Science.gov

Sample records for risk assessment integrated

  1. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  2. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  3. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  4. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  5. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  6. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  7. INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

  8. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome.

  9. An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

  10. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Bruno, Michael

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  11. The Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment Project: A New Way of Looking at Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Unks, Ruth A.; Thor, Linda

    2008-01-01

    This article reviews the Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment (MIRA) project and discusses its challenges and successes. Strategies and resources are offered for assisting community college administrators, faculty, and staff to successfully implement enterprise risk management at their institutions.

  12. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  13. Advancing human health risk assessment: Integrating recent advisory committee recommendations

    PubMed Central

    Becker, Richard A.; Haber, Lynne T.; Pottenger, Lynn H.; Bredfeldt, Tiffany; Fenner-Crisp, Penelope A.

    2013-01-01

    Over the last dozen years, many national and international expert groups have considered specific improvements to risk assessment. Many of their stated recommendations are mutually supportive, but others appear conflicting, at least in an initial assessment. This review identifies areas of consensus and difference and recommends a practical, biology-centric course forward, which includes: (1) incorporating a clear problem formulation at the outset of the assessment with a level of complexity that is appropriate for informing the relevant risk management decision; (2) using toxicokinetics and toxicodynamic information to develop Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF); (3) using mode of action (MOA) information and an understanding of the relevant biology as the key, central organizing principle for the risk assessment; (4) integrating MOA information into dose–response assessments using existing guidelines for non-cancer and cancer assessments; (5) using a tiered, iterative approach developed by the World Health Organization/International Programme on Chemical Safety (WHO/IPCS) as a scientifically robust, fit-for-purpose approach for risk assessment of combined exposures (chemical mixtures); and (6) applying all of this knowledge to enable interpretation of human biomonitoring data in a risk context. While scientifically based defaults will remain important and useful when data on CSAF or MOA to refine an assessment are absent or insufficient, assessments should always strive to use these data. The use of available 21st century knowledge of biological processes, clinical findings, chemical interactions, and dose–response at the molecular, cellular, organ and organism levels will minimize the need for extrapolation and reliance on default approaches. PMID:23844697

  14. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  15. Integrated Assessment of Risk Reduction for Coastal Cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBean, G.

    2011-12-01

    Coastal cities are among the world's most vulnerable communities and as their populations grow and the sea level rise, their vulnerability is increasing. Recent examples include the Japanese earthquake, the Indian Ocean tsunami, the typhoons in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Taiwan and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. This paper will discuss the exposure, vulnerability and hazards affecting large coastal cities and the role of a changing climate in their modification. A key question is what lessons have been learned and where future research should lay its emphasis. Through START and the new Canadian-funded project for Bangkok, Manila, Lagos and Vancouver, Coastal Cities at Risk research is advancing and an integrated assessment approach is being proposed to analyse options for risk reduction and will be described in this paper.

  16. Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

    PubMed

    Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

    2016-08-08

    Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries.

  17. Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

  18. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

  19. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  20. Integratively Assessing Risk and Protective Factors for Adolescent Suicide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gutierrez, Peter M.

    2006-01-01

    This article briefly reviews key issues in adolescent suicide risk assessment and proposes that assessing risk and protective factors in combination has the best probability of informing the field's understanding of this complex problem. Several newer measures are described along with summaries of their psychometric properties. A recommended…

  1. INTEGRATING EPIDEMIOLOGY AND TOXICOLOGY IN NEUROTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessments depend on the best available scientific information, including data from animal toxicity, human experimental studies and human epidemiology studies. There are several factors to consider when evaluating the comparability of data from studies. Reg...

  2. INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS OF AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    The UNEP/ILO/WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) have developed a collaborative partnership to foster integration of assessment approaches to ...

  3. INTEGRATION OF HUMAN HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) have developed a collaborative partnership to foster integration of assessment approaches to evaluate ...

  4. FRAMEWORK FOR THE INTEGRATION OF HEALTH AND ECOLOIGCAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The World Health Organization's International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have developed a collaborative partnership to foster integration; of assessment approa...

  5. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  6. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  7. Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pásztor, László; Négyesi, Gábor; Laborczi, Annamária; Kovács, Tamás; László, Elemér; Bihari, Zita

    2016-11-01

    Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover). Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5' resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH) method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0-5 cm) layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc.), to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

  8. Inclusion of bioaccumulation in environmental risk assessment: An integrated approach

    SciTech Connect

    Kloepper-Sams, P.J.; Cowan, C.E.; Larson, R.J.; Versteeg, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Historically, the potential to bioaccumulate has been ignored in risk assessments or assessed in isolation. Bioaccumulation can be included in an integrated approach by posing two questions. (1) Is the duration of acute aquatic testing sufficient to identify effects due to direct exposure? This can be addressed by comparing T95 (time to reach 95% of steady state) with test duration. (2) Do dietary sources contribute substantially to exposure; is so, will this affect organisms higher in the food web? This can be addressed in stages. (1) A suitable QSAR can be employed to estimate the Bioconcentration Factor (BCF). Because aquatic dietary exposure to non-ionic, poorly metabolized organics is not significant for compounds with log K{sub ow} below {approximately}4.5--5, only compounds with BCF > 1,000 (log K{sub ow} {approximately}4.3) are further evaluated. (2) Predicted BCFs may be refined by measuring the predictive parameter (e.g., K{sub ow}) or the BCF. (3) If the ``parent`` BCF remains > 1,000, a food chain model is employed to derive bioaccumulation factors (BAF) which may be achieved in the food web of interest. The BAF is then combined with Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC) values to derive a PECoral or concentration available in prey. This is then compared with a Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC)oral for consumer organism(s). Mammalian toxicity databases on new and HVP existing chemicals may assist in deriving the PNECoral. (4) Further refinement of the PECoral or PNECoral may be needed. Mitigating circumstances such as metabolism and reduced bioavailability must also be considered. Such an approach may be necessary for a subset of chemicals and would be tailored dependent on chemical use, release, environmental fate -- especially persistence -- and distribution.

  9. Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment for Risk Governance Purposes; Across What Do We Integrate?

    PubMed

    Lebret, Erik

    2015-12-23

    Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) can be considered as an element in the third phase of environmental risk management. Its focus is on providing inclusive descriptions of multiple impacts from multiple stressors in such a way that they can be evaluated against the potential societal benefits of the causes of the stressors. This paper emphasises some differences and difficulties in the integration across professional paradigms and scientific fields, across stakeholder perspectives and differences in impact indicators that emanate from these different fields and paradigms.

  10. Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment for Risk Governance Purposes; Across What Do We Integrate?

    PubMed Central

    Lebret, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) can be considered as an element in the third phase of environmental risk management. Its focus is on providing inclusive descriptions of multiple impacts from multiple stressors in such a way that they can be evaluated against the potential societal benefits of the causes of the stressors. This paper emphasises some differences and difficulties in the integration across professional paradigms and scientific fields, across stakeholder perspectives and differences in impact indicators that emanate from these different fields and paradigms. PMID:26703709

  11. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  12. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  13. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

  14. Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

  15. INTEGRATING EPIDEMIOLOGY AND TOXICOLOGY IN NEUROTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT.

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript provides an overview of the use of data from toxicology and epidemiology studies for neurotoxicity risk assessment. Parameters such as the use of subjects, study designs, exposures, and measured outcomes are compared and contrasted. The main concern for use of d...

  16. INTEGRATION OF PATHOLOGY AND TOXICOLOGY IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to develop a scientifically defensible assessment of the risk for the development of cancer after long-term exposure to xenobiotics, regulatory agencies have adopted a uniform approach which includes the characterization of a carcinogenic mode of action and its biologica...

  17. Integration of QbD risk assessment tools and overall risk management.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Brian; Cromwell, Mary; Jerkins, Joe

    2016-09-01

    Quality by design (QbD) is a global regulatory initiative with the goal of enhancing pharmaceutical development through the proactive design of pharmaceutical manufacturing process and controls to consistently deliver the intended performance of the product. The principles of pharmaceutical development relevant to QbD are described in the ICH guidance documents (ICHQ8-11). An integrated set of risk assessments and related elements developed at Roche/Genentech were designed to provide an overview of product and process knowledge for the production of a recombinant monoclonal antibody. This chapter describes how the risk assessments, logic and interactions of the tools are designed to connect the set of QbD tools and elements into an overarching risk management system. The tools allow comparisons of options based on elective decisions that the sponsor could take and reflect relative values of these options. The overall risk management strategy assures product quality from this enhanced set of assessments and employs a science and risk based approach resulting in a consistent and transparent set of process and product controls and a rational monitoring system.

  18. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  19. Integrated risk assessment and risk governance as socio-political phenomena: a synthetic view of the challenges.

    PubMed

    Assmuth, Timo; Hildén, Mikael; Benighaus, Christina

    2010-08-15

    To call for integration in risk assessment and governance as a self-evident goal is deceptively easy. For more insight, we ask: what level and kind of integration and for what purposes is needed and sufficient? What opportunities and obstacles can be identified for integrative treatment of risks? What causes and impacts are there of developments in risk integration? To answer these questions we investigate the socio-political processes and factors surrounding integrated risk assessment and risk governance through a combination of literature reviews and original research. We emphasize regulatory assessment and governance of risks associated with chemicals in the EU, but we link them with other areas to better grasp options and problems in integration. We relate the problems to political factors and barriers in sector and vertical integration, including deviating interests, and further to conflicting information, concepts and mindsets. Risk assessment and risk governance involve varying notions of risks and knowledge, with tensions between stressor- or impact-oriented, exclusive or inclusive, positivist or relativist, and fixed or reflexive notions and approaches. These tensions influence the trajectories of integration between sectors, actors and regions, constraining the fulfillment of ideals of integrated governance. We conclude that risk assessment and governance can be integrated, harmonized and innovated to a limit only, but this limit is variable and flexible, and provides opportunities especially if attention is paid to the socio-political contexts, value choices and decision structures in each case. Generally, the results underline a reflexive approach whereby the meanings, framings and implications of risk integration are probed in open processes of deliberation and negotiation, as a learning process to transcend the formal and prescriptive modes of regulation and knowledge generation.

  20. Beyond REACH: roadblocks and shortcuts en route to integrated risk assessment and management of chemicals.

    PubMed

    Assmuth, Timo; Hildén, Mikael; Craye, Matthieu

    2010-08-15

    This paper addresses obstacles and opportunities for the development and application of novel methods for integrated assessment of cumulative risks from chemicals, exemplified by the REACH legislation of the EU, in the context of multiple stressors and of chemicals policy. We examine the role of such methods in connection with REACH by models of integration and innovation of risk information in multi-actor risk governance; analyses of key documents on REACH; and interviews with EU regulators and stakeholders. We first explain the emergence of REACH as a response to tensions in EU chemicals, environmental and other policies. We then analyze the present configuration of REACH particularly in relation to key dimensions of risk integration: across stressors; exposed organisms; and impacts. Among the policy aspects of integrated risk information, we focus on its interaction with management and the contesting framings and interpretations of assessment. Avenues and barriers are identified for integrated treatment of risks under REACH and with other instruments. We emphasize how bounded, formal and static assessments interact with open and informal approaches that have more flexibility in integrating risks in new ways. We conclude with a generalizing discussion on the role of novel methods of integrated risk assessment in the development of reflexive and participatory governance under REACH and beyond.

  1. The Integrated Medical Model - A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles G.; Saile, Lynn; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2010-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight.

  2. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  3. A comparison between integrated risk assessment and classical health/environmental assessment: Emerging beneficial properties

    SciTech Connect

    Sekizawa, Jun . E-mail: sekizawa@ias.tokushima-u.ac.jp; Tanabe, Shinsuke

    2005-09-01

    Both humans and wildlife are exposed to various types of halogenated organic compounds such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), typically old chemicals, and tris(4-chlorophenyl) methane (TCPM) and brominated flame retardants, some new chemicals, simultaneously. Classical risk assessment has evaluated health and ecological risks independently by experts from different disciplines. Taking into considerations the recent concerns about endocrine disrupting chemicals and the progress of research in related areas, we integrated and assessed data on exposure and potential effects in humans and wildlife. Comparisons were made for organ concentrations, body burdens of several organochlorine compounds (OCs), metabolic capacities between humans and various wildlife. When we integrate the knowledge on effects and exposure in humans and in wildlife, new insights were suggested about similarities and/or differences in potential effects among various human populations living on different foods and having different body burdens. Combining existing information with emerging knowledge of mechanisms of actions on endocrine disrupting chemicals after exposure to above chemicals during early developmental stages will further elucidate potential risks from exposure to those chemicals.

  4. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

    PubMed Central

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-01-01

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

  5. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

    PubMed

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-11-13

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

  6. Integration of Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saile, Lyn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; Kerstman, Eric; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: A probabilistic decision support model such as the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes an immense amount of input data that necessitates a systematic, integrated approach for data collection, and management. As a result of this approach, IMM is able to forecasts medical events, resource utilization and crew health during space flight. METHODS: Inflight data is the most desirable input for the Integrated Medical Model. Non-attributable inflight data is collected from the Lifetime Surveillance for Astronaut Health study as well as the engineers, flight surgeons, and astronauts themselves. When inflight data is unavailable cohort studies, other models and Bayesian analyses are used, in addition to subject matters experts input on occasion. To determine the quality of evidence of a medical condition, the data source is categorized and assigned a level of evidence from 1-5; the highest level is one. The collected data reside and are managed in a relational SQL database with a web-based interface for data entry and review. The database is also capable of interfacing with outside applications which expands capabilities within the database itself. Via the public interface, customers can access a formatted Clinical Findings Form (CLiFF) that outlines the model input and evidence base for each medical condition. Changes to the database are tracked using a documented Configuration Management process. DISSCUSSION: This strategic approach provides a comprehensive data management plan for IMM. The IMM Database s structure and architecture has proven to support additional usages. As seen by the resources utilization across medical conditions analysis. In addition, the IMM Database s web-based interface provides a user-friendly format for customers to browse and download the clinical information for medical conditions. It is this type of functionality that will provide Exploratory Medicine Capabilities the evidence base for their medical condition list

  7. Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaomei; Van Der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G; Ritsema, Coen J; Geissen, Violette

    2016-05-01

    Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide displacement by runoff and erosion that explicitly accounts for water infiltration, erosion, runoff, and pesticide transport and degradation in soil. The conceptual framework was based on broadly accepted assumptions such as the convection-dispersion equation and lognormal distributions of soil properties associated with transport, sorption, degradation, and erosion. To illustrate the concept, a few assumptions are made with regard to runoff in relatively flat agricultural fields: dispersion is ignored and erosion is modelled by a functional relationship. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the total mass of pesticide associated with soil eroded by water scouring increased with slope, rain intensity, and water field capacity of the soil. The mass of transported pesticide decreased as the micro-topography of the soil surface became more distinct. The timing of pesticide spraying and rate of degradation before erosion negatively affected the total amount of transported pesticide. The mechanisms involved in pesticide displacement, such as runoff, infiltration, soil erosion, and pesticide transport and decay in the topsoil, were all explicitly accounted for, so the mathematical complexity of their description can be high, depending on the situation.

  8. Probabilistic integrated risk assessment of human exposure risk to environmental bisphenol A pollution sources.

    PubMed

    Fu, Keng-Yen; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Chio, Chia-Pin; Liao, Chung-Min

    2016-10-01

    Environmental bisphenol A (BPA) exposure has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects such as developmental and reproductive issues. However, establishing a clear association between BPA and the likelihood of human health is complex yet fundamentally uncertain. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential exposure risks from environmental BPA among Chinese population based on five human health outcomes, namely immune response, uterotrophic assay, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and behavior change. We addressed these health concerns by using a stochastic integrated risk assessment approach. The BPA dose-dependent likelihood of effects was reconstructed by a series of Hill models based on animal models or epidemiological data. We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that allows estimation of urinary BPA concentration from external exposures. Here we showed that the daily average exposure concentrations of BPA and urinary BPA estimates were consistent with the published data. We found that BPA exposures were less likely to pose significant risks for infants (0-1 year) and adults (male and female >20 years) with <10(-6)-fold increase in uterus weight and immune response outcomes, respectively. Moreover, our results indicated that there was 50 % risk probability that the response outcomes of CVD, diabetes, and behavior change with or without skin absorption would increase 10(-4)-10(-2)-fold. We conclude that our approach provides a powerful tool for tracking and managing human long-term BPA susceptibility in relation to multiple exposure pathways, and for informing the public of the negligible magnitude of environmental BPA pollution impacts on human health.

  9. Decision analytic strategies for integrating ecosystem services and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    von Stackelberg, Katherine E

    2013-04-01

    Ecosystem services as a concept and guiding principle are enjoying wide popularity and endorsement from high-level policy thinkers to industry as support for sustainability goals continue to grow. However, explicit incorporation of ecosystem services into decision making still lacks practical implementation at more local scales and faces significant regulatory and technical constraints. Risk assessment represents an example of a regulatory process for which guidance exists that makes it challenging to incorporate ecosystem service endpoints. Technical constraints exist in the quantification of the relationships between ecological functions and services and endpoints valued by humans, and the complexity of those interactions with respect to bundling and stacking. In addition, ecosystem services, by their very definition, represent an anthropogenic construct with no inherent ecological value, which, in practical terms, requires a far more inclusionary decision making process explicitly incorporating a greater diversity of stakeholder values. Despite these constraints, it is possible, given a commitment to sustainable decision making, to simplify the process based on strategic outcomes (e.g., identifying desired end-states in general terms). Decision analytic techniques provide a mechanism for evaluating tradeoffs across key ecosystem services valued by stakeholders and to develop criteria drawn from the entire spectrum of stakeholders in evaluating potential alternatives. This article highlights several examples of ways in which ecosystem service endpoints can be incorporated into the decision-making process.

  10. An Integrated Soft Computing Approach to Hughes Syndrome Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Vilhena, João; Rosário Martins, M; Vicente, Henrique; Grañeda, José M; Caldeira, Filomena; Gusmão, Rodrigo; Neves, João; Neves, José

    2017-03-01

    The AntiPhospholipid Syndrome (APS) is an acquired autoimmune disorder induced by high levels of antiphospholipid antibodies that cause arterial and veins thrombosis, as well as pregnancy-related complications and morbidity, as clinical manifestations. This autoimmune hypercoagulable state, usually known as Hughes syndrome, has severe consequences for the patients, being one of the main causes of thrombotic disorders and death. Therefore, it is required to be preventive; being aware of how probable is to have that kind of syndrome. Despite the updated of antiphospholipid syndrome classification, the diagnosis remains difficult to establish. Additional research on clinically relevant antibodies and standardization of their quantification are required in order to improve the antiphospholipid syndrome risk assessment. Thus, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a computational framework based on Artificial Neural Networks. The proposed model allows for improving the diagnosis, classifying properly the patients that really presented this pathology (sensitivity higher than 85%), as well as classifying the absence of APS (specificity close to 95%).

  11. The integrated assessment of occupational risks in a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant.

    PubMed

    Attaianese, Erminia; Duca, Gabriella

    2012-01-01

    Pharmaceutical plants are usually characterized by workplaces with quality levels generally higher than in other manufactoring sectors since healthcare products need to be produced in special conditions, keeping under a strong control hygiene, chemical and biological contaminants, and giving a particular emphasis on equipment maintenance. Limited physical work load, a low rate of injuries and work related pathologies together with a high level of quality process control contribute to consider pharma work conditions as generally light and safe. In this kind of contexts risk assessment cannot be based on factors individually considered, neither work load can be essentially measured on material handling and physical effort. Risk assessment and work environment improvements, on the contrary, have to be studied by an integrated view point. The paper presents methodologies and results of the applied research project IntegrARE (INTEGRated Assessment of Risks within Ergonomics) aimed at analyzing, in a big solid forms pharmaceutical plant, three different risk categories - architectural, ergonomic and active pharmaceutical ingredients risks - in order to highlight possible interactions on workers health, safety and wellbeing. After a detailed risk situations survey, singularly analyzed by a number of ad-hoc procedures, the study presents a methodology for integrated assessment of risks, aimed at identifying and evaluating integrated effects increasing or triggering risk situations for workers.

  12. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; ter Braak, Cajo J. F.

    2015-06-01

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

  13. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

  14. Integrated Laboratory and Field Investigations: Assessing Contaminant Risk to American Badgers

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript provides an example of integrated laboratory and field approach to complete a toxicological ecological risk assessment at the landscape level. The core findings from the study demonstrate how radio telemetry data can allow for ranking the relative risks of contam...

  15. Strategic Risk Assessment using the Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model (IRAMM)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-01

    that event. Large scale operations in IW are extremely unlikely. Alternative Viewpoints Irregular Warfare 27 Greater Risk Viewpoint Lesser...WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Institute for Defense Analyses,4850 Mark Center Dr,Alexandria,VA,22311 8... PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S

  16. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-Ya; Li, Xiao-Li; Wang, Da-Zhou; Li, Yu

    2013-10-15

    A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including "residential land" and "industrial land" environmental guidelines under "strict" and "loose" strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

  17. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    SciTech Connect

    Euling, Susan Y.; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Benson, Robert

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  18. The Application of Integrated Knowledge-based Systems for the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, Karin C.; Ly, Bebe; Webster, Laurie; Verlander, James; Taylor, Gerald R.; Riley, Gary; Culbert, Chris; Holden, Tina; Rudisill, Marianne

    1993-01-01

    One of NASA's goals for long duration space flight is to maintain acceptable levels of crew health, safety, and performance. One way of meeting this goal is through the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN), an integrated network of both human and computer elements. The BRAIN will function as an advisor to flight surgeons by assessing the risk of in-flight biomedical problems and recommending appropriate countermeasures. This paper describes the joint effort among various NASA elements to develop BRAIN and an Infectious Disease Risk Assessment (IDRA) prototype. The implementation of this effort addresses the technological aspects of the following: (1) knowledge acquisition; (2) integration of IDRA components; (3) use of expert systems to automate the biomedical prediction process; (4) development of a user-friendly interface; and (5) integration of the IDRA prototype and Exercise Countermeasures Intelligent System (ExerCISys). Because the C Language, CLIPS (the C Language Integrated Production System), and the X-Window System were portable and easily integrated, they were chosen as the tools for the initial IDRA prototype. The feasibility was tested by developing an IDRA prototype that predicts the individual risk of influenza. The application of knowledge-based systems to risk assessment is of great market value to the medical technology industry.

  19. Integrating groundwater into land planning: a risk assessment methodology.

    PubMed

    Lavoie, Roxane; Joerin, Florent; Vansnick, Jean-Claude; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2015-05-01

    Generally, groundwater is naturally of good quality for human consumption and represents an essential source of drinking water. In Canada, small municipalities and individuals are particularly reliant on groundwater, since they cannot afford complex water treatment installations. However, groundwater is a vulnerable resource that, depending on its characteristics, can be contaminated by almost any land use. In recent decades, governments have launched programs to acquire more information on groundwater, in order to better protect it. Nevertheless, the data produced are rarely adequate to be understood and used by land planners. The aim of this study was to develop a method that helps planners interpret hydrogeological data in the Province of Quebec, Canada. Based on the requests and needs of planners during semi-directed interviews, a methodology was developed to qualitatively evaluate groundwater contamination risk by land uses. The method combines land planning data and hydrogeological data through the MACBETH multicriteria analysis method, to obtain maps of groundwater contamination risk. The method was developed through group and individual meetings with numerous hydrogeology, land planning, water's economics and drinking water specialists. The resulting maps allow planners to understand the dynamics of groundwater within their territory, identify problem areas where groundwater is threatened and analyse the potential impact of planning scenarios on the risk of groundwater contamination.

  20. Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

    2012-03-01

    Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology.

  1. Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

    2008-11-15

    In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculations were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm.

  2. Integrating risk assessment and life cycle assessment: a case study of insulation.

    PubMed

    Nishioka, Yurika; Levy, Jonathan I; Norris, Gregory A; Wilson, Andrew; Hofstetter, Patrick; Spengler, John D

    2002-10-01

    Increasing residential insulation can decrease energy consumption and provide public health benefits, given changes in emissions from fuel combustion, but also has cost implications and ancillary risks and benefits. Risk assessment or life cycle assessment can be used to calculate the net impacts and determine whether more stringent energy codes or other conservation policies would be warranted, but few analyses have combined the critical elements of both methodologies In this article, we present the first portion of a combined analysis, with the goal of estimating the net public health impacts of increasing residential insulation for new housing from current practice to the latest International Energy Conservation Code (IECC 2000). We model state-by-state residential energy savings and evaluate particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in diameter (PM2.5), NOx, and SO2 emission reductions. We use past dispersion modeling results to estimate reductions in exposure, and we apply concentration-response functions for premature mortality and selected morbidity outcomes using current epidemiological knowledge of effects of PM2.5 (primary and secondary). We find that an insulation policy shift would save 3 x 10(14) British thermal units or BTU (3 x 10(17) J) over a 10-year period, resulting in reduced emissions of 1,000 tons of PM2.5, 30,000 tons of NOx, and 40,000 tons of SO2. These emission reductions yield an estimated 60 fewer fatalities during this period, with the geographic distribution of health benefits differing from the distribution of energy savings because of differences in energy sources, population patterns, and meteorology. We discuss the methodology to be used to integrate life cycle calculations, which can ultimately yield estimates that can be compared with costs to determine the influence of external costs on benefit-cost calculations.

  3. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  4. The application of integrated knowledge-based systems for the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, Karin C.; Ly, Bebe; Webster, Laurie; Verlander, James; Taylor, Gerald R.; Riley, Gary; Culbert, Chris

    1992-01-01

    One of NASA's goals for long duration space flight is to maintain acceptable levels of crew health, safety, and performance. One way of meeting this goal is through BRAIN, an integrated network of both human and computer elements. BRAIN will function as an advisor to mission managers by assessing the risk of inflight biomedical problems and recommending appropriate countermeasures. Described here is a joint effort among various NASA elements to develop BRAIN and the Infectious Disease Risk Assessment (IDRA) prototype. The implementation of this effort addresses the technological aspects of knowledge acquisition, integration of IDRA components, the use of expert systems to automate the biomedical prediction process, development of a user friendly interface, and integration of IDRA and ExerCISys systems. Because C language, CLIPS and the X-Window System are portable and easily integrated, they were chosen ss the tools for the initial IDRA prototype.

  5. INTEGRATION OF HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT - CASE STUDY DEMONSTRATIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION NEEDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS), together with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, has developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks. Four case stu...

  6. An Integrated Web-Based Assessment Tool for Assessing Pesticide Exposure and Risks

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background/Question/Methods We have created an integrated web-based tool designed to estimate exposure doses and ecological risks under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Species Act. This involved combining a number of disparat...

  7. Rare disasters and risk attitudes: international differences and implications for integrated assessment modeling.

    PubMed

    Ding, P; Gerst, M D; Bernstein, A; Howarth, R B; Borsuk, M E

    2012-11-01

    Evaluation of public policies with uncertain economic outcomes should consider society's preferences regarding risk. However, the preference models used in most integrated assessment models, including those commonly used to inform climate policy, do not adequately characterize the risk attitudes revealed by typical investment decisions. Here, we adopt an empirical approach to risk preference description using international historical data on investment returns and the occurrence of rare economic disasters. We improve on earlier analyses by employing a hierarchical Bayesian inference procedure that allows for nation-specific estimates of both disaster probabilities and preference parameters. This provides a stronger test of the underlying investment model than provided by previous calibrations and generates some compelling hypotheses for further study. Specifically, results suggest that society is substantially more averse to risk than typically assumed in integrated assessment models. In addition, there appear to be systematic differences in risk preferences among nations. These results are likely to have important implications for policy recommendations: higher aversion to risk increases the precautionary value of taking action to avoid low-probability, high-impact outcomes. However, geographically variable attitudes toward risk indicate that this precautionary value could vary widely across nations, thereby potentially complicating the negotiation of transboundary agreements focused on risk reduction.

  8. An integrated methodology for assessment and selection of the project risk response actions.

    PubMed

    Seyedhoseini, Seyed Mohammad; Noori, Siamak; Hatefi, Mohammad Ali

    2009-05-01

    In a systematic process of project risk management, after risk assessment is implemented, the risk analysts encounter the phase of assessment and selection of the project risk response actions (RA). As indicated by many researchers, there are less systematic and well-developed solutions in the area of risk response assessment and selection. The present article introduces a methodology including a modeling approach with the objective of selecting a set of RA that minimizes the undesirable deviation from achieving the project scope. The developed objective function comprises the three key success criteria of a project, namely, time, quality, and cost. Our model integrates overall project management into the project risk response planning (P2RP). Furthermore, the proposed model stresses on an equivalent importance for both "risk" and "response." We believe that applying the proposed model helps the project risk analyst in most effective and efficient manner dealing with his or her complicated RA selection problems. The application of the proposed model was implemented in projects in the construction industry in which it showed tremendous time, cost, and quality improvements.

  9. An integrated model-based approach to the risk assessment of pesticide drift from vineyards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pivato, Alberto; Barausse, Alberto; Zecchinato, Francesco; Palmeri, Luca; Raga, Roberto; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina; Cossu, Raffaello

    2015-06-01

    The inhalation of pesticide in air is of particular concern for people living in close contact with intensive agricultural activities. This study aims to develop an integrated modelling methodology to assess whether pesticides pose a risk to the health of people living near vineyards, and apply this methodology in the world-renowned Prosecco DOCG (Italian label for protection of origin and geographical indication of wines) region. A sample field in Bigolino di Valdobbiadene (North-Eastern Italy) was selected to perform the pesticide fate modellization and the consequent inhalation risk assessment for people living in the area. The modellization accounts for the direct pesticide loss during the treatment of vineyards and for the volatilization from soil after the end of the treatment. A fugacity model was used to assess the volatilization flux from soil. The Gaussian puff air dispersion model CALPUFF was employed to assess the airborne concentration of the emitted pesticide over the simulation domain. The subsequent risk assessment integrates the HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk (HAIR) and US-EPA guidelines. In this case study the modelled situation turned to be safe from the point of view of human health in the case of non-carcinogenic compounds, and additional improvements were suggested to further mitigate the effect of the most critical compound.

  10. Integrated assessment framework for quantifying multi-hazard risk in large cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ming, Xiaodong; Liang, Qiuhua; Yamazaki, Hiro; Dawson, Richard

    2016-04-01

    To better understand the integrated disaster risk in the region exposed to multiple natural hazards, there is a need for quantitative assessments that comprehensively consider all the regional major natural hazards and their interactions and correlations. This study developed an integrated assessment framework for quantifying water-related multi-hazard risk in costal cities, taking into account the possibility and outcome of the concurrence of river flood, heavy rain and storm surge. As the first part of this framework, copula theory is applied to measure the dependence between the three hazards and fit their joint probability distributions, which are used to simulate the concurrent events under different scenarios of probability. For each of the simulated events, a GPU-accelerated hydraulic model based on 2D Shallow Water Equation is operated to calculate the the flooding area and water depth. Vulnerability curves that illustrate the possible loss of different exposures as a function of hazard (flooding area and water depth) are generated and then applied to calculate the probability of loss at various level. London, which is a typical area threatened by pluvial, fluvial and costal floods, is selected as the study case in this framework. Compared with single-hazard risk, the integrated and quantitative assessment of disaster risk due to the three water-related hazard can provide more scientific reference for regional land-use planning, disaster prevention and emergency management.

  11. Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J.; Eckelman, Matthew; Isaacs, Jacqueline A.; Pourzahedi, Leila

    2015-08-01

    The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative's Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010-2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI's focus was primarily on the "responsible development of nanotechnology" we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation.

  13. An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination.

    PubMed

    Li, Jianbing; Huang, Gordon H; Zeng, Guangming; Maqsood, Imran; Huang, Yuefei

    2007-01-01

    An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also

  14. An object-oriented framework for dynamic ecosystem modeling: application for integrated risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sydelko, P J; Hlohowskyj, I; Majerus, K; Christiansen, J; Dolph, J

    2001-07-02

    Ecological risk assessment requires the integration of a wide range of data on anthropogenic processes, ecological processes and on processes related to environmental fate and transport. It is a major challenge to assemble a simulation system that can successfully capture the dynamics of complex ecological systems and an even more serious challenge to be able to adapt such a simulation to shifting and expanding analytical requirements and contexts. The dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex simulations. DIAS supports simulations in which the real-world entities that make up ecological systems are represented as software 'entity objects'. The object-oriented integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (OO-IDLAMS) provides a good example of how DIAS has been used to build a suite of models for the purpose of assessing the ecological impacts of military land use and land management practices. OO-IDLAMS is a prototype conservation modeling suite that provides military environmental managers and decision-makers with a strategic, integrated and adaptive approach to natural resources planning and ecosystem management. The OO-IDLAMS prototype used Fort Riley, Kansas as a case study to demonstrate DIAS' capabilities to offer flexibility, interprocess dynamics and cost-effective reuse of code for ecosystem modeling and simulation. DIAS can also readily lend itself to other applications in ecological risk assessment. It has great potential for the integration of ecological models (associated with biological uptake and effects) with environmental fate and transport models. A DIAS ecological risk assessment application could be used to predict the magnitude and extent of ecological risks and evaluate remedy effectiveness in a timely and cost-effective manner.

  15. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  16. Bottom-up and top-down integration of human and ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Suter, Glenn W

    The World Health Organization has published a framework for integrating human health and ecological risk assessments, and many others have argued for greater integration of health and environmental concerns in assessments. However, those who argue for integration do not agree on the expected benefits. This article provides a conceptual organization of the rationale for integration. The bottom-up line of argument begins with the premise that the mechanisms of transport, fate, exposure, and effects of chemicals on humans and nonhuman organisms are largely common. Therefore, integrated assessment should be more efficient and should employ the highest quality of science. The top-down line of argument begins with the premise that humans are organisms that reside in ecosystems. Therefore, changes in the environment imply changes in human health and welfare. These include changes in the many services of nature that contribute to human health, such as air and water purification, sentinel functions, and provision of recreation and food supplies. They also include the direct health benefits that have been associated with exposure of humans to plants, animals, and natural ecosystems. Integration should proceed from both the top and bottom.

  17. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  18. An integrative approach to assess ecological risks of surface water contamination for fish populations.

    PubMed

    Santos, Raphael; Joyeux, Aude; Besnard, Aurélien; Blanchard, Christophe; Halkett, Cédric; Bony, Sylvie; Sanchez, Wilfried; Devaux, Alain

    2017-01-01

    Contamination of aquatic ecosystems is considered as one of the main threats to global freshwater biodiversity. Within the European Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) a particular attention is dedicated to assess ecological risks of surface water contamination and mitigation of chemical pressures on aquatic ecosystems. In this work, we evaluated ecological risks of surface water contamination for fish populations in four EU-WFD rivers through an integrative approach investigating three Lines of Evidence (chemical contamination, biomarker responses as early warning signals of contamination impacting individuals and ecological analyses as an indicator of fish community disturbances). This work illustrates through 4 case studies the complementary role of biomarkers, chemical and ecological analyses which, used in combination, provide fundamental information to understand impacts of chemical pressures that can affect fish population dynamics. We discuss the limitations of this approach and future improvements needed within the EU-WFD to assess ecological risk of river contamination for fish populations.

  19. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

    2015-11-15

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products.

  20. An integrated tool to support engineers for WMSDs risk assessment during the assembly line balancing.

    PubMed

    Di Benedetto, Raffaele; Fanti, Michele

    2012-01-01

    This paper wants to present an integrated approach to Line Balancing and Risk Assessment and a Software Tool named ErgoAnalysis that makes it easy to control the whole production process and produces a Risk Index for the actual work tasks in an Assembly Line. Assembly Line Balancing, or simply Line Balancing, is the problem of assigning operations to workstations along an assembly line, in such a way that the assignment be optimal in some sense. Assembly lines are characterized by production constraints and restrictions due to several aspects such as the nature of the product and the flow of orders. To be able to respond effectively to the needs of production, companies need to frequently change the workload and production models. Each manufacturing process might be quite different from another. To optimize very specific operations, assembly line balancing might utilize a number of methods and the Engineer must consider ergonomic constraints, in order to reduce the risk of WMDSs. Risk Assessment may result very expensive because the Engineer must evaluate it at every change. ErgoAnalysis can reduce cost and improve effectiveness in Risk Assessment during the Line Balancing.

  1. A framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment of systemic risks

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, David J

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods of risk assessment have provided good service in support of policy, mainly in relation to standard setting and regulation of hazardous chemicals or practices. In recent years, however, it has become apparent that many of the risks facing society are systemic in nature – complex risks, set within wider social, economic and environmental contexts. Reflecting this, policy-making too has become more wide-ranging in scope, more collaborative and more precautionary in approach. In order to inform such policies, more integrated methods of assessment are needed. Based on work undertaken in two large EU-funded projects (INTARESE and HEIMTSA), this paper reviews the range of approaches to assessment now in used, proposes a framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment (both as a basis for bringing together and choosing between different methods of assessment, and extending these to more complex problems), and discusses some of the challenges involved in conducting integrated assessments to support policy. Integrated environmental health impact assessment is defined as a means of assessing health-related problems deriving from the environment, and health-related impacts of policies and other interventions that affect the environment, in ways that take account of the complexities, interdependencies and uncertainties of the real world. As such, it depends heavily on how issues are selected and framed, and implies the involvement of stakeholders both in issue-framing and design of the assessment, and to help interpret and evaluate the results. It is also a comparative process, which involves evaluating and comparing different scenarios. It consequently requires the ability to model the way in which the influences of exogenous factors, such as policies or other interventions, feed through the environment to affect health. Major challenges thus arise. Chief amongst these are the difficulties in ensuring effective stakeholder participation

  2. Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

    PubMed

    Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

    2013-11-01

    The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

  3. An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

    PubMed

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Gupta, Sugandh

    2013-01-01

    Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.

  4. On-line Meteorology-Chemistry/Aerosols Modelling and Integration for Risk Assessment: Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bostanbekov, Kairat; Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Nurseitov, Daniyar; Zakarin, Edige; Baklanov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    On regional level, and especially in areas with potential diverse sources of industrial pollutants, the risk assessment of impact on environment and population is critically important. During normal operations, the risk is minimal. However, during accidental situations, the risk is increased due to releases of harmful pollutants into different environments such as water, soil, and atmosphere where it is following processes of continuous transformation and transport. In this study, the Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment High Resolution Limited Area Model) was adapted and employed for assessment of scenarios with accidental and continuous emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) for selected case studies during January of 2010. The following scenarios were considered: (i) control reference run; (ii) accidental release (due to short-term 1 day fire at oil storage facility) occurred at city of Atyrau (Kazakhstan) near the northern part of the Caspian Sea; and (iii) doubling of original continuous emissions from three locations of metallurgical enterprises on the Kola Peninsula (Russia). The implemented aerosol microphysics module M7 uses 5 types - sulphates, sea salt, dust, black and organic carbon; as well as distributed in 7 size modes. Removal processes of aerosols include gravitational settling and wet deposition. As the Enviro-HIRLAM model is the on-line integrated model, both meteorological and chemical processes are simultaneously modelled at each time step. The modelled spatio-temporal variations for meteorological and chemical patterns are analyzed for both European and Kazakhstan regions domains. The results of evaluation of sulphur dioxide concentration and deposition on main populated cities, selected regions, countries are presented employing GIS tools. As outcome, the results of Enviro-HIRLAM modelling for accidental release near the Caspian Sea are integrated into the RANDOM (Risk Assessment of Nature Detriment due to Oil spill Migration) system.

  5. Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

    2013-04-01

    Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is

  6. Integrated assessment of risk and sustainability in the context of regulatory decision making.

    PubMed

    Sexton, Ken; Linder, Stephen H

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment is a decision-making tool used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and other governmental organizations to organize and analyze scientific information so as to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify threats to human health and/or ecologic resources. Sustainability evaluation is a process for organizing and analyzing scientific and technical information about nature-society interactions in order to help decision-makers determine whether taking or avoiding certain actions will make society more sustainable. Although development and application of these two methodologies have progressed along distinct and unconnected pathways, the National Research Council recently recommended that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency adopt the concept of "sustainability" as both a process and a goal, and that risk assessment be incorporated, when appropriate, as a key input into decision-making about sustainability. The following discussion briefly reviews these two analytic approaches and examines conceptual frameworks for integrating assessments of risk and sustainability as a component of regulatory decision-making.

  7. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-07-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  8. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

  9. Integrated Water and Sanitation Risk Assessment and Modeling in the Upper Sonora River basin (Northwest, Mexico)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, A. S.; Robles-Morua, A.; Halvorsen, K. E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Auer, M. T.

    2011-12-01

    Studies that integrate human dimensions and the biophysical characteristics of watersheds are necessary to meet the challenge of sustainable water resources development. In this project, we integrated perspectives from sociology, hydrology, and environmental engineering to examine and suggest solutions for managing waterborne disease risks associated with wastewater contamination in the Sonora River basin (SRB), a semiarid rural basin in northwest Mexico. This research consisted of four sub-projects. First, we assessed the perceptions of risks associated with wastewater contamination of water resources in rural communities in the SRB through a series of semi-structured interviews Results from this study indicate that there are major differences in risk perceptions among health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Government officials and lay citizens tend to underestimate the severity of the problems related to water related risks. Second, a fully distributed hydrologic model was used to make streamflow predictions in the un-gauged SRB. Synthetic flows generated from the hydrologic model were used to evaluate pollutant transport processes associated with wastewater loadings to the Sonora River. The hydrologic model revealed that the high degree of spatio-temporal variability of runoff in the SRB is associated with links between runoff generation mechanisms and land-atmosphere interactions. Third, a surface water quality model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges and develop pathogen contamination indicators in two sites along the Sonora River. To parameterize the water quality model, pathogenic indicator loadings and removal rates were estimated, along with their uncertainty. Results from the water quality modeling show regions in the watershed that may be exceeding pathogenic standards, but also that uncertainty in model parameters requires a probabilistic approach for estimating risks. Finally, a workshop was conducted to

  10. Ecological status classification of the Taizi River Basin, China: a comparison of integrated risk assessment approaches.

    PubMed

    Fan, Juntao; Semenzin, Elena; Meng, Wei; Giubilato, Elisa; Zhang, Yuan; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Zhou, Yun; Ding, Sen; Wan, Jun; He, Mengchang; Lin, Chunye

    2015-10-01

    Integrated risk assessment approaches allow to achieve a sound evaluation of ecological status of river basins and to gain knowledge about the likely causes of impairment, useful for informing and supporting the decision-making process. In this paper, the integrated risk assessment (IRA) methodology developed in the EU MODELKEY project (and implemented in the MODELKEY Decision Support System) is applied to the Taizi River (China), in order to assess its Ecological and Chemical Status according to EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requirements. The available dataset is derived by an extensive survey carried out in 2009 and 2010 across the Taizi River catchment, including the monitoring of physico-chemical (i.e. DO, EC, NH3-_N, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand in 5 days (BOD5) and TP), chemical (i.e. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metals), biological (i.e. macroinvertebrates, fish, and algae), and hydromorphological parameters (i.e. water quantity, channel change and morphology diversity). The results show a negative trend in the ecological status from the highland to the lowland of the Taizi River Basin. Organic pollution from agriculture and domestic sources (i.e. COD and BOD5), unstable hydrological regime (i.e. water quantity shortage) and chemical pollutants from industry (i.e. PAHs and metals) are found to be the main stressors impacting the ecological status of the Taizi River Basin. The comparison between the results of the IRA methodology and those of a previous study (Leigh et al. 2012) indicates that the selection of indicators and integrating methodologies can have a relevant impact on the classification of the ecological status. The IRA methodology, which integrates information from five lines of evidence (i.e., biology, physico-chemistry, chemistry, ecotoxicology and hydromorphology) required by WFD, allows to better identify the biological communities that are potentially at risk and the stressors that are most

  11. Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

    PubMed

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-04-19

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

  12. Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-01-01

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

  13. Assessment of Seismic Risk in Istanbul Based on the Integration of Historical Seismology and Structural Engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koketsu, K.; Ilki, A.; Kusunoki, K.; Kabeyasawa, T.; Yazgan, U.; Suzuki, T.; Takano, K.

    2015-12-01

    Most seismic disasters in northern Turkey have been caused by large earthquakes generated along the huge active fault called the North Anatolian Fault. We can also see that these large earthquakes occurred sequentially from east to west. Since the latest large earthquake, 1999 Kocaeli earthquake occurred close to Izumit, which is neighboring Istanbul, a next large earthquake can occur in the westernmost segment only several tens km away from Istanbul. Therefore, the seismic risk assessment of Istanbul must be an urgent issue and this study has been carried out for the purpose of an accurate assessment.To increase the accuracy of seismic risk assessment, we introduced two approaches into this study. The first approach is based on historical seismology. We compiled data of actual seismic damage by investigating past seismic disasters in Istanbul. The experts in Turkish history and seismology examined historical documents and collecting data of actual seismic damage written in them. In particular, there exist photos of seismic damage in the 19th century and later. For example, the figure shows the damage of buildings caused by the 1894 earthquake. We performed a preliminary analysis on these data. The second approach is based on structural engineering. For useful risk assessments for the people and society of Istanbul, not only the past damage data but also data on currently existing buildings are necessary. For this purpose, we performed cyclic lateral-loading tests on a RC building in the redevelopment area. The experts on structural engineering and earthquake engineering analyzed the data obtained from this full-scale experiment. Finally, we concluded this study by integrating the results of the two approaches.

  14. Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

    EPA Science Inventory

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific metho...

  15. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR 1,3 BUTADIENE: DATA INTEGRATION OPPORTUNITIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently released its new Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment together with Supplemental Guidance for Assessing Susceptibility from Early-Life Exposure to Carcinogens. These new cancer guidelines benefit from the significant strides ...

  16. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR 1,3-BUTADIENE: DATA INTEGRATION OPPORTUNITIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently released its new Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment together with Supplemental Guidance for Assessing Susceptibility from Early-Life Exposure to Carcinogens. In particular, these guidelines encourage the use of mechanistic ...

  17. Benefits and risks of emerging technologies: integrating life cycle assessment and decision analysis to assess lumber treatment alternatives.

    PubMed

    Tsang, Michael P; Bates, Matthew E; Madison, Marcus; Linkov, Igor

    2014-10-07

    Assessing the best options among emerging technologies (e.g., new chemicals, nanotechnologies) is complicated because of trade-offs across benefits and risks that are difficult to quantify given limited and fragmented availability of information. This study demonstrates the integration of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to address technology alternative selection decisions. As a case study, prioritization of six lumber treatment alternatives [micronized copper quaternary (MCQ); alkaline copper quaternary (ACQ); water-borne copper naphthenate (CN); oil-borne copper naphthenate (CNo); water-borne copper quinolate (CQ); and water-borne zinc naphthenate (ZN)] for military use are considered. Multiattribute value theory (MAVT) is used to derive risk and benefit scores. Risk scores are calculated using a cradle-to-gate LCA. Benefit scores are calculated by scoring of cost, durability, and corrosiveness criteria. Three weighting schemes are used, representing Environmental, Military and Balanced stakeholder perspectives. Aggregated scores from all three perspectives show CQ to be the least favorable alterative. MCQ is identified as the most favorable alternative from the Environmental stakeholder perspective. From the Military stakeholder perspective, ZN is determined to be the most favorable alternative, followed closely by MCQ. This type of scoring and ranking of multiple heterogeneous criteria in a systematic and transparent way facilitates better justification of technology selection and regulation.

  18. Integrated flood risk assessment for the Mekong Delta through the combined assessment of flood hazard change and social vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, Heiko; Garschagen, Matthias; Delgado, José Miguel; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Van Tuan, Vo; Thanh Binh, Nguyen; Birkmann, Joern; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Low lying estuaries as the Mekong Delta in Vietnam are among the most vulnerable areas with respect to climate change impacts. While regular floods are not a threat but an opportunity for livelihoods and income generation, extreme flood events can pose considerable risks to the people living in Deltas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme floods globally, which in combination with sea level rise and a likely intensification of cyclone activity creates increased and/or entirely new hazard exposure in the Deltas. Yet, in line with the risk literature and especially the recent IPCC SREX report, flooding risk needs to be understood as deriving from the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerabilities of exposed elements. Therefore, the paper aims for an integrated risk assessment through combining the most up to date estimates of flood hazard projections under climate change conditions in the Mekong Delta with the assessment of vulnerability patterns. Projections of flood hazard are estimated based the modulation of the flood frequency distribution by atmospheric circulation patterns. Future projections of these patterns are calculated from an ensemble of climate models. A quasi two-dimensional hydrodynamical model of the Delta is then applied to estimate water levels and flood extend. This model is fed with a set of hydrographs which are based on both the derived climate model uncertainty and the bivariate nature of floods in the Mekong Delta. Flood peak is coupled with flood volume in the probabilistic framework to derive synthetic extreme future floods with associated probabilities of occurrence. This flood hazard analysis is combined with static sea level rise scenarios, which alter the lower boundary of the hydrodynamic model and give estimates of the impact on sea level rise on inundation extend and depths. The vulnerability assessment is based on a three step approach. Firstly, vulnerability profiles are developed for different

  19. A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

    PubMed

    Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

    2017-01-25

    We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape.

  20. An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

  1. An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

  2. Identifying and assessing the risk of opioid abuse in patients with cancer: an integrative review

    PubMed Central

    Carmichael, Ashley-Nicole; Morgan, Laura; Del Fabbro, Egidio

    2016-01-01

    Background The misuse and abuse of opioid medications in many developed nations is a health crisis, leading to increased health-system utilization, emergency department visits, and overdose deaths. There are also increasing concerns about opioid abuse and diversion in patients with cancer, even at the end of life. Aims To evaluate the current literature on opioid misuse and abuse, and more specifically the identification and assessment of opioid-abuse risk in patients with cancer. Our secondary aim is to offer the most current evidence of best clinical practice and suggest future directions for research. Materials and methods Our integrative review included a literature search using the key terms “identification and assessment of opioid abuse in cancer”, “advanced cancer and opioid abuse”, “hospice and opioid abuse”, and “palliative care and opioid abuse”. PubMed, PsycInfo, and Embase were supplemented by a manual search. Results We found 691 articles and eliminated 657, because they were predominantly non cancer populations or specifically excluded cancer patients. A total of 34 articles met our criteria, including case studies, case series, retrospective observational studies, and narrative reviews. The studies were categorized into screening questionnaires for opioid abuse or alcohol, urine drug screens to identify opioid misuse or abuse, prescription drug-monitoring programs, and the use of universal precautions. Conclusion Screening questionnaires and urine drug screens indicated at least one in five patients with cancer may be at risk of opioid-use disorder. Several studies demonstrated associations between high-risk patients and clinical outcomes, such as aberrant behavior, prolonged opioid use, higher morphine-equivalent daily dose, greater health care utilization, and symptom burden. PMID:27330340

  3. Integrated risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunsucker, J. L.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try

  4. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials

    EPA Science Inventory

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology ...

  5. Integrative health risk assessment of air pollution in the northwest of Spain.

    PubMed

    García-Santiago, Xela; Gallego-Fernández, Nuria; Muniategui-Lorenzo, Soledad; Piñeiro-Iglesias, María; López-Mahía, Purificación; Franco-Uría, Amaya

    2016-11-19

    Levels, origins and potential risks due to different air pollutants (ozone, SO2 and particle-borne metals) in NW Spain were investigated in eight locations affected by different emission sources. All monitored locations suffered the influence of traffic and industrial emissions, being this influence more important in urban locations. Although average values of the estimated hazard index (HI) due to particle-borne metals showed values lower than one, maximum values of this parameter exceeded this safety limit in urban locations. In general, Ni and As were identified as those metals most contributing to the HI. Furthermore, the presence of industrial emission episodes produced a significant increase in the magnitude of the HI in two of the seven urban areas. Therefore, the frequency and intensity of these episodes should be further investigated. Finally, levels of airborne and particle-borne pollutants were integrated with the aim of providing a comprehensive assessment of health risk. According to an established indexing system, air quality can be classified from good to moderate, being the southern urban locations (the most densely populated and industrialised ones) presenting the worst values. However, either the high or the low influence of acute and chronic-effect pollutants on air quality depends on the location.

  6. Integration of concentration-response relations in risk assessment models to calculate hazardous concentrations for ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Traas, T.P.; Janse, J.H.; Brock, T.C.M.; Aldenberg, T.

    1994-12-31

    Ecotoxicological risk assessments usually focus on fate of chemicals or extrapolation of single-species bioassays. Several attempts have been made to integrate these two approaches, in order to predict ecosystem effects. Ecological effects of chemicals are notoriously difficult to predict. Extensive mesocosm experiments were available to study ecological effects of chlorpyrifos. The authors integrated fate and concentration-response curves of chlorpyrifos and cadmium in an ecotoxicological model. The model consists of compartments for water, sediment, and species lumped in functional groups. Cycling of organic matter is the backbone of the model, acting as carrier for the toxicant. Concentration-response curves of chlorpyrifos were determined on species present in the mesocosms. Transient effects of a single dose of chlorpyrifos on the mesocosms can be simulated with the model. Based on measured direct and indirect effects in the mesocosms, the authors propose a method to calculate the maximum allowable concentration for ecological damage. The authors call this the Hazardous Concentration for the Ecosystem (HCE). The HCE is reached if biomass anywhere in the food web falls outside the normal biomass bandwidth.

  7. Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

    2013-04-01

    Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

  8. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A J; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; van de Meent, Dik; van der Voet, Hilko

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In the present study, the authors developed a method to model both the variability and the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment of ENPs. This method is based on the concentration ratio and the ratio of the exposure concentration to the critical effect concentration, both considered to be random. In this method, variability and uncertainty are modeled separately so as to allow the user to see which part of the total variation in the concentration ratio is attributable to uncertainty and which part is attributable to variability. The authors illustrate the use of the method with a simplified aquatic risk assessment of nano-titanium dioxide. The authors' method allows a more transparent risk assessment and can also direct further environmental and toxicological research to the areas in which it is most needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2958-2967. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

  9. Towards an integrated environmental risk assessment of emissions from ships' propulsion systems.

    PubMed

    Blasco, Julián; Durán-Grados, Vanesa; Hampel, Miriam; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Juan

    2014-05-01

    Large ships, particularly container ships, tankers, bulk carriers and cruise ships are significant individual contributors to air pollution. The European Environment Agency recognizes that air pollution in Europe is a local, regional and transborder problem caused by the emission of specific pollutants, which either directly or through chemical reactions lead to negative impacts, such as damage to human health and ecosystems. In the Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament emissions from ships are mentioned explicitly in the list of pressures and impacts that should be reduced or minimized to maintain or obtain a good ecological status. While SOx and NOx contribute mainly to ocean and soil acidification and climate change, PM (particularly ultrafine particles in the range of nanoparticles) has the potential to act more directly on human and ecosystem health. Thus, in terms of risk assessment, one of the most dangerous atmospheric aerosols for environmental and human health is in the size range of nanoparticles. To our knowledge, no study has been carried out on the effects of the fraction that ends up in the water column and to which aquatic and sediment-dwelling organisms are exposed. Therefore, an integrated environmental risk assessment of the effects of emissions from oceangoing ships including the aquatic compartment is necessary. Research should focus on the quantitative and qualitative determination of pollutant emissions from ships and their distribution and fate. This will include the in situ measurement of emissions in ships in order to derive realistic emission factors, and the application of atmospheric and oceanographic transportation and chemistry models.

  10. Integration of Different Risk Assessment Tools to Improve Stratification of Patients with Coronary Artery Disease.

    PubMed

    Paredes, S; Rocha, T; de Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Morais, J; Ferreira, J

    2015-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes unaffordable social and health costs that tend to increase as the European population ages. In this context, clinical guidelines recommend the use of risk scores to predict the risk of a cardiovascular disease event. Some useful tools have been developed to predict the risk of occurrence of a cardiovascular disease event (e.g. hospitalization or death). However, these tools present some drawbacks. These problems are addressed through two methodologies: (i) combination of risk assessment tools: fusion of naïve Bayes classifiers complemented with a genetic optimization algorithm and (ii) personalization of risk assessment: subtractive clustering applied to a reduced-dimensional space to create groups of patients. Validation was performed based on two ACS-NSTEMI patient data sets. This work improved the performance in relation to current risk assessment tools, achieving maximum values of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean of, respectively, 79.8, 83.8, and 80.9 %. Additionally, it assured clinical interpretability, ability to incorporate of new risk factors, higher capability to deal with missing risk factors and avoiding the selection of a standard CVD risk assessment tool to be applied in the clinical practice.

  11. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Webster, Mort D.

    2015-11-30

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

  12. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Webster, Mort David

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  13. Integrating Omic Technologies into Aquatic Ecological Risk Assessment and Environmental Monitoring: Hurdles, Achievements and Future Outlook

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: In this commentary we present the findings from an international consortium on fish toxicogenomics sponsored by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) with a remit of moving omic technologies into chemical risk assessment and environmental monitoring. Obj...

  14. Integrating Omic Technologies into Aquatic Ecological Risk Assessment and Environmental Monitoring: Hurdles, Achievements and Future Outlook

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this commentary we present the findings from an international consortium on fish toxicogenomics sponsored by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) with an objective of moving omic technologies into chemical risk assessment and environmental monitoring. Objectiv...

  15. SIMULATING INTEGRATED MULTIMEDIA CHEMICAL FATE AND TRANSPORT FOR NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The site-based multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) approach is comprised of source, fate and transport, exposure and risk modules. The main interconnected multimedia fate and transport modules are: watershed, air, surface water, vadose zone and sat...

  16. Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

    PubMed

    Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

    2016-01-01

    Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation.

  17. Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy integration in Zambia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilli-Sihvola, K.; Väätäinen-Chimpuku, S.

    2015-12-01

    Integration of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) policies, their implementation measures and the contribution of these to development has been gaining attention recently. Due to the shared objectives of CCA and particularly Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a component of DRM, their integration provides many benefits. At the implementation level, DRR and CCA are usually integrated. Policy integration, however, is often lacking. This study presents a novel analysis of the policy integration of DRR and CCA by 1) suggesting a definition for their integration at a general and further at horizontal and vertical levels, 2) using an analysis framework for policy integration cycle, which separates the policy formulation and implementation processes, and 3) applying these to a case study in Zambia. Moreover, the study identifies the key gaps in the integration process, obtains an understanding of identified key factors for creating an enabling environment for the integration, and provides recommendations for further progress. The study is based on a document analysis of the relevant DRM, climate change (CC), agriculture, forestry, water management and meteorology policy documents and Acts, and 21 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Horizontal integration has occurred both ways, as the revised DRM policy draft has incorporated CCA, and the new CC policy draft has incorporated DRR. This is not necessarily an optimal strategy and unless carefully implemented, it may create pressure on institutional structures and duplication of efforts in the implementation. Much less vertical integration takes place, and where it does, no guidance on how potential goal conflicts with sectorial and development objectives ought to be handled. The objectives of the instruments show convergence. At the programme stage, the measures are fully integrated as they can be classified as robust CCA measures, providing benefits in the current and future

  18. 76 FR 23755 - Release of Draft Risk and Exposure Assessments and Final Integrated Review Plan for the National...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-28

    ... AGENCY 40 CFR Parts 50 and 58 RIN 2060-AP38 Release of Draft Risk and Exposure Assessments and Final Integrated Review Plan for the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone AGENCY: Environmental... making available for public review the documents titled, ``Ozone National Ambient Air Quality...

  19. White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

    PubMed

    Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

    2015-07-15

    The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more

  20. Drug interactions evaluation: An integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S.; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

    2010-03-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance ( (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf)) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a 'Drug Development and Drug Interactions' website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions ( (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm)). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

  1. Integrated ecological risk assessment of pesticides in tropical ecosystems: a case study with carbofuran in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Chelinho, Sónia; Lopes, Isabel; Natal-da-Luz, Tiago; Domene, Xaxier; Nunes, Maria Edna Tenorio; Espíndola, Evaldo L G; Ribeiro, Rui; Sousa, Jose P

    2012-02-01

    The aim of the present study is to contribute an ecologically relevant assessment of the ecotoxicological effects of pesticide applications in agricultural areas in the tropics, using an integrated approach with information gathered from soil and aquatic compartments. Carbofuran, an insecticide/nematicide used widely on sugarcane crops, was selected as a model substance. To evaluate the toxic effects of pesticide spraying for soil biota, as well as the potential indirect effects on aquatic biota resulting from surface runoff and/or leaching, field and laboratory (using a cost-effective simulator of pesticide applications) trials were performed. Standard ecotoxicological tests were performed with soil (Eisenia andrei, Folsomia candida, and Enchytraeus crypticus) and aquatic (Ceriodaphnia silvestrii) organisms, using serial dilutions of soil, eluate, leachate, and runoff samples. Among soil organisms, sensitivity was found to be E. crypticus < E. andrei < F. candida. Among the aqueous extracts, mortality of C. silvestrii was extreme in runoff samples, whereas eluates were by far the least toxic samples. A generally higher toxicity was found in the bioassays performed with samples from the field trial, indicating the need for improvements in the laboratory simulator. However, the tool developed proved to be valuable in evaluating the toxic effects of pesticide spraying in soils and the potential risks for aquatic compartments.

  2. Drug interactions evaluation: an integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

    2010-03-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a "Drug Development and Drug Interactions" website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

  3. CHARACTERIZATION OF DATA VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY: HEALTH EFFECTS ASSESSMENTS IN THE INTEGRATED RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM (IRIS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In response to a Congressional directive contained in HR 106-379 regarding EPA's appropriations for FY2000, EPA has undertaken an evaluation of the characterization of data variability and uncertainty in its Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health effects information dat...

  4. Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

    2013-04-01

    The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning.

  5. Risk assessment of Giardia from a full scale MBR sewage treatment plant caused by membrane integrity failure.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yu; Chen, Zhimin; An, Wei; Xiao, Shumin; Yuan, Hongying; Zhang, Dongqing; Yang, Min

    2015-04-01

    Membrane bioreactors (MBR) are highly efficient at intercepting particles and microbes and have become an important technology for wastewater reclamation. However, many pathogens can accumulate in activated sludge due to the long residence time usually adopted in MBR, and thus may pose health risks when membrane integrity problems occur. This study presents data from a survey on the occurrence of water-borne Giardia pathogens in reclaimed water from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant with MBR experiencing membrane integrity failure, and assessed the associated risk for green space irrigation. Due to membrane integrity failure, the MBR effluent turbidity varied between 0.23 and 1.90 NTU over a period of eight months. Though this turbidity level still met reclaimed water quality standards (≤5 NTU), Giardia were detected at concentrations of 0.3 to 95 cysts/10 L, with a close correlation between effluent turbidity and Giardia concentration. All β-giardin gene sequences of Giardia in the WWTP influents were genotyped as Assemblages A and B, both of which are known to infect humans. An exponential dose-response model was applied to assess the risk of infection by Giardia. The risk in the MBR effluent with chlorination was 9.83×10(-3), higher than the acceptable annual risk of 1.0×10(-4). This study suggested that membrane integrity is very important for keeping a low pathogen level, and multiple barriers are needed to ensure the biological safety of MBR effluent.

  6. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Coles, Garill A.; Bonebrake, Christopher A.; Ivans, William J.; Wootan, David W.; Mitchell, Mark R.

    2014-07-18

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

  7. Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polo, M. J.; Aguilar, C.; Millares, A.; Herrero, J.; Gómez-Beas, R.; Contreras, E.; Losada, M. A.

    2014-09-01

    Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.

  8. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  9. An Integrated Risk Approach for Assessing the Use of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in Hydroelectric Reservoir Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; Wigmosta, M.; Barco, J.; Voisin, N.; Bier, A.; Coleman, A.; Skaggs, R.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents an integrated risk approach using ensemble streamflow forecasts for optimizing hydro-electric power generation. Uncertainty in the streamflow forecasts are translated into integrated risk by calculating the deviation of an optimized release schedule that simultaneously maximizes power generation and environmental performance from release schedules that maximize the two objectives individually. The deviations from each target are multiplied by the probability of occurrence and then summed across all probabilities to get the integrated risk. The integrated risk is used to determine which operational scheme exposes the operator to the least amount of risk or conversely, what are the consequences of basing future operations on a particular prediction. Decisions can be made with regards to the tradeoff between power generation, environmental performance, and exposure to risk. The Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization for Power and Environment (HydroSCOPE) model developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is used to model the flow, temperature, and power generation and is coupled with the DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) optimization package to identify the maximum potential power generation, the maximum environmental performance, and the optimal operational scheme that maximizes both for each instance of the ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were developed in a collaborative effort between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington to develop an Enhanced Hydrologic Forecasting System (EHFS) that incorporates advanced ensemble forecasting approaches and algorithms, spatiotemporal datasets, and automated data acquisition and processing. Both the HydroSCOPE model and the EHFS forecast tool are being developed as part of a larger, multi-laboratory water-use optimization project funded through the US Department of Energy. The simulations were based on the

  10. Integrating bioassessment and ecological risk assessment: an approach to developing numerical water-quality criteria.

    PubMed

    King, Ryan S; Richardson, Curtis J

    2003-06-01

    Ioassessment is used worldwide to monitor aquatic health but is infrequently used with risk-assessment objectives, such as supporting the development of defensible, numerical water-quality criteria. To this end, we present a generalized approach for detecting potential ecological thresholds using assemblage-level attributes and a multimetric index (Index of Biological Integrity-IBI) as endpoints in response to numerical changes in water quality. To illustrate the approach, we used existing macroinvertebrate and surface-water total phosphorus (TP) datasets from an observed P gradient and a P-dosing experiment in wetlands of the south Florida coastal plain nutrient ecoregion. Ten assemblage attributes were identified as potential metrics using the observational data, and five were validated in the experiment. These five core metrics were subjected individually and as an aggregated Nutrient-IBI to nonparametric changepoint analysis (nCPA) to estimate cumulative probabilities of a threshold response to TP. Threshold responses were evident for all metrics and the IBI, and were repeatable through time. Results from the observed gradient indicated that a threshold was > or = 50% probable between 12.6 and 19.4 microg/L TP for individual metrics and 14.8 microg/L TP for the IBI. Results from the P-dosing experiment revealed > or = 50% probability of a response between 11.2 and 13.0 microg/L TP for the metrics and 12.3 microg/L TP for the IBI. Uncertainty analysis indicated a low (typically > or = 5%) probability that an IBI threshold occurred at < or = 10 microg/L TP, while there was > or = 95% certainty that the threshold was < or = 17 microg/L TP. The weight-of-evidence produced from these analyses implies that a TP concentration > 12-15 microg/L is likely to cause degradation of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure and function, a reflection of biological integrity, in the study area. This finding may assist in the development of a numerical water-quality criterion for

  11. II. Species sensitivity distributions based on biomarkers and whole organism responses for integrated impact and risk assessment criteria.

    PubMed

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M; Smit, Mathijs G D

    2016-12-26

    The aim of this paper is to bridge gaps between biomarker and whole organism responses related to oil based offshore discharges. These biomarker bridges will facilitate acceptance criteria for biomarker data linked to environmental risk assessment and translate biomarker results to higher order effects. Biomarker based species sensitivity distributions (SSDbiomarkers) have been constructed for relevant groups of biomarkers based on laboratory data from oil exposures. SSD curves express the fraction of species responding to different types of biomarkers. They have been connected to SSDs for whole organism responses (WORs) constructed in order to relate the SSDbiomarkers to animal fitness parameters that are commonly used in environmental risk assessment. The resulting SSD curves show that biomarkers and WORs can be linked through their potentially affected fraction of species (PAF) distributions, enhancing the capability to monitor field parameters with better correlation to impact and risk assessment criteria and providing improved chemical/biological integration.

  12. [Risk assessment and safety evaluation using system normative indexes integration method for non-point source pollution on watershed scale].

    PubMed

    Liu, Jian-Chang; Yan, Yan; Liu, Feng; Ding, Ding; Zhao, Ming

    2008-03-01

    Decision-makers take non-point source pollution under control as well as possible results from enough information of risk trend of nonpoint source pollution on watershed scale. System normative indexes integration evaluation method about system risk trend was developed when focusing on that the probability values of some elements attributing to some trend of the system were more than one, and that the system evaluation needed a formula from the system structure. On the basis of analysis on aspects and characteristics of the system risk normalization, a new valuation method, the relationship between the normalization values of the system and the factors was established. The Lugu Lake Watershed in Southwest China was selected as study area to assess the risk of non-point source loss to surface water using this method. The results indicate that 1) the wholly risk of non-point source loss to surface water in this watershed is in a high level; 2) the system indexes integration evaluation method is an universal method to evaluate a quality or a trend of any system and shows a great power in comparing several systems; 3) the method is helpful to attain an effective and integrated assessment on a system when it is combined with other methods.

  13. a Meteorological Risk Assessment Method for Power Lines Based on GIS and Multi-Sensor Integration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Zhiyong; Xu, Zhimin

    2016-06-01

    Power lines, exposed in the natural environment, are vulnerable to various kinds of meteorological factors. Traditional research mainly deals with the influence of a single meteorological condition on the power line, which lacks of comprehensive effects evaluation and analysis of the multiple meteorological factors. In this paper, we use multiple meteorological monitoring data obtained by multi-sensors to implement the meteorological risk assessment and early warning of power lines. Firstly, we generate meteorological raster map from discrete meteorological monitoring data using spatial interpolation. Secondly, the expert scoring based analytic hierarchy process is used to compute the power line risk index of all kinds of meteorological conditions and establish the mathematical model of meteorological risk. By adopting this model in raster calculator of ArcGIS, we will have a raster map showing overall meteorological risks for power line. Finally, by overlaying the power line buffer layer to that raster map, we will get to know the exact risk index around a certain part of power line, which will provide significant guidance for power line risk management. In the experiment, based on five kinds of observation data gathered from meteorological stations in Guizhou Province of China, including wind, lightning, rain, ice, temperature, we carry on the meteorological risk analysis for the real power lines, and experimental results have proved the feasibility and validity of our proposed method.

  14. Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

    PubMed Central

    Barzyk, Timothy M.; Wilson, Sacoby; Wilson, Anthony

    2015-01-01

    Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific methodology, including partnership formation and solution development as necessary practices. Community, state, and federal examples were described and then summarized based on their adherence to CRA principles of: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) risk analysis and ranking, and (3) risk characterization, interpretation, and management. While each application shared the common goal of protecting human health and the environment, they adopted different approaches to achieve this. For a specific project-level analysis of a particular place or instance, this may be acceptable, but to ensure long-term applicability and transferability to other projects, recommendations for developing a consistent approach to CRA are provided. This approach would draw from best practices, risk assessment and decision analysis sciences, and historical lessons learned to provide results in an understandable and accepted manner by all entities. This approach is intended to provide a common ground around which to develop CRA methods and approaches that can be followed at all levels. PMID:25918910

  15. Flood Risk Assessment as a Part of Integrated Flood and Drought Analysis. Case Study: Southern Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Suryadi, Fransiscus X.; de Fraiture, Charlotte

    2015-04-01

    Flood and drought are two main meteorological catastrophes that have created adverse consequences to more than 80% of total casualties universally, 50% by flood and 31% by drought. Those natural hazards have the tendency of increasing frequency and degree of severity and it is expected that climate change will exacerbate their occurrences and impacts. In addition, growing population and society interference are the other key factors that pressure on and exacerbate the adverse impacts. Consequently, nowadays, the loss from any disasters becomes less and less acceptable bringing about more people's consciousness on mitigation measures and management strategies and policies. In general, due to the difference in their inherent characteristics and time occurrences flood and drought mitigation and protection have been separately implemented, managed, and supervised by different group of authorities. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop an integrated mitigation measure or a management policy able to surmount both problems to acceptable levels and is conveniently monitored by the same group of civil servants which will be economical in both short- and long-term. As aforementioned of the distinction of fundamental peculiarities and occurrence, the assessment processes of floods and droughts are separately performed using their own specific techniques. In the first part of the research flood risk assessment is focused in order to delineate the flood prone area. The study area is a river plain in southern Thailand where flooding is influenced by monsoon and depression. The work is mainly concentrated on physically-based computational modeling and an assortment of tools was applied for: data completion, areal rainfall interpolation, statistical distribution, rainfall-runoff analysis and flow model simulation. The outcome from the simulation can be concluded that the flood prone areas susceptible to inundation are along the riparian areas, particularly at the

  16. Risk assessment for sustainable food security in China according to integrated food security--taking Dongting Lake area for example.

    PubMed

    Qi, Xiaoxing; Liu, Liming; Liu, Yabin; Yao, Lan

    2013-06-01

    Integrated food security covers three aspects: food quantity security, food quality security, and sustainable food security. Because sustainable food security requires that food security must be compatible with sustainable development, the risk assessment of sustainable food security is becoming one of the most important issues. This paper mainly focuses on the characteristics of sustainable food security problems in the major grain-producing areas in China. We establish an index system based on land resources and eco-environmental conditions and apply a dynamic assessment method based on status assessments and trend analysis models to overcome the shortcomings of the static evaluation method. Using fuzzy mathematics, the risks are categorized into four grades: negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk. A case study was conducted in one of China's major grain-producing areas: Dongting Lake area. The results predict that the status of the sustainable food security in the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The number of districts at the medium-risk range will increase from six to ten by 2015 due to increasing population pressure, a decrease in the cultivated area, and a decrease in the effective irrigation area. Therefore, appropriate policies and measures should be put forward to improve it. The results could also provide direct support for an early warning system-which could be used to monitor food security trends or nutritional status so to inform policy makers of impending food shortages-to prevent sustainable food security risk based on some classical systematic methods. This is the first research of sustainable food security in terms of risk assessment, from the perspective of resources and the environment, at the regional scale.

  17. Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

  18. Expert knowledge integration in the data mining process with application to cardiovascular risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Tavares, M; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Carvalho, P; Ramos, J; Mendes, D; Henriques, J; Morais, J

    2015-01-01

    The data mining process, when applied to clinical databases, suffers from critical data problems, from noisy acquisitions to missing or incomplete data points. Expert knowledge, in the form of practitioners' experience and clinical guidelines, is already used to manually correct some of these problems, while enhancing expert's confidence in such systems. In this work, we propose the Knowledge-Biased Tree (KB3), a knowledge biased decision tree inducer that is able to exploit IF THEN rules to guide the tree inducing process. The KB3 approach was tested against its unbiased counterpart, the C5.0 algorithm in the cardiovascular risk assessment task. Using a clinical dataset provided by the hospital of Sta Cruz (Lisbon, Portugal) the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared against the unbiased C5.0 and the state of the art risk score used in clinical practice (GRACE risk score).

  19. Integrated genomic and BMI analysis for type 2 diabetes risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Lebrón-Aldea, Dayanara; Dhurandhar, Emily J.; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Klimentidis, Yann C.; Tiwari, Hemant K.; Vazquez, Ana I.

    2015-01-01

    Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) is a chronic disease arising from the development of insulin absence or resistance within the body, and a complex interplay of environmental and genetic factors. The incidence of T2D has increased throughout the last few decades, together with the occurrence of the obesity epidemic. The consideration of variants identified by Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS) into risk assessment models for T2D could aid in the identification of at-risk patients who could benefit from preventive medicine. In this study, we build several risk assessment models, evaluated with two different classification approaches (Logistic Regression and Neural Networks), to measure the effect of including genetic information in the prediction of T2D. We used data from to the Original and the Offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study, which provides phenotypic and genetic information for 5245 subjects (4306 controls and 939 cases). Models were built by using several covariates: gender, exposure time, cohort, body mass index (BMI), and 65 SNPs associated to T2D. We fitted Logistic Regressions and Bayesian Regularized Neural Networks and then assessed their predictive ability by using a ten-fold cross validation. We found that the inclusion of genetic information into the risk assessment models increased the predictive ability by 2%, when compared to the baseline model. Furthermore, the models that included BMI at the onset of diabetes as a possible effector, gave an improvement of 6% in the area under the curve derived from the ROC analysis. The highest AUC achieved (0.75) belonged to the model that included BMI, and a genetic score based on the 65 established T2D-associated SNPs. Finally, the inclusion of SNPs and BMI raised predictive ability in all models as expected; however, results from the AUC in Neural Networks and Logistic Regression did not differ significantly in their prediction accuracy. PMID:25852736

  20. Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klima, K.

    2013-12-01

    Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

  1. Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

    SciTech Connect

    Mortensen, Holly M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-09-15

    Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be applied to account for the lack of information about susceptibility. Defining genetic susceptibility in response to environmental chemicals across human populations is an area of interest in the NAS' new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessment. Data from high-throughput/high content (HT/HC), including -omics (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics) technologies, have been integral to the identification and characterization of drug target and disease loci, and have been successfully utilized to inform the mechanism of action for numerous environmental chemicals. Large-scale population genotyping studies may help to characterize levels of variability across human populations at identified target loci implicated in response to environmental chemicals. By combining mechanistic data for a given environmental chemical with next generation sequencing data that provides human population variation information, one can begin to characterize differential susceptibility due to genetic variability to environmental chemicals within and across genetically heterogeneous human populations. The integration of such data sources will be informative to human health risk assessment.

  2. Propensity and Risk Assessment for Solar Particle Events: Consideration of Integral Fluence at High Proton Energies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    For future space missions with longer duration, exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is the major concern during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. The expected SPE propensity for large proton fluence was estimated from a non-homogeneous Poisson model using the historical database for measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, Phi(sub 30). The database includes a continuous data set for the past 5 solar cycles. The resultant SPE risk analysis for a specific mission period was made including the 95% confidence level. In addition to total particle intensity of SPE, the detailed energy spectra of protons especially at high energy levels were recognized as extremely important parameter for the risk assessment, since there remains a significant cancer risks from those energetic particles for large events. Using all the recorded proton fluence of SPEs for energies >60 and >100 MeV, Phi(sub 60) and Phi(sub 100), respectively, the expected propensities of SPEs abundant with high energy protons were estimated from the same non-homogeneous Poisson model and the representative cancer risk was analyzed. The dependencies of risk with different energy spectra, for e.g. between soft and hard SPEs, were evaluated. Finally, we describe approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and optimize mission planning for future space missions.

  3. Quantitative risk assessment integrated with process simulator for a new technology of methanol production plant using recycled CO₂.

    PubMed

    Di Domenico, Julia; Vaz, Carlos André; de Souza, Maurício Bezerra

    2014-06-15

    The use of process simulators can contribute with quantitative risk assessment (QRA) by minimizing expert time and large volume of data, being mandatory in the case of a future plant. This work illustrates the advantages of this association by integrating UNISIM DESIGN simulation and QRA to investigate the acceptability of a new technology of a Methanol Production Plant in a region. The simulated process was based on the hydrogenation of chemically sequestered carbon dioxide, demanding stringent operational conditions (high pressures and temperatures) and involving the production of hazardous materials. The estimation of the consequences was performed using the PHAST software, version 6.51. QRA results were expressed in terms of individual and social risks. Compared to existing tolerance levels, the risks were considered tolerable in nominal conditions of operation of the plant. The use of the simulator in association with the QRA also allowed testing the risk in new operating conditions in order to delimit safe regions for the plant.

  4. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  5. An integrated probabilistic framework for cumulative risk assessment of common mechanism chemicals in food: an example with organophosphorus pesticides.

    PubMed

    Bosgra, Sieto; van der Voet, Hilko; Boon, Polly E; Slob, Wout

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents a framework for integrated probabilistic risk assessment of chemicals in the diet which accounts for the possibility of cumulative exposure to chemicals with a common mechanism of action. Variability between individuals in the population with respect to food consumption, concentrations of chemicals in the consumed foods, food processing habits and sensitivity towards the chemicals is addressed by Monte Carlo simulations. A large number of individuals are simulated, for which the individual exposure (iEXP), the individual critical effect dose (iCED) and the ratio between these values (the individual margin of exposure, iMoE) are calculated by drawing random values for all variable parameters from databases or specified distributions. This results in a population distribution of the iMoE, and the fraction of this distribution below 1 indicates the fraction of the population that may be at risk. Uncertainty in the assessment is treated as a separate dimension by repeating the Monte Carlo simulations many times, each time drawing random values for all uncertain parameters. In this framework, the cumulative exposure to common mechanism chemicals is addressed by incorporation of the relative potency factor (RPF) approach. The framework is demonstrated by the cumulative risk assessment of organophosphorus pesticides (OPs). By going through this example, the various choices and assumptions underlying the cumulative risk assessment are made explicit. The problems faced and the solutions chosen may be more generic than the present example with OPs. This demonstration may help to familiarize risk assessors and risk managers with the somewhat more complex output of probabilistic risk assessment.

  6. A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

  7. A decision support system for drinking water production integrating health risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-07-18

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation.

  8. Integrating diverse scientific and practitioner knowledge in ecological risk analysis: a case study of biodiversity risk assessment in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Dana, G V; Kapuscinski, A R; Donaldson, J S

    2012-05-15

    Ecological risk analysis (ERA) is a structured evaluation of threats to species, natural communities, and ecosystem processes from pollutants and toxicants and more complicated living stressors such as invasive species, genetically modified organisms, and biological control agents. Such analyses are typically conducted by a narrowly-focused group of scientific experts using technical information. We evaluate whether the inclusion of more diverse experts and practitioners in ERA improved the ecological knowledge base about South African biodiversity and the potential impacts of genetically modified (GM) crops. We conducted two participatory ERA workshops in South Africa, analyzing potential impacts of GM maize on biodiversity. The first workshop involved only four biological scientists, who were joined by 18 diverse scientists and practitioners in the second, and we compared the ERA process and results between the two using descriptive statistics and semi-structured interview responses. The addition of diverse experts and practitioners led to a more comprehensive understanding of biological composition of the agro-ecosystem and a more ecologically relevant set of hazards, but impeded hazard prioritization and the generation of precise risk assessment values. Results suggest that diverse participation can improve the scoping or problem formulation of the ERA, by generating an ecologically robust set of information on which to base the subsequent, more technical risk assessment. The participatory ERA process also increased the transparency of the ERA by exposing the logic and rationale for decisions made at each step.

  9. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment). PMID:27757402

  10. Propensity and risk assessment for solar particle events: Consideration of integral fluence at high proton energies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew; Feiveson, Alan; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    For future space missions with longer duration, exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is the major concern during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. The propensity for SPE occurrence with large proton fluence was estimated as a function of time within a solar cycle from a non-homogeneous Poisson model using the historical database for measurements of protons with energy >30 MeV, Φ30 . The database includes a continuous data set for the past 5 solar cycles. The resultant SPE risk analysis for a specific mission period was made for blood forming organ (BFO) dose ranging from its 5th to 95th percentile. In addition to the total particle intensity of SPEs, the detailed energy spectra of protons, especially at high energy levels, were recognized as extremely important for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. Using all the recorded proton fluence of SPEs for energies >60 and >100 MeV, Φ60 and Φ100 , respectively, the expected numbers of SPEs abundant with high energy protons were estimated from the same non-homogeneous Poisson model and the representative cancer risk was analyzed. The dependencies of risk with different energy spectra, for e.g. between soft and hard SPEs, were evaluated. Finally, we describe approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and optimize mission planning for future space missions.

  11. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    PubMed

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  12. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986.

  13. Integrating clinical features and genetic lesions in the risk assessment of patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Elena, Chiara; Gallì, Anna; Such, Esperanza; Meggendorfer, Manja; Germing, Ulrich; Rizzo, Ettore; Cervera, Jose; Molteni, Elisabetta; Fasan, Annette; Schuler, Esther; Ambaglio, Ilaria; Lopez-Pavia, Maria; Zibellini, Silvia; Kuendgen, Andrea; Travaglino, Erica; Sancho-Tello, Reyes; Catricalà, Silvia; Vicente, Ana I; Haferlach, Torsten; Haferlach, Claudia; Sanz, Guillermo F; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario

    2016-09-08

    Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm with variable clinical course. To predict the clinical outcome, we previously developed a CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) based on clinical parameters and cytogenetics. In this work, we tested the hypothesis that accounting for gene mutations would further improve risk stratification of CMML patients. We therefore sequenced 38 genes to explore the role of somatic mutations in disease phenotype and clinical outcome. Overall, 199 of 214 (93%) CMML patients carried at least 1 somatic mutation. Stepwise linear regression models showed that these mutations accounted for 15% to 24% of variability of clinical phenotype. Based on multivariable Cox regression analyses, cytogenetic abnormalities and mutations in RUNX1, NRAS, SETBP1, and ASXL1 were independently associated with overall survival (OS). Using these parameters, we defined a genetic score that identified 4 categories with significantly different OS and cumulative incidence of leukemic evolution. In multivariable analyses, genetic score, red blood cell transfusion dependency, white blood cell count, and marrow blasts retained independent prognostic value. These parameters were included into a clinical/molecular CPSS (CPSS-Mol) model that identified 4 risk groups with markedly different median OS (from >144 to 18 months, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.69) and cumulative incidence of leukemic evolution (from 0% to 48% at 4 years, HR = 3.84) (P < .001). The CPSS-Mol fully retained its ability to risk stratify in an independent validation cohort of 260 CMML patients. In conclusion, integrating conventional parameters and gene mutations significantly improves risk stratification of CMML patients, providing a robust basis for clinical decision-making and a reliable tool for clinical trials.

  14. Integrating clinical features and genetic lesions in the risk assessment of patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Elena, Chiara; Gallì, Anna; Such, Esperanza; Meggendorfer, Manja; Germing, Ulrich; Rizzo, Ettore; Cervera, Jose; Molteni, Elisabetta; Fasan, Annette; Schuler, Esther; Ambaglio, Ilaria; Lopez-Pavia, Maria; Zibellini, Silvia; Kuendgen, Andrea; Travaglino, Erica; Sancho-Tello, Reyes; Catricalà, Silvia; Vicente, Ana I.; Haferlach, Torsten; Haferlach, Claudia; Sanz, Guillermo F.; Cazzola, Mario

    2016-01-01

    Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm with variable clinical course. To predict the clinical outcome, we previously developed a CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) based on clinical parameters and cytogenetics. In this work, we tested the hypothesis that accounting for gene mutations would further improve risk stratification of CMML patients. We therefore sequenced 38 genes to explore the role of somatic mutations in disease phenotype and clinical outcome. Overall, 199 of 214 (93%) CMML patients carried at least 1 somatic mutation. Stepwise linear regression models showed that these mutations accounted for 15% to 24% of variability of clinical phenotype. Based on multivariable Cox regression analyses, cytogenetic abnormalities and mutations in RUNX1, NRAS, SETBP1, and ASXL1 were independently associated with overall survival (OS). Using these parameters, we defined a genetic score that identified 4 categories with significantly different OS and cumulative incidence of leukemic evolution. In multivariable analyses, genetic score, red blood cell transfusion dependency, white blood cell count, and marrow blasts retained independent prognostic value. These parameters were included into a clinical/molecular CPSS (CPSS-Mol) model that identified 4 risk groups with markedly different median OS (from >144 to 18 months, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.69) and cumulative incidence of leukemic evolution (from 0% to 48% at 4 years, HR = 3.84) (P < .001). The CPSS-Mol fully retained its ability to risk stratify in an independent validation cohort of 260 CMML patients. In conclusion, integrating conventional parameters and gene mutations significantly improves risk stratification of CMML patients, providing a robust basis for clinical decision-making and a reliable tool for clinical trials. PMID:27385790

  15. Integration of a radiation biomarker into modeling of thyroid carcinogenesis and post-Chernobyl risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Kaiser, Jan Christian; Meckbach, Reinhard; Eidemüller, Markus; Selmansberger, Martin; Unger, Kristian; Shpak, Viktor; Blettner, Maria; Zitzelsberger, Horst; Jacob, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Strong evidence for the statistical association between radiation exposure and disease has been produced for thyroid cancer by epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl accident. However, limitations of the epidemiological approach in order to explore health risks especially at low doses of radiation appear obvious. Statistical fluctuations due to small case numbers dominate the uncertainty of risk estimates. Molecular radiation markers have been searched extensively to separate radiation-induced cancer cases from sporadic cases. The overexpression of the CLIP2 gene is the most promising of these markers. It was found in the majority of papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) from young patients included in the Chernobyl tissue bank. Motivated by the CLIP2 findings we propose a mechanistic model which describes PTC development as a sequence of rate-limiting events in two distinct paths of CLIP2-associated and multistage carcinogenesis. It integrates molecular measurements of the dichotomous CLIP2 marker from 141 patients into the epidemiological risk analysis for about 13 000 subjects from the Ukrainian-American cohort which were exposed below age 19 years and were put under enhanced medical surveillance since 1998. For the first time, a radiation risk has been estimated solely from marker measurements. Cross checking with epidemiological estimates and model validation suggests that CLIP2 is a marker of high precision. CLIP2 leaves an imprint in the epidemiological incidence data which is typical for a driver gene. With the mechanistic model, we explore the impact of radiation on the molecular landscape of PTC. The model constitutes a unique interface between molecular biology and radiation epidemiology. PMID:27729373

  16. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  17. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  18. Integrating risks at contaminated sites

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.; Habegger, L.; Nieves, L.; Schreiber, Z.; Travis, C.

    2000-02-17

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for a number of large sites across the country that were radioactively and chemically contaminated by past nuclear research, development, and production activities. Multiple risk assessments are being conducted for these sites to evaluate current conditions and determine what measures are needed to protect human health and the environment from today through the long term. Integrating the risks associated with multiple contaminants in different environmental media across extensive areas, over time periods that extend beyond 1,000 years, and for a number of different impact categories--from human health and ecological to social and economic--represents a considerable challenge. A central element of these integrated analyses is the ability to reflect key interrelationships among environmental resources and human communities that may be adversely affected by the actions or inactions being considered for a given site. Complicating the already difficult task of integrating many kinds of risk is the importance of reflecting the diverse values and preferences brought to bear by the multiple parties interested in the risk analysis process and outcome. An initial conceptual framework has been developed to provide an organized structure to this risk integration, with the aim of supporting effective environmental management decisions. This paper highlights key issues associated with comprehensive risk integration and offers suggestions developed from preliminary work at a complex DOE site.

  19. Copula-based drought risk assessment combined with an integrated index in the Wei River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Jianxia; Li, Yunyun; Wang, Yimin; Yuan, Meng

    2016-09-01

    It is critical to assess drought risk based on a reliably integrated drought index incorporating comprehensive information of meteorology, hydrology and agriculture drought indices, which is of great value for further understanding the future drought tendency, prevention and mitigation. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to focus on constructing a multivariate integrated drought index (MIDI) by coupling four drought indices (i.e., Precipitation Anomaly Percentage (PAP), Runoff Anomaly Percentage (RAP), Standardized Precipitation Index with 6-month aggregation time step (SPI6) and Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI)) to objectively and comprehensively investigate drought risk. The variable fuzzy set theory and entropy weight method are used during the MIDI construction process. Based on the MIDI, a drought event including drought duration and severity is redefined using run theory. Then copula-based drought risk is fully assessed through the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. Results indicate the following: (1) the constructed MIDI is consistent with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Runoff Anomaly Percentage (RAP) series, and it is more sensitive and effective to capture historical drought events; (2) the drought characteristics present noticeable spatial variability among five subzones, and the entire basin has 49 droughts with the longest drought duration spanning 8.55 months; and (3) the mainstream, especially the middle and lower reaches, has higher occurrences of severe droughts for approximately every 10 years.

  20. A Strategy to Integrate Probabilistic Risk Assessment into Design and Development Processes for Aerospace Based pon Mars Exploration Rover Experiences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nunes, Jeffery; Paulos, Todd; Everline, Chester J.; Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2006-01-01

    This paper will discuss the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) effort and its involvement with related activities during the development of the Mars Exploration Rover (MER). The Rovers were launched 2003.June.10 (Spirit) and 2003.July.7 (Opportunity), and both have proven very successful. Although designed for a 90-day mission, the Rovers have been operating for over two earth years. This paper will review aspects of how the MER project integrated PRA into the design and development process. A companion paper (Development of the Mars Exploration Rover PRA) will describe the MER PRA and design changes from those results.

  1. Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Doug; Bauman, David; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

    2011-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

  2. Integrated hazard, risk and impact assessment of tropical marine sediments from Tema Harbour (Ghana).

    PubMed

    Botwe, Benjamin O; De Schamphelaere, Kristine; Schipper, Cor A; Teuchies, Johannes; Blust, Ronny; Nyarko, Elvis; Lens, Piet N L

    2017-02-28

    The potential ecological hazard, risk and impact of tropical marine sediments from the Tema Harbour (Greater Accra, Ghana) was investigated by integrating Corophium volutator and Hediste diversicolor whole-sediment toxicity bioassays with data on the metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and As) concentrations of the sediments. The whole-sediment toxicity bioassay results showed that sediments of the Tema Harbour are potentially hazardous to marine benthic invertebrates. C. volutator exhibited a higher vulnerability to the sediment toxicity than H. diversicolor, although the latter showed higher biota-sediment accumulation factors for the investigated metals. Statistically significant correlations were observed between C. volutator mortality and sediment Cd concentration (r = 0.84, p < 0.05; n = 6) and between H. diversicolor mortality and sediment Cu concentration (r = 0.94, p < 0.05; n = 5). Comparison of metal concentrations with international action levels for contaminated sediment disposal indicates that the Tema Harbour sediments contain potentially hazardous concentrations of Cu and Zn. This study shows that sediments from the Tema Harbour are not suitable for disposal at sea without remediation. There is, therefore, a need to improve environmental management and regulate the disposal of dredged material originating from the Tema Harbour.

  3. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  4. Fracture risk assessment: improved evaluation of vertebral integrity among metastatic cancer patients to aid in surgical decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.

    2012-03-01

    Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.

  5. NOAA's Integrated Tsunami Database: Data for improved forecasts, warnings, research, and risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroker, Kelly; Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; McCullough, Heather; Carignan, Kelly

    2015-04-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility in the United States for tsunami forecast, warning, research, and supports community resiliency. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics provide a unique collection of data enabling communities to ensure preparedness and resilience to tsunami hazards. Immediately following a damaging or fatal tsunami event there is a need for authoritative data and information. The NGDC Global Historical Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/) includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. The long-term data from these events, including photographs of damage, provide clues to what might happen in the future. NGDC catalogs the information on global historical tsunamis and uses these data to produce qualitative tsunami hazard assessments at regional levels. In addition to the socioeconomic effects of a tsunami, NGDC also obtains water level data from the coasts and the deep-ocean at stations operated by the NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, and the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and produces research-quality data to isolate seismic waves (in the case of the deep-ocean sites) and the tsunami signal. These water-level data provide evidence of sea-level fluctuation and possible inundation events. NGDC is also building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to support real-time forecasts, implemented at 75 US coastal communities. After a damaging or fatal event NGDC begins to collect and integrate data and information from many organizations into the hazards databases. Sources of data include our NOAA partners, the U.S. Geological Survey, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and International Tsunami Information Center

  6. Integrated Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Suxian County, South China.

    PubMed

    Song, Daping; Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Fu, Jingying; Wang, Qiao

    2015-06-24

    The purpose of this study was to assess soil heavy metal contamination and the potential risk for local residents in Suxian county of Hunan Province, southern China. Soil, rice and vegetable samples from the areas near the mining industrial districts were sampled and analyzed. The results indicate that the anthropogenic mining activities have caused local agricultural soil contamination with As, Pb, Cu and Cd in the ranges of 8.47-341.33 mg/kg, 19.91-837.52 mg/kg, 8.41-148.73 mg/kg and 0.35-6.47 mg/kg, respectively. GIS-based mapping shows that soil heavy metal concentrations abruptly diminish with increasing distance from the polluting source. The concentrations of As, Pb, Cu and Cd found in rice were in the ranges of 0.02-1.48 mg/kg, 0.66-5.78 mg/kg, 0.09-6.75 mg/kg, and up to 1.39 mg/kg, respectively. Most of these concentrations exceed their maximum permissible levels for contaminants in foods in China. Heavy metals accumulate to significantly different levels between leafy vegetables and non-leafy vegetables. Food consumption and soil ingestion exposure are the two routes that contribute to the average daily intake dose of heavy metals for local adults. Moreover, the total hazard indices of As, Pb and Cd are greater than or close to the safety threshold of 1. Long-term As, Pb and Cd exposure through the regular consumption of the soil, rice and vegetables in the investigated area poses potential health problems to residents in the vicinity of the mining industry.

  7. Integrated Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Suxian County, South China

    PubMed Central

    Song, Daping; Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Fu, Jingying; Wang, Qiao

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess soil heavy metal contamination and the potential risk for local residents in Suxian county of Hunan Province, southern China. Soil, rice and vegetable samples from the areas near the mining industrial districts were sampled and analyzed. The results indicate that the anthropogenic mining activities have caused local agricultural soil contamination with As, Pb, Cu and Cd in the ranges of 8.47–341.33 mg/kg, 19.91–837.52 mg/kg, 8.41–148.73 mg/kg and 0.35–6.47 mg/kg, respectively. GIS-based mapping shows that soil heavy metal concentrations abruptly diminish with increasing distance from the polluting source. The concentrations of As, Pb, Cu and Cd found in rice were in the ranges of 0.02–1.48 mg/kg, 0.66–5.78 mg/kg, 0.09–6.75 mg/kg, and up to 1.39 mg/kg, respectively. Most of these concentrations exceed their maximum permissible levels for contaminants in foods in China. Heavy metals accumulate to significantly different levels between leafy vegetables and non-leafy vegetables. Food consumption and soil ingestion exposure are the two routes that contribute to the average daily intake dose of heavy metals for local adults. Moreover, the total hazard indices of As, Pb and Cd are greater than or close to the safety threshold of 1. Long-term As, Pb and Cd exposure through the regular consumption of the soil, rice and vegetables in the investigated area poses potential health problems to residents in the vicinity of the mining industry. PMID:26114243

  8. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  9. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  10. TYPES OF INTEGRATION IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, AND WHY THEY ARE NEEDED

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for int...

  11. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment.

  12. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    SciTech Connect

    Tuxen, L.

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  13. Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

    2012-01-01

    The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

  14. An Integrated Approach to Assess Exposure and Health-Risk from Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a Fastener Manufacturing Industry

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Hsin-I; Lin, Ming-Yeng; Chen, Yu-Cheng; Chen, Wang-Yi; Yoon, Chungsik; Chen, Mei-Ru; Tsai, Perng-Jy

    2014-01-01

    An integrated approach was developed to assess exposure and health-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contained in oil mists in a fastener manufacturing industry. One previously developed model and one new model were adopted for predicting oil mist exposure concentrations emitted from metal work fluid (MWF) and PAHs contained in MWF by using the fastener production rate (Pr) and cumulative fastener production rate (CPr) as predictors, respectively. By applying the annual Pr and CPr records to the above two models, long-term workplace PAH exposure concentrations were predicted. In addition, true exposure data was also collected from the field. The predicted and measured concentrations respectively served as the prior and likelihood distributions in the Bayesian decision analysis (BDA), and the resultant posterior distributions were used to determine the long-term exposure and health-risks posed on workers. Results show that long term exposures to PAHs would result in a 3.1%, 96.7%, and 73.4% chance of exceeding the PEL-TWA (0.2 mg/m3), action level (0.1 mg/m3), and acceptable health risk (10−3), respectively. In conclusion, preventive measures should be taken immediately to reduce workers’ PAH exposures. PMID:25226413

  15. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  16. Integrating Corporate Governance Concepts in the Classroom with the Risk Assessment Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elson, Raymond J.; O'Callaghan, Susanne; Walker, John P.

    2015-01-01

    The recession of 2008 and the demise of established financial firms served as a reminder that effective corporate governance is important to ensure that businesses remain as going concern. One key area is the implementation of effective enterprise-wide risk management practices. The resulting regulatory oversight enacted through the Dodd Frank Act…

  17. Using an Integrated, Multi-disciplinary Framework to Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) provides the infrastructure to link disparate models and databases seamlessly, giving an assessor the ability to construct an appropriate conceptual site model from a host of modeling choices, so a numbe...

  18. Integrative assessment of multiple pesticides as risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among men

    PubMed Central

    De Roos, A J; Zahm, S; Cantor, K; Weisenburger, D; Holmes, F; Burmeister, L; Blair, A

    2003-01-01

    Methods: During the 1980s, the National Cancer Institute conducted three case-control studies of NHL in the midwestern United States. These pooled data were used to examine pesticide exposures in farming as risk factors for NHL in men. The large sample size (n = 3417) allowed analysis of 47 pesticides simultaneously, controlling for potential confounding by other pesticides in the model, and adjusting the estimates based on a prespecified variance to make them more stable. Results: Reported use of several individual pesticides was associated with increased NHL incidence, including organophosphate insecticides coumaphos, diazinon, and fonofos, insecticides chlordane, dieldrin, and copper acetoarsenite, and herbicides atrazine, glyphosate, and sodium chlorate. A subanalysis of these "potentially carcinogenic" pesticides suggested a positive trend of risk with exposure to increasing numbers. Conclusion: Consideration of multiple exposures is important in accurately estimating specific effects and in evaluating realistic exposure scenarios. PMID:12937207

  19. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  20. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  1. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  2. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  3. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  4. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  5. Integrated assessment briefs

    SciTech Connect

    1995-04-01

    Integrated assessment can be used to evaluate and clarify resource management policy options and outcomes for decision makers. The defining characteristics of integrated assessment are (1) focus on providing information and analysis that can be understood and used by decision makers rather than for merely advancing understanding and (2) its multidisciplinary approach, using methods, styles of study, and considerations from a broader variety of technical areas than would typically characterize studies produced from a single disciplinary standpoint. Integrated assessment may combine scientific, social, economic, health, and environmental data and models. Integrated assessment requires bridging the gap between science and policy considerations. Because not everything can be valued using a single metric, such as a dollar value, the integrated assessment process also involves evaluating trade-offs among dissimilar attributes. Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recognized the importance and value of multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems early on and have pioneered the development of tools and methods for integrated assessment over the past three decades. Major examples of ORNL`s experience in the development of its capabilities for integrated assessment are given.

  6. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  7. Workflow Integrating Fracture Permeability Characterization and Multiphase Flow Modeling for CO2 Storage and Risk Assessments in Fractured Reservoirs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, G.; Pashin, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Ensuring safe and permanent storage of sequestered CO2in naturally fractured geological media is vital for the success of geologic storage projects. Critical needs exist to develop advanced techniques to characterize and model fluid transport in naturally fractured reservoirs and seals. We have developed a scale-independent 3-D stochastic fracture permeability characterization workflow that employs multiple discrete fracture network (DFN) realizations. The workflow deploys a multidirectional flux-based upwind weighting scheme that is capable of modeling multiphase flow in highly heterogeneous fractured media. The techniques employed herein show great promise for increasing the accuracy of capacity determinations and the prediction of pressure footprints associated with injected CO2 plumes. The proposed workflow has been conducted in a simulation study of flow transport and risk assessment of CO2 injection into a deep fractured saline formation using geological parameters from Knox Group carbonate and Red Mountain shale rocks in central Alabama. A 3-D fracture permeability map was generated from multiple realizations of DFN models. A multiphase flow model composed of supercritical CO2 and saline water was applied to simulate CO2 plume evolution during and after injection. Injection simulation reveals significant permeability anisotropy that favors development of northeast-elongate CO2 plumes. The spreading front of the CO2 plume shows strong viscous fingering effects. Post-injection simulation indicates significant lateral spreading of CO2 near the top of the fractured formations because of the buoyancy of injectate in rock matrix and strata-bound vertical fractures. Risk assessment shows that although pressure drops faster in the fractured formations than in those lacking fractures, lateral movement of CO2 along natural fractures necessitates that the injectate be confined by widespread seals with high integrity.

  8. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  9. eNanoMapper: harnessing ontologies to enable data integration for nanomaterial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hastings, Janna; Jeliazkova, Nina; Owen, Gareth; Tsiliki, Georgia; Munteanu, Cristian R; Steinbeck, Christoph; Willighagen, Egon

    2015-01-01

    Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are being developed to meet specific application needs in diverse domains across the engineering and biomedical sciences (e.g. drug delivery). However, accompanying the exciting proliferation of novel nanomaterials is a challenging race to understand and predict their possibly detrimental effects on human health and the environment. The eNanoMapper project (www.enanomapper.net) is creating a pan-European computational infrastructure for toxicological data management for ENMs, based on semantic web standards and ontologies. Here, we describe the development of the eNanoMapper ontology based on adopting and extending existing ontologies of relevance for the nanosafety domain. The resulting eNanoMapper ontology is available at http://purl.enanomapper.net/onto/enanomapper.owl. We aim to make the re-use of external ontology content seamless and thus we have developed a library to automate the extraction of subsets of ontology content and the assembly of the subsets into an integrated whole. The library is available (open source) at http://github.com/enanomapper/slimmer/. Finally, we give a comprehensive survey of the domain content and identify gap areas. ENM safety is at the boundary between engineering and the life sciences, and at the boundary between molecular granularity and bulk granularity. This creates challenges for the definition of key entities in the domain, which we also discuss.

  10. Systemic Approach for Health Risk Assessment of Ambient Air Concentrations of Benzene in Petrochemical Environments: Integration of Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Network, and IRIS Toxicity Method

    PubMed Central

    NOVIN, Vahid; GIVEHCHI, Saeed; HOVEIDI, Hassan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Reliable methods are crucial to cope with uncertainties in the risk analysis process. The aim of this study is to develop an integrated approach to assessing risks of benzene in the petrochemical plant that produces benzene. We offer an integrated system to contribute imprecise variables into the health risk calculation. Methods: The project was conducted in Asaluyeh, southern Iran during the years from 2013 to 2014. Integrated method includes fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. Each technique had specific computational properties. Fuzzy logic was used for estimation of absorption rate. Artificial neural networks can decrease the noise of the data so applied for prediction of benzene concentration. First, the actual exposure was calculated then it combined with Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) toxicity factors to assess real health risks. Results: High correlation between the measured and predicted benzene concentration was achieved (R2= 0.941). As for variable distribution, the best estimation of risk in a population implied 33% of workers exposed less than 1×10−5 and 67% inserted between 1.0×10−5 to 9.8×10−5 risk levels. The average estimated risk of exposure to benzene for entire work zones is equal to 2.4×10−5, ranging from 1.5×10−6 to 6.9×10−5. Conclusion: The integrated model is highly flexible as well as the rules possibly will be changed according to the necessities of the user in a different circumstance. The measured exposures can be duplicated well through proposed model and realistic risk assessment data will be produced. PMID:27957464

  11. Integrating Safety Assessment Methods using the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

    2013-03-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the current light water reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of systems, structures, and components (SSC) degradations or failures that initiate safety significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated primarily based on engineering judgment backed by a set of conservative engineering calculations. The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about LWR design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development (R&D) in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the RISMC Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as margins management strategies. The purpose of the RISMC Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk

  12. [An approach for integrated assessment of eco-risk in coastal waters based on catastrophe theory: taking Luoyuan Bay as a case].

    PubMed

    Chen, Ke-Liang; Shi, Ya-Lou; Lin, Zhi-Lan; Wang, Jin-Keng; Ouyang, Yu-Rong; Jiang, Jin-Long

    2012-01-01

    Based on catastrophe theory, this paper established an index system and catastrophe progression model for the integrated assessment of eco-risk in coastal waters, including three risk types of "eutrophication-heavy metal pollution-organic pollution" and three dimensions of "water-sediment-organism". According to the related quality standards, a four-level evaluation standard of eco-risk (zero, low, medium, and high) was proposed, and by using the monitoring data of 2007 and 2009, an integrated assessment of the eco-risk in Luoyuan Bay was conducted. In 2007-2009, the spatial variation of the eco-risk in Luoyuan Bay had a downward trend from bayhead to baymouth, and the risk level in 2009 was overall lower than that in 2007. The key factor of the eco-risk in the Bay was eutrophication. The approach established in this paper could identify the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of eco-risk in coastal waters, and better reflect the key eco-risk factor, providing a basic approach for effective forecasting and early warning of eco-risk in coastal waters.

  13. Integrated Science Assessments

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Integrated Science Assessments are reports that represent a concise evaluation and synthesis of the most policy-relevant science for reviewing the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for the six principal pollutants.

  14. Integrated Exposure Assessment Monitoring.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Behar, Joseph V.; And Others

    1979-01-01

    Integrated Exposure Assessment Monitoring is the coordination of environmental (air, water, land, and crops) monitoring networks to collect systematically pollutant exposure data for a specific receptor, usually man. (Author/BB)

  15. Improving ecological risk assessment of persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals by using an integrated modeling system - An example assessing chloroparaffins in riverine environments.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chemical risk assessment (CRA) is primarily carried out at the screening level relying on empirical relationships between chemical properties and tested toxicity effects. Ultimately, risk to aquatic ecosystems is strongly dependent on actual exposure, which depends on chemical pr...

  16. An integrated risk assessment model of township-scaled land subsidence based on an evidential reasoning algorithm and fuzzy set theory.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yu; Shu, Longcang; Burbey, Thomas J

    2014-04-01

    Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor-level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi-Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information--quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise--to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.

  17. Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

    EPA Science Inventory

    Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be ap...

  18. Integrated Disinfection By-Products Research: Assessing Reproductive and Developmental Risks Posed by Complex Disinfection By-Product Mixtures

    EPA Science Inventory

    This article presents a toxicologically-based risk assessment strategy for identifying the individual components or fractions of a complex mixture that are associated with its toxicity. The strategy relies on conventional component-based mixtures risk approaches such as dose addi...

  19. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  20. Integrating hierarchical bioavailability and population distribution into potential eco-risk assessment of heavy metals in road dust: A case study in Xiandao District, Changsha city, China.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jinhui; Li, Fei; Zeng, Guangming; Liu, Wenchu; Huang, Xiaolong; Xiao, Zhihua; Wu, Haipeng; Gu, Yanling; Li, Xue; He, Xiaoxiao; He, Yan

    2016-01-15

    Modified eco-risk assessment method (MEAM) integrated with the hierarchical bioavailability determined by the fraction detection of Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu, Cr in road dust samples and the local population distribution derived from the local land use map, was proposed to make the hierarchical eco-risk management strategy in Xiandao District (XDD), China. The geo-accumulation index (Igeo), the original potential eco-risk index (Er(i)) and the modified eco-risk assessment index (MEAI) were used to identify the priority pollutant. Compared with the Hunan soil background values, evaluated metal concentrations were found to different extent. The results of mean Igeo, Er(i) and bioavailability of studied metals revealed the following orders: Cd>Pb ≈ Zn>Cu ≈ Cr, Cd>Pb>Cu>Cr>Zn and Cd>Zn>Cu ≈ Pb>Cr, respectively. Therefore, Cd was regarded as the priority pollutant. To identify the priority areas taking into account cost consideration, the hierarchical risk map based on the results of the modified eco-risk assessment index with overlay of the population density map was needed and made. The west and partly south areas of XDD were under higher eco-risk generally. Moreover, the whole XDD area was divided into 4 area categories with different management priorities based on the possibility of occurrence of eco-risk, and the hierarchical risk management strategy associated with protecting local population was suggested to facilitate allocation of funds for risk management.

  1. Risk Assessment Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-10-01

    2W0 ww) A number of computer-based risk assessment tools were enhanced or creaited to provide Increased access to risk assessment instruments and...produced an extensible authoring tool , SYNTAS, for test instruments that will simplify the data gathering phase of subsequent work. SYNTAS gives DNA...Ultimately it became a computer-assisted software engineerting (CASE) tool capable of producing a wide variety of assessment instruments . In addition, its

  2. Risk assessment, disease prevention and personalised treatments in breast cancer: is clinically qualified integrative approach in the horizon?

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is a multifactorial disease. A spectrum of internal and external factors contributes to the disease promotion such as a genetic predisposition, chronic inflammatory processes, exposure to toxic compounds, abundant stress factors, a shift-worker job, etc. The cumulative effects lead to high incidence of breast cancer in populations worldwide. Breast cancer in the USA is currently registered with the highest incidence rates amongst all cancer related patient cohorts. Currently applied diagnostic approaches are frequently unable to recognise early stages in tumour development that impairs individual outcomes. Early diagnosis has been demonstrated to be highly beneficial for significantly enhanced therapy efficacy and possibly full recovery. Actual paper shows that the elaboration of an integrative diagnostic approach combining several levels of examinations creates a robust platform for the reliable risk assessment, targeted preventive measures and more effective treatments tailored to the person in the overall task of breast cancer management. The levels of examinations are proposed, and innovative technological approaches are described in the paper. The absolute necessity to create individual patient profiles and extended medical records is justified for the utilising by routine medical services. Expert recommendations are provided to promote further developments in the field. PMID:23418957

  3. Risk assessment of dietary supplements.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan R

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment of dietary supplements shares many of the requirements of that for other chemicals, although there are some important differences. Amongst these is the essential nature of some nutrients so that it may be necessary to balance the need to minimize toxicological risk with the need to avoid deficiency. There may also be limitations on experimental design, in that high doses may not be achievable for nutritional reasons and available human data on toxicological hazard is likely to be very limited. Prior to embarking on a risk assessment the problem needs to be formulated. This involves risk assessors, risk managers and relevant stakeholders. A key decision is whether a risk assessment is necessary and, if so, what is required of the assessment. This will shape the nature and output of the assessment. Risk assessment itself is a scientific process comprising four steps, hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification involves determining the range of toxicological effects that might be caused by the substance, whilst hazard characterization establishes dose-response relationships, toxicological and species relevance of the findings and establishes health based guidance values. Exposure assessment involves predicting or measuring the level, pattern and duration of intake of the substance by exposed individuals. This may require dietary consumption data. Finally, risk characterization is the process whereby all of the prior information is integrated to reach conclusions in a form appropriate to the question posed. The nature of the output can take several different forms, and may be qualitative or quantitative. There are some cross-cutting issues in risk assessment, primarily on uncertainty and variability. The sources of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment should be clearly identified and quantified to the extent possible. Variability requires that the risk assessment should

  4. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  5. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  6. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  7. Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

  8. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  9. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  10. A strategic analysis study-based approach to integrated risk assessment: Occupational health risks from environmental restoration and waste management activities at Hanford

    SciTech Connect

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Doctor, P.G.; Buschbom, R.L.; Glantz, C.S.; Daling, P.M.; Sever, L.E.; Vargo, G.J. Jr.; Strachan, D.M.; Pajunen, A.L.; Hoyt, R.C.; Ludowise, J.D.

    1993-06-01

    The goal of environmental restoration and waste management activities is to reduce public health risks or to delay risks to the future when new technology will be available for improved cleanup solutions. Actions to remediate the wastes on the Hanford Site will entail risks to workers, the public, and the environment that do not currently exist. In some circumstances, remediation activities will create new exposure pathways that are not present without cleanup activities. In addition, cleanup actions will redistribute existing health risks over time and space, and will likely shift health risks to cleanup workers in the short term. This report describes an approach to occupational risk assessment based on the Hanford Strategic Analysis Study and illustrates the approach by comparing worker risks for two options for remediation of N/K fuels, a subcategory of unprocessed irradiated fuels at Hanford.

  11. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  12. An integrated model for assessing heavy metal exposure risk to migratory birds in wetland ecosystem: A case study in Dongting Lake Wetland, China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jiayu; Liang, Jie; Yuan, Xingzhong; Zeng, Guangming; Yuan, Yujie; Wu, Haipeng; Huang, Xiaolong; Liu, Junfeng; Hua, Shanshan; Li, Fei; Li, Xiaodong

    2015-09-01

    Heavy metal contamination is present in wetland ecosystem worldwide, and quantitative risk assessment model is significant. In this study, an exposure model was integrated for assessing heavy metal exposure risk to migratory birds in Dongting Lake Wetland (DTW). The concentrations of Cr, Cu, Pb, Cd, Hg and As in water, plant, soil and fish were investigated from 9 migratory bird habitats. The results showed that exposure doses from drinking water pathways were very low. There was a sensitive area that Cd and As exposure doses exceeded the most conservative tolerable daily intake, which is located at the estuary of Xiang River. In general, Dunlin had a greater risk than Eurasian Spoonbill. Hg, Pb and Cr were likely to have adverse effect on carnivorous migrants in DTW, while Cu and Cd were considered to be relatively safe. Almost all heavy metals were at no risk for Lesser White-fronted Goose in DTW.

  13. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  14. Integrated assessment of behavioral and environmental risk factors for Lyme disease infection on Block Island, Rhode Island.

    PubMed

    Finch, Casey; Al-Damluji, Mohammed Salim; Krause, Peter J; Niccolai, Linda; Steeves, Tanner; O'Keefe, Corrine Folsom; Diuk-Wasser, Maria A

    2014-01-01

    Peridomestic exposure to Borrelia burgdorferi-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs is considered the dominant means of infection with black-legged tick-borne pathogens in the eastern United States. Population level studies have detected a positive association between the density of infected nymphs and Lyme disease incidence. At a finer spatial scale within endemic communities, studies have focused on individual level risk behaviors, without accounting for differences in peridomestic nymphal density. This study simultaneously assessed the influence of peridomestic tick exposure risk and human behavior risk factors for Lyme disease infection on Block Island, Rhode Island. Tick exposure risk on Block Island properties was estimated using remotely sensed landscape metrics that strongly correlated with tick density at the individual property level. Behavioral risk factors and Lyme disease serology were assessed using a longitudinal serosurvey study. Significant factors associated with Lyme disease positive serology included one or more self-reported previous Lyme disease episodes, wearing protective clothing during outdoor activities, the average number of hours spent daily in tick habitat, the subject's age and the density of shrub edges on the subject's property. The best fit multivariate model included previous Lyme diagnoses and age. The strength of this association with previous Lyme disease suggests that the same sector of the population tends to be repeatedly infected. The second best multivariate model included a combination of environmental and behavioral factors, namely hours spent in vegetation, subject's age, shrub edge density (increase risk) and wearing protective clothing (decrease risk). Our findings highlight the importance of concurrent evaluation of both environmental and behavioral factors to design interventions to reduce the risk of tick-borne infections.

  15. The VORISA Project: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Volcanic Hazard and Risk in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindsay, J. M.; Moufti, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has numerous large monogenetic volcanic fields, known locally as 'Harrat'. The largest of these, Harrat Rahat, produced a basaltic fissure eruption in 1256 AD with lava flows travelling within 20 km of the Islamic holy city Al-Madinah. With over 900 visible basaltic and trachytic vents and periodic seismic swarms indicating stalled eruptions, an understanding of the risk of future eruptions in this volcanic field is vital. To systematically address this need we developed the Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia (VORISA) Project, a 3-year, multi-disciplinary international research collaboration that integrates geological, geophysical, hazard and risk studies. Detailed mapping and geochemical studies are being combined with new and existing age determinations to determine the style and sequence of events during past basaltic and trachytic eruptions. Data from gravity and magnetotelluric surveys are being integrated with microearthquake data from an 8-station borehole seismic research array to geophysically characterise the structure and nature of the crust, and thus constrain possible physical controls on magma propagation. All available data are being synthesised in hazard models to determine patterns in eruption frequency, magnitude, and style of past activity, as well as the probable location and style of a future event. Combined with geospatial vulnerability data, these hazard models, which include a reconstruction of the 1256 AD eruption, enable us to calculate and communicate volcanic risk to the city of Al-Madinah.

  16. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  17. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  18. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R. G.; Jusko, M. J.; Clemmons, M. A.

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  19. An Integrated Approach for Physical and Cyber Security Risk Assessment: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Common Risk Model for Dams

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-07-01

    Department of Homeland Security (DHS), is a consistent, mathematically rigorous, and easy to implement method for security risk assessment of dams... mathematically justifiable. The model also enables comparisons of risks to critical assets, both within and across critical infrastructure sectors...effective defenses at the dam; that is, the vulnerability, or P(S|A), for every scenario equals 1.0. Mathematically , this means that RC equals the

  20. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  1. The Wild Wild West: A Framework to Integrate mHealth Software Applications and Wearables to Support Physical Activity Assessment, Counseling and Interventions for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

    PubMed

    Lobelo, Felipe; Kelli, Heval M; Tejedor, Sheri Chernetsky; Pratt, Michael; McConnell, Michael V; Martin, Seth S; Welk, Gregory J

    2016-01-01

    Physical activity (PA) interventions constitute a critical component of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction programs. Objective mobile health (mHealth) software applications (apps) and wearable activity monitors (WAMs) can advance both assessment and integration of PA counseling in clinical settings and support community-based PA interventions. The use of mHealth technology for CVD risk reduction is promising, but integration into routine clinical care and population health management has proven challenging. The increasing diversity of available technologies and the lack of a comprehensive guiding framework are key barriers for standardizing data collection and integration. This paper reviews the validity, utility and feasibility of implementing mHealth technology in clinical settings and proposes an organizational framework to support PA assessment, counseling and referrals to community resources for CVD risk reduction interventions. This integration framework can be adapted to different clinical population needs. It should also be refined as technologies and regulations advance under an evolving health care system landscape in the United States and globally.

  2. The Wild Wild West: A Framework to Integrate mHealth Software Applications and Wearables to Support Physical Activity Assessment, Counseling and Interventions for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction

    PubMed Central

    Lobelo, Felipe; Kelli, Heval M.; Tejedor, Sheri Chernetsky; Pratt, Michael; McConnell, Michael V.; Martin, Seth S.; Welk, Gregory J.

    2017-01-01

    Physical activity (PA) interventions constitute a critical component of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction programs. Objective mobile health (mHealth) software applications (apps) and wearable activity monitors (WAMs) can advance both assessment and integration of PA counseling in clinical settings and support community-based PA interventions. The use of mHealth technology for CVD risk reduction is promising, but integration into routine clinical care and population health management has proven challenging. The increasing diversity of available technologies and the lack of a comprehensive guiding framework are key barriers for standardizing data collection and integration. This paper reviews the validity, utility and feasibility of implementing mHealth technology in clinical settings and proposes an organizational framework to support PA assessment, counseling and referrals to community resources for CVD risk reduction interventions. This integration framework can be adapted to different clinical population needs. It should also be refined as technologies and regulations advance under an evolving health care system landscape in the United States and globally. PMID:26923067

  3. Trihalomethanes in drinking water and cancer: risk assessment and integrated evaluation of available data, in animals and humans.

    PubMed

    Attias, L; Contu, A; Loizzo, A; Massiglia, M; Valente, P; Zapponi, G A

    1995-10-27

    In our study, we attempted to jointly consider THM concentration data collected from drinking waters and carcinogenic risk assessment derived from mathematical models commonly used in this field (multi-stage models for laboratory animal experimentation data, and 'unit risk' derived from the relative risk in the case of epidemiological data). In order to estimate the risks related to joint exposure to different THMs, in this study the risk additivity hypothesis is taken into account. Based on animal data for the various tumors, carcinogenic risk estimates for different THM combinations vary from 2.7 x 10(-7) to 4.6 x 10(-6) per micrograms/l in relation to different carcinogenic substances published in the literature or specifically calculated in this study. The carcinogenic risk parameters derived from experimental studies and from epidemiological data were substantially consistent. Our study uses also as an example some data on concentration levels of THMs for drinking water supplies in Sardinia. The area mean THM concentration values for each supply varied, for ground waters, from 8.1 to 13.6 micrograms/l and, for surface waters, from 52.8 to 168 micrograms/l. For the 1976-1989 period, bladder cancer standardized mortality rates in the water distribution system areas where the THMs were measured indicate values similar, but generally lower, than the national ones, except in the province of Cagliari where the values were not significantly different. The risk estimates derived from animal studies are of the same order of magnitude as the epidemiological data in literature.

  4. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  5. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  6. FRAPCON-3: Integral assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Lanning, D.D.; Berna, G.A.; Berna, G.A.

    1997-12-01

    An integral assessment has been performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to quantify the predictive capabilities of FRAPCON-3, a steady-state fuel behavior code designed to analyze fuel behavior from beginning-of-life to burnup levels of 65 GWd/MTU. FRAPCON-3 code calculations are shown to compare satisfactorily to a pre-selected set of experimental data with steady-state operating conditions. 30 refs., 27 figs., 18 tabs.

  7. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  8. A multi-dimensional integrated approach to assess flood risks on a coastal city, induced by sea-level rise and storm tides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lilai, Xu; Yuanrong, He; Wei, Huang; shenghui, Cui

    2016-01-01

    Coastal cities are vulnerable to increasing flood risks caused by the combination of sea-level rise (SLR) and storm tides (STs), due to their low-lying topography and densely distributed assets. Faced with this challenge, comprehensive and integrated flood risk information is vital and fundamental for the planning, implementation and optimization of coastal risk adaptation and management. The goal of this study is to propose an integrated assessment approach to sea-level rise- and storm tide-induced flood risks on a coastal urban system by employing a wide range of indicators across ecological, physical and socio-economic dimensions. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. The results show that this approach is applicable for assessing the specific flood risks on urban ecological, physical and socio-economic system, respectively. Under 4.75 ∼ 5.86 m extreme sea-level, 11 600 ∼ 17 100 ha land and 440 000 ∼ 720 000 population will be flooded in Xiamen City, with flood risks—measured by monetary—of 858 ∼ 1134 million, 4744 ∼ 10 590 million and 2537 ∼ 4175 million RMB of ecological, physical and economic systems, respectively. Coastal ecosystem will suffer flood risks on ecological services, mainly regulation service; and wetland is the dominant ecosystem that will be affected, which imply urgent needs to wetland conservation. Indirect risk on economy accounts for a large proportion of total risks, and should be given adequate weight in the decision-making process.

  9. Falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gallacher, Rose

    2017-02-22

    What was the nature of the CPD activity, practice-related feedback and/or event and/or experience in your practice? The CPD article outlined the causes and consequences of falls for older patients. It discussed the falls risk assessment tools, and falls prevention measures.

  10. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  11. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  12. Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) - TRIM.Risk

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    TRIM.Riskis used to integrate the information on exposure received from TRIM.FaTE or TRIM.Expo with that on dose-response or hazard assessment and to provide quantitative descriptions of risk or hazard and some of the attendant uncertainties.

  13. Integration of environmental and human health risk assessment for industries using hazardous materials: a quantitative multi criteria approach for environmental decision makers.

    PubMed

    Topuz, E; Talinli, I; Aydin, E

    2011-02-01

    Environmental management, for which environmental and human health risk assessment is the first stage, is a requirement for industries both before construction and during operation in order to sustain improved quality of life in the ecosystem. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an approach that integrates environmental and human health risk assessment for industries using hazardous materials in order to support environmental decision makers with quantitative and directive results. Analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic are used as tools to handle problems caused by complexity of environment and uncertain data. When the proposed approach is implemented to a scenario, it was concluded that it is possible to define risk sources with their risk classes and related membership degrees in that classes which enable the decision maker to decide which risk source has priority. In addition, they can easily point out and rank the factors contributing those risk sources owing to priority weights of them. As a result, environmental decision makers can use this approach while they are developing management alternatives for unfounded and on-going industrial plants using hazardous materials.

  14. Nanotechnologies: Risk assessment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giacobbe, F.; Monica, L.; Geraci, D.

    2009-05-01

    The development and use of nanomaterials has grown widely in the last years. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a careful and aimed risk assessment for the safety of the workers. The objective of this research is a specific assessment model finalized to the workplaces where the personnel work manipulating nanoparticles. This model mainly takes into account the number of exposed workers, the dimensions of particles, the information found in the safety data sheets and the uncertainties about the danger level coming from the exposition to nanomaterials. The evaluation algorithm considers the normal work conditions, the abnormal (e.g. breakdown air filter) and emergency situations (e.g. package cracking). It has been necessary to define several risk conditions in order to quantify the risk by increasing levels ("low", "middle" and "high" level). Each level includes appropriate behavioural procedures. In particular for the high level, it is advisable that the user carries out urgent interventions finalized to reduce the risk level (e.g. the utilization of vacuum box for the manipulation, high efficiency protection PPE, etc). The model has been implemented in a research laboratory where titanium dioxide and carbon nanotubes are used. The outcomes taken out from such specific evaluation gave a risk level equal to middle.

  15. Integrated Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2012-10-31

    This paper discusses the role of Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) in climate change research. IAMs are an interdisciplinary research platform, which constitutes a consistent scientific framework in which the large-scale interactions between human and natural Earth systems can be examined. In so doing, IAMs provide insights that would otherwise be unavailable from traditional single-discipline research. By providing a broader view of the issue, IAMs constitute an important tool for decision support. IAMs are also a home of human Earth system research and provide natural Earth system scientists information about the nature of human intervention in global biogeophysical and geochemical processes.

  16. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  17. Integrative analysis and discoveries of Yellowstone science revealing new interpretations and assessments of earthquake and volcano risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, R. B.; Farrell, J.; Massin, F.; Puskas, C. M.; Chang, W.; Shelly, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    post-earthquake seismic stress contagion that will persist for tens to hundreds of years after the triggering event. In contrast, caldera seismicity reflects regional NE-SW extension of up to 5 mm/yr, one-fourth of the total extension of the entire Basin Range, with superposed localized and episodic stresses associated with magmatic/hydrothermal injection, migration, deflation, processes; 5) the largest Yellowstone earthquake swarms are shown to initiate coincident with caldera deformation reversal from uplift to subsidence based on GPS measurements, reflecting the lateral release of magmatic fluids migrating out of the magma reservoir. We hypothesize this process is a 'pressure relief valve' maintaining an equilibrium flux of magmatic fluids into and out of the crustal magma reservoir where every 20,000 years or so it erupts into rhyolite/basalt flows and every ~700,000 years leads into a supervolcano eruption; and 6) Our new hazard assessment of Yellowstone shows that the biggest geologic hazard and risk is from large earthquakes, not from volcanic eruptions, contrary to what has been commonly thought and communicated to the public.

  18. Ecological risk assessment of herbicides in Japan: Integrating spatiotemporal variation in exposure and effects using a multimedia model and algal density dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Takehiko I; Imaizumi, Yoshitaka; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Tatarazako, Norihisa; Suzuki, Noriyuki

    2016-01-01

    Application of herbicides to paddy fields in Japan has strong seasonality, and their environmental concentrations exhibit clear spatiotemporal variation. The authors developed an approach that combines a multimedia environmental exposure model (Grid-Catchment Integrated Modeling System) and density dynamics models for algae. This approach enabled assessment of ecological risk when the exposure concentration shows spatiotemporal variation. First, risk maps of 5 herbicides (pretilachlor, butachlor, simetryn, mefenacet, and esprocarb) were created from the spatial predictions of environmental concentrations and 50% inhibitory concentrations of the herbicides. Simulations of algal density dynamics at high-risk sites were then conducted by incorporating the predicted temporal dynamics of the environmental concentration of each herbicide at the sites. The results suggested that the risk of pretilachlor was clearly the highest of the 5 herbicides, in terms of both the spatial distributions and the temporal durations. The present study highlights the importance of integrating exposure models and effect models to clarify spatial and temporal risk and to develop management plans for chemical exposure that shows high spatiotemporal variation.

  19. An integrated approach for prioritizing pharmaceuticals found in the environment for risk assessment, monitoring and advanced research.

    PubMed

    Caldwell, Daniel J; Mastrocco, Frank; Margiotta-Casaluci, Luigi; Brooks, Bryan W

    2014-11-01

    Numerous active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), approved prior to enactment of detailed environmental risk assessment (ERA) guidance in the EU in 2006, have been detected in surface waters as a result of advancements in analytical technologies. Without adequate knowledge of the potential hazards these APIs may pose, assessing their environmental risk is challenging. As it would be impractical to commence hazard characterization and ERA en masse, several approaches to prioritizing substances for further attention have been published. Here, through the combination of three presentations given at a recent conference, "Pharmaceuticals in the Environment, Is there a problem?" (Nîmes, France, June 2013) we review several of these approaches, identify salient components, and present available techniques and tools that could facilitate a pragmatic, scientifically sound approach to prioritizing APIs for advanced study or ERA and, where warranted, fill critical data gaps through targeted, intelligent testing. We further present a modest proposal to facilitate future prioritization efforts and advanced research studies that incorporates mammalian pharmacology data (e.g., adverse outcomes pathways and the fish plasma model) and modeled exposure data based on pharmaceutical use.

  20. An integrated environmental risk assessment and management framework for enhancing the sustainability of marine protected areas: the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve case study in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Xu, Elvis G B; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Morton, Brian; Lee, Joseph H W

    2015-02-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as marine parks and reserves, contain natural resources of immense value to the environment and mankind. Since MPAs may be situated in close proximity to urbanized areas and influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. continuous discharges of contaminated waters), the marine organisms contained in such waters are probably at risk. This study aimed at developing an integrated environmental risk assessment and management (IERAM) framework for enhancing the sustainability of such MPAs. The IERAM framework integrates conventional environmental risk assessment methods with a multi-layer-DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) conceptual approach, which can simplify the complex issues embraced by environmental management strategies and provide logical and concise management information. The IERAM process can generate a useful database, offer timely update on the status of MPAs, and assist in the prioritization of management options. We use the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve in Hong Kong as an example to illustrate the IERAM framework. A comprehensive set of indicators were selected, aggregated and analyzed using this framework. Effects of management practices and programs were also assessed by comparing the temporal distributions of these indicators over a certain timeframe. Based on the obtained results, we have identified the most significant components for safeguarding the integrity of the marine reserve, and indicated the existing information gaps concerned with the management of the reserve. Apart from assessing the MPA's present condition, a successful implementation of the IERAM framework as evocated here would also facilitate better-informed decision-making and, hence, indirectly enhance the protection and conservation of the MPA's marine biodiversity.

  1. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  2. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  3. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  4. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  5. Health Risk Assessment for Uranium in Groundwater - An Integrated Case Study Based on Hydrogeological Characterization and Dose Calculation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franklin, M. R.; Veiga, L. H.; Py, D. A., Jr.; Fernandes, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    The uranium mining and milling facilities of Caetité (URA) is the only active uranium production center in Brazil. Operations take place at a very sensitive semi-arid region in the country where water resources are very scarce. Therefore, any contamination of the existing water bodies may trigger critical consequences to local communities because their sustainability is closely related to the availability of the groundwater resources. Due to the existence of several uranium anomalies in the region, groundwater can present radionuclide concentrations above the world average. The radiological risk associated to the ingestion of these waters have been questioned by members of the local communities, NGO’s and even regulatory bodies that suspected that the observed levels of radionuclide concentrations (specially Unat) could be related to the uranium mining and milling operations. Regardless the origin of these concentrations the fear that undesired health effects were taking place (e.g. increase in cancer incidence) remain despite the fact that no evidence - based on epidemiological studies - is available. This paper intends to present the connections between the local hydrogeology and the radiological characterization of groundwater in the neighboring areas of the uranium production center to understand the implications to the human health risk due to the ingestion of groundwater. The risk assessment was performed, taking into account the radiological and the toxicological risks. Samples from 12 wells have been collected and determinations of Unat, Thnat, 226Ra, 228Ra and 210Pb were performed. The radiation-related risks were estimated for adults and children by the calculation of the annual effective doses. The potential non-carcinogenic effects due to the ingestion of uranium were evaluated by the estimation of the hazard index (HI). Monte Carlo simulations were used to calculate the uncertainty associated with these estimates, i.e. the 95% confidence interval

  6. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  7. Risk assessment for safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadlock, Charles R.; Glaser, Peter E.

    The application of probabilistic risk-assessment techniques to space missions is discussed, with a focus on the International Space Station. The types of hazards likely to be caused by random events; design, operational, and management errors; and intentional intervention are examined along with their secondary effects; and the top-level safety requirements defined by NASA are considered. It is suggested that such qualitative stipulations be supplemented with more quantitative measures such as used in the nuclear-power industry; the major features of such quantitative methods are reviewed.

  8. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  9. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    PubMed

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  10. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment.

  11. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  12. Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

    2013-04-01

    In 2012, an integrated damage from floods in Russia was about 1 billion euros, floods have caused the death of over 200 people. It is one of the most pressing scientific topics, but most of the works devoted to natural risks assessment. The main purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of dangerous hydrological phenomena (e.g. floods, underflooding and surges) on society, using vulnerability and damage assessment techniques. The objectives are to examine domestic and foreign methodologies, to integrate them and to test on specific Russian territory. Foreign training was organized at UNU-EHS (Bonn, Germany). Three different methods were used for each stage of research. The first part of the research was devoted to estimation of potential damage for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones. The authors used a model, which takes into account direct damage (loss of life, destruction of buildings, etc.) as well as indirect effects of the first, second, etc. orders (loss of profits, loss of the budget, etc.). A database, based on satellite images, maps, yearbooks of Russian Statistical Service and reports of entities, has been prepared. The database is a matrix, in which the rows are coastal zones, and the columns are given indicators: number of people in port areas (people), cost of fixed assets (million rubles), investment (million rubles.), revenue / profit (million rubles.), etc. The authors identified zones with different depth of flooding, using satellite images, and calculated the direct and indirect costs, using the methodology of EMERCOM. Maximum direct potential damage for the Baltic coast is about 15,7 billion euros, but indirect damage is more than 25,5 billion euros. The second part of research was devoted to vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region. A database, as a matrix of 252 parameters from 2007 to 2009 for 14 coastal municipalities, was developed. The parameters were divided into several blocks

  13. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  14. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  15. Agricultural Decision-Making In Indonesia With ENSO Variability: Integrating Climate Science, Risk Assessment, And Policy Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battisti, D. S.; Naylor, R. L.; Vimont, D. J.; Falcon, W. P.

    2006-12-01

    We present our current research to show how climate science can be used to inform agricultural decision- making at the policy level. Our project, funded by the Human and Social Dimensions Program at NSF, focuses on Indonesia, where agricultural production is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of precipitation and by year-to-year variations in the annual cycle caused by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, and where the combined forces of ENSO and global warming are likely to have dramatic effects on agricultural production and food security for tens of millions of people. The two main goals of the research are: 1) to project the impacts of global warming on Indonesian agriculture by estimating changes in mean climate and climate variability (i.e., ENSO); and 2) to analyze how these projections (including relevant bands of uncertainty) can be used to inform agricultural decision-making processes. To accomplish the first goal, we developed a set of regional climate scenarios for Indonesia in the mid-21st century. These scenarios are developed using (i) the large-scale climate changes projected from the collection of climate models used in the IPCC process, (ii) select experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, and (iii) a newly developed downscaling model that links the large-scale circulation to the regional scale climate. These scenarios are then used to assess the influence of global warming on the annual climate cycle and on ENSO-induced changes in precipitation and agricultural production in Indonesia. (The link between projected crop production and climate is established from our previous work). The second goal is accomplished by developing a risk assessment framework that links the probabilities of climate change to its potential consequences on agriculture, taking into account various adaptation measures, such as the development of drought tolerant crop varieties and irrigation investment. The model template we have designed and

  16. DSSTox EPA Integrated Risk Information System Structure ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database was developed and is maintained by EPA's Office of Research and Developement, National Center for Environmental Assessment. IRIS is a database of human health effects that may result from exposure to various substances found in the environment. The information in IRIS is intended for those without extensive training in toxicology, but with some knowledge of sciences. IRIS chemical files contain descriptive and quantitative information in oral reference doses and inhalation reference concentrations and hazard identification, oral slope factors, and oral and inhalation unit risks for carcinogenic effects.

  17. Integrating toxicogenomics into human health risk assessment: lessons learned from the benzo[a]pyrene case study.

    PubMed

    Chepelev, Nikolai L; Moffat, Ivy D; Labib, Sarah; Bourdon-Lacombe, Julie; Kuo, Byron; Buick, Julie K; Lemieux, France; Malik, Amal I; Halappanavar, Sabina; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L

    2015-01-01

    The use of short-term toxicogenomic tests to predict cancer (or other health effects) offers considerable advantages relative to traditional toxicity testing methods. The advantages include increased throughput, increased mechanistic data, and significantly reduced costs. However, precisely how toxicogenomics data can be used to support human health risk assessment (RA) is unclear. In a companion paper ( Moffat et al. 2014 ), we present a case study evaluating the utility of toxicogenomics in the RA of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), a known human carcinogen. The case study is meant as a proof-of-principle exercise using a well-established mode of action (MOA) that impacts multiple tissues, which should provide a best case example. We found that toxicogenomics provided rich mechanistic data applicable to hazard identification, dose-response analysis, and quantitative RA of BaP. Based on this work, here we share some useful lessons for both research and RA, and outline our perspective on how toxicogenomics can benefit RA in the short- and long-term. Specifically, we focus on (1) obtaining biologically relevant data that are readily suitable for establishing an MOA for toxicants, (2) examining the human relevance of an MOA from animal testing, and (3) proposing appropriate quantitative values for RA. We describe our envisioned strategy on how toxicogenomics can become a tool in RA, especially when anchored to other short-term toxicity tests (apical endpoints) to increase confidence in the proposed MOA, and emphasize the need for additional studies on other MOAs to define the best practices in the application of toxicogenomics in RA.

  18. Integrating health on air quality assessment--review report on health risks of two major European outdoor air pollutants: PM and NO₂.

    PubMed

    Costa, Solange; Ferreira, Joana; Silveira, Carlos; Costa, Carla; Lopes, Diogo; Relvas, Hélder; Borrego, Carlos; Roebeling, Peter; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Teixeira, João Paulo

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the impact of air pollution on the public's health has become an increasingly critical component in policy discussion. Recent data indicate that more than 70% of the world population lives in cities. Several studies reported that current levels of air pollutants in urban areas are associated with adverse health risks, namely, cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. IARC recently classified outdoor air pollution and related particulate matter (PM) as carcinogenic to humans. Despite the air quality improvements observed over the last few years, there is still continued widespread exceedance within Europe, particularly regarding PM and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The European Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC requires Member States to design appropriate air quality plans for zones where air quality does not comply with established limit values. However, in most cases, air quality is only quantified using a combination of monitored and modeled data and no health impact assessment is carried out. An integrated approach combining the effects of several emission abatement measures on air quality, impacts on human health, and associated implementation costs enables an effective cost-benefit analysis and an added value to the decision-making process. Hence, this review describes the basic steps and tools for integrating health into air quality assessment (health indicators, exposure-response functions). In addition, consideration is given to two major outdoor pollutants: PM and NO2. A summary of the health metrics used to assess the health impact of PM and NO2 and recent epidemiologic data are also described.

  19. Risk assessment strategies for Europe: integrated safety strategy or final product control: Example of Listeria monocytogenes in processed products from pork meat industry.

    PubMed

    Salvat, G; Fravalo, P

    2004-08-01

    The European regulation 2160/2003 of November 17th, 2003 clearly shows the European strategy of zoonosis monitoring and control as an integrated approach, including the entire food production chain with a first application to Salmonella control in different animal species. This regulation is the consequence of a risk assessment performed with a "farm to fork" philosophy. European strategy is scarcely different from the American strategy, despite the fact that both were achieved by a quantitative risk assessment, as for instance, in the USA the control of Salmonella in eggs is supposed to be completed by refrigeration. Nevertheless, the EU will still have a final product control approach towards future regulations on microbiological criteria for foodstuffs. The final production monitoring and control with HACCP (93/43/EC) and microbiological criteria is the only one available for L. monocytogenes in foodstuffs. The purpose of this paper is to discuss alternative control strategies for L. monocytogenes in pig production including integrated risk assessment. In France, most of the food-borne outbreaks associated with L. monocytogenes in delicatessen were due to one particular group of strains belonging to serovar 4b and presenting a particular RFLP/PFGE (Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism/Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis) profile. The outbreak itself is always associated with the initial contamination of a RTE ("ready to eat") product and re-contamination by inappropriate handling after cooking. Consequently, in most cases the RTE product is subject to inadequate refrigeration during an excessive shelf-life. The responsibility of the food industry and the consumer is clearly engaged during this scenario of foodborne diseases. The question is how to avoid the introduction of this particular strain of L. monocytogenes in the food chain. In a study we tried to evaluate the risk of pig carcass contamination at slaughterhouse level and to identify the main risk

  20. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  1. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area.

  2. Integrating a flexible modeling framework (FMF) with the network security assessment instrument to reduce software security risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, D. P.; Powell, J. D.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a portion of an overall research project on the generation of the network security assessment instrument to aid developers in assessing and assuring the security of software in the development and maintenance lifecycles.

  3. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  5. Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baert, K.; Francois, K.; de Meulenaer, B.; Devlieghere, F.

    A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999).

  6. Recovery actions in PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) for the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP): Volume 1, Development of the data-based method

    SciTech Connect

    Weston, L M; Whitehead, D W; Graves, N L

    1987-06-01

    In a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for a nuclear power plant, the analyst identifies a set of potential core damage events consisting of equipment failures and human errors and their estimated probabilities of occurrence. If operator recovery from an event within some specified time is considered, then the probability of this recovery can be included in the PRA. This report provides PRA analysts with an improved methodology for including recovery actions in a PRA. A recovery action can be divided into two distinct phases: a Diagnosis Phase (realizing that there is a problem with a critical parameter and deciding upon the correct course of action) and an Action Phase (physically accomplishing the required action). In this methodology, simulator data are used to estimate recovery probabilities for the diagnosis phase. Different time-reliability curves showing the probability of failure of diagnosis as a function of time from the compelling cue for the event are presented. These curves are based on simulator exercises, and the actions are grouped based upon their operational similarities. This is an improvement over existing diagnosis models that rely greatly upon subjective judgment to obtain such estimates. The action phase is modeled using estimates from available sources. The methodology also includes a recommendation on where and when to apply the recovery action in the PRA process.

  7. Key Challenges and Opportunities Associated with the Use of In Vitro Models to Detect Human DILI: Integrated Risk Assessment and Mitigation Plans

    PubMed Central

    Blomme, Eric A.; Hewitt, Philip; Kenna, J. Gerry; Labbe, Gilles; Moulin, Frederic; Pognan, Francois; Roth, Adrian B.; Suter-Dick, Laura; Ukairo, Okechukwu; Weaver, Richard J.; Will, Yvonne; Dambach, Donna M.

    2016-01-01

    Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a major cause of late-stage clinical drug attrition, market withdrawal, black-box warnings, and acute liver failure. Consequently, it has been an area of focus for toxicologists and clinicians for several decades. In spite of considerable efforts, limited improvements in DILI prediction have been made and efforts to improve existing preclinical models or develop new test systems remain a high priority. While prediction of intrinsic DILI has improved, identifying compounds with a risk for idiosyncratic DILI (iDILI) remains extremely challenging because of the lack of a clear mechanistic understanding and the multifactorial pathogenesis of idiosyncratic drug reactions. Well-defined clinical diagnostic criteria and risk factors are also missing. This paper summarizes key data interpretation challenges, practical considerations, model limitations, and the need for an integrated risk assessment. As demonstrated through selected initiatives to address other types of toxicities, opportunities exist however for improvement, especially through better concerted efforts at harmonization of current, emerging and novel in vitro systems or through the establishment of strategies for implementation of preclinical DILI models across the pharmaceutical industry. Perspectives on the incorporation of newer technologies and the value of precompetitive consortia to identify useful practices are also discussed. PMID:27689095

  8. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T; Rasmuson, D M

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  9. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  10. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  11. Integration of bioavailability, ecology and ecotoxicology by three lines of evidence into ecological risk indexes for contaminated soil assessment.

    PubMed

    Semenzin, Elena; Critto, Andrea; Rutgers, Michiel; Marcomini, Antonio

    2008-01-15

    A Weight of Evidence approach was applied to define three integrated effect indexes estimating the impairment on terrestrial ecosystems caused by the stressor(s) of concern. According to a Triad approach, the integrated effect indexes combined the information provided by the measurement endpoints of each line of evidence (chemistry/bioavailability, ecology and ecotoxicology) and allowed to analyse the impairment degree highlighted by each measurement endpoint as difference from the reference condition. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was used for the aggregation of the complementary Triad information, including expert judgement and a weighted procedure based on the endpoint sensitivity and the sensitivity of the test for ecosystem effects. The developed methodology was implemented in the DSS-ERAMANIA, Module 2, and is presented in this paper as "Integrated Effect Indexes" (IEI) sub-module. The latter has been preliminary applied to the Acna di Cengio (Italy) contaminated site; the results of this application are presented and discussed.

  12. MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  13. SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SLIDE PRESENTATION)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  14. MEETING IN CZECH REPUBLIC: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  15. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  16. Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora) in Ethiopia’s Afar region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luizza, Matthew; Wakie, Tewodros; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine) in Ethiopia’s Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80) and the final model (test AUC = 0.96). Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local ecological

  17. Integrating social capacity into risk reduction strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneiderbauer, S.; Pedoth, L.; Zebisch, M.

    2012-04-01

    The reduction of risk to impacts from external stresses and shocks is an important task in communities worldwide at all government levels and independent of the development status. The importance of building social capacity as part of risk reduction strategies is increasingly recognized. However, there is space for improvement to incorporate related activities into a holistic risk governance approach. Starting point for such enhancements is to promote and improve assessments of what is called 'sensitivity' or 'adaptive capacity' in the climate change community and what is named 'vulnerability' or 'resilience' in the hazard risk community. Challenging issues that need to be tackled in this context are the integration of concepts and method as well as the fusion of data. Against this background we introduce a method to assess regional adaptive capacity to climate change focusing on mountain areas accounting for sector specific problems. By considering three levels of specificity as base for the selection of most appropriate indicators the study results have the potential to support decision making regarding most appropriate adaptation actions. Advantages and shortcomings of certain aspects of adaptive capacity assessment in general and of the proposed method in particular are presented.

  18. Ozone (O3) Standards - Integrated Science Assessments from Current Review

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The integrated science assessment (ISA) is a comprehensive review, synthesis, and evaluation of the most policy-relevant science, including key science judgments that are important to inform the development of the risk and exposure assessments, and more.

  19. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  20. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  1. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  2. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  3. Assessing integrity of insect RNA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing total RNA integrity is important for the success of downstream RNA applications. The 2100 Bioanalyzer system with the RNA Integrity Number (RIN) provides a quantitative measure of RNA degradation. Although RINs may not be ascertained for RNA from all organisms, namely those with unusual or...

  4. 49 CFR 192.937 - What is a continual process of evaluation and assessment to maintain a pipeline's integrity?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... integrity assessment results, data integration and risk assessment information (§ 192.917), and decisions... on a data integration and risk assessment of the entire pipeline as specified in § 192.917....

  5. Assessing Risk in Graphically Presented Financial Series.

    PubMed

    Sobolev, Daphne; Harvey, Nigel

    2016-12-01

    It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series. Graphs with lower Hurst exponents were selected only by those who were less emotionally stable and hence more sensitive to risk. However, when both price series and price change series were presented, the assets with lower Hurst exponents were selected by all participants. In a second experiment, participants were given both price level and price change series for a number of assets and rated the risk of trading in each one. Ratings depended more strongly on Hurst exponents than on other measures of volatility. They also depended on indicators of potential loss. Human risk assessment deviates from the way that risk is measured in modern finance theory: it requires integration of information relevant to both uncertainty and loss aversion, thereby imposing high attentional demands on traders. These demands may impair risk assessment but they can be eased by adding displays of price change information.

  6. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  7. Integrating multiple fish biomarkers and risk assessment as indicators of metal pollution along the Red Sea coast of Hodeida, Yemen Republic.

    PubMed

    Omar, Wael A; Saleh, Yousef S; Marie, Mohamed-Assem S

    2014-12-01

    The marine environment of the Red Sea coast of Yemen Republic is subjected to increasing anthropogenic activities. The present field study assesses the impacts of metal pollutants on two common marine fish species; Pomadasys hasta and Lutjanus russellii collected from a reference site in comparison to two polluted sites along the Red Sea coast of Hodeida, Yemen Republic. Concentrations of heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb) in fish vital organs, metal pollution index (MPI), indicative biochemical parameters of liver functions (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] and aspartate aminotransferase [AST]) and kidney functions (urea and creatinine) as well as histopathological changes in gills, liver and kidney of both fish species are integrated as biomarkers of metal pollution. These biomarkers showed species-specific and/or site-specific response. The hazard index (HI) was used as an indicator of human health risks associated with fish consumption. The detected low HI values in most cases doesn't neglect the fact that the cumulative risk effects for metals together give an alarming sign and that the health of fish consumers is endangered around polluted sites. The levels of ALT, AST and urea in plasma of both fish species collected from the polluted sites showed significant increase in comparison to those of reference site. Histopathological alterations and evident damage were observed in tissues of fish collected from the polluted sites. The investigated set of biomarkers proved to be efficient and reliable in biomonitoring the pollution status along different pollution gradients.

  8. Integrated risk assessment for WFD ecological status classification applied to Llobregat river basin (Spain). Part I-Fuzzy approach to aggregate biological indicators.

    PubMed

    Gottardo, S; Semenzin, E; Giove, S; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; de Zwart, D; Ginebreda, A; Marcomini, A

    2011-10-15

    Water Framework Directive (WFD) requirements and recommendations for Ecological Status (ES) classification of surface water bodies do not address all issues that Member States have to face in the implementation process, such as selection of appropriate stressor-specific environmental indicators, definition of class boundaries, aggregation of heterogeneous data and information and uncertainty evaluation. In this context the "One-Out, All-Out" (OOAO) principle is the suggested approach to lead the entire classification procedure and ensure conservative results. In order to support water managers in achieving a more comprehensive and realistic evaluation of ES, an Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) methodology was developed. It is based on the Weight of Evidence approach and implements a Fuzzy Inference System in order to hierarchically aggregate a set of environmental indicators, which are grouped into five Lines of Evidence (i.e. Biology, Chemistry, Ecotoxicology, Physico-chemistry and Hydromorphology). The whole IRA methodology has been implemented as an individual module into a freeware GIS (Geographic Information System)-based Decision Support System (DSS), named MODELKEY DSS. The paper focuses on the conceptual and mathematical procedure underlying the evaluation of the most complex Line of Evidence, i.e. Biology, which identifies the biological communities that are potentially at risk and the stressors that are most likely responsible for the observed alterations. The results obtained from testing the procedure through application of the MODELKEY DSS to the Llobregat case study are reported and discussed.

  9. Reducing the Risk of Human Space Missions with INTEGRITY

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merill, Robin L.; Tri, Terry O.; Henninger, Donald L.

    2003-01-01

    The INTEGRITY Program will design and operate a test bed facility to help prepare for future beyond-LEO missions. The purpose of INTEGRITY is to enable future missions by developing, testing, and demonstrating advanced human space systems. INTEGRITY will also implement and validate advanced management techniques including risk analysis and mitigation. One important way INTEGRITY will help enable future missions is by reducing their risk. A risk analysis of human space missions is important in defining the steps that INTEGRITY should take to mitigate risk. This paper describes how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of human space missions will help support the planning and development of INTEGRITY to maximize its benefits to future missions. PRA is a systematic methodology to decompose the system into subsystems and components, to quantify the failure risk as a function of the design elements and their corresponding probability of failure. PRA provides a quantitative estimate of the probability of failure of the system, including an assessment and display of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the probability. PRA provides a basis for understanding the impacts of decisions that affect safety, reliability, performance, and cost. Risks with both high probability and high impact are identified as top priority. The PRA of human missions beyond Earth orbit will help indicate how the risk of future human space missions can be reduced by integrating and testing systems in INTEGRITY.

  10. Integrating process safety with molecular modeling-based risk assessment of chemicals within the REACH regulatory framework: benefits and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Amanda; Kazantzis, Nikolaos; Fishtik, Ilie; Wilcox, Jennifer

    2007-04-11

    Registration, evaluation and authorization of chemicals (REACH) represents a recent regulatory initiative by the European union commission to protect human health and the environment from potentially hazardous chemicals. Under REACH, all stakeholders must submit (thermo)physical, thermochemical, and toxicological data for certain chemicals. The commission's impact assessment studies estimate that the costs of REACH will be approximately 3-5 billion Euros. The present study advocates the systematic incorporation of computational chemistry and computer-assisted chemical risk assessment methods into REACH to reduce regulatory compliance costs. Currently powerful computer-aided ab initio techniques can be used to generate predictions of key properties of broad classes of chemicals, without resorting to costly experimentation and potentially hazardous testing. These data could be integrated into a centralized IT decision and compliance support system, and stored in a retrievable, easily communicable manner should new regulatory and/or production requirements necessitate the introduction of different uses of chemicals under different conditions. For illustration purposes, ab initio calculations are performed on heterocyclic nitrogen-containing compounds which currently serve as high energy density materials in the chemical industry. Since investigations of these compounds are still in their infancy, stability studies are imperative regarding their safe handling and storage, as well as registration under REACH.

  11. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  12. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  13. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  15. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  16. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  17. Short-term emergency response planning and risk assessment via an integrated modeling system for nuclear power plants in complex terrain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Weng, Yu-Chi

    2013-03-01

    Short-term predictions of potential impacts from accidental release of various radionuclides at nuclear power plants are acutely needed, especially after the Fukushima accident in Japan. An integrated modeling system that provides expert services to assess the consequences of accidental or intentional releases of radioactive materials to the atmosphere has received wide attention. These scenarios can be initiated either by accident due to human, software, or mechanical failures, or from intentional acts such as sabotage and radiological dispersal devices. Stringent action might be required just minutes after the occurrence of accidental or intentional release. To fulfill the basic functions of emergency preparedness and response systems, previous studies seldom consider the suitability of air pollutant dispersion models or the connectivity between source term, dispersion, and exposure assessment models in a holistic context for decision support. Therefore, the Gaussian plume and puff models, which are only suitable for illustrating neutral air pollutants in flat terrain conditional to limited meteorological situations, are frequently used to predict the impact from accidental release of industrial sources. In situations with complex terrain or special meteorological conditions, the proposing emergency response actions might be questionable and even intractable to decisionmakers responsible for maintaining public health and environmental quality. This study is a preliminary effort to integrate the source term, dispersion, and exposure assessment models into a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) to tackle the complex issues for short-term emergency response planning and risk assessment at nuclear power plants. Through a series model screening procedures, we found that the diagnostic (objective) wind field model with the aid of sufficient on-site meteorological monitoring data was the most applicable model to promptly address the trend of local wind field patterns

  18. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  19. Integration of chemical-specific exposure and pharmacokinetic information with the chemical-agnostic AOP framework to support high throughput risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Application of the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework and high throughput toxicity testing in chemical-specific risk assessment requires reconciliation of chemical concentrations sufficient to trigger a molecular initiating event measured in vitro and at the relevant target ...

  20. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  1. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: HALOGENATED SOLVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Halogenated Solvent Degreasing Facilities. These assessments utilize existing models and d...

  2. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

  3. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  4. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  5. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  6. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  7. Groundwater abstraction pollution risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lytton, L; Howe, S; Sage, R; Greenaway, P

    2003-01-01

    A generic groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology has been developed to enable the evaluation and ranking of the potential risk of pollution to groundwater abstractions. The ranking can then be used to prioritise risk management or mitigation procedures in a robust and quantifiable framework and thus inform business investment decisions. The risk assessment consider the three components of the pollution transport model: source-pathway-receptor. For groundwater abstractions these correspond to land use (with associated pollutants and shallow subsurface characteristics), aquifer and the abstraction borehole. An hierarchical approach was chosen to allow the risk assessment to be successfully carried out with different quality data for different parts of the model. The 400-day groundwater protection zone defines the catchment boundary that form the spatial limit of the land use audit for each receptor. A risk score is obtained for each land use (potential pollution source) within the catchment. These scores are derived by considering the characteristics (such as load, persistence and toxicity) of all pollutants pertaining to each land use, their on-site management and the potential for the unsaturated subsurface to attenuate their effects in the event of a release. Risk scores are also applied to the aquifer characteristics (as pollutant pathway) and to the abstraction borehole (as pollutant receptor). Each risk score is accompanied by an uncertainty score which provides a guide to the confidence in the data used to compile the risk assessment. The application of the methodology has highlighted a number of problems in this type of work and results of initial case studies are being used to trial alternative scoring methods and a more simplified approach to accelerate the process of pollution risk assessment.

  8. A new approach of Integrated Health Responses (IHR(s)) modeling for ecological risk/health assessments of an urban stream.

    PubMed

    Kim, Ja-Hyun; Yeom, Dong-Hyuk; An, Kwang-Guk

    2014-08-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the ecological health of an urban stream using Integrated Health Responses (IHRs). Water chemistry analysis, habitat health, and ecotoxicity tests were conducted in the stream along with analyses of molecular/biochemical, physiological biomarkers, and population-level responses in indicator species. Chemical stresses, measured as nutrient levels, ionic content and organic matter concentrations were significantly greater (p<0.01) at the downstream than the reference site (RF). The habitat health was largely impacted in the downstream reaches and had a negative relation with the land-use pattern of % urban area. Comet assay, 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD), acetylcholinesterase (AChE), and vitellogenin (VTG) were evaluated for low-level biomarker responses on DNA/physiological conditions of target species. The multi-metric fish model (Mm-F) was used to test the community-level response in relation to chemical and physical habitat stresses. The impaired responses of separate biomarker and bioindicator at the downstream sites occurred at all organizations from molecular/biochemical level to community level. Using all biomarkers/bioindicators, the star-plot model of IHRs was developed and then the integrative health/risk assessments were conducted in the urban stream. The reduced values of IHRs occurred in the downstream sites and the impacts were attributed to effluents from wastewater treatment plants (WTPs) and industrial complex. Ecological health impairments, thus, were evident in the urban reach, and reflected the long-term community responses as well as short-term responses of molecular biomarkers. The degradation of the urban stream was mainly due to a combined effect of chemical pollution and physical habitat modifications.

  9. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  10. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  11. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  12. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  13. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    PubMed

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  14. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  15. Integrated modeling systems to assess exposure and toxicity of chemicals in support of aquatic ecological risk assessment of methodologically challenging chemicals

    EPA Science Inventory

    From an exposure assessment perspective, persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals (PBTs) are some of the most challenging chemicals facing environmental decision makers today. Due to their general physico-chemical properties [e.g., high octanol-water partition coefficien...

  16. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  17. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  18. Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental RiskAssessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

  19. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  1. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  2. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  3. The crysophere as a resource and hazard - Integrated framework for the assessment of future water resource vulnerability and glacial hazard risk assessment in the Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Simon; Awasthi, Kirtiman; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Kahn, Mustafa; Linsbauer, Andreas; Rohrer, Mario; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Salzmann, Nadine; Schauwecker, Simone; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-05-01

    High mountain environments are particularly susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns, owing to the sensitivity of cryospheric components to melting conditions, and the importance of rainfall and river runoff for sustaining crops and livelihoods. The Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (population ca. 6 mil.) is the initial focus of a joint program between the governments of India and Switzerland aiming to build scientific capacity to understand the threat, and plan for adaptation to climate change in the Himalaya. Here we focus on the cryosphere, and provide an overview of the integrated framework we will follow to assess future water resource vulnerability from changes in runoff, and assess future disaster risk from mass movement and flood hazards. At this early stage of our project, we aim to identify key methodological steps, data requirements, and related challenges. The initial implementation of our framework will be centered on the Kullu district. Core and integrative components of both the traditional climate vulnerability framework (eg., IPCC AR4), and the vulnerability and risk concepts of the disaster risk management community (eg., IPCC SREX 2012) include the assessment of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity to water vulnerability in the Kullu district requires the quantification of current and future water resource usage at the block or community level, using metrics such as total irrigated land area, total electricity usage, population density and birth rates. Within the disaster risk framework, sensitivity to mass movement and flood hazards will be determined based on factors such as population density and demographics (notably age and gender), strength of building materials etc. Projected temperature and precipitation data from regional climate model output will be used to model changes in melt water runoff and streamflow, determining the exposure of communities and natural systems to future

  4. Assessment of Sediment Risk in the North End of Tai Lake, China: Integrating Chemical Analysis and Chronic Toxicity Testing with Chironomus dilutus.

    PubMed

    Qi, Hongxue; Ma, Ping; Li, Huizhen; You, Jing

    2015-11-01

    Whole life-cycle bioassays with Chironomus dilutus were performed to evaluate sediment toxicity in Tai Lake, a typical freshwater lake in China. Meanwhile, contaminants of concern were analyzed in sediment. The sediments in Tai Lake showed no acute mortality in 10-day testing to C. dilutus. After chronic exposure to the sediments, however, adverse effects-including decreased survival and sublethal impairments of growth, emergence, and fecundity-were observed at most sites in Tai Lake. A variety of contaminants were detected in sediment with the total concentrations in the range of 504-889 ng/g dry weight (dw) for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 0.56-1.81 ng/g dw for polychlorinated biphenyls, 38.6-87.8 ng/g dw for polybrominated diphenyl ethers, 8.34-14.2 ng/g dw for organochlorine pesticides, 1.27-2.95 ng/g dw for organophosphate pesticides, 0.11-0.21 ng/g dw for pyrethroid pesticides, and 332-609 µg/g dw for metals. Finally, a canonical correlation analysis was applied to link chronic sediment toxicity to the toxic units of individual contaminants. Results suggested that two pesticides (hexachlorocyclohexane and chlorpyrifos) and two metals (chromium and nickel) in sediments from Tai Lake were the potential contributors to the noted toxicity in C. dilutus in the life-cycle toxicity testing. In conclusion, acute bioassays with the benthos were not sensitive enough to assess sediment toxicity in freshwater lakes in China, and it is desirable to integrate chronic toxicity testing with chemical analysis to better understand sediment risk.

  5. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  6. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment—Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Lentz, T. J.; Dotson, G. S.; Williams, P. R.D.; Maier, A.; Gadagbui, B.; Pandalai, S. P.; Lamba, A.; Hearl, F.; Mumtaz, M.

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational. PMID:26583907

  7. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  8. Assessment of Integrated Nozzle Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, H. H.; Mizukami, M.

    1999-01-01

    This presentation highlights the activities that researchers at the NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) have been and will be involved in to assess integrated nozzle performance. Three different test activities are discussed. First, the results of the Propulsion Airframe Integration for High Speed Research 1 (PAIHSR1) study are presented. The PAIHSR1 experiment was conducted in the LeRC 9 ft x l5 ft wind tunnel from December 1991 to January 1992. Second, an overview of the proposed Mixer/ejector Inlet Distortion Study (MIDIS-E) is presented. The objective of MIDIS-E is to assess the effects of applying discrete disturbances to the ejector inlet flow on the acoustic and aero-performance of a mixer/ejector nozzle. Finally, an overview of the High-Lift Engine Aero-acoustic Technology (HEAT) test is presented. The HEAT test is a cooperative effort between the propulsion system and high-lift device research communities to assess wing/nozzle integration effects. The experiment is scheduled for FY94 in the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) 40 ft x 80 ft Low Speed Wind Tunnel (LSWT).

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  10. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  11. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  12. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  13. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  14. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  15. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  16. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  17. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  18. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  19. 49 CFR 192.937 - What is a continual process of evaluation and assessment to maintain a pipeline's integrity?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... completing the baseline integrity assessment of a covered segment, an operator must continue to assess the... on a data integration and risk assessment of the entire pipeline as specified in § 192.917. For... integrity assessment results, data integration and risk assessment information (§ 192.917), and...

  20. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  1. Integration of natural and technological risks in Lombardy, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lari, S.; Frattini, P.; Crosta, G. B.

    2009-12-01

    Multi-risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool for land planning, emergency management and the deployment of mitigation strategies. Multi-risk maps combine all available information about hazard, vulnerability, and exposed values related to different dangerous phenomena, and provide a quantitative support to complex decision making. We analyse and integrate through an indicator-based approach nine major threats affecting the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy, 25 000 km2), namely landslide, avalanche, flood, wildfire, seismic, meteorological, industrial (technological) risks; road accidents, and work injuries. For each threat, we develop a set of indicators that express the physical risk and the coping capacity or system resilience. By combining these indicators through different weighting strategies (i.e. budgetary allocation, and fuzzy logic), we calculate a total risk for each threat. Then, we integrate these risks by applying AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) weighting, and we derive a set of multi-risk maps. Eventually, we identify the dominant risks for each zone, and a number of risk hot-spot areas. The proposed approach can be applied with different degree of detail depending on the quality of the available data. This allows the application of the method even in case of non homogeneous data, which is often the case for regional scale analyses. Moreover, it allows the integration of different risk types or metrics. Relative risk scores are provided from this methodology, not directly accounting for the temporal occurrence probability of the phenomena.

  2. About the Human Health Risk Assessment Research (HHRA) Program

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The HHRA Research Program plays a unique role in serving the needs of the Agency, as well as the broader risk assessment/management community, by identifying, evaluating, synthesizing and integrating scientific information on chemical mixtures.

  3. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  4. Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 2: Integrated loss of vehicle model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    The application of the probabilistic risk assessment methodology to a Space Shuttle environment, particularly to the potential of losing the Shuttle during nominal operation is addressed. The different related concerns are identified and combined to determine overall program risks. A fault tree model is used to allocate system probabilities to the subsystem level. The loss of the vehicle due to failure to contain energetic gas and debris, to maintain proper propulsion and configuration is analyzed, along with the loss due to Orbiter, external tank failure, and landing failure or error.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  7. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  8. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  9. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  10. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  11. Introduction of a conceptual model for integrating the MMPI-2-RF into HCR-20V3 violence risk assessments and associations between the MMPI-2-RF and institutional violence.

    PubMed

    Tarescavage, Anthony M; Glassmire, David M; Burchett, Danielle

    2016-12-01

    Reflecting the need to prevent violence, structured professional judgment assessment tools have been developed specifically to assess the likelihood of future violence. These tools typically integrate data from clinical interviews and collateral records to assist in the conceptualization of violence risk, but objective psychological testing may also be useful in completing the instruments. The authors describe the advantages of using the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) in this manner with the Historical Clinical Management-20 Version 3 (HCR-20(V3)). Accordingly, they have 2 purposes. First, they sought to identify conceptual links between the constructs measured by the tools and introduce a model to integrate MMPI-2-RF findings into an HCR-20(V3) risk assessment. Second, although the authors did not have collateral HCR-20(V3) ratings, they sought to examine associations between the MMPI-2-RF scales and future violence in a sample of 303 psychiatric patients (233 males, 70 females) adjudicated as not guilty by reason of insanity. The authors found that the MMPI-2-RF scales demonstrated significant, meaningful associations with a count of future violent acts at the hospital. The largest associations involved scales measuring emotional dysregulation and externalizing dysfunction. These associations were qualified by relative risk ratio analyses indicating that patients producing elevations on these scales were at 1.5 to 2.5 times greater risk of future violence than those without elevations. Overall, the findings indicated that most MMPI-2-RF scales conceptually linked to the HCR-20(V3) risk factors were associated with future violence. In light of these findings, the authors discuss recommendations for integrating the MMPI-2-RF when interpreting HCR-20(V3) risk factors. (PsycINFO Database Record

  12. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  13. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  14. Assessing the risk of phosphorus transfer to high ecological status rivers: Integration of nutrient management with soil geochemical and hydrological conditions.

    PubMed

    Roberts, William M; Gonzalez-Jimenez, Jose L; Doody, Donnacha G; Jordan, Philip; Daly, Karen

    2017-07-01

    Agriculture has been implicated in the loss of pristine conditions and ecology at river sites classified as at 'high ecological status' across Europe. Although the exact causes remain unclear, diffuse phosphorus (P) transfer warrants consideration because of its wider importance for the ecological quality of rivers. This study assessed the risk of P loss at field scale from farms under contrasting soil conditions within three case-study catchments upstream of near-pristine river sites. Data from 39 farms showed P surpluses were common on extensive farm enterprises despite a lower P requirement and level of intensity. At field scale, data from 520 fields showed that Histic topsoils with elevated organic matter contents had low P reserves due to poor sorption capacities, and received applications of P in excess of recommended rates. On this soil type 67% of fields recorded a field P surplus of between 1 and 31kgha(-1), accounting for 46% of fields surveyed across 10 farms in a pressured high status catchment. A P risk assessment combined nutrient management, soil biogeochemical and hydrological data at field scale, across 3 catchments and the relative risks of P transfer were highest when fertilizer quantities that exceeded current recommendations on soils with a high risk of mobilization and high risk of transport as indicated by topographic wetness index values. This situation occurred on 21% of fields surveyed in the least intensively managed catchment with no on-farm nutrient management planning and soil testing. In contrast, the two intensively managed catchments presented a risk of P transfer in only 3% and 1% of fields surveyed across 29 farms. Future agri-environmental measures should be administered at field scale, not farm scale, and based on soil analysis that is inclusive of OM values on a field-by-field basis.

  15. The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

    2011-08-01

    The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

  16. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  17. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  18. Opioid risk assessment in palliative medicine.

    PubMed

    Dale, Rebecca; Edwards, Jeremy; Ballantyne, Jane

    2016-03-01

    Pain management with opioids is an integral part of palliative medicine. As the doses and durations of opioid therapy increase, the inherent risks of opioid therapy rise. Although opioids are effective analgesics, they bring with them complex medical and psychological side effects. Aberrant behavior is dangerous and can be difficult to identify as it results in a splitting in the goals of treatment between the patient and providers. One effective strategy in preventing that situation is through the early identification of at-risk patients. There are several tools that can help identify patients at higher risk of addiction and aberrant behaviors during opioid therapy. Structured use of these tools in conjunction with the clinic exam, regular follow-up visits, and lab testing can further reduce patient risk and improve success in opioid therapy. This article will review the background behind a structured strategy for opioid risk assessment using the Opioid Risk Tool, SOAPP-R, and DIRE tools. In addition, example aberrant behaviors and follow-up strategies will be reviewed. It will be demonstrated that careful screening and follow-up allow risk factors to be recognized and addressed early.

  19. Applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.J.; Chapman, J.R.; Follen, S.M.; O'Regan, P.J. )

    1991-05-01

    This report provides a summary of potential and actual applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technology and insights. Individual applications are derived from the experiences of a number of US nuclear utilities. This report identifies numerous applications of PRA techniques beyond those typically associated with PRAs. In addition, believing that the future use of PRA techniques should not be limited to those of the past, areas of plant operations, maintenance, and financial resource allocation are discussed. 9 refs., 3 tabs.

  20. 49 CFR 192.937 - What is a continual process of evaluation and assessment to maintain a pipeline's integrity?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... on a data integration and risk assessment of the entire pipeline as specified in § 192.917. For... integrity assessment results, data integration and risk assessment information (§ 192.917), and decisions... the risk represented by these threats. (c) Assessment methods. In conducting the...

  1. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  2. Risk assessment for pulmonary resection.

    PubMed

    Brunelli, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment for pulmonary resection must include a preliminary cardiac evaluation. Patients deemed at prohibitive cardiac risk should be evaluated and treated as per American Heart Association/American Society of Cardiology guidelines. Those with low cardiac risk or with optimized treatment can proceed with pulmonary assessment. A systematic measurement of lung carbon monoxide diffusing capacity is recommended. In addition, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second should not be used alone for patient selection because it is not an accurate predictor of complications, particularly in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The use of exercise testing should be emphasized. Low-technology tests, such as stair climbing, can be used whenever a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test is not readily available. However, in case of suboptimal performance (ie, <22 m in the stair-climbing test) patients should be referred to cardiopulmonary exercise testing with measurement of Vo(2max) for a better definition of their aerobic reserve. A Vo(2max) less than 10 mL/kg/min (or <35% of predicted) indicates a high risk for major lung resection.

  3. Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide (CO). This report is EPA’s latest evaluation of the scientific literature on the potential human health and welfare effects associated with ambient exposures to CO. The development of this document is part of the Agency's periodic review of the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for CO. The recently completed CO ISA and supplementary annexes, in conjunction with additional technical and policy assessments developed by EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation, will provide the scientific basis to inform EPA decisions related to the review of the current CO NAAQS. The integrated Plan for Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Carbon Monoxide (U.S. EPA, 2008, 193995) identifies key policy-relevant questions that provide a framework for this assessment of the scientific evidence. These questions frame the entire review of the NAAQS for CO and thus are informed by both science and policy considerations. The ISA organizes, presents, and integrates the scientific evidence which is considered along with findings from risk analyses and policy considerations to help the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) address these questions during the NAAQS review.

  4. Cyber/Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonald, Douglas G.; Clements, Samuel L.; Patrick, Scott W.; Perkins, Casey J.; Muller, George; Lancaster, Mary J.; Hutton, William J.

    2013-02-28

    Securing high value and critical assets is one of the biggest challenges facing this nation and others around the world. In modern integrated systems, there are four potential modes of attack available to an adversary: • physical only attack, • cyber only attack, • physical-enabled cyber attack, • cyber-enabled physical attack. Blended attacks involve an adversary working in one domain to reduce system effectiveness in another domain. This enables the attacker to penetrate further into the overall layered defenses. Existing vulnerability assessment (VA) processes and software tools which predict facility vulnerabilities typically evaluate the physical and cyber domains separately. Vulnerabilities which result from the integration of cyber-physical control systems are not well characterized and are often overlooked by existing assessment approaches. In this paper, we modified modification of the timely detection methodology, used for decades in physical security VAs, to include cyber components. The Physical and Cyber Risk Analysis Tool (PACRAT) prototype illustrates an integrated vulnerability assessment that includes cyber-physical interdependencies. Information about facility layout, network topology, and emplaced safeguards is used to evaluate how well suited a facility is to detect, delay, and respond to attacks, to identify the pathways most vulnerable to attack, and to evaluate how often safeguards are compromised for a given threat or adversary type. We have tested the PACRAT prototype on critical infrastructure facilities and the results are promising. Future work includes extending the model to prescribe the recommended security improvements via an automated cost-benefit analysis.

  5. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  6. Neuropsychological Assessment of Hippocampal Integrity.

    PubMed

    Saury, Jean-Michel; Emanuelson, Ingrid

    2017-01-01

    Finding methods to describe subcortical processes assisting cognition is an important concern for clinical neuropsychological practice. In this study, we reviewed the literature concerning the relationship between a neuropsychological instrument and the underlying neural substructure. We examined evidence indicating that one of the oldest neuropsychological tests still in use, the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT), includes reliable indicators of hippocampal integrity. We reviewed studies investigating the neural structures underlying seven tasks generated by the RAVLT, from the perspective of whether the performance of these tasks is dependent on the hippocampus. We found support for our hypothesis in five cases: learning capacity, proactive interference, immediate recall, delayed recall, and delayed recognition. No support for our hypothesis was found with regard to short-term memory and retroactive interference. The RAVLT appears to be a reliable tool for assessing the integrity of the hippocampus and for the early detection of dysfunction. There is a need for such assessments, due to the crucial role of the hippocampus in cognition, for instance, in terms of predicting future outcomes.

  7. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    PubMed

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  8. Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced that the First External Review Draft of the Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide (CO) and related Annexes was made available for independent peer review and public review. This draft ISA document represents a concise synthesis and evaluation of the most policy-relevant science and will ultimately provide the scientific bases for EPA's decision regarding whether the current standards for CO sufficiently protect public health and the environment. The Integrated Plan for Review of the NAAQS for CO {U.S. EPA, 2008 #8615} identifies key policy-relevant questions that provide a framework for this review of the scientific evidence. These questions frame the entire review of the NAAQS, and thus are informed by both science and policy considerations. The ISA organizes and presents the scientific evidence such that it, when considered along with findings from risk analyses and policy considerations, will help the EPA address these questions during the NAAQS review:

  9. Integrative Treatments to Reduce Risk for Cardiovascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Bradley, Ryan; Oberg, Erica

    2010-01-01

    Recognizing the contribution and interrelatedness of lipoprotein risk factors is critical to prioritizing treatment strategies for cardiovascular risk reduction. Lipoprotein factors still dominate risk for developing cardiovascular disease, including myocardial infarction. Some emerging risk factors such as C-reactive protein are gaining acceptance due to recent prospective clinical trials demonstrating clinical benefit in reducing these markers. Other emerging risk factors, including lipoprotein particle size, remain to be validated. In this second article of a 2-part series, we will begin with a review of formal risk assessment, discussing the contribution of multiple “risky” and “healthy” components that play a part in overall cardiovascular health. Following risk assessment, we will discuss evidence-based integrative therapies that can be used to modify any risky lipoprotein and inflammatory patient profiles, including medications, functional foods, supplements, and lifestyle approaches. The focus is on low-density lipoproteins, high-density lipoproteins, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein. Understanding the interrelatedness of lipoprotein risk factors, and finding efficient methods of treating multiple risk factors simultaneously, will not only improve the long-term health of patients but will also save on the expenditure of healthcare dollars for unnecessary testing and ineffective treatments. Integrative practitioners who understand the contribution of lifestyle factors, and who have numerous effective treatment options at their disposal, are well positioned to counsel patients on cardiovascular disease prevention. PMID:21461347

  10. CYBER/PHYSICAL SECURITY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT INTEGRATION

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonald, Douglas G.; Key, Brad; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Craig, Philip A.; Patrick, Scott W.; Crawford, Cary E.

    2011-07-17

    This internally funded Laboratory-Directed R&D project by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, in conjunction with QinetiQ North America, is intended to identify and properly assess areas of overlap (and interaction) in the vulnerability assessment process between cyber security and physical protection. Existing vulnerability analysis (VA) processes and software tools exist, and these are heavily utilized in the determination of predicted vulnerability within the physical and cyber security domains. These determinations are normally performed independently of one another, and only interact on a superficial level. Both physical and cyber security subject matter experts have come to realize that though the various interactive elements exist, they are not currently quantified in most periodic security assessments. This endeavor aims to evaluate both physical and cyber VA techniques and provide a strategic approach to integrate the interdependent relationships of each into a single VA capability. This effort will also transform the existing suite of software currently utilized in the physical protection world to more accurately quantify the risk associated with a blended attack scenario. Performance databases will be created to support the characterization of the cyber security elements, and roll them into prototype software tools. This new methodology and software capability will enable analysts to better identify and assess the overall risk during a vulnerability analysis.

  11. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  12. Integrated biodepuration of pesticide-contaminated wastewaters from the fruit-packaging industry using biobeds: Bioaugmentation, risk assessment and optimized management.

    PubMed

    Karas, Panagiotis A; Perruchon, Chiara; Karanasios, Evangelos; Papadopoulou, Evangelia S; Manthou, Elena; Sitra, Stefania; Ehaliotis, Constantinos; Karpouzas, Dimitrios G

    2016-12-15

    Wastewaters from fruit-packaging plants contain high loads of toxic and persistent pesticides and should be treated on site. We evaluated the depuration performance of five pilot biobeds against those effluents. In addition we tested bioaugmentation with bacterial inocula as a strategy for optimization of their depuration capacity. Finally we determined the composition and functional dynamics of the microbial community via q-PCR. Practical issues were also addressed including the risk associated with the direct environmental disposal of biobed-treated effluents and decontamination methods for the spent packing material. Biobeds showed high depuration capacity (>99.5%) against all pesticides with bioaugmentation maximizing their depuration performance against the persistent fungicide thiabendazole (TBZ). This was followed by a significant increase in the abundance of bacteria, fungi and of catabolic genes of aromatic compounds catA and pcaH. Bioaugmentation was the most potent decontamination method for spent packing material with composting being an effective alternative. Risk assessment based on practical scenarios (pome and citrus fruit-packaging plants) and the depuration performance of the pilot biobeds showed that discharge of the treated effluents into an 0.1-ha disposal site did not entail an environmental risk, except for TBZ-containing effluents where a larger disposal area (0.2ha) or bioaugmentation alleviated the risk.

  13. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  14. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    PubMed Central

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-01-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

  15. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  16. Risk assessment for neurobehavioral toxicity

    SciTech Connect

    McMillan, D.E.

    1987-12-01

    A study of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC) found neurobehavioral toxicity to be one of the areas where almost no data are available for the assessment of toxicity. Using the NAS/NRC report and a data base from the American Conference of Government Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH), an estimate of the number of neurobehavioral toxins in commercial chemicals can be made. Although the assumption made in making such a calculation may be invalid, the exercise suggests that the number of neurobehavioral toxins may be quite large. There does seem to be general agreement as to what type of neurobehavioral test procedures are appropriate for regulatory purposes. Select committees have consistently recommended the use of test batteries that include schedule-controlled behavior, motor activity, and neuropathological examination following in vivo perfusion, for regulatory purposes. Alkyltin data developed from such a battery were applied to the risk assessment model employed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their calculations of acceptable daily intake. Using this test battery and the EPA risk assessment model, the acceptable daily intake calculated is of the same order of magnitude as the total limit values established by the ACGIH. A number of special issues in neurobehavioral toxicity also are discussed, including the definition of adverse neurobehavioral toxic effect, species extrapolation, correlation of behavior and neuropathology, alternative methods, and quality of life issues.

  17. Integrated assessment of biological invasions.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Ines; Diez, Jeffrey M; Miller, Luke P; Olden, Julian D; Sorte, Cascade J B; Blumenthal, Dana M; Bradley, Bethany A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Early, Regan I; Grosholz, Edwin D; Lawler, Joshua J

    2014-01-01

    As the main witnesses of the ecological and economic impacts of invasions on ecosystems around the world, ecologists seek to provide the relevant science that informs managers about the potential for invasion of specific organisms in their region(s) of interest. Yet, the assorted literature that could inform such forecasts is rarely integrated to do so, and further, the diverse nature of the data available complicates synthesis and quantitative prediction. Here we present a set of analytical tools for synthesizing different levels of distributional and/or demographic data to produce meaningful assessments of invasion potential that can guide management at multiple phases of ongoing invasions, from dispersal to colonization to proliferation. We illustrate the utility of data-synthesis and data-model assimilation approaches with case studies of three well-known invasive species--a vine, a marine mussel, and a freshwater crayfish--under current and projected future climatic conditions. Results from the integrated assessments reflect the complexity of the invasion process and show that the most relevant climatic variables can have contrasting effects or operate at different intensities across habitat types. As a consequence, for two of the study species climate trends will increase the likelihood of invasion in some habitats and decrease it in others. Our results identified and quantified both bottlenecks and windows of opportunity for invasion, mainly related to the role of human uses of the landscape or to disruption of the flow of resources. The approach we describe has a high potential to enhance model realism, explanatory insight, and predictive capability, generating information that can inform management decisions and optimize phase-specific prevention and control efforts for a wide range of biological invasions.

  18. Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

    PubMed

    Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

    2016-10-15

    Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision

  19. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  20. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  1. Reproducibility and Transparency of Omics Research - Impacts on Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Omics technologies are becoming more widely used in toxicology, necessitating their consideration in human health hazard and risk assessment programs. Today, risk assessors in the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Toxicologi...

  2. Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2016-01-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of human health and performance success during exploration missions as well as to maintain the subsequent long-term health of the crew. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  3. Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Shelhamer, M.; Canga, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during exploration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modeled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified, however, this has been in an ad hoc fashion. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioral, vehicle, and organizational aspects of the exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. We will discuss how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information is allowing us to identify and visualize connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized way. We will discuss the applications of the visualizations and insights to research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  4. An Integrated Learning System: Impact on At-Risk Students' Ninth Grade TAKS Mathematics Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Tina D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of an integrated learning system on students who were considered at-risk of academic failure on the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) mathematics assessment. Voyager Math (VMath), an integrated learning system had been implemented to address the needs of students at-risk of…

  5. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  6. Modelling the exposure to chemicals for risk assessment: a comprehensive library of multimedia and PBPK models for integration, prediction, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis - the MERLIN-Expo tool.

    PubMed

    Ciffroy, P; Alfonso, B; Altenpohl, A; Banjac, Z; Bierkens, J; Brochot, C; Critto, A; De Wilde, T; Fait, G; Fierens, T; Garratt, J; Giubilato, E; Grange, E; Johansson, E; Radomyski, A; Reschwann, K; Suciu, N; Tanaka, T; Tediosi, A; Van Holderbeke, M; Verdonck, F

    2016-10-15

    MERLIN-Expo is a library of models that was developed in the frame of the FP7 EU project 4FUN in order to provide an integrated assessment tool for state-of-the-art exposure assessment for environment, biota and humans, allowing the detection of scientific uncertainties at each step of the exposure process. This paper describes the main features of the MERLIN-Expo tool. The main challenges in exposure modelling that MERLIN-Expo has tackled are: (i) the integration of multimedia (MM) models simulating the fate of chemicals in environmental media, and of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models simulating the fate of chemicals in human body. MERLIN-Expo thus allows the determination of internal effective chemical concentrations; (ii) the incorporation of a set of functionalities for uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, from screening to variance-based approaches. The availability of such tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis aimed to facilitate the incorporation of such issues in future decision making; (iii) the integration of human and wildlife biota targets with common fate modelling in the environment. MERLIN-Expo is composed of a library of fate models dedicated to non biological receptor media (surface waters, soils, outdoor air), biological media of concern for humans (several cultivated crops, mammals, milk, fish), as well as wildlife biota (primary producers in rivers, invertebrates, fish) and humans. These models can be linked together to create flexible scenarios relevant for both human and wildlife biota exposure. Standardized documentation for each model and training material were prepared to support an accurate use of the tool by end-users. One of the objectives of the 4FUN project was also to increase the confidence in the applicability of the MERLIN-Expo tool through targeted realistic case studies. In particular, we aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of building complex realistic exposure scenarios and the accuracy of the

  7. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  8. Integrated Waste Treatment Unit GFSI Risk Management Plan

    SciTech Connect

    W. A. Owca

    2007-06-21

    This GFSI Risk Management Plan (RMP) describes the strategy for assessing and managing project risks for the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) that are specifically within the control and purview of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and identifies the risks that formed the basis for the DOE contingency included in the performance baseline. DOE-held contingency is required to cover cost and schedule impacts of DOE activities. Prior to approval of the performance baseline (Critical Decision-2) project cost contingency was evaluated during a joint meeting of the Contractor Management Team and the Integrated Project Team for both contractor and DOE risks to schedule and cost. At that time, the contractor cost and schedule risk value was $41.3M and the DOE cost and schedule risk contingency value is $39.0M. The contractor cost and schedule risk value of $41.3M was retained in the performance baseline as the contractor's management reserve for risk contingency. The DOE cost and schedule risk value of $39.0M has been retained in the performance baseline as the DOE Contingency. The performance baseline for the project was approved in December 2006 (Garman 2006). The project will continue to manage to the performance baseline and change control thresholds identified in PLN-1963, ''Idaho Cleanup Project Sodium-Bearing Waste Treatment Project Execution Plan'' (PEP).

  9. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean

  10. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  11. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  12. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  13. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    PubMed

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  14. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  15. The Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21): Roadmap and Matrix

    EPA Science Inventory

    The RISK21 integrated evaluation strategy is a problem formulation-based exposure-driven risk assessment roadmap that takes advantage of existing information to graphically represent the intersection of exposure and toxicity data on a highly visual matrix. This paper describes i...

  16. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  17. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  18. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  19. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  20. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects.

  1. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  2. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  3. Preamble to the Integrated Science Assessments (ISA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Preamble to the Integrated Science Assessments, or "Preamble", is an overview document outlining the basic steps and criteria used in developing the Integrated Science Assessments (ISA). Previously included as part of the ISA, it will now be referenced by each ISA as...

  4. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  5. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  6. Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

  7. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  8. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  9. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  10. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  11. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  12. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  13. Wetlands in the ecological risk assessment process: A case study

    SciTech Connect

    Saban, L.B.

    1995-12-31

    In the past few years, the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process as outlined in the EPA document Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment has been successfully used to assess risk to birds, mammals, aquatic organisms, plants, and to a limited extent, reptiles and amphibians, but has only recently been applied to wetlands. Due to the unique role that wetlands play in the environment as sources and sinks for nutrients, sediment retention, high productivity, habitat transition zones, aquifer recharge, high diversity and richness of biota, and aesthetic value, it is important to consider the entire wetland system in the ERA process. Because nearly sixty percent of Superfund sites are located in or near wetlands, a comprehensive approach is proposed to evaluate potential risks to flora and fauna in these wetland environments. Using the delineation and functional assessment techniques developed by wetland scientists, an estuarine wetland in western Washington was evaluated within the scope of ERA`S. The ERA was applied to the wetland using functional assessments as an integral part of the problem formulation phase of the risk assessment process. Applying the ERA process to wetlands enhances the functional assessment process and helps to define critical elements to evaluate within wetland systems. The results of this risk assessment help to define patches within a landscape that are potentially at risk and how to prioritize remedial actions.

  14. 2010 Final Assessment: Integrated Science Assessment for Carbon Monoxide

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the <span class=Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide" vspace = "5" hspace="5" align="right" border="1" /> EPA has released the final Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for ...

  15. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  16. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  17. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  18. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  20. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  1. HIV Risk and Protection among Gay Male Couples: The Role of Gay Community Integration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fergus, Stevenson; Lewis, Megan A.; Darbes, Lynae A.; Butterfield, Rita M.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined the association between different types of integration in the gay community and HIV risk among gay male couples. Previous research linking gay community integration and involvement among couples to HIV risk has been equivocal. Each partner in 59 gay couples completed a separate anonymous questionnaire that assessed two types of…

  2. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    SciTech Connect

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-12-31

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures.

  3. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  4. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  5. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  6. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  7. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  8. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  9. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  10. Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

  11. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  12. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

    2008-06-01

    The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

  13. Applying ecological risk principles to watershed assessment and management.

    PubMed

    Serveiss, Victor B

    2002-02-01

    Considerable progress in addressing point source (end of pipe) pollution problems has been made, but it is now recognized that further substantial environmental improvements depend on controlling nonpoint source pollution. A watershed approach is being used more frequently to address these problems because traditional regulatory approaches do not focus on nonpoint sources. The watershed approach is organized around the guiding principles of partnerships, geographic focus, and management based on sound science and data. This helps to focus efforts on the highest priority problems within hydrologically-defined geographic areas. Ecological risk assessment is a process to collect, organize, analyze, and present scientific information to improve decision making. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sponsored three watershed assessments and found that integrating the watershed approach with ecological risk assessment increases the use of environmental monitoring and assessment data in decision making. This paper describes the basics of the watershed approach, the ecological risk assessment process, and how these two frameworks can be integrated. The three major principles of watershed ecological risk assessment found to be most useful for increasing the use of science in decision making are (1) using assessment endpoints and conceptual models, (2) holding regular interactions between scientists and managers, and (3) developing a focus for multiple stressor analysis. Examples are provided illustrating how these principles were implemented in these assessments.

  14. EMERGY METHODS: VALUABLE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT TOOLS

    EPA Science Inventory

    NHEERL's Atlantic Ecology Division is investigating emergy methods as tools for integrated assessment in several projects evaluating environmental impacts, policies, and alternatives for remediation and intervention. Emergy accounting is a methodology that provides a quantitative...

  15. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  16. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  17. Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dong; Liu, Jing; Xie, Wuxiang; Qi, Yue

    2015-05-01

    An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

  18. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  19. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  20. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  1. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  2. Integrated modular engine - Reliability assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsley, R. C.; Ward, T. B.

    1992-07-01

    A major driver in the increased interest in integrated modular engine configurations is the desire for ultra reliability for future rocket propulsion systems. The concept of configuring multiple sets of turbomachinery networked to multiple thrust chamber assemblies has been identified as an approach with potential to achieve significant reliability enhancement. This paper summarizes the results of a reliability study comparing networked systems vs. discrete engine installations, both with and without major module and engine redundancy. The study was conducted for gas generator, expander, and staged combustion cycles. The results are representative of either booster or upper-stage applications and are indicative of either plug or nonplug installation philosophies.

  3. Life cycle risk assessment of bottom ash reuse.

    PubMed

    Shih, Hsiu-ching; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2011-06-15

    The life cycle thinking was integrated with risk assessment to develop the life cycle risk assessment (LCRA) methodology in this study. Because LCRA assessed risks from a life cycle perspective of the concerned policies, it was helpful to identify important sources, contaminants, receptors and exposure pathways along the life cycle of reuse activities. The case study showed that different reuse scenarios resulted in risk shift between different life stages and receptors, and using duration of pavement was an essential factor for risk management. When ash reuse strategies were made based on a focus on the stage of reuse, the rank of strategies were shown to be different from the one based on the total population risks over the entire life cycle. This demonstrated the importance of decision criteria used in selecting reuse strategies. The results also showed that when bottom ash was reused, the health risk was shifted to the laborers; the individual risks of laborers were higher than residents through exposure to Cr and Cd via inhalation and dermal contact. Although the population risk at the treatment stage was the highest, the smaller size of exposed population would make it quite effective to reduce the risk of the laborers.

  4. Integrated risk reduction along the food chain.

    PubMed

    Mumford, Elizabeth L; Kihm, Ulrich

    2006-10-01

    Animal health is the crucial first part of the food chain and must be considered when developing the controls or preventative measures for an endemic or emerging zoonotic food-borne diseases. Increasing the number of complementary control measures at various points along the food processing chain results in overall risk reduction and improved safety of products for the domestic markets and trade. In addition, a risk assessment must be made and surveillance implemented. Measures require sufficient infrastructure within veterinary services, and must be controlled and re-evaluated periodically. The system must be communicated to stakeholders in order to improve compliance as well as confidence from domestic consumers, trading partners, and the international community. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and avian influenza (AI) can be used as examples for implementation of these control concepts.

  5. Guidelines for Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These Guidelines set forth principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in evaluating environmental contaminants that may pose neurotoxic risks, and inform Agency decision makers and the public about these procedures.

  6. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  7. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  8. Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.

    PubMed

    Rettenberger, Martin; Matthes, Anna; Boer, Douglas P; Eher, Reinhard

    2010-04-01

    This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

  9. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  10. Key Elements for Judging the Quality of a Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Fenner-Crisp, Penelope A.; Dellarco, Vicki L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Many reports have been published that contain recommendations for improving the quality, transparency, and usefulness of decision making for risk assessments prepared by agencies of the U.S. federal government. A substantial measure of consensus has emerged regarding the characteristics that high-quality assessments should possess. Objective: The goal was to summarize the key characteristics of a high-quality assessment as identified in the consensus-building process and to integrate them into a guide for use by decision makers, risk assessors, peer reviewers and other interested stakeholders to determine if an assessment meets the criteria for high quality. Discussion: Most of the features cited in the guide are applicable to any type of assessment, whether it encompasses one, two, or all four phases of the risk-assessment paradigm; whether it is qualitative or quantitative; and whether it is screening level or highly sophisticated and complex. Other features are tailored to specific elements of an assessment. Just as agencies at all levels of government are responsible for determining the effectiveness of their programs, so too should they determine the effectiveness of their assessments used in support of their regulatory decisions. Furthermore, if a nongovernmental entity wishes to have its assessments considered in the governmental regulatory decision-making process, then these assessments should be judged in the same rigorous manner and be held to similar standards. Conclusions: The key characteristics of a high-quality assessment can be summarized and integrated into a guide for judging whether an assessment possesses the desired features of high quality, transparency, and usefulness. Citation: Fenner-Crisp PA, Dellarco VL. 2016. Key elements for judging the quality of a risk assessment. Environ Health Perspect 124:1127–1135; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510483 PMID:26862984

  11. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, M.D.; Varma, R.; Heger, A.S.

    1996-03-01

    Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.

  12. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  13. Screening risk assessment tools for assessing the environmental impact in an abandoned pyritic mine in Spain.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Jiménez, Eduardo; García-Gómez, Concepción; Oropesa, Ana Lourdes; Esteban, Elvira; Haro, Amparo; Carpena-Ruiz, Ramón; Tarazona, Jose Vicente; Peñalosa, Jesus Manuel; Fernández, María Dolores

    2011-01-15

    This paper describes a new methodology for assessing site-specific environmental impact of contaminants. The proposed method integrates traditional risk assessment approaches with real and variable environmental characteristics at a local scale. Environmental impact on selected receptors was classified for each environmental compartment into 5 categories derived from the whole (chronic and acute) risk assessment using 8 risk levels. Risk levels were established according to three hazard quotients (HQs) which represented the ratio of exposure to acute and chronic toxicity values. This tool allowed integrating in only one impact category all the elements involved in the standard risk assessment. The methodology was applied to an abandoned metal mine in Spain, where high levels of As, Cd, Zn and Cu were detected. Risk affecting potential receptors such as aquatic and soil organisms and terrestrial vertebrates were assessed. Whole results showed that impact to the ecosystem is likely high and further investigation or remedial actions are necessary. Some proposals to refine the risk assessment for a more realistic diagnostic are included.

  14. Risk Assessment of the Carbon Nanotube Group

    PubMed Central

    Morimoto, Yasuo; Ogura, Isamu; Kobayashi, Norihiro; Naya, Masato; Ema, Makoto; Endoh, Shigehisa; Shimada, Manabu; Ogami, Akira; Myojyo, Toshihiko; Oyabu, Takako; Gamo, Masashi; Kishimoto, Atsuo; Igarashi, Takuya; Hanai, Sosuke

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the health risks via inhalation and derived the occupational exposure limit (OEL) for the carbon nanotube (CNT) group rather than individual CNT material. We devised two methods: the integration of the intratracheal instillation (IT) data with the inhalation (IH) data, and the “biaxial approach.” A four‐week IH test and IT test were performed in rats exposed to representative materials to obtain the no observed adverse effect level, based on which the OEL was derived. We used the biaxial approach to conduct a relative toxicity assessment of six types of CNTs. An OEL of 0.03 mg/m3 was selected as the criterion for the CNT group. We proposed that the OEL be limited to 15 years. We adopted adaptive management, in which the values are reviewed whenever new data are obtained. The toxicity level was found to be correlated with the Brunauer‐Emmett‐Teller (BET)‐specific surface area (BET‐SSA) of CNT, suggesting the BET‐SSA to have potential for use in toxicity estimation. We used the published exposure data and measurement results of dustiness tests to compute the risk in relation to particle size at the workplace and showed that controlling micron‐sized respirable particles was of utmost importance. Our genotoxicity studies indicated that CNT did not directly interact with genetic materials. They supported the concept that, even if CNT is genotoxic, it is secondary genotoxicity mediated via a pathway of genotoxic damage resulting from oxidative DNA attack by free radicals generated during CNT‐elicited inflammation. Secondary genotoxicity appears to involve a threshold. PMID:25943334

  15. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  16. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  17. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  18. USE OF TOXICOGENOMICS DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The goal of this project is to address the question, “Can existing toxicogenomics (TG) data improve Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chemical health or risk assessments?” Although genomics data promises to impact multiple areas of science, medicine, law, and policy, there are only a few areas where genomics data currently has application (e.g., biomarkers of disease). As the technology continues to advance, EPA will need to prepare for genomics data availability and submission by: 1) identifying areas of risk assessment where such data may be particularly useful; 2) developing acceptance criteria for inclusion of toxicogenomics data in risk assessment; and 3) developing approaches for the use of toxicogenomics in risk assessment. These needs will likely require an iterative and collaborative research process between risk assessors and scientists (inside and outside the Agency). At the NCEA sponsored Genomics and Risk Assessment Colloquium in 2003, one of the recommendations was to conduct case studies that could provide a practical attempt to incorporate currently available toxicogenomics data that would illuminate issues and the methods development. This project is responds to this recommendation. To address the question of whether TG data can improve health risk assessments, a case study will be performed in which TG data for one chemical will be incorporated qualitatively within the hazard characterization step of a recent or ongoing EPA chemical he

  19. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  20. BRAFO tiered approach for Benefit-Risk Assessment of Foods.

    PubMed

    Hoekstra, Jeljer; Hart, Andy; Boobis, Alan; Claupein, Erika; Cockburn, Andrew; Hunt, Alistair; Knudsen, Ib; Richardson, David; Schilter, Benoît; Schütte, Katrin; Torgerson, Paul R; Verhagen, Hans; Watzl, Bernhard; Chiodini, Alessandro

    2012-11-01

    BRAFO stands for Benefit-Risk Analysis for Foods. This European Commission funded project aims at developing a framework that allows quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits of foods and food compounds based on a common scale of measurement. A methodology group brought together methodologies from several disciplines relevant to the evaluation of risks and benefits in food. This group reviewed and assembled the methodologies available. They produced this guidance document that describes a tiered ('stepwise') approach for performing a risk and benefit assessment of foods. This process starts with pre-assessment and problem formulation to set the scope of the assessment. This includes defining two scenarios, the reference and an alternative that are compared in the assessment. The approach consists of four tiers. In many cases, a lower tier assessment in which risks and benefits are qualitatively evaluated may be sufficient to show a clear difference between the health impacts of the two scenarios. In other cases, increasingly sophisticated methods to integrate risks and benefits quantitatively are used at higher tiers to assess the net health impact.

  1. NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

    2015-01-01

    NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

  2. Fort Drum integrated resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, D.R.; Armstrong, P.R.; Brodrick, J.R.; Daellenbach, K.K.; Di Massa, F.V.; Keller, J.M.; Richman, E.E.; Sullivan, G.P.; Wahlstrom, R.R.

    1992-12-01

    The US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) has tasked the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as the lead laboratory supporting the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program's mission to identify, evaluate, and assist in acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at Fort Drum. This is a model program PNL is designing for federal customers served by the Niagara Mohawk Power Company. It will identify and evaluate all electric and fossil fuel cost-effective energy projects; develop a schedule at each installation for project acquisition considering project type, size, timing, and capital requirements, as well as energy and dollar savings; and secure 100% of the financing required to implement electric energy efficiency projects from Niagara Mohawk and have Niagara Mohawk procure the necessary contractors to perform detailed audits and install the technologies. This report documents the assessment of baseline energy use at one of Niagara Mohawk's primary federal facilities, the FORSCOM Fort Drum facility located near Watertown, New York. It is a companion report to Volume 1, the Executive Summary, and Volume 3, the Resource Assessment. This analysis examines the characteristics of electric, gas, oil, propane, coal, and purchased thermal capacity use for fiscal year (FY) 1990. It records energy-use intensities for the facilities at Fort Drum by building type and energy end use. It also breaks down building energy consumption by fuel type, energy end use, and building type. A complete energy consumption reconciliation is presented that includes the accounting of all energy use among buildings, utilities, central systems, and applicable losses.

  3. Griffiss AFB integrated resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, D.R.; Armstrong, P.R.; Keller, J.M.

    1993-02-01

    The US Air Force Air Combat Command has tasked the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as the lead laboratory supporting the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP) mission to identify, evaluate, and assist in acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at Griffiss Air Force Base (AFB). This is a model program PNL is designing for federal customers served by the Niagara Mohawk Power Company (Niagara Mohawk). It will (1) identify and evaluate all electric cost-effective energy projects; (2) develop a schedule at each installation for project acquisition considering project type, size, timing, and capital requirements, as well as energy and dollar savings; and (3) secure 100% of the financing required to implement electric energy efficiency projects from Niagara Mohawk and have Niagara Mohawk procure the necessary contractors to perform detailed audits and install the technologies. This report documents the assessment of baseline energy use at one of Niagara Mohawk's primary federal facilities, Griffiss AFB, an Air Combat Command facility located near Rome, New York. It is a companion report to Volume 1, the Executive Summary, and Volume 3, the Electric Resource Assessment. The analysis examines the characteristics of electric, gas, oil, propane, coal, and purchased thermal capacity use for fiscal year (FY) 1990. The results include energy-use intensities for the facilities at Griffiss AFB by building type and electric energy end use. A complete electric energy consumption reconciliation is presented that accounts for the distribution of all major electric energy uses and losses among buildings, utilities, and central systems.

  4. ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

    waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

    designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

  5. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  6. Biomechanical rupture risk assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysms based on a novel probabilistic rupture risk index.

    PubMed

    Polzer, Stanislav; Gasser, T Christian

    2015-12-06

    A rupture risk assessment is critical to the clinical treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients. The biomechanical AAA rupture risk assessment quantitatively integrates many known AAA rupture risk factors but the variability of risk predictions due to model input uncertainties remains a challenging limitation. This study derives a probabilistic rupture risk index (PRRI). Specifically, the uncertainties in AAA wall thickness and wall strength were considered, and wall stress was predicted with a state-of-the-art deterministic biomechanical model. The discriminative power of PRRI was tested in a diameter-matched cohort of ruptured (n = 7) and intact (n = 7) AAAs and compared to alternative risk assessment methods. Computed PRRI at 1.5 mean arterial pressure was significantly (p = 0.041) higher in ruptured AAAs (20.21(s.d. 14.15%)) than in intact AAAs (3.71(s.d. 5.77)%). PRRI showed a high sensitivity and specificity (discriminative power of 0.837) to discriminate between ruptured and intact AAA cases. The underlying statistical representation of stochastic data of wall thickness, wall strength and peak wall stress had only negligible effects on PRRI computations. Uncertainties in AAA wall stress predictions, the wide range of reported wall strength and the stochastic nature of failure motivate a probabilistic rupture risk assessment. Advanced AAA biomechanical modelling paired with a probabilistic rupture index definition as known from engineering risk assessment seems to be superior to a purely deterministic approach.

  7. Biomechanical rupture risk assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysms based on a novel probabilistic rupture risk index

    PubMed Central

    Polzer, Stanislav; Gasser, T. Christian

    2015-01-01

    A rupture risk assessment is critical to the clinical treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients. The biomechanical AAA rupture risk assessment quantitatively integrates many known AAA rupture risk factors but the variability of risk predictions due to model input uncertainties remains a challenging limitation. This study derives a probabilistic rupture risk index (PRRI). Specifically, the uncertainties in AAA wall thickness and wall strength were considered, and wall stress was predicted with a state-of-the-art deterministic biomechanical model. The discriminative power of PRRI was tested in a diameter-matched cohort of ruptured (n = 7) and intact (n = 7) AAAs and compared to alternative risk assessment methods. Computed PRRI at 1.5 mean arterial pressure was significantly (p = 0.041) higher in ruptured AAAs (20.21(s.d. 14.15%)) than in intact AAAs (3.71(s.d. 5.77)%). PRRI showed a high sensitivity and specificity (discriminative power of 0.837) to discriminate between ruptured and intact AAA cases. The underlying statistical representation of stochastic data of wall thickness, wall strength and peak wall stress had only negligible effects on PRRI computations. Uncertainties in AAA wall stress predictions, the wide range of reported wall strength and the stochastic nature of failure motivate a probabilistic rupture risk assessment. Advanced AAA biomechanical modelling paired with a probabilistic rupture index definition as known from engineering risk assessment seems to be superior to a purely deterministic approach. PMID:26631334

  8. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  9. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  10. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  11. TOXICOLOGICAL BASIS FOR DRINKING WATER RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is charged with protecting human health and the environment. Environmental protection decisions are often guided by risk assessments that are used to develop regulatory policy and other related guidance. Historically, in environmen...

  12. Guidelines for Reproductive Toxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These guidelines discuss the scientific basis for concern about exposure to agents that cause reproductive toxicity and describe the principles and procedures to be followed in conducting risk assessments for reproductive toxicity.

  13. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  14. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  15. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  16. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John; Mitchell, Roger; Binning, David; Meszaros, Jenny

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  17. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  18. Stakeholder consultations and opportunities for integrating socio-behavioural factors into the pesticide risk analysis process.

    PubMed

    Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alex; Sacchettini, Gabriele; Capri, Ettore

    2016-02-01

    The pesticide risk analysis process is well regulated in the EU, especially in relation to placing on the market authorisation procedures, but in order to avoid risks for human health and environment in the use phase, information on how these substances are employed and on socio-behavioural factors that can influence the exposure have to be taken into account. To better explore reasons about the gap between risk assessment and risk management, within the EU FP7 Health and Environmental Risks: Organisation, Integration and Cross-fertilisation of Scientific Knowledge (HEROIC) project, a stepwise stakeholder's consultation process was developed using a mixed approach in two different phases (survey and roundtable). We elicited stakeholder views regarding factors that could limit the pesticide risk assessment phase linked on how the knowledge is produced and the way the data are used in risk management and in risk communication, also taking into account qualitative factors such as responsibility, trust and behaviours, which could have impact on risk assessment policies. Activities deployed indicate that some changes and interaction are needed to better define the problems at the formulation stage, and the type of information risk assessor has to provide, to better inform risk manager in addressing different societal needs, to strengthen the credibility of the process of risk assessment and improve the effectiveness of policies. Integrations between disciplines may initially increase the complexity but in turn will provide a better and more useful estimation of the risk, reinforce transparency and drive a more efficient use of risk management resources.

  19. [Risk assessment in upper limb overload].

    PubMed

    Martinelli, R; Casilli, A; Fanelli, C; Pizzuti, S; Tarquini, M; Tobia, L; Paoletti, A

    2007-01-01

    One of the most important factors of the work-related musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities (WMSDs) is the biomechanical overload. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the possibility to predict the upper limb repetitive stress, according to risk assessment procedures. In order to this aim, we gathered clinical-anamnestic data and risk assessment considerations of a cohort of workers in a car industry.

  20. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  1. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  2. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  3. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  4. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  5. INTEGRATED MULTIMEDIA DECISION-MAKING FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT: A NATIONAL-SCALE STUDY OF LAND APPLICATION OF ARSENIC-BEARING WASTES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Requisite to the development and application of sound waste management policies, decision-makers must discern the impact of a given waste management approach upon both human and ecological receptors. To configure such policies solely upon the assessment of impact to humans, for ...

  6. A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

    2010-12-01

    Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

  7. An Integrated Approach to Identification, Assessment and Management of Watershed-Scale Risk for Sustainable Water Use Through Reuse and Recycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunter, C. K.; Bolster, D.; Gironas, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Water resources are essential to development, not only economically but also socially, politically and ecologically. With growing demand and potentially shrinking supply, water scarcity is one of the most pressing socio-ecological problems of the 21st century. Considering implications of global change and the complexity of interrelated systems, uncertain future conditions compound problems associated with water stress, requiring hydrologic models to re-examine traditional water resource planning and management. The Copiapó water basin, located in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile exhibits a complex resource management scenario. With annual average precipitation of only 28 mm, water intensive sectors such as export agriculture, extensive mining, and a growing population have depleted the aquifeŕs reserves to near critical levels. Being that global climate change models predict a decrease in already scarce precipitation, and that growing population and economies demand will likely increase, the real future situation might be even worse than that predicted. A viable option for alleviation of water stress, water reuse and recycling has evolved through technological innovation to feasibly meet hydraulic needs with reclaimed water. For the proper application of these methods for resource management, however, stakeholders must possess tools by which to quantify hydrologic risk, understand its factors of causation, and choose between competing management scenarios and technologies so as to optimize productivity. While previous investigations have addressed similar problems, they often overlook aspects of forecasting uncertainty, proposing solutions that while accurate under specific scenarios, lack robustness to withstand future variations. Using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) platform for hydrologic modeling, this study proposes a methodology, applicable to other stressed watersheds, to quantify inherent risk in water management positions, while considering

  8. Scoring methods and results for qualitative evaluation of public health impacts from the Hanford high-level waste tanks. Integrated Risk Assessment Program

    SciTech Connect

    Buck, J.W.; Gelston, G.M.; Farris, W.T.

    1995-09-01

    The objective of this analysis is to qualitatively rank the Hanford Site high-level waste (HLW) tanks according to their potential public health impacts through various (groundwater, surface water, and atmospheric) exposure pathways. Data from all 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) and 23 of the 28 double-shell tanks (DSTs) in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Program were analyzed for chemical and radiological carcinogenic as well as chemical noncarcinogenic health impacts. The preliminary aggregate score (PAS) ranking system was used to generate information from various release scenarios. Results based on the PAS ranking values should be considered relative health impacts rather than absolute risk values.

  9. SAPPIRE: a prototype mobile tool for pressure ulcer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyeoneui; Chung, Heejoon; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Choi, Jeeyae

    2014-01-01

    Accurate assessment and documentation of skin conditions facilitate communication among care providers and are critical to effective prevention and mitigation of pressure ulcer. We report developing a prototype mobile system called SAPPIRE (Skin Assessment for Pressure Ulcer Prevention, an Integrated Recording Environment) for an android device to assist nurses with skin assessment and documentation at bedside. SAPPIRE demonstrates (1) data documentation conforming to the relevant terminology standards, (2) data exchange using Continuity of Care Records (CCR) standard and (3) smart display of patient data relevant to risk parameters to promote accurate pressure ulcer risk assessment with the Braden scale. Challenges associated standardizing assessment data faced during this development and the approaches that SAPPIRE took to overcome them are described.

  10. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  11. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  12. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  13. PROFILE: Integrating Sustainability and Environmental Impact Assessment

    PubMed

    LAWRENCE

    1997-01-01

    / Environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been identified as an important instrument for facilitating sustainability. However, to do so requires the integration of sustainability into EIA theory and practice. The sustainability concept is a valid and important environmental management perspective. However, many issues and obstacles need to be addressed further if the concept is to be translated into practical strategies. Sustainability can potentially infuse EIA with a clearer sense of direction, an ethical foundation, a mechanism for establishing priorities and assessing choices, and a means of linking EIA to other environmental management instruments. Conceptually, EIA and sustainability can be integrated, but frameworks should be refined, adpated to context, and linked to related initiatives. Sustainability should be explicitly incorporated into EIA legislation, guidelines, and institutional arrangements. An experimental approach to testing, assessing, and sharing experiences is suggested.A framework is first presented that defines and characterizes the sustainability concept. A further framework is then described for integrating sustainability into EIA at the conceptual level. The integration of sustainability and EIA at the regulatory level is next addressed through an overview of sustainability initiatives in EIA requirements in Canada. The Canadian examples include many promising initiatives but these and other experiences will need to be monitored, shared, and integrated into