Alzheimer disease and cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Hai-bin; Tang, Bo; Liu, Yao-Wen; Wang, Xue-Feng; Chen, Guo-Jun

2015-03-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) and cancer are seemingly two opposite ends of one spectrum. Studies have suggested that patients with AD showed a reduced risk of cancer and vice versa. However, available evidences are not conclusive. So we conducted a meta-analysis using published literatures to systematically examine cancer risk in AD patients. A PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science search were conducted in May 2014. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) with their corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using random-effects meta-analysis. We tested for publication bias and heterogeneity, and stratified for study characteristics, smoking-related cancers versus nonsmoking-related cancers, and site-specific cancers. Nine studies were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with controls, the pooled RR of cancer in AD patients was 0.55 (95 % CI 0.41-0.75), with significant heterogeneity among these studies (P < 0.001, I(2) = 83.5 %). The reduced cancer risk was more substantial when we restricted analyses to cohort studies, studies with adjusted estimates, studies defining AD by generally accepted criteria, and studies with longer length of follow-up. In sub-analyses for site-specific cancers, only lung cancer showed significant decreased risk (RR 0.72; 95 % CI 0.56-0.91). We did not find significant publication bias (P = 0.251 for Begg and Mazumdar's test and P = 0.143 for Egger's regression asymmetry test). These results support an association between AD and decreased cancer risk.

Posttreatment human papillomavirus testing for residual or recurrent high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a pooled analysis

PubMed Central

Yoshikawa, Hiroyuki

2016-01-01

Objective We conducted a pooled analysis of published studies to compare the performance of human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and cytology in detecting residual or recurrent diseases after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 (CIN 2/3). Methods Source articles presenting data on posttreatment HPV testing were identified from the National Library of Medicine (PubMed) database. We included 5,319 cases from 33 articles published between 1996 and 2013. Results The pooled sensitivity of high-risk HPV testing (0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 0.94) for detecting posttreatment CIN 2 or worse (CIN 2+) was much higher than that of cytology (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.80). Co-testing of HPV testing and cytology maximized the sensitivity (0.93; 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.96), while HPV genotyping (detection of the same genotype between pre- and posttreatments) did not improve the sensitivity (0.89; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.94) compared with high-risk HPV testing alone. The specificity of high-risk HPV testing (0.83; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.84) was similar to that of cytology (0.85; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.87) and HPV genotyping (0.83; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.85), while co-testing had reduced specificity (0.76; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78). For women with positive surgical margins, high-risk HPV testing provided remarkable risk discrimination between test-positives and test-negatives (absolute risk of residual CIN 2+ 74.4% [95% CI, 64.0 to 82.6] vs. 0.8% [95% CI, 0.15 to 4.6]; p<0.001). Conclusion Our findings recommend the addition of high-risk HPV testing, either alone or in conjunction with cytology, to posttreatment surveillance strategies. HPV testing can identify populations at greatest risk of posttreatment CIN 2+ lesions, especially among women with positive section margins. PMID:26463429

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

PubMed

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the classification tree. 3000 women participated in the study. The high-risk type HPV infection rate was 8.7%, the persistent infection rate was 7.5%. The persistent infection rates for the 2 age groups (ages 18-26 and 27-30) were 6.9% and 8.7%. The persistent infection rates of Xiangfen county were 7.4% and 7.4% respectively, and those of Quwo county were 7.8% and 11.6% respectively; there was no significant difference between each pair of groups. Single risk-factor analysis showed that first-time sex at age under 20, high school/technical secondary school education or above, multiple sexual partners, having more than 2 sexual partners in the past 6 months, oral sex, and colitis are the risk factors of high-risk type HPV infection. Multivariate analysis showed that the number of sexual partners, smoking and oral sex had an effect on HPV infection. The risk of HPV infection from smoking was 5.0-fold higher, and the risk of HPV infection from oral sex was 6.1-fold higher. Having more than 2 sexual partners increase the risk of HPV infection. By the predicated model analysis, the probability of HPV conveyed by oral sex was 14.8%; if the sexual companion number was zero or more than 2 without oral sex, the probability of HPV infection was 12.1%; if there was one sexual partner who smokes without oral sex, the probability of infection was 18.6%; if there was one sexual partner who does not smoke and without oral sex, the probability of infection was 3.6%. The persistent infection rate of asymptomatic women for high-risk type HPV is lower than those women in all ages. High-risk type HPV infection risk factors include the number of sexual partners, oral sex and smoking. Thus, young women may be able to reduce the risk of infection with high-risk type HPV by reducing the number of sexual partners, forming a correct sexual life habit, and avoiding smoking.

Advances in risk assessment and communication.

PubMed

Goldstein, Bernard D

2005-01-01

Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

Informed choice in direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) websites: a content analysis of benefits, risks, and limitations

PubMed Central

Singleton, Amanda; Erby, Lori Hamby; Foisie, Kathryn V.; Kaphingst, Kimberly

2012-01-01

An informed choice about health-related direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) requires knowledge of potential benefits, risks, and limitations. To understand the information that potential consumers of DTCGT services are exposed to on company websites, we conducted a content analysis of 23 health-related DTCGT websites. Results revealed that benefit statements outweighed risk and limitation statements 6 to 1. The most frequently described benefits were 1) disease prevention, 2) consumer education, 3) personalized medical recommendations, and 4) the ability to make health decisions. Thirty-five percent of websites also presented at least one risk of testing. Seventy-eight percent of websites mentioned at least one limitation of testing. Based on this information, potential consumers might get an inaccurate picture of genetic testing which could impact their ability to make an informed decision. Practices that enhance the presentation of balanced information on DTCGT company websites should be encouraged. PMID:22194036

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-07-01

RTO-EN-AVT-142 17 - 1 A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/ TPS Analysis and Testing Michael J. Wright∗ and Jay H. Grinstead† NASA Ames...of the thermal protection system ( TPS ) is to protect the payload (crew, cargo, or science) from this entry heating environment. The performance of...the TPS is determined by the efficiency and reliability of this system, typically measured

Assessment of the influence of test characteristics on the clinical and cost impacts of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus screening programs in US hospitals.

PubMed

Olchanski, Natalia; Mathews, Charles; Fusfeld, Lauren; Jarvis, William

2011-03-01

To compare the impacts of different methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) screening test options (eg, polymerase chain reaction [PCR], rapid culture) and program characteristics on the clinical outcomes and budget of a typical US hospital. We developed an Excel-based decision-analytic model, using published literature to calculate and compare hospital costs and MRSA infection rates for PCR- or culture-based MRSA screening and then used multivariate sensitivity analysis to evaluate key variables. Same-day PCR testing for a representative 370-bed teaching hospital in the United States was assessed in different populations (high-risk patients, intensive care unit [ICU] patients, or all patients) and compared with other test options. Different screening program populations (all patients, high-risk patients, ICU patients, or patients with previous MRSA colonization or infection only) represented a potential savings of $12,158-$76,624 per month over no program ($188,618). Analysis of multiple test options in high-risk population screening indicated that same-day PCR testing of high-risk patients resulted in fewer infections over 1,720 patient-days (2.9, compared with 3.5 for culture on selective media and 3.8 for culture on nonselective media) and the lowest total cost ($112,012). The costs of other testing approaches ranged from $113,742 to $123,065. Sensitivity analysis revealed that variations in transmission rate, conversion to infection, prevalence increases, and hospital size are important to determine program impact. Among test characteristics, turnaround time is highly influential. All screening options showed reductions in infection rates and cost impact improvement over no screening program. Among the options, same-day PCR testing for high-risk patients slightly edges out the others in terms of fewest infections and greatest potential cost savings.

Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement: Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shatkin, J. A.; Ong, Kimberly J.; Beaudrie, Christian

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATSmore » use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.« less

Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement.

PubMed

Shatkin, J A; Ong, Kimberly J; Beaudrie, Christian; Clippinger, Amy J; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Haber, Lynne T; Hill, Myriam; Holden, Patricia; Kennedy, Alan J; Kim, Baram; MacDonell, Margaret; Powers, Christina M; Sharma, Monita; Sheremeta, Lorraine; Stone, Vicki; Sultan, Yasir; Turley, Audrey; White, Ronald H

2016-08-01

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Effects of Variability and Risk in Selection Utility Analysis: An Empirical Comparison.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rich, Joseph R.; Boudreau, John W.

1987-01-01

Investigated utility estimate variability for the selection utility of using the Programmer Aptitude Test to select computer programmers. Comparison of Monte Carlo results to other risk assessment approaches (sensitivity analysis, break-even analysis, algebraic derivation of the distribtion) suggests that distribution information provided by Monte…

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Examining the Efficacy of HIV Risk-Reduction Counseling on the Sexual Risk Behaviors of a National Sample of Drug Abuse Treatment Clients: Analysis of Subgroups

PubMed Central

Metsch, Lisa R.; Pereyra, Margaret R.; Malotte, C. Kevin; Haynes, Louise F.; Douaihy, Antoine; Chally, Jack; Mandler, Raul N.; Feaster, Daniel J.

2016-01-01

HIV counseling with testing has been part of HIV prevention in the U.S. since the 1980s. Despite the long-standing history of HIV testing with prevention counseling, the CDC released HIV testing recommendations for health care settings contesting benefits of prevention counseling with testing in reducing sexual risk behaviors among HIV-negatives in 2006. Efficacy of brief HIV risk-reduction counseling (RRC) in decreasing sexual risk among subgroups of substance use treatment clients was examined using multisite RCT data. Interaction tests between RRC and subgroups were performed; multivariable regression evaluated the relationship between RRC (with rapid testing) and sex risk. Subgroups were defined by demographics, risk type and level, attitudes/perceptions, and behavioral history. There was an effect (p < .0028) of counseling on number of sex partners among some subgroups. Certain subgroups may benefit from HIV RRC; this should be examined in studies with larger sample sizes, designed to assess the specific subgroup(s). PMID:26837631

Using Enterprise Architecture for Analysis of a Complex Adaptive Organization's Risk Inducing Characteristics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salguero, Laura Marie; Huff, Johnathon; Matta, Anthony R.

Sandia National Laboratories is an organization with a wide range of research and development activities that include nuclear, explosives, and chemical hazards. In addition, Sandia has over 2000 labs and over 40 major test facilities, such as the Thermal Test Complex, the Lightning Test Facility, and the Rocket Sled Track. In order to support safe operations, Sandia has a diverse Environment, Safety, and Health (ES&H) organization that provides expertise to support engineers and scientists in performing work safely. With such a diverse organization to support, the ES&H program continuously seeks opportunities to improve the services provided for Sandia by usingmore » various methods as part of their risk management strategy. One of the methods being investigated is using enterprise architecture analysis to mitigate risk inducing characteristics such as normalization of deviance, organizational drift, and problems in information flow. This paper is a case study for how a Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF) model of the ES&H enterprise, including information technology applications, can be analyzed to understand the level of risk associated with the risk inducing characteristics discussed above. While the analysis is not complete, we provide proposed analysis methods that will be used for future research as the project progresses.« less

Detection of fetal cell-free DNA in maternal plasma for Down syndrome, Edward syndrome and Patau syndrome of high risk fetus

PubMed Central

Ke, Wei-Lin; Zhao, Wei-Hua; Wang, Xin-Yu

2015-01-01

Objective: The study aimed to validate the efficacy of detection of fetal cell-free DNA in maternal plasma of trisomy 21, 18 and 13 in a clinical setting. Methods: A total of 2340 women at high risk for Down syndrome based on maternal age, prenatal history or a positive sesum or sonographic screening test were offered prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy test. According to the prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy test, the pregnant women at high risk were offered amniocentesis karyotype analysis and the pregnant at low risk were followed up to make sure the newborn outcome. Results: The prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy test was positive for trisomy 21 in 17 cases, for trisomy 18 in 6 cases and for trisomy 13 in 1 case, which of all were confirmed by karyotype analysis. Newborns of low risk gestational woman detected by prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy for trisomy 21, 18, 13 were followed up and no one was found with trisomy. Conclusions: The prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy test is highly accurate for detection of trisomy 21, 18 and 13, which can be considered as a practical alternative for traditional invasive diagnostic procedures. PMID:26309618

Detection of fetal cell-free DNA in maternal plasma for Down syndrome, Edward syndrome and Patau syndrome of high risk fetus.

PubMed

Ke, Wei-Lin; Zhao, Wei-Hua; Wang, Xin-Yu

2015-01-01

The study aimed to validate the efficacy of detection of fetal cell-free DNA in maternal plasma of trisomy 21, 18 and 13 in a clinical setting. A total of 2340 women at high risk for Down syndrome based on maternal age, prenatal history or a positive sesum or sonographic screening test were offered prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy test. According to the prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy test, the pregnant women at high risk were offered amniocentesis karyotype analysis and the pregnant at low risk were followed up to make sure the newborn outcome. The prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy test was positive for trisomy 21 in 17 cases, for trisomy 18 in 6 cases and for trisomy 13 in 1 case, which of all were confirmed by karyotype analysis. Newborns of low risk gestational woman detected by prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy for trisomy 21, 18, 13 were followed up and no one was found with trisomy. The prenatal noninvasive aneuploidy test is highly accurate for detection of trisomy 21, 18 and 13, which can be considered as a practical alternative for traditional invasive diagnostic procedures.

Effectiveness of a Risk Screener in Identifying Hepatitis C Virus in a Primary Care Setting

PubMed Central

Litwin, Alain H.; Smith, Bryce D.; Koppelman, Elisa A.; McKee, M. Diane; Christiansen, Cindy L.; Gifford, Allen L.; Weinbaum, Cindy M.; Southern, William N.

2012-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated an intervention designed to identify patients at risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) through a risk screener used by primary care providers. Methods. A clinical reminder sticker prompted physicians at 3 urban clinics to screen patients for 12 risk factors and order HCV testing if any risks were present. Risk factor data were collected from the sticker; demographic and testing data were extracted from electronic medical records. We used the t test, χ2 test, and rank-sum test to compare patients who had and had not been screened and developed an analytic model to identify the incremental value of each element of the screener. Results. Among screened patients, 27.8% (n = 902) were identified as having at least 1 risk factor. Of screened patients with risk factors, 55.4% (n = 500) were tested for HCV. Our analysis showed that 7 elements (injection drug use, intranasal drug use, elevated alanine aminotransferase, transfusions before 1992, ≥ 20 lifetime sex partners, maternal HCV, existing liver disease) accounted for all HCV infections identified. Conclusions. A brief risk screener with a paper-based clinical reminder was effective in increasing HCV testing in a primary care setting. PMID:22994166

Myocardial perfusion imaging in patients with a recent, normal exercise test.

PubMed

Bovin, Ann; Klausen, Ib C; Petersen, Lars J

2013-03-26

To investigate the added value of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy imaging (MPI) in consecutive patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) and a recent, normal exercise electrocardiography (ECG). This study was a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients referred for MPI during a 2-year period from 2006-2007 at one clinic. All eligible patients were suspected of suffering from CAD, and had performed a satisfactory bicycle exercise test (i.e., peak heart rate > 85% of the expected, age-predicted maximum) within 6 mo of referral, their exercise ECG was had no signs of ischemia, there was no exercise-limiting angina, and no cardiac events occurred between the exercise test and referral. The patients subsequently underwent a standard 2-d, stress-rest exercise MPI. Ischemia was defined based on visual scoring supported by quantitative segmental analysis (i.e., sum of stress score > 3). The results of cardiac catheterization were analyzed, and clinical follow up was performed by review of electronic medical files. A total of 56 patients fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Most patients had a low or intermediate ATPIII pre-test risk of CAD (6 patients had a high pre-test risk). The referral exercise test showed a mean Duke score of 5 (range: 2 to 11), which translated to a low post-exercise risk in 66% and intermediate risk in 34%. A total of seven patients were reported with ischemia by MPI. Three of these patients had high ATPIII pre-test risk scores. Six of these seven patients underwent cardiac catheterization, which showed significant stenosis in one patient with a high pre-test risk of CAD, and indeterminate lesions in three patients (two of whom had high pre-test risk scores). With MPI as a gate keeper for catheterization, no significant, epicardial stenosis was observed in any of the 50 patients (0%, 95% confidence interval 0.0 to 7.1) with low to intermediate pre-test risk of CAD and a negative exercise test. No cardiac events occurred in any patients within a median follow up period of > 1200 d. The added diagnostic value of MPI in patients with low or intermediate risk of CAD and a recent, normal exercise test is marginal.

Managing Risk to Ensure a Successful Cassini/Huygens Saturn Orbit Insertion (SOI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witkowski, Mona M.; Huh, Shin M.; Burt, John B.; Webster, Julie L.

2004-01-01

I. Design: a) S/C designed to be largely single fault tolerant; b) Operate in flight demonstrated envelope, with margin; and c) Strict compliance with requirements & flight rules. II. Test: a) Baseline, fault & stress testing using flight system testbeds (H/W & S/W); b) In-flight checkout & demos to remove first time events. III. Failure Analysis: a) Critical event driven fault tree analysis; b) Risk mitigation & development of contingencies. IV) Residual Risks: a) Accepted pre-launch waivers to Single Point Failures; b) Unavoidable risks (e.g. natural disaster). V) Mission Assurance: a) Strict process for characterization of variances (ISAs, PFRs & Waivers; b) Full time Mission Assurance Manager reports to Program Manager: 1) Independent assessment of compliance with institutional standards; 2) Oversight & risk assessment of ISAs, PFRs & Waivers etc.; and 3) Risk Management Process facilitator.

Near-maximal ECG stress testing and coronary artery disease risk factor analysis in Los Angeles City fire fighters.

PubMed

Barnard, R J; Gardner, G W; Diaco, N V; Kattus, A A

1975-11-01

Near-maximal ECG stress testing and coronary artery disease risk factor analysis including blood pressure, serum cholesterol and smoking habits were conducted on a randomly selected group (N=90) of Los Angeles City Fire Fighters ranging in age from 40 to 59 yrs. The data obtained from the fire fighters were compared to data previously reported for a group of Los Angeles insurance underwriters of the same age range. Only 12% of the fire fighters had cholesterol values greater than 260 mg% while 18% of the insurance executives fell into this category. Only 2% of the fire fighters had blood pressure values greater than 160/90 mm Hg while 25% of the insurance executives were hypertensive. Thirty-two percent of the fire fighters were smokers at the time of testing as compared to 26% for the insurance executives. Only one fire fighter had all three risk factors elevated and only five had two risk factors elevated. Forty-seven of the fire fighters had no risk factors elevated. Ten percent of the fire fighters had ischemic stress tests as compared to 8% for the insurance executives. Of the nine fire fighters with ischemic stress tests one was hypertensive, one had elevated serum triglycerides, and three were smokers at the time of testing. Since the fire fighters are a medically-selected population with low risk factors for CHD, the observed incidence of ischemic stress tests is surprising and suggests that ischemic heart disease may be job associated.

Unified Sequence-Based Association Tests Allowing for Multiple Functional Annotations and Meta-analysis of Noncoding Variation in Metabochip Data.

PubMed

He, Zihuai; Xu, Bin; Lee, Seunggeun; Ionita-Laza, Iuliana

2017-09-07

Substantial progress has been made in the functional annotation of genetic variation in the human genome. Integrative analysis that incorporates such functional annotations into sequencing studies can aid the discovery of disease-associated genetic variants, especially those with unknown function and located outside protein-coding regions. Direct incorporation of one functional annotation as weight in existing dispersion and burden tests can suffer substantial loss of power when the functional annotation is not predictive of the risk status of a variant. Here, we have developed unified tests that can utilize multiple functional annotations simultaneously for integrative association analysis with efficient computational techniques. We show that the proposed tests significantly improve power when variant risk status can be predicted by functional annotations. Importantly, when functional annotations are not predictive of risk status, the proposed tests incur only minimal loss of power in relation to existing dispersion and burden tests, and under certain circumstances they can even have improved power by learning a weight that better approximates the underlying disease model in a data-adaptive manner. The tests can be constructed with summary statistics of existing dispersion and burden tests for sequencing data, therefore allowing meta-analysis of multiple studies without sharing individual-level data. We applied the proposed tests to a meta-analysis of noncoding rare variants in Metabochip data on 12,281 individuals from eight studies for lipid traits. By incorporating the Eigen functional score, we detected significant associations between noncoding rare variants in SLC22A3 and low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol, associations that are missed by standard dispersion and burden tests. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

2018-01-01

Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

Score tests for independence in semiparametric competing risks models.

PubMed

Saïd, Mériem; Ghazzali, Nadia; Rivest, Louis-Paul

2009-12-01

A popular model for competing risks postulates the existence of a latent unobserved failure time for each risk. Assuming that these underlying failure times are independent is attractive since it allows standard statistical tools for right-censored lifetime data to be used in the analysis. This paper proposes simple independence score tests for the validity of this assumption when the individual risks are modeled using semiparametric proportional hazards regressions. It assumes that covariates are available, making the model identifiable. The score tests are derived for alternatives that specify that copulas are responsible for a possible dependency between the competing risks. The test statistics are constructed by adding to the partial likelihoods for the individual risks an explanatory variable for the dependency between the risks. A variance estimator is derived by writing the score function and the Fisher information matrix for the marginal models as stochastic integrals. Pitman efficiencies are used to compare test statistics. A simulation study and a numerical example illustrate the methodology proposed in this paper.

Diagnostic value of stool DNA testing for multiple markers of colorectal cancer and advanced adenoma: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Hua; Xia, Bing-Qing; Jiang, Bo; Wang, Guozhen; Yang, Yi-Peng; Chen, Hao; Li, Bing-Sheng; Xu, An-Gao; Huang, Yun-Bo; Wang, Xin-Ying

2013-08-01

The diagnostic value of stool DNA (sDNA) testing for colorectal neoplasms remains controversial. To compensate for the lack of large-scale unbiased population studies, a meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic value of sDNA testing for multiple markers of colorectal cancer (CRC) and advanced adenoma. The PubMed, Science Direct, Biosis Review, Cochrane Library and Embase databases were systematically searched in January 2012 without time restriction. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model using sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic OR (DOR), summary ROC curves, area under the curve (AUC), and 95% CIs as effect measures. Heterogeneity was measured using the χ(2) test and Q statistic; subgroup analysis was also conducted. A total of 20 studies comprising 5876 individuals were eligible. There was no heterogeneity for CRC, but adenoma and advanced adenoma harboured considerable heterogeneity influenced by risk classification and various detection markers. Stratification analysis according to risk classification showed that multiple markers had a high DOR for the high-risk subgroups of both CRC (sensitivity 0.759 [95% CI 0.711 to 0.804]; specificity 0.883 [95% CI 0.846 to 0.913]; AUC 0.906) and advanced adenoma (sensitivity 0.683 [95% CI 0.584 to 0.771]; specificity 0.918 [95% CI 0.866 to 0.954]; AUC 0.946) but not for the average-risk subgroups of either. In the methylation subgroup, sDNA testing had significantly higher DOR for CRC (sensitivity 0.753 [95% CI 0.685 to 0.812]; specificity 0.913 [95% CI 0.860 to 0.950]; AUC 0.918) and advanced adenoma (sensitivity 0.623 [95% CI 0.527 to 0.712]; specificity 0.926 [95% CI 0.882 to 0.958]; AUC 0.910) compared with the mutation subgroup. There was no significant heterogeneity among studies for subgroup analysis. sDNA testing for multiple markers had strong diagnostic significance for CRC and advanced adenoma in high-risk subjects. Methylation makers had more diagnostic value than mutation markers.

Is the Timed Up and Go test a useful predictor of risk of falls in community dwelling older adults: a systematic review and meta- analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Timed Up and Go test (TUG) is a commonly used screening tool to assist clinicians to identify patients at risk of falling. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to determine the overall predictive value of the TUG in community-dwelling older adults. Methods A literature search was performed to identify all studies that validated the TUG test. The methodological quality of the selected studies was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool, a validated tool for the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies. A TUG score of ≥13.5 seconds was used to identify individuals at higher risk of falling. All included studies were combined using a bivariate random effects model to generate pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity at ≥13.5 seconds. Heterogeneity was assessed using the variance of logit transformed sensitivity and specificity. Results Twenty-five studies were included in the systematic review and 10 studies were included in meta-analysis. The TUG test was found to be more useful at ruling in rather than ruling out falls in individuals classified as high risk (>13.5 sec), with a higher pooled specificity (0.74, 95% CI 0.52-0.88) than sensitivity (0.31, 95% CI 0.13-0.57). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the TUG score is not a significant predictor of falls (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.02, p = 0.05). Conclusion The Timed Up and Go test has limited ability to predict falls in community dwelling elderly and should not be used in isolation to identify individuals at high risk of falls in this setting. PMID:24484314

An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

PubMed

Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

2014-06-01

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Orbit Transfer Vehicle (OTV) engine, phase A study. Volume 2: Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellish, J. A.

1979-01-01

The hydrogen oxygen engine used in the orbiter transfer vehicle is described. The engine design is analyzed and minimum engine performance and man rating requirements are discussed. Reliability and safety analysis test results are presented and payload, risk and cost, and engine installation parameters are defined. Engine tests were performed including performance analysis, structural analysis, thermal analysis, turbomachinery analysis, controls analysis, and cycle analysis.

Alcohol Use and Sexual Risks: Use of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) Among Female Sex Workers in China

PubMed Central

Chen, Yiyun; Li, Xiaoming; Zhang, Chen; Hong, Yan; Zhou, Yuejiao; Liu, Wei

2012-01-01

The association between alcohol use and sexual risks among female sex workers (FSWs) has been insufficiently studied. This article reports a cross-sectional study of the relationship between alcohol use risk, measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), and sexual risk behaviors among 1,022 FSWs in Guangxi, China. Bivariate analysis showed that FSWs at higher AUDIT levels tended to have earlier sexual initiation, younger age of involvement in the sex trade and were more vulnerable to sex under the influence of alcohol. Multivariate analysis revealed an independent association of problem drinking with both unprotected sex and a history of sexually transmitted diseases. Alcohol use in commercial sex shall be considered as an occupational hazard that requires immediate intervention. Future longitudinal studies are needed to confirm the association between alcohol use and sexual risks among this most-at-risk population. PMID:23311906

76 FR 81467 - Availability of an Environmental Assessment for Field Testing Swine Influenza Vaccine, RNA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-28

...] Availability of an Environmental Assessment for Field Testing Swine Influenza Vaccine, RNA AGENCY: Animal and... Vaccine, RNA. The environmental assessment, which is based on a risk analysis prepared to assess the risks... veterinary biological product: Requester: Harrisvaccines, Inc. Product: Swine Influenza Vaccine, RNA. Field...

Examining the Efficacy of HIV Risk-Reduction Counseling on the Sexual Risk Behaviors of a National Sample of Drug Abuse Treatment Clients: Analysis of Subgroups.

PubMed

Gooden, Lauren; Metsch, Lisa R; Pereyra, Margaret R; Malotte, C Kevin; Haynes, Louise F; Douaihy, Antoine; Chally, Jack; Mandler, Raul N; Feaster, Daniel J

2016-09-01

HIV counseling with testing has been part of HIV prevention in the U.S. since the 1980s. Despite the long-standing history of HIV testing with prevention counseling, the CDC released HIV testing recommendations for health care settings contesting benefits of prevention counseling with testing in reducing sexual risk behaviors among HIV-negatives in 2006. Efficacy of brief HIV risk-reduction counseling (RRC) in decreasing sexual risk among subgroups of substance use treatment clients was examined using multi-site RCT data. Interaction tests between RRC and subgroups were performed; multivariable regression evaluated the relationship between RRC (with rapid testing) and sex risk. Subgroups were defined by demographics, risk type and level, attitudes/perceptions, and behavioral history. There was an effect (p < .0028) of counseling on number of sex partners among some subgroups. Certain subgroups may benefit from HIV RRC; this should be examined in studies with larger sample sizes, designed to assess the specific subgroup(s).

The Vertical Drop Jump Is a Poor Screening Test for ACL Injuries in Female Elite Soccer and Handball Players: A Prospective Cohort Study of 710 Athletes.

PubMed

Krosshaug, Tron; Steffen, Kathrin; Kristianslund, Eirik; Nilstad, Agnethe; Mok, Kam-Ming; Myklebust, Grethe; Andersen, Thor Einar; Holme, Ingar; Engebretsen, Lars; Bahr, Roald

2016-04-01

The evidence linking knee kinematics and kinetics during a vertical drop jump (VDJ) to anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury risk is restricted to a single small sample. Still, the VDJ test continues to be advocated for clinical screening purposes. To test whether 5 selected kinematic and kinetic variables were associated with future ACL injuries in a large cohort of Norwegian female elite soccer and handball players. Furthermore, we wanted to assess whether the VDJ test can be recommended as a screening test to identify players with increased risk. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Elite female soccer and handball players participated in preseason screening tests from 2007 through 2014. The tests included marker-based 3-dimensional motion analysis of a drop-jump landing. We followed a predefined statistical protocol in which we included the following candidate risk factors in 5 separate logistic regression analyses, with new ACL injury as the outcome: (1) knee valgus angle at initial contact, (2) peak knee abduction moment, (3) peak knee flexion angle, (4) peak vertical ground-reaction force, and (5) medial knee displacement. A total of 782 players were tested (age, 21 ± 4 years; height, 170 ± 7 cm; body mass, 67 ± 8 kg), of which 710 were included in the analyses. We registered 42 new noncontact ACL injuries, including 12 in previously ACL-injured players. Previous ACL injury (relative risk, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.1-7.1) and medial knee displacement (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.12-1.74 per 1-SD change) were associated with increased risk for injury. However, among the 643 players without previous injury, we found no association with medial knee displacement. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of medial knee displacement showed an area under the curve of 0.6, indicating a poor-to-failed combined sensitivity and specificity of the test, even when including previously injured players. Of the 5 risk factors considered, medial knee displacement was the only factor associated with increased risk for ACL. However, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated a poor combined sensitivity and specificity when medial knee displacement was used as a screening test for predicting ACL injury. For players with no previous injury, none of the VDJ variables were associated with increased injury risk. VDJ tests cannot predict ACL injuries in female elite soccer and handball players. © 2016 The Author(s).

Risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities after loop electrosurgical excision procedure.

PubMed

Dietrich, Charles S; Yancey, Michael K; Miyazawa, Kunio; Williams, David L; Farley, John

2002-02-01

To evaluate risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities and recurrent cervical dysplasia after loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP). A retrospective analysis was performed of all pathology records for LEEPs performed at our institution from January 1996 through July 1998. Follow-up cytology from 2 through 12 months after LEEP was reviewed. Patients with abnormal cytology were referred for further colposcopic evaluation. Statistical analysis using chi2 test for trend, proportional hazards model test, Fisher exact tests, and life table analysis were performed to identify risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities after LEEP and to determine relative risk of recurrent dysplasia. A total of 298 women underwent LEEP during the study period, and 29% of these had cytologic abnormalities after LEEP. Grade of dysplasia, ectocervical marginal status, endocervical marginal status, and glandular involvement with dysplasia were not found to be independent risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities. However, when risk factors were analyzed cumulatively, the abnormal cytology rate increased from 24% with no risk factors to 67% with three risk factors present (P =.037). Of patients with abnormal cytology after LEEP, 40% developed subsequent dysplasia, and the mean time to diagnosis was approximately 6 months. The relative risk of subsequent dysplasia ranged from a 20% increase to twice the risk if post-LEEP cytology was low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, respectively. Based on these results, consideration should be given for early colposcopic examination of patients who have evidence of marginal involvement or endocervical glandular involvement with dysplasia. These patients are at increased risk for abnormal cytology and recurrent dysplasia. This initial visit should occur at 6 months, as the mean time to recurrence of dysplasia was 6.5 months.

The impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of developing prostate cancer.

PubMed

Vartolomei, Mihai Dorin; Kimura, Shoji; Ferro, Matteo; Foerster, Beat; Abufaraj, Mohammad; Briganti, Alberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2018-01-01

To investigate the impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). We focused on the differential effect of moderate consumption of red versus white wine. This study was a meta-analysis that includes data from case-control and cohort studies. A systematic search of Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed on December 1, 2017. Studies were deemed eligible if they assessed the risk of PCa due to red, white, or any wine using multivariable logistic regression analysis. We performed a formal meta-analysis for the risk of PCa according to moderate wine and wine type consumption (white or red). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochrane's Q test and I 2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's regression test. A total of 930 abstracts and titles were initially identified. After removal of duplicates, reviews, and conference abstracts, 83 full-text original articles were screened. Seventeen studies (611,169 subjects) were included for final evaluation and fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the case of moderate wine consumption: the pooled risk ratio (RR) for the risk of PCa was 0.98 (95% CI 0.92-1.05, p =0.57) in the multivariable analysis. Moderate white wine consumption increased the risk of PCa with a pooled RR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.10-1.43, p =0.001) in the multi-variable analysis. Meanwhile, moderate red wine consumption had a protective role reducing the risk by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-0.999, p =0.047) in the multivariable analysis that comprised 222,447 subjects. In this meta-analysis, moderate wine consumption did not impact the risk of PCa. Interestingly, regarding the type of wine, moderate consumption of white wine increased the risk of PCa, whereas moderate consumption of red wine had a protective effect. Further analyses are needed to assess the differential molecular effect of white and red wine conferring their impact on PCa risk.

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

PubMed

Jahn, Beate; Rochau, Ursula; Kurzthaler, Christina; Hubalek, Michael; Miksad, Rebecca; Sroczynski, Gaby; Paulden, Mike; Bundo, Marvin; Stenehjem, David; Brixner, Diana; Krahn, Murray; Siebert, Uwe

2017-10-16

Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification. A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed. Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test. Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk. In other words, low ODX risk suggests chemotherapy should not be considered but low AO risk may benefit from chemotherapy if ODX risk is high. Our analysis suggests that risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis, which includes companion prognostic tests are essential in PM.

Male Partner Risk Behaviors Are Associated With Reactive Rapid HIV Antibody Tests Among Pregnant Mexican Women: Implications for Prevention of Vertical and Sexual HIV Transmission in Concentrated HIV Epidemics.

PubMed

Rivero, Estela; Kendall, Tamil

2015-01-01

Mexico's policies on antenatal HIV testing are contradictory, and little is known about social and behavioral characteristics that increase pregnant Mexican women's risks of acquiring HIV. We analyzed the association between risk behaviors reported by pregnant women for themselves and their male partners, and women's rapid HIV antibody test results from a large national sample. Three quarters of pregnant women with a reactive test did not report risk behaviors for themselves and one third did not report risk behaviors for themselves or their male partners. In the retrospective case-control analysis, other than reporting multiple sexual partners, reactive pregnant women reported risk behaviors did not differ from nonreactive women's behaviors. However, reactive pregnant women were significantly more likely to have reported risk behaviors for male partners. Our findings support universal offer of antenatal HIV testing and suggest that HIV prevention for women should focus on reducing risk of HIV acquisition within stable relationships. Copyright © 2015 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The development and testing of a skin tear risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Newall, Nelly; Lewin, Gill F; Bulsara, Max K; Carville, Keryln J; Leslie, Gavin D; Roberts, Pam A

2017-02-01

The aim of the present study is to develop a reliable and valid skin tear risk assessment tool. The six characteristics identified in a previous case control study as constituting the best risk model for skin tear development were used to construct a risk assessment tool. The ability of the tool to predict skin tear development was then tested in a prospective study. Between August 2012 and September 2013, 1466 tertiary hospital patients were assessed at admission and followed up for 10 days to see if they developed a skin tear. The predictive validity of the tool was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. When the tool was found not to have performed as well as hoped, secondary analyses were performed to determine whether a potentially better performing risk model could be identified. The tool was found to have high sensitivity but low specificity and therefore have inadequate predictive validity. Secondary analysis of the combined data from this and the previous case control study identified an alternative better performing risk model. The tool developed and tested in this study was found to have inadequate predictive validity. The predictive validity of an alternative, more parsimonious model now needs to be tested. © 2015 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recurrence risk model for esophageal cancer after radical surgery.

PubMed

Lu, Jincheng; Tao, Hua; Song, Dan; Chen, Cheng

2013-10-01

The aim of the present study was to construct a risk assessment model which was tested by disease-free survival (DFS) of esophageal cancer after radical surgery. A total of 164 consecutive esophageal cancer patients who had undergone radical surgery between January 2005 and December 2006 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutpoint of value at risk (VaR) was inferred by stem-and-leaf plot, as well as by independent-samples t-test for recurrence-free time, further confirmed by crosstab chi-square test, univariate analysis and Cox regression analysis for DFS. The cutpoint of VaR was 0.3 on the basis of our model. The rate of recurrence was 30.3% (30/99) and 52.3% (34/65) in VaR <0.3 and VaR ≥0.3 (chi-square test, (χ) (2) =7.984, P=0.005), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS of esophageal cancer after radical surgery was 70.4%, 48.7%, and 45.3%, respectively in VaR ≥0.3, whereas 91.5%, 75.8%, and 67.3%, respectively in VaR <0.3 (Log-rank test, (χ) (2) =9.59, P=0.0020), and further confirmed by Cox regression analysis [hazard ratio =2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2649-3.4751; P=0.0041]. The model could be applied for integrated assessment of recurrence risk after radical surgery for esophageal cancer.

Recurrence risk model for esophageal cancer after radical surgery

PubMed Central

Tao, Hua; Song, Dan; Chen, Cheng

2013-01-01

Objective The aim of the present study was to construct a risk assessment model which was tested by disease-free survival (DFS) of esophageal cancer after radical surgery. Methods A total of 164 consecutive esophageal cancer patients who had undergone radical surgery between January 2005 and December 2006 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutpoint of value at risk (VaR) was inferred by stem-and-leaf plot, as well as by independent-samples t-test for recurrence-free time, further confirmed by crosstab chi-square test, univariate analysis and Cox regression analysis for DFS. Results The cutpoint of VaR was 0.3 on the basis of our model. The rate of recurrence was 30.3% (30/99) and 52.3% (34/65) in VaR <0.3 and VaR ≥0.3 (chi-square test, χ2 =7.984, P=0.005), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS of esophageal cancer after radical surgery was 70.4%, 48.7%, and 45.3%, respectively in VaR ≥0.3, whereas 91.5%, 75.8%, and 67.3%, respectively in VaR <0.3 (Log-rank test, χ2 =9.59, P=0.0020), and further confirmed by Cox regression analysis [hazard ratio =2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2649-3.4751; P=0.0041]. Conclusions The model could be applied for integrated assessment of recurrence risk after radical surgery for esophageal cancer. PMID:24255579

Chair rise transfer detection and analysis using a pendant sensor: an algorithm for fall risk assessment in older people.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Regterschot, G Ruben H; Wahle, Fabian; Geraedts, Hilde; Baldus, Heribert; Zijlstra, Wiebren

2014-01-01

Falls result in substantial disability, morbidity, and mortality among older people. Early detection of fall risks and timely intervention can prevent falls and injuries due to falls. Simple field tests, such as repeated chair rise, are used in clinical assessment of fall risks in older people. Development of on-body sensors introduces potential beneficial alternatives for traditional clinical methods. In this article, we present a pendant sensor based chair rise detection and analysis algorithm for fall risk assessment in older people. The recall and the precision of the transfer detection were 85% and 87% in standard protocol, and 61% and 89% in daily life activities. Estimation errors of chair rise performance indicators: duration, maximum acceleration, peak power and maximum jerk were tested in over 800 transfers. Median estimation error in transfer peak power ranged from 1.9% to 4.6% in various tests. Among all the performance indicators, maximum acceleration had the lowest median estimation error of 0% and duration had the highest median estimation error of 24% over all tests. The developed algorithm might be feasible for continuous fall risk assessment in older people.

Unraveling the thrombophilia paradox: from hypercoagulability to the prothrombotic state.

PubMed

Baglin, T

2010-02-01

The thrombophilia paradox whereby thrombophilia testing identifies defects associated with an increased risk of a first venous thrombosis but not of a particularly high risk of recurrence is likely the result of limitations imposed by a limited dichotomous testing strategy compounded by test inaccuracy and imprecision. Consequently, the observed intermediate phenotype (defined by limited laboratory test results) is not fully concordant with the heritable genotype. The next generation of thrombophilia tests, which utilize either individual genomic analysis or global measurement of the composite plasma intermediate phenotype, may more accurately quantify the thrombophilic risk. In conjunction with clinical risk assessment a more quantitative measurement of hypercoagulability and definition of the prothrombotic state should facilitate transition of clinical management from a disease-focused to a more patient-focused strategy.

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Michael J.; Grinstead, Jay H.; Bose, Deepak

2007-01-01

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Banerjee, Anjishnu

2015-01-01

Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot-ankle-leg complex. Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot-ankle-leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies. Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels. These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.

Association of polypharmacy with fall risk among geriatric outpatients.

PubMed

Kojima, Taro; Akishita, Masahiro; Nakamura, Tetsuro; Nomura, Kazushi; Ogawa, Sumito; Iijima, Katsuya; Eto, Masato; Ouchi, Yasuyoshi

2011-10-01

To investigate the association of fall risk with comorbidities and medications in geriatric outpatients in a cross-sectional design.   A total of 262 outpatients (84 men and 178 women, mean age 76.2±6.8years) were evaluated. Physical examination, clinical histories and medication profile were obtained from each patient. History of falls in the past year, 22-item fall risk index, 13-point simple screening test for fall, and time interval of one-leg standing test were examined as markers of fall risk. On univariate analysis, older age, female sex, hypertension, osteoporosis, history of stroke, number of comorbidities, use of antihypertensives, aspirin, bisphosphonates, hypnotics and number of prescribed drugs were significantly associated with either of four indices. On multiple regression analysis, the number of drugs was associated with all of the four indices, independent of other factors associated in the univariate analysis. The association of number of drugs with fall risk indices was stepwise. In geriatric outpatients, polypharmacy rather than number of comorbidities was associated with fall risk. Prospective and intervention studies are needed to clarify the causal relationship between polypharmacy, comorbidities and fall risk. © 2011 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Risk assessment, genetic counseling, and genetic testing for BRCA-related cancer in women: a systematic review to update the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation.

PubMed

Nelson, Heidi D; Pappas, Miranda; Zakher, Bernadette; Mitchell, Jennifer Priest; Okinaka-Hu, Leila; Fu, Rongwei

2014-02-18

Mutations in breast cancer susceptibility genes (BRCA1 and BRCA2) are associated with increased risks for breast, ovarian, and other types of cancer. To review new evidence on the benefits and harms of risk assessment, genetic counseling, and genetic testing for BRCA-related cancer in women. MEDLINE and PsycINFO between 2004 and 30 July 2013, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from 2004 through the second quarter of 2013, Health Technology Assessment during the fourth quarter of 2012, Scopus, and reference lists. English-language studies about accuracy of risk assessment and benefits and harms of genetic counseling, genetic testing, and interventions to reduce cancer incidence and mortality. Individual investigators extracted data on participants, study design, analysis, follow-up, and results, and a second investigator confirmed key data. Investigators independently dual-rated study quality and applicability by using established criteria. Five referral models accurately estimated individual risk for BRCA mutations. Genetic counseling increased the accuracy of risk perception and decreases the intention for genetic testing among unlikely carriers and cancer-related worry, anxiety, and depression. No trials evaluated the effectiveness of intensive screening or risk-reducing medications in mutation carriers, although false-positive rates, unneeded imaging, and unneeded surgeries were higher with screening. Among high-risk women and mutation carriers, risk-reducing mastectomy decreased breast cancer by 85% to 100% and breast cancer mortality by 81% to 100% compared with women without surgery; risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy decreased breast cancer incidence by 37% to 100%, ovarian cancer by 69% to 100%, and all-cause mortality by 55% to 100%. The analysis included only English-language articles;efficacy trials in mutation carriers were lacking. Studies of risk assessment, genetic counseling, genetic testing, and interventions to reduce cancer and mortality indicate potential benefits and harms that vary according to risk.

Use of the Analysis of the Volatile Faecal Metabolome in Screening for Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Diagnosis of colorectal cancer is an invasive and expensive colonoscopy, which is usually carried out after a positive screening test. Unfortunately, existing screening tests lack specificity and sensitivity, hence many unnecessary colonoscopies are performed. Here we report on a potential new screening test for colorectal cancer based on the analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the headspace of faecal samples. Faecal samples were obtained from subjects who had a positive faecal occult blood sample (FOBT). Subjects subsequently had colonoscopies performed to classify them into low risk (non-cancer) and high risk (colorectal cancer) groups. Volatile organic compounds were analysed by selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry (SIFT-MS) and then data were analysed using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods. Ions most likely from hydrogen sulphide, dimethyl sulphide and dimethyl disulphide are statistically significantly higher in samples from high risk rather than low risk subjects. Results using multivariate methods show that the test gives a correct classification of 75% with 78% specificity and 72% sensitivity on FOBT positive samples, offering a potentially effective alternative to FOBT. PMID:26086914

Analysis of risk factors for central venous port failure in cancer patients

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Ching-Chuan; Weng, Hsu-Huei; Huang, Wen-Shih; Wang, Wen-Ke; Kao, Chiung-Lun; Lu, Ming-Shian; Wang, Chia-Siu

2009-01-01

AIM: To analyze the risk factors for central port failure in cancer patients administered chemotherapy, using univariate and multivariate analyses. METHODS: A total of 1348 totally implantable venous access devices (TIVADs) were implanted into 1280 cancer patients in this cohort study. A Cox proportional hazard model was applied to analyze risk factors for failure of TIVADs. Log-rank test was used to compare actuarial survival rates. Infection, thrombosis, and surgical complication rates (χ2 test or Fisher’s exact test) were compared in relation to the risk factors. RESULTS: Increasing age, male gender and open-ended catheter use were significant risk factors reducing survival of TIVADs as determined by univariate and multivariate analyses. Hematogenous malignancy decreased the survival time of TIVADs; this reduction was not statistically significant by univariate analysis [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.336, 95% CI: 0.966-1.849, P = 0.080)]. However, it became a significant risk factor by multivariate analysis (HR = 1.499, 95% CI: 1.079-2.083, P = 0.016) when correlated with variables of age, sex and catheter type. Close-ended (Groshong) catheters had a lower thrombosis rate than open-ended catheters (2.5% vs 5%, P = 0.015). Hematogenous malignancy had higher infection rates than solid malignancy (10.5% vs 2.5%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Increasing age, male gender, open-ended catheters and hematogenous malignancy were risk factors for TIVAD failure. Close-ended catheters had lower thrombosis rates and hematogenous malignancy had higher infection rates. PMID:19787834

Motivations for genetic testing for lung cancer risk among young smokers.

PubMed

O'Neill, Suzanne C; Lipkus, Isaac M; Sanderson, Saskia C; Shepperd, James; Docherty, Sharron; McBride, Colleen M

2013-11-01

To examine why young people might want to undergo genetic susceptibility testing for lung cancer despite knowing that tested gene variants are associated with small increases in disease risk. The authors used a mixed-method approach to evaluate motives for and against genetic testing and the association between these motivations and testing intentions in 128 college students who smoke. Exploratory factor analysis yielded four reliable factors: Test Scepticism, Test Optimism, Knowledge Enhancement and Smoking Optimism. Test Optimism and Knowledge Enhancement correlated positively with intentions to test in bivariate and multivariate analyses (ps<0.001). Test Scepticism correlated negatively with testing intentions in multivariate analyses (p<0.05). Open-ended questions assessing testing motivations generally replicated themes of the quantitative survey. In addition to learning about health risks, young people may be motivated to seek genetic testing for reasons, such as gaining knowledge about new genetic technologies more broadly.

Ensemble habitat mapping of invasive plant species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Ma, P.; Kumar, S.; Rocca, M.; Morisette, J.T.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Benson, N.

2010-01-01

Ensemble species distribution models combine the strengths of several species environmental matching models, while minimizing the weakness of any one model. Ensemble models may be particularly useful in risk analysis of recently arrived, harmful invasive species because species may not yet have spread to all suitable habitats, leaving species-environment relationships difficult to determine. We tested five individual models (logistic regression, boosted regression trees, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and maximum entropy model or Maxent) and ensemble modeling for selected nonnative plant species in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, Wyoming; Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, and areas of interior Alaska. The models are based on field data provided by the park staffs, combined with topographic, climatic, and vegetation predictors derived from satellite data. For the four invasive plant species tested, ensemble models were the only models that ranked in the top three models for both field validation and test data. Ensemble models may be more robust than individual species-environment matching models for risk analysis. ?? 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Determining post-test risk in a national sample of stress nuclear myocardial perfusion imaging reports: Implications for natural language processing tools.

PubMed

Levy, Andrew E; Shah, Nishant R; Matheny, Michael E; Reeves, Ruth M; Gobbel, Glenn T; Bradley, Steven M

2018-04-25

Reporting standards promote clarity and consistency of stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) reports, but do not require an assessment of post-test risk. Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools could potentially help estimate this risk, yet it is unknown whether reports contain adequate descriptive data to use NLP. Among VA patients who underwent stress MPI and coronary angiography between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011, 99 stress test reports were randomly selected for analysis. Two reviewers independently categorized each report for the presence of critical data elements essential to describing post-test ischemic risk. Few stress MPI reports provided a formal assessment of post-test risk within the impression section (3%) or the entire document (4%). In most cases, risk was determinable by combining critical data elements (74% impression, 98% whole). If ischemic risk was not determinable (25% impression, 2% whole), inadequate description of systolic function (9% impression, 1% whole) and inadequate description of ischemia (5% impression, 1% whole) were most commonly implicated. Post-test ischemic risk was determinable but rarely reported in this sample of stress MPI reports. This supports the potential use of NLP to help clarify risk. Further study of NLP in this context is needed.

Interaction of Reward Seeking and Self-Regulation in the Prediction of Risk Taking: A Cross-National Test of the Dual Systems Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duell, Natasha; Steinberg, Laurence; Chein, Jason; Al-Hassan, Suha M.; Bacchini, Dario; Lei, Chang; Chaudhary, Nandita; Di Giunta, Laura; Dodge, Kenneth A.; Fanti, Kostas A.; Lansford, Jennifer E.; Malone, Patrick S.; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta; Skinner, Ann T.; Sorbring, Emma; Tapanya, Sombat; Uribe Tirado, Liliana Maria; Alampay, Liane Peña

2016-01-01

In the present analysis, we test the dual systems model of adolescent risk taking in a cross-national sample of over 5,200 individuals aged 10 through 30 (M = 17.05 years, SD = 5.91) from 11 countries. We examine whether reward seeking and self-regulation make independent, additive, or interactive contributions to risk taking, and ask whether…

Human errors and measurement uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca

2015-04-01

Evaluating the residual risk of human errors in a measurement and testing laboratory, remaining after the error reduction by the laboratory quality system, and quantifying the consequences of this risk for the quality of the measurement/test results are discussed based on expert judgments and Monte Carlo simulations. A procedure for evaluation of the contribution of the residual risk to the measurement uncertainty budget is proposed. Examples are provided using earlier published sets of expert judgments on human errors in pH measurement of groundwater, elemental analysis of geological samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and multi-residue analysis of pesticides in fruits and vegetables. The human error contribution to the measurement uncertainty budget in the examples was not negligible, yet also not dominant. This was assessed as a good risk management result.

The Prevalence of Antenatal Depression and its Related Factors in Chinese Pregnant Women who Present with Obstetrical Complications.

PubMed

Zhao, Ying; Kane, Irene; Mao, Liping; Shi, Shenxun; Wang, Jing; Lin, Qiping; Luo, Jianfeng

2016-06-01

The psychological status of Chinese pregnant women who present with obstetrical complications is concerning to Chinese health professionals. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of antenatal depression and analyzed related risk factors in a population of high-risk Chinese women. A large sample size, cross-sectional study. A total of 842 pregnant women with complications completed the Chinese version of the Postpartum Depression Screen Scale (PDSS) in this cross-sectional study. t-Test, ANOVA and Binary logistic regression tests were used in data analysis of antenatal depression and risk factors. The prevalence of major or minor depression in high-risk Chinese pregnant women during antenatal period was 8.3% and 28.9%, respectively. Independent-sample t-test and two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated significant differences in age, education, occupation and the number of complications (P<0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis indicated a significant negative association between depression and education (P<0.01) with lower educational level (OR: 0.590; 95% CI: 0.424-0.820) associated with a higher risk for depression. A significant positive association was observed between depression and age (P<0.05) with higher age (OR: 1.338; 95% CI: 1.008-1.774) correlated with a higher risk for depression. Women who experienced obstetric complications presented with higher PDSS depression scores. Screening for antenatal depression in high-risk pregnant women to promote early detection of depression and reduce health risks for universal health promotion is recommended. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

LESSONS FROM A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF A 5-YR PERIOD OF PRESHIPMENT TESTING AT SAN DIEGO ZOO: A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO PRESHIPMENT TESTING MAY BENEFIT ANIMAL WELFARE.

PubMed

Marinkovich, Matt; Wallace, Chelsea; Morris, Pat J; Rideout, Bruce; Pye, Geoffrey W

2016-03-01

The preshipment examination, with associated transmissible disease testing, has become standard practice in the movement of animals between zoos. An alternative disease risk-based approach, based on a comprehensive surveillance program including necropsy and preventive medicine examination testing and data, has been in practice since 2006 between the San Diego Zoo and San Diego Zoo Safari Park. A retrospective analysis, evaluating comprehensive necropsy data and preshipment testing over a 5-yr study period, was performed to determine the viability of this model for use with sending animals to other institutions. Animals (607 birds, 704 reptiles and amphibians, and 341 mammals) were shipped to 116 Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA)-accredited and 29 non-AZA-accredited institutions. The evaluation showed no evidence of the specific transmissible diseases tested for during the preshipment exam being present within the San Diego Zoo collection. We suggest that a risk-based animal and institution-specific approach to transmissible disease preshipment testing is more cost effective and is in the better interest of animal welfare than the current industry standard of dogmatic preshipment testing.

A cross-sectional study of low HIV testing frequency and high-risk behaviour among men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru.

PubMed

Lee, Sky W; Deiss, Robert G; Segura, Eddy R; Clark, Jesse L; Lake, Jordan E; Konda, Kelika A; Coates, Thomas J; Caceres, Carlos F

2015-04-21

Increased HIV testing frequency among high-risk populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM) and male-to-female transgender women (TW) can lead to earlier treatment and potentially reduce HIV transmission. We analyzed baseline survey data from 718 high-risk, young (median age 29 [interquartile range 23-35]) MSM/TW enrolled in a community-based HIV prevention trial between 2008-2009. Participants were recruited from 24 neighborhoods in and around Lima, Peru. We assessed HIV testing frequency, testing behaviour, and motivations and barriers to testing. Multivariate analysis identified correlates to prior HIV testing. Overall, 79.6% reported HIV testing within their lifetimes, however, only 6.2% reported an average of two tests per year, as per Peruvian Ministry of Health guidelines. The most commonly reported motivators for testing were to check one's health (23.3%), lack of condom use (19.7%), and availability of free testing (14.0%), while low self-perceived risk for HIV (46.9%), fear of a positive result (42.0%), and lack of access to testing services (35.7%) were the most frequently reported barriers. In multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with HIV testing included age [adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) 1.00, 95% CI (1.00-1.01)], transgender-identification vs. gay-identification [APR 1.11, 95% CI (1.03-1.20)], history of transactional sex [APR 1.16, 95% CI (1.07-1.27)], and prior sexually transmitted infection diagnosis [APR 1.15, 95% CI (1.07-1.24)]. An overwhelming majority of participants did not meet the standard-of-care for testing frequency. The reported motivations and barriers to testing highlight issues of risk perception and accessibility. Our findings suggest utilizing non-traditional outreach methods and promoting HIV testing as a routine part of healthcare in Peru to encourage testing and knowledge of HIV serostatus.

Evaluating the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of the radon remediation programme in domestic properties in Northamptonshire, UK.

PubMed

Denman, Antony; Groves-Kirkby, Christopher; Coskeran, Thomas; Parkinson, Steven; Phillips, Paul; Tornberg, Roges

2005-08-01

Although previous analysis of health benefits and cost-effectiveness of radon remediation in a series of houses in Northamptonshire suggested that testing and remediation was justified, recent results indicate fewer predicted affected houses than previously assumed. Despite numerous awareness campaigns, limited numbers of householders have tested their homes, only a minority of affected householders have remediated, and those most at risk generally fail to remediate. Moreover, a recent survey shows a wide range of public perception of radon risk, not significantly influenced by public health campaigns. These observations impact our previous analysis, which has been reviewed in the light of these observations. Following the declaration of Northamptonshire, UK, as a radon Affected Area in 1992, a series of public awareness campaigns encouraged householders to assess domestic radon levels and, if appropriate, to take action to reduce them. Despite these awareness campaigns, however, only moderate numbers of householders have taken remediatory action. The costs of such remedial work in a series of domestic properties in Northamptonshire, the radon level reduction achieved, and the resultant heath benefit to the residents, have been the subject of study by our group for some years. Previous analysis, based on estimates of the total number of affected houses derived from the National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) test data for the area, suggested that a programme of testing and remediation in Northamptonshire could be justified. The NRPB has continued to initiate and to collate radon testing, and published further results in 2003. These results include revised predictions of the numbers of affected houses, now considered to be less than the numbers previously assumed. More recently, the availability of the European Community Radon Software (ECRS) has permitted calculation of individual, rather than population-average, risk, demonstrating that those most at risk are generally those who do not take action. In addition, a recent survey of risk perception shows an extremely wide range of public perception of radon risk, a perception that has not been significantly altered by public health campaigns. These predictions have profound effects, both on our previous analysis, particularly since only limited numbers of householders test their homes and even fewer remediate if they discover raised levels, and also on the public health strategies for this risk.

Reducing the Risk of Human Space Missions with INTEGRITY

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merill, Robin L.; Tri, Terry O.; Henninger, Donald L.

2003-01-01

The INTEGRITY Program will design and operate a test bed facility to help prepare for future beyond-LEO missions. The purpose of INTEGRITY is to enable future missions by developing, testing, and demonstrating advanced human space systems. INTEGRITY will also implement and validate advanced management techniques including risk analysis and mitigation. One important way INTEGRITY will help enable future missions is by reducing their risk. A risk analysis of human space missions is important in defining the steps that INTEGRITY should take to mitigate risk. This paper describes how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of human space missions will help support the planning and development of INTEGRITY to maximize its benefits to future missions. PRA is a systematic methodology to decompose the system into subsystems and components, to quantify the failure risk as a function of the design elements and their corresponding probability of failure. PRA provides a quantitative estimate of the probability of failure of the system, including an assessment and display of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the probability. PRA provides a basis for understanding the impacts of decisions that affect safety, reliability, performance, and cost. Risks with both high probability and high impact are identified as top priority. The PRA of human missions beyond Earth orbit will help indicate how the risk of future human space missions can be reduced by integrating and testing systems in INTEGRITY.

Heart Rate Variability Dynamics for the Prognosis of Cardiovascular Risk

PubMed Central

Ramirez-Villegas, Juan F.; Lam-Espinosa, Eric; Ramirez-Moreno, David F.; Calvo-Echeverry, Paulo C.; Agredo-Rodriguez, Wilfredo

2011-01-01

Statistical, spectral, multi-resolution and non-linear methods were applied to heart rate variability (HRV) series linked with classification schemes for the prognosis of cardiovascular risk. A total of 90 HRV records were analyzed: 45 from healthy subjects and 45 from cardiovascular risk patients. A total of 52 features from all the analysis methods were evaluated using standard two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test). The results of the statistical procedure provided input to multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks, radial basis function (RBF) neural networks and support vector machines (SVM) for data classification. These schemes showed high performances with both training and test sets and many combinations of features (with a maximum accuracy of 96.67%). Additionally, there was a strong consideration for breathing frequency as a relevant feature in the HRV analysis. PMID:21386966

Advantage of the modified Lunn-McNeil technique over Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique in competing risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukman, Iing; Ibrahim, Noor A.; Daud, Isa B.; Maarof, Fauziah; Hassan, Mohd N.

2002-03-01

Survival analysis algorithm is often applied in the data mining process. Cox regression is one of the survival analysis tools that has been used in many areas, and it can be used to analyze the failure times of aircraft crashed. Another survival analysis tool is the competing risks where we have more than one cause of failure acting simultaneously. Lunn-McNeil analyzed the competing risks in the survival model using Cox regression with censored data. The modified Lunn-McNeil technique is a simplify of the Lunn-McNeil technique. The Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique is involving fitting models separately from each type of failure, treating other failure types as censored. To compare the two techniques, (the modified Lunn-McNeil and Kalbfleisch-Prentice) a simulation study was performed. Samples with various sizes and censoring percentages were generated and fitted using both techniques. The study was conducted by comparing the inference of models, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the power tests, and the Schoenfeld residual analysis. The power tests in this study were likelihood ratio test, Rao-score test, and Wald statistics. The Schoenfeld residual analysis was conducted to check the proportionality of the model through its covariates. The estimated parameters were computed for the cause-specific hazard situation. Results showed that the modified Lunn-McNeil technique was better than the Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique based on the RMSE measurement and Schoenfeld residual analysis. However, the Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique was better than the modified Lunn-McNeil technique based on power tests measurement.

Proposal for a new categorization of aseptic processing facilities based on risk assessment scores.

PubMed

Katayama, Hirohito; Toda, Atsushi; Tokunaga, Yuji; Katoh, Shigeo

2008-01-01

Risk assessment of aseptic processing facilities was performed using two published risk assessment tools. Calculated risk scores were compared with experimental test results, including environmental monitoring and media fill run results, in three different types of facilities. The two risk assessment tools used gave a generally similar outcome. However, depending on the tool used, variations were observed in the relative scores between the facilities. For the facility yielding the lowest risk scores, the corresponding experimental test results showed no contamination, indicating that these ordinal testing methods are insufficient to evaluate this kind of facility. A conventional facility having acceptable aseptic processing lines gave relatively high risk scores. The facility showing a rather high risk score demonstrated the usefulness of conventional microbiological test methods. Considering the significant gaps observed in calculated risk scores and in the ordinal microbiological test results between advanced and conventional facilities, we propose a facility categorization based on risk assessment. The most important risk factor in aseptic processing is human intervention. When human intervention is eliminated from the process by advanced hardware design, the aseptic processing facility can be classified into a new risk category that is better suited for assuring sterility based on a new set of criteria rather than on currently used microbiological analysis. To fully benefit from advanced technologies, we propose three risk categories for these aseptic facilities.

Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from postmortem human subject tests under axial impacts.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Szabo, Aniko

2014-01-01

Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. The study reexamined lower leg postmortem human subjects (PMHS) data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and noninjury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the covariable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal, and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike information criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. The mean age, stature, and weight were 58.2±15.1 years, 1.74±0.08 m, and 74.9±13.8 kg, respectively. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other 2 distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-olds at 5, 25, and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45, and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk; and 10.4, 8.3, and 6.6 kN at 50% risk, respectively. This study derived axial loading-induced injury risk curves based on survival analysis using peak force and specimen age; adopting different censoring schemes; considering overly influential samples in the analysis; and assessing the quality of the distribution at discrete probability levels. Because procedures used in the present survival analysis are accepted by international automotive communities, current optimum human injury probability distributions can be used at all risk levels with more confidence in future crashworthiness applications for automotive and other disciplines.

Ares I-X Malfunction Turn Range Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaty, J. R.

2011-01-01

Ares I-X was the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares I rocket which was developed by NASA (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) component of the Constellation Program). The Ares I-X flight test vehicle achieved a successful flight test on October 28, 2009, from Pad LC-39B at Kennedy Space Center, Florida (KSC). As part of the flight plan approval for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could have caused the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path. The effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version II (POST2) simulation tool. The Ares I-X simulation analysis provided output files containing vehicle trajectory state information. These were used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at KSC, and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer in the event of a flight test anomaly of the vehicle. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study.

Criminal law and HIV testing: empirical analysis of how at-risk individuals respond to the law.

PubMed

Lee, Sun Goo

2014-01-01

This Note assesses the effect of laws that specifically criminalize behaviors that expose others to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This Note examines the relationship between HIV testing decisions by high-risk individuals and the existence of these HIV-specific statutes, as well as the amount of media coverage related to them. One of the main reasons public health experts criticize criminalization of HIV-exposing behavior is that it may discourage at-risk individuals from undergoing HIV testing. This argument, however, remains empirically untested to date. This study quantitatively examines whether at-risk individuals living in jurisdictions with HIV-specific statutes are less likely to report having been tested for HIV in the past year compared to those living in jurisdictions without HIV-specific statutes. Regression analysis is conducted using data collected in the United States over a seven-year span. The results show that at-risk individuals residing in states with HIV-specific statutes are no less likely to report having been tested for HIV than those who live in other states. However, the number of people who reported that they had been tested for HIV is inversely correlated with the frequency of newspaper coverage of criminalization of HIV-exposing behavior. These findings imply that at-risk individuals' HIV testing is associated with media coverage of criminalizing HIV-exposing behavior. The negative impact that criminal law has on HIV testing rates could be a serious public health threat. Testing is often the initial step in public health interventions that most effectively modify the risky behavior of HIV-positive individuals. The adverse consequence of criminalization should weigh heavily in the design and application of criminal sanctions for HIV-exposing behavior. In addition, future research should further explore the relationships between criminalization, media coverage of criminalization, and HIV testing decisions for a more nuanced understanding of the consequences of criminalization.

UK NHS pilot study on cell-free DNA testing in screening for fetal trisomies: factors affecting uptake.

PubMed

Gil, M M; Giunta, G; Macalli, E A; Poon, L C; Nicolaides, K H

2015-01-01

This study reports on the clinical implementation of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing, contingent on the results of the combined test, in screening for fetal trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in two UK National Health Service hospitals. Women with a combined-test risk of ≥ 1:100 (high risk) were offered the options of chorionic villus sampling (CVS), cfDNA testing or no further testing and those with a risk of 1:101 to 1:2500 (intermediate risk) were offered cfDNA or no further testing. The objective of the study was to examine the factors affecting patient decisions concerning their options. Combined screening was performed in 6651 singleton pregnancies in which the risk for trisomies was high in 260 (3.9%), intermediate in 2017 (30.3%) and low in 4374 (65.8%). Logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors among maternal characteristics, fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and risk for trisomies were significant predictors of opting for CVS in the high-risk group and opting for cfDNA testing in the intermediate-risk group. In the high-risk group, 104 (40.0%) women opted for CVS; predictors for CVS were increasing fetal NT and increasing risk for trisomies, while the predictor against CVS was being of Afro-Caribbean racial origin (r = 0.366). In the intermediate-risk group, 1850 (91.7%) women opted for cfDNA testing; predictors for cfDNA testing were increasing maternal age, increasing risk for trisomies and university education, while predictors against cfDNA testing were being of Afro-Caribbean racial origin, smoking and being parous (r = 0.105). This study has identified factors that can influence the decision of women undergoing combined screening in favor of or against CVS and in favor of or against cfDNA testing. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantitative Approach to Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Linear Accelerator Quality Assurance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Daniel, Jennifer C., E-mail: jennifer.odaniel@duke.edu; Yin, Fang-Fang

Purpose: To determine clinic-specific linear accelerator quality assurance (QA) TG-142 test frequencies, to maximize physicist time efficiency and patient treatment quality. Methods and Materials: A novel quantitative approach to failure mode and effect analysis is proposed. Nine linear accelerator-years of QA records provided data on failure occurrence rates. The severity of test failure was modeled by introducing corresponding errors into head and neck intensity modulated radiation therapy treatment plans. The relative risk of daily linear accelerator QA was calculated as a function of frequency of test performance. Results: Although the failure severity was greatest for daily imaging QA (imaging vsmore » treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning), the failure occurrence rate was greatest for output and laser testing. The composite ranking results suggest that performing output and lasers tests daily, imaging versus treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning tests weekly, and optical distance indicator and jaws versus light field tests biweekly would be acceptable for non-stereotactic radiosurgery/stereotactic body radiation therapy linear accelerators. Conclusions: Failure mode and effect analysis is a useful tool to determine the relative importance of QA tests from TG-142. Because there are practical time limitations on how many QA tests can be performed, this analysis highlights which tests are the most important and suggests the frequency of testing based on each test's risk priority number.« less

Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

2014-01-01

For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

PubMed

Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

2018-03-01

Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

Risk factors for faecal sand excretion in Icelandic horses.

PubMed

Husted, L; Andersen, M S; Borggaard, O K; Houe, H; Olsen, S N

2005-07-01

Sandy soil is often mentioned as a risk factor in the development of sand-related gastrointestinal disease (SGID) in the horse. There are other variables, but few studies confirm any of these. To investigate soil type, pasture quality, feeding practice in the paddock, age, sex and body condition score as risk factors for sand intake in the horse. Faeces were collected from 211 Icelandic horses on 19 different studs in Denmark together with soil samples and other potential risk factors. Sand content in faeces determined by a sand sedimentation test was interpreted as evidence of sand intake. Soil types were identified by soil analysis and significance of the data was tested using logistic analysis. Of horses included in the study, 56.4% showed sand in the faeces and 5.7% had more than 5 mm sand as quantified by the rectal sleeve sedimentation test. Soil type had no significant effect when tested as main effect, but there was interaction between soil type and pasture quality. Significant interactions were also found between paddock feeding practice and pasture quality. To evaluate the risk of sand intake it is important to consider 3 variables: soil type, pasture quality and feeding practice. Pasture quality was identified as a risk factor of both short and long grass in combination with sandy soil, while clay soil had the lowest risk in these combinations. Feeding practice in the paddock revealed feeding directly on the ground to be a risk factor when there was short (1-5 cm) or no grass. Also, no feeding outdoors increased the risk on pastures with short grass, while this had no effect in paddocks with no grass. More than 50% of all horses investigated in this study had sand in the faeces. The identification of risk factors is an important step towards prevention of SGID. Further research is necessary to determine why some horses exhibit more than 5 mm sand in the sedimentation test and whether this is correlated with geophagic behaviour.

Buffet test in the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Clarence P., Jr.; Hergert, Dennis W.; Butler, Thomas W.; Herring, Fred M.

1992-01-01

A buffet test of a commercial transport model was accomplished in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. This aeroelastic test was unprecedented for this wind tunnel and posed a high risk for the facility. Presented here are the test results from a structural dynamics and aeroelastic response point of view. The activities required for the safety analysis and risk assessment are described. The test was conducted in the same manner as a flutter test and employed on-board dynamic instrumentation, real time dynamic data monitoring, and automatic and manual tunnel interlock systems for protecting the model.

Risk prediction for chronic kidney disease progression using heterogeneous electronic health record data and time series analysis.

PubMed

Perotte, Adler; Ranganath, Rajesh; Hirsch, Jamie S; Blei, David; Elhadad, Noémie

2015-07-01

As adoption of electronic health records continues to increase, there is an opportunity to incorporate clinical documentation as well as laboratory values and demographics into risk prediction modeling. The authors develop a risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression from stage III to stage IV that includes longitudinal data and features drawn from clinical documentation. The study cohort consisted of 2908 primary-care clinic patients who had at least three visits prior to January 1, 2013 and developed CKD stage III during their documented history. Development and validation cohorts were randomly selected from this cohort and the study datasets included longitudinal inpatient and outpatient data from these populations. Time series analysis (Kalman filter) and survival analysis (Cox proportional hazards) were combined to produce a range of risk models. These models were evaluated using concordance, a discriminatory statistic. A risk model incorporating longitudinal data on clinical documentation and laboratory test results (concordance 0.849) predicts progression from state III CKD to stage IV CKD more accurately when compared to a similar model without laboratory test results (concordance 0.733, P<.001), a model that only considers the most recent laboratory test results (concordance 0.819, P < .031) and a model based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (concordance 0.779, P < .001). A risk prediction model that takes longitudinal laboratory test results and clinical documentation into consideration can predict CKD progression from stage III to stage IV more accurately than three models that do not take all of these variables into consideration. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Utility of testing patients, on presentation, for serologic features of celiac disease.

PubMed

Srinivas, Melpakkam; Basumani, Pandurangan; Podmore, Geoff; Shrimpton, Anna; Bardhan, Karna Dev

2014-06-01

Celiac disease shares features of other disorders. It can be diagnosed conclusively only based on duodenal histology analysis, which is not practical for screening purposes. Serologic analysis might be used to identify candidates for biopsy analysis. We aimed to develop a simple diagnostic approach that all clinicians could follow to increase the percentage of patients accurately diagnosed with celiac disease at initial presentation. We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 752 patients (88 with celiac disease, none were IgA deficient) who attended a UK district general hospital from January 2007 through December 2008 and underwent biopsy analysis and serologic tests to measure endomyseal antibodies and IgA antibodies against tissue transglutaminase (tTG). Patients avoiding gluten in their diet were excluded. Patients were assigned to 1 of 4 groups: high-risk (based on presence of anemia, chronic diarrhea, unintentional weight loss, or dermatitis herpetiformis), low-risk (based on such factors as dyspepsia, abnormal liver function, ataxia, or chronic cough), nutrient deficiency (based on levels of iron, vitamins B12 and D, or folate), or screening (because they had type 1 diabetes or a family history of celiac disease). Patients with celiac disease were identified using the modified Marsh criteria (grades 1-3) for interpreting duodenal histology. We compared clinical category, serology profiles, and biopsy results between patients with and without celiac disease. Celiac disease was diagnosed in 64 of 565 patients in the high-risk group (11%), 14 of 156 patients in the low-risk group (9%; P = .47 compared with high-risk group), 7 of 28 patients in the nutrient-deficiency group, and 3 of 3 patients in the screening group. Among 71 patients who tested positive for both antibodies (tTG and endomyseal antibodies), the positive predictive value for celiac disease was 97%; a negative test result for tTG had a negative predictive value of 98%. Among 708 patients with normal-looking biopsy samples, only 62 had celiac disease (9%). Among 44 patients with abnormal biopsy samples, 26 had celiac disease (59%). Based on a retrospective analysis, patients with and without celiac disease cannot be distinguished based on clinical features. Patients who present with symptoms of celiac disease should be tested for tTG, to identify candidates for duodenal biopsy analysis. Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of developing prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Ferro, Matteo; Foerster, Beat; Abufaraj, Mohammad; Briganti, Alberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2018-01-01

Objective To investigate the impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). We focused on the differential effect of moderate consumption of red versus white wine. Design This study was a meta-analysis that includes data from case–control and cohort studies. Materials and methods A systematic search of Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed on December 1, 2017. Studies were deemed eligible if they assessed the risk of PCa due to red, white, or any wine using multivariable logistic regression analysis. We performed a formal meta-analysis for the risk of PCa according to moderate wine and wine type consumption (white or red). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochrane’s Q test and I2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger’s regression test. Results A total of 930 abstracts and titles were initially identified. After removal of duplicates, reviews, and conference abstracts, 83 full-text original articles were screened. Seventeen studies (611,169 subjects) were included for final evaluation and fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the case of moderate wine consumption: the pooled risk ratio (RR) for the risk of PCa was 0.98 (95% CI 0.92–1.05, p=0.57) in the multivariable analysis. Moderate white wine consumption increased the risk of PCa with a pooled RR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.10–1.43, p=0.001) in the multi-variable analysis. Meanwhile, moderate red wine consumption had a protective role reducing the risk by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78–0.999, p=0.047) in the multivariable analysis that comprised 222,447 subjects. Conclusions In this meta-analysis, moderate wine consumption did not impact the risk of PCa. Interestingly, regarding the type of wine, moderate consumption of white wine increased the risk of PCa, whereas moderate consumption of red wine had a protective effect. Further analyses are needed to assess the differential molecular effect of white and red wine conferring their impact on PCa risk. PMID:29713200

[Genetic tests in oncology: from identification of high risk groups to therapy].

PubMed

Sgambato, Alessandro; Ripani, Maurizio; Romano Spica, Vincenzo

2010-01-01

The development of genetic epidemiology in oncology has made possible more frequent analysis of high risk groups, allowing the development of promising susceptibility indicators. The main public health implications include screening and new perspectives for pharmacogenetics and nutrigenomics. The study of genetic variants allows the evaluation of individual risk of developing a disease and has important implications in primary and secondary prevention programs. The analysis of somatic mutations present in tumour cells may contribute to selecting the optimal treatment on an individual basis and to reducing the occurrence of adverse effects of chemotherapy. The authors give a summary of the state of the art of this field and analyze the potential applications of genetic tests in oncology, from identification of high risk groups to defining individualized therapies with particular emphasis on implications for prevention.

Construction and evaluation of FiND, a fall risk prediction model of inpatients from nursing data.

PubMed

Yokota, Shinichiroh; Ohe, Kazuhiko

2016-04-01

To construct and evaluate an easy-to-use fall risk prediction model based on the daily condition of inpatients from secondary use electronic medical record system data. The present authors scrutinized electronic medical record system data and created a dataset for analysis by including inpatient fall report data and Intensity of Nursing Care Needs data. The authors divided the analysis dataset into training data and testing data, then constructed the fall risk prediction model FiND from the training data, and tested the model using the testing data. The dataset for analysis contained 1,230,604 records from 46,241 patients. The sensitivity of the model constructed from the training data was 71.3% and the specificity was 66.0%. The verification result from the testing dataset was almost equivalent to the theoretical value. Although the model's accuracy did not surpass that of models developed in previous research, the authors believe FiND will be useful in medical institutions all over Japan because it is composed of few variables (only age, sex, and the Intensity of Nursing Care Needs items), and the accuracy for unknown data was clear. © 2016 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

Online self-test identifies women at high familial breast cancer risk in population-based breast cancer screening without inducing anxiety or distress.

PubMed

van Erkelens, A; Sie, A S; Manders, P; Visser, A; Duijm, L E; Mann, R M; Ten Voorde, M; Kroeze, H; Prins, J B; Hoogerbrugge, N

2017-06-01

Identifying high familial breast cancer (FBC) risk improves detection of yet unknown BRCA1/2-mutation carriers, for whom BC risk is both highly likely and potentially preventable. We assessed whether a new online self-test could identify women at high FBC risk in population-based BC screening without inducing anxiety or distress. After their visit for screening mammography, women were invited by email to take an online self-test for identifying highly increased FBC risk-based on Dutch guidelines. Exclusion criteria were previously diagnosed as increased FBC risk or a personal history of BC. Anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory Dutch Version), distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale) and BC risk perception were assessed using questionnaires, which were completed immediately before and after taking the online self-test and 2 weeks later. Of the 562 women invited by email, 406 (72%) completed the online self-test while 304 also completed questionnaires (response rate 54%). After exclusion criteria, 287 (51%) were included for data analysis. Median age was 56 years (range 50-74). A high or moderate FBC risk was identified in 12 (4%) and three (1%) women, respectively. After completion of the online self-test, anxiety and BC risk perception were decreased while distress scores remained unchanged. Levels were below clinical relevance. Most women (85%) would recommend the self-test; few (3%) would not. The online self-test identified previously unknown women at high FBC risk (4%), who may carry a BRCA1/2-mutation, without inducing anxiety or distress. We therefore recommend offering this self-test to women who attend population-based screening mammography for the first time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Reliability and validity of the Braden Scale for predicting pressure sore risk].

PubMed

Boes, C

2000-12-01

For more accurate and objective pressure sore risk assessment various risk assessment tools were developed mainly in the USA and Great Britain. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk is one such example. By means of a literature analysis of German and English texts referring to the Braden Scale the scientific control criteria reliability and validity will be traced and consequences for application of the scale in Germany will be demonstrated. Analysis of 4 reliability studies shows an exclusive focus on interrater reliability. Further, even though examination of 19 validity studies occurs in many different settings, such examination is limited to the criteria sensitivity and specificity (accuracy). The range of sensitivity and specificity level is 35-100%. The recommended cut off points rank in the field of 10 to 19 points. The studies prove to be not comparable with each other. Furthermore, distortions in these studies can be found which affect accuracy of the scale. The results of the here presented analysis show an insufficient proof for reliability and validity in the American studies. In Germany, the Braden scale has not yet been tested under scientific criteria. Such testing is needed before using the scale in different German settings. During the course of such testing, construction and study procedures of the American studies can be used as a basis as can the problems be identified in the analysis presented below.

Construction and validation of a questionnaire on the knowledge of healthy habits and risk factors for cardiovascular disease in schoolchildren.

PubMed

Cecchetto, Fátima H; Pellanda, Lucia C

2014-01-01

To develop and analyze the reliability and validity of a questionnaire on the knowledge of healthy habits and risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CARDIOKID) to be used in schoolchildren. The study included 145 children aged 7 to 11 years. The measured factors were the knowledge of healthy habits and risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Cronbach's alpha and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) were used to verify reliability, and exploratory factor analysis was used to assess the validity of the questionnaire. The sample consisted of 60% females and 40% males. In factorial analysis, the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test result was measures of sampling adequacy (MSA)=0.81 and Bartlett's test of sphericity was X(2)=(66)=458.64 (p<0.001). In the factorial analysis with varimax rotation, two dimensions were defined. The "healthy habits" dimension was composed of five factors (ICC=0.87 and α=0.93) and the "cardiovascular risk factors" dimension was composed of seven factors (ICC=0.83 and α=0.91). In the individual factor analysis, Cronbach's alphas were between 0.93 and 0.91. Total variance was 46.87%. There were no significant differences between test and retest applications. The questionnaire presented satisfactory validity and reliability (internal consistency and reproducibility), allowing for its use in children. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Improving STD testing behavior among high-risk young adults by offering STD testing at a vocational school.

PubMed

Spauwen, Laura W L; Hoebe, Christian J P A; Brouwers, Elfi E H G; Dukers-Muijrers, Nicole H T M

2011-09-30

Chlamydia trachomatis infection (CT) is the most prevalent bacterial STD. Sexually active adolescents and young adults are the main risk group for CT. However, STD testing rates in this group are low since exposed individuals may not feel at risk, owing-at least in part-to the infection's largely asymptomatic nature. Designing new testing environments that are more appealing to young people who are most at risk of acquiring chlamydia can be an important strategy to improve overall testing rates. Here we evaluate the effect of a school-based sexual health program conducted among vocational school students, aiming to obtain better access for counseling and enhance students' STD testing behavior. Adolescents (median age 19 years) attending a large vocational school were provided with sexual health education. Students filled in a questionnaire measuring CT risk and were offered STD testing. Using univariate and multivariate analysis, we assessed differences between men and women in STD-related risk behavior, sexual problems, CT testing behavior and determinants of CT testing behavior. Of 345 participants, 70% were female. Of the 287 sexually active students, 75% were at high risk for CT; one third of women reported sexual problems. Of sexually active participants, 61% provided a self-administered specimen for STD testing. Independent determinants for testing included STD related symptoms and no condom use. All CT diagnoses were in the high-CT-risk group. In the high-risk group, STD testing showed an increased uptake, from 27% (previous self-reported test) to 65% (current test). CT prevalence was 5.7%. Vocational school students are a target population for versatile sexual health prevention. When provided with CT testing facilities and education, self selection mechanisms seemed to increase CT testing rate dramatically in this high-CT-risk population expressing sexual problems. Considering the relative ease of testing and treating large numbers of young adults, offering tests at a vocational school is feasible in reaching adolescents for STD screening. Although cost-effectiveness remains an issue counseling is effective in increasing test rates.

Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

73 6.10. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 1 Mitigation of...6.11. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 3 Mitigation of the Upgrade Alternative...courses of action, or risk- mitigation behaviors, which take place in the event that the technology is not developed by the mile- stone date (e.g

Classification of debtor credit status and determination amount of credit risk by using linier discriminant function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aidi, Muhammad Nur; Sari, Resty Indah

2012-05-01

A decision of credit that given by bank or another creditur must have a risk and it called credit risk. Credit risk is an investor's risk of loss arising from a borrower who does not make payments as promised. The substantial of credit risk can lead to losses for the banks and the debtor. To minimize this problem need a further study to identify a potential new customer before the decision given. Identification of debtor can using various approaches analysis, one of them is by using discriminant analysis. Discriminant analysis in this study are used to classify whether belonging to the debtor's good credit or bad credit. The result of this study are two discriminant functions that can identify new debtor. Before step built the discriminant function, selection of explanatory variables should be done. Purpose of selection independent variable is to choose the variable that can discriminate the group maximally. Selection variables in this study using different test, for categoric variable selection of variable using proportion chi-square test, and stepwise discriminant for numeric variable. The result of this study are two discriminant functions that can identify new debtor. The selected variables that can discriminating two groups of debtor maximally are status of existing checking account, credit history, credit amount, installment rate in percentage of disposable income, sex, age in year, other installment plans, and number of people being liable to provide maintenance. This classification produce a classification accuracy rate is good enough, that is equal to 74,70%. Debtor classification using discriminant analysis has risk level that is small enough, and it ranged beetwen 14,992% and 17,608%. Based on that credit risk rate, using discriminant analysis on the classification of credit status can be used effectively.

Association between interleukin 10 gene -1082 A/G polymorphism and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis of 4250 subjects.

PubMed

Yin, Yan-Wei; Hu, Ai-Min; Sun, Qian-Qian; Zhang, Bei-Bei; Liu, Hong-Li; Wang, Qi; Zeng, Yi-Hua; Xu, Rui-Jia; Zhang, Shi-Jie; Shi, Long-Bao

2013-05-01

Increasing evidence suggests that interleukin 10 (IL 10) gene -1082 A/G (rsl800896) polymorphism may be associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the results are inconsistent. The aim of this study is to analyze the association between this variant and the T2DM risk by meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched from January 1, 1989 to February 17, 2012, as well as hand searching of the references of identified articles were performed. All the statistical tests were performed using Stata 11.0. Seven case-control studies were identified, covering a total of 1879 T2DM cases and 2371 controls. The results showed evidence of significant association between IL 10 gene -1082 A/G polymorphism and T2DM risk (for G/G+G/A vs. A/A: OR=1.21, 95% CI=1.05-1.40, p=0.010, p=0.040 after Bonferroni testing). In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, no significant association was found between IL 10 gene -1082 A/G polymorphism and T2DM risk in Europeans. In summary, results from this meta-analysis provide evidence that IL 10 gene -1082 G allele is associated with increased risk of T2DM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative nuclear histomorphometry predicts oncotype DX risk categories for early stage ER+ breast cancer.

PubMed

Whitney, Jon; Corredor, German; Janowczyk, Andrew; Ganesan, Shridar; Doyle, Scott; Tomaszewski, John; Feldman, Michael; Gilmore, Hannah; Madabhushi, Anant

2018-05-30

Gene-expression companion diagnostic tests, such as the Oncotype DX test, assess the risk of early stage Estrogen receptor (ER) positive (+) breast cancers, and guide clinicians in the decision of whether or not to use chemotherapy. However, these tests are typically expensive, time consuming, and tissue-destructive. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of computer-extracted nuclear morphology features from routine hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained images of 178 early stage ER+ breast cancer patients to predict corresponding risk categories derived using the Oncotype DX test. A total of 216 features corresponding to the nuclear shape and architecture categories from each of the pathologic images were extracted and four feature selection schemes: Ranksum, Principal Component Analysis with Variable Importance on Projection (PCA-VIP), Maximum-Relevance, Minimum Redundancy Mutual Information Difference (MRMR MID), and Maximum-Relevance, Minimum Redundancy - Mutual Information Quotient (MRMR MIQ), were employed to identify the most discriminating features. These features were employed to train 4 machine learning classifiers: Random Forest, Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Linear Discriminant Analysis, via 3-fold cross validation. The four sets of risk categories, and the top Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) machine classifier performances were: 1) Low ODx and Low mBR grade vs. High ODx and High mBR grade (Low-Low vs. High-High) (AUC = 0.83), 2) Low ODx vs. High ODx (AUC = 0.72), 3) Low ODx vs. Intermediate and High ODx (AUC = 0.58), and 4) Low and Intermediate ODx vs. High ODx (AUC = 0.65). Trained models were tested independent validation set of 53 cases which comprised of Low and High ODx risk, and demonstrated per-patient accuracies ranging from 75 to 86%. Our results suggest that computerized image analysis of digitized H&E pathology images of early stage ER+ breast cancer might be able predict the corresponding Oncotype DX risk categories.

Risk assessment and risk management at the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA): a perspective on the monitoring of foods for chemical residues.

PubMed

Bietlot, Henri P; Kolakowski, Beata

2012-08-01

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) uses 'Ranked Risk Assessment' (RRA) to prioritize chemical hazards for inclusion in monitoring programmes or method development projects based on their relative risk. The relative risk is calculated for a chemical by scoring toxicity and exposure in the 'risk model scoring system' of the Risk Priority Compound List (RPCL). The relative ranking and the risk management options are maintained and updated in the RPCL. The ranking may be refined by the data generated by the sampling and testing programs. The two principal sampling and testing programmes are the National Chemical Residue Monitoring Program (NCRMP) and the Food Safety Action Plan (FSAP). The NCRMP sampling plans focus on the analysis of federally registered products (dairy, eggs, honey, meat and poultry, fresh and processed fruit and vegetable commodities, and maple syrup) for residues of veterinary drugs, pesticides, environmental contaminants, mycotoxins, and metals. The NCRMP is complemented by the Food Safety Action Plan (FSAP) targeted surveys. These surveys focus on emerging chemical hazards associated with specific foods or geographical regions for which applicable maximum residue limits (MRLs) are not set. The data from the NCRMP and FSAP also influence the risk management (follow-up) options. Follow-up actions vary according to the magnitude of the health risk, all with the objective of preventing any repeat occurrence to minimize consumer exposure to a product representing a potential risk to human health. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2012. Drug Testing and Analysis © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category among MSM in Vancouver.

PubMed

Bogowicz, Paul; Moore, David; Kanters, Steve; Michelow, Warren; Robert, Wayne; Hogg, Robert; Gustafson, Réka; Gilbert, Mark

2016-03-01

We carried out an analysis of a serobehavioural study of men who have sex with men >19 years of age in Vancouver, Canada to examine HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category, as defined by routinely gathered clinical data. We restricted our analysis to those who self-identified as HIV-negative, completed a questionnaire, and provided a dried blood spot sample. Of 842 participants, 365 (43.3%) were categorised as lower-risk, 245 (29.1%) as medium-risk and 232 (27.6%) as higher-risk. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was low (lower 0.8%, medium 3.3%, higher 3.9%; p = 0.032). Participants differed by risk category in terms of having had an HIV test in the previous year (lower 46.5%, medium 54.6%, higher 67.0%; p < 0.001) and in their use of serosorting (lower 23.3%, medium 48.3%, higher 43.1%; p < 0.001) and only having sex with HIV-positive men if those men had low viral loads or were taking HIV medication (lower 5.1%, medium 4.8%, higher 10.9%; p = 0.021) as risk reduction strategies. These findings speak to the need to consider segmented health promotion services for men who have sex with men with differing risk profiles. Risk stratification could be used to determine who might benefit from tailored multiple health promotion interventions, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis. © The Author(s) 2016.

HIV testing and counseling: test providers' experiences of best practices.

PubMed

Myers, Ted; Worthington, Catherine; Haubrich, Dennis J; Ryder, Karen; Calzavara, Liviana

2003-08-01

Although education is central to HIV testing and counseling, little is known about the educational processes within the testing experience. This study investigated test providers' understandings of testing and counseling best practices. Interviews with a purposive sample of 24 test providers were thematically analyzed. Analysis revealed five best practices specific to HIV education and public health--ensuring information and education for HIV risk reduction, individualization of risk assessment, ensuring test results are given in person, providing information and referrals, and facilitating partner notification--and six practices not specific to HIV counseling relationship building. The latter were building trust and rapport; maintaining professional boundaries; ensuring a comfortable, safe environment; ensuring confidentiality; imparting nonjudgmntal attitude; and self-determination. The identified best practices demonstrated remarkable consistency across respondent subgroups. Although counseling was seen as largely educational and with a preventive focus, it included individualized messages based on assessments of risk, knowledge, and social and cultural characteristics.

Cell-free DNA testing after combined test: factors affecting the uptake.

PubMed

Maiz, Nerea; Alzola, Irune; Murua, Emerson J; Rodríguez Santos, Javier

2016-11-01

First, to assess what was the uptake of cell free DNA (cfDNA) testing after a combined test and the maternal and fetal factors that influenced this decision, and second, to assess the uptake and factors that influence the choice of invasive testing. This observational retrospective study included 1083 singleton pregnancies who had a combined test for screening for Down syndrome between 11 (+) (0) and 13 (+) (6) weeks. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors affected the uptake of cfDNA test and invasive testing among risk for trisomies 21, 18, and 13, maternal characteristics and fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness. Two-hundred fifty-seven (23.7%) women had a cfDNA test, 89 (8.2%) had an invasive test, and 737 (68.1%) had no further test. The uptake of cfDNA increased with the risk for trisomies (p < 0.001), maternal age (p = 0.013), and was higher in nulliparous women (p = 0.004). The uptake of invasive test increased with the risk for trisomies (p < 0.001) and NT thickness (p < 0.001). This study shows that the uptake of cfDNA testing increases with the risk for trisomies, maternal age, and is higher in nulliparous, whereas the uptake of invasive testing increases with the risk for trisomies and NT thickness.

Unconsented HIV Testing in Cases of Occupational Exposure: Ethics, Law, and Policy

PubMed Central

Cowan, Ethan; Macklin, Ruth

2012-01-01

Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) has substantially reduced the risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) after an occupational exposure; nevertheless, exposure to HIV remains a concern for emergency department providers. According to published guidelines, PEP should be taken only when source patients are HIV positive or have risk factors for HIV. Initiating PEP when source patients are uninfected puts exposed persons at risk from taking toxic drugs with no compensating benefit. Forgoing PEP if the source is infected results in increased risk of acquiring HIV. What should be done if source patients refuse HIV testing? Is it justifiable to test the blood of these patients over their autonomous objection? The authors review current law and policy and perform an ethical analysis to determine if laws permitting unconsented testing in cases of occupational exposure can be ethically justified. PMID:22994417

NT-proBNP Predicts All-Cause Mortality in a Population of Insurance Applicants, Follow-up Analysis and Further Observations.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Kaufman, Valerie; Clark, Michael; Stout, Robert L

2017-01-01

- Further refine the independent value of NT-proBNP, accounting for the impact of other test results, in predicting all-cause mortality for individual life insurance applicants with and without heart disease. - Using the Social Security Death Master File and multivariate analysis, relative mortality was determined for 245,322 life insurance applicants ages 50 to 89 tested for NT-proBNP (almost all based on age and policy amount) along with other laboratory tests and measurement of blood pressure and BMI. - NT-proBNP values ≤75 pg/mL included the majority of applicants denying heart disease and had the lowest risk, while values >500 pg/mL for females and >300 pg/mL for males had very high relative risk. Those admitting to heart disease had a higher mortality risk for each band of NT-proBNP relative to those denying heart disease but had a similar and equally predictive risk curve. - NT-proBNP is a strong independent predictor of all-cause mortality in the absence or presence of known heart disease but the range of values associated with increased risk varies by sex.

Framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food industry.

PubMed

Baker, Robert C; Ford, Randall M; Helander, Mary E; Marecki, Janusz; Natarajan, Ramesh; Ray, Bonnie

2014-12-01

We propose a methodological framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food processing industry. Mycotoxin contamination is a well-known threat to public health that has economic significance for the food processing industry; it is imperative to address mycotoxin risks holistically, at all points in the procurement, processing, and distribution pipeline, by tracking the relevant data, adopting best practices, and providing suitable adaptive controls. The proposed framework includes (i) an information and data repository, (ii) a collaborative infrastructure with analysis and simulation tools, (iii) standardized testing and acceptance sampling procedures, and (iv) processes that link the risk assessments and testing results to the sourcing, production, and product release steps. The implementation of suitable acceptance sampling protocols for mycotoxin testing is considered in some detail.

Predictors of Home Radon Testing and Implications for Testing Promotion Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandman, Peter M.; Weinstein, Neil D.

1993-01-01

Analysis of 4 New Jersey studies of 3,329 homeowners found that (1) thinking about radon testing is predicted by general radon knowledge; (2) decision to test is related to perceived likelihood of risk; and (3) actual testing is influenced by situational factors such as locating and choosing test kits. (SK)

[The model of perioperative risk assessment in elderly patients - interim analysis].

PubMed

Grabowska, Izabela; Ścisło, Lucyna; Pietruszka, Szymon; Walewska, Elzbieta; Paszko, Agata; Siarkiewicz, Benita; Richter, Piotr; Budzyński, Andrzej; Szczepanik, Antoni M

2017-04-21

Demographic changes in contemporary society require implementation of proper perioperative care of elderly patients due to an increased risk of perioperative complications in this group. Preoperative assessment of health status identifies risks and enables preventive interventions, improving outcomes of surgical treatment. The Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment contains numerous diagnostic tests and consultations, which is expensive and difficult to use in everyday practice. The development of a simplified model of perioperative assessment of elderly patients will help identifying the group of patients who require further diagnostic workup. The aim of the study is to evaluate the usefulness of the tests used in a proposed model of perioperative risk assessment in elderly patients. In a group of 178 patients older than 64 years admitted for surgical procedures, a battery of tests was performed. The proposed model of perioperative risk assessment included: Charlson Comorbidity Index, ADL (activities of daily living), TUG test (timed "up and go" test), MNA (mini nutritional assessment), AMTS (abbreviated mental test score), spirometry measurement of respiratory muscle strength (Pimax, Pemax). Distribution of abnormal results of each test has been analysed. The Charlson Index over 6 points was recorded in 10.1% of patients (15.1% in cancer patients). Abnormal result of the TUG test was observed in 32.1%. The risk of malnutrition in MNA test has been identified in 29.7% (39.2% in cancer patients). Abnormal test results at the level of 10-30% indicate potential diagnostic value of Charlson Comorbidity Index, TUG test and MNA in the evaluation of perioperative risk in elderly patients.

An analysis of the meanings of pre-eclampsia for pregnant and postpartum women and health professionals in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

PubMed

de Azevedo, Daniela Vasconcelos; de Araújo, Ana C P F; Clara Costa, Iris C

2011-12-01

To understand the meanings of pre-eclampsia for pregnant and postpartum women and health-care professionals. a word-association test and semi-structured interviews. A maternity hospital located in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil that serves pregnant and postpartum women considered to be at high risk. 51 Pregnant women, 10 postpartum women and 87 health-care professionals completed a word-association test; 18 pregnant women, two postpartum women and 20 health-care professionals for the interviews. Thematic categories based on the word-association test and the interviews were created to help the data analysis. χ(2) test was used to compare the categories raised by both groups in the word-association test to determine the association between the frequencies of these categories. The meanings of pre-eclampsia to pregnant and postpartum women were fear, risk, care and lack of information. To the health-care professionals, the meanings were care, fear, risk, high blood pressure, oedema and proteinuria. The frequencies of the categories 'fear', 'care' and 'risk' were statistically different (χ(2) = 31.84, 14.5, 38.19, respectively; df = 2, p < 0.001) between the group of pregnant and postpartum women and the group of health-care professionals. For the first group, the most significant meanings were fear and risk, compared with care for the second group. The analysis of the interviews confirmed and deepened the results of the word-association test, and also demonstrated that the pregnant and postpartum women had no information about pre-eclampsia. There is a gap between how women and health professionals view their experiences of pre-eclampsia. A warm welcome to the health-care facility, with clear explanations about the disease and the procedures to be performed during the visits and hospitalisation would be important aspects for the physical and mental well-being of pregnant and postpartum women. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Risk factors in the results of the colour vision test Roth 28-hue (E) desaturated in glaucoma patients].

PubMed

Jass, C M; Böhringer, D; Erb, C; Jordan, J F

2013-11-01

Glaucoma is an ocular disease with typical progressive damage of the optic nerve. In the past it was postulated that glaucoma induces acquired colour vision disorders. Until now all studies about glaucoma and colour vision disorders did not include vascular risk factors. In the present study we determined several vascular risk factors concerning the results of the colour vision test Roth 28-hue (E) desaturated in glaucoma patients. On the basis of an analysis of variance (ANOVA) we determined the influence of several risk factors, such as arteriosclerotic and vasospastic risk factors, on the results of the colour vision test Roth 28-hue (E) desaturated in glaucoma patients. 353 glaucoma patients were included in this study. We detected a strong influence of age and mean defect in perimetry and an additional effect of arteriosclerotic and vasospastic risk factors on the results of the colour vision test Roth 28-hue (E) desaturated in glaucoma patients. We suspect that arteriosclerotic and vasospastic risk factors independently to glaucoma have an influence on colour vision. In the future attention additionally has to be given to vascular risk factors in the colour vision testing of glaucoma patients. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Frontal Lobe Function and Risk of Hip Fracture in Patient With Alzheimer Disease: An Analysis of Linked Data.

PubMed

Roh, Hyun Woong; Hong, Chang Hyung; Lee, SooJin; Lee, Yunhwan; Lee, Kang Soo; Chang, Ki Jung; Oh, Byoung Hoon; Choi, Seong Hye; Kim, Seong Yoon; Back, Joung Hwan; Chung, Young Ki; Lim, Ki Young; Noh, Jai Sung; Son, Sang Joon

2015-11-01

To determine the association between frontal lobe function and risk of hip fracture in patients with Alzheimer disease (AD).Retrospective cohort study using multicenter hospital-based dementia registry and national health insurance claim data was done. Participants who had available data of neuropsychological test, national health insurance claim, and other covariates were included. A total of 1660 patients with AD were included based on Stroop Test results. A total of 1563 patients with AD were included based on the Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT) results. Hip fracture was measured by validated identification criteria using national health insurance claim data. Frontal lobe function was measured by Stroop Test and COWAT at baseline.After adjusting for potential covariates, including cognitive function in other domains (language, verbal and nonverbal memory, and attention), the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed that risk of a hip fracture was decreased with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.98 per one point of increase in the Stroop Test (adjusted HR = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97-1.00) and 0.93 per one point increase in COWAT (adjusted HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88-0.99).The risk of hip fracture in AD patients was associated with baseline frontal lobe function. The result of this research presents evidence of association between frontal lobe function and risk of hip fracture in patients with AD.

Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Andrew M.; DeHaye, Michael; DeLessio, Steven

2011-01-01

The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

Hazard Analysis for Building 34 Vacuum Glove Box Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meginnis, Ian

2014-01-01

One of the characteristics of an effective safety program is the recognition and control of hazards before mishaps or failures occur. Conducting potentially hazardous tests necessitates a thorough hazard analysis in order to prevent injury to personnel, and to prevent damage to facilities and equipment. The primary purpose of this hazard analysis is to define and address the potential hazards and controls associated with the Building 34 Vacuum Glove Box Assembly, and to provide the applicable team of personnel with the documented results. It is imperative that each member of the team be familiar with the hazards and controls associated with his/her particular tasks, assignments and activities while interfacing with facility test systems, equipment and hardware. In fulfillment of the stated purposes, the goal of this hazard analysis is to identify all hazards that have the potential to harm personnel, damage the facility or its test systems or equipment, test articles, Government or personal property, or the environment. This analysis may also assess the significance and risk, when applicable, of lost test objectives when substantial monetary value is involved. The hazards, causes, controls, verifications, and risk assessment codes have been documented on the hazard analysis work sheets in Appendix A of this document. The preparation and development of this report is in accordance with JPR 1700.1, "JSC Safety and Health Handbook" and JSC 17773 Rev D "Instructions for Preparation of Hazard Analysis for JSC Ground Operations".

Hair drug testing results and self-reported drug use among primary care patients with moderate-risk illicit drug use.

PubMed

Gryczynski, Jan; Schwartz, Robert P; Mitchell, Shannon Gwin; O'Grady, Kevin E; Ondersma, Steven J

2014-08-01

This study sought to examine the utility of hair testing as a research measure of drug use among individuals with moderate-risk drug use based on the internationally validated Alcohol, Smoking, and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST). This study is a secondary analysis using baseline data from a randomized trial of brief intervention for drug misuse, in which 360 adults with moderate-risk drug use were recruited from two community clinics in New Mexico, USA. The current study compared self-reported drug use on the ASSIST with laboratory analysis of hair samples using a standard commercially available 5-panel test with assay screening and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) confirmation. Both self-report and hair testing covered a 3-month period. Overall concordance between hair testing and self-report was 57.5% (marijuana), 86.5% (cocaine), 85.8% (amphetamines), and 74.3% (opioids). Specificity of hair testing at standard laboratory cut-offs exceeded 90% for all drugs, but sensitivity of hair testing relative to self-report was low, identifying only 52.3% (127/243) of self-disclosed marijuana users, 65.2% (30/46) of cocaine users, 24.2% (8/33) of amphetamine users, and 2.9% (2/68) of opioid users. Among participants who disclosed using marijuana or cocaine in the past 3 months, participants with a negative hair test tended to report lower-frequency use of those drugs (p<.001 for marijuana and cocaine). Hair testing can be useful in studies with moderate-risk drug users, but the potential for under-identification of low-frequency use suggests that researchers should consider employing low detection cut-offs and using hair testing in conjunction with self-report. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hair Drug Testing Results and Self-reported Drug Use among Primary Care Patients with Moderate-risk Illicit Drug Use

PubMed Central

Gryczynski, Jan; Schwartz, Robert P.; Mitchell, Shannon Gwin; O’Grady, Kevin E.; Ondersma, Steven J.

2014-01-01

Background This study sought to examine the utility of hair testing as a research measure of drug use among individuals with moderate-risk drug use based on the internationally-validated Alcohol, Smoking, and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST). Methods This study is a secondary analysis using baseline data from a randomized trial of brief intervention for drug misuse, in which 360 adults with moderate-risk drug use were recruited from two community clinics in New Mexico, USA. The current study compared self-reported drug use on the ASSIST with laboratory analysis of hair samples using a standard commercially-available 5-panel test with assay screening and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) confirmation. Both self-report and hair testing covered a 3 month period. Results Overall concordance between hair testing and self-report was 57.5% (marijuana), 86.5% (cocaine), 85.8% (amphetamines), and 74.3% (opioids). Specificity of hair testing at standard laboratory cut-offs exceeded 90% for all drugs, but sensitivity of hair testing relative to self-report was low, identifying only 52.3% (127/243) of self-disclosed marijuana users, 65.2% (30/46) of cocaine users, 24.2% (8/33) of amphetamine users, and 2.9% (2/68) of opioid users. Among participants who disclosed using marijuana or cocaine in the past 3 months, participants with a negative hair test tended to report lower-frequency use of those drugs (p< .001 for marijuana and cocaine). Conclusions Hair testing can be useful in studies with moderate-risk drug users, but the potential for under-identification of low-frequency use suggests that researchers should consider employing low detection cut-offs and using hair testing in conjunction with self-report. PMID:24932945

Expanding HIV testing efforts in concentrated epidemic settings: a population-based survey from rural Vietnam.

PubMed

Pharris, Anastasia; Nguyen, Thi Kim Chuc; Tishelman, Carol; Brugha, Ruairí; Nguyen, Phuong Hoa; Thorson, Anna

2011-01-11

To improve HIV prevention and care programs, it is important to understand the uptake of HIV testing and to identify population segments in need of increased HIV testing. This is particularly crucial in countries with concentrated HIV epidemics, where HIV prevalence continues to rise in the general population. This study analyzes determinants of HIV testing in a rural Vietnamese population in order to identify potential access barriers and areas for promoting HIV testing services. A population-based cross-sectional survey of 1874 randomly sampled adults was linked to pregnancy, migration and economic cohort data from a demographic surveillance site (DSS). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors were associated with having tested for HIV. The age-adjusted prevalence of ever-testing for HIV was 7.6%; however 79% of those who reported feeling at-risk of contracting HIV had never tested. In multivariate analysis, younger age (aOR 1.85, 95% CI 1.14-3.01), higher economic status (aOR 3.4, 95% CI 2.21-5.22), and semi-urban residence (aOR 2.37, 95% CI 1.53-3.66) were associated with having been tested for HIV. HIV testing rates did not differ between women of reproductive age who had recently been pregnant and those who had not. We found low testing uptake (6%) among pregnant women despite an existing prevention of mother-to-child HIV testing policy, and lower-than-expected testing among persons who felt that they were at-risk of HIV. Poverty and residence in a more geographically remote location were associated with less HIV testing. In addition to current HIV testing strategies focusing on high-risk groups, we recommend targeting HIV testing in concentrated HIV epidemic settings to focus on a scaled-up provision of antenatal testing. Additional recommendations include removing financial and geographic access barriers to client-initiated testing, and encouraging provider-initiated testing of those who believe that they are at-risk of HIV.

Suicide Risk in the Hospitalized Elderly in Turkey and Affecting Factors.

PubMed

Avci, Dilek; Selcuk, Kevser Tari; Dogan, Selma

2017-02-01

This study aimed to investigate the suicide risk among the elderly hospitalized and treated because of physical illnesses, and the factors affecting the risk. The study has a cross-sectional design. It was conducted with 459 elderly people hospitalized and treated in a public hospital between May 25, 2015 and December 4, 2015. Data were collected with the Personal Information Form, Suicide Probability Scale and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. For the analysis, descriptive statistics, the chi-square test, Fisher's exact test and logistic regression analysis were used. In the study, 24.0% of the elderly were at high risk for suicide. Suicide risk was even higher among the elderly in the 60-74 age group, living alone, drinking alcohol, perceiving his/her religious beliefs as weak, being treated for cancer, having the diagnosis 11 years or over, having a history of admission to a psychiatry clinic, and being at risk for anxiety and depression. In the study, approximately one out of every four elderly people was at high risk for suicide. Therefore, older people should be assessed for suicide risk and programs targeting to prevent the elderly from committing suicide should be organized. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from post-mortem human subject tests under axial impacts

PubMed Central

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W.J.; Pintar, Frank A.; Szabo, Aniko

2015-01-01

Objective Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. Methods The study re-examined lower leg PMHS data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and non-injury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the co-variable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. Results The mean age, stature and weight: 58.2 ± 15.1 years, 1.74 ± 0.08 m and 74.9 ± 13.8 kg. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other two distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-old at five, 25 and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45 and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk; and 10.4, 8.3, and 6.6 kN at 50% risk, respectively. Conclusions This study derived axial loading-induced injury risk curves based on survival analysis using peak force and specimen age; adopting different censoring schemes; considering overly influential samples in the analysis; and assessing the quality of the distribution at discrete probability levels. Because procedures used in the present survival analysis are accepted by international automotive communities, current optimum human injury probability distributions can be used at all risk levels with more confidence in future crashworthiness applications for automotive and other disciplines. PMID:25307381

[Incidence and surgical wound infection risk factors in breast cancer surgery].

PubMed

Lefebvre, D; Penel, N; Deberles, M F; Fournier, C

2000-11-18

In order to evaluate occurrence and risk factors for wound infection (WI) in breast cancer surgery, we carried out a prospective study. From September 1996 through April 1997, an infection control physician prospectively evaluated 542 wounds of all patients having breast cancer surgery at the Oscar Lambret Cancer Center. WI was defined as a wound with pus. Antibiotic prophylaxis was given in case of immediate breast reconstruction. Statistical evaluation was performed using the c < or = test for categorial data and non-parametric Mann-Whitney test for continuous data. In univariate analysis, differences were considered significant at p < 0.01. The overall WI rate was 3.51% (19/352). In univariate analysis, risk factors for WI were: total preoperative hospital stay (p = 0.01), previous chemotherapy (p = 0.01), previous oncologic surgery (p = 0.03) and immediate breast reconstruction (p = 0.002). In mutivariate analysis, we observed two independent predictive factors for WI: previous chemotherapy (p = 0.05) and immediate breast reconstruction (p = 0.02). Previous anticancer chemotherapy was a major risk factor. In these cases, a phase III trial could confirm efficacy of standard antibiotic prophylaxis. Breast reconstruction was the second major risk factor. Standard antibiotic prophylaxis (used in our study) was insufficient.

Residual disease at the bronchial stump is positively associated with the risk of bronchoplerual fistula in patients undergoing lung cancer surgery: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Shuangjiang; Fan, Jun; Zhou, Jian; Ren, Yutao; Shen, Cheng; Che, Guowei

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES Residual disease at the bronchial stump (RDBS) is regarded as an important factor possibly resulting in bronchopleural fistula (BPF) after lung cancer surgery, but this has not been confirmed. We conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of RDBS on BPF formation in patients undergoing lung cancer surgery. METHODS PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched for full-text articles that met our eligibility criteria. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) served as the summarized outcomes. Q-test and I2 statistic were used to evaluate the level of heterogeneity, determining the fixed-effect model or random-effect model for quantitative synthesis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the possible origins of heterogeneity. The publication bias was assessed by Begg's test. RESULTS A total of eight retrospective observational studies were included in our meta-analysis. In overall analysis, the pooled outcomes indicated that RDBS was significantly associated with BPF formation after lung cancer surgery (OR: 3.12; 95% CI: 1.72–5.64; P < 0.001). In subgroup analysis, the pooled outcomes revealed a significantly increased risk of post-pneumonectomy BPF in patients with RDBS (OR: 2.78; 95% CI: 1.06–7.28; P = 0.037). The subgroup analysis assessing the effects of RDBS on post-lobectomy BPF was given up due to the scarcity of available data. No heterogeneity was revealed within this meta-analysis. No evidence for publication bias was detected by Begg's test. CONCLUSIONS Our meta-analysis indicates that RDBS is positively associated with the increased risk of BPF in patients undergoing lung cancer surgery. The further analysis also reveals an increased risk of post-pneumonectomy BPF in patients with RDBS. More accurate and comprehensive evidence should be collected and summarized in updated meta-analyses. PMID:26614527

Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

PubMed

Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

2016-12-01

Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

Risk factors of ifosfamide-related encephalopathy in adult patients with cancer: A retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Yin; Shen, Li-Jiuan; Chen, Wen-Hwei; Dong, Yaa-Hui; Wu, Fe-Lin Lin

2016-09-01

Ifosfamide, a widely used chemotherapeutic agent, has been frequently associated with encephalopathy. A larger-scale study was conducted to identify risk factors of ifosfamide-related encephalopathy, including hepatic function. Adult patients who had completed at least one cycle of ifosfamide between January 2008 and December 2010 were included. Those with renal failure or liver failure were excluded. Data were collected through chart review. Patients with encephalopathy and patients without encephalopathy were compared on age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS), baseline serum creatinine (SCr) level, albumin level, white blood cell count, liver function, brain metastasis, and dosage of ifosfamide. Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, Student t test, and univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used for analysis. This study enrolled 337 patients. Thirty-eight patients (11%) had ifosfamide-related encephalopathy. They had poorer ECOG PS; higher SCr level, white blood cell count, and aspartate aminotransferase level; and lower serum albumin level compared with patients without encephalopathy. Ifosfamide dosage, brain metastasis, and age were not significant risk factors. Multivariate analysis indicated that only ECOG PS, SCr level, and albumin level contributed significantly to the risk. To date, this is the largest-scale study to have analyzed the risk factors of ifosfamide-related encephalopathy. This study confirms that an ECOG PS of 2-4 and increased SCr level are significant risk factors of ifosfamide-related encephalopathy, whereas increased albumin level decreases the risk, consistent with previous reports. Higher aspartate aminotransferase levels have no significant impact. In contrast to previous studies, ifosfamide dosage and brain metastasis are not significant contributing factors. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Adult Prostitution Recidivism: Risk Factors and Impact of a Diversion Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roe-Sepowitz, Dominique E.; Hickle, Kristine E.; Loubert, Martha Perez; Egan, Tom

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors and the impact of a prostitution diversion program on prostitution recidivism. Risk factors and recidivism were explored using chi-square, t tests, and survival analysis. Participants were 448 individuals who were arrested for prostitution and attended a prostitution-focused diversion…

Development of new injury risk curves for the knee/distal femur and the hip for use in frontal impact testing.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

This report describes how new injury risk curves for the knee/distal femur and the hip were : developed through reanalyses of existing peak knee impact force data. New hip injury risk : curves were developed using survival analysis with a lognormal d...

The Successful Test Taker: Exploring Test-Taking Behavior Profiles through Cluster Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stenlund, Tova; Lyrén, Per-Erik; Eklöf, Hanna

2018-01-01

To be successful in a high-stakes testing situation is desirable for any test taker. It has been found that, beside content knowledge, test-taking behavior, such as risk-taking strategies, motivation, and test anxiety, is important for test performance. The purposes of the present study were to identify and group test takers with similar patterns…

An exploratory study of HIV risk behaviours and testing among male sex workers in Beirut, Lebanon

PubMed Central

Aunon, Frances M.; Wagner, Glenn J.; Maher, Rabih; Khouri, Danielle; Kaplan, Rachel L.; Mokhbat, Jacques

2015-01-01

Male sex workers (MSW) are a particularly high-risk subset of men who have sex with men in Lebanon and report higher numbers of sex partners and lower rates of condom use. The purpose was to explore the factors influencing sexual risk behaviors and HIV testing among MSW. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 16 MSW living in Beirut and working in bathhouses (hammam) or as escorts; content analysis identified emergent themes. Escorts reported more consistent condom use with clients and HIV testing than hammam MSW, with influential factors including HIV risk knowledge and perceived risk susceptibility, job security, and internalized stigma and related feelings of self-worth and fatalism regarding health and HIV risk. In contrast, both groups of MSW typically opted not to condoms with nonclient sex partners, in an effort to differentiate sex for work versus pleasure. The uptake of HIV testing was limited by concerns about the confidentiality of the test results and fear of repercussions of a positive test result for their health and employment. The respondents described an insular existence within the sex work culture, in part to limit exposure to stigma, which has implications for access to support as well as the influence of peer norms regarding sexual risk behavior and health seeking behaviors such as HIV testing. Further research is needed to tailor prevention and HIV testing efforts to reflect the distinct sexual health “cultures” that distinguish these two populations of MSW in Lebanon. PMID:25950906

Adherence to an Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol for Chest Pain: Secondary Analysis of the HEART Pathway Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Mahler, Simon A.; Riley, Robert F.; Russell, Gregory B.; Hiestand, Brian C.; Hoekstra, James W.; Lefebvre, Cedric W.; Nicks, Bret A.; Cline, David M.; Askew, Kim L.; Bringolf, John; Elliott, Stephanie B.; Herrington, David M.; Burke, Gregory L.; Miller, Chadwick D.

2015-01-01

Objectives Accelerated diagnostic protocols (ADP), such as the HEART Pathway, are gaining popularity in emergency departments (EDs) as tools used to risk-stratify patients with acute chest pain. However, provider non-adherence may threaten the safety and effectiveness of ADPs. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency and impact of ADP non-adherence. Methods A secondary analysis of participants enrolled in the HEART Pathway RCT was conducted. This trial enrolled 282 adult ED patients with symptoms concerning for acute coronary syndrome without ST-elevation on electrocardiogram. Patients randomized to the HEART Pathway (N = 141) were included in this analysis. Outcomes included index visit disposition, non-adherence, and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at 30 days. MACE was defined as death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization. Non-adherence was defined as: 1) under-testing: discharging a high-risk patient from the ED without objective testing (stress testing or coronary angiography); or 2) over-testing: admitting or obtaining objective testing on a low-risk patient. Results Non-adherence to the HEART Pathway occurred in 28 out of 141 patients (20%, 95% CI = 14% to 27%). Over-testing occurred in 19 of 141 patients (13.5%, 95% CI = 8% to 19%) and under-testing in 9 of 141 patients (6%, 95% CI = 3% to 12%). None of these 28 patients suffered MACE. The net effect of non-adherence was ten additional admissions among patients identified as low-risk and appropriate for early discharge (absolute decrease in discharge rate of 7%, 95% CI = 3% to 13%). Conclusions Real-time use of the HEART Pathway resulted in a non-adherence rate of 20%, mostly due to over-testing. None of these patients had MACE within 30 days. Non-adherence decreased the discharge rate, attenuating the HEART Pathway’s impact on health care use. PMID:26720295

What Is the Influence of Both Risk Donor and Risk Receiver on Simultaneous Pancreas-Kidney Transplantation?

PubMed

Sánchez-Hidalgo, J M; Salamanca-Bustos, J J; Arjona-Sánchez, Á; Campos-Hernández, J P; Ruiz Rabelo, J; Rodríguez-Benot, A; Requena-Tapia, M J; Briceño-Delgado, J

2018-03-01

Some factors affect the pancreas of a marginal donor, and although their influence on graft survival has been determined, there is an increasing consensus to accept marginal organs in a controlled manner to increase the pool of organs. Certain factors related to the recipient have also been proposed as having negative influence on graft prognosis. The objective of this study was to analyze the influence of these factors on the results of our simultaneous pancreas-kidney (SPK) transplantation series. Retrospective analysis of 126 SPK transplants. Donors and recipients were stratified in an optimal group (<2 expanded donor criteria) and a risk group (≥2 criteria). A pancreatic graft survival analysis was performed using a Kaplan-Meier test and log-rank test. Prognostic variables on graft survival were studied by Cox regression. Postoperative complications (graded by Clavien classification) were compared by χ 2 test or Fisher test. Median survival of pancreas was 66 months, with no significant difference between groups (P > .05). Multivariate analysis showed risk factors to be donor age, cold ischemia time, donor body mass index, receipt body mass index, and receipt panel-reactive antibody. In our series, the use of pancreatic grafts from donors with expanded criteria is safe and has increased the pool of grafts. Different variables, both donor and recipient, influence the survival of the pancreatic graft and should be taken into account in organ distribution systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pre-transplantation glucose testing for predicting new-onset diabetes mellitus after renal transplantation.

PubMed

Ramesh Prasad, G V; Huang, M; Bandukwala, F; Nash, M M; Rapi, L; Montada-Atin, T; Meliton, G; Zaltzman, J S

2009-02-01

New-onset diabetes after renal transplantation (NODAT) adversely affects graft and patient survival. However, NODAT risk based on pre-transplant blood glucose (BG) levels has not been defined. Our goal was to identify the best pre-transplant testing method and cut-off values. We performed a case-control analysis of non-diabetic recipients who received a live donor allograft with at least 6 months post-transplant survival. Pre-transplant glucose abnormalities were excluded through 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) and random BG (RBG) measurement. NODAT was defined based on 2003 Canadian Diabetes Association criteria. Multivariate logistic and Cox regression analysis was performed to determine independent predictor variables for NODAT. Receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine threshold BG values for diabetes risk. 151 recipients met initial entry criteria. 12 had pre-transplant impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance, among who 7 (58%) developed NODAT. In the remaining 139, 24 (17%) developed NODAT. NODAT risk exceeded 25% for those with pre-transplant RBG > 6.0 mmol/l and 50% if > 7.2 mmol/l. Pre-transplant RBG provided the highest AUC (0.69, p = 0.002) by ROC analysis. Increasing age (p = 0.025), acute rejection (p = 0.011), and RBG > 6.0 mmol/l (p = 0.001) were independent predictors of NODAT. Pre-transplant glucose testing is a specific marker for NODAT. Patients can be counseled of their incremental risk even within the normal BG range if the OGTT is normal.

Value of PAX1 Methylation Analysis by MS-HRM in the Triage of Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance.

PubMed

Li, Shi-Rong; Wang, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Yu-Hui; Wang, Xi-Bo; Zhao, Jian-Qiang; Xue, Hai-Bin; Jiang, Fu-Guo

2015-01-01

Detection of cervical high grade lesions in patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) is still a challenge. Our study tested the efficacy of the paired boxed gene 1 (PAX1) methylation analysis by methylation-sensitive high-resolution melting (MS-HRM) in the detection of high grade lesions in ASCUS and compared performance with the hybrid capture 2 (HC2) human papillomavirus (HPV) test. A total of 463 consecutive ASCUS women from primary screening were selected. Their cervical scrapings were collected and assessed by PAX1 methylation analysis (MS-HRM) and high-risk HPV-DNA test (HC2). All patients with ASCUS were admitted to colposcopy and cervical biopsies. The Chi- square test was used to test the differences of PAX1 methylation or HPV infection between groups. The specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy for detecting CIN2 + lesions were: 95.6%, 82.4%, and 94.6%, respectively, for the PAX1 MS-HRM test; and 59.7%, 64.7%, and 60.0% for the HC2 HPV test. The PAX1 methylation analysis by MS-HRM demonstrated a better performance than the high-risk HPV-DNA test for the detection of high grade lesions (CIN2 +) in ASCUS cases. This approach could screen out the majority of low grade cases of ASCUS, and thus reduce the referral rate to colposcopy.

Risk analysis in cohort studies with heterogeneous strata. A global chi2-test for dose-response relationship, generalizing the Mantel-Haenszel procedure.

PubMed

Ahlborn, W; Tuz, H J; Uberla, K

1990-03-01

In cohort studies the Mantel-Haenszel estimator ORMH is computed from sample data and is used as a point estimator of relative risk. Test-based confidence intervals are estimated with the help of the asymptotic chi-squared distributed MH-statistic chi 2MHS. The Mantel-extension-chi-squared is used as a test statistic for a dose-response relationship. Both test statistics--the Mantel-Haenszel-chi as well as the Mantel-extension-chi--assume homogeneity of risk across strata, which is rarely present. Also an extended nonparametric statistic, proposed by Terpstra, which is based on the Mann-Whitney-statistics assumes homogeneity of risk across strata. We have earlier defined four risk measures RRkj (k = 1,2,...,4) in the population and considered their estimates and the corresponding asymptotic distributions. In order to overcome the homogeneity assumption we use the delta-method to get "test-based" confidence intervals. Because the four risk measures RRkj are presented as functions of four weights gik we give, consequently, the asymptotic variances of these risk estimators also as functions of the weights gik in a closed form. Approximations to these variances are given. For testing a dose-response relationship we propose a new class of chi 2(1)-distributed global measures Gk and the corresponding global chi 2-test. In contrast to the Mantel-extension-chi homogeneity of risk across strata must not be assumed. These global test statistics are of the Wald type for composite hypotheses.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A proficiency testing program of hemoglobin analysis in prevention and control of severe hemoglobinopathies in Thailand.

PubMed

Karnpean, Rossarin; Fucharoen, Goonnapa; Pansuwan, Anupong; Changtrakul, Duangrudee; Fucharoen, Supan

2013-06-01

No external quality assessment program for hemoglobin (Hb) analysis in the prevention and control of thalassemia has been established in Thailand. To improve the first line provisional diagnostics, the first proficiency testing (PT) program has been established. External Hb controls prepared at our center were sent to Hb analysis laboratories all over the country. Three cycles per year were performed in 2010 and 2011. In each cycle, two control samples with corresponding hematological parameters, designated as husband and his pregnant wife were supplied for Hb analysis. Each member analyzed the control samples in their routine practices. The results of Hb analysis, laboratory interpretation and risk assessment of the expected fetus for severe thalassemia diseases targeted for prevention and control were entered into the report form and sent back to our center. Participants reports were analyzed and classified into four different quality groups; Excellent (when all the three parameters are correct), Good (correct Hb analysis and interpretation but incorrect risk assessment), Fair (correct Hb analysis but incorrect interpretation and risk assessment) and Needs improvement (incorrect Hb analysis). It was found that most participants could report correct Hb types and quantifications but some misinterpretations and risk assessments were noted. These were clearly seen when control samples with more complexity were supplied. These results indicate a further improvement is required in the laboratory interpretation and knowledge of the laboratory diagnosis of thalassemia. The established system should facilitate the prevention and control program of thalassemia in the region.

Audience segmentation as a social-marketing tool in health promotion: use of the risk perception attitude framework in HIV prevention in Malawi.

PubMed

Rimal, Rajiv N; Brown, Jane; Mkandawire, Glory; Folda, Lisa; Böse, Kirsten; Creel, Alisha H

2009-12-01

We sought to determine whether individuals' risk perceptions and efficacy beliefs could be used to meaningfully segment audiences to assist interventions that seek to change HIV-related behaviors. A household-level survey of individuals (N=968) was conducted in 4 districts in Malawi. On the basis of responses about perceptions of risk and beliefs about personal efficacy, we used cluster analysis to create 4 groups within the risk perception attitude framework: responsive (high risk, strong efficacy), avoidance (high risk, weak efficacy), proactive (low risk, strong efficacy), and indifference (low risk, weak efficacy). We ran analysis of covariance models (controlling for known predictors) to determine how membership in the risk perception attitude framework groups would affect knowledge about HIV, HIV-testing uptake, and condom use. A significant association was found between membership in 1 or more of the 4 risk perception attitude framework groups and the 3 study variables of interest: knowledge about HIV (F8, 956=20.77; P<.001), HIV testing uptake (F8, 952=10.91; P<.001), and condom use (F8, 885=29.59; P<.001). The risk perception attitude framework can serve as a theoretically sound audience segmentation technique that can be used to determine whether messages should augment perceptions of risk, beliefs about personal efficacy, or both.

Audience Segmentation as a Social-Marketing Tool in Health Promotion: Use of the Risk Perception Attitude Framework in HIV Prevention in Malawi

PubMed Central

Brown, Jane; Mkandawire, Glory; Folda, Lisa; Böse, Kirsten; Creel, Alisha H.

2009-01-01

Objectives. We sought to determine whether individuals' risk perceptions and efficacy beliefs could be used to meaningfully segment audiences to assist interventions that seek to change HIV-related behaviors. Methods. A household-level survey of individuals (N = 968) was conducted in 4 districts in Malawi. On the basis of responses about perceptions of risk and beliefs about personal efficacy, we used cluster analysis to create 4 groups within the risk perception attitude framework: responsive (high risk, strong efficacy), avoidance (high risk, weak efficacy), proactive (low risk, strong efficacy), and indifference (low risk, weak efficacy). We ran analysis of covariance models (controlling for known predictors) to determine how membership in the risk perception attitude framework groups would affect knowledge about HIV, HIV-testing uptake, and condom use. Results. A significant association was found between membership in 1 or more of the 4 risk perception attitude framework groups and the 3 study variables of interest: knowledge about HIV (F8, 956 = 20.77; P < .001), HIV testing uptake (F8, 952 = 10.91; P < .001), and condom use (F8, 885 = 29.59; P < .001). Conclusions. The risk perception attitude framework can serve as a theoretically sound audience segmentation technique that can be used to determine whether messages should augment perceptions of risk, beliefs about personal efficacy, or both. PMID:19833992

Retest of a Principal Components Analysis of Two Household Environmental Risk Instruments.

PubMed

Oneal, Gail A; Postma, Julie; Odom-Maryon, Tamara; Butterfield, Patricia

2016-08-01

Household Risk Perception (HRP) and Self-Efficacy in Environmental Risk Reduction (SEERR) instruments were developed for a public health nurse-delivered intervention designed to reduce home-based, environmental health risks among rural, low-income families. The purpose of this study was to test both instruments in a second low-income population that differed geographically and economically from the original sample. Participants (N = 199) were recruited from the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program. Paper and pencil surveys were collected at WIC sites by research-trained student nurses. Exploratory principal components analysis (PCA) was conducted, and comparisons were made to the original PCA for the purpose of data reduction. Instruments showed satisfactory Cronbach alpha values for all components. HRP components were reduced from five to four, which explained 70% of variance. The components were labeled sensed risks, unseen risks, severity of risks, and knowledge. In contrast to the original testing, environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) items was not a separate component of the HRP. The SEERR analysis demonstrated four components explaining 71% of variance, with similar patterns of items as in the first study, including a component on ETS, but some differences in item location. Although low-income populations constituted both samples, differences in demographics and risk exposures may have played a role in component and item locations. Findings provided justification for changing or reducing items, and for tailoring the instruments to population-level risks and behaviors. Although analytic refinement will continue, both instruments advance the measurement of environmental health risk perception and self-efficacy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A five-year model to assess the early cost-effectiveness of new diagnostic tests in the early diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Buisman, Leander R; Luime, Jolanda J; Oppe, Mark; Hazes, Johanna M W; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H

2016-06-10

There is a lack of information about the sensitivity, specificity and costs new diagnostic tests should have to improve early diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to explore the early cost-effectiveness of various new diagnostic test strategies in the workup of patients with inflammatory arthritis (IA) at risk of having RA. A decision tree followed by a patient-level state transition model, using data from published literature, cohorts and trials, was used to evaluate diagnostic test strategies. Alternative tests were assessed as add-on to or replacement of the ACR/EULAR 2010 RA classification criteria for all patients and for intermediate-risk patients. Tests included B-cell gene expression (sensitivity 0.60, specificity 0.90, costs €150), MRI (sensitivity 0.90, specificity 0.60, costs €756), IL-6 serum level (sensitivity 0.70, specificity 0.53, costs €50) and genetic assay (sensitivity 0.40, specificity 0.85, costs €750). Patients with IA at risk of RA were followed for 5 years using a societal perspective. Guideline treatment was assumed using tight controlled treatment based on DAS28; if patients had a DAS28 >3.2 at 12 months or later patients could be eligible for starting biological drugs. The outcome was expressed in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (€2014 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) and headroom. The B-cell test was the least expensive strategy when used as an add-on and as replacement in intermediate-risk patients, making it the dominant strategy, as it has better health outcomes and lower costs. As add-on for all patients, the B-cell test was also the most cost-effective test strategy. When using a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained, the IL-6 and MRI strategies were not cost-effective, except as replacement. A genetic assay was not cost-effective in any strategy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the B-cell test was consistently superior in all strategies. When performing univariate sensitivity analysis for intermediate-risk patients, specificity and DAS28 in the B-cell add-on strategy, and DAS28 and sensitivity in the MRI add-on strategy had the largest impact on the cost-effectiveness. This early cost-effectiveness analysis indicated that new tests to diagnose RA are most likely to be cost-effective when the tests are used as an add-on in intermediate-risk patients, and have high specificity, and the test costs should not be higher than €200-€300.

Annotation analysis for testing drug safety signals using unstructured clinical notes

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The electronic surveillance for adverse drug events is largely based upon the analysis of coded data from reporting systems. Yet, the vast majority of electronic health data lies embedded within the free text of clinical notes and is not gathered into centralized repositories. With the increasing access to large volumes of electronic medical data—in particular the clinical notes—it may be possible to computationally encode and to test drug safety signals in an active manner. Results We describe the application of simple annotation tools on clinical text and the mining of the resulting annotations to compute the risk of getting a myocardial infarction for patients with rheumatoid arthritis that take Vioxx. Our analysis clearly reveals elevated risks for myocardial infarction in rheumatoid arthritis patients taking Vioxx (odds ratio 2.06) before 2005. Conclusions Our results show that it is possible to apply annotation analysis methods for testing hypotheses about drug safety using electronic medical records. PMID:22541596

A retrospective analysis of cross-reacting cetuximab IgE antibody and its association with severe infusion reactions.

PubMed

Maier, Sabine; Chung, Christine H; Morse, Michael; Platts-Mills, Thomas; Townes, Leigh; Mukhopadhyay, Pralay; Bhagavatheeswaran, Prabhu; Racenberg, Jan; Trifan, Ovidiu C

2015-01-01

Severe infusion reactions (SIRs) at rates of 5% or less are known side effects of biological agents, including mAbs such as cetuximab. There are currently no prospectively validated risk factors to aid physicians in identifying patients who may be at risk of experiencing an SIR following administration of any of these drugs. A retrospective analysis of 545 banked serum or plasma samples from cancer patients participating in clinical trials of cetuximab was designed to evaluate whether the presence of pretreatment IgE antibodies against cetuximab, as determined by a commercially available assay system, is associated with SIRs during the initial cetuximab infusion. Patients with a positive test indicating the presence of pretreatment antibodies had a higher risk of experiencing an SIR; however, at the prespecified cutoff utilized in this analysis, the test has a relatively low-positive predictive value (0.577 [0.369-0.766]) and a negative predictive value of 0.961 (0.912-0.987) in an unselected patient population. Data collected in this large retrospective validation study support prior observations of an association between the presence of pretreatment IgE antibodies cross-reactive with cetuximab and SIRs. Further analysis of the test's ability to predict patients at risk of an SIR would be required before this assay could be used reliably in this patient population. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human Factors Process Task Analysis Liquid Oxygen Pump Acceptance Test Procedure for the Advanced Technology Development Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diorio, Kimberly A.

2002-01-01

A process task analysis effort was undertaken by Dynacs Inc. commencing in June 2002 under contract from NASA YA-D6. Funding was provided through NASA's Ames Research Center (ARC), Code M/HQ, and Industrial Engineering and Safety (IES). The John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Engineering Development Contract (EDC) Task Order was 5SMA768. The scope of the effort was to conduct a Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (HF PFMEA) of a hazardous activity and provide recommendations to eliminate or reduce the effects of errors caused by human factors. The Liquid Oxygen (LOX) Pump Acceptance Test Procedure (ATP) was selected for this analysis. The HF PFMEA table (see appendix A) provides an analysis of six major categories evaluated for this study. These categories include Personnel Certification, Test Procedure Format, Test Procedure Safety Controls, Test Article Data, Instrumentation, and Voice Communication. For each specific requirement listed in appendix A, the following topics were addressed: Requirement, Potential Human Error, Performance-Shaping Factors, Potential Effects of the Error, Barriers and Controls, Risk Priority Numbers, and Recommended Actions. This report summarizes findings and gives recommendations as determined by the data contained in appendix A. It also includes a discussion of technology barriers and challenges to performing task analyses, as well as lessons learned. The HF PFMEA table in appendix A recommends the use of accepted and required safety criteria in order to reduce the risk of human error. The items with the highest risk priority numbers should receive the greatest amount of consideration. Implementation of the recommendations will result in a safer operation for all personnel.

Treatment options for patients with acute myeloid leukemia with a matched sibling donor: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Sung, Lillian; Buckstein, Rena; Doyle, John J; Crump, Michael; Detsky, Allan S

2003-02-01

The role of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) in the consolidation of young adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with matched sibling donors (MSD) is controversial. Although BMT is associated with increased event free survival compared with intensive chemotherapy (CT) consolidation, BMT also is associated with increased treatment-related mortality and likely decreased quality of life and life expectancy in patients who do not develop recurrent disease. The authors used decision analysis to compare three strategies for maximizing quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in patients with AML in first remission with an MSD: BMT All, BMT None (consolidation CT only), or BMT in high-risk patients, as defined by baseline cytogenetic testing (Test strategy). A second decision-analysis tree was then constructed that compared BMT with CT specifically for patients with intermediate cytogenetics. Using expected QALYs as the outcome measure, the Test, BMT All, and BMT None strategies were associated with 20.10 QALYs, 19.63 QALYs, and 18.38 QALYs, respectively. Thus, the Test strategy, with CT for low-risk patients and BMT for intermediate risk and high-risk patients, was expected to be the optimal strategy. In the intermediate cytogenetic decision analysis, although the expected QALY for BMT recipients was higher compared with CT recipients (19.78 QALYs vs. 18.75 QALYs), because of uncertainty in variable estimates, the optimal choice was less clear. CT consolidation is a reasonable option for patients with AML who have favorable cytogenetics, even if an MSD is available. This model provides a framework from which patients with AML and their physicians can make decisions about consolidation therapy. Copyright 2003 American Cancer Society.DOI 10.1002/cncr.11098

Family history of autoimmune diseases is associated with an increased risk of autism in children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wu, Shunquan; Ding, Yingying; Wu, Fuquan; Li, Ruisheng; Xie, Guoming; Hou, Jun; Mao, Panyong

2015-08-01

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the current evidence on the relationship between family history of autoimmune diseases (ADs) and risk of autism in children, as current evidence suggests inconsistent results. We identified relevant studies by searching PubMed, EmBase, and Web of Science databases up to Dec 2014. Risk estimates from individual studies were pooled using random-effects models. Sub-groups analyses were conducted by some study-level factors. Publication bias was assessed by funnel plots, Egger's regression test and Begg-Mazumdar test. A total of 11 articles were included in the meta-analysis, including 3 cohort studies, 6 case-control studies, and 2 cross-sectional studies. The meta-analysis showed that family history of all ADs combined was associated with a 28% (95% CI: 12-48%) higher risk of autism in children. For some specific ADs, evidence synthesis for risk of autism in children showed a statistically significant association with family history of hypothyroidism (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.07-2.50), type 1 diabetes (OR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.23-1.81), rheumatoid arthritis (OR=1.51, 95% CI: 1.19-1.91), and psoriasis (OR=1.59, 95% CI: 1.28-1.97). The results varied in some subgroups. An overall increased risk of autism in children with family history of ADs was identified. More mechanistic studies are needed to further explain the association between family history of ADs and increased risk of autism in children. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of risk of type 2 diabetes using the Indian Diabetes Risk Score in an urban slum of Pune, Maharashtra, India: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Patil, Reshma S; Gothankar, Jayashree S

2016-04-01

The urban poor is a group that is known to be vulnerable to adoption of a more urbanized lifestyle that places them at a higher risk for diabetes. Individuals who are unaware of their disease status are more prone to micro- and macrovascular complications. Hence, it is necessary to detect this large pool of undiagnosed participants with diabetes and offer them early therapy. The aim of this study was to use the Indian Diabetes Risk Score, developed by the Madras Diabetes Research Foundation (MDRF-IDRS), to assess the prevalence of people at high risk for developing diabetes, and the correlation with known risk factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the field practice area of the urban health training centre of a private medical college in Pune, Maharashtra. A total of 425 participants aged 20 years and above were screened for risk factors, including age, waist circumference, family history of diabetes and physical activity. Random testing of the blood glucose level of participants with a high risk score was carried out using a glucometer. Statistical analysis of the data was performed by using the chi-squared test and logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of people at high risk of diabetes was 36.55%. Among high-risk participants on univariate analysis, primary education (P = 0.004), lower socioeconomic class (P = 0.002), less physical activity (P< 0.001) and high waist circumference (P < 0.001) were major contributing factors, while in the moderate-risk group, lower socioeconomic class and high waist circumference were the prominent risk factors for diabetes. Multivariate analysis showed that higher education, moderate to vigorous activity and high waist circumference were significantly associated with risk status. Out of 140 high-risk participants, 68 (49%) had a random capillary blood glucose level of 110 mg/dL or above. As the prevalence of people at high risk for diabetes was high, lifestyle changes and awareness regarding risk factors is needed to take control of the diabetes in the study population.

Forecasting risk along a river basin using a probabilistic and deterministic model for environmental risk assessment of effluents through ecotoxicological evaluation and GIS.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Simón; Fernandez, Carlos; Barata, Carlos; Tarazona, José Vicente

2009-12-20

This work presents a computer model for Risk Assessment of Basins by Ecotoxicological Evaluation (RABETOX). The model is based on whole effluent toxicity testing and water flows along a specific river basin. It is capable of estimating the risk along a river segment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The Henares River Basin was selected as a case study to demonstrate the importance of seasonal hydrological variations in Mediterranean regions. As model inputs, two different ecotoxicity tests (the miniaturized Daphnia magna acute test and the D.magna feeding test) were performed on grab samples from 5 waste water treatment plant effluents. Also used as model inputs were flow data from the past 25 years, water velocity measurements and precise distance measurements using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The model was implemented into a spreadsheet and the results were interpreted and represented using GIS in order to facilitate risk communication. To better understand the bioassays results, the effluents were screened through SPME-GC/MS analysis. The deterministic model, performed each month during one calendar year, showed a significant seasonal variation of risk while revealing that September represents the worst-case scenario with values up to 950 Risk Units. This classifies the entire area of study for the month of September as "sublethal significant risk for standard species". The probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo analysis was performed on 7 different forecast points distributed along the Henares River. A 0% probability of finding "low risk" was found at all forecast points with a more than 50% probability of finding "potential risk for sensitive species". The values obtained through both the deterministic and probabilistic approximations reveal the presence of certain substances, which might be causing sublethal effects in the aquatic species present in the Henares River.

Hereditary melanoma and predictive genetic testing: why not?

PubMed

Riedijk, S R; de Snoo, F A; van Dijk, S; Bergman, W; van Haeringen, A; Silberg, S; van Elderen, T M T; Tibben, A

2005-09-01

Since p16-Leiden presymptomatic testing for hereditary melanoma has become available in the Netherlands, the benefits and risks of offering such testing are evaluated. The current paper investigated why the non-participants were reluctant to participate in genetic testing. Sixty six eligible individuals, who were knowledgeable about the test but had not participated in genetic testing by January 2003, completed a self-report questionnaire assessing motivation, anxiety, family dynamics, risk knowledge and causal attributions. Non-participants reported anxiety levels below clinical significance. A principal components analysis on reasons for non-participation distinguished two underlying motives: emotional and rational motivation. Rational motivation for non-participation was associated with more accurate risk knowledge, the inclination to preselect mutation carriers within the family and lower scores on anxiety. Emotional motivation for non-participation was associated with disease misperceptions, hesitation to communicate unfavourable test results within the family and higher scores on anxiety. Rational and emotional motivation for non-participation in the genetic test for hereditary melanoma was found. Emotionally motivated individuals may be reluctant to disseminate genetic risk information. Rationally motivated individuals were better informed than emotionally motivated individuals. It is suggested that a leaflet is added to the invitation letter to enhance informed decision-making about genetic testing.

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vouk, Mladen A.; Mcallister, David F.

1993-01-01

Strategies and tools for the testing, risk assessment and risk control of dependable software-based systems were developed. Part of this project consists of studies to enable the transfer of technology to industry, for example the risk management techniques for safety-concious systems. Theoretical investigations of Boolean and Relational Operator (BRO) testing strategy were conducted for condition-based testing. The Basic Graph Generation and Analysis tool (BGG) was extended to fully incorporate several variants of the BRO metric. Single- and multi-phase risk, coverage and time-based models are being developed to provide additional theoretical and empirical basis for estimation of the reliability and availability of large, highly dependable software. A model for software process and risk management was developed. The use of cause-effect graphing for software specification and validation was investigated. Lastly, advanced software fault-tolerance models were studied to provide alternatives and improvements in situations where simple software fault-tolerance strategies break down.

Assessment of risks of EMI for personal medical electronic devices (PMEDs) from emissions of millimeter-wave security screening systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witters, Donald; Bassen, Howard; Guag, Joshua; Addissie, Bisrat; LaSorte, Nickolas; Rafai, Hazem

2013-06-01

This paper describes research and testing of a representative group of high priority body worn and implantable personal medical electronic devices (PMEDs) for exposure to millimeter wave (MMW) advanced imaging technology (AIT) security systems used at airports. The sample PMEDs included in this study were implantable cardiac pacemakers, ICDs, neurostimulators and insulin pumps. These PMEDs are designed and tested for susceptibility to electromagnetic interference (EMI) under the present standards for medical device electromagnetic compatibility (EMC). However, the present standards for medical equipment do not address exposure to the much higher frequency fields that are emitted by MMW security systems. Initial AIT emissions measurements were performed to assess the PMED and passenger exposures. Testing protocols were developed and testing methods were tailored to the type of PMED. In addition, a novel exposure simulation system was developed to allow controlled EMC testing without the need of the MMW AIT system. Methodology, test results, and analysis are presented, along with an assessment of the human exposure and risks for PMED users. The results on this study reveal no effects on the medical devices from the exposure to the MMW security system. Furthermore, the human exposure measurements and analysis showed levels well below applicable standard, and the risks for PMED users and others we assessed to be very low. These findings apply to the types of PMEDs used in the study though these findings might suggest that the risks for other, similar PMEDs would likely be similar.

QF-PCR as a substitute for karyotyping of cytotrophoblast for the analysis of chorionic villi: advantages and limitations from a cytogenetic retrospective audit of 44,727 first-trimester prenatal diagnoses.

PubMed

Grati, Francesca R; Malvestiti, Francesca; Grimi, Beatrice; Gaetani, Elisa; Di Meco, Anna Maria; Trotta, Anna; Liuti, Rosaria; Chinetti, Sara; Dulcetti, Francesca; Ruggeri, Anna Maria; Agrati, Cristina; Frascoli, Giuditta; Milani, Silvia; De Toffol, Simona; Martinoni, Lorenza; Paganini, Silvia; Marcato, Livia; Maggi, Federico; Simoni, Giuseppe

2013-05-01

Karyotyping on chorionic villous samples (CVS) includes the analysis of both cytotrophoblast (STC) and mesenchyme (LTC). This approach requires complex laboratory organization and trained technicians. The introduction of quantitative fluorescent polymerase chain reaction (QF-PCR) instead of conventional karyotyping in low-risk pregnancies opened its application in CVS analysis. Discordant QF-PCR and CVS cytogenetic results were reported, and strategies for CVS analysis were introduced to minimize this risk. The possibility to substitute the STC with QF-PCR was reported. The aim of this study is to evaluate benefits and limitations of the approach QF-PCR + LTC compared with the traditional method STC + LTC and to quantify the associated risks of false results. This study is based on a retrospective cytogenetic audit of CVS results (n = 44 727) generated by the STC + LTC analytic approach. False-negative risks related to true fetal mosaicism type IV, imprinting syndromes and maternal contamination in LTC were calculated. Compared with STC + LTC, QF-PCR + LTC approach is associated with a cumulative false-negative risk of ~1/3100-1/4400. Costs and reporting time of STC in a high-throughput cytogenetic lab are similar to a CE-IVD marked QF-PCR analysis. These results should be clearly highlighted in the pre-test counseling and extensively discussed with the couple prior to testing for informed consent. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Life trajectories, genetic testing, and risk reduction decisions in 18–39 year old women at risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Williams, Janet K.; Bowers, Barbara J.; Calzone, Kathleen

2009-01-01

This qualitative study identified four life trajectories that influenced the decision in young women to have genetic testing for mutations in BRCA1/2 and subsequent risk reduction decisions after receiving a positive mutation result. Fifty nine women between the ages of 18–39 years were interviewed in this grounded theory study, 44 of those tested were found to have a mutation in either BRCA1 or BRCA2. Of those with a mutation, 23 had no history of cancer and 21 had a breast cancer diagnosis. Analysis of the 44 participants tested found that risk reducing decisions were related to the life trajectories that preceded genetic testing. These life trajectories included: 1) Long-standing awareness of breast cancer in the family, 2) Loss of one’s mother to breast cancer at a young age, 3) Expression of concern by a health care provider, and 4) Personal diagnosis of breast cancer. Understanding possible influences behind decision making for genetic testing and risk reduction in young women may assist health care providers in offering age appropriate guidance and support. PMID:18979190

Genetic Counseling for Breast Cancer Susceptibility in African American Women

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

support following breast cancer diagnosis among African American women;33 the availability of spousal and/or partner support following test results... Nanda R, Schumm LP, Cummings S, Fackenthal JD, et al. Genetic testing in an ethnically diverse cohort of high-risk women: a comparative analysis of... diagnosis and treatment on intrusion in African American breast cancer survivors at an increased risk of hereditary disease. Studies are also needed to

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaty, James R.; Starr, Brett R.; Gowan, John W., Jr.

2008-01-01

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

More Young Adults at Risk for High Blood Pressure | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

MedlinePlus

... young adults have high blood pressure. NIH-funded analysis indicates higher risk for young adults than previously ... DASH) clinical study, which tested the effects of food nutrients on blood pressure. It emphasizes consumption of ...

High levels of unprotected anal intercourse and never testing for HIV among men who have sex with men in Nigeria: evidence from a cross-sectional survey for the need for innovative approaches to HIV prevention.

PubMed

Vu, Lung; Andrinopoulos, Katherine; Tun, Waimar; Adebajo, Sylvia

2013-12-01

To describe sexual risk behaviour, correlates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) and never testing for HIV and its implications for HIV prevention interventions among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Nigeria and other similar contexts. A cross-sectional survey was administered to 712 MSM in Abuja, Ibadan and Lagos, recruited through respondent-driven sampling (RDS). Levels of sexual risk behaviour and never having tested for HIV prior to the survey were calculated using weighted data for each city and unweighted data for the pooled sample. Correlates of UAI and never testing for HIV were determined using multiple logistic regression. The risk for HIV and STI among MSM in Nigeria is high, with 43.4% reporting UAI at last sex, 45.1% never having been tested for HIV and 53.9% reporting exchange of sex for resources in the past 6 months. Correlates of UAI in multivariate analysis included living in Ibadan, marriage or cohabitation with a woman, identification as bisexual, not having tested for HIV and being HIV-positive. Correlates of not having tested for HIV in multivariate analysis included living in Ibadan, young age, less education, unemployment and report of UAI. HIV testing is low and associated with UAI. Findings merit targeted and innovative approaches for HIV prevention for MSM, especially access to HIV self-testing. Attention to social and structural determinants of health-seeking and sexual risk behaviour is also needed, including the criminalisation of homosexuality and social marginalisation of MSM.

Hazard Analysis for Pneumatic Flipper Suitport/Z-1 Manned Evaluation, Chamber B, Building 32. Revision: Basic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2012-01-01

One of the characteristics of an effective safety program is the recognition and control of hazards before mishaps or failures occur. Conducting potentially hazardous tests necessitates a thorough hazard analysis in order to protect our personnel from injury and our equipment from damage. The purpose of this hazard analysis is to define and address the potential hazards and controls associated with the Z1 Suit Port Test in Chamber B located in building 32, and to provide the applicable team of personnel with the documented results. It is imperative that each member of the team be familiar with the hazards and controls associated with his/her particular tasks, assignments, and activities while interfacing with facility test systems, equipment, and hardware. The goal of this hazard analysis is to identify all hazards that have the potential to harm personnel and/or damage facility equipment, flight hardware, property, or harm the environment. This analysis may also assess the significance and risk, when applicable, of lost test objectives when substantial monetary value is involved. The hazards, causes, controls, verifications, and risk assessment codes have been documented on the hazard analysis work sheets in appendix A of this document. The preparation and development of this report is in accordance with JPR 1700.1, JSC Safety and Health Handbook.

Meta-analysis of association between mobile phone use and glioma risk.

PubMed

Wang, Yabo; Guo, Xiaqing

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between mobile phone use and glioma risk through pooling the published data. By searching Medline, EMBSE, and CNKI databases, we screened the open published case-control or cohort studies about mobile phone use and glioma risk by systematic searching strategy. The pooled odds of mobile use in glioma patients versus healthy controls were calculated by meta-analysis method. The statistical analysis was done by Stata12.0 software (http://www.stata.com). After searching the Medline, EMBSE, and CNKI databases, we ultimately included 11 studies range from 2001 to 2008. For ≥1 year group, the data were pooled by random effects model. The combined data showed that there was no association between mobile phone use and glioma odds ratio (OR) =1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91-1.25,P > 0.05). However, a significant association was found between mobile phone use more than 5 years and glioma risk OR = 1.35 (95% CI: 1.09-1.62, P < 0.05). The publication bias of this study was evaluated by funnel plot and line regression test. The funnel plot and line regression test (t = 0.25,P = 0.81) did not indicate any publication bias. Long-term mobile phone use may increase the risk of developing glioma according to this meta-analysis.

What Is so Special about Male Adolescent Sexual Offending? A Review and Test of Explanations through Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seto, Michael C.; Lalumiere, Martin L.

2010-01-01

We tested special and general explanations of male adolescent sexual offending by conducting a meta-analysis of 59 independent studies comparing male adolescent sex offenders (n = 3,855) with male adolescent non-sex offenders (n = 13,393) on theoretically derived variables reflecting general delinquency risk factors (antisocial tendencies),…

Motor function and incident dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kueper, Jacqueline Kathleen; Speechley, Mark; Lingum, Navena Rebecca; Montero-Odasso, Manuel

2017-09-01

cognitive and mobility decline are interrelated processes, whereby mobility decline coincides or precedes the onset of cognitive decline. to assess whether there is an association between performance on motor function tests and incident dementia. electronic database, grey literature and hand searching identified studies testing for associations between baseline motor function and incident dementia in older adults. of 2,540 potentially relevant documents, 37 met the final inclusion criteria and were reviewed qualitatively. Three meta-analyses were conducted using data from 10 studies. Three main motor domains-upper limb motor function, parkinsonism and lower limb motor function-emerged as associated with increased risk of incident dementia. Studies including older adults without neurological overt disease found a higher risk of incident dementia associated with poorer performance on composite motor function scores, balance and gait velocity (meta-analysis pooled HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.41, 2.65). Mixed results were found across different study samples for upper limb motor function, overall parkinsonism (meta-analysis pooled OR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.31, 7.08), bradykinesia and rigidity. Studies restricted to older adults with Parkinson's Disease found weak or no association with incident dementia even for motor domains highly associated in less restrictive samples. Tremor was not associated with an increased risk of dementia in any population (meta-analysis pooled HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.31, 2.03). lower limb motor function was associated with increased risk of developing dementia, while tremor and hand grip strength were not. Our results support future research investigating the inclusion of quantitative motor assessment, specifically gait velocity tests, for clinical dementia risk evaluation. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Readiness to perform testing : a critical analysis of the concept and current practices.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-08-01

Readiness to Perform (RTP) testing has become an increasingly popular alternative to biochemical screening as a method for assessing risk factors (i.e., drug, alcohol, fatigue, etc.) in the workplace. The focus of RTP testing is on the assessment of ...

Smoking increases the risk of diabetic foot amputation: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Min; Zhang, Wei; Yan, Zhaoli; Yuan, Xiangzhen

2018-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that smoking is associated with diabetic foot amputation. However, the currently available results are inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, the present study performed a meta-analysis to systematically review the association between smoking and diabetic foot amputation and to investigate the risk factors of diabetic foot amputation. Public databases, including PubMed and Embase, were searched prior to 29th February 2016. The heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and the I 2 statistic, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated and pooled appropriately. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the stability of the results. In addition, Egger's test was applied to assess any potential publication bias. Based on the research, a total of eight studies, including five cohort studies and three case control studies were included. The data indicated that smoking significantly increased the risk of diabetic foot amputation (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.50; P<0.0001) compared with non-smoking. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the pooled analysis did not vary substantially following the exclusion of any one study. Additionally, there was no evidence of publication bias (Egger's test, t=0.1378; P=0.8958). Furthermore, no significant difference was observed between the minor and major amputation groups in patients who smoked (OR=0.79; 95% CI, 0.24-2.58). The results of the present meta-analysis suggested that smoking is a notable risk factor for diabetic foot amputation. Smoking cessation appears to reduce the risk of diabetic foot amputation.

Knowledge and preferences concerning acute HIV testing programs among both Peruvian men who have sex with men and transgender women.

PubMed

Wandell, Grace M; Molina, Yamile; Sánchez, Hugo; Greer, Anna C; Ríos, Jessica; Bain, Carolyn; Segura, Patricia; Lama, Javier R; Sánchez, Jorge; Duerr, Ann

2017-09-01

Immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) for acute HIV infection (AHI) may decrease HIV transmission in high-risk populations. This study evaluated knowledge of AHI and AHI testing program preferences in Lima, Peru through four semi-structured focus groups with high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) ( n = 20) and transgender women (TW) ( n = 16). Using content analysis, emergent themes included knowledge of AHI symptoms, AHI transmission potential, and the HIV testing window period, and preferences concerning point of care results. Participants demonstrated low familiarity with the term AHI, but many correctly identified AHI symptoms. However, these symptoms may not motivate testing because they overlap with common viral illnesses and AIDS. Some were aware that infectiousness is highest during AHI, and believe this knowledge would facilitate HIV testing. The shortened window period with AHI testing would encourage testing following high-risk sex. Delayed result notification would not decrease AHI testing demand among MSM, although it might for some TW.

Knowledge and preferences concerning acute HIV testing programs among both Peruvian men who have sex with men and transgender women

PubMed Central

Wandell, Grace M; Molina, Yamile; Sánchez, Hugo; Greer, Anna C; Ríos, Jessica; Bain, Carolyn; Segura, Patricia; Lama, Javier R; Sánchez, Jorge; Duerr, Ann

2017-01-01

Immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) for acute HIV infection (AHI) may decrease HIV transmission in high-risk populations. This study evaluated knowledge of AHI and AHI testing program preferences in Lima, Peru through four semi-structured focus groups with high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) (n = 20) and transgender women (TW) (n = 16). Using content analysis, emergent themes included knowledge of AHI symptoms, AHI transmission potential, and the HIV testing window period, and preferences concerning point of care results. Participants demonstrated low familiarity with the term AHI, but many correctly identified AHI symptoms. However, these symptoms may not motivate testing because they overlap with common viral illnesses and AIDS. Some were aware that infectiousness is highest during AHI, and believe this knowledge would facilitate HIV testing. The shortened window period with AHI testing would encourage testing following high-risk sex. Delayed result notification would not decrease AHI testing demand among MSM, although it might for some TW. PMID:28056724

A Tissue Systems Pathology Assay for High-Risk Barrett's Esophagus.

PubMed

Critchley-Thorne, Rebecca J; Duits, Lucas C; Prichard, Jeffrey W; Davison, Jon M; Jobe, Blair A; Campbell, Bruce B; Zhang, Yi; Repa, Kathleen A; Reese, Lia M; Li, Jinhong; Diehl, David L; Jhala, Nirag C; Ginsberg, Gregory; DeMarshall, Maureen; Foxwell, Tyler; Zaidi, Ali H; Lansing Taylor, D; Rustgi, Anil K; Bergman, Jacques J G H M; Falk, Gary W

2016-06-01

Better methods are needed to predict risk of progression for Barrett's esophagus. We aimed to determine whether a tissue systems pathology approach could predict progression in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus, indefinite for dysplasia, or low-grade dysplasia. We performed a nested case-control study to develop and validate a test that predicts progression of Barrett's esophagus to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), based upon quantification of epithelial and stromal variables in baseline biopsies. Data were collected from Barrett's esophagus patients at four institutions. Patients who progressed to HGD or EAC in ≥1 year (n = 79) were matched with patients who did not progress (n = 287). Biopsies were assigned randomly to training or validation sets. Immunofluorescence analyses were performed for 14 biomarkers and quantitative biomarker and morphometric features were analyzed. Prognostic features were selected in the training set and combined into classifiers. The top-performing classifier was assessed in the validation set. A 3-tier, 15-feature classifier was selected in the training set and tested in the validation set. The classifier stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk classes [HR, 9.42; 95% confidence interval, 4.6-19.24 (high-risk vs. low-risk); P < 0.0001]. It also provided independent prognostic information that outperformed predictions based on pathology analysis, segment length, age, sex, or p53 overexpression. We developed a tissue systems pathology test that better predicts risk of progression in Barrett's esophagus than clinicopathologic variables. The test has the potential to improve upon histologic analysis as an objective method to risk stratify Barrett's esophagus patients. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(6); 958-68. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

FMEA of manual and automated methods for commissioning a radiotherapy treatment planning system.

PubMed

Wexler, Amy; Gu, Bruce; Goddu, Sreekrishna; Mutic, Maya; Yaddanapudi, Sridhar; Olsen, Lindsey; Harry, Taylor; Noel, Camille; Pawlicki, Todd; Mutic, Sasa; Cai, Bin

2017-09-01

To evaluate the level of risk involved in treatment planning system (TPS) commissioning using a manual test procedure, and to compare the associated process-based risk to that of an automated commissioning process (ACP) by performing an in-depth failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). The authors collaborated to determine the potential failure modes of the TPS commissioning process using (a) approaches involving manual data measurement, modeling, and validation tests and (b) an automated process utilizing application programming interface (API) scripting, preloaded, and premodeled standard radiation beam data, digital heterogeneous phantom, and an automated commissioning test suite (ACTS). The severity (S), occurrence (O), and detectability (D) were scored for each failure mode and the risk priority numbers (RPN) were derived based on TG-100 scale. Failure modes were then analyzed and ranked based on RPN. The total number of failure modes, RPN scores and the top 10 failure modes with highest risk were described and cross-compared between the two approaches. RPN reduction analysis is also presented and used as another quantifiable metric to evaluate the proposed approach. The FMEA of a MTP resulted in 47 failure modes with an RPN ave of 161 and S ave of 6.7. The highest risk process of "Measurement Equipment Selection" resulted in an RPN max of 640. The FMEA of an ACP resulted in 36 failure modes with an RPN ave of 73 and S ave of 6.7. The highest risk process of "EPID Calibration" resulted in an RPN max of 576. An FMEA of treatment planning commissioning tests using automation and standardization via API scripting, preloaded, and pre-modeled standard beam data, and digital phantoms suggests that errors and risks may be reduced through the use of an ACP. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Using the failure mode and effects analysis model to improve parathyroid hormone and adrenocorticotropic hormone testing

PubMed Central

Magnezi, Racheli; Hemi, Asaf; Hemi, Rina

2016-01-01

Background Risk management in health care systems applies to all hospital employees and directors as they deal with human life and emergency routines. There is a constant need to decrease risk and increase patient safety in the hospital environment. The purpose of this article is to review the laboratory testing procedures for parathyroid hormone and adrenocorticotropic hormone (which are characterized by short half-lives) and to track failure modes and risks, and offer solutions to prevent them. During a routine quality improvement review at the Endocrine Laboratory in Tel Hashomer Hospital, we discovered these tests are frequently repeated unnecessarily due to multiple failures. The repetition of the tests inconveniences patients and leads to extra work for the laboratory and logistics personnel as well as the nurses and doctors who have to perform many tasks with limited resources. Methods A team of eight staff members accompanied by the Head of the Endocrine Laboratory formed the team for analysis. The failure mode and effects analysis model (FMEA) was used to analyze the laboratory testing procedure and was designed to simplify the process steps and indicate and rank possible failures. Results A total of 23 failure modes were found within the process, 19 of which were ranked by level of severity. The FMEA model prioritizes failures by their risk priority number (RPN). For example, the most serious failure was the delay after the samples were collected from the department (RPN =226.1). Conclusion This model helped us to visualize the process in a simple way. After analyzing the information, solutions were proposed to prevent failures, and a method to completely avoid the top four problems was also developed. PMID:27980440

Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism After Spine Surgery

PubMed Central

Tominaga, Hiroyuki; Setoguchi, Takao; Tanabe, Fumito; Kawamura, Ichiro; Tsuneyoshi, Yasuhiro; Kawabata, Naoya; Nagano, Satoshi; Abematsu, Masahiko; Yamamoto, Takuya; Yone, Kazunori; Komiya, Setsuro

2015-01-01

Abstract The efficacy and safety of chemical prophylaxis to prevent the development of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE) following spine surgery are controversial because of the possibility of epidural hematoma formation. Postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) after spine surgery occurs at a frequency similar to that seen after joint operations, so it is important to identify the risk factors for VTE formation following spine surgery. We therefore retrospectively studied data from patients who had undergone spinal surgery and developed postoperative VTE to identify those risk factors. We conducted a retrospective clinical study with logistic regression analysis of a group of 80 patients who had undergone spine surgery at our institution from June 2012 to August 2013. All patients had been screened by ultrasonography for DVT in the lower extremities. Parameters of the patients with VTE were compared with those without VTE using the Mann–Whitney U-test and Fisher exact probability test. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors associated with VTE. A value of P < 0.05 was used to denote statistical significance. The prevalence of VTE was 25.0% (20/80 patients). One patient had sensed some incongruity in the chest area, but the vital signs of all patients were stable. VTEs had developed in the pulmonary artery in one patient, in the superficial femoral vein in one patient, in the popliteal vein in two patients, and in the soleal vein in 18 patients. The Mann–Whitney U-test and Fisher exact probability test showed that, except for preoperative walking disability, none of the parameters showed a significant difference between patients with and without VTE. Risk factors identified in the multivariate logistic regression analysis were preoperative walking disability and age. The prevalence of VTE after spine surgery was relatively high. The most important risk factor for developing postoperative VTE was preoperative walking disability. Gait training during the early postoperative period is required to prevent VTE. PMID:25654385

Chlamydia trachomatis infection and sexual behaviour among female students attending higher education in the Republic of Ireland

PubMed Central

O'Connell, Emer; Brennan, Wendy; Cormican, Martin; Glacken, Marita; O'Donovan, Diarmuid; Vellinga, Akke; Cahill, Niall; Lysaght, Fionnguala; O'Donnell, Joan

2009-01-01

Background There are no prevalence data on Chlamydia trachomatis relating to female students attending higher education available for the Republic of Ireland. This information is required to guide on the necessity for Chlamydia screening programmes in higher education settings. This research aimed to determine the prevalence of and predictive risk factors for Chlamydia trachomatis genital infection among female higher education students in Ireland. Methods All females presenting during one-day periods at Student Health Units in three higher education institutions in two cities in the Republic of Ireland were invited to participate. Participants completed a questionnaire on lifestyle and socio-demographic factors and provided a urine sample. Samples were tested for C. trachomatis DNA by a PCR based technique (Cobas Amplicor, Roche). To examine possible associations between a positive test and demographic and lifestyle risk factors, a univariate analysis was performed. All associations with a p value < 0.05 were included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results Of the 460 sexually active participants 22 tested positive (prevalence 4.8%; 95% CI 3.0 to 7.1%). Variables associated with significantly increased risk were current suggestive symptoms, two or more one-night stands and three or more lifetime sexual partners. The students displayed high-risk sexual behaviour. Conclusion The prevalence of C. trachomatis infection and the lack of awareness of the significance of suggestive symptoms among sexually experienced female students demonstrate the need for a programme to test asymptomatic or non-presenting higher education students. The risk factors identified by multivariate analysis may be useful in identifying those who are most likely to benefit from screening. Alcohol abuse, condom use, sexual behaviour (at home and abroad) and, knowledge of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) (including asymptomatic nature or relevant symptoms) were identified as target areas for health promotion strategies. These strategies are needed in view of the high-risk sexual activity identified. PMID:19874584

Identifying elderly people at risk for cognitive decline by using the 2-step test.

PubMed

Maruya, Kohei; Fujita, Hiroaki; Arai, Tomoyuki; Hosoi, Toshiki; Ogiwara, Kennichi; Moriyama, Shunnichiro; Ishibashi, Hideaki

2018-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose is to verify the effectiveness of the 2-step test in predicting cognitive decline in elderly individuals. [Subjects and Methods] One hundred eighty-two participants aged over 65 years underwent the 2-step test, cognitive function tests and higher level competence testing. Participants were classified as Robust, <1.3, and <1.1 using criteria regarding the locomotive syndrome risk stage for the 2-step test, variables were compared between groups. In addition, ordered logistic analysis was used to analyze cognitive functions as independent variables in the three groups, using the 2-step test results as the dependent variable, with age, gender, etc. as adjustment factors. [Results] In the crude data, the <1.3 and <1.1 groups were older and displayed lower motor and cognitive functions than did the Robust group. Furthermore, the <1.3 group exhibited significantly lower memory retention than did the Robust group. The 2-step test was related to the Stroop test (β: 0.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.12). [Conclusion] The finding is that the risk stage of the 2-step test is related to cognitive functions, even at an initial risk stage. The 2-step test may help with earlier detection and implementation of prevention measures for locomotive syndrome and mild cognitive impairment.

Repeated testing improves achievement in a blended learning approach for risk competence training of medical students: results of a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Spreckelsen, C; Juenger, J

2017-09-26

Adequate estimation and communication of risks is a critical competence of physicians. Due to an evident lack of these competences, effective training addressing risk competence during medical education is needed. Test-enhanced learning has been shown to produce marked effects on achievements. This study aimed to investigate the effect of repeated tests implemented on top of a blended learning program for risk competence. We introduced a blended-learning curriculum for risk estimation and risk communication based on a set of operationalized learning objectives, which was integrated into a mandatory course "Evidence-based Medicine" for third-year students. A randomized controlled trial addressed the effect of repeated testing on achievement as measured by the students' pre- and post-training score (nine multiple-choice items). Basic numeracy and statistical literacy were assessed at baseline. Analysis relied on descriptive statistics (histograms, box plots, scatter plots, and summary of descriptive measures), bootstrapped confidence intervals, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), and effect sizes (Cohen's d, r) based on adjusted means and standard deviations. All of the 114 students enrolled in the course consented to take part in the study and were assigned to either the intervention or control group (both: n = 57) by balanced randomization. Five participants dropped out due to non-compliance (control: 4, intervention: 1). Both groups profited considerably from the program in general (Cohen's d for overall pre vs. post scores: 2.61). Repeated testing yielded an additional positive effect: while the covariate (baseline score) exhibits no relation to the post-intervention score, F(1, 106) = 2.88, p > .05, there was a significant effect of the intervention (repeated tests scenario) on learning achievement, F(1106) = 12.72, p < .05, d = .94, r = .42 (95% CI: [.26, .57]). However, in the subgroup of participants with a high initial numeracy score no similar effect could be observed. Dedicated training can improve relevant components of risk competence of medical students. An already promising overall effect of the blended learning approach can be improved significantly by implementing a test-enhanced learning design, namely repeated testing. As students with a high initial numeracy score did not profit equally from repeated testing, target-group specific opt-out may be offered.

Heritability of Boldness and Hypoxia Avoidance in European Seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax.

PubMed

Ferrari, Sébastien; Horri, Khaled; Allal, François; Vergnet, Alain; Benhaim, David; Vandeputte, Marc; Chatain, Béatrice; Bégout, Marie-Laure

2016-01-01

To understand the genetic basis of coping style in European seabass, fish from a full factorial mating (10 females x 50 males) were reared in common garden and individually tagged. Individuals coping style was characterized through behavior tests at four different ages, categorizing fish into proactive or reactive: a hypoxia avoidance test (at 255 days post hatching, dph) and 3 risk-taking tests (at 276, 286 and 304 dph). We observed significant heritability of the coping style, higher for the average of risk-taking scores (h2 = 0.45 ± 0.14) than for the hypoxia avoidance test (h2 = 0.19 ± 0.10). The genetic correlations between the three risk-taking scores were very high (rA = 0.96-0.99) showing that although their repeatability was moderately high (rP = 0.64-0.72), successive risk-taking tests evaluated the same genetic variation. A mild genetic correlation between the results of the hypoxia avoidance test and the average of risk-taking scores (0.45 ± 0.27) suggested that hypoxia avoidance and risk-taking tests do not address exactly the same behavioral and physiological responses. Genetic correlations between weight and risk taking traits showed negative values whatever the test used in our population i.e. reactive individual weights were larger. The results of this quantitative genetic analysis suggest a potential for the development of selection programs based on coping styles that could increase seabass welfare without altering growth performances. Overall, it also contributes to a better understanding of the origin and the significance of individual behavioral differences.

Interaction between polymorphisms in aspirin metabolic pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk: A case-control study in unselected white European populations.

PubMed

Sheth, Harsh; Northwood, Emma; Ulrich, Cornelia M; Scherer, Dominique; Elliott, Faye; Barrett, Jennifer H; Forman, David; Wolf, C Roland; Smith, Gillian; Jackson, Michael S; Santibanez-Koref, Mauro; Haile, Robert; Casey, Graham; Jenkins, Mark; Win, Aung Ko; Hopper, John L; Marchand, Loic Le; Lindor, Noralane M; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Potter, John D; Burn, John; Bishop, D Timothy

2018-01-01

Regular aspirin use is associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Variation in aspirin's chemoprevention efficacy has been attributed to the presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We conducted a meta-analysis using two large population-based case-control datasets, the UK-Leeds Colorectal Cancer Study Group and the NIH-Colon Cancer Family Registry, having a combined total of 3325 cases and 2262 controls. The aim was to assess 42 candidate SNPs in 15 genes whose association with colorectal cancer risk was putatively modified by aspirin use, in the literature. Log odds ratios (ORs) and standard errors were estimated for each dataset separately using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and study site, and dataset-specific results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Meta-analysis showed association between SNPs rs6983267, rs11694911 and rs2302615 with CRC risk reduction (All P<0.05). Association for SNP rs6983267 in the CCAT2 gene only was noteworthy after multiple test correction (P = 0.001). Site-specific analysis showed association between SNPs rs1799853 and rs2302615 with reduced colon cancer risk only (P = 0.01 and P = 0.004, respectively), however neither reached significance threshold following multiple test correction. Meta-analysis of SNPs rs2070959 and rs1105879 in UGT1A6 gene showed interaction between aspirin use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively); stratification by aspirin use showed an association for decreased CRC risk for aspirin users having a wild-type genotype (rs2070959 OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.68-0.86; rs1105879 OR = 0.77 95% CI = 0.69-0.86) compared to variant allele cariers. The direction of the interaction however is in contrast to that published in studies on colorectal adenomas. Both SNPs showed potential site-specific interaction with aspirin use and colon cancer risk only (Pinteraction = 0.006 and 0.008, respectively), with the direction of association similar to that observed for CRC. Additionally, they showed interaction between any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (including aspirin) use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 for both). All gene x environment (GxE) interactions however were not significant after multiple test correction. Candidate gene investigation indicated no evidence of GxE interaction between genetic variants in genes involved in aspirin pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk.

Interaction between polymorphisms in aspirin metabolic pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk: A case-control study in unselected white European populations

PubMed Central

Ulrich, Cornelia M.; Scherer, Dominique; Elliott, Faye; Barrett, Jennifer H.; Forman, David; Wolf, C. Roland; Smith, Gillian; Jackson, Michael S.; Santibanez-Koref, Mauro; Haile, Robert; Casey, Graham; Jenkins, Mark; Win, Aung Ko; Hopper, John L.; Marchand, Loic Le; Lindor, Noralane M.; Thibodeau, Stephen N.; Potter, John D.; Burn, John; Bishop, D. Timothy

2018-01-01

Regular aspirin use is associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Variation in aspirin’s chemoprevention efficacy has been attributed to the presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We conducted a meta-analysis using two large population-based case-control datasets, the UK-Leeds Colorectal Cancer Study Group and the NIH-Colon Cancer Family Registry, having a combined total of 3325 cases and 2262 controls. The aim was to assess 42 candidate SNPs in 15 genes whose association with colorectal cancer risk was putatively modified by aspirin use, in the literature. Log odds ratios (ORs) and standard errors were estimated for each dataset separately using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and study site, and dataset-specific results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Meta-analysis showed association between SNPs rs6983267, rs11694911 and rs2302615 with CRC risk reduction (All P<0.05). Association for SNP rs6983267 in the CCAT2 gene only was noteworthy after multiple test correction (P = 0.001). Site-specific analysis showed association between SNPs rs1799853 and rs2302615 with reduced colon cancer risk only (P = 0.01 and P = 0.004, respectively), however neither reached significance threshold following multiple test correction. Meta-analysis of SNPs rs2070959 and rs1105879 in UGT1A6 gene showed interaction between aspirin use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively); stratification by aspirin use showed an association for decreased CRC risk for aspirin users having a wild-type genotype (rs2070959 OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.68–0.86; rs1105879 OR = 0.77 95% CI = 0.69–0.86) compared to variant allele cariers. The direction of the interaction however is in contrast to that published in studies on colorectal adenomas. Both SNPs showed potential site-specific interaction with aspirin use and colon cancer risk only (Pinteraction = 0.006 and 0.008, respectively), with the direction of association similar to that observed for CRC. Additionally, they showed interaction between any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (including aspirin) use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 for both). All gene x environment (GxE) interactions however were not significant after multiple test correction. Candidate gene investigation indicated no evidence of GxE interaction between genetic variants in genes involved in aspirin pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk. PMID:29425227

Role of premission testing in the National Missile Defense system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tillman, Janice V.; Atkinson, Beverly

2001-09-01

The purpose of the National Missile Defense (NMD) system is to provide detection, discrimination, engagement, interception, and negation of ballistic missile attacks targeted at the United States (U.S.), including Alaska and Hawaii. This capability is achieved through the integration of weapons, sensors, and a battle management, command, control and communications (BMC3) system. The NMD mission includes surveillance, warning, cueing, and engagement of threat objects prior to potential impact on U.S. targets. The NMD Acquisition Strategy encompasses an integrated test program using Integrated Ground Tests (IGTs), Integrated Flight Tests (IFTs), Risk Reduction Flights (RRFs), Pre Mission Tests (PMTs), Command and Control (C2) Simulations, and other Specialty Tests. The IGTs utilize software-in-the-loop/hardware-in-the-loop (SWIL / HWIL) and digital simulations. The IFTs are conducted with targets launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) and interceptors launched from Kwajalein Missile Range (KMR). The RRFs evaluate NMD BMC3 and NMD sensor functional performance and integration by leveraging planned Peacekeeper and Minuteman III operational test flights and other opportunities without employing the NMD interceptor. The PMTs are nondestructive System-level tests representing the use of NMD Element Test Assets in their IFT configuration and are conducted to reduce risks in achieving the IFT objectives. Specifically, PMTs are used to reduce integration, interface, and performance risks associated with Flight Tests to ensure that as much as possible, the System is tested without expending a target or an interceptor. This paper examines several critical test planning and analysis functions as they relate to the NMD Integrated Flight Test program and, in particular, to Pre-Mission Testing. Topics to be discussed include: - Flight-test program planning; - Pre-Test Integration activities; and - Test Execution, Analysis, and Post-Flight Reconstruction.

Cerebrovascular risk factors for patients with cerebral watershed infarction: A case-control study based on computed tomography angiography in a population from Southwest China.

PubMed

Dong, Mei-Xue; Hu, Ling; Huang, Yuan-Jun; Xu, Xiao-Min; Liu, Yang; Wei, You-Dong

2017-07-01

To determine cerebrovascular risk factors for patients with cerebral watershed infarction (CWI) from Southwest China.Patients suffering from acute ischemic stroke were categorized into internal CWI (I-CWI), external CWI (E-CWI), or non-CWI (patients without CWI) groups. Clinical data were collected and degrees of steno-occlusion of all cerebral arteries were scored. Arteries associated with the circle of Willis were also assessed. Data were compared using Pearson chi-squared tests for categorical data and 1-way analysis of variance with Bonferroni post hoc tests for continuous data, as appropriate. Multivariate binary logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent cerebrovascular risk factors for CWI.Compared with non-CWI, I-CWI had higher degrees of steno-occlusion of the ipsilateral middle cerebral artery, ipsilateral carotid artery, and contralateral middle cerebral artery. E-CWI showed no significant differences. All the 3 arteries were independent cerebrovascular risk factors for I-CWI confirmed by multivariate binary logistic regression analysis. I-CWI had higher degrees of steno-occlusion of the ipsilateral middle cerebral artery compared with E-CWI. No significant differences were found among arteries associated with the circle of Willis.The ipsilateral middle cerebral artery, carotid artery, and contralateral middle cerebral artery were independent cerebrovascular risk factors for I-CWI. No cerebrovascular risk factor was identified for E-CWI.

Lower eccentric hamstring strength and single leg hop for distance predict hamstring injury in PETE students.

PubMed

Goossens, L; Witvrouw, E; Vanden Bossche, L; De Clercq, D

2015-01-01

Hamstring injuries have not been under research in physical education teacher education (PETE) students so far. Within the frame of the development of an injury prevention program, for this study we conducted an analysis of modifiable risk factors for hamstring injuries in PETE students. Hamstring injuries of 102 freshmen bachelor PETE students were registered prospectively during one academic year. Eighty-one students completed maximum muscle strength tests of hip extensors, hamstrings, quadriceps (isometric) and hamstrings (eccentric) at the start of the academic year. Sixty-nine of the latter completed a single leg hop for distance (SLHD). Risk factors for hamstring injuries were statistically detected using logistic regression. Sixteen hamstring injuries (0.16 injuries/student/academic year; 0.46 injuries/1000 h) occurred to 10 participants. Eight cases were included in the risk factor analysis. Lower eccentric hamstring strength (odds ratio (ODD) = 0.977; p = 0.043), higher isometric/eccentric hamstring strength ratio (ODD = 970.500; p = 0.019) and lower score on the SLHD (ODD = 0.884; p = 0.005) were significant risk factors for hamstring injury. A combination of eccentric hamstring strength test and SLHD could give a good risk analysis of hamstring injuries in PETE students. This might offer great perspectives for easily applicable screening in a clinical setting.

HIV Self-Testing Increases HIV Testing Frequency in High Risk Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Katz, David A; Golden, Matthew R; Hughes, James P; Farquhar, Carey; Stekler, Joanne D

2018-04-24

Self-testing may increase HIV testing and decrease the time people with HIV are unaware of their status, but there is concern that absence of counseling may result in increased HIV risk. Seattle, Washington. We randomly assigned 230 high-risk HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) to have access to oral fluid HIV self-tests at no cost versus testing as usual .for 15 months. The primary outcome was self-reported number of HIV tests during follow-up. To evaluate self-testing's impact on sexual behavior, we compared the following between arms: non-HIV-concordant condomless anal intercourse (CAI) and number of male CAI partners in the last 3 months (measured at 9 and 15 months) and diagnosis with a bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI: early syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydial infection) at the final study visit (15 months). A post hoc analysis compared the number of STI tests reported during follow-up. Men randomized to self-testing reported significantly more HIV tests during follow-up (mean=5.3, 95%CI=4.7-6.0) than those randomized to testing as usual (3.6, 3.2-4.0; p<.0001), representing an average increase of 1.7 tests per participant over 15 months. Men randomized to self-testing reported using an average of 3.9 self-tests. Self-testing was non-inferior with respect to all markers of HIV risk. Men in the self-testing arm reported significantly fewer STI tests during follow-up (mean=2.3, 95%CI=1.9-2.7) than men in the control arm (3.2, 2.8-3.6; p=0.0038). Access to free HIV self-testing increased testing frequency among high-risk MSM and did not impact sexual behavior or STI acquisition.

[Nutritional status and risk factors for malnutrition in low-income urban elders].

PubMed

Hyun, Hye Sun; Lee, Insook

2014-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the nutritional status of low-income urban elders by diversified ways, and to analyze the risk factors for malnutrition. The participants in this study were 183 low-income elders registered at a visiting healthcare facility in a public health center. Data were collected using anthropometric measurements, and a questionnaire survey. For data analysis, descriptive statistics, χ²-test, t-test, Fisher's exact test, multiple logistic regression analysis were performed using SPSS 20.0. Regarding the nutritional status of low-income elders as measured by the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), 10.4% of the elders were classified as malnourished; 57.4% as at high risk for malnutrition; and 32.2% as having normal nutrition levels. The main factors affecting malnutrition for low-income elders were loss of appetite (OR=3.34, 95% CI: 1.16~9.56) and difficulties in meal preparation (OR=2.35, 95% CI: 1.13~4.88). In order to effectively improve nutrition in low-income urban elders, it is necessary to develop individual intervention strategies to manage factors that increase the risk of malnutrition and to use systematic approach strategies in local communities in terms of a nutrition support system.

Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2017-07-01

Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Insomnia and the risk of depression: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Li, Liqing; Wu, Chunmei; Gan, Yong; Qu, Xianguo; Lu, Zuxun

2016-11-05

Observational studies suggest that insomnia might be associated with an increased risk of depression with inconsistent results. This study aimed at conducting a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to evaluate the association between insomnia and the risk of depression. Relevant cohort studies were comprehensively searched from the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases (up to October 2014) and from the reference lists of retrieved articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). The I 2 statistic was used to assess the heterogeneity and potential sources of heterogeneity were assessed with meta-regression. The potential publication bias was explored by using funnel plots, Egger's test, and Duval and Tweedie trim-and-fill methods. Thirty-four cohort studies involving 172,077 participants were included in this meta-analysis with an average follow-up period of 60.4 months (ranging from 3.5 to 408). Statistical analysis suggested a positive relationship between insomnia and depression, the pooled RR was 2.27 (95 % CI: 1.89-2.71), and a high heterogeneity was observed (I 2  = 92.6 %, P < 0.001). Visual inspection of the funnel plot revealed some asymmetry. The Egger's test identified evidence of substantial publication bias (P <0.05), but correction for this bias using trim-and-fill method did not alter the combined risk estimates. This meta-analysis indicates that insomnia is significantly associated with an increased risk of depression, which has implications for the prevention of depression in non-depressed individuals with insomnia symptoms.

The application of quality risk management to the bacterial endotoxins test: use of hazard analysis and critical control points.

PubMed

Annalaura, Carducci; Giulia, Davini; Stefano, Ceccanti

2013-01-01

Risk analysis is widely used in the pharmaceutical industry to manage production processes, validation activities, training, and other activities. Several methods of risk analysis are available (for example, failure mode and effects analysis, fault tree analysis), and one or more should be chosen and adapted to the specific field where they will be applied. Among the methods available, hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) is a methodology that has been applied since the 1960s, and whose areas of application have expanded over time from food to the pharmaceutical industry. It can be easily and successfully applied to several processes because its main feature is the identification, assessment, and control of hazards. It can be also integrated with other tools, such as fishbone diagram and flowcharting. The aim of this article is to show how HACCP can be used to manage an analytical process, propose how to conduct the necessary steps, and provide data templates necessary to document and useful to follow current good manufacturing practices. In the quality control process, risk analysis is a useful tool for enhancing the uniformity of technical choices and their documented rationale. Accordingly, it allows for more effective and economical laboratory management, is capable of increasing the reliability of analytical results, and enables auditors and authorities to better understand choices that have been made. The aim of this article is to show how hazard analysis and critical control points can be used to manage bacterial endotoxins testing and other analytical processes in a formal, clear, and detailed manner.

Wisconsin Card Sorting Test performance and impulsivity in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy: suicidal risk and suicide attempts.

PubMed

Garcia Espinosa, Arlety; Andrade Machado, René; Borges González, Susana; García González, María Eugenia; Pérez Montoto, Ariadna; Toledo Sotomayor, Guillermo

2010-01-01

The goal of the study described here was to determine if executive dysfunction and impulsivity are related to risk for suicide and suicide attempts in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. Forty-two patients with temporal lobe epilepsy were recruited. A detailed medical history, neurological examination, serial EEGs, Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, executive function, and MRI were assessed. Multiple regression analysis was carried out to examine predictive associations between clinical variables and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test measures. Patients' scores on the Risk for Suicide Scale (n=24) were greater than 7, which means they had the highest relative risk for suicide attempts. Family history of psychiatric disease, current major depressive episode, left temporal lobe epilepsy, and perseverative responses and total errors on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test increased by 6.3 and 7.5 suicide risk and suicide attempts, respectively. Executive dysfunction (specifically perseverative responses and more total errors) contributed greatly to suicide risk. Executive performance has a major impact on suicide risk and suicide attempts in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypomagnesemia predicts postoperative biochemical hypocalcemia after thyroidectomy.

PubMed

Luo, Han; Yang, Hongliu; Zhao, Wanjun; Wei, Tao; Su, Anping; Wang, Bin; Zhu, Jingqiang

2017-05-25

To investigate the role of magnesium in biochemical and symptomatic hypocalcemia, a retrospective study was conducted. Less-than-total thyroidectomy patients were excluded from the final analysis. Identified the risk factors of biochemical and symptomatic hypocalcemia, and investigated the correlation by logistic regression and correlation test respectively. A total of 304 patients were included in the final analysis. General incidence of hypomagnesemia was 23.36%. Logistic regression showed that gender (female) (OR = 2.238, p = 0.015) and postoperative hypomagnesemia (OR = 2.010, p = 0.017) were independent risk factors for biochemical hypocalcemia. Both Pearson and partial correlation tests indicated there was indeed significant relation between calcium and magnesium. However, relative decreasing of iPTH (>70%) (6.691, p < 0.001) and hypocalcemia (2.222, p = 0.046) were identified as risk factors of symptomatic hypocalcemia. The difference remained significant even in normoparathyroidism patients. Postoperative hypomagnesemia was independent risk factor of biochemical hypocalcemia. Relative decline of iPTH was predominating in predicting symptomatic hypocalcemia.

The Construct and Measurement of Perceived Risk of Nonremunerated Blood Donation: Evidence from the Chinese Public

PubMed Central

Chen, Liangyong

2015-01-01

The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior. PMID:26526570

The Construct and Measurement of Perceived Risk of Nonremunerated Blood Donation: Evidence from the Chinese Public.

PubMed

Chen, Liangyong; Ma, Zujun

2015-01-01

The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior.

Mapping eQTLs in the Norfolk Island Genetic Isolate Identifies Candidate Genes for CVD Risk Traits

PubMed Central

Benton, Miles C.; Lea, Rod A.; Macartney-Coxson, Donia; Carless, Melanie A.; Göring, Harald H.; Bellis, Claire; Hanna, Michelle; Eccles, David; Chambers, Geoffrey K.; Curran, Joanne E.; Harper, Jacquie L.; Blangero, John; Griffiths, Lyn R.

2013-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects millions of people worldwide and is influenced by numerous factors, including lifestyle and genetics. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) influence gene expression and are good candidates for CVD risk. Founder-effect pedigrees can provide additional power to map genes associated with disease risk. Therefore, we identified eQTLs in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island (NI) and tested for associations between these and CVD risk factors. We measured genome-wide transcript levels of blood lymphocytes in 330 individuals and used pedigree-based heritability analysis to identify heritable transcripts. eQTLs were identified by genome-wide association testing of these transcripts. Testing for association between CVD risk factors (i.e., blood lipids, blood pressure, and body fat indices) and eQTLs revealed 1,712 heritable transcripts (p < 0.05) with heritability values ranging from 0.18 to 0.84. From these, we identified 200 cis-acting and 70 trans-acting eQTLs (p < 1.84 × 10−7) An eQTL-centric analysis of CVD risk traits revealed multiple associations, including 12 previously associated with CVD-related traits. Trait versus eQTL regression modeling identified four CVD risk candidates (NAAA, PAPSS1, NME1, and PRDX1), all of which have known biological roles in disease. In addition, we implicated several genes previously associated with CVD risk traits, including MTHFR and FN3KRP. We have successfully identified a panel of eQTLs in the NI pedigree and used this to implicate several genes in CVD risk. Future studies are required for further assessing the functional importance of these eQTLs and whether the findings here also relate to outbred populations. PMID:24314549

Relationship between alcohol-related expectancies and anterior brain functioning in young men at risk for developing alcoholism.

PubMed

Deckel, A W; Hesselbrock, V; Bauer, L

1995-04-01

This experiment examined the relationship between anterior brain functioning and alcohol-related expectancies. Ninety-one young men at risk for developing alcoholism were assessed on the Alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire (AEQ) and administered neuropsychological and EEG tests. Three of the scales on the AEQ, including the "Enhanced Sexual Functioning" scale, the "Increased Social Assertiveness" scale, and items from the "Global/Positive Change scale," were used, because each of these scales has been found to discriminate alcohol-based expectancies adequately by at least two separate sets of investigators. Regression analysis found that anterior neuropsychological tests (including the Wisconsin Card Sorting test, the Porteus Maze test, the Controlled Oral Word Fluency test, and the Luria-Nebraska motor functioning tests) were predictive of the AEQ scale scores on regression analysis. One of the AEQ scales, "Enhanced Sexual Functioning," was also predicted by WAIS-R-Verbal scales, whereas the "Global/Positive" AEQ scale was predicted by the WAIS-R Performance scales. Regression analysis using EEG power as predictors found that left versus right hemisphere "difference" scores obtained from frontal EEG leads were predictive of the three AEQ scales. Conversely, parietal EEG power did not significantly predict any of the expectancy scales. It is concluded that anterior brain any of the expectancy scales. It is concluded that anterior brain functioning is associated with alcohol-related expectancies. These findings suggest that alcohol-related expectancy may be, in part, biologically determined by frontal/prefrontal systems, and that dysfunctioning in these systems may serve as a risk factor for the development of alcohol-related behaviors.

Development of carrier testing for common inborn errors of metabolism in the Wisconsin Plain population.

PubMed

Kuhl, Ashley; van Calcar, Sandra; Baker, Mei; Seroogy, Christine M; Rice, Gregory; Scott Schwoerer, Jessica

2017-03-01

This community project is an initiative through the University of Wisconsin Biochemical Genetics Clinic and the Wisconsin Newborn Screening Program to identify members of the Plain population who are at risk for having children with maple syrup urine disease (MSUD) or propionic acidemia (PA) or who have PA. Because of the high prevalence of metabolic conditions in the Plain population and the importance of early intervention, a statewide outreach project was developed to provide targeted variant analysis of the common MSUD and PA pathogenic variants in this population through health-care provider distribution of blood spot testing kits. Awareness was achieved through outreach efforts with the state midwives guild and Plain population meetings. Eighty individuals were tested; diagnosis was confirmed for three adults with PA and one couple was identified as being at risk for having a child with PA. Genetic counseling was provided to those identified. Follow-up diagnostic testing was completed for the at-risk couple's children; none were found to be affected. This initiative successfully provided accessible clinical testing for MSUD and PA for a high-risk population. Early identification of at-risk couples sets the foundation for early care of at-risk neonates, thereby improving future clinical outcomes.Genet Med 19 3, 352-356.

Evidence-Based Approach to the Analysis of Serious Decompression Sickness with Application to EVA Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conkin, Johnny

2001-01-01

It is important to understand the risk of serious hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) in order to develop procedures and treatment responses to mitigate the risk. Since it is not ethical to conduct prospective tests about serious DCS with humans, the necessary information was gathered from 73 published reports. We hypothesize that a 4-hr 100% oxygen (O2) prebreathe results in a very low risk of serious DCS, and test this through analysis. We evaluated 258 tests containing information from 79,366 exposures in attitude chambers. Serious DCS was documented in 918 men during the tests. Serious DCS are signs and symptoms broadly classified as Type II DCS. A risk function analysis with maximum likelihood optimization was performed to identify significant explanatory variables, and to create a predictive model for the probability of serious DCS [P(serious DCS)]. Useful variables were Tissue Ratio, the planned time spent at altitude (T(sub alt)), and whether or not repetitive exercise was performed at altitude. Tissue Ratio is P1N2/P2, where P1N2 is calculated nitrogen (N2) pressure in a compartment with a 180-min half-time for N2 pressure just before ascent, and P2 is ambient pressure after ascent. A prebreathe and decompression profile Shuttle astronauts use for extravehicular activity (EVA) includes a 4-hr prebreathe with 100% O2, an ascent to P2 = 4.3 lb per sq. in. absolute, and a T(sub alt) = 6 hr. The P(serious DCS) is: 0.0014 (0.00096 - 0.00196, 95% confidence interval) with exercise and 0.00025 (0.00016 - 0.00035) without exercise. Given 100 Shuttle EVAs to date and no report of serious DCS, the true risk is less than 0.03 with 95% confidence (Binomial Theorem). It is problematic to estimate the risk of serious DCS since it appears infrequently, even if the estimate is based on thousands of altitude chamber exposures. The true risk to astronauts may lie between the extremes of the confidence intervals (0.00016 - 0.00196) since the contribution of other factors, particularly exercise, to the risk of serious DCS during EVA is unknown. A simple model that only accounts for four important variables in retrospective data is still helpful to increase our understanding about the risk of serious DCS.

The Influence of Adolescence on Parents' Perspectives of Testing and Discussing Inherited Cancer Predisposition.

PubMed

Schultz, Corinna L; Alderfer, Melissa A; Lindell, Robert B; McClain, Zachary; Zelley, Kristin; Nichols, Kim E; Ford, Carol A

2018-06-16

Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a highly penetrant cancer predisposition syndrome that may present with a first cancer before or during adolescence/young adulthood. Families offered LFS genetic testing for their children can inform our understanding of how the unique developmental context of adolescence influences parental perspectives about genetic testing and discussions of cancer risk. In this study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 46 parents of children at risk for LFS to capture those perspectives. Analysis utilized summary descriptive statistics and inductive qualitative content coding. Most parents (33/46; 72%) expressed beliefs that adolescence influences the importance of LFS testing and/or discussions about genetic risk. Twenty-six parents related this influence to cognitive, physical, and social changes occurring during adolescence. Aspects of adolescence perceived as promoting LFS testing/discussion included developmental appropriateness, risks of cancer in adolescence, need for medical screening decisions, influence on behaviors, transition to adult health care, and reproductive risks. Aspects of adolescence perceived as complicating LFS testing/discussions included potential negative emotional impact, misunderstanding, added burden, and negative impact on self-image or future planning. Parents recognize the complex influence that adolescence has on LFS testing and conversations surrounding results. Further research is needed to understand the actual impact of genetic testing on young people, and how to best support parents and adolescents within the broader context of heritable diseases.

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers

PubMed Central

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. Methods In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Results Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Conclusion Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided. PMID:19036144

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-11-26

Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided.

Unstable bodyweight and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kodama, Satoru; Fujihara, Kazuya; Ishiguro, Hajime; Horikawa, Chika; Ohara, Nobumasa; Yachi, Yoko; Tanaka, Shiro; Shimano, Hitoshi; Kato, Kiminori; Hanyu, Osamu; Sone, Hirohito

2017-07-01

The present meta-analysis aimed to clarify the association of unstable bodyweight with the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus, an association that has been controversial among longitudinal studies. An electronic literature search using EMBASE and MEDLINE was followed up to 31 August 2016. The relative risks (RRs) of type 2 diabetes mellitus in individuals with unstable bodyweight were pooled using the inverse variance method. Eight studies were eligible for the meta-analysis. The median duration of measurements of weight change and follow-up years for ascertaining type 2 diabetes mellitus were 13.5 and 9.4 years, respectively. The pooled RR for the least vs most stable category was 1.33 (95% confidence interval 1.12-1.57). Between-study heterogeneity was statistically significant (P = 0.048). Whether type 2 diabetes mellitus was ascertained by blood testing explained 66.0% of the variance in the logarithm of RR (P = 0.02). In three studies in which blood testing was carried out, type 2 diabetes mellitus risk was not significant (RR 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.25). Furthermore, publication bias that inflated type 2 diabetes mellitus risk was statistically detected by Egger's test (P = 0.09). Unstable bodyweight might be modestly associated with the elevated risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus; although serious biases, such as diagnostic suspicion bias and publication bias, made it difficult to assess this association. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Application of Statistics in Engineering Technology Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhan, Wei; Fink, Rainer; Fang, Alex

2010-01-01

Statistics is a critical tool for robustness analysis, measurement system error analysis, test data analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, and many other fields in the engineering world. Traditionally, however, statistics is not extensively used in undergraduate engineering technology (ET) programs, resulting in a major disconnect from industry…

Risk factors for Staphylococcus aureus postpartum breast abscess.

PubMed

Branch-Elliman, Westyn; Golen, Toni H; Gold, Howard S; Yassa, David S; Baldini, Linda M; Wright, Sharon B

2012-01-01

Staphylococcus aureus (SA) breast abscesses are a complication of the postpartum period. Risk factors for postpartum SA breast abscesses are poorly defined, and literature is conflicting. Whether risk factors for methicillin-resistant SA (MRSA) and methicillin-susceptible SA (MSSA) infections differ is unknown. We describe novel risk factors associated with postpartum breast abscesses and the changing epidemiology of this infection. We conducted a cohort study with a nested case-control study (n = 216) involving all patients with culture-confirmed SA breast abscess among >30 000 deliveries at our academic tertiary care center from 2003 through 2010. Data were collected from hospital databases and through abstraction from medical records. All SA cases were compared with both nested controls and full cohort controls. A subanalysis was completed to determine whether risk factors for MSSA and MRSA breast abscess differ. Univariate analysis was completed using Student's t test, Wilcoxon rank-sum test, and analysis of variance, as appropriate. A multivariable stepwise logistic regression was used to determine final adjusted results for both the case-control and the cohort analyses. Fifty-four cases of culture-confirmed abscess were identified: 30 MRSA and 24 MSSA. Risk factors for postpartum SA breast abscess in multivariable analysis include in-hospital identification of a mother having difficulty breastfeeding (odds ratio, 5.00) and being a mother employed outside the home (odds ratio, 2.74). Risk factors did not differ between patients who developed MRSA and MSSA infections. MRSA is an increasingly important pathogen in postpartum women; risk factors for postpartum SA breast abscess have not changed with the advent of community-associated MRSA.

Health care professionals' attitudes towards population-based genetic testing and risk-stratification for ovarian cancer: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Hann, Katie E J; Fraser, Lindsay; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Waller, Jo; Sanderson, Saskia C; Freeman, Madeleine; Jacobs, Ian; Lanceley, Anne

2017-12-16

Ovarian cancer is usually diagnosed at a late stage when outcomes are poor. Personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction, based on genetic and epidemiological information and risk stratified management in adult women could improve outcomes. Examining health care professionals' (HCP) attitudes to ovarian cancer risk stratified management, willingness to support women, self-efficacy (belief in one's own ability to successfully complete a task), and knowledge about ovarian cancer will help identify training needs in anticipation of personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction being introduced. An anonymous survey was distributed online to HCPs via relevant professional organisations in the UK. Kruskal-Wallis tests and pairwise comparisons were used to compare knowledge and self-efficacy scores between different types of HCPs, and attitudes toward population-based genetic testing and risk stratified management were described. Content analysis was undertaken of free text responses concerning HCPs willingness to discuss risk management options with women. One hundred forty-six eligible HCPs completed the survey: oncologists (31%); genetics clinicians (30%); general practitioners (22%); gynaecologists (10%); nurses (4%); and 'others'. Scores for knowledge of ovarian cancer and genetics, and self-efficacy in conducting a cancer risk consultation were generally high but significantly lower for general practitioners compared to genetics clinicians, oncologists, and gynaecologists. Support for population-based genetic testing was not high (<50%). Attitudes towards ovarian cancer risk stratification were mixed, although the majority of participants indicated a willingness to discuss management options with patients. Larger samples are required to investigate attitudes to population-based genetic testing for ovarian cancer risk and to establish why some HCPs are hesitant to offer testing to all adult female patients. If ovarian cancer risk assessment using genetic testing and non-genetic information including epidemiological information is rolled out on a population basis, training will be needed for HCPs in primary care to enable them to provide appropriate support to women at each stage of the process.

Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

PubMed

MacGillivray, Brian H

2017-08-01

In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases; and basing decision rules on clearly articulated values and evidence, rather than convention. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Understanding Referral Patterns for Bone Mineral Density Testing among Family Physicians: A Qualitative Descriptive Study.

PubMed

Munce, Sarah E P; Allin, Sonya; Carlin, Leslie; Sale, Joanna; Hawker, Gillian; Kim, Sandra; Butt, Debra A; Polidoulis, Irene; Tu, Karen; Jaglal, Susan B

2016-01-01

Introduction. Evidence of inappropriate bone mineral density (BMD) testing has been identified in terms of overtesting in low risk women and undertesting among patients at high risk. In light of these phenomena, the objective of this study was to understand the referral patterns for BMD testing among Ontario's family physicians (FPs). Methods. A qualitative descriptive approach was adopted. Twenty-two FPs took part in a semi-structured interview lasting approximately 30 minutes. An inductive thematic analysis was performed on the transcribed data in order to understand the referral patterns for BMD testing. Results. We identified a lack of clarity about screening for osteoporosis with a tendency for baseline BMD testing in healthy, postmenopausal women and a lack of clarity on the appropriate age for screening for men in particular. A lack of clarity on appropriate intervals for follow-up testing was also described. Conclusions. These findings lend support to what has been documented at the population level suggesting a tendency among FPs to refer menopausal women (at low risk). Emphasis on referral of high-risk groups as well as men and further clarification and education on the appropriate intervals for follow-up testing is warranted.

Positive view and increased likely uptake of follow-up testing with analysis of cell-free fetal DNA as alternative to invasive testing among Danish pregnant women.

PubMed

Miltoft, Caroline B; Rode, Line; Tabor, Ann

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the attitude (view, likely uptake and preferred strategy) towards cell-free fetal DNA (cfDNA) testing among pregnant women before a first-trimester risk assessment for trisomy 21 (unselected women) and after obtaining a high risk. Unselected and high-risk women attending first-trimester screening (Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital) were invited to fill out the questionnaire Antenatal testing for Down syndrome as an online survey. The survey included 203 unselected and 50 high-risk women (response rates of 74.8% and 84.7%, respectively). Nearly all considered cfDNA testing a positive development in antenatal care, and 97.2% would like it to be offered. Offering cfDNA testing as an alternative to invasive testing would increase the uptake of follow-up testing compared with invasive testing alone (98.8% vs. 90.7%, p < 0.001). Women who would only accept follow up by cfDNA testing were more likely to continue an affected pregnancy (30.0% vs. 3.6%, p < 0.001) or have doubts about termination (50.0% vs. 32.1%, p < 0.001). Offering cfDNA testing would likely increase the uptake of follow-up testing without a corresponding rise in the termination rate of affected fetuses as some women test for information only. However, both unselected and high-risk women had overwhelmingly positive views underlining attention to avoid routinization. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Polymorphisms in Telomere Length Associated TERC and TERT predispose for Ischemic Stroke in a Chinese Han population.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuo; Ji, Guofa; Liang, Yiqian; Zhang, Rui; Shi, Puyu; Guo, Dangshe; Li, Chunqi; Feng, Jing; Liu, Feng; Peng, Rong; Chen, Mingwei

2017-01-06

The role of telomere in genomic stability is an established fact. Variation in leukocyte telomere length (LTL) has been considered a crucial factor that associated with age-associated diseases. To elucidate the association between LTL variation and ischemic stroke (IS) risk, we selected ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in three genes (TERC, TERT and RTEL1) that previously reported link to LTL, and genotyped SNPs of these genes in a case-control study. The association between polymorphisms and IS risk were tested by Chi squared test and haplotype analysis. In allele association analysis, allele "C" in rs10936599 of TERC gene and allele "G" in rs2853677 of TERT gene were found to have an increased risk of IS when compared with allele "T" and "A", respectively. Model association analysis showed that genotype "G/A" in the overdominant model and genotypes "G/A" and "A/A" in the dominant model of rs2242652 presented a more likelihood to have IS. Another TERT locus (rs2853677) with genotype "G" was also found IS-related risky in the log-additive model. Taken together, our results suggest a potential association between LTL related TERC, TERT gene variants and ischemic stroke risk.

Risk factors for HIV and STI diagnosis in a community-based HIV/STI testing and counselling site for men having sex with men (MSM) in a large German city in 2011-2012.

PubMed

Marcus, Ulrich; Ort, Jasmin; Grenz, Marc; Eckstein, Kai; Wirtz, Karin; Wille, Andreas

2015-01-13

In recent years community-based voluntary counselling and testing sites (CB-VCT) for men having sex with men (MSM) have been established in larger cities in Germany to offer more opportunities for HIV testing. Increasingly, CB-VCTs also offer testing for other bacterial sexually transmitted infections. In Hamburg, tests in CB-VCTs are offered free and anonymously. Data on demographics and sexual risk behaviours are collected with a paper questionnaire. Questionnaire data from the MSM CB-VCT in Hamburg were linked with serological test results for HIV and syphilis, and with rectal and pharyngeal swab results for gonorrhoea and chlamydia. MSM were defined as males reporting male sex partners. CB-VCT clients were characterized demographically, and associations between sexual behaviour variables and diagnosis of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STI) were analysed by bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among the male clients of the CB-VCT in 2011-2012 who were tested for HIV or any STI 1476 reported male sex partners. Unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) was reported as reason for testing by 61% of the clients. Forty-one of 1413 clients testing for HIV were tested positive (2.9%). Twenty-four of 1380 clients testing for syphilis required treatment (1.7%). Tests for simultaneous detection of N. gonorrhoea and Chlamydia trachomatis were conducted on 882 pharyngeal and 642 rectal swabs, revealing 58 (=6.6%) pharyngeal and 71 (=11.1%) rectal infections with one or both pathogens. In multivariate logistic regression analysis number of partners, UAI (OR=2.42) and relying on visual impression when selecting sex partners (OR = 2.92) were associated with increased risks for diagnosis of syphilis or a rectal STI. Syphilis or rectal STI diagnosis (OR=4.52) were associated with increased risk for HIV diagnosis. The MSM CB-VCT in Hamburg reaches clients at high risk for HIV and STIs. The diagnosis of syphilis or a rectal STI was associated with increased odds of testing positive for HIV. Due to the high prevalence of curable bacterial STI among clients and because syphilis and rectal bacterial STI may facilitate HIV transmission, MSM asking for HIV tests in CB-VCTs should also be offered tests for other bacterial STIs.

Occupational risk for Legionella infection among dental healthcare workers: meta-analysis in occupational epidemiology.

PubMed

Petti, Stefano; Vitali, Matteo

2017-07-13

The occupational risk for Legionella infection among dental healthcare workers (DHCWs) is conjectured because of the risk of routine inhalation of potentially contaminated aerosols produced by the dental instruments. Nevertheless, occupational epidemiology studies are contrasting. This meta-analysis assessed the level of scientific evidence regarding the relative occupational risk for Legionella infection among DHCWs. Literature search was performed without time and language restrictions, using broad data banks (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, GOOGLE Scholar) and generic keywords ('legionella' AND 'dent*'). Analytical cross-sectional studies comparing prevalence of high serum Legionella antibody levels in DHCWs and occupationally unexposed individuals were considered. The relative occupational risk was assessed through prevalence ratio (PR) with 95% CI. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed (Cochran's Q test) and was used to choose the meta-analytic method. Study quality (modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) and publication bias (Begg and Mazumdar's test, Egger and colleagues' test, trim and fill R 0 method) were assessed formally and considered for the sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis to study inclusion, subgroup analyses (dental staff categories; publication year, before vs after 1998, ie, 5 years after the release by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the infection control guidelines in dental healthcare setting) were performed. Seven studies were included (2232 DHCWs, 1172 occupationally unexposed individuals). No evidence of publication bias was detected. The pooled PR estimate was statistically non-significant at 95% level (1.7; 95% CI 0.8 to 3.2), study-quality adjustment did not change the PR considerably (PR, 1.5; 95% CI 0.5 to 4.1). PR was statistically significant before 1998 and no longer significant after 1998. Subgroup analysis according to DHCW categories was inconclusive. There is no scientific evidence that DHCWs are at high occupational risk. The differences between former and recent studies could be due to different characteristics of municipal water systems and the infection control guideline dissemination. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

On the importance of accounting for competing risks in pediatric cancer trials designed to delay or avoid radiotherapy: I. Basic concepts and first analyses.

PubMed

Tai, Bee-Choo; Grundy, Richard G; Machin, David

2010-04-01

In trials designed to delay or avoid irradiation among children with malignant brain tumor, although irradiation after disease progression is an important event, patients who have disease progression may decline radiotherapy (RT), or those without disease progression may opt for elective RT. To accurately describe the cumulative need for RT in such instances, it is crucial to account for these distinct events and to evaluate how each contributes to the delay or advancement of irradiation via a competing risks analysis. We describe the summary of competing events in such trials using competing risks methods based on cumulative incidence functions and Gray's test. The results obtained are contrasted with standard survival methods based on Kaplan-Meier curves, cause-specific hazard functions and log-rank test. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates all event-specific rates. The cause-specific hazard analysis showed reduction in hazards for all events (A: RT after progression; B: no RT after progression; C: elective RT) among children with ependymoma. For event A, a higher cumulative incidence was reported for ependymoma. Although Gray's test failed to detect any difference (p = 0.331) between histologic subtypes, the log-rank test suggested marginal evidence (p = 0.057). Similarly, for event C, the log-rank test found stronger evidence of reduction in hazard among those with ependymoma (p = 0.005) as compared with Gray's test (p = 0.086). To evaluate treatment differences, failing to account for competing risks using appropriate methodology may lead to incorrect interpretations.

Does the Sex Risk Quiz Predict Mycoplasma genitalium Infection in Urban Adolescents and Young Adult Women?

PubMed

Ronda, Jocelyn; Gaydos, Charlotte A; Perin, Jamie; Tabacco, Lisa; Coleman, Jenell; Trent, Maria

2018-06-04

Mycoplasma genitalium (MG) is a common sexually transmitted infection (STI) but there are limited strategies to identify individuals at risk of MG. Previously a sex risk quiz was used to predict STIs including Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC), and/or Trichomonas vaginalis (TV). The original quiz categorized individuals ≤25 years old as at risk of STIs, but the Centers for Disease Control identifies females <25 years old as at risk of STIs. In this study, the quiz was changed to categorize females <25 years old as high risk. The objective was to determine if the age-modified risk quiz predicted MG infection. A cross-sectional analysis of a prospective longitudinal study was performed including female adolescents and young adults (AYA) evaluated in multiple outpatient clinics. Participants completed an age-modified risk quiz about sexual practices. Scores ranged from 0 to 10 and were categorized as low-risk (0-3), medium-risk (4-7), and high-risk (8-10) based upon the STI prevalence for each score. Vaginal and/or endocervical specimens were tested for MG, TV, CT, and GC using the Aptima Gen-Probe nucleic amplification test. There were 693 participants. Most participants reported having 0-1 sexual partners in the last 90 days (91%) and inconsistent condom use (84%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis controlling for race, education, and symptom status demonstrated that a medium-risk score predicted MG infection among AYA <25 years old (adjusted OR 2.56 [95% CI 1.06-6.18]). A risk quiz may be useful during clinical encounters to identify AYA at risk of MG.

Herd-level risk factors for bovine viral diarrhea infection in cattle of Tamil Nadu.

PubMed

Kumar, Subbiah Krishna; Palanivel, K M; Sukumar, K; Ronald, B Samuel Masilamoni; Selvaraju, G; Ponnudurai, G

2018-04-01

A cross-sectional study was carried out to identify risk factors for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection in 62 randomly selected dairy herds which were tested for BVD serum antibodies by using an indirect ELISA kit (IDEXX). Results from the chi-square test analysis were interpreted by analyzing by chi-square test. A sum of 500 sera samples were screened and 66 animals (13.20%) showed positive for BVDV antibody. Within herd, BVD seroprevalence was 12-65%. This study concluded that epidemiological risk factors like location, herd size, housing patterns like, tail to tail system, roofing pattern, distance between the manure pit and farm, and distance between farms were significantly associated with BVDV serological status (P < 0.05).

Buffet test in the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Clarence P., Jr.; Hergert, Dennis W.; Butler, Thomas W.; Herring, Fred M.

1992-01-01

A buffet test of a commercial transport model was accomplished in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. This aeroelastic test was unprecedented for this wind tunnel and posed a high risk to the facility. This paper presents the test results from a structural dynamics and aeroelastic response point of view and describes the activities required for the safety analysis and risk assessment. The test was conducted in the same manner as a flutter test and employed onboard dynamic instrumentation, real time dynamic data monitoring, automatic, and manual tunnel interlock systems for protecting the model. The procedures and test techniques employed for this test are expected to serve as the basis for future aeroelastic testing in the National Transonic Facility. This test program was a cooperative effort between the Boeing Commercial Airplane Company and the NASA Langley Research Center.

Association of fruit and vegetables with the risk of nasopharyngeal cancer: Evidence from a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Jin, Jian; Ouyang, Zhiguo; Wang, Zhaoyan

2014-01-01

Quantification of the association between the intake of vegetables and fruit and risk of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) is controversial. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between vegetables and fruit and NPC risk. Pertinent studies were identified by a search in PubMed, Web of Knowledge and Wan Fang Med Online. Random-effects models were used to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Publication bias was estimated using Egger's regression asymmetry test. Finally, 15 articles comprising 8208 NPC cases were included in this meta-analysis. The combined results showed that there was significant association between vegetables and fruit intake and NPC risk. The pooled RRs were 0.60 (95% CI = 0.47–0.76) for vegetables and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.56–0.70) for fruit. No publication bias was detected. Our analysis indicated that intake of vegetables and fruit may have a protective effect on NPC. Since the potential biases and confounders could not be ruled out completely in this meta-analysis, further studies are needed. PMID:25008797

Next generation testing strategy for assessment of genomic damage: A conceptual framework and considerations.

PubMed

Dearfield, Kerry L; Gollapudi, B Bhaskar; Bemis, Jeffrey C; Benz, R Daniel; Douglas, George R; Elespuru, Rosalie K; Johnson, George E; Kirkland, David J; LeBaron, Matthew J; Li, Albert P; Marchetti, Francesco; Pottenger, Lynn H; Rorije, Emiel; Tanir, Jennifer Y; Thybaud, Veronique; van Benthem, Jan; Yauk, Carole L; Zeiger, Errol; Luijten, Mirjam

2017-06-01

For several decades, regulatory testing schemes for genetic damage have been standardized where the tests being utilized examined mutations and structural and numerical chromosomal damage. This has served the genetic toxicity community well when most of the substances being tested were amenable to such assays. The outcome from this testing is usually a dichotomous (yes/no) evaluation of test results, and in many instances, the information is only used to determine whether a substance has carcinogenic potential or not. Over the same time period, mechanisms and modes of action (MOAs) that elucidate a wider range of genomic damage involved in many adverse health outcomes have been recognized. In addition, a paradigm shift in applied genetic toxicology is moving the field toward a more quantitative dose-response analysis and point-of-departure (PoD) determination with a focus on risks to exposed humans. This is directing emphasis on genomic damage that is likely to induce changes associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes. This paradigm shift is moving the testing emphasis for genetic damage from a hazard identification only evaluation to a more comprehensive risk assessment approach that provides more insightful information for decision makers regarding the potential risk of genetic damage to exposed humans. To enable this broader context for examining genetic damage, a next generation testing strategy needs to take into account a broader, more flexible approach to testing, and ultimately modeling, of genomic damage as it relates to human exposure. This is consistent with the larger risk assessment context being used in regulatory decision making. As presented here, this flexible approach for examining genomic damage focuses on testing for relevant genomic effects that can be, as best as possible, associated with an adverse health effect. The most desired linkage for risk to humans would be changes in loci associated with human diseases, whether in somatic or germ cells. The outline of a flexible approach and associated considerations are presented in a series of nine steps, some of which can occur in parallel, which was developed through a collaborative effort by leading genetic toxicologists from academia, government, and industry through the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC). The ultimate goal is to provide quantitative data to model the potential risk levels of substances, which induce genomic damage contributing to human adverse health outcomes. Any good risk assessment begins with asking the appropriate risk management questions in a planning and scoping effort. This step sets up the problem to be addressed (e.g., broadly, does genomic damage need to be addressed, and if so, how to proceed). The next two steps assemble what is known about the problem by building a knowledge base about the substance of concern and developing a rational biological argument for why testing for genomic damage is needed or not. By focusing on the risk management problem and potential genomic damage of concern, the next step of assay(s) selection takes place. The work-up of the problem during the earlier steps provides the insight to which assays would most likely produce the most meaningful data. This discussion does not detail the wide range of genomic damage tests available, but points to types of testing systems that can be very useful. Once the assays are performed and analyzed, the relevant data sets are selected for modeling potential risk. From this point on, the data are evaluated and modeled as they are for any other toxicology endpoint. Any observed genomic damage/effects (or genetic event(s)) can be modeled via a dose-response analysis and determination of an estimated PoD. When a quantitative risk analysis is needed for decision making, a parallel exposure assessment effort is performed (exposure assessment is not detailed here as this is not the focus of this discussion; guidelines for this assessment exist elsewhere). Then the PoD for genomic damage is used with the exposure information to develop risk estimations (e.g., using reference dose (RfD), margin of exposure (MOE) approaches) in a risk characterization and presented to risk managers for informing decision making. This approach is applicable now for incorporating genomic damage results into the decision-making process for assessing potential adverse outcomes in chemically exposed humans and is consistent with the ILSI HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) roadmap. This applies to any substance to which humans are exposed, including pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, food additives, and other chemicals. It is time for regulatory bodies to incorporate the broader knowledge and insights provided by genomic damage results into the assessments of risk to more fully understand the potential of adverse outcomes in chemically exposed humans, thus improving the assessment of risk due to genomic damage. The historical use of genomic damage data as a yes/no gateway for possible cancer risk has been too narrowly focused in risk assessment. The recent advances in assaying for and understanding genomic damage, including eventually epigenetic alterations, obviously add a greater wealth of information for determining potential risk to humans. Regulatory bodies need to embrace this paradigm shift from hazard identification to quantitative analysis and to incorporate the wider range of genomic damage in their assessments of risk to humans. The quantitative analyses and methodologies discussed here can be readily applied to genomic damage testing results now. Indeed, with the passage of the recent update to the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) in the US, the new generation testing strategy for genomic damage described here provides a regulatory agency (here the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but suitable for others) a golden opportunity to reexamine the way it addresses risk-based genomic damage testing (including hazard identification and exposure). Environ. Mol. Mutagen. 58:264-283, 2017. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental and Molecular Mutagenesis Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental and Molecular Mutagenesis Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of Long-Term Hormonal Therapy (vs Short-Term Hormonal Therapy): A Secondary Analysis of Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Treated on NRG Oncology RTOG 9202

PubMed Central

Mirhadi, Amin J.; Zhang, Qiang; Hanks, Gerald E.; Lepor, Herbert; Grignon, David J.; Peters, Christopher A.; Rosenthal, Seth A.; Zeitzer, Kenneth; Radwan, John S.; Lawton, Colleen; Parliament, Matthew B.; Reznik, Robert S.; Sandler, Howard M.

2017-01-01

Purpose NRG Oncology RTOG 9202 was a randomized trial testing long-term adjuvant androgen deprivation (LTAD) versus initial androgen deprivation only (STAD) with external beam radiation therapy (RT) in mostly high-risk and some intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients. RTOG 9408 found an overall survival (OS) advantage in patients with cT1b-T2b disease and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) <20 ng/mL, with benefit observed mostly among intermediate-risk patients. It was still unknown whether intermediate-risk patients would experience an additional survival benefit with LTAD; thus, we performed a secondary analysis to explore whether LTAD had any incremental benefit beyond STAD among the intermediate-risk subset of RTOG 9202. The study endpoints were OS, disease-specific survival (DSS), and PSA failure (PSAF). Methods and Materials An analysis was performed for all patients enrolled in RTOG 9202 defined as intermediate-risk (cT2 disease, PSA<10 ng/mL, and Gleason score = 7 or cT2 disease, PSA 10-20 ng/mL, and Gleason score <7). This review yielded 133 patients: 74 (STAD) and 59 (LTAD). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate OS; the cumulative incidence approach was used to estimate DSS and PSAF. A 2-sided test was used, with significance level defined to be .05. Results With over 11 years of median follow-up, 39 STAD patients were alive and 33 LTAD patients were alive. There was no difference in OS (10-year estimates, 61% STAD vs 65% LTAD; P=.53), DSS (10-year DSS, 96% vs 97%; P=.72), or PSAF (10-year PSAF, 53% vs 55%; P=.99) between groups. Conclusion LTAD did not confer a benefit in terms of OS, DSS, or PSAF rates in the intermediate-risk subset in this study. Whereas the subset was relatively small, treatment assignment was randomly applied, and a trend in favor of LTAD would have been of interest. Given the small number of disease-specific deaths observed and lack of benefit with respect to our endpoints, this secondary analysis does not suggest that exploration of longer hormonal therapy is worth testing in the intermediate-risk prostate cancer subset. PMID:28126300

Validation of HPLC-ESI-MS/MS Protocol to Analyze EtG in Hair for Assessment of Chronic Excessive Alcohol Use in Thailand in Conjunction with AUDIT.

PubMed

Thananchai, Thiwaphorn; Junkuy, Anongphan; Kittirattanapaiboon, Phunnapa; Sribanditmongkol, Pongruk

2016-06-01

Hair analysis for chronic excessive alcohol (ethanol) use has focused on ethyl glucuronide (EtG), a minor metabolite of ethanol. Preferred methods have involved high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) combined with tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) in line with an electrospray ionization (ESI) source. EtG analysis in hair has not yet been introduced to Thailand To validate an in-house HPLC-ESI-MS/MS hair analysis protocol for EtG and to apply it to a field sample of alcohol drinkers to assess different risk levels of alcohol consumption as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Validation procedures followed guidelines of the US Food and Drug Administration, the European Medicines Agency, and the Scientific Working Group for Forensic Toxicology. One hundred twenty subjects reported consuming alcohol during a 3-month period prior to enrollment. After taking the Thai-language version of AUDIT, subjects were divided on the basis of test scores into low, medium, and high-risk groups for chronic excessive alcohol use. The protocol satisfied the international standards for selectivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and calibration curve. There was no significant matrix effect. Limits of detection and quantification (LOD/LOQ) were set at 15 pg of EtG per mg of hair. The protocol was not able to detect EtG in low-risk subjects (n = 38). Detection rates for medium-risk (n = 42) and high-risk subjects (n = 40) were 14.3% and 85%, respectively. The median of EtG concentration between these two groups were significantly different. Sensitivity and specificity were both more than 90% when EtG concentrations of high-risk subjects were compared with the 30 pg/mg cutoff recommended by the Society of Hair Testing (SoHT) for diagnosing chronic excessive alcohol consumption, based on an average ethanol daily intake greater than 60 g. The in-house protocol for EtG analysis in hair was validated according to international standards. The protocol is a useful tool for evaluating risk for chronic excessive drinking as defined by AUDIT scores. It strongly predicted the highest level of risk, although it was inadequate for assessing lower levels of risk.

Exploring HIV risks, testing and prevention among sub-Saharan African community members in Australia.

PubMed

Mullens, Amy B; Kelly, Jennifer; Debattista, Joseph; Phillips, Tania M; Gu, Zhihong; Siggins, Fungisai

2018-05-21

Significant health disparities persist regarding new and late Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) diagnoses among sub-Saharan African (SSA) communities in Australia. Personal/cultural beliefs and practices influence HIV (risk, prevention, testing) within Australia and during visits to home countries. A community forum was conducted involving 23 male and female adult African community workers, members and leaders, and health workers; facilitated by cultural workers and an experienced clinician/researcher. The forum comprised small/large group discussions regarding HIV risk/prevention (responses transcribed verbatim; utilising thematic analysis). Stigma, denial, social norms, tradition and culture permeated perceptions/beliefs regarding HIV testing, prevention and transmission among African Australians, particularly regarding return travel to home countries. International travel as a risk factor for HIV acquisition requires further examination, as does the role of the doctor in HIV testing and Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP). Further assessment of PrEP as an appropriate/feasible intervention is needed, with careful attention regarding negative community perceptions and potential impacts.

Race, Genomics and Chronic Disease: What Patients with African Ancestry Have to Say

PubMed Central

Horowitz, Carol R.; Ferryman, Kadija; Negron, Rennie; Sabin, Tatiana; Rodriguez, Mayra; Zinberg, Randi F.; Böttinger, Erwin; Robinson, Mimsie

2017-01-01

Background Variants of the APOL1 gene increase risk for kidney failure 10- fold, and are nearly exclusively found in people with African ancestry. To translate genomic discoveries into practice, we gathered information about effects and challenges incorporating genetic risk in clinical care. Methods An academic- community- clinical team tested 26 adults with self- reported African ancestry for APOL1 variants, conducting in- depth interviews about patients' beliefs and attitudes toward genetic testing- before, immediately, and 30 days after receiving test results. We used constant comparative analysis of interview transcripts to identify themes. Results Themes included: Knowledge of genetic risk for kidney failure may motivate providers and patients to take hypertension more seriously, rather than inspiring fatalism or anxiety. Having genetic risk for a disease may counter stereotypes of Blacks as non- adherent or low- literate, rather than exacerbate stereotypes. Conclusion Populations most likely to benefit from genomic research can inform strategies for genetic testing and future research. PMID:28238999

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

A multi-dimensional environment-health risk analysis system for the English regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitolo, Claudia; Scutari, Marco; Ghalaieny, Mohamed; Tucker, Allan; Russell, Andrew

2017-04-01

There is an overwhelming body of evidence that environmental pollution, and air pollution in particular, is a significant threat to health worldwide. While in developed countries the introduction of environmental legislation and sustainable technologies aims to mitigate adverse effects, developing countries are at higher risk. Within the scope of the British Council funded KEHRA project, work is on-going to develop a reproducible and reliable system to assess health risks due to exposure to pollution under climate change and across countries. Our approach is based on the use of Bayesian Networks. We used these graphical models to explore and model the statistical dependence structure of the intricate environment-health nexus. We developed a robust modelling workflow in the R programming language to facilitate reproducibility and tested it on the English regions in the United Kingdom. Preliminary results are encouraging, showing that the model tests generally well in sample (training data spans the period 1981-2005) and has good predictive power when tested out of sample (testing data spans the period 2006-2014). We plan to show the results of this preliminary analysis as well as test the model under future climate change scenarios. Future work will also investigate the transferability of the model from a data-rich (England) to a data-poor environment (Kazakhstan).

Commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay versuspolymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do; Castro, Rodolfo; Castro, Liane de

2016-01-01

Chronic Chagas disease diagnosis relies on laboratory tests due to its clinical characteristics. The aim of this research was to review commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test performance. Performance of commercial ELISA or PCR for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease were systematically searched in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web, and LILACS through the bibliography from 1980-2014 and by contact with the manufacturers. The risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. Heterogeneity was estimated with the I2 statistic. Accuracies provided by the manufacturers usually overestimate the accuracy provided by academia. The risk of bias is high in most tests and in most QUADAS dimensions. Heterogeneity is high in either sensitivity, specificity, or both. The evidence regarding commercial ELISA and ELISA-rec sensitivity and specificity indicates that there is overestimation. The current recommendation to use two simultaneous serological tests can be supported by the risk of bias analysis and the amount of heterogeneity but not by the observed accuracies. The usefulness of PCR tests are debatable and health care providers should not order them on a routine basis. PCR may be used in selected cases due to its potential to detect seronegative subjects.

Commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay versus polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

do Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano; Castro, Rodolfo; de Castro, Liane

2016-01-01

Chronic Chagas disease diagnosis relies on laboratory tests due to its clinical characteristics. The aim of this research was to review commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test performance. Performance of commercial ELISA or PCR for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease were systematically searched in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web, and LILACS through the bibliography from 1980-2014 and by contact with the manufacturers. The risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. Heterogeneity was estimated with the I2 statistic. Accuracies provided by the manufacturers usually overestimate the accuracy provided by academia. The risk of bias is high in most tests and in most QUADAS dimensions. Heterogeneity is high in either sensitivity, specificity, or both. The evidence regarding commercial ELISA and ELISA-rec sensitivity and specificity indicates that there is overestimation. The current recommendation to use two simultaneous serological tests can be supported by the risk of bias analysis and the amount of heterogeneity but not by the observed accuracies. The usefulness of PCR tests are debatable and health care providers should not order them on a routine basis. PCR may be used in selected cases due to its potential to detect seronegative subjects. PMID:26814640

Structural Health Monitoring Analysis for the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yap, Keng C.

2010-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews Structural Health Monitoring Analysis for the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge. The Wing Leading Edge Impact Detection System (WLE IDS) and the Impact Analysis Process are also described to monitor WLE debris threats. The contents include: 1) Risk Management via SHM; 2) Hardware Overview; 3) Instrumentation; 4) Sensor Configuration; 5) Debris Hazard Monitoring; 6) Ascent Response Summary; 7) Response Signal; 8) Distribution of Flight Indications; 9) Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA); 10) Model Correlation; 11) Impact Tests; 12) Wing Leading Edge Modeling; 13) Ascent Debris PRA Results; and 14) MM/OD PRA Results.

Active smoking and risk of metabolic syndrome: a meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Sun, Kan; Liu, Jianmin; Ning, Guang

2012-01-01

Epidemiological evidence suggests that smoking has been associated with emergence of metabolic syndrome. However, data on this issue are inconsistent and controversial. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis to examine the association between smoking and metabolic syndrome. We searched the Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library database up to March 2012 to identify prospective cohort studies related to smoking and metabolic syndrome. Reference lists of retrieved articles were also reviewed. Summary effect estimates were derived using a random-effects model and stratified by gender, smoking dose, follow-up duration and geographical area. Primary analysis of 13 studies involving 56,691 participants and 8,688 cases detected a significant positive association between active smoking and risk of metabolic syndrome (pooled relative risk [RR] 1.26, 95% CI: 1.10-1.44). Estimates of effects were substantially consistent in the stratified analyses. In the dose-response analysis, risk of metabolic syndrome was stronger for active male smokers (pooled RR 1.34, 95% CI: 1.20-1.50) than it was for former male smokers (pooled RR 1.19, 95% CI: 1.00-1.42), and greater for heavy smokers (pooled RR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.27-1.59) compared with light smokers (pooled RR 1.10, 95% CI: 0.90-1.35). No evidence of statistical publication bias was found (Egger' s test P=0.227, Begg' s test P=0.113). Active smoking is associated with development of metabolic syndrome. Smoking cessation appears to reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome.

Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus From Organ Donors Despite Nucleic Acid Test Screening.

PubMed

Suryaprasad, A; Basavaraju, S V; Hocevar, S N; Theodoropoulos, N; Zuckerman, R A; Hayden, T; Forbi, J C; Pegues, D; Levine, M; Martin, S I; Kuehnert, M J; Blumberg, E A

2015-07-01

Nucleic acid testing (NAT) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) is recommended for screening of organ donors, yet not all donor infections may be detected. We describe three US clusters of HCV transmission from donors at increased risk for HCV infection. Donor's and recipients' medical records were reviewed. Newly infected recipients were interviewed. Donor-derived HCV infection was considered when infection was newly detected after transplantation in recipients of organs from increased risk donors. Stored donor sera and tissue samples were tested for HCV RNA with high-sensitivity quantitative PCR. Posttransplant and pretransplant recipient sera were tested for HCV RNA. Quasispecies analysis of hypervariable region-1 was used to establish genetic relatedness of recipient HCV variants. Each donor had evidence of injection drug use preceding death. Of 12 recipients, 8 were HCV-infected-6 were newly diagnosed posttransplant. HCV RNA was retrospectively detected in stored samples from donor immunologic tissue collected at organ procurement. Phylogenetic analysis showed two clusters of closely related HCV variants from recipients. These investigations identified the first known HCV transmissions from increased risk organ donors with negative NAT screening, indicating very recent donor infection. Recipient informed consent and posttransplant screening for blood-borne pathogens are essential when considering increased risk donors. © Copyright 2015 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of tests to predict wound healing in diabetic foot.

PubMed

Wang, Zhen; Hasan, Rim; Firwana, Belal; Elraiyah, Tarig; Tsapas, Apostolos; Prokop, Larry; Mills, Joseph L; Murad, Mohammad Hassan

2016-02-01

This systematic review summarized the evidence on noninvasive screening tests for the prediction of wound healing and the risk of amputation in diabetic foot ulcers. We searched MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Scopus from database inception to October 2011. We pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and compared test performance. Thirty-seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Eight tests were used to predict wound healing in this setting, including ankle-brachial index (ABI), ankle peak systolic velocity, transcutaneous oxygen measurement (TcPo2), toe-brachial index, toe systolic blood pressure, microvascular oxygen saturation, skin perfusion pressure, and hyperspectral imaging. For the TcPo2 test, the pooled DOR was 15.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.36-74.45) for wound healing and 4.14 (95% CI, 2.98-5.76) for the risk of amputation. ABI was also predictive but to a lesser degree of the risk of amputations (DOR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.65-5.05) but not of wound healing (DOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.40-2.64). It was not feasible to perform meta-analysis comparing the remaining tests. The overall quality of evidence was limited by the risk of bias and imprecision (wide CIs due to small sample size). Several tests may predict wound healing in the setting of diabetic foot ulcer; however, most of the available evidence evaluates only TcPo2 and ABI. The overall quality of the evidence is low, and further research is needed to provide higher quality comparative effectiveness evidence. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gene variations in sex hormone pathways and the risk of testicular germ cell tumour: a case-parent triad study in a Norwegian-Swedish population.

PubMed

Kristiansen, W; Andreassen, K E; Karlsson, R; Aschim, E L; Bremnes, R M; Dahl, O; Fosså, S D; Klepp, O; Langberg, C W; Solberg, A; Tretli, S; Adami, H-O; Wiklund, F; Grotmol, T; Haugen, T B

2012-05-01

Testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT) is the most common cancer in young men, and an imbalance between the estrogen and androgen levels in utero is hypothesized to influence TGCT risk. Thus, polymorphisms in genes involved in the action of sex hormones may contribute to variability in an individual's susceptibility to TGCT. We conducted a Norwegian-Swedish case-parent study. A total of 105 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 20 sex hormone pathway genes were genotyped using Sequenom MassArray iPLEX Gold, in 831 complete triads and 474 dyads. To increase the statistical power, the analysis was expanded to include 712 case singletons and 3922 Swedish controls, thus including triads, dyads and the case-control samples in a single test for association. Analysis for allelic associations was performed with the UNPHASED program, using a likelihood-based association test for nuclear families with missing data, and odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. False discovery rate (FDR) was used to adjust for multiple testing. Five genetic variants across the ESR2 gene [encoding estrogen receptor beta (ERβ)] were statistically significantly associated with the risk of TGCT. In the case-parent analysis, the markers rs12434245 and rs10137185 were associated with a reduced risk of TGCT (OR = 0.66 and 0.72, respectively; both FDRs <5%), whereas rs2978381 and rs12435857 were associated with an increased risk of TGCT (OR = 1.21 and 1.19, respectively; both FDRs <5%). In the combined case-parent/case-control analysis, rs12435857 and rs10146204 were associated with an increased risk of TGCT (OR = 1.15 and 1.13, respectively; both FDRs <5%), whereas rs10137185 was associated with a reduced risk of TGCT (OR = 0.79, FDR <5%). In addition, we found that three genetic variants in CYP19A1 (encoding aromatase) were statistically significantly associated with the risk of TGCT in the case-parent analysis. The T alleles of the rs2414099, rs8025374 and rs3751592 SNPs were associated with an increased risk of TGCT (OR = 1.30, 1.30 and 1.21, respectively; all FDRs <5%). We found no statistically significant differences in allelic effect estimates between parental inherited genetic variation in the sex hormone pathways and TGCT risk in the offspring, and no evidence of heterogeneity between seminomas and non-seminomas, or between the Norwegian and the Swedish population, in any of the SNPs examined. Our findings provide support for ERβ and aromatase being implicated in the aetiology of TGCT. Exploring the functional role of the TGCT risk-associated SNPs will further elucidate the biological mechanisms involved.

Feasibility of nonselective testing for hemoglobinopathies in early pregnancy in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Judith O; Demirel-Güngör, Gönül; Selles, Anke; Hudig, Cisca; Steen, Gerard; Ponjee, Gabrielle; Holleboom, Cas; Freeman, Liv M; Hendiks, Joris; Wijermans, Pierre; Giordano, Piero C; Kerkhoffs, Jean-Louis

2011-12-01

To examine the feasibility of standardized hemoglobinopathy (HBP) carrier testing for pregnant women in The Netherlands in addition to the standard anemia screening. We assessed the prevalence of HBP in women at the time of the first pregnancy visit using both a prospective cohort (N = 703) and a retrospective series of women selected at random (N = 588). For the purpose of analysis, the population was divided into a high risk and a low risk group for HBP based on maternal ethnicity. Screening for HBP utilized standard screening tests for anemia, with additional high performance liquid chromatography (Variant II); molecular analysis was performed by Gap-polymerase chain reaction (Gap-PCR) and if necessary, direct sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA). Family history was reported or collected from the medical records. β-Globin defects were found in 3.9% of the total population (50/1291). The frequency in the high risk population was 5.6% (37/656), compared with 1.2% (6/501) in the low risk group. In the prospective study we found 30 HBP carriers, leading to testing of 16 partners and identification of two couples at risk. One affected child was born. Mean gestational age at the screening was 11.3 weeks with a standard deviation (SD) of 5.8. We found that the prevalence of HBP carriers is high enough in our population to warrant HBP testing for the entire multiethnic population in early pregnancy at the time of anemia screening. This is feasible as most women had their booking early in their first trimester. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Meta-analysis: Risk of dry mouth with second generation antidepressants.

PubMed

Cappetta, Kiley; Beyer, Chad; Johnson, Jessica A; Bloch, Michael H

2018-06-08

The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantify the risk of dry mouth associated with commonly prescribed antidepressant agents and examine the potential implications of medication class, dose, and pharmacodynamics and dose on risk of treatment-induced dry mouth. A PubMed search was conducted to identify double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy and tolerability of second generation antidepressant medications for adults with depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and OCD. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled risk ratio of treatment-emergent dry mouth with second generation antidepressants compared to placebo. Stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression was utilized to further examine the effects antidepressant agent, class, dosage, indication, and receptor affinity profile on the measured risk of dry mouth. 99 trials involving 20,868 adults. SNRIs (Relative Risk (RR)=2.24, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.95-2.58, z=11.2, p<0.001) were associated with a significantly greater risk of dry mouth (test for subgroup differences χ 2 =7.6, df=1; p=0.006) compared to placebo than SSRIs (RR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.39-1.95, z=5.8, p<0.001). There was a significant difference found in the risk of dry mouth between diagnostic indications within the SNRI class (test for subgroup differences χ 2 =9.63, df=1; p=0.002). Anxiety diagnoses (RR=2.78, 95% CI: 2.29-3.38, z=10.32, p<0.001) were associated with a greater risk of dry mouth compared to depression (RR=1.80, 95% CI: 1.48-2.18, z=5.85, p<0.001). Decreased affinity for Alpha-1 (PE=0.18, 95% CI: 0.07-0.28, z=3.26, p=0.001) and Alpha-2 (PE=0.49, 95% CI: 0.22-0.75, z=3.64, p<0.001) receptors and SERT (PE=0.07, 95% CI: 0.01-0.14, z=2.10, p<0.05) was significantly associated with increased risk of dry mouth. The current meta-analysis suggests that SSRIs, SNRIs, and atypical antidepressants are all associated with varying degrees of increased risk of dry mouth. SNRIs were associated with a significantly greater risk of dry mouth compared to SSRIs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Landing and Population Hazard Analysis for Stardust Entry in Operations and Entry Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tooley, Jeffrey; Desai, Prasun N.; Lynos, Daniel T.; Hirst, Edward A.; Wahl, Tom E.; Wawrzyniak, Georffery G.

2006-01-01

Stardust is a comet sample return mission that successfully returned to Earth on January 15, 2006. Stardust's targeted landing area was the Utah Test and Training Range in the Northwest corner of Utah. Requirements for the risks associated with landing were levied on Stardust by the Utah Test and Training Range and NASA. This paper describes the analysis to verify that these requirements were met and and includes calculation of debris survivability, generation of landing site selection plots, and identification of keep-out zones, as well as appropriate selection of the landing site. Operationally the risk requirements were all met for both of the GOMO-GO polls, so entry was authorized.

Analyzing Test-Taking Behavior: Decision Theory Meets Psychometric Theory.

PubMed

Budescu, David V; Bo, Yuanchao

2015-12-01

We investigate the implications of penalizing incorrect answers to multiple-choice tests, from the perspective of both test-takers and test-makers. To do so, we use a model that combines a well-known item response theory model with prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47:263-91, 1979). Our results reveal that when test-takers are fully informed of the scoring rule, the use of any penalty has detrimental effects for both test-takers (they are always penalized in excess, particularly those who are risk averse and loss averse) and test-makers (the bias of the estimated scores, as well as the variance and skewness of their distribution, increase as a function of the severity of the penalty).

Hereditary breast/ovarian cancer--pitfalls in genetic counseling.

PubMed

Dagan, E; Gershoni-Baruch, R

2001-10-01

Genetic counseling and risk assessment, given to women with a family history of breast/ovarian cancer, are regularly based on pedigree analysis. In the Ashkenazi Jewish population, hereditary breast/ovarian cancer is mainly attributed to three founder mutations, namely, 185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT, in BRCA1/2 genes. The overall frequency of these mutations, in the Jewish Ashkenazi population, is as high as 2.5%. Based on clinical and family history data, the results of BRCA molecular testing, in Ashkenazi individuals at risk, are appropriately anticipated in most cases. Here we report on five families, in which the segregation of BRCA1/2 mutations, in affected and unaffected family members, was unexpected, emphasizing the need to test, for founder mutations, every Ashkenazi individual at risk, irrespective of the genotype of affected family members. Ultimately, risk assessments and recommendations, in Ashkenazi women, should be invariably based on the results of genetic testing.

Using latent class analysis to identify academic and behavioral risk status in elementary students.

PubMed

King, Kathleen R; Lembke, Erica S; Reinke, Wendy M

2016-03-01

Identifying classes of children on the basis of academic and behavior risk may have important implications for the allocation of intervention resources within Response to Intervention (RTI) and Multi-Tiered System of Support (MTSS) models. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted with a sample of 517 third grade students. Fall screening scores in the areas of reading, mathematics, and behavior were used as indicators of success on an end of year statewide achievement test. Results identified 3 subclasses of children, including a class with minimal academic and behavioral concerns (Tier 1; 32% of the sample), a class at-risk for academic problems and somewhat at-risk for behavior problems (Tier 2; 37% of the sample), and a class with significant academic and behavior problems (Tier 3; 31%). Each class was predictive of end of year performance on the statewide achievement test, with the Tier 1 class performing significantly higher on the test than the Tier 2 class, which in turn scored significantly higher than the Tier 3 class. The results of this study indicated that distinct classes of children can be determined through brief screening measures and are predictive of later academic success. Further implications are discussed for prevention and intervention for students at risk for academic failure and behavior problems. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Characterizing Decision-Analysis Performances of Risk Prediction Models Using ADAPT Curves.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung; Wu, Yun-Chun

2016-01-01

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities.Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the "average deviation about the probability threshold" (ADAPT).An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model.Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models.

Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMP) with tailored solutions for each basin, evaluating their flood mitigation potential, promoting environmental objectives and increasing the efficiency of the already adopted measures. The FRMP should focus on prevention (and protection), preparedness and response, and these have been the three main risk management phases of a flood crisis that have been assessed when extracting the lessons learnt from past events. Lessons learnt concerning dissemination through the three previously mentioned phases and also related to education initiatives have also been included. A common response to most of the events described in this paper was to upgrade the meteorological and hydrological forecasting systems, making the forecasting lead-time as large as possible. Another common recommendation from the test-beds was the need to implement and accomplish the land use regulations. All the basins also detected that structural measures are necessary to increase the population's protection level, but replacing the traditional safety mentality by a risk culture based on a comprehensive analysis of the flood risk. The four basins studied have also highlighted the importance of collecting information when FF & DF events occur and creating historic databases that will provide extremely useful information in the future.

Risk/Requirements Trade-off Guidelines for Low Cost Satellite Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Man, Kin F.

1996-01-01

The accelerating trend toward faster, better, cheaper missions places increasing emphasis on the trade-offs between requirements and risk to reduce cost and development times, while still improving quality and reliability. The Risk/Requirement Trade-off Guidelines discussed in this paper are part of an integrated approach to address the main issues by focusing on the sum of prevention, analysis, control, or test (PACT) processes.

Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: Implications for Human Health Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The risk analysis perspective by Daniel Krewski and colleagues lays out the long-term vision and strategic plan developed by a National Research Council committee (1), sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with support from the U.S. National Toxicology Progr...

Association of colorectal cancer susceptibility variants with esophageal cancer in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Geng, Ting-Ting; Xun, Xiao-Jie; Li, Sen; Feng, Tian; Wang, Li-Ping; Jin, Tian-Bo; Hou, Peng

2015-06-14

To investigate the association between colorectal cancer (CRC) genetic susceptibility variants and esophageal cancer in a Chinese Han population. A case-control study was conducted including 360 esophageal cancer patients and 310 healthy controls. Thirty-one single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CRC risk from previous genome-wide association studies were analyzed. SNPs were genotyped using Sequenom Mass-ARRAY technology, and genotypic frequencies in controls were tested for departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium using a Fisher's exact test. The allelic frequencies were compared between cases and controls using a χ(2) test. Associations between the SNPs and the risk of esophageal cancer were tested using various genetic models (codominant, dominant, recessive, overdominant, and additive). ORs and 95%CIs were calculated by unconditional logistic regression with adjustments for age and sex. The minor alleles of rs1321311 and rs4444235 were associated with a 1.53-fold (95%CI: 1.15-2.06; P = 0.004) and 1.28-fold (95%CI: 1.03-1.60; P = 0.028) increased risk of esophageal cancer in the allelic model analysis, respectively. In the genetic model analysis, the C/C genotype of rs3802842 was associated with a reduced risk of esophageal cancer in the codominant model (OR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.31-0.88; P = 0.033) and recessive model (OR = 0.55, 95%CI: 0.34-0.87; P = 0.010). The rs4939827 C/T-T/T genotype was associated with a 0.67-fold (95%CI: 0.46-0.98; P = 0.038) decreased esophageal cancer risk under the dominant model. In addition, rs6687758, rs1321311, and rs4444235 were associated with an increased risk. In particular, the T/T genotype of rs1321311 was associated with an 8.06-fold (95%CI: 1.96-33.07; P = 0.004) increased risk in the codominant model. These results provide evidence that known genetic variants associated with CRC risk confer risk for esophageal cancer, and may bring risk for other digestive system tumors.

Early results of urothelial carcinoma screening in a risk population of coke workers: urothelial carcinoma among coke workers.

PubMed

Giberti, C; Gallo, F; Schenone, M; Genova, A

2010-08-01

To present the protocol and the early results of a urothelial carcinoma (UC) screening analysis performed in a risk population of coke workers. Between June 2006 and October 2008, 171 male workers (mean age 43 years), employed in a Ligurian coke plant (Italiana Coke S.r.l) and exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for a median period of 16 years, underwent screening for UC. Urological evaluation included medical history, physical examination, routine laboratory tests, urine analysis, urinary cytology and uCyt+ assay. In the event of signs and symptoms suggestive of UC or positive urinary tests, the workers were also subjected to urinary ultrasonography and cystoscopy with biopsy of any suspicious lesions. Regarding the laboratory tests, 19/171 (11%) uCyt+ samples were considered inadequate and were excluded from the outcomes assessment. Overall, urine analysis, cytology and uCyt+ were positive in 18/152 (12%) subjects who showed no evidence of UC at the scheduled check-ups. No significant association was identified between marker positivity and occupational activity. Our results fail to show an increased risk of UC among the coke workers evaluated. However, they will need to be confirmed in the future by a larger enrollment and a longer follow-up in order to assess the definitive risk for UC after exposure to coke. Copyright © 2010 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ADAMTS13 test and/or PLASMIC clinical score in management of acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura: a cost-effective analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Chong H; Simmons, Sierra C; Williams, Lance A; Staley, Elizabeth M; Zheng, X Long; Pham, Huy P

2017-11-01

The ADAMTS13 test distinguishes thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) from other thrombotic microangiopathies (TMAs). The PLASMIC score helps determine the pretest probability of ADAMTS13 deficiency. Due to inherent limitations of both tests, and potential adverse effects and cost of unnecessary treatments, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) investigating the benefits of incorporating an in-hospital ADAMTS13 test and/or PLASMIC score into our clinical practice. A CEA model was created to compare four scenarios for patients with TMAs, utilizing either an in-house or a send-out ADAMTS13 assay with or without prior risk stratification using PLASMIC scoring. Model variables, including probabilities and costs, were gathered from the medical literature, except for the ADAMTS13 send-out and in-house tests, which were obtained from our institutional data. If only the cost is considered, in-house ADAMTS13 test for patients with intermediate- to high-risk PLASMIC score is the least expensive option ($4,732/patient). If effectiveness is assessed as measured by the number of averted deaths, send-out ADAMTS13 test is the most effective. Considering the cost/effectiveness ratio, the in-house ADAMTS13 test in patients with intermediate- to high-risk PLASMIC score is the best option, followed by the in-house ADAMTS13 test without the PLASMIC score. In patients with clinical presentations of TMAs, having an in-hospital ADAMTS13 test to promptly establish the diagnosis of TTP appears to be cost-effective. Utilizing the PLASMIC score further increases the cost-effectiveness of the in-house ADAMTS13 test. Our findings indicate the benefit of having a rapid and reliable in-house ADAMTS13 test, especially in the tertiary medical center. © 2017 AABB.

Analysis of Hypodermic Needles and Syringes for the Presence of Blood and Polydimethylsiloxane (Silicone) Utilizing Microchemical Tests and Infrared Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Crowe, John B; Lanzarotta, Adam; Witkowski, Mark R; Andria, Sara E

2015-07-01

Suspect hypodermic needles and syringes were seized from an unlicensed individual who was allegedly injecting patients with silicone (polydimethylsiloxane [PDMS]) for cosmetic enhancement. Since control syringe barrels and needles often contain an interfering PDMS lubricant, a risk for false positives of foreign PDMS exists. The focus of this report was to minimize this risk and determine a quick and reliable test for the presence of blood in PDMS matrices. Using ATR-FT-IR spectroscopy, the risk for false-positive identification of foreign PDMS was reduced by (i) overfilling the sampling aperture to prevent spectral distortions and (ii) sampling a region of the suspect syringe/needle assembly where manufacturer-applied PDMS is not typically located. Analysis for blood indicated that the Teichman microchemical test was effective for detecting blood in the presence of PDMS. Overall, detecting PDMS established intent and detecting blood established that the needle containing the PDMS had been used for injection. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

When does mass screening for open neural tube defects in low-risk pregnancies result in cost savings?

PubMed Central

Tosi, L L; Detsky, A S; Roye, D P; Morden, M L

1987-01-01

Using a decision analysis model, we estimated the savings that might be derived from a mass prenatal screening program aimed at detecting open neural tube defects (NTDs) in low-risk pregnancies. Our baseline analysis showed that screening v. no screening could be expected to save approximately $8 per pregnancy given a cost of $7.50 for the maternal serum alpha-feto-protein (MSAFP) test and a cost of $42,507 for hospital and rehabilitation services for the first 10 years of life for a child with spina bifida. When a more liberal estimate of the costs of caring for such a child was used, the savings with the screening program were more substantial. We performed extensive sensitivity analyses, which showed that the savings were somewhat sensitive to the cost of the MSAFP test and highly sensitive to the specificity (but not the sensitivity) of the test. A screening program for NTDs in low-risk pregnancies may result in substantial savings in direct health care costs if the screening protocol is followed rigorously and efficiently. PMID:2433011

Effect of vitamin B supplementation on cancer incidence, death due to cancer, and total mortality: A PRISMA-compliant cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Sui-Liang; Chen, Ting-Song; Ma, Chen-Yun; Meng, Yong-Bin; Zhang, Yu-Fei; Chen, Yi-Wei; Zhou, Yu-Hao

2016-08-01

Observational studies have suggested that vitamin B supplementation is associated with cancer risk, but this association remains controversial. A pooled data-based meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the effects of vitamin B supplementation on cancer incidence, death due to cancer, and total mortality. PubMed, EmBase, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched to identify trials to fit our analysis through August 2015. Relative risk (RR) was used to measure the effect of vitamin B supplementation on the risk of cancer incidence, death due to cancer, and total mortality using a random-effect model. Cumulative meta-analysis, sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, heterogeneity tests, and tests for publication bias were also conducted. Eighteen RCTs reporting the data on 74,498 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. Sixteen of these trials included 4103 cases of cancer; in 6 trials, 731 cancer-related deaths occurred; and in 15 trials, 7046 deaths occurred. Vitamin B supplementation had little or no effect on the incidence of cancer (RR: 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.10; P = 0.216), death due to cancer (RR, 1.05; 95% CI: 0.90-1.22; P = 0.521), and total mortality (RR, 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94-1.06; P = 0.952). Upon performing a cumulative meta-analysis for cancer incidence, death due to cancer, and total mortality, the nonsignificance of the effect of vitamin B persisted. With respect to specific types of cancer, vitamin B supplementation significantly reduced the risk of skin melanoma (RR, 0.47; 95% CI: 0.23-0.94; P = 0.032). Vitamin B supplementation does not have an effect on cancer incidence, death due to cancer, or total mortality. It is associated with a lower risk of skin melanoma, but has no effect on other cancers.

Cardiovascular Genetic Risk Testing for Targeting Statin Therapy in the Primary Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Jarmul, Jamie; Pletcher, Mark J; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Wheeler, Stephanie B; Weinberger, Morris; Avery, Christy L; Jonas, Daniel E; Earnshaw, Stephanie; Pignone, Michael

2018-04-01

It is unclear whether testing for novel risk factors, such as a cardiovascular genetic risk score (cGRS), improves clinical decision making or health outcomes when used for targeting statin initiation in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Our objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of cGRS testing to inform clinical decision making about statin initiation in individuals with low-to-intermediate (2.5%-7.5%) 10-year predicted risk of ASCVD. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of testing for a 27-single-nucleotide polymorphism cGRS comparing 4 test/treat strategies: treat all, treat none, test/treat if cGRS is high, and test/treat if cGRS is intermediate or high. We tested a set of clinical scenarios of men and women, aged 45 to 65 years, with 10-year ASCVD risks between 2.5% and 7.5%. Our primary outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Under base case assumptions for statin disutility and cost, the preferred strategy is to treat all patients with ASCVD risk >2.5% without cGRS testing. For certain clinical scenarios, such as a 57-year-old man with a 10-year ASCVD risk of 7.5%, cGRS testing can be cost-effective under a limited set of assumptions; for example, when statins cost $15 per month and statin disutility is 0.013 (ie, willing to trade 3 months of life in perfect health to avoid 20 years of statin therapy), the preferred strategy (using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained) is to test and treat if cGRS is intermediate or high. Overall, the results were not sensitive to assumptions about statin efficacy and harms. Testing for a 27-single-nucleotide polymorphism cGRS is generally not a cost-effective approach for targeting statin therapy in the primary prevention of ASCVD for low- to intermediate-risk patients. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Cost-effectiveness of population based BRCA testing with varying Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Patel, Shreeya; Antoniou, Antonis C; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat; Turnbull, Clare; Evans, D Gareth; Hopper, John L; Macinnis, Robert J; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Legood, Rosa

2017-11-01

Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing has been found to be cost-effective compared with family history-based testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women were >30 years old with 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. However, individuals may have 1, 2, or 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents, and cost-effectiveness data are lacking at these lower BRCA prevalence estimates. We present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of population BRCA1/BRCA2 testing for women with 1, 2, and 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. Decision analysis model. Lifetime costs and effects of population and family history-based testing were compared with the use of a decision analysis model. 56% BRCA carriers are missed by family history criteria alone. Analyses were conducted for United Kingdom and United States populations. Model parameters were obtained from the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial and published literature. Model parameters and BRCA population prevalence for individuals with 3, 2, or 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent were adjusted for the relative frequency of BRCA mutations in the Ashkenazi-Jewish and general populations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for all Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios. Costs, along with outcomes, were discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon of the analysis is "life-time," and perspective is "payer." Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated model uncertainty. Population testing for BRCA mutations is cost-saving in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (22-33 days life-gained) in the United Kingdom and 1, 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (12-26 days life-gained) in the United States populations, respectively. It is also extremely cost-effective in women in the United Kingdom with just 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £863 per quality-adjusted life-years and 15 days life gained. Results show that population-testing remains cost-effective at the £20,000-30000 per quality-adjusted life-years and $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-years willingness-to-pay thresholds for all 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios, with ≥95% simulations found to be cost-effective on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population-testing remains cost-effective in the absence of reduction in breast cancer risk from oophorectomy and at lower risk-reducing mastectomy (13%) or risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (20%) rates. Population testing for BRCA mutations with varying levels of Ashkenazi-Jewish ancestry is cost-effective in the United Kingdom and the United States. These results support population testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 1-4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent ancestry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic disease risk factors among hotel workers

PubMed Central

Gawde, Nilesh Chandrakant; Kurlikar, Prashika R.

2016-01-01

Context: Non-communicable diseases have emerged as a global health issue. Role of occupation in pathogenesis of non-communicable diseases has not been explored much especially in the hospitality industry. Aims: Objectives of this study include finding risk factor prevalence among hotel workers and studying relationship between occupational group and chronic disease risk factors chiefly high body mass index. Settings and Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted among non-managerial employees from classified hotels in India. Materials and Methods: The study participants self-administered pre-designed pilot-tested questionnaires. Statistical analysis used: The risk factor prevalence rates were expressed as percentages. Chi-square test was used for bi-variate analysis. Overweight was chosen as ‘outcome’ variable of interest and binary multi-logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants. Results: The prevalence rates of tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate physical activity and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 32%, 49%, 24% and 92% respectively among hotel employees. Tobacco use was significantly common among those in food preparation and service, alcohol use among those in food service and security and leisure time physical activity among front office workers. More than two-fifths (42.7%) were overweight. Among the hotel workers, those employed in food preparation and security had higher odds of 1.650 (CI: 1.025 – 2.655) and 3.245 (CI: 1.296 – 8.129) respectively of being overweight. Conclusions: Prevalence of chronic disease risk factors is high among hotel workers. Risk of overweight is significantly high in food preparation and security departments and workplace interventions are necessary to address these risks PMID:27390474

Diabetes and risk of anastomotic leakage after gastrointestinal surgery.

PubMed

Lin, Xiaoti; Li, Jingjing; Chen, Weiyu; Wei, Fengqin; Ying, Mingang; Wei, Weidong; Xie, Xiaoming

2015-06-15

Anastomotic leakage (AL) is one of the most common and lethal complications in gastrointestinal surgery. However, the relationship between AL risk and diabetes mellitus (DM) remains ambiguous. This meta-analysis was to evaluate the association between DM and AL risk in patients after gastrointestinal resection. Odds ratios (OR) estimate with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were combined and weighted to produce pooled OR using the fixed-effects model. Relative risks were calculated in subgroup analysis of prospective studies. We calculated publication bias by Begg rank correlation test and Egger linear regression test. DM was significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of AL morbidity in colorectal patients, 1.661 times in total patients (95% CIs = 1.266-2.178), 1.995 times in a subgroup of case-control studies, 1.581 times in cohort investigations, 1.688 times in retrospective trials, and 1.562 times in prospective designs. After adjusting for the factor of obesity and/or body mass index in the subgroup analyses of colorectal surgery, DM patients without obesity experienced a significantly increased risk of AL (OR = 1.572, 95% CIs = 1.112-2.222). Furthermore, when obesity had not been adjusted, DM patients endured a dramatical increase of AL incidence (OR = 1.812, 95% CIs = 1.171-2.804). Perforation incidence after gastric resection showed borderline association with DM (OR = 2.170, 95% CIs = 0.956-4.926). The present meta-analysis provides strong evidence for the first time that DM is significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of AL mortality in colorectal surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of acetaminophen and risk of endometrial cancer: evidence from observational studies.

PubMed

Ding, Yuan-Yuan; Yao, Peng; Verma, Surya; Han, Zhen-Kai; Hong, Tao; Zhu, Yong-Qiang; Li, Hong-Xi

2017-05-23

Previous meta-analyses suggested that aspirin was associated with reduced risk of endometrial cancer. However, there has been no study comprehensively summarize the evidence of acetaminophen use and risk of endometrial cancer from observational studies. We systematically searched electronic databases (PubMed , EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library) for relevant cohort or case-control studies up to February 28, 2017. Two independent authors performed the eligibility evaluation and data extraction. All differences were resolved by discussion. A random-effects model was applied to estimate summary relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs. All statistical tests were two-sided. Seven observational studies including four prospective cohort studies and three case-control studies with 3874 endometrial cancer cases were included for final analysis. Compared with never use acetaminophen, ever use this drug was not associated with risk of endometrial cancer (summarized RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.93-1.13, I2 = 0%). Similar null association was also observed when compared the highest category of frequency/duration with never use acetaminophen (summarized RR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.70-1.11, I2 = 15.2%). Additionally, the finding was robust in the subgroup analyses stratified by study characteristics and adjustment for potential confounders and risk factors. There was no evidence of publication bias by a visual inspection of a funnel plot and formal statistical tests. In summary, the present meta-analysis reveals no association between acetaminophen use and risk of endometrial cancer. More large scale prospective cohort studies are warranted to confirm our findings and carry out the dose-response analysis of aforementioned association.

Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

PubMed

Barlett, Christopher P

2015-06-01

The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robotic Lunar Lander Development Project Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, Monica; Bassler, Julie; Morse, Brian

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the status of the development of a robotic lunar lander. The goal of the project is to perform engineering tests and risk reduction activities to support the development of a small lunar lander for lunar surface science. This includes: (1) risk reduction for the flight of the robotic lander, (i.e., testing and analyzing various phase of the project); (2) the incremental development for the design of the robotic lander, which is to demonstrate autonomous, controlled descent and landing on airless bodies, and design of thruster configuration for 1/6th of the gravity of earth; (3) cold gas test article in flight demonstration testing; (4) warm gas testing of the robotic lander design; (5) develop and test landing algorithms; (6) validate the algorithms through analysis and test; and (7) tests of the flight propulsion system.

Systematic analysis of microarray datasets to identify Parkinson's disease‑associated pathways and genes.

PubMed

Feng, Yinling; Wang, Xuefeng

2017-03-01

In order to investigate commonly disturbed genes and pathways in various brain regions of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), microarray datasets from previous studies were collected and systematically analyzed. Different normalization methods were applied to microarray datasets from different platforms. A strategy combining gene co‑expression networks and clinical information was adopted, using weighted gene co‑expression network analysis (WGCNA) to screen for commonly disturbed genes in different brain regions of patients with PD. Functional enrichment analysis of commonly disturbed genes was performed using the Database for Annotation, Visualization, and Integrated Discovery (DAVID). Co‑pathway relationships were identified with Pearson's correlation coefficient tests and a hypergeometric distribution‑based test. Common genes in pathway pairs were selected out and regarded as risk genes. A total of 17 microarray datasets from 7 platforms were retained for further analysis. Five gene coexpression modules were identified, containing 9,745, 736, 233, 101 and 93 genes, respectively. One module was significantly correlated with PD samples and thus the 736 genes it contained were considered to be candidate PD‑associated genes. Functional enrichment analysis demonstrated that these genes were implicated in oxidative phosphorylation and PD. A total of 44 pathway pairs and 52 risk genes were revealed, and a risk gene pathway relationship network was constructed. Eight modules were identified and were revealed to be associated with PD, cancers and metabolism. A number of disturbed pathways and risk genes were unveiled in PD, and these findings may help advance understanding of PD pathogenesis.

Disease Risk Analysis and Post-Release Health Surveillance for a Reintroduction Programme: the Pool Frog Pelophylax lessonae.

PubMed

Sainsbury, A W; Yu-Mei, R; Ågren, E; Vaughan-Higgins, R J; Mcgill, I S; Molenaar, F; Peniche, G; Foster, J

2017-10-01

There are risks from disease in undertaking wild animal reintroduction programmes. Methods of disease risk analysis have been advocated to assess and mitigate these risks, and post-release health and disease surveillance can be used to assess the effectiveness of the disease risk analysis, but results for a reintroduction programme have not to date been recorded. We carried out a disease risk analysis for the reintroduction of pool frogs (Pelophylax lessonae) to England, using information gained from the literature and from diagnostic testing of Swedish pool frogs and native amphibians. Ranavirus and Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis were considered high-risk disease threats for pool frogs at the destination site. Quarantine was used to manage risks from disease due to these two agents at the reintroduction site: the quarantine barrier surrounded the reintroduced pool frogs. Post-release health surveillance was carried out through regular health examinations of amphibians in the field at the reintroduction site and collection and examination of dead amphibians. No significant health or disease problems were detected, but the detection rate of dead amphibians was very low. Methods to detect a higher proportion of dead reintroduced animals and closely related species are required to better assess the effects of reintroduction on health and disease. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Medical-device risk management and public safety: using cost-benefit as a measurement of effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Allen A.

1994-12-01

Public safety can be enhanced through the development of a comprehensive medical device risk management. This can be accomplished through case studies using a framework that incorporates cost-benefit analysis in the evaluation of risk management attributes. This paper presents a framework for evaluating the risk management system for regulatory Class III medical devices. The framework consists of the following sixteen attributes of a comprehensive medical device risk management system: fault/failure analysis, premarket testing/clinical trials, post-approval studies, manufacturer sponsored hospital studies, product labeling, establishment inspections, problem reporting program, mandatory hospital reporting, medical literature surveillance, device/patient registries, device performance monitoring, returned product analysis, autopsy program, emergency treatment funds/interim compensation, product liability, and alternative compensation mechanisms. Review of performance histories for several medical devices can reveal the value of information for many attributes, and also the inter-dependencies of the attributes in generating risk information flow. Such an information flow network is presented as a starting point for enhancing medical device risk management by focusing on attributes with high net benefit values and potential to spur information dissemination.

Displacement Damage Effects in Solar Cells: Mining Damage From the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed Space Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardage, Donna (Technical Monitor); Walters, R. J.; Morton, T. L.; Messenger, S. R.

2004-01-01

The objective is to develop an improved space solar cell radiation response analysis capability and to produce a computer modeling tool which implements the analysis. This was accomplished through analysis of solar cell flight data taken on the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed experiment. This effort specifically addresses issues related to rapid technological change in the area of solar cells for space applications in order to enhance system performance, decrease risk, and reduce cost for future missions.

Human Factors Process Task Analysis: Liquid Oxygen Pump Acceptance Test Procedure at the Advanced Technology Development Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diorio, Kimberly A.; Voska, Ned (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides information on Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (HF PFMEA). HF PFMEA includes the following 10 steps: Describe mission; Define System; Identify human-machine; List human actions; Identify potential errors; Identify factors that effect error; Determine likelihood of error; Determine potential effects of errors; Evaluate risk; Generate solutions (manage error). The presentation also describes how this analysis was applied to a liquid oxygen pump acceptance test.

Periodontal Disease and Incident Lung Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Zeng, Xian-Tao; Xia, Ling-Yun; Zhang, Yong-Gang; Li, Sheng; Leng, Wei-Dong; Kwong, Joey S W

2016-10-01

Periodontal disease is linked to a number of systemic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus. Recent evidence has suggested periodontal disease might be associated with lung cancer. However, their precise relationship is yet to be explored. Hence, this study aims to investigate the association of periodontal disease and risk of incident lung cancer using a meta-analytic approach. PubMed, Scopus, and ScienceDirect were searched up to June 10, 2015. Cohort and nested case-control studies investigating risk of lung cancer in patients with periodontal disease were included. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated, as were their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a fixed-effect inverse-variance model. Statistical heterogeneity was explored using the Q test as well as the I(2) statistic. Publication bias was assessed by visual inspection of funnel plots symmetry and Egger's test. Five cohort studies were included, involving 321,420 participants in this meta-analysis. Summary estimates based on adjusted data showed that periodontal disease was associated with a significant risk of lung cancer (HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.36; I(2) = 30%). No publication bias was detected. Subgroup analysis indicated that the association of periodontal disease and lung cancer remained significant in the female population. Evidence from cohort studies suggests that patients with periodontal disease are at increased risk of developing lung cancer.

The effectiveness of risk communication regarding drug safety information: a nationwide survey by the Japanese public health insurance claims data.

PubMed

Hagiwara, Hiromi; Nakano, Shun; Ogawa, Yoshihiro; Tohkin, Masahiro

2015-06-01

We evaluated the effectiveness of warning letters published by the pharmaceutical regulatory agency in Japan on communication of drug safety and risk by quantitative analysis of the national health insurance claims database (NHICD). We then explored what factors may have affected risk communication. We measured the implementation rate of the hepatitis virus-monitoring test among methotrexate (MTX)-treated patients; a warning letter had been issued regarding the use of MTX, as it apparently activates the hepatitis virus. Data from the NHICD, which include 99·3% of Japanese residents, were used. A total of 4,933,481 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (January-June, 2010) were the focus of this study. The implementation rate of the hepatitis virus-monitoring test increased from 1·4% before to 1·8% after the warning letter announcement. Logistic regression analysis suggested that the installation of a drug information management room is one of the important factors affecting risk communication. Further analysis revealed that the hepatitis virus monitoring rates in hospitals without drug information management rooms increased from 2·3% to 4·1% due to the issue of the warning letter. The warning letter from the regulatory agency plays an important role in risk communication in hospitals without drug information management rooms. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using cognitive pre-testing methods in the development of a new evidenced-based pressure ulcer risk assessment instrument.

PubMed

Coleman, S; Nixon, J; Keen, J; Muir, D; Wilson, L; McGinnis, E; Stubbs, N; Dealey, C; Nelson, E A

2016-11-16

Variation in development methods of Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments has led to inconsistent inclusion of risk factors and concerns about content validity. A new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Instrument, the Pressure Ulcer Risk Primary Or Secondary Evaluation Tool - PURPOSE-T was developed as part of a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) funded Pressure Ulcer Research Programme (PURPOSE: RP-PG-0407-10056). This paper reports the pre-test phase to assess and improve PURPOSE-T acceptability, usability and confirm content validity. A descriptive study incorporating cognitive pre-testing methods and integration of service user views was undertaken over 3 cycles comprising PURPOSE-T training, a focus group and one-to-one think-aloud interviews. Clinical nurses from 2 acute and 2 community NHS Trusts, were grouped according to job role. Focus group participants used 3 vignettes to complete PURPOSE-T assessments and then participated in the focus group. Think-aloud participants were interviewed during their completion of PURPOSE-T. After each pre-test cycle analysis was undertaken and adjustment/improvements made to PURPOSE-T in an iterative process. This incorporated the use of descriptive statistics for data completeness and decision rule compliance and directed content analysis for interview and focus group data. Data were collected April 2012-June 2012. Thirty-four nurses participated in 3 pre-test cycles. Data from 3 focus groups, 12 think-aloud interviews incorporating 101 PURPOSE-T assessments led to changes to improve instrument content and design, flow and format, decision support and item-specific wording. Acceptability and usability were demonstrated by improved data completion and appropriate risk pathway allocation. The pre-test also confirmed content validity with clinical nurses. The pre-test was an important step in the development of the preliminary PURPOSE-T and the methods used may have wider instrument development application. PURPOSE-T proposes a new approach to pressure ulcer risk assessment, incorporating a screening stage, the inclusion of skin status to distinguish between those who require primary prevention and those who require secondary prevention/treatment and the use of colour to support pathway allocation and decision making. Further clinical evaluation is planned to assess the reliability and validity of PURPOSE-T and it's impact on care processes and patient outcomes.

Why Breast Cancer Risk by the Numbers Is Not Enough: Evaluation of a Decision Aid in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Numerate Women

PubMed Central

Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham; Aguirre, Alejandra; Smalletz, Cindy; David, Raven; Crew, Katherine

2015-01-01

Background Breast cancer risk assessment including genetic testing can be used to classify people into different risk groups with screening and preventive interventions tailored to the needs of each group, yet the implementation of risk-stratified breast cancer prevention in primary care settings is complex. Objective To address barriers to breast cancer risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention strategies in primary care settings, we developed a Web-based decision aid, RealRisks, that aims to improve preference-based decision-making for breast cancer prevention, particularly in low-numerate women. Methods RealRisks incorporates experience-based dynamic interfaces to communicate risk aimed at reducing inaccurate risk perceptions, with modules on breast cancer risk, genetic testing, and chemoprevention that are tailored. To begin, participants learn about risk by interacting with two games of experience-based risk interfaces, demonstrating average 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. We conducted four focus groups in English-speaking women (age ≥18 years), a questionnaire completed before and after interacting with the decision aid, and a semistructured group discussion. We employed a mixed-methods approach to assess accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk and acceptability of RealRisks. The qualitative analysis of the semistructured discussions assessed understanding of risk, risk models, and risk appropriate prevention strategies. Results Among 34 participants, mean age was 53.4 years, 62% (21/34) were Hispanic, and 41% (14/34) demonstrated low numeracy. According to the Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool (BCRAT), the mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk were 1.11% (SD 0.77) and 7.46% (SD 2.87), respectively. After interacting with RealRisks, the difference in perceived and estimated breast cancer risk according to BCRAT improved for 5-year risk (P=.008). In the qualitative analysis, we identified potential barriers to adopting risk-appropriate breast cancer prevention strategies, including uncertainty about breast cancer risk and risk models, distrust toward the health care system, and perception that risk assessment to pre-screen women for eligibility for genetic testing may be viewed as rationing access to care. Conclusions In a multi-ethnic population, we demonstrated a significant improvement in accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk after exposure to RealRisks. However, we identified potential barriers that suggest that accurate risk perceptions will not suffice as the sole basis to support informed decision making and the acceptance of risk-appropriate prevention strategies. Findings will inform the iterative design of the RealRisks decision aid. PMID:26175193

Some applications of categorical data analysis to epidemiological studies.

PubMed Central

Grizzle, J E; Koch, G G

1979-01-01

Several examples of categorized data from epidemiological studies are analyzed to illustrate that more informative analysis than tests of independence can be performed by fitting models. All of the analyses fit into a unified conceptual framework that can be performed by weighted least squares. The methods presented show how to calculate point estimate of parameters, asymptotic variances, and asymptotically valid chi 2 tests. The examples presented are analysis of relative risks estimated from several 2 x 2 tables, analysis of selected features of life tables, construction of synthetic life tables from cross-sectional studies, and analysis of dose-response curves. PMID:540590

Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems.

PubMed

DiMase, Daniel; Collier, Zachary A; Carlson, Jinae; Gray, Robin B; Linkov, Igor

2016-10-01

Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk-based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk-informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high-risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Risk Stratification Model for Lung Cancer Based on Gene Coexpression Network and Deep Learning

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Risk stratification model for lung cancer with gene expression profile is of great interest. Instead of previous models based on individual prognostic genes, we aimed to develop a novel system-level risk stratification model for lung adenocarcinoma based on gene coexpression network. Using multiple microarray, gene coexpression network analysis was performed to identify survival-related networks. A deep learning based risk stratification model was constructed with representative genes of these networks. The model was validated in two test sets. Survival analysis was performed using the output of the model to evaluate whether it could predict patients' survival independent of clinicopathological variables. Five networks were significantly associated with patients' survival. Considering prognostic significance and representativeness, genes of the two survival-related networks were selected for input of the model. The output of the model was significantly associated with patients' survival in two test sets and training set (p < 0.00001, p < 0.0001 and p = 0.02 for training and test sets 1 and 2, resp.). In multivariate analyses, the model was associated with patients' prognosis independent of other clinicopathological features. Our study presents a new perspective on incorporating gene coexpression networks into the gene expression signature and clinical application of deep learning in genomic data science for prognosis prediction. PMID:29581968

How can sensitivity analysis improve the robustness of mathematical models utilized by the re/insurance industry?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noacco, V.; Wagener, T.; Pianosi, F.; Philp, T.

2017-12-01

Insurance companies provide insurance against a wide range of threats, such as natural catastrophes, nuclear incidents and terrorism. To quantify risk and support investment decisions, mathematical models are used, for example to set the premiums charged to clients that protect from financial loss, should deleterious events occur. While these models are essential tools for adequately assessing the risk attached to an insurer's portfolio, their development is costly and their value for decision-making may be limited by an incomplete understanding of uncertainty and sensitivity. Aside from the business need to understand risk and uncertainty, the insurance sector also faces regulation which requires them to test their models in such a way that uncertainties are appropriately captured and that plans are in place to assess the risks and their mitigation. The building and testing of models constitutes a high cost for insurance companies, and it is a time intensive activity. This study uses an established global sensitivity analysis toolbox (SAFE) to more efficiently capture the uncertainties and sensitivities embedded in models used by a leading re/insurance firm, with structured approaches to validate these models and test the impact of assumptions on the model predictions. It is hoped that this in turn will lead to better-informed and more robust business decisions.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Assessing the Public Health Impact and Effectiveness of Interventions To Prevent Salmonella Contamination of Sprouts.

PubMed

Ding, Hongliu; Fu, Tong-Jen

2016-01-01

Sprouts have been a recurring public health challenge due to microbiological contamination, and Salmonella has been the major cause of sprout-associated outbreaks. Although seed treatment and microbiological testing have been applied as risk reduction measures during sprout production, the extent to which their effectiveness in reducing the public health risks associated with sprouts has not been well investigated. We conducted a quantitative risk assessment to measure the risk posed by Salmonella contamination in sprouts and to determine whether and how mitigation strategies can achieve a satisfactory risk reduction based on the assumption that the risk reduction achieved by a microbiological sampling and testing program at a given sensitivity is equivalent to that achieved by direct inactivation of pathogens. Our results indicated that if the sprouts were produced without any risk interventions, the health impact caused by sprouts contaminated with Salmonella would be very high, with a median annual estimated loss of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 691,412. Seed treatment (with 20,000 ppm of calcium hypochlorite) or microbiological sampling and testing of spent irrigation water (SIW) alone could reduce the median annual impact to 734 or 4,856 DALYs, respectively. Combining seed treatment with testing of the SIW would further decrease the risk to 58 DALYs. This number could be dramatically lowered to 3.99 DALYs if sprouts were produced under conditions that included treating seeds with 20,000 ppm of calcium hypochlorite plus microbiological testing of seeds, SIW, and finished products. Our analysis shows that the public health impact due to Salmonella contamination in sprouts could be controlled if seeds are treated to reduce pathogens and microbiological sampling and testing is implemented. Future advances in intervention strategies would be important to improve sprout safety further.

Thr105Ile (rs11558538) polymorphism in the histamine N-methyltransferase (HNMT) gene and risk for Parkinson disease

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Jiménez, Félix Javier; Alonso-Navarro, Hortensia; García-Martín, Elena; Agúndez, José A.G.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background/aims: Several neuropathological, biochemical, and pharmacological data suggested a possible role of histamine in the etiopathogenesis of Parkinson disease (PD). The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs11558538 in the histamine N-methyltransferase (HNMT) gene has been associated with the risk of developing PD by several studies but not by some others. We carried out a systematic review that included all the studies published on PD risk related to the rs11558538 SNP, and we conducted a meta-analysis following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Methods: We used several databases to perform the systematic review, the software Meta-DiSc 1.1.1 to perform the meta-analysis of the eligible studies, and the Q-statistic to test heterogeneity between studies. Results: The meta-analysis included 4 eligible case–control association studies for the HNMT rs11558538 SNP and the risk for PD (2108 patients, 2158 controls). The frequency of the minor allele positivity showed a statistically significant association with a decreased risk for PD, both in the total series and in Caucasians. Although homozygosity for the minor allele did not reach statistical significance, the test for trend indicates the occurrence of a gene–dose effect. Global diagnostic odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for rs11558538T were 0.61 (0.46–0.81) for the total group, and 0.63 (0.45–0.88) for Caucasian patients. Conclusion: The present meta-analysis confirms published evidence suggesting that the HNMT rs11558538 minor allele is related to a reduced risk of developing PD. PMID:27399132

Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

2016-01-01

Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

Higher Caffeinated Coffee Intake Is Associated with Reduced Malignant Melanoma Risk: A Meta-Analysis Study

PubMed Central

Liu, Jibin; Shen, Biao; Shi, Minxin; Cai, Jing

2016-01-01

Background Several epidemiological studies have determined the associations between coffee intake level and skin cancer risk; however, the results were not yet conclusive. Herein, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the cohort and case-control studies for the association between coffee intake level and malignant melanoma (MM) risk. Methods Studies were identified through searching the PubMed and MEDLINE databases (to November, 2015). Study-specific risk estimates were pooled under the random-effects model. Results Two case-control studies (846 MM patients and 843 controls) and five cohort studies (including 844,246 participants and 5,737 MM cases) were identified. For caffeinated coffee, the pooled relative risk (RR) of MM was 0.81 [95% confidential interval (95% CI) = 0.68–0.97; P-value for Q-test = 0.003; I2 = 63.5%] for those with highest versus lowest quantity of intake. In the dose-response analysis, the RR of MM was 0.955 (95% CI = 0.912–0.999) for per 1 cup/day increment of caffeinated coffee consumption and linearity dose-response association was found (P-value for nonlinearity = 0.326). Strikingly, no significant association was found between the decaffeinated coffee intake level and MM risk (pooled RR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.81–1.05; P-value for Q-test = 0.967; I2 = 0%; highest versus lowest quantity of intake). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggested that caffeinated coffee might have chemo-preventive effects against MM but not decaffeinated coffee. However, larger prospective studies and the intervention studies are warranted to confirm these findings. PMID:26816289

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) in the assessment of alcohol use disorders among acute injury patients.

PubMed

Wade, Darryl; Varker, Tracey; Forbes, David; O'Donnell, Meaghan

2014-01-01

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) is a brief alcohol screening test and a candidate for inclusion in recommended screening and brief intervention protocols for acute injury patients. The objective of the current study was to examine the performance of the AUDIT-C to risk stratify injury patients with regard to their probability of having an alcohol use disorder. Participants (n = 1,004) were from a multisite Australian acute injury study. Stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis was used to examine the performance of previously recommended AUDIT-C risk zones based on a dichotomous cut-point (0 to 3, 4 to 12) and risk zones derived from SSLR analysis to estimate the probability of a current alcohol use disorder. Almost a quarter (23%) of patients met criteria for a current alcohol use disorder. SSLR analysis identified multiple AUDIT-C risk zones (0 to 3, 4 to 5, 6, 7 to 8, 9 to 12) with a wide range of posttest probabilities of alcohol use disorder, from 5 to 68%. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) score was 0.82 for the derived AUDIT-C zones and 0.70 for the recommended AUDIT-C zones. A comparison between AUROCs revealed that overall the derived zones performed significantly better than the recommended zones in being able to discriminate between patients with and without alcohol use disorder. The findings of SSLR analysis can be used to improve estimates of the probability of alcohol use disorder in acute injury patients based on AUDIT-C scores. In turn, this information can inform clinical interventions and the development of screening and intervention protocols in a range of settings. Copyright © 2013 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Cancer genetic risk assessment and referral patterns in primary care.

PubMed

Vig, Hetal S; Armstrong, Joanne; Egleston, Brian L; Mazar, Carla; Toscano, Michele; Bradbury, Angela R; Daly, Mary B; Meropol, Neal J

2009-12-01

This study was undertaken to describe cancer risk assessment practices among primary care providers (PCPs). An electronic survey was sent to PCPs affiliated with a single insurance carrier. Demographic and practice characteristics associated with cancer genetic risk assessment and testing activities were described. Latent class analysis supported by likelihood ratio tests was used to define PCP profiles with respect to the level of engagement in genetic risk assessment and referral activity based on demographic and practice characteristics. 860 physicians responded to the survey (39% family practice, 29% internal medicine, 22% obstetrics/gynecology (OB/GYN), 10% other). Most respondents (83%) reported that they routinely assess hereditary cancer risk; however, only 33% reported that they take a full, three-generation pedigree for risk assessment. OB/GYN specialty, female gender, and physician access to a genetic counselor were independent predictors of referral to cancer genetics specialists. Three profiles of PCPs, based upon referral practice and extent of involvement in genetics evaluation, were defined. Profiles of physician characteristics associated with varying levels of engagement with cancer genetic risk assessment and testing can be identified. These profiles may ultimately be useful in targeting decision support tools and services.

The association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jenabi, Ensiyeh; Ebrahimzadeh Zagami, Samira

2017-11-01

Some epidemiological studies have found that uterine leiomyoma can increase the risk of placenta abruption. To date, the meta-analysis has not been performed for assessing the relationship between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the association between uterine leiomyoma and the risk of placenta abruption. A literature search was conducted out in major databases PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to October 2016. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed by Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were showed using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. The literature search included 953 articles until October 2016 with 232,024 participants. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was significant association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption (2.63; 95% CI: 1.38, 3.88). We showed based on reports in observational studies that uterine leiomyoma is a risk factor for placenta abruption.

Seismic risk assessment of Trani's Cathedral bell tower in Apulia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaferio, Mariella; Foti, Dora

2017-09-01

The present paper deals with the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of slender historical buildings; these structures, in fact, may manifest a high risk with respect to seismic actions as usually they have been designed to resist to gravitational loads only, and are characterized by a high flexibility. To evaluate this behavior, the bell tower of the Trani's Cathedral is investigated. The tower is 57 m tall and is characterized by an unusual building typology, i.e., the walls are composed of a concrete core coupled with external masonry stones. The dynamic parameters and the mechanical properties of the tower have been evaluated on the basis of an extensive experimental campaign that made use of ambient vibration tests and ground penetrating radar tests. Such data have been utilized to calibrate a numerical model of the examined tower. A linear static analysis, a dynamic analysis and a nonlinear static analysis have been carried out on such model to evaluate the displacement capacity of the tower and the seismic risk assessment in accordance with the Italian guidelines.

The uterine leiomyoma and placenta previa: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jenabi, Ensiyeh; Fereidooni, Bita

2017-11-21

Some epidemiological studies have reported that uterine leiomyoma may increase the risk of placenta previa. To date, the meta-analysis has not been carried out for assessing the relationship between uterine leiomyoma and placenta previa. This meta-analysis was carried out to estimate the association between uterine leiomyoma and the risk of placenta previa. A systematic search was conducted out in major databases PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to June 2017. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed by Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were showed using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. The literature search included 1218 articles until to June 2017 with 255,886 women. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was significant association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta previa in studies adjusted (2.21; 95%CI: 1.48, 2.94). We showed based on reports in observational studies that uterine leiomyoma is a risk factor for placenta previa in studies adjusted.

Attempts at the practical on-road driving test and the hazard perception test and the risk of traffic crashes in young drivers.

PubMed

Boufous, Soufiane; Ivers, Rebecca; Senserrick, Teresa; Stevenson, Mark

2011-10-01

This study separately examined the impact of the outcomes of a practical on-road driving test and a hazard perception test on the likelihood of traffic crashes among a cohort of newly licensed young drivers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The DRIVE study is a prospective cohort study of drivers aged 17 to 24 years holding their first-year provisional driver license in NSW. Information obtained from 20,822 participants in a detailed baseline questionnaire was linked to information on the number of attempts at a mandatory practical on-road driving test and hazard perception test as well as police-reported traffic crashes. After controlling for a number of sociodemographic and behavioral factors as well as factors related to driver learning experiences, multivariate analysis showed that those who failed the practical on-road test at least 4 times had an increased risk of involvement in a traffic crash compared to those who passed the test at first attempt (relative risk [RR]: 1.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-2.65). The crash risk among those who failed the practical on-road test at least 4 times was particularly high in females (RR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.20-3.68). Similarly, those who failed the hazard perception test at least twice had an increased risk of involvement in a traffic crash (RR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.27-2.63) compared to those who passed the test on the first attempt. The crash risk of those who failed the hazard perception test at least twice was particularly high in males (RR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.5-4.1) and among those from rural and remote areas (RR: 5.53, 95% CI: 1.63-18.71). The findings have implications on licensing practices and suggest the need for adequate strategies to assist young drivers with multiple failures in the driving and hazard perception tests.

Addendum to ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa; Markandya, Anil; María Abadie, Luis

2018-02-01

This addendum adds to the analysis presented in ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’ Abadie et al (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 014017). We propose to use the framework developed earlier to enhance communication and understanding of risks, with the aim of bridging the gap between highly technical risk management discussion to the public risk aversion debate. We also propose that the framework could be used for stress-testing resilience.

A risk-based approach to robotic mission requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dias, William C.; Bourke, Roger D.

1992-01-01

A NASA Risk Team has developed a method for the application of risk management to the definition of robotic mission requirements for the Space Exploration Initiative. These requirements encompass environmental information, infrastructural emplacement in advance, and either technology testing or system/subsystems demonstration. Attention is presently given to a method for step-by-step consideration and analysis of the risk component inherent in mission architecture, followed by a calculation of the subjective risk level. Mitigation strategies are then applied with the same rules, and a comparison is made.

Motivation and experiences of self-testers regarding tests for cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Ickenroth, Martine H P; Grispen, Janaica E J; Ronda, Gaby; Tacken, Marloes; Dinant, Geert-Jan; de Vries, Nanne K; van der Weijden, Trudy

2014-02-01

In recent years, self-tests have become increasingly available to the general public, though their value is still being debated. Because these tests are available, consumers should have access to clear information about self-testing. Examining experiences of self-testers could contribute to the development of consumer information. Detailed exploration of consumers' experiences with self-testing for cardiovascular risk factors. Semi-structured interviews with 20 consumers who had performed a self-test for glucose, cholesterol or albuminuria. The main topics of the interviews were reasons for self-testing, performing the self-test, follow-up behaviour and perceived need for information on self-testing. Data were analysed using thematic content analysis. Regarding the reason for self-testing, three types of users were distinguished: those who engaged in self-testing when a test was offered, either with or without previous knowledge about the disease or risk factor, and those who had actively decided to test and had searched for a self-test themselves. Self-testers had generally experienced no problems performing the test or interpreting the result and had considerable confidence in the result. They were easily reassured by a normal result, while an abnormal result did not automatically mean they consulted a doctor. Most participants did not feel the need for more information. Self-testers often perform tests for reassurance, without considering the disadvantages, such as the absence of professional counselling and the risk of false-positive or false-negative results. Consumer information should promote more informed and deliberate choices for self-testing. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in women of different ethnicities undergoing testing for hereditary breast-ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Hall, Michael J.; Reid, Julia E.; Burbidge, Lynn A.; Pruss, Dmitry; Deffenbaugh, Amie M.; Frye, Cynthia; Wenstrup, Richard J.; Ward, Brian E.; Scholl, Thomas A.; Noll, Walter W.

2009-01-01

Background In women at increased risk for breast and ovarian cancer, the identification of a BRCA1/2 mutation has important implications for screening and prevention counseling. Uncertainty regarding the role of BRCA1/2 testing in high-risk women from diverse ancestral backgrounds exists due to variability in prevalence estimates of deleterious (disease-associated) mutations in non-White populations. We examined the prevalence of BRCA1/2 mutations in an ethnically diverse group of women referred for genetic testing. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis to assess the prevalence of BRCA1/2 mutations in a group of non-Ashkenazi Jewish women undergoing genetic testing. Results From 1996-2006, 46,276 women meeting study criteria underwent DNA full-sequence analysis of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Deleterious mutations were identified in 12.5% of subjects, and recurrent deleterious mutations (prevalence > 2%) were identified in all ancestral groups. Women of non-European descent were younger (45.9 yrs, SD11.6) than European (50.0 yrs, SD11.9)(p<0.001). Women of African (15.6%)[OR 1.3(1.1-1.5)] and Latin American (14.8%)[OR 1.2(1.1-1.4)] ancestries had a significantly higher prevalence of deleterious BRCA1/2 mutations compared to women of Western European ancestry (12.1%), primarily due to an increased prevalence of BRCA1 mutations in these two groups. Non-European ethnicity was strongly associated with having a variant of uncertain significance; however, re-classification decreased variant reporting (12.8%→5.9%), with women of African ancestry experiencing the largest decline (58%). Conclusions Mutation prevalence is high among women referred for clinical BRCA1/2 testing, and risk is similar across diverse ethnicities. BRCA1/2 testing is integral to cancer risk assessment in all high-risk women. PMID:19241424

Randomized noninferiority study evaluating the efficacy of 2 commercial dry cow mastitis formulations.

PubMed

Johnson, A P; Godden, S M; Royster, E; Zuidhof, S; Miller, B; Sorg, J

2016-01-01

The study objective was to compare the efficacy of 2 commercial dry cow mastitis formulations containing cloxacillin benzathine or ceftiofur hydrochloride. Quarter-level outcomes included prevalence of intramammary infection (IMI) postcalving, risk for cure of preexisting infections, risk for acquiring a new IMI during the dry period, and risk for clinical mastitis between dry off and 100 d in milk (DIM). Cow-level outcomes included the risk for clinical mastitis and the risk for removal from the herd between dry off and 100 DIM, as well as Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA) test-day milk component and production measures between calving and 100 DIM. A total of 799 cows from 4 Wisconsin dairy herds were enrolled at dry off and randomized to 1 of the 2 commercial dry cow therapy (DCT) treatments: cloxacillin benzathine (DC; n=401) or ceftiofur hydrochloride (SM; n=398). Aseptic quarter milk samples were collected for routine bacteriological culture before DCT at dry off and again at 0 to 10 DIM. Data describing clinical mastitis cases and DHIA test-day results were retrieved from on-farm electronic records. The overall crude quarter-level prevalence of IMI at dry off was 34.7% and was not different between treatment groups. Ninety-six percent of infections at dry off were of gram-positive organisms, with coagulase-negative Staphylococcus and Aerococcus spp. isolated most frequently. Mixed logistic regression analysis showed no difference between treatments as to the risk for presence of IMI at 0 to 10 DIM (DC=22.4%, SM=19.9%) or on the risk for acquiring a new IMI between dry off and 0 to 10 DIM (DC=16.6%, SM=14.1%). Noninferiority analysis and mixed logistic regression analysis both showed no treatment difference in risk for a cure between dry off and 0 to 10 DIM (DC=84.8%, SM=85.7%). Cox proportional hazards regression showed no difference between treatments in quarter-level risk for clinical mastitis (DC=1.99%, SM=2.96%), cow-level risk for clinical mastitis (DC=17.0%, SM=15.3%), or on risk for removal from the herd (DC=10.7%, SM=10.3%) between dry off and 100 DIM. Finally, multivariable linear regression with repeated measures showed no overall no difference between treatments in DHIA test-day somatic cell count linear score (DC=2.19, SM=2.22), butterfat test (DC=3.84%, SM=3.86%), protein test (DC=3.02%, SM=3.02%), or 305-d mature-equivalent milk production (DC=11,817 kg, SM=11,932 kg) between calving and 100 DIM. In conclusion, DC was noninferior to SM in effecting a cure, and there was no difference in efficacy between these 2 DCT formulations as related to all other udder health or cow performance measures evaluated between dry off and 100 DIM. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lack of health risk awareness in low-income Chinese youth migrants: assessment and associated factors.

PubMed

Shi, Yuhui; Ji, Ying; Sun, Jing; Wang, Yanling; Sun, Xinying; Li, Chaoyang; Wang, Dongxu; Chang, Chun

2012-09-01

To analyze and assess health risk awareness of youth migrants in China and the factors that influence it, and to provide evidence for making health promotion interventions and decreasing health risks among Chinese youth migrants. This was a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2009 among rural-to-urban migrants aged 15-24 years in Tianjin and Xi'an, China. A total of 1,838 youth migrants were enrolled by the stratified cluster sampling method. An anonymous questionnaire was self-administered to investigate health risk awareness. The t test and χ(2) test were used to analyze differences between different groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the influence of various sociodemographic, living condition, and occupational factors. The smoking rate of men (66.8%) was higher than that of women (6.8%; P < 0.05), the rate of sexual intercourse in men was higher than in women (56.8 vs 27.7%; P < 0.05), and 75.7% of participants had written into medical care systems with 40.4% of them having undergone a physical examination during the last year. Only 438 of the participants (26% of 1,647) were considered to have a satisfactory level of health risk awareness [273 (32.4% of 958) from Tianjin and 165 (28.8% of 689) from Xi'an]. No significant difference was found between the youth migrant populations of the two cities. The percentage of youth migrants with a satisfactory level of health risk awareness who thought they had a good health status was higher than that with an unsatisfactory health risk awareness who thought they had a good health status (P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, education, reading the newspaper, and occupation significantly influenced on health risk awareness. Youth migrants in China have a low health risk awareness. Combined and targeted health education interventions should be promoted to increase their health risk awareness.

Genetic Diagnosis and Testing in Clinical Practice

PubMed Central

McPherson, Elizabeth

2006-01-01

Genetic testing is defined as “the analysis of human DNA, RNA, chromosomes, proteins and certain metabolites in order to detect heritable disease-related genotypes, mutations, phenotypes or karyotypes for clinical purposes.” This article focuses on diagnostic and predictive genetic testing. The latter includes presymptomatic testing, which identifies individuals who are expected to become ill in the future and predisposition testing, which identifies those who are at increased risk of becoming ill. Decisions regarding genetic testing must be based not only on the analytic accuracy, availability and cost of the test, but on the clinical utility as well, including the sensitivity, specificity and interpretability of results. Clinical information, including the medical and family history and the findings of the physical examination, is vital for the selection of appropriate diagnostic tests, as well as the interpretation of the results. Presymptomatic genetic testing is a very personal choice that should only be made after the patient has had sufficient counseling to develop an understanding of the risks and benefits of the test and is able to make an informed decision. The same principle applies to predisposition testing; however, additional factors, such as the probability of a positive result, the likelihood that the disease will actually develop in those with positive results, the effect on the management of the index patient, the effects on family members, the risk of false reassurance if the result is negative or the potential for loss of hope if it is positive, all contribute to the assessment of risk versus benefit. Clinical evaluation and counseling of the patient who is at risk for a genetic disorder are labor intensive but essential for the selection and interpretation of genetic tests. PMID:16809405

[Generalization of the results of clinical studies through the analysis of subgroups].

PubMed

Costa, João; Fareleira, Filipa; Ascensão, Raquel; Vaz Carneiro, António

2012-01-01

Subgroup analysis in clinical trials are usually performed to define the potential heterogeneity of treatment effect in relation with the baseline risk, physiopathology, practical application of therapy or the under-utilization in clinical practice of effective interventions due to uncertainties of its benefit/risk ratio. When appropriately planned, subgroup analysis are a valid methodology the define benefits in subgroups of patients, thus providing good quality evidence to support clinical decision making. However, in order to be correct, subgroup analysis should be defined a priori, done in small numbers, should be fully reported and, most important, must endure statistical tests for interaction. In this paper we present an example of the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporosis, in which the benefits of an intervention (the higher the fracture risk is, the better the benefit is) with a specific agent (bazedoxifene) was only disclosed after a post-hoc analysis of the initial global trial sample.

Salmonella contamination risk points in broiler carcasses during slaughter line processing.

PubMed

Rivera-Pérez, Walter; Barquero-Calvo, Elías; Zamora-Sanabria, Rebeca

2014-12-01

Salmonella is one of the foodborne pathogens most commonly associated with poultry products. The aim of this work was to identify and analyze key sampling points creating risk of Salmonella contamination in a chicken processing plant in Costa Rica and perform a salmonellosis risk analysis. Accordingly, the following examinations were performed: (i) qualitative testing (presence or absence of Salmonella), (ii) quantitative testing (Salmonella CFU counts), and (iii) salmonellosis risk analysis, assuming consumption of contaminated meat from the processing plant selected. Salmonella was isolated in 26% of the carcasses selected, indicating 60% positive in the flocks sampled. The highest Salmonella counts were observed after bleeding (6.1 log CFU per carcass), followed by a gradual decrease during the subsequent control steps. An increase in the percentage of contamination (10 to 40%) was observed during evisceration and spray washing (after evisceration), with Salmonella counts increasing from 3.9 to 5.1 log CFU per carcass. According to the prevalence of Salmonella -contaminated carcasses released to trade (20%), we estimated a risk of 272 cases of salmonellosis per year as a result of the consumption of contaminated chicken. Our study suggests that the processes of evisceration and spray washing represent a risk of Salmonella cross-contamination and/ or recontamination in broilers during slaughter line processing.

Criteria for the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) safety evaluation process for fragrance ingredients.

PubMed

Api, A M; Belsito, D; Bruze, M; Cadby, P; Calow, P; Dagli, M L; Dekant, W; Ellis, G; Fryer, A D; Fukayama, M; Griem, P; Hickey, C; Kromidas, L; Lalko, J F; Liebler, D C; Miyachi, Y; Politano, V T; Renskers, K; Ritacco, G; Salvito, D; Schultz, T W; Sipes, I G; Smith, B; Vitale, D; Wilcox, D K

2015-08-01

The Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) has been engaged in the generation and evaluation of safety data for fragrance materials since its inception over 45 years ago. Over time, RIFM's approach to gathering data, estimating exposure and assessing safety has evolved as the tools for risk assessment evolved. This publication is designed to update the RIFM safety assessment process, which follows a series of decision trees, reflecting advances in approaches in risk assessment and new and classical toxicological methodologies employed by RIFM over the past ten years. These changes include incorporating 1) new scientific information including a framework for choosing structural analogs, 2) consideration of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), 3) the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for dermal sensitization, 4) the respiratory route of exposure, 5) aggregate exposure assessment methodology, 6) the latest methodology and approaches to risk assessments, 7) the latest alternatives to animal testing methodology and 8) environmental risk assessment. The assessment begins with a thorough analysis of existing data followed by in silico analysis, identification of 'read across' analogs, generation of additional data through in vitro testing as well as consideration of the TTC approach. If necessary, risk management may be considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Associations of TF Gene Polymorphisms with the Risk of Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Cai, Yi; Wu, Shaofang; Zeng, Chaosheng; Su, Qingjie; Zhou, Jingxia; Li, Pengxiang; Dai, Mingming; Wang, Desheng; Long, Faqing

2018-06-23

Ischemic stroke (IS) is the main cause of mortality and disability in China; thus, this study aimed to examine the association between six variants and their haplotypes within the transferrin (TF) gene and the risk of IS in the Southern Chinese Han population. Genotyping was performed using the Sequenom MassARRAY platform for 249 IS patients and 249 age- and sex-matched controls. The association between polymorphisms and IS risk was tested by Chi squared test and haplotype and stratification analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by unconditional logistic regression analysis. The results of genetic model analyses indicated that the two SNPs (rs1880669 and rs2692695) were associated with decreased IS risk under the co-dominant, dominant, and additive models. Additionally, rs4525863 was also associated with decreased IS risk both under the dominant and additive models in males. Moreover, the CG haplotype of TF (rs1880669 and rs2692695) was significantly associated with a decreased risk of IS in the total population and males. Our findings suggested that polymorphisms (rs4525863, rs1880669, and rs2692695) of the TF gene might be a protective factor for IS in Southern Chinese Han population. Further large prospective studies are required to confirm these findings.

Contamination Sources Effects Analysis (CSEA) - A Tool to Balance Cost/Schedule While Managing Facility Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, Margaret

2008-01-01

A CSEA is similar to a Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA). A CSEA tracks risk, deterrence, and occurrence of sources of contamination and their mitigation plans. Documentation is provided spanning mechanical and electrical assembly, precision cleaning, thermal vacuum bake-out, and thermal vacuum testing. These facilities all may play a role in contamination budgeting and reduction ultimately affecting test and flight. With a CSEA, visibility can be given to availability of these facilities, test sequencing and trade-offs. A cross-functional team including specialty engineering, contamination control, electrostatic dissipation, manufacturing, testing, and material engineering participate in an exercise that identifies contaminants and minimizes the complexity of scheduling these facilities considering their volatile schedules. Care can be taken in an efficient manner to insure correct cleaning processes are employed. The result is reduction in cycle time ("schedule hits"), reduced cost due to rework, reduced risk and improved communication and quality while achieving adherence to the Contamination Control Plan.

Risk factors for hearing loss in infants under universal hearing screening program in Northern Thailand

PubMed Central

Poonual, Watcharapol; Navacharoen, Niramon; Kangsanarak, Jaran; Namwongprom, Sirianong

2016-01-01

Objective To define the risk factors for hearing loss in infants (aged 3 months) under universal hearing screening program. Materials and methods A total of 3,120 infants (aged 3 months) who underwent hearing screening using a universal hearing screening program using automated otoacoustic emission test between November 1, 2010 and May 31, 2012 in Uttaradit Hospital, Buddhachinaraj Hospital, and Sawanpracharuk Hospital (tertiary hospitals) located in Northern Thailand were included in this prospective cohort study. Results Of the 3,120 infants, 135 (4.3%) were confirmed to have hearing loss with the conventional otoacoustic emission test. Five of these 135 infants (3.7%) with hearing loss showed test results consistent with auditory brainstem responses. From the univariable analysis, there were eleven potential risk factors associated with hearing deterioration. On multivariable analysis, the risk factors independently associated with hearing loss at 3 months were birth weight 1,500–2,500 g (risk ratio [RR] 1.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.6), APGAR score <6 at 5 minutes (RR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1–4.4), craniofacial anomalies (RR 2.5, 95% CI 1.6–4.2), sepsis (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0–3.2), and ototoxic exposure (RR 4.1, 95% CI 1.9–8.6). Conclusion This study concluded that low birth weight, APGAR score <6 at 5 minutes, craniofacial anomalies, sepsis, and ototoxic exposure are the risk factors for bilateral hearing loss in infants (aged 3 months) and proper tests should be performed to identify these risk factors. As an outcome, under the present circumstances, it is suggested that infirmary/physicians/general practitioners/health action centers/polyclinics should carry out universal hearing screening in all infants before 36 weeks. The public health policy of Thailand regarding a universal hearing screening program is important for the prevention of disability and to enhance people’s quality of life. PMID:26766912

Consumption of vegetables and fruit and the risk of inflammatory bowel disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Fang; Liu, Xiaoqin; Wang, Weijing; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-06-01

To date, associations between consumption of vegetables and fruit and the risk of inflammatory bowel disease have been a controversial subject. Therefore, we carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate the associations. A comprehensive search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure to identify all relevant studies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from random-effects or fixed-effects models were calculated. Publication bias was estimated using Egger's test and the funnel plot. A total of 14 case-control studies were included in this meta-analysis. On the basis of the highest versus the lowest analysis, consumption of vegetables was associated inversely with the risk of ulcerative colitis (UC) (OR=0.71, 95% CI 0.58-0.88, n=9 studies), but not with Crohn's disease (CD) (OR=0.66, 95% CI 0.40-1.09, n=8 studies). Higher consumption of fruit was associated inversely with the risk of UC (OR=0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96, n=8 studies) and CD (OR=0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.74, n=10 studies). For intake of vegetables and the risk of CD, subgroup analysis showed a significant association for studies carried out in Europe (OR=0.36, 95% CI 0.23-0.57), but not in Asia (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.50-2.03). No significant publication bias was found for the analysis of intake of vegetables and the risk of UC, intake of fruit and the risk of UC, and intake of vegetables and the risk of CD. This meta-analysis indicates that consumption of vegetables and fruit might be associated inversely with the risk of UC and CD, and the results need to be further confirmed.

Association of Alzheimer's disease GWAS loci with MRI markers of brain aging.

PubMed

Chauhan, Ganesh; Adams, Hieab H H; Bis, Joshua C; Weinstein, Galit; Yu, Lei; Töglhofer, Anna Maria; Smith, Albert Vernon; van der Lee, Sven J; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Thomson, Russell; Wang, Jing; Yang, Qiong; Niessen, Wiro J; Lopez, Oscar L; Becker, James T; Phan, Thanh G; Beare, Richard J; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; Fleischman, Debra; Vernooij, Meike W; Mazoyer, Bernard; Schmidt, Helena; Srikanth, Velandai; Knopman, David S; Jack, Clifford R; Amouyel, Philippe; Hofman, Albert; DeCarli, Charles; Tzourio, Christophe; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Bennett, David A; Schmidt, Reinhold; Longstreth, William T; Mosley, Thomas H; Fornage, Myriam; Launer, Lenore J; Seshadri, Sudha; Ikram, M Arfan; Debette, Stephanie

2015-04-01

Whether novel risk variants of Alzheimer's disease (AD) identified through genome-wide association studies also influence magnetic resonance imaging-based intermediate phenotypes of AD in the general population is unclear. We studied association of 24 AD risk loci with intracranial volume, total brain volume, hippocampal volume (HV), white matter hyperintensity burden, and brain infarcts in a meta-analysis of genetic association studies from large population-based samples (N = 8175-11,550). In single-SNP based tests, AD risk allele of APOE (rs2075650) was associated with smaller HV (p = 0.0054) and CD33 (rs3865444) with smaller intracranial volume (p = 0.0058). In gene-based tests, there was associations of HLA-DRB1 with total brain volume (p = 0.0006) and BIN1 with HV (p = 0.00089). A weighted AD genetic risk score was associated with smaller HV (beta ± SE = -0.047 ± 0.013, p = 0.00041), even after excluding the APOE locus (p = 0.029). However, only association of AD genetic risk score with HV, including APOE, was significant after multiple testing correction (including number of independent phenotypes tested). These results suggest that novel AD genetic risk variants may contribute to structural brain aging in nondemented older community persons. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive genetic testing in minors for late-onset conditions: a chronological and analytical review of the ethical arguments.

PubMed

Mand, Cara; Gillam, Lynn; Delatycki, Martin B; Duncan, Rony E

2012-09-01

Predictive genetic testing is now routinely offered to asymptomatic adults at risk for genetic disease. However, testing of minors at risk for adult-onset conditions, where no treatment or preventive intervention exists, has evoked greater controversy and inspired a debate spanning two decades. This review aims to provide a detailed longitudinal analysis and concludes by examining the debate's current status and prospects for the future. Fifty-three relevant theoretical papers published between 1990 and December 2010 were identified, and interpretative content analysis was employed to catalogue discrete arguments within these papers. Novel conclusions were drawn from this review. While the debate's first voices were raised in opposition of testing and their arguments have retained currency over many years, arguments in favour of testing, which appeared sporadically at first, have gained momentum more recently. Most arguments on both sides are testable empirical claims, so far untested, rather than abstract ethical or philosophical positions. The dispute, therein, lies not so much in whether minors should be permitted to access predictive genetic testing but whether these empirical claims on the relative benefits or harms of testing should be assessed.

Making the Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission safe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bahr, N. J.; Depalo, S. V.

1992-01-01

The implementation of the HST system safety program is detailed. Numerous safety analyses are conducted through various phases of design, test, and fabrication, and results are presented to NASA management for discussion during dedicated safety reviews. Attention is given to the system safety assessment and risk analysis methodologies used, i.e., hazard analysis, fault tree analysis, and failure modes and effects analysis, and to how they are coupled with engineering and test analysis for a 'synergistic picture' of the system. Some preliminary safety analysis results, showing the relationship between hazard identification, control or abatement, and finally control verification, are presented as examples of this safety process.

Adolescent Risk: The Co-Occurrence of Illness, Suicidality, and Substance Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Husler, Gebhard; Blakeney, Ronny; Werlen, Egon

2005-01-01

Illness is rarely considered a "risk factor" in adolescence. This study tests illness, suicidality and substance use as outcome measures in a path analysis of 1028 Swiss adolescents in secondary prevention programs. The model showed that negative mood (depression and anxiety) predicted two paths. One path led from negative mood to…

Risk of cancer in an occupationally exposed cohort with increased level of chromosomal aberrations.

PubMed Central

Smerhovsky, Z; Landa, K; Rössner, P; Brabec, M; Zudova, Z; Hola, N; Pokorna, Z; Mareckova, J; Hurychova, D

2001-01-01

We used cytogenetic analysis to carry out a cohort study in which the major objective was to test the association between frequency of chromosomal aberrations and subsequent risk of cancer. In spite of the extensive use of the cytogenetic analysis of human peripheral blood lymphocytes in biomonitoring of exposure to various mutagens and carcinogens on an ecologic level, the long-term effects of an increased frequency of chromosomal aberrations in individuals are still uncertain. Few epidemiologic studies have addressed this issue, and a moderate risk of cancer in individuals with an elevated frequency of chromosomal aberrations has been observed. In the present study, we analyzed data on 8,962 cytogenetic tests and 3,973 subjects. We found a significant and strong association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations and cancer incidence in a group of miners exposed to radon, where a 1% increase in frequency of chromosomal aberrations was followed by a 64% increase in risk of cancer (p < 0.000). In contrast, the collected data are inadequate for a critical evaluation of the association with exposure to other chemicals. PMID:11171523

Insomnia and risk of dementia in older adults: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

de Almondes, Katie Moraes; Costa, Mônica Vieira; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro Fernandes; Diniz, Breno Satler

2016-06-01

There are cross-sectional evidences of an association between sleep disorders and cognitive impairment on older adults. However, there are no consensus by means of longitudinal studies data on the increased risk of developing dementia related to insomnia. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of incident all-cause dementia in individuals with insomnia in population-based prospective cohort studies. Five studies of 5.242 retrieved references were included in the meta-analysis. We used the generic inverse variance method with a random effects model to calculate the pooled risk of dementia in older adults with insomnia. We assessed heterogeneity in the meta-analysis by means of the Q-test and I2 index. Study quality was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale The results showed that Insomnia was associated with a significant risk of all-cause dementia (RR = 1.53 CI95% (1.07-2.18), z = 2.36, p = 0.02). There was evidence for significant heterogeneity in the analysis (q-value = 2.4, p < 0.001 I2 = 82%). Insomnia is associated with an increased risk for dementia. This results provide evidences that future studies should investigate dementia prevention among elderly individuals through screening and proper management of insomnia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring Factors Associated with Recent HIV Testing among Heterosexuals at High Risk for HIV Infection Recruited with Venue-based Sampling.

PubMed

Gwadz, Marya; Cleland, Charles M; Jenness, Samuel M; Silverman, Elizabeth; Hagan, Holly; Ritchie, Amanda S; Leonard, Noelle R; McCright-Gill, Talaya; Martinez, Belkis; Swain, Quentin; Kutnick, Alexandra; Sherpa, Dawa

2016-02-01

Annual HIV testing is recommended for high-risk populations in the United States, to identify HIV infections early and provide timely linkage to treatment. However, heterosexuals at high risk for HIV, due to their residence in urban areas of high poverty and elevated HIV prevalence, test for HIV less frequently than other risk groups, and late diagnosis of HIV is common. Yet the factors impeding HIV testing in this group, which is predominantly African American/Black and Latino/Hispanic, are poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Using a systematic community-based sampling method, venue-based sampling (VBS), we estimate rates of lifetime and recent (past year) HIV testing among high-risk heterosexuals (HRH), and explore a set of putative multi-level barriers to and facilitators of recent testing, by gender. Participants were 338 HRH African American/Black and Latino/Hispanic adults recruited using VBS, who completed a computerized structured assessment battery guided by the Theory of Triadic Influence, comprised of reliable/valid measures on socio-demographic characteristics, HIV testing history, and multi-level barriers to HIV testing. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with HIV testing within the past year. Most HRH had tested at least once (94%), and more than half had tested within the past year (58%), but only 37% tested annually. In both men and women, the odds of recent testing were similar and associated with structural factors (better access to testing) and sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing and diagnosis. Thus VBS identified serious gaps in rates of annual HIV testing among HRH. Improvements in access to high-quality HIV testing and leveraging of STI testing are needed to increase the proportion of HRH testing annually for HIV. Such improvements could increase early detection of HIV, improve the long-term health of individuals, and reduce HIV transmission by increasing rates of viral suppression.

The association between maternal smoking and placenta abruption: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shobeiri, Fatemeh; Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra; Jenabi, Ensiyeh

2017-08-01

Several epidemiological studies have determined that maternal smoking can increase the risk of placenta abruption. To date, only a meta-analysis has been performed for assessing the relationship between smoking and placenta abruption. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the association between smoking and the risk of placenta abruption. A literature search was conducted in major databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to April 2016. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed using Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were reported using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random effects model. The literature search yielded 1167 publications until April 2016 with 4 309 610 participants. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was a significant association between smoking and placenta abruption (1.80; 95% CI: 1.75, 1.85). Based on the results of cohort studies, smoking and placenta abruption had a significant association (relative risk ratio: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.51, 1.80). Based on reports in epidemiological studies, we showed that smoking is a risk factor for placenta abruption.

“Soldier's Heart”: A Genetic Basis for Elevated Cardiovascular Disease Risk Associated with Post-traumatic Stress Disorder

PubMed Central

Pollard, Harvey B.; Shivakumar, Chittari; Starr, Joshua; Eidelman, Ofer; Jacobowitz, David M.; Dalgard, Clifton L.; Srivastava, Meera; Wilkerson, Matthew D.; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.

2016-01-01

“Soldier's Heart,” is an American Civil War term linking post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) with increased propensity for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We have hypothesized that there might be a quantifiable genetic basis for this linkage. To test this hypothesis we identified a comprehensive set of candidate risk genes for PTSD, and tested whether any were also independent risk genes for CVD. A functional analysis algorithm was used to identify associated signaling networks. We identified 106 PTSD studies that report one or more polymorphic variants in 87 candidate genes in 83,463 subjects and controls. The top upstream drivers for these PTSD risk genes are predicted to be the glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1) and Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNFA). We find that 37 of the PTSD candidate risk genes are also candidate independent risk genes for CVD. The association between PTSD and CVD is significant by Fisher's Exact Test (P = 3 × 10−54). We also find 15 PTSD risk genes that are independently associated with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM; also significant by Fisher's Exact Test (P = 1.8 × 10−16). Our findings offer quantitative evidence for a genetic link between post-traumatic stress and cardiovascular disease, Computationally, the common mechanism for this linkage between PTSD and CVD is innate immunity and NFκB-mediated inflammation. PMID:27721742

"Soldier's Heart": A Genetic Basis for Elevated Cardiovascular Disease Risk Associated with Post-traumatic Stress Disorder.

PubMed

Pollard, Harvey B; Shivakumar, Chittari; Starr, Joshua; Eidelman, Ofer; Jacobowitz, David M; Dalgard, Clifton L; Srivastava, Meera; Wilkerson, Matthew D; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J

2016-01-01

"Soldier's Heart," is an American Civil War term linking post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) with increased propensity for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We have hypothesized that there might be a quantifiable genetic basis for this linkage. To test this hypothesis we identified a comprehensive set of candidate risk genes for PTSD, and tested whether any were also independent risk genes for CVD. A functional analysis algorithm was used to identify associated signaling networks. We identified 106 PTSD studies that report one or more polymorphic variants in 87 candidate genes in 83,463 subjects and controls. The top upstream drivers for these PTSD risk genes are predicted to be the glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1) and Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNFA). We find that 37 of the PTSD candidate risk genes are also candidate independent risk genes for CVD. The association between PTSD and CVD is significant by Fisher's Exact Test ( P = 3 × 10 -54 ). We also find 15 PTSD risk genes that are independently associated with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM; also significant by Fisher's Exact Test ( P = 1.8 × 10 -16 ). Our findings offer quantitative evidence for a genetic link between post-traumatic stress and cardiovascular disease, Computationally, the common mechanism for this linkage between PTSD and CVD is innate immunity and NFκB-mediated inflammation.

[Analysis of 14 individuals who requested predictive genetic testing for hereditary neuromuscular diseases].

PubMed

Yoshida, Kunihiro; Tamai, Mariko; Kubota, Takeo; Kawame, Hiroshi; Amano, Naoji; Ikeda, Shu-ichi; Fukushima, Yoshimitsu

2002-02-01

Predictive genetic testing for hereditary neuromuscular diseases is a delicate issue for individuals at risk and their families, as well as for medical staff because these diseases are often late-onset and intractable. Therefore careful pre- and post-test genetic counseling and psychosocial support should be provided along with such genetic testing. The Division of Clinical and Molecular Genetics was established at our hospital in May 1996 to provide skilled professional genetic counseling. Since its establishment, 14 individuals have visited our clinic to request predictive genetic testing for hereditary neuromuscular diseases (4 for myotonic dystrophy, 6 for spinocerebellar ataxia, 3 for Huntington's disease, and 1 for Alzheimer's disease). The main reasons for considering testing were to remove uncertainty about the genetic status and to plan for the future. Nine of 14 individuals requested testing for making decisions about a forthcoming marriage or pregnancy (family planning). Other reasons raised by the individuals included career or financial planning, planning for their own health care, and knowing the risk for their children. At the first genetic counseling session, all of the individuals expressed hopes of not being a gene carrier and of escaping from fear of disease, and seemed not to be mentally well prepared for an increased-risk result. To date, 7 of the 14 individuals have received genetic testing and only one, who underwent predictive genetic testing for spinocerebellar ataxia, was given an increased-risk result. The seven individuals including the one with an increased-risk result, have coped well with their new knowledge about their genetic status after the testing results were disclosed. None of them has expressed regret. In pre-test genetic counseling sessions, we consider it quite important not only to determine the psychological status of the individual, but also to make the individual try to anticipate the changes in his/her life upon receiving an increased-risk or a decreased-risk result. Sufficient time should be taken to build a good relationship between the individual and his/her family and the medical staff during pre-test counseling sessions. This will help the individuals feel satisfied with their own decisions for the future, whether they receive genetic testing or not.

Quantifying and Addressing the DOE Material Reactivity Requirements with Analysis and Testing of Hydrogen Storage Materials & Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, Y. F.

2012-04-30

The objective of this project is to examine safety aspects of candidate hydrogen storage materials and systems being developed in the DOE Hydrogen Program. As a result of this effort, the general DOE safety target will be given useful meaning by establishing a link between the characteristics of new storage materials and the satisfaction of safety criteria. This will be accomplished through the development and application of formal risk analysis methods, standardized materials testing, chemical reactivity characterization, novel risk mitigation approaches and subscale system demonstration. The project also will collaborate with other DOE and international activities in materials based hydrogenmore » storage safety to provide a larger, highly coordinated effort.« less

Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

PubMed

Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

1996-04-15

We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits.

78 FR 44926 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental Assessment, Preliminary...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-25

... analysis of data submitted by Monsanto, a review of other scientific data, field tests conducted under... EA. Based on APHIS' analysis of field and laboratory data submitted by Monsanto, references provided...-2012-0027, Regulatory Analysis and Development, PPD, APHIS, Station 3A-03.8, 4700 River Road Unit 118...

Intimate Partner Violence and HIV Risk Behaviors Among Socially Disadvantaged Chilean Women

PubMed Central

Miner, Sarah; Ferrer, Lilian; Cianelli, Rosina; Bernales, Margarita; Cabieses, Báltica

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine if a relationship exists between intimate partner violence (IPV) and HIV risk among socioeconomically disadvantaged Chilean women. A correlational analysis with data from the NIH-funded project, “Testing an HIV/AIDS Prevention Intervention for Chilean Women,” was conducted. Two hundred and sixtyone women were included in this analysis (n = 261). Those women who had experienced any type of IPV in the past 3 months had significantly higher risk for HIV than those who had not (t = −2.016, p < .05). Also a linear trend was found among those women who had experienced more than one type of IPV in the past 3 months and HIV risk. PMID:21486859

Clostridium difficile infection in hospitalized patients with inflammatory bowel disease: Prevalence, risk factors, and prognosis.

PubMed

Maharshak, Nitsan; Barzilay, Idan; Zinger, Hasya; Hod, Keren; Dotan, Iris

2018-02-01

To evaluate the frequency, possible risk factors, and outcome of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients.There has been an upsurge of CDI in patients with IBD who has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Various risk factors have been found to predispose IBD patients to CDI.A retrospective case-control study on IBD patients admitted with exacerbation and tested for CDI at the Tel Aviv Medical Center in 2008 to 2013. Epidemiologic, laboratory, and prognostic data were retrieved from electronic files and compared between patients who tested positive (CDI+) or negative (CDI-) for CDI.CDI was identified in 28 of 311 (7.31%) IBD patients hospitalized with diarrhea. IBD-specific risk factors (univariate analysis) for CDI included: use of systemic steroids therapy (odds ratio [OR] = 3.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-10.6) and combinations of ≥2 immunomodulator medications (OR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.3). Additional risk factors for CDI that are common in the general population were hospitalization in the preceding 2 months (OR = 6.0, 95% CI 2.6-14.1), use of antacids (OR = 3.8, 95% CI 1.7-8.4), and high Charlson comorbidity score (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1-5.7). A multivariate analysis confirmed that only hospitalization within the preceding 2 months and use of antacids were significant risk factors for CDI. The prognosis of CDI+ patients was similar to that of CDI- patients.Hospitalized IBD patients with exacerbation treated with antacids or recently hospitalized are at increased risk for CDI and should be tested and empirically treated until confirmation or exclusion of the infection.

Health-Related Lifestyle Factors and Sexual Dysfunction: A Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Research.

PubMed

Allen, Mark S; Walter, Emma E

2018-04-01

Sexual dysfunction is a common problem among men and women and is associated with negative individual functioning, relationship difficulties, and lower quality of life. To determine the magnitude of associations between 6 health-related lifestyle factors (cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, diet, caffeine, and cannabis use) and 3 common sexual dysfunctions (erectile dysfunction, premature ejaculation, and female sexual dysfunction). A comprehensive literature search of 10 electronic databases identified 89 studies that met the inclusion criteria (452 effect sizes; N = 348,865). Pooled mean effects (for univariate, age-adjusted, and multivariable-adjusted estimates) were computed using inverse-variance weighted random-effects meta-analysis and moderation by study and population characteristics were tested using random-effects meta-regression. Mean effect sizes from 92 separate meta-analyses provided evidence that health-related lifestyle factors are important for sexual dysfunction. Cigarette smoking (past and current), alcohol intake, and physical activity had dose-dependent associations with erectile dysfunction. Risk of erectile dysfunction increased with greater cigarette smoking and decreased with greater physical activity. Alcohol had a curvilinear association such that moderate intake was associated with a lower risk of erectile dysfunction. Participation in physical activity was associated with a lower risk of female sexual dysfunction. There was some evidence that a healthy diet was related to a lower risk of erectile dysfunction and female sexual dysfunction, and caffeine intake was unrelated to erectile dysfunction. Publication bias appeared minimal and findings were similar for clinical and non-clinical samples. Modification of lifestyle factors would appear to be a useful low-risk approach to decreasing the risk of erectile dysfunction and female sexual dysfunction. Strengths include the testing of age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted models and tests of potential moderators using meta-regression. Limitations include low statistical power in models testing diet, caffeine, and cannabis use as risk factors. Results provide compelling evidence that cigarette smoking, alcohol, and physical activity are important for sexual dysfunction. Insufficient research was available to draw conclusions regarding risk factors for premature ejaculation or for cannabis use as a risk factor. These findings should be of interest to clinicians treating men and women with complaints relating to symptoms of sexual dysfunction. Allen MS, Walter EE. Health-Related Lifestyle Factors and Sexual Dysfunction: A Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Research. J Sex Med 2018;15:458-475. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of abortion and stillbirth in a beef cattle system in Southeastern Mexico.

PubMed

Segura-Correa, José C; Segura-Correa, Victor M

2009-12-01

Prenatal mortality is an important cause of production losses in the livestock industry. This study estimates the prevalences of abortion and stillbirth in a beef cattle system and determines the significance of some risk factors, in the tropics of Mexico. Data were obtained from a Zebu cattle herd and their crosses with Bos taurus breeds, in Yucatan, Mexico. The logit of the probability of an abortion or stillbirth was modeled using binary logistic regression. The risk factors tested were: year of abortion (or calving), season of abortion (or calving), parity number and dam breed group. The effect of twins on stillbirth was tested using Fisher exact test. Of the 4175 calvings studied 49 were abortions (1.17%). Significant factors in the logistic regression analysis for abortions were season of abortion and parity number. The risk of abortion was lower in the dry seasons compared to the rainy and windy seasons (P = 0.009). The risk of abortion was higher in second parity cows followed by the third and first parity cows, as compared to older cows (P = 0.015). Of the 4126 births, 87 were stillbirths (2.11%). Significant factors in the logistic regression analysis for stillbirth were year of calving (P = 0.0001) and parity number (P < 0.001). The risk of stillbirth in first parity cows was 2.6 times that of old cows. Of the total births, 15 were twins (0.36%) of which 7 were born dead calves. Herd owners must focus on the significant risk factors under their control to reduce the prevalence of prenatal mortality.

Random matrix theory filters in portfolio optimisation: A stability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, J.; Crane, M.; Ruskin, H. J.

2008-07-01

Random matrix theory (RMT) filters, applied to covariance matrices of financial returns, have recently been shown to offer improvements to the optimisation of stock portfolios. This paper studies the effect of three RMT filters on the realised portfolio risk, and on the stability of the filtered covariance matrix, using bootstrap analysis and out-of-sample testing. We propose an extension to an existing RMT filter, (based on Krzanowski stability), which is observed to reduce risk and increase stability, when compared to other RMT filters tested. We also study a scheme for filtering the covariance matrix directly, as opposed to the standard method of filtering correlation, where the latter is found to lower the realised risk, on average, by up to 6.7%. We consider both equally and exponentially weighted covariance matrices in our analysis, and observe that the overall best method out-of-sample was that of the exponentially weighted covariance, with our Krzanowski stability-based filter applied to the correlation matrix. We also find that the optimal out-of-sample decay factors, for both filtered and unfiltered forecasts, were higher than those suggested by Riskmetrics [J.P. Morgan, Reuters, Riskmetrics technical document, Technical Report, 1996. http://www.riskmetrics.com/techdoc.html], with those for the latter approaching a value of α=1. In conclusion, RMT filtering reduced the realised risk, on average, and in the majority of cases when tested out-of-sample, but increased the realised risk on a marked number of individual days-in some cases more than doubling it.

LESSONS FROM A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF A 5-YR PERIOD OF QUARANTINE AT SAN DIEGO ZOO: A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO QUARANTINE ISOLATION AND TESTING MAY BENEFIT ANIMAL WELFARE.

PubMed

Wallace, Chelsea; Marinkovich, Matt; Morris, Pat J; Rideout, Bruce; Pye, Geoffrey W

2016-03-01

Quarantine is designed primarily to prevent the introduction of transmissible diseases to zoological collections. Improvements in preventive medicine, disease eradication, and comprehensive pathology programs call into question current industry quarantine standards. Disease risk analysis was used at the San Diego Zoo (SDZ) and the SDZ Safari Park to eliminate quarantine isolation and transmissible disease testing for animals transferred between the two institutions. To determine if a risk-based approach might be valid between other institutions and SDZ, we reviewed quarantine data for animals arriving at SDZ from 81 Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA)-accredited and 124 other sources (e.g., non-AZA-accredited institutions, private breeders, private dealers, governmental bodies) over a 5-yr period (2009-2013). No mammal or herptile failed quarantine due to transmissible diseases of concern. Approximately 2.5% of incoming birds failed quarantine due to transmissible disease; however, all 14 failed individuals were obtained from three nonaccredited sources (private breeders, confiscation). The results of our study suggest that a risk-based approach could be used to minimize or eliminate quarantine for the transfer of animals from institutions with comprehensive disease surveillance programs and/or preshipment testing practices. Quarantine isolation with testing remains an essential defense against introducing transmissible diseases of concern when there is a lack of health knowledge about the animals being received.

Regulatory Science in Professional Education.

PubMed

Akiyama, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

In the field of pharmaceutical sciences, the subject of regulatory science (RS) includes pharmaceuticals, food, and living environments. For pharmaceuticals, considering the balance between efficacy and safety is a point required for public acceptance, and in that balance, more importance is given to efficacy in curing disease. For food, however, safety is the most important consideration for public acceptance because food should be essentially free of risk. To ensure food safety, first, any hazard that is an agent in food or condition of food with the potential to cause adverse health effects should be identified and characterized. Then the risk that it will affect public health is scientifically analyzed. This process is called risk assessment. Second, risk management should be conducted to reduce a risk that has the potential to affect public health found in a risk assessment. Furthermore, risk communication, which is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk and risk management among risk assessors, risk managers, consumers, and other interested parties, should be conducted. Food safety is ensured based on risk analysis consisting of the three components of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. RS in the field of food safety supports risk analysis, such as scientific research and development of test methods to evaluate food quality, efficacy, and safety. RS is also applied in the field of living environments because the safety of environmental chemical substances is ensured based on risk analysis, similar to that conducted for food.

Biomechanical analysis on fracture risk associated with bone deformity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, Nur Amalina Nadiah Mustafa; Som, Mohd Hanafi Mat; Basaruddin, Khairul Salleh; Daud, Ruslizam

2017-09-01

Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) is a disease related to bone deformity and is also known as `brittle bone' disease. Currently, medical personnel predict the bone fracture solely based on their experience. In this study, the prediction for risk of fracture was carried out by using finite element analysis on the simulated OI bone of femur. The main objective of this research was to analyze the fracture risk of OI-affected bone with respect to various loadings. A total of 12 models of OI bone were developed by applying four load cases and the angle of deformation for each of the models was calculated. The models were differentiated into four groups, namely standard, light, mild and severe. The results show that only a small amount of load is required to increase the fracture risk of the bone when the model is tested with hopping conditions. The analysis also shows that the torsional load gives a small effect to the increase of the fracture risk of the bone.

A simple test of choice stepping reaction time for assessing fall risk in people with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Tijsma, Mylou; Vister, Eva; Hoang, Phu; Lord, Stephen R

2017-03-01

Purpose To determine (a) the discriminant validity for established fall risk factors and (b) the predictive validity for falls of a simple test of choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Method People with MS (n = 210, 21-74y) performed the CSRT, sensorimotor, balance and neuropsychological tests in a single session. They were then followed up for falls using monthly fall diaries for 6 months. Results The CSRT test had excellent discriminant validity with respect to established fall risk factors. Frequent fallers (≥3 falls) performed significantly worse in the CSRT test than non-frequent fallers (0-2 falls). With the odds of suffering frequent falls increasing 69% with each SD increase in CSRT (OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.27-2.26, p = <0.001). In regression analysis, CSRT was best explained by sway, time to complete the 9-Hole Peg test, knee extension strength of the weaker leg, proprioception and the time to complete the Trails B test (multiple R 2   =   0.449, p < 0.001). Conclusions A simple low tech CSRT test has excellent discriminative and predictive validity in relation to falls in people with MS. This test may prove useful in documenting longitudinal changes in fall risk in relation to MS disease progression and effects of interventions. Implications for rehabilitation Good choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) is required for maintaining balance. A simple low-tech CSRT test has excellent discriminative and predictive validity in relation to falls in people with MS. This test may prove useful documenting longitudinal changes in fall risk in relation to MS disease progression and effects of interventions.

Developing a quality by design approach to model tablet dissolution testing: an industrial case study.

PubMed

Yekpe, Ketsia; Abatzoglou, Nicolas; Bataille, Bernard; Gosselin, Ryan; Sharkawi, Tahmer; Simard, Jean-Sébastien; Cournoyer, Antoine

2018-07-01

This study applied the concept of Quality by Design (QbD) to tablet dissolution. Its goal was to propose a quality control strategy to model dissolution testing of solid oral dose products according to International Conference on Harmonization guidelines. The methodology involved the following three steps: (1) a risk analysis to identify the material- and process-related parameters impacting the critical quality attributes of dissolution testing, (2) an experimental design to evaluate the influence of design factors (attributes and parameters selected by risk analysis) on dissolution testing, and (3) an investigation of the relationship between design factors and dissolution profiles. Results show that (a) in the case studied, the two parameters impacting dissolution kinetics are active pharmaceutical ingredient particle size distributions and tablet hardness and (b) these two parameters could be monitored with PAT tools to predict dissolution profiles. Moreover, based on the results obtained, modeling dissolution is possible. The practicality and effectiveness of the QbD approach were demonstrated through this industrial case study. Implementing such an approach systematically in industrial pharmaceutical production would reduce the need for tablet dissolution testing.

Risk Evaluation of Business Continuity Management by Using Green Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gang, Chen

IT disasters can be seen as the test of the ability in communities and firms to effectively protect their information and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. In this paper, we use a literature meta-analysis method to identify potential research directions in Green Business Continuity Management (GBCM). The concept and characteristics of GBCM are discussed. We analysis the connotation and the sources of green technology risk. An assessment index system is established from the perspectives of GBCM. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is introduced to assess the risks of green technology in Business Continuity Management.

68Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT: a promising new technique for predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Liu, Chen; Liu, Teli; Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yiqiang; Li, Nan; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong; Liu, Ming; Gong, Kan; Yang, Xing; Zhu, Hua; Yan, Kun; Yang, Zhi

2018-05-02

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT in predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer as confirmed by needle biopsy were continuously included, 40 in a train set and ten in a test set. 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT and clinical data of all patients were retrospectively analyzed. Semi-quantitative analysis of PET images provided maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of primary prostate cancer and volumetric parameters including intraprostatic PSMA-derived tumor volume (iPSMA-TV) and intraprostatic total lesion PSMA (iTL-PSMA). According to prostate cancer risk stratification criteria of the NCCN Guideline, all patients were simplified into a low-intermediate risk group or a high-risk group. The semi-quantitative parameters of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT were used to establish a univariate logistic regression model for high-risk prostate cancer and its metastatic risk, and to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the predictive model. In the train set, 30/40 (75%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer and 10/40 (25%) patients had low-to-moderate-risk prostate cancer; in the test set, 8/10 (80%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer while 2/10 (20%) had low-intermediate risk prostate cancer. The univariate logistic regression model established with SUVmax, iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA could all effectively predict high-risk prostate cancer; the AUC of ROC were 0.843, 0.802 and 0.900, respectively. Based on the test set, the sensitivity and specificity of each model were 87.5% and 50% for SUVmax, 62.5% and 100% for iPSMA-TV, and 87.5% and 100% for iTL-PSMA, respectively. The iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA-based predictive model could predict the metastatic risk of prostate cancer, the AUC of ROC was 0.863 and 0.848, respectively, but the SUVmax-based prediction model could not predict metastatic risk. Semi-quantitative analysis indexes of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT imaging can be used as "imaging biomarkers" to predict risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer.

A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of Human Space Missions for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merrill, Robin L.; Thomas, Gretchen A.

2003-01-01

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.

A continuing HIV epidemic and differential patterns of HIV-STI risk among MSM in Quito, Ecuador: an urgent need to scale up HIV testing and prevention.

PubMed

Jacobson, Jerry O; Sánchez-Gómez, Amaya; Montoya, Orlando; Soria, Efrain; Tarupi, Wilmer; Chiriboga Urquizo, Marcelo; Champutiz Ortiz, Eliana; Miranda, Sonia Morales; Tobar, Rodrigo; Gómez, Bertha; Riera, Celia

2014-01-01

This study characterized the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Quito, Ecuador and contrasted risk patterns with other STI's. 416 MSM ages 15 years and older were recruited using respondent-driven sampling in 2010-2011. Biological testing and a self-interview survey assessed HIV and STI infections and risk behaviors. Analysis incorporated recruiter-level variables and clustering adjustments to control for recruitment patterns. We identify high levels of HIV (11 %), HSV-2 (14 %) and active syphilis (5.5 %) infections, low levels of lifetime HIV testing (57 %), limited knowledge of HIV and STI's (<48 %) and limited consistent condom use independent of partner type (<40 %). Sex work was associated with all infections while associations with residential location, how casual partners are met and other variables, varied. Scale-up of behavioral prevention and HIV testing is urgently needed. Interventions should target male sex workers and exploit differential patterns of HIV-STI risk to stay ahead of the epidemic.

Public perception of blue-algae bloom risk in Hongze Lake of China.

PubMed

Huang, Lei; Sun, Kai; Ban, Jie; Bi, Jun

2010-05-01

In this work we characterize the public perception of one kind of ecological risk-blue-algae bloom in Hongze Lake, China, based on the psychometric paradigm method. In the first survey of May 2008, 300 respondents of Sihong County adjacent to Hongze Lake were investigated, with a total of 156 questionnaires returned. Then in a second survey of July 2008, 500 respondents from the same research area were investigated, with 318 questionnaires collected. This research firstly attempted to explore the local respondents' degree of concern regarding ecological changes to Hongze Lake in the last ten years. Secondly, to explore the public perception of blue-algae bloom compared to three typical kinds of hazards including earthquake, nuclear power and public traffic. T-test was used to examine the difference of risk perception in these four hazards over time. The third part of this research, with demographic analysis and nonparametric statistical test, predicted the different groups of respondents' willingness to accept (WTA) risk of blue-algae bloom in two surveys. Using multiple linear regression analysis, the risk perception model explained 28.3% of variance in the WTA blue-algae bloom risk. The variables of Knowledge, Social effect, Benefit, Controllability and Trust in government were significantly correlated with WTA, which implied that these variables were the main influencing factors explaining the respondents' willingness to accept risk. The results would help the Chinese government to comprehend the public's risk perception of the lake ecosystem, inducing well designed communication of risks with public and making effective mitigation policies to improve people's rational risk judgment.

[Suicide risk factors in the professional military personnel in the Army of Serbia].

PubMed

Dedić, Gordana; Panić, Milivoje

2010-04-01

Recognition of suicide risk factors is important in taking adequate suicide preventive measures, Suicide Prevention Program for Professional Military Personnel (PMP) implemented in the Army of Serbia in 2003. The aim of our study was to establish suicide risk factors in PMP of the Army of Serbia. Analysis of suicide risk factors in PMP was carried out on the basis of data obtained by psychological suicide autopsy. The controls were demographically similar psychiatric outpatients with no history of suicidal behaviour. A descriptive statistics method was used for risk factors analysis. The t-test was used for testing statistical hypotheses. A total of 30 PMP, aged 22-49 years (30.53 +/- 6.24 on average) committed suicide within the period 1998-2007. Distal suicide risk factors in PMP were considered to be not being married, psychiatric heredity, having no outpatient psychiatric treatment, gambling, regular physical practice (bodybuilding), less transfer to a different post, low motivation for military service (p < 0.001), not having children, parental loss in early childhood, alcohol abuse (p < 0.005), low salary (p < 0.01) uncompleted military school, debts in the family (p < 0.05). The commonest proximal suicide risk factors were: actual family problems (36.6%), actual mental problems (13.3%), burnout (13.3%), negative balance of accounts (13.3%), professional problems (6.7%), behavioral model while for 10.0% PMP suicide risk factors could not be established. According to the presence of multiple suicide risk factors, Suicide Prevention Program for PMP in the Army of Serbia is directed to the prevention of both proximal and distal suicide risk factors.

A Spanish-Language Risk Perception Survey for Developing Diabetes: Translation Process and Assessment of Psychometric Properties.

PubMed

Joiner, Kevin L; Sternberg, Rosa Maria; Kennedy, Christine; Chen, Jyu-Lin; Fukuoka, Yoshimi; Janson, Susan L

2016-12-01

Create a Spanish-language version of the Risk Perception Survey for Developing Diabetes (RPS-DD) and assess psychometric properties. The Spanish-language version was created through translation, harmonization, and presentation to the tool's original author. It was field tested in a foreignborn Latino sample and properties evaluated in principal components analysis. Personal Control, Optimistic Bias, and Worry multi-item Likert subscale responses did not cluster together. A clean solution was obtained after removing two Personal Control subscale items. Neither the Personal Disease Risk scale nor the Environmental Health Risk scale responses loaded onto single factors. Reliabilities ranged from .54 to .88. Test of knowledge performance varied by item. This study contributes to evidence of validation of a Spanish-language RPS-DD in foreign-born Latinos.

[Consumption of psychoactive drugs and exposure to bacterial toxins carried by food: a dangerous association].

PubMed

Corma-Gómez, Anaïs; López-Sepúlveda, Rocío; Capitán-Del Río, Inés; Sánchez Mariscal, María Dolores; López-Hernández, Begoña

2017-11-01

To describe and analyse from a clinical and epidemiological point of view, a food borne outbreak in a psychiatric institution in Granada, in 2015, and to examine whether treatment with psychoactive drugs constitutes a risk factor for the development of a food borne disease, analysing the degree of susceptibility according to the therapeutic group consumed. Ambispective cohort study. Residents were the unit of analysis. Our group carried out an active case search and a food survey. A search for other risks was developed as well as a food inspection. Location, time and individual variables were studied. A descriptive analysis was conducted (absolute and relative frequencies). Calculation of attack rates by building and by menu was made. Bi-variant analysis (Chi-square test, t-Student test) and relative risk were used as a measure of strength of association. For risk analysis of medication, a multivariate analysis using logistic regression was carried out. 18 cases with diarrhoea without fever were found (incubation period from 6 to 16hours). Cases were mild and self-limiting. The clinical manifestations, the temporal grouping of cases and the characteristics of the ingested foods, focussed suspicion on a bacterial toxin. Being equal in the rest of variables, the N03AF, and N03AG therapeutic groups confer greater risk of disease (odds ratio [OR]: 8.626; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 2.050-36.308; p=0.003; and OR: 14.516; 95%CI: 3.155-66.784; p=0.001, respectively). Decreased intestinal transit, caused by the administration of anticonvulsants, may increase exposure time of the intestinal mucosa to the toxin, increasing the risk of disease and suffering from complications. An additional hygienic effort should be made in this type of institution to prevent these pathologies. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Structural Analysis Made 'NESSUSary'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

Everywhere you look, chances are something that was designed and tested by a computer will be in plain view. Computers are now utilized to design and test just about everything imaginable, from automobiles and airplanes to bridges and boats, and elevators and escalators to streets and skyscrapers. Computer-design engineering first emerged in the 1970s, in the automobile and aerospace industries. Since computers were in their infancy, however, architects and engineers during the time were limited to producing only designs similar to hand-drafted drawings. (At the end of 1970s, a typical computer-aided design system was a 16-bit minicomputer with a price tag of $125,000.) Eventually, computers became more affordable and related software became more sophisticated, offering designers the "bells and whistles" to go beyond the limits of basic drafting and rendering, and venture into more skillful applications. One of the major advancements was the ability to test the objects being designed for the probability of failure. This advancement was especially important for the aerospace industry, where complicated and expensive structures are designed. The ability to perform reliability and risk assessment without using extensive hardware testing is critical to design and certification. In 1984, NASA initiated the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project at Glenn Research Center to develop analysis methods and computer programs for the probabilistic structural analysis of select engine components for current Space Shuttle and future space propulsion systems. NASA envisioned that these methods and computational tools would play a critical role in establishing increased system performance and durability, and assist in structural system qualification and certification. Not only was the PSAM project beneficial to aerospace, it paved the way for a commercial risk- probability tool that is evaluating risks in diverse, down- to-Earth application

Advanced age, cardiovascular risk burden, and timed up and go test performance in Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L; Müller, Martijn L T M; Koeppe, Robert A; Studenski, Stephanie; Frey, Kirk A; Bohnen, Nicolaas I

2014-12-01

Cardiovascular comorbidities are a known risk factor for impaired mobility in elderly individuals. Motor impairments in Parkinson disease are conventionally ascribed to nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation although progressive gait and balance impairments become more common with aging and often show limited response to dopaminergic replacement therapies. We explored the association between elevated cardiovascular risk factors and performance on the Timed Up and Go test in cross-sectional of Parkinson disease subjects (n = 83). Cardiovascular risk factor status was estimated using the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease risk-scoring algorithm in order to dichotomize the cohort into those with and without elevated modifiable cardiovascular risk compared with normative scores for age and gender. All subjects underwent clinical and neuroimaging evaluations including a 3-m Timed Up and Go test, [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine positron emission tomography imaging to estimate nigrostriatal dopamine terminal loss, and an magnetic resonance imaging assessment of leukoaraiosis. A similar analysis was performed in 49 healthy controls. After adjusting for disease duration, leukoaraiosis, and nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation, Parkinson disease subjects with elevated Framingham risk scores (n = 61) displayed slower Timed Up and Go test performance (β = 1.86, t = 2.41, p = .018) compared with subjects with normal range Framingham risk scores (n = 22). When age ≥65 was added to the model in a post hoc analysis, the strength of effect seen with older age (β = 1.51, t = 2.44, p = .017) was similar to that of elevated Framingham risk scoring (β = 1.87, t = 2.51, p = .014). In a multivariable regression model studying the healthy control population, advanced age (t = 2.15, p = .037) was a significant predictor of Timed Up and Go speed though striatal [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine (t = -1.30, p = .19) and elevated Framingham risk scores (t = 1.32, p = .19) were not. Modifiable cardiovascular risk factors and older age may independently exacerbate balance-related disability in Parkinson disease and may exert additive or synergistic pathological effects. The pathophysiology of these impairments cannot be explained completely by nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation or leukoaraiosis burden and may relate to systemic factors seen with accelerated aging. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Patterns of Relationships between Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Neurocognitive Function in African Americans

PubMed Central

Sims, Regina; Madhere, Serge; Callender, Clive; Campbell, Alfonso

2013-01-01

Objective The association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and neurocognitive function has gathered a good deal of attention in the health and social science literature; however, the relationship among several CVD risk factors and neurocognitive function has not been fully explored in an African American sample. The purpose of this study was to examine the pattern of relationships among four CVD risk factors and five measures of higher cortical functions. Methods Data were collected from a sample of 106 African American community-dwelling adults in the metropolitan Washington, DC, area. A nurse collected blood pressure, waist circumference, and a blood sample (to assess triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol) from study participants. Participants completed the Symbol Digit Modalities Test, Trailmaking B, Stroop Colorword Task, California Verbal Learning Test-II, and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test as assessments of neurocognitive function. Canonical analysis and multiple regression analysis were the major statistical methods utilized to assess relationships between CVD risk factors and neurocognitive function. Results The results suggest that 1) attentional processes are associated with diastolic blood pressure levels, 2) verbal learning processes are associated with diastolic blood pressure and triglyceride levels, and 3) the ability to shift cognitive set is associated with HDL cholesterol levels. Conclusion As cardiovascular health worsens in our society, particularly among ethnic minorities, the neurocognitive consequences must be clearly understood. Future studies should focus on identifying and building awareness of cardiovascular and neurocognitive links through longitudinal research designs and brain imaging technology. PMID:19157252

The value of a registry negative urine pregnancy test for the prediction of a future unintended pregnancy among young women.

PubMed

Rottenstreich, Misgav; Grisaru-Granovsky, Sorina; Rottenstreich, Amihai

2018-06-01

Performance of urine pregnancy test in general adolescents' clinic reflects caregiver or woman's concern that there might be a pregnancy. We aimed to assess whether young-unmarried women in whom a negative urine pregnancy test was registered would be at increased risk of a future unintended pregnancy. The study cohort included consecutive women drafted by the Israeli military between 2013 and 2015. The risk of unintended pregnancy was compared between women with a negative urine pregnancy test (n = 2774), the study group, and those in whom urine pregnancy test was not carried out (n = 126,659), the control group. During the study period, 2147 (1.7%) women experienced an unintended pregnancy. The risk of unintended pregnancy was significantly higher in patients in whom a past pregnancy test was negative 4.3% (n = 118), as compared with the control group 1.6% (n = 2028) (odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.23-3.26). In multivariate analysis history of a negative pregnancy test results was an independent predictor for a future unintended pregnancy (adjusted OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.63-2.52). A history of a negative pregnancy test among young conscripted women is a significant risk indicator for a future unintended pregnancy. Directed efforts should be made in this particular vulnerable group of patients.

Sex differences in perceived risk and testing experience of HIV in an urban fishing setting in Ghana.

PubMed

Yawson, Alfred E; Appiah, Labi K; Yawson, Anita O; Bonsu, George; Aluze-Ele, Simon; Amanhyia, Nana A K Owusu; Lartey, Margaret; Adjei, Andrew A; Lawson, Aaron L; Beckwith, Curt; Kwara, Awewura; Flanigan, Timothy

2014-11-15

Understanding sex differences in willingness to test and testing experience could aid the design of focus interventions to enhance uptake and engagement with care, treatment and support services. This study determined differences in perceived risk of acquiring HIV, willingness to test and HIV testing experience in an urban fishing community. A cross-sectional community survey was conducted in 2013 among men and women in two fishing communities (Chorkor and James Town) in Accra. In all, 554 subjects (≥ 18 years) were involved, 264 in Chorkor and 290 in James Town. Data on demographic characteristics, perceived risk for HIV and willingness to test for HIV and testing experience were collected with a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and Chi square test were used for the analysis at 95% significant level, using SPSS version 21. Of 554 subjects, 329 (59.4%) were females, and median age was 32 years. Overall, only 91(40.4%) men and 118(35.9%) women perceived themselves to be at risk of acquiring HIV. A significant proportion of women were willing to test for HIV compared to men (86.3% vs. 80.0%, P = 0.048). Women were more likely to have ever tested for HIV compared to men (42.2% vs. 28.6%, P = 0.001) and more women had tested within 12 months prior to survey than men (49.6% vs. 40.6%, P = 0.230). Of the number who had tested for HIV infection, a higher proportion of men tested voluntarily 42(65.6%), while a higher proportion of women tested as part of healthcare service received 96(69.1%); (P = 0.001; indicating women vs. men). Sex differences in risk perception and willingness to test need more focused public education and behaviour change communication strategies to achieve high coverage. Community-based strategies could improve HIV testing among men whilst more access to testing in health settings should be available to women in these communities.

Sagittal Plane Hip, Knee, and Ankle Biomechanics and the Risk of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Leppänen, Mari; Pasanen, Kati; Krosshaug, Tron; Kannus, Pekka; Vasankari, Tommi; Kujala, Urho M.; Bahr, Roald; Perttunen, Jarmo; Parkkari, Jari

2017-01-01

Background: Stiff landings with less knee flexion and high vertical ground-reaction forces have been shown to be associated with an increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. The literature on the association between other sagittal plane measures and the risk of ACL injuries with a prospective study design is lacking. Purpose: To investigate the relationship between selected sagittal plane hip, knee, and ankle biomechanics and the risk of ACL injury in young female team-sport athletes. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 171 female basketball and floorball athletes (age range, 12-21 years) participated in a vertical drop jump test using 3-dimensional motion analysis. All new ACL injuries, as well as match and training exposure data, were recorded for 1 to 3 years. Biomechanical variables, including hip and ankle flexion at initial contact (IC), hip and ankle ranges of motion (ROMs), and peak external knee and hip flexion moments, were selected for analysis. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. The combined sensitivity and specificity of significant test variables were assessed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: A total of 15 noncontact ACL injuries were recorded during follow-up (0.2 injuries/1000 player-hours). Of the variables investigated, landing with less hip flexion ROM (HR for each 10° increase in hip ROM, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.38-0.99]; P < .05) and a greater knee flexion moment (HR for each 10-N·m increase in knee moment, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.04-1.40]; P = .01) was significantly associated with an increased risk of ACL injury. Hip flexion at IC, ankle flexion at IC, ankle flexion ROM, and peak external hip flexion moment were not significantly associated with the risk of ACL injury. ROC curve analysis for significant variables showed an area under the curve of 0.6, indicating a poor combined sensitivity and specificity of the test. Conclusion: Landing with less hip flexion ROM and a greater peak external knee flexion moment was associated with an increased risk of ACL injury in young female team-sport players. Studies with larger populations are needed to confirm these findings and to determine the role of ankle flexion ROM as a risk factor for ACL injury. Increasing knee and hip flexion ROMs to produce soft landings might reduce knee loading and risk of ACL injury in young female athletes. PMID:29318174

The RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk: a meta-analysis based on 12 case-control studies.

PubMed

Du, Shu-Li; Geng, Ting-Ting; Feng, Tian; Chen, Cui-Ping; Jin, Tian-Bo; Chen, Chao

2014-01-01

The association between the RTEL1 rs6010620 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and glioma risk has been extensively studied. However, the results remain inconclusive. To further examine this association, we performed a meta-analysis. A computerized search of the PubMed and Embase databases for publications regarding the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma cancer risk was performed. Genotype data were analyzed in a meta-analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to assess the association. Sensitivity analyses, tests of heterogeneity, cumulative meta-analyses, and assessments of bias were performed in our meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis confirmed that risk with allele A is lower than with allele G for glioma. The A allele of rs6010620 in RTEL1 decreased the risk of developing glioma in the 12 case-control studies for all genetic models: the allele model (OR=0.752, 95%CI: 0.715-0.792), the dominant model (OR=0.729, 95%CI: 0.685-0.776), the recessive model (OR=0.647, 95%CI: 0.569-0.734), the homozygote comparison (OR=0.528, 95%CI: 0.456-0.612), and the heterozygote comparison (OR=0.761, 95%CI: 0.713-0.812). In all genetic models, the association between the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk was significant. This meta-analysis suggests that the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism may be a risk factor for glioma. Further functional studies evaluating this polymorphism and glioma risk are warranted.

Using software security analysis to verify the secure socket layer (SSL) protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, John D.

2004-01-01

nal Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have tens of thousands of networked computer systems and applications. Software Security vulnerabilities present risks such as lost or corrupted data, information the3, and unavailability of critical systems. These risks represent potentially enormous costs to NASA. The NASA Code Q research initiative 'Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach '' offers, among its capabilities, formal verification of software security properties, through the use of model based verification (MBV) to address software security risks. [1,2,3,4,5,6] MBV is a formal approach to software assurance that combines analysis of software, via abstract models, with technology, such as model checkers, that provide automation of the mechanical portions of the analysis process. This paper will discuss: The need for formal analysis to assure software systems with respect to software and why testing alone cannot provide it. The means by which MBV with a Flexible Modeling Framework (FMF) accomplishes the necessary analysis task. An example of FMF style MBV in the verification of properties over the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) communication protocol as a demonstration.

The use of pre-test and post-test probability values as criteria before selecting patients to undergo coronary angiography in patients who have ischemic findings on myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

PubMed

Karahan Şen, Nazlı Pınar; Bekiş, Recep; Ceylan, Ali; Derebek, Erkan

2016-07-01

Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) is a diagnostic test which is frequently used in the diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD). MPS is generally interpreted as ischemia present or absent; however, it has a power in predicting the disease, similar to other diagnostic tests. In this study, we aimed to assist in directing the high-risk patients to undergo coronary angiography (CA) primarily by evaluating patients without prior CHD history with pre-test and post-test probabilities. The study was designed as a retrospective study. Between January 2008 and July 2011, 139 patients with positive MPS results and followed by CA recently (<6 months) were evaluated from patient files. Patients' pre-test probabilities based on the Diamond and Forrester method and the likelihood ratios that were obtained from the literature were used to calculate the patients' post exercise and post-MPS probabilities. Patients were evaluated in risk groups as low, intermediate, and high, and an ROC curve analysis was performed for the post-MPS probabilities. Coronary artery stenosis (CAS) was determined in 59 patients (42.4%). A significant difference was determined between the risk groups according to CAS, both for the pre-test and post-test probabilities (p<0.001, p=0.024). The ROC analysis provided a cut-off value of 80.4% for post- MPS probability in predicting CAS with 67.9% sensitivity and 77.8% specificity. When the post-MPS probability is ≥80% in patients who have reversible perfusion defects on MPS, we suggest interpreting the MPS as "high probability positive" to improve the selection of true-positive patients to undergo CA, and these patients should be primarily recommended CA.

The use of pre-test and post-test probability values as criteria before selecting patients to undergo coronary angiography in patients who have ischemic findings on myocardial perfusion scintigraphy

PubMed Central

Şen, Nazlı Pınar Karahan; Bekiş, Recep; Ceylan, Ali; Derebek, Erkan

2016-01-01

Objective: Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) is a diagnostic test which is frequently used in the diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD). MPS is generally interpreted as ischemia present or absent; however, it has a power in predicting the disease, similar to other diagnostic tests. In this study, we aimed to assist in directing the high-risk patients to undergo coronary angiography (CA) primarily by evaluating patients without prior CHD history with pre-test and post-test probabilities. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective study. Between January 2008 and July 2011, 139 patients with positive MPS results and followed by CA recently (<6 months) were evaluated from patient files. Patients’ pre-test probabilities based on the Diamond and Forrester method and the likelihood ratios that were obtained from the literature were used to calculate the patients’ post-exercise and post-MPS probabilities. Patients were evaluated in risk groups as low, intermediate, and high, and an ROC curve analysis was performed for the post-MPS probabilities. Results: Coronary artery stenosis (CAS) was determined in 59 patients (42.4%). A significant difference was determined between the risk groups according to CAS, both for the pre-test and post-test probabilities (p<0.001, p=0.024). The ROC analysis provided a cut-off value of 80.4% for post-MPS probability in predicting CAS with 67.9% sensitivity and 77.8% specificity. Conclusion: When the post-MPS probability is ≥80% in patients who have reversible perfusion defects on MPS, we suggest interpreting the MPS as “high probability positive” to improve the selection of true-positive patients to undergo CA, and these patients should be primarily recommended CA. PMID:27004704

Construct validity of the Heart Failure Screening Tool (Heart-FaST) to identify heart failure patients at risk of poor self-care: Rasch analysis.

PubMed

Reynolds, Nicholas A; Ski, Chantal F; McEvedy, Samantha M; Thompson, David R; Cameron, Jan

2018-02-14

The aim of this study was to psychometrically evaluate the Heart Failure Screening Tool (Heart-FaST) via: (1) examination of internal construct validity; (2) testing of scale function in accordance with design; and (3) recommendation for change/s, if items are not well adjusted, to improve psychometric credential. Self-care is vital to the management of heart failure. The Heart-FaST may provide a prospective assessment of risk, regarding the likelihood that patients with heart failure will engage in self-care. Psychometric validation of the Heart-FaST using Rasch analysis. The Heart-FaST was administered to 135 patients (median age = 68, IQR = 59-78 years; 105 males) enrolled in a multidisciplinary heart failure management program. The Heart-FaST is a nurse-administered tool for screening patients with HF at risk of poor self-care. A Rasch analysis of responses was conducted which tested data against Rasch model expectations, including whether items serve as unbiased, non-redundant indicators of risk and measure a single construct and that rating scales operate as intended. The results showed that data met Rasch model expectations after rescoring or deleting items due to poor discrimination, disordered thresholds, differential item functioning, or response dependence. There was no evidence of multidimensionality which supports the use of total scores from Heart-FaST as indicators of risk. Aggregate scores from this modified screening tool rank heart failure patients according to their "risk of poor self-care" demonstrating that the Heart-FaST items constitute a meaningful scale to identify heart failure patients at risk of poor engagement in heart failure self-care. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A risk/cost analysis of alternative screening intervals for occupational tuberculosis infection.

PubMed

Nicas, M

1998-02-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that new health care employees receive a baseline skin test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) infection and that testing be repeated periodically. However, CDC does not explain the quantitative basis for its suggested screening intervals. This article examines the efficacy of alternative screening intervals for workers subject to different annual rates of M. tb infection and estimates the costs. An equation is developed for the cumulative risk of tuberculosis (TB) at 12 years given a specified annual rate of infection (ARI), screening interval, and a combined proportion (p) of successful skin testing and antibiotic prophylaxis. Equations for total cost of screening and cost per disease case prevented are provided. Results assume: (a) costs of $10 per skin test and $10,000 per TB disease case; (b) p = 0.88; and (c) and acceptable cumulative TB risk of 1 per 1000. For ARIs that might be deemed low (0.2% to 0.5%) and medium (1%), CDC screening intervals of 12 months and 6-12 months, respectively, minimize the cost per disease case prevented but permit residual disease risks greater than 1 per 1000. Recommended screening intervals are (i) 6 months for low-risk employee groups and (ii) 3 months for medium- and high-risk (e.g., ARIs of > or = 5%) groups. Interval (i) limits risk to 1 per 1000 and is approximately 50% shorter than the CDC interval for a low-risk group. Interval (ii), which is 67% shorter than the CDC interval for medium-risk groups but equal to that recommended for high-risk groups, permits a risk above 1 per 1000, but is likely the shortest feasible interval.

Influence of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum on risk avoidance in addiction: a mediation analysis.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Dorothy J; Woo, Choong-Wan; Wager, Tor D; Regner, Michael F; Tanabe, Jody

2015-04-01

Alterations in frontal and striatal function are hypothesized to underlie risky decision making in drug users, but how these regions interact to affect behavior is incompletely understood. We used mediation analysis to investigate how prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum together influence risk avoidance in abstinent drug users. Thirty-seven abstinent substance-dependent individuals (SDI) and 43 controls underwent fMRI while performing a decision-making task involving risk and reward. Analyses of a priori regions-of-interest tested whether activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and ventral striatum (VST) explained group differences in risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis was conducted to identify brain regions influencing the negative VST-risk avoidance relationship. Right DLPFC (RDLPFC) positively mediated the group-risk avoidance relationship (p < 0.05); RDLPFC activity was higher in SDI and predicted higher risk avoidance across groups, controlling for SDI vs. Conversely, VST activity negatively influenced risk avoidance (p < 0.05); it was higher in SDI, and predicted lower risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis revealed that, across group, RDLPFC and left temporal-parietal junction positively (p ≤ 0.001) while right thalamus and left middle frontal gyrus negatively (p < 0.005) mediated the VST activity-risk avoidance relationship. RDLPFC activity mediated less risky decision making while VST mediated more risky decision making across drug users and controls. These results suggest a dual pathway underlying decision making, which, if imbalanced, may adversely influence choices involving risk. Modeling contributions of multiple brain systems to behavior through mediation analysis could lead to a better understanding of mechanisms of behavior and suggest neuromodulatory treatments for addiction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum on risk avoidance in addiction: a mediation analysis*

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Dorothy J.; Woo, Choong-Wan; Wager, Tor D.; Regner, Michael F.; Tanabe, Jody

2015-01-01

Background Alterations in frontal and striatal function are hypothesized to underlie risky decision-making in drug users, but how these regions interact to affect behavior is incompletely understood. We used mediation analysis to investigate how prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum together influence risk avoidance in abstinent drug users. Method Thirty-seven abstinent substance-dependent individuals (SDI) and 43 controls underwent fMRI while performing a decision-making task involving risk and reward. Analyses of a priori regions-of-interest tested whether activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and ventral striatum (VST) explained group differences in risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis was conducted to identify brain regions influencing the negative VST-risk avoidance relationship. Results Right DLPFC (RDLPFC) positively mediated the group-risk avoidance relationship (p < 0.05); RDLPFC activity was higher in SDI and predicted higher risk avoidance across groups, controlling for SDI vs. controls. Conversely, VST activity negatively influenced risk avoidance (p < 0.05); it was higher in SDI, and predicted lower risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis revealed that, across group, RDLPFC and left temporal-parietal junction positively (p ≤ 0.001) while right thalamus and left middle frontal gyrus negatively (p < 0.005) mediated the VST activity-risk avoidance relationship. Conclusion RDLPFC activity mediated less risky decision-making while VST mediated more risky decision-making across drug users and controls. These results suggest a dual pathway underlying decision-making, which, if imbalanced, may adversely influence choices involving risk. Modeling contributions of multiple brain systems to behavior through mediation analysis could lead to a better understanding of mechanisms of behavior and suggest neuromodulatory treatments for addiction. PMID:25736619

Lower risk taking and exploratory behavior in alcohol-preferring sP rats than in alcohol non-preferring sNP rats in the multivariate concentric square field (MCSF) test.

PubMed

Roman, Erika; Colombo, Giancarlo

2009-12-14

The present investigation continues previous behavioral profiling studies of selectively bred alcohol-drinking and alcohol non-drinking rats. In this study, alcohol-naïve adult Sardinian alcohol-preferring (sP) and non-preferring (sNP) rats were tested in the multivariate concentric square field (MCSF) test. The MCSF test has an ethoexperimental approach and measures general activity, exploration, risk assessment, risk taking, and shelter seeking in laboratory rodents. The multivariate design enables behavioral profiling in one and the same test situation. Age-matched male Wistar rats were included as a control group. Five weeks after the first MCSF trial, a repeated testing was done to explore differences in acquired experience. The results revealed distinct differences in exploratory strategies and behavioral profiles between sP and sNP rats. The sP rats were characterized by lower activity, lower exploratory drive, higher risk assessment, and lower risk taking behavior than in sNP rats. In the repeated trial, risk-taking behavior was almost abolished in sP rats. When comparing the performance of sP and sNP rats with that of Wistar rats, the principal component analysis revealed that the sP rats were the most divergent group. The vigilant behavior observed in sP rats with low exploratory drive and low risk-taking behavior is interpreted here as high innate anxiety-related behaviors and may be related to their propensity for high voluntary alcohol intake and preference. We suggest that the different lines of alcohol-preferring rats with different behavioral characteristics constitute valuable animal models that mimic the heterogeneity in human alcohol dependence.

Genetic Testing and Post-Testing Decision Making among BRCA-Positive Mutation Women: A Psychosocial Approach.

PubMed

Hesse-Biber, Sharlene; An, Chen

2016-10-01

Through an analysis of an online survey of women who tested positive for the BRCA genetic mutation for breast cancer, this research uses a social constructionist and feminist standpoint lens to understand the decision-making process that leads BRCA-positive women to choose genetic testing. Additionally, this research examines how they socially construct and understand their risk for developing breast cancer, as well as which treatment options they undergo post-testing. BRCA-positive women re-frame their statistical medical risk for developing cancer and their post-testing treatment choices through a broad psychosocial context of engagement that also includes their social networks. Important psychosocial factors drive women's medical decisions, such as individual feelings of guilt and vulnerability, and the degree of perceived social support. Women who felt guilty and fearful that they might pass the BRCA gene to their children were more likely to undergo risk reducing surgery. Women with at least one daughter and women without children were more inclined toward the risk reducing surgery compared to those with only sons. These psychosocial factors and social network engagements serve as a "nexus of decision making" that does not, for the most part, mirror the medical assessments of statistical odds for hereditary cancer development, nor the specific treatment protocols outlined by the medical establishment.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hua, Xiaoli; Yu, Lili; You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68-0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50-0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58-0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71-1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger's test (p = 0.26). This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Background Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. Methods We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Results Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50–0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58–0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71–1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger’s test (p = 0.26). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted. PMID:26960146

Comparison between urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and urine protein dipstick testing for prevalence and ability to predict the risk for chronic kidney disease in the general population (Iwate-KENCO study): a prospective community-based cohort study.

PubMed

Koeda, Yorihiko; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Segawa, Toshie; Ohta, Mutsuko; Ohsawa, Masaki; Tanno, Kozo; Makita, Shinji; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Omama, Shin-Ichi; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Okayama, Akira; Nakamura, Motoyuki

2016-05-12

This study compared the combination of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) vs. eGFR and urine protein reagent strip testing to determine chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence, and each method's ability to predict the risk for cardiovascular events in the general Japanese population. Baseline data including eGFR, UACR, and urine dipstick tests were obtained from the general population (n = 22 975). Dipstick test results (negative, trace, positive) were allocated to three levels of UACR (<30, 30-300, >300), respectively. In accordance with Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes CKD prognosis heat mapping, the cohort was classified into four risk grades (green: grade 1; yellow: grade 2; orange: grade 3, red: grade 4) based on baseline eGFR and UACR levels or dipstick tests. During the mean follow-up period of 5.6 years, 708 new onset cardiovascular events were recorded. For CKD identified by eGFR and dipstick testing (dipstick test ≥ trace and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), the incidence of CKD was found to be 9 % in the general population. In comparison to non-CKD (grade 1), although cardiovascular risk was significantly higher in risk grades ≥3 (relative risk (RR) = 1.70; 95 % CI: 1.28-2.26), risk predictive ability was not significant in risk grade 2 (RR = 1.20; 95 % CI: 0.95-1.52). When CKD was defined by eGFR and UACR (UACR ≥30 mg/g Cr and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), prevalence was found to be 29 %. Predictive ability in risk grade 2 (RR = 1.41; 95 % CI: 1.19-1.66) and risk grade ≥3 (RR = 1.76; 95 % CI: 1.37-2.28) were both significantly greater than for non-CKD. Reclassification analysis showed a significant improvement in risk predictive abilities when CKD risk grading was based on UACR rather than on dipstick testing in this population (p < 0.001). Although prevalence of CKD was higher when detected by UACR rather than urine dipstick testing, the predictive ability for cardiovascular events from UACR-based risk grading was superior to that of dipstick-based risk grading in the general population.

Are iso-osmolar, as compared to low-osmolar, contrast media cost-effective in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization? An economic analysis.

PubMed

Hiremath, Swapnil; Akbari, Ayub; Wells, George A; Chow, Benjamin J W

2018-04-23

Contrast-induced acute kidney injury is a prominent complication following cardiac catheterization, though the risk has progressively decreased in recent times with appropriate risk stratification and use of safer contrast agents. Despite data supporting further lowering of risk with the iso-osmolar agent, iodixanol, uptake has lagged, perhaps due to increased upfront cost of this agent. We undertook an economic analysis to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a strategy utilizing iodixanol compared to using a low-osmolar contrast agent. We created a Markov model to evaluate the two strategies, and included a differential relative risk of contrast-induced acute kidney injury, based on a systematic review of the literature. Downstream clinical events, including need for dialysis and mortality, were modeled using data from existing published literature. A third-party payer perspective was utilized for the analysis and presentation of the primary economic analysis. The strategy of using iodixanol dominated in both the low-risk and high-risk base case analyses. However, the difference was quite small in the low-risk scenario (lifetime cost: C$678,034 vs. C$678,059 and life expectancy: 19.80 vs. 19.72 years). The difference was more marked (life expectancy 15.65 vs. 14.15 years and cost C$680,989 vs. C$682,023) in the high-risk case analysis. This was robust across most of the variables tested in sensitivity analyses. The use of iodixanol, compared with low-osmolar contrast agents, for cardiac catheterization, results in a small benefit clinical outcomes, and in a savings in direct healthcare costs. Overall, our analysis supports the use of iodixanol for cardiac catheterization, especially in patients at high risk of acute kidney injury.

Gender Differences in HIV Risk Behaviors Among Persons Involved in the U.S. Criminal Justice System and Living with HIV or at Risk for HIV: A "Seek, Test, Treat, and Retain" Harmonization Consortium.

PubMed

Loeliger, Kelsey B; Biggs, Mary L; Young, Rebekah; Seal, David W; Beckwith, Curt G; Kuo, Irene; Gordon, Michael S; Altice, Frederick L; Ouellet, Lawrence J; Cunningham, William E; Young, Jeremy D; Springer, Sandra A

2017-10-01

The U.S. female criminal justice (CJ) population is rapidly growing, yet large-scale studies exploring gender-specific HIV risk behaviors in the CJ population are lacking. This analysis uses baseline data on adults with a CJ history from eight U.S. studies in an NIH-funded "Seek, Test, Treat, Retain" harmonization consortium. Data were collected using a standardized HIV risk behavior assessment tool and pooled across studies to describe participants' characteristics and risk behaviors. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to test for gender-based behavior differences. Among 784 HIV-positive (21.4% female) and 5521 HIV-negative (8.5% female) participants, HIV-positive women had higher odds than HIV-positive men of engaging in condomless sexual intercourse (AOR 1.84 [1.16-2.95]) with potentially sero-discordant partners (AOR 2.40 [1.41-4.09]) and of sharing injection equipment (AOR 3.36 [1.31-8.63]). HIV risk reduction interventions targeting CJ-involved women with HIV are urgently needed as this population may represent an under-recognized potential source of HIV transmission.

Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suter II, G.W.

2003-06-18

The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management.more » It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.« less

Pleiotropic analysis of cancer risk loci on esophageal adenocarcinoma risk

PubMed Central

Lee, Eunjung; Stram, Daniel O.; Ek, Weronica E.; Onstad, Lynn E; MacGregor, Stuart; Gharahkhani, Puya; Ye, Weimin; Lagergren, Jesper; Shaheen, Nicholas J.; Murray, Liam J.; Hardie, Laura J; Gammon, Marilie D.; Chow, Wong-Ho; Risch, Harvey A.; Corley, Douglas A.; Levine, David M; Whiteman, David C.; Bernstein, Leslie; Bird, Nigel C.; Vaughan, Thomas L.; Wu, Anna H.

2015-01-01

Background Several cancer-associated loci identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been associated with risks of multiple cancer sites, suggesting pleiotropic effects. We investigated whether GWAS-identified risk variants for other common cancers are associated with risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) or its precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE). Methods We examined the associations between risks of EA and BE and 387 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that have been associated with risks of other cancers, by using genotype imputation data on 2,163 control participants and 3,885 (1,501 EA and 2,384 BE) case patients from the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Genetic Susceptibility Study, and investigated effect modification by smoking history, body mass index (BMI), and reflux/heartburn. Results After correcting for multiple testing, none of the tested 387 SNPs were statistically significantly associated with risk of EA or BE. No evidence of effect modification by smoking, BMI, or reflux/heartburn was observed. Conclusions Genetic risk variants for common cancers identified from GWAS appear not to be associated with risks of EA or BE. Impact To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of pleiotropic genetic associations with risks of EA and BE. PMID:26364162

Application of Athletic Movement Tests that Predict Injury Risk in a Military Population: Development of Normative Data.

PubMed

Teyhen, Deydre S; Shaffer, Scott W; Butler, Robert J; Goffar, Stephen L; Kiesel, Kyle B; Rhon, Daniel I; Boyles, Robert E; McMillian, Daniel J; Williamson, Jared N; Plisky, Phillip J

2016-10-01

Performance on movement tests helps to predict injury risk in a variety of physically active populations. Understanding baseline measures for normal is an important first step. Determine differences in physical performance assessments and describe normative values for these tests based on military unit type. Assessment of power, balance, mobility, motor control, and performance on the Army Physical Fitness Test were assessed in a cohort of 1,466 soldiers. Analysis of variance was performed to compare the results based on military unit type (Rangers, Combat, Combat Service, and Combat Service Support) and analysis of covariance was performed to determine the influence of age and gender. Rangers performed the best on all performance and fitness measures (p < 0.05). Combat soldiers performed better than Combat Service and Service Support soldiers on several physical performance tests and the Army Physical Fitness Test (p < 0.05). Performance in Combat Service and Service Support soldiers was equivalent on most measures (p < 0.05). Functional performance and level of fitness varied significantly by military unit type. Understanding these differences will provide a foundation for future injury prediction and prevention strategies. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Dual skin tests with Mycobacterium avium sensitin and PPD to detect misdiagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection.

PubMed

Larson, E M; O'Donnell, M; Chamblee, S; Horsburgh, C R; Marsh, B J; Moreland, J D; Johnson, L S; von Reyn, C Fordham

2011-11-01

A positive tuberculin skin test (TST) may indicate cross-reacting immunity to non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) and not latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). To assess misclassification of LTBI, as assessed by skin testing with Mycobacterium avium sensitin (MaS), and to determine how this misclassification affects the analysis of risk factors for LTBI. In a population-based survey, participants underwent skin testing with M. tuberculosis purified protein derivative (PPD) and MaS. A PPD-dominant skin test was a reaction that was ≥ 3 mm larger than the MaS reaction; a MaS-dominant skin test was a reaction that was ≥ 3 mm larger than the PPD reaction. Of 447 randomly selected persons, 135 (30%) had a positive PPD test. Of these, 21 (16%) were MaS- dominant, and were therefore attributable to NTM and misclassified as LTBI. PPD reactions of 5-14 mm were more likely to be misclassified than those ≥ 15 mm (OR = 5.0, 95%CI 1.9-13.2). Adjusting for misclassification had only a small impact on the analysis of risk factors for LTBI. A substantial number of individuals who are diagnosed with LTBI are actually sensitized to NTM. Using dual skin testing would reduce misdiagnosis and prevent unnecessary treatment.

Options and Risk for Qualification of Electric Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Michelle; Daniel, Charles; Cook, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Electric propulsion vehicle systems envelop a wide range of propulsion alternatives including solar and nuclear, which present unique circumstances for qualification. This paper will address the alternatives for qualification of electric propulsion spacecraft systems. The approach taken will be to address the considerations for qualification at the various levels of systems definition. Additionally, for each level of qualification the system level risk implications will be developed. Also, the paper will explore the implications of analysis verses test for various levels of systems definition, while retaining the objectives of a verification program. The limitations of terrestrial testing will be explored along with the risk and implications of orbital demonstration testing. The paper will seek to develop a template for structuring of a verification program based on cost, risk and value return. A successful verification program should establish controls and define objectives of the verification compliance program. Finally the paper will seek to address the political and programmatic factors, which may impact options for system verification.

Identification of cognitive profiles among women considering BRCA1/2 testing through the utilisation of cluster analytic techniques.

PubMed

Roussi, Pagona; Sherman, Kerry A; Miller, Suzanne M; Hurley, Karen; Daly, Mary B; Godwin, Andrew; Buzaglo, Joanne S; Wen, Kuang-Yi

2011-10-01

Based on the cognitive-social health information processing model, we identified cognitive profiles of women at risk for breast and ovarian cancer. Prior to genetic counselling, participants (N = 171) completed a study questionnaire concerning their cognitive and affective responses to being at genetic risk. Using cluster analysis, four cognitive profiles were generated: (a) high perceived risk/low coping; (b) low value of screening/high expectancy of cancer; (c) moderate perceived risk/moderate efficacy of prevention/low informativeness of test result; and (d) high efficacy of prevention/high coping. The majority of women in Clusters One, Two and Three had no personal history of cancer, whereas Cluster Four consisted almost entirely of women affected with cancer. Women in Cluster One had the highest number of affected relatives and experienced higher levels of distress than women in the other three clusters. These results highlight the need to consider the psychological profile of women undergoing genetic testing when designing counselling interventions and messages.

Incorporating Truncating Variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM into the BOADICEA Breast Cancer Risk Model

PubMed Central

Lee, Andrew J.; Cunningham, Alex P.; Tischkowitz, Marc; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D.; Easton, Douglas F.; Antoniou, Antonis C.

2016-01-01

Purpose The proliferation of gene-panel testing precipitates the need for a breast cancer (BC) risk model that incorporates the effects of mutations in several genes and family history (FH). We extended the BOADICEA model to incorporate the effects of truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM. Methods The BC incidence was modelled via the explicit effects of truncating variants in BRCA1/2, PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM and other unobserved genetic effects using segregation analysis methods. Results The predicted average BC risk by age 80 for an ATM mutation carrier is 28%, 30% for CHEK2, 50% for PALB2, 74% for BRCA1 and BRCA2. However, the BC risks are predicted to increase with FH-burden. In families with mutations, predicted risks for mutation-negative members depend on both FH and the specific mutation. The reduction in BC risk after negative predictive-testing is greatest when a BRCA1 mutation is identified in the family, but for women whose relatives carry a CHEK2 or ATM mutation, the risks decrease slightly. Conclusions The model may be a valuable tool for counselling women who have undergone gene-panel testing for providing consistent risks and harmonizing their clinical management. A web-application can be used to obtain BC- risks in clinical practice (http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/). PMID:27464310

Incorporating truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM into the BOADICEA breast cancer risk model.

PubMed

Lee, Andrew J; Cunningham, Alex P; Tischkowitz, Marc; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D; Easton, Douglas F; Antoniou, Antonis C

2016-12-01

The proliferation of gene panel testing precipitates the need for a breast cancer (BC) risk model that incorporates the effects of mutations in several genes and family history (FH). We extended the BOADICEA model to incorporate the effects of truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM. The BC incidence was modeled via the explicit effects of truncating variants in BRCA1/2, PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM and other unobserved genetic effects using segregation analysis methods. The predicted average BC risk by age 80 for an ATM mutation carrier is 28%, 30% for CHEK2, 50% for PALB2, and 74% for BRCA1 and BRCA2. However, the BC risks are predicted to increase with FH burden. In families with mutations, predicted risks for mutation-negative members depend on both FH and the specific mutation. The reduction in BC risk after negative predictive testing is greatest when a BRCA1 mutation is identified in the family, but for women whose relatives carry a CHEK2 or ATM mutation, the risks decrease slightly. The model may be a valuable tool for counseling women who have undergone gene panel testing for providing consistent risks and harmonizing their clinical management. A Web application can be used to obtain BC risks in clinical practice (http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/).Genet Med 18 12, 1190-1198.

Online Sex Partner Meeting Venues as a Risk Factor for Testing HIV Positive Among a Community-Based Sample of Black Men Who Have Sex With Men.

PubMed

Eaton, Lisa A; Maksut, Jessica L; Gamarel, Kristi E; Siembida, Elizabeth J; Driffin, Daniel D; Baldwin, Robert

2016-06-01

In the United States, black men who have sex with men (BMSM) are disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic. The elevated estimates of HIV among BMSM suggest that to slow rates of HIV infections, a range of factors that may contribute to transmission must be researched. Use of online venues for seeking out sex partners is one such area that may further advance our understanding of risks for HIV among BMSM. Black men who have sex with men residing in Atlanta, GA, reporting HIV-negative/unknown status completed survey assessments and HIV antibody testing. Logistic regression using generalized linear modeling was used to conduct both bivariate and multivariable analyses of psychosocial variables-that is, substance use, sexually transmitted infection symptoms/diagnoses, sexual risk behavior, online sex partner meeting, and HIV test results. Two hundred thirty-two BMSM tested HIV negative and 39 BMSM tested HIV positive (14% new diagnoses). Reporting symptoms of a rectal sexually transmitted infection (odds ratio, 4.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-15.41) and use of sexual networking apps (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-4.36) were both associated with testing HIV positive in a multivariable analysis. The use of sexual networking apps is associated with risks for HIV infection above and beyond what is captured by sexual risk behavior alone. Evaluating how sexual networking apps affect sexual networks and social norms regarding sexual risk taking and HIV transmission is an important and novel area for HIV prevention and intervention development.

Prognostic value of exercise echocardiography: validation of a new risk index combining echocardiographic, treadmill, and exercise electrocardiographic parameters.

PubMed

Mazur, Wojciech; Rivera, Jose M; Khoury, Alexander F; Basu, Abhijeet G; Perez-Verdia, Alejandro; Marks, Gary F; Chang, Su Min; Olmos, Leopoldo; Quiñones, Miguel A; Zoghbi, William A

2003-04-01

Exercise (Ex) echocardiography has been shown to have significant prognostic power, independent of other known predictors of risk from an Ex stress test. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a risk index, incorporating echocardiographic and conventional Ex variables, for a more comprehensive risk stratification and identification of a very low-risk group. Two consecutive, mutually exclusive populations referred for treadmill Ex echocardiography with the Bruce protocol were investigated: hypothesis-generating (388 patients; 268 males; age 55 +/- 13 years) and hypothesis-testing (105 patients; 61 males age: 54 +/- 14 years).Cardiac events included cardiac death, myocardial infarction, late revascularization (>90 days), hospital admission for unstable angina, and admission for heart failure. Mean follow-up in the hypothesis-generating population was 3.1 years. There were 38 cardiac events. Independent predictors of events by multivariate analysis were: Ex wall motion score index (odds ratio [OR] = 2.77/Unit; P <.001); ischemic S-T depression > or = 1 mm (OR = 2.84; P =.002); and treadmill time (OR = 0.87/min; P =.037). A risk index was generated on the basis of the multivariate Cox regression model as: risk index = 1.02 (Ex wall motion score index) + 1.04 (S-T change) - 0.14 (treadmill time). The validity of this index was tested in the hypothesis-testing population. Event rates at 3 years were lowest (0%) in the lower quartile of risk index (-1.22 to -0.47), highest (29.6%) in the upper quartile (+0.66 to +2.02), and intermediate (19.2% to 15.3%) in the intermediate quartiles. The OR of the risk index for predicting cardiac events was 2.94/Unit ([95% confidence interval: 1.4 to 6.2]; P =.0043). Echocardiographic and Ex parameters are independent powerful predictors of cardiac events after treadmill stress testing. A risk index can be derived with these parameters for a more comprehensive risk stratification with Ex echocardiography.

Implementing an Internet-Delivered Skin Cancer Genetic Testing Intervention to Improve Sun Protection Behavior in a Diverse Population: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Zielaskowski, Kate; White, Kirsten AM; Rodríguez, Vivian M; Robers, Erika; Guest, Dolores D; Sussman, Andrew; Talamantes, Yvonne; Schwartz, Matthew R; Greb, Jennie; Bigney, Jessica; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Hunley, Keith; Buller, David B

2017-01-01

Background Limited translational genomic research currently exists to guide the availability, comprehension, and appropriate use of personalized genomics in diverse general population subgroups. Melanoma skin cancers are preventable, curable, common in the general population, and disproportionately increasing in Hispanics. Objective Variants in the melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) gene are present in approximately 50% of the population, are major factors in determining sun sensitivity, and confer a 2-to-3-fold increase in melanoma risk in the general population, even in populations with darker skin. Therefore, feedback regarding MC1R risk status may raise risk awareness and protective behavior in the general population. Methods We are conducting a randomized controlled trial examining Internet presentation of the risks and benefits of personalized genomic testing for MC1R gene variants that are associated with increased melanoma risk. We will enroll a total of 885 participants (462 participants are currently enrolled), who will be randomized 6:1 to personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk versus waiting list control. Control participants will be offered testing after outcome assessments. Participants will be balanced across self-reported Hispanic versus non-Hispanic ethnicity (n=750 in personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk arm; n=135 in control arm), and will be recruited from a general population cohort in Albuquerque, New Mexico, which is subject to year-round sun exposure. Baseline surveys will be completed in-person with study staff and follow-up measures will be completed via telephone. Results Aim 1 of the trial will examine the personal utility of personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk in terms of short-term (3-month) sun protection and skin screening behaviors, family and physician communication, and melanoma threat and control beliefs (ie, putative mediators of behavior change). We will also examine potential unintended consequences of testing among those who receive average-risk personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk findings, and examine predictors of sun protection at 3 months as the outcome. These findings will be used to develop messages for groups that receive average-risk feedback. Aim 2 will compare rates of test consideration in Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, including consideration of testing pros and cons and registration of a decision to either accept or decline testing. Aim 3 will examine personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk feedback comprehension, recall, satisfaction, and cancer-related distress in those who undergo testing, and whether these outcomes differ by ethnicity (Hispanic vs non-Hispanic), or sociocultural or demographic factors. Final outcome data collection is anticipated to be complete by October 2017, at which point data analysis will commence. Conclusions This study has important implications for personalized genomics in the context of melanoma risk, and may be broadly applicable as a model for delivery of personalized genomic feedback for other health conditions. PMID:28442450

Risk of introducing exotic fruit flies, Ceratitis capitata, Ceratitis cosyra, and Ceratitis rosa (Diptera: Tephritidae), into southern China.

PubMed

Li, Baini; Ma, Jun; Hu, Xuenan; Liu, Haijun; Wu, Jiajiao; Chen, Hongjun; Zhang, Runjie

2010-08-01

Exotic fruit flies (Ceratitis spp.) are often serious agricultural pests. Here, we used, pathway analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of introduction of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), Ceratitis cosyra (Walker), and Ceratitis rosa Karsch, into southern China with fruit consignments and incoming travelers. Historical data, expert opinions, relevant literature, and archives were used to set appropriate parameters in the pathway analysis. Based on the ongoing quarantine/ inspection strategies of China, as well as the interception records, we estimated the annual number of each fruit fly species entering Guangdong province undetected with commercially imported fruit, and the associated risk. We also estimated the gross number of pests arriving at Guangdong ports with incoming travelers and the associated risk. Sensitivity analysis also was performed to test the impact of parameter changes and to assess how the risk could be reduced. Results showed that the risk of introduction of the three fruit fly species into southern China with fruit consignments, which are mostly transported by ship, exists but is relatively low. In contrast, the risk of introduction with incoming travelers is high and hence deserves intensive attention. Sensitivity analysis indicated that either ensuring all shipments meet current phytosanitary requirements or increasing the proportion of fruit imports sampled for inspection could substantially reduce the risk associated with commercial imports. Sensitivity analysis also provided justification for banning importation of fresh fruit by international travelers. Thus, inspection and quarantine in conjunction with intensive detection were important mitigation measures to reduce the risk of Ceratitis spp. introduced into China.

Impact of genetically modified organisms on aquatic environments: Review of available data for the risk assessment.

PubMed

Pott, Antonia; Otto, Mathias; Schulz, Ralf

2018-09-01

The aquatic environment is strongly connected to the surrounding agricultural landscapes, which regularly serve as sources of stressors such as agrochemicals. Genetically modified crops, which are cultivated on a large scale in many countries, may also act as stressors. Despite the commercial use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) for over 20years, their impact on the aquatic environment came into focus only 10years ago. We present the status quo of the available scientific data in order to provide an input for informed aquatic risk assessment of GMOs. We could identify only 39 publications, including 84 studies, dealing with GMOs in the aquatic environment, and our analysis shows substantial knowledge gaps. The available information is restricted to a small number of crop plants, traits, events, and test organisms. The analysis of effect studies reveals that only a narrow range of organisms has been tested and that studies on combinatorial actions of stressors are virtually absent. The analysis of fate studies shows that many aspects, such as the fate of leached toxins, degradation of plant material, and distribution of crop residues in the aquatic habitat, are insufficiently investigated. Together with these research needs, we identify standardization of test methods as an issue of high priority, both for research and risk assessment needed for GMO regulation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High risk HPV testing following treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

PubMed

Molloy, M; Comer, R; Rogers, P; Dowling, M; Meskell, P; Asbury, K; O'Leary, M

2016-11-01

To determine the results of combined cytology and high-risk human papilloma virus (HR HPV) tests at 6 and 18 months postcolposcopy treatment at one Irish colposcopy centre. All women who attended the centre's colposcopy smear clinic for a co-test 6 months (initial test) posttreatment were included in the audit (n = 251). The results revealed negative HR HPV for 79 % (n = 198) of women tested 6 months after treatment and positive results for 21 % (n = 53). HR HPV testing was more sensitive than cytology and led to early detection of residual disease. No women with negative HR HPV had high-grade cytology. HR HPV is more sensitive than cytology for detection of persistent CIN. However, 19 women with positive HR HPV had normal colposcopy with no persistent CIN detected. A national cost-benefit analysis is recommended to determine the value of the second co-test.

Latent profile analysis of neuropsychological measures to determine preschoolers' risk for ADHD.

PubMed

Rajendran, Khushmand; O'Neill, Sarah; Marks, David J; Halperin, Jeffrey M

2015-09-01

Hyperactive/Inattentive preschool children show clear evidence of neuropsychological dysfunction. We examined whether patterns and severity of test scores could reliably identify subgroups of preschoolers with differential risk for ADHD during school-age. Typically developing (TD: n = 76) and Hyperactive/Inattentive (HI: n = 138) 3-4 year olds were assessed annually for 6 years (T1-T6). Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to form subgroups among the HI group based on objective/neuropsychological measures (NEPSY, Actigraph and Continuous Performance Test). Logistic regression assessed the predictive validity of empirically formed subgroups at risk for ADHD diagnosis relative to the TD group and to each other from T2 to T6. Latent profile analysis yielded two subgroups of HI preschoolers: (a) selectively weak Attention/Executive functions, and (b) pervasive neuropsychological dysfunction across all measures. Both subgroups were more likely to have ADHD at all follow-up time-points relative to the TD group (OR range: 11.29-86.32), but there were no significant differences between the LPA-formed subgroups of HI children at any time-point. Objective/neuropsychological measures distinguish HI preschoolers from their TD peers, but patterns and severity of neuropsychological dysfunction do not predict risk for ADHD during school-age. We hypothesize that trajectories in at-risk children are influenced by subsequent environmental and neurodevelopmental factors, raising the possibility that they are amenable to early intervention. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Derivation of a Provisional, Age-dependent, AIS2+ Thoracic Risk Curve for the THOR50 Test Dummy via Integration of NASS Cases, PMHS Tests, and Simulation Data.

PubMed

Laituri, Tony R; Henry, Scott; El-Jawahri, Raed; Muralidharan, Nirmal; Li, Guosong; Nutt, Marvin

2015-11-01

A provisional, age-dependent thoracic risk equation (or, "risk curve") was derived to estimate moderate-to-fatal injury potential (AIS2+), pertaining to men with responses gaged by the advanced mid-sized male test dummy (THOR50). The derivation involved two distinct data sources: cases from real-world crashes (e.g., the National Automotive Sampling System, NASS) and cases involving post-mortem human subjects (PMHS). The derivation was therefore more comprehensive, as NASS datasets generally skew towards younger occupants, and PMHS datasets generally skew towards older occupants. However, known deficiencies had to be addressed (e.g., the NASS cases had unknown stimuli, and the PMHS tests required transformation of known stimuli into THOR50 stimuli). For the NASS portion of the analysis, chest-injury outcomes for adult male drivers about the size of the THOR50 were collected from real-world, 11-1 o'clock, full-engagement frontal crashes (NASS, 1995-2012 calendar years, 1985-2012 model-year light passenger vehicles). The screening for THOR50-sized men involved application of a set of newly-derived "correction" equations for self-reported height and weight data in NASS. Finally, THOR50 stimuli were estimated via field simulations involving attendant representative restraint systems, and those stimuli were then assigned to corresponding NASS cases (n=508). For the PMHS portion of the analysis, simulation-based closure equations were developed to convert PMHS stimuli into THOR50 stimuli. Specifically, closure equations were derived for the four measurement locations on the THOR50 chest by cross-correlating the results of matched-loading simulations between the test dummy and the age-dependent, Ford Human Body Model. The resulting closure equations demonstrated acceptable fidelity (n=75 matched simulations, R2≥0.99). These equations were applied to the THOR50-sized men in the PMHS dataset (n=20). The NASS and PMHS datasets were combined and subjected to survival analysis with event-frequency weighting and arbitrary censoring. The resulting risk curve--a function of peak THOR50 chest compression and age--demonstrated acceptable fidelity for recovering the AIS2+ chest injury rate of the combined dataset (i.e., IR_dataset=1.97% vs. curve-based IR_dataset=1.98%). Additional sensitivity analyses showed that (a) binary logistic regression yielded a risk curve with nearly-identical fidelity, (b) there was only a slight advantage of combining the small-sample PMHS dataset with the large-sample NASS dataset, (c) use of the PMHS-based risk curve for risk estimation of the combined dataset yielded relatively poor performance (194% difference), and (d) when controlling for the type of contact (lab-consistent or not), the resulting risk curves were similar.

Association between DAOA gene polymorphisms and the risk of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and depressive disorder.

PubMed

Tan, Jinjing; Lin, Yu; Su, Li; Yan, Yan; Chen, Qing; Jiang, Haiyun; Wei, Qiugui; Gu, Lian

2014-06-03

Schizophrenia (SCZ), bipolar disorder (BD) and depressive disorder (DD) are common psychiatric disorders, which show common genetic vulnerability. Previous gene-disease association studies have reported correlations between d-amino acid oxidase activator (DAOA) gene polymorphisms and the three psychiatric disorders. However, the findings were contradictory. A meta-analysis was therefore conducted to provide more robust investigations into DAOA polymorphisms and the risk of SCZ, BD and DD. This meta-analysis recruited 46 published studies up to July 2013, including 17,515 cases and 25,189 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to evaluate the association between three specific DAOA SNPs and SCZ, BD and DD. Publication bias was tested by Begg's test and funnel plot, and heterogeneity was assessed by the Cochran's chi-square-based Q statistic and the inconsistency index (I(2)). Moreover, the robustness of the findings was estimated by cumulative meta-analysis. DAOA genetic polymorphisms (M15, M18 and M23) were not found to confer a statistically significant increased risk of SCZ, BD or DD in the overall sample, or in Caucasians and Asians following subgroup analysis. The current study indicated that M15, M18 and M23 might not be the risk factor for SCZ, BD or DD. However, further studies are required to provide robust evidence to estimate the association between DAOA polymorphisms and psychiatric disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between vasectomy and risk of testicular cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Duan, Haifeng; Deng, Tuo; Chen, Yiwen; Zhao, Zhijian; Wen, Yaoan; Chen, Yeda; Li, Xiaohang; Zeng, Guohua

2018-01-01

A number of researchers have reported that vasectomy is a risk factor for testicular cancer. However, this conclusion is inconsistent with a number of other published articles. Hence, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess whether vasectomy increases the risk of testicular cancer. We identified all related studies by searching the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library database from January 01, 1980 to June 01, 2017. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) checklist was used to assess all included non-randomized studies. Summarized odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the difference in outcomes between case and control groups. Subgroup analyses were performed according to the study design and country. A total of eight studies (2176 testicular cancer patients) were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Six articles were case-control studies, and two were cohort studies. The pooled estimate of the OR was 1.10 (95% CI: 0.93-1.30) based on the eight studies in a fixed effects model. Two subgroup analyses were performed according to the study design and country. The results were consistent with the overall findings. Publication bias was detected by Begg's test and Egger's test and p values > 0.05, respectively. Our meta-analysis suggested that there was no association between vasectomy and the development of testicular cancer. More high-quality studies are warranted to further explore the association between vasectomy and risk of testicular cancer.

Utilization of DXA Bone Mineral Densitometry in Ontario

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Executive Summary Issue Systematic reviews and analyses of administrative data were performed to determine the appropriate use of bone mineral density (BMD) assessments using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and the associated trends in wrist and hip fractures in Ontario. Background Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry Bone Mineral Density Assessment Dual energy x-ray absorptiometry bone densitometers measure bone density based on differential absorption of 2 x-ray beams by bone and soft tissues. It is the gold standard for detecting and diagnosing osteoporosis, a systemic disease characterized by low bone density and altered bone structure, resulting in low bone strength and increased risk of fractures. The test is fast (approximately 10 minutes) and accurate (exceeds 90% at the hip), with low radiation (1/3 to 1/5 of that from a chest x-ray). DXA densitometers are licensed as Class 3 medical devices in Canada. The World Health Organization has established criteria for osteoporosis and osteopenia based on DXA BMD measurements: osteoporosis is defined as a BMD that is >2.5 standard deviations below the mean BMD for normal young adults (i.e. T-score <–2.5), while osteopenia is defined as BMD that is more than 1 standard deviation but less than 2.5 standard deviation below the mean for normal young adults (i.e. T-score< –1 & ≥–2.5). DXA densitometry is presently an insured health service in Ontario. Clinical Need   Burden of Disease The Canadian Multicenter Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) found that 16% of Canadian women and 6.6% of Canadian men have osteoporosis based on the WHO criteria, with prevalence increasing with age. Osteopenia was found in 49.6% of Canadian women and 39% of Canadian men. In Ontario, it is estimated that nearly 530,000 Ontarians have some degrees of osteoporosis. Osteoporosis-related fragility fractures occur most often in the wrist, femur and pelvis. These fractures, particularly those in the hip, are associated with increased mortality, and decreased functional capacity and quality of life. A Canadian study showed that at 1 year after a hip fracture, the mortality rate was 20%. Another 20% required institutional care, 40% were unable to walk independently, and there was lower health-related quality of life due to attributes such as pain, decreased mobility and decreased ability to self-care. The cost of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures in Canada was estimated to be $1.3 billion in 1993. Guidelines for Bone Mineral Density Testing With 2 exceptions, almost all guidelines address only women. None of the guidelines recommend blanket population-based BMD testing. Instead, all guidelines recommend BMD testing in people at risk of osteoporosis, predominantly women aged 65 years or older. For women under 65 years of age, BMD testing is recommended only if one major or two minor risk factors for osteoporosis exist. Osteoporosis Canada did not restrict its recommendations to women, and thus their guidelines apply to both sexes. Major risk factors are age greater than or equal to 65 years, a history of previous fractures, family history (especially parental history) of fracture, and medication or disease conditions that affect bone metabolism (such as long-term glucocorticoid therapy). Minor risk factors include low body mass index, low calcium intake, alcohol consumption, and smoking. Current Funding for Bone Mineral Density Testing The Ontario Health Insurance Program (OHIP) Schedule presently reimburses DXA BMD at the hip and spine. Measurements at both sites are required if feasible. Patients at low risk of accelerated bone loss are limited to one BMD test within any 24-month period, but there are no restrictions on people at high risk. The total fee including the professional and technical components for a test involving 2 or more sites is $106.00 (Cdn). Method of Review This review consisted of 2 parts. The first part was an analysis of Ontario administrative data relating to DXA BMD, wrist and hip fractures, and use of antiresorptive drugs in people aged 65 years and older. The Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences extracted data from the OHIP claims database, the Canadian Institute for Health Information hospital discharge abstract database, the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System, and the Ontario Drug Benefit database using OHIP and ICD-10 codes. The data was analyzed to examine the trends in DXA BMD use from 1992 to 2005, and to identify areas requiring improvement. The second part included systematic reviews and analyses of evidence relating to issues identified in the analyses of utilization data. Altogether, 8 reviews and qualitative syntheses were performed, consisting of 28 published systematic reviews and/or meta-analyses, 34 randomized controlled trials, and 63 observational studies. Findings of Utilization Analysis Analysis of administrative data showed a 10-fold increase in the number of BMD tests in Ontario between 1993 and 2005. OHIP claims for BMD tests are presently increasing at a rate of 6 to 7% per year. Approximately 500,000 tests were performed in 2005/06 with an age-adjusted rate of 8,600 tests per 100,000 population. Women accounted for 90 % of all BMD tests performed in the province. In 2005/06, there was a 2-fold variation in the rate of DXA BMD tests across local integrated health networks, but a 10-fold variation between the county with the highest rate (Toronto) and that with the lowest rate (Kenora). The analysis also showed that: With the increased use of BMD, there was a concomitant increase in the use of antiresorptive drugs (as shown in people 65 years and older) and a decrease in the rate of hip fractures in people age 50 years and older. Repeat BMD made up approximately 41% of all tests. Most of the people (>90%) who had annual BMD tests in a 2-year or 3-year period were coded as being at high risk for osteoporosis. 18% (20,865) of the people who had a repeat BMD within a 24-month period and 34% (98,058) of the people who had one BMD test in a 3-year period were under 65 years, had no fracture in the year, and coded as low-risk. Only 19% of people age greater than 65 years underwent BMD testing and 41% received osteoporosis treatment during the year following a fracture. Men accounted for 24% of all hip fractures and 21 % of all wrist fractures, but only 10% of BMD tests. The rates of BMD tests and treatment in men after a fracture were only half of those in women. In both men and women, the rate of hip and wrist fractures mainly increased after age 65 with the sharpest increase occurring after age 80 years. Findings of Systematic Review and Analysis Serial Bone Mineral Density Testing for People Not Receiving Osteoporosis Treatment A systematic review showed that the mean rate of bone loss in people not receiving osteoporosis treatment (including postmenopausal women) is generally less than 1% per year. Higher rates of bone loss were reported for people with disease conditions or on medications that affect bone metabolism. In order to be considered a genuine biological change, the change in BMD between serial measurements must exceed the least significant change (variability) of the testing, ranging from 2.77% to 8% for precisions ranging from 1% to 3% respectively. Progression in BMD was analyzed, using different rates of baseline BMD values, rates of bone loss, precision, and BMD value for initiating treatment. The analyses showed that serial BMD measurements every 24 months (as per OHIP policy for low-risk individuals) is not necessary for people with no major risk factors for osteoporosis, provided that the baseline BMD is normal (T-score ≥ –1), and the rate of bone loss is less than or equal to 1% per year. The analyses showed that for someone with a normal baseline BMD and a rate of bone loss of less than 1% per year, the change in BMD is not likely to exceed least significant change (even for a 1% precision) in less than 3 years after the baseline test, and is not likely to drop to a BMD level that requires initiation of treatment in less than 16 years after the baseline test. Serial Bone Mineral Density Testing in People Receiving Osteoporosis Therapy Seven published meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 2 recent RCTs on BMD monitoring during osteoporosis therapy showed that although higher increases in BMD were generally associated with reduced risk of fracture, the change in BMD only explained a small percentage of the fracture risk reduction. Studies showed that some people with small or no increase in BMD during treatment experienced significant fracture risk reduction, indicating that other factors such as improved bone microarchitecture might have contributed to fracture risk reduction. There is conflicting evidence relating to the role of BMD testing in improving patient compliance with osteoporosis therapy. Even though BMD may not be a perfect surrogate for reduction in fracture risk when monitoring responses to osteoporosis therapy, experts advised that it is still the only reliable test available for this purpose. A systematic review conducted by the Medical Advisory Secretariat showed that the magnitude of increases in BMD during osteoporosis drug therapy varied among medications. Although most of the studies yielded mean percentage increases in BMD from baseline that did not exceed the least significant change for a 2% precision after 1 year of treatment, there were some exceptions. Bone Mineral Density Testing and Treatment After a Fragility Fracture A review of 3 published pooled analyses of observational studies and 12 prospective population-based observational studies showed that the presence of any prevalent fracture increases the relative risk for future fractures by approximately 2-fold or more. A review of 10 systematic reviews of RCTs and 3 additional RCTs showed that therapy with antiresorptive drugs significantly reduced the risk of vertebral fractures by 40 to 50% in postmenopausal osteoporotic women and osteoporotic men, and 2 antiresorptive drugs also reduced the risk of nonvertebral fractures by 30 to 50%. Evidence from observational studies in Canada and other jurisdictions suggests that patients who had undergone BMD measurements, particularly if a diagnosis of osteoporosis is made, were more likely to be given pharmacologic bone-sparing therapy. Despite these findings, the rate of BMD investigation and osteoporosis treatment after a fracture remained low (<20%) in Ontario as well as in other jurisdictions. Bone Mineral Density Testing in Men There are presently no specific Canadian guidelines for BMD screening in men. A review of the literature suggests that risk factors for fracture and the rate of vertebral deformity are similar for men and women, but the mortality rate after a hip fracture is higher in men compared with women. Two bisphosphonates had been shown to reduce the risk of vertebral and hip fractures in men. However, BMD testing and osteoporosis treatment were proportionately low in Ontario men in general, and particularly after a fracture, even though men accounted for 25% of the hip and wrist fractures. The Ontario data also showed that the rates of wrist fracture and hip fracture in men rose sharply in the 75- to 80-year age group. Ontario-Based Economic Analysis The economic analysis focused on analyzing the economic impact of decreasing future hip fractures by increasing the rate of BMD testing in men and women age greater than or equal to 65 years following a hip or wrist fracture. A decision analysis showed the above strategy, especially when enhanced by improved reporting of BMD tests, to be cost-effective, resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio ranging from $2,285 (Cdn) per fracture avoided (worst-case scenario) to $1,981 (Cdn) per fracture avoided (best-case scenario). A budget impact analysis estimated that shifting utilization of BMD testing from the low risk population to high risk populations within Ontario would result in a saving of $0.85 million to $1.5 million (Cdn) to the health system. The potential net saving was estimated at $1.2 million to $5 million (Cdn) when the downstream cost-avoidance due to prevention of future hip fractures was factored into the analysis. Other Factors for Consideration There is a lack of standardization for BMD testing in Ontario. Two different standards are presently being used and experts suggest that variability in results from different facilities may lead to unnecessary testing. There is also no requirement for standardized equipment, procedure or reporting format. The current reimbursement policy for BMD testing encourages serial testing in people at low risk of accelerated bone loss. This review showed that biannual testing is not necessary for all cases. The lack of a database to collect clinical data on BMD testing makes it difficult to evaluate the clinical profiles of patients tested and outcomes of the BMD tests. There are ministry initiatives in progress under the Osteoporosis Program to address the development of a mandatory standardized requisition form for BMD tests to facilitate data collection and clinical decision-making. Work is also underway for developing guidelines for BMD testing in men and in perimenopausal women. Conclusion Increased use of BMD in Ontario since 1996 appears to be associated with increased use of antiresorptive medication and a decrease in hip and wrist fractures. Data suggest that as many as 20% (98,000) of the DXA BMD tests in Ontario in 2005/06 were performed in people aged less than 65 years, with no fracture in the current year, and coded as being at low risk for accelerated bone loss; this is not consistent with current guidelines. Even though some of these people might have been incorrectly coded as low-risk, the number of tests in people truly at low risk could still be substantial. Approximately 4% (21,000) of the DXA BMD tests in 2005/06 were repeat BMDs in low-risk individuals within a 24-month period. Even though this is in compliance with current OHIP reimbursement policies, evidence showed that biannual serial BMD testing is not necessary in individuals without major risk factors for fractures, provided that the baseline BMD is normal (T-score < –1). In this population, BMD measurements may be repeated in 3 to 5 years after the baseline test to establish the rate of bone loss, and further serial BMD tests may not be necessary for another 7 to 10 years if the rate of bone loss is no more than 1% per year. Precision of the test needs to be considered when interpreting serial BMD results. Although changes in BMD may not be the perfect surrogate for reduction in fracture risk as a measure of response to osteoporosis treatment, experts advised that it is presently the only reliable test for monitoring response to treatment and to help motivate patients to continue treatment. Patients should not discontinue treatment if there is no increase in BMD after the first year of treatment. Lack of response or bone loss during treatment should prompt the physician to examine whether the patient is taking the medication appropriately. Men and women who have had a fragility fracture at the hip, spine, wrist or shoulder are at increased risk of having a future fracture, but this population is presently under investigated and under treated. Additional efforts have to be made to communicate to physicians (particularly orthopaedic surgeons and family physicians) and the public about the need for a BMD test after fracture, and for initiating treatment if low BMD is found. Men had a disproportionately low rate of BMD tests and osteoporosis treatment, especially after a fracture. Evidence and fracture data showed that the risk of hip and wrist fractures in men rises sharply at age 70 years. Some counties had BMD utilization rates that were only 10% of that of the county with the highest utilization. The reasons for low utilization need to be explored and addressed. Initiatives such as aligning reimbursement policy with current guidelines, developing specific guidelines for BMD testing in men and perimenopausal women, improving BMD reports to assist in clinical decision making, developing a registry to track BMD tests, improving access to BMD tests in remote/rural counties, establishing mechanisms to alert family physicians of fractures, and educating physicians and the public, will improve the appropriate utilization of BMD tests, and further decrease the rate of fractures in Ontario. Some of these initiatives such as developing guidelines for perimenopausal women and men, and developing a standardized requisition form for BMD testing, are currently in progress under the Ontario Osteoporosis Strategy. PMID:23074491

Underestimation of Risk of a BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutation in Women With High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer by BRCAPRO: A Multi-Institution Study

PubMed Central

Daniels, Molly S.; Babb, Sheri A.; King, Robin H.; Urbauer, Diana L.; Batte, Brittany A.L.; Brandt, Amanda C.; Amos, Christopher I.; Buchanan, Adam H.; Mutch, David G.; Lu, Karen H.

2014-01-01

Purpose Identification of the 10% to 15% of patients with ovarian cancer who have germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations is important for management of both patients and relatives. The BRCAPRO model, which estimates mutation likelihood based on personal and family cancer history, can inform genetic testing decisions. This study's purpose was to assess the accuracy of BRCAPRO in women with ovarian cancer. Methods BRCAPRO scores were calculated for 589 patients with ovarian cancer referred for genetic counseling at three institutions. Observed mutations were compared with those predicted by BRCAPRO. Analysis of variance was used to assess factors impacting BRCAPRO accuracy. Results One hundred eighty (31%) of 589 patients with ovarian cancer tested positive. At BRCAPRO scores less than 40%, more mutations were observed than expected (93 mutations observed v 34.1 mutations expected; P < .001). If patients with BRCAPRO scores less than 10% had not been tested, 51 (28%) of 180 mutations would have been missed. BRCAPRO underestimated the risk for high-grade serous ovarian cancers but overestimated the risk for other histologies (P < .001), underestimation increased as age at diagnosis decreased (P = .02), and model performance varied by institution (P = .02). Conclusion Patients with ovarian cancer classified as low risk by BRCAPRO are more likely to test positive than predicted. The risk of a mutation in patients with low BRCAPRO scores is high enough to warrant genetic testing. This study demonstrates that assessment of family history by a validated model cannot effectively target testing to a high-risk ovarian cancer patient population, which strongly supports the recommendation to offer BRCA1/BRCA2 genetic testing to all patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer regardless of family history. PMID:24638001

Breast cancer genetic testing awareness, attitudes and intentions of Latinas living along the US-Mexico border: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Chalela, Patricia; Pagán, José A; Su, Dejun; Muñoz, Edgar; Ramirez, Amelie G

2012-01-01

Genetic testing for breast cancer may facilitate better-informed decisions regarding cancer prevention, risk reduction, more effective early detection, and better determination of risk for family members. Despite these potential benefits, significant portions of the US population-particularly Latinas-lack awareness of genetic testing for breast cancer susceptibility. Among women who are tested, less than 4% are Latina. To uncover reasons for Latinas' low participation, this study explores awareness, attitudes and behavioral intentions to undergo genetic testing among average-risk Latinas along the Texas-Mexico border. Eight focus groups were conducted with 58 Latinas aged 19-69 living in Hidalgo County, a largely Latino region of South Texas. Focus group discussions were digitally recorded, transcribed and analyzed using qualitative content analysis to assess, categorize and interpret them. Two experienced study team members analyzed transcripts to identify major concepts grouped into theme categories. Participants mostly had less than a high-school education (43%), spoke primarily Spanish (52%), were of Mexican-American origin (90%) and had a family income of $30,000 or less (75%). Focus groups found that most participants had positive attitudes and strong interest in genetic testing, yet lacked general awareness and knowledge about genetic testing, its risks, benefits, and limitations. Participants also identified several key cultural-based influencers, such as family, religious beliefs and fear of testing. The delivery of culturally adapted risk information is needed to increase and ensure Latinas' understanding of breast cancer genetic testing during their decision-making processes. Key Latino values-religiosity, importance of family and the influential role of health care providers in health decisions-should also be considered when designing interventions targeting this specific group. Further research is needed to identify effective ways to communicate genetic risk susceptibility information to Latinas to help them make informed testing decisions.

Psychometric testing of the decisional conflict scale: genetic testing hereditary breast and ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Katapodi, Maria C; Munro, Michelle L; Pierce, Penny F; Williams, Reg A

2011-01-01

: Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome is attributed mostly to mutations in the Breast Cancer 1 and Breast Cancer 2 genes (BRCA1/2). Mutation carriers of BRCA1/2 genes have significantly higher risk for developing breast cancer compared with the general population (55%-85% vs. 12%) and for developing ovarian cancer (20%-60% vs. 1.5%). The availability of genetic testing enables mutation carriers to make informed decisions about managing their cancer risk (e.g., risk-reducing surgery). However, uptake of testing for HBOC among high-risk individuals is low, indicating the need to better understand and measure the decisional conflict associated with this process. : The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the modified Decisional Conflict Scale for use in decisions associated with genetic testing for HBOC. : This cross-sectional cohort study, recruited women who pursued genetic testing for HBOC in two genetic risk assessment clinics affiliated with a large comprehensive cancer center and one of their female relatives who did not pursue testing. The final sample consisted of 342 women who completed all 16 items of the Decisional Conflict Scale. The psychometric properties of the scale were assessed using tests of reliability and validity, including face, content, construct, contrast, convergent, divergent, and predictive validity. : Factor analysis using principal axis factoring with oblimin rotation elicited a three-factor structure: (a) Lack of Knowledge About the Decision (α = .97), (b) Lack of Autonomy in Decision Making (α = .94), and (c) Lack of Confidence in Decision Making (α = .87). These factors explained 82% of the variance in decisional conflict about genetic testing. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was .96. : The instrument is an important tool for researchers and healthcare providers working with women at risk for HBOC who are deciding whether genetic testing is the right choice for them.

A Multigene Test Could Cost-Effectively Help Extend Life Expectancy for Women at Risk of Hereditary Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Li, Yonghong; Arellano, Andre R; Bare, Lance A; Bender, Richard A; Strom, Charles M; Devlin, James J

2017-04-01

The National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends that women who carry gene variants that confer substantial risk for breast cancer consider risk-reduction strategies, that is, enhanced surveillance (breast magnetic resonance imaging and mammography) or prophylactic surgery. Pathogenic variants can be detected in women with a family history of breast or ovarian cancer syndromes by multigene panel testing. To investigate whether using a seven-gene test to identify women who should consider risk-reduction strategies could cost-effectively increase life expectancy. We estimated effectiveness and lifetime costs from a payer perspective for two strategies in two hypothetical cohorts of women (40-year-old and 50-year-old cohorts) who meet the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-defined family history criteria for multigene testing. The two strategies were the usual test strategy for variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 and the seven-gene test strategy for variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53, PTEN, CDH1, STK11, and PALB2. Women found to have a pathogenic variant were assumed to undergo either prophylactic surgery or enhanced surveillance. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the seven-gene test strategy compared with the BRCA1/2 test strategy was $42,067 per life-year gained or $69,920 per quality-adjusted life-year gained for the 50-year-old cohort and $23,734 per life-year gained or $48,328 per quality-adjusted life-year gained for the 40-year-old cohort. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the seven-gene test strategy cost less than $100,000 per life-year gained in 95.7% of the trials for the 50-year-old cohort. Testing seven breast cancer-associated genes, followed by risk-reduction management, could cost-effectively improve life expectancy for women at risk of hereditary breast cancer. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the associations among Helicobacter pylori infection, adiponectin, leptin, and 10-year fracture risk using the fracture risk assessment tool: A cross-sectional community-based study

PubMed Central

Chen, Fang-Ping; Hsieh, Chia-Wen; Kuo, Sheng-Fong; Chien, Rong-Nan

2017-01-01

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection may induce inflammatory cytokines or adipokines that influence bone turnover and bone fracture risk. This study aimed to evaluate the association among H. pylori infection, adipokines, and 10-year fracture risk using the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool scale. From August 2013 to February 2016, a community-based cohort was surveyed by Keelung Chang-Gung Memorial Hospital. Subjects were included if they were older than 40 years and not pregnant. All participants underwent a standardized questionnaire survey, physical examination, urea breath test, and blood tests. A total of 2,689 participants (1,792 women) were included in this cross-sectional study. In both sexes, participants with a high fracture risk were older and had higher adiponectin values than participants without a high fracture risk (mean age, female: 72.9 ± 5.6 vs. 55.8 ± 7.3 years, P < 0.0001; male: 78.9 ± 4.7 vs. 58.1 ± 8.9 years, P < 0.001) (adiponectin, female: 10.8 ± 6.3 vs. 8.7 ± 5.2 ng/ml, P < 0.001; male: 9.7 ± 6.1 vs. 5.5 ± 3.8 ng/ml, P < 0.001). Adiponectin was correlated with high fracture risk in both sexes, but H. pylori infection and leptin was not. In logistic regression analysis, adiponectin could not predict high fracture risk when adjusting the factor of body mass index (BMI) in men group. In conclusion, H. pylori infection and leptin could not predict 10-year fracture risk in either sex. Adiponectin was correlated with bone fracture risk in both sexes and the correlation might be from the influence of BMI. PMID:28388631

Apparent diffusion coefficient on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in bladder cancer: relations with recurrence/progression risk

PubMed Central

Kikuchi, Ken; Shigihara, Takeshi; Hashimoto, Yuko; Miyajima, Masayuki; Haga, Nobuhiro; Kojima, Yoshiyuki; Shishido, Fumio

2017-01-01

Abstract AIMS: To evaluate the relationship between the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value for bladder cancer and the recurrence/progression risk of post-transurethral resection (TUR). METHODS: Forty-one patients with initial and non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer underwent MRI from 2009 to 2012. Two radiologists measured ADC values. A pathologist calculated the recurrence/progression scores, and risk was classified based on the scores. Pearson’s correlation was used to analyze the correlations of ADC value with each score and with each risk group, and the optimal cut-off value was established based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Furthermore, the relationship between actual recurrence / progression of cases and ADC values was examined by Unpaird U test. RESULTS: There were significant correlations between ADC value and the recurrence score as well as the progression score (P<0.01, P<0.01, respectively). There were also significant correlations between ADC value and the recurrence risk group as well as progression risk group (P=0.042, P<0.01, respectively). The ADC cut-off value on ROC analysis was 1.365 (sensitivity 100%; specificity 97.4%) for the low and intermediate recurrence risk groups, 1.024 (sensitivity 47.4%; specificity 100%) for the intermediate and high recurrence risk groups, 1.252 (sensitivity 83.3%; specificity 81.3%) for the low and intermediate progression risk groups, and 0.955 (sensitivity 87.5%; specificity 63.2%) between the intermediate and high progression risk groups. The difference between the ADC values of the recurrence and nonrecurrence group in Unpaired t test was significant (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: ADC on MRI in bladder cancer could potentially be useful, non-invasive measurement for estimating the risks of recurrence and progression. PMID:28680010

PAX1 methylation analysis by MS-HRM is useful in triage of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions.

PubMed

Wang, Zhen-Ming

2014-01-01

This study is aimed to investigate the role of paired boxed gene 1 (PAX1) methylation analysis by methylation- sensitive high-resolution melting (MS-HRM) in the detection of high grade lesions in atypical squamous cells cannot exclude high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (ASC-H) and compared its performance with the Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) human papillomavirus (HPV) test. In our study, 130 cases with a diagnosis of ASC-H from the cervical cytological screening by Thinprep cytologic test (TCT) technique were selected for triage. Their cervical scrapings were collected and evaluated by using PAX1 methylation analysis (MS-HRM) and high-risk HPV DNA test (HC2), followed by colposcopy and cervical biopsy. Chi-square test were used to test the differences of PAX1 methylation or HPV infection between groups. In the detection of CIN2+, the sensitivity, specificity, the PPV, NPV and the accuracy of PAX1 MS-HRM assay and high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) tests were respectively 80.6% vs 67.7%, 94.9% vs 54.5%, 83.3%, vs 31.8%, 94.0% vs 84.4%, and 91.5% vs 57.7%. The PAX1 MS-HRM assay proved superior to HR-HPV testing in the detection of high grade lesions (CIN2+) in ASC-H. This approach could screen out the majority of high grade lesion cases of ASC-H, and thus could reduce the referral rate to colposcopy.

Injury risk curves for the skeletal knee-thigh-hip complex for knee-impact loading.

PubMed

Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Kuppa, Shashi M

2010-01-01

Injury risk curves for the skeletal knee-thigh-hip (KTH) relate peak force applied to the anterior aspect of the flexed knee, the primary source of KTH injury in frontal motor-vehicle crashes, to the probability of skeletal KTH injury. Previous KTH injury risk curves have been developed from analyses of peak knee-impact force data from studies where knees of whole cadavers were impacted. However, these risk curves either neglect the effects of occupant gender, stature, and mass on KTH fracture force, or account for them using scaling factors derived from dimensional analysis without empirical support. A large amount of experimental data on the knee-impact forces associated with KTH fracture are now available, making it possible to estimate the effects of subject characteristics on skeletal KTH injury risk by statistically analyzing empirical data. Eleven studies were identified in the biomechanical literature in which the flexed knees of whole cadavers were impacted. From these, peak knee-impact force data and the associated subject characteristics were reanalyzed using survival analysis with a lognormal distribution. Results of this analysis indicate that the relationship between peak knee-impact force and the probability of KTH fracture is a function of age, total body mass, and whether the surface that loads the knee is rigid. Comparisons between injury risk curves for the midsize adult male and small adult female crash test dummies defined in previous studies and new risk curves for these sizes of occupants developed in this study suggest that previous injury risk curves generally overestimate the likelihood of KTH fracture at a given peak knee-impact force. Future work should focus on defining the relationships between impact force at the human knee and peak axial compressive forces measured by load cells in the crash test dummy KTH complex so that these new risk curves can be used with ATDs.

Public Perception of Blue-Algae Bloom Risk in Hongze Lake of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lei; Sun, Kai; Ban, Jie; Bi, Jun

2010-05-01

In this work we characterize the public perception of one kind of ecological risk—blue-algae bloom in Hongze Lake, China, based on the psychometric paradigm method. In the first survey of May 2008, 300 respondents of Sihong County adjacent to Hongze Lake were investigated, with a total of 156 questionnaires returned. Then in a second survey of July 2008, 500 respondents from the same research area were investigated, with 318 questionnaires collected. This research firstly attempted to explore the local respondents’ degree of concern regarding ecological changes to Hongze Lake in the last ten years. Secondly, to explore the public perception of blue-algae bloom compared to three typical kinds of hazards including earthquake, nuclear power and public traffic. T-test was used to examine the difference of risk perception in these four hazards over time. The third part of this research, with demographic analysis and nonparametric statistical test, predicted the different groups of respondents’ willingness to accept (WTA) risk of blue-algae bloom in two surveys. Using multiple linear regression analysis, the risk perception model explained 28.3% of variance in the WTA blue-algae bloom risk. The variables of Knowledge, Social effect, Benefit, Controllability and Trust in government were significantly correlated with WTA, which implied that these variables were the main influencing factors explaining the respondents’ willingness to accept risk. The results would help the Chinese government to comprehend the public’s risk perception of the lake ecosystem, inducing well designed communication of risks with public and making effective mitigation policies to improve people’s rational risk judgment.

Statistical considerations in the development of injury risk functions.

PubMed

McMurry, Timothy L; Poplin, Gerald S

2015-01-01

We address 4 frequently misunderstood and important statistical ideas in the construction of injury risk functions. These include the similarities of survival analysis and logistic regression, the correct scale on which to construct pointwise confidence intervals for injury risk, the ability to discern which form of injury risk function is optimal, and the handling of repeated tests on the same subject. The statistical models are explored through simulation and examination of the underlying mathematics. We provide recommendations for the statistically valid construction and correct interpretation of single-predictor injury risk functions. This article aims to provide useful and understandable statistical guidance to improve the practice in constructing injury risk functions.

Identifying Balance Measures Most Likely to Identify Recent Falls.

PubMed

Criter, Robin E; Honaker, Julie A

2016-01-01

Falls sustained by older adults are an increasing health care issue. Early identification of those at risk for falling can lead to successful prevention of falls. Balance complaints are common among individuals who fall or are at risk for falling. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical utility of a multifaceted balance protocol used for fall risk screening, with the hypothesis that this protocol would successfully identify individuals who had a recent fall (within the previous 12 months). This is a retrospective review of 30 individuals who self-referred for a free fall risk screening. Measures included case history, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale, modified Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction on Balance, Timed Up and Go test, and Dynamic Visual Acuity. Statistical analyses were focused on the ability of the test protocol to identify a fall within the past 12 months and included descriptive statistics, clinical utility indices, logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the curve analysis, effect size (Cohen d), and Spearman correlation coefficients. All individuals who self-referred for this free screening had current imbalance complaints, and were typically women (70%), had a mean age of 77.2 years, and had a fear of falling (70%). Almost half (46.7%) reported at least 1 lifetime fall and 40.0% within the past 12 months. Regression analysis suggested that the Timed Up and Go test was the most important indicator of a recent fall. A cutoff score of 12 or more seconds was optimal (sensitivity: 83.3%; specificity: 61.1%). Older adults with current complaints of imbalance have a higher rate of falls, fall-related injury, and fear of falling than the general community-dwelling public. The Timed Up and Go test is useful for determining recent fall history in individuals with imbalance.

Factors predicting recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia

PubMed Central

Saxena, Rohit; Puranik, Shraddha; Singh, Digvijay; Menon, Vimla; Sharma, Pradeep; Phuljhele, Swati

2013-01-01

Context: Recurrence after successful treatment of amblyopia is known and understanding the risk factors could help effective management. Aim: To measure incidence of recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia and evaluate factors predicting it. Settings and Design: Cohort Study at a tertiary level institution. Materials and Methods: Successfully treated anisometropic amblyopes aged 4−12 years were followed up for 1 year after stopping therapy. Best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), refractive error, stereoacuity and contrast sensitivity were evaluated at baseline and follow-up. Statistical Analysis: Intergroup analysis with appropriate tests: Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and paired t-test. Results: One hundred and two patients with mean age at diagnosis 7.06 ± 1.81 years were followed-up for a mean duration of 1.0 ± 0.2 years. The mean pre-treatment BCVA (LogMAR score) at diagnosis was 0.73 ± 0.36 units which improved to 0.20 ± 0.00 with treatment and after 1 year of stopping treatment was 0.22 ± 0.07. Thirteen (12.74%) patients showed amblyopia recurrence during follow-up. Risk of recurrence was higher with older age of onset of treatment (6.64 ± 1.77 years without recurrence v/s 8.53 ± 1.39 years with recurrence, P = 0.0014). Greater extent of improvement of VA (P = 0.048) and final VA at stopping occlusion (P = 0.03) were associated with higher recurrence. Binocularity status or stereoacuity changes were not associated with risk of recurrence. Conclusions: Significant numbers of children suffer recurrence of amblyopia after stopping therapy. Older age, better BCVA after stopping therapy and greater magnitude of improvement in BCVA are important risk factors for recurrence. Careful follow-up is essential for early detection and management of recurrence. PMID:24343594

Concern and Risk Perception: Effects on Osteoprotective Behaviour

PubMed Central

Barcenilla-Wong, A. L.; Chen, J. S.; March, L. M.

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the effect that level of concern for osteoporosis, as well as self-perceived risk of osteoporosis and fracture, has on supplementation use, seeking medical advice, bone mineral density (BMD) testing, and antiosteoporosis medication (AOM) use. Study subjects were 1,095 female Australian participants of the Global Longitudinal study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) untreated for osteoporosis at baseline. Study outcomes from self-administered questionnaires included calcium and vitamin D supplementation, self-reported seeking of medical advice regarding osteoporosis, BMD testing, and AOM use in the last 12 months at the late assessment. Logistic regression was used in the analysis. Concern significantly increased the likelihood of seeking medical advice and, however, had no significant impact on screening or treatment. Heightened self-perceived risks of osteoporosis and fracture both significantly increased the likelihood of seeking medical advice and BMD testing while elevated self-perceived risk of fracture increased AOM use. Supplementation use was not significantly associated with concern levels and risk perception. Concern and risk perceptions to osteoporosis and fracture were significantly associated with certain bone-protective behaviours. However, the disconnect between perceived osteoporosis risk and AOM use illustrates the need to emphasize the connection between osteoporosis and fracture in future education programs. PMID:25276471

Depression and risk of fracture and bone loss: an updated meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Wu, Q; Liu, B; Tonmoy, S

2018-03-12

This meta-analysis pooled results from 23 qualifying individual cohort studies and found that depression was significantly associated with an increased risk of fractures and bone loss. The association between depression and risk of fracture remains controversial. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to examine the effect of depression on the risk of osteoporotic fractures and bone loss. We searched databases and reviewed citations in relevant articles for eligible cohort studies. Two investigators independently conducted study selection, appraisal, and data abstraction through the use of a standardized protocol. Random effect models were used for meta-analysis. Cochrane Q and I 2 statistics were used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plots and rank correlation tests were used to evaluate publication bias. Twenty-three studies were included for meta-analysis. In studies that reported hazard ratio (HR) as the outcome (nine studies [n = 309,862]), depression was associated with 26% increase in fracture risk (HR = 1.26, 95% CI, 1.10-1.43, p < 0.001). Studies that reported risk ratio (RR) as the outcome (seven studies [n = 64,975]) suggested that depression was associated with 39% increase in fracture risk (RR = 1.39, 95% CI, 1.19-1.62, p < 0.001). Among studies that reported hip bone mineral density (BMD) as an outcome (eight studies [n = 15,442]), depression was associated with a reduced mean annual bone loss rate of 0.35% (0.18-0.53%, p < 0.001). The increased risk of fracture and bone loss associated with depression was consistent in all meta-analysis having modified inclusion criteria and in different subgroup analyses as well. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis; however, no significant publication bias was detected. Depression is associated with a significant increased risk in fracture and bone loss. Effective prevention may decrease such risk.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Interaction of reward seeking and self-regulation in the prediction of risk taking: A cross-national test of the dual systems model.

PubMed

Duell, Natasha; Steinberg, Laurence; Chein, Jason; Al-Hassan, Suha M; Bacchini, Dario; Lei, Chang; Chaudhary, Nandita; Di Giunta, Laura; Dodge, Kenneth A; Fanti, Kostas A; Lansford, Jennifer E; Malone, Patrick S; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta; Skinner, Ann T; Sorbring, Emma; Tapanya, Sombat; Uribe Tirado, Liliana Maria; Alampay, Liane Peña

2016-10-01

In the present analysis, we test the dual systems model of adolescent risk taking in a cross-national sample of over 5,200 individuals aged 10 through 30 (M = 17.05 years, SD = 5.91) from 11 countries. We examine whether reward seeking and self-regulation make independent, additive, or interactive contributions to risk taking, and ask whether these relations differ as a function of age and culture. To compare across cultures, we conduct 2 sets of analyses: 1 comparing individuals from Asian and Western countries, and 1 comparing individuals from low- and high-GDP countries. Results indicate that reward seeking and self-regulation have largely independent associations with risk taking and that the influences of each variable on risk taking are not unique to adolescence, but that their link to risk taking varies across cultures. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Gene expression profiling for molecular staging of cutaneous melanoma in patients undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy.

PubMed

Gerami, Pedram; Cook, Robert W; Russell, Maria C; Wilkinson, Jeff; Amaria, Rodabe N; Gonzalez, Rene; Lyle, Stephen; Jackson, Gilchrist L; Greisinger, Anthony J; Johnson, Clare E; Oelschlager, Kristen M; Stone, John F; Maetzold, Derek J; Ferris, Laura K; Wayne, Jeffrey D; Cooper, Chelsea; Obregon, Roxana; Delman, Keith A; Lawson, David

2015-05-01

A gene expression profile (GEP) test able to accurately identify risk of metastasis for patients with cutaneous melanoma has been clinically validated. We aimed for assessment of the prognostic accuracy of GEP and sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) tests, independently and in combination, in a multicenter cohort of 217 patients. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to assess the expression of 31 genes from primary melanoma tumors, and SLNB outcome was determined from clinical data. Prognostic accuracy of each test was determined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis of disease-free, distant metastasis-free, and overall survivals. GEP outcome was a more significant and better predictor of each end point in univariate and multivariate regression analysis, compared with SLNB (P < .0001 for all). In combination with SLNB, GEP improved prognostication. For patients with a GEP high-risk outcome and a negative SLNB result, Kaplan-Meier 5-year disease-free, distant metastasis-free, and overall survivals were 35%, 49%, and 54%, respectively. Within the SLNB-negative cohort of patients, overall risk of metastatic events was higher (∼30%) than commonly found in the general population of patients with melanoma. In this study cohort, GEP was an objective tool that accurately predicted metastatic risk in SLNB-eligible patients. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for indications of intraoperative blood transfusion among patients undergoing surgical treatment for colorectal adenocarcinoma.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Iara; Linhares, Marcelo; Bordin, Jose; Matos, Delcio

2009-01-01

Identification of risk factors for requiring transfusions during surgery for colorectal cancer may lead to preventive actions or alternative measures, towards decreasing the use of blood components in these procedures, and also rationalization of resources use in hemotherapy services. This was a retrospective case-control study using data from 383 patients who were treated surgically for colorectal adenocarcinoma at 'Fundação Pio XII', in Barretos-SP, Brazil, between 1999 and 2003. To recognize significant risk factors for requiring intraoperative blood transfusion in colorectal cancer surgical procedures. Univariate analyses were performed using Fisher's exact test or the chi-squared test for dichotomous variables and Student's t test for continuous variables, followed by multivariate analysis using multiple logistic regression. In the univariate analyses, height (P = 0.06), glycemia (P = 0.05), previous abdominal or pelvic surgery (P = 0.031), abdominoperineal surgery (P<0.001), extended surgery (P<0.001) and intervention with radical intent (P<0.001) were considered significant. In the multivariate analysis using logistic regression, intervention with radical intent (OR = 10.249, P<0.001, 95% CI = 3.071-34.212) and abdominoperineal amputation (OR = 3.096, P = 0.04, 95% CI = 1.445-6.623) were considered to be independently significant. This investigation allows the conclusion that radical intervention and the abdominoperineal procedure in the surgical treatment of colorectal adenocarcinoma are risk factors for requiring intraoperative blood transfusion.

Asymmetry during preseason Functional Movement Screen testing is associated with injury during a junior Australian football season.

PubMed

Chalmers, Samuel; Fuller, Joel T; Debenedictis, Thomas A; Townsley, Samuel; Lynagh, Matthew; Gleeson, Cara; Zacharia, Andrew; Thomson, Stuart; Magarey, Mary

2017-07-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS) is a popular screening tool, however, the postulated relationship between prospective injury and FMS scoring remains sparsely explored in adolescent athletes. The aim of the study was to examine the association between pre-season FMS scores and injuries sustained during one regular season competition in elite adolescent Australian football players. Prospective cohort study. 237 elite junior Australian football players completed FMS testing during the late pre-season phase and had their weekly playing status monitored during the regular season. The definition of an injury was 'a trauma which caused a player to miss a competitive match'. The median composite FMS score was 14 (mean=13.5±2.3). An apriori analysis revealed that the presence of ≥1 asymmetrical sub-test was associated with a moderate increase in the risk of injury (hazard ratio=2.2 [1.0-4.8]; relative risk=1.9; p=0.047; sensitivity=78.4%; specificity=41.0%). Notably, post-hoc analysis identified that the presence of ≥2 asymmetrical sub-tests was associated with an even greater increase in risk of prospective injury (hazard ratio=3.7 [1.6-8.6]; relative risk=2.8; p=0.003; sensitivity=66.7%; specificity=78.0%). Achieving a composite score of ≤14 did not substantially increase the risk of prospective injury (hazard ratio=1.1 [0.5-2.1]; p=0.834). Junior Australian football players demonstrating asymmetrical movement during pre-season FMS testing were more likely to sustain an injury during the regular season than players without asymmetry. Findings suggest that the commonly reported composite FMS threshold score of ≤14 was not associated with injury in elite junior AF players. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

PubMed

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Risk communication discourse among ecological risk assessment professionals and its implications for communication with nonexperts.

PubMed

Hunka, Agnieszka D; Palmqvist, Annemette; Thorbek, Pernille; Forbes, Valery E

2013-10-01

Risk communication, especially to the general public and end users of plant protection products, is an important challenge. Currently, much of the risk communication the general public receives is via the popular press, and risk managers face the challenge of presenting their decisions and their scientific basis to the general public in an understandable way. Therefore, we decided to explore the obstacles in risk communication, as done by expert risk assessors and managers. Using the discourse analysis framework and readability tests, we studied perspectives of 3 stakeholder groups-regulators, industry representatives, and academics across Europe. We conducted 30 confidential interviews (10 participants in each group), with part of the interview guide focused on communication of pesticide risk to the general public and the ideas experts in the field of risk assessment and management hold of the public perception of pesticides. We used the key informant approach in recruiting our participants. They were first identified as key stakeholders in ecological risk assessment of pesticides and then sampled by means of a snowball sampling technique. In the analysis, first we identified main motifs (themes) in each group, and then we moved to studying length of the sentences and grammar and to uncovering discourses present in the text data. We also used the Flesch Reading Ease test to determine the comprehension difficulty of transcribed interviews. The test is commonly used as a standard for estimating the readability of technical documents. Our results highlight 3 main obstacles standing in the way of effective communication with wider audiences. First of all, ecological risk assessment as a highly technical procedure uses the specific language of ecological risk assessment, which is also highly specialized and might be difficult to comprehend by nonexperts. Second, the idea of existing "expert-lay discrepancy," a phenomenon described in risk perception studies is visibly present in the experts' opinions. Finally, the communication flow among stakeholders was perceived as flawed, e.g., our participants did not consider themselves fully included in the communication process, despite taking part in many networks. Interestingly, both studies on the role of trust in risk perception, and research on links between daily choices and perceived risk, show that the public is more likely to rely on experts they can trust, than the experts in our study were inclined to think. © 2013 SETAC.

Forensics Investigator

MedlinePlus

... specialize in areas such as DNA analysis or firearm examination, performing tests on weapons and substances like ... often are exposed to human body fluids and firearms. However, these working conditions pose little risk, if ...

Risk based requirements for long term stewardship: A proof-of-principle analysis of an analytic method tested on selected Hanford locations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jarvis, T.T.; Andrews, W.B.; Buck, J.W.

1998-03-01

Since 1989, the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production, research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate [DOE, 1995a], the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controlsmore » limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little information about post-cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about future site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous.« less

Risk profile and HIV testing outcomes of women undergoing community-based testing in San Diego 2008-2014.

PubMed

Graves, Susannah K; Little, Susan J; Hoenigl, Martin

2017-02-06

Women comprised 19% of new HIV diagnoses in the United States in 2014, with significant racial and ethnic disparities in infection rates. This cross-sectional analysis of women enrolled in a cohort study compares demographics, risk behaviour, and sexually transmitted infections (STI) in those undergoing HIV testing in San Diego County. Data from the most recent screening visit of women undergoing voluntary HIV screening April 2008 -July 2014 was used. HIV diagnosis, risk behaviour and self-reported STIs were compared among women aged ≤24, 25-49, and ≥50, as well as between HIV-infected and uninfected women and between Hispanic and non-Hispanic women. Among the 2535 women included, Hispanic women were less likely than other women to report unprotected vaginal intercourse (p = 0.026) or stimulant drug use (p = 0.026), and more likely to report one or fewer partners (p < 0.0001), but also more likely to report sex with an HIV-infected individual (p = 0.027). New HIV infection was significantly more prevalent among Hispanic women (1.6% vs. 0.2%; p < 0.001). Hispanic women were more likely than other women to be diagnosed with HIV despite significantly lower rates of risk behaviour. Culturally specific risk reduction interventions for Hispanic women should focus on awareness of partner risk and appropriate testing.

Rare-Variant Association Analysis: Study Designs and Statistical Tests

PubMed Central

Lee, Seunggeung; Abecasis, Gonçalo R.; Boehnke, Michael; Lin, Xihong

2014-01-01

Despite the extensive discovery of trait- and disease-associated common variants, much of the genetic contribution to complex traits remains unexplained. Rare variants can explain additional disease risk or trait variability. An increasing number of studies are underway to identify trait- and disease-associated rare variants. In this review, we provide an overview of statistical issues in rare-variant association studies with a focus on study designs and statistical tests. We present the design and analysis pipeline of rare-variant studies and review cost-effective sequencing designs and genotyping platforms. We compare various gene- or region-based association tests, including burden tests, variance-component tests, and combined omnibus tests, in terms of their assumptions and performance. Also discussed are the related topics of meta-analysis, population-stratification adjustment, genotype imputation, follow-up studies, and heritability due to rare variants. We provide guidelines for analysis and discuss some of the challenges inherent in these studies and future research directions. PMID:24995866

Hiring a Gay Man, Taking a Risk?: A Lab Experiment on Employment Discrimination and Risk Aversion.

PubMed

Baert, Stijn

2018-01-01

We investigate risk aversion as a driver of labor market discrimination against homosexual men. We show that more hiring discrimination by more risk-averse employers is consistent with taste-based and statistical discrimination. To test this hypothesis we conduct a scenario experiment in which experimental employers take a fictitious hiring decision concerning a heterosexual or homosexual male job candidate. In addition, participants are surveyed on their risk aversion and other characteristics that might correlate with this risk aversion. Analysis of the (post-)experimental data confirms our hypothesis. The likelihood of a beneficial hiring decision for homosexual male candidates decreases by 31.7% when employers are a standard deviation more risk-averse.

Sperm competition games between sneaks and guards: a comparative analysis using dimorphic male beetles.

PubMed

Simmons, Leigh W; Emlen, Douglas J; Tomkins, Joseph L

2007-11-01

Sperm competition is widely recognized as a pervasive force of sexual selection. Theory predicts that across species increased risk of sperm competition should favor an increased expenditure on the ejaculate, a prediction for which there is much evidence. Sperm competition games have also been developed specifically for systems in which males adopt the alternative male mating tactics of sneaking copulations or guarding females. These models have not yet been tested in a comparative context, but predict that: across species male expenditure on the ejaculate should increase with increasing probability of a sneak mating; within species, sneaks should have the greater expenditure on the ejaculate; and the disparity in expenditure between sneaks and guards should be greatest in species with moderate risk of a sneak mating, and decline toward parity in species with low or high risk. Beetles in the genus Onthophagus are often characterized by dimorphic male morphologies that reflect the alternative mating tactics of sneak (minor males) and guard (major males). We conducted a comparative analysis across 16 species of male dimorphic onthophagines, finding that testes size increased across species with increasing frequency of the minor male phenotype. Minor males generally had the greater testes size, but across species the disparity between morphs was independent of the frequency of minor males. We present data on testes allometry from two populations of O. taurus that have undergone genetic divergence in the frequency of minor males. Consistent with the comparative analysis, these data support the notion that the relative frequency of sneaks in the population influences male expenditure on the ejaculate.

QC operator’s nonneutral posture against musculoskeletal disorder’s (MSDs) risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kautsar, F.; Gustopo, D.; Achmadi, F.

2018-04-01

Musculoskeletal disorders refer to a gamut of inflammatory and degenerative disorders aggravated largely by the performance of work. It is the major cause of pain, disability, absenteeism and reduced productivity among workers worldwide. Although it is not fatal, MSDs have the potential to develop into serious injuries in the musculoskeletal system if ignored. QC operators work in nonneutral body posture. This cross-sectional study was condusted in order to investigate correlation between risk assessment results of QEC and body posture calculation of mannequin pro. Statistical analysis was condusted using SPSS version 16.0. Validity test, Reliability test and Regression analysis were conducted to compare the risk assessment output of applied method and nonneutral body posture simulation. All of QEC’s indicator classified as valid and reliable. The result of simple regression anlysis are back (0.326<4.32), shoulder/arm (8.489>4.32), wrist/hand (4.86 >4.32) and neck (1.298 <4.32). Result of this study shows that there is an influence between nonneutral body posture of the QC operator during work with risk of musculoskeletal disorders. The potential risk of musculoskeletal disorders is in the shoulder/arm and wrist/hand of the QC operator, whereas the back and neck are not affected.

Whole transcriptome RNA-Seq analysis of breast cancer recurrence risk using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor tissue.

PubMed

Sinicropi, Dominick; Qu, Kunbin; Collin, Francois; Crager, Michael; Liu, Mei-Lan; Pelham, Robert J; Pho, Mylan; Dei Rossi, Andrew; Jeong, Jennie; Scott, Aaron; Ambannavar, Ranjana; Zheng, Christina; Mena, Raul; Esteban, Jose; Stephans, James; Morlan, John; Baker, Joffre

2012-01-01

RNA biomarkers discovered by RT-PCR-based gene expression profiling of archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue form the basis for widely used clinical diagnostic tests; however, RT-PCR is practically constrained in the number of transcripts that can be interrogated. We have developed and optimized RNA-Seq library chemistry as well as bioinformatics and biostatistical methods for whole transcriptome profiling from FFPE tissue. The chemistry accommodates low RNA inputs and sample multiplexing. These methods both enable rediscovery of RNA biomarkers for disease recurrence risk that were previously identified by RT-PCR analysis of a cohort of 136 patients, and also identify a high percentage of recurrence risk markers that were previously discovered using DNA microarrays in a separate cohort of patients, evidence that this RNA-Seq technology has sufficient precision and sensitivity for biomarker discovery. More than two thousand RNAs are strongly associated with breast cancer recurrence risk in the 136 patient cohort (FDR <10%). Many of these are intronic RNAs for which corresponding exons are not also associated with disease recurrence. A number of the RNAs associated with recurrence risk belong to novel RNA networks. It will be important to test the validity of these novel associations in whole transcriptome RNA-Seq screens of other breast cancer cohorts.

Whole Transcriptome RNA-Seq Analysis of Breast Cancer Recurrence Risk Using Formalin-Fixed Paraffin-Embedded Tumor Tissue

PubMed Central

Sinicropi, Dominick; Qu, Kunbin; Collin, Francois; Crager, Michael; Liu, Mei-Lan; Pelham, Robert J.; Pho, Mylan; Rossi, Andrew Dei; Jeong, Jennie; Scott, Aaron; Ambannavar, Ranjana; Zheng, Christina; Mena, Raul; Esteban, Jose; Stephans, James; Morlan, John; Baker, Joffre

2012-01-01

RNA biomarkers discovered by RT-PCR-based gene expression profiling of archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue form the basis for widely used clinical diagnostic tests; however, RT-PCR is practically constrained in the number of transcripts that can be interrogated. We have developed and optimized RNA-Seq library chemistry as well as bioinformatics and biostatistical methods for whole transcriptome profiling from FFPE tissue. The chemistry accommodates low RNA inputs and sample multiplexing. These methods both enable rediscovery of RNA biomarkers for disease recurrence risk that were previously identified by RT-PCR analysis of a cohort of 136 patients, and also identify a high percentage of recurrence risk markers that were previously discovered using DNA microarrays in a separate cohort of patients, evidence that this RNA-Seq technology has sufficient precision and sensitivity for biomarker discovery. More than two thousand RNAs are strongly associated with breast cancer recurrence risk in the 136 patient cohort (FDR <10%). Many of these are intronic RNAs for which corresponding exons are not also associated with disease recurrence. A number of the RNAs associated with recurrence risk belong to novel RNA networks. It will be important to test the validity of these novel associations in whole transcriptome RNA-Seq screens of other breast cancer cohorts. PMID:22808097

Are RA patients from a non-endemic HCV population screened for HCV? A cross-sectional analysis of three different settings.

PubMed

Skinner-Taylor, Cassandra Michelle; Erhard-Ramírez, Alejandro; Garza-Elizondo, Mario Alberto; Esquivel-Valerio, Jorge Antonio; Abud-Mendoza, Carlos; Martínez-Martínez, Marco Ulises; Vega-Morales, David; Arana-Guajardo, Ana

In Mexico, other risk factors are associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV): prior heroin users, living alone, widower, and northern region residence. Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients are considered immunosuppressed and HCV testing is recommended before treatment. The aim of the study was to describe the characteristics of HCV testing in RA patients in three different medical care settings in a non-endemic area. A retrospective observational study was performed using medical records from 960 RA patients describing the indications for HCV testing. The test was performed in 28.6% and the HCV overall frequency was 0.36%. Population characteristics were not associated with an increased risk of HCV infection; therefore, anti-HCV positivity was low. The main reason for testing was before starting biological agents. Due to the low pre-test probability, testing for HCV infection should be personalized; i.e., according to disease prevalence in a particular geographical location and the individual risk factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and predictors of Lymphogranuloma venereum in a high risk population attending a STD outpatients clinic in Italy.

PubMed

Foschi, Claudio; Marangoni, Antonella; D'Antuono, Antonietta; Nardini, Paola; Compri, Monica; Bellavista, Sara; Filippini, Andrea; Bacchi Reggiani, Maria Letizia; Cevenini, Roberto

2014-04-09

We evaluated LGV prevalence and predictors in a high risk population attending a STI Outpatients Clinic in the North of Italy. A total of 108 patients (99 MSM and 9 women), with a history of unsafe anal sexual intercourses, were enrolled. Anorectal swabs and urine samples were tested for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) DNA detection by Versant CT/GC DNA 1.0 Assay (Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Terrytown, USA). RFLP analysis was used for CT molecular typing. L2 CT genotype was identified in 13/108 (12%) rectal swabs. All LGV cases were from MSM, declaring high-risk sexual behaviour and complaining anorectal symptoms. Patients first attending the STI Outpatient Clinic received a significant earlier LGV diagnosis than those first seeking care from general practitioners or gastroenterologists (P = 0.0046). LGV prevalence and characteristics found in our population are in agreement with international reports. Statistical analysis showed that LGV positive patients were older (P = 0.0008) and presented more STIs (P = 0.0023) than LGV negative ones, in particular due to syphilis (P < 0.001), HIV (P < 0.001) and HBV (P = 0.001).Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that HIV and syphilis infections are strong risk factors for LGV presence (respectively, P = 0.001 and P = 0.010). Even if our results do not provide sufficient evidence to recommend routine screening of anorectal swabs in high-risk population, they strongly suggest to perform CT NAAT tests and genotyping on rectal specimens in presence of ulcerative proctitis in HIV and/or syphilis-positive MSM. In this context, CT DNA detection by Versant CT/GC DNA 1.0 Assay, followed by RFLP analysis for molecular typing demonstrated to be an excellent diagnostic algorithm for LGV identification.

Genes-environment interactions in obesity- and diabetes-associated pancreatic cancer: a GWAS data analysis.

PubMed

Tang, Hongwei; Wei, Peng; Duell, Eric J; Risch, Harvey A; Olson, Sara H; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Gallinger, Steven; Holly, Elizabeth A; Petersen, Gloria M; Bracci, Paige M; McWilliams, Robert R; Jenab, Mazda; Riboli, Elio; Tjønneland, Anne; Boutron-Ruault, Marie Christine; Kaaks, Rudolf; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Panico, Salvatore; Sund, Malin; Peeters, Petra H M; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Amos, Christopher I; Li, Donghui

2014-01-01

Obesity and diabetes are potentially alterable risk factors for pancreatic cancer. Genetic factors that modify the associations of obesity and diabetes with pancreatic cancer have previously not been examined at the genome-wide level. Using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) genotype and risk factor data from the Pancreatic Cancer Case Control Consortium, we conducted a discovery study of 2,028 cases and 2,109 controls to examine gene-obesity and gene-diabetes interactions in relation to pancreatic cancer risk by using the likelihood-ratio test nested in logistic regression models and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA). After adjusting for multiple comparisons, a significant interaction of the chemokine signaling pathway with obesity (P = 3.29 × 10(-6)) and a near significant interaction of calcium signaling pathway with diabetes (P = 1.57 × 10(-4)) in modifying the risk of pancreatic cancer were observed. These findings were supported by results from IPA analysis of the top genes with nominal interactions. The major contributing genes to the two top pathways include GNGT2, RELA, TIAM1, and GNAS. None of the individual genes or single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) except one SNP remained significant after adjusting for multiple testing. Notably, SNP rs10818684 of the PTGS1 gene showed an interaction with diabetes (P = 7.91 × 10(-7)) at a false discovery rate of 6%. Genetic variations in inflammatory response and insulin resistance may affect the risk of obesity- and diabetes-related pancreatic cancer. These observations should be replicated in additional large datasets. A gene-environment interaction analysis may provide new insights into the genetic susceptibility and molecular mechanisms of obesity- and diabetes-related pancreatic cancer.

Which neuromuscular or cognitive test is the optimal screening tool to predict falls in frail community-dwelling older people?

PubMed

Shimada, Hiroyuki; Suzukawa, Megumi; Tiedemann, Anne; Kobayashi, Kumiko; Yoshida, Hideyo; Suzuki, Takao

2009-01-01

The use of falls risk screening tools may aid in targeting fall prevention interventions in older individuals most likely to benefit. To determine the optimal physical or cognitive test to screen for falls risk in frail older people. This prospective cohort study involved recruitment from 213 day-care centers in Japan. The feasibility study included 3,340 ambulatory individuals aged 65 years or older enrolled in the Tsukui Ordered Useful Care for Health (TOUCH) program. The external validation study included a subsample of 455 individuals who completed all tests. Physical tests included grip strength (GS), chair stand test (CST), one-leg standing test (OLS), functional reach test (FRT), tandem walking test (TWT), 6-meter walking speed at a comfortable pace (CWS) and at maximum pace (MWS), and timed up-and-go test (TUG). The mental status questionnaire (MSQ) was used to measure cognitive function. The incidence of falls during 1 year was investigated by self-report or an interview with the participant's family and care staff. The most practicable tests were the GS and MSQ, which could be administered to more than 90% of the participants regardless of the activities of daily living status. The FRT and TWT had lower feasibility than other lower limb function tests. During the 1-year retrospective analysis of falls, 99 (21.8%) of the 455 validation study participants had fallen at least once. Fallers showed significantly poorer performance than non-fallers in the OLS (p = 0.003), TWT (p = 0.001), CWS (p = 0.013), MWS (p = 0.007), and TUG (p = 0.011). The OLS, CWS, and MWS remained significantly associated with falls when performance cut-points were determined. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the TWT was a significant and independent, yet weak predictor of falls. A weighting system which considered feasibility and validity scored the CWS (at a cut-point of 0.7 m/s) as the best test to predict risk of falls. Clinical tests of neuromuscular function can predict risk of falls in frail older people. When feasibility and validity were considered, the CWS was the best test for use as a screening tool in frail older people, however, these preliminary results require confirmation in further research. Copyright 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Double Aneuploidy Detected by Cell-Free DNA Testing and Confirmed by Fetal Tissue Analysis.

PubMed

Echague, Charlene G; Petersen, Scott M

2016-06-01

Double aneuploidies account for 0.21-2.8% of spontaneous abortions resulting from chromosomal abnormalities. Rarely, cell-free DNA testing detects multiple aneuploidies; however, to discern among maternal, placental, and fetal origin, further evaluation is required. A 49-year-old woman, gravida 5 para 0, underwent cell-free DNA testing at 11 4/7 weeks of gestation, which revealed a fetus that was high risk for trisomies 18 and 21. On ultrasonography at 14 weeks of gestation, she was diagnosed with a missed abortion and underwent surgical management. Fetal and placental tissues were sent for analysis and were positive for trisomies 18 and 21, confirming the results of cell-free DNA testing. Our case highlights the ability of cell-free DNA testing to recognize a double aneuploidy confirmed by fetal tissue analysis.

[High-risk HPV genotyping PCR testing as a means of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions early screening].

PubMed

Ma, Li; Cong, Xiao; Bian, Meilu; Shi, Mai; Wang, Xiuhong; Liu, Jun; Liu, Haiyan

2015-04-01

To explored high-risk HPV genotyping PCR testing whether as a feasible means for the early screening of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions. From January 2013 to June 2014, 15,192 outpatients in China-Japan Friendship Hospital voluntary were tested by high-risk type HPV genotyping PCR. The average age of them were (33±8) years old. High-risk HPV types genotyping PCR tested by fluorescence PCR technology, in which 13 kinds of high-risk HPV subtypes were detected, including HPV16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59 and 68. A total of 4,315 cases of them were tested by the liquid-based cytology (LCT), among them with positive of high-risk HPV genotyping tested by PCR (n=2,366) were biopsy under colposcope (648 cases) in those LCT results were positive or LCT negative but HPV16 positive or LCT negative but had the clear clinical symptoms or and non-HPV16 positive but with clear clinical symptoms. (1) Analysis high-risk HPV infection status of 15 192 women. (2) As the pathological diagnosis was the gold standard in the diagnosis of cervical lesions, analysis of the relationship among high-risk HPV infection, virus loads and cervical lesions. (3) To evaluated the value of high-risk HPV genotyping PCR tested method in screening of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions. ⑴ Of 15,192 cases tested by high-risk HPV genotyping PCR, 2,366 cases were HPV positive (HPV infection), the overall infection rate was 15.57% (2,366/15,192), in which a single subtype of HPV infection in 1,767 cases, infection rate was 11.63% (1,767/15,192), and multiple subtypes of HPV infection (two and more subtypes HPV infection) in 599 cases, infection rate was 3.94% (599/15,192). The HPV16, 52 and 58 infections were the most common HPV subtypes in 13 subtypes, the infection rate was 3.95% (600/15,192), 2.86% (435/15,192) and 2.67% (406/15,192), respectively. (2) The most relevant subtypes with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) II and even higher lesion were HPV16, 52 and 58, accounted for 57.7% (154/267) of all above CIN II lesions. The most relevant subtype with the cervical glandular intraepithelial neoplasia (CGIN) II or above lesions was HPV18, 3 cases with CGIN II or above lesions were all single HPV18 infection. The pathologic examination positive percentage of patients which HPV virus loads≤10(3) copys/10(4) cells was 18.2% (25/137), while the pathologic examination positive proportion was 33.3% (247/742) which HPV virus loads≥10(4) copys/10(4) cells, there was statistically significant difference between them (χ2=27.06, P=0.000). (3) Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for detection of CIN II or above using HPV genotyping PCR were 96.11%, 85.76%, 30.94% and 99.70%, respectively. There were a guiding significance for high-risk HPV genotyping PCR tested in screening of cervical cancer and precancerous lesion. HPV16, 52 and 58 were related to the severe cervical squamous epithelial lesions, while HPV18 was related to cervical severe glandular cell pathological changes. HPV genotyping is feasible and economical as the first choice of opportunistic screening in tertiary hospitals.

Results of research on development of an intellectual information system of bankruptcy risk assessment of the enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telipenko, E.; Chernysheva, T.; Zakharova, A.; Dumchev, A.

2015-10-01

The article represents research results about the knowledge base development for the intellectual information system for the bankruptcy risk assessment of the enterprise. It is described the process analysis of the knowledge base development; the main process stages, some problems and their solutions are given. The article introduces the connectionist model for the bankruptcy risk assessment based on the analysis of industrial enterprise financial accounting. The basis for this connectionist model is a three-layer perceptron with the back propagation of error algorithm. The knowledge base for the intellectual information system consists of processed information and the processing operation method represented as the connectionist model. The article represents the structure of the intellectual information system, the knowledge base, and the information processing algorithm for neural network training. The paper shows mean values of 10 indexes for industrial enterprises; with the help of them it is possible to carry out a financial analysis of industrial enterprises and identify correctly the current situation for well-timed managerial decisions. Results are given about neural network testing on the data of both bankrupt and financially strong enterprises, which were not included into training and test sets.

Breast cancer risk is similar for CHEK2 founder and non-founder mutation carriers.

PubMed

Leedom, Tracey P; LaDuca, Holly; McFarland, Rachel; Li, Shuwei; Dolinsky, Jill S; Chao, Elizabeth C

2016-09-01

CHEK2 mutations are associated with increased cancer risks, including breast; however, published risk estimates are limited to those conferred by CHEK2 founder mutations, presenting uncertainty in risk assessment for carriers of other CHEK2 mutations. This study aimed to assess phenotypes and molecular characteristics of CHEK2 mutation carriers (CHEK2 + s) from a multi-gene panel testing (MGPT) cohort, focusing on comparing phenotypes of founder and non-founder CHEK2 + s. Clinical histories and molecular results were reviewed from 45,879 patients who underwent MGPT including CHEK2 at a commercial laboratory. Of individuals tested, 2.4% (n = 1085) were CHEK2 + s. Sixteen individuals harbored biallelic CHEK2 mutations, bringing the total number of CHEK2 mutations detected in this cohort to 1101. Personal/family cancer histories were compared between founder (n = 576; included c.1100delC, p.S428F, c.444 + 1G > A, and EX8_9del) and non-founder (n = 259) CHEK2 + s using Fisher's exact test and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Individuals carrying the p.I157T moderate risk founder mutation (n = 231), additional mutations in non-CHEK2 genes (n = 83), or biallelic mutations (n = 16) were excluded from phenotype analysis, as were cases with no clinical information provided. No significant phenotypic differences were observed between founder and non-founder CHEK2 + s. These data suggest that cancer risks reported for founder mutations may be generalizable to all CHEK2 + s, particularly for breast cancer. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maternal vitamin D status during pregnancy and risk of childhood asthma: A meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Song, Huihui; Yang, Lei; Jia, Chongqi

2017-05-01

Mounting evidence suggests that maternal vitamin D status during pregnancy may be associated with development of childhood asthma, but the results are still inconsistent. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed to quantitatively summarize evidence on the association of maternal vitamin D status during pregnancy with the risk of childhood asthma. A systematic search was conducted to identify all studies assessing the association of maternal 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) during pregnancy with risk of childhood asthma. The fixed or random-effect model was selected based on the heterogeneity test among studies. Nonlinear dose-response relationship was assessed by restricted cubic spline model. Fifteen prospective studies with 12 758 participants and 1795 cases were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk of childhood asthma comparing the highest versus lowest category of maternal 25(OH)D levels was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.75-1.02). For dose-response analysis, evidence of a U-shaped relationship was found between maternal 25(OH)D levels and risk of childhood asthma (P nonlinearity = 0.02), with the lowest risk at approximately 70 nmol/L of 25(OH)D. This dose-response meta-analysis suggested a U-shaped relationship between maternal blood 25(OH)D levels and risk of childhood asthma. Further studies are needed to confirm the association. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Evaluating elements of trust: Race and class in risk communication in post-Katrina New Orleans.

PubMed

Battistoli, B F

2016-05-01

This study seeks to determine the relative influence of race and class on trust in sources of messages of environmental risk in post-Katrina New Orleans. It poses two hypotheses to test that influence: H1-African-Americans ("Blacks") trust risk message sources less than European American ("Whites") do and H2-The higher the socioeconomic class, the lower the trust in risk message sources. A 37-question telephone survey (landlines and cellphones) was conducted in Orleans Parish in 2012 (n = 414). The overall margin of error was ±4.8% at a 95% confidence interval. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed that the first hypothesis was rejected, while the second was supported. Additional data analysis revealed that frequency of use of sources of risk information appears to be a positive factor in building trust. © The Author(s) 2015.

Climate Change Risk Management Consulting: The opportunity for an independent business practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciccozzi, R.

2009-04-01

The Paper outlines the main questions to be addressed with reference to the actual demand of climate change risk management consulting, in the financial services. Moreover, the Project shall also try to investigate if the Catastrophe Modelling Industry can start and manage a business practice specialised on climate change risk exposures. In this context, the Paper aims at testing the possibility to build a sound business case, based upon typical MBA course analysis tools, such as PEST(LE), SWOT, etc. Specific references to the tools to be used and to other contribution from academic literature and general documentation are also discussed in the body of the Paper and listed at the end. The analysis shall also focus on the core competencies required for an independent climate change risk management consulting business practice, with the purpose to outline a valid definition of how to achieve competitive advantage in climate change risk management consulting.

Fruit and vegetable intake and prostate cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Meng, Hongzhou; Hu, Wenyi; Chen, Zhaodian; Shen, Yuehong

2014-06-01

Recent reports have examined the effect of fruit and vegetable intake on the risk of prostate cancer, but the results are inconsistent. A meta-analysis of prospective studies was conducted to arrive at quantitative conclusions about the contribution of vegetable and fruit intake to the incidence of prostate cancer. A comprehensive, systematic search of medical literature published up to June 2012 was performed to identify relevant studies. Separate meta-analyses were conducted for fruit and vegetable consumption. The presence of publication bias was assessed using Egger and Begg tests. In total, 16 cohort studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The combined adjusted relative risk comparing highest with lowest categories showed that there was no association between vegetable and fruit consumption and prostate cancer incidence. The pooled relative risk was 0.97 (95%CI 0.93, 1.01) for vegetables and 1.02 (95%CI 0.98, 1.07) for fruit. There is no heterogeneity between the studies. No publication bias was detected. This meta-analysis suggests that total fruit or vegetable consumption may not exert a protective role in the risk of prostate cancer. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Prevalence and risk factors for scrub typhus in South India.

PubMed

Trowbridge, Paul; P, Divya; Premkumar, Prasanna S; Varghese, George M

2017-05-01

To determine the prevalence and risk factors of scrub typhus in Tamil Nadu, South India. We performed a clustered seroprevalence study of the areas around Vellore. All participants completed a risk factor survey, with seropositive and seronegative participants acting as cases and controls, respectively, in a risk factor analysis. After univariate analysis, variables found to be significant underwent multivariate analysis. Of 721 people participating in this study, 31.8% tested seropositive. By univariate analysis, after accounting for clustering, having a house that was clustered with other houses, having a fewer rooms in a house, having fewer people living in a household, defecating outside, female sex, age >60 years, shorter height, lower weight, smaller body mass index and smaller mid-upper arm circumference were found to be significantly associated with seropositivity. After multivariate regression modelling, living in a house clustered with other houses, female sex and age >60 years were significantly associated with scrub typhus exposure. Overall, scrub typhus is much more common than previously thought. Previously described individual environmental and habitual risk factors seem to have less importance in South India, perhaps because of the overall scrub typhus-conducive nature of the environment in this region. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rosacea and contact allergy to cosmetics and topical medicaments--retrospective analysis of multicentre surveillance data 1995-2002.

PubMed

Jappe, U; Schnuch, A; Uter, W

2005-02-01

The role of contact allergy in rosacea has rarely been investigated. In this retrospective study, 361 out of 76,697 patients tested and documented by the Information Network of Departments of Dermatology between 1995 and 2002 had rosacea. Patch tests included standard series and constituents of cosmetics and topical medicaments. 118/361 had additionally been patch tested with their own cosmetics/medicaments. Positive reactions occurred to nickel (II) sulfate in 9.3%, fragrance mix in 8.8%, thimerosal in 6.9%, Myroxylon pereirae resin in 5.9%, potassium dichromate in 4.6% and propolis in 2.8%. Whereas rosacea patients had a significantly higher risk of contact allergy to propolis compared to the remaining patients, in an age- and sex-adjusted analysis, contact allergy to nickel was significantly less frequent in this group. For Lyral, the risk was elevated, albeit not significantly. Only 2/329 patients were positive to neomycin sulfate and 1/100 to gentamicin sulfate, among the panel of (topical) antibiotics tested. Among 118 patients tested with their own products, 3 were tested to metronidazole, 1 reacting positively. Irritant or doubtful patch test reactions were provoked by various substances (vehicles, oxidants and preservatives of various creams), which might also be clinically important, considering the heightened sensitivity of rosaceous skin.

Chronic disease risk factors among hotel workers.

PubMed

Gawde, Nilesh Chandrakant; Kurlikar, Prashika R

2016-01-01

Non-communicable diseases have emerged as a global health issue. Role of occupation in pathogenesis of non-communicable diseases has not been explored much especially in the hospitality industry. Objectives of this study include finding risk factor prevalence among hotel workers and studying relationship between occupational group and chronic disease risk factors chiefly high body mass index. A cross-sectional study was conducted among non-managerial employees from classified hotels in India. The study participants self-administered pre-designed pilot-tested questionnaires. The risk factor prevalence rates were expressed as percentages. Chi-square test was used for bi-variate analysis. Overweight was chosen as 'outcome' variable of interest and binary multi-logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants. The prevalence rates of tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate physical activity and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 32%, 49%, 24% and 92% respectively among hotel employees. Tobacco use was significantly common among those in food preparation and service, alcohol use among those in food service and security and leisure time physical activity among front office workers. More than two-fifths (42.7%) were overweight. Among the hotel workers, those employed in food preparation and security had higher odds of 1.650 (CI: 1.025 - 2.655) and 3.245 (CI: 1.296 - 8.129) respectively of being overweight. Prevalence of chronic disease risk factors is high among hotel workers. Risk of overweight is significantly high in food preparation and security departments and workplace interventions are necessary to address these risks.

Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and the risk of cutaneous melanoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mocellin, Simone; Nitti, Donato

2008-11-01

It has been hypothesized that polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene affect the risk of developing melanoma. However, results often are conflicting, and no meta-analysis has been performed to date on published data. Six studies (cases, 2152; controls, 2410) that investigated the association between 5 VDR polymorphisms (TaqI, FokI, BsmI, EcoRV, and Cdx2) and the risk of melanoma were retrieved and analyzed. The model-free approach was applied to meta-analyze these molecular association studies. Available data suggested a significant association between the BsmI VDR polymorphism and melanoma risk (pooled odds ratio [OR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.53; P= .002; heterogeneity Cochran Q test, P> .1), and the population-attributable risk was 9.2%. In contrast, the FokI polymorphism did not appear to be associated with such risk (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.99-1.21; P= .07; heterogeneity Cochran Q test, P> .1). For the TaqI and the EcoRV polymorphisms, significant between-study heterogeneity did not support genotype data pooling. Only 1 study investigated the Cdx2 variant, and the findings were negative. Current evidence is in favor of an association between 1 VDR gene polymorphism (BsmI) and the risk of developing melanoma. The current findings prompt further investigation on this subject and indirectly support the hypothesis that sun exposure may have an antimelanoma effect through activation of the vitamin D system.

Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

PubMed

Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

2015-09-01

Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

PubMed

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Improving risk management: from lame excuses to principled practice.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth; Cox, Louis Anthony

2014-07-01

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame-shifting "lame excuses" for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning-especially from near-misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk-reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Materials risk analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

State highway authorities routinely examine the quality of the materials used to build highway construction projects. Some : materials are tested, some are accepted through a manufacturers certification of quality or compliance, some are physicall...

Patterns of HIV testing practices among young gay and bisexual men living in Scotland: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Boydell, Nicola; Buston, Katie; McDaid, Lisa Margaret

2017-08-17

Increasing overall rates, and frequency, of HIV testing in populations at risk is a key public health objective and a critical dimension of HIV prevention efforts. In the UK, men who have sex with men (MSM) remain one of the communities most at risk of HIV and, within this, young gay men are a key risk group. Understanding HIV testing practices is important in the development of interventions to promote testing among young gay and bisexual men. Qualitative interviews were conducted with thirty young gay and bisexual men (aged 18-29) in Scotland. Thematic analysis of men's accounts of their approach to HIV testing identified three overarching patterns of testing: 'habitual', 'reactive' and ' ad hoc'. This qualitative study, the first to explore patterns of HIV testing practices among young gay and bisexual men in the UK, contributes novel findings around the role of social support and 'community' in shaping young men's approaches to HIV testing. The findings suggest that social support can play an important role in encouraging and facilitating HIV testing among young gay men, however, social norms of non-testing also have the potential to act as a barrier to development of a regular routine. Men with habitual testing practices framed HIV testing as both a personal and 'community' responsibility, and more effective than testing in response to risk events or emergent symptoms. Men who reported reactive testing practices described testing for HIV primarily in response to perceived exposure to sexual risk, along with 'transitional moments' such as starting, ending or changes to a relationship. Among young men who reported testing on an ad hoc basis, inconvenience and disruptions to HIV testing practices, particularly where men lacked social support, acted as a barrier to developing a routine of regular testing. Our findings suggest that interventions which seek to increase rates of HIV testing and testing frequency among young gay and bisexual men should include a specific focus on promoting and supporting positive testing practices within young men's friendship groups and wider gay communities.

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

[Prevalence of and risk factors for hepatitis C in blood donors].

PubMed

Ladrón-de Guevara, Laura; Gómez, Nicolás; Vázquez-Cantarell, Mariana; García-Méndez, Sergio; Di Silvio, Mauricio

2002-01-01

Determine hepatitis C prevalence and risk factors in blood donors from the Blood Bank at the Centro Médico Nacional 20 de Noviembre ISSSTE, in Mexico City. A total of 41,957 blood donors were included in the study was done from January 1996 to August 2000. To study risk factors, a case-control study cases were defined as blood donors with repeatedly positive anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) ELISA test. Controls were defined as blood donors with negative anti-HCV ELISA test. All cases were interviewed a second time on HCV infection-associated risk factors. Odd ratio (OR) and confidence interval 95% (CI 95%) were calculated for each risk factoring in a univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed subsequents to determine the independent contribution or each risk factor. HCV crude total prevalence was 0.84%. Risk factors were found in 36.16% anti-HCV-positive blood donors. During the second interview, 30% of sero-positive blood donors recalled one or more risk factors they previously denied. The most important risk factors, found were as follows sexual relations with prostitutes (OR 7.48, CI 95% 1.43-38.92) transfusion (OR 6, CI 95% 2.62-13.72); nasal cocaine use (OR 8.89, CI 95%, 1.01-86.89); dental surgery (OR 8.89, CI 95% 1.01-86.89) and contact with hepatitis-infected subject (OR 3.01, CI 95% 1.17-7.70). Other risk factors did not show a significant association. In this study, we found a crude total prevalence of 0.84%, very close to the prevalence reported in Mexican population by the National Center for Blood Transfusion.

Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care

PubMed Central

Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

2015-01-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care. PMID:26834327

Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care.

PubMed

Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

2015-12-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care.

Prior HIV testing among STD patients in Guangdong Province, China: opportunities for expanding detection of sexually transmitted HIV infection.

PubMed

Tucker, Joseph D; Yang, Li-Gang; Yang, Bin; Young, Darwin; Henderson, Gail E; Huang, Shu-Jie; Lu, He-Kun; Chen, Xiang-Sheng; Cohen, Myron S

2012-03-01

Expanding HIV testing is important among individuals at increased risk for sexual HIV transmission in China, but little is known about prior HIV testing experiences among sexually transmitted disease (STD) patients. This cross-sectional study of 1792 outpatients from 6 public STD clinics in Guangdong Province recorded detailed information about ever having been tested for HIV infection in addition to sociodemographic variables, health seeking, clinical STD history, and HIV stigma using a validated survey instrument. A total of 456 (25.4%) of the STD patients in this sample had ever been tested for HIV infection. STD patients who were male, had higher income, more education, were at City A and City C, received STD services at public facilities, had used intravenous drugs, and had a history of an STD were more likely to ever receive an HIV test in multivariate analysis. Low perceived HIV risk was the most common reason for not receiving an HIV test. Only 7.7% of the sample reported fear of discrimination or loss of face as influencing their lack of HIV testing. Incomplete prior HIV screening among STD patients in China suggests the need for broadening HIV testing opportunities at STD clinics and similar clinical settings attended by those with increased sexual risk.

Use of the Means/Ends Test to Evaluate Public School Dress-Code Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Workman, Jane E.; Studak, Cathryn M.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this article is to explain how a means/ends test can be adapted for the school environment. Public school officials can use a means/ends test to document an analysis of whether dress-code policies will be effective in diminishing risks to the health, safety, or morality of the school population. Elements of policy evaluation--ends,…

Predictors of patients who will develop prolonged occult hypoperfusion following blunt trauma.

PubMed

Schulman, Andrew M; Claridge, Jeffrey A; Carr, Gordon; Diesen, Diana L; Young, Jeffrey S

2004-10-01

Prolonged occult hypoperfusion or POH (serum lactate >2.4 mmol/L persisting >12 hours from admission) represents a reversible risk factor for adverse outcomes following traumatic injury. We hypothesized that patients at increased risk for POH could be identified at the time of admission. Prospective data from adult trauma admissions between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2000 were analyzed. Potential risk factors for POH were determined by univariate analysis (p < or =0.10= significant). Significant factors were tested in a logistic regression model (LR) (p < or =0.05= significant). The predictive ability of the LR was tested by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis (p < or =0.05= significant). Three hundred seventy-eight patients were analyzed, 129 with POH. Injury Severity Score (ISS), emergency department Glasgow Coma Scale score, hypotension, and the individual Abbreviated Injury Scale score (AIS) for Head (H), Abdominal/Pelvic Viscera (A) and Pelvis/Bony Extremity (P) were significantly associated with POH. LR demonstrated that ISS, A-AIS > or =3 and P-AIS > or =3 were independent predictors of POH (p <0.05). ROC analysis of the LR equation was statistically significant (Area=0.69, p <0.001). We identified factors at admission that placed patients at higher risk for developing POH. Select patients may benefit from rapid, aggressive monitoring and resuscitation, possibly preventing POH and its associated morbidity and mortality.

Factors associated with hepatitis C infection among patients with skin diseases.

PubMed

Luksamijarulkul, Pipat; Chantavoraluk, Somjai

2013-12-01

The present study attempted to assess factors associated with positive anti-HCV among patients with skin diseases. A retrospective analysis of 3,496 subjects' history profiles from the HCV antibody surveillance projects performed from 2000 to 2007. Only 150 subject profiles with skin diseases were included in the analysis of factors associated with positive anti-HCV Patient profiles including socio-demographic parameters, the main risk behavior or risk exposure, types of skin diseases, anti-HIV status, and results of anti-HCV were analyzed using Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. Results revealed that only 10 from 150 studied patients (6.7%) were positive for anti-HCV antibody. Patient profiles including socio-demographic parameters, the main risk behavior or risk exposure, types of skin diseases, and anti-HIV status among patients with or without anti-HCV were compared and analyzed to assess factors associated with positive anti-HCV. It was found that patient's income, types of skin disease, and anti-HIV status were significantly associated with positive anti-HCV among this group, p = 0.0240, p = 0.0053 and p = 0.0462, respectively. This analysis found three studied factors including patient's income, types of skin disease, and anti-HIV status to be significantly associated with HCV infection in patients with skin diseases. However, a large-scale work should be done to confirm the present study.

Exploring knowledge of pre-eclampsia and views on a potential screening test in women with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Wotherspoon, Amy C; Young, Ian S; McCance, David R; Holmes, Valerie A

2017-07-01

to explore knowledge of pre-eclampsia and opinions on potential screening tests for pre-eclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews of women planning a pregnancy, currently pregnant or post-partum with experience of pre-eclampsia. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: eleven women with type 1 diabetes were recruited from a pre-pregnancy planning clinic or antenatal clinic. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the women, asking a series of open-ended questions about their current knowledge of pre-eclampsia and their views on screening for pre-eclampsia. Data analysis was conducted using inductive thematic analysis. four main themes were identified: Information, sources of stress, awareness and acceptability of screening. Generally, women's knowledge of pre-eclampsia was limited. Most did not appear to be aware of their increased risk of developing the disease. Similarly, the majority of women were unaware as to why their blood pressure and urine were checked regularly. The introduction of a screening test for pre-eclampsia was favoured, with only a small number of women raising concerns related to the screening tests. health care professionals need to raise awareness of pre-eclampsia in this high risk group. The introduction of a screening test for pre-eclampsia appears to be acceptable in this population, however, further research is required to validate these findings and also to explore the views of women in other high risk groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complement factor H Y402H variant and risk of age-related macular degeneration in Asians: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kondo, Naoshi; Bessho, Hiroaki; Honda, Shigeru; Negi, Akira

2011-02-01

To investigate whether the Y402H variant in the complement factor H gene is associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Asian populations. Meta-analysis of previous publications. Case-control groups of subjects with AMD and controls from 13 association studies. We performed a meta-analysis of the association between Y402H and AMD in Asian populations using data available from 13 case-control studies involving 3973 subjects. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed- and random-effects models. The Q-statistic test was used to assess heterogeneity, and Egger's test was used to evaluate publication bias. Sensitivity analysis, cumulative meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis were also performed. Allele and genotype frequencies of the Y402H variant. The Y402H variant showed a significant summary OR of 1.97 (95% CI, 1.54-2.52; P<0.001; allelic contrast model) per allele. Possession of at least 1 copy of the C allele increased the disease risk by 1.97-fold (95% CI, 1.63-2.39; P<0.001; dominant model) and accounted for 8.8% of the attributable risk of AMD in Asian populations. Sensitivity analysis indicated the robustness of our findings, and evidence of publication bias was not observed in our meta-analysis. Meta-regression analysis indicated no significant effect of baseline study characteristics on the summary effect size. Cumulative meta-analysis revealed that the summary ORs were stable and the 95% CIs narrowed with the accumulation of data over time. Our analysis provides substantial evidence that the Y402H variant is significantly associated with AMD in Asian populations. Our results expand the number of confirmed AMD susceptibility loci for Asians populations, which provide a better understanding of the genetic architecture underlying disease susceptibility and may advance the potential for preclinical prediction in future genetic tests by a combined evaluation of inherited susceptibility with previously established loci. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy: a Survey of Perspectives on Carrier Testing and Communication Within the Family.

PubMed

Hayes, Brenna; Hassed, Susan; Chaloner, Jae Lindsay; Aston, Christopher E; Guy, Carrie

2016-06-01

Carrier testing is widely available for multiple genetic conditions, and several professional organizations have created practice guidelines regarding appropriate clinical application and the testing of minors. Previous research has focused on carrier screening, predictive testing, and testing for X-linked conditions. However, family perspectives on carrier testing for X-linked lethal diseases have yet to be described. In this study, we explored communication within the family about carrier testing and the perspectives of mothers of sons with an X-linked lethal disease, Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Twenty-five mothers of sons with DMD participated in an anonymous online survey. Survey questions included multiple choice, Likert scale, and open ended, short answer questions. Analysis of the multiple choice and Likert scale questions revealed that most mothers preferred a gradual style of communication with their daughters regarding risk status. In addition, most participants reported having consulted with a genetic counselor and found it helpful. Comparisons between groups, analyzed using Fisher's exact tests, found no differences in preferred style due to mother's carrier status or having a daughter. Thematic analysis was conducted on responses to open ended questions. Themes identified included the impact of family implications, age and maturity, and a desire for autonomy regarding the decision to discuss and undergo carrier testing with at-risk daughters, particularly timing of these discussions. Implications for genetic counseling practice are discussed.

Evaluation of the risk of falling in institution-dwelling elderly: clinical tests versus biomechanical analysis of stepping-up.

PubMed

Michel-Pellegrino, Valérie; Hewson, David J; Drieux, Michèle; Duchêne, Jacques

2007-01-01

Falls in the elderly constitute a major socio-economic problem for modern healthcare. The aim of the study was to extract biomechanical parameters to indicate balance level and the risk of falling in the elderly. It is a preliminary work as part of the development of a home-test based on force-plate technology. Seven faller and 12 non-faller elderly subjects performed stepped up onto a forceplate. Each subject was tested once per weekday for three weeks. Tinetti, Mini Mental Scale test (MMS) and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) scores were measured before the experimentations. Temporal and ground reaction force parameters were measured. The Tinetti test was not correlated with falls in the following six-month period. In contrast, the biomechanical parameters related to the forces measured at foot-contact and to the durations of the phases of the stepping-up were correlated with fall, as well as with MMS and GDS. These results demonstrated that biomechanical parameters could be used as indicators of balance and risk of fall.

Predicting Geriatric Falls Following an Episode of Emergency Department Care: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Christopher R.; Avidan, Michael S.; Wildes, Tanya; Stark, Susan; Fowler, Susan A.; Lo, Alexander X.

2015-01-01

Background Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored. Objectives This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor’s accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity. Methods A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED. Results A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%. Conclusions This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk PMID:25293956

Predicting geriatric falls following an episode of emergency department care: a systematic review.

PubMed

Carpenter, Christopher R; Avidan, Michael S; Wildes, Tanya; Stark, Susan; Fowler, Susan A; Lo, Alexander X

2014-10-01

Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored. This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor's accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED. A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%. This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk. © 2014 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Analysis of KC-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

the use of real hardware such as electrohydraulic actuators , electrical units, and converter regulators (Andrus, 2010). The only feasible method for...worked with the MQ-9 as a test engineer and analyst for the programs IOT &E, RQ-4 as lead engineer and program lead for the block 3 and the block 4

Commercial Supersonics Technology Project - Status of Airport Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridges, James

2016-01-01

The Commercial Supersonic Technology Project has been developing databases, computational tools, and system models to prepare for a level 1 milestone, the Low Noise Propulsion Tech Challenge, to be delivered Sept 2016. Steps taken to prepare for the final validation test are given, including system analysis, code validation, and risk reduction testing.

Radon and lung cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed Central

Ford, E S; Kelly, A E; Teutsch, S M; Thacker, S B; Garbe, P L

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the cost-effectiveness of general and targeted strategies for residential radon testing and mitigation in the United States. METHODS: A decision-tree model was used to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of preventing radon-associated deaths from lung cancer. RESULTS: For a radon threshold of 4 pCi/L, the estimated costs to prevent 1 lung cancer death are about $3 million (154 lung cancer deaths prevented), or $480,000 per life-year saved, based on universal radon screening and mitigation, and about $2 million (104 lung cancer deaths prevented), or $330,000 per life-year saved, if testing and mitigation are confined to geographic areas at high risk for radon exposure. For mitigation undertaken after a single screening test and after a second confirmatory test, the estimated costs are about $920,000 and $520,000, respectively, to prevent a lung cancer death with universal screening and $130,000 and $80,000 per life-year for high risk screening. The numbers of preventable lung cancer deaths are 811 and 527 for universal and targeted approaches, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest possible alternatives to current recommendations. PMID:10076484

TNF-α-308 polymorphism and risk of digestive system cancers: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Guo, Xu-Feng; Wang, Jun; Yu, Shi-Jie; Song, Jia; Ji, Meng-Yao; Cao, Zhuo; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Wang, Jing; Dong, Wei-Guo

2013-12-28

To evaluate the association between the tumour necrosis factor alpha-308 (TNF-α-308) gene polymorphism and the risk of digestive system cancers. All eligible case-control studies published up to December 2012 were identified by searching PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and China National Knowledge Internet without language restrictions. The risk of digestive system cancers associated with the TNF-α-308 polymorphism was estimated for each study using odds ratio (OR) together with its 95%CI, respectively. Cochrane Collaboration RevMan 5.1 was used to perform the analysis. A χ²-test-based Q statistic test and an I² test were performed to assess the between-study heterogeneity. When the Q test was significant (P < 0.05) or I² > 50%, the random effects model was used, otherwise the fixed effects model was used. Fifty-eight studies from fifty-five publications with a total of 9986 cancer patients and 15511 healthy controls were included. Overall, a significant association was found between the TNF-α-308 polymorphism and the risk of digestive system cancers [dominant model: OR = 1.23, 95%CI: 1.09-1.39, (G/A) vs (G/G): OR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.02-1.28, (A/A) vs (G/G): OR = 1.44, 95%CI: 1.19-1.73, recessive model: OR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.15-1.66]. Furthermore, when the analysis was stratified by ethnicity, similar results were observed in both the Asian and Caucasian populations, except for the dominant model and heterozygote comparisons in the Asian population [dominant model: OR = 1.24, 95%CI: 0.99-1.56, (G/A) vs (G/G): OR = 1.09, 95%CI: 0.96-1.24]. When the cancer type subgroups were examined, similar results were detected in gastric and hepatocellular carcinomas; however, no significant association was observed among other digestive system cancers. The TNF-α-308 gene polymorphism may be significantly associated with the risk of gastric and hepatocellular carcinomas, but not colorectal, pancreatic, or oesophageal cancer, in the Asian population.

Cumulative Socioeconomic Status Risk, Allostatic Load, and Adjustment: A Prospective Latent Profile Analysis with Contextual and Genetic Protective Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brody, Gene H.; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-Fu; Kogan, Steven M.; Evans, Gary W.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L.; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Philibert, Robert A.

2013-01-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental…

Use of anti-Müllerian hormone testing during ovarian reserve screening to identify women at risk of polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Safier, Lauren Z; Grossman, Lisa C; Chan, Cariann W; Sauer, Mark V; Lobo, Rogerio A; Douglas, Nataki C

2016-10-01

To assess the applicability of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) testing in the identification of women at risk for polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) when AMH is used in ovarian reserve screening in the general population. A secondary analysis was undertaken of a large cross-sectional study. Women aged 27-37years, presently delaying childbearing but interested in future fertility, completed an online questionnaire to assess knowledge and attitudes about ovarian reserve testing, and underwent serum AMH testing between October 2014 and April 2015 in New York, NY, USA. For the secondary analysis, women considered to have elevated AMH levels (≥4.7ng/mL) were invited for physical examination and transvaginal ultrasonography. Among 97 women who underwent AMH testing, 32 (33.0%) had elevated AMH levels. Hyperandrogenism was reported by 8 (25.0%) women with elevated AMH and none with AMH concentrations lower than 4.7ng/mL (P<0.001). Irregular menstrual cycles before hormonal contraceptive use were reported by 16 (24.6%) of 65 women with AMH concentrations lower than 4.7ng/mL and 11 (34.4%) with elevated AMH (P=0.34). Of the 20 women with elevated AMH who returned for further evaluation, 16 (80.0%) had polycystic ovaries and 13 (65.0%) were diagnosed with PCOS (Rotterdam criteria). When AMH levels are used as a screening test for fertility, elevated concentrations can identify women at risk for PCOS. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodegradability and ecotoxicitiy of tramadol, ranitidine, and their photoderivatives in the aquatic environment.

PubMed

Bergheim, Marlies; Gieré, Reto; Kümmerer, Klaus

2012-01-01

This study was designed to assess the fate and the overall potential impacts of the widely prescribed drugs ranitidine and tramadol after their introduction into the aquatic environment. The probability to detect these two drugs in the aquatic environment was studied by analyzing their abiotic and biotic degradation properties. For this purpose, samples were irradiated with different light sources, and three widely used biodegradability tests from the OECD series, the closed bottle test (OECD 301 D), the manometric respirometry test (OECD 301 F) and the Zahn-Wellens test (OECD 302 B), were conducted. The ecotoxicity of the photolytically formed transformation products was assessed by performing the bacterial growth inhibition test (EN ISO 10712). Furthermore, quantitative structure-activity relationship analysis and a risk analysis based on the calculation of the predicted environmental concentrations have also been conducted to assess the environmental risk potential of the transformation products. The possible formation of stable products by microbial or photolytical transformation has been investigated with DOC and LC-MS analytics. In the present study, neither ranitidine, nor tramadol, nor their photoderivatives were found to be readily or inherently biodegradable according to test guidelines. The photolytic transformation was faster under a UV lamp compared to the reaction under an Xe lamp with a spectrum that mimics sunlight. No chronic toxicity against bacteria was found for ranitidine or its photolytic decomposition products, but a low toxicity was detected for the resulting mixture of the photolytic transformation products of tramadol. The study demonstrates that transformation products may have a higher environmental risk potential than the respective parent compounds.

Traditional risk factors as determinants of heart rate recovery in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silaban, Sanny; Afif Siregar, A.; Hasan, H.; Aryfa Andra, C.

2018-03-01

The impact of Traditional risk factors on heart rate recovery (HRR) has not been studied in patients Diabetes Mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease (CAD). For this reason, we sought to determine the association between HRR as cardiac autonomic dysfunction marker and traditonal risk factors. The study was conducted with a cross-sectional study involving 89 patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus without known having coronary artery disease. The data was taken through anamnese and laboratory tests, and subjects who met the criteria were tested for a treadmill exercise to assess heart rate recovery in the first minute. In bivariate analysis Dyslipidemia, Hypertension, smoker, age, duration of DM≥ 5 years, HbA1C ≥7.5, Peak Heart rate, functional capacity and ST depression ischemic have an association with heart rate recovery. In multivariate analysis patients with hyper triglyceride, smoker, overweight, duration of diabetes ≥ five years and HbA1C ≥ 7,5 have lower heart rate recovery significantly. Traditional risk factors are determinant factors for heart rate recovery in patients with Diabetes Mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease.

Projected lifetime cancer risks from exposure to regional radioactive fallout in the Marshall Islands.

PubMed

Land, Charles E; Bouville, André; Apostoaei, Iulian; Simon, Steven L

2010-08-01

Radioactive fallout from nuclear test detonations during 1946-1958 at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls in the Marshall Islands (MI) exposed populations living elsewhere in the MI archipelago. A comprehensive analysis, presented in seven companion papers, has produced estimates of tissue-specific radiation absorbed dose to MI residents at all historically inhabited atolls from internal (ingested) and external irradiation resulting from exposure to radioactive fallout, by calendar year, and by age of the population at time of exposure. The present report deals, for the first time, with the implications of these doses for cancer risk among exposed members of the MI population. Radiation doses differed by geographic location and year of birth, and radiation-related cancer risk depends upon age at exposure and age at observation for risk. Using dose-response models based on committee reports published by the National Research Council and the National Institutes of Health, we project that, during the lifetimes of members of the MI population potentially exposed to ionizing radiation from weapons test fallout deposited during the testing period (1948-1958) and from residual radioactive sources during the subsequent 12 y (1959-1970), perhaps 1.6% (with 90% uncertainty range 0.4% to 3.4%) of all cancers might be attributable to fallout-related radiation exposures. By sub-population, the projected proportion of cancers attributable to radiation from fallout from all nuclear tests conducted in the Marshall Islands is 55% (28% to 69%) among 82 persons exposed in 1954 on Rongelap and Ailinginae, 10% (2.4% to 22%) for 157 persons exposed on Utrik, and 2.2% (0.5% to 4.8%) and 0.8% (0.2% to 1.8%), respectively, for the much larger populations exposed in mid-latitude locations including Kwajalein and in southern locations including Majuro. By cancer type, point estimates of attributable risk varied, by location, between 12% and 95% for thyroid cancer, between 2% and 78% for leukemia, and between 0.8% and 55% for all cancers combined. The largest projected risks pertain to the Rongelap Island community and the lowest risks pertain to the populations resident on the southern-most atolls. While the projected cancer risks are smaller than those estimated by the National Cancer Institute in a more simplistic analysis conducted in 2004, these estimates of cancer risk are the best available as they are based on the most detailed dose reconstruction to date and comprehensively include populations at all locations and dose contributions from all nuclear tests.

Considerations in using linkage analysis as a presymptomatic test for Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Farrer, L A; Myers, R H; Cupples, L A; Conneally, P M

1988-09-01

The polymorphic locus D4S10 that is genetically linked to the locus for Huntington's disease (HD) has made possible a presymptomatic test for those at risk. Because the symptoms of this progressively debilitating and fatal illness are not usually manifest until adulthood, the outcome of the test will influence major decisions about career, marriage, and procreation. Several differential diagnoses must be considered before using the test if HD is not confirmed in at least one family member. Review of a large number of pedigrees has shown that 40% of persons at risk do not have appropriate family structure for a linkage test. Furthermore, uncooperative or inaccessible relatives may make this test infeasible for many others who wish to be tested. Linkage phase, which must be known in the affected parent for an informative test, can be determined using one or more of 12 probe-enzyme combinations for D4S10. Although the polymorphism information content (PIC) value for any one RFLP is less than 40%, the PIC value for the haplotype of the two G8 HindIII, pK083 EcoRI, and R7 BglII RFLPs is greater than 88%. We have developed a scheme to incorporate linkage data and age at onset information adjusted for censored observations, sex of affected parent, and familial correlation for age at onset, using the computer program MLINK for calculation of risk of having HD. Simulated experiments showed that proper age at onset adjustment is crucial to the calculation of the probability of risk. A formal presymptomatic testing protocol, including pre- and post-test counselling, psychological testing, and paternity testing is recommended. Many of these considerations are illustrated in several actual test cases.

Structural Element Testing in Support of the Design of the NASA Composite Crew Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kellas, Sotiris; Jackson, Wade C.; Thesken, John C.; Schleicher, Eric; Wagner, Perry; Kirsch, Michael T.

2012-01-01

In January 2007, the NASA Administrator and Associate Administrator for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate chartered the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to design, build, and test a full-scale Composite Crew Module (CCM). For the design and manufacturing of the CCM, the team adopted the building block approach where design and manufacturing risks were mitigated through manufacturing trials and structural testing at various levels of complexity. Following NASA's Structural Design Verification Requirements, a further objective was the verification of design analysis methods and the provision of design data for critical structural features. Test articles increasing in complexity from basic material characterization coupons through structural feature elements and large structural components, to full-scale structures were evaluated. This paper discusses only four elements tests three of which include joints and one that includes a tapering honeycomb core detail. For each test series included are specimen details, instrumentation, test results, a brief analysis description, test analysis correlation and conclusions.

HIV Testing Among Transgender Women and Men - 27 States and Guam, 2014-2015.

PubMed

Pitasi, Marc A; Oraka, Emeka; Clark, Hollie; Town, Machell; DiNenno, Elizabeth A

2017-08-25

Transgender persons are at high risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection; in a recent analysis of the results of over nine million CDC funded HIV tests, transgender women* had the highest percentage of confirmed positive results (2.7%) of any gender category (1). Transgender men, † particularly those who have sex with cisgender § men, are also at high risk for infection (2). HIV testing is critical for detecting and treating persons who are infected and delivering preventive services to those who are uninfected. CDC recommends that persons at high risk for HIV infection be screened for HIV at least annually, although transgender persons are not specified in the current recommendations. CDC analyzed data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to describe HIV testing among transgender women and men and two cisgender comparison groups in 27 states and Guam. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, transgender women and men had a lower prevalence of ever testing and past year testing for HIV (35.6% and 31.6% ever, and 10.0% and 10.2% past year, respectively) compared with cisgender gay and bisexual men (61.8% ever and 21.6% past year) and instead reported testing at levels comparable to cisgender heterosexual men and women (35.2% ever, and 8.6% past year). This finding suggests that transgender women and men might not be sufficiently reached by current HIV testing measures. Tailoring HIV testing activities to overcome the unique barriers faced by transgender women and men might increase rates of testing among these populations.

Introduction to Flight Test Engineering (Introduction aux techniques des essais en vol)

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

or aircraft parameters • Calculations in the frequency domain ( Fast Fourier Transform) • Data analysis with dedicated software for: • Signal...density Fast Fourier Transform Transfer function analysis Frequency response analysis Etc. PRESENTATION Color/black & white Display screen...envelope by operating the airplane at increasing ranges - representing increasing risk - of engine operation, airspeeds both fast and slow, altitude

Validation of the Child and Youth Resilience Measure (CYRM-28) on a Sample of At-Risk New Zealand Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanders, Jackie; Munford, Robyn; Thimasarn-Anwar, Tewaporn; Liebenberg, Linda

2017-01-01

Purpose: This article reports on an examination of the psychometric properties of the 28-item Child and Youth Resilience Measure (CYRM-28). Methods: Exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, Cronbach's a, "t"-tests, correlations, and multivariate analysis of variance were applied to data collected via interviews from 593…

Meta-Analysis of Medical Regimen Adherence Outcomes in Pediatric Solid Organ Transplantation*

PubMed Central

Dew, Mary Amanda; DeVito Dabbs, Annette; Myaskovsky, Larissa; Shyu, Susan; Shellmer, Diana A.; DiMartini, Andrea F.; Steel, Jennifer; Unruh, Mark; Switzer, Galen E.; Shapiro, Ron; Greenhouse, Joel B.

2009-01-01

Background Adherence to the medical regimen after pediatric organ transplantation is important for maximizing good clinical outcomes. However, the literature provides inconsistent evidence regarding prevalence and risk factors for nonadherence posttransplant. Methods A total of 61 studies (30 kidney, 18 liver, 8 heart, 2 lung/heart-lung, and 3 with mixed recipient samples) were included in a meta-analysis. Average rates of nonadherence to 6 areas of the regimen, and correlations of potential risk factors with nonadherence, were calculated. Results Across all types of transplantation, nonadherence to clinic appointments and tests was most prevalent, at 12.9 cases per 100 patients per year (PPY). The immunosuppression nonadherence rate was 6 cases per 100 PPY. Nonadherence to substance use restrictions, diet, exercise and other healthcare requirements ranged from 0.6 to 8 cases per 100 PPY. Only the rate of nonadherence to clinic appointments and tests varied by transplant type: heart recipients had the lowest rate (4.6 cases per 100 PPY vs. 12.7–18.8 cases per 100 PPY in other recipients). Older age of the child, family functioning (greater parental distress, lower family cohesion), and the child’s psychological status (poorer behavioral functioning, greater distress) were among the psychosocial characteristics significantly correlated with poorer adherence. These correlations were small to modest in size (r =.12–.18). Conclusions These nonadherence rates provide benchmarks for clinicians to use to estimate patient risk. The identified psychosocial correlates of nonadherence are potential targets for intervention. Future studies should focus on improving the prediction of nonadherence risk and on testing interventions to reduce risk. PMID:19741474

Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) Tool to Support Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

McConnell, Emma R.; Bell, Shannon M.; Cote, Ila; Wang, Rong-Lin; Perkins, Edward J.; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gong, Ping; Burgoon, Lyle D.

2014-01-01

Environmental health risk assessors are challenged to understand and incorporate new data streams as the field of toxicology continues to adopt new molecular and systems biology technologies. Systematic screening reviews can help risk assessors and assessment teams determine which studies to consider for inclusion in a human health assessment. A tool for systematic reviews should be standardized and transparent in order to consistently determine which studies meet minimum quality criteria prior to performing in-depth analyses of the data. The Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool is focused on assisting risk assessment support teams in performing systematic reviews of transcriptomic studies. SOAR is a spreadsheet tool of 35 objective questions developed by domain experts, focused on transcriptomic microarray studies, and including four main topics: test system, test substance, experimental design, and microarray data. The tool will be used as a guide to identify studies that meet basic published quality criteria, such as those defined by the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment standard and the Toxicological Data Reliability Assessment Tool. Seven scientists were recruited to test the tool by using it to independently rate 15 published manuscripts that study chemical exposures with microarrays. Using their feedback, questions were weighted based on importance of the information and a suitability cutoff was set for each of the four topic sections. The final validation resulted in 100% agreement between the users on four separate manuscripts, showing that the SOAR tool may be used to facilitate the standardized and transparent screening of microarray literature for environmental human health risk assessment. PMID:25531884

Sero-epidemiological survey and risk factors associated with bovine brucellosis among slaughtered cattle in Nigeria.

PubMed

Akinseye, Victor O; Adesokan, Hezekiah K; Ogugua, Akwoba J; Adedoyin, Folashade J; Otu, Patricia I; Kwaghe, Ayi V; Kolawole, Noah O; Okoro, Oyinye J; Agada, Charity A; Tade, Adeniyi O; Faleke, Olufemi O; Okeke, Anyanwu L; Akanbi, Ibikunle M; Ibitoye, Mofoluwake M; Dipeolu, Morenike O; Dale, Emma J; Lorraine, Perrett; Taylor, Andrew V; Awosanya, Emmanuel A; Cadmus, Eniola O; Stack, Judy A; Cadmus, Simeon I

2016-05-12

Bovine brucellosis is endemic in Nigeria; however, limited data exist on nationwide studies and risk factors associated with the disease. Using a cross-sectional sero-epidemiological survey, we determined the prevalence of and risk factors for brucellosis in slaughtered cattle in three geographical regions of Nigeria. Serum samples from randomly selected unvaccinated cattle slaughtered over a period of 3 years (between December 2010 and September 2013) from northern, southern and south-western Nigeria were tested for antibodies to Brucella abortus using the Rose Bengal test. Data associated with risk factors of brucellosis were analysed by Stata Version 12. In all, 8105 cattle were screened. An overall seroprevalence of 3.9% (315/8105) was recorded by the Rose Bengal test, with 3.8%, 3.4% and 4.0% from the northern, southern and south-western regions, respectively. Bivariate analysis showed that cattle screened in northern Nigeria were less likely to be seropositive for antibodies to Brucella spp. than those from south-western Nigeria (odds ratio = 0.94; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.22). However, logistic regression analysis revealed that breed ( p = 0.04) and sex ( p £ 0.0001) of cattle were statistically significant for seropositivity to Brucella spp. The study found that brucellosis was endemic at a low prevalence among slaughtered cattle in Nigeria, with sex and breed of cattle being significant risk factors. Considering the public health implications of brucellosis, we advocate coordinated surveillance for the disease among diverse cattle populations in Nigeria, as is carried out in most developed countries.

The effectiveness of risk management program on pediatric nurses' medication error.

PubMed

Dehghan-Nayeri, Nahid; Bayat, Fariba; Salehi, Tahmineh; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat

2013-09-01

Medication therapy is one of the most complex and high-risk clinical processes that nurses deal with. Medication error is the most common type of error that brings about damage and death to patients, especially pediatric ones. However, these errors are preventable. Identifying and preventing undesirable events leading to medication errors are the main risk management activities. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of a risk management program on the pediatric nurses' medication error rate. This study is a quasi-experimental one with a comparison group. In this study, 200 nurses were recruited from two main pediatric hospitals in Tehran. In the experimental hospital, we applied the risk management program for a period of 6 months. Nurses of the control hospital did the hospital routine schedule. A pre- and post-test was performed to measure the frequency of the medication error events. SPSS software, t-test, and regression analysis were used for data analysis. After the intervention, the medication error rate of nurses at the experimental hospital was significantly lower (P < 0.001) and the error-reporting rate was higher (P < 0.007) compared to before the intervention and also in comparison to the nurses of the control hospital. Based on the results of this study and taking into account the high-risk nature of the medical environment, applying the quality-control programs such as risk management can effectively prevent the occurrence of the hospital undesirable events. Nursing mangers can reduce the medication error rate by applying risk management programs. However, this program cannot succeed without nurses' cooperation.

Health risk factors associated with presenteeism in a Chinese enterprise.

PubMed

Yu, J; Wang, S; Yu, X

2015-12-01

Chronic health problems are prevalent in China and may lead to loss of work productivity through presenteeism. To investigate the prevalence of potential risk factors for presenteeism in Chinese workers and the strength of their association with reported presenteeism. A cross-sectional survey of employees in a Chinese petrochemical corporation included a medical examination report and questionnaire data on demographic characteristics, potential risk factors for presenteeism and presenteeism evaluation. Data were analysed using Pearson's chi-square tests, t-tests and logistic regression modelling. There were 1506 responses available for analysis; response rate 92%. The prevalence of presenteeism was 15%. Univariate analysis indicated a significantly higher prevalence of presenteeism in employees who were male, age ≤35 years, single, divorced or widowed and overweight or obese. Higher presenteeism was found in participants with high blood pressure, hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, insufficient physical activity, cigarette smoking, alcohol use, insufficient cereal intake, life dissatisfaction and job dissatisfaction. The prevalence of presenteeism was significantly associated with the number of potential risk factors. Logistic regression disclosed six independent risk factors associated with presenteeism: hypercholesterolemia, high blood pressure, insufficient physical activity, alcohol drinking, insufficient cereal intake and life dissatisfaction. Chronic conditions, health risk factors and presenteeism were prevalent in employees of a Chinese petrochemical corporation. Risk factors for other health conditions were associated with presenteeism. Health management programmes should be implemented to reduce risk factors and promote the health of employees in an effort to reduce presenteeism. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Content Analysis of Informed Consent for Whole Genome Sequencing Offered by Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Testing Companies.

PubMed

Niemiec, Emilia; Borry, Pascal; Pinxten, Wim; Howard, Heidi Carmen

2016-12-01

Whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) have become increasingly available in the research and clinical settings and are now also being offered by direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing (GT) companies. This offer can be perceived as amplifying the already identified concerns regarding adequacy of informed consent (IC) for both WES/WGS and the DTC GT context. We performed a qualitative content analysis of Websites of four companies offering WES/WGS DTC regarding the following elements of IC: pre-test counseling, benefits and risks, and incidental findings (IFs). The analysis revealed concerns, including the potential lack of pre-test counseling in three of the companies studied, missing relevant information in the risks and benefits sections, and potentially misleading information for consumers. Regarding IFs, only one company, which provides opportunistic screening, provides basic information about their management. In conclusion, some of the information (and related practices) present on the companies' Web pages salient to the consent process are not adequate in reference to recommendations for IC for WGS or WES in the clinical context. Requisite resources should be allocated to ensure that commercial companies are offering high-throughput sequencing under responsible conditions, including an adequate consent process. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

What's to Be Done About Laboratory Quality? Process Indicators, Laboratory Stewardship, the Outcomes Problem, Risk Assessment, and Economic Value: Responding to Contemporary Global Challenges.

PubMed

Meier, Frederick A; Badrick, Tony C; Sikaris, Kenneth A

2018-02-17

For 50 years, structure, process, and outcomes measures have assessed health care quality. For clinical laboratories, structural quality has generally been assessed by inspection. For assessing process, quality indicators (QIs), statistical monitors of steps in the clinical laboratory total testing, have proliferated across the globe. Connections between structural and process laboratory measures and patient outcomes, however, have rarely been demonstrated. To inform further development of clinical laboratory quality systems, we conducted a selective but worldwide review of publications on clinical laboratory quality assessment. Some QIs, like seven generic College of American Pathologists Q-Tracks monitors, have demonstrated significant process improvement; other measures have uncovered critical opportunities to improve test selection and result management. The College of Pathologists of Australasia Key Indicator Monitoring and Management System has deployed risk calculations, introduced from failure mode effects analysis, as surrogate measures for outcomes. Showing economic value from clinical laboratory testing quality is a challenge. Clinical laboratories should converge on fewer (7-14) rather than more (21-35) process monitors; monitors should cover all steps of the testing process under laboratory control and include especially high-risk specimen-quality QIs. Clinical laboratory stewardship, the combination of education interventions among clinician test orderers and report consumers with revision of test order formats and result reporting schemes, improves test ordering, but improving result reception is more difficult. Risk calculation reorders the importance of quality monitors by balancing three probabilities: defect frequency, weight of potential harm, and detection difficulty. The triple approach of (1) a more focused suite of generic consensus quality indicators, (2) more active clinical laboratory testing stewardship, and (3) integration of formal risk assessment, rather than competing with economic value, enhances it.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention based on a rapid human papillomavirus screening test in a high-risk region of China.

PubMed

Levin, Carol E; Sellors, John; Shi, Ju-Fang; Ma, Li; Qiao, You-lin; Ortendahl, Jesse; O'Shea, Meredith K H; Goldie, Sue J

2010-09-01

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of a new, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV)-DNA screening test for cervical cancer prevention in the high-risk region of Shanxi, China. Using micro-costing methods, we estimated the resources needed to implement preventive strategies using cervical cytology or HPV-DNA testing, including the Hybrid Capture 2 (hc2) test (QIAGEN Corp., Gaithersburg, MD) and the rapid HPV-DNA careHPV test (QIAGEN). Data were used in a previously published model and empirically calibrated to country-specific epidemiological data. Strategies differed by initial test, targeted age, frequency of screening, number of clinic visits required (1, 2 or 3) and service delivery setting (national, county and township levels). Outcomes included lifetime risk of cancer, years of life saved (YLS), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost per YLS). For all screening frequencies, the most efficient strategy used 2-visit rapid HPV-DNA testing at the county level, including screening and diagnostics in the first visit, and treatment in the second visit. Screening at ages 35, 40 and 45 reduced cancer risk by 50% among women compliant with all 3 screening rounds, and was US$ 150 per YLS, compared with this same strategy applied twice per lifetime. This would be considered very cost-effective evaluated against China's per-capita gross domestic product (US$ 1,702). By enhancing the linkage between screening and treatment through a reduced number of visits, rapid HPV-DNA testing 3 times per lifetime is more effective than traditional cytology, and is likely to be cost-effective in high-risk regions of China.

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Concern and risk perception of osteoporosis and fracture among post-menopausal Australian women: results from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) cohort.

PubMed

Barcenilla-Wong, A L; Chen, J S; March, L M

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify factors associated with concern and perception of risks of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures and determine whether bone mineral density (BMD) testing influenced concern and risk perception. Study subjects (n = 1,082, age 55-94 years) were female Australian participants of the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). Self-administered questionnaires were sent annually from 2007 to 2010. Study outcomes included 'concern about osteoporosis', 'perception of getting osteoporosis' and 'perception of fracture risk' compared to similar aged women. The closest post-BMD testing or baseline questionnaires were used for women with and without BMD testing, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression was used for the analysis. BMD testing, prior fracture after age 45, younger age and lower self-reported general health were significantly associated with being 'very' or 'somewhat concerned' about osteoporosis and having a 'much higher' or 'little higher' risk perception of osteoporosis and fractures. A poorer BMD result was associated with higher concern and higher risk perceptions. The presence of comorbidities, having ≥2 falls in the preceding year and maternal osteoporosis were associated with higher concern. Maternal osteoporosis, presence of comorbidities, weight loss of ≥5 kg in the preceding year and low body mass index were associated with higher perceptions of osteoporosis risk. Women's concern and risk perception of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures were reasonably well founded. However, increasing age, height loss, smoking and drinking were not associated with concern and perception despite being known osteoporosis risk factors. These factors should be considered in planning for education and awareness raising programmes.

Circulating microRNA signature as liquid-biopsy to monitor lung cancer in low-dose computed tomography screening.

PubMed

Sestini, Stefano; Boeri, Mattia; Marchiano, Alfonso; Pelosi, Giuseppe; Galeone, Carlotta; Verri, Carla; Suatoni, Paola; Sverzellati, Nicola; La Vecchia, Carlo; Sozzi, Gabriella; Pastorino, Ugo

2015-10-20

Liquid biopsies can detect biomarkers carrying information on the development and progression of cancer. We demonstrated that a 24 plasma-based microRNA signature classifier (MSC) was capable of increasing the specificity of low dose computed tomography (LDCT) in a lung cancer screening trial. In the present study, we tested the prognostic performance of MSC, and its ability to monitor disease status recurrence in LDCT screening-detected lung cancers.Between 2000 and 2010, 3411 heavy smokers enrolled in two screening programmes, underwent annual or biennial LDCT. During the first five years of screening, 84 lung cancer patients were classified according to one of the three MSC levels of risk: high, intermediate or low. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed according to MSC and clinico-pathological information. Follow-up MSC analysis was performed on longitudinal plasma samples (n = 100) collected from 31 patients before and after surgical resection.Five-year survival was 88.9% for low risk, 79.5% for intermediate risk and 40.1% for high risk MSC (p = 0.001). The prognostic power of MSC persisted after adjusting for tumor stage (p = 0.02) and when the analysis was restricted to LDCT-detected cases after exclusion of interval cancers (p < 0.001). The MSC risk level decreased after surgery in 76% of the 25 high-intermediate subjects who remained disease free, whereas in relapsing patients an increase of the MSC risk level was observed at the time of detection of second primary tumor or metastatic progression.These results encourage exploiting the MSC test for lung cancer monitoring in LDCT screening for lung cancer.

Performance of FDG-PET/CT in solitary pulmonary nodule based on pre-test likelihood of malignancy: results from the ITALIAN retrospective multicenter trial.

PubMed

Evangelista, Laura; Cuocolo, Alberto; Pace, Leonardo; Mansi, Luigi; Del Vecchio, Silvana; Miletto, Paolo; Sanfilippo, Silvia; Pellegrino, Sara; Guerra, Luca; Pepe, Giovanna; Peluso, Giuseppina; Salvatore, Marco; Galicchio, Rosj; Zuffante, Michele; Annunziata, Salvatore; Farsad, Mohsen; Chiaravalloti, Agostino; Spadafora, Marco

2018-05-07

The aim of this study was to determine the performance of 18 F-FDG-PET/CT in patients with solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN), stratifying the risk according to the likelihood of pulmonary malignancy. FDG-PET/CT of 502 patients, stratified for pre-test cancer risk, were retrospectively analyzed. FDG uptake in SPN was assessed by a 4-point scoring system and semiquantitative analysis using the ratio between SUVmax in SPN and SUVmean in mediastinal blood pool (BP) and between SUVmax in SPN and SUVmean in liver (L). Histopathology and/or follow-up data were used as standard of reference. SPN was malignant in 180 (36%) patients, benign in 175 (35%), and indeterminate in 147 (29%). The 355 patients with a definitive SPN nature (malignant or benign) were considered for the analysis. Considering FDG uptake ≥ 2, sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, and accuracy were 85.6%, 85.7%, 86%, 85.2%, and 85.6% respectively. Sensitivity and PPV were higher (P < 0.05) in intermediate and high-risk patients, while specificity and NPV were higher (P < 0.05) in low-risk patients. On receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the cut-offs for better discrimination between benign and malignant SPN were 1.56 (sensitivity 81% and specificity 87%) and 1.12 (sensitivity 81% and specificity 86%) for SUVmax/SUVmeanBP and SUVmax/SUVmeanL respectively. In intermediate and high-risk patients, including the SUVmax/SUVmeanBP, the specificity shifted from 85% and 50% to 100%. Visual FDG-PET/CT has an acceptable performance in patients with SPN, but accuracy improves when SUVratios are considered, particularly in patients with intermediate and high risk of malignancy.

Randomized noninferiority clinical trial evaluating 3 commercial dry cow mastitis preparations: II. Cow health and performance in early lactation.

PubMed

Arruda, A G; Godden, S; Rapnicki, P; Gorden, P; Timms, L; Aly, S S; Lehenbauer, T W; Champagne, J

2013-10-01

The objective of this randomized noninferiority clinical trial was to compare the effect of treatment with 3 different dry cow therapy formulations at dry-off on cow-level health and production parameters in the first 100 d in milk (DIM) in the subsequent lactation, including 305-d mature-equivalent (305 ME) milk production, linear score (LS), risk for the cow experiencing a clinical mastitis event, risk for culling or death, and risk for pregnancy by 100 DIM. A total of 1,091 cows from 6 commercial dairy herds in 4 states (California, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) were randomly assigned at dry-off to receive treatment with 1 of 3 commercial products: Quartermaster (QT; Zoetis Animal Health, Madison, NJ), Spectramast DC (SP; Zoetis Animal Health) or ToMorrow Dry Cow (TM; Boehringer Ingelheim Vetmedica Inc., St Joseph, MO). All clinical mastitis, pregnancy, culling, and death events occurring in the first 100 DIM were recorded by farm staff using an on-farm electronic record-keeping system. Dairy Herd Improvement Association test-day records of milk production and milk component testing were retrieved electronically. Mixed linear regression analysis was used to describe the effect of treatment on 305ME milk production and LS recorded on the last Dairy Herd Improvement Association test day before 100 DIM. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to describe the effect of treatment on risk for experiencing a case of clinical mastitis, risk for leaving the herd, and risk for pregnancy between calving and 100 DIM. Results showed no effect of treatment on adjusted mean 305 ME milk production (QT=11,759 kg, SP=11,574 kg, and TM=11,761 kg) or adjusted mean LS (QT=1.8, SP=1.9, and TM=1.6) on the last test day before 100 DIM. Similarly, no effect of treatment was observed on risk for a clinical mastitis event (QT=14.8%, SP=12.7%, and TM=15.0%), risk for leaving the herd (QT=7.5%, SP=9.2%, and TM=10.3%), or risk for pregnancy (QT=31.5%, SP=26.1%, and TM=26.9%) between calving and 100 DIM. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of the statin therapy on biochemical laboratory tests--a chemometrics study.

PubMed

Durceková, Tatiana; Mocák, Ján; Boronová, Katarína; Balla, Ján

2011-01-05

Statins are the first-line choice for lowering total and LDL cholesterol levels and very important medicaments for reducing the risk of coronary artery disease. The aim of this study is therefore assessment of the results of biochemical tests characterizing the condition of 172 patients before and after administration of statins. For this purpose, several chemometric tools, namely principal component analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, logistic regression, KNN classification, ROC analysis, descriptive statistics and ANOVA were used. Mutual relations of 11 biochemical laboratory tests, the patient's age and gender were investigated in detail. Achieved results enable to evaluate the extent of the statin treatment in each individual case. They may also help in monitoring the dynamic progression of the disease. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of condomless anal intercourse and recent HIV testing and their associated factors among men who have sex with men in Hangzhou, China: A respondent-driven sampling survey.

PubMed

Li, Runhua; Wang, Hui; Pan, Xiaohong; Ma, Qiaoqin; Chen, Lin; Zhou, Xin; Jiang, Tingting; He, Lin; Chen, Junfang; Zhang, Xingliang; Luo, Yan; Xi, Shengjun; Lv, Xin; Xia, Shichang

2017-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are a large high-risk population for HIV infection in recent years in China. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Hangzhou, China, to determine rates of condomless anal intercourse (CAI), recent HIV testing (in the recent year) and associated factors using respondent-driven sampling. Questionnaires using face-to-face interviews were employed to collect data on sexual risk behaviors and HIV testing. Five hundred eleven MSM were recruited, of which 459 (89.8%) had anal intercourse in the past 6 months. Of these 459 participants, 457 (99.6%) answered whether they had taken an HIV test in the recent year, so only their data were analyzed. Weighted data were analyzed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The CAI rate with male partners in the past 6 months was 43.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.0-51.5%), while the rate of condomless vaginal intercourse (CVI) was 21.6% (95% CI, 15.6-32.3%). The prevalence of recent HIV testing was 56.8% (95% CI, 48.7-66.5%), while the prevalence of HIV and syphilis were 8.8% and 6.5%, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that CAI was associated with earlier homosexual debut, suicidal inclinations, childhood sexual abuse, HIV testing in the recent year, and lower estimate of HIV prevalence. Recent HIV testing was associated with homosexual debut age, engaging in CAI with male partners in the past 6 months, having oral sex in the past 6 months, self-perceived higher likelihood of HIV infection, knowing about antiretroviral therapy for HIV/AIDS, receiving AIDS/sexually transmitted infection (STI) interventions in the past year, and syphilis infection. Given high prevalence of HIV and syphilis, high levels of CAI and CVI, and low HIV testing rate, the results indicated high risk of HIV infection and transmission among MSM. HIV prevention interventions should target MSM with early homosexual debut and psychosocial health problems, while HIV/AIDS education among MSM should focus on increasing knowledge of HIV risk, estimated HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy, and improving risk perception of HIV acquisition.

A Discrete Event Simulation Model to Assess the Economic Value of a Hypothetical Pharmacogenomics Test for Statin-Induced Myopathy in Patients Initiating a Statin in Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention.

PubMed

Mitchell, Dominic; Guertin, Jason R; Dubois, Anick; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Iliza, Ange Christelle; Fanton-Aita, Fiorella; Matteau, Alexis; LeLorier, Jacques

2018-04-01

Statin (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor) therapy is the mainstay dyslipidemia treatment and reduces the risk of a cardiovascular (CV) event (CVE) by up to 35%. However, adherence to statin therapy is poor. One reason patients discontinue statin therapy is musculoskeletal pain and the associated risk of rhabdomyolysis. Research is ongoing to develop a pharmacogenomics (PGx) test for statin-induced myopathy as an alternative to the current diagnosis method, which relies on creatine kinase levels. The potential economic value of a PGx test for statin-induced myopathy is unknown. We developed a lifetime discrete event simulation (DES) model for patients 65 years of age initiating a statin after a first CVE consisting of either an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or a stroke. The model evaluates the potential economic value of a hypothetical PGx test for diagnosing statin-induced myopathy. We have assessed the model over the spectrum of test sensitivity and specificity parameters. Our model showed that a strategy with a perfect PGx test had an incremental cost-utility ratio of 4273 Canadian dollars ($Can) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that when the payer willingness-to-pay per QALY reaches $Can12,000, the PGx strategy is favored in 90% of the model simulations. We found that a strategy favoring patients staying on statin therapy is cost effective even if patients maintained on statin are at risk of rhabdomyolysis. Our results are explained by the fact that statins are highly effective in reducing the CV risk in patients at high CV risk, and this benefit largely outweighs the risk of rhabdomyolysis.

Utility of antenatal clinical factors for prediction of postpartum outcomes in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

PubMed

Ingram, Emily R; Robertson, Iain K; Ogden, Kathryn J; Dennis, Amanda E; Campbell, Joanne E; Corbould, Anne M

2017-06-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with life-long increased risk of type 2 diabetes: affected women are advised to undergo oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) at 6-12 weeks postpartum, then glucose screening every 1-3 years. We investigated whether in women with GDM, antenatal clinical factors predicted postpartum abnormal glucose tolerance and compliance with screening. In women with GDM delivering 2007 to mid-2009 in a single hospital, antenatal/obstetric data and glucose tests at 6-12 weeks postpartum and during 5.5 years post-pregnancy were retrospectively collected. Predictors of return for testing and abnormal glucose tolerance were identified using multivariate analysis. Of 165 women, 117 (70.9%) returned for 6-12 week postpartum OGTT: 23 (19.6%) were abnormal. Smoking and parity, independent of socioeconomic status, were associated with non-return for testing. Fasting glucose ≥5.4 mmol/L on pregnancy OGTT predicted both non-return for testing and abnormal OGTT. During 5.5 years post-pregnancy, 148 (89.7%) women accessed glucose screening: nine (6.1%) developed diabetes, 33 (22.3%) had impaired fasting glucose / impaired glucose tolerance. Predictors of abnormal glucose tolerance were fasting glucose ≥5.4 mmol/L and 2-h glucose ≥9.3 mmol/L on pregnancy OGTT (~2.5-fold increased risk), and polycystic ovary syndrome (~3.4 fold increased risk). Risk score calculation, based on combined antenatal factors, did not improve predictions. Antenatal clinical factors were modestly predictive of return for testing and abnormal glucose tolerance post-pregnancy in women with GDM. Risk score calculations were ineffective in predicting outcomes: risk scores developed in other populations require validation. Ongoing glucose screening is indicated for all women with GDM. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in women of different ethnicities undergoing testing for hereditary breast-ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Hall, Michael J; Reid, Julia E; Burbidge, Lynn A; Pruss, Dmitry; Deffenbaugh, Amie M; Frye, Cynthia; Wenstrup, Richard J; Ward, Brian E; Scholl, Thomas A; Noll, Walter W

2009-05-15

In women at increased risk for breast and ovarian cancer, the identification of a mutation in breast cancer gene 1 (BRCA1) and BRCA2 has important implications for screening and prevention counseling. Uncertainty regarding the role of BRCA1 and BRCA2 testing in high-risk women from diverse ancestral backgrounds exists because of variability in prevalence estimates of deleterious (disease-associated) mutations in non-white populations. In this study, the authors examined the prevalence of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in an ethnically diverse group of women who were referred for genetic testing. In this cross-sectional analysis, the prevalence of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations was assessed in a group of non-Ashkenazi Jewish women who underwent genetic testing. From 1996 to 2006, 46,276 women who met study criteria underwent DNA full-sequence analysis of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Deleterious mutations were identified in 12.5% of women, and recurrent deleterious mutations (prevalence >2%) were identified in all ancestral groups. Women of non-European descent were younger (mean age, 45.9 years; standard deviation [SD], 11.6 years) than European women (mean age, 50 years; SD, 11.9 years; P < .001). Women of African (15.6%; odds ratio [OR], 1.3 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.1-1.5]) and Latin American (14.8%; OR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.4]) ancestries had a significantly higher prevalence of deleterious BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations compared with women of Western European ancestry (12.1%), primarily because of an increased prevalence of BRCA1 mutations in those 2 groups. Non-European ethnicity was associated strongly with having a variant of uncertain significance; however, reclassification decreased variant reporting (from 12.8%-->5.9%), and women of African ancestry experienced the largest decline (58%). Mutation prevalence was found to be high among women who were referred for clinical BRCA1 and BRCA2 testing, and the risk was similar across diverse ethnicities. BRCA1 and BRCA2 testing is integral to cancer risk assessment in all high-risk women.

Implementing an Internet-Delivered Skin Cancer Genetic Testing Intervention to Improve Sun Protection Behavior in a Diverse Population: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Hay, Jennifer L; Berwick, Marianne; Zielaskowski, Kate; White, Kirsten Am; Rodríguez, Vivian M; Robers, Erika; Guest, Dolores D; Sussman, Andrew; Talamantes, Yvonne; Schwartz, Matthew R; Greb, Jennie; Bigney, Jessica; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Hunley, Keith; Buller, David B

2017-04-25

Limited translational genomic research currently exists to guide the availability, comprehension, and appropriate use of personalized genomics in diverse general population subgroups. Melanoma skin cancers are preventable, curable, common in the general population, and disproportionately increasing in Hispanics. Variants in the melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) gene are present in approximately 50% of the population, are major factors in determining sun sensitivity, and confer a 2-to-3-fold increase in melanoma risk in the general population, even in populations with darker skin. Therefore, feedback regarding MC1R risk status may raise risk awareness and protective behavior in the general population. We are conducting a randomized controlled trial examining Internet presentation of the risks and benefits of personalized genomic testing for MC1R gene variants that are associated with increased melanoma risk. We will enroll a total of 885 participants (462 participants are currently enrolled), who will be randomized 6:1 to personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk versus waiting list control. Control participants will be offered testing after outcome assessments. Participants will be balanced across self-reported Hispanic versus non-Hispanic ethnicity (n=750 in personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk arm; n=135 in control arm), and will be recruited from a general population cohort in Albuquerque, New Mexico, which is subject to year-round sun exposure. Baseline surveys will be completed in-person with study staff and follow-up measures will be completed via telephone. Aim 1 of the trial will examine the personal utility of personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk in terms of short-term (3-month) sun protection and skin screening behaviors, family and physician communication, and melanoma threat and control beliefs (ie, putative mediators of behavior change). We will also examine potential unintended consequences of testing among those who receive average-risk personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk findings, and examine predictors of sun protection at 3 months as the outcome. These findings will be used to develop messages for groups that receive average-risk feedback. Aim 2 will compare rates of test consideration in Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, including consideration of testing pros and cons and registration of a decision to either accept or decline testing. Aim 3 will examine personalized genomic testing for melanoma risk feedback comprehension, recall, satisfaction, and cancer-related distress in those who undergo testing, and whether these outcomes differ by ethnicity (Hispanic vs non-Hispanic), or sociocultural or demographic factors. Final outcome data collection is anticipated to be complete by October 2017, at which point data analysis will commence. This study has important implications for personalized genomics in the context of melanoma risk, and may be broadly applicable as a model for delivery of personalized genomic feedback for other health conditions. ©Jennifer L Hay, Marianne Berwick, Kate Zielaskowski, Kirsten AM White, Vivian M Rodríguez, Erika Robers, Dolores D Guest, Andrew Sussman, Yvonne Talamantes, Matthew R Schwartz, Jennie Greb, Jessica Bigney, Kimberly A Kaphingst, Keith Hunley, David B Buller. Originally published in JMIR Research Protocols (http://www.researchprotocols.org), 25.04.2017.

LOX, GOX and Pressure Relief

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McLeod, Ken; Stoltzfus, Joel

2006-01-01

Oxygen relief systems present a serious fire hazard risk with often severe consequences. This presentation offers a risk management solution strategy which encourages minimizing ignition hazards, maximizing best materials, and utilizing good practices. Additionally, the relief system should be designed for cleanability and ballistic flow. The use of the right metals, softgoods, and lubricants, along with the best assembly techniques, is stressed. Materials should also be tested if data is not available and a full hazard analysis should be conducted in an effort to minimize risk and harm.

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of TST Conversion Risk in Deployed Military and Long-Term Civilian Travelers

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Intern .Med 2003; 163:1009-1021. 3. Cobclens FG, van Deutekom H, Draayer-Jansen IW, et al. Risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in...Smith A, Foo W, Earnest A, Paton N. High risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection during the Hajj pilgrimage. Trop Med Int Health 2005; 10: 336...205-212. 43. Mazurek GH, JerebJ, Lobue P, et al. Guidelines for using the Quantiferon-TB Gold test for detecting Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

A health risk benchmark for the neurologic effects of styrene: comparison with NOAEL/LOAEL approach.

PubMed

Rabovsky, J; Fowles, J; Hill, M D; Lewis, D C

2001-02-01

Benchmark dose (BMD) analysis was used to estimate an inhalation benchmark concentration for styrene neurotoxicity. Quantal data on neuropsychologic test results from styrene-exposed workers [Mutti et al. (1984). American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 5, 275-286] were used to quantify neurotoxicity, defined as the percent of tested workers who responded abnormally to > or = 1, > or = 2, or > or = 3 out of a battery of eight tests. Exposure was based on previously published results on mean urinary mandelic- and phenylglyoxylic acid levels in the workers, converted to air styrene levels (15, 44, 74, or 115 ppm). Nonstyrene-exposed workers from the same region served as a control group. Maximum-likelihood estimates (MLEs) and BMDs at 5 and 10% response levels of the exposed population were obtained from log-normal analysis of the quantal data. The highest MLE was 9 ppm (BMD = 4 ppm) styrene and represents abnormal responses to > or = 3 tests by 10% of the exposed population. The most health-protective MLE was 2 ppm styrene (BMD = 0.3 ppm) and represents abnormal responses to > or = 1 test by 5% of the exposed population. A no observed adverse effect level/lowest observed adverse effect level (NOAEL/LOAEL) analysis of the same quantal data showed workers in all styrene exposure groups responded abnormally to > or = 1, > or = 2, or > or = 3 tests, compared to controls, and the LOAEL was 15 ppm. A comparison of the BMD and NOAEL/LOAEL analyses suggests that at air styrene levels below the LOAEL, a segment of the worker population may be adversely affected. The benchmark approach will be useful for styrene noncancer risk assessment purposes by providing a more accurate estimate of potential risk that should, in turn, help to reduce the uncertainty that is a common problem in setting exposure levels.

Screening large-scale association study data: exploiting interactions using random forests.

PubMed

Lunetta, Kathryn L; Hayward, L Brooke; Segal, Jonathan; Van Eerdewegh, Paul

2004-12-10

Genome-wide association studies for complex diseases will produce genotypes on hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A logical first approach to dealing with massive numbers of SNPs is to use some test to screen the SNPs, retaining only those that meet some criterion for further study. For example, SNPs can be ranked by p-value, and those with the lowest p-values retained. When SNPs have large interaction effects but small marginal effects in a population, they are unlikely to be retained when univariate tests are used for screening. However, model-based screens that pre-specify interactions are impractical for data sets with thousands of SNPs. Random forest analysis is an alternative method that produces a single measure of importance for each predictor variable that takes into account interactions among variables without requiring model specification. Interactions increase the importance for the individual interacting variables, making them more likely to be given high importance relative to other variables. We test the performance of random forests as a screening procedure to identify small numbers of risk-associated SNPs from among large numbers of unassociated SNPs using complex disease models with up to 32 loci, incorporating both genetic heterogeneity and multi-locus interaction. Keeping other factors constant, if risk SNPs interact, the random forest importance measure significantly outperforms the Fisher Exact test as a screening tool. As the number of interacting SNPs increases, the improvement in performance of random forest analysis relative to Fisher Exact test for screening also increases. Random forests perform similarly to the univariate Fisher Exact test as a screening tool when SNPs in the analysis do not interact. In the context of large-scale genetic association studies where unknown interactions exist among true risk-associated SNPs or SNPs and environmental covariates, screening SNPs using random forest analyses can significantly reduce the number of SNPs that need to be retained for further study compared to standard univariate screening methods.

[The clinical economic analysis of the methods of ischemic heart disease diagnostics].

PubMed

Kalashnikov, V Iu; Mitriagina, S N; Syrkin, A L; Poltavskaia, M G; Sorokina, E G

2007-01-01

The clinical economical analysis was applied to assess the application of different techniques of ischemic heart disease diagnostics - the electro-cardiographic monitoring, the treadmill-testing, the stress-echo cardiographic with dobutamine, the single-photon computerized axial tomography with load, the multi-spiral computerized axial tomography with coronary arteries staining in patients with different initial probability of disease occurrence. In all groups, the best value of "cost-effectiveness" had the treadmill-test. The patients with low risk needed 17.4 rubles to precise the probability of ischemic heart disease occurrence at 1%. In the group with medium and high risk this indicator was 9.4 and 24.7 rubles correspondingly. It is concluded that to precise the probability of ischemic heart disease occurrence after tredmil-test in the patients with high probability it is appropriate to use the single-photon computerized axial tomography with load and in the case of patients with low probability the multi-spiral computerized axial tomography with coronary arteries staining.

Analysis of polymorphisms in the circadian-related genes and breast cancer risk in Norwegian nurses working night shifts

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Some studies have suggested that night work may be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in nurses. We aimed to explore the role of circadian gene polymorphisms in the susceptibility to night work-related breast cancer risk. Methods We conducted a nested case-control study of Norwegian nurses comprising 563 breast cancer cases and 619 controls within a cohort of 49,402 Norwegian nurses ages 35 to 74 years. We studied 60 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 17 genes involved in the regulation of the circadian rhythm in cases and controls. The data were analyzed in relation to the two exposure variables "maximum number of consecutive night shifts ever worked" and "maximum number of consecutive night shifts worked for at least 5 years." The odds of breast cancer associated with each SNP was calculated in the main effects analysis and in relation to night shift work. The statistically significant odds ratios were tested for noteworthiness using two Bayesian tests: false positive report probability (FPRP) and Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP). Results In the main effects analysis, CC carriers of rs4238989 and GG carriers of rs3760138 in the AANAT gene had increased risk of breast cancer, whereas TT carriers of BMAL1 rs2278749 and TT carriers of CLOCK rs3749474 had reduced risk. The associations were found to be noteworthy using both the FPRP and BFDP tests. With regard to the effect of polymorphisms and night work, several significant associations were observed. After applying FPRP and BFDP in women with at least four night shifts, an increased risk of breast cancer was associated with variant alleles of SNPs in the genes AANAT (rs3760138, rs4238989), BMAL1 (rs2290035, rs2278749, rs969485) and ROR-b (rs3750420). In women with three consecutive night shifts, a reduced risk of breast cancer was associated with carriage of variant alleles of SNPs in CLOCK (rs3749474), BMAL1 (rs2278749), BMAL2 (rs2306074), CSNK1E (rs5757037), NPAS2 (rs17024926), ROR-b (rs3903529, rs3750420), MTNR1A (rs131113549) and PER3 (rs1012477). Conclusions Significant and noteworthy associations between several polymorphisms in circadian genes, night work and breast cancer risk were found among nurses who had worked at least three consecutive night shifts. PMID:23822714

Infection, Alveolar Osteitis, and Adverse Effects Using Metronidazole in Healthy Patients Undergoing Third Molar Surgery: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Isiordia-Espinoza, Mario Alberto; Aragon-Martinez, Othoniel H; Bollogna-Molina, Ronell E; Alonso-Castro, Ángel J

2018-06-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the risk of surgical infection, alveolar osteitis, and adverse effects using systemic metronidazole in comparison with placebo in healthy patients undergoing third molar surgery. The eligible reports were identified from diverse science sources. Clinical trials meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria and an acceptable Oxford Quality Score were included in this study. The evaluation of risk was done using the Risk Reduction Calculator and Review Manager 5.3., from the Cochrane Library. A significant risk reduction was assumed when the upper limit of the 95% confidence intervals was <1 and the lower limit did not cross zero (negative number) alongside a p value of <0.05 for the overall test. Data of 667 patients from five clinical trials were used for the assessment of risk. Our analysis showed no reduction of the risk of infection or dry socket in patients receiving metronidazole compared to whom took placebo. Meanwhile, the adverse effects did not exhibit a difference between the studied groups. The routine use of systemic metronidazole to prevent surgical site infection and/or dry socket in healthy patients undergoing third molar surgery is not recommended.

A meta-analysis of interleukin-10-1082 promoter genetic polymorphism associated with atherosclerotic risk.

PubMed

Chao, Li; Lei, Huang; Fei, Jin

2014-01-01

This meta-analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between interleukin-10-1082 G/A single nucleotide polymorphism with atherosclerosis (AS) risk. The databases of PubMed, EMBASE, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wan-Fang were searched from January 2000 to January 2014. 16 studies (involving 7779 cases and 7271 controls) were finally included. Each eligible study was scored for quality assessment. We adopted the most probably appropriate genetic model (recessive model) after carefully calculation. Between study heterogeneity was explored by subgroup analysis and publication bias was estimated by Begg's funnel plot and Egger's regression test. Statistically significant association was observed between AA genotype with overall AS risk, being mainly in coronary heart disease and stroke subgroups among Asian population, and peripheral artery disease (PAD) subgroup among Caucasians. Interleukin-10-1082 AA genotype is associated with increased overall AS risk. AA carriers of Asians seem to be more susceptible to coronary artery disease and stroke, and Caucasians are more susceptible to PAD.

Predicting MCI outcome with clinically available MRI and CSF biomarkers

PubMed Central

Heister, D.; Brewer, J.B.; Magda, S.; Blennow, K.

2011-01-01

Objective: To determine the ability of clinically available volumetric MRI (vMRI) and CSF biomarkers, alone or in combination with a quantitative learning measure, to predict conversion to Alzheimer disease (AD) in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: We stratified 192 MCI participants into positive and negative risk groups on the basis of 1) degree of learning impairment on the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test; 2) medial temporal atrophy, quantified from Food and Drug Administration–approved software for automated vMRI analysis; and 3) CSF biomarker levels. We also stratified participants based on combinations of risk factors. We computed Cox proportional hazards models, controlling for age, to assess 3-year risk of converting to AD as a function of risk group and used Kaplan-Meier analyses to determine median survival times. Results: When risk factors were examined separately, individuals testing positive showed significantly higher risk of converting to AD than individuals testing negative (hazard ratios [HR] 1.8–4.1). The joint presence of any 2 risk factors substantially increased risk, with the combination of greater learning impairment and increased atrophy associated with highest risk (HR 29.0): 85% of patients with both risk factors converted to AD within 3 years, vs 5% of those with neither. The presence of medial temporal atrophy was associated with shortest median dementia-free survival (15 months). Conclusions: Incorporating quantitative assessment of learning ability along with vMRI or CSF biomarkers in the clinical workup of MCI can provide critical information on risk of imminent conversion to AD. PMID:21998317

Strategies to Identify the Lynch Syndrome Among Patients With Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Ladabaum, Uri; Wang, Grace; Terdiman, Jonathan; Blanco, Amie; Kuppermann, Miriam; Boland, C. Richard; Ford, James; Elkin, Elena; Phillips, Kathryn A.

2013-01-01

Background Testing has been advocated for all persons with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer to identify families with the Lynch syndrome, an autosomal dominant cancer-predisposition syndrome that is a paradigm for personalized medicine. Objective To estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies to identify the Lynch syndrome, with attention to sex, age at screening, and differential effects for probands and relatives. Design Markov model that incorporated risk for colorectal, endometrial, and ovarian cancers. Data Sources Published literature. Target Population All persons with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer and their relatives. Time Horizon Lifetime. Perspective Third-party payer. Intervention Strategies based on clinical criteria, prediction algorithms, tumor testing, or up-front germline mutation testing, followed by tailored screening and risk-reducing surgery. Outcome Measures Life-years, cancer cases and deaths, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results of Base-Case Analysis The benefit of all strategies accrued primarily to relatives with a mutation associated with the Lynch syndrome, particularly women, whose life expectancy could increase by approximately 4 years with hysterectomy and salpingo-oophorectomy and adherence to colorectal cancer screening recommendations. At current rates of germline testing, screening, and prophylactic surgery, the strategies reduced deaths from colorectal cancer by 7% to 42% and deaths from endometrial and ovarian cancer by 1% to 6%. Among tumor-testing strategies, immunohistochemistry followed by BRAF mutation testing was preferred, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $36 200 per life-year gained. Results of Sensitivity Analysis The number of relatives tested per proband was a critical determinant of both effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, with testing of 3 to 4 relatives required for most strategies to meet a threshold of $50 000 per life-year gained. Immunohistochemistry followed by BRAF mutation testing was preferred in 59% of iterations in probabilistic sensitivity analysis at a threshold of $100 000 per life-year gained. Screening for the Lynch syndrome with immunohistochemistry followed by BRAF mutation testing only up to age 70 years cost $44 000 per incremental life-year gained compared with screening only up to age 60 years, and screening without an upper age limit cost $88 700 per incremental life-year gained compared with screening only up to age 70 years. Limitation Other types of cancer, uncertain family pedigrees, and genetic variants of unknown significance were not considered. Conclusion Widespread colorectal tumor testing to identify families with the Lynch syndrome could yield substantial benefits at acceptable costs, particularly for women with a mutation associated with the Lynch syndrome who begin regular screening and have risk-reducing surgery. The cost-effectiveness of such testing depends on the participation rate among relatives at risk for the Lynch syndrome. Primary Funding Source National Institutes of Health. PMID:21768580

The ACTA PORT-score for predicting perioperative risk of blood transfusion for adult cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T

2017-09-01

A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Science/Society Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, John W., Ed.; Moore, Elizabeth A., Ed.

1977-01-01

Discusses the role of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in protecting the American public from carcinogens. Describes scientific testing methodology, risk-benefit analysis and the Delaney clause with its application to saccharin. (CP)

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Safety and efficacy of rivaroxaban compared with warfarin in patients undergoing peripheral arterial procedures.

PubMed

Talukdar, Anjan; Wang, S Keisin; Czosnowski, Lauren; Mokraoui, Nassim; Gupta, Alok; Fajardo, Andres; Dalsing, Michael; Motaganahalli, Raghu

2017-10-01

Rivaroxaban is a United States Food and Drug Administration-approved oral anticoagulant for venous thromboembolic disease; however, there is no information regarding the safety and its efficacy to support its use in patients after open or endovascular arterial interventions. We report the safety and efficacy of rivaroxaban vs warfarin in patients undergoing peripheral arterial interventions. This single-institution retrospective study analyzed all sequential patients from December 2012 to August 2014 (21 months) who were prescribed rivaroxaban or warfarin after a peripheral arterial procedure. Our study population was then compared using American College of Chest Physicians guidelines with patients then stratified as low, medium, or high risk for bleeding complications. Statistical analyses were performed using the Student t-test and χ 2 test to compare demographics, readmissions because of bleeding, and the need for secondary interventions. Logistic regression models were used for analysis of variables associated with bleeding complications and secondary interventions. The Fisher exact test was used for power analysis. There were 44 patients in the rivaroxaban group and 50 patients in the warfarin group. Differences between demographics and risk factors for bleeding between groups or reintervention rate were not statistically significant (P = .297). However, subgroup evaluation of the safety profile suggests that patients who were aged ≤65 years and on warfarin had an overall higher incidence of major bleeding (P = .020). Patients who were aged >65 years, undergoing open operation, had a significant risk for reintervention (P = .047) when they received rivaroxaban. Real-world experience using rivaroxaban and warfarin in patients after peripheral arterial procedures suggests a comparable safety and efficacy profile. Subgroup analysis of those requiring an open operation demonstrated a decreased bleeding risk when rivaroxaban was used (in those aged <65 years) but an increased risk for secondary interventions. Further studies with a larger cohort are required to validate our results. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

In vitro assessment of equivalence of occupational health risk: welders.

PubMed Central

Stern, R M

1983-01-01

The possibility of using in vitro testing to determine the equivalence of risk for various occupational groups is discussed. In the absence of epidemiological evidence or relevant animal in vivo bioassays on which to determine the health effects of specific occupational exposures, it is proposed to use similarities in the in vitro response to substances with known (or strongly suspected) and unknown risk to demonstrate their risk equivalence. Identification and evaluation of a high risk "hot spot" due to exposure to Cr(VI) for stainless steel welders is discussed in terms of recent developments in collection, analysis and bioassay of welding fumes. PMID:6641655

Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

PubMed

Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

2012-12-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of bias and methodological issues in randomised controlled trials of acupuncture for knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Lee, Andy H; Zhou, Xu; Kang, Deying; Luo, Yanan; Liu, Jiali; Sun, Xin

2018-01-01

Objective To assess risk of bias and to investigate methodological issues concerning the design, conduct and analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) testing acupuncture for knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Methods PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and four major Chinese databases were searched for RCTs that investigated the effect of acupuncture for KOA. The Cochrane tool was used to examine the risk of bias of eligible RCTs. Their methodological details were examined using a standardised and pilot-tested questionnaire of 48 items, together with the association between four predefined factors and important methodological quality indicators. Results A total of 248 RCTs were eligible, of which 39 (15.7%) used computer-generated randomisation sequence. Of the 31 (12.5%) trials that stated the allocation concealment, only one used central randomisation. Twenty-five (10.1%) trials mentioned that their acupuncture procedures were standardised, but only 18 (7.3%) specified how the standardisation was achieved. The great majority of trials (n=233, 94%) stated that blinding was in place, but 204 (87.6%) did not clarify who was blinded. Only 27 (10.9%) trials specified the primary outcome, for which 7 used intention-to-treat analysis. Only 17 (6.9%) trials included details on sample size calculation; none preplanned an interim analysis and associated stopping rule. In total, 46 (18.5%) trials explicitly stated that loss to follow-up occurred, but only 6 (2.4%) provided some information to deal with the issue. No trials prespecified, conducted or reported any subgroup or adjusted analysis for the primary outcome. Conclusion The overall risk of bias was high among published RCTs testing acupuncture for KOA. Methodological limitations were present in many important aspects of design, conduct and analyses. These findings inform the development of evidence-based methodological guidance for future trials assessing the effect of acupuncture for KOA. PMID:29511016

Molecular-Directed Treatment of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: Advances in Diagnosis and Treatment.

PubMed

Yip, Linwah; Sosa, Julie Ann

2016-07-01

Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing, and when fine-needle aspiration biopsy results are cytologically indeterminate, the diagnosis is often still established only after thyroidectomy. Molecular marker testing may be helpful in guiding patient-oriented and tailored management of thyroid nodules and thyroid cancer. To summarize available data on the use of molecular testing to improve the diagnosis and prognostication of thyroid cancer. A MEDLINE review was conducted using the primary search terms molecular, thyroid cancer, thyroid nodule, and gene expression classifier in search strings. Articles were restricted to those published between January 1, 2010, and June 1, 2015, inclusive of adult humans, and reported in the English language only. Of 867 titles screened, 67 articles were further identified for review of the full text. The 2 most studied molecular marker testing techniques for indeterminate thyroid nodules include gene expression classifier analysis and evaluation for somatic mutations or rearrangements that are commonly found in thyroid cancer (7-gene panel). Nodules with benign results on gene expression classifier analysis can be associated with less than a 5% risk of cancer and may be observed, while nodules with positive results on the 7-gene panel may have a higher risk of cancer (80%-100%) and definitive surgery can be recommended. However, cancer prevalence and geographic variations in histologic subtypes may affect accuracy and clinical applicability of both tests. Molecular marker tests such as ThyroSeq version 2.1 are more comprehensive, but they need further validation. Preoperative risk stratification using molecular markers also may be used to better define the optimal extent of thyroidectomy for patients with thyroid cancer. Molecular markers potentially can augment the diagnostic specificity of fine-needle aspiration biopsy to better differentiate cytologically indeterminate nodules that can be safely observed from cytologically indeterminate nodules that may be associated with differentiated thyroid cancer. Long-term follow-up data are still needed; in the end, patient preference regarding the relative risks and benefits of molecular testing is at the crux of decision making.

Outcomes of non-invasive diagnostic modalities for the detection of coronary artery disease: network meta-analysis of diagnostic randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Siontis, George CM; Mavridis, Dimitris; Greenwood, John P; Coles, Bernadette; Nikolakopoulou, Adriani; Jüni, Peter; Salanti, Georgia

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To evaluate differences in downstream testing, coronary revascularisation, and clinical outcomes following non-invasive diagnostic modalities used to detect coronary artery disease. Design Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Medline in process, Embase, Cochrane Library for clinical trials, PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and Clinicaltrials.gov. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Diagnostic randomised controlled trials comparing non-invasive diagnostic modalities in patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of low risk acute coronary syndrome or stable coronary artery disease. Data synthesis A random effects network meta-analysis synthesised available evidence from trials evaluating the effect of non-invasive diagnostic modalities on downstream testing and patient oriented outcomes in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Modalities included exercise electrocardiograms, stress echocardiography, single photon emission computed tomography-myocardial perfusion imaging, real time myocardial contrast echocardiography, coronary computed tomographic angiography, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance. Unpublished outcome data were obtained from 11 trials. Results 18 trials of patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome (n=11 329) and 12 trials of those with suspected stable coronary artery disease (n=22 062) were included. Among patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome, stress echocardiography, cardiovascular magnetic resonance, and exercise electrocardiograms resulted in fewer invasive referrals for coronary angiography than coronary computed tomographic angiography (odds ratio 0.28 (95% confidence interval 0.14 to 0.57), 0.32 (0.15 to 0.71), and 0.53 (0.28 to 1.00), respectively). There was no effect on the subsequent risk of myocardial infarction, but estimates were imprecise. Heterogeneity and inconsistency were low. In patients with suspected stable coronary artery disease, an initial diagnostic strategy of stress echocardiography or single photon emission computed tomography-myocardial perfusion imaging resulted in fewer downstream tests than coronary computed tomographic angiography (0.24 (0.08 to 0.74) and 0.57 (0.37 to 0.87), respectively). However, exercise electrocardiograms yielded the highest downstream testing rate. Estimates for death and myocardial infarction were imprecise without clear discrimination between strategies. Conclusions For patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome, an initial diagnostic strategy of stress echocardiography or cardiovascular magnetic resonance is associated with fewer referrals for invasive coronary angiography and revascularisation procedures than non-invasive anatomical testing, without apparent impact on the future risk of myocardial infarction. For suspected stable coronary artery disease, there was no clear discrimination between diagnostic strategies regarding the subsequent need for invasive coronary angiography, and differences in the risk of myocardial infarction cannot be ruled out. Systematic review registration PROSPERO registry no CRD42016049442. PMID:29467161

Path analysis of risk factors leading to premature birth.

PubMed

Fields, S J; Livshits, G; Sirotta, L; Merlob, P

1996-01-01

The present study tested whether various sociodemographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and medical/physiological factors act in a direct or indirect manner on the risk of prematurity using path analysis on a sample of Israeli births. The path model shows that medical complications, primarily toxemia, chorioammionitis, and a previous low birth weight delivery directly and significantly act on the risk of prematurity as do low maternal pregnancy weight gain and ethnicity. Other medical complications, including chronic hypertension, preclampsia, and placental abruption, although significantly correlated with prematurity, act indirectly on prematurity through toxemia. The model further shows that the commonly accepted sociodemographic, anthropometric, and behavioral risk factors act by modifying the development of medical complications that lead to prematurity as opposed to having a direct effect on premature delivery. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Copyright © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Systems engineering approach to environmental risk management: A case study of depleted uranium at test area C-64, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. Master`s thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carter, C.M.; Fortmann, K.M.; Hill, S.W.

1994-12-01

Environmental restoration is an area of concern in an environmentally conscious world. Much effort is required to clean up the environment and promote environmentally sound methods for managing current land use. In light of the public consciousness with the latter topic, the United States Air Force must also take an active role in addressing these environmental issues with respect to current and future USAF base land use. This thesis uses the systems engineering technique to assess human health risks and to evaluate risk management options with respect to depleted uranium contamination in the sampled region of Test Area (TA) C-64more » at Eglin Air Force Base (AFB). The research combines the disciplines of environmental data collection, DU soil concentration distribution modeling, ground water modeling, particle resuspension modeling, exposure assessment, health hazard assessment, and uncertainty analysis to characterize the test area. These disciplines are required to quantify current and future health risks, as well as to recommend cost effective ways to increase confidence in health risk assessment and remediation options.« less

An investigation of the practice of unsafe sex yet repeated HIV testing.

PubMed

Patinkin, Naama; Werner, Ben; Yust, Israel; Yagil, Yaron; Drory, Margalit; Burke, Michael

2007-01-01

A purportedly heterogeneous group of people, who come to take tests at the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Test-ing Clinic, includes young males and females who lead a normative lifestyle with no unique characteristics. Within this population, we have observed one distinct subgroup of predominantly male individuals, who return from time to time to take the HIV tests. They tend to partake in many occasional sexual encounters with numerous partners, and despite their obvious knowledge of the risks involved, they attest to not using condoms during sexual intercourse. The aim of this preliminary study was to investigate the patterns of their risky behavior in conjunction with their test taking conduct. Ten self-referred volunteering subjects were recruited. HIV-positive, drug and/or alcohol abusers, mentally ill, men who have sex with men (MSM) and minors. The study was carried-out using semi-structured interviews (40-90 min each). The interviews were recorded, transcribed and content analyzed. Data analysis showed several possible explanations for risky sexual behavior, such as applying of a variety of risk management mechanisms, refraining from impulse control behaviors, and self-destruction motives. The reasons for undergoing HIV testing were most frequently related to specific events, high-risk in nature, and not part of a routine behavioral practice. Our findings might suggest that within this population group, the prevailing primary preventive interventions would not satisfy the purpose of decreasing levels and frequency of risk-taking behaviors. In the opinion of the authors, there are two strategies that could be employed, simultaneously or separately. An indirect approach entails the increase and enhancement in utilizing widely spread media, e.g., feature films and television programs, to convey issues related to curbing risk-behavior. Direct emphasis should be put on secondary preventive measures, by encouraging frequent test-taking conduct, preferably accompanied by counseling, in order to decrease the risk of further transmitting the virus.

The Effect of Vitamin A on Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xinge; Zhang, Rui; Wang, Yueqiao; Yan, Hanyi; Wu, Yingru; Tan, Anran; Fu, Jialin; Shen, Ziqiong; Qin, Guiyu; Li, Rui; Chen, Guoxun

2017-01-01

This meta-analysis evaluated the influence of dietary intake and blood level of vitamin A (total vitamin A, retinol or β-carotene) on total and hip fracture risk. Cohort studies published before July 2017 were selected through English-language literature searches in several databases. Relative risk (RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to evaluate the risk. Heterogeneity was checked by Chi-square and I2 test. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were also performed. For the association between retinol intake and total fracture risk, we performed subgroup analysis by sex, region, case ascertainment, education level, age at menopause and vitamin D intake. R software was used to complete all statistical analyses. A total of 319,077 participants over the age of 20 years were included. Higher dietary intake of retinol and total vitamin A may slightly decrease total fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 0.95 (0.91, 1.00) and 0.94 (0.88, 0.99), respectively), and increase hip fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.40 (1.02, 1.91) and 1.29 (1.06, 1.57), respectively). Lower blood level of retinol may slightly increase total fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.11 (0.94, 1.30)) and hip fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.27 (1.05, 1.53)). In addition, higher β-carotene intake was weakly associated with the increased risk of total fracture (RR with 95% CI: 1.07 (0.97, 1.17)). Our data suggest that vitamin A intake and level may differentially influence the risks of total and hip fractures. Clinical trials are warranted to confirm these results and assess the clinical applicability. PMID:28891953

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

PubMed

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

PubMed

Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

2015-09-15

In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monitoring anonymous HIV testing in Estonia from 2005 to 2015.

PubMed

Rüütel, K; Kallavus, K; Tomera, I

2018-02-01

In Estonia, a network of anonymous and free of charge HIV testing sites has been operating since 1988. Services are provided by health care organizations and financed by the National Institute for Health Development from the state budget. The objective of this analysis was to assess anonymous HIV testing in Estonia from 2005 to 2015. We used data collected from the National Institute for Health Development's annual reports, Health Board and Estonian Health Insurance Fund. In Estonia, more than 200 000 HIV-tests are performed annually, and of these approximately 5-6% are within anonymous HIV testing sites. The percentage tested with rapid tests in anonymous testing sites has increased from 15% in 2010 to 53% in 2015. Furthermore, up to 65% of all newly diagnosed HIV-cases have been detected in these sites. The proportion of HIV-positive tests has decreased from 3.8% to 0.5% in anonymous testing sites and from 0.3% to 0.1% in general health care. Simultaneously, the cost of detecting one new HIV case has increased almost six times. This analysis reveals that anonymous HIV testing services are well accepted by the general population as well as vulnerable populations. The positivity rate among those tested in anonymous testing sites remains higher than among all people tested, showing that the sites reach more of those who are at higher risk of HIV. In the light of decreasing positivity rate, more attention should be paid to people with higher HIV risk and increasing access to testing in community based settings. © 2018 British HIV Association.

Genetic Association and Risk Scores in a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Meta-analysis of 16,707 Subjects.

PubMed

Busch, Robert; Hobbs, Brian D; Zhou, Jin; Castaldi, Peter J; McGeachie, Michael J; Hardin, Megan E; Hawrylkiewicz, Iwona; Sliwinski, Pawel; Yim, Jae-Joon; Kim, Woo Jin; Kim, Deog K; Agusti, Alvar; Make, Barry J; Crapo, James D; Calverley, Peter M; Donner, Claudio F; Lomas, David A; Wouters, Emiel F; Vestbo, Jørgen; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Bakke, Per; Gulsvik, Amund; Litonjua, Augusto A; Sparrow, David; Paré, Peter D; Levy, Robert D; Rennard, Stephen I; Beaty, Terri H; Hokanson, John; Silverman, Edwin K; Cho, Michael H

2017-07-01

The heritability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be fully explained by recognized genetic risk factors identified as achieving genome-wide significance. In addition, the combined contribution of genetic variation to COPD risk has not been fully explored. We sought to determine: (1) whether studies of variants from previous studies of COPD or lung function in a larger sample could identify additional associated variants, particularly for severe COPD; and (2) the impact of genetic risk scores on COPD. We genotyped 3,346 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,588 cases (1,803 severe COPD) and 1,782 control subjects from four cohorts, and performed association testing with COPD, combining these results with existing genotyping data from 6,633 cases (3,497 severe COPD) and 5,704 control subjects. In addition, we developed genetic risk scores from SNPs associated with lung function and COPD and tested their discriminatory power for COPD-related measures. We identified significant associations between SNPs near PPIC (P = 1.28 × 10 -8 ) and PPP4R4/SERPINA1 (P = 1.01 × 10 -8 ) and severe COPD; the latter association may be driven by recognized variants in SERPINA1. Genetic risk scores based on SNPs previously associated with COPD and lung function had a modest ability to discriminate COPD (area under the curve, ∼0.6), and accounted for a mean 0.9-1.9% lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted for each additional risk allele. In a large genetic association analysis, we identified associations with severe COPD near PPIC and SERPINA1. A risk score based on combining genetic variants had modest, but significant, effects on risk of COPD and lung function.

Breast Cancer Risk Prediction and Mammography Biopsy Decisions

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Katrina; Handorf, Elizabeth A.; Chen, Jinbo; Demeter, Mirar N. Bristol

2012-01-01

Background Controversy continues about screening mammography, in part because of the risk of false-negative and false-positive mammograms. Pre-test breast cancer risk factors may improve the positive and negative predictive value of screening. Purpose To create a model that estimates the potential impact of pre-test risk prediction using clinical and genomic information on the reclassification of women with abnormal mammograms (BI-RADS3 and BI-RADS4 [Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System]) above and below the threshold for breast biopsy. Methods The current study modeled 1-year breast cancer risk in women with abnormal screening mammograms using existing data on breast cancer risk factors, 12 validated breast cancer single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and probability of cancer given the BI-RADS category. Examination was made of reclassification of women above and below biopsy thresholds of 1%, 2%, and 3% risk. The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium data were collected from 1996 to 2002. Data analysis was conducted in 2010 and 2011. Results Using a biopsy risk threshold of 2% and the standard risk factor model, 5% of women with a BI-RADS3 mammogram had a risk above the threshold, and 3% of women with BIRADS4A mammograms had a risk below the threshold. The addition of 12 SNPs in the model resulted in 8% of women with a BI-RADS3 mammogram above the threshold for biopsy and 7% of women with BI-RADS4A mammograms below the threshold. Conclusions The incorporation of pre-test breast cancer risk factors could change biopsy decisions for a small proportion of women with abnormal mammograms. The greatest impact comes from standard breast cancer risk factors. PMID:23253645

Environmental justice assessment for transportation : risk analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-04-01

This paper presents methods of comparing populations and their racial/ethnic compositions using tabulations, histograms, and Chi Squared tests for statistical significance of differences found. Two examples of these methods are presented: comparison ...

Budget impact analysis of gene expression tests to aid therapy decisions for breast cancer patients in Germany.

PubMed

Lux, M P; Nabieva, N; Hildebrandt, T; Rebscher, H; Kümmel, S; Blohmer, J-U; Schrauder, M G

2018-02-01

Many women with early-stage, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer may not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Gene expression tests can reduce chemotherapy over- and undertreatment by providing prognostic information on the likelihood of recurrence and, with Oncotype DX, predictive information on chemotherapy benefit. These tests are currently not reimbursed by German healthcare payers. An analysis was conducted to evaluate the budget impact of gene expression tests in Germany. Costs of gene expression tests and medical and non-medical costs associated with treatment were assessed from healthcare payer and societal perspectives. Costs were estimated from data collected at a university hospital and were combined with decision impact data for Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, Prosigna and EndoPredict (EPclin). Changes in chemotherapy use and budget impact were evaluated over 1 year for 20,000 women. Chemotherapy was associated with substantial annual costs of EUR 19,003 and EUR 84,412 per therapy from the healthcare payer and societal perspective, respectively. Compared with standard care, only Oncotype DX was associated with cost savings to healthcare payers and society (EUR 5.9 million and EUR 253 million, respectively). Scenario analysis showed that both women at high clinical but low genomic risk and low clinical but high genomic risk were important contributors to costs. Oncotype DX was the only gene expression test that was estimated to reduce costs versus standard care in Germany. The reimbursement of Oncotype DX testing in standard clinical practice in Germany should be considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of the performance confirmation program at YUCCA mountain, nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeCain, G.D.; Barr, D.; Weaver, D.; Snell, R.; Goodin, S.W.; Hansen, F.D.

2006-01-01

The Yucca Mountain Performance Confirmation program consists of tests, monitoring activities, experiments, and analyses to evaluate the adequacy of assumptions, data, and analyses that form the basis of the conceptual and numerical models of flow and transport associated with a proposed radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The Performance Confirmation program uses an eight-stage risk-informed, performance-based approach. Selection of the Performance Confirmation activities for inclusion in the Performance Confirmation program was done using a risk-informed performance-based decision analysis. The result of this analysis was a Performance Confirmation base portfolio that consists of 20 activities. The 20 Performance Confirmation activities include geologic, hydrologie, and construction/engineering testing. Some of the activities began during site characterization, and others will begin during construction, or post emplacement, and continue until repository closure.

Coalbed-methane pilots - timing, design, and analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roadifer, R.D.; Moore, T.R.

2009-10-15

Four distinct sequential phases form a recommended process for coalbed-methane (CBM)-prospect assessment: initial screening reconnaissance, pilot testing, and final appraisal. Stepping through these four phases provides a program of progressively ramping work and cost, while creating a series of discrete decision points at which analysis of results and risks can be assessed. While discussing each of these phases in some degree, this paper focuses on the third, the critically important pilot-testing phase. This paper contains roughly 30 specific recommendations and the fundamental rationale behind each recommendation to help ensure that a CBM pilot will fulfill its primary objectives of (1)more » demonstrating whether the subject coal reservoir will desorb and produce consequential gas and (2) gathering the data critical to evaluate and risk the prospect at the next-often most critical-decision point.« less

HIV infection and HIV-associated behaviors among persons who inject drugs--20 cities, United States, 2012.

PubMed

Spiller, Michael W; Broz, Dita; Wejnert, Cyprian; Nerlander, Lina; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2015-03-20

In the United States, an estimated 7% of new diagnoses of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in 2012 were attributed to injection drug use, and an additional 3% to male-to-male sexual contact and injection drug use. To monitor HIV prevalence and behaviors associated with HIV risk and prevention among persons who inject drugs (PWID), CDC's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) system conducts interviews and HIV testing in selected cities. This report summarizes HIV prevalence and behaviors among PWID interviewed and tested in 20 cities in 2012. Of the 10,002 PWID tested, 11% had a positive HIV test result. Among 9,425 PWID included in the behavioral analysis, 30% receptively shared syringes, 70% had vaginal sex without a condom, 25% had heterosexual anal sex without a condom, and 5% of males had male-to-male sexual contact without a condom in the previous 12 months. Fifty-one percent of PWID included in the behavioral analysis had been tested for HIV, 25% participated in an HIV behavioral intervention, and 39% participated in substance abuse treatment in the previous 12 months. Additional efforts are needed to reduce risk behaviors and increase access to HIV testing, drug treatment, and other HIV prevention programs to further reduce HIV infections among PWID.

Is diabetes mellitus a risk factor for HCV infection?

PubMed

Picerno, I; Di Pietro, A; Spataro, P; Di Benedetto, A; Romano, G; Scoglio, M E

2002-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether or not the diabetes mellitus may be considered a risk factor for the HCV infection. The HCV seroprevalence was evaluated in 254 diabetic subjects, whose anamnestic data and risk factors are known, in comparison to 223 first-time blood donors, carefully age- and gender-matched. The statistical analysis showed that the studied groups belonged to the same population (Mann-Whitney U test) and that there were no significant differences between cases and controls as regards HCV prevalence (Yates corrected chi 2 test). The obtained data underline the importance of the control group selection, especially in the studies considering age-related pathologies. The authors disprove type 2 diabetes as a risk factor for the HCV infection and consider that this is a valid hypothesis only when the hepatitis C was unknown and not adequate prevention was used.

Neuropsychological Assessment of Driving Safety Risk in Older Adults With and Without Neurologic Disease

PubMed Central

Anderson, Steven W.; Aksan, Nazan; Dawson, Jeffrey D.; Uc, Ergun Y.; Johnson, Amy M.; Rizzo, Matthew

2013-01-01

Decline in cognitive abilities can be an important contributor to the driving problems encountered by older adults, and neuropsychological assessment may provide a practical approach to evaluating this aspect of driving safety risk. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate several commonly used neuropsychological tests in the assessment of driving safety risk in older adults with and without neurological disease. A further goal of this study was to identify brief combinations of neuropsychological tests that sample performances in key functional domains and thus could be used to efficiently assess driving safety risk. 345 legally licensed and active drivers over the age of 50, with either no neurologic disease (N=185), probable Alzheimer's disease (N=40), Parkinson's disease (N=91), or stroke (N=29), completed vision testing, a battery of 10 neuropsychological tests, and an 18 mile drive on urban and rural roads in an instrumented vehicle. Performances on all neuropsychological tests were significantly correlated with driving safety errors. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to identify 3 key cognitive domains assessed by the tests (speed of processing, visuospatial abilities, and memory), and several brief batteries consisting of one test from each domain showed moderate corrected correlations with driving performance. These findings are consistent with the notion that driving places demands on multiple cognitive abilities that can be affected by aging and age-related neurological disease, and that neuropsychological assessment may provide a practical off-road window into the functional status of these cognitive systems. PMID:22943767

Neuropsychological assessment of driving safety risk in older adults with and without neurologic disease.

PubMed

Anderson, Steven W; Aksan, Nazan; Dawson, Jeffrey D; Uc, Ergun Y; Johnson, Amy M; Rizzo, Matthew

2012-01-01

Decline in cognitive abilities can be an important contributor to the driving problems encountered by older adults, and neuropsychological assessment may provide a practical approach to evaluating this aspect of driving safety risk. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate several commonly used neuropsychological tests in the assessment of driving safety risk in older adults with and without neurological disease. A further goal of this study was to identify brief combinations of neuropsychological tests that sample performances in key functional domains and thus could be used to efficiently assess driving safety risk. A total of 345 legally licensed and active drivers over the age of 50, with no neurologic disease (N = 185), probable Alzheimer's disease (N = 40), Parkinson's disease (N = 91), or stroke (N = 29), completed vision testing, a battery of 10 neuropsychological tests, and an 18-mile drive on urban and rural roads in an instrumented vehicle. Performances on all neuropsychological tests were significantly correlated with driving safety errors. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to identify 3 key cognitive domains assessed by the tests (speed of processing, visuospatial abilities, and memory), and several brief batteries consisting of one test from each domain showed moderate corrected correlations with driving performance. These findings are consistent with the notion that driving places demands on multiple cognitive abilities that can be affected by aging and age-related neurological disease, and that neuropsychological assessment may provide a practical off-road window into the functional status of these cognitive systems.

Frontal Lobe Function and Risk of Hip Fracture in Patient With Alzheimer Disease

PubMed Central

Roh, Hyun Woong; Hong, Chang Hyung; Lee, SooJin; Lee, Yunhwan; Lee, Kang Soo; Chang, Ki Jung; Oh, Byoung Hoon; Choi, Seong Hye; Kim, Seong Yoon; Back, Joung Hwan; Chung, Young Ki; Lim, Ki Young; Noh, Jai Sung; Son, Sang Joon

2015-01-01

Abstract To determine the association between frontal lobe function and risk of hip fracture in patients with Alzheimer disease (AD). Retrospective cohort study using multicenter hospital-based dementia registry and national health insurance claim data was done. Participants who had available data of neuropsychological test, national health insurance claim, and other covariates were included. A total of 1660 patients with AD were included based on Stroop Test results. A total of 1563 patients with AD were included based on the Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT) results. Hip fracture was measured by validated identification criteria using national health insurance claim data. Frontal lobe function was measured by Stroop Test and COWAT at baseline. After adjusting for potential covariates, including cognitive function in other domains (language, verbal and nonverbal memory, and attention), the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed that risk of a hip fracture was decreased with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.98 per one point of increase in the Stroop Test (adjusted HR = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97–1.00) and 0.93 per one point increase in COWAT (adjusted HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88–0.99). The risk of hip fracture in AD patients was associated with baseline frontal lobe function. The result of this research presents evidence of association between frontal lobe function and risk of hip fracture in patients with AD. PMID:26559259

Predicting tuberculosis risk in the foreign-born population of British Columbia, Canada: study protocol for a retrospective population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Ronald, Lisa A; Campbell, Jonathon R; Balshaw, Robert F; Roth, David Z; Romanowski, Kamila; Marra, Fawziah; Cook, Victoria J; Johnston, James C

2016-01-01

Introduction Improved understanding of risk factors for developing active tuberculosis (TB) will better inform decisions about diagnostic testing and treatment for latent TB infection (LTBI) in migrant populations in low-incidence regions. We aim to examine TB risk factors among the foreign-born population in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and to create and validate a clinically relevant multivariate risk score to predict active TB. Methods and analysis This retrospective population-based cohort study will include all foreign-born individuals who acquired permanent resident status in Canada between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2013 and acquired healthcare coverage in BC at any point during this period. Multiple administrative databases and disease registries will be linked, including a National Immigration Database, BC Provincial Health Insurance Registration, physician billings, hospitalisations, drugs dispensed from community pharmacies, vital statistics, HIV testing and notifications, cancer, chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment, and all TB and LTBI testing and treatment data in BC. Extended proportional hazards regression will be used to estimate risk factors for TB and to create a prognostic TB risk score. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for this study has been obtained from the University of British Columbia Clinical Ethics Review Board. Once completed, study findings will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. An online TB risk score calculator will also be created. PMID:27888179

A novel risk score for mortality in renal transplant recipients beyond the first posttransplant year.

PubMed

Hernández, Domingo; Sánchez-Fructuoso, Ana; González-Posada, José Manuel; Arias, Manuel; Campistol, Josep María; Rufino, Margarita; Morales, José María; Moreso, Francesc; Pérez, Germán; Torres, Armando; Serón, Daniel

2009-09-27

All-cause mortality is high after kidney transplantation (KT), but no prognostic index has focused on predicting mortality in KT using baseline and emergent comorbidity after KT. A total of 4928 KT recipients were used to derive a risk score predicting mortality. Patients were randomly assigned to two groups: a modeling population (n=2452), used to create a new index, and a testing population (n=2476), used to test this index. Multivariate Cox regression model coefficients of baseline (age, weight, time on dialysis, diabetes, hepatitis C, and delayed graft function) and emergent comorbidity within the first posttransplant year (diabetes, proteinuria, renal function, and immunosuppressants) were used to weigh each variable in the calculation of the score and allocated into risk quartiles. The probability of death at 3 years, estimated by baseline cumulative hazard function from the Cox model [P (death)=1-0.993592764 (exp(score/100)], increased from 0.9% in the lowest-risk quartile (score=40) to 4.7% in the highest risk-quartile (score=200). The observed incidence of death increased with increasing risk quartiles in testing population (log-rank analysis, P<0.0001). The overall C-index was 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.78) and 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.77) in both populations, respectively. This new index is an accurate tool to identify high-risk patients for mortality after KT.

Stratified exact tests for the weak causal null hypothesis in randomized trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Chiba, Yasutaka

2017-09-01

Fisher's exact test is commonly used to compare two groups when the outcome is binary in randomized trials. In the context of causal inference, this test explores the sharp causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal effect of treatment is the same for all subjects), but not the weak causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal risks are the same in the two groups). Therefore, in general, rejection of the null hypothesis by Fisher's exact test does not mean that the causal risk difference is not zero. Recently, Chiba (Journal of Biometrics and Biostatistics 2015; 6: 244) developed a new exact test for the weak causal null hypothesis when the outcome is binary in randomized trials; the new test is not based on any large sample theory and does not require any assumption. In this paper, we extend the new test; we create a version of the test applicable to a stratified analysis. The stratified exact test that we propose is general in nature and can be used in several approaches toward the estimation of treatment effects after adjusting for stratification factors. The stratified Fisher's exact test of Jung (Biometrical Journal 2014; 56: 129-140) tests the sharp causal null hypothesis. This test applies a crude estimator of the treatment effect and can be regarded as a special case of our proposed exact test. Our proposed stratified exact test can be straightforwardly extended to analysis of noninferiority trials and to construct the associated confidence interval. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Frequency of Testing for Dyslipidemia: An Evidence-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Dyslipidemias include high levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides and low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Dyslipidemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, which is a major contributor to mortality in Canada. Approximately 23% of the 2009/11 Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) participants had a high level of LDL cholesterol, with prevalence increasing with age, and approximately 15% had a total cholesterol to HDL ratio above the threshold. Objectives To evaluate the frequency of lipid testing in adults not diagnosed with dyslipidemia and in adults on treatment for dyslipidemia. Research Methods A systematic review of the literature set out to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs), systematic reviews, health technology assessments (HTAs), and observational studies published between January 1, 2000, and November 29, 2012, that evaluated the frequency of testing for dyslipidemia in the 2 populations. Results Two observational studies assessed the frequency of lipid testing, 1 in individuals not on lipid-lowering medications and 1 in treated individuals. Both studies were based on previously collected data intended for a different objective and, therefore, no conclusions could be reached about the frequency of testing at intervals other than the ones used in the original studies. Given this limitation and generalizability issues, the quality of evidence was considered very low. No evidence for the frequency of lipid testing was identified in the 2 HTAs included. Canadian and international guidelines recommend testing for dyslipidemia in individuals at an increased risk for cardiovascular disease. The frequency of testing recommended is based on expert consensus. Conclusions Conclusions on the frequency of lipid testing could not be made based on the 2 observational studies. Current guidelines recommend lipid testing in adults with increased cardiovascular risk, with the frequency of testing based on individual cardiovascular risk. PMID:26316920

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; De Micheli, Andrea; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Davies, Cathy; Ramella-Cravaro, Valentina; Oliver, Dominic; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Rocchetti, Matteo; Gavaghan, Lauren; Patel, Rashmi; McGuire, Philip

2018-02-15

The diagnostic and prognostic significance of the DSM-5-defined Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in individuals undergoing an ultra high risk (UHR) clinical assessment for suspicion of psychosis risk is unknown. Prospective cohort study including all consecutive help-seeking individuals undergoing both a DSM-5-APS and a Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS 12/2006) assessment for psychosis risk at the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) UHR service (March 2013-April 2014). The diagnostic significance of DSM-5-APS was assessed with percent overall agreement, prevalence bias adjusted kappa, Bowker's test, Stuart-Maxwell test, residual analysis; the prognostic significance with Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier failure function, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and net benefits analysis. The impact of specific revisions of the DSM-5-APS was further tested. In 203 help-seeking individuals undergoing UHR assessment, the agreement between the DSM-5-APS and the CAARMS 12/2006 was only moderate (kappa 0.59). Among 142 nonpsychotic cases, those meeting DSM-5-APS criteria had a 5-fold probability (HR = 5.379) of developing psychosis compared to those not meeting DSM-5-APS criteria, with a 21-month cumulative risk of psychosis of 28.17% vs 6.49%, respectively. The DSM-5-APS prognostic accuracy was acceptable (AUC 0.76 at 24 months) and similar to the CAARMS 12/2006. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful to guide the provision of indicated interventions within a 7%-35% (2-year) range of psychosis risk. The removal of the criterion E or C of the DSM-5-APS may improve its prognostic performance and transdiagnostic value. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful in individuals accessing clinical services for psychosis prevention. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

When does risk perception predict protection motivation for health threats? A person-by-situation analysis.

PubMed

Ferrer, Rebecca A; Klein, William M P; Avishai, Aya; Jones, Katelyn; Villegas, Megan; Sheeran, Paschal

2018-01-01

Although risk perception is a key concept in many health behavior theories, little research has explicitly tested when risk perception predicts motivation to take protective action against a health threat (protection motivation). The present study tackled this question by (a) adopting a multidimensional model of risk perception that comprises deliberative, affective, and experiential components (the TRIRISK model), and (b) taking a person-by-situation approach. We leveraged a highly intensive within-subjects paradigm to test features of the health threat (i.e., perceived severity) and individual differences (e.g., emotion reappraisal) as moderators of the relationship between the three types of risk perception and protection motivation in a within-subjects design. Multi-level modeling of 2968 observations (32 health threats across 94 participants) showed interactions among the TRIRISK components and moderation both by person-level and situational factors. For instance, affective risk perception better predicted protection motivation when deliberative risk perception was high, when the threat was less severe, and among participants who engage less in emotional reappraisal. These findings support the TRIRISK model and offer new insights into when risk perceptions predict protection motivation.

When does risk perception predict protection motivation for health threats? A person-by-situation analysis

PubMed Central

Klein, William M. P.; Avishai, Aya; Jones, Katelyn; Villegas, Megan; Sheeran, Paschal

2018-01-01

Although risk perception is a key concept in many health behavior theories, little research has explicitly tested when risk perception predicts motivation to take protective action against a health threat (protection motivation). The present study tackled this question by (a) adopting a multidimensional model of risk perception that comprises deliberative, affective, and experiential components (the TRIRISK model), and (b) taking a person-by-situation approach. We leveraged a highly intensive within-subjects paradigm to test features of the health threat (i.e., perceived severity) and individual differences (e.g., emotion reappraisal) as moderators of the relationship between the three types of risk perception and protection motivation in a within-subjects design. Multi-level modeling of 2968 observations (32 health threats across 94 participants) showed interactions among the TRIRISK components and moderation both by person-level and situational factors. For instance, affective risk perception better predicted protection motivation when deliberative risk perception was high, when the threat was less severe, and among participants who engage less in emotional reappraisal. These findings support the TRIRISK model and offer new insights into when risk perceptions predict protection motivation. PMID:29494705

Non-participation in predictive testing for Huntington's disease: individual decision-making, personality and avoidant behaviour in the family.

PubMed

Decruyenaere, M; Evers-Kiebooms, G; Boogaerts, A; Cloostermans, T; Cassiman, J J; Demyttenaere, K; Dom, R; Fryns, J P; Van den Berghe, H

1997-01-01

Subjective risk perception, perceived impact of Huntington's disease (HD), perceived benefits and barriers of predictive testing and personality characteristics of persons withdrawing from the predictive test programme for HD and of siblings of test applicants were studied in a mailed survey. The belief that important decisions do not need to depend on a test result and the anticipated inability to cope with a bad result played an important role in the decision not to be tested. Nevertheless half of the group who ever considered testing, still planned to undergo a test in the future. A comparison of tested and untested persons revealed that the first group is more likely to overestimate the risk than the second group, but that both groups did not significantly differ from each other regarding anxiety, ego strength and coping strategies. An intrafamilial analysis of tested and untested siblings confirmed these findings. The problems during data collection and the reasons for the dropout are an illustration of the avoidant behaviour regarding HD and the predictive test in many individuals and families.

Cross-Sectional Study to Assess Risk Factors for Leishmaniasis in an Endemic Region in Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Ranasinghe, Shalindra; Wickremasinghe, Rajitha; Munasinghe, Asoka; Hulangamuwa, Sanjeeva; Sivanantharajah, Sundaramoorthy; Seneviratne, Kamal; Bandara, Samantha; Athauda, Indira; Navaratne, Chaturi; Silva, Ositha; Wackwella, Hasini; Matlashewski, Greg; Wickremasinghe, Renu

2013-01-01

Sri Lanka reports significantly more cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) cases than visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases, both of which are caused by Leishmania donovani MON-37. A cross-sectional study conducted in an area with a high prevalence of CL prevalent included 954 participants of an estimated population of 61,674 to estimate the number of CL cases, ascertain whether there is a pool of asymptomatic VL cases, and identify risk factors for transmission. A total of 31 cases of CL were identified, of whom 21 were previously diagnosed and 10 were new cases. Using rK39 rapid diagnostic test to detect antibodies against Leishmania spp., we found that only one person was seropositive but did not have clinical symptoms of CL or VL, which indicated low transmission of VL in this area. χ2 test, independent sample t-test, and multivariate analysis of sociodemographic and spatial distribution of environmental risk factors showed that living near paddy fields is associated with increased risk for transmission of CL (P ≤ 0.01). PMID:23918217

Frailty measurements and dysphagia in the outpatient setting.

PubMed

Hathaway, Bridget; Vaezi, Alec; Egloff, Ann Marie; Smith, Libby; Wasserman-Wincko, Tamara; Johnson, Jonas T

2014-09-01

Deconditioning and frailty may contribute to dysphagia and aspiration. Early identification of patients at risk of aspiration is important. Aspiration prevention would lead to reduced morbidity and health care costs. We therefore wondered whether objective measurements of frailty could help identify patients at risk for dysphagia and aspiration. Consecutive patients (n = 183) were enrolled. Patient characteristics and objective measures of frailty were recorded prospectively. Variables tested included age, body mass index, grip strength, and 5 meter walk pace. Statistical analysis tested for association between these parameters and dysphagia or aspiration, diagnosed by instrumental swallowing examination. Of variables tested for association with grip strength, only age category (P = .003) and ambulatory status (P < .001) were significantly associated with grip strength in linear regression models. Whereas walk speed was not associated with dysphagia or aspiration, ambulatory status was significantly associated with dysphagia and aspiration in multivariable model building. Nonambulatory status is a predictor of aspiration and should be included in risk assessments for dysphagia. The relationship between frailty and dysphagia deserves further investigation. Frailty assessments may help identify those at risk for complications of dysphagia. © The Author(s) 2014.

Cleveland Clinic Rehabilitation Research Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

risks have been identified that would require a new risk analysis. The study is now registered as a pilot clinical trial. Use of tDCS , TMS and structural...using behavioral recording and electroencephalographic ( EEG ) recording and results were published. Study 2: The motor cortex (M1) and the...four pilot projects. Study 1: Magnetic stimulation and epilepsy In this study, transcranial magnetic stimulation ( TMS ) will be tested for its