Science.gov

Sample records for risk analytic contributions

  1. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental cost of renewable energy

  2. A Survey of Risk Analytics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picoult, Evan

    2003-03-01

    Risk Analytical Units within Wall Street firms are responsible for developing the methods used to quantify the different forms of risk inherent in the firms' activities. This talk is an overview of risk analytics. It will cover: the function and validation of valuation models; the measurement of market risk; and the measurement of the different aspects of and forms of credit risk, including the simulation of the potential counterparty credit exposure of derivatives, the estimation of obligor default probability and the simulation of the potential loss distribution of loan portfolios. Risk Analytics is an applied field that integrates finance theory, mathematics and statistical analysis. It is a field in that has attracted many physicists and one in which many physicists have flourished. The talk will conclude with an analysis of why this is so.

  3. [Contributions and novelties from Functional Analytic Psychotherapy].

    PubMed

    Ferro García, Rafael; Valero Aguayo, Luis; López Bermúdez, Miguel A

    2007-08-01

    Functional Analytic Psychotherapy is based on the principles of radical behaviourism. It emphasises the impact of events occurring during therapeutic sessions, the therapist-client interaction context, functional equivalence of environments, natural reinforcement, and shaping by the therapist. Functional Analytic Psychotherapy makes use of both the basic principles of behaviour analysis: individual functional assessment and application of in vivo treatment. This paper analyses novelties and new contributions of this therapy. New contributions are classified in various categories: integration with other psychotherapies, improvement of therapeutic skills, methods for evaluation and data recording in therapy, its application to several clinical problems, and studies of its efficacy.

  4. Risk analytics for hedge funds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pareek, Ankur

    2005-05-01

    The rapid growth of the hedge fund industry presents significant business opportunity for the institutional investors particularly in the form of portfolio diversification. To facilitate this, there is a need to develop a new set of risk analytics for investments consisting of hedge funds, with the ultimate aim to create transparency in risk measurement without compromising the proprietary investment strategies of hedge funds. As well documented in the literature, use of dynamic options like strategies by most of the hedge funds make their returns highly non-normal with fat tails and high kurtosis, thus rendering Value at Risk (VaR) and other mean-variance analysis methods unsuitable for hedge fund risk quantification. This paper looks at some unique concerns for hedge fund risk management and will particularly concentrate on two approaches from physical world to model the non-linearities and dynamic correlations in hedge fund portfolio returns: Self Organizing Criticality (SOC) and Random Matrix Theory (RMT).Random Matrix Theory analyzes correlation matrix between different hedge fund styles and filters random noise from genuine correlations arising from interactions within the system. As seen in the results of portfolio risk analysis, it leads to a better portfolio risk forecastability and thus to optimum allocation of resources to different hedge fund styles. The results also prove the efficacy of self-organized criticality and implied portfolio correlation as a tool for risk management and style selection for portfolios of hedge funds, being particularly effective during non-linear market crashes.

  5. Contemporary Privacy Theory Contributions to Learning Analytics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heath, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    With the continued adoption of learning analytics in higher education institutions, vast volumes of data are generated and "big data" related issues, including privacy, emerge. Privacy is an ill-defined concept and subject to various interpretations and perspectives, including those of philosophers, lawyers, and information systems…

  6. The contribution of Raman spectroscopy to the analytical quality control of cytotoxic drugs in a hospital environment: eliminating the exposure risks for staff members and their work environment.

    PubMed

    Bourget, Philippe; Amin, Alexandre; Vidal, Fabrice; Merlette, Christophe; Troude, Pénélope; Baillet-Guffroy, Arlette

    2014-08-15

    The purpose of the study was to perform a comparative analysis of the technical performance, respective costs and environmental effect of two invasive analytical methods (HPLC and UV/visible-FTIR) as compared to a new non-invasive analytical technique (Raman spectroscopy). Three pharmacotherapeutic models were used to compare the analytical performances of the three analytical techniques. Statistical inter-method correlation analysis was performed using non-parametric correlation rank tests. The study's economic component combined calculations relative to the depreciation of the equipment and the estimated cost of an AQC unit of work. In any case, analytical validation parameters of the three techniques were satisfactory, and strong correlations between the two spectroscopic techniques vs. HPLC were found. In addition, Raman spectroscopy was found to be superior as compared to the other techniques for numerous key criteria including a complete safety for operators and their occupational environment, a non-invasive procedure, no need for consumables, and a low operating cost. Finally, Raman spectroscopy appears superior for technical, economic and environmental objectives, as compared with the other invasive analytical methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk prioritisation using the analytic hierarchy process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sum, Rabihah Md.

    2015-12-01

    This study demonstrated how to use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritise risks of an insurance company. AHP is a technique to structure complex problems by arranging elements of the problems in a hierarchy, assigning numerical values to subjective judgements on the relative importance of the elements and synthesizing the judgements to determine which elements have the highest priority. The study is motivated by wide application of AHP as a prioritisation technique in complex problems. It aims to show AHP is able to minimise some limitations of risk assessment technique using likelihood and impact. The study shows AHP is able to provide consistency check on subjective judgements, organise a large number of risks into a structured framework, assist risk managers to make explicit risk trade-offs, and provide an easy to understand and systematic risk assessment process.

  8. Contributions of Analytical Chemistry to the Clinical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skogerboe, Kristen J.

    1988-01-01

    Highlights several analytical techniques that are being used in state-of-the-art clinical labs. Illustrates how other advances in instrumentation may contribute to clinical chemistry in the future. Topics include: biosensors, polarization spectroscopy, chemiluminescence, fluorescence, photothermal deflection, and chromatography in clinical…

  9. Behavior Analytic Contributions to the Study of Creativity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kubina, Richard M., Jr.; Morrison, Rebecca S.; Lee, David L.

    2006-01-01

    As researchers continue to study creativity, a behavior analytic perspective may provide new vistas by offering an additional perspective. Contemporary behavior analysis began with B. F. Skinner and offers a selectionist approach to the scientific investigation of creativity. Behavior analysis contributes to the study of creativity by…

  10. Contributions of Analytical Chemistry to the Clinical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skogerboe, Kristen J.

    1988-01-01

    Highlights several analytical techniques that are being used in state-of-the-art clinical labs. Illustrates how other advances in instrumentation may contribute to clinical chemistry in the future. Topics include: biosensors, polarization spectroscopy, chemiluminescence, fluorescence, photothermal deflection, and chromatography in clinical…

  11. The influence of retrieval practice on metacognition: The contribution of analytic and non-analytic processes.

    PubMed

    Miller, Tyler M; Geraci, Lisa

    2016-05-01

    People may change their memory predictions after retrieval practice using naïve theories of memory and/or by using subjective experience - analytic and non-analytic processes respectively. The current studies disentangled contributions of each process. In one condition, learners studied paired-associates, made a memory prediction, completed a short-run of retrieval practice and made a second prediction. In another condition, judges read about a yoked learners' retrieval practice performance but did not participate in retrieval practice and therefore, could not use non-analytic processes for the second prediction. In Study 1, learners reduced their predictions following moderately difficult retrieval practice whereas judges increased their predictions. In Study 2, learners made lower adjusted predictions than judges following both easy and difficult retrieval practice. In Study 3, judge-like participants used analytic processes to report adjusted predictions. Overall, the results suggested non-analytic processes play a key role for participants to reduce their predictions after retrieval practice.

  12. Economic Risk Analysis: Using Analytical and Monte Carlo Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, Brendan R.; Hickner, Michael A.; Barna, Bruce A.

    2002-01-01

    Describes the development and instructional use of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet template that facilitates analytical and Monte Carlo risk analysis of investment decisions. Discusses a variety of risk assessment methods followed by applications of the analytical and Monte Carlo methods. Uses a case study to illustrate use of the spreadsheet tool…

  13. Determining hospital risk management staffing through analytics.

    PubMed

    Howard, Chrystina M; Felton, Kenneth W

    2013-01-01

    This article presents the development of an independent research project to gather time data from hospital risk managers in order to establish an objective, justifiable means of determining staffing levels recommended to support risk management activities and department functions. © 2013 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  14. Contribution of Electrochemistry to the Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Analytical Sciences.

    PubMed

    Kauffmann, Jean-Michel; Patris, Stephanie; Vandeput, Marie; Sarakbi, Ahmad; Sakira, Abdul Karim

    2016-01-01

    All analytical techniques have experienced major progress since the last ten years and electroanalysis is also involved in this trend. The unique characteristics of phenomena occurring at the electrode-solution interface along with the variety of electrochemical methods currently available allow for a broad spectrum of applications. Potentiometric, conductometric, voltammetric and amperometric methods are briefly reviewed with a critical view in terms of performance of the developed instrumentation with special emphasis on pharmaceutical and biomedical applications.

  15. 7 CFR 1400.7 - Commensurate contributions and risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commensurate contributions and risk. 1400.7 Section... contributions and risk. (a) In order to be considered eligible to receive payments under the programs specified...'s contribution(s) to the operation; (2) Contribution(s) to the farming operation that are at risk...

  16. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    PubMed

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  17. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    PubMed

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Quantifying risks with exact analytical solutions of derivative pricing distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Kun; Liu, Jing; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

    2017-04-01

    Derivative (i.e. option) pricing is essential for modern financial instrumentations. Despite of the previous efforts, the exact analytical forms of the derivative pricing distributions are still challenging to obtain. In this study, we established a quantitative framework using path integrals to obtain the exact analytical solutions of the statistical distribution for bond and bond option pricing for the Vasicek model. We discuss the importance of statistical fluctuations away from the expected option pricing characterized by the distribution tail and their associations to value at risk (VaR). The framework established here is general and can be applied to other financial derivatives for quantifying the underlying statistical distributions.

  19. Multi-analytical Approaches Informing the Risk of Sepsis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Lewden, Benoit; Mequanint, Selam; Bauer, Michael

    Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is huge. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multiple analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater insight. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach and a cluster analysis approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities,while considering their clinical significance.

  20. Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

    PubMed

    Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

    2013-09-01

    The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

    2016-08-01

    This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

  2. The delayed contribution of low and intermediate mass stars to chemical galactic enrichment: An analytical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franco, I.; Carigi, L.

    2008-10-01

    We find a new analytical solution for the chemical evolution equations, taking into account the delayed contribution of all low and intermediate mass stars (LIMS) as one representative star that enriches the interstellar medium. This solution is built only for star formation rate proportional to the gas mass in a closed box model. We obtain increasing C/O and N/O ratios with increasing O/H, behavior impossible to match with the Instantaneous Recycling Approximation (IRA). Our results, obtained by two analytical equations, are very similar to those found by numerical models that consider the lifetimes of each star. This delayed model reproduces successfully the evolution of the C/O-O/H and Y - O relations in the solar vicinity. This analytical approximation is a useful tool to study the chemical evolution of elements produced by LIMS when a galactic chemical evolutionary code is not available.

  3. Identifying and quantifying contaminants contributing to endogenous analytes in gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Tsikas, Dimitrios

    2010-09-15

    Contaminants from various sources including medical devices, laboratory materials and the environment, and analytical apparatus may contribute to their endogenous congeners at different stages of the analytical process. Here, an approach is reported for the identification and quantification of contaminating analytes in biological fluids by stable-isotope dilution gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (GC/MS/MS) methods. This approach is based on the analysis of different sample volumes and determination of the peak area ratio (PAR) of the endogenous analyte to the stable-isotope labeled analogue serving as the internal standard. The PAR is obtained by selected-ion monitoring or selected-reaction monitoring of appropriate ions. Generation of PAR values that correlate inversely with the sample volume subjected to analysis reveals the existence of contamination. The extent of contamination is obtained by plotting the PAR of endogenous analyte to internal standard versus the reciprocal of the sample volume analyzed. Examples are given for uncontaminated and contaminated endogenous analytes in biological samples, including nitrite and nitrate analyzed by GC/MS, and the fatty acid metabolites oleic acid oxide, oleic acid ethanol amide, and arachidonic acid ethanol amide analyzed by GC/MS/MS. Dependence of the PAR of endogenous analyte to its internal standard upon derivatization time reveals a unique kind of contamination that was identified in the GC/MS analysis of nitrate in plasma as pentafluorobenzyl ester. This kind of contamination occurs at the latest stage of GC/MS analysis and cannot be controlled by reference to the internal standard.

  4. Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

    PubMed Central

    Layton, J. Bradley

    2010-01-01

    Background The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. Objectives This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data Extraction Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Results Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). Conclusions The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20668659

  5. EXAMPLES OF THE ROLE OF ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY IN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH

    EPA Science Inventory

    Analytical chemistry is an important tier of environmental protection and has been traditionally linked to compliance and/or exposure monitoring activities for environmental contaminants. The adoption of the risk management paradigm has led to special challenges for analytical ch...

  6. Psychosocial Risk Factors Contributing to Adolescent Suicidal Ideation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harter, Susan; Marold, Donna B.

    1994-01-01

    Presents evidence for a model of risk factors, including depression, hopelessness, lack of social support, and negative self-evaluations, that contribute to suicidal ideation among normative and clinically depressed adolescents. (HTH)

  7. NEURAL CORRELATES OF VALUE, RISK AND RISK AVERSION CONTRIBUTING TO DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK

    PubMed Central

    Christopoulos, George I.; Tobler, Philippe N.; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J.; Schultz, Wolfram

    2009-01-01

    Decision-making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk. PMID:19812332

  8. Genetic contributions to antisocial personality and behavior: a meta-analytic review from an evolutionary perspective.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Christopher J

    2010-01-01

    Evidence from behavioral genetics supports the conclusion that a significant amount of the variance in antisocial personality and behavior (APB) is due to genetic contributions. Many scientific fields such as psychology, medicine, and criminal justice struggle to incorporate this information with preexisting paradigms that focused exclusively on external or learned etiology of antisocial behavior. The current paper presents a meta-analytic review of behavioral genetic etiological studies of APB. Results indicated that 56% of the variance in APB can be explained through genetic influences, with 11% due to shared non-genetic influences, and 31% due to unique non-genetic influences. This data is discussed in relation to evolutionary psychological theory.

  9. Decision analytic strategies for integrating ecosystem services and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    von Stackelberg, Katherine E

    2013-04-01

    Ecosystem services as a concept and guiding principle are enjoying wide popularity and endorsement from high-level policy thinkers to industry as support for sustainability goals continue to grow. However, explicit incorporation of ecosystem services into decision making still lacks practical implementation at more local scales and faces significant regulatory and technical constraints. Risk assessment represents an example of a regulatory process for which guidance exists that makes it challenging to incorporate ecosystem service endpoints. Technical constraints exist in the quantification of the relationships between ecological functions and services and endpoints valued by humans, and the complexity of those interactions with respect to bundling and stacking. In addition, ecosystem services, by their very definition, represent an anthropogenic construct with no inherent ecological value, which, in practical terms, requires a far more inclusionary decision making process explicitly incorporating a greater diversity of stakeholder values. Despite these constraints, it is possible, given a commitment to sustainable decision making, to simplify the process based on strategic outcomes (e.g., identifying desired end-states in general terms). Decision analytic techniques provide a mechanism for evaluating tradeoffs across key ecosystem services valued by stakeholders and to develop criteria drawn from the entire spectrum of stakeholders in evaluating potential alternatives. This article highlights several examples of ways in which ecosystem service endpoints can be incorporated into the decision-making process.

  10. Substantial contribution of extrinsic risk factors to cancer development

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Song; Powers, Scott; Zhu, Wei; Hannun, Yusuf A

    2015-01-01

    Summary Recent research has highlighted a strong correlation between tissue-specific cancer risk and the lifetime number of tissue-specific stem cell divisions. Whether such correlation implies a high unavoidable intrinsic cancer risk has become a key public health debate with dissemination of the ‘bad luck’ hypothesis. Here we provide evidence that intrinsic risk factors contribute only modestly (<10~30%) to cancer development. First, we demonstrate that the correlation between stem-cell division and cancer risk does not distinguish between the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Next, we show that intrinsic risk is better estimated by the lower bound risk controlling for total stem cell divisions. Finally, we show that the rates of endogenous mutation accumulation by intrinsic processes are not sufficient to account for the observed cancer risks. Collectively, we conclude that cancer risk is heavily influenced by extrinsic factors. These results carry immense consequences for strategizing cancer prevention, research, and public health. PMID:26675728

  11. Heterogeneity of Psychosis Risk Within Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Meta-analytical Stratification.

    PubMed

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Cappucciati, Marco; Borgwardt, Stefan; Woods, Scott W; Addington, Jean; Nelson, Barnaby; Nieman, Dorien H; Stahl, Daniel R; Rutigliano, Grazia; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Simon, Andor E; Mizuno, Masafumi; Lee, Tae Young; Kwon, Jun Soo; Lam, May M L; Perez, Jesus; Keri, Szabolcs; Amminger, Paul; Metzler, Sibylle; Kawohl, Wolfram; Rössler, Wulf; Lee, Jimmy; Labad, Javier; Ziermans, Tim; An, Suk Kyoon; Liu, Chen-Chung; Woodberry, Kristen A; Braham, Amel; Corcoran, Cheryl; McGorry, Patrick; Yung, Alison R; McGuire, Philip K

    2016-02-01

    Individuals can be classified as being at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis if they meet at least one of the ultra-high-risk (UHR) inclusion criteria (brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms [BLIPS] and/or attenuated psychotic symptoms [APS] and/or genetic risk and deterioration syndrome [GRD]) and/or basic symptoms [BS]. The meta-analytical risk of psychosis of these different subgroups is still unknown. To compare the risk of psychosis in CHR individuals who met at least one of the major inclusion criteria and in individuals not at CHR for psychosis (CHR-). Electronic databases (Web of Science, MEDLINE, Scopus) were searched until June 18, 2015, along with investigation of citations of previous publications and a manual search of the reference lists of retrieved articles. We included original follow-up studies of CHR individuals who reported the risk of psychosis classified according to the presence of any BLIPS, APS and GRD, APS alone, GRD alone, BS, and CHR-. Independent extraction by multiple observers and random-effects meta-analysis of proportions. Moderators were tested with meta-regression analyses (Bonferroni corrected). Heterogeneity was assessed with the I2 index. Sensitivity analyses tested robustness of results. Publication biases were assessed with funnel plots and the Egger test. The proportion of each subgroup with any psychotic disorder at 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 or more months of follow-up. Thirty-three independent studies comprising up to 4227 individuals were included. The meta-analytical proportion of individuals meeting each UHR subgroup at intake was: 0.85 APS (95%CI, 0.79-0.90), 0.1 BLIPS (95%CI, 0.06-0.14), and 0.05 GRD (95%CI, 0.03-0.07). There were no significant differences in psychosis risk at any time point between the APS and GRD and the APS-alone subgroups. There was a higher risk of psychosis in the any BLIPS greater than APS greater than GRD-alone subgroups at 24, 36, and 48 or more months of follow-up. There was no

  12. Using data analytics to identify revenue at risk.

    PubMed

    Thayer, Courtney; Bruno, Jerry; Remorenko, Mary Beth

    2013-09-01

    Key factors for successfully using data analytics to improve revenue cycle performance include the following: Senior leaders who engage physicians and work with business unit owners to gain ground-level insights. Communication and learning. Embedded analytics. Transparency related to what the data show, how the data will be used, and what items have been brought to light via data analysis. Real-time monitoring of data. Incorporation of staff feedback in continually improving analytical modeling capabilities.

  13. Perinatal periods of risk: analytic preparation and phase 1 analytic methods for investigating feto-infant mortality.

    PubMed

    Sappenfield, William M; Peck, Magda G; Gilbert, Carol S; Haynatzka, Vera R; Bryant, Thomas

    2010-11-01

    The Perinatal Periods of Risk (PPOR) methods provide the necessary framework and tools for large urban communities to investigate feto-infant mortality problems. Adapted from the Periods of Risk model developed by Dr. Brian McCarthy, the six-stage PPOR approach includes epidemiologic methods to be used in conjunction with community planning processes. Stage 2 of the PPOR approach has three major analytic parts: Analytic Preparation, which involves acquiring, preparing, and assessing vital records files; Phase 1 Analysis, which identifies local opportunity gaps; and Phase 2 Analyses, which investigate the opportunity gaps to determine likely causes of feto-infant mortality and to suggest appropriate actions. This article describes the first two analytic parts of PPOR, including methods, innovative aspects, rationale, limitations, and a community example. In Analytic Preparation, study files are acquired and prepared and data quality is assessed. In Phase 1 Analysis, feto-infant mortality is estimated for four distinct perinatal risk periods defined by both birthweight and age at death. These mutually exclusive risk periods are labeled Maternal Health and Prematurity, Maternal Care, Newborn Care, and Infant Health to suggest primary areas of prevention. Disparities within the study community are identified by comparing geographic areas, subpopulations, and time periods. Excess mortality numbers and rates are estimated by comparing the study population to an optimal reference population. This excess mortality is described as the opportunity gap because it indicates where communities have the potential to make improvement.

  14. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roux, Izak Johannes, III

    Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

  15. An analytical ergonomic risk evaluation of body postures during daily cleaning tasks in horse stables.

    PubMed

    Löfqvist, Lotta; Osvalder, Anna-Lisa; Bligård, Lars-Ola; Pinzke, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are a common reason for health problems and sick leave in many professions. A work arena where MSDs have not been sufficiently studied is stable work. Here many heavy and repetitive work tasks are performed manually with old-fashioned working tools. The aim of this study was to use an analytical approach to identify, evaluate and grade ergonomic problems in physical work performed during daily activities in horse stables and relate these to MSDs among the workers and to the design of the tools. Three common work tasks were studied to identify, evaluate and grade ergonomic problems; mucking out, sweeping and bedding replacement. Used methods were Hierarchical Task Analysis, Heuristic Evaluation and Rapid Entire Body Assessment. Several high-risk operations were found in mucking out boxes and disposal of bedding material. The problems consisted of awkward working postures such as a twisted and bent back, arms in an elevated position, wrists in extreme joint positions and handling of heavy loads. By using an analytical approach it is possible to identify presumptive ergonomic problems without extensive empirical research. In most high-risk operations, long-shafted tools or a wheelbarrow were used, which emphasize a need to develop tools with better ergonomic design to improve the working situation. The limitation is that the ergonomics problems found are not finally validated. The results show where deeper empirical research is needed, both regarding how MSDs occur and how tools and environment contribute to physical problems.

  16. Common polygenic variation contributes to risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

    PubMed

    Purcell, Shaun M; Wray, Naomi R; Stone, Jennifer L; Visscher, Peter M; O'Donovan, Michael C; Sullivan, Patrick F; Sklar, Pamela

    2009-08-06

    Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder with a lifetime risk of about 1%, characterized by hallucinations, delusions and cognitive deficits, with heritability estimated at up to 80%. We performed a genome-wide association study of 3,322 European individuals with schizophrenia and 3,587 controls. Here we show, using two analytic approaches, the extent to which common genetic variation underlies the risk of schizophrenia. First, we implicate the major histocompatibility complex. Second, we provide molecular genetic evidence for a substantial polygenic component to the risk of schizophrenia involving thousands of common alleles of very small effect. We show that this component also contributes to the risk of bipolar disorder, but not to several non-psychiatric diseases.

  17. Mort User's Manual: For use with the Management Oversight and Risk Tree analytical logic diagram

    SciTech Connect

    Knox, N.W.; Eicher, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    This report contains the User's Manual for MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree), a logic diagram in the form of a work sheet'' that illustrates a long series of interrelated questions. MORT is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1500 specific elements of an ideal universal'' management program for optimizing environment, safety and health, and other programs. This User's Manual is intended to be used with the MORT diagram dated February 1992.

  18. Simple analytical methods for computing the gravity-wave contribution to the cosmic background radiation anisotropy

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Y.

    1996-01-01

    We present two simple analytical methods for computing the gravity-wave contribution to the cosmic background radiation (CBR) anisotropy in inflationary models; one method uses a time-dependent transfer function, the other methods uses an approximate gravity-mode function which is a simple combination of the lowest order spherical Bessel functions. We compare the CBR anisotropy tensor multipole spectrum computed using our methods with the previous result of the highly accurate numerical method, the {open_quote}{open_quote}Boltzmann{close_quote}{close_quote} method. Our time-dependent transfer function is more accurate than the time-independent transfer function found by Turner, White, and Lindsey; however, we find that the transfer function method is only good for {ital l}{approx_lt}120. Using our approximate gravity-wave mode function, we obtain much better accuracy; the tensor multipole spectrum we find differs by less than 2{percent} for {ital l}{approx_lt}50, less than 10{percent} for {ital l}{approx_lt}120, and less than 20{percent} for {ital l}{le}300 from the {open_quote}{open_quote}Boltzmann{close_quote}{close_quote} result. Our approximate graviton mode function should be quite useful in studying tensor perturbations from inflationary models. {copyright} {ital 1996 The American Physical Society.}

  19. Aspartame and Risk of Cancer: A Meta-analytic Review.

    PubMed

    Mallikarjun, Sreekanth; Sieburth, Rebecca McNeill

    2015-01-01

    Aspartame (APM) is the most commonly used artificial sweetener and flavor enhancer in the world. There is a rise in concern that APM is carcinogenic due to a variation in the findings of the previous APM carcinogenic bioassays. This article conducts a meta-analytic review of all previous APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents that were conducted before 31 December 2012. The search yielded 10 original APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents. The aggregate effect sizes suggest that APM consumption has no significant carcinogenic effect in rodents.

  20. Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity.

    PubMed

    Melbourne, Brett A; Hastings, Alan

    2008-07-03

    Extinction risk in natural populations depends on stochastic factors that affect individuals, and is estimated by incorporating such factors into stochastic models. Stochasticity can be divided into four categories, which include the probabilistic nature of birth and death at the level of individuals (demographic stochasticity), variation in population-level birth and death rates among times or locations (environmental stochasticity), the sex of individuals and variation in vital rates among individuals within a population (demographic heterogeneity). Mechanistic stochastic models that include all of these factors have not previously been developed to examine their combined effects on extinction risk. Here we derive a family of stochastic Ricker models using different combinations of all these stochastic factors, and show that extinction risk depends strongly on the combination of factors that contribute to stochasticity. Furthermore, we show that only with the full stochastic model can the relative importance of environmental and demographic variability, and therefore extinction risk, be correctly determined. Using the full model, we find that demographic sources of stochasticity are the prominent cause of variability in a laboratory population of Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle), whereas using only the standard simpler models would lead to the erroneous conclusion that environmental variability dominates. Our results demonstrate that current estimates of extinction risk for natural populations could be greatly underestimated because variability has been mistakenly attributed to the environment rather than the demographic factors described here that entail much higher extinction risk for the same variability level.

  1. Analytical calculation of radiative-recoil corrections to muonium hyperfine splitting: Muon-line contribution

    SciTech Connect

    Eides, M.I.; Karshenboim, S.G.; Shelyuto, V.A. )

    1991-02-01

    Analytic expression for radiative-recoil corrections to muonium ground-state hyperfine splitting induced by muon-line radiative insertions is obtained. This result completes the program of analytic calculation of all radiative-recoil corrections. The perspectives of further muonium hyperfine splitting investigations are also discussed.

  2. Real social analytics: A contribution towards a phenomenology of a digital world.

    PubMed

    Couldry, Nick; Fotopoulou, Aristea; Dickens, Luke

    2016-03-01

    This article argues against the assumption that agency and reflexivity disappear in an age of 'algorithmic power' (Lash 2007). Following the suggestions of Beer (2009), it proposes that, far from disappearing, new forms of agency and reflexivity around the embedding in everyday practice of not only algorithms but also analytics more broadly are emerging, as social actors continue to pursue their social ends but mediated through digital interfaces: this is the consequence of many social actors now needing their digital presence, regardless of whether they want this, to be measured and counted. The article proposes 'social analytics' as a new topic for sociology: the sociological study of social actors' uses of analytics not for the sake of measurement itself (or to make profit from measurement) but in order to fulfil better their social ends through an enhancement of their digital presence. The article places social analytics in the context of earlier debates about categorization, algorithmic power, and self-presentation online, and describes in detail a case study with a UK community organization which generated the social analytics approach. The article concludes with reflections on the implications of this approach for further sociological fieldwork in a digital world. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2016.

  3. Genetic and environmental contributions to social anxiety across different ages: a meta-analytic approach to twin data.

    PubMed

    Scaini, Simona; Belotti, Raffaella; Ogliari, Anna

    2014-10-01

    Social anxiety disorder (SAD) and social anxiety symptoms (SAS) have been largely studied both epidemiologically and genetically, however, estimates of genetic and environmental influences for these phenotypes widely vary across reports. Based upon available literature, 13 cohorts (42,585 subjects) were included in 3 meta-analytic estimates of the standardized variance components of aetiological influences on SAD/SAS, on the effect of age and of phenotype (symptoms vs. diagnosis). The proportions of variance accounted for by genetic and environmental factors were calculated by averaging estimates among studies, and pondered by the number of individuals in each sample. Meta-analytic estimations showed that genetic and non-shared environmental factors explain most of individual differences for SAD/SAS. In adults, the genetic contribution was half than that in younger patients, with higher contribution of non-shared environmental influences. In contrast, the shared environmental factors seem to be less relevant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. About Skinner and Time: Behavior-Analytic Contributions to Research on Animal Timing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lejeune, Helga; Richelle, Marc; Wearden, J. H.

    2006-01-01

    The article discusses two important influences of B. F. Skinner, and later workers in the behavior-analytic tradition, on the study of animal timing. The first influence is methodological, and is traced from the invention of schedules imposing temporal constraints or periodicities on animals in "The Behavior of Organisms," through the rate…

  5. About Skinner and Time: Behavior-Analytic Contributions to Research on Animal Timing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lejeune, Helga; Richelle, Marc; Wearden, J. H.

    2006-01-01

    The article discusses two important influences of B. F. Skinner, and later workers in the behavior-analytic tradition, on the study of animal timing. The first influence is methodological, and is traced from the invention of schedules imposing temporal constraints or periodicities on animals in "The Behavior of Organisms," through the rate…

  6. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

    2016-01-01

    With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs. PMID:27983713

  7. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

    2016-12-15

    With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM³ ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

  8. Experimental and analytical studies for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Various experimental and analytical studies performed for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment program are described with emphasis on carbon fiber characteristics, sensitivity of electrical equipment and components to shorting or arcing by carbon fibers, attenuation effect of carbon fibers on aircraft landing aids, impact of carbon fibers on industrial facilities. A simple method of estimating damage from airborne carbon fibers is presented.

  9. Roy Schafer's contributions to psychological testing: from clinical sensibility to the analytic attitude.

    PubMed

    Fritsch, Richard C

    2013-01-01

    The author reviews Schafer's contributions to psychological testing, emphasizing his development of the test battery, his significant contributions to psychoanalytically oriented Rorschach interpretation, and his understanding of the complex interpersonal dynamics involved in psychological test interpretation. The author also discusses his use of Schafer's writing in his own teaching and academic work, noting that Schafer's contributions have not only provided innovative methods for examining test data, but have also promoted a respectful, humanistic, and individualized approach to the patient in testing and treatment. The author asserts that Schafer's later seminal contributions to psychoanalysis had their origins in his early career as a psychologist applying psychoanalytic ideas to testing. © 2013 The Psychoanalytic Quarterly, Inc.

  10. Proton beam examination of glass - an analytical contribution for preventive conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mäder, M.; Neelmeijer, C.

    2004-11-01

    Historic glass objects belong to the valuable artistic and cultural heritage that suffers a progressive deterioration due to atmospheric effects. For predicting the chemical stability of a glass object showing no visible alteration or corrosion damage, the three ion beam techniques PIGE, PIXE and RBS have been combined in simultaneous measurements at the Rossendorf external proton beam. Non-destructive determination of the glass bulk composition despite a thin corrosion layer on the glass surface facilitate the identification of glasses which are sensitive to environmental degradation, hence require specific storage conditions. The complete analytical reproduction of the chemical composition of unaffected glass using the combination of PIGE and PIXE is also discussed.

  11. The contribution of office work to sedentary behaviour associated risk.

    PubMed

    Parry, Sharon; Straker, Leon

    2013-04-04

    Sedentary time has been found to be independently associated with poor health and mortality. Further, a greater proportion of the workforce is now employed in low activity occupations such as office work. To date, there is no research that specifically examines the contribution of sedentary work to overall sedentary exposure and thus risk. The purpose of the study was to determine the total exposure and exposure pattern for sedentary time, light activity and moderate/vigorous physical activity (MVPA) of office workers during work and non-work time. 50 office workers from Perth, Australia wore an Actical (Phillips, Respironics) accelerometer during waking hours for 7 days (in 2008-2009). Participants recorded wear time, waking hours, work hours and daily activities in an activity diary. Time in activity levels (as percentage of wear time) during work and non-work time were analysed using paired t-tests and Pearson's correlations. Sedentary time accounted for 81.8% of work hours (light activity 15.3% and MVPA 2.9%), which was significantly greater than sedentary time during non-work time (68.9% p < 0.001). Office workers experienced significantly more sustained sedentary time (bouts >30 minutes) and significantly less brief duration (0-10 minutes) light intensity activity during work hours compared to non-work time (p < 0.001). Further, office workers had fewer breaks in sedentary time during work hours compared to non-work time (p < 0.001). Office work is characterised by sustained sedentary time and contributes significantly to overall sedentary exposure of office workers.

  12. Analytic calculation of radiative-recoil corrections to muonium hyperfine splitting: Electron-line contribution

    SciTech Connect

    Eides, M.I.; Karshenboim, S.G.; Shelyuto, V.A. )

    1991-02-01

    The detailed account of analytic calculation of radiative-recoil correction to muonium hyperfine splitting, induced by electron-line radiative insertions, is presented. The consideration is performed in the framework of the effective two-particle formalism. A good deal of attention is paid to the problem of the divergence cancellation and the selection of graphs, relevant to radiative-recoil corrections. The analysis is greatly facilitated by use of the Fried-Yennie gauge for radiative photons. The obtained set of graphs turns out to be gauge-invariant and actual calculations are performed in the Feynman gauge. The main technical tricks, with the help of which we have effectively utilized the existence in the problem of the small parameter-mass ratio and managed to perform all calculations in the analytic form are described. The main intermediate results, as well as the final answer, {delta}E{sub rr} = ({alpha}({Zeta}{alpha})/{pi}{sup 2})(m/M)E{sub F}(6{zeta}(3) + 3{pi}{sup 2} In 2 + {pi}{sup 2}/2 + 17/8), are also presented.

  13. Genetic and environmental contributions to separation anxiety: a meta-analytic approach to twin data.

    PubMed

    Scaini, Simona; Ogliari, Anna; Eley, Thalia C; Zavos, Helena M S; Battaglia, Marco

    2012-09-01

    Separation anxiety disorder (SAD) and separation anxiety symptoms (SA) have been studied both epidemiologically and genetically; however, large between-studies discrepancies emerge relative to the role of genetic, shared-, and nonshared environmental influences on these conditions. Based upon available literature, 18 cohorts and 31,859 subjects belonging to twin samples in Europe, the United States, and Australia were included in three meta-analytic estimations of: the standardized variance components of etiological influences on SAD/SA, and on the effect of sex and rater. Meta-analytic estimations carried out on all cohorts showed that within-family (genetic 43% and shared environmental 17%) factors explain most of individual differences for SAD/SA. Meta-heritability estimates were higher among females (.52) than males (.26), whereas nonshared environmental effects were stronger for the latter (.74) than for the former (.41). When SAD/SA was rated by parents, the shared environmental influences were higher than those obtained with self-assessment instruments (.23 versus .05), but this may reflect an age difference between subsamples. A shared environmental effect is present and important in SAD/SA. Our results support at an etiological level the involvement of parents in treating SAD/SA in children, and the provision of specific strategies to parents to manage their own anxiety. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Rehabilitation Risk Management: Enabling Data Analytics with Quantified Self and Smart Home Data.

    PubMed

    Hamper, Andreas; Eigner, Isabella; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini; Bodendorf, Freimut

    2017-01-01

    A variety of acute and chronic diseases require rehabilitation at home after treatment. Outpatient rehabilitation is crucial for the quality of the medical outcome but is mainly performed without medical supervision. Non-Compliance can lead to severe health risks and readmission to the hospital. While the patient is closely monitored in the hospital, methods and technologies to identify risks at home have to be developed. We analyze state-of-the-art monitoring systems and technologies and show possibilities to transfer these technologies into rehabilitation monitoring. For this purpose, we analyze sensor technology from the field of Quantified Self and Smart Homes. The available sensor data from this consumer grade technology is summarized to give an overview of the possibilities for medical data analytics. Subsequently, we show a conceptual roadmap to transfer data analytics methods to sensor based rehabilitation risk management.

  15. Developing a University Contribution to Teacher Education: Creating an Analytical Space for Learning Narratives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanley, Chris; Brown, Tony

    2017-01-01

    What might a distinct university contribution to teacher education look like? This paper tracks a group of prospective teachers making the transition from undergraduate to teacher on a one-year school-based postgraduate course. The study employs a practitioner research methodological framework where teacher learning is understood as a process of…

  16. About Skinner and time: behavior-analytic contributions to research on animal timing.

    PubMed

    Lejeune, Helga; Richelle, Marc; Wearden, J H

    2006-01-01

    The article discusses two important influences of B. F. Skinner, and later workers in the behavior-analytic tradition, on the study of animal timing. The first influence is methodological, and is traced from the invention of schedules imposing temporal constraints or periodicities on animals in The Behavior of Organisms, through the rate differentiation procedures of Schedules of Reinforcement, to modern temporal psychophysics in animals. The second influence has been the development of accounts of animal timing that have tried to avoid reference to internal processes of a cognitive sort, in particular internal clock mechanisms. Skinner's early discussion of temporal control is first reviewed, and then three recent theories-Killeen & Fetterman's (1988) Behavioral Theory of Timing; Machado's (1997) Learning to Time; and Dragoi, Staddon, Palmer, & Buhusi's (2003) Adaptive Timer Model-are discussed and evaluated.

  17. Dealing with Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Quantification of Sources and Analytical Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkov, I.; Burmistrov, D.

    2002-05-01

    initial differences in model predictions were as high as thirteen orders of magnitude, and several iterations of scenario discussions and modeling were required before the various model predictions merged (final predictions ranged between one and three orders of magnitude). This study also shows that the contribution of the parameter uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty (as evaluated by probabilistic Monte-Carlo assessments for the FRUITPATH and FORESTPATH models) may be small as compared to model and `modeler' uncertainty. This talk will focus on FORESTPATH and FRUITPATH, the only two participating USA models. Both models are wholly probabilistic and thus can predict a probability distribution for radionuclide concentrations at any moment in time. Overall, the results of these analyses illustrate the importance of specific problem formulation and of the implementation of an analytic-deliberative process in risk characterization. The importance of model calibration and of the incorporation of site-specific information using Bayesian techniques will be also discussed.

  18. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to UK autumn flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí; Stott, Peter; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing[1]. Yet climate models typically used for studying the attribution problem do not resolve weather at scales causing damage[2]. Here we present the first multi-step study that attributes increasing risk of a damaging regional weather-related event to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The event was the UK flooding of October and November 2000, occurring during the wettest autumn in England & Wales since records began in 1766[3] and inundating several river catchments[4]. Nearly 10,000 properties were flooded and transport services and power supplies severely disrupted, with insured losses estimated at £1.3bn[5,6]. Though the floods were deemed a ‘wake up call' to the impacts of climate change[7], anthropogenic drivers cannot be blamed for this individual event: but they could be blamed for changing its risk[8,9]. Indeed, typically quoted thermodynamic arguments do suggest increased probability of precipitation extremes under anthropogenic warming[10]. But these arguments are too simple[11,12,13] to fully account for the complex weather[4,14] associated with the flooding. Instead we use a Probabilistic Event Attribution framework, to rigorously estimate the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to England & Wales Autumn 2000 flood risk. This involves comparing an unprecedented number of daily river runoff realisations for the region, under Autumn 2000 scenarios both with and without the emissions. These realisations are produced using publicly volunteered distributed computing power to generate several thousand seasonal forecast resolution climate model simulations[15,16] that are then fed into a precipitation-runoff model[17,18]. Autumn 2000 flooding is characterised by realisations exceeding the highest daily river runoff for that period, derived from the observational-based ERA-40 re-anaylsis[19]. We find that our

  19. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project.

  20. Recent Development in Big Data Analytics for Business Operations and Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Chan, Hing Kai; Yue, Xiaohang

    2017-01-01

    "Big data" is an emerging topic and has attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners in industrial systems engineering and cybernetics. Big data analytics would definitely lead to valuable knowledge for many organizations. Business operations and risk management can be a beneficiary as there are many data collection channels in the related industrial systems (e.g., wireless sensor networks, Internet-based systems, etc.). Big data research, however, is still in its infancy. Its focus is rather unclear and related studies are not well amalgamated. This paper aims to present the challenges and opportunities of big data analytics in this unique application domain. Technological development and advances for industrial-based business systems, reliability and security of industrial systems, and their operational risk management are examined. Important areas for future research are also discussed and revealed.

  1. Analytical and experimental characterization of nonlinear coned disk springs with focus on edge friction contribution to force-deflection hysteresis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastricola, Nicholas P.; Dreyer, Jason T.; Singh, Rajendra

    2017-07-01

    Even though coned disk springs are widely used given their highly customizable design features, the literature on both analytical and experimental characterizations is sparse. This article overcomes the void by focusing on midrange displacements for a commercially available coned disk springs with square edges. A refined single disk spring model, capable of having asymmetric friction conditions imposed on the disk spring edges, is developed to predict the load-deflection and quasi-static hysteresis characteristics while relaxing prior limiting assumptions. A new quasi-static experiment is then proposed to measure the nonlinear load-deflection characteristics under four principal interfacial edge configurations - two symmetric and two asymmetric. In particular, the asymmetric friction conditions afford the opportunity to assess the validity of the long standing theory concerning the assumed location of the disk spring cross section rotation point. The imposition of asymmetric friction conditions on the disk spring also allows for the direct quantification of the contribution of asymmetric friction conditions on the disk spring contact edges. New analytical and experimental studies show that there are significant edge friction contributions to the hysteresis exhibited by the disk spring. Finally, stiffness parameters from both theory and experiment are briefly evaluated over midrange displacements.

  2. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  3. Prioritization of chemicals in the aquatic environment based on risk assessment: analytical, modeling and regulatory perspective.

    PubMed

    Guillén, D; Ginebreda, A; Farré, M; Darbra, R M; Petrovic, M; Gros, M; Barceló, D

    2012-12-01

    The extensive and intensive use of chemicals in our developed, highly technological society includes more than 100,000 chemical substances. Significant scientific evidence has lead to the recognition that their improper use and release may result in undesirable and harmful side-effects on both the human and ecosystem health. To cope with them, appropriate risk assessment processes and related prioritization schemes have been developed in order to provide the necessary scientific support for regulatory procedures. In the present paper, two of the elements that constitute the core of risk assessment, namely occurrence and hazard effects, have been discussed. Recent advances in analytical chemistry (sample pre-treatment and instrumental equipment, etc.) have allowed for more comprehensive monitoring of environmental pollution reaching limits of detection up to sub ng L(-1). Alternative to analytical measurements, occurrence models can provide risk managers with a very interesting approach for estimating environmental concentrations from real or hypothetical scenarios. The most representative prioritization schemes used for issuing lists of concerning chemicals have also been examined and put in the context of existing environmental policies for protection strategies and regulations. Finally, new challenges in the field of risk-assessment have been outlined, including those posed by new materials (i.e., nanomaterials), transformation products, multi-chemical exposure, or extension of the risk assessment process to the whole ecosystem.

  4. Contribution of Spaceflight Environmental Factors to Vision Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zanello, Susana B.

    2011-01-01

    The risk of visual impairment and elevated intracranial pressure as a result of low-earth orbit microgravity exposure has directed our attention and research efforts to the eye. While the alterations observed in astronauts returning from long duration missions include vision and neuroanatomical changes observed by non-invasive methods, other effects and subsequent tissue responses at the molecular and cellular level can only be studied by accessing the tissue itself. As a result of this need, several studies are currently taking place within the Human and Health Countermeasures Element (HHC) that use animal models for eye research. The rodent eye has many similarities to the human eye, and both rats and mice have historically been used as models of human eye disease, aiding in the identification of the disease genes, elucidation of mechanisms of disease, as well as in the assessment of therapeutic treatments. These studies attempt to answer two central questions in the etiology of possible vision alterations in the environment of space exploration missions. The first is: what effects and response mechanisms take place in the different eye structures at the cellular and molecular level? The second question is directed to elucidate the contribution of the various environmental stressors (radiation, nutrition, fluid shift) to these effects. Collaborative approaches with internal and external investigators have allowed performing these studies in a most cost-effective fashion, providing preliminary data and laying the bases for testing further hypotheses in future and specifically designed animal experiments. From a study centered on the radioadaptive response in mice, we have learned that the retina responds to low and high dose gamma radiation by elevating antioxidant-related genes at early time points (4hrs) and that this response returns to control levels after 1 day post-irradiation. We are expanding this research with another collaborative study that investigates

  5. Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briggs, Charles Awoala

    For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most

  6. Novel predictive models for metabolic syndrome risk: a "big data" analytic approach.

    PubMed

    Steinberg, Gregory B; Church, Bruce W; McCall, Carol J; Scott, Adam B; Kalis, Brian P

    2014-06-01

    We applied a proprietary "big data" analytic platform--Reverse Engineering and Forward Simulation (REFS)--to dimensions of metabolic syndrome extracted from a large data set compiled from Aetna's databases for 1 large national customer. Our goals were to accurately predict subsequent risk of metabolic syndrome and its various factors on both a population and individual level. The study data set included demographic, medical claim, pharmacy claim, laboratory test, and biometric screening results for 36,944 individuals. The platform reverse-engineered functional models of systems from diverse and large data sources and provided a simulation framework for insight generation. The platform interrogated data sets from the results of 2 Comprehensive Metabolic Syndrome Screenings (CMSSs) as well as complete coverage records; complete data from medical claims, pharmacy claims, and lab results for 2010 and 2011; and responses to health risk assessment questions. The platform predicted subsequent risk of metabolic syndrome, both overall and by risk factor, on population and individual levels, with ROC/AUC varying from 0.80 to 0.88. We demonstrated that improving waist circumference and blood glucose yielded the largest benefits on subsequent risk and medical costs. We also showed that adherence to prescribed medications and, particularly, adherence to routine scheduled outpatient doctor visits, reduced subsequent risk. The platform generated individualized insights using available heterogeneous data within 3 months. The accuracy and short speed to insight with this type of analytic platform allowed Aetna to develop targeted cost-effective care management programs for individuals with or at risk for metabolic syndrome.

  7. [Spanish contribution to the creation of a European analytical database of trans-fatty acids].

    PubMed

    Cuadrado, C; Carbajal, A; Núñez, C; Ruiz-Roso, B; Moreiras, O

    1998-01-01

    Within the AAIR Program of the EU titled Evaluation of the Ingestion of Trans Fatty Acids (FA) and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in European countries (TRANSFAIR), which is being carried out in 16 countries with different alimentary habits, among which is our country, we have developed the following study. Based on the information derived from the last National Nutrition and Feeding Study (ENNA-3), we have made up a list of foods which make up 95% of the total ingestion of lipids, and it also includes those which although they are not included within this percentage, may have an especially high trans isomer content as a result of their processing. The foods selected for the analysis belong to different food groups: cereals, milk products, oils and fats, meats, various, and pre-cooked foods, until making up a total of 100 foods for each country. The central analysis laboratory is that of the Department of Human Nutrition, TNO Nutrition and Food Research, Zeist (The Netherlands). In each sample, in addition to the total lipids, one determines the saturated and unsaturated fatty acids, including the cis and trans isomers. The trans FA's measured were: C14:1 T9, C16:1 T9, C18:1 T, C18:2 T, C18:3 T + C20:1 T, C20:2 T11,14, and C22:1 T13. Of the samples analyzed, the highest percentages of trans FA with respect to the total FA corresponded to the following foods: French fries, pre-cooked and frozen croquettes sliced bread, margarine, cakes, and frozen mille feuilles dough of different industrial brands. The lowest percentages of trans FA's were found in refined vegetable oils (sunflower and olive), those used for deep frying, and those discarded in catering, as well as in some commercial brands of cookies and ice creams. Pure chocolate, different brands of sweetened powdered cocoa, and ready to make chocolate, did not contain and trans FA.

  8. Methodological Challenges in Research on Sexual Risk Behavior: I. Item Content, Scaling, and Data Analytical Options

    PubMed Central

    Schroder, Kerstin E. E.; Carey, Michael P.; Vanable, Peter A.

    2008-01-01

    Investigation of sexual behavior involves many challenges, including how to assess sexual behavior and how to analyze the resulting data. Sexual behavior can be assessed using absolute frequency measures (also known as “counts”) or with relative frequency measures (e.g., rating scales ranging from “never” to “always”). We discuss these two assessment approaches in the context of research on HIV risk behavior. We conclude that these two approaches yield non-redundant information and, more importantly, that only data yielding information about the absolute frequency of risk behavior have the potential to serve as valid indicators of HIV contraction risk. However, analyses of count data may be challenging due to non-normal distributions with many outliers. Therefore, we identify new and powerful data analytical solutions that have been developed recently to analyze count data, and discuss limitations of a commonly applied method (viz., ANCOVA using baseline scores as covariates). PMID:14534027

  9. Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

    PubMed

    Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

  10. Terracotta polychrome sculptures examined before and after their conservation work: contributions from non-invasive in situ analytical techniques.

    PubMed

    Colombo, C; Bevilacqua, F; Brambilla, L; Conti, C; Realini, M; Striova, J; Zerbi, G

    2011-08-01

    The potential of non-invasive in situ analytical techniques such as portable Raman, portable X-ray fluorescence, portable optical microscope and fibre optics reflectance spectroscopy has been shown studying painted layers of Renaissance terracotta polychrome sculptures belonging to the statuary of Santo Sepolcro Church in Milan. The results obtained allowed pointing out the contribution of these techniques to the compositional diagnostic, providing complete information, in some cases, better than micro-destructive techniques, on the kind of pigments used on the external painted layers. Moreover, a comparison with the results obtained before the last conservation work (2009) with micro-destructive techniques allowed ascertaining the removal of the external painted layers during the conservation operations.

  11. Dietary habits contributing to breast cancer risk among Iranian women.

    PubMed

    Mobarakeh, Zahra Sheikhi; Mirzaei, Khadijeh; Hatmi, Nadia; Ebrahimi, Mandana; Dabiran, Sohaila; Sotoudeh, Gity

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate demographic features, dietary habits, and some possible risk factors for being susceptible to breast cancer in Iranian women. A study of dietary habits and breast cancer was conducted among 53 Iranian women with histological confirmed disease and 40 matched controls. A dietary habits questionnaire was used to evaluate the pattern of selected food intakes. The risk of cancer was analyzed after adjustment for confounding factors. Age, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, educational status, parity, lactation, marital status, menopause, history of estrogen therapy, and family history of breast disease or cancer were assessed among participants. Special attention was given to the relationship between consumption of high fat meat, milk, yogurt and cheese as well use of frying oils for frying foods, use of olive/liquid oils for cooking, removing fat from meat and poultry, removing chicken skin and not use of mayonnaise as salad dressing and the risk of breast cancer. Moreover, salad, vegetable and fruit consumption, and eating outdoors owere investigated. Our results revealed significant lower education and higher BMI and waist circumference levels in patients with breast cancer. There was significantly increased breast cancer risk in overweight women in comparison with normal weight (OR=2.91, 95%CI 1.24 to 6.82). High intake of fat dairy products including milk and cheese was found to be a statistically significant factor for increasing breast cancer risk in models adjusting for age, BMI and education. Use of olive/liquid oils for cooking and avoidance of mayonnaise as salad dressing are related to lower risk of breast cancer. The frequency of vegetable and fruit consumption was significantly lower in patients with breast cancer compared to healthy women. Dietary habits might be risk factors for breast cancer among Iranian women. Adoption of a prudent diet could be an appropriate strategy for preventing breast

  12. [Do sleep abnormalities contribute to cardiovascular risk in bipolar disorders?].

    PubMed

    Micoulaud Franchi, J-A; Geoffroy, P-A; Cermolacce, M; Belzeaux, R; Adida, M; Azorin, J-M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this review is to summarize the state of knowledge concerning the relationship between cardiovascular risk, sleep abnormalities, and emotional reactivity in patients with bipolar disorder (BD). A scientific literature search of international articles was performed during August and September 2014 using the PubMed electronic database. We used the following MeSH terms : "Bipolar Disorders", "Cardiovascular risk", "Emotional reactivity", "Sleep apnea", and "Sleep disorder". Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a sleep disorder strongly associated with BD, which tends to fragment sleep. OSA is associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. Furthermore, emotional hyper-reactivity is favored by "hostility" temperaments, BD and sleep deprivation. The combination of these factors interacts and also results in an increased cardiovascular risk. Taken as a whole, both sleep disorders and emotional hyper-reactivity seem to increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases in BD. These data emphasize the central role of sleep abnormalities and emotional reactivity in the vulnerability of BD to express cardiovascular diseases. From a clinical point of view, these data also emphasize the importance of identifying and care for sleep abnormalities in BD in order to improve BD outcome. Copyright © 2014 L’Encéphale. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.. All rights reserved.

  13. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a decision analytic model for posteradication polio risk management.

    PubMed

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Kew, Olen M; Sutter, Roland W; Bruce Aylward, R; Watkins, Margaret; Gary, Howard; Alexander, James; Jafari, Hamid; Cochi, Stephen L; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2008-08-01

    Decision analytic modeling of polio risk management policies after eradication may help inform decisionmakers about the quantitative tradeoffs implied by various options. Given the significant dynamic complexity and uncertainty involving posteradication decisions, this article aims to clarify the structure of a decision analytic model developed to help characterize the risks, costs, and benefits of various options for polio risk management after eradication of wild polioviruses and analyze the implications of different sources of uncertainty. We provide an influence diagram of the model with a description of each component, explore the impact of different assumptions about model inputs, and present probability distributions of model outputs. The results show that choices made about surveillance, response, and containment for different income groups and immunization policies play a major role in the expected final costs and polio cases. While the overall policy implications of the model remain robust to the variations of assumptions and input uncertainty we considered, the analyses suggest the need for policymakers to carefully consider tradeoffs and for further studies to address the most important knowledge gaps.

  14. Factors contributing to intercity commercial bus drivers' crash involvement risk.

    PubMed

    Besharati, Mohammad Mehdi; Kashani, Ali Tavakoli

    2017-03-20

    The aim of this study was to examine the influence of demographic, environmental and occupational factors as well as behavioural characteristics of intercity bus drivers, on their crash involvement risk. A total number of 107 intercity bus drivers from Tehran, Iran were participated in the study. Logistic regression model suggested that smokers, those who drive during night to morning, less experienced drivers as well as those who operate older buses are more likely to be involved in crashes. In addition, one unit increase in the weekly driving hours might significantly increase the drivers' crash involvement risk. The model results also indicated that hazard monitoring, fatigue proneness and thrill seeking might be considered as other significant predictors of crash involvement risk. Implications of results are discussed.

  15. A framework for how environment contributes to cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Hochberg, Michael E; Noble, Robert J

    2017-02-01

    Evolutionary theory explains why metazoan species are largely protected against the negative fitness effects of cancers. Nevertheless, cancer is often observed at high incidence across a range of species. Although there are many challenges to quantifying cancer epidemiology and assessing its causes, we claim that most modern-day cancer in animals - and humans in particular - are due to environments deviating from central tendencies of distributions that have prevailed during cancer resistance evolution. Such novel environmental conditions may be natural and/or of anthropogenic origin, and may interface with cancer risk in numerous ways, broadly classifiable as those: increasing organism body size and/or life span, disrupting processes within the organism, and affecting germline. We argue that anthropogenic influences, in particular, explain much of the present-day cancer risk across life, including in humans. Based on a literature survey of animal species and a parameterised mathematical model for humans, we suggest that combined risks of all cancers in a population beyond c. 5% can be explained to some extent by the influence of novel environments. Our framework provides a basis for understanding how natural environmental variation and human activity impact cancer risk, with potential implications for species ecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  16. Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

  17. Two-pion low-energy contribution to the muon g -2 with improved precision from analyticity and unitarity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ananthanarayan, B.; Caprini, Irinel; Das, Diganta; Imsong, I. Sentitemsu

    2014-02-01

    The two-pion contribution from low energies to the muon magnetic moment anomaly, although small, has a large relative uncertainty since in this region the experimental data on the cross sections are neither sufficient nor precise enough. It is therefore of interest to see whether the precision can be improved by means of additional theoretical information on the pion electromagnetic form factor, which controls the leading-order contribution. In the present paper, we address this problem by exploiting analyticity and unitarity of the form factor in a parametrization-free approach that uses the phase in the elastic region, known with high precision from the Fermi-Watson theorem and Roy equations for ππ elastic scattering as input. The formalism also includes experimental measurements on the modulus in the region 0.65-0.70 GeV, taken from the most recent e+e-→π+π- experiments, and recent measurements of the form factor on the spacelike axis. By combining the results obtained with inputs from CMD2, SND, BABAR, and KLOE, we make the predictions aμππ ,LO[2mπ,0.30 GeV]=(0.553±0.004)×10-10 and aμππ ,LO[0.30 GeV ,0.63 GeV]=(133.083±0.837)×10-10. These are consistent with the other recent determinations and have slightly smaller errors.

  18. Genetic contribution to multiple sclerosis risk among Ashkenazi Jews.

    PubMed

    Khankhanian, Pouya; Matsushita, Takuya; Madireddy, Lohith; Lizée, Antoine; Din, Lennox; Moré, Jayaji M; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Hauser, Stephen L; Baranzini, Sergio E; Oksenberg, Jorge R

    2015-07-28

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease of the central nervous system, with a strong genetic component. Over 100 genetic loci have been implicated in susceptibility to MS in European populations, the most prominent being the 15:01 allele of the HLA-DRB1 gene. The prevalence of MS is high in European populations including those of Ashkenazi origin, and low in African and Asian populations including those of Jewish origin. Here we identified and extracted a total of 213 Ashkenazi MS cases and 546 ethnically matched healthy control individuals from two previous genome-wide case-control association analyses, and 72 trios (affected proband and two unaffected parents) from a previous genome-wide transmission disequilibrium association study, using genetic data to define Ashkenazi. We compared the pattern of genetic risk between Ashkenazi and non-Ashkenazi Europeans. We also sought to identify novel Ashkenazi-specific risk loci by performing association tests on the subset of Ashkenazi cases, controls, probands, and parents from each study. The HLA-DRB1*15:01 allele and the non-HLA risk alleles were present at relatively low frequencies among Ashkenazi and explained a smaller fraction of the population-level risk when compared to non-Ashkenazi Europeans. Alternative HLA susceptibility alleles were identified in an Ashkenazi-only association study, including HLA-A*68:02 and one or both genes in the HLA-B*38:01-HLA-C*12:03 haplotype. The genome-wide screen in Ashkenazi did not reveal any loci associated with MS risk. These results suggest that genetic susceptibility to MS in Ashkenazi Jews has not been as well established as that of non-Ashkenazi Europeans. This implies value in studying large well-characterized Ashkenazi populations to accelerate gene discovery in complex genetic diseases.

  19. Analytical evaluation of the X-ray scattering contribution to imaging degradation in grazing-incidence X-ray telescopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, D.

    2007-06-01

    Aims:The focusing performance of X-ray optics (conveniently expressed in terms of HEW, Half Energy Width) strongly depend on both mirrors deformations and photon scattering caused by the microroughness of reflecting surfaces. In particular, the contribution of X-ray Scattering (XRS) to the HEW of the optic is usually an increasing function H(E) of the photon energy E. Therefore, in future hard X-ray imaging telescopes of the future (SIMBOL-X, NeXT, Constellation-X, XEUS), the X-ray scattering could be the dominant problem since they will operate also in the hard X-ray band (i.e. beyond 10 keV). In order to ensure the imaging quality at all energies, clear requirements have to be established in terms of reflecting surfaces microroughness. Methods: Several methods were proposed in the past years to estimate the scattering contribution to the HEW, dealing with the surface microroughness expressed in terms of its Power Spectral Density (PSD), on the basis of the well-established theory of X-ray scattering from rough surfaces. We faced that problem on the basis on the same theory, but we tried a new approach: the direct, analytical translation of a given surface roughness PSD into a H(E) trend, and - vice versa - the direct translation of a H(E) requirement into a surface PSD. This PSD represents the maximum tolerable microroughness level in order to meet the H(E) requirement in the energy band of a given X-ray telescope. Results: We have thereby found a new, analytical and widely applicable formalism to compute the XRS contribution to the HEW from the surface PSD, provided that the PSD had been measured in a wide range of spatial frequencies. The inverse problem was also solved, allowing the immediate evaluation of the mirror surface PSD from a measured function H(E). The same formalism allows establishing the maximum allowed PSD of the mirror in order to fulfill a given H(E) requirement. Practical equations are firstly developed for the case of a single

  20. Prevalence of risk factors for stuttering among boys: analytical cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Cristiane Moço Canhetti; Nogueira, Paula Roberta

    2014-01-01

    There have been few studies on the risk factors for subgroups of stuttering. The aim of this study was to characterize the risk factors for developmental familial stuttering among boys who stutter and who do not stutter, such as disfluency types, associated quality and communication factors, emotional and physical stress, familial attitudes and personal reactions. Analytical cross-sectional study with a control group, performed at the Fluency Studies Laboratory of the Department of Speech and Hearing Disorders of a public university. The parents of 40 age-matched stuttering and non-stuttering boys took part in this study. The participants were divided into two groups: stuttering children (SC) and non-stuttering children (NSC), with ages between 6 years 0 months and 11 years 11 months. Initially, all of the participants underwent a fluency assessment and then data were gathered using the Protocol for the Risk of Developmental Stuttering. There were no differences in the physical stress distribution factors and personal reactions between the groups. Inappropriate familial attitudes were presented by 95% of the SC and 30% of the NSC. Four risk factors analyzed were not shown by the NSC, namely stuttering-like disfluency, quality factors, physical stress and emotional stresses. The findings suggest that the presence of stuttering-like disfluency, associated quality and communication factors, emotional stress and inappropriate family attitudes are important risk factors for familial developmental stuttering among boys.

  1. Sensory overresponsivity: prenatal risk factors and temperamental contributions.

    PubMed

    Keuler, Megan M; Schmidt, Nicole L; Van Hulle, Carol A; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Goldsmith, H Hill

    2011-09-01

    The study addresses risk factors and cause of pediatric sensory over-responsivity (SOR) in a large sample of twins. At age 2 years, (a) the association of temperamental traits with concurrent SOR; (b) the association of prenatal complications with SOR; (c) the association of having a male cotwin with female SOR; and (d) the common and unique genetic causes of temperament and SOR symptoms are examined. The sample included 1026 twin pairs (mean age = 2 years 2 months) from a population-based longitudinal study. Auditory and tactile SOR symptom domains were partially independent and thus were examined separately. Temperamental negative affect and fear were moderately correlated with auditory and tactile SOR symptoms. Prenatal complications significantly predicted tactile symptoms after controlling for child characteristics. In addition, females with a male cotwin showed greater SOR at age 2 years than same-sex female dizygotic twins, suggesting a possible risk associated with in utero testosterone exposure. Both auditory and tactile SOR domains were heritable. Bivariate genetic analyses showed that each SOR domain had a similar genetic relationship with fear and negative affect. The findings suggest partially nonoverlapping causes and risk factors for tactile versus auditory SOR and indicate that prenatal factors warrant further investigation.

  2. Sensory Over-Responsivity: Prenatal Risk Factors and Temperamental Contributions

    PubMed Central

    Keuler, Megan M.; Schmidt, Nicole L.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Goldsmith, H. Hill

    2011-01-01

    Objective The study addresses risk factors and etiology of pediatric sensory over-responsivity (SOR) in a large sample of twins. We examine, at age two years, (a) the association of temperamental traits with concurrent SOR; (b) the association of prenatal complications with SOR; (c) the association of having a male co-twin with female SOR; and (d) the common and unique genetic etiology of temperament and SOR symptoms. Method The sample included 1,026 twin pairs (mean age = 2 years 2 months) from a population-based longitudinal study. Auditory and tactile SOR symptom domains were partially independent and thus were examined separately. Results Temperamental negative affect and fear were moderately correlated with auditory and tactile SOR symptoms. Prenatal complications significantly predicted tactile symptoms after controlling for child characteristics. Additionally, females with a male co-twin showed greater SOR at age two than same-sex female dizygotic twins, suggesting a possible risk associated with in utero testosterone exposure. Both auditory and tactile SOR domains were heritable. Bivariate genetic analyses showed that each SOR domain had a similar genetic relationship with fear and negative affect. Conclusion The findings suggest partially non-overlapping etiologies and risk factors for tactile versus auditory SOR and indicate that prenatal factors warrant further investigation. PMID:21743351

  3. What is the Contribution of Genetics to Periodontal Risk?

    PubMed

    Loos, Bruno G; Papantonopoulos, Georgios; Jepsen, Søren; Laine, Marja L

    2015-10-01

    This review addresses the multicausal etiology of periodontitis, in which genetic factors play a role. The various proposed causes for periodontitis always work simultaneously, but the relative contribution of each of these varies from case to case. We are still at an early stage to identify the genes involved, in comparison with other chronic diseases. To date, the genetic variations firmly and repeatedly associated with periodontitis in some populations are found within the following genes: ANRIL, COX2, IL1, IL10, DEFB1, whereas many other proposed periodontitis candidate genes have not been firmly proven or replicated.

  4. Can Google Trends search queries contribute to risk diversification?

    PubMed Central

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2013-01-01

    Portfolio diversification and active risk management are essential parts of financial analysis which became even more crucial (and questioned) during and after the years of the Global Financial Crisis. We propose a novel approach to portfolio diversification using the information of searched items on Google Trends. The diversification is based on an idea that popularity of a stock measured by search queries is correlated with the stock riskiness. We penalize the popular stocks by assigning them lower portfolio weights and we bring forward the less popular, or peripheral, stocks to decrease the total riskiness of the portfolio. Our results indicate that such strategy dominates both the benchmark index and the uniformly weighted portfolio both in-sample and out-of-sample. PMID:24048448

  5. Contribution of Spaceflight Environmental Factors to Vision Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zanello, Susana

    2012-01-01

    The recognition of a risk of visual impairment and intracranial pressure increase as a result of spaceflight has directed our attention and research efforts to the eye. While the alterations observed in astronauts returning from long duration missions include reportable vision and neuroanatomical changes observed by non-invasive methods, other effects and subsequent tissue responses at the molecular and cellular level can only be studied by accessing the tissue itself. As a result of this need, several studies are currently taking place that use animal models for eye research within the HHC Element. The implementation of these studies represents a significant addition to the capabilities of the biomedical research laboratories within the SK3 branch at JSC.

  6. Can Google Trends search queries contribute to risk diversification?

    PubMed

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2013-01-01

    Portfolio diversification and active risk management are essential parts of financial analysis which became even more crucial (and questioned) during and after the years of the Global Financial Crisis. We propose a novel approach to portfolio diversification using the information of searched items on Google Trends. The diversification is based on an idea that popularity of a stock measured by search queries is correlated with the stock riskiness. We penalize the popular stocks by assigning them lower portfolio weights and we bring forward the less popular, or peripheral, stocks to decrease the total riskiness of the portfolio. Our results indicate that such strategy dominates both the benchmark index and the uniformly weighted portfolio both in-sample and out-of-sample.

  7. Synthesizing evidence on complex interventions: how meta-analytical, qualitative, and mixed-method approaches can contribute.

    PubMed

    Petticrew, Mark; Rehfuess, Eva; Noyes, Jane; Higgins, Julian P T; Mayhew, Alain; Pantoja, Tomas; Shemilt, Ian; Sowden, Amanda

    2013-11-01

    Although there is increasing interest in the evaluation of complex interventions, there is little guidance on how evidence from complex interventions may be reviewed and synthesized, and the relevance of the plethora of evidence synthesis methods to complexity is unclear. This article aims to explore how different meta-analytical approaches can be used to examine aspects of complexity; describe the contribution of various narrative, tabular, and graphical approaches to synthesis; and give an overview of the potential choice of selected qualitative and mixed-method evidence synthesis approaches. The methodological discussions presented here build on a 2-day workshop held in Montebello, Canada, in January 2012, involving methodological experts from the Campbell and Cochrane Collaborations and from other international review centers (Anderson L, Petticrew M, Chandler J, et al. systematic reviews of complex interventions. In press). These systematic review methodologists discussed the broad range of existing methods and considered the relevance of these methods to reviews of complex interventions. The evidence from primary studies of complex interventions may be qualitative or quantitative. There is a wide range of methodological options for reviewing and presenting this evidence. Specific contributions of statistical approaches include the use of meta-analysis, meta-regression, and Bayesian methods, whereas narrative summary approaches provide valuable precursors or alternatives to these. Qualitative and mixed-method approaches include thematic synthesis, framework synthesis, and realist synthesis. A suitable combination of these approaches allows synthesis of evidence for understanding complex interventions. Reviewers need to consider which aspects of complex interventions should be a focus of their review and what types of quantitative and/or qualitative studies they will be including, and this will inform their choice of review methods. These may range from

  8. Analytical Hierarchy Process modeling for malaria risk zones in Vadodara district, Gujarat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, B.; Joshi, J. P.

    2014-11-01

    Malaria epidemic is one of the complex spatial problems around the world. According to WHO, an estimated 6, 27, 000 deaths occurred due to malaria in 2012. In many developing nations with diverse ecological regions, it is still a large cause of human mortality. Owing to the incompleteness of epidemiological data and their spatial origin, the quantification of disease incidence burdening basic public health planning is a major constrain especially in developing countries. The present study focuses on the integrated Geospatial and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (AHP) technique to determine malaria risk zones. The study is conducted in Vadodara district, including 12 Taluka among which 4 Taluka are predominantly tribal. The influence of climatic and physical environmental factors viz., rainfall, hydro geomorphology; drainage, elevation, and land cover are used to score their share in the evaluation of malariogenic condition. This was synthesized on the basis of preference over each factor and the total weights of each data and data layer were computed and visualized. The district was divided into three viz., high, moderate and low risk zones .It was observed that a geographical area of 1885.2sq.km comprising 30.3% fall in high risk zone. The risk zones identified on the basis of these parameters and assigned weights shows a close resemblance with ground condition. As the API distribution for 2011overlaid corresponds to the risk zones identified. The study demonstrates the significance and prospect of integrating Geospatial tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process for malaria risk zones and dynamics of malaria transmission.

  9. Substantial contribution of extrinsic risk factors to cancer development | Office of Cancer Genomics

    Cancer.gov

    Recent research has highlighted a strong correlation between tissue-specific cancer risk and the lifetime number of tissue-specific stem-cell divisions. Whether such correlation implies a high unavoidable intrinsic cancer risk has become a key public health debate with the dissemination of the 'bad luck' hypothesis. Here we provide evidence that intrinsic risk factors contribute only modestly (less than ~10-30% of lifetime risk) to cancer development.

  10. Analytical and assay issues for use of cardiac troponin testing for risk stratification in primary care.

    PubMed

    Wu, Alan H B; Christenson, Robert H

    2013-08-01

    Cardiac troponin is the standard marker for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction and risk stratification of patients who present to an emergency department with signs and symptoms of acute cardiac ischemia. Over the past few years, the analytical sensitivity of assays for cardiac troponin has improved significantly to the point where a detectable amount of troponin can be measured in essentially all healthy subjects. Recent studies have shown that use of a highly sensitive troponin assays may provide value to traditional markers of primary disease risk for patients, i.e., for those who have no history of heart disease. There are barriers to the adoption of cardiac troponin for screening high risk cohorts such as the elderly, diabetics and perhaps even the asymptomatic population. Strategies used for the assignment of cutoff concentrations in acute care, i.e., the 99 th percentile, may not be appropriate for primary care as changes over baseline levels may provide more accurate information of risk than cross-sectional results. A review of biological variation has shown that cardiac troponin as a biomarker has low index of individuality, indicating that reference values are of little utility. Whether or not cardiac troponin can be released in reversible injury is a debate that could have significance for detecting minor myocardial injury. A major hurdle for use of troponin in primary care is the lack of assay standardization and nomenclature for the different generations of troponin assays. Standardization requires knowledge of what is released after cardiac injury and what the various cardiac troponin assays are measuring. Currently it is not clear if the cardiac troponin release after ischemic injury is identical to that in circulation of healthy individuals. This may affect the design of future assays and standardization approaches. There is potential that a marker of myocardial injury such as troponin can add to the value of existing indicators and biomarkers

  11. Flood Risk and Climate Change: The Contributions of Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brakenridge, R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kettner, A. J.; Cohen, S.; Syvitski, J. A.; Overeem, I.; de Groeve, T.

    2015-12-01

    Since the mid-1970s, satellite observation has gathered an exceptionally valuable but largely un-harvested record of flood inundation world-wide. Commencing in late 1999, the two MODIS sensors also obtained daily surveillance of all of the Earth's surface waters. These data are analogous to the record of earthquake seismicity provided by seismographic stations; they provide the only objective characterization of many extreme, damaging flood events. This information should be deployed to its maximum utility in defining areas of flood risk. In the developing nations, the remote sensing archive provides the immediate opportunity, without hydrological data infrastructure, to directly identify hazardous land areas. As well, satellite passive microwave radiometry, commencing with near-daily global coverage in 1998, has the ability to characterize at-a-site flood hydrographs. When combined with the satellite record of mapped inundation, this allows exceedance probabilities to be placed on observed inundation limits. The coupled data set can then be used to validate predictive flood modeling. As climate changes, flood statistics change. Yet hazard evaluation has for many decades proceeded using assumed stationarity of flood frequency distributions. New floods-of-record at any location thereby present a dilemma to policy makers and to hydrologists: immediately include the new extreme flood in the flow series, and thus increase the size of the regulatory floodplain, or use the pre-flood flow records to label the exceptional new event as, for example, "the 1000 yr flood". The remote sensing record also includes defended floodplains where levees have failed, sometimes even during relatively common floods. We can use the powerful observations provided by remote sensing to confront the old probability estimates directly: by arguing that the recent observed record of inundation from actual floods must take priority in guiding public policy.

  12. The Prioritization of Clinical Risk Factors of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Severity Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

    PubMed Central

    Maranate, Thaya; Pongpullponsak, Adisak; Ruttanaumpawan, Pimon

    2015-01-01

    Recently, there has been a problem of shortage of sleep laboratories that can accommodate the patients in a timely manner. Delayed diagnosis and treatment may lead to worse outcomes particularly in patients with severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). For this reason, the prioritization in polysomnography (PSG) queueing should be endorsed based on disease severity. To date, there have been conflicting data whether clinical information can predict OSA severity. The 1,042 suspected OSA patients underwent diagnostic PSG study at Siriraj Sleep Center during 2010-2011. A total of 113 variables were obtained from sleep questionnaires and anthropometric measurements. The 19 groups of clinical risk factors consisting of 42 variables were categorized into each OSA severity. This study aimed to array these factors by employing Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process approach based on normalized weight vector. The results revealed that the first rank of clinical risk factors in Severe, Moderate, Mild, and No OSA was nighttime symptoms. The overall sensitivity/specificity of the approach to these groups was 92.32%/91.76%, 89.52%/88.18%, 91.08%/84.58%, and 96.49%/81.23%, respectively. We propose that the urgent PSG appointment should include clinical risk factors of Severe OSA group. In addition, the screening for Mild from No OSA patients in sleep center setting using symptoms during sleep is also recommended (sensitivity = 87.12% and specificity = 72.22%). PMID:26221183

  13. Risk factor detection for heart disease by applying text analytics in electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Torii, Manabu; Fan, Jung-Wei; Yang, Wei-Li; Lee, Theodore; Wiley, Matthew T; Zisook, Daniel S; Huang, Yang

    2015-12-01

    In the United States, about 600,000 people die of heart disease every year. The annual cost of care services, medications, and lost productivity reportedly exceeds 108.9 billion dollars. Effective disease risk assessment is critical to prevention, care, and treatment planning. Recent advancements in text analytics have opened up new possibilities of using the rich information in electronic medical records (EMRs) to identify relevant risk factors. The 2014 i2b2/UTHealth Challenge brought together researchers and practitioners of clinical natural language processing (NLP) to tackle the identification of heart disease risk factors reported in EMRs. We participated in this track and developed an NLP system by leveraging existing tools and resources, both public and proprietary. Our system was a hybrid of several machine-learning and rule-based components. The system achieved an overall F1 score of 0.9185, with a recall of 0.9409 and a precision of 0.8972. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

    PubMed

    Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

    2003-12-01

    The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option.

  15. The Prioritization of Clinical Risk Factors of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Severity Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process.

    PubMed

    Maranate, Thaya; Pongpullponsak, Adisak; Ruttanaumpawan, Pimon

    2015-01-01

    Recently, there has been a problem of shortage of sleep laboratories that can accommodate the patients in a timely manner. Delayed diagnosis and treatment may lead to worse outcomes particularly in patients with severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). For this reason, the prioritization in polysomnography (PSG) queueing should be endorsed based on disease severity. To date, there have been conflicting data whether clinical information can predict OSA severity. The 1,042 suspected OSA patients underwent diagnostic PSG study at Siriraj Sleep Center during 2010-2011. A total of 113 variables were obtained from sleep questionnaires and anthropometric measurements. The 19 groups of clinical risk factors consisting of 42 variables were categorized into each OSA severity. This study aimed to array these factors by employing Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process approach based on normalized weight vector. The results revealed that the first rank of clinical risk factors in Severe, Moderate, Mild, and No OSA was nighttime symptoms. The overall sensitivity/specificity of the approach to these groups was 92.32%/91.76%, 89.52%/88.18%, 91.08%/84.58%, and 96.49%/81.23%, respectively. We propose that the urgent PSG appointment should include clinical risk factors of Severe OSA group. In addition, the screening for Mild from No OSA patients in sleep center setting using symptoms during sleep is also recommended (sensitivity = 87.12% and specificity = 72.22%).

  16. The public health risks of media violence: a meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Kilburn, John

    2009-05-01

    To conduct a meta-analytic review of studies that examine the impact of violent media on aggressive behavior and to determine whether this effect could be explained through methodological problems inherent in this research field. A detailed literature search identified peer-reviewed articles addressing media violence effects. Effect sizes were calculated for all studies. Effect sizes were adjusted for observed publication bias. Publication bias was a problem for studies of aggressive behavior, and methodological problems such as the use of poor aggression measures inflated effect size. Once corrected for publication bias, studies of media violence effects provided little support for the hypothesis that media violence is associated with higher aggression. The corrected overall effect size for all studies was r = .08. Results from the current analysis do not support the conclusion that media violence leads to aggressive behavior. It cannot be concluded at this time that media violence presents a significant public health risk.

  17. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    PubMed

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  18. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays: From improved analytical performance to enhanced risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Kozinski, Marek; Krintus, Magdalena; Kubica, Jacek; Sypniewska, Grazyna

    2017-05-01

    Implementation of cardiac troponin (cTn) assays has revolutionized the diagnosis, risk stratification, triage and management of patients with suspected myocardial infarction (MI). The Universal Definition of MI brought about a shift in the diagnostics of MI, from an approach primarily based on electrocardiography (ECG) to one primarily based on biomarkers. Currently, detection of a rise and/or fall in concentration or activity of myocardial necrosis biomarkers, preferentially cTns, with at least one value above the 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL), is the essential component for the diagnosis of MI. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) assays with their superior analytical performance were designed to further facilitate clinical decision making. The ability of hs-cTn assays to detect measurable cTn concentrations in at least 50% of healthy individuals, along with their improved precision (expressed as coefficient of variation ≤10% at the 99th percentile URL) associated with increased recognition of changing values, leads to enhanced risk stratification of patients with suspected MI, and also enables them to be used as prognostic tools potentially useful in other patient subsets. In this comprehensive review, we aim to integrate updated laboratory and clinical knowledge regarding hs-cTn assays in order to promote their optimal use in daily practice. We primarily focus on the role of hs-cTn assays in patients with suspected MI, discussing recommended diagnostic algorithms and result interpretation. Emphasis is also placed on the release of cTns following myocardial injury, the characteristics of antibodies used in available cTn immunoassays, and analytical performance of hs-cTn assays. In this paper, we also review potential challenges related to the selection of a healthy reference population in determining 99th percentile values, biological variation of hs-cTns, inequality between hs-cTn assays, and outline the current status of c

  19. Adjustment of Children Born to Teenage Mothers: The Contribution of Risk and Protective Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dubow, Eric F.; Luster, Tom

    1990-01-01

    Examined contribution of risk and protective factors in adjustment of 721 children, age 8-15, born to teenage mothers. Results showed that exposure to increasing number of risk factors (poverty, urban residence, mother's self-esteem) was associated with greater vulnerability to adjustment problems, while protective factors (intelligence,…

  20. The use of meta-analytical tools in risk assessment for food safety.

    PubMed

    Gonzales-Barron, Ursula; Butler, Francis

    2011-06-01

    This communication deals with the use of meta-analysis as a valuable tool for the synthesis of food safety research, and in quantitative risk assessment modelling. A common methodology for the conduction of meta-analysis (i.e., systematic review and data extraction, parameterisation of effect size, estimation of overall effect size, assessment of heterogeneity, and presentation of results) is explained by reviewing two meta-analyses derived from separate sets of primary studies of Salmonella in pork. Integrating different primary studies, the first meta-analysis elucidated for the first time a relationship between the proportion of Salmonella-carrier slaughter pigs entering the slaughter lines and the resulting proportion of contaminated carcasses at the point of evisceration; finding that the individual studies on their own could not reveal. On the other hand, the second application showed that meta-analysis can be used to estimate the overall effect of a critical process stage (chilling) on the incidence of the pathogen under study. The derivation of a relationship between variables and a probabilistic distribution is illustrations of the valuable quantitative information synthesised by the meta-analytical tools, which can be incorporated in risk assessment modelling. Strengths and weaknesses of meta-analysis within the context of food safety are also discussed.

  1. Analytical tool for risk assessment of landscape and urban planning: Spatial development impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehak, David; Senovsky, Michail; Balog, Karol; Dvorak, Jiri

    2011-06-01

    This article covers the issue of preventive protection of population, technical infrastructure, and the environment against adverse impacts of careless spatial development. In the first section, we describe the relationship between sustainable development and spatial development. This discussion is followed by a review of the current state of spatial development security, primarily at a national level in the Czech Republic. The remainder of the paper features our original contribution which is a tool for risk assessment in landscape and urban planning, the Spatial Development Impact Assessment (SDIA) tool. We briefly review the most significant semi-quantitative methods of risk analysis that were used as a starting point in implementing the tool, and we discuss several of SDIA's salient features, namely, the assessment process algorithm, the catalogue of hazard and asset groups, and the spatial development impact matrix.

  2. Monitoring environmental risk in fibrous minerals in New Caledonia: a comparison between different analytical methods.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petriglieri, Jasmine Rita; Laporte-Magoni, Christine; Salvioli-Mariani, Emma; Gunkel-Grillon, Peggy; Tribaudino, Mario; Mantovani, Luciana; Bersani, Danilo; Lottici, Pier Paolo; Tomatis, Maura

    2017-04-01

    The New Caledonia is covered by ultrabasic units for more than a third of its surface, and it is one of the largest world producers of nickel ore. Mining activity, focused on extraction from lateritic ore deposits formed by the alteration of ultramafic rocks, must deal with the natural occurrence of asbestos and fibrous minerals. Almost all outcrops of geological units in open mines contain serpentine and amphibole, also as asbestos varieties (Lahondère, 2007). Owing to humid tropical to sub-tropical conditions, weathering processes and supergene mineralization are one of the main responsible for fibrogenesis of asbestos minerals. The presence of fibrous minerals in mining and storage sites requires attention due to public health problems and for the safety of the operators. In this context, the evaluation of risk and health hazard to prevent the effects due to exposition is closely linked to the formation, alteration and release of fibers into the environment. It has been demonstrated that different fibrous minerals have different toxicity (Fubini & Otero-Arean, 1999; Fubini & Fenoglio, 2007). An analytical strategy to discriminate and characterize, with certainty, the different varieties of the asbestiform phases is required to the establishment of an environmental monitoring system. We have therefore analyzed by different methods a set of about fifty asbestos sampled for mapping environmental risk in fibrous minerals in New Caledonia. The samples contain serpentines (chrysotile, antigorite) and amphibole (tremolite), all fibrous and have been sorted by their different degree of alteration. Data obtained with the more traditional mineralogical and petrological analytical techniques - such as optical microscopy, X-ray diffraction, secondary electron microscopy (SEM-EDS), and transmission electron microscopy - have been completed by the employment of more specialized tools as phase contrast microscopy (PCM), Raman spectroscopy, and thermal analysis (DTA). Moreover

  3. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21st century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change. PMID:26867481

  4. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    PubMed

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-02-12

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

  5. Quantifying the contributions of behavioral and biological risk factors to socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease incidence: the MORGEN study.

    PubMed

    Kershaw, Kiarri N; Droomers, Mariël; Robinson, Whitney R; Carnethon, Mercedes R; Daviglus, Martha L; Monique Verschuren, W M

    2013-10-01

    Quantifying the impact of different modifiable behavioral and biological risk factors on socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) may help inform targeted, population-specific strategies to reduce the unequal distribution of the disease. Previous studies have used analytic approaches that limit our ability to disentangle the relative contributions of these risk factors to CHD disparities. The goal of this study was to assess mediation of the effect of low education on incident CHD by multiple risk factors simultaneously. Analyses are based on 15,067 participants of the Dutch Monitoring Project on Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases aged 20-65 years examined 1994-1997 and followed for events until January 1, 2008. Path analysis was used to quantify and test mediation of the low education-CHD association by behavioral (current cigarette smoking, heavy alcohol use, poor diet, and physical inactivity) and biological (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia) risk factors. Behavioral and biological risk factors accounted for 56.6 % (95 % CI 42.6-70.8 %) of the low education-incident CHD association. Smoking was the strongest mediator, accounting for 27.3 % (95 % CI 17.7-37.4 %) of the association, followed by obesity (10.2 %; 95 % CI 4.5-16.1 %), physical inactivity (6.3 %; 95 % CI 2.7-10.0 %), and hypertension (5.3 %; 95 % CI: 2.8-8.0 %). In summary, in a Dutch cohort, the majority of the relationship between low education and incident CHD was mediated by traditional behavioral and biological risk factors. Addressing barriers to smoking cessation, blood pressure and weight management, and physical activity may be the most effective approaches to eliminating socioeconomic inequalities in CHD.

  6. Quantifying the contributions of behavioral and biological risk factors to socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease incidence: The MORGEN study

    PubMed Central

    Kershaw, Kiarri N.; Droomers, Mariël; Robinson, Whitney R.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Verschuren, W.M. Monique

    2013-01-01

    Quantifying the impact of different modifiable behavioral and biological risk factors on socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) may help inform targeted, population-specific strategies to reduce the unequal distribution of the disease. Previous studies have used analytic approaches that limit our ability to disentangle the relative contributions of these risk factors to CHD disparities. The goal of this study was to assess mediation of the effect of low education on incident CHD by multiple risk factors simultaneously. Analyses are based on 15,067 participants of the Dutch Monitoring Project on Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases aged 20–65 years examined 1994–1997 and followed for events until January 1, 2008. Path analysis was used to quantify and test mediation of the low education-CHD association by behavioral (current cigarette smoking, heavy alcohol use, poor diet, and physical inactivity) and biological (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia) risk factors. Behavioral and biological risk factors accounted for 56.6% (95% CI: 42.6%–70.8%) of the low education-incident CHD association. Smoking was the strongest mediator, accounting for 27.3% (95% CI: 17.7%–37.4%) of the association, followed by obesity (10.2%; 95% CI: 4.5%–16.1%), physical inactivity (6.3%; 95% CI: 2.7%–10.0%), and hypertension (5.3%; 95% CI: 2.8%–8.0%). In summary, in a Dutch cohort, the majority of the relationship between low education and incident CHD was mediated by traditional behavioral and biological risk factors. Addressing barriers to smoking cessation, blood pressure and weight management, and physical activity may be the most effective approaches to eliminating socioeconomic inequalities in CHD. PMID:24037117

  7. The return periods and risk assessment of severe dust storms in Inner Mongolia with consideration of the main contributing factors.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng; Ji, Zhonghui

    2012-09-01

    This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I (SDS)) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I (SDS)) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I (SDS) was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk.

  8. Jung in education: a review of historical and contemporary contributions from analytical psychology to the field of education.

    PubMed

    Gitz-Johansen, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    The available literature on the influence of Jungian thought on the theory and practice of education leaves the impression that although the work of Carl Jung and analytical psychology have much to offer the field of education, the Jungian influence has so far been slight. While this has certainly been true, the last decade or so has nevertheless witnessed an increased scholarly interest in exploring how analytical psychology may inform and inspire the field of education. As an explanation for this burgeoning interest in Jung, several of the contemporary contributors mention that analytical psychology has the potential of functioning as a counterbalance to the tendencies in Western societies to focus on measurable learning targets and increasingly standardized measures of teaching and assessment. It seems pertinent then to gain an overview of how analytical psychology has so far inspired the field of education and how it may fruitfully continue do so in the future. To this end this paper is structured chronologically, starting with the different phases of Jung's own engagement with the field of education and ending with later post-Jungian applications of his concepts and ideas to education. © 2016, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

  9. Does Erectile Dysfunction Contribute to Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction beyond the Framingham Risk Score?

    PubMed Central

    Araujo, Andre B.; Hall, Susan A.; Ganz, Peter; Chiu, Gretchen R.; Rosen, Raymond C.; Kupelian, Varant; Travison, Thomas G.; McKinlay, John B.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To determine whether erectile dysfunction (ED) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) beyond traditional risk factors. Background ED and CVD share pathophysiological mechanisms and often co-occur. It is unknown whether ED improves the prediction of CVD beyond traditional risk factors. Methods This was a prospective, population-based study of 1,709 men (of 3,258 eligible) aged 40–70 years. ED was measured by self-report. Subjects were followed for CVD for an average follow-up of 11.7 years. The association between ED and CVD was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The discriminatory capability of ED was examined using c statistics. The reclassification of CVD risk associated with ED was assessed using a method that quantifies net reclassification improvement. Results 1,057 men with complete risk factor data who were free of CVD and diabetes at baseline were included. During follow-up, 261 new cases of CVD occurred. ED was associated with CVD incidence controlling for age (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.42 (95% Confidence Interval (CI)): 1.05, 1.90), age and traditional CVD risk factors (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.90), as well as age and Framingham risk score (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.04–1.88). Despite these significant findings, ED did not significantly improve the prediction of CVD incidence beyond traditional risk factors. Conclusions Independent of established CVD risk factors, ED is significantly associated with increased CVD incidence. Nonetheless, ED does not improve the prediction of who will and will not develop CVD beyond that offered by traditional risk factors. PMID:20117441

  10. The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O.; Woods, Scott W.; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R.; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk

  11. Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

    PubMed

    Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

    2015-01-01

    Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

  12. Socioeconomic inequalities in coronary heart disease risk in older age: contribution of established and novel coronary risk factors

    PubMed Central

    RAMSAY, S E; MORRIS, R W; WHINCUP, P H; PAPACOSTA, O; RUMLEY, A; LENNON, L; LOWE, G; WANNAMETHEE, S G

    2009-01-01

    Background:Evidence on socioeconomic inequalities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and their pathways in the elderly is limited. Little is also known about the contributions that novel coronary risk factors (particularly inflammatory/hemostatic markers) make to socioeconomic inequalities in CHD. Objectives:To examine the extent of socioeconomic inequalities in CHD in older age, and the contributions (relative and absolute) of established and novel coronary risk factors. Methods:A population-based cohort of 3761 British men aged 60–79 years was followed up for 6.5 years for CHD mortality and incidence (fatal and non-fatal). Social class was based on longest-held occupation recorded at 40–59 years. Results:There was a graded relationship between social class and CHD incidence. The hazard ratio for CHD incidence comparing social class V (unskilled workers) with social class I (professionals) was 2.70 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37–5.35; P-value for trend = 0.008]. This was reduced to 2.14 (95% CI 1.06–4.33; P-value for trend = 0.11) after adjustment for behavioral factors (cigarette smoking, physical activity, body mass index, and alcohol consumption), which explained 38% of the relative risk gradient (41% of absolute risk). Additional adjustment for inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and von Willebrand factor) explained 55% of the relative risk gradient (59% of absolute risk). Blood pressure and lipids made little difference to these estimates; results were similar for CHD mortality. Conclusions:Socioeconomic inequalities in CHD persist in the elderly and are at least partly explained by behavioral risk factors; novel (inflammatory) coronary risk markers made some further contribution. Reducing inequalities in behavioral factors (especially cigarette smoking) could reduce these social inequalities by at least one-third. PMID:20015318

  13. Little contribution of conventional factors in an algorithm to predicting death risk in Turkish adults.

    PubMed

    Onat, Altan; Can, Günay; Ademoğlu, Evin; Kaya, Adnan; Tusun, Eyyup; Ural, Dilek

    2017-03-01

    Determinants of risk of death are highly relevant for the management strategy of individuals. We aimed to determine an algorithm for predicting risk of death in Turkish adults who have a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Nine-year risk of death was estimated in 3348 middle-aged adults, followed over 8.81±4.2years. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict risk of death. Discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. Death occurred in 565 subjects. In multivariable analysis, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol levels were not predictive in either sex; in women, current smoking was also not predictive. Age, presence of diabetes, systolic blood pressure ≥160mmHg and low physical activity were predictors in both sexes, beyond smoking status in men. Exclusion of coronary disease at baseline did not change risk estimates materially. Using an algorithm of the stated 7 variables showed an 11- to 18-fold spread in the absolute risk of dying among individuals in the highest than in the lowest of 4 risk score categories. C-statistics of the model using age alone was 0.790 in men, 0.808 in women (p<0.001 each), while the incorporation of 6 conventional risk factors contributed to C-index was >0.020 in males and 0.009 in females. In a middle-aged population with prevalent MetS, serum lipoproteins and, in women, smoking status, were not relevant for the risk of death. The contribution of conventional risk factors beyond age to estimating risk of death was modest among Turkish men, and little in women in whom autoimmune activation is operative. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Algorithm for predicting CHD death risk in Turkish adults: conventional factors contribute only moderately in women

    PubMed Central

    Onat, Altan; Can, Günay; Kaya, Ayşem; Keskin, Muhammed; Hayıroğlu, Mert İ.; Yüksel, Hüsniye

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To assist the management strategy of individuals, we determined an algorithm for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) death in Turkish adults with a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Methods: The risk of CHD death was estimated in 3054 middle-aged adults, followed over 9.08±4.2 years. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict risk. Discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. Results: CHD death was identified in 233 subjects. In multivariable analysis, the serum high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) level was not predictive in men and the non-HDL-C level was not predictive in women. Age, presence of diabetes, systolic blood pressure ≥160 mm Hg, smoking habit, and low physical activity were predictors in both sexes. The exclusion of coronary disease at baseline did not change the risk estimates materially. Using an algorithm of the 7 stated variables, individuals in the highest category of risk score showed a 19- to 50-fold higher spread in the absolute risk of death from CHD than those in the second lowest category. C-index of the model using age alone was as high as 0.774 in men and 0.836 in women (p<0.001 each), while the incorporation of 6 conventional risk factors contributed to a C-index of 0.058 in males and 0.042 in females. Conclusion: In a middle-aged population with prevalent MetS, men disclosed anticipated risk parameters (except for high HDL-C levels) as determinants of the risk of CHD death. On the other hand, serum non-HDL-C levels and moderate systolic hypertension were not relevant in women. The moderate contribution of conventional risk factors (beyond age) to the estimation of the risk of CHD death in women is consistent with the operation of autoimmune activation. PMID:28315569

  15. Early Alert of Academically At-Risk Students: An Open Source Analytics Initiative

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jayaprakash, Sandeep M.; Moody, Erik W.; Lauría, Eitel J. M.; Regan, James R.; Baron, Joshua D.

    2014-01-01

    The Open Academic Analytics Initiative (OAAI) is a collaborative, multi-year grant program aimed at researching issues related to the scaling up of learning analytics technologies and solutions across all of higher education. The paper describes the goals and objectives of the OAAI, depicts the process and challenges of collecting, organizing and…

  16. Benefits, efforts and risks of participants in landscape co-management: an analytical framework and results from two case studies in Austria.

    PubMed

    Enengel, Barbara; Penker, Marianne; Muhar, Andreas; Williams, Rachael

    2011-04-01

    Participatory processes in general and also in relation to managing landscape issues are gathering importance mostly due to arguments surrounding legitimacy and effectiveness in decision-making. The main aim of this research, based on a transaction costs perspective, is to present an integrated analytical framework in order to determine individual efforts (time, money), benefits and risks of participants in landscape co-management processes. Furthermore a reflection on the analytical approach developed and arising lessons to be learned for landscape co-management are presented. In the analytical framework benefit-components comprise of factors such as 'contributing to landscape maintenance/development and nature protection', 'representing one's interest group', 'co-deciding on relevant topics', 'providing and broadening one's knowledge' and 'building networks'. The risks of participation are related to a lack of information and agreements, missing support and actual decision-making power. The analytical framework is applied to two case studies in Austria: an EU LIFE-Nature project and a Cultural Landscape Project of the Provincial Government of Lower Austria. Analysis of the effort-benefit-relations provides an indication for a more effective design of co-management. Although the processes are rated as quite adequate, there is a low willingness of participants to commit additional time to co-management processes. In contrast to the Cultural Landscape Project, in the LIFE-Nature project, professionally involved persons participate next to partly and full volunteers. These uneven conditions of participation and an unfair distribution of transaction costs, jeopardize the promising chances co-management bears for landscape governance. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Büchele, B.; Kreibich, H.; Kron, A.; Thieken, A.; Ihringer, J.; Oberle, P.; Merz, B.; Nestmann, F.

    2006-06-01

    Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  18. Managing Learner Contributions in the Adult ESL Classroom: A Conversation Analytic and Ethnographic Examination of Teacher Practices and Cognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fagan, Drew Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Although contemporary second language learning scholars assert that teacher management of learner contributions in classroom interaction is key to promoting learning opportunities, research has yet to make explicit teachers' real-time management practices. Studies on classroom interaction have illuminated how learner contributions are elicited via…

  19. Contributing Factors to High-Risk Sexual Behaviors among Iranian Adolescent Girls: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Alimoradi, Zainab; Kariman, Nourossadat; Simbar, Masoumeh; Ahmadi, Fazlollah

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Adolescence is a period of overwhelming changes and challenges, which expose the adolescents to high-risk behaviors. Risky sexual relationship is one of these behaviors that entails physical risks and psychosocial harms. Various factors have been recognized to shape sexual behaviors in adolescents. This paper is an attempt to investigate the factors contributing to high-risk sexual behaviors in Iranian adolescent girls. Methods: A literature review of the research published by Iranian authors, in Farsi or English language in local and foreign journals, was conducted using PubMed, Science Direct, Scopus, Scientific Information Database (SID), IranMedex, IranDoc, and Google Scholar. The search in each database included all the years covered at that time using keywords such as “sexual, adolescents, and Iran”, and continued using other keywords such as “sexual behavior, high-risk behavior, sexual risk and reproductive behavior” individually and in combination Results: Sixteen published articles were identified. Factors contributing to high-risk sexual behaviors in girls can be divided into four general groups including personal, family, peer, school and community. Conclusion: Regarding the identified risk and protective factors, appropriate individual, family and school-based interventions can be designed and implemented to strengthen protective factors. While individual and family factors are considered more in research, factors related to peers, school and community have received less attention. Since social values, beliefs and norms are important factors in formation of sexual behaviors, further research regarding these factors is suggested. PMID:28097173

  20. Preeclampsia and hypertensive disease in pregnancy: their contributions to cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Valdiviezo, Carolina; Garovic, Vesna D; Ouyang, Pamela

    2012-03-01

    More women than men die each year of cardiovascular disease, which remains the leading cause of death in the United States. Sex-specific factors, including pregnancy-related disorders, should be considered when assessing cardiovascular (CV) risk in women. Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy have been associated with CV risk later in life and may identify women in whom earlier primary prevention may reduce their risk. This article reviews the physiologic changes in blood pressure during pregnancy, current definitions of hypertensive diseases of pregnancy and preeclampsia, and postulated pathophysiologic mechanisms leading to preeclampsia that might contribute to later CV risk. Also summarized are studies providing evidence on the association between hypertensive diseases of pregnancy and future CV risk.

  1. Patterns of Therapist Variability: Therapist Effects and the Contribution of Patient Severity and Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saxon, David; Barkham, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the size of therapist effects using multilevel modeling (MLM), to compare the outcomes of therapists identified as above and below average, and to consider how key variables--in particular patient severity and risk and therapist caseload--contribute to therapist variability and outcomes. Method: We used a large…

  2. Patterns of Therapist Variability: Therapist Effects and the Contribution of Patient Severity and Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saxon, David; Barkham, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the size of therapist effects using multilevel modeling (MLM), to compare the outcomes of therapists identified as above and below average, and to consider how key variables--in particular patient severity and risk and therapist caseload--contribute to therapist variability and outcomes. Method: We used a large…

  3. Contribution of Established Stroke Risk Factors to the Burden of Stroke in Young Adults.

    PubMed

    Aigner, Annette; Grittner, Ulrike; Rolfs, Arndt; Norrving, Bo; Siegerink, Bob; Busch, Markus A

    2017-07-01

    As stroke in young adults is assumed to have different etiologies and risk factors than in older populations, the aim of this study was to examine the contribution of established potentially modifiable cardiovascular risk factors to the burden of stroke in young adults. A German nationwide case-control study based on patients enrolled in the SIFAP1 study (Stroke In Young Fabry Patients) 2007 to 2010 and controls from the population-based GEDA study (German Health Update) 2009 to 2010 was performed. Cases were 2125 consecutive patients aged 18 to 55 years with acute first-ever stroke from 26 clinical stroke centers; controls (age- and sex-matched, n=8500, without previous stroke) were from a nationwide community sample. Adjusted population-attributable risks of 8 risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, smoking, heavy episodic alcohol consumption, low physical activity, and obesity) and their combinations for all stroke, ischemic stroke, and primary intracerebral hemorrhage were calculated. Low physical activity and hypertension were the most important risk factors, accounting for 59.7% (95% confidence interval, 56.3-63.2) and 27.1% (95% confidence interval, 23.6-30.6) of all strokes, respectively. All 8 risk factors combined explained 78.9% (95% confidence interval, 76.3-81.4) of all strokes. Population-attributable risks of all risk factors were similar for all ischemic stroke subtypes. Population-attributable risks of most risk factors were higher in older age groups and in men. Modifiable risk factors previously established in older populations also account for a large part of stroke in younger adults, with 4 risk factors explaining almost 80% of stroke risk. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00414583. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  4. [Contribution of epidemiology to etiological research in psychiatry: from risk factors to risk mechanisms].

    PubMed

    Fombonne, E

    1993-01-01

    Over the last 25 years, the burgeoning of psychiatric epidemiology has generated a considerable knowledge base on the prevalence and incidence of psychiatric disorders. For most disorders, risk factor research has also led to the identification of vulnerability factors in the genetic, biological, psychological and social arenas. However, the delineation of psychopathological mechanisms requires a better understanding of the developmental connexions and sequences of intervention of the postulated risk factors. Similarly, psychopathological models should benefit from the study of protective influences and processes. The importance of longitudinal approaches to the study of causation in psychopathology is emphasized. While future research endeavors need to be theory-driven and to rely on more sophisticated measurement strategies, etiological research in psychiatry will continue to benefit from the range of research methods provided by epidemiology.

  5. The relative contribution of co-infection to focal infection risk in children.

    PubMed

    Lello, Joanne; Knopp, Stefanie; Mohammed, Khalfan A; Khamis, I Simba; Utzinger, Jürg; Viney, Mark E

    2013-03-07

    Co-infection is ubiquitous in people in the developing world but little is known regarding the potential for one parasite to act as a risk factor for another. Using generalized linear mixed modelling approaches applied to data from school-aged children from Zanzibar, Tanzania, we determined the strength of association between four focal infections (i.e. Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, hookworm and self-reported fever, the latter used as a proxy for viral, bacterial or protozoal infections) and the prevalence or intensity of each of the helminth infections. We compared these potential co-infections with additional risk factors, specifically, host sex and age, socioeconomic status and physical environment, and determined what the relative contribution of each risk factor was. We found that the risk of infection with all four focal infections was strongly associated with at least one other infection, and that this was frequently dependent on the intensity of that other infection. In comparison, no other incorporated risk factor was associated with all focal infections. Successful control of infectious diseases requires identification of infection risk factors. This study demonstrates that co-infection is likely to be one of these principal risk factors and should therefore be given greater consideration when designing disease-control strategies. Future work should also incorporate other potential risk factors, including host genetics which were not available in this study and, ideally, assess the risks via experimental manipulation.

  6. Safety analytics for integrating crash frequency and real-time risk modeling for expressways.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

    2017-07-01

    To find crash contributing factors, there have been numerous crash frequency and real-time safety studies, but such studies have been conducted independently. Until this point, no researcher has simultaneously analyzed crash frequency and real-time crash risk to test whether integrating them could better explain crash occurrence. Therefore, this study aims at integrating crash frequency and real-time safety analyses using expressway data. A Bayesian integrated model and a non-integrated model were built: the integrated model linked the crash frequency and the real-time models by adding the logarithm of the estimated expected crash frequency in the real-time model; the non-integrated model independently estimated the crash frequency and the real-time crash risk. The results showed that the integrated model outperformed the non-integrated model, as it provided much better model results for both the crash frequency and the real-time models. This result indicated that the added component, the logarithm of the expected crash frequency, successfully linked and provided useful information to the two models. This study uncovered few variables that are not typically included in the crash frequency analysis. For example, the average daily standard deviation of speed, which was aggregated based on speed at 1-min intervals, had a positive effect on crash frequency. In conclusion, this study suggested a methodology to improve the crash frequency and real-time models by integrating them, and it might inspire future researchers to understand crash mechanisms better. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Contributions to the study of optimal biphasic pulse shapes for functional electric stimulation: an analytical approach using the excitation functional.

    PubMed

    Suárez-Antola, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    An analytical approach to threshold problems in functional electric stimulation and pacing is proposed, framed in the concept of excitation functional. This functional can be applied to nerve, muscle and myocardium stimulation by external electrodes. An optimal shape for a biphasic pulse is found, using the criteria of minimum energy dissipated in biological tissues and total charge compensation between the excitatory cathodic and the compensatory anodic phases. The method can be further developed and applied to other threshold problems in functional electric stimulation and pacing.

  8. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  9. Estimating the Contribution of Selected Risk Factors in Attributable Burden to Stroke in Iran

    PubMed Central

    Karami, M; Soori, H; Monfared, A Bahadori

    2012-01-01

    Background: Knowledge of the magnitude of avoidable burden by risk factors is needed for health policy, priority setting, and preventing stroke. The aim of this study was to estimate the contribution of selected risk factors including hypertension, overweight, obesity, tobacco use, and physical inactivity to the attributable burden of stroke in Iran. Methods: The World Health Organization Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was employed to calculate the Potential Impact Fraction (PIF) and percentage of avoidable burden of stroke, which attributed to its risk factors among Iranian adults in 2009. Prevalence of risk factors was obtained from the 5th STEPS survey of chronic disease risk factors which conducted in 2009. PIF was estimated on both theoretical minimum and feasible minimum risk. A simulation procedure incorporating sources of uncertainty was used to estimate the uncertainties for the attributable burden. Results: About 15.7% (95% uncertainty intervals: 5.8- 23.5) of attributable Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to stroke in adult males and 15.8% (95% uncertainty intervals: 5.8- 23.5) in adult females are avoidable after changing the current prevalence (16.0% and 16.1% for males and females, respectively) of hypertension to 10% in both sexes. Conclusion: This work highlighted the important role of hypertension and overweight. Accordingly, policy makers are advised to consider these risk factors once implementing interventional program in Iran. PMID:23113182

  10. An analytic model for the electrostatic contribution of the electron cloud to the vertical tune-shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schächter, Levi

    2008-07-01

    An analytic quasi-static model is developed for the analysis of the tune-shift associated with the presence of an electron cloud in a damping ring. The essential assumption is that in its direction of motion, a bunch experiences a uniform cloud density but the latter varies from one bunch to another. A second important component of the model is the life-time since it controls the build-up, the equilibrium as well as the decay of the cloud. It is demonstrated analytically that in case of a train of positron bunches, electrons may be trapped in the vertical direction for the entire train duration. Assuming that the ring is dominated by vertical magnetic fields due to either bends or wigglers, we found excellent agreement between the theoretical predictions and the experimental results reported at Cornell Electron/Positron Storage Ring. The ratio between the vertical and horizontal tune-shifts is shown to be indicative of the distribution of the cloud in the beam-chamber.

  11. Monitoring of emerging pollutants in Guadiamar River basin (South of Spain): analytical method, spatial distribution and environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Garrido, Eva; Camacho-Muñoz, Dolores; Martín, Julia; Santos, Antonio; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

    2016-12-01

    Guadiamar River is located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and connects two protected areas in the South of Spain: Sierra Morena and Doñana National Park. It is sited in an area affected by urban, industrial and agriculture sewage pollution and with tradition on intensive mining activities. Most of the studies performed in this area have been mainly focused on the presence of heavy metals and, until now, little is known about the occurrence of other contaminants such as emerging organic pollutants (EOPs). In this work, an analytical method has been optimized and validated for monitoring of forty-seven EOPs in surface water. The analytical method has been applied to study the distribution and environmental risk of these pollutants in Guadiamar River basin. The analytical method was based on solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole-tandem mass spectrometry. The 60 % of the target compounds were found in the analyzed samples. The highest concentrations were found for two plasticizers (bisphenol A and di(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate, mean concentration up to 930 ng/L) and two pharmaceutical compounds (caffeine (up to 623 ng/L) and salicylic acid (up to 318 ng/L)). This study allowed to evaluate the potential sources (industrial or urban) of the studied compounds and the spatial distribution of their concentrations along the river. Environmental risk assessment showed a major risk on the south of the river, mainly due to discharges of wastewater effluents.

  12. Rare Inherited and De Novo CNVs Reveal Complex Contributions to ASD Risk in Multiplex Families.

    PubMed

    Leppa, Virpi M; Kravitz, Stephanie N; Martin, Christa Lese; Andrieux, Joris; Le Caignec, Cedric; Martin-Coignard, Dominique; DyBuncio, Christina; Sanders, Stephan J; Lowe, Jennifer K; Cantor, Rita M; Geschwind, Daniel H

    2016-09-01

    Rare mutations, including copy-number variants (CNVs), contribute significantly to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk. Although their importance has been established in families with only one affected child (simplex families), the contribution of both de novo and inherited CNVs to ASD in families with multiple affected individuals (multiplex families) is less well understood. We analyzed 1,532 families from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE) to assess the impact of de novo and rare CNVs on ASD risk in multiplex families. We observed a higher burden of large, rare CNVs, including inherited events, in individuals with ASD than in their unaffected siblings (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7), but the rate of de novo events was significantly lower than in simplex families. In previously characterized ASD risk loci, we identified 49 CNVs, comprising 24 inherited events, 19 de novo events, and 6 events of unknown inheritance, a significant enrichment in affected versus control individuals (OR = 3.3). In 21 of the 30 families (71%) in whom at least one affected sibling harbored an established ASD major risk CNV, including five families harboring inherited CNVs, the CNV was not shared by all affected siblings, indicating that other risk factors are contributing. We also identified a rare risk locus for ASD and language delay at chromosomal region 2q24 (implicating NR4A2) and another lower-penetrance locus involving inherited deletions and duplications of WWOX. The genetic architecture in multiplex families differs from that in simplex families and is complex, warranting more complete genetic characterization of larger multiplex ASD cohorts. Copyright © 2016 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Real-time determination of critical quality attributes using near-infrared spectroscopy: a contribution for Process Analytical Technology (PAT).

    PubMed

    Rosas, Juan G; Blanco, Marcel; González, Josep M; Alcalà, Manel

    2012-08-15

    Process Analytical Technology (PAT) is playing a central role in current regulations on pharmaceutical production processes. Proper understanding of all operations and variables connecting the raw materials to end products is one of the keys to ensuring quality of the products and continuous improvement in their production. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been successfully used to develop faster and non-invasive quantitative methods for real-time predicting critical quality attributes (CQA) of pharmaceutical granulates (API content, pH, moisture, flowability, angle of repose and particle size). NIR spectra have been acquired from the bin blender after granulation process in a non-classified area without the need of sample withdrawal. The methodology used for data acquisition, calibration modelling and method application in this context is relatively inexpensive and can be easily implemented by most pharmaceutical laboratories. For this purpose, Partial Least-Squares (PLS) algorithm was used to calculate multivariate calibration models, that provided acceptable Root Mean Square Error of Predictions (RMSEP) values (RMSEP(API)=1.0 mg/g; RMSEP(pH)=0.1; RMSEP(Moisture)=0.1%; RMSEP(Flowability)=0.6 g/s; RMSEP(Angle of repose)=1.7° and RMSEP(Particle size)=2.5%) that allowed the application for routine analyses of production batches. The proposed method affords quality assessment of end products and the determination of important parameters with a view to understanding production processes used by the pharmaceutical industry. As shown here, the NIRS technique is a highly suitable tool for Process Analytical Technologies.

  14. Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted both in natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooking public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodical (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

  15. Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

  16. The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis.

    PubMed

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O; Woods, Scott W; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R; McGuire, Philip

    2016-05-01

    The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR-). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR-: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%-24%, I (2) = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = -.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = -1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = -.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38 monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38 monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis. © The Author 2015. Published by

  17. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    PubMed

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach.

  18. Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

    2017-08-01

    The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

  19. Tissue-Level Mechanical Properties of Bone Contributing to Fracture Risk.

    PubMed

    Nyman, Jeffry S; Granke, Mathilde; Singleton, Robert C; Pharr, George M

    2016-08-01

    Tissue-level mechanical properties characterize mechanical behavior independently of microscopic porosity. Specifically, quasi-static nanoindentation provides measurements of modulus (stiffness) and hardness (resistance to yielding) of tissue at the length scale of the lamella, while dynamic nanoindentation assesses time-dependent behavior in the form of storage modulus (stiffness), loss modulus (dampening), and loss factor (ratio of the two). While these properties are useful in establishing how a gene, signaling pathway, or disease of interest affects bone tissue, they generally do not vary with aging after skeletal maturation or with osteoporosis. Heterogeneity in tissue-level mechanical properties or in compositional properties may contribute to fracture risk, but a consensus on whether the contribution is negative or positive has not emerged. In vivo indentation of bone tissue is now possible, and the mechanical resistance to microindentation has the potential for improving fracture risk assessment, though determinants are currently unknown.

  20. A Non-Degenerate Code of Deleterious Variants in Mendelian Loci Contributes to Complex Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Blair, David R.; Lyttle, Christopher S.; Mortensen, Jonathan M.; Bearden, Charles F.; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Khiabanian, Hossein; Melamed, Rachel; Rabadan, Raul; Bernstam, Elmer V.; Brunak, Søren; Jensen, Lars Juhl; Nicolae, Dan; Shah, Nigam H.; Grossman, Robert L.; Cox, Nancy J.; White, Kevin P.; Rzhetsky, Andrey

    2013-01-01

    Summary Whereas countless highly penetrant variants have been associated with Mendelian disorders, the genetic etiologies underlying complex diseases remain largely unresolved. Here, we examine the extent to which Mendelian variation contributes to complex disease risk by mining the medical records of over 110 million patients. We detect thousands of associations between Mendelian and complex diseases, revealing a non-degenerate, phenotypic code that links each complex disorder to a unique collection of Mendelian loci. Using genome-wide association results, we demonstrate that common variants associated with complex diseases are enriched in the genes indicated by this “Mendelian code.” Finally, we detect hundreds of comorbidity associations among Mendelian disorders, and we use probabilistic genetic modeling to demonstrate that Mendelian variants likely contribute non-additively to the risk for a subset of complex diseases. Overall, this study illustrates a complementary approach for mapping complex disease loci and provides unique predictions concerning the etiologies of specific diseases. PMID:24074861

  1. Risk Factors for Osteoarthritis and Contributing Factors to Current Arthritic Pain in South Korean Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Kyoung Min; Sung, Ki Hyuk; Lee, Seung Yeol; Won, Sung Hun; Kim, Tae Gyun; Choi, Young; Kwon, Soon-Sun; Kim, Yeon Ho; Park, Moon Seok

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Although previous studies have focused on risk factors for osteoarthritis, there is some debate on this issue. Furthermore, associated factors with arthritic symptom (arthralgia) have not been sufficiently investigated, despite its clinical importance in the management of osteoarthritis. This study was performed to examine the risk factors for osteoarthritis and the contributing factors to current arthritic pain in older adults. Materials and Methods The Fourth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys was conducted in 2009. Therein, 720 males and 1008 females aged 65 years and older were included. Comprehensive data on habitual, socioeconomic, medical, nutritional, and psychological factors were collected along with the presence of osteoarthritis and arthritic pain. After univariate analysis, binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for osteoarthritis and contributing factors to current arthritic pain. Results Age (p=0.005), female gender (p<0.001), higher body mass index (BMI) (p<0.001), and osteoporosis (p<0.001) were significant risk factors for osteoarthritis, while higher education level (p=0.025) was a protective factor for osteoarthritis. Higher BMI (p=0.047), lack of weekly moderate intensity activity (p<0.001), and unfavorable subjective health status (p<0.001) were significant factors contributing to current arthritic pain among subjects with osteoarthritis. Both osteoarthritis and current arthritic pain adversely affected health related quality of life. Conclusion Higher BMI, lack of weekly moderate intensity activity, and unfavorable subjective health status were significant factors contributing to current arthritic pain. More attention needs to be paid to psychiatric effects on osteoarthritis and joint related pain. PMID:25510755

  2. Contribution of epigenetic mechanisms to variation in cancer risk among tissues

    PubMed Central

    Klutstein, Michael; Moss, Joshua; Kaplan, Tommy; Cedar, Howard

    2017-01-01

    Recently, it was suggested that tissue variation in cancer risk originates from differences in the number of stem-cell divisions underlying each tissue, leading to different mutation loads. We show that this variation is also correlated with the degree of aberrant CpG island DNA methylation in normal cells. Methylation accumulates during aging in a subset of molecules, suggesting that the epigenetic landscape within a founder-cell population may contribute to tumor formation. PMID:28193856

  3. Investigation of Color in a Fusion Protein Using Advanced Analytical Techniques: Delineating Contributions from Oxidation Products and Process Related Impurities.

    PubMed

    Song, Hangtian; Xu, Jianlin; Jin, Mi; Huang, Chao; Bongers, Jacob; Bai, He; Wu, Wei; Ludwig, Richard; Li, Zhengjian; Tao, Li; Das, Tapan K

    2016-04-01

    Discoloration of protein therapeutics has drawn increased attention recently due to concerns of potential impact on quality and safety. Investigation of discoloration in protein therapeutics for comparability is particularly challenging primarily for two reasons. First, the description of color or discoloration is to certain extent a subjective characteristic rather than a quantitative attribute. Secondly, the species contributing to discoloration may arise from multiple sources and are typically present at trace levels. Our purpose is to development a systematic approach that allows effective identification of the color generating species in protein therapeutics. A yellow-brown discoloration event observed in a therapeutic protein was investigated by optical spectroscopy, ultra-performance liquid chromatography, and mass spectrometry (MS). Majority of the color generating species were identified as oxidatively modified protein. The location of the oxidized amino acid residues were identified by MS/MS. In addition, the impact of process-related impurities co-purified from media on discoloration was also investigated. Finally a semi-quantitative scale to estimate the contribution of each color source is presented, which revealed oxidized peptides are the major contributors. A systematic approach was developed for identification of the color generating species in protein therapeutics and for estimation of the contribution of each color source.

  4. Introduced Siberian chipmunks (Tamias sibiricus barberi) contribute more to lyme borreliosis risk than native reservoir rodents.

    PubMed

    Marsot, Maud; Chapuis, Jean-Louis; Gasqui, Patrick; Dozières, Anne; Masséglia, Sébastien; Pisanu, Benoit; Ferquel, Elisabeth; Vourc'h, Gwenaël

    2013-01-01

    The variation of the composition in species of host communities can modify the risk of disease transmission. In particular, the introduction of a new host species can increase health threats by adding a new reservoir and/or by amplifying the circulation of either exotic or native pathogens. Lyme borreliosis is a multi-host vector-borne disease caused by bacteria belonging to the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato complex. It is transmitted by the bite of hard ticks, especially Ixodes ricinus in Europe. Previous studies showed that the Siberian chipmunk, Tamias sibiricus barberi, an introduced ground squirrel in the Forest of Sénart (near Paris, France) was highly infested by I. ricinus, and consequently infected by B. burgdorferi sl. An index of the contribution of chipmunks to the density of infected questing nymphs on the vegetation (i.e., the acarological risk for humans) was compared to that of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) and of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), two known native and sympatric competent reservoir hosts. Chipmunks produced nearly 8.5 times more infected questing nymphs than voles and mice. Furthermore, they contribute to a higher diversity of B. burgdorferi sl genospecies (B. afzelii, B. burgdorferi sensu stricto and B. garinii). The contribution of chipmunks varied between years and seasons, according to tick availability. As T. s. barberi must be a competent reservoir, it should amplify B. burgdorferi sl infection, hence increasing the risk of Lyme borreliosis in humans.

  5. Introduced Siberian Chipmunks (Tamias sibiricus barberi) Contribute More to Lyme Borreliosis Risk than Native Reservoir Rodents

    PubMed Central

    Marsot, Maud; Chapuis, Jean-Louis; Gasqui, Patrick; Dozières, Anne; Masséglia, Sébastien; Pisanu, Benoit; Ferquel, Elisabeth; Vourc’h, Gwenaël

    2013-01-01

    The variation of the composition in species of host communities can modify the risk of disease transmission. In particular, the introduction of a new host species can increase health threats by adding a new reservoir and/or by amplifying the circulation of either exotic or native pathogens. Lyme borreliosis is a multi-host vector-borne disease caused by bacteria belonging to the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato complex. It is transmitted by the bite of hard ticks, especially Ixodes ricinus in Europe. Previous studies showed that the Siberian chipmunk, Tamias sibiricus barberi, an introduced ground squirrel in the Forest of Sénart (near Paris, France) was highly infested by I. ricinus, and consequently infected by B. burgdorferi sl. An index of the contribution of chipmunks to the density of infected questing nymphs on the vegetation (i.e., the acarological risk for humans) was compared to that of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) and of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), two known native and sympatric competent reservoir hosts. Chipmunks produced nearly 8.5 times more infected questing nymphs than voles and mice. Furthermore, they contribute to a higher diversity of B. burgdorferi sl genospecies (B. afzelii, B. burgdorferi sensu stricto and B. garinii). The contribution of chipmunks varied between years and seasons, according to tick availability. As T. s. barberi must be a competent reservoir, it should amplify B. burgdorferi sl infection, hence increasing the risk of Lyme borreliosis in humans. PMID:23383170

  6. Behavioral Inhibition and Risk for Developing Social Anxiety Disorder: A Meta-Analytic Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clauss, Jacqueline A.; Blackford, Jennifer Urbano

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Behavioral inhibition (BI) has been associated with increased risk for developing social anxiety disorder (SAD); however, the degree of risk associated with BI has yet to be systematically examined and quantified. The goal of the present study was to quantify the association between childhood BI and risk for developing SAD. Method: A…

  7. Behavioral Inhibition and Risk for Developing Social Anxiety Disorder: A Meta-Analytic Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clauss, Jacqueline A.; Blackford, Jennifer Urbano

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Behavioral inhibition (BI) has been associated with increased risk for developing social anxiety disorder (SAD); however, the degree of risk associated with BI has yet to be systematically examined and quantified. The goal of the present study was to quantify the association between childhood BI and risk for developing SAD. Method: A…

  8. A simple matrix of analytical performance to identify assays that risk patients using External Quality Assurance Program data.

    PubMed

    Mackay, Mark; Hegedus, Gabe; Badrick, Tony

    2016-05-01

    We propose a simple way to reliably rank assays for improvement according to patient risk, based solely on EQA imprecision and biological variation data. Because the underlying technique aligns the imprecision class of an assay from EQA data, peer performance can be used to assess achievable imprecision and the risk ranking can not only prioritise improvement but also highlight laboratory QC operating parameters that are easy to manage and provide reliable, acceptable performance. A modified Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) is applied to produce an analyte risk rating based on three factors, each of which is graded: 1) the ease of detecting analytical errors based on the ratio of allowable limits of performance to imprecision (Assay Capability) compared to absolute standards and to peers, 2) the predicted frequency of errors in patient monitoring based on the ratio of within-individual biological variation to laboratory imprecision, and 3) the clinical importance of the assay as a surrogate marker for harm arising from an error. We provide laboratory examples to illustrate these models. The proposed models using only EQA data can objectively identify assays at risk of failing against biological variation goals for monitoring patients and suggest parameters for reliable performance. Copyright © 2016 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Is food allergen analysis flawed? Health and supply chain risks and a proposed framework to address urgent analytical needs.

    PubMed

    Walker, M J; Burns, D T; Elliott, C T; Gowland, M H; Mills, E N Clare

    2016-01-07

    Food allergy is an increasing problem for those affected, their families or carers, the food industry and for regulators. The food supply chain is highly vulnerable to fraud involving food allergens, risking fatalities and severe reputational damage to the food industry. Many facets are being pursued to ameliorate the difficulties including better food labelling and the concept of thresholds of elicitation of allergy symptoms as risk management tools. These efforts depend to a high degree on the ability reliably to detect and quantify food allergens; yet all current analytical approaches exhibit severe deficiencies that jeopardise accurate results being produced particularly in terms of the risks of false positive and false negative reporting. If we fail to realise the promise of current risk assessment and risk management of food allergens through lack of the ability to measure food allergens reproducibly and with traceability to an international unit of measurement, the analytical community will have failed a significant societal challenge. Three distinct but interrelated areas of analytical work are urgently needed to address the substantial gaps identified: (a) a coordinated international programme for the production of properly characterised clinically relevant reference materials and calibrants for food allergen analysis; (b) an international programme to widen the scope of proteomics and genomics bioinformatics for the genera containing the major allergens to address problems in ELISA, MS and DNA methods; (c) the initiation of a coordinated international programme leading to reference methods for allergen proteins that provide results traceable to the SI. This article describes in more detail food allergy, the risks of inapplicable or flawed allergen analyses with examples and a proposed framework, including clinically relevant incurred allergen concentrations, to address the currently unmet and urgently required analytical requirements. Support for the

  10. MORT User's Manual for use with the Management Oversight and Risk Tree analytical logic diagram. [Contains a list of System Safety Development Center publications

    SciTech Connect

    Knox, N.W.; Eicher, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    This report contains the User's Manual for MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree), a logic diagram in the form of a work sheet'' that illustrates a long series of interrelated questions. MORT is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1,500 specific elements of an ideal universal'' management program for optimizing environment, safety and health, and other programs. This User's Manual is intended to be used with the MORT diagram dated February 1992.

  11. Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

    SciTech Connect

    Garrick, B.J.

    1997-04-30

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to {open_quotes}fear anything nuclear,{close_quotes} radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure.

  12. Racial/Ethnic Differences in Gestational Diabetes Prevalence and Contribution of Common Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Pu, Jia; Zhao, Beinan; Wang, Elsie J; Nimbal, Vani; Osmundson, Sarah; Kunz, Liza; Popat, Rita A; Chung, Sukyung; Palaniappan, Latha P

    2015-09-01

    The White House, the American Heart Association, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute have all recently acknowledged the need to disaggregate Asian American subgroups to better understand this heterogeneous racial group. This study aims to assess racial/ethnic differences in relative contribution of risk factors of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) among Asian subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese), Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks, and non-Hispanic whites. Pregnant women in 2007-2012 were identified through California state birth certificate records and linked to the electronic health records in a large mixed-payer ambulatory care organisation in Northern California (n = 24 195). Relative risk and population attributable fraction (PAF) for specific racial/ethnic groups were calculated to assess the contributions of advanced maternal age, overweight/obesity (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) standards and World Health Organization (WHO)/American Diabetes Association (ADA) body mass index cut-offs for Asians), family history of type 2 diabetes, and foreign-born status. GDM was most prevalent among Asian Indians (19.3%). Relative risks were similar across all race/ethnic groups. Advanced maternal age had higher PAFs in non-Hispanic whites (22.5%) and Hispanics (22.7%). Meanwhile family history (Asian Indians 22.6%, Chinese 22.9%) and foreign-borne status (Chinese 40.2%, Filipinos 30.2%) had higher PAFs in Asian subgroups. Overweight/obesity was the most important GDM risk factor for non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, Asian Indians, and Filipinos when the WHO/ADA cut-off points were applied. Advanced maternal age was the only risk factor studied that was modified by race/ethnicity, with non-Hispanic white and Hispanic women being more adversely affected than other racial/ethnic groups. Overweight/obesity, advanced maternal age, family history of type 2

  13. Contribution of Common Infections to Cardiovascular risk in HIV Positive Individuals.

    PubMed

    Berquist, Victoria; Hoy, Jennifer F; Trevillyan, Janine M

    HIV-positive individuals are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease due to complex interactions between the increased incidence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and HIV and antiretroviral-associated inflammation and dyslipidemia. Increasing evidence suggests that a number of important co-pathogens, including cytomegalovirus, hepatitis C virus, and periodontal disease, are likely to also be contributing. Mechanisms such as molecular mimicry and modification of lipids play a role; however, induction of systemic inflammation is the likely key pathogenic link by which this occurs. Treatments to reduce the presence of infection, such as antibiotics, antivirals, or dental hygiene, show potential as modifiers of cardiovascular risk in HIV-positive individuals. This review will discuss the evidence regarding the contribution of these key co-pathogens, Chlamydia pneumoniae, cytomegalovirus, and hepatitis C virus, to cardiovascular risk in HIV-positive individuals. It will also review the roles that inflammation, microbial translocation, and periodontal infection play in promoting cardiovascular disease. The potential cardiovascular benefits of treating these infections with antimicrobials (such as valganciclovir) or improvements in dental hygiene (in the setting of periodontal disease) will be explored. As the life expectancy of HIV-positive individuals increases and the HIV-positive population thus ages, reducing the impact of age-related comorbidities, and particularly cardiovascular disease, will be of increasing importance at both an individual and population level.

  14. Evaluation of the risk factors associated with rectal neuroendocrine tumors: a big data analytic study from a health screening center.

    PubMed

    Pyo, Jeung Hui; Hong, Sung Noh; Min, Byung-Hoon; Lee, Jun Haeng; Chang, Dong Kyung; Rhee, Poong-Lyul; Kim, Jae Jun; Choi, Sun Kyu; Jung, Sin-Ho; Son, Hee Jung; Kim, Young-Ho

    2016-12-01

    Rectal neuroendocrine tumor (NET) is the most common NET in Asia. The risk factors associated with rectal NETs are unclear because of the overall low incidence rate of these tumors and the associated difficulty in conducting large epidemiological studies on rare cases. The aim of this study was to exploit the benefits of big data analytics to assess the risk factors associated with rectal NET. A retrospective case-control study was conducted, including 102 patients with histologically confirmed rectal NETs and 52,583 healthy controls who underwent screening colonoscopy at the Center for Health Promotion of the Samsung Medical Center in Korea between January 2002 and December 2012. Information on different risk factors was collected and logistic regression analysis applied to identify predictive factors. Four factors were significantly associated with rectal NET: higher levels of cholesterol [odds ratio (OR) = 1.007, 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.001-1.013, p = 0.016] and ferritin (OR = 1.502, 95 % CI, 1.167-1.935, p = 0.002), presence of metabolic syndrome (OR = 1.768, 95 % CI, 1.071-2.918, p = 0.026), and family history of cancer among first-degree relatives (OR = 1.664, 95 % CI, 1.019-2.718, p = 0.042). The findings of our study demonstrate the benefits of using big data analytics for research and clinical risk factor studies. Specifically, in this study, this analytical method was applied to identify higher levels of serum cholesterol and ferritin, metabolic syndrome, and family history of cancer as factors that may explain the increasing incidence and prevalence of rectal NET.

  15. Precise determination of the low-energy hadronic contribution to the muon g -2 from analyticity and unitarity: An improved analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ananthanarayan, B.; Caprini, Irinel; Das, Diganta; Imsong, I. Sentitemsu

    2016-06-01

    The two-pion low-energy contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, aμ≡(g -2 )μ/2 , expressed as an integral over the modulus squared of the pion electromagnetic form factor, brings a relatively large contribution to the theoretical error, since the low accuracy of experimental measurements in this region is amplified by the drastic increase of the integration kernel. We derive stringent constraints on the two-pion contribution by exploiting analyticity and unitarity of the pion electromagnetic form factor. To avoid the poor knowledge of the modulus of this function, we use instead its phase, known with high precision in the elastic region from Roy equations for pion-pion scattering via the Fermi-Watson theorem. Above the inelastic threshold we adopt a conservative integral condition on the modulus, determined from data and perturbative QCD. Additional high precision data on the modulus in the range 0.65-0.71 GeV, obtained from e+e- annihilation and τ -decay experiments, are used to improve the predictions on the modulus at lower energies by means of a parametrization-free analytic extrapolation. The results are optimal for a given input and do not depend on the unknown phase of the form factor above the inelastic threshold. The present work improves a previous analysis based on the same technique, including more experimental data and employing better statistical tools for their treatment. We obtain for the contribution to aμ from below 0.63 GeV the value (133.258 ±0.723 )×10-10 , which amounts to a reduction of the theoretical error by about 6 ×10-11 .

  16. Behavioral HIV risk reduction among people who inject drugs: meta-analytic evidence of efficacy.

    PubMed

    Copenhaver, Michael M; Johnson, Blair T; Lee, I-Ching; Harman, Jennifer J; Carey, Michael P

    2006-09-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate behavioral HIV risk reduction interventions targeting people who inject drugs. We included 37 RCTs evaluating 49 independent HIV risk reduction interventions with 10,190 participants. Compared to controls, intervention participants reduced injection drug use (IDU) and non-IDU, increased drug treatment entry, increased condom use, and decreased trading sex for drugs. Interventions were more successful at reducing IDU when participants were non-Caucasians, when content focused equivalently on drug-related and sex-related risks, and when content included interpersonal skills training specific for safer needle use. Condom use outcomes improved when two intervention facilitators were used instead of one. IDU outcomes did not decay, but condom use outcomes did. Behavioral interventions reduce risk behaviors among people who inject drugs, especially when interventions target both drug risk and sexual risk behaviors, and when they include certain behavioral skills components. Implications for future interventions are presented.

  17. Use of analytic morphomics of liver, spleen, and body composition to identify patients at risk for cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Krishnamurthy, Venkat; Zhang, Peng; Ethiraj, Sampath; Enchakalody, Binu; Waljee, Akbar K; Wang, Lu; Wang, Stewart C; Su, Grace L

    2015-02-01

    A diagnosis of cirrhosis can be made on the basis of findings from imaging studies, but these are subjective. Analytic morphomics uses computational image processing algorithms to provide precise and detailed measurements of organs and body tissues. We investigated whether morphomic parameters can be used to identify patients with cirrhosis. In a retrospective study, we performed analytic morphomics on data collected from 357 patients evaluated at the University of Michigan from 2004 to 2012 who had a liver biopsy within 6 months of a computed tomography scan for any reason. We used logistic regression with elastic net regularization and cross-validation to develop predictive models for cirrhosis, within 80% randomly selected internal training set. The other 20% data were used as internal test set to ensure that model overfitting did not occur. In validation studies, we tested the performance of our models on an external cohort of patients from a different health system. Our predictive models, which were based on analytic morphomics and demographics (morphomics model) or analytic morphomics, demographics, and laboratory studies (full model), identified patients with cirrhosis with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of 0.91 and 0.90, respectively, compared with 0.69, 0.77, and 0.76 for aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio, Lok Score, and FIB-4, respectively, by using the same data set. In the validation set, our morphomics model identified patients who developed cirrhosis with AUROC value of 0.97, and the full model identified them with AUROC value of 0.90. We used analytic morphomics to demonstrate that cirrhosis can be objectively quantified by using medical imaging. In a retrospective analysis of multi-protocol scans, we found that it is possible to identify patients who have cirrhosis on the basis of analyses of preexisting scans, without significant additional risk or cost. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by

  18. Socioeconomic status and health: how education, income, and occupation contribute to risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed Central

    Winkleby, M A; Jatulis, D E; Frank, E; Fortmann, S P

    1992-01-01

    BACKGROUND. Socioeconomic status (SES) is usually measured by determining education, income, occupation, or a composite of these dimensions. Although education is the most commonly used measure of SES in epidemiological studies, no investigators in the United States have conducted an empirical analysis quantifying the relative impact of each separate dimension of SES on risk factors for disease. METHODS. Using data on 2380 participants from the Stanford Five-City Project (85% White, non-Hispanic), we examined the independent contribution of education, income, and occupation to a set of cardiovascular disease risk factors (cigarette smoking, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). RESULTS. The relationship between these SES measures and risk factors was strongest and most consistent for education, showing higher risk associated with lower levels of education. Using a forward selection model that allowed for inclusion of all three SES measures after adjustment for age and time of survey, education was the only measure that was significantly associated with the risk factors (P less than .05). CONCLUSION. If economics or time dictate that a single parameter of SES be chosen and if the research hypothesis does not dictate otherwise, higher education may be the best SES predictor of good health. PMID:1585961

  19. Biomarkers of cardiovascular disease: contributions to risk prediction in individuals with diabetes.

    PubMed

    Bachmann, Katherine N; Wang, Thomas J

    2017-09-28

    Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death, especially in individuals with diabetes mellitus, whose risk of morbidity and mortality due to cardiovascular disease is markedly increased compared with the general population. There has been growing interest in the identification of biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in people with diabetes. The present review focuses on the current and potential contributions of these biomarkers to predicting cardiovascular risk in individuals with diabetes. At present, certain biomarkers and biomarker combinations can lead to modest improvements in the prediction of cardiovascular disease in diabetes beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Emerging technologies may enable the discovery of novel biomarkers and generate new information about known biomarkers (such as new combinations of biomarkers), which could lead to significant improvements in cardiovascular disease risk prediction. A critical question, however, is whether improvements in risk prediction will affect processes of care and decision making in clinical practice, as this will be required to achieve the ultimate goal of improving clinical outcomes in diabetes.

  20. Contribution of inorganic arsenic sources to population exposure risk on a regional scale.

    PubMed

    Chou, Wei-Chun; Chen, Jein-Wen; Liao, Chung-Min

    2016-07-01

    Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) in the human population is associated with various internal cancers and other adverse outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate a population-scale exposure risk attributable to iAs consumptions by linking a stochastic physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and biomonitoring data of iAs in urine. The urinary As concentrations were obtained from a total of 1,043 subjects living in an industrial area of Taiwan. The results showed that the study subjects had an iAs exposure risk of 27 % (the daily iAs intake for 27 % study subjects exceeded the WHO-recommended value, 2.1 μg iAs day(-1) kg(-1) body weight). Moreover, drinking water and cooked rice contributed to the iAs exposure risk by 10 and 41 %, respectively. The predicted risks in the current study were 4.82, 27.21, 34.69, and 64.17 %, respectively, among the mid-range of Mexico, Taiwan (this study), Korea, and Bangladesh reported in the literature. In conclusion, we developed a population-scale-based risk model that covered the broad range of iAS exposure by integrating stochastic PBPK modeling and reverse dosimetry to generate probabilistic distribution of As intake corresponding to urinary As measured from the cohort study. The model can also be updated as new urinary As information becomes available.

  1. [Accidental intravenous injection of potassium chloride: analysis of contributing factors and barriers to risk reduction].

    PubMed

    Bonvin, A; Vantard, N; Charpiat, B; Pral, N; Leboucher, G; Philip-Girard, F; Viale, J-P

    2009-05-01

    Errors linked to injectable potassium chloride (KCl) have been the cause of deaths which have occurred for many years. Following an accidental direct intravenous injection of KCl of no clinical consequence for the patient, we have analyzed the contributive factors, established an action plan to prevent this risk and finally assessed its impact. Among the causes leading to medication errors, we have identified those linked to the handling of the drugs by nurses, the team, the work conditions, the organization, the institutional context and finally to the drug itself. The risk reduction procedure involved a withdrawal of injectable KCI ampoules from wards, possible in 52% of the care units, a reorganization of storage for the others. The subsequent monitoring of floorstocks revealed that these measures were insufficient and that the risks prevailed due to the presence of KCI ampoules in drawers assigned to other ionic solutions. A study carried out among the medical and nursing personnel revealed that 61.2% of the doctors thought that the risk existed in their ward and 68% of the nurses considered themselves to be exposed to the risk of a medication error. The drug supply chain of our institution, as in numerous others, is not safe. Hospitals are not yet organized adequately to prevent the occurrence of such an error. The comparison with foreign organizations of drug dispensation allows us to think that the improvement and professionalization of the drug supply chain will both be assets in the prevention of such medication errors.

  2. Estrogen-related genes and their contribution to racial differences in breast cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chu; Lowe, Kimberly; Doody, David R.; Carlson, Christopher S.; Chen, Christina T.; Houck, John; Weiss, Linda K.; Marchbanks, Polly A.; Bernstein, Leslie; Spirtas, Robert; McDonald, Jill A.; Strom, Brian L.; Burkman, Ronald T.; Simon, Michael S.; Liff, Jonathan M.; Daling, Janet R.; Malone, Kathleen E.

    2012-01-01

    Racial differences in breast cancer risk, including the risks of hormone receptor subtypes of breast cancer, have been previously reported. We evaluated whether variation in genes related to estrogen metabolism (COMT, CYP1A1, CYP1B1, CYP17A1, CYP19A1, ESR1, GSTM1, GSTP1, GSTT1, HSD17B1, SULT1A1, and UGT1A1) contributes to breast cancer risk and/or racial differences in risk within the CARE study, a multi-centered, population-based case–control study of breast cancer. Genetic variation was assessed as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), haplotypes, and SNP–hormone therapy (HT) interactions within a subset of 1,644 cases and 1,451 controls, including 949 Black women (493 cases and 456 controls), sampled from the CARE study population. No appreciable associations with breast cancer risk were detected for single SNPs or haplotypes in women overall. We detected SNP–HT interactions in women overall within CYP1B1 (rs1800440; phet = 0.003) and within CYP17A1 (rs743572; phet = 0.009) in which never users of HT were at a decreased risk of breast cancer, while investigated among racial groups, we detected evidence of an SNP–HT interaction with CYP1B1 in White women (p value = 0.02) and with CYP17A1 in Black women (p value = 0.04). This analysis suggests that HT use may modify the effect of variation in estrogen-related genes on breast cancer risk, which may affect Black and White women to a different extent. PMID:22418777

  3. An analytical framework for quantifying wildland fire risk and fuel treatment benefit

    Treesearch

    Joe H. Scott

    2006-01-01

    Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr –1 or $ yr –1 ac –1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability of burning at that point, the relative frequency...

  4. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  5. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  6. Genes and/or jeans?: Genetic and socio-cultural contributions to risk for eating disorders.

    PubMed

    Becker, Anne E; Keel, Pamela; Anderson-Fye, Eileen P; Thomas, Jennifer J

    2004-01-01

    Eating disorders are prevalent among young adult females and pose serious psychological and medical risks. Notwithstanding important advances, efforts to develop effective means of preventing and treating eating disorders have been limited by an incomplete understanding of their multifactorial etiology. Whereas epidemiologic data strongly suggest the influence of socio-cultural context in moderating risk, many hypotheses about how these effects are exerted have remained empirically unevaluated. Specifically, experimental and observational data suggest that social transition (e.g., transnational migration, urbanization, modernization), Western media exposure, and certain peer environments (involving social comparison and teasing) may all contribute to risk. With respect to genetic influences on etiology, family and twin studies have supported a genetic diathesis to eating disorders. Whereas, molecular genetic studies have generated interesting leads- with the most promising findings emerging for genes related to the function of serotonin-they have yet to identify well-replicated susceptibility loci. This paper reviews the data supporting both socio-cultural and genetic contributions for eating disorders and suggests productive future strategies for continuing to unravel their likely multiple and complex interactions.

  7. Understanding Sociocultural Factors Contributing to HIV Risk Among Ayoreo Bolivian Sex Workers.

    PubMed

    López Entrambasaguas, Olga María; Granero-Molina, José; Hernández-Padilla, Jose; Fernández-Sola, Cayetano

    2015-01-01

    The Bolivian indigenous Ayoreo ethnic people are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections and HIV. Ayoreo women who also work in sex trades belong to an extremely high-risk group, and prevention programs are not delivering effective outcomes for them. The aim of our study was to explore, describe, and understand behavioral and cultural patterns related to sexual and reproductive health in Ayoreo sex workers. A qualitative-ethnographic study was designed; data were collected through participant observation and in-depth interviews with sex workers and key informants. Two fundamental themes contributing to HIV risk for female Ayoreo sex workers in Bolivia emerged: reproductive/sexual freedom and sociocultural risk determinants. We concluded that the in-depth examination of the sexual-reproductive culture amongst the Ayoreo has provided useful information, which might contribute to the cultural adaptation and design of future policies and prevention programs for sexually transmitted infections and HIV in this group. Copyright © 2015 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Volatile composition of Merlot red wine and its contribution to the aroma: optimization and validation of analytical method.

    PubMed

    Arcari, Stefany Grützmann; Caliari, Vinicius; Sganzerla, Marla; Godoy, Helena Teixeira

    2017-11-01

    A methodology for the determination of volatile compounds in red wine using headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with gas chromatography-ion trap/ mass spectrometry (GC-IT/MS) and flame ionization detector (GC -FID) was developed, validated and applied to a sample of Brazilian red wine. The optimization strategy was conducted using the Plackett-Burman design for variable selection and central composite rotational design (CCRD). The response surface methodology showed that the performance of the extraction of the volatile compounds using divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane (DVB/CAR/PDMS) fiber is improved with no sample dilution, the addition of 30% NaCl, applying an extraction temperature of 56°C and extraction time of 55min. The qualitative method allowed the extraction and identification of 60 volatile compounds in the sample studied, notably the classes of esters, alcohols, and fatty acids. Furthermore, the method was successfully validated for the quantification of 55 volatile compounds of importance in wines and applied to twelve samples of Merlot red wine from South of Brazil. The calculation of the odor activity value (OAV) showed the most important components of the samples aroma. Ethyl isovalerate, ethyl hexanoate, 1-hexanol, octanoic acid and ethyl cinnamate had the greatest contribution to the aroma of the wines analyzed, which is predominantly fruity with the presence of herbal and fatty odors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. An analytics based clinical decision support system for CVD risk assessment and management.

    PubMed

    Anand, Shreya; Patil, Ravindra B; Krishnamoorthy, P

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of disability and premature death throughout the world. Acute coronary events and other cardiovascular events frequently occur suddenly, and are often fatal before medical care can be given. Risk factor modification can reduce clinical events and premature death in people with established cardiovascular disease as well as in those who are at high cardiovascular risk due to one or more risk factors. In this work, India specific World Health Organization-International Society of Hypertension (WHO-ISH) guidelines has been implemented to stratify the subjects by their risk profile. It provides simplified approach to detect those people at high risk and provides guidance on what should be done for prevention of heart attack. Further, based on the risk stratification, lifestyle coaching, medication management and the next tests are advised to the subjects. This approach will help in early detection of cardiovascular risk subjects and provide necessary interventions at appropriate time frame. Also, it acts as motivation to the individuals to comply with recommended lifestyle changes.

  10. Application of the analytic hierarchy process to a risk assessment of emerging infectious diseases in Shaoxing city in southern China.

    PubMed

    Tu, Chunyu; Fang, Yirong; Huang, Zhaohui; Tan, Rongmei

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the likelihood of an outbreak or epidemic of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in Shaoxing city, China, and its resulting impact to provide decision makers with quantitative, directive results. Factors related to the risk of EIDs were selected through meeting with experts and were arranged in a hierarchical structure. These evaluation factors were also weighted to allow the use of a point system for evaluation. As a result, 14 evaluation factors comprising a 3-layer hierarchy were generated. The riskiest top 10 EIDs were HIV/AIDS (consistency index [CI] = 3.206), cholera (CI = 3.103), SARS (CI = 2.804), acute schistosomiasis (CI = 2.784), malaria (CI = 2.777), legionellosis (CI = 2.743), avian influenza A/H5N1 (CI = 2.734), dengue fever (CI = 2.702), Escherichia coli O157:H7 enteritis (CI = 2.593), and plague (CI = 2.553). The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in the management of high risk EIDs in their efforts to (i) make resource allocation decisions, (ii) make high-level planning decisions, and (iii) raise public awareness of the EID risk. The results showed that the EID risk in Shaoxing could be effectively assessed through an analytic hierarchy process.

  11. The contribution of rare variants to risk of schizophrenia in individuals with and without intellectual disability.

    PubMed

    Singh, Tarjinder; Walters, James T R; Johnstone, Mandy; Curtis, David; Suvisaari, Jaana; Torniainen, Minna; Rees, Elliott; Iyegbe, Conrad; Blackwood, Douglas; McIntosh, Andrew M; Kirov, Georg; Geschwind, Daniel; Murray, Robin M; Di Forti, Marta; Bramon, Elvira; Gandal, Michael; Hultman, Christina M; Sklar, Pamela; Palotie, Aarno; Sullivan, Patrick F; O'Donovan, Michael C; Owen, Michael J; Barrett, Jeffrey C

    2017-08-01

    By performing a meta-analysis of rare coding variants in whole-exome sequences from 4,133 schizophrenia cases and 9,274 controls, de novo mutations in 1,077 family trios, and copy number variants from 6,882 cases and 11,255 controls, we show that individuals with schizophrenia carry a significant burden of rare, damaging variants in 3,488 genes previously identified as having a near-complete depletion of loss-of-function variants. In patients with schizophrenia who also have intellectual disability, this burden is concentrated in risk genes associated with neurodevelopmental disorders. After excluding known risk genes for neurodevelopmental disorders, a significant rare variant burden persists in other genes intolerant of loss-of-function variants; although this effect is notably stronger in patients with both schizophrenia and intellectual disability, it is also seen in patients with schizophrenia who do not have intellectual disability. Together, our results show that rare, damaging variants contribute to the risk of schizophrenia both with and without intellectual disability and support an overlap of genetic risk between schizophrenia and other neurodevelopmental disorders.

  12. Neglect and hereditary risk: Their relative contribution to schizophrenia with negative symptomatology.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Bernard J; Jones, Brian J

    2016-05-01

    There is evidence that genetic and environmental stressors contribute to the genesis of schizophrenia. However, the relevant impact of each factor remains unclear. We tested for an interactive effect between childhood neglect and family history of serious mental illness. Data were further analyzed for a possible connection to type of schizophrenic symptoms. Data for the study are taken from the medical records of 641 patients with schizophrenia from a large state hospital in the northeastern United States. Clinical assessments were divided into positive and negative symptomatology through application of the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS), the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS) and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Detailed information about childhood neglect and family history of serious mental illness was obtained through Social Service Assessment interviews at intake and during hospital stay. Among clients with no family history of mental illness, childhood neglect does not meaningfully affect the risk of negative versus positive schizophrenia. For clients with such history, on the other hand, neglect significantly raises the risk of schizophrenia with negative symptomatology. Our central finding is that risk for negative symptoms of schizophrenia are elevated by childhood neglect combined with a history of serious mental illness within the family. This is the only report to combine schizophrenic symptoms, familial risk and childhood neglect to date. Implications for primary prevention and treatment are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  13. Patient representatives' contributions to the benefit-risk assessment tasks of the European Medicines Agency scientific committees.

    PubMed

    Bernabe, Rosemarie D L C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; van Delden, Johannes

    2014-12-01

    In the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the involvement of patients has been increasingly recognized as valuable and necessary. Specifically in scientific committees, patients through patient representatives are actively involved in deliberations and decision making processes. These scientific committees are meant to ensure that licensed medicines have a positive benefit-risk ratio in favour of the patients and users. To investigate what the contributions are of patient representatives in benefit-risk assessment, we interviewed 15 scientific committee members, 10 of whom are/were EU-state regulatory representatives and five are/were patient representatives. We asked the participants questions related to the benefit-risk assessment tasks of their committees, the connection between patient representatives and the patient perspective, and the contribution of patient representatives in the various benefit-risk assessments tasks. We found that the contribution of patient representatives benefit-risk assessment may be a variable of the benefits and the risks involved in the drug such that the necessity of their contribution is strongly felt when both benefits and risks are high, when benefits are almost equal or are equal to risks and when both benefits and risks are low. In terms of the various benefit-risk tasks, patient representatives contribute to benefit-risk analysis by providing criteria that help define the benefit-risk picture. In benefit-risk evaluation, patient representatives aid in providing a specific basis for the values and weights given to specific benefits and risks and in decision making, they provide what may be a crucial patient perspective in terms of the acceptability of risks. Hence, patient representatives provide a specific expertise in these scientific committees. © 2014 The British Pharmacological Society.

  14. Analgesic use and risk of renal cell carcinoma: A case-control, cohort and meta-analytic assessment.

    PubMed

    Karami, Sara; Daughtery, Sarah E; Schwartz, Kendra; Davis, Faith G; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Wacholder, Sholom; Graubard, Barry I; Berndt, Sonja I; Hofmann, Jonathan N; Purdue, Mark P; Moore, Lee E; Colt, Joanne S

    2016-08-01

    Analgesics are the most commonly consumed drugs worldwide. Evidence that analgesics increase kidney cancer risk has been mixed. We investigated the association between renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and analgesic use in a large population-based case-control study and a post-trial observational cohort study. Findings were used to update a recent meta-analytic review. We analyzed data from 1,217 RCC cases and 1,235 controls in the US Kidney Cancer Study and 98,807 participants in the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO: n = 137 RCCs). Self-reported acetaminophen, aspirin and nonsteroid anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use and duration information was assessed in relation to RCC. For the US Kidney Cancer Study, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using unconditional logistic regression. For PLCO, we computed hazard ratios (HRs) and 95%CIs using Cox regression. Among case-control participants, RCC risk was associated with over-the-counter acetaminophen use (OR = 1.35, 95%CI = 1.01-1.83). There was a positive trend with increasing duration (p-trend = 0.01), with a two-fold risk for use ≥10 years (OR = 2.01, 95%CI = 1.30-3.12). No association with prescription acetaminophen use was detected. In PLCO, acetaminophen use was also associated with increased RCC risk (HR = 1.68, 95%CI = 1.19-2.39), although elevated risk was absent among the few long-term users. No association with RCC risk was detected for aspirin or NSAIDs use in either study. An association between acetaminophen use and kidney cancer was supported by meta-analytic cohort (n = 4; summary relative risk = 1.34; 95%CI = 1.13-1.59; p-heterogeneity  = 0.40) and case-control (n = 9, summary OR = 1.20; 95%CI = 1.01-1.42; p-heterogeneity  = 0.05) findings. In brief, acetaminophen use may increase the risk of developing RCC.

  15. Behavioral HIV Risk Reduction among People Who Inject Drugs: Meta-Analytic Evidence of Efficacy

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Blair T.; Lee, I-Ching; Harman, Jennifer J.; Carey, Michael P.

    2008-01-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate behavioral HIV-risk reduction interventions targeting people who inject drugs. We included 37 RCTs evaluating 49 independent HIV-risk reduction interventions with 10,190 participants. Compared to controls, intervention participants reduced injection-and non-injection drug use, increased drug treatment entry, increased condom use, and decreased trading sex for drugs. Interventions were more successful at reducing injection drug use when participants were non-Caucasians, when content focused equivalently on drug- and sex-related risk, and when content included interpersonal skills training specific to safer needle use. Condom use outcomes improved when two intervention facilitators were used instead of one. Injection drug use outcomes did not decay, but condom use outcomes did. Behavioral interventions do reduce risk behaviors among people who inject drugs, especially when interventions target both drug- and sexual-risk behavior, and when they include certain behavioral skills components. Implications for future interventions are presented. PMID:16919744

  16. CD16 and CD32 Gene Polymorphisms May Contribute to Risk of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jiannan; Zhao, Liyun; Zhang, Yan; Guo, Qingxu; Chen, Hui

    2016-06-18

    BACKGROUND Epidemiological studies have evaluated the associations of CD16 158F>V and CD32 131H>R gene polymorphisms with the risk of idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). MATERIAL AND METHODS Published studies on CD16 158F>V and CD32 131H>R polymorphisms with susceptibility to ITP were systematically reviewed until April 1, 2014. The Cochrane Library Database, Medline, CINAHL, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM) were used to search for relevant studies and then a meta-analysis was conducted by using Stata 12.0 software in order to produce consistent statistical results. RESULTS In total, 10 clinical case-control studies with 741 ITP patients and 1092 healthy controls were enrolled for quantitative data analysis. Results of this meta-analysis suggest that CD16 158F>V polymorphism had strong correlations with the susceptibility to ITP under 5 genetic models (all P<0.05). However, no similar associations were found between CD32 131H>R polymorphism and the susceptibility to ITP (all P>0.05). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity revealed that CD16 158F>V polymorphism was associated with the increased risk of ITP among both Caucasian and non-Caucasian populations. Nevertheless, no statistically significant correlations between CD32 131H>R polymorphism and the risk of ITP were observed among Caucasians and non-Caucasians (all P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that CD16 158F>V polymorphism may contribute to the increased risk of ITP, whereas CD32 131H>R polymorphism may not be an important risk factor for ITP.

  17. Contributions of polygenic risk for obesity to PTSD-related metabolic syndrome and cortical thickness.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Erika J; Miller, Danielle R; Logue, Mark W; Sumner, Jennifer; Stoop, Tawni B; Leritz, Elizabeth C; Hayes, Jasmeet P; Stone, Annjanette; Schichman, Steven A; McGlinchey, Regina E; Milberg, William P; Miller, Mark W

    2017-10-01

    Research suggests that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and that PTSD-associated MetS is related to decreased cortical thickness. However, the role of genetic factors in these associations is unclear. This study evaluated contributions of polygenic obesity risk and PTSD to MetS and of MetS and polygenic obesity risk to cortical thickness. 196 white, non-Hispanic veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent clinical diagnostic interviews, physiological assessments, and genome-wide genotyping; 168 also completed magnetic resonance imaging scans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for obesity were calculated from results of a prior genome-wide association study (Speliotes et al., 2010) and PTSD and MetS severity factor scores were obtained. Obesity PRS (β=0.15, p=0.009) and PTSD (β=0.17, p=0.005) predicted MetS and interacted such that the association between PTSD and MetS was stronger in individuals with greater polygenic obesity risk (β=0.13, p=0.02). Whole-brain vertex-wise analyses suggested that obesity PRS interacted with MetS to predict decreased cortical thickness in left rostral middle frontal gyrus (β=-0.40, p<0.001). Results suggest that PTSD, genetic variability, and MetS are related in a transactional fashion wherein obesity genetic risk increases stress-related metabolic pathology, and compounds the ill health effects of MetS on the brain. Genetic proclivity towards MetS should be considered in PTSD patients when prescribing psychotropic medications with adverse metabolic profiles. Results are consistent with a growing literature suggestive of PTSD-related accelerated aging. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Ergonomics contribution to chemical risks prevention: An ergotoxicological investigation of the effectiveness of coverall against plant pest risk in viticulture.

    PubMed

    Garrigou, Alain; Baldi, Isabelle; Le Frious, Patricia; Anselm, Rémy; Vallier, Martine

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present the contribution of a trans-disciplinary approach focused on ergonomics and chemical risk control. We shall more precisely discuss how such an approach carried out in the field of agricultural work has made it possible to highlight serious shortcomings in the effectiveness of the coveralls that are supposed to protect vineyard workers from pesticides. The study results, as well as the whistle-blow that followed have questioned the control and prevention measures used until then. The aforementioned trans-disciplinary approach gathers knowledge and methods from epidemiology, industrial hygiene, occupational health and safety and ergonomics. Ergonomics were central in the development of the approach as it connected task and activity analysis with contamination measurements. Lastly, the first results that were obtained have been confirmed and reused by the AFSSET (Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire Environnement et Travail, the French governmental agency in charge of environmental health and occupational health and safety issues) regarding the agricultural sector but also for all other situations in which workers use coveralls as protection against chemical risks.

  19. Health Risk Assessments of Waste Combustion Emissions Using Surrogate Analyte Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-01

    Several studies assessing currently available data include observations on chronic bronchitis, emphysema , newly reported asthma, self-reported...within three miles of burn pits did not increase the risk of chronic bronchitis, emphysema , newly reported asthma, or self- reported respiratory symptoms

  20. Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

    2016-07-19

    Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning.

  1. Parent-Focused Interventions: A Meta-Analytic Consideration of Risk and Outcome Categories.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Jennifer W.

    This study explored the potential of meta-analysis for assessing the efficacy of interventions designed for parents of young, environmentally at-risk children. Included in the sample were 232 evaluations of 282 parent-focused interventions implemented between 1965 and 1999; evaluations met 10 criteria, including the inclusion of a treatment and…

  2. GIS-based flood risk model evaluated by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sukcharoen, Tharapong; Weng, Jingnong; Teetat, Charoenkalunyuta

    2016-10-01

    Over the last 2-3 decades, the economy of many countries around the world has been developed rapidly but it was unbalanced development because of expecting on economic growth only. Meanwhile it lacked of effective planning in the use of natural resources. This can significantly induce climate change which is major cause of natural disaster. Hereby, Thailand has also suffered from natural disaster for ages. Especially, the flood which is most hazardous disaster in Thailand can annually result in the great loss of life and property, environment and economy. Since the flood management of country is inadequate efficiency. It is unable to support the flood analysis comprehensively. This paper applied Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision Making to create flood risk model at regional scale. Angthong province in Thailand was used as the study area. In practical process, Fuzzy logic technique has been used to improve specialist's assessment by implementing with Fuzzy membership because human decision is flawed under uncertainty then AHP technique was processed orderly. The hierarchy structure in this paper was categorized the spatial flood factors into two levels as following: 6 criteria (Meteorology, Geology, Topography, Hydrology, Human and Flood history) and 8 factors (Average Rainfall, Distance from Stream, Soil drainage capability, Slope, Elevation, Land use, Distance from road and Flooded area in the past). The validity of the pair-wise comparison in AHP was shown as C.R. value which indicated that the specialist judgment was reasonably consistent. FAHP computation result has shown that the first priority of criteria was Meteorology. In addition, the Rainfall was the most influencing factor for flooding. Finally, the output was displayed in thematic map of Angthong province with flood risk level processed by GIS tools. The map was classified into: High Risk, Moderate Risk and Low Risk (13.20%, 75.58%, and 11.22% of total area).

  3. An Analytical Framework for Flood Water Conservation Considering Forecast Uncertainty and Acceptable Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, W.; Zhang, C.

    2015-12-01

    Reservoir water levels are usually not allowed to exceed the flood limited water level (FLWL) during flood season, which neglects the meteorological and real-time forecast information and leads to the great waste of water resources. With the development of weather forecasting, hydrologic modeling, and hydro-climatic teleconnection, the streamflow forecast precision have improved a lot, which provides the technical support for the flood water utilization. This paper addresses how much flood water can be conserved for use after the flood season through the operation of reservoir based on uncertain forecast information by taking into account the residual flood control capacity (the difference between flood conveyance capacity and the expected inflow in a lead time). A two-stage model for dynamic control of the flood limited water level (the maximum allowed water level during the flood season, DC-FLWL) is established considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable flood risk. It is found that DC-FLWL is applicable when the reservoir inflow ranges from small to medium levels of the historical records, while both forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk in the downstream affect the feasible space of DC-FLWL. As forecast uncertainty increases (under a given risk level) or as acceptable risk level decreases (under a given forecast uncertainty level), the minimum required safety margin for flood control increases, and the chance for DC-FLWL decreases. The derived hedging rules from the modeling framework illustrate either the dominant role of water conservation or flood control or the tradeoff between the two objectives under different levels of forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk. These rules may provide useful guidelines for conserving water from flood, especially in the area with heavy water stress.

  4. Meta-analytical association between angiotensin-converting enzyme gene polymorphisms and sarcoidosis risk.

    PubMed

    Zhu, R; Bi, L Q; Kong, H; Tilley, S L; Wang, H; Xie, W P

    2015-04-17

    Previous reports identified an association between sarcoidosis and an insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism in angiotensin-converting enzyme. Our meta-analysis of articles published between March 1996 and June 2013 identified studies in the PubMed, EMBASE, and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases. We examined whether angiotensin-converting enzyme polymorphisms influence sarcoidosis susceptibility. The strength of the association between I/D polymorphisms and sarcoidosis risk was measured based on the odds ratio and 95% confidence interval. Analysis was based on recessive and dominant models. Ethnic subgroup analysis from 18 articles (1882 cases and 3066 controls) showed that DD homozygote carriers were at a slightly increased risk of sarcoidosis compared with II homozygotes and DI heterozygotes (P = 0.03). Comparison of DD plus DI vs II revealed no significant association with sarcoidosis in group and ethnic subgroup analysis. We found that the I/D polymorphism in the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene was not associated with a major risk of sarcoidosis.

  5. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

    PubMed Central

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

    2016-01-01

    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  6. Genetic risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder contributes to neurodevelopmental traits in the general population.

    PubMed

    Martin, Joanna; Hamshere, Marian L; Stergiakouli, Evangelia; O'Donovan, Michael C; Thapar, Anita

    2014-10-15

    Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be viewed as the extreme end of traits in the general population. Epidemiological and twin studies suggest that ADHD frequently co-occurs with and shares genetic susceptibility with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and ASD-related traits. The aims of this study were to determine whether a composite of common molecular genetic variants, previously found to be associated with clinically diagnosed ADHD, predicts ADHD and ASD-related traits in the general population. Polygenic risk scores were calculated in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) population sample (N = 8229) based on a discovery case-control genome-wide association study of childhood ADHD. Regression analyses were used to assess whether polygenic scores predicted ADHD traits and ASD-related measures (pragmatic language abilities and social cognition) in the ALSPAC sample. Polygenic scores were also compared in boys and girls endorsing any (rating ≥ 1) ADHD item (n = 3623). Polygenic risk for ADHD showed a positive association with ADHD traits (hyperactive-impulsive, p = .0039; inattentive, p = .037). Polygenic risk for ADHD was also negatively associated with pragmatic language abilities (p = .037) but not with social cognition (p = .43). In children with a rating ≥ 1 for ADHD traits, girls had a higher polygenic score than boys (p = .003). These findings provide molecular genetic evidence that risk alleles for the categorical disorder of ADHD influence hyperactive-impulsive and attentional traits in the general population. The results further suggest that common genetic variation that contributes to ADHD diagnosis may also influence ASD-related traits, which at their extreme are a characteristic feature of ASD. Copyright © 2014 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Screening for Chemical Contributions to Breast Cancer Risk: A Case Study for Chemical Safety Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Ackerman, Janet M.; Dairkee, Shanaz H.; Fenton, Suzanne E.; Johnson, Dale; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Osborne, Gwendolyn; Rudel, Ruthann A.; Solomon, Gina M.; Zeise, Lauren; Janssen, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    . Screening for chemical contributions to breast cancer risk: a case study for chemical safety evaluation. Environ Health Perspect 123:1255–1264; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408337 PMID:26032647

  8. The serotonin transporter gene and risk for alcohol dependence: a meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    McHugh, R Kathryn; Hofmann, Stefan G; Asnaani, Anu; Sawyer, Alice T; Otto, Michael W

    2010-04-01

    Previous studies have implicated a relationship between particular allelic variations of the serotonin transporter gene (5HTTLPR) and alcohol dependence. To provide a current estimate of the strength of this association, particularly in light of inconsistent results for 5HTTLPR, we conducted a meta-analytic review of the association between 5HTTLPR and a clinical diagnosis of alcohol dependence. Of 145 studies initially identified, 22 (including 8050 participants) met inclusion criteria. Results indicated that there was a significant albeit modest association between alcohol dependence diagnosis and the presence of at least 1 short allele (OR=1.15, 95% CI=1.01, 1.30, p<.05). Slightly more robust results were observed for participants who were homogeneous for the short allele (OR=1.21, 95% CI=1.02, 1.44, p<.05). These results were unrelated to sex and race/ethnicity of participants; however, the effect size was moderated by study sample size and publication year. Additionally, the fail-safe N analysis indicated potential publication bias. Therefore, although our review indicates that there is a significant association between 5HTTLPR and alcohol dependence diagnosis, this result should be interpreted with caution. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Contribution of higher risk genes and European admixture to Crohn's disease in African Americans

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Ming-Hsi; Okazaki, Toshihiko; Kugathasan, Subra; Cho, Judy H.; Isaacs, Kim L.; Lewis, James D.; Smoot, Duane T.; Valentine, John F.; Kader, Howard A.; Ford, Jean G.; Harris, Mary L.; Oliva-Hemker, Maria; Cuffari, Carmen; Torbenson, Michael S.; Duerr, Richard H.; Silverberg, Mark S.; Rioux, John D.; Taylor, Kent D.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Wu, Yuqiong; Datta, Lisa W.; Hooker, Stanley; Dassopoulos, Themistocles; Kittles, Rick A.; Kao, Linda W.H.; Brant, Steven R.

    2012-01-01

    Background & Aims African Americans (AA) are an admixed population of West African (WA) and European ancestry (EA). Crohn's disease (CD) susceptibility genes have not been established. We therefore evaluated the contribution of European admixture and major established risk genes to AA CD. Methods Ninety-seven admixture informative markers were genotyped for ancestry estimates using STRUCTURE. 354 AA CD cases and 354 ethnicity-matched controls were genotyped for total 21 SNPs in ATG16L1, NOD2, IBD5, IL23R and IRGM by TaqMan or direct sequencing. Association was evaluated by logistic regression, adjusted for ancestry. Results Mean EA was similar among the CD cases and controls (20.9% and 20.4, respectively, p=0.58). No significant admixture differences were observed among cases (211 to 227) stratified by phenotypic sub-classifications including onset, surgery, site, and behavior. CD was associated with NOD2 carrier (6.93% CD, 2.15% Controls, p = 0.007), ATG16L1 Thr300Ala (36.1% CD, 29.3% Controls, p=0.003), SLC22A4 and SLC22A5 (IBD5 locus) functional SNPs (L503F [10.6% CD, 7.6% Controls, p=0.05] and g-207c [41.3% CD, 35.7% Controls, p=0.03], respectively) and IL23R rs2201841 (18.2% CD, 13.8% Controls, p=0.03), but not IRGM variants nor three African ancestral NOD2 nonsynonymous variants. IBD5 risk was recessive. An all-minor allele IBD5 haplotype from EA was associated (p=0.05), whereas a more common haplotype isolating g-207c was not. Conclusions Specific functional gene variations significantly contribute to AA CD risk. Established NOD2, SLC22A4-A5, and ATG16L1 variants show increased CD risk, with IBD5 in recessive. Although CD is more common in whites, European admixture is similar among AA cases and controls. PMID:22411504

  10. Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parwatiningtyas, Diyan; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia; Marlina, Dwi; Wiratomo, Yogi

    2014-03-01

    Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.

  11. Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

    SciTech Connect

    Parwatiningtyas, Diyan E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Marlina, Dwi E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Wiratomo, Yogi E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com

    2014-03-24

    Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.

  12. Do neutrophil extracellular traps contribute to the heightened risk of thrombosis in inflammatory diseases?

    PubMed Central

    Rao, Ashish N; Kazzaz, Nayef M; Knight, Jason S

    2015-01-01

    Thrombotic events, both arterial and venous, are a major health concern worldwide. Further, autoimmune diseases, such as systemic lupus erythematosus, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis, and antiphospholipid syndrome, predispose to thrombosis, and thereby push the risk for these morbid events even higher. In recent years, neutrophils have been identified as important players in both arterial and venous thrombosis. Specifically, chromatin-based structures called neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) play a key role in activating the coagulation cascade, recruiting platelets, and serving as scaffolding upon which the thrombus can be assembled. At the same time, neutrophils and NETs are emerging as important mediators of pathogenic inflammation in the aforementioned autoimmune diseases. Here, we first review the general role of NETs in thrombosis. We then posit that exaggerated NET release contributes to the prothrombotic diatheses of systemic lupus erythematosus, ANCA-associated vasculitis, and antiphospholipid syndrome. PMID:26730289

  13. BIVARIATE LINKAGE CONFIRMS GENETIC CONTRIBUTION TO FETAL ORIGINS OF CHILDHOOD GROWTH AND CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK IN HISPANIC CHILDREN

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Birth weight has been shown to be associated with obesity and metabolic diseases in adulthood; however, the genetic contribution is still controversial. The objective of this analysis is to explore the genetic contribution to the relationship between birth weight and later risk for obesity and metab...

  14. Protective and risk factors for adolescent sleep: a meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Bartel, Kate A; Gradisar, Michael; Williamson, Paul

    2015-06-01

    Teenagers need sufficient sleep to function well daily, yet consolidated evidence advising which factors protect, or harm, adolescents' sleep is lacking. Forty-one studies, published between 2003 and February, 2014, were meta-analysed. Mean weighted r values were calculated to better understand the strength of protective and risk factors for 85,561 adolescents' (age range = 12-18 y) bedtime, sleep onset latency (SOL) and total sleep time (TST). Results showed good sleep hygiene and physical activity were associated with earlier bedtimes. Video gaming, phone, computer and internet use, and evening light related to delayed bedtimes. Good sleep hygiene negatively correlated with sleep latency. Alternatively, sleep latency lengthened as a negative family environment increased. Tobacco, computer use, evening light, a negative family environment and caffeine were associated with decreased total sleep, whereas good sleep hygiene and parent-set bedtimes related to longer sleep length. Good sleep hygiene appears to be protective, whereas a negative home environment and evening light appear to be risk factors. Cautious use of technology (other than television), caffeine, tobacco and alcohol should be considered. These factors, along with pre-sleep worry, are likely to have some negative impact on sleep. Parent-set bedtimes and physical activity may be beneficial. Future research directions are discussed.

  15. A meta-analytic review of prevalence for Brugada ECG patterns and the risk for death

    PubMed Central

    Quan, Xiao-Qing; Li, Song; Liu, Rui; Zheng, Kai; Wu, Xiao-Fen; Tang, Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: The prevalence of Brugada ECG pattern (BrEP) is different in different regions, and its mean prevalence over the world is unknown. The risk of people with BrEP for death remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to determine the prevalence of BrEP and risk ratio (RR) for death. Methods: Relevant studies published between July 1, 2000 and August 20, 2016, which contain prevalence and RR for all-cause death and cardiac death, were included. The prevalence and RR are analyzed using meta-analysis. Results: We finally retrieved 24 studies of the prevalence for BrEP and 5 studies of the RR for all-cause death and cardiac death. The worldwide mean prevalence of BrEP is 0.4%, with highest in Asia (0.9%) and lowest in North America (0.2%). Additionally, the mean prevalence in male is 0.9%, whereas it is 0.1% in female. The RR of BrEP for all-cause death is 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.45–1.37), and for cardiac death it is 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.23–3.66). Conclusion: The prevalence of BrEP is about 0.4% around the world with different prevalence in region and sex. Our study shows that BrEP may not be taken as a predictor of all-cause death and cardiac death. PMID:27977610

  16. Age as a Risk Factor for Burnout Syndrome in Nursing Professionals: A Meta-Analytic Study.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Urquiza, José L; Vargas, Cristina; De la Fuente, Emilia I; Fernández-Castillo, Rafael; Cañadas-De la Fuente, Guillermo A

    2017-04-01

    Although past research has highlighted the possibility of a direct relationship between the age of nursing professionals and burnout syndrome, results have been far from conclusive. The aim of this study was to conduct a wider analysis of the influence of age on the three dimensions of burnout syndrome (emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and personal accomplishment) in nurses. We performed a meta-analysis of 51 publications extracted from health sciences and psychology databases that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There were 47 reports of information on emotional exhaustion in 50 samples, 39 reports on depersonalization for 42 samples, and 31 reports on personal accomplishment in 34 samples. The mean effect sizes indicated that younger age was a significant factor in the emotional exhaustion and depersonalization of nurses, although it was somewhat less influential in the dimension of personal accomplishment. Because of heterogeneity in the effect sizes, moderating variables that might explain the association between age and burnout were also analyzed. Gender, marital status, and study characteristics moderated the relationship between age and burnout and may be crucial for the identification of high-risk groups. More research is needed on other variables for which there were only a small number of studies. Identification of burnout risk factors will facilitate establishment of burnout prevention programs for nurses. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Risk Factors Contributing to Type 2 Diabetes and Recent Advances in the Treatment and Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yanling; Ding, Yanping; Tanaka, Yoshimasa; Zhang, Wen

    2014-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes is a serious and common chronic disease resulting from a complex inheritance-environment interaction along with other risk factors such as obesity and sedentary lifestyle. Type 2 diabetes and its complications constitute a major worldwide public health problem, affecting almost all populations in both developed and developing countries with high rates of diabetes-related morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been increasing exponentially, and a high prevalence rate has been observed in developing countries and in populations undergoing “westernization” or modernization. Multiple risk factors of diabetes, delayed diagnosis until micro- and macro-vascular complications arise, life-threatening complications, failure of the current therapies, and financial costs for the treatment of this disease, make it necessary to develop new efficient therapy strategies and appropriate prevention measures for the control of type 2 diabetes. Herein, we summarize our current understanding about the epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, the roles of genes, lifestyle and other factors contributing to rapid increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The core aims are to bring forward the new therapy strategies and cost-effective intervention trials of type 2 diabetes. PMID:25249787

  18. The Contribution of Differential Opioid Responsiveness to Identification of Opioid Risk in Chronic Pain Patients

    PubMed Central

    Bruehl, Stephen; Burns, John W.; Passik, Steven D.; Gupta, Rajnish; Buvanendran, Asokumar; Chont, Melissa; Schuster, Erik; Orlowska, Daria; France, Christopher R.

    2015-01-01

    The Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised (SOAPP-R) predicts increased risk of opioid misuse in chronic pain patients. We evaluated whether higher SOAPP-R scores are associated with greater opioid reinforcing properties, potentially contributing to their predictive utility. Across two counterbalanced laboratory sessions, 55 chronic low back pain sufferers completed the SOAPP-R at baseline, and measures of back pain intensity, evoked pain responsiveness (thermal, ischemic), and subjective opioid effects after receiving intravenous morphine (0.08 mg/kg) or saline placebo. Morphine effect measures were derived for all outcomes reflecting the difference between morphine and placebo condition values. Higher SOAPP-R scores were significantly associated with greater desire to take morphine again, less feeling down and feeling bad, and greater reductions in sensory low back pain intensity following morphine administration. This latter effect was due primarily to SOAPP-R content assessing medication-specific attitudes and behavior. Individuals exceeding the clinical cutoff (18 or more) on the SOAPP-R exhibited significantly greater morphine liking, desire to take morphine again, and feeling sedated; lower feeling bad; and greater reductions in sensory low back pain following morphine. The SOAPP-R may predict elevated opioid risk in part by tapping into individual differences in opioid reinforcing effects. PMID:25892658

  19. Contribution of double strand break repair gene XRCC3 genotypes to nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Liu, Juhn-Cherng; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Hsu, Chin-Mu; Chang, Wen-Shin; Li, Chi-Yuan; Liu, Shih-Ping; Shen, Wu-Chung; Bau, Da-Tian

    2015-02-28

    The DNA double strand break repair protein XRCC3 plays a central role in removing double strand breaks from the genome and defects in cellular repair capacity is closely related to human cancer initiation. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the contribution of XRCC3 genotypes to individual nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) susceptibility. In this hospital-based population research, the genotyping and analyzing of XRCC3 rs1799794, rs45603942, rs861530, rs3212057, rs1799796, rs861539, rs28903081 in a large Taiwanese population was performed. Totally, 176 NPC patients and 880 age- and gender-matched healthy controls were genotyped and analyzed by PCR-RFLP method. The results showed that there was a differential distribution among NPC and control subjects in the genotypic (P = 0.000488) and allelic (P = 0.0002) frequencies of XRCC3 rs861539. As for the gene-environment interaction, we have firstly provided evidence showing that there is an obvious joint effect of XRCC3 rs861539 CT and TT genotypes with individual smoking habits on increased NPC risk. In conclusion, the T allele of XRCC3 rs861539, interacts with smoking habit in increasing NPC risk, may be an early detection marker for NPC.

  20. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  1. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000.

    PubMed

    Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí A; Stott, Peter A; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno G J; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles R

    2011-02-17

    Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

  2. A Common Variant in the PTPN11 Gene Contributes to the Risk of Tetralogy of Fallot

    PubMed Central

    Goodship, Judith A.; Hall, Darroch; Topf, Ana; Mamasoula, Chrysovalanto; Griffin, Helen; Rahman, Thahira J.; Glen, Elise; Tan, Huay; Doza, Julian Palomino; Relton, Caroline L.; Bentham, Jamie; Bhattacharya, Shoumo; Cosgrove, Catherine; Brook, David; Granados-Riveron, Javier; Bu’Lock, Frances A.; O’Sullivan, John; Stuart, A. Graham; Parsons, Jonathan; Cordell, Heather J.; Keavney, Bernard

    2015-01-01

    Background Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) is the commonest cyanotic form of congenital heart disease. In 80% of cases, TOF behaves as a complex genetic condition exhibiting significant heritability. As yet, no common genetic variants influencing TOF risk have been robustly identified. Methods and Results Two hundred and seven haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms in 22 candidate genes were genotyped in a test cohort comprising 362 nonsyndromic British white patients with TOF together with 717 unaffected parents of patients and 183 unrelated healthy controls. Single nucleotide polymorphisms with suggestive evidence of association in the test cohort (P<0.01) were taken forward for genotyping in an independent replication cohort comprising 392 cases of TOF, 218 unaffected parents of patients, and 1319 controls. Significant association was observed for 1 single nucleotide polymorphism, rs11066320 in the PTPN11 gene, in both the test and the replication cohort. Genotype at rs11066320 was associated with a per-allele odds ratio of 1.34 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 1.52; P=2.9×10−6) in the total cohort of TOF cases and controls; this remained highly significant after Bonferroni correction for 207 analyses (corrected P=0.00061). Genotype at rs11066320 was responsible for a population-attributable risk of TOF of approximately 10%. Conclusions Common variation in the linkage disequilibrium block including the PTPN11 gene contributes to the risk of nonsyndromic TOF. Rare mutations in PTPN11 are known to cause the autosomal dominant condition Noonan syndrome, which includes congenital heart disease, by upregulating Ras/mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling. Our results suggest a role for milder perturbations in PTPN11 function in sporadic, nonsyndromic congenital heart disease. PMID:22503907

  3. A common variant in the PTPN11 gene contributes to the risk of tetralogy of Fallot.

    PubMed

    Goodship, Judith A; Hall, Darroch; Topf, Ana; Mamasoula, Chrysovalanto; Griffin, Helen; Rahman, Thahira J; Glen, Elise; Tan, Huay; Palomino Doza, Julian; Relton, Caroline L; Bentham, Jamie; Bhattacharya, Shoumo; Cosgrove, Catherine; Brook, David; Granados-Riveron, Javier; Bu'Lock, Frances A; O'Sullivan, John; Stuart, A Graham; Parsons, Jonathan; Cordell, Heather J; Keavney, Bernard

    2012-06-01

    Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) is the commonest cyanotic form of congenital heart disease. In 80% of cases, TOF behaves as a complex genetic condition exhibiting significant heritability. As yet, no common genetic variants influencing TOF risk have been robustly identified. Two hundred and seven haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms in 22 candidate genes were genotyped in a test cohort comprising 362 nonsyndromic British white patients with TOF together with 717 unaffected parents of patients and 183 unrelated healthy controls. Single nucleotide polymorphisms with suggestive evidence of association in the test cohort (P<0.01) were taken forward for genotyping in an independent replication cohort comprising 392 cases of TOF, 218 unaffected parents of patients, and 1319 controls. Significant association was observed for 1 single nucleotide polymorphism, rs11066320 in the PTPN11 gene, in both the test and the replication cohort. Genotype at rs11066320 was associated with a per-allele odds ratio of 1.34 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 1.52; P=2.9 × 10(-6)) in the total cohort of TOF cases and controls; this remained highly significant after Bonferroni correction for 207 analyses (corrected P=0.00061). Genotype at rs11066320 was responsible for a population-attributable risk of TOF of approximately 10%. Common variation in the linkage disequilibrium block including the PTPN11 gene contributes to the risk of nonsyndromic TOF. Rare mutations in PTPN11 are known to cause the autosomal dominant condition Noonan syndrome, which includes congenital heart disease, by upregulating Ras/mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling. Our results suggest a role for milder perturbations in PTPN11 function in sporadic, nonsyndromic congenital heart disease.

  4. The efficacy of violence prediction: a meta-analytic comparison of nine risk assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C P; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-09-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their predictive efficacies for violence. The effect sizes were extracted from 28 original reports published between 1999 and 2008, which assessed the predictive accuracy of more than one tool. We used a within-subject design to improve statistical power and multilevel regression models to disentangle random effects of variation between studies and tools and to adjust for study features. All 9 tools and their subscales predicted violence at about the same moderate level of predictive efficacy with the exception of Psychopathy Checklist--Revised (PCL-R) Factor 1, which predicted violence only at chance level among men. Approximately 25% of the total variance was due to differences between tools, whereas approximately 85% of heterogeneity between studies was explained by methodological features (age, length of follow-up, different types of violent outcome, sex, and sex-related interactions). Sex-differentiated efficacy was found for a small number of the tools. If the intention is only to predict future violence, then the 9 tools are essentially interchangeable; the selection of which tool to use in practice should depend on what other functions the tool can perform rather than on its efficacy in predicting violence. The moderate level of predictive accuracy of these tools suggests that they should not be used solely for some criminal justice decision making that requires a very high level of accuracy such as preventive detention.

  5. Pre-Analytical Components of Risk in Four Branches of Clinical Laboratory in Romania--Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    David, Remona E; Dobreanu, Minodora

    2016-01-01

    Development of quality measurement principles is a strategic point for each clinical laboratory. Preexamination process is the most critical and the most difficult to be managed. The aim of this study is to identify, quantify, and monitor the nonconformities of the pre-analytical process using quality indicators that can affect the patient's health safety in four different locations of a Romanian private clinical laboratory. The study group consisted of all the analysis requests received by the departments of biochemistry, hematology, and coagulation from January through March 2015. In order to collect the pre-analytical nonconformities, we created a "Risk Budget", using the entries from the "Evidence notebook--non-conform samples" from the above mentioned departments. The laboratory established the quality indicators by means of the risk management technique in order to identify and control the sources of errors, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analyses), which had been implemented and monitored for its purposes and special needs. For the assessment of the control level over the processes, the results were transformed on the Six Sigma scale, using the Westgard calculation method and being obtained in this way the frequency with which an error may occur. (https://www.westgard. com/six-sigma-calculators.htm). The obtained results prove that the quantification and monitoring of the indicators can be a control instrument for the pre-analytic activities. The calculation of the Six Sigma value adds extra information to the study because it allows the detection of the processes which need improvement (Sigma value higher than 4 represents a well controlled process). The highest rates were observed for the hemolyzed and the lipemic samples, in the department of biochemistry and hemolyzed, insufficient sample volume, or clotted samples for the department of hematology and coagulation. Significant statistical differences between laboratories participating in the study have

  6. Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

    PubMed Central

    Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

  7. Predicting rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element models: development and preliminary evaluation of a probabilistic analytical framework.

    PubMed

    Forman, Jason L; Kent, Richard W; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5-7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992-2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction.

  8. Does network topology influence systemic risk contribution? A perspective from the industry indices in Chinese stock market

    PubMed Central

    Long, Haiming; Tang, Nengyu

    2017-01-01

    This study considers the effect of an industry’s network topology on its systemic risk contribution to the stock market using data from the CSI 300 two-tier industry indices from the Chinese stock market. We first measure industry’s conditional-value-at-risk (CoVaR) and the systemic risk contribution (ΔCoVaR) using the fitted time-varying t-copula function. The network of the stock industry is established based on dynamic conditional correlations with the minimum spanning tree. Then, we investigate the connection characteristics and topology of the network. Finally, we utilize seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SUR) of panel data to analyze the relationship between network topology of the stock industry and the industry’s systemic risk contribution. The results show that the systemic risk contribution of small-scale industries such as real estate, food and beverage, software services, and durable goods and clothing, is higher than that of large-scale industries, such as banking, insurance and energy. Industries with large betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and clustering coefficient and small node occupancy layer are associated with greater systemic risk contribution. In addition, further analysis using a threshold model confirms that the results are robust. PMID:28683130

  9. Does network topology influence systemic risk contribution? A perspective from the industry indices in Chinese stock market.

    PubMed

    Long, Haiming; Zhang, Ji; Tang, Nengyu

    2017-01-01

    This study considers the effect of an industry's network topology on its systemic risk contribution to the stock market using data from the CSI 300 two-tier industry indices from the Chinese stock market. We first measure industry's conditional-value-at-risk (CoVaR) and the systemic risk contribution (ΔCoVaR) using the fitted time-varying t-copula function. The network of the stock industry is established based on dynamic conditional correlations with the minimum spanning tree. Then, we investigate the connection characteristics and topology of the network. Finally, we utilize seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SUR) of panel data to analyze the relationship between network topology of the stock industry and the industry's systemic risk contribution. The results show that the systemic risk contribution of small-scale industries such as real estate, food and beverage, software services, and durable goods and clothing, is higher than that of large-scale industries, such as banking, insurance and energy. Industries with large betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and clustering coefficient and small node occupancy layer are associated with greater systemic risk contribution. In addition, further analysis using a threshold model confirms that the results are robust.

  10. Ecotoxicological and analytical assessment of hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and application to ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Saterbak, A.; Toy, R.J.; Wong, D.C.L.; McMain, B.J.; Williams, M.P.; Dorn, P.B.; Brzuzy, L.P.; Chai, E.Y.; Salanitro, J.P.

    1999-07-01

    Ecotoxicological assessments of contaminated soil aim to understand the effect of introduced chemicals on the soil flora and fauna. Ecotoxicity test methods were developed and conducted on hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and on adjacent uncontaminated control soils from eight field locations. Tests included 7-d, 14-d, and chronic survival tests and reproduction assays for the earthworm (Eisenia fetida) and seed germination, root length, and plant growth assays for corn, lettuce, mustard, and wheat. Species-specific responses were observed with no-observed effect concentrations (NOECs) ranging from <1 to 100% contaminated soil. The 14-d earthworm survival NOEC was equal to or greater than the reproduction NOEC values for numbers of cocoons and juveniles, which were similar to one another. Cocoon and juvenile production varied among the control soils. Germination and root length NOECs for mustard and lettuce were less than NOECs for corn and wheat. Root length NOECs were similar to or less than seed germination NOECs. Statistically significant correlations for earthworm survival and seed germination as a function of hydrocarbon measurements were found. The 14-d earthworm survival and the seed germination tests are recommended for use in the context of a risk-based framework for the ecological assessment of contaminated sites.

  11. Contribution of DNA Repair Xeroderma Pigmentosum Group D Genotypes to Colorectal Cancer Risk in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Chang, Wen-Shin; Yueh, Te-Cheng; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Ji, Hong-Xue; Wu, Cheng-Nan; Wang, Shou-Cheng; Lai, Yi-Liang; Hsu, Shih-Wei; Hsieh, Ming-Hao; Hsiao, Chieh-Lun; Hung, Yi-Wen; Shih, Tzu-Ching; Bau, Da-Tian

    2016-04-01

    It has been previously proposed that genetic variations on DNA repair genes confer susceptibility to cancer and the DNA repair gene Xeroderma Pigmentosum Group D (XPD) is thought to play the role of a helicase during excision repair and transcription. We investigated three genotypes of XPD, at promoter -114 (rs3810366), Asp312Asn (rs1799793) and Lys751Gln (rs13181), regarding their association with colorectal cancer susceptibility in a Taiwanese population. In total, 362 patients with colorectal cancer and 362 gender- and age-matched healthy controls were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP), and their XPD genotypes' association with colorectal cancer risk was investigated. The genotypes of XPD Asp312Asn (p=0.2493), Lys751Gln (p=0.7547) and promoter -114 (p=0.8702), were not associated with susceptibility for colorectal cancer. The Chi-square test revealed that the variant alleles of XPD Asp312Asn, Lys751Gln and promoter -114 was not associated with susceptibility for colorectal cancer either [p=0.1330, 0.3888 and 0.8740; odds ratio (OR)=1.20, 0.83 and 0.98; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)=0.95-1.52, 0.54-1.27 and 0.80-1.21, respectively]. The risk of A/G and A/A genotypes have no association with cancer risk among non-alcohol drinkers (OR=1.24, 95%, CI=0.90-1.72, p=0.2103) or alcohol drinkers (OR=1.51, 95% CI=0.64-3.55, p=0.4648). There exists no obvious contribution of XPD genotypes to tumor size (p=0.3531), location (p=0.3006) and lymph node metastasis (p=0.1061). Asp312Asn, Lys751Gln and promoter -114 of the XPD gene were not found to be adequate predictive markers for colorectal cancer risk in Taiwan. Copyright© 2016 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  12. The town of Cabar, Croatia, a high risk area for multiple sclerosis--analytic epidemiology of dietary factors.

    PubMed

    Perković, Olivio; Jurjević, Ante; Rudez, Josip; Antoncić, Igor; Bralić, Marina; Kapović, Miljenko

    2010-04-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is demyelization disease of central nervous system of unidentified causes. Analytic epidemiological research of 19 patients, clinically approved cases of MS and 25 controls, autochthonic inhabitants of town of Cabar, Croatia, the high-risk zone for the disease, was made. The research plan included case-control investigation--the "door to door" questionnaire--about nutrition habits. An odds ratio (OR) was calculated for all the factors which were more frequently found in the patients than in the controls, and vice versa. The variables that were connected with significant risk for MS in the town of Cabar included: alcohol consumption (p = 0.05), animal fats/dried meat products consumption (p = 0.007), nitrate salting (p = 0.03), strong spices (p = 0.007), mixed bread (p = 0.002), oat and oat products consumption (p = 0.0075). No connection was found with regular consumption of vegetables and fruit (p = 0.009), blue fresh fish (p = 0.028), other fresh fish (p = 0.03), freshwater fish (p = 0.002), canned fish (p = 0.004), dormouse meat (p = 0.007), air-dried meat products (p = 0.004) and using the water from water supply (p = 0.011). In the town of Cabar nutritional customs, primarily food rich in animal fats, alcohol-abuse, and oat consumption could have an influence on MS pathogenesis in genetically inclined individuals.

  13. Characterization of archaeological burnt bones: contribution of a new analytical protocol based on derivative FTIR spectroscopy and curve fitting of the nu1nu3 PO4 domain.

    PubMed

    Lebon, M; Reiche, I; Fröhlich, F; Bahain, J-J; Falguères, C

    2008-12-01

    Derivative Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and curve fitting have been used to investigate the effect of a thermal treatment on the nu(1)nu(3) PO(4) domain of modern bones. This method was efficient for identifying mineral matter modifications during heating. In particular, the 961, 1022, 1061, and 1092 cm(-1) components show an important wavenumber shift between 120 and 700 degrees C, attributed to the decrease of the distortions induced by the removal of CO(3)(2-) and HPO(4)(2-) ions from the mineral lattice. The so-called 1030/1020 ratio was used to evaluate crystalline growth above 600 degrees C. The same analytical protocol was applied on Magdalenian fossil bones from the Bize-Tournal Cave (France). Although the band positions seem to have been affected by diagenetic processes, a wavenumber index--established by summing of the 961, 1022, and 1061 cm(-1) peak positions--discriminated heated bones better than the 1030/1020 ratio, and the splitting factor frequently used to identify burnt bones in an archaeological context. This study suggest that the combination of derivative and curve-fitting analysis may afford a sensitive evaluation of the maximum temperature reached, and thus contribute to the fossil-derived knowledge of human activities related to the use of fire.

  14. Secondary Use and Analysis of Big Data Collected for Patient Care. Contribution from the IMIA Working Group on Data Mining and Big Data Analytics.

    PubMed

    Martin-Sanchez, F J; Aguiar-Pulido, V; Lopez-Campos, G H; Peek, N; Sacchi, L

    2017-05-08

    To identify common methodological challenges and review relevant initiatives related to the re-use of patient data collected in routine clinical care, as well as to analyze the economic benefits derived from the secondary use of this data. Through the use of several examples, this article aims to provide a glimpse into the different areas of application, namely clinical research, genomic research, study of environmental factors, and population and health services research. This paper describes some of the informatics methods and Big Data resources developed in this context, such as electronic phenotyping, clinical research networks, biorepositories, screening data banks, and wide association studies. Lastly, some of the potential limitations of these approaches are discussed, focusing on confounding factors and data quality. A series of literature searches in main bibliographic databases have been conducted in order to assess the extent to which existing patient data has been repurposed for research. This contribution from the IMIA working group on "Data mining and Big Data analytics" focuses on the literature published during the last two years, covering the timeframe since the working group's last survey. Although most of the examples of secondary use of patient data lie in the arena of clinical and health services research, we have started to witness other important applications, particularly in the area of genomic research and the study of health effects of environmental factors. Further research is needed to characterize the economic impact of secondary use across the broad spectrum of translational research.

  15. Matrix Metalloproteinase-1 Genotype Contributes to the Risk of Non-solid Tumor in Childhood Leukemia.

    PubMed

    Pei, Jen-Sheng; Hsu, Pei-Chen; Chou, An-Kuo; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Chang, Wen-Shin; Hsiao, Chieh-Lun; Hsu, Yuan-Nian; Cheng, Shun-Ping; Bau, DA-Tian

    2016-10-01

    Up-regulation of metalloproteinase (MMPs) proteins have been shown in various types of solid cancers and the genotype of MMP1 has been associated with the risk of solid cancers. However, the contribution of MMP1 genotype to leukemia has never been investigated to our knowledge. Therefore, in this study we aimed to evaluate the contribution of the genotypic variants in the promoter region of MMP1 to childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) risk in Taiwan. In this case-control study, 266 patients with childhood ALL and 266 non-cancer controls were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism methodology. The distribution of 2G/2G, 1G/2G and 1G/1G for MMP1 promoter rs1799750 genotype was 49.2%, 39.5% and 11.3% in the childhood ALL group and 36.8%, 43.6% and 19.5% in the non-cancer control group, respectively (p for trend=0.0046), significantly differentially distributed between childhood ALL and control groups. The carrier comparisons in dominant and recessive models also support the findings that 1G appears to be the protective allele in childhood ALL. In genotype and gender interaction analysis, it was found that boys carrying the MMP1 rs1799750 1G/2G or 1G/1G genotypes had lower odds ratios(ORs) of 0.68 and 0.43 [95% confidence intervals (CI)=0.47-0.98 and 0.26-0.73, p=0.0395 and 0.0013, respectively] for childhood ALL than those carrying the 2G/2G genotype. Analysis of genotype inaction with age of onset age showed those aged less than 3.5 years at onset carrying the 1G/2G or 1G/1G genotypes had lower ORs (0.0183 and 0.0004, respectively) for childhood ALL, but there was no such difference for those having an age at onset of 3.5 years or more. Our results indicate that the MMP1 rs1799750 1G allele is a protective biomarker for childhood ALL. Copyright© 2016 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  16. Does shared genetic risk contribute to the co-occurrence of eating disorders and suicidality?

    PubMed

    Wade, Tracey D; Fairweather-Schmidt, A Kate; Zhu, Gu; Martin, Nicholas G

    2015-09-01

    There is a high level of co-occurrence of suicidality with eating disorders (EDs) but the reason for this is unknown. To test the hypothesis that suicidality and EDs share genetic risk contributing to the expression of both phenotypes. Female twins (N = 1,002) from the Australian Twin Registry, aged 28-40 years, were interviewed with diagnostic interviews. Lifetime diagnostic information relating to eating disorders [anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder, and purging disorder (PD)], suicidality (ranging transitory thoughts to suicide attempts), and major depression. Any suicidal thoughts were reported by 24% of the sample, but prevalence of lifetime suicidality among female twins with EDs was much higher (43%), presence of an ED diagnosis more than doubling likelihood of suicidality (OR = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.63-3.31). AN and BN conveyed greatest risk of suicidality (OR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.06-3.87; OR = 3.97, 95% CI: 2.01-7.85, respectively). Twin phenotype correlations showed monozygotic twins had uniformly higher estimates than dizygotic counterparts. A trivariate Cholesky model indicated a common genetic influence on suicidality and ED phenotypes (but not depression), and no nonshared environmental source. Both cross twin phenotypic correlations and genetic modeling infer a common genetic pathway for suicidality and EDs, but further investigation is needed to elucidate whether this may constitute emotional dysregulation or other temperament-linked factors. Study findings also indicate that ED clients must be routinely assessed for presence of suicidality, independent of depression status. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Depression and Anxiety Prevention Based on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for At-Risk Adolescents: A Meta-Analytic Review.

    PubMed

    Rasing, Sanne P A; Creemers, Daan H M; Janssens, Jan M A M; Scholte, Ron H J

    2017-01-01

    Depression and anxiety disorders are among the most common mental disorders during adolescence. During this life phase, the incidence of these clinical disorders rises dramatically, and even more adolescents suffer from symptoms of depression or anxiety that are just below the clinical threshold. Both clinical and subclinical levels of depression or anxiety symptoms are related to decreased functioning in various areas, such as social and academic functioning. Prevention of depression and anxiety in adolescents is therefore imperative. We conducted a meta-analytic review of the effects of school-based and community-based prevention programs that are based on cognitive behavioral therapy with the primary goal preventing depression, anxiety, or both in high risk adolescents. Articles were obtained by searching databases and hand searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. The selection process yielded 32 articles in the meta-analyses. One article reported on two studies and three articles reported on both depression and anxiety. This resulted in a total of 36 studies, 23 on depression and 13 on anxiety. For depression prevention aimed at high risk adolescents, meta-analysis showed a small effect of prevention programs directly after the intervention, but no effect at 3-6 months and at 12 months follow-up. For anxiety prevention aimed at high risk adolescents, no short-term effect was found, nor at 12 months follow-up. Three to six months after the preventive intervention, symptoms of anxiety were significantly decreased. Although effects on depression and anxiety symptoms were small and temporary, current findings cautiously suggest that depression and anxiety prevention programs based on CBT might have small effects on mental health of adolescents. However, it also indicates that there is still much to be gained for prevention programs. Current findings and possibilities for future research are discussed in order to further improve the effectiveness

  18. Mentoring Programs to Affect Delinquency and Associated Outcomes of Youth At-Risk: A Comprehensive Meta-Analytic Reviewi

    PubMed Central

    Tolan, Patrick H.; Henry, David B.; Schoeny, Michael S.; Lovegrove, Peter; Nichols, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To conduct a meta-analytic review of selective and indicated mentoring interventions for effects for youth at risk on delinquency and key associated outcomes (aggression, drug use, academic functioning). We also undertook the first systematic evaluation of intervention implementation features and organization and tested for effects of theorized key processes of mentor program effects. Methods Campbell Collaboration review inclusion criteria and procedures were used to search and evaluate the literature. Criteria included a sample defined as at-risk for delinquency due to individual behavior such as aggression or conduct problems or environmental characteristics such as residence in high-crime community. Studies were required to be random assignment or strong quasi-experimental design. Of 163 identified studies published 1970 - 2011, 46 met criteria for inclusion. Results Mean effects sizes were significant and positive for each outcome category (ranging form d =.11 for Academic Achievement to d = .29 for Aggression). Heterogeneity in effect sizes was noted for all four outcomes. Stronger effects resulted when mentor motivation was professional development but not by other implementation features. Significant improvements in effects were found when advocacy and emotional support mentoring processes were emphasized. Conclusions This popular approach has significant impact on delinquency and associated outcomes for youth at-risk for delinquency. While evidencing some features may relate to effects, the body of literature is remarkably lacking in details about specific program features and procedures. This persistent state of limited reporting seriously impedes understanding about how mentoring is beneficial and ability to maximize its utility. PMID:25386111

  19. An integrated approach of analytical network process and fuzzy based spatial decision making systems applied to landslide risk mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abedi Gheshlaghi, Hassan; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

    2017-09-01

    Landslides in mountainous areas render major damages to residential areas, roads, and farmlands. Hence, one of the basic measures to reduce the possible damage is by identifying landslide-prone areas through landslide mapping by different models and methods. The purpose of conducting this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a combination of two models of the analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in landslide risk mapping in the Azarshahr Chay basin in northwest Iran. After field investigations and a review of research literature, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides including slope, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, land use, vegetation density, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to roads, distance to rivers, along with a map of the distribution of occurred landslides were prepared in GIS environment. Then, fuzzy logic was used for weighting sub-criteria, and the ANP was applied to weight the criteria. Next, they were integrated based on GIS spatial analysis methods and the landslide risk map was produced. Evaluating the results of this study by using receiver operating characteristic curves shows that the hybrid model designed by areas under the curve 0.815 has good accuracy. Also, according to the prepared map, a total of 23.22% of the area, amounting to 105.38 km2, is in the high and very high-risk class. Results of this research are great of importance for regional planning tasks and the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.

  20. Identification of "At Risk" Students Using Learning Analytics: The Ethical Dilemmas of Intervention Strategies in a Higher Education Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawson, Celeste; Beer, Colin; Rossi, Dolene; Moore, Teresa; Fleming, Julie

    2016-01-01

    Learning analytics is an emerging field in which sophisticated analytic tools are used to inform and improve learning and teaching. Researchers within a regional university in Australia identified an association between interaction and student success in online courses and subsequently developed a learning analytics system aimed at informing…

  1. Identification of "At Risk" Students Using Learning Analytics: The Ethical Dilemmas of Intervention Strategies in a Higher Education Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawson, Celeste; Beer, Colin; Rossi, Dolene; Moore, Teresa; Fleming, Julie

    2016-01-01

    Learning analytics is an emerging field in which sophisticated analytic tools are used to inform and improve learning and teaching. Researchers within a regional university in Australia identified an association between interaction and student success in online courses and subsequently developed a learning analytics system aimed at informing…

  2. Relative Contribution of Risk Factors for Early-Onset Myopia in Young Asian Children.

    PubMed

    Chua, Sharon Yu Lin; Ikram, M Kamran; Tan, Chuen Seng; Lee, Yung Seng; Ni, Yu; Shirong, Cai; Gluckman, Peter D; Chong, Yap-Seng; Yap, Fabian; Wong, Tien-Yin; Ngo, Cheryl S; Saw, Seang-Mei

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the associations of near work, outdoor activity, and anthropometric risk factors with early-onset myopia in Singaporean preschool children. Pregnant women who attended their first-trimester clinic at two major maternity units were recruited for the GUSTO birth cohort (n = 1236). Cycloplegic autorefraction and axial length (AL) were obtained in 3-year-old children (n = 572). Parents completed detailed questionnaires on parental myopia, near work, and outdoor activities when the child was 2 years of age. Height and weight were measured in the children at various time points from birth to 3 years of age. Among the cohort of 572 children, 35 children (6.1%) had early-onset myopia. In multivariable regression models, compared to children whose parents were not myopic, those with two myopic parents were more likely to have a more myopic spherical equivalent (SE) (regression coefficient: -0.36; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.61 to -0.11) and longer AL (regression coefficient: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10-0.39) and more likely to have myopia (odds ratio [OR] = 4.8; 95% CI: 1.4-16.6). Neither near work nor outdoor activity was associated with SE, AL, and myopia. Taller children were found to have longer AL at birth and at 12, 24, and 36 months, but there were no associations with SE. Genetic factors may have a greater contribution to early development of refractive error compared to environmental factors.

  3. Safe caves and dangerous forests? Predation risk may contribute to salamander colonization of subterranean habitats.

    PubMed

    Salvidio, Sebastiano; Palumbi, Giulia; Romano, Antonio; Costa, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Recent studies suggest that many organisms actively colonize the subterranean environment to avoid climatic stress, exploit new ecological opportunities and reduce competition and predation. Terrestrial salamanders are known to colonize the more stable subterranean habitats mainly to escape external climatic extremes, while the role of predation avoidance remains untested. To better understand the importance of predation, we used clay models of the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii to compare the predation occurring in woodland and subterranean habitats. Models were positioned in three forests and in three caves in NW Italy. One-hundred eighty-four models were retrieved from the field and 59 (32%) were attacked by predators. Models were attacked on their head more often than expected by chance and, therefore, were perceived by predators as real prey items. In the woodlands, clay models showed a four-time higher probability of being attacked in comparison to caves, suggesting a different level of potential predation risk in these surface habitats. These findings are one of the first experimental evidences that, in terrestrial ecosystems, predation avoidance may contribute to the salamander underground colonization process.

  4. Listening to Our Gut: Contribution of Gut Microbiota and Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Pathogenesis.

    PubMed

    Li, Daniel; Kirsop, Jennifer; Tang, W H Wilson

    2015-09-01

    What we understand about diabetes from decades of genetics research is now being supplemented with exciting new evidence based on a better understanding of how one of the biggest "environmental" factors the body is exposed to is influencing the pathogenesis of disease. The recent discovery that certain dietary nutrients possessing a trimethylamine (TMA) moiety (namely choline/phosphatidylcholine and L-carnitine) participate in the development of atherosclerotic heart disease has renewed attention towards the contributions of gut microbiota in the development of cardiovascular diseases. Collectively, animal and human studies reveal that conversion of these nutrient precursors to trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) depends on both microbial composition and host factors, and can be induced by dietary exposures. In addition, circulating TMAO levels are strongly linked to cardiovascular disease risks and various adverse cardio-renal consequences. Our group and others have further demonstrated that circulating TMAO levels are elevated in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared to healthy controls and gut microbiota-dependent phosphatidylcholine metabolism has been implicated in metabolic dysregulation and insulin resistance in animal models. Therefore, preventive strategies to minimize adverse consequences associated with TMAO generation in the diabetic population are warranted.

  5. Safe caves and dangerous forests? Predation risk may contribute to salamander colonization of subterranean habitats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvidio, Sebastiano; Palumbi, Giulia; Romano, Antonio; Costa, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Recent studies suggest that many organisms actively colonize the subterranean environment to avoid climatic stress, exploit new ecological opportunities and reduce competition and predation. Terrestrial salamanders are known to colonize the more stable subterranean habitats mainly to escape external climatic extremes, while the role of predation avoidance remains untested. To better understand the importance of predation, we used clay models of the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii to compare the predation occurring in woodland and subterranean habitats. Models were positioned in three forests and in three caves in NW Italy. One-hundred eighty-four models were retrieved from the field and 59 (32%) were attacked by predators. Models were attacked on their head more often than expected by chance and, therefore, were perceived by predators as real prey items. In the woodlands, clay models showed a four-time higher probability of being attacked in comparison to caves, suggesting a different level of potential predation risk in these surface habitats. These findings are one of the first experimental evidences that, in terrestrial ecosystems, predation avoidance may contribute to the salamander underground colonization process.

  6. Exploring the risk factors contributing to suicide attempt among adolescents: A qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Bazrafshan, Mohammad-Rafi; Sharif, Farkhondeh; Molazem, Zahra; Mani, Arash

    2016-01-01

    Background: Since suicide attempt among adolescents is a major challenge and the reasons why this age group attempt suicide are complex, the aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors that contribute to suicide attempt among adolescents. Materials and Methods: In this qualitative content analysis, 14 adolescents (12–19 years old) who were admitted in two hospitals in Shiraz, Iran, were interviewed. Participants who tried attempt suicide with medication were selected by purposive sampling and the data were gathered by semi-structured interviews. Data analysis was guided by the conventional approach of qualitative content analysis. Results: Three major themes and 13 subthemes emerged from data analysis. The main themes were: (a) Individual factors and experiences (psycho-emotional problems, puberty, religious beliefs, stress management strategies, marriage and love, field and level of education); (b) family factors (family structure, family relationship, family economic features, family health conditions); and (c) social factors (suicidal behavior in others, media influence, professional support). Conclusions: This study identified three major themes related to suicide attempt among adolescents in the context. As a result, suicide prevention and care provision should formulate a comprehensive method, considering the interaction of medical besides individual, familiar, and social factors in their assessment and care provision. PMID:26985229

  7. Adjuvant chemotherapy may contribute to an increased risk for metabolic syndrome in patients with breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Bicakli, Derya Hopanci; Varol, Umut; Degirmenci, Mustafa; Tunali, Didem; Cakar, Burcu; Durusoy, Raika; Karaca, Burcak; Ali Sanli, Ulus; Uslu, Ruchan

    2016-02-01

    Cytotoxic treatment may cause weight gain and important alterations in the metabolic status of breast cancer (BC) patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in metabolic and anthropometric parameters of patients with BC who received adjuvant chemotherapy. All consecutive women treated with adjuvant TAC (docetaxel 75 mg/m(2), doxorubicine 50 mg/m(2), cyclophosphamide 500 mg/m(2)) chemotherapy for node-positive breast carcinoma at our Institution between 2008 and 2010 were included. Among 104 patients, 84 of them were stage II and 20 of them were stage III. When we compared the measurements between 1(st) and 6(th) adjuvant chemotherapy, we observed statistically significant increases in weight and serum triglyceride levels, and decreases in high density lipoprotein, apolipoprotein A-1, transferrin, albumin and prealbumin levels. An elevation of follicle stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone together with the decrease of estradiol was detected. Waist-to-hip ratio has also increased significantly. In subgroup analyses, we observed dramatic changes in body mass index in pre-menopausal women whereas no significant change was seen in the post-menopausal group. Adjuvant chemotherapy may contribute to an increased risk for metabolic syndrome in patients with BC and these changes are more profound in pre-menopausal patients. © The Author(s) 2014.

  8. Disproportionate Contributions of Select Genomic Compartments and Cell Types to Genetic Risk for Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Won, Hong-Hee; Natarajan, Pradeep; Dobbyn, Amanda; Jordan, Daniel M.; Roussos, Panos; Lage, Kasper; Raychaudhuri, Soumya

    2015-01-01

    Large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic loci associated with risk for myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary artery disease (CAD). Concurrently, efforts such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Roadmap Epigenomics Project and the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) Consortium have provided unprecedented data on functional elements of the human genome. In the present study, we systematically investigate the biological link between genetic variants associated with this complex disease and their impacts on gene function. First, we examined the heritability of MI/CAD according to genomic compartments. We observed that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) residing within nearby regulatory regions show significant polygenicity and contribute between 59–71% of the heritability for MI/CAD. Second, we showed that the polygenicity and heritability explained by these SNPs are enriched in histone modification marks in specific cell types. Third, we found that a statistically higher number of 45 MI/CAD-associated SNPs that have been identified from large-scale GWAS studies reside within certain functional elements of the genome, particularly in active enhancer and promoter regions. Finally, we observed significant heterogeneity of this signal across cell types, with strong signals observed within adipose nuclei, as well as brain and spleen cell types. These results suggest that the genetic etiology of MI/CAD is largely explained by tissue-specific regulatory perturbation within the human genome. PMID:26509271

  9. Variation in the risk of readmission among hospitals: the relative contribution of patient, hospital and inpatient provider characteristics.

    PubMed

    Singh, Siddhartha; Lin, Yu-Li; Kuo, Yong-Fang; Nattinger, Ann B; Goodwin, James S

    2014-04-01

    The risk of readmission varies among hospitals. This variation has led the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid services to reduce payments to hospitals with excess readmissions. The contribution of patient characteristics, hospital characteristics and provider type to the variation in risk of readmission among hospitals has not been determined. To describe the variation in risk of readmission among hospitals and partition it by patient characteristics, hospital characteristics and provider type. Retrospective research design of 100% Texas Medicare data using multilevel, multivariable models. A total of 514,064 admissions of Medicare beneficiaries to 272 hospitals in Texas for medical diagnoses during the years 2008 and 2009. Using hierarchical generalized linear models, we describe the hospital-specific variation in risk of readmission that is attributable to patients characteristics, hospital characteristics and provider type by measuring the variance and intraclass correlation coefficients. Of the total variation in risk of readmission, only a small amount (0.84%) is attributed to hospitals. In further analyses modeling the components of this variation among hospitals, differences in patient characteristics in the hospitals explained 56.2% of the variation. Hospital characteristics and the type of provider explained 9.3% of the variation among hospitals and 0.08% of the total variation in risk of readmission. Patient characteristics are the largest contributor to variation in risk of readmission among hospitals. Measurable hospital characteristics and the type of inpatient provider contribute little to variation in risk of readmission among hospitals.

  10. Analytical model of sea level elevation during a storm: Support for coastal flood risk assessment associated with cyclone passage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maia, Natan Zambroni; Calliari, Lauro Julio; Nicolodi, João Luiz

    2016-08-01

    Sea level oscillations are a result of continuous astronomic, oceanographic, and atmospheric interactions on different time and intensity scales. Thus, the collective action of forcing factors such as tide, wind, atmospheric pressure, and wave action may lead to elevated sea levels during cyclone events over the continental shelf, abruptly impacting adjacent coasts. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential risks of sea level rise and coastal flooding associated with the passage of cyclones in southern Brazil. An analytical model was developed based on extreme storm events from 1997 to 2008. The model identifies the impact of each forcing factor during temporary sea level rise. Through the development of a digital terrain model, it was possible to identify the areas most vulnerable to flooding by superimposing the terrain model onto calculated sea levels. During storm events, sea level elevations ranged from 2 to 5 m and show wind as the major forcing factor, followed by swells waves, astronomical tide and finally atmospheric pressure.

  11. PTEN Protein Loss by Immunostaining: Analytic Validation and Prognostic Indicator for a High Risk Surgical Cohort of Prostate Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lotan, Tamara L.; Gurel, Bora; Sutcliffe, Siobhan; Esopi, David; Liu, Wennuan; Xu, Jianfeng; Hicks, Jessica L.; Park, Ben H.; Humphreys, Elizabeth; Partin, Alan W.; Han, Misop; Netto, George J.; Isaacs, William B.; De Marzo, Angelo M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Analytically validated assays to interrogate biomarker status in clinical samples are crucial for personalized medicine. PTEN is a tumor suppressor commonly inactivated in prostate cancer that has been mechanistically linked to disease aggressiveness. Though deletion of PTEN, as detected by cumbersome fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) spot counting assays, is associated with poor prognosis, few studies have validated immunohistochemical (IHC) assays to determine whether loss of PTEN protein is associated with unfavorable disease. Experimental Design PTEN IHC was validated by employing formalin fixed and paraffin embedded isogenic human cell lines containing or lacking intact PTEN alleles. PTEN IHC was 100% sensitive and 97.8% specific for detecting genomic alterations in 58 additional cell lines. PTEN protein loss was then assessed on 376 prostate tumor samples, and PTEN FISH or high resolution SNP microarray analysis was performed on a subset of these cases. Results PTEN protein loss, as assessed as a dichotomous IHC variable, was highly reproducible, correlated strongly with adverse pathologic features (e.g. Gleason score and pathological stage), detected between 75% and 86% of cases with PTEN genomic loss, and was found at times in the absence of apparent genomic loss. In a cohort of 217 high risk surgically treated patients, PTEN protein loss was associated with decreased time to metastasis. Conclusions These studies validate a simple method to interrogate PTEN status in clinical specimens and support the utility of this test in future multi-center studies, clinical trials and ultimately perhaps for routine clinical care. PMID:21878536

  12. A new analytical tool to assess health risks associated with the virological quality of drinking water (EMIRA study).

    PubMed

    Gofti-Laroche, L; Gratacap-Cavallier, B; Genoulaz, O; Joret, J C; Hartemann, P; Seigneurin, J M; Zmirou, D

    2001-01-01

    This work assessed the risks associated with the virological quality of tapwater using a molecular analytical tool manageable in a field survey. It combined a daily epidemiological follow-up of digestive morbidity among a panel of volunteers and a microbiological surveillance of drinking water. RT-PCR was used for detection of enterovirus, rotavirus and astrovirus. 712 cases of acute digestive conditions occurred in the 544 volunteers. 38% (9/24) raw water and 23% (10/44) tap water samples were positive for at least one virus marker with 9/10 positive tap water samples complying with bacterial criteria. No statistically significant association was found between the presence of viral markers and observed incidence of digestive morbidity. However, when an outbreak occurred, enterovirus and rotavirus RNA was detected in the corresponding stored tap water samples. Sequencing of the amplified fragments showed that the rotavirus detected was of bovine origin. This work demonstrated that enteric virus markers were common in tapwater of the study communities (characterised by a vulnerable raw water) despite absence of bacterial indicators. Tangential ultrafiltration coupled to RT-PCR allowed a simultaneous and fast detection of the study viruses from environmental samples. This process is a promising tool usable for virological water surveillance, in as much the corresponding know-how is transferred to the field professionals.

  13. Unique and Varied Contributions of Traditional CVD Risk Factors: A Systematic Literature Review of CAD Risk Factors in China.

    PubMed

    Foody, Joanne; Huo, Yong; Ji, Linong; Zhao, Dong; Boyd, Dylan; Meng, Hai Jin; Shiff, Susan; Hu, Dayi

    2013-01-01

    This study is the first systematic review of risk factors for stroke in China and supports the importance of current public health initiatives to manage the risk factors appropriately to reduce risk of stroke in high risk patients. Additionally, this study has been co-authored by prominent Chinese and US physicians and researchers with expertise in cardiovascular disease, neurologic disorders, epidemiology, and real world data. While there have been several systematic reviews of real world associations of risk factors for coronary artery disease, none focus specifically on the population of China, where there is growing evidence that such risk factors are poorly treated or uncontrolled, especially in rural areas. To better understand the impact of traditional cardiovascular risk factors on risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) in China, a systematic review of all Chinese observational studies published in either English or Chinese in MEDLINE and EMBASE over the last 5 years was performed and the association between any of 5 traditional risk factors (ie, hypertension, diabetes, elevated lipid levels, obesity, and smoking) and the risk of CAD was studied. The study found a consistent relationship between lipid levels and CAD. Higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol values were associated with greater risk of CAD, with an odds ratio as high as 3.31. Other factors found to be significant contributors to the risk of CAD included hypertension (crude odds ratio range of 1.40-5.11), diabetes (1.50-5.97), and smoking (1.37-5.19). An association between obesity and CAD in China was observed, but the evidence supporting this was considered weak due to the paucity of studies found as part of this review. This review provides a systematic summary of CAD risk factors in China and demonstrates the important differences that exist in CAD risk factors between countries and regions. Approaches to reduce CAD globally must take into account the unique risk factors that drive CAD in

  14. Unique and Varied Contributions of Traditional CVD Risk Factors: A Systematic Literature Review of CAD Risk Factors in China

    PubMed Central

    Foody, JoAnne; Huo, Yong; Ji, Linong; Zhao, Dong; Boyd, Dylan; Meng, Hai Jin; Shiff, Susan; Hu, Dayi

    2013-01-01

    This study is the first systematic review of risk factors for stroke in China and supports the importance of current public health initiatives to manage the risk factors appropriately to reduce risk of stroke in high risk patients. Additionally, this study has been co-authored by prominent Chinese and US physicians and researchers with expertise in cardiovascular disease, neurologic disorders, epidemiology, and real world data. While there have been several systematic reviews of real world associations of risk factors for coronary artery disease, none focus specifically on the population of China, where there is growing evidence that such risk factors are poorly treated or uncontrolled, especially in rural areas. Background To better understand the impact of traditional cardiovascular risk factors on risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) in China, a systematic review of all Chinese observational studies published in either English or Chinese in MEDLINE and EMBASE over the last 5 years was performed and the association between any of 5 traditional risk factors (ie, hypertension, diabetes, elevated lipid levels, obesity, and smoking) and the risk of CAD was studied. Methods and results The study found a consistent relationship between lipid levels and CAD. Higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol values were associated with greater risk of CAD, with an odds ratio as high as 3.31. Other factors found to be significant contributors to the risk of CAD included hypertension (crude odds ratio range of 1.40–5.11), diabetes (1.50–5.97), and smoking (1.37–5.19). An association between obesity and CAD in China was observed, but the evidence supporting this was considered weak due to the paucity of studies found as part of this review. Conclusions This review provides a systematic summary of CAD risk factors in China and demonstrates the important differences that exist in CAD risk factors between countries and regions. Approaches to reduce CAD globally must take into

  15. Approach–Avoidance Processes Contribute to Dissociable Impacts of Risk and Loss on Choice

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Hodgson, Karen; Fitzgerald, Thomas H. B.; Crawford, Bonni; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2013-01-01

    Value-based choices are influenced both by risk in potential outcomes and by whether outcomes reflect potential gains or losses. These variables are held to be related in a specific fashion, manifest in risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses. Instead, we hypothesized that there are independent impacts of risk and loss on choice such that, depending on context, subjects can show either risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses or the exact opposite. We demonstrate this independence in a gambling task, by selectively reversing a loss-induced effect (causing more gambling for gains than losses and the reverse) while leaving risk aversion unaffected. Consistent with these dissociable behavioral impacts of risk and loss, fMRI data revealed dissociable neural correlates of these variables, with parietal cortex tracking risk and orbitofrontal cortex and striatum tracking loss. Based on our neural data, we hypothesized that risk and loss influence action selection through approach–avoidance mechanisms, a hypothesis supported in an experiment in which we show valence and risk-dependent reaction time effects in line with this putative mechanism. We suggest that in the choice process risk and loss can independently engage approach–avoidance mechanisms. This can provide a novel explanation for how risk influences action selection and explains both classically described choice behavior as well as behavioral patterns not predicted by existing theory. PMID:22593069

  16. Chemical leasing business models: a contribution to the effective risk management of chemical substances.

    PubMed

    Ohl, Cornelia; Moser, Frank

    2007-08-01

    Chemicals indisputably contribute greatly to the well-being of modern societies. Apart from such benefits, however, chemicals often pose serious threats to human health and the environment when improperly handled. Therefore, the European Commission has proposed a regulatory framework for the Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH) that requires companies using chemicals to gather pertinent information on the properties of these substances. In this article, we argue that the crucial aspect of this information management may be the honesty and accuracy of the transfer of relevant knowledge from the producer of a chemical to its user. This may be particularly true if the application of potentially hazardous chemicals is not part of the user's core competency. Against this background, we maintain that the traditional sales concept provides no incentives for transferring this knowledge. The reason is that increased user knowledge of a chemical's properties may raise the efficiency of its application. That is, excessive and unnecessary usage will be eliminated. This, in turn, would lower the amount of chemicals sold and in competitive markets directly decrease profits of the producer. Through the introduction of chemical leasing business models, we attempt to present a strategy to overcome the incentive structure of classical sales models, which is counterproductive for the transfer of knowledge. By introducing two models (a Model A that differs least and a Model B that differs most from traditional sales concepts), we demonstrate that chemical leasing business models are capable of accomplishing the goal of Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals: to effectively manage the risk of chemicals by reducing the total quantity of chemicals used, either by a transfer of applicable knowledge from the lessor to the lessee (Model A) or by efficient application of the chemical by the lessor him/herself (Model B).

  17. Increased Cancer Mortality Risk for NASA's ISS Astronauts: The Contribution of Diagnostic Radiological Examinations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dodge, C.W.; Picco, C. E.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Shavers, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the radiation exposures and risks associated with long-term spaceflight on the International Space Station. NASA's risk model of cancer mortality is also presented.

  18. The Potential Contribution of Advanced Imaging Techniques to Developmental Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neuropathologic assessment provides critical data essential to developmental neurotoxicity risk assessment. There are a number of objectives in conducting a neuropathologic assessment to effectively support risk assessment. These include a comprehensive assessment of the adult an...

  19. The Potential Contribution of Advanced Imaging Techniques to Developmental Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neuropathologic assessment provides critical data essential to developmental neurotoxicity risk assessment. There are a number of objectives in conducting a neuropathologic assessment to effectively support risk assessment. These include a comprehensive assessment of the adult an...

  20. The contribution of ergonomics to risk analysis in the design process: the case of a future control room.

    PubMed

    De la Garza, Cecilia; Labarthe, Jean-Paul; Graglia, Louis

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to highlight how ergonomics contributes to risk analysis and risk management in a design project for a new reactor, the French EPR (European Pressurized Reactor). An iterative ergonomics design process has been conducted over the last 10 years through a Human Factors Engineering program at the French energy company EDF. A parallel has been drawn between a risk management process and this ergonomics process based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) publications such as ISO/IEC Guide 73, ISO Guide 51, etc. The contribution of ergonomics to risk analysis is illustrated by an example: the automatic diagnosis, which is a very important technical device for safety. Five main types of risk have been identified via ergonomic analyses during the different design stages. Counter-measures have been implemented and their efficacy tested within the scope of new campaigns to assess human factors. However, the management of risks in such a design project requires the participation both of the different design entities involved in the project and of other experts in aspects of risk management, such as human reliability. The organization of collaborative participation remains a challenge to be addressed.

  1. Relationships between Teachers and Preschoolers Who Are at Risk: Contribution of Children's Language Skills, Temperamentally Based Attributes, and Gender

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Justice, Laura M.; Cottone, Elizabeth A.; Mashburn, Andrew; Rimm-Kaufman, Sara E.

    2008-01-01

    Research Findings: The teacher-child relationship can provide an important support to young children who exhibit developmental risk. This research studied the contribution of children's language skills, temperamentally based attributes (shyness, anger), and gender to closeness and conflict in the teacher-child relationship for 133 preschoolers…

  2. Increased Waist-to-height Ratio May Contribute to Age-related Increase in Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Akhlaghi, Masoumeh; Kamali, Majid; Dastsouz, Farideh; Sadeghi, Fatemeh; Amanat, Sassan

    2016-01-01

    Background: The risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increases with age. The objective was to determine whether lifestyle and dietary behaviors and anthropometric measures, which are affected by these behaviors, contribute to the increase of CVD risk factors across age categories of 20–50-year-old. Methods: In a cross-sectional design, 437 adults aged 20–50-year-old were selected from households living in Shiraz. Risk factors of CVD, including body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), blood pressure, fasting blood glucose (FBG), serum triglycerides, total cholesterol, and low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C, respectively) as well as lifestyle behaviors (physical activity and smoking), dietary habits, and food intakes were assessed across the age categories of 20–29, 30–39, and 40–50 years. Linear regression was used to examine the contribution of different variables to the age-related increase of CVD risk factors. Results: All CVD risk factors, except for HDL-C, significantly increased across age categories. Older subjects had healthier dietary habits and food intakes, but they possessed nonsignificantly lower physical activity and higher smoking rate compared to younger adults. Adjusting for physical activity, smoking, and BMI did not change the significant positive association between age and CVD risk factors but adjusting for WHtR disappeared associations for blood pressure, triglycerides, and metabolic syndrome although significant associations remained for FBG and total and LDL-C. Conclusions: Age-related increase of CVD risk factors occurred independent of lifestyle habits. WHtR, but not BMI, may partially contribute to the age-related increase in CVD risk factors. PMID:27195100

  3. Addressing the contribution of previously described genetic and epidemiological risk factors associated with increased prostate cancer risk and aggressive disease within men from South Africa

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Although African ancestry represents a significant risk factor for prostate cancer, few studies have investigated the significance of prostate cancer and relevance of previously defined genetic and epidemiological prostate cancer risk factors within Africa. We recently established the Southern African Prostate Cancer Study (SAPCS), a resource for epidemiological and genetic analysis of prostate cancer risk and outcomes in Black men from South Africa. Biased towards highly aggressive prostate cancer disease, this is the first reported data analysis. Methods The SAPCS is an ongoing population-based study of Black men with or without prostate cancer. Pilot analysis was performed for the first 837 participants, 522 cases and 315 controls. We investigate 46 pre-defined prostate cancer risk alleles and up to 24 epidemiological measures including demographic, lifestyle and environmental factors, for power to predict disease status and to drive on-going SAPCS recruitment, sampling procedures and research direction. Results Preliminary results suggest that no previously defined risk alleles significantly predict prostate cancer occurrence within the SAPCS. Furthermore, genetic risk profiles did not enhance the predictive power of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing. Our study supports several lifestyle/environmental factors contributing to prostate cancer risk including a family history of cancer, diabetes, current sexual activity and erectile dysfunction, balding pattern, frequent aspirin usage and high PSA levels. Conclusions Despite a clear increased prostate cancer risk associated with an African ancestry, experimental data is lacking within Africa. This pilot study is therefore a significant contribution to the field. While genetic risk factors (largely European-defined) show no evidence for disease prediction in the SAPCS, several epidemiological factors were associated with prostate cancer status. We call for improved study power by building on the

  4. Addressing the contribution of previously described genetic and epidemiological risk factors associated with increased prostate cancer risk and aggressive disease within men from South Africa.

    PubMed

    Tindall, Elizabeth A; Bornman, M S Riana; van Zyl, Smit; Segone, Alpheus M; Monare, L Richard; Venter, Philip A; Hayes, Vanessa M

    2013-12-29

    Although African ancestry represents a significant risk factor for prostate cancer, few studies have investigated the significance of prostate cancer and relevance of previously defined genetic and epidemiological prostate cancer risk factors within Africa. We recently established the Southern African Prostate Cancer Study (SAPCS), a resource for epidemiological and genetic analysis of prostate cancer risk and outcomes in Black men from South Africa. Biased towards highly aggressive prostate cancer disease, this is the first reported data analysis. The SAPCS is an ongoing population-based study of Black men with or without prostate cancer. Pilot analysis was performed for the first 837 participants, 522 cases and 315 controls. We investigate 46 pre-defined prostate cancer risk alleles and up to 24 epidemiological measures including demographic, lifestyle and environmental factors, for power to predict disease status and to drive on-going SAPCS recruitment, sampling procedures and research direction. Preliminary results suggest that no previously defined risk alleles significantly predict prostate cancer occurrence within the SAPCS. Furthermore, genetic risk profiles did not enhance the predictive power of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing. Our study supports several lifestyle/environmental factors contributing to prostate cancer risk including a family history of cancer, diabetes, current sexual activity and erectile dysfunction, balding pattern, frequent aspirin usage and high PSA levels. Despite a clear increased prostate cancer risk associated with an African ancestry, experimental data is lacking within Africa. This pilot study is therefore a significant contribution to the field. While genetic risk factors (largely European-defined) show no evidence for disease prediction in the SAPCS, several epidemiological factors were associated with prostate cancer status. We call for improved study power by building on the SAPCS resource, further validation of

  5. The contribution of male and female partners' substance use to sexual risks and STDs among African American HIV serodiscordant couples.

    PubMed

    2010-10-01

    Growing evidence suggests that drug and alcohol use are fueling the heterosexual transmission of HIV among African Americans. This study aims to examine the relative contribution of drug and alcohol use of male and female partners to risks of heterosexual transmission of HIV among 535 African American HIV serodiscordant couples (N = 1,070 participants) who participated in an HIV prevention trial. Associations found between use of drugs and alcohol by one or both partners and sexual risk indicators varied by type of substance and whether male or female partner or both partners reported use. The findings suggest multiple ways in which substance use of male and female partners may be contributing to the heterosexual transmission of HIV and other STDs among African Americans and underscore the need for HIV prevention strategies to address dyadic patterns of substance use that lead to sexual risks.

  6. The Contribution of Male and Female Partners’ Substance Use to Sexual Risks and STDs Among African American HIV Serodiscordant Couples

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Growing evidence suggests that drug and alcohol use are fueling the heterosexual transmission of HIV among African Americans. This study aims to examine the relative contribution of drug and alcohol use of male and female partners to risks of heterosexual transmission of HIV among 535 African American HIV serodiscordant couples (N = 1,070 participants) who participated in an HIV prevention trial. Associations found between use of drugs and alcohol by one or both partners and sexual risk indicators varied by type of substance and whether male or female partner or both partners reported use. The findings suggest multiple ways in which substance use of male and female partners may be contributing to the heterosexual transmission of HIV and other STDs among African Americans and underscore the need for HIV prevention strategies to address dyadic patterns of substance use that lead to sexual risks. PMID:20499153

  7. Aryl hydrocarbon receptor mediated activities in road dust from a metropolitan area, Hanoi-Vietnam: contribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and human risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Tuyen, Le Huu; Tue, Nguyen Minh; Suzuki, Go; Misaki, Kentaro; Viet, Pham Hung; Takahashi, Shin; Tanabe, Shinsuke

    2014-09-01

    Dioxin-Responsive Chemical-Activated LUciferase gene eXpression assay (DR-CALUX) was applied to assess the total toxic activity of the mixture of PAHs and related compounds as well as dioxin-related compounds in road dust from urban areas of Hanoi, Vietnam. Road dust from Hanoi contained significantly higher DR-CALUX activities (3 to 39, mean 20 ng CALUX-TEQ/g dw) than those from a rural site (2 to 13, mean 5 ng CALUX-TEQ/g dw). The total concentrations of 24 major PAHs (Σ24PAHs) in urban road dust (0.1 to 5.5, mean 2.5 μg/g dw) were also 6 times higher than those in rural road dust (0.08 to 1.5, mean 0.4 μg/g dw). Diagnostic ratios of PAHs indicated vehicular engine combustion as the major PAH emission source in both sites. PAHs accounted for 0.8 to 60% (mean 10%) and 2 to 76% (mean 20%) of the measured CALUX-TEQs in road dust for Hanoi the rural site, respectively. Benzo[b]-/benzo[k]fluoranthenes were the major TEQ contributors among PAHs, whereas DRCs contributed <0.1% to CALUX-TEQs for both rural and urban sites. These results suggest TEQ contribution of other aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists in road dust. Significant PAH concentrations in urban dust indicated high mutagenic and carcinogenic potencies. Estimated results of incremental life time cancer risk (ILCR) indicated that Vietnamese populations, especially those in urban areas such as Hanoi, are potentially exposed to high cancer risk via both dust ingestion and dermal contact. This is the first study on the exposure risk of AhR agonists, including PAHs and DRCs, in urban road dust from a developing country using a combined bio-chemical analytical approach.

  8. Contributions of Risk and Protective Factors to Prediction of Psychological Symptoms after Traumatic Experiences

    PubMed Central

    Carlson, Eve B.; Palmieri, Patrick A.; Field, Nigel P.; Dalenberg, Constance J.; Macia, Kathryn S.; Spain, David A.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Traumatic experiences cause considerable suffering and place a burden on society due to lost productivity, increases in suicidality, violence, criminal behavior, and psychological disorder. The impact of traumatic experiences is complicated because many factors affect individuals’ responses. By employing several methodological improvements, we sought to identify risk factors that would account for a greater proportion of variance in later disorder than prior studies. Method In a sample of 129 traumatically injured hospital patients and family members of injured patients, we studied pre-trauma, time of trauma, and post-trauma psychosocial risk and protective factors hypothesized to influence responses to traumatic experiences and posttraumatic (PT) symptoms (including symptoms of PTSD, depression, negative thinking, and dissociation) two months after trauma. Results The risk factors were all significantly correlated with later PT symptoms, with post-trauma life stress, post-trauma social support, and acute stress symptoms showing the strongest relationships. A hierarchical regression, in which the risk factors were entered in 6 steps based on their occurrence in time, showed the risks accounted for 72% of the variance in later symptoms. Most of the variance in PT symptoms was shared among many risk factors, and pre-trauma and post-trauma risk factors accounted for the most variance. Conclusions Collectively, the risk factors accounted for more variance in later PT symptoms than in previous studies. These risk factors may identify individuals at risk for PT psychological disorders and targets for treatment. PMID:27423351

  9. Characteristics of foodborne outbreaks in which use of analytical epidemiological studies contributed to identification of suspected vehicles, European Union, 2007 to 2011.

    PubMed

    Schlinkmann, K M; Razum, O; Werber, D

    2017-04-01

    Foodborne disease outbreaks (FBDOs) occur frequently in Europe. Employing analytical epidemiological study designs increases the likelihood of identifying the suspected vehicle(s), but these studies are rarely applied in FBDO investigations. We used multivariable binary logistic regression analysis to identify characteristics of investigated FBDOs reported to the European Food Safety Authority (2007-2011) that were associated with analytical epidemiological evidence (compared to evidence from microbiological investigations/descriptive epidemiology only). The analysis was restricted to FBDO investigations, where the evidence for the suspected vehicle was considered 'strong', i.e. convincing. The presence of analytical epidemiological evidence was reported in 2012 (50%) of these 4038 outbreaks. In multivariable analysis, increasing outbreak size, number of hospitalizations, causative (i.e. aetiological) agent (whether identified and, if so, which one), and the setting in which these outbreaks occurred (e.g. geographically dispersed outbreaks) were independently associated with presence of analytical evidence. The number of investigations with reported analytical epidemiological evidence was unexpectedly high, likely indicating the need for quality assurance within the European Union foodborne outbreak reporting system, and warranting cautious interpretation of our findings. This first analysis of evidence implicating a food vehicle in FBDOs may help to inform public health authorities on when to use analytical epidemiological study designs.

  10. Contribution of Company Affiliation and Social Contacts to Risk Estimates of Between-Farm Transmission of Avian Influenza

    PubMed Central

    Leibler, Jessica H.; Carone, Marco; Silbergeld, Ellen K.

    2010-01-01

    Background Models of between-farm transmission of pathogens have identified service vehicles and social groups as risk factors mediating the spread of infection. Because of high levels of economic organization in much of the poultry industry, we examined the importance of company affiliation, as distinct from social contacts, in a model of the potential spread of avian influenza among broiler poultry farms in a poultry-dense region in the United States. The contribution of company affiliation to risk of between-farm disease transmission has not been previously studied. Methodology/Principal Findings We obtained data on the nature and frequency of business and social contacts through a national survey of broiler poultry growers in the United States. Daily rates of contact were estimated using Monte Carlo analysis. Stochastic modeling techniques were used to estimate the exposure risk posed by a single infectious farm to other farms in the region and relative risk of exposure for farms under different scenarios. The mean daily rate of vehicular contact was 0.82 vehicles/day. The magnitude of exposure risk ranged from <1% to 25% under varying parameters. Risk of between-farm transmission was largely driven by company affiliation, with farms in the same company group as the index farm facing as much as a 5-fold increase in risk compared to farms contracted with different companies. Employment of part-time workers contributed to significant increases in risk in most scenarios, notably for farms who hired day-laborers. Social visits were significantly less important in determining risk. Conclusions/Significance Biosecurity interventions should be based on information on industry structure and company affiliation, and include part-time workers as potentially unrecognized sources of viral transmission. Modeling efforts to understand pathogen transmission in the context of industrial food animal production should consider company affiliation in addition to geospatial

  11. Contribution of company affiliation and social contacts to risk estimates of between-farm transmission of avian influenza.

    PubMed

    Leibler, Jessica H; Carone, Marco; Silbergeld, Ellen K

    2010-03-25

    Models of between-farm transmission of pathogens have identified service vehicles and social groups as risk factors mediating the spread of infection. Because of high levels of economic organization in much of the poultry industry, we examined the importance of company affiliation, as distinct from social contacts, in a model of the potential spread of avian influenza among broiler poultry farms in a poultry-dense region in the United States. The contribution of company affiliation to risk of between-farm disease transmission has not been previously studied. We obtained data on the nature and frequency of business and social contacts through a national survey of broiler poultry growers in the United States. Daily rates of contact were estimated using Monte Carlo analysis. Stochastic modeling techniques were used to estimate the exposure risk posed by a single infectious farm to other farms in the region and relative risk of exposure for farms under different scenarios. The mean daily rate of vehicular contact was 0.82 vehicles/day. The magnitude of exposure risk ranged from <1% to 25% under varying parameters. Risk of between-farm transmission was largely driven by company affiliation, with farms in the same company group as the index farm facing as much as a 5-fold increase in risk compared to farms contracted with different companies. Employment of part-time workers contributed to significant increases in risk in most scenarios, notably for farms who hired day-laborers. Social visits were significantly less important in determining risk. Biosecurity interventions should be based on information on industry structure and company affiliation, and include part-time workers as potentially unrecognized sources of viral transmission. Modeling efforts to understand pathogen transmission in the context of industrial food animal production should consider company affiliation in addition to geospatial factors and pathogen characteristics. Restriction of social contacts

  12. PON1 L55M polymorphism might contribute to the risk of cancer.

    PubMed

    Hu, Peizeng; Ma, Yongchen; Zhang, Lingling; Ma, Sheng

    2017-03-01

    The results involved in correlation of PON1 L55M polymorphism and cancer risk are still inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, we performed this comprehensive meta-analysis for the effects of PON1 L55M polymorphism and cancer risk. We carried out a database search in PubMed (Medline) and EMBASE covering all published articles. The strength of association between PON1 L55M polymorphism and cancer risk was estimated by pooled ORs with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Twenty-one independent case-control studies concerned with association between PON1 L55M polymorphism and cancer risk were finally included in this meta-analysis. We found that there was a statistical significance between PON1 L55M polymorphism and cancer risk (OR=1.21, 95% CI: 1.04-1.40). In stratified analyses by site of cancer, statistically significant increased breast cancer risk was found (OR=2.04, 95% CI: 1.29-3.21). In stratified analyses by ethnicity, statistically significant increased cancer risk was found in Caucasian populations (OR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.03-1.51). In stratified analyses by source of control, significant increased cancer risk was found in hospital-based studies (OR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.10-1.44). This meta-analysis suggested that PON1 L55M polymorphism might increase the risk of cancer.

  13. Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

    PubMed

    Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

    2011-09-10

    In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A model of contributing risk factors to chemical dependency in nurses.

    PubMed

    Mynatt, S

    1996-07-01

    1. The risk of chemical dependency in women includes a chaotic family of origin, victimization, and low self-esteem. 2. Women with substance abuse disorders often suffer from a co-morbid depression, which is a threat to relapse. 3. Nursing and nursing education must develop strategies to minimize the risks associated with substance abuse disorders.

  15. The Contributions of Breast Density and Common Genetic Variation to Breast Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Pankratz, V. Shane; Scott, Christopher G.; Haeberle, Lothar; Ziv, Elad; Jensen, Matthew R.; Brandt, Kathleen R.; Whaley, Dana H.; Olson, Janet E.; Heusinger, Katharina; Hack, Carolin C.; Jud, Sebastian M.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Schulz-Wendtland, Ruediger; Tice, Jeffrey A.; Norman, Aaron D.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Purrington, Kristen S.; Easton, Douglas F.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Kerlikowske, Karla; Fasching, Peter A.; Couch, Fergus J.

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated whether a 76-locus polygenic risk score (PRS) and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density were independent risk factors within three studies (1643 case patients, 2397 control patients) using logistic regression models. We incorporated the PRS odds ratio (OR) into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk-prediction model while accounting for its attributable risk and compared five-year absolute risk predictions between models using area under the curve (AUC) statistics. All statistical tests were two-sided. BI-RADS density and PRS were independent risk factors across all three studies (P interaction = .23). Relative to those with scattered fibroglandular densities and average PRS (2nd quartile), women with extreme density and highest quartile PRS had 2.7-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.74 to 4.12) increased risk, while those with low density and PRS had reduced risk (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.51). PRS added independent information (P < .001) to the BCSC model and improved discriminatory accuracy from AUC = 0.66 to AUC = 0.69. Although the BCSC-PRS model was well calibrated in case-control data, independent cohort data are needed to test calibration in the general population. PMID:25745020

  16. The contributions of breast density and common genetic variation to breast cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Vachon, Celine M; Pankratz, V Shane; Scott, Christopher G; Haeberle, Lothar; Ziv, Elad; Jensen, Matthew R; Brandt, Kathleen R; Whaley, Dana H; Olson, Janet E; Heusinger, Katharina; Hack, Carolin C; Jud, Sebastian M; Beckmann, Matthias W; Schulz-Wendtland, Ruediger; Tice, Jeffrey A; Norman, Aaron D; Cunningham, Julie M; Purrington, Kristen S; Easton, Douglas F; Sellers, Thomas A; Kerlikowske, Karla; Fasching, Peter A; Couch, Fergus J

    2015-05-01

    We evaluated whether a 76-locus polygenic risk score (PRS) and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density were independent risk factors within three studies (1643 case patients, 2397 control patients) using logistic regression models. We incorporated the PRS odds ratio (OR) into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk-prediction model while accounting for its attributable risk and compared five-year absolute risk predictions between models using area under the curve (AUC) statistics. All statistical tests were two-sided. BI-RADS density and PRS were independent risk factors across all three studies (P interaction = .23). Relative to those with scattered fibroglandular densities and average PRS (2(nd) quartile), women with extreme density and highest quartile PRS had 2.7-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.74 to 4.12) increased risk, while those with low density and PRS had reduced risk (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.51). PRS added independent information (P < .001) to the BCSC model and improved discriminatory accuracy from AUC = 0.66 to AUC = 0.69. Although the BCSC-PRS model was well calibrated in case-control data, independent cohort data are needed to test calibration in the general population.

  17. The contribution of occupational risks to the global burden of disease: summary and next steps.

    PubMed

    Fingerhut, Marilyn; Nelson, Deborah Imel; Driscoll, T; Concha-Barrientos, Marisol; Steenland, Kyle; Punnett, Laura; Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Leigh, J; Corvalan, C; Eijkemans, G; Takala, J

    2006-01-01

    The Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) project of the World Health Organization (WHO) assessed worldwide mortality and morbidity in the year 2000 resulting from exposures to selected occupational hazards. This article summarizes findings of the WHO CRA project, presents the estimates of the International Labor Organization (ILO) for total deaths due to workplace risks, and calls for action. Global burden estimates and counts of deaths assist ministers and other decision and policy makers to make informed decisions and to take action regarding risk reduction. The WHO CRA methodology combined the proportions of the population exposed to five occupational hazards (excluding numerous risks due to inadequate global data) with relative risk measures to estimate attributable fractions of the selected health outcomes for both morbidity and mortality. ILO estimates of total numbers of global work-related injury deaths apply national fatality rates to employment data for the particular country; for disease deaths ILO uses an attributable risk approach. In 2000, the selected occupational risk factors were responsible worldwide for 37% of back pain, 16% of hearing loss, 13% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 11% of asthma, 8% of injuries, 9% of lung cancer and 2% of leukemia, and about 100% of pneumoconioses and mesothelioma. These selected risks at work resulted in the loss of about 24 million years of healthy life and caused 850,000 deaths worldwide, about 40% of the ILO estimate of 2.2 million total deaths. These global and regional analyses have identified areas where specific preventive actions are required.

  18. The contribution of neighbours to an individual's risk of typhoid outcome.

    PubMed

    Chao, D L; Park, J K; Marks, F; Ochiai, R L; Longini, I M; Halloran, M E

    2015-12-01

    An individual's risk of infection from an infectious agent can depend on both the individual's own risk and protective factors and those of individuals in the same community. We hypothesize that an individual's exposure to an infectious agent is associated with the risks of infection of those living nearby, whether their risks are modified by pharmaceutical interventions or by other factors, because of the potential for transmission from them. For example, unvaccinated individuals living in a highly vaccinated community can benefit from indirect protection, or living near more children in a typhoid-endemic region (where children are at highest risk) might result in more exposure to typhoid. We tested this hypothesis using data from a cluster-randomized typhoid vaccine trial. We first estimated each individual's relative risk of confirmed typhoid outcome using their vaccination status and age. We defined a new covariate, potential exposure, to be the sum of the relative risks of all who live within 100 m of each person. We found that potential exposure was significantly associated with an individual's typhoid outcome, and adjusting for potential exposure affected estimates of vaccine efficacy. We suggest that it is useful and feasible to adjust for spatially heterogeneous distributions of individual-level risk factors, but further work is required to develop and test such approaches.

  19. Confronting Uncertainty and Risk: The Contribution of Leadership to School Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hameiri, Lior; Nir, Adam; Inbar, Dan E.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to assess to what extent public school principals experience role uncertainty and risk on the job and to examine the joint effect of school principals' leadership style and use of power bases on school outcomes, under perceived role uncertainty and role risk. Questionnaires were administrated to 191 school principals…

  20. SMAD7 loci contribute to risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and clinicopathologic development among Chinese Han population

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chenying; Song, Jingjing; Chen, Weiqian; Chen, Minjiang; Fan, Xiaoxi; Cheng, Xingyao; Lan, Xilin; Li, Jie

    2016-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified three loci at 18q21 (rs4939827, rs7240004, and rs7229639), which maps to SMAD7 loci, were associated with risk of diseases of the digestive system. However, their associations with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remain unknown. A case-control study was conducted to assess genetic associations with HCC risk and clinicopathologic development among Chinese Han population. Three SNPs were genotyped among 1,000 HCC cases and 1,000 controls using Sequenom Mass-ARRAY technology. We observed statistically significant associations for the three SMAD7 loci and HCC risk. Each copy of minor allele was associated with a 1.24–1.36 fold increased risk of HCC. We also found that significant differences were observed between rs4939827 and clinical TNM stage and vascular invasion, as well as rs7240004 and vascular invasion. We also established a genetic risk score (GRS) by summing the risk alleles. The GRS was significantly associated with increased risk of HCC and vascular invasion. Our data revealed the SMAD7 loci is associated with HCC susceptibility and its clinicopathologic development. PMID:26989026

  1. The contributions of sleep-related risk factors to diurnal car accidents.

    PubMed

    Lucidi, Fabio; Mallia, Luca; Violani, Cristiano; Giustiniani, Gabriele; Persia, Luca

    2013-03-01

    This study was intended to estimate the presence and number of individual sleep-related risk factors in a sample of diurnal car accidents and to analyze the extent to which these risk factors tended to be more represented in diurnal accidents involving only one vehicle, involving young drivers or occurring on non-urban roads. Two hundred fifty-three drivers involved in diurnal accidents were interviewed immediately after the accidents to assess their sleepiness-related personal conditions and the circumstances prior to the accident (i.e., individual sleep-related risk factors), such as poor sleep, changes in habitual sleeping patterns, prolonged wakefulness, self-reported acute sleepiness and daytime sleepiness, night-shift jobs and insomnia. A total of 12.3% of the drivers were classified as having at least one of the seven risk factors assessed in the study, supporting the general notion that drivers' sleepiness conditions are crucial, even in diurnal driving circumstances in which they are less likely to depend on chrono-biological processes. Furthermore, consistent with the guiding hypotheses, specific sleep-related risk factors were more evident in single (vs. multiple) car accidents, among young drivers and in car accidents occurring on non-urban roads. In summary, sleep-related risk factors seemed to have a negative impact on drivers' safety in circumstances of diurnal driving, especially when the accidents involved young individuals and occurred on non-urban roads. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Adolescent perception of premature risk for death: contributions from individual and environmental contextual factors.

    PubMed

    Duke, Naomi N; Skay, Carol L; Pettingell, Sandra L; Borowsky, Iris W

    2009-01-01

    Adolescent perception of premature risk for death is a cause of great concern. This study identified individual and environmental characteristics of youth expressing perception of premature risk for death. Data are from Waves 1 (1995) and 3 (2001-2002) of the in-home interviews from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. The study sample included 12,103 adolescents and 10,519 parents (Wave 1) and 9130 young adults (Wave 3). Logistic regression models were used to determine contexts for health risk, connection, safety and monitoring, individual/developmental, and caregiver/family characteristics associated with adolescent early death perception. One in 7 youth endorsed perceived risk for early demise. After controlling for demographic factors, adolescent early death perception is a powerful marker for high-risk status, including involvement in self-destructive behaviors (odds ratio [OR] 1.32-13.97, P = .01-P <.001) and physical and psychological distress (OR 8.33-39.37, P < .001). Alternately, models for stronger connection in the primary socializing domains, perceptions of safety, academic achievement, outlets for participation, and better caregiver capacity offered significant protective effect (OR 0.10-0.91, P < .001). In a final multivariate model, unique relationships between adolescent early death perception and health risk behavior and exposure, adult and peer connection, mental health, and parent/family economic security emerged. Study findings support further research into constructs for premature death perception as a potential mechanism to facilitate intervention with youth who may be at risk for further negative life trajectories, including depressive reactions and extreme reactions to future adverse life events.

  3. Contribution of extended family history in assessment of risk for breast and colon cancer.

    PubMed

    Solomon, Benjamin L; Whitman, Todd; Wood, Marie E

    2016-09-01

    Family history is important for identifying candidates for high risk cancer screening and referral for genetic counseling. We sought to determine the percentage of individuals who would be eligible for high risk cancer screening or genetic referral and testing if family history includes an extended (vs limited) family history. Family histories were obtained from 626 women at UVMMC associated mammography centers from 2001 to 2002. ACS guidelines were used to determine eligibility for high risk breast or colon cancer screening. Eligibility for referral for genetic counseling for hereditary breast and colon cancer was determined using the Referral Screening Tool and Amsterdam II screening criteria, respectively. All family histories were assessed for eligibility by a limited history (first degree relatives only) and extended history (first and second degree relatives). Four hundred ninety-nine histories were eligible for review. 18/282 (3.6 %) and 62/123 (12 %) individuals met criteria for high risk breast and colon cancer screening, respectively. 13/18 (72 %) in the high risk breast cancer screening group and 12/62 (19 %) in the high risk colon cancer screening group met criteria based upon an extended family history. 9/282 (1.8 %) and 31/123 (6.2 %) individuals met criteria for genetic counseling referral and testing for breast and colon cancer, respectively. 2/9 (22 %) of individuals in the genetic breast cancer screening group and 21/31 (68 %) individuals in the genetic colon cancer screening group met criteria based upon extended family history. This is one of the first studies to suggest that first degree family history alone is not adequate for identification of candidates for high risk screening and referral for genetic counseling for hereditary breast and colon cancer syndromes. A larger population is needed to further validate this data.

  4. Does antibacterial treatment for urinary tract infection contribute to the risk of breast cancer?

    PubMed Central

    Knekt, P; Adlercreutz, H; Rissanen, H; Aromaa, A; Teppo, L; Heliövaara, M

    2000-01-01

    Low lignan status has been reported to be related to an elevated risk of breast cancer. Since lignan status is reduced by antibacterial medications, it is plausible to hypothesize that repeated use of antibiotics may also be a risk factor for breast cancer. History of treatment for urinary tract infection was studied for its prediction of breast cancer among 9461 Finnish women 19–89 years of age and initially cancer-free. During a follow-up in 1973–1991, a total of 157 breast cancer cases were diagnosed. Women reporting previous or present medication for urinary tract infection at baseline showed an elevated breast cancer risk in comparison with other women. The age-adjusted relative risk was 1.34 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.98–1.83). The association was concentrated to women under 50 years of age. The relative risk for these women was 1.74 (95% CI 1.13–2.68), whereas it was 0.97 (95% CI 0.59–1.58) for older women. The relative risk in the younger age-group was 1.47 (95% CI 0.73–2.97) during the first 10 years of follow-up, and 1.93 (95% CI 1.11–3.37) for follow-up times longer than 10 years. These data suggest that premenopausal women using long-term medication for urinary tract infections show a possible elevated risk of future breast cancer. The results are, however, still inconclusive and the hypothesis needs to be tested by other studies. © 2000 Cancer ResearchCampaign PMID:10737394

  5. Web Analytics

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA’s Web Analytics Program collects, analyzes, and provides reports on traffic, quality assurance, and customer satisfaction metrics for EPA’s website. The program uses a variety of analytics tools, including Google Analytics and CrazyEgg.

  6. Contribution of Behavioral Risk Factors and Obesity to Socioeconomic Differences in Colorectal Cancer Incidence

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Health behaviors are known risk factors for colorectal cancer and are more common in low socioeconomic status (SES) populations. We evaluated the extent to which behavioral risk factors and body mass index (BMI) explain SES disparities in colorectal cancer incidence, overall and by tumor location. Methods We analyzed prospective National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study data on 506 488 participants who were recruited in 1995–1996 from six US states and two metropolitan areas and followed through 2006. Detailed baseline data on risk factors for colorectal cancer, including health behaviors, were obtained using questionnaires. SES was measured by self-reported education and census-tract data. The outcome was primary incident invasive colorectal adenocarcinoma. Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between SES and risk of incident colorectal cancer, with adjustment for age, sex, race and ethnicity, family history, and state of residence. The model estimates were used to derive percentage mediation by behavioral risk factors; bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals were obtained through bootstrap techniques. Results Seven-thousand six-hundred seventy-six participants developed colorectal cancer during follow-up. SES differences in prevalence of physical inactivity, unhealthy diet, smoking, and unhealthy weight each explained between 11.3% (BMI) and 21.6% (diet) of the association between education and risk of colorectal cancer and between 8.6% (smoking) and 15.3% (diet) of the association between neighborhood SES and risk of colorectal cancer. Health behaviors and BMI combined explained approximately 43.9% (95% CI = 35.1% to 57.9%) of the association of education and 36.2% (95% CI = 28.0% to 51.2%) of the association of neighborhood SES with risk of colorectal cancer. The percentage explained by all factors and BMI combined was largest for right colon cancers and smallest for rectal cancers. Conclusion A substantial

  7. AGT M235T polymorphism contributes to risk of preeclampsia: evidence from a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ni, Shanshan; Zhang, Yanyan; Deng, Yulin; Gong, Yunhui; Huang, Juan; Bai, Yi; Zhou, Rong

    2012-09-01

    Preeclampsia a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy that mainly manifests as high blood pressure and proteinuria. Angiotensinogen (AGT) plays important roles in the regulation of blood pressure. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between AGT M235T polymorphism and risk of preeclampsia using a meta-analysis. In this meta-analysis, 22 studies were selected by searching PubMed, EMBASE, ISI and CNKI databases up to October 2011. Crude odds ratios with corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to evaluate the association between the AGT M235T polymorphism and risk of preeclampsia. Subgroup analyses were conducted by ethnicity and parity. The TT genotype of the AGT M235T polymorphism was associated with elevated risk of preeclampsia in the overall analysis. In subgroup analysis according to ethnicity, increased risks were also found in Caucasians. After stratification based on parity, the excess risk was found in multigravida. These results showed that the TT genotype may play critical roles in the development of preeclampsia.

  8. Interleukin 1 Polymorphisms Contribute to Intervertebral Disc Degeneration Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Changfeng; Xu, Feng; Chen, Yong; Wang, Zhenyu; Liu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Objective We performed a meta-analysis to assess association between interleukin 1 (IL-1) polymorphisms and the risk of Intervertebral Disc Degeneration (IDD). Background A series of studies have investigated the association between common single nucleotide polymorphisms in IL-1 and IDD risk; however, the overall results are inconclusive. Methods Two independent investigators conducted a systematic search for relevant available studies. Allele frequencies were extracted from each study. The association between the IL-1α (+889C/T) or IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism and IDD risk was measured by odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results Five and six studies, respectively, were ultimately included in the meta-analysis for the IL-1α (+889C/T) and IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism. The combined results showed that the IL-1α (+889C/T) polymorphism was significantly associated with increased susceptibility to IDD, particularly in Caucasians (TT versus CC: OR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.45, 6.04; Pheterogeneity = 0.82; TT versus CC/CT: OR = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.18, 4.47; Pheterogeneity = 0.20). In contrast, the IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism showed a trend towards increased risk in Caucasians but no association in Asians. Conclusion This meta-analysis suggested that the IL-1α (+889C/T) polymorphism is significantly associated with risk of IDD, especially in Caucasian populations. PMID:27253397

  9. Interleukin 1 Polymorphisms Contribute to Intervertebral Disc Degeneration Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zheng; Qu, Zhigang; Fu, Changfeng; Xu, Feng; Chen, Yong; Wang, Zhenyu; Liu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    We performed a meta-analysis to assess association between interleukin 1 (IL-1) polymorphisms and the risk of Intervertebral Disc Degeneration (IDD). A series of studies have investigated the association between common single nucleotide polymorphisms in IL-1 and IDD risk; however, the overall results are inconclusive. Two independent investigators conducted a systematic search for relevant available studies. Allele frequencies were extracted from each study. The association between the IL-1α (+889C/T) or IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism and IDD risk was measured by odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Five and six studies, respectively, were ultimately included in the meta-analysis for the IL-1α (+889C/T) and IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism. The combined results showed that the IL-1α (+889C/T) polymorphism was significantly associated with increased susceptibility to IDD, particularly in Caucasians (TT versus CC: OR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.45, 6.04; Pheterogeneity = 0.82; TT versus OR = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.18, 4.47; Pheterogeneity = 0.20). In contrast, the IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism showed a trend towards increased risk in Caucasians but no association in Asians. This meta-analysis suggested that the IL-1α (+889C/T) polymorphism is significantly associated with risk of IDD, especially in Caucasian populations.

  10. The plausibility of maternal toxicant exposure and nutritional status as contributing factors to the risk of autism spectrum disorders.

    PubMed

    Nuttall, Johnathan R

    2017-05-01

    Recent research suggests the maternal environment may be especially important for the risk of developing autism spectrum disorders (ASD). In particular maternal infections, micronutrient deficiencies, obesity, and toxicant exposures are likely to interact with genetic risk factors to disrupt fetal brain development. The goal of this paper is to investigate the plausibility of maternal toxicant exposure and nutritional status as causal factors in the development of ASD. This paper reviews current research investigating the hypothesis that maternal toxicant exposure and prenatal micronutrient intake are important modifiable risk factors for ASD. Zinc, copper, iron, and vitamin B9 are identified as specific micronutrients with relevance to the etiology of ASD. Specific toxicants induce a maternal inflammatory response leading to fetal micronutrient deficiencies that disrupt early brain development. Importantly, maternal micronutrient supplementation is associated with reduced risk of ASD. Furthermore, animal studies show that micronutrient supplementation can prevent the teratogenicity and developmental neurotoxicity of specific toxicants. These findings lead to the hypothesis that maternal infection, obesity, and toxicant exposures (e.g. valproic acid, endocrine disrupting plasticizers, ethanol, and heavy metals) are all environmental risk factors for ASD that lead to fetal micronutrient deficiencies resulting from a maternal inflammatory response. It could be possible to use markers of inflammation and micronutrient status to identify women that would benefit from micronutrient supplementation or dietary interventions to reduce the risk of ASD. However, more research is needed to demonstrate a causal role of fetal micronutrient deficiencies and clarify the underlying mechanisms that contribute to ASD.

  11. An overdue alignment of risk and resilience? A conceptual contribution to community resilience.

    PubMed

    Mochizuki, Junko; Keating, Adriana; Liu, Wei; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard

    2017-07-06

    A systematic review of literature on community resilience measurement published between 2005 and 2014 revealed that the profound lack of clarity on risk and resilience is one of the main reasons why confusion about terms such as adaptive capacity, resilience, and vulnerability persists, despite the effort spared to operationalise these concepts. Resilience is measured in isolation in some cases, where a shock is perceived to arise external to the system of interest. Problematically, this contradicts the way in which the climate change and disaster communities perceive risk as manifesting itself endogenously as a function of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. The common conceptualisation of resilience as predominantly positive is problematic as well when, in reality, many undesirable properties of a system are resilient. Consequently, this paper presents an integrative framework that highlights the interactions between risk drivers and coping, adaptive, and transformative capacities, providing an improved conceptual basis for resilience measurement. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  12. Nature, Nurture, and Cancer Risks: Genetic and Nutritional Contributions to Cancer.

    PubMed

    Theodoratou, Evropi; Timofeeva, Maria; Li, Xue; Meng, Xiangrui; Ioannidis, John P A

    2017-08-21

    It is speculated that genetic variants are associated with differential responses to nutrients (known as gene-diet interactions) and that these variations may be linked to different cancer risks. In this review, we critically evaluate the evidence across 314 meta-analyses of observational studies and randomized controlled trials of dietary risk factors and the five most common cancers (breast, lung, prostate, colorectal, and stomach). We also critically evaluate the evidence across 13 meta-analyses of observational studies of gene-diet interactions for the same cancers. Convincing evidence for association was found only for the intake of alcohol and whole grains in relation to colorectal cancer risk. Three nutrient associations had highly suggestive evidence and another 15 associations had suggestive evidence. Among the examined gene-diet interactions, only one had moderately strong evidence.

  13. The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

    PubMed

    Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

    2016-04-01

    A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Volume of White Matter Hyperintensities in Healthy Adults: Contribution of Age, Vascular Risk Factors, and Inflammation-Related Genetic Variants

    PubMed Central

    Raz, Naftali; Yang, Yiqin; Dahle, Cheryl L.; Land, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Aging is associated with appearance of white matter hyperintensities (WMH) on MRI scans. Vascular risk and inflammation, which increase with age, may contribute to white matter deterioration and proliferation of WMH. We investigated whether circulating biomarkers and genetic variants associated with elevated vascular risk and inflammation are associated with WMH volume in healthy adults (144 volunteers, 44-77 years of age). We examined association of WMH volume with age, sex, hypertension, circulating levels of total plasma homocysteine (tHcy), cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein), and C-reactive protein (CRP), and four polymorphisms related to vascular risk and inflammation: Apolipoprotein ε (ApoE ε2,3,4), Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme insertion/deletion (ACE I/D), methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T, C-reactive protein (CRP) -286 C>A>T, and interleukin-1β (IL-1β) C-511T. We found that larger WMH volume was associated with advanced age, hypertension, and elevated levels of homocysteine and CRP but not with low-density lipoprotein levels. Homozygotes for IL-1β -511T allele and carriers of CRP -286T allele that are associated with increased inflammatory response had larger WMH than the other allelic combinations. Carriers of the APOE ε2 allele had larger frontal WMH than ε3 homozygotes and ε4 carriers did. Thus, in healthy adults, who are free of neurological and vascular disease, genetic variants that promote inflammation and elevated levels of vascular risk biomarkers can contribute to brain abnormalities. PMID:21889590

  15. Comparative assessment of transport risks--how it can contribute to health impact assessment of transport policies.

    PubMed Central

    Kjellstrom, Tord; van Kerkhoff, Lorrae; Bammer, Gabriele; McMichael, Tony

    2003-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) and comparative risk assessment (CRA) are important tools with which governments and communities can compare and integrate different sources of information about various health impacts into a single framework for policy-makers and planners. Both tools have strengths that may be combined usefully when conducting comprehensive assessments of decisions that affect complex health issues, such as the health risks and impacts of transport policy and planning activities. As yet, however, HIA and CRA have not been applied widely to the area of transport. We draw on the limited experience of the application of these tools in the context of road transport to explore how comparative assessment of transport risks can contribute to HIA of transport policies. PMID:12894331

  16. Risk and Protective Factors Contributing to Depressive Symptoms in Vietnamese American College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Han, Meekyung; Lee, Mary

    2011-01-01

    With the demographic shifts the United States faces, understanding the contributing factors to mental well-being among minority college students is crucial. This study examines the roles of parental and peer attachment, intergenerational conflict, and perceived racial discrimination on depressive symptoms while also analyzing the mediational role…

  17. Educational Success in High-Risk Settings: Contributions of the Chicago Longitudinal Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reynolds, Arthur J.

    1999-01-01

    Provides overview of the Chicago Longitudinal Study which traces the educational and social success of a large sample of low-income children from high-poverty neighborhoods in the Chicago area. The articles in this special issue highlight the contributions of school mobility, parent involvement, educational expectations, and other family and…

  18. Risk and Protective Factors Contributing to Depressive Symptoms in Vietnamese American College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Han, Meekyung; Lee, Mary

    2011-01-01

    With the demographic shifts the United States faces, understanding the contributing factors to mental well-being among minority college students is crucial. This study examines the roles of parental and peer attachment, intergenerational conflict, and perceived racial discrimination on depressive symptoms while also analyzing the mediational role…

  19. Contributions of aryl hydrocarbon receptor genetic variants to the risk of glioma and PAH-DNA adducts.

    PubMed

    Gu, Aihua; Ji, Guixiang; Jiang, Tao; Lu, Ailin; You, Yongping; Liu, Ning; Luo, Chengzhang; Yan, Wei; Zhao, Peng

    2012-08-01

    The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) gene is involved in the response to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure. To investigate the hypothesis that the genetic variants in the AHR gene might be a causal genetic susceptibility to PAH-DNA adduct formation and glioma risk, we conducted a case-control study of 384 glioma cases and 384 cancer-free controls to explore the association between six common single-nucleotide polymorphisms of the AHR gene and glioma risk. Using PAH-DNA adducts as biomarkers, we then evaluated the association between PAH-DNA adduct levels and glioma risk based on a tissue microarray including 11 controls and 77 glioma patients. We further explored the contributions of the glioma risk-associated AHR polymorphisms to the levels of PAH-DNA adducts in glioma tissues based on 77 glioma patients. We found that PAH-DNA adduct staining existed in normal brain tissues and grades I-IV gliomas, and the staining intensity was significantly associated with the glioma grade. Two AHR polymorphisms (rs2066853 and rs2158041) demonstrated significant association with glioma risk. Intriguingly, we also found statistically significant associations between these two variants and PAH-DNA adduct levels in glioma tissue. These data suggest the contributions of AHR rs2066853 and rs2158041 to glioma risk and the PAH-DNA adduct levels, which shed new light on gene-environment interactions in the etiology of glioma. Further studies with a larger sample size and ethnically diverse populations are required to elucidate the potential biological mechanism for, as well as the impact of, the susceptibility to glioma due to genetic variants of AHR.

  20. Y chromosome polymorphisms may contribute to an increased risk of male-induced unexplained recurrent miscarriage.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yan; Li, Gang; Zuo, Man-Zhen; Fang, Jun-Hua; Li, Hai-Rong; Quan, Dan-Dan; Huang, Lu; Peng, Ping-Ping

    2017-04-28

    The present study aims to explore the relationship between the Y chromosome polymorphisms (1qh+, inv(9), 9qh+, 16qh+, group D/G, Yqh- and Yqh+) and the risk of unexplained recurrent miscarriage (URM). A total of 507 couples with URM were recruited as case group and 465 healthy couples as control group. The Y chromosome polymorphisms of the male individuals were analysed with the G-banding technique, and the results of the chromosome G-banding analysis were determined using the International Naming Standards of Human Genetics (ISCN). Logistic regression analysis was used to analyse the risk factors for URM. The detection rate of Y chromosome polymorphisms in the case group (12.03%) was higher than that in the control group (2.15%). Y chromosome polymorphisms were detected at significantly higher rates in the case group than in the control group. Using the normal Y chromosomes in individuals of the case group as reference, the partners of their counterparts were more likely to experience miscarriage. The couples who were Y chromosome-polymorphism carriers had shorter gestational age, increased frequency of URM and longer average interval between pregnancies. The results of logistic regression analysis revealed that Y chromosome polymorphisms, shorter gestational age, a higher frequency of miscarriage and longer pregnancy interval were independent risk factors for URM. Y chromosome polymorphisms may be associated with the risk of URM and may play an important role in the development of URM. © 2017 The Author(s).

  1. Genetic variants in IRS2 may contribute to obesity and diabetes familial risk in Hispanic children

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    IRS2 is a key regulator of glucose homeostasis and an obesity candidate gene, however, its role in children’s susceptibility to obesity and diabetes risk is unknown. Our specific aim was to identify genetic variants explaining a statistically significant quantitative trait locus on chromosome 13q fo...

  2. Investigation of Factors Contributing to Diabetes Risk in American Indian/Alaska Native Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Islam-Zwart, Kayleen; Cawston, Alvina

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the relationship between family history, sedentary behaviors, and childhood risk for type 2 diabetes. Participants were 480 students attending schools on or near an American Indian reservation. Data were collected through survey and BMI measurement. Children who frequently watched television or played video games did not…

  3. Does ethnicity contribute to the control of cardiovascular risk factors among patients with type 2 diabetes?

    PubMed

    Lee, Ping Yein; Cheong, Ai Theng; Zaiton, Ahmad; Mastura, Ismail; Chew, Boon-How; Sazlina, Sharrif G; Adam, Bujang Mohamad; Syed Alwi, Syed Abdul Rahman; Jamaiyah, Haniff; Sriwahyu, Taher

    2013-07-01

    This study aimed to examine the control of cardiovascular risk factors among the ethnic groups with type 2 diabetes in Malaysia. The authors analyzed the data of 70 092 adults from the Malaysian diabetes registry database. Malays had the worst achievement of target for most of the risk factors. Indians had poor achievement of control for waist circumference (odds ratio [OR] = 0.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.6-0.7) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR = 0.5, 95% CI = 0.4-0.5). As compared with the Malays, the Chinese had a better achievement of target control for the risk factors, including the following: body mass index (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.2-1.4), blood pressure (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.3-1.4), total cholesterol (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.6-1.8), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.6-1.8), glycated hemoglobin A1c (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3-1.4) and fasting blood glucose (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3-1.5). Ethnicity, sociocultural factors, and psychobehavioral factors should be addressed in designing and management strategies for the control of cardiovascular risk factors among type 2 diabetes patients.

  4. Contributions of Cooperative Education in Preparing At-Risk Students for Post-High School Transition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gemici, Sinan; Rojewski, Jay W.

    2010-01-01

    Work-based learning interventions, particularly cooperative education, are a viable way to support the post-high school transition process, enhance work-related cognitive development, and increase the occupational engagement of at-risk youth. Using propensity score matching to analyze data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002…

  5. The Contribution of Fetal Drug Exposure to Temperament: Potential Teratogenic Effects on Neuropsychiatric Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weiss, Sandra J.; St. Jonn-Seed, Mary; Harris-Muchell, Carolyn

    2007-01-01

    Background: Preliminary evidence indicates that fetal drug exposure may be associated with alterations in temperament. However, studies often do not dissociate the potential effects of drug exposure from other perinatal or environmental factors that could influence temperament phenotypes. Methods: High risk children (n = 120) were followed from…

  6. Opioids Contribute to Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis of 8 Cohort Studies

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Feihu; Zhu, Yanhong; Zhang, Xiguang; Zhang, Chuanlin; Wang, Shuangneng; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the association between chronic opioid use for non-cancer pain and fracture risk by conducting a meta-analysis of cohort studies. Methods Cohort studies were identified by searching PubMed and EMBASE from their inception to July 2014. A fracture was considered an endpoint. The information was extracted by two authors independently. When the heterogeneity was significant, a random-effects model was used to calculate the overall pooled risk estimates. Results Eight cohort studies were included in the final meta-analysis. On the basis of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), six studies were considered to be of high quality. The overall combined relative risk for the use of opioids and fractures was 1.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-2.34). A subgroup analysis revealed the sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed. Conclusions This meta-analysis of cohort studies demonstrates that opioids significantly increase the risk of fractures. PMID:26030421

  7. Opioids contribute to fracture risk: a meta-analysis of 8 cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Teng, Zhaowei; Zhu, Yun; Wu, Feihu; Zhu, Yanhong; Zhang, Xiguang; Zhang, Chuanlin; Wang, Shuangneng; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the association between chronic opioid use for non-cancer pain and fracture risk by conducting a meta-analysis of cohort studies. Cohort studies were identified by searching PubMed and EMBASE from their inception to July 2014. A fracture was considered an endpoint. The information was extracted by two authors independently. When the heterogeneity was significant, a random-effects model was used to calculate the overall pooled risk estimates. Eight cohort studies were included in the final meta-analysis. On the basis of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), six studies were considered to be of high quality. The overall combined relative risk for the use of opioids and fractures was 1.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-2.34). A subgroup analysis revealed the sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed. This meta-analysis of cohort studies demonstrates that opioids significantly increase the risk of fractures.

  8. Managing wildfire risk in fire-prone landscapes: how are private landowners contributing?

    Treesearch

    Joan O’Callaghan; A. Paige Fischer; Susan Charnley

    2013-01-01

    The fire-prone landscapes of the West include both public and private lands. Wildfire burns indiscriminately across property boundaries, which means that the way potential fuels are managed on one piece of property can affect wildfire risk on neighboring lands. Paige Fischer and Susan Charnley, social scientists with the Pacific Northwest Research Station, surveyed...

  9. Risk and Protective Factors Contributing to the Longitudinal Psychosocial Well-Being of Adopted Foster Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmel, Cassandra

    2007-01-01

    This study is based on a statewide longitudinal sample of adopted foster youth and explores the relationship between early pre-adoption risk factors and subsequent elevated levels of psychopathology symptomatology. One central goal of the study was to evaluate the impact of preadoption stressors (prenatal drug/nicotine exposure, early…

  10. Contributions of Cooperative Education in Preparing At-Risk Students for Post-High School Transition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gemici, Sinan; Rojewski, Jay W.

    2010-01-01

    Work-based learning interventions, particularly cooperative education, are a viable way to support the post-high school transition process, enhance work-related cognitive development, and increase the occupational engagement of at-risk youth. Using propensity score matching to analyze data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002…

  11. Risk of lung cancer from radon exposure: contribution of recently published studies of uranium miners.

    PubMed

    Tirmarche, M; Harrison, J; Laurier, D; Blanchardon, E; Paquet, F; Marsh, J

    2012-01-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recently estimated the risk of lung cancer associated with radon exposure, and a statement was issued in ICRP Publication 115. This was based on recent epidemiological studies and the results from a joint analysis of cohorts of Czech, French, and German uranium miners, and indicated that the excess relative risk of lung cancer per unit of exposure should be expressed with consideration of chronic exposure over more than 10 years, by modelling time since median exposure, age attained or age at exposure, and taking in account, if possible, interaction between radon and tobacco. The lifetime excess absolute risk (LEAR) calculated from occupational exposure studies is close to 5 × 10(-4) per working level month (WLM) (14 × 10(-5) per hmJ/m(3)). LEAR values estimated using risk models derived from both miners and domestic exposure studies are in good agreement after accounting for factors such as sex, attained age, and exposure scenario. A sensitivity analysis highlighted the high dependence of background mortality rates on LEAR estimates. Using lung cancer rates among Euro-American males instead of the ICRP reference rates (males and females, and Euro-American and Asian populations), the estimated LEAR is close to 7 × 10(-4) per WLM (20 × 10(-5) per hm J/m(3)). Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. The Contribution of Fetal Drug Exposure to Temperament: Potential Teratogenic Effects on Neuropsychiatric Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weiss, Sandra J.; St. Jonn-Seed, Mary; Harris-Muchell, Carolyn

    2007-01-01

    Background: Preliminary evidence indicates that fetal drug exposure may be associated with alterations in temperament. However, studies often do not dissociate the potential effects of drug exposure from other perinatal or environmental factors that could influence temperament phenotypes. Methods: High risk children (n = 120) were followed from…

  13. Risk and Protective Factors Contributing to the Longitudinal Psychosocial Well-Being of Adopted Foster Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmel, Cassandra

    2007-01-01

    This study is based on a statewide longitudinal sample of adopted foster youth and explores the relationship between early pre-adoption risk factors and subsequent elevated levels of psychopathology symptomatology. One central goal of the study was to evaluate the impact of preadoption stressors (prenatal drug/nicotine exposure, early…

  14. Contribution of molecular analyses to the estimation of the risk of congenital myotonic dystrophy.

    PubMed

    Cobo, A M; Poza, J J; Martorell, L; López de Munain, A; Emparanza, J I; Baiget, M

    1995-02-01

    A molecular analysis of the maternal and child CTG repeat size and intergenerational amplification was performed in order to estimate the risk of having a child with congenital myotonic dystrophy (CMD). In a study of 124 affected mother-child pairs (42 mother-CMD and 82 mother-non-CMD) the mean maternal CTG allele in CMD cases was three times higher (700 repeats) than in non-CMD cases (236 repeats). When the maternal allele was in the 50-300 repeats range, 90% of children were non-CMD. In contrast, when the maternal allele was greater than 300 repeats, 59% inherited the congenital form. Furthermore, the risk of having a CMD child is also related to the intergenerational amplification, which was significantly greater in the mother-CMD pairs than in the mother-non-CMD pairs. Although the risk of giving birth to a CMD child always exists for affected mothers, our data show that such a risk is considerably higher if the maternal allele is greater than 300 repeats.

  15. PSCA rs2294008 C > T polymorphism contributes to gastric and bladder cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Meng; Wang, Xi-Jing; Ma, Yun-Feng; Ma, Xiao-Bin; Dai, Zhi-Ming; Lv, Ye; Lin, Shuai; Liu, Xing-Han; Yang, Peng-Tao; Dai, Zhi-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Background Previous studies suggested genetic variations in PSCA (prostate stem cell antigen) may confer the susceptibility of cancer. Many case–control studies have reported the relationship between PSCA rs2294008 C > T polymorphism and cancer, especially gastric cancer and bladder cancer. However, the results are inconsistent. This meta-analysis is aimed at evaluating the association of rs2294008 polymorphism with cancer risk. Methods The databases of PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, EMBASE, and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched for related publications. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to estimate the strength of the associations. Fixed models were used when heterogeneity among studies was not detected, otherwise the random model was used. Results Twenty-six studies from 24 articles with 30,050 multiple cancer cases and 51,670 controls were pooled into this meta-analysis. The results showed that the rs2294008 polymorphism was associated with increased cancer risk in any genetic model (T vs C, OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.08–1.28; TT vs CC, OR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.14–1.62; TC vs CC, OR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.17–1.44; TT + TC vs CC, OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.18–1.49; TT vs TC + CC, OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.02–1.30). In stratified analysis by cancer type, we found that the T allele had a significant high risk of gastric and bladder cancer, but not in other cancers. In subgroup analysis by ethnicity, increased cancer risk was found in both Asians and Caucasians. Conclusion Our study suggested that the PSCA rs2294008 C > T polymorphism is a risk factor for cancer, especially in gastric and bladder cancer. PMID:25709466

  16. Abdominal obesity and the metabolic syndrome: contribution to global cardiometabolic risk.

    PubMed

    Després, Jean-Pierre; Lemieux, Isabelle; Bergeron, Jean; Pibarot, Philippe; Mathieu, Patrick; Larose, Eric; Rodés-Cabau, Josep; Bertrand, Olivier F; Poirier, Paul

    2008-06-01

    There is currently substantial confusion between the conceptual definition of the metabolic syndrome and the clinical screening parameters and cut-off values proposed by various organizations (NCEP-ATP III, IDF, WHO, etc) to identify individuals with the metabolic syndrome. Although it is clear that in vivo insulin resistance is a key abnormality associated with an atherogenic, prothrombotic, and inflammatory profile which has been named by some the "metabolic syndrome" or by others "syndrome X" or "insulin resistance syndrome", it is more and more recognized that the most prevalent form of this constellation of metabolic abnormalities linked to insulin resistance is found in patients with abdominal obesity, especially with an excess of intra-abdominal or visceral adipose tissue. We have previously proposed that visceral obesity may represent a clinical intermediate phenotype reflecting the relative inability of subcutaneous adipose tissue to act as a protective metabolic sink for the clearance and storage of the extra energy derived from dietary triglycerides, leading to ectopic fat deposition in visceral adipose depots, skeletal muscle, liver, heart, etc. Thus, visceral obesity may partly be a marker of a dysmetabolic state and partly a cause of the metabolic syndrome. Although waist circumference is a better marker of abdominal fat accumulation than the body mass index, an elevated waistline alone is not sufficient to diagnose visceral obesity and we have proposed that an elevated fasting triglyceride concentration could represent, when waist circumference is increased, a simple clinical marker of excess visceral/ectopic fat. Finally, a clinical diagnosis of visceral obesity, insulin resistance, or of the metabolic syndrome is not sufficient to assess global risk of cardiovascular disease. To achieve this goal, physicians should first pay attention to the classical risk factors while also considering the additional risk resulting from the presence of abdominal

  17. Genetic Factors Influencing Coagulation Factor XIII B-Subunit Contribute to Risk of Ischemic Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Traylor, Matthew; Hysi, Pirro G.; Bevan, Stephen; Dichgans, Martin; Rothwell, Peter M.; Worrall, Bradford B.; Seshadri, Sudha; Sudlow, Cathie; Williams, Frances M.K.; Markus, Hugh S.; Lewis, Cathryn M.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose— Abnormal coagulation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of ischemic stroke, but how this association is mediated and whether it differs between ischemic stroke subtypes is unknown. We determined the shared genetic risk between 14 coagulation factors and ischemic stroke and its subtypes. Methods— Using genome-wide association study results for 14 coagulation factors from the population-based TwinsUK sample (N≈2000 for each factor), meta-analysis results from the METASTROKE consortium ischemic stroke genome-wide association study (12 389 cases, 62 004 controls), and genotype data for 9520 individuals from the WTCCC2 ischemic stroke study (3548 cases, 5972 controls—the largest METASTROKE subsample), we explored shared genetic risk for coagulation and stroke. We performed three analyses: (1) a test for excess concordance (or discordance) in single nucleotide polymorphism effect direction across coagulation and stroke, (2) an estimation of the joint effect of multiple coagulation-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in stroke, and (3) an evaluation of common genetic risk between coagulation and stroke. Results— One coagulation factor, factor XIII subunit B (FXIIIB), showed consistent effects in the concordance analysis, the estimation of polygenic risk, and the validation with genotype data, with associations specific to the cardioembolic stroke subtype. Effect directions for FXIIIB-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms were significantly discordant with cardioembolic disease (smallest P=5.7×10−04); the joint effect of FXIIIB-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms was significantly predictive of ischemic stroke (smallest P=1.8×10−04) and the cardioembolic subtype (smallest P=1.7×10−04). We found substantial negative genetic covariation between FXIIIB and ischemic stroke (rG=−0.71, P=0.01) and the cardioembolic subtype (rG=−0.80, P=0.03). Conclusions— Genetic markers associated with low FXIIIB levels

  18. Genetic Factors Influencing Coagulation Factor XIII B-Subunit Contribute to Risk of Ischemic Stroke.

    PubMed

    Hanscombe, Ken B; Traylor, Matthew; Hysi, Pirro G; Bevan, Stephen; Dichgans, Martin; Rothwell, Peter M; Worrall, Bradford B; Seshadri, Sudha; Sudlow, Cathie; Williams, Frances M K; Markus, Hugh S; Lewis, Cathryn M

    2015-08-01

    Abnormal coagulation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of ischemic stroke, but how this association is mediated and whether it differs between ischemic stroke subtypes is unknown. We determined the shared genetic risk between 14 coagulation factors and ischemic stroke and its subtypes. Using genome-wide association study results for 14 coagulation factors from the population-based TwinsUK sample (N≈2000 for each factor), meta-analysis results from the METASTROKE consortium ischemic stroke genome-wide association study (12 389 cases, 62 004 controls), and genotype data for 9520 individuals from the WTCCC2 ischemic stroke study (3548 cases, 5972 controls-the largest METASTROKE subsample), we explored shared genetic risk for coagulation and stroke. We performed three analyses: (1) a test for excess concordance (or discordance) in single nucleotide polymorphism effect direction across coagulation and stroke, (2) an estimation of the joint effect of multiple coagulation-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in stroke, and (3) an evaluation of common genetic risk between coagulation and stroke. One coagulation factor, factor XIII subunit B (FXIIIB), showed consistent effects in the concordance analysis, the estimation of polygenic risk, and the validation with genotype data, with associations specific to the cardioembolic stroke subtype. Effect directions for FXIIIB-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms were significantly discordant with cardioembolic disease (smallest P=5.7×10(-04)); the joint effect of FXIIIB-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms was significantly predictive of ischemic stroke (smallest P=1.8×10(-04)) and the cardioembolic subtype (smallest P=1.7×10(-04)). We found substantial negative genetic covariation between FXIIIB and ischemic stroke (rG=-0.71, P=0.01) and the cardioembolic subtype (rG=-0.80, P=0.03). Genetic markers associated with low FXIIIB levels increase risk of ischemic stroke cardioembolic subtype. © 2015 The

  19. Risk factors for pediatric asthma. Contributions of poverty, race, and urban residence.

    PubMed

    Aligne, C A; Auinger, P; Byrd, R S; Weitzman, M

    2000-09-01

    The Child Health Supplement to the 1988 National Health Interview Survey was used to examine parent-reported current asthma among a nationally representative sample of 17,110 children zero to 17 yr of age. Numerous demographic variables were analyzed for independent associations with asthma using modified stepwise logistic regression, with models including specific combinations of risk factors. Black children had higher rates of asthma than did white children in unadjusted analyses, but after controlling for multiple factors, black race was not a significant correlate of asthma (adjusted odds ratio = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.63 to 1.21). Compared with nonurban white children, urban children, both black and white, were at significantly increased risk of asthma: urban and black (adjusted OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.86), urban and white (adjusted OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.48), whereas nonurban black children were not: nonurban and black (adjusted OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.83 to 1.61). Similarly, compared with nonurban, nonpoor children, urban and poor (adjusted OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.95), urban and nonpoor (adjusted OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.004 to 1.48), urban children, both poor and nonpoor, were at significantly increased risk of asthma, whereas nonurban poor children were not: nonurban and poor (adjusted OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.72 to 1.48). These results suggest that the higher prevalence of asthma among black children is not due to race or to low income per se, and that all children living in an urban setting are at increased risk for asthma.

  20. How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lumpkins, S. B.; Mindock, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP’s goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

  1. Investigation of factors contributing to diabetes risk in american indian/alaska native youth.

    PubMed

    Islam-Zwart, Kayleen; Cawston, Alvina

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the relationship between family history, sedentary behaviors, and childhood risk for type 2 diabetes. Participants were 480 students attending schools on or near an American Indian reservation. Data were collected through survey and BMI measurement. Children who frequently watched television or played video games did not significantly differ in BMI compared to peers. However, children with a parental history of diabetes had significantly higher BMIs than children without.

  2. How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lumpkins, Sarah; Mindock, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP's goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

  3. Selective contribution of diabetes and other cardiovascular risk factors to cardiac autonomic dysfunction in the general population.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, D; Zentai, C; Perz, S; Rathmann, W; Haastert, B; Meisinger, C; Löwel, H

    2006-04-01

    Both cardiac autonomic dysfunction adn cardiovascular risk factors are related to and excess risk of mortality. We sought to determine whether the major cardiovascular risk factors are associated with diminished heart rate variability (HRV), prolonged QTc interval, or increased QT dispersion (QTD). Male (n = 1030) and female (n = 957) subjects, aged 55-74 years, who participated in the population-based MONICA Augsburg survey 1989/90 were assessed for the presence of cardiovascular risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, smoking, and low physical activity. Lowest quartiles for time domain indexes of HRV (SD of R-R intervals [SDNN], max-min difference), QTc > 440 ms, and QTD > 60 ms determined from 12-lead resting ECG were used as cutpoints. In men, after adjustment for age and alcohol consumption, significant independent determinants for the lowest quartiles of SDNN were diabetes, obesity, and smoking. Independent contributors to prolonged QTc were hypertension, obesity, smoking, and low physical activity, whereas for increased QTD it was only hypertension. In women, diabetes was the only contributor to low SDNN, and hypertension was the only determinant of prolonged QTc. In conclusion, diabetes is the primary determinant of reduced HRV in the general population, while hypertension is the primary contributor to prolonged QTc in both sexes. However, obesity and smoking contribute to autonomic dysfunction in men but not women. Thus, a selectivity and sex-related differences exist among the various cardiovascular risk factors as to their influence on autonomic dysfunction.

  4. Exposure to pro-smoking media in college students: does type of media channel differentially contribute to smoking risk?

    PubMed

    Shadel, William G; Martino, Steven C; Setodji, Claude; Scharf, Deborah

    2013-06-01

    There are almost no data on whether the different channels through which pro-smoking media appear (i.e., point-of-sale advertising, movie smoking) differently influence smoking. This study used ecological momentary assessment to examine whether differences in smoking risk were observed for exposures to different pro-smoking media channels. College students (n = 134) carried smartphones for 21 days, recording their exposures to pro-smoking media and the media channels for that exposure and responding to three randomly issued control prompts per day. Participants answered questions about their future smoking risk after each pro-smoking media exposure and random prompt. Participants had elevated future smoking risk following exposure to pro-smoking media at point of sale (p < 0.001); smoking risk at times of exposure to smoking in movies did not differ from risk measured during control prompts (p = 0.78). There is merit to examining the relative contribution of different pro-smoking media channels to smoking behavior.

  5. Inability to activate Rac1-dependent forgetting contributes to behavioral inflexibility in mutants of multiple autism-risk genes.

    PubMed

    Dong, Tao; He, Jing; Wang, Shiqing; Wang, Lianzhang; Cheng, Yuqi; Zhong, Yi

    2016-07-05

    The etiology of autism is so complicated because it involves the effects of variants of several hundred risk genes along with the contribution of environmental factors. Therefore, it has been challenging to identify the causal paths that lead to the core autistic symptoms such as social deficit, repetitive behaviors, and behavioral inflexibility. As an alternative approach, extensive efforts have been devoted to identifying the convergence of the targets and functions of the autism-risk genes to facilitate mapping out causal paths. In this study, we used a reversal-learning task to measure behavioral flexibility in Drosophila and determined the effects of loss-of-function mutations in multiple autism-risk gene homologs in flies. Mutations of five autism-risk genes with diversified molecular functions all led to a similar phenotype of behavioral inflexibility indicated by impaired reversal-learning. These reversal-learning defects resulted from the inability to forget or rather, specifically, to activate Rac1 (Ras-related C3 botulinum toxin substrate 1)-dependent forgetting. Thus, behavior-evoked activation of Rac1-dependent forgetting has a converging function for autism-risk genes.

  6. The independent contribution of diabetic foot ulcer on lower extremity amputation and mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Martins-Mendes, Daniela; Monteiro-Soares, Matilde; Boyko, Edward John; Ribeiro, Manuela; Barata, Pedro; Lima, Jorge; Soares, Raquel

    2014-01-01

    To estimate 3-year risk for diabetic foot ulcer (DFU), lower extremity amputation (LEA) and death; determine predictive variables and assess derived models accuracy. Retrospective cohort study including all subjects with diabetes enrolled in our diabetic foot outpatient clinic from beginning 2002 until middle 2010. Data were collected from clinical records. 644 subjects with mean age of 65.1 (±11.2) and diabetes duration of 16.1 (±10.8) years. Cumulative incidence was 26.6% for DFU, 5.8% for LEA and 14.0% for death. In multivariate analysis, physical impairment, peripheral arterial disease complication history, complication count and previous DFU were associated with DFU; complication count, foot pulses and previous DFU with LEA and age, complication count and previous DFU with death. Predictive models' areas under the ROC curves ranged from 0.80 to 0.83. A simplified model including previous DFU and complication count presented high accuracy. Previous DFU was associated with all outcomes, even when adjusted for complication count, in addition to more complex models. DFU seems more than a marker of complication status, having independent impact on LEA and mortality risk. Proposed models may be applicable in healthcare settings to identify patients at higher risk of DFU, LEA and death. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The independent contribution of diabetic foot ulcer on lower extremity amputation and mortality risk

    PubMed Central

    Martins-Mendes, D.; Monteiro-Soares, M.; Boyko, E. J.; Ribeiro, M.; Barata, P.; Lima, J.; Soares, R.

    2014-01-01

    Aims To estimate 3-year risk for diabetic foot ulcer (DFU), lower extremity amputation (LEA) and death; determine predictive variables and assess derived models accuracy. Material and Methods Retrospective cohort study including all subjects with diabetes enrolled in our diabetic foot outpatient clinic from beginning 2002 until middle 2010. Data was collected from clinical records. Results 644 subjects with mean age of 65.1 (±11.2) and diabetes duration of 16.1 (±10.8) years. Cumulative incidence was 26.6% for DFU, 5.8% for LEA and 14.0% for death. In multivariate analysis, physical impairment, peripheral arterial disease complication history, complication count and previous DFU were associated with DFU; complication count, foot pulses and previous DFU with LEA and age, complication count and previous DFU with death. Predictive models’ areas under the ROC curves from 0.80 to 0.83. A simplified model including previous DFU and complication count presented high accuracy. Previous DFU was associated with all outcomes, even when adjusted for complication count, in addition to more complex models. Conclusions DFU seems more than a marker of complication status, having independent impact on LEA and mortality risk. Proposed models may be applicable in healthcare settings to identify patients at higher risk of DFU, LEA and death. PMID:24877985

  8. Contribution of Shellfish Consumption to Lower Mercury Health Risk for Residents in Northern Jiaozhou Bay, China

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Fish and marine mammal consumption are an important pathway for human exposure to mercury. The low mercury content in shellfish poses a low mercury health risk to people who consume shellfish. The objectives of this study are to detect mercury concentrations in different species of shellfish and to calculate the mercury health risk from shellfish consumption among traditional residents near northern Jiaozhou Bay. A total of 356 shellfish samples, which comprised 7 species from 5 different places in northern Jiaozhou Bay, were collected from April to June in 2012. The average mercury content in the collected shellfish ranged from 0.024 mg·kg−1 to 0.452 mg·kg−1. A total of 44 shellfish samples (12.36%) had mercury levels exceeding the national pollution-free aquatic products limit (0.3 mg·kg−1). Generally, the viscus had the highest mercury content among all parts of the shellfish. A positive correlation between mercury content and total weight/edible part weight was found in most species of the collected shellfish. The results showed that shellfish consumption resulted in the lower risk of mercury exposure to residents based on the calculation of daily intake (DI) and target hazard quotient (THQ). PMID:26101470

  9. The Contribution of Equitation Science to Minimising Horse-Related Risks to Humans

    PubMed Central

    Starling, Melissa; McLean, Andrew; McGreevy, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Simple Summary Equitation science describes an approach to horse training and riding that focuses on embracing the cognitive abilities of horses, their natural behaviour, and how human riders can use signalling and rewards to best effect. This approach is concerned with both horse welfare and rider safety, and this review discusses how equitation science can minimise risk to humans around horses and enhance horse welfare. Abstract Equitation science is an evidence-based approach to horse training and riding that focuses on a thorough understanding of both equine ethology and learning theory. This combination leads to more effective horse training, but also plays a role in keeping horse riders and trainers safe around horses. Equitation science underpins ethical equitation, and recognises the limits of the horse’s cognitive and physical abilities. Equitation is an ancient practice that has benefited from a rich tradition that sees it flourishing in contemporary sporting pursuits. Despite its history, horse-riding is an activity for which neither horses nor humans evolved, and it brings with it significant risks to the safety of both species. This review outlines the reasons horses may behave in ways that endanger humans and how training choices can exacerbate this. It then discusses the recently introduced 10 Principles of Equitation Science and explains how following these principles can minimise horse-related risk to humans and enhance horse welfare. PMID:26907354

  10. Assessment of the risks of climate change in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mach, K. J.; Field, C. B.; Mastrandrea, M.; Barros, V.

    2013-12-01

    For the past two decades, IPCC Working Group II has developed comprehensive periodic assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In multiple rounds of drafting and review, author teams for each report evaluate the state of knowledge based on extensive scientific and technical information across disciplines. The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5), to be completed in 2014, explores the ways climate change is shifting patterns of risks and the implications for response. The risks of climate change often emerge from complex interactions typified by inherent uncertainties. Most fundamentally, climate-related risks result from physical hazards interacting with vulnerable and exposed people, assets, and ecosystems. The WGII AR5 assesses observed impacts of climate change, which may in some cases demonstrate risks already influenced by climate change, and it also assesses future risks affected by climate change and societal development. In communicating risks over the coming century, the assessment uses timeframe as a key distinction. Risks over the next few decades will evolve as socioeconomic trends interact with global temperature increase that is similar across emissions scenarios. During this near-term era of committed climate change, societal responses, particularly adaptations, will influence near-term outcomes. Other risks evolve in the longer term, varying across alternative climate change and development futures. Near-term and ongoing mitigation efforts, as well as development, will determine the risks of climate change in the second half of the 21st century, which can be considered an era of climate options. The WGII AR5 evaluates the ways impacts are experienced through extremes, not just through mean changes, and it considers the different types of vulnerability across regions and contexts. Ultimately, managing the risks of climate change can be considered a challenge of decisionmaking under

  11. Big data in health care: using analytics to identify and manage high-risk and high-cost patients.

    PubMed

    Bates, David W; Saria, Suchi; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Shah, Anand; Escobar, Gabriel

    2014-07-01

    The US health care system is rapidly adopting electronic health records, which will dramatically increase the quantity of clinical data that are available electronically. Simultaneously, rapid progress has been made in clinical analytics--techniques for analyzing large quantities of data and gleaning new insights from that analysis--which is part of what is known as big data. As a result, there are unprecedented opportunities to use big data to reduce the costs of health care in the United States. We present six use cases--that is, key examples--where some of the clearest opportunities exist to reduce costs through the use of big data: high-cost patients, readmissions, triage, decompensation (when a patient's condition worsens), adverse events, and treatment optimization for diseases affecting multiple organ systems. We discuss the types of insights that are likely to emerge from clinical analytics, the types of data needed to obtain such insights, and the infrastructure--analytics, algorithms, registries, assessment scores, monitoring devices, and so forth--that organizations will need to perform the necessary analyses and to implement changes that will improve care while reducing costs. Our findings have policy implications for regulatory oversight, ways to address privacy concerns, and the support of research on analytics.

  12. Environmental Risk Factors for Autism: Do They Help Cause De Novo Genetic Mutations That Contribute to the Disorder?

    PubMed Central

    Kinney, Dennis K.; Barch, Daniel H.; Chayka, Bogdan; Napoleon, Siena; Munir, Kerim M.

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has discovered that a number of genetic risk factors for autism are de novo mutations. Advanced parental age at the time of conception is associated with increased risk for both autism and de novo mutations. We investigated the hypothesis that other environmental factors associated with increased risk for autism might also be mutagenic and contribute to autism by causing de novo mutations. A survey of the research literature identified 9 environmental factors for which increased pre-conceptual exposure appears to be associated with increased risk for autism. Five of these factors – mercury, cadmium, nickel, trichloroethylene, and vinyl chloride – are established mutagens. Another four – including residence in regions that are urbanized, located at higher latitudes, or experience high levels of precipitation – are associated with decreased sun exposure and increased risk for vitamin D deficiency. Vitamin D plays important roles in repairing DNA damage and protecting against oxidative stress – a key cause of DNA damage. Factors associated with vitamin D deficiency will thus contribute to higher mutation rates and impaired repair of DNA. We note how de novo mutations may also help explain why the concordance rate for autism is so markedly higher in monozygotic than dizygotic twins. De novo mutations may also explain in part why the prevalence of autism is so remarkably high, given the evidence for a strong role of genetic factors and the low fertility of individuals with autism – and resultant selection pressure against autism susceptibility genes. These several lines of evidence provide support for the hypothesis, and warrant new research approaches – which we suggest – to address limitations in existing studies. The hypothesis has implications for understanding possible etiologic roles of de novo mutations in autism, and it suggests possible approaches to primary prevention of the disorder, such as addressing widespread vitamin D

  13. [Program designed for the parents of babies at risk: contribution to the training of the nursing student].

    PubMed

    Scochi, Carmen Gracinda Silvan; Nogueira, Fernanda dos Santos; Pereira, Fabíola Lima; Brunherotti, Mariana Ribeiro

    2002-01-01

    The present study is related to the academic education of nursing students who participated in a public service program designed for parents of high-risk newborns assisted in neonatal units. It is a descriptive study that has as its objective to analyze the contribution of such professional experience for those students. The subjects of this investigation were nursing students aged 18 to 22 years old. These students performed ludic, educational and leisure activities with parents of high-risk newborns assisted in a university school in the city of Ribeirão Preto. Data were collected by means of a questionnaires through which the subjects reported their experience in the project (advantages, disadvantages and contributions to their education). The answers were analyzed through the thematic analysis technique. Results showed that the program expanded students' view concerning nursing care and hospital care (beyond disease). It also improved interpersonal relationships; promoted the development of skills and the acquisition of knowledge and values. Thus contributing to students academic education and creativity.

  14. Factors contributing to impaired self-awareness of cognitive functioning in an HIV positive and at-risk population

    PubMed Central

    Juengst, Shannon; Skidmore, Elizabeth; Pramuka, Michael; McCue, Michael; Becker, James

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To examine the association between self-awareness of cognitive impairment and age, selected mood disorders, and type and severity of cognitive impairment in a sample of individuals with HIV/AIDS and at risk for HIV. Method 75 subjects, 52 HIV+ and 23 at risk for HIV completed a psychosocial interview, the Patient’s Assessment of Own Functioning (PAOF) questionnaire, and a battery of neuropsychological tests. Based upon the differences between their clinical impairment and self-reported impairment, subjects were classified as being “Underestimators”, “Good Awareness”, or “Impaired Awareness” with regard to self-awareness. Results Those with more severe cognitive impairment were less aware than those with normal or borderline cognitive impairment. A one-way ANOVA suggested that the Impaired Awareness group differed significantly from the Underestimators on the Rey Figure Immediate and Delayed Recall tasks, and from both the Underestimators and Good Awarenesss groups on the Digit Symbol Substitution Task. There were significant differences among all awareness groups on the test of Simple Reaction Time. Furthermore there is some suggestion that age may contribute to impaired self-awareness. The role of HIV in self-awareness remains unclear, as both, individuals with HIV and at risk, demonstrated impaired self-awareness. Conclusions Overall, impaired awareness was associated with poorer test performance, suggesting a relationship between awareness and sustained complex attention and visual spatial processing. This research has implications for understanding factors contributing to poor awareness among individuals with cognitive impairment. PMID:21870997

  15. Factors contributing to impaired self-awareness of cognitive functioning in an HIV positive and at-risk population.

    PubMed

    Juengst, Shannon; Skidmore, Elizabeth; Pramuka, Michael; McCue, Michael; Becker, James

    2012-01-01

    To examine the association between self-awareness of cognitive impairment and age, selected mood disorders, and type and severity of cognitive impairment in a sample of individuals with HIV/AIDS and at risk for HIV. 75 subjects, 52 HIV+ and 23 at risk for HIV completed a psychosocial interview, the Patient's Assessment of Own Functioning (PAOF) questionnaire, and a battery of neuropsychological tests. Based upon the differences between their clinical impairment and self-reported impairment, subjects were classified as being "Underestimators", "Good Awareness", or "Impaired Awareness" with regard to self-awareness. Those with more severe cognitive impairment were less aware than those with normal or borderline cognitive impairment. A one-way ANOVA suggested that the Impaired Awareness group differed significantly from the Underestimators on the Rey Figure Immediate and Delayed Recall tasks, and from both the Underestimators and Good Awarenesss groups on the Digit Symbol Substitution Task. There were significant differences among all awareness groups on the test of Simple Reaction Time. Furthermore there is some suggestion that age may contribute to impaired self-awareness. The role of HIV in self-awareness remains unclear, as both, individuals with HIV and at risk, demonstrated impaired self-awareness. Overall, impaired awareness was associated with poorer test performance, suggesting a relationship between awareness and sustained complex attention and visual spatial processing. This research has implications for understanding factors contributing to poor awareness among individuals with cognitive impairment.

  16. Analytical characterization of movements of the spinal column and risk assessment due to repeated movements of the upper limbs of building painters.

    PubMed

    Antonucci, Andrea; Forcella, Laura; Bonfiglioli, Roberta; Boscolo, Paolo; Violante, Francesco Saverio

    2016-09-01

    Manual activities of construction workers may induce musculoskeletal disorders. This study on a group of painters aimed to analytically characterize movements of the spinal column by both lumbar motion monitor and television cameras and to determine, using the Occupational Repetitive Actions (OCRA) Index method, the risk exerted by repeated movements of the upper limbs. The main results are: painting with a roller generally exposes workers to a lesser risk for upper limbs than painting with a brush; a roller-stick fixed at the wrong length can lead to stretching of the back at lumbar and cervical levels; to remain within the range of 'acceptable risk' (OCRA Index evaluation), a worker should not paint a vertical wall for over 3 h if using a roller and 2.5 h if painting with a brush; and, on average, a painter who paints for 5 h in a day lifts the bucket about 120,140 times.

  17. Evaluating explosive eruption risk at European volcanoes: Contributions from the EU-funded EXPLORIS project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neri, A.; Baxter, P. J.

    2009-04-01

    The potential for great losses of life and economic disruption in violent eruptions has emerged as a reality with the recent rapid growth of human settlements in the vicinity of many explosive volcanoes around the world. EXPLORIS (acronym of the EU-funded project "Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes") and the former CASUALRUPT project (acronym of the EC project entitled "Human and Structural Vulnerability Assessment for Emergency Planning in a Future Eruption of Vesuvius using Volcanic Simulation and Casualty Modelling") are probably the first major multi-disciplinary projects to develop quantitative methods for making risk assessments and developing evidence-based planning for disaster management at explosive-erupting volcanoes. Vesuvius is a prime example, as a future eruption could have a catastrophic impact on the sprawling mega-city around the Bay of Naples, and is amongst the most serious natural disaster threats the EU faces in the foreseeable future. Acknowledging scientific uncertainty and the need to measure it has emerged recently in many disparate scientific fields as "evidence science" and developing new methods of formally incorporating it and the widely differing views of scientists into decision making was one of the main goals of EXPLORIS. New 3-D numerical models of explosive processes using supercomputers were also ground-breaking in the studies of volcanic impacts in the built environment which were based on more accurate and comprehensive vulnerability functions and databases of buildings and their human occupants. The probabilistic risk and decision tools developed in EXPLORIS provide a new paradigm in volcanology that unifies many disciplines engaged in mitigation and crisis management at Vesuvius and the three island volcanoes also studied (La Soufriere,Guadeloupe; Teide, Tenerife; and Sete Cidades,Azores).

  18. The reduction of vascular disease risk mutations contributes to longevity in the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    He, Yong-Han; Lu, Xiang; Bi, Ming-Xin; Yang, Li-Qin; Xu, Liang-You; Kong, Qing-Peng

    2014-01-01

    Aim Genetic factors play important roles in determining human lifespan. Although some “longevity genes” have been identified to be implicated in human longevity, many disease-associated variants were also observed in the long-lived individuals. The oldest old and their offspring usually have a lower prevalence of age-related diseases, which is likely attributed to a reduction or an absence of disease risk variants. Methods and results To test this hypothesis, 23 disease risk single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), identified by previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs), were selected and genotyped in 1074 samples consisting of 574 longevity subjects (over 90 years old) and 500 younger controls. Our results revealed that 5 SNPs (rs2144300, rs1864163, rs2200733, rs1967017, and rs7193343) displayed significantly lower allelic frequencies and odds ratios (ORs) in the longevity group than that in the control group. The frequencies of homozygous mutation genotypes and corresponding ORs of the rs1864163, rs2200733, rs127430, rs1967017, and rs12413409 were lower in the longevity subjects. Interestingly, most of the abovementioned SNPs convey susceptibility to cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is the leading cause of deaths in old adults but shows a much lower incidence in the longevity individuals and their offspring. Conclusion Taking into account the observation that the longevity subjects and their offspring have lower rate of cardiovascular mortality, it is then most plausible that the lack of disease risk variants, especially the CVD, is a genetic contributor to longevity in the Chinese population. PMID:25606459

  19. Risk contribution from low power, shutdown, and other operational modes beyond full power

    SciTech Connect

    Whitehead, D.W.; Brown, T.D.; Chu, T.L.

    1995-04-01

    During 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (a pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (a boiling water reactor), were selected for study by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories, respectively. The program objectives included assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power and comparing estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences, and other qualitative and quantitative results with full power accidents as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope included a Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for traditional internal events and a Level 1 PRA on fire, flooding, and seismically induced core damage sequences. A phased approach was used in Level 1. In Phase 1 the concept of plant operational states (POSs) was developed to provide a better representation of the plant as it transitions from power to nonpower operation. This included a coarse screening analysis of all POSs to identify vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) potential frequencies of core damage accidents, and to provide a foundation for a detailed Phase 2 analysis. In Phase 2, selected POSs from both Grand Gulf and Surry were chosen for detailed analysis. For Grand Gulf, POS 5 (approximately cold shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications) during a refueling outage was selected. For Surry, three POSs representing the time the plant spends in midloop operation were chosen for analysis. These included POS 6 and POS 10 of a refueling outage and POS 6 of a drained maintenance outage. Level 1 and Level 2/3 results from both the Surry and Grand Gulf analyses are presented.

  20. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8-12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value.

  1. Dairy cattle serum and milk factors contributing to the risk of colon and breast cancers.

    PubMed

    zur Hausen, Harald; de Villiers, Ethel-Michele

    2015-08-15

    The analysis of published epidemiological data on colon and breast cancer reveals a remarkable concordance for most regions of the world. A low incidence for both cancers has been recorded in Mongolia and Bolivia. Discrepant data, however, have been reported for India, Japan and Korea. In India, the incidence of breast cancer is significantly higher than for colon cancer, in Japan and Korea colon cancer exceeds by far the rate of breast cancer. Here, studies are summarized pointing to a species-specific risk for colon cancer after consumption of beef originating from dairy cattle. Uptake of dairy products of Bos taurus-derived milk cattle, particularly consumed at early age, is suggested to represent one of the main risk factors for the development of breast cancer. A recent demonstration of reduced breast cancer rates in individuals with lactose intolerance (Ji et al., Br J Cancer 2014; 112:149-52) seems to be in line with this interpretation. Species-specific risk factors for these cancers are compatible with the transmission of different infectious factors transferred via meat or dairy products. Countries with discordant rates of colon and breast cancer reveal a similar discordance between meat and milk product consumption of dairy cattle. The recent isolation of a larger number of novel presumably viral DNAs from serum, meat and dairy products of healthy dairy cows, at least part of them infectious for human cells, deserves further investigation. Systemic infections early in life, resulting in latency and prevention of subsequent infections with the same agent by neutralizing antibodies, would require reconsideration of ongoing prospective studies conducted in the adult population.

  2. The contribution of satellite SAR-derived displacement measurements in landslide risk management practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raspini, Federico; Bardi, Federica; Bianchini, Silvia; Ciampalini, Andrea; Del Ventisette, Chiara; Farina, Paolo; Ferrigno, Federica; Solari, Lorenzo; Casagli, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    Landslides are common phenomena that occur worldwide and are a main cause of loss of life and damage to property. The hazards associated with landslides are a challenging concern in many countries, including Italy. With 13% of the territory prone to landslides, Italy is one of the European countries with the highest landslide hazard, and on a worldwide scale, it is second only to Japan among the technologically advanced countries. Over the last 15 years, an increasing number of applications have aimed to demonstrate the applicability of images captured by space-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors in slope instability investigations. InSAR (SAR Interferometry) is currently one of the most exploited techniques for the assessment of ground displacements, and it is becoming a consolidated tool for Civil Protection institutions in addressing landslide risk. We present a subset of the results obtained in Italy within the framework of SAR-based programmes and applications intended to test the potential application of C- and X-band satellite interferometry during different Civil Protection activities (namely, prevention, prevision, emergency response and post-emergency phases) performed to manage landslide risk. In all phases, different benefits can be derived from the use of SAR-based measurements, which were demonstrated to be effective in the field of landslide analysis. Analysis of satellite-SAR data is demonstrated to play a major role in the investigation of landslide-related events at different stages, including detection, mapping, monitoring, characterization and prediction. Interferometric approaches are widely consolidated for analysis of slow-moving slope deformations in a variety of environments, and exploitation of the amplitude data in SAR images is a somewhat natural complement for rapid-moving landslides. In addition, we discuss the limitations that still exist and must be overcome in the coming years to manage the transition of satellite SAR

  3. Radiation exposure does not significantly contribute to the risk of recurrence of Chernobyl thyroid cancer.

    PubMed

    Rumyantsev, Pavel O; Saenko, Vladimir A; Ilyin, Alexey A; Stepanenko, Valery F; Rumyantseva, Ulyana V; Abrosimov, Aleksandr Yu; Lushnikov, Evgeny F; Rogounovitch, Tatiana I; Shibata, Yoshisada; Mitsutake, Norisato; Tsyb, Anatoly F; Yamashita, Shunichi

    2011-02-01

    Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in patients exposed to environmental radioiodine after the Chernobyl accident is thought to have a relatively aggressive clinical course. Long-term results of treatment are not well known, especially in comparison with sporadic PTC. The determination of risk factors for PTC recurrence in a controlled for baseline factors group of patients with radiation-related and sporadic PTC. Retrospective cohort study involving patients treated for PTC and followed-up in 1991-2008. Risk factors were assessed by stratified analysis using the proportional hazard model. Referral center-based. A total of 497 patients were enrolled. Patients exposed to radioiodine were 172 individuals with reconstructed individual radiation thyroid doses ranging 51-3170 mGy. Patients with sporadic PTC included 325 individuals matched to exposed patients for sex, age ± 5 yr and time to treatment ± 2 yr. Cancer recurrence. Nodal disease increased the recurrence rate (HR = 5.21; 95% CI = 1.63-16.7) while the presence of tumor capsule (HR = 0.17; 95% CI = 0.06-0.45) and, particularly, treatment according to the Revised American Thyroid Association Management Guidelines for Patients with Thyroid Nodules and Differentiated Thyroid Cancer significantly reduced it (HR = 0.16; 95% CI = 0.06-0.42). None of the tested variables interacted with radiation factor. PTC developing after internal exposure to radioiodine does not display specific risk factors for recurrence different from those in sporadic PTC. Common treatment approaches for patients with PTC should be recommended regardless of a history of radiation exposure.

  4. Familial, Social, and Individual Factors Contributing to Risk for Adolescent Substance Use

    PubMed Central

    Bachand, Annette; Peel, Jennifer; Brown, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Data from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reveal high numbers of adolescent substance use in the United States. Substance use among adolescents can lead to increased risk of transmission of sexually transmitted infections, vehicular fatalities, juvenile delinquency, and other problems associated with physical and mental health. Adolescents are particularly susceptible to involvement in substance use due to the underdeveloped state of the adolescent brain, which can lead to reduced decision-making ability and increased long-term effects of drugs and alcohol. Understanding the causes of adolescent substance use is vital for successful prevention and intervention programs. PMID:24826363

  5. Genetic and Environmental Risk for Chronic Pain and the Contribution of Risk Variants for Major Depressive Disorder: A Family-Based Mixed-Model Analysis

    PubMed Central

    McIntosh, Andrew M.; Zeng, Yanni; Davies, Gail; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Hayward, Caroline; Haley, Chris S.; Porteous, David J.; Deary, Ian J.; Smith, Daniel J.; Hinds, David A.; Jones, Amy V.; Scollen, Serena; Meng, Weihua; Hocking, Lynne J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Chronic pain is highly prevalent and a significant source of disability, yet its genetic and environmental risk factors are poorly understood. Its relationship with major depressive disorder (MDD) is of particular importance. We sought to test the contribution of genetic factors and shared and unique environment to risk of chronic pain and its correlation with MDD in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS). We then sought to replicate any significant findings in the United Kingdom Biobank study. Methods and Findings Using family-based mixed-model analyses, we examined the contribution of genetics and shared family environment to chronic pain by spouse, sibling, and household relationships. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS (n = 23,960), a family- and population-based study of individuals recruited from the Scottish population through their general practitioners. We then examined and partitioned the correlation between chronic pain and MDD and estimated the contribution of genetic factors and shared environment in GS:SFHS. Finally, we used data from two independent genome-wide association studies to test whether chronic pain has a polygenic architecture and examine whether genomic risk of psychiatric disorder predicted chronic pain and whether genomic risk of chronic pain predicted MDD. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS and repeated in UK Biobank, a study of 500,000 from the UK population, of whom 112,151 had genotyping and phenotypic data. Chronic pain is a moderately heritable trait (heritability = 38.4%, 95% CI 33.6% to 43.9%) that is significantly concordant in spouses (variance explained 18.7%, 95% CI 9.5% to 25.1%). Chronic pain is positively correlated with depression (ρ = 0.13, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.15, p = 2.72x10-68) and shows a tendency to cluster within families for genetic reasons (genetic correlation = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.62, p = 8.24x10-19). Polygenic risk profiles for pain, generated using independent GWAS

  6. Visual Analytics 101

    SciTech Connect

    Scholtz, Jean; Burtner, Edwin R.; Cook, Kristin A.

    2016-06-13

    This course will introduce the field of Visual Analytics to HCI researchers and practitioners highlighting the contributions they can make to this field. Topics will include a definition of visual analytics along with examples of current systems, types of tasks and end users, issues in defining user requirements, design of visualizations and interactions, guidelines and heuristics, the current state of user-centered evaluations, and metrics for evaluation. We encourage designers, HCI researchers, and HCI practitioners to attend to learn how their skills can contribute to advancing the state of the art of visual analytics

  7. Evaluation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Using Analytical Methods, Toxicology, and Risk Assessment Research: Seafood Safety after a Petroleum Spill as an Example

    PubMed Central

    Overton, Edward; Frickel, Scott; Howard, Jessi; Wilson, Mark; Simon, Bridget; Echsner, Stephen; Nguyen, Daniel; Gauthe, David; Blake, Diane; Miller, Charles; Elferink, Cornelis; Ansari, Shakeel; Fernando, Harshica; Trapido, Edward; Kane, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Background: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are abundant and widespread environmental chemicals. They are produced naturally and through man-made processes, and they are common in organic media, including petroleum. Several PAHs are toxic, and a subset exhibit carcinogenic activity. PAHs represent a range of chemical structures based on two or more benzene rings and, depending on their source, can exhibit a variety of side modifications resulting from oxygenation, nitrogenation, and alkylation. Objectives: Here we discuss the increasing ability of contemporary analytical methods to distinguish not only different chemical structures among PAHs but also their concentrations in environmental media. Using seafood contamination following the Deepwater Horizon accident as an example, we identify issues that are emerging in the PAH risk assessment process because of increasing analytical sensitivity for individual PAHs, and we describe the paucity of toxicological literature for many of these compounds. Discussion: PAHs, including the large variety of chemically modified or substituted PAHs, are naturally occurring and may constitute health risks if human populations are exposed to hazardous levels. However, toxicity evaluations have not kept pace with modern analytic methods and their increased ability to detect substituted PAHs. Therefore, although it is possible to measure these compounds in seafood and other media, we do not have sufficient information on the potential toxicity of these compounds to incorporate them into human health risk assessments and characterizations. Conclusions: Future research efforts should strategically attempt to fill this toxicological knowledge gap so human health risk assessments of PAHs in environmental media or food can be better determined. This is especially important in the aftermath of petroleum spills. Citation: Wickliffe J, Overton E, Frickel S, Howard J, Wilson M, Simon B, Echsner S, Nguyen D, Gauthe D, Blake D, Miller C

  8. Metabolic syndrome contributes to an increased recurrence risk of non-metastatic colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    You, Jie; Liu, Wen-Yue; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Wang, Ou-Chen; Ma, Rui-Min; Huang, Gui-Qian; Shi, Ke-Qing; Guo, Gui-Long; Braddock, Martin; Zheng, Ming-Hua

    2015-08-14

    Epidemiological data suggests a close link between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and non-metastatic colorectal cancer (NMCRC). However, the relationship between MetS and the outcome of NMCRC is less well understood. We aim to evaluate the impact of MetS on the prognosis in NMCRC patients. We performed a large cohort study of 1069 NMCRC patients. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative survival rate. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the prognosis associated with MetS adjusting for clinicopathologic variables. MetS was identified in 20.7% of NMCRC patients. Patients with MetS were more likely to be older, higher levels of blood glucose, triglycerides, high density lipoprotein, and uric acid than patients without MS (P < 0.05 for all). During a mean period of 59.6 months follow-up, patients with MetS had a statistically significantly lower rate of disease-free survival (DFS) than the patients without MetS (P = 0.014), especially local recurrence (P = 0.040). However, there was no difference in overall survival (P = 0.116). Multivariate analysis showed that the presence of MetS was an independent risk factor for DFS (HR = 0.733, 95%CI 0.545-0.987, P = 0.041), but not for OS (P = 0.118). MetS is associated with an increased recurrence risk of NMCRC.

  9. Analytical description of the slope of the APD-restitution curve to assess the interacting contribution of conduction and repolarization dynamics.

    PubMed

    Orini, Michele; Taggart, Peter; Hayward, Martin; Lambiase, Pier D

    2015-08-01

    The restitution of the action potential duration (APDR) is a mechanism whereby cardiac excitation and relaxation adapt to changes in heart rate. Several studies, mainly carried out in-vitro and in-silico, have demonstrated that a steep APDR curve is associated with increased vulnerability to fatal arrhythmias. However, the mechanisms that link the steepness of the APDR curve to arrhythmogenesis remain undetermined. Although APDR is known to interact with conduction dynamics, few studies have focused on these interactions. In this paper, an analytical expression of the slope of the APDR is derived. This expression explicitly describes the dependency of the slope of the APDR curve on the activation time and/or conduction velocity changes. The study of this expression shows that conduction dynamics are among the main determinants of the slope of the APDR curve. A small absolute increment in the steepness of the activation time restitution slope can cause the steepness of the APDR slope to dramatically increase. Theoretically, the APDR slope quickly diverges to infinity when the increase in activation time matches the decrease in the pacing interval. High density epicardial mapping performed in a patient undergoing open heart surgery, shows excellent agreement between measures of the slope of the APDR curve and its analytical prediction (linear correlation > 0.95). The in-vivo recordings suggest that activation time restitution is the main determinant of the slope of the APDR curve.

  10. Current research, regulation, risk, analytical methods and monitoring results for nicarbazin in chicken meat: A perspective review.

    PubMed

    Bacila, Danniele Miranda; Feddern, Vivian; Mafra, Luciana Igarashi; Scheuermann, Gerson Neudí; Molognoni, Luciano; Daguer, Heitor

    2017-09-01

    This review presents up-to-date information about current research on nicarbazin, one of the most used anticoccidials in poultry production. The focus is to elucidate regulation concerning nicarbazin, limits for its residues in food, how maximum residue limits in different countries are calculated regarding edible chicken tissues and the possible implications in human health. Analytical methods to extract and quantify this residue, expressed as dinitrocarbanilide (DNC) are presented and discussed, including qualitative screening and quantitative/confirmatory analytical methods. Monitoring results and occurrence of DNC residues in chicken meat are discussed. Additionally, the causes of eventual chicken meat contamination and possible solutions to reduce or eliminate DNC residue in tissues are also presented. The paper concludes with perspectives, the current state of DNC residue analysis and suggestions for future research, especially considering the gap in the study of residue recycling effect due to continuous chicken litter use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Contribution of Occupation to High Doses of Light-Intensity Activity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors among Mexican American Adults

    PubMed Central

    Gay, Jennifer L.; Kohl, Harold W.; Salinas, Jennifer J.; McCormick, Joseph B.; Fisher-Hoch, Susan P.

    2015-01-01

    Background The association between light-intensity activity and cardiovascular disease risk is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of light-intensity activity with census-based occupational activity classifications and cardiovascular risk factors among Mexican American adults. Methods 118 Mexican American adults (68.6% female) provided cross-sectional accelerometer and biological data. Self-reported occupations were classified by activity level (sedentary, low, moderate). Participants were classified as At-Risk for BMI, glucose, triglycerides, HDL, blood pressure, waist circumference, and percent body fat. Results Participants engaged in > 5 hours of light-intensity activity on average, and those in sedentary occupations engaged in fewer light-intensity activity minutes than low-active or moderately active workers (P < .001). Self-reported occupation explained 14% of the variation in light-intensity activity (P < .001). Participants in moderately active occupations were at increased risk for high %body fat than other workers (P = .01), but no other associations between occupation and cardiovascular risk were detected. Conclusion Early work in physical activity underscored the importance of occupational activity. This study presents evidence of a dose-response association for light-intensity activity by occupational category such that workers in sedentary occupations had less light-intensity activity than employees in more active occupations. Future research on how light-intensity activity derived from occupation may reduce the risk of chronic disease will contribute to improved interventions as light-intensity activity participation may be more feasible than meeting current physical activity guidelines. PMID:24368819

  12. Contribution of occupation to high doses of light-intensity activity and cardiovascular risk factors among Mexican American adults.

    PubMed

    Gay, Jennifer L; Kohl, Harold W; Salinas, Jennifer J; McCormick, Joseph B; Fisher-Hoch, Susan P

    2014-09-01

    The association between light-intensity activity and cardiovascular disease risk is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of light-intensity activity with census-based occupational activity classifications and cardiovascular risk factors among Mexican American adults. 118 Mexican American adults (68.6% female) provided cross-sectional accelerometer and biological data. Self-reported occupations were classified by activity level (sedentary, low, moderate). Participants were classified as At-Risk for BMI, glucose, triglycerides, HDL, blood pressure, waist circumference, and percent body fat. Participants engaged in > 5 hours of light-intensity activity on average, and those in sedentary occupations engaged in fewer light-intensity activity minutes than low-active or moderately active workers (P < .001). Self-reported occupation explained 14% of the variation in light-intensity activity (P < .001). Participants in moderately active occupations were at increased risk for high %body fat than other workers (P = .01), but no other associations between occupation and cardiovascular risk were detected. Early work in physical activity underscored the importance of occupational activity. This study presents evidence of a dose-response association for light-intensity activity by occupational category such that workers in sedentary occupations had less light-intensity activity than employees in more active occupations. Future research on how light-intensity activity derived from occupation may reduce the risk of chronic disease will contribute to improved interventions as light-intensity activity participation may be more feasible than meeting current physical activity guidelines.

  13. Common colorectal cancer risk alleles contribute to the multiple colorectal adenoma phenotype, but do not influence colonic polyposis in FAP.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Timothy H T; Gorman, Maggie; Martin, Lynn; Barclay, Ella; Casey, Graham; Saunders, Brian; Thomas, Huw; Clark, Sue; Tomlinson, Ian

    2015-02-01

    The presence of multiple (5-100) colorectal adenomas suggests an inherited predisposition, but the genetic aetiology of this phenotype is undetermined if patients test negative for Mendelian polyposis syndromes such as familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) and MUTYH-associated polyposis (MAP). We investigated whether 18 common colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) could help to explain some cases with multiple adenomas who phenocopied FAP or MAP, but had no pathogenic APC or MUTYH variant. No multiple adenoma case had an outlying number of CRC SNP risk alleles, but multiple adenoma patients did have a significantly higher number of risk alleles than population controls (P=5.7 × 10(-7)). The association was stronger in those with ≥10 adenomas. The CRC SNPs accounted for 4.3% of the variation in multiple adenoma risk, with three SNPs (rs6983267, rs10795668, rs3802842) explaining 3.0% of the variation. In FAP patients, the CRC risk score did not differ significantly from the controls, as we expected given the overwhelming effect of pathogenic germline APC variants on the phenotype of these cases. More unexpectedly, we found no evidence that the CRC SNPs act as modifier genes for the number of colorectal adenomas in FAP patients. In conclusion, common colorectal tumour risk alleles contribute to the development of multiple adenomas in patients without pathogenic germline APC or MUTYH variants. This phenotype may have 'polygenic' or monogenic origins. The risk of CRC in relatives of multiple adenoma cases is probably much lower for cases with polygenic disease, and this should be taken into account when counselling such patients.

  14. Ranking the contributions of commercial fish and shellfish varieties to mercury exposure in the United States: implications for risk communication.

    PubMed

    Groth, Edward

    2010-04-01

    Fish and shellfish have important nutritional benefits, and US per capita seafood consumption has increased substantially since 2002. Recent research has reinforced concerns about adverse effects of methylmercury exposure, suggesting that methylmercury doses associated with typical US rates of fish consumption may pose measurable risks, with no threshold. These converging trends create a need to improve risk communication about fish consumption and mercury. The analysis performed here identifies the relative importance of different fish and shellfish as sources of mercury in the US seafood supply and proposes improved consumer advice, so that the public can benefit from fish consumption while minimizing mercury exposure. I have quantified contributions to total mercury in the US seafood supply by 51 different varieties of fish and shellfish, then ranked and sorted the 51 varieties in terms of relative impact. Except for swordfish, most fish with the highest mercury levels are relatively minor contributors to total inputs. Tuna (canned light, canned albacore and fresh/frozen varieties) accounts for 37.4 percent of total mercury inputs, while two-thirds of the seafood supply and nine of the 11 most heavily consumed fish and shellfish are low or very low in mercury. Substantial improvement in risk communication about mercury in fish and seafood is needed; in particular, several population subsets need better guidance to base their seafood choices more explicitly on mercury content. I have sorted the 51 seafood varieties into six categories based on mercury levels, as a framework for improving risk communication in this regard.

  15. Serum Resistin Levels May Contribute to an Increased Risk of Acute Cerebral Infarction.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xiao-Liu; Xu, Shi-Jun; Zhang, Li; Zhang, Xiu-Qing; Liu, Ting; Gao, Qiu-Yan; Qian, Qing-Qiang; Sun, Bao-Liang; Yang, Ming-Feng

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the association between serum resistin levels and acute cerebral infarction (ACI). PubMed, SpringerLink, Wiley, EBSCO, Ovid, Web of Science, Wanfang, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and VIP databases (last updated search in October 2014) were exhaustively searched, and data from the eligible studies were extracted and analyzed to assess the association between serum resistin levels and ACI. STATA software (version 12.0, Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA) was utilized for data analysis. Ten studies including 1829 ACI patients and 1557 healthy controls were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Our major result revealed that ACI patients exhibited higher serum resistin levels compared with healthy controls. Asubgroup analysis based on ethnicity showed a significant association between serum resistin levels and ACI in Asians, but surprisingly not in Caucasians. The results of our meta-analysis suggest that serum resistin levels are associated with an increased risk of ACI.

  16. Environmental estrogens in a drinking water reservoir area in Shanghai: occurrence, colloidal contribution and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Nie, Minghua; Yang, Yi; Liu, Min; Yan, Caixia; Shi, Hao; Dong, Wenbo; Zhou, John L

    2014-07-15

    The occurrence and multi-phase distribution of six environmental estrogen compounds were investigated in a drinking water reservoir area by analyzing estrogens in suspended particulate matter (SPM), filtrate (conventional dissolved phase, <1 μm), permeate (truly soluble phase, <1 kDa) and retentate (colloidal phase, 1 kDa to 1 μm). The estrogen concentrations at different sites occurred in the following order: animal feed operation (AFO) wastewater-affected streams>tributaries>main stream channel. Correlation analysis showed that organic carbon (OC) contents had significantly positive correlations with environmental estrogens in filtrate, SPM and colloidal phases, respectively, indicating the important role played by OC. Aquatic colloids, often neglected, showed a much higher sorption capability of environmental estrogens compared to SPM. Similar Kcoc values in three types of sampling sites showed that colloids could be transported from AFO wastewater to tributaries and further into the main river channel. Mass balance calculations showed that 14.5-68.4% of OP, 4.5-32.1% of BPA, 2.0-58.4% of E1, 8.36-72.0% of E2, 0-20.6% of EE2, 3.4-62.7% of E3 and 8.3-36.1% of total estrogens were associated with colloidal fractions, suggesting that the colloids could act as a significant sink for environmental estrogens. Risk assessment demonstrated that the occurrence of environmental estrogens might pose a risk to aquatic organisms in the study area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17.  Risk factors contributing to early infection following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in perioperative period.

    PubMed

    Deng, Peng; Zhou, Biao; Li, Xiao

    2016-01-01

     Introducción and aim. To investigate and identify the risk factors associated with early infection following a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS)procedure in perioperative period. The interventional radiology database at the West China Hospital in Sichuan, China was reviewed to identify all patients that underwent a TIPS procedure between January 30, 2013 and August 30, 2015. Four hundred and sixty-six TIPS patients with liver cirrhosis were enrolled in this study. Liver function was assessed using the Child-Pugh classification system and bacteremia was defined as patients that had a positive blood culture. Statistical analysis was performed using χ2 tests (include Fisher's exact tests χ2) and logistic regression analyses. A P< 0.05 was set as the threshold for statistical significance. One hundred and forty-eight of the 466 (31.7%) patients developed a fever. Eighty-three of the 148 fever patients subsequently had blood drawn for cultures and 9/83 (10.8%) patients developed bacteremia as defined by a blood culture analysis. Cholangiolithiasis (P = 0.006), Child-Pugh class A designation (P = 0.001), Child-Pugh class C designation (P = 0.005) and hepatitis C virus infection (P = 0.011) were significantly correlated with fever in these patients. No statistically significant correlations were found between the other factors (age, gender, clinical manifestation, diabetes mellitus, cholangiolithiasis, etc.) and bacteremia, with the exception of periprocedure cholangiolithiasis, which was significantly correlated with blood culture-defined bacteremia (P < 0.05). Cholangiolithiasis is a risk factor for infection after a TIPS procedure in the periprocedure period.

  18. Contribution of vascular risk factors to the progression in Alzheimer disease.

    PubMed

    Helzner, Elizabeth P; Luchsinger, José A; Scarmeas, Nikolaos; Cosentino, Stephanie; Brickman, Adam M; Glymour, M Maria; Stern, Yaakov

    2009-03-01

    Vascular factors including medical history (heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and hypertension), smoking, and prediagnosis blood lipid measurements (cholesterol: total, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein [LDL-C], and triglyceride concentrations) may be predictors for progression of Alzheimer disease (AD). To determine whether prediagnosis vascular risk factors are associated with progression of AD. Inception cohort followed up longitudinally for a mean of 3.5 (up to 10.2) years. Washington Heights/Inwood Columbia Aging Project, New York, New York. Patients One hundred fifty-six patients with incident AD (mean age at diagnosis, 83 years). Main Outcome Measure Change in a composite score of cognitive ability from diagnosis onward. In generalized estimating equation models (adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and years of education), higher cholesterol (total cholesterol and LDL-C) concentrations and history of diabetes were associated with faster cognitive decline. Each 10-U increase in cholesterol and LDL-C was associated with a 0.10-SD decrease in cognitive score per year of follow-up (P < .001 for total cholesterol; P = .001 for LDL-C). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations were not associated with rate of decline. A history of diabetes was associated with an additional 0.05-SD decrease in cognitive score per year (P = .05). History of heart disease and stroke were associated with cognitive decline only in carriers of the apolipoprotein E epsilon4 (APOE-epsilon4) gene. In a final generalized estimating equation model that included high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and LDL-C concentrations and history of diabetes, only higher LDL-C was independently associated with faster cognitive decline. Higher prediagnosis total cholesterol and LDL-C concentrations and history of diabetes were associated with faster cognitive decline in patients with incident AD, which provides further evidence for the role of vascular risk factors

  19. Genetic Variation in VEGF Does Not Contribute Significantly to the Risk of Congenital Cardiovascular Malformation

    PubMed Central

    Griffin, Helen R.; Hall, Darroch H.; Topf, Ana; Eden, James; Stuart, A. Graham; Parsons, Jonathan; Peart, Ian; Deanfield, John E.; O'Sullivan, John; Babu-Narayan, Sonya V.; Gatzoulis, Michael A.; Bu'Lock, Frances A.; Bhattacharya, Shoumo; Bentham, Jamie; Farrall, Martin; Granados Riveron, Javier; Brook, J. David; Burn, John; Cordell, Heather J.; Goodship, Judith A.; Keavney, Bernard

    2009-01-01

    Several previous studies have investigated the role of common promoter variants in the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) gene in causing congenital cardiovascular malformation (CVM). However, results have been discrepant between studies and no study to date has comprehensively characterised variation throughout the gene. We genotyped 771 CVM cases, of whom 595 had the outflow tract malformation Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF), and carried out TDT and case-control analyses using haplotype-tagging SNPs in VEGF. We carried out a meta-analysis of previous case-control or family-based studies that had typed VEGF promoter SNPs, which included an additional 570 CVM cases. To identify rare variants potentially causative of CVM, we carried out mutation screening in all VEGF exons and splice sites in 93 TOF cases. There was no significant effect of any VEGF haplotype-tagging SNP on the risk of CVM in our analyses of 771 probands. When the results of this and all previous studies were combined, there was no significant effect of the VEGF promoter SNPs rs699947 (OR 1.05 [95% CI 0.95–1.17]); rs1570360 (OR 1.17 [95% CI 0.99–1.26]); and rs2010963 (OR 1.04 [95% CI 0.93–1.16]) on the risk of CVM in 1341 cases. Mutation screening of 93 TOF cases revealed no VEGF coding sequence variants and no changes at splice consensus sequences. Genetic variation in VEGF appears to play a small role, if any, in outflow tract CVM susceptibility. PMID:19308252

  20. Genetic variation in VEGF does not contribute significantly to the risk of congenital cardiovascular malformation.

    PubMed

    Griffin, Helen R; Hall, Darroch H; Topf, Ana; Eden, James; Stuart, A Graham; Parsons, Jonathan; Peart, Ian; Deanfield, John E; O'Sullivan, John; Babu-Narayan, Sonya V; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Bu'lock, Frances A; Bhattacharya, Shoumo; Bentham, Jamie; Farrall, Martin; Granados Riveron, Javier; Brook, J David; Burn, John; Cordell, Heather J; Goodship, Judith A; Keavney, Bernard

    2009-01-01

    Several previous studies have investigated the role of common promoter variants in the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) gene in causing congenital cardiovascular malformation (CVM). However, results have been discrepant between studies and no study to date has comprehensively characterised variation throughout the gene. We genotyped 771 CVM cases, of whom 595 had the outflow tract malformation Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF), and carried out TDT and case-control analyses using haplotype-tagging SNPs in VEGF. We carried out a meta-analysis of previous case-control or family-based studies that had typed VEGF promoter SNPs, which included an additional 570 CVM cases. To identify rare variants potentially causative of CVM, we carried out mutation screening in all VEGF exons and splice sites in 93 TOF cases. There was no significant effect of any VEGF haplotype-tagging SNP on the risk of CVM in our analyses of 771 probands. When the results of this and all previous studies were combined, there was no significant effect of the VEGF promoter SNPs rs699947 (OR 1.05 [95% CI 0.95-1.17]); rs1570360 (OR 1.17 [95% CI 0.99-1.26]); and rs2010963 (OR 1.04 [95% CI 0.93-1.16]) on the risk of CVM in 1341 cases. Mutation screening of 93 TOF cases revealed no VEGF coding sequence variants and no changes at splice consensus sequences. Genetic variation in VEGF appears to play a small role, if any, in outflow tract CVM susceptibility.

  1. Environmental risk factors contributing to traffic accidents in children: a case-control study.

    PubMed

    Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Moradi, Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza

    2016-06-09

    The aim of this study is to identify environmental risk factors related to road accidents in children of Tehran. This case-control study was performed in 2013. The cases were injured pedestrians aged 5-15 who were admitted to major hospitals supervised by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The sample size for the cases was 273 and for the control group was 546. For the completeness of the clusters, 7 extra persons in case (total = 280) and 14 persons (total = 560) in control group were included. The interference of confounding variables assessed through forward conditional logistic regression. Result shows occurrence of traffic accidents was significantly associate with the width of the alleys or (<5 m: OR = 8.4, 95% CI: 3.3-21.5; 5-8 m: OR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.8-12.2), distance from home to school((<100 m: OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0-2.8), existence of parking lot (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0-2.3), traffic congestion (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.4), traffic speed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2) and existence of pedestrian bridges(OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.6-6.8). In the light of the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of child traffic accidents, alleviating structural risk factors in addition to education and enforcement need more systematic efforts and planning by policymakers and urban planners to attain pedestrian safety goals.

  2. Factors Contributing to the Risk of HIV Infection in Rural School-Going Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Awotidebe, Adedapo; Phillips, Julie; Lens, Willy

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the factors that increase the risk of HIV infection in rural school-going adolescents and young adults. This was a cross-sectional study of 430 secondary school students (47.4% boys and 52.6% girls) from two rural schools in South Africa. Data were collected with a self-administered questionnaire on demographic information, sources of HIV/AIDS information, HIV knowledge, sexual behaviors, communication and negotiation skills, self-efficacy to refuse sex, peer influence and time perspective. Out of 113 (27.2%) participants who reported being sexually active, about 48% reported having had sex before the age of 15 and 42.2% reported penetrative sex with more than one partner in their lifetime. Only 44.8% of them reported consistent and regular use of condoms for every sexual encounter. Peer influence (OR = 3.01 (95% CI = 1.97–4.60)), gender difference (OR = 6.60 (95% CI = 1.62–26.84)) and lack of HIV information (OR = 1.22 (95% CI = 1.03–1.44)) influenced the sexual risk behaviors of the adolescents. Greater numbers of school-going adolescents in rural areas are sexually active. Peer influence, especially in boys, is a factor that increases the preponderance of risky sexual behaviors in adolescents. Positively, adolescents with high knowledge of HIV infection are more likely to use condoms for every sexual encounter. There is a need to strengthen comprehensive sexual health education and youth-friendly HIV prevention strategies to promote abstinence and safe sexual behaviors, especially among boys. PMID:25405598

  3. How Do Vocabulary Interventions Affect Young At-Risk Children's Word Learning: A Meta-Analytic Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marulis, Loren M.; Neuman, Susan B.

    2011-01-01

    This meta-analysis is designed to build on the existing knowledge base by examining vocabulary interventions specifically for factors associated with child outcomes for at-risk children. Specifically, the authors addressed the following questions: (1) To what extent are vocabulary interventions an effective method for at-risk children prior to…

  4. The relative contribution of climatic, edaphic, and biotic drivers to risk of tree mortality from drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    March, R. G.; Moore, G. W.; Edgar, C. B.; Lawing, A. M.; Washington-Allen, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    In recorded history, the 2011 Texas Drought was comparable in severity only to a drought that occurred 300 years ago. By mid-September, 88% of the state experienced 'exceptional' conditions, with the rest experiencing 'extreme' or 'severe' drought. By recent estimates, the 2011 Texas Drought killed 6.2% of all the state's trees, at a rate nearly 9 times greater than average. The vast spatial scale and relatively uniform intensity of this drought has provided an opportunity to examine the comparative interactions among forest types, terrain, and edaphic factors across major climate gradients which in 2011 were subjected to extreme drought conditions that ultimately caused massive tree mortality. We used maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) to rank environmental landscape factors with the potential to drive drought-related tree mortality and test the assumption that the relative importance of these factors are scale-dependent. Occurrence data of dead trees were collected during the summer of 2012 from 599 field plots distributed across Texas with 30% used for model evaluation. Bioclimatic variables, ecoregions, soils characteristics, and topographic variables were modeled with drought-killed tree occurrence. Their relative contribution to the model was seen as their relative importance in driving mortality. To test determinants at a more local scale, we examined Landsat 7 scenes in East and West Texas with moderate-resolution data for the same variables above with the exception of climate. All models were significantly better than random in binomial tests of omission and receiver operating characteristic analyses. The modeled spatial distribution of probability of occurrence showed high probability of mortality in the east-central oak woodlands and the mixed pine-hardwood forest region in northeast Texas. Both regional and local models were dominated by biotic factors (ecoregion and forest type, respectively). Forest density and precipitation of driest month also

  5. Risk perception of tsunami in the community of Arauco, Chile - a contribution of risk perception to disaster risk management at local level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubisch, M. Sc. Susanne; Edilia Jaque Castillo, Dra.; Braun, JProf. Andreas Ch., ,, Dr.

    2017-04-01

    The research was carried out in the city center of the coastal community of Arauco, Central Chile. The community of Arauco was one of the most affected communities of the tsunami in Chile, the 27th of February 2010. For the data evaluation, the affected inhabitants of the community have been surveyed via standardized questionnaires. Furthermore experts of different fields, amongst others, Disaster Risk Management (DRM), risk education, urban and regional planning, as well as geology have been consulted in form of expert interviews. The results revealed a high risk perception part of the affected community and a weakness of DRM especially at local level, which opens a gap between the evaluation and treatment of risk by experts and risk perception of the affected community. The risk perception of the affected community, here, is predominantly determined by ecological vulnerability, expressed in direct and indirect experience of a tsunami and by institutional vulnerability, expressed among others by a weakness of DRM at local level and a mistrust in responsible institutions for DRM. Due to the institutional vulnerability and the mistrust in responsible institutions we recommend a Community Based Approach (CBA) to strengthen DRM at local level and to take advantage of the high risk perception and knowledge of the affected community. Involving the community in DRM, we assume to close the gap between risk evaluation of experts and risk perception of the inhabitants and to come up with the unique necessities and conditions at local level. Especially in centralized countries, DRM is less effective, because at the one hand, decisions are made distant from the affected communities, so that measures often do not come up with the unique conditions and necessities at local level, and on the other hand measures often do not find acceptance by the affected community. Furthermore centralized DRM is often not effective and quick in response in case of emergency. Another obstacle

  6. Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy.

    PubMed

    Martínez-López, Beatriz; Perez, Andres M; Feliziani, Francesco; Rolesu, Sandro; Mur, Lina; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José M

    2015-01-01

    This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions.

  7. Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy

    PubMed Central

    Martínez-López, Beatriz; Perez, Andres M.; Feliziani, Francesco; Rolesu, Sandro; Mur, Lina; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José M.

    2015-01-01

    This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions. PMID:25926829

  8. The contribution of sting-jet windstorms to extreme wind risk in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, Neil C.; Gray, Suzanne L.; Clark, Peter A.

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms are a major winter weather risk for many countries in Europe. These storms are predominantly associated with explosively-developing extratropical cyclones that track across the region. A substantial body of literature exists on the synoptic-scale dynamics, predictability and climatology of such storms. More recently, interest in the mesoscale variability of the most damaging winds has led to a focus on the role of sting jets in enhancing windstorm severity. We present a present-era climatology of North Atlantic cyclones that had potential to produce sting jets. Considering only explosively-developing cyclones, those with sting-jet potential are more likely to have higher relative vorticity and associated low-level wind maxima. Furthermore, the strongest winds for sting-jet cyclones are more often in the cool sector, behind the cold front, when compared with other explosively-developing cyclones which commonly have strong warm-sector winds too. The tracks of sting-jet cyclones, and explosively-developing cyclones in general, show little offset from the climatological storm track. While rare over Europe, sting-jet cyclones are relatively frequent within the main storm track with up to one third of extratropical cyclones exhibiting sting-jet potential. Thus, the rarity and, until recently, lack of description of sting-jet windstorms is more due to the climatological storm track location away from highly-populated land masses, than due to an actual rarity of such storms in nature.

  9. Genetic contributions to the risk assessment of microcystin in the environment

    SciTech Connect

    Dittmann, Elke; Boerner, Thomas

    2005-03-15

    Of the known toxins produced by cyanobacteria, microcystins and nodularins are the most significant threat to human and animal health. Knock-out studies have confirmed that microcystins are produced nonribosomally by a multienzyme complex consisting of peptide synthetases, polyketide synthases, and tailoring enzymes. Gene clusters for microcystin biosynthesis have been identified and sequenced in the distantly related cyanobacterial genera Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Anabaena. Homologous genes have been detected in a nodularin-producing Nodularia strain. Subsequently, microcystin biosynthesis (mcy) genes have been used to establish molecular techniques for the detection of toxigenic cyanobacteria in laboratory and field studies. mcy genes of unknown origin can be assigned to the producing species. Techniques are currently being developed for the quantification of mcy genes in field populations. These initial genetic investigations pave the way for a molecular monitoring of microcystin- and nodularin-producing cyanobacteria and for studying the dynamics of toxic cyanobacteria in lakes. Furthermore, microcystin-deficient mutants have significantly increased our knowledge about the impact of the toxins on Microcystis-Daphnia interactions. The experience gained on microcystin biosynthesis genes will be valuable for a risk assessment of microcystin in the environment and for future water management and lake-restoration strategies.

  10. Contribution of the Nurses' Health Studies to Uncovering Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes: Diet, Lifestyle, Biomarkers, and Genetics.

    PubMed

    Ley, Sylvia H; Ardisson Korat, Andres V; Sun, Qi; Tobias, Deirdre K; Zhang, Cuilin; Qi, Lu; Willett, Walter C; Manson, JoAnn E; Hu, Frank B

    2016-09-01

    To review the contribution of the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the NHS II to addressing hypotheses regarding risk factors for type 2 diabetes. We carried out a narrative review of 1976 to 2016 NHS and NHS II publications. The NHS and NHS II have uncovered important roles in type 2 diabetes for individual nutrients, foods, dietary patterns, and physical activity independent of excess body weight. Up to 90% of type 2 diabetes cases are potentially preventable if individuals follow a healthy diet and lifestyle. The NHS investigations have also identified novel biomarkers for diabetes, including adipokines, inflammatory cytokines, nutrition metabolites, and environmental pollutants, offering new insights into the pathophysiology of the disease. Global collaborative efforts have uncovered many common genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes and improved our understanding of gene-environment interactions. Continued efforts to identify epigenetic, metagenomic, and metabolomic risk factors for type 2 diabetes have the potential to reveal new pathways and improve prediction and prevention. Over the past several decades, the NHS and NHS II have made major contributions to public health recommendations and strategies designed to reduce the global burden of diabetes.

  11. Contribution of the Nurses’ Health Studies to Uncovering Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes: Diet, Lifestyle, Biomarkers, and Genetics

    PubMed Central

    Ley, Sylvia H.; Ardisson Korat, Andres V.; Sun, Qi; Tobias, Deirdre K.; Zhang, Cuilin; Qi, Lu; Willett, Walter C.; Manson, JoAnn E.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To review the contribution of the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and the NHS II to addressing hypotheses regarding risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Methods. We carried out a narrative review of 1976 to 2016 NHS and NHS II publications. Results. The NHS and NHS II have uncovered important roles in type 2 diabetes for individual nutrients, foods, dietary patterns, and physical activity independent of excess body weight. Up to 90% of type 2 diabetes cases are potentially preventable if individuals follow a healthy diet and lifestyle. The NHS investigations have also identified novel biomarkers for diabetes, including adipokines, inflammatory cytokines, nutrition metabolites, and environmental pollutants, offering new insights into the pathophysiology of the disease. Global collaborative efforts have uncovered many common genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes and improved our understanding of gene–environment interactions. Continued efforts to identify epigenetic, metagenomic, and metabolomic risk factors for type 2 diabetes have the potential to reveal new pathways and improve prediction and prevention. Conclusions. Over the past several decades, the NHS and NHS II have made major contributions to public health recommendations and strategies designed to reduce the global burden of diabetes. PMID:27459454

  12. A search for cyclophilin-A gene (PPIA) variation and its contribution to the risk of atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Palacín, M; Rodríguez, I; García-Castro, M; Ortega, F; Reguero, J R; López-Larrea, C; Morís, C; Alvarez, V; Coto, E

    2008-04-01

    Cyclophilin A is secreted by vascular smooth muscle cells in response to inflammatory stimuli, and could thus contribute to atherosclerosis. We hypothesized that the genetic variation at the cyclophilin A gene (PPIA) could affect the risk for developing atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction. This study included 250 myocardial infarction patients (all male and < 60 years; 95% are smokers). All these cases had at least one atherosclerotic diseased coronary vessel. DNA was obtained from patients and from 250 healthy controls. The variation at the PPIA gene was determined in the patients through single-strand conformation analysis and direct sequencing of seven polymerase chain reaction fragments. Allele and genotype frequencies were compared between patients and controls. The effect of a promoter polymorphism (-11 G/C) on gene expression was in vitro analysed with luciferase-reporter assays. We found two common polymorphisms in the PPIA promoter (-11 G/C) and the 5' non-translated (+36 G/A) regions. Cells transfected with luciferase-plasmids containing the -11 G had significantly higher luciferase activity. Genotype frequencies for these polymorphisms did not differ between patients and controls. In conclusion, we reported a functional variant in the PPIA promoter. However, the PPIA variation did not significantly contribute to the risk of suffering from myocardial infarction among patients with atherosclerotic diseased vessels.

  13. A meta-analytic assessment of the risk of chronic kidney disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

    PubMed

    Park, H; Adeyemi, A; Henry, L; Stepanova, M; Younossi, Z

    2015-11-01

    Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results regarding hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We systematically reviewed the literature to determine the risk of developing CKD in HCV-infected individuals compared to uninfected individuals. MEDLINE and PUBMED were searched to identify observational studies that had reported an association between HCV and CKD or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) through January 2015. Quantitative estimates [hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR)] and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were extracted from each study. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Fourteen studies evaluating the risk of developing CKD/ESRD in HCV-infected individuals (n = 336,227) compared to uninfected controls (n = 2,665,631) were identified- nine cohort studies and five cross-sectional studies. The summary estimate indicated that individuals with HCV had a 23% greater risk of presenting with CKD compared to uninfected individuals (risk ratio = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.12-1.34). Results were similar by study type, for cohorts (HR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.12-1.40) and cross-sectional studies (OR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.09-1.32). Country-stratified analysis demonstrated a significantly increased risk between HCV and CKD in the Taiwanese subgroup (risk ratio = 1.28; 95% CI: 1.12-1.34) and the US subgroup (risk ratio = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.01-1.32). Egger regression revealed no evidence of publication bias. HCV infection is associated with a greater risk of developing and progression of CKD compared to uninfected controls. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. The effects of risk-glorifying media exposure on risk-positive cognitions, emotions, and behaviors: a meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Kastenmüller, Andreas; Vogrincic, Claudia; Sauer, Anne

    2011-05-01

    In recent years, there has been a surge in the quantity of media content that glorifies risk-taking behavior, such as risky driving, extreme sports, or binge drinking. The authors conducted a meta-analysis involving more than 80,000 participants and 105 independent effect sizes to examine whether exposure to such media depictions increased their recipients' risk-taking inclinations. A positive connection was found for overall, combined risk taking (g=.41); as well as its underlying dimensions: risk-taking behaviors (g=.41), risk-positive cognitions and attitudes (g=.35), and risk-positive emotions (g=.56). This effect was observed across varying research methods (experimental, correlational, longitudinal); types of media (video games, movies, advertising, TV, music); and differing risk-related outcome measures (e.g., smoking, drinking, risky driving, sexual behavior). Multiple moderator analyses revealed 2 theoretically new boundary conditions for sociocognitive models. First, the effect was stronger for active (i.e., video games) than for passive (e.g., film, music) exposure to risk-glorifying media content. Second, the effect was stronger when there was a high degree of contextual fit between the media content and type of risk-taking measure. The theoretical, practical, and societal implications of the present research synthesis are discussed.

  15. Contribution of binge eating behaviour to cardiometabolic risk factors in subjects starting a weight loss or maintenance programme.

    PubMed

    Leone, Alessandro; Bedogni, Giorgio; Ponissi, Veronica; Battezzati, Alberto; Beggio, Valentina; Magni, Paolo; Ruscica, Massimiliano; Bertoli, Simona

    2016-12-01

    The contribution of binge eating (BE) behaviour to cardiometabolic risk factors has been scarcely investigated so far. Previous studies have not considered the nutritional status and lifestyle of subjects suffering from BE. The aim of this study was to evaluate the contribution of BE to the metabolic syndrome (MS), its components, high total cholesterol and high LDL in a large sample of subjects, taking into account nutritional status, dietary habits, smoking status and physical activity. For this purpose, 5175 adults seeking a weight loss or maintenance programme were recruited. Anthropometrical measurements and blood parameters were measured. BE was evaluated using the Binge Eating Scale (BES). A fourteen-item questionnaire was used to evaluate the adherence to the Mediterranean diet. Smoking status and physical activity were investigated by interview. BE prevalence was 0·16 (95 % CI 0·15, 0·17). A sex- and age-adjusted Poisson regression model showed a higher prevalence of MS in binge eaters (0·33; 95 % CI 0·28, 0·37) compared with non-binge eaters (0·27; 95 % CI 0·25, 0·28, P=0·011). However, the statistical difference was lost after inclusion of BMI and lifestyle parameters in the multiple-adjusted model. We also evaluated the association between the continuous outcomes of interest and the BES score using a multivariable median regression model. We observed a positive, but clinically irrelevant, association between BES score and HDL levels (P<0·001). In conclusion, BE does not seem to be independently related to cardiometabolic risk factors. However, the screening and treatment of BE are of clinical relevance in order to reduce the risk of developing obesity.

  16. Physiological and lifestyle factors contributing to risk and severity of peri-orbital dark circles in the Brazilian population*

    PubMed Central

    Matsui, Mary S; Schalka, Sérgio; Vanderover, Garrett; Fthenakis, Christina G.; Christopher, J; Bombarda, Patricia Camarano Pinto; Bueno, Juliana Regina; Viscomi, Bianca Lenci Inácio; Bombarda Júnior, Mário Sérgio

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Peri-orbital dark circles are a cosmetic concern worldwide, and have been attributed to hyperpigmentation from allergy or atopic dermatitis, blood stasis, structural shadowing effects, and a thin epidermis/dermis under the eye. It is of interest to better understand lifestyle and demographic risk factors and the relative impact of melanin, blood and epidermal/dermal factors on the severity of Peri-orbital dark circles. OBJECTIVE To compare by non-invasive imaging the impact of biological factors to a visual grading scale for Peri-orbital dark circles, and test the correlation of various demographic factors with Peri-orbital dark circles. METHODS Subjects completed a lifestyle and health survey, and Peri-orbital dark circles severity was evaluated using standardized photographs. Hyperspectral image analysis was used to assess the contributions of melanin, blood volume, degree of blood oxygen saturation, and dermal scattering. RESULTS Family history was the most significant risk factor for Peri-orbital dark circles. The average age of onset was 24 years, and earlier onset correlated with higher severity scores. Asthma was significantly associated with Peri-orbital dark circles scores, but self-reported allergy was not. In this study, sleep was not correlated with Peri-orbital dark circles scores. Hyperspectral imaging indicated that melanin was the dominant correlate for Peri-orbital dark circles severity, while oxygen saturation was secondary. The difference between under-eye and cheek measurements for ∆L*and ∆E* were the most significant instrumental parameters correlated with visual assessment of Peri-orbital dark circles severity. CONCLUSION Although typically associated with lack of sleep, risk of Peri-orbital dark circles is primarily hereditary. The main factors contributing to the appearance of Peri-orbital dark circles are melanin and (deoxygenated) blood. PMID:26375218

  17. Violence: an unrecognized environmental exposure that may contribute to greater asthma morbidity in high risk inner-city populations.

    PubMed Central

    Wright, R J; Steinbach, S F

    2001-01-01

    In the United States, rising trends in asthma prevalence and severity, which disproportionately impact minorities and the urban poor, have not been fully explained by traditional physical environmental risk factors. Exigencies of inner-city living can increase psychosocial risk factors (e.g., stress) that confer increased asthma morbidity. In the United States, chronic exposure to violence is a unique stressor existing in many high-risk urban neighborhoods. In this paper, we describe a series of cases that exemplify a temporal association between exposure to violence and the precipitation of asthma exacerbations in four urban pediatric patients. In the first three cases, the nature of the exposure is characterized by the proximity to violence, which ranged from direct victimization (through either the threat of physical assault or actual assault) to learning of the death of a peer. The fourth case characterizes a scenario in which a child was exposed to severe parental conflict (i.e., domestic violence) in the hospital setting. Increasingly, studies have begun to explore the effect of living in a violent environment, with a chronic pervasive atmosphere of fear and the perceived or real threat of violence, on health outcomes in population-based studies. Violence exposure may contribute to environmental demands that tax both the individual and the communities in which they live to impact the inner-city asthma burden. At the individual level, intervention strategies aimed to reduce violence exposure, to reduce stress, or to counsel victims or witnesses to violence may be complementary to more traditional asthma treatment in these populations. Change in policies that address the social, economic, and political factors that contribute to crime and violence in urban America may have broader impact. PMID:11675274

  18. Androgenetic alopecia: identification of four genetic risk loci and evidence for the contribution of WNT signaling to its etiology.

    PubMed

    Heilmann, Stefanie; Kiefer, Amy K; Fricker, Nadine; Drichel, Dmitriy; Hillmer, Axel M; Herold, Christine; Tung, Joyce Y; Eriksson, Nicholas; Redler, Silke; Betz, Regina C; Li, Rui; Kárason, Ari; Nyholt, Dale R; Song, Kijoung; Vermeulen, Sita H; Kanoni, Stavroula; Dedoussis, George; Martin, Nicholas G; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Mooser, Vincent; Stefansson, Kari; Richards, J Brent; Becker, Tim; Brockschmidt, Felix F; Hinds, David A; Nöthen, Markus M

    2013-06-01

    The pathogenesis of androgenetic alopecia (AGA, male-pattern baldness) is driven by androgens, and genetic predisposition is the major prerequisite. Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies have reported that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at eight different genomic loci are associated with AGA development. However, a significant fraction of the overall heritable risk still awaits identification. Furthermore, the understanding of the pathophysiology of AGA is incomplete, and each newly associated locus may provide novel insights into contributing biological pathways. The aim of this study was to identify unknown AGA risk loci by replicating SNPs at the 12 genomic loci that showed suggestive association (5 × 10(-8)risk loci for AGA on chromosomes 2q35, 3q25.1, 5q33.3, and 12p12.1. The strongest association signal was obtained for rs7349332 (P=3.55 × 10(-15)) on chr2q35, which is located intronically in WNT10A. Expression studies in human hair follicle tissue suggest that WNT10A has a functional role in AGA etiology. Thus, our study provides genetic evidence supporting an involvement of WNT signaling in AGA development.

  19. A functional variant in miR-155 regulation region contributes to lung cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Cheng; Qin, Na; Shen, Wei; Gu, Yayun; Yan, Caiwang; Zhang, Kai; Dai, Ningbin; Zhu, Meng; Wu, Shuangshuang; Wang, Hui; Dai, Juncheng; Jin, Guangfu; Shen, Hongbing; Hu, Zhibin

    2015-01-01

    Emerging evidence suggested that upregulation of miR-155 could serve as a promising marker for the diagnosis and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In the present study, we genotyped rs767649 (A > T) located in miR-155 regulation region in 1341 cases and 1982 controls, and analyzed the associations of rs767649 with NSCLC risk and survival. Consequently, rs767649 exhibited the significant associations with the risk (adjusted OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.01–1.24, P = 0.031) and prognosis of NSCLC (adjusted HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.03–1.32, P = 0.014). Meanwhile, rs767649 specifically interacted with radio-chemotherapy (Pint = 0.013), and patients with both the rs767649-TT genotype and radio-chemotherapy had the highest hazard ratio (adjusted HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.26–2.16, P < 0.001). Furthermore, using functional assays and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Lung Adenocarcinoma (LUAD) dataset, we found that rs767649 variant allele could increase the transcriptional activity of miR-155, which in turn facilitated tumor growth and metastasis by inhibiting HBP1, TJP1, SMAD5 and PRKAR1A expression. Our findings suggested that rs767649 A > T might contribute to the increased risk and poor prognosis of NSCLC, highlighting the importance of rs767649 in the prevention and therapy of NSCLC. PMID:26543233

  20. [How the information system can contribute to the implementation of a risk management program in a hospital?].

    PubMed

    Staccini, P; Quaranta, J F; Staccini-Myx, A; Veyres, P; Jambou, P

    2003-09-01

    Nowadays, information system is recognised as one of the key points of the management strategy. An information system is regarded conceptualised as a mean to link 3 aspects of a firm (structure, organisation rules and staff). Its design and implementation have to meet the objectives of medical and economical evaluation, especially risk management objectives. In order to identify, analyse, reduce and prevent the occurrence of adverse events, and also to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the production of care services, the design of information systems should be based on a process analysis in order to describe and classify all the working practices within the hospital. According to various methodologies (usually top-down analysis), each process can be divided into activities. Each activity (especially each care activity) can be described according to its potential risks and expected results. For care professionals performing a task, the access to official or internal guidelines and the adverse events reporting forms has also to be defined. Putting together all the elements of such a process analysis will contribute to integrate, into daily practice, the management of risks, supported by the information system.

  1. Insulin therapy contributes to the increased risk of colorectal cancer in diabetes patients: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Recent epidemiological studies suggest that treatment with insulin may promote cancer growth. The present systematic review and meta-analysis of published observational studies was conducted to assess the risk of cancer during treatment with insulin. Materials and methods A compressive search was conducted through MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Chinese Biomedical Literature databases (CBM). Pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with a random-effects model. Results A total of four studies with one case-controls study and three cohort studies comparing the insulin therapy and colorectal cancer susceptibility were identified. When all four studies were analyzed, the summary RRs were 1.61 (95% CI = 1.18–1.35) in a random-effects model for individuals with insulin therapy, compared with individuals without insulin therapy, which suggests a statistically significant association between insulin use and colorectal cancer. Conclusions Our findings provides the evidence that insulin therapy may contribute to the risk of colorectal cancer. Virtual slides The virtual slide(s) for this article can be found here: http://www.diagnosticpathology.diagnomx.eu/vs/9339731010859509 PMID:24175949

  2. Operator-splitting-based reactive transport models in strong feedback of porosity change: The contribution of analytical solutions for accuracy validation and estimator improvement.

    PubMed

    Lagneau, Vincent; van der Lee, Jan

    2010-03-01

    Reactive transport is a highly non-linear problem requiring the most efficient algorithms to rapidly reach an accurate solution. The non-linearities are increased and the resolution is even more demanding and CPU-intensive when considering feedback of dissolution or precipitation reactions on hydrodynamic flow and transport, commonly referred to as the variable porosity case. This is particularly true near clogging, which leads to very stiff systems and therefore small time-steps. The operator-splitting approach often cited is a widely use method to solve these problems: it consists in solving sequentially the transport then the chemistry part of the problem. Operator-splitting appears to be an accurate approach, provided that the solution is iteratively improved at each time-step. The paper details analytical solutions and test-cases for this class of problems. They demonstrate that iterative improvement is then compulsory. They also helped develop an improved estimator/corrector method which allows to reach convergence faster and to reduce stiffness. The efficiency improvement is significant as illustrated by an example of carbonation of a cement paste, a well-known problem that leads to complete clogging of the interface layer.

  3. Evidence for vivianite formation and its contribution to long-term phosphorus retention in a recent lake sediment: a novel analytical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothe, M.; Frederichs, T.; Eder, M.; Kleeberg, A.; Hupfer, M.

    2014-09-01

    Vivianite, Fe3(PO4)2 · 8 H2O, is a ferrous iron phosphate mineral which forms in waterlogged soils and sediments. The phosphorus (P) bound in its crystal lattice is considered to be immobilised because vivianite is stable under anoxic, reducing, sedimentary conditions. Thus, vivianite formation can make a major contribution to P retention during early diagenesis. Much remains unknown about vivianite in sediments, because technical challenges have rendered direct identification and quantification difficult. To identify vivianite and assess its significance for P burial during early diagenesis we studied the consequences of a 1992/1993 in-lake application of FeCl3 and Fe(OH)3 aimed at restoring Lake Groß-Glienicke (Berlin, Germany). In a novel approach, we firstly applied a heavy-liquid separation to the iron-rich surface sediments which allowed direct identification of vivianite by X-ray diffraction in the high-density (ρ > 2.3 g cm-3) sediment fraction. Secondly, we assessed the contribution of vivianite to P retention, combining results from chemical digestion with magnetic susceptibility data derived from magnetic hysteresis measurements. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the dark blue spherical vivianite nodules were 40-180 μm in diameter, and formed of platy- and needle-shaped crystal aggregates. Although equilibrium calculations indicated supersaturation of vivianite throughout the upper 30 cm of the sediment, the vivianite deposits were homogeneously distributed within, and restricted to, the upper 23 cm only. Thus, supersaturated pore water alone cannot serve as a reliable predictor for the in situ formation of vivianite. In Lake Groß -Glienicke, vivianite formation continues to be triggered by the artificial iron amendment more than 20 yr ago, significantly contributing to P retention in surface sediments.

  4. Evidence for vivianite formation and its contribution to long-term phosphorus retention in a recent lake sediment: a novel analytical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothe, M.; Frederichs, T.; Eder, M.; Kleeberg, A.; Hupfer, M.

    2014-05-01

    Vivianite, Fe3(PO4)2 × 8 H2O, is a ferrous iron phosphate mineral which forms in waterlogged soils and sediments. The phosphorus (P) bound in its crystal lattice is considered to be immobilised because vivianite is stable under anoxic, reducing, sedimentary conditions. Thus, vivianite formation can make a major contribution to P retention during early diagenesis. Much remains unknown about vivianite in sediments, because technical challenges have rendered direct identification and quantification difficult. To identify vivianite and assess its significance for P burial during early diagenesis we studied the consequences of a 1992/1993 in-lake application of FeCl3 and Fe(OH)3 aimed at restoring Lake Groß-Glienicke (Berlin, Germany). In a novel approach, we firstly applied a heavy-liquid separation to the iron-rich surface sediments which allowed direct identification of vivianite by X-ray diffraction in the high-density (ρ > 2.3 g cm-3) sediment fraction. Secondly, we assessed the contribution of vivianite to P retention, combining results from chemical digestion with magnetic susceptibility data derived from magnetic hysteresis measurements. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the dark blue spherical vivianite nodules were 40-180 μm in diameter, and formed of platy- and needle shaped crystal aggregates. Although equilibrium calculations indicated supersaturation of vivianite throughout the upper 30 cm of the sediment, the vivianite deposits were homogeneously distributed within, and restricted to, the upper 23 cm only. Thus, supersaturated pore water alone cannot serve as a reliable predictor for the in-situ formation of vivianite. In Lake Groß -Glienicke, vivianite formation continues to be triggered by the artificial iron amendment more than 20 years ago, significantly contributing to P retention in surface sediments.

  5. Comparison of the analytical and clinical performances of Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV, Hybrid Capture 2, and DNA Chip assays in gynecology patients.

    PubMed

    Park, Seungman; Kang, Youjin; Kim, Dong Geun; Kim, Eui-Chong; Park, Sung Sup; Seong, Moon-Woo

    2013-08-01

    The detection of high-risk (HR) HPV in cervical cancer screening is important for early diagnosis of cervical cancer or pre-cancerous lesions. We evaluated the analytical and clinical performances of 3 HR HPV assays in Gynecology patients. A total of 991 specimens were included in this study: 787 specimens for use with a Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and 204 specimens for a HPV DNA microarray (DNA Chip). All specimens were tested using an Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV assay (Real-time HR), PGMY PCR, and sequence analysis. Clinical sensitivities for severe abnormal cytology (severe than high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) were 81.8% for Real-time HR, 77.3% for HC2, and 66.7% for DNA Chip, and clinical sensitivities for severe abnormal histology (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+) were 91.7% for HC2, 87.5% for Real-time HR, and 73.3% for DNA Chip. As compared to results of the sequence analysis, HC2, Real-time HR, and DNA Chip showed concordance rates of 94.3% (115/122), 90.0% (117/130), and 61.5% (16/26), respectively. The HC2 assay and Real-time HR assay showed comparable results to each other in both clinical and analytical performances, while the DNA Chip assay showed poor clinical and analytical performances. The Real-time HR assay can be a good alternative option for HR HPV testing with advantages of allowing full automation and simultaneous genotyping of HR types 16 and 18.

  6. Assessment of risk factors for postdural puncture headache in women undergoing cesarean delivery in Jordan: a retrospective analytical study

    PubMed Central

    Khraise, Wail N; Allouh, Mohammed Z; El-Radaideh, Khaled M; Said, Raed S; Al-Rusan, Anas M

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Postdural puncture headache (PDPH) is one of the most recognized complications after spinal anesthesia in women undergoing cesarean delivery. This study aimed to investigate the incidence of PDPH and its associated risk factors in women undergoing cesarean delivery in Jordan. Patients and methods This study included all women who underwent cesarean delivery at King Abdullah University Hospital in Jordan during 2015. Patient characteristics including age, weight, occurrence of PDPH, needle type, repeated puncture attempt, history of spinal anesthesia and PDPH, presence of tension headache, preeclampsia, migraine, sinusitis, and caffeine withdrawal were collated from hospital records. Statistical analyses were performed to assess the association of these characteristics with PDPH. Results The study cohort consisted of 680 women. Among these, only 43 (6.3%) had developed PDPH. The only factors that showed significant association (P<0.01) with PDPH were repeated puncture attempt and presence of tension headache. The repeated puncture attempt increased the risk of PDPH 2.55-fold, while presence of tension headache increased the risk 4.60-fold. Furthermore, the use of the traumatic 27 G Spinostar needle increased the risk of repeated puncture attempt 28.45-fold (P<0.01) compared with the use of the pencil-point 25 G Whitacre needle. Conclusion The major risk factors associated with the incidence of PDPH in women undergoing cesarean delivery in Jordan are repeated puncture attempt and presence of tension headache. The use of the pencil-point 25 G Whitacre needle is recommended since this was associated with a substantially reduced risk of repeated spinal puncture than the traumatic 27 G Spinostar needle. PMID:28360535

  7. Analytical Validation of a Personalized Medicine APOL1 Genotyping Assay for Nondiabetic Chronic Kidney Disease Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jinglan; Fedick, Anastasia; Wasserman, Stephanie; Zhao, Geping; Edelmann, Lisa; Bottinger, Erwin P.; Kornreich, Ruth; Scott, Stuart A.

    2017-01-01

    The incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) varies by ancestry, with African Americans (AA) having a threefold to fourfold higher rate than whites. Notably, two APOL1 alleles, termed G1 [c.(1072A>G; 1200T>G)] and G2 (c.1212_1217del6), are strongly associated with higher rates of nondiabetic CKD and an increased risk for hypertensive end-stage renal disease. This has prompted the opportunity to implement APOL1 testing to identify at-risk patients and modify other risk factors to reduce the progression of CKD to end-stage renal disease. We developed an APOL1 genotyping assay using multiplex allele-specific primer extension, and validated using 58 positive and negative controls. Genotyping results were completely concordant with Sanger sequencing, and both triplicate interrun and intrarun genotyping results were completely concordant. Multiethnic APOL1 allele frequencies were also determined by genotyping 7059 AA, Hispanic, and Asian individuals from the New York City metropolitan area. The AA, Hispanic, and Asian APOL1 G1 and G2 allele frequencies were 0.22 and 0.13, 0.037 and 0.025, and 0.013 and 0.004, respectively. Notably, approximately 14% of the AA population carried two risk alleles and are at increased risk for CKD, compared with <1% of the Hispanic and Asian populations. This novel APOL1 genotyping assay is robust and highly accurate, and represents one of the first personalized medicine clinical genetic tests for disease risk prediction. PMID:26773863

  8. Risk and Protective Factors of Emotional and/or Behavioral Disorders in Children and Adolescents: A Mega-Analytic Synthesis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crews, S. Dean; Bender, Hermine; Vanderwood, Mike; Cook, Clayton R.; Gresham, Frank M.; Kern, Lee

    2007-01-01

    Professionals working with children who have severe emotional/behavioral disorders (E/BD) need to understand the risk and protective factors (RPFs) that are correlated with the development of these behavior patterns, for at least 3 reasons. First, significant numbers of students experience negative outcomes or fail to achieve positive outcomes.…

  9. Contribution of the CHEK2 1100delC variant to risk of multiple colorectal adenoma and carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Lipton, Lara; Fleischmann, Christina; Sieber, Oliver M; Thomas, Huw J W; Hodgson, Shirley V; Tomlinson, Ian P M; Houlston, Richard S

    2003-10-28

    Aneuploidy is a characteristic of a subset of colorectal tumours. CHEK2 (also known as CHK2) is one of the cell cycle checkpoint genes coding for a family of proteins that sense damage in eukaryotic cells. Germline variation in CHEK2 has recently been shown to confer cancer susceptibility. Heterozygous mutations have been identified in patients with TP53-negative Li-Fraumeni syndrome. Furthermore, the CHEK2 1100delC variant carried by 1% of the population has been shown to act as a low penetrance allele for both breast and prostate cancers. To further our knowledge about the contribution of CHEK2 1100delC to cancer incidence we have analysed a series of 149 patients with multiple colorectal adenomas some of whom developed colorectal cancer. The CHEK2 1100delC allele was not over-represented in cases suggesting that this variant is not associated with an increased risk of colorectal disease.

  10. Reducing psychosocial risks through supervisors' development: a contribution for a brief version of the "Stress Management Competency Indicator Tool".

    PubMed

    Toderi, Stefano; Gaggia, Andrea; Balducci, Cristian; Sarchielli, Guido

    2015-06-15

    With the recent changes in the world of work psychosocial risks are increasingly prevalent, causing work stress and physical and mental illnesses, which have a tremendous impact on public health and social participation. Supervisors' behaviour development was proposed as an innovative intervention that can reduce psychosocial risks. The "Stress Management Competency Indicator Tool" is one of the most important questionnaires that assess managers' preventive behaviour. However, its psychometric properties have never been evaluated and the length of the questionnaire (66 items) limits its practical applicability. The aim of this study was to contribute to the development of the questionnaire by providing psychometric evidence on a brief version of the tool focusing on the "Managing and Communicating existing and future Work" cluster of behaviours, which has been found to be the crucial one in terms of stress prevention. A questionnaire was administered to 178 employees of two Italian public organizations (a municipality and a hospital), measuring the supervisors' "Managing and Communicating existing and future Work" competency, and the affective well-being and work team effectiveness. The results showed excellent psychometric properties of the supervisors' behaviour scale and confirmed the expected relationships with criterion outcomes (affective well-being and team effectiveness). Overall, the factorial structure and dimensionality, the construct validity and reliability, and the concurrent validity of the tool were strongly supported by this study. We concluded that the brief version of the scale is a valid and reliable measure that can be easily used in practice and that can contribute to the development of research and practice on this topic. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Dietary risk markers that contribute to the aetiology of hypertension in black South African children: the THUSA BANA study.

    PubMed

    Schutte, A E; van Rooyen, J M; Huisman, H W; Kruger, H S; Malan, N T; De Ridder, J H

    2003-01-01

    Although clinical hypertension occurs less frequently in children than in adults, ample evidence supports the concept that the roots of essential hypertension extend back to childhood. Since little is available in the literature on causal dietary factors of hypertension in children, this study hypothesised that certain dietary factors can be identified as risk markers that might contribute to the aetiology of hypertension in black children. Children aged 10-15 years were randomly selected from 30 schools in the North West Province from 2000 to 2001. These children comprised 321 black males and 373 females from rural to urbanised communities, of which 40 male and 79 female subjects were identified with high-normal to hypertensive blood pressure. Blood pressure was measured with a Finapres apparatus and data were analysed with the Fast Modelflo software program to provide systolic, diastolic and mean blood pressure. A 24-h dietary recall questionnaire and weight and height measurements were taken. In a stepwise regression analysis, the following variables were significantly associated (P < or = 0.05) with blood pressure parameters of hypertensive males: biotin, folic acid, pantothenic acid, zinc and magnesium. Energy, biotin and vitamin A intakes were significantly associated with blood pressure parameters of hypertensive females. No significant dietary markers were indicated for any of the normotensive groups. Dietary intakes of all of these nutrients were well below the dietary reference intakes. In conclusion, the dietary results coupled with the cardiovascular parameters of this study identified folic acid and biotin as risk markers that could contribute to the aetiology of hypertension in black persons. The low intakes of these nutrients, among others, is a matter of serious concern, as is the increasing tendency towards urbanisation.

  12. E-cadherin gene promoter hypermethylation may contribute to the risk of bladder cancer among Asian populations.

    PubMed

    Li, Gang; Liu, Yili; Yin, Huming; Zhang, Xuefeng; Mo, Xiaodong; Tang, Jing; Chen, Weiguo

    2014-01-15

    There are increasing scientific evidences suggesting that E-cadherin gene promoter hypermethylation may contribute to the development and progression of bladder cancer, but existing studies have yielded inconclusive results. This meta-analysis aims to assess the role of E-cadherin promoter hypermethylation in bladder carcinogenesis. We conducted an extensive literature search for relevant studies on PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and CBM databases from their inception through May 1st, 2013. This meta-analysis was performed using the STATA 12.0 software. Crude risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated. Ten clinical studies were included in this meta-analysis with a total of 620 bladder cancer samples,199 normal adjacent samples and 131 normal urothelium tissue. Our meta-analysis revealed that the methylation frequencies in bladder cancer tissues were obviously higher than those in normal control tissues (RR = 2.02, 95%CI: 1.00–4.12, P = 0.050). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity indicated that higher methylation frequencies were observed in bladder cancer tissues among Asian populations (RR = 2.35, 95%CI: 1.11–4.95, P = 0.025), but not among Caucasian populations (RR = 1.62, 95%CI: 0.48–5.53, P = 0.439). Univariate and multivariate meta-regression analyses showed that ethnicity may be the major source of heterogeneity (Pb0.05).No publication bias was detected in this meta-analysis (P=0.358). The present meta-analysis indicates that E-cadherin gene promoter hypermethylation may contribute to increased risk of bladder cancer among Asian populations.

  13. Analytic materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milton, Graeme W.

    2016-11-01

    The theory of inhomogeneous analytic materials is developed. These are materials where the coefficients entering the equations involve analytic functions. Three types of analytic materials are identified. The first two types involve an integer p. If p takes its maximum value, then we have a complete analytic material. Otherwise, it is incomplete analytic material of rank p. For two-dimensional materials, further progress can be made in the identification of analytic materials by using the well-known fact that a 90° rotation applied to a divergence-free field in a simply connected domain yields a curl-free field, and this can then be expressed as the gradient of a potential. Other exact results for the fields in inhomogeneous media are reviewed. Also reviewed is the subject of metamaterials, as these materials provide a way of realizing desirable coefficients in the equations.

  14. Analytic materials.

    PubMed

    Milton, Graeme W

    2016-11-01

    The theory of inhomogeneous analytic materials is developed. These are materials where the coefficients entering the equations involve analytic functions. Three types of analytic materials are identified. The first two types involve an integer p. If p takes its maximum value, then we have a complete analytic material. Otherwise, it is incomplete analytic material of rank p. For two-dimensional materials, further progress can be made in the identification of analytic materials by using the well-known fact that a 90(°) rotation applied to a divergence-free field in a simply connected domain yields a curl-free field, and this can then be expressed as the gradient of a potential. Other exact results for the fields in inhomogeneous media are reviewed. Also reviewed is the subject of metamaterials, as these materials provide a way of realizing desirable coefficients in the equations.

  15. Hemolysate-mediated platelet aggregation: an additional risk mechanism contributing to thrombosis of continuous flow ventricular assist devices.

    PubMed

    Tran, Phat L; Pietropaolo, Maria-Grazia; Valerio, Lorenzo; Brengle, William; Wong, Raymond K; Kazui, Toshinobu; Khalpey, Zain I; Redaelli, Alberto; Sheriff, Jawaad; Bluestein, Danny; Slepian, Marvin J

    2016-07-01

    Despite the clinical success and growth in the utilization of continuous flow ventricular assist devices (cfVADs) for the treatment of advanced heart failure, hemolysis and thrombosis remain major limitations. Inadequate and/or ineffective anticoagulation regimens, combined with high pump speed and non-physiological flow patterns, can result in hemolysis which often is accompanied by pump thrombosis. An unexpected increase in cfVADs thrombosis was reported by multiple major VAD implanting centers in 2014, highlighting the association of hemolysis and a rise in lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) presaging thrombotic events. It is well established that thrombotic complications arise from the abnormal shear stresses generated by cfVADs. What remains unknown is the link between cfVAD-associated hemolysis and pump thrombosis. Can hemolysis of red blood cells (RBCs) contribute to platelet aggregation, thereby, facilitating prothrombotic complications in cfVADs? Herein, we examine the effect of RBC-hemolysate and selected major constituents, i.e., lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and plasma free hemoglobin (pHb) on platelet aggregation, utilizing electrical resistance aggregometry. Our hypothesis is that elements of RBCs, released as a result of shear-mediated hemolysis, will contribute to platelet aggregation. We show that RBC hemolysate and pHb, but not LDH, are direct contributors to platelet aggregation, posing an additional risk mechanism for cfVAD thrombosis.

  16. Data quality affects meta-analytic conclusions: a response to Miner and Raju (2004) concerning entrepreneurial risk propensity.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Wayne H; Roth, Philip L

    2004-02-01

    J. B. Miner and N. S. Raju (2004) contended that there are additional studies that compare the risk propensity of entrepreneurs and managers, which, when added to the data from W. H. Stewart and P. L. Roth (2001) and meta-analyzed, produce relationships between risk propensity and entrepreneurial status that are substantially weaker than previously believed. This conclusion was evaluated by identifying and examining methodological problems associated with their inclusion of effect sizes (i.e., ds) from studies with variables not relevant to research questions, dependent samples, extraneous variance in outcome variables, and confusion of constructs. When these methodological issues were addressed, a new meta-analysis indicated an overall conclusion consistent with that of Stewart and Roth, but the results varied according to instrumentation, particularly objective instrumentation (observed d = 0.31) versus the Miner Sentence Completion Scale-Form T (observed d = -0.35). ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

  17. Contributions of early cortical processing and reading ability to functional status in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

    PubMed

    Carrión, Ricardo E; Cornblatt, Barbara A; McLaughlin, Danielle; Chang, Jeremy; Auther, Andrea M; Olsen, Ruth H; Javitt, Daniel C

    2015-05-01

    There is a growing recognition that individuals at clinical high risk need intervention for functional impairments, along with emerging psychosis, as the majority of clinical high risk (CHR) individuals show persistent deficits in social and role functioning regardless of transition to psychosis. Recent studies have demonstrated reduced reading ability as a potential cause of functional disability in schizophrenia, related to underlying deficits in generation of mismatch negativity (MMN). The present study extends these findings to subjects at CHR. The sample consisted of 34 CHR individuals and 33 healthy comparison subjects (CNTLs) from the Recognition and Prevention (RAP) Program at the Zucker Hillside Hospital in New York. At baseline, reading measures were collected, along with MMN to pitch, duration, and intensity deviants, and measures of neurocognition, and social and role (academic/work) functioning. CHR subjects showed impairments in reading ability, neurocognition, and MMN generation, relative to CNTLs. Lower-amplitude MMN responses were correlated with worse reading ability, slower processing speed, and poorer social and role functioning. However, when entered into a simultaneous regression, only reduced responses to deviance in sound duration and volume predicted poor social and role functioning, respectively. Deficits in reading ability exist even prior to illness onset in schizophrenia and may represent a decline in performance from prior abilities. As in schizophrenia, deficits are related to impaired MMN generation, suggesting specific contributions of sensory-level impairment to neurocognitive processes related to social and role function. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk factors contributing to the development of carboplatin-related delayed hypersensitivity reactions in Japanese patients with gynecologic cancers.

    PubMed

    Sugimoto, Hiroko; Iwamoto, Takuya; Murashima, Yukiko; Tabata, Tsutomu; Sagawa, Norimasa; Okuda, Masahiro

    2011-02-01

    The rate of hypersensitivity reactions in patients receiving carboplatin (CBDCA) has been reported to increase after multiple doses of the agent. However, risk factors for these onsets have not been well described. In this study, we investigated the contribution of the reported risk factors to the onset of CBDCA-related delayed hypersensitivity reactions. We reviewed the records of gynecologic cancer patients receiving CBDCA of more than 7 cycles in Mie University Hospital from March 2006 to July 2009. The patients were divided into two groups on the basis of whether hypersensitivity reactions developed (13 patients) or not (43 patients). Thereafter, the potential influences of the patients' characteristics on the development of CBDCA-related delayed hypersensitivity reactions were explored using logistic regression analyses. The median CBDCA-free interval (10 months) in patients with hypersensitivity reactions was significantly higher than that (3 months) in patients without hypersensitivity reactions. Logistic regression analyses revealed a CBDCA-free interval >13 months (odds ratio 22.2, 95% confidence interval 2.57-192, p < 0.01) and a maximum dose of CBDCA > 650 mg (odds ratio 9.52, 95% confidence interval 1.04-93.9; p < 0.05) were significantly correlated with the incidence of CBDCA-related delayed hypersensitivity reactions. Careful attention should be paid to the onset of delayed hypersensitivity reactions for recurrent gynecologic cancer patients receiving CBDCA > 650 mg after an interval of more than 13 months from the previous CBDCA administration.

  19. Contributions of Early Cortical Processing and Reading Ability to Functional Status in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Carrión, Ricardo E.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; McLaughlin, Danielle; Chang, Jeremy; Auther, Andrea M.; Olsen, Ruth H.; Javitt, Daniel C.

    2015-01-01

    Background There is a growing recognition that individuals at clinical high risk need intervention for functional impairments, along with emerging psychosis, as the majority of clinical high risk (CHR) individuals show persistent deficits in social and role functioning regardless of transition to psychosis. Recent studies have demonstrated reduced reading ability as a potential cause of functional disability in schizophrenia, related to underlying deficits in generation of mismatch negativity (MMN). The present study extends these findings to subjects at CHR. Methods The sample consisted of 34 CHR individuals and 33 healthy comparisons subjects (CNTLs) from the Recognition and Prevention (RAP) Program at the Zucker Hillside Hospital in New York. At baseline, reading measures were collected, along with MMN to pitch, duration, and intensity deviants, and measures of neurocognition, and social and role (academic/work) functioning. Results CHR subjects showed impairments in reading ability, neurocognition, and MMN generation, relative to CNTLs. Lower-amplitude MMN responses were correlated with worse reading ability, slower processing speed, and poorer social and role functioning. However, when entered into a simultaneous regression, only reduced responses to deviance in sound duration and volume predicted poor social and role functioning, respectively. Conclusions Deficits in reading ability exist even prior to illness onset in schizophrenia and may represent a decline in performance from prior abilities. As in schizophrenia, deficits are related to impaired MMN generation, suggesting specific contributions of sensory-level impairment to neurocognitive processes related to social and role function. PMID:25728833

  20. Assessing the underlying breast cancer risk of Chinese females contributed by dietary intake of residual DDT from agricultural soils.

    PubMed

    Tang, Mengling; Zhao, Meirong; Zhou, Shanshan; Chen, Kun; Zhang, Chunlong; Liu, Weiping

    2014-12-01

    The greatest concern over DDT exposure in China arose since the early 1990s for the rising breast cancer incidence, and the cause still remains to be elucidated. An extensive survey of DDT background in agricultural soils, covered the entire region of China, was conducted. DDT at concentrations greater than 100 ng/g (the China's Farmland Environmental Quality Evaluation Standards for Edible Agricultural Products) was found to impact 42.3 million Chinese population. Considering the geographical differences with diverse DDT contributions and different diet products and habits, the average daily dietary intake was modeled and estimated to be 0.34 μg/kg p,p'-DDE (the main bioactive constituent in DDT). Population attributable fraction derived from a case-control study from 78 women with breast cancer and 72 controls was used to assess the DDT exposure risk to breast cancer. Based on the estimated population attributable fraction with a median value of 0.6% (IQR 0.23-2.11%), the excess annual breast cancer incidence rate attributable to p,p'-DDE exposure averaged 0.06×10(-5) with significant spatial variations varying from 0.00021×10(-5) to 11.05×10(-5) in Chinese females. Exposure to DDT is a contributor to breast cancer, but the overall limited relative risk and population attributable fraction imply confounding factors for breast cancer in Chinese females. Exposure risk in a regional scale helps understand the cause and prevention of breast cancer. Our mapping and modeling method could be used to assess other environmental carcinogens and related cancer diseases.

  1. The Effects of Risk-Glorifying Media Exposure on Risk-Positive Cognitions, Emotions, and Behaviors: A Meta-Analytic Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Kastenmuller, Andreas; Vogrincic, Claudia; Sauer, Anne

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a surge in the quantity of media content that glorifies risk-taking behavior, such as risky driving, extreme sports, or binge drinking. The authors conducted a meta-analysis involving more than 80,000 participants and 105 independent effect sizes to examine whether exposure to such media depictions increased their…

  2. The Effects of Risk-Glorifying Media Exposure on Risk-Positive Cognitions, Emotions, and Behaviors: A Meta-Analytic Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Kastenmuller, Andreas; Vogrincic, Claudia; Sauer, Anne

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a surge in the quantity of media content that glorifies risk-taking behavior, such as risky driving, extreme sports, or binge drinking. The authors conducted a meta-analysis involving more than 80,000 participants and 105 independent effect sizes to examine whether exposure to such media depictions increased their…

  3. Anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analytic review

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Kate H.; Franklin, Joseph C.; Ribeiro, Jessica D.; Kleiman, Evan M.; Fox, Kathryn R.; Nock, Matthew K.

    2016-01-01

    Suicidal thoughts and behaviors are highly prevalent public health problems with devastating consequences. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of risk factors for suicide to identify effective intervention targets. The aim of this meta-analysis was to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths. We conducted a literature search through December 2014; of the 65 articles meeting our inclusion criteria, we extracted 180 cases in which an anxiety-specific variable was used to longitudinally predict a suicide-related outcome. Results indicated that anxiety is a statistically significant, yet weak, predictor of suicide ideation (OR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.88) and attempts (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.83), but not deaths (OR=1.01, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.18). The strongest associations were observed for PTSD. Estimates were reduced after accounting for publication bias, and diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity but poor sensitivity. Overall, the extant literature suggests that anxiety and its disorders, at least when these constructs are measured in isolation and as trait-like constructs, are relatively weak predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors over long follow-up periods. Implications for future research priorities are discussed. PMID:26688478

  4. Anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Bentley, Kate H; Franklin, Joseph C; Ribeiro, Jessica D; Kleiman, Evan M; Fox, Kathryn R; Nock, Matthew K

    2016-02-01

    Suicidal thoughts and behaviors are highly prevalent public health problems with devastating consequences. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of risk factors for suicide to identify effective intervention targets. The aim of this meta-analysis was to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths. We conducted a literature search through December 2014; of the 65 articles meeting our inclusion criteria, we extracted 180 cases in which an anxiety-specific variable was used to longitudinally predict a suicide-related outcome. Results indicated that anxiety is a statistically significant, yet weak, predictor of suicide ideation (OR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.88) and attempts (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.83), but not deaths (OR=1.01, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.18). The strongest associations were observed for PTSD. Estimates were reduced after accounting for publication bias, and diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity but poor sensitivity. Overall, the extant literature suggests that anxiety and its disorders, at least when these constructs are measured in isolation and as trait-like constructs, are relatively weak predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors over long follow-up periods. Implications for future research priorities are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group D (XPD) gene polymorphisms contribute to bladder cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Li, Su-Xia; Dai, Qiang-Sheng; Chen, Su-Xiu; Zhang, Shao-Dan; Liao, Xiao-Yu; Deng, Xia; Chi, Hong-Bo; Li, Feng-Jie; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Jiang, Yi-Yan

    2014-04-01

    Numerous epidemiological studies have been conducted to investigate the association between Xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group D (XPD) Asp312Asn (rs1799793 G > A) and Lys751Gln (rs13181 A > C) polymorphisms and bladder cancer risk; however, the conclusions remain controversial. With this in mind, we performed this meta-analysis with 11 studies including 3,797 cases and 5,094 controls for Asp312Asn and 21 studies including 6,360 cases and 7,894 controls for Lys751Gln polymorphism. We searched available literatures from PubMed, Embase, and CBM databases. Crude odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to assess the strength of the associations. Moreover, to validate biological plausibility of our findings, the effects of these two polymorphisms on XPD gene expression within three ethnicities was determine by gene expression analysis based on imputed genotypes from HapMap. Overall, the variant allele of Asp312Asn polymorphism was associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer (Asn/Asn vs. Asp/Asp: OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.19-1.91; Asp/Asn vs. Asp/Asp: OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.12-1.35; recessive model: OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.10-1.61; dominant model: OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.14-1.52; and allele comparing: OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.11-1.42). We found the Lys751Gln was associated with increased bladder cancer risk only under the recessive model (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01-1.29). Stratification analyses demonstrated an increased risk for Asians and hospital-based studies under all genetic models while only under the dominant model for Caucasians as to the Asp312Asn polymorphism and for Caucasians under the recessive model as to the Lys751Gln polymorphism. We also found the Asp312Asn polymorphism can significantly influence mRNA expression levels among Asians and Caucasians, and the Lys751Gln polymorphism has a similar effect for Caucasians. Despite some limitations, this meta-analysis suggests that polymorphisms in XPD gene may contribute to

  6. Comparison of clinical and analytical performance of the Abbott Realtime High Risk HPV test to the performance of hybrid capture 2 in population-based cervical cancer screening.

    PubMed

    Poljak, Mario; Ostrbenk, Anja; Seme, Katja; Ucakar, Veronika; Hillemanns, Peter; Bokal, Eda Vrtacnik; Jancar, Nina; Klavs, Irena

    2011-05-01

    The clinical performance of the Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV (human papillomavirus) test (RealTime) and that of the Hybrid Capture 2 HPV DNA test (hc2) were prospectively compared in the population-based cervical cancer screening setting. In women >30 years old (n = 3,129), the clinical sensitivity of RealTime for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 (CIN2) or worse (38 cases) and its clinical specificity for lesions of less than CIN2 (3,091 controls) were 100% and 93.3%, respectively, and those of hc2 were 97.4% and 91.8%, respectively. A noninferiority score test showed that the clinical specificity (P < 0.0001) and clinical sensitivity (P = 0.011) of RealTime were noninferior to those of hc2 at the recommended thresholds of 98% and 90%. In the total study population (women 20 to 64 years old; n = 4,432; 57 cases, 4,375 controls), the clinical sensitivity and specificity of RealTime were 98.2% and 89.5%, and those of hc2 were 94.7% and 87.7%, respectively. The analytical sensitivity and analytical specificity of RealTime in detecting targeted HPV types evaluated with the largest sample collection to date (4,479 samples) were 94.8% and 99.8%, and those of hc2 were 93.4% and 97.8%, respectively. Excellent analytical agreement between the two assays was obtained (kappa value, 0.84), while the analytical accuracy of RealTime was significantly higher than that of hc2. RealTime demonstrated high intralaboratory reproducibility and interlaboratory agreement with 500 samples retested 61 to 226 days after initial testing in two different laboratories. RealTime can be considered to be a reliable and robust HPV assay clinically comparable to hc2 for the detection of CIN2+ lesions in a population-based cervical cancer screening setting.

  7. An Empirical Approach to Explore the Relationship Between Measures of Disproportionate Reporting and Relative Risks from Analytical Studies.

    PubMed

    Maciá-Martínez, Miguel-Angel; de Abajo, Francisco J; Roberts, Gilly; Slattery, Jim; Thakrar, Bharat; Wisniewski, Antoni F Z

    2016-01-01

    Although it seems reasonable to suppose that a drug that increases the risk of an adverse event might tend to show increased disproportionality statistics in spontaneous reporting databases, that relationship is not clear. Therefore, an empirical approach was taken to investigate the relationship between proportional reporting ratios (PRRs) and relative risk (RR) estimates from formal studies in a set of known adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Drug-event pairs that were the subject of pharmacovigilance-driven European regulatory actions from 2007 to 2010 were selected. Only pairs having RR derived from formal studies and where it was considered that there was well-established evidence supporting the actions were included. A best estimate of the RR for each ADR was chosen based on pre-specified rules. PRRs were then calculated in Eudravigilance using only those cases reported before the date of first recognition of the ADR in the medical community. An additional analysis was carried out in FEDRA, the Spanish spontaneous reports database. A descriptive analysis and an orthogonal regression model were performed. From an initial dataset of 78 drug-event pairs, 15 were selected. The regression model (ln RR = 0.203 + 0.463 × ln PRR) showed a significant (p < 0.001) correlation between RR and PRR in Eudravigilance. None of the ADR-related variables analysed modified the relationship. Exploratory results in FEDRA went in the same direction. Disproportionality measures should not replace formal studies but could provide an initial indication of the likely clinical importance of an ADR, should the signal be confirmed subsequently. Whether the same conclusions can be applied to other datasets should be further studied.

  8. Study of biomechanical overload in urban gardeners of Barcelona: application of analytical models for risk exposure evaluation in annual working cycle.

    PubMed

    Alvarez-Casado, Enrique; Hernandez-Soto, Aquiles; Tello, Sandoval; Gual, Rosa

    2012-01-01

    Occupational musculoskeletal disorders in the upper limbs and its consequences on the impact and prevalence in the work force are subject of many investigations in almost all the production fields. However, the exposure to this kind of risk factor on urban gardeners has not been well studied so far. The kind of plant varieties used in the parks, the tools that they use, as much as the necessary actions for the maintenance of the park, have an impact on the biomechanical overload of the upper limbs. Additionally, the analysis of the exposure to the biomechanical overload on upper limbs in gardening work is a complex task, mainly because it is an activity highly variable and of annual cycle. For this reason an analytical model for risk exposure evaluation is necessary. During this research the work activity of 29 gardeners in 3 urban parks of Barcelona has been analyzed. Each park has a specific acting plan, in relation with the quantity and the typology of vegetal species, its classification and the season of the year. Work and observation and video recording sessions on-site were conducted. The video-graphic registration was done on workers without any prior musculoskeletal disorder and with a minimum labour experience of 5 years. Moreover, the analysis of saturation time, considered as the relation of the repetitive working hours in reference with the hours of effective work was done. Using the registered tasks on video, the biomechanical overload on upper limbs applying the OCRA Checklist method was analyzed. A methodological procedure to analyze the risk exposure in annual working cycle has been proposed. The results that we got allow us to get information that can help in the assignment of the tasks and in the training of staff, as well as in the recommendations of the urban landscape's design. All these aspects have the goal to decrease the risk to develop work-related musculoskeletal disorders.

  9. A meta-analytic evaluation of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) C-629A polymorphism in association with coronary heart disease risk and lipid changes

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Shouwei; Dai, Ruozhu; Lin, Rong

    2017-01-01

    Lipid metabolism plays an essential role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, a major cause for coronary heart disease (CHD). Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) is an important glycoprotein involved in lipid metabolism by transferring cholesteryl esters to apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins in exchange for triglycerides. The objective of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the association of CETP C-629A polymorphism with CHD risk and lipid changes. Four public databases were searched, and data from 17 qualified articles were extracted in duplicate and analyzed by STATA software. Overall association of C-629A with CHD risk was nonsignificant in 5441 patients and 7967 controls. Subgroup analyses by ethnicity revealed significance only in Caucasians, with the odds of CHD being 1.18, 1.43 and 1.41 under allelic, genotypic and dominant models, respectively (P < 0.001). Similarly, the -629C allele increased the corresponding risk of myocardial infarction by 1.23-, 1.28- and 1.29-fold (P < 0.02). The association of C-629A with CHD was significantly strengthened in prospective and large studies. Moreover, carriers of the -629C allele had significant higher levels of circulating CETP (weighted mean difference [WMD]: 0.45 μg/mL; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25 to 0.65; P < 0.001), but lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (WMD: -3.65 mg/dL; 95% CI: -5.59 to -1.70; P < 0.001) relative to the -629AA homozygotes. The probability of publication bias was low. Our meta-analytic findings collectively demonstrate that the -629C allele was significantly associated with an increased risk of CHD in Caucasians, and this association may be mediated by its phenotypic regulation on circulating CETP and HDL-C. PMID:27791990

  10. A meta-analytic evaluation of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) C-629A polymorphism in association with coronary heart disease risk and lipid changes.

    PubMed

    Lin, Shouwei; Dai, Ruozhu; Lin, Rong

    2017-01-10

    Lipid metabolism plays an essential role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, a major cause for coronary heart disease (CHD). Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) is an important glycoprotein involved in lipid metabolism by transferring cholesteryl esters to apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins in exchange for triglycerides. The objective of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the association of CETP C-629A polymorphism with CHD risk and lipid changes. Four public databases were searched, and data from 17 qualified articles were extracted in duplicate and analyzed by STATA software. Overall association of C-629A with CHD risk was nonsignificant in 5441 patients and 7967 controls. Subgroup analyses by ethnicity revealed significance only in Caucasians, with the odds of CHD being 1.18, 1.43 and 1.41 under allelic, genotypic and dominant models, respectively (P < 0.001). Similarly, the -629C allele increased the corresponding risk of myocardial infarction by 1.23-, 1.28- and 1.29-fold (P < 0.02). The association of C-629A with CHD was significantly strengthened in prospective and large studies. Moreover, carriers of the -629C allele had significant higher levels of circulating CETP (weighted mean difference [WMD]: 0.45 μg/mL; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25 to 0.65; P < 0.001), but lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (WMD: -3.65 mg/dL; 95% CI: -5.59 to -1.70; P < 0.001) relative to the -629AA homozygotes. The probability of publication bias was low. Our meta-analytic findings collectively demonstrate that the -629C allele was significantly associated with an increased risk of CHD in Caucasians, and this association may be mediated by its phenotypic regulation on circulating CETP and HDL-C.

  11. Increased micronucleus frequency in peripheral blood lymphocytes contributes to cancer risk in the methyl isocyanate-affected population of Bhopal.

    PubMed

    Senthilkumar, Chinnu Sugavanam; Akhter, Sameena; Malla, Tahir Mohiuddin; Sah, Nand Kishore; Ganesh, Narayanan

    2015-01-01

    lifestyle habits (smoking, alcohol consumption and tobacco-chewing) was observed only in the controls. Our results suggest that EF and FOE are more susceptible to cancer development, as compared to EM and MOE. The genotoxic outcome detected in FOE reflects their parental exposure to MIC. Briefly, the observed cytogenetic damage to the MIC-affected could contribute to cancer risk, especially in the EF and FOE.

  12. BRCA1 founder mutations do not contribute to increased risk of gastric cancer in the Polish population.

    PubMed

    Ławniczak, Małgorzata; Jakubowska, Anna; Białek, Andrzej; Lubiński, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Starzyńska, Teresa

    2016-01-01

    Gastric cancer (GC) is part of the spectrum of diseases linked to BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations that increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancer. Data suggesting an increased risk of developing GC among BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers are based almost exclusively on indirect studies. The objective was to assess in a direct study whether there is a relationship between GC and selected recurrent BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in the Polish population. Three hundred seventeen GC patients (193 males and 124 females; mean age 59.5 ± 12.8 y) diagnosed at the Department of Gastroenterology at the Pomeranian Medical University were included in this retrospective study. All patients were genotyped for 3 BRCA1 Polish founder mutations (5382insC, C61G and 4153delA) as well as for 9 known recurrent mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Genotyping was performed using allele-specific oligonucleotide polymerase chain reaction (ASA-PCR) for 4153delA and 5382insC, restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) for C61G and TaqMan real-time PCR for 185delAG, 3819del5, 3875del4, 5370C > T, 886delGT, 4075delGT, 5467insT, 6174delT and 8138del5. Among tested mutations one founder BRCA1 mutation 5382insC was detected in two of 317 (0.63 %) GC cases. A comparison of frequency of detected BRCA1 founder mutations in GC patients to previously described 4570 Polish controls (0.63 % vs. 0.48 %) failed to indicate an increased risk of GC in the mutation carriers (OR = 1.3; 95 % CI 0.3-5.6, p = 0.71). A comparison of frequency of GC male cases and male controls (1.0 % vs. 0.43 %,OR = 1.5; 95 % CI 0.3-6.4, p = 0.61) allowed to formulate the same conclusion that there is no increased risk for GC for males. None of the 9 recurrent BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations has been detected in tested GC patients. The current study indicates that founder BRCA1 mutations reported in Polish breast/ovarian cancer patients do not contribute to increased GC risk. The nine tested recurrent

  13. Towards Risk-Based Test Protocols: Estimating the Contribution of Intensive Testing to the UK Bovine Tuberculosis Problem

    PubMed Central

    van Dijk, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Eradicating disease from livestock populations involves the balancing act of removing sufficient numbers of diseased animals without removing too many healthy individuals in the process. As ever more tests for bovine tuberculosis (BTB) are carried out on the UK cattle herd, and each positive herd test triggers more testing, the question arises whether ‘false positive’ results contribute significantly to the measured BTB prevalence. Here, this question is explored using simple probabilistic models of test behaviour. When the screening test is applied to the average UK herd, the estimated proportion of test-associated false positive new outbreaks is highly sensitive to small fluctuations in screening test specificity. Estimations of this parameter should be updated as a priority. Once outbreaks have been confirmed in screening-test positive herds, the following rounds of intensive testing with more sensitive, albeit less specific, tests are highly likely to remove large numbers of false positive animals from herds. Despite this, it is unlikely that significantly more truly infected animals are removed. BTB test protocols should become based on quantified risk in order to prevent the needless slaughter of large numbers of healthy animals. PMID:23717517

  14. A genome-wide study shows a limited contribution of rare copy number variants to Alzheimer's disease risk.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Jade; Rees, Elliott; Harold, Denise; Ivanov, Dobril; Gerrish, Amy; Sims, Rebecca; Hollingworth, Paul; Stretton, Alexandra; Holmans, Peter; Owen, Michael J; O'Donovan, Michael C; Williams, Julie; Kirov, George

    2013-02-15

    We assessed the role of rare copy number variants (CNVs) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) using intensity data from 3260 AD cases and 1290 age-matched controls from the genome-wide association study (GWAS) conducted by the Genetic and Environmental Risk for Alzheimer's disease Consortium (GERAD). We did not observe a significant excess of rare CNVs in cases, although we did identify duplications overlapping APP and CR1 which may be pathogenic. We looked for an excess of CNVs in loci which have been highlighted in previous AD CNV studies, but did not replicate previous findings. Through pathway analyses, we observed suggestive evidence for biological overlap between single nucleotide polymorphisms and CNVs in AD susceptibility. We also identified that our sample of elderly controls harbours significantly fewer deletions >1 Mb than younger control sets in previous CNV studies on schizophrenia and bipolar disorder (P = 8.9 × 10(-4) and 0.024, respectively), raising the possibility that healthy elderly individuals have a reduced rate of large deletions. Thus, in contrast to diseases such as schizophrenia, autism and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, CNVs do not appear to make a significant contribution to the development of AD.

  15. Exploration of risk factors contributing to the presence of influenza A virus in swine at agricultural fairs

    PubMed Central

    Bowman, Andrew S; Workman, Jeffrey D; Nolting, Jacqueline M; Nelson, Sarah W; Slemons, Richard D

    2014-01-01

    Influenza A virus infections occurring in exhibition swine populations at agricultural fairs during 2012 served as a source of H3N2 variant influenza A viruses transmitted to humans resulting in more than 300 documented cases. Prior to the outbreak, this investigation was initiated to identify fair-level risk factors contributing to influenza A virus infections in pigs at agricultural fairs. As part of an ongoing active surveillance program, nasal swabs and associated fair-level metadata were collected from pigs at 40 junior fair market swine shows held in Ohio during the 2012 fair season. Analyses of the data show that the adjusted odds of having influenza A virus-infected pigs at a fair were 1.27 (95% confidential interval (CI): 1.04–1.66) higher for every 20 pig increase in the size of the swine show. Additionally, four of the five fairs that hosted breeding swine shows in addition to their junior fair market swine shows had pigs test positive for influenza A virus. While the current study was limited to 40 fairs within one state, the findings provided insight for veterinary and public health officials developing mitigation strategies to decrease the intra- and inter-species transmission of influenza A virus at fairs. PMID:26038494

  16. Analytical testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flannelly, W. G.; Fabunmi, J. A.; Nagy, E. J.

    1981-01-01

    Analytical methods for combining flight acceleration and strain data with shake test mobility data to predict the effects of structural changes on flight vibrations and strains are presented. This integration of structural dynamic analysis with flight performance is referred to as analytical testing. The objective of this methodology is to analytically estimate the results of flight testing contemplated structural changes with minimum flying and change trials. The category of changes to the aircraft includes mass, stiffness, absorbers, isolators, and active suppressors. Examples of applying the analytical testing methodology using flight test and shake test data measured on an AH-1G helicopter are included. The techniques and procedures for vibration testing and modal analysis are also described.

  17. Evaluating local vegetation cover as a risk factor for malaria transmission: a new analytical approach using ImageJ

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background In places where malaria transmission is unstable or is transmitted under hypoendemic conditions, there are periods where limited foci of cases still occur and people become infected. These residual “hot spots” are likely reservoirs of the parasite population and so are fundamental to the seasonal spread and decline of malaria. It is, therefore, important to understand the ecological conditions that permit vector mosquitoes to survive and forage in these specific areas. Features such as local waterways and vegetation, as well as local ecology, particularly nocturnal temperature, humidity, and vegetative sustainability, are important for modeling local mosquito behavior. Vegetation around a homestead likely provides refuge for outdoor resting of these insects and may be a risk factor for malaria transmission. Analysis of this vegetation can be done using satellite information and mapping programs, such as Google Earth, but manual quantification is difficult and can be tedious and subjective. A more objective method is required. Methods Vegetation cover in the environment is reasonably static, particularly in and around homesteads. In order to evaluate and enumerate such information, ImageJ, an image processing software, was used to analyse Google Earth satellite imagery. The number of plants, total amount of vegetation around a homestead and its percentage of the total area were calculated and related to homesteads where cases of malaria were recorded. Results Preliminary results were obtained from a series of field trials carried out in South East Zambia in the Choma and Namwala districts from a base at the Macha District Hospital. Conclusions This technique is objective, clear and simple to manipulate and has potential application to determine the role that vegetation proximal to houses may play in affecting mosquito behaviour, foraging and subsequent malaria incidence. PMID:24620929

  18. Rare, Low-Frequency, and Common Variants in the Protein-Coding Sequence of Biological Candidate Genes from GWASs Contribute to Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Diogo, Dorothée; Kurreeman, Fina; Stahl, Eli A.; Liao, Katherine P.; Gupta, Namrata; Greenberg, Jeffrey D.; Rivas, Manuel A.; Hickey, Brendan; Flannick, Jason; Thomson, Brian; Guiducci, Candace; Ripke, Stephan; Adzhubey, Ivan; Barton, Anne; Kremer, Joel M.; Alfredsson, Lars; Sunyaev, Shamil; Martin, Javier; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Bowes, John; Eyre, Steve; Siminovitch, Katherine A.; Gregersen, Peter K.; Worthington, Jane; Klareskog, Lars; Padyukov, Leonid; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Plenge, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    The extent to which variants in the protein-coding sequence of genes contribute to risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is unknown. In this study, we addressed this issue by deep exon sequencing and large-scale genotyping of 25 biological candidate genes located within RA risk loci discovered by genome-wide association studies (GWASs). First, we assessed the contribution of rare coding variants in the 25 genes to the risk of RA in a pooled sequencing study of 500 RA cases and 650 controls of European ancestry. We observed an accumulation of rare nonsynonymous variants exclusive to RA cases in IL2RA and IL2RB (burden test: p = 0.007 and p = 0.018, respectively). Next, we assessed the aggregate contribution of low-frequency and common coding variants to the risk of RA by dense genotyping of the 25 gene loci in 10,609 RA cases and 35,605 controls. We observed a strong enrichment of coding variants with a nominal signal of association with RA (p < 0.05) after adjusting for the best signal of association at the loci (penrichment = 6.4 × 10−4). For one locus containing CD2, we found that a missense variant, rs699738 (c.798C>A [p.His266Gln]), and a noncoding variant, rs624988, reside on distinct haplotypes and independently contribute to the risk of RA (p = 4.6 × 10−6). Overall, our results indicate that variants (distributed across the allele-frequency spectrum) within the protein-coding portion of a subset of biological candidate genes identified by GWASs contribute to the risk of RA. Further, we have demonstrated that very large sample sizes will be required for comprehensively identifying the independent alleles contributing to the missing heritability of RA. PMID:23261300

  19. Life cycle management of analytical methods.

    PubMed

    Parr, Maria Kristina; Schmidt, Alexander H

    2017-06-17

    In modern process management, the life cycle concept gains more and more importance. It focusses on the total costs of the process from invest to operation and finally retirement. Also for analytical procedures an increasing interest for this concept exists in the recent years. The life cycle of an analytical method consists of design, development, validation (including instrumental qualification, continuous method performance verification and method transfer) and finally retirement of the method. It appears, that also regulatory bodies have increased their awareness on life cycle management for analytical methods. Thus, the International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH), as well as the United States Pharmacopeial Forum discuss the enrollment of new guidelines that include life cycle management of analytical methods. The US Pharmacopeia (USP) Validation and Verification expert panel already proposed a new General Chapter 〈1220〉 "The Analytical Procedure Lifecycle" for integration into USP. Furthermore, also in the non-regulated environment a growing interest on life cycle management is seen. Quality-by-design based method development results in increased method robustness. Thereby a decreased effort is needed for method performance verification, and post-approval changes as well as minimized risk of method related out-of-specification results. This strongly contributes to reduced costs of the method during its life cycle. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Potential contribution of the neurodegenerative disorders risk loci to cognitive performance in an elderly male gout population.

    PubMed

    Han, Lin; Jia, Zhaotong; Cao, Chunwei; Liu, Zhen; Liu, Fuqiang; Wang, Lin; Ren, Wei; Sun, Mingxia; Wang, Baoping; Li, Changgui; Chen, Li

    2017-09-01

    Cognitive impairment has been described in elderly subjects with high normal concentrations of serum uric acid. However, it remains unclear if gout confers an increased poorer cognition than those in individuals with asymptomatic hyperuricemia. The present study aimed at evaluating cognitive function in patients suffering from gout in an elderly male population, and further investigating the genetic contributions to the risk of cognitive function.This study examined the cognitive function as assessed by Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) in 205 male gout patients and 204 controls. The genetic basis of these cognitive measures was evaluated by genome-wide association study (GWAS) data in 102 male gout patients. Furthermore, 7 loci associated with cognition in GWAS were studied for correlation with gout in 1179 male gout patients and 1848 healthy male controls.Compared with controls, gout patients had significantly lower MoCA scores [22.78 ± 3.01 vs 23.42 ± 2.95, P = .023, adjusted by age, body mass index (BMI), education, and emotional disorder]. GWAS revealed 7 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associations with MoCA test at a level of conventional genome-wide significance (P < 9.6 × 10). The most significant association was observed between rs12895072 and rs12434554 within the KTN1 gene (Padjusted = 4.2 × 10, Padjusted = 4.7 × 10) at 14q22. The next best signal was in RELN gene (rs155333, Padjusted = 1.3 × 10) at 7q22, while the other variants at rs17458357 (Padjusted = 3.98 × 10), rs2572683 (Padjusted = 8.9 × 10), rs12555895 (Padjusted = 2.6 × 10), and rs3764030 (Padjusted = 9.4 × 10) were also statistically significant. The 7 SNPs were not associated with gout in further analysis (all P > .05).Elderly male subjects with gout exhibit accelerated decline in cognition performance. Several neurodegenerative disorders risk loci

  1. The contribution of FTO and UCP-1 SNPs to extreme obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular risk in Brazilian individuals

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Obesity has become a common human disorder associated with significant morbidity and mortality and adverse effects on quality of life. Sequence variants in two candidate genes, FTO and UCP-1, have been reported to be overrepresented in obese Caucasian population. The association of these genes polymorphisms with the obesity phenotype in a multiethnic group such as the Brazilian population has not been previously reported. Methods To assess the putative contribution of both FTO and UCP-1 to body mass index (BMI) and cardiovascular risk we genotyped SNPs rs9939609 (FTO) and rs6536991, rs22705565 and rs12502572 (UCP-1) from 126 morbidly obese subjects (BMI 42.9 ± 5.6 kg/m2, mean ± SE) and 113 normal-weight ethnically matched controls (BMI 22.6 ± 3.5 kg/m2, mean ± SE). Waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose and serum lipids were also measured. Each sample was also genotyped for 40 biallelic short insertion/deletion polymorphism (indels) for ethnic assignment and to estimate the proportion of European, African and Amerindian biogeographical ancestry in the Brazilian population. Results Cases did not differ from controls in the proportions of genomic ancestry. The FTO SNP rs9939609 and UCP-1 SNP rs6536991 were significantly associated with BMI (p= 0.04 and p<0.0001 respectively). An allele dose dependent tendency was observed for BMI for rs6536991 sample of controls. No other significant associations between any SNP and hypertension, hyperlipidemia and diabetes were noted after correction for BMI and no significant synergistic effect between FTO and UCP-1 SNPs with obesity were noted. There was not an association between rs9939609 (FTO) and rs6536991 (UCP-1) in with maximum weight loss after 1 year in 94 obese patients who underwent bariatric surgery. Conclusion Our data are consistent with FTO rs9939609 and UCP-1 rs6536991 common variants as contributors to obesity in the Brazilian population. PMID:23134754

  2. The contribution of FTO and UCP-1 SNPs to extreme obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular risk in Brazilian individuals.

    PubMed

    Ramos, Adauto V; Bastos-Rodrigues, Luciana; Resende, Bruna A; Friedman, Eitan; Campanha-Versiani, Luciana; Miranda, Debora M; Sarquis, Marta; De Marco, Luiz

    2012-11-07

    Obesity has become a common human disorder associated with significant morbidity and mortality and adverse effects on quality of life. Sequence variants in two candidate genes, FTO and UCP-1, have been reported to be overrepresented in obese Caucasian population. The association of these genes polymorphisms with the obesity phenotype in a multiethnic group such as the Brazilian population has not been previously reported. To assess the putative contribution of both FTO and UCP-1 to body mass index (BMI) and cardiovascular risk we genotyped SNPs rs9939609 (FTO) and rs6536991, rs22705565 and rs12502572 (UCP-1) from 126 morbidly obese subjects (BMI 42.9 ± 5.6 kg/m2, mean ± SE) and 113 normal-weight ethnically matched controls (BMI 22.6 ± 3.5 kg/m2, mean ± SE). Waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose and serum lipids were also measured. Each sample was also genotyped for 40 biallelic short insertion/deletion polymorphism (indels) for ethnic assignment and to estimate the proportion of European, African and Amerindian biogeographical ancestry in the Brazilian population. Cases did not differ from controls in the proportions of genomic ancestry. The FTO SNP rs9939609 and UCP-1 SNP rs6536991 were significantly associated with BMI (p= 0.04 and p<0.0001 respectively). An allele dose dependent tendency was observed for BMI for rs6536991 sample of controls. No other significant associations between any SNP and hypertension, hyperlipidemia and diabetes were noted after correction for BMI and no significant synergistic effect between FTO and UCP-1 SNPs with obesity were noted. There was not an association between rs9939609 (FTO) and rs6536991 (UCP-1) in with maximum weight loss after 1 year in 94 obese patients who underwent bariatric surgery. Our data are consistent with FTO rs9939609 and UCP-1 rs6536991 common variants as contributors to obesity in the Brazilian population.

  3. Analytical Microscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2006-06-01

    In the Analytical Microscopy group, within the National Center for Photovoltaic's Measurements and Characterization Division, we combine two complementary areas of analytical microscopy--electron microscopy and proximal-probe techniques--and use a variety of state-of-the-art imaging and analytical tools. We also design and build custom instrumentation and develop novel techniques that provide unique capabilities for studying materials and devices. In our work, we collaborate with you to solve materials- and device-related R&D problems. This sheet summarizes the uses and features of four major tools: transmission electron microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, the dual-beam focused-ion-beam workstation, and scanning probe microscopy.

  4. Contributions of maternal and paternal adiposity and smoking to adult offspring adiposity and cardiovascular risk: the Midspan Family Study.

    PubMed

    Han, T S; Hart, C L; Haig, C; Logue, J; Upton, M N; Watt, G C M; Lean, M E J

    2015-11-02

    Obesity has some genetic basis but requires interaction with environmental factors for phenotypic expression. We examined contributions of gender-specific parental adiposity and smoking to adiposity and related cardiovascular risk in adult offspring. Cross-sectional general population survey. Scotland. 1456 of the 1477 first generation families in the Midspan Family Study: 2912 parents (aged 45-64 years surveyed between 1972 and 1976) who had 1025 sons and 1283 daughters, aged 30-59 years surveyed in 1996. Offspring body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), cardiometabolic risk (lipids, blood pressure and glucose) and cardiovascular disease as outcome measures, and parental BMI and smoking as determinants. All analyses adjusted for age, socioeconomic status and family clustering and offspring birth weight. Regression coefficients for BMI associations between father-son (0.30) and mother-daughter (0.33) were greater than father-daughter (0.23) or mother-son (0.22). Regression coefficient for the non-genetic, shared-environment or assortative-mating relationship between BMIs of fathers and mothers was 0.19. Heritability estimates for BMI were greatest among women with mothers who had BMI either <25 or ≥30 kg/m(2). Compared with offspring without obese parents, offspring with two obese parents had adjusted OR of 10.25 (95% CI 6.56 to 13.93) for having WC ≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm women, 2.46 (95% CI 1.33 to 4.57) for metabolic syndrome and 3.03 (95% CI 1.55 to 5.91) for angina and/or myocardial infarct (p<0.001). Neither parental adiposity nor smoking history determined adjusted offspring individual cardiometabolic risk factors, diabetes or stroke. Maternal, but not paternal, smoking had significant effects on WC in sons (OR=1.50; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.01) and daughters (OR=1.42; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.84) and metabolic syndrome OR=1.68; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.40) in sons. There are modest genetic/epigenetic influences on the environmental factors behind adverse

  5. Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purpose of this project, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers, is to describe how IRIS is used by a small number of representative groups of u...

  6. Development of An Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used by Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final contractor report entitled, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers. This contractor report analyzed how ...

  7. Development of An Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used by Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final contractor report entitled, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers. This contractor report analyzed how ...

  8. Does a History of Trauma Contribute to HIV Risk for Women of Color? Implications for Prevention and Policy

    PubMed Central

    Wyatt, Gail E.; Myers, Hector F.; Williams, John K.; Kitchen, Christina Ramirez; Loeb, Tamra; Carmona, Jennifer Vargas; Wyatt, Lacey E.; Chin, Dorothy; Presley, Nicole

    2002-01-01

    Objectives. We investigated history of abuse and other HIV-related risk factors in a community sample of 490 HIV-positive and HIV-negative African American, European American, and Latina women. Methods. Baseline interviews were analyzed, and logistic regressions were used to identify predictors of risk for positive HIV serostatus overall and by racial/ethnic group. Results. Race/ethnicity was not an independent predictor of HIV-related risk, and few racial/ethnic differences in risk factors for HIV were seen. Regardless of race/ethnicity, HIV-positive women had more sexual partners, more sexually transmitted diseases, and more severe histories of abuse than did HIV-negative women. Trauma history was a general risk factor for women, irrespective of race/ethnicity. Conclusions. Limited material resources, exposure to violence, and high-risk sexual behaviors were the best predictors of HIV risk. PMID:11919068

  9. Modeling Multiple Risks During Infancy to Predict Quality of the Caregiving Environment: Contributions of a Person-Centered Approach

    PubMed Central

    Lanza, Stephanie T.; Rhoades, Brittany L.; Greenberg, Mark T.; Cox, Martha

    2011-01-01

    The primary goal of this study was to compare several variable-centered and person-centered methods for modeling multiple risk factors during infancy to predict the quality of caregiving environments at six months of age. Nine risk factors related to family demographics and maternal psychosocial risk, assessed when children were two months old, were explored in the understudied population of children born in low-income, non-urban communities in Pennsylvania and North Carolina (N = 1047). These risk factors were 1) single (unpartnered) parent status, 2) marital status, 3) mother’s age at first child birth, 4) maternal education, 5) maternal reading ability, 6) poverty status, 7) residential crowding, 8) prenatal smoking exposure, and 9) maternal depression. We compared conclusions drawn using a bivariate approach, multiple regression analysis, the cumulative risk index, and latent class analysis (LCA). The risk classes derived using LCA provided a more intuitive summary of how multiple risks were organized within individuals as compared to the other methods. The five risk classes were: married low-risk; married low-income; cohabiting multiproblem; single low-income; and single low-income/education. The LCA findings illustrated how the association between particular family configurations and the infants’ caregiving environment quality varied across race and site. Discussion focuses on the value of person-centered models of analysis to understand complexities of prediction of multiple risk factors. PMID:21477866

  10. Modeling multiple risks during infancy to predict quality of the caregiving environment: contributions of a person-centered approach.

    PubMed

    Lanza, Stephanie T; Rhoades, Brittany L; Greenberg, Mark T; Cox, Martha

    2011-06-01

    The primary goal of this study was to compare several variable-centered and person-centered methods for modeling multiple risk factors during infancy to predict the quality of caregiving environments at six months of age. Nine risk factors related to family demographics and maternal psychosocial risk, assessed when children were two months old, were explored in the understudied population of children born in low-income, non-urban communities in Pennsylvania and North Carolina (N = 1047). These risk factors were (1) single (unpartnered) parent status, (2) marital status, (3) mother's age at first child birth, (4) maternal education, (5) maternal reading ability, (6) poverty status, (7) residential crowding, (8) prenatal smoking exposure, and (9) maternal depression. We compared conclusions drawn using a bivariate approach, multiple regression analysis, the cumulative risk index, and latent class analysis (LCA). The risk classes derived using LCA provided a more intuitive summary of how multiple risks were organized within individuals as compared to the other methods. The five risk classes were: married low-risk; married low-income; cohabiting multiproblem; single low-income; and single low-income/education. The LCA findings illustrated how the association between particular family configurations and the infants' caregiving environment quality varied across race and site. Discussion focuses on the value of person-centered models of analysis to understand complexities of prediction of multiple risk factors.

  11. Predictions Burden of Diabetes and Economics Cost: Contributing Risk Factors of Changing Disease Prevalence and its Pandemic Impact to Qatar.

    PubMed

    Bener, A; Al-Hamaq, A O A A

    2016-09-01

    Background: The Middle East region is predicted to have one of the highest prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the world. The risk of diabetes continues to increase worldwide and its public health burden is unevenly distributed across socioeconomic strata. This burden is not only related to health care costs, but also to indirect costs caused by loss of productivity from disability and premature mortality. Aim: This study aims to estimate the economics cost of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus [T2DM] among adults in Qatar using national data, and to quantify the potential effect of a suggested preventive intervention program. Design: It is an observational cohort study. Setting: The survey was based on registry at the Hamad General Hospital and Primary Health Care (PHC) centers in the State of Qatar. Subject: This study consisted of patients above 25 years of age with diagnosed diabetes mellitus registered at Hamad General Hospital and Primary Health Care (PHC) centers during January 2004 to July 2014. Methods: We developed a dynamic model in which actual incidence, prevalence, and life expectancy data are used and alternative assumptions about future trends in these parameters can be incorporated. Linear regression model has been performed to forecast the burden of diabetes in oil-rich country. Results: According to the dynamic model, a 10% increased in the number of diabetic patients in the State of Qatar from 33 610 in 2005 to 122 000 in 2012 (about 1% annually). The annual diabetes incidence rate was higher in women than in men during a period between 2005 to 2015 years. The static model forecasted as 10% increase over 10 years. The relative increase in prevalence of diabetes and number of diabetic people are higher in women than in men (16.6%; 17.5% and 18.4% in men vs. 22.6%; 23.8% and 25.1% in women). Most of the increase in prevalence of diabetes is projected to occur in younger age groups where it is estimated to increase among age groups of 50-59 years and

  12. Contribution of DNA Double-strand Break Repair Gene XRCC3 Genotypes to Triple-negative Breast Cancer Risk.

    PubMed

    Su, Chen-Hsien; Chang, Wen-Shin; Hu, Pei-Shin; Hsiao, Chieh-Lun; Ji, Hong-Xue; Liao, Cheng-Hsi; Yueh, Te-Cheng; Chuang, Chin-Liang; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Hsu, Chin-Mu; Lane, Hsien-Yuan; Bau, Da-Tian

    2015-01-01

    The DNA-repair gene X-ray repair cross-complementing group 3 (XRCC3) is important in DNA double-strand break repair and plays a critical part in initiation of carcinogenesis. Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most difficult breast cancer subtype with no existing gene-targeting drugs and little knowledge on its genetic etiology. This study aimed to investigate the contribution of the XRCC3 genotype to individual TNBC susceptibility. A total of 2,464 Taiwan citizens consisting of 1,232 breast cancer cases and 1,232 controls were enrolled in this case-control study, and genotyping of XRCC3 rs1799794, rs45603942, rs861530, rs3212057, rs1799796, rs861539 and rs28903081 were performed with polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). We also conducted risk-stratified sub-group analyses to determine the association between the genotype and age- and hormone-related characteristics of breast cancer sub-groups. There was no significant difference between breast cancer and control groups in the distributions of the genotypic or allelic frequencies as for the XRCC3 rs1799794 (p=0.5195 and 0.9545), rs45603942 (p=0.3478 and 0.1449), rs861530 (p=0.4567 and 0.5081), rs3212057 (p=1.0000 and 1.0000), rs1799796 (p=0.8487 and 0.7315) and rs28903081 (p=1.0000 and 1.0000), respectively. However, the XRCC3 rs861539 TT genotype was more prevalent in patients with breast cancer [odds ratio (OR)=2.99, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.62-5.55; p=0.0002], and especially among those who were younger than 55 years (OR=2.61, 95% CI=1.82-3.73; p=0.0001), with first menarche earlier than 12.2 years (OR=2.47, 95% CI=1.74-3.52; p=0.0001), with menopause at 49.0 years old or later (OR=2.53, 95% CI=1.76-3.62; p=0.0001), or with TNBC (OR=2.05, 95% CI=1.46-4.28; p=4.63*10(-4)). XRCC3 rs861539 TT is a potential predictive marker for TNBC in Taiwanese women and investigations in other populations are warranted for further universal application in cancer detection

  13. The contribution of emotionality and self-regulation to the understanding of children's response to multiple risk.

    PubMed

    Lengua, Liliana J

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated the additive and interactive effects of multiple risk, emotionality, and self-regulation in predicting children's adjustment problems and positive adjustment using a community sample (N = 101) of children in third through fifth grades. Multiple measures of emotionality and self-regulation were used, including observational measures and mother and child report on questionnaires. Results indicated that questionnaire measures of emotionality and self-regulation predicted children's positive and negative adjustment over and above the effects of multiple risk, as well as resilience and vulnerability. Negative emotionality predicted adjustment problems, positive emotionality predicted positive adjustment, and self-regulation predicted both. In addition, observational measures of self-regulation moderated the association between multiple risk and adjustment such that children low in self-regulation were more vulnerable to multiple risk. The results suggest that emotionality and self-regulation operate as additional risk and protective factors in multiple-risk models.

  14. From a physicist's toy to an indispensable analytical tool in many fields of science: A personal view of the leading contribution of Ondrej Krivanek to the spectacular successes of EELS spectroscopy in the electron microscope.

    PubMed

    Colliex, Christian

    2017-09-01

    This contribution aims at reporting, from the subjective point of view of a witness based in Orsay, the fundamental role of Ondrej Krivanek in the spectacular emergence of EELS (Electron Energy-Loss Spectroscopy) as a key tool in analytical electron microscopy. In this regard, he has successively designed and built while he was at Gatan, serial EELS spectrometers, parallel EELS spectrometers and post-column energy filters which have been fitted to many different (S)TEM columns installed around the world. More recently the implementation of monochromators on the NION dedicated STEM together with the realization and performance of aberration correctors (which lie out of the scope of the present review), have placed the most advanced instrumental tool in the hands of continuously increasing populations of users in many domains of materials science and in life sciences. Furthermore, the impact of Ondrej Krivanek has spread widely beyond his technical achievements into that of a highly respected organizer of workshops, bringing together at regular intervals, all the experts from around the world and building up a real community of scientists. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Using Dynamic Walking Models to Identify Factors that Contribute to Increased Risk of Falling in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of

  16. Interdependency between Risk Assessments for Self and Other in the Field of Comparative Optimism: The Contribution of Response Times

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spitzenstetter, Florence; Schimchowitsch, Sarah

    2012-01-01

    By introducing a response-time measure in the field of comparative optimism, this study was designed to explore how people estimate risk to self and others depending on the evaluation order (self/other or other/self). Our results show the interdependency between self and other answers. Indeed, while response time for risk assessment for the self…

  17. Analytical sedimentology

    SciTech Connect

    Lewis, D.W. . Dept. of Geology); McConchie, D.M. . Centre for Coastal Management)

    1994-01-01

    Both a self instruction manual and a cookbook'' guide to field and laboratory analytical procedures, this book provides an essential reference for non-specialists. With a minimum of mathematics and virtually no theory, it introduces practitioners to easy, inexpensive options for sample collection and preparation, data acquisition, analytic protocols, result interpretation and verification techniques. This step-by-step guide considers the advantages and limitations of different procedures, discusses safety and troubleshooting, and explains support skills like mapping, photography and report writing. It also offers managers, off-site engineers and others using sediments data a quick course in commissioning studies and making the most of the reports. This manual will answer the growing needs of practitioners in the field, either alone or accompanied by Practical Sedimentology, which surveys the science of sedimentology and provides a basic overview of the principles behind the applications.

  18. Population inhalation exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and associated lung cancer risk in Beijing region: Contributions of indoor and outdoor sources and exposures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Bin; Zhao, Bin

    2012-12-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic air pollutants in China. Efforts in assessing population inhalation exposure to PAHs, and its contribution to lung cancer risk for Chinese residents, have been limited due to insufficient data on measured indoor concentrations. A mass-balance model to predict indoor PAH concentrations was developed, along with estimated exposures and attributable lung cancer risks for residents in the Beijing region in 2006, with a 2-stage Monte Carlo simulation framework. The exposures and risks were split into three parts, based on the sources and places of exposure, to estimate the contributions of indoor and outdoor PAH sources and exposures, in order to better understand the source and place pattern of PAH exposure. PAHs bring considerable lung cancer risk to the population of Beijing region. The population attributable fraction (PAF) of lung cancer for Beijing's overall population is 2.99% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.71%-4.26%]. Median contribution of indoor exposure to outdoor-originated PAHs (OUT-in) is 78% (CI: 73%-81%) in the overall population, for 97% (CI: 94%-99%) of whom OUT-in is the largest contributor. Rural residents are facing considerable exposure to indoor-originated PAHs (IN-in), which dominates the total exposure in 12% (CI: 2%-24%) of the rural population. This model framework could be used in quantitative comparison of different interventions on exposure to PAHs as well as other airborne pollutants.

  19. An axis for risk management in classificatory sys-tems as a contribution to efficient clinical practice

    PubMed Central

    MELLSOP, GRAHAM; KUMAR, SHAILESH

    2008-01-01

    Comprehensive clinical assessment and patient management plans have been enhanced by the development of multiaxial classificatory systems. Assessment of risk is an essential clinical task for which the conclusions are not currently reflected in the multiaxial diagnostic schemata. Developments in the understanding of risk and its management make possible consideration of its place in multiaxial systems. The structure and principles of a potentially workable axis, summarizing current knowledge of risk in the domains of suicide, self-neglect and violence to others, are described. Clinicians are more likely to use this axis than the multiple, emerging, risk assessment guidelines. Incorporating risk management would be a practical addition to presently available axes and be very widely clinically applicable. PMID:18836545

  20. Contribution of exposure, risk of crash and fatality to explain age- and sex-related differences in traffic-related cyclist mortality rates.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Ruiz, Virginia; Jiménez-Mejías, Eladio; Amezcua-Prieto, Carmen; Olmedo-Requena, Rocío; Luna-del-Castillo, Juan de Dios; Lardelli-Claret, Pablo

    2015-03-01

    This study was designed to quantify the percent contribution of exposure, risk of collision and fatality rate to the association of age and sex with the mortality rates among cyclists in Spain, and to track the changes in these contributions with time. Data were analyzed for 50,042 cyclists involved in road crashes in Spain from 1993 to 2011, and also for a subset of 13,119 non-infractor cyclists involved in collisions with a vehicle whose driver committed an infraction (used as a proxy sample of all cyclists on the road). We used decomposition and quasi-induced exposure methods to obtain the percent contributions of these three components to the mortality rate ratios for each age and sex group compared to males aged 25-34 years. Death rates increased with age, and the main component of this increase was fatality (around 70%). Among younger cyclists, however, the main component of increased death rates was risk of a collision. Males had higher death rates than females in every age group: this rate increased from 6.4 in the 5-14 year old group to 18.8 in the 65-79 year old group. Exposure, the main component of this increase, ranged between 70% and 90% in all age categories, although the fatality component also contributed to this increase. The contributions of exposure, risk of crash and fatality to cyclist death rates were strongly associated with age and sex. Young male cyclists were a high-risk group because all three components tended to increase their mortality rate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Sympathovagal Imbalance Contributes to Prehypertension Status and Cardiovascular Risks Attributed by Insulin Resistance, Inflammation, Dyslipidemia and Oxidative Stress in First Degree Relatives of Type 2 Diabetics

    PubMed Central

    Pal, Gopal Krushna; Adithan, Chandrasekaran; Ananthanarayanan, Palghat Hariharan; Pal, Pravati; Nanda, Nivedita; Durgadevi, Thiyagarajan; Lalitha, Venugopal; Syamsunder, Avupati Naga; Dutta, Tarun Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Background Though cardiovascular (CV) risks are reported in first-degree relatives (FDR) of type 2 diabetics, the pathophysiological mechanisms contributing to these risks are not known. We investigated the association of sympathovagal imbalance (SVI) with CV risks in these subjects. Subjects and Methods Body mass index (BMI), basal heart rate (BHR), blood pressure (BP), rate-pressure product (RPP), spectral indices of heart rate variability (HRV), autonomic function tests, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipid profile, inflammatory markers, oxidative stress (OS) marker, rennin, thyroid profile and serum electrolytes were measured and analyzed in subjects of study group (FDR of type 2 diabetics, n = 72) and control group (subjects with no family history of diabetes, n = 104). Results BMI, BP, BHR, HOMA-IR, lipid profile, inflammatory and OS markers, renin, LF-HF (ratio of low-frequency to high-frequency power of HRV, a sensitive marker of SVI) were significantly increased (p<0.0001) in study group compared to the control group. SVI in study group was due to concomitant sympathetic activation and vagal inhibition. There was significant correlation and independent contribution of markers of insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, inflammation and OS to LF-HF ratio. Multiple-regression analysis demonstrated an independent contribution of LF-HF ratio to prehypertension status (standardized beta 0.415, p<0.001) and bivariate logistic-regression showed significant prediction (OR 2.40, CI 1.128–5.326, p = 0.002) of LF-HF ratio of HRV to increased RPP, the marker of CV risk, in study group. Conclusion SVI in FDR of type 2 diabetics occurs due to sympathetic activation and vagal withdrawal. The SVI contributes to prehypertension status and CV risks caused by insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, inflammation and oxidative stress in FDR of type 2 diabetics. PMID:24265679

  2. Sympathovagal imbalance contributes to prehypertension status and cardiovascular risks attributed by insulin resistance, inflammation, dyslipidemia and oxidative stress in first degree relatives of type 2 diabetics.

    PubMed

    Pal, Gopal Krushna; Adithan, Chandrasekaran; Ananthanarayanan, Palghat Hariharan; Pal, Pravati; Nanda, Nivedita; Durgadevi, Thiyagarajan; Lalitha, Venugopal; Syamsunder, Avupati Naga; Dutta, Tarun Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Though cardiovascular (CV) risks are reported in first-degree relatives (FDR) of type 2 diabetics, the pathophysiological mechanisms contributing to these risks are not known. We investigated the association of sympathovagal imbalance (SVI) with CV risks in these subjects. Body mass index (BMI), basal heart rate (BHR), blood pressure (BP), rate-pressure product (RPP), spectral indices of heart rate variability (HRV), autonomic function tests, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipid profile, inflammatory markers, oxidative stress (OS) marker, rennin, thyroid profile and serum electrolytes were measured and analyzed in subjects of study group (FDR of type 2 diabetics, n = 72) and control group (subjects with no family history of diabetes, n = 104). BMI, BP, BHR, HOMA-IR, lipid profile, inflammatory and OS markers, renin, LF-HF (ratio of low-frequency to high-frequency power of HRV, a sensitive marker of SVI) were significantly increased (p<0.0001) in study group compared to the control group. SVI in study group was due to concomitant sympathetic activation and vagal inhibition. There was significant correlation and independent contribution of markers of insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, inflammation and OS to LF-HF ratio. Multiple-regression analysis demonstrated an independent contribution of LF-HF ratio to prehypertension status (standardized beta 0.415, p<0.001) and bivariate logistic-regression showed significant prediction (OR 2.40, CI 1.128-5.326, p = 0.002) of LF-HF ratio of HRV to increased RPP, the marker of CV risk, in study group. SVI in FDR of type 2 diabetics occurs due to sympathetic activation and vagal withdrawal. The SVI contributes to prehypertension status and CV risks caused by insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, inflammation and oxidative stress in FDR of type 2 diabetics.

  3. Dietary patterns are associated with incident stroke and contribute to excess risk of stroke in Black Americans

    PubMed Central

    Judd, Suzanne E; Gutiérrez, Orlando M.; Newby, PK; Howard, George; Howard, Virginia J; Locher, Julie L; Kissela, Brett M; Shikany, James M

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Black Americans and residents of the Southeastern United States, are at increased risk of stroke. Diet is one of many potential factors proposed that might explain these racial and regional disparities. Methods Between 2003–2007, the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study enrolled 30,239 black and white Americans aged 45 years or older. Dietary patterns were derived using factor analysis and foods from food frequency data. Incident strokes were adjudicated using medical records by a team of physicians. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine risk of stroke. Results Over 5.7 years, 490 incident strokes were observed. In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, greater adherence to the Plant-based pattern was associated with lower stroke risk (HR=0.71; 95% CI=0.56–0.91; ptrend=0.005). This association was attenuated after addition of income, education, total energy intake, smoking, and sedentary behavior. Participants with a higher adherence to the Southern pattern experienced a 39% increased risk of stroke (HR=1.39; 95% CI=1.05, 1.84), with a significant (p = 0.009) trend across quartiles. Including Southern pattern in the model mediated the black-white risk of stroke by 63%. Conclusions These data suggest that adherence to a Southern style diet may increase the risk of stroke while adherence to a more plant-based diet may reduce stroke risk. Given the consistency of finding a dietary impact on stroke risk across studies, discussing nutrition patterns during risk screening may be an important step in reducing stroke. PMID:24159061

  4. Dissociable contribution of nucleus accumbens and dorsolateral striatum to the acquisition of risk choice behavior in the rat.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jen-Hau; Liao, Ruey-Ming

    2015-12-01

    While a growing body of research has suggested that the mesocorticolimbic dopamine systems play a key role in decision making under risk, how the nucleus accumbens (NAC) is involved in the acquisition of risk choice behavior remains unclear. This study used a T-maze task to assess risk-based decision making in which the rat was required to assess the risk by choosing to enter either a small and certain reward arm or a large but uncertain reward arm of the maze. The latter option, when chosen, resulted in provision of 2, 4, or 8 sweeten pellets with a probability (p) of 0.5, 0.25, or 0.125, respectively. Thus the latter arm provided three different conditions of reward ratio, compared to the choice of former arm, which always provided 1 pellet with p=1. This risk choice task was then run with the expected value being equality between the binary choice options. The experimental rats first received an excitoneurotoxic lesion affecting either the NAC or the dorsolateral striatum (DLS) and this was followed by post-lesion behavioral examination. The sham lesion control rats acquired a stable risk choice with regard to each reward ratio over a 10-day test. The pattern of choice behavior appeared in risk-seeking when p=0.5 to obtain 2 pellets, and was risk-averse when larger reward resulted in lower p. The NAC lesion significantly disrupted the acquisition of the aforementioned risk choice behavior and apparently shifted the choice into a risk-averse style for all three reward ratios. No such effect was observed in the rats with DLS lesions. Neither the gross motor action nor the discrimination of different reward magnitudes was impaired by the lesions affecting either the NAC or DLS as assessed by an additional experiment. These findings suggest that firstly there is heterogeneity between NAC and DLS with respect to risk-based decision making, and that secondly the NAC is involved and critical to the acquisition of behavioral choice under risk, specially when the

  5. The contribution of reproductive factors and family history towards premenopausal breast cancer risk in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Razif, S Mohd; Sulaiman, S; Hanie, S Soraya; Aina, E Nor; Rohaizak, M; Fuad, I; Nurismah, M I; Sharifah, N A

    2011-08-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. This study aimed to determine the reproductive for premenopausal breast cancer risk in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A case-control study was conducted in 216 histopathologically confirmed cases of premenopausal breast cancer and 216 community-based controls that were matched by age within a 5-year period and ethnicity. The results of this study showed that premenopausal breast cancer risks were strongly related to parity, number of live births and family history of breast cancer. Premenopausal women with these known reproductive and family history risk factors should take extra measures to undergo appropriate screening method for early detection of breast cancer.

  6. Vegetarianism and colorectal cancer risk in a low-selenium environment: effect modification by selenium status? A possible factor contributing to the null results in British vegetarians.

    PubMed

    Sobiecki, Jakub G

    2017-08-01

    Despite the consistent findings of lower total cancer incidence in vegetarians than in meat-eaters in the UK, the results of studies of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in British vegetarians have largely been null. This was in contrast to the hypothesis of a decreased risk of CRC in this population due to null intake of red and processed meats and increased intake of fibre. Although the data are inconsistent, it has been suggested that selenium (Se) status may influence CRC risk. A literature review was performed of studies on CRC risk in vegetarians, Se intakes and status in vegetarians, and changes of Se intakes and status in the UK throughout the follow-up periods of studies on CRC risk in British vegetarians. Vegetarians in the UK and other low-Se areas were found to have low Se intakes and status compared to non-vegetarians. There was some evidence of a reverse J-shaped curve of Se intakes and status in the UK throughout the last three decades. These presumed patterns were followed by the changes in CRC mortality or incidence in British vegetarians during this period. Available data on Se intake and status in British vegetarians, as well as the relationship between their secular changes in the UK and changes in CRC risk in this dietary group, are compatible with the hypothesis that low Se status may contribute to the largely null results of studies of CRC risk in vegetarians in the UK.

  7. Contribution of Genetic Background and Clinical Risk Factors to Low-Trauma Fractures in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive Persons: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Junier, Thomas; Rotger, Margalida; Biver, Emmanuel; Ledergerber, Bruno; Barceló, Catalina; Bartha, Istvan; Kovari, Helen; Schmid, Patrick; Fux, Christoph; Bernasconi, Enos; Brun Del Re, Claudia; Weber, Rainer; Fellay, Jacques; Tarr, Philip E

    2016-04-01

    Background.  The impact of human genetic background on low-trauma fracture (LTF) risk has not been evaluated in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and clinical LTF risk factors. Methods.  In the general population, 6 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associate with LTF through genome-wide association study. Using genome-wide SNP arrays and imputation, we genotyped these SNPs in HIV-positive, white Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We included 103 individuals with a first, physician-validated LTF and 206 controls matched on gender, whose duration of observation and whose antiretroviral therapy start dates were similar using incidence density sampling. Analyses of nongenetic LTF risk factors were based on 158 cases and 788 controls. Results.  A genetic risk score built from the 6 LTF-associated SNPs did not associate with LTF risk, in both models including and not including parental hip fracture history. The contribution of clinical LTF risk factors was limited in our dataset. Conclusions.  Genetic LTF markers with a modest effect size in the general population do not improve fracture prediction in persons with HIV, in whom clinical LTF risk factors are prevalent in both cases and controls.

  8. Contribution of Genetic Background and Clinical Risk Factors to Low-Trauma Fractures in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive Persons: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Junier, Thomas; Rotger, Margalida; Biver, Emmanuel; Ledergerber, Bruno; Barceló, Catalina; Bartha, Istvan; Kovari, Helen; Schmid, Patrick; Fux, Christoph; Bernasconi, Enos; Brun del Re, Claudia; Weber, Rainer; Fellay, Jacques; Tarr, Philip E.

    2016-01-01

    Background. The impact of human genetic background on low-trauma fracture (LTF) risk has not been evaluated in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and clinical LTF risk factors. Methods. In the general population, 6 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associate with LTF through genome-wide association study. Using genome-wide SNP arrays and imputation, we genotyped these SNPs in HIV-positive, white Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We included 103 individuals with a first, physician-validated LTF and 206 controls matched on gender, whose duration of observation and whose antiretroviral therapy start dates were similar using incidence density sampling. Analyses of nongenetic LTF risk factors were based on 158 cases and 788 controls. Results. A genetic risk score built from the 6 LTF-associated SNPs did not associate with LTF risk, in both models including and not including parental hip fracture history. The contribution of clinical LTF risk factors was limited in our dataset. Conclusions. Genetic LTF markers with a modest effect size in the general population do not improve fracture prediction in persons with HIV, in whom clinical LTF risk factors are prevalent in both cases and controls. PMID:27419173

  9. Contribution for tier 1 of the ecological risk assessment of Cunha Baixa uranium mine (Central Portugal): I soil chemical characterization.

    PubMed

    Pereira, R; Antunes, S C; Marques, S M; Gonçalves, F

    2008-02-15

    Within the tier 1 of a site specific risk assessment, the pseudo-total concentrations (extracted with aqua regia) and the potential mobile fractions of metals were determined to perform a preliminary evaluation of risks posed by contaminated soils from an abandoned uranium mine (Mangualde, Central Portugal). Considering the mobile fractions of metals, extracted with artificial rain water, aluminium and uranium were the most concerning elements, since their concentrations were above soil quality criteria values (SQGVs) established for both elements. However, according to the evaluation based on potential mobile fractions of elements, rather than on pseudo-total metal concentrations the risks were limited to sites within the exploitation area, where contamination derives mainly from past in-situ leaching activities of pore ore as well as from the deposition of sludge from the effluent pond. The exclusion of other sites under evaluation, from the risk assessment process, requires additional data provided by soil screening ecotoxicological assays.

  10. Genetic and environmental contributions to alcohol dependence risk in a national twin sample: consistency of findings in women and men.

    PubMed

    Heath, A C; Bucholz, K K; Madden, P A; Dinwiddie, S H; Slutske, W S; Bierut, L J; Statham, D J; Dunne, M P; Whitfield, J B; Martin, N G

    1997-11-01

    Genetic influences on alcoholism risk are well-documented in men, but uncertain in women. We tested for gender differences in genetic influences on, and risk-factors for, DSM-III-R alcohol dependence (AD). Diagnostic follow-up interviews were conducted in 1992-3 by telephone with twins from an Australian twin panel first surveyed in 1980-82 (N = 5889 respondents). Data were analysed using logistic regression models. Significantly higher twin pair concordances were observed in MZ compared to DZ same-sex twin pairs in women and men, even when data were weighted to adjust for over-representation of well-educated respondents, and for selective attrition. AD risk was increased in younger birth cohorts, in Catholic males or women reporting no religious affiliation, in those reporting a history of conduct disorder or major depression and in those with high Neuroticism, Social Non-conformity, Toughmindedness, Novelty-Seeking or (in women only) Extraversion scores; and decreased in 'Other Protestants', weekly church attenders, and university-educated males. Controlling for these variables, however, did not remove the significant association with having an alcoholic MZ co-twin, implying that much of the genetic influence on AD risk remained unexplained. No significant gender difference in the genetic variance in AD was found (64% heritability, 95% confidence interval 32-73%). Genetic risk-factors play as important a role in determining AD risk in women as in men. With the exception of certain sociocultural variables such as religious affiliation, the same personality, sociodemographic and axis I correlates of alcoholism risk are observed in women and men.

  11. Contribution of in vivo structural measurements and load/strength ratios to the determination of forearm fracture risk in postmenopausal women.

    PubMed

    Melton, L Joseph; Riggs, B Lawrence; van Lenthe, G Harry; Achenbach, Sara J; Müller, Ralph; Bouxsein, Mary L; Amin, Shreyasee; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Khosla, Sundeep

    2007-09-01

    Bone structure, strength and load-strength ratios contribute to forearm fracture risk independently of areal BMD. Technological and conceptual advances provide new opportunities for evaluating the contribution of bone density, structure, and strength to the pathogenesis of distal forearm fractures. From an age-sratified random sample of Rochester, MN, women, we compared 18 with a distal forearm fracture (cases) to 18 age-matched women with no osteoporotic fracture (controls). High-resolution pQCT was used to assess volumetric BMD (vBMD), geometry, and microstructure at the ultradistal radius, the site of Colles' fractures. Failure loads in the radius were estimated from microfinite element (microFE) models derived from pQCT. Differences between case and control women were assessed, and the risk of fracture associated with each variable was estimated by logistic regression analysis. Given similar heights, estimated loading in a fall on the outstretched arm was the same in cases and control. However, women with forearm fractures had inferior vBMD, geometry, microstructure, and estimated bone strength. Relative risks for the strongest determinant of fracture in each of the five main variable categories were as follows: BMD (total vBMD: OR per SD change, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.4-12), geometry (cortical thickness: OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.4-11), microstructure (trabecular number: OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.02-5.1), and strength (axial rigidity: OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.4-10); the factor-of-risk (fall load/microFE failure load) was 24 % greater (worse) in cases (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.2-7.5). Areas under ROC curves ranged from 0.72 to 0.82 for these parameters. Bone geometry, microstructure, and strength contribute to forearm fractures, as does BMD, and these additional determinants of risk promise greater insights into fracture pathogenesis.

  12. A combination of genetic, molecular and haemodynamic risk factors contributes to the formation, enlargement and rupture of brain aneurysms.

    PubMed

    Francis, Sheila E; Tu, Jian; Qian, Yi; Avolio, Alberto P

    2013-07-01

    Many people carry cerebral aneurysms but are generally unaware of their presence until they rupture, resulting in high morbidity or mortality. The pathogenesis and aetiology of aneurysms are largely unknown; however, a greater understanding, by analysing the genetic, molecular and haemodynamic risk factors involved in the initiation, enlargement, and rupture of aneurysms, could lead to effective prevention, early diagnosis and more effective treatment. The risk of aneurysm is increased by a family history of aneurysms, and amongst certain populations, namely in Japan and Finland. Several other risk factors are documented, including hypertension, smoking, alcohol consumption, and female sex. Studies indicate a higher occurrence of cerebral aneurysms in females compared to males. Oestrogen protects several components within the artery wall, and inhibits some of the inflammatory molecules that could cause aneurysms. At menopause, the oestrogen level decreases and the incidence of aneurysm increases. Haemodynamic stresses have been shown to be involved in the formation, growth and rupture of aneurysms. This is often associated with hypertension, which also increases the risk of aneurysm rupture. When an unruptured aneurysm is detected the decision to treat can be complicated, since only 1-2% of aneurysms eventually rupture. Haemodynamic simulation software offers an effective tool for the consideration of treatment options for patients who carry unruptured aneurysms. The assessment must consider the risks of interventional treatments versus non-interventional management options, such as controlling blood pressure.

  13. Not all DTC patients with N positive disease deserve the attribution "high risk". Contribution of the MSDS trial.

    PubMed

    Vrachimis, Alexis; Wenning, Christian; Gerß, Joachim; Dralle, Henning; Vaez Tabassi, Mohammad; Schober, Otmar; Riemann, Burkhard

    2015-07-01

    To investigate if patients with thyroid carcinoma having N1a disease are at the same risk with N1b using the collective of the well-defined European prospective Multicentre Study Differentiated Thyroid Cancer (MSDS). Overall (OS) and event free survival (EFS) were calculated. Cox multivariable regression analysis was performed in order to calculate Hazard ratios (HR). EFS was significantly decreased only in patients with N1b metastasis as compared to N0 patients and became worse when N1a was concomitantly affected. A superior survival in favor of N1a patients as compared to N1b patients with regard to EFS was also observed. The patients having N1a disease showed no differences in the EFS as compared to N0. OS did not differ significantly in any of the groups. There was an increased HR for events with regards to histology, T-stage, tumor size, UICC stage and cervical lymph node metastasis. Tumor size showed a significantly increased risk for OS. Patients with pT3b and pT4a tumors with N1b are of higher risk for relapse, albeit not affecting overall survival. Patients with N1a are of no higher risk. The risk stratification of these patients may be adapted accordingly. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. A probabilistic assessment of the contribution of wastewater-irrigated lettuce to Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection risk and disease burden in Kumasi, Ghana.

    PubMed

    Seidu, Razak; Abubakari, Amina; Dennis, Isaac Amoah; Heistad, Arve; Stenstrom, Thor Axel; Larbi, John A; Abaidoo, Robert C

    2015-03-01

    Wastewater use for vegetable production is widespread across the cities of many developing countries. Studies on the microbial health risks associated with the practice have largely depended on faecal indicator organisms with potential underestimation or overestimation of the microbial health risks and disease burdens. This study assessed the Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection risk and diarrhoeal disease burden measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with the consumption of wastewater-irrigated lettuce in Kumasi, Ghana using data on E. coli O157:H7 in ready-to-harvest, wastewater-irrigated lettuce. Two exposure scenarios - best case and worst case - associated with a single consumption of wastewater-irrigated lettuce were assessed. The assessment revealed wastewater-irrigated lettuce is contributing to the transmission of E. coli O157:H7 in Kumasi, Ghana. The mean E. coli O157:H7 infection risk and DALYs in the wet and dry seasons, irrespective of the exposure scenario, were above the World Health Organization tolerable daily infection risk of 2.7 × 10⁻⁷ per person per day and 10⁻⁶ DALYs per person per year. It is recommended that legislation with clear monitoring indicators and penalties is implemented to ensure that farmers and food sellers fully implement risk mitigating measures.

  15. What factors contribute to the risk of depression in epilepsy?--Tasmanian Epilepsy Register Mood Study (TERMS).

    PubMed

    Lacey, Cameron J; Salzberg, Michael R; D'Souza, Wendyl J

    2016-03-01

    To model the factors associated with depression in a community sample of people with epilepsy. The factors investigated were derived from proposed risk factors for depression from patients with epilepsy, other chronic illness, and the general population. Multivariate analysis using general linear regression models of factors associated with depression in the Tasmanian Epilepsy Register Mood Study (TERMS), a cross-sectional community sample of 440 patients with epilepsy. A model with acceptable fit was created that explained 66% of the variance of depression. Associated factors included in this model were neuroticism, physical functioning, social support, past history of depression, and stressful life events. In this cross-sectional study designed specifically to investigate depression in epilepsy, we showed that general risk factors for depression in other illness and in the general population are also important in patients with epilepsy, with little support for disease-related risk factors. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International League Against Epilepsy.

  16. The CYP1B1 Leu432Val polymorphism contributes to lung cancer risk: evidence from 6501 subjects.

    PubMed

    Chen, Bo; Qiu, Li-Xin; Li, Yan; Xu, Wei; Wang, Xue-Li; Zhao, Wei-Hong; Wu, Jian-Qing

    2010-12-01

    The polymorphism of cytochrome P4501B1 (CYP1B1) codon 432 (rs1056836, CYP1B1*3, or Leu432Val) is thought to have a significant effect on lung cancer risk, but the results are inconsistent. In this meta-analysis, we assessed 9 published studies involving 6501 subjects that investigated the association between the CYP1B1 codon 432 polymorphism and risk of lung cancer. Overall, the CYP1B1 Leu/Val and Val/Val-variant genotypes were associated with a significantly increased risk of lung cancer in different genetic models (heterozygote comparison: OR=1.22; 95% CI=1.02-1.45, P(heterogeneity)=0.068; homozygote comparison: OR=1.41; 95% CI=1.08-1.85, P(heterogeneity)=0.071; dominant model comparison: OR=1.26; 95% CI=1.04-1.51, P(heterogeneity)=0.019; and recessive model comparison: OR=1.17; 95% CI=1.02-1.34, P(heterogeneity)=0.429). In the stratified analysis by ethnicity, significantly increased risks were found among Caucasians for Leu/Val vs Leu/Leu (OR=1.30; 95% CI=1.03-1.64; P(heterogeneity)=0.092), and dominant model (OR=1.35; 95% CI=1.03-1.77; P(heterogeneity)=0.015). However, no significant associations were found in both Europeans and African-Americans for all genetic models. In the subgroup analyses by smoking status, a significantly increased risk of lung cancer was found among smokers (dominant model: OR=1.46; 95% CI=1.08-1.83; P(heterogeneity)=0.175). However, we did not find any statistically significant association by subgroup analyses of pathological type. This meta-analysis suggests that the CYP1B1 Val allele is a low-penetrant risk factor for developing lung cancer.

  17. The contribution of educational class in improving accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction across European regions: The MORGAM Project Cohort Component.

    PubMed

    Ferrario, Marco M; Veronesi, Giovanni; Chambless, Lloyd E; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Salomaa, Veikko; Borglykke, Anders; Hart, Nigel; Söderberg, Stefan; Cesana, Giancarlo

    2014-08-01

    To assess whether educational class, an index of socioeconomic position, improves the accuracy of the SCORE cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. In a pooled analysis of 68 455 40-64-year-old men and women, free from coronary heart disease at baseline, from 47 prospective population-based cohorts from Nordic countries (Finland, Denmark, Sweden), the UK (Northern Ireland, Scotland), Central Europe (France, Germany, Italy) and Eastern Europe (Lithuania, Poland) and Russia, we assessed improvements in discrimination and in risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI)) when education was added to models including the SCORE risk equation. The lowest educational class was associated with higher CVD mortality in men (pooled age-adjusted HR=1.64, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.90) and women (HR=1.31, 1.02 to 1.68). In men, the HRs ranged from 1.3 (Central Europe) to 2.1 (Eastern Europe and Russia). After adjustment for the SCORE risk, the association remained statistically significant overall, in the UK and Eastern Europe and Russia. Education significantly improved discrimination in all European regions and classification in Nordic countries (clinical NRI=5.3%) and in Eastern Europe and Russia (NRI=24.7%). In women, after SCORE risk adjustment, the association was not statistically significant, but the reduced number of deaths plays a major role, and the addition of education led to improvements in discrimination and classification in the Nordic countries only. We recommend the inclusion of education in SCORE CVD risk equation in men, particularly in Nordic and East European countries, to improve social equity in primary prevention. Weaker evidence for women warrants the need for further investigations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  18. Social network drinking and family history contribute equally to first-onset alcohol dependence in high risk adults.

    PubMed

    McCutcheon, Vivia V; Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N; Steinley, Douglas; Bucholz, Kathleen K

    2014-08-01

    Adult alcohol consumption is influenced by peer consumption, but whether peer drinking is associated with first-onset alcohol dependence (AD) in adults after age 30 is unknown. 703 adult participants in the St. Louis Epidemiologic Catchment Area Survey (ECA) with no prior history of AD, but with high risk based on previously reported drinking or family history, were re-interviewed 11 years after the last ECA assessment to detect new cases of AD (age at follow-up: M(S.D.)=42.9 (8.2)). Incident AD during the assessment interval was examined in relation to drinking patterns in the social network and history of alcohol problems in parents. Fifteen percent of the sample had a first-onset of AD; another 19.5% never developed AD but were high-risk drinkers at follow-up. Of those who developed AD, 32.1% were remitted and 67.9% were unremitted (current AD) or unstably remitted (asymptomatic high-risk drinkers). Compared to abstinent or low-risk drinkers who did not develop AD, high-risk drinkers with no AD and unremitted/unstably remitted individuals were 4 times as likely to report moderate drinkers in their networks and remitted individuals were nearly 3 times as likely to report network members in recovery from alcohol problems. Associations of social network drinking with remitted and current AD were similar in strength to those of parental alcohol problems. Social network drinking patterns are associated with high-risk drinking and with the development of incident AD in adults, with effects equal to that of alcohol problems in both parents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Does low diastolic blood pressure contribute to the risk of recurrent hypertensive cardiovascular disease events? The Framingham Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Stanley S; Gokhale, Sohum S; Chow, Vincent H; Larson, Martin G; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Mitchell, Gary F; Wong, Nathan D

    2015-02-01

    Whether low diastolic blood pressure (DBP) is a risk factor for recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in persons with isolated systolic hypertension is controversial. We studied 791 individuals (mean age 75 years, 47% female, mean follow-up time: 8±6 years) with DBP <70 (n=225) versus 70 to 89 mm Hg (n=566) after initial CVD events in the original and offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study. Recurrent CVD events occurred in 153 (68%) participants with lower DBP and 271 (48%) with higher DBP (P<0.0001). Risk of recurrent CVD events in risk factor-adjusted Cox regression was higher in those with DBP <70 mm Hg versus DBP 70 to 89 mm Hg in both treated (hazard ratio, 5.1 [95% confidence interval: 3.8-6.9] P<0.0001) and untreated individuals (hazard ratio, 11.7 [95% confidence interval: 6.5-21.1] P<0.0001; treatment interaction: P=0.71). Individually, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke recurrent events were more likely with DBP <70 mm Hg versus 70 to 89 mm Hg (P<0.0001). To examine for an effect of wide pulse pressure on excess risk associated with low DBP, we defined 4 binary groupings of pulse pressure (≥68 versus <68 mm Hg) and DBP (<70 versus 70-89 mm Hg). CVD incidence rates were higher only in the group with pulse pressure ≥68 and DBP <70 mm Hg (76% versus 46%-54%; P<0.001). Persons with isolated systolic hypertension and prior CVD events have increased risk for recurrent CVD events in the presence of DBP <70 mm Hg versus DBP 70 to 89 mm Hg, whether treated or untreated, supporting wide pulse pressure as an important risk modifier for the adverse effect of low DBP.

  20. Risk in Schooling: The Contribution of Qualitative Research to Our Understanding of the Overrepresentation of Minorities in Special Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harry, Beth; Fenton, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    This article reviews 15 qualitative studies examining factors contributing to the overrepresentation of minorities in special education. Eleven studies constituted numerical surveys of practitioner perspectives, with additional questions that were analyzed qualitatively. Four studies relied on face-to-face interviews or qualitative surveys,…

  1. Risk in Schooling: The Contribution of Qualitative Research to Our Understanding of the Overrepresentation of Minorities in Special Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harry, Beth; Fenton, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    This article reviews 15 qualitative studies examining factors contributing to the overrepresentation of minorities in special education. Eleven studies constituted numerical surveys of practitioner perspectives, with additional questions that were analyzed qualitatively. Four studies relied on face-to-face interviews or qualitative surveys,…

  2. Are safety data sheets for cleaning products used in Norway a factor contributing to the risk of workers exposure to chemicals?

    PubMed

    Suleiman, Abdulqadir M; Svendsen, Kristin V H

    2014-10-01

    Cleaning products are considered less hazardous than those used in other sectors. Suppliers and distributors are less conscientious when it comes to informing users on health risks. The aim of the study was to elaborate on the usefulness and clarity of information in the safety data sheets (SDS) for cleaning products, and considering if the use of these SDSs can be seen as a risk factor towards occupational exposure to hazardous chemicals in the sector. Safety data sheets were selected based on the risk level of the product assigned in an industrial sector scheme. 320 SDSs for cleaning products were reviewed. Constituent components found in the products over a given threshold were listed and available information thereof used to assess the perceived non-hazard consideration of the chemicals. The contents of the SDSs was generic and mostly incomplete. Safety measures and health information lacked sufficient specificity despite varying compositions and concentrations of components. There is generally incompatibility between mentioned sections on the suggested non-hazardous nature of the products and health effects. Not all substances used in these products have harmonized classifications, which makes them open to various classification of the products and the suggested safety measures. This results in different companies classifying similar products differently. Risk management measures and suggested personal protective equipment (PPEs) are given haphazardly. Physical properties relevant to risk assessment are not included. The safety data sheets are ambiguous, and they lack relevant and important information. Inadequate information and risk assessment concerning the products can lead to workers being exposed to hazardous chemicals. Underestimation of the hazard contribution of the components of the products and the insufficient, non-objective mention of appropriate control and protective measures are the major contributing elements. There is a need to test the

  3. Evaluation of the contribution of renin angiotensin system polymorphisms to the risk of coronary artery disease among Tunisians.

    PubMed

    Abboud, Nesrine; Ghazouani, Lakhder; Kaabi, Belhassen; Ben-Hadj-Khalifa, Sonia; Addad, Fawzi; Marwen, Mahjoub; Almawi, Wassim Y; Mahjoub, Touhami

    2010-10-01

    Recent studies have identified genetic markers that may directly influence the risk of the coronary artery disease (CAD), in particular the renin angiotensin system genes. Since there are no existing data for the Tunisian population, we investigated the association between these polymorphisms (angiotensin-converting enzyme [ACE] insertion/deletion [Ins/Del]; the angiotensinogen T174M and M235T; and the angiotensin II type 1 receptor A1166C polymorphisms) and CAD in Tunisians. Study subjects comprised 341 cases and 316 age- and sex-matched healthy individuals. Clinical characteristics and other biochemical and environmental risk factors were collected for both. The distribution of the Ins/Del genotypes was significantly different between cases and controls (p = 0.049) with the genotype Ins/Ins identified as a risk, p = 0.02. Similarly, the distributions of the T174M and M235T genotypes were significantly different between cases and controls (p = 0.037 and 0.047, respectively) with 174 M/M and 235 T/T as the risky genotypes (p = 0.001 and 0.026, respectively). However, A1166C genotype frequencies were not significantly different between patients and controls. In conclusion, our results suggest that a significantly higher risk of CAD was associated with the Ins/Del, the M235T, and T174M polymorphisms; other environmental variables such as body mass index; and biochemical variables such as cholesterol.

  4. The Contribution of Parenting Practices and Parent Emotion Factors in Children at Risk for Disruptive Behavior Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duncombe, Melissa E.; Havighurst, Sophie S.; Holland, Kerry A.; Frankling, Emma J.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the impact of different parenting characteristics on child disruptive behavior and emotional regulation among a sample of at-risk children. The sample consisted of 373 Australian 5- to 9-year-old children who were screened for serious behavior problems. Seven parenting variables based on self-report were…

  5. The Contribution of Parenting Practices and Parent Emotion Factors in Children at Risk for Disruptive Behavior Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duncombe, Melissa E.; Havighurst, Sophie S.; Holland, Kerry A.; Frankling, Emma J.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the impact of different parenting characteristics on child disruptive behavior and emotional regulation among a sample of at-risk children. The sample consisted of 373 Australian 5- to 9-year-old children who were screened for serious behavior problems. Seven parenting variables based on self-report were…

  6. The Contribution of Personality Traits, Motivation, Academic Risk-Taking and Metacognition to the Creative Ability in Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erbas, Ayhan Kursat; Bas, Selda

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which personality traits, motivation, academic risk-taking, and metacognition explain the mathematical creative ability of high school students. The participants were 217 9th-grade students that were exceptionally high achievers. The participants responded to a set of measures about…

  7. PBPK Models, BBDR Models, and Virtual Tissues: How Will They Contribute to the Use of Toxicity Pathways in Risk Assessment?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Accuracy in risk assessment, which is desirable in order to ensure protection of the public health while avoiding over-regulation of economically-important substances, requires quantitatively accurate, in vivo descriptions of dose-response and time-course behaviors. This level of...

  8. Genetic variant in visfatin gene promoter contributes to reduced risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in a Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Yiyong; Zhu, Shengbo; Feng, Yi; Ye, Huifen; Liu, Chunming; Tang, Shifu

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge on the role of gene variants in the visfatin promoter region in the hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver diseases is limited. In this study, we genotyped two potentially functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the visfatin promoter region, -1535C>T (rs61330082) and -3187G>A (rs11977021), in 120 HBV-related chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, 140 HBV-related liver cirrhosis (HBV-LC) patients, 243 HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV-HCC) patients, and 224 asymptomatic HBV carriers. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by logistic regression. The results showed subjects with a TT genotype of -1535C>T had a significantly decreased risk of HBV-HCC related to the CC and CC + CT genotypes (adjusted OR = 0.493, 95% CI = 0.313-0.778; OR = 0.535, 95% CI = 0.362-0.791, respectively). A lowered risk also appeared in the comparison between allele T and allele C (OR = 0.734, 95%, CI = 0.581-0.950). However, these associations existed only in people with Zhuang ethnicity, but not in people with Han ethnicity. There were no significant associations between -3187G>A polymorphisms and the risk of HBV-related liver diseases. Our results suggested that visfatin -1535C>T polymorphisms might be associated with decreased risk of HBV-HCC among the ethnic Zhuang population in Guangxi, China. PMID:27792999

  9. Contribution of industrial density and socioeconomic status to the spatial distribution of thyroid cancer risk in Hangzhou, China.

    PubMed

    Fei, Xufeng; Lou, Zhaohan; Christakos, George; Liu, Qingmin; Ren, Yanjun; Wu, Jiaping

    2017-09-19

    The thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in China has increased dramatically during the last three decades. Typical in this respect is the case of Hangzhou city (China), where 7147 new TC cases were diagnosed during the period 2008-2012. Hence, the assessment of the TC incidence risk increase due to environmental exposure is an important public health matter. Correlation analysis, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Poisson regression were first used to evaluate the statistical association between TC and key risk factors (industrial density and socioeconomic status). Then, the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) theory and the integrative disease predictability (IDP) criterion were combined to quantitatively assess both the overall and the spatially distributed strength of the "exposure-disease" association. Overall, higher socioeconomic status was positively correlated with higher TC risk (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.687, P<0.01). Compared to people of low socioeconomic status, people of median and high socioeconomic status showed higher TC risk: the Relative Risk (RR) and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were found to be, respectively, RR=2.29 with 95% CI=1.99 to 2.63, and RR=3.67 with 95% CI=3.22 to 4.19. The "industrial density-TC incidence" correlation, however, was non-significant. Spatially, the "socioeconomic status-TC" association measured by the corresponding IDP coefficient was significant throughout the study area: the mean IDP value was -0.12 and the spatial IDP values were consistently negative at the township level. It was found that stronger associations were distributed among residents mainly on a stripe of land from northeast to southwest (consisting mainly of sub-district areas). The "industrial density-TC" association measured by its IDP coefficient was spatially non-consistent. Socioeconomic status is an important indicator of TC risk factor in Hangzhou (China) whose effect varies across space. Hence, socioeconomic status shows the highest TC

  10. The contribution of major depression to the global burden of ischemic heart disease: a comparative risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its

  11. Supplementing the Braden scale for pressure ulcer risk among medical inpatients: the contribution of self-reported symptoms and standard laboratory tests.

    PubMed

    Skogestad, Ingrid Johansen; Martinsen, Liv; Børsting, Tove Elisabet; Granheim, Tove Irene; Ludvigsen, Eirin Sigurdssøn; Gay, Caryl L; Lerdal, Anners

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate medical inpatients' symptom experience and selected laboratory blood results as indicators of their pressure ulcer risk as measured by the Braden scale. Pressure ulcers reduce quality of life and increase treatment costs. The prevalence of pressure ulcers is 6-23% in hospital populations, but literature suggests that most pressure ulcers are avoidable. Prospective, cross-sectional survey. Three hundred and twenty-eight patients admitted to medical wards in an acute hospital in Oslo, Norway consented to participate. Data were collected on 10 days between 2012-2014 by registered nurses and nursing students. Pressure ulcer risk was assessed using the Braden scale, and scores <19 indicated pressure ulcer risk. Skin examinations were categorised as normal or stages I-IV using established definitions. Comorbidities were collected by self-report. Self-reported symptom occurrence and distress were measured with 15 items from the Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale, and pain was assessed using two numeric rating scales. Admission laboratory data were collected from medical records. Prevalence of pressure ulcers was 11·9, and 20·4% of patients were identified as being at risk for developing pressure ulcers. Multivariable analysis showed that pressure ulcer risk was positively associated with age ≥80 years, vomiting, severe pain at rest, urination problems, shortness of breath and low albumin and was negatively associated with nervousness. Our study indicates that using patient-reported symptoms and standard laboratory results as supplemental indicators of pressure ulcer risk may improve identification of vulnerable patients, but replication of these findings in other study samples is needed. Nurses play a key role in preventing pressure ulcers during hospitalisation. A better understanding of the underlying mechanisms may improve the quality of care. Knowledge about symptoms associated with pressure ulcer risk may contribute to a faster clinical judgment of

  12. Common variants in the haemostatic gene pathway contribute to risk of early-onset myocardial infarction in the Italian population.

    PubMed

    Guella, Ilaria; Duga, Stefano; Ardissino, Diego; Merlini, Pier Angelica; Peyvandi, Flora; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio; Asselta, Rosanna

    2011-10-01

    Occlusive coronary thrombus formation superimposed on an atherosclerotic plaque is the ultimate event leading to myocardial infarction (MI). Therefore, haemostatic proteins may represent important players in the pathogenesis of MI. It was the objective of this study to evaluate, in a comprehensive way, the role of haemostatic gene polymorphisms in predisposition to premature MI. A total of 810 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 37 genes were assessed for association with MI in a large cohort (1,670 males, 210 females) of Italian patients who suffered from an MI event before the age of 45, and an equal number of controls. Thirty-eight SNPs selected from the literature were genotyped using the SNPlex technology, whereas genotypes for the remaining 772 SNPs were extracted from a previous genome-wide association study. Genotypes were analysed by a standard case-control analysis corrected for classical cardiovascular risk factors, and by haplotype analysis. A weighted Genetic Risk Score (GRS) was calculated. Evidence for association with MI after covariate correction was found for 35 SNPs in 12 loci: F5, PROS1, F11, ITGA2, F12, F13A1, SERPINE1, PLAT, VWF, THBD, PROCR, and F9. The weighted GRS was constructed by including the top SNP for each of the 12 associated loci. The GRS distribution was significantly different between cases and controls, and subjects in the highest quintile had a 2.69-fold increased risk for MI compared with those in the lowest quintile. Our results suggest that a GRS, based on the combined effect of several risk alleles in different haemostatic genes, is associated with an increased risk of MI.

  13. Can chronic disease management plans including occupational therapy and physiotherapy services contribute to reducing falls risk in older people?

    PubMed

    Mackenzie, Lynette; Clemson, Lindy

    2014-04-01

    Exercise and home modifications are effective interventions for preventing falls. Chronic disease management (CDM) items are one way for general practitioners (GPs) to access these interventions. This study aimed to evaluate the outcomes and feasibility of using CDM items for occupational therapy (OT) and physiotherapy (PT) sessions to address falls risk. A pre-post pilot study design was used to evaluate five collaborative sessions shared by a private OT and PT using CDM items and a GP management plan. Pre and post intervention measures were used to evaluate outcomes for eight patients aged ≥75 years from two GP practices. At 2 months post-intervention there were significant improvements in everyday functioning (P = 0.04), physical capacity (P = 0.01) and falls efficacy (P =0.01). Adherence to the intervention was excellent. Falls prevention interventions can be effective in primary care settings and sustainable pathways need to be developed to ensure access for older people at risk.

  14. The contribution of parenting practices and parent emotion factors in children at risk for disruptive behavior disorders.

    PubMed

    Duncombe, Melissa E; Havighurst, Sophie S; Holland, Kerry A; Frankling, Emma J

    2012-10-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the impact of different parenting characteristics on child disruptive behavior and emotional regulation among a sample of at-risk children. The sample consisted of 373 Australian 5- to 9-year-old children who were screened for serious behavior problems. Seven parenting variables based on self-report were evaluated, involving parenting practices, emotion beliefs and behaviors, emotion expressiveness, and mental health. Outcome variables based on parent/teacher report were child disruptive behavior problems and emotion regulatory ability. When entered simultaneously in a multiple regression analysis, inconsistent discipline, negative parental emotional expressiveness, and parent mental health demonstrated the strongest relationship to disruptive behavior problems and problems with emotion regulation. The data presented here elucidate multiple risk pathways to disruptive behavior disorders and can inform the design of prevention and early intervention programs.

  15. Risk factors for vulnerable youth in urban townships in South Africa: The potential contribution of reactive attachment disorder.

    PubMed

    Pritchett, Rachel; Rochat, Tamsen J; Tomlinson, Mark; Minnis, Helen

    2013-12-01

    Reactive attachment disorder (RAD) is a psychiatric disorder developing in early or middle childhood as a consequence of significant failures in the caregiving environment. RAD results in children failing to relate socially, either by exhibiting markedly inhibited behaviour or by indiscriminate social behaviour and is associated with significant socio-behavioural problems in the longer term. This study examined RAD in South Africa, a setting with high environmental risks. We recruited a sub-sample of 40 10-year-old children from a cohort enrolled during pregnancy for whom early attachment status was known. Children were purposefully selected to represent the four attachment categories using the data available on the strange situation procedure (SSP) at 18 months. The Manchester Child Attachment Story Task (MCAST) assessed current attachment and RAD was diagnosed using a standardised assessment package. A high proportion of the children (5/40% or 12.5%) fulfilled diagnostic criteria for RAD; all were boys and were displaying the disinhibited type. SSP classification at 18 months was not significantly associated with RAD symptoms at age of 10 years, while current MCAST classifications were. This suggests that children in this sample are at much higher risk of RAD than in high-income populations, and despite a fairly typical attachment distribution in this population at 18 months, RAD was evidenced in later childhood and associated with current attachment disorganisation. The strengths of this research include its longitudinal nature and use of diagnostic assessments. Given increasing evidence that RAD is relatively stable over time and introduces longer term socio-behavioural risks; the high rate of RAD in this sample (12.5%) highlights potential developmental threats to children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our results should be interpreted with caution given sample size and risk of selection bias. Further research is needed to confirm these findings.

  16. Risk factors for vulnerable youth in urban townships in South Africa: The potential contribution of reactive attachment disorder

    PubMed Central

    Pritchett, Rachel; Rochat, Tamsen J.; Tomlinson, Mark; Minnis, Helen

    2013-01-01

    Reactive attachment disorder (RAD) is a psychiatric disorder developing in early or middle childhood as a consequence of significant failures in the caregiving environment. RAD results in children failing to relate socially, either by exhibiting markedly inhibited behaviour or by indiscriminate social behaviour and is associated with significant socio-behavioural problems in the longer term. This study examined RAD in South Africa, a setting with high environmental risks. We recruited a sub-sample of 40 10-year-old children from a cohort enrolled during pregnancy for whom early attachment status was known. Children were purposefully selected to represent the four attachment categories using the data available on the strange situation procedure (SSP) at 18 months. The Manchester Child Attachment Story Task (MCAST) assessed current attachment and RAD was diagnosed using a standardised assessment package. A high proportion of the children (5/40% or 12.5%) fulfilled diagnostic criteria for RAD; all were boys and were displaying the disinhibited type. SSP classification at 18 months was not significantly associated with RAD symptoms at age of 10 years, while current MCAST classifications were. This suggests that children in this sample are at much higher risk of RAD than in high-income populations, and despite a fairly typical attachment distribution in this population at 18 months, RA