Sample records for risk analysis
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An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.
Aven, Terje
2018-05-01
To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-12-06
... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...
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2009-06-01
Valuation’s Risk Simulator..............................................46 viii 6. Palisade @RISK (http://www.palisade.com...71 APPENDIX B. PALISADE @RISK MODELING DATA AND ANALYSIS..................79 A. PALISADE @RISK...values ...81 3. @RISK Model Sorted by EMV ..............................................................82 4. Palisade @RISK Data Analysis
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Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.
Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy
2013-01-01
When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bonine, Lauren
2015-01-01
The presentation provides insight into the schedule risk analysis process used by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station Project. The presentation focuses on the schedule risk analysis process highlighting the methods for identification of risk inputs, the inclusion of generic risks identified outside the traditional continuous risk management process, and the development of tailored analysis products used to improve risk informed decision making.
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How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).
Hansson, Sven Ove
2018-02-26
Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-03-21
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Persimmon From the Republic... are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated... Africa. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES: We...
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49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-10-01
... 49 Transportation 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may be...
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49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-10-01
... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may be...
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[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].
Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui
2014-08-01
A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.
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Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations
2013-03-01
TITLE: Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Fengshan Liu...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations 5b. GRANT NUMBER...identifying the prevalence of women with incomplete visualization of the breast . We developed a code to estimate the breast cancer risks using the
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Horton, L R
2001-12-01
This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-02-19
... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food.'' FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Domini Bean... Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' with a 120-day comment...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-11-20
... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' and its information collection... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food.'' IV. How To...
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7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-01-01
... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human...
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7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-01-01
... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-10-20
..., Risk Management and Analysis (RAM) ACTION: Notice of request for public comments. SUMMARY: The... of 1995. Title of Information Collection: Risk Analysis and Management. OMB Control Number: None.... Methodology: The State Department, is implementing a Risk Analysis and Management Program to vet potential...
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Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ray, Paul S.
2002-01-01
Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.
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Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje
2014-07-01
This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-07-12
... Pending Pest Risk Analysis; Notice of Availability of Data Sheets for Taxa of Plants for Planting That Are... planting whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis. This action will allow interested... our lists of plants for planting whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-04-26
... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' that appeared in... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' with a 120-day...
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Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W
2015-12-01
Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-04-26
... Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' (the proposed preventive controls rule) and... Farm.'' The purpose of the draft RA is to provide a science-based risk analysis of those activity/food... Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act for hazard analysis and risk-based preventive controls (the proposed...
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Tijhuis, M J; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Poto, M; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, O; White, B C; Holm, F; Verhagen, H
2012-01-01
An integrated benefit-risk analysis aims to give guidance in decision situations where benefits do not clearly prevail over risks, and explicit weighing of benefits and risks is thus indicated. The BEPRARIBEAN project aims to advance benefit-risk analysis in the area of food and nutrition by learning from other fields. This paper constitutes the final stage of the project, in which commonalities and differences in benefit-risk analysis are identified between the Food and Nutrition field and other fields, namely Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics and Marketing-Finance, and Consumer Perception. From this, ways forward are characterized for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition. Integrated benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition may advance in the following ways: Increased engagement and communication between assessors, managers, and stakeholders; more pragmatic problem-oriented framing of assessment; accepting some risk; pre- and post-market analysis; explicit communication of the assessment purpose, input and output; more human (dose-response) data and more efficient use of human data; segmenting populations based on physiology; explicit consideration of value judgments in assessment; integration of multiple benefits and risks from multiple domains; explicit recognition of the impact of consumer beliefs, opinions, views, perceptions, and attitudes on behaviour; and segmenting populations based on behaviour; the opportunities proposed here do not provide ultimate solutions; rather, they define a collection of issues to be taken account of in developing methods, tools, practices and policies, as well as refining the regulatory context, for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition and other fields. Thus, these opportunities will now need to be explored further and incorporated into benefit-risk practice and policy. If accepted, incorporation of these opportunities will also involve a paradigm shift in Food and Nutrition benefit-risk analysis towards conceiving the analysis as a process of creating shared knowledge among all stakeholders. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve
2005-01-01
This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita
2017-05-01
Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.
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Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.
Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal
2018-02-01
Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.
Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof
2009-04-01
Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-12-15
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Rambutan Fruit (Nephelium...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the... Malaysia and Vietnam. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-06-01
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Apricot, Sweet Cherry, and... commodities from South Africa. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and... for approving the importation of commodities that, based on the findings of a pest risk analysis, can...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-02-02
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Litchi From the Republic of.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that... are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES: We will...
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Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jasanoff, S.
1993-04-01
During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topicsmore » include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.« less
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Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W
2015-01-01
Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180
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2013-06-30
QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS The use of quantitative cost risk analysis tools can be valuable in measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004...assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost, schedule, and...www.amazon.com Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review (RAND Working Paper WR-112-RC
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Intelligence Support to Supply Chain Risk Management
2012-06-01
of Master of Science in Operations Analysis Charles L. Carter, MA Major, USAF June 2012 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR...literature regarding supply chain risk management and intelligence doctrine. This review established the importance of supply chain risk analysis to...risk analysis . This research culminated in the development of a methodology for intelligence professionals to use to support supply chain risk
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38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR
2014-07-01
... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...
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38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-07-01
... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...
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38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-07-01
... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...
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49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-10-01
... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...
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38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-07-01
... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-07-08
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Swiss Chard From Colombia Into the... availability. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the... weeds via the importation of Swiss chard from Colombia. We are making the pest risk analysis available...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-03-15
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Papaya Fruit From Malaysia...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis for the purpose of... making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES: We will consider all...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-10-24
... States of fresh sapote fruit from Puerto Rico. Based on the findings of a pest risk analysis, which we... announcing the availability of the pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate... measures if: (1) No comments were received on the pest risk analysis; (2) the comments on the pest risk...
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[The role of a specialised risk analysis group in the Veterinary Services of a developing country].
Urbina-Amarís, M E
2003-08-01
Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was established, risk analysis in trade, and ultimately in Veterinary and Animal Health Services, has become strategically important. Irrespective of their concept (discipline, approach, method, process), all types of risk analysis in trade involve four periods or phases:--risk identification-- risk assessment--risk management--risk information or communication. All veterinarians involved in a risk analysis unit must have in-depth knowledge of statistics and the epidemiology of transmissible diseases, as well as a basic knowledge of veterinary science, economics, mathematics, data processing and social communication, to enable them to work with professionals in these disciplines. Many developing countries do not have enough well-qualified professionnals in these areas to support a risk analysis unit. This will need to be rectified by seeking strategic alliances with other public or private sectors that will provide the required support to run the unit properly. Due to the special nature of its risk analysis functions, its role in supporting decision-making, and the criteria of independence and transparency that are so crucial to its operations, the hierarchical position of the risk analysis unit should be close to the top management of the Veterinary Service. Due to the shortage of personnel in developing countries with the required training and scientific and technical qualifications, countries with organisations responsible for both animal and plant health protection would be advised to set up integrated plant and animal risk analysis units. In addition, these units could take charge of all activities relating to WTO agreements and regional agreements on animal and plant health management.
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Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.
Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H
2017-08-01
With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Improvement of the cost-benefit analysis algorithm for high-rise construction projects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gafurov, Andrey; Skotarenko, Oksana; Plotnikov, Vladimir
2018-03-01
The specific nature of high-rise investment projects entailing long-term construction, high risks, etc. implies a need to improve the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis. An improved algorithm is described in the article. For development of the improved algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects, the following methods were used: weighted average cost of capital, dynamic cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, risk mapping, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis of critical ratios, etc. This comprehensive approach helped to adapt the original algorithm to feasibility objectives in high-rise construction. The authors put together the algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects on the basis of risk mapping and sensitivity analysis of critical ratios. The suggested project risk management algorithms greatly expand the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis in investment projects, namely: the "Project analysis scenario" flowchart, improving quality and reliability of forecasting reports in investment projects; the main stages of cash flow adjustment based on risk mapping for better cost-benefit project analysis provided the broad range of risks in high-rise construction; analysis of dynamic cost-benefit values considering project sensitivity to crucial variables, improving flexibility in implementation of high-rise projects.
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14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...
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14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...
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14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR
2014-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...
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14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...
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14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...
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Berretta, Massimiliano; Micek, Agnieszka; Lafranconi, Alessandra; Rossetti, Sabrina; Di Francia, Raffaele; De Paoli, Paolo; Rossi, Paola; Facchini, Gaetano
2018-04-17
Coffee consumption has been associated with numerous cancers, but evidence on ovarian cancer risk is controversial. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis on prospective cohort studies in order to review the evidence on coffee consumption and risk of ovarian cancer. Studies were identified through searching the PubMed and MEDLINE databases up to March 2017. Risk estimates were retrieved from the studies, and dose-response analysis was modelled by using restricted cubic splines. Additionally, a stratified analysis by menopausal status was performed. A total of 8 studies were eligible for the dose-response meta-analysis. Studies included in the analysis comprised 787,076 participants and 3,541 ovarian cancer cases. The results showed that coffee intake was not associated with ovarian cancer risk (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.26). Stratified and subgroup analysis showed consisted results. This comprehensive meta-analysis did not find evidence of an association between the consumption of coffee and risk of ovarian cancer.
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Cherry, C; Mohr, A Hofelich; Lindsay, T; Diez-Gonzalez, F; Hueston, W; Sampedro, F
2014-12-01
Risk analysis is increasingly promoted as a tool to support science-based decisions regarding food safety. An online survey comprising 45 questions was used to gather information on the implementation of food safety risk analysis within the Latin American and Caribbean regions. Professionals working in food safety in academia, government, and private sectors in Latin American and Caribbean countries were contacted by email and surveyed to assess their individual knowledge of risk analysis and perceptions of its implementation in the region. From a total of 279 participants, 97% reported a familiarity with risk analysis concepts; however, fewer than 25% were able to correctly identify its key principles. The reported implementation of risk analysis among the different professional sectors was relatively low (46%). Participants from industries in countries with a long history of trade with the United States and the European Union, such as Mexico, Brazil, and Chile, reported perceptions of a higher degree of risk analysis implementation (56, 50, and 20%, respectively) than those from the rest of the countries, suggesting that commerce may be a driver for achieving higher food safety standards. Disagreement among respondents on the extent of the use of risk analysis in national food safety regulations was common, illustrating a systematic lack of understanding of the current regulatory status of the country. The results of this survey can be used to target further risk analysis training on selected sectors and countries.
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Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-01-01
... flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to... isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public. (1) Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public...
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Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-01-01
... flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to... isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public. (1) Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public...
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Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-01-01
... flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to... isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public. (1) Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public...
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Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR
2014-01-01
... flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to... isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public. (1) Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public...
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Impact of model-based risk analysis for liver surgery planning.
Hansen, C; Zidowitz, S; Preim, B; Stavrou, G; Oldhafer, K J; Hahn, H K
2014-05-01
A model-based risk analysis for oncologic liver surgery was described in previous work (Preim et al. in Proceedings of international symposium on computer assisted radiology and surgery (CARS), Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 353–358, 2002; Hansen et al. Int I Comput Assist Radiol Surg 4(5):469–474, 2009). In this paper, we present an evaluation of this method. To prove whether and how the risk analysis facilitates the process of liver surgery planning, an explorative user study with 10 liver experts was conducted. The purpose was to compare and analyze their decision-making. The results of the study show that model-based risk analysis enhances the awareness of surgical risk in the planning stage. Participants preferred smaller resection volumes and agreed more on the safety margins’ width in case the risk analysis was available. In addition, time to complete the planning task and confidence of participants were not increased when using the risk analysis. This work shows that the applied model-based risk analysis may influence important planning decisions in liver surgery. It lays a basis for further clinical evaluations and points out important fields for future research.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan
2018-02-01
Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.
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Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.
Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia
2015-09-01
We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Program risk analysis handbook
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Batson, R. G.
1987-01-01
NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.
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Advances in risk assessment and communication.
Goldstein, Bernard D
2005-01-01
Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.
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A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.
Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet
2018-01-01
Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
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Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.
1976-11-01
Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis,more » and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, K.; Cheng, D. B.; He, J. J.; Zhao, Y. L.
2018-02-01
Collapse gully erosion is a specific type of soil erosion in the red soil region of southern China, and early warning and prevention of the occurrence of collapse gully erosion is very important. Based on the idea of risk assessment, this research, taking Guangdong province as an example, adopt the information acquisition analysis and the logistic regression analysis, to discuss the feasibility for collapse gully erosion risk assessment in regional scale, and compare the applicability of the different risk assessment methods. The results show that in the Guangdong province, the risk degree of collapse gully erosion occurrence is high in northeastern and western area, and relatively low in southwestern and central part. The comparing analysis of the different risk assessment methods on collapse gully also indicated that the risk distribution patterns from the different methods were basically consistent. However, the accuracy of risk map from the information acquisition analysis method was slightly better than that from the logistic regression analysis method.
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10 CFR 800.102 - Review by Application Evaluation Panel.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-01-01
... arrange for risk analysis, independent of any such analysis submitted by or on behalf of the applicant. Risk analysis shall be directed both to the loan request and to applicant's prospective performance of... risk analysis, and shall give its conclusions in writing to the Application Approving Official, with...
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10 CFR 800.102 - Review by Application Evaluation Panel.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-01-01
... arrange for risk analysis, independent of any such analysis submitted by or on behalf of the applicant. Risk analysis shall be directed both to the loan request and to applicant's prospective performance of... risk analysis, and shall give its conclusions in writing to the Application Approving Official, with...
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10 CFR 800.102 - Review by Application Evaluation Panel.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-01-01
... arrange for risk analysis, independent of any such analysis submitted by or on behalf of the applicant. Risk analysis shall be directed both to the loan request and to applicant's prospective performance of... risk analysis, and shall give its conclusions in writing to the Application Approving Official, with...
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10 CFR 800.102 - Review by Application Evaluation Panel.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-01-01
... arrange for risk analysis, independent of any such analysis submitted by or on behalf of the applicant. Risk analysis shall be directed both to the loan request and to applicant's prospective performance of... risk analysis, and shall give its conclusions in writing to the Application Approving Official, with...
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10 CFR 800.102 - Review by Application Evaluation Panel.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR
2014-01-01
... arrange for risk analysis, independent of any such analysis submitted by or on behalf of the applicant. Risk analysis shall be directed both to the loan request and to applicant's prospective performance of... risk analysis, and shall give its conclusions in writing to the Application Approving Official, with...
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Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.
Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will
2015-03-01
The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.
Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J
2010-04-01
Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2000-01-01
Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.
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Xie, Shu-Zhe; Liu, Zhi-Zhong; Yu, Jun-hua; Liu, Li; Wang, Wei; Xie, Dao-Lin; Qin, Jiang-Bo
2015-11-01
Many molecular epidemiological studies have been performed to explore the association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and cancer risk in diverse populations. However, the results were inconsistent. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between cancer risk and MTHFR C677T (150,086 cases and 200,699 controls from 446 studies) polymorphism. Overall, significantly increased cancer risk was found when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. In the further stratified and sensitivity analyses, significantly increased breast cancer risk was found in Asians and Indians, significantly decreased colon cancer risk was found, significantly decreased colorectal cancer risk was found in male population, significantly increased gastric cancer risk was found in Caucasians and Asians, significantly increased hepatocellular cancer risk was found in Asians, significantly decreased adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (AALL) risk was found in Caucasians, significantly decreased childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (CALL) risk was found in Asians, and significantly increased multiple myeloma and NHL risk was found in Caucasians. In summary, this meta-analysis suggests that MTHFR C677T polymorphism is associated with increased breast cancer, gastric cancer, and hepatocellular cancer risk in Asians, is associated with increased gastric cancer, multiple myeloma, and NHL risk in Caucasians, is associated with decreased AALL risk in Caucasians, is associated with decreased CALL risk in Asians, is associated with increased breast cancer risk in Asians, is associated with decreased colon cancer risk, and is associated with decreased colorectal cancer risk in male population. Moreover, this meta-analysis also points out the importance of new studies, such as Asians of HNC, Asians of lung cancer, and Indians of breast cancer, because they had high heterogeneity in this meta-analysis (I(2) > 75%).
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Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J
2003-07-01
Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.
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Status of risk-benefit analysis
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Van Horn, A.J.; Wilson, R.
1976-12-01
The benefits and deficiencies of cost benefit analysis are reviewed. It is pointed out that, if decision making involving risks and benefits is to improve, more attention must be paid to the clear presentation of the assumptions, values, and results. Reports need to present concise summaries which convey the uncertainties and limitations of the analysis in addition to the matrix of costs, risks, and benefits. As the field of risk-benefit analysis advances the estimation of risks and benefits will become more precise and implicit valuations will be made more explicit. Corresponding improvements must also be made to enhance communications betweenmore » the risk-benefit analyst and the accountable decision maker.« less
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Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.
2018-04-01
There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.
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Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.
Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor
2012-08-01
Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.
Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S
1995-12-01
All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.
1995-01-01
Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.
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A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bahamid, R. A.; Doh, S. I.
2017-11-01
In the construction industry, risk management concept is a less popular technique. There are three main stages in the systematic approach to risk management in construction industry. These stages include: a) risk response; b) risk analysis and evaluation; and c) risk identification. The high risk related to construction business affects each of its participants; while operational analysis and management of construction related risks remain an enormous task to practitioners of the industry. This paper tends towards reviewing the existing literature on construction project risk managements in developing countries specifically on risk management process. The literature lacks ample risk management process approach capable of capturing risk impact on diverse project objectives. This literature review aims at discovering the frequently used techniques in risk identification and analysis. It also attempts to identify response to clarifying the different classifications of risk sources in the existing literature of developing countries, and to identify the future research directions on project risks in the area of construction in developing countries.
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Wang, Ting-Ting; Li, Jin-Mei; Zhou, Dong
2016-01-01
With great interest, we read the paper "Polymorphisms in IL-4/IL-13 pathway genes and glioma risk: an updated meta-analysis" (by Chen PQ et al.) [1], which has reached important conclusions about the relationship between polymorphisms in interleukin (IL)-4/IL-13 pathway genes and glioma risk. Through quantitative analysis, the meta-analysis found no association between IL-4/IL-13 pathway genetic polymorphisms and glioma risk (Chen et al. in Tumor Biol 36:121-127, 2015). The meta-analysis is the most comprehensive study of polymorphisms in the IL-4/IL-13 pathway and glioma risk. Nevertheless, some deficiencies still exist in this meta-analysis that we would like to raise.
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Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-01-01
... authorized pending pest risk analysis while the information presented by commenters is analyzed and... importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis. 319.37-2a Section 319.37-2a Agriculture Regulations... plants for planting whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis. (a) Determination by...
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Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chueng, Kar-Ming
2008-01-01
The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.
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Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) I/D polymorphism is a risk factor of allergic rhinitis.
Li, P; Cao, L; Han, X
2017-08-30
Some previous studies and meta-analysis investigated the association between ACE I/D polymorphism and allergic rhinitis risk. However, the results were conflicting. This meta-analysis, therefore, was performed to evaluate the association between ACE I/D polymorphism and allergic rhinitis risk. Online electronic databases (PubMed and EMBASE) were searched. The strength was evaluated by calculating the OR and 95% CI. Five studies were finally included in this meta-analysis. These studies included 681 cases and 629 controls. ACE I/D polymorphism was significantly associated with allergic rhinitis risk (OR = 1.17; 95% CI 1.07 - 1.29; P = 0.001). In the subgroup analysis of race, Asians showed the increased allergic rhinitis risk (OR = 1.15; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.30; P = 0.03). In a stratified analysis by age, adults with ACE I/D polymorphism showed the increased allergic rhinitis risk (OR = 1.16; 95% CI 1.04 - 1.29; P = 0.006). However, children did not have the significantly increased allergic rhinitis risk (OR = 1.24; 95% CI 0.99 - 1.56; P = 0.06). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicated that ACE I/D polymorphism was significantly associated with allergic rhinitis risk.
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Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species
Stohlgren, T.J.; Schnase, J.L.
2006-01-01
Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).
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Global Persistent Attack: A Systems Architecture, Process Modeling, and Risk Analysis Approach
2008-06-01
develop an analysis process for quantifying risk associated with the limitations presented by a fiscally constrained environment. The second step...previous independent analysis of each force structure provided information for quantifying risk associated with the given force presentations, the
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Hazards and occupational risk in hard coal mines - a critical analysis of legal requirements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krause, Marcin
2017-11-01
This publication concerns the problems of occupational safety and health in hard coal mines, the basic elements of which are the mining hazards and the occupational risk. The work includes a comparative analysis of selected provisions of general and industry-specific law regarding the analysis of hazards and occupational risk assessment. Based on a critical analysis of legal requirements, basic assumptions regarding the practical guidelines for occupational risk assessment in underground coal mines have been proposed.
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Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.
Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping
2012-01-01
In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Weber, Elke U.; Shafir, Sharoni; Blais, Ann-Renee
2004-01-01
This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk…
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Risk analysis based on hazards interactions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost
2017-04-01
Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).
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Multiple Interacting Risk Factors: On Methods for Allocating Risk Factor Interactions.
Price, Bertram; MacNicoll, Michael
2015-05-01
A persistent problem in health risk analysis where it is known that a disease may occur as a consequence of multiple risk factors with interactions is allocating the total risk of the disease among the individual risk factors. This problem, referred to here as risk apportionment, arises in various venues, including: (i) public health management, (ii) government programs for compensating injured individuals, and (iii) litigation. Two methods have been described in the risk analysis and epidemiology literature for allocating total risk among individual risk factors. One method uses weights to allocate interactions among the individual risk factors. The other method is based on risk accounting axioms and finding an optimal and unique allocation that satisfies the axioms using a procedure borrowed from game theory. Where relative risk or attributable risk is the risk measure, we find that the game-theory-determined allocation is the same as the allocation where risk factor interactions are apportioned to individual risk factors using equal weights. Therefore, the apportionment problem becomes one of selecting a meaningful set of weights for allocating interactions among the individual risk factors. Equal weights and weights proportional to the risks of the individual risk factors are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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The Use and Abuse of Risk Analysis in Policy Debate.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Herbeck, Dale A.; Katsulas, John P.
The best check on the preposterous claims of crisis rhetoric is an appreciation of the nature of risk analysis and how it functions in argumentation. The use of risk analysis is common in policy debate. While the stock issues paradigm focused the debate exclusively on the affirmative case, the advent of policy systems analysis has transformed…
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Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H
2017-10-01
Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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Beregovykh, V V; Spitskiy, O R
2014-01-01
Risk-based approach is used for examination of impact of different factors on quality of medicinal products in technology transfer. A general diagram is offered for risk analysis execution in technology transfer from pharmaceutical development to production. When transferring technology to full- scale commercial production it is necessary to investigate and simulate production process application beforehand in new real conditions. The manufacturing process is the core factorfor risk analysis having the most impact on quality attributes of a medicinal product. Further importantfactors are linked to materials and products to be handled and manufacturing environmental conditions such as premises, equipment and personnel. Usage of risk-based approach in designing of multipurpose production facility of medicinal products is shown where quantitative risk analysis tool RAMM (Risk Analysis and Mitigation Matrix) was applied.
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Bønes, Erlend; Hasvold, Per; Henriksen, Eva; Strandenaes, Thomas
2007-09-01
Instant messaging (IM) is suited for immediate communication because messages are delivered almost in real time. Results from studies of IM use in enterprise work settings make us believe that IM based services may prove useful also within the healthcare sector. However, today's public instant messaging services do not have the level of information security required for adoption of IM in healthcare. We proposed MedIMob, our own architecture for a secure enterprise IM service for use in healthcare. MedIMob supports IM clients on mobile devices in addition to desktop based clients. Security threats were identified in a risk analysis of the MedIMob architecture. The risk analysis process consists of context identification, threat identification, analysis of consequences and likelihood, risk evaluation, and proposals for risk treatment. The risk analysis revealed a number of potential threats to the information security of a service like this. Many of the identified threats are general when dealing with mobile devices and sensitive data; others are threats which are more specific to our service and architecture. Individual threats identified in the risks analysis are discussed and possible counter measures presented. The risk analysis showed that most of the proposed risk treatment measures must be implemented to obtain an acceptable risk level; among others blocking much of the additional functionality of the smartphone. To conclude on the usefulness of this IM service, it will be evaluated in a trial study of the human-computer interaction. Further work also includes an improved design of the proposed MedIMob architecture. 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd
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A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.
Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J
2016-12-01
Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
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A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management
Carol Miller; Alan A. Ager
2012-01-01
Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels...
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NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen
2008-01-01
This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.
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Oil-spill risk analysis: Beaufort Sea outer continental shelf lease sale 170. Final report
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Anderson, C.M.; Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.
1997-02-01
This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for OCS Lease Sale 170, Beaufort Sea. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sale.
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A concept analysis of forensic risk.
Kettles, A M
2004-08-01
Forensic risk is a term used in relation to many forms of clinical practice, such as assessment, intervention and management. Rarely is the term defined in the literature and as a concept it is multifaceted. Concept analysis is a method for exploring and evaluating the meaning of words. It gives precise definitions, both theoretical and operational, for use in theory, clinical practice and research. A concept analysis provides a logical basis for defining terms through providing defining attributes, case examples (model, contrary, borderline, related), antecedents and consequences and the implications for nursing. Concept analysis helps us to refine and define a concept that derives from practice, research or theory. This paper will use the strategy of concept analysis to find a working definition for the concept of forensic risk. In conclusion, the historical background and literature are reviewed using concept analysis to bring the term into focus and to define it more clearly. Forensic risk is found to derive both from forensic practice and from risk theory. A proposed definition of forensic risk is given.
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An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.
Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe
2011-07-01
In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)
2001-01-01
A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.
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Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.
Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David
2014-09-01
Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.
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Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis
Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David
2014-01-01
Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks. PMID:25210944
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Guikema, Seth
2012-07-01
Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often-implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This "Perspective" paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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38 CFR 75.114 - Accelerated response.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-07-01
... other credit protection services prior to the completion of a risk analysis if: (1) The Secretary... provide notice of the breach prior to completion of a risk analysis, and subsequently advise individuals... the results, of the risk analysis, if the Secretary directs that one be completed. (b) In determining...
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38 CFR 75.114 - Accelerated response.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-07-01
... other credit protection services prior to the completion of a risk analysis if: (1) The Secretary... provide notice of the breach prior to completion of a risk analysis, and subsequently advise individuals... the results, of the risk analysis, if the Secretary directs that one be completed. (b) In determining...
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38 CFR 75.114 - Accelerated response.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR
2014-07-01
... other credit protection services prior to the completion of a risk analysis if: (1) The Secretary... provide notice of the breach prior to completion of a risk analysis, and subsequently advise individuals... the results, of the risk analysis, if the Secretary directs that one be completed. (b) In determining...
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38 CFR 75.114 - Accelerated response.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-07-01
... other credit protection services prior to the completion of a risk analysis if: (1) The Secretary... provide notice of the breach prior to completion of a risk analysis, and subsequently advise individuals... the results, of the risk analysis, if the Secretary directs that one be completed. (b) In determining...
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A quality risk management model approach for cell therapy manufacturing.
Lopez, Fabio; Di Bartolo, Chiara; Piazza, Tommaso; Passannanti, Antonino; Gerlach, Jörg C; Gridelli, Bruno; Triolo, Fabio
2010-12-01
International regulatory authorities view risk management as an essential production need for the development of innovative, somatic cell-based therapies in regenerative medicine. The available risk management guidelines, however, provide little guidance on specific risk analysis approaches and procedures applicable in clinical cell therapy manufacturing. This raises a number of problems. Cell manufacturing is a poorly automated process, prone to operator-introduced variations, and affected by heterogeneity of the processed organs/tissues and lot-dependent variability of reagent (e.g., collagenase) efficiency. In this study, the principal challenges faced in a cell-based product manufacturing context (i.e., high dependence on human intervention and absence of reference standards for acceptable risk levels) are identified and addressed, and a risk management model approach applicable to manufacturing of cells for clinical use is described for the first time. The use of the heuristic and pseudo-quantitative failure mode and effect analysis/failure mode and critical effect analysis risk analysis technique associated with direct estimation of severity, occurrence, and detection is, in this specific context, as effective as, but more efficient than, the analytic hierarchy process. Moreover, a severity/occurrence matrix and Pareto analysis can be successfully adopted to identify priority failure modes on which to act to mitigate risks. The application of this approach to clinical cell therapy manufacturing in regenerative medicine is also discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.
Holden, William L
2003-01-01
Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-10-12
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Strawberries From Jordan... importation into the continental United States of fresh strawberries from Jordan. Based on this analysis, we... importation of fresh strawberries from Jordan. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-08-17
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Shredded Lettuce From Egypt AGENCY... into the continental United States of fresh shredded lettuce from Egypt. Based on this analysis, we... fresh shredded lettuce from Egypt. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for...
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Martinez-Fiestas, Myriam; Rodríguez-Garzón, Ignacio; Delgado-Padial, Antonio; Lucas-Ruiz, Valeriano
2017-09-01
This article presents a cross-cultural study on perceived risk in the construction industry. Worker samples from three different countries were studied: Spain, Peru and Nicaragua. The main goal was to explain how construction workers perceive their occupational hazard and to analyze how this is related to their national culture. The model used to measure perceived risk was the psychometric paradigm. The results show three very similar profiles, indicating that risk perception is independent of nationality. A cultural analysis was conducted using the Hofstede model. The results of this analysis and the relation to perceived risk showed that risk perception in construction is independent of national culture. Finally, a multiple lineal regression analysis was conducted to determine what qualitative attributes could predict the global quantitative size of risk perception. All of the findings have important implications regarding the management of safety in the workplace.
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Li, Guowei; Cook, Deborah J; Levine, Mitchell A H; Guyatt, Gordon; Crowther, Mark; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Holbrook, Anne; Lamontagne, Francois; Walter, Stephen D; Ferguson, Niall D; Finfer, Simon; Arabi, Yaseen M; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Cooper, D Jamie; Thabane, Lehana
2015-09-01
Failure to recognize the presence of competing risk or to account for it may result in misleading conclusions. We aimed to perform a competing risk analysis to assess the efficacy of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) in venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical-surgical critically ill patients, taking death as a competing risk.This was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized study of the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) database. A total of 3746 medical-surgical critically ill patients from 67 intensive care units (ICUs) in 6 countries receiving either subcutaneous UFH 5000 IU twice daily (n = 1873) or dalteparin 5000 IU once daily plus once-daily placebo (n = 1873) were included for analysis.A total of 205 incident proximal leg deep vein thromboses (PLDVT) were reported during follow-up, among which 96 were in the dalteparin group and 109 were in the UFH group. No significant treatment effect of dalteparin on PLDVT compared with UFH was observed in either the competing risk analysis or standard survival analysis (also known as cause-specific analysis) using multivariable models adjusted for APACHE II score, history of VTE, need for vasopressors, and end-stage renal disease: sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70-1.21, P-value = 0.56 for the competing risk analysis; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68-1.23, P-value = 0.57 for cause-specific analysis. Dalteparin was associated with a significant reduction in risk of pulmonary embolism (PE): SHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31-0.94, P-value = 0.02 for the competing risk analysis; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30-0.88, P-value = 0.01 for the cause-specific analysis. Two additional sensitivity analyses using the treatment variable as a time-dependent covariate and using as-treated and per-protocol approaches demonstrated similar findings.This competing risk analysis yields no significant treatment effect on PLDVT but a superior effect of dalteparin on PE compared with UFH in medical-surgical critically ill patients. The findings from the competing risk method are in accordance with results from the cause-specific analysis.clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00182143.
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Li, Guowei; Cook, Deborah J.; Levine, Mitchell A.H.; Guyatt, Gordon; Crowther, Mark; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Holbrook, Anne; Lamontagne, Francois; Walter, Stephen D.; Ferguson, Niall D.; Finfer, Simon; Arabi, Yaseen M.; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Cooper, D. Jamie; Thabane, Lehana
2015-01-01
Abstract Failure to recognize the presence of competing risk or to account for it may result in misleading conclusions. We aimed to perform a competing risk analysis to assess the efficacy of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) in venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical-surgical critically ill patients, taking death as a competing risk. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized study of the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) database. A total of 3746 medical-surgical critically ill patients from 67 intensive care units (ICUs) in 6 countries receiving either subcutaneous UFH 5000 IU twice daily (n = 1873) or dalteparin 5000 IU once daily plus once-daily placebo (n = 1873) were included for analysis. A total of 205 incident proximal leg deep vein thromboses (PLDVT) were reported during follow-up, among which 96 were in the dalteparin group and 109 were in the UFH group. No significant treatment effect of dalteparin on PLDVT compared with UFH was observed in either the competing risk analysis or standard survival analysis (also known as cause-specific analysis) using multivariable models adjusted for APACHE II score, history of VTE, need for vasopressors, and end-stage renal disease: sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70–1.21, P-value = 0.56 for the competing risk analysis; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68–1.23, P-value = 0.57 for cause-specific analysis. Dalteparin was associated with a significant reduction in risk of pulmonary embolism (PE): SHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31–0.94, P-value = 0.02 for the competing risk analysis; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30–0.88, P-value = 0.01 for the cause-specific analysis. Two additional sensitivity analyses using the treatment variable as a time-dependent covariate and using as-treated and per-protocol approaches demonstrated similar findings. This competing risk analysis yields no significant treatment effect on PLDVT but a superior effect of dalteparin on PE compared with UFH in medical-surgical critically ill patients. The findings from the competing risk method are in accordance with results from the cause-specific analysis. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00182143 PMID:26356708
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-03-13
... science-based risk analysis of those activity/food combinations that would be considered low risk. We... proposed requirements of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act for hazard analysis and risk-based... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration 21 CFR Part 117 [Docket No...
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TNF-308 G/A polymorphism and risk of acne vulgaris: a meta-analysis.
Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping
2014-01-01
The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37-5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13-4.86, p = 0.023). This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings.
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Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.
Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip
2018-02-01
Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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A Primer on Risks, Issues and Opportunities
2016-08-01
likelihood or consequence. A risk has three main parts: a future root cause, a likelihood and a consequence. The future root cause is determined...through root cause analysis, which is the most important part of any risk management effort. SPECIAL SECTION: RISK MANAGEMENT Defense AT&L: July-August...2016 10 Root cause analysis gets to the heart of the risk. Why does the risk exist? What is its nature? How will the risk occur? What should be
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Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin
2015-01-01
Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk. PMID:26020518
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Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.
Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R
2011-01-01
Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Proton-pump inhibitors and risk of fractures: an update meta-analysis.
Zhou, B; Huang, Y; Li, H; Sun, W; Liu, J
2016-01-01
To identify the relationship between proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) and the risk of fracture, we conducted an update meta-analysis of observational studies. Results showed that PPI use was associated with a modestly increased risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture. Many studies have investigated the association of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) with fracture risk, but the results have been inconsistent. To evaluate this question, we performed a meta-analysis of relevant observational studies. A systematic literature search up to February 2015 was performed in PubMed. We combined relative risks (RRs) for fractures using random-effects models and conducted subgroup and stratified analyses. Eighteen studies involving a total of 244,109 fracture cases were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled analysis showed that PPI use could moderately increase the risk of hip fracture [RR = 1.26, 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) 1.16–1.36]. There was statistically significant heterogeneity among studies (p < 0.001; I 2 = 71.9 %). After limiting to cohort studies, there was also a moderate increase in hip fracture risk without evidence of study heterogeneity. Pooling revealed that short-term use (<1 year) and longer use (>1 year) were similarly associated with increased risk of hip fracture. Furthermore, a moderately increased risk of spine (RR = 1.58, 95 % CI 1.38–1.82) and any-site fracture (RR = 1.33, 95 % CI 1.15–1.54) was also found among PPI users. In this update meta-analysis of observational studies, PPI use modestly increased the risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture, but no evidence of duration effect in subgroup analysis.
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Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William
2009-01-01
This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).
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Extractive waste management: A risk analysis approach.
Mehta, Neha; Dino, Giovanna Antonella; Ajmone-Marsan, Franco; Lasagna, Manuela; Romè, Chiara; De Luca, Domenico Antonio
2018-05-01
Abandoned mine sites continue to present serious environmental hazards because the heavy metals associated with extractive waste are continuously released into the environment, where they threaten human life and the environment. Remediating and securing extractive waste are complex, lengthy and costly processes. Thus, in most European countries, a site is considered for intervention when it poses a risk to human health and the surrounding environment. As a consequence, risk analysis presents a viable decisional approach towards the management of extractive waste. To evaluate the effects posed by extractive waste to human health and groundwater, a risk analysis approach was used for an abandoned nickel extraction site in Campello Monti in North Italy. This site is located in the Southern Italian Alps. The area consists of large and voluminous mafic rocks intruded by mantle peridotite. The mining activities in this area have generated extractive waste. A risk analysis of the site was performed using Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) guidelines, considering the properties of extractive waste and water for the properties of environmental matrices. The results showed the presence of carcinogenic risk due to arsenic and risks to groundwater due to nickel. The results of the risk analysis form a basic understanding of the current situation at the site, which is affected by extractive waste. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Langley Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate Technology Assessment/Portfolio Analysis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cavanaugh, Stephen; Chytka, Trina; Arcara, Phil; Jones, Sharon; Stanley, Doug; Wilhite, Alan W.
2006-01-01
Systems analysis develops and documents candidate mission and architectures, associated system concepts, enabling capabilities and investment strategies to achieve NASA s strategic objectives. The technology assessment process connects the mission and architectures to the investment strategies. In order to successfully implement a technology assessment, there is a need to collect, manipulate, analyze, document, and disseminate technology-related information. Information must be collected and organized on the wide variety of potentially applicable technologies, including: previous research results, key technical parameters and characteristics, technology readiness levels, relationships to other technologies, costs, and potential barriers and risks. This information must be manipulated to facilitate planning and documentation. An assessment is included of the programmatic and technical risks associated with each technology task as well as potential risk mitigation plans. Risks are assessed and tracked in terms of likelihood of the risk occurring and consequences of the risk if it does occur. The risk assessments take into account cost, schedule, and technical risk dimensions. Assessment data must be simplified for presentation to decision makers. The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center has a wealth of experience in performing Technology Assessment and Portfolio Analysis as this has been a business line since 1978.
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Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Groen, Frank
2010-01-01
This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.
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Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.
2010-01-01
The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.
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Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.
Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James
2009-04-01
The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.
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Tu, Huakang; Sun, Liping; Dong, Xiao; Gong, Yuehua; Xu, Qian; Jing, Jingjing; Bostick, Roberd M; Wu, Xifeng; Yuan, Yuan
2017-05-01
We aimed to assess a serological biopsy using five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers-pepsinogen I (PGI), PGII, PGI/II ratio, anti-Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) antibody, and gastrin-17 (G-17)-for identifying high-risk individuals and predicting risk of developing gastric cancer (GC). Among 12,112 participants with prospective follow-up from an ongoing population-based screening program using both serology and gastroscopy in China, we conducted a multi-phase study involving a cross-sectional analysis, a follow-up analysis, and an integrative risk prediction modeling analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, the five biomarkers (especially PGII, the PGI/II ratio, and H. pylori sero-positivity) were associated with the presence of precancerous gastric lesions or GC at enrollment. In the follow-up analysis, low PGI levels and PGI/II ratios were associated with higher risk of developing GC, and both low (<0.5 pmol/l) and high (>4.7 pmol/l) G-17 levels were associated with higher risk of developing GC, suggesting a J-shaped association. In the risk prediction modeling analysis, the five biomarkers combined yielded a C statistic of 0.803 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.789-0.816) and improved prediction beyond traditional risk factors (C statistic from 0.580 to 0.811, P<0.001) for identifying precancerous lesions at enrollment, and higher serological biopsy scores based on the five biomarkers at enrollment were associated with higher risk of developing GC during follow-up (P for trend <0.001). A serological biopsy composed of the five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers could be used to identify high-risk individuals for further diagnostic gastroscopy, and to stratify individuals' risk of developing GC and thus to guide targeted screening and precision prevention.
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76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-12-06
... network. Vetting requests, analyses, and results will be stored separately on a classified computer... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice 7709] Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis... a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management Records, State-78, pursuant to the provisions of...
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78 FR 43838 - Airworthiness Directives; Hamilton Sundstrand Corporation Propellers
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-07-22
... qualitative risk assessment. The data gathered was then used for a more representative quantitative risk analysis. The results from the bond strength tests predicts a significantly lower fleet risk than the prior... predicts a significantly lower fleet risk than the prior qualitative analysis. Accordingly, we withdraw the...
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77 FR 55371 - System Safety Program
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-09-07
...-based rule and FRA seeks comments on all aspects of the proposed rule. An SSP would be implemented by a... SSP would be the risk-based hazard management program and risk-based hazard analysis. A properly implemented risk-based hazard management program and risk-based hazard analysis would identify the hazards and...
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Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin
2015-04-01
The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.
2011-12-01
Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.
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Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.
Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi
2015-10-01
In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Sui, Hua; Sun, Nijing; Zhan, Libin; Lu, Xiaoguang; Chen, Tuo; Mao, Xinyong
2016-01-01
The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly around the world. Work-related stress is thought to be a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes; however, this association has not been widely studied, and the findings that have been reported are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to explore the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. A systematic literature search and manual search limited to articles published in English were performed to select the prospective cohort studies evaluated the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes up to September 2014 from four electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science. A random-effects model was used to estimate the overall risk. No significant association was found between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes based on meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies involving 214,086 participants and 5,511 cases (job demands: relative risk 0.94 [95% confidence interval 0.72-1.23]; decision latitude: relative risk 1.16 [0.85-1.58]; job strain: relative risk 1.12 [.0.95-1.32]). However, an association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes was observed in women (job strain: relative risk 1.22 [1.01-1.46]) (P = 0.04). A sensitivity analysis conducted by excluding one study in each turn yielded similar results. No publication bias was detected with a funnel plot despite the limited number of studies included in the analysis. The results of this meta-analysis did not confirm a direct association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. In subgroup analyses we found job strain was a risk factor for type 2 diabetes in women.
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Xue, Xiu-Juan; Gao, Qing; Qiao, Jian-Hong; Zhang, Jie; Xu, Cui-Ping; Liu, Ju
2014-01-01
This meta-analysis was to summarize the published studies about the association between red/processed meat consumption and the risk of lung cancer. 5 databases were systematically reviewed, and random-effect model was used to pool the study results and to assess dose-response relationships. Results shown that six cohort studies and twenty eight case-control studies were included in this meat-analysis. The pooled Risk Radios (RR) for total red meat and processed meat were 1.44 (95% CI, 1.29-1.61) and 1.23 (95% CI, 1.10-1.37), respectively. Dose-response analysis revealed that for every increment of 120 grams red meat per day the risk of lung cancer increases 35% and for every increment of 50 grams red meat per day the risk of lung cancer increases 20%. The present dose-response meta-analysis suggested that both red and processed meat consumption showed a positive effect on lung cancer risk. PMID:25035778
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The impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of developing prostate cancer.
Vartolomei, Mihai Dorin; Kimura, Shoji; Ferro, Matteo; Foerster, Beat; Abufaraj, Mohammad; Briganti, Alberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Shariat, Shahrokh F
2018-01-01
To investigate the impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). We focused on the differential effect of moderate consumption of red versus white wine. This study was a meta-analysis that includes data from case-control and cohort studies. A systematic search of Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed on December 1, 2017. Studies were deemed eligible if they assessed the risk of PCa due to red, white, or any wine using multivariable logistic regression analysis. We performed a formal meta-analysis for the risk of PCa according to moderate wine and wine type consumption (white or red). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochrane's Q test and I 2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's regression test. A total of 930 abstracts and titles were initially identified. After removal of duplicates, reviews, and conference abstracts, 83 full-text original articles were screened. Seventeen studies (611,169 subjects) were included for final evaluation and fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the case of moderate wine consumption: the pooled risk ratio (RR) for the risk of PCa was 0.98 (95% CI 0.92-1.05, p =0.57) in the multivariable analysis. Moderate white wine consumption increased the risk of PCa with a pooled RR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.10-1.43, p =0.001) in the multi-variable analysis. Meanwhile, moderate red wine consumption had a protective role reducing the risk by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-0.999, p =0.047) in the multivariable analysis that comprised 222,447 subjects. In this meta-analysis, moderate wine consumption did not impact the risk of PCa. Interestingly, regarding the type of wine, moderate consumption of white wine increased the risk of PCa, whereas moderate consumption of red wine had a protective effect. Further analyses are needed to assess the differential molecular effect of white and red wine conferring their impact on PCa risk.
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Risk analysis of computer system designs
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Vallone, A.
1981-01-01
Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.
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Matza, Louis S; Chung, Karen C; Kim, Katherine J; Paulus, Trena M; Davies, Evan W; Stewart, Katie D; McComsey, Grace A; Fordyce, Marshall W
2017-07-01
Despite benefits of antiretroviral therapies (ART), people with HIV infection have increased risk of cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and low bone mineral density. Some ARTs increase risk of these events. The purpose of this study was to examine patients' perspectives of these risks and estimate health state utilities associated with these risks for use in cost-utility models. Qualitative thematic analysis was conducted to examine messages posted to the POZ/AIDSmeds Internet community forums, focusing on bone, kidney, and cardiovascular side effects and risks of HIV/AIDS medications. Then, health state vignettes were drafted based on this qualitative analysis, literature review, and clinician interviews. The health states (representing HIV, plus treatment-related risks) were valued in time trade-off interviews with general population participants in the UK. Qualitative analysis of the Internet forums documented patient concerns about ART risks, as well as treatment decisions made because of these risks. A total of 208 participants completed utility interviews (51.4% female; mean age 44.6 years). The mean utility of the HIV health state (virologically suppressed, treated with ART) was 0.86. Adding a description of risk resulted in statistically significant disutility (i.e., utility decreases): renal risk (disutility = -0.02), bone risk (-0.03), and myocardial infarction risk (-0.05). Patient concerns and treatment decisions were documented via qualitative analysis of Internet forum discussions, and the impact of these concerns was quantified in terms of health state utilities. The resulting disutilities may be useful for differentiating among ARTs in economic modeling of treatment for patients with HIV.
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Reliability and safety, and the risk of construction damage in mining areas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Skrzypczak, Izabela; Kogut, Janusz P.; Kokoszka, Wanda; Oleniacz, Grzegorz
2018-04-01
This article concerns the reliability and safety of building structures in mining areas, with a particular emphasis on the quantitative risk analysis of buildings. The issues of threat assessment and risk estimation, in the design of facilities in mining exploitation areas, are presented here, indicating the difficulties and ambiguities associated with their quantification and quantitative analysis. This article presents the concept of quantitative risk assessment of the impact of mining exploitation, in accordance with ISO 13824 [1]. The risk analysis is illustrated through an example of a construction located within an area affected by mining exploitation.
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[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].
Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel
2004-01-01
To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.
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TNF -308 G/A Polymorphism and Risk of Acne Vulgaris: A Meta-Analysis
Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping
2014-01-01
Background The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Methods We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. Results A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37–5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13–4.86, p = 0.023). Conclusion This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings. PMID:24498378
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Rocks, Sophie A; Schubert, Iljana; Soane, Emma; Black, Edgar; Muckle, Rachel; Petts, Judith; Prpich, George; Pollard, Simon J
2017-09-01
Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.
Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis
2016-08-01
Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.
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Coffee consumption and risk of fractures: a meta-analysis
Liu, Huifang; Yao, Ke; Zhang, Wenjie; Zhou, Jun; Wu, Taixiang
2012-01-01
Introduction Recent studies have indicated higher risk of fractures among coffee drinkers. To quantitatively assess the association between coffee consumption and the risk of fractures, we conducted this meta-analysis. Material and methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for prospective studies reporting the risk of fractures with coffee consumption. Quality of included studies was assessed with the Newcastle Ottawa scale. We conducted a meta-analysis and a cumulative meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) for an increment of one cup of coffee per day, and explored the potential dose-response relationship. Sensitivity analysis was performed where statistical heterogeneity existed. Results We included 10 prospective studies covering 214,059 participants and 9,597 cases. There was overall 3.5% higher fracture risk for an increment of one cup of coffee per day (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052). Pooled RRs were 1.049 (95% CI: 1.022-1.077) for women and 0.910 (95% CI: 0.873-0.949) for men. Among women, RR was 1.055 (95% CI: 0.999-1.114) for younger participants, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.016-1.080) for older ones. Cumulative meta-analysis indicated that risk estimates reached a stabilization level (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052), and it revealed a positive dose-response relationship between coffee consumption and risk of fractures either for men and women combined or women specifically. Conclusions This meta-analysis suggests an overall harm of coffee intake in increasing the risk of fractures, especially for women. But current data are insufficient to reach a convincing conclusion and further research needs to be conducted. PMID:23185185
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Consumption of vegetables and fruit and the risk of inflammatory bowel disease: a meta-analysis.
Li, Fang; Liu, Xiaoqin; Wang, Weijing; Zhang, Dongfeng
2015-06-01
To date, associations between consumption of vegetables and fruit and the risk of inflammatory bowel disease have been a controversial subject. Therefore, we carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate the associations. A comprehensive search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure to identify all relevant studies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from random-effects or fixed-effects models were calculated. Publication bias was estimated using Egger's test and the funnel plot. A total of 14 case-control studies were included in this meta-analysis. On the basis of the highest versus the lowest analysis, consumption of vegetables was associated inversely with the risk of ulcerative colitis (UC) (OR=0.71, 95% CI 0.58-0.88, n=9 studies), but not with Crohn's disease (CD) (OR=0.66, 95% CI 0.40-1.09, n=8 studies). Higher consumption of fruit was associated inversely with the risk of UC (OR=0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96, n=8 studies) and CD (OR=0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.74, n=10 studies). For intake of vegetables and the risk of CD, subgroup analysis showed a significant association for studies carried out in Europe (OR=0.36, 95% CI 0.23-0.57), but not in Asia (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.50-2.03). No significant publication bias was found for the analysis of intake of vegetables and the risk of UC, intake of fruit and the risk of UC, and intake of vegetables and the risk of CD. This meta-analysis indicates that consumption of vegetables and fruit might be associated inversely with the risk of UC and CD, and the results need to be further confirmed.
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Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 5 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Prohibited articles and articles whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis accompanying restricted articles. 319.37-12 Section 319.37... Prohibited articles and articles whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis accompanying...
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-04-09
... Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice... documents entitled, ``Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision- Making... Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making, with Case Study Examples'' and...
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen
2011-01-01
This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.
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Chen, Zhi; Wang, Wei; Liang, Jianqin; Wang, Jinhe; Feng, Shisheng; Zhang, Guangyu
2015-05-08
Previous studies indicated that the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in TLR9 gene might be associated with Tuberculosis (TB) risk. However, the results are inconsistent and inconclusive. 1745 articles from four databases were involved in our study. A meta-analysis on the associations between the seven polymorphisms and TB risk was carried out by comparison using different genetic models. In this systematic review 8 studies from seven English articles were analyzed. Our results showed that rs352139 is significantly associated with TB risk (AA vs. AG, OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.65-0.92, P = 0.004). In the ethnic subgroup analysis, Indonesians with AA genotype had a decreased susceptibility while Mexicans with GG allele had an increased risk. The meta-analysis indicated that rs352139 polymorphism might be associated with decreased TB risk in Indonesians whereas increased risk in Mexicans. Whether the observed association was due to causal effect needs to be further studied.
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A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan
2005-01-01
Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…
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Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.
Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu
2016-01-01
Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.
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Aiyer, Sophie M.; Wilson, Melvin N.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Dishion, Thomas J.
2013-01-01
The ecology of the emergence of psycho-pathology in early childhood is often approached by the analysis of a limited number of contextual risk factors. In the present study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of ecological risk by conducting a canonical correlation analysis of 13 risk factors at child age 2 and seven narrow-band scales of internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors at child age 4, using a sample of 364 geographically and ethnically diverse, disadvantaged primary caregivers, alternative caregivers, and preschool-age children. Participants were recruited from Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children sites and were screened for family risk. Canonical correlation analysis revealed that (1) a first latent combination of family and individual risks of caregivers predicted combinations of child emotional and behavioral problems, and that (2) a second latent combination of contextual and structural risks predicted child somatic complaints. Specifically, (1) the combination of chaotic home, conflict with child, parental depression, and parenting hassles predicted a co-occurrence of internalizing and externalizing behaviors, and (2) the combination of father absence, perceived discrimination, neighborhood danger, and fewer children living in the home predicted child somatic complaints. The research findings are discussed in terms of the development of psychopathology, as well as the potential prevention needs of families in high-risk contexts. PMID:23700232
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2010-03-01
TITLE: INCORPORATING FUNCTIONAL IMAGING INFORMATION TO rpFNA ANALYSIS FOR BREAST CANCER DETECTION IN HIGH-RISK WOMEN PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR...Imaging Information into rpFNA 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Analysis for Breast Cancer Detection in High Risk Women 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-08-1-0192 5c...results of random periareolar fine needle aspiration (rpFNA) in women at high risk for breast cancer. In this second year of work, efforts have been
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Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kumar, K. Vasantha; Horrigan, David J.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H.
1991-01-01
In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.
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Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2015-08-01
Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...
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2012-01-01
Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance. PMID:22233221
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Ajisegiri, Whenayon Simeon; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; MacIntyre, C Raina
2018-03-01
The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas
Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan
2016-01-01
Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202
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Byers, Helen; Wallis, Yvonne; van Veen, Elke M; Lalloo, Fiona; Reay, Kim; Smith, Philip; Wallace, Andrew J; Bowers, Naomi; Newman, William G; Evans, D Gareth
2016-11-01
The sensitivity of testing BRCA1 and BRCA2 remains unresolved as the frequency of deep intronic splicing variants has not been defined in high-risk familial breast/ovarian cancer families. This variant category is reported at significant frequency in other tumour predisposition genes, including NF1 and MSH2. We carried out comprehensive whole gene RNA analysis on 45 high-risk breast/ovary and male breast cancer families with no identified pathogenic variant on exonic sequencing and copy number analysis of BRCA1/2. In addition, we undertook variant screening of a 10-gene high/moderate risk breast/ovarian cancer panel by next-generation sequencing. DNA testing identified the causative variant in 50/56 (89%) breast/ovarian/male breast cancer families with Manchester scores of ≥50 with two variants being confirmed to affect splicing on RNA analysis. RNA sequencing of BRCA1/BRCA2 on 45 individuals from high-risk families identified no deep intronic variants and did not suggest loss of RNA expression as a cause of lost sensitivity. Panel testing in 42 samples identified a known RAD51D variant, a high-risk ATM variant in another breast ovary family and a truncating CHEK2 mutation. Current exonic sequencing and copy number analysis variant detection methods of BRCA1/2 have high sensitivity in high-risk breast/ovarian cancer families. Sequence analysis of RNA does not identify any variants undetected by current analysis of BRCA1/2. However, RNA analysis clarified the pathogenicity of variants of unknown significance detected by current methods. The low diagnostic uplift achieved through sequence analysis of the other known breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility genes indicates that further high-risk genes remain to be identified.
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Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.
Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed
2015-04-01
A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Godos, Justyna; Micek, Agnieszka; Marranzano, Marina; Salomone, Federico; Rio, Daniele Del; Ray, Sumantra
2017-08-28
A meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence from prospective cohort and case-control studies regarding the association between coffee intake and biliary tract cancer (BTC) and liver cancer risk. Eligible studies were identified by searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from the earliest available online indexing year to March 2017. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model and multivariate random-effect meta-regression. A stratified and subgroup analysis by smoking status and hepatitis was performed to identify potential confounding factors. We identified five studies on BTC risk and 13 on liver cancer risk eligible for meta-analysis. A linear dose-response meta-analysis did not show a significant association between coffee consumption and BTC risk. However, there was evidence of inverse correlation between coffee consumption and liver cancer risk. The association was consistent throughout the various potential confounding factors explored including smoking status, hepatitis, etc. Increasing coffee consumption by one cup per day was associated with a 15% reduction in liver cancer risk (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.82 to 0.88). The findings suggest that increased coffee consumption is associated with decreased risk of liver cancer, but not BTC.
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Micek, Agnieszka; Marranzano, Marina; Ray, Sumantra
2017-01-01
Background: A meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence from prospective cohort and case-control studies regarding the association between coffee intake and biliary tract cancer (BTC) and liver cancer risk. Methods: Eligible studies were identified by searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from the earliest available online indexing year to March 2017. The dose–response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model and multivariate random-effect meta-regression. A stratified and subgroup analysis by smoking status and hepatitis was performed to identify potential confounding factors. Results: We identified five studies on BTC risk and 13 on liver cancer risk eligible for meta-analysis. A linear dose–response meta-analysis did not show a significant association between coffee consumption and BTC risk. However, there was evidence of inverse correlation between coffee consumption and liver cancer risk. The association was consistent throughout the various potential confounding factors explored including smoking status, hepatitis, etc. Increasing coffee consumption by one cup per day was associated with a 15% reduction in liver cancer risk (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.82 to 0.88). Conclusions: The findings suggest that increased coffee consumption is associated with decreased risk of liver cancer, but not BTC. PMID:28846640
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Li, Chen; Yichao, Jin; Jiaxin, Lin; Yueting, Zhang; Qin, Lu; Tonghua, Yang
2015-01-01
Reported evidence supports a role for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) in the risk of chronic myelogenous leykemia (CML). However, these reports arrived at non-conclusive and even conflicting results regarding the association between two common MTHFR polymorphisms (C677T and A1298C) and CML risk. Thus, a meta-analysis was carried out to clarify a more precise association between these two polymorphisms and the CML risk by updating the available publications. Pooled odds ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and stratification analysis were performed to estimate the relationship between MTHFR polymorphisms and the risk of CML under different genetic comparison models. Data from the meta-analysis showed no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and CML risk. However, significant associations were found between MTHFR A1298C variants and CML risk under homozygous comparison model (CC vs AA, OR=1.62, 95% CI=1.11-2.36, p=0.01) and dominant comparison model (CC+AC vs AA, OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.17-2.43, p=0.005) in overall population; especially more obvious impacts were noticed for Asian populations in subgroup analysis for homozygous model (CC vs AA, OR=2.00, 95% CI=1.25-3.21, p=0.004) and dominant model (CC+AC vs AA, OR=2.49, 95% CI=1.42-4.36, p=0.001), but this did not apply in Caucasian populations. The results of this meta-analysis suggested no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and CML risk, while an increased CML risk was noticed for 1298C variant carriers, especially in Asian populations but not in Caucasian populations, which suggested ethnicity differences between MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms and risk of CML.
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Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McClung, David
2013-04-01
Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles, the risk analysis showed there are two ranges: ˜ 320; × 460for which risk is lowest. In this case, both the range of and the consequences vary by about a factor of two so the probability of release dominates the risk analysis to yield low risk at the tails of the distribution of with highest risk in the middle (330 - 450) of the expected range (250 - 550).
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Analysis of Contracting Processes, Internal Controls, and Procurement Fraud Schemes
2013-06-01
Government Accountability Office (GAO) has kept DoD Contract Management on its High Risk Series list since 1992 (GAO, 2009). In addition, the GAO also...adopted from the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission ( COSO ) (1992). There are five components: control environment, risk ...2001). 2. Risk Assessment Risk assessment is the identification, analysis, and management of risk faced by an organization. It entails identifying
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2013-06-01
measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004). However, quantitative risk analysis is rarely utilized in DoD acquisition programs because the...quantitative assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost...Kindle version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com 83 Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review
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The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.
Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C
2011-08-01
The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.
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Risk Analysis Methods for Deepwater Port Oil Transfer Systems
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
1976-06-01
This report deals with the risk analysis methodology for oil spills from the oil transfer systems in deepwater ports. Failure mode and effect analysis in combination with fault tree analysis are identified as the methods best suited for the assessmen...
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Zhang, Lin; Wang, Xing-Huan; Zheng, Xin-Min; Liu, Tong-Zu; Zhang, Wei-Bin; Zheng, Hang; Chen, Mi-Feng
2015-01-01
Maternal gestational smoking, diabetes, alcohol drinking, and pre-pregnancy obesity are thought to increase the risk of cryptorchidism in newborn males, but the evidence is inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on the association between maternal gestational smoking, diabetes, alcohol drinking, and pre-pregnancy obesity and the risk of cryptorchidism. Articles were retrieved by searching PubMed and ScienceDirect, and the meta-analysis was conducted using Stata/SE 12.0 software. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the influence of confounding variables. We selected 32 articles, including 12 case-control, five nested case-control, and 15 cohort studies. The meta-analysis showed that maternal smoking (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11-1.23) or diabetes (OR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.00-1.46) during pregnancy were associated with increased risk of cryptorchidism. Overall, the association between maternal alcohol drinking (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.87-1.07), pre-pregnancy body mass index (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.95-1.09) and risk of cryptorchidism were not statistically significant. Additional analysis showed reduced risk (OR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.82-0.96) of cryptorchidism with moderate alcohol drinking during pregnancy. No dose-response relationship was observed for increments in body mass index in the risk of cryptorchidism. Sensitivity analysis revealed an unstable result for the association between maternal diabetes, alcohol drinking and cryptorchidism. Moderate heterogeneity was detected in studies of the effect of maternal alcohol drinking and diabetes. No publication bias was detected. Maternal gestational smoking, but not maternal pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity, was associated with increased cryptorchidism risk in the offspring. Moderate alcohol drinking may reduce the risk of cryptorchidism while gestational diabetes may be a risk factor, but further studies are needed to verify this.
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Depression and risk of fracture and bone loss: an updated meta-analysis of prospective studies.
Wu, Q; Liu, B; Tonmoy, S
2018-03-12
This meta-analysis pooled results from 23 qualifying individual cohort studies and found that depression was significantly associated with an increased risk of fractures and bone loss. The association between depression and risk of fracture remains controversial. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to examine the effect of depression on the risk of osteoporotic fractures and bone loss. We searched databases and reviewed citations in relevant articles for eligible cohort studies. Two investigators independently conducted study selection, appraisal, and data abstraction through the use of a standardized protocol. Random effect models were used for meta-analysis. Cochrane Q and I 2 statistics were used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plots and rank correlation tests were used to evaluate publication bias. Twenty-three studies were included for meta-analysis. In studies that reported hazard ratio (HR) as the outcome (nine studies [n = 309,862]), depression was associated with 26% increase in fracture risk (HR = 1.26, 95% CI, 1.10-1.43, p < 0.001). Studies that reported risk ratio (RR) as the outcome (seven studies [n = 64,975]) suggested that depression was associated with 39% increase in fracture risk (RR = 1.39, 95% CI, 1.19-1.62, p < 0.001). Among studies that reported hip bone mineral density (BMD) as an outcome (eight studies [n = 15,442]), depression was associated with a reduced mean annual bone loss rate of 0.35% (0.18-0.53%, p < 0.001). The increased risk of fracture and bone loss associated with depression was consistent in all meta-analysis having modified inclusion criteria and in different subgroup analyses as well. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis; however, no significant publication bias was detected. Depression is associated with a significant increased risk in fracture and bone loss. Effective prevention may decrease such risk.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-07-08
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Importation of Wall Rocket Leaves from the United... respect to perennial wall rocket leaves grown in the United Kingdom. The analysis evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the continental United States of fresh leaves of perennial wall rocket...
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14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... table C-1. Table C-1 provides sources where an applicant may obtain data acceptable to the FAA. An...
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Paques, Joseph-Jean; Gauthier, François; Perez, Alejandro
2007-01-01
To assess and plan future risk-analysis research projects, 275 documents describing methods and tools for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines or with other sectors such as the military, and the nuclear and aeronautics industries, etc., were collected. These documents were in the format of published books or papers, standards, technical guides and company procedures collected throughout industry. From the collected documents, 112 documents were selected for analysis; 108 methods applied or potentially applicable for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines were analyzed and classified. This paper presents the main quantitative results of the analysis of the methods and tools.
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Public Risk Assessment Program
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mendeck, Gavin
2010-01-01
The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.
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Wijarnpreecha, Karn; Thongprayoon, Charat; Ungprasert, Patompong
2017-02-01
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a worldwide public health concern. Coffee might have a protective effect against NAFLD. However, the results of previous reports are conflicting. Therefore, we carried out this meta-analysis to summarize all available data. This study consisted of two meta-analyses. The first meta-analysis included observational studies comparing the risk of NAFLD in patients who did and did not drink coffee. The second analysis included studies comparing the risk of liver fibrosis between NAFLD patients who did and did not drink coffee. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. Out of 355 articles, five studies fulfilled our eligibility criteria and were included in the analysis. The risk of NAFLD in patients who drank coffee was significantly lower than that in patients who did not pooled RR 0.71 (95% CI, 0.60-0.85). We also found a significantly decreased risk of liver fibrosis among NAFLD patients who drank coffee compared with those who did not, with a pooled RR of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.60-0.82). However, it should be noted that the definition of regular coffee consumption varied between studies, which is the main limitation of this meta-analysis. Our study found a significantly decreased risk of NAFLD among coffee drinkers and significantly decreased risk of liver fibrosis among patients with NAFLD who drank coffee on a regular basis. Whether consumption of coffee could be considered a preventative measure against NAFLD needs further investigations.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques
A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.
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System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Williams, Adam David; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; Cohn, Brian
In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) andmore » system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.« less
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Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jones, E.D.
This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medicalmore » system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.« less
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Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui
2017-06-03
This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the classification tree. 3000 women participated in the study. The high-risk type HPV infection rate was 8.7%, the persistent infection rate was 7.5%. The persistent infection rates for the 2 age groups (ages 18-26 and 27-30) were 6.9% and 8.7%. The persistent infection rates of Xiangfen county were 7.4% and 7.4% respectively, and those of Quwo county were 7.8% and 11.6% respectively; there was no significant difference between each pair of groups. Single risk-factor analysis showed that first-time sex at age under 20, high school/technical secondary school education or above, multiple sexual partners, having more than 2 sexual partners in the past 6 months, oral sex, and colitis are the risk factors of high-risk type HPV infection. Multivariate analysis showed that the number of sexual partners, smoking and oral sex had an effect on HPV infection. The risk of HPV infection from smoking was 5.0-fold higher, and the risk of HPV infection from oral sex was 6.1-fold higher. Having more than 2 sexual partners increase the risk of HPV infection. By the predicated model analysis, the probability of HPV conveyed by oral sex was 14.8%; if the sexual companion number was zero or more than 2 without oral sex, the probability of HPV infection was 12.1%; if there was one sexual partner who smokes without oral sex, the probability of infection was 18.6%; if there was one sexual partner who does not smoke and without oral sex, the probability of infection was 3.6%. The persistent infection rate of asymptomatic women for high-risk type HPV is lower than those women in all ages. High-risk type HPV infection risk factors include the number of sexual partners, oral sex and smoking. Thus, young women may be able to reduce the risk of infection with high-risk type HPV by reducing the number of sexual partners, forming a correct sexual life habit, and avoiding smoking.
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Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization
Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.
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TOOLS FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES: COMPETING OR COMPLEMENTARY PERSPECTIVES?
A third generation of environmental policymaking and risk management will increasingly impose environmental measures, which may give rise to analyzing countervailing risks. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of these risks associated with the decision alternatives at hand will e...
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The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on off-shore oil platforms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Capuano, Paolo; Basco, Anna; Di Ruocco, Angela; Esposito, Simona; Fusco, Giannetta; Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Mercogliano, Paola; Salzano, Ernesto; Solaro, Giuseppe; Teofilo, Gianvito; Scandone, Paolo; Gasparini, Paolo
2017-04-01
ARGO (Analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on off-shore oil platforms) is a 2 years project, funded by the DGS-UNMIG (Directorate General for Safety of Mining and Energy Activities - National Mining Office for Hydrocarbons and Georesources) of Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA (Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk), aims at providing technical support for the analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on offshore oil platforms. In order to achieve this challenging objective, ARGO brings together climate experts, risk management experts, seismologists, geologists, chemical engineers, earth and coastal observation experts. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore oil platforms in the Italian seas, including extreme events related to climate changes. Furthermore the environmental effect of offshore activities has been investigated, including: changes on seismicity and on the evolution of coastal areas close to offshore platforms. Then a probabilistic multi-risk framework has been developed for the analysis of NA-TECH events on offshore installations for hydrocarbon extraction.
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Segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.
Voss, A; Fischer, C; Schroeder, R; Figulla, H R; Goernig, M
2010-01-01
The prognostic value of heart rate variability in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is limited and does not contribute to risk stratification although the dynamics of ventricular repolarization differs considerably between DCM patients and healthy subjects. Neither linear nor nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis could discriminate between patients at high and low risk for sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study was to analyze the suitability of the new developed segmented Poincaré plot analysis (SPPA) to enhance risk stratification in DCM. In contrast to the usual applied Poincaré plot analysis the SPPA retains nonlinear features from investigated beat-to-beat interval time series. Main features of SPPA are the rotation of cloud of points and their succeeded variability depended segmentation. Significant row and column probabilities were calculated from the segments and led to discrimination (up to p<0.005) between low and high risk in DCM patients. For the first time an index from Poincaré plot analysis of heart rate variability was able to contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from DCM.
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Dietary fat intake and ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies
Qiu, Wenlong; Lu, Heng; Qi, Yana; Wang, Xiuwen
2016-01-01
Observational studies assessing the association of dietary fat and risk of ovarian cancer yield discrepant results. Pertinent prospective cohort studies were identified by a PubMed search from inception to December 2015. Sixteen independent case-control and nine cohort studies on dietary fat intake were included, with approximately 900,000 subjects in total. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals were pooled using a random effects model. Heterogeneity, sensitivity analysis and publication bias were assessed; subgroup analysis and analysis stratified by EOC histology were conducted. The reported studies showed a significant increase of ovarian cancer risk with high consumption of total-, saturated-, and trans-fats, while serous ovarian cancer was more susceptible to dietary fat consumption than other pathological subtypes. No evidence of positive association between dietary fat intake and ovarian cancer risk was provided by cohort studies. Menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, body mass index (BMI), and pregnancy times, modified the objective associations. In conclusion, the meta-analysis findings indicate that high consumption of total, saturated and trans-fats increase ovarian cancer risk, and different histological subtypes have different susceptibility to dietary fat. PMID:27119509
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Copping, Andrea E.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.
2011-09-01
Potential environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases.more » During FY 2011, two additional cases were added: a tidal project in the Gulf of Maine using Ocean Renewable Power Company TidGenTM turbines and a wave project planned for the coast of Oregon using Aquamarine Oyster surge devices. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two FY 2011 cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted in early FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. “Risk” has two components: (1) The likelihood, or “probability”, of the occurrence of a given interaction or event, and (2) the potential “consequence” if that interaction or event were to occur. During FY 2011, the ERES screening analysis focused primarily on the second component of risk, “consequence”, with focused probability analysis for interactions where data was sufficient for probability modeling. Consequence analysis provides an assessment of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations. Probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors and requires significant data inputs to drive risk models. During FY 2011, two stressor-receptor interactions were examined for the probability of occurrence. The two interactions (spill probability due to an encounter between a surface vessel and an MHK device; and toxicity from anti-biofouling paints on MHK devices) were seen to present relatively low risks to marine and freshwater receptors of greatest concern in siting and permitting MHK devices. A third probability analysis was scoped and initial steps taken to understand the risk of encounter between marine animals and rotating turbine blades. This analysis will be completed in FY 2012.« less
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Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.
Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R
2004-05-20
This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.
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Duinen, Rianne van; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Peter; Veen, Anne van der
2015-04-01
Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin
2016-04-01
Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.
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Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peduzzi, Pascal
2017-04-01
Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL) and Probable Maximum Losses (PML) in GAR 2013 and GAR 2015. In parallel similar methodologies were developed to highlitght the role of ecosystems for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). New developments may include slow hazards (such as e.g. soil degradation and droughts), natech hazards (by intersecting with georeferenced critical infrastructures) The various global hazard, exposure and risk models can be visualized and download through the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform.
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Vitamin B6 Intake and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.
Jia, Kai; Wang, Rong; Tian, Jingfeng
2017-07-01
We performed this meta-analysis to estimate the association between vitamin B 6 intake and colorectal cancer risk. Prospective cohort studies on vitamin B 6 intake and colorectal cancer risk were identified by searching databases from the period of 1960 to 2016. Results from individual studies were synthetically combined using Stata 13.0 software. A total of 10 prospective cohort studies including 13 data sets were included in our meta-analysis, containing 7,817 cases and 784,550 subjects. The combined relative risks (RR) of colorectal cancer for the highest vitamin B 6 intake compared with the lowest vitamin B 6 intake was 0.88 [95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.77-1.02]. Dose-response meta-analysis based on five eligible studies showed that for each additional 3 and 5 mg of vitamin B 6 intake, the risk would decrease by 11% (RR: 0.89, 95%CI: 0.81-0.98) and 17% (RR: 0.83, 95%CI: 0.71-0.97), respectively. Little evidence of publication bias was found. This meta-analysis provides evidence of a nonsignificant decrease in colorectal cancer risk associated with the high level of vitamin B 6 intake, but the risk in dose-response analysis is significant. However, the latter finding is based on a limited number of studies, which should be interpreted with caution.
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The risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Vijayvargiya, Priya; Anthanont, Pimjai; Erickson, Stephen B
2016-01-01
With rising prevalence of morbid obesity, the number of bariatric surgeries performed each year has been increasing worldwide. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery. A literature search was performed using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception through July 2015. Only studies reporting relative risks, odd ratios or hazard ratios (HRs) to compare risk of kidney stones in patients who underwent bariatric surgery versus no surgery were included. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effect, generic inverse variance method. Four studies (One randomized controlled trial and three cohort studies) with 11,348 patients were included in analysis to assess the risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery. The pooled RR of kidney stones in patients undergoing bariatric surgery was 1.22 (95% CI, 0.63-2.35). The type of bariatric surgery subgroup analysis demonstrated an increased risk of kidney stones in patients following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) with the pooled RR of 1.73 (95% CI, 1.30-2.30) and a decreased risk of kidney stones in patients following restrictive procedures including laparoscopic banding or sleeve gastrectomy with the pooled RR of 0.37 (95% CI, 0.16-0.85). Our meta-analysis demonstrates an association between RYGB and increased risk of kidney stones. Restrictive bariatric surgery, on the other hand, may decrease kidney stone risk. Future study with long-term follow-up data is needed to confirm this potential benefit of restrictive bariatric surgery.
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Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.
Haimes, Yacov Y
2018-01-01
The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Anderson, C.M.; Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.
1995-01-01
The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf lands in the Gulf of Alaska/Yakutat for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. The report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for OCS Lease Sale 158, Gulf of Alaska/Yakutat. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sale.
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Yamamoto, Dorothy J; Woo, Choong-Wan; Wager, Tor D; Regner, Michael F; Tanabe, Jody
2015-04-01
Alterations in frontal and striatal function are hypothesized to underlie risky decision making in drug users, but how these regions interact to affect behavior is incompletely understood. We used mediation analysis to investigate how prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum together influence risk avoidance in abstinent drug users. Thirty-seven abstinent substance-dependent individuals (SDI) and 43 controls underwent fMRI while performing a decision-making task involving risk and reward. Analyses of a priori regions-of-interest tested whether activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and ventral striatum (VST) explained group differences in risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis was conducted to identify brain regions influencing the negative VST-risk avoidance relationship. Right DLPFC (RDLPFC) positively mediated the group-risk avoidance relationship (p < 0.05); RDLPFC activity was higher in SDI and predicted higher risk avoidance across groups, controlling for SDI vs. Conversely, VST activity negatively influenced risk avoidance (p < 0.05); it was higher in SDI, and predicted lower risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis revealed that, across group, RDLPFC and left temporal-parietal junction positively (p ≤ 0.001) while right thalamus and left middle frontal gyrus negatively (p < 0.005) mediated the VST activity-risk avoidance relationship. RDLPFC activity mediated less risky decision making while VST mediated more risky decision making across drug users and controls. These results suggest a dual pathway underlying decision making, which, if imbalanced, may adversely influence choices involving risk. Modeling contributions of multiple brain systems to behavior through mediation analysis could lead to a better understanding of mechanisms of behavior and suggest neuromodulatory treatments for addiction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Yamamoto, Dorothy J.; Woo, Choong-Wan; Wager, Tor D.; Regner, Michael F.; Tanabe, Jody
2015-01-01
Background Alterations in frontal and striatal function are hypothesized to underlie risky decision-making in drug users, but how these regions interact to affect behavior is incompletely understood. We used mediation analysis to investigate how prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum together influence risk avoidance in abstinent drug users. Method Thirty-seven abstinent substance-dependent individuals (SDI) and 43 controls underwent fMRI while performing a decision-making task involving risk and reward. Analyses of a priori regions-of-interest tested whether activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and ventral striatum (VST) explained group differences in risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis was conducted to identify brain regions influencing the negative VST-risk avoidance relationship. Results Right DLPFC (RDLPFC) positively mediated the group-risk avoidance relationship (p < 0.05); RDLPFC activity was higher in SDI and predicted higher risk avoidance across groups, controlling for SDI vs. controls. Conversely, VST activity negatively influenced risk avoidance (p < 0.05); it was higher in SDI, and predicted lower risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis revealed that, across group, RDLPFC and left temporal-parietal junction positively (p ≤ 0.001) while right thalamus and left middle frontal gyrus negatively (p < 0.005) mediated the VST activity-risk avoidance relationship. Conclusion RDLPFC activity mediated less risky decision-making while VST mediated more risky decision-making across drug users and controls. These results suggest a dual pathway underlying decision-making, which, if imbalanced, may adversely influence choices involving risk. Modeling contributions of multiple brain systems to behavior through mediation analysis could lead to a better understanding of mechanisms of behavior and suggest neuromodulatory treatments for addiction. PMID:25736619
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Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong
With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.
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Incorporating concepts of inequality and inequity into health benefits analysis
Levy, Jonathan I; Chemerynski, Susan M; Tuchmann, Jessica L
2006-01-01
Background Although environmental policy decisions are often based in part on both risk assessment information and environmental justice concerns, formalized approaches for addressing inequality or inequity when estimating the health benefits of pollution control have been lacking. Inequality indicators that fulfill basic axioms and agree with relevant definitions and concepts in health benefits analysis and environmental justice analysis can allow for quantitative examination of efficiency-equality tradeoffs in pollution control policies. Methods To develop appropriate inequality indicators for health benefits analysis, we provide relevant definitions from the fields of risk assessment and environmental justice and consider the implications. We evaluate axioms proposed in past studies of inequality indicators and develop additional axioms relevant to this context. We survey the literature on previous applications of inequality indicators and evaluate five candidate indicators in reference to our proposed axioms. We present an illustrative pollution control example to determine whether our selected indicators provide interpretable information. Results and Conclusions We conclude that an inequality indicator for health benefits analysis should not decrease when risk is transferred from a low-risk to high-risk person, and that it should decrease when risk is transferred from a high-risk to low-risk person (Pigou-Dalton transfer principle), and that it should be able to have total inequality divided into its constituent parts (subgroup decomposability). We additionally propose that an ideal indicator should avoid value judgments about the relative importance of transfers at different percentiles of the risk distribution, incorporate health risk with evidence about differential susceptibility, include baseline distributions of risk, use appropriate geographic resolution and scope, and consider multiple competing policy alternatives. Given these criteria, we select the Atkinson index as the single indicator most appropriate for health benefits analysis, with other indicators useful for sensitivity analysis. Our illustrative pollution control example demonstrates how these indices can help a policy maker determine control strategies that are dominated from an efficiency and equality standpoint, those that are dominated for some but not all societal viewpoints on inequality averseness, and those that are on the optimal efficiency-equality frontier, allowing for more informed pollution control policies. PMID:16569243
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The impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of developing prostate cancer
Ferro, Matteo; Foerster, Beat; Abufaraj, Mohammad; Briganti, Alberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Shariat, Shahrokh F
2018-01-01
Objective To investigate the impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). We focused on the differential effect of moderate consumption of red versus white wine. Design This study was a meta-analysis that includes data from case–control and cohort studies. Materials and methods A systematic search of Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed on December 1, 2017. Studies were deemed eligible if they assessed the risk of PCa due to red, white, or any wine using multivariable logistic regression analysis. We performed a formal meta-analysis for the risk of PCa according to moderate wine and wine type consumption (white or red). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochrane’s Q test and I2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger’s regression test. Results A total of 930 abstracts and titles were initially identified. After removal of duplicates, reviews, and conference abstracts, 83 full-text original articles were screened. Seventeen studies (611,169 subjects) were included for final evaluation and fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the case of moderate wine consumption: the pooled risk ratio (RR) for the risk of PCa was 0.98 (95% CI 0.92–1.05, p=0.57) in the multivariable analysis. Moderate white wine consumption increased the risk of PCa with a pooled RR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.10–1.43, p=0.001) in the multi-variable analysis. Meanwhile, moderate red wine consumption had a protective role reducing the risk by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78–0.999, p=0.047) in the multivariable analysis that comprised 222,447 subjects. Conclusions In this meta-analysis, moderate wine consumption did not impact the risk of PCa. Interestingly, regarding the type of wine, moderate consumption of white wine increased the risk of PCa, whereas moderate consumption of red wine had a protective effect. Further analyses are needed to assess the differential molecular effect of white and red wine conferring their impact on PCa risk. PMID:29713200
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CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES
Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711
The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi... -
Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.
2007-01-01
Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.
2010-01-01
The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…
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Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget
2014-06-01
This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.
Hua, Xiaoli; Yu, Lili; You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu
2016-01-01
Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68-0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50-0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58-0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71-1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger's test (p = 0.26). This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted.
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Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis
You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu
2016-01-01
Background Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. Methods We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Results Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50–0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58–0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71–1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger’s test (p = 0.26). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted. PMID:26960146
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2014-01-01
Background Physical activity has been inversely associated with risk of several cancers. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the association between physical activity and risk of esophageal cancer (esophageal adenocarcinoma [EAC] and/or esophageal squamous cell carcinoma [ESCC]). Methods We conducted a comprehensive search of bibliographic databases and conference proceedings from inception through February 2013 for observational studies that examined associations between recreational and/or occupational physical activity and esophageal cancer risk. Summary adjusted odds ratio (OR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using the random-effects model. Results The analysis included 9 studies (4 cohort, 5 case–control) reporting 1,871 cases of esophageal cancer among 1,381,844 patients. Meta-analysis demonstrated that the risk of esophageal cancer was 29% lower among the most physically active compared to the least physically active subjects (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89), with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 47%). On histology-specific analysis, physical activity was associated with a 32% decreased risk of EAC (4 studies, 503 cases of EAC; OR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.55-0.85) with minimal heterogeneity (I2 = 0%). There were only 3 studies reporting the association between physical activity and risk of ESCC with conflicting results, and the meta-analysis demonstrated a null association (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.21-5.64). The results were consistent across study design, geographic location and study quality, with a non-significant trend towards a dose–response relationship. Conclusions Meta-analysis of published observational studies indicates that physical activity may be associated with reduced risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Lifestyle interventions focusing on increasing physical activity may decrease the global burden of EAC. PMID:24886123
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-12-22
... To Support Specific Success Criteria in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models--Surry and Peach... Specific Success Criteria in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models--Surry and Peach Bottom, Draft..., ``Confirmatory Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis to Support Specific Success Criteria in the Standardized Plant Analysis...
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Haghighi, Mona; Johnson, Suzanne Bennett; Qian, Xiaoning; Lynch, Kristian F; Vehik, Kendra; Huang, Shuai
2016-08-26
Regression models are extensively used in many epidemiological studies to understand the linkage between specific outcomes of interest and their risk factors. However, regression models in general examine the average effects of the risk factors and ignore subgroups with different risk profiles. As a result, interventions are often geared towards the average member of the population, without consideration of the special health needs of different subgroups within the population. This paper demonstrates the value of using rule-based analysis methods that can identify subgroups with heterogeneous risk profiles in a population without imposing assumptions on the subgroups or method. The rules define the risk pattern of subsets of individuals by not only considering the interactions between the risk factors but also their ranges. We compared the rule-based analysis results with the results from a logistic regression model in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. Both methods detected a similar suite of risk factors, but the rule-based analysis was superior at detecting multiple interactions between the risk factors that characterize the subgroups. A further investigation of the particular characteristics of each subgroup may detect the special health needs of the subgroup and lead to tailored interventions.
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RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Carson, Susan D.; Hunter, Regina L.; Link, Madison D.
RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user about the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database containsmore » both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.« less
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The association between dietary zinc intake and risk of pancreatic cancer: a meta-analysis.
Li, Li; Gai, Xuesong
2017-06-30
Previous reports have suggested a potential association on dietary zinc intake with the risk of pancreatic cancer. Since the associations between different studies were controversial, we therefore conducted a meta-analysis to reassess the relationship between dietary zinc intake and pancreatic cancer risk. A comprehensive search from the databases of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Medline was performed until January 31, 2017. Relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) derived by using random effect model was used. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were conducted. Our meta-analysis was based on seven studies involving 1659 cases, including two prospective cohort studies and five case-control studies. The total RR of pancreatic cancer risk for the highest versus the lowest categories of dietary zinc intake was 0.798 (0.621-0.984), with its significant heterogeneity among studies ( I 2 =58.2%, P =0.026). The average Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) score was 7.29, suggesting a high quality. There was no publication bias in the meta-analysis about dietary zinc intake on the risk of pancreatic cancer. Subgroup analyses showed that dietary zinc intake could reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer in case-control studies and among American populations. In conclusion, we found that highest category of dietary zinc intake can significantly reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer, especially among American populations. © 2017 The Author(s).
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Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies.
Lee, Aeyoung; Myung, Seung Kwon; Cho, Jung Jin; Jung, Yu Jin; Yoon, Jong Lull; Kim, Mee Young
2017-07-01
This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24-1.64; I² = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.
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Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies
2017-01-01
This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24–1.64; I2 = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. PMID:28581264
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Hiremath, Swapnil; Akbari, Ayub; Wells, George A; Chow, Benjamin J W
2018-04-23
Contrast-induced acute kidney injury is a prominent complication following cardiac catheterization, though the risk has progressively decreased in recent times with appropriate risk stratification and use of safer contrast agents. Despite data supporting further lowering of risk with the iso-osmolar agent, iodixanol, uptake has lagged, perhaps due to increased upfront cost of this agent. We undertook an economic analysis to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a strategy utilizing iodixanol compared to using a low-osmolar contrast agent. We created a Markov model to evaluate the two strategies, and included a differential relative risk of contrast-induced acute kidney injury, based on a systematic review of the literature. Downstream clinical events, including need for dialysis and mortality, were modeled using data from existing published literature. A third-party payer perspective was utilized for the analysis and presentation of the primary economic analysis. The strategy of using iodixanol dominated in both the low-risk and high-risk base case analyses. However, the difference was quite small in the low-risk scenario (lifetime cost: C$678,034 vs. C$678,059 and life expectancy: 19.80 vs. 19.72 years). The difference was more marked (life expectancy 15.65 vs. 14.15 years and cost C$680,989 vs. C$682,023) in the high-risk case analysis. This was robust across most of the variables tested in sensitivity analyses. The use of iodixanol, compared with low-osmolar contrast agents, for cardiac catheterization, results in a small benefit clinical outcomes, and in a savings in direct healthcare costs. Overall, our analysis supports the use of iodixanol for cardiac catheterization, especially in patients at high risk of acute kidney injury.
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Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.
2004-01-01
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.
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Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin
2017-03-01
To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely monitored by nurses to prevent falling during hospitalisations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meloy, Anthony F.
2006-09-01
A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such, an ETA is considered to be a valuable quantitative decision support tool.
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Mean-deviation analysis in the theory of choice.
Grechuk, Bogdan; Molyboha, Anton; Zabarankin, Michael
2012-08-01
Mean-deviation analysis, along with the existing theories of coherent risk measures and dual utility, is examined in the context of the theory of choice under uncertainty, which studies rational preference relations for random outcomes based on different sets of axioms such as transitivity, monotonicity, continuity, etc. An axiomatic foundation of the theory of coherent risk measures is obtained as a relaxation of the axioms of the dual utility theory, and a further relaxation of the axioms are shown to lead to the mean-deviation analysis. Paradoxes arising from the sets of axioms corresponding to these theories and their possible resolutions are discussed, and application of the mean-deviation analysis to optimal risk sharing and portfolio selection in the context of rational choice is considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Stingray Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis: WEC Risk Registers
Ken Rhinefrank
2016-07-25
Analysis method to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the Stingray WEC system. This analysis is incorporated early in the development cycle such that the mitigation of the identified failure modes can be achieved cost effectively and efficiently. The FMECA can begin once there is enough detail to functions and failure modes of a given system, and its interfaces with other systems. The FMECA occurs coincidently with the design process and is an iterative process which allows for design changes to overcome deficiencies in the analysis.Risk Registers for major subsystems completed according to the methodology described in "Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Risk Reduction Program Plan.pdf" document below, in compliance with the DOE Risk Management Framework developed by NREL.
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Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin
2011-08-30
Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The development of a 3D risk analysis method.
I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung
2008-05-01
Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.
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Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.
Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth
2012-07-01
This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Newman, Lauri K.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Duncan, Matthew G.; Hejduk, Matthew D.
2014-01-01
Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.
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Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.
The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less
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IF ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IS THE ANSWER, WHAT IS THE QUESTION?
Ecological risk assessment has become a commonly used tool in policy analysis, but its use is controversial. Opinions are diverse; they range from enthusiastic support to caustic dismissal. Much of the controversy with using risk assessment in ecological policy analysis revolves ...
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Site Investigation/Analysis and Risk Characterization (Final) Prepared for Honeywell International Inc. Prepared by CDR Environmental Specialists, Inc. August 2010 Region ID: 04 DocID: 10746263, DocDate: 08-01-2010
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NEW APPROACHES IN RISK ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSORS TO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
We explore the application of novel techniques for improving and integrating risk analysis of environmental stressors to human and ecological systems. Environmental protection decisions are guided by risk assessments serving as tools to develop regulatory policy and other relate...
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Kim, Su Kang; Kang, Sang Wook; Chung, Joo-Ho; Park, Hae Jeong; Cho, Kyu Bong; Park, Min-Su
2015-01-01
The association between polymorphisms of glutathione-related enzyme (GST) genes and the risk of schizophrenia has been investigated in many published studies. However, their results were inconclusive. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to explore the association between the GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 polymorphisms and the risk of schizophrenia. Twelve case-control studies were included in this meta-analysis. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were used to investigate the strength of the association. Our meta-analysis results revealed that GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 polymorphisms were not related to risk of schizophrenia (p > 0.05 in each model). Further analyses based on ethnicity, GSTM polymorphism showed weak association with schizophrenia in East Asian population (OR = 1.314, 95% CI = 1.025–1.684, p = 0.031). In conclusion, our meta-analysis indicated the GSTM1 polymorphism may be the only genetic risk factor for schizophrenia in East Asian population. However, more meta-analysis with a larger sample size were needed to provide more precise evidence. PMID:26295386
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The concept of antifragility and its implications for the practice of risk analysis.
Aven, Terje
2015-03-01
Nassim Taleb's antifragile concept has been shown considerable interest in the media and on the Internet recently. For Taleb, the antifragile concept is a blueprint for living in a black swan world (where surprising extreme events may occur), the key being to love variation and uncertainty to some degree, and thus also errors. The antonym of "fragile" is not robustness or resilience, but "please mishandle" or "please handle carelessly," using an example from Taleb when referring to sending a package full of glasses by post. In this article, we perform a detailed analysis of this concept, having a special focus on how the antifragile concept relates to common ideas and principles of risk management. The article argues that Taleb's antifragile concept adds an important contribution to the current practice of risk analysis by its focus on the dynamic aspects of risk and performance, and the necessity of some variation, uncertainties, and risk to achieve improvements and high performance at later stages. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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The application of seismic risk-benefit analysis to land use planning in Taipei City.
Hung, Hung-Chih; Chen, Liang-Chun
2007-09-01
In the developing countries of Asia local authorities rarely use risk analysis instruments as a decision-making support mechanism during planning and development procedures. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology to enable planners to undertake such analyses. We illustrate a case study of seismic risk-benefit analysis for the city of Taipei, Taiwan, using available land use maps and surveys as well as a new tool developed by the National Science Council in Taiwan--the HAZ-Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system. We use three hypothetical earthquakes to estimate casualties and total and annualised direct economic losses, and to show their spatial distribution. We also characterise the distribution of vulnerability over the study area using cluster analysis. A risk-benefit ratio is calculated to express the levels of seismic risk attached to alternative land use plans. This paper suggests ways to perform earthquake risk evaluations and the authors intend to assist city planners to evaluate the appropriateness of their planning decisions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan
2018-06-01
Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.
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Birnbrauer, Kristina; Frohlich, Dennis Owen; Treise, Debbie
2017-09-01
West Nile Virus (WNV) has been reported as one of the worst epidemics in US history. This study sought to understand how WNV news stories were framed and how risk information was portrayed from its 1999 arrival in the US through the year 2012. The authors conducted a quantitative content analysis of online news articles obtained through Google News ( N = 428). The results of this analysis were compared to the CDC's ArboNET surveillance system. The following story frames were identified in this study: action, conflict, consequence, new evidence, reassurance and uncertainty, with the action frame appearing most frequently. Risk was communicated quantitatively without context in the majority of articles, and only in 2006, the year with the third-highest reported deaths, was risk reported with statistical accuracy. The results from the analysis indicated that at-risk communities were potentially under-informed as accurate risks were not communicated. This study offers evidence about how disease outbreaks are covered in relation to actual disease surveillance data.
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Tang, Zhenyu; Li, Min; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hou, Wenshang
2016-01-01
Objective To clarify and quantify the potential association between intake of flavonoids and risk of stroke. Design Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Data source Studies published before January 2016 identified through electronic searches using PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with relative risks and 95% CIs for stroke according to intake of flavonoids (assessed as dietary intake). Results The meta-analysis yielded 11 prospective cohort studies involving 356 627 participants and more than 5154 stroke cases. The pooled estimate of the multivariate relative risk of stroke for the highest compared with the lowest dietary flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.97; p=0.006). Dose-response analysis indicated that the summary relative risk of stroke for an increase of 100 mg flavonoids consumed per day was 0.91 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.08) without heterogeneity among studies (I2=0%). Stratifying by follow-up duration, the relative risk of stroke for flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.99) in studies with more than 10 years of follow-up. Conclusions Results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may moderately lower the risk of stroke. PMID:27279473
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Dose-Dependent Associations between Wine Drinking and Breast Cancer Risk - Meta-Analysis Findings.
Chen, Jia-Yan; Zhu, Hong-Cheng; Guo, Qing; Shu, Zheng; Bao, Xu-Hui; Sun, Feng; Qin, Qin; Yang, Xi; Zhang, Chi; Cheng, Hong-Yan; Sun, Xin-Chen
2016-01-01
To investigate any potential association between wine and breast cancer risk. We quantitatively assessed associations by conducting a meta-analysis based on evidence from observational studies. In May 2014, we performed electronic searches in PubMed, EmBase and the Cochrane Library to identify studies examining the effect of wine drinking on breast cancer incidence. The relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) were used to measure any such association. The analysis was further stratified by confounding factors that could influence the results. A total of twenty-six studies (eight case-control and eighteen cohort studies) involving 21,149 cases were included in our meta-analysis. Our study demonstrated that wine drinking was associated with breast cancer risk. A 36% increase in breast cancer risk was observed across overall studies based on the highest versus lowest model, with a combined RR of 1.0059 (95%CI 0.97-1.05) in dose-response analysis. However, 5 g/d ethanol from wine seemed to have protective value from our non-linear model. Our findings indicate that wine drinking is associated with breast cancer risk in a dose-dependent manner. High consumption of wine contributes to breast cancer risk with protection exerted by low doses. Further investigations are needed for clarification.
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Liu, Chang-Fa; Li, Bing; Wang, Yi-Ting; Liu, Yuan; Cai, Heng-Jiang; Wei, Hai-Feng; Wu, Jia-Wen; Li, Jin
2017-10-06
Heavy metals do not degrade and can remain in the environment for a long time. In this study, we analyzed the effects of Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, Hg, and As, on environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological hazard, and source identification of elements in sediments using data collected from samples taken from Shuangtai tidal wetland. The comprehensive pollution indices were used to assess environmental quality; fuzzy similarity analysis and geoaccumulation index were used to analyze pollution accumulation; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and clustering analysis were used to analyze pollution source; environmental risk index and ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The results showed that the environmental quality was either clean or almost clean. Pollutant enrichment analysis showed that the four sub-regions had similar pollution-causing metals to the background values of the soil element of the Liao River Plain, which were ranked according to their similarity. Source identification showed that all the elements were correlated. Ecological hazard analysis showed that the environmental risk index in the study area was less than zero, posing a low ecological risk. Ecological risk of the six elements was as follows: As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.
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Milá, Lorely; Valdés, Rodolfo; Tamayo, Andrés; Padilla, Sigifredo; Ferro, Williams
2012-03-01
CB.Hep-1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) is used for a recombinant Hepatitis B vaccine manufacturing, which is included in a worldwide vaccination program against Hepatitis B disease. The use of this mAb as immunoligand has been addressed into one of the most efficient steps of active pharmaceutical ingredient purification process. Regarding this, Quality Risk Management (QRM) provides an excellent framework for the risk management use in pharmaceutical manufacturing and quality decision-making applications. Consequently, this study sought applying a prospective risk analysis methodology Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) as QRM tool for analyzing different CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing technologies. As main conclusions FMEA was successfully used to assess risks associated with potential problems in CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing processes. The severity and occurrence of risks analysis evidenced that the percentage of very high severe risks ranged 31.0-38.7% of all risks and the huge majority of risks have a very low occurrence level (61.9-83.3%) in all assessed technologies. Finally, additive Risk Priority Number, was descending ordered as follow: transgenic plants (2636), ascites (2577), transgenic animals (2046) and hollow fiber bioreactors (1654), which also corroborated that in vitro technology, should be the technology of choice for CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing in terms of risks and mAb molecule quality. Copyright © 2011 The International Alliance for Biological Standardization. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Wu, Lei; Sun, Dali
2017-03-22
Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have evaluated the association of dairy consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the findings were inconsistent. No quantitative analysis has specifically assessed the effect of yogurt intake on the incident risk of CVD. We searched the PubMed and the Embase databases from inception to 10 January 2017. A generic inverse-variance method was used to pool the fully-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with a random-effects model. A generalized least squares trend estimation model was used to calculate the specific slopes in the dose-response analysis. The present systematic review and meta-analysis identified nine prospective cohort articles involving a total of 291,236 participants. Compared with the lowest category, highest category of yogurt consumption was not significantly related with the incident risk of CVD, and the RR (95% CI) was 1.01 (0.95, 1.08) with an evidence of significant heterogeneity (I² = 52%). However, intake of ≥200 g/day yogurt was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD in the subgroup analysis. There was a trend that a higher level of yogurt consumption was associated with a lower incident risk of CVD in the dose-response analysis. A daily dose of ≥200 g yogurt intake might be associated with a lower incident risk of CVD. Further cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are still demanded to establish and confirm the observed association in populations with different characteristics.
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Yue, Hu; Shan, Liu; Bin, Lv
2018-02-19
Despite extensive research on the criteria for the assessment of gastric cancer risk using the Operative Link on Gastritis Assessment (OLGA) and Operative Link on Gastritis/Intestinal-Metaplasia Assessment (OLGIM) systems, no comprehensive overview or systematic summary on their use is currently available. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of the OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in evaluating gastric cancer risk. We searched various databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Medline, and Cochrane's library, for articles published before March 2017 on the association between OLGA/OLGIM stages and risk of gastric cancer. Statistical analysis was performed using RevMan 5.30 and Stata 14.0, with the odds ratio, risk ratio, and 95% confidence interval as the effect measures. A meta-analysis of six case-control studies and two cohort studies, comprising 2700 subjects, was performed. The meta-analysis of prospective case-control studies demonstrated a significant association between the OLGA/OLGIM stages III/IV and gastric cancer. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) score reflected heterogeneity in the case-control studies on OLGA. Subgroup analysis of high-quality (NOS score ≥ 5) studies showed an association between OLGA stage III/IV and increased risk of gastric cancer; the association was also high in the remaining study with low NOS score. The association between higher stages of gastritis defined by OLGA and risk of gastric cancer was significant. This correlation implies that close and frequent monitoring of such high-risk patients is necessary to facilitate timely diagnosis of gastric cancer.
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Niu, Yu-Ming; Deng, Mo-Hong; Chen, Wen; Zeng, Xian-Tao; Luo, Jie
2015-01-01
Conflicting results on the association between MTHFR polymorphism and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk were reported. We therefore performed a meta-analysis to derive a more precise relationship between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Three online databases of PubMed, Embase, and CNKI were researched on the associations between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Twenty-three published case-control studies involving 4,955 cases and 8,805 controls were collected. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the relationship between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Sensitivity analysis, cumulative analyses, and publication bias were conducted to validate the strength of the results. Overall, no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk was found in this meta-analysis (T versus C: OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.92-1.18; TT versus CC: OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.90-1.46; CT versus CC: OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.85-1.17; CT + TT versus CC: OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.87-1.18; TT versus CC + CT: OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.98-1.26). In the subgroup analysis by HWE, ethnicity, study design, cancer location, and negative significant associations were detected in almost all genetic models, except for few significant risks that were found in thyroid cancer. This meta-analysis demonstrates that MTHFR C677T polymorphism may not be a risk factor for the developing of HNC.
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The RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk: a meta-analysis based on 12 case-control studies.
Du, Shu-Li; Geng, Ting-Ting; Feng, Tian; Chen, Cui-Ping; Jin, Tian-Bo; Chen, Chao
2014-01-01
The association between the RTEL1 rs6010620 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and glioma risk has been extensively studied. However, the results remain inconclusive. To further examine this association, we performed a meta-analysis. A computerized search of the PubMed and Embase databases for publications regarding the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma cancer risk was performed. Genotype data were analyzed in a meta-analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to assess the association. Sensitivity analyses, tests of heterogeneity, cumulative meta-analyses, and assessments of bias were performed in our meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis confirmed that risk with allele A is lower than with allele G for glioma. The A allele of rs6010620 in RTEL1 decreased the risk of developing glioma in the 12 case-control studies for all genetic models: the allele model (OR=0.752, 95%CI: 0.715-0.792), the dominant model (OR=0.729, 95%CI: 0.685-0.776), the recessive model (OR=0.647, 95%CI: 0.569-0.734), the homozygote comparison (OR=0.528, 95%CI: 0.456-0.612), and the heterozygote comparison (OR=0.761, 95%CI: 0.713-0.812). In all genetic models, the association between the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk was significant. This meta-analysis suggests that the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism may be a risk factor for glioma. Further functional studies evaluating this polymorphism and glioma risk are warranted.
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Wu, Lei; Sun, Dali
2017-01-01
Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have evaluated the association of dairy consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the findings were inconsistent. No quantitative analysis has specifically assessed the effect of yogurt intake on the incident risk of CVD. We searched the PubMed and the Embase databases from inception to 10 January 2017. A generic inverse-variance method was used to pool the fully-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with a random-effects model. A generalized least squares trend estimation model was used to calculate the specific slopes in the dose-response analysis. The present systematic review and meta-analysis identified nine prospective cohort articles involving a total of 291,236 participants. Compared with the lowest category, highest category of yogurt consumption was not significantly related with the incident risk of CVD, and the RR (95% CI) was 1.01 (0.95, 1.08) with an evidence of significant heterogeneity (I2 = 52%). However, intake of ≥200 g/day yogurt was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD in the subgroup analysis. There was a trend that a higher level of yogurt consumption was associated with a lower incident risk of CVD in the dose-response analysis. A daily dose of ≥200 g yogurt intake might be associated with a lower incident risk of CVD. Further cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are still demanded to establish and confirm the observed association in populations with different characteristics. PMID:28327514
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.
1994-08-01
This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis (OSRA) conducted for the proposed lower Cook Inlet Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lease Sale 149. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative oil-spill risks associated with oil and gas production from the leasing alternatives proposed for the lease sale. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) will consider the analysis in the environmental impact statement (EIS) prepared for the lease sale. The analysis for proposed OCS Lease Sale 149 was conducted in three parts corresponding to different aspects of the overall problem. The first part dealt with the probability of oil-spillmore » occurrence. The second dealt with trajectories of oil spills from potential spill sites to various environmental resources or land segments. The third part combined the results of the first two parts to give estimates of the overall oil-spill risk if there is oil production as a result of the lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area (see vol. 2).« less
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Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya
2018-03-01
This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.
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Toward a Responsibility-Catering Prioritarian Ethical Theory of Risk.
Wikman-Svahn, Per; Lindblom, Lars
2018-03-05
Standard tools used in societal risk management such as probabilistic risk analysis or cost-benefit analysis typically define risks in terms of only probabilities and consequences and assume a utilitarian approach to ethics that aims to maximize expected utility. The philosopher Carl F. Cranor has argued against this view by devising a list of plausible aspects of the acceptability of risks that points towards a non-consequentialist ethical theory of societal risk management. This paper revisits Cranor's list to argue that the alternative ethical theory responsibility-catering prioritarianism can accommodate the aspects identified by Cranor and that the elements in the list can be used to inform the details of how to view risks within this theory. An approach towards operationalizing the theory is proposed based on a prioritarian social welfare function that operates on responsibility-adjusted utilities. A responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical approach towards managing risks is a promising alternative to standard tools such as cost-benefit analysis.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen
2011-01-01
This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.
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Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh
2016-01-01
In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180
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Using risk analysis to reveal opportunities for the management of unplanned ignitions in wilderness
Kevin Barnett; Carol Miller; Tyron J. Venn
2016-01-01
A goal of fire management in wilderness is to allow fire to play its natural ecological role without intervention. Unfortunately, most unplanned ignitions in wilderness are suppressed, in part because of the risk they might pose to values outside of the wilderness. We capitalize on recent advances in fire risk analysis to demonstrate a risk-based approach for revealing...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DELİCE, Yavuz
2015-04-01
Highways, Located in the city and intercity locations are generally prone to many kind of natural disaster risks. Natural hazards and disasters that may occur firstly from highway project making to construction and operation stages and later during the implementation of highway maintenance and repair stages have to be taken into consideration. And assessment of risks that may occur against adverse situations is very important in terms of project design, construction, operation maintenance and repair costs. Making hazard and natural disaster risk analysis is largely depending on the definition of the likelihood of the probable hazards on the highways. However, assets at risk , and the impacts of the events must be examined and to be rated in their own. With the realization of these activities, intended improvements against natural hazards and disasters will be made with the utilization of Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) method and their effects will be analyzed with further works. FMEA, is a useful method to identify the failure mode and effects depending on the type of failure rate effects priorities and finding the most optimum economic and effective solution. Although relevant measures being taken for the identified risks by this analysis method , it may also provide some information for some public institutions about the nature of these risks when required. Thus, the necessary measures will have been taken in advance in the city and intercity highways. Many hazards and natural disasters are taken into account in risk assessments. The most important of these dangers can be listed as follows; • Natural disasters 1. Meteorological based natural disasters (floods, severe storms, tropical storms, winter storms, avalanches, etc.). 2. Geological based natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, subsidence, sinkholes, etc) • Human originated disasters 1. Transport accidents (traffic accidents), originating from the road surface defects (icing, signaling caused malfunctions and risks), fire or explosion etc.- In this study, with FMEA method, risk analysis of the urban and intercity motorways against natural disasters and hazards have been performed and found solutions were brought against these risks. Keywords: Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA), Pareto Analyses (PA), Highways, Risk Management.
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Risk Perception as the Quantitative Parameter of Ethics and Responsibility in Disaster Study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro
2014-05-01
Intensity of impacts of natural disasters is increasing with climate and ecological changes spread. Frequency of disasters is increasing, and recurrence of catastrophes characterizing by essential spatial heterogeneity. Distribution of losses is fundamentally non-linear and reflects complex interrelation of natural, social and environmental factor in the changing world on multi scale range. We faced with new types of risks, which require a comprehensive security concept. Modern understanding of complex security, and complex risk management require analysis of all natural and social phenomena, involvement of all available data, constructing of advanced analytical tools, and transformation of our perception of risk and security issues. Traditional deterministic models used for risk analysis are difficult applicable for analysis of social issues, as well as for analysis of multi scale multi-physics phenomena quantification. Also parametric methods are not absolutely effective because the system analyzed is essentially non-ergodic. The stochastic models of risk analysis are applicable for quantitative analysis of human behavior and risk perception. In framework of risk analysis models the risk perception issues were described. Risk is presented as the superposition of distribution (f(x,y)) and damage functions (p(x,y)): P →δΣ x,yf(x,y)p(x,y). As it was shown risk perception essentially influents to the damage function. Basing on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty on cognitive bias and handling of risk, modification of damage function is proposed: p(x,y|α(t)). Modified damage function includes an awareness function α(t), which is the system of risk perception function (rp) and function of education and log-term experience (c) as: α(t) → (c - rp). Education function c(t) describes the trend of education and experience. Risk perception function rp reflects security concept of human behavior, is the basis for prediction of socio-economic and socio-ecological processes. Also there is important positive feedback of risk perception function to distribution function. Risk perception is essentially depends of short-term recent events impact in multi agent media. This is managed function. The generalized view of awareness function is proposed: α(t) = δΣ ic - rpi. Using this form separate parameters has been calculated. For example, risk perception function is about 15-55% of awareness function depends of education, age and social status of people. Also it was estimated that fraction of awareness function in damage function, and so in function of risk is about 15-20%. It means that no less than 8-12% of direct losses depend of short-term responsible behavior of 'information agents': social activity of experts, scientists, correct discussions on ethical issues in geo-sciences and media. Other 6-9% of losses are connected with level of public and professional education. This area is also should be field of responsibility of geo-scientists.
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Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky
Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less
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Regulatory Science in Professional Education.
Akiyama, Hiroshi
2017-01-01
In the field of pharmaceutical sciences, the subject of regulatory science (RS) includes pharmaceuticals, food, and living environments. For pharmaceuticals, considering the balance between efficacy and safety is a point required for public acceptance, and in that balance, more importance is given to efficacy in curing disease. For food, however, safety is the most important consideration for public acceptance because food should be essentially free of risk. To ensure food safety, first, any hazard that is an agent in food or condition of food with the potential to cause adverse health effects should be identified and characterized. Then the risk that it will affect public health is scientifically analyzed. This process is called risk assessment. Second, risk management should be conducted to reduce a risk that has the potential to affect public health found in a risk assessment. Furthermore, risk communication, which is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk and risk management among risk assessors, risk managers, consumers, and other interested parties, should be conducted. Food safety is ensured based on risk analysis consisting of the three components of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. RS in the field of food safety supports risk analysis, such as scientific research and development of test methods to evaluate food quality, efficacy, and safety. RS is also applied in the field of living environments because the safety of environmental chemical substances is ensured based on risk analysis, similar to that conducted for food.
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49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-10-01
... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems, and... upper bound, as estimated with a sensitivity analysis, and the risk value selected must be demonstrated... interconnected subsystems/components? The risk assessment of each safety-critical system (product) must account...
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49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria
Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR
2014-10-01
... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems, and... upper bound, as estimated with a sensitivity analysis, and the risk value selected must be demonstrated... interconnected subsystems/components? The risk assessment of each safety-critical system (product) must account...
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR MUNICIPAL WASTE COMBUSTORS
Quantitative health risk assessments have been performed for a number of proposed municipal waste combustor (MWC) facilities over the past several years. his article presents the results of a comparative analysis of a total of 21 risk assessments, focusing on seven of the most co...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens
2016-04-01
It is widely acknowledged that drought management should move from a crisis to a risk-based approach. A risk-based approach to managing water resources requires a sound drought risk analysis, quantifying the probability and impacts of water shortage due to droughts. Impacts of droughts are for example crop yield losses, hydropower production losses, and water shortage for municipal and industrial use. Many studies analyse the balance between supply and demand, but there is little experience in translating this into economic metrics that can be used in a decision-making process on investments to reduce drought risk. We will present a drought risk analysis method for the Netherlands, with a focus on the underlying economic method to quantify the welfare effects of water shortage for different water users. Both the risk-based approach as well as the economic valuation of water shortage for various water users was explored in a study for the Dutch Government. First, an historic analysis of the effects of droughts on revenues and prices in agriculture as well as on shipping and nature was carried out. Second, a drought risk analysis method was developed that combines drought hazard and drought impact analysis in a probabilistic way for various sectors. This consists of a stepwise approach, from water availability through water shortage to economic impact, for a range of drought events with a certain return period. Finally, a local case study was conducted to test the applicability of the drought risk analysis method. Through the study, experience was gained into integrating hydrological and economic analyses, which is a prerequisite for drought risk analysis. Results indicate that the risk analysis method is promising and applicable for various sectors. However, it was also found that quantification of economic impacts from droughts is time-consuming, because location- and sector-specific data is needed, which is not always readily available. Furthermore, for some sectors hydrological data was lacking to make a reliable estimate of drought return periods. By 2021, the Netherlands Government aims to agree on the water supply service levels, which should describe water availability and quality that can be delivered with a certain return period. The Netherlands' Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, representatives of the regional water boards and Rijkswaterstaat (operating the main water system) as well as several consultants and research institutes are important stakeholders for further development of the method, evaluation of cases and the development of a quantitative risk-informed decision-making tool.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tompkins, F. G.
1984-01-01
Guidance is presented to NASA Computer Security Officials for determining the acceptability or unacceptability of ADP security risks based on the technical, operational and economic feasibility of potential safeguards. The risk management process is reviewed as a specialized application of the systems approach to problem solving and information systems analysis and design. Reporting the results of the risk reduction analysis to management is considered. Report formats for the risk reduction study are provided.
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A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.
Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco
2018-01-01
One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality control laboratory: It is laborious, time consuming, semi-quantitative, and requires a radioisotope. Along with dot-blot hybridization, two alternatives techniques were evaluated: threshold analysis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management tools were applied to compare the techniques, taking into account the uncertainties, the possibility of circumstances or future events, and their effects upon method performance. By illustrating the application of these tools with DNA methods, we provide an example of how they can be used to support a scientific and practical approach to decision making and can assess and manage method performance risk using such tools. This paper discusses, considering the principles of quality risk management, an additional approach to the development and selection of analytical quality control methods using the risk analysis tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the method procedural steps with higher impact on method reliability (called critical control points). Our model concluded that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the larger number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and threshold analysis. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction is shown to be the better alternative analytical methodology in residual cellular DNA analysis. © PDA, Inc. 2018.
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Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd
2017-01-01
Objectives Single-visit root canal treatment has some advantages over conventional multivisit treatment, but might increase the risk of complications. We systematically evaluated the risk of complications after single-visit or multiple-visit root canal treatment using meta-analysis and trial-sequential analysis. Data Controlled trials comparing single-visit versus multiple-visit root canal treatment of permanent teeth were included. Trials needed to assess the risk of long-term complications (pain, infection, new/persisting/increasing periapical lesions ≥1 year after treatment), short-term pain or flare-up (acute exacerbation of initiation or continuation of root canal treatment). Sources Electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central) were screened, random-effects meta-analyses performed and trial-sequential analysis used to control for risk of random errors. Evidence was graded according to GRADE. Study selection 29 trials (4341 patients) were included, all but 6 showing high risk of bias. Based on 10 trials (1257 teeth), risk of complications was not significantly different in single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (risk ratio (RR) 1.00 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.35); weak evidence). Based on 20 studies (3008 teeth), risk of pain did not significantly differ between treatments (RR 0.99 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.30); moderate evidence). Risk of flare-up was recorded by 8 studies (1110 teeth) and was significantly higher after single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (RR 2.13 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.89); very weak evidence). Trial-sequential analysis revealed that firm evidence for benefit, harm or futility was not reached for any of the outcomes. Conclusions There is insufficient evidence to rule out whether important differences between both strategies exist. Clinical significance Dentists can provide root canal treatment in 1 or multiple visits. Given the possibly increased risk of flare-ups, multiple-visit treatment might be preferred for certain teeth (eg, those with periapical lesions). PMID:28148534
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Lifestyle and accidents among young drivers.
Gregersen, N P; Berg, H Y
1994-06-01
This study covers the lifestyle component of the problems related to young drivers' accident risk. The purpose of the study is to measure the relationship between lifestyle and accident risk, and to identify specific high-risk and low-risk groups. Lifestyle is measured through a questionnaire, where 20-year-olds describe themselves and how often they deal with a large number of different activities, like sports, music, movies, reading, cars and driving, political engagement, etc. They also report their involvement in traffic accidents. With a principal component analysis followed by a cluster analysis, lifestyle profiles are defined. These profiles are finally correlated to accidents, which makes it possible to define high-risk and low-risk groups. The cluster analysis defined 15 clusters including four high-risk groups with an average overrisk of 150% and two low-risk groups with an average underrisk of 75%. The results are discussed from two perspectives. The first is the importance of theoretical understanding of the contribution of lifestyle factors to young drivers' high accident risk. The second is how the findings could be used in practical road safety measures, like education, campaigns, etc.
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Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul
2015-07-01
Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.
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Risk of large oil spills: a statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deepwater Horizon.
Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter; Michaux, Edouard
2012-12-04
The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that followed the explosion of the exploration platform Deepwater Horizon on 20 April 2010 was the largest accidental oil spill so far. In this paper we evaluate the risk of such very severe oil spills based on global historical data from our Energy-Related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) and investigate if an accident of this size could have been "expected". We also compare the risk of oil spills from such accidents in exploration and production to accidental spills from other activities in the oil chain (tanker ship transport, pipelines, storage/refinery) and analyze the two components of risk, frequency and severity (quantity of oil spilled) separately. This detailed analysis reveals the differences in the structure of the risk between different spill sources, differences in trends over time and it allows in particular assessing the risk of very severe events such as the Deepwater Horizon spill. Such top down risk assessment can serve as an important input to decision making by complementing bottom up engineering risk assessment and can be combined with impact assessment in environmental risk analysis.
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Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark
2011-01-01
This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Tarafdar, Abhrajyoti; Sinha, Alok
2017-10-01
A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils and sediments was conducted using the probabilistic approach from a national perspective. Published monitoring data of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in soils and sediments at different study points across India were collected and converted to their corresponding BaP equivalent concentrations. These BaP equivalent concentrations were used to evaluate comprehensive cancer risk for two different age groups. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The analysis denotes 90% cancer risk value of 1.770E-5 for children and 3.156E-5 for adults at heavily polluted site soils. Overall carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of India were mostly in acceptance limits. However, the food ingestion exposure route for sediments leads them to a highly risked zone. The 90% risk values from sediments are 7.863E-05 for children and 3.999E-04 for adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals exposure duration and relative skin adherence factor for soil as the most influential parameter of the assessment, followed by BaP equivalent concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For sediments, biota to sediment accumulation factor of fish in terms of BaP is most sensitive on the total outcome, followed by BaP equivalent and exposure duration. Individual exposure route analysis showed dermal contact for soils and food ingestion for sediments as the main exposure pathway. Some specific locations such as surrounding areas of Bhavnagar, Raniganj, Sunderban, Raipur, and Delhi demand potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. The current study is probably the first attempt to provide information on the carcinogenic risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and sediments across India.
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Culvenor, Adam G; Ruhdorfer, Anja; Juhl, Carsten; Eckstein, Felix; Øiestad, Britt Elin
2017-05-01
To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis on the association between knee extensor strength and the risk of structural, symptomatic, or functional deterioration in individuals with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis (KOA). We systematically identified and methodologically appraised all longitudinal studies (≥1-year followup) reporting an association between knee extensor strength and structural (tibiofemoral, patellofemoral), symptomatic (self-reported, knee replacement), or functional (subjective, objective) decline in individuals with or at risk of radiographic or symptomatic KOA. Results were pooled for each of the above associations using meta-analysis, or if necessary, summarized according to a best-evidence synthesis. Fifteen studies were included, evaluating >8,000 participants (51% female), with a followup time between 1.5 and 8 years. Meta-analysis revealed that lower knee extensor strength was associated with an increased risk of symptomatic (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index [WOMAC] pain: odds ratio [OR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.10-1.67) and functional decline (WOMAC function: OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.00-1.89, and chair-stand task: OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.03-1.04), but not increased risk of radiographic tibiofemoral joint space narrowing (JSN) (OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.84-1.56). No trend in risk was observed for KOA status (present versus absent). Best-evidence synthesis showed inconclusive evidence for lower knee extensor strength being associated with increased risk of patellofemoral deterioration. Meta-analysis showed that lower knee extensor strength is associated with an increased risk of symptomatic and functional deterioration, but not tibiofemoral JSN. The risk of patellofemoral deterioration in the presence of knee extensor strength deficits is inconclusive. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tarafdar, Abhrajyoti; Sinha, Alok
2017-10-01
A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils and sediments was conducted using the probabilistic approach from a national perspective. Published monitoring data of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in soils and sediments at different study points across India were collected and converted to their corresponding BaP equivalent concentrations. These BaP equivalent concentrations were used to evaluate comprehensive cancer risk for two different age groups. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The analysis denotes 90% cancer risk value of 1.770E-5 for children and 3.156E-5 for adults at heavily polluted site soils. Overall carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of India were mostly in acceptance limits. However, the food ingestion exposure route for sediments leads them to a highly risked zone. The 90% risk values from sediments are 7.863E-05 for children and 3.999E-04 for adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals exposure duration and relative skin adherence factor for soil as the most influential parameter of the assessment, followed by BaP equivalent concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For sediments, biota to sediment accumulation factor of fish in terms of BaP is most sensitive on the total outcome, followed by BaP equivalent and exposure duration. Individual exposure route analysis showed dermal contact for soils and food ingestion for sediments as the main exposure pathway. Some specific locations such as surrounding areas of Bhavnagar, Raniganj, Sunderban, Raipur, and Delhi demand potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. The current study is probably the first attempt to provide information on the carcinogenic risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and sediments across India.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eliseeva, O. A.; Luk'yanova, A. S.; Tarasov, A. E.
2010-12-01
The gas industry in Russia will develop under conditions of the persistence of existing risks and emergence of the new ones caused by the world financial crisis, increased uncertainty in estimating world prices for natural gas, together with disturbed balance between interests of gas producers and consumers, and threat of loss of the competitiveness of Russian natural gas on foreign markets. In this context, in choosing a strategy of the development of the gas industry and its production-and-financial program, it is necessary to carry out a risk analysis of optimum decisions. Specific features of carrying out a risk analysis and results of the risk analysis of strategic decisions that would provide enhanced steadiness and the effectiveness of the development of the gas industry under conditions of the uncertainty of both external and internal factors are presented.
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Built environment analysis for road traffic hotspot locations in Moshi, Tanzania.
Waldon, Meredith; Ibingira, Treasure Joelson; de Andrade, Luciano; Mmbaga, Blandina T; Vissoci, João Ricardo N; Mvungi, Mark; Staton, Catherine A
2018-02-08
Road traffic injuries (RTIs) cause significant morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Investigation of high risk areas for RTIs is needed to guide improvements. This study provides built environmental analysis of road traffic crash hotspots within Moshi, Tanzania. Spatial analysis of police data identified 36 hotspots. Qualitative comparative analysis revealed 40% of crash sites were on local roads without night lighting and increased motorcycle density. Paved narrow roads represented 26% of hotspots and 13% were unpaved roads with uneven roadsides. Roadside unevenness was more predominate in low risk [n = 19, (90.5%)] than high risk sites [n = 7 (46.7%)]. Both low [n = 6 (28.6%)] and high risk [n = 1 (6.7%)] sites had minimal signage. All sites had informal pedestrian pathways. Little variability between risk sites suggests hazardous conditions are widespread. Findings suggest improvement in municipal infrastructure, signage and enforcement is needed to reduce RTI burden.
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The impact of young drivers' lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area.
Chliaoutakis, J E; Darviri, C; Demakakos, P T
1999-11-01
Young drivers (18-24) both in Greece and elsewhere appear to have high rates of road traffic accidents. Many factors contribute to the creation of these high road traffic accidents rates. It has been suggested that lifestyle is an important one. The main objective of this study is to find out and clarify the (potential) relationship between young drivers' lifestyle and the road traffic accident risk they face. Moreover, to examine if all the youngsters have the same elevated risk on the road or not. The sample consisted of 241 young Greek drivers of both sexes. The statistical analysis included factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. Through the principal component analysis a ten factor scale was created which included the basic lifestyle traits of young Greek drivers. The logistic regression analysis showed that the young drivers whose dominant lifestyle trait is alcohol consumption or drive without destination have high accident risk, while these whose dominant lifestyle trait is culture, face low accident risk. Furthermore, young drivers who are religious in one way or another seem to have low accident risk. Finally, some preliminary observations on how health promotion should be put into practice are discussed.
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Xu, Wan-Jiang; Wen, Li-Ping; Jiang, Xiang-Xin; Ye, Li-Yin; Meng, Fan-Hua; Guan, Sheng; Qian, Ying-Jun; Wei, Jing-Feng
2017-02-01
Many studies have evaluated the correlation between N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) slow acetylation genotype and bladder cancer risk. However, the results are inconsistent and remain to be confirmed in each ethnic group. To assess the effects of NAT2 acetylation status on the risk of bladder cancer in the Chinese population, a meta-analysis was performed. Studies were identified using PubMed and Chinese databases through February 2016. The associations were assessed with pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). This meta-analysis included 10 studies with 896 bladder cancer cases and 1188 controls. In the overall analysis, NAT2 slow acetylation phenotype was significantly associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer in the Chinese population (OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.11 - 2.53). In the subgroup analyses by geographic areas and sources of controls, significant risk was found in Mainland China (OR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.04 - 3.20) and hospitalbased studies (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.27 - 2.38), but not in Taiwan China. This meta-analysis suggested that the NAT2 slow acetylation genotype is associated with an increased bladder cancer risk in Chinese individuals.
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Use of benzodiazepine and risk of cancer: A meta-analysis of observational studies.
Kim, Hong-Bae; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Park, Yon Chul; Park, Byoungjin
2017-02-01
Several observational epidemiological studies have reported inconsistent results on the association between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer. We investigated the association by using a meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the bibliographies of relevant articles to locate additional publications in January 2016. Three evaluators independently reviewed and selected eligible studies based on predetermined selection criteria. Of 796 articles meeting our initial criteria, a total of 22 observational epidemiological studies with 18 case-control studies and 4 cohort studies were included in the final analysis. Benzodiazepine use was significantly associated with an increased risk of cancer (odds ratio [OR] or relative risk [RR] 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.21) in a random-effects meta-analysis of all studies. Subgroup meta-analyses by various factors such as study design, type of case-control study, study region, and methodological quality of study showed consistent findings. Also, a significant dose-response relationship was observed between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer (p for trend <0.01). The current meta-analysis of observational epidemiological studies suggests that benzodiazepine use is associated with an increased risk of cancer. © 2016 UICC.
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Body mass index and risk of BPH: a meta-analysis.
Wang, S; Mao, Q; Lin, Y; Wu, J; Wang, X; Zheng, X; Xie, L
2012-09-01
Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results relating obesity to BPH. A meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies was conducted to pool the risk estimates of the association between obesity and BPH. Eligible studies were retrieved by both computer searches and review of references. We analyzed abstracted data with random effects models to obtain the summary risk estimates. Dose-response meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting categorical risk estimates for a series of exposure levels. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria of the meta-analysis. Positive association with body mass index (BMI) was observed in BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) combined group (odds ratio=1.27, 95% confidence intervals 1.05-1.53). In subgroup analysis, BMI exhibited a positive dose-response relationship with BPH/LUTS in population-based case-control studies and a marginal positive association was observed between risk of BPH and increased BMI. However, no association between BPH/LUTS and BMI was observed in other subgroups stratified by study design, geographical region or primary outcome. The overall current literatures suggested that BMI was associated with increased risk of BPH. Further efforts should be made to confirm these findings and clarify the underlying biological mechanisms.
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Li, Baini; Ma, Jun; Hu, Xuenan; Liu, Haijun; Wu, Jiajiao; Chen, Hongjun; Zhang, Runjie
2010-08-01
Exotic fruit flies (Ceratitis spp.) are often serious agricultural pests. Here, we used, pathway analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of introduction of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), Ceratitis cosyra (Walker), and Ceratitis rosa Karsch, into southern China with fruit consignments and incoming travelers. Historical data, expert opinions, relevant literature, and archives were used to set appropriate parameters in the pathway analysis. Based on the ongoing quarantine/ inspection strategies of China, as well as the interception records, we estimated the annual number of each fruit fly species entering Guangdong province undetected with commercially imported fruit, and the associated risk. We also estimated the gross number of pests arriving at Guangdong ports with incoming travelers and the associated risk. Sensitivity analysis also was performed to test the impact of parameter changes and to assess how the risk could be reduced. Results showed that the risk of introduction of the three fruit fly species into southern China with fruit consignments, which are mostly transported by ship, exists but is relatively low. In contrast, the risk of introduction with incoming travelers is high and hence deserves intensive attention. Sensitivity analysis indicated that either ensuring all shipments meet current phytosanitary requirements or increasing the proportion of fruit imports sampled for inspection could substantially reduce the risk associated with commercial imports. Sensitivity analysis also provided justification for banning importation of fresh fruit by international travelers. Thus, inspection and quarantine in conjunction with intensive detection were important mitigation measures to reduce the risk of Ceratitis spp. introduced into China.
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Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.
Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin
2016-08-13
Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.
2012-09-01
Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah
2017-06-01
This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.
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A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thomas, Victoria Katherine
In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.
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Wang, Jiayang; Yu, Wenyuan; Zhou, Ye; Yang, Yong; Li, Chenglong; Liu, Nan; Hou, Xiaotong; Wang, Longfei
2017-06-01
This study aimed to examine the risk factors for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI)-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) according to the AKI definition from the Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 (VARC-2). A meta-analysis. A total of 661 patients with post-TAVI AKI according to the VARC-2 definition and 2,012 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Patients undergoing TAVI were included in this meta-analysis. Multiple electronic databases were searched using predefined criteria. The diagnosis of AKI was based on the VARC-2 classification. The authors found that preoperative New York Heart Association class IV (odds ratio [OR], 7.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.81-15.85), previous chronic renal disease (CKD) (OR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.96-4.03), and requirement for transfusion (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.59-2.59) were associated significantly with an increased risk for post-TAVI AKI. Furthermore, previous peripheral vascular disease (PVD), hypertension, atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and stroke were also risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI. Additionally, transfemoral access significantly correlated with a reduced risk for post-TAVI AKI (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.33-0.57). The potential confounders, including Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score, the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, aortic valve area, mean pressure gradient, left ventricular ejection fraction, age, body mass index, contrast volume, and valve type, had no impact on the association between the risk factors and post-TAVI AKI. Subgroup analysis of the eligible studies presenting multivariate logistic regression analysis on the independent risk factors for post-TAVI AKI revealed that previous CKD, previous PVD, and transapical access were independent risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI. The current meta-analysis suggested that previous CKD, previous PVD, and transapical access may be independent risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land
2006-01-01
We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.
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Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method
Fu, Xiao; Gu, Chong-Shi; Su, Huai-Zhi; Qin, Xiang-Nan
2018-01-01
Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level. PMID:29710824
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martino, P.
1980-12-01
A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.
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Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong
2017-06-01
For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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An Analysis of Alternative School Effectiveness on Student Achievement
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Moger, Scott Douglas
2010-01-01
This study is a comparative analysis investigating student achievement, attendance rates, grade point average and credit earned by at-risk students attending an alternative high school of choice, at-risk students attending a traditional high school and at-risk students attending a Disciplinary Alternative Education Placement Campus within the same…
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Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming
2011-10-01
The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.
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Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.
Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R
2016-12-01
The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
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The effects of napping on the risk of hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Thongprayoon, Charat; Srivali, Narat; Vijayvargiya, Priya; Andersen, Carl A; Kittanamongkolchai, Wonngarm; Sathick, Insara J Jaffer; Caples, Sean M; Erickson, Stephen B
2016-11-01
The risk of hypertension in adults who regularly take a nap is controversial. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the associations between napping and hypertension. A literature search was performed using MEDLINE, EMbase and The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception through October, 2015. Studies that reported relative risks, odd ratios or hazard ratios comparing the risk of hypertension in individuals who regularly take nap were included. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effect, generic inverse variance method. Nine observational studies with 112,267 individuals were included in the analysis to assess the risk of hypertension in nappers. The pooled RR of hypertension in nappers was 1.13 with 95% CI (0.98 to 1.30). When meta-analysis was limited only to studies assessing the risk of hypertension in daytime nappers, the pooled RR of hypertension was 1.19 with 95% CI (1.06 to 1.35). The data on association between nighttime napping in individuals who work night shift and hypertension were limited, only one observational study reported reduced risk of hypertension in nighttime nappers with odds ratio of 0.79 with 95% CI (0.63 to 1.00). Our meta-analysis demonstrates a significant association between daytime napping and hypertension. Future study is needed to assess the potential benefits of HTN screening for daytime nappers. © 2016 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
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A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia
2016-10-12
Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by "a posteriori" methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a "Healthy pattern" and a "Western pattern". The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08-1.65). In addition, the "Carbohydrate pattern", which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35-2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western ( p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate ( p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings.
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Liu, Huan; Wang, Xing-Chun; Hu, Guang-Hui; Guo, Zhui-Feng; Lai, Peng; Xu, Liang; Huang, Tian-Bao; Xu, Yun-Fei
2015-11-01
This meta-analysis was conducted to assess the association between fruit and vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk. Eligible studies published up to August 2014 were retrieved both through a computer search of PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane library and through a manual review of references. The summary relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the highest versus the lowest intakes of fruits and vegetables were calculated with random-effects models. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also evaluated. Potential sources of heterogeneity were detected with metaregression. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were also performed. A total of 27 studies (12 cohort and 15 case-control studies) were included in this meta-analysis. The summary relative risks for the highest versus lowest were 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72-0.96) for vegetable intake and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89) for fruit intake. The dose-response analysis showed that the risk of bladder cancer decreased by 8% (relative risk=0.92; 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) and 9% (relative risk=0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-0.99) for every 200 g/day increment in vegetable and fruit consumption, respectively. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the results. Our findings suggest that intake of vegetables and fruits may significantly reduce the risk of bladder cancer. Further well-designed prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings.
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A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia
2016-01-01
Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by “a posteriori” methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a “Healthy pattern” and a “Western pattern”. The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08–1.65). In addition, the “Carbohydrate pattern”, which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35–2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western (p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate (p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings. PMID:27754328
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Grimm, Sabine Elisabeth; Strong, Mark; Brennan, Alan; Wailoo, Allan J
2017-12-01
Recent changes to the regulatory landscape of pharmaceuticals may sometimes require reimbursement authorities to issue guidance on technologies that have a less mature evidence base. Decision makers need to be aware of risks associated with such health technology assessment (HTA) decisions and the potential to manage this risk through managed entry agreements (MEAs). This work develops methods for quantifying risk associated with specific MEAs and for clearly communicating this to decision makers. We develop the 'HTA risk analysis chart', in which we present the payer strategy and uncertainty burden (P-SUB) as a measure of overall risk. The P-SUB consists of the payer uncertainty burden (PUB), the risk stemming from decision uncertainty as to which is the truly optimal technology from the relevant set of technologies, and the payer strategy burden (PSB), the additional risk of approving a technology that is not expected to be optimal. We demonstrate the approach using three recent technology appraisals from the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), each of which considered a price-based MEA. The HTA risk analysis chart was calculated using results from standard probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In all three HTAs, the new interventions were associated with substantial risk as measured by the P-SUB. For one of these technologies, the P-SUB was reduced to zero with the proposed price reduction, making this intervention cost effective with near complete certainty. For the other two, the risk reduced substantially with a much reduced PSB and a slightly increased PUB. The HTA risk analysis chart shows the risk that the healthcare payer incurs under unresolved decision uncertainty and when considering recommending a technology that is not expected to be optimal given current evidence. This allows the simultaneous consideration of financial and data-collection MEA schemes in an easily understood format. The use of HTA risk analysis charts will help to ensure that MEAs are considered within a standard utility-maximising health economic decision-making framework.
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Huang, Xuan-Zhang; Chen, You; Wu, Jian; Zhang, Xi; Wu, Cong-Cong; Zhang, Chao-Ying; Sun, Shuang-Shuang; Chen, Wen-Jun
2017-01-17
The association between non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and gastric cancer (GC) risk is controversial. The aim of this study is to evaluate the chemopreventive effect of NSAIDs for GC. A literature search was performed for relevant studies using the PubMed and Embase database (up to March 2016). Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used as the effect measures. The dose-response analysis and subgroup analysis were also performed. Twenty-four studies were included. Our results indicated that NSAIDs could reduce GC risk (any NSAIDs: RR=0.78, 96%CI=0.72-0.85; aspirin: RR=0.70, 95%CI=0.62-0.80; non-aspirin NSAIDs: RR=0.86, 95%CI=0.80-0.94), especially for non-cardia GC risk. Moreover, the dose-response analysis indicated the risk of GC decreased by 11% and 5% for 2 years increment of any NSAIDs and aspirin use, respectively. There were nonlinear relationships between the frequency of any NSAIDs use and aspirin use and GC risk (P for non-linearity<0.01), with a threshold effect of 5 times/week. A monotonically decreasing trend was observed only for the frequency of less than 5 times/week. Our results indicate that NSAIDs is inversely associated with GC risk, especially for non-cardia GC risk. NSAIDs use may become a feasible approach to prevent GC.
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The effect of prediabetes on hepatocellular carcinoma risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Xu, Wei-Guo; Qian, Yun-Feng; Wu, Jun
2017-04-01
Some studies suggested an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in subjects with prediabetes, whereas other studies have reported negative results. Therefore, we did this meta-analysis to assess the role of prediabetes on HCC risk. We searched studies from PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. The strength of association between prediabetes and HCC risk was assessed by calculating hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI. A total of 8 cohort studies and 1 case-control study with 1384594 individuals were included. Patients with prediabetes showed an increased HCC risk (HR=1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.30; P<0.00001). Subgroup analyses were performed according to race and gender. The results showed that both Asians with prediabetes (HR=1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; P<0.00001) and Caucasians with prediabetes (HR=2.12; 95% CI, 1.36-3.31; P=0.001 were significantly associated with increased risk of HCC, respectively. In the subgroup analysis by gender, both male patients with prediabetes (HR=1.49; 95% CI, 1.03-2.15; P=0.03) and female patients with prediabetes (HR=1.24; 95% CI, 1.01-1.52; P=0.04) showed increased risk of HCC, respectively. In conclusion, this meta-analysis demonstrated that prediabetes might be a risk factor of HCC.
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Pineles, Beth L.; Park, Edward; Samet, Jonathan M.
2014-01-01
We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to characterize the relationship between smoking and miscarriage. We searched the PubMed database (1956–August 31, 2011) using keywords and conducted manual reference searches of included articles and reports of the US Surgeon General. The full text of 1,706 articles was reviewed, and 98 articles that examined the association between active or passive smoking and miscarriage were included in the meta-analysis. Data were abstracted by 2 reviewers. Any active smoking was associated with increased risk of miscarriage (summary relative risk ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.30; n = 50 studies), and this risk was greater when the smoking exposure was specifically defined as during the pregnancy in which miscarriage risk was measured (summary relative risk ratio = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.44; n = 25 studies). The risk of miscarriage increased with the amount smoked (1% increase in relative risk per cigarette smoked per day). Secondhand smoke exposure during pregnancy increased the risk of miscarriage by 11% (95% CI: 0.95, 1.31; n = 17 studies). Biases in study publication, design, and analysis did not significantly affect the results. This finding strengthens the evidence that women should not smoke while pregnant, and all women of reproductive age should be warned that smoking increases the risk of miscarriage. PMID:24518810
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Claire Sansford; Alan Inman; Joan Webber
2010-01-01
Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) is an internationally recognized, structured process of determining whether plant pests and pathogens that are absent from a country or area could enter, establish, and cause an economic or environmental risk that is deemed unacceptable. PRA is also used to help identify phytosanitary measures to reduce risks to an acceptable level. United...
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Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.
Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael
2016-01-01
Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.
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Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin
2016-04-01
Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.
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Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick
2016-07-01
Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.
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Sainsbury, A W; Yu-Mei, R; Ågren, E; Vaughan-Higgins, R J; Mcgill, I S; Molenaar, F; Peniche, G; Foster, J
2017-10-01
There are risks from disease in undertaking wild animal reintroduction programmes. Methods of disease risk analysis have been advocated to assess and mitigate these risks, and post-release health and disease surveillance can be used to assess the effectiveness of the disease risk analysis, but results for a reintroduction programme have not to date been recorded. We carried out a disease risk analysis for the reintroduction of pool frogs (Pelophylax lessonae) to England, using information gained from the literature and from diagnostic testing of Swedish pool frogs and native amphibians. Ranavirus and Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis were considered high-risk disease threats for pool frogs at the destination site. Quarantine was used to manage risks from disease due to these two agents at the reintroduction site: the quarantine barrier surrounded the reintroduced pool frogs. Post-release health surveillance was carried out through regular health examinations of amphibians in the field at the reintroduction site and collection and examination of dead amphibians. No significant health or disease problems were detected, but the detection rate of dead amphibians was very low. Methods to detect a higher proportion of dead reintroduced animals and closely related species are required to better assess the effects of reintroduction on health and disease. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
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Bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy and the risk of prematurity: a meta-analysis.
Flynn, C A; Helwig, A L; Meurer, L N
1999-11-01
We conducted this meta-analysis to determine the magnitude of risk conferred by bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy on preterm delivery. We selected articles from a combination of the results of a MEDLINE search (1966-1996), a manual search of bibliographies, and contact with leading researchers. We included case control and cohort studies evaluating the risk of preterm delivery, low birth weight, preterm premature rupture of membranes, or preterm labor for pregnant women who had bacterial vaginosis and those who did not. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS. Two investigators independently conducted literature searches, applied inclusion criteria, performed data extraction, and critically appraised included studies. Summary estimates of risk were calculated as odds ratios (ORs) using the fixed and random effects models. We included 19 studies in the final analysis. Bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy was associated with a statistically significant increased risk for all outcomes evaluated. In the subanalyses for preterm delivery, bacterial vaginosis remained a significant risk factor. Pooling adjusted ORs yielded a 60% increased risk of preterm delivery given the presence of bacterial vaginosis. Bacterial vaginosis is an important risk factor for prematurity and pregnancy morbidity. Further studies will help clarify the benefits of treating bacterial vaginosis and the potential role of screening during pregnancy.
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Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu
2017-04-01
To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Wyant, Timothy; Slack, James R.
1978-01-01
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrence, likely paths of the spills, and locations in space and time of such objects as recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the proposed lease area. This risk is compared to the existing oilspill risk from existing leases in the area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possible mitigating effects of cleanups.
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Reconceptualising risk: Perceptions of risk in rural and remote maternity service planning.
Barclay, Lesley; Kornelsen, Jude; Longman, Jo; Robin, Sarah; Kruske, Sue; Kildea, Sue; Pilcher, Jennifer; Martin, Tanya; Grzybowski, Stefan; Donoghue, Deborah; Rolfe, Margaret; Morgan, Geoff
2016-07-01
to explore perceptions and examples of risk related to pregnancy and childbirth in rural and remote Australia and how these influence the planning of maternity services. data collection in this qualitative component of a mixed methods study included 88 semi-structured individual and group interviews (n=102), three focus groups (n=22) and one group information session (n=17). Researchers identified two categories of risk for exploration: health services risk (including clinical and corporate risks) and social risk (including cultural, emotional and financial risks). Data were aggregated and thematically analysed to identify perceptions and examples of risk related to each category. fieldwork was conducted in four jurisdictions at nine sites in rural (n=3) and remote (n=6) Australia. 117 health service employees and 24 consumers. examples and perceptions relating to each category of risk were identified from the data. Most medical practitioners and health service managers perceived clinical risks related to rural birthing services without access to caesarean section. Consumer participants were more likely to emphasise social risks arising from a lack of local birthing services. our analysis demonstrated that the closure of services adds social risk, which exacerbates clinical risk. Analysis also highlighted that perceptions of clinical risk are privileged over social risk in decisions about rural and remote maternity service planning. a comprehensive analysis of risk that identifies how social and other forms of risk contribute to adverse clinical outcomes would benefit rural and remote people and their health services. Formal risk analyses should consider the risks associated with failure to provide birthing services in rural and remote communities as well as the risks of maintaining services. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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[Does fertility treatment increase the risk of breast cancer? Current knowledge and meta-analysis].
Gabriele, V; Benabu, J-C; Ohl, J; Youssef, C Akladios; Mathelin, C
2017-05-01
The objective of this review was to assess the level of risk of breast cancer for women exposed to ovulation-inducing therapy (OIT). The 25 selected studies were extracted from the PUBMED database from January 2000 until March 2016 with the following key-words: "fertility agents", "infertility treatments", "clomiphene citrate", "buserelin", "ovarian stimulation", "assisted reproductive technology" and "breast cancer". Our meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager software, Cochrane Collaboration, 2014. The results were calculated by type of OIT, as well as globally. The analysis of these published epidemiological studies confirms that exposition to OIT is not a breast cancer risk factor, but the results are contradictory. Two studies have shown a significantly increased risk of breast cancer in a population of infertile women, while two others have found a significant decrease of this risk. The twenty others did not show any impact of IOT over this risk. Our meta-analysis of 20 selected studies has not identified a significant association between exposition to OIT and breast cancer risk (relative risk=0,96; IC 95: (0,81-1,14) for cohort studies and odds ratio=0,94; IC 95% (0,81-1,10) for case-control studies). Exposition to OIT is not an identified risk factor for breast cancer. A message reassuring about a possible risk of OIT-related breast cancer should be given to these women. Exposition to OIT is therefore not an indication of increased breast surveillance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
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Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA
Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad
2017-01-01
The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants. PMID:28665325
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Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.
Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad
2017-06-30
The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-03-22
... Staff Guidance on Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic... Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment,'' (Agencywide Documents.../COL-ISG-020 ``Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic Risk...
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Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.
Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj
2017-01-05
Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.
Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin
2017-07-01
Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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An Example of Risk Informed Design
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Banke, Rick; Grant, Warren; Wilson, Paul
2014-01-01
NASA Engineering requested a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to compare the difference in the risk of Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) between different designs of a fluid assembly. They were concerned that the configuration favored by the design team was more susceptible to leakage than a second proposed design, but realized that a quantitative analysis to compare the risks between the two designs might strengthen their argument. The analysis showed that while the second design did help improve the probability of LOC, it did not help from a probability of LOM perspective. This drove the analysis team to propose a minor design change that would drive the probability of LOM down considerably. The analysis also demonstrated that there was another major risk driver that was not immediately obvious from a typical engineering study of the design and was therefore unexpected. None of the proposed alternatives were addressing this risk. This type of trade study demonstrates the importance of performing a PRA in order to completely understand a system's design. It allows managers to use risk as another one of the commodities (e.g., mass, cost, schedule, fault tolerance) that can be traded early in the design of a new system.
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Chen, Zhixiang; Shao, Peng; Sun, Qizhao; Zhao, Dong
2015-03-01
The purpose of the present study was to use a prospectively collected data to evaluate the rate of incidental durotomy (ID) during lumbar surgery and determine the associated risk factors by using univariate and multivariate analysis. We retrospectively reviewed 2184 patients who underwent lumbar surgery from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2011 at a single hospital. Patients with ID (n=97) were compared with the patients without ID (n=2019). The influences of several potential risk factors that might affect the occurrence of ID were assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses. The overall incidence of ID was 4.62%. Univariate analysis demonstrated that older age, diabetes, lumbar central stenosis, posterior approach, revision surgery, prior lumber surgery and minimal invasive surgery are risk factors for ID during lumbar surgery. However, multivariate analysis identified older age, prior lumber surgery, revision surgery, and minimally invasive surgery as independent risk factors. Older age, prior lumber surgery, revision surgery, and minimal invasive surgery were independent risk factors for ID during lumbar surgery. These findings may guide clinicians making future surgical decisions regarding ID and aid in the patient counseling process to alleviate risks and complications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Application of multi-criteria decision-making to risk prioritisation in tidal energy developments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kolios, Athanasios; Read, George; Ioannou, Anastasia
2016-01-01
This paper presents an analytical multi-criterion analysis for the prioritisation of risks for the development of tidal energy projects. After a basic identification of risks throughout the project and relevant stakeholders in the UK, classified through a political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental analysis, relevant questionnaires provided scores to each risk and corresponding weights for each of the different sectors. Employing an extended technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution as well as the weighted sum method based on the data obtained, the risks identified are ranked based on their criticality, drawing attention of the industry in mitigating the ones scoring higher. Both methods were modified to take averages at different stages of the analysis in order to observe the effects on the final risk ranking. A sensitivity analysis of the results was also carried out with regard to the weighting factors given to the perceived expertise of participants, with different results being obtained whether a linear, squared or square root regression is used. Results of the study show that academics and industry have conflicting opinions with regard to the perception of the most critical risks.
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Safety and Performance Analysis of the Non-Radar Oceanic/Remote Airspace In-Trail Procedure
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carreno, Victor A.; Munoz, Cesar A.
2007-01-01
This document presents a safety and performance analysis of the nominal case for the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) in a non-radar oceanic/remote airspace. The analysis estimates the risk of collision between the aircraft performing the ITP and a reference aircraft. The risk of collision is only estimated for the ITP maneuver and it is based on nominal operating conditions. The analysis does not consider human error, communication error conditions, or the normal risk of flight present in current operations. The hazards associated with human error and communication errors are evaluated in an Operational Hazards Analysis presented elsewhere.
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Use of evidential reasoning and AHP to assess regional industrial safety
Chen, Zhichao; Chen, Tao; Qu, Zhuohua; Ji, Xuewei; Zhou, Yi; Zhang, Hui
2018-01-01
China’s fast economic growth contributes to the rapid development of its urbanization process, and also renders a series of industrial accidents, which often cause loss of life, damage to property and environment, thus requiring the associated risk analysis and safety control measures to be implemented in advance. However, incompleteness of historical failure data before the occurrence of accidents makes it difficult to use traditional risk analysis approaches such as probabilistic risk analysis in many cases. This paper aims to develop a new methodology capable of assessing regional industrial safety (RIS) in an uncertain environment. A hierarchical structure for modelling the risks influencing RIS is first constructed. The hybrid of evidential reasoning (ER) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to assess the risks in a complementary way, in which AHP is hired to evaluate the weight of each risk factor and ER is employed to synthesise the safety evaluations of the investigated region(s) against the risk factors from the bottom to the top level in the hierarchy. The successful application of the hybrid approach in a real case analysis of RIS in several major districts of Beijing (capital of China) demonstrates its feasibility as well as provides risk analysts and safety engineers with useful insights on effective solutions to comprehensive risk assessment of RIS in metropolitan cities. The contribution of this paper is made by the findings on the comparison of risk levels of RIS at different regions against various risk factors so that best practices from the good performer(s) can be used to improve the safety of the others. PMID:29795593
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Vascular Disease, ESRD, and Death: Interpreting Competing Risk Analyses
Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J.
2012-01-01
Summary Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989–1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20–2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors. PMID:22859747
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Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.
Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J
2012-10-01
Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.
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Use of evidential reasoning and AHP to assess regional industrial safety.
Chen, Zhichao; Chen, Tao; Qu, Zhuohua; Yang, Zaili; Ji, Xuewei; Zhou, Yi; Zhang, Hui
2018-01-01
China's fast economic growth contributes to the rapid development of its urbanization process, and also renders a series of industrial accidents, which often cause loss of life, damage to property and environment, thus requiring the associated risk analysis and safety control measures to be implemented in advance. However, incompleteness of historical failure data before the occurrence of accidents makes it difficult to use traditional risk analysis approaches such as probabilistic risk analysis in many cases. This paper aims to develop a new methodology capable of assessing regional industrial safety (RIS) in an uncertain environment. A hierarchical structure for modelling the risks influencing RIS is first constructed. The hybrid of evidential reasoning (ER) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to assess the risks in a complementary way, in which AHP is hired to evaluate the weight of each risk factor and ER is employed to synthesise the safety evaluations of the investigated region(s) against the risk factors from the bottom to the top level in the hierarchy. The successful application of the hybrid approach in a real case analysis of RIS in several major districts of Beijing (capital of China) demonstrates its feasibility as well as provides risk analysts and safety engineers with useful insights on effective solutions to comprehensive risk assessment of RIS in metropolitan cities. The contribution of this paper is made by the findings on the comparison of risk levels of RIS at different regions against various risk factors so that best practices from the good performer(s) can be used to improve the safety of the others.
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Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Applied in the Real Estate Investment Risks Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
ML(Zhang Minli), Zhang; Wp(Yang Wenpo), Yang
Real estate investment is a high-risk and high returned of economic activity, the key of real estate analysis is the identification of their types of investment risk and the risk of different types of effective prevention. But, as the financial crisis sweeping the world, the real estate industry also faces enormous risks, how effective and correct evaluation of real estate investment risks becomes the multitudinous scholar concern[1]. In this paper, real estate investment risks were summarized and analyzed, and comparative analysis method is discussed and finally presented fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, not only in theory has the advantages of science, in the application also has the reliability, for real estate investment risk assessment provides an effective means for investors in real estate investing guidance on risk factors and forecasts.
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Wang, Bin; An, Xiaofei; Shi, Xiaohong; Zhang, Jin-An
2017-10-01
Previous studies investigating the risk of suicide in diabetes patients reported controversial findings. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to comprehensively estimate the risk and incidence rate of suicide in diabetic patients. PubMed, EMBASE and PsycINFO were searched for eligible studies. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate the relative risk (RR) and the incidence rate of suicide in diabetes patients. We also calculated the proportion of deaths attributable to suicide among diabetes patients. 54 studies were finally included, including 28 studies on the suicide risk associated with diabetes, 47 studies on the incidence rate of suicide and 45 studies on the proportion of deaths attributable to suicide. Meta-analysis showed that diabetes could significantly increase the risk of suicide (RR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.29-1.89; P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that the RR of suicide associated with type 1 diabetes was 2.25 (95% CI: 1.50-3.38; P < 0.001). The pooled incidence rate of suicide in patients with diabetes was 2.35 per 10 000 person-years (95% CI: 1.51-3.64). The pooled proportions of long-term deaths attributable to suicide in type 1 diabetes patients and type 2 diabetes patients were 7.7% (95% CI: 6.0-9.8) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.6-2.6), respectively. This meta-analysis suggests that diabetes can significantly increase the risk of suicide. Suicide has an obvious contribution to mortality in diabetic patients, especially among type 1 diabetes patients. Effective strategies to decrease suicide risk and improve mental health outcomes in diabetes patients are needed. © 2017 European Society of Endocrinology.
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Ruiz-Goikoetxea, Maite; Cortese, Samuele; Aznarez-Sanado, Maite; Magallón, Sara; Alvarez Zallo, Noelia; Luis, Elkin O; de Castro-Manglano, Pilar; Soutullo, Cesar; Arrondo, Gonzalo
2018-01-01
A systematic review with meta-analyses was performed to: 1) quantify the association between ADHD and risk of unintentional physical injuries in children/adolescents ("risk analysis"); 2) assess the effect of ADHD medications on this risk ("medication analysis"). We searched 114 databases through June 2017. For the risk analysis, studies reporting sex-controlled odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) estimating the association between ADHD and injuries were combined. Pooled ORs (28 studies, 4,055,620 individuals without and 350,938 with ADHD) and HRs (4 studies, 901,891 individuals without and 20,363 with ADHD) were 1.53 (95% CI=1.40,1.67) and 1.39 (95% CI=1.06,1.83), respectively. For the medication analysis, we meta-analysed studies that avoided the confounding-by-indication bias [four studies with a self-controlled methodology and another comparing risk over time and groups (a "difference in differences" methodology)]. The pooled effect size was 0.879 (95% CI=0.838,0.922) (13,254 individuals with ADHD). ADHD is significantly associated with an increased risk of unintentional injuries and ADHD medications have a protective effect, at least in the short term, as indicated by self-controlled studies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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75 FR 55527 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-09-13
..., identified by Docket No. FEMA-B-1136, to Roy E. Wright, Deputy Director, Risk Analysis Division, Federal.... Wright, Deputy Director, Risk Analysis Division, Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration, Federal....S.C. 601- 612, a regulatory flexibility analysis is not required. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory...
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assessment and risk analysis. His research interests include instrumentation, mesoscale-microscale coupling , uncertainty analysis, and risk assessment. Jason is also the U.S. representative on several international
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Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Oti, Samuel; Egondi, Thaddaeus; Kyobutungi, Catherine
2015-01-01
The four common non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for 80% of NCD-related deaths worldwide. The four NCDs share four common risk factors. As most of the existing evidence on the common NCD risk factors is based on analysis of a single factor at a time, there is a need to investigate the co-occurrence of the common NCD risk factors, particularly in an urban slum setting in sub-Saharan Africa. To determine the prevalence of co-occurrence of the four common NCDs risk factors among urban slum dwellers in Nairobi, Kenya. This analysis was based on the data collected as part of a cross-sectional survey to assess linkages among socio-economic status, perceived personal risk, and risk factors for cardiovascular and NCDs in a population of slum dwellers in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2008-2009. A total of 5,190 study subjects were included in the analysis. After selecting relevant variables for common NCD risk factors, we computed the prevalence of all possible combinations of the four common NCD risk factors. The analysis was disaggregated by relevant background variables. The weighted prevalences of unhealthy diet, insufficient physical activity, harmful use of alcohol, and tobacco use were found to be 57.2, 14.4, 10.1, and 12.4%, respectively. Nearly 72% of the study participants had at least one of the four NCD risk factors. About 52% of the study population had any one of the four NCD risk factors. About one-fifth (19.8%) had co-occurrence of NCD risk factors. Close to one in six individuals (17.6%) had two NCD risk factors, while only 2.2% had three or four NCD risk factors. One out of five of people in the urban slum settings of Nairobi had co-occurrence of NCD risk factors. Both comprehensive and differentiated approaches are needed for effective NCD prevention and control in these settings.
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The neural bases underlying social risk perception in purchase decisions.
Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yomogida, Yukihito; Takeuchi, Hikaru; Akimoto, Yoritaka; Shibuya, Satoru; Kawashima, Ryuta
2014-05-01
Social considerations significantly influence daily purchase decisions, and the perception of social risk (i.e., the anticipated disapproval of others) is crucial in dissuading consumers from making purchases. However, the neural basis for consumers' perception of social risk remains undiscovered, and this novel study clarifies the relevant neural processes. A total of 26 volunteers were scanned while they evaluated purchase intention of products (purchase intention task) and their anticipation of others' disapproval for possessing a product (social risk task), using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The fMRI data from the purchase intention task was used to identify the brain region associated with perception of social risk during purchase decision making by using subjective social risk ratings for a parametric modulation analysis. Furthermore, we aimed to explore if there was a difference between participants' purchase decisions and their explicit evaluations of social risk, with reference to the neural activity associated with social risk perception. For this, subjective social risk ratings were used for a parametric modulation analysis on fMRI data from the social risk task. Analysis of the purchase intention task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the anterior insula, an area of the brain that is known as part of the emotion-related network. Analysis of the social risk task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the temporal parietal junction and the medial prefrontal cortex, which are known as theory-of-mind regions. Our results suggest that the anterior insula processes consumers' social risk implicitly to prompt consumers not to buy socially unacceptable products, whereas ToM-related regions process such risk explicitly in considering the anticipated disapproval of others. These findings may prove helpful in understanding the mental processes involved in purchase decisions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Ecological Risk Assessment with MCDM of Some Invasive Alien Plants in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xie, Guowen; Chen, Weiguang; Lin, Meizhen; Zheng, Yanling; Guo, Peiguo; Zheng, Yisheng
Alien plant invasion is an urgent global issue that threatens the sustainable development of the ecosystem health. The study of its ecological risk assessment (ERA) could help us to prevent and reduce the invasion risk more effectively. Based on the theory of ERA and methods of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), and through the analyses of the characteristics and processes of alien plant invasion, this paper discusses the methodologies of ERA of alien plant invasion. The assessment procedure consisted of risk source analysis, receptor analysis, exposure and hazard assessment, integral assessment, and countermeasure of risk management. The indicator system of risk source assessment as well as the indices and formulas applied to measure the ecological loss and risk were established, and the method for comprehensively assessing the ecological risk of alien plant invasion was worked out. The result of ecological risk analysis to 9 representative invasive alien plants in China shows that the ecological risk of Erigeron annuus, Ageratum conyzoides, Alternanthera philoxeroides and Mikania midrantha is high (grade1-2), that of Oxalis corymbosa and Wedelia chinensis comes next (grade3), while Mirabilis jalapa, Pilea microphylla and Calendula officinalis of the last (grade 4). Risk strategies are put forward on this basis.
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Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance.
Sedda, L; Morley, D W; Braks, M A H; De Simone, L; Benz, D; Rogers, D J
2014-12-01
In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks. The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…). Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks. This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties. Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Lin, Zi-Jing; Li, Lin; Cazzell, Mary; Liu, Hanli
2014-08-01
Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a variant of functional near infrared spectroscopy and has the capability of mapping or reconstructing three dimensional (3D) hemodynamic changes due to brain activity. Common methods used in DOT image analysis to define brain activation have limitations because the selection of activation period is relatively subjective. General linear model (GLM)-based analysis can overcome this limitation. In this study, we combine the atlas-guided 3D DOT image reconstruction with GLM-based analysis (i.e., voxel-wise GLM analysis) to investigate the brain activity that is associated with risk decision-making processes. Risk decision-making is an important cognitive process and thus is an essential topic in the field of neuroscience. The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) is a valid experimental model and has been commonly used to assess human risk-taking actions and tendencies while facing risks. We have used the BART paradigm with a blocked design to investigate brain activations in the prefrontal and frontal cortical areas during decision-making from 37 human participants (22 males and 15 females). Voxel-wise GLM analysis was performed after a human brain atlas template and a depth compensation algorithm were combined to form atlas-guided DOT images. In this work, we wish to demonstrate the excellence of using voxel-wise GLM analysis with DOT to image and study cognitive functions in response to risk decision-making. Results have shown significant hemodynamic changes in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active-choice mode and a different activation pattern between genders; these findings correlate well with published literature in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and fNIRS studies. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Genetic polymorphisms in the ESR1 gene and cerebral infarction risk: a meta-analysis.
Gao, Hong-Hua; Gao, Lian-Bo; Wen, Jia-Mei
2014-09-01
A number of studies have documented that estrogen receptor α (ESR1) may play an important role in the development and progression of cerebral infarction, but many existing studies have yielded inconclusive results. This meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the relationships between ESR1 genetic polymorphisms and cerebral infarction risk. The PubMed, CISCOM, CINAHL, Web of Science, Google Scholar, EBSCO, Cochrane Library, and CBM databases were searched for relevant articles published before October 1, 2013, without any language restrictions. Meta-analysis was conducted using the STATA 12.0 software. Seven case-control studies were included with a total of 1471 patients with cerebral infarction and 4688 healthy control subjects. Two common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the ESR1 gene (rs2234693 T>C and rs9340799 A>G) were assessed. Our meta-analysis results revealed that ESR1 genetic polymorphisms might increase the risk of cerebral infarction. Subgroup analysis by SNP type indicated that both rs2234693 and rs9340799 polymorphisms in the ESR1 gene were strongly associated with an increased risk of cerebral infarction. Further subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed significant associations between ESR1 genetic polymorphisms and increased risk of cerebral infarction among both Asians and Caucasians. In the stratified subgroup analysis by gender, the results suggested that ESR1 genetic polymorphisms were associated with an increased risk of cerebral infarction in the female population. However, there were no statistically significant associations between ESR1 genetic polymorphisms and cerebral infarction risk in the male population. Meta-regression analyses also confirmed that gender might be a main source of heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that ESR1 genetic polymorphisms may contribute to the development of cerebral infarction, especially in the female population.
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Gianassi, S; Bisin, S; Bindi, B; Spitaleri, I; Bambi, F
2010-01-01
The collection and handling of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) must meet high quality requirements. An integrated Quality Risk Management can help to identify and contain potential risks related to HSC production. Risk analysis techniques allow one to "weigh" identified hazards, considering the seriousness of their effects, frequency, and detectability, seeking to prevent the most harmful hazards. The Hazard Analysis Critical Point, recognized as the most appropriate technique to identify risks associated with physical, chemical, and biological hazards for cellular products, consists of classifying finished product specifications and limits of acceptability, identifying all off-specifications, defining activities that can cause them, and finally establishing both a monitoring system for each Critical Control Point and corrective actions for deviations. The severity of possible effects on patients, as well as the occurrence and detectability of critical parameters, are measured on quantitative scales (Risk Priority Number [RPN]). Risk analysis was performed with this technique on manipulation process of HPC performed at our blood center. The data analysis showed that hazards with higher values of RPN with greater impact on the process are loss of dose and tracking; technical skills of operators and manual transcription of data were the most critical parameters. Problems related to operator skills are handled by defining targeted training programs, while other critical parameters can be mitigated with the use of continuous control systems. The blood center management software was completed by a labeling system with forms designed to be in compliance with standards in force and by starting implementation of a cryopreservation management module. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression: A meta-analysis.
Li, Zongyao; Li, Bingrong; Song, Xingxing; Zhang, Dongfeng
2017-05-01
The associations between dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression remain controversial. Thus, we carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate these associations. A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wanfang databases for relevant studies up to January 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random effects model. A total of 9 studies for dietary zinc intake and 3 studies for dietary iron intake were finally included in present meta-analysis. The pooled RRs with 95% CIs of depression for the highest versus lowest dietary zinc and iron intake were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.58-0.76) and 0.57 (95% CI: 0.34-0.95), respectively. In subgroup analysis by study design, the inverse association between dietary zinc intake and risk of depression remained significant in the cohort studies and cross-sectional studies. The pooled RRs (95% CIs) for depression did not substantially change in the influence analysis and subgroup analysis by adjustment for body mass index (BMI). The present meta-analysis indicates inverse associations between dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Gregori, Dario; Rosato, Rosalba; Zecchin, Massimo; Di Lenarda, Andrea
2005-01-01
This paper discusses the use of bivariate survival curves estimators within the competing risk framework. Competing risks models are used for the analysis of medical data with more than one cause of death. The case of dilated cardiomiopathy is explored. Bivariate survival curves plot the conjoint mortality processes. The different graphic representation of bivariate survival analysis is the major contribute of this methodology to the competing risks analysis.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Objective: To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. Methods: The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to con...
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Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.
2014-01-01
The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…
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49 CFR 209.501 - Review of rail transportation safety and security route analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-10-01
... establish that the route chosen by the carrier poses the least overall safety and security risk, the... analysis, including a clear description of the risks on the selected route that have not been... commercially practicable alternative route poses fewer overall safety and security risks than the route...
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Application of the Maximum Entropy Method to Risk Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xie, Jigang; Song, Wenyun
The maximum entropy (ME) method can be used to analyze the risk of mergers and acquisitions when only pre-acquisition information is available. A practical example of the risk analysis of China listed firms’ mergers and acquisitions is provided to testify the feasibility and practicality of the method.
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Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald
2014-09-01
Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.
1994-08-01
The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in Cook Inlet for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. In evaluating the significance of accidental oil spills, it is important to remember that the occurrence of such spills is fundamentally probabilistic. The effects of oil spills that could occur during oil and gas production must be considered. This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Cook Inlet OCS Lease Sale 149. The objectivemore » of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area. This aspect is discussed in this volume of the two volume report.« less
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Risk analysis and its link with standards of the World Organisation for Animal Health.
Sugiura, K; Murray, N
2011-04-01
Among the agreements included in the treaty that created the World Trade Organization (WTO) in January 1995 is the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) that sets out the basic rules for food safety and animal and plant health standards. The SPS Agreement designates the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) as the organisation responsible for developing international standards for animal health and zoonoses. The SPS Agreement requires that the sanitary measures that WTO members apply should be based on science and encourages them to either apply measures based on the OIE standards or, if they choose to adopt a higher level of protection than that provided by these standards, apply measures based on a science-based risk assessment. The OIE also provides a procedural framework for risk analysis for its Member Countries to use. Despite the inevitable challenges that arise in carrying out a risk analysis of the international trade in animals and animal products, the OIE risk analysis framework provides a structured approach that facilitates the identification, assessment, management and communication of these risks.
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The risk factors for avian influenza on poultry farms: a meta-analysis.
Wang, Youming; Li, Peng; Wu, Yangli; Sun, Xiangdong; Yu, Kangzhen; Yu, Chuanhua; Qin, Aijian
2014-11-01
Avian influenza is a severe threat both to humans and poultry, but so far, no systematic review on the identification and evaluation of the risk factors of avian influenza infection has been published. The objective of this meta-analysis is to provide evidence for decision-making and further research on AI prevention through identifying the risk factors associated with AI infection on poultry farms. The results from 15 selected studies on risk factors for AI infections on poultry farms were analyzed quantitatively by meta-analysis. Open water source (OR=2.89), infections on nearby farms (OR=4.54), other livestock (OR=1.90) and disinfection of farm (OR=0.54) have significant association with AI infection on poultry farms. The subgroup analysis results indicate that there exist different risk factors for AI infections in different types of farms. The main risk factors for AI infection in poultry farms are environmental conditions (open water source, infections on nearby farms), keeping other livestock on the same farm and no disinfection of the farm. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Przedlacki, J; Buczyńska-Chyl, J; Koźmiński, P; Niemczyk, E; Wojtaszek, E; Gieglis, E; Żebrowski, P; Podgórzak, A; Wściślak, J; Wieliczko, M; Matuszkiewicz-Rowińska, J
2018-05-01
We assessed the FRAX® method in 718 hemodialyzed patients in estimating increased risk of bone major and hip fractures. Over two prospective years, statistical analysis showed that FRAX® enables a better assessment of bone major fracture risk in these patients than any of its components and other risk factors considered in the analysis. Despite the generally increased risk of bone fractures among patients with end-stage renal disease, no prediction models for identifying individuals at particular risk have been developed to date. The goal of this prospective, multicenter observational study was to assess the usefulness of the FRAX® method in comparison to all its elements considered separately, selected factors associated with renal disease and the history of falls, in estimating increased risk of low-energy major bone and hip fractures in patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis. The study included a total of 1068 hemodialysis patients, who were followed for 2 years, and finally, 718 of them were analyzed. The risk analysis included the Polish version of the FRAX® calculator (without bone mineral density), dialysis vintage, mineral metabolism disorders (serum calcium, phosphate, and parathyroid hormone), and the number of falls during the last year before the study. Over 2 years, low-energy 30 major bone fractures were diagnosed and 13 of hip fractures among them. Area under the curve for FRAX® was 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.84) for major fractures and 0.70 (95% CI 0.563-0.832) for hip fractures. The AUC for major bone fractures was significantly higher than for all elements of the FRAX® calculator. In logistic regression analysis FRAX® was the strongest independent risk factor of assessment of the major bone fracture risk. FRAX® enables a better assessment of major bone fracture risk in ESRD patients undergoing hemodialysis than any of its components and other risk factors considered in the analysis.
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Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.
van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M
2009-12-05
We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.
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Willard, Nancy; Chutuape, Kate; Stines, Stephanie; Ellen, Jonathan M
2012-01-01
HIV prevention efforts have expanded beyond individual-level interventions to address structural determinants of risk. Coalitions have been an important vehicle for addressing similar intractable and deeply rooted health-related issues. A root cause analysis process may aid coalitions in identifying fundamental, structural-level contributors to risk and in identifying appropriate solutions. For this article, strategic plans for 13 coalitions were analyzed both before and after a root cause analysis approach was applied to determine the coalitions' strategic plans potential impact and comprehensiveness. After root cause analysis, strategic plans trended toward targeting policies and practices rather than on single agency programmatic changes. Plans expanded to target multiple sectors and several changes within sectors to penetrate deeply into a sector or system. Findings suggest that root cause analysis may be a viable tool to assist coalitions in identifying structural determinants and possible solutions for HIV risk.
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Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.
Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark
2007-08-01
This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.
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Steele, Jennifer A; Richter, Carsten H; Echaubard, Pierre; Saenna, Parichat; Stout, Virginia; Sithithaworn, Paiboon; Wilcox, Bruce A
2018-05-17
Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a fatal bile duct cancer associated with infection by the liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in the lower Mekong region. Numerous public health interventions have focused on reducing exposure to O. viverrini, but incidence of CCA in the region remains high. While this may indicate the inefficacy of public health interventions due to complex social and cultural factors, it may further indicate other risk factors or interactions with the parasite are important in pathogenesis of CCA. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of described risk factors for CCA in addition to O. viverrini to guide future integrative interventions. We searched five international and seven Thai research databases to identify studies relevant to risk factors for CCA in the lower Mekong region. Selected studies were assessed for risk of bias and quality in terms of study design, population, CCA diagnostic methods, and statistical methods. The final 18 included studies reported numerous risk factors which were grouped into behaviors, socioeconomics, diet, genetics, gender, immune response, other infections, and treatment for O. viverrini. Seventeen risk factors were reported by two or more studies and were assessed with random effects models during meta-analysis. This meta-analysis indicates that the combination of alcohol and smoking (OR = 11.1, 95% CI: 5.63-21.92, P < 0.0001) is most significantly associated with increased risk for CCA and is an even greater risk factor than O. viverrini exposure. This analysis also suggests that family history of cancer, consumption of raw cyprinoid fish, consumption of high nitrate foods, and praziquantel treatment are associated with significantly increased risk. These risk factors may have complex relationships with the host, parasite, or pathogenesis of CCA, and many of these risk factors were found to interact with each other in one or more studies. Our findings suggest that a complex variety of risk factors in addition to O. viverrini infection should be addressed in future public health interventions to reduce CCA in affected regions. In particular, smoking and alcohol use, dietary patterns, and socioeconomic factors should be considered when developing intervention programs to reduce CCA.
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Jin, Jian; Ouyang, Zhiguo; Wang, Zhaoyan
2014-01-01
Quantification of the association between the intake of vegetables and fruit and risk of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) is controversial. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between vegetables and fruit and NPC risk. Pertinent studies were identified by a search in PubMed, Web of Knowledge and Wan Fang Med Online. Random-effects models were used to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Publication bias was estimated using Egger's regression asymmetry test. Finally, 15 articles comprising 8208 NPC cases were included in this meta-analysis. The combined results showed that there was significant association between vegetables and fruit intake and NPC risk. The pooled RRs were 0.60 (95% CI = 0.47–0.76) for vegetables and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.56–0.70) for fruit. No publication bias was detected. Our analysis indicated that intake of vegetables and fruit may have a protective effect on NPC. Since the potential biases and confounders could not be ruled out completely in this meta-analysis, further studies are needed. PMID:25008797
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Double versus single stenting for coronary bifurcation lesions: a meta-analysis.
Katritsis, Demosthenes G; Siontis, George C M; Ioannidis, John P A
2009-10-01
Several trials have addressed whether bifurcation lesions require stenting of both the main vessel and side branch, but uncertainty remains on the benefits of such double versus single stenting of the main vessel only. We have conducted a meta-analysis of randomized trials including patients with coronary bifurcation lesions who were randomly selected to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention by either double or single stenting. Six studies (n=1642 patients) were eligible. There was increased risk of myocardial infarction with double stenting (risk ratio, 1.78; P=0.001 by fixed effects; risk ratio, 1.49 with Bayesian meta-analysis). The summary point estimate suggested also an increased risk of stent thrombosis with double stenting, but the difference was not nominally significant given the sparse data (risk ratio, 1.85; P=0.19). No obvious difference was seen for death (risk ratio, 0.81; P=0.66) and target lesion revascularization (risk ratio, 1.09; P=0.67). Stenting of both the main vessel and side branch in bifurcation lesions may increase myocardial infarction and stent thrombosis risk compared with stenting of the main vessel only.
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Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita
2018-03-01
In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.
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A hierarchical-multiobjective framework for risk management
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Haimes, Yacov Y.; Li, Duan
1991-01-01
A broad hierarchical-multiobjective framework is established and utilized to methodologically address the management of risk. United into the framework are the hierarchical character of decision-making, the multiple decision-makers at separate levels within the hierarchy, the multiobjective character of large-scale systems, the quantitative/empirical aspects, and the qualitative/normative/judgmental aspects. The methodological components essentially consist of hierarchical-multiobjective coordination, risk of extreme events, and impact analysis. Examples of applications of the framework are presented. It is concluded that complex and interrelated forces require an analysis of trade-offs between engineering analysis and societal preferences, as in the hierarchical-multiobjective framework, to successfully address inherent risk.
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Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo
2015-01-01
This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.
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DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2006-11-01
This report discusses data acquisition and analysis for grade crossing risk analysis at the proposed San Joaquin High-Speed Rail Corridor in San Joaquin, California, and documents the data acquisition and analysis methodologies used to collect and an...
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Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.
2009-04-01
Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.
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The association between physical activity and renal cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis
Behrens, G; Leitzmann, M F
2013-01-01
Background: Physical activity may decrease renal cancer risk by reducing obesity, blood pressure, insulin resistance, and lipid peroxidation. Despite plausible biologic mechanisms linking increased physical activity to decreased risk for renal cancer, few epidemiologic studies have been able to report a clear inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer, and no meta-analysis is available on the topic. Methods: We searched the literature using PubMed and Web of Knowledge to identify published non-ecologic epidemiologic studies quantifying the relationship between physical activity and renal cancer risk in individuals without a cancer history. Following the PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, including information from 19 studies based on a total of 2 327 322 subjects and 10 756 cases. The methodologic quality of the studies was examined using a comprehensive scoring system. Results: Comparing high vs low levels of physical activity, we observed an inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer risk (summary relative risk (RR) from random-effects meta-analysis=0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.79–0.97). Summarising risk estimates from high-quality studies strengthened the inverse association between physical activity and renal cancer risk (RR=0.78; 95% CI=0.66–0.92). Effect modification by adiposity, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, smoking, gender, or geographic region was not observed. Conclusion: Our comprehensive meta-analysis provides strong support for an inverse relation of physical activity to renal cancer risk. Future high-quality studies are required to discern which specific types, intensities, frequencies, and durations of physical activity are needed for renal cancer risk reduction. PMID:23412105
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Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Edwards, Michelle
2010-01-01
Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.
2011-02-01
A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less
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Improving risk management: from lame excuses to principled practice.
Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth; Cox, Louis Anthony
2014-07-01
The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame-shifting "lame excuses" for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning-especially from near-misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk-reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huston, R. J.
1979-01-01
The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.
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Meyer, Rüdiger; Freitag-Wolf, Sandra; Blindow, Silke; Büning, Jürgen; Habermann, Jens K
2017-02-01
Cancer risk assessment for ulcerative colitis patients by evaluating histological changes through colonoscopy surveillance is still challenging. Thus, additional parameters of high prognostic impact for the development of colitis-associated carcinoma are necessary. This meta-analysis was conducted to clarify the value of aneuploidy as predictor for individual cancer risk compared with current surveillance parameters. A systematic web-based search identified studies published in English that addressed the relevance of the ploidy status for individual cancer risk during surveillance in comparison to neoplastic mucosal changes. The resulting data were included into a meta-analysis, and odds ratios (OR) were calculated for aneuploidy or dysplasia or aneuploidy plus dysplasia. Twelve studies addressing the relevance of aneuploidy compared to dyplasia were comprehensively evaluated and further used for meta-analysis. The meta-analysis revealed that aneuploidy (OR 5.31 [95 % CI 2.03, 13.93]) is an equally effective parameter for cancer risk assessment in ulcerative colitis patients as dysplasia (OR 4.93 [1.61, 15.11]). Strikingly, the combined assessment of dysplasia and aneuploidy is superior compared to applying each parameter alone (OR 8.99 [3.08, 26.26]). This meta-analysis reveals that aneuploidy is an equally effective parameter for individual cancer risk assessment in ulcerative colitis as the detection of dysplasia. More important, the combined assessment of dysplasia and aneuploidy outperforms the use of each parameter alone. We suggest image cytometry for ploidy assessment to become an additional feature of consensus criteria to individually assess cancer risk in UC.
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Madsen, Ida E H; Hannerz, Harald; Nyberg, Solja T; Magnusson Hanson, Linda L; Ahola, Kirsi; Alfredsson, Lars; Batty, G David; Bjorner, Jakob B; Borritz, Marianne; Burr, Hermann; Dragano, Nico; Ferrie, Jane E; Hamer, Mark; Jokela, Markus; Knutsson, Anders; Koskenvuo, Markku; Koskinen, Aki; Leineweber, Constanze; Nielsen, Martin L; Nordin, Maria; Oksanen, Tuula; Pejtersen, Jan H; Pentti, Jaana; Salo, Paula; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Suominen, Sakari; Theorell, Töres; Toppinen-Tanner, Salla; Vahtera, Jussi; Väänänen, Ari; Westerholm, Peter J M; Westerlund, Hugo; Fransson, Eleonor; Heikkilä, Katriina; Virtanen, Marianna; Rugulies, Reiner; Kivimäki, Mika
2013-01-01
Previous studies have shown that gainfully employed individuals with high work demands and low control at work (denoted "job strain") are at increased risk of common mental disorders, including depression. Most existing studies have, however, measured depression using self-rated symptom scales that do not necessarily correspond to clinically diagnosed depression. In addition, a meta-analysis from 2008 indicated publication bias in the field. This study protocol describes the planned design and analyses of an individual participant data meta-analysis, to examine whether job strain is associated with an increased risk of clinically diagnosed unipolar depression based on hospital treatment registers. The study will be based on data from approximately 120,000 individuals who participated in 14 studies on work environment and health in 4 European countries. The self-reported working conditions data will be merged with national registers on psychiatric hospital treatment, primarily hospital admissions. Study-specific risk estimates for the association between job strain and depression will be calculated using Cox regressions. The study-specific risk estimates will be pooled using random effects meta-analysis. The planned analyses will help clarify whether job strain is associated with an increased risk of clinically diagnosed unipolar depression. As the analysis is based on pre-planned study protocols and an individual participant data meta-analysis, the pooled risk estimates will not be influenced by selective reporting and publication bias. However, the results of the planned study may only pertain to severe cases of unipolar depression, because of the outcome measure applied.
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Alcohol Intake and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.
Hong, Seung-Hee; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Kim, Hyeon Suk
2017-04-01
The purpose of this study was to assess whether alcohol intake is associated with the risk of thyroid cancer by a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in June of 2015 to locate eligible studies. We included observational studies such as cross-sectional studies, case-control studies, and cohort studies reporting odd ratios (ORs) or relative risk (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We included 33 observational studies with two cross-sectional studies, 20 case-controls studies, and 11 cohort studies, which involved a total of 7,725 thyroid cancer patients and 3,113,679 participants without thyroid cancer in the final analysis. In the fixed-effect model meta-analysis of all 33 studies, we found that alcohol intake was consistently associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer (OR or RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.83; I 2 =38.6%). In the subgroup meta-analysis by type of study, alcohol intake also decreased the risk of thyroid cancer in both case-control studies (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.92; I 2 =29.5%; n=20) and cohort studies (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.82; I 2 =0%; n=11). Moreover, subgroup meta-analyses by type of thyroid cancer, gender, amount of alcohol consumed, and methodological quality of study showed that alcohol intake was significantly associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer. The current meta-analysis of observational studies found that, unlike most of other types of cancer, alcohol intake decreased the risk of thyroid cancer.
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Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L
2016-02-10
Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ling, Lisa
2014-01-01
For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.
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Wu, Bing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xu-Xiang; Cheng, Shu-Pei
2011-12-01
A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Zhao, Shankun; Deng, Tuo; Luo, Lianmin; Wang, Jiamin; Li, Ermao; Liu, Luhao; Li, Futian; Luo, Jintai; Zhao, Zhigang
2017-10-01
Opioid analgesics have been widely used to relieve chronic pain conditions; however, a connection between opioid analgesic administration and increased susceptibility to erectile dysfunction (ED) has been hypothesized. To evaluate whether opioid use was a risk factor for ED in a systematic review and meta-analysis. The PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases were searched to identify eligible studies concerning opioid use and risk of ED from inception to April 2017. The association between opioid use and risk of ED was summarized using the relative risk with 95% CI. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess potential bias. The Begg and Egger tests were used for publication bias analysis. The GRADE evidence profile tool was used to assess the quality of the evidence. The overall combined risk estimates for the effect of opioid use on ED were calculated using a random-effects model. This meta-analysis included 8,829 men (mean age = 41.6 years) from 10 studies, 2,456 of whom received opioid management (duration of intervention = 4 months to 9.5 years). Pooled results demonstrated that the use of opioids was significantly associated with an increased risk of ED (relative risk = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.66-2.32, P < .001). Estimates of the total effects were generally consistent in the sensitivity analysis. No evidence of publication bias was observed. The overall quality of evidence was rated as low. We found that men with opioid use had a significantly increased prevalence of ED, which suggests that patients and clinicians should be aware of the potential role played by opioid administration in the development of ED. This is the first meta-analysis performed to describe the relation between opioid use and ED risk based on all available epidemiologic studies. However, the direction of causality between opioid use and risk of ED should be interpreted with caution because most included studies used a cross-sectional design. Evidence from the included observational studies indicated that men with opioid use had a significantly increased risk of ED. Further randomized controlled trials are still needed to confirm this relation. Zhao S, Deng T, Luo L, et al. Association Between Opioid Use and Risk of Erectile Dysfunction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. J Sex Med 2017;14:1209-1219. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.
1980-01-01
The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.
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Bilirubin and Stroke Risk Using a Mendelian Randomization Design.
Lee, Sun Ju; Jee, Yon Ho; Jung, Keum Ji; Hong, Seri; Shin, Eun Soon; Jee, Sun Ha
2017-05-01
Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of stroke. However, the nature of the relationship between the two remains unknown. We used a Mendelian randomization analysis to assess the causal effect of serum bilirubin on stroke risk in Koreans. The 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (<10 -7 ) including rs6742078 of uridine diphosphoglucuronyl-transferase were selected from genome-wide association study of bilirubin level in the KCPS-II (Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II) Biobank subcohort consisting of 4793 healthy Korean and 806 stroke cases. Weighted genetic risk score was calculated using 14 SNPs selected from the top SNPs. Both rs6742078 (F statistics=138) and weighted genetic risk score with 14 SNPs (F statistics=187) were strongly associated with bilirubin levels. Simultaneously, serum bilirubin level was associated with decreased risk of stroke in an ordinary least-squares analysis. However, in 2-stage least-squares Mendelian randomization analysis, no causal relationship between serum bilirubin and stroke risk was found. There is no evidence that bilirubin level is causally associated with risk of stroke in Koreans. Therefore, bilirubin level is not a risk determinant of stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.
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Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew
2014-10-01
Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.
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Lofthouse, Rachael; Golding, Laura; Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard; Lindsay, William
2017-12-01
Risk assessments assist professionals in the identification and management of risk of aggression. The present study aimed to systematically review evidence on the efficacy of assessments for managing the risk of physical aggression in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). A literature search was conducted using the databases PsycINFO, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Electronic and hand searches identified 14 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Standardised mean difference effect sizes Area Under Curve (AUC) were calculated for studies. Random effects subgroup analysis was used to compare different types of risk measures (Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment and dynamic), and prospective vs. catch-up longitudinal study designs. Overall, evidence of predictive validity was found for risk measures with ID populations: (AUC)=0.724, 95% CI [0.681, 0.768]. There was no variation in the performance of different types of risk measures, or different study design. Risk assessment measures predict the likelihood of aggression in ID population and are comparable to those in mainstream populations. Further meta-analysis is necessary when risk measures are more established in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Corona, Erik; Chen, Rong; Sikora, Martin; Morgan, Alexander A.; Patel, Chirag J.; Ramesh, Aditya; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Butte, Atul J.
2013-01-01
Genetic diversity across different human populations can enhance understanding of the genetic basis of disease. We calculated the genetic risk of 102 diseases in 1,043 unrelated individuals across 51 populations of the Human Genome Diversity Panel. We found that genetic risk for type 2 diabetes and pancreatic cancer decreased as humans migrated toward East Asia. In addition, biliary liver cirrhosis, alopecia areata, bladder cancer, inflammatory bowel disease, membranous nephropathy, systemic lupus erythematosus, systemic sclerosis, ulcerative colitis, and vitiligo have undergone genetic risk differentiation. This analysis represents a large-scale attempt to characterize genetic risk differentiation in the context of migration. We anticipate that our findings will enable detailed analysis pertaining to the driving forces behind genetic risk differentiation. PMID:23717210
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Insomnia and risk of dementia in older adults: Systematic review and meta-analysis.
de Almondes, Katie Moraes; Costa, Mônica Vieira; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro Fernandes; Diniz, Breno Satler
2016-06-01
There are cross-sectional evidences of an association between sleep disorders and cognitive impairment on older adults. However, there are no consensus by means of longitudinal studies data on the increased risk of developing dementia related to insomnia. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of incident all-cause dementia in individuals with insomnia in population-based prospective cohort studies. Five studies of 5.242 retrieved references were included in the meta-analysis. We used the generic inverse variance method with a random effects model to calculate the pooled risk of dementia in older adults with insomnia. We assessed heterogeneity in the meta-analysis by means of the Q-test and I2 index. Study quality was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale The results showed that Insomnia was associated with a significant risk of all-cause dementia (RR = 1.53 CI95% (1.07-2.18), z = 2.36, p = 0.02). There was evidence for significant heterogeneity in the analysis (q-value = 2.4, p < 0.001 I2 = 82%). Insomnia is associated with an increased risk for dementia. This results provide evidences that future studies should investigate dementia prevention among elderly individuals through screening and proper management of insomnia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.
Morris, E Jane
2011-10-01
In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.
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Jang, Yuri; Park, Nan Sook; Yoon, Hyunwoo; Huang, Ya-Ching; Rhee, Min-Kyoung; Chiriboga, David A; Kim, Miyong T
2018-01-01
Using data from the 2015 Asian American Quality of Life Survey (N = 2,609), latent profile analysis was conducted on general (health insurance, usual place for care and income) and immigrant-specific (nativity, length of stay in the U.S., English proficiency and acculturation) risk factors of healthcare access. Latent profile analysis identified a three-cluster model (low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups). Compared with the low-risk group, the odds of having an unmet healthcare need was 1.52 times greater in the moderate-risk group and 2.24 times greater in the high-risk group. Challenging the myth of model minority, the present sample of Asian Americans demonstrates its vulnerability in access to healthcare. Findings also show the heterogeneity in healthcare access risk profiles. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Chang, Yen-Hou; Li, Wai-Hou; Chang, Yi; Peng, Chia-Wen; Cheng, Ching-Hsuan; Chang, Wei-Pin; Chuang, Chi-Mu
2016-03-17
In the analysis of survival data for cancer patients, the problem of competing risks is often ignored. Competing risks have been recognized as a special case of time-to-event analysis. The conventional techniques for time-to-event analysis applied in the presence of competing risks often give biased or uninterpretable results. Using a prospectively collected administrative health care database in a single institution, we identified patients diagnosed with stage III or IV primary epithelial ovarian, tubal, and peritoneal cancers with minimal residual disease after primary cytoreductive surgery between 1995 and 2012. Here, we sought to evaluate whether intraperitoneal chemotherapy outperforms intravenous chemotherapy in the presence of competing risks. Unadjusted and multivariable subdistribution hazards models were applied to this database with two types of competing risks (cancer-specific mortality and other-cause mortality) coded to measure the relative effects of intraperitoneal chemotherapy. A total of 1263 patients were recruited as the initial cohort. After propensity score matching, 381 patients in each arm entered into final competing risk analysis. Cumulative incidence estimates for cancer-specific mortality were statistically significantly lower (p = 0.017, Gray test) in patients receiving intraperitoneal chemotherapy (5-year estimates, 34.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 29.5-39.6%, and 10-year estimates, 60.7%; 95% CI, 52.2-68.0%) versus intravenous chemotherapy (5-year estimates, 41.3%; 95% CI, 36.2-46.3%, and 10-year estimates, 67.5%, 95% CI, 61.6-72.7%). In subdistribution hazards analysis, for cancer-specific mortality, intraperitoneal chemotherapy outperforms intravenous chemotherapy (Subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70-0.96) after correcting other covariates. In conclusion, results from this comparative effectiveness study provide supportive evidence for previous published randomized trials that intraperitoneal chemotherapy outperforms intravenous chemotherapy even eliminating the confounding of competing risks. We suggest that implementation of competing risk analysis should be highly considered for the investigation of cancer patients who have medium to long-term follow-up period.
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Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.
2015-01-01
Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. Conclusions: CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:26052977
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Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias
2015-09-15
Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.
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The role of the RTEL1 rs2297440 polymorphism in the risk of glioma development: a meta-analysis.
Zhang, Cuiping; Lu, Yu; Zhang, Xiaolian; Yang, Dongmei; Shang, Shuxin; Liu, Denghe; Jiang, Kongmei; Huang, Weiqiang
2016-07-01
The regulator of the telomere elongation helicase1 (RTEL1) gene plays a crucial role in the DNA double-stand break-repair pathway by maintaining genomic stability. Recent epidemiological studies showed that the rs2297440 polymorphism in the RTEL1 gene was a potential risk locus for glioma development, but the results were inconclusive. To clarify the association between this polymorphism and the risk of glioma, we performed a comprehensive meta-analysis. The PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were systematically searched to identify all relevant published studies up to 30 August 2015. Four eligible studies were finally included. The pooled results indicated that the RTEL1 rs2297440 polymorphism moderately increased the risk of glioma in all genetic models. A comparison of the dominant model CT + CC versus TT (OR 1.40; 95 % CI 1.24-1.60; p < 0.001) indicated that having the C allele conferred a 40 % increased risk of developing glioma. In a subgroup analysis based on geographic location (Europe, Asia, and America), there was an association between the rs2297440 polymorphism and the risk of glioma in all three areas. The results of the subgroup analysis based on source of control indicated an elevated risk of glioma in population-based control studies. This meta-analysis demonstrates that the RTEL1 rs2297440 polymorphism plays a moderate, but significant role in the risk of glioma. Further studies with larger sample sizes are necessary to confirm this finding.
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Zeleznik, O A; Poole, E M; Lindstrom, S; Kraft, P; Van Hylckama Vlieg, A; Lasky-Su, J A; Harrington, L B; Hagan, K; Kim, J; Parry, B A; Giordano, N; Kabrhel, C
2018-03-01
Essentials Risk-stratification often fails to predict clinical deterioration in pulmonary embolism (PE). First-ever high-throughput metabolomics analysis of risk-stratified PE patients. Changes in circulating metabolites reflect a compromised energy metabolism in PE. Metabolites play a key role in the pathophysiology and risk stratification of PE. Background Patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) exhibit wide variation in clinical presentation and outcomes. Our understanding of the pathophysiologic mechanisms differentiating low-risk and high-risk PE is limited, so current risk-stratification efforts often fail to predict clinical deterioration and are insufficient to guide management. Objectives To improve our understanding of the physiology differentiating low-risk from high-risk PE, we conducted the first-ever high-throughput metabolomics analysis (843 named metabolites) comparing PE patients across risk strata within a nested case-control study. Patients/methods We enrolled 92 patients diagnosed with acute PE and collected plasma within 24 h of PE diagnosis. We used linear regression and pathway analysis to identify metabolites and pathways associated with PE risk-strata. Results When we compared 46 low-risk with 46 intermediate/high-risk PEs, 50 metabolites were significantly different after multiple testing correction. These metabolites were enriched in the following pathways: tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, fatty acid metabolism (acyl carnitine) and purine metabolism, (hypo)xanthine/inosine containing. Additionally, energy, nucleotide and amino acid pathways were downregulated in intermediate/high-risk PE patients. When we compared 28 intermediate-risk with 18 high-risk PE patients, 41 metabolites differed at a nominal P-value level. These metabolites were enriched in fatty acid metabolism (acyl cholines), and hemoglobin and porphyrin metabolism. Conclusion Our results suggest that high-throughput metabolomics can provide insight into the pathophysiology of PE. Specifically, changes in circulating metabolites reflect compromised energy metabolism in intermediate/high-risk PE patients. These findings demonstrate the important role metabolites play in the pathophysiology of PE and highlight metabolomics as a potential tool for risk stratification of PE. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.
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Convergent evidence from systematic analysis of GWAS revealed genetic basis of esophageal cancer.
Gao, Xue-Xin; Gao, Lei; Wang, Jiu-Qiang; Qu, Su-Su; Qu, Yue; Sun, Hong-Lei; Liu, Si-Dang; Shang, Ying-Li
2016-07-12
Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with risk of esophageal cancer (EC). However, investigation of genetic basis from the perspective of systematic biology and integrative genomics remains scarce.In this study, we explored genetic basis of EC based on GWAS data and implemented a series of bioinformatics methods including functional annotation, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis, pathway enrichment analysis and pathway grouped network analysis.Two hundred and thirteen risk SNPs were identified, in which 44 SNPs were found to have significantly differential gene expression in esophageal tissues by eQTL analysis. By pathway enrichment analysis, 170 risk genes mapped by risk SNPs were enriched into 38 significant GO terms and 17 significant KEGG pathways, which were significantly grouped into 9 sub-networks by pathway grouped network analysis. The 9 groups of interconnected pathways were mainly involved with muscle cell proliferation, cellular response to interleukin-6, cell adhesion molecules, and ethanol oxidation, which might participate in the development of EC.Our findings provide genetic evidence and new insight for exploring the molecular mechanisms of EC.
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Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-01-01
... one analysis must be compatible in form and content with the data input requirements of any other... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.205 General. (a) Public risk management. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to...
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Herrick, Cynthia J.; Yount, Byron W.; Eyler, Amy A.
2016-01-01
Objective Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of this study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. Design This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employee zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual and zip code level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Setting Data was collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system 2009–2012. Subjects The dataset contains 25,227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual’s first entry into the database, 15,522 individuals had complete data for analysis. Results The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2.3%. There was significant variability in individual and zip code level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percent poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Conclusions Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighborhood environment, and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health. PMID:26638995
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Herrick, Cynthia J; Yount, Byron W; Eyler, Amy A
2016-08-01
Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employees' zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual- and zip-code-level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Data were collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system, 2009-2012. The data set contains 25 227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual's first entry into the database, 15 522 individuals had complete data for analysis. The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2·3 %. There was significant variability in individual- and zip-code-level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percentage of poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighbourhood environment and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health.
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Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio
2017-01-01
To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure ( P <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship ( P >0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant ( P <0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.
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Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D.; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio
2017-01-01
AIM To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship (P>0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y. PMID:28393027
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Costing the satellite power system
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.
1978-01-01
The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.
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Novel risk score of contrast-induced nephropathy after percutaneous coronary intervention.
Ji, Ling; Su, XiaoFeng; Qin, Wei; Mi, XuHua; Liu, Fei; Tang, XiaoHong; Li, Zi; Yang, LiChuan
2015-08-01
Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a major cause of acute kidney injury. In this study, we established a comprehensive risk score model to assess risk of CIN after PCI procedure, which could be easily used in a clinical environment. A total of 805 PCI patients, divided into analysis cohort (70%) and validation cohort (30%), were enrolled retrospectively in this study. Risk factors for CIN were identified using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression in the analysis cohort. Risk score model was developed based on multiple regression coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of the new risk score system was validated in the validation cohort. Comparisons between the new risk score model and previous reported models were applied. The incidence of post-PCI CIN in the analysis cohort (n = 565) was 12%. Considerably high CIN incidence (50%) was observed in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Age >75, body mass index (BMI) >25, myoglobin level, cardiac function level, hypoalbuminaemia, history of chronic kidney disease (CKD), Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) were identified as independent risk factors of post-PCI CIN. A novel risk score model was established using multivariate regression coefficients, which showed highest sensitivity and specificity (0.917, 95%CI 0.877-0.957) compared with previous models. A new post-PCI CIN risk score model was developed based on a retrospective study of 805 patients. Application of this model might be helpful to predict CIN in patients undergoing PCI procedure. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.
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Diabetes mellitus and risk of hip fractures: a meta-analysis.
Fan, Y; Wei, F; Lang, Y; Liu, Y
2016-01-01
This meta-analysis revealed that diabetic adults had a twofold greater risk of hip fractures compared with non-diabetic populations, and this association was more pronounced in type 1 diabetes. The relationship between diabetes mellitus and risk of hip fracture yielded conflicting results. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the association between diabetes mellitus and the risk of hip fractures based on observational studies. We conducted a systematic literature search of PubMed and Embase databases through May 2015. We selected cohort and case-control studies providing at least age-adjusted risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of hip fractures among diabetic and non-diabetic subjects. Moreover, we pooled the female-to-male RR of hip fractures from studies that reported gender-specific risk estimate in a single study. Twenty-one studies involving 82,293 hip fracture events among 6,995,272 participants were identified. Diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of hip fractures (RR 2.07; 95 % CI 1.83-2.33) in a random effects model. Subgroup analysis indicated that excess risk of hip fracture was more pronounced in type 1 diabetes (RR 5.76; 95 % CI 3.66-9.07) than that in type 2 diabetes (RR 1.34; 95 % CI 1.19-1.51). The pooled female-to-male RR of hip fractures was 1.09 (95 % CI 0.93-1.28). Individuals with diabetes mellitus have an excessive risk of hip fractures, and this relationship is more pronounced in type 1 diabetes. The association between diabetes and hip fracture risk is similar in men and women.
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Analysis of dengue fever risk using geostatistics model in bone regency
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Amran, Stang, Mallongi, Anwar
2017-03-01
This research aim is to analysis of dengue fever risk based on Geostatistics model in Bone Regency. Risk levels of dengue fever are denoted by parameter of Binomial distribution. Effect of temperature, rainfalls, elevation, and larvae abundance are investigated through Geostatistics model. Bayesian hierarchical method is used in estimation process. Using dengue fever data in eleven locations this research shows that temperature and rainfall have significant effect of dengue fever risk in Bone regency.
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2017-09-01
whether emergency incidents connected to low frequency and high risk events contain sufficient warning signs or indicators of imminent catastrophic... high risk events contain sufficient warning signs or indicators of imminent catastrophic events, if firefighters could identify them, and if there...EFFECTIVE TRAINING SOLUTIONS FOR FIREFIGHTING: THE ANALYSIS OF EMERGENCY RESPONSES AND LINE OF DUTY DEATH REPORTS FOR LOW FREQUENCY, HIGH RISK EVENTS
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Zhou, Cheng-Fan; Ma, Tai; Zhou, Deng-Chuan; Shen, Tong; Zhu, Qi-Xing
2015-08-01
Numerous epidemiological studies have evaluated the association of Glutathione S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) Ile105Val polymorphism with the risk of skin cancer. However, the results remain inconclusive. To derive a more precise estimation of the association between the GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism and skin cancer risk, a meta-analysis was performed. A comprehensive search was conducted to identify the eligible studies. We used odds ratios (ORs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association of GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism with skin cancer risk. Thirteen case-control studies in nine articles, which included a total of 1504 cases and 2243 controls. Overall, we found that GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism was not associated with skin cancer risk. Furthermore, subgroup analysis by histological types showed that GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism was associated with risks of malignant melanoma under the dominant model (Val/Val + Val/Ile vs. Ile/Ile: OR 1.230, 95 % CI 1.017-1.488, P = 0.033). However, lack of association between GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism and BCC and SCC risk in all genetic models. Our meta-analysis suggested that the GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism might be associated with increased risk of malignant melanoma in Caucasian population.
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Liu, Renzhi; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Zhijiao; Borthwick, Alistair; Zhang, Ke
2015-12-02
Over the past half century, a surprising number of major pollution incidents occurred due to tailings dam failures. Most previous studies of such incidents comprised forensic analyses of environmental impacts after a tailings dam failure, with few considering the combined pollution risk before incidents occur at a watershed-scale. We therefore propose Watershed-scale Tailings-pond Pollution Risk Analysis (WTPRA), designed for multiple mine tailings ponds, stemming from previous watershed-scale accidental pollution risk assessments. Transferred and combined risk is embedded using risk rankings of multiple routes of the "source-pathway-target" in the WTPRA. The previous approach is modified using multi-criteria analysis, dam failure models, and instantaneous water quality models, which are modified for application to multiple tailings ponds. The study area covers the basin of Gutanting Reservoir (the largest backup drinking water source for Beijing) in Zhangjiakou City, where many mine tailings ponds are located. The resultant map shows that risk is higher downstream of Gutanting Reservoir and in its two tributary basins (i.e., Qingshui River and Longyang River). Conversely, risk is lower in the midstream and upstream reaches. The analysis also indicates that the most hazardous mine tailings ponds are located in Chongli and Xuanhua, and that Guanting Reservoir is the most vulnerable receptor. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed to validate the robustness of the WTPRA method.
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Garlic consumption and colorectal cancer risk in man: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Chiavarini, Manuela; Minelli, Liliana; Fabiani, Roberto
2016-02-01
Colorectal cancer shows large incidence variations worldwide that have been attributed to different dietary factors. We conducted a meta-analysis on the relationship between garlic consumption and colorectal cancer risk. We systematically reviewed publications obtained by searching ISI Web of Knowledge, MEDLINE and EMBASE literature databases. We extracted the risk estimate of the highest and the lowest reported categories of intake from each study and conducted meta-analysis using a random-effects model. The pooled analysis of all fourteen studies, seven cohort and seven case-control, indicated that garlic consumption was not associated with colorectal cancer risk (OR=0·93; 95 % CI 0·82, 1·06, P=0·281; I 2=83·6 %, P≤0·001). Separate analyses on the basis of cancer sites and sex also revealed no statistically significant effects on cancer risk. However, when separately analysed on the basis of study type, we found that garlic was associated with an approximately 37 % reduction in colorectal cancer risk in the case-control studies (combined risk estimate=0·63, 95 % CI 0·48, 0·82, P=0·001; I 2=75·6 %, P≤0·001). Our results suggest that consumption of garlic is not associated with a reduced colorectal cancer risk. Further investigations are necessary to clarify the discrepancy between results obtained from different types of epidemiological studies.
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Kwon, Younghoon; Koene, Ryan J.; Kwon, Osung; Kealhofer, Jessica V.; Adabag, Selcuk; Duval, Sue
2017-01-01
Background Patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction are at increased risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is recommended to prevent sudden cardiac death in some of these patients. Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is highly prevalent in this population and may impact arrhythmogenicity. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies that assessed the impact of SDB on ICD therapy. Methods and Results Relevant prospective studies were identified in the Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases. Weighted risk ratios of the association between SDB and appropriate ICD therapies were estimated using random effects meta-analysis. Nine prospective cohort studies (n=1274) were included in this analysis. SDB was present in 52% of the participants. SDB was associated with a 55% higher risk of appropriate ICD therapies (45% versus 28%; risk ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.32–1.83). In a subgroup analysis based on the subtypes of SDB, the risk was higher in both central (risk ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–2.02) and obstructive (risk ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–2.03) sleep apnea. Conclusions SDB is associated with an increased risk of appropriate ICD therapy in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. PMID:28213507
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Milk, yogurt, and lactose intake and ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis.
Liu, Jing; Tang, Wenru; Sang, Lei; Dai, Xiaoli; Wei, Danping; Luo, Ying; Zhang, Jihong
2015-01-01
Inconclusive information for the role of dairy food intake in relation to ovarian cancer risk may associate with adverse effects of lactose, which has been hypothesized to increase gonadotropin levels in animal models and ecological studies. Up to now, several studies have indicated the association between dairy food intake and risk of ovarian cancer, but no identified founding was reported. We performed this meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of the association between dairy food intake and ovarian cancer risk. Using the data from 19 available publications, we examined dairy food including low-fat/skim milk, whole milk, yogurt and lactose in relation to risk of ovarian cancer by meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to assess the association. We observed a slightly increased risk of ovarian cancer with high intake of whole milk, but has no statistical significance (OR = 1.228, 95% CI = 1.031-1.464, P = 0.022). The results of other milk models did not provide evidence of positive association with ovarian cancer risk. This meta-analysis suggests that low-fat/skim milk, whole milk, yogurt and lactose intake has no associated with increased risk of ovarian cancer. Further studies with larger participants worldwide are needed to validate the association between dairy food intake and ovarian cancer.
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Kakavandi, Nader Rahimi; Hasanvand, Amin; Ghazi-Khansari, Mahmoud; Sezavar, Ahmad Habibian; Nabizadeh, Hassan; Parohan, Mohammad
2018-05-12
Despite growing evidence for the potential teratogenicity of nitrate, knowledge about the dose-response relationship of dietary nitrate intake and risk of specific birth defects such as neural tube defects (NTDs) is limited. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to synthesize the knowledge about the dose-response relation between maternal dietary nitrate intake and the risk of NTDs. We conducted a systematic search in PubMed, ISI Web of Science and Scopus up to February 2018 for observational studies. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a random-effects model for highest versus lowest intake categories. The linear and non-linear relationships between nitrate intake and risk of NTDs were also investigated. Overall, 5 studies were included in the meta-analyses. No association was observed between nitrate intake and NTDs risk in high versus low intake (RR: 1.33; 95% CI: 0.89-1.99, p = 0.158) and linear dose-response (RR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.99-1.07, p = 0.141) meta-analysis. However, there were positive relationships between nitrate intake and risk of NTDs in non-linear (p non-linearity <0.05) model. Findings from this dose-response meta-analysis indicate that maternal nitrate intake higher than ∼3 mg/day is positively associated with NTDs risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Liu, Renzhi; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Zhijiao; Borthwick, Alistair; Zhang, Ke
2015-01-01
Over the past half century, a surprising number of major pollution incidents occurred due to tailings dam failures. Most previous studies of such incidents comprised forensic analyses of environmental impacts after a tailings dam failure, with few considering the combined pollution risk before incidents occur at a watershed-scale. We therefore propose Watershed-scale Tailings-pond Pollution Risk Analysis (WTPRA), designed for multiple mine tailings ponds, stemming from previous watershed-scale accidental pollution risk assessments. Transferred and combined risk is embedded using risk rankings of multiple routes of the “source-pathway-target” in the WTPRA. The previous approach is modified using multi-criteria analysis, dam failure models, and instantaneous water quality models, which are modified for application to multiple tailings ponds. The study area covers the basin of Gutanting Reservoir (the largest backup drinking water source for Beijing) in Zhangjiakou City, where many mine tailings ponds are located. The resultant map shows that risk is higher downstream of Gutanting Reservoir and in its two tributary basins (i.e., Qingshui River and Longyang River). Conversely, risk is lower in the midstream and upstream reaches. The analysis also indicates that the most hazardous mine tailings ponds are located in Chongli and Xuanhua, and that Guanting Reservoir is the most vulnerable receptor. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed to validate the robustness of the WTPRA method. PMID:26633450
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Chen, Liangyong
2015-01-01
The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior. PMID:26526570
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Chen, Liangyong; Ma, Zujun
2015-01-01
The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-06-17
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Mango Fruit From Pakistan... risks associated with the importation of fresh mango fruit from Pakistan into the continental United... commercial consignment. APHIS received a request from the Government of Pakistan to allow the importation of...
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Introduction to Political Risk Analysis. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-24.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Coplin, William D.; O'Leary, Michael K.
This package introduces college students to the kind of analysis that multinational corporations undertake to assess risks to their business operations due to political and economic conditions. Designed to be completed in 3 weeks, the four exercises enable students to (1) identify the major sources of political risk; (2) determine what social,…
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-04-18
... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2011-0072] Plants for Planting Whose Importation Is Not Authorized Pending Pest Risk Analysis; Notice of Addition of Taxa of Plants for Planting To List of Taxa Whose Importation Is Not Authorized Pending Pest Risk...
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The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework is implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the ...
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The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework was implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the...
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2013-01-01
Background This study aimed to perform a structural analysis of determinants of risk of critical incidents in care for women with a low risk profile at the start of pregnancy with a view on improving patient safety. Methods We included 71 critical incidents in primary midwifery care and subsequent hospital care in case of referral after 36 weeks of pregnancy that were related to substandard care and for that reason were reported to the Health Care Inspectorate in The Netherlands in 36 months (n = 357). We performed a case-by-case analysis, using a previously validated instrument which covered five broad domains: healthcare organization, communication between healthcare providers, patient risk factors, clinical management, and clinical outcomes. Results Determinants that were associated with risk concerned healthcare organization (n = 20 incidents), communication about treatment procedures (n = 39), referral processes (n = 19), risk assessment by telephone triage (n = 10), and clinical management in an out of hours setting (n = 19). The 71 critical incidents included three cases of maternal death, eight cases of severe maternal morbidity, 42 perinatal deaths and 12 critical incidents with severe morbidity for the child. Suboptimal prenatal risk assessment, a delay in availability of health care providers in urgent situations, miscommunication about treatment between care providers, and miscommunication with patients in situations with a language barrier were associated with safety risks. Conclusions Systematic analysis of critical incidents improves insight in determinants of safety risk. The wide variety of determinants of risk of critical incidents implies that there is no single intervention to improve patient safety in the care for pregnant women with initially a low risk profile. PMID:24286376
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The Effect of Vitamin A on Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies
Zhang, Xinge; Zhang, Rui; Wang, Yueqiao; Yan, Hanyi; Wu, Yingru; Tan, Anran; Fu, Jialin; Shen, Ziqiong; Qin, Guiyu; Li, Rui; Chen, Guoxun
2017-01-01
This meta-analysis evaluated the influence of dietary intake and blood level of vitamin A (total vitamin A, retinol or β-carotene) on total and hip fracture risk. Cohort studies published before July 2017 were selected through English-language literature searches in several databases. Relative risk (RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to evaluate the risk. Heterogeneity was checked by Chi-square and I2 test. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were also performed. For the association between retinol intake and total fracture risk, we performed subgroup analysis by sex, region, case ascertainment, education level, age at menopause and vitamin D intake. R software was used to complete all statistical analyses. A total of 319,077 participants over the age of 20 years were included. Higher dietary intake of retinol and total vitamin A may slightly decrease total fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 0.95 (0.91, 1.00) and 0.94 (0.88, 0.99), respectively), and increase hip fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.40 (1.02, 1.91) and 1.29 (1.06, 1.57), respectively). Lower blood level of retinol may slightly increase total fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.11 (0.94, 1.30)) and hip fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.27 (1.05, 1.53)). In addition, higher β-carotene intake was weakly associated with the increased risk of total fracture (RR with 95% CI: 1.07 (0.97, 1.17)). Our data suggest that vitamin A intake and level may differentially influence the risks of total and hip fractures. Clinical trials are warranted to confirm these results and assess the clinical applicability. PMID:28891953
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Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.
Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich
2017-09-06
Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.
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A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.
Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta
2015-09-15
In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Reade, Michael C; Delaney, Anthony; Bailey, Michael J; Angus, Derek C
2008-01-01
Meta-analysis can be a powerful tool for demonstrating the applicability of a concept beyond the context of individual clinical trials and observational studies, including exploration of effects across different subgroups. Meta-analysis avoids Simpson's paradox, in which a consistent effect in constituent trials is reversed when results are simply pooled. Meta-analysis in critical care medicine is made more complicated, however, by the heterogeneous nature of critically ill patients and the contexts within which they are treated. Failure to properly adjust for this heterogeneity risks missing important subgroup effects in, for example, the interaction of treatment with varying levels of baseline risk. When subgroups are defined by characteristics that vary within constituent trials (such as age) rather than features constant within each trial (such as drug dose), there is the additional risk of incorrect conclusions due to the ecological fallacy. The present review explains these problems and the strategies by which they are overcome. PMID:18671838
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Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan
2016-07-01
Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D
2015-03-01
Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.
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Saneei, Parvane; Willett, Walter; Esmaillzadeh, Ahmad
2015-01-01
Background: These findings from several observational studies, investigated the association between red meat consumption and gliomas, were inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies to summarize available date on the relation between meat intake and risk of glioma. Materials and Methods: A systematic literature search of relevant reports published until May 2014 of the PubMed/Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Excerpta Medica database, Ovid database, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases was conducted. From 723 articles yielded in the preliminary literature search, data from eighteen publications (14 case-control, three cohort, and one nested case-control study) on unprocessed red meat, processed meat, and/or total red meat consumption in relation to glioma in adults were included in the analysis. Quality assessment of studies was performed. Random effects model was used to conduct the meta-analysis. Results: We found a positive significant association between unprocessed red meat intake and risk of glioma (relative risk [RR] = 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.58) after excluding three studies with uncertain type of brain cancer. This analysis included only one cohort study which revealed no relation between unprocessed red meat intake and glioma (RR = 1.75; 95% CI: 0.35-8.77). Consumption of processed meats was not related to increased risk of glioma in population-based case-control studies (RR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.05-1.51) and reduced risk in hospital-based case-controls (RR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.65-0.97). No significant association was seen between processed red meat intake and risk of glioma in cohort studies (RR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.84-1.37). Total red meat consumption was not associated with risk of adult glioma in case-control or cohort studies. Conclusion: In this meta-analysis of 18 observational studies, we found a modest positive association between unprocessed red meat intake and risk of gliomas based almost entirely on case-control studies. Processed red meat was overall not associated with risk of gliomas in case-control or cohort studies. PMID:26600837
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Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd
2017-02-01
Single-visit root canal treatment has some advantages over conventional multivisit treatment, but might increase the risk of complications. We systematically evaluated the risk of complications after single-visit or multiple-visit root canal treatment using meta-analysis and trial-sequential analysis. Controlled trials comparing single-visit versus multiple-visit root canal treatment of permanent teeth were included. Trials needed to assess the risk of long-term complications (pain, infection, new/persisting/increasing periapical lesions ≥1 year after treatment), short-term pain or flare-up (acute exacerbation of initiation or continuation of root canal treatment). Electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central) were screened, random-effects meta-analyses performed and trial-sequential analysis used to control for risk of random errors. Evidence was graded according to GRADE. 29 trials (4341 patients) were included, all but 6 showing high risk of bias. Based on 10 trials (1257 teeth), risk of complications was not significantly different in single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (risk ratio (RR) 1.00 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.35); weak evidence). Based on 20 studies (3008 teeth), risk of pain did not significantly differ between treatments (RR 0.99 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.30); moderate evidence). Risk of flare-up was recorded by 8 studies (1110 teeth) and was significantly higher after single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (RR 2.13 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.89); very weak evidence). Trial-sequential analysis revealed that firm evidence for benefit, harm or futility was not reached for any of the outcomes. There is insufficient evidence to rule out whether important differences between both strategies exist. Dentists can provide root canal treatment in 1 or multiple visits. Given the possibly increased risk of flare-ups, multiple-visit treatment might be preferred for certain teeth (eg, those with periapical lesions). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
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Jiang, Xian; Huang, Jiang; Song, Daqiang; Deng, Ru; Wei, Jicheng; Zhang, Zhuo
2017-01-01
Background: Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables has been shown to be associated with a reduced risk of cognitive impairment and dementia in many epidemiological studies. The purpose of this study was to assess the strength of this association in a meta-analysis. Methods: We identified relevant studies by searching Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library electronic databases (from 1970 to January 2016). Study were included if they reported relative risks and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of cognitive impairment and dementia with respect to frequency of fruit and vegetable intake. Results: Nine studies (five cohort studies and four cross-sectional studies) met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. There were a total of 31,104 participants and 4,583 incident cases of cognitive impairment and dementia. The meta-analysis showed that an increased consumption of fruit and vegetables was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cognitive impairment and dementia (OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.71–0.89). Subgroup analysis indicated this inverse association was only found among participants with mean age over 65 years and combined sexes. Dose–response meta-analysis showed that an increment of 100 g per day of fruit and vegetable consumption was related to an approximately 13% (OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.77–0.99) reduction in cognitive impairment and dementia risk. There was no potential publication bias in the meta-analysis and the dose–response meta-analysis. Conclusion: The increased consumption of fruit and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of cognitive impairment and dementia. PMID:28223933
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Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pei, Wei; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Dong; Li, Tian-xiao; Cheng, Kun; Cui, Song
2017-06-01
Droughts are natural disasters that pose significant threats to agricultural production as well as living conditions, and a spatial-temporal difference analysis of agricultural drought risk can help determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the drought risk within a region. Moreover, this type of analysis can provide a theoretical basis for the identification, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. In this study, the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points were based on research by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans on Computer 23:881-890, 1974). In this work, high-dimensional samples were clustered by cluster analysis. The clustering results were represented by the clustering matrix, which determined the local density in the projection index. This method avoids the problem of determining a cutoff radius. An improved projection pursuit model is proposed that combines cluster analysis and the projection pursuit model, which offer advantages for classification and assessment, respectively. The improved model was applied to analyze the agricultural drought risk of 13 cities in Heilongjiang Province over 6 years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014). The risk of an agricultural drought disaster was characterized by 14 indicators and the following four aspects: hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and resistance capacity. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The spatial distribution results indicated that Suihua, Qigihar, Daqing, Harbin, and Jiamusi are located in high-risk areas, Daxing'anling and Yichun are located in low-risk areas, and the differences among the regions were primarily caused by the aspects exposure and resistance capacity. The temporal variation results indicated that the risk of agricultural drought in most areas presented an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. A higher value for the exposure aspect increased the risk of drought, whereas a higher value for the resistance capacity aspect reduced the risk of drought. Over the long term, the exposure level of the region presented limited increases, whereas the resistance capacity presented considerable increases. Therefore, the risk of agricultural drought in Heilongjiang Province will continue to exhibit a decreasing trend.
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Avaliani, S L; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Mishina, A L
2014-01-01
The lack of adequate legislative and regulatory framework for ensuring minimization of the health risks in the field of environmental protection is the obstacle for the application of the risk analysis methodology as a leading tool for administrative activity in Russia. "Principles of the state policy in the sphere of ensuring chemical and biological safety of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and beyond", approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 01 November 2013, No PR-25 73, are aimed at the legal support for the health risk analysis methodology. In the article there have been supposed the main stages of the operative control of the environmental quality, which lead to the reduction of the health risk to the acceptable level. The further improvement of the health risk analysis methodology in Russia should contribute to the implementation of the state policy in the sphere of chemical and biological safety through the introduction of complex measures on neutralization of chemical and biological threats to the human health and the environment, as well as evaluation of the economic effectiveness of these measures. The primary step should be the legislative securing of the quantitative value for the term: "acceptable risk".
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.
2012-04-01
Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.
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Dietary and circulating lycopene and stroke risk: a meta-analysis of prospective studies
LI, Xinli; XU, Jiuhong
2014-01-01
Epidemiological studies support a protective role of lycopene against stroke occurrence or mortality, but the results have been conflicting. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between dietary or circulating lycopene and stroke risk (including stroke occurrence or mortality). Relevant papers were collected by screening the PubMed database through October 2013. Only prospective studies providing relative risk estimates with 95% confidence intervals for the association between lycopene and stroke were included. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled estimate. Subgroup analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various factors on the final results. The pooled analysis of seven prospective studies, with 116,127 participants and 1,989 cases, demonstrated that lycopene decreased stroke risk by 19.3% (RR = 0.807, 95% CI = 0.680–0.957) after adjusting for confounding factors. No heterogeneity was observed (p = 0.234, I2 = 25.5%). Circulating lycopene, not dietary lycopene, was associated with a statistically significant decrease in stroke risk (RR = 0.693, 95% CI = 0.503–0.954). Lycopene could protect European, or males against stroke risk. Duration of follow-up had no effect on the final results. There was no evidence of publication bias. Lycopene, especially circulating lycopene, is negatively associated with stroke risk. PMID:24848940
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Salari-Moghaddam, Asma; Milajerdi, Alireza; Larijani, Bagher; Esmaillzadeh, Ahmad
2018-06-01
No earlier study has summarized findings from previous publications on processed red meat intake and risk of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to examine the association between processed red meat intake and COPD risk. We searched in PubMed/Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Scopus, EMBASE and Google Scholar up to April 2018 to identify relevant studies. Prospective cohort studies that considered processed red meat as the exposure variable and COPD as the main outcome variable or as one of the outcomes were included in the systematic review. Publications in which hazard ratios (HRs) were reported as effect size were included in the meta-analysis. Finally, five cohort studies were considered in this systematic review and meta-analysis. In total, 289,952 participants, including 8338 subjects with COPD, aged ≥27 years were included in the meta-analysis. These studies were from Sweden and the US. Linear dose response meta-analysis revealed that each 50 gr/week increase in processed red meat intake was associated with 8% higher risk of COPD (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.13). There was an evidence of non-linear association between processed red meat intake and risk of COPD (P < 0.001). In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we found a significant positive association between processed red meat intake and risk of COPD. CRD42017077971. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.
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Dietary Inflammatory Potential Score and Risk of Breast Cancer: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
Zahedi, Hoda; Djalalinia, Shirin; Sadeghi, Omid; Asayesh, Hamid; Noroozi, Mehdi; Gorabi, Armita Mahdavi; Mohammadi, Rasool; Qorbani, Mostafa
2018-02-07
Several studies have been conducted on the relationship between dietary inflammatory potential (DIP) and breast cancer. However, the findings are conflicting. This systematic review and meta-analysis summarizes the findings on the association between DIP and the risk of breast cancer. We used relevant keywords and searched online international electronic databases, including PubMed and NLM Gateway (for Medline), Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), and Scopus for articles published through February 2017. All cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies were included in this meta-analysis. Meta-analysis was performed using the random effects meta-analysis method to address heterogeneity among studies. Findings were analyzed statistically. Nine studies were included in the present systematic review and meta-analysis. The total sample size of these studies was 296,102, and the number of participants varied from 1453 to 122,788. The random effects meta-analysis showed a positive and significant association between DIP and the risk of breast cancer (pooled odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.27). The pooled effect size was not statistically significant because of the type of studies, including cohort (pooled relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.10) and case-control (pooled odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-2.37) studies. We found a significant and positive association between higher DIP score and risk of breast cancer. Modifying inflammatory characteristics of diet can substantially reduce the risk of breast cancer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Decreasing the Risk of Adopting New Interactive Instructional Delivery Technologies.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Dennis, Verl E.
1993-01-01
Discusses new interactive training technologies; considers risks of adopting a new technology; and presents the conceptual framework of technology life cycle analysis that provides timing information for the adoption of a new technology that should be used in addition to cost-benefit analysis and technical analysis. (LRW)
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The Effects of Variability and Risk in Selection Utility Analysis: An Empirical Comparison.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Rich, Joseph R.; Boudreau, John W.
1987-01-01
Investigated utility estimate variability for the selection utility of using the Programmer Aptitude Test to select computer programmers. Comparison of Monte Carlo results to other risk assessment approaches (sensitivity analysis, break-even analysis, algebraic derivation of the distribtion) suggests that distribution information provided by Monte…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Effendi, Hefni; Wardiatno, Yusli; Kawaroe, Mujizat; Mursalin; Fauzia Lestari, Dea
2017-01-01
The surface sediments were identified from west part of Java Sea to evaluate spatial distribution and ecological risk potential of heavy metals (Hg, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni). The samples were taken from surface sediment (<0.5 m) in 26 m up to 80 m water depth with Eikman grab. The average material composition on sediment samples were clay (9.86%), sand (8.57%) and mud sand (81.57%). The analysis showed that Pb (11.2%), Cd (49.7%), and Ni (59.5%) exceeded of Probably Effect Level (PEL). Base on ecological risk analysis, {{Cd }}≤ft( {E_r^i:300.64} \\right) and {{Cr }}≤ft( {E_r^i:0.02} \\right) were categorized to high risk and low risk criteria. The ecological risk potential sequences of this study were Cd>Hg>Pb>Ni>Cu>As>Zn>Cr. Furthermore, the result of multivariate statistical analysis shows that correlation among heavy metals (As/Ni, Cd/Ni, and Cu/Zn) and heavy metals with Risk Index (Cd/Ri and Ni/Ri) had positive correlation in significance level p<0.05. Total variance of analysis factor was 80.04% and developed into 3 factors (eigenvalues >1). On the cluster analysis, Cd, Ni, Pb were identified as fairly high contaminations level (cluster 1), Hg as moderate contamination level (cluster 2) and Cu, Zn, Cr with lower contamination level (cluster 3).
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A Healthy Dietary Pattern Reduces Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Sun, Yanlai; Li, Zhenxiang; Li, Jianning; Li, Zengjun; Han, Jianjun
2016-03-04
Diet and nutrients play an important role in cancer development and progress; a healthy dietary pattern has been found to be associated with several types of cancer. However, the association between a healthy eating pattern and lung cancer risk is still unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate whether a healthy eating pattern might reduce lung cancer risk. We identified relevant studies from the PubMed and Embase databases up to October 2015, and the relative risks were extracted and combined by the fixed-effects model when no substantial heterogeneity was observed; otherwise, the random-effects model was employed. Subgroup and publication bias analyses were also performed. Finally, eight observational studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk of lung cancer for the highest vs. lowest category of healthy dietary pattern was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.75-0.86), and no significant heterogeneity was detected. The relative risks (RRs) for non-smokers, former smokers and current smokers were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.63-1.27), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62-0.89) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79-0.93), respectively. The results remained stable in subgroup analyses by other confounders and sensitivity analysis. The results of our meta-analysis suggest that a healthy dietary pattern is associated with a lower lung cancer risk, and they provide more beneficial evidence for changing the diet pattern in the general population.
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Song, Huihui; Yang, Lei; Jia, Chongqi
2017-05-01
Mounting evidence suggests that maternal vitamin D status during pregnancy may be associated with development of childhood asthma, but the results are still inconsistent. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed to quantitatively summarize evidence on the association of maternal vitamin D status during pregnancy with the risk of childhood asthma. A systematic search was conducted to identify all studies assessing the association of maternal 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) during pregnancy with risk of childhood asthma. The fixed or random-effect model was selected based on the heterogeneity test among studies. Nonlinear dose-response relationship was assessed by restricted cubic spline model. Fifteen prospective studies with 12 758 participants and 1795 cases were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk of childhood asthma comparing the highest versus lowest category of maternal 25(OH)D levels was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.75-1.02). For dose-response analysis, evidence of a U-shaped relationship was found between maternal 25(OH)D levels and risk of childhood asthma (P nonlinearity = 0.02), with the lowest risk at approximately 70 nmol/L of 25(OH)D. This dose-response meta-analysis suggested a U-shaped relationship between maternal blood 25(OH)D levels and risk of childhood asthma. Further studies are needed to confirm the association. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
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Expert systems in civil engineering
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kostem, C.N.; Maher, M.L.
1986-01-01
This book presents the papers given at a symposium on expert systems in civil engineering. Topics considered at the symposium included problem solving using expert system techniques, construction schedule analysis, decision making and risk analysis, seismic risk analysis systems, an expert system for inactive hazardous waste site characterization, an expert system for site selection, knowledge engineering, and knowledge-based expert systems in seismic analysis.
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Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP): Assessing Risk in Complex Environments
2005-09-01
5 1.7 Focus on Risk .................................................................................. 6 2 Defining Risk ...20 CMU/SEI-2005-TN-032 4.4 Extrinsic and Intrinsic Risk ............................................................. 21 5 Operational Risk in...Section 5 , "Operational Risk in Distributed Processes," we look at the characteristics of operational risk in processes where management control is
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Patil, Reshma S; Gothankar, Jayashree S
2016-04-01
The urban poor is a group that is known to be vulnerable to adoption of a more urbanized lifestyle that places them at a higher risk for diabetes. Individuals who are unaware of their disease status are more prone to micro- and macrovascular complications. Hence, it is necessary to detect this large pool of undiagnosed participants with diabetes and offer them early therapy. The aim of this study was to use the Indian Diabetes Risk Score, developed by the Madras Diabetes Research Foundation (MDRF-IDRS), to assess the prevalence of people at high risk for developing diabetes, and the correlation with known risk factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the field practice area of the urban health training centre of a private medical college in Pune, Maharashtra. A total of 425 participants aged 20 years and above were screened for risk factors, including age, waist circumference, family history of diabetes and physical activity. Random testing of the blood glucose level of participants with a high risk score was carried out using a glucometer. Statistical analysis of the data was performed by using the chi-squared test and logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of people at high risk of diabetes was 36.55%. Among high-risk participants on univariate analysis, primary education (P = 0.004), lower socioeconomic class (P = 0.002), less physical activity (P< 0.001) and high waist circumference (P < 0.001) were major contributing factors, while in the moderate-risk group, lower socioeconomic class and high waist circumference were the prominent risk factors for diabetes. Multivariate analysis showed that higher education, moderate to vigorous activity and high waist circumference were significantly associated with risk status. Out of 140 high-risk participants, 68 (49%) had a random capillary blood glucose level of 110 mg/dL or above. As the prevalence of people at high risk for diabetes was high, lifestyle changes and awareness regarding risk factors is needed to take control of the diabetes in the study population.
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Risk-Stratified Imputation in Survival Analysis
Kennedy, Richard E.; Adragni, Kofi P.; Tiwari, Hemant K.; Voeks, Jenifer H.; Brott, Thomas G.; Howard, George
2013-01-01
Background Censoring that is dependent on covariates associated with survival can arise in randomized trials due to changes in recruitment and eligibility criteria to minimize withdrawals, potentially leading to biased treatment effect estimates. Imputation approaches have been proposed to address censoring in survival analysis; and while these approaches may provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects, imputation of a large number of outcomes may over- or underestimate the associated variance based on the imputation pool selected. Purpose We propose an improved method, risk-stratified imputation, as an alternative to address withdrawal related to the risk of events in the context of time-to-event analyses. Methods Our algorithm performs imputation from a pool of replacement subjects with similar values of both treatment and covariate(s) of interest, that is, from a risk-stratified sample. This stratification prior to imputation addresses the requirement of time-to-event analysis that censored observations are representative of all other observations in the risk group with similar exposure variables. We compared our risk-stratified imputation to case deletion and bootstrap imputation in a simulated dataset in which the covariate of interest (study withdrawal) was related to treatment. A motivating example from a recent clinical trial is also presented to demonstrate the utility of our method. Results In our simulations, risk-stratified imputation gives estimates of treatment effect comparable to bootstrap and auxiliary variable imputation while avoiding inaccuracies of the latter two in estimating the associated variance. Similar results were obtained in analysis of clinical trial data. Limitations Risk-stratified imputation has little advantage over other imputation methods when covariates of interest are not related to treatment, although its performance is superior when covariates are related to treatment. Risk-stratified imputation is intended for categorical covariates, and may be sensitive to the width of the matching window if continuous covariates are used. Conclusions The use of the risk-stratified imputation should facilitate the analysis of many clinical trials, in which one group has a higher withdrawal rate that is related to treatment. PMID:23818434
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Bopanna, Sawan; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Kedia, Saurabh; Yajnik, Vijay; Ahuja, Vineet
2017-04-01
The increased risk of colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis is well known. The risk of sporadic colorectal cancer in Asian populations is considered low and risk estimates of colorectal cancer related to ulcerative colitis from Asia vary. This meta-analysis is an Asian perspective on the risk of colorectal cancer related to ulcerative colitis. We searched PubMed and Embase for terms related to colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis from inception to July 1, 2016. The search for published articles was done by country for all countries in Asia. We included studies with information on the prevalence and cumulative risk of colorectal cancer at various timepoints. A random-effects meta-analysis was done to calculate the pooled prevalence as well as a cumulative risk at 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years of disease. Our search identified 2575 articles; of which 44 were eligible for inclusion. Our analysis included a total of 31 287 patients with ulcerative colitis with a total of 293 reported colorectal cancers. Using pooled prevalence estimates from various studies, the overall prevalence was 0·85% (95% CI 0·65-1·04). The risks for colorectal cancer were 0·02% (95% CI 0·00-0·04) at 10 years, 4·81% (3·26-6·36) at 20 years, and 13·91% (7·09-20·72) at 30 years. Subgroup analysis by stratifying the studies according to region or period of the study did not reveal any significant differences. We found the risk of colorectal cancer in Asian patients with ulcerative colitis was similar to recent estimates in Europe and North America. Adherence to screening is therefore necessary. Larger population-based, prospective studies are required for better estimates of the risk. Indo-US Science and Technology Forum. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Bopanna, Sawan; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Kedia, Saurabh; Yajnik, Vijay; Ahuja, Vineet
2017-01-01
Summary Background The increased risk of colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis is well known. The risk of sporadic colorectal cancer in Asian populations is considered low and risk estimates of colorectal cancer related to ulcerative colitis from Asia vary. This meta-analysis is an Asian perspective on the risk of colorectal cancer related to ulcerative colitis. Methods We searched PubMed and Embase for terms related to colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis from inception to July 1, 2016. The search for published articles was done by country for all countries in Asia. We included studies with information on the prevalence and cumulative risk of colorectal cancer at various timepoints. A random-effects meta-analysis was done to calculate the pooled prevalence as well as a cumulative risk at 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years of disease. Findings Our search identified 2575 articles; of which 44 were eligible for inclusion. Our analysis included a total of 31 287 patients with ulcerative colitis with a total of 293 reported colorectal cancers. Using pooled prevalence estimates from various studies, the overall prevalence was 0·85% (95% CI 0·65–1·04). The risks for colorectal cancer were 0·02% (95% CI 0·00–0·04) at 10 years, 4·81% (3·26–6·36) at 20 years, and 13·91% (7·09–20·72) at 30 years. Subgroup analysis by stratifying the studies according to region or period of the study did not reveal any significant differences. Interpretation We found the risk of colorectal cancer in Asian patients with ulcerative colitis was similar to recent estimates in Europe and North America. Adherence to screening is therefore necessary. Larger population-based, prospective studies are required for better estimates of the risk. PMID:28404156
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On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk.
Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth
2015-12-01
In this article, we provide some reflections on how to define and understand the concept of terrorism risk in a professional risk assessment context. As a basis for this discussion we introduce a set of criteria that we believe should apply to any conceptualization of terrorism risk. These criteria are based on both criteria used in other areas of risk analysis and our experience with terrorism risk analysis. That is, these criteria offer our perspective. We show that several of the suggested perspectives and definitions have weaknesses in relation to these criteria. A main problem identified is the idea that terrorism risk can be conceptualized as a function of probability and consequence, not as a function of the interactions between adaptive individuals and organizations. We argue that perspectives based solely on probability and consequence should be used cautiously or not at all because they fail to reflect the essential features of the concept of terrorism risk, the threats and attacks, their consequences, and the uncertainties, all in the context of adaptation by the adversaries. These three elements should in our view constitute the main pillars of the terrorism risk concept. From this concept we can develop methods for assessing the risk by identifying a set of threats, attacks, and consequence measures associated with the possible outcome scenarios together with a description of the uncertainties and interactions between the adversaries. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.
Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R
2005-11-15
A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.
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Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bruno, Michael
GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historicalmore » data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.« less
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Use of antipsychotics increases the risk of fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Lee, S-H; Hsu, W-T; Lai, C-C; Esmaily-Fard, A; Tsai, Y-W; Chiu, C-C; Wang, J; Chang, S-S; Lee, C C
2017-04-01
Our systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies indicated that the use of antipsychotics was associated with a nearly 1.5-fold increase in the risk of fracture. First-generation antipsychotics (FGAs) appeared to carry a higher risk of fracture than second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs). The risk of fractures associated with the use of antipsychotic medications has inconsistent evidence between different drug classes. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate whether there is an association between the use of antipsychotic drugs and fractures. Searches were conducted through the PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify observational studies that had reported a quantitative estimate of the association between use of antipsychotics and fractures. The summary risk was derived from random effects meta-analysis. The search yielded 19 observational studies (n = 544,811 participants) with 80,835 fracture cases. Compared with nonuse, use of FGAs was associated with a significantly higher risk for hip fractures (OR 1.67, 95% CI, 1.45-1.93), and use of second generation antipsychotics (SGAs) was associated with an attenuated but still significant risk for hip fractures (OR 1.33, 95% CI, 1.11-1.58). The risk of fractures associated with individual classes of antipsychotic users was heterogeneous, and odds ratios ranged from 1.24 to 2.01. Chlorpromazine was associated with the highest risk (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.43-2.83), while Risperidone was associated with the lowest risk of fracture (OR 1.24, 95% CI 0.95-1.83). FGA users were at a higher risk of hip fracture than SGA users. Both FGAs and SGAs were associated with an increased risk of fractures, especially among the older population. Therefore, the benefit of the off-label use of antipsychotics in elderly patients should be weighed against any risks for fracture.
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Survivin -31 G/C polymorphism might contribute to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk: a meta-analysis.
Yao, Linhua; Hu, Yi; Deng, Zhongmin; Li, Jingjing
2015-01-01
Published data has shown inconsistent findings about the association of survivin -31 G/C polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). This meta-analysis quantitatively assesses the results from published studies to provide a more precise estimate of the association between survivin -31 G/C polymorphism as a possible predictor of the risk of CRC. We conducted a literature search in the PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases. Stata 12 software was used to calculate the pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) based on the available data from each article. Six studies including 1840 cases with CRC and 1804 controls were included in this study. Survivin -31 G/C polymorphism was associated with a significantly increased risk of CRC (OR = 1.78; 95% CI, 1.53-2.07; I(2) = 0%). In the race subgroup analysis, both Asians (OR = 1.72; 95% CI, 1.44-2.05; I(2) = 0%) and Caucasians (OR = 1.93; 95% CI, 1.46-2.55; I(2) = 0%) with survivin -31 G/C polymorphism had increased CRC risk. In the subgroup analysis according to site of CRC, survivin -31 G/C polymorphism was not associated with colon cancer risk (OR = 2.02; 95% CI, 0.79-5.22; I(2) = 82%). However, this polymorphism was significantly associated with rectum cancer risk (OR = 1.98; 95% CI, 1.42-2.74; I(2) = 0%). In the subgroup analysis by clinical stage, both early stage (I+II) and advanced stage (III+IV) were associated with survivin -31 G/C polymorphism (OR = 1.61; 95% CI, 1.20-2.16; I(2) = 0% and OR = 2.30; 95% CI, 1.70-3.13; I(2) = 0%, respectively). In the subgroup analysis by smoke status, both smokers and non-smokers with survivin -31 G/C polymorphism showed increased CRC risk (OR = 1.47; 95% CI, 1.01-2.13; I(2) = 60% and OR = 1.71; 95% CI, 1.28-2.30; I(2) = 0%, respectively). In the subgroup analysis by drink status, both drinkers and non-drinkers with survivin -31 G/C polymorphism showed increased CRC risk (OR = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.06-2.37; I(2) = 8% and OR = 1.61; 95% CI, 1.23-2.11; I(2) = 0%, respectively). In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggested that survivin -31 G/C polymorphism may be associated with the risk of CRC.
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Evaluation of rail test frequencies using risk analysis
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2009-03-03
Several industries now use risk analysis to develop : inspection programs to ensure acceptable mechanical integrity : and reliability. These industries include nuclear and electric : power generation, oil refining, gas processing, onshore and : offsh...
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Selenium Exposure and Cancer Risk: an Updated Meta-analysis and Meta-regression
Cai, Xianlei; Wang, Chen; Yu, Wanqi; Fan, Wenjie; Wang, Shan; Shen, Ning; Wu, Pengcheng; Li, Xiuyang; Wang, Fudi
2016-01-01
The objective of this study was to investigate the associations between selenium exposure and cancer risk. We identified 69 studies and applied meta-analysis, meta-regression and dose-response analysis to obtain available evidence. The results indicated that high selenium exposure had a protective effect on cancer risk (pooled OR = 0.78; 95%CI: 0.73–0.83). The results of linear and nonlinear dose-response analysis indicated that high serum/plasma selenium and toenail selenium had the efficacy on cancer prevention. However, we did not find a protective efficacy of selenium supplement. High selenium exposure may have different effects on specific types of cancer. It decreased the risk of breast cancer, lung cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, and prostate cancer, but it was not associated with colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, and skin cancer. PMID:26786590
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Ma, Qingtong; Qi, Can; Tie, Chong; Guo, Zhanjun
2013-11-10
Many studies have reported the role of xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD) with prostate cancer risk, but the results remained controversial. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship, a meta-analysis was performed. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to assess the association between XPD Asp312Asn and Lys751Gln polymorphisms and prostate cancer risk. A total of 8 studies including 2620 cases and 3225 controls described Asp312Asn genotypes, among which 10 articles involving 3230 cases and 3582 controls described Lys751Gln genotypes and were also involved in this meta-analysis. When all the eligible studies were pooled into this meta-analysis, a significant association between prostate cancer risk and XPD Asp312Asn polymorphism was found. For Asp312Asn polymorphism, in the stratified analysis by ethnicity and source of controls, prostate cancer risk was observed in co-dominant, dominant and recessive models, while no evidence of any associations of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with prostate cancer was found in the overall or subgroup analyses. Our meta-analysis supports that the XPD Asp312Asn polymorphism contributed to the risk of prostate cancer from currently available evidence. However, a study with a larger sample size is needed to further evaluate gene-environment interaction on XPD Asp312Asn and Lys751Gln polymorphisms and prostate cancer risk. © 2013.
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Oil-spill risk analysis: Outer continental shelf lease sale 144, Beaufort Sea. Final report
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Anderson, C.M.; Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.
1995-08-01
The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf lands in the Beaufort Sea for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. In evaluating the significance of accidental oil spills, it is important to remember that the occurrence of such spills is fundamentally probabilistic. This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for OCS Lease Sale 144, Beaufort Sea. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed leasemore » sale.« less
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Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation.
Gil, César; Rios Insua, David; Rios, Jesus
2016-04-01
Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) provides a framework to deal with risks originating from intentional actions of adversaries. We show how ARA may be used to allocate security resources in the protection of urban spaces. We take into account the spatial structure and consider both proactive and reactive measures, in that we aim at both trying to reduce criminality as well as recovering as best as possible from it, should it happen. We deal with the problem by deploying an ARA model over each spatial unit, coordinating the models through resource constraints, value aggregation, and proximity. We illustrate our approach with an example that uncovers several relevant policy issues. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Licensing Behavior Analysts: Risks and Alternatives
Green, Gina; Johnston, James M
2009-01-01
Under certain conditions, obtaining state laws to license practitioners of behavior analysis might be feasible and could produce benefits for practitioners and consumers. Those conditions are not yet in place in most states, however, and pursuing licensure prematurely carries substantial risks for the entire field. We describe the most serious risks and the conditions that make it more or less likely that licensure initiatives will succeed. Finally, we recommend strategies for securing recognition of practitioners of behavior analysis in laws, regulations, and policies that can minimize risks. PMID:22477698
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Fried food and prostate cancer risk: systematic review and meta-analysis.
Lippi, Giuseppe; Mattiuzzi, Camilla
2015-01-01
We performed systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies that investigated the potential association between fried food consumption and prostate cancer risk. Four case-control studies were finally selected for this systematic literature review, totaling 2579 cancer patients and 2277 matched controls. In two of these studies, the larger intake of fried food was associated with a 1.3- to 2.3-fold increased risk of prostate cancer, no significant association was found in another, whereas an inverse relationship was observed in the remaining. The meta-analysis of published data showed that larger intake of fried food was associated with a 35% (95% CI 17-57%) increased risk of prostate cancer. The results of this systematic literature review support the notion that larger intake of fried foods may have a role in increasing the risk of prostate cancer.
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Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling
2017-03-01
The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.
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High prevalence of suicide risk in people living with HIV: who is at higher risk?
Passos, Susane Müller Klug; Souza, Luciano Dias de Mattos; Spessato, Bárbara Coiro
2014-01-01
A cross-sectional study was developed to evaluate suicide risk and associated factors in HIV/AIDS patients at a regional reference center for the treatment of HIV/AIDS in southern Brazil. We assessed 211 patients in regard to suicide risk, clinical and sociodemographic characteristics, drug use, depression, and anxiety. Suicide risk was assessed with Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview, Module C. Multivariate analysis was performed using Poisson regression. Of the total sample, 34.1% were at risk of suicide. In the multivariate analysis, the following variables were independently associated with suicide risk: female gender; age up to 47 years; unemployment; indicative of anxiety; indicative of depression; and abuse or addiction on psychoactive substances. Suicide risk is high in this population. Psychosocial factors should be included in the physical and clinical evaluation, given their strong association with suicide risk.
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Sarkar, Sahotra; Strutz, Stavana E; Frank, David M; Rivaldi, Chissa-Louise; Sissel, Blake; Sánchez-Cordero, Victor
2010-10-05
Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a serious public health concern in many areas of Latin America, including México. It is also endemic in Texas with an autochthonous canine cycle, abundant vectors (Triatoma species) in many counties, and established domestic and peridomestic cycles which make competent reservoirs available throughout the state. Yet, Chagas disease is not reportable in Texas, blood donor screening is not mandatory, and the serological profiles of human and canine populations remain unknown. The purpose of this analysis was to provide a formal risk assessment, including risk maps, which recommends the removal of these lacunae. The spatial relative risk of the establishment of autochthonous Chagas disease cycles in Texas was assessed using a five-stage analysis. 1. Ecological risk for Chagas disease was established at a fine spatial resolution using a maximum entropy algorithm that takes as input occurrence points of vectors and environmental layers. The analysis was restricted to triatomine vector species for which new data were generated through field collection and through collation of post-1960 museum records in both México and the United States with sufficiently low georeferenced error to be admissible given the spatial resolution of the analysis (1 arc-minute). The new data extended the distribution of vector species to 10 new Texas counties. The models predicted that Triatoma gerstaeckeri has a large region of contiguous suitable habitat in the southern United States and México, T. lecticularia has a diffuse suitable habitat distribution along both coasts of the same region, and T. sanguisuga has a disjoint suitable habitat distribution along the coasts of the United States. The ecological risk is highest in south Texas. 2. Incidence-based relative risk was computed at the county level using the Bayesian Besag-York-Mollié model and post-1960 T. cruzi incidence data. This risk is concentrated in south Texas. 3. The ecological and incidence-based risks were analyzed together in a multi-criteria dominance analysis of all counties and those counties in which there were as yet no reports of parasite incidence. Both analyses picked out counties in south Texas as those at highest risk. 4. As an alternative to the multi-criteria analysis, the ecological and incidence-based risks were compounded in a multiplicative composite risk model. Counties in south Texas emerged as those with the highest risk. 5. Risk as the relative expected exposure rate was computed using a multiplicative model for the composite risk and a scaled population county map for Texas. Counties with highest risk were those in south Texas and a few counties with high human populations in north, east, and central Texas showing that, though Chagas disease risk is concentrated in south Texas, it is not restricted to it. For all of Texas, Chagas disease should be designated as reportable, as it is in Arizona and Massachusetts. At least for south Texas, lower than N, blood donor screening should be mandatory, and the serological profiles of human and canine populations should be established. It is also recommended that a joint initiative be undertaken by the United States and México to combat Chagas disease in the trans-border region. The methodology developed for this analysis can be easily exported to other geographical and disease contexts in which risk assessment is of potential value.
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Alcohol Intake and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies
Hong, Seung-Hee; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Kim, Hyeon Suk
2017-01-01
Purpose The purpose of this study was to assess whether alcohol intake is associated with the risk of thyroid cancer by a meta-analysis of observational studies. Materials and Methods We searched PubMed and EMBASE in June of 2015 to locate eligible studies. We included observational studies such as cross-sectional studies, case-control studies, and cohort studies reporting odd ratios (ORs) or relative risk (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results We included 33 observational studies with two cross-sectional studies, 20 case-controls studies, and 11 cohort studies, which involved a total of 7,725 thyroid cancer patients and 3,113,679 participants without thyroid cancer in the final analysis. In the fixed-effect model meta-analysis of all 33 studies, we found that alcohol intake was consistently associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer (OR or RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.83; I2=38.6%). In the subgroup meta-analysis by type of study, alcohol intake also decreased the risk of thyroid cancer in both case-control studies (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.92; I2=29.5%; n=20) and cohort studies (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.82; I2=0%; n=11). Moreover, subgroup meta-analyses by type of thyroid cancer, gender, amount of alcohol consumed, and methodological quality of study showed that alcohol intake was significantly associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer. Conclusion The current meta-analysis of observational studies found that, unlike most of other types of cancer, alcohol intake decreased the risk of thyroid cancer. PMID:27456949
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Naing, Cho; Aung, Kyan; Lai, Pei Kuan; Mak, Joon Wah
2017-01-05
Human chromosomes are capped and stabilized by telomeres. Telomere length regulates a 'cellular mitotic clock' that defines the number of cell divisions and hence, cellular life span. This study aimed to synthesize the evidence on the association between peripheral blood leucocytes (PBL) telomere length and the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We searched relevant studies in electronic databases. When two or more observational studies reported the same outcome measures, we performed pooled analysis. All the analyses were performed on PBL using PCR. The odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to assess the strength of association. Seven studies (with 8 datasets) were included in this meta-analysis; 3 prospective studies, 3 retrospective studies and 1 study with a separate prospective and retrospective designs. The pooled analysis of 4 prospective studies (summary OR 1.01, 95% CI: 0.77-1.34, I 2 :30%) and 4 retrospective studies (summary OR 1.65, 95% CI: 0.96-2.83, I 2 :96%) showed no relationship between PBL telomere length and the CRC risk. A subgroup analysis of 2 prospective studies exclusively on females also showed no association between PBL telomere length and the CRC risk (summary OR, 1.17, 95% CI:0.72-1.91, I 2 :57%). The current analysis is insufficient to provide evidence on the relationship between PBL telomere length and the risk of CRC. Findings suggest that there may be a complex relationship between PBL telomere length and the CRC risk or discrepancy between genetics, age of patients and clinical studies. Future well powered, large prospective studies on the relationship between telomere length and the risk of CRC, and the investigations of the biologic mechanisms are recommended.
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Xie, Zhiyi; Hu, Xin; Zan, Xin; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao
2017-10-01
Hydrocephalus is a well-recognized complication after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). This study aimed to identify predictors for shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (SDHC) after aSAH via a systematic review and meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted using the Embase, MEDLINE, and Web of Science databases for studies pertaining to aSAH and SDHC. Risk factors were assessed by meta-analysis when they were reported by at least 2 studies. The results were presented as odd ratios or risk ratios according to the study design with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Twenty-five studies were included. In primary analysis of 14 potential risk factors, 12 were identified as predictors of SDHC after aSAH including age ≥50 years, female gender, high Hunt-Hess grade, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤8, Fisher grade ≥3, acute hydrocephalus, external ventricular drainage insertion, intraventricular hemorrhage, postcirculation aneurysm, anterior communicating artery aneurysm, meningitis, and rebleeding. The meta-analysis based on cohort studies found a significantly increased risk for SDHC in patients with aSAH treated by coiling (risk ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29), while the meta-analysis based on case-controlled studies failed to replicate this finding (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.95-1.71). Several new predictors of SDHC after aSAH were identified that may assist with the early recognition and prevention of SDHC. The controversial evidence found in this study was insufficient to support the potential of neurosurgical clipping for reducing the risk of shunt dependency. Further well-designed studies are warranted to explore the effect of treatment modality on SDHC risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-02-09
...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Male Summer Squash Flowers... evaluates the risks associated with the importation of fresh male summer squash flowers from Israel into the... summer squash flowers, Cucurbita pepo L. into the continental United States. Currently, fresh male summer...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.
2018-01-01
Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…
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The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.
2006-01-01
This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.
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Risk Based Reliability Centered Maintenance of DOD Fire Protection Systems
1999-01-01
2.2.3 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis ( FMEA )............................ 2.2.4 Failure Mode Risk Characterization...Step 2 - System functions and functional failures definition Step 3 - Failure mode and effect analysis ( FMEA ) Step 4 - Failure mode risk...system). The Interface Location column identifies the location where the FMEA of the fire protection system began or stopped. For example, for the fire
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
None
Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.
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Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.
Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K
2000-08-01
Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful.
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How to make the most of failure mode and effect analysis.
Stalhandske, Erik; DeRosier, Joseph; Patail, Bryanne; Gosbee, John
2003-01-01
Current accreditation standards issued by the Joint Commission for the Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) require hospitals to carry out a proactive risk assessment on at least 1 high-risk activity each year for each accredited program. Because hospital risk managers and patient safety managers generally do not have the knowledge or level of comfort for conducting a proactive risk assessment, they will appreciate the expertise offered by biomedical equipment technicians (BMETs), occupational safety and health professionals, and others. The skills that have been developed by BMETs and others while conducting job safety analyses or failure mode effect analysis can now be applied to a health care proactive analysis. This article touches on the Health Care Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) model that the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) National Center for Patient Safety developed for proactive risk assessment within the health care community. The goal of this article is to enlighten BMETs and others on the growth of proactive risk assessment within health care and also on the support documents and materials produced by the VA. For additional information on HFMEA, visit the VA website at www.patientsafety.gov/HFMEA.html.
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[Risk factors in the living environment of early spontaneous abortion pregnant women].
Liu, Xin-yan; Bian, Xu-ming; Han, Jing-xiu; Cao, Zhao-jin; Fan, Guang-sheng; Zhang, Chao; Zhang, Wen-li; Zhang, Shu-zhen; Sun, Xiao-guang
2007-10-01
To study the relationship between early spontaneous abortion and living environment, and explore the risk factors of spontaneous abortion. We conducted analysis based on the interview of 200 spontaneous abortion cases and the matched control (age +/- 2 years) by using multifactor Logistic regression analysis. The proportions of watching TV > or =10 hours/week, operating computer > or =45 hours/week, using copycat, microwave oven and mobile phone, electromagnetism equipment near the dwell or work place, e. g. switch room < or =50 m and launching tower < or =500 m in the cases are significantly higher than those in the controls in single factor analysis (all P < 0.05). After adjusted the effect of other risk factors by multifactor analysis, using microwave oven and mobile phone, contacting abnormal smell of fitment material > or =3 months, having emotional stress during the first term of pregnancy and spontaneous abortion history were significantly associated with risk of spontaneous abortion. The odds ratios of these risk factors were 2.23 and 4.63, respectively. Using microwave oven and mobile phone, contacting abnormal smell of fitment material > or =3 months, having emotional stress during the first term of pregnancy, and spontaneous abortion history are risk factors of early spontaneous abortion.
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Ganga, G M D; Esposto, K F; Braatz, D
2012-01-01
The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.
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Dietary fiber intake reduces risk for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer.
Sun, Lingli; Zhang, Zhizhong; Xu, Jian; Xu, Gelin; Liu, Xinfeng
2017-09-02
Observational studies suggest an association between dietary fiber intake and risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer. However, the results are inconsistent. To conduct a meta-analysis of observational studies to assess this association. All eligible studies were identified by electronic searches in PubMed and Embase through February 2015. Dose-response, subgroup, sensitivity, and publication bias analyses were performed. A total of 15 studies involving 16,885 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled odds ratio for the highest compared with the lowest dietary fiber intake was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.43-0.64). Stratified analyses for tumor subtype, study design, geographic location, fiber type, publication year, total sample size, and quality score yielded consistent results. Dose-response analysis indicated that a 10-g/d increment in dietary fiber intake was associated with a 31% reduction in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer risk. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies with control for conventional risk factors produced similar results, and omission of any single study had little effect on the overall risk estimate. Our findings indicate that dietary fiber intake is inversely associated with risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal cancer. Further large prospective studies are warranted.
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Lycopene Consumption and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.
Wang, Xin; Yang, Hui-Hui; Liu, Yan; Zhou, Quan; Chen, Zi-Hua
2016-10-01
A number of epidemiological studies have explored the association between lycopene or lycopene-rich food intake and the risk of colorectal cancer, but the results of these studies have not been consistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published in the PubMed and EMBASE databases to quantitatively assess the association between lycopene consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 15 studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the summary relative risk (RR) for highest versus lowest category indicated no significant association between lycopene consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer [RR = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-1.10]. However, a significant inverse association was observed between lycopene consumption and the site of cancer in the colon (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.81-0.96). We also found that the incidence of colon cancer and lycopene intake did not exhibit dose-response relationships. The Grades of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) quality in our study was very low. In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicates that lycopene consumption is not associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. Further research will be needed in this area to provide conclusive evidence.
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A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.
Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang
2012-12-01
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.
2013-08-01
Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.
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Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-Wen
2016-01-25
The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hughes, Allen A.
1994-12-01
Public safety can be enhanced through the development of a comprehensive medical device risk management. This can be accomplished through case studies using a framework that incorporates cost-benefit analysis in the evaluation of risk management attributes. This paper presents a framework for evaluating the risk management system for regulatory Class III medical devices. The framework consists of the following sixteen attributes of a comprehensive medical device risk management system: fault/failure analysis, premarket testing/clinical trials, post-approval studies, manufacturer sponsored hospital studies, product labeling, establishment inspections, problem reporting program, mandatory hospital reporting, medical literature surveillance, device/patient registries, device performance monitoring, returned product analysis, autopsy program, emergency treatment funds/interim compensation, product liability, and alternative compensation mechanisms. Review of performance histories for several medical devices can reveal the value of information for many attributes, and also the inter-dependencies of the attributes in generating risk information flow. Such an information flow network is presented as a starting point for enhancing medical device risk management by focusing on attributes with high net benefit values and potential to spur information dissemination.
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Are Eating Disorders Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
Nieto-Martínez, Ramfis; González-Rivas, Juan P; Medina-Inojosa, José R; Florez, Hermes
2017-11-22
Eating disorders (ED) affect energy intake modifying body fat depots. Prior evidence suggests that binge eating disorder (BED) and bulimia nervosa (BN) could increase the risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D), while anorexia nervosa (AN) could reduce it. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to evaluate if ED are risk factors for T2D. Ten studies were selected out of 1057 screened. Meta-analysis of six studies with T2D as outcome is reported. Among cross-sectional studies, both BED (OR 3.69, 95% CI [1.12-12.12]) and BN (OR 3.45 [1.92-6.1]) increased the risk of T2D, while AN was not associated with lower risk (OR 0.87 [0.40-1.88]). Cohort studies showed increased risk of T2D with BN (RR 1.7 [1.2-2.5]), and decreased risk with AN (RR 0.71 [0.52-0.98]), but for BED the association was less clear (OR 3.34 [0.85-13.12]). Limitations of studies and recommendations for future research are presented.
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A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.
Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck
2016-01-01
Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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The dissection of risk: a conceptual analysis.
O'Byrne, Patrick
2008-03-01
Recently, patient safety has gained popularity in the nursing literature. While this topic is used extensively and has been analyzed thoroughly, some of the concepts upon which it relies, such as risk, have remained undertheorized. In fact, despite its considerable use, the term 'risk' has been largely assumed to be inherently neutral - meaning that its definition and discovery is seen as objective and impartial, and that risk avoidance is natural and logical. Such an oversight in evaluation requires that the concept of risk be thoroughly analyzed as it relates to nursing practices, particularly in relation to those practices surrounding bio-political nursing care, such as public health, as well as other more trendy nursing topics, such as patient safety. Thus, this paper applies the Evolutionary Model of concept analysis to explore 'risk', and expose it as one mechanism of maintaining prescribed/ proscribed social practices. Thereby, an analysis of risk results in the definitions and roles of the discipline and profession of nursing expanding from solely being dedicated to patient care, to include, in addition, its functions as a governmental body that unwittingly maintains hegemonic infrastructures.
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An Updated Meta-Analysis of Risk of Multiple Sclerosis following Infectious Mononucleosis
Handel, Adam E.; Williamson, Alexander J.; Disanto, Giulio; Handunnetthi, Lahiru; Giovannoni, Gavin; Ramagopalan, Sreeram V.
2010-01-01
Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) appears to develop in genetically susceptible individuals as a result of environmental exposures. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is an almost universal finding among individuals with MS. Symptomatic EBV infection as manifested by infectious mononucleosis (IM) has been shown in a previous meta-analysis to be associated with the risk of MS, however a number of much larger studies have since been published. Methods/Principal Findings We performed a Medline search to identify articles published since the original meta-analysis investigating MS risk following IM. A total of 18 articles were included in this study, including 19390 MS patients and 16007 controls. We calculated the relative risk of MS following IM using a generic inverse variance with random effects model. This showed that the risk of MS was strongly associated with IM (relative risk (RR) 2.17; 95% confidence interval 1.97–2.39; p<10−54). Discussion Our results establish firmly that a history of infectious mononucleosis significantly increases the risk of multiple sclerosis. Future work should focus on the mechanism of this association and interaction with other risk factors. PMID:20824132
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Bow-tie diagrams for risk management in anaesthesia.
Culwick, M D; Merry, A F; Clarke, D M; Taraporewalla, K J; Gibbs, N M
2016-11-01
Bow-tie analysis is a risk analysis and management tool that has been readily adopted into routine practice in many high reliability industries such as engineering, aviation and emergency services. However, it has received little exposure so far in healthcare. Nevertheless, its simplicity, versatility, and pictorial display may have benefits for the analysis of a range of healthcare risks, including complex and multiple risks and their interactions. Bow-tie diagrams are a combination of a fault tree and an event tree, which when combined take the shape of a bow tie. Central to bow-tie methodology is the concept of an undesired or 'Top Event', which occurs if a hazard progresses past all prevention controls. Top Events may also occasionally occur idiosyncratically. Irrespective of the cause of a Top Event, mitigation and recovery controls may influence the outcome. Hence the relationship of hazard to outcome can be viewed in one diagram along with possible causal sequences or accident trajectories. Potential uses for bow-tie diagrams in anaesthesia risk management include improved understanding of anaesthesia hazards and risks, pre-emptive identification of absent or inadequate hazard controls, investigation of clinical incidents, teaching anaesthesia risk management, and demonstrating risk management strategies to third parties when required.
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Organizational sensemaking about risk controls: the case of offshore hydrocarbons production.
Busby, J S; Collins, A M
2014-09-01
In the same way that individuals' risk perceptions can influence how they behave toward risks, how organizational members make sense of risk controls is an important influence on how they apply and maintain such controls. In this article, we describe an analysis of sensemaking about the control of risk in offshore hydrocarbons production, an industry that continues to produce disasters of societal significance. A field study of 80 interviews was conducted in five offshore oil and gas companies and the agency that regulates them. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative template analysis. This provided a categorization of the many ways of acting through which informants made sense of the risk control task, and indicated that the organizations placed substantially different emphases on different ways of acting. Nevertheless, this sensemaking fell into two broad classes: that which tended to limit or be pessimistic about organizational controls, and that which tended to extend or be optimistic about organizational controls. All the participating organizations collectively placed a balanced emphasis on these two classes. We argue that this balanced sensemaking is an adaptation rather than a deliberate choice, but that it is an important element of controlling risk in its own right. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Wang, Xiao; Ji, Alin; Zhu, Yi; Liang, Zhen; Wu, Jian; Li, Shiqi; Meng, Shuai; Zheng, Xiangyi; Xie, Liping
2015-09-22
A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer. We searched for publications up to March 2015 using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases, and the references of the retrieved articles and relevant reviews were also checked. OR and 95% CI were used to assess the degree of the correlation between night shift work and risk of colorectal cancer via fixed- or random-effect models. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed as well. The pooled OR estimates of the included studies illustrated that night shift work was correlated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.318, 95% CI 1.121-1.551). No evidence of publication bias was detected. In the dose-response analysis, the rate of colorectal cancer increased by 11% for every 5 years increased in night shift work (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicated that night shift work was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. Further researches should be conducted to confirm our findings and clarify the potential biological mechanisms.
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Zhao, Yan; Guo, Chenyang; Hu, Hongtao; Zheng, Lin; Ma, Junli; Jiang, Li; Zhao, Erjiang; Li, Hailiang
2017-02-07
Previously reported findings on the association between folate intake or serum folate levels and esophageal cancer risk have been inconsistent. This study aims to summarize the evidence regarding these relationships using a dose-response meta-analysis approach. We performed electronic searches of the Pubmed, Medline and Cochrane Library electronic databases to identify studies examining the effect of folate on the risk of esophageal cancer. Ultimately, 19 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Summary odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using a random effects model. A linear regression analysis of the natural logarithm of the OR was carried out to assess the possible dose-response relationship between folate intake and esophageal cancer risk. The pooled ORs for esophageal cancer in the highest vs. lowest levels of dietary folate intake and serum folate were 0.63 (95% CI: 0.56-0.71) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.55-0.92), respectively. The dose-response meta-analysis indicated that a 100 μg/day increment in dietary folate intake reduced the estimate risk of esophageal cancer by 12%. These findings suggest that dietary and serum folate exert a protective effect against esophageal carcinogenesis.
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U.K. Foot and Mouth Disease: A Systemic Risk Assessment of Existing Controls.
Delgado, João; Pollard, Simon; Pearn, Kerry; Snary, Emma L; Black, Edgar; Prpich, George; Longhurst, Phil
2017-09-01
This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research-based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted 'features, events, and processes' (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U.K. FMD outbreaks of 1967/8 and 2001. The systemic risk assessment highlights areas outside of disease control that are relevant to disease spread. Further, it proves to be a powerful tool for demonstrating the need for implementing disease controls that have not previously been part of the system. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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Wang, Bin; Shao, Xiaoqing; Wang, Dan; Xu, Donghua; Zhang, Jin-An
2017-07-01
In the past several years, more and more studies proposed some concerns on the possibly increased risk of autoimmune diseases in individuals receiving vaccinations, but published studies on the associations of vaccinations with risks of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) reported conflicting findings. A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out to comprehensively evaluate the relationship between vaccinations and risk of SLE and RA. Pubmed, Web of Science and Embase were searched for observational studies assessing the associations of vaccinations with risks of RA and SLE. Two authors independently extracted data from those eligible studies. The quality of eligible studies was assessed by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). The pooled relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was used to measure the risk of RA and SLE associated with vaccinations, and was calculated through random-effect meta-analysis. Sixteen observational studies were finally considered eligible, including 12 studies on the association between vaccinations and SLE risk and 13 studies on the association between vaccinations and RA risk. The pooled findings suggested that vaccinations significantly increased risk of SLE (RR=1.50; 95%CI 1.05-2.12, P=0.02). In addition, there was an obvious association between vaccinations and increased risk of RA (RR=1.32; 95%CI 1.09-1.60, P=0.004). Meta-analysis of studies reporting outcomes of short vaccinated time also suggested that vaccinations could significantly increase risk of SLE (RR=1.93; 95%CI 1.07-3.48, P=0.028) and RA (RR=1.48; 95%CI 1.08-2.03, P=0.015). Sensitivity analyses in studies with low risk of bias also found obvious associations of vaccinations with increased risk of RA and SLE. This study suggests that vaccinations are related to increased risks of SLE and RA. More and larger observational studies are needed to further verify the findings above and to assess the associations of vaccinations with other rheumatic diseases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Magnesium and the Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies
Hao, Yongqiang; Li, Huiwu; Tang, Tingting; Wang, Hao; Yan, Weili; Dai, Kerong
2013-01-01
Background Prospective studies that have examined the association between dietary magnesium intake and serum magnesium concentrations and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events have reported conflicting findings. We undertook a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between dietary magnesium intake and serum magnesium concentrations and the risk of total CVD events. Methodology/Principal Findings We performed systematic searches on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and OVID up to February 1, 2012 without limits. Categorical, linear, and nonlinear, dose-response, heterogeneity, publication bias, subgroup, and meta-regression analysis were performed. The analysis included 532,979 participants from 19 studies (11 studies on dietary magnesium intake, 6 studies on serum magnesium concentrations, and 2 studies on both) with 19,926 CVD events. The pooled relative risks of total CVD events for the highest vs. lowest category of dietary magnesium intake and serum magnesium concentrations were 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.92) and 0.77 (0.66 to 0.87), respectively. In linear dose-response analysis, only serum magnesium concentrations ranging from 1.44 to 1.8 mEq/L were significantly associated with total CVD events risk (0.91, 0.85 to 0.97) per 0.1 mEq/L (Pnonlinearity = 0.465). However, significant inverse associations emerged in nonlinear models for dietary magnesium intake (Pnonlinearity = 0.024). The greatest risk reduction occurred when intake increased from 150 to 400 mg/d. There was no evidence of publication bias. Conclusions/Significance There is a statistically significant nonlinear inverse association between dietary magnesium intake and total CVD events risk. Serum magnesium concentrations are linearly and inversely associated with the risk of total CVD events. PMID:23520480
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Shatkin, J. A.; Ong, Kimberly J.; Beaudrie, Christian
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATSmore » use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.« less
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Akolekar, R; Beta, J; Picciarelli, G; Ogilvie, C; D'Antonio, F
2015-01-01
To estimate procedure-related risks of miscarriage following amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling (CVS) based on a systematic review of the literature and a meta-analysis. A search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINHAL and The Cochrane Library (2000-2014) was performed to review relevant citations reporting procedure-related complications of amniocentesis and CVS. Only studies reporting data on more than 1000 procedures were included in this review to minimize the effect of bias from smaller studies. Heterogeneity between studies was estimated using Cochran's Q, the I(2) statistic and Egger bias. Meta-analysis of proportions was used to derive weighted pooled estimates for the risk of miscarriage before 24 weeks' gestation. Incidence-rate difference meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled procedure-related risks. The weighted pooled risks of miscarriage following invasive procedures were estimated from analysis of controlled studies including 324 losses in 42 716 women who underwent amniocentesis and 207 losses in 8899 women who underwent CVS. The risk of miscarriage prior to 24 weeks in women who underwent amniocentesis and CVS was 0.81% (95% CI, 0.58-1.08%) and 2.18% (95% CI, 1.61-2.82%), respectively. The background rates of miscarriage in women from the control group that did not undergo any procedures were 0.67% (95% CI, 0.46-0.91%) for amniocentesis and 1.79% (95% CI, 0.61-3.58%) for CVS. The weighted pooled procedure-related risks of miscarriage for amniocentesis and CVS were 0.11% (95% CI, -0.04 to 0.26%) and 0.22% (95% CI, -0.71 to 1.16%), respectively. The procedure-related risks of miscarriage following amniocentesis and CVS are much lower than are currently quoted. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Pancholy, Samir B; Sharma, Parikshit S; Pancholy, Dipti S; Patel, Tejas M; Callans, David J; Marchlinski, Francis E
2014-02-01
Studies comparing gender-specific outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have reported conflicting results. Gender differences in cerebrovascular accident/systemic embolism (CVA/SE) or major bleeding outcomes with novel oral anticoagulant (NOAC) use are not known. The goal of this analysis was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating gender differences in residual risk of CVA/SE and major bleeding outcomes in patients with nonvalvular AF treated with either warfarin or NOAC. Sixty-four randomized studies were identified using keywords "gender," "AF," and "CVA." Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic Reviews and Meta-analysis method, 6 studies met criteria for inclusion in this meta-analysis. CVA/SE and major bleeding outcomes were separately analyzed in cohorts receiving warfarin and NOAC agents, comparing men with women. Women with AF taking warfarin were at a significantly greater residual risk of CVA/SE compared with men (odds ratio 1.279, 95% confidence interval 1.111 to 1.473, Z = -3.428, p = 0.001). No gender difference in residual risk of CVA/SE was noted in patients with AF receiving NOAC agents (odds ratio 1.146, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.354, p = 0.109). Major bleeding was less frequent in women with AF treated with NOAC. In conclusion, women with AF treated with warfarin have a greater residual risk of CVA/SE and an equivalent major bleeding risk, whereas those treated with NOAC agents deemed superior to warfarin are at equivalent residual risk of CVA/SE and less major bleeding risk compared with men. These results suggest an increased net clinical benefit of NOAC agents compared with warfarin in treating women with AF. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Zhu, Xin-Li; Liu, Zhi-Zhong; Yan, Sen-Xiang; Wang, Wei; Chang, Rui-Xia; Zhang, Chun-Yan; Guo, Yan
2016-02-01
Many molecular, epidemiological studies have been performed to explore the association between MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and cancer risk. However, the results were inconsistent or even contradictory. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between cancer risk and MTHFR A1298C (81,040 cases and 114,975 controls from 265 studies) polymorphism. Overall, significant association was observed between MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and cancer risk when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. In further stratified and sensitivity analyses, significantly increased cervical cancer (dominant model: OR 1.46, 95 % CI 1.13-1.90; AC vs. AA: OR 1.48, 95 % CI 1.13-1.92) and lymphoma (dominant model: OR 1.22, 95 % CI 1.04-1.44; recessive model: OR 1.66, 95 % CI 1.15-2.39; CC vs. AA: OR 1.75, 95 % CI 1.21-2.53) risk were observed in Asians, and significantly decreased colorectal cancer risk was found in Asians (recessive model: OR 0.75, 95 % CI 0.59-0.96; CC vs. AA: OR 0.77, 95 % CI 0.60-1.00). In summary, this meta-analysis suggests that MTHFR A1298C polymorphism is associated with increased cervical cancer and lymphoma risk in Asians, and MTHFR A1298C polymorphism is associated with decreased colorectal cancer risk in Asians. Moreover, this meta-analysis also points out the importance of new studies, such as oral cancer and chronic myeloid leukemia, because they had high heterogeneity in this meta-analysis (I (2) > 75 %).
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Shatkin, J A; Ong, Kimberly J; Beaudrie, Christian; Clippinger, Amy J; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Haber, Lynne T; Hill, Myriam; Holden, Patricia; Kennedy, Alan J; Kim, Baram; MacDonell, Margaret; Powers, Christina M; Sharma, Monita; Sheremeta, Lorraine; Stone, Vicki; Sultan, Yasir; Turley, Audrey; White, Ronald H
2016-08-01
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Gabriele, V; Gapp-Born, E; Ohl, J; Akladios, C; Mathelin, C
2016-02-01
The objective of this review was to assess the level of risk of breast cancer of patients consulting for infertility. Studies of cohorts and case-control were extracted from the Pubmed database from January 2000 until May 2015 through the following keywords: "infertility"; "endometriosis"; "polycystic ovary syndrome"; "breast cancer", "cancer risk". Eleven publications were finally selected after exclusion of publications dealing with infertility after breast cancer. Our meta-analysis, involving 10 of these publications, was performed using Review Manager software, Cochrane Collaboration, 2014. The results were calculated by etiology of infertility, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and endometriosis, as well as globally. The analysis of these published epidemiological studies confirms that infertility is not a breast cancer risk factor, but the results are contradictory. Three studies have shown a significantly increased risk of breast cancer in a population of infertile women, while 7 others have not found this risk. These contradictions are due to the heterogeneity of the studies, the included populations, the follow-up periods and confounding factors. Our meta-analysis of the selected studies has not identified a significant association between infertility and breast cancer risk (1.05; 95% CI [0.96-1.16]). A subgroup analysis on endometriosis and PCOS showed no significant association either, with an OR of 1.02 (95% CI [0.87-1.19]) and 1.19 (95% CI [0.93-1.51]), respectively. Infertility is not an identified risk factor for breast cancer. A message reassuring about a possible risk of infertility-related breast cancer should be given to these patients. Infertility is therefore not an indication of increased breast surveillance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aidi, Muhammad Nur; Sari, Resty Indah
2012-05-01
A decision of credit that given by bank or another creditur must have a risk and it called credit risk. Credit risk is an investor's risk of loss arising from a borrower who does not make payments as promised. The substantial of credit risk can lead to losses for the banks and the debtor. To minimize this problem need a further study to identify a potential new customer before the decision given. Identification of debtor can using various approaches analysis, one of them is by using discriminant analysis. Discriminant analysis in this study are used to classify whether belonging to the debtor's good credit or bad credit. The result of this study are two discriminant functions that can identify new debtor. Before step built the discriminant function, selection of explanatory variables should be done. Purpose of selection independent variable is to choose the variable that can discriminate the group maximally. Selection variables in this study using different test, for categoric variable selection of variable using proportion chi-square test, and stepwise discriminant for numeric variable. The result of this study are two discriminant functions that can identify new debtor. The selected variables that can discriminating two groups of debtor maximally are status of existing checking account, credit history, credit amount, installment rate in percentage of disposable income, sex, age in year, other installment plans, and number of people being liable to provide maintenance. This classification produce a classification accuracy rate is good enough, that is equal to 74,70%. Debtor classification using discriminant analysis has risk level that is small enough, and it ranged beetwen 14,992% and 17,608%. Based on that credit risk rate, using discriminant analysis on the classification of credit status can be used effectively.
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Xu, Wei-Wei; Hu, Shen-Jiang; Wu, Tao
2017-07-01
Antithrombotic therapy using new oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) has been generally shown to have a favorable risk-benefit profile. Since there has been dispute about the risks of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), we sought to conduct a systematic review and network meta-analysis using Bayesian inference to analyze the risks of GIB and ICH in AF patients taking NOACs. We analyzed data from 20 randomized controlled trials of 91 671 AF patients receiving anticoagulants, antiplatelet drugs, or placebo. Bayesian network meta-analysis of two different evidence networks was performed using a binomial likelihood model, based on a network in which different agents (and doses) were treated as separate nodes. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were modeled using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Indirect comparisons with the Bayesian model confirmed that aspirin+clopidogrel significantly increased the risk of GIB in AF patients compared to the placebo (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.01-0.92). Warfarin was identified as greatly increasing the risk of ICH compared to edoxaban 30 mg (OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.22-7.24) and dabigatran 110 mg (OR 3.56, 95% CI 1.10-8.45). We further ranked the NOACs for the lowest risk of GIB (apixaban 5 mg) and ICH (apixaban 5 mg, dabigatran 110 mg, and edoxaban 30 mg). Bayesian network meta-analysis of treatment of non-valvular AF patients with anticoagulants suggested that NOACs do not increase risks of GIB and/or ICH, compared to each other.
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Risk methodology overview. [for carbon fiber release
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Credeur, K. R.
1979-01-01
Some considerations of risk estimation, how risk is measured, and how risk analysis decisions are made are discussed. Specific problems of carbon fiber release are discussed by reviewing the objective, describing the main elements, and giving an example of the risk logic and outputs.
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38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-07-01
... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... degree of protection for the data, e.g., unencrypted, plain text; (6) Time the data has been out of VA...
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DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
1996-06-01
Risk analysis plays a key role in the implementation of an architecture. Early definition of the situations, processes, or events that have the potential for impeding the implementation of key elements of the ITS National Architecture is a critical e...
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Jolly, Kim; Archibald, Cynthia; Liehr, Patricia
2013-10-01
School nurses are well positioned to address risk-taking behaviors for adolescents in their care. The purpose of this mixed-method exploratory study was to explore risk taking in Afro-Caribbean adolescents in South Florida, comparing first- to second-generation adolescents. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from an immigrant group using the adolescent risk-taking instrument to evaluate risk-taking attitudes, behaviors, and self-described riskiest activities. One-hundred and six adolescents participated; 44% were first generation Afro-Caribbean. Data analysis included analysis of variance, frequencies, and content analysis. There were no differences in risk-taking attitudes; smaller percentages of first generation Afro-Caribbean adolescents reported sexual activity, substance use, and violence. Over one third of the sample, regardless of generational status, reported alcohol use, but did not note alcohol or other health-compromising behaviors as "riskiest" activities. It is important to better understand Afro-Caribbean adolescents' perspectives about risky behaviors, and school-based venues offer the best promise for reaching these adolescents.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.
1995-09-01
This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying themore » most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.« less
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Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Civitarese, Jamil
2016-10-01
This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.
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Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.
Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J
2012-05-01
Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Mieczkowski, Tom
2011-03-20
This article examines the conjecture that hair analysis, performed to detect cocaine use or exposure, is biased against African Americans. It does so by comparing the outcomes of 33,928 hair and 105,792 urine samples collected from both African American and white subjects. In making this comparison the analysis seeks to determine if there is a departure in rates of positive and negative outcomes when comparing the results of hair analysis for cocaine to the results from urinalysis for cocaine by racial group. It treats urine as an unbiased test. It compares both the relative ratios of positive outcomes when comparing the two groups and it calculates the relative risk of outcomes for each group for having positive or negative outcomes. The findings show that the ratios of each racial group are effectively same for hair and urine assays, and they also show that the relative risk and risk estimates for positive and negative outcomes are the same for both racial groups. Considering all samples, the cocaine positive risk estimate for the hair samples comparing the two racial groups is 3.28 and for urinalysis the risk estimate is 3.10 (Breslow-Day χ(2) .250, 1 df, p = 0.617) a non-significant difference in risk. For pre-employment samples, the cocaine positive risk estimate for the hair samples comparing the two racial groups is 3.10 and for urinalysis the risk estimate is 2.90 (Breslow-Day χ(2) .281, df = 1, p = 0.595), also a non-significant difference in risk. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai
2018-05-01
Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.
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Association between physical activity and risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a meta-analysis.
Qiu, Shanhu; Cai, Xue; Sun, Zilin; Li, Ling; Zügel, Martina; Steinacker, Jürgen Michael; Schumann, Uwe
2017-09-01
Increased physical activity (PA) is a key element in the management of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD); however, its association with NAFLD risk has not been systematically assessed. This meta-analysis of observational studies was to quantify this association with dose-response analysis. Electronic databases were searched to January 2017 for studies of adults reporting the risk of NAFLD in relation to PA with cohort or case-control designs. Studies that reported sex-specific data were included as separate studies. The overall risk estimates were pooled using a random-effects model, and the dose-response analysis was conducted to shape the quantitative relationship. A total of 6 cohort studies from 5 articles with 32,657 incident NAFLD cases from 142,781 participants, and 4 case-control studies from 3 articles with 382 NAFLD cases and 302 controls were included. Compared with the lowest PA level, the highest PA level was associated with a risk reduction of NAFLD in cohort [RR (risk ratio) 0.79, 95% CI (confidence interval) 0.71-0.89] and case-control studies [OR (odds ratio) 0.43, 95% CI 0.27-0.68]. For cohort studies, both highest and moderate PA levels were superior to the light one in lowering NAFLD risk ( p for interaction = 0.006 and 0.02, respectively), and there was a log-linear dose-response association ( p for nonlinearity = 0.10) between PA and NAFLD risk [RR 0.82 (95% CI 0.73-0.91) for every 500 metabolic equivalent (MET)-minutes/week increment in PA]. Increased PA may lead to a reduced risk of NAFLD in a dose-dependent manner, and the current guideline-recommended minimum PA level that approximates to 500 MET-minutes/week is able to moderately reduce the NAFLD risk.
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Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies
Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli
2017-01-01
To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture. PMID:27911854
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Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.
Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli
2017-01-10
To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.
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Wang, Dongming; Li, Wenzhen; Cui, Xiuqing; Meng, Yidi; Zhou, Min; Xiao, Lili; Ma, Jixuan; Yi, Guilin; Chen, Weihong
2016-09-15
Epidemiological studies suggest an association between sleep duration and risk of coronary heart disease, however, the results are controversial. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the potential dose-response relationship between sleep duration and risk of coronary heart disease. The electronic reference databases (PubMed and Embase) were searched through January 2016 with selection criteria for relevant studies. Both semiparametric and parametric methods were used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Seventeen articles with 22 independent reports involving 17,841 incident cases of coronary heart disease among 517,440 participants were included in our meta-analysis. A U-shaped relationship was detected between sleep duration and risk of coronary heart disease, with the lowest risk at 7-8h per day. Compared with 7h sleep duration per day, the combined relative risk of coronary heart disease were 1.11 (95% CI=1.05-1.16) for an reduction of 1h and 1.07 (95% CI=1.00-1.15) for an increment of 1h. And the results almost did not change in the subgroup analysis of gender and fatal cases. Exclusion of any single study did not alter the combined relative risk. In addition, visual inspection of funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's tests failed to identify publication bias. Both short and long sleep durations are significantly associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease. Compared with 7h sleep duration per day, the risk of coronary heart disease increases 11% for an hour decrease and increases 7% for an hour increase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, P.
2013-12-01
Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.
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Yu, Chia-Ying; Chen, Fang-Ping; Chen, Li-Wei; Kuo, Sheng-Fong; Chien, Rong-Nan
2017-12-01
Osteoporosis and metabolic syndrome (MS) share similar risk factors. Previous studies of association between bone marrow density (BMD) and MS are controversial. Moreover, some studies revealed that MS is associated with BMD but not with bone fracture. In clinical practice, patients pay more attention to bone fracture risk than BMD values. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the association between MS and the 10-year bone fracture risk probability using a fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) from community-based data. From March 2014 to August 2015, 2689 participants (897 men and 1792 women) were enrolled in this study. Inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and C-reactive protein, and adipokines were included for analysis.The mean age was 60.2 ± 10.7 years in men and 58.9 ± 9.6 years in women. The percentage of MS was 27.6% in men and 27.9% in women. Participants were divided into 2 groups, those with or without MS. Compared with women without MS, women with MS had a higher rate of fracture risk (22.8% vs 16.3%, P = .001). In contrast, men with MS had a lower rate of fracture risk then men without MS (5.6% vs 12.3%, P = .004). However, MS loss the association with a high bone fracture risk in men based on multivariate logistical regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factor of body mass index (BMI). Conclusively, the result of regression analysis between MS and the bone fracture risk may be different in men and women, and BMI was an important confounding factor to interfere with the regression analysis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Rah, Jeong-Eun; Manger, Ryan P; Yock, Adam D; Kim, Gwe-Ya
2016-12-01
To examine the abilities of a traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and modified healthcare FMEA (m-HFMEA) scoring methods by comparing the degree of congruence in identifying high risk failures. The authors applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation were based on the risk priority number (RPN). The RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity, and detectability. The m-HFMEA approach utilized two indices, severity and frequency. A risk inventory matrix was divided into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. The two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks matched. The authors' results showed an agreement of 85% between FMEA and m-HFMEA approaches for top 20 risks of SIG-RS-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the observation that failure modes (52, 54, 154) with high m-HFMEA scores do not necessarily have high FMEA-RPN scores. In the m-HFMEA analysis, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established HFMEA Decision Tree™ or the failure mode should be more thoroughly investigated. m-HFMEA is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allows the prioritization of high risks and mitigation measures. It is therefore a useful tool for the prospective risk analysis method to radiotherapy.
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de Dianous, Valérie; Fiévez, Cécile
2006-03-31
Over the last two decades a growing interest for risk analysis has been noted in the industries. The ARAMIS project has defined a methodology for risk assessment. This methodology has been built to help the industrialist to demonstrate that they have a sufficient risk control on their site. Risk analysis consists first in the identification of all the major accidents, assuming that safety functions in place are inefficient. This step of identification of the major accidents uses bow-tie diagrams. Secondly, the safety barriers really implemented on the site are taken into account. The barriers are identified on the bow-ties. An evaluation of their performance (response time, efficiency, and level of confidence) is performed to validate that they are relevant for the expected safety function. At last, the evaluation of their probability of failure enables to assess the frequency of occurrence of the accident. The demonstration of the risk control based on a couple gravity/frequency of occurrence is also possible for all the accident scenarios. During the risk analysis, a practical tool called risk graph is used to assess if the number and the reliability of the safety functions for a given cause are sufficient to reach a good risk control.
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The role of building models in the evaluation of heat-related risks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buchin, Oliver; Jänicke, Britta; Meier, Fred; Scherer, Dieter; Ziegler, Felix
2016-04-01
Hazard-risk relationships in epidemiological studies are generally based on the outdoor climate, despite the fact that most of humans' lifetime is spent indoors. By coupling indoor and outdoor climates with a building model, the risk concept developed can still be based on the outdoor conditions but also includes exposure to the indoor climate. The influence of non-linear building physics and the impact of air conditioning on heat-related risks can be assessed in a plausible manner using this risk concept. For proof of concept, the proposed risk concept is compared to a traditional risk analysis. As an example, daily and city-wide mortality data of the age group 65 and older in Berlin, Germany, for the years 2001-2010 are used. Four building models with differing complexity are applied in a time-series regression analysis. This study shows that indoor hazard better explains the variability in the risk data compared to outdoor hazard, depending on the kind of building model. Simplified parameter models include the main non-linear effects and are proposed for the time-series analysis. The concept shows that the definitions of heat events, lag days, and acclimatization in a traditional hazard-risk relationship are influenced by the characteristics of the prevailing building stock.
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An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.
Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin
2015-04-01
Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.