Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast accuracy. For this reason, it is necessary to clearly regulate the method of risk adjustment in the integrated care contract. The series of three articles on contract design has shown that coordination and motivation problems in designing healthcare contracts cannot be solved at no-costs. Moreover, it became clear, that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic and that contracts do always include certain uncertainties. These are based on the risk of random, and no contracting party can control these risks completely. It is also not possible to fully integrate these risks in the contract or to eliminate these risks by the parties.

Integrating Risk Adjustment and Enrollee Premiums in Health Plan Payment

PubMed Central

McGuire, Thomas G.; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P.; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D.; Zuvekas, Samuel

2013-01-01

In two important health policy contexts – private plans in Medicare and the new state-run “Exchanges” created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). PMID:24308878

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

PubMed Central

Amelung, Volker E.; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast accuracy. For this reason, it is necessary to clearly regulate the method of risk adjustment in the integrated care contract. Conclusions and discussion: The series of three articles on contract design has shown that coordination and motivation problems in designing healthcare contracts cannot be solved at no-costs. Moreover, it became clear, that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic and that contracts do always include certain uncertainties. These are based on the risk of random, and no contracting party can control these risks completely. It is also not possible to fully integrate these risks in the contract or to eliminate these risks by the parties. PMID:29632454

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Woodall, William H

2015-11-10

The risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart developed by Steiner et al. (2000) is an increasingly popular tool for monitoring clinical and surgical performance. In practice, however, the use of a fixed control limit for the chart leads to a quite variable in-control average run length performance for patient populations with different risk score distributions. To overcome this problem, we determine simulation-based dynamic probability control limits (DPCLs) patient-by-patient for the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts. By maintaining the probability of a false alarm at a constant level conditional on no false alarm for previous observations, our risk-adjusted CUSUM charts with DPCLs have consistent in-control performance at the desired level with approximately geometrically distributed run lengths. Our simulation results demonstrate that our method does not rely on any information or assumptions about the patients' risk distributions. The use of DPCLs for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding particular sequence of patients for a surgeon or hospital. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cardiometabolic Syndrome in People With Spinal Cord Injury/Disease: Guideline-Derived and Nonguideline Risk Components in a Pooled Sample.

PubMed

Nash, Mark S; Tractenberg, Rochelle E; Mendez, Armando J; David, Maya; Ljungberg, Inger H; Tinsley, Emily A; Burns-Drecq, Patricia A; Betancourt, Luisa F; Groah, Suzanne L

2016-10-01

To assess cardiometabolic syndrome (CMS) risk definitions in spinal cord injury/disease (SCI/D). Cross-sectional analysis of a pooled sample. Two SCI/D academic medical and rehabilitation centers. Baseline data from subjects in 7 clinical studies were pooled; not all variables were collected in all studies; therefore, participant numbers varied from 119 to 389. The pooled sample included men (79%) and women (21%) with SCI/D >1 year at spinal cord levels spanning C3-T2 (American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale [AIS] grades A-D). Not applicable. We computed the prevalence of CMS using the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute guideline (CMS diagnosis as sum of risks ≥3 method) for the following risk components: overweight/obesity, insulin resistance, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. We compared this prevalence with the risk calculated from 2 routinely used nonguideline CMS risk assessments: (1) key cut scores identifying insulin resistance derived from the homeostatic model 2 (HOMA2) method or quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), and (2) a cardioendocrine risk ratio based on an inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP])-adjusted total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, injury level and AIS grade were unrelated to CMS or risk factors. Of the participants, 13% and 32.1% had CMS when using the sum of risks or HOMA2/QUICKI model, respectively. Overweight/obesity and (pre)hypertension were highly prevalent (83% and 62.1%, respectively), with risk for overweight/obesity being significantly associated with CMS diagnosis (sum of risks, χ(2)=10.105; adjusted P=.008). Insulin resistance was significantly associated with CMS when using the HOMA2/QUICKI model (χ(2)2=21.23, adjusted P<.001). Of the subjects, 76.4% were at moderate to high risk from elevated CRP, which was significantly associated with CMS determination (both methods; sum of risks, χ(2)2=10.198; adjusted P=.048 and HOMA2/QUICKI, χ(2)2=10.532; adjusted P=.04). As expected, guideline-derived CMS risk factors were prevalent in individuals with SCI/D. Overweight/obesity, hypertension, and elevated CRP were common in SCI/D and, because they may compound risks associated with CMS, should be considered population-specific risk determinants. Heightened surveillance for risk, and adoption of healthy living recommendations specifically directed toward weight reduction, hypertension management, and inflammation control, should be incorporated as a priority for disease prevention and management. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment.

PubMed

McGuire, Thomas G; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D; Zuvekas, Samuel H

2013-12-01

In two important health policy contexts - private plans in Medicare and the new state-run "Exchanges" created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) - plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Route Infrastructure and the Risk of Injuries to Bicyclists: A Case-Crossover Study

PubMed Central

Harris, M. Anne; Reynolds, Conor C. O.; Winters, Meghan; Babul, Shelina; Chipman, Mary; Cusimano, Michael D.; Brubacher, Jeff R.; Hunte, Garth; Friedman, Steven M.; Monro, Melody; Shen, Hui; Vernich, Lee; Cripton, Peter A.

2012-01-01

Objectives. We compared cycling injury risks of 14 route types and other route infrastructure features. Methods. We recruited 690 city residents injured while cycling in Toronto or Vancouver, Canada. A case-crossover design compared route infrastructure at each injury site to that of a randomly selected control site from the same trip. Results. Of 14 route types, cycle tracks had the lowest risk (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.02, 0.54), about one ninth the risk of the reference: major streets with parked cars and no bike infrastructure. Risks on major streets were lower without parked cars (adjusted OR = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.41, 0.96) and with bike lanes (adjusted OR = 0.54; 95% CI = 0.29, 1.01). Local streets also had lower risks (adjusted OR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.31, 0.84). Other infrastructure characteristics were associated with increased risks: streetcar or train tracks (adjusted OR = 3.0; 95% CI = 1.8, 5.1), downhill grades (adjusted OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.7, 3.1), and construction (adjusted OR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.3, 2.9). Conclusions. The lower risks on quiet streets and with bike-specific infrastructure along busy streets support the route-design approach used in many northern European countries. Transportation infrastructure with lower bicycling injury risks merits public health support to reduce injuries and promote cycling. PMID:23078480

Better big data.

PubMed

Al Kazzi, Elie S; Hutfless, Susan

2015-01-01

By 2018, Medicare payments will be tied to quality of care. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services currently use quality-based metric for some reimbursements through their different programs. Existing and future quality metrics will rely on risk adjustment to avoid unfairly punishing those who see the sickest, highest-risk patients. Despite the limitations of the data used for risk adjustment, there are potential solutions to improve the accuracy of these codes by calibrating data by merging databases and compiling information collected for multiple reporting programs to improve accuracy. In addition, healthcare staff should be informed about the importance of risk adjustment for quality of care assessment and reimbursement. As the number of encounters tied to value-based reimbursements increases in inpatient and outpatient care, coupled with accurate data collection and utilization, the methods used for risk adjustment could be expanded to better account for differences in the care delivered in diverse settings.

The risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix (DRG) funding in Australia. International lessons in high complexity and capitation.

PubMed

Antioch, Kathryn M; Walsh, Michael K

2004-06-01

Hospitals throughout the world using funding based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) have incurred substantial budgetary deficits, despite high efficiency. We identify the limitations of DRG funding that lack risk (severity) adjustment for State-wide referral services. Methods to risk adjust DRGs are instructive. The average price in casemix funding in the Australian State of Victoria is policy based, not benchmarked. Average cost weights are too low for high-complexity DRGs relating to State-wide referral services such as heart and lung transplantation and trauma. Risk-adjusted specified grants (RASG) are required for five high-complexity respiratory, cardiology and stroke DRGs incurring annual deficits of $3.6 million due to high casemix complexity and government under-funding despite high efficiency. Five stepwise linear regressions for each DRG excluded non-significant variables and assessed heteroskedasticity and multicollinearlity. Cost per patient was the dependent variable. Significant independent variables were age, length-of-stay outliers, number of disease types, diagnoses, procedures and emergency status. Diagnosis and procedure severity markers were identified. The methodology and the work of the State-wide Risk Adjustment Working Group can facilitate risk adjustment of DRGs State-wide and for Treasury negotiations for expenditure growth. The Alfred Hospital previously negotiated RASG of $14 million over 5 years for three trauma and chronic DRGs. Some chronic diseases require risk-adjusted capitation funding models for Australian Health Maintenance Organizations as an alternative to casemix funding. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups can facilitate State and Federal government reform via new population-based risk adjusted funding models that measure health need.

The Costs of Decedents in the Medicare Program: Implications for Payments to Medicare+Choice Plans

PubMed Central

Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes; Garber, Alan M; McClellan, Mark; Newhouse, Joseph P

2004-01-01

Objective To discuss and quantify the incentives that Medicare managed care plans have to avoid (through selective enrollment or disenrollment) people who are at risk for very high costs, focusing on Medicare beneficiaries in the last year of life—a group that accounts for more than one-quarter of Medicare's annual expenditures. Data Source Medicare administrative claims for 1994 and 1995. Study Design We calculated the payment a plan would have received under three risk-adjustment systems for each beneficiary in our 1995 sample based on his or her age, gender, county of residence, original reason for Medicare entitlement, and principal inpatient diagnoses received during any hospital stays in 1994. We compared these amounts to the actual costs incurred by those beneficiaries. We then looked for clinical categories that were predictive of costs, including costs in a beneficiary's last year of life, not accounted for by the risk adjusters. Data Extraction Methods The analyses were conducted using claims for a 5 percent random sample of Medicare beneficiaries who died in 1995 and a matched group of survivors. Principal Findings Medicare is currently implementing the Principal Inpatient Diagnostic Cost Groups (PIP-DCG) risk adjustment payment system to address the problem of risk selection in the Medicare+Choice program. We quantify the strong financial disincentives to enroll terminally ill beneficiaries that plans still have under this risk adjustment system. We also show that up to one-third of the selection observed between Medicare HMOs and the traditional fee-for-service system could be due to differential enrollment of decedents. A risk adjustment system that incorporated more of the available diagnostic information would attenuate this disincentive; however, plans could still use clinical information (not included in the risk adjustment scheme) to identify beneficiaries whose expected costs exceed expected payments. Conclusions More disaggregated prospective risk adjustment methods and alternative payment systems that compensate plans for delivering care to certain classes of patients should be considered to ensure access to high-quality managed care for all beneficiaries. PMID:14965080

Risk Factors for premature birth in a hospital 1

PubMed Central

Ahumada-Barrios, Margarita E.; Alvarado, German F.

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective: to determine the risk factors for premature birth. Methods: retrospective case-control study of 600 pregnant women assisted in a hospital, with 298 pregnant women in the case group (who gave birth prematurely <37 weeks) and 302 pregnant women who gave birth to a full-term newborn in the control group. Stata software version 12.2 was used. The Chi-square test was used in bivariate analysis and logistic regression was used in multivariate analysis, from which Odds Ratios (OR) and Confidence Intervals (CI) of 95% were derived. Results: risk factors associated with premature birth were current twin pregnancy (adjusted OR= 2.4; p= 0.02), inadequate prenatal care (< 6 controls) (adjusted OR= 3.2; p <0.001), absent prenatal care (adjusted OR= 3.0; p <0.001), history of premature birth (adjusted OR= 3.7; p <0.001) and preeclampsia (adjusted OR= 1.9; p= 0.005). Conclusion: history of premature birth, preeclampsia, not receiving prenatal care and receiving inadequate prenatal care were risk factors for premature birth. PMID:27463110

[Risk-adjusted assessment: late-onset infection in neonates].

PubMed

Gmyrek, Dieter; Koch, Rainer; Vogtmann, Christoph; Kaiser, Annette; Friedrich, Annette

2011-01-01

The weak point of the countrywide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case mix of patients. As a result, this approach does not produce reliable benchmarking. The objective of this study was to adjust the result of the late-onset infection incidence of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal database of 41,055 newborns of the Saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2004 was analysed. Based on 18 possible risk factors, a logistic regression model was used to develop a specific risk predictor for the quality indicator "late-onset infection". The developed risk predictor for the incidence of late-onset infection could be described by 4 of the 18 analysed risk factors, namely gestational age, admission from home, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy and B-streptococcal infection. The AUC(ROC) value of this quality indicator was 83.3%, which demonstrates its reliability. The hospital ranking based on the adjusted risk assessment was very different from hospital rankings before this adjustment. The average correction of ranking position was 4.96 for 35 clinics. The application of the risk adjustment method proposed here allows for a more objective comparison of the incidence of the quality indicator "late onset infection" among different hospitals. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Risk and Protective Factors at Age 10: Psychological Adjustment in Children With a Cleft Lip and/or Palate.

PubMed

Feragen, Kristin Billaud; Stock, Nicola Marie

2016-03-01

Objective To explore psychological functioning in children with a cleft at age 10 from a broad perspective, including cognitive, emotional, behavioral, appearance-related, and social adjustment. High-risk groups were identified within each area of adjustment to investigate whether vulnerable children were found across domains or whether risk was limited to specific areas of adjustment. Methods Retrospective chart review from psychological assessments at age 10 (N = 845). The effects of gender, cleft visibility, and the presence of an additional condition were investigated. Results were compared with large national samples. Measures Personality Inventory for Children, Child Experience Questionnaire, Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, Satisfaction With Appearance scale. Results The factor affecting psychological adjustment on most domains was the presence of an associated condition in addition to the cleft. As expected, no support was found for cleft visibility as a risk factor, while there were some gender differences related to emotional difficulties and attention. Correlation analyses of risk groups pointed to an association between social experiences and emotional adjustment and between social and behavioral adjustment; whereas, dissatisfaction with appearance was not related to any other domains of risk at age 10. Conclusions The results point to the importance of early screening and assessment of children born with a cleft to identify possible associated conditions and offer adapted and appropriate treatment and care. Future research should investigate how protective factors could counteract potential risk in children with a cleft.

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data

PubMed Central

Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O.

2018-01-01

Background Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. Methods We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010–2015 was analyzed. Results The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. Conclusions The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality. PMID:29558486

Social and Emotional Adjustment of Siblings of Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pilowsky, Tammy; Yirmiya, Nurit; Doppelt, Osnat; Gross-Tsur, Varda; Shalev, Ruth S.

2004-01-01

Background: Social and emotional adjustment of siblings of children with autism was examined, to explore their risk or resilience to effects of genetic liability and environmental factors involved in having a sibling with autism. Method: Social-emotional adjustment, behavior problems, socialization skills, and siblings' relationships were compared…

On-demand Reporting of Risk-adjusted and Smoothed Rates for Quality Profiling in ACS NSQIP.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Liu, Yaoming; Huffman, Kristopher M; Ko, Clifford Y; Hall, Bruce L

2016-12-01

Surgical quality improvement depends on hospitals having accurate and timely information about comparative performance. Profiling accuracy is improved by risk adjustment and shrinkage adjustment to stabilize estimates. These adjustments are included in ACS NSQIP reports, where hospital odds ratios (OR) are estimated using hierarchical models built on contemporaneous data. However, the timeliness of feedback remains an issue. We describe an alternative, nonhierarchical approach, which yields risk- and shrinkage-adjusted rates. In contrast to our "Traditional" NSQIP method, this approach uses preexisting equations, built on historical data, which permits hospitals to have near immediate access to profiling results. We compared our traditional method to this new "on-demand" approach with respect to outlier determinations, kappa statistics, and correlations between logged OR and standardized rates, for 12 models (4 surgical groups by 3 outcomes). When both methods used the same contemporaneous data, there were similar numbers of hospital outliers and correlations between logged OR and standardized rates were high. However, larger differences were observed when the effect of contemporaneous versus historical data was added to differences in statistical methodology. The on-demand, nonhierarchical approach provides results similar to the traditional hierarchical method and offers immediacy, an "over-time" perspective, application to a broader range of models and data subsets, and reporting of more easily understood rates. Although the nonhierarchical method results are now available "on-demand" in a web-based application, the hierarchical approach has advantages, which support its continued periodic publication as the gold standard for hospital profiling in the program.

Outcomes for youth residential treatment programs using administrative data from the child welfare system: a risk-adjustment application.

PubMed

McMillen, J Curtis; Lee, Bethany R; Jonson-Reid, Melissa

2008-05-01

This study assessed whether administrative data from the public child welfare system could be used to develop risk-adjusted performance reports for residential mental health programs for adolescents. Regression methods were used with 3,759 residential treatment spells for 2,784 children and youth to determine which outcomes could be adequately risk adjusted for case mix. Expected outcomes were created for each residential program given its case mix; then, expected and achieved outcomes were compared. For most programs, achieved results did not differ significantly from expected results for individual outcomes. Overall, outcomes achieved were not impressive. Only one quarter of spells resulted in a youth being maintained in a single less restrictive setting in the year following discharge. Methodological implications of this study suggest further refinements are needed for child welfare administrative data in order to develop risk-adjusted report cards of program performance.

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

PubMed

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death score has many attractive attributes that address the key barriers to adoption of ICU risk adjustment algorithms and performs comparably to existing human-intensive algorithms. Automated risk adjustment algorithms have the potential to obviate known barriers to adoption such as cost-prohibitive licensing fees and significant direct labor costs. Further evaluation is needed to ensure that the level of performance observed in this study could be achieved at independent sites.

Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

2016-08-17

Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at <3% of the hospitals. We believe that policymakers and payers should consider this result when deciding whether to include race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Left Ventricular Mass and Geometry and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Di Tullio, Marco R.; Zwas, Donna R.; Sacco, Ralph L.; Sciacca, Robert R.; Homma, Shunichi

2009-01-01

Background and Purpose Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a risk factor for cardiovascular events, but its effect on ischemic stroke risk is established mainly in whites. The effect of LV geometry on stroke risk has not been defined. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether LVH and LV geometry are independently associated with increased ischemic stroke risk in a multiethnic population. Methods A population-based case-control study was conducted on 394 patients with first ischemic stroke and 413 age-, sex-, and race-ethnicity–matched community control subjects. LV mass was measured by transthoracic echocardiography. LV geometric patterns (normal, concentric remodeling, concentric or eccentric hypertrophy) were identified. Stroke risk associated with LVH and different LV geometric patterns was assessed by conditional logistic regression analysis in the overall group and age, sex, and race-ethnic strata, with adjustment for established stroke risk factors. Results Concentric hypertrophy carried the greatest stroke risk (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0 to 6.2), followed by eccentric hypertrophy (adjusted OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 2.0 to 4.3). Concentric remodeling carried slightly increased stroke risk (adjusted OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.9). Increased LV relative wall thickness was independently associated with stroke after adjustment for LV mass (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.3). Conclusions LVH and abnormal LV geometry are independently associated with increased stroke risk. LVH is strongly associated with ischemic stroke in all age, sex, and race-ethnic subgroups. Increased LV relative wall thickness imparts an increased stroke risk after adjustment for LV mass and is of additional value in stroke risk prediction. PMID:12958319

Animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in Shanghai

PubMed Central

Xu, W-H; Dai, Q; Xiang, Y-B; Zhao, G-M; Zheng, W; Gao, Y-T; Ruan, Z-X; Cheng, J-R; Shu, X-O

2006-01-01

We evaluated animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in a population-based case–control study in Shanghai, China. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to collect the usual dietary habits of 1204 cases and 1212 controls aged 30–69 years between 1997 and 2003. Statistical analyses were based on an unconditional logistic regression model adjusting for potential confounders. High intake of meat and fish was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer, with adjusted odds ratios for the highest vs the lowest quartile groups being 1.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.3–2.2) and 2.4 (1.8–3.1), respectively. The elevated risk was observed for all types of meat and fish intake. Intake of eggs and milk was not related to risk. Cooking methods and doneness levels for meat and fish were not associated with risk, nor did they modify the association with meat and fish consumption. Our study suggests that animal food consumption may play an important role in the aetiology of endometrial cancer, but cooking methods have minimal influence on risk among Chinese women. PMID:17060930

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

PubMed

Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

2006-02-01

A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of risk-adjusted mortality data with an E-O plot and a risk-adjusted p chart is feasible and allows the rapid detection of changes in risk-adjusted outcome of intensive care patients. This complements the centralised national database, which is more archival and comparative in nature.

Impact of task design on task performance and injury risk: case study of a simulated drilling task.

PubMed

Alabdulkarim, Saad; Nussbaum, Maury A; Rashedi, Ehsan; Kim, Sunwook; Agnew, Michael; Gardner, Richard

2017-06-01

Existing evidence is limited regarding the influence of task design on performance and ergonomic risk, or the association between these two outcomes. In a controlled experiment, we constructed a mock fuselage to simulate a drilling task common in aircraft manufacturing, and examined the effect of three levels of workstation adjustability on performance as measured by productivity (e.g. fuselage completion time) and quality (e.g. fuselage defective holes), and ergonomic risk as quantified using two common methods (rapid upper limb assessment and the strain index). The primary finding was that both productivity and quality significantly improved with increased adjustability, yet this occurred only when that adjustability succeeded in reducing ergonomic risk. Supporting the inverse association between ergonomic risk and performance, the condition with highest adjustability created the lowest ergonomic risk and the best performance while there was not a substantial difference in ergonomic risk between the other two conditions, in which performance was also comparable. Practitioner Summary: Findings of this study supported a causal relationship between task design and both ergonomic risk and performance, and that ergonomic risk and performance are inversely associated. While future work is needed under more realistic conditions and a broader population, these results may be useful for task (re)design and to help cost-justify some ergonomic interventions.

Cooking Methods for Red Meats and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Study of U.S. Women.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Zong, Geng; Hu, Frank B; Willett, Walter C; Eisenberg, David M; Sun, Qi

2017-08-01

This study examined different cooking methods for red meats in relation to type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk among U.S. women who consumed red meats regularly (≥2 servings/week). We monitored 59,033 women (1986-2012) aged 30-55 years and free of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer at baseline when information on frequency of different cooking methods for red meats, including broiling, barbequing, roasting, pan-frying, and stewing/boiling, was collected. During 1.24 million person-years of follow-up, we documented 6,206 incident cases of T2D. After multivariate adjustment including red meat cooking methods, total red meat and processed red meat intake were both associated with a monotonically increased T2D risk (both P trend <0.05). After multivariate adjustment including total red meat intake, a higher frequency of broiling, barbequing, and roasting red meats was each independently associated with a higher T2D risk. When comparing ≥2 times/week with <1 time/month, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI of T2D were 1.29 (1.19, 1.40; P trend <0.001) for broiling, 1.23 (1.11, 1.38; P trend <0.001) for barbequing, and 1.11 (1.01, 1.23; P trend = 0.14) for roasting. In contrast, the frequency of stewing/boiling red meats was not associated with T2D risk, and an inverse association was observed for pan-frying frequency and T2D risk. The results remained similar after cooking methods were further mutually adjusted. Independent of total red meat consumption, high-temperature and/or open-flame cooking methods for red meats, especially broiling and barbequing, may further increase diabetes risk among regular meat eaters. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Method of self-harm in adolescents and young adults and risk of subsequent suicide.

PubMed

Beckman, Karin; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor; Waern, Margda; Larsson, Henrik; Runeson, Bo; Dahlin, Marie

2018-03-05

Self-harm is common in youth and an important risk factor for suicide. Certain self-harm methods might indicate a higher risk of suicide. The main aim of this study was to determine whether some methods of self-harm in adolescents (10-17 years) and young adults (18-24 years) are associated with a particularly high risk of suicide. A secondary aim was to ascertain how different self-harm methods might affect the probability of psychiatric follow-up. Five Swedish registers were linked in a national population-based cohort study. All nonfatal self-harm events recorded in specialist health care, excluding psychiatry and primary care services, among 10-24 year olds between 2000 and 2009 were included. Methods were classified as poisoning, cutting/piercing, violent method (gassing, hanging, strangulation/suffocation, drowning, jumping and firearms), other and multiple methods. Hazard Ratios (HR) for suicide were calculated in Cox regression models for each method with poisoning as the reference. Odds Ratios (OR) for psychiatric inpatient care were determined in logistic regression models. Analyses were adjusted for important covariates and stratified by age group and treatment setting (inpatient/outpatient). Among adolescents with initial medical hospitalisation, use of a violent method was associated with a near eightfold increase in HR for suicide compared to self-poisoning in the adjusted analysis [HR 7.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2-19.0]. Among hospitalised young adult women, adjusted HRs were elevated fourfold for both cutting [4.0 (1.9-8.8)] and violent methods [3.9 (1.5-10.6)]. Method of self-harm did not affect suicide risk in young adult men. Adolescents using violent methods had an increased probability of psychiatric inpatient care following initial treatment for self-harm. Violent self-harm requiring medical hospitalisation may signal particularly high risk of future suicide in adolescents (both sexes) and in young adult women. For the latter group this is the case for cutting requiring hospitalisation as well. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may... submission of risk adjustment data. Risk adjustment factors for each payment year are based on risk... factors for affected individuals to determine if adjustments to payments are necessary. Risk adjustment...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may... submission of risk adjustment data. Risk adjustment factors for each payment year are based on risk... factors for affected individuals to determine if adjustments to payments are necessary. Risk adjustment...

Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.

PubMed

Holden, William L

2003-01-01

Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.

Risk of unsafe abortion associated with long-term contraception behaviour: a case control study from Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Arambepola, Carukshi; Rajapaksa, Lalini C

2017-06-29

When faced with an unintended pregnancy, some women choose to undergo an unsafe abortion, while others do not. This choice may depend on long-term contraception that shapes the fertility goals of women, along with many other risk factors. We assessed the risk for unsafe abortion associated with contraceptive practices based on women's long-term behaviour, and its likely modification by the use of different types of contraceptives among women in Sri Lanka. An unmatched case-control study was conducted in nine hospitals among 171 women admitted for care following an unsafe abortion (Cases) and 600 women admitted to same hospitals for delivery of an unintended term pregnancy (Controls). Interviewer-administered-questionnaires assessed their socio-economic, reproductive and fertility (decisions on family size, family completion) characteristics, contraceptive method last used (traditional, modern), reasons for discontinuation/never-use, and contraceptive practices assessed at different time points. Using several regression models, the risk of abortion was assessed for 'non-use' of contraception against 'ineffective use' at conception; for non-use further categorised as 'never-use', 'early-discontinuation' (discontinued before last birth interval) and 'late-discontinuation' (discontinued during last birth interval); and for any interaction between the contraceptive practice and contraceptive method last used among the ever-users of contraception. At conception, 'non-use' of contraception imparted a two-fold risk for abortion against ineffective use (adjusted-OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2-3.2). The abortion risk on 'non-use' varied further according to 'early' (adjusted-OR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1-3.1) and 'late' (adjusted-OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.5-3.6) discontinuation of contraception, but not with 'never-use' (crude-OR = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.6-2.3). Among the ever-users, the risk of abortion varied within each contraceptive practice by their last used contraceptive method and reasons for discontinuation. A significant interaction between modern contraceptives and early discontinuation (adjusted-OR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.1-3.1) demonstrated a seven-fold abortion risk for early discontinuation of modern methods against its ineffective use. In particular, hormonal methods seemed to be responsible for this risk (51.1% cases versus 42.5% controls). Long-term contraceptive practices showed varying risk for abortion, and was further modified by early discontinuation of modern contraceptives. This knowledge should be applied during postnatal visits by public-health staff.

The Influence of Social Adjustment on Normative and Risky Health Behaviors in Emerging Adults With Spina Bifida

PubMed Central

Murray, Caitlin B.; Lennon, Jaclyn M.; Devine, Katie A.; Holmbeck, Grayson N.; Klages, Kimberly; Potthoff, Lauren M.

2015-01-01

Objective To understand the rates of normative and risky health behaviors and the influence of prior and current social adjustment on health risk behaviors in emerging adults with spina bifida (SB). Method These data are part of a larger longitudinal study of youth with SB; at ages 18–19, 50 emerging adults with SB and 60 typically developing (TD) youth participated. Social adjustment was measured at ages 12/13, 14/15, 16/17, and 18/19. Substance use and sexual activity were self-reported by emerging adults. Results The SB group reported similar frequencies (i.e., number of days in the previous month) of cigarette and marijuana use. Fewer individuals with SB reported initiation of both alcohol use (i.e., ever used) and sexual activity (i.e., ever had sex) compared to TD peers. The SB group also reported less frequent alcohol use and fewer sexual partners. Better social adjustment during early adolescence (ages 12/13) predicted more frequent alcohol use and a greater number of sexual partners for all youth. Social adjustment also mediated the effect of group status on health risk behaviors. Conclusions Emerging adults with SB lag behind TD peers in terms of normative initiation of alcohol use and sexual activity. However, this population participates in some risky health behaviors at similar rates compared to their TD peers (e.g., smoking). Youths’ health risk behaviors may be influenced by their level of social adjustment. A challenge for future interventions for this population will be finding methods of improving social functioning without increasing the rate of health risk behavior. PMID:24490647

Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) risk adjuster with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality.

PubMed

Li, Pengxiang; Kim, Michelle M; Doshi, Jalpa A

2010-08-20

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW) 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS-HCC model is preferred over the Charlson and Elixhauser methods if information about the patient's diagnoses prior to the index hospitalization is available and used to code the risk adjusters. However, caution should be exercised in studies evaluating inpatient processes of care and where data on pre-index admission diagnoses are unavailable.

Age adjustment in ecological studies: using a study on arsenic ingestion and bladder cancer as an example.

PubMed

Guo, How-Ran

2011-10-20

Despite its limitations, ecological study design is widely applied in epidemiology. In most cases, adjustment for age is necessary, but different methods may lead to different conclusions. To compare three methods of age adjustment, a study on the associations between arsenic in drinking water and incidence of bladder cancer in 243 townships in Taiwan was used as an example. A total of 3068 cases of bladder cancer, including 2276 men and 792 women, were identified during a ten-year study period in the study townships. Three methods were applied to analyze the same data set on the ten-year study period. The first (Direct Method) applied direct standardization to obtain standardized incidence rate and then used it as the dependent variable in the regression analysis. The second (Indirect Method) applied indirect standardization to obtain standardized incidence ratio and then used it as the dependent variable in the regression analysis instead. The third (Variable Method) used proportions of residents in different age groups as a part of the independent variables in the multiple regression models. All three methods showed a statistically significant positive association between arsenic exposure above 0.64 mg/L and incidence of bladder cancer in men and women, but different results were observed for the other exposure categories. In addition, the risk estimates obtained by different methods for the same exposure category were all different. Using an empirical example, the current study confirmed the argument made by other researchers previously that whereas the three different methods of age adjustment may lead to different conclusions, only the third approach can obtain unbiased estimates of the risks. The third method can also generate estimates of the risk associated with each age group, but the other two are unable to evaluate the effects of age directly.

Functional form and risk adjustment of hospital costs: Bayesian analysis of a Box-Cox random coefficients model.

PubMed

Hollenbeak, Christopher S

2005-10-15

While risk-adjusted outcomes are often used to compare the performance of hospitals and physicians, the most appropriate functional form for the risk adjustment process is not always obvious for continuous outcomes such as costs. Semi-log models are used most often to correct skewness in cost data, but there has been limited research to determine whether the log transformation is sufficient or whether another transformation is more appropriate. This study explores the most appropriate functional form for risk-adjusting the cost of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Data included patients undergoing CABG surgery at four hospitals in the midwest and were fit to a Box-Cox model with random coefficients (BCRC) using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors were computed to perform model comparison of alternative model specifications. Rankings of hospital performance were created from the simulation output and the rankings produced by Bayesian estimates were compared to rankings produced by standard models fit using classical methods. Results suggest that, for these data, the most appropriate functional form is not logarithmic, but corresponds to a Box-Cox transformation of -1. Furthermore, Bayes factors overwhelmingly rejected the natural log transformation. However, the hospital ranking induced by the BCRC model was not different from the ranking produced by maximum likelihood estimates of either the linear or semi-log model. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating vaccine effectiveness against severe influenza in England and Scotland 2011/2012: applying the screening method to data from intensive care surveillance systems.

PubMed

Thomas, H L; Andrews, N; Green, H K; Boddington, N L; Zhao, H; Reynolds, A; McMenamin, J; Pebody, R G

2014-01-01

Methods for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe influenza are not well established. We used the screening method to estimate VE against influenza resulting in intensive care unit (ICU) admission in England and Scotland in 2011/2012. We extracted data on confirmed influenza ICU cases from severe influenza surveillance systems, and obtained their 2011/2012 trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) status from primary care. We compared case vaccine uptake with population vaccine uptake obtained from routine monitoring systems, adjusting for age group, specific risk group, region and week. Of 60 influenza ICU cases reported, vaccination status was available for 56 (93%). Adjusted VE against ICU admission for those aged ≥ 65 years was -10% [95% confidence interval (CI) -207 to 60], consistent with evidence of poor protection from the 2011/2012 TIV in 2011/2012. Adjusted VE for those aged <65 years in risk groups was -296% (95% CI -930 to -52), suggesting significant residual confounding using the screening method in those subject to selective vaccination.

77 FR 17219 - Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Standards Related to Reinsurance, Risk Corridors and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-23

... parts of the risk adjustment process--the risk adjustment model, the calculation of plan average... risk adjustment process. The risk adjustment model calculates individual risk scores. The calculation...'' to mean all data that are used in a risk adjustment model, the calculation of plan average actuarial...

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims.

PubMed

Wennberg, David E; Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Wennberg, John E

2014-04-10

To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Cross sectional analysis. 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n = 5,153,877). The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services--Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare's administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the poverty index, and 0.07 for the visit corrected HCC index, implying that only a modest amount of the variation in spending can be explained by factors most closely related to mortality. Further, once the HCC index is visit corrected it accounts for almost none of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted spending. Health risk adjustment using either the poverty index or the population health index performed substantially better in terms of explaining actual mortality than the indices that relied on diagnoses from administrative databases; the population health index explained the majority of residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality. Owing to the influence of observational intensity on diagnoses from administrative databases, the standard HCC index over-adjusts for regional differences in spending. Research to improve health risk adjustment methods should focus on developing measures of risk that do not depend on observation influenced diagnoses recorded in administrative databases.

Validating a benchmarking tool for audit of early outcomes after operations for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Tighe, D; Sassoon, I; McGurk, M

2017-04-01

INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A-C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores. RESULTS Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34-51%) between the centres. The predictive score allowed imperfect risk adjustment (area under the curve: 0.70), with Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis suggesting good calibration. The Brier score changed from 0.19 for sites A-C to 0.23 when site D was also included, suggesting poor accuracy overall. CONCLUSIONS Marked differences in operative risk and patient case mix captured by the risk adjustment score do not explain all the differences in observed outcomes. Further investigation with different methods is recommended to improve modelling of risk. Morbidity is common, and usually has a major impact on patient recovery, ward occupancy, hospital finances and patient perception of quality of care. We hope comparative audit will highlight good performance and challenge underperformance where it exists.

Quality-of-life-adjusted hazard of death: a formulation of the quality-adjusted life-years model of use in benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Garcia-Hernandez, Alberto

2014-03-01

Although the quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) model is standard in health technology assessment, quantitative methods are less frequent but increasingly used for benefit-risk assessment (BRA) at earlier stages of drug development. A frequent challenge when implementing metrics for BRA is to weigh the importance of effects on a chronic condition against the risk of severe events during the trial. The lifetime component of the QALY model has a counterpart in the BRA context, namely, the risk of dying during the study. A new concept is presented, the hazard of death function that a subject is willing to accept instead of the baseline hazard to improve his or her chronic health status, which we have called the quality-of-life-adjusted hazard of death. It has been proven that if assumptions of the linear QALY model hold, the excess mortality rate tolerated by a subject for a chronic health improvement is inversely proportional to the mean residual life. This result leads to a new representation of the linear QALY model in terms of hazard rate functions and allows utilities obtained by using standard methods involving trade-offs of life duration to be translated into thresholds of tolerated mortality risk during a short period of time, thereby avoiding direct trade-offs using small probabilities of events during the study, which is known to lead to bias and variability. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validating a benchmarking tool for audit of early outcomes after operations for head and neck cancer

PubMed Central

Sassoon, I; McGurk, M

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A–C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores. RESULTS Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34–51%) between the centres. The predictive score allowed imperfect risk adjustment (area under the curve: 0.70), with Hosmer–Lemeshow analysis suggesting good calibration. The Brier score changed from 0.19 for sites A–C to 0.23 when site D was also included, suggesting poor accuracy overall. CONCLUSIONS Marked differences in operative risk and patient case mix captured by the risk adjustment score do not explain all the differences in observed outcomes. Further investigation with different methods is recommended to improve modelling of risk. Morbidity is common, and usually has a major impact on patient recovery, ward occupancy, hospital finances and patient perception of quality of care. We hope comparative audit will highlight good performance and challenge underperformance where it exists. PMID:27917662

Hospital Variation in Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Sepsis Mortality.

PubMed

Ames, Stefanie G; Davis, Billie S; Angus, Derek C; Carcillo, Joseph A; Kahn, Jeremy M

2018-05-01

With continued attention to pediatric sepsis at both the clinical and policy levels, it is important to understand the quality of hospitals in terms of their pediatric sepsis mortality. We sought to develop a method to evaluate hospital pediatric sepsis performance using 30-day risk-adjusted mortality and to assess hospital variation in risk-adjusted sepsis mortality in a large state-wide sample. Retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data. Acute care hospitals in the state of Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2013. Patients between the ages of 0-19 years admitted to a hospital with sepsis defined using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification, diagnosis and procedure codes. None. During the study period, there were 9,013 pediatric sepsis encounters in 153 hospitals. After excluding repeat visits and hospitals with annual patient volumes too small to reliably assess hospital performance, there were 6,468 unique encounters in 24 hospitals. The overall unadjusted mortality rate was 6.5% (range across all hospitals: 1.5-11.9%). The median number of pediatric sepsis cases per hospital was 67 (range across all hospitals: 30-1,858). A hierarchical logistic regression model for 30-day risk-adjusted mortality controlling for patient age, gender, emergency department admission, infection source, presence of organ dysfunction at admission, and presence of chronic complex conditions showed good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.80) and calibration (slope and intercept of calibration plot: 0.95 and -0.01, respectively). The hospital-specific risk-adjusted mortality rates calculated from this model varied minimally, ranging from 6.0% to 7.4%. Although a risk-adjustment model for 30-day pediatric sepsis mortality had good performance characteristics, the use of risk-adjusted mortality rates as a hospital quality measure in pediatric sepsis is not useful due to the low volume of cases at most hospitals. Novel metrics to evaluate the quality of pediatric sepsis care are needed.

Customer-Specific Transaction Risk Management in E-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruch, Markus; Sackmann, Stefan

Increasing potential for turnover in e-commerce is inextricably linked with an increase in risk. Online retailers (e-tailers), aiming for a company-wide value orientation should manage this risk. However, current approaches to risk management either use average retail prices elevated by an overall risk premium or restrict the payment methods offered to customers. Thus, they neglect customer-specific value and risk attributes and leave turnover potentials unconsidered. To close this gap, an innovative valuation model is proposed in this contribution that integrates customer-specific risk and potential turnover. The approach presented evaluates different payment methods using their risk-turnover characteristic, provides a risk-adjusted decision basis for selecting payment methods and allows e-tailers to derive automated risk management decisions per customer and transaction without reducing turnover potential.

Outcomes of deliveries by family physicians or obstetricians: a population-based cohort study using an instrumental variable

PubMed Central

Aubrey-Bassler, Kris; Cullen, Richard M.; Simms, Alvin; Asghari, Shabnam; Crane, Joan; Wang, Peizhong Peter; Godwin, Marshall

2015-01-01

Background: Previous research has suggested that obstetric outcomes are similar for deliveries by family physicians and obstetricians, but many of these studies were small, and none of them adjusted for unmeasured selection bias. We compared obstetric outcomes between these provider types using an econometric method designed to adjust for unobserved confounding. Methods: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study of all Canadian (except Quebec) hospital births with delivery by family physicians and obstetricians at more than 20 weeks gestational age, with birth weight greater than 500 g, between Apr. 1, 2006, and Mar. 31, 2009. The primary outcomes were the relative risks of in-hospital perinatal death and a composite of maternal mortality and major morbidity assessed with multivariable logistic regression and instrumental variable–adjusted multivariable regression. Results: After exclusions, there were 3600 perinatal deaths and 14 394 cases of maternal morbidity among 799 823 infants and 793 053 mothers at 390 hospitals. For deliveries by family physicians v. obstetricians, the relative risk of perinatal mortality was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85–1.14) and of maternal morbidity was 0.81 (95% CI 0.70–0.94) according to logistic regression. The respective relative risks were 0.97 (95% CI 0.58–1.64) and 1.13 (95% CI 0.65–1.95) according to instrumental variable methods. Interpretation: After adjusting for both observed and unobserved confounders, we found a similar risk of perinatal mortality and adverse maternal outcome for obstetric deliveries by family physicians and obstetricians. Whether there are differences between these groups for other outcomes remains to be seen. PMID:26303244

The Effect of Adding Comorbidities to Current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Central-Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection Risk-Adjustment Methodology.

PubMed

Jackson, Sarah S; Leekha, Surbhi; Magder, Laurence S; Pineles, Lisa; Anderson, Deverick J; Trick, William E; Woeltje, Keith F; Kaye, Keith S; Stafford, Kristen; Thom, Kerri; Lowe, Timothy J; Harris, Anthony D

2017-09-01

BACKGROUND Risk adjustment is needed to fairly compare central-line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates between hospitals. Until 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) methodology adjusted CLABSI rates only by type of intensive care unit (ICU). The 2017 CDC models also adjust for hospital size and medical school affiliation. We hypothesized that risk adjustment would be improved by including patient demographics and comorbidities from electronically available hospital discharge codes. METHODS Using a cohort design across 22 hospitals, we analyzed data from ICU patients admitted between January 2012 and December 2013. Demographics and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) discharge codes were obtained for each patient, and CLABSIs were identified by trained infection preventionists. Models adjusting only for ICU type and for ICU type plus patient case mix were built and compared using discrimination and standardized infection ratio (SIR). Hospitals were ranked by SIR for each model to examine and compare the changes in rank. RESULTS Overall, 85,849 ICU patients were analyzed and 162 (0.2%) developed CLABSI. The significant variables added to the ICU model were coagulopathy, paralysis, renal failure, malnutrition, and age. The C statistics were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.51-0.59) for the ICU-type model and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) for the ICU-type plus patient case-mix model. When the hospitals were ranked by adjusted SIRs, 10 hospitals (45%) changed rank when comorbidity was added to the ICU-type model. CONCLUSIONS Our risk-adjustment model for CLABSI using electronically available comorbidities demonstrated better discrimination than did the CDC model. The CDC should strongly consider comorbidity-based risk adjustment to more accurately compare CLABSI rates across hospitals. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:1019-1024.

Monitoring risk-adjusted medical outcomes allowing for changes over time.

PubMed

Steiner, Stefan H; Mackay, R Jock

2014-10-01

We consider the problem of monitoring and comparing medical outcomes, such as surgical performance, over time. Performance is subject to change due to a variety of reasons including patient heterogeneity, learning, deteriorating skills due to aging, etc. For instance, we expect inexperienced surgeons to improve their skills with practice. We propose a graphical method to monitor surgical performance that incorporates risk adjustment to account for patient heterogeneity. The procedure gives more weight to recent outcomes and down-weights the influence of outcomes further in the past. The chart is clinically interpretable as it plots an estimate of the failure rate for a "standard" patient. The chart also includes a measure of uncertainty in this estimate. We can implement the method using historical data or start from scratch. As the monitoring proceeds, we can base the estimated failure rate on a known risk model or use the observed outcomes to update the risk model as time passes. We illustrate the proposed method with an example from cardiac surgery. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk after adjustment for known risk factors: The EnvIMS study

PubMed Central

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Cortese, Marianna; Holmøy, Trygve; Kampman, Margitta T; Magalhaes, Sandra; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Wolfson, Christina; Pugliatti, Maura

2016-01-01

Background: Several recent studies have found a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among people with a low level of education. This has been suggested to reflect an effect of smoking and lower vitamin D status in the social class associated with lower levels of education. Objective: The objective of this paper is to investigate the association between level of education and MS risk adjusting for the known risk factors smoking, infectious mononucleosis, indicators of vitamin D levels and body size. Methods: Within the case-control study on Environmental Factors In MS (EnvIMS), 953 MS patients and 1717 healthy controls from Norway reported educational level and history of exposure to putative environmental risk factors. Results: Higher level of education were associated with decreased MS risk (p trend = 0.001) with an OR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41–0.68) when comparing those with the highest and lowest level of education. This association was only moderately reduced after adjusting for known risk factors (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44–0.83). The estimates remained similar when cases with disease onset before age 28 were excluded. Conclusion: These findings suggest that factors related to lower socioeconomic status other than established risk factors are associated with MS risk. PMID:26014605

Offspring psychopathology following preconception, prenatal, and postnatal maternal bereavement stress

PubMed Central

Class, Quetzal A.; Abel, Kathryn M.; Khashan, Ali S.; Rickert, Martin E.; Dalman, Christina; Larsson, Henrik; Hultman, Christina M.; Långström, Niklas; Lichtenstein, Paul; D’Onofrio, Brian M.

2013-01-01

Background Preconception, prenatal, and postnatal maternal stress are associated with increased offspring psychopathology, but findings are inconsistent and need replication. We estimated associations between maternal bereavement stress and offspring autism spectrum disorder (ASD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, suicide attempt, and completed suicide. Methods Using Swedish registers, we conducted the largest population-based study to date examining associations between stress exposure in 738,144 offspring born 1992–2000 for childhood outcomes and 2,155,221 offspring born 1973–1997 for adult outcomes with follow-up through 2009. Maternal stress was defined as death of a first degree relative during 6 months before conception, across pregnancy, or the first two postnatal years. Cox proportional survival analyses were used to obtain hazard ratios (HR) in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Results Marginal increased risk of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia following preconception bereavement stress was not significant. Third trimester prenatal stress increased risk of ASD (adjusted HR=1.58, 95% CI: 1.15–2.17) and ADHD (adjusted HR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.04–1.66). First postnatal year stress increased risk for offspring suicide attempt (adjusted HR=1.13, 95% CI: 1.02–1.25) and completed suicide (adjusted HR=1.51, 95% CI: 1.08–2.11). Bereavement stress during the second postnatal year increased risk of ASD (adjusted HR=1.30, 95% CI: 1.09–1.55). Conclusions Further research is needed on associations between preconception stress and psychopathological outcomes. Prenatal bereavement stress increases risk of offspring ASD and ADHD. Postnatal bereavement stress moderately increases risk of offspring suicide attempt, completed suicide, and ASD. Smaller previous studies may have overestimated associations between early stress and psychopathological outcomes. PMID:23591021

Associations between lifestyle and air pollution exposure: Potential for confounding in large administrative data cohorts.

PubMed

Strak, Maciej; Janssen, Nicole; Beelen, Rob; Schmitz, Oliver; Karssenberg, Derek; Houthuijs, Danny; van den Brink, Carolien; Dijst, Martin; Brunekreef, Bert; Hoek, Gerard

2017-07-01

Cohorts based on administrative data have size advantages over individual cohorts in investigating air pollution risks, but often lack in-depth information on individual risk factors related to lifestyle. If there is a correlation between lifestyle and air pollution, omitted lifestyle variables may result in biased air pollution risk estimates. Correlations between lifestyle and air pollution can be induced by socio-economic status affecting both lifestyle and air pollution exposure. Our overall aim was to assess potential confounding by missing lifestyle factors on air pollution mortality risk estimates. The first aim was to assess associations between long-term exposure to several air pollutants and lifestyle factors. The second aim was to assess whether these associations were sensitive to adjustment for individual and area-level socioeconomic status (SES), and whether they differed between subgroups of the population. Using the obtained air pollution-lifestyle associations and indirect adjustment methods, our third aim was to investigate the potential bias due to missing lifestyle information on air pollution mortality risk estimates in administrative cohorts. We used a recent Dutch national health survey of 387,195 adults to investigate the associations of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , PM 2.5-10 , PM 2.5 absorbance, OP DTT, OP ESR and NO 2 annual average concentrations at the residential address from land use regression models with individual smoking habits, alcohol consumption, physical activity and body mass index. We assessed the associations with and without adjustment for neighborhood and individual SES characteristics typically available in administrative data cohorts. We illustrated the effect of including lifestyle information on the air pollution mortality risk estimates in administrative cohort studies using a published indirect adjustment method. Current smoking and alcohol consumption were generally positively associated with air pollution. Physical activity and overweight were negatively associated with air pollution. The effect estimates were small (mostly <5% of the air pollutant standard deviations). Direction and magnitude of the associations depended on the pollutant, use of continuous vs. categorical scale of the lifestyle variable, and level of adjustment for individual and area-level SES. Associations further differed between subgroups (age, sex) in the population. Despite the small associations between air pollution and smoking intensity, indirect adjustment resulted in considerable changes of air pollution risk estimates for cardiovascular and especially lung cancer mortality. Individual lifestyle-related risk factors were weakly associated with long-term exposure to air pollution in the Netherlands. Indirect adjustment for missing lifestyle factors in administrative data cohort studies may substantially affect air pollution mortality risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lifestyle-Adjusted Function: Variation beyond BADL and IADL Competencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albert, Steven M.; Bear-Lehman, Jane; Burkhardt, Ann

2009-01-01

Purpose: Using the Activity Card Sort (ACS), we derived a measure of lifestyle-adjusted function and examined the distribution of this measure and its correlates in a community sample of older adults at risk for disability transitions. Design and Methods: Participants in the Sources of Independence in the Elderly project (n = 375) completed the…

Living Near Major Traffic Roads and Risk of Deep Vein Thrombosis

PubMed Central

Baccarelli, Andrea; Martinelli, Ida; Pegoraro, Valeria; Melly, Steven; Grillo, Paolo; Zanobetti, Antonella; Hou, Lifang; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio; Schwartz, Joel

2010-01-01

Background Particulate air pollution has been consistently linked to increased risk of arterial cardiovascular disease. Few data on air pollution exposure and risk of venous thrombosis are available. We investigated whether living near major traffic roads increases the risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), using distance from roads as a proxy for traffic exposure. Methods and Results Between 1995-2005, we examined 663 patients with DVT of the lower limbs and 859 age-matched controls from cities with population>15,000 inhabitants in Lombardia Region, Italy. We assessed distance from residential addresses to the nearest major traffic road using geographic information system methodology. The risk of DVT was estimated from logistic regression models adjusting for multiple clinical and environmental covariates. The risk of DVT was increased (Odds Ratio [OR]=1.33; 95% CI 1.03-1.71; p=0.03 in age-adjusted models; OR=1.47; 95%CI 1.10-1.96; p=0.008 in models adjusted for multiple covariates) for subjects living near a major traffic road (3 meters, 10th centile of the distance distribution) compared to those living farther away (reference distance of 245 meters, 90th centile). The increase in DVT risk was approximately linear over the observed distance range (from 718 to 0 meters), and was not modified after adjusting for background levels of particulate matter (OR=1.47; 95%CI 1.11-1.96; p=0.008 for 10th vs. 90th distance centile in models adjusting for area levels of particulate matter <10 μm in aerodynamic diameter [PM10] in the year before diagnosis). Conclusions Living near major traffic roads is associated with increased risk of DVT. PMID:19506111

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

Total Homocysteine Is Associated With White Matter Hyperintensity Volume

PubMed Central

Wright, Clinton B.; Paik, Myunghee C.; Brown, Truman R.; Stabler, Sally P.; Allen, Robert H.; Sacco, Ralph L.; DeCarli, Charles

2005-01-01

Background Total homocysteine (tHcy) has been implicated as a risk factor for stroke and dementia, but the mechanism is unclear. White matter hyperintensities may be a risk factor for both, but studies of the relationship between tHcy and quantitative measures of white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) are lacking, especially in minority populations. Methods A community-based sample of 259 subjects with baseline tHcy levels underwent pixel-based quantitative measurement of WMHV. We examined the relationship between tHcy and WMHV adjusting for age, sociodemographics, vascular risk factors, and B12 deficiency. Results Higher levels of tHcy were associated with WMHV adjusting for sociodemographics and vascular risk factors. Conclusions These cross-sectional data provide evidence that tHcy is a risk factor for white matter damage. PMID:15879345

Drugs Used in the Treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Relationship between Current Use and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Rho, Young Hee; Oeser, Annette; Chung, Cecilia P; Milne, Ginger L; Stein, C Michael

2009-01-01

Objectives Drugs used for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have the potential to affect cardiovascular risk factors. There is concern that corticosteroids, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and COX-2 inhibitors could affect cardiovascular risk adversely, while drugs such as the antimalarial, hydroxychloroquine, may have beneficial effects. However, there is limited information about cardiovascular risk factors in patients with RA receiving different drugs. Methods We measured cardiovascular risk factors including systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum HDL and LDL cholesterol, glucose and homocysteine concentrations and urinary F2-isoprostane excretion in 169 patients with RA. Risk factors were compared according to current use of corticosteroids, methotrexate, antimalarials, NSAIDs, COX-2 inhibitors, leflunomide and TNF-α blockers. Comparisons were adjusted for age, sex, race, disease activity (DAS28 score), current hypertension, diabetes, smoking status and statin use. Results No cardiovascular risk factor differed significantly among current users and non-users of NSAIDs, COX-2 inhibitors, methotrexate and TNF-α blockers. Serum HDL cholesterol concentrations were significantly higher in patients currently receiving corticosteroids (42.2 ± 10.5 vs. 50.2 ± 15.3 mg/dL, adjusted P < 0.001). Diastolic blood pressure (75.9 ± 11.2 vs. 72.0 ± 9.1 mm Hg, adjusted P = 0.02), serum LDL cholesterol (115.6 ± 34.7 vs. 103.7 ± 27.8 mg/dL, adjusted P = 0.03) and triglyceride concentrations (157.7 ± 202.6 vs. 105.5 ± 50.5 mg/dL, adjusted P = 0.03) were significantly lower in patients taking antimalarial drugs. Plasma glucose was significantly lower in current lefunomide users (93.0 ± 19.2 vs. 83.6 ± 13.4 mg/dL, adjusted P = 0.006). Conclusions In a cross-sectional setting drugs used to treat RA did not have major adverse effects on cardiovascular risk factors and use of antimalarials was associated with beneficial lipid profiles. PMID:19684849

Effect of Tubal Sterilization Technique on Risk of Serous Ovarian and Primary Peritoneal Carcinoma

PubMed Central

LESSARD-ANDERSON, Collette R.; HANDLOGTEN, Kathryn S.; MOLITOR, Rochelle J.; DOWDY, Sean C.; CLIBY, William A.; WEAVER, Amy L.; SAUVER, Jennifer ST.; BAKKUM-GAMEZ, Jamie N.

2014-01-01

Objective To determine the effect of excisional tubal sterilization on subsequent development of serous epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) or primary peritoneal cancer (PPC). Methods We performed a population-based, nested case-control study using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. We identified all patients with a diagnosis of serous EOC or PPC from 1966 through 2009. Each case was age-matched to 2 controls without either diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% CIs were estimated from conditional logistic regression models. Models were adjusted for prior hysterectomy, prior salpingo-oophorectomy, oral contraceptive use, endometriosis, infertility, gravidity, and parity. Results In total, we identified 194 cases of serous EOC and PPC during the study period and matched them with 388 controls (mean [SD] age, 61.4 [15.2] years). Fourteen cases (7.2%) and 46 controls (11.9%) had undergone tubal sterilization. Adjusted risk of serous EOC or PPC was slightly lower after any tubal sterilization (OR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.29–1.17]; P=.13). The rate of excisional tubal sterilization was lower in cases than controls (2.6% vs 6.4%). Adjusted risk of serous EOC and PPC was decreased by 64% after excisional tubal sterilization (OR, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.13–1.02]; P=.054) compared with those without sterilization or with nonexcisional tubal sterilization. Conclusions We present a population-based investigation of the effects of excisional tubal sterilization on the risk of serous EOC and PPC. Excisional methods may confer greater risk reduction than other sterilization methods. PMID:25316178

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

PubMed

Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

2018-01-01

Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

PubMed Central

Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

Pricing strategies for capitated delivery systems

PubMed Central

Gruenberg, Leonard; Wallack, Stanley S.; Tompkins, Christopher P.

1986-01-01

This article discusses alternative methods for establishing a fairer pricing mechanism for Medicare recipients who enroll in health maintenance organizations and other competitive medical plans. The current method, based upon the adjusted average per capita cost, is inadequate because it fails to adjust premium levels for differences in health status; it establishes undesirable incentives that may lead to underservice, and it is tied to costs in the fee-for-service system. Alternative methods would incorporate health status, have Medicare share the risk with HMO's, and base payment on HMO experience. PMID:10311925

[Risk adjusted assessment of quality of perinatal centers - results of perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance in Saxonia].

PubMed

Koch, R; Gmyrek, D; Vogtmann, Ch

2005-12-01

The weak point of the country-wide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance as a tool for evaluation of achievements of a distinct clinic, is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case-mix of patients. Therefore, that approach can not result in a reliable bench marking. To adjust the results of quality assessment of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal data base of 12.783 newborns of the saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2000 was analyzed. 4 relevant quality indicators of newborn outcome -- a) severe intraventricular hemorrhage in preterm infants < 1500 g, b) death in hospital of preterm infants < 1500 g, c) death in newborns with birth weight > 2500 g and d) hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy -- were targeted to find out specific risk predictors by considering 26 risk factors. A logistic regression model was used to develop the risk predictors. Risk predictors for the 4 quality indicators could be described by 3 - 9 out of 26 analyzed risk factors. The AUC (ROC)-values for these quality indicators were 82, 89, 89 and 89 %, what signifies their reliability. Using the new specific predictors for calculation the risk adjusted incidence rates of quality indicator yielded in some remarkable changes. The apparent differences in the outcome criteria of analyzed hospitals were found to be much less pronounced. The application of the proposed method for risk adjustment of quality indicators makes it possible to perform a more objective comparison of neonatal outcome criteria between different hospitals or regions.

Social participation and coronary heart disease risk in a large prospective study of UK women

PubMed Central

Balkwill, Angela; Canoy, Dexter; Reeves, Gillian K; Green, Jane; Beral, Valerie; Cairns, Benjamin J

2015-01-01

Background Participation in social activities is thought to prevent heart disease, but evidence is inconclusive. Design We assessed whether participating in social activities reduces the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a large prospective study of 735,159 middle-aged UK women. Methods Women reported their participation in eight social activities (religious group, voluntary work, adult education, art/craft/music, dancing, sports club, yoga, bingo) and were followed for first CHD event (hospital admission or death) over the next 8.6 years. Cox regression models were used to estimate relative risks for CHD incidence by participation in each and in any of the social activities. Results After adjustment for age and region only, every activity except bingo was associated with a reduced risk of CHD (n = 30,756 cases in total). However, after additional adjustment for 11 factors (deprivation, education, smoking, physical activity, body mass index, alcohol, marital status, self-rated health, happiness, hypertension, diabetes), every relative risk estimate moved close to 1.0. For example, for participation in any of the activities compared with none, the relative risk adjusted for age and region only was 0.83 (99% confidence interval 0.81–0.86), but changed to 1.06 (99% confidence interval 1.02–1.09) after additional adjustment. Adjustment for education, self-rated health, smoking and physical activity attenuated the associations most strongly. Residual confounding and other unmeasured factors may well account for any small remaining associations. Conclusions Associations between participation in various social activities and CHD risk appear to be largely or wholly due to confounding by personal characteristics of the participants. PMID:26416995

Mucosal Healing and the Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease or Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Celiac Disease; A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Lebwohl, Benjamin; Emilsson, Louise; Fröbert, Ole; Einstein, Andrew J.; Green, Peter H. R.; Ludvigsson, Jonas F.

2015-01-01

Background Patients with celiac disease (CD), characterized histologically by villous atrophy (VA) of the small intestine, have an increased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and atrial fibrillation (AF), risks that persist for years after commencing the gluten-free diet. It is unknown whether persistent VA on follow-up biopsy, rather than mucosal healing, affects the risk of IHD or AF. Methods We identified patients with histologic evidence of CD diagnosed at all 28 pathology departments in Sweden. Among patients who underwent a follow-up small intestinal biopsy, we compared patients with persistent VA to those who showed histologic improvement, with regard to the development of IHD (angina pectoris or myocardial infarction) or AF. Results Among patients with CD and a follow-up biopsy (n = 7,440), the median age at follow-up biopsy was 25 years, with 1,063 (14%) patients who were ≥60 years at the time of follow-up biopsy. Some 196 patients developed IHD and 205 patients developed AF. After adjusting for age, gender, duration of CD, calendar period, and educational attainment, there was no significant effect of persistent VA on IHD (adjusted HR 0.97; 95%CI 0.73–1.30). Adjusting for diabetes had a negligible effect (adjusted HR 0.98; 95%CI 0.73–1.31). There was no significant association between persistent VA and the risk of AF (adjusted HR 0.98; 95%CI 0.74–1.30). Conclusions In this population-based study of patients with CD, persistent VA on follow-up biopsy was not associated with an increased risk of IHD or AF. Failed mucosal healing does not influence the risk of these cardiac events. PMID:25635403

The Representation of Fathers by Children of Depressed Mothers: Refining the Meaning of Parentification in High-Risk Samples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woolgar, Matthew; Murray, Lynne

2010-01-01

Background: Children's representations of mothers in doll-play are associated with child adjustment. Despite the importance of fathers for children's adjustment, especially in the context of maternal psychopathology, few studies have considered children's representations of their fathers. Method: We examined the portrayal of fathers by 5-year-old…

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Setting Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare’s administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Results Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the poverty index, and 0.07 for the visit corrected HCC index, implying that only a modest amount of the variation in spending can be explained by factors most closely related to mortality. Further, once the HCC index is visit corrected it accounts for almost none of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted spending. Conclusion Health risk adjustment using either the poverty index or the population health index performed substantially better in terms of explaining actual mortality than the indices that relied on diagnoses from administrative databases; the population health index explained the majority of residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality. Owing to the influence of observational intensity on diagnoses from administrative databases, the standard HCC index over-adjusts for regional differences in spending. Research to improve health risk adjustment methods should focus on developing measures of risk that do not depend on observation influenced diagnoses recorded in administrative databases. PMID:24721838

Evaluating diagnosis-based risk-adjustment methods in a population with spinal cord dysfunction.

PubMed

Warner, Grace; Hoenig, Helen; Montez, Maria; Wang, Fei; Rosen, Amy

2004-02-01

To examine performance of models in predicting health care utilization for individuals with spinal cord dysfunction. Regression models compared 2 diagnosis-based risk-adjustment methods, the adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs). To improve prediction, we added to our model: (1) spinal cord dysfunction-specific diagnostic information, (2) limitations in self-care function, and (3) both 1 and 2. Models were replicated in 3 populations. Samples from 3 populations: (1) 40% of veterans using Veterans Health Administration services in fiscal year 1997 (FY97) (N=1,046,803), (2) veteran sample with spinal cord dysfunction identified by codes from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modifications (N=7666), and (3) veteran sample identified in Veterans Affairs Spinal Cord Dysfunction Registry (N=5888). Not applicable. Inpatient, outpatient, and total days of care in FY97. The DCG models (R(2) range,.22-.38) performed better than ACG models (R(2) range,.04-.34) for all outcomes. Spinal cord dysfunction-specific diagnostic information improved prediction more in the ACG model than in the DCG model (R(2) range for ACG,.14-.34; R(2) range for DCG,.24-.38). Information on self-care function slightly improved performance (R(2) range increased from 0 to.04). The DCG risk-adjustment models predicted health care utilization better than ACG models. ACG model prediction was improved by adding information.

Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as “practically impossible”, and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Methods Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Results Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Conclusions Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons. PMID:24168424

Not All Those Who Wander Are Lost: Examining the Impact of Sojourner Adjustment and Drinking Motives on Alcohol Consequences Experienced by Americans Studying in Foreign Countries

PubMed Central

Pedersen, Eric R.; Neighbors, Clayton; Lee, Christine M.; Larimer, Mary E.

2012-01-01

Objective American students studying in foreign countries represent a unique group at risk for increased and problematic drinking. Examination of risk and protective factors for negative alcohol-related consequences can lead to the development of efficacious preventive interventions for reducing high-risk drinking while abroad. The present study examined the relationship between sojourner adjustment (i.e., the sociocultural and psychological adjustment of short-term residents in foreign environments), drinking motives, and alcohol-related consequences. Method Participants were 248 college students (81% women) who recently completed study-abroad trips and completed online surveys about their drinking motives and behavior, alcohol-related consequences, and sojourner adjustment. Results In general, positive sojourner adjustment (i.e., social interaction with host nationals, language development and use, and host culture identification) was protective against negative consequences, whereas negative sojourner adjustment (i.e., social interaction with co-nationals and homesickness/feeling out of place) was associated with increased reporting of consequences. Unexpectedly, the positive sojourner adjustment factor of cultural understanding and participation was associated with greater alcohol-related consequences. Social motives for drinking also predicted consequences. Drinking motives moderated several of the relationships between sojourner adjustment and consequences. Conclusions Interest in and adoption of the host country culture may protect against problematic alcohol use; however, this may vary based on students' reasons for drinking. These findings support the need for further examination of sojourner adjustment in college students abroad and indicate potential areas for development of preventive interventions. PMID:23036220

Haloacetic acids in drinking water and risk for stillbirth

PubMed Central

King, W; Dodds, L; Allen, A; Armson, B; Fell, D; Nimrod, C

2005-01-01

Aims: To investigate the effects of haloacetic acid (HAA) compounds in drinking water on stillbirth risk. Methods: A population based case-control study was conducted in Nova Scotia and Eastern Ontario, Canada. Estimates of daily exposure to total and specific HAAs were based on household water samples and questionnaire information on water consumption at home and work. Results: The analysis included 112 stillbirth cases and 398 live birth controls. In analysis without adjustment for total THM exposure, a relative risk greater than 2 was observed for an intermediate exposure category for total HAA and dichloroacetic acid measures. After adjustment for total THM exposure, the risk estimates for intermediate exposure categories were diminished, the relative risk associated with the highest category was in the direction of a protective effect, and all confidence intervals included the null value. Conclusions: No association was observed between HAA exposures and stillbirth risk after controlling for THM exposures. PMID:15657195

Vascular Disease, ESRD, and Death: Interpreting Competing Risk Analyses

PubMed Central

Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989–1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20–2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors. PMID:22859747

Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

2012-10-01

Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

CD8+ T cells and Risk for Bacterial Pneumonia and All-Cause Mortality Among HIV-infected Women

PubMed Central

Gohil, Shruti; Heo, Moonseong; Schoenbaum, Ellie; Celentano, David; Pirofski, Liise-anne

2012-01-01

Background Bacterial pneumonia risk is disproportionately high among those infected with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). This risk is present across all CD4+ T cell levels (TCL), suggesting additional factors govern susceptibility. This study examines CD8+ TCL and risk for HIV-associated bacterial pneumonia and all-cause mortality. Methods Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were obtained for 885 HIV-infected (HIV+) women enrolled in the HIV Epidemiologic Research Study (HERS). Bacterial pneumonia cases were identified using clinical, microbiologic, and radiographic criteria. CD8+ TCLs were assessed at 6-month intervals. Statistical methods included Cox proportional hazards regression modeling and covariate-adjusted survival estimates. Results Relative to a referent CD8+ TCL 401–800 cells/mm3, risk for bacterial pneumonia was significantly higher when CD8+ TCLs were ≤ 400 (hazard ratio 1.65, p=0.017, 95% CI 1.10–2.49), after adjusting for age, CD4+ TCL, viral load, and antiretroviral use. There was also a significantly higher risk of death when CD8+ TCLs were ≤ 400 cells/mm3 (hazard ratio 1.45, p=0.04, 95% CI 1.02–2.06). Covariate-adjusted survival estimates revealed shorter time to pneumonia and death in this CD8+ TCL category and the overall association of the categorized CD8+TCL with bacterial pneumonia and all-cause mortality were each statistically significant (p=0.017 and p<0.0001, respectively). Conclusions CD8+ TCL ≤ 400 cells/mm3 was associated with increased risk for pneumonia and all-cause mortality in HIV-infected women in the HERS Cohort, suggesting that CD8+ TCL could serve as an adjunctive biomarker of pneumonia risk and mortality in HIV-infected individuals. PMID:22334070

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... issuers offering risk adjustment covered plans in the State comply with data privacy and security... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340... CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program § 153.340 Data collection under risk...

45 CFR 153.365 - General oversight requirements for State-operated risk adjustment programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... risk adjustment programs. 153.365 Section 153.365 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program...

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

PubMed

Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

2018-01-22

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

Symptoms of depression and all-cause mortality in farmers, a cohort study: the HUNT study, Norway

PubMed Central

Letnes, Jon Magne; Hilt, Bjørn; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Krokstad, Steinar

2016-01-01

Objectives To explore all-cause mortality and the association between symptoms of depression and all-cause mortality in farmers compared with other occupational groups, using a prospective cohort design. Methods We included adult participants with a known occupation from the second wave of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Helseundersøkelsen i Nord-Trøndelag 2 (HUNT2) 1995–1997), Norway. Complete information on emigration and death from all causes was obtained from the National Registries. We used the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to measure symptoms of depression. We compared farmers to 4 other occupational groups. Our baseline study population comprised 32 618 participants. Statistical analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards models. Results The estimated mortality risk in farmers was lower than in all other occupations combined, with a sex and age-adjusted HR (0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.00). However, farmers had an 11% increased age-adjusted and sex-adjusted mortality risk compared with the highest ranked socioeconomic group (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.25). In farmers, symptoms of depression were associated with a 13% increase in sex-adjusted and age-adjusted mortality risk (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.45). Compared with other occupations this was the lowest HR, also after adjusting for education, marital status, long-lasting limiting somatic illness and lifestyle factors (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.39). Conclusions Farmers had lower all-cause mortality compared with the other occupational groups combined. Symptoms of depression were associated with an increased mortality risk in farmers, but the risk increase was smaller compared with the other occupational groups. PMID:27188811

Real time monitoring of risk-adjusted paediatric cardiac surgery outcomes using variable life-adjusted display: implementation in three UK centres

PubMed Central

Pagel, Christina; Utley, Martin; Crowe, Sonya; Witter, Thomas; Anderson, David; Samson, Ray; McLean, Andrew; Banks, Victoria; Tsang, Victor; Brown, Katherine

2013-01-01

Objective To implement routine in-house monitoring of risk-adjusted 30-day mortality following paediatric cardiac surgery. Design Collaborative monitoring software development and implementation in three specialist centres. Patients and methods Analyses incorporated 2 years of data routinely audited by the National Institute of Cardiac Outcomes Research (NICOR). Exclusion criteria were patients over 16 or undergoing non-cardiac or only catheter procedures. We applied the partial risk adjustment in surgery (PRAiS) risk model for death within 30 days following surgery and generated variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts for each centre. These were shared with each clinical team and feedback was sought. Results Participating centres were Great Ormond Street Hospital, Evelina Children's Hospital and The Royal Hospital for Sick Children in Glasgow. Data captured all procedures performed between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2011. This incorporated 2490 30-day episodes of care, 66 of which were associated with a death within 30 days.The VLAD charts generated for each centre displayed trends in outcomes benchmarked to recent national outcomes. All centres ended the 2-year period within four deaths from what would be expected. The VLAD charts were shared in multidisciplinary meetings and clinical teams reported that they were a useful addition to existing quality assurance initiatives. Each centre is continuing to use the prototype software to monitor their in-house surgical outcomes. Conclusions Timely and routine monitoring of risk-adjusted mortality following paediatric cardiac surgery is feasible. Close liaison with hospital data managers as well as clinicians was crucial to the success of the project. PMID:23564473

The Long and Short Term Impact of Elevated Body Mass Index on Risk of New Atrial Fibrillation in the Women’s Health Study

PubMed Central

Tedrow, Usha B; Conen, David; Ridker, Paul M; Cook, Nancy R; Koplan, Bruce A; Manson, JoAnn E; Buring, Julie E; Albert, Christine M

2010-01-01

Objectives To characterize the relationship between changes in body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large cohort of women. Background Obesity and AF are increasing public health problems. The importance of dynamic obesity-associated AF risk is uncertain, and mediators are not well characterized. Methods Cases of AF were confirmed by medical record review in 34,309 participants in the Women’s Health Study. Baseline and updated measures of BMI were obtained from periodic questionnaires. Results Over 12.9 +/− 1.9 years of follow-up, 834 AF events were confirmed. BMI was linearly associated with AF risk, with a 4.7% (95% CI 3.4, 6.1, p<0.0001) increase in risk with each kg/m2. Adjustment for inflammatory markers minimally attenuated this risk. When updated measures of BMI were utilized to estimate dynamic risk, overweight (HR 1.22 95%CI 1.02, 1.45, p=0.03) and obesity (HR 1.65 95%CI 1.36, 2.00, p<0.0001) were associated with adjusted short term elevations in AF risk. Participants becoming obese during the first 60 months had a 41% adjusted increase in risk of developing AF (p=0.02) compared to those maintaining BMI <30 kg/m2. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased over time. The adjusted proportion of incident AF attributable to short term elevations in BMI was substantial (18.3%). Conclusions In this population of apparently healthy women, BMI was associated with short and long term elevations in AF risk, accounting for a large proportion of incident AF independent of traditional risk factors. A strategy of weight control may reduce the increasing incidence of AF. PMID:20488302

Improving Causal Inferences in Meta-analyses of Longitudinal Studies: Spanking as an Illustration.

PubMed

Larzelere, Robert E; Gunnoe, Marjorie Lindner; Ferguson, Christopher J

2018-05-24

To evaluate and improve the validity of causal inferences from meta-analyses of longitudinal studies, two adjustments for Time-1 outcome scores and a temporally backwards test are demonstrated. Causal inferences would be supported by robust results across both adjustment methods, distinct from results run backwards. A systematic strategy for evaluating potential confounds is also introduced. The methods are illustrated by assessing the impact of spanking on subsequent externalizing problems (child age: 18 months to 11 years). Significant results indicated a small risk or a small benefit of spanking, depending on the adjustment method. These meta-analytic methods are applicable for research on alternatives to spanking and other developmental science topics. The underlying principles can also improve causal inferences in individual studies. © 2018 Society for Research in Child Development.

Assessing risk-adjustment approaches under non-random selection.

PubMed

Luft, Harold S; Dudley, R Adams

2004-01-01

Various approaches have been proposed to adjust for differences in enrollee risk in health plans. Because risk-selection strategies may have different effects on enrollment, we simulated three types of selection--dumping, skimming, and stinting. Concurrent diagnosis-based risk adjustment, and a hybrid using concurrent adjustment for about 8% of the cases and prospective adjustment for the rest, perform markedly better than prospective or demographic adjustments, both in terms of R2 and the extent to which plans experience unwarranted gains or losses. The simulation approach offers a valuable tool for analysts in assessing various risk-adjustment strategies under different selection situations.

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of... respect to implementation of risk adjustment software or as a result of data validation conducted pursuant... implementation of risk adjustment software or data validation. ...

Geographic disparities in colorectal cancer survival

PubMed Central

Henry, Kevin A; Niu, Xiaoling; Boscoe, Francis P

2009-01-01

Background Examining geographic variation in cancer patient survival can help identify important prognostic factors that are linked by geography and generate hypotheses about the underlying causes of survival disparities. In this study, we apply a recently developed spatial scan statistic method, designed for time-to-event data, to determine whether colorectal cancer (CRC) patient survival varies by place of residence after adjusting survival times for several prognostic factors. Methods Using data from a population-based, statewide cancer registry, we examined a cohort of 25,040 men and women from New Jersey who were newly diagnosed with local or regional stage colorectal cancer from 1996 through 2003 and followed to the end of 2006. Survival times were adjusted for significant prognostic factors (sex, age, stage at diagnosis, race/ethnicity and census tract socioeconomic deprivation) and evaluated using a spatial scan statistic to identify places where CRC survival was significantly longer or shorter than the statewide experience. Results Age, sex and stage adjusted survival times revealed several areas in the northern part of the state where CRC survival was significantly different than expected. The shortest and longest survival areas had an adjusted 5-year survival rate of 73.1% (95% CI 71.5, 74.9) and 88.3% (95% CI 85.4, 91.3) respectively, compared with the state average of 80.0% (95% CI 79.4, 80.5). Analysis of survival times adjusted for age, sex and stage as well as race/ethnicity and area socioeconomic deprivation attenuated the risk of death from CRC in several areas, but survival disparities persisted. Conclusion The results suggest that in areas where additional adjustments for race/ethnicity and area socioeconomic deprivation changed the geographic survival patterns and reduced the risk of death from CRC, the adjustment factors may be contributing causes of the disparities. Further studies should focus on specific and modifiable individual and neighborhood factors in the high risk areas that may affect a person's chance of surviving cancer. PMID:19627576

Exploring methods for comparing the real-world effectiveness of treatments for osteoporosis: adjusted direct comparisons versus using patients as their own control.

PubMed

Karlsson, Linda; Mesterton, Johan; Tepie, Maurille Feudjo; Intorcia, Michele; Overbeek, Jetty; Ström, Oskar

2017-09-21

Using Swedish and Dutch registry data for women initiating bisphosphonates, we evaluated two methods of comparing the real-world effectiveness of osteoporosis treatments that attempt to adjust for differences in patient baseline characteristics. Each method has advantages and disadvantages; both are potential complements to clinical trial analyses. We evaluated methods of comparing the real-world effectiveness of osteoporosis treatments that attempt to adjust for both observed and unobserved confounding. Swedish and Dutch registry data for women initiating zoledronate or oral bisphosphonates (OBPs; alendronate/risedronate) were used; the primary outcome was fracture. In adjusted direct comparisons (ADCs), regression and matching techniques were used to account for baseline differences in known risk factors for fracture (e.g., age, previous fracture, comorbidities). In an own-control analysis (OCA), for each treatment, fracture incidence in the first 90 days following treatment initiation (the baseline risk period) was compared with fracture incidence in the 1-year period starting 91 days after treatment initiation (the treatment exposure period). In total, 1196 and 149 women initiating zoledronate and 14,764 and 25,058 initiating OBPs were eligible in the Swedish and Dutch registries, respectively. Owing to the small Dutch zoledronate sample, only the Swedish data were used to compare fracture incidences between treatment groups. ADCs showed a numerically higher fracture incidence in the zoledronate than in the OBPs group (hazard ratio 1.09-1.21; not statistically significant, p > 0.05). For both treatment groups, OCA showed a higher fracture incidence in the baseline risk period than in the treatment exposure period, indicating a treatment effect. OCA showed a similar or greater effect in the zoledronate group compared with the OBPs group. ADC and OCA each possesses advantages and disadvantages. Combining both methods may provide an estimate of real-world treatment efficacy that could potentially complement clinical trial findings.

Genetic Variations in Magnesium-Related Ion Channels May Affect Diabetes Risk among African American and Hispanic American Women123

PubMed Central

Chan, Kei Hang K; Chacko, Sara A; Song, Yiqing; Cho, Michele; Eaton, Charles B; Wu, Wen-Chih H; Liu, Simin

2015-01-01

Background: Prospective studies consistently link low magnesium intake to higher type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. Objective: We examined the association of common genetic variants [single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] in genes related to magnesium homeostasis with T2D risk and potential interactions with magnesium intake. Methods: Using the Women's Health Initiative-SNP Health Association Resource (WHI-SHARe) study, we identified 17 magnesium-related ion channel genes (583 SNPs) and examined their associations with T2D risk in 7287 African-American (AA; n = 1949 T2D cases) and 3285 Hispanic-American (HA; n = 611 T2D cases) postmenopausal women. We performed both single- and multiple-locus haplotype analyses. Results: Among AA women, carriers of each additional copy of SNP rs6584273 in cyclin mediator 1 (CNNM1) had 16% lower T2D risk [OR: 0.84; false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted P = 0.02]. Among HA women, several variants were significantly associated with T2D risk, including rs10861279 in solute carrier family 41 (anion exchanger), member 2 (SLC41A2) (OR: 0.54; FDR-adjusted P = 0.04), rs7174119 in nonimprinted in Prader-Willi/Angelman syndrome 1 (NIPA1) (OR: 1.27; FDR-adjusted P = 0.04), and 2 SNPs in mitochondrial RNA splicing 2 (MRS2) (rs7738943: OR = 1.55, FDR-adjusted P = 0.01; rs1056285: OR = 1.48, FDR-adjusted P = 0.02). Even with the most conservative Bonferroni adjustment, two 2-SNP-haplotypes in SLC41A2 and MRS2 region were significantly associated with T2D risk (rs12582312-rs10861279: P = 0.0006; rs1056285-rs7738943: P = 0.002). Among women with magnesium intake in the lowest 30% (AA: ≤0.164 g/d; HA: ≤0.185 g/d), 4 SNP signals were strengthened [rs11590362 in claudin 19 (CLDN19), rs823154 in SLC41A1, rs5929706 and rs5930817 in membra; HA: ≥0.313 g/d), rs6584273 in CNNM1 (OR: 0.71; FDR-adjusted P = 0.04) and rs1800467 in potassium inwardly rectifying channel, subfamily J, member 11 (KCNJ11) (OR: 2.50; FDR-adjusted P = 0.01) were significantly associated with T2D risk. Conclusions: Our findings suggest important associations between genetic variations in magnesium-related ion channel genes and T2D risk in AA and HA women that vary by amount of magnesium intake. PMID:25733456

Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

PubMed

Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

2001-01-01

In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

ABO Blood Type A Is Associated With Increased Risk of ARDS in Whites Following Both Major Trauma and Severe Sepsis

PubMed Central

Meyer, Nuala J.; Shashaty, Michael G. S.; Feng, Rui; Lanken, Paul N.; Gallop, Robert; Kaplan, Sandra; Herlim, Maximilian; Oz, Nathaniel L.; Hiciano, Isabel; Campbell, Ana; Holena, Daniel N.; Reilly, Muredach P.; Christie, Jason D.

2014-01-01

Background: ABO glycosyltransferases catalyze antigen modifications on various glycans and glycoproteins and determine the ABO blood types. Blood type A has been associated with increased risk of vascular diseases and differential circulating levels of proteins related to inflammation and endothelial function. The objective of this study was to determine the association of ABO blood types with ARDS risk in patients with major trauma and severe sepsis. Methods: We conducted prospective cohort studies in two populations at an urban tertiary referral, level I trauma center. Critically ill patients (n = 732) presenting after major trauma were followed for 5 days for ARDS development. Additionally, 976 medical patients with severe sepsis were followed for 5 days for ARDS. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounders. Results: ARDS developed in 197 of the 732 trauma patients (27%). Blood type A was associated with increased ARDS risk among whites (37% vs 24%; adjusted OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.14-3.12; P = .014), but not blacks (adjusted OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.33-1.13; P = .114). ARDS developed in 222 of the 976 patients with severe sepsis (23%). Blood type A was also associated with an increased ARDS risk among whites (31% vs 21%; adjusted OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.08-2.59; P = .021) but, again, not among blacks (adjusted OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.59-2.33; P = .652). Conclusions: Blood type A is associated with an increased risk of ARDS in white patients with major trauma and severe sepsis. These results suggest a role for ABO glycans and glycosyltransferases in ARDS susceptibility. PMID:24385226

Comparing the effects of infrastructure on bicycling injury at intersections and non-intersections using a case–crossover design

PubMed Central

Harris, M Anne; Reynolds, Conor C O; Winters, Meghan; Cripton, Peter A; Shen, Hui; Chipman, Mary L; Cusimano, Michael D; Babul, Shelina; Brubacher, Jeffrey R; Friedman, Steven M; Hunte, Garth; Monro, Melody; Vernich, Lee; Teschke, Kay

2013-01-01

Background This study examined the impact of transportation infrastructure at intersection and non-intersection locations on bicycling injury risk. Methods In Vancouver and Toronto, we studied adult cyclists who were injured and treated at a hospital emergency department. A case–crossover design compared the infrastructure of injury and control sites within each injured bicyclist's route. Intersection injury sites (N=210) were compared to randomly selected intersection control sites (N=272). Non-intersection injury sites (N=478) were compared to randomly selected non-intersection control sites (N=801). Results At intersections, the types of routes meeting and the intersection design influenced safety. Intersections of two local streets (no demarcated traffic lanes) had approximately one-fifth the risk (adjusted OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.66) of intersections of two major streets (more than two traffic lanes). Motor vehicle speeds less than 30 km/h also reduced risk (adjusted OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.92). Traffic circles (small roundabouts) on local streets increased the risk of these otherwise safe intersections (adjusted OR 7.98, 95% CI 1.79 to 35.6). At non-intersection locations, very low risks were found for cycle tracks (bike lanes physically separated from motor vehicle traffic; adjusted OR 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.59) and local streets with diverters that reduce motor vehicle traffic (adjusted OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.003 to 0.60). Downhill grades increased risks at both intersections and non-intersections. Conclusions These results provide guidance for transportation planners and engineers: at local street intersections, traditional stops are safer than traffic circles, and at non-intersections, cycle tracks alongside major streets and traffic diversion from local streets are safer than no bicycle infrastructure. PMID:23411678

Associations of Genetic Variants in the PSCA, MUC1 and PLCE1 Genes with Stomach Cancer Susceptibility in a Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Sun, Hongwei; Wu, Xiaoli; Wu, Fang; Li, Ying; Yu, Zhengping; Chen, Xiangrong; Chen, Yunzhi; Yang, Wenjun

2015-01-01

Background Several genetic variants including PSCA rs2294008 C>T and rs2976392 G>A, MUC1 rs4072037 T>C, and PLCE1 rs2274223 A>G have shown significant association with stomach cancer risk in the previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Methods To evaluate associations of these SNPs in the Han Chinese, an independent hospital based case-control study was performed by genotyping these four polymorphisms in a total of 692 stomach cancer cases and 774 healthy controls acquired by using frequency matching for age and gender. False-positive report probability (FPRP) analysis was also performed to validate all statistically significant findings. Results In the current study, significant association with stomach cancer susceptibility was observed for all the four polymorphisms of interest. Specifically, a significant increased stomach cancer risk was associated with PSCA rs2294008 (CT vs. CC: adjusted OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.07–1.74, and CT/TT vs.CC: adjusted OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.03–1.63), PSCA rs2976392 (AG vs. GG: adjusted OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.02–1.65, and AG/AA vs. GG: adjusted OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.00–1.59), or PLCE1 rs2274223 (AG vs. AA: adjusted OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.15–1.90, and AG/GG vs. AA: adjusted OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.14–1.84), respectively. In contrast, MUC1 rs4072037 was shown to decrease the cancer risk (CT vs. TT: adjusted OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.60–0.98). Patients with more than one risk genotypes had significant increased risk to develop stomach cancer (adjusted OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.03–1.64), when compared with those having 0–1 risk genotypes. Stratified analysis indicated that the increased risk was more pronounced in younger subjects, men, ever smokers, smokers with pack years ≤ 27, patients with high BMI, or non-cardia stomach cancer. Conclusions This study substantiated the associations between four previous reported genetic variants and stomach cancer susceptibility in an independent Han Chinese population. Further studies with larger sample size and different ethnicities are warranted to validate our findings. PMID:25658482

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

PubMed

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Geographic Region, Weather, Pilot Age and Air Carrier Crashes: a Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Li, Guohua; Pressley, Joyce C.; Qiang, Yandong; Grabowski, Jurek G.; Baker, Susan P.; Rebok, George W.

2009-01-01

Background Information about risk factors of aviation crashes is crucial for developing effective intervention programs. Previous studies assessing factors associated with crash risk were conducted primarily in general aviation, air taxis and commuter air carriers. Methods A matched case-control design was used to examine the associations of geographic region, basic weather condition, and pilot age with the risk of air carrier (14 CFR Part 121) crash involvement. Cases (n=373) were air carrier crashes involving aircraft made by Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, and Airbus, recorded in the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation crash database during 1983 through 2002, and controls (n=746) were air carrier incidents involving aircraft of the same three makes selected at random from the Federal Aviation Administration’s aviation incident database. Each case was matched with two controls on the calendar year when the index crash occurred. Conditional logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results With adjustment for basic weather condition, pilot age, and total flight time, the risk of air carrier crashes in Alaska was more than three times the risk for other regions [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35 – 7.49]. Instrument meteorological conditions were associated with an increased risk for air carrier crashes involving pilot error (adjusted OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.15 – 4.44) and a decreased risk for air carrier crashes without pilot error (adjusted OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.40 – 0.87). Neither pilot age nor total flight time was significantly associated with the risk of air carrier crashes. Conclusions The excess risk of air carrier crashes in Alaska and the effect of adverse weather on pilot-error crashes underscore the importance of environmental hazards in flight safety. PMID:19378910

The effect of gender, age, and symptom severity in late-life depression on the risk of all-cause mortality: The Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

PubMed Central

Diniz, Breno S.; Reynolds, Charles F.; Butters, Meryl A.; Dew, Mary Amanda; Firmo, Josélia O. A.; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Castro-Costa, Erico

2014-01-01

Background Increased mortality risk and its moderators is an important, but still under recognized, negative outcome of Late-Life Depression (LLD). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in a population-based study with over ten years of follow-up, and addressed the moderating effect of gender and symptom severity on mortality risk. Methods This analysis used data from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging. The study population comprised 1.508 (86.5%) of all eligible 1.742 elderly residents. Depressive symptoms were annually evaluated by the GHQ-12, with scores of 5 or higher indicating clinically significant depression. From 1997 to 2007, 441 participants died during 10,648 person-years of follow-up. We estimated the hazard ratio for mortality risk by Cox regression analyses. Results Depressive symptoms were a risk factor for all-cause mortality after adjusting for confounding lifestyle and clinical factors (adjusted HR=1.24 CI95% [1.00–1.55], p=0.05). Mortality risk was significantly elevated in men (adjusted HR=1.45 CI95% [1.01 – 2.07], p=0.04), but not in women (adjusted HR=1.13 CI95% [0.84 – 1.48], p=0.15). We observed a significant interaction between gender and depressive symptoms on mortality risk ((HR= 1.72 CI95% [1.18 – 2.49], p=0.004). Conclusion The present study provides evidence that LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in the elderly, especially in men. The prevention and adequate treatment of LLD may help to reduce premature disability and death among elders with depressive symptoms. PMID:24353128

The influence of social adjustment on normative and risky health behaviors in emerging adults with spina bifida.

PubMed

Murray, Caitlin B; Lennon, Jaclyn M; Devine, Katie A; Holmbeck, Grayson N; Klages, Kimberly; Potthoff, Lauren M

2014-10-01

To understand the rates of normative and risky health behaviors and the influence of prior and current social adjustment on health risk behaviors in emerging adults with spina bifida (SB). These data are part of a larger longitudinal study of youth with SB; at ages 18-19, 50 emerging adults with SB and 60 typically developing (TD) youth participated. Social adjustment was measured at ages 12/13, 14/15, 16/17, and 18/19. Substance use and sexual activity were self-reported by emerging adults. The SB group reported similar frequencies (i.e., number of days in the previous month) of cigarette and marijuana use. Fewer individuals with SB reported initiation of both alcohol use (i.e., ever used) and sexual activity (i.e., ever had sex) compared to TD peers. The SB group also reported less frequent alcohol use and fewer sexual partners. Better social adjustment during early adolescence (ages 12/13) predicted more frequent alcohol use and a greater number of sexual partners for all youth. Social adjustment also mediated the effect of group status on health risk behaviors. Emerging adults with SB lag behind TD peers in terms of normative initiation of alcohol use and sexual activity. However, this population participates in some risky health behaviors at similar rates compared to their TD peers (e.g., smoking). Youths' health risk behaviors may be influenced by their level of social adjustment. A challenge for future interventions for this population will be finding methods of improving social functioning without increasing the rate of health risk behavior.

A longitudinal high-risk study of adolescent anxiety, depression and parent-severity on the developmental course of risk-adjustment.

PubMed

Rawal, Adhip; Riglin, Lucy; Ng-Knight, Terry; Collishaw, Stephan; Thapar, Anita; Rice, Frances

2014-11-01

Adolescence is associated with developments in the reward system and increased rates of emotional disorders. Familial risk for depression may be associated with disruptions in the reward system. However, it is unclear how symptoms of depression and anxiety influence the development of reward-processing over adolescence and whether variation in the severity of parental depression is associated with hyposensitivity to reward in a high-risk sample. We focused on risk-adjustment (adjusting decisions about reward according to the probability of obtaining reward) as this was hypothesized to improve over adolescence. In a one-year longitudinal sample (N = 197) of adolescent offspring of depressed parents, we examined how symptoms of depression and anxiety (generalized anxiety and social anxiety) influenced the development of risk-adjustment. We also examined how parental depression severity influenced adolescent risk-adjustment. Risk-adjustment improved over the course of the study indicating improved adjustment of reward-seeking to shifting contingencies. Depressive symptoms were associated with decreases in risk-adjustment over time while social anxiety symptoms were associated with increases in risk-adjustment over time. Specifically, depression was associated with reductions in reward-seeking at favourable reward probabilities only, whereas social anxiety (but not generalized anxiety) led to reductions in reward-seeking at low reward probabilities only. Parent depression severity was associated with lowered risk-adjustment in offspring and also influenced the longitudinal relationship between risk-adjustment and offspring depression. Anxiety and depression distinctly alter the pattern of longitudinal change in reward-processing. Severity of parent depression was associated with alterations in adolescent offspring reward-processing in a high-risk sample. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

The grey matter correlates of impaired decision-making in multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Muhlert, Nils; Sethi, Varun; Cipolotti, Lisa; Haroon, Hamied; Parker, Geoff J M; Yousry, Tarek; Wheeler-Kingshott, Claudia; Miller, David; Ron, Maria; Chard, Declan

2015-01-01

Objective People with multiple sclerosis (MS) have difficulties with decision-making but it is unclear if this is due to changes in impulsivity, risk taking, deliberation or risk adjustment, and how this relates to brain pathology. Methods We assessed these aspects of decision-making in 105 people with MS and 43 healthy controls. We used a novel diffusion MRI method, diffusion orientational complexity (DOC), as an index of grey matter pathology in regions associated with decision-making and also measured grey matter tissue volumes and white matter lesion volumes. Results People with MS showed less adjustment to risk and slower decision-making than controls. Moreover, impaired decision-making correlated with reduced executive function, memory and processing speed. Decision-making impairments were most prevalent in people with secondary progressive MS. They were seen in patients with cognitive impairment and those without cognitive impairment. On diffusion MRI, people with MS showed DOC changes in all regions except the occipital cortex, relative to controls. Risk adjustment correlated with DOC in the hippocampi and deliberation time with DOC in the medial prefrontal, middle frontal gyrus, anterior cingulate and caudate parcellations and with white matter lesion volumes. Conclusions These data clarify the features of decision-making deficits in MS, and provide the first evidence that they relate to grey and white matter abnormalities seen using MRI. PMID:25006208

78 FR 32255 - HHS-Operated Risk Adjustment Data Validation Stakeholder Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-29

...-Operated Risk Adjustment Data Validation Stakeholder Meeting AGENCY: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid... Act HHS-operated risk adjustment data validation process. The purpose of this public meeting is to... interested parties about key HHS policy considerations pertaining to the HHS-operated risk adjustment data...

Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

PubMed

von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

2016-03-01

Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

Adjusted Analyses in Studies Addressing Therapy and Harm: Users' Guides to the Medical Literature.

PubMed

Agoritsas, Thomas; Merglen, Arnaud; Shah, Nilay D; O'Donnell, Martin; Guyatt, Gordon H

2017-02-21

Observational studies almost always have bias because prognostic factors are unequally distributed between patients exposed or not exposed to an intervention. The standard approach to dealing with this problem is adjusted or stratified analysis. Its principle is to use measurement of risk factors to create prognostically homogeneous groups and to combine effect estimates across groups.The purpose of this Users' Guide is to introduce readers to fundamental concepts underlying adjustment as a way of dealing with prognostic imbalance and to the basic principles and relative trustworthiness of various adjustment strategies.One alternative to the standard approach is propensity analysis, in which groups are matched according to the likelihood of membership in exposed or unexposed groups. Propensity methods can deal with multiple prognostic factors, even if there are relatively few patients having outcome events. However, propensity methods do not address other limitations of traditional adjustment: investigators may not have measured all relevant prognostic factors (or not accurately), and unknown factors may bias the results.A second approach, instrumental variable analysis, relies on identifying a variable associated with the likelihood of receiving the intervention but not associated with any prognostic factor or with the outcome (other than through the intervention); this could mimic randomization. However, as with assumptions of other adjustment approaches, it is never certain if an instrumental variable analysis eliminates bias.Although all these approaches can reduce the risk of bias in observational studies, none replace the balance of both known and unknown prognostic factors offered by randomization.

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... with risk adjustment standards. (a) Issuer support of data validation. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must comply with any data validation requests by the State or HHS on behalf of the... must retain any information requested to support risk adjustment data validation for a period of at...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... with risk adjustment standards. (a) Issuer support of data validation. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must comply with any data validation requests by the State or HHS on behalf of the... must retain any information requested to support risk adjustment data validation for a period of at...

Childhood Cognition and Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease in Midadulthood: The 1958 British Birth Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Jefferis, Barbara J. M. H.; Manor, Orly

2010-01-01

Objectives. We sought to establish whether associations between childhood cognition and risk factors for cardiovascular disease in adulthood are explained by common causes, or adult social position or health behavior. Methods. We analyzed associations between cognition at age 11 and cardiovascular disease risk factors at age 45 in the 1958 British birth cohort (n = 9377), with and without adjustment for covariates. Results. General ability was inversely associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycosylated hemoglobin, triglycerides (in women), body mass index, and waist circumference. Systolic blood pressure decreased by 0.47 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI] = −0.90, –0.05) for a 1-standard-deviation increase in ability. Separate adjustment for social class at birth, education level by adulthood, adult social class, and health behaviors reduced the associations respectively by 14% to 34%, 36% to 50%, 14% to 36%, and 24% to 73%. Full adjustment reduced associations between ability and risk factors at age 45 years by 43% to 92%, abolishing all associations. Conclusions. Increments across the distribution of childhood cognition are associated with improvements in cardiovascular risk profile in midlife, with associations primarily mediated through adult health behavior and social destinations. PMID:19910352

Case complexity scores in congenital heart surgery: a comparative study of the Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system.

PubMed

Al-Radi, Osman O; Harrell, Frank E; Caldarone, Christopher A; McCrindle, Brian W; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Williams, M Gail; Van Arsdell, Glen S; Williams, William G

2007-04-01

The Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery system were developed by consensus to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. We compared the predictive value of the 2 systems. Of all index congenital cardiac operations at our institution from 1982 to 2004 (n = 13,675), we were able to assign an Aristotle Basic Complexity score, a Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery score, and both scores to 13,138 (96%), 11,533 (84%), and 11,438 (84%) operations, respectively. Models of in-hospital mortality and length of stay were generated for Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery using an identical data set in which both Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were assigned. The likelihood ratio test for nested models and paired concordance statistics were used. After adjustment for year of operation, the odds ratios for Aristotle Basic Complexity score 3 versus 6, 9 versus 6, 12 versus 6, and 15 versus 6 were 0.29, 2.22, 7.62, and 26.54 (P < .0001). Similarly, odds ratios for Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery categories 1 versus 2, 3 versus 2, 4 versus 2, and 5/6 versus 2 were 0.23, 1.98, 5.80, and 20.71 (P < .0001). Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery added significant predictive value over Aristotle Basic Complexity (likelihood ratio chi2 = 162, P < .0001), whereas Aristotle Basic Complexity contributed much less predictive value over Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (likelihood ratio chi2 = 13.4, P = .009). Neither system fully adjusted for the child's age. The Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were more concordant with length of stay compared with Aristotle Basic Complexity scores (P < .0001). The predictive value of Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery is higher than that of Aristotle Basic Complexity. The use of Aristotle Basic Complexity or Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery as risk stratification and trending tools to monitor outcomes over time and to guide risk-adjusted comparisons may be valuable.

Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

PubMed

Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

2013-10-29

Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

Managing loss adjustment expenses: strategies for health care risk managers.

PubMed

Quinley, K M

1991-01-01

Like most businesses, adjusting companies are not charitable organizations. They are entitled to a reasonable profit, which the risk manager should not begrudge. As a buyer of adjusting services, a risk manager with an inordinate obsession with slashing adjusting bills can destroy the goal of high-quality service. It is best for risk managers to pick and choose the areas for cutting adjusting expenses. To an extent, health care risk managers should view payment of high-quality adjusting services as an investment, with the payback being money saved by fighting fraudulent, exaggerated, and questionable claims.

Predictors of early and late stroke following cardiac surgery

PubMed Central

Whitlock, Richard; Healey, Jeff S.; Connolly, Stuart J.; Wang, Julie; Danter, Matthew R.; Tu, Jack V.; Novick, Richard; Fremes, Stephen; Teoh, Kevin; Khera, Vikas; Yusuf, Salim

2014-01-01

Background: Much is known about the short-term risks of stroke following cardiac surgery. We examined the rate and predictors of long-term stroke in a cohort of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. Methods: We obtained linked data for patients who underwent cardiac surgery in the province of Ontario between 1996 and 2006. We analyzed the incidence of stroke and death up to 2 years postoperatively. Results: Of 108 711 patients, 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7%–1.9%) had a stroke perioperatively, and 3.6% (95% CI 3.5%–3.7%) had a stroke within the ensuing 2 years. The strongest predictors of both early and late stroke were advanced age (≥ 65 year; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for all stroke 1.9, 95% CI 1.8–2.0), a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (adjusted HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.9–2.3), peripheral vascular disease (adjusted HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.5–1.7), combined coronary bypass grafting and valve surgery (adjusted HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5–1.8) and valve surgery alone (adjusted HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.5). Preoperative need for dialysis (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.1, 95% CI 1.6–2.8) and new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (adjusted OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3–1.6) were predictors of only early stroke. A CHADS2 score of 2 or higher was associated with an increased risk of stroke or death compared with a score of 0 or 1 (19.9% v. 9.3% among patients with a history of atrial fibrillation, 16.8% v. 7.8% among those with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation and 14.8% v. 5.8% among those without this condition). Interpretation: Patients who had cardiac surgery were at highest risk of stroke in the early postoperative period and had continued risk over the ensuing 2 years, with similar risk factors over these periods. New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation was a predictor of only early stroke. The CHADS2 score predicted stroke risk among patients with and without atrial fibrillation. PMID:25047983

Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

PubMed Central

Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

2004-01-01

This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

Papilloma Virus Infected Northeastern Thai Women

PubMed

Phuthong, Sophida; Settheetham-Ishida, Wannapa; Natphopsuk, Sitakan; Ishida, Takafumi

2018-02-26

Objective: We aimed to investigate any association between a genetic polymorphism of the detoxification GSTP1 gene and risk of cervical cancer in northeastern Thailand. Materials and Methods: Genotyping of GSTP1 was performed for 198 squamous cell cervical cancer (SCCA) patients and 198 age-matched healthy controls with the PCR-RFLP method. Results: The respective frequencies of the G allele were 0.33 and 0.26 in the controls and cases, the difference being significant (OR = 0.69 [95% CI: 0.50-0.95, p=0.0192]). Among women infected with high-risk types of HPV, being a heterozygous carrier was associated with a reduced risk of cervical cancer (adjusted OR = 0.32 [95% CI: 0.12-0.91, p=0.031]). Similarly, a decreased risk was observed in heterozygous women with a non-smoking partner (adjusted OR = 0.27 [95% CI: 0.09-0.83, p=0.023]). Conclusions: GSTP1 polymorphism could influence susceptibility to cervical cancer among northeast Thai women; either as a independent factor or in combination with high-risk HPV infection. Dual-testing of HPV and the GSTP1 might prove an effective screening tool for cervical cancer. Creative Commons Attribution License

Use of Organic Nitrates and the Risk of Hip Fracture: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Pouwels, Sander; Lalmohamed, Arief; van Staa, Tjeerd; Cooper, Cyrus; Souverein, Patrick; Leufkens, Hubertus G.; Rejnmark, Lars; de Boer, Anthonius; Vestergaard, Peter; de Vries, Frank

2010-01-01

Context: Use of organic nitrates has been associated with increased bone mineral density. Moreover, a large Danish case-control study reported a decreased fracture risk. However, the association with duration of nitrate use, dose frequency, and impact of discontinuation has not been extensively studied. Objective: Our objective was to evaluate the association between organic nitrates and hip fracture risk. Methods: A case-control study was conducted using the Dutch PHARMO Record Linkage System (1991–2002, n = 6,763 hip fracture cases and 26,341 controls). Cases had their first admission for hip fracture, whereas controls had not sustained any fracture after enrollment. Current users of organic nitrates were patients who had received a prescription within 90 d before the index date. The analyses were adjusted for disease and drug history. Results: Current use of nitrates was not associated with a decreased risk of hip fracture [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.93; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.83–1.04]. Those who used as-needed medication only had a lower risk of hip fracture (adjusted OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.63–1.08) compared with users of maintenance medication only (adjusted OR = 1.17; 95% CI = 0.97–1.40). No association was found between duration of nitrate use and fracture risk. Conclusions: Our overall analyses showed that risk of a hip fracture was significantly lower among users of as-needed organic nitrates, when compared with users of maintenance medication. Our analyses of hip fracture risks with duration of use did not further support a beneficial effect of organic nitrates on hip fracture, although residual confounding may have masked beneficial effects. PMID:20130070

Drugs to Treat Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Relationship between Current Use and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Rho, Young Hee; Oeser, Annette; Chung, Cecilia P; Morrow, Jason D; Stein, C Michael

2008-01-01

Objectives Cardiovascular risk is increased in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Drugs used to treat SLE can modify traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We examined the effect of selected drugs used in the treatment of SLE on cardiovascular risk factors. Methods We compared systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum lipid concentrations, glucose, homocysteine, and urinary F2-isoprostane concentrations in 99 patients with lupus who were either current users or non-users of systemic corticosteroids, antimalarials, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), COX-2 selective NSAIDs, azathioprine, and methotrexate. Multivariable adjustment was done with linear regression modeling using sex, age and disease activity (SLEDAI) as controlling variables. Results Serum triglyceride concentrations were higher (135.1 ± 61.4 vs. 95.3 ± 47.5 mg/dL, adjusted P = 0.003) in patients receiving corticosteroids. Homocysteine concentrations were marginally higher in patients receiving methotrexate (adjusted P = 0.08). Current use of either NSAIDs or COX-2 inhibitors was not associated with increased cardiovascular risk factors. Current hydroxychloroquine use was not associated with significant alterations in lipid profiles. Conclusions In a non-random sample of patients with SLE, current corticosteroid use was associated with increased triglyceride concentrations, but other drugs had little effect on traditional cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:20157365

Microsatellite Status of Primary Colorectal Cancer Predicts the Incidence of Postoperative Colorectal Neoplasms.

PubMed

Takiyama, Aki; Tanaka, Toshiaki; Yamamoto, Yoko; Hata, Keisuke; Ishihara, Soichiro; Nozawa, Hiroaki; Kawai, Kazushige; Kiyomatsu, Tomomichi; Nishikawa, Takeshi; Otani, Kensuke; Sasaki, Kazuhito; Watanabe, Toshiaki

2017-10-01

Few studies have evaluated the risk of postoperative colorectal neoplasms stratified by the nature of primary colorectal cancer (CRC). In this study, we revealed it on the basis of the microsatellite (MS) status of primary CRC. We retrospectively reviewed 338 patients with CRC and calculated the risk of neoplasms during postoperative surveillance colonoscopy in association with the MS status of primary CRC. A propensity score method was applied. We identified a higher incidence of metachronous rectal neoplasms after the resection of MS stable CRC than MS instable CRC (adjusted HR 5.74, p=0.04). We also observed a higher incidence of colorectal tubular adenoma in patients with MSS CRC (adjusted hazard ratio 7.09, p<0.01) and a higher incidence of postoperative tubulovillous/villous adenoma in patients with MS instable CRC (adjusted HR=8.50, p=0.03). The MS status of primary colorectal cancer influenced the risk of postoperative colorectal neoplasms. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

The risk of revision in total knee arthroplasty is not affected by previous high tibial osteotomy

PubMed Central

Badawy, Mona; Fenstad, Anne M; Indrekvam, Kari; Havelin, Leif I; Furnes, Ove

2015-01-01

Background and purpose — Previous studies have found different outcomes after revision of knee arthroplasties performed after high tibial osteotomy (HTO). We evaluated the risk of revision of total knee arthroplasty with or without previous HTO in a large registry material. Patients and methods — 31,077 primary TKAs were compared with 1,399 TKAs after HTO, using Kaplan-Meier 10-year survival percentages and adjusted Cox regression analysis. Results — The adjusted survival analyses showed similar survival in the 2 groups. The Kaplan-Meier 10-year survival was 93.8% in the primary TKA group and 92.6% in the TKA-post-HTO group. Adjusted RR was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.77–1.21; p = 0.8). Interpretation — In this registry-based study, previous high tibial osteotomy did not appear to compromise the results regarding risk of revision after total knee arthroplasty compared to primary knee arthroplasty. PMID:26058747

Use of antibiotics during pregnancy and risk of spontaneous abortion

PubMed Central

Muanda, Flory T.; Sheehy, Odile; Bérard, Anick

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although antibiotics are widely used during pregnancy, evidence regarding their fetal safety remains limited. Our aim was to quantify the association between antibiotic exposure during pregnancy and risk of spontaneous abortion. METHODS: We conducted a nested case–control study within the Quebec Pregnancy Cohort (1998–2009). We excluded planned abortions and pregnancies exposed to fetotoxic drugs. Spontaneous abortion was defined as having a diagnosis or procedure related to spontaneous abortion before the 20th week of pregnancy. The index date was defined as the calendar date of the spontaneous abortion. Ten controls per case were randomly selected and matched by gestational age and year of pregnancy. Use of antibiotics was defined by filled prescriptions between the first day of gestation and the index date and was compared with (a) non-exposure and (b) exposure to penicillins or cephalosporins. We studied type of antibiotics separately using the same comparator groups. RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounders, use of azithromycin (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34–2.02; 110 exposed cases), clarithromycin (adjusted OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.90–2.91; 111 exposed cases), metronidazole (adjusted OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.27–2.26; 53 exposed cases), sulfonamides (adjusted OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.36–2.97; 30 exposed cases), tetracyclines (adjusted OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.97–3.41; 67 exposed cases) and quinolones (adjusted OR 2.72, 95% CI 2.27–3.27; 160 exposed cases) was associated with an increased risk of spontaneous abortion. Similar results were found when we used penicillins or cephalosporins as the comparator group. INTERPRETATION: After adjustment for potential confounders, use of macro-lides (excluding erythromycin), quinolones, tetracyclines, sulfonamides and metronidazole during early pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of spontaneous abortion. Our findings may be of use to policy-makers to update guidelines for the treatment of infections during pregnancy. PMID:28461374

A risk-adjusted O-E CUSUM with monitoring bands for monitoring medical outcomes.

PubMed

Sun, Rena Jie; Kalbfleisch, John D

2013-03-01

In order to monitor a medical center's survival outcomes using simple plots, we introduce a risk-adjusted Observed-Expected (O-E) Cumulative SUM (CUSUM) along with monitoring bands as decision criterion.The proposed monitoring bands can be used in place of a more traditional but complicated V-shaped mask or the simultaneous use of two one-sided CUSUMs. The resulting plot is designed to simultaneously monitor for failure time outcomes that are "worse than expected" or "better than expected." The slopes of the O-E CUSUM provide direct estimates of the relative risk (as compared to a standard or expected failure rate) for the data being monitored. Appropriate rejection regions are obtained by controlling the false alarm rate (type I error) over a period of given length. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. A case study is carried out for 58 liver transplant centers. The use of CUSUM methods for quality improvement is stressed. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Capitation pricing: Adjusting for prior utilization and physician discretion

PubMed Central

Anderson, Gerard F.; Cantor, Joel C.; Steinberg, Earl P.; Holloway, James

1986-01-01

As the number of Medicare beneficiaries receiving care under at-risk capitation arrangements increases, the method for setting payment rates will come under increasing scrutiny. A number of modifications to the current adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) methodology have been proposed, including an adjustment for prior utilization. In this article, we propose use of a utilization adjustment that includes only hospitalizations involving low or moderate physician discretion in the decision to hospitalize. This modification avoids discrimination against capitated systems that prevent certain discretionary admissions. The model also explains more of the variance in per capita expenditures than does the current AAPCC. PMID:10312010

Risk factors for UK Plasmodium falciparum cases

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background An increasing proportion of malaria cases diagnosed in UK residents with a history of travel to malaria endemic areas are due to Plasmodium falciparum. Methods In order to identify travellers at most risk of acquiring malaria a proportional hazards model was used to estimate the risk of acquiring malaria stratified by purpose of travel and age whilst adjusting for entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and duration of stay in endemic countries. Results Travellers visiting friends and relatives and business travellers were found to have significantly higher hazard of acquiring malaria (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) relative to that of holiday makers 7.4, 95% CI 6.4–8.5, p < 0. 0001 and HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.9-3.8, p < 0. 0001, respectively). All age-groups were at lower risk than children aged 0–15 years. Conclusions These estimates of the increased risk for business travellers and those visiting friends and relatives should be used to inform programmes to improve awareness of the risks of malaria when travelling. PMID:25091803

The age and other factors in the evaluation of compliance with nasal continuous positive airway pressure for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. A Cox's proportional hazard analysis.

PubMed

Pelletier-Fleury, N; Rakotonanahary, D; Fleury, B

2001-05-01

Objective: To elucidate the predictive role of age and other pre-treatment, putative confounding factors on compliance with nasal continuous positive airway pressure (nCPAP) therapy.Patients and methods: This study was designed as a prospective cohort study in the setting of a sleep laboratory in a teaching hospital at Saint Antoine, Paris. One hundred and sixty-three patients referred to the sleep laboratory with complaints of snoring and excessive daytime sleepiness for whom nCPAP had been prescribed for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS; defined as an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) of >15/h of sleep during a polysomnographic recording) were followed for a median period of 887 days. The main outcome measure was the risk ratio for elderly patients associated with nCPAP compliance.Results: Four patients, who remained under treatment, died before the end of the study, and 50 patients stopped their nCPAP therapy for reasons other than death (insomnia, equipment too noisy, etc.). When compliance curves were compared by univariate analysis (log-rank test), the oldest group (57/163 patients, >60 years old) was significantly less compliant with nCPAP than the youngest (P=0.01). However, in the Cox's proportional hazards model, age did not exert any independent effect on compliance with nCPAP after controlling for confounding factors (adjusted relative risk, 1.09, 0.5-2; P=0.70). On the other hand, female sex (adjusted relative risk, 2.8, 1.4-5.4; P=0.002), a body mass index (BMI) of /=12 cmH(2)O (adjusted relative risk, 2.3, 1.2-4.4; P=0.011) were predictive factors for non-compliance.Conclusion: This study suggests that there is no independent effect of age on compliance with nCPAP therapy.

Inflammation as a Mediator of the Association Between Race and Atrial Fibrillation: Results from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

PubMed Central

Dewland, Thomas A.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Harris, Tamara B.; Magnani, Jared W.; Liu, Yongmei; Hsu, Fang-Chi; Satterfield, Suzanne; Wassel, Christina; Marcus, Gregory M.

2015-01-01

Background Despite a lower prevalence of established atrial fibrillation (AF) risk factors, Whites exhibit substantially higher rates of this arrhythmia compared to Blacks. The mechanism underlying this observation is not known. Both inflammation and obesity are risk factors for AF, and adipose tissue is a known contributor to systemic inflammation. Objectives We sought to determine the degree to which racial differences in AF risk are explained by differences in inflammation and adiposity. Methods Baseline serum inflammatory biomarker concentrations and abdominal adiposity (assessed by computed tomography) were quantified in a subset of Black and White participants without prevalent AF in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Participants were prospectively followed for the diagnosis of AF using study ECGs and Medicare claims data. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the adjusted relative hazard of incident AF between races before and after biomarker adjustment. Results Among 2,768 participants (43% Black), 721 developed incident AF over a median follow up of 10.9 years. White race was associated with a heightened adjusted risk of incident AF (HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.84, p < 0.001). Abdominal adiposity was not associated with AF when added to the adjusted model. Among the studied biomarkers, adiponectin, TNF-α, TNF-α SR I, and TNF-α SR II concentrations were each higher among Whites and independently associated with a greater risk of incident AF. Together, these inflammatory cytokines mediated 42% (95% CI 15 to 119%, p = 0.004) of the adjusted race-AF association. Conclusions Systemic inflammatory pathways significantly mediate the heightened risk of AF among Whites. The higher level of systemic inflammation and concomitant increased AF risk in Whites is not explained by racial differences in abdominal adiposity or the presence of other pro-inflammatory cardiovascular comorbidities. PMID:26501131

Physical activity and risk of ischemic stroke in the Northern Manhattan Study

PubMed Central

Willey, J Z.; Moon, Y P.; Paik, M C.; Boden-Albala, B; Sacco, R L.; Elkind, M S.V.

2009-01-01

Background: It is controversial whether physical activity is protective against first stroke among older persons. We sought to examine whether physical activity, as measured by intensity of exercise and energy expended, is protective against ischemic stroke. Methods: The Northern Manhattan Study is a prospective cohort study in older, urban-dwelling, multiethnic, stroke-free individuals. Baseline measures of leisure-time physical activity were collected via in-person questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to examine whether energy expended and intensity of physical activity were associated with the risk of incident ischemic stroke. Results: Physical inactivity was present in 40.5% of the cohort. Over a median follow-up of 9.1 years, there were 238 incident ischemic strokes. Moderate- to heavy-intensity physical activity was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.65, 95% confidence interval [0.44–0.98]). Engaging in any physical activity vs none (adjusted HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.88–1.51) and energy expended in kcal/wk (adjusted HR per 500-unit increase 1.01, 95% CI 0.99–1.03) were not associated with ischemic stroke risk. There was an interaction of sex with intensity of physical activity (p = 0.04), such that moderate to heavy activity was protective against ischemic stroke in men (adjusted HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.18–0.78), but not in women (adjusted HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.57–1.50). Conclusions: Moderate- to heavy-intensity physical activity, but not energy expended, is protective against risk of ischemic stroke independent of other stroke risk factors in men in our cohort. Engaging in moderate to heavy physical activities may be an important component of primary prevention strategies aimed at reducing stroke risk. GLOSSARY CI = confidence interval; HR = hazard ratio; MET = metabolic equivalents. PMID:19933979

Avoidable waste related to inadequate methods and incomplete reporting of interventions: a systematic review of randomized trials performed in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Ndounga Diakou, Lee Aymar; Ntoumi, Francine; Ravaud, Philippe; Boutron, Isabelle

2017-07-05

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are needed to improve health care in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, inadequate methods and incomplete reporting of interventions can prevent the transposition of research in practice which leads waste of research. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the avoidable waste in research related to inadequate methods and incomplete reporting of interventions in RCTs performed in SSA. We performed a methodological systematic review of RCTs performed in SSA and published between 1 January 2014 and 31 March 2015. We searched PubMed, the Cochrane library and the African Index Medicus to identify reports. We assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool, and for each risk of bias item, determined whether easy adjustments with no or minor cost could change the domain to low risk of bias. The reporting of interventions was assessed by using standardized checklists based on the Consolidated Standards for Reporting Trials, and core items of the Template for Intervention Description and Replication. Corresponding authors of reports with incomplete reporting of interventions were contacted to obtain additional information. Data were descriptively analyzed. Among 121 RCTs selected, 74 (61%) evaluated pharmacological treatments (PTs), including drugs and nutritional supplements; and 47 (39%) nonpharmacological treatments (NPTs) (40 participative interventions, 1 surgical procedure, 3 medical devices and 3 therapeutic strategies). Overall, the randomization sequence was adequately generated in 76 reports (62%) and the intervention allocation concealed in 48 (39%). The primary outcome was described as blinded in 46 reports (38%), and incomplete outcome data were adequately addressed in 78 (64%). Applying easy methodological adjustments with no or minor additional cost to trials with at least one domain at high risk of bias could have reduced the number of domains at high risk for 24 RCTs (19%). Interventions were completely reported for 73/121 (60%) RCTs: 51/74 (68%) of PTs and 22/47 (46%) of NPTs. Additional information was obtained from corresponding authors for 11/48 reports (22%). Inadequate methods and incomplete reporting of published SSA RCTs could be improved by easy and inexpensive methodological adjustments and adherence to reporting guidelines.

Longitudinal study of mammographic density measures that predict breast cancer risk

PubMed Central

Krishnan, Kavitha; Baglietto, Laura; Stone, Jennifer; Simpson, Julie A; Severi, Gianluca; Evans, Christopher F; MacInnis, Robert J; Giles, Graham G; Apicella, Carmel; Hopper, John L

2016-01-01

Background After adjusting for age and body mass index (BMI), mammographic measures - dense area (DA), percent dense area (PDA) and non-dense area (NDA) - are associated with breast cancer risk. Our aim was to use longitudinal data to estimate the extent to which these risk-predicting measures track over time. Methods We collected 4,320 mammograms (age range, 24-83 years) from 970 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study and the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry. Women had on average 4.5 mammograms (range, 1-14). DA, PDA and NDA were measured using the Cumulus software and normalised using the Box-Cox method. Correlations in the normalised risk-predicting measures over time intervals of different lengths were estimated using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling of Gompertz curves. Results Mean normalised DA and PDA were constant with age to the early 40s, decreased over the next two decades, and were almost constant from the mid 60s onwards. Mean normalised NDA increased non-linearly with age. After adjusting for age and BMI, the within-woman correlation estimates for normalised DA were 0.94, 0.93, 0.91, 0.91 and 0.91 for mammograms taken 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 years apart, respectively. Similar correlations were estimated for the age and BMI adjusted normalized PDA and NDA. Conclusion The mammographic measures that predict breast cancer risk are highly correlated over time. Impact This has implications for etiologic research and clinical management whereby women at increased risk could be identified at a young age (e.g. early 40s or even younger) and recommended appropriate screening and prevention strategies. PMID:28062399

Infertility and incident endometrial cancer risk: a pooled analysis from the epidemiology of endometrial cancer consortium (E2C2)

PubMed Central

Yang, H P; Cook, L S; Weiderpass, E; Adami, H-O; Anderson, K E; Cai, H; Cerhan, J R; Clendenen, T V; Felix, A S; Friedenreich, C M; Garcia-Closas, M; Goodman, M T; Liang, X; Lissowska, J; Lu, L; Magliocco, A M; McCann, S E; Moysich, K B; Olson, S H; Petruzella, S; Pike, M C; Polidoro, S; Ricceri, F; Risch, H A; Sacerdote, C; Setiawan, V W; Shu, X O; Spurdle, A B; Trabert, B; Webb, P M; Wentzensen, N; Xiang, Y-B; Xu, Y; Yu, H; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, A; Brinton, L A

2015-01-01

Background: Nulliparity is an endometrial cancer risk factor, but whether or not this association is due to infertility is unclear. Although there are many underlying infertility causes, few studies have assessed risk relations by specific causes. Methods: We conducted a pooled analysis of 8153 cases and 11 713 controls from 2 cohort and 12 case-control studies. All studies provided self-reported infertility and its causes, except for one study that relied on data from national registries. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Nulliparous women had an elevated endometrial cancer risk compared with parous women, even after adjusting for infertility (OR=1.76; 95% CI: 1.59–1.94). Women who reported infertility had an increased risk compared with those without infertility concerns, even after adjusting for nulliparity (OR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.13–1.33). Among women who reported infertility, none of the individual infertility causes were substantially related to endometrial cancer. Conclusions: Based on mainly self-reported infertility data that used study-specific definitions of infertility, nulliparity and infertility appeared to independently contribute to endometrial cancer risk. Understanding residual endometrial cancer risk related to infertility, its causes and its treatments may benefit from large studies involving detailed data on various infertility parameters. PMID:25688738

Comparison of Surgical Outcomes Between Teaching and Nonteaching Hospitals in the Department of Veterans Affairs

PubMed Central

Khuri, Shukri F.; Najjar, Samer F.; Daley, Jennifer; Krasnicka, Barbara; Hossain, Monir; Henderson, William G.; Aust, J. Bradley; Bass, Barbara; Bishop, Michael J.; Demakis, John; DePalma, Ralph; Fabri, Peter J.; Fink, Aaron; Gibbs, James; Grover, Frederick; Hammermeister, Karl; McDonald, Gerald; Neumayer, Leigh; Roswell, Robert H.; Spencer, Jeannette; Turnage, Richard H.

2001-01-01

Objective To determine whether the investment in postgraduate education and training places patients at risk for worse outcomes and higher costs than if medical and surgical care was delivered in nonteaching settings. Summary Background Data The Veterans Health Administration (VA) plays a major role in the training of medical students, residents, and fellows. Methods The database of the VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was analyzed for all major noncardiac operations performed during fiscal years 1997, 1998, and 1999. Teaching status of a hospital was determined on the basis of a background and structure questionnaire that was independently verified by a research fellow. Stepwise logistic regression was used to construct separate models predictive of 30-day mortality and morbidity for each of seven surgical specialties and eight operations. Based on these models, a severity index for each patient was calculated. Hierarchical logistic regression models were then created to examine the relationship between teaching versus nonteaching hospitals and 30-day postoperative mortality and morbidity, after adjusting for patient severity. Results Teaching hospitals performed 81% of the total surgical workload and 90% of the major surgery workload. In most specialties in teaching hospitals, the residents were the primary surgeons in more than 90% of the operations. Compared with nonteaching hospitals, the patient populations in teaching hospitals had a higher prevalence of risk factors, underwent more complex operations, and had longer operation times. Risk-adjusted mortality rates were not different between the teaching and nonteaching hospitals in the specialties and operations studied. The unadjusted complication rate was higher in teaching hospitals in six of seven specialties and four of eight operations. Risk adjustment did not eliminate completely these differences, probably reflecting the relatively poor predictive validity of some of the risk adjustment models for morbidity. Length of stay after major operations was not consistently different between teaching and nonteaching hospitals. Conclusion Compared with nonteaching hospitals, teaching hospitals in the VA perform the majority of complex and high-risk major procedures, with comparable risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rates. Risk-adjusted 30-day morbidity rates in teaching hospitals are higher in some specialties and operations than in nonteaching hospitals. Although this may reflect the weak predictive validity of some of the risk adjustment models for morbidity, it may also represent suboptimal processes and structures of care that are unique to teaching hospitals. Despite good quality of care in teaching hospitals, as evidenced by the 30-day mortality data, efforts should be made to examine further the structures and processes of surgical care prevailing in these hospitals. PMID:11524590

Trends in Survival After In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

PubMed Central

Girotra, Saket; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K.; Spertus, John A.; Li, Yan; Krumholz, Harlan M.; Chan, Paul S.

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Despite numerous advances in resuscitation care in recent years, it remains unknown whether survival and neurological function after in-hospital cardiac arrest has improved over time. METHODS We identified all adults with an index in-hospital cardiac arrest at 374 hospitals in the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between 2000 and 2009. Using multivariable regression, we examined temporal trends in risk-adjusted rates of survival to discharge. Additional analyses explored whether trends: (1) were due to improved survival during the acute resuscitation or post-resuscitation care and (2) occurred at the expense of greater neurological disability among survivors. RESULTS Among 84,625 hospitalized patients with cardiac arrest, 67,135 (79.3%) had an initial rhythm of asystole or pulseless electrical activity while 17,490 (20.7%) had ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia. The proportion of cardiac arrests due to asystole or pulseless electrical activity increased over time (P for trend <0.001). Risk-adjusted rates of survival to discharge in the overall cohort increased from 13.7% in 2000 to 22.4% in 2009 (adjusted rate-ratio per 1-year: 1.04, 95% CI [1.02–1.05]; P for trend <0.001). Survival improvement was similar in both rhythm groups and largely due to improved survival from the acute resuscitation (risk-adjusted rates: 42.7% in 2000, 54.1% in 2009; adjusted rate-ratio per 1-year: 1.03, 95% CI [1.02–1.04]; P for trend <0.001). Importantly, rates of neurological disability among survivors decreased over time (risk-adjusted rates: 32.9% in 2000, 28.1% in 2009; P for trend=0.02). CONCLUSIONS Both survival and neurological outcomes after in-hospital cardiac arrest have improved over the past decade. PMID:23150959

Impact of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Conditions on the Risk of Stroke in Japan

PubMed Central

Honjo, Kaori; Iso, Hiroyasu; Nakaya, Tomoki; Hanibuchi, Tomoya; Ikeda, Ai; Inoue, Manami; Sawada, Norie; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2015-01-01

Background Neighborhood deprivation has been shown in many studies to be an influential factor in cardiovascular disease risk. However, no previous studies have examined the effect of neighborhood socioeconomic conditions on the risk of stroke in Asian countries. Methods This study investigated whether neighborhood deprivation was associated with the risk of stroke and stroke death using data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. We calculated the adjusted hazard ratios of stroke mortality (mean follow-up, 16.4 years) and stroke incidence (mean follow-up, 15.4 years) according to the area deprivation index (ADI) among 90 843 Japanese men and women aged 40–69 years. A Cox proportional-hazard regression model using a shared frailty model was applied. Results The adjusted hazard ratios of stroke incidence, in order of increasing deprivation with reference to the least deprived area, were 1.16 (95% CI, 1.04–1.29), 1.12 (95% CI, 1.00–1.26), 1.18 (95% CI, 1.02–1.35), and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.01–1.41), after adjustment for individual socioeconomic conditions. Behavioral and psychosocial factors attenuated the association, but the association remained significant. The associations were explained by adjusting for biological cardiovascular risk factors. No significant association with stroke mortality was identified. Conclusions Our results indicate that the neighborhood deprivation level influences stroke incidence in Japan, suggesting that area socioeconomic conditions could be a potential target for public health intervention to reduce the risk of stroke. PMID:25757802

Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

2013-01-01

Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

Neighborhood-Level Racial/Ethnic Residential Segregation and Incident Cardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

PubMed Central

Kershaw, Kiarri N.; Osypuk, Theresa L.; Do, D. Phuong; De Chavez, Peter J.; Roux, Ana V. Diez

2014-01-01

Background Previous research suggests neighborhood-level racial/ethnic residential segregation is linked to health, but it has not been studied prospectively in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods and Results Participants were 1,595 non-Hispanic Black, 2,345 non-Hispanic White, and 1,289 Hispanic adults from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis free of CVD at baseline (ages 45-84). Own-group racial/ethnic residential segregation was assessed using the Gi∗ statistic, a measure of how the neighborhood racial/ethnic composition deviates from surrounding counties’ racial/ethnic composition. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for incident CVD (first definite angina, probable angina followed by revascularization, myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, CHD death, stroke, or stroke death) over 10.2 median years of follow-up. Among Blacks, each standard deviation increase in Black segregation was associated with a 12% higher hazard of developing CVD after adjusting for demographics (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.02, 1.22). This association persisted after adjustment for neighborhood-level characteristics, individual socioeconomic position, and CVD risk factors (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.23). For Whites, higher White segregation was associated with lower CVD risk after adjusting for demographics (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.96), but not after further adjustment for neighborhood characteristics. Segregation was not associated with CVD risk among Hispanics. Similar results were obtained after adjusting for time-varying segregation and covariates. Conclusions The association of residential segregation with cardiovascular risk varies according to race/ethnicity. Further work is needed to better characterize the individual- and neighborhood-level pathways linking segregation to CVD risk. PMID:25447044

Breastfeeding Concerns at 3 and 7 Days Postpartum and Feeding Status at 2 Months

PubMed Central

Wagner, Erin A.; Chantry, Caroline J.; Dewey, Kathryn G.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: We characterized breastfeeding concerns from open-text maternal responses and determined their association with stopping breastfeeding by 60 days (stopping breastfeeding) and feeding any formula between 30 and 60 days (formula use). METHODS: We assessed breastfeeding support, intentions, and concerns in 532 expectant primiparas and conducted follow-up interviews at 0, 3, 7, 14, 30, and 60 days postpartum. We calculated adjusted relative risk (ARR) and adjusted population attributable risk (PAR) for feeding outcomes by concern category and day, adjusted for feeding intentions and education. RESULTS: In 2946 interviews, 4179 breastfeeding concerns were reported, comprising 49 subcategories and 9 main categories. Ninety-two percent of participants reported ≥1 concern at day 3, with the most predominant being difficulty with infant feeding at breast (52%), breastfeeding pain (44%), and milk quantity (40%). Concerns at any postpartum interview were significantly associated with increased risk of stopping breastfeeding and formula use, with peak ARR at day 3 (eg, stopping breastfeeding ARR [95% confidence interval] = 9.2 [3.0–infinity]). The concerns yielding the largest adjusted PAR for stopping breastfeeding were day 7 “infant feeding difficulty” (adjusted PAR = 32%) and day 14 “milk quantity” (adjusted PAR = 23%). CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding concerns are highly prevalent and associated with stopping breastfeeding. Priority should be given to developing strategies for lowering the overall occurrence of breastfeeding concerns and resolving, in particular, infant feeding and milk quantity concerns occurring within the first 14 days postpartum. PMID:24062375

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Malaysian Chinese: occupational exposures to particles, formaldehyde and heat.

PubMed

Armstrong, R W; Imrey, P B; Lye, M S; Armstrong, M J; Yu, M C; Sani, S

2000-12-01

During 1990-1992, 282 Chinese residents of Selangor and the Federal Territory, Malaysia with histologically confirmed nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) were interviewed about occupational history, diet, alcohol consumption, and tobacco use, as were an equal number of Malaysian Chinese population controls, pair-matched to cases by age and sex. Exposures to 20 kinds of workplace substances, solar and industrial heat, and cigarette smoke, were analysed by univariate and multivariate methods. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma was associated with occupational exposures to construction, metal and wood dusts; motor fuel and oil; paints and varnishes; certain other chemicals; industrial heat; solar heat from outdoor occupations; certain smokes; cigarette smoking; and childhood exposure to parental smoking. After adjustment for risk from diet and cigarette smoke, only wood dust (OR = 2.36; 95% CI : 1.33- 4.19), and industrial heat (OR = 2.21; 95% CI : 1.12-4.33) remained clearly associated. Wood dust remained statistically significant after further adjustment for social class. No significant crude or adjusted association was found between NPC and formaldehyde (adjusted OR = 0.71; 95% CI : 0.34-1.43). This study supports previous findings that some occupational inhalants are risk factors for NPC. The statistical effect of wood dust remained substantial after adjustment for diet, cigarette smoke, and social class. Intense industrial heat emerged as a previously unreported risk factor, statistically significant even after adjustment for diet and cigarette smoke. No association was found between NPC and formaldehyde.

Appraisal and coping as mediators of the effects of cumulative risk on preadolescent adjustment

PubMed Central

Thompson, Stephanie F.; Lengua, Liliana J.; Garcia, Connie Meza

2016-01-01

This study examined the concurrent and longitudinal relations among cumulative risk, appraisal, coping, and adjustment. Longitudinal path models were tested in a community sample of 316 children in preadolescence to examine hypotheses that threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediate the effects of cumulative risk on child adjustment, whereas positive appraisal and active coping were hypothesized to predict better adjustment independently. Children and their mothers were assessed during in-home interviews at three time points at one-year intervals. Children reported on appraisal and coping strategies. Mothers and children reported on child adjustment problems and positive adjustment. Rank-order changes in appraisal and coping predicted rank-order changes in adjustment. Cumulative risk was concurrently related to higher threat appraisal and avoidant coping at each time point. Threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediated the relations of cumulative risk to rank-order changes in adjustment. There is specificity in the relations of cumulative risk to threat appraisal and avoidant coping, whereas positive appraisal and active coping are independent of risk and operate as individual resource factors. PMID:27110087

Children's Skin Conductance Reactivity as a Mechanism of Risk in the Context of Parental Depressive Symptoms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cummings, E. Mark; El-Sheikh, Mona; Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Keller, Peggy S.

2007-01-01

Background: Children's physiological reactivity was examined as a moderator of relations between parental dysphoria and child adjustment problems, addressing gaps in the study of child characteristics as risk processes. Method: One hundred fifty-seven children (86 boys, 71 girls) were assessed twice over a two-year interval. Skin conductance level…

Non-alcoholic beverage and caffeine consumption and mortality: the Leisure World Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Paganini-Hill, Annlia; Kawas, Claudia H; Corrada, María M

2007-01-01

Objective To examine the effects of non-alcoholic beverage and caffeine consumption on all-cause mortality in older adults. Methods The Leisure World Cohort Study is a prospective study of residents of a California retirement community. A baseline postal health survey included details on coffee, tea, milk, soft drink, and chocolate consumption. Participants were followed for 23 years (1981–2004). Risk ratios (RRs) of death were calculated using Cox regression for 8644 women and 4980 men (median age at entry, 74 years) and adjusted for age, gender and multiple potential confounders. Results Caffeine consumption exhibited a U-shaped mortality curve. Moderate caffeine consumers had a significantly reduced risk of death (multivariable-adjusted RR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.90, 0.99 for 100–199 mg/day and RR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.85, 0.94 for 200–399 mg/day compared with those consuming <50 mg/day). Individuals who drank more than 1 can/week of artificially sweetened (but not sugar-sweetened) soft drink (cola and other) had a 8% increased risk (95% CI: 1.01–1.16). Neither milk nor tea had a significant effect on mortality after multivariable adjustment. Conclusions Moderate caffeine consumption appeared beneficial in risking risk of death. Attenuation in the observed associations between mortality and intake of tea and milk with adjustment for potential confounders suggests that such consumption identifies those with other mortality-associated lifestyle and health risks. The increased death risk with consumption of artificially sweetened, but not sugar-sweetened, soft drinks suggests an effect of the sweetener rather than other components of the soft drinks, although residual confounding remains a possibility. PMID:17275898

Lean body mass and risk of incident atrial fibrillation in post-menopausal women

PubMed Central

Azarbal, Farnaz; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Assimes, Themistocles L.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Bea, Jennifer W.; Li, Wenjun; Hlatky, Mark A.; Larson, Joseph C.; LeBlanc, Erin S.; Albert, Christine M.; Nassir, Rami; Martin, Lisa W.; Perez, Marco V.

2016-01-01

Aims High body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study was to determine whether lean body mass (LBM) predicts AF. Methods and results The Women's Health Initiative is a study of post-menopausal women aged 50–79 enrolled at 40 US centres from 1994 to 1998. A subset of 11 393 participants at three centres underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Baseline demographics and clinical histories were recorded. Incident AF was identified using hospitalization records and diagnostic codes from Medicare claims. A multivariable Cox hazard regression model adjusted for demographic and clinical risk factors was used to evaluate associations between components of body composition and AF risk. After exclusion for prevalent AF or incomplete data, 8832 participants with an average age of 63.3 years remained for analysis. Over the 11.6 years of average follow-up time, 1035 women developed incident AF. After covariate adjustment, all measures of LBM were independently associated with higher rates of AF: total LBM [hazard ratio (HR) 1.24 per 5 kg increase, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.14–1.34], central LBM (HR 1.51 per 5 kg increase, 95% CI 1.31–1.74), and peripheral LBM (HR 1.39 per 5 kg increase, 95% CI 1.19–1.63). The association between total LBM and AF remained significant after adjustment for total fat mass (HR 1.22 per 5 kg increase, 95% CI 1.13–1.31). Conclusion Greater LBM is a strong independent risk factor for AF. After adjusting for obesity-related risk factors, the risk of AF conferred by higher BMI is primarily driven by the association between LBM and AF. PMID:26371115

Is There Room for Prevention? Examining the Effect of Outpatient Facility Type on the Risk of Surgical Site Infection.

PubMed

Parikh, Rishi; Pollock, Daniel; Sharma, Jyotirmay; Edwards, Jonathan

2016-10-01

OBJECTIVE We compared risk for surgical site infection (SSI) following surgical breast procedures among 2 patient groups: those whose procedures were performed in ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) and those whose procedures were performed in hospital-based outpatient facilities. DESIGN Cohort study using National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) SSI data for breast procedures performed from 2010 to 2014. METHODS Unconditional multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the association between facility type and breast SSI, adjusting for American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification, patient age, and duration of procedure. Other potential adjustment factors examined were wound classification, anesthesia use, and gender. RESULTS Among 124,021 total outpatient breast procedures performed between 2010 and 2014, 110,987 procedure reports submitted to the NHSN provided complete covariate data and were included in the analysis. Breast procedures performed in ASCs carried a lower risk of SSI compared with those performed in hospital-based outpatient settings. For patients aged ≤51 years, the adjusted risk ratio was 0.36 (95% CI, 0.25-0.50) and for patients >51 years old, the adjusted risk ratio was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.21-0.49). CONCLUSIONS SSI risk following breast procedures was significantly lower among ASC patients than among hospital-based outpatients. These findings should be placed in the context of study limitations, including the possibility of incomplete ascertainment of SSIs and shortcomings in the data available to control for differences in patient case mix. Additional studies are needed to better understand the role of procedural settings in SSI risk following breast procedures and to identify prevention opportunities. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-7.

Associations of cardiovascular risk factors in Al Ain- United Arab Emirates

PubMed Central

Baynouna, Latifa M; Revel, Anthony D; Nagelkerke, Nico JD; Jaber, Tariq M; Omar, Aziza O; Ahmed, Nader M; Nazirudeen, Mohammad K; Al Sayed, Mamdouh F; Nour, Fuad A; Abdouni, Sameh

2009-01-01

Background Over the last 30 years the citizens of the United Arab Emirates have experienced major changes in life-style secondary to increased affluence. Currently, 1 in 5 adults have diabetes mellitus, but the associations (clustering) among risk factors, as well as the relevance of the concept of the metabolic syndrome, in this population is unknown. Aim To investigate the prevalence and associations among cardiovascular risk factors in this population, and explore to what extent associations can be explained by the metabolic syndrome according to ATP-III criteria. Method A community based survey, of conventional risk factors for cardiovascular disease was conducted among 817 national residents of Al Ain city, UAE. These factors were fasting blood sugar, blood pressure, lipid profile, BMI, waist circumference, smoking, or CHD family history. Odds ratios between risks factors, both unadjusted and adjusted for age and sex as well as adjusted for age, sex, and metabolic syndrome were calculated. Results Various risk factors were positively associated in this population; associations that are mostly unexplained by confounding by age and sex. For example, hypertension and diabetes were still strongly related (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.7–3.7) after adjustment. An increased waist circumference showed similar relationship with hypertension (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.5–3.5). Diabetes was related to an increased BMI (OR 1.5; 96% CI 1.0–2.3). Smoking was also associated with diabetes (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0–3.3). Further adjustment for metabolic syndrome reduced some associations but several remained. Conclusion In this population risk-factors cluster, but associations do not appear to be explained by the presence/absence of the ATP-III metabolic syndrome. Associations provide valuable information in planning interventions for screening and management. PMID:19371412

Increased Risk of HIV-1 Transmission in Pregnancy: A Prospective Study among African HIV-1 Serodiscordant Couples

PubMed Central

MUGO, Nelly R.; HEFFRON, Renee; DONNELL, Deborah; WALD, Anna; WERE, Edwin O.; REES, Helen; CELUM, Connie; KIARIE, James N.; COHEN, Craig R.; KAYINTEKORE, Kayitesi; BAETEN, Jared M.

2011-01-01

Background Physiologic and behavioral changes during pregnancy may alter HIV-1 susceptibility and infectiousness. Prospective studies exploring pregnancy and HIV-1 acquisition risk in women have found inconsistent results. No study has explored the effect of pregnancy on HIV-1 transmission risk from HIV-1 infected women to male partners. Methods In a prospective study of African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples, we evaluated the relationship between pregnancy and the risk of 1) HIV-1 acquisition among women and 2) HIV-1 transmission from women to men. Results 3321 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples were enrolled, 1085 (32.7%) with HIV-1 susceptible female partners and 2236 (67.3%) with susceptible male partners. HIV-1 incidence in women was 7.35 versus 3.01 per 100 person-years during pregnant and non-pregnant periods (hazard ratio [HR] 2.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33–4.09). This effect was attenuated and not statistically significant after adjusting for sexual behavior and other confounding factors (adjusted HR 1.71, 95% CI 0.93–3.12). HIV-1 incidence in male partners of infected women was 3.46 versus 1.58 per 100 person-years when their partners were pregnant versus not pregnant (HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.22–4.39). This effect was not attenuated in adjusted analysis (adjusted HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.26–4.85). Conclusions HIV-1 risk increased two-fold during pregnancy. Elevated risk of HIV-1 acquisition in pregnant women appeared in part to be explained by behavioral and other factors. This is the first study to show pregnancy increased the risk of female-to-male HIV-1 transmission, which may reflect biological changes of pregnancy that could increase HIV-1 infectiousness. PMID:21785321

Lifestyle variables and the risk of myocardial infarction in the General Practice Research Database

PubMed Central

Delaney, Joseph AC; Daskalopoulou, Stella S; Brophy, James M; Steele, Russell J; Opatrny, Lucie; Suissa, Samy

2007-01-01

Background The primary objective of this study is to estimate the association between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of first acute myocardial infarction (AMI). As a secondary objective, we considered the association between other lifestyle variables, smoking and heavy alcohol use, and AMI risk. Methods This study was conducted in the general practice research database (GPRD) which is a database based on general practitioner records and is a representative sample of the United Kingdom population. We matched cases of first AMI as identified by diagnostic codes with up to 10 controls between January 1st, 2001 and December 31st, 2005 using incidence density sampling. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. Results We identified 19,353 cases of first AMI which were matched on index date, GPRD practice and age to 192,821 controls. There was a modest amount of missing data in the database, and the patients with missing data had different risks than those with recorded values. We adjusted our analysis for each lifestyle variable jointly and also for age, sex, and number of hospitalizations in the past year. Although a record of underweight (BMI <18.0 kg/m2) did not alter the risk for AMI (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.00; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87–1.11) when compared with normal BMI (18.0–24.9 kg/m2), obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) predicted an increased risk (adjusted OR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.35–1.47). A history of smoking also predicted an increased risk of AMI (adjusted OR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.75–1.87) as did heavy alcohol use (adjusted OR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.06–1.26). Conclusion This study illustrates that obesity, smoking and heavy alcohol use, as recorded during routine care by a general practitioner, are important predictors of an increased risk of a first AMI. In contrast, low BMI does not increase the risk of a first AMI. PMID:18088433

Psychosocial Adjustment and Perceived Risk Among Adolescent Girls From Families With BRCA1/2 or Breast Cancer History

PubMed Central

Patrick-Miller, Linda; Schwartz, Lisa A.; Egleston, Brian L.; Henry-Moss, Dare; Domchek, Susan M.; Daly, Mary B.; Tuchman, Lisa; Moore, Cynthia; Rauch, Paula K.; Shorter, Rebecca; Karpink, Kelsey; Sands, Colleen Burke

2016-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the impact of breast cancer family history and maternal BRCA1/2 mutation on the psychosocial adjustment and perceived risk in girls age 11 to 19 years old. Materials and Methods Girls age 11 to 19 years old with one or more relatives with breast cancer or a familial BRCA1/2 mutation (breast cancer family history [BCFH] positive, n = 208; n = 69 with BRCA1/2-positive mother), peers (BCFH negative, n = 112), and their mothers completed assessments of psychosocial adjustment, breast cancer–specific distress, and perceived risk of breast cancer. Results General psychosocial adjustment did not differ significantly between BCFH-positive and BCFH-negative girls, either by self-report or mother report, except for higher self-esteem among BCFH-positive girls (P = .01). BCFH-positive girls had higher breast cancer–specific distress than BCFH-negative girls (P < .001), but girls from BRCA1/2-positive families did not differ from other BCFH-positive peers. BCFH-positive girls were more likely to report themselves at increased self-risk for breast cancer in adulthood than BCFH-negative peers (74% v 33%, respectively; P ≤ .001). Girls from BRCA1/2-positive families were more likely than other BCFH-positive and BCFH-negative peers to report themselves at increased risk (P < .001). In all groups, perceived risk of breast cancer was associated with older age. Higher breast cancer–specific distress among adolescent girls was associated with higher self-perceived risk of breast cancer and higher maternal breast cancer–specific distress. Conclusion Adolescent girls from BRCA1/2-positive and breast cancer families have higher self-esteem and do not have poorer psychosocial adjustment than peers. However, they do experience greater breast cancer–specific distress and perceived risk of breast cancer, particularly among older girls. Understanding the impact is important to optimize responses to growing up in families at familial and genetic risk for breast cancer, particularly given the debate over the genetic testing of children for cancer susceptibility in adulthood. PMID:27551110

The flaws in the detail of an observational study on transcatheter aortic valve implantation versus surgical aortic valve replacement in intermediate-risks patients.

PubMed

Barili, Fabio; Freemantle, Nick; Folliguet, Thierry; Muneretto, Claudio; De Bonis, Michele; Czerny, Martin; Obadia, Jean Francois; Al-Attar, Nawwar; Bonaros, Nikolaos; Kluin, Jolanda; Lorusso, Roberto; Punjabi, Prakash; Sadaba, Rafael; Suwalski, Piotr; Benedetto, Umberto; Böning, Andreas; Falk, Volkmar; Sousa-Uva, Miguel; Kappetein, Pieter A; Menicanti, Lorenzo

2017-06-01

The PARTNER group recently published a comparison between the latest generation SAPIEN 3 transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) system (Edwards Lifesciences, Irvine, CA, USA) and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in intermediate-risk patients, apparently demonstrating superiority of the TAVI and suggesting that TAVI might be the preferred treatment method in this risk class of patients. Nonetheless, assessment of the non-randomized methodology used in this comparison reveals challenges that should be addressed in order to elucidate the validity of the results. The study by Thourani and colleagues showed several major methodological concerns: suboptimal methods in propensity score analysis with evident misspecification of the propensity scores (PS; no adjustment for the most significantly different covariates: left ventricular ejection fraction, moderate-severe mitral regurgitation and associated procedures); use of PS quintiles rather than matching; inference on not-adjusted Kaplan-Meier curves, although the authors correctly claimed for the need of balancing score adjusting for confounding factors in order to have unbiased estimates of the treatment effect; evidence of poor fit; lack of data on valve-related death.These methodological flaws invalidate direct comparison between treatments and cannot support authors' conclusions that TAVI with SAPIEN 3 in intermediate-risk patients is superior to surgery and might be the preferred treatment alternative to surgery. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Association of 1,5-anhydroglucitol with diabetes and microvascular conditions

PubMed Central

Selvin, Elizabeth; Rawlings, Andreea M.; Grams, Morgan; Klein, Ronald; Steffes, Michael; Coresh, Josef

2014-01-01

Background 1,5-anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG) is inversely related to hyperglycemia and may be a useful indicator of short-term (1-2 week) hyperglycemia and glycemic excursions but its prognostic value is unclear. We sought to evaluate the associations of 1,5-AG with risk of diabetes and microvascular disease. Methods We measured 1,5-AG in blood samples from over 10,000 participants in the ARIC Study (baseline, 1990-1992) and characterized the independent associations with prevalent retinopathy, and with incident chronic kidney disease and incident diabetes during approximately 20 years of follow-up. Results We found that 1,5-AG was associated with prevalent retinopathy, driven primarily by the strong association in persons with diagnosed diabetes: adjusted OR 11.26 (95%CI 6.17-20.53) for <6 ug/mL compared to 1,5-AG ≥10 ug/mL. This result remained significant after further adjustment for HbA1c (OR 4.85, 95%CI 2.42-9.74). In persons with diagnosed diabetes: low 1,5-AG (<6 ug/mL vs ≥10 ug/mL) was also associated with a greater than 2-fold increased risk of incident chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR 2.83, 95% CI 2.15-3.74) and remained significant after adjustment for HbA1c (HR 1.43, 95%CI 1.02-2.00). Nondiabetic participants with high 1,5-AG (≥ 10 ug/mL) had the lowest prevalence of retinopathy and lowest risk of kidney disease. In persons without diagnosed diabetes at baseline, 1,5-AG <10 ug/mL was also associated with incident diabetes (adjusted HR 2.29, 95%CI 2.03-2.58). Conclusions 1,5-AG was associated with long-term risk of important microvascular outcomes, particularly in persons with diagnosed diabetes and even after adjustment for HbA1c. Our results suggest 1,5-AG may capture risk information associated with hyperglycemic excursions. PMID:25200356

Effectiveness of Booster Seats Compared With No Restraint or Seat Belt Alone for Crash Injury Prevention

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaoguang; Griffin, Russell; McGwin, Gerald; Allison, David B.; Heymsfield, Steven B.; He, Wei; Zhu, Shankuan

2013-01-01

Objectives The objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of belt-positioning booster seats, compared with no restraint use and with seat belt use only, during motor vehicle crashes among U.S. children. Methods This was a retrospective matched cohort study with data from the 1998 through 2009 National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) Crashworthiness Data System (CDS). The study sample consisted of children aged 0 to 10 years who were not seated in the front seat of the vehicle. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the risk of overall, fatal, and regional body injury. Results Children using seat belts in belt-positioning booster seats experienced less overall injury (Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 0, adjusted risk ratio [RR] = 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.55 to 0.96; Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] score of 2 or higher, adjusted RR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.16 to 0.58; ISS > 8, adjusted RR = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.06 to 0.56), and less injury in most body regions except the neck (adjusted RR = 4.79, 95% CI = 1.43 to 16.00) than did children with no restraint use. Children using seat belts in belt-positioning booster seats had an equal risk of injury but higher risks of neck (adjusted RR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.02 to 3.40) and thorax (adjusted RR = 2.86, 95% CI = 1.33 to 6.15) injury than did children restrained by seat belts only. Conclusions Children using belt-positioning booster seats appear to experience a higher risk of AIS > 0 injury to the neck and thorax than do children using seat belts only. Future research should examine whether the observed increase in neck and thorax injuries can be attributed to improper use of booster seats. PMID:24050794

Trends in Worker Hearing Loss by Industry Sector, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Masterson, Elizabeth A.; Deddens, James A.; Themann, Christa L.; Bertke, Stephen; Calvert, Geoffrey M.

2015-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of hearing loss for noise-exposed U.S. workers by industry sector and 5-year time period, covering 30 years. Methods Audiograms for 1.8 million workers from 1981–2010 were examined. Incidence and prevalence were estimated by industry sector and time period. The adjusted risk of incident hearing loss within each time period and industry sector as compared with a reference time period was also estimated. Results The adjusted risk for incident hearing loss decreased over time when all industry sectors were combined. However, the risk remained high for workers in Healthcare and Social Assistance, and the prevalence was consistently high for Mining and Construction workers. Conclusions While progress has been made in reducing the risk of incident hearing loss within most industry sectors, additional efforts are needed within Mining, Construction and Healthcare and Social Assistance. PMID:25690583

Interactions of central obesity with rs3918242 on risk of non-alcoholic fat liver disease: a preliminary case-control study.

PubMed

Wu, Pengbo; Hua, Yonglong; Tan, Shiyun; Li, Ming; Shu, Yongxiang; Fang, Guo

2015-01-01

NAFLD is a complex disease characterized by inflammation and insulin resistance which is determined by an interaction of genetics and environmental factors. MMP gene has been implicated in relation to inflammation and insulin resistance. The preliminary case-control study aimed to investigate the association between Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-9-1562C/T (rs3918242), MMP-2-1306C/T (rs243865) and risk of NAFLD and to further evaluate the interactions of central obesity with rs3918242 and rs243865. Two variants, rs3918242 and rs243865, were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction -restriction fragment length polymorphism. Gene-environment interactions on risk of NAFLD was preliminarily investigated by generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) and further confirmed by unconditional logistic regression methods. After adjusting for covariates, increased risk of NAFLD were observed in subjects carrying TT/CT genotypes in rs3918242 ((Adjust)OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.11, P=0.006). However, decreased risk of non-alcoholic fat liver disease was found when MMP-2 rs243865 (TT/CT) genotype carriers compared with CC carrier ((Adjust)OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.72, P=0.000).Interactions of central obesity with rs3918242 was preliminarily found by GMDR, with a maximum prediction accuracy (67.61%) and a maximum Cross-validation Consistency (10/10).The unconditional logistic regression method indicated central obesity-positive subject with genotype TT/CT had 4.54 times risk of NAFLD compared to central obesity-negative subjects with genotype CC (OR(add)(a)=4.54, 95% CI: 2.81, 7.21, P(add)(a)=0.000), which further confirmed the interactions. The results indicate that both rs3918242 and rs243865 is associated with risk of NAFLD. Furthermore, rs3918242 and central obesity have synergistic effects on risk of NAFLD.

Preoperative anemia and postoperative outcomes after hepatectomy

PubMed Central

Tohme, Samer; Varley, Patrick R.; Landsittel, Douglas P.; Chidi, Alexis P.; Tsung, Allan

2015-01-01

Background Preoperative anaemia is associated with adverse outcomes after surgery but outcomes after liver surgery specifically are not well established. We aimed to analyze the incidence of and effects of preoperative anemia on morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing liver resection. Methods All elective hepatectomies performed for the period 2005–2012 recorded in the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database were evaluated. We obtained anonymized data for 30-day mortality and major morbidity (one or more major complication), demographics, and preoperative and perioperative risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess the adjusted effect of anemia, which was defined as (hematocrit <39% in men, <36% in women), on postoperative outcomes. Results We obtained data for 12,987 patients, of whom 4260 (32.8%) had preoperative anemia. Patients with preoperative anemia experienced higher postoperative major morbidity and mortality rates compared to those without anemia. After adjustment for predefined variables, preoperative anemia was an independent risk factor for postoperative major morbidity (adjusted OR 1.21, 1.09–1.33). After adjustment, there was no significant difference in postoperative mortality for patients with or without preoperative anemia (adjusted OR 0.88, 0.66–1.16). Conclusion Preoperative anemia is independently associated with an increased risk of major morbidity in patients undergoing hepatectomy. Therefore, it is crucial to readdress preoperative blood management in anemic patients prior to hepatectomy. PMID:27017165

Confounding adjustment in comparative effectiveness research conducted within distributed research networks.

PubMed

Toh, Sengwee; Gagne, Joshua J; Rassen, Jeremy A; Fireman, Bruce H; Kulldorff, Martin; Brown, Jeffrey S

2013-08-01

A distributed research network (DRN) of electronic health care databases, in which data reside behind the firewall of each data partner, can support a wide range of comparative effectiveness research (CER) activities. An essential component of a fully functional DRN is the capability to perform robust statistical analyses to produce valid, actionable evidence without compromising patient privacy, data security, or proprietary interests. We describe the strengths and limitations of different confounding adjustment approaches that can be considered in observational CER studies conducted within DRNs, and the theoretical and practical issues to consider when selecting among them in various study settings. Several methods can be used to adjust for multiple confounders simultaneously, either as individual covariates or as confounder summary scores (eg, propensity scores and disease risk scores), including: (1) centralized analysis of patient-level data, (2) case-centered logistic regression of risk set data, (3) stratified or matched analysis of aggregated data, (4) distributed regression analysis, and (5) meta-analysis of site-specific effect estimates. These methods require different granularities of information be shared across sites and afford investigators different levels of analytic flexibility. DRNs are growing in use and sharing of highly detailed patient-level information is not always feasible in DRNs. Methods that incorporate confounder summary scores allow investigators to adjust for a large number of confounding factors without the need to transfer potentially identifiable information in DRNs. They have the potential to let investigators perform many analyses traditionally conducted through a centralized dataset with detailed patient-level information.

42 CFR 422.264 - Calculation of savings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...), adjusted using the factors described in paragraph (c) of this section. (3) The risk adjusted MA region... the upcoming calendar year the risk adjustment factors described in paragraph (c)(1) or (c)(2) of this... of calculating savings for MA local plans CMS has the authority to apply risk adjustment factors that...

42 CFR 422.264 - Calculation of savings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...), adjusted using the factors described in paragraph (c) of this section. (3) The risk adjusted MA region... the upcoming calendar year the risk adjustment factors described in paragraph (c)(1) or (c)(2) of this... of calculating savings for MA local plans CMS has the authority to apply risk adjustment factors that...

Case–control study of paternal occupation and childhood leukaemia in Great Britain, 1962–2006

PubMed Central

Keegan, T J; Bunch, K J; Vincent, T J; King, J C; O'Neill, K A; Kendall, G M; MacCarthy, A; Fear, N T; MFG, Murphy

2012-01-01

Background: Paternal occupational exposures have been proposed as a risk factor for childhood leukaemia. This study investigates possible associations between paternal occupational exposure and childhood leukaemia in Great Britain. Methods: The National Registry of Childhood Tumours provided all cases of childhood leukaemia born and diagnosed in Great Britain between 1962 and 2006. Controls were matched on sex, period of birth and birth registration subdistrict. Fathers' occupations were assigned to 1 or more of 33 exposure groups. Social class was derived from father's occupation at the time of the child's birth. Results: A total of 16 764 cases of childhood leukaemia were ascertained. One exposure group, paternal social contact, was associated with total childhood leukaemia (odds ratio 1.14, 1.05–1.23); this association remained significant when adjusted for social class. The subtypes lymphoid leukaemia (LL) and acute myeloid leukaemia showed increased risk with paternal exposure to social contact before adjustment for social class. Risk of other leukaemias was significantly increased by exposure to electromagnetic fields, persisting after adjustment for social class. For total leukaemia, the risks for exposure to lead and exhaust fumes were significantly <1. Occupationally derived social class was associated with risk of LL, with the risk being increased in the higher social classes. Conclusion: Our results showed some support for a positive association between childhood leukaemia risk and paternal occupation involving social contact. Additionally, LL risk increased with higher paternal occupational social class. PMID:22968649

Mortality and prostate cancer risk in 19,598 men after surgery for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

PubMed

Holman, C D; Wisniewski, Z S; Semmens, J B; Rouse, I L; Bass, A J

1999-07-01

To examine postoperative mortality and prostate cancer risk after the first prostatectomy for benign prostatic hypertrophy over a 17-year period in a population-based cohort of men in Western Australia, using improved methods to adjust for comorbidity. The relative survival from death and prostate cancer incidence was calculated against the background population rates. The outcomes of transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) and open prostatectomy (OP) were compared adjusting for calendar year, age, admission type and comorbidity using Cox regression. Fractional polynomials were used to take account of nonlinearity in confounder effects. At 10 years, the relative survival was 116.5% in TURP patients and 123.5% after OP. Adjusting only for confounding by age, calendar year and admission type, TURP had a higher mortality rate than OP (rate ratio, RR, 1. 20; 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.34). The RR fell to 1.10 (0.99-1. 23) after adjustment for comorbidity and to 1.07 (0.95-1.19) when accounting for nonlinearity. The relative survival from the incidence of prostate cancer at 10 years was 103.7% after TURP and 104.5% after OP. The RR adjusted for age and calendar year was 1.44 (0.94-2.21) for incidence and 1.37 (0.81-2.29) for prostate cancer mortality. There is at most a small and clinically unimportant excess mortality risk from TURP; any difference could be due to a protective effect of OP on the long-term risk of prostate cancer and a lower rate of repeat prostatectomy.

The protective value of school enrolment against sexually transmitted disease: a study of high‐risk African American adolescent females

PubMed Central

Crosby, Richard A; DiClemente, Ralph J; Wingood, Gina M; Salazar, Laura F; Rose, Eve; Sales, Jessica M

2007-01-01

Objective To identify whether school enrolment is protective against laboratory‐confirmed diagnosis of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and against a spectrum of sexual risk factors. Methods A cross‐sectional study of 715 African‐American adolescent females (15–21 years old) was conducted. Data collection included an audio‐computer‐assisted self‐interview lasting about 60 min and a self‐collected vaginal swab for nucleic acid amplification testing of Trichomonas vaginalis, Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Results In total, 65% were enrolled in school. After adjusting for age and whether adolescents resided with a family member, those not enrolled were twice as likely to test positive for one of the three STDs compared with those enrolled (adjusted OR2; 95% CI 1.38 to 2.91). Similarly, school enrolment was protective against risk factors contributing to STD acquisition. The measures of sexual risk behaviour of 8 of 10, retained significance after adjusting for the covariates, and 2 of the 3 psychosocial mediators retained significance. Conclusion This study provides initial evidence suggesting that keeping high‐risk African‐American adolescent females in school (including forms of school that occur after high‐school graduation) may be important from a public health standpoint. PMID:17569721

45 CFR 153.310 - Risk adjustment administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Risk adjustment administration. 153.310 Section 153.310 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

45 CFR 153.310 - Risk adjustment administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk adjustment administration. 153.310 Section 153.310 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

45 CFR 153.310 - Risk adjustment administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk adjustment administration. 153.310 Section 153.310 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

Decision latitude, job strain, and myocardial infarction: a study of working men in Stockholm. The SHEEP Study Group. Stockholm Heart epidemiology Program.

PubMed Central

Theorell, T; Tsutsumi, A; Hallquist, J; Reuterwall, C; Hogstedt, C; Fredlund, P; Emlund, N; Johnson, J V

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the role of decision latitude and job strain in the etiology of a first myocardial infarction. METHODS: Eligible case patients were all full-time working men 45 to 64 years of age who suffered a first myocardial infarction during the period January 1992 to January 1993 in the greater Stockholm region. Referents were selected from the general population. Participation rates were 82% (case patients) and 75% (referents). RESULTS: Both inferred and self-reported low decision latitude were associated with increased risk of a first myocardial infarction, although this association was weakened after adjustment for social class. A decrease in inferred decision latitude during the 10 years preceding the myocardial infarction was associated with increased risk after all adjustments, including chest pain and social class. The combination of high self-reported demands and low self-reported decision latitude was an independent predictor of risk after all adjustments. CONCLUSIONS: Both negative change in inferred decision latitude and self-reported job strain are important risk indicators in men less than 55 years of age and in blue-collar workers. PMID:9518968

Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

PubMed

Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

2015-04-01

We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy and Risk of Thromboembolic Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bosco, Cecilia, E-mail: Cecilia.t.bosco@kcl.ac.uk; Garmo, Hans; Regional Cancer Centre, Uppsala, Akademiska Sjukhuset, Uppsala

Purpose: To investigate the risk of thromboembolic disease (TED) after radiation therapy (RT) with curative intent for prostate cancer (PCa). Patients and Methods: We identified all men who received RT as curative treatment (n=9410) and grouped according to external beam RT (EBRT) or brachytherapy (BT). By comparing with an age- and county-matched comparison cohort of PCa-free men (n=46,826), we investigated risk of TED after RT using Cox proportional hazard regression models. The model was adjusted for tumor characteristics, demographics, comorbidities, PCa treatments, and known risk factors of TED, such as recent surgery and disease progression. Results: Between 2006 and 2013, 6232more » men with PCa received EBRT, and 3178 underwent BT. A statistically significant association was found between EBRT and BT and risk of pulmonary embolism in the crude analysis. However, upon adjusting for known TED risk factors these associations disappeared. No significant associations were found between BT or EBRT and deep venous thrombosis. Conclusion: Curative RT for prostate cancer using contemporary methodologies was not associated with an increased risk of TED.« less

Effects of past and recent blood pressure and cholesterol level on coronary heart disease and stroke mortality, accounting for measurement error.

PubMed

Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Lanti, Mariapaola; Menotti, Alessandro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Tolonen, Hanna; Nissinen, Aulikki; Nedeljkovic, Srecko; Kafatos, Anthony; Kromhout, Daan

2007-02-15

The authors aimed to quantify the effects of current systolic blood pressure (SBP) and serum total cholesterol on the risk of mortality in comparison with SBP or serum cholesterol 25 years previously, taking measurement error into account. The authors reanalyzed 35-year follow-up data on mortality due to coronary heart disease and stroke among subjects aged 65 years or more from nine cohorts of the Seven Countries Study. The two-step method of Tsiatis et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 1995;90:27-37) was used to adjust for regression dilution bias, and results were compared with those obtained using more commonly applied methods of adjustment for regression dilution bias. It was found that the commonly used univariate adjustment for regression dilution bias overestimates the effects of both SBP and cholesterol compared with multivariate methods. Also, the two-step method makes better use of the information available, resulting in smaller confidence intervals. Results comparing recent and past exposure indicated that past SBP is more important than recent SBP in terms of its effect on coronary heart disease mortality, while both recent and past values seem to be important for effects of cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality and effects of SBP on stroke mortality. Associations between serum cholesterol concentration and risk of stroke mortality are weak.

Identification of Hospital Outliers in Bleeding Complications After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

PubMed Central

Hess, Connie N.; Rao, Sunil V.; McCoy, Lisa A.; Neely, Megan L.; Singh, Mandeep; Spertus, John A.; Krone, Ronald J.; Weaver, W. Douglas; Peterson, Eric D.

2014-01-01

Background Post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) bleeding complications are an important quality metric. We sought to characterize site-level variation in post-PCI bleeding and explore the influence of patient and procedural factors on hospital bleeding performance. Methods and Results Hospital-level bleeding performance was compared pre- and post-adjustment using the newly-revised CathPCI Registry® bleeding risk model (c-index 0.77) among 1,292 NCDR® hospitals performing >50 PCIs from 7/2009–9/2012 (n=1,984,998 procedures). Using random effects models, outlier sites were identified based on 95% confidence intervals around the hospital’s random intercept. Bleeding 72 hours post-PCI was defined as: arterial access site, retroperitoneal, gastrointestinal, or genitourinary bleeding; intracranial hemorrhage; cardiac tamponade; non-bypass surgery-related blood transfusion with pre-procedure hemoglobin ≥8 g/dl; or absolute decrease in hemoglobin value ≥3g/dl with pre-procedure hemoglobin ≤16 g/dl. Overall, the median unadjusted post-PCI bleeding rate was 5.2% and varied among hospitals from 2.6%–10.4% (5th, 95th percentiles). Center-level bleeding variation persisted after case-mix adjustment (2.8%–9.5%; 5th, 95th percentiles). While hospitals’ observed and risk-adjusted bleeding ranks were correlated (Spearman’s rho 0.88), individual rankings shifted after risk-adjustment (median Δ rank order ± 91.5; IQR 37.0, 185.5). Outlier classification changed post-adjustment for 29.3%, 16.1%, and 26.5% of low-, non-, and high-outlier sites, respectively. Hospital use of bleeding avoidance strategies (bivalirudin, radial access, or vascular closure device) was associated with risk-adjusted bleeding rates. Conclusions Despite adjustment for patient case-mix, there is wide variation in rates of hospital PCI-related bleeding in the United States. Opportunities may exist for best performers to share practices with other sites. PMID:25424242

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein predicts mortality but not stroke

PubMed Central

Elkind, M S.V.; Luna, J M.; Moon, Y P.; Liu, K M.; Spitalnik, S L.; Paik, M C.; Sacco, R L.

2009-01-01

Objective: To determine whether high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and serum amyloid A (SAA) predict stroke, vascular events, and mortality in a prospective cohort study. Background: Markers of inflammation have been associated with risk of myocardial infarction (MI). Their association with stroke is controversial. Methods: The Northern Manhattan Study includes a stroke-free community-based cohort study in participants aged ≥40 years (median follow-up 7.9 years). hsCRP and SAA were measured using nephelometry. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of markers with risk of ischemic stroke and other outcomes after adjusting for demographics and risk factors. Results: hsCRP measurements were available in 2,240 participants (mean age 68.9 ± 10.1 years; 64.2% women; 18.8% white, 23.5% black, and 55.1% Hispanic). The median hsCRP was 2.5 mg/L. Compared with those with hsCRP <1 mg/L, those with hsCRP >3 mg/L were at increased risk of ischemic stroke in a model adjusted for demographics (HR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.06–2.41), but the effect was attenuated after adjusting for other risk factors (adjusted HR = 1.20, 95% CI 0.78–1.86). hsCRP >3 mg/L was associated with risk of MI (adjusted HR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.04–2.77) and death (adjusted HR = 1.55, 95% CI 1.23–1.96). SAA was not associated with stroke risk. Conclusion: In this multiethnic cohort, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) was not associated with ischemic stroke, but was modestly associated with myocardial infarction and mortality. The value of hsCRP and serum amyloid A may depend on population characteristics such as age and other risk factors. GLOSSARY AHA = American Heart Association; BP = blood pressure; CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; CI = confidence interval; CRP = C-reactive protein; CUMC = Columbia University Medical Center; HR = hazard ratio; hsCRP = high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; IQR = interquartile range; JUPITER = Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin; MI = myocardial infarction; NOMAS = Northern Manhattan Study; SAA = serum amyloid A. PMID:19841382

Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups

PubMed Central

Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

2009-01-01

Background The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Methods Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Results Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. Conclusion It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to improve the reliability of clinical information and the risk-adjustment ability of Case-Mix. PMID:19402913

Lipid Adjustment for Chemical Exposures: Accounting for Concomitant Variables

PubMed Central

Li, Daniel; Longnecker, Matthew P.; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

Background Some environmental chemical exposures are lipophilic and need to be adjusted by serum lipid levels before data analyses. There are currently various strategies that attempt to account for this problem, but all have their drawbacks. To address such concerns, we propose a new method that uses Box-Cox transformations and a simple Bayesian hierarchical model to adjust for lipophilic chemical exposures. Methods We compared our Box-Cox method to existing methods. We ran simulation studies in which increasing levels of lipid-adjusted chemical exposure did and did not increase the odds of having a disease, and we looked at both single-exposure and multiple-exposures cases. We also analyzed an epidemiology dataset that examined the effects of various chemical exposures on the risk of birth defects. Results Compared with existing methods, our Box-Cox method produced unbiased estimates, good coverage, similar power, and lower type-I error rates. This was the case in both single- and multiple-exposure simulation studies. Results from analysis of the birth-defect data differed from results using existing methods. Conclusion Our Box-Cox method is a novel and intuitive way to account for the lipophilic nature of certain chemical exposures. It addresses some of the problems with existing methods, is easily extendable to multiple exposures, and can be used in any analyses that involve concomitant variables. PMID:24051893

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

42 CFR 423.329 - Determination of payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... subsidy payments as provided under paragraph (d) of this section. (b) Health status risk adjustment—(1) Establishment of risk factors. CMS establishes an appropriate methodology for adjusting the standardized bid... risk adjustment factors under § 422.312(a)(1)(ii) of this chapter, CMS publishes the risk adjusters...

42 CFR 423.329 - Determination of payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... subsidy payments as provided under paragraph (d) of this section. (b) Health status risk adjustment—(1) Establishment of risk factors. CMS establishes an appropriate methodology for adjusting the standardized bid... risk adjustment factors under § 422.312(a)(1)(ii) of this chapter, CMS publishes the risk adjusters...

Affordable Care Act risk adjustment: overview, context, and challenges.

PubMed

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses will be able to purchase private health insurance through competitive marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge and the incentive for plans to avoid sicker enrollees. This article--the first of three in the Medicare & Medicaid Research Review--describes the key program goal and issues in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk adjustment methodology, and identifies key choices in how the methodology responds to these issues. The goal of the HHS risk adjustment methodology is to compensate health insurance plans for differences in enrollee health mix so that plan premiums reflect differences in scope of coverage and other plan factors, but not differences in health status. The methodology includes a risk adjustment model and a risk transfer formula that together address this program goal as well as three issues specific to ACA risk adjustment: 1) new population; 2) cost and rating factors; and 3) balanced transfers within state/market. The risk adjustment model, described in the second article, estimates differences in health risks taking into account the new population and scope of coverage (actuarial value level). The transfer formula, described in the third article, calculates balanced transfers that are intended to account for health risk differences while preserving permissible premium differences.

Association of urinary metal profiles with altered glucose levels and diabetes risk: a population-based study in China.

PubMed

Feng, Wei; Cui, Xiuqing; Liu, Bing; Liu, Chuanyao; Xiao, Yang; Lu, Wei; Guo, Huan; He, Meian; Zhang, Xiaomin; Yuan, Jing; Chen, Weihong; Wu, Tangchun

2015-01-01

Elevated heavy metals and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were both associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. However, studies on the associations of heavy metals and essential elements with altered FPG and diabetes risk were limited or conflicting. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential associations of heavy metals and essential trace elements with FPG and diabetes risk among general Chinese population. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the associations of urinary concentrations of 23 metals with FPG, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and diabetes among 2242 community-based Chinese adults in Wuhan. We used the false discovery rate (FDR) method to correct for multiple hypothesis tests. After adjusting for potential confounders, urinary aluminum, titanium, cobalt, nickel, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, strontium, molybdenum, cadmium, antimony, barium, tungsten and lead were associated with altered FPG, IFG or diabetes risk (all P< 0.05); arsenic was only dose-dependently related to diabetes (P< 0.05). After additional adjustment for multiple testing, titanium, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, tungsten and lead were still significantly associated with one or more outcomes (all FDR-adjusted P< 0.05). Our results suggest that multiple metals in urine are associated with FPG, IFG or diabetes risk. Because the cross-sectional design precludes inferences about causality, further prospective studies are warranted to validate our findings.

Fifty-Year Trends in Atrial Fibrillation Prevalence, Incidence, Risk Factors, and Mortality in the Community

PubMed Central

Schnabel, Renate B.; Yin, Xiaoyan; PhilimonGona; Larson, Martin G.; Beiser, Alexa S.; McManus, David D.; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Lubitz, Steven A.; Magnani, Jared W.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; SudhaSeshadri; Wolf, Philip A; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Levy, Daniel

2015-01-01

Summary Background Comprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. Methods We investigated trends in atrial fibrillation incidence, prevalence, and risk factors, and in stroke and mortality following its onset in Framingham Heart Study participants (n=9511) from 1958 to 2007. To accommodate sex differences in atrial fibrillation risk factors and disease manifestations, sex-stratified analyses were performed. Findings During 50 years of observation (202,417 person-years), there were 1,544 new-onset atrial fibrillation cases (46.8% women). We observed about a fourfold increase in the age-adjusted prevalence and more than a tripling in age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation (prevalence 20.4 versus 96.2 per 1000 person-years in men; 13.7 versus 49.4 in women; incidence rates in first versus last decade 3.7 versus 13.4 per 1000 person-years in men; 2.5 versus 8.6 in women, ptrend<0.0001). For atrial fibrillation diagnosed by ECG during routine Framingham examinations, age-adjusted prevalence increased (12.6versus 25.7 per 1000 person-years in men; 8.1 versus 11.8 in women, ptrend<0.0001). The age-adjusted incidence increased, but did not achieve statistical significance. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 73.5% decline in stroke and a 25.4% decline in mortality following atrial fibrillation onset (ptrend=0.0001, ptrend=0.003, respectively). Interpretation Our data suggest that observed trends of increased incidence of atrial fibrillation in the community were partially due to enhanced surveillance. Stroke occurrence and mortality following atrial fibrillation onset declined over the decades, and prevalence increased approximately fourfold. The hazards for atrial fibrillation risk factors remained fairly constant. Our data indicate a need for measures to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programs, and risk factor-specific prevention. PMID:25960110

Association of TP53 codon 72 and CDH1 genetic polymorphisms with colorectal cancer risk in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Rivu, Sanzana Fareen; Apu, Mohd Nazmul Hasan; Shabnaz, Samia; Nahid, Noor Ahmed; Islam, Md Reazul; Al-Mamun, Mir Md Abdullah; Nahar, Zabun; Rabbi, Sikder Nahidul Islam; Ahmed, Maizbha Uddin; Islam, Mohammad Safiqul; Hasnat, Abul

2017-08-01

Till now no pharmacogenetic study of TP53 codon 72 (Arg72Pro) and CDH1 rs16260 (-160C

Genetic variants of SULT1A1 and XRCC1 genes and risk of lung cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Tasnim, Tasnova; Al-Mamun, Mir Md Abdullah; Nahid, Noor Ahmed; Islam, Md Reazul; Apu, Mohd Nazmul Hasan; Bushra, Most Umme; Rabbi, Sikder Nahidul Islam; Nahar, Zabun; Chowdhury, Jakir Ahmed; Ahmed, Maizbha Uddin; Islam, Mohammad Safiqul; Hasnat, Abul

2017-11-01

Lung cancer is one of the most frequently occurring cancers throughout the world as well as in Bangladesh. This study aimed to correlate the prognostic and/or predictive value of functional polymorphisms in SULT1A1 (rs9282861) and XRCC1 (rs25487) genes and lung cancer risk in Bangladeshi population. A case-control study was conducted which comprises 202 lung cancer patients and 242 healthy volunteers taking into account the age, sex, and smoking status. After isolation of genomic DNA, genotyping was done by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method and the lung cancer risk was evaluated as odds ratio that was adjusted for age, sex, and smoking status. A significant association was found between SULT1A1 rs9282861 and XRCC1 rs25487 polymorphisms and lung cancer risk. In case of rs9282861 polymorphism, Arg/His (adjusted odds ratio = 5.06, 95% confidence interval = 3.05-8.41, p < 0.05) and His/His (adjusted odds ratio = 3.88, 95% confidence interval = 2.20-6.82, p < 0.05) genotypes were strongly associated with increased risk of lung cancer in comparison to the Arg/Arg genotype. In case of rs25487 polymorphism, Arg/Gln heterozygote (adjusted odds ratio = 4.57, 95% confidence interval = 2.79-7.46, p < 0.05) and Gln/Gln mutant homozygote (adjusted odds ratio = 4.99, 95% confidence interval = 2.66-9.36, p < 0.05) were also found to be significantly associated with increased risk of lung cancer. This study demonstrates that the presence of His allele and Gln allele in case of SULT1A1 rs9282861 and XRCC1 rs25487, respectively, involve in lung cancer prognosis in Bangladeshi population.

Variations in mortality rates among Canadian neonatal intensive care units

PubMed Central

Sankaran, Koravangattu; Chien, Li-Yin; Walker, Robin; Seshia, Mary; Ohlsson, Arne; Lee, Shoo K.

2002-01-01

Background Most previous reports of variations in mortality rates for infants admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) have involved small groups of subpopulations, such as infants with very low birth weight. Our aim was to examine the incidence and causes of death and the risk-adjusted variation in mortality rates for a large group of infants of all birth weights admitted to Canadian NICUs. Methods We examined the deaths that occurred among all 19 265 infants admitted to 17 tertiary-level Canadian NICUs from January 1996 to October 1997. We used multivariate analysis to examine the risk factors associated with death and the variations in mortality rates, adjusting for risks in the baseline population, severity of illness on admission and whether the infant was outborn (born at a different hospital from the one where the NICU was located). Results The overall mortality rate was 4% (795 infants died). Forty percent of the deaths (n = 318) occurred within 2 days of NICU admission, 50% (n = 397) within 3 days and 75% (n = 596) within 12 days. The major conditions associated with death were gestational age less than 24 weeks (59 deaths [7%]), gestational age 24–28 weeks (325 deaths [41%]), outborn status (340 deaths [42%]), congenital anomalies (270 deaths [34%]), surgery (141 deaths [18%]), infection (108 deaths [14%]), hypoxic–ischemic encephalopathy (128 deaths [16%]) and small for gestational age (i.e., less than the third percentile) (77 deaths [10%]). There was significant variation in the risk-adjusted mortality rates (range 1.6% to 5.5%) among the 17 NICUs. Interpretation Most NICU deaths occurred within the first few days after admission. Preterm birth, outborn status and congenital anomalies were the conditions most frequently associated with death in the NICU. The significant variation in risk-adjusted mortality rates emphasizes the importance of risk adjustment for valid comparison of NICU outcomes. PMID:11826939

Occupational risk factors for Parkinson's disease: a case-control study in Japan

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The evidence for associations between occupational factors and the risk of Parkinson's disease (PD) is inconsistent. We assessed the risk of PD associated with various occupational factors in Japan. Methods We examined 249 cases within 6 years of onset of PD. Control subjects were 369 inpatients and outpatients without neurodegenerative disease. Information on occupational factors was obtained from a self-administered questionnaire. Relative risks of PD were estimated using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) based on logistic regression. Adjustments were made for gender, age, region of residence, educational level, and pack-years of smoking. Results Working in a professional or technical occupation tended to be inversely related to the risk of PD: adjusted OR was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.32-1.06, P = 0.08). According to a stratified analysis by gender, the decreased risk of PD for persons in professional or technical occupations was statistically significant only for men. Adjusted ORs for a professional or technical occupation among men and women were 0.22 (95% CI: 0.06-0.67) and 0.99 (0.47-2.07), respectively, and significant interaction was observed (P = 0.048 for homogeneity of OR). In contrast, risk estimates for protective service occupations and transport or communications were increased, although the results were not statistically significant: adjusted ORs were 2.73 (95% CI: 0.56-14.86) and 1.74 (95% CI: 0.65-4.74), respectively. No statistical significance was seen in data concerning exposure to occupational agents and the risk of PD, although roughly a 2-fold increase in OR was observed for workers exposed to stone or sand. Conclusion The results of our study suggest that occupational factors do not play a substantial etiologic role in this population. However, among men, professional or technical occupations may decrease the risk of PD. PMID:21733194

Tubal Factor Infertility and Perinatal Risk After Assisted Reproductive Technology

PubMed Central

Kawwass, Jennifer F.; Crawford, Sara; Kissin, Dmitry M.; Session, Donna R.; Boulet, Sheree; Jamieson, Denise J.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To assess trends of tubal factor infertility and to evaluate risk of miscarriage and delivery of preterm or low birth weight (LBW) neonates among women with tubal factor infertility using assisted reproductive technology (ART). METHODS We assessed trends of tubal factor infertility among all fresh and frozen, donor, and nondonor ART cycles performed annually in the United States between 2000 and 2010 (N=1,418,774) using the National ART Surveillance System. The data set was then limited to fresh, nondonor in vitro fertilization cycles resulting in pregnancy to compare perinatal outcomes for cycles associated with tubal compared with male factor infertility. We performed bivariate and multivariable analyses controlling for maternal characteristics and calculated adjusted risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS The percentage of ART cycles associated with tubal factor infertility diagnoses decreased from 2000 to 2010 (26.02–14.81%). Compared with male factor infertility, tubal factor portended an increased risk of miscarriage (14.0% compared with 12.7%, adjusted RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04–1.12); risk was increased for both early and late miscarriage. Singleton neonates born to women with tubal factor infertility had an increased risk of pre-term birth (15.8% compared with 11.6%, adjusted RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.20–1.34) and LBW (10.9% compared with 8.5%, adjusted RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.20–1.36). Significant increases in risk persisted for early and late preterm delivery and very low and moderately LBW delivery. A significantly elevated risk was also detected for twin, but not triplet, pregnancies. CONCLUSION Tubal factor infertility, which is decreasing in prevalence in the United States, is associated with an increased risk of miscarriage, preterm birth, and LBW delivery as compared with couples with male factor infertility using ART. PMID:23812461

Perinatal and Family Risk Factors for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in Early Life: A Swedish National Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Sundquist, Kristina; Sieh, Weiva; Winkleby, Marilyn A.; Sundquist, Jan

2012-01-01

Background The incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in early life has increased in recent decades, but the relevant risk factors remain largely unknown. We examined perinatal and family risk factors for NHL in childhood through young adulthood. Methods We conducted a national cohort study of 3 571 574 individuals born in Sweden in 1973–2008 who were followed for incidence of NHL through 2009 (ages 0–37 years). Detailed information on perinatal and family characteristics and NHL diagnoses were obtained from national birth and cancer registries. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between perinatal and family variables and NHL; P values are from two-sided tests. Results There were 936 NHL case patients identified in 66.3 million person-years of follow-up. Independent risk factors for NHL included family history of NHL in either a sibling (adjusted HR = 9.84; 95% CI = 2.46 to 39.41; P = .001) or parent (adjusted HR = 2.36; 95% CI = 1.27 to 4.38; P = .007); high fetal growth (for ≥2 SDs relative to 0 to <1 SD from the mean: adjusted HR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.19 to 2.25; P = .002); older maternal age (adjusted HR for each 5-year increment = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.19; P trend = .004); low birth order (adjusted HR for each increment of one birth = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.84 to 0.99; P trend = .02); and male sex (adjusted HR = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.38 to 1.80; P < .001). Male sex was associated with onset of NHL before 15 years of age but not with later-onset NHL, whereas the other risk factors did not vary by age at diagnosis. No association was found between gestational age at birth, twinning, paternal age, or parental education and NHL. Conclusion In this large national cohort study, family history of NHL, high fetal growth, older maternal age, low birth order, and male sex were independent risk factors for NHL in early life. PMID:22623506

Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on Hospitalization for Heart Failure, Cardiovascular Events, and Death: Outcomes at 4 Years From the Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry.

PubMed

Cavender, Matthew A; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Smith, Sidney C; Eagle, Kim; Ohman, E Magnus; Goto, Shinya; Kuder, Julia; Im, Kyungah; Wilson, Peter W F; Bhatt, Deepak L

2015-09-08

Despite the known association of diabetes mellitus with cardiovascular events, there are few contemporary data on the long-term outcomes from international cohorts of patients with diabetes mellitus. We sought to describe cardiovascular outcomes at 4 years and to identify predictors of these events in patients with diabetes mellitus. The Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry is an international registry of patients at high risk of atherothrombosis or established atherothrombosis. Four-year event rates in patients with diabetes mellitus were determined with the corrected group prognosis method. Of the 45 227 patients in the REACH registry who had follow-up at 4 years, 43.6% (n=19 699) had diabetes mellitus at baseline. The overall risk and hazard ratio (HR) of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke were greater in patients with diabetes compared with patients without diabetes (16.5% versus 13.1%; adjusted HR, 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.35). There was also an increase in both cardiovascular death (8.9% versus 6.0%; adjusted HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.26-1.52) and overall death (14.3% versus 9.9%; adjusted HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.30-1.51). Diabetes mellitus was associated with a 33% greater risk of hospitalization for heart failure (9.4% versus 5.9%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.18-1.50). In patients with diabetes mellitus, heart failure at baseline was independently associated with cardiovascular death (adjusted HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 2.17-2.77; P<0.001) and hospitalization for heart failure (adjusted odds ratio, 4.72; 95% CI, 4.22-5.29; P<0.001). Diabetes mellitus substantially increases the risk of death, ischemic events, and heart failure. Patients with both diabetes mellitus and heart failure are at particularly elevated risk of cardiovascular death, highlighting the need for additional therapies in this high-risk population. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Cigarettes, genetic background, and menopausal timing: the presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms in cytochrome P450 genes is associated with increased risk of natural menopause in European-American smokers

PubMed Central

Butts, Samantha F.; Sammel, Mary D.; Greer, Christine; Rebbeck, Timothy R.; Boorman, David W.; Freeman, Ellen W.

2016-01-01

Objective This study aims to evaluate associations between variations in genes involved in the metabolism of environmental chemicals and steroid hormones and risk of menopause in smokers. Methods Survival analysis was performed on 410 eligible participants from the Penn Ovarian Aging study (ongoing for 14 years), a cohort study of late-reproductive-age women. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the following loci were studied: COMT Val158Met, CYP1B1*4 Asn452Ser, CYP1B1*3 Leu432Val, and CYP3A4*1B. Results Significant interactions between smoking and single nucleotide polymorphisms were observed in European-American carriers of CYP3A4*1B and CYP1B1*3, supporting a greater risk of menopause entry compared with those not carrying these alleles. Among CYP1B1*3 carriers, smokers had a greater risk of menopause entry than nonsmokers (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.26; 95% CI, 1.4–3.67; median time to menopause, 10.42 and 11.07 y, respectively). No association between smoking and menopause was identified in CYP1B1 wild types. Among CYP3A4*1B carriers, smokers were at greater risk for menopause entry than nonsmokers (adjusted HR, 15.1; 95% CI, 3.31–69.2; median time to menopause, 11.36 and 13.91 y, respectively). Risk of menopause entry in CYP3A4 wild types who smoked was far lower (adjusted HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.03–2.44). Heavily smoking CYP1B1*3 carriers (adjusted HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.54–5.84; median time to menopause, 10.41 y) and heavily smoking CYP3A4*1B carriers (adjusted HR, 17.79; 95% CI, 3.21–98.65; median time to menopause, 5.09 y) had the greatest risk of menopause entry. Conclusions Our finding that the risk of menopause entry in European-American smokers varies depending on genetic background represents a novel gene-environment interaction in reproductive aging. PMID:24448104

The Aristotle method: a new concept to evaluate quality of care based on complexity.

PubMed

Lacour-Gayet, François; Clarke, David R

2005-06-01

Evaluation of quality of care is a duty of the modern medical practice. A reliable method of quality evaluation able to compare fairly institutions and inform a patient and his family of the potential risk of a procedure is clearly needed. It is now well recognized that any method that purports to evaluate quality of care should include a case mix/risk stratification method. No valuable method was available until recently in pediatric cardiac surgery. The Aristotle method is a new concept of evaluation of quality of care in congenital heart surgery based on the complexity of the surgical procedures. Involving a panel of expert surgeons, the project started in 1999 and included 50 pediatric surgeons from 23 countries. The basic score adjusts the complexity of a given procedure and is calculated as the sum of potential for mortality, potential for morbidity and anticipated technical difficulty. The Comprehensive Score further adjusts the complexity according to the specific patient characteristics (anatomy, associated procedures, co-morbidity, etc.). The Aristotle method is original as it introduces several new concepts: the calculated complexity is a constant for a given patient all over the world; complexity is an independent value and risk is a variable depending on the performance; and Performance = Complexity x Outcome. The Aristotle score is a good vector of communication between patients, doctors and insurance companies and may stimulate the quality and the organization of heath care in our field and in others.

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340 Section 153.340 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Compliance with risk adjustment standards. 153.620 Section 153.620 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

Fetal exposure to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and spontaneous abortions

PubMed Central

Daniel, Sharon; Koren, Gideon; Lunenfeld, Eitan; Bilenko, Natalya; Ratzon, Ronit; Levy, Amalia

2014-01-01

Background: Spontaneous abortion is the most common complication of pregnancy. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely used during pregnancy. Published data are inconsistent regarding the risk of spontaneous abortion following exposure to NSAIDs. Methods: We performed a historical cohort study involving all women who conceived between January 2003 and December 2009 and who were admitted for delivery or spontaneous abortion at Soroka Medical Center, Clalit Health Services, Israel. A computerized database of medication dispensation was linked with 2 computerized databases containing information on births and spontaneous abortions. We constructed time-varying Cox regression models and adjusted for maternal age, diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, obesity, hypercoagulation or inflammatory conditions, recurrent miscarriage, in vitro fertilization of the current pregnancy, intrauterine contraceptive device, ethnic background, tobacco use and year of admission. Results: The cohort included 65 457 women who conceived during the study period; of these, 58 949 (90.1%) were admitted for a birth and 6508 (9.9%) for spontaneous abortion. A total of 4495 (6.9%) pregnant women were exposed to NSAIDs during the study period. Exposure to NSAIDs was not an independent risk factor for spontaneous abortion (nonselective cyclooxygenase [COX] inhibitors: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99–1.22; selective COX-2 inhibitors: adjusted HR 1.43, 95% CI 0.79–2.59). There was no increased risk for specific NSAID drugs, except for a significantly increased risk with exposure to indomethacin (adjusted HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.70–4.69). We found no dose–response effect. Interpretation: We found no increased risk of spontaneous abortion following exposure to NSAIDs. Further research is needed to assess the risk following exposure to selective COX-2 inhibitors. PMID:24491470

Ethnic Variations in Prognosis of Patients with Dementia: A Prospective Nationwide Registry Linkage Study in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Agyemang, Charles; van de Vorst, Irene E; Koek, Huiberdina L; Bots, Michiel L; Seixas, Azizi; Norredam, Marie; Ikram, Umar; Stronks, Karien; Vaartjes, Ilonca

2017-01-01

Data on dementia prognosis among ethnic minority groups are limited in Europe. We assessed differences in short-term (1-year) and long-term (3-year) mortality and readmission risk after a first hospitalization or first ever referral to a day clinic for dementia between ethnic minority groups and the ethnic Dutch population in the NetherlandsMethods: Nationwide prospective cohorts of first hospitalized dementia patients (N = 55,827) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010 were constructed. Differences in short-term and long-term mortality and readmission risk following hospitalization or referral to the day clinic between ethnic minority groups (Surinamese, Turkish, Antilleans, Indonesians) and the ethnic Dutch population were investigated using Cox proportional hazard regression models with adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidities. Age-sex-adjusted short-term and long-term risks of death following a first hospitalization with dementia were comparable between the ethnic minority groups and the ethnic Dutch. Age- and sex-adjusted risk of admission was higher only in Turkish compared with ethnic Dutch (HR 1.57, 95% CI,1.08-2.29). The difference between Turkish and the Dutch attenuated and was no longer statistically significant after further adjustment for comorbidities. There were no ethnic differences in short-term and long-term risk of death, and risk of readmission among day clinic patients. Compared with Dutch patients with a comparable comorbidity rate, ethnic minority patients with dementia did not have a worse prognosis. Given the poor prognosis of dementia, timely and targeted advance care planning is essential, particularly in ethnic minority groups who are mired by cultural barriers and where uptake of advance care planning is known to be low.

[Health-based risk adjustment. Effects and side effects].

PubMed

Jahn, R; Schillo, S; Wasem, J

2012-05-01

Numerous health systems have introduced competition between health plans while banning risk-rated premiums. Risk adjustment for health plans is introduced to reduce incentives for risk selection and to create incentives for health plans to permanently invest in care for the chronically ill. According to the international health economics state of the art, risk adjustment in the German social health insurance system has used information on health status (measured by diagnoses and drug prescriptions) on top of demographic information since 2009. In non-competitive health care systems similar mechanisms are sometimes established, e.g. to achieve an equitable distribution of resources between regions. An evaluation of the first year of health-based risk adjustment demonstrates a superior performance in comparison to the old, demographic risk adjustment. The old risk adjustment formula (without ex post high-cost pooling) showed R(2) of 5.8%, CPM of 10.4% and MAPE of 2,226 €, in contrast to the new health status-based risk adjustment formula (without cash benefit for sick allowance) which reaches R(2) 20.2%, CPM 22.5% and MAPE 1,817 €. However, to make competition between health plans functional for improvement of quality and efficiency of health care, health plans must be granted additional instruments to act as prudent buyers of health care.

Performance of diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures in a population of sick Australians.

PubMed

Duckett, S J; Agius, P A

2002-12-01

Australia is beginning to explore 'managed competition' as an organising framework for the health care system. This requires setting fair capitation rates, i.e. rates that adjust for the risk profile of covered lives. This paper tests two US-developed risk adjustment approaches using Australian data. Data from the 'co-ordinated care' dataset (which incorporates all service costs of 16,538 participants in a large health service research project conducted in 1996-99) were grouped into homogenous risk categories using risk adjustment 'grouper software'. The grouper products yielded three sets of homogenous categories: Diagnostic Groups and Diagnostic cost Groups. A two-stage analysis of predictive power was used: probability of any service use in the concurrent year, next year and the year after (logistic regression) and, for service users, a regression of logged cost of service use. The independent variables were diagnosis gender, a SES variable and the Age, gender and diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures explain around 40-45% of variation in costs of service use in the current year for untrimmed data (compared with around 15% for age and gender alone). Prediction of subsequent use is much poorer (around 20%). Using more information to assign people to risk categories generally improves prediction. Predictive power of diagnosis-base risk adjusters on this Australian dataset is similar to that found in Low predictive power carries policy risks of cream skimming rather than managing population health and care. Competitive funding models with risk adjustment on prior year experience could reduce system efficiency if implemented with current risk adjustment technology.

Association of Genetic Susceptibility Variants for Type 2 Diabetes with Breast Cancer Risk in Women of European Ancestry

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zhiguo; Wen, Wanqing; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Zhang, Ben; Long, Jirong; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Milne, Roger L.; García-Closas, Montserrat; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Lindstrom, Sara; Bojesen, Stig E.; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Andrulis, Irene L.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Arndt, Volker; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Beeghly-Fadiel, Alicia; Benitez, Javier; Blomqvist, Carl; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Brand, Judith; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brenner, Hermann; Burwinkel, Barbara; Cai, Qiuyin; Casey, Graham; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Couch, Fergus J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Czene, Kamila; Dörk, Thilo; Dumont, Martine; Fasching, Peter A.; Figueroa, Jonine; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Fostira, Florentia; Gammon, Marilie; Giles, Graham G.; Guénel, Pascal; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hamann, Ute; Harrington, Patricia; Hartman, Mikael; Hooning, Maartje J.; Hopper, John L.; Jakubowska, Anna; Jasmine, Farzana; John, Esther M.; Johnson, Nichola; Kabisch, Maria; Khan, Sofia; Kibriya, Muhammad; Knight, Julia A.; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kriege, Mieke; Kristensen, Vessela; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, Eunjung; Li, Jingmei; Lindblom, Annika; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Luben, Robert; Lubinski, Jan; Malone, Kathleen E.; Mannermaa, Arto; Manoukian, Siranoush; Margolin, Sara; Marme, Frederik; McLean, Catriona; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Meindl, Alfons; Miao, Hui; Muir, Kenneth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Neven, Patrick; Olson, Janet E.; Perkins, Barbara; Peterlongo, Paolo; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Pylkäs, Katri; Rudolph, Anja; Santella, Regina; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Schoemaker, Minouk; Shah, Mitul; Shrubsole, Martha; Southey, Melissa C.; Swerdlow, Anthony J; Toland, Amanda E.; Tomlinson, Ian; Torres, Diana; Truong, Thérèse; Ursin, Giske; Van Der Luijt, Rob B.; Verhoef, Senno; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Whittemore, Alice S.; Winqvist, Robert; Zamora, M. Pilar; Zhao, Hui; Dunning, Alison M.; Simard, Jacques; Hall, Per; Kraft, Peter; Pharoah, Paul; Hunter, David; Easton, Douglas F.; Zheng, Wei

2016-01-01

Purpose Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been reported to be associated with an elevated risk of breast cancer. It is unclear, however, whether this association is due to shared genetic factors. Methods We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) using risk variants from 33 known independent T2D susceptibility loci and evaluated its relation to breast cancer risk using the data from two consortia, including 62,328 breast cancer patients and 83,817 controls of European ancestry. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to derive adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to measure the association of breast cancer risk with T2D GRS or T2D-associated genetic risk variants. Meta-analyses were conducted to obtain summary ORs across all studies. Results The T2D GRS was not found to be associated with breast cancer risk, overall, by menopausal status, or for estrogen receptor positive or negative breast cancer. Three T2D associated risk variants were individually associated with breast cancer risk after adjustment for multiple comparisons using the Bonferroni method (at P < 0.001), rs9939609 (FTO) (OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92 – 0.95, P = 4.13E-13), rs7903146 (TCF7L2) (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02 – 1.06, P = 1.26E-05), and rs8042680 (PRC1) (OR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.95 – 0.99, P = 8.05E-04). Conclusions We have shown that several genetic risk variants were associated with the risk of both T2D and breast cancer. However, overall genetic susceptibility to T2D may not be related to breast cancer risk. PMID:27053251

Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, Brent S., E-mail: brose44@gmail.com; Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing

Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for menmore » with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.« less

Risk adjustment alternatives in paying for behavioral health care under Medicaid.

PubMed Central

Ettner, S L; Frank, R G; McGuire, T G; Hermann, R C

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of various risk adjustment models in behavioral health applications such as setting mental health and substance abuse (MH/SA) capitation payments or overall capitation payments for populations including MH/SA users. DATA SOURCES/STUDY DESIGN: The 1991-93 administrative data from the Michigan Medicaid program were used. We compared mean absolute prediction error for several risk adjustment models and simulated the profits and losses that behavioral health care carve outs and integrated health plans would experience under risk adjustment if they enrolled beneficiaries with a history of MH/SA problems. Models included basic demographic adjustment, Adjusted Diagnostic Groups, Hierarchical Condition Categories, and specifications designed for behavioral health. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Differences in predictive ability among risk adjustment models were small and generally insignificant. Specifications based on relatively few MH/SA diagnostic categories did as well as or better than models controlling for additional variables such as medical diagnoses at predicting MH/SA expenditures among adults. Simulation analyses revealed that among both adults and minors considerable scope remained for behavioral health care carve outs to make profits or losses after risk adjustment based on differential enrollment of severely ill patients. Similarly, integrated health plans have strong financial incentives to avoid MH/SA users even after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Current risk adjustment methodologies do not eliminate the financial incentives for integrated health plans and behavioral health care carve-out plans to avoid high-utilizing patients with psychiatric disorders. PMID:11508640

HIV Prevalence and Risks Associated with HIV Infection among Transgender Individuals in Cambodia.

PubMed

Weissman, Amy; Ngak, Song; Srean, Chhim; Sansothy, Neth; Mills, Stephen; Ferradini, Laurent

2016-01-01

Recognizing transgender individuals have a high risk of HIV acquisition, and to inform policies and programming, we conducted an HIV prevalence and risk behaviors survey among transgender individuals in Cambodia. Cross-sectional survey using a respondent driven sampling method with self-administered audio-computer assisted interviews. HIV testing was performed prior to the questionnaire with results available immediately after. Eligible participants were ≥18 years, identified as male at birth and self-identified/expressed as a different gender, and reported having sex with at least one male partner in past year. From six major urban centers of Cambodia, 891 transgender individuals were recruited. The majority of the 891 participants self-identified as third gender or female (94.5%), were young (median age 23, IQR [20-27]), had secondary education or higher (80.5%), not married (89.7%), and employed (90.2%). The majority had first sex before 18 years (66.8%), with a male (79.9%), 37.9% having been paid or paying for this first sex. The rate of HIV positivity among participants was found to be 4.15%. Consistent condom use with male and female partners was low with all partner types, but particularly low with male partners when paying for sex (20.3%). The majority of participants reported having experienced discrimination in their lifetime (54.8%) and 30.3% had been assaulted. Multivariate analysis revealed that older age (adjusted OR = 14.73 [4.20, 51.67] for age 35-44 and adjusted OR = 7.63 [2.55, 22.81] for age 30-34), only having a primary school education or no schooling at all (adjusted OR = 2.62 [1.18, 5.80], being a resident of Siem Reap (adjusted OR = 7.44 [2.37, 23.29], receiving payment at first sex (adjusted OR = 2.26 [1.00, 5.11], having sex during/after using drugs (adjusted OR = 2.90 [1.09, 7.73]), inconsistent condom use during last anal sex (adjusted OR = 3.84 [1.58, 9.33]), and reporting low self-esteem (adjusted OR = 3.25 [1.35, 7.85]) were independently associated with HIV infection. This study confirms transgender individuals as one of the highest-risk groups for HIV infection in Cambodia. It suggests the need for programmatic strategies that mitigate identified associated risks and facilitate access to HIV care for this population.

Risk-adjusted models for adverse obstetric outcomes and variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals.

PubMed

Bailit, Jennifer L; Grobman, William A; Rice, Madeline Murguia; Spong, Catherine Y; Wapner, Ronald J; Varner, Michael W; Thorp, John M; Leveno, Kenneth J; Caritis, Steve N; Shubert, Phillip J; Tita, Alan T; Saade, George; Sorokin, Yoram; Rouse, Dwight J; Blackwell, Sean C; Tolosa, Jorge E; Van Dorsten, J Peter

2013-11-01

Regulatory bodies and insurers evaluate hospital quality using obstetrical outcomes, however meaningful comparisons should take preexisting patient characteristics into account. Furthermore, if risk-adjusted outcomes are consistent within a hospital, fewer measures and resources would be needed to assess obstetrical quality. Our objective was to establish risk-adjusted models for 5 obstetric outcomes and assess hospital performance across these outcomes. We studied a cohort of 115,502 women and their neonates born in 25 hospitals in the United States from March 2008 through February 2011. Hospitals were ranked according to their unadjusted and risk-adjusted frequency of venous thromboembolism, postpartum hemorrhage, peripartum infection, severe perineal laceration, and a composite neonatal adverse outcome. Correlations between hospital risk-adjusted outcome frequencies were assessed. Venous thromboembolism occurred too infrequently (0.03%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.02-0.04%) for meaningful assessment. Other outcomes occurred frequently enough for assessment (postpartum hemorrhage, 2.29%; 95% CI, 2.20-2.38, peripartum infection, 5.06%; 95% CI, 4.93-5.19, severe perineal laceration at spontaneous vaginal delivery, 2.16%; 95% CI, 2.06-2.27, neonatal composite, 2.73%; 95% CI, 2.63-2.84). Although there was high concordance between unadjusted and adjusted hospital rankings, several individual hospitals had an adjusted rank that was substantially different (as much as 12 rank tiers) than their unadjusted rank. None of the correlations between hospital-adjusted outcome frequencies was significant. For example, the hospital with the lowest adjusted frequency of peripartum infection had the highest adjusted frequency of severe perineal laceration. Evaluations based on a single risk-adjusted outcome cannot be generalized to overall hospital obstetric performance. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Transfer Formula for Individual and Small Group Markets Under the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Pope, Gregory C; Bachofer, Henry; Pearlman, Andrew; Kautter, John; Hunter, Elizabeth; Miller, Daniel; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

The Affordable Care Act provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group health insurance markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge. The risk adjustment methodology includes the risk adjustment model and the risk transfer formula. This article is the third of three in this issue of the Medicare & Medicaid Research Review that describe the ACA risk adjustment methodology and focuses on the risk transfer formula. In our first companion article, we discussed the key issues and choices in developing the methodology. In our second companion paper, we described the risk adjustment model that is used to calculate risk scores. In this article we present the risk transfer formula. We first describe how the plan risk score is combined with factors for the plan allowable premium rating, actuarial value, induced demand, geographic cost, and the statewide average premium in a formula that calculates transfers among plans. We then show how each plan factor is determined, as well as how the factors relate to each other in the risk transfer formula. The goal of risk transfers is to offset the effects of risk selection on plan costs while preserving premium differences due to factors such as actuarial value differences. Illustrative numerical simulations show the risk transfer formula operating as anticipated in hypothetical scenarios. PMID:25352994

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... program, the State may vary the amount and type of data collected, but the State must collect or calculate... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340... CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program § 153.340 Data collection under risk...

77 FR 21775 - Risk Adjustment Meeting-May 7, 2012 and May 8, 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-11

... notice announces a meeting on the risk adjustment program, which is open to the public. The purpose of... plan average actuarial risk, calculation of payments and charges, data collection approach, and the..., calculation of payments and charges, data collection approach, and the schedule for running risk adjustment...

45 CFR 153.360 - Application of risk adjustment to the small group market.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Application of risk adjustment to the small group market. 153.360 Section 153.360 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER...

45 CFR 153.360 - Application of risk adjustment to the small group market.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Application of risk adjustment to the small group market. 153.360 Section 153.360 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER...

Cancer-related risk indicators and preventive screening behaviors among lesbians and bisexual women.

PubMed Central

Cochran, S D; Mays, V M; Bowen, D; Gage, S; Bybee, D; Roberts, S J; Goldstein, R S; Robison, A; Rankow, E J; White, J

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study examined whether lesbians are at increased risk for certain cancers as a result of an accumulation of behavioral risk factors and difficulties in accessing health care. METHODS: Prevalence estimates of behavioral risk factors (nulliparity, obesity, smoking, and alcohol use), cancer screening behaviors, and self-reported breast cancer histories derived from 7 independently conducted surveys of lesbians/bisexual women (n = 11,876) were compared with national estimates for women. RESULTS: In comparison with adjusted estimates for the US female population, lesbians/bisexual women exhibited greater prevalence rates of obesity, alcohol use, and tobacco use and lower rates of parity and birth control pill use. These women were also less likely to have health insurance coverage or to have had a recent pelvic examination or mammogram. Self-reported histories of breast cancer, however, did not differ from adjusted US female population estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Lesbians and bisexual women differ from heterosexual women in patterns of health risk. These women would be expected to be at especially greater risk for chronic diseases linked to smoking and obesity. PMID:11291371

Population attributable fraction of incident HIV infections associated with alcohol consumption in fishing communities around Lake Victoria, Uganda

PubMed Central

Kiwanuka, Noah; Ssetaala, Ali; Ssekandi, Ismail; Nalutaaya, Annet; Kitandwe, Paul Kato; Ssempiira, Julius; Bagaya, Bernard Ssentalo; Balyegisawa, Apolo; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Hahn, Judith; Lindan, Christina; Sewankambo, Nelson Kaulukusi

2017-01-01

Background Although the association between alcohol consumption and HIV risk is well documented, few studies have examined the magnitude of new HIV infections that could be prevented by controlling alcohol use. We report the population attributable fraction (PAF) of incident HIV infections due to alcohol consumption among the HIV high-risk population of fishing communities along Lake Victoria, Uganda. Methods In a community-based cohort study, 1607 HIV sero-negative participants aged 18–49 years were enrolled from eight fishing communities along Lake Victoria, Uganda. At follow up 12 months later, 1288 (80.1%) were seen and interviewed. At baseline and follow-up visits, participants completed interviewer-administered questionnaires on alcohol consumption, demographics, and sexual risk behavior, and were tested for HIV infection. HIV incidence and adjusted incident rate ratios (adjusted IRRs) were estimated using Poisson regression models; the crude and adjusted PAFs of incident HIV infections associated with alcohol consumption were calculated using the Greenland and Drescher method for cohort studies. Results Among the 1288 participants seen at follow up, 53.5% reported drinking alcohol of whom 24.4% drank occasionally (2 days a week or less) and 29.1% drank regularly (3–7 days a week). Forty eight incident HIV infections occurred giving an incidence rate of 3.39/100 person years at-risk (pyar) (95% CI, 2.55–4.49). Compared to non-drinkers, the adjusted IRR of HIV was 3.09 (1.13–8.46) among occasional drinkers and 5.34 (2.04–13.97) among regular drinkers. The overall adjusted PAF of incident HIV infections due alcohol was 64.1 (95% CI; 23.5–83.1); ranging from 52.3 (11.9–74.2) among Muslims to 71.2 (32.6–87.7) for participants who reported ≥ 2 sexual partners in the past 12 months. Conclusion In fishing communities along Lake Victoria, Uganda, 64% of new HIV infections can be attributed to drinking alcohol. Interventions to reduce alcohol consumption should be integrated in HIV/AIDS prevention activities for populations in whom both HIV and alcohol consumption are highly prevalent. PMID:28207844

Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs). Methods We conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths. Results Numbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions. Conclusions Patients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can only be demonstrated by an analysis over a prolonged period, but occurs, in effect, every day of the year. This finding is relevant for all countries where hospitals use HSMR for monitoring and improving hospital performance. The use of 'admission frequency' as additional adjustment variable may provide a more accurate HSMR. PMID:21401936

Risk of pneumonia associated with incident benzodiazepine use among community-dwelling adults with Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

Taipale, Heidi; Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Koponen, Marjaana; Tanskanen, Antti; Lavikainen, Piia; Sund, Reijo; Tiihonen, Jari; Hartikainen, Sirpa

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Knowledge regarding whether benzodiazepines and similarly acting non-benzodiazepines (Z-drugs) are associated with an increased risk of pneumonia among older adults is lacking. We sought to investigate this association among community-dwelling adults with Alzheimer disease, a condition in which both sedative/hypnotic use and pneumonia are common. METHODS: We obtained data on all community-dwelling adults with a recent diagnosis of Alzheimer disease in Finland (2005–2011) from the Medication use and Alzheimer disease (MEDALZ) cohort, which incorporates national registry data on prescriptions, reimbursement, hospital discharges and causes of death. Incident users of benzodiazepines and Z-drugs were identified using a 1-year washout period and matched with nonusers using propensity scores. The association with hospital admission or death due to pneumonia was analyzed with the Cox proportional hazards model and adjusted for use of other psychotropic drugs in a time-dependent manner. RESULTS: Among 49 484 eligible participants with Alzheimer disease, 5232 taking benzodiazepines and 3269 taking Z-drugs were matched 1:1 with those not taking these drugs. Collectively, use of benzodiazepines and Z-drugs was associated with an increased risk of pneumonia (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.42). When analyzed separately, benzodiazepine use was significantly associated with an increased risk of pneumonia (adjusted HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.07–1.54), whereas Z-drug use was not (adjusted HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.84–1.44). The risk of pneumonia was greatest within the first 30 days of benzodiazepine use (HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.26–3.48). INTERPRETATION: Benzodiazepine use was associated with an increased risk of pneumonia among patients with Alzheimer disease. Risk of pneumonia should be considered when weighing the benefits and risks of benzodiazepines in this population. PMID:28396328

Sugar-sweetened beverage intake and cardiovascular risk factor profile in youth with type 1 diabetes: application of measurement error methodology in the SEARCH Nutrition Ancillary Study.

PubMed

Liese, Angela D; Crandell, Jamie L; Tooze, Janet A; Kipnis, Victor; Bell, Ronny; Couch, Sarah C; Dabelea, Dana; Crume, Tessa L; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J

2015-08-14

The SEARCH Nutrition Ancillary Study aims to investigate the role of dietary intake on the development of long-term complications of type 1 diabetes in youth, and capitalise on measurement error (ME) adjustment methodology. Using the National Cancer Institute (NCI) method for episodically consumed foods, we evaluated the relationship between sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake and cardiovascular risk factor profile, with the application of ME adjustment methodology. The calibration sample included 166 youth with two FFQ and three 24 h dietary recall data within 1 month. The full sample included 2286 youth with type 1 diabetes. SSB intake was significantly associated with higher TAG, total and LDL-cholesterol concentrations, after adjusting for energy, age, diabetes duration, race/ethnicity, sex and education. The estimated effect size was larger (model coefficients increased approximately 3-fold) after the application of the NCI method than without adjustment for ME. Compared with individuals consuming one serving of SSB every 2 weeks, those who consumed one serving of SSB every 2 d had 3.7 mg/dl (0.04 mmol/l) higher TAG concentrations and 4.0 mg/dl (0.10 mmol/l) higher total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol concentrations, after adjusting for ME and covariates. SSB intake was not associated with measures of adiposity and blood pressure. Our findings suggest that SSB intake is significantly related to increased lipid levels in youth with type 1 diabetes, and that estimates of the effect size of SSB on lipid levels are severely attenuated in the presence of ME. Future studies in youth with diabetes should consider a design that will allow for the adjustment for ME when studying the influence of diet on health status.

Relation of Parental Transitions to Boys' Adjustment Problems: I.A. Linear Hypothesis II. Mothers at Risk for Transitions and Unskilled Parenting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capaldi, D. M.; Patterson, G. R.

1991-01-01

Examined the adjustment of boys from intact, single-mother, stepfather, and multiple-transition families. Boys who had experienced multiple transitions showed the poorest adjustment. The antisocial mother was most at risk for transitions and unskilled parenting practices, which in turn placed her son at risk for poor adjustment. (BC)

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Magnesium intake, plasma C-peptide, and colorectal cancer incidence in US women: a 28-year follow-up study

PubMed Central

Zhang, X; Giovannucci, E L; Wu, K; Smith-Warner, S A; Fuchs, C S; Pollak, M; Willett, W C; Ma, J

2012-01-01

Background: Laboratory studies suggest a possible role of magnesium intake in colorectal carcinogenesis but epidemiological evidence is inconclusive. Method: We tested magnesium–colorectal cancer hypothesis in the Nurses' Health Study, in which 85 924 women free of cancer in 1980 were followed until June 2008. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate multivariable relative risks (MV RRs, 95% confidence intervals). Results: In the age-adjusted model, magnesium intake was significantly inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk; the RRs from lowest to highest decile of total magnesium intake were 1.0 (ref), 0.93, 0.81, 0.72, 0.74, 0.77, 0.72, 0.75, 0.80, and 0.67 (Ptrend<0.001). However, in the MV model adjusted for known dietary and non-dietary risk factors for colorectal cancer, the association was significantly attenuated; the MV RRs were 1.0 (ref), 0.96, 0.85, 0.78, 0.82, 0.86, 0.84, 0.91, 1.02, and 0.93 (Ptrend=0.77). Similarly, magnesium intakes were significantly inversely associated with concentrations of plasma C-peptide in age-adjusted model (Ptrend=0.002) but not in multivariate-adjusted model (Ptrend=0.61). Results did not differ by subsite or modified by calcium intakes or body mass index. Conclusion: These prospective results do not support an independent association of magnesium intake with either colorectal cancer risk or plasma C-peptide levels in women. PMID:22415230

Alcohol and Risk of Parkinson Disease in a Large Prospective Cohort of Men and Women

PubMed Central

Palacios, N.; Gao, X.; O’Reilly, E.; Schwarzschild, M.; McCullough, M.L.; Mayo, T.; Gapstur, S.M.; Ascherio, A.

2012-01-01

Background Addictive behaviors such as cigarette smoking and coffee drinking have been associated with a reduced risk of Parkinson disease. Whether alcohol consumption is also associated with risk is less certain. Methods We prospectively followed 132,403 participants in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort from 1992 to 2005. Alcohol intake was assessed at baseline. Incident cases of Parkinson Disease (n = 605; 389 male and 216 female) were confirmed by treating physicians and medical record review. Relative risks were estimated using proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, smoking and other risk factors. Results Alcohol consumption was not significantly associated with Parkinson Disease risk. After adjustment for age, smoking, and other risk factors, the Relative Risk comparing men consuming 30 or more grams of alcohol (highest category) to non-drinker men was 1.29 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.86, p-trend: 0.40) and the Relative Risk comparing women consuming 15 or more grams of alcohol (highest category) per day to non-drinker women was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.41, 1.45, p-trend: 0.87). Consumption of beer, wine or liquor was also not associated with Parkinson Disease risk. Conclusions The results of this large prospective study do not support an association between alcohol intake and risk of Parkinson disease. PMID:22714720

Extremism, religion and psychiatric morbidity in a population-based sample of young men

PubMed Central

Coid, Jeremy W.; Bhui, Kamaldeep; MacManus, Deirdre; Kallis, Constantinos; Bebbington, Paul; Ullrich, Simone

2016-01-01

Background There is growing risk from terrorism following radicalisation of young men. It is unclear whether psychopathology is associated. Aims To investigate the population distribution of extremist views among UK men. Method Cross-sectional study of 3679 men, 18–34 years, in Great Britain. Multivariate analyses of attitudes, psychiatric morbidity, ethnicity and religion. Results Pro-British men were more likely to be White, UK born, not religious; anti-British were Muslim, religious, of Pakistani origin, from deprived areas. Pro- and anti-British views were linearly associated with violence (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.51, 95% CI 1.38–1.64, P<0.001, adjusted OR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.13–1.58, P<0.001, respectively) and negatively with depression (adjusted OR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.61–0.85, P<0.001, adjusted OR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.48–0.86, P = 0.003, respectively). Conclusions Men at risk of depression may experience protection from strong cultural or religious identity. Antisocial behaviour increases with extremism. Religion is protective but may determine targets of violence following radicalisation. PMID:27765774

Variable Lifting Index for Manual-Lifting Risk Assessment: A Preliminary Validation Study.

PubMed

Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Cortinovis, Ivan

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the new Variable Lifting Index (VLI) method, theoretically based on the Revised National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health [NIOSH] Lifting Equation (RNLE), in predicting the risk of acute low-back pain (LBP) in the past 12 months. A new risk variable termed the VLI for assessing variable manual lifting has been developed, but there has been no epidemiological study that evaluates the relationship between the VLI and LBP. A sample of 3,402 study participants from 16 companies in different industrial sectors was analyzed. Of the participants, 2,374 were in the risk exposure group involving manual materials handling (MMH), and 1,028 were in the control group without MMH. The VLI was calculated for each participant in the exposure group using a systematic approach. LBP information was collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. The risk of acute LBP was estimated by calculating the odds ratio (OR) between levels of the risk exposure and the control group using a logistic regression analysis. Both crude and adjusted ORs for body mass index, gender, and age were analyzed. Both crude and adjusted ORs showed a dose-response relationship. As the levels of VLI increased, the risk of LBP increased. This risk relationship existed when VLI was greater than 1. The VLI method can be used to assess the risk of acute LBP, although further studies are needed to confirm the outcome and to define better VLI categories. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Sequential Acquisition of Anal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection Following Genital Infection Among Men Who Have Sex With Women: The HPV Infection in Men (HIM) Study

PubMed Central

Pamnani, Shitaldas J.; Nyitray, Alan G.; Abrahamsen, Martha; Rollison, Dana E.; Villa, Luisa L.; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Huang, Yangxin; Borenstein, Amy; Giuliano, Anna R.

2016-01-01

Background. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of sequential acquisition of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection following a type-specific genital HPV infection for the 9-valent vaccine HPV types and investigate factors associated with sequential infection among men who have sex with women (MSW). Methods. Genital and anal specimens were available for 1348 MSW participants, and HPV genotypes were detected using the Roche Linear Array assay. Sequential risk of anal HPV infection was assessed using hazard ratios (HRs) among men with prior genital infection, compared with men with no prior genital infection, in individual HPV type and grouped HPV analyses. Results. In individual analyses, men with prior HPV 16 genital infections had a significantly higher risk of subsequent anal HPV 16 infections (HR, 4.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41–15.23). In grouped analyses, a significantly higher risk of sequential type-specific anal HPV infections was observed for any of the 9 types (adjusted HR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.32–5.99), high-risk types (adjusted HR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.26, 5.55), and low-risk types (adjusted HR, 5.89; 95% CI, 1.29, 27.01). Conclusions. MSW with prior genital HPV infections had a higher risk of a subsequent type-specific anal infection. The higher risk was not explained by sexual intercourse with female partners. Autoinoculation is a possible mechanism for the observed association. PMID:27489298

Sex differences in mortality in children undergoing congenital heart disease surgery: a United States population-based study.

PubMed

Marelli, Ariane; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Landzberg, Mike; Jenkins, Kathy

2010-09-14

The changing demographics of the adult congenital heart disease (CHD) population requires an understanding of the factors that impact patient survival to adulthood. We sought to investigate sex differences in CHD surgical mortality in children. Children <18 years old hospitalized for CHD surgery were identified using the Kids' Inpatient Database in 2000, 2003, and 2006. Demographic, diagnostic, and procedural variables were grouped according to RACHS-1 (Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery) method. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds ratio of death in females versus males adjusting for RACHS-1 risk category, age, prematurity, major noncardiac anomalies, and multiple procedures. Analyses were stratified by RACHS-1 risk categories and age. Of 33 848 hospitalizations for CHD surgery, 54.7% were in males. Males were more likely than females to have CHD surgery in infancy, high-risk CHD surgery, and multiple CHD procedures. Females had more major noncardiac structural anomalies and more low-risk procedures. However, the adjusted risk of in-hospital death was higher in females (odds ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.36) on account of the subgroup with high-risk surgeries who were <1 year of age (odds ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 1.67). In this large US population study, more male children underwent CHD surgery and had high-risk procedures. Female infants who had high-risk procedures were at higher risk for death, but this accounted for a small proportion of females and is therefore unlikely to have a major impact on the changing demographics in adults in CHD.

Mammographic density defined by higher than conventional brightness thresholds better predicts breast cancer risk

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Tuong L; Aung, Ye K; Evans, Christopher F; Dite, Gillian S; Stone, Jennifer; MacInnis, Robert J; Dowty, James G; Bickerstaffe, Adrian; Aujard, Kelly; Rommens, Johanna M; Song, Yun-Mi; Sung, Joohon; Jenkins, Mark A; Southey, Melissa C; Giles, Graham G; Apicella, Carmel; Hopper, John L

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Mammographic density defined by the conventional pixel brightness threshold, and adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI), is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer. We asked if higher thresholds better separate women with and without breast cancer. Methods: We studied Australian women, 354 with breast cancer over-sampled for early-onset and family history, and 944 unaffected controls frequency-matched for age at mammogram. We measured mammographic dense area and percent density using the CUMULUS software at the conventional threshold, which we call Cumulus, and at two increasingly higher thresholds, which we call Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus, respectively. All measures were Box–Cox transformed and adjusted for age and BMI. We estimated the odds per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) using logistic regression and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus were correlated with Cumulus (r ∼ 0.8 and 0.6, respectively). For dense area, the OPERA was 1.62, 1.74 and 1.73 for Cumulus, Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus, respectively (all P < 0.001). After adjusting for Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus, Cumulus was not significant (P > 0.6). The OPERAs for percent density were less but gave similar findings. The mean of the standardized adjusted Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus dense area measures was the best predictor; OPERA = 1.87 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.64–2.14] and AUC = 0.68 (0.65–0.71). Conclusions: The areas of higher mammographically dense regions are associated with almost 30% stronger breast cancer risk gradient, explain the risk association of the conventional measure and might be more aetiologically important. This has substantial implications for clinical translation and molecular, genetic and epidemiological research. PMID:28338721

Relationship between Exposure to Household Humidifier Disinfectants and Risk of Lung Injury: A Family-Based Study

PubMed Central

Park, Dong-Uk; Choi, Ye-Yong; Ahn, Jong-Ju; Lim, Heung-Kyu; Kim, Sun-Kyung; Roh, Hyun-Suk; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Leem, Jong-Han; Koh, Dong-Hee; Jung, Hye-Jung; Lee, Kyoung-Mu; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Kim, Yong-Hwa; Lim, Sin-Ye; Paek, Do-Myung; Lim, Chae-Man; Hong, Soo-Jong

2015-01-01

Background In South Korea, a cluster of acute lung disease patients included lung injury disease suspected of being caused by the use of humidifier disinfectants. We examined the relationship between humidifier disinfectant exposure and clinically diagnosed humidifier disinfectant-associated lung injury (HDLI) in a family-based study. Methods This case-control study included 169 clinically confirmed HDLI cases and 303 family controls who lived with the HDLI patients. A range of information on exposure to humidifier disinfectants was obtained using a structured questionnaire and field investigations. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models that were adjusted for age, sex, presence of a factory within 1 km of residence, and the number of household chemical products used. Results HDLI risk increased approximately two-fold or more among the highest quartile compared with the lowest quartile in terms of the hours sleeping in a room with an operating humidifier treated with disinfectant (adjusted OR = 2.0, 95 % CI = 1.1-3.7), average hours of disinfectant-treated humidifier use per day (adjusted OR = 2.1, 95 % CI = 1.0-4.5), airborne disinfectant intensity (adjusted OR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.2-5.3), and cumulative disinfectant inhalation level (adjusted OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0-4.1). HDLI risk increased as the distance of the bed from humidifier gets shorter; compared with longer distance (> 1 m), the odds ratio was 2.7 for 0.5 to 1 m (95 % CI = 1.5-5.1) and 13.2 for <0.5 m (95 % CI = 2.4-73.0). Conclusions The use of household humidifier disinfectants was associated with HDLI risk in a dose-response manner. PMID:25978522

Carotid arterial wall characteristics are associated with incident ischemic stroke but not coronary heart disease in the ARIC Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Eric Y.; Chambless, Lloyd; Sharrett, A. Richey; Virani, Salim S.; Liu, Xiaoxi; Tang, Zhengzheng; Boerwinkle, Eric; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Nambi, Vijay

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose Ultrasound measurements of arterial stiffness are associated with atherosclerosis risk factors, but limited data exist on their association with incident cardiovascular events. We evaluated the association of carotid ultrasound derived arterial stiffness measures with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke in the ARIC study. Methods Carotid arterial strain (CAS) and compliance (AC), distensibility (AD) and stiffness indices (SI), pressure-strain (Ep) and Young’s elastic moduli (YEM) were measured in 10,407 individuals using ultrasound. Hazard ratios for incident CHD (myocardial infarction [MI], fatal CHD, coronary revascularization) and stroke in minimally adjusted (age, sex, center, race) and fully adjusted models (minimally adjusted model + diabetes, height, weight, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, tobacco use, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) were calculated. Results The mean age was 55.3 years. Over a mean follow up of 13.8 years, 1,267 incident CHD and 383 ischemic stroke events occurred. After full adjustment for risk factors and CIMT, all arterial stiffness parameters [CAS HR (95% confidence interval [CI]) =1.14 (1.02, 1.28); AD HR=1.19 (1.02, 1.39); SI HR=1.14 (1.04, 1.25); Ep HR=1.17 (1.06, 1.28); YEM HR=1.13 (1.03, 1.24)], except arterial compliance HR=1.02 (0.90, 1.16), were significantly associated with incident stroke but not with CHD. Conclusions After adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors, ultrasound measures of carotid arterial stiffness are associated with incident ischemic stroke but not incident CHD events, despite that the 2 outcomes sharing similar risk factors. PMID:22033999

Unemployment and disability pension-an 18-year follow-up study of a 40-year-old population in a Norwegian county

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background This study explored the association of unemployment and an increased risk of receiving disability pension, and the possibility that this risk is attributed to municipality-specific characteristics. Methods A cohort of 7,985 40-42 year olds was followed for 18 years in national registers, identifying new episodes of unemployment and cases of disability pension. The association between an unemployment period and disability pension in the subsequent year was estimated using discrete time multilevel logistic regressions and clustering individuals by municipality. The association between unemployment and disability pension was adjusted for age in the follow up-period, sex, baseline health status, health behaviour and education level. A conditional intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was estimated as a measure of inter-municipality variance. Results In the follow-up period, 2784 (35%) of the participants were granted disability pension. The crude odds ratio for receiving disability pension after unemployment (adjusted for age in follow-up period and sex only) was 1.42 (95% CI 1.1-1.8). Adjusting for baseline health indicators reduced the odds ratio of unemployment to 1.33 (CI 1.1-1.7). A fully adjusted model, including education level, further reduced the odds ratio of unemployment to 1.25 (CI 1.00-1.6). The ICC of the municipality level was approximately 2%. Conclusions Becoming unemployed increased the risk of receiving subsequent disability pension. However, adjusting for baseline health status, health behaviour and education attenuated this impact considerably. The multilevel analysis indicated that a minor, yet statistically significant, proportion of the risk of disability pension can be attributed to the municipality of residence. PMID:22369630

Resistant Hypertension, Patient Characteristics, and Risk of Stroke

PubMed Central

Hung, Chen-Ying; Wang, Kuo-Yang; Wu, Tsu-Juey; Hsieh, Yu-Cheng; Huang, Jin-Long; Loh, El-Wui; Lin, Ching-Heng

2014-01-01

Background Little is known about the prognosis of resistant hypertension (RH) in Asian population. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of RH in Taiwanese patients with hypertension, and to ascertain whether patient characteristics influence the association of RH with adverse outcomes. Methods and Results Patients aged ≥45 years with hypertension were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Medical records of 111,986 patients were reviewed in this study, and 16,402 (14.6%) patients were recognized as having RH (continuously concomitant use of ≥3 anti-hypertensive medications, including a diuretic, for ≥2 years). Risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute coronary syndrome, and stroke [included both fatal and nonfatal events]) in patients with RH and non-RH was analyzed. A total of 11,856 patients experienced MACE in the follow-up period (average 7.1±3.0 years). There was a higher proportion of females in the RH group, they were older than the non-RH (63.1 vs. 60.5 years) patients, and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular co-morbidities. Overall, patients with RH had higher risks of MACE (adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 1.09–1.26; p<0.001). Significantly elevated risks of stroke (10,211 events; adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 1.08–1.27; p<0.001), especially ischemic stroke (6,235 events; adjusted HR 1.34; 95%CI 1.20–1.48; p<0.001), but not all-cause mortality (4,594 events; adjusted HR 1.06; 95%CI 0.95–1.19; p = 0.312) or acute coronary syndrome (2,145 events; adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 0.99–1.39; p = 0.070) were noted in patients with RH compared to those with non-RH. Subgroup analysis showed that RH increased the risks of stroke in female and elderly patients. However, no significant influence was noted in young or male patients. Conclusions Patients with RH were associated with higher risks of MACE and stroke, especially ischemic stroke. The risks were greater in female and elderly patients than in male or young patients. PMID:25089520

Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

PubMed

Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

2009-02-01

Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

Status and risk factors of unintentional injuries among Chinese undergraduates: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Injuries affect all age groups but have a particular impact on young people. To evaluate the incidence of non-fatal, unintentional, injuries among undergraduates in Wenzhou, China, assess the burden caused by these injuries, and explore the associated risk factors for unintentional injuries among these undergraduates, we conducted a college-based cross-sectional study. Methods Participants were selected by a multi-stage random sampling method, and 2,287 students were asked whether they had had an injury in the last 12 months; the location, cause, and consequences of the event. The questionnaire included demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, lifestyle habits, and the scale of type A behaviour pattern (TABP). Multivariate logistic regression models were used; crude odds ratios (ORs), adjusted ORs and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated, with students having no injuries as the reference group. Results The incidence of injuries among undergraduates in Wenzhou was 18.71 injuries per 100 person-years (95%CI: 17.12~20.31 injuries per 100 person-years). Falls were the leading cause of injury, followed by traffic injuries, and animal/insect bites. Male students were more likely to be injured than female students. Risk factors associated with unintentional injuries among undergraduates were: students majoring in non-medicine (adjusted OR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.19-1.96); type A behaviour pattern (adjusted OR: 2.99; 95% CI: 1.45-6.14); liking sports (adjusted OR: 1.86; 95% CI: 1.41-2.45). Conclusions Injuries have become a public health problem among undergraduates. Falls were the major cause of non-fatal injury. Therefore, individuals, families, schools and governments should promptly adopt preventive measures aimed at preventing and controlling morbidity due to non-fatal injury, especially among students identified to be at high-risk; such as male students with type A behaviour pattern who like sports. PMID:21729294

Quantifying the impact of time-varying baseline risk adjustment in the self-controlled risk interval design.

PubMed

Li, Lingling; Kulldorff, Martin; Russek-Cohen, Estelle; Kawai, Alison Tse; Hua, Wei

2015-12-01

The self-controlled risk interval design is commonly used to assess the association between an acute exposure and an adverse event of interest, implicitly adjusting for fixed, non-time-varying covariates. Explicit adjustment needs to be made for time-varying covariates, for example, age in young children. It can be performed via either a fixed or random adjustment. The random-adjustment approach can provide valid point and interval estimates but requires access to individual-level data for an unexposed baseline sample. The fixed-adjustment approach does not have this requirement and will provide a valid point estimate but may underestimate the variance. We conducted a comprehensive simulation study to evaluate their performance. We designed the simulation study using empirical data from the Food and Drug Administration-sponsored Mini-Sentinel Post-licensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring Rotavirus Vaccines and Intussusception study in children 5-36.9 weeks of age. The time-varying confounder is age. We considered a variety of design parameters including sample size, relative risk, time-varying baseline risks, and risk interval length. The random-adjustment approach has very good performance in almost all considered settings. The fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative when the number of events used to estimate the time-varying baseline risks is at least the number of events used to estimate the relative risk, which is almost always the case. We successfully identified settings in which the fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative and provided guidelines on the selection and implementation of appropriate analyses for the self-controlled risk interval design. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of players' physique on rugby football injuries.

PubMed Central

Lee, A J; Myers, J L; Garraway, W M

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether there is an association between a player's physique and injuries incurred while playing rugby football. METHODS: A cohort study was carried out involving all senior rugby clubs in the Scottish Borders during the 1993-1994 rugby season. Somatotype estimates were determined for 1152 (95%) of the 1216 eligible players. Body mass index (BMI), chest to waist ratio, and the ponderal index (PI) were used to classify players' physique as endomorphic (obese), mesomorphic (muscular), and ectomorphic (linear). RESULTS: A strong association was found between physique and age (chi 2 test: chi 2 = 317.2, df = 10, P < 0.0001). More younger players were ectomorphs. Older players were more often endomorphic. The physiques of forwards and backs were significantly different (chi 2 test: chi 2 = 58.6, df = 2, P < 0.0001), with forwards being of a heavier build than three-quarters, even after adjustment for age. Endomorphic players were more likely than ectomorphs to be injured in a match after adjustment for age (age-adjusted mean BMI for players who were injured in a match was 25.4 compared with 24.6 for players who were not injured in a match, P < 0.0001; adjusted chest to waist ratio means were 1.136 and 1.125 respectively, P = 0.0307; adjusted PI means were 0.414 and 0.417 respectively, P = 0.0056). Increased risk of injury may occur when players play out of position, since one fifth of all injuries occurred in this circumstance. CONCLUSIONS: Further research needs to be conducted using a more objective method of measuring somatotype on a further cohort of players so that the risk of injury for different body types can be examined more closely and related to other potential confounding factors. The level of increased risk for individuals playing out of their usual playing position needs to be established with a greater degree of certainty. PMID:9192128

Lower educational level is a predictor of incident type 2 diabetes in European countries: the EPIC-InterAct study.

PubMed

Sacerdote, Carlotta; Ricceri, Fulvio; Rolandsson, Olov; Baldi, Ileana; Chirlaque, Maria-Dolores; Feskens, Edith; Bendinelli, Benedetta; Ardanaz, Eva; Arriola, Larraitz; Balkau, Beverley; Bergmann, Manuela; Beulens, Joline W J; Boeing, Heiner; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Crowe, Francesca; de Lauzon-Guillain, Blandine; Forouhi, Nita; Franks, Paul W; Gallo, Valentina; Gonzalez, Carlos; Halkjær, Jytte; Illner, Anne-Kathrin; Kaaks, Rudolf; Key, Timothy; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Navarro, Carmen; Nilsson, Peter M; Dal Ton, Susanne Oksbjerg; Overvad, Kim; Pala, Valeria; Palli, Domenico; Panico, Salvatore; Polidoro, Silvia; Quirós, J Ramón; Romieu, Isabelle; Sánchez, María-José; Slimani, Nadia; Sluijs, Ivonne; Spijkerman, Annemieke; Teucher, Birgit; Tjønneland, Anne; Tumino, Rosario; van der A, Daphne; Vergnaud, Anne-Claire; Wennberg, Patrik; Sharp, Stephen; Langenberg, Claudia; Riboli, Elio; Vineis, Paolo; Wareham, Nicholas

2012-08-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the most common chronic diseases worldwide. In high-income countries, low socioeconomic status seems to be related to a high incidence of T2DM, but very little is known about the intermediate factors of this relationship. Method We performed a case-cohort study in eight Western European countries nested in the EPIC study (n = 340, 234, 3.99 million person-years of follow-up). A random sub-cohort of 16,835 individuals and a total of 12,403 incident cases of T2DM were identified. Crude and multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were estimated for each country and pooled across countries using meta-analytical methods. Age-, gender- and country-specific relative indices of inequality (RII) were used as the measure of educational level and RII tertiles were analysed. Compared with participants with a high educational level (RII tertile 1), participants with a low educational level (RII tertile 3) had a higher risk of T2DM [HR: 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.69-1.85; P-trend < 0.01]. The HRs adjusted for physical activity, smoking status and propensity score according to macronutrient intake were very similar to the crude HR (adjusted HR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.52-1.83 in men; HR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.73-2.05 in women). The HRs were attenuated only when they were further adjusted for BMI (BMI-adjusted HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.23-1.51 in men; HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.20-1.45 in women). This study demonstrates the inequalities in the risk of T2DM in Western European countries, with an inverse relationship between educational level and risk of T2DM that is only partially explained by variations in BMI.

Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

PubMed

van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

1994-01-01

The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

Public reporting of cost and quality information in orthopaedics.

PubMed

Marjoua, Youssra; Butler, Craig A; Bozic, Kevin J

2012-04-01

Public reporting of patient health outcomes offers the potential to incentivize quality improvement by fostering increased accountability among providers. Voluntary reporting of risk-adjusted outcomes in cardiac surgery, for example, is viewed as a "watershed event" in healthcare accountability. However, public reporting of outcomes, cost, and quality information in orthopaedic surgery remains limited by comparison, attributable in part to the lack of standard assessment methods and metrics, provider fear of inadequate adjustment of health outcomes for patient characteristics (risk adjustment), and historically weak market demand for this type of information. We review the origins of public reporting of outcomes in surgical care, identify existing initiatives specific to orthopaedics, outline the challenges and opportunities, and propose recommendations for public reporting of orthopaedic outcomes. We performed a comprehensive review of the literature through a bibliographic search of MEDLINE and Google Scholar databases from January 1990 to December 2010 to identify articles related to public reporting of surgical outcomes. Orthopaedic-specific quality reporting efforts include the early FDA adverse event reporting MedWatch program and the involvement of surgeons in the Physician Quality Reporting Initiative. Issues that require more work include balancing different stakeholder perspectives on quality reporting measures and methods, defining accountability and attribution for outcomes, and appropriately risk-adjusting outcomes. Given the current limitations associated with public reporting of quality and cost in orthopaedic surgery, valuable contributions can be made in developing specialty-specific evidence-based performance measures. We believe through leadership and involvement in policy formulation and development, orthopaedic surgeons are best equipped to accurately and comprehensively inform the quality reporting process and its application to improve the delivery and outcomes of orthopaedic care.

Helicobacter pylori infection with intestinal metaplasia: An independent risk factor for colorectal adenomas

PubMed Central

Yan, Ye; Chen, Yi-Na; Zhao, Qian; Chen, Chao; Lin, Chun-Jing; Jin, Yin; Pan, Shuang; Wu, Jian-Sheng

2017-01-01

AIM To explore the association between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection status, intestinal metaplasia (IM), and colorectal adenomas. METHODS We retrospectively reviewed 1641 individuals aged ≥ 40 years who underwent physical examination, laboratory testing, 13C-urea breath testing, gastroscopy, colonoscopy, and an interview to ascertain baseline characteristics and general state of health. Histopathological results were obtained by gastric and colorectal biopsies. RESULTS The prevalence of H. pylori infection and adenomas was 51.5% (845/1641) and 18.1% (297/1641), respectively. H. pylori infection was significantly correlated with an increased risk of colorectal adenomas (crude OR = 1.535, 95%CI: 1.044-1.753, P = 0.022; adjusted OR = 1.359, 95%CI: 1.035-1.785, P = 0.028). Individuals with IM had an elevated risk of colorectal adenomas (crude OR = 1.664, 95%CI: 1.216-2.277, P = 0.001; adjusted OR = 1.381, 95%CI: 0.998-1.929, P = 0.059). Stratification based on H. pylori infection stage and IM revealed that IM accompanied by H. pylori infection was significantly associated with an increased risk of adenomas (crude OR = 2.109, 95%CI: 1.383-3.216, P = 0.001; adjusted OR = 1.765, 95%CI: 1.130-2.757, P = 0.012). CONCLUSION H. pylori-related IM is associated with a high risk of colorectal adenomas in Chinese individuals. PMID:28293091

Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

PubMed

McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

2016-08-01

To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P < 0.00001) and octreotide (odds ratio 3.30, P < 0.00001). When adjusting for risk, performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

Association of maternal chronic disease with risk of congenital heart disease in offspring

PubMed Central

Chou, Hsin-Hsu; Chiou, Meng-Jiun; Liang, Fu-Wen; Chen, Lea-Hua; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Li, Chung-Yi

2016-01-01

Background: Information about known risk factors for congenital heart disease is scarce. In this population-based study, we aimed to investigate the relation between maternal chronic disease and congenital heart disease in offspring. Methods: The study cohort consisted of 1 387 650 live births from 2004 to 2010. We identified chronic disease in mothers and mild and severe forms of congenital heart disease in their offspring from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance medical claims. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the associations of all cases and specific types of congenital heart disease with various maternal chronic diseases. Results: For mothers with the following chronic diseases, the overall prevalence of congenital heart disease in their children was significantly higher than for mothers without these diseases: diabetes mellitus type 1 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.66–3.25), diabetes mellitus type 2 (adjusted OR 2.85, 95% CI 2.60–3.12), hypertension (adjusted OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.69–2.07), congenital heart defects (adjusted OR 3.05, 95% CI 2.45–3.80), anemia (adjusted OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.25–1.38), connective tissue disorders (adjusted OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.19–1.62), epilepsy (adjusted OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.08–1.74) and mood disorders (adjusted OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.11–1.41). The same pattern held for mild forms of congenital heart disease. A higher prevalence of severe congenital heart disease was seen only among offspring of mothers with congenital heart defects or type 2 diabetes. Interpretation: The children of women with several kinds of chronic disease appear to be at risk for congenital heart disease. Preconception counselling and optimum treatment of pregnant women with chronic disease would seem prudent. PMID:27729382

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... include financial penalties for failure to submit complete data. (e) Validation of risk adjustment data... records for the validation of risk adjustment data, as required by CMS. There may be penalties for... the prior December 31. (2) CMS allows a reconciliation process to account for late data submissions...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... include financial penalties for failure to submit complete data. (e) Validation of risk adjustment data... records for the validation of risk adjustment data, as required by CMS. There may be penalties for... the prior December 31. (2) CMS allows a reconciliation process to account for late data submissions...

Novelty helmet use and motorcycle rider fatality

PubMed Central

Rice, Thomas M.; Troszak, Lara; Erhardt, Taryn; Trent, Roger B.; Zhu, Motao

2018-01-01

Objectives To compare the risk of fatal injury across helmet types among collision-involved motorcyclists. Methods We used data from a cohort of motorcyclists involved in police-reported traffic collisions. Eighty-four law enforcement agencies in California collected detailed information on helmet and rider characteristics during collision investigations in June 2012 through July 2013. Multiply-adjusted risk ratios were estimated with log-binomial regression. Results The adjusted fatal injury risk ratio for novelty helmets was 1.95 (95% CI 1.11–3.40, p 0.019), comparing novelty helmets with full-face helmets. The risk ratios for modular, open-face, and half-helmets, compared with full-face helmets, were not significant. Conclusions A more complete understanding of the inadequacy of novelty helmets can be used in educational and law enforcement countermeasures to improve helmet use among motorcycling populations in California and other US states. Law enforcement approaches to mitigating novelty helmet use would seem attractive given that novelty helmets can be visually identified by law enforcement officers with sufficient training. PMID:28431344

Adverse Childhood Experiences Related to Poor Adult Health Among Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Individuals

PubMed Central

Herrick, Harry; Proescholdbell, Scott

2016-01-01

Objectives. We explored the association of sexual orientation with poor adult health outcomes before and after adjustment for exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). Methods. Data were from the 2012 North Carolina, 2011 Washington, and 2011 and 2012 Wisconsin Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys regarding health risks, perceived poor health, and chronic conditions by sexual orientation and 8 categories of ACEs. There were 711 lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) respondents and 29 690 heterosexual respondents. Results. LGB individuals had a higher prevalence of all ACEs than heterosexuals, with odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 3.1. After adjustment for cumulative exposure to ACEs, sexual orientation was no longer associated with poor physical health, current smoking, and binge drinking. Associations with poor mental health, activity limitation, HIV risk behaviors, current asthma, depression, and disability remained, but were attenuated. Conclusions. The higher prevalence of ACEs among LGB individuals may account for some of their excess risk for poor adult health outcomes. PMID:26691127

Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at old age: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

2018-01-01

Background Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. Aims We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Method Longitudinal cohort study of 1,964 community-dwelling adults aged 65 to 79 years. Results The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% CI, 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and sex. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Conclusions Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. PMID:26941265

The role of gestational diabetes, pre-pregnancy body mass index and gestational weight gain on the risk of newborn macrosomia: results from a prospective multicentre study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background It is crucial to identify in large population samples the most important determinants of excessive fetal growth. The aim of the study was to evaluate the independent role of pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), gestational weight gain and gestational diabetes on the risk of macrosomia. Methods A prospective study collected data on mode of delivery and maternal/neonatal outcomes in eleven Hospitals in Italy. Multiple pregnancies and preterm deliveries were excluded. The sample included 14109 women with complete records. Associations between exposure variables and newborn macrosomia were analyzed using Pearson’s chi squared test. Multiple logistic regression models were built to assess the independent association between potential predictors and macrosomia. Results Maternal obesity (adjusted OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.2), excessive gestational weight gain (adjusted OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.6-2.2) and diabetes (adjusted OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-3.0 for gestational; adjusted OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.2-7.6 for pre-gestational) resulted to be independent predictors of macrosomia, when adjusted for other recognized risk factors. Since no significant interaction was found between pre-gestational BMI and gestational weight gain, excessive weight gain should be considered an independent risk factor for macrosomia. In the sub-group of women affected by gestational or pre-gestational diabetes, pre-gestational BMI was not significantly associated to macrosomia, while excessive pregnancy weight gain, maternal height and gestational age at delivery were significantly associated. In this sub-population, pregnancy weight gain less than recommended was not significantly associated to a reduction in macrosomia. Conclusions Our findings indicate that maternal obesity, gestational weight gain excess and diabetes should be considered as independent risk factors for newborn macrosomia. To adequately evaluate the clinical evolution of pregnancy all three variables need to be carefully assessed and monitored. PMID:24428895

Relationship Between a Sepsis Intervention Bundle and In-Hospital Mortality Among Hospitalized Patients: A Retrospective Analysis of Real-World Data.

PubMed

Prasad, Priya A; Shea, Erica R; Shiboski, Stephen; Sullivan, Mary C; Gonzales, Ralph; Shimabukuro, David

2017-08-01

Sepsis is a systemic response to infection that can lead to tissue damage, organ failure, and death. Efforts have been made to develop evidence-based intervention bundles to identify and manage sepsis early in the course of the disease to decrease sepsis-related morbidity and mortality. We evaluated the relationship between a minimally invasive sepsis intervention bundle and in-hospital mortality using robust methods for observational data. We performed a retrospective cohort study at the University of California, San Francisco, Medical Center among adult patients discharged between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2014, and who received a diagnosis of severe sepsis/septic shock (SS/SS). Sepsis intervention bundle elements included measurement of blood lactate; drawing of blood cultures before starting antibiotics; initiation of broad spectrum antibiotics within 3 hours of sepsis presentation in the emergency department or 1 hour of presentation on an inpatient unit; administration of intravenous fluid bolus if the patient was hypotensive or had a lactate level >4 mmol/L; and starting intravenous vasopressors if the patient remained hypotensive after fluid bolus administration. Poisson regression for a binary outcome variable was used to estimate an adjusted incidence-rate ratio (IRR) comparing mortality in groups defined by bundle compliance measured as a binary predictor, and to estimate an adjusted number needed to treat (NNT). Complete bundle compliance was associated with a 31% lower risk of mortality (adjusted IRR, 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53-0.91), adjusting for SS/SS presentation in the emergency department, SS/SS present on admission (POA), age, admission severity of illness and risk of mortality, Medicaid/Medicare payor status, immunocompromised host status, and congestive heart failure POA. The adjusted NNT to save one life was 15 (CI, 8-69). Other factors independently associated with mortality included SS/SS POA (adjusted IRR, 0.55; CI, 0.32-0.92) and increased age (adjusted IRR, 1.13 per 10-year increase in age; CI, 1.03-1.24). The University of California, San Francisco, sepsis bundle was associated with a decreased risk of in-hospital mortality across hospital units after robust control for confounders and risk adjustment. The adjusted NNT provides a reasonable and achievable goal to observe measureable improvements in outcomes for patients diagnosed with SS/SS.

Tumor Microenvironment of Metastasis and Risk of Distant Metastasis of Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Xue, Xiaonan; Lin, Hung-Mo; D’Alfonso, Timothy M.; Ginter, Paula S.; Oktay, Maja H.; Robinson, Brian D.; Ginsberg, Mindy; Gertler, Frank B.; Glass, Andrew G.; Sparano, Joseph A.; Condeelis, John S.; Jones, Joan G.

2014-01-01

Background Tumor microenvironment of metastasis (TMEM), consisting of direct contact between a macrophage, an endothelial cell, and a tumor cell, has been associated with metastasis in both rodent mammary tumors and human breast cancer. We prospectively examined the association between TMEM score and risk of distant metastasis and compared risk associated with TMEM score with that associated with IHC4. Methods We conducted a case–control study nested within a cohort of 3760 patients with invasive ductal breast carcinoma diagnosed between 1980 and 2000 and followed through 2010. Case patients were women who developed a subsequent distant metastasis; control subjects were matched (1:1) on age at and calendar year of primary diagnosis. TMEM was assessed by triple immunostain and IHC4 by standard methods; slides were read by pathologists blinded to outcome. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for clinical variables. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed, and the area under the curve was estimated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results TMEM score was associated with increased risk of distant metastasis in estrogen receptor (ER)+/human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)− tumors (multivariable OR high vs low tertile = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.39 to 5.26; P trend = .004), whereas IHC4 score had a borderline positive association (OR10 unit increase = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.13); the association for TMEM score persisted after adjustment for IHC4 score. The area under the curve for TMEM, adjusted for clinical variables, was 0.78. Neither TMEM score nor IHC4 score was independently associated with metastatic risk overall or in the triple negative or HER2+ subgroups. Conclusions TMEM score predicted risk of distant metastasis in ER+/HER2− breast cancer independently of IHC4 score and classical clinicopathologic features. PMID:24895374

Experience of violence and adverse reproductive health outcomes, HIV risks among mobile female sex workers in India

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Female sex workers (FSWs) are a population sub-group most affected by the HIV epidemic in India and elsewhere. Despite research and programmatic attention to FSWs, little is known regarding sex workers' reproductive health and HIV risk in relation to their experiences of violence. This paper therefore aims to understand the linkages between violence and the reproductive health and HIV risks among a group of mobile FSWs in India. Methods Data are drawn from a cross-sectional behavioural survey conducted in 22 districts from four high HIV prevalence states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu) in India between September 2007 and July 2008. The survey sample included 5,498 FSWs who had moved to at least two different places for sex work in the past two years, and are classified as mobile FSWs in the current study. Analyses calculated the prevalence of past year experiences of violence; and adjusted logistic regression models examined the association between violence and reproductive health and HIV risks after controlling for background characteristics and program exposure. Results Approximately one-third of the total mobile FSWs (30.5%, n = 1,676) reported experiencing violence at least once in the past year; 11% reported experiencing physical violence, and 19.5% reported experiencing sexual violence. Results indicate that FSWs who had experienced any violence (physical or sexual) were significantly more likely to be vulnerable to both reproductive health and HIV risks. For example, FSWs who experienced violence were more likely than those who did not experience violence to have experienced a higher number of pregnancies (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-1.6), ever experienced pregnancy loss (adjusted OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.2-1.6), ever experienced forced termination of pregnancy (adjusted OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 2.0-2.7), experienced multiple forced termination of pregnancies (adjusted OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.7-2.8), and practice inconsistent condom use currently (adjusted OR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.4-2.0). Among FSWs who experienced violence, those who experienced sexual violence were more likely than those who had experienced physical violence to report inconsistent condom use (adjusted OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.4-2.3), and experience STI symptoms (adjusted OR = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1-1.7). Conclusion The pervasiveness of violence and its association with reproductive health and HIV risk highlights that the abuse in general is an important determinant for reproductive health risks; and sexual violence is significantly associated with HIV risks among those who experienced violence. Existing community mobilization programs that have primarily focused on empowering FSWs should broaden their efforts to promote reproductive health in addition to the prevention of HIV among all FSWs, with particular emphasis on FSWs who experienced violence. PMID:21599984

Dieting and smoking initiation in early adolescent girls and boys: a prospective study.

PubMed Central

Austin, S B; Gortmaker, S L

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This analysis tested the relation between dieting frequency and risk of smoking initiation in a longitudinal sample of adolescents. METHODS: From 1995 to 1997, 1295 middle school girls and boys participated in a nutrition and physical activity intervention study. The prospective association between dieting frequency at baseline and smoking initiation 2 years later was tested. RESULTS: Compared with girls who reported no dieting at baseline, girls who dieted up to once per week had 2 times the adjusted odds of becoming smokers (odds ratio = 2.0; 95% confidence interval = 1.1, 3.5), and girls who dieted more often had 4 times the adjusted odds of becoming smokers (odds ratio = 3.9; 95% confidence interval = 1.5, 10.4). CONCLUSIONS: Dieting among girls may exacerbate risk of initiating smoking, with increasing risk with greater dieting frequency. PMID:11236412

Does Occupation Explain Gender and Other Differences in Work-Related Eye Injury Hospitalization Rates?

PubMed Central

Smith, Gordon S.; Lincoln, Andrew E.; Wong, Tien Y.; Bell, Nicole S.; Vinger, Paul F.; Amoroso, Paul J.; Lombardi, David A.

2007-01-01

Objective We sought to determine whether demographic differences in eye injury rates persist after adjusting for occupational exposure. Methods On-duty eye injury hospitalizations were linked to occupation among active-duty US Army personnel. Results Eye injury rates were higher for white solidiers, men, and for younger soldiers, even after adjusting for occupational group and specific job titles using multivariate models. Conclusions This finding contrasts with studies of other injuries, suggesting that occupation does not fully account for variations in eye injury risk. Because protective eyewear can prevent most serious eye injuries, we hypothesize that differences in protective eyewear use between men and women may contribute to differences in eye injury rates, although follow-up studies are needed to confirm this. Prevention efforts should consider targeting high-risk demographic groups in addition to high-risk occupations. PMID:15951724

Prediabetes Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Testosterone Deficiency, Independent of Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome

PubMed Central

Ho, Chen-Hsun; Yu, Hong-Jeng; Wang, Chih-Yuan; Jaw, Fu-Shan; Hsieh, Ju-Ton; Liao, Wan-Chung; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liu, Shih-Ping

2013-01-01

Objective The association between type 2 diabetes and low testosterone has been well recognized. However, testosterone levels in men with prediabetes have been rarely reported. We aimed to investigate whether prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of testosterone deficiency. Methods This study included 1,306 men whose sex hormones was measured during a medical examination. Serum total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin were measured; free and bioavailable testosterone concentrations were calculated by Vermeulen’s formula. Prediabetes was defined by impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired postprandial glucose (IPG), or glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) 5.7%-6.4%. Logistic regression was performed to obtain the odds ratios (OR) for subnormal total testosterone (<300 ng/dL) or free testosterone (<6 ng/dL) in prediabetic and diabetic men compared with normoglycemic individuals, while adjusting for age, BMI, waist circumference, and metabolic syndrome (MetS). Results Normoglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes were diagnosed in 577 (44.2%), 543 (41.6%), and 186 (14.2%) men, respectively. Prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of subnormal total testosterone compared to normoglycemic individuals (age-adjusted OR=1.87; 95%CI=1.38-2.54). The risk remained significant in all multivariate analyses. After adjusting for MetS, the OR in prediabetic men equals that of diabetic patients (1.49 versus 1.50). IFG, IPG, and HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% were all associated with an increased risk of testosterone deficiency, with different levels of significance in multivariate analyses. However, neither prediabetes nor diabetes was associated with subnormal free testosterone in multivariate analyses. Conclusions Prediabetes is associated with an increased risk of testosterone deficiency, independent of obesity and MetS. After adjusting for MetS, the risk equals that of diabetes. Our data suggest that testosterone should be measured routinely in men with prediabetes. PMID:24069277

Evidence That Breast Tissue Stiffness Is Associated with Risk of Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Boyd, Norman F.; Li, Qing; Melnichouk, Olga; Huszti, Ella; Martin, Lisa J.; Gunasekara, Anoma; Mawdsley, Gord; Yaffe, Martin J.; Minkin, Salomon

2014-01-01

Background Evidence from animal models shows that tissue stiffness increases the invasion and progression of cancers, including mammary cancer. We here use measurements of the volume and the projected area of the compressed breast during mammography to derive estimates of breast tissue stiffness and examine the relationship of stiffness to risk of breast cancer. Methods Mammograms were used to measure the volume and projected areas of total and radiologically dense breast tissue in the unaffected breasts of 362 women with newly diagnosed breast cancer (cases) and 656 women of the same age who did not have breast cancer (controls). Measures of breast tissue volume and the projected area of the compressed breast during mammography were used to calculate the deformation of the breast during compression and, with the recorded compression force, to estimate the stiffness of breast tissue. Stiffness was compared in cases and controls, and associations with breast cancer risk examined after adjustment for other risk factors. Results After adjustment for percent mammographic density by area measurements, and other risk factors, our estimate of breast tissue stiffness was significantly associated with breast cancer (odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval = 1.03, 1.43, p = 0.02) and improved breast cancer risk prediction in models with percent mammographic density, by both area and volume measurements. Conclusion An estimate of breast tissue stiffness was associated with breast cancer risk and improved risk prediction based on mammographic measures and other risk factors. Stiffness may provide an additional mechanism by which breast tissue composition is associated with risk of breast cancer and merits examination using more direct methods of measurement. PMID:25010427

[Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

PubMed

Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

2017-11-01

The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self-explanatory technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and "national average" are easy to understand and the comprehension is correlated with hospitals choices, we recommend using them for the presentation of measures which contain risk-adjusted mortality. The technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range" should stay in the background, since comprehension problems can be expected and explanations would have to be provided. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Does unemployment cause long-term mortality? Selection and causation after the 1992–96 deep Swedish recession

PubMed Central

Garcy, Anthony M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Mass unemployment in Europe is endemic, especially among the young. Does it cause mortality? Methods: We analyzed long-term effects of unemployment occurring during the deep Swedish recession 1992–96. Mortality from all and selected causes was examined in the 6-year period after the recession among those employed in 1990 (3.4 million). Direct health selection was analyzed as risk of unemployment by prior medical history based on all hospitalizations 1981–91. Unemployment effects on mortality were estimated with and without adjustment for prior social characteristics and for prior medical history. Results: A prior circulatory disease history did not predict unemployment; a history of alcohol-related disease or suicide attempts did, in men and women. Unemployment predicted excess male, but not female, mortality from circulatory disease, both ischemic heart disease and stroke, and from all causes combined, after full adjustment. Adjustment for prior social characteristics reduced estimates considerably; additional adjustment for prior medical history did not. Mortality from external and alcohol-related causes was raised in men and women experiencing unemployment, after adjustment for social characteristics and medical history. For the youngest birth cohorts fully adjusted alcohol mortality HRs were substantial (male HR = 4.44; female HR = 5.73). The effect of unemployment on mortality was not uniform across the population; men, those with a low education, low income, unmarried or in urban employment were more vulnerable. Conclusions: Direct selection by medical history explains a modest fraction of any increased mortality risk following unemployment. Mass unemployment imposes long-term mortality risk on a sizeable segment of the population. PMID:27085193

Relation of type A behavior pattern and job-related psychosocial factors to nonfatal myocardial infarction: a case-control study of Japanese male workers and women.

PubMed

Yoshimasu, K

2001-01-01

To study the relation of type A behavior pattern and job-related psychosocial factors to the risk of myocardial infarction. Study subjects comprised 290 cases (173 male workers and 117 women) of nonfatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and 489 controls (303 male workers and 186 women) recruited from among residents of the study area. Participation rates of cases and controls were 86% and 50%, respectively. Type A behavior pattern, job-related psychosocial factors, and other coronary risk factors were ascertained by interview using a questionnaire. Type A behavior pattern was measured by 12 questions, and job strain by the method of Karasek. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate odds ratio and 95% confidence interval with adjustment for potential confounding variables. The relation to job strain was examined only in men. Type A behavior pattern was significantly associated with an increased risk of AMI in male workers (adjusted OR = 1.9, 95% CI, 1.2-2.9) and in women (adjusted OR = 2.8, 95% CI, 1.6-4.9). Although job control and job demand showed no material association with AMI, job strain, a combination of low job control and high job demand was associated with an increased risk of AMI (adjusted OR = 2.2, 95% CI, 1.1-4.5). Abbreviated type A score and job demand score were higher among nonparticipant control candidates than participant controls in male workers. Type A behavior pattern may be an important risk factor for AMI especially in Japanese women. The present study also revealed persons in stressful psychosocial circumstances were less likely to participate in the study.

Comorbidities in patients with gout prior to and following diagnosis: case-control study

PubMed Central

Kuo, Chang-Fu; Grainge, Matthew J; Mallen, Christian; Zhang, Weiya; Doherty, Michael

2016-01-01

Objectives To determine the burden of comorbidities in patients with gout at diagnosis and the risk of developing new comorbidities post diagnosis. Methods There were 39 111 patients with incident gout and 39 111 matched controls identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Data-link. The risk of comorbidity before (ORs) and after the diagnosis of gout (HRs) were estimated, adjusted for age, sex, diagnosis year, body mass index, smoking and alcohol consumption. Results Gout was associated with adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of 1.39 (1.34 to 1.45), 1.89 (1.76 to 2.03) and 2.51 (2.19 to 2.86) for the Charlson index of 1–2, 3–4 and ≥5, respectively. Cardiovascular and genitourinary diseases, in addition to hyperlipidaemia, hypothyroidism, anaemia, psoriasis, chronic pulmonary diseases, osteoarthritis and depression, were associated with a higher risk for gout. Gout was also associated with an adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.41 (1.34 to 1.48) for having a Charlson index ≥1. Median time to first comorbidity was 43 months in cases and 111 months in controls. Risks for incident comorbidity were higher in cardiovascular, genitourinary, metabolic/endocrine and musculoskeletal diseases, in addition to liver diseases, hemiplegia, depression, anaemia and psoriasis in patients with gout. After additionally adjusting for all comorbidities at diagnosis, gout was associated with a HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality of 1.13 (1.08 to 1.18; p<0.001). Conclusions The majority of patients with gout have worse pre-existing health status at diagnosis and the risk of incident comorbidity continues to rise following diagnosis. The range of associated comorbidities is broader than previously recognised and merits further evaluation. PMID:25398375

Family employment and child socioemotional behaviour: longitudinal findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Hope, Steven; Pearce, Anna; Whitehead, Margaret; Law, Catherine

2014-01-01

Background Levels of paid employment in two parent and lone parent families have increased in the UK but evidence of its impact on child socioemotional behaviour is limited and inconsistent. Methods We conducted a longitudinal analysis using the first four sweeps of the Millennium Cohort Study (9 months, 3 years, 5 years and 7 years) to investigate the influence of family employment trajectories in the early years on socioemotional behaviour at 7 years, unadjusted and adjusted for covariates. In addition, mothers’ employment was investigated separately. Results Children from families where no parent was employed for one or more sweeps were at a greater risk of socioemotional problem behaviour compared with those where a parent was continuously employed, even after adjustment for covariates. Children of mothers who were non-employed for one or more sweeps were at greater risk of problem behaviour compared with mothers who were employed at all sweeps. Adjustment for covariates fully attenuated the excess risk for children whose mothers had moved into employment by the time they were 7 years. In contrast, the elevated risk associated with continuous non-employment and a single transition out of employment was attenuated after adjustment for early covariates, fathers’ employment, household income and mothers’ psychological distress at 7 years, but remained significant. Conclusions Family and mothers’ employment were associated with a lower risk of problem behaviour for children in middle childhood, in part explained by sociodemographic characteristics of families and the apparent psychological and socioeconomic benefits of employment. Results for mothers’ transitions in or out of the labour market suggest that child problem behaviour is influenced by current status, over and above diverse earlier experiences of employment and non-employment. PMID:24889054

Stroke Symptoms as a Predictor of Future Hospitalization

PubMed Central

Howard, Virginia J.; Safford, Monika M.; Allen, Shauntice; Judd, Suzanne E.; Rhodes, J. David; Kleindorfer, Dawn O.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Meschia, James F.; Howard, George

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Stroke symptoms in the general adult population are common and associated with stroke risk factors, lower physical and mental functioning, impaired cognitive status, and future stroke. Our objective was to determine the association of stroke symptoms with self-reported hospitalization or emergency department (ED) visit. METHODS Lifetime history of stroke symptoms (sudden weakness, numbness, unilateral or general loss of vision, loss of ability to communicate or understand) was assessed at baseline in a national, population-based, longitudinal cohort study of 30,239 blacks and whites, ≥ 45 years, enrolled 2003–2007. Self-reported hospitalization or ED visit and reason were collected during follow-up through March 2013. The symptom-hospitalization association was assessed by proportional hazards analysis in persons stroke/TIA-free at baseline (27,126) with adjustment for sociodemographics and further adjustment for risk factors. RESULTS One or more stroke symptoms were reported by 4,758 (17.5%). After adjustment for sociodemographics, stroke symptoms were most strongly associated with greater risk of hospitalization/ED for cardiovascular disease (HR = 1.87; 95% CI: 1.78 – 1.96), stroke (HR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.55 – 1.85), and any reason (HR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.34 – 1.44). These associations remained significant and only modestly reduced after risk factor adjustment. CONCLUSIONS Stroke symptoms are a marker for future hospitalization and ED visit not only for stroke but for cardiovascular disease in general. Findings suggest a role for stroke symptom assessment as a novel and simple approach for identifying individuals at high risk for cardiovascular disease including stroke in whom preventive strategies could be implemented. PMID:26774871

Neighborhood socioeconomic index and stroke incidence in a national cohort of blacks and whites

PubMed Central

McClure, Leslie A.; Kleindorfer, Dawn O.; Cunningham, Solveig A.; Thrift, Amanda G.; Diez Roux, Ana V.; Howard, George

2016-01-01

Objective: To assess the relationship between neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics and incident stroke in a national cohort of black and white participants. Methods: The study comprised black (n = 10,274, 41%) and white (n = 14,601) stroke-free participants, aged 45 and older, enrolled in 2003–2007 in Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS), a national population-based cohort. A neighborhood socioeconomic score (nSES) was constructed using 6 neighborhood variables. Incident stroke was defined as first occurrence of stroke over an average 7.5 (SD 3.0) years of follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to estimate associations between nSES score and incident stroke, adjusted for demographics (age, race, sex, region), individual socioeconomic status (SES) (education, household income), and other risk factors for stroke. Results: After adjustment for demographics, compared to the highest nSES quartile, stroke incidence increased with each decreasing nSES quartile. The hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) ranged from 1.28 (1.05–1.56) in quartile 3 to 1.38 (1.13–1.68) in quartile 2 to 1.56 (1.26–1.92) in quartile 1 (p < 0.0001 for linear trend). After adjustment for individual SES, the trend remained marginally significant (p = 0.085). Although there was no evidence of a differential effect by race or sex, adjustment for stroke risk factors attenuated the association between nSES and stroke in both black and white participants, with greater attenuation in black participants. Conclusions: Risk of incident stroke increased with decreasing nSES but the effect of nSES is attenuated through individual SES and stroke risk factors. The effect of neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics that contribute to increased stroke risk is similar in black and white participants. PMID:27742815

Diminished Global Arginine Bioavailability and Increased Arginine Catabolism as Metabolic Profile of Increased Cardiovascular Risk

PubMed Central

Tang, W. H. Wilson; Wang, Zeneng; Cho, Leslie; Brennan, Danielle M.; Hazen, Stanley L.

2009-01-01

Objective We hypothesized that an integrated assessment of arginine with its catabolic products may better predict cardiovascular risks than arginine levels alone. Background Arginine is the sole nitrogen source for nitric oxide (NO) synthesis. The major catabolic products of arginine are ornithine and citrulline. Methods Plasma levels of free arginine, ornithine, citrulline and the endogenous NO synthase inhibitor asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) were measured using LC/MS/MS. We examined the relationship of global arginine bioavailability ratio (GABR, defined as arginine/[ornithine+citrulline]) vs. arginine and its catabolic metabolites to prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE = death, myocardial infarction, stroke) over a 3-year follow-up in 1,010 subjects undergoing elective cardiac catheterization. Results Patients with CAD had significantly lower GABR [median(IQR); 1.06(0.75, 1.31) versus 1.27(0.96, 1.73), p<0.001] and arginine levels [mean: 68 ±20 μM versus 74 ±24 μM, p<0.001) than those without CAD. After adjusting for Framingham risk score, C-reactive protein, and renal function, lower GABR (but not arginine levels) and higher citrulline levels remained significantly associated with both prevalence of CAD [adjusted odds-ratio (OR) 3.93, p<0.001 and 5.98, p<0.001, respectively] and 3-year risk for incidence of MACE [adjusted Hazard ratio (HR) 1.98, p=0.025 and 2.40, p=0.01, respectively], and remained significant after adjusting for ADMA. Conclusions GABR may serve as a more comprehensive concept of reduced NO synthetic capacity compared to systemic arginine levels. Diminished GABR and high citrulline levels are associated with both development of atherosclerotic CAD and heightened long-term risk for major adverse cardiac events. PMID:19477356

Contributions of Familial Rheumatoid Arthritis or Lupus and Environmental Factors to Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis in Women: a Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Sparks, Jeffrey A.; Chen, Chia-Yen; Hiraki, Linda T.; Malspeis, Susan; Costenbader, Karen H.; Karlson, Elizabeth W.

2014-01-01

Objective We assessed the contributions of familial rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or lupus and environmental factors to risk of RA. Methods Among 121,700 women in the Nurses’ Health Study, 65,457 provided data on familial RA/lupus. Among these, 493 RA cases (301 seropositive and 192 seronegative) were validated. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for RA comparing those with and without familial RA/lupus, adjusting for environmental factors (smoking, alcohol, body mass index [BMI], parity, breastfeeding, menopause, hormone use, early menarche, and menstrual regularity) using Cox proportional hazards models. Population attributable risks (PAR) for RA within this cohort were calculated for familial RA/lupus, smoking, alcohol, BMI, parity, and breastfeeding. Results Familial RA/lupus was significantly associated with RA (HR 3.67), seropositive RA (HR 3.90) and seronegative RA (HR 3.95). After adjusting for environmental factors, familial RA/lupus was significantly associated with RA (HR 3.59, 95% confidence interval 2.94–4.37). Smoking >10 pack-years, alcohol intake 5–10 g/day, overweight, breastfeeding ≥12 months, and pre-menopausal status remained significantly associated with RA after adjusting for familial RA/lupus. For RA in this cohort, the PAR for smoking, BMI, alcohol, parity, or breastfeeding collectively was 41%; the PAR due to heredity from familial RA/lupus was 21%. Conclusion In this large, prospective cohort, women with familial RA/lupus had a four-fold increased risk for RA that remained significant after adjusting for environmental factors. A large proportion of RA risk was attributable to environmental factors even among those with familial RA/lupus. PMID:25103278

Quality of pancreatic transplant program assessment using a risk-adjusted cumulative sum chart: experience from a single, small center.

PubMed

Grochowiecki, T; Jakimowicz, T; Grabowska-Derlatka, L; Szmidt, J

2014-10-01

The high rate of complication after pancreas transplantation not only had an impact on recipient quality of life and survival but also had significant financial implications. Thus, monitoring transplant center performance was crucial to indentifying changes in clinical practice that result in quality deterioration. To evaluate retrospectively the quality of the single, small pancreatic transplant program and to establish prospective monitoring of the center using risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM). From 1988 to 2014, 119 simultaneous pancreas and the kidney transplantations (SPKTx) were performed. The program was divided into 3 eras, based on surgical technique and immunosuppression. Analyses of the 15 fatal outcomes due to complication from pancreatic graft were performed. The risk model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis based on retrospective data of 112 SPKTx recipients. The risk-adjusted 1-sided CUSUM chart was plotted for retrospective and prospective events. The upper control limit was set to 2. There were 2 main causes of death: multiorgan failure (73.3%; 11/15) and septic hemorrhage (26.7%; 4/15). Quality analysis using the CUSUM chart revealed that the process was not homogeneous; however, no significant signal of program deterioration was obtained and the performance of the whole program was within the settled control limit. For a single pancreatic transplant center. The risk-adjusted CUSUM chart was a useful tool for quality program assessment. It could support decision making during traditional surgical morbidity and mortality conferences. For small transplant centers, increasing the sensitivity of the CUSUM method by lowering the upper control limit should be considered. However, an individual assessment approach of the for particular centers is recommended.

A demand-side view of risk adjustment.

PubMed

Feldman, R; Dowd, B E; Maciejewski, M

2001-01-01

This paper analyzes the efficient allocation of consumers to health plans. Specifically, we address the question of why employers that offer multiple health plans often make larger contributions to the premiums of the high-cost plans. Our perspective is that the subsidy for high-cost plans represents a form of demand-side risk adjustment that improves efficiency. Without such subsidies (and in the absence of formal risk adjustment), too few employees would choose the high-cost plans preferred by high-risk workers. We test the theory by estimating a model of the employer premium subsidy, using data from a survey of large public employers in 1994. Our empirical analysis shows that employers are more likely to subsidize high-cost plans when the benefits of risk adjustment are greater. The findings suggest that the premium subsidy can accomplish some of the benefits of formal risk adjustment.

Risk-adjusted monitoring of survival times

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sego, Landon H.; Reynolds, Marion R.; Woodall, William H.

2009-02-26

We consider the monitoring of clinical outcomes, where each patient has a di®erent risk of death prior to undergoing a health care procedure.We propose a risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM chart (RAST CUSUM) for monitoring clinical outcomes where the primary endpoint is a continuous, time-to-event variable that may be right censored. Risk adjustment is accomplished using accelerated failure time regression models. We compare the average run length performance of the RAST CUSUM chart to the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, using data from cardiac surgeries to motivate the details of the comparison. The comparisons show that the RAST CUSUM chart is moremore » efficient at detecting a sudden decrease in the odds of death than the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, especially when the fraction of censored observations is not too high. We also discuss the implementation of a prospective monitoring scheme using the RAST CUSUM chart.« less

45 CFR 153.10 - Basis and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT General... program for individual market in each State. (3) Section 1342. Establishment of risk corridors for plans... risk corridors program, and a permanent risk adjustment program. ...

45 CFR 153.10 - Basis and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT General... program for individual market in each State. (3) Section 1342. Establishment of risk corridors for plans... risk corridors program, and a permanent risk adjustment program. ...

45 CFR 153.10 - Basis and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT General... program for individual market in each State. (3) Section 1342. Establishment of risk corridors for plans... risk corridors program, and a permanent risk adjustment program. ...

The Association of Waist Circumference with Walking Difficulty Among Adults with or at Risk of Knee Osteoarthritis: The Osteoarthritis Initiative

PubMed Central

Gill, Simone V.; Hicks, Gregory E.; Zhang, Yuqing; Niu, Jingbo; Apovian, Caroline M.; White, Daniel K.

2016-01-01

Objective Excess weight is a known risk factor for functional limitation and common in adults with knee osteoarthritis (OA). We asked to what extent high waist circumference was linked with developing difficulty with walking speed and distance over 4 years in adults with or at risk of knee OA. Method Using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative, we employed WHO categories for Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference (small/medium and large). Difficulty with speed was defined by slow gait: < 1.2 m/s during a 20-meter walk, and difficulty with distance was defined by an inability to walk 400 meters. We calculated risk ratios (RR) to examine the likelihood of developing difficulty with distance and speed using obesity and waist circumference as predictors with RRs adjusted for potential confounders (i.e., age, sex, race, education, physical activity, and OA status). Results Participants with obesity and large waists were 2.2 times more likely to have difficulty with speed at 4 years compared to healthy weight and small/medium waisted participants (Adjusted RR 2.2 [95% Confidence interval (CI) 1.6, 3.1], P < .0001). Participants with obesity and a large waist circumference had 2.4 times the risk of developing the inability to walk 400 meters compared with those with a healthy BMI and small/medium waist circumference (Adjusted RR 0.9 [95% CI 1.6, 3.7], P < .0001). Conclusions Waist circumference may be a main risk factor for developing difficulty with speed in adults with or at risk of knee OA. PMID:27492464

Menopause and risk of diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program

PubMed Central

Kim, Catherine; Edelstein, Sharon L.; Crandall, Jill P.; Dabelea, Dana; Kitabchi, Abbas E.; Hamman, Richard F.; Montez, Maria G.; Perreault, Leigh; Foulkes, Mary A.; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

Objective The study objective was to examine the association between menopause status and diabetes risk among women with glucose intolerance and to determine if menopausal status modifies response to diabetes prevention interventions. Methods The study population included women in premenopause (n=708), natural postmenopause (n=328), and bilateral oophorectomy (n=201) in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), a randomized placebo-controlled trial of lifestyle intervention and metformin among glucose intolerant adults. Associations between menopause and diabetes risk were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models that adjusted for demographic variables (age, race/ethnicity, family history of diabetes, history of gestational diabetes mellitus), waist circumference, insulin resistance and corrected insulin response. Similar models were constructed after stratification by menopause type and hormone therapy (HT) use. Results After adjustment for age, there was no association between natural menopause or bilateral oophorectomy and diabetes risk. Differences by study arm were observed in women who reported bilateral oophorectomy. In the lifestyle arm, women with bilateral oophorectomy had a lower adjusted hazard for diabetes (HR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04, 0.94), although observations were too few to determine if this was independent of HT use. No significant differences were seen in the metformin (HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.63, 2.64) or placebo arms (HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.74, 2.55). Conclusions Among women at high-risk for diabetes, natural menopause was not associated with diabetes risk and did not affect response to diabetes prevention interventions. In the lifestyle intervention, bilateral oophorectomy was associated with decreased diabetes risk. PMID:21709591

Risk of anxiety and depressive disorders in patients with myocardial infarction: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Feng, Hsin-Pei; Chien, Wu-Chien; Cheng, Wei-Tung; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Cheng, Shu-Meng; Tzeng, Wen-Chii

2016-08-01

Anxiety and depressive symptoms are associated with adverse cardiovascular events after an acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, most studies focusing on anxiety or depression have used rating scales or self-report methods rather than clinical diagnosis. This study aimed to investigate the association between psychiatrist-diagnosed psychiatric disorders and cardiovascular prognosis.We sampled data from the National Health Insurance Research Database; 1396 patients with MI were recruited as the study cohort and 13,960 patients without MI were recruited as the comparison cohort. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the effect of MI on the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders.During the first 2 years of follow-up, patients with MI exhibited a significantly higher risk of anxiety disorders (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 5.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.61-5.54) and depressive disorders (adjusted HR = 7.23, 95% CI: 4.88-10.88) than those without MI did. Greater risk for anxiety and depressive disorders was observed among women and patients aged 45 to 64 years following an acute MI. Patients with post-MI anxiety had a 9.37-fold (95% CI: 4.45-19.70) higher risk of recurrent MI than those without MI did after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities.This nationwide population-based cohort study provides evidence that MI increases the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders during the first 2 years post-MI, and post-MI anxiety disorders are associated with a higher risk of recurrent MI.

Risk of anxiety and depressive disorders in patients with myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Feng, Hsin-Pei; Chien, Wu-Chien; Cheng, Wei-Tung; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Cheng, Shu-Meng; Tzeng, Wen-Chii

2016-01-01

Abstract Anxiety and depressive symptoms are associated with adverse cardiovascular events after an acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, most studies focusing on anxiety or depression have used rating scales or self-report methods rather than clinical diagnosis. This study aimed to investigate the association between psychiatrist-diagnosed psychiatric disorders and cardiovascular prognosis. We sampled data from the National Health Insurance Research Database; 1396 patients with MI were recruited as the study cohort and 13,960 patients without MI were recruited as the comparison cohort. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the effect of MI on the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders. During the first 2 years of follow-up, patients with MI exhibited a significantly higher risk of anxiety disorders (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 5.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.61–5.54) and depressive disorders (adjusted HR = 7.23, 95% CI: 4.88–10.88) than those without MI did. Greater risk for anxiety and depressive disorders was observed among women and patients aged 45 to 64 years following an acute MI. Patients with post-MI anxiety had a 9.37-fold (95% CI: 4.45–19.70) higher risk of recurrent MI than those without MI did after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities. This nationwide population-based cohort study provides evidence that MI increases the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders during the first 2 years post-MI, and post-MI anxiety disorders are associated with a higher risk of recurrent MI. PMID:27559951

Health-adjusted premium subsidies in the Netherlands.

PubMed

van de Ven, Wynand P M M; van Vliet, René C J A; Lamers, Leida M

2004-01-01

The Dutch government has decided to proceed with managed competition in health care. In this paper we report on progress made with health-based risk adjustment, a key issue in managed competition. In 2004 both Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs) computed from hospital diagnoses only and Pharmacy-based Cost Groups (PCGs) computed from out-patient prescription drugs are used to set the premium subsidies for competing risk-bearing sickness funds. These health-based risk adjusters appear to be effective and complementary. Risk selection is not a major problem in the Netherlands. Despite the progress made, we are still faced with a full research agenda for risk adjustment in the coming years.

Effects of a School Based Program to Improve Adaptive School Behavior and Social Competencies among Elementary School Youth: The Living Skills Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prince, Kort C.; Ho, Edward A.; Hansen, Sharon B.

2010-01-01

This study examined the effects of the Living Skills school-based intervention program as a method of improving school adjustment and the social lives of at-risk elementary school students. Youth participants were referred to the program by teachers or school counselors based on perceptions of risk due to rejection and isolation, aggressive and…

Geographic Distribution of Healthy Resources and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes.

PubMed

Young, Christopher; Laurent, Olivier; Chung, Judith H; Wu, Jun

2016-08-01

Objective To determine the risk of gestational diabetes (GDM) and preeclampsia associated with various community resources. Methods An ecological study was performed in Los Angeles and Orange counties in California. Fast food restaurants, supermarkets, grocery stores, gyms, health clubs and green space were identified using Google © Maps Extractor and through the Southern California Association of Government. California Birth Certificate data was used to identify cases of GDM and preeclampsia. Unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios were calculated using negative binomial regression. Results There were 9692 cases of GDM and 6288 cases of preeclampsia corresponding to incidences of 2.5 and 1.4 % respectively. The adjusted risk of GDM was reduced in zip codes with greater concentration of grocery stores [relative risk (RR) 0.95, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.92-0.99] and supermarkets (RR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.90-0.98). There were no significant relationships between preeclampsia and the concentration of fast food restaurants, grocery store, supermarkets or the amount of green space. Conclusion The distribution of community resources has a significant association with the risk of developing GDM but not preeclampsia.

Complex dynamics of a MC-MS pricing model for a risk-averse supply chain with after-sale investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Sun, Lijian

2015-09-01

In this paper, we investigate the pricing strategy of the manufacturers and that of a common retailer, including their after-sale investment in a risk-averse supply chain. As the demand is not always for sure, the supply chain follows Manufacturers Cooperating (MC) and Manufacturers Stackelberg (MS). The main objective of the paper is to investigate the influence of the decision parameters such as the after-sale investment, wholesale price adjustment speed and risk preference on the stability and utilities of the risk-averse supply chain. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed with 2D-bifurcation diagrams, double largest Lyapunov exponent and basins of attraction. The study shows that the faster the adjustment speed is, the more profits the retailer can make, but on the other hand, it is no good to manufacturers. Risk tolerance levels (RM and RR) affect the utility of the manufacturers and that of the retailer differently. A feedback control method is used to control the chaos in the supply chain.

Sleep duration, cognitive decline, and dementia risk in older women

PubMed Central

Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Espeland, Mark A.; Brunner, Robert L.; Lovato, Laura C.; Wallace, Robert B.; Leng, Xiaoyan; Phillips, Lawrence S.; Robinson, Jennifer G.; Kotchen, Jane M.; Johnson, Karen C.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Sarto, Gloria E.; Mysiw, W. Jerry

2015-01-01

Background Consistent evidence linking habitual sleep duration with risks of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia is lacking. Methods We conducted a prospective study on 7444 community-dwelling women (aged 65–80) with self-reported sleep duration, within the Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study in 1995–2008. Incident MCI/dementia cases were ascertained by validated protocols. Cox models were used to adjust for multiple sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, depression, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and other clinical characteristics. Results We found a statistically significant (p=0.03) V-shaped association, with a higher MCI/dementia risk in women with either short (≤6 hours/night) or long (≥8 hours/night) sleep duration (vs.7 hours/night). The multicovariate-adjusted hazard for MCI/dementia was increased by 36% in short sleepers irrespective of CVD, and by 35% in long sleepers without CVD. A similar V-shaped association was found with cognitive decline. Conclusion In older women, habitual sleep duration predicts the future risk for cognitive impairments including dementia, independent of vascular risk factors. PMID:26086180

A clinical economics workstation for risk-adjusted health care cost management.

PubMed Central

Eisenstein, E. L.; Hales, J. W.

1995-01-01

This paper describes a healthcare cost accounting system which is under development at Duke University Medical Center. Our approach differs from current practice in that this system will dynamically adjust its resource usage estimates to compensate for variations in patient risk levels. This adjustment is made possible by introducing a new cost accounting concept, Risk-Adjusted Quantity (RQ). RQ divides case-level resource usage variances into their risk-based component (resource consumption differences attributable to differences in patient risk levels) and their non-risk-based component (resource consumption differences which cannot be attributed to differences in patient risk levels). Because patient risk level is a factor in estimating resource usage, this system is able to simultaneously address the financial and quality dimensions of case cost management. In effect, cost-effectiveness analysis is incorporated into health care cost management. PMID:8563361

Adjusting for Confounding in Early Postlaunch Settings: Going Beyond Logistic Regression Models.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klungel, Olaf H; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-01-01

Postlaunch data on medical treatments can be analyzed to explore adverse events or relative effectiveness in real-life settings. These analyses are often complicated by the number of potential confounders and the possibility of model misspecification. We conducted a simulation study to compare the performance of logistic regression, propensity score, disease risk score, and stabilized inverse probability weighting methods to adjust for confounding. Model misspecification was induced in the independent derivation dataset. We evaluated performance using relative bias confidence interval coverage of the true effect, among other metrics. At low events per coefficient (1.0 and 0.5), the logistic regression estimates had a large relative bias (greater than -100%). Bias of the disease risk score estimates was at most 13.48% and 18.83%. For the propensity score model, this was 8.74% and >100%, respectively. At events per coefficient of 1.0 and 0.5, inverse probability weighting frequently failed or reduced to a crude regression, resulting in biases of -8.49% and 24.55%. Coverage of logistic regression estimates became less than the nominal level at events per coefficient ≤5. For the disease risk score, inverse probability weighting, and propensity score, coverage became less than nominal at events per coefficient ≤2.5, ≤1.0, and ≤1.0, respectively. Bias of misspecified disease risk score models was 16.55%. In settings with low events/exposed subjects per coefficient, disease risk score methods can be useful alternatives to logistic regression models, especially when propensity score models cannot be used. Despite better performance of disease risk score methods than logistic regression and propensity score models in small events per coefficient settings, bias, and coverage still deviated from nominal.

Risk of suicide in male prison inmates.

PubMed

Saavedra, Javier; López, Marcelino

2015-01-01

Many studies have demonstrated that the risk of suicide in prison is higher than in the general population. This study has two aims. First, to explore the risk of suicide in men sentenced in Andalusian prisons. And second, to study the sociodemographic, criminal and, especially, psychopathological factors associated with this risk. An assessment was made of 472 sentenced inmates in two Andalusian prisons, and included a sociodemographic interview, the IPDE personality disorders questionnaire, the SCID-I diagnostic interview (DSMIV), and the Plutchick suicide risk questionnaire. The interviewers were experienced clinical psychologists with training in prison environments. Adjusted ORs were calculated using a logistic regression. A risk of committing suicide was detected in 33.5% of the sample. The diagnoses (lifetime prevalence) of affective disorder (adjusted OR 3329), substance dependence disorders (adjusted OR 2733), personality disorders (adjusted OR 3115) and anxiety disorder (adjusted OR 1650), as well as a family psychiatric history (adjusted OR 1650), were the predictors that remained as risk factors after the regression analysis. No socio-demographic risk factor was significant in the regression analysis. The psychopathological variables are essential and the most powerful factors to explain suicide risk in prisons. A correct and systematic diagnosis, and an appropriate treatment by mental health professionals during the imprisonment are essential to prevent the risk of suicide. Copyright © 2013 SEP y SEPB. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of breast cancer mortality benefit and overdiagnosis adjusted for adherence: improving information on the effects of attending screening mammography

PubMed Central

Jacklyn, Gemma; Glasziou, Paul; Macaskill, Petra; Barratt, Alexandra

2016-01-01

Background: Women require information about the impact of regularly attending screening mammography on breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis to make informed decisions. To provide this information we aimed to meta-analyse randomised controlled trials adjusted for adherence to the trial protocol. Methods: Nine screening mammography trials used in the Independent UK Breast Screening Report were selected. Extending an existing approach to adjust intention-to-treat (ITT) estimates for less than 100% adherence rates, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis. This produced a combined deattenuated prevented fraction and a combined deattenuated percentage risk of overdiagnosis. Results: In women aged 39–75 years invited to screen, the prevented fraction of breast cancer mortality at 13-year follow-up was 0.22 (95% CI 0.15–0.28) and it increased to 0.30 (95% CI 0.18–0.42) with deattenuation. In women aged 40–69 years invited to screen, the ITT percentage risk of overdiagnosis during the screening period was 19.0% (95% CI 15.2–22.7%), deattenuation increased this to 29.7% (95% CI 17.8–41.5%). Conclusions: Adjustment for nonadherence increased the size of the mortality benefit and risk of overdiagnosis by up to 50%. These estimates are more appropriate when developing quantitative information to support individual decisions about attending screening mammography. PMID:27124337

Maternal Intake of Fried Foods and Risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Osorio-Yáñez, Citlalli; Gelaye, Bizu; Qiu, Chunfang; Bao, Wei; Cardenas, Andres; Enquobahrie, Daniel A.; Williams, Michelle A.

2017-01-01

Purpose We examined the relationship of maternal periconceptional (i.e., before conception and early pregnancy) intake of fried foods with GDM risk. Methods In a prospective birth cohort in Seattle and Tacoma, Washington State, USA, we assessed maternal periconceptional fried food intake using a food frequency questionnaire among 3,414 participants. We used multivariable generalized linear regression models to derive estimates of relative risks (RRs) (and 95% confidence intervals, 95% CI) of GDM in relation to the intake of different types of fried foods (i.e., fried fish, fried chicken, fried potatoes, chips and doughnuts). Results A total of 169 GDM incident cases were identified in this cohort (4.96%). Compared with no fried fish intake, fried fish intake >1 servings/month was associated with 68% higher GDM risk [adjusted RR and 95% CI; 1.68 (1.16, 2.45); Ptrend=0.019]. After adjusting for confounders, the RRs (95% CI) of GDM relative to fried chicken intake were 1.0, 1.44 (0.98, 2.09) and 1.81 (1.22, 2.70) for none, ≤1 and >1 servings/month intake of fried chicken, respectively (Ptrend=0.002). Dietary intake of fried potatoes, snack chips or doughnuts was not significantly associated with higher GDM risk. Limitations of our study include the lack of information about frying methods and the intake of fried foods at home and away from home. Conclusions Regular intake of fried fish and fried chicken are associated with elevated GDM risk. PMID:28641758

Development and Validation of an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Indicator for Mortality After Congenital Heart Surgery Harmonized With Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) Methodology.

PubMed

Jenkins, Kathy J; Koch Kupiec, Jennifer; Owens, Pamela L; Romano, Patrick S; Geppert, Jeffrey J; Gauvreau, Kimberlee

2016-05-20

The National Quality Forum previously approved a quality indicator for mortality after congenital heart surgery developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). Several parameters of the validated Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method were included, but others differed. As part of the National Quality Forum endorsement maintenance process, developers were asked to harmonize the 2 methodologies. Parameters that were identical between the 2 methods were retained. AHRQ's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID) 2008 were used to select optimal parameters where differences existed, with a goal to maximize model performance and face validity. Inclusion criteria were not changed and included all discharges for patients <18 years with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification procedure codes for congenital heart surgery or nonspecific heart surgery combined with congenital heart disease diagnosis codes. The final model includes procedure risk group, age (0-28 days, 29-90 days, 91-364 days, 1-17 years), low birth weight (500-2499 g), other congenital anomalies (Clinical Classifications Software 217, except for 758.xx), multiple procedures, and transfer-in status. Among 17 945 eligible cases in the SID 2008, the c statistic for model performance was 0.82. In the SID 2013 validation data set, the c statistic was 0.82. Risk-adjusted mortality rates by center ranged from 0.9% to 4.1% (5th-95th percentile). Congenital heart surgery programs can now obtain national benchmarking reports by applying AHRQ Quality Indicator software to hospital administrative data, based on the harmonized RACHS-1 method, with high discrimination and face validity. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

The Relationship Between Metabolic Risk Factors and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Europeans, South Asians, and African Caribbeans

PubMed Central

Tillin, Therese; Hughes, Alun D.; Mayet, Jamil; Whincup, Peter; Sattar, Naveed; Forouhi, Nita G.; McKeigue, Paul M.; Chaturvedi, Nish

2013-01-01

Objectives This study sought to determine whether ethnic differences in diabetes, dyslipidemia, and ectopic fat deposition account for ethnic differences in incident cardiovascular disease. Background Coronary heart disease risks are elevated in South Asians and are lower in African Caribbeans compared with Europeans. These ethnic differences map to lipid patterns and ectopic fat deposition. Methods Cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in 2,049 Europeans, 1,517 South Asians, and 630 African Caribbeans from 1988 through 1991 (mean age: 52.4 ± 6.9 years). Fatal and nonfatal events were captured over a median 20.5-year follow-up. Subhazard ratios (SHR) were calculated using competing risks regression. Results Baseline diabetes prevalence was more than 3 times greater in South Asians and African Caribbeans than in Europeans. South Asians were more and African Caribbeans were less centrally obese and dyslipidemic than Europeans. Compared with Europeans, coronary heart disease incidence was greater in South Asians and less in African Caribbeans. The age- and sex-adjusted South Asian versus European SHR was 1.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.52 to 1.91, p < 0.001) and remained significant (1.45, 95% CI: 1.28 to 1.64, p < 0.001) when adjusted for waist-to-hip ratio. The African Caribbean versus European age- and sex-adjusted SHR of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.52 to 0.79, p < 0.001) remained significant when adjusted for high-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.74, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.92, p = 0.008). Compared with Europeans, South Asians and African Caribbeans experienced more strokes (age- and sex-adjusted SHR: 1.45 [95% CI: 1.17 to 1.80, p = 0.001] and 1.50 [95% CI: 1.13 to 2.00, p = 0.005], respectively), and this differential was more marked in those with diabetes (age-adjusted SHR: 1.97 [95% CI: 1.16 to 3.35, p = 0.038 for interaction] and 2.21 [95% CI: 1.14 to 4.30, p = 0.019 for interaction]). Conclusions Ethnic differences in measured metabolic risk factors did not explain differences in coronary heart disease incidence. The apparently greater association between diabetes and stroke risk in South Asians and African Caribbeans compared with Europeans merits further study. PMID:23500273

Adjustment of Children Born to Teenage Mothers: The Contribution of Risk and Protective Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Luster, Tom

1990-01-01

Examined contribution of risk and protective factors in adjustment of 721 children, age 8-15, born to teenage mothers. Results showed that exposure to increasing number of risk factors (poverty, urban residence, mother's self-esteem) was associated with greater vulnerability to adjustment problems, while protective factors (intelligence,…

45 CFR 153.630 - Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Data validation requirements when HHS operates... Program § 153.630 Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment. (a) General requirement... performed on its risk adjustment data as described in this section. (b) Initial validation audit. (1) An...

45 CFR 153.630 - Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Data validation requirements when HHS operates... Program § 153.630 Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment. (a) General requirement... performed on its risk adjustment data as described in this section. (b) Initial validation audit. (1) An...

42 CFR 422.308 - Adjustments to capitation rates, benchmarks, bids, and payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... equivalence. CMS may add to, modify, or substitute for risk adjustment factors if those changes will improve... adjust for health status, CMS applies a risk factor based on data obtained in accordance with § 422.310. (ii) Implementation. CMS applies a risk factor that incorporates inpatient hospital and ambulatory...

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk adjustment data validation standards. 153.350... validation standards. (a) General requirement. The State, or HHS on behalf of the State, must ensure proper implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of...

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk adjustment data validation standards. 153.350... validation standards. (a) General requirement. The State, or HHS on behalf of the State, must ensure proper implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of...

In-Country Migration and Risk Factors for HIV Acquisition among Pregnant Women in Tijuana, Mexico

PubMed Central

Viani, Rolando M.; Araneta, Maria R.; Spector, Stephen A.

2016-01-01

Objective To compare HIV prevalence and HIV acquisition risk behaviors between pregnant women residents and migrants. Design A cross-sectional study of pregnant women of unknown HIV status seeking care at Tijuana General Hospital, Mexico. Methods Pregnant women attending the labor and delivery unit or the prenatal clinic had a rapid HIV test drawn, with positive results confirmed by Western blot. Migrants were defined as women who had resided in Tijuana for less than 5 years. Results Between 2007 and 2008, a total of 3331 pregnant women consented to participate. The HIV seroprevalence did not differ between Tijuana residents (18 of 2502, 0.72%) and migrants (3 of 829, 0.36%, P = .32). In multivariate regression analyses, HIV acquisition risk behaviors included methamphetamine use (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 6.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3–15.8, P < .001) and first presentation at labor (adjusted OR: 5.0, 95% CI: 1.6–15.3, P = .005), adjusted for migrant status, age, and history of sexually transmitted infections. Conclusion The overall HIV seroprevalence was 0.63% and did not differ between Tijuana residents and migrants. PMID:24935694

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Risk of Binge Drinking and Drunkenness in Middle-Aged Finnish Men

PubMed Central

Kauhanen, Laura; Leino, Janne; Lakka, Hanna-Maaria; Lynch, John W.; Kauhanen, Jussi

2011-01-01

Objective. The purpose of this study was to investigate associations between adverse childhood experiences and binge drinking and drunkenness in adulthood using both historical and recalled data from childhood. Methods. Data on childhood adverse experiences were collected from school health records and questionnaires completed in adulthood. Adulthood data were obtained from the baseline examinations of the male participants (n = 2682) in the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study (KIHD) in 1984–1989 from eastern Finland. School health records from the 1930s to 1950s were available for a subsample of KIHD men (n = 952). Results. According to the school health records, men who had adverse childhood experiences had a 1.51-fold (95% CI 1.05 to 2.18) age- and examination-year adjusted odds of binge drinking in adulthood. After adjustment for socioeconomic position in adulthood or behavioural factors in adulthood, the association remained unchanged. Adjustment for socioeconomic position in childhood attenuated these effects. Also the recalled data showed associations with adverse childhood experiences and binge drinking with different beverages. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that childhood adversities are associated with increased risk of binge drinking in adulthood. PMID:22111009

Risk factors for reintervention after surgery for perforated gastroduodenal ulcer.

PubMed

Hasselager, R B; Lohse, N; Duch, P; Møller, M H

2016-11-01

Perforated gastroduodenal ulcer carries a high mortality rate. Need for reintervention after surgical repair is associated with worse outcome, but knowledge on risk factors for reintervention is limited. The aim was to identify prognostic risk factors for reintervention after perforated gastroduodenal ulcer in a nationwide cohort. All patients treated surgically for perforated gastroduodenal ulcer in Denmark between 2003 and 2014 were included using data from the Danish Clinical Register of Emergency Surgery. Potential risk factors for reintervention were assessed, and their crude and adjusted associations calculated by the competing risks subdistribution hazards approach. A total of 4086 patients underwent surgery for perforated gastroduodenal ulcer during the study interval. Median age was 71·1 (i.q.r. 59·6-81·0) years and the overall 90-day mortality rate was 30·8 per cent (1258 of 4086). Independent risk factors for reintervention were: male sex (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1·46, 95 per cent c.i. 1·20 to 1·78), in-hospital perforation (adjusted HR 1·36, 1·11 to 1·68), high BMI (adjusted HR 1·49, 1·10 to 2·01), high ASA physical status grade (adjusted HR 1·54, 1·23 to 1·94), shock on admission (adjusted HR 1·40, 1·13 to 1·74), surgical delay (adjusted HR 1·07, 1·02 to 1·14) and other co-morbidity (adjusted HR 1·24, 1·02 to 1·51). Preadmission use of steroids (adjusted HR 0·59, 0·41 to 0·84) and age above 70 years (adjusted HR 0·72, 0·59 to 0·89) were associated with a reduced risk of reoperation. Obese men with coexisting diseases and high disease severity who have surgery for gastroduodenal perforation are at increased risk of reoperation. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association between angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use prior to major elective surgery and the risk of acute dialysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Some studies but not others suggest angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) use prior to major surgery associates with a higher risk of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) and death. Methods We conducted a large population-based retrospective cohort study of patients aged 66 years or older who received major elective surgery in 118 hospitals in Ontario, Canada from 1995 to 2010 (n = 237,208). We grouped the cohort into ACEi/ARB users (n = 101,494) and non-users (n = 135,714) according to whether the patient filled at least one prescription for an ACEi or ARB (or not) in the 120 days prior to surgery. Our study outcomes were acute kidney injury treated with dialysis (AKI-D) within 14 days of surgery and all-cause mortality within 90 days of surgery. Results After adjusting for potential confounders, preoperative ACEi/ARB use versus non-use was associated with 17% lower risk of post-operative AKI-D (adjusted relative risk (RR): 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71 to 0.98) and 9% lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted RR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.95). Propensity score matched analyses provided similar results. The association between ACEi/ARB and AKI-D was significantly modified by the presence of preoperative chronic kidney disease (CKD) (P value for interaction < 0.001) with the observed association evident only in patients with CKD (CKD - adjusted RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.78 versus No CKD: adjusted RR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.81 to 1.24). Conclusions In this cohort study, preoperative ACEi/ARB use versus non-use was associated with a lower risk of AKI-D, and the association was primarily evident in patients with CKD. Large, multi-centre randomized trials are needed to inform optimal ACEi/ARB use in the peri-operative setting. PMID:24694072

The effect of past antibiotic exposure on diabetes risk

PubMed Central

Boursi, Ben; Mamtani, Ronac; Haynes, Kevin; Yang, Yu-Xiao

2015-01-01

Objective Gut microbiota influence metabolic pathways relevant to the pathogenesis of obesity, insulin-resistance and diabetes. Antibiotic therapy can alter the microbiota and is commonly used in western countries. We sought to evaluate whether past antibiotic exposure increases diabetes risk. Research design and methods We conducted a nested case-control study using a large population-based database from the United Kingdom (UK). Cases were defined as those with incident diagnosis of diabetes. For every case, 4 eligible controls matched on age, sex, practice-site, and duration of follow-up before index-date were selected using incidence-density sampling. Exposure of interest was antibiotic therapy >1 year before index-date. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression. The risk was adjusted for body mass index (BMI), smoking, last glucose level and number of infections before index-date, as well as past medical history of coronary artery disease and hyperlipidemia. Results The study included 208,002 diabetic cases and 815,576 matched controls. Exposure to a single antibiotic prescription was not associated with higher adjusted diabetes risk. Treatment with 2–5 antibiotic courses was associated with increase in diabetic risk for penicillin, cephalosporins, macrolides and quinolones with adjusted OR ranging from 1.08 (95%CI 1.05–1.11) for penicillin to 1.15 (95%CI 1.08–1.23) for quinolones. The risk increased with the number of antibiotic courses and reached 1.37 (95%CI 1.19–1.58) for >5 courses of quinolones. There was no association between exposure to anti-virals and anti-fungals and diabetes risk. Conclusions Exposure to certain antibiotic groups increases diabetes risk. PMID:25805893

Risk of Suicidal Events With Atomoxetine Compared to Stimulant Treatment: A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Bussing, Regina; Kubilis, Paul; Gerhard, Tobias; Segal, Richard; Shuster, Jonathan J; Winterstein, Almut G

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Antidepressant effects on increased suicidality in children have raised public concern in recent years. Approved in 2002 for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder treatment, the selective noradrenalin-reuptake-inhibitor atomoxetine was initially investigated for the treatment of depression. In post-hoc analyses of clinical trial data, atomoxetine has been associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation in children and adolescents. We analyzed whether the observed increased risk of suicidal ideation in clinical trials translates into an increased risk of suicidal events in pediatric patients treated with atomoxetine compared with stimulants in 26 Medicaid programs. METHODS: Employing a retrospective cohort design, we used propensity score–adjusted Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the risk of suicide and suicide attempt in pediatric patients initiating treatment with atomoxetine compared with stimulants from 2002 to 2006. RESULTS: The first-line treatment cohort included 279 315 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for current atomoxetine use compared with current stimulant use was 0.95 (95% CI 0.47–1.92, P = .88). The second-line treatment cohort included 220 215 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for current atomoxetine use compared with current stimulant use was 0.71 (95% CI 0.30–1.67, P = .43). CONCLUSIONS: First- and second-line treatment of youths age 5 to 18 with atomoxetine compared with stimulants was not significantly associated with an increased risk of suicidal events. The low incidence of suicide and suicide attempt resulted in wide confidence intervals and did not allow stratified analysis of high-risk groups or assessment of suicidal risk associated with long-term use of atomoxetine. PMID:27244795

First Infant Formula Type and Risk of Islet Autoimmunity in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) Study

PubMed Central

Beyerlein, Andreas; Tamura, Roy; Uusitalo, Ulla; Andrén Aronsson, Carin; Yang, Jimin; Riikonen, Anne; Lernmark, Åke; Rewers, Marian J.; Hagopian, William A.; She, Jin-Xiong; Simell, Olli G.; Toppari, Jorma; Ziegler, Anette-G.; Akolkar, Beena; Krischer, Jeffrey P.; Virtanen, Suvi M.; Norris, Jill M.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE Studies on the introduction of infant formulas and its effect on the risk of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes (T1D) have yielded inconsistent results. We investigated whether the introduction of formula based on hydrolyzed cow’s milk as the first formula is associated with reduced islet autoimmunity risk in a large prospective cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study prospectively monitors 8,676 children at increased genetic risk for T1D. Autoantibodies to insulin, GAD65, and IA2 were measured regularly to define islet autoimmunity. Information on formula feeding was collected by questionnaires at 3 months of age. RESULTS In survival analyses, after adjustment for family history with T1D, HLA genotype, sex, country, delivery mode, breast-feeding ≥3 months, and seasonality of birth, we observed no significant association with islet autoimmunity in infants who received extensively hydrolyzed compared with nonhydrolyzed cow’s milk–based formula as the first formula during the first 3 months (adjusted hazard ratio 1.38 [95% CI 0.95; 2.01]), and a significantly increased risk for extensively hydrolyzed formula introduced during the first 7 days (adjusted hazard ratio 1.57 [1.04; 2.38]). Using a partially hydrolyzed or other formula as the first formula, or no formula, was not associated with islet autoimmunity risk. CONCLUSIONS These results add to the existing evidence that islet autoimmunity risk is not reduced, and may be increased, by using hydrolyzed compared with nonhydrolyzed cow’s milk–based infant formula as the first formula in infants at increased genetic risk for T1D. PMID:28096222

Association of stressful life events with incident falls and fractures in older men: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

PubMed Central

Fink, Howard A.; Kuskowski, Michael A.; Marshall, Lynn M.

2014-01-01

Background: small, retrospective studies suggest that major life events and/or sudden emotional stress may increase fall and fracture risk. The current study examines these associations prospectively. Methods: a total of 5,152 men aged ≥65 years in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study self-reported data on stressful life events for 1 year prior to study Visit 2. Incident falls and fractures were ascertained for 1 year after Visit 2. Fractures were centrally confirmed. Results: a total of 2,932 (56.9%) men reported ≥1 type of stressful life event. In men with complete stressful life event, fall and covariate data (n = 3,949), any stressful life event was associated with a 33% increased risk of incident fall [relative risk (RR) 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19–1.49] and 68% increased risk of multiple falls (RR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.40–2.01) in the year following Visit 2 after adjustment for age, education, Parkinson's disease, diabetes, stroke, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) impairment, chair stand time, walk speed, multiple past falls, depressive symptoms and antidepressant use. Risk increased with the number of types of stressful life events. Though any stressful life event was associated with a 58% increased age-adjusted risk for incident fracture, this association was attenuated and no longer statistically significant after additional adjustment for total hip bone mineral density, fracture after age 50, Parkinson's disease, stroke and IADL impairment. Conclusions: in this cohort of older men, stressful life events significantly increased risk of incident falls independent of other explanatory variables, but did not independently increase incident fracture risk. PMID:24002237

Cost-effectiveness of a motivational intervention for alcohol-involved youth in a hospital emergency department.

PubMed

Neighbors, Charles J; Barnett, Nancy P; Rohsenow, Damaris J; Colby, Suzanne M; Monti, Peter M

2010-05-01

Brief interventions in the emergency department targeting risk-taking youth show promise to reduce alcohol-related injury. This study models the cost-effectiveness of a motivational interviewing-based intervention relative to brief advice to stop alcohol-related risk behaviors (standard care). Average cost-effectiveness ratios were compared between conditions. In addition, a cost-utility analysis examined the incremental cost of motivational interviewing per quality-adjusted life year gained. Microcosting methods were used to estimate marginal costs of motivational interviewing and standard care as well as two methods of patient screening: standard emergency-department staff questioning and proactive outreach by counseling staff. Average cost-effectiveness ratios were computed for drinking and driving, injuries, vehicular citations, and negative social consequences. Using estimates of the marginal effect of motivational interviewing in reducing drinking and driving, estimates of traffic fatality risk from drinking-and-driving youth, and national life tables, the societal costs per quality-adjusted life year saved by motivational interviewing relative to standard care were also estimated. Alcohol-attributable traffic fatality risks were estimated using national databases. Intervention costs per participant were $81 for standard care, $170 for motivational interviewing with standard screening, and $173 for motivational interviewing with proactive screening. The cost-effectiveness ratios for motivational interviewing were more favorable than standard care across all study outcomes and better for men than women. The societal cost per quality-adjusted life year of motivational interviewing was $8,795. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were robust in terms of variability in parameter estimates. This brief intervention represents a good societal investment compared with other commonly adopted medical interventions.

Socioeconomic Status As a Risk Factor for Unintended Pregnancy in the Contraceptive CHOICE Project.

PubMed

Iseyemi, Abigail; Zhao, Qiuhong; McNicholas, Colleen; Peipert, Jeffrey F

2017-09-01

To evaluate the association of low socioeconomic status as an independent risk factor for unintended pregnancy. We performed a secondary analysis of data from the Contraceptive CHOICE project. Between 2007 and 2011, 9,256 participants were recruited and followed for up to 3 years. The primary outcome of interest was unintended pregnancy; the primary exposure variable was low socioeconomic status, defined as self-report of either receiving public assistance or having difficulty paying for basic necessities. Four contraceptive groups were evaluated: 1) long-acting reversible contraceptive method (hormonal or copper intrauterine device or subdermal implant); 2) depot medroxyprogesterone acetate injection; 3) oral contraceptive pills, a transdermal patch, or a vaginal ring; or 4) other or no method. Confounders were adjusted for in the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the effect of socioeconomic status on risk of unintended pregnancy. Participants with low socioeconomic status experienced 515 unintended pregnancies during 14,001 women-years of follow-up (3.68/100 women-years; 95% CI 3.37-4.01) compared with 200 unintended pregnancies during 10,296 women-years (1.94/100 women-years; 95% CI 1.68-2.23) among participants without low socioeconomic status. Women with low socioeconomic status were more likely to have an unintended pregnancy (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.2). After adjusting for age, education level, insurance status, and history of unintended pregnancy, low socioeconomic status was associated with an increased risk of unintended pregnancy (adjusted HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7). Despite the removal of cost barriers, low socioeconomic status is associated with a higher incidence of unintended pregnancy.

Risk adjusting community rated health plan premiums: a survey of risk assessment literature and policy applications.

PubMed

Giacomini, M; Luft, H S; Robinson, J C

1995-01-01

This paper surveys recent health care reform debates and empirical evidence regarding the potential role for risk adjusters in addressing the problem of competitive risk segmentation under capitated financing. We discuss features of health plan markets affecting risk selection, methodological considerations in measuring it, and alternative approaches to financial correction for risk differentials. The appropriate approach to assessing risk differences between health plans depends upon the nature of market risk selection allowed under a given reform scenario. Because per capita costs depend on a health plan's population risk, efficiency, and quality of service, risk adjustment will most strongly promote efficiency in environments with commensurately strong incentives for quality care.

Quantifying Geographic Variation in Health Care Outcomes in the United States before and after Risk-Adjustment.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Barry L; Kellar, Joshua A; Labno, Anna; Matheson, David H M; Ringel, Michael; VonAchen, Paige; Lesser, Richard I; Li, Yue; Dimick, Justin B; Gawande, Atul A; Larsson, Stefan H; Moses, Hamilton

2016-01-01

Despite numerous studies of geographic variation in healthcare cost and utilization at the local, regional, and state levels across the U.S., a comprehensive characterization of geographic variation in outcomes has not been published. Our objective was to quantify variation in US health outcomes in an all-payer population before and after risk-adjustment. We used information from 16 independent data sources, including 22 million all-payer inpatient admissions from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (which covers regions where 50% of the U.S. population lives) to analyze 24 inpatient mortality, inpatient safety, and prevention outcomes. We compared outcome variation at state, hospital referral region, hospital service area, county, and hospital levels. Risk-adjusted outcomes were calculated after adjusting for population factors, co-morbidities, and health system factors. Even after risk-adjustment, there exists large geographical variation in outcomes. The variation in healthcare outcomes exceeds the well publicized variation in US healthcare costs. On average, we observed a 2.1-fold difference in risk-adjusted mortality outcomes between top- and bottom-decile hospitals. For example, we observed a 2.3-fold difference for risk-adjusted acute myocardial infarction inpatient mortality. On average a 10.2-fold difference in risk-adjusted patient safety outcomes exists between top and bottom-decile hospitals, including an 18.3-fold difference for risk-adjusted Central Venous Catheter Bloodstream Infection rates. A 3.0-fold difference in prevention outcomes exists between top- and bottom-decile counties on average; including a 2.2-fold difference for risk-adjusted congestive heart failure admission rates. The population, co-morbidity, and health system factors accounted for a range of R2 between 18-64% of variability in mortality outcomes, 3-39% of variability in patient safety outcomes, and 22-70% of variability in prevention outcomes. The amount of variability in health outcomes in the U.S. is large even after accounting for differences in population, co-morbidities, and health system factors. These findings suggest that: 1) additional examination of regional and local variation in risk-adjusted outcomes should be a priority; 2) assumptions of uniform hospital quality that underpin rationale for policy choices (such as narrow insurance networks or antitrust enforcement) should be challenged; and 3) there exists substantial opportunity for outcomes improvement in the US healthcare system.

The SLUScore: A Novel Method for Detecting Hazardous Hypotension in Adult Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgical Procedures

PubMed Central

Yuan, Hui; Dryden, Jefferson K.; Strehl, Kristen E.; Cywinski, Jacek B.; Ehrenfeld, Jesse M.; Bromley, Pamela

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that longer-term postsurgical outcome may be adversely affected by less than severe hypotension under anesthesia. However, evidence-based guidelines are unavailable. The present study was designed to develop a method for identifying patients at increased risk of death within 30 days in association with the severity and duration of intraoperative hypotension. METHODS: Intraoperative mean arterial blood pressure recordings of 152,445 adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery were analyzed for periods of time accumulated below each one of the 31 thresholds between 75 and 45 mm Hg (hypotensive exposure times). In a development cohort of 35,904 patients, the associations were sought between each of these 31 cumulative hypotensive exposure times and 30-day postsurgical mortality. On the basis of covariable-adjusted percentage increases in the odds of mortality per minute elapsed of hypotensive exposure time, certain sets of exposure time limits were calculated that portended certain percentage increases in the odds of mortality. A novel risk-scoring method was conceived by counting the number of exposure time limits that had been exceeded within each respective set, one of them being called the SLUScore. The validity of this new method in identifying patients at increased risk was tested in a multicenter validation cohort consisting of 116,541 patients from Cleveland Clinic, Vanderbilt and Saint Louis Universities. Data were expressed as 95% confidence interval, P < .05 considered significant. RESULTS: Progressively greater hypotensive exposures were associated with greater 30-day mortality. In the development cohort, covariable-adjusted (age, Charlson score, case duration, history of hypertension) exposure limits were identified for time accumulated below each of the thresholds that portended certain identical (5%–50%) percentage expected increases in the odds of mortality. These exposure time limit sets were shorter in patients with a history of hypertension. A novel risk score, the SLUScore (range 0–31), was conceived as the number of exposure limits exceeded for one of these sets (20% set). A SLUScore > 0 (average 13.8) was found in 40% of patients who had twice the mortality, adjusted odds increasing by 5% per limit exceeded. When tested in the validation cohort, a SLUScore > 0 (average 14.1) identified 35% of patients who had twice the mortality, each incremental limit exceeded portending a 5% compounding increase in adjusted odds of mortality, independent of age and Charlson score (C = 0.73, 0.72–0.74, P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The SLUScore represents a novel method for identifying nearly 1 in every 3 patients experiencing greater 30-day mortality portended by more severe intraoperative hypotensive exposures. PMID:28107274

Comorbidities of COPD Have a Major Impact on Clinical Outcomes, Particularly in African Americans

PubMed Central

Putcha, Nirupama; Han, Meilan K.; Martinez, Carlos H.; Foreman, Marilyn G.; Anzueto, Antonio R.; Casaburi, Richard; Cho, Michael H.; Hanania, Nicola A.; Hersh, Craig P.; Kinney, Gregory L.; Make, Barry J.; Steiner, Robert M.; Lutz, Sharon M.; Thomashow, Byron M.; Williams, Andre A.; Bhatt, Surya P.; Beaty, Terri H.; Bowler, Russell P.; Ramsdell, Joe W.; Curtis, Jeffrey L.; Everett, Douglas; Hokanson, John E.; Lynch, David A.; Sutherland, E. Rand; Silverman, Edwin K.; Crapo, James D.; Wise, Robert A.; Regan, Elizabeth A.; Hansel, Nadia N.

2014-01-01

Background: COPD patients have a great burden of comorbidity. However, it is not well established whether this is due to shared risk factors such as smoking, if the comorbidities impact patients’ exercise capacity and quality of life, or whether there are racial disparities in their impact on COPD. Methods: We analyzed data from 10,192 current and ex-smokers with (cases) and without COPD (controls) from the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene®) study cohort to establish risk for COPD comorbidities adjusted for pertinent covariates. In adjusted models, we examined comorbidity prevalence and impact in African-Americans (AA) and non-Hispanic whites (NHW). Results: Comorbidities are more common in individuals with COPD compared to those with normal spirometry (controls), and the risk persists after adjustments for covariates including pack-years smoked. After adjustment for confounders, 8 conditions were independently associated with worse exercise capacity, quality of life and dyspnea. There were racial disparities in the impact of comorbidities on exercise capacity, dyspnea and quality of life, with the presence of osteoarthritis and gastroesophageal reflux disease having a greater negative impact on all three outcomes in AAs than NHWs (p<0.05 for all interaction terms). Conclusions: Individuals with COPD have a higher risk for comorbidities than controls, an important finding shown for the first time comprehensively after accounting for confounders. Individual comorbidities are associated with worse exercise capacity, quality of life, and dyspnea, in AAs compared with NHWs. Note: The abstract of a previous version of this work was presented at the American Thoracic Society Conference in Philadelphia, PA on May 21, 2013. PMID:25695106

A Matter of Classes: Stratifying Health Care Populations to Produce Better Estimates of Inpatient Costs

PubMed Central

Rein, David B

2005-01-01

Objective To stratify traditional risk-adjustment models by health severity classes in a way that is empirically based, is accessible to policy makers, and improves predictions of inpatient costs. Data Sources Secondary data created from the administrative claims from all 829,356 children aged 21 years and under enrolled in Georgia Medicaid in 1999. Study Design A finite mixture model was used to assign child Medicaid patients to health severity classes. These class assignments were then used to stratify both portions of a traditional two-part risk-adjustment model predicting inpatient Medicaid expenditures. Traditional model results were compared with the stratified model using actuarial statistics. Principal Findings The finite mixture model identified four classes of children: a majority healthy class and three illness classes with increasing levels of severity. Stratifying the traditional two-part risk-adjustment model by health severity classes improved its R2 from 0.17 to 0.25. The majority of additional predictive power resulted from stratifying the second part of the two-part model. Further, the preference for the stratified model was unaffected by months of patient enrollment time. Conclusions Stratifying health care populations based on measures of health severity is a powerful method to achieve more accurate cost predictions. Insurers who ignore the predictive advances of sample stratification in setting risk-adjusted premiums may create strong financial incentives for adverse selection. Finite mixture models provide an empirically based, replicable methodology for stratification that should be accessible to most health care financial managers. PMID:16033501

Exposure to traffic noise and air pollution and risk for febrile seizure: a cohort study.

PubMed

Hjortebjerg, Dorrit; Nybo Andersen, Anne-Marie; Ketzel, Matthias; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Sørensen, Mette

2018-03-25

Objectives Exposure to traffic noise and air pollution is suspected to increase susceptibility to viral infections - the main triggering factor for febrile seizures. No studies have examined these two exposures in relation to febrile seizures. We aimed to investigate whether exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution are associated with risk of febrile seizures in childhood. Methods From our study base of 51 465 singletons from a national birth cohort, we identified 2175 cases with febrile seizures using a nationwide registry. Residential address history from conception to six years of age were found in national registers, and road traffic noise (L den ) and air pollution (NO 2 ) were modeled for all addresses. Analyses were done using Cox proportional hazard model with adjustment for potential confounders, including mutual exposure adjustment. Results An interquartile range (IQR) increase in childhood exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution was associated with an 11% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.19) and 5% (IRR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.07) higher risk for febrile seizures, respectively, after adjustment for potential confounders. Weaker tendencies were seen for pregnancy exposure. In models with mutual exposure adjustment, the estimates were slightly lower, with IRR of 1.08 (95% CI 1.00-1.16) and 1.03 (95% CI 0.99-1.06) per IQR increase in childhood exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution, respectively. Conclusions This study suggests that residential exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution is associated with higher risk for febrile seizures.

42 CFR 423.336 - Risk-sharing arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... payments to a Part D sponsor subject to risk—(1) Adjusted allowable risk corridor costs. For purposes of this paragraph, the term adjusted allowable risk corridor costs means— (i) The allowable risk corridor... coverage year. (2) Establishment of risk corridors. (i) Risk corridors. For each year, CMS establishes a...

[Remuneration distribution - should morbidity-dependent overall remuneration also be distributed after adjustments for morbidity?].

PubMed

Walendzik, A; Trottmann, M; Leonhardt, R; Wasem, J

2013-04-01

In the 2009 reform of the German collective remuneration system for outpatient medical care, on the level of overall remuneration, the morbidity risk was transferred to the health funds fulfilling a long-term demand of physicians. Nevertheless not transferring morbidity adjustment to the levels of physician groups and singular practices can lead to budgets not related to patient needs and to incentives for risk selection for individual doctors. The systematics of the distribution of overall remuneration in the German remuneration system for outpatient care are analysed focusing on the aspect of morbidity adjustment. Using diagnostic and pharmaceutical information of about half a million insured subjects, a risk adjustment model able to predict individual expenditures for outpatient care for different provider groups is presented. This model enables to additively split the individual care burden into several parts attributed to different physician groups. Conditions for the use of the model in the distribution of overall remuneration between physician groups are developed. A simulation of the use of diagnoses-based risk adjustment in standard service volumes then highlights the conditions for a successfull installation of standard service volumes representing a higher degree of risk adjustment. The presented estimation model is generally applicable for the distribution of overall remuneration to different physician groups. The simulation of standard service volumes using diagnosis-based risk adjustment does not provide a more accurate prediction of the expenditures on the level of physician practices than the age-related calculation currently used in the German remuneration system for outpatient medical care. Using elements of morbidity-based risk adjustment the current German collective system for outpatient medical care could be transformed towards a higher degree of distributional justice concerning medical care for patients and more appropriate incentives avoiding risk selection. Limitations of the applicability of risk-adjustment can be especially pointed out when a high share of lump-sum-payments is used for the remuneration of some physician groups. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15May2012 - 31Aug2016 Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment...deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison groups of civilain single parent families (N=200) and civilian dual parent

Behavioral Adjustment Moderates the Link Between Neuroticism and Biological Health Risk: A U.S.-Japan Comparison Study.

PubMed

Kitayama, Shinobu; Park, Jiyoung; Miyamoto, Yuri; Date, Heiwa; Boylan, Jennifer Morozink; Markus, Hazel R; Karasawa, Mayumi; Kawakami, Norito; Coe, Christopher L; Love, Gayle D; Ryff, Carol D

2018-06-01

Neuroticism, a broad personality trait linked to negative emotions, is consistently linked to ill health when self-report is used to assess health. However, when health risk is assessed with biomarkers, the evidence is inconsistent. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the association between neuroticism and biological health risk is moderated by behavioral adjustment, a propensity to flexibly adjust behaviors to environmental contingencies. Using a U.S.-Japan cross-cultural survey, we found that neuroticism was linked to lower biological health risk for those who are high, but not low, in behavioral adjustment. Importantly, Japanese were higher in behavioral adjustment than European Americans, and as predicted by this cultural difference, neuroticism was linked to lower biological health risk for Japanese but not for European Americans. Finally, consistent with prior evidence, neuroticism was associated with worse self-reported health regardless of behavioral adjustment or culture. Discussion focused on the significance of identifying sociocultural correlates of biological health.

A Missed Opportunity for U.S. Perinatal Human Immunodeficiency Virus Elimination

PubMed Central

Fruhauf, Timothee; Coleman, Jenell S.

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To estimate the proportion of women at increased risk of sexual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition during pregnancy in a high HIV incidence urban setting to identify those who may be eligible for pre-exposure prophylaxis. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of women who received prenatal care at a large academic center in 2012. Univariable analyses and multiple logistic regression models were built to identify correlates for pre-exposure prophylaxis eligibility. RESULTS Among 1,637 pregnant women, mean age was 27.6 years (SD 6.3), 59.7% were African American, and 56.0% were single. Based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidelines, more than 10% of women were at increased risk for HIV acquisition during pregnancy and eligible for pre-exposure prophylaxis. Younger [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.9/1-year increase, 95% CI 0.8–0.9], single (adjusted OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2–4.8), African American women (adjusted OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.6–6.7) with higher parity (adjusted OR 1.3/one-child increase, 95% CI 1.1–1.5), and who smoked regularly during pregnancy (adjusted OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0–3.0) had greater odds of being eligible for pre-exposure prophylaxis at any time during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS Pregnancy is a vulnerable period during which some heterosexual women in urban settings have a high risk for HIV acquisition and stand to benefit from pre-exposure prophylaxis. PMID:28885420

Mortality characteristics of aortic root surgery in North America†

PubMed Central

Caceres, Manuel; Ma, Yicheng; Rankin, J. Scott; Saha-Chaudhuri, Paramita; Englum, Brian R.; Gammie, James S.; Suri, Rakesh M.; Thourani, Vinod H.; Esmailian, Fardad; Czer, Lawrence S.; Puskas, John D.; Svensson, Lars G.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES Aortic root surgery is transitioning to aortic valve sparing (AVS), but little is known about the relative early outcomes of AVS versus composite graft-valve replacement (CVR). This study assessed mortality differences for AVS versus CVR to guide future practice decisions. METHODS From January 2000 to June 2011, 31 747 patients had aortic root replacement with AVS (n = 3585; 11%) or CVR (n = 28 162; 89%). The cohort of Overall patients was divided into two subgroups: high-risk patients (n = 20 356; 6% AVS) having age >75 years, endocarditis, aortic stenosis, dialysis, multiple valves, reoperation or emergency/salvage status, and the remaining low-risk patients (n = 11 388; 21% AVS). Using logistic regression analysis, outcomes were presented as unadjusted operative mortality (UOM), risk-adjusted operative mortality (AOM) and adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for mortality. RESULTS Baseline characteristics for the Overall group (AVS versus CVR) were: mean age (52 vs 57 years), endocarditis (1 vs 11%), aortic stenosis (4 vs 36%), dialysis (1 vs 2%), multiple valves (7 vs 10%), reoperation (6 vs 17%) and emergency status (14 vs 12%) (all P < 0.0001). In high- and low-risk groups, baseline differences narrowed, and lower mortality was generally observed with AVS: (AVS versus CVR) UOM group Overall (4.5 vs 8.9%)*, group High-risk (10.5 vs 11.7%), group Low-risk (1.4 vs 3.1%)*; AOM group Overall (6.2 vs 8.6%), group High-risk (10.1 vs 11.7%), group Low-risk (2.2 vs 2.8%); AOR group Overall (0.59)*, group High-risk (0.62)*, group Low-risk (0.69). *P < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS Relative risk-adjusted mortality seemed comparable with AVS versus CVR in low- and high-risk subgroups. These data support judicious expansion of aortic valve repair in patients having aortic root replacement. PMID:24639452

Using chronic disease risk factors to adjust Medicare capitation payments

PubMed Central

Schauffler, Helen Halpin; Howland, Jonathan; Cobb, Janet

1992-01-01

This study evaluates the use of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters for Medicare's capitation formula, the average adjusted per capita costs (AAPCC). Risk factor data for the surviving members of the Framingham Study cohort who were examined in 1982-83 were merged with 100 percent Medicare payment data for 1984 and 1985, matching on Social Security number and sex. Seven different AAPCC models were estimated to assess the independent contributions of risk factors and measures of prior utilization and disability in increasing the explanatory power of AAPCC. The findings suggest that inclusion of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters can improve substantially the predictive accuracy of AAPCC. PMID:10124441

Multivariable confounding adjustment in distributed data networks without sharing of patient-level data.

PubMed

Toh, Sengwee; Reichman, Marsha E; Houstoun, Monika; Ding, Xiao; Fireman, Bruce H; Gravel, Eric; Levenson, Mark; Li, Lingling; Moyneur, Erick; Shoaibi, Azadeh; Zornberg, Gwen; Hennessy, Sean

2013-11-01

It is increasingly necessary to analyze data from multiple sources when conducting public health safety surveillance or comparative effectiveness research. However, security, privacy, proprietary, and legal concerns often reduce data holders' willingness to share highly granular information. We describe and compare two approaches that do not require sharing of patient-level information to adjust for confounding in multi-site studies. We estimated the risks of angioedema associated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), and aliskiren in comparison with beta-blockers within Mini-Sentinel, which has created a distributed data system of 18 health plans. To obtain the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), we performed (i) a propensity score-stratified case-centered logistic regression analysis, a method identical to a stratified Cox regression analysis but needing only aggregated risk set data, and (ii) an inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis, which requires only the site-specific HR and variance. We also performed simulations to further compare the two methods. Compared with beta-blockers, the adjusted HR was 3.04 (95% CI: 2.81, 3.27) for ACEIs, 1.16 (1.00, 1.34) for ARBs, and 2.85 (1.34, 6.04) for aliskiren in the case-centered analysis. The corresponding HRs were 2.98 (2.76, 3.21), 1.15 (1.00, 1.33), and 2.86 (1.35, 6.04) in the meta-analysis. Simulations suggested that the two methods may produce different results under certain analytic scenarios. The case-centered analysis and the meta-analysis produced similar results without the need to share patient-level data across sites in our empirical study, but may provide different results in other study settings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Surgery for left ventricular aneurysm: early and late survival after simple linear repair and endoventricular patch plasty.

PubMed

Lundblad, Runar; Abdelnoor, Michel; Svennevig, Jan Ludvig

2004-09-01

Simple linear resection and endoventricular patch plasty are alternative techniques to repair postinfarction left ventricular aneurysm. The aim of the study was to compare these 2 methods with regard to early mortality and long-term survival. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients undergoing operations between 1989 and 2003. The epidemiologic design was of an exposed (simple linear repair, n = 74) versus nonexposed (endoventricular patch plasty, n = 85) cohort with 2 endpoints: early mortality and long-term survival. The crude effect of aneurysm repair technique versus endpoint was estimated by odds ratio, rate ratio, or relative risk and their 95% confidence intervals. Stratification analysis by using the Mantel-Haenszel method was done to quantify confounders and pinpoint effect modifiers. Adjustment for multiconfounders was performed by using logistic regression and Cox regression analysis. Survival curves were analyzed with the Breslow test and the log-rank test. Early mortality was 8.2% for all patients, 13.5% after linear repair and 3.5% after endoventricular patch plasty. When adjusted for multiconfounders, the risk of early mortality was significantly higher after simple linear repair than after endoventricular patch plasty (odds ratio, 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-17.8). Mean follow-up was 5.8 +/- 3.8 years (range, 0-14.0 years). Overall 5-year cumulative survival was 78%, 70.1% after linear repair and 91.4% after endoventricular patch plasty. The risk of total mortality was significantly higher after linear repair than after endoventricular patch plasty when controlled for multiconfounders (relative risk, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-9.7). Linear repair dominated early in the series and patch plasty dominated later, giving a possible learning-curve bias in favor of patch plasty that could not be adjusted for in the regression analysis. Postinfarction left ventricular aneurysm can be repaired with satisfactory early and late results. Surgical risk was lower and long-term survival was higher after endoventricular patch plasty than simple linear repair. Differences in outcome should be interpreted with care because of the retrospective study design and the chronology of the 2 repair methods.

Association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term major adverse cardiovascular events: a nationwide population-based, propensity score-matched, cohort study

PubMed Central

Chang, Li-Hsin; Lin, Liang-Yu; Tsai, Ming-Tsun; How, Chorng-Kuang; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong; Hu, Sung-Yuan; Hsieh, Ming-Shun

2016-01-01

Objective Hyperglycaemic crisis was associated with significant intrahospital morbidity and mortality. However, the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term cardiovascular outcomes remained unknown. This study aimed to investigate the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and subsequent long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Participants and methods This population-based cohort study was conducted using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database for the period of 1996–2012. A total of 2171 diabetic patients with hyperglycaemic crisis fit the inclusion criteria. Propensity score matching was used to match the baseline characteristics of the study cohort to construct a comparison cohort which comprised 8684 diabetic patients without hyperglycaemic crisis. The risk of long-term MACEs was compared between the two cohorts. Results Six hundred and seventy-six MACEs occurred in the study cohort and the event rate was higher than that in the comparison cohort (31.1% vs 24.1%, p<0.001). Patients with hyperglycaemic crisis were associated with a higher risk of long-term MACEs even after adjusting for all baseline characteristics and medications (adjusted HR=1.76, 95% CI 1.62 to 1.92, p<0.001). Acute myocardial infarction had the highest adjusted HR (adjusted HR=2.19, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75, p<0.001) in the four types of MACEs, followed by congestive heart failure (adjusted HR=1.97, 95% CI 1.70 to 2.28, p<0.001). Younger patients with hyperglycaemic crisis had a higher risk of MACEs than older patients (adjusted HR=2.69 for patients aged 20–39 years vs adjusted HR=1.58 for patients aged >65 years). Conclusions Hyperglycaemic crisis was significantly associated with long-term MACEs, especially in the young population. Further prospective longitudinal study should be conducted for validation. PMID:27554106

Effects of severe obstetric complications on women’s health and infant mortality in Benin

PubMed Central

Filippi, Véronique; Goufodji, Sourou; Sismanidis, Charalambos; Kanhonou, Lydie; Fottrell, Edward; Ronsmans, Carine; Alihonou, Eusèbe; Patel, Vikram

2010-01-01

Summary Objective To document the impact of severe obstetric complications on post-partum health in mothers and mortality in babies over 12 months in Benin and to assess whether severe complications associated with perinatal death are particularly likely to lead to adverse health consequences. Methods Cohort study which followed women and their babies after a severe complication or an uncomplicated childbirth. Women were selected in hospitals and interviewed at home at discharge, and at 6 and 12 months post-partum. Women were invited for a medical check-up at 6 months and 12 months. Results The cohort includes 205 women with severe complications and a live birth, 64 women with severe complications and perinatal death and 440 women with uncomplicated delivery. Women with severe complications and a live birth were not dissimilar to women with a normal delivery in terms of post-partum health, except for hypertension [adjusted OR = 5.8 (1.9–17.0)], fever [adjusted OR = 1.71 (1.1–2.8)] and infant mortality [adjusted OR = 11.0 (0.8–158.2)]. Women with complications and perinatal death were at increased risk of depression [adjusted OR = 3.4 (1.3–9.0)], urine leakages [adjusted OR = 2.7 (1.2–5.8)], and to report poor health [adjusted OR = 5.27 (2.2–12.4)] and pregnancy’s negative effects on their life [adjusted OR = 4.11 (1.9–9.0)]. Uptake of post-natal services was poor in all groups. Conclusion Women in developing countries face a high risk of severe complications during pregnancy and delivery. These can lead to adverse consequences for their own health and that of their offspring. Resources are needed to ensure that pregnant women receive adequate care before, during and after discharge from hospital. Near-miss women with a perinatal death appear a particularly high-risk group. PMID:20406426

Risk of spontaneous preterm birth in relation to maternal experience of serious life events during pregnancy

PubMed Central

Barrios, Yasmin V; Sanchez, Sixto E; Qiu, Chunfang; Gelaye, Bizu; Williams, Michelle A

2014-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to examine the risk of preterm birth (PTB) in relation to serious life events experienced during pregnancy in Peruvian women. Methods This case-control study included 479 PTB cases and 480 term controls. In-person interviews asked information regarding sociodemographics, medical and reproductive histories, and serious life events experienced during pregnancy. Multivariate logistic regression procedures were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Compared with women who did not experience a serious life event during pregnancy, those who experienced the following life events had a more than two-fold increased odds of PTB: death of first-degree relative (adjusted OR 2.10; 95% CI 1.38–3.20), divorce or separation (adjusted OR 2.09; 95% CI 1.10–4.00), financial troubles (adjusted OR 2.70; 95% CI 1.85–3.94), or serious fight with partner (adjusted OR 2.40; 95% CI 1.78–3.17). Women who experienced any serious life events during pregnancy had higher odds (adjusted OR 2.29; 95% CI 1.65–3.18) of suffering spontaneous preterm labor and preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted OR 2.19; 95% CI 1.56–3.08), compared with women who did not experience any such events. Associations of similar directions and extent were observed for severity of PTB (ie, very, moderate, or late PTB). The magnitude of the associations increased as increased frequency of serious life events (Ptrend <0.001). Conclusion Experiencing serious life events during pregnancy was associated with increased odds of PTB among Peruvian women. Interventions aimed at assisting women experiencing serious life events may reduce the risk of PTB. Future studies should include objective measures of stress and stress response to understand better the biological underpinnings of these associations. PMID:24591850

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

PubMed

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-03-15

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

Rate, Relative Risk, and Method of Suicide by Students at 4-Year Colleges and Universities in the United States, 2004-2005 through 2008-2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Allan J.

2011-01-01

A total of 622 suicides were reported among students attending 645 distinct campuses from 2004-2005 through 2008-2009. Adjusting for gender in the population at risk of 14.9 million student-years and for the source of these data, the student suicide rate of 7.0 was significantly and substantially lower than for a matched national sample. Suicide…

Use of standard hypodermic needles for accessing laparoscopic adjustable gastric band ports.

PubMed

Bewsher, Samuel Mark; Azzi, Anthony; Wright, Timothy

2010-06-01

Laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding is a common and successful method of surgically treating morbid obesity. A recipient will have to attend their surgeon's rooms a number of times to optimally adjust the amount of fluid in the band and hence the amount of restriction. Manufacturers suggest that the ports should be accessed with special non-coring needles that may not always be available in regional or remote centers, and this could create a safety risk in cases where urgent band deflation is required. Ports of two different brands were repeatedly accessed over 100 times in the same location while containing fluid under pressure, using a standard beveled 21 g hypodermic needle (SN) and a 20 g Huber tipped non-coring needle (NCN). The path the needles types took through the port septum was also examined. There was no leakage of fluid from any of the ports tested. Neither SN nor NCN passed through the port septum down their axis, but rather in a direction closer to that of their beveled surface. There is no more risk of "coring" the septum with a SN than with a NCN. SN can be used safely and routinely to access laparoscopic adjustable gastric band ports.

Racial Disparity in Surgical Complications in New York State

PubMed Central

Fiscella, Kevin; Franks, Peter; Meldrum, Sean; Barnett, Steven

2005-01-01

Objective: To examine the relationship between race and surgical complications. Summary Background Data: Blacks have been reported to experience higher rates of surgical complications than whites, but the reasons are not known. Methods: The effect of the black race on risk of any surgical complication (from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's patient safety indicators) was examined using New York State (NYS) hospital discharge data from 1998 to 2000. Sequential, hierarchical analyses controlled for: 1) patient age and gender, 2) morbidity length of stay, 3) individual social factors, 4) hospital characteristics, and 5) ecologic factors (region of state, percent black and Medicaid annual discharges, and mean income of admitted patients). Results: Following adjustment for patient age and gender, blacks had 65% higher odds for a surgical complication. Further adjustment for comorbidity and length of stay (LOS) reduced the odds substantially to 1.18. Additional adjustment for American Hospital Association hospital characteristics essentially eliminated the risk. Final adjustment for hospital ecologic variables reduced the odds to 1.0. Conclusions: Higher rates of surgical complications among blacks than whites in NYS are primarily explained by differences in comorbidity LOS and the hospital where the surgery occurred. PMID:16041203

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... provisions for performance-based payments, do not compute a working capital adjustment. (d) Evaluation... working capital adjustment. 215.404-71-3 Section 215.404-71-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System... CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 215.404-71-3 Contract type risk and working capital adjustment. (a...

Premorbid social adjustment and association with attenuated psychotic symptoms in clinical high-risk and help-seeking youth.

PubMed

Tarbox-Berry, S I; Perkins, D O; Woods, S W; Addington, J

2018-04-01

Attenuated positive symptom syndrome (APSS), characterized by 'putatively prodromal' attenuated psychotic-like pathology, indicates increased risk for psychosis. Poor premorbid social adjustment predicts severity of APSS symptoms and predicts subsequent psychosis in APSS-diagnosed individuals, suggesting application for improving detection of 'true' prodromal youth who will transition to psychosis. However, these predictive associations have not been tested in controls and therefore may be independent of the APSS diagnosis, negating utility for improving prediction in APSS-diagnosed individuals. Association between premorbid social maladjustment and severity of positive, negative, disorganized, and general APSS symptoms was tested in 156 individuals diagnosed with APSS and 76 help-seeking (non-APSS) controls enrolled in the Enhancing the Prospective Prediction of Psychosis (PREDICT) study using prediction analysis. Premorbid social maladjustment was associated with social anhedonia, reduced expression of emotion, restricted ideational richness, and deficits in occupational functioning, independent of the APSS diagnosis. Associations between social maladjustment and suspiciousness, unusual thought content, avolition, dysphoric mood, and impaired tolerance to normal stress were uniquely present in participants meeting APSS criteria. Social maladjustment was associated with odd behavior/appearance and diminished experience of emotions and self only in participants who did not meet APSS criteria. Predictive associations between poor premorbid social adjustment and attenuated psychotic-like pathology were identified, a subset of which were indicative of high risk for psychosis. This study offers a method for improving risk identification while ruling out low-risk individuals.

Which Kindergarten Children are at Greatest Risk for Attention-deficit/Hyperactivity and Conduct Disorder Symptomatology as Adolescents?

PubMed Central

Morgan, Paul L.; Li, Hui; Cook, Michael; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Lin, Yu-chu

2015-01-01

Objective We sought to identify which kindergarten children are simultaneously at risk of moderate or severe symptomatology in both attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) as adolescents. These risk factor estimates have not been previously available. Method Multinomial logistic regression analyses of multi-informant ratings by the end of middle school of a population-based, longitudinal sample of children followed from kindergarten to eighth grade (N = 7,456). Results Kindergarten children from low SES households, those raised by mothers with depressive symptoms or experiencing emotional problems or substance abuse, or those who were punished by spanking were significantly more likely to later display severe levels of ADHD-CD symptomatology in eighth grade. Kindergarten children frequently engaging in ADHD-CD-type behaviors were more likely to later experience both moderate (covariate adjusted OR = 2.37) and severe (covariate adjusted OR = 3.63) ADHD-CD symptomatology. Low academic achievement uniquely increased the risk of both moderate and severe symptomatology (adjusted OR range = 1.7 to 2.24). Conclusions The results should guide early screening and school-based intervention efforts for ADHD-CD. Reducing children’s risk for adolescent ADHD-CD symptomatology may require remediating low behavioral and academic functioning by the end of kindergarten. When these two modifiable factors occur together they increase kindergarten children’s odds of experiencing severe ADHD-CD symptomatology in eighth grade by a multiplicative factor of 8.1. PMID:26192391

Physical punishment/maltreatment during childhood and adjustment in young adulthood.

PubMed

Fergusson, D M; Lynskey, M T

1997-07-01

To study the relationships between retrospective reports of physical punishment/maltreatment and rates of adjustment difficulties at age 18 in a birth cohort of New Zealand subjects. Data were gathered over the course of an 18 year longitudinal study of a birth cohort of 1,265 New Zealand born children. At age 18 retrospective reports of exposure to physical punishment/maltreatment were obtained. At this time the cohort was also assessed on measures of psychosocial adjustment juvenile offending, substance abuse behaviors, and psychiatric disorder. Young people reporting exposure to harsh or abusive treatment during childhood had elevated rates of juvenile offending, substance abuse, and mental health problems. However, subsequent analysis using logistic regression methods showed that much of the elevated risk shown by this group was explained by social and contextual factors that were associated with patterns of childhood punishment/maltreatment. Nonetheless, even after control for confounding factors those reporting harsh or abusive childhood experiences were at increased risks of violent offending, suicide attempts, being a victim of violence, and alcohol abuse. This study leads to three major conclusions: (1) Those exposed to harsh or abusive treatment during childhood are an at-risk population for juvenile offending, substance abuse, and mental health problems; (2) Much of this elevated risk arises from the social context within which harsh or abusive treatment occurs; (3) Nonetheless, exposure to abuse appears to increase risks of involvement in violent behavior and alcohol abuse.

Gastroduodenal Ulcers and ABO Blood Group: the Japan Nurses’ Health Study (JNHS)

PubMed Central

Ideno, Yuki; Lee, Jung-Su; Suzuki, Shosuke; Nakajima-Shimada, Junko; Ohnishi, Hiroshi; Sato, Yasunori; Hayashi, Kunihiko

2018-01-01

Background Although several studies have shown that blood type O is associated with increased risk of peptic ulcer, few studies have investigated these associations in Japan. We sought to investigate the association between the ABO blood group and risk of gastroduodenal ulcers (GDU) using combined analysis of both retrospective and prospective data from a large cohort study of Japanese women, the Japan Nurses’ Health Study (JNHS; n = 15,019). Methods The impact of the ABO blood group on GDU risk was examined using Cox regression analysis to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), with adjustment for potential confounders. Results Compared with women with non-O blood types (A, B, and AB), women with blood type O had a significantly increased risk of GDU from birth (multivariable-adjusted HR 1.18; 95% CI, 1.04–1.34). Moreover, the highest cumulative incidence of GDU was observed in women born pre-1956 with blood type O. In a subgroup analysis stratified by birth year (pre-1956 or post-1955), the multivariable-adjusted HR of women with blood type O was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.00–1.49) and 1.15 (95% CI, 0.98–1.35) in the pre-1956 and post-1955 groups, respectively. Conclusion In this large, combined, ambispective cohort study of Japanese women, older women with blood type O had a higher risk of developing GDU than those with other blood types. PMID:29093357

Hip/femur fractures associated with the use of benzodiazepines (anxiolytics, hypnotics and related drugs): a methodological approach to assess consistencies across databases from the PROTECT-EU project.

PubMed

Requena, Gema; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Logie, John; González-González, Rocío; Abbing-Karahagopian, Victoria; Miret, Montserrat; Schneider, Cornelia; Souverein, Patrick C; Webb, Dave; Afonso, Ana; Boudiaf, Nada; Martin, Elisa; Oliva, Belén; Alvarez, Arturo; De Groot, Mark C H; Bate, Andrew; Johansson, Saga; Schlienger, Raymond; Reynolds, Robert; Klungel, Olaf H; de Abajo, Francisco J

2016-03-01

Results from observational studies may be inconsistent because of variations in methodological and clinical factors that may be intrinsically related to the database (DB) where the study is performed. The objectives of this paper were to evaluate the impact of applying a common study protocol to study benzodiazepines (BZDs) (anxiolytics, hypnotics, and related drugs) and the risk of hip/femur fracture (HFF) across three European primary care DBs and to investigate any resulting discrepancies. To measure the risk of HFF among adult users of BZDs during 2001-2009, three cohort and nested case control (NCC) studies were performed in Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP) (Spain), Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) (UK), and Mondriaan (The Netherlands). Four different models (A-D) with increasing levels of adjustment were analyzed. The risk according to duration and type of BZD was also explored. Adjusted hazard ratios (cohort), odds ratios (NCC), and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Adjusted hazard ratios (Model C) were 1.34 (1.23-1.47) in BIFAP, 1.66 (1.54-1.78) in CPRD, and 2.22 (1.55-3.29) in Mondriaan in cohort studies. Adjusted odds ratios (Model C) were 1.28 (1.16-1.42) in BIFAP, 1.60 (1.49-1.72) in CPRD, and 1.48 (0.89-2.48) in Mondriaan in NCC studies. A short-term effect was suggested in Mondriaan, but not in CPRD or BIFAP. All DBs showed an increased risk with the concomitant use of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs. Applying similar study methods to different populations and DBs showed an increased risk of HFF in BZDs users but differed in the magnitude of the risk, which may be because of inherent differences between DBs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Thyroid Dysfunction, Thyroid Hormone Replacement and Colorectal Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Boursi, Ben; Haynes, Kevin; Mamtani, Ronac

2015-01-01

Background: Current screening guidelines for colorectal cancer (CRC) do not consider thyroid dysfunction as a risk factor for disease development. We sought to determine the risk of developing CRC in patients with thyroid dysfunction, with and without thyroid hormone replacement (THR). Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study using a large population-based medical records database from the United Kingdom. Study case patients were defined as those with any medical code of CRC. Subjects with familial colorectal cancer syndromes or inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) were excluded. For every case patient, four eligible control patients matched on age, sex, practice site, and duration of follow-up before index date were selected using incidence density sampling. Exposure was THR therapy before index date. We further divided the THR unexposed group into patients with hypothyroidism (TSH > 4mg/dl), patients with hyperthyroidism (TSH < 0.4mg/dl), and subjects without documented thyroid abnormality. The adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CRC were estimated using conditional logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: We identified 20990 CRC patients and 82054 control patients. The adjusted odds ratio for CRC associated with THR was 0.88 (95% CI = 0.79 to 0.99, P = .03) and 0.68 (95% CI = 0.55 to 0.83, P < .001) for treatment initiated five to 10 years and more than 10 years before index date, respectively. This protective association increased with cumulative duration of therapy. In contrast, hyperthyroidism (adjusted OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.36, P = .001) or untreated hypothyroidism (adjusted OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.24, P < .001) were associated with increased risk of CRC. Conclusion: Long-term THR is associated with a decreased risk of CRC. Hyperthyroidism and untreated hypothyroidism are associated with modestly elevated risk of CRC. PMID:25855726

Oral contraceptives and the risk of gallbladder disease: a comparative safety study

PubMed Central

Etminan, Mahyar; Delaney, Joseph A.C.; Bressler, Brian; Brophy, James M.

2011-01-01

Background Recent concerns have been raised about the risk of gallbladder disease associated with the use of drospirenone, a fourth-generation progestin used in oral contraceptives. We conducted a study to determine the magnitude of this risk compared with other formulations of oral contraceptives. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the IMS LifeLink Health Plan Claims Database. We included women who were using an oral contraceptive containing ethinyl estradiol combined with a progestin during 1997–2009. To be eligible, women had to have been taking the oral contraceptive continuously for at least six months. We computed adjusted rate ratios (RRs) for gallbladder disease using a Cox proportional hazards model. In the primary analysis, gallbladder disease was defined as cholecystectomy; in a secondary analysis, it was defined as hospital admission secondary to gallbladder disease. Results We included 2 721 014 women in the cohort, 27 087 of whom underwent surgical or laparoscopic cholecystectomy during the follow-up period. Compared with levonorgestrel, an older second-generation progestin, a small, statistically significant increase in the risk of gallbladder disease was associated with desogestrel (adjusted RR 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.09), drospirenone (adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 1.16–1.26) and norethindrone (adjusted RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06–1.14). No statistically significant increase in risk was associated with the other formulations of oral contraceptive (ethynodiol diacetate, norgestrel and norgestimate). Interpretation In a large cohort of women using oral contraceptives, we found a small, statistically significant increase in the risk of gallbladder disease associated with desogestrel, drospirenone and norethindrone compared with levonorgestrel. However, the small effect sizes compounded with the possibility of residual biases in this observational study make it unlikely that these differences are clinically significant. PMID:21502354

Lower Education Level Is a Risk Factor for Peritonitis and Technique Failure but Not a Risk for Overall Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis under Comprehensive Training System

PubMed Central

Kim, Hyo Jin; Lee, Joongyub; Park, Miseon; Kim, Yuri; Lee, Hajeong; Kim, Dong Ki; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Yon Su; Cho, Eun Jin; Ahn, Curie

2017-01-01

Background Lower education level could be a risk factor for higher peritoneal dialysis (PD)-associated peritonitis, potentially resulting in technique failure. This study evaluated the influence of lower education level on the development of peritonitis, technique failure, and overall mortality. Methods Patients over 18 years of age who started PD at Seoul National University Hospital between 2000 and 2012 with information on the academic background were enrolled. Patients were divided into three groups: middle school or lower (academic year≤9, n = 102), high school (912, n = 324). Outcomes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models and competing risk regression. Results A total of 655 incident PD patients (60.9% male, age 48.4±14.1 years) were analyzed. During follow-up for 41 (interquartile range, 20–65) months, 255 patients (38.9%) experienced more than one episode of peritonitis, 138 patients (21.1%) underwent technique failure, and 78 patients (11.9%) died. After adjustment, middle school or lower education group was an independent risk factor for peritonitis (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10–2.36; P = 0.015) and technique failure (adjusted HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10–3.18; P = 0.038), compared with higher than high school education group. However, lower education was not associated with increased mortality either by as-treated (adjusted HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.53–2.33; P = 0.788) or intent-to-treat analysis (P = 0.726). Conclusions Although lower education was a significant risk factor for peritonitis and technique failure, it was not associated with increased mortality in PD patients. Comprehensive training and multidisciplinary education may overcome the lower education level in PD. PMID:28056058

Plasma and blood viscosity in the prediction of cardiovascular disease and mortality in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study.

PubMed

Peters, Sanne Ae; Woodward, Mark; Rumley, Ann; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh D; Lowe, Gordon DO

2017-01-01

Background There is increasing evidence that blood viscosity and its major determinants (haematocrit and plasma viscosity) are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality; however, their predictive value for CVD and mortality is not clear. Methods We prospectively assessed the added predictive value of plasma viscosity and whole blood viscosity and haematocrit in 3386 men and women aged 30-74 years participating in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort study. Results Over a median follow-up of 17 years, 819 CVD events and 778 deaths were recorded. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for a 1 SD increase in plasma viscosity, adjusted for major CVD risk factors, were 1.12 (1.04-1.20) for CVD and 1.20 (1.12-1.29) for mortality. These remained significant after further adjustment for plasma fibrinogen: 1.09 (1.01-1.18) and 1.13 (1.04-1.22). The corresponding results for blood viscosity were 0.99 (0.90, 1.09) for CVD, and 1.11 (1.01, 1.22) for total mortality after adjustment for major CVD risk factors; and 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) and 1.06 (0.96, 1.18) after further adjustment for fibrinogen. Haematocrit showed similar associations to blood viscosity. When added to classical CVD risk factors, plasma viscosity improved the discrimination of CVD and mortality by 2.4% (0.7-4.4%) and 4.1% (2.0-6.5%). Conclusions Although plasma and blood viscosity may have a role in the pathogenesis of CVD and mortality, much of their association with CVD and mortality is due to the mutual effects of major CVD risk factors. However, plasma viscosity adds to the discrimination of CVD and mortality and might be considered for inclusion in multivariable risk scores.

Early Parental Positive Behavior Support and Childhood Adjustment: Addressing Enduring Questions with New Methods

PubMed Central

Waller, Rebecca; Gardner, Frances; Dishion, Thomas; Sitnick, Stephanie L.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Winter, Charlotte E.; Wilson, Melvin

2016-01-01

A large literature provides strong empirical support for the influence of parenting on child outcomes. The current study addresses enduring research questions testing the importance of early parenting behavior to children’s adjustment. Specifically, we developed and tested a novel multi-method observational measure of parental positive behavior support at age 2. Next, we tested whether early parental positive behavior support was related to child adjustment at school age, within a multi-agent and multi-method measurement approach and design. Observational and parent-reported data from mother–child dyads (N = 731; 49 percent female) were collected from a high-risk sample at age 2. Follow-up data were collected via teacher report and child assessment at age 7.5. The results supported combining three different observational methods to assess positive behavior support at age 2 within a latent factor. Further, parents’ observed positive behavior support at age 2 predicted multiple types of teacher-reported and child-assessed problem behavior and competencies at 7.5 years old. Results supported the validity and predictive capability of a multi-method observational measure of parenting and the importance of a continued focus on the early years within preventive interventions. PMID:26997757

Early Parental Positive Behavior Support and Childhood Adjustment: Addressing Enduring Questions with New Methods.

PubMed

Waller, Rebecca; Gardner, Frances; Dishion, Thomas; Sitnick, Stephanie L; Shaw, Daniel S; Winter, Charlotte E; Wilson, Melvin

2015-05-01

A large literature provides strong empirical support for the influence of parenting on child outcomes. The current study addresses enduring research questions testing the importance of early parenting behavior to children's adjustment. Specifically, we developed and tested a novel multi-method observational measure of parental positive behavior support at age 2. Next, we tested whether early parental positive behavior support was related to child adjustment at school age, within a multi-agent and multi-method measurement approach and design. Observational and parent-reported data from mother-child dyads (N = 731; 49 percent female) were collected from a high-risk sample at age 2. Follow-up data were collected via teacher report and child assessment at age 7.5. The results supported combining three different observational methods to assess positive behavior support at age 2 within a latent factor. Further, parents' observed positive behavior support at age 2 predicted multiple types of teacher-reported and child-assessed problem behavior and competencies at 7.5 years old. Results supported the validity and predictive capability of a multi-method observational measure of parenting and the importance of a continued focus on the early years within preventive interventions.

The association of substituting carbohydrates with total fat and different types of fatty acids with mortality and weight change among diabetes patients.

PubMed

Campmans-Kuijpers, Marjo J; Sluijs, Ivonne; Nöthlings, Ute; Freisling, Heinz; Overvad, Kim; Boeing, Heiner; Masala, Giovanna; Panico, Salvatore; Tumino, Rosario; Sieri, Sabina; Johansson, Ingegerd; Winkvist, Anna; Katzke, Verena A; Kuehn, Tilman; Nilsson, Peter M; Halkjær, Jytte; Tjønneland, Anne; Spijkerman, Annemieke M; Arriola, Larraitz; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Barricarte, Aurelio; May, Anne M; Beulens, Joline W

2016-10-01

Substitution of carbohydrates with fat in a diet for type 2 diabetes patients is still debated. This study aimed to investigate the association between dietary carbohydrate intake and isocaloric substitution with (i) total fat, (ii) saturated fatty acids (SFA), (iii) mono-unsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and (iv) poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) with all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality risk and 5-year weight change in patients with type 2 diabetes. The study included 6192 patients with type 2 diabetes from 15 cohorts of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at recruitment with country-specific food-frequency questionnaires. Cox and linear regression were used to estimate the associations with (CVD) mortality and weight change, adjusting for confounders and using different methods to adjust for energy intake. After a mean follow-up of 9.2 y ± SD 2.3 y, 791 (13%) participants had died, of which 268 (4%) due to CVD. Substituting 10 g or 5 energy% of carbohydrates by total fat was associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.07 [1.02-1.13]), or SFAs (HR 1.25 [1.11-1.40]) and a lower risk when replaced by MUFAs (HR 0.89 [0.77-1.02]). When carbohydrates were substituted with SFAs (HR 1.22 [1.00-1.49]) or PUFAs (HR 1.29 [1.02-1.63]) CVD mortality risk increased. The 5-year weight was lower when carbohydrates were substituted with total fat or MUFAs. These results were consistent over different energy adjustment methods. In diabetes patients, substitution of carbohydrates with SFAs was associated with a higher (CVD) mortality risk and substitution by total fat was associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk. Substitution of carbohydrates with MUFAs may be associated with lower mortality risk and weight reduction. Instead of promoting replacement of carbohydrates by total fat, dietary guideline should continue focusing on replacement by fat-subtypes; especially SFAs by MUFAs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Effect of conjugal bereavement on mortality of the bereaved spouse in participants of the Renfrew/Paisley Study

PubMed Central

Hart, Carole L; Hole, David J; Lawlor, Debbie A; Smith, George Davey; Lever, Tony F

2007-01-01

Objectives To investigate how loss of a spouse affects mortality risk in the bereaved partner. Design and setting Prospective cohort study in Renfrew and Paisley in Scotland. Participants 4395 married couples aged 45–64 years when the study was carried out between 1972 and 1976. Methods The date of bereavement for the bereaved spouse was the date of death of his or her spouse. Bereavement could occur at any time during the follow‐up period, so it was considered as a time‐dependent exposure variable and the Cox proportional hazards model for time‐dependent variables was used. The relative rate (RR) of mortality was calculated for bereaved versus non‐bereaved spouses and adjusted for confounding variables. Main outcome measures Causes of death to 31 March 2004. Results Bereaved participants were at higher risk than non‐bereaved participants of dying from any cause (RR 1.27; 95% CI 1.2 to 1.35). These risks remained but were attenuated after adjustment for confounding variables. There were raised RRs for bereaved participants dying of cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, all cancer, lung cancer, smoking‐related cancer, and accidents or violence. After adjustment for confounding variables, RRs remained higher for bereaved participants for all these causes except for mortality from lung cancer. There was no strong statistical evidence that the increased risks of death associated with bereavement changed with time after bereavement. Conclusions Conjugal bereavement, in addition to existing risk factors, is related to mortality risk for major causes of death. PMID:17435215

Combination Antiretroviral Use and Preterm Birth

PubMed Central

Watts, D. Heather; Williams, Paige L.; Kacanek, Deborah; Griner, Raymond; Rich, Kenneth; Hazra, Rohan; Mofenson, Lynne M.; Mendez, Hermann A.

2013-01-01

Background. Use of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) during pregnancy has been associated with higher risk of preterm birth. Methods. The Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study network's Surveillance Monitoring for ART Toxicities study is a US-based cohort of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–exposed uninfected children. We evaluated maternal ARV use during pregnancy and the risk of any type of preterm birth (ie, birth before 37 completed weeks of gestation), the risk of spontaneous preterm birth (ie, preterm birth that occurred after preterm labor or membrane rupture, without other complications), and the risk of small for gestational age (SGA; ie, a birth weight of <10th percentile for gestational age). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of ARVs and timing of exposure, while adjusting for maternal characteristics. Results. Among 1869 singleton births, 18.6% were preterm, 10.2% were spontaneous preterm, and 7.3% were SGA. A total of 89% used 3-drug combination ARV regimens during pregnancy. In adjusted models, the odds of preterm birth and spontaneous preterm birth were significantly greater among mothers who used protease inhibitors during the first trimester (adjusted odds ratios, 1.55 and 1.59, respectively) but not among mothers who used nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor or triple-nucleoside regimens during the first trimester. Combination ARV exposure starting later in pregnancy was not associated with increased risk. No associations were observed between SGA and exposure to combination ARV regimens. Conclusions. Protease inhibitor use early in pregnancy may be associated with increased risk for prematurity. PMID:23204173

Increased Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Young Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Ching-Chih; Department of Otolaryngology, Buddhist Dalin Tzu Chi General Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan; Tumor Center, Buddhist Dalin Tzu Chi General Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan

Purpose: Radiation/chemoradiotherapy-induced carotid stenosis and cerebrovascular events in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) can cause severe disability and even death. This study aimed to estimate the risk of ischemic stroke in this patient population over more than 10 years of follow-up. Methods and Materials: The study cohorts consisted of all patients hospitalized with a principal diagnosis of NPC (n = 1094), whereas patients hospitalized for an appendectomy during 1997 and 1998 (n = 4376) acted as the control group and surrogate for the general population. Cox proportional hazard model was performed as a means of comparing the stroke-free survival ratemore » between the two cohorts after adjusting for possible confounding and risk factors. Results: Of the 292 patients with ischemic strokes, 62 (5.7%) were from the NPC cohort and 230 (5.3%) were from the control group. NPC patients ages 35-54 had a 1.66 times (95% CI, 1.16-2.86; p = 0.009) higher risk of ischemic stroke after adjusting for patient characteristics, comorbidities, geographic region, urbanization level of residence, and socioeconomic status. There was no statistical difference in ischemic stroke risk between the NPC patients and appendectomy patients ages 55-64 years (hazard ratio = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.56-1.33; p = 0.524) after adjusting for other factors. Conclusions: Young NPC patients carry a higher risk for ischemic stroke than the general population. Besides regular examinations of carotid duplex, different irradiation strategies or using new technique of radiotherapy, such as intensity modulated radiation therapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy, should be considered in young NPC patients.« less

Increased risk of coronary heart disease among individuals reporting adverse impact of stress on their health: the Whitehall II prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Nabi, Hermann; Kivimäki, Mika; Batty, G. David; Shipley, Martin J.; Britton, Annie; Brunner, Eric J.; Vahtera, Jussi; Lemogne, Cédric; Elbaz, Alexis; Singh-Manoux, Archana

2013-01-01

Aim Response to stress can vary greatly between individuals. However, it remains unknown whether perceived impact of stress on health is associated with adverse health outcomes. We examined whether individuals who report that stress adversely affects their health are at increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) compared with those who report that stress has no adverse health impact. Methods and results Analyses are based on 7268 men and women (mean age: 49.5 years, interquartile range: 11 years) from the British Whitehall II cohort study. Over 18 years of follow-up, there were 352 coronary deaths or first non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) events. After adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, participants who reported at baseline that stress has affected their health ‘a lot or extremely’ had a 2.12 times higher (95% CI 1.52–2.98) risk of coronary death or incident non-fatal MI when compared with those who reported no effect of stress on their health. This association was attenuated but remained statistically significant after adjustment for biological, behavioural, and other psychological risk factors including perceived stress levels, and measures of social support; fully adjusted hazard ratio: 1.49 (95% CI 1.01–2.22). Conclusions In this prospective cohort study, the perception that stress affects health, different from perceived stress levels, was associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease. Randomized controlled trials are needed to determine whether disease risk can be reduced by increasing clinical attention to those who complain that stress greatly affects their health. PMID:23804585

Absence of evidence for increase in risk for autism or attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder following antidepressant exposure during pregnancy: a replication study.

PubMed

Castro, V M; Kong, S W; Clements, C C; Brady, R; Kaimal, A J; Doyle, A E; Robinson, E B; Churchill, S E; Kohane, I S; Perlis, R H

2016-01-05

Multiple studies have examined the risk of prenatal antidepressant exposure and risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), with inconsistent results. Precisely estimating such risk, if any, is of great importance in light of the need to balance such risk with the benefit of depression and anxiety treatment. We developed a method to integrate data from multiple New England health systems, matching offspring and maternal health data in electronic health records to characterize diagnoses and medication exposure. Children with ASD or ADHD were matched 1:3 with children without neurodevelopmental disorders. Association between maternal antidepressant exposure and ASD or ADHD liability was examined using logistic regression, adjusting for potential sociodemographic and psychiatric confounding variables. In new cohorts of 1245 ASD cases and 1701 ADHD cases, along with age-, sex- and socioeconomic status matched controls, neither disorder was significantly associated with prenatal antidepressant exposure in crude or adjusted models (adjusted odds ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.50-1.54 for ASD; 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.69 for ADHD). Pre-pregnancy antidepressant exposure significantly increased risk for both disorders. These results suggest that prior reports of association between prenatal antidepressant exposure and neurodevelopmental disease are likely to represent a false-positive finding, which may arise in part through confounding by indication. They further demonstrate the potential to integrate data across electronic health records studies spanning multiple health systems to enable efficient pharmacovigilance investigation.

Clinical risk factors for preeclampsia in the 21st century.

PubMed

Paré, Emmanuelle; Parry, Samuel; McElrath, Thomas F; Pucci, Dominick; Newton, Amy; Lim, Kee-Hak

2014-10-01

We sought to validate several clinical risk factors previously described for preeclampsia in a large contemporary multicenter prospective cohort. We enrolled women from three sites before 15 weeks of gestation. Demographic and clinical risk factors were collected through standardized chart review. The main outcome of preeclampsia was diagnosed using the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists definitions from 2002. Multivariable logistic regression was used to control for confounders. Two thousand six hundred thirty-seven women are included in this analysis; 237 (9.0%) developed preeclampsia. In adjusted analysis, chronic hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.72; 95% confidence interval 1.78-4.13), pregestational diabetes (adjusted OR 3.88; 2.08-7.26), multiple gestation (adjusted OR 2.96; 1.74-5.03), African American race (adjusted OR 1.91; 1.35-2.71), prior preeclampsia (adjusted OR 3.63; 2.29-5.73), nulliparity (adjusted OR 1.73; 1.26-2.38), assisted reproductive techniques (adjusted OR: 1.72; 1.10-2.68), and being overweight (adjusted OR for body mass index [BMI, kg/m] greater than 25-30: 1.65; 1.13-2.41) or obese (adjusted OR for BMI greater than 30-35: 2.34, 1.51-3.61; adjusted OR for BMI greater than 35-40: 3.59, 2.13-6.03; adjusted OR for BMI greater than 40: 6.04, 3.56-10.24) were associated with preeclampsia, but advanced maternal age was not. Similar associations were found for severe preeclampsia. A dose-response effect was observed in the relationship between BMI and both preeclampsia and severe preeclampsia. Being overweight or obese was the most important risk factor for both preeclampsia and severe preeclampsia with an attributable risk percent of 64.9% and 64.4%, respectively. In this contemporary cohort, increasingly prevalent and potentially modifiable factors were confirmed as significant risk factors for preeclampsia and severe preeclampsia, the most important being overweight or obese. This information is important to guide public health efforts in preeclampsia prevention. : II.

Interparental Violence and Childhood Adjustment: How and Why Maternal Sensitivity is a Protective Factor

PubMed Central

Manning, Liviah G.; Davies, Patrick T.; Cicchetti, Dante

2014-01-01

This study examined sensitive parenting as a protective factor in relations between interparental violence and children’s coping and psychological adjustment. Using a multi-method approach, a high risk sample of 201 two-year olds and their mothers participated in three annual waves of data collection. Moderator analyses revealed that sensitive parenting buffered the risk posed by interparental violence on children’s changes in externalizing and prosocial development over a two year period. Tests of mediated moderation further indicated that sensitive parenting protected children from the vulnerability of growing up in a violent home through its association with lower levels of children’s angry reactivity to interparental conflict. Results highlight the significance of identifying the mechanisms that mediate protective factors in models of family adversity. PMID:25132541

Comparative effectiveness of angiotensin-receptor blockers for preventing macrovascular disease in patients with diabetes: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Antoniou, Tony; Camacho, Ximena; Yao, Zhan; Gomes, Tara; Juurlink, David N.; Mamdani, Muhammad M.

2013-01-01

Background: Telmisartan, unlike other angiotensin-receptor blockers, is a partial agonist of peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor-γ, a property that has been associated with improvements in surrogate markers of cardiovascular health in small trials involving patients with diabetes. However, whether this property translates into a reduced risk of cardiovascular events and death in these patients is unknown. We sought to explore the risk of myocardial infarction, stroke and heart failure in patients with diabetes who were taking telmisartan relative to the risk of these events occurring in patients taking other angiotensin-receptor blockers. Methods: We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of Ontario residents with diabetes aged 66 years and older who started treatment with candesartan, irbesartan, losartan, telmisartan or valsartan between Apr. 1, 2001, and Mar. 31, 2011. Our primary outcome was a composite of admission to hospital for acute myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure. We examined each outcome individually in secondary analyses, in addition to all-cause mortality. Results: We identified 54 186 patients with diabetes who started taking an angiotensin-receptor blocker during the study period. After multivariable adjustment, patients who took either telmisartan (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74–0.97) or valsartan (adjusted HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77–0.95) had a lower risk of the composite outcome compared with patients who took irbesartan. In contrast, no significant difference in risk was seen between other angiotensin-receptor blockers and irbesartan. In secondary analyses, we found a reduced risk of admission to hospital for heart failure with telmisartan compared with irbesartan (adjusted HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.66–0.96), but no significant differences in risk were seen between angiotensin-receptor blockers in our other secondary analyses. Interpretation: Compared with other angiotensin-receptor blockers, telmisartan and valsartan were both associated with a lower risk of admission to hospital for acute myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure among older adults with diabetes and hypertension. Telmisartan and valsartan may therefore be the preferred angiotensin-receptor blockers for use in these patients. PMID:23836857

Comparison of black–white disparities in preterm birth between Canada and the United States

PubMed Central

McKinnon, Britt; Yang, Seungmi; Kramer, Michael S.; Bushnik, Tracey; Sheppard, Amanda J.; Kaufman, Jay S.

2016-01-01

Background: A higher risk of preterm birth among black women than among white women is well established in the United States. We compared differences in preterm birth between non-Hispanic black and white women in Canada and the US, hypothesizing that disparities would be less extreme in Canada given the different historical experiences of black populations and Canada’s universal health care system. Methods: Using data on singleton live births in Canada and the US for 2004–2006, we estimated crude and adjusted risk ratios and risk differences in preterm birth (< 37 wk) and very preterm birth (< 32 wk) among non-Hispanic black versus non-Hispanic white women in each country. Adjusted models for the US were standardized to the covariate distribution of the Canadian cohort. Results: In Canada, 8.9% and 5.9% of infants born to black and white mothers, respectively, were preterm; the corresponding figures in the US were 12.7% and 8.0%. Crude risk ratios for preterm birth among black women relative to white women were 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32 to 1.66) in Canada and 1.57 (95% CI 1.56 to 1.58) in the US (p value for heterogeneity [pH] = 0.3). The crude risk differences for preterm birth were 2.94 (95% CI 1.91 to 3.96) in Canada and 4.63 (95% CI 4.56 to 4.70) in the US (pH = 0.003). Adjusted risk ratios for preterm birth (pH = 0.1) were slightly higher in Canada than in the US, whereas adjusted risk differences were similar in both countries. Similar patterns were observed for racial disparities in very preterm birth. Interpretation: Relative disparities in preterm birth and very preterm birth between non-Hispanic black and white women were similar in magnitude in Canada and the US. Absolute disparities were smaller in Canada, which reflects a lower overall risk of preterm birth in Canada than in the US in both black and white populations. PMID:26553860

Reader performance in visual assessment of breast density using visual analogue scales: Are some readers more predictive of breast cancer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayner, Millicent; Harkness, Elaine F.; Foden, Philip; Wilson, Mary; Gadde, Soujanya; Beetles, Ursula; Lim, Yit Y.; Jain, Anil; Bundred, Sally; Barr, Nicky; Evans, D. Gareth; Howell, Anthony; Maxwell, Anthony; Astley, Susan M.

2018-03-01

Mammographic breast density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer, and is used in risk prediction and for deciding appropriate imaging strategies. In the Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study, percent density estimated by two readers on Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) has shown a strong relationship with breast cancer risk when assessed against automated methods. However, this method suffers from reader variability. This study aimed to assess the performance of PROCAS readers using VAS, and to identify those most predictive of breast cancer. We selected the seven readers who had estimated density on over 6,500 women including at least 100 cancer cases, analysing their performance using multivariable logistic regression and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis. All seven readers showed statistically significant odds ratios (OR) for cancer risk according to VAS score after adjusting for classical risk factors. The OR was greatest for reader 18 at 1.026 (95% Cl 1.018-1.034). Adjusted Area Under the ROC Curves (AUCs) were statistically significant for all readers, but greatest for reader 14 at 0.639. Further analysis of the VAS scores for these two readers showed reader 14 had higher sensitivity (78.0% versus 42.2%), whereas reader 18 had higher specificity (78.0% versus 46.0%). Our results demonstrate individual differences when assigning VAS scores; one better identified those with increased risk, whereas another better identified low risk individuals. However, despite their different strengths, both readers showed similar predictive abilities overall. Standardised training for VAS may improve reader variability and consistency of VAS scoring.

Single Nucleotide Polymorphism in ATM Gene, Cooking Oil Fumes and Lung Adenocarcinoma Susceptibility in Chinese Female Non-Smokers: A Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Shen, Li; Yin, Zhihua; Wu, Wei; Ren, Yangwu; Li, Xuelian; Zhou, Baosen

2014-01-01

Background The ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) gene plays an important role in the DNA double-strand breaks repair pathway. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of DNA repair genes are suspected to influence the risk of lung cancer. This study aimed to investigate the association between the ATM -111G>A (rs189037) polymorphism, environmental risk factors and the risk of lung adenocarcinoma in Chinese female non-smokers. Methods A hospital-based case-control study of 487 lung cancer patients and 516 matched cancer-free controls was conducted. Information concerning demographic and environmental risk factors was obtained for each case and control by a trained interviewer. After informed consent was obtained, 10 ml venous blood was collected from each subject for biomarker testing. Single nucleotide polymorphism was determined by using TaqMan method. Results This study showed that the individuals with ATM rs189037 AA genotype were at an increased risk for lung adenocarcinoma compared with those carrying the GA or GG genotype (adjusted odds ratios (OR) 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–2.02, P = 0.039). The stratified analysis suggested that increased risk associated with ATM rs189037 AA genotype in individuals who never or seldom were exposed to cooking oil fumes (adjusted OR 1.89, 95%CI 1.03–3.49, P = 0.040). Conclusions ATM rs189037 might be associated with the risk of lung adenocarcinoma in Chinese non-smoking females. Furthermore, ATM rs189037 AA genotype might be a risk factor of lung adenocarcinoma among female non-smokers without cooking oil fume exposure. PMID:24819391

Antithyroid drug-related hepatotoxicity in hyperthyroidism patients: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Wang, Meng-Ting; Lee, Wan-Ju; Huang, Tien-Yu; Chu, Che-Li; Hsieh, Chang-Hsun

2014-01-01

Aims The evidence of hepatotoxicity of antithyroid drugs (ATDs) is limited to case reports or spontaneous reporting. This study aimed to quantify the incidence and comparative risks of hepatotoxicity for methimazole (MMI)/carbimazole (CBM) vs. propylthiouracil (PTU) in a population-based manner. Methods We conducted a cohort study of hyperthyroidism patients initially receiving MMI/CBM or PTU between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2008 using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The examined hepatotoxicity consisted of cholestasis, non-infectious hepatitis, acute liver failure and liver transplant, with the incidences and relative risks being quantified by Poisson exact methods and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Results The study cohort comprised 71 379 ATD initiators, with a median follow-up of 196 days. MMI/CBM vs. PTU users had a higher hepatitis incidence rate (3.17/1000 vs. 1.19/1000 person-years) but a lower incidence of acute liver failure (0.32/1000 vs. 0.68/1000 person-years). The relative risk analysis indicated that any use of MMI/CBM was associated with a 2.89-fold (95% CI 1.81, 4.60) increased hepatitis risk compared with PTU, with the risk increasing to 5.08-fold for high dose MMI/CBM (95% CI 3.15, 8.18). However, any MMI/CBM use vs. PTU was not related to an increased risk of cholestasis (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI 0.40, 3.72) or acute liver failure (adjusted HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.24, 1.22). Conclusions MMI/CBM and PTU exert dissimilar incidence rates of hepatotoxicity. Compared to PTU, MMI/CBM are associated in a dose-dependent manner with an increased risk for hepatitis while the risks are similar for acute liver failure and cholestasis. PMID:25279406

Higher risk of venous thrombosis associated with drospirenone-containing oral contraceptives: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Gronich, Naomi; Lavi, Idit; Rennert, Gad

2011-01-01

Background: Combined oral contraceptives are a common method of contraception, but they carry a risk of venous and arterial thrombosis. We assessed whether use of drospirenone was associated with an increase in thrombotic risk relative to third-generation combined oral contraceptives. Methods: Using computerized records of the largest health care provider in Israel, we identified all women aged 12 to 50 years for whom combined oral contraceptives had been dispensed between Jan. 1, 2002, and Dec. 31, 2008. We followed the cohort until 2009. We used Poisson regression models to estimate the crude and adjusted rate ratios for risk factors for venous thrombotic events (specifically deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) and arterial thromboic events (specifically transient ischemic attack and cerebrovascular accident). We performed multivariable analyses to compare types of contraceptives, with adjustment for the various risk factors. Results: We identified a total of 1017 (0.24%) venous and arterial thrombotic events among 431 223 use episodes during 819 749 woman-years of follow-up (6.33 venous events and 6.10 arterial events per 10 000 woman-years). In a multivariable model, use of drospirenone carried an increased risk of venous thrombotic events, relative to both third-generation combined oral contraceptives (rate ratio [RR] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15–1.78) and second-generation combined oral contraceptives (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.02–2.65). There was no increase in the risk of arterial thrombosis with drospirenone. Interpretation: Use of drospirenone-containing oral contraceptives was associated with an increased risk of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, but not transient ischemic attack or cerebrovascular attack, relative to second- and third-generation combined oral contraceptives. PMID:22065352

Odds per Adjusted Standard Deviation: Comparing Strengths of Associations for Risk Factors Measured on Different Scales and Across Diseases and Populations

PubMed Central

Hopper, John L.

2015-01-01

How can the “strengths” of risk factors, in the sense of how well they discriminate cases from controls, be compared when they are measured on different scales such as continuous, binary, and integer? Given that risk estimates take into account other fitted and design-related factors—and that is how risk gradients are interpreted—so should the presentation of risk gradients. Therefore, for each risk factor X0, I propose using appropriate regression techniques to derive from appropriate population data the best fitting relationship between the mean of X0 and all the other covariates fitted in the model or adjusted for by design (X1, X2, … , Xn). The odds per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) presents the risk association for X0 in terms of the change in risk per s = standard deviation of X0 adjusted for X1, X2, … , Xn, rather than the unadjusted standard deviation of X0 itself. If the increased risk is relative risk (RR)-fold over A adjusted standard deviations, then OPERA = exp[ln(RR)/A] = RRs. This unifying approach is illustrated by considering breast cancer and published risk estimates. OPERA estimates are by definition independent and can be used to compare the predictive strengths of risk factors across diseases and populations. PMID:26520360

Substance-Use Disorders and Poverty as Prospective Predictors of First-Time Homelessness in the United States

PubMed Central

Wall, Melanie M.; Greenstein, Eliana; Grant, Bridget F.; Hasin, Deborah S.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether substance-use disorders and poverty predicted first-time homelessness over 3 years. Methods. We analyzed longitudinal data from waves 1 (2001–2002) and 2 (2004–2005) of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions to determine the main and interactive effects of wave 1 substance use disorders and poverty on first-time homelessness by wave 2, among those who were never homeless at wave 1 (n = 30 558). First-time homelessness was defined as having no regular place to live or having to live with others for 1 month or more as a result of having no place of one’s own since wave 1. Results. Alcohol-use disorders (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.34), drug-use disorders (AOR = 2.51), and poverty (AOR = 1.34) independently increased prospective risk for first-time homelessness, after adjustment for ecological variables. Substance-use disorders and poverty interacted to differentially influence risk for first-time homelessness (P < .05), before, but not after, adjustment for controls. Conclusions. This study reinforces the importance of both substance-use disorders and poverty in the risk for first-time homelessness, and can serve as a benchmark for future studies. Substance abuse treatment should address financial status and risk of future homelessness. PMID:24148043

Public Reporting of Primary Care Clinic Quality: Accounting for Sociodemographic Factors in Risk Adjustment and Performance Comparison.

PubMed

Wholey, Douglas R; Finch, Michael; Kreiger, Rob; Reeves, David

2018-01-03

Performance measurement and public reporting are increasingly being used to compare clinic performance. Intended consequences include quality improvement, value-based payment, and consumer choice. Unintended consequences include reducing access for riskier patients and inappropriately labeling some clinics as poor performers, resulting in tampering with stable care processes. Two analytic steps are used to maximize intended and minimize unintended consequences. First, risk adjustment is used to reduce the impact of factors outside providers' control. Second, performance categorization is used to compare clinic performance using risk-adjusted measures. This paper examines the effects of methodological choices, such as risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors in risk adjustment and accounting for patients clustering by clinics in performance categorization, on clinic performance comparison for diabetes care, vascular care, asthma, and colorectal cancer screening. The population includes all patients with commercial and public insurance served by clinics in Minnesota. Although risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors has a significant effect on quality, it does not explain much of the variation in quality. In contrast, taking into account the nesting of patients within clinics in performance categorization has a substantial effect on performance comparison.

Coffee consumption modifies risk of estrogen-receptor negative breast cancer

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Breast cancer is a complex disease and may be sub-divided into hormone-responsive (estrogen receptor (ER) positive) and non-hormone-responsive subtypes (ER-negative). Some evidence suggests that heterogeneity exists in the associations between coffee consumption and breast cancer risk, according to different estrogen receptor subtypes. We assessed the association between coffee consumption and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in a large population-based study (2,818 cases and 3,111 controls), overall, and stratified by ER tumour subtypes. Methods Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using the multivariate logistic regression models fitted to examine breast cancer risk in a stratified case-control analysis. Heterogeneity among ER subtypes was evaluated in a case-only analysis, by fitting binary logistic regression models, treating ER status as a dependent variable, with coffee consumption included as a covariate. Results In the Swedish study, coffee consumption was associated with a modest decrease in overall breast cancer risk in the age-adjusted model (OR> 5 cups/day compared to OR≤ 1 cup/day: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.99, P trend = 0.028). In the stratified case-control analyses, a significant reduction in the risk of ER-negative breast cancer was observed in heavy coffee drinkers (OR> 5 cups/day compared to OR≤ 1 cup/day : 0.43, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.72, P trend = 0.0003) in a multivariate-adjusted model. The breast cancer risk reduction associated with higher coffee consumption was significantly higher for ER-negative compared to ER-positive tumours (P heterogeneity (age-adjusted) = 0.004). Conclusions A high daily intake of coffee was found to be associated with a statistically significant decrease in ER-negative breast cancer among postmenopausal women. PMID:21569535

Childhood Size and Life Course Weight Characteristics in Association With the Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Yeung, Edwina H.; Zhang, Cuilin; Louis, Germaine M. Buck; Willett, Walter C.; Hu, Frank B.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE To determine how childhood overweight, in conjunction with other life course weight characteristics, relates to the development of type 2 diabetes in adulthood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Among 109,172 women in the Nurses' Health Study II, body fatness at ages 5, 10, and 20 years was assessed by recall using 9-level pictorial diagrams (somatotypes) representing extreme thinness (category 1) to obesity (category 9). Recalled weights at age 18 years and adulthood were used to derive BMI. Self-reported cases of type 2 diabetes were confirmed by supplementary questionnaire. RESULTS Somatotypes at ages 5 and 10 years were positively associated with diabetes risk (Ptrend < 0.0001). The adjusted relative risk (RR) of women with somatotype ≥6 (vs. 2) at age 5 years was 2.19 (95% CI 1.79–2.67) and at age 10 years was 2.57 (2.20–3.01). Increases in size by somatotype or by weight gain since age 18 were associated with increased risk. Compared with women who were never overweight at any age, women who were overweight as an adult (BMI >25 kg/m2) but not previously had an adjusted RR of 8.23 (7.41–9.15). The adjusted RR was 15.10 (13.21–17.26) for women who were also overweight at age 10 (somatotype ≥5) and 18 (BMI >25 kg/m2). Increased childhood size was not associated with risk among women who did not continue to be overweight in adulthood. CONCLUSIONS Increased body size starting from childhood is associated with a greater risk of diabetes in adulthood. However, women who become lean in adulthood do not have an increased risk. PMID:20215459

Night shift work at specific age ranges and chronic disease risk factors

PubMed Central

Ramin, Cody; Devore, Elizabeth E; Wang, Weike; Pierre-Paul, Jeffrey; Wegrzyn, Lani R; Schernhammer, Eva S

2014-01-01

Objectives We examined the association of night shift work history and age when night shift work was performed with cancer and cardiovascular disease risk factors among 54 724 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) II. Methods We calculated age-adjusted and socioeconomic status-adjusted means and percentages for cancer and cardiovascular risk factors in 2009 across categories of night shift work history. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for key risk factors among 54 724 participants (72% ever shift workers). We further examined these associations by age (20–25, 26–35, 36– 45 and 46+ years) at which shift work was performed. Results Ever night shift workers had increased odds of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2; OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.43); higher caffeine intake (≥131 mg/day; OR=1.16, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.22) and total calorie intake (≥1715 kcal/day; OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13); current smoking (OR=1.30, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.42); and shorter sleep durations (≤7 h of sleep/day; OR=1.19, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.24) compared to never night shift workers. These estimates varied depending on age at which night work was performed, with a suggestion that night shift work before age 25 was associated with fewer risk factors compared to night shift work at older ages. Conclusions Our results indicate that night shift work may contribute to an adverse chronic disease risk profile, and that risk factors may vary depending on the age at which night shift work was performed. PMID:25261528

Comparative coronary risks of apixaban, rivaroxaban and dabigatran: a meta-analysis and adjusted indirect comparison

PubMed Central

Loke, Yoon K; Pradhan, Shiva; Yeong, Jessica Ka-yan; Kwok, Chun Shing

2014-01-01

Aims There are concerns regarding increased risk of acute coronary syndrome with dabigatran. We aimed to assess whether alternative treatment options such as rivaroxaban or apixaban carry a similar risk as compared with dabigatran. Methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for randomized controlled trials of apixaban, dabigatran or rivaroxaban against control (placebo, heparin or vitamin K antagonist). We pooled odds ratios (OR) for adverse coronary events (acute coronary syndrome or myocardial infarction) using fixed effect meta-analysis and assessed heterogeneity with I2. We conducted adjusted indirect comparisons to compare risk of adverse coronary events with apixaban or rivaroxaban vs. dabigatran. Results Twenty-seven randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria. Dabigatran was associated with a significantly increased risk of adverse coronary events in pooled analysis of nine trials (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.14, 1.86). There was no signal for coronary risk with apixaban from nine trials (pooled OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.78, 1.03) or rivaroxaban from nine trials (pooled OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.72, 0.93). Overall, adjusted indirect comparison suggested that both apixaban (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44, 0.85) and rivaroxaban (OR 0.54; 95% CI 0.39, 0.76) were associated with lower coronary risk than dabigatran. Restricting the indirect comparison to a vitamin K antagonist as a common control, yielded similar findings, OR 0.57 (95% CI 0.39, 0.85) for apixaban vs. dabigatran and 0.53 (95% CI 0.37, 0.77) for rivaroxaban vs. dabigatran. Conclusions There are significant differences in the comparative safety of apixaban, rivaroxaban and dabigatran with regards to acute coronary adverse events. PMID:24617578

Extravasation Risk Using Ultrasound Guided Peripheral Intravenous Catheters for Computed Tomography Contrast Administration

PubMed Central

Rupp, Jordan D.; Ferre, Robinson M.; Boyd, Jeremy S.; Dearing, Elizabeth; McNaughton, Candace D.; Liu, Dandan; Jarrell, Kelli L.; McWade, Conor M.; Self, Wesley H.

2016-01-01

Objective Ultrasound guided intravenous catheter (USGIV) insertion is increasingly being used for administration of intravenous contrast for computed tomography (CT) scans. The goal of this investigation was to evaluate the risk of contrast extravasation among patients receiving contrast through USGIV catheters. Methods A retrospective observational study of adult patients who underwent a contrast-enhanced CT scan at a tertiary-care emergency department during a recent 64-month period was conducted. The unadjusted prevalence of contrast extravasation was compared between patients with an USGIV and those with a standard peripheral IV inserted without ultrasound. Then, a two-stage sampling design was used to select a subset of the population for a multivariable logistic regression model evaluating USGIVs as a risk factor for extravasation while adjusting for potential confounders. Results In total, 40,143 patients underwent a contrasted CT scan, including 364 (0.9%) who had contrast administered through an USGIV. Unadjusted prevalence of extravasation was 3.6% for contrast administration through USGIVs and 0.3% for standard IVs (relative risk: 13.9, 95% CI: 7.7 to 24.6). After adjustment for potential confounders, CT contrast administered through USGIVs was associated with extravasation (adjusted odds ratio: 8.6; 95% CI: 4.6, 16.2). No patients required surgical management for contrast extravasation; one patient in the standard IV group was admitted for observation due to extravasation. Conclusions Patients who received contrast for a CT scan through an USGIV had a higher risk of extravasation than those who received contrast through a standard peripheral IV. Clinicians should consider this extravasation risk when weighing the risks and benefits of a contrast-enhanced CT scan in a patient with USGIV vascular access. PMID:27151898

The relationship between fruit and vegetable intake with gastroesophageal reflux disease in Iranian adults

PubMed Central

Keshteli, Ammar Hassanzadeh; Shaabani, Pouria; Tabibian, Seyed-Reza; Saneei, Parvane; Esmaillzadeh, Ahmad; Adibi, Peyman

2017-01-01

Background: Findings from studies that investigated the relationship between fruit and vegetable intake with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) were inconsistent. We aimed to assess the relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and GERD among a large group of Iranian adults. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study on 3979 adults, a validated food frequency questionnaire was used to assess usual dietary intakes including fruits and vegetables. The presence of heartburn sometimes or more during the past 3 months were considered as having GERD. Results: The prevalence of GERD among study population was 23.9%. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, those with the highest consumption of fruits had 25% lower risk for GERD, in comparison to those with the lowest intake (odds ratio [OR] = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59–0.97). Vegetable intake was not significantly related to the risk of GERD in crude or multivariable-adjusted models. However, participants with the highest intake of fruits and vegetables had 33% lower risk of GERD (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.51–0.88), after adjustment for confounders. Women with the highest fruit and vegetable intake had 36% lower risk for GERD (OR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45–0.91). Overweight/obese participants in the last tertile of fruit consumption had 42% lower risk for GERD, in comparison to the first category (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.42–0.83). Furthermore, participants with body mass index higher than 25 kg/m2 and higher intake of fruits and vegetables had 53% lower risk for GERD (OR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.32-0.69). Conclusion: We found inverse associations between fruit intake as well as fruit and vegetable intake and risk of GERD among Iranian adults. PMID:29259636

Urease activity as a risk factor for caries development in children during a three-year study period: a survival analysis approach

PubMed Central

Morou-Bermudez, E; Elias-Boneta, A; Billings, RJ; Burne, RA; Garcia-Rivas, V; Brignoni-Nazario, V; Suárez-Pérez, E

2011-01-01

Recent cross-sectional studies suggest that reduced ability to generate alkali via the urease pathway in dental plaque may be an important caries risk factor, but it has not been assessed prospectively. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effect of plaque and saliva urease activity on the risk for developing new caries over a three-year period in children. METHODS A panel of 80 children, three to six years of age at recruitment, was followed prospectively for three years. Plaque urease activity, saliva urease activity and dental caries were measured every six months. Survival analysis methodology was used to evaluate the effect of urease on caries development during the study period adjusted for gender, age, baseline caries levels, sugar consumption, amount of plaque, and mutans streptococci levels. RESULTS The risk for developing new caries increased in a dose-responsive manner with increasing levels of urease activity in saliva (adjusted HRQ4 vs. Q1: 4.98; 95%CI: 1.33, 18.69) and with decreasing urease activity in plaque (adjusted HRQ4 vs. Q1: 0.29; 95%CI: 0.11, 0.76). Multiple measurements of urease activity were conducted to overcome the variability of urease activity in this study. Baseline caries and mutans streptococci in saliva were also important predictors of caries risk. CONCLUSIONS Increased urease activity in saliva can be an indicator of increased caries risk in children, while increased urease activity in plaque may be associated with reduced caries risk. The reproducibility of urease measurements must be improved before these findings can be further tested and clinically applied. PMID:21784411

High-Risk Carotid Plaques Identified by CT-Angiogram can Predict Acute Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Mosleh, Wassim; Adib, Keenan; Natdanai, Punnanithinont; Carmona-Rubio, Andres; Karki, Roshan; Paily, Jacienta; Ahmed, Mohamed Abdel-Aal; Vakkalanka, Sujit; Madam, Narasa; Gudleski, Gregory D; Chung, Charles; Sharma, Umesh C

2016-01-01

Purpose Prior studies identified the incremental value of non-invasive imaging by CT-angiogram (CTA) to detect high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaques. Due to their superficial locations, larger calibers and motion-free imaging, the carotid arteries provide the best anatomic access for the non-invasive characterization of atherosclerotic plaques. We aim to assess the ability of predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or acute myocardial infarction (MI) based on high-risk carotid plaque features identified by CTA. Methods We retrospectively examined carotid CTAs of 492 patients that presented with acute stroke to characterize the atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid arteries and examined development of acute MI and obstructive CAD within 12-months. Carotid lesions were defined in terms of calcifications (large or speckled), presence of low-attenuation plaques, positive remodeling, and presence of napkin ring sign (NRS). Adjusted relative risks were calculated for each plaque features. Results Patients with speckled (<3mm) calcifications and/or larger calcifications on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within one year compared to patients without [adjusted RR of 7.51, 95%CI 1.26 to 73.42, P= 0.001]. Patients with low-attenuation plaques on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within one year than patients without [adjusted RR of 2.73, 95%CI 1.19 to 8.50, P= 0.021]. Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques also portended higher sensitivity (100% and 79.17%, respectively) for the development of acute MI. Conclusions Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques can predict the risk of developing acute MI and/or obstructive CAD within 12-months. Given their high sensitivity, their absence can reliably exclude 12-month events. PMID:27866279

Standing Posture at Work Does Not Increase the Risk of Varicose Veins among Health Care Providers in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Huang, Hsin-Kai; Weng, Shih-Feng; Su, Shih-Bin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Guo, How-Ran; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Lin, Hung-Jung

2017-01-01

Objective This study compared the risk of varicose veins (VV) among physicians, nonphysician health care providers (HCP), and the general population. Subjects and Methods The Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database was used to identify 28,844 physicians and 26,099 nonphysician HCP and an identical number of age- and sex-matched patients from the general population. Using logistic regression analyses, VV risks between physicians and the general population, nonphysician HCP and the general population, and physicians and nonphysician HCP, and among physician specialists were compared by tracing their medical histories between 2007 and 2011. Results Physicians and nonphysician HCP had cumulative VV incidences of 0.12% (34/28,844) and 0.13% (33/26,099), respectively, during the 5-year period, compared to that of the general population within the same 5-year period. Physicians and nonphysician HCP did not have a higher VV risk than the general population after adjusting for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) history (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53–1.40, and AOR 1.43; 95% CI 0.82–2.50, respectively). Physicians did not a have higher VV risk than nonphysician HCP (AOR 0.80; 95% CI 0.43–1.51) after adjusting for age, sex, and DVT history. Surgery had the highest incidence (0.22%) while pediatrics and emergency medicine had the lowest incidence (0%) of VV risk among physician specialists; however, the difference was not significant (all p values >0.05). Conclusion In this study, VV risk did not differ among physicians, nonphysician HCP, and the general population. PMID:28249260

Thoracic Injury Risk Curves for Rib Deflections of the SID-IIs Build Level D.

PubMed

Irwin, Annette L; Crawford, Greg; Gorman, David; Wang, Sikui; Mertz, Harold J

2016-11-01

Injury risk curves for SID-IIs thorax and abdomen rib deflections proposed for future NCAP side impact evaluations were developed from tests conducted with the SID-IIs FRG. Since the floating rib guide is known to reduce the magnitude of the peak rib deflections, injury risk curves developed from SID-IIs FRG data are not appropriate for use with SID-IIs build level D. PMHS injury data from three series of sled tests and one series of whole-body drop tests are paired with thoracic rib deflections from equivalent tests with SID-IIs build level D. Where possible, the rib deflections of SID-IIs build level D were scaled to adjust for differences in impact velocity between the PMHS and SID-IIs tests. Injury risk curves developed by the Mertz-Weber modified median rank method are presented and compared to risk curves developed by other parametric and non-parametric methods.

Spatial analysis of gastroschisis in Massachusetts and Texas

PubMed Central

Yazdy, Mahsa M.; Werler, Martha M.; Anderka, Marlene; Langlois, Peter H.; Vieira, Veronica M.

2014-01-01

Purpose Previous research has suggested gastroschisis, a congenital malformation, may be linked to environmental or infectious factors and cases can occur in clusters. The objective of this study was to identify geographic areas of elevated gastroschisis risk. Methods Cases of gastroschisis were identified from birth defect registries in Massachusetts and Texas. Random samples of live births were selected as controls. Generalized additive models were used to create a continuous map surface of odds ratios (OR) by smoothing over latitude and longitude. Maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, cigarette smoking, and insurance status (MA only) were assessed for confounding. We used permutation tests to identify statistically significant areas of increased risk. Results An area of increased risk was identified in north-central Massachusetts, but was not significant after adjustment (p-value=0.07; OR=2.0). In Texas, two statistically significant areas of increased risk were identified after adjustment (p-value=0.02; OR=1.3 and 1.2). Texas had sufficient data to assess the combination of space and time, which identified an increased risk in 2003 and 2004. Conclusion This study suggests there were areas of elevated gastroschisis risk in Massachusetts and Texas that cannot be explained by the risk factors we assessed. Additional exploration of underlying artifactual, environmental, infectious, or behavioral factors may further our understanding of gastroschisis. PMID:25454289

45 CFR 153.740 - Failure to comply with HHS-operated risk adjustment and reinsurance data requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... adjustment data submission and data storage requirements set forth in §§ 153.610 through 153.630, HHS may... adjustment and reinsurance data requirements. 153.740 Section 153.740 Public Welfare Department of Health and... CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT Distributed Data Collection for HHS-Operated...

Short-term Risk of Revision THA in the Medicare Population Has Not Improved With Time.

PubMed

Bozic, Kevin J; Ong, Kevin; Kurtz, Steven; Lau, Edmund; Vail, Thomas P; Rubash, Harry; Berry, Daniel

2016-01-01

Advances in surgical technique, implant design, and clinical care pathways have resulted in higher expectations for improved clinical outcomes after primary THA; however, despite these advances, it is unclear whether the risk of revision THA actually has decreased with time. Understanding trends in short- and mid-term risks of revision will be helpful in directing clinical, research, and policy efforts to improve THA outcomes. We therefore asked (1) whether there have been changes in overall short- and mid-term risks of revision THA among patients in the Medicare population who underwent primary THA between 1998 and 2010; and (2) whether there are different demographic factors associated with short- and mid- term risks of revision THA. Using the Medicare 5% national sample database, patients who underwent primary THA between 1998 and 2010 followed by subsequent revision through 2011 were identified by ICD-9-CM procedure codes 81.51 and 81.53/80.05/00.70-00.73, respectively. This dataset included a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries based on their social security number. Only patients with minimum 1-year followup after primary THA were included in our analysis. A total of 64,260 patients who underwent primary THA were identified from the 1998 to 2010 Medicare 5% dataset. Eighty-eight percent of the patients had 1-year followup providing a final study cohort of 56,700 patients. The risk of revision was evaluated at 1, 3, 5, and 7 years. Multivariate Cox regression was used to evaluate temporal trends in revision risk using two methods to account for time effects with periods 1998 to 2002, 2003 to 2007, and 2008 to 2010 for the index year of primary THA, and individual year of index of primary THA as independent variables. The analysis adjusted for patient age, sex, race, census region, Charlson score, and socioeconomic status. The 7-year crude risk of revision THA declined from 7.10% in 1998 to 2002 to 6.09% in 2008 to 2010, representing a 14.4% overall reduction in adjusted risk of revision (p = 0.0058; 95% CI, 4.4%-23%). Similarly, the 5-year crude risk of revision THA declined from 5.96% in 1998 to 2002 to 5.11% in 2008 to 2010, representing a 14.2% overall reduction in adjusted risk of revision (p = 0.0069; 95% CI, 4.1%-23%). However, the adjusted risk of revision THA at 3 years was not different from 1998 to 2002 (4.70%) and 2008 to 2010 (4.03%; p = 0.1176). Similarly, the adjusted risk of revision at 1 year did not differ from 1998 to 2002 (2.83%) and 2008 to 2010 (2.42%; p = 0.3386). Patients with more comorbidities had a greater adjusted risk of revision (p < 0.001) at all times: 94% (95% CI, 58%-138%) and 56% (95% CI, 33%-84%) at 1 year and 7 years, respectively, for Charlson score of 5+ vs 0). Although the mid-term (5 and 7 years) risk of revision THA has decreased during the past 14 years among Medicare beneficiaries who underwent primary THA, the short-term risk has not. These findings suggest that greater clinical, research, and policy emphasis is needed to identify potentially avoidable causes of early failure after primary THA in patients in the Medicare population, and multistakeholder solutions are needed to optimize short-term outcomes. Level III, therapeutic study.

Advancing the Hypothesis that Geographic Variations in Risk Factors Contribute Relatively Little to Observed Geographic Variations in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Howard, George; Cushman, Mary; Prineas, Ronald J.; Howard, Virginia J.; Moy, Claudia S.; Sullivan, Lisa M.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; McClure, Leslie A.; Pulley, Lea Vonne; Safford, Monika M.

2009-01-01

Purpose Geographic variation in risk factors may underlie geographic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality. Methods Framingham CHD Risk Score (FCRS) and Stroke Risk Score (FSRS) were calculated for 25,770 stroke-free and 22,247 CHD-free participants from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort. Vital statistics provided age-adjusted CHD and stroke mortality rates. In an ecologic analysis, the age-adjusted, race-sex weighted, average state-level risk factor levels were compared to state-level mortality rates. Results There was no relationship between CHD and stroke mortality rates (r = 0.04; p = 0.78), but there was between CHD and stroke risk scores at the individual (r = 0.68; p < 0.0001) and state (r = 0.64, p < 0.0001) level. There was a stronger (p < 0.0001) association between state-level FCRS and state-level CHD mortality (r = 0.28, p = 0.18), than between FSRS and stroke mortality (r = 0.12, p = 0.56). Conclusions Weak associations between CHD and stroke mortality and strong associations between CHD and stroke risk scores suggest geographic variation in risk factors may not underlie geographic variations in stroke and CHD mortality. The relationship between risk factor scores and mortality was stronger for CHD than stroke. PMID:19285103

The QT Interval and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

Mandyam, Mala C.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Alonso, Alvaro; Dewland, Thomas A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Cummings, Steven R.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Chaitman, Bernard R.; Stocke, Karen; Applegate, William B.; Arking, Dan E.; Butler, Javed; Loehr, Laura R.; Magnani, Jared W.; Murphy, Rachel A.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Newman, Anne B.; Marcus, Gregory M.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Abnormal atrial repolarization is important in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), but no direct measurement is available in clinical medicine. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the QT interval, a marker of ventricular repolarization, could be used to predict incident AF. METHODS We examined a prolonged QT corrected by the Framingham formula (QTFram) as a predictor of incident AF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study were used for validation. Secondary predictors included QT duration as a continuous variable, a short QT interval, and QT intervals corrected by other formulae. RESULTS Among 14,538 ARIC participants, a prolonged QTFram predicted a roughly two-fold increased risk of AF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42–2.96, p<0.001). No substantive attenuation was observed after adjustment for age, race, sex, study center, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, and heart failure. The findings were validated in CHS and Health ABC and were similar across various QT correction methods. Also in ARIC, each 10-ms increase in QTFram was associated with an increased unadjusted (HR 1.14, 95%CI 1.10–1.17, p<0.001) and adjusted (HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.07–1.14, p<0.001) risk of AF. Findings regarding a short QT were inconsistent across cohorts. CONCLUSIONS A prolonged QT interval is associated with an increased risk of incident AF. PMID:23872693

The Dutch Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratio (HSMR) method and cardiac surgery: benchmarking in a national cohort using hospital administration data versus a clinical database

PubMed Central

Siregar, S; Pouw, M E; Moons, K G M; Versteegh, M I M; Bots, M L; van der Graaf, Y; Kalkman, C J; van Herwerden, L A; Groenwold, R H H

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the accuracy of data from hospital administration databases and a national clinical cardiac surgery database and to compare the performance of the Dutch hospital standardised mortality ratio (HSMR) method and the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, for the purpose of benchmarking of mortality across hospitals. Methods Information on all patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2010 in 10 centres was extracted from The Netherlands Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery database and the Hospital Discharge Registry. The number of cardiac surgery interventions was compared between both databases. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation and hospital standardised mortality ratio models were updated in the study population and compared using the C-statistic, calibration plots and the Brier-score. Results The number of cardiac surgery interventions performed could not be assessed using the administrative database as the intervention code was incorrect in 1.4–26.3%, depending on the type of intervention. In 7.3% no intervention code was registered. The updated administrative model was inferior to the updated clinical model with respect to discrimination (c-statistic of 0.77 vs 0.85, p<0.001) and calibration (Brier Score of 2.8% vs 2.6%, p<0.001, maximum score 3.0%). Two average performing hospitals according to the clinical model became outliers when benchmarking was performed using the administrative model. Conclusions In cardiac surgery, administrative data are less suitable than clinical data for the purpose of benchmarking. The use of either administrative or clinical risk-adjustment models can affect the outlier status of hospitals. Risk-adjustment models including procedure-specific clinical risk factors are recommended. PMID:24334377

Chlamydia testing and diagnosis following initiation of long-acting reversible contraception: A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rose, Sally B; Garrett, Susan M; Stanley, James; Pullon, Susan R H

2017-12-01

Long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) effectively protects against pregnancy but provides no protection against sexually transmitted infections (STIs). To compare rates of chlamydia testing and diagnosis for women initiating long-acting versus oral contraception. Retrospective cohort study involving data collection for 6160 women initiating post-abortion contraception at a large New Zealand regional public hospital abortion clinic (2009-2012), with chlamydia testing data obtained from the local laboratory during two-year follow up. Negative binomial regression modelling examined the effect of contraceptive method on two outcome measures: chlamydia testing and chlamydia diagnosis (adjusting for potential covariates of age, ethnicity, past chlamydia infection, pregnancy history) in year one and two of follow up. Two thousand seven hundred and twenty nine women (44%) received a LARC and 1764 (28.6%) were prescribed oral contraception. Adjusted testing rates differed by contraceptive method only in year one (P < 0.01): with higher rates among copper intrauterine device users (relative risk (RR) 1.2, 95% CI 1.06-1.35), and lower rates for implant users (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.99) compared with oral contraceptive users (reference group). No significant differences were observed in chlamydia diagnosis rates by contraceptive method (P > 0.05). Younger age, past chlamydia infection, Maori and Pacific ethnicity were associated with higher rates of chlamydia diagnosis (P < 0.01). Known STI-related risk factors (age, ethnicity, past infection) but not contraceptive method were independently related to rates of subsequent chlamydia diagnosis. This suggests that increased LARC uptake would not occur at the expense of chlamydia control. Regular screening and risk reduction advice (including condom use) are important chlamydia control measures for at-risk groups. © 2017 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of trichloroethylene in rats for estimation of internal dose

EPA Science Inventory

Potential human health risk from chemical exposure must often be assessed for conditions for which suitable human or animal data are not available, requiring extrapolation across duration and concentration. The default method for exposure-duration adjustment is based on Haber's r...

Sleep Disruptions and Emotional Insecurity Are Pathways of Risk for Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

El-Sheikh, Mona; Buckhalt, Joseph A.; Cummings, E. Mark; Keller, Peggy

2007-01-01

Background: Sleep problems are prevalent in American children. A critical need is to identify sources and processes related to sleep disruptions and their sequelae. We examined a model linking parental marital conflict and children's emotional insecurity, sleep disruptions, and their adjustment and academic problems. Method: One hundred and…

Paternal Risk Factors for Oral Clefts in Northern Africans, Southeast Asians, and Central Americans

PubMed Central

Ly, Stephanie; Burg, Madeleine L.; Ihenacho, Ugonna; Brindopke, Frederick; Auslander, Allyn; Magee, Kathleen S.; Sanchez-Lara, Pedro A.; Nguyen, Thi-Hai-Duc; Nguyen, Viet; Tangco, Maria Irene; Hernandez, Angela Rose; Giron, Melissa; Mahmoudi, Fouzia J.; DeClerck, Yves A.; Magee, William P.; Figueiredo, Jane C.

2017-01-01

While several studies have investigated maternal exposures as risk factors for oral clefts, few have examined paternal factors. We conducted an international multi-centered case–control study to better understand paternal risk exposures for oral clefts (cases = 392 and controls = 234). Participants were recruited from local hospitals and oral cleft repair surgical missions in Vietnam, the Philippines, Honduras, and Morocco. Questionnaires were administered to fathers and mothers separately to elicit risk factor and family history data. Associations between paternal exposures and risk of clefts were assessed using logistic regression adjusting for potential confounders. A father’s personal/family history of clefts was associated with significantly increased risk (adjusted OR: 4.77; 95% CI: 2.41–9.45). No other significant associations were identified for other suspected risk factors, including education (none/primary school v. university adjusted OR: 1.29; 95% CI: 0.74–2.24), advanced paternal age (5-year adjusted OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.84–1.16), or pre-pregnancy tobacco use (adjusted OR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.67–1.37). Although sample size was limited, significantly decreased risks were observed for fathers with selected occupations. Further research is needed to investigate paternal environmental exposures as cleft risk factors. PMID:28629204

The Prevalence of and Risk Factors Associated with Musculoskeletal Disorders among Sonographers in Central China: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Feng, Qingmin; Liu, Shenglin; Yang, Lei; Xie, Mingxing

2016-01-01

Objective Studies from industrialized countries show that musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) occur commonly in sonographers. However, little is known about sonographers in China, where the awareness of ergonomics and MSD, workload, and available equipment/facilities may differ. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of MSD and associated risk factors in sonographers in central China. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 381 sonographers from 14 randomly selected tertiary hospitals in Hubei province, central China. Musculoskeletal symptoms (using the Nordic Questionnaire) and risk factors (mostly derived from the Health Benefit Trust survey instrument and the Dutch Musculoskeletal Questionnaire) were recorded. Multivariate logistic regression was used to quantify associations between risk factors and MSD. Results The 12-month period prevalence of MSD was 98.3%, being highest in the neck (93.5%) and shoulder (92.2%), followed by the lower back (83.2%), wrist/hand, upper back, and elbow. Factors contributing to neck pain were psychological fatigue, shoulder abduction and trunk bend-and-twist posture. Height-adjustable tables and chairs were protective factors. Shoulder pain was associated with female sex, health status, mental stress, shoulder abduction, and trunk bend-and-twist posture. Height-adjustable chairs and the awareness of adjusting the workstation before scanning were protective factors. Elbow pain was associated with health status and height-adjustable tables. Wrist/hand pain was associated with female sex, bending the wrist, and working with obese patients. Upper back pain was associated with shoulder abduction, height-adjustable chairs, and device location. Lower back pain was associated with the number of scans performed per day, awkward postures, bending the trunk, twisting or bending the neck forward, and using a footrest. Conclusions This study suggests a high prevalence of MSD in sonographers in central China. Hence, it is necessary to improve the awareness of MSD by training, and the ergonomics of their current work environment by addressing physical workload, and psychological and equipment/facility-related factors. PMID:27695095

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; standards related to reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. Final rule.

PubMed

2012-03-23

This final rule implements standards for States related to reinsurance and risk adjustment, and for health insurance issuers related to reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment consistent with title I of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, referred to collectively as the Affordable Care Act. These programs will mitigate the impact of potential adverse selection and stabilize premiums in the individual and small group markets as insurance reforms and the Affordable Insurance Exchanges ("Exchanges") are implemented, starting in 2014. The transitional State-based reinsurance program serves to reduce uncertainty by sharing risk in the individual market through making payments for high claims costs for enrollees. The temporary Federally administered risk corridors program serves to protect against uncertainty in rate setting by qualified health plans sharing risk in losses and gains with the Federal government. The permanent State-based risk adjustment program provides payments to health insurance issuers that disproportionately attract high-risk populations (such as individuals with chronic conditions).

The "Nursing Home Compare" measure of urinary/fecal incontinence: cross-sectional variation, stability over time, and the impact of case mix.

PubMed

Li, Yue; Schnelle, John; Spector, William D; Glance, Laurent G; Mukamel, Dana B

2010-02-01

To assess the impact of facility case mix on cross-sectional variations and short-term stability of the "Nursing Home Compare" incontinence quality measure (QM) and to determine whether multivariate risk adjustment can minimize such impacts. Retrospective analyses of the 2005 national minimum data set (MDS) that included approximately 600,000 long-term care residents in over 10,000 facilities in each quarterly sample. Mixed logistic regression was used to construct the risk-adjusted QM (nonshrinkage estimator). Facility-level ordinary least-squares models and adjusted R(2) were used to estimate the impact of case mix on cross-sectional and short-term longitudinal variations of currently published and risk-adjusted QMs. At least 50 percent of the cross-sectional variation and 25 percent of the short-term longitudinal variation of the published QM are explained by facility case mix. In contrast, the cross-sectional and short-term longitudinal variations of the risk-adjusted QM are much less susceptible to case-mix variations (adjusted R(2)<0.10), even for facilities with more extreme or more unstable outcome. Current "Nursing Home Compare" incontinence QM reflects considerable case-mix variations across facilities and over time, and therefore it may be biased. This issue can be largely addressed by multivariate risk adjustment using risk factors available in the MDS.

Dietary Flavonoid Intake Reduces the Risk of Head and Neck but Not Esophageal or Gastric Cancer in US Men and Women.

PubMed

Sun, Lucy; Subar, Amy F; Bosire, Claire; Dawsey, Sanford M; Kahle, Lisa L; Zimmerman, Thea P; Abnet, Christian C; Heller, Ruth; Graubard, Barry I; Cook, Michael B; Petrick, Jessica L

2017-09-01

Background: Flavonoids are bioactive polyphenolic compounds found in fruits, vegetables, and beverages of plant origin. Previous studies have shown that flavonoid intake reduces the risk of certain cancers; however, few studies to date have examined associations of flavonoids with upper gastrointestinal cancers or used prospective cohorts. Objective: Our study examined the association between intake of flavonoids (anthocyanidins, flavan-3-ols, flavanones, flavones, flavonols, and isoflavones) and risk of head and neck, esophageal, and gastric cancers. Methods: The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study is a prospective cohort study that consists of 469,008 participants. Over a mean 12-y follow-up, 2453 head and neck (including 1078 oral cavity, 424 pharyngeal, and 817 laryngeal), 1165 esophageal (890 adenocarcinoma and 275 squamous cell carcinoma), and 1297 gastric (625 cardia and 672 noncardia) cancer cases were identified. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate HRs and CIs for the associations between flavonoid intake assessed at study baseline and cancer outcomes. For 56 hypotheses examined, P -trend values were adjusted using the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure for false discovery rate control. Results: The highest quintile of total flavonoid intake was associated with a 24% lower risk of head and neck cancer (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.86; BH-adjusted 95% CI: 0.63, 0.91; P -trend = 0.02) compared with the lowest quintile. Notably, anthocyanidins were associated with a 28% lower risk of head and neck cancer (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.62, 0.82; BH-adjusted 95% CI: 0.59, 0.87; P -trend = 0.0005), and flavanones were associated with a 22% lower risk of head and neck cancer (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.89; BH-adjusted 95% CI: 0.64, 0.94; P -trend: 0.02). No associations between flavonoid intake and risk of esophageal or gastric cancers were found. Conclusions: Our results indicate that flavonoid intake is associated with lower head and neck cancer risk. These associations suggest a protective effect of dietary flavonoids on head and neck cancer risk, and thus potential as a risk reduction strategy. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries

PubMed Central

Sasieni, P D; Shelton, J; Ormiston-Smith, N; Thomson, C S; Silcocks, P B

2011-01-01

Background: The ‘lifetime risk' of cancer is generally estimated by combining current incidence rates with current all-cause mortality (‘current probability' method) rather than by describing the experience of a birth cohort. As individuals may get more than one type of cancer, what is generally estimated is the average (mean) number of cancers over a lifetime. This is not the same as the probability of getting cancer. Methods: We describe a method for estimating lifetime risk that corrects for the inclusion of multiple primary cancers in the incidence rates routinely published by cancer registries. The new method applies cancer incidence rates to the estimated probability of being alive without a previous cancer. The new method is illustrated using data from the Scottish Cancer Registry and is compared with ‘gold-standard' estimates that use (unpublished) data on first primaries. Results: The effect of this correction is to make the estimated ‘lifetime risk' smaller. The new estimates are extremely similar to those obtained using incidence based on first primaries. The usual ‘current probability' method considerably overestimates the lifetime risk of all cancers combined, although the correction for any single cancer site is minimal. Conclusion: Estimation of the lifetime risk of cancer should either be based on first primaries or should use the new method. PMID:21772332

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Prevention of type II diabetes mellitus in Qatar: Who is at risk?

PubMed Central

Christos, Paul J; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Ali Zirie, Mahmoud; Deleu, Dirk; Mushlin, Alvin I

2014-01-01

Background: Type II diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the leading chronic diseases in Qatar as well as worldwide. However, the risk factors for DM in Qatar and their prevalence are not well understood. We conducted a case-control study with the specific aim of estimating, based on data from outpatients with DM in Qatar (cases) and outpatient/inpatient controls, the association between demographic/lifestyle factors and DM. Methods: A total of 459 patients with DM from Hamad General Hospital (HGH) outpatient adult diabetes clinics, and 342 control patients from various outpatient clinics and inpatient departments within Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC) (years 2006–2008), were recruited. The association between risk factors and DM was evaluated using bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses. In addition to odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), we estimated the population attributable risk fractions for the DM demographic/lifestyle risk factors. Results: Qatari nationality was the strongest risk factor for DM (adjusted OR = 5.5; 95% CI = 3.5–8.6; p < 0.0001), followed by higher monthly income (defined as ≥ 3000 Qatari Riyals, adjusted OR = 5.1; 95% CI = 3.0–8.7; p < 0.0001), age >65 years (adjusted OR = 3.3; 95% CI = 0.9–11.4; p = 0.06), male gender (adjusted OR = 2.9; 95% CI = 1.8-4.8; p < 0.0001), obesity (BMI ≥ 30, adjusted OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.5-3.2; p < 0.0001), no college education (adjusted OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2–2.6; p = 0.009), and no daily vigorous/moderate activity (adjusted OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 0.9–2.3; p = 0.12). Among Qatari nationals, obesity was found to be the main risk factor for DM (unadjusted OR = 3.0; 95% CI = 1.6–5.6; p < 0.0001), followed by no college education (unadjusted OR = 2.7; 95% CI = 1.5–5.1; p = 0.001), while consanguinity did not appear to play a major role in predicting DM (unadjusted OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 0.8–2.8; p = 0.21). Our findings further suggested that eliminating obesity and improving access to education may reduce DM cases by up to one third for the population at large (31.7% and 26.8%, respectively) and up to half (46.9% and 49.3%, respectively) for Qatari nationals. Promoting physical activity may reduce the burden of DM by up to 9.4% for the population at large and up to 17.3% for Qatari nationals. Conclusions: Demographic/lifestyle factors appear to be the main risk factors for the high DM levels observed in Qatar, with a contribution that outweighs that of genetic risk factors. While further evaluation of DM risk factors among the Qatari population (as opposed to the resident population) is important and of interest, these findings highlight the need to focus short-term DM interventions on addressing demographic/lifestyle risk factors to achieve substantial and timely declines in DM levels. PMID:25745596

Prior health expenditures and risk sharing with insurers competing on quality.

PubMed

Marchand, Maurice; Sato, Motohiro; Schokkaert, Erik

2003-01-01

Insurers can exploit the heterogeneity within risk-adjustment classes to select the good risks because they have more information than the regulator on the expected expenditures of individual insurees. To counteract this cream skimming, mixed systems combining capitation and cost-based payments have been adopted that do not, however, generally use the past expenditures of insurees as a risk adjuster. In this article, two symmetric insurers compete for clients by differentiating the quality of service offered to them according to some private information about their risk. In our setting it is always welfare improving to use prior expenditures as a risk adjuster.

Prevalence of risk factors associated with human papillomavirus infection in women living with HIV

PubMed Central

Hankins, C; Coutlée, F; Lapointe, N; Simard, P; Tran, T; Samson, J; Hum, L

1999-01-01

BACKGROUND: Concurrent infection with HIV and human papillomavirus (HPV) in women is associated with increased rates of cervical dysplasia and shorter survival following the development of cervical cancer. The authors examined risk factors for HPV infection at study entry in HIV-positive women enrolled in the Canadian Women's HIV Study, a prospective open cohort study. METHODS: Subjects eligible for this analysis included the 375 HIV-positive women in the Canadian Women's HIV Study for whom HPV test results were available. Questionnaires on behavioural and clinical information, Pap smears, cervicovaginal lavage specimens and vaginal tampon specimens for HPV detection and typing by polymerase chain reaction were obtained at study entry. RESULTS: Overall, 67.2% (252/375) of the women were HPV-positive; the global prevalence of intermediate- and high-risk oncogenic HPV types was 49.1% (184/375). Women with squamous cell dysplasia (32/294) were more likely to have HPV infection than those without dysplasia (90.6% v. 62.6%; p = 0.002). Multivariate logistic regression analysis, with adjustment for number of lifetime partners and history of STD, revealed that the following risk factors were independently associated with HPV infection: CD4 count of less than 0.20 x 10(9)/L (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.99 [95% confidence interval (Cl) 1.17-3.37 (p = 0.011)]), non-white race (adjusted OR 2.00 [95% Cl 1.17-3.42 (p = 0.011)]), inconsistent condom use in the 6 months before study entry (adjusted OR 2.02 [95% Cl 1.16-3.50 (p = 0.013)]), and lower age, with women age 30-39 years (adjusted OR 0.51 [95% Cl 0.30-0.87 (p = 0.013)]) and age 40 years or older (adjusted OR 0.52 [95% Cl 0.26-1.01 (p = 0.052)]) compared with women less than 30 years of age. INTERPRETATION: Close monitoring for HPV-related effects is warranted in all HIV-positive women, particularly younger, non-white women who do not always use condoms. Counselling for women living with HIV, particularly younger women, should emphasize the importance of regular cytological screening, with increasing frequency as the CD4 count falls. PMID:9951439

A comparison of methods for adjusting biomarkers of iron, zinc, and selenium status for the effect of inflammation in an older population: a case for interleukin 6.

PubMed

MacDonell, Sue O; Miller, Jody C; Harper, Michelle J; Reid, Malcolm R; Haszard, Jillian J; Gibson, Rosalind S; Houghton, Lisa A

2018-05-14

Older people are at risk of micronutrient deficiencies, which can be under- or overestimated in the presence of inflammation. Several methods have been proposed to adjust for the effect of inflammation; however, to our knowledge, none have been investigated in older adults in whom chronic inflammation is common. We investigated the influence of various inflammation-adjustment methods on micronutrient biomarkers associated with anemia in older people living in aged-care facilities in New Zealand. Blood samples were collected from 289 New Zealand aged-care residents aged >65 y. Serum ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), total body iron (TBI), plasma zinc, and selenium as well as the inflammatory markers high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and interleukin 6 (IL-6) were measured. Four adjustment methods were applied to micronutrient concentrations: 1) internal correction factors based on stages of inflammation defined by CRP and AGP, 2) external correction factors derived from the literature, 3) a regression correction model in which reference CRP and AGP were set to the maximum of the lowest decile, and 4) a regression correction model in which reference IL-6 was set to the maximum of the lowest decile. Forty percent of participants had elevated concentrations of CRP, AGP, or both, and 37% of participants had higher than normal concentrations of IL-6. Adjusted geometric mean values for serum ferritin, sTfR, and TBI were significantly lower (P < 0.001), and plasma zinc and selenium were significantly higher (P < 0.001), than the unadjusted values regardless of the method applied. The greatest inflammation adjustment was observed with the regression correction that used IL-6. Subsequently, the prevalence of zinc and selenium deficiency decreased (-13% and -14%, respectively; P < 0.001), whereas iron deficiency remained unaffected. Adjustment for inflammation should be considered when evaluating micronutrient status in this aging population group; however, the approaches used require further investigation, particularly the influence of adjustment for IL-6.

Race and Survival Following Brachytherapy-Based Treatment for Men With Localized or Locally Advanced Adenocarcinoma of the Prostate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winkfield, Karen M., E-mail: kwinkfield@partners.org; Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Chen Minghui

2011-11-15

Purpose: We investigated whether race was associated with risk of death following brachytherapy-based treatment for localized prostate cancer, adjusting for age, cardiovascular comorbidity, treatment, and established prostate cancer prognostic factors. Methods: The study cohort was composed of 5,360 men with clinical stage T1-3N0M0 prostate cancer who underwent brachytherapy-based treatment at 20 centers within the 21st Century Oncology consortium. Cox regression multivariable analysis was used to evaluate the risk of death in African-American and Hispanic men compared to that in Caucasian men, adjusting for age, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason score, clinical T stage, year and type of treatment, medianmore » income, and cardiovascular comorbidities. Results: After a median follow-up of 3 years, there were 673 deaths. African-American and Hispanic races were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (ACM) (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.77 and 1.79; 95% confidence intervals, 1.3-2.5 and 1.2-2.7; p < 0.001 and p = 0.005, respectively). Other factors significantly associated with an increased risk of death included age (p < 0.001), Gleason score of 8 to 10 (p = 0.04), year of brachytherapy (p < 0.001), and history of myocardial infarction treated with stent or coronary artery bypass graft (p < 0.001). Conclusions: After adjustment for prostate cancer prognostic factors, age, income level, and revascularized cardiovascular comorbidities, African-American and Hispanic races were associated with higher ACM in men with prostate cancer. Additional causative factors need to be identified.« less

Suicide Attempts and Childhood Maltreatment Among Street Youth: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Hadland, Scott E.; Wood, Evan; Dong, Huiru; Marshall, Brandon D.L.; Kerr, Thomas; Montaner, Julio S.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although suicide is a known leading cause of death among street youth, few prospective studies have explored childhood experiences as risk factors for future suicide attempt in this population. We examined the risk of attempted suicide in relation to childhood maltreatment among street youth. METHODS: From September 2005 to November 2013, data were collected from the At Risk Youth Study (ARYS), a prospective cohort of street youth in Vancouver, Canada. Inclusion criteria were age 14 to 26 years, past-month illicit drug use, and street involvement. Participants completed the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, an instrument measuring self-reported sexual, physical, and emotional abuse and physical and emotional neglect. Suicide attempts were assessed semiannually. Using Cox regression, we examined the association between the 5 types of maltreatment and suicide attempts. RESULTS: Of 660 participants, 68.2% were male and 24.6% were Aboriginal. Median age was 21.5 years. The prevalence of moderate to extreme childhood maltreatment ranged from 16.8% (sexual abuse) to 45.2% (emotional abuse). Participants contributed 1841 person-years, with suicide attempts reported by 35 (5.3%) individuals (crude incidence density: 1.9 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4–2.6 per 100 person-years). In adjusted analyses, types of maltreatment associated with suicide attempts included physical abuse (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 4.47; 95% CI: 2.12–9.42), emotional abuse (adjusted HR: 4.92; 95% CI: 2.11–11.5), and emotional neglect (adjusted HR: 3.08; 95% CI: 1.05–9.03). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood maltreatment is associated with subsequent risk of suicidal behavior among street youth. Suicide prevention efforts should be targeted toward this marginalized population and delivered from a trauma-informed perspective. PMID:26240210

Comparing the performance of English mental health providers in achieving patient outcomes.

PubMed

Moran, Valerie; Jacobs, Rowena

2015-09-01

Evidence on provider payment systems that incorporate patient outcomes is limited for mental health care. In England, funding for mental health care services is changing to a prospective payment system with a future objective of linking some part of provider payment to outcomes. This research examines performance of mental health providers offering hospital and community services, in order to investigate if some are delivering better outcomes. Outcomes are measured using the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) - a clinician-rated routine outcome measure (CROM) mandated for national use. We use data from the Mental Health Minimum Data Set (MHMDS) - a dataset on specialist mental health care with national coverage - for the years 2011/12 and 2012/13 with a final estimation sample of 305,960 observations with follow-up HoNOS scores. A hierarchical ordered probit model is used and outcomes are risk adjusted with independent variables reflecting demographic, need, severity and social indicators. A hierarchical linear model is also estimated with the follow-up total HoNOS score as the dependent variable and the baseline total HoNOS score included as a risk-adjuster. Provider performance is captured by a random effect that is quantified using Empirical Bayes methods. We find that worse outcomes are associated with severity and better outcomes with older age and social support. After adjusting outcomes for various risk factors, variations in performance are still evident across providers. This suggests that if the intention to link some element of provider payment to outcomes becomes a reality, some providers may gain financially whilst others may lose. The paper contributes to the limited literature on risk adjustment of outcomes and performance assessment of providers in mental health in the context of prospective activity-based payment systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intelligence and socioeconomic position in childhood in relation to frailty and cumulative allostatic load in later life: the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936

PubMed Central

Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J

2016-01-01

Background Information on childhood determinants of frailty or allostatic load in later life is sparse. We investigated whether lower intelligence and greater socioeconomic disadvantage in childhood increased the risk of frailty and higher allostatic load, and explored the mediating roles of adult socioeconomic position, educational attainment and health behaviours. Methods Participants were 876 members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 whose intelligence was assessed at age 11. At age 70, frailty was assessed using the Fried criteria. Measurements were made of fibrinogen, triglyceride, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albumin, glycated haemoglobin, C reactive protein, body mass index and blood pressure, from which an allostatic load score was calculated. Results In sex-adjusted analyses, lower intelligence and lower social class in childhood were associated with an increased risk of frailty: relative risks (95% CIs) were 1.57 (1.21 to 2.03) for a SD decrease in intelligence and 1.48 (1.12 to 1.96) for a category decrease in social class. In the fully adjusted model, both associations ceased to be significant: relative risks were 1.13 (0.83 to 1.54) and 1.19 (0.86 to 1.61), respectively. Educational attainment had a significant mediating effect. Lower childhood intelligence in childhood, but not social class, was associated with higher allostatic load. The sex-adjusted coefficient for allostatic load for a SD decrease in intelligence was 0.10 (0.07 to 0.14). In the fully adjusted model, this association was attenuated but remained significant (0.05 (0.01 to 0.09)). Conclusions Further research will need to investigate the mechanisms whereby lower childhood intelligence is linked to higher allostatic load in later life. PMID:26700299

Association Between Sitting Time and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors After Adjustment for Cardiorespiratory Fitness, Cooper Center Longitudinal Study, 2010–2013

PubMed Central

Shuval, Kerem; Balasubramanian, Bijal A.; Kendzor, Darla E.; Radford, Nina B.; DeFina, Laura F.; Gabriel, Kelley Pettee

2016-01-01

Introduction Objective estimates, based on waist-worn accelerometers, indicate that adults spend over half their day (55%) in sedentary behaviors. Our study examined the association between sitting time and cardiometabolic risk factors after adjustment for cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). Methods A cross-sectional analysis was conducted with 4,486 men and 1,845 women who reported daily estimated sitting time, had measures for adiposity, blood lipids, glucose, and blood pressure, and underwent maximal stress testing. We used a modeling strategy using logistic regression analysis to assess CRF as a potential effect modifier and to control for potential confounding effects of CRF. Results Men who sat almost all of the time (about 100%) were more likely to be obese whether defined by waist girth (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.25–5.47) or percentage of body fat (OR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.35–8.20) than were men who sat almost none of the time (about 0%). Sitting time was not significantly associated with other cardiometabolic risk factors after adjustment for CRF level. For women, no significant associations between sitting time and cardiometabolic risk factors were observed after adjustment for CRF and other covariates. Conclusion As health professionals struggle to find ways to combat obesity and its health effects, reducing sitting time can be an initial step in a total physical activity plan that includes strategies to reduce sedentary time through increases in physical activity among men. In addition, further research is needed to elucidate the relationships between sitting time and CRF for women as well as the underlying mechanisms involved in these relationships. PMID:28033088

Risk-adjusted clinical outcomes in patients enrolled in a bloodless program

PubMed Central

Frank, Steven M.; Wick, Elizabeth C.; Dezern, Amy E.; Ness, Paul M.; Wasey, Jack O.; Pippa, Andrew C.; Dackiw, Elizabeth; Resar, Linda M.S.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Although clinical outcomes have been reported for patients who do not accept allogeneic blood transfusion (ABT), many previous studies lack a control group, fail to use risk adjustment, and focus exclusively on cardiac surgery. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS We report a risk-adjusted, propensity score–matched, retrospective case-control study of clinical outcomes for inpatients who did not accept ABT (bloodless, n = 294) and those who did accept ABT (control, n = 1157). Multidisciplinary specialized care was rendered to the bloodless patients to conserve blood and optimize clinical outcomes. Differences in hemoglobin (Hb), mortality, five morbid outcomes, and hospital charges and costs were compared. Subgroups of medical and surgical patients were analyzed, and independent predictors of outcome were determined by multivariate analysis. RESULTS Overall, mortality was lower in the bloodless group (0.7%) than in the control group (2.7%; p = 0.046), primarily attributed to the surgical subgroup. After risk adjustment, bloodless care was not an independent predictor of the composite adverse outcome (death or any morbid event; p = 0.91; odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.68–1.53). Discharge Hb concentrations were similar in the bloodless (10.8 ± 2.7 g/dL) and control (10.9 ± 2.3 g/dL) groups (p = 0.42). Total and direct hospital costs were 12% (p = 0.02) and 18% (p = 0.02) less, respectively, in the bloodless patients, a difference attributed to the surgical subgroup. CONCLUSIONS Using appropriate blood conservation measures for patients who do not accept ABT results in similar or better outcomes and is associated with equivalent or lower costs. This specialized care may be beneficial even for those patients who accept ABT. PMID:24942198

Comparison of Ischemic Stroke Outcomes and, Patient and Hospital Characteristics by Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status

PubMed Central

Hanchate, Amresh D.; Schwamm, Lee H.; Huang, Wei-Jie; Hylek, Elaine

2013-01-01

Background and Purpose Current literature provides mixed evidence on disparities by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) in discharge outcomes following hospitalization for acute ischemic stroke. Using comprehensive data from eight states, we sought to compare inpatient mortality and length of stay (LOS) by race/ethnicity and SES. Methods We examined all 2007 hospitalizations for acute ischemic stroke in all non-Federal acute care hospitals in AZ, CA, FL, MA, NJ, NY, PA and TX. Population was stratified by race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics) and SES, measured by median income of patient zip code. For each stratum we estimated risk-adjusted rates of inpatient mortality and longer LOS (> median LOS). We also compared the hospitals where these subpopulations received care. Results Hispanic and Black patients accounted for 14 and 12 percent of all ischemic stroke admissions (N=147,780) respectively and had lower crude inpatient mortality rates (Hispanic=4.5%, Blacks=4.4%; all p-values < 0.001) compared to White patients (5.8%). Hispanic and Black patients were younger and fewer had any form of atrial fibrillation. Adjusted for patient risk, inpatient mortality was similar by race/ethnicity, but was significantly higher for low area-income patients than that for high area-income patients (Odds Ratio=1.08, 95% confidence interval=[1.02, 1.15]). Risk-adjusted rates of longer LOS were higher among minority and low area-income populations. Conclusions Risk adjusted inpatient mortality was similar among patients by race/ethnicity but higher among patients from lower income areas. However, this pattern was not evident in sensitivity analyses including the use of mechanical ventilation as a partial surrogate for stroke severity. PMID:23306327

Impact of dietary fiber intake on glycemic control, cardiovascular risk factors and chronic kidney disease in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Fukuoka Diabetes Registry

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Dietary fiber is beneficial for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus, although it is consumed differently in ethnic foods around the world. We investigated the association between dietary fiber intake and obesity, glycemic control, cardiovascular risk factors and chronic kidney disease in Japanese type 2 diabetic patients. Methods A total of 4,399 patients were assessed for dietary fiber intake using a brief self-administered diet history questionnaire. The associations between dietary fiber intake and various cardiovascular risk factors were investigated cross-sectionally. Results Body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, triglyceride and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein negatively associated with dietary fiber intake after adjusting for age, sex, duration of diabetes, current smoking, current drinking, total energy intake, fat intake, saturated fatty acid intake, leisure-time physical activity and use of oral hypoglycemic agents or insulin. The homeostasis model assessment insulin sensitivity and HDL cholesterol positively associated with dietary fiber intake. Dietary fiber intake was associated with reduced prevalence of abdominal obesity, hypertension and metabolic syndrome after multivariate adjustments including obesity. Furthermore, dietary fiber intake was associated with lower prevalence of albuminuria, low estimated glomerular filtration rate and chronic kidney disease after multivariate adjustments including protein intake. Additional adjustments for obesity, hypertension or metabolic syndrome did not change these associations. Conclusion We demonstrated that increased dietary fiber intake was associated with better glycemic control and more favorable cardiovascular disease risk factors including chronic kidney disease in Japanese type 2 diabetic patients. Diabetic patients should be encouraged to consume more dietary fiber in daily life. PMID:24330576

Risk adjustment in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program: a comparison of logistic versus hierarchical modeling.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Ko, Clifford Y; Richards, Karen; Hall, Bruce Lee

2009-12-01

Although logistic regression has commonly been used to adjust for risk differences in patient and case mix to permit quality comparisons across hospitals, hierarchical modeling has been advocated as the preferred methodology, because it accounts for clustering of patients within hospitals. It is unclear whether hierarchical models would yield important differences in quality assessments compared with logistic models when applied to American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) data. Our objective was to evaluate differences in logistic versus hierarchical modeling for identifying hospitals with outlying outcomes in the ACS-NSQIP. Data from ACS-NSQIP patients who underwent colorectal operations in 2008 at hospitals that reported at least 100 operations were used to generate logistic and hierarchical prediction models for 30-day morbidity and mortality. Differences in risk-adjusted performance (ratio of observed-to-expected events) and outlier detections from the two models were compared. Logistic and hierarchical models identified the same 25 hospitals as morbidity outliers (14 low and 11 high outliers), but the hierarchical model identified 2 additional high outliers. Both models identified the same eight hospitals as mortality outliers (five low and three high outliers). The values of observed-to-expected events ratios and p values from the two models were highly correlated. Results were similar when data were permitted from hospitals providing < 100 patients. When applied to ACS-NSQIP data, logistic and hierarchical models provided nearly identical results with respect to identification of hospitals' observed-to-expected events ratio outliers. As hierarchical models are prone to implementation problems, logistic regression will remain an accurate and efficient method for performing risk adjustment of hospital quality comparisons.

Mental Health Distress and Related Factors Among Prefectural Public Servants Seven Months After the Great East Japan Earthquake

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Yuriko; Fukasawa, Maiko; Obara, Akiko; Kim, Yoshiharu

2014-01-01

Background To develop an empirically informed support measure for workers, we examined mental health distress and its risk factors among prefectural public servants who were affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake and faced a demanding workload in the midterm of the disaster. Methods We conducted a self-administered health survey of all public servants in the Miyagi prefectural government two and seven months after the Great East Japan Earthquake (3743 workers, 70.6% of all employees). We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mental distress (defined as K6 score ≥10) in the domain of disaster-work-related stressors, work-related stressors, and disaster-related stressors. Results Among those with better levels of workplace communication, the only factor that increased the risk of mental distress was not taking a non-work day each week (adjusted OR 2.55, 95% CI 1.27–5.14). Among those with poorer levels of workplace communication, in addition to not taking a non-work day each week (adjusted OR 3.93, 95% CI 3.00–5.15), handling residents’ complaints (adjusted OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.00–2.42), having dead or missing family members (adjusted OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.53–5.38), and living in a shelter more than two months after the disaster (adjusted OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.32–5.95) increased the risk of mental distress. Conclusions All workers should be encouraged to take a non-work day each week. Among workers with poor workplace communication, special attention should be given to those who handle residents’ complaints, have lost a family member(s), and are living in a shelter for a prolonged period of time. PMID:24857952

Environmental Exposures and the Risk of Central Venous Catheter Complications and Readmissions in Home Infusion Therapy Patients

PubMed Central

Keller, Sara C.; Williams, Deborah; Gavgani, Mitra; Hirsch, David; Adamovich, John; Hohl, Dawn; Krosche, Amanda; Cosgrove, Sara; Perl, Trish M.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Patients are frequently discharged with central venous catheters (CVCs) for home infusion therapy. OBJECTIVE To study a prospective cohort of patients receiving home infusion therapy to identify environmental and other risk factors for complications. DESIGN Prospective cohort study between March and December 2015. SETTING Home infusion therapy after discharge from academic medical centers. PARTICIPANTS Of 368 eligible patients discharged from 2 academic hospitals to home with peripherally inserted central catheters and tunneled CVCs, 222 consented. Patients remained in the study until 30 days after CVC removal. METHODS Patients underwent chart abstraction and monthly telephone surveys while the CVC was in place, focusing on complications and environmental exposures. Multivariable analyses estimated adjusted odds ratios and adjusted incident rate ratios between clinical, demographic, and environmental risk factors and 30-day readmissions or CVC complications. RESULTS Of 222 patients, total parenteral nutrition was associated with increased 30-day readmissions (adjusted odds ratio, 4.80 [95% CI, 1.51–15.21) and CVC complications (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41 [95% CI, 1.09–5.33]). Exposure to soil through gardening or yard work was associated with a decreased likelihood of readmissions (adjusted odds ratio, 0.09 [95% CI, 0.01–0.74]). Other environmental exposures were not associated with CVC complications. CONCLUSIONS complications and readmissions were common and associated with the use of total parenteral nutrition. Common environmental exposures (well water, cooking with raw meat, or pets) did not increase the rate of CVC complications, whereas soil exposures were associated with decreased readmissions. Interventions to decrease home CVC complications should focus on total parenteral nutrition patients. PMID:27697084

Environmental Exposures and the Risk of Central Venous Catheter Complications and Readmissions in Home Infusion Therapy Patients.

PubMed

Keller, Sara C; Williams, Deborah; Gavgani, Mitra; Hirsch, David; Adamovich, John; Hohl, Dawn; Krosche, Amanda; Cosgrove, Sara; Perl, Trish M

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Patients are frequently discharged with central venous catheters (CVCs) for home infusion therapy. OBJECTIVE To study a prospective cohort of patients receiving home infusion therapy to identify environmental and other risk factors for complications. DESIGN Prospective cohort study between March and December 2015. SETTING Home infusion therapy after discharge from academic medical centers. PARTICIPANTS Of 368 eligible patients discharged from 2 academic hospitals to home with peripherally inserted central catheters and tunneled CVCs, 222 consented. Patients remained in the study until 30 days after CVC removal. METHODS Patients underwent chart abstraction and monthly telephone surveys while the CVC was in place, focusing on complications and environmental exposures. Multivariable analyses estimated adjusted odds ratios and adjusted incident rate ratios between clinical, demographic, and environmental risk factors and 30-day readmissions or CVC complications. RESULTS Of 222 patients, total parenteral nutrition was associated with increased 30-day readmissions (adjusted odds ratio, 4.80 [95% CI, 1.51-15.21) and CVC complications (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41 [95% CI, 1.09-5.33]). Exposure to soil through gardening or yard work was associated with a decreased likelihood of readmissions (adjusted odds ratio, 0.09 [95% CI, 0.01-0.74]). Other environmental exposures were not associated with CVC complications. CONCLUSIONS complications and readmissions were common and associated with the use of total parenteral nutrition. Common environmental exposures (well water, cooking with raw meat, or pets) did not increase the rate of CVC complications, whereas soil exposures were associated with decreased readmissions. Interventions to decrease home CVC complications should focus on total parenteral nutrition patients. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-8.

Statins and risk of poststroke hemorrhagic complications

PubMed Central

MacIsaac, Rachael L.; Abdul-Rahim, Azmil H.; Siegerink, Bob; Bath, Philip M.; Endres, Matthias; Lees, Kennedy R.; Nolte, Christian H.

2016-01-01

Objective: To assess whether statin treatment before or after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) affects the risk of acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), postacute ICH, and mortality within 90 days. Methods: Data were sought from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive, an international repository of clinical trials data. Using propensity score matching, we retrospectively compared patients with prior statin treatment and newly initiated statin within 3 days after AIS to patients without statin exposure. Outcomes of interest were acute symptomatic ICH (sICH), any acute ICH, postacute ICH, and mortality during follow-up of 3 months. Results: A total of 8,535 patients (mean age 70 years, 54% male, median baseline NIH Stroke Scale score 13) were analyzed. After propensity score matching, prior statin use was not strongly associated with sICH (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83–2.14) or any ICH (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.92–1.98). There was no evidence of an interaction between prior statin use and thrombolysis. New initiation of statins was not associated with postacute ICH (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.60, 95% CI 0.70–3.65). There was a signal towards lower 90-day mortality in patients with prior statin use (adjusted HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.70–1.00) and especially early initiation of statins (adjusted HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.46–0.97). Conclusions: Statin use prior to AIS was not associated with early hemorrhagic complications, irrespective of treatment with thrombolysis. New initiation of statin treatment early after AIS did not affect risk of postacute ICH, but might be associated with reduced mortality. PMID:27016519

Acute Maternal Infection and Risk of Pre-Eclampsia: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Minassian, Caroline; Thomas, Sara L.; Williams, David J.; Campbell, Oona; Smeeth, Liam

2013-01-01

Background Infection in pregnancy may be involved in the aetiology of pre-eclampsia. However, a clear association between acute maternal infection and pre-eclampsia has not been established. We assessed whether acute urinary tract infection, respiratory tract infection, and antibiotic drug prescriptions in pregnancy (a likely proxy for maternal infection) are associated with an increased risk of pre-eclampsia. Methods and Findings We used a matched nested case-control design and data from the UK General Practice Research Database to examine the association between maternal infection and pre-eclampsia. Primiparous women aged at least 13 years and registered with a participating practice between January 1987 and October 2007 were eligible for inclusion. We selected all cases of pre-eclampsia and a random sample of primiparous women without pre-eclampsia (controls). Cases (n = 1533) were individually matched with up to ten controls (n = 14236) on practice and year of delivery. We calculated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for pre-eclampsia comparing women exposed and unexposed to infection using multivariable conditional logistic regression. After adjusting for maternal age, pre-gestational hypertension, diabetes, renal disease and multifetal gestation, the odds of pre-eclampsia were increased in women prescribed antibiotic drugs (adjusted odds ratio 1.28;1.14–1.44) and in women with urinary tract infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.22;1.03–1.45). We found no association with maternal respiratory tract infection (adjusted odds ratio 0.91;0.72–1.16). Further adjustment for maternal smoking and pre-pregnancy body mass index made no difference to our findings. Conclusions Women who acquire a urinary infection during pregnancy, but not those who have a respiratory infection, are at an increased risk of pre-eclampsia. Maternal antibiotic prescriptions are also associated with an increased risk. Further research is required to elucidate the underlying mechanism of this association and to determine whether, among women who acquire infections in pregnancy, prompt treatment or prophylaxis against infection might reduce the risk of pre-eclampsia. PMID:24019891

Identifying unusual performance in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units from 2000 to 2010

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database (APD) collects voluntary data on patient admissions to Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs). This paper presents an in-depth statistical analysis of risk-adjusted mortality of ICU admissions from 2000 to 2010 for the purpose of identifying ICUs with unusual performance. Methods A cohort of 523,462 patients from 144 ICUs was analysed. For each ICU, the natural logarithm of the standardised mortality ratio (log-SMR) was estimated from a risk-adjusted, three-level hierarchical model. This is the first time a three-level model has been fitted to such a large ICU database anywhere. The analysis was conducted in three stages which included the estimation of a null distribution to describe usual ICU performance. Log-SMRs with appropriate estimates of standard errors are presented in a funnel plot using 5% false discovery rate thresholds. False coverage-statement rate confidence intervals are also presented. The observed numbers of deaths for ICUs identified as unusual are compared to the predicted true worst numbers of deaths under the model for usual ICU performance. Results Seven ICUs were identified as performing unusually over the period 2000 to 2010, in particular, demonstrating high risk-adjusted mortality compared to the majority of ICUs. Four of the seven were ICUs in private hospitals. Our three-stage approach to the analysis detected outlying ICUs which were not identified in a conventional (single) risk-adjusted model for mortality using SMRs to compare ICUs. We also observed a significant linear decline in mortality over the decade. Distinct yearly and weekly respiratory seasonal effects were observed across regions of Australia and New Zealand for the first time. Conclusions The statistical approach proposed in this paper is intended to be used for the review of observed ICU and hospital mortality. Two important messages from our study are firstly, that comprehensive risk-adjustment is essential in modelling patient mortality for comparing performance, and secondly, that the appropriate statistical analysis is complicated. PMID:24755369

Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

PubMed

Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

2017-02-01

Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Measuring efficiency: the association of hospital costs and quality of care.

PubMed

Jha, Ashish K; Orav, E John; Dobson, Allen; Book, Robert A; Epstein, Arnold M

2009-01-01

Providers with lower costs may be more efficient and, therefore, provide better care than those with higher costs. However, the relationship between risk-adjusted costs (often described as efficiency) and quality is not well understood. We examined the relationship between hospitals' risk-adjusted costs and their structural characteristics, nursing levels, quality of care, and outcomes. U.S. hospitals with low risk-adjusted costs were more likely to be for-profit, treat more Medicare patients, and employ fewer nurses. They provided modestly worse care for acute myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure but had comparable rates of risk-adjusted mortality. We found no evidence that low-cost providers provide better care.

Intra-dialytic hypertension is associated with high mortality in hemodialysis patients

PubMed Central

Yoon, Kyu Tae; Gil, Hyo Wook; Hong, Sae Yong

2017-01-01

Background Intra-dialytic hypertension (IDH) is emerging as an important issue in hemodialysis patients. Its risk factors and clinical outcomes are unclear. Methods A total of 73 prevalent hemodialysis patients were enrolled. They included 14 (19.2%) patients with baseline IDH and 59 patients without IDH. Their clinical parameters, laboratory parameters, and mortality were investigated over 78 months. Results The risks factor of IDH included low serum potassium levels, low ultrafiltration, and low arm muscle area. Lower median survival was evident in the IDH group compared to the non-IDH group, but was not significantly different. After adjusting for relevant confounders for age, the IDH group displayed 2.846 times higher mortality rate than the non-IDH Group (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.846; 95% confidence interval: 1.081–7.490; P = 0.034). Conclusion IDH is associated with high mortality in hemodialysis patients. Clinicians should be aware of the risk factors. Future research studies are needed to explore the mechanisms involved in the association between IDH and mortality. PMID:28742805

[Notes on the planned German health fund model].

PubMed

Robra, B-P; Mayrhofer, T

2006-10-01

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the planned German health fund model, a special risk adjustment scheme, in terms of competition policy. Starting from the present model of risk adjustment, we have examined the consequences of introducing the fund model on competition in the health insurance market. On the one hand, the risk adjustment fund will, at best, decrease ineffective competition for "good risks". On the other hand, it will increase the pressure of competition inside the health insurance market by providing new incentives to the unemployed to change their sickness fund. Significant economies, however, can only be realised by increasing the competition for contracts between the health insurance companies and the suppliers of medical services. The new risk adjustment fund then will also offer only a limited potential for competition between individual sickness funds. Besides, it remains to be seen to what extent policy-makers are able to achieve an optimally designed risk adjustment fund and whether the sickness funds themselves do not misinterpret the reform as nationalization in disguise and consequently delegate their management responsibilities back to the policy-makers.

Refining Risk Adjustment for the Proposed CMS Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment Bundled Payment Program.

PubMed

Cairns, Mark A; Ostrum, Robert F; Clement, R Carter

2018-02-21

The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been considering the implementation of a mandatory bundled payment program, the Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment (SHFFT) model. However, bundled payments without appropriate risk adjustment may be inequitable to providers and may restrict access to care for certain patients. The SHFFT proposal includes adjustment using the Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) and geographic location. The goal of the current study was to identify and quantify patient factors that could improve risk adjustment for SHFFT bundled payments. We retrospectively reviewed a 5% random sample of Medicare data from 2008 to 2012. A total of 27,898 patients were identified who met SHFFT inclusion criteria (DRG 480, 481, and 482). Reimbursement was determined for each patient over the bundle period (the surgical hospitalization and 90 days of post-discharge care). Multivariable regression was performed to test demographic factors, comorbidities, geographic location, and specific surgical procedures for associations with reimbursement. The average reimbursement was $23,632 ± $17,587. On average, reimbursements for male patients were $1,213 higher than for female patients (p < 0.01). Younger age was also associated with higher payments; e.g., reimbursement for those ≥85 years of age averaged $2,282 ± $389 less than for those aged 65 to 69 (p < 0.01). Most comorbidities were associated with higher reimbursement, but dementia was associated with lower payments, by an average of $2,354 ± $243 (p < 0.01). Twenty-two procedure codes are included in the bundle, and patients with the 3 most common codes accounted for 98% of the cases, with average reimbursement ranging from $22,527 to $24,033. Less common procedures varied by >$20,000 in average reimbursement (p < 0.01). DRGs also showed significant differences in reimbursement (p < 0.01); e.g., DRG 480 was reimbursed by an average of $10,421 ± $543 more than DRG 482. Payments varied significantly by state (p ≤ 0.01). Risk adjustment incorporating specific comorbidities demonstrated better performance than with use of DRG alone (r = 0.22 versus 0.15). Our results suggest that the proposed SHFFT bundled payment model should use more robust risk-adjustment methods to ensure that providers are reimbursed fairly and that patients retain access to care. At a minimum, payments should be adjusted for age, comorbidities, demographic factors, geographic location, and surgical procedure.

New developments in cerebral blood flow autoregulation analysis in preterm infants: a mechanistic approach.

PubMed

Riera, Joan; Cabañas, Fernando; Serrano, José Javier; Madero, Rosario; Pellicer, Adelina

2016-03-01

Impaired autoregulation capacity implies that changes in cerebral perfusion follow changes in blood pressure; however, no analytical method has explored such a signal causality relationship in infants. We sought to develop a method to assess cerebral autoregulation from a mechanistic point of view and explored the predictive capacity of the method to classify infants at risk for adverse outcomes. The partial directed coherence (PDC) method, which considers synchronicity and directionality of signal dependence across frequencies, was used to analyze the relationship between spontaneous changes in mean arterial pressure (MAP) and the cerebral tissue oxygenation index (TOI). PDCMAP>TOI indicated that changes in TOI were induced by MAP changes, and PDCTOI>MAP indicated the opposite. The PDCMAP>TOI and PDCTOI>MAP values differed. PDCMAP>TOI adjusted by gestational age predicted low superior vena cava flow (≤41 ml/kg per min), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.63-0.81; P < 0.001), whereas PDCTOI>MAP did not. The adjusted pPDCMAP>TOI (the average value per patient) predicted severe intracranial hemorrhage and mortality. PDCMAP>TOI allows for a noninvasive physiological interpretation of the pressure autoregulation process in neonates. PDCMAP>TOI is a good classifier for infants at risk of brain hypoperfusion and adverse outcomes.

Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

PubMed

Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

2003-07-01

Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

Preoperative posterior tilt of at least 20° increased the risk of fixation failure in Garden-I and -II femoral neck fractures.

PubMed

Dolatowski, Filip C; Adampour, Mina; Frihagen, Frede; Stavem, Knut; Erik Utvåg, Stein; Hoelsbrekken, Sigurd Erik

2016-06-01

Background and purpose - It has been suggested that preoperative posterior tilt of the femoral head may increase the risk of fixation failure in Garden-I and -II femoral neck fractures. To investigate this association, we studied a cohort of 322 such patients. Patients and methods - Patients treated with internal fixation between 2005 and 2012 were retrospectively identified using hospital records and the digital image bank. 2 raters measured the preoperative posterior tilt angle and categorized it into 3 groups: < 10°, 10-20°, and ≥ 20°. The inter-rater reliability (IRR) was determined. Patients were observed until September 2013 (with a minimum follow-up of 18 months) or until failure of fixation necessitating salvage arthroplasty. The risk of fixation failure was assessed using competing-risk regression analysis, adjusting for time to surgery. Results - Patients with a posterior tilt of ≥ 20° had a higher risk of fixation failure: 19% (8/43) as compared to 11% (14/127) in the 10-20° category and 6% (9/152) in the < 10° category (p = 0.03). Posterior tilt of ≥ 20° increased the risk of fixation failure, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.3-8.9; p = 0.01). The interclass correlation coefficient for angular measurements of posterior tilt was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.87-0.92), and the IRR for the categorization of posterior tilt into 3 groups was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.69-0.81). Interpretation - Preoperative posterior tilt of ≥ 20° in Garden-I and -II femoral neck fractures increased the risk of fixation failure necessitating salvage arthroplasty. The reliability of the methods that we used to measure posterior tilt ranged from good to excellent.

Polymorphisms in ARMS2/HTRA1 and Complement Genes and Age-Related Macular Degeneration in India: Findings from the INDEYE Study

PubMed Central

Sundaresan, Periasamy; Vashist, Praveen; Ravindran, Ravilla D.; Shanker, Ashwini; Nitsch, Dorothea; Nonyane, Bareng A. S.; Smeeth, Liam; Chakravarthy, Usha; Fletcher, Astrid E.

2012-01-01

Purpose. Association between genetic variants in complement factor H (CFH), factor B (CFB), component 2 (C2), and in the ARMS2/HTRA1 region with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) comes mainly from studies of European ancestry and case-control studies of late-stage disease. We investigated associations of both early and late AMD with these variants in a population-based study of people aged 60 years and older in India. Methods. Fundus images were graded using the Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System and participants assigned to one of four mutually exclusive stages based on the worse affected eye (0 = no AMD, 1–3 = early AMD, 4 = late AMD). Multinomial logistic regression was used to derive risk ratios (RR) accounting for sampling method and adjusting for age, sex, and study center. Results. Of 3569 participants, 53.2% had no signs of AMD, 45.6% had features of early AMD, and 1.2% had late AMD. CFH (rs1061170), C2 (rs547154), or CFB (rs438999) was not associated with early or late AMD. In the ARMS2 locus, rs10490924 was associated with both early (adjusted RR 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13–1.33, P < 0.0001) and late AMD (adjusted RR 1.81, 95% CI: 1.15–2.86; P = 0.01); rs2672598 was associated only with early AMD (adjusted RR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02–1.23; P = 0.02); rs10490923 was not associated with early or late AMD. Conclusions. Two variants in ARMS2/HTRA1 were associated with increased risk of early AMD, and for one of these, the increased risk was also evident for late AMD. The study provides new insights into the role of these variants in early stages of AMD in India. PMID:23060141

Comparison of the predictive validity of diagnosis-based risk adjusters for clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Petersen, Laura A; Pietz, Kenneth; Woodard, LeChauncy D; Byrne, Margaret

2005-01-01

Many possible methods of risk adjustment exist, but there is a dearth of comparative data on their performance. We compared the predictive validity of 2 widely used methods (Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs] and Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs]) for 2 clinical outcomes using a large national sample of patients. We studied all patients who used Veterans Health Administration (VA) medical services in fiscal year (FY) 2001 (n = 3,069,168) and assigned both a DCG and an ACG to each. We used logistic regression analyses to compare predictive ability for death or long-term care (LTC) hospitalization for age/gender models, DCG models, and ACG models. We also assessed the effect of adding age to the DCG and ACG models. Patients in the highest DCG categories, indicating higher severity of illness, were more likely to die or to require LTC hospitalization. Surprisingly, the age/gender model predicted death slightly more accurately than the ACG model (c-statistic of 0.710 versus 0.700, respectively). The addition of age to the ACG model improved the c-statistic to 0.768. The highest c-statistic for prediction of death was obtained with a DCG/age model (0.830). The lowest c-statistics were obtained for age/gender models for LTC hospitalization (c-statistic 0.593). The c-statistic for use of ACGs to predict LTC hospitalization was 0.783, and improved to 0.792 with the addition of age. The c-statistics for use of DCGs and DCG/age to predict LTC hospitalization were 0.885 and 0.890, respectively, indicating the best prediction. We found that risk adjusters based upon diagnoses predicted an increased likelihood of death or LTC hospitalization, exhibiting good predictive validity. In this comparative analysis using VA data, DCG models were generally superior to ACG models in predicting clinical outcomes, although ACG model performance was enhanced by the addition of age.

Risk-Adjustment Simulation: Plans May Have Incentives To Distort Mental Health And Substance Use Coverage

PubMed Central

Montz, Ellen; Layton, Tim; Busch, Alisa B.; Ellis, Randall P.; Rose, Sherri; McGuire, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

Under the Affordable Care Act, the risk-adjustment program is designed to compensate health plans for enrolling people with poorer health status so that plans compete on cost and quality rather than the avoidance of high-cost individuals. This study examined health plan incentives to limit covered services for mental health and substance use disorders under the risk-adjustment system used in the health insurance Marketplaces. Through a simulation of the program on a population constructed to reflect Marketplace enrollees, we analyzed the cost consequences for plans enrolling people with mental health and substance use disorders. Our assessment points to systematic underpayment to plans for people with these diagnoses. We document how Marketplace risk adjustment does not remove incentives for plans to limit coverage for services associated with mental health and substance use disorders. Adding mental health and substance use diagnoses used in Medicare Part D risk adjustment is one potential policy step toward addressing this problem in the Marketplaces. PMID:27269018

A Statewide Collaboration: Ohio Level III Trauma Centers' Approach to the Development of a Benchmarking System.

PubMed

Lang, Carrie L; Simon, Diane; Kilgore, Jane

The American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma revised the Resources for Optimal Care of the Injured Patient to include the criteria for trauma centers to participate in a risk-adjusted benchmarking system. Trauma Quality Improvement Program is currently the risk-adjusted benchmarking program sponsored by the American College of Surgeons, which will be required of all trauma centers to participate in early 2017. Prior to this, there were no risk-adjusted programs for Level III verified trauma centers. The Ohio Society of Trauma Nurse Leaders is a collaborative group made up of trauma program managers, coordinators, and other trauma leaders who meet 6 times a year. Within this group, a Level III Subcommittee was formed initially to provide a place for the Level III centers to discuss issues specific to the Level III centers. When the new requirement regarding risk-adjustment became official, the subcommittee agreed to begin reporting simple data points with the idea to risk adjust in the future.

Why people do what they do to protect against earthquake risk: perceptions of hazard adjustment attributes.

PubMed

Lindell, Michael K; Arlikatti, Sudha; Prater, Carla S

2009-08-01

This study examined respondents' self-reported adoption of 16 hazard adjustments (preimpact actions to reduce danger to persons and property), their perceptions of those adjustments' attributes, and the correlations of those perceived attributes with respondents' demographic characteristics. The sample comprised 561 randomly selected residents from three cities in Southern California prone to high seismic risk and three cities from Western Washington prone to moderate seismic risks. The results show that the hazard adjustment perceptions were defined by hazard-related attributes and resource-related attributes. More significantly, the respondents had a significant degree of consensus in their ratings of those attributes and used them to differentiate among the hazard adjustments, as indicated by statistically significant differences among the hazard adjustment profiles. Finally, there were many significant correlations between respondents' demographic characteristics and the perceived characteristics of hazard adjustments, but there were few consistent patterns among these correlations.

Association of Proton Pump Inhibitors Usage with Risk of Pneumonia in Dementia Patients.

PubMed

Ho, Sai-Wai; Teng, Ying-Hock; Yang, Shun-Fa; Yeh, Han-Wei; Wang, Yu-Hsun; Chou, Ming-Chih; Yeh, Chao-Bin

2017-07-01

To determine the association between usages of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and subsequent risk of pneumonia in dementia patients. Retrospective cohort study. Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database. The study cohort consisted of 786 dementia patients with new PPI usage and 786 matched dementia patients without PPI usage. The study endpoint was defined as the occurrence of pneumonia. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the pneumonia risk. Defined daily dose methodology was applied to evaluate the cumulative and dose-response relationships of PPI. Incidence of pneumonia was higher among patients with PPI usage (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.89; 95% CI = 1.51-2.37). Cox model analysis also demonstrated that age (adjusted HR = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.03-1.06), male gender (adjusted HR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.25-1.98), underlying cerebrovascular disease (adjusted HR = 1.30; 95% CI = 1.04-1.62), chronic pulmonary disease (adjusted HR = 1.39; 95% CI = 1.09-1.76), congestive heart failure (adjusted HR = 1.54; 95% CI = 1.11-2.13), diabetes mellitus (adjusted HR = 1.54; 95% CI = 1.22-1.95), and usage of antipsychotics (adjusted HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.03-1.61) were independent risk factors for pneumonia. However, usage of cholinesterase inhibitors and histamine receptor-2 antagonists were shown to decrease pneumonia risk. PPI usage in dementia patients is associated with an 89% increased risk of pneumonia. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

The Influence of Subjective Social Status on Vulnerability to Postpartum Smoking Among Young Pregnant Women

PubMed Central

Reitzel, Lorraine R.; Vidrine, Jennifer I.; Li, Yisheng; Mullen, Patricia D.; Velasquez, Mary M.; Cinciripini, Paul M.; Cofta-Woerpel, Ludmila; Greisinger, Anthony; Wetter, David W.

2007-01-01

Objectives. Associations between subjective social status, a subjective measure of socioeconomic status, and predictors of risk for postpartum smoking were examined among 123 pregnant women (aged 18–24 years) who stopped smoking because of pregnancy. The goal was to identify how subjective social status might influence the risk for postpartum smoking and to elucidate targets for intervention. Methods. We used multiple regression equations to examine the predictive relations between subjective social status and tobacco dependence, self-rated likelihood of postpartum smoking, confidence, temptations, positive and negative affect, depression, stress, and social support. Adjusted analyses were also conducted with control for race/ethnicity, education, income, and whether participant had a partner or not (partner status). Results. In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, subjective social status predicted tobacco dependence, likelihood of postpartum smoking, confidence, temptations, positive affect, negative affect, and social support. Adjusted analyses predicting depression and stress approached significance. Conclusions. Among young pregnant women who quit smoking because of pregnancy, low subjective social status was associated with a constellation of characteristics indicative of increased vulnerability to postpartum smoking. Subjective social status provided unique information on risk for postpartum smoking over and above the effects of race/ethnicity, objective socioeconomic status, and partner status. PMID:17600249

Interleukin-6 is associated with cognitive function: the Northern Manhattan Study

PubMed Central

Wright, C.B.; Sacco, R.L.; Rundek, T.R.; Delman, J.B.; Rabbani, L.E.; Elkind, M.S.V.

2006-01-01

Background and purpose Inflammation has been linked to cognitive decline and dementia but the mechanism is not clear and few studies have included Hispanic and black subjects that may be at increased risk of these disorders. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the association between inflammatory marker levels and cognition in the stroke-free population-based cohort of the Northern Manhattan Study. Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE) scores were the continuous outcome and we adjusted for sociodemographic and vascular risk factors as well as subclinical atherosclerosis. Results Of the inflammatory markers, only interleukin (IL)-6 levels were associated with the MMSE. In univariate analysis age, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, moderate alcohol use, total homocysteine, carotid intima media thickness, and body mass index were positively associated with IL-6 levels. Hispanics compared to whites, those with less than a high school education, hypertension, cardiac disease, and total homocysteine were associated with lower MMSE scores. In a multivariate linear regression model, IL-6 was negatively associated with MMSE score adjusting for sociodemographic and vascular risk factors. Conclusions IL-6 levels were negatively associated with performance on the MMSE in this multiethnic cohort. Adjusting for vascular disease and subclinical atherosclerosis did not attenuate the association, suggesting a direct effect on the brain. PMID:16501663

High population attributable fractions of myocardial infarction associated with waist–hip ratio

PubMed Central

Igland, Jannicke; Vollset, Stein Emil; Sulo, Gerhard; Eide, Geir Egil; Tell, Grethe S.

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate population attributable fractions (PAF) of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) associated with anthropometric measures by sex and age. Methods The Cohort of Norway study identified 140,790 participants free of cardiovascular disease, 1994‐2003. Participants were followed for AMI through 2009 by record linkages through the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway Project. PAFs were adjusted for age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and the ratio of total cholesterol to high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol. Results The PAFs associated with a waist–hip ratio (WHR) in the top two quintiles were 26.1% (95% confidence interval, CI 14.6–36.1) for middle‐aged women (<60 years, mean of 41 years) and 9.3% (95% CI 3.0–15.1) for similarly aged men after adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and conventional risk factors. However, PAFs associated with anthropometric measures in elderly participants (≥ 60 years, mean of 70 years) were non‐significant in multivariable analyses. Also, WHR was a significant predictor of AMI among men and women without an enlarged waist circumference (<102 cm for men and < 88 cm for women) in adjusted analyses. Conclusions WHR measurements could improve identification of at‐risk individuals above and beyond that of conventional risk factors, BMI, or an enlarged waist circumference. PMID:27030172

Pre-Pregnancy BMI, Gestational Weight Gain, and the Risk of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy: A Cohort Study in Wuhan, China

PubMed Central

Hu, Ronghua; Zhang, Yiming; Bassig, Bryan A.; Triche, Elizabeth; Yang, Shaoping; Qiu, Lin; Zhang, Yaqi; Yao, Cong; Xu, Shunqing; Wang, Youjie; Xia, Wei; Qian, Zhengmin; Zheng, Tongzhang; Zhang, Bin

2015-01-01

Background Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are major causes of maternal death worldwide and the risk factors are not fully understood. Few studies have investigated the risk factors for HDP among Chinese women. A cohort study involving 84,656 women was conducted to investigate pre-pregnancy BMI, total gestational weight gain (GWG), and GWG during early pregnancy as risk factors for HDP among Chinese women. Methods The study was conducted between 2011–2013 in Wuhan, China, utilizing data from the Maternal and Children Healthcare Information Tracking System of Wuhan. A total of 84,656 women with a live singleton pregnancy were included. Multiple unconditional logistic regression was conducted to evaluate associations between putative risk factors and HDP. Results Women who were overweight or obese before pregnancy had an elevated risk of developing HDP (overweight: OR = 2.66, 95% CI = 2.32–3.05; obese: OR = 5.53, 95% CI = 4.28–7.13) compared to their normal weight counterparts. Women with total GWG above the Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommendation had an adjusted OR of 1.72 (95% CI = 1.54–1.93) for HDP compared to women who had GWG within the IOM recommendation. Women with gestational BMI gain >10 kg/m2 during pregnancy had an adjusted OR of 3.35 (95% CI = 2.89–3.89) for HDP, compared to women with a gestational BMI gain <5 kg/m2. The increased risk of HDP was also observed among women with higher early pregnancy (up to 18 weeks of pregnancy) GWG (>600g/wk: adjusted OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.19–1.84). Conclusion The results from this study show that maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, early GWG, and total GWG are positively associated with the risk of HDP. Weight control efforts before and during pregnancy may help to reduce the risk of HDP. PMID:26305565

The Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Individuals With Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome in the United States

PubMed Central

Sahasrabuddhe, Vikrant V.; Shiels, Meredith S.; McGlynn, Katherine A.; Engels, Eric A.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a concern among individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). METHODS The authors analyzed population-based registry linkage data from the US HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study (1980–2009) to examine the risk and trends of HCC among individuals with AIDS. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to measure HCC risk relative to the general population, and Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (RR) comparing incidence among individuals with AIDS. People with AIDS were categorized according to their HIV risk group into high and low hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence groups based on their HIV transmission risk category. RESULTS Among 615,150 individuals with AIDS, HCC risk was elevated almost 4 times compared with the risk in the general population (N = 366; SIR, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 3.5–4.3). Although HCC incidence increased steadily across calendar periods (Ptrend < .0001; adjusted for sex and age), the excess risk in individuals with AIDS compared with the general population remained somewhat constant (SIRs range, 3.5–3.9) between the monotherapy/dual therapy era (1990–1995) and the recent highly active antiretroviral therapy era (2001–2009). In a multivariate model adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, and attained calendar period, HCC incidence increased with advancing age (Ptrend < .0001) and was associated with HIV risk groups with a known higher prevalence of HCV (adjusted RR, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8–2.8). CONCLUSIONS HCC incidence in individuals with AIDS has increased over time despite improved HIV treatment regimens, likely reflecting prolonged survival with chronic liver disease. The high incidence in older adults suggests that this cancer will increase in importance with aging of the HIV-infected population. PMID:22736272

Telomere length and mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study

PubMed Central

Pusceddu, Irene; Kleber, Marcus; Delgado, Graciela; Herrmann, Wolfgang; März, Winfried; Herrmann, Markus

2018-01-01

Introduction Short telomeres have been associated with adverse lifestyle factors, cardiovascular risk factors and age-related diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, hypertension, diabetes, and also with mortality. However, previous studies report conflicting results. Objectives The aim of the present study has been to investigate the involvement of telomere length in all-cause and CVD mortality in subjects hospitalized for diagnostic coronary angiography of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. Methods Relative telomere length (RTL) was measured with a Q-PCR based method in 3,316 participants of the LURIC study. Age-corrected RTL was calculated as the ratio between RTL and age. Median follow-up was 9.9 years. Cox regression and Kaplan-Maier analyses were performed to evaluate the role of RTL for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results RTL correlated negatively with age (r = -0.09; p<0.001). In surviving patients the correlation between age and RTL was statistically significant (r = -0.088; p<0.001), but not in patients who died during follow-up (r = -0.043; p = 0.20). Patients in quartiles 2–4 of RTL had a lower hazard ratio for all-cause mortality (HR:0.822; 95%CI 0.712–0.915; p = 0.008) and CVD-mortality (HR:0.836; 95%CI 0.722–0.969; p = 0.017) when compared to those in the 1st quartile. Adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors did not change this result, however additional adjustment for age attenuated this effect. Patients in the 4th quartile of age-corrected RTL compared to those in the 1st quartile had a lower hazard ratio for all-cause mortality, even with adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions The present study supports the hypothesis that short telomere length increases the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Age appears to be an important co-variate that explains a substantial fraction of this effect. It remains unclear whether short telomeres contribute directly to the increase in mortality or if they are simply a surrogate marker for other adverse processes of aging. PMID:29920523

Measurement and risk adjustment of prelabor cesarean rates in a large sample of California hospitals.

PubMed

Huesch, Marco D; Currid-Halkett, Elizabeth; Doctor, Jason N

2014-05-01

Prelabor cesareans in women without a prior cesarean is an important quality measure, yet one that is seldom tracked. We estimated patient-level risks and calculated how sensitive hospital rankings on this proposed quality metric were to risk adjustment. This retrospective cohort study linked Californian patient data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality with hospital-level operational and financial data. Using the outcome of primary prelabor cesarean, we estimated patient-level logistic regressions in progressively more detailed models. We assessed incremental fit and discrimination, and aggregated the predicted patient-level event probabilities to construct hospital-level rankings. Of 408,355 deliveries by women without prior cesareans at 254 hospitals, 11.0% were prelabor cesareans. Including age, ethnicity, race, insurance, weekend and unscheduled admission, and 12 well-known patient risk factors yielded a model c-statistic of 0.83. Further maternal comorbidities, and hospital and obstetric unit characteristics only marginally improved fit. Risk adjusting hospital rankings led to a median absolute change in rank of 44 places compared to rankings based on observed rates. Of the 48 (49) hospitals identified as in the best (worst) quintile on observed rates, only 23 (18) were so identified by the risk-adjusted model. Models predict primary prelabor cesareans with good discrimination. Systematic hospital-level variation in patient risk factors requires risk adjustment to avoid considerably different classification of hospitals by outcome performance. An opportunity exists to define this metric and report such risk-adjusted outcomes to stakeholders. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

[Application of Competing Risks Model in Predicting Smoking Relapse Following Ischemic Stroke].

PubMed

Hou, Li-Sha; Li, Ji-Jie; Du, Xu-Dong; Yan, Pei-Jing; Zhu, Cai-Rong

2017-07-01

To determine factors associated with smoking relapse in men who survived from their first stroke. Data were collected through face to face interviews with stroke patients in the hospital, and then repeated every three months via telephone over the period from 2010 to 2014. Kaplan-Meier method and competing risk model were adopted to estimate and predict smoking relapse rates. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated a higher relapse rate than the competing risk model. The four-year relapse rate was 43.1% after adjustment of competing risk. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoking outside of home and workplace (such as bars and restaurants) ( P =0.01), single ( P <0.01), and prior history of smoking at least 20 cigarettes per day ( P =0.02) were significant predictors of smoking relapse. When competing risks exist, competing risks model should be used in data analyses. Smoking interventions should give priorities to those without a spouse and those with a heavy smoking history. Smoking ban in public settings can reduce smoking relapse in stroke patients.

The relationship between the C-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: a Monte Carlo Study.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Reeves, Mathew J

2013-03-01

Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of 3 factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card.

The relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: A Monte Carlo study

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.; Reeves, Mathew J.

2015-01-01

Background Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk-adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. Objectives To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Research Design Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of three factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk-adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. Results The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. Conclusions The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card. PMID:23295579

Increased Risk of Revision After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction With Bone-Patellar Tendon-Bone Allografts Compared With Autografts.

PubMed

Maletis, Gregory B; Chen, Jason; Inacio, Maria C S; Love, Rebecca M; Funahashi, Tadashi T

2017-05-01

The use of allograft tissue for anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) remains controversial. To compare the risk of aseptic revision between bone-patellar tendon-bone (BPTB) autografts and BPTB allografts. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. A retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected data was conducted using the Kaiser Permanente ACLR Registry. A cohort of patients who underwent primary unilateral ACLR with BPTB autografts and BPTB allografts was identified. Aseptic revision was the endpoint. The type of graft and allograft processing method (nonprocessed, <1.8-Mrad, and ≥1.8-Mrad irradiation) were the exposures of interest evaluated. Age (≤21 and ≥22 years) was evaluated as an effect modifier. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and race. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were employed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs are provided. The BPTB cohort consisted of 5586 patients: 3783 (67.7%) were male, 2359 (42.2%) were white, 1029 (18.4%) had allografts (nonprocessed: 155; <1.8 Mrad: 525; ≥1.8 Mrad: 288), and 4557 (81.6%) had autografts. The median age was 34.9 years (interquartile range [IQR], 25.4-44.0) for allograft cases and 22.0 years (IQR, 17.6-30.0) for autograft cases. The estimated cumulative revision rate at 2 years was 4.1% (95% CI, 2.9%-5.9%) for allografts and 1.7% (95% CI, 1.3%-2.2%) for autografts. BPTB allografts had a significantly higher adjusted risk of revision than BPTB autografts (HR, 4.54; 95% CI, 3.03-6.79; P < .001). This higher risk of revision was consistent with all allograft processing methods when compared with autografts and was also consistently higher in patients with allografts regardless of age. When BPTB allograft tissue was used for ACLR, an overall 4.54 times adjusted higher risk of revision was observed compared with surgery performed with a BPTB autograft. Whether the tissue was irradiated with either high- or low-dose radiation, chemically processed, or not processed at all made little difference in the risk of revision. The differences in the revision risk were also consistent in younger and older patients. Surgeons and patients should be aware of the increased risk of revision when a BPTB allograft is used for ACLR.

The effect of poverty, social inequity, and maternal education on infant mortality in Nicaragua, 1988-1993.

PubMed Central

Peña, R; Wall, S; Persson, L A

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the effect of poverty and social inequity on infant mortality risks in Nicaragua from 1988 to 1993 and the preventive role of maternal education. METHODS: A cohort analysis of infant survival, based on reproductive histories of a representative sample of 10,867 women aged 15 to 49 years in León, Nicaragua, was conducted. A total of 7073 infants were studied; 342 deaths occurred during 6394 infant-years of follow-up. Outcome measures were infant mortality rate (IMR) and relative mortality risks for different groups. RESULTS: IMR was 50 per 1000 live births. Poverty, expressed as unsatisfied basic needs (UBN) of the household, increased the risk of infant death (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15, 1.92). Social inequity, expressed as the contrast between the household UBN and the predominant UBN of the neighborhood, further increased the risk (adjusted RR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.12, 2.71). A protective effect of the mother's educational level was seen only in poor households. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from absolute level of poverty, social inequity may be an independent risk factor for infant mortality in a low-income country. In poor households, female education may contribute to preventing infant mortality. PMID:10630139

Trends and Risk Factors for Mental Health Diagnoses Among Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans Using Department of Veterans Affairs Health Care, 2002–2008

PubMed Central

Metzler, Thomas J.; Gima, Kristian S.; Bertenthal, Daniel; Maguen, Shira; Marmar, Charles R.

2009-01-01

Objectives. We sought to investigate longitudinal trends and risk factors for mental health diagnoses among Iraq and Afghanistan veterans. Methods. We determined the prevalence and predictors of mental health diagnoses among 289 328 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans entering Veterans Affairs (VA) health care from 2002 to 2008 using national VA data. Results. Of 289 328 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, 106 726 (36.9%) received mental health diagnoses; 62 929 (21.8%) were diagnosed with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and 50 432 (17.4%) with depression. Adjusted 2-year prevalence rates of PTSD increased 4 to 7 times after the invasion of Iraq. Active duty veterans younger than 25 years had higher rates of PTSD and alcohol and drug use disorder diagnoses compared with active duty veterans older than 40 years (adjusted relative risk = 2.0 and 4.9, respectively). Women were at higher risk for depression than were men, but men had over twice the risk for drug use disorders. Greater combat exposure was associated with higher risk for PTSD. Conclusions. Mental health diagnoses increased substantially after the start of the Iraq War among specific subgroups of returned veterans entering VA health care. Early targeted interventions may prevent chronic mental illness. PMID:19608954

Comparison of Primary Cesarean Delivery Rates Among Low-Risk Women in Urban and Rural Hospitals in Hawaii.

PubMed

Chang, Ann Lee; Pacheco, Misty; Yoshino, Kurt; Miyamura, Jill; Maddock, Jay

2016-09-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to examine primary cesarean delivery rates among women with low risk pregnancies in urban and rural hospitals in Hawaii. Methods This is a retrospective study of all low-risk women (term, vertex, singleton) who had a primary cesarean delivery in any Hawaii hospital from 2010 to 2011 using a statewide health information database. Hospitals were divided into two categories: rural and urban. Results Of the 27,096 women who met criteria for this study, 7105 (26.2 %) delivered in a rural hospital. Low-risk women who delivered in a rural hospital had a primary cesarean delivery rate of 18.5 % compared to 11.8 % in the urban hospitals, p < .0001. Low-risk women who delivered at rural hospitals had significantly higher unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios for cesarean delivery. The association with rural hospital was stronger after adjusting for confounders, aOR 2.47 (95 % CI 2.23-2.73) compared to unadjusted OR 1.70 (95 % CI 1.58-1.83) for primary cesarean delivery. Conclusions on practice In a geographically isolated population, rates of primary cesarean delivery among low-risk women are significantly higher in rural hospitals. This disparity should be investigated further.

Intakes of caffeine, coffee and tea and risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Results from five cohort studies

PubMed Central

Fondell, Elinor; O'Reilly, Éilis J.; Fitzgerald, Kathryn C.; Falcone, Guido J.; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Park, Yikyung; Gapstur, Susan M.; Ascherio, Alberto

2015-01-01

Objective Caffeine is thought to be neuroprotective by antagonizing the adenosine A2A receptors in the brain and thereby protecting motor neurons from excitotoxicity. We examined the association between consumption of caffeine, coffee and tea and risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). Methods Longitudinal analyses based on over 1 010 000 men and women in 5 large cohort studies [the Nurses’ Health Study, the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort, the Multiethnic Cohort Study, and the National Institutes of Health – AARP Diet and Health Study]. Cohort-specific multivariable-adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) estimates of ALS incidence or death was estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression and pooled using random-effects models. Results A total of 1279 cases of ALS were documented during a mean of 18 years of follow-up. Caffeine intake was not associated with ALS risk; the pooled multivariable-adjusted RR comparing the highest to the lowest quintile of intake was 0.96 (95% CI 0.81-1.16). Similarly, neither coffee nor tea was associated with ALS risk. Conclusion The results of this large study do not support associations of caffeine or caffeinated beverages with ALS risk. PMID:25822002

Plasma homocysteine, dietary B vitamins, betaine, and choline and risk of peripheral artery disease

PubMed Central

Bertoia, Monica L.; Pai, Jennifer K.; Cooke, John P.; Joosten, Michel M.; Mittleman, Murray A.; Rimm, Eric B.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

2014-01-01

Objective Few studies have examined the roles of homocysteine and related nutrients in the development of peripheral artery disease (PAD). We examined the associations between plasma homocysteine, dietary B vitamins, betaine, choline, and supplemental folic acid use and incidence of PAD. Methods We used two cohort studies of 72,348 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS, 1990-2010) and 44,504 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986-2010). We measured plasma homocysteine in nested matched case-control studies of clinically recognized PAD within both cohorts, including 143 PAD cases and 424 controls within the NHS (1990-2010) and 143 PAD cases and 428 controls within the HPFS (1994-2008). We examined the association between diet and risk of incident PAD in the cohorts using a food frequency questionnaire and 790 cases of PAD over 3.1 million person-years of follow-up. Results Higher homocysteine levels were positively associated with risk of PAD in men (adjusted IRR 2.17; 95% CI, 1.08-4.38 for tertile 3 vs. 1). There was no evidence of an association in women (adjusted IRR 1.14; 95% CI, 0.61-2.12). Similarly, higher folate intake, including supplements, was inversely associated with risk of PAD in men (adjusted HR 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98 for each 250 μg increase) but not women (HR 1.01, 95% CI, 0.88-1.15). Intakes of the other B vitamins, betaine, and choline were not consistently associated with risk of PAD in men or women. Conclusion Homocysteine levels were positively associated and dietary folate intake was inversely associated with risk of PAD in men but not in women. PMID:24819748

Muscle mass, BMI, and mortality among adults in the United States: A population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Hall, Charles B.; Amodu, Afolarin; Sharma, Deep; Androga, Lagu; Hawkins, Meredith

2018-01-01

Background The level of body-mass index (BMI) associated with the lowest risk of death remains unclear. Although differences in muscle mass limit the utility of BMI as a measure of adiposity, no study has directly examined the effect of muscle mass on the BMI-mortality relationship. Methods Body composition was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry in 11,687 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2004. Low muscle mass was defined using sex-specific thresholds of the appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI). Proportional hazards models were created to model associations with all-cause mortality. Results At any level of BMI ≥22, participants with low muscle mass had higher body fat percentage (%TBF), an increased likelihood of diabetes, and higher adjusted mortality than other participants. Increases in %TBF manifested as 30–40% smaller changes in BMI than were observed in participants with preserved muscle mass. Excluding participants with low muscle mass or adjustment for ASMI attenuated the risk associated with low BMI, magnified the risk associated with high BMI, and shifted downward the level of BMI associated with the lowest risk of death. Higher ASMI was independently associated with lower mortality. Effects were similar in never-smokers and ever-smokers. Additional adjustment for waist circumference eliminated the risk associated with higher BMI. Results were unchanged after excluding unintentional weight loss, chronic illness, early mortality, and participants performing muscle-strengthening exercises or recommended levels of physical activity. Conclusions Muscle mass mediates associations of BMI with adiposity and mortality and is inversely associated with the risk of death. After accounting for muscle mass, the BMI associated with the greatest survival shifts downward toward the normal range. These results provide a concrete explanation for the obesity paradox. PMID:29641540

Alcohol Intake and Risk of Incident Melanoma: A Pooled Analysis of Three Prospective Studies in the U.S

PubMed Central

Rivera, Andrew; Nan, Hongmei; Li, Tricia; Qureshi, Abrar; Cho, Eunyoung

2016-01-01

Background Alcohol consumption is associated with increased risk of numerous cancers, but existing evidence for an association with melanoma is equivocal. No study has evaluated the association with different anatomic locations of melanoma. Methods We used data from three large prospective cohort studies to investigate whether alcohol intake was associated with risk of melanoma. Alcohol intake was assessed repeatedly by food-frequency questionnaires. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). Results A total of 1,374 cases of invasive melanoma were documented during 3,855,706 person-years of follow-up. There was an association between higher alcohol intake and incidence of invasive melanoma (pooled multivariate HR 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00–1.29] per drink/d, p trend = 0.04). Among alcoholic beverages, white wine consumption was associated with an increased risk of melanoma (pooled multivariate HR 1.13 [95% CI: 1.04–1.24] per drink/d, p trend <0.01) after adjusting for other alcoholic beverages. The association between alcohol consumption and melanoma risk was stronger for melanoma in relatively UV-spared sites (trunk) versus more UV-exposed sites (head, neck, or extremities). Compared to non-drinkers, the pooled multivariate-adjusted HRs for ≥20g/d of alcohol were 1.02 (95% CI: 0.64–1.62; P trend =0.25) for melanomas of the head, neck, and extremities and 1.73 (95% CI: 1.25–2.38; P trend =0.02) for melanomas of the trunk. Conclusions Alcohol intake was associated with a modest increase in the risk of melanoma, particularly in UV-protected sites. Impact These findings further support American Cancer Society Guidelines for Cancer Prevention to limit alcohol intake. PMID:27909090

Risk factors for death from pandemic influenza in 1918–1919: a case–control study

PubMed Central

Summers, Jennifer A; Stanley, James; Baker, Michael G; Wilson, Nick

2014-01-01

Background Despite the persisting threat from future influenza pandemics, much is still unknown about the risk factors for death from such events, and especially for the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. Methods A case–control study was performed to explore possible risk factors for death from pandemic influenza among New Zealand military personnel in the Northern Hemisphere in 1918–1919 (n = 218 cases, n = 221 controls). Data were compiled from a Roll-of-Honour dataset, a dataset of nearly all military personnel involved in the war and archived individual records. Results In the fully adjusted multivariable model, the following were significantly associated with increased risk of death from pandemic influenza: age (25–29 years), pre-pandemic hospitalisations for a chronic condition (e.g. tuberculosis), relatively early year of military deployment, a relatively short time from enlistment to foreign service, and having a larger chest size (e.g. adjusted odds ratio for 90–99 cm versus <90 cm was 2·45; 95% CI=1·47–4·10). There were no significant associations in the fully adjusted model with military rank, occupational class at enlistment, and rurality at enlistment. Conclusions This is one of the first published case–control studies of mortality risk factors for the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. Some of the findings are consistent with previous research on risk factors (such as chronic conditions and age groups), but others appear more novel (e.g., larger chest size). As all such historical analyses have limitations, there is a need for additional studies in other settings as archival World War One records become digitalised. PMID:24490663

Outcomes of Extremely Preterm Infants Born to Insulin-Dependent Diabetic Mothers

PubMed Central

Boghossian, Nansi S.; Hansen, Nellie I.; Brumbaugh, Jane E.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Shankaran, Seetha; Wyckoff, Myra H.; Colaizy, Tarah T.; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Little is known about in-hospital morbidities and neurodevelopmental outcomes among extremely preterm infants born to women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM). We examined risks of mortality, in-hospital morbidities, and neurodevelopmental outcomes at 18 to 22 months’ corrected age between extremely preterm infants of women with insulin use before pregnancy (IBP), with insulin use started during pregnancy (IDP), and without IDDM. METHODS: Infants 22 to 28 weeks’ gestation born or cared for at a Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network center (2006–2011) were studied. Regression models compared the association between maternal IDDM and timing of insulin use and the outcomes of the 3 groups. RESULTS: Of 10 781 infants, 536 (5%) were born to women with IDDM; 58% had IBP, and 36% had IDP. Infants of mothers with IBP had higher risks of necrotizing enterocolitis (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.55 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17–2.05]) and late-onset sepsis (adjusted RR = 1.26 [95% CI 1.07–1.48]) than infants of mothers without IDDM. There was some indication of higher in-hospital mortality risk among infants of mothers with IBP compared with those with IDP (adjusted RR = 1.33 [95% CI 1.00–1.79]). Among survivors evaluated at 18 to 22 months’ corrected age, average head circumference z score was lower for infants of mothers with IBP compared with those without IDDM, but there were no differences in risk of neurodevelopmental impairment. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of extremely preterm infants, infants of mothers with IBP had higher risks of necrotizing enterocolitis, sepsis, and small head circumference. PMID:27244849

Increased risk of lung cancer in individuals with a family history of the disease: A pooled analysis from the International Lung Cancer Consortium

PubMed Central

Coté, Michele L.; Liu, Mei; Bonassi, Stefano; Neri, Monica; Schwartz, Ann G.; Christiani, David C.; Spitz, Margaret R.; Muscat, Joshua E.; Rennert, Gad; Aben, Katja K.; Andrew, Angeline S.; Bencko, Vladimir; Bickeböller, Heike; Boffetta, Paolo; Brennan, Paul; Brenner, Hermann; Duell, Eric J.; Fabianova, Eleonora; Field, John K.; Foretova, Lenka; Friis, Søren; Harris, Curtis C.; Holcatova, Ivana; Hong, Yun-Chul; Isla, Dolores; Janout, Vladimir; Kiemeney, Lambertus A.; Kiyohara, Chikako; Lan, Qing; Lazarus, Philip; Lissowska, Jolanta; Marchand, Loic Le; Mates, Dana; Matsuo, Keitaro; Mayordomo, Jose I.; McLaughlin, John R.; Morgenstern, Hal; Müeller, Heiko; Orlow, Irene; Park, Bernard J.; Pinchev, Mila; Raji, Olaide Y.; Rennert, Hedy S.; Rudnai, Peter; Seow, Adeline; Stucker, Isabelle; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Teare, M. Dawn; Tjønnelan, Anne; Ugolini, Donatella; van der Heijden, Henricus F.M.; Wichmann, Erich; Wiencke, John K.; Woll, Penella J.; Yang, Ping; Zaridze, David; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Etzel, Carol J.; Hung, Rayjean J.

2012-01-01

Background and Methods Familial aggregation of lung cancer exists after accounting for cigarette smoking. However, the extent to which family history affects risk by smoking status, histology, relative type and ethnicity is not well described. This pooled analysis included 24 case-control studies in the International Lung Cancer Consortium. Each study collected age of onset/interview, gender, race/ethnicity, cigarette smoking, histology and first-degree family history of lung cancer. Data from 24,380 lung cancer cases and 23,305 healthy controls were analyzed. Unconditional logistic regression models and generalized estimating equations were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results Individuals with a first-degree relative with lung cancer had a 1.51-fold increase in risk of lung cancer, after adjustment for smoking and other potential confounders(95% CI: 1.39, 1.63). The association was strongest for those with a family history in a sibling, after adjustment (OR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.62, 2.05). No modifying effect by histologic type was found. Never smokers showed a lower association with positive familial history of lung cancer (OR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.52), slightly stronger for those with an affected sibling (OR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.93), after adjustment. Conclusions The increased risk among never smokers and similar magnitudes of the effect of family history on lung cancer risk across histological types suggests familial aggregation of lung cancer is independent of those associated with cigarette smoking. While the role of genetic variation in the etiology of lung cancer remains to be fully characterized, family history assessment is immediately available and those with a positive history represent a higher risk group. PMID:22436981

Serum Endotoxins and Flagellin and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Cohort

PubMed Central

Kong, So Yeon; Tran, Hao Quang; Gewirtz, Andrew T.; McKeown-Eyssen, Gail; Fedirko, Veronika; Romieu, Isabelle; Tjønneland, Anne; Olsen, Anja; Overvad, Kim; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Bastide, Nadia; Affret, Aurélie; Kühn, Tilman; Kaaks, Rudolf; Boeing, Heiner; Aleksandrova, Krasimira; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Kritikou, Maria; Vasilopoulou, Effie; Palli, Domenico; Krogh, Vittorio; Mattiello, Amalia; Tumino, Rosario; Naccarati, Alessio; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H.Bas; Peeters, Petra H.; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Quirós, J. Ramón; Sala, Núria; Sánchez, María-José; Huerta Castaño, José María; Barricarte, Aurelio; Dorronsoro, Miren; Werner, Mårten; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Bradbury, Kathryn E.; Freisling, Heinz; Stavropoulou, Faidra; Ferrari, Pietro; Gunter, Marc J.; Cross, Amanda J.; Riboli, Elio; Bruce, W. Robert

2017-01-01

Background Chronic inflammation and oxidative stress are thought to be involved in colorectal cancer (CRC) development. These processes may be contributed to by leakage of bacterial products, such as lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and flagellin, across the gut barrier. The objective of this study, nested within a prospective cohort, was to examine associations between circulating LPS and flagellin serum antibody levels and CRC risk. Methods 1,065 incident CRC cases (colon n=667; rectal n=398) were matched (1:1) to control subjects. Serum flagellin- and LPS-specific IgA and IgG levels were quantitated by ELISA. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for multiple relevant confouding factors. Results Overall, elevated anti-LPS and anti-flagellin biomarker levels were not associated with CRC risk. After testing potential interactions by various factors relevant for CRC risk and anti-LPS and anti-flagellin, sex was identified as a statistically significant interaction factor (pinteraction < 0.05 for all the biomarkers). Analyses stratified by sex showed a statistically significant positive CRC risk association for men (fully-adjusted OR for highest vs. lowest quartile for total anti-LPS+flagellin = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10-2.51; ptrend = 0.049) while a borderline statistically significant inverse association was observed for women (fully-adjusted OR= 0.70; 95%CI, 0.47-1.02; ptrend = 0.18). Conclusion In this prospective study on European populations, we found bacterial exposure levels to be positively associated to CRC risk among men while in women, a possible inverse association may exist. Impact Further studies are warranted to better clarify these preliminary observations. PMID:26823475

Using big data from health records from four countries to evaluate chronic disease outcomes: a study in 114 364 survivors of myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; Thuresson, Marcus; Yang, Erru; Blin, Patrick; Hunt, Phillip; Chung, Sheng-Chia; Stogiannis, Dimitris; Pujades-Rodriguez, Mar; Timmis, Adam; Denaxas, Spiros C.; Danchin, Nicolas; Stokes, Michael; Thomas-Delecourt, Florence; Emmas, Cathy; Hasvold, Pål; Jennings, Em; Johansson, Saga; Cohen, David J.; Jernberg, Tomas; Moore, Nicholas; Janzon, Magnus; Hemingway, Harry

2016-01-01

Abstract Aims To assess the international validity of using hospital record data to compare long-term outcomes in heart attack survivors. Methods and results We used samples of national, ongoing, unselected record sources to assess three outcomes: cause death; a composite of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and all-cause death; and hospitalized bleeding. Patients aged 65 years and older entered the study 1 year following the most recent discharge for acute MI in 2002–11 [n = 54 841 (Sweden), 53 909 (USA), 4653 (England), and 961 (France)]. Across each of the four countries, we found consistent associations with 12 baseline prognostic factors and each of the three outcomes. In each country, we observed high 3-year crude cumulative risks of all-cause death (from 19.6% [England] to 30.2% [USA]); the composite of MI, stroke, or death [from 26.0% (France) to 36.2% (USA)]; and hospitalized bleeding [from 3.1% (France) to 5.3% (USA)]. After adjustments for baseline risk factors, risks were similar across all countries [relative risks (RRs) compared with Sweden not statistically significant], but higher in the USA for all-cause death [RR USA vs. Sweden, 1.14 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.26)] and hospitalized bleeding [RR USA vs. Sweden, 1.54 (1.21–1.96)]. Conclusion The validity of using hospital record data is supported by the consistency of estimates across four countries of a high adjusted risk of death, further MI, and stroke in the chronic phase after MI. The possibility that adjusted risks of mortality and bleeding are higher in the USA warrants further study. PMID:29474617

The association between race and prostate cancer risk on initial biopsy in an equal access, multiethnic cohort

PubMed Central

Gaines, Alexis R.; Turner, Elizabeth L.; Moorman, Patricia G.; Freedland, Stephen J.; Keto, Christopher J.; McPhail, Megan E.; Grant, Delores J.; Vidal, Adriana C.

2014-01-01

Purpose Population-based studies have established a link between race and prostate cancer (PC) risk, but whether race predicts PC after adjusting for clinical characteristics is unclear. We investigated the association between race and risk of low- and high-grade PC in men undergoing initial prostate biopsy in an equal access medical center. Methods We conducted a retrospective record review of 887 men (48.6 % black, 51.4 % white) from the Durham Veterans Affairs Medical Center who underwent initial prostate biopsy between 2001 and 2009. Multivariable logistic regression analysis of race and biopsy outcome was conducted adjusting for age, body mass index, number of cores taken, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and digital rectal examination findings. Multinomial logistic regression was used to test the association between black race and PC grade (Gleason <7 vs. ≥7). Results Black men were younger at biopsy (61 vs. 65 years, p <0.001) and had a higher pre-biopsy PSA (6.6 vs. 5.8 ng/ml, p = 0.001). A total of 499 men had PC on biopsy (245 low grade; 254 high grade). In multivariable analyses, black race was significantly predictive of PC overall [odds ratio 1.50, p = 0.006] and high-grade PC [relative risk ratio (RRR) 1.84, p = 0.001], but was not significantly associated with low-grade PC (RRR 1.29, p = 0.139). Conclusion In an equal access healthcare facility, black race was associated with greater risk of PC detection on initial biopsy and of high-grade PC after adjusting for clinical characteristics. Additional investigation of mechanisms linking black race and PC risk and PC aggressiveness is needed. PMID:24879044

Socioeconomic factors and the risk of anencephaly in a Mexican population: a case-control study.

PubMed Central

Blanco Muñoz, Julia; Lacasaña, Marina; Borja Aburto, Victor Hugo; Torres Sánchez, Luisa Elvira; García García, Ana María; López Carrillo, Lizbeth

2005-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The study was designed to evaluate the association between socioeconomic level (as measured by maternal education, maternal occupation, and monthly family income) and anencephaly. METHODS: The authors conducted a case-control study using data from the Epidemiological Surveillance System Register for Neural Tube Defects for three states of the Mexican Republic: Puebla, Guerrero and the State of Mexico. Mothers of 151 cases of infants born with anencephaly and mothers of 151 control infants born during the period March 2000 to February 2001 were interviewed about their socioeconomic characteristics and other factors including reproductive history, use of prenatal care, use of tobacco and alcohol, fever during pregnancy, and folic acid supplementation. RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounders, a risk gradient was seen with decreasing maternal education. Women with less than a primary school education (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2, 7.6) and women who had completed primary school but had not completed junior high school (adjusted OR=2.2; 95% CI 0.9, 5.7) had higher risks of giving birth to an infant with anencephaly, compared to women with a higher educational level. A monthly income < or = 1,000 pesos (approximately dollars 100 U.S.) was also associated with a higher risk of anencephaly (OR=2.5; 95% CI 1.2, 5.1). Women employed in industry or agriculture during the acute risk period (three months prior to conception to one month after conception) had a risk 6.5 times (95% CI 1.4, 29.6) that of professional and business women. CONCLUSIONS: This study helps to identify groups that may be especially vulnerable to this type of congenital malformation so that primary and secondary preventive strategies can be targeted to these groups. PMID:15736330

Food Security and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among Adults in the United States: Findings From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003–2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Little is known about the relationship between food security status and predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. The objective of this study was to examine the associations between food security status and cardiovascular disease risk factors and predicted 10-year risk in a national sample of US adults. Methods A cross-sectional analysis using data from 10,455 adults aged 20 years or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003–2008 was conducted. Four levels of food security status were defined by using 10 questions. Results Among all participants, 83.9% had full food security, 6.7% had marginal food security, 5.8% had low food security, and 3.6% had very low food security. After adjustment, mean hemoglobin A1c was 0.15% greater and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was 0.8 mg/L greater among participants with very low food security than among those with full food security. The adjusted mean concentration of cotinine among participants with very low food security was almost double that of participants with full food security (112.8 vs 62.0 ng/mL, P < .001). No significant associations between food security status and systolic blood pressure or concentrations of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were observed. Participants aged 30 to 59 years with very low food security were more likely to have a predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk greater than 20% than fully food secure participants (adjusted prevalence ratio, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.31–4.31). Conclusion Adults aged 30 to 59 years with very low food security showed evidence of increased predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. PMID:24309090

Self-Reported Sleep Duration in Relation to Incident Stroke Symptoms: Nuances by Body Mass and Race from the REGARDS Study

PubMed Central

Ruiter Petrov, Megan E.; Letter, Abraham J.; Howard, Virginia J.; Kleindorfer, Dawn

2013-01-01

Objectives Determine, amongst employed persons with low risk for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), if sleep duration is associated with incident stroke symptoms, independent of body mass index (BMI), and if sleep duration mediates racial differences in stroke symptoms. Methods In 2008, 5,666 employed participants (US blacks and whites, ≥45years) from the longitudinal and nationally-representative REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, self-reported their average sleep duration. Participants had no history of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or stroke symptoms, and were low risk for OSA. After the sleep assessment, self-reported stroke symptoms were collected at six-month intervals, up to 3 years (M=751 days). Interval-censored, parametric survival models were conducted to estimate hazard ratios predicting time from sleep duration measurement (<6, 6-6.9, 7-7.9(reference), 8-8.9, ≥9 hours) to first stroke symptom. Adjusted models included demographics, stroke risk factors, psychological symptoms, health behaviors, and diet. Results During follow-up, 224 participants reported ≥1 stroke symptom. In the unadjusted model, short sleep (<6hrs) significantly predicted increased risk of stroke symptoms, but not in adjusted models. Stratification by BMI revealed a significant association between short sleep duration and stroke symptoms only for normal BMI persons in unadjusted (HR: 2.93, 95%CI: 1.38-6.22) and fully adjusted models (HR: 4.19, 95%CI: 1.62-10.84). The mediating effect of sleep duration on the relationship between race and stroke symptoms was borderline significant in normal weight participants. Conclusions Among middle-aged to older employed individuals of normal weight and low risk of OSA, self-reported short sleep duration is prospectively associated with increased risk of stroke symptoms. PMID:24119626

Social and Behavioral Characteristics of Young Adult Drink/Drivers Adjusted for Level of Alcohol Use

PubMed Central

Bingham, C. Raymond; Elliott, Michael R.; Shope, Jean T.

2007-01-01

Background Alcohol consumption and drink/driving are positively correlated and many predictors of alcohol use also predict drink/driving. Past research has not fully distinguished the contributions of personal risk factors from the level of alcohol use in the prediction of drink/driving. As a result, the extent to which predictors are specific to drink/driving, versus due to a mutual association to alcohol use, is unclear. Methods This study examined the unique and shared risk factors for drink/driving and alcohol use, and examined the attributable risk (AR) associated with predictors of drink/driving while adjusting for alcohol use. Study data were from a telephone survey of 3,480 Michigan-licensed young adults who were drinkers. Four groups of drink/drivers were formed based on the prior 12-month maximum severity of drink/driving: (1) never drink/driving; (2) driving at least once within an hour of 1 or 2 drinks; (3) driving within an hour of 3 or more drinks or while feeling the effects of alcohol; and (4) drinking while driving. Results Lower perceived risk of drink/driving, greater social support for drinking and drink/driving, greater aggression and delinquency, more cigarette smoking, and more risky driving behaviors uniquely predicted drink/driving severity in models adjusted for alcohol use. The largest ARs were associated with social support for drinking and drink/driving and perceived risk of drink/driving. Conclusions These results confirm that alcohol use and drink/driving share risk factors, but also indicate that part of the variation in these factors is specific to drink/driving. Implications for interventions to reduce drink/driving are discussed. PMID:17374045

Antipsychotics and mortality: adjusting for mortality risk scores to address confounding by terminal illness.

PubMed

Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F

2015-03-01

To determine whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed for nursing home (NH) populations affect the magnitude of previously observed associations between mortality and conventional and atypical antipsychotics. Cohort study. A merged data set of Medicaid, Medicare, Minimum Data Set (MDS), Online Survey Certification and Reporting system, and National Death Index for 2001 to 2005. Dual-eligible individuals aged 65 and older who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (N=75,445). Three mortality risk scores (Mortality Risk Index Score, Revised MDS Mortality Risk Index, Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool) were derived for each participant using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The effect of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PSs) on the association between antipsychotic medication and mortality was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality, with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users, suggesting potential confounding, were much lower within PS deciles than the imbalances in the full cohort. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS-only adjustment versus 2.20, 2.20, and 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. Although causality cannot be proven based on nonrandomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting explanations other than causality for the greater mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics than with atypical antipsychotics. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Sunlight exposure and cardiovascular risk factors in the REGARDS study: a cross-sectional split-sample analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Previous research has suggested that vitamin D and sunlight are related to cardiovascular outcomes, but associations between sunlight and risk factors have not been investigated. We examined whether increased sunlight exposure was related to improved cardiovascular risk factor status. Methods Residential histories merged with satellite, ground monitor, and model reanalysis data were used to determine previous-year sunlight radiation exposure for 17,773 black and white participants aged 45+ from the US. Exploratory and confirmatory analyses were performed by randomly dividing the sample into halves. Logistic regression models were used to examine relationships with cardiovascular risk factors. Results The lowest, compared to the highest quartile of insolation exposure was associated with lower high-density lipoprotein levels in adjusted exploratory (−2.7 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −4.2, −1.2]) and confirmatory (−1.5 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −3.0, −0.1]) models. The lowest, compared to the highest quartile of insolation exposure was associated with higher systolic blood pressure levels in unadjusted exploratory and confirmatory, as well as the adjusted exploratory model (2.3 mmHg [95% confidence interval: 0.8, 3.8]), but not the adjusted confirmatory model (1.6 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −0.5, 3.7]). Conclusions The results of this study suggest that lower long-term sunlight exposure has an association with lower high-density lipoprotein levels. However, all associations were weak, thus it is not known if insolation may affect cardiovascular outcomes through these risk factors. PMID:24946776

Risk of Suicide Attempt in Poststroke Patients: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Harnod, Tomor; Lin, Cheng-Li; Kao, Chia-Hung

2018-01-10

This nationwide population-based cohort study evaluated the risk of and risk factors for suicide attempt in poststroke patients in Taiwan. The poststroke and nonstroke cohorts consisted of 713 690 patients and 1 426 009 controls, respectively. Adults (aged >18 years) who received new stroke diagnoses according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM ; codes 430-438) between 2000 and 2011 were included in the poststroke cohort. We calculated the adjusted hazard ratio for suicide attempt ( ICD-9-CM codes E950-E959) after adjustment for age, sex, monthly income, urbanization level, occupation category, and various comorbidities. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to measure the cumulative incidence of suicide attempt, and the Fine and Gray method was used as a competing event when estimating death subhazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals between groups. The cumulative incidence of suicide attempt was higher in the poststroke cohort, and the adjusted hazard ratio of suicide attempt was 2.20 (95% confidence interval, 2.04-2.37) compared with that of the controls. The leading risk factors for poststroke suicide attempt were earning low monthly income (<660 US dollars), living in less urbanized regions, doing manual labor, and having a stroke before age 50 years. The attempted suicide risk did not differ significantly between male and female patients in this study. These results convey crucial information to clinicians and governments for preventing suicide attempt in poststroke patients in Taiwan and other Asian countries. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The effect of a decision aid intervention on decision making about coronary heart disease risk reduction: secondary analyses of a randomized trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Decision aids offer promise as a practical solution to improve patient decision making about coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention medications and help patients choose medications to which they are likely to adhere. However, little data is available on decision aids designed to promote adherence. Methods In this paper, we report on secondary analyses of a randomized trial of a CHD adherence intervention (second generation decision aid plus tailored messages) versus usual care in an effort to understand how the decision aid facilitates adherence. We focus on data collected from the primary study visit, when intervention participants presented 45 minutes early to a previously scheduled provider visit; viewed the decision aid, indicating their intent for CHD risk reduction after each decision aid component (individualized risk assessment and education, values clarification, and coaching); and filled out a post-decision aid survey assessing their knowledge, perceived risk, decisional conflict, and intent for CHD risk reduction. Control participants did not present early and received usual care from their provider. Following the provider visit, participants in both groups completed post-visit surveys assessing the number and quality of CHD discussions with their provider, their intent for CHD risk reduction, and their feelings about the decision aid. Results We enrolled 160 patients into our study (81 intervention, 79 control). Within the decision aid group, the decision aid significantly increased knowledge of effective CHD prevention strategies (+21 percentage points; adjusted p<.0001) and the accuracy of perceived CHD risk (+33 percentage points; adjusted p<.0001), and significantly decreased decisional conflict (-0.63; adjusted p<.0001). Comparing between study groups, the decision aid also significantly increased CHD prevention discussions with providers (+31 percentage points; adjusted p<.0001) and improved perceptions of some features of patient-provider interactions. Further, it increased participants’ intentions for any effective CHD risk reducing strategies (+21 percentage points; 95% CI 5 to 37 percentage points), with a majority of the effect from the educational component of the decision aid. Ninety-nine percent of participants found the decision aid easy to understand and 93% felt it easy to use. Conclusions Decision aids can play an important role in improving decisions about CHD prevention and increasing patient-provider discussions and intent to reduce CHD risk. PMID:24575882

Relationship between mobility, violence and HIV/STI among female sex workers in Andhra Pradesh, India

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Violence and mobility have been identified as critical factors contributing to the spread of HIV worldwide. This study aimed to assess the independent and combined associations of mobility and violence with sexual risk behaviors and HIV, STI prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) in India. Methods Data were drawn from a cross-sectional, bio-behavioral survey conducted among 2042 FSWs across five districts of southern India in 2005–06. Regression models were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for sexual risk behaviors and HIV infection based on experience of violence and mobility after adjusting for socio-demographic and sex work related characteristics. Results One-fifth of FSWs (19%) reported experiencing violence; 68% reported travelling outside their current place of residence at least once in the past year and practicing sex work during their visit. Mobile FSWs were more likely to report violence compared to their counterparts (23% vs. 10%, p < 0.001). Approximately 1 in 5 tested positive for HIV. In adjusted models, FSWs reporting both mobility and violence as compared to their counterparts were more likely to be infected with HIV (Adjusted odds ratio (adjusted OR): 2.07, 95% CI: 1.42–3.03) and to report unprotected sex with occasional (adjusted OR: 2.86, 95% CI: 1.76–4.65) and regular clients (adjusted OR: 2.07, 95% CI: 1.40–3.06). Conclusions The findings indicate that mobility and violence were independently associated with HIV infection. Notably, the combined effect of mobility and violence posed greater HIV risk than their independent effect. These results point to the need for the provision of an enabling environment and safe spaces for FSWs who are mobile, to augment existing efforts to reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS. PMID:22967276

Inter-arm blood pressure difference and mortality: a cohort study in an asymptomatic primary care population at elevated cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Clark, Christopher E; Taylor, Rod S; Butcher, Isabella; Stewart, Marlene CW; Price, Jackie; Fowkes, F Gerald R; Shore, Angela C; Campbell, John L

2016-01-01

Background Differences in blood pressure between arms are associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in cohorts with established vascular disease or substantially elevated cardiovascular risk. Aim To explore the association of inter-arm difference (IAD) with mortality in a community-dwelling cohort that is free of cardiovascular disease. Design and setting Cohort analysis of a randomised controlled trial in central Scotland, from April 1998 to October 2008. Method Volunteers from Lanarkshire, Glasgow, and Edinburgh, free of pre-existing vascular disease and with an ankle-brachial index ≤0.95, had systolic blood pressure measured in both arms at recruitment. Inter-arm blood pressure differences were calculated and examined for cross-sectional associations and differences in prospective survival. Outcome measures were cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality during mean follow-up of 8.2 years. Results Based on a single pair of measurements, 60% of 3350 participants had a systolic IAD ≥5 mmHg and 38% ≥10 mmHg. An IAD ≥5 mmHg was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19 to 3.07) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.44, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.79). Within the subgroup of 764 participants who had hypertension, IADs of ≥5 mmHg or ≥10 mmHg were associated with both cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR 2.63, 95% CI = 0.97 to 7.02, and adjusted HR 2.96, 95% CI = 1.27 to 6.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.66, and adjusted HR 1.63, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.50, respectively). IADs ≥15 mmHg were not associated with survival differences in this population. Conclusion Systolic IADs in blood pressure are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, including mortality, in a large cohort of people free of pre-existing vascular disease. PMID:27080315

Non-Radiation Risk Factors for Leukemia: A case-control study among Chornobyl Cleanup Workers in Ukraine

PubMed Central

Gudzenko, Nataliya; Hatch, Maureen; Bazyka, Dimitry; Dyagil, Irina; Reiss, Robert F; Brenner, Alina; Chumak, Vadim; Babkina, Natalie; Zablotska, Lydia B; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

2015-01-01

Background Occupational and environmental exposure to chemicals such as benzene has been linked to increased risk of leukemia. Cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption have also been found to affect leukemia risk. Previous analyses in a large cohort of Chornobyl clean-up workers in Ukraine found significant radiation-related increased risk for all leukemia types. We investigated the potential for additional effects of occupational and lifestyle factors on leukemia risk in this radiation-exposed cohort. Methods In a case-control study of chronic lymphocytic and other leukemias among Chornobyl cleanup workers, we collected data on a range of non-radiation exposures. We evaluated these other potential risk factors in analyses adjusting for estimated bone marrow radiation dose. We calculated Odds Ratios and 95% Confidence Intervals in relation to lifestyle factors and occupational hazards. Results After adjusting for radiation, we found no clear association of leukemia risk with smoking or alcohol but identified a two-fold elevated risk for non-CLL leukemia with occupational exposure to petroleum (OR=2.28; 95% Confidence Interval 1.13, 6.79). Risks were particularly high for myeloid leukemias. No associations with risk factors other than radiation were found for chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Conclusions These data – the first from a working population in Ukraine – add to evidence from several previous reports of excess leukemia morbidity in groups exposed environmentally or occupationally to petroleum or its products. PMID:26117815

Influence of the National Trauma Data Bank on the study of trauma outcomes: is it time to set research best practices to further enhance its impact?

PubMed

Haider, Adil H; Saleem, Taimur; Leow, Jeffrey J; Villegas, Cassandra V; Kisat, Mehreen; Schneider, Eric B; Haut, Elliott R; Stevens, Kent A; Cornwell, Edward E; MacKenzie, Ellen J; Efron, David T

2012-05-01

Risk-adjusted analyses are critical in evaluating trauma outcomes. The National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) is a statistically robust registry that allows such analyses; however, analytical techniques are not yet standardized. In this study, we examined peer-reviewed manuscripts published using NTDB data, with particular attention to characteristics strongly associated with trauma outcomes. Our objective was to determine if there are substantial variations in the methodology and quality of risk-adjusted analyses and therefore, whether development of best practices for risk-adjusted analyses is warranted. A database of all studies using NTDB data published through December 2010 was created by searching PubMed and Embase. Studies with multivariate risk-adjusted analyses were examined for their central question, main outcomes measures, analytical techniques, covariates in adjusted analyses, and handling of missing data. Of 286 NTDB publications, 122 performed a multivariable adjusted analysis. These studies focused on clinical outcomes (51 studies), public health policy or injury prevention (30), quality (16), disparities (15), trauma center designation (6), or scoring systems (4). Mortality was the main outcome in 98 of these studies. There were considerable differences in the covariates used for case adjustment. The 3 covariates most frequently controlled for were age (95%), Injury Severity Score (85%), and sex (78%). Up to 43% of studies did not control for the 5 basic covariates necessary to conduct a risk-adjusted analysis of trauma mortality. Less than 10% of studies used clustering to adjust for facility differences or imputation to handle missing data. There is significant variability in how risk-adjusted analyses using data from the NTDB are performed. Best practices are needed to further improve the quality of research from the NTDB. Copyright © 2012 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perinatal and maternal outcomes in planned home and obstetric unit births in women at ‘higher risk’ of complications: secondary analysis of the Birthplace national prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Li, Y; Townend, J; Rowe, R; Brocklehurst, P; Knight, M; Linsell, L; Macfarlane, A; McCourt, C; Newburn, M; Marlow, N; Pasupathy, D; Redshaw, M; Sandall, J; Silverton, L; Hollowell, J

2015-01-01

Objective To explore and compare perinatal and maternal outcomes in women at ‘higher risk’ of complications planning home versus obstetric unit (OU) birth. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting OUs and planned home births in England. Population 8180 ‘higher risk’ women in the Birthplace cohort. Methods We used Poisson regression to calculate relative risks adjusted for maternal characteristics. Sensitivity analyses explored possible effects of differences in risk between groups and alternative outcome measures. Main outcome measures Composite perinatal outcome measure encompassing ‘intrapartum related mortality and morbidity’ (intrapartum stillbirth, early neonatal death, neonatal encephalopathy, meconium aspiration syndrome, brachial plexus injury, fractured humerus or clavicle) and neonatal admission within 48 hours for more than 48 hours. Two composite maternal outcome measures capturing intrapartum interventions/adverse maternal outcomes and straightforward birth. Results The risk of ‘intrapartum related mortality and morbidity’ or neonatal admission for more than 48 hours was lower in planned home births than planned OU births [adjusted relative risks (RR) 0.50, 95% CI 0.31–0.81]. Adjustment for clinical risk factors did not materially affect this finding. The direction of effect was reversed for the more restricted outcome measure ‘intrapartum related mortality and morbidity’ (RR adjusted for parity 1.92, 95% CI 0.97–3.80). Maternal interventions were lower in planned home births. Conclusions The babies of ‘higher risk’ women who plan birth in an OU appear more likely to be admitted to neonatal care than those whose mothers plan birth at home, but it is unclear if this reflects a real difference in morbidity. Rates of intrapartum related morbidity and mortality did not differ statistically significantly between settings at the 5% level but a larger study would be required to rule out a clinically important difference between the groups. PMID:25603762

Lung function and airway obstruction: associations with circulating markers of cardiac function and incident heart failure in older men—the British Regional Heart Study

PubMed Central

Wannamethee, S Goya; Shaper, A Gerald; Papacosta, Olia; Lennon, Lucy; Welsh, Paul; Whincup, Peter H

2016-01-01

Aims The association between lung function and cardiac markers and heart failure (HF) has been little studied in the general older population. We have examined the association between lung function and airway obstruction with cardiac markers N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and risk of incident HF in older men. Methods and results Prospective study of 3242 men aged 60–79 years without prevalent HF or myocardial infarction followed up for an average period of 13 years, in whom 211 incident HF cases occurred. Incident HF was examined in relation to % predicted FEV1 and FVC. The Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung Diseases spirometry criteria were used to define airway obstruction. Reduced FEV1, but not FVC in the normal range, was significantly associated with increased risk of HF after adjustment for established HF risk factors including inflammation. The adjusted HRs comparing men in the 6–24th percentile with the highest quartile were 1.91 (1.24 to 2.94) and 1.30 (0.86 to 1.96) for FEV1 and FVC, respectively. FEV1 and FVC were inversely associated with NT-proBNP and cTnT, although the association between FEV1 and incident HF remained after adjustment for NT-proBNP and cTnT. Compared with normal subjects (FEV1/FVC ≥0.70 and FVC≥80%), moderate or severe (FEV1/FVC <0.70 and FEV1 <80%) airflow obstruction was independently associated with HF ((adjusted relative risk 1.59 (1.08 to 2.33)). Airflow restriction (FEV1/FVC ≥0.70 and FVC <80%) was not independently associated with HF. Conclusions Reduced FEV1 reflecting airflow obstruction is associated with cardiac dysfunction and increased risk of incident HF in older men. PMID:26811343

Cost-effectiveness of a new short-stay unit to "rule out" acute myocardial infarction in low risk patients.

PubMed

Gaspoz, J M; Lee, T H; Weinstein, M C; Cook, E F; Goldman, P; Komaroff, A L; Goldman, L

1994-11-01

This study attempted to determine the safety and costs of a new short-stay unit for low risk patients who may be admitted to a hospital to rule out myocardial infarction or ischemia. One strategy to reduce the costs of ruling out acute myocardial infarction in low risk patients is to develop alternatives to coronary care units. The short-term and 6-month clinical outcomes and costs for 592 patients admitted to a short-stay coronary observation unit at Brigham and Women's Hospital with a low (< or = 10%) probability of acute myocardial infarction were compared with those for 924 consecutive comparison patients who were eligible for the same unit but were admitted to other hospital settings or discharged home. Actual costs were calculated using detailed cost-accounting methods that incorporated nursing intensity weights. The rate of major complications, recurrent myocardial infarction or cardiac death during 6 months after the initial presentation of the 592 patients admitted to the coronary observation unit was similar to that of the 924 comparison patients before and after adjustment for clinical factors influencing triage and initial diagnoses (adjusted relative risk 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 1.53). Their median total costs (25th, 75th percentile) at 6 months ($1,927; 1,455, 3,650) were significantly lower than for comparison patients admitted to the wards $4,712; 1,868, 11,187), to stepdown or intermediate care units ($4,031; 2,069, 9,169) or to the coronary care unit ($9,201; 3,171, 20,011) but were higher than for comparison patients discharged home from the emergency department ($403; 403,927) before and after the same adjustments (all adjusted p < 0.0001). These data suggest that the coronary observation unit may be a safe and cost-saving alternative to current triage strategies for patients with a low risk of acute myocardial infarction admitted from the emergency department. Its replication in other hospitals should be tested.

Ethnic Differences in Disability Prevalence and Their Determinants Studied over a 20-Year Period: A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Williams, Emily D.; Tillin, Therese; Whincup, Peter; Forouhi, Nita G.; Chaturvedi, Nishi

2012-01-01

Background To compare disability prevalence rates in the major ethnic groups in the UK and understand the risk factors contributing to differences identified. It was hypothesised that Indian Asian and African Caribbean people would experience higher rates of disability compared with Europeans. Methods Data was collected from 888 European, 636 Indian Asian and 265 African Caribbean men and women, aged 58–88 years at 20-year follow-up of community-based cohort study, based in West London. Disability was measured using a performance-based locomotor function test and self-reported questionnaires on functional limitation, and instrumental (IADL) and basic activities of daily living (ADL). Results The mean (SD) age of participants at follow-up was 69.6 (6.2) years. Compared with Europeans, Indian Asian people were significantly more likely to experience all of the disability outcomes than Europeans; this persisted after adjustment for socioeconomic, behavioural, adiposity and chronic disease risk factors measured at baseline (locomotor dysfunction: adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.20, 95% CI 1.56–3.11; functional limitation: OR 2.77, 2.01–3.81; IADL impairment: OR 3.12, 2.20–4.41; ADL impairment: OR 1.58, 1.11–2.24). In contrast, a modest excess risk of disability was observed in African Caribbeans, which was abolished after adjustment (e.g. locomotor dysfunction: OR 1.37, 0.90–1.91); indeed a reduced risk of ADL impairment appeared after multivariable adjustment (OR from 0.99, 0.68–1.45 to 0.59, 0.38–0.93), compared with Europeans. Conclusions Substantially elevated risk of disability was observed among Indian Asian participants, unexplained by known factors. A greater understanding of determinants of disability and normative functional beliefs of healthy aging is required in this population to inform intervention efforts to prevent disability. PMID:23029128

Seven to Eight Hours of Sleep a Night Is Associated with a Lower Prevalence of the Metabolic Syndrome and Reduced Overall Cardiometabolic Risk in Adults

PubMed Central

Chaput, Jean-Philippe; McNeil, Jessica; Després, Jean-Pierre; Bouchard, Claude; Tremblay, Angelo

2013-01-01

Background Previous studies looking at the relationship between sleep duration and the metabolic syndrome have only used a dichotomous approach (presence/absence) and failed to adjust for important confounding factors. The objective of the present study was to examine the association between self-reported sleep duration and features of the metabolic syndrome in adults. Methods A cross-sectional analysis from the Quebec Family Study (Canada) was conducted on 810 participants aged 18 to 65 years. Participants were categorized as short (≤6 h), adequate (7–8 h) or long (≥9 h) sleepers. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s criteria. Results Overall, 24.6% of the sample had the metabolic syndrome. A U-shaped relationship between sleep duration and the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (33.3%, 22.0% and 28.8% in short, adequate and long sleepers, respectively) was observed (P<0.01). Only short sleepers had a significant increase in the odds of having the metabolic syndrome (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.08–2.84) compared to adequate sleepers after adjustment for age, sex, smoking habits, highest education level, total annual family income, alcohol consumption, coffee intake, menopausal status, daily caloric intake, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Likewise, the clustered cardiometabolic risk score (i.e. continuous risk score based on the metabolic syndrome components) was significantly higher in short sleepers compared to adequate sleepers after adjustment for covariates (P<0.05). Conclusion Sleeping ≤6 h per night is associated with an elevated cardiometabolic risk score and an increase in the odds of having the metabolic syndrome after adjusting for possible confounders. These results strongly suggest that short sleep duration is a risk factor for the metabolic syndrome. PMID:24039808

Antidepressant Medication Use and its Association with Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in the Reasons for Geographic and Ethnic Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study

PubMed Central

Hansen, Richard A.; Khodneva, Yulia; Glasser, Stephen P.; Qian, Jingjing; Redmond, Nicole; Safford, Monika M.

2018-01-01

Background Mixed evidence suggests second-generation antidepressants may increase risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. Objective Assess whether antidepressant use is associated with acute coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular disease death, and all-cause mortality. Methods Secondary analyses of the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) longitudinal cohort study were conducted. Use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, bupropion, nefazodone, and trazodone was measured during the baseline (2003-2007) in-home visit. Outcomes of coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular disease death, and all-cause mortality were assessed every 6 months and adjudicated by medical record review. Cox proportional hazards time-to-event analysis followed patients until their first event on or before December 31, 2011, iteratively adjusting for covariates. Results Among 29,616 participants, 3,458 (11.7%) used an antidepressant of interest. Intermediate models adjusting for everything but physical and mental health found an increased risk of acute coronary heart disease (Hazard Ratio=1.21; 95% CI 1.04-1.41), stroke (Hazard Ratio=1.28; 95% CI 1.02-1.60), cardiovascular disease death (Hazard Ratio =1.29; 95% CI 1.09-1.53), and all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio=1.27; 95% CI 1.15-1.41) for antidepressant users. Risk estimates trended in this direction for all outcomes in the fully adjusted model, but only remained statistically associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio=1.12; 95% CI 1.01-1.24). This risk was attenuated in sensitivity analyses censoring follow-up time at 2-years (Hazard Ratio=1.37; 95% CI 1.11-1.68). Conclusions In fully adjusted models antidepressant use was associated with a small increase in all-cause mortality. PMID:26783360

Risk adjustment and the fear of markets: the case of Belgium.

PubMed

Schokkaert, E; Van de Voorde, C

2000-02-01

In Belgium the management and administration of the compulsory and universal health insurance is left to a limited number of non-governmental non-profit sickness funds. Since 1995 these sickness funds are partially financed in a prospective way. The risk adjustment scheme is based on a regression model to explain medical expenditures for different social groups. Medical supply is taken out of the formula to construct risk-adjusted capitation payments. The risk-adjustment formula still leaves scope for risk selection. At the same time, the sickness funds were not given the instruments to exert a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. As a consequence, Belgium runs the danger of ending up in a situation with little incentives for efficiency and considerable profits from cream skimming.

New arrows in the quiver for targeting care management: high-risk versus high-opportunity case identification.

PubMed

Bernstein, Richard H

2007-01-01

"Care management" purposefully obscures the distinctions between disease and case management and stresses their common features: action in the present to prevent adverse future outcomes and costs. It includes identifying a high-need population by referrals, screening, or data analysis, assessing those likely to benefit from interventions, intervening, evaluating the intervention, and adjusting interventions when needed. High-risk individuals can be identified using at least 9 techniques, from referrals and questionnaires to retrospective claims analysis and predictive models. Other than referrals, software based on the risk-adjustment methodology that we have adapted can incorporate all these methodologies. Because the risk adjustment employs extensive case mix and severity adjustment, it provides care managers with 3 innovative ways to identify not only high-risk individuals but also high-opportunity cases.

Solving the Value Equation: Assessing Surgeon Performance Using Risk-Adjusted Quality-Cost Diagrams and Surgical Outcomes.

PubMed

Knechtle, William S; Perez, Sebastian D; Raval, Mehul V; Sullivan, Patrick S; Duwayri, Yazan M; Fernandez, Felix; Sharma, Joe; Sweeney, John F

Quality-cost diagrams have been used previously to assess interventions and their cost-effectiveness. This study explores the use of risk-adjusted quality-cost diagrams to compare the value provided by surgeons by presenting cost and outcomes simultaneously. Colectomy cases from a single institution captured in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were linked to hospital cost-accounting data to determine costs per encounter. Risk adjustment models were developed and observed average cost and complication rates per surgeon were compared to expected cost and complication rates using the diagrams. Surgeons were surveyed to determine if the diagrams could provide information that would result in practice adjustment. Of 55 surgeons surveyed on the utility of the diagrams, 92% of respondents believed the diagrams were useful. The diagrams seemed intuitive to interpret, and making risk-adjusted comparisons accounted for patient differences in the evaluation.

Sperm competition risk drives rapid ejaculate adjustments mediated by seminal fluid

PubMed Central

Steeves, Tammy E; Gemmell, Neil J; Rosengrave, Patrice C

2017-01-01

In many species, males can make rapid adjustments to ejaculate performance in response to sperm competition risk; however, the mechanisms behind these changes are not understood. Here, we manipulate male social status in an externally fertilising fish, chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and find that in less than 48 hr, males can upregulate sperm velocity when faced with an increased risk of sperm competition. Using a series of in vitro sperm manipulation and competition experiments, we show that rapid changes in sperm velocity are mediated by seminal fluid and the effect of seminal fluid on sperm velocity directly impacts paternity share and therefore reproductive success. These combined findings, completely consistent with sperm competition theory, provide unequivocal evidence that sperm competition risk drives plastic adjustment of ejaculate quality, that seminal fluid harbours the mechanism for the rapid adjustment of sperm velocity and that fitness benefits accrue to males from such adjustment. PMID:29084621

Sperm competition risk drives rapid ejaculate adjustments mediated by seminal fluid.

PubMed

Bartlett, Michael J; Steeves, Tammy E; Gemmell, Neil J; Rosengrave, Patrice C

2017-10-31

In many species, males can make rapid adjustments to ejaculate performance in response to sperm competition risk; however, the mechanisms behind these changes are not understood. Here, we manipulate male social status in an externally fertilising fish, chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), and find that in less than 48 hr, males can upregulate sperm velocity when faced with an increased risk of sperm competition. Using a series of in vitro sperm manipulation and competition experiments, we show that rapid changes in sperm velocity are mediated by seminal fluid and the effect of seminal fluid on sperm velocity directly impacts paternity share and therefore reproductive success. These combined findings, completely consistent with sperm competition theory, provide unequivocal evidence that sperm competition risk drives plastic adjustment of ejaculate quality, that seminal fluid harbours the mechanism for the rapid adjustment of sperm velocity and that fitness benefits accrue to males from such adjustment.

Risk and Protective Factors at Age 16: Psychological Adjustment in Children With a Cleft Lip and/or Palate.

PubMed

Feragen, Kristin Billaud; Stock, Nicola Marie; Kvalem, Ingela Lundin

2015-09-01

Explore psychological functioning in adolescents with a cleft at age 16 from a broad perspective, including cognitive, emotional, behavioral, appearance-related, and psychosocial adjustment. High-risk groups were identified within each area of adjustment to investigate whether vulnerable adolescents were found across domains or whether risk was limited to specific areas of adjustment. Cross-sectional data based on psychological assessments at age 16 (N = 857). The effect of gender, cleft visibility, and the presence of an additional condition were investigated on all outcome variables. Results were compared with large national samples. Hopkins Symptom Checklist, Harter Self-Perception Scale for Adolescents, Child Experience Questionnaire, and Satisfaction With Appearance scale. The main factor influencing psychological adjustment across domains was gender, with girls in general reporting more psychological problems, as seen in reference groups. The presence of an additional condition also negatively affected some of the measures. No support was found for cleft visibility as a risk factor except for dissatisfaction with appearance. Correlation analyses of risk groups seem to point to an association between social and emotional risk and between social risk and dissatisfaction with appearance. Associations between other domains were found to be weak. The results point to areas of both risk and strength in adolescents born with a cleft lip and/or palate. Future research should investigate how protective factors could counteract potential risk in adolescents with a cleft.

The contribution of gestational age, area deprivation and mother’s country of birth to ethnic variations in infant mortality in England and Wales: A national cohort study using routinely collected data

PubMed Central

Quigley, Maria A.; Dattani, Nirupa; Gray, Ron; Jayaweera, Hiranthi; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J.; Macfarlane, Alison; Hollowell, Jennifer

2018-01-01

Objectives We aimed to describe ethnic variations in infant mortality and explore the contribution of area deprivation, mother’s country of birth, and prematurity to these variations. Methods We analyzed routine birth and death data on singleton live births (gestational age≥22 weeks) in England and Wales, 2006–2012. Infant mortality by ethnic group was analyzed using logistic regression with adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and gestational age. Results In the 4,634,932 births analyzed, crude infant mortality rates were higher in Pakistani, Black Caribbean, Black African, and Bangladeshi infants (6.92, 6.00, 5.17 and 4.40 per 1,000 live births, respectively vs. 2.87 in White British infants). Adjustment for maternal sociodemographic characteristics changed the results little. Further adjustment for gestational age strongly attenuated the risk in Black Caribbean (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.89–1.17) and Black African infants (1.17, 1.06–1.29) but not in Pakistani (2.32, 2.15–2.50), Bangladeshi (1.47, 1.28–1.69), and Indian infants (1.24, 1.11–1.38). Ethnic variations in infant mortality differed significantly between term and preterm infants. At term, South Asian groups had higher risks which cannot be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. In preterm infants, adjustment for degree of prematurity (<28, 28–31, 32–33, 34–36 weeks) fully explained increased risks in Black but not Pakistani and Bangladeshi infants. Sensitivity analyses with further adjustment for small for gestational age, or excluding deaths due to congenital anomalies did not fully explain the excess risk in South Asian groups. Conclusions Higher infant mortality in South Asian and Black infants does not appear to be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. Higher proportions of very premature infants appear to explain increased risks in Black infants but not in South Asian groups. Strategies targeting the prevention and management of preterm birth in Black groups and suboptimal birthweight and modifiable risk factors for congenital anomalies in South Asian groups might help reduce ethnic inequalities in infant mortality. PMID:29649290

Comparing the association of GFR estimated by the CKD-EPI and MDRD study equations and mortality: the third national health and nutrition examination survey (NHANES III)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation for estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFRCKD-EPI) improves GFR estimation compared with the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation (eGFRMDRD) but its association with mortality in a nationally representative population sample in the US has not been studied. Methods We examined the association between eGFR and mortality among 16,010 participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Primary predictors were eGFRCKD-EPI and eGFRMDRD. Outcomes of interest were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Improvement in risk categorization with eGFRCKD-EPI was evaluated using adjusted relative hazard (HR) and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Results Overall, 26.9% of the population was reclassified to higher eGFR categories and 2.2% to lower eGFR categories by eGFRCKD-EPI, reducing the proportion of prevalent CKD classified as stage 3–5 from 45.6% to 28.8%. There were 3,620 deaths (1,540 from CVD) during 215,082 person-years of follow-up (median, 14.3 years). Among those with eGFRMDRD 30–59 ml/min/1.73 m2, 19.4% were reclassified to eGFRCKD-EPI 60–89 ml/min/1.73 m2 and these individuals had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.34-0.84) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.96) compared with those not reclassified. Among those with eGFRMDRD >60 ml/min/1.73 m2, 0.5% were reclassified to lower eGFRCKD-EPI and these individuals had a higher risk of all-cause (adjusted HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69) and CVD (adjusted HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01-1.99) mortality compared with those not reclassified. Risk prediction improved with eGFRCKD-EPI; NRI was 0.21 for all-cause mortality (p < 0.001) and 0.22 for CVD mortality (p < 0.001). Conclusions eGFRCKD-EPI categories improve mortality risk stratification of individuals in the US population. If eGFRCKD-EPI replaces eGFRMDRD in the US, it will likely improve risk stratification. PMID:22702805

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-01-01

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks. PMID:29543706

Payment and Provider Profiling of Episodes of Illness of Clinical Illnesses Involving Rehabilitation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldfield, Norbert; Averill, Richard; Eisenhandler, Jon; Hughes, John S.; Muldoon, John; Steinbeck, Barbara; Bagadia, Farah

2001-01-01

Summarizes the development of a new risk adjustment methodology, the Clinical Risk Grouping System, a prospective capitation risk adjuster, that should be useful for payment and monitoring of episodes of clinical conditions that involve rehabilitation. (SLD)

Children's Adjustment Following Divorce: Risk and Resilience Perspectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Joan B.; Emery, Robert E.

2003-01-01

Reviews the empirical literature on the longer-term adjustment of children of divorce from the perspective of (a) the stressors and elevated risks that divorce presents for children and (b) protective factors associated with better adjustment. The resiliency demonstrated by the majority of children is discussed, as are controversies regarding the…

Association between adolescent marriage and marital violence among young adult women in India

PubMed Central

Raj, Anita; Saggurti, Niranjan; Lawrence, Danielle; Balaiah, Donta; Silverman, Jay G.

2010-01-01

Objective To assess whether a history of adolescent marriage (<18 years) places women in young adulthood in India at increased risk of physical or sexual marital violence. Methods Cross-sectional analysis was performed on data from a nationally representative household study of 124 385 Indian women aged 15–49 years collected in 2005–2006. The analyses were restricted to married women aged 20–24 years who participated in the marital violence (MV) survey module (n=10 514). Simple regression models and models adjusted for participant demographics were constructed to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between adolescent marriage and MV. Results Over half (58%) of the participants were married before 18 years of age; 35% of the women had experienced physical or sexual violence in their marriage; and 27% reported such abuse in the last year. Adjusted regression analyses revealed that women married as minors were significantly more likely than those married as adults to report ever experiencing MV (adjusted OR 1.77; 95% CI, 1.61–1.95) and in the last 12 months (adjusted OR 1.51; 95% CI, 1.36–1.67). Conclusions Women who were married as adolescents remain at increased risk of MV into young adulthood. PMID:20347089

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Chronic Otitis Media: The Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010–2012

PubMed Central

Park, Mina; Lee, Ji Sung; Lee, Jun Ho; Oh, Seung Ha; Park, Moo Kyun

2015-01-01

Background The performance of nationwide studies of chronic otitis media (COM) in adults has been insufficient in Korea. We evaluated the prevalence and risk factors of COM in Korea. Methods This study was conducted using data from the fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 23,621). After excluding the subjects under 20 year old and suffered from cancers, 16,063 patients were evaluated for COM. Participants underwent a medical interview, physical examination, endoscopic examination, and blood and urine test. COM was diagnosed by trained residents in the Department of Otorhinolaryngology using an ear, nose, and throat questionnaire and otoendoscopy findings. Data on the presence and absence of COM were collected. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify its risk factors. Results Of the 16,063 participants aged above 20 year old, the weighted prevalence of COM was 3.8%. In the multivariate analyses, the following factors showed high odds ratios (ORs) for COM: pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted OR, 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-3.01), chronic rhinosinusitis (adjusted OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.17-2.98), mild hearing impairment (adjusted OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.34-2.85), moderate hearing impairment (adjusted OR, 4.00; 95% CI, 2.21-7.22), tinnitus (adjusted OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.34-2.49), increased hearing thresholds in pure tone audiometry in the right ear (adjusted OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), and left ear (adjusted OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04). The following factors showed low odds ratios for COM: hepatitis B (adjusted OR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.08-0.94) and rhinitis (adjusted OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.42-0.88). In addition, high levels of vitamin D, lead, and cadmium, EQ-5D index; and low red blood cell counts were associated with development of COM (Student’s t-test, P < 0.01). Conclusions Our population-based study showed that COM is not rare in Korea, and its development may be associated with various host and environmental factors. Further research on its relationships and the pathogenesis are needed. PMID:25978376

Preventing Child Abuse: A Meta-Analysis of Parent Training Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundahl, Brad W.; Nimer, Janelle; Parsons, Bruce

2006-01-01

Objective: A meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the ability of parent training programs to reduce parents' risk of abusing a child. Method: A total of 23 studies were submitted to a meta-analysis. Outcomes of interest included parents' attitudes toward abuse, emotional adjustment, child-rearing skills, and actual abuse. Conclusions:…

Mapping High Dimensional Sparse Customer Requirements into Product Configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Yao; Yang, Yu; Zhang, Hongshan

2017-10-01

Mapping customer requirements into product configurations is a crucial step for product design, while, customers express their needs ambiguously and locally due to the lack of domain knowledge. Thus the data mining process of customer requirements might result in fragmental information with high dimensional sparsity, leading the mapping procedure risk uncertainty and complexity. The Expert Judgment is widely applied against that background since there is no formal requirements for systematic or structural data. However, there are concerns on the repeatability and bias for Expert Judgment. In this study, an integrated method by adjusted Local Linear Embedding (LLE) and Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier is proposed to map high dimensional sparse customer requirements to product configurations. The integrated method adjusts classical LLE to preprocess high dimensional sparse dataset to satisfy the prerequisite of NB for classifying different customer requirements to corresponding product configurations. Compared with Expert Judgment, the adjusted LLE with NB performs much better in a real-world Tablet PC design case both in accuracy and robustness.

Odds per adjusted standard deviation: comparing strengths of associations for risk factors measured on different scales and across diseases and populations.

PubMed

Hopper, John L

2015-11-15

How can the "strengths" of risk factors, in the sense of how well they discriminate cases from controls, be compared when they are measured on different scales such as continuous, binary, and integer? Given that risk estimates take into account other fitted and design-related factors-and that is how risk gradients are interpreted-so should the presentation of risk gradients. Therefore, for each risk factor X0, I propose using appropriate regression techniques to derive from appropriate population data the best fitting relationship between the mean of X0 and all the other covariates fitted in the model or adjusted for by design (X1, X2, … , Xn). The odds per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) presents the risk association for X0 in terms of the change in risk per s = standard deviation of X0 adjusted for X1, X2, … , Xn, rather than the unadjusted standard deviation of X0 itself. If the increased risk is relative risk (RR)-fold over A adjusted standard deviations, then OPERA = exp[ln(RR)/A] = RR(s). This unifying approach is illustrated by considering breast cancer and published risk estimates. OPERA estimates are by definition independent and can be used to compare the predictive strengths of risk factors across diseases and populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Primary treatments for clinically localised prostate cancer: a comprehensive lifetime cost-utility analysis.

PubMed

Cooperberg, Matthew R; Ramakrishna, Naren R; Duff, Steven B; Hughes, Kathleen E; Sadownik, Sara; Smith, Joseph A; Tewari, Ashutosh K

2013-03-01

WHAT'S KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT? AND WHAT DOES THE STUDY ADD?: Multiple treatment alternatives exist for localised prostate cancer, with few high-quality studies directly comparing their comparative effectiveness and costs. The present study is the most comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis to date for localised prostate cancer, conducted with a lifetime horizon and accounting for survival, health-related quality-of-life, and cost impact of secondary treatments and other downstream events, as well as primary treatment choices. The analysis found minor differences, generally slightly favouring surgical methods, in quality-adjusted life years across treatment options. However, radiation therapy (RT) was consistently more expensive than surgery, and some alternatives, e.g. intensity-modulated RT for low-risk disease, were dominated - that is, both more expensive and less effective than competing alternatives. To characterise the costs and outcomes associated with radical prostatectomy (open, laparoscopic, or robot-assisted) and radiation therapy (RT: dose-escalated three-dimensional conformal RT, intensity-modulated RT, brachytherapy, or combination), using a comprehensive, lifetime decision analytical model. A Markov model was constructed to follow hypothetical men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk prostate cancer over their lifetimes after primary treatment; probabilities of outcomes were based on an exhaustive literature search yielding 232 unique publications. In each Markov cycle, patients could have remission, recurrence, salvage treatment, metastasis, death from prostate cancer, and death from other causes. Utilities for each health state were determined, and disutilities were applied for complications and toxicities of treatment. Costs were determined from the USA payer perspective, with incorporation of patient costs in a sensitivity analysis. Differences across treatments in quality-adjusted life years across methods were modest, ranging from 10.3 to 11.3 for low-risk patients, 9.6-10.5 for intermediate-risk patients and 7.8-9.3 for high-risk patients. There were no statistically significant differences among surgical methods, which tended to be more effective than RT methods, with the exception of combined external beam + brachytherapy for high-risk disease. RT methods were consistently more expensive than surgical methods; costs ranged from $19 901 (robot-assisted prostatectomy for low-risk disease) to $50 276 (combined RT for high-risk disease). These findings were robust to an extensive set of sensitivity analyses. Our analysis found small differences in outcomes and substantial differences in payer and patient costs across treatment alternatives. These findings may inform future policy discussions about strategies to improve efficiency of treatment selection for localised prostate cancer. © 2012 BJU International.

Temporal trends in the use of invasive cardiac procedures for non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes according to initial risk stratification

PubMed Central

Jedrzkiewicz, Sean; Goodman, Shaun G; Yan, Raymond T; Welsh, Robert C; Kornder, Jan; DeYoung, J Paul; Wong, Graham C; Rose, Barry; Grondin, François R; Gallo, Richard; Huang, Wei; Gore, Joel M; Yan, Andrew T

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines support an early invasive strategy in the management of high-risk non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). Although studies in the 1990s suggested that high-risk patients received less aggressive treatment, there are limited data on the contemporary management patterns of NSTE-ACS in Canada. OBJECTIVE: To examine the in-hospital use of coronary angiography and revascularization in relation to risk among less selected patients with NSTE-ACS. METHODS: Data from the prospective, multicentre Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (main GRACE and expanded GRACE2) were used. Between June 1999 and September 2007, 7131 patients from across Canada with a final diagnosis of NSTE-ACS were included the study. The study population was stratified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, based on their calculated GRACE risk score (a validated predictor of in-hospital mortality) and according to time of enrollment. RESULTS: While rates of in-hospital death and reinfarction were significantly (P<0.001) greater in higher-risk patients, the in-hospital use of cardiac catheterization in low- (64.7%), intermediate- (60.3%) and high-risk (42.3%) patients showed an inverse relationship (P<0.001). This trend persisted despite the increase in the overall rates of cardiac catheterization over time (47.9% in 1999 to 2003 versus 51.6% in 2004 to 2005 versus 63.8% in 2006 to 2007; P<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, intermediate-risk (adjusted OR 0.80 [95% CI 0.70 to 0.92], P=0.002) and high-risk (adjusted OR 0.38 [95% CI 0.29 to 0.48], P<0.001) patients remained less likely to undergo in-hospital cardiac catheterization. CONCLUSION: Despite the temporal increase in the use of invasive cardiac procedures, they remain paradoxically targeted toward low-risk patients with NSTE-ACS in contemporary practice. This treatment-risk paradox needs to be further addressed to maximize the benefits of invasive therapies in Canada. PMID:19898699

HIV prevalence, risk behaviors, health care use, and mental health status of transgender persons: implications for public health intervention.

PubMed Central

Clements-Nolle, K; Marx, R; Guzman, R; Katz, M

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study described HIV prevalence, risk behaviors, health care use, and mental health status of male-to-female and female-to-male transgender persons and determined factors associated with HIV. METHODS: We recruited transgender persons through targeted sampling, respondent-driven sampling, and agency referrals; 392 male-to-female and 123 female-to-male transgender persons were interviewed and tested for HIV. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among male-to-female transgender persons was 35%. African American race (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 5.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.82, 11.96), a history of injection drug use (OR = 2.69; 95% CI = 1.56, 4.62), multiple sex partners (adjusted OR = 2.64; 95% CI = 1.50, 4.62), and low education (adjusted OR = 2.08; 95% CI = 1.17, 3.68) were independently associated with HIV. Among female-to-male transgender persons, HIV prevalence (2%) and risk behaviors were much lower. Most male-to-female (78%) and female-to-male (83%) transgender persons had seen a medical provider in the past 6 months. Sixty-two percent of the male-to-female and 55% of the female-to-male transgender persons were depressed; 32% of each population had attempted suicide. CONCLUSIONS: High HIV prevalence suggests an urgent need for risk reduction interventions for male-to-female transgender persons. Recent contact with medical providers was observed, suggesting that medical providers could provide an important link to needed prevention, health, and social services. PMID:11392934

HIV-Related Sexual Risk among African American Men Preceding Incarceration: Associations with Support from Significant Others, Family, and Friends.

PubMed

Coatsworth, Ashley M; Scheidell, Joy D; Wohl, David A; Whitehead, Nicole E; Golin, Carol E; Judon-Monk, Selena; Khan, Maria R

2017-02-01

We evaluated the association between social support received from significant others, family, and friends and HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among African American men involved in the criminal justice system. Project DISRUPT is a cohort study among African American men released from prison in North Carolina (N = 189). During the baseline (in-prison) survey, we assessed the amount of support men perceived they had received from significant others, family, and friends. We measured associations between low support from each source (

Metabolic factors and genetic risk mediate familial type 2 diabetes risk in the Framingham Heart Study

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Sridharan; Porneala, Bianca; McKeown, Nicola; Fox, Caroline S.; Dupuis, Josée; Meigs, James B.

2015-01-01

Aims/hypothesis Type 2 diabetes mellitus in parents is a strong determinant of diabetes risk in their offspring. We hypothesise that offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes is mediated by metabolic risk factors. Methods We studied initially non-diabetic participants of the Framingham Offspring Study. Metabolic risk was estimated using beta cell corrected insulin response (CIR), HOMA-IR or a count of metabolic syndrome components (metabolic syndrome score [MSS]). Dietary risk and physical activity were estimated using questionnaire responses. Genetic risk score (GRS) was estimated as the count of 62 type 2 diabetes risk alleles. The outcome of incident diabetes in offspring was examined across levels of parental diabetes exposure, accounting for sibling correlation and adjusting for age, sex and putative mediators. The proportion mediated was estimated by comparing regression coefficients for parental diabetes with (βadj) and without (βunadj) adjustments for CIR, HOMA-IR, MSS and GRS (percentage mediated = 1 – βadj / βunadj). Results Metabolic factors mediated 11% of offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes, corresponding to a reduction in OR per diabetic parent from 2.13 to 1.96. GRS mediated 9% of risk, corresponding to a reduction in OR per diabetic parent from 2.13 to 1.99. Conclusions/interpretation Metabolic risk factors partially mediated offspring type 2 diabetes risk conferred by parental diabetes to a similar magnitude as genetic risk. However, a substantial proportion of offspring diabetes risk associated with parental diabetes remains unexplained by metabolic factors, genetic risk, diet and physical activity, suggesting that important familial influences on diabetes risk remain undiscovered. PMID:25619168

Racial and ethnic differences in the risk of postpartum venous thromboembolism: a population-based, case-control study.

PubMed

Blondon, M; Harrington, L B; Righini, M; Boehlen, F; Bounameaux, H; Smith, N L

2014-12-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major contributor of maternal morbidity and mortality. Whether maternal race/ethnicity is associated with the risk of postpartum VTE remains unclear. We conducted a population-based, case-control study in Washington State, from 1987 through 2011. Cases comprised all women with selected International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification codes for hospitalized VTE within 3 months post-delivery. Controls were randomly selected postpartum women who did not experience a VTE. Characteristics of women and their deliveries were abstracted from birth certificates. Using logistic regression models, we compared the risk of postpartum VTE in black, Asian, and Hispanic women with that in non-Hispanic white women, after adjustment for maternal characteristics (age, body mass index, parity, education), pregnancy complications, and delivery methods. Our study comprised 688 cases and 10 246 controls. Among controls, the mean age and body mass index were 27.5 years and 26.3 kg m(-2) , respectively. Compared with white women, black and Asian women had a greater and lower risk of postpartum VTE (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-2.04 and OR 0.67, 95%CI 0.48-0.94, respectively). A lower risk was present in Hispanic women (adjusted OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.61-1.06) but was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, we observed an increased risk for black compared with white women among women who delivered via cesarean section (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.34-3.07) but not among vaginal deliveries (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.61-1.74). Maternal race/ethnicity is associated with the risk of postpartum VTE, independently of other risk factors, and should be considered when assessing the use of thromboprophylaxis after delivery. © 2014 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Reproductive history and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in postmenopausal women: Findings from the Women’s Health Initiative

PubMed Central

LeBlanc, Erin S; Kapphahn, Kristopher; Hedlin, Haley; Desai, Manisha; Parikh, Nisha I.; Liu, Simin; Parker, Donna R.; Anderson, Matthew; Aroda, Vanita; Sullivan, Shannon; Woods, Nancy F.; Waring, Molly E.; Lewis, Cora E.; Stefanick, Marcia

2016-01-01

Objective To understand the association between women’s reproductive history and their risk of developing type 2 diabetes. We hypothesized that characteristics signifying lower cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure would be associated with increased risk. Methods Prospective cohort analysis of 124,379 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 from the Women’s Health Initiative. We determined age of menarche and final menstrual period, and history of irregular menses from questionnaires at baseline, and calculated reproductive length from age of menarche and final menstrual period. Presence of new onset type 2 diabetes was from self-report. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed associations between reproductive variables and incidence of type 2 diabetes. Results In age-adjusted models, women with the shortest (<30 years) reproductive periods had a 37% (95% CI = 30–45%) greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes than women with medium-length reproductive periods (36 to 40 years). Women with the longest (45+ years) reproductive periods had a 23% (95% CI = 12–37%) higher risk than women with medium-length periods. These associations were attenuated after full adjustment (HR of 1.07 [1.01, 1.14] for shortest and HR of 1.09 [0.99, 1.22] for longest, compared to medium duration). Those with a final menstrual period before age 45 and after age 55 had an increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99, 1.09 and HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01, 1.14, respectively) compared to those with age of final menstrual period between 46 and 55. Timing of menarche and cycle regularity were not associated with risk after full adjustment. Conclusions Reproductive history may be associated with type 2 diabetes risk. Women with shorter and longer reproductive periods may benefit from lifestyle counseling to prevent type 2 diabetes. PMID:27465714

Predictors of Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality in Elderly Men With Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer Treated With Brachytherapy With or Without External Beam Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nanda, Akash, E-mail: ananda@partners.or; Chen, M.-H.; Moran, Brian J.

2010-05-01

Purpose: To identify clinical factors associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), adjusting for comorbidity, in elderly men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer treated with brachytherapy alone or in conjunction with external beam radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: The study cohort comprised 1,978 men of median age 71 (interquartile range, 66-75) years with intermediate-risk disease (Gleason score 7, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) 20 ng/mL or less, tumor category T2c or less). Fine and Gray's multivariable competing risks regression was used to assess whether prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD), age, treatment, year of brachytherapy, PSA level, or tumor category was associated with the risk ofmore » PCSM. Results: After a median follow-up of 3.2 (interquartile range, 1.7-5.4) years, the presence of CVD was significantly associated with a decreased risk of PCSM (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.20; 95% CI 0.04-0.99; p = 0.05), whereas an increasing PSA level was significantly associated with an increased risk of PCSM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.14; 95% CI 1.02-1.27; p = 0.02). In the absence of CVD, cumulative incidence estimates of PCSM were higher (p = 0.03) in men with PSA levels above as compared with the median PSA level (7.3 ng/mL) or less; however, in the setting of CVD there was no difference (p = 0.27) in these estimates stratified by the median PSA level (6.9 ng/mL). Conclusions: In elderly men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, CVD status is a negative predictor of PCSM and affects the prognostic capacity of pretreatment PSA level. These observations support the potential utility of prerandomization stratification by comorbidity to more accurately assess prognostic factors and treatment effects within this population.« less

Alcohol Consumption, Alcohol Outlets, and the Risk of Being Assaulted With a Gun

PubMed Central

Branas, Charles C.; Elliott, Michael R.; Richmond, Therese S.; Culhane, Dennis P.; Wiebe, Douglas J.

2010-01-01

Background We conducted a population-based case–control study to better delineate the relationship between individual alcohol consumption, alcohol outlets in the surrounding environment, and being assaulted with a gun. Methods An incidence density sampled case–control study was conducted in the entire city of Philadelphia from 2003 to 2006. We enrolled 677 cases that had been shot in an assault and 684 population-based controls. The relationships between 2 independent variables of interest, alcohol consumption and alcohol outlet availability, and the outcome of being assaulted with a gun were analyzed. Conditional logistic regression was used to adjust for numerous confounding variables. Results After adjustment, heavy drinkers were 2.67 times as likely to be shot in an assault when compared with nondrinkers (p < 0.10) while light drinkers were not at significantly greater risk of being shot in an assault when compared with nondrinkers. Regression-adjusted analyses also demonstrated that being in an area of high off-premise alcohol outlet availability significantly increased the risk of being shot in an assault by 2.00 times (p < 0.05). Being in an area of high on-premise alcohol outlet availability did not significantly change this risk. Heavy drinkers in areas of high off-premise alcohol outlet availability were 9.34 times (p < 0.05) as likely to be shot in an assault. Conclusions This study finds that the gun assault risk to individuals who are near off-premise alcohol outlets is about the same as or statistically greater than the risk they incur from heavy drinking. The combination of heavy drinking and being near off-premise outlets resulted in greater risk than either factor alone. By comparison, light drinking and being near on-premise alcohol outlets were not associated with increased risks for gun assault. Cities should consider addressing alcohol-related factors, especially off-premise outlets, as highly modifiable and politically feasible approaches to reducing gun violence. PMID:19320627

Suicide in Scottish military veterans: a 30-year retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Bergman, B P; Mackay, D F; Smith, D J; Pell, J P

2017-07-01

Although reassuring data on suicide risk in UK veterans of the 1982 Falklands conflict and 1991 Gulf conflict have been published, there have been few studies on long-term overall suicide risk in UK veterans. To examine the risk of suicide in a broad population-based cohort of veterans in Scotland, irrespect ive of length of service or exposure to conflict, in comparison with people having no record of military service. A retrospective 30-year cohort study of 56205 veterans born 1945-85 and 172741 matched non-veterans, using Cox proportional hazard models to compare the risk of suicide and fatal self-harm overall, by sex, birth cohort, length of service and year of recruitment. There were 267 (0.48%) suicides in the veterans compared with 918 (0.53%) in non-veterans. The difference was not statistically significant overall [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86-1.13]. The incidence was lower in younger veterans and higher in veterans aged over 40. Early service leavers were at non-significantly increased risk (adjusted HR 1.13; 95% CI 0.91-1.40) but only in the older age groups. Women veterans had a significantly higher risk of suicide than non-veteran women (adjusted HR 2.44; 95% CI 1.32-4.51, P < 0.01) and comparable risk to veteran men. Methods of suicide did not differ significantly between veterans and non-veterans, for either sex. The Scottish Veterans Health Study adds to the emerging body of evidence that there is no overall difference in long-term risk of suicide between veterans and non-veterans in the UK. However, female veterans merit further study. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Conditional risk assessment of adolescents’ electronic cigarette perceptions

PubMed Central

Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Gansky, Stuart A.; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Couch, Elizabeth T.; Essex, Gwen; Walsh, Margaret M.

2015-01-01

Objectives Adapt an established instrument for measuring adolescents’ cigarette-related perceptions for new application with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). Methods In this exploratory study, 104 male high school students (40% tobacco ever-users) estimated the probability of potential e-cigarette risks (eg, lung cancer) or benefits (eg, look cool). We calculated associations between risk/benefit composite scores, ever-use, and use intention for e-cigarettes and analogously for combustible cigarettes. Results E-cigarette ever-use was associated with lower perceived risks, with adjusted differences versus never-users greater for e-cigarettes than cigarettes. Risk composite score was inversely associated, and benefit score positively associated, with e-cigarette ever-use and use intention. Conclusion Conditional risk assessment characterized adolescents’ perceived e-cigarette risk/benefit profile, with potential utility for risk-perception measurement in larger future studies. PMID:25741686

The effectiveness of a training method using self-modeling webcam photos for reducing musculoskeletal risk among office workers using computers.

PubMed

Taieb-Maimon, Meirav; Cwikel, Julie; Shapira, Bracha; Orenstein, Ido

2012-03-01

An intervention study was conducted to examine the effectiveness of an innovative self-modeling photo-training method for reducing musculoskeletal risk among office workers using computers. Sixty workers were randomly assigned to either: 1) a control group; 2) an office training group that received personal, ergonomic training and workstation adjustments or 3) a photo-training group that received both office training and an automatic frequent-feedback system that displayed on the computer screen a photo of the worker's current sitting posture together with the correct posture photo taken earlier during office training. Musculoskeletal risk was evaluated using the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) method before, during and after the six weeks intervention. Both training methods provided effective short-term posture improvement; however, sustained improvement was only attained with the photo-training method. Both interventions had a greater effect on older workers and on workers suffering more musculoskeletal pain. The photo-training method had a greater positive effect on women than on men. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Survival As a Quality Metric of Cancer Care: Use of the National Cancer Data Base to Assess Hospital Performance.

PubMed

Shulman, Lawrence N; Palis, Bryan E; McCabe, Ryan; Mallin, Kathy; Loomis, Ashley; Winchester, David; McKellar, Daniel

2018-01-01

Survival is considered an important indicator of the quality of cancer care, but the validity of different methodologies to measure comparative survival rates is less well understood. We explored whether the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) could serve as a source of unadjusted and risk-adjusted cancer survival data and whether these data could be used as quality indicators for individual hospitals or in the aggregate by hospital type. The NCDB, an aggregate of > 1,500 hospital cancer registries, was queried to analyze unadjusted and risk-adjusted hazards of death for patients with stage III breast cancer (n = 116,787) and stage IIIB or IV non-small-cell lung cancer (n = 252,392). Data were analyzed at the individual hospital level and by hospital type. At the hospital level, after risk adjustment, few hospitals had comparative risk-adjusted survival rates that were statistically better or worse. By hospital type, National Cancer Institute-designated comprehensive cancer centers had risk-adjusted survival ratios that were statistically significantly better than those of academic cancer centers and community hospitals. Using the NCDB as the data source, survival rates for patients with stage III breast cancer and stage IIIB or IV non-small-cell lung cancer were statistically better at National Cancer Institute-designated comprehensive cancer centers when compared with other hospital types. Compared with academic hospitals, risk-adjusted survival was lower in community hospitals. At the individual hospital level, after risk adjustment, few hospitals were shown to have statistically better or worse survival, suggesting that, using NCDB data, survival may not be a good metric to determine relative quality of cancer care at this level.

Risk-adjusted morbidity in teaching hospitals correlates with reported levels of communication and collaboration on surgical teams but not with scale measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, or working conditions.

PubMed

Davenport, Daniel L; Henderson, William G; Mosca, Cecilia L; Khuri, Shukri F; Mentzer, Robert M

2007-12-01

Since the Institute of Medicine patient safety reports, a number of survey-based measures of organizational climate safety factors (OCSFs) have been developed. The goal of this study was to measure the impact of OCSFs on risk-adjusted surgical morbidity and mortality. Surveys were administered to staff on general/vascular surgery services during a year. Surveys included multiitem scales measuring OCSFs. Additionally, perceived levels of communication and collaboration with coworkers were assessed. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to assess risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality. Correlations between outcomes and OCSFs were calculated and between outcomes and communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors, nurses, and other providers. Fifty-two sites participated in the survey: 44 Veterans Affairs and 8 academic medical centers. A total of 6,083 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 52%. The OCSF measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, working conditions, recognition of stress effects, job satisfaction, and burnout demonstrated internal validity but did not correlate with risk-adjusted outcomes. Reported levels of communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors correlated with risk-adjusted morbidity. Survey-based teamwork, safety climate, and working conditions scales are not confirmed to measure organizational factors that influence risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. Reported communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors on surgical services influenced patient morbidity. This suggests the importance of doctors' coordination and decision-making roles on surgical teams in providing high-quality and safe care. We propose risk-adjusted morbidity as an effective measure of surgical patient safety.

Validation of Association of Genetic Variants at 10q with PSA Levels in Men at High Risk for Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Chang, Bao-Li; Hughes, Lucinda; Chen, David Y. T.; Gross, Laura; Ruth, Karen; Giri, Veda N.

2013-01-01

Objectives Men with a family history of prostate cancer and African American men are at increased risk for prostate cancer and stand to benefit from individualized interpretation of PSA to guide screening strategies. The purpose of this study was to validate six previously identified markers among high-risk men enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program - a prostate cancer screening study. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP includes men ages 35–69 years with a family history of prostate cancer, any African American male regardless of family history, and men with known BRCA gene mutations. GWAS markers assessed included rs2736098 (5p15.33), rs10993994 (10q11), rs10788160 (10q26), rs11067228 (12q24), rs4430796 (17q12), and rs17632542 (19q13.33). Genotyping methods included either Taqman® SNP Genotyping Assay (Applied Biosystems) or pyrosequencing. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the association between individual markers and log-transformed baseline PSA levels, while adjusting for potential confounders. Results 707 participants (37% Caucasian, 63% African American) with clinical and genotype data were included in the analysis. Rs10788160 (10q26) strongly associated with PSA levels among high-risk Caucasian participants (p<0.01), with a 33.2% increase in PSA level with each A-allele carried. Furthermore, rs10993994 (10q11) demonstrated an association to PSA level (p=0.03) in high-risk Caucasian men, with a 15% increase in PSA with each T-allele carried. A PSA adjustment model based on allele carrier status at rs10788160 and rs10993994 is proposed specific to high-risk Caucasian men. Conclusion Genetic variation at 10q may be particularly important in personalizing interpretation of PSA for high-risk Caucasian men. Such information may have clinical relevance in shared decision-making and individualized prostate cancer screening strategies for high-risk Caucasian men. Further study is warranted. PMID:23937305

Association of Magnesium Intake with High Blood Pressure in Korean Adults: Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2009

PubMed Central

Choi, Mi-Kyeong; Bae, Yun Jung

2015-01-01

Background Magnesium is known to lower the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, studies on its relationship with hypertension, a single and common cause of various chronic diseases, are limited and their findings are not consistent. The purpose of the present study is to identify the relationship between magnesium intake and high blood pressure (HBP) risk in Koreans. Methods This research is a cross-sectional study based on the 2007~2009 Korean National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey data. This study investigated 11,685 adults aged over 20 to examine their general characteristics, anthropometry and blood pressure. Daily magnesium intake was analyzed using the 24-hour dietary recall method. To calculate the odds ratio (OR) of HBP risk (130/85 mmHg or over) according to the quartile of magnesium intake (mg/1000kcal) together with its 95% confidence interval (CI), multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed. Results No significant association between dietary magnesium intake and the risk of HBP was found. In obese women, particularly, after adjusting relevant factors, the adjusted odds ratio of HBP prevalence in the highest magnesium intake quartile was 0.40 compared with the lowest magnesium intake quartile (95% CI = 0.25~0.63, P for trend = 0.0014). Women, especially obese women, were found to have a negative relationship of magnesium intake with HBP. Conclusions The present results indicate that sufficient magnesium intake could be useful in decreasing the high blood pressure risk of obese women. PMID:26075385

Methods for addressing "innocent bystanders" when evaluating safety of concomitant vaccines.

PubMed

Wang, Shirley V; Abdurrob, Abdurrahman; Spoendlin, Julia; Lewis, Edwin; Newcomer, Sophia R; Fireman, Bruce; Daley, Matthew F; Glanz, Jason M; Duffy, Jonathan; Weintraub, Eric S; Kulldorff, Martin

2018-04-01

The need to develop methods for studying the safety of childhood immunization schedules has been recognized by the Institute of Medicine and Department of Health and Human Services. The recommended childhood immunization schedule includes multiple vaccines in a visit. A key concern is safety of concomitant (same day) versus separate day vaccination. This paper addresses a methodological challenge for observational studies using a self-controlled design to investigate the safety of concomitant vaccination. We propose a process for distinguishing which of several concomitantly administered vaccines is responsible for increased risk of an adverse event while adjusting for confounding due to relationships between effect modifying risk factors and concomitant vaccine combinations. We illustrate the approach by re-examining the known increase in risk of seizure 7 to 10 days after measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination and evaluating potential independent or modifying effects of other vaccines. Initial analyses suggested that DTaP had both an independent and potentiating effect on seizure. After accounting for the relationship between age at vaccination and vaccine combination, there was little evidence for increased risk of seizure with same day administration of DTaP and MMR; incidence rate ratio, 95% confidence interval 1.2 (0.9-1.6), P value = θ.226. We have shown that when using a self-controlled design to investigate safety of concomitant vaccination, it can be critically important to adjust for time-invariant effect modifying risk factors, such as age at time of vaccination, which are structurally related to vaccination patterns due to recommended immunization schedules. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of 3 Methods for Identifying Dietary Patterns Associated With Risk of Disease

PubMed Central

DiBello, Julia R.; Kraft, Peter; McGarvey, Stephen T.; Goldberg, Robert; Campos, Hannia

2008-01-01

Reduced rank regression and partial least-squares regression (PLS) are proposed alternatives to principal component analysis (PCA). Using all 3 methods, the authors derived dietary patterns in Costa Rican data collected on 3,574 cases and controls in 1994–2004 and related the resulting patterns to risk of first incident myocardial infarction. Four dietary patterns associated with myocardial infarction were identified. Factor 1, characterized by high intakes of lean chicken, vegetables, fruit, and polyunsaturated oil, was generated by all 3 dietary pattern methods and was associated with a significantly decreased adjusted risk of myocardial infarction (28%–46%, depending on the method used). PCA and PLS also each yielded a pattern associated with a significantly decreased risk of myocardial infarction (31% and 23%, respectively); this pattern was characterized by moderate intake of alcohol and polyunsaturated oil and low intake of high-fat dairy products. The fourth factor derived from PCA was significantly associated with a 38% increased risk of myocardial infarction and was characterized by high intakes of coffee and palm oil. Contrary to previous studies, the authors found PCA and PLS to produce more patterns associated with cardiovascular disease than reduced rank regression. The most effective method for deriving dietary patterns related to disease may vary depending on the study goals. PMID:18945692

Willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life year: an evaluation of attitudes towards risk and preferences

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This paper examines the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) expressed by people who attended the healthcare system as well as the association of attitude towards risk and other personal characteristics with their response. Methods Health-state preferences, measured by EuroQol (EQ-5D-3L), were combined with WTP for recovering a perfect health state. WTP was assessed using close-ended, iterative bidding, contingent valuation method. Data on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as usage of health services by the subjects were collected. The attitude towards risk was evaluated by collecting risky behaviors data, by the subject’s self-evaluation, and through lottery games. Results Six hundred and sixty two subjects participated and 449 stated a utility inferior to 1. WTP/QALY ratios varied significantly when payments with personal money (mean €10,119; median €673) or through taxes (mean €28,187; median €915) were suggested. Family income, area income, higher education level, greater use of healthcare services, and the number of co-inhabitants were associated with greater WTP/QALY ratios. Age and female gender were associated with lower WTP/QALY ratios. Risk inclination was independently associated with a greater WTP/QALY when “out of pocket” payments were suggested. Clear discrepancies were demonstrated between linearity and neutrality towards risk assumptions and experimental results. Conclusions WTP/QALY ratios vary noticeably based on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the subject, but also on their attitude towards risk. Knowing the expression of preferences by patients from this outcome measurement can be of interest for health service planning. PMID:24989615

Observational intensity bias associated with illness adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Staiger, Douglas O; Sharp, Sandra M; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Bevan, Gwyn; McPherson, Klim; Welch, H Gilbert

2013-01-01

Objective To determine the bias associated with frequency of visits by physicians in adjusting for illness, using diagnoses recorded in administrative databases. Setting Claims data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of illness adjustment on regional mortality and spending rates using standard and visit corrected illness methods for adjustment. The standard method adjusts using comorbidity measures based on diagnoses listed in administrative databases; the modified method corrects these measures for the frequency of visits by physicians. Three conventions for measuring comorbidity are used: the Charlson comorbidity index, Iezzoni chronic conditions, and hierarchical condition categories risk scores. Results The visit corrected Charlson comorbidity index explained more of the variation in age, sex, and race mortality across the 306 hospital referral regions than did the standard index (R2=0.21 v 0.11, P<0.001) and, compared with sex and race adjusted mortality, reduced regional variation, whereas adjustment using the standard Charlson comorbidity index increased it. Although visit corrected and age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates were similar in hospital referral regions with the highest and lowest fifths of visits, adjustment using the standard index resulted in a rate that was 18% lower in the highest fifth (46.4 v 56.3 deaths per 1000, P<0.001). Age, sex, and race adjusted spending as well as visit corrected spending was more than 30% greater in the highest fifth of visits than in the lowest fifth, but only 12% greater after adjustment using the standard index. Similar results were obtained using the Iezzoni and the hierarchical condition categories conventions for measuring comorbidity. Conclusion The rates of visits by physicians introduce substantial bias when regional mortality and spending rates are adjusted for illness using comorbidity measures based on the observed number of diagnoses recorded in Medicare’s administrative database. Adjusting without correction for regional variation in visit rates tends to make regions with high rates of visits seem to have lower mortality and lower costs, and vice versa. Visit corrected comorbidity measures better explain variation in age, sex, and race mortality than observed measures, and reduce observational intensity bias. PMID:23430282

Depression and incident diabetic foot ulcers: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Williams, Lisa H.; Rutter, Carolyn M.; Katon, Wayne J.; Reiber, Gayle E.; Ciechanowski, Paul; Heckbert, Susan R.; Lin, Elizabeth H.B.; Ludman, Evette J.; Oliver, Malia M.; Young, Bessie A.; Von Korff, Michael

2010-01-01

Objective To test whether depression is associated with an increased risk of incident diabetic foot ulcers. Methods The Pathways Epidemiologic Study is a population-based prospective cohort study of 4839 patients with diabetes in 2000–2007. The present analysis included 3474 adults with type 2 diabetes and no prior diabetic foot ulcers or amputations. Mean follow-up was 4.1 years. Major and minor depression assessed by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) were the exposures of interest. The outcome of interest was incident diabetic foot ulcers. We computed the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI for incident diabetic foot ulcers, comparing patients with major and minor depression to those without depression and adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, medical comorbidity, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), diabetes duration, insulin use, number of diabetes complications, body mass index, smoking status, and foot self-care. Sensitivity analyses also adjusted for peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease as defined by diagnosis codes. Results Compared to patients without depression, patients with major depression by PHQ-9 had a two-fold increase in the risk of incident diabetic foot ulcers (adjusted HR 2.00, 95% CI: 1.24, 3.25). There was no statistically significant association between minor depression by PHQ-9 and incident diabetic foot ulcers (adjusted HR 1.37, 95% CI: 0.77, 2.44). Conclusion Major depression by PHQ-9 is associated with a two-fold higher risk of incident diabetic foot ulcers. Future studies of this association should include better measures of peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease, which are possible confounders and/or mediators. PMID:20670730

Evaluating the effects of variation in clinical practice: a risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E) analysis of acute stroke services.

PubMed

Pham, Clarabelle; Caffrey, Orla; Ben-Tovim, David; Hakendorf, Paul; Crotty, Maria; Karnon, Jonathan

2012-08-21

Methods for the cost-effectiveness analysis of health technologies are now well established, but such methods may also have a useful role in the context of evaluating the effects of variation in applied clinical practice. This study illustrates a general methodology for the comparative analysis of applied clinical practice at alternative institutions--risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E) analysis--with an application that compares acute hospital services for stroke patients admitted to the main public hospitals in South Australia. Using linked, routinely collected data on all South Australian hospital separations from July 2001 to June 2008, an analysis of the RAC-E of services provided at four metropolitan hospitals was undertaken using a decision analytic framework. Observed (plus extrapolated) and expected lifetime costs and survival were compared across patient populations, from which the relative cost-effectiveness of services provided at the different hospitals was estimated. Unadjusted results showed that at one hospital patients incurred fewer costs and gained more life years than at the other hospitals (i.e. it was the dominant hospital). After risk adjustment, the cost minimizing hospital incurred the lowest costs, but with fewer life-years gained than one other hospital. The mean incremental cost per life-year gained of services provided at the most effective hospital was under $20,000, with an associated 65% probability of being cost-effective at a $50,000 per life year monetary threshold. RAC-E analyses can be used to identify important variation in the costs and outcomes associated with clinical practice at alternative institutions. Such data provides an impetus for further investigation to identify specific areas of variation, which may then inform the dissemination of best practice service delivery and organisation.

Mesothelioma and lung cancer mortality: a historical cohort study among asbestosis workers in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Chen, Minghui; Tse, Lap Ah; Au, Ronald K F; Yu, Ignatius T S; Wang, Xiao-rong; Lao, Xiang-qian; Au, Joseph Siu-kei

2012-05-01

To investigate the mortality pattern among a cohort of workers with asbestosis in Hong Kong, with special emphases on mesothelioma and lung cancer. All 124 male workers with confirmed asbestosis in Hong Kong during 1981-2008 were followed up to December 31, 2008 to ascertain the vital status and causes of death. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for each underlying cause of death was calculated by using person-year method. Axelson's indirect method was applied to adjust for the potential confounding effect of cigarette smoking. A total of 86 deaths were observed after 432.8 person-years of observations. The SMR for overall mortality (6.06, 95% CI: 4.90-7.51) increased significantly. The elevated risk of deaths from all cancers (7.53, 95% CI: 5.38-10.25) was mainly resulted from a significantly excess risk from lung cancer (SMR=7.91, 95% CI: 4.32-13.29, 14 deaths) and mesothelioma (SMR=6013.63, 95% CI: 3505.95-9621.81, 17 deaths). The SMR for lung cancer retained statistically significant after adjustment of smoking. An increased smoking adjusted SMR was also suggested for all heart diseases (2.32, 95% CI: 0.93-4.79, 7 deaths) and acute myocardial infarction (3.10, 95% CI: 0.84-7.94, 4 deaths), though the statistical significance was borderline. We found a positive association with net years of exposure to asbestos for mesothelioma and lung cancer. Our study provided further evidence on the carcinogenesis of asbestos/asbestosis with the risk of deaths from lung cancer and mesothelioma. This study also provided a preliminary support for a possible link between asbestosis and heart disease, but power is limited. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

p73 G4C14-to-A4T14 Polymorphism and Risk of Human Papillomavirus Associated Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oropharynx in Never Smokers and Never Drinkers

PubMed Central

Chen, Xingming; Sturgis, Erich M.; Etzel, Carol J.; Wei, Qingyi; Li, Guojun

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND p73 can be inactivated by oncoprotein E6 of human papillomavirus (HPV). It is possible that p73 variation could alter the interaction between the E6 protein and p73, and thus alter the risk for HPV associated carcinogenesis. The p73 G4C14-to-A4T14 polymorphism is thought to affect p73 function by altering gene expression, but whether this also alters the risk of HPV16 associated squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx (SCCOP) is unknown. METHODS This case-control study included 188 non-Hispanic white patients with newly diagnosed SCCOP and 349 healthy control subjects. Logistic regression analyses were used to calculate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for cases and controls stratified by p73 genotype, age, sex, smoking, drinking and HPV16 status. The effects of p73 genotypes on risk of HPV16 associated SCCOP were explored with further stratification by smoking and drinking status. RESULTS HPV16 seropositivity was associated with an increased risk of SCCOP (adjusted OR, 5.98; 95% CI, 3.89-9.20), especially among never smokers (adjusted OR, 13.8; 95% CI, 5.91-32.1), never drinkers (adjusted OR, 14.9; 95% CI, 5.24-42.4), and subjects with p73 variant genotypes (GC/AT + AT/AT) (adjusted OR, 7.96; 95% CI, 3.83-16.5). Moreover, the risk of HPV16 associated SCCOP for those with p73 variant genotypes was particularly high in never smokers and never drinkers. CONCLUSIONS p73 G4C14-to-A4T14 polymorphism may modulate the risk of HPV16 associated SCCOP and the p73 variant genotypes may be a marker of genetic susceptibility to HPV16 associated SCCOP, particularly in never smokers and never drinkers. Condensed abstract p73 G4C14-to-A4T14 polymorphism may modulate the risk of HPV16 associated squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx and the p73 variant genotypes may be a marker of genetic susceptibility to HPV16 associated squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx, particularly in never smokers and never drinkers. PMID:18988287

A Decade’s Experience With Quality Improvement in Cardiac Surgery Using the Veterans Affairs and Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Databases

PubMed Central

Grover, Frederick L.; Shroyer, A. Laurie W.; Hammermeister, Karl; Edwards, Fred H.; Ferguson, T. Bruce; Dziuban, Stanley W.; Cleveland, Joseph C.; Clark, Richard E.; McDonald, Gerald

2001-01-01

Objective To review the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) national databases over the past 10 years to evaluate their relative similarities and differences, to appraise their use as quality improvement tools, and to assess their potential to facilitate improvements in quality of cardiac surgical care. Summary Background Data The VA developed a mandatory risk-adjusted database in 1987 to monitor outcomes of cardiac surgery at all VA medical centers. In 1989 the STS developed a voluntary risk-adjusted database to help members assess quality and outcomes in their individual programs and to facilitate improvements in quality of care. Methods A short data form on every veteran operated on at each VA medical center is completed and transmitted electronically for analysis of unadjusted and risk-adjusted death and complications, as well as length of stay. Masked, confidential semiannual reports are then distributed to each program’s clinical team and the associated administrator. These reports are also reviewed by a national quality oversight committee. Thus, VA data are used both locally for quality improvement and at the national level with quality surveillance. The STS dataset (217 core fields and 255 extended fields) is transmitted for each patient semiannually to the Duke Clinical Research Institute (DCRI) for warehousing, analysis, and distribution. Site-specific reports are produced with regional and national aggregate comparisons for unadjusted and adjusted surgical deaths and complications, as well as length of stay for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valvular procedures, and valvular/CABG procedures. Both databases use the logistic regression modeling approach. Data for key processes of care are also captured in both databases. Research projects are frequently carried out using each database. Results More than 74,000 and 1.6 million cardiac surgical patients have been entered into the VA and STS databases, respectively. Risk factors that predict surgical death for CABG are very similar in the two databases, as are the odds ratios for most of the risk factors. One major difference is that the VA is 99% male, the STS 71% male. Both databases have shown a significant reduction in the risk-adjusted surgical death rate during the past decade despite the fact that patients have presented with an increased risk factor profile. The ratio of observed to expected deaths decreased from 1.05 to 0.9 for the VA and from 1.5 to 0.9 for the STS. Conclusion It appears that the routine feedback of risk-adjusted data on local performance provided by these programs heightens awareness and leads to self-examination and self-assessment, which in turn improves quality and outcomes. This general quality improvement template should be considered for application in other settings beyond cardiac surgery. PMID:11573040

Associations of coagulation factors IX and XI levels with incident coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke: the REGARDS study.

PubMed

Olson, N C; Cushman, M; Judd, S E; Kissela, B M; Safford, M M; Howard, G; Zakai, N A

2017-06-01

Essentials Coagulation factors (F) IX and XI have been implicated in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We studied associations of FIX and FXI with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Higher FIX antigen was associated with incident CHD risk in blacks but not whites. Higher levels of FIX antigen may be a CHD risk factor among blacks. Background Recent studies have suggested the importance of coagulation factor IX and FXI in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Objectives To determine whether basal levels of FIX or FXI antigen were associated with the risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) or ischemic stroke. Patients/Methods The REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study recruited 30 239 participants across the contiguous USA between 2003 and 2007. In a case-cohort study within REGARDS, FIX and FXI antigen were measured in participants with incident CHD (n = 609), in participants with incident ischemic stroke (n = 538), and in a cohort random sample (n = 1038). Hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD and ischemic stroke risk were estimated with Cox models per standard deviation higher FIX or FXI level, adjusted for CVD risk factors. Results In models adjusting for CHD risk factors, higher FIX levels were associated with incident CHD risk (HR 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.40) and the relationship of higher FXI levels was slightly weaker (HR 1.15; 95% CI 0.97-1.36). When stratified by race, the HR of FIX was higher in blacks (HR 1.39; 95% CI 1.10-1.75) than in whites (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.86-1.31). After adjustment for stroke risk factors, there was no longer an association of FIX levels with ischemic stroke, whereas the association of FXI levels with ischemic stroke was slightly attenuated. Conclusions Higher FIX antigen levels were associated with incident CHD in blacks but not in whites. FIX levels may increase CHD risk among blacks. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Low cigarette consumption and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: meta-analysis of 141 cohort studies in 55 study reports.

PubMed

Hackshaw, Allan; Morris, Joan K; Boniface, Sadie; Tang, Jin-Ling; Milenković, Dušan

2018-01-24

To use the relation between cigarette consumption and cardiovascular disease to quantify the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke for light smoking (one to five cigarettes/day). Systematic review and meta-analysis. Medline 1946 to May 2015, with manual searches of references. Prospective cohort studies with at least 50 events, reporting hazard ratios or relative risks (both hereafter referred to as relative risk) compared with never smokers or age specific incidence in relation to risk of coronary heart disease or stroke. MOOSE guidelines were followed. For each study, the relative risk was estimated for smoking one, five, or 20 cigarettes per day by using regression modelling between risk and cigarette consumption. Relative risks were adjusted for at least age and often additional confounders. The main measure was the excess relative risk for smoking one cigarette per day (RR 1_per_day -1) expressed as a proportion of that for smoking 20 cigarettes per day (RR 20_per_day -1), expected to be about 5% assuming a linear relation between risk and consumption (as seen with lung cancer). The relative risks for one, five, and 20 cigarettes per day were also pooled across all studies in a random effects meta-analysis. Separate analyses were done for each combination of sex and disorder. The meta-analysis included 55 publications containing 141 cohort studies. Among men, the pooled relative risk for coronary heart disease was 1.48 for smoking one cigarette per day and 2.04 for 20 cigarettes per day, using all studies, but 1.74 and 2.27 among studies in which the relative risk had been adjusted for multiple confounders. Among women, the pooled relative risks were 1.57 and 2.84 for one and 20 cigarettes per day (or 2.19 and 3.95 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). Men who smoked one cigarette per day had 46% of the excess relative risk for smoking 20 cigarettes per day (53% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors), and women had 31% of the excess risk (38% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). For stroke, the pooled relative risks for men were 1.25 and 1.64 for smoking one or 20 cigarettes per day (1.30 and 1.56 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). In women, the pooled relative risks were 1.31 and 2.16 for smoking one or 20 cigarettes per day (1.46 and 2.42 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). The excess risk for stroke associated with one cigarette per day (in relation to 20 cigarettes per day) was 41% for men and 34% for women (or 64% and 36% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). Relative risks were generally higher among women than men. Smoking only about one cigarette per day carries a risk of developing coronary heart disease and stroke much greater than expected: around half that for people who smoke 20 per day. No safe level of smoking exists for cardiovascular disease. Smokers should aim to quit instead of cutting down to significantly reduce their risk of these two common major disorders. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.