Science.gov

Sample records for risk assessment implications

  1. Ecological risk assessment: implications of hormesis.

    PubMed

    van der Schalie, W H; Gentile, J H

    2000-01-01

    Hormesis is a widespread phenomenon across many taxa and chemicals, and, at the single species level, issues regarding the application of hormesis to human health and ecological risk assessment are similar. For example, convincing the public of a 'beneficial' effect of environmental chemicals may be problematic, and the design and analysis of laboratory studies may require modifications to detect hormesis. However, interpreting the significance of hormesis for even a single species in an ecological risk assessment can be complicated by considerations of competition with other species, predation effects, etc. Ecological risk assessments involve more than a single species; they may involve communities of hundreds or thousands of species as well as a range of ecological processes. Applying hormetic adjustments to threshold effect levels for chemicals derived from sensitivity distributions for a large number of species is impractical. For ecological risks, chemical stressors are frequently of lessor concern than physical stressors such as habitat alteration or biological stressors such as introduced species, but the relevance of hormesis to non-chemical stressors is unclear. Although ecological theories such as the intermediate disturbance hypothesis offer some intriguing similarities between chemical hormesis and hormetic-like responses resulting from physical disturbances, mechanistic explanations are lacking. Further exploration of the relevance of hormesis to ecological risk assessment is desirable. Aspects deserving additional attention include developing a better understanding of the hormetic effects of chemical mixtures, the relevance of hormesis to physical and biological stressors and the development of criteria for determining when hormesis is likely to be relevant to ecological risk assessments.

  2. Practical Implications of Nonlinear Effects in Risk-Assessment Harmonization

    PubMed Central

    Bukowski, John A.; Lewis, R. Jeffrey

    2004-01-01

    Cancer and noncancer health effects have traditionally been handled differently in quantitative risk assessment. A threshold (i.e., safe exposure) has been assumed for noncancer health effects, and low-dose linearity without a threshold has been assumed for cancer. “Harmonization” attempts to reconcile these contrasting assumptions under one paradigm. Recent regulatory initiatives suggest that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency may be leaning toward a harmonized, probabilistic/linear approach for noncancer health effects. Proponents of this approach cite variability in human susceptibility as an argument against thresholds (i.e., some individuals may be exquisitely sensitive at exposures well below threshold levels). They also cite the results of epidemiological models that suggest low-dose linearity for noncancer health effects. We will discuss the implications of these arguments and compare them to what is known about human biological variability in general. We will also touch on the regulatory implications of hormesis within this framework. PMID:19330103

  3. Lymphohematopoietic Cancers Induced by Chemicals and Other Agents: Overview and Implications for Risk Assessment (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the release of the final report, Lymphohematopoietic Cancers Induced by Chemicals and Other Agents: Overview and Implications for Risk Assessment . This report provides an overview of the types of mechanisms underlying the lymphohematopoietic cancers induc...

  4. Lymphohematopoietic Cancers Induced by Chemicals and Other Agents: Overview and Implications for Risk Assessment (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the release of the final report, Lymphohematopoietic Cancers Induced by Chemicals and Other Agents: Overview and Implications for Risk Assessment . This report provides an overview of the types of mechanisms underlying the lymphohematopoietic cancers induc...

  5. Uncertainty in environmental risk assessment: implications for risk-based management of river basins.

    PubMed

    Ragas, Ad M J; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Henning-de Jong, Irmgard; Leuven, Rob S E W

    2009-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment is typically uncertain due to different perceptions of the risk problem and limited knowledge about the physical, chemical, and biological processes underlying the risk. The present paper provides a systematic overview of the implications of different types of uncertainty for risk management, with a focus on risk-based management of river basins. Three different types of uncertainty are distinguished: 1) problem definition uncertainty, 2) true uncertainty, and 3) variability. Methods to quantify and describe these types of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated in 4 case studies. The case studies demonstrate that explicit regulation of uncertainty can improve risk management (e.g., by identification of the most effective risk reduction measures, optimization of the use of resources, and improvement of the decision-making process). It is concluded that the involvement of nongovernmental actors as prescribed by the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) provides challenging opportunities to address problem definition uncertainty and those forms of true uncertainty that are difficult to quantify. However, the WFD guidelines for derivation and application of environmental quality standards could be improved by the introduction of a probabilistic approach to deal with true uncertainty and a better scientific basis for regulation of variability.

  6. Production of Insecticide Degradates in Juices: Implications for Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Radford, Samantha A; Panuwet, Parinya; Hunter, Ronald E; Barr, Dana Boyd; Ryan, P Barry

    2016-06-08

    This study was designed to observe the production of degradates of two organophosphorus insecticides and one pyrethroid insecticide in beverages. Purified water, white grape juice, apple juice, and red grape juice were fortified with 500 ng/g malathion, chlorpyrifos, and permethrin, and aliquots were extracted for malathion dicarboxylic acid (MDA), 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), and 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3-PBA) several times over a 15 day period of being stored in the dark at 2.5 °C. Overall, first-order kinetics were observed for production of MDA, and statistically significant production of TCPy was also observed. Statistically significant production of 3-phenoxybenzoic acid was not observed. Results indicate that insecticides degrade in food and beverages, and this degradation may lead to preexisting insecticide metabolites in the beverages. Therefore, it is suggested that caution should be exercised when using urinary insecticide metabolites to assess exposure and risk.

  7. Extreme sensitivity and the practical implications of risk assessment thresholds.

    PubMed

    Bukowski, John; Nicolich, Mark; Lewis, R Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Traditional risk-assessment theory assumes the existence of a threshold for non-cancer health effects. However, a recent trend in environmental regulation rejects this assumption in favor of non-threshold linearity for these endpoints. This trend is driven largely by two related concepts: (1) a theoretical assumption of wide-ranging human sensitivity, and (2) inability to detect thresholds in epidemiologic models. Wide-ranging sensitivity assumes a subpopulation with extreme background vulnerability, so that even trivial environmental exposures are hazardous to someone somewhere. We use examples from the real world of clinical medicine to show that this theoretical assumption is inconsistent with the biology of mammalian systems and the realities of patient care. Using examples from particulate-matter air-pollution research, we further show that failure to reject linearity is usually driven by statistical rather than biological considerations, and that nonlinear/threshold models often have a similar or better fit than their linear counterparts. This evidence suggests the existence of practical, real-world thresholds for most chemical exposures.

  8. Extreme Sensitivity and the Practical Implications of Risk Assessment Thresholds

    PubMed Central

    Bukowski, John; Nicolich, Mark; Lewis, R. Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Traditional risk-assessment theory assumes the existence of a threshold for non-cancer health effects. However, a recent trend in environmental regulation rejects this assumption in favor of non-threshold linearity for these endpoints. This trend is driven largely by two related concepts: (1) a theoretical assumption of wide-ranging human sensitivity, and (2) inability to detect thresholds in epidemiologic models. Wide-ranging sensitivity assumes a subpopulation with extreme background vulnerability, so that even trivial environmental exposures are hazardous to someone somewhere. We use examples from the real world of clinical medicine to show that this theoretical assumption is inconsistent with the biology of mammalian systems and the realities of patient care. Using examples from particulate-matter air-pollution research, we further show that failure to reject linearity is usually driven by statistical rather than biological considerations, and that nonlinear/threshold models often have a similar or better fit than their linear counterparts. This evidence suggests the existence of practical, real-world thresholds for most chemical exposures. PMID:23930098

  9. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    For presentation at the 45th Annual Symposium of the Society of Toxicology of Canada. The meeting will be held on 4-5 December 2013 at the Ottawa Convention Centre. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment. Rory Conolly, Offi...

  10. Chemical/Radiation Hormesis Database, Evaluation of Hormetic Mechanisms and their Biomedical and Risk Assessment Implications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    independent of biological model, endpoint measured and chemical class evaluated. These findings have potential implications with respect to drug discovery ... drug development and clinical evaluation as well as inhuman toxicology and risk assessment. The completed findings have been subjected to peer-review

  11. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    For presentation at the 45th Annual Symposium of the Society of Toxicology of Canada. The meeting will be held on 4-5 December 2013 at the Ottawa Convention Centre. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment. Rory Conolly, Offi...

  12. POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS AT EPA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Benson, W.H., K. Gallagher and K. Dearfield. In press. Potential Implications of Genomics for Regulatory and Risk Assessment Applications at EPA (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R1002).

    Advance...

  13. GENOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR EPA REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued its Interim Policy on Genomics in June 2002. The policy acknowledges that genomics data and analyses will significantly impact many areas of scientific research as well as human health and ecological assessments. Further, the inter...

  14. Risk communication discourse among ecological risk assessment professionals and its implications for communication with nonexperts.

    PubMed

    Hunka, Agnieszka D; Palmqvist, Annemette; Thorbek, Pernille; Forbes, Valery E

    2013-10-01

    Risk communication, especially to the general public and end users of plant protection products, is an important challenge. Currently, much of the risk communication the general public receives is via the popular press, and risk managers face the challenge of presenting their decisions and their scientific basis to the general public in an understandable way. Therefore, we decided to explore the obstacles in risk communication, as done by expert risk assessors and managers. Using the discourse analysis framework and readability tests, we studied perspectives of 3 stakeholder groups-regulators, industry representatives, and academics across Europe. We conducted 30 confidential interviews (10 participants in each group), with part of the interview guide focused on communication of pesticide risk to the general public and the ideas experts in the field of risk assessment and management hold of the public perception of pesticides. We used the key informant approach in recruiting our participants. They were first identified as key stakeholders in ecological risk assessment of pesticides and then sampled by means of a snowball sampling technique. In the analysis, first we identified main motifs (themes) in each group, and then we moved to studying length of the sentences and grammar and to uncovering discourses present in the text data. We also used the Flesch Reading Ease test to determine the comprehension difficulty of transcribed interviews. The test is commonly used as a standard for estimating the readability of technical documents. Our results highlight 3 main obstacles standing in the way of effective communication with wider audiences. First of all, ecological risk assessment as a highly technical procedure uses the specific language of ecological risk assessment, which is also highly specialized and might be difficult to comprehend by nonexperts. Second, the idea of existing "expert-lay discrepancy," a phenomenon described in risk perception studies is visibly

  15. Implications of recent ICRP recommendations for risk assessments for radioactive waste disposal and cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Devgun, J.S.

    1992-01-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) adopted a new set of recommendations in November 1990 which were issued at ICRP Publication No. 60 in March 1991. These recommendations incorporate new radiobiological information and outline a comprehensive system of radiological protection. This paper evaluates the implications of these new recommendations vis a vis risk assessments for radioactive waste disposal and remediation of radioactively contaminated sites.

  16. Implications of recent ICRP recommendations for risk assessments for radioactive waste disposal and cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Devgun, J.S.

    1992-04-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) adopted a new set of recommendations in November 1990 which were issued at ICRP Publication No. 60 in March 1991. These recommendations incorporate new radiobiological information and outline a comprehensive system of radiological protection. This paper evaluates the implications of these new recommendations vis a vis risk assessments for radioactive waste disposal and remediation of radioactively contaminated sites.

  17. Formaldehyde and Leukemia: Epidemiology, Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Luoping; Freeman, Laura E. Beane; Nakamura, Jun; Hecht, Stephen S.; Vandenberg, John J.; Smith, Martyn T.; Sonawane, Babasaheb R.

    2009-01-01

    Formaldehyde is widely used in the United States and other countries. Occupational and environmental exposures to formaldehyde may be associated with an increased risk of leukemia in exposed individuals. However, risk assessment of formaldehyde and leukemia has been challenging due to inconsistencies in human and animal studies and the lack of a known mechanism for leukemia induction. Here we provide a summary of the symposium at the Environmental Mutagen Society Meeting in 2008, which focused on the epidemiology of formaldehyde and leukemia, potential mechanisms, and implication for risk assessment, with emphasis on future directions in multidisciplinary formaldehyde research. Updated results of two of the three largest industrial cohort studies of formaldehyde-exposed workers have shown positive associations with leukemia, particularly myeloid leukemia, and a recent meta-analysis of studies to date supports this association. Recent mechanistic studies have shown the formation of formaldehyde-induced DNA adducts and characterized the essential DNA repair pathways that mitigate formaldehyde toxicity. The implications of the updated findings for the design of future studies to more effectively assess the risk of leukemia arising from formaldehyde exposure were discussed and specific recommendations were made. A toxicogenomic approach in experimental models and human exposure studies, together with the measurement of biomarkers of internal exposure, such as formaldehyde-DNA and protein adducts, should prove fruitful. It was recognized that increased communication among scientists who perform epidemiology, toxicology, biology, and risk assessment could enhance the design of future studies, which could ultimately reduce uncertainty in the risk assessment of formaldehyde and leukemia. PMID:19790261

  18. Rare disasters and risk attitudes: international differences and implications for integrated assessment modeling.

    PubMed

    Ding, P; Gerst, M D; Bernstein, A; Howarth, R B; Borsuk, M E

    2012-11-01

    Evaluation of public policies with uncertain economic outcomes should consider society's preferences regarding risk. However, the preference models used in most integrated assessment models, including those commonly used to inform climate policy, do not adequately characterize the risk attitudes revealed by typical investment decisions. Here, we adopt an empirical approach to risk preference description using international historical data on investment returns and the occurrence of rare economic disasters. We improve on earlier analyses by employing a hierarchical Bayesian inference procedure that allows for nation-specific estimates of both disaster probabilities and preference parameters. This provides a stronger test of the underlying investment model than provided by previous calibrations and generates some compelling hypotheses for further study. Specifically, results suggest that society is substantially more averse to risk than typically assumed in integrated assessment models. In addition, there appear to be systematic differences in risk preferences among nations. These results are likely to have important implications for policy recommendations: higher aversion to risk increases the precautionary value of taking action to avoid low-probability, high-impact outcomes. However, geographically variable attitudes toward risk indicate that this precautionary value could vary widely across nations, thereby potentially complicating the negotiation of transboundary agreements focused on risk reduction.

  19. Assessing genetic risks: Implications for health and social policy. Executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Andrews, L.B.; Fullarton, J.E.; Holtzman, N.A.; Motulsky, A.G.

    1994-12-31

    The last decade has seen remarkable growth in the understanding of genetics as applied to medicine. In addition, the technology for the detection of genetic diseases has developed rapidly, and testing for genetic diseases with DNA techniques has become increasingly possible. The last few years have also seen the initiation of the Human Genome Project, the aim of which is mapping and ultimately sequencing all human genes--giving special attention to genes that cause or may predispose to disease. As part of this ambitious project, and for the first time in the history of science, a special effort is being made as part of a large research project to explore its broader social implications. Three to five percent of the funding available for the Human Genome Project has been set aside to study the many social, ethical, and legal implications that will result from better understanding of human heredity and its impact on disease. Since assessment of genetic risks by genetic testing is expanding rapidly, the Institute of medicine (IOM) of the National Academy of Sciences undertook this study to assess the current status and future implications of such testing. This study deals with some of the scientific aspects of genetic risk assessment as well as the many societal problems that have already arisen and are likely to be posed by future developments.

  20. Assessing dengue infection risk in the southern region of Taiwan: implications for control.

    PubMed

    Liao, C-M; Huang, T-L; Cheng, Y-H; Chen, W-Y; Hsieh, N-H; Chen, S-C; Chio, C-P

    2015-04-01

    Dengue, one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases, is a major international public health concern. This study aimed to assess potential dengue infection risk from Aedes aegypti in Kaohsiung and the implications for vector control. Here we investigated the impact of dengue transmission on human infection risk using a well-established dengue-mosquito-human transmission dynamics model. A basic reproduction number (R 0)-based probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate dengue infection risk. Our findings confirm that the effect of biting rate plays a crucial role in shaping R 0 estimates. We demonstrated that there was 50% risk probability for increased dengue incidence rates exceeding 0.5-0.8 wk-1 for temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C. We further demonstrated that the weekly increased dengue incidence rate can be decreased to zero if vector control efficiencies reach 30-80% at temperatures of 19-32°C. We conclude that our analysis on dengue infection risk and control implications in Kaohsiung provide crucial information for policy-making on disease control.

  1. Assessing coughing-induced influenza droplet transmission and implications for infection risk control.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Y-H; Wang, C-H; You, S-H; Hsieh, N-H; Chen, W-Y; Chio, C-P; Liao, C-M

    2016-01-01

    Indoor transmission of respiratory droplets bearing influenza within humans poses high risks to respiratory function deterioration and death. Therefore, we aimed to develop a framework for quantifying the influenza infection risk based on the relationships between inhaled/exhaled respiratory droplets and airborne transmission dynamics in a ventilated airspace. An experiment was conducted to measure the size distribution of influenza-containing droplets produced by coughing for a better understanding of potential influenza spread. Here we integrated influenza population transmission dynamics, a human respiratory tract model, and a control measure approach to examine the indoor environment-virus-host interactions. A probabilistic risk model was implemented to assess size-specific infection risk for potentially transmissible influenza droplets indoors. Our results found that there was a 50% probability of the basic reproduction number (R0) exceeding 1 for small-size influenza droplets of 0·3-0·4 µm, implicating a potentially high indoor infection risk to humans. However, a combination of public health interventions with enhanced ventilation could substantially contain indoor influenza infection. Moreover, the present dynamic simulation and control measure assessment provide insights into why indoor transmissible influenza droplet-induced infection is occurring not only in upper lung regions but also in the lower respiratory tract, not normally considered at infection risk.

  2. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

    2015-11-15

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Benzene toxicity and risk assessment, 1972-1992: implications for future regulation.

    PubMed Central

    Paustenbach, D J; Bass, R D; Price, P

    1993-01-01

    Acute and chronic exposure to benzene vapors poses a number of health hazards to humans. To evaluate the probability that a specific degree of exposure will produce an adverse effect, risk assessment methods must be used. This paper reviews much of the published information and evaluates the various risk assessments for benzene that have been conducted over the past 20 years. There is sufficient evidence that chronic exposure to relatively high concentrations of benzene can produce an increased incidence of acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). Some studies have indicated that benzene may cause other leukemias, but due to the inconsistency of results, the evidence is not conclusive. To predict the leukemogenic risk for humans exposed to much lower doses of benzene than those observed in most epidemiology studies, a model must be used. Although several models could yield plausible results, to date most risk assessments have used the linear-quadratic or conditional logistic models. These appear to be the most appropriate ones for providing the cancer risk for airborne concentrations of 1 ppb to 10 ppm, the range most often observed in the community and workplace. Of the seven major epidemiology studies that have been conducted, there is a consensus that the Pliofilm cohort (rubber workers) is the best one for estimating the cancer potency because it is the only one with good exposure and incidence of disease data. The current EPA, OSHA, and ACGIH cancer potency estimates for benzene are based largely on this cohort. A retrospective exposure assessment and an analysis of the incidence of disease in these workers were completed in 1991. All of these issues are discussed and the implications evaluated in this paper. The range of benzene exposures to which Americans are commonly exposed and the current regulatory criteria are also presented. PMID:8020442

  4. Relationship between comorbidity and violence risk assessment in forensic psychiatry - the implication of neuroimaging studies.

    PubMed

    Palijan, Tija Zarković; Radeljak, Sanja; Kovac, Marina; Kovacević, Drazen

    2010-06-01

    Violence is an important social problem. Violence in the community has important social relevance for the political, criminal justice, and health care systems. Studies of homicide offenders have suggested a high prevalence of neurologic dysfunction due to organic brain damage such as traumatic brain injury, epilepsy and dementia have been observed to exhibit excessive violence. Moreover, violence in the mentally ill can be viewed as an important medical and mental health problem with significant implications for forensic psychiatry and the community. Although numerous previous studies showed that rate of violent behavior in the community is not much higher in patients with serious mental disorders (schizophrenia) than in healthy controls, that rate is substantially higher in patients with psychiatric comorbidity and substance abuse. A high proportion of patients in forensic psychiatric facilities are diagnosed with comorbidity, most often with schizophrenia, paranoid psychosis, organic brain syndrome, various personality disorders and comorbid substance abuse. These patients represent a high risk group for violence within forensic psychiatric facilities, and repetitive violent behavior in the community. Understanding the neurobiological basis of aggressive behavior clearly has important social and clinical implications. By introduction of neuroimaging studies (MRI, fMRI, PET, SPECT) as a useful tool in forensic psychiatry, the neurobiological aspect of violence is better understood. Previous studies have shown that individuals with frontotemporal brain dysfunction are frequently displaying antisocial behavior (disinhibition, impulsivity, lack of empathy) that justify the diagnosis of "acquired sociopathy/psychopathy". A correlation between the potential for impulsive aggression mediated by limbic brain structures, and the control of the aggression by frontotemporal brain regions has been shown. The individuals with such brain dysfunction have an increased risk of

  5. PCB in tissue concentrations in great blue heron occupying a Superfund site: Risk assessment implications

    SciTech Connect

    Halbrook, R.S.; Brewer, R.; Mitchell, J.M.

    1994-12-31

    Using existing ambient concentrations of chemicals and conservative assumptions, preliminary risk assessment has indicated that piscivorous wildlife along the Clinch River adjacent to the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), Oak Ridge, TN are potentially at risk from exposure to PCBs. Total PCB concentrations in great blue heron egg and chick liver tissue (7.69 {mu}g/g and 1.91 {mu}g/g, respectively) collected from a tributary to the Clinch River passing through the ORR, were significantly greater than concentrations in egg and chick liver tissue (1.24 {mu}g/g and 0.71 {mu}g/g, respectively) collected off the ORR. Mono and non-ortho CB congeners also were greater in heron tissues collected on the ORR compared to those collected off the ORR. Reproductive parameters (eggs/nest and chicks/nest) were not significantly different between locations. These data indicate that herons nesting on the ORR are exposed to PCBs, however, concentrations are insufficient to illicit a detectable adverse reproductive response in this species. Risk assessment implications are that piscivorous species utilizing habitats on the ORR are accumulating environmental contaminants greater than back ground concentrations for this region, however, only the most sensitive species are probably adversely effected. Continued monitoring will provide base-line data for evaluating natural resource damages and remediation decisions.

  6. Comparison of Risk Predicted by Multiple Norovirus Dose-Response Models and Implications for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Van Abel, Nicole; Schoen, Mary E; Kissel, John C; Meschke, J Scott

    2016-06-10

    The application of quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) to understand and mitigate risks associated with norovirus is increasingly common as there is a high frequency of outbreaks worldwide. A key component of QMRA is the dose-response analysis, which is the mathematical characterization of the association between dose and outcome. For Norovirus, multiple dose-response models are available that assume either a disaggregated or an aggregated intake dose. This work reviewed the dose-response models currently used in QMRA, and compared predicted risks from waterborne exposures (recreational and drinking) using all available dose-response models. The results found that the majority of published QMRAs of norovirus use the 1 F1 hypergeometric dose-response model with α = 0.04, β = 0.055. This dose-response model predicted relatively high risk estimates compared to other dose-response models for doses in the range of 1-1,000 genomic equivalent copies. The difference in predicted risk among dose-response models was largest for small doses, which has implications for drinking water QMRAs where the concentration of norovirus is low. Based on the review, a set of best practices was proposed to encourage the careful consideration and reporting of important assumptions in the selection and use of dose-response models in QMRA of norovirus. Finally, in the absence of one best norovirus dose-response model, multiple models should be used to provide a range of predicted outcomes for probability of infection.

  7. Nonadditive effects of PAHs on Early Vertebrate Development: mechanisms and implications for risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Billiard, Sonya M.; Meyer, Joel N.; Wassenberg, Deena M.; Hodson, Peter V.; Di Giulio, Richard T.

    2008-01-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants. Traditionally, much of the research has focused on the carcinogenic potential of specific PAHs, such as benzo(a)pyrene, but recent studies using sensitive fish models have shown that exposure to PAHs alters normal fish development. Some PAHs can induce a teratogenic phenotype similar to that caused by planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons, such as dioxin. Consequently, mechanism of action is often equated between the two classes of compounds. Unlike dioxins, however, the developmental toxicity of PAH mixtures is not necessarily additive. This is likely related to their multiple mechanisms of toxicity and their rapid biotransformation by CYP1 enzymes to metabolites with a wide array of structures and potential toxicities. This has important implications for risk assessment and management as the current approach for complex mixtures of PAHs usually assumes concentration addition. In this review we discuss our current knowledge of teratogenicity caused by single PAH compounds and by mixtures and the importance of these latest findings for adequately assessing risk of PAHs to humans and wildlife. Throughout, we place particular emphasis on research on the early life stages of fish, which has proven to be a sensitive and rapid developmental model to elucidate effects of hydrocarbon mixtures. PMID:18156145

  8. Sources and implications of variability in sensitivity to chemicals for ecotoxicological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Forbes, V E

    1998-01-01

    Variability among individuals in their responses to toxic chemicals arises from several sources, the most important of which are genetic differences, environmental influences (including maternal effects and historical factors) and measurement error. Effective risk assessment requires that estimates of toxicant response (e.g., LD50, EC50, LOEC, NOEC) are precise--that is, have narrow confidence limits-, repeatable--that is, different laboratories must obtain the same or very similar result-, and accurate--that is, they must provide a reasonable approximation of the effects of toxicants on real ecological systems. Determining which of the above-mentioned sources of variability has the greatest influence on toxicant response has implications for both the design and interpretation of ecotoxicological tests. If, for example, genetic influences are of overriding importance, controlling genotype (by using clones or inbred strains) can lead to greater precision but at the expense of accuracy when the objective is to estimate toxicant response for the species as a whole. Likewise, if environmental influences are of primary importance in controlling the response to toxicants, performing experiments under a standard temperature, light, and food regime may provide highly repeatable test results that have little relevance to the responses of populations in nature. Although there is little doubt that the development of standard ecotoxicological test guidelines (e.g., by the OECD), that control genetic and environmental sources of variability, has led to improvements in the practice of risk assessment, further advances will require a more sophisticated approach for dealing with these sources of uncertainty. There is a need for more systematic approaches for quantifying the sources of variability in toxicant response and for formally combining the error associated with each source in key risk assessment endpoints.

  9. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    SciTech Connect

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  10. Formaldehyde and LeukemiA: Epidemiology, Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Formaldehyde is widely used in the United States and other countries. Occupational and environmental exposures to formaldehyde may be associated with an increased risk of leukemia in exposed individuals. However, risk assessment of formaldehyde and leukemia has been challenging ...

  11. Formaldehyde and LeukemiA: Epidemiology, Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Formaldehyde is widely used in the United States and other countries. Occupational and environmental exposures to formaldehyde may be associated with an increased risk of leukemia in exposed individuals. However, risk assessment of formaldehyde and leukemia has been challenging ...

  12. EXPOSURE TO INTERMITTENT AIR POLLUTION AND CHANGES IN SEMEN QUALITY: EVIDENCE FOR AN ASSOCIATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR REPRODUCTIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure to Intermittent Air Pollution and Changes in Semen Quality:
    Evidence for an Association and Implications for Reproductive Risk Assessment.

    S. D. Perreault1, S.G. Selevan2, J. Rubes3, D. Zudova3, and D.P. Evenson4
    1US EPA, ORD/NHEERL, Research Triangle Pa...

  13. EXPOSURE TO INTERMITTENT AIR POLLUTION AND CHANGES IN SEMEN QUALITY: EVIDENCE FOR AN ASSOCIATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR REPRODUCTIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure to Intermittent Air Pollution and Changes in Semen Quality:
    Evidence for an Association and Implications for Reproductive Risk Assessment.

    S. D. Perreault1, S.G. Selevan2, J. Rubes3, D. Zudova3, and D.P. Evenson4
    1US EPA, ORD/NHEERL, Research Triangle Pa...

  14. The synergistic toxicity of the multiple chemical mixtures: implications for risk assessment in the terrestrial environment.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chen; Wang, Yanhua; Qian, Yongzhong; Zhao, Xueping; Wang, Qiang

    2015-04-01

    The combined toxicity of five insecticides (chlorpyrifos, avermectin, imidacloprid, λ-cyhalothrin, and phoxim), two herbicides (atrazine and butachlor) and a heavy metal (cadmium) has been examined with the earthworm acute toxicity test. Toxicological interactions of these chemicals in four, five, six, seven, and eight-component mixtures were studied using the combination-index (CI) equation method. In four-component and five-component mixtures, the synergistic effects predominated at lower effect levels, while the patterns of interactions found in six, seven, and eight-component mixtures displayed synergism. The λ-CY+IMI+BUT+ATR+CPF+PHO combination displayed the most strongly synergistic interaction, with CI values ranging from 0.09 to 0.15. The nature of the interaction changes with the effect level and the relevance of synergistic effects increase with the complexity of the mixture. The CI method was compared with the classical models of concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) and we found that the CI method could accurately predict the combined toxicity. The predicted synergism resulted from co-existence of the pesticides and the heavy metal especially at low effect levels may have important implications in risk assessment for the real terrestrial environment.

  15. Dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like toxic effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs): implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Giesy, J P; Kannan, K

    1998-11-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic contaminants in the environment. Individual PCB congeners exhibit different physicochemical properties and biological activities that result in different environmental distributions and toxicity profiles. The variable composition of PCB residues in environmental matrices and their different mechanisms of toxicity complicate the development of scientifically based regulations for the risk assessment. In this article various approaches for the assessment of risks of PCBs have been critically examined. Recent developments in the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach for the assessment of toxic effects due to dioxin-like PCBs have been examined. PCB exposure studies that describe non-dioxin-like toxic effects, particularly neurobehavioral effects and their effective doses in animals were compiled. A comparative assessment of effective doses for dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like effects by PCBs has been made to evaluate the relative significance of non-ortho-and ortho-substituted PCBs in risk assessment. Using mink as an example, relative merits and implications of using TEF and total PCB approaches for assessing the potential for toxic effects in wildlife was examined. There are several advantages and limitations associated with each method used for PCB risk assessment. Toxic effects due to coplanar PCBs occur at relatively smaller concentrations than those due to non-dioxin-like PCBs and therefore the TEF approach derives the risk assessment of PCBs, in the environment. The need for the refinement of TEF approach for more accurate assessment of risks is discussed.

  16. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  17. Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.

    PubMed

    Wardekker, J Arjan; de Jong, Arie; van Bree, Leendert; Turkenburg, Wim C; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P

    2012-09-19

    Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health

  18. Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

    PubMed Central

    Frey, Urs; Suki, Béla

    2009-01-01

    Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults. PMID:18805337

  19. Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control.

    PubMed

    Frey, Urs; Suki, Béla

    2008-09-20

    Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

  20. Geologic Subsidence in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, and its Implications for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verosub, K. L.; Delusina, I.; Shlemon, R. J.

    2009-05-01

    California probably moves more water within its boundaries than any other political entity in the world. A key component of the state's water distribution system is the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The decrease in land-surface elevation of artificial islands and tracts within the Delta is generally attributed to the draining of peat-rich wetlands and the subsequent disappearance of organic material through oxidation, wind erosion and other processes. This anthropogenic subsidence is of great concern because it increases pore pressure on the levees that surround the islands and tracts. Failure of Delta levees will have serious economic and social consequences not only locally, but for the entire state of California. However, the anthropogenic subsidence is superimposed on natural geologic subsidence that, for the most part, has received little attention in risk assessments. Ages for basal peat deposits in cores at 18 sites within the Delta indicate that peat formation began about 6500 years BP. At most sites the basal peat is about 9 meters below current sea level. Global sea level curves suggest that about 6500 years ago, sea level was only 3 meters below current sea level. Because peat is generally assumed to form at or slightly below sea level, the most reasonable interpretation of the data from the basal peat deposits is that about 6 meters of natural geologic subsidence has occurred in the Delta over the past 6500 years. A subsidence rate of about 1 meter per 1000 years agrees well with estimates deduced by Shlemon and Begg (1971) from the present depth of tilted, older alluvial fans in the Sacramento Valley. These observations have profound implications for the assessment and mitigation of risk in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. First, the rate of geologic subsidence is comparable to the recent rate of sea level rise due to anthropogenic global climate change, and because these two effects operate in concert, stress increase on Delta levees may well be

  1. Susceptibility based upon Chemical Interaction with Disease Processes: Potential Implications for Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    One of the challenges facing toxicology and risk assessment is that numerous host and environmental factors may modulate vulnerability and risk. An area of increasing interest is the potential for chemicals to interact with background aging and disease processes, an interaction...

  2. Susceptibility based upon Chemical Interaction with Disease Processes: Potential Implications for Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    One of the challenges facing toxicology and risk assessment is that numerous host and environmental factors may modulate vulnerability and risk. An area of increasing interest is the potential for chemicals to interact with background aging and disease processes, an interaction...

  3. Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment.

    PubMed

    Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair B A; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes.

  4. IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF HUMAN HEALTH RISKS OF CHEMICALS IN THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

    PubMed Central

    Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair BA; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:62–78. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23147420

  5. Nutrition Can Modulate the Toxicity of Environmental Pollutants: Implications in Risk Assessment and Human Health

    PubMed Central

    Ormsbee, Lindell; McClain, Craig J.; Watkins, Bruce A.; Blumberg, Bruce; Bachas, Leonidas G.; Sanderson, Wayne; Thompson, Claudia; Suk, William A.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The paradigm of human risk assessment includes many variables that must be viewed collectively in order to improve human health and prevent chronic disease. The pathology of chronic diseases is complex, however, and may be influenced by exposure to environmental pollu-tants, a sedentary lifestyle, and poor dietary habits. Much of the emerging evidence suggests that nutrition can modulate the toxicity of environmental pollutants, which may alter human risks associated with toxicant exposures. Objectives: In this commentary, we discuss the basis for recommending that nutrition be considered a critical variable in disease outcomes associated with exposure to environmental pollutants, thus establishing the importance of incorporating nutrition within the context of cumulative risk assessment. Discussion: A convincing body of research indicates that nutrition is a modulator of vulnerability to environmental insults; thus, it is timely to consider nutrition as a vital component of human risk assessment. Nutrition may serve as either an agonist or an antagonist (e.g., high-fat foods or foods rich in antioxidants, respectively) of the health impacts associated with exposure to environmental pollutants. Dietary practices and food choices may help explain the large variability observed in human risk assessment. Conclusion: We recommend that nutrition and dietary practices be incorporated into future environmental research and the development of risk assessment paradigms. Healthful nutrition interventions might be a powerful approach to reduce disease risks associated with many environmental toxic insults and should be considered a variable within the context of cumulative risk assessment and, where appropriate, a potential tool for subsequent risk reduction. PMID:22357258

  6. Assessment of risk factors for oro-facial pain and recent developments in classification: implications for management.

    PubMed

    Svensson, P; Kumar, A

    2016-12-01

    Oro-facial pain research has during the last decades provided important novel insights into the basic underlying mechanisms, the need for standardised diagnostic procedures and classification systems, and multiple treatment options for successful rehabilitation of the patient in pain. Notwithstanding the significant progress in our knowledge spanning from molecules to chair, there may also be limitations in our ability to integrate and interpret the tremendous amount of new data and information, in particular in terms of the clinical implications and overriding conceptual models for oro-facial pain. The aim of the present narrative review is to briefly summarise some of the current thoughts on oro-facial pain mechanisms and recent attempts to identify biomarkers and risk factors leading to the proposal of a new risk assessment diagram for oro-facial pain (RADOP) and a provocative new concept based on stochastic variation between multiple risk factors. Finally, the implications for novel management strategies will briefly be discussed.

  7. Common vole (Microtus arvalis) ecology and management: implications for risk assessment of plant protection products.

    PubMed

    Jacob, Jens; Manson, Phil; Barfknecht, Ralf; Fredricks, Timothy

    2014-06-01

    Common voles (Microtus arvalis) are common small mammals in some European landscapes. They can be a major rodent pest in European agriculture and they are also a representative generic focal small herbivorous mammal species used in risk assessment for plant protection products. In this paper, common vole population dynamics, habitat and food preferences, pest potential and use of the common vole as a model small wild mammal species in the risk assessment process are reviewed. Common voles are a component of agroecosystems in many parts of Europe, inhabiting agricultural areas (secondary habitats) when the carrying capacity of primary grassland habitats is exceeded. Colonisation of secondary habitats occurs during multiannual outbreaks, when population sizes can exceed 1000 individuals ha(-1) . In such cases, in-crop common vole population control management has been practised to avoid significant crop damage. The species' status as a crop pest, high fecundity, resilience to disturbance and intermittent colonisation of crop habitats are important characteristics that should be reflected in risk assessment. Based on the information provided in the scientific literature, it seems justified to modify elements of the current risk assessment scheme for plant protection products, including the use of realistic food intake rates, reduced assessment factors or the use of alternativee focal rodent species in particular European regions. Some of these adjustments are already being applied in some EU member states. Therefore, it seems reasonable consistently to apply such pragmatic and realistic approaches in risk assessments for plant protection products across the EU. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  8. Ownership of High-Risk ("Vicious") Dogs as a Marker for Deviant Behaviors: Implications for Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, Jaclyn E.; Boat, Barbara W.; Putnam, Frank W.; Dates, Harold F.; Mahlman, Andrew R.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined the association between ownership of high-risk ("vicious") dogs and the presence of deviant behaviors in the owners as indicated by court convictions. We also explored whether two characteristics of dog ownership (abiding licensing laws and choice of breed) could be useful areas of inquiry when assessing risk status…

  9. Ownership of High-Risk ("Vicious") Dogs as a Marker for Deviant Behaviors: Implications for Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, Jaclyn E.; Boat, Barbara W.; Putnam, Frank W.; Dates, Harold F.; Mahlman, Andrew R.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined the association between ownership of high-risk ("vicious") dogs and the presence of deviant behaviors in the owners as indicated by court convictions. We also explored whether two characteristics of dog ownership (abiding licensing laws and choice of breed) could be useful areas of inquiry when assessing risk status…

  10. Hormesis--implications for risk assessment caloric intake (body weight) as an exemplar.

    PubMed

    Turturro, A; Hass, B; Hart, R W

    1998-08-01

    Hormesis can be considered as a parameter which has a non-monotonic relationship with some endpoint. Since caloric intake is such a parameter, and the impact of this parameter on risk assessment has been fairly well characterized, it can provide clues as to how to integrate the information from a hormetic parameter into risk assessments for toxicants. Based on the work with caloric intake, one could: (a) define a biomarker for hormetic effect; (b) integrate specific information on when in the animals lifespan the parameter is active to influence parameters such as survival; (c) evaluate component effects of the overall hormetic response; and (d) address the consequences of a non-monotonic relationship between the hormetic parameter and endpoints critical for risk assessment. These impacts on risk assessments have been characterized for chronic tests, but are also true for short-term tests. A priority is the characterization of the dose-response curves for hormetic parameters. This quantification will be critical in utilizing them in risk assessment. With this information, one could better quantitatively address the changes one expects to result from the hormetic parameter, and limit the uncertainty and variability which occurs in toxicity testing.

  11. Co-occurring mental health and substance use problems in offenders: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Ruiz, Mark A; Douglas, Kevin S; Edens, John F; Nikolova, Natalia L; Lilienfeld, Scott O

    2012-03-01

    We undertook a secondary data analysis to study issues relevant to co-occurring mental health and substance disorder in a combined sample of offenders (N = 3,197). Using the Personality Assessment Inventory, we compared the frequency of depressive, traumatic stress, and personality disorder symptom elevations across offenders with and without substance problems, identified the extent to which co-occurring problems were accompanied by risk factors for suicide and aggression, and tested for gender differences. Offenders with substance problems were more likely than others to have increased mental health problems and risk factors for suicide or aggression. Women with substance problems, compared with men, had higher depression, traumatic stress, and borderline features, in addition to lower antisocial features. The frequency with which suicide and aggression risk factors were associated with mental health problems was generally similar across men and women. Measurement issues relevant to co-occurring disorder and risk assessment are discussed.

  12. Risk management & organizational uncertainty implications for the assessment of high consequence organizations

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, C.T.

    1995-02-23

    Post hoc analyses have demonstrated clearly that macro-system, organizational processes have played important roles in such major catastrophes as Three Mile Island, Bhopal, Exxon Valdez, Chernobyl, and Piper Alpha. How can managers of such high-consequence organizations as nuclear power plants and nuclear explosives handling facilities be sure that similar macro-system processes are not operating in their plants? To date, macro-system effects have not been integrated into risk assessments. Part of the reason for not using macro-system analyses to assess risk may be the impression that standard organizational measurement tools do not provide hard data that can be managed effectively. In this paper, I argue that organizational dimensions, like those in ISO 9000, can be quantified and integrated into standard risk assessments.

  13. Arsenic relative bioavailability from diet and airborne exposures: Implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Yager, Janice W; Greene, Tracy; Schoof, Rosalind A

    2015-12-01

    Major human environmental health concern has been associated with inorganic arsenic (iAs) in drinking water in which dissolved iAs is highly bioavailable. More recently health concerns have been raised regarding the extent of iAs exposure via food and other potential sources. Arsenic relative bioavailability (RBA) in soil is known to be variable; the extent and role of iAs bioavailability in food are not well characterized. iAs in coal fly ash and bottom ash are other potential exposure media for which RBA has not been well characterized. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to support evaluation of the contribution of food and coal fly ash to iAs exposure. Few studies were found that investigated bioavailability associated with As-containing coal ash or airborne As-containing particles; estimated bioavailability in these studies ranged from 11% to 50%. The implications and potential usefulness of iAs bioavailability associated with inhalation exposure to human health risk assessment remain unknown at this time. Main sources of dietary iAs intake in the U.S. include rice and other grains, vegetables, and fruits. Due to low concentrations of iAs, seafood is not a primary contributor to dietary iAs intake. Three general kinds of food studies were identified: studies of As bioaccessibility in composites, As bioavailability and bioaccessibility in specific foods, and As consumption and urinary excretion in human volunteers. One in vivo study was identified that examined As bioavailability in food. A variety of experimental in vitro gastro-intestinal protocols have been used, however, few studies have included As speciation before and after the in vitro extraction. Current data suggest that the bioaccessibility of iAs in rice is quite high, typically 70% or more indicating that iAs in rice is highly bioavailable. Adjusting for RBA may not have a meaningful impact on iAs exposure estimates for rice-based foods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  14. Long-term composition dynamics of PAH-containing NAPLs and implications for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, C.A.; Knightes, C.D.; Brown, D.G.

    1999-12-15

    Subsurface contaminants such as coal tar, creosote, diesel fuel, and other petroleum-derived materials typically exist as very complex chemical mixtures. Risk assessment is useful for site management if a single metric can represent the composition-dependent risk profile of the mixture. This paper examines the factors governing human health risk assessment for multicomponent nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A model is presented describing the interdependence of the dissolution rates of individual compounds and the shifts in the NAPL composition that occur due to the large differences in aqueous solubilities. The model also accounts for solidification of the less soluble NAPL constituents. Thirty-year numerical simulations describe composition dynamics for natural environmental processes as well as three remediation processes: pump-and-treat, bioremediation, and solvent extraction. Carcinogenic risk due to ingestion of contaminated groundwater at the source is estimated, and its dependence on contaminant removal and NAPL composition shifts is described. When composition dynamics are slow, a compound like naphthalene has great potential to contribute to risk because it may persist in groundwater. When there is significant depletion of the lower molecular weight compounds, the risk is dominated by contributions from compounds such as benzo[a]pyrene. Remediation technologies have the greatest potential for risk reduction if they are effective in removing the more carcinogenic, high molecular weight compounds. Because PAHs can contribute to risk for different reasons and because of the interdependence of their behaviors, compositional approaches lead to better risk predictions for PAHs than simple lumped metrics such as total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH).

  15. Current understanding of the mechanism of benzene-induced leukemia in humans: implications for risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    McHale, Cliona M.; Zhang, Luoping; Smith, Martyn T.

    2012-01-01

    Benzene causes acute myeloid leukemia and probably other hematological malignancies. As benzene also causes hematotoxicity even in workers exposed to levels below the US permissible occupational exposure limit of 1 part per million, further assessment of the health risks associated with its exposure, particularly at low levels, is needed. Here, we describe the probable mechanism by which benzene induces leukemia involving the targeting of critical genes and pathways through the induction of genetic, chromosomal or epigenetic abnormalities and genomic instability, in a hematopoietic stem cell (HSC); stromal cell dysregulation; apoptosis of HSCs and stromal cells and altered proliferation and differentiation of HSCs. These effects modulated by benzene-induced oxidative stress, aryl hydrocarbon receptor dysregulation and reduced immunosurveillance, lead to the generation of leukemic stem cells and subsequent clonal evolution to leukemia. A mode of action (MOA) approach to the risk assessment of benzene was recently proposed. This approach is limited, however, by the challenges of defining a simple stochastic MOA of benzene-induced leukemogenesis and of identifying relevant and quantifiable parameters associated with potential key events. An alternative risk assessment approach is the application of toxicogenomics and systems biology in human populations, animals and in vitro models of the HSC stem cell niche, exposed to a range of levels of benzene. These approaches will inform our understanding of the mechanisms of benzene toxicity and identify additional biomarkers of exposure, early effect and susceptibility useful for risk assessment. PMID:22166497

  16. Seasonal dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics and implications for multidrug-resistant infection risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lin, Y-J; Liao, C-M

    2014-02-01

    Understanding how seasonality shapes the dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) is essential in determining risks of transmission and drug resistance in (sub)tropical regions. We developed a relative fitness-based multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB model incorporated with seasonality and a probabilistic assessment model to assess infection risk in Taiwan regions. The model accurately captures the seasonal transmission and population dynamics of TB incidence during 2006-2008 and MDR TB in high TB burden areas during 2006-2010 in Taiwan. There is ~3% probability of having exceeded 50% of the population infected attributed to MDR TB. Our model not only provides insight into the understanding of the interactions between seasonal dynamics of TB and environmental factors but is also capable of predicting the seasonal patterns of TB incidence associated with MDR TB infection risk. A better understanding of the mechanisms of TB seasonality will be critical in predicting the impact of public control programmes.

  17. Calcium scores in the risk assessment of an asymptomatic population: implications for airline pilots.

    PubMed

    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Wu, Rodney; Abernethy, Malcolm; Aldington, Sarah; Larsen, Peter D

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluated whether coronary artery calcium score (CACS) improved cardiovascular disease risk prediction when compared to the New Zealand Cardiovascular Risk Charts (NZ-CRC), and describes the potential utilization of CACS in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment of pilots. A cross-sectional study was performed among asymptomatic patients who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at Pacific Radiology Wellington, New Zealand, between August 2007 and July 2012 and had their CACS and CVD risk score calculated. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to measure the accuracy of the NZ-CRC and CACS. Reclassification analyses were performed to examine the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of CACS when compared to NZ-CRC. Over a 5-yr study period, 237 male asymptomatic patients with ages ranging from 30 to 69 yr with a mean (SD) of 53.24 (8.18) yr, were included. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) (95% CI) for CACS and NZ-CRC were 0.88 (0.83-0.93) and 0.66 (0.59-0.73), respectively. The NRI (95% CI) of the calcium scores was 0.39 (0.17-0.62). CACS should be assessed in pilots with 5-yr CVD risk scores of 5-10% and 10-15%. CACS has a better accuracy than the NZ-CRC and reclassified a considerable proportion of asymptomatic patients into correct cardiovascular risk categories. An approach on how the CACS should be employed in the cardiovascular risk assessment of airline pilots is noted in this paper.

  18. Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

    PubMed

    Leake, Jonathan R; Adam-Bradford, Andrew; Rigby, Janette E

    2009-12-21

    Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with 'greenspace' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from 'grow-your-own' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating 'scares' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of 'obesity and sloth' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of 'grow-your-own' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide risk management in our

  19. Children's diets, pesticide uptake, and implications for risk assessment: An Israeli case study.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Shirra; Kaufman-Shriqui, Vered; Berman, Tamar; Varsano, Rina; Shahar, Danit R; Manor, Orly

    2016-01-01

    The presence of pesticides in the Israeli food supply is well documented but little is known about the risks posed by children's diets for potential exposures. We investigated potential exposures to food-borne pesticides in a sample of 301 urban Israeli children (2008-10). Data from a food frequency questionnaire, 24 hour food recall, and Israel's national pesticide monitoring program were used to estimate uptake factors for 26 compounds in 27 fruits and vegetables. A pilot risk assessment was performed and the findings were compared with the Israel Ministry of Health's 2012 pesticide risk assessment for the general population. The surveyed children had higher potential exposures than the general population for over one third of the compounds, and uptake factors exceeded the Acceptable Daily Intake in ten compounds. Methamidophos, exceeded the ADI at the 25th percentile and fenamiphos, iprodione, and oxydemethon methyl, exceeded the ADI at the 50 percentile. ADIs for several compounds were exceeded even though the residues detected were below the statutory limit. Improved monitoring, enforcement, and revision of the Maximum Residue Limit for certain food/pesticide pairs are indicated as is the need to incorporate data on children's actual food consumption in national risk assessments.

  20. Evolution of cancer risk assessment and counseling related to psychological, financial and legal implications.

    PubMed

    Snyder, Carrie

    2016-07-01

    Cancer risk assessment, genetic counseling and genetic testing have experienced advances and changes over the past two decades due to improved technology, legal movements to protect those at an increased risk for cancer due to genetics, as well as advances in detection, prevention and treatment. This brief article will provide a summary of these advances over three eras of cancer genetics: pre-discovery of the more common high impact genes, namely BRCA1/BRCA2 and the mismatch repair genes associated with Lynch syndrome; the time during which the genes were being discovered; and current day.

  1. Interactions between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in complex mixtures and implications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Ian W H; Dreij, Kristian; Mattsson, Åse; Jernström, Bengt; Stenius, Ulla

    2014-07-03

    In this review we discuss the effects of exposure to complex PAH mixtures in vitro and in vivo on mechanisms related to carcinogenesis. Of particular concern regarding exposure to complex PAH mixtures is how interactions between different constituents can affect the carcinogenic response and how these might be included in risk assessment. Overall the findings suggest that the responses resulting from exposure to complex PAH mixtures is varied and complicated. More- and less-than additive effects on bioactivation and DNA damage formation have been observed depending on the various mixtures studied, and equally dependent on the different test systems that are used. Furthermore, the findings show that the commonly used biological end-point of DNA damage formation is insufficient for studying mixture effects. At present the assessment of the risk of exposure to complex PAH mixtures involves comparison to individual compounds using either a surrogate or a component-based potency approach. We discuss how future risk assessment strategies for complex PAH mixtures should be based around whole mixture assessment in order to account for interaction effects. Inherent to this is the need to incorporate different experimental approaches using robust and sensitive biological endpoints. Furthermore, the emphasis on future research should be placed on studying real life mixtures that better represent the complex PAH mixtures that humans are exposed to.

  2. Genetically modified plants and food hypersensitivity diseases: usage and implications of experimental models for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Prescott, Vanessa E; Hogan, Simon P

    2006-08-01

    The recent advances in biotechnology in the plant industry have led to increasing crop production and yield that in turn has increased the usage of genetically modified (GM) food in the human food chain. The usage of GM foods for human consumption has raised a number of fundamental questions including the ability of GM foods to elicit potentially harmful immunological responses, including allergic hypersensitivity. To assess the safety of foods derived from GM plants including allergenic potential, the US FDA, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO), and the EU have developed approaches for evaluation assessment. One assessment approach that has been a very active area of research and debate is the development and usage of animal models to assess the potential allergenicity of GM foods. A number of specific animal models employing rodents, pigs, and dogs have been developed for allergenicity assessment. However, validation of these models is needed and consideration of the criteria for an appropriate animal model for the assessment of allergenicity in GM plants is required. We have recently employed a BALB/c mouse model to assess the potential allergenicity of GM plants. We have been able to demonstrate that this model is able to detect differences in antigenicity and identify aspects of protein post-translational modifications that can alter antigenicity. Furthermore, this model has also enabled us to examine the usage of GM plants as a therapeutic approach for the treatment of allergic diseases. This review discusses the current approaches to assess the allergenic potential of GM food and particularly focusing on the usage of animal models to determine the potential allergenicity of GM foods and gives an overview of our recent findings and implications of these studies.

  3. Dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like toxic effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs): implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Giesy, J P; Kannan, K; Blankenship, A L; Jones, P D; Hilscherova, K

    2000-07-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic contaminants in the environment. Individual PCB congeners exhibit different physico-chemical properties and biological activities which result in different environmental distributions and toxicity profiles. The variable composition of PCB residues in environmental matrices and their different mechanisms of toxicity, complicate the development of scientifically based regulations for the risk assessment. Various approaches for the assessment of risks of PCBs have been critically examined. Recent developments in the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach for the assessment of toxic effects due to dioxin-like PCBs have been examined. PCB exposure studies which describe non-dioxin-like toxic effects, particularly neuro-behavioral effects and their effective doses in animals were also considered. A comparative assessment of effective doses for dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like effects by PCBs was made to evaluate the relative significance of non-ortho and ortho-substituted PCBs in risk assessment. Using mink as an example, relative merits and implications of using TEF and total PCB approaches for assessing the potential for toxic effects in wildlife was examined.

  4. Polychlorinated biphenyls and Hudson River white perch: implications for population-level ecological risk assessment and risk management.

    PubMed

    Barnthouse, Lawrence W; Glaser, David; DeSantis, Liane

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk management decisions concerning risks to wild fish populations resulting from exposures to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and related chemicals have been based primarily on observations of effects of chemicals on individual organisms. Although the development and application of population-level ecological risk-assessment methods is proceeding at a rapid pace, the organism-level approach is still being justified by arguments that population-level ecological risk assessment is in an early stage of development and has not been shown to be reliable. This article highlights the importance of including population-level effects in risk-management decision-making, by examining the effects of exposures to PCBs on fish populations inhabiting the Hudson River, New York, USA, a system in which data have been collected for approximately 30 y concerning both concentrations of PCBs in sediment and fish tissue and the abundance and reproduction of exposed fish populations. We previously tested hypotheses concerning the effects of PCBs on the striped bass population of the Hudson River, and found that the available data conflicted with all of these hypotheses. Here, we report results of similar analyses of effects of historic PCB exposures on the Hudson River white perch population, using an extended data set that recently became available. As with striped bass, we found no correlation between maternal PCB tissue concentrations and any measure of reproductive success in Hudson River white perch during the 30-y period covered by the data set. Together with results of studies performed on fish populations exposed to PCBs at other sites, our results clearly demonstrate that physiological and genetic adaptation, biological compensation, and other ecological processes influence responses of fish populations to PCB exposures and should be considered in risk management decision-making.

  5. Ergonomic risk assessment of nasogastric tube placement and implications for design and training.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Oliver; Buckle, Peter; Hanna, George

    2012-01-01

    The placement of nasogastric (NG) tubes is known to be prone to error and may lead to serious issues for patient safety and wellbeing. In some instances these have been catastrophic and resulted in the death of the patient. This study sought to explore the potential risks associated with this procedure through the use of systematic prospective risk assessment. The research team used the Prospective Hazard Analysis (PHA) toolkit developed by Ward et al (2010) . The study has shown a wide number of risks that cover equipment design, work organisation, and training issues. The link between equipment design and training provides an important example of the need for a systematic approach to reducing errors and improving resilience in this aspect of healthcare.

  6. Environmental law applications of hormesis concepts: risk assessment and cost-benefit implications.

    PubMed

    Juni, R L; McElveen, J C

    2000-01-01

    This article focuses on legal structures that influence the degree to which hormesis can be incorporated into environmental law and policy. Three statutes-the Occupational Safety and Health Act, the Food Quality Protection Act, and the Clean Air Act-are used to illustrate the varied ways in which Congress, agencies and the courts have approached risk assessment and cost-benefit analyses that are relevant to the hormesis issue. This discussion features several examples of regulations and judicial decisions that have begun to recognize hormetic effects. The article concludes that hormesis concepts could be incorporated effectively into present risk assessment and cost-benefit mechanisms. In the context of agency action, an express policy decision might be made to broaden the typical scope of risk assessment and cost-benefit processes by including hormetic effects. In the judicial context, recognition of hormesis may occur where relevant statutory language is read to contemplate that an agency will consider both the beneficial and the detrimental effects of a particular substance in formulating regulations; in this circumstance, a reviewing court could reverse an agency decision that focuses solely on detrimental effects and ignores hormetic effects. Based on these evolving trends, the time may be ripe to seek further incorporation of hormesis concepts into environmental law and policy decisions.

  7. Implications of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Using the WHO/ISH Risk Prediction Charts in Rural India

    PubMed Central

    Raghu, Arvind; Praveen, Devarsetty; Peiris, David; Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifford, Gari

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in India is currently assessed using the World Health Organization/International Society for Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts since no population-specific models exist. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts have two versions—one with total cholesterol as a predictor (the high information (HI) model) and the other without (the low information (LI) model). However, information on the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts including guidance on which version to use and when, as well as relative performance of the LI and HI models, is limited. This article aims to, firstly, quantify the relative performance of the LI and HI WHO/ISH risk prediction (for WHO-South East Asian Region D) using data from rural India. Secondly, we propose a pre-screening (simplified) point-of-care (POC) test to identify patients who are likely to benefit from a total cholesterol (TC) test, and subsequently when the LI model is preferential to HI model. Analysis was performed using cross-sectional data from rural Andhra Pradesh collected in 2005 with recorded blood cholesterol measurements (N = 1066). CVD risk was computed using both LI and HI models, and high risk individuals who needed treatment(THR) were subsequently identified based on clinical guidelines. Model development for the POC assessment of a TC test was performed through three machine learning techniques: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Regularised Logistic Regression (RLR), and Random Forests (RF) along with a feature selection process. Disagreement in CVD risk predicted by LI and HI WHO/ISH models was 14.5% (n = 155; p<0.01) overall and comprised 36 clinically relevant THR patients (31% of patients identified as THR by using either model). Using two patient-specific parameters (age, systolic blood pressure), our POC assessment can pre-determine the benefit of TC testing and choose the appropriate risk model (out-of-sample AUCs:RF-0.85,SVM-0.84,RLR:0.82 and maximum sensitivity-98%). The

  8. Implications of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Using the WHO/ISH Risk Prediction Charts in Rural India.

    PubMed

    Raghu, Arvind; Praveen, Devarsetty; Peiris, David; Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifford, Gari

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in India is currently assessed using the World Health Organization/International Society for Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts since no population-specific models exist. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts have two versions-one with total cholesterol as a predictor (the high information (HI) model) and the other without (the low information (LI) model). However, information on the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts including guidance on which version to use and when, as well as relative performance of the LI and HI models, is limited. This article aims to, firstly, quantify the relative performance of the LI and HI WHO/ISH risk prediction (for WHO-South East Asian Region D) using data from rural India. Secondly, we propose a pre-screening (simplified) point-of-care (POC) test to identify patients who are likely to benefit from a total cholesterol (TC) test, and subsequently when the LI model is preferential to HI model. Analysis was performed using cross-sectional data from rural Andhra Pradesh collected in 2005 with recorded blood cholesterol measurements (N = 1066). CVD risk was computed using both LI and HI models, and high risk individuals who needed treatment(THR) were subsequently identified based on clinical guidelines. Model development for the POC assessment of a TC test was performed through three machine learning techniques: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Regularised Logistic Regression (RLR), and Random Forests (RF) along with a feature selection process. Disagreement in CVD risk predicted by LI and HI WHO/ISH models was 14.5% (n = 155; p<0.01) overall and comprised 36 clinically relevant THR patients (31% of patients identified as THR by using either model). Using two patient-specific parameters (age, systolic blood pressure), our POC assessment can pre-determine the benefit of TC testing and choose the appropriate risk model (out-of-sample AUCs:RF-0.85,SVM-0.84,RLR:0.82 and maximum sensitivity-98%). The

  9. A toxicokinetic model for thiamethoxam in rats: implications for higher-tier risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Edwards, Peter; Sibly, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille

    2013-04-01

    Risk assessment for mammals is currently based on external exposure measurements, but effects of toxicants are better correlated with the systemically available dose than with the external administered dose. So for risk assessment of pesticides, toxicokinetics should be interpreted in the context of potential exposure in the field taking account of the timescale of exposure and individual patterns of feeding. Internal concentration is the net result of absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME). We present a case study for thiamethoxam to show how data from ADME study on rats can be used to parameterize a body burden model which predicts body residue levels after exposures to LD50 dose either as a bolus or eaten at different feeding rates. Kinetic parameters were determined in male and female rats after an intravenous and oral administration of (14)C labelled by fitting one-compartment models to measured pesticide concentrations in blood for each individual separately. The concentration of thiamethoxam in blood over time correlated closely with concentrations in other tissues and so was considered representative of pesticide concentration in the whole body. Body burden model simulations showed that maximum body weight-normalized doses of thiamethoxam were lower if the same external dose was ingested normally than if it was force fed in a single bolus dose. This indicates lower risk to rats through dietary exposure than would be estimated from the bolus LD50. The importance of key questions that should be answered before using the body burden approach in risk assessment, data requirements and assumptions made in this study are discussed in detail.

  10. Interspecific sensitivity of bees towards dimethoate and implications for environmental risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Uhl, Philipp; Franke, Lea A.; Rehberg, Christina; Wollmann, Claudia; Stahlschmidt, Peter; Jeker, Lukas; Brühl, Carsten A.

    2016-01-01

    Wild and domesticated bee species are exposed to a variety of pesticides which may drive pollinator decline. Due to wild bee sensitivity data shortage, it is unclear if the honey bee Apis mellifera is a suitable surrogate species in the current EU risk assessment scheme. Furthermore, the underlying causes for sensitivity differences in bees are not established. We assessed the acute toxicity (median lethal dose, LD50) of dimethoate towards multiple bee species, generated a species sensitivity distribution and derived a hazardous dose (HD5). Furthermore, we performed a regression analysis with body weight and dimethoate toxicity. HD5 lower 95% confidence limit was equal to honey bee mean LD50 when applying a safety factor of 10. Body weight proved to be a predictor of interspecific bee sensitivity but did not explain the pattern completely. Using acute toxicity values from honey bees and a safety factor of 10 seems to cover the interspecific sensitivity range of bees in the case of dimethoate. Acute endpoints of proposed additional test species, the buff-tailed bumblebee Bombus terrestris and the red mason bee Osmia bicornis, do not improve the risk assessment for the entire group. However, this might not apply to other insecticides such as neonicotinoids. PMID:27686060

  11. Interspecific sensitivity of bees towards dimethoate and implications for environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Uhl, Philipp; Franke, Lea A; Rehberg, Christina; Wollmann, Claudia; Stahlschmidt, Peter; Jeker, Lukas; Brühl, Carsten A

    2016-09-30

    Wild and domesticated bee species are exposed to a variety of pesticides which may drive pollinator decline. Due to wild bee sensitivity data shortage, it is unclear if the honey bee Apis mellifera is a suitable surrogate species in the current EU risk assessment scheme. Furthermore, the underlying causes for sensitivity differences in bees are not established. We assessed the acute toxicity (median lethal dose, LD50) of dimethoate towards multiple bee species, generated a species sensitivity distribution and derived a hazardous dose (HD5). Furthermore, we performed a regression analysis with body weight and dimethoate toxicity. HD5 lower 95% confidence limit was equal to honey bee mean LD50 when applying a safety factor of 10. Body weight proved to be a predictor of interspecific bee sensitivity but did not explain the pattern completely. Using acute toxicity values from honey bees and a safety factor of 10 seems to cover the interspecific sensitivity range of bees in the case of dimethoate. Acute endpoints of proposed additional test species, the buff-tailed bumblebee Bombus terrestris and the red mason bee Osmia bicornis, do not improve the risk assessment for the entire group. However, this might not apply to other insecticides such as neonicotinoids.

  12. Comparative application of different risk assessment models and implications on resulting remediation options.

    PubMed

    Capodaglio, Andrea; Callegari, Arianna; Torretta, Vincenzo

    2014-01-01

    The issue of contaminated soils and their productive recovery is a quite controversial environmental and economic problem with important consequences for its social, public health and sustainability aspects. The sheer number and characteristics of the polluted sites are so large and varied, and the definition of priorities related to their remediation interventions so site-dependent, that proper characterization and final environmental quality goals reflect a strategic importance. One of the possible approaches to site specific approach and site priority ranking can be that of carrying out, respectively, absolute and comparative analysis procedures. An important aspect to be solved is represented by the necessity to consider not only the potential risk to public health, but also the best possible financial return from the investments for remediation, especially when carried out with public money. In this paper, different contaminated sites' risk assessment approaches are considered, compared and their applicability to support sustainable policies discussed using a case study.

  13. Regional Variability of Stream Responses to Urbanization: Implications for Risk-Based Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bledsoe, B. P.; Dust, D. W.; Hawley, R. J.

    2007-12-01

    Predictive scientific assessments of the geomorphic consequences of urbanization must be calibrated to the regional hydroclimatological, geologic, and historical context in which streams occur. We present examples of context-specific stream responses to hydromodification, and a general framework for risk-based modeling and scientific assessment of hydrologic-geomorphic-ecologic linkages in urbanizing watersheds. The framework involves: 1) a priori stratification of a region's streams based on flow regime, geomorphic context and susceptibility to changes in water, sediment, and wood regimes, 2) field surveys across a gradient of urban influence, 3) coupling long term hydrologic simulation with geomorphic analysis to quantify key hydrogeomorphic metrics, and 4) using probabilistic modeling to identify regional linkages between hydrogeomorphic descriptors and decision endpoints of primary interest to stakeholders and decision-makers.

  14. Potential Effects of Chlorpyrifos on Fetal Growth Outcomes: Implications for Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Mink, Pamela J.; Kimmel, Carole A.; Li, Abby A.

    2012-01-01

    Chlorpyrifos (CPF) is one of the most widely used organophosphate insecticides in the United States. By December 2000, nearly all residential uses were voluntarily canceled, so that today, CPF is only used to control insect pests on a variety of crops. Periodic review of the potential effects of CPF on all developmental outcomes is necessary in the United States because the Food Quality Protection Act mandates special consideration of risk assessments for infants and children. This article reviews epidemiologic studies examining the association of potential CPF exposure with growth indices, including birth weight, birth length, and head circumference, and animal studies focusing on related somatic developmental endpoints. It differs from earlier reviews by including an additional cohort study and providing in-depth systematic evaluation of the patterns of association across different studies with respect to specificity of biomarkers for CPF, consistency, dose response, strength of association, temporality, and biological plausibility (Hill 1965), as well as consideration of the potential role of effect modification and bias. The review did not identify any strong associations exhibiting consistent exposure-response patterns that were observed in more than one of the four cohort studies evaluated. In addition, the animal data indicate that developmental effects occur at doses that produce substantial maternal toxicity and red blood cell (RBC) acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition. Based on consideration of both the epidemiologic and animal data, maternal RBC AChE inhibition is a more sensitive endpoint for risk assessment than somatic developmental effects reviewed in this article. PMID:22571222

  15. Dust-Metal Sources in an Urbanized Arid Zone: Implications for Health-Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    García-Rico, Leticia; Meza-Figueroa, Diana; Gandolfi, A Jay; Del Río-Salas, Rafael; Romero, Francisco M; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes

    2016-04-01

    The available information concerning metal pollution in different dust sources and the health effects in children remains limited in Mexico. This study focuses on Hermosillo, which is an urbanized area located in the Sonoran Desert in which soil resuspension and dust emission processes are common. The metal content of arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb) were determined in three dust sources (playgrounds, roofs, and roads), each representing different exposure media (EM) for these elements. The metal levels in dust were found in the order of Mn > Cr > Pb > As with the highest metal content found in road dust. Despite the similar average metal distributions, principal component analysis shows a clear separation of the three EM with playground dust related to Cr and Mn and road dust to As and Pb. However, the geoaccumulation index results indicate that dust samples are uncontaminated to moderately polluted, except for Pb in road dust, which is considerably high. In addition, the enrichment factor suggests an anthropogenic origin for all of the studied metals except for Mn. In this context, the hazard index (HI) for noncarcinogenic risk is >1 in this population and thus represents a potential health risk. The spatial distribution for each metal on EM and the HI related to the marginality index could represent a more accurate decision-making tool in risk assessment studies.

  16. Risk factors and drug interactions predisposing to statin-induced myopathy: implications for risk assessment, prevention and treatment.

    PubMed

    Chatzizisis, Yiannis S; Koskinas, Konstantinos C; Misirli, Gesthimani; Vaklavas, Christos; Hatzitolios, Apostolos; Giannoglou, George D

    2010-03-01

    HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors ('statins') represent the most effective and widely prescribed drugs currently available for the reduction of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, a critical therapeutic target for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease. In the face of the established lipid lowering and the emerging pleiotropic properties of statins, the patient population suitable for long-term statin treatment is expected to further expand. An overall positive safety and tolerability profile of statins has been established, although adverse events have been reported. Skeletal muscle-related events are the most common adverse events of statin treatment. Statin-induced myopathy can (rarely) manifest with severe and potentially fatal cases of rhabdomyolysis, thus rendering the identification of the underlying predisposing factors critical. The purpose of this review is to summarize the factors that increase the risk of statin-related myopathy. Data from published clinical trials, meta-analyses, postmarketing studies, spontaneous report systems and case reports for rare effects were reviewed. Briefly, the epidemiology, clinical spectrum and molecular mechanisms of statin-associated myopathy are discussed. We further analyse in detail the risk factors that precipitate or increase the likelihood of statin-related myopathy. Individual demographic features, genetic factors and co-morbidities that may account for the significant interindividual variability in the myopathic risk are presented. Physicochemical properties of statins have been implicated in the differential risk of currently marketed statins. Pharmacokinetic interactions with concomitant medications that interfere with statin metabolism and alter their systemic bioavailability are reviewed. Of particular clinical interest in cases of resistant dyslipidaemia is the interaction of statins with other classes of lipid-lowering agents; current data on the relative safety of available

  17. Frontal plane comparison between drop jump and vertical jump: implications for the assessment of ACL risk of injury.

    PubMed

    Cesar, Guilherme M; Tomasevicz, Curtis L; Burnfield, Judith M

    2016-11-01

    The potential to use the vertical jump (VJ) to assess both athletic performance and risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury could have widespread clinical implications since VJ is broadly used in high school, university, and professional sport settings. Although drop jump (DJ) and VJ observationally exhibit similar lower extremity mechanics, the extent to which VJ can also be used as screening tool for ACL injury risk has not been assessed. This study evaluated whether individuals exhibit similar knee joint frontal plane kinematic and kinetic patterns when performing VJs compared with DJs. Twenty-eight female collegiate athletes performed DJs and VJs. Paired t-tests indicated that peak knee valgus angles did not differ significantly between tasks (p = 0.419); however, peak knee internal adductor moments were significantly larger during the DJ vs. VJ (p < 0.001). Pearson correlations between the DJ and VJ revealed strong correlations for knee valgus angles (r = 0.93, p < 0.001) and for internal knee adductor moments (r = 0.82, p < 0.001). Our results provide grounds for investigating whether frontal plane knee mechanics during VJ can predict ACL injuries and thus can be used as an effective tool for the assessment of risk of ACL injury in female athletes.

  18. Stochasticity in physiologically based kinetics models: implications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Péry, Alexandre Roger Raymond; Bois, Frederic Yves

    2009-08-01

    In case of low-dose exposure to a substance, its concentration in cells is likely to be stochastic. Assessing the consequences of this stochasticity in toxicological risk assessment requires the coupling of macroscopic dynamics models describing whole-body kinetics with microscopic tools designed to simulate stochasticity. In this article, we propose an approach to approximate stochastic cell concentration of butadiene in the cells of diverse organs. We adapted the dynamics equations of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and used a stochastic simulator for the system of equations that we derived. We then coupled kinetics simulations with a deterministic hockey stick model of carcinogenicity. Stochasticity induced substantial modifications relative to dose-response curve, compared with the deterministic situation. In particular, there was nonlinearity in the response and the stochastic apparent threshold was lower than the deterministic one. The approach that we developed could easily be extended to other biological studies to assess the influence of stochasticity at macroscopic scale for compound dynamics at the cell level.

  19. Limitations of a single-item assessment of suicide attempt history: Implications for standardized suicide risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hom, Melanie A; Joiner, Thomas E; Bernert, Rebecca A

    2016-08-01

    Although a suicide attempt history is among the single best predictors of risk for eventual death by suicide, little is known about the extent to which reporting of suicide attempts may vary by assessment type. The current study aimed to investigate the correspondence between suicide attempt history information obtained via a single-item self-report survey, multi-item self-report survey, and face-to-face clinical interview. Data were collected among a high-risk sample of undergraduates (N = 100) who endorsed a past attempt on a single-item prescreening survey. Participants subsequently completed a multi-item self-report survey, which was followed by a face-to-face clinical interview, both of which included additional questions regarding the timing and nature of previous attempts. Even though 100% of participants (n = 100) endorsed a suicide attempt history on the single-item prescreening survey, only 67% (n = 67) reported having made a suicide attempt on the multi-item follow-up survey. After incorporating ancillary information from the in-person interview, 60% of participants qualified for a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-defined suicide attempt. Of the 40% who did not qualify for a CDC-defined suicide attempt, 30% instead qualified for no attempt, 7% an aborted attempt, and 3% an interrupted attempt. These findings suggest that single-item assessments of suicide attempt history may result in the misclassification of prior suicidal behaviors. Given that such assessments are commonly used in research and clinical practice, these results emphasize the importance of utilizing follow-up questions and assessments to improve precision in the characterization and assessment of suicide risk. (PsycINFO Database Record

  20. Limitations of a Single-Item Assessment of Suicide Attempt History: Implications for Standardized Suicide Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Hom, Melanie A.; Joiner, Thomas E.; Bernert, Rebecca A.

    2015-01-01

    Although a suicide attempt history is among the single best predictors of risk for eventual death by suicide, little is known about the extent to which reporting of suicide attempts may vary by assessment type. The current study aimed to investigate the correspondence between suicide attempt history information obtained via a single-item self-report survey, multi-item self-report survey, and face-to-face clinical interview. Data were collected among a high-risk sample of undergraduates (N = 100) who endorsed a past attempt on a single-item prescreening survey. Participants subsequently completed a multi-item self-report survey, which was followed by a face-to-face clinical interview, both of which included additional questions regarding the timing and nature of previous attempts. Even though 100% of participants (n = 100) endorsed a suicide attempt history on the single-item prescreening survey, only 67% (n = 67) reported having made a suicide attempt on the multi-item follow-up survey. After incorporating ancillary information obtained from the in-person interview, 60% of participants qualified for a CDC-defined suicide attempt. Of the 40% who did not qualify for a CDC-defined suicide attempt, 30% instead qualified for no attempt, 7% an aborted attempt, and 3% an interrupted attempt. These findings suggest that single-item assessments of suicide attempt history may result in the misclassification of prior suicidal behaviors. Given that such assessments are commonly used in research and clinical practice, these results emphasize the importance of utilizing follow-up questions and assessments to improve precision in the characterization and assessment of suicide risk. PMID:26502202

  1. Diversity of the Burkholderia cepacia complex and implications for risk assessment of biological control strains.

    PubMed

    Parke, J L; Gurian-Sherman, D

    2001-01-01

    The Burkholderia cepacia complex (Bcc) consists of several species of closely related and extremely versatile gram-negative bacteria found naturally in soil, water, and the rhizosphere of plants. Strains of Bcc have been used in biological control of plant diseases and bioremediation, while some strains are plant pathogens or opportunistic pathogens of humans with cystic fibrosis. The ecological versatility of these bacteria is likely due to their unusually large genomes, which are often comprised of several (typically two or three) large replicons, as well as their ability to use a large array of compounds as sole carbon sources. The original species B. cepacia has been split into eight genetic species (genomovars), including five named species, but taxonomic distinctions have not enabled biological control strains to be clearly distinguished from human pathogenic strains. This has led to a reassessment of the risk of several strains registered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for biological control. We review the biology of Bcc bacteria, especially how our growing knowledge of Bcc ecology and pathogenicity might be used in risk assessment. The capability of this bacterial complex to cause disease in plants and humans, as well as to control plant diseases, affords a rare opportunity to explore traits that may function in all three environments.

  2. A study of chromium induced allergic contact dermatitis with 54 volunteers: implications for environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Nethercott, J; Paustenbach, D; Adams, R; Fowler, J; Marks, J; Morton, C; Taylor, J; Horowitz, S; Finley, B

    1994-01-01

    Over the past 60 years, dose-response patch test studies by various methods have been conducted in an attempt to identify the minimum elicitation threshold (MET) concentration of hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) that produces an allergic response in Cr(VI) sensitive subjects. These data are not adequate, however, to provide an accurate estimate of the MET because of the variability in the patch testing techniques and the variability in diagnostic criteria used. Furthermore, the data were not reported in terms of mass of allergen per surface area of skin (mg Cr/cm2-skin), which is necessary for conducting occupational or environmental health risk assessments. Thus the purpose of this study was to determine the MET (mg allergen/cm2) for Cr(VI) and trivalent chromium (Cr(III)) by patch testing techniques. A patch test method that delivers a controlled amount of allergen per surface area of skin was used. A group of 54 Cr(VI) sensitised volunteers were patch tested with serial dilutions of Cr(VI) and Cr(III) to determine the cumulative response rate at several concentrations. The results indicate that the 10% MET for Cr(VI) based on the cumulative response was 0.089 micrograms Cr(VI)/cm2-skin. Only one of the 54 volunteers may have responded to 33 micrograms Cr(III)/cm2-skin, otherwise Cr(III) was unable to produce allergic contact dermatitis in these highly sensitive volunteers. Two supplemental studies were also conducted to assess whether the surface area of the patch and the concentration of Cr(VI) in the patch (related to patch thickness) were likely to influence the results. The data from these studies were used to assess the risk of developing allergic contact dermatitis due to contact with Cr(VI) and Cr(III) in soil. The findings indicated that soil concentrations at least as high as 450 ppm Cr(VI) and 165,000 ppm Cr(III) should not pose an allergic contact dermatitis hazard for at least 99.99% of the people in the community who might be exposed. PMID:8044228

  3. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  4. Toxicity of five antibiotics and their mixtures towards photosynthetic aquatic organisms: implications for environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    González-Pleiter, Miguel; Gonzalo, Soledad; Rodea-Palomares, Ismael; Leganés, Francisco; Rosal, Roberto; Boltes, Karina; Marco, Eduardo; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca

    2013-04-15

    The individual and combined toxicities of amoxicillin, erythromycin, levofloxacin, norfloxacin and tetracycline have been examined in two organisms representative of the aquatic environment, the cyanobacterium Anabaena CPB4337 as a target organism and the green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata as a non-target organism. The cyanobacterium was more sensitive than the green alga to the toxic effect of antibiotics. Erythromycin was highly toxic for both organisms; tetracycline was more toxic to the green algae whereas the quinolones levofloxacin and norfloxacin were more toxic to the cyanobacterium than to the green alga. Amoxicillin also displayed toxicity to the cyanobacterium but showed no toxicity to the green alga. The toxicological interactions of antibiotics in the whole range of effect levels either in binary or multicomponent mixtures were analyzed using the Combination Index (CI) method. In most cases, synergism clearly predominated both for the green alga and the cyanobacterium. The CI method was compared with the classical models of additivity Concentration Addition (CA) and Independent Action (IA) finding that CI could accurately predict deviations from additivity. Risk assessment was performed by calculating the ratio between Measured Environmental Concentration (MEC) and the Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC). A MEC/PNEC ratio higher than 1 was found for the binary erythromycin and tetracycline mixture in wastewater effluents, a combination which showed a strong synergism at low effect levels in both organisms. From the tested antibiotic mixtures, it can be concluded that certain specific combinations may pose a potential ecological risk for aquatic ecosystems with the present environmentally measured concentrations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Undisclosed chemicals--implications for risk assessment: a case study from the mining industry.

    PubMed

    Singh, Khareen; Oates, Christopher; Plant, Jane; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-07-01

    Many of the chemicals used in industry can be hazardous to human health and the environment, and some formulations can have undisclosed ingredients and hazards, increasing the uncertainty of the risks posed by their use. The need for a better understanding of the extent of undisclosed information in chemicals arose from collecting data on the hazards and exposures of chemicals used in typical mining operations (copper, platinum and coal). Four main categories of undisclosed chemicals were defined (incomplete disclosure; chemicals with unspecific identities; relative quantities of ingredients not stated; and trade secret ingredients) by reviewing material safety data sheet (MSDS) omissions in previous studies. A significant number of chemicals (20% of 957 different chemicals) across the three sites had a range of undisclosed information, with majority of the chemicals (39%) having unspecific identities. The majority of undisclosed information was found in commercially available motor oils followed by cleaning products and mechanical maintenance products, as opposed to reagents critical to the main mining processes. All three types of chemicals had trade secrets, unspecific chemical identities and incomplete disclosures. These types of undisclosed information pose a hindrance to a full understanding of the hazards, which is made worse when combined with additional MSDS omissions such as acute toxicity endpoints (LD50) and/or acute aquatic toxicity endpoints (LC50), as well as inadequate hazard classifications of ingredients. The communication of the hazard information in the MSDSs varied according to the chemical type, the manufacturer and the regulations governing the MSDSs. Undisclosed information can undermine occupational health protection, compromise the safety of workers in industry, hinder risk assessment procedures and cause uncertainty about future health. It comes down to the duty of care that industries have towards their employees. With a wide range of

  6. The hidden costs of coastal hazards: Implications for risk assessment and mitigation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kunreuther, H.; Platt, R.; Baruch, S.; Bernknopf, R.L.; Buckley, M.; Burkett, V.; Conrad, D.; Davidson, T.; Deutsch, K.; Geis, D.; Jannereth, M.; Knap, A.; Lane, H.; Ljung, G.; McCauley, M.; Mileti, D.; Miller, T.; Morrow, B.; Meyers, J.; Pielke, R.; Pratt, A.; Tripp, J.

    2000-01-01

    Society has limited hazard mitigation dollars to invest. Which actions will be most cost effective, considering the true range of impacts and costs incurred? In 1997, the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment began a two-year study with a panel of experts to help develop new strategies to identify and reduce the costs of weather-related hazards associated with rapidly increasing coastal development activities.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards presents the panel's findings, offering the first in-depth study that considers the costs of coastal hazards to natural resources, social institutions, business, and the built environment. Using Hurricane Hugo, which struck South Carolina in 1989, as a case study, it provides for the first time information on the full range of economic costs caused by a major coastal hazard event. The book:describes and examines unreported, undocumented, and hidden costs such as losses due to business interruption, reduction in property values, interruption of social services, psychological trauma, damage to natural systems, and othersexamines the concepts of risk and vulnerability, and discusses conventional approaches to risk assessment and the emerging area of vulnerability assessmentrecommends a comprehensive framework for developing and implementing mitigation strategiesdocuments the human impact of Hurricane Hugo and provides insight from those who lived through it.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards takes a structured approach to the problem of coastal hazards, offering a new framework for community-based hazard mitigation along with specific recommendations for implementation. Decisionmakers -- both policymakers and planners -- who are interested in coastal hazard issues will find the book a unique source of new information and insight, as will private-sector decisionmakers including lenders, investors, developers, and insurers of coastal property.

  7. Computational models of ethanol-induced neurodevelopmental toxicity across species: Implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gohlke, Julia M; Griffith, William C; Faustman, Elaine M

    2008-02-01

    Computational, systems-based approaches can provide a quantitative construct for evaluating risk in the context of mechanistic data. Previously, we developed computational models for the rat, mouse, rhesus monkey, and human, describing the acquisition of adult neuron number in the neocortex during the key neurodevelopmental processes of neurogenesis and synaptogenesis. Here we apply mechanistic data from the rat describing ethanol-induced toxicity in the developing neocortex to evaluate the utility of these models for analyzing neurodevelopmental toxicity across species. Our model can explain long-term neocortical neuronal loss in the rodent model after in utero exposure to ethanol based on inhibition of proliferation during neurogenesis. Our human model predicts a significant neuronal deficit after daily peak BECs reaching 10-20 mg/dl, which is the approximate BEC reached after drinking one standard drink within one hour. In contrast, peak daily BECs of 100 mg/dl are necessary to predict similar deficits in the rat. Our model prediction of increased sensitivity of primate species to ethanol-induced inhibition of proliferation is based on application of in vivo experimental data from primates showing a prolonged rapid growth period in the primate versus rodent neuronal progenitor population. To place our predictions into a broader context, we evaluate the evidence for functional low-dose effects across rats, monkeys, and humans. Results from this critical evaluation suggest subtle effects are evident at doses causing peak BECs of approximately 20 mg/dl daily, corroborating our model predictions. Our example highlights the utility of a systems-based modeling approach in risk assessment.

  8. Safety assessment of biotechnology products for potential risk of food allergy: implications of new research.

    PubMed

    Selgrade, MaryJane K; Bowman, Christal C; Ladics, Gregory S; Privalle, Laura; Laessig, Susan A

    2009-07-01

    Food allergy is a potential risk associated with use of transgenic proteins in crops. Currently, safety assessment involves consideration of the source of the introduced protein, in silico amino acid sequence homology comparisons to known allergens, physicochemical properties, protein abundance in the crop, and, when appropriate, specific immunoglobulin E binding studies. Recently conducted research presented at an International Life Sciences Institute/Health and Environmental Sciences Institute-hosted workshop adds to the scientific foundation for safety assessment of transgenic proteins in five areas: structure/activity, serum screening, animal models, quantitative proteomics, and basic mechanisms. A web-based tool is now available that integrates a database of allergenic proteins with a variety of computational tools which could be used to improve our ability to predict allergenicity based on structural analysis. A comprehensive strategy and model protocols have been developed for conducting meaningful serum screening, an extremely challenging process. Several animal models using oral sensitization with adjuvant and one dermal sensitization model have been developed and appear to distinguish allergenic from non-allergenic food extracts. Data presented using a mouse model suggest that pepsin resistance is indicative of allergenicity. Certain questions remain to be addressed before considering animal model validation. Gel-free mass spectrometry is a viable alternative to more labor-intensive approaches to quantitative proteomics. Proteomic data presented on four nontransgenic varieties of soy suggested that if known allergen expression in genetically modified crops falls within the range of natural variability among commercial varieties, there appears to be no need to test further. Finally, basic research continues to elucidate the etiology of food allergy.

  9. The inadequacies of pre-market chemical risk assessment's toxicity studies-the implications.

    PubMed

    Tweedale, Anthony C

    2017-01-01

    Industry provides essentially all the data for most (pre-market) chemical risk assessments (RA); academics study a chemical once it is marketed. For two randomly-chosen high production chemicals, despite new European Union mandates to evaluate all data, just 13% of the herbicide bentazon and 15% of the flame-retardant hexabromocyclododecane's published toxicity studies were found in their pre-market RA, and a systematic review on bentazon concludes it has greater hazards than indicated in its RA. More important, for both, academia's toxicity studies were designated as lower quality than industries were, despite showing hazards at lower doses. The accuracy of industry's test methods is analyzed and found to be replicable but insensitive, thus inaccurate. The synthetic pharmaceutical industry originated them, and by 1983 the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development mandated their test guidelines (TG) methods be accepted for any new study for pre-market RA. For existing studies, industry's "Klimisch" criterion is universally used to evaluate quality, but it only states that TG studies produce the best data. However, no TG can answer the realistic exposure effect hypotheses of academics; therefore, crucially in pre-market RA, tens of thousands of published experimental findings (increasingly at low dose) are ignored to determine the safe dose. Few appreciate this, so scientific debate on the most accurate elements of toxicity tests is urgently indicated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. High atherogenic index of plasma in subclinical hypothyroidism: Implications in assessment of cardiovascular disease risk

    PubMed Central

    James, Stephen R.; Ray, Lopamudra; Ravichandran, Kandasamy; Nanda, Sunil Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Background: A controversy exists regarding the association between subclinical hypothyroidism (SH) and dyslipidemia. Moreover, studies on lipid ratios and atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) in SH are rare, particularly in the Indian scenario. Aim: This study aimed to investigate abnormalities in conventional lipid profile, lipid ratios, and AIP in SH and attempted to correlate thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and AIP in SH. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective analysis of patient records of SH subjects and euthyroid subjects, age, free triiodothyronine, free thyroxine, TSH, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, lipid ratios, and AIP were compared between the two groups. The correlation of TSH and AIP in SH was studied. Spearman's correlation, Mann–Whitney U-test and logistic regression analysis were performed. Results: Triglyceride, triglyceride/HDL-C, and AIP were significantly higher in SH as compared to euthyroid group, but there was no correlation between TSH and AIP in SH. AIP emerged as the significant single factor associated with SH in multiple logistic regressions. Conclusion: The positive association of dyslipidemia and SH indicates a need for regular screening of these patients to enable early diagnosis and treatment of dyslipidemia. Even in patients who have a normal conventional lipid profile, lipid ratios, and AIP have to be calculated for better assessment of atherogenic risk. PMID:27730076

  11. Quantification of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast; implications for risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Stephen G.; Delaney, Keith B.

    2015-04-01

    Our assessment of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast (i.e., the coast of British Columbia) begins with a review of the 1964 tsunami generated by The Great Alaska Earthquake (M9.2) that resulted in significant damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. In particular, the tsunami waves swept up inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and damaged several communities; Port Alberni suffered upwards of 5M worth of damage. At Port Alberni, the maximum tsunami wave height was estimated at 8.2 m above mean sea level and was recorded on the stream gauge on the Somass River located at about 7 m a.s.l, 6 km upstream from its mouth. The highest wave (9.75 m above tidal datum) was reported from Shields Bay, Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii). In addition, the 1964 tsunami was recorded on tide gauges at a number of locations on the BC coast. The 1964 signal and the magnitude and frequency of traces of other historical Pacific tsunamis (both far-field and local) are analysed in the Tofino tide gauge records and compared to tsunami traces in other tide gauges in the Pacific Basin (e.g., Miyako, Japan). Together with a review of the geological evidence for tsunami occurrence along Vancouver Island's west coast, we use this tide gauge data to develop a quantitative framework for tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific coast. In larger time scales, tsunamis are a major component of the hazard from Cascadia megathrust events. From sedimentological evidence and seismological considerations, the recurrence interval of megathrust events on the Cascadia Subduction Zone has been estimated by others at roughly 500 years. We assume that the hazard associated with a high-magnitude destructive tsunami thus has an annual frequency of roughly 1/500. Compared to other major natural hazards in western Canada this represents a very high annual probability of potentially destructive hazard that, in some coastal communities, translates into high levels of local risk

  12. Methylated arsenicals: the implications of metabolism and carcinogenicity studies in rodents to human risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Samuel M; Arnold, Lora L; Eldan, Michal; Lewis, Ari S; Beck, Barbara D

    2006-02-01

    . Furthermore, the evidence strongly supports a nonlinear dose-response relationship for the biologic processes involved in the carcinogenicity of arsenicals. Based on an overall review of the evidence, using a margin-of-exposure approach for MMA(V) and DMA(V) risk assessment is appropriate. At anticipated environmental exposures to MMA(V) and DMA(V), there is not likely to be a carcinogenic risk to humans.

  13. Response of Silicon-Based Linear Energy Transfer Spectrometers: Implication for Radiation Risk Assessment in Space Flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badhwar, G. D.; O'Neill, P. M.

    2001-01-01

    There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed. c2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Response of silicon-based linear energy transfer spectrometers: implication for radiation risk assessment in space flights.

    PubMed

    Badhwar, G D; O'Neill, P M

    2001-07-11

    There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed.

  15. Response of Silicon-Based Linear Energy Transfer Spectrometers: Implication for Radiation Risk Assessment in Space Flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badhwar, G. D.; O'Neill, P. M.

    2001-01-01

    There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed. c2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk Assessment in Preschool Children: Research Implications for the Early Detection of Educational Handicaps.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carran, Deborah T.; Scott, Keith G.

    1992-01-01

    Epidemiological techniques were used to reanalyze studies that had longitudinally tracked preschool or kindergarten children, to determine results of screens for the identification of educationally at-risk children. A paradigm shift is recommended, away from longitudinal studies for predictive validity and toward risk analysis and interpretation.…

  17. Metal release from stainless steel powders and massive sheets--comparison and implication for risk assessment of alloys.

    PubMed

    Hedberg, Yolanda; Mazinanian, Neda; Odnevall Wallinder, Inger

    2013-02-01

    Industries that place metal and alloy products on the market are required to demonstrate that they are safe for all intended uses, and that any risks to humans, animals or the environment are adequately controlled. This requires reliable and robust in vitro test procedures. The aim of this study is to compare the release of alloy constituents from stainless steel powders of different grades (focus on AISI 316L) and production routes into synthetic body fluids with the release of the same metals from massive sheets in relation to material and surface characteristics. The comparison is justified by the fact that the difference between massive surfaces and powders from a metal release/dissolution and surface perspective is not clearly elucidated within current legislations. Powders and abraded and aged (24 h) massive sheets were exposed to synthetic solutions of relevance for biological settings and human exposure routes, for periods of up to one week. Concentrations of released iron, chromium, nickel, and manganese in solution were measured, and the effect of solution pH, acidity, complexation capacity, and proteins elucidated in relation to surface oxide composition and its properties. Implications for risk assessments based on in vitro metal release data from alloys are elucidated.

  18. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials

    EPA Science Inventory

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology ...

  19. Radiation Hormesis: Historical Perspective and Implications for Low-Dose Cancer Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Vaiserman, Alexander M.

    2010-01-01

    Current guidelines for limiting exposure of humans to ionizing radiation are based on the linear-no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis for radiation carcinogenesis under which cancer risk increases linearly as the radiation dose increases. With the LNT model even a very small dose could cause cancer and the model is used in establishing guidelines for limiting radiation exposure of humans. A slope change at low doses and dose rates is implemented using an empirical dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). This imposes usually unacknowledged nonlinearity but not a threshold in the dose-response curve for cancer induction. In contrast, with the hormetic model, low doses of radiation reduce the cancer incidence while it is elevated after high doses. Based on a review of epidemiological and other data for exposure to low radiation doses and dose rates, it was found that the LNT model fails badly. Cancer risk after ordinarily encountered radiation exposure (medical X-rays, natural background radiation, etc.) is much lower than projections based on the LNT model and is often less than the risk for spontaneous cancer (a hormetic response). Understanding the mechanistic basis for hormetic responses will provide new insights about both risks and benefits from low-dose radiation exposure. PMID:20585444

  20. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials

    EPA Science Inventory

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology ...

  1. Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: Implications for Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk analysis perspective by Daniel Krewski and colleagues lays out the long-term vision and strategic plan developed by a National Research Council committee (1), sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with support from the U.S. National Toxicology Progr...

  2. Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: Implications for Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk analysis perspective by Daniel Krewski and colleagues lays out the long-term vision and strategic plan developed by a National Research Council committee (1), sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with support from the U.S. National Toxicology Progr...

  3. Physiological Implications, Performance Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies of Women in Combat-Centric Occupations.

    PubMed

    Greeves, Julie P

    2015-11-01

    Women have historically featured in military conflicts, but were not formally integrated into the military until the 20th century; occupations were mainly restricted to clerical or support roles. An increasing number of occupations have been opened to women and the higher physical demands of combat roles present new challenges. Inherent biological differences between sexes require women to work harder when undertaking the same tasks as men. This is reflected, in part, by the greater risk of musculoskeletal injuries of women observed notably during integrated military training. Gender "neutral" occupational standards, based on the physical requirements of the role, will ensure that women are suitably selected to cope with the demands of military tasks with a minimal risk of injury and to operational effectiveness. Initiatives such as reduced running mileage and single-sex training have contributed to a reduction in lower-limb musculoskeletal injuries, but the risk of injury remains higher in women. Nevertheless, women experience substantial gains in aerobic power and strength with appropriate and targeted training, narrowing the gap in physical performance between the sexes. Evidence-based occupational standards and optimal training programs provide short-term solutions for integrating women in support combat, and indeed direct combat roles.

  4. Health risk assessment of heavy metals in wheat using different water qualities: implication for human health.

    PubMed

    Khan, Zafar Iqbal; Ahmad, Kafeel; Rehman, Sidrah; Siddique, Samra; Bashir, Humayun; Zafar, Asma; Sohail, Muhammad; Ali, Salem Alhajj; Cazzato, Eugenio; De Mastro, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    In the recent years, the use of sewage water for irrigation has attracted the attention of arid and semi-arid countries where the availability of fresh water is poor. Despite the potential use of sewage water in crop irrigation as effective and sustainable strategy, the environmental and human risks behind this use need to be deeply investigated. In this regard, an experiment was carried out under field conditions in Nursery, University College of Agriculture Sargodha, to evaluate the possible health risks of undesirable metals in wheat grains. Wheat variety Sarang was cultivated and irrigated with different combinations of ground (GW) and sewage water (SW). The concentrations of heavy metals (Cr, Cd, Ni, and Pb) and trace elements (Cu, Zn, and Fe) in wheat grains as well as in soil were determined. Moreover, the pollution load index (PLI), accumulation factor (AF), daily intake of metals (DIM), and health risk index (HRI) were calculated. Results showed that the concentration trend of heavy metals was Pb

  5. Decreasing uncertainties in assessing environmental exposure, risk, and ecological implications of nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Wiesner, Mark R; Lowry, Gregory V; Jones, Kimberly L; Hochella, Michael F; Di Giulio, Richard T; Casman, Elizabeth; Bernhardt, Emily S

    2009-09-01

    Determining the fate and interactions of nanomaterials in complex environmental contexts is required to assess exposure and possible harm as well as to inform regulation. As the nanotechnology industry moves up into the rarified air of trillion dollar economics over the next several years (1), the number of simple and complex manufactured nanomaterials (NMs), and their uses, will grow tremendously. Large-scale production of engineered NMs presents the possibility that organisms and ecosystems may be exposed to new levels and qualities of substances with unknown consequences. Naturally occurring nanoscale materials are also ubiquitous in the biosphere, comprising the very building blocks of life and likely playing an important role in ecosystem

  6. Methods for assessing long-term mean pathogen count in drinking water and risk management implications.

    PubMed

    Englehardt, James D; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Loewenstine, Chad; Gadzinski, Erik R; Ayenu-Prah, Albert Y

    2012-06-01

    Recently pathogen counts in drinking and source waters were shown theoretically to have the discrete Weibull (DW) or closely related discrete growth distribution (DGD). The result was demonstrated versus nine short-term and three simulated long-term water quality datasets. These distributions are highly skewed such that available datasets seldom represent the rare but important high-count events, making estimation of the long-term mean difficult. In the current work the methods, and data record length, required to assess long-term mean microbial count were evaluated by simulation of representative DW and DGD waterborne pathogen count distributions. Also, microbial count data were analyzed spectrally for correlation and cycles. In general, longer data records were required for more highly skewed distributions, conceptually associated with more highly treated water. In particular, 500-1,000 random samples were required for reliable assessment of the population mean ±10%, though 50-100 samples produced an estimate within one log (45%) below. A simple correlated first order model was shown to produce count series with 1/f signal, and such periodicity over many scales was shown in empirical microbial count data, for consideration in sampling. A tiered management strategy is recommended, including a plan for rapid response to unusual levels of routinely-monitored water quality indicators.

  7. Caffeine and stress: implications for risk, assessment, and management of hypertension.

    PubMed

    Hartley, T R; Lovallo, W R; Whitsett, T L; Sung, B H; Wilson, M F

    2001-01-01

    Caffeine use is widespread, and its consumption increases during periods of stress. Caffeine raises blood pressure by elevating vascular resistance, and this effect is larger and more prolonged in hypertensive patients than in normotensive. The pressor response to caffeine occurs equally in persons at rest and under stress. The elevated baseline pressures of the hypertensive patient are therefore increased by both caffeine and stress, potentially leading to undesirably high pressures. Such combined effects on blood pressure may potentially confound the evaluation of hypertension, and possibly reduce the effectiveness of antihypertensive therapy. These effects are not abolished by pharmacologic tolerance to caffeine, as tolerance may not be complete with daily intake. The contribution of caffeine's effects to the development of hypertension warrants continued study, and caffeine use by patients merits consideration in terms of assessment and management of this disorder.

  8. New river flow maxima in Northern England, December 2015: Implications for flood hazard and risk assessment?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, James

    2016-04-01

    December 2015 was recently confirmed as the UK's wettest month on record by the Met Office. The most extreme precipitation was associated with three extratropical storm systems, named Desmond, Eva and Frank by the pilot Met Éireann/Met Office "Name our storms" project. In response, river levels reached new maxima at many locations across Northern England. Property damage was widespread, with at least 16,000 homes in England flooded. As with recent predecessors, these events reinvigorated public debate about the extent to which natural weather variability, anthropogenic climate change, increased urbanisation and/or other changes in catchment and river management might be responsible for apparent increases in flood frequency and severity. Change detection and attribution science is required to inform the debate, but is complicated by the short (typically ~ 35 years) river flow records available. Running a large number of coupled climate and hydrological model simulations is a powerful way of addressing the 'attribution question' with respect to the hypothesised climate forcing, for example, albeit one that remains largely in the research domain at present. In the meantime, flood-frequency analysis of available records still forms the bedrock of practice in the water industry; the results are used routinely in the design of new defence structures and in the development of flood hazard maps, amongst other things. In such analyses, it is usual for the records to be assumed stationary. In this context, the specific aims of this research are twofold: • To investigate whether, under the assumption of stationarity, the outputs of standard flood-frequency modelling methods (both 'single-site' and 'spatially pooled' methods) differ significantly depending on whether the new peaks are included or excluded, and; • To assess the sustainability of previous conclusions regarding trends in English river flows by reapplying simple statistical tests, such as the Mann-Kendal test

  9. Therapeutic implications of selecting the SCORE (European) versus the D'AGOSTINO (American) risk charts for cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    PubMed Central

    Gómez-Marcos, Manuel A; Martínez-Salgado, Carlos; Martin-Cantera, Carlos; Recio-Rodríguez, José I; Castaño-Sánchez, Yolanda; Giné-Garriga, Maria; Rodriguez-Sanchez, Emiliano; García-Ortiz, Luis

    2009-01-01

    Background No comparisons have been made of scales estimating cardiovascular mortality and overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The study objectives were to assess the agreement between the Framingham-D'Agostino cardiovascular risk (CVR) scale and the chart currently recommended in Europe (SCORE) with regard to identification of patients with high CVR, and to describe the discrepancies between them and the attendant implications for the treatment of hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Methods A total of 474 hypertensive patients aged 40–65 years monitored in primary care were enrolled into the study. CVR was assessed using the Framingham-D'Agostino scale, which estimates the overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk, and the SCORE chart, which estimates the cardiovascular mortality risk. Cardiovascular risk was considered to be high for values ≥ 20% and ≥ 5% according to the Framingham-D'Agostino and SCORE charts respectively. Kappa statistics was estimated for agreement in classification of patients with high CVR. The therapeutic recommendations in the 2007 European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention were followed. Results Mean patient age was 54.1 (SD 7.3), and 58.4% were males. A high CVR was found in 17.5% using the SCORE chart (25.3% males, 6.6% females) and in 32.7% using the D'Agostino method (56.9% males, 12,7% females). Kappa coefficient was 0.52, and increased to 0.68 when the high CVR threshold was established at 29% according to D'Agostino. Hypertensive patients with high SCORE and non-high D'Agostino (1.7%) were characterized by an older age, diabetes, and a lower atherogenic index, while the opposite situation (16.9%) was associated to males, hyperlipidaemia, and a higher atherogenic index. Variables with a greater weight in discrepancies were sex and smoking. A 32.0% according to SCORE and 33.5% according to D'Agostino would be candidates to receive antihypertensive treatment, and 15.8% and 27.3% respectively to

  10. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  11. Mineral oil saturated hydrocarbons (MOSH) in female Fischer 344 rats; accumulation of wax components; implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Barp, Laura; Biedermann, Maurus; Grob, Koni; Blas-Y-Estrada, Florence; Nygaard, Unni C; Alexander, Jan; Cravedi, Jean-Pierre

    2017-04-01

    Female Fischer 344 rats were exposed to three MOSH mixtures: oils largely below and above C25 (S-C25 and L-C25) and a 1:1 mixture of L-C25 with a wax; doses of 400, 1000 and 4000mg/kg feed were administered during 120days. MOSH were determined by on-line HPLC-GC-FID in liver, spleen, adipose tissue and the carcass. The composition of the hydrocarbons accumulated in the tissues was further analyzed by comprehensive two-dimensional GC (GC×GC). MOSH in the mass range of C26-30 were more strongly accumulated than those between C20-25, which does not support the present classification of MOSH differentiating at n-C25 for risk assessment. Compared to the total of the MOSH, n-alkanes and n-alkyl monocyclic naphthenes were generally enriched in adipose tissue. In liver and spleen, n-alkanes up to C25 were eliminated, but strongly accumulated at around C30. Based on this profile, poor solubility and the melting points, it is hypothesized that crystallization protects these wax components against metabolism and elimination. In the liver, relative retention of n-alkanes decreased again beyond C30, accentuated at high exposure, suggesting reduced absorption. Compared to the animal data, accumulation of n-alkanes from food sources, such as apples, into human tissues seems low, perhaps because of low absorption due to their presence in crystalline form. A series of dominant isoalkanes, accumulated in all tissues analyzed, was characterized, though without proposing a structure. Implications on present regulation of white mineral oil products are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. High levels of mercury contamination in multiple media of the Carson River drainage basin of Nevada: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Gustin, M S; Taylor, G E; Leonard, T L

    1994-01-01

    Approximately 5.5 x 109 g (4.0 x 105) of mercury was discharged into the Carson River Drainage Basin of west-central Nevada during processing of the gold- and silver-rich Comstock ore in the late 1800s. For the past 13 decades, mercury has been redistributed throughout 500 km2 of the basin, and concentrations are some of the highest reported values in North America. This article documents the concentrations of mercury in the air, water, and substrate at both contaminated and noncontaminated sites within the basin and discusses the implications for risk assessment. At contaminated areas, the range of mercury concentrations are as follows: mill tailings, 3-1610 micrograms/g; unfiltered reservoir water, 53-591 ng/l; atmospheric vapor, 2-294 ng/m3. These values are three to five orders of magnitude greater than natural background. In all media at contaminated sites, concentrations are spatially variable, and air and water mercury concentrations vary temporally. The study are in situated in a natural mercuriferous belt, and regional background mercury concentrations in all environmental media are higher than values typically cited for natural background. As a mercury-contaminated site in North America, the Carson River Drainage Basin is unusual for a number of reasons, including its location in a natural mercuriferous belt, high and sustained levels of anthropogenic mercury inputs, long exposure time, aridity of the climate, and the riparian setting in an arid landscape, where biological activity is concentrated in the same areas that contain high levels of mercury in multiple media. Images Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3. Figure 4. Figure 4. Figure 4. PMID:9657709

  13. Dynamic Edematous Response of the Human Heart to Myocardial Infarction: Implications for Assessing Myocardial Area at Risk and Salvage.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Jiménez, Rodrigo; Barreiro-Pérez, Manuel; Martin-García, Ana; Sánchez-González, Javier; Agüero, Jaume; Galán-Arriola, Carlos; García-Prieto, Jaime; Díaz-Pelaez, Elena; Vara, Pedro; Martinez, Irene; Zamarro, Ivan; Garde, Beatriz; Sanz, Javier; Fuster, Valentin; Sánchez, Pedro L; Ibanez, Borja

    2017-10-03

    Clinical protocols aimed to characterize the post-myocardial infarction (MI) heart by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) need to be standardized to take account of dynamic biological phenomena evolving early after the index ischemic event. Here, we evaluated the time course of edema reaction in patients with ST-segment-elevation MI by CMR and assessed its implications for myocardium-at-risk (MaR) quantification both in patients and in a large-animal model. A total of 16 patients with anterior ST-segment-elevation MI successfully treated by primary angioplasty and 16 matched controls were prospectively recruited. In total, 94 clinical CMR examinations were performed: patients with ST-segment-elevation MI were serially scanned (within the first 3 hours after reperfusion and at 1, 4, 7, and 40 days), and controls were scanned only once. T2 relaxation time in the myocardium (T2 mapping) and the extent of edema on T2-weighted short-tau triple inversion-recovery (ie, CMR-MaR) were evaluated at all time points. In the experimental study, 20 pigs underwent 40-minute ischemia/reperfusion followed by serial CMR examinations at 120 minutes and 1, 4, and 7 days after reperfusion. Reference MaR was assessed by contrast-multidetector computed tomography during the index coronary occlusion. Generalized linear mixed models were used to take account of repeated measurements. In humans, T2 relaxation time in the ischemic myocardium declines significantly from early after reperfusion to 24 hours, and then increases up to day 4, reaching a plateau from which it decreases from day 7. Consequently, edema extent measured by T2-weighted short-tau triple inversion-recovery (CMR-MaR) varied with the timing of the CMR examination. These findings were confirmed in the experimental model by showing that only CMR-MaR values for day 4 and day 7 postreperfusion, coinciding with the deferred edema wave, were similar to values measured by reference contrast-multidetector computed tomography. Post

  14. A clinically applicable non-invasive method to quantitatively assess the visco-hyperelastic properties of human heel pad, implications for assessing the risk of mechanical trauma.

    PubMed

    Behforootan, Sara; Chatzistergos, Panagiotis E; Chockalingam, Nachiappan; Naemi, Roozbeh

    2017-04-01

    Pathological conditions such as diabetic foot and plantar heel pain are associated with changes in the mechanical properties of plantar soft tissue. However, the causes and implications of these changes are not yet fully understood. This is mainly because accurate assessment of the mechanical properties of plantar soft tissue in the clinic remains extremely challenging. To develop a clinically viable non-invasive method of assessing the mechanical properties of the heel pad. Furthermore the effect of non-linear mechanical behaviour of the heel pad on its ability to uniformly distribute foot-ground contact loads in light of the effect of overloading is also investigated. An automated custom device for ultrasound indentation was developed along with custom algorithms for the automated subject-specific modeling of heel pad. Non-time-dependent and time-dependent material properties were inverse engineered from results from quasi-static indentation and stress relaxation test respectively. The validity of the calculated coefficients was assessed for five healthy participants. The implications of altered mechanical properties on the heel pad's ability to uniformly distribute plantar loading were also investigated in a parametric analysis. The subject-specific heel pad models with coefficients calculated based on quasi-static indentation and stress relaxation were able to accurately simulate dynamic indentation. Average error in the predicted forces for maximum deformation was only 6.6±4.0%. When the inverse engineered coefficients were used to simulate the first instance of heel strike the error in terms of peak plantar pressure was 27%. The parametric analysis indicated that the heel pad's ability to uniformly distribute plantar loads is influenced both by its overall deformability and by its stress-strain behaviour. When overall deformability stays constant, changes in stress/strain behaviour leading to a more "linear" mechanical behaviour appear to improve the heel

  15. Health status of Pomatoschistus microps populations in relation to pollution and natural stressors: implications for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Guimarães, Laura; Medina, Matias H; Guilhermino, Lúcia

    2012-02-01

    Effects induced on wild populations by recurrent environmental contamination may difficult the ecological risk assessment of punctual pollution events such as oil spills. Here, the issue was addressed by comparing the health status of Pomatoschistus microps populations from four NW Iberian estuaries, using an integrated chemical-biological monitoring. Despite high seasonal variability, the parameters measured discriminated estuaries with different contamination levels and associated biological effects with chemical and abiotic stress. The decreased health status of fish from polluted sites strengthens the need of considering pollution-induced background effects and seasonal variability when assessing impacts and risks of oil and other chemical spills.

  16. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  17. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  18. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes mellitus: comparison of the general Framingham risk profile versus the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts in Arabs--clinical implications.

    PubMed

    Al-Lawati, Jawad A; Barakat, Mohammed N; Al-Lawati, Najla A; Al-Maskari, Masoud Y; Elsayed, Medhat K; Mikhailidis, Dimitri P; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim S

    2013-07-01

    We estimated the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and its clinical implications among 1 110 Omani patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) using 2 different CVD risk tools: the general Framingham risk profile (GFRP) and the joint World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts. The GFRP tool identified higher proportion of patients compared with joint WHO/ISH tool at 10-year CVD risk 10% to <20% and at 20% to <30%. At CVD risk ≥30%, both assessment tools identified similar proportions of patients (22% vs 24%; P=.120). Compared with WHO/ISH charts, the GFRP identified almost double the number of men eligible for aspirin treatment at CVD risk thresholds of ≥10% (86% vs 43%). In women, the proportions were, 66% and 45%, respectively. For statins, the figures were, 60% and 37%, for men and 28% and 36%, for women. In conclusion, the GFRP overestimates the number of patients eligible for primary prevention of CVD compared with the joint WHO/ISH method.

  19. High calcium scores in patients with a low Framingham risk of cardiovascular (CVS) disease: implications for more accurate CVS risk assessment in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Chris J; Legget, Malcolm E; Edwards, Colin; Van Pelt, Niels; Ormiston, John A; Christiansen, Jonathan; Winch, Helen; Osborne, Mark; Gamble, Greg

    2011-05-27

    New Zealand (NZ) patients are recommended to undergo an 'adjusted' Framingham score to assess their cardiovascular (CVS) risk. The current (2009) NZ CVS Risk Guideline does not recommend the use of a 'calcium score' as an additional risk tool, although it has been shown to be powerfully predictive of CVS events above the predictive power of traditional Framingham risk factors. Calcium scores of >400 are very strongly predictive of a future CVS event and give direct evidence of atheromatous disease in the coronary circulation. Identification of people with advanced, premature coronary atheroma would allow early treatment of those who may benefit from more vigorous preventative strategies, including statin therapy. Using a prospectively acquired, comprehensive database we audited the first 1000 patients (7 August 2006 to 28 November 2008) to undergo a 64-slice computed tomographic (CT) cardiac angiogram (GE Light Speed), which included a scan for a 'calcium score', at the Mercy Hospital, Auckland. We excluded 58 patients who had experienced one or more of a previous myocardial infarction (MI) (n=21), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery (n=15), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (n=13) or stroke (n=21) and who therefore already had definite evidence of vascular disease and would be automatically placed in a high risk strata. We calculated each patient's Framingham risk from the original 'Anderson' equation, used by the 1996 NZ CVS risk Guideline, and the 'adjusted' Framingham 5-year CVS risk using the NZ Guidelines Group 2003/2009 recommendations, and then compared this with the observed calcium scores. The mean patient age was 56 (SD 9) years; 364 (39%) patients were female, 82% patients were Caucasian. 41% were current (4.6%) or previous (36%) cigarette smokers, 35% had a history of hypertension, 44% hyperlipidaemia and 5.6% had diabetes mellitus. The percentage of patients at 'low' 5-Year CVS risk (0-10% 5-year risk), using the 1996 and 2003

  20. Tumors and DNA adducts in mice exposed to benzo[a]pyrene and coal tars: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Goldstein, L S; Weyand, E H; Safe, S; Steinberg, M; Culp, S J; Gaylor, D W; Beland, F A; Rodriguez, L V

    1998-01-01

    Current methods to estimate the quantitative cancer risk of complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) such as coal tar assume that overall potency can be derived from knowledge of the concentration of a few carcinogenic components such as benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P). Genotoxic damage, such as DNA adducts, is thought to be an essential aspect of PAH-induced tumorigenesis and could be a biomarker for exposure useful for estimating risk. However, the role of B[a]P and the relationship of adduct formation in tumorigenesis have not been tested rigorously in models appropriate for human health risk assessment. Therefore, we directly compared tumor induction and adduct formation by B[a]P and coal tars in several experimental protocols, including one broadly accepted and used by regulators. We found that B[a]P content did not account for tumor incidences after exposure to coal tars. DNA adducts were found in both tumors and tumor-free tissue and tumor outcomes were not predicted by either quantitation of total DNA adducts or by the DNA adduct formed by B[a]P. These data suggest that risk assessments based on B[a]P content may not predict accurately risk to human health posed by environmental PAH. PMID:9860888

  1. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  2. Risk assessments of lumpy skin diseases in Borena bull market chain and its implication for livelihoods and international trade.

    PubMed

    Alemayehu, Gezahegn; Zewde, Girma; Admassu, Berhanu

    2013-06-01

    Risks of introduction of lumpy skin disease (LSD) through traded Borena bulls to market chain and its consequences were assessed. The assessment used the framework that has been recommended by the World Animal Health Organization (OIE) for risk analysis. Likelihoods for release and exposure were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to very high, whereas the consequences which resulted from disease occurrences were assessed quantitatively. The likelihood of the introduction of LSD to the market chain through traded Borena bulls is found to be high (medium uncertainty), whereas the probability of exposure is very high (medium uncertainty). From the total of 11,189 bulls observed during outbreak investigation of LSD in six sites of feedlot operation in and around Adama, 681(6.1 %) and 204 (1.8 %) bulls were found to be affected and dead with LSD, respectively. The total economic loss due to LSD was estimated to be 667,785.6 USD. The risk estimates for LSD are greater than negligible; therefore, disease prevention and control strategy along the chain should be carefully considered by the Ethiopian veterinary services.

  3. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  4. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  5. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  6. Social Isolation of Youth at Risk: Conceptualizations and Practical Implications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hazler, Richard J.; Denham, Sharon A.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses social isolation as a major factor in determining how youth are increasingly put at risk for both immediate and lifelong difficulties and examines three at-risk situations that counselors face to better understand the origins and implications affecting assessment and interventions. Presents practical implications for how school and…

  7. Verbal Instructions Acutely Affect Drop Vertical Jump Biomechanics--Implications for Athletic Performance and Injury Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Khuu, Steven; Musalem, Lindsay L; Beach, Tyson A C

    2015-10-01

    Biomechanical quantities acquired during the drop vertical jump (DVJ) are used in the assessment of athletic performance and injury risk. The objective was to examine the impact of different verbal instructions on spatiotemporal, kinematic, and kinetic variables commonly included in such assessments. Ten men and 10 women from local varsity and club volleyball, basketball, figure skating, and track and field teams volunteered to participate. The athletes performed DVJs after given instructions to minimize ground contact time (CT), maximize jump height (HT), and synchronously extend the lower extremity joints (EX). Between the CT, HT, and EX conditions, body segment and joint angles were compared together with characteristics of vertical ground reaction force (GRF), whole-body power output, stiffness, and center-of-mass displacement time histories. Verbal instructions were found to influence nearly all of the spatiotemporal, body segment and joint kinematic, and kinetic variables that were statistically analyzed. Particularly noteworthy was the finding that athletic performance indices (e.g., jump height, power output, vertical stiffness, and reactive strength index) and lower extremity injury risk markers (e.g., peak vertical GRF and frontal plane knee angle) were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) between the CT, HT, and EX conditions. The findings of this study suggest that verbal instructions should be controlled and/or clearly documented when using the DVJ to assess athletic performance potential and injury risk. Moreover, practitioners who devise performance enhancement and injury prevention strategies based on DVJ assessments are advised to consider that "coaching" or "cueing" during the task execution could impact conclusions drawn.

  8. The relative sensitivity of freshwater species to antimony(III): Implications for water quality guidelines and ecological risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Obiakor, Maximilian Obinna; Tighe, Matthew; Wang, Zhen; Ezeonyejiaku, Chigozie Damian; Pereg, Lily; Wilson, Susan C

    2017-09-19

    Antimony (Sb) is a pollutant in many jurisdictions, yet its threat to aquatic biota is unclear. Water quality guidelines (WQGs) for Sb are not well established and large uncertainty factors are commonly applied in derivation. We constructed freshwater species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for Sb(III) using available acute toxicity data sourced from temperate and tropical regional studies. A tiered ecological risk assessment (ERA) approach using risk quotients (RQs) was applied for characterisation of risks presented by Sb(III) concentrations measured in the freshwater environment. Multiple parametric models were fitted for each SSD, with the optimal model used to derive the 5% hazardous concentration (HC5), defined as protective of 95% of species, and the corresponding predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). The HC5 values for whole and temperate SSDs were estimated at 781 and 976 μg L(-1) Sb(III), respectively, while the PNECs for both datasets were 156 and 195 μg L(-1) Sb(III), respectively. Due to limited tropical data, a temperate-to-tropic extrapolation factor of 10 was used to estimate an interim PNEC for tropical regions of 20 μg L(-1) Sb(III). Based on published freshwater Sb(III) concentration values across a range of locations, potential ecological risks posed by Sb(III) in some freshwater systems studied would be classified as medium to high risk, but the majority of locations sampled would fall into the low ecological risk category. Our results facilitate the understanding of toxic effects of Sb(III) to freshwater species but also demonstrate that data for Sb ERA are extremely limited.

  9. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  10. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  11. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  12. Merging developmental and criminal career perspectives: implications for risk assessment and risk prediction of violent/sexual recidivism in adult sexual aggressors of women.

    PubMed

    Cale, Jesse; Lussier, Patrick

    2012-04-01

    Currently, a majority of actuarial risk-assessment tools for sexual recidivism contain static risk factors that measure various aspects of the offender's prior criminal history in adulthood. The goal of the current study was to assess the utility of extending static risk factors, by using developmental and criminal career parameters of offending, in the actuarial assessment of risk of violent/sexual recidivism. The current study was based on a sample of 204 convicted sexual aggressors of women incarcerated in the province of Quebec, Canada between April 1994 and June 2000. Semistructured interviews were used to gather information on the offender's antisocial history prior to adulthood, and police records were used to collect data on the criminal career of these offenders in adulthood. For an average follow-up period of approximately 4 years, the violent/sexual recidivism rate for the sample was 23.7%. The results provided support for the inclusion of both developmental and criminal career indicators for the prediction of violent/sexual recidivism. More specifically, recidivists were characterized by an early onset antisocial trajectory and a pattern of escalation of antisocial behavior between childhood and adolescence. The findings suggest that risk assessors should look beyond broad adult criminal history data to include aspects of antisocial development to improve predictive accuracy.

  13. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  14. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  15. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  16. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Treesearch

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  17. The Assessment and Potential Implications of the Myocardial Performance Index Post Exercise in an at Risk Population

    PubMed Central

    Ruisi, Michael; Levine, Michael; Finkielstein, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Background The myocardial performance index (MPI) first described by Chuwa Tei in 1995 is a relatively new echocardiographic variable used for assessment of overall cardiac function. Previous studies have demonstrated the MPI to be a sum representation of both left ventricular systolic and diastolic function with prognostic value in patients with coronary artery disease as well as symptomatic heart failure. Methods Ninety patients with either established coronary artery disease (CAD) or CAD risk factors underwent routine treadmill exercise stress testing with two-dimensional Doppler echocardiography using the standard Bruce protocol. Both resting and stress MPI values were measured for all 90 of the patients. Results Using a normal MPI cut off of ≤ 0.47, the prevalence of an abnormal resting MPI in our 90 subjects was 72/90 or 80% and the prevalence of an abnormal stress MPI in our 90 subjects was 48/90 or 53.33%. The average MPI observed in the resting portion of the stress test for the cohort was: 0.636 with a standard deviation of 0.182. The average MPI in the stress portion of the stress test for the cohort was 0.530 with a standard deviation of 0.250. The P value with the use of a one-tailed dependent T test was calculated to be < 0.05. Conclusion We postulate that these findings reflect that the MPI (Tei) index assessed during exercise may be a sensitive indicator of occult coronary disease in an at risk group independent of wall motion assessment.

  18. Risk Assessment Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-10-01

    2W0 ww) A number of computer-based risk assessment tools were enhanced or creaited to provide Increased access to risk assessment instruments and...produced an extensible authoring tool , SYNTAS, for test instruments that will simplify the data gathering phase of subsequent work. SYNTAS gives DNA...Ultimately it became a computer-assisted software engineerting (CASE) tool capable of producing a wide variety of assessment instruments . In addition, its

  19. Indoor phthalate concentration in residential apartments in Chongqing, China: Implications for preschool children's exposure and risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bu, Zhongming; Zhang, Yinping; Mmereki, Daniel; Yu, Wei; Li, Baizhan

    2016-02-01

    Six phthalates - dimethyl phthalate (DMP), diethyl phthalate (DEP), di(isobutyl) phthalate (DiBP), di(n-butyl) phthalate (DnBP), butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP) and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) - in indoor gas-phase and dust samples were measured in thirty residential apartments for the first time in Chongqing, China. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to estimate preschool children's exposure via inhalation, non-dietary ingestion and dermal absorption based on gas-phase and dust concentrations. Risk assessment was evaluated by comparing the modeled exposure doses with child-specific benchmarks specified in California's Proposition 65. The detection frequency for all the targeted phthalates was more than 80% except for BBzP. DMP was the most predominant compound in the gas-phase (median = 0.91 μg/m3 and 0.82 μg/m3 in living rooms and bedrooms, respectively), and DEHP was the most predominant compound in the dust samples (median = 1543 μg/g and 1450 μg/g in living rooms and bedrooms, respectively). Correlation analysis suggests that indoor DiBP and DnBP might come from the same emission sources. The simulations showed that the median DEHP daily intake was 3.18-4.28 μg/day/kg-bw in all age groups, suggesting that it was the greatest of the targeted phthalates. The risk assessment indicated that the exposure doses of DnBP and DEHP exceeded the child-specific benchmarks in more than 90% of preschool children in Chongqing. Therefore, from a children's health perspective, efforts should focus on controlling indoor phthalate concentrations and exposures.

  20. Assessing urban population vulnerability and environmental risks across an urban area during heatwaves - Implications for health protection.

    PubMed

    Macintyre, H L; Heaviside, C; Taylor, J; Picetti, R; Symonds, P; Cai, X-M; Vardoulakis, S

    2017-08-17

    Heatwaves can lead to a range of adverse impacts including increased risk of illness and mortality; the heatwave in August 2003 has been associated with ~70,000 deaths across Europe. Due to climate change, heatwaves are likely to become more intense, more frequent and last longer in the future. A number of factors may influence risks associated with heat exposure, such as population age, housing type, and location within the Urban Heat Island, and such factors may not be evenly distributed spatially across a region. We simulated and analysed two major heatwaves in the UK, in August 2003 and July 2006, to assess spatial vulnerability to heat exposure across the West Midlands, an area containing ~5 million people, and how ambient temperature varies in relation to factors that influence heat-related health effects, through weighting of ambient temperatures according to distributions of these factors across an urban area. Additionally we present quantification of how particular centres such as hospitals are exposed to the UHI, by comparing temperatures at these locations with average temperatures across the region, and presenting these results for both day and night times. We find that UHI intensity was substantial during both heatwaves, reaching a maximum of +9.6°C in Birmingham in July 2006. Previous work has shown some housing types, such as flats and terraced houses, are associated with increased risk of overheating, and our results show that these housing types are generally located within the warmest parts of the city. Older age groups are more susceptible to the effects of heat. Our analysis of distribution of population based on age group showed there is only small spatial variation in ambient temperature that different age groups are exposed to. Analysis of relative deprivation across the region indicates more deprived populations are located in the warmest parts of the city. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Variations in flood magnitude-effect relations and the implications for flood risk assessment and river management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooke, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    In spite of major physical impacts from large floods, present river management rarely takes into account the possible dynamics and variation in magnitude-impact relations over time in flood risk mapping and assessment nor incorporates feedback effects of changes into modelling. Using examples from the literature and from field measurements over several decades in two contrasting environments, a semi-arid region and a humid-temperate region, temporal variations in channel response to flood events are evaluated. The evidence demonstrates how flood physical impacts can vary at a location over time. The factors influencing that variation on differing timescales are examined. The analysis indicates the importance of morphological changes and trajectory of adjustment in relation to thresholds, and that trends in force or resistance can take place over various timescales, altering those thresholds. Sediment supply can also change with altered connectivity upstream and changes in state of hillslope-channel coupling. It demonstrates that seasonal timing and sequence of events can affect response, particularly deposition through sediment supply. Duration can also have a significant effect and modify the magnitude relation. Lack of response or deposits in some events can mean that flood frequency using such evidence is underestimated. A framework for assessment of both past and possible future changes is provided which emphasises the uncertainty and the inconstancy of the magnitude-impact relation and highlights the dynamic factors and nature of variability that should be considered in sustainable management of river channels.

  2. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  3. Toxicity of the pesticide alpha-cypermethrin to four soil nontarget invertebrates and implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hartnik, Thomas; Sverdrup, Line E; Jensen, John

    2008-06-01

    Alpha-cypermethrin, a synthetic pyrethroid, is used as an insecticide in agricultural settings and is increasingly replacing organophosphates and carbamates because of lower application rates and lower toxicity to mammals. Because very little is known about the acute and chronic toxicity of this compound for soil-living organisms, the present study investigated acute and sublethal toxicity of alpha-cypermethrin for four terrestrial invertebrate species in an agricultural soil from Norway. Bioassays with the earthworm Eisenia fetida, the potworm Enchytraeus crypticus, the springtail Folsomia candida, and the land snail Helix aspersa were performed according to slightly modified versions of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris, France) or International Organization for Standardization (Geneva, Switzerland) guidelines and resulted in median lethal concentrations of greater than >1,000 to 31.4 mg/kg and sublethal no-observed-effect concentrations of 2.51 to 82 mg/kg. A high acute to chronic ratio was found, especially in the earthworms. Interspecies differences in sensitivity may be explained by differences in exposure and differences in metabolization rate. When based on measured pore-water concentrations, terrestrial species overall appear to be approximately one order of magnitude less sensitive than aquatic species. Effect assessments conducted according to European guideline for risk assessment of pesticides reveal that assessments based on acute toxicity tests are not always conservative enough to determine environmentally safe concentrations in soil. Mandatory incorporation of sublethal toxicity data will ensure that in regions with temperate climate, the effects of pesticides on populations of soil-living organisms are unlikely.

  4. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  5. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  6. Occurrence, profile and spatial distribution of organochlorines pesticides in soil of Nepal: Implication for source apportionment and health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Yadav, Ishwar Chandra; Devi, Ningombam Linthoingambi; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan; Shakya, Pawan Raj

    2016-12-15

    Nepal is a landlocked country located between world's two most populous countries-India and China where high level of organochlorines pesticides has been reported from multi-environmental matrices. In this study, we investigated the occurrence, distributions and profile of selected OCP chemicals in surface soil samples (N=72) from four major cities of Nepal. Overall, the sum of total OCPs in soil ranged from 20 to 250ng/g with Biratnagar being the most polluted site in Nepal. DDTs and endosulfans were the most abundant OCP chemicals in soil samples. The concentration of DDTs ranged from 8 to 230ng/g, 8-56ng/g, 8-63ng/g, and 8-27ng/g in surface soil, while endosulfans were in the range of 2.9-3.3ng/g, 2.8-8.7ng/g, 2.8-3.4ng/g, 2.8-3.2ng/g in Biratnagar, Kathmandu, Pokhara and Birgunj, respectively. The isomeric ratio of DDT and their metabolites suggested the ongoing usages of technical DDT as well as dicofol in this region. Lower ratio of α/β-endosulfan indicated past application of endosulfans in Nepal. HCHs were less detected OCPs in soil sample accounting only 4-9% of ∑OCPs. The isomeric ratio of α-/γ-HCH indicated that the HCHs may be originated from mixed source of technical HCH as well as lindane use. Scattered plot of TOC and BC showed they were weakly and positively related with concentration of OCPs in soil. Health risk assessment modeling study of OCPs in soil suggested moderate cancer risk with ingestion being the most potential pathway of OCPs exposure.

  7. Determination of the bioaccessibility of chromium in Glasgow soil and the implications for human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Broadway, Andrew; Cave, Mark R; Wragg, Joanna; Fordyce, Fiona M; Bewley, Richard J F; Graham, Margaret C; Ngwenya, Bryne T; Farmer, John G

    2010-12-15

    The Unified Bioaccessibility Method (UBM), which simulates the fluids of the human gastrointestinal tract, was used to assess the oral bioaccessibility of Cr in 27 Glasgow soils. These included several contaminated with Cr(VI), the most toxic form of Cr, from the past disposal of chromite ore processing residue (COPR). The extraction was employed in conjunction with the subsequent determination of the bioaccessible Cr by ICP-OES and Cr(VI) by the diphenylcarbazide complexation colorimetric procedure. In addition, Cr(III)-containing species were determined by (i) HPLC-ICP-MS and (ii) ICP-OES analysis of gel electrophoretically separated components of colloidal and dissolved fractions from centrifugal ultrafiltration of extracts. Similar analytical procedures were applied to the determination of Cr and its species in extracts of the <10 μm fraction of soils subjected to a simulated lung fluid test to assess the inhalation bioaccessibility of Cr. The oral bioaccessibility of Cr was typically greater by a factor of 1.5 in the 'stomach' (pH ~1.2) compared with the 'stomach+intestine' (pH ~6.3) simulation. On average, excluding two COPR-contaminated soil samples, the oral bioaccessibility ('stomach') was 5% of total soil Cr and, overall, similar to the soil Cr(VI) concentration. Chromium(VI) was not detected in the extracts, a consequence of pH- and soil organic matter-mediated reduction in the 'stomach' to Cr(III)-containing species, identified as predominantly Cr(III)-humic complexes. Insertion of oral bioaccessible fraction data into the SNIFFER human health risk assessment model identified site-specific assessment criteria (for residential land without plant uptake) that were exceeded by the soil total Cr (3680 mg kg(-1)) and Cr(VI) (1485 mg kg(-1)) concentration at only the most COPR-Cr(VI)-contaminated location. However, the presence of measurable Cr(VI) in the <10 μm fraction of the two most highly Cr(VI)-contaminated soils demonstrated that inhalation of Cr

  8. Spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in a drinking water resource: implications for monitoring and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Burnet, Jean-Baptiste; Penny, Christian; Ogorzaly, Leslie; Cauchie, Henry-Michel

    2014-02-15

    Because of their significant public health impact, waterborne Cryptosporidium and Giardia have been monitored in surface water in order to assess microbial quality of water bodies used for drinking water production and/or for recreational purposes. In this context, sampling strategy is of key importance and should be representative enough to appropriately assess the related microbial risk. This, however, requires sound knowledge on the behaviour of both pathogens in water. In the present study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia was explored in the rural Upper-Sûre watershed used for drinking water production in Luxembourg. By subdividing it into three compartments including (i) sub-catchments, (ii) the Sûre River fed by the sub-catchments and (iii) the Upper-Sûre reservoir fed by the Sûre River, parasite distribution was assessed using sampling designs adapted to the hydro-dynamic characteristics of the respective compartments. Results highlighted the high spatial and temporal variability in parasite distribution at watershed scale, as well as the prevalence of Giardia over Cryptosporidium. Besides land use features and catchment characteristics, hydro-climatology appeared to be a major driver of parasite behaviour in the watershed. It introduced a seasonal trend in their occurrence, highest densities being detected during the wet season. Peaks of contamination triggered out by rainfall-induced runoff were further observed in the three compartments. In the Sûre River, Cryptosporidium and Giardia fluxes peaked at 10(9) and 10(10) (oo)cysts.d(-1), respectively, and were discharged into the drinking water reservoir, where they underwent a 2 to 3 log10 removal rate. Despite this, parasite fluxes entering the drinking water treatment plant were still high (10(6) to 10(7) (oo)cysts.d(-1)) and stressed on the need for improved watershed management upstream the water treatment barrier. The catchment-wide analysis described here

  9. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... helpful? Formal name: Cardiac Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common ... on Coronary artery disease: Tests and diagnosis .) The lipid profile is the most important blood test for cardiac ...

  10. Variation in malathion sensitivity among populations of Blanchard's cricket frogs (Acris blanchardi) and implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoskins, Tyler D; Boone, Michelle D

    2016-12-16

    Intraspecific variability in contaminant sensitivity could undermine risk assessments for nontarget organisms such as amphibians. To test how amphibian populations vary in tolerance to anticipated lethal and sublethal exposures to a pesticide, we exposed Blanchard's cricket frogs (Acris blanchardi) from 3 populations across a broad portion of their range to the insecticide malathion. Exposure in mesocosms to a nominal concentration of 1 mg/L (measured concentrations at 1 h and 24 h postaddition of 0.160 mg/L and 0.062 mg/L, respectively), a realistic direct-overspray scenario, reduced survival to metamorphosis by 43% relative to controls and revealed variation in tolerance among populations. Survival ranged from 74% for the most tolerant population to 18% for the least tolerant population, a 4.1-fold difference. Mass at metamorphosis and time to metamorphosis were unaffected. Although malathion reduced zooplankton abundance, it did not alter food resources (periphyton or phytoplankton relative abundance), or a suite of water-quality variables (pH, temperature, and dissolved oxygen). A 96-h time-to-death assay designed to isolate direct, lethal effects also revealed variation in tolerance among populations. Time to death (mean ± standard error) ranged from 2.4 ± 0.18 h for the least tolerant population to 17.8 ± 4.72 h for the most tolerant population, a 7.4-fold difference. However, relative sensitivities of populations differed in the mesocosm and laboratory studies, which differed in exposure concentrations, suggesting that populations tolerant of high concentrations can be more sensitive to lower concentrations. We suggest that direct overspray could reduce larval survival in the field for this species. Studies assessing the role of contaminants in declines or extrapolating to untested populations, especially across large geographical regions, should quantify the range of intraspecific variation. Risk assessors could address

  11. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  12. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  13. Processes influencing chemical biomagnification and trophic magnification factors in aquatic ecosystems: Implications for chemical hazard and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Mackay, Donald; Celsie, Alena K D; Arnot, Jon A; Powell, David E

    2016-07-01

    Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) are widely used in scientific and regulatory programs to assess chemical hazards. There is increasing interest in also using biomagnification factors (BMFs) and trophic magnification factors (TMFs) for this purpose, especially for highly hydrophobic substances that may reach high concentrations in predatory species that occupy high trophic level positions in ecosystems. Measurements of TMFs in specific ecosystems can provide invaluable confirmation that biomagnification or biodilution has occurred across food webs, but their use in a regulatory context can be controversial because of uncertainties related to the reliability of measurements and their regulatory interpretation. The objective of this study is to explore some of the recognized uncertainties and dependencies in field BMFs and TMFs. This is accomplished by compiling a set of three simple food web models (pelagic, demersal and combined pelagic-demersal) consisting of up to seven species to simulate field BMFs and TMFs and to explore their dependences on hydrophobicity (expressed as log KOW), rates of biotransformation and growth, sediment-water fugacity ratios, and extent of food web omnivory and issues that arise when chemical concentration gradients exist in aquatic ecosystems. It is shown that empirical TMFs can be highly sensitive to these factors, thus the use of TMFs in a regulatory context must recognize these sensitivities. It is suggested that simple but realistic evaluative food web models could be used to extend BCF and BAF assessments to include BMFs and TMFs, thus providing a tool to address bioaccumulation hazard and the potential risk of exposures to elevated chemical concentrations in organisms at high trophic levels. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Public Health Implications and Risk Factors Assessment of Mycobacterium bovis Infections among Abattoir Personnel in Bauchi State, Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Sa'idu, A. S.; Okolocha, E. C.; Dzikwi, A. A.; Gamawa, A. A.; Ibrahim, S.; Kwaga, J. K. P.; Usman, A.; Maigari, S. A.

    2015-01-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious and contagious zoonotic disease of domestic animals, wild animals, and humans. It poses a public health threat and economic losses due to abattoir condemnation of infected carcasses during meat inspection of slaughtered animals. Bovine tuberculosis is widespread in Africa including Nigeria affecting both cattle and humans, particularly Northern Nigeria. A prospective survey was conducted from June to August 2013 in the three Zonal abattoirs of Bauchi State, Nigeria. A total of 150 structured close-ended questionnaires were administered to abattoir personnel to assess their level of awareness of bTB. This study was aimed at determining the level of public health awareness, attitude, and practices of abattoir workers of bTB in Bauchi State, Nigeria. There was a statistically significant association between respondents' awareness of bTB and their occupational status, age, and duration of exposure to cattle carcasses (P < 0.05); the odds of being aware of bTB were 9.4, 7.3, and 2.1, respectively. In conclusion, these demonstrate the urgent need for public health authorities to intervene in bTB control. The risk of bTB transmission as indicated by the personnel's practices and awareness levels in Bauchi State could be prevented through the use of protective clothing (PPEs). PMID:26464954

  15. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  16. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  17. Distribution comparison and risk assessment of free-floating and particle-attached bacterial pathogens in urban recreational water: Implications for water quality management.

    PubMed

    Fang, Tingting; Cui, Qijia; Huang, Yong; Dong, Peiyan; Wang, Hui; Liu, Wen-Tso; Ye, Quanhui

    2017-09-14

    The risk of pathogen exposure in recreational water is a concern worldwide. Moreover, suspended particles, as ideal shelters for pathogens, in these waters also need attention. However, the risk caused by the pathogen-particle attachment is largely unknown. Accordingly, water samples in three recreational lakes in Beijing were collected and separated into free-floating (FL, 0.22-5μm) and particle-attached (PA, >5μm) fractions. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) was employed to determine the diversity of genera containing pathogens, and quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to assess the presence of genes from Escherichia coli (uidA), Salmonella enterica (invA), Aeromonas spp. (aerA), Mycobacterium avium (16S) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (oaa). The NGS results showed stable pathogen genera composition distinctions between the PA and FL fractions. Some genera, such as Aeromonas and Mycobacterium, exhibited higher abundances in the PA fractions. qPCR revealed that most of the gene concentrations were higher within particles than were FL fractions. Some gene levels showed correlations with the particle concentrations and lake nutrient levels. Further quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of selected strains (S. enterica and M. avium) indicated a higher health risk during secondary contact activities in lakes with more nutrients and particles. We concluded that suspended particles (mainly composed of algae) in urban recreational water might influence the pathogen distribution and could serve as reservoirs for pathogen contamination, with important management implications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  19. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R. G.; Jusko, M. J.; Clemmons, M. A.

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  20. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  1. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    PubMed

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  2. Assessment of oral bioaccessibility of arsenic in playground soil in Madrid (Spain): a three-method comparison and implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Mingot, Juan; De Miguel, Eduardo; Chacón, Enrique

    2011-09-01

    Three methodologies to assess As bioaccessibility were evaluated using playground soil collected from 16 playgrounds in Madrid, Spain: two (Simplified Bioaccessibility Extraction Test: SBET, and hydrochloric acid-extraction: HCl) assess gastric-only bioaccessibility and the third (Physiologically Based Extraction Test: PBET) evaluates mouth-gastric-intestinal bioaccessibility. Aqua regia-extractable (pseudo total) As contents, which are routinely employed in risk assessments, were used as the reference to establish the following percentages of bioaccessibility: SBET-63.1; HCl-51.8; PBET-41.6, the highest values associated with the gastric-only extractions. For Madrid playground soils--characterised by a very uniform, weakly alkaline pH, and low Fe oxide and organic matter contents--the statistical analysis of the results indicates that, in contrast with other studies, the highest percentage of As in the samples was bound to carbonates and/or present as calcium arsenate. As opposed to the As bound to Fe oxides, this As is readily released in the gastric environment as the carbonate matrix is decomposed and calcium arsenate is dissolved, but some of it is subsequently sequestered in unavailable forms as the pH is raised to 5.5 to mimic intestinal conditions. The HCl extraction can be used as a simple and reliable (i.e. low residual standard error) proxy for the more expensive, time consuming, and error-prone PBET methodology. The HCl method would essentially halve the estimate of carcinogenic risk for children playing in Madrid playground soils, providing a more representative value of associated risk than the pseudo-total concentrations used at present. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  4. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  5. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  6. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  7. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft's .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  8. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  9. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  10. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  11. Falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gallacher, Rose

    2017-02-22

    What was the nature of the CPD activity, practice-related feedback and/or event and/or experience in your practice? The CPD article outlined the causes and consequences of falls for older patients. It discussed the falls risk assessment tools, and falls prevention measures.

  12. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  13. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  14. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment). PMID:27757402

  15. High concentrations of protein test substances may have non-toxic effects on Daphnia magna: implications for regulatory study designs and ecological risk assessments for GM crops.

    PubMed

    Raybould, Alan; Burns, Andrea; Hamer, Mick

    2014-01-01

    Laboratory testing for possible adverse effects of insecticidal proteins on non-target organisms (NTOs) is an important part of many ecological risk assessments for regulatory decision-making about the cultivation of insect-resistant genetically modified (IRGM) crops. To increase confidence in the risk assessments, regulatory guidelines for effects testing specify that representative surrogate species for NTOs are exposed to concentrations of insecticidal proteins that are in excess of worst-case predicted exposures in the field. High concentrations in effects tests are achieved by using protein test substances produced in microbes, such as Escherichia coli. In a study that exposed Daphnia magna to a single high concentration of a microbial test substance containing Vip3Aa20, the insecticidal protein in MIR162 maize, small reductions in growth were observed. These effects were surprising as many other studies strongly suggest that the activity of Vip3Aa20 is limited to Lepidoptera. A plausible explanation for the effect on growth is that high concentrations of test substance have a non-toxic effect on Daphnia, perhaps by reducing its feeding rate. A follow-up study tested that hypothesis by exposing D. magna to several concentrations of Vip3Aa20, and a high concentration of a non-toxic protein, bovine serum albumin (BSA). Vip3Aa20 and BSA had sporadic effects on the reproduction and growth of D. magna. The pattern of the effects suggests that they result from non-toxic effects of high concentrations of protein, and not from toxicity. The implications of these results for regulatory NTO effects testing and ERA of IRGM crops are discussed.

  16. High concentrations of protein test substances may have non-toxic effects on Daphnia magna: Implications for regulatory study designs and ecological risk assessments for GM crops

    PubMed Central

    Raybould, Alan; Burns, Andrea; Hamer, Mick

    2014-01-01

    Laboratory testing for possible adverse effects of insecticidal proteins on non-target organisms (NTOs) is an important part of many ecological risk assessments for regulatory decision-making about the cultivation of insect-resistant genetically modified (IRGM) crops. To increase confidence in the risk assessments, regulatory guidelines for effects testing specify that representative surrogate species for NTOs are exposed to concentrations of insecticidal proteins that are in excess of worst-case predicted exposures in the field. High concentrations in effects tests are achieved by using protein test substances produced in microbes, such as Escherichia coli. In a study that exposed Daphnia magna to a single high concentration of a microbial test substance containing Vip3Aa20, the insecticidal protein in MIR162 maize, small reductions in growth were observed. These effects were surprising as many other studies strongly suggest that the activity of Vip3Aa20 is limited to Lepidoptera. A plausible explanation for the effect on growth is that high concentrations of test substance have a non-toxic effect on Daphnia, perhaps by reducing its feeding rate. A follow-up study tested that hypothesis by exposing D. magna to several concentrations of Vip3Aa20, and a high concentration of a non-toxic protein, bovine serum albumin (BSA). Vip3Aa20 and BSA had sporadic effects on the reproduction and growth of D. magna. The pattern of the effects suggests that they result from non-toxic effects of high concentrations of protein, and not from toxicity. The implications of these results for regulatory NTO effects testing and ERA of IRGM crops are discussed. PMID:25523175

  17. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  18. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  19. Experimental derivation of relative biological effectiveness of A-bomb neutrons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, M S; Nomura, T; Ejima, Y; Utsumi, H; Endo, S; Saito, I; Itoh, T; Hoshi, M

    2008-07-01

    Epidemiological data on the health effects of A-bomb radiation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide the framework for setting limits for radiation risk and radiological protection. However, uncertainty remains in the equivalent dose, because it is generally believed that direct derivation of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons from the epidemiological data on the survivors is difficult. To solve this problem, an alternative approach has been taken. The RBE of polyenergetic neutrons was determined for chromosome aberration formation in human lymphocytes irradiated in vitro, compared with published data for tumor induction in experimental animals, and validated using epidemiological data from A-bomb survivors. The RBE of fission neutrons was dependent on dose but was independent of the energy spectrum. The same RBE regimen was observed for lymphocyte chromosome aberrations and tumors in mice and rats. Used as a weighting factor for A-bomb survivors, this RBE system was superior in eliminating the city difference in chromosome aberration frequencies and cancer mortality. The revision of the equivalent dose of A-bomb radiation using DS02 weighted by this RBE system reduces the cancer risk by a factor of 0.7 compared with the current estimates using DS86, with neutrons weighted by a constant RBE of 10.

  20. Growth-Enhanced Transgenic Coho Salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) Strains Have Varied Success in Simulated Streams: Implications for Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Leggatt, Rosalind A; Sundström, L Fredrik; Woodward, Krista; Devlin, Robert H

    2017-01-01

    Growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish have accelerated growth and could improve production efficiency in aquaculture. However, concern exists regarding potential environmental risks of GH transgenic fish should they escape rearing facilities. While environmental effects have been examined in some GH transgenic models, there is a lack of information on whether effects differ among different constructs or strains of transgenic fish. We compared growth and survival of wild-type coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fry, a fast-growing GH transgenic strain containing a metallothionein promoter (TMT), and three lines/strains containing a reportedly weaker histone-3 promoter (TH3) in hatchery conditions and semi-natural stream tanks with varying levels of natural food and predators. Rank order of genotype size and survival differed with varying environmental conditions, both within and among experiments. Despite accelerated growth in hatchery conditions, TMT fry gained little or no growth enhancement in stream conditions, had enhanced survival when food was limiting, and inconsistent survival under other conditions. Rank growth was inconsistent in TH3 strains, with one strain having highest, and two strains having the lowest growth in stream conditions, although all TH3 strains had consistently poor survival. These studies demonstrate the importance of determining risk estimates for each unique transgenic model independent of other models.

  1. Growth-Enhanced Transgenic Coho Salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) Strains Have Varied Success in Simulated Streams: Implications for Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Sundström, L. Fredrik; Woodward, Krista; Devlin, Robert H.

    2017-01-01

    Growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish have accelerated growth and could improve production efficiency in aquaculture. However, concern exists regarding potential environmental risks of GH transgenic fish should they escape rearing facilities. While environmental effects have been examined in some GH transgenic models, there is a lack of information on whether effects differ among different constructs or strains of transgenic fish. We compared growth and survival of wild-type coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fry, a fast-growing GH transgenic strain containing a metallothionein promoter (TMT), and three lines/strains containing a reportedly weaker histone-3 promoter (TH3) in hatchery conditions and semi-natural stream tanks with varying levels of natural food and predators. Rank order of genotype size and survival differed with varying environmental conditions, both within and among experiments. Despite accelerated growth in hatchery conditions, TMT fry gained little or no growth enhancement in stream conditions, had enhanced survival when food was limiting, and inconsistent survival under other conditions. Rank growth was inconsistent in TH3 strains, with one strain having highest, and two strains having the lowest growth in stream conditions, although all TH3 strains had consistently poor survival. These studies demonstrate the importance of determining risk estimates for each unique transgenic model independent of other models. PMID:28068416

  2. Low dose mixture effects of endocrine disrupters and their implications for regulatory thresholds in chemical risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Kortenkamp, Andreas

    2014-12-01

    Today's chemical exposures are characterised by a widely spread blanket of contamination composed of myriads of chemicals, many of them endocrine disrupters, all at rather low levels. With their focus on considering single chemicals one by one, the approaches used by regulatory bodies worldwide for safety assessments of chemicals cannot keep up with these pollution patterns. A substantial challenge lies in the assessment of combination effects from large numbers of endocrine disrupters and other chemicals, all at low doses. We retrace the development of experimental and conceptual approaches required for assessing low dose mixtures, with an emphasis on work with endocrine disrupting chemicals. We find that nearly 20 years of research has produced good evidence for combination effects at levels around experimental thresholds. One obstacle in deciding on the relevance of this evidence is incomplete information about the range of endocrine-disrupting chemicals that make up combined exposures. These knowledge gaps need to be closed urgently, as is currently discussed under the heading of exposome research.

  3. Physicochemical characteristics of aerosol particles generated during the milling of beryllium silicate ores: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Stefaniak, Aleksandr B; Chipera, Steve J; Day, Gregory A; Sabey, Phil; Dickerson, Robert M; Sbarra, Deborah C; Duling, Mathew G; Lawrence, Robert B; Stanton, Marcia L; Scripsick, Ronald C

    2008-01-01

    Inhalation of beryllium dusts generated during milling of ores and cutting of beryl-containing gemstones is associated with development of beryllium sensitization and low prevalence of chronic beryllium disease (CBD). Inhalation of beryllium aerosols generated during primary beryllium production and machining of the metal, alloys, and ceramics are associated with sensitization and high rates of CBD, despite similar airborne beryllium mass concentrations among these industries. Understanding the physicochemical properties of exposure aerosols may help to understand the differential immunopathologic mechanisms of sensitization and CBD and lead to more biologically relevant exposure standards. Properties of aerosols generated during the industrial milling of bertrandite and beryl ores were evaluated. Airborne beryllium mass concentrations among work areas ranged from 0.001 microg/m(3) (beryl ore grinding) to 2.1 microg/m(3) (beryl ore crushing). Respirable mass fractions of airborne beryllium-containing particles were < 20% in low-energy input operation areas (ore crushing, hydroxide product drumming) and > 80% in high-energy input areas (beryl melting, beryl grinding). Particle specific surface area decreased with processing from feedstock ores to drumming final product beryllium hydroxide. Among work areas, beryllium was identified in three crystalline forms: beryl, poorly crystalline beryllium oxide, and beryllium hydroxide. In comparison to aerosols generated by high-CBD risk primary production processes, aerosol particles encountered during milling had similar mass concentrations, generally lower number concentrations and surface area, and contained no identifiable highly crystalline beryllium oxide. One possible explanation for the apparent low prevalence of CBD among workers exposed to beryllium mineral dusts may be that characteristics of the exposure material do not contribute to the development of lung burdens sufficient for progression from sensitization to

  4. Diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione exposures associated with cigarette smoking: implications for risk assessment of food and flavoring workers.

    PubMed

    Pierce, Jennifer S; Abelmann, Anders; Spicer, Lauren J; Adams, Rebecca E; Finley, Brent L

    2014-05-01

    Diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione inhalation have been suggested as causes of severe respiratory disease, including bronchiolitis obliterans, in food/flavoring manufacturing workers. Both compounds are present in many food items, tobacco, and other consumer products, but estimates of exposures associated with the use of these goods are scant. A study was conducted to characterize exposures to diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione associated with cigarette smoking. The yields (μg/cigarette) of diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione in mainstream (MS) cigarette smoke were evaluated for six tobacco products under three smoking regimens (ISO, Massachusetts Department of Public Health, and Health Canada Intense) using a standard smoking machine. Mean diacetyl concentrations in MS smoke ranged from 250 to 361 ppm for all tobacco products and smoking regimens, and mean cumulative exposures associated with 1 pack-year ranged from 1.1 to 1.9 ppm-years. Mean 2,3-pentanedione concentrations in MS smoke ranged from 32.2 to 50.1 ppm, and mean cumulative exposures associated with 1 pack-year ranged from 0.14 to 0.26 ppm-years. We found that diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione exposures from cigarette smoking far exceed occupational exposures for most food/flavoring workers who smoke. This suggests that previous claims of a significant exposure-response relationship between diacetyl inhalation and respiratory disease in food/flavoring workers were confounded, because none of the investigations considered or quantified the non-occupational diacetyl exposure from cigarette smoke, yet all of the cohorts evaluated had considerable smoking histories. Further, because smoking has not been shown to be a risk factor for bronchiolitis obliterans, our findings are inconsistent with claims that diacetyl and/or 2,3-pentanedione exposure are risk factors for this disease.

  5. Volcanic ashfall accumulation and loading on gutters and pitched roofs from laboratory empirical experiments: Implications for risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hampton, S. J.; Cole, J. W.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T. M.; Broom, S.

    2015-10-01

    Volcanic ash load is dependent on the migration and accumulation of ash on roofing surfaces and guttering, of which limited research has been conducted. This study investigates this knowledge gap through the empirical experimental testing of volcanic ash on variably pitched metal sheet roofs with modern PVC gutter systems, highlighting the relative importance of accumulation, migration, remobilization, saturation, and subsequent load. A testing rig delivered ash onto variably pitched roofs (pitches 15°, 25°, 30°, 35°, and 45°) with two 45° tests involving a wet surface with subsequent ashfall, and the second of ashfall with periods of wetting, followed by wetting until failure. In testing, dry ash on a dry roof accumulates at pitches up to 35°, above this pitch the percentage of ash accumulating reduces with greater percentages infilling guttering and or lost to the ground. With the introduction of a wet roof surface at 45° pitch, adherence of dry ash greatly increases, increasing accumulated ash thickness as compared to dry tests from 8% to 38%. For testing involving periods of wetting at 45° roof pitch, accumulation percentages further increased to 50%. Ash migrating from the roof surface filled guttering more rapidly at greater pitches, which once full resulted in further migrating ash to spill over the front or back gutter lips. Collapse of guttering did not occur during testing, but deformation and bracket detachment did occur at loads > 1 kPa. This study provides data on load calculations on roofing and PVC guttering through the quantification and utilization of relationships between ash fate, pitch, and the influence of water, in the development of two scenarios for both roof and gutter. These two scenarios then enable the estimation of ash accumulation and thus the load and collapse thresholds for roof and gutter at different roof pitch, which could be adopted for volcanic risk modeling or risk management.

  6. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  7. Analysis of Parenchymal Texture with Digital Breast Tomosynthesis: Comparison with Digital Mammography and Implications for Cancer Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Ikejimba, Lynda C.; Bakic, Predrag R.; Troxel, Andrea B.; Conant, Emily F.; Maidment, Andrew D. A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To correlate the parenchymal texture features at digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and digital mammography with breast percent density (PD), an established breast cancer risk factor, in a screening population of women. Materials and Methods: This HIPAA-compliant study was approved by the institutional review board. Bilateral DBT images and digital mammograms from 71 women (mean age, 54 years; age range, 34–75 years) with negative or benign findings at screening mammography were retrospectively collected from a separate institutional review board–approved DBT screening trial (performed from July 2007 to March 2008) in which all women had given written informed consent. Parenchymal texture features of skewness, coarseness, contrast, energy, homogeneity, and fractal dimension were computed from the retroareolar region. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to obtain orthogonal texture components. Mammographic PD was estimated with software. Correlation analysis and multiple linear regression with generalized estimating equations were performed to determine the association between texture features and breast PD. Regression was adjusted for age to determine the independent association of texture to breast PD when age was also considered as a predictor variable. Results: Texture feature correlations to breast PD were stronger with DBT than with digital mammography. Statistically significant correlations (P < .001) were observed for contrast (r = 0.48), energy (r = −0.47), and homogeneity (r = −0.56) at DBT and for contrast (r = 0.26), energy (r = −0.26), and homogeneity (r = −0.33) at digital mammography. Multiple linear regression analysis of PCA texture components as predictors of PD also demonstrated significantly stronger associations with DBT. The association was strongest when age was also considered as a predictor of PD (R2 = 0.41 for DBT and 0.28 for digital mammography; P < .001). Conclusion: Parenchymal texture features are more

  8. Assessment of relative bioavailability of heavy metals in soil using in vivo mouse model and its implication for risk assessment compared with bioaccessibility using in vitro assay.

    PubMed

    Kang, Yuan; Pan, Weijian; Liang, Siyun; Li, Ning; Zeng, Lixuan; Zhang, Qiuyun; Luo, Jiwen

    2016-10-01

    There is limited study to simultaneously determine the relative bioavailability of heavy metals such as Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr(VI), and Ni in soil samples. In the present study, the bioaccessibility of heavy metals using in vitro assay was compared with the relative bioavailability of heavy metals using in vivo mouse model. The bioaccessibility of heavy metals ranged from 9.05 ± 0.97 % (Cr) to 42.8 ± 3.52 % (Cd). The uptake profile of heavy metals in soil and solution samples in mouse revealed that the uptake kinetics could be fitted to a two-compartment model. The relative bioavailability of heavy meals ranged from 34.8 ± 7.0 % (Ni) to 131 ± 20.3 % (Cu). Poor correlation between bioaccessibility and relative bioavailability of heavy metals was observed (r (2) = 0.11, p > 0.05). The relative bioavailability of heavy metals was significantly higher than the bioaccessibility of heavy metals (p < 0.05). The present study indicated that the in vitro digestion method should be carefully employed in risk assessment.

  9. Possible emissions of POPs in plain and hilly areas of Nepal: Implications for source apportionment and health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Yadav, Ishwar Chandra; Devi, Ningombam Linthoingambi; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan; Breivik, Knut

    2017-01-01

    Ambient air is a core media chosen for monitoring under the Stockholm Convention on POPs. While extensive monitoring of POPs in ambient air has been carried out in some parts of the globe, there are still regions with very limited information available, such as some developing countries as Nepal. This study therefore aims to target the occurrence of selected POPs in Nepal in suspected source areas/more densely populated regions. Four potential source regions in Nepal were furthermore targeted as it was hypothesized that urban areas at lower altitudes (Birgunj and Biratnagar located at approximately 86 and 80 m.a.s.l.) would be potentially more affected by OCPs because of more intensive agricultural activities in comparison to urban areas at higher altitudes (Kathmandu, Pokhara located 1400 and 1135 m.a.s.l). As some of these areas could also be impacted by LRAT, air mass back trajectories during the sampling period were additionally evaluated using HYSPLIT. The concentrations of overall POPs were twice as high in plain areas in comparison to hilly areas. DDTs and HCHs were most frequently detected in the air samples. The high p,p'-DDT/(pp'-DDE + pp'-DDD) ratio as well as the low o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratio observed in this study was inferred as continuing use of technical DDT. High levels of ∑26PCBs were linked to proximity to highly urbanized and industrial areas, indicating the potential source of PCBs. The measured concentrations of legacy POPs in air from this study is assumed to represent a negligible health risk through inhalation of ambient air, however, other modes of human exposure could still be relevant in Nepal. The air mass backward trajectory analysis revealed that most of the air masses sampled originated from India and the Bay of Bengal.

  10. Toxicity of binary mixtures of metals and pyrethroid insecticides to Daphnia magna Straus. Implications for multi-substance risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Barata, Carlos; Baird, D J; Nogueira, A J A; Soares, A M V M; Riva, M C

    2006-06-10

    Two different concepts, termed concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA), describe general relationships between the effects of single substances and their corresponding mixtures allowing calculation of an expected mixture toxicity on the basis of known toxicities of the mixture components. Both concepts are limited to cases in which all substances in a mixture influence the same experimental endpoint, and are usually tested against a "fixed ratio design" where the mixture ratio is kept constant throughout the studies and the overall concentration of the mixture is systematically varied. With this design, interaction among toxic components across different mixture ratios and endpoints (i.e. lethal versus sublethal) is not assessed. In this study lethal and sublethal (feeding) responses of Daphnia magna individuals to single and binary combinations of similarly and dissimilarly acting chemicals including the metals (cadmium, copper) and the pyrethroid insecticides (lambda-cyhalothrin and deltamethrin) were assayed using a composite experimental design to test for interactions among toxic components across mixture effect levels, mixture ratios, lethal and sublethal toxic effects. To account for inter-experiment response variability, in each binary mixture toxicity assay the toxicity of the individual mixture constituents was also assessed. Model adequacy was then evaluated comparing the slopes and elevations of predicted versus observed mixture toxicity curves with those estimated for the individual components. Model predictive abilities changed across endpoints. The IA concept was able to predict accurately mixture toxicities of dissimilarly acting chemicals for lethal responses, whereas the CA concept did so in three out of four pairings for feeding response, irrespective of the chemical mode of action. Interaction effects across mixture effect levels, evidenced by crossing slopes, were only observed for the binary mixture Cd and Cu for lethal effects

  11. Comparison of food consumption frequencies among NHANES and CPES children: implications for dietary pesticide exposure and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Riederer, Anne M; Pearson, Melanie A; Lu, Chensheng

    2010-11-01

    Characterizing food consumption patterns among children is critical to dietary pesticide exposure assessment. We have used public release data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the longitudinal Children's Pesticide Exposure Study (CPES) to illustrate the magnitude of potential error introduced by using national-scale, cross-sectional data to estimate the consumption frequencies for smaller cohorts. We focused on foods commonly consumed by children in the target CPES age and income group (3-11 years; annual household income >$75,000) and foods likely to contain organophosphorus or pyrethroid pesticide residues. We defined "percent eaters" as the percentage of study participants who reported eating a particular food in a 24-h period. We computed the weighted percent eaters and 95% confidence limits (CL) for the target age/income group using the NHANES 24-h dietary recall data and compared these with the CPES percent eaters by sampling day and season. For certain foods, particularly the seasonally available produce (for example, apples, peaches/nectarines, melon, grapes, pears, strawberries), soy milk, and peanut butter, the CPES percent eaters fell outside the NHANES 95% CLs on many sampling days. For other foods (for example, orange juice and cow's milk), differences were not readily apparent. Although the differences we observed for certain foods may be, in part, because of measurement error, they also likely reflect seasonal and geographic patterns among the CPES data that the public release NHANES data do not capture. Using NHANES data to estimate pesticide intakes from strawberries, for example, may underestimate the exposure of the CPES children, as significantly more CPES than NHANES children ate strawberries on many sampling days. For other sampling days or other foods, overestimation is also possible.

  12. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    PubMed

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  13. Formaldehyde: assessing the risk

    SciTech Connect

    Hileman, B.

    1984-07-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency has listed formaldehyde as a priority chemical for regulatory assessment under section 4 (f) of the Toxic Substances Control Act. They will give priority consideration to human formaldehyde exposure in two areas because of the large numbers of people involved: clothing workers who handle textiles treated with formaldehyde-based resins and residents of mobile homes that contain formaldehyde-based resins in construction materials such as foam insulation. Much of the scientific data for determining risks associated with formaldehyde is conflicting and ambiguous, due in part to its presence as a normal metabolite in human biochemistry. Although the chemical induces squamous cell carcinoma in rats, epidemiological studies in occupationally exposed groups show no strong evidence of a causal relationship between formaldehyde and cancer. Dose-response data from an experiment sponsored by the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology are used as the primary basis in constructing risk assessments for the human population. The most conservative model and the one chosen by EPA is the linearized multistage model. When the results of this model are examined, most of the groups studied are subject to an unacceptable risk.

  14. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  15. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  16. Risk assessment for safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadlock, Charles R.; Glaser, Peter E.

    The application of probabilistic risk-assessment techniques to space missions is discussed, with a focus on the International Space Station. The types of hazards likely to be caused by random events; design, operational, and management errors; and intentional intervention are examined along with their secondary effects; and the top-level safety requirements defined by NASA are considered. It is suggested that such qualitative stipulations be supplemented with more quantitative measures such as used in the nuclear-power industry; the major features of such quantitative methods are reviewed.

  17. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  18. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  19. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  20. Asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis treated with medical therapy alone: temporal trends and implications for risk assessment and the design of future studies.

    PubMed

    Hadar, Nira; Raman, Gowri; Moorthy, Denish; O'Donnell, Thomas F; Thaler, David E; Feldmann, Edward; Lau, Joseph; Kitsios, Georgios D; Dahabreh, Issa J

    2014-01-01

    The rate of adverse clinical outcomes among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis receiving medical therapy alone can be used to guide clinical decision-making and to inform future research. We aimed to investigate temporal changes in the incidence rate of clinical outcomes among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis receiving medical therapy alone and to explore the implications of these changes for the design of future comparative studies. We searched MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, US Food and Drug Administration documents, and reference lists of included studies (last search: December 31, 2012). We selected prospective cohort studies of medical therapy for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis and we extracted information on study characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes. We performed meta-analyses to estimate summary incidence rates, meta-regressions to assess trends over time, and simulations to explore sample size requirements for the design of future studies comparing new treatments against medical therapy. The main outcomes of interest were ipsilateral stroke, any stroke, cardiovascular death, death, and myocardial infarction. We identified 41 studies of medical therapy for patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis (last recruitment year: 1978-2009). The summary incidence rate of ipsilateral carotid territory stroke (25 studies) was 1.7 per 100 person-years. This incidence rate was significantly lower in recent studies (last recruitment year from 2000 onwards) as compared to studies that ended recruitment earlier (1.0 vs. 2.3 events per 100 person-years; p < 0.001). The incidence rates of any territory stroke (17 studies), cardiovascular death (6 studies), death (13 studies), and myocardial infarction (5 studies) were 2.7, 4.1, 4.6, and 1.8 per 100 person-years, respectively. Simulations showed that future studies would need to enroll large numbers of patients with a relatively high incidence rate under medical

  1. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    PubMed

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  2. Kinetics, Mechanisms and Stereoselective Metabolism of 1,2,4-Triazole Fungicides and the Implications for Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    A major uncertainty in risk assessment is determining the exposure of a chemical stressor to a target organism; a confounding issue is the transformation of the chemical inside the target organism. Increasingly, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming the...

  3. Kinetics, Mechanisms and Stereoselective Metabolism of 1,2,4-Triazole Fungicides and the Implications for Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    A major uncertainty in risk assessment is determining the exposure of a chemical stressor to a target organism; a confounding issue is the transformation of the chemical inside the target organism. Increasingly, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming the...

  4. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    PubMed

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  5. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  6. Multivariate analysis of the impacts of the turbine fuel JP-4 in a microcosm toxicity test with implications for the evaluation of ecosystem dynamics and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Landis, W G; Matthews, R A; Markiewicz, A J; Matthews, G B

    1993-12-01

    , with implications for biomonitoring schemes and ecological risk assessments.

  7. Values in science and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wandall, Birgitte

    2004-09-25

    It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.

  8. General Risk Analysis Methodological Implications to Explosives Risk Management Systems,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    An investigation sponsored by the National Science Foundation has produced as one of its results a survey and evaluation of risk analysis methodologies...This paper presents some implications of the survey to risk analysis and decision making for explosives hazards such as may ultimately be

  9. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment.

  10. Obstetrics Hospitalists: Risk Management Implications.

    PubMed

    Veltman, Larry

    2015-09-01

    The concept of having an in-house obstetrician (serving as an obstetrics [OB] hospitalist) available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week provides a safety net for OB events that many need immediate intervention for a successful outcome. A key precept of risk management, that of loss prevention, fits perfectly with the addition of an OB hospitalist role in the perinatal department. Inherent in the role of OB hospitalists are the patient safety and risk management principles of improved communication, enhanced readiness, and immediate availability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  12. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  13. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area.

  14. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  15. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  17. Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

    PubMed

    Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

    2015-03-01

    Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

  18. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  19. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  20. Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baert, K.; Francois, K.; de Meulenaer, B.; Devlieghere, F.

    A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999).

  1. Assessing risk assessment: genetic testing and screening for complex disease.

    PubMed

    Cox, S M

    2006-11-01

    This paper reports on the presentations from the second session of a 2-day workshop on genetic diversity and science communication, organized by the Institute of Genetics. The four talks in this session (by Sarah Cunningham-Burley, Gail Geller, Michael Hayden, and Theresa Marteau) focused on the topic of risk assessment in the context of genetic testing, screening and preventive medicine for complex disease. Each talk underscored the urgency and importance of evaluating when and for whom risk assessment may be useful. A recurrent theme was the need to attend closely to the diverse ways that risk is constructed, perceived and communicated in a variety of contexts and the significant implications of this for laypersons as well as experts. Although there was no consensus on when genetic risk assessment ceases (or might begin) to be useful, ensuing dialogue between presenters and participants reflected what is perhaps a new and critical engagement with how risk assessment itself is assessed. In response to this impetus, I use the word RISK as a heuristic to identify, extract and amplify four tendencies that appear to advance understandings of risk assessment towards a more explicitly reflexive, interpretive, and situated form of knowing.

  2. Structure Segmentation and Transfer Faults in the Marcellus Shale, Clearfield County, Pennsylvania: Implications for Gas Recovery Efficiency and Risk Assessment Using 3D Seismic Attribute Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Emily D.

    The Marcellus Shale has become an important unconventional gas reservoir in the oil and gas industry. Fractures within this organic-rich black shale serve as an important component of porosity and permeability useful in enhancing production. Horizontal drilling is the primary approach for extracting hydrocarbons in the Marcellus Shale. Typically, wells are drilled perpendicular to natural fractures in an attempt to intersect fractures for effective hydraulic stimulation. If the fractures are contained within the shale, then hydraulic fracturing can enhance permeability by further breaking the already weakened rock. However, natural fractures can affect hydraulic stimulations by absorbing and/or redirecting the energy away from the wellbore, causing a decreased efficiency in gas recovery, as has been the case for the Clearfield County, Pennsylvania study area. Estimating appropriate distances away from faults and fractures, which may limit hydrocarbon recovery, is essential to reducing the risk of injection fluid migration along these faults. In an attempt to mitigate the negative influences of natural fractures on hydrocarbon extraction within the Marcellus Shale, fractures were analyzed through the aid of both traditional and advanced seismic attributes including variance, curvature, ant tracking, and waveform model regression. Through the integration of well log interpretations and seismic data, a detailed assessment of structural discontinuities that may decrease the recovery efficiency of hydrocarbons was conducted. High-quality 3D seismic data in Central Pennsylvania show regional folds and thrusts above the major detachment interval of the Salina Salt. In addition to the regional detachment folds and thrusts, cross-regional, northwest-trending lineaments were mapped. These lineaments may pose a threat to hydrocarbon productivity and recovery efficiency due to faults and fractures acting as paths of least resistance for induced hydraulic stimulation fluids

  3. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

    2008-12-01

    The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

  5. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  6. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  7. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  8. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  9. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  10. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: INDUSTRIAL PROCESS ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Industrial Process Cooling Towers source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Industrial Process Cooling Towers source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  11. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  12. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  13. Sources and the distribution of heavy metals in the particle size of soil polluted by gold mining upstream of Miyun Reservoir, Beijing: implications for assessing the potential risks.

    PubMed

    Li, Qian; Ji, Hongbing; Qin, Fei; Tang, Lei; Guo, Xinyue; Feng, Jinguo

    2014-10-01

    Mining has been carried out upstream of Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, for several decades, and has caused metal emissions to the environment, threatening human health. We conducted a soil survey to assess metal contamination in this area and to determine distribution of heavy metals in the particle size. We attempted to determine the possible sources of the metals and the significance of metals in the fine particle fractions to soil risk assessments. Thirty-four soil samples were collected, and eight samples were partitioned into seven size fractions. Most of the metal concentrations in the soils were higher than the background levels in Beijing, and the metal concentrations and total organic matter (TOC) contents generally increased as the particle size decreased. Each metal except Hg significantly positively correlated with the TOC. The metals in the coarse-grained soils were mainly derived from parent materials, but the metals in the fine fractions were mostly anthropogenic. Statistical analyses showed that there were three metal sources: Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn had anthropogenic sources; Co, Cr, Ni, and V had mixed anthropogenic and natural sources; and As and Be had natural sources. The trace metals were primarily in the clay and fine silt fractions, and they might pose health risks through the inhalation of resuspended soil particles (PM10 and PM2.5). The elevated accumulation factors, enrichment factors, and ecological risk indices for the metals in the fine fractions suggest that risk assessments should be based on the fine particle size.

  14. Fantasy-Driven Versus Contact-Driven Users of Child Sexual Exploitation Material: Offender Classification and Implications for Their Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Merdian, Hannah L; Moghaddam, Nima; Boer, Douglas P; Wilson, Nick; Thakker, Jo; Curtis, Cate; Dawson, Dave

    2016-04-06

    Since the advent of the Internet, convictions for the possession, display, trading, and distribution of child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) have risen steadily, but little is known about their appropriate assessment and treatment, especially concerning their risk of reoffending. It has been suggested that a conceptual distinction of fantasy- versus contact-driven CSEM users might be of merit. Sixty-eight offenders recruited from sex offender treatment providers were assessed via an anonymous computer survey including a variety of clinical and risk-related variables; the findings showed differences in the psychological profiles between CSEM users and contact child sex offenders. Numerical and spatial methods of data analysis were used to identify subgroups of CSEM users; these confirmed the twofold distinction of fantasy- versus contact-driven offending. The spatial representation of participants identified three dimensions as crucial in the classification of these subgroups: direct sexual contact with a minor, possession of fantasy-generating material, and social contact with other users with a sexual interest in minors; potentially differentiating distinct offender subgroups with different risks and needs. The current study informed the development of an empirical model of CSEM users that could aid in the assessment of risk of reoffending and cross-over to contact sex offending.

  15. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  16. Risk Assessment for NOTES

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    Navy System Safety regulations, NAVOSH regulations (Navy Ocupational , Safety and Health ), and the Environmental Safety regulations. 13 NAVSWC TR 91...significant fields lie over navigable waterways). Health No evidence of long-term health effects of EMP exposure to operating employees has been found, even...34 10 NAVSWC TR 91-328 Identify the risks and controls that would achieve the lowest reasonably achievable risk (consider safety, health , performance

  17. Risk in Infancy: Origins and Implications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopp, Claire B.; Kaler, Sandra R.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses the origins of biological risks and their potential consequences for prepregnancy, prenatal, perinatal, and postnatal periods. Presents epidemiological data. Addresses issues of assessment of infant development and interventions provided for infants whose development is at risk. Highlights goals for prevention. A nationally derived data…

  18. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  19. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  20. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: SYNTHETIC ORGANIC ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate. Update 9/19/2006: Proposed Rule June 14, 2006 - Risk Assessment complete September 2005 and only available in the Docket.

  1. Risk assessment of dietary supplements.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan R

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment of dietary supplements shares many of the requirements of that for other chemicals, although there are some important differences. Amongst these is the essential nature of some nutrients so that it may be necessary to balance the need to minimize toxicological risk with the need to avoid deficiency. There may also be limitations on experimental design, in that high doses may not be achievable for nutritional reasons and available human data on toxicological hazard is likely to be very limited. Prior to embarking on a risk assessment the problem needs to be formulated. This involves risk assessors, risk managers and relevant stakeholders. A key decision is whether a risk assessment is necessary and, if so, what is required of the assessment. This will shape the nature and output of the assessment. Risk assessment itself is a scientific process comprising four steps, hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification involves determining the range of toxicological effects that might be caused by the substance, whilst hazard characterization establishes dose-response relationships, toxicological and species relevance of the findings and establishes health based guidance values. Exposure assessment involves predicting or measuring the level, pattern and duration of intake of the substance by exposed individuals. This may require dietary consumption data. Finally, risk characterization is the process whereby all of the prior information is integrated to reach conclusions in a form appropriate to the question posed. The nature of the output can take several different forms, and may be qualitative or quantitative. There are some cross-cutting issues in risk assessment, primarily on uncertainty and variability. The sources of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment should be clearly identified and quantified to the extent possible. Variability requires that the risk assessment should

  2. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  3. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  4. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  5. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  6. Empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial European-scale multimedia fate models: results and implications for chemical risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Armitage, James M; Cousins, Ian T; Hauck, Mara; Harbers, Jasper V; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2007-06-01

    Multimedia environmental fate models are commonly-applied tools for assessing the fate and distribution of contaminants in the environment. Owing to the large number of chemicals in use and the paucity of monitoring data, such models are often adopted as part of decision-support systems for chemical risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of three multimedia environmental fate models (spatially- and non-spatially-explicit) at a European scale. The assessment was conducted for four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and compared predicted and median observed concentrations using monitoring data collected for air, water, sediments and soils. Model performance in the air compartment was reasonable for all models included in the evaluation exercise as predicted concentrations were typically within a factor of 3 of the median observed concentrations. Furthermore, there was good correspondence between predictions and observations in regions that had elevated median observed concentrations for both spatially-explicit models. On the other hand, all three models consistently underestimated median observed concentrations in sediment and soil by 1-3 orders of magnitude. Although regions with elevated median observed concentrations in these environmental media were broadly identified by the spatially-explicit models, the magnitude of the discrepancy between predicted and median observed concentrations is of concern in the context of chemical risk assessment. These results were discussed in terms of factors influencing model performance such as the steady-state assumption, inaccuracies in emission estimates and the representativeness of monitoring data.

  7. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-10-16

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.

  8. Performance of Two Quantitative PCR Methods for Microbial Source Tracking of Human Sewage and Implications for Microbial Risk Assessment in Recreational Waters

    PubMed Central

    Staley, Christopher; Gordon, Katrina V.; Schoen, Mary E.

    2012-01-01

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for assessment of recreational water quality and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant source has been diluted in environmental waters is needed. This study determined the limits of detection and quantification of the human-associated Bacteroides sp. (HF183) and human polyomavirus (HPyV) qPCR methods for sewage diluted in buffer and in five ambient, Florida water types (estuarine, marine, tannic, lake, and river). HF183 was quantifiable in sewage diluted up to 10−6 in 500-ml ambient-water samples, but HPyVs were not quantifiable in dilutions of >10−4. Specificity, which was assessed using fecal composites from dogs, birds, and cattle, was 100% for HPyVs and 81% for HF183. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) estimated the possible norovirus levels in sewage and the human health risk at various sewage dilutions. When juxtaposed with the MST marker detection limits, the QMRA analysis revealed that HF183 was detectable when the modeled risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness was at or below the benchmark of 10 illnesses per 1,000 exposures, but the HPyV method was generally not sensitive enough to detect potential health risks at the 0.01 threshold for frequency of illness. The tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity in the MST methods indicates that HF183 data should be interpreted judiciously, preferably in conjunction with a more host-specific marker, and that better methods of concentrating HPyVs from environmental waters are needed if this method is to be useful in a watershed management or monitoring context. PMID:22885746

  9. Chemical fractionation of arsenic and heavy metals in fine particle matter and its implications for risk assessment: A case study in Nanjing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Huiming; Wang, Jinhua; Wang, Qin'geng; Qian, Xin; Qian, Yu; Yang, Meng; Li, Fengying; Lu, Hao; Wang, Cheng

    2015-02-01

    A four-step sequential extraction procedure was used to study the chemical fractionation of As and heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) collected from Nanjing, China. The mass concentrations of most PM2.5 samples exceeded the 24 h standard (75 μg/m3) recommended by the new national ambient air quality standard of China. The most abundant elements were Fe, Zn and Pb, while As and Cd were present at the lowest concentrations. As, Cd, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn were mostly present in the two mobile fractions, including the soluble and exchangeable fraction (F1), and carbonates, oxides and reducible fraction (F2). Fe had the highest proportion present in the residual fraction (F4). Relatively high proportions of the metals Ni and Cr were present in the oxidizable and sulfidic fraction (F3). High proportions of Zn, As and Cu and lower proportions of Cd, Cr and Fe were present in the potentially mobile phases. The enrichment factor, contamination factor and risk assessment code were calculated to analyze the main sources and assess the environmental risks of the metals in PM2.5. The carcinogenic risks of As, Cd, Ni and Pb were all lower than the accepted criterion of 10-6, whereas the carcinogenic risks of Cr for children and As and Cr for adults were higher than 10-6. The non-carcinogenic health risk of As and heavy metals because of PM2.5 exposure for children and adults were lower than but close to the safe level of 1.

  10. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  11. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  12. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  13. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  14. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  15. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  16. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: HALOGENATED SOLVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Halogenated Solvent Degreasing Facilities. These assessments utilize existing models and d...

  17. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  18. Use of quantitative microbial risk assessment when investigating foodborne illness outbreaks: the example of a monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium 4,5,12:i:- outbreak implicating beef burgers.

    PubMed

    Guillier, Laurent; Danan, Corinne; Bergis, Hélène; Delignette-Muller, Marie-Laure; Granier, Sophie; Rudelle, Sylvie; Beaufort, Annie; Brisabois, Anne

    2013-09-16

    A major community outbreak of salmonellosis occurred in France in October 2010. Classical epidemiological investigations led to the identification of beef burgers as the cause of the outbreak and the presence of the emerging monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium 4,5,12:i:-. The objective of this study was to understand the events that led to this large outbreak, that is to say, what are the contributing factors associated with consumer exposure to Salmonella. To this end, intensive microbiological investigations on several beef burgers were conducted and a risk assessment model was built. The microbiological results confirm the presence of Salmonella in all analysed frozen burgers at high levels of contamination above 1000 MPN/g. These results in frozen burgers combined with a model of thermal destruction were used to estimate the dose ingested by the exposed persons. Most people that consumed cooked beef burgers were exposed from 1.6 to 3.1 log₁₀ (MPN). The number of sick people predicted with a dose-response relationship for Salmonella is consistent with the observed number of salmonellosis cases. The very high initial contamination level in frozen beef burgers is the primary cause of this large outbreak rather than bad cooking practices. Intensive investigations, modelling of the initial contamination and quantitative exposure and risk assessments are complementary to epidemiological investigation. They can be valuable elements for the assessment of missing information or the identification of the primary causes of outbreaks.

  19. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  20. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  1. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  2. Groundwater abstraction pollution risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lytton, L; Howe, S; Sage, R; Greenaway, P

    2003-01-01

    A generic groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology has been developed to enable the evaluation and ranking of the potential risk of pollution to groundwater abstractions. The ranking can then be used to prioritise risk management or mitigation procedures in a robust and quantifiable framework and thus inform business investment decisions. The risk assessment consider the three components of the pollution transport model: source-pathway-receptor. For groundwater abstractions these correspond to land use (with associated pollutants and shallow subsurface characteristics), aquifer and the abstraction borehole. An hierarchical approach was chosen to allow the risk assessment to be successfully carried out with different quality data for different parts of the model. The 400-day groundwater protection zone defines the catchment boundary that form the spatial limit of the land use audit for each receptor. A risk score is obtained for each land use (potential pollution source) within the catchment. These scores are derived by considering the characteristics (such as load, persistence and toxicity) of all pollutants pertaining to each land use, their on-site management and the potential for the unsaturated subsurface to attenuate their effects in the event of a release. Risk scores are also applied to the aquifer characteristics (as pollutant pathway) and to the abstraction borehole (as pollutant receptor). Each risk score is accompanied by an uncertainty score which provides a guide to the confidence in the data used to compile the risk assessment. The application of the methodology has highlighted a number of problems in this type of work and results of initial case studies are being used to trial alternative scoring methods and a more simplified approach to accelerate the process of pollution risk assessment.

  3. Neurotoxicity in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, B.

    1988-01-01

    Neurotoxicity is a property of many metals, even those deemed biologically essential. Manganese, one of the essential elements, can induce a syndrome displaying aspects of both Parkinsonism and dystonia, but accompanied, as well, by psychological abnormalities. At low exposure levels, however, neurotoxicity may be detectable with psychological tests. Mercury vapor exposure also induces neurological signs, psychological aberrations, and subtle evidence of dysfunction on psychological tests. Methylmercury and lead are particularly toxic to the developing brain. The most recent research indicates that psychological testing may uncover deficits even in children showing no evidence of impairment. Because of their special features, neurotoxic endpoints may have to be evaluated for risks by a process that diverges significantly from the standard program based on carcinogenicity.

  4. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  5. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  6. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  7. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    PubMed

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  8. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  9. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  10. Risk Assessment of Fluoride Intake from Tea in the Republic of Ireland and its Implications for Public Health and Water Fluoridation

    PubMed Central

    Waugh, Declan T.; Potter, William; Limeback, Hardy; Godfrey, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The Republic of Ireland (RoI) is the only European Country with a mandatory national legislation requiring artificial fluoridation of drinking water and has the highest per capita consumption of black tea in the world. Tea is a hyperaccumulator of fluoride and chronic fluoride intake is associated with multiple negative health outcomes. In this study, fifty four brands of the commercially available black tea bag products were purchased and the fluoride level in tea infusions tested by an ion-selective electrode method. The fluoride content in all brands tested ranged from 1.6 to 6.1 mg/L, with a mean value of 3.3 mg/L. According to our risk assessment it is evident that the general population in the RoI is at a high risk of chronic fluoride exposure and associated adverse health effects based on established reference values. We conclude that the culture of habitual tea drinking in the RoI indicates that the total cumulative dietary fluoride intake in the general population could readily exceed the levels known to cause chronic fluoride intoxication. Evidence suggests that excessive fluoride intake may be contributing to a wide range of adverse health effects. Therefore from a public health perspective, it would seem prudent and sensible that risk reduction measures be implemented to reduce the total body burden of fluoride in the population. PMID:26927146

  11. Risk Assessment of Fluoride Intake from Tea in the Republic of Ireland and its Implications for Public Health and Water Fluoridation.

    PubMed

    Waugh, Declan T; Potter, William; Limeback, Hardy; Godfrey, Michael

    2016-02-26

    The Republic of Ireland (RoI) is the only European Country with a mandatory national legislation requiring artificial fluoridation of drinking water and has the highest per capita consumption of black tea in the world. Tea is a hyperaccumulator of fluoride and chronic fluoride intake is associated with multiple negative health outcomes. In this study, fifty four brands of the commercially available black tea bag products were purchased and the fluoride level in tea infusions tested by an ion-selective electrode method. The fluoride content in all brands tested ranged from 1.6 to 6.1 mg/L, with a mean value of 3.3 mg/L. According to our risk assessment it is evident that the general population in the RoI is at a high risk of chronic fluoride exposure and associated adverse health effects based on established reference values. We conclude that the culture of habitual tea drinking in the RoI indicates that the total cumulative dietary fluoride intake in the general population could readily exceed the levels known to cause chronic fluoride intoxication. Evidence suggests that excessive fluoride intake may be contributing to a wide range of adverse health effects. Therefore from a public health perspective, it would seem prudent and sensible that risk reduction measures be implemented to reduce the total body burden of fluoride in the population.

  12. Effects of drying and comminution type on the quantification of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) in a homogenised gasworks soil and the implications for human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Beriro, Darren J; Vane, Christopher H; Cave, Mark R; Nathanail, C Paul

    2014-09-01

    This research investigates the effect of nine physical treatment types comprising a serial combination of three drying (air, freeze and oven) and two comminution (milling and sieving) methods on the quantification of PAH in a soil sample from a former gasworks. Results show that treatment type has a significant effect on PAH concentration (p⩽0.05). Naphthalene, 1-methylnaphthalene and 2-methylnaphthalene concentrations were significantly higher for air drying and freeze drying treatments than for oven drying. It is suggested that naphthalene and similarly volatile PAH losses were greater for oven drying due to the application of fanned warm air which is thought to cause volatilisation. Analytical precision was significantly improved for milled samples compared with sieved samples. The reason milling results in greater precision is assigned to the improved solvent extraction efficiency when natural grain size is altered due to crushing. The analytical data were compared to residential generic assessment criteria (GAC) used for risk-based land management. It was shown that the naphthalene GAC was lower than all freeze drying and air drying concentrations but was within the oven drying concentration range, illustrating that a false negative could be concluded during risk evaluation is oven dried data were used. Overall, it is recommended that air drying or freeze drying is a better choice than oven drying if the quantification of low molecular weight PAH forms an important objective of sample characterisation for risk-based land management, otherwise freeze drying and milling is recommended.

  13. Assessing the Risks of West Nile Virus–Infected Mosquitoes from Transatlantic Aircraft: Implications for Disease Emergence in the United Kingdom

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Eleanor B.E.; Adkin, Amie; Fooks, Anthony R.; Stephenson, Ben; Medlock, Jolyon M.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract The number of West Nile virus (WNV)–infected mosquitoes aboard aircraft from the United States that arrive in the United Kingdom each summer was determined using a quantitative risk assessment. In the worst-case scenario, when WNV levels in mosquitoes are high (at epidemic levels) the probability of at least one WNV-infected mosquito being introduced into the United Kingdom was predicted to be 0.99. During these periods, a mean of 5.2 infected mosquitoes were estimated to be aboard flights from the United States to the United Kingdom during May to October, with 90% certainty that the exact value lies between one and ten mosquitoes. Heathrow airport was predicted to receive the majority of the infected mosquitoes (72.1%). Spatial analysis revealed the region surrounding Heathrow satisfies the criteria for potential WNV exposure as both WNV-competent mosquitoes and susceptible wild bird species are present. This region is, therefore, recommended for targeted, risk-based surveillance of WNV-infected mosquitoes in addition to an increased awareness of the risks to horses, birds and humans. PMID:22217181

  14. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  15. Guidelines for neurotoxicity risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    These Guidelines describe the principles, concepts, and procedures that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will follow in evaluating data on potential neurotoxicity associated with exposure to environmental toxicants. The procedures outlined are intended to help develop a sound scientific basis for neurotoxicity risk assessment, promote consistency in the Agency`s assessment of toxic effects on the nervous system, and inform others of the approaches used by the Agency in those assessments.

  16. An evaluation of the "GGP" personal samplers under semi-volatile aerosols: sampling losses and their implication on occupational risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dragan, George C; Breuer, Dietmar; Blaskowitz, Morten; Karg, Erwin; Schnelle-Kreis, Jürgen; Arteaga-Salas, Jose M; Nordsieck, Hermann; Zimmermann, Ralf

    2015-02-01

    Semi-volatile (SV) aerosols still represent an important challenge to occupational hygienists due to toxicological and sampling issues. Particularly problematic is the sampling of hazardous SV that are present in both particulate and vapour phases at a workplace. In this study we investigate the potential evaporation losses of SV aerosols when using off-line filter-adsorber personal samplers. Furthermore, we provide experimental data showing the extent of the evaporation loss that can bias the workplace risk assessment. An experimental apparatus consisting of an aerosol generator, a flow tube and an aerosol monitoring and sampling system was set up inside a temperature controlled chamber. Aerosols from three n-alkanes were generated, diluted with nitrogen and sampled using on-line and off-line filter-adsorber methods. Parallel measurements using the on-line and off-line methods were conducted to quantify the bias induced by filter sampling. Additionally, two mineral oils of different volatility were spiked on filters and monitored for evaporation depending on the samplers flow rate. No significant differences between the on-line and off-line methods were detected for the sum of particles and vapour. The filter-adsorber method however tended to underestimate up to 100% of the particle mass, especially for the more volatile compounds and lower concentrations. The off-line sampling method systematically returned lower particle and higher vapour values, an indication for particle evaporation losses. We conclude that using only filter sampling for the assessment of semi-volatiles may considerably underestimate the presence of the particulate phase due to evaporation. Thus, this underestimation can have a negative impact on the occupational risk assessment if the evaporated particle mass is no longer quantified.

  17. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  18. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  19. Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

    2017-04-01

    Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

  20. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  1. Risk Assessment of Patients Undergoing Transfemoral Aortic Valve Implantation upon Admission for Post-Interventional Intensive Care and Surveillance: Implications on Short- and Midterm Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Al-Rashid, Fadi; Kahlert, Philipp; Selge, Friederike; Hildebrandt, Heike; Patsalis, Polycarpos-Christos; Totzeck, Matthias; Mummel, Petra; Rassaf, Tienush; Jánosi, Rolf Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Background Several studies have found that standard risk scores inaccurately reflect risk in TAVI cohorts. The assessment of mortality risk upon post-interventional ICU admission is important to optimizing clinical management. This study sought to determine outcomes and factors affecting mortality in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), and to analyze and compare the predictive values of SAPS II and EuroSCORE. Methods and Findings 214 consecutive patients treated with transfemoral TAVI (2006–2012) admitted to the ICU in an academic tertiary-care university hospital, were included in this retrospective data analysis. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 7%. Non-survivors at 30-days and survivors showed differences in the rates of catecholamine therapy upon ICU admission (93 vs. 29%; p<0.001), stroke (20 vs. 1%;p<0.001), sepsis (27 vs. 2%;p<0.001), kidney injury (83 vs. 56%; log-rank p<0.001), catecholamine therapy (88 vs. 61%;log-rank p<0.001) and vascular complications (60 vs. 17%; p<0.001). Mean SAPS II score and predicted mortality were higher in non-survivors (38.1±7.0 vs. 29.9±6.2;p<0.001 and 23.1±11.7 vs. 10.5±8.2;p<0.001, retrospectively), whereas the logistic EuroSCORE could not discriminate between the groups (p = 0.555). Among the biochemical parameters, the maximum values of creatinine, procalcitonin, and troponin I during the first 48 h after ICU admission were significantly higher in non-survivors. Multivariate analysis of baseline characteristics and complications associated with two-year mortality showed no significant results. Conclusions The SAPS II is a good tool for estimating ICU mortality immediately after performing the TAVI procedure and provides valuable information for other known predictors of mortality. PMID:27880819

  2. Risk assessment of non-dietary exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) via house PM2.5, TSP and dust and the implications from human hair

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Huang, Min-juan; Chan, Chuen-Yu; Cheung, Kwai Chung; Wong, Ming Hung

    2013-07-01

    To evaluate the cancer risk due to non-dietary PAHs exposure in home environment (inhalation and ingestion), exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of PM2.5, total suspend particles (TSP) and dust in homes at two urban centers of Pearl River Delta were assessed. House PM2.5 bound PAHs in Guangzhou (GZ) ranged from 10.0 to 61.9 ng m-3 and 0.72 to 8.15 ng m-3 in Hong Kong (HK). PAH profiles found in PM2.5, TSP and dust were different than that in hair (dominated by Nap and Phe). Pyr and Flu in house dust significantly correlated with that in hair (r = 0.69; 0.55, p < 0.05) but no correlation was found between PAHs in hair and PM2.5. High correlation coefficients (r2 = 0.97/0.95, p < 0.01) were noted between dibenzo(a,h)anthracene (DBA) and Toxicity Equivalent Concentrations (TEQs) of dust and PM2.5. The lung cancer risks based on PM2.5 bound PAHs exposure in houses of GZ (10-5-10-4) were significantly higher than those of HK (10-6-10-5), which were also significantly higher than the cancer risks associated with house dust intake (10-7-10-5) in GZ. PAHs exposure via non-dietary route (PM2.5 and dust) was found to be 1-3 times higher than fish consumption for children and contributed to 52-76% of total PAHs intake for children and 24-50% for adults in GZ.

  3. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  4. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  5. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  7. Command hallucinations, compliance, and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hersh, K; Borum, R

    1998-01-01

    Command hallucinations are auditory hallucinations that instruct a patient to act in specific ways; these commands can range in seriousness from innocuous to life-threatening. This article summarizes two areas of research regarding command hallucinations: rates of compliance with command hallucinations; and factors associated with compliance. Researchers have reported rates of compliance ranging from 39.2 percent to 88.5 percent. Compliance has not been consistently related to dangerousness of commands. Instead, research suggests that Individuals are more likely to comply with commands if they recognize the hallucinated voice and if their hallucinations are related to a delusion. Implications for risk assessment are discussed in light of the research.

  8. Language Assessment of Asian Students: Problems & Implications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Ovid K.

    The problems and implications of language assessment of Asian students are examined. The theories of Jean Piaget and Jerome Bruner concerning the relationship between language and cognition are explored. Cognitive operations are assumed by many educators to be related to academic achievement. Culturally, Asians favor the Piagetian interpretation…

  9. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  10. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  11. Isolation and characterization of mercury-resistant bacteria from sediments of Tagus Estuary (Portugal): implications for environmental and human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Figueiredo, Neusa L L; Canário, João; Duarte, Aida; Serralheiro, Maria Luísa; Carvalho, Cristina

    2014-01-01

    Mercury (Hg) contamination of aquatic systems has been recognized as a global and serious problem affecting both human and environmental health. In the aquatic ecosystems, mercurial compounds are microbiologically transformed with methylation responsible for generation of methylmercury (MeHg) and subsequent biomagnification in food chain, consequently increasing the risk of poisoning for humans and wildlife. High levels of Hg, especially MeHg, are known to exist in Tagus Estuary as a result of past industrial activities. The aim of this study was to isolate and characterize Hg-resistant bacteria from Tagus Estuary. Mercury-resistant (Hg-R) bacteria were isolated from sediments of two hotspots (Barreiro and North Channel) and one reserve area (Alcochete). Mercury contamination in these areas was examined and bacterial susceptibility to Hg compounds evaluated by determination of minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC). The isolates characterization was based on morphological observation and biochemical testing. Bacteria characteristics, distribution, and Hg resistance levels were compared with metal levels. Barreiro and North Channel were highly contaminated with Hg, containing 126 and 18 μg/g total Hg, respectively, and in Alcochete, contamination was lower at 0.87 μg/g total Hg. Among the isolates there were aerobic and anaerobic bacteria, namely, sulfate-reducing bacteria, and Hg resistance levels ranged from 0.16 to 140 μg/ml for Hg(2+) and from 0.02 to 50.1 μg/ml for MeHg. The distribution of these bacteria and the resistance levels were consistent with Hg contamination along the depth of the sediments. Overall, results show the importance of the characterization of Tagus Estuary bacteria for ecological and human health risk assessment.

  12. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  13. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  14. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  15. Genomic variation in the MMP-1 promoter influences estrogen receptor mediated activity in a mechanically activated environment: potential implications for microgravity risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaler, John; Myers, Ken; Lu, Ting; Hart, David

    examine the potential impact of the 1G/2G SNP on the cellular response to mechanical loading. HIG-82 cells are estrogen receptor (ER) negative and were transiently transfected with SV40 expression vectors for either ER-α or ER-β isoforms. Cells grown on glass slides were also co-transfected with either a 1G or 2G MMP-1 promoter-luciferase construct. Transfected cells were subjected to dynamic shear stress in a Flexcell Streamer Shear Stress Device. The dynamic loading regime was 0.5 Hz, 10 dyn/cm2 shear for 1 minute followed by 14 minutes rest and repeated for 8 hrs. A Promega Dual Luciferase Reporter Assay System was used to assess MMP-1 promoter activity. Results: Shear stress loading increased both 1G and 2G MMP-1 promoter activity compared to unloaded controls, however the 2G promoter had significantly higher rates of expression than the 1G promoter across all loading regimes and ER co-transfections. Transfection with ER-β resulted in higher MMP-1 promoter activity than that in cells expressing ER-α or in ER-neg cells. Conclusions: Specific genomic variations can lead to differences in cellular responses to changes in mechanical loading environments such as are encountered in microgravity environments or earth-based analogs. These genomic differences may predispose individuals to greater risk of bone loss. It is important to understand the combined effects of mechanical loading, genetic variation and sex hormones on bone maintenance so that risks can be identified for microgravity or analog environments, and specific interventions developed to counteract such risk or even exclude some individuals from prolonged space environments due to the extent of the risk.

  16. Relationships among total recoverable and reactive metals and metalloid in St. Lawrence River sediment: bioaccumulation by chironomids and implications for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Desrosiers, Mélanie; Gagnon, Christian; Masson, Stéphane; Martel, Louis; Babut, Marc P

    2008-01-15

    The availability and bioaccumulation of metals and metalloids, and the geochemical interactions among them, are essential to developing an ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework and determining threshold concentrations for these elements. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships among total recoverable and reactive metals and metalloid in sediment and their bioaccumulation by chironomids. In the fall of 2004 and 2005, 58 stations located in the three fluvial lakes of the St. Lawrence River and its largest harbour area in Montreal, Canada, were sampled. Nine total recoverable and reactive metals (Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) and one metalloid (As) were measured in whole sediment using two extraction methods: HCl/HNO(3) and HCl 1N, respectively. The bioaccumulation of six metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) and As by chironomids was evaluated in a subset of 22 stations. Strong collinearities were observed between some total recoverable or reactive metal concentrations in sediment; two principal clusters, including collinear metals, were obtained. The first one included metals of mainly geological origin (Al, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni), while the second one included As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn, which likely derive mainly from point sources of anthropogenic contamination. Each element also showed strong collinearity between their total recoverable and reactive forms (0.65< or =r < or =0.97). We can conclude that both chemical forms are equivalent for use in statistical models needed to explain biological responses and also in screening risk assessment. However, these relationships are not always proportional. Lower availability percentages were observed for Cd, Cu and Zn in the highly mixed-contaminated area of the Montreal Harbour, even though concentrations in sediment were higher. We observed a significant correlation (0.50< or =r < or =0.56) between concentrations in chironomids and concentrations of both total recoverable and reactive Cr and Pb in

  17. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  18. Variability in P-Glycoprotein Inhibitory Potency (IC50) Using Various in Vitro Experimental Systems: Implications for Universal Digoxin Drug-Drug Interaction Risk Assessment Decision Criteria

    PubMed Central

    Bentz, Joe; O’Connor, Michael P.; Bednarczyk, Dallas; Coleman, JoAnn; Lee, Caroline; Palm, Johan; Pak, Y. Anne; Perloff, Elke S.; Reyner, Eric; Balimane, Praveen; Brännström, Marie; Chu, Xiaoyan; Funk, Christoph; Guo, Ailan; Hanna, Imad; Herédi-Szabó, Krisztina; Hillgren, Kate; Li, Libin; Hollnack-Pusch, Evelyn; Jamei, Masoud; Lin, Xuena; Mason, Andrew K.; Neuhoff, Sibylle; Patel, Aarti; Podila, Lalitha; Plise, Emile; Rajaraman, Ganesh; Salphati, Laurent; Sands, Eric; Taub, Mitchell E.; Taur, Jan-Shiang; Weitz, Dietmar; Wortelboer, Heleen M.; Xia, Cindy Q.; Xiao, Guangqing; Yabut, Jocelyn; Yamagata, Tetsuo; Zhang, Lei

    2013-01-01

    A P-glycoprotein (P-gp) IC50 working group was established with 23 participating pharmaceutical and contract research laboratories and one academic institution to assess interlaboratory variability in P-gp IC50 determinations. Each laboratory followed its in-house protocol to determine in vitro IC50 values for 16 inhibitors using four different test systems: human colon adenocarcinoma cells (Caco-2; eleven laboratories), Madin-Darby canine kidney cells transfected with MDR1 cDNA (MDCKII-MDR1; six laboratories), and Lilly Laboratories Cells—Porcine Kidney Nr. 1 cells transfected with MDR1 cDNA (LLC-PK1-MDR1; four laboratories), and membrane vesicles containing human P-glycoprotein (P-gp; five laboratories). For cell models, various equations to calculate remaining transport activity (e.g., efflux ratio, unidirectional flux, net-secretory-flux) were also evaluated. The difference in IC50 values for each of the inhibitors across all test systems and equations ranged from a minimum of 20- and 24-fold between lowest and highest IC50 values for sertraline and isradipine, to a maximum of 407- and 796-fold for telmisartan and verapamil, respectively. For telmisartan and verapamil, variability was greatly influenced by data from one laboratory in each case. Excluding these two data sets brings the range in IC50 values for telmisartan and verapamil down to 69- and 159-fold. The efflux ratio-based equation generally resulted in severalfold lower IC50 values compared with unidirectional or net-secretory-flux equations. Statistical analysis indicated that variability in IC50 values was mainly due to interlaboratory variability, rather than an implicit systematic difference between test systems. Potential reasons for variability are discussed and the simplest, most robust experimental design for P-gp IC50 determination proposed. The impact of these findings on drug-drug interaction risk assessment is discussed in the companion article (Ellens et al., 2013) and recommendations

  19. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  20. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  1. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  2. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  3. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  4. NUREG-1150 risk assessment methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Amos, C.N.; Cunningham, M.A.; Murphy, J.A.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology developed in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NCR's) evaluation of severe accident risks in NUREG-1150. After the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2, the NRC initiated a sever accident research program to develop an improved understanding of severe accidents and to provide a second technical basis to support regulatory decisions in this area. A key product of this program is NUREG-1150, which provides estimates of risk for several nuclear reactors of different design. The principal technical analyses for NUREG-1150 were performed at Sandia National Labs. under the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program and the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program. A major aspect of the work was the development of a methodology that improved upon previous full-scale probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) in several areas which are described.

  5. Mammalian toxicology and human exposures to the flame retardant 2,2',6,6'-tetrabromo-4,4'-isopropylidenediphenol (TBBPA): implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Colnot, Thomas; Kacew, Sam; Dekant, Wolfgang

    2014-03-01

    The compound 2,2',6,6'-Tetrabromo-4,4'-isopropylidenediphenol (tetrabromobisphenol A, TBBPA) is used as a reactive and additive flame retardant. This review evaluates the mammalian toxicology of TBBPA and summarizes recent human exposure and risk assessments. TBBPA has a low potential for systemic or reproductive toxicity, and no-observed-adverse-effect-levels were greater than 1,000 mg/kg body weight (bw)/day in a 90-day oral toxicity study, a developmental toxicity study and a two-generation reproductive and developmental toxicity study. Some interactions of TBBPA with hormone-mediated pathways were noted in vitro; however, when studied in vivo, TBBPA did not produce adverse effects that might be considered to be related to disturbances in the endocrine system. Therefore, in accordance with internationally accepted definitions, TBBPA should not be considered an "endocrine disruptor." Furthermore, TBBPA is rapidly excreted in mammals and therefore does not have a potential for bioaccumulation. Measured concentrations of TBBPA in house dust, human diet and human serum samples are very low. Daily intakes of TBBPA in humans were estimated to not exceed a few ng/kg bw/day. Due to the low exposures and the low potential for toxicity, margins of exposures for TBBPA in the human population were between 6 × 10(4) (infants) to 6 × 10(7) (adults). Exposures of the general population are also well below the derived-no-effect-levels derived for endpoints of potential concern in REACH.

  6. Enantioselective induction of cytotoxicity by o,p'-DDD in PC12 cells: implications of chirality in risk assessment of POPs metabolites.

    PubMed

    Wang, Cui; Li, Zhuoyu; Zhang, Quan; Zhao, Meirong; Liu, Weiping

    2013-04-16

    The increased release of chiral persistent organic pollutants (POPs) into the environment has resulted in more attention to the role of enantioselectivity in the fate and ecotoxicological effects of these compounds. Although the enantioselectivity of chiral POPs has been considered in previous studies, little effort has been expended to discern the enantiospecific effects of chiral POPs metabolites, which may impede comprehensive risk assessments of these chemicals. In the present study, o,p'-DDD, the chiral metabolite of o,p'-DDT, was used as a model chiral metabolite. First, a preferential chiral separation at 100% ethanol was employed to obtain a pure enantiomer. The enantioselective cytotoxicity of o,p'-DDD in rat cells (PC12) was evaluated by detecting activation of the cellular apoptosis and oxidative stress systems and microarray analysis. We have documented for the first time that R-(+)-o,p'-DDD increases apoptosis by selectively disturbing the oxidative system (enzymes and molecules) and regulating the transcription of Aven, Bid, Cideb and Tp53. By comparing the data from the present study to data derived from the parent compound, we concluded that the R-enantiomer is the more detrimental stereostructure for both o,p'-DDT and o,p'-DDD. This observed stereostructural effect is in line with the structure-activity relationship formulated at other structural levels. Biological activities of the chiral metabolites are likely to occur in the same absolute configuration between chiral POPs and their metabolites provided that they have the similar stereostructures.

  7. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    PubMed Central

    Wolt, Jeffrey D

    2009-01-01

    Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

  8. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops.

    PubMed

    Wolt, Jeffrey D

    2009-11-02

    Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  10. Gender and risk assessment accuracy: underestimating women's violence potential.

    PubMed

    Skeem, Jennifer; Schubert, Carol; Stowman, Stephanie; Beeson, Stacy; Mulvey, Edward; Gardner, William; Lidz, Charles

    2005-04-01

    Understanding factors that contribute to mental health professionals' (MHPs') accuracy in assessing patients risk of violence can inform efforts to improve accuracy and to integrate risk assessment technology with practice. Based on a sample of 147 clinicians who assessed 680 patients in a psychiatric emergency room, this study investigates the influence of patient gender, MHP gender, and their potential interaction on MHPS' risk assessment accuracy. The results indicate that MHPs of both genders are particularly limited in their ability to assess female patients' risk of future violence. This finding was not limited to a particular professional group and was not attributable to gender-related differences in violence. Implications for future research on the judgment processes that may underlie MHPs' limited accuracy with women and for training programs in violence risk assessment are discussed.

  11. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  12. Variability in P-glycoprotein inhibitory potency (IC₅₀) using various in vitro experimental systems: implications for universal digoxin drug-drug interaction risk assessment decision criteria.

    PubMed

    Bentz, Joe; O'Connor, Michael P; Bednarczyk, Dallas; Coleman, Joann; Lee, Caroline; Palm, Johan; Pak, Y Anne; Perloff, Elke S; Reyner, Eric; Balimane, Praveen; Brännström, Marie; Chu, Xiaoyan; Funk, Christoph; Guo, Ailan; Hanna, Imad; Herédi-Szabó, Krisztina; Hillgren, Kate; Li, Libin; Hollnack-Pusch, Evelyn; Jamei, Masoud; Lin, Xuena; Mason, Andrew K; Neuhoff, Sibylle; Patel, Aarti; Podila, Lalitha; Plise, Emile; Rajaraman, Ganesh; Salphati, Laurent; Sands, Eric; Taub, Mitchell E; Taur, Jan-Shiang; Weitz, Dietmar; Wortelboer, Heleen M; Xia, Cindy Q; Xiao, Guangqing; Yabut, Jocelyn; Yamagata, Tetsuo; Zhang, Lei; Ellens, Harma

    2013-07-01

    A P-glycoprotein (P-gp) IC₅₀ working group was established with 23 participating pharmaceutical and contract research laboratories and one academic institution to assess interlaboratory variability in P-gp IC₅₀ determinations. Each laboratory followed its in-house protocol to determine in vitro IC₅₀ values for 16 inhibitors using four different test systems: human colon adenocarcinoma cells (Caco-2; eleven laboratories), Madin-Darby canine kidney cells transfected with MDR1 cDNA (MDCKII-MDR1; six laboratories), and Lilly Laboratories Cells--Porcine Kidney Nr. 1 cells transfected with MDR1 cDNA (LLC-PK1-MDR1; four laboratories), and membrane vesicles containing human P-glycoprotein (P-gp; five laboratories). For cell models, various equations to calculate remaining transport activity (e.g., efflux ratio, unidirectional flux, net-secretory-flux) were also evaluated. The difference in IC₅₀ values for each of the inhibitors across all test systems and equations ranged from a minimum of 20- and 24-fold between lowest and highest IC₅₀ values for sertraline and isradipine, to a maximum of 407- and 796-fold for telmisartan and verapamil, respectively. For telmisartan and verapamil, variability was greatly influenced by data from one laboratory in each case. Excluding these two data sets brings the range in IC₅₀ values for telmisartan and verapamil down to 69- and 159-fold. The efflux ratio-based equation generally resulted in severalfold lower IC₅₀ values compared with unidirectional or net-secretory-flux equations. Statistical analysis indicated that variability in IC₅₀ values was mainly due to interlaboratory variability, rather than an implicit systematic difference between test systems. Potential reasons for variability are discussed and the simplest, most robust experimental design for P-gp IC₅₀ determination proposed. The impact of these findings on drug-drug interaction risk assessment is discussed in the companion article (Ellens

  13. Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management

    PubMed Central

    Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Mohamed, Samira F.; Khamis, Fathiya; Ekesi, Sunday

    2015-01-01

    To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and

  14. Long-term daily intake estimates of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans, polychlorinated biphenyls and polybrominated diphenylethers from food in Finnish children: risk assessment implications.

    PubMed

    Karjalainen, Anna K; Hirvonen, Tero; Kiviranta, Hannu; Sinkko, Harri; Kronberg-Kippilä, Carina; Virtanen, Suvi M; Hallikainen, Anja; Leino, Olli; Knip, Mikael; Veijola, Riitta; Simell, Olli; Tuomisto, Jouni T

    2012-01-01

    Food is contaminated by polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/F), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDE) worldwide. Previous data show elevated intakes in children. We determined intakes of POPs in Finnish children. Because no children-specific safe limit values exist, we used tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) set for adults by international expert bodies to examine the proportion of the study population that exceed those limits. We utilised dietary monitoring data with food consumption of Finnish boys and girls aged 1-6 years, measured the contaminant concentrations in all the main food items and calculated age-specific contaminant sum and congener-specific long-term daily intake levels. Our food intake and contaminant data correspond to years 2002-2005. The long-term upper-bound dioxin intakes ranged between 0.1 and 12.8 pg WHO(PCDD/F-PCB)-TEQ/kg bw/d (min and max). An immediate TDI for WHO(PCDD/F-PCB)-TEQs of 4.0 pg/kg bw/d were exceeded by 2.5%-7.5% of the children. PBDE long-term upper-bound intake was between 0.1 and 5.8 ng/kg bw/d (min and max). Congener-specific analyses indicated a typical Finnish adult exposure pattern of the children to PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs. The highest POP intakes were observed in children aged 3 years. Long-term daily PCDD/F, PCB and PBDE intakes among Finnish children varied greatly between individuals and ages. In each age group of the study population, there was a proportion of children with their WHO(PCDD/F-PCB)-TEQ intake exceeding considered safe limits set for adults. Based on the exposure profile reported herein, children should be clearly considered as a specific sub-population in food-mediated contaminant risk assessment.

  15. Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management.

    PubMed

    Tonnang, Henri E Z; Mohamed, Samira A; Mohamed, Samira F; Khamis, Fathiya; Ekesi, Sunday

    2015-01-01

    To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and

  16. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  17. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  18. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  19. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    PubMed

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  20. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    SciTech Connect

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed.

  2. Applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.J.; Chapman, J.R.; Follen, S.M.; O'Regan, P.J. )

    1991-05-01

    This report provides a summary of potential and actual applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technology and insights. Individual applications are derived from the experiences of a number of US nuclear utilities. This report identifies numerous applications of PRA techniques beyond those typically associated with PRAs. In addition, believing that the future use of PRA techniques should not be limited to those of the past, areas of plant operations, maintenance, and financial resource allocation are discussed. 9 refs., 3 tabs.

  3. Risk assessment for pulmonary resection.

    PubMed

    Brunelli, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment for pulmonary resection must include a preliminary cardiac evaluation. Patients deemed at prohibitive cardiac risk should be evaluated and treated as per American Heart Association/American Society of Cardiology guidelines. Those with low cardiac risk or with optimized treatment can proceed with pulmonary assessment. A systematic measurement of lung carbon monoxide diffusing capacity is recommended. In addition, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second should not be used alone for patient selection because it is not an accurate predictor of complications, particularly in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The use of exercise testing should be emphasized. Low-technology tests, such as stair climbing, can be used whenever a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test is not readily available. However, in case of suboptimal performance (ie, <22 m in the stair-climbing test) patients should be referred to cardiopulmonary exercise testing with measurement of Vo(2max) for a better definition of their aerobic reserve. A Vo(2max) less than 10 mL/kg/min (or <35% of predicted) indicates a high risk for major lung resection.

  4. Cognitive Reserve: Implications for Assessment and Intervention

    PubMed Central

    Stern, Yaakov

    2014-01-01

    The concept of reserve is used to explain the observation that some individuals function better than others in the presence of brain pathology. This paper reviews the concept of reserve from its theoretical basis to the implication of reserve for clinical practice. A distinction between brain reserve, referring to individual differences in the anatomic substrate, and cognitive reserve, referring to differences in the flexibility or adaptivity of cognitive networks, is useful. Epidemiologic evidence indicates that a set of life exposures including higher educational and occupational attainment, and engaging in leisure activities is associated with a lower risk of incident dementia, suggesting that these life exposures may enhance cognitive reserve. This provides a basis for controlled clinical studies can test specific exposures that may enhance reserve. The concept of cognitive reserve also has important implications for clinical practice in terms of diagnosis and prognosis. PMID:23941972

  5. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  6. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  7. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  8. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  9. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  10. Interactions Between Child Behavior Patterns and Parent Supervision: Implications for Children's Risk of Unintentional Injury

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrongiello, Barbara A.; Klemencic, Nora; Corbett, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Unintentional injuries are the leading cause of death for children. Prior research has implicated both child behavioral attributes and parent supervisory patterns as risk factors. The present study assessed interactions between these two risk factors and determined whether supervision moderates the relation between child attributes and injury.…

  11. Assessment literacy: definition, implementation, and implications.

    PubMed

    Rhind, Susan M; Paterson, Jessie

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the current notion of assessment literacy and describes delivery and evaluation of an intervention to support its development in two different cohorts in a veterinary curriculum. Before the intervention, two cohorts (Cohort A, first-year students; Cohort B, third-year students) were surveyed on their expectations and understanding of assessment. The new students expressed uncertainty about their understanding of the assessment process: 51% disagreed that they had a good understanding. As expected, more experienced students had a better understanding, although 30% still disagreed that they had a good understanding of the process. A workshop supporting the development of assessment literacy was implemented, giving students an opportunity to evaluate authentic student work of differing standards. Most of the students in both cohorts found the session helpful in terms of their understanding of different standards in assessments (92% and 97%), and most found it helped them understand how to prepare for the degree examination better (75% and 87%). Student grades were recorded in the workshop involving Cohort B, revealing a large variation in students' ability to grade other students' work accurately, with bias ranging from 22% to -25%. Finally, faculty views on student preparedness for assessment were also explored and compared to student views. Disagreement existed between faculty regarding perceived student preparedness for assessment, and significantly more faculty than students thought that students had a good understanding of how their assessments would be graded. The implications of these results for future work and faculty development are discussed.

  12. Risk assessment for neurobehavioral toxicity

    SciTech Connect

    McMillan, D.E.

    1987-12-01

    A study of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC) found neurobehavioral toxicity to be one of the areas where almost no data are available for the assessment of toxicity. Using the NAS/NRC report and a data base from the American Conference of Government Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH), an estimate of the number of neurobehavioral toxins in commercial chemicals can be made. Although the assumption made in making such a calculation may be invalid, the exercise suggests that the number of neurobehavioral toxins may be quite large. There does seem to be general agreement as to what type of neurobehavioral test procedures are appropriate for regulatory purposes. Select committees have consistently recommended the use of test batteries that include schedule-controlled behavior, motor activity, and neuropathological examination following in vivo perfusion, for regulatory purposes. Alkyltin data developed from such a battery were applied to the risk assessment model employed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their calculations of acceptable daily intake. Using this test battery and the EPA risk assessment model, the acceptable daily intake calculated is of the same order of magnitude as the total limit values established by the ACGIH. A number of special issues in neurobehavioral toxicity also are discussed, including the definition of adverse neurobehavioral toxic effect, species extrapolation, correlation of behavior and neuropathology, alternative methods, and quality of life issues.

  13. Using the Health Belief Model to Illustrate Factors That Influence Risk Assessment during Pregnancy and Implications for Prenatal Education about Endocrine Disruptors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Qiu, Xing; Chen, Shaw-Ree; Barrett, Emily S.; Velez, Marissa; Conn, Kelly; Heinert, Sara

    2014-01-01

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) such as Bisphenol A (BPA) and phthalates are ubiquitous in our environment and a growing body of research indicates that EDCs may adversely affect human development. Fetal development is particularly susceptible to EDC exposure, and prenatal care providers are being asked to educate women about the risks of…

  14. Using the Health Belief Model to Illustrate Factors That Influence Risk Assessment during Pregnancy and Implications for Prenatal Education about Endocrine Disruptors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Qiu, Xing; Chen, Shaw-Ree; Barrett, Emily S.; Velez, Marissa; Conn, Kelly; Heinert, Sara

    2014-01-01

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) such as Bisphenol A (BPA) and phthalates are ubiquitous in our environment and a growing body of research indicates that EDCs may adversely affect human development. Fetal development is particularly susceptible to EDC exposure, and prenatal care providers are being asked to educate women about the risks of…

  15. When is 'Urgent' Really Urgent and Does it Matter? Misclassification of Procedural Status and Implications for Risk Assessment in Cardiac Surgery.

    PubMed

    Karim, Md N; Reid, Christopher M; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Billah, Baki

    2016-02-01

    Many patients classified as "urgent" in Australia New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) registry contradict the prescribed definition (surgery within 72hours of angiogram or unplanned admission). The aim was to examine the impacts of this misclassification on the prediction of 30-day mortality following cardiac surgery. The 'reported clinical status' was compared with a 'corrected clinical status' following reclassification based on the standard definition calculated from raw data. Observed-to-predicted risk ratios (OPRs) of 30-day mortality were calculated for the model using reported status and corrected status and compared. A Bland-Altman plot was generated to examine the level of agreement between the two OPRs. Of 18496 cases reported as urgent, 49.9% were operated after 72hours, leading to misclassification of 14.6% in the registry. Misclassified patients had significantly higher mortality (3.5%) than true urgent patients (2.9%). Underweight (OR:1.6,CI:1.2-2.1), dialysis (OR:1.4,CI:1.1-1.7), endocarditis (OR:2.1,CI:1.7-2.5), shock (OR:1.6,CI:1.3-2.0) and poor ejection fraction (OR:1.2,CI:1.1-1.4) were significant predictors of misclassification. Bland- Altman plot demonstrates significant disagreement between two risk estimates (P<0.001). Misclassification results in overestimation of risk by 9.1%. Observed-to-predicted risk increased with corrected definition (0.8975 vs 0.9875), suggesting poorer calibration with reported status. In the ANZSCTS database, misclassification prevalence is 14.6%. Misclassification compromises the discrimination capacity and calibration of the model and results in overestimation of mortality risk. Copyright © 2015 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  17. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  18. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  19. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  20. Chromium environmental risk assessment. Interim report, April 1996--October 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Vermulen, E.K.; May, L.M.; Hoffman-Till, T.A.; Prince, J.K.; Lurker, P.A.

    1997-11-01

    A review of chromium environmental criteria, supporting scientific studies and recent research activities was conducted to determine the implications of evolving observations on cancer risk to DoD environmental clean-up programs. Public concern over the occupational cancer risk of hexavalent chromium is influencing a new assessment of the risk data. Toxicology literature on the human health hazards, cancer and non-cancer, was reviewed. On-going epidemiology efforts were unavailable for a thorough assessment. Data gaps in the literature were noted as support for research recommendations. Alternatives to chromium speciation at environmental clean-up sites were recommended as an interim measure. An extensive bibliography is provided.

  1. Performance of two quantitative PCR methods for microbial source tracking of human sewage and implications for microbial risk assessment in recreational waters

    EPA Science Inventory

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for recreational water quality assessment and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant soure has been...

  2. Performance of two quantitative PCR methods for microbial source tracking of human sewage and implications for microbial risk assessment in recreational waters

    EPA Science Inventory

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for recreational water quality assessment and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant soure has been...

  3. Effect of major cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+) and anions (SO4(2-), Cl- , NO3-) on Ni accumulation and toxicity in aquatic plant (Lemna minor L.): implications For Ni risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gopalapillai, Yamini; Hale, Beverley; Vigneault, Bernard

    2013-04-01

    The effect of major cation activity (Ca(2+) , Mg(2+) , Na(+) , K(+) ) on Ni toxicity, with dose expressed as exposure (total dissolved Ni concentration NiTot ) or free Ni ion activity (in solution Ni(2+) ), or as tissue residue (Ni concentration in plant tissue NiTiss ) to the aquatic plant Lemna minor L. was examined. In addition, Ni accumulation kinetics was explored to provide mechanistic insight into current approaches of toxicity modeling, such as the tissue residue approach and the biotic ligand model (BLM), and the implications for plant Ni risk assessment. Major cations did not inhibit Ni accumulation via competitive inhibition as expected by the BLM framework. For example, Ca(2+) and Mg(2+) (sulfate as counter-anion) had an anticompetitive effect on Ni accumulation, suggesting that Ca or Mg forms a ternary complex with Ni-biotic ligand. The counter-anion of the added Ca (sulfate, chloride, or nitrate) affected plant response (percentage of root growth inhibition) to Ni. Generally, sulfate and chloride influenced plant response while nitrate did not, even when compared within the same range of Ca(2+) , which suggests that the anion dominated the observed plant response. Overall, although an effect of major cations on Ni toxicity to L. minor L. was observed at a physiological level, Ni(2+) or NiTot alone modeled plant response, generally within a span of twofold, over a wide range of water chemistry. Thus, consideration of major cation competition for improving Ni toxicity predictions in risk assessment for aquatic plants may not be necessary. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  4. Assessing violence risk and psychopathy in juvenile and adult offenders: a survey of clinical practices.

    PubMed

    Viljoen, Jodi L; McLachlan, Kaitlyn; Vincent, Gina M

    2010-09-01

    This study surveyed 199 forensic clinicians about the practices that they use in assessing violence risk in juvenile and adult offenders. Results indicated that the use of risk assessment and psychopathy tools was common. Although clinicians reported more routine use of psychopathy measures in adult risk assessments compared with juvenile risks assessments, 79% of clinicians reported using psychopathy measures at least once in a while in juvenile risk assessments. Extremely few clinicians, however, believe that juveniles should be labeled or referred to as psychopaths. Juvenile risk reports were more likely than adult reports to routinely discuss treatment and protective factors, and provide recommendations to reevaluate risk. The implications of these findings are discussed.

  5. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  6. Persistence of nucleic acid markers of health-relevant organisms in seawater microcosms: implications for their use in assessing risk in recreational waters.

    PubMed

    Walters, Sarah P; Yamahara, Kevan M; Boehm, Alexandria B

    2009-11-01

    management implications.

  7. First-order based cumulative distribution function for solute concentration in heterogeneous aquifers: Theoretical analysis and implications for human health risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F. P. J.; Fiori, A.

    2014-05-01

    Quantifying the uncertainty of solute concentration in heterogeneous aquifers is an important step in both human health and ecological risk analysis. The need for a probabilistic representation of transport is justified by the incomplete characterization of the subsurface. We derive the one-point concentration cumulative distribution function (CDF) while taking into account the spatial statistical structure of the hydraulic conductivity, space dimensionality, the injection source size, the Péclet number, and the sampling volume at the monitoring location. The CDF is application oriented and derived at first order in the log-conductivity variance. We illustrate how several key parameters control the shape of the concentration CDF. The CDF shape is important since it reflects both uncertainty and the dilution state of the plume. The transition from a bimodal to a unimodal CDF is examined and results are further supported by analyzing the concentration coefficient of variation. Results indicate the significance of the statistical anisotropy ratio (i.e., the ratio between the hydraulic conductivity correlation scales) in determining the CDF shape. The importance of the sampling volume in the tails of the concentration CDF and a comparison between the proposed model with the β-CDF approach (i.e., beta distribution) are also shown. Finally, we illustrate how the framework could be used in applications by evaluating the human health risk CDF. Our results are formally valid for low to moderate heterogeneous aquifers and source sizes small as compared to the hydraulic conductivity correlation length. The proposed approach can serve as a benchmark tool for other methods.

  8. Child effects and child care: Implications for risk and adjustment.

    PubMed

    Snell, Emily K; Hindman, Annemarie H; Belsky, Jay

    2015-11-01

    Evocative effects of child characteristics on the quality and quantity of child care were assessed in two studies using longitudinal data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care. We focus on the influence of child characteristics on two important aspects of the child care experience: language stimulation provided by caregivers and quantity of care. In Study 1, associations between the developmental status of children aged 15 to 54 months and the language stimulation provided by their caregivers were examined using path models, and longitudinal child effects were detected across the earliest time points of the study. In Study 2, the associations among child behavior, temperament, development, and time in care were examined. Little evidence was found for such child effects on time in care. The results are discussed in terms of the effects of child care on child development and implications for developmental processes, particularly for children at greatest risk for developmental delay or psychopathology.

  9. Cancer clinical trial participants' assessment of risk and benefit

    PubMed Central

    Ulrich, Connie M.; Ratcliffe, Sarah J.; Wallen, Gwenyth R.; Zhou, Qiuping (Pearl); Knafl, Kathleen; Grady, Christine

    2015-01-01

    Background The purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which cancer clinical trial participants assess the benefits and risks of research participation before enrollment. Methods One hundred and ten oncology research participants enrolled in cancer clinical research in a large Northeastern cancer center responded to a self-administered questionnaire on perceptions about cancer clinical trials. Results Of the participants, 51.6% reported they did not directly assess the benefits or risks. Educational level, age, employment, treatment options, insurance, and spiritual–religious beliefs were significantly associated with whether participants assessed risk and benefits. Those who felt well informed were more likely to have assessed the benefits and risks at enrollment than those who did not feel well informed (odds ratio [OR] = 3.92, p = .014); of those who did not assess the risks and benefits, 21% did not feel well informed at enrollment (p = .001). Those who agreed that the clinical trial helped pay the costs of the care had nearly three times the odds of not assessing risks and benefits compared to those who disagreed. Conclusion Our findings have important implications for understanding the role of assessing risks and benefits in the research participation decisions of patients with cancer and call for further understanding of why participants are not assessing information believed to be essential for autonomous informed decisions. PMID:26709381

  10. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    PubMed

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  11. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  12. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  13. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  14. Postural control is not systematically related to reading skills: implications for the assessment of balance as a risk factor for developmental dyslexia.

    PubMed

    Loras, Håvard; Sigmundsson, Hermundur; Stensdotter, Ann-Katrin; Talcott, Joel B

    2014-01-01

    Impaired postural control has been associated with poor reading skills, as well as with lower performance on measures of attention and motor control variables that frequently co-occur with reading difficulties. Measures of balance and motor control have been incorporated into several screening batteries for developmental dyslexia, but it is unclear whether the relationship between such skills and reading manifests as a behavioural continuum across the range of abilities or is restricted to groups of individuals with specific disorder phenotypes. Here were obtained measures of postural control alongside measures of reading, attention and general cognitive skills in a large sample of young adults (n = 100). Postural control was assessed using centre of pressure (CoP) measurements, obtained over 5 different task conditions. Our results indicate an absence of strong statistical relationships between balance measures with either reading, cognitive or attention measures across the sample as a whole.

  15. Postural Control Is Not Systematically Related to Reading Skills: Implications for the Assessment of Balance as a Risk Factor for Developmental Dyslexia

    PubMed Central

    Loras, Håvard; Sigmundsson, Hermundur; Stensdotter, Ann-Katrin; Talcott, Joel B.

    2014-01-01

    Impaired postural control has been associated with poor reading skills, as well as with lower performance on measures of attention and motor control variables that frequently co-occur with reading difficulties. Measures of balance and motor control have been incorporated into several screening batteries for developmental dyslexia, but it is unclear whether the relationship between such skills and reading manifests as a behavioural continuum across the range of abilities or is restricted to groups of individuals with specific disorder phenotypes. Here were obtained measures of postural control alongside measures of reading, attention and general cognitive skills in a large sample of young adults (n = 100). Postural control was assessed using centre of pressure (CoP) measurements, obtained over 5 different task conditions. Our results indicate an absence of strong statistical relationships between balance measures with either reading, cognitive or attention measures across the sample as a whole. PMID:24892925

  16. Influence of drought and total phosphorus on diel pH in wadeable streams: implications for ecological risk assessment of ionizable contaminants.

    PubMed

    Valenti, Theodore W; Taylor, Jason M; Back, Jeffrey A; King, Ryan S; Brooks, Bryan W

    2011-10-01

    Climatological influences on site-specific ecohydrology are particularly germane in semiarid regions where instream flows are strongly influenced by effluent discharges. Because many traditional and emerging aquatic contaminants, such as pharmaceuticals, are ionizable, we examined diel surface water pH patterns (i.e., change in pH over a 24-h period) at 23 wadeable streams in central Texas, USA, representing a gradient of nutrient enrichment during consecutive summers of 2006 and 2007. The years of our study were characterized by decidedly different instream flows, which likely affected production:respiration dynamics and led to distinctions in diel pH patterns between 2006 and 2007. Site-specific ambient water quality criteria for NH(3) and the aquatic toxicity of the model weak base pharmaceutical sertraline were predicted using continuous water quality monitoring data from the sites. Drought conditions of 2006 significantly increased (p<0.05) diel pH changes compared to high instream flows of 2007,and the magnitude of diel pH variability was most pronounced at nutrient-enriched sites in 2006. Differences in diel pH change patterns between 2006 and 2007 affected predictions of the environmental fate and effects for model weak base pharmaceuticals and NH(3). Overall, site-specific diel pH was more variable at some sites than the difference in mean surface water pH between the 2 summers. Diel pH variability affected regulatory criteria, because 20% of the study sites in 2006 experienced greater than 5-fold differences in National Ambient Water Quality Criteria for NH(3) over 24-h periods. Our study emphasizes the potential uncertainty that diel pH variability may introduce in site-specific assessments and provides recommendations for environmental assessment of ionizable contaminants.

  17. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-01

    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  18. Advances in the assessment of suicide risk.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Craig J; Rudd, M David

    2006-02-01

    This article reviews and integrates empirically grounded advances in the assessment of suicidality. The practices discussed are consistent with existing standards of care, practice guidelines, and applicable research. The authors differentiate between risk assessment and prediction and then emphasize the important role of time in risk assessment. We present and illustrate a continuum of suicidality for risk assessment and offer practical recommendations for clinical decision making and treatment. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible.

  20. Bilastine: an environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lucero, María Luisa; Peither, Armin; Ledo, Francisco

    2015-10-01

    Bilastine is a new oral selective, non-sedating histamine H1 antagonist for the symptomatic treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. The European Medicines Agency requires an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for all novel medicines for human use. To calculate the bilastine predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw; phase I ERA), and to determine the effects of bilastine on aquatic systems (phase II [tier A]). Bilastine PECsw was calculated using the maximum daily dosage (20 mg), assuming that all administered bilastine was released into the aquatic environment. A persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity assessment was conducted using the log Kow from the molecular structure. In phase II (tier A), a ready biodegradability test was performed, and bilastine's potential toxicity to various aquatic and sediment-dwelling micro-organisms was evaluated. Bilastine PECSW was calculated as 0.1 μg L(-1), and the compound was not readily biodegradable. Bilastine had no significant effects on Chironomus riparius midges, or on the respiration rate of activated sludge. For green algae, the bilastine no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was 22 mg L(-1); bilastine had no effect on zebra fish development, or on the reproduction rate of daphnids. Bilastine NOEC values against zebra fish, algae, daphnids, and aerobic organisms in activated sludge were at least 130 000-fold greater than the calculated PECSW value. No environmental concerns exist from bilastine use in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis or urticaria.

  1. Assessing complexity of skin blood flow oscillations in response to locally applied heating and pressure in rats: Implications for pressure ulcer risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Fuyuan; O'Brien, William D.; Jan, Yih-Kuen

    2013-10-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of local heating on the complexity of skin blood flow oscillations (BFO) under prolonged surface pressure in rats. Eleven Sprague-Dawley rats were studied: 7 rats underwent surface pressure with local heating (△t=10 °C) and 4 rats underwent pressure without heating. A pressure of 700 mmHg was applied to the right trochanter area of rats for 3 h. Skin blood flow was measured using laser Doppler flowmetry. The loading period was divided into nonoverlapping 30 min epochs. For each epoch, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) was utilized to compute DFA coefficients and complexity of endothelial related metabolic, neurogenic, and myogenic frequencies of BFO. The results showed that under surface pressure, local heating led to a significant decrease in DFA coefficients of myogenic frequency during the initial epoch of loading period, a sustained decrease in complexity of myogenic frequency, and a significantly higher degree of complexity of metabolic frequency during the later phase of loading period. Surrogate tests showed that the reduction in complexity of myogenic frequency was associated with a loss of nonlinearity whereas increased complexity of metabolic frequency was associated with enhanced nonlinearity. Our results indicate that increased metabolic activity and decreased myogenic response due to local heating manifest themselves not only in magnitudes of metabolic and myogenic frequencies but also in their structural complexity. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using complexity analysis of BFO to monitor the ischemic status of weight-bearing skin and risk of pressure ulcers.

  2. Presence of PAHs in water and sediments of the Colombian Cauca River during heavy rain episodes, and implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sarria-Villa, Rodrigo; Ocampo-Duque, William; Páez, Martha; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In Colombia little attention has been paid to river pollution with Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs). Low environmental control and legislation in such emerging region could significantly contribute to high PAHs releases. In this study, we report the presence of PAHs in water and sediments of the Cauca River (Colombia). Three sampling campaigns were carried out between May 2010 and June 2011, and the samples were collected at eight relevant sites. The sampling time included measuring before, during, and after a season of heavy rains, which were influenced by the global coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomenon, which affected tropical countries with huge flooding, commonly called "La Niña", and/or "El Niño" Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The highest mean ∑PAH concentrations were 4476.5 ng/l and 1582.7 ng/g in water and sediments, respectively. The PAHs most detected were Benzo[b]fluoranthene, Benzo[k]fluoranthene, and Pyrene in sediments; and Fluorene, Acenaphtylene, and Anthracene in water. After the season of rains statistically significant higher PAH concentrations were detected. The results of the study were compared to other rivers worldwide at both environmental compartments, and did not show concentrations of special concern. In some sites, concentrations detected of PAHs were higher than screening benchmarks for ecological protection. Estimation of human health risks was carried out, and the results suggested some likely carcinogenic effects due to PAHs especially in children exposed during current recreational swimming and adults working in low technology sand extraction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects.

  4. Risk perception and communication: recent developments and implications for anaesthesia.

    PubMed

    Adams, A M; Smith, A F

    2001-08-01

    This review begins by outlining the history of probability theory, exposing cultural differences between scientists and lay people in the way risks are viewed. The basic principles of the science of risk perception are described, and the various methods of communicating risk in health care, both verbal and numerical, are then discussed critically. These concepts are then applied to the practice of anaesthesia. Risk perception may affect anaesthetists' choice of career and may be involved in the genesis and evolution of critical incidents; we also discuss possibilities for training in risk perception issues. The place of risk communication in informed consent and its ethical implications are discussed.

  5. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  6. An assessment of health-care students’ attitudes toward patients with or at high risk for HIV: implications for education and cultural competency

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Harry; Earnshaw, Valerie A.; Wickersham, Jeffrey A.; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Desai, Mayur M.; John, Jacob; Altice, Frederick L.

    2014-01-01

    Stigma perpetuated by health-care providers has been found to be a barrier to care for vulnerable populations, including HIV-infected, people who inject drugs (PWIDs), and men who have sex with men (MSM) in multiple clinical contexts and remains unexamined among professional health-care students in Malaysia. This cross-sectional, anonymous, and Internet-based survey assessed the attitudes of medical and dental students toward HIV-infected, PWID, and MSM patients. Survey invitation was emailed to 3191 students at 8 professional schools; 1296 (40.6%) responded and scored their attitudes toward these patient groups using a feeling thermometer, indicating their attitudes on a sliding scale from 0 (most negative) to 100 (most positive). Compared to general patients (mean = 76.50), the mean scores for HIV-infected (mean = 54.04; p < 0.001), PWID (mean = 37.50; p < 0.001), and MSM (mean=32.13; p < 0.001) patients were significantly lower and significantly different between each group comparison. Within group differences, most notably religion, ethnicity, and personally knowing someone from these populations were associated with significant differences in attitudes. No differences were noted between pre-clinical and clinical year of training. Health-care students represent the next generation of clinicians who will be responsible for future HIV prevention and treatment efforts. Our findings suggest alarmingly negative attitudes toward these patients, especially MSM, necessitating prompt and effective interventions designed to ameliorate the negative attitudes of health-care students toward vulnerable populations, specifically HIV-infected, PWID, and MSM patients in Malaysia. PMID:24625279

  7. Influence of light, nutrients, and temperature on the toxicity of atrazine to the algal species Raphidocelis subcapitata: Implications for the risk assessment of herbicides.

    PubMed

    Baxter, Leilan; Brain, Richard A; Lissemore, Linda; Solomon, Keith R; Hanson, Mark L; Prosser, Ryan S

    2016-10-01

    The acute toxicity of herbicides to algae is commonly assessed under conditions (e.g., light intensity, water temperature, concentration of nutrients, pH) prescribed by standard test protocols. However, the observed toxicity may vary with changes in one or more of these parameters. This study examined variation in toxicity of the herbicide atrazine to a representative green algal species Raphidocelis subcapitata (formerly Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) with changes in light intensity, water temperature, concentrations of nutrients or combinations of these three parameters. Conditions were chosen that could be representative of the intensive corn growing Midwestern region of the United States of America where atrazine is used extensively. Varying light intensity (4-58µmol/m(2)s) resulted in no observable trend in 96-h EC50 values for growth rate. EC50 values for PSII yield generally increased with decreasing light intensity but not significantly in all cases. The 96-h EC50 values for growth rate decreased with decreases in temperature (20-5°C) from standard conditions (25°C), but EC50 values for PSII yield at lower temperatures were not significantly different from standard conditions. Finally, there was no clear trend in 96-h EC50 values for both endpoints with increases in nitrogen (4.1-20mg/L) and phosphorus (0.24-1.2mg/L). The 96-h EC50 values for both endpoints under combinations of conditions mimicking aquatic systems in the Midwestern U.S. were not significantly different from EC50 values generated under standard test conditions. This combination of decreased light intensity and temperature and increased nutrients relative to standard conditions does not appear to significantly affect the observed toxicity of atrazine to R. subcapitata. For atrazine specifically, and for perhaps other herbicides, this means current laboratory protocols are useful for extrapolating to effects on algae under realistic environmental conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier

  8. Nano-objects emitted during maintenance of common particle generators: direct chemical characterization with aerosol mass spectrometry and implications for risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nilsson, Patrik T.; Isaxon, Christina; Eriksson, Axel C.; Messing, Maria E.; Ludvigsson, Linus; Rissler, Jenny; Hedmer, Maria; Tinnerberg, Håkan; Gudmundsson, Anders; Deppert, Knut; Bohgard, Mats; Pagels, Joakim H.

    2013-11-01

    Nanotechnology gives us materials with enhanced or completely new properties. At the same time, inhalation of manufactured nano-objects has been related to an array of adverse biological effects. We characterized particle emissions, which occurred during maintenance of common metal nanoparticle generators and contrasted the properties of the emitted particles with those originally produced by the generators. A new approach using online aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS), for time- and size-resolved measurements of the particle chemical composition, was applied in combination with more conventional techniques for particle sampling and analysis, including electron microscopy. Emissions during maintenance work, in terms of mass and surface area concentration in the size range of 0.02-10 μm, were dominated by large agglomerates (1-5 μm). With AMS, we show that the particle composition depends on both generator type and maintenance task being performed and that the instrument can be used for highly time-resolved selective studies of metal nanoparticle emissions. The emitted agglomerates have a relatively high probability to be deposited in the lower respiratory tract, since the mean particle diameter coincided with a peak in the lung deposition curve. Each of these agglomerates consisted of a very high number (103-105/agglomerate) of nanometer-sized primary particles originating from the particle synthesis process. This made them possess large surface areas, one of the key properties in nanotoxicology. Similar agglomerates may be emitted in a wide range of processes when nanoparticles are manufactured or handled. The fate of such agglomerates, once deposited in the respiratory tract, is unknown and should therefore be considered in future particle toxicological studies. Our results highlight the importance of including micrometer-sized particles in exposure and emission assessments.

  9. An assessment of health-care students' attitudes toward patients with or at high risk for HIV: implications for education and cultural competency.

    PubMed

    Jin, Harry; Earnshaw, Valerie A; Wickersham, Jeffrey A; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Desai, Mayur M; John, Jacob; Altice, Frederick L

    2014-01-01

    Stigma perpetuated by health-care providers has been found to be a barrier to care for vulnerable populations, including HIV-infected, people who inject drugs (PWIDs), and men who have sex with men (MSM) in multiple clinical contexts and remains unexamined among professional health-care students in Malaysia. This cross-sectional, anonymous, and Internet-based survey assessed the attitudes of medical and dental students toward HIV-infected, PWID, and MSM patients. Survey invitation was emailed to 3191 students at 8 professional schools; 1296 (40.6%) responded and scored their attitudes toward these patient groups using a feeling thermometer, indicating their attitudes on a sliding scale from 0 (most negative) to 100 (most positive). Compared to general patients (mean = 76.50), the mean scores for HIV-infected (mean = 54.04; p < 0.001), PWID (mean = 37.50; p < 0.001), and MSM (mean = 32.13; p < 0.001) patients were significantly lower and significantly different between each group comparison. Within group differences, most notably religion, ethnicity, and personally knowing someone from these populations were associated with significant differences in attitudes. No differences were noted between pre-clinical and clinical year of training. Health-care students represent the next generation of clinicians who will be responsible for future HIV prevention and treatment efforts. Our findings suggest alarmingly negative attitudes toward these patients, especially MSM, necessitating prompt and effective interventions designed to ameliorate the negative attitudes of health-care students toward vulnerable populations, specifically HIV-infected, PWID, and MSM patients in Malaysia.

  10. A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1994-10-17

    Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP).

  11. Hiroshima and Nagasaki: New doses, risks, and their implications

    SciTech Connect

    Schull, W.J.; Shimizu, Y.; Kato, H. )

    1990-07-01

    This presentation summarizes the recent re-evaluations of the dose and risk of cancer among survivors of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It addresses briefly their limitations, and describes some of their implications for the lifetime projection of the risk of a fatal cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation.

  12. Pressure sore risk assessment in palliative care.

    PubMed

    Chaplin, J

    2000-01-01

    Pressure sore prevention in palliative care is recognized as being an essential element of holistic care, with the primary goal of promoting quality of life for patient and family. Little is known about the incidence of pressure sore development and the use of pressure sore risk assessment tools in palliative care settings. The development of a risk assessment tool specifically for palliative care patients in a 41-bedded specialist palliative care unit is described. The risk assessment tool was developed as part of a tissue viability practice development initiative. The approach adopted in the validation of the Hunters Hill Marie Curie Centre pressure sore risk assessment tool was the comparative analysis of professional judgment of experienced palliative care nurses with the numerical scores achieved during the assessment of risk on 291 patients (529 risk assessment events). This comparative analysis identified the threshold for different degrees of risk for the patient group involved: low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Further work is being undertaken to evaluate the inter-rater reliability of the new tool. A number of issues are explored in this paper in relation to pressure sore prevention in palliative care: the role of risk assessment tools, the sometimes conflicting aims of trying to ensure comfort and prevent pressure sore damage, and the uncertainties faced by palliative care nurses when they are trying to maintain quality of life for the dying.

  13. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  14. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  15. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  16. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    PubMed

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) (1/2); Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2(Health effect level)×2(exposure ratio)×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  17. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  18. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  19. Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

  20. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  1. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  2. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  3. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  4. Cumulative Assessment of Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  5. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  6. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  7. Risk Analysis and Uncertainty: Implications for Counselling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassenzahl, David

    2004-01-01

    Over the past two decades, the risk analysis community has made substantial advances in understanding and describing uncertainty. Uncertainty is ubiquitous, complex, both quantitative and qualitative in nature, and often irreducible. Uncertainty thus creates a challenge when using risk analysis to evaluate the rationality of group and individual…

  8. Integrated risk assessment and endocrine disrupters.

    PubMed

    Bridges, J W; Bridges, Olga

    2004-12-01

    1. The procedures currently employed for risk assessment are unlikely to be sustainable in the future for a variety of reasons. A number of actions are needed to remedy the situation and the most important of these actions are: * to improve access to existing data; * to introduce a prioritisation system based on exposure assessment; * to co-ordinate and harmonise approaches of different organisations involved in risk assessment. 2. Integration of information and methodologies between human health risk assessment and ecological risk assessment (integrated risk assessment) is advocated in this paper as one of the most important steps towards a holistic and effective way of conducting a risk assessment. 3. A framework is proposed for identification of agents for which an integrated risk assessment would be of particular value. Close collaboration across disciplines and across countries is necessary for the potential of integrated risk assessment to be realised in practice. The practicality of applying integrated risk assessment to endocrine disrupting agents is presently being investigated in an EU funded multi-laboratory collaborative study (CREDO).

  9. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  10. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  11. Proceedings of the 2006 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference: Applying Mode of Action in Risk Assessment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-07-01

    Ecological Risk Assessment; Benchmark Dose Methods ; Fundamentals of Risk Assessment; and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tools for Managing Complex...Tomato; I Say Lampshade - Different Methods and Mechanisms for Health Risk Assessment.” The program, which is included in this report, gives an...cutting edge chemical mixture health risk assessment risk issues, explanation of state-of-the-art methods , and hands on exercises for several

  12. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  13. Fire Risk Implications in Safety Analysis Reports

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-03-31

    Fire can be a significant risk for facilities that store and handle radiological material. Such events must be evaluated as part of a comprehensive safety analysis. SRS has been developing methods to evaluate radiological fire risk in such facilities. These methods combined with the analysis techniques proposed by DOE-STD-3009-94 have provided a better understanding of how fire risks in nuclear facilities should be managed. To ensure that these new insights are properly disseminated the DOE Savannah River Office and the Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board (DNFSB) requested Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) prepare this paper.

  14. [Risk assessment on laboratory biosafety of Leishmania].

    PubMed

    Xiong, Yan-Hong; Guan, Ya-Yi; Cao, Jian-Ping

    2012-06-01

    To provide the evidence for improving the risk assessment and personal protective equipment and techniques to laboratory staff related to Leishmania. The laboratory biosafety of Leishmania was preliminarily assessed based on the biological background information, potential hazards in experimental activities, the risk analyses of laboratory personnel and other relevant factors. The risk assessment on laboratory biosafety of Leishmania was helpful for the establishment of the laboratory standard operating procedure, and was helpful for protecting the staff from infection of Leishmania. The risk assessment on laboratory biosafety is important to the safety of laboratory activity related to Leishmania, and is of a great significance to protect the laboratory staff.

  15. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  16. Advances in risk assessment and communication.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Bernard D

    2005-01-01

    Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

  17. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  18. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  19. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  20. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  1. Earthworm biomarkers in ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sanchez-Hernandez, J C

    2006-01-01

    Earthworms have had a notable contribution in terrestrial ecotoxicology. They have been broadly used to assess environmental impact from metal pollution, and they are typical test organisms (e.g., Eisenia) in standardized toxicity tests. Several reviews and international workshops have stressed the need for increasing the understanding and applicability of earthworm biomarkers in the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process. This review summarizes recent available information concerning the most investigated earthworm biomarkers. In earthworms, the use of biomarkers has been focused on assessing metal pollution, and available data on biomarker responses to organic contaminants are rather limited. The potential for applying earthworm biomarkers in the standardized toxicity tests is suggested in view of their significant contribution to the risk assessment of contaminated soils (e.g., estimation of bioavailable and bioactive fraction or sublethal effects). Field studies involving earthworm biomarkers are still scarce and are summarized according to their main practical approaches in retrospective ERA: biological surveys, laboratory tests of the soil, simulated field studies, and in situ exposure bioassays. Despite the great volume of laboratory studies on earthworm biomarkers, future lines of research are suggested besides the recommendations made by others: (1) the potential and limitations of the inclusion of biomarkers in the standardized toxicity tests should be examined under a well-defined weight-of-evidence framework; (2) it is necessary to develop operating guidelines to standardize earthworm biomarker assays, an important step to apply biomarkers in a regulatory context; (3) molecular and physiological biomarkers should be directly linked to behavioral changes with significant ecological implications, an important step in considering them as ecotoxicological biomarkers; and (4) biomarkers to organic pollutants of current concern (e.g., polycyclic aromatic

  2. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  3. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  5. Psychological implications of high-risk pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Cumberbatch, Carla-Joy; Birndorf, Catherine; Dresner, Nehama

    2005-01-01

    The psychological adjustments of "normal" pregnancy are complex, and those of high-risk pregnancy are even more pronounced and severe. A pregnancy may be determined to be at high risk because of obstetric factors in previous pregnancies or the present one; more general medical factors, such as preexisting or emergent disease (often, diabetes); and conditions that are, themselves, psychosocial: anxiety disorders (GAD, OCD, panic disorder, PTSD), mood disorders, and schizophrenia, all of which are a background for a disturbed pregnancy and might complicate a pregnancy denominated high risk for some other reason. This paper discusses these concepts and, in addition, includes sections on pregnancy in adolescence, in the developmentally disabled, and in the situation of chemical dependence (substance abuse).

  6. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  7. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  8. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

  9. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  10. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  11. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  12. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  13. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  14. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  15. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  16. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  17. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  18. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  19. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: PCE DRY CLEANERS ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessement for the Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners source category. For stationary sources, section 112(f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate additional standards. The purpose of this document is to describe the methodology and results of teh residual risk assessment performed for the Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners source category. The results of this analysis will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  20. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  1. Assessing risk from a stakeholder perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, L. P.

    2003-01-01

    Planetary exploration missions are subject to a vast array of interpretations of 'success' based on the concerns of multiple stakeholder groups. While project risk management generally focuses on issues of cost/schedule constraints or reliability issues, a broader interpretation of 'risk' as it applies to stakeholders such as sponsors (e.g., NASA), the public at large, the scientific community, the home organization, and the project team itself can provide important insights into the full spectrum of risk that needs to be managed. This paper presents a stakeholder view of risk which is divided into failure, not-a-failure, success, and stunning-success zones. Using the Mars Pathfinder mission as an example, an alternative interpretation of the risks to that mission is presented from the view of key stakeholders. The implications of the stakeholder perspective to project risk management are addressed.

  2. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  3. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  4. Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

  5. Predicting the use of Individualized Risk Assessment for Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Bartle-Haring, Suzanne; Toviessi, Paula; Katafiasz, Heather

    2008-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the decision to obtain individualized risk assessment after a breast cancer education session. Methods A sample of both African American and Caucasian women was used to determine if there were differences by race/ethnicity in uptake of the assessment and differences in the variables that were most predictive of uptake. The sample included 166 women between the ages of 18 and 80. Sixty-two percent of the sample were African American women. Key Findings The results suggested that African American women and Caucasian women used different factors and used other factors differently to decide whether or not to obtain an individualized risk assessment. Conclusions and Implications These results are discussed within the context of health disparities among ethnic minority and Caucasian women with implications for breast cancer control programs. The results of this study would suggest that knowledge alone does not lead to opting for a personalized risk assessment, and that African American and Caucasian women use different pieces of information, or information differently to make decision about getting more personalized information about risk. PMID:18319147

  6. Guidelines for Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These Guidelines set forth principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in evaluating environmental contaminants that may pose neurotoxic risks, and inform Agency decision makers and the public about these procedures.

  7. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    MedlinePlus

    ... Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page Options Print Page Quick Links Colon and Rectal Cancer Home Page Colon and Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps ...

  8. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  9. Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dong; Liu, Jing; Xie, Wuxiang; Qi, Yue

    2015-05-01

    An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

  10. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  11. Assessment and Self-Injury: Implications for Counselors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craigen, Laurie M.; Healey, Amanda C.; Walley, Cynthia T.; Byrd, Rebekah; Schuster, Jennifer

    2010-01-01

    This article provides readers with an understanding of self-injury assessment. The article begins with a critical review of a number of self-injury assessments. The latter section of the article introduces a comprehensive two-tiered approach to accurately assessing self-injury. Implications for counselors related to the assessment of self-injury…

  12. EPA ACTIVITIES TO PREPARE FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS INFORMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Genomics will have significant implications for risk assessment and regulatory decision making. Since 2002, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a number of cross-Agency activities to further prepare itself to receive,interpret and apply genomics information for risk assessment and regul...

  13. EPA ACTIVITIES TO PREPARE FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS INFORMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Genomics will have significant implications for risk assessment and regulatory decision making. Since 2002, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a number of cross-Agency activities to further prepare itself to receive,interpret and apply genomics information for risk assessment and regul...

  14. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  15. Self-Control Assessments and Implications for Predicting Adolescent Offending.

    PubMed

    Fine, Adam; Steinberg, Laurence; Frick, Paul J; Cauffman, Elizabeth

    2016-04-01

    Although low self-control is consistently related to adolescent offending, it is unknown whether self-report measures or laboratory behavior tasks yield better predictive utility, or if a combination yields incremental predictive power. This is particularly important because developmental theory indicates that self-control is related to adolescent offending and, consequently, risk assessments rely on self-control measures. The present study (a) examines relationships between self-reported self-control on the Weinberger Adjustment Inventory with Go/No-Go response inhibition, and (b) compares the predictive utility of both assessment strategies for short- and long-term adolescent reoffending. It uses longitudinal data from the Crossroads Study of male, first-time adolescent offenders ages 13-17 (N = 930; 46 % Hispanic/Latino, 37 % Black/African-American, 15 % non-Hispanic White, 2 % other race). The results of the study indicate that the measures are largely unrelated, and that the self-report measure is a better indicator of both short- and long-term reoffending. The laboratory task measure does not add value to what is already predicted by the self-report measure. Implications for assessing self-control during adolescence and consequences of assessment strategy are discussed.

  16. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  17. Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

    PubMed

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

    2014-05-01

    To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

  18. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  19. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

  20. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  1. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  2. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, P<0.001) . Evaluation results of two risk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  3. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  4. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  5. Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.

    PubMed

    Rettenberger, Martin; Matthes, Anna; Boer, Douglas P; Eher, Reinhard

    2010-04-01

    This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

  6. The risk management implications of NUREG--1150 methods and results

    SciTech Connect

    Camp, A.L.; Maloney, K.J.; Sype, T.T. )

    1989-09-01

    This report describes the potential uses of NUREG-1150 and similar Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) in NRC and industry risk management programs. NUREG-1150 uses state-of-the-art PRA techniques to estimate the risk from five nuclear power plants. The methods and results produced in NUREG-1150 provide a framework within which current risk management strategies can be evaluated, and future risk management programs can be developed and assessed. While the development of plant-specific risk management strategies is beyond the scope of this document, examples of the use of the NUREG-1150 framework for identifying and evaluating risk management options are presented. All phases of risk management from prevention of initiating events though reduction of offsite consequences are discussed, with particular attention given to the early phase of accidents. 14 refs., 9 figs., 28 tabs.

  7. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  8. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  9. ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

    waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

    designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

  10. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  11. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Biwer, B M; Butler, J P

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  12. Assessing Risk in Graphically Presented Financial Series.

    PubMed

    Sobolev, Daphne; Harvey, Nigel

    2016-12-01

    It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series. Graphs with lower Hurst exponents were selected only by those who were less emotionally stable and hence more sensitive to risk. However, when both price series and price change series were presented, the assets with lower Hurst exponents were selected by all participants. In a second experiment, participants were given both price level and price change series for a number of assets and rated the risk of trading in each one. Ratings depended more strongly on Hurst exponents than on other measures of volatility. They also depended on indicators of potential loss. Human risk assessment deviates from the way that risk is measured in modern finance theory: it requires integration of information relevant to both uncertainty and loss aversion, thereby imposing high attentional demands on traders. These demands may impair risk assessment but they can be eased by adding displays of price change information.

  13. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  14. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  15. USE OF TOXICOGENOMICS DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The goal of this project is to address the question, “Can existing toxicogenomics (TG) data improve Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chemical health or risk assessments?” Although genomics data promises to impact multiple areas of science, medicine, law, and policy, there are only a few areas where genomics data currently has application (e.g., biomarkers of disease). As the technology continues to advance, EPA will need to prepare for genomics data availability and submission by: 1) identifying areas of risk assessment where such data may be particularly useful; 2) developing acceptance criteria for inclusion of toxicogenomics data in risk assessment; and 3) developing approaches for the use of toxicogenomics in risk assessment. These needs will likely require an iterative and collaborative research process between risk assessors and scientists (inside and outside the Agency). At the NCEA sponsored Genomics and Risk Assessment Colloquium in 2003, one of the recommendations was to conduct case studies that could provide a practical attempt to incorporate currently available toxicogenomics data that would illuminate issues and the methods development. This project is responds to this recommendation. To address the question of whether TG data can improve health risk assessments, a case study will be performed in which TG data for one chemical will be incorporated qualitatively within the hazard characterization step of a recent or ongoing EPA chemical he

  16. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  17. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

  18. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  19. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  20. NUREG-1150 risk assessment results

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Kunsman, D.M.; Boyd, G.J.; Lewis, S.R.; Amos, C.N.; Smith, L.N.

    1987-01-01

    The methodology developed in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) evaluation of severe accident risks in NUREG-1150 is noted. This paper discusses the results. The principal technical analyses for NUREG-1150 were performed at Sandia National Labs. under the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program and the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program. The analyses have been completed so far for four reference plants: (a) a pressurized water reactor (PWR) with a dry, subatmospheric containment (Surry Unit 1), (b) a PWR with an ice condenser containment (Sequoyah Unit 1), (c) a boiling water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom Unit 2), and (d) a BWR with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf Unit 1). A fifth NUREG-1150 plant, a PWR with a large, dry containment (Zion Unit 1), has been evaluated separately by Brookhaven National Lab. Sample risk results for one of the plants (Surry) are presented. The results for Sequoyah, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf are broadly compared with those for Surry.

  1. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  2. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  3. High-energy gamma rays in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: implications for risk and WR.

    PubMed

    Straume, T

    1995-12-01

    Based on the DS86 dosimetry system, nearly all of the dose to survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was due to unusually high-energy gamma rays, predominantly in the 2- to 5-MeV range. These high energies resulted in part from neutron capture gamma rays as the bomb neutrons penetrated large distances of air. Because of the inverse relationship between energy and biological effectiveness, these high-energy gamma rays are expected to be substantially less effective in producing biological damage than the radiations commonly used in radiobiology and risk assessment. This observation has implications for radiation protection and risk assessment.

  4. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-01

    RFI - Request for Information...Cost Uncertainty S&T Community • Identify Technologies • Assess Readiness Levels PM •System Concepts •Program ScheduleIn p u ts to R is k A ss...es sm en t Develop Cost Estimate S u m m a ri ze R is k A s s e s s m e n ts In te rd e p e n d e n c ie s 14 o Assess the transition times

  5. An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.

    PubMed

    Aven, Terje

    2017-09-07

    To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  7. Guidelines for Reproductive Toxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These guidelines discuss the scientific basis for concern about exposure to agents that cause reproductive toxicity and describe the principles and procedures to be followed in conducting risk assessments for reproductive toxicity.

  8. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John; Mitchell, Roger; Binning, David; Meszaros, Jenny

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  9. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva. PMID:23505756

  10. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  11. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  12. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  13. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  14. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  15. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  16. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  17. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  18. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  19. [Risk assessment in upper limb overload].

    PubMed

    Martinelli, R; Casilli, A; Fanelli, C; Pizzuti, S; Tarquini, M; Tobia, L; Paoletti, A

    2007-01-01

    One of the most important factors of the work-related musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities (WMSDs) is the biomechanical overload. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the possibility to predict the upper limb repetitive stress, according to risk assessment procedures. In order to this aim, we gathered clinical-anamnestic data and risk assessment considerations of a cohort of workers in a car industry.

  20. A Statewide Writing Assessment Model: Student Proficiency and Future Implications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dappen, Leon; Isernhagen, Jody; Anderson, Sue

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an examination of statewide district writing achievement gain data from the Nebraska Statewide Writing Assessment system and implications for statewide assessment writing models. The writing assessment program is used to gain compliance with the United States No Child Left Behind Law (NCLB), a federal effort to influence school…

  1. Risk assessment as standard work in design.

    PubMed

    Morrill, Patricia W

    2013-01-01

    This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

  2. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  3. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  4. Threat Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-02-15

    Threat-Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks Richard P. Lippmann and James F. Riordan Protecting enterprise networks requires... enterprises to make sure that risks from all current threats are addressed, many organizations adopt a best-practices approach by installing popular...effective when performed by skilled security practitioners who understand an enterprise network, can enumerate all threats and their likelihoods, and

  5. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  6. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  7. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  8. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  9. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  10. Preoperative optimization and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Nicholas, Joseph A

    2014-05-01

    Because most older adults with hip fractures require urgent surgical intervention, the preoperative medical evaluation focuses on the exclusion of the small number of contraindications to surgery, and rapid optimization of patients for operative repair. Although many geriatric fracture patients have significant chronic medical comorbidities, most patients can be safely stabilized for surgery with medical and orthopedic comanagement by anticipating a small number of common physiologic responses and perioperative complications. In addition to estimating perioperative risk, the team should focus on intravascular volume restoration, pain control, and avoidance of perioperative hypotension. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Legal and institutional considerations in the application of ecological risk assessment at Department of Energy facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Bilyard, G.R.; Bascietto, J.; Beckert, H.

    1992-10-01

    As defined in EPA`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment, ecological risk assessment is a promising tool that DOE can use to help meet its legal and institutional obligations during remediation and restoration activities. The adoption of ecological risk assessment as a tool for meeting legal and societal obligations, and as a means of providing information for resource management decisions has several implications for DOE, including the need to define a process for using ecological risk assessment to support regulatory compliance and institutionally mandated activities. This paper first identifies regulatory requirements and institutional considerations that could be important to DOE, and that could be supported by ecological risk assessments. Considering this set of regulatory requirements and institutional considerations, the often complex characteristics of DOE sites, and the elements of EPA`s ecological risk assessment framework, a process for using ecological risk assessment at DOE sites is then proposed.

  12. Legal and institutional considerations in the application of ecological risk assessment at Department of Energy facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Bilyard, G.R. ); Bascietto, J.; Beckert, H. )

    1992-10-01

    As defined in EPA's Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment, ecological risk assessment is a promising tool that DOE can use to help meet its legal and institutional obligations during remediation and restoration activities. The adoption of ecological risk assessment as a tool for meeting legal and societal obligations, and as a means of providing information for resource management decisions has several implications for DOE, including the need to define a process for using ecological risk assessment to support regulatory compliance and institutionally mandated activities. This paper first identifies regulatory requirements and institutional considerations that could be important to DOE, and that could be supported by ecological risk assessments. Considering this set of regulatory requirements and institutional considerations, the often complex characteristics of DOE sites, and the elements of EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, a process for using ecological risk assessment at DOE sites is then proposed.

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  14. Review of Environmental Assessment Case Studies Blending Elements of Risk Assessment and Life Cycle Assessment.

    PubMed

    Harder, Robin; Holmquist, Hanna; Molander, Sverker; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2015-11-17

    Risk assessment (RA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are two analytical tools used to support decision making in environmental management. This study reviewed 30 environmental assessment case studies that claimed an integration, combination, hybridization, or complementary use of RA and LCA. The focus of the analysis was on how the respective case studies evaluated emissions of chemical pollutants and pathogens. The analysis revealed three clusters of similar case studies. Yet, there seemed to be little consensus as to what should be referred to as RA and LCA, and when to speak of combination, integration, hybridization, or complementary use of RA and LCA. This paper provides clear recommendations toward a more stringent and consistent use of terminology. Blending elements of RA and LCA offers multifaceted opportunities to adapt a given environmental assessment case study to a specific decision making context, but also requires awareness of several implications and potential pitfalls, of which six are discussed in this paper. To facilitate a better understanding and more transparent communication of the nature of a given case study, this paper proposes a "design space" (i.e., identification framework) for environmental assessment case studies blending elements of RA and LCA. Thinking in terms of a common design space, we postulate, can increase clarity and transparency when communicating the design and results of a given assessment together with its potential strengths and weaknesses.

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

  16. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    PubMed Central

    MacDonell, Margaret M.; Haroun, Lynne A.; Teuschler, Linda K.; Rice, Glenn E.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Butler, James P.; Chang, Young-Soo; Clark, Shanna L.; Johns, Alan P.; Perry, Camarie S.; Garcia, Shannon S.; Jacobi, John H.; Scofield, Marcienne A.

    2013-01-01

    The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) environmental fate and transport; (3) exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4) toxicity analysis; and (5) risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities. PMID:23762048

  17. Total Quality Management: Implications for Educational Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rankin, Stuart C.

    1992-01-01

    Deming's "System of Profound Knowledge" is even more fundamental than his 14-principle system transformation guide and is based on 4 elements: systems theory, statistical variation, a theory of knowledge, and psychology. Management should revamp total system processes so that quality of product is continually improved. Implications for…

  18. Total Quality Management: Implications for Educational Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rankin, Stuart C.

    1992-01-01

    Deming's "System of Profound Knowledge" is even more fundamental than his 14-principle system transformation guide and is based on 4 elements: systems theory, statistical variation, a theory of knowledge, and psychology. Management should revamp total system processes so that quality of product is continually improved. Implications for…

  19. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  20. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.