncertainty-people's experience of uncertainty in risk contexts-plays a moderating role in individuals' risk-related demand for government regulation and trust in risk-managing government institutions. First, descriptions of risks were presented to respondents in a survey (N = 1,017) and their reactions to questions about experiential uncertainty, risk perception, and demand for government regulation were measured, as well as levels of risk-specific knowledge. When experiential uncertainty was high, risk perceptions had a positive relationship with demand for government regulation of risk; no such relationship showed under low experiential uncertainty. Conversely, when people experience little experiential uncertainty, having more knowledge about the risk topic involved was associated with a weaker demand for government regulation of risk. For people experiencing uncertainty, this relationship between knowledge and demand for regulation did not emerge. Second, in an experiment (N = 120), experiential uncertainty and openness in risk communication were manipulated to investigate effects on trust. In the uncertainty condition, the results showed that open versus nonopen government communication about Q-fever-a zoonosis-led to higher levels of trust in the government agency, but not in in the control condition. Altogether, this research suggests that only when people experience relatively little uncertainty about the risk, knowledge provision may preclude them from demanding government action. Also, only when persons experience uncertainty are stronger risk perceptions associated with a demand for government regulation, and they are affected by openness of risk communication in forming institutional trust. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development and Validation of a Video Measure for Assessing Women’s Risk Perception for Alcohol-Related Sexual Assault

PubMed Central

Parks, Kathleen A.; Levonyan-Radloff, Kristine; Dearing, Ronda L.; Hequembourg, Amy; Testa, Maria

2016-01-01

Objective Using an iterative process, a series of three video scenarios were developed for use as a standardized measure for assessing women’s perception of risks for alcohol-related sexual assault (SA). The videos included ambiguous and clear behavioral and environmental risk cues. Method Focus group discussions with young, female heavy drinkers (N = 42) were used to develop three videos at different risk levels (low, moderate, and high) in Study 1. Realism, reliability, and validity of the videos were assessed using multiple methods in Studies 2 and 3. One hundred-four women were used to compare differences in risk perception across the video risk level in Study 2. In Study 3 (N = 60), we assessed women’s perceptions of the low and high risk videos under conditions of no alcohol and alcohol. Results The realism and reliability of the videos were good. Women who viewed the low risk video compared to women who viewed the moderate and high risk videos perceived less risk for SA. We found an interaction between alcohol and risk perception such that, women in the alcohol condition were less likely to perceive risk when watching the high risk video. Conclusions As the video risk level increased, women’s perception of risk increased. These findings provide convergent evidence for the validity of the video measure. Given the limited number of standardized scenarios for assessing risk perception for sexual assault, our findings suggest that these videos may provide a needed standardized measure. PMID:27747131

FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

PubMed

Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

2013-03-01

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

Making sense of cancer risk calculators on the web.

PubMed

Levy, Andrea Gurmankin; Sonnad, Seema S; Kurichi, Jibby E; Sherman, Melani; Armstrong, Katrina

2008-03-01

Cancer risk calculators on the internet have the potential to provide users with valuable information about their individual cancer risk. However, the lack of oversight of these sites raises concerns about low quality and inconsistent information. These concerns led us to evaluate internet cancer risk calculators. After a systematic search to find all cancer risk calculators on the internet, we reviewed the content of each site for information that users should seek to evaluate the quality of a website. We then examined the consistency of the breast cancer risk calculators by having 27 women complete 10 of the breast cancer risk calculators for themselves. We also completed the breast cancer risk calculators for a hypothetical high- and low-risk woman, and compared the output to Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results estimates for the average same-age and same-race woman. Nineteen sites were found, 13 of which calculate breast cancer risk. Most sites do not provide the information users need to evaluate the legitimacy of a website. The breast cancer calculator sites vary in the risk factors they assess to calculate breast cancer risk, how they operationalize each risk factor and in the risk estimate they provide for the same individual. Internet cancer risk calculators have the potential to provide a public health benefit by educating individuals about their risks and potentially encouraging preventive health behaviors. However, our evaluation of internet calculators revealed several problems that call into question the accuracy of the information that they provide. This may lead the users of these sites to make inappropriate medical decisions on the basis of misinformation.

Stratifying empiric risk of schizophrenia among first degree relatives using multiple predictors in two independent Indian samples.

PubMed

Bhatia, Triptish; Gettig, Elizabeth A; Gottesman, Irving I; Berliner, Jonathan; Mishra, N N; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L; Deshpande, Smita N

2016-12-01

Schizophrenia (SZ) has an estimated heritability of 64-88%, with the higher values based on twin studies. Conventionally, family history of psychosis is the best individual-level predictor of risk, but reliable risk estimates are unavailable for Indian populations. Genetic, environmental, and epigenetic factors are equally important and should be considered when predicting risk in 'at risk' individuals. To estimate risk based on an Indian schizophrenia participant's family history combined with selected demographic factors. To incorporate variables in addition to family history, and to stratify risk, we constructed a regression equation that included demographic variables in addition to family history. The equation was tested in two independent Indian samples: (i) an initial sample of SZ participants (N=128) with one sibling or offspring; (ii) a second, independent sample consisting of multiply affected families (N=138 families, with two or more sibs/offspring affected with SZ). The overall estimated risk was 4.31±0.27 (mean±standard deviation). There were 19 (14.8%) individuals in the high risk group, 75 (58.6%) in the moderate risk and 34 (26.6%) in the above average risk (in Sample A). In the validation sample, risks were distributed as: high (45%), moderate (38%) and above average (17%). Consistent risk estimates were obtained from both samples using the regression equation. Familial risk can be combined with demographic factors to estimate risk for SZ in India. If replicated, the proposed stratification of risk may be easier and more realistic for family members. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dispositional optimism and perceived risk interact to predict intentions to learn genome sequencing results.

PubMed

Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P; Ferrer, Rebecca A; Lewis, Katie L; Biesecker, Leslie G; Biesecker, Barbara B

2015-07-01

Dispositional optimism and risk perceptions are each associated with health-related behaviors and decisions and other outcomes, but little research has examined how these constructs interact, particularly in consequential health contexts. The predictive validity of risk perceptions for health-related information seeking and intentions may be improved by examining dispositional optimism as a moderator, and by testing alternate types of risk perceptions, such as comparative and experiential risk. Participants (n = 496) had their genomes sequenced as part of a National Institutes of Health pilot cohort study (ClinSeq®). Participants completed a cross-sectional baseline survey of various types of risk perceptions and intentions to learn genome sequencing results for differing disease risks (e.g., medically actionable, nonmedically actionable, carrier status) and to use this information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. Risk perceptions (absolute, comparative, and experiential) were largely unassociated with intentions to learn sequencing results. Dispositional optimism and comparative risk perceptions interacted, however, such that individuals higher in optimism reported greater intentions to learn all 3 types of sequencing results when comparative risk was perceived to be higher than when it was perceived to be lower. This interaction was inconsistent for experiential risk and absent for absolute risk. Independent of perceived risk, participants high in dispositional optimism reported greater interest in learning risks for nonmedically actionable disease and carrier status, and greater intentions to use genome information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. The relationship between risk perceptions and intentions may depend on how risk perceptions are assessed and on degree of optimism. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Dispositional Optimism and Perceived Risk Interact to Predict Intentions to Learn Genome Sequencing Results

PubMed Central

Taber, Jennifer M.; Klein, William M. P.; Ferrer, Rebecca A.; Lewis, Katie L.; Biesecker, Leslie G.; Biesecker, Barbara B.

2015-01-01

Objective Dispositional optimism and risk perceptions are each associated with health-related behaviors and decisions and other outcomes, but little research has examined how these constructs interact, particularly in consequential health contexts. The predictive validity of risk perceptions for health-related information seeking and intentions may be improved by examining dispositional optimism as a moderator, and by testing alternate types of risk perceptions, such as comparative and experiential risk. Method Participants (n = 496) had their genomes sequenced as part of a National Institutes of Health pilot cohort study (ClinSeq®). Participants completed a cross-sectional baseline survey of various types of risk perceptions and intentions to learn genome sequencing results for differing disease risks (e.g., medically actionable, nonmedically actionable, carrier status) and to use this information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. Results Risk perceptions (absolute, comparative, and experiential) were largely unassociated with intentions to learn sequencing results. Dispositional optimism and comparative risk perceptions interacted, however, such that individuals higher in optimism reported greater intentions to learn all 3 types of sequencing results when comparative risk was perceived to be higher than when it was perceived to be lower. This interaction was inconsistent for experiential risk and absent for absolute risk. Independent of perceived risk, participants high in dispositional optimism reported greater interest in learning risks for nonmedically actionable disease and carrier status, and greater intentions to use genome information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. Conclusions The relationship between risk perceptions and intentions may depend on how risk perceptions are assessed and on degree of optimism. PMID:25313897

Risk perception and choice of place of birth in women with high risk pregnancies: A qualitative study.

PubMed

Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

2016-07-01

Objective To examine the perception of risk among a group of women with high risk pregnancies who were either planning to give birth in hospital, or at home despite medical advice to the contrary. The intention was to consider differences and similarities between the groups to examine how perception of risk relates to choice of place of birth. Design Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Setting Maternity department in a hospital in South East England. Participants Twenty-six women with high risk pregnancies, at least 32 weeks pregnant. Half were planning hospital births and half homebirths. Measurements and findings Semi-structured interviews to investigate women's understanding and assessment of risk. Results were analysed using thematic analysis. Five themes emerged: understanding of situation; judgement of risk; reassuring factors; impact of risk; and coping with risk. Women from both groups had some understanding of the implications of their medical/obstetric conditions. They displayed concerns about their babies' wellbeing. Women planning homebirths assessed their risks as lower and expressed less concerns than women planning hospital births. Women planning hospital births more frequently described following professional advice. Key conclusions Risk perception is individual and subjective. Women with high risk pregnancies who plan to give birth at home perceive risk differently to women who plan hospital births. Implications for practice Healthcare professionals working with women with high risk pregnancies should be aware of the potential for differences in definitions and perceptions of risk within this group. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for forested habitats in northern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe

2012-01-01

We used a risk matrix to assess risk from climate change for multiple forest species by discussing an example that depicts a range of risk for three tree species of northern Wisconsin. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or effects of that event. In the context of species habitats, likelihood is related to...

Does Using Nonnumerical Terms to Describe Risk Aid Violence Risk Communication? Clinician Agreement and Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilton, N. Zoe; Carter, Angela M.; Harris, Grant T.; Sharpe, Amilynn J. B.

2008-01-01

Actuarial risk assessments yield valid numerical information about violence risk, but research suggests that forensic clinicians prefer to communicate risk using nonnumerical information (i.e., verbal terms such as high risk). In an experimental questionnaire study, 60 forensic clinicians disagreed on the interpretation of nonnumerical terms, and…

12 CFR 324.31 - Mechanics for calculating risk-weighted assets for general credit risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Mechanics for calculating risk-weighted assets for general credit risk. 324.31 Section 324.31 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION... Assets-Standardized Approach Risk-Weighted Assets for General Credit Risk § 324.31 Mechanics for...

Risk Taking in Late Adolescence: Relations between Sociomoral Reasoning, Risk Stance, and Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Leigh A.; Amsel, Eric; Schillo, Joshua

2011-01-01

This study explored relations among late adolescents' sociomoral reasoning about risk taking, risk stance, and behavior. One-hundred and thirty-two participants (18-20-year-olds) were surveyed about their own risk stance (Avoidant, Opportunistic, Curious, Risk Seeking) and behavior in three realms (Alcohol Use, Drug Use, Reckless Driving), and…

Health Risk Taking and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Risk in Collegiate Female Athletes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kokotailo, Patricia K.; Koscik, Rebecca E.; Henry, Bill C.; Fleming, Michael F.; Landry, Gregory L.

1998-01-01

A human immunodeficiency virus risk-scale compared risky health behaviors of female college athletes and their nonathlete peers. Both groups reported several risk behaviors. Athletes had significantly lower proportions of risk behaviors in several categories than nonathletes, though high levels of risk behavior overall indicated a need for…

Herbicides and forest ecosystems - approaches to risk communication

Treesearch

Charles K. McMahon

1992-01-01

Abstract.It has become apparent to many risk experts that without good communication, risk assessment and risk management efforts may be largely in vain. For the public, perception is reality when it comes to the interpretation of risk information and the shaping of regulatory policy. The findings of several- risk communication experts are reviewed...

Multi-Risk Infants: Predicting Attachment Security from Sociodemographic, Psychosocial, and Health Risk among African-American Preterm Infants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Candelaria, Margo; Teti, Douglas M.; Black, Maureen M.

2011-01-01

Background: Ecological and transactional theories link child outcomes to accumulated risk. This study hypothesized that cumulative risk was negatively related to attachment, and that maternal sensitivity mediated linkages between risk and attachment. Methods: One hundred and twelve high-risk African-American premature infant-mother dyads…

77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-30

... Corporation 12 CFR Parts 324, 325 Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule... 325 RIN 3064-AD97 Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk... the agencies' current capital rules. In this NPR (Advanced Approaches and Market Risk NPR) the...

Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2004-01-01

A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

Affect and Acceptability: Exploring Teachers' Technology-Related Risk Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Sarah K.

2011-01-01

Educational change, such as technology integration, involves risk. Teachers are encouraged to "take risks", but what risks they are asked to take and how do they perceive these risks? Developing an understanding of teachers' technology-related risk perceptions can help explain their choices and behaviours. This paper presents a way to…

International Banking: Implementation of Risk-Based Capital Adequacy Standards

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

exchange rates (foreign exchange rate risk), and in the prices of securities and trded debt instruments (position risk), credit risk would be addressed first...banks face many other risks, such as changes in the value of their holdings due to mo Ve- ments in interest rates (interest rate risk), in foreign

Relationship of psychological distress and unprotected sex among individuals with HIV seeking mental health care.

PubMed

Shacham, Enbal; Basta, Tania B; Reece, Michael

2009-01-01

This study examined the prevalence of sexual behavior and its relationship with psychological distress among individuals with HIV who were seeking mental health care. Upon self-enrollment in HIV-related mental health care, 845 participants completed self-assessments of demographics, psychological distress, and sexual behaviors. Participants were categorized by sexual risk as determined by their reported unprotected sexual activity within the previous 30 days: receptive anal or vaginal sex (high-risk), insertive anal or vaginal sex (moderate-risk), oral sex (low-risk), and no sex (no-risk). The majority of the sample was classified as no-risk, 11% low-risk, 5% moderate-risk, and 17% were high-risk. Levels of psychological distress did not differ across risk levels. Overall psychological distress levels were elevated, 19% of the sample expressed severe distress. Use of illicit drugs, alcohol, and no-AIDS diagnosis predicted high-risk sexual behaviors. A substantial proportion of the sample reported engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors, which signifies the need to further incorporate sex-related prevention efforts among HIV-infected populations.

Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance.

PubMed

Rocks, Sophie A; Schubert, Iljana; Soane, Emma; Black, Edgar; Muckle, Rachel; Petts, Judith; Prpich, George; Pollard, Simon J

2017-09-01

Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Novice drivers' risky driving behavior, risk perception, and crash risk: findings from the DRIVE study.

PubMed

Ivers, Rebecca; Senserrick, Teresa; Boufous, Soufiane; Stevenson, Mark; Chen, Huei-Yang; Woodward, Mark; Norton, Robyn

2009-09-01

We explored the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young novice drivers and sought to determine their associations with crash risk. Provisional drivers aged 17 to 24 (n = 20 822) completed a detailed questionnaire that included measures of risk perception and behaviors; 2 years following recruitment, survey data were linked to licensing and police-reported crash data. Poisson regression models that adjusted for multiple confounders were created to explore crash risk. High scores on questionnaire items for risky driving were associated with a 50% increased crash risk (adjusted relative risk = 1.51; 95% confidence interval = 1.25, 1.81). High scores for risk perception (poorer perceptions of safety) were also associated with increased crash risk in univariate and multivariate models; however, significance was not sustained after adjustment for risky driving. The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue. Risky driving behavior is strongly linked to crash risk among young drivers and overrides the importance of risk perceptions. Systemwide intervention, including licensing reform, is warranted.

Women and cosmetic breast surgery: weighing the medical, social, and lifestyle risks.

PubMed

Boulton, Tiffany N; Malacrida, Claudia

2012-04-01

In this article we provide a comparative analysis of qualitative, semistructured interviews with 24 women who had undergone different forms of cosmetic breast surgery (CBS). We argue that women must negotiate three types of risk: potential medical risks, lifestyle risks connected with choosing "frivolous" self-enhancements, and countervailing social risks affiliated with pressures to maximize one's feminine beauty. In addition, we highlight the challenges faced in negotiating these risks by examining the limits to traditional forms of medical informed consent provided to the women, who received little information on the medical risks associated with CBS, or who were given uncertain and contradictory risk information. Even respondents who felt that they were well informed expressed difficulties in making "wise" choices because the risks were distant or unlikely, and hence easily minimized. Given this, it is fairly understandable that the known social risks of "failed" beauty faced by the women often outweighed the ambiguous or understated risks outlined by medicine. We argue that traditional notions of informed consent and risk awareness might not be adequate for women choosing CBS.

When Dread Risks Are More Dreadful than Continuous Risks: Comparing Cumulative Population Losses over Time.

PubMed

Bodemer, Nicolai; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Galesic, Mirta

2013-01-01

People show higher sensitivity to dread risks, rare events that kill many people at once, compared with continuous risks, relatively frequent events that kill many people over a longer period of time. The different reaction to dread risks is often considered a bias: If the continuous risk causes the same number of fatalities, it should not be perceived as less dreadful. We test the hypothesis that a dread risk may have a stronger negative impact on the cumulative population size over time in comparison with a continuous risk causing the same number of fatalities. This difference should be particularly strong when the risky event affects children and young adults who would have produced future offspring if they had survived longer. We conducted a series of simulations, with varying assumptions about population size, population growth, age group affected by risky event, and the underlying demographic model. Results show that dread risks affect the population more severely over time than continuous risks that cause the same number of fatalities, suggesting that fearing a dread risk more than a continuous risk is an ecologically rational strategy.

A DISCUSSION ON DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING LIFETIME RISKS OF RADON-INDUCED LUNG CANCER.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Murith, Christophe; Palacios, Martha; Wang, Chunhong; Liu, Senlin

2017-11-01

Lifetime risks of radon induced lung cancer were assessed based on epidemiological approaches for Canadian, Swiss and Chinese populations, using the most recent vital statistic data and radon distribution characteristics available for each country. In the risk calculation, the North America residential radon risk model was used for the Canadian population, the European residential radon risk model for the Swiss population, the Chinese residential radon risk model for the Chinese population, and the EPA/BEIR-VI radon risk model for all three populations. The results were compared with the risk calculated from the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP)'s exposure-to-risk conversion coefficients. In view of the fact that the ICRP coefficients were recommended for radiation protection of all populations, it was concluded that, generally speaking, lifetime absolute risks calculated with ICRP-recommended coefficients agree reasonably well with the range of radon induced lung cancer risk predicted by risk models derived from epidemiological pooling analyses. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

PubMed

Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D

2012-02-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Import Security: Assessing the Risks of Imported Food.

PubMed

Welburn, Jonathan; Bier, Vicki; Hoerning, Steven

2016-11-01

We use data on food import violations from the FDA Operational and Administrative System for Import Support (OASIS) to address rising concerns associated with imported food, quantify import risks by product and by country of origin, and explore the usefulness of OASIS data for risk assessment. In particular, we assess whether there are significant trends in violations, whether import violations can be used to quantify risks by country and by product, and how import risks depend on economic factors of the country of origin. The results show that normalizing import violations by volume of imports provides a meaningful indicator of risk. We then use regression analysis to characterize import risks.  Using this model, we analyze import risks by product type, violation type, and economic factors of the country of origin.  We find that OASIS data are useful in quantifying food import risks, and that the rate of refusals provides a useful decision tool for risk management.  Furthermore, we find that some economic factors are significant indicators of food import risk by country. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

PubMed

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-03-15

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

Risk Assessment and Hierarchical Risk Management of Enterprises in Chemical Industrial Parks Based on Catastrophe Theory

PubMed Central

Chen, Yu; Song, Guobao; Yang, Fenglin; Zhang, Shushen; Zhang, Yun; Liu, Zhenyu

2012-01-01

According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP, China. According to the principle of equal distribution function, the chemical enterprise risk level was divided into the following five levels: 1.0 (very safe), 0.8 (safe), 0.6 (generally recognized as safe, GRAS), 0.4 (unsafe), 0.2 (very unsafe). The results revealed five enterprises (50%) with an unsafe risk level, and another five enterprises (50%) at the generally recognized as safe risk level. This method solves the multi-objective evaluation and decision-making problem. Additionally, this method involves simple calculations and provides an effective technique for risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in CIPs. PMID:23208298

The Perinatal Risk Index: Early Risks Experienced by Domestic Adoptees in the United States.

PubMed

Marceau, Kristine; De Araujo-Greecher, Marielena; Miller, Emily S; Massey, Suena H; Mayes, Linda C; Ganiban, Jody M; Reiss, David; Shaw, Daniel S; Leve, Leslie D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

2016-01-01

We aimed to assess comprehensively the prevalence of perinatal risks experienced by a potentially high-risk yet understudied population of children domestically adopted in the United States. Data are from participant report and medical records from mothers (n = 580) who completed a domestic adoption placement with nonrelatives at or near birth (Mean placement age = 7 days). We describe a comprehensive measure of perinatal risks, including divergences from previous assessment tools and the incorporation of multiple reporters, and report the prevalence of various types of perinatal risks. The prevalence of each specific risk factor was generally low, although several risks were more prevalent in this sample than estimates from nationally representative publicly available data. Nearly the entire sample (99%) experienced some type of risk exposure. Birth mothers who placed their children for adoption domestically in the US experience higher levels of perinatal risks than the national average, but not for all specific types of risk. Thus, the developmental trajectories of children adopted domestically may systematically differ from the general population to the extent that these specific perinatal risks impact development.

Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

MedlinePlus

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Humans vs Hardware: The Unique World of NASA Human System Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Overton, Eric

2016-01-01

Understanding spaceflight risks to crew health and performance is a crucial aspect of preparing for exploration missions in the future. The research activities of the Human Research Program (HRP) provide substantial evidence to support most risk reduction work. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), acting on behalf of the Office of Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO), assesses these risks and assigns likelihood and consequence ratings to track progress. Unfortunately, many traditional approaches in risk assessment such as those used in the engineering aspects of spaceflight are difficult to apply to human system risks. This presentation discusses the unique aspects of risk assessment from the human system risk perspective and how these limitations are accommodated and addressed in order to ensure that reasonable inputs are provided to support the OCHMO's overall risk posture for manned exploration missions.

Chronic and Acute Relational Risk Factors for Dating Aggression in Adolescence and Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Furman, Wyndol

2016-01-01

Dating aggression is a prevalent and costly public health concern. Using a relational risk framework, this study examined acute and chronic relational risk factors (negative interactions, jealousy, support, & relationship satisfaction) and their effects on physical and psychological dating aggression. The study also examined the interaction between chronic and acute risk, allowing us to assess how changes in acute risk have differing effects depending on whether the individual is typically at higher chronic risk. A sample of 200 youth (100 female) completed seven waves of data, which spanned nine years from middle adolescence to young adulthood (M age at Wave 1 = 15.83). Using hierarchical linear modeling, analyses revealed both acute (within-person) and chronic (between-person) levels in jealousy, negative interactions, and relationship satisfaction, were associated with physical and psychological dating aggression. Significant interactions between chronic and acute risk emerged in predicting physical aggression for negative interactions, jealousy, and relationship satisfaction such that those with higher levels of chronic risk are more vulnerable to increases in acute risk. These interactions between chronic and acute risk indicate that risk is not static, and dating aggression is particularly likely to occur at certain times for youth at high risk for dating aggression. Such periods of increased risk may provide opportunities for interventions to be particularly effective in preventing dating aggression or its consequences. Taken together, these findings provide support for the role of relational risk factors for dating aggression. They also underscore the importance of considering risk dynamically. PMID:26832727

Validation of Risk Assessment Models of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Medical Patients.

PubMed

Greene, M Todd; Spyropoulos, Alex C; Chopra, Vineet; Grant, Paul J; Kaatz, Scott; Bernstein, Steven J; Flanders, Scott A

2016-09-01

Patients hospitalized for acute medical illness are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism. Although risk assessment is recommended and several at-admission risk assessment models have been developed, these have not been adequately derived or externally validated. Therefore, an optimal approach to evaluate venous thromboembolism risk in medical patients is not known. We conducted an external validation study of existing venous thromboembolism risk assessment models using data collected on 63,548 hospitalized medical patients as part of the Michigan Hospital Medicine Safety (HMS) Consortium. For each patient, cumulative venous thromboembolism risk scores and risk categories were calculated. Cox regression models were used to quantify the association between venous thromboembolism events and assigned risk categories. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-index. Venous thromboembolism incidence in hospitalized medical patients is low (1%). Although existing risk assessment models demonstrate good calibration (hazard ratios for "at-risk" range 2.97-3.59), model discrimination is generally poor for all risk assessment models (C-index range 0.58-0.64). The performance of several existing risk assessment models for predicting venous thromboembolism among acutely ill, hospitalized medical patients at admission is limited. Given the low venous thromboembolism incidence in this nonsurgical patient population, careful consideration of how best to utilize existing venous thromboembolism risk assessment models is necessary, and further development and validation of novel venous thromboembolism risk assessment models for this patient population may be warranted. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.

PubMed

Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will

2015-03-01

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Chronic and Acute Relational Risk Factors for Dating Aggression in Adolescence and Young Adulthood.

PubMed

Collibee, Charlene; Furman, Wyndol

2016-04-01

Dating aggression is a prevalent and costly public health concern. Using a relational risk framework, this study examined acute and chronic relational risk factors (negative interactions, jealousy, support, and relationship satisfaction) and their effects on physical and psychological dating aggression. The study also examined the interaction between chronic and acute risk, allowing us to assess how changes in acute risk have differing effects depending on whether the individual is typically at higher chronic risk. A sample of 200 youth (100 female) completed seven waves of data, which spanned 9 years from middle adolescence to young adulthood (M age at Wave 1 = 15.83). Using hierarchical linear modeling, analyses revealed both acute (within-person) and chronic (between-person) levels in jealousy, negative interactions, and relationship satisfaction, were associated with physical and psychological dating aggression. Significant interactions between chronic and acute risk emerged in predicting physical aggression for negative interactions, jealousy, and relationship satisfaction such that those with higher levels of chronic risk are more vulnerable to increases in acute risk. These interactions between chronic and acute risk indicate that risk is not static, and dating aggression is particularly likely to occur at certain times for youth at high risk for dating aggression. Such periods of increased risk may provide opportunities for interventions to be particularly effective in preventing dating aggression or its consequences. Taken together, these findings provide support for the role of relational risk factors for dating aggression. They also underscore the importance of considering risk dynamically.

Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

PubMed Central

Smith, Jim T

2007-01-01

Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the) major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident) with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks. PMID:17407581

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

PubMed Central

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-01-01

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution. PMID:26308032

Method of Breast Reconstruction Determines Venous Thromboembolism Risk Better Than Current Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Patel, Niyant V.; Wagner, Douglas S.

2015-01-01

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk models including the Davison risk score and the 2005 Caprini risk assessment model have been validated in plastic surgery patients. However, their utility and predictive value in breast reconstruction has not been well described. We sought to determine the utility of current VTE risk models in this population and the VTE rate observed in various methods of breast reconstruction. Methods: A retrospective review of breast reconstructions by a single surgeon was performed. One hundred consecutive transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous (TRAM) patients, 100 consecutive implant patients, and 100 consecutive latissimus dorsi patients were identified over a 10-year period. Patient demographics and presence of symptomatic VTE were collected. 2005 Caprini risk scores and Davison risk scores were calculated for each patient. Results: The TRAM reconstruction group was found to have a higher VTE rate (6%) than the implant (0%) and latissimus (0%) reconstruction groups (P < 0.01). Mean Davison risk scores and 2005 Caprini scores were similar across all reconstruction groups (P > 0.1). The vast majority of patients were stratified as high risk (87.3%) by the VTE risk models. However, only TRAM reconstruction patients demonstrated significant VTE risk. Conclusions: TRAM reconstruction appears to have a significantly higher risk of VTE than both implant and latissimus reconstruction. Current risk models do not effectively stratify breast reconstruction patients at risk for VTE. The method of breast reconstruction appears to have a significant role in patients’ VTE risk. PMID:26090287

Impact of UKPDS risk estimation added to a first subjective risk estimation on management of coronary disease risk in type 2 diabetes - An observational study.

PubMed

Wind, Anne E; Gorter, Kees J; van den Donk, Maureen; Rutten, Guy E H M

2016-02-01

To investigate the impact of the UKPDS risk engine on management of CHD risk in T2DM patients. Observational study among 139 GPs. Data from 933 consecutive patients treated with a maximum of two oral glucose lowering drugs, collected at baseline and after twelve months. GPs estimated the CHD risk themselves and afterwards they calculated this with the UKPDS risk engine. Under- and overestimation were defined as a difference >5 percentage points difference between both calculations. The impact of the UKPDS risk engine was assessed by measuring differences in medication adjustments between the over-, under- and accurately estimated group. In 42.0% the GP accurately estimated the CHD risk, in 32.4% the risk was underestimated and in 25.6% overestimated. Mean difference between the estimated (18.7%) and calculated (19.1%) 10 years CHD risk was -0.36% (95% CI -1.24 to 0.52). Male gender, current smoking and total cholesterol level were associated with underestimation. Patients with an subjectively underestimated CHD risk received significantly more medication adjustments. Their UKPDS 10 year CHD risk did not increase during the follow-up period, contrary to the other two groups of patients. The UKPDS risk engine may be of added value for risk management in T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient centered fall risk awareness perspectives: clinical correlates and fall risk

PubMed Central

Verghese, Joe

2016-01-01

Background While objective measures to assess risk of falls in older adults have been established; the value of patient self-reports in the context of falls is not known. Objectives To identify clinical correlates of patient centered fall risk awareness, and their validity for predicting falls. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting and Participants 316 non-demented and ambulatory community-dwelling older adults (mean age 78 years, 55% women). Measurements Fall risk awareness was assessed with a two-item questionnaire, which asked participants about overall likelihood and personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. Incident falls were recorded over study follow-up. Results Fifty-three participants (16.8%) responded positively to the first fall risk awareness question about being likely to have a fall in the next 12 months, and 100 (31.6%) reported being at personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. There was only fair correlation (kappa 0.370) between responses on the two questions. Prior falls and depressive symptoms were associated with positive responses on both fall risk awareness questions. Age and other established fall risk factors were not associated with responses on both fall risk awareness questions. The fall risk awareness questionnaire did not predict incident falls or injurious falls. Conclusion Fall risk awareness is low in older adults. While patient centered fall risk awareness is not predictive of falls, subjective risk perceptions should be considered when designing fall preventive strategies as they may influence participation and behaviors. PMID:27801936

Risk of injury for occupants of motor vehicle collisions from unbelted occupants.

PubMed

MacLennan, P A; McGwin, G; Metzger, J; Moran, S G; Rue, L W

2004-12-01

Unbelted occupants may increase the risk of injury for other occupants in a motor vehicle collision (MVC). This study evaluated the association between occupant restraint use and the risk of injury (including death) to other vehicle occupants. A population based cohort study. United States. MVC occupants (n = 152 191 unweighted, n = 18 426 684 weighted) seated between a belted or unbelted occupant and the line of the principal direction of force in frontal, lateral, and rear MVCs were sampled from the 1991-2002 National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. Offset MVCs were not included in the study. Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for injury (including death) for occupants seated contiguous to unbelted occupants compared to occupants seated contiguous to belted occupants. Risk ratios were adjusted for at risk occupant's sex, age, seating position, vehicle type, collision type, travel speed, crash severity, and at risk occupants' own seat belt use. Exposure to unbelted occupants was associated with a 40% increased risk of any injury. Belted at risk occupants were at a 90% increased risk of injury but unbelted occupants were not at increased risk. Risks were similar for non-incapacitating and capacitating injuries. There was a 4.8-fold increased risk of death for exposed belted occupants but no increased risk of death for unbelted occupants. Belted occupants are at an increased risk of injury and death in the event of a MVC from unbelted occupants.

Alcohol demand and risk preference.

PubMed

Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

2008-12-01

Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6-8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use.

Risk of injury for occupants of motor vehicle collisions from unbelted occupants

PubMed Central

MacLennan, P; McGwin, G; Metzger, J; Moran, S; Rue, L

2004-01-01

Objective: Unbelted occupants may increase the risk of injury for other occupants in a motor vehicle collision (MVC). This study evaluated the association between occupant restraint use and the risk of injury (including death) to other vehicle occupants. Design: A population based cohort study. Setting: United States. Subjects: MVC occupants (n = 152 191 unweighted, n = 18 426 684 weighted) seated between a belted or unbelted occupant and the line of the principal direction of force in frontal, lateral, and rear MVCs were sampled from the 1991–2002 National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. Offset MVCs were not included in the study. Main outcome measure: Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for injury (including death) for occupants seated contiguous to unbelted occupants compared to occupants seated contiguous to belted occupants. Risk ratios were adjusted for at risk occupant's sex, age, seating position, vehicle type, collision type, travel speed, crash severity, and at risk occupants' own seat belt use. Results: Exposure to unbelted occupants was associated with a 40% increased risk of any injury. Belted at risk occupants were at a 90% increased risk of injury but unbelted occupants were not at increased risk. Risks were similar for non-incapacitating and capacitating injuries. There was a 4.8-fold increased risk of death for exposed belted occupants but no increased risk of death for unbelted occupants. Conclusions: Belted occupants are at an increased risk of injury and death in the event of a MVC from unbelted occupants. PMID:15583258

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China.

PubMed

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-08-21

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.

The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

PubMed

L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J

2000-03-15

The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio (<5.5, 5.5 to <6.5, 6.5 to <7.5, > or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure (<90, > or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

PubMed Central

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O.; Woods, Scott W.; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R.; McGuire, Philip

2016-01-01

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis. PMID:26591006

Changes in erectile dysfunction over time in relation to Framingham cardiovascular risk in the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey.

PubMed

Fang, Shona C; Rosen, Raymond C; Vita, Joseph A; Ganz, Peter; Kupelian, Varant

2015-01-01

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the association between change in ED status over time and future underlying CVD risk is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between change in ED status and Framingham CVD risk, as well change in Framingham risk. We studied 965 men free of CVD in the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey, a longitudinal cohort study with three assessments. ED was assessed with the five-item International Index of Erectile Function at BACH I (2002-2005) and BACH II (2007-2010) and classified as no ED/transient ED/persistent ED. CVD risk was assessed with 10-year Framingham CVD risk algorithm at BACH I and BACH III (2010-2012). Linear regression models controlled for baseline age, socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, as well as baseline Framingham risk. Models were also stratified by age (≥/< 50 years). Framingham CVD risk and change in Framingham CVD risk were the main outcome measures. Transient and persistent ED was significantly associated with increased Framingham risk and change in risk over time in univariate and age-adjusted models. In younger men, persistent ED was associated with a Framingham risk that was 1.58 percentage points higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11, 3.06) and in older men, a Framingham risk that was 2.54 percentage points higher (95% CI: -1.5, 6.59), compared with those without ED. Change in Framingham risk over time was also associated with transient and persistent ED in men <50 years, but not in older men. Data suggest that even after taking into account other CVD risk factors, transient and persistent ED is associated with Framingham CVD risk and a greater increase in Framingham risk over time, particularly in younger men. Findings further support clinical assessment of CVD risk in men presenting with ED, especially those under 50 years. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications.

PubMed

Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

2006-09-20

To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and the cardiovascular risk is low.

Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications

PubMed Central

Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

2006-01-01

Background To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. Methods To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Results Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. Conclusion In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and the cardiovascular risk is low. PMID:16987411

Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

2012-04-01

Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both Merapi and Bromo. Keywords: Risk management, volcanoes hazard, Merapi and Bromo Volcano Indonesia