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Sample records for risk assessment system

  1. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  3. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  4. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  5. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  6. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  7. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  8. Understanding the system in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Craft, R.; Vandewart, R.; Wyss, G.; Funkhouser, D.

    1998-02-01

    In the assessment of a system, understanding the system is central. Even so, most of the current literature takes a narrow view of understanding, making only the catalog of system ``assets`` explicit, while maintaining the balance of the analyst`s understanding inside the analyst`s head. This can lead to problems with non-repeatability and incompleteness of assessment results. This paper introduces the notion of using explicit system models to document the analyst`s understanding of the system and shows that, from these models, standard assessment products, such as fault trees and event trees, can be automatically derived. This paper also presents five ``views`` of a system that can be used to document the analyst`s understanding of the system. These views go well beyond the standard instruction to identify the system`s assets to show that a much richer understanding of the system can be required for effective assessment.

  9. Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

  10. Systems Biology & Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology for risk assessment of environmental chemicals is a national extension of its use in pharmaceutical research. The basis for this is the concept of a key event network that builds on existing mode of action frameworks for risk assessment. The a...

  11. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  12. Challenges in Quantitative Risk Assessments of Space Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardy, Terry L.

    2010-09-01

    Government and commercial organizations throughout the world are developing and operating space launch vehicles and systems for the purposes of furthering exploration, delivering services, and facilitating commercial human spaceflight. The operation of the launch vehicles and space systems involve safety risks to the crew, to flight participants, and to the uninvolved public. Therefore, it is imperative that comprehensive risk assessments be performed to characterize, evaluate, and reduce the risks of these endeavors. A System Safety process is often used to help identify and reduce risks, and that System Safety process typically includes qualitative risk assessments. While qualitative risk assessments are accepted practice, they can include significant uncertainties that lead to an underestimation of that risk and overconfidence in the results. Some factors not often considered in risk assessment include human biases, process failures, and organizational considerations. The failure to understand and address these factors can lead to poor risk decision making that may result in accidents and mishaps. The paper offers recommendations to address the aforementioned factors to improve risk decision making.

  13. [Expert systems in risk assessment. Risk or opportunity?].

    PubMed

    Lohn, H

    1997-06-01

    Experts underwriting systems in the risk selection of individual life insurance have a high place value and are, in future, indispensable in the daily underwriting process. The chance to reduce drastically dual operations enables the insurance companies to make more cost-efficient underwriting decisions. The rapidly advancing technology develops not only new dimensions for individualism and for providing customer service but also for a fast underwriting process which is of great benefit to the insurers who are up against stiff competition. The qualified underwriter and the physician will be relieved of standard work and have more time in investing their knowledge and know-how in the underwriting process which calls for an absolutely individual reflection. New activities are inevitably ahead of this group of persons: Maintenance and attendance of the experts system! A task with which the quality of such a system stands and falls. We are expectant to see what the future has in store for this field.

  14. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, M.D.; Varma, R.; Heger, A.S.

    1996-03-01

    Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.

  15. Power system cascading risk assessment based on complex network theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhuoyang; Hill, David J.; Chen, Guo; Dong, Zhao Yang

    2017-09-01

    When a single failure occurs in a vulnerable part of a power system, this may cause a large area cascading event. Therefore, an advanced method that can assess the risks during cascading events is needed. In this paper, an improved complex network model for power system risk assessment is proposed. Risk is defined by consequence and probability of the failures in this model, which are affected by both power factors and network structure. Compared with existing risk assessment models, the proposed one can evaluate the risk of the system comprehensively during a cascading event by combining the topological and electrical information. A new cascading event simulation module is adopted to identify the power grid cascading chain from a system-level view. In addition, simulations are investigated on the IEEE 14 bus system and IEEE 39 bus system respectively to illustrate the performance of the proposed module. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in a power grid risk assessment during cascading event.

  16. Risk assessment and integrity in system design

    SciTech Connect

    Berg, R.S.; Winter, V.

    1998-03-01

    All systems, regardless of how carefully they have been constructed, suffer failures. This paper focuses on developing a formal understanding of failure with respect to system implementations. Furthermore, the authors would like the system design process to be able to leverage off of this understanding. It is important to deal with failures in a system context, rather than a priori limiting the solution to a particular technology, such as software alone. Their approach is limited to the class of systems that can be modeled by hybrid finite state machines (HFSMs) as described in Winter. The purpose of this paper is to lay out a process, or framework that can aid in identification and characterization of techniques for dealing with the different types of system threats. This framework leads naturally to a taxonomy of technologies and strategies for dealing with the various types of threats. In this process technologies are used to identify a priority list of technical capabilities for dealing with threats. The technologies are prioritized according to their analyzability and predictability. Strategies are then used to identify specific implementations that are best suited to dealing with the threat.

  17. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    SciTech Connect

    Jansma, R.M.; Fletcher, S.K.; Murphy, M.D.; Lim, J.J.; Wyss, G.D.

    1996-07-01

    When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems and address a broad range of risks including security, safety, and correct operation. A unique aspect of this methodology is the use of a modeling technique that captures interactions and tradeoffs among risk mitigators. This paper describes the concepts and components of the methodology and presents its application to example systems.

  18. A Risk Assessment System with Automatic Extraction of Event Types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capet, Philippe; Delavallade, Thomas; Nakamura, Takuya; Sandor, Agnes; Tarsitano, Cedric; Voyatzi, Stavroula

    In this article we describe the joint effort of experts in linguistics, information extraction and risk assessment to integrate EventSpotter, an automatic event extraction engine, into ADAC, an automated early warning system. By detecting as early as possible weak signals of emerging risks ADAC provides a dynamic synthetic picture of situations involving risk. The ADAC system calculates risk on the basis of fuzzy logic rules operated on a template graph whose leaves are event types. EventSpotter is based on a general purpose natural language dependency parser, XIP, enhanced with domain-specific lexical resources (Lexicon-Grammar). Its role is to automatically feed the leaves with input data.

  19. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

  1. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  2. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  3. Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  4. Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

  5. Systems toxicology: from basic research to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sturla, Shana J; Boobis, Alan R; FitzGerald, Rex E; Hoeng, Julia; Kavlock, Robert J; Schirmer, Kristin; Whelan, Maurice; Wilks, Martin F; Peitsch, Manuel C

    2014-03-17

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment.

  6. Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

  7. Development and Validation of an Automated Sepsis Risk Assessment System.

    PubMed

    Back, Ji-Sun; Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-10-01

    Aggressive resuscitation can decrease sepsis mortality, but its success depends on early detection of sepsis. The purpose of this study was to develop and verify an Automated Sepsis Risk Assessment System (Auto-SepRAS), which would automatically assess the sepsis risk of inpatients by applying data mining techniques to electronic health records (EHR) data and provide daily updates. The seven predictors included in the Auto-SepRAS after initial analysis were admission via the emergency department, which had the highest odds ratio; diastolic blood pressure; length of stay; respiratory rate; heart rate; and age. Auto-SepRAS classifies inpatients into three risk levels (high, moderate, and low) based on the predictive values from the sepsis risk-scoring algorithm. The sepsis risk for each patient is presented on the nursing screen of the EHR. The AutoSepRAS was implemented retrospectively in several stages using EHR data and its cut-off scores adjusted. Overall discrimination power was moderate (AUC>.80). The Auto-SepRAS should be verified or updated continuously or intermittently to maintain high predictive performance, but it does not require invasive tests or data input by nurses that would require additional time. Nurses are able to provide patients with nursing care appropriate to their risk levels by using the sepsis risk information provided by the Auto-SepRAS. In particular, with early detection of changes related to sepsis, nurses should be able to help in providing rapid initial resuscitation of high-risk patients. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment and treatment in systemic lupus erythematosus.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Jennifer R; Manzi, Susan

    2009-08-01

    With improved treatment modalities and survival rates, patients with systemic lupus erythematosus live longer and their co-morbidities have become more apparent. Of great concern is cardiovascular disease, which has become a leading cause of death. Lupus patients prematurely develop atherosclerosis, which likely arises from an interaction among traditional cardiovascular risk factors, factors specific to lupus itself and inflammatory mediators. Despite these findings, lupus patients are not always adequately evaluated for traditional risk factors, many of which are treatable and reversible. We propose that lupus patients be assessed and managed regarding cardiovascular risk factors in the same manner as patients with known cardiovascular disease. As a result, preventive cardiology should be considered an essential component of the care for patients with lupus.

  9. Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2002-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine

  10. Implementation Science and the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System

    PubMed Central

    D'Angelo, Denise V.; Harrison, Leslie L.; Taraporewalla, Aspy J.; Shulman, Holly; Smith, Ruben A.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract This paper describes the restructuring of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), a surveillance system of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Division of Reproductive Health conducted for 25 years in collaboration with state and city health departments. With the ultimate goal to better inform health care providers, public health programs, and policy, changes were made to various aspects of PRAMS to enhance its capacity on assessing and monitoring public health interventions and clinical practices in addition to risk behaviors, disease prevalence, comorbidities, and service utilization. Specifically, the three key PRAMS changes identified as necessary and described in this paper are questionnaire revision, launching the web-based centralized PRAMS Integrated Data Collection System, and enhancing the access to PRAMS data through the web query system known as Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's PRAMS Online Data for Epidemiologic Research/PRAMStat. The seven action steps of Knowledge To Action cycle, an illustration of the implementation science process, that reflect the milestones necessary in bridging the knowledge-to-action gap were used as framework for each of these key changes. PMID:25405525

  11. Ecological risk assessment of urban and industrial systems: a review.

    PubMed

    Perrodin, Yves; Boillot, Clotilde; Angerville, Ruth; Donguy, Gilles; Emmanuel, Evens

    2011-11-15

    Numerous ecological risk assessment methodologies have been developed over the last twenty years around the world for evaluating urban and industrial systems and installations, by both the organisations responsible for implementing regulations and the scientific community. Although these methodologies share the general principle underlying their use, they differ widely with respect to the approaches chosen and the resources employed to apply them. Also, they may even have different objectives: prior assessment as part of an impact study before building a new installation, or retrospective assessment, for example, in view to explaining the reasons for an impact recorded or for forecasting additional expected impacts. This article provides a synthesis of the different approaches used around the world for carrying out each of the major steps common to all ecological risk assessment methodologies. The advantages and limitations of these different options are discussed in order to provide elements for formulating any new methodology adapted to a given scenario. To conclude, perspectives for improving the tools required for these methodologies are proposed, and the research works to which priority should be given are identified. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment Developed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2001-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decisionmakers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine.

  13. Development of human epithelial cell systems for radiation risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, C. H.; Craise, L. M.

    1994-01-01

    The most important health effect of space radiation for astronauts is cancer induction. For radiation risk assessment, an understanding of carcinogenic effect of heavy ions in human cells is most essential. In our laboratory, we have successfully developed a human mammary epithelial cell system for studying the neoplastic transformation in vitro. Growth variants were obtained from heavy ion irradiated immortal mammary cell line. These cloned growth variants can grow in regular tissue culture media and maintain anchorage dependent growth and density inhibition property. Upon further irradiation with high-Linear Energy Transfer (LET) radiation, transformed foci were found. Experimental results from these studies suggest that multiexposure of radiation is required to induce neoplastic tranformation of human epithelial cells. This multihits requirement may be due to high genomic stability of human cells. These growth variants can be useful model systems for space flight experiments to determine the carcinogenic effect of space radiation in human epithelial cells.

  14. Development of human epithelial cell systems for radiation risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, C. H.; Craise, L. M.

    1994-01-01

    The most important health effect of space radiation for astronauts is cancer induction. For radiation risk assessment, an understanding of carcinogenic effect of heavy ions in human cells is most essential. In our laboratory, we have successfully developed a human mammary epithelial cell system for studying the neoplastic transformation in vitro. Growth variants were obtained from heavy ion irradiated immortal mammary cell line. These cloned growth variants can grow in regular tissue culture media and maintain anchorage dependent growth and density inhibition property. Upon further irradiation with high-Linear Energy Transfer (LET) radiation, transformed foci were found. Experimental results from these studies suggest that multiexposure of radiation is required to induce neoplastic tranformation of human epithelial cells. This multihits requirement may be due to high genomic stability of human cells. These growth variants can be useful model systems for space flight experiments to determine the carcinogenic effect of space radiation in human epithelial cells.

  15. Development of human epithelial cell systems for radiation risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, C. H.; Craise, L. M.

    1994-10-01

    The most important health effect of space radiation for astronauts is cancer induction. For radiation risk assessment, an understanding of carcinogenic effect of heavy ions in human cells is most essential. In our laboratory, we have successfully developed a human mammary epithelial cell system for studying the neoplastic transformation in vitro. Growth variants were obtained from heavy ion irradiated immortal mammary cell line. These cloned growth variants can grow in regular tissue culture media and maintain anchorage dependent growth and density inhibition property. Upon further irradiation with high-LET radiation, transformed foci were found. Experimental results from these studies suggest that multiexposure of radiation is required to induce neoplastic transformation of human epithelial cells. This multihits requirement may be due to high genomic stability of human cells. These growth variants can be useful model systems for space flight experiments to determine the carcinogenic effect of space radiation in human epithelial cells.

  16. Transportation System Risk Assessment (TSRA) bounding release model

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, J.C.

    1997-10-01

    Transportation System Risk Assessments (TSRAs) document the compliance of proposed shipments of nuclear components with applicable federal regulations as well as the associated risks involved. If a relatively simple bounding analysis can show that the consequences resulting from a worst case scenario are acceptably low, a more time intensive and costly risk analysis can be avoided. Therefore, a bounding release FORTRAN model has been developed to determine the consequences of a worst case non-criticality transportation accident. The consequences of three conservative bounding accidents are determined by the model: (1) direct radiation exposure, (2) airborne release of radiological and/or hazardous solid material, and (3) release of radiological and/or hazardous solid material into a waterway and subsequent uptake by an individual through drinking water. Program output includes the direct radiation exposure (mrem), maximum downwind concentration (mg/m{sup 3}), radiation dose (mrem) received as a result of the postulated airborne release of radiological material, intake (mg) due to inhalation, radiation dose (mrem) received by an individual resulting from a release of radiological material into a waterway and uptake into drinking water, and uptake (mg) due to ingestion. This report documents the methodologies and correlations used in the numerical model to perform the bounding consequence calculations.

  17. Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steinberg, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Rossi, M.; Riccio, G.; Romero, E.; Francisco, D.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and

  18. A TEST OF WATERSHED CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    To facilitate extrapolation among watersheds, ecological risk assessments should be based on a model of underlying factors influencing watershed response, particularly vulnerability. We propose a conceptual model of landscape vulnerability to serve as a basis for watershed classi...

  19. A TEST OF WATERSHED CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    To facilitate extrapolation among watersheds, ecological risk assessments should be based on a model of underlying factors influencing watershed response, particularly vulnerability. We propose a conceptual model of landscape vulnerability to serve as a basis for watershed classi...

  20. Flood risk assessment of fresh water supply systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

    2017-04-01

    Flooding is a common hazard causing damages to people, buildings and infrastructures. Often located in low-lying areas or nearby rivers, water utilities are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Water and debris can inundate the facility, thereby damaging equipment and causing power outages. Such impacts can lead to costly repairs, disruptions of service, hazardous situations for personnel and public health advisories. While flood damage evaluation to buildings and their contents is becoming increasingly available, the quantification of impact on critical infrastructures is less common. In this work, we present the flood risk assessment of a fresh water supply system considering the hazard of a riverine flooding and exposure and vulnerability of the system components (i.e. pipes, junctions, lifting stations etc.). The evaluation of flood impact on the aqueduct network is carried out for flood scenarios with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to determine their residual functionality. Above a selected threshold, the affected elements are considered as failed. The water distribution piping system is modelled through a model based on EPANET designed so as to implement Pressure-Driven Demand (PDD), which is more appropriate when modelling water distribution networks with a high number of offline nodes. Results of piping system model affected by the flood are then compared in a QGIS environment with flood depth to identify the location of service outages and potential risk of contamination. The application to the water supply system of the city of Florence (Italy), serving approximately 385000 inhabitants through 900 km of piping is presented and discussed.

  1. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  2. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  3. Non-GEO mobile satellite systems: A risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaffney, Leah M.; Hulkkower, Neal D.; Klein, Leslie

    1995-01-01

    Since 1991, The MITRE Corporation has performed several independent evaluations of proposed mobile satellite service (MSS) systems that would operate from low Earth orbit (LEO) or medium Earth orbit (MEO), also known as intermediate circular orbit (ICO). This paper introduces a top level Risk Taxonomy tailored to summarize the technical and programmatic risks that MITRE has identified. In general, as risks are identified and addressed, a system's technical characteristics, cost and schedule are affected. This paper traces changes in three key parameters - satellite launch mass, system cost, and system schedule - for each of the five original non-GEO MSS systems for which license applications were made to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) from November 1990 until June 1991. Finally, specific risk areas are identified using the Risk Taxonomy as a framework for discussion.

  4. Decision-Making in Child Protective Services: A Comparison of Selected Risk-Assessment Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doueck, Howard J.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the benefits and shortcomings of three systems for assessing risk factors affecting children: the Illinois CANTS 17B; the Washington Assessment of Risk Matrix; the Child at Risk Field System. Although these systems are used in 23 states, the lack of staff knowledgeable about human development and the uncertain reliability and validity of…

  5. [Assessing the cardiovascular risk in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus].

    PubMed

    Arnaud, L; Mathian, A; Bruckert, E; Amoura, Z

    2014-11-01

    Multiple factors contribute to the increased cardiovascular risk observed in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Among these are the so-called classical cardiovascular risk factors, the disease itself through its activity, treatments, and complications, and the thrombotic risk due to antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Observational studies suggest that most classical cardiovascular risk factors are observed more frequently in SLE patients than in the general population, and that these are insufficient to explain the increased cardiovascular risk observed in most studies. Given this high risk, adequate management of cardiovascular risk factors should be recommended in SLE patients. Paradoxically, the benefit due to the anti-inflammatory properties of treatments such as corticosteroids may exceed, in certain cases, their pro-atherogenic effect. Importantly, the tools that were developed for the estimation of cardiovascular risk at the individual level among the general population cannot be used reliably in SLE patients, as these tools appear to underestimate the true cardiovascular risk. The adequate indications and targets of cardiovascular treatments are therefore not fully known in SLE. A better understanding of the determinants of the cardiovascular risk in SLE will allow the identification and more tailored management of these high-risk patients.

  6. Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Godsell, Aga M.; Go, Susie

    2006-01-01

    A new approach for assessing development risk associated with technology development projects is presented. The method represents technology evolution in terms of sector-specific discrete development stages. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate development probability distributions based on statistical models of the discrete transitions. Development risk is derived from the resulting probability distributions and specific program requirements. Two sample cases are discussed to illustrate the approach, a single rocket engine development and a three-technology space transportation portfolio.

  7. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  8. Exposure as Part of a Systems Approach for Assessing Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is facing large challenges in managing environmental chemicals with increasingly complex requirements for assessing risk that push the limits of our current approaches. To address some of these challenges, the National Research Council (NR...

  9. Exposure as Part of a Systems Approach for Assessing Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is facing large challenges in managing environmental chemicals with increasingly complex requirements for assessing risk that push the limits of our current approaches. To address some of these challenges, the National Research Council (NR...

  10. A risk assessment of two interorganizational clinical information systems.

    PubMed

    Sicotte, Claude; Paré, Guy; Moreault, Marie-Pierre; Paccioni, André

    2006-01-01

    A risk analysis framework was used to examine the implementation barriers that may hamper the successful implementation of interorganizational clinical information systems (ICIS). In terms of study design, an extensive literature review was first performed in order to elaborate a comprehensive model of project risk factors. To test the applicability of the model, we next conducted a longitudinal multiple-case study of two large-scale ICIS demonstration projects carried out in Quebec, Canada. Variations in the levels of several risk dimensions measured throughout the duration of the projects were analyzed to determine their impact on successful implementation. The analysis shows that the proposed framework, composed of five risk dimensions, was very robust, and suitable for conducting a thorough risk analysis. The results also show that there are links between the quality of the risk management and the level of project outcomes. To be successful, it is important that the implementation efforts be distributed proportionally according to the importance of each of the risk factors. Furthermore, because the risks evolve dynamically, there is a need for high responsiveness to emerging implementation problems. Thus, implementation success lies in the ability of the project management team to be aware of and to manage several risk threats simultaneously and coherently since they evolve dynamically through time and interact with one another.

  11. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  12. Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

    2004-06-01

    The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate and transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.

  13. Threshold exceedance risk assessment in complex space-time systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angulo, José M.; Madrid, Ana E.; Romero, José L.

    2015-04-01

    Environmental and health impact risk assessment studies most often involve analysis and characterization of complex spatio-temporal dynamics. Recent developments in this context are addressed, among other objectives, to proper representation of structural heterogeneities, heavy-tailed processes, long-range dependence, intermittency, scaling behavior, etc. Extremal behaviour related to spatial threshold exceedances can be described in terms of geometrical characteristics and distribution patterns of excursion sets, which are the basis for construction of risk-related quantities, such as in the case of evolutionary study of 'hotspots' and long-term indicators of occurrence of extremal episodes. Derivation of flexible techniques, suitable for both the application under general conditions and the interpretation on singularities, is important for practice. Modern risk theory, a developing discipline motivated by the need to establish solid general mathematical-probabilistic foundations for rigorous definition and characterization of risk measures, has led to the introduction of a variety of classes and families, ranging from some conceptually inspired by specific fields of applications, to some intended to provide generality and flexibility to risk analysts under parametric specifications, etc. Quantile-based risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), Average Value-at-Risk (AVaR), and generalization to spectral measures, are of particular interest for assessment under very general conditions. In this work, we study the application of quantile-based risk measures in the spatio-temporal context in relation to certain geometrical characteristics of spatial threshold exceedance sets. In particular, we establish a closed-form relationship between VaR, AVaR, and the expected value of threshold exceedance areas and excess volumes. Conditional simulation allows us, by means of empirical global and local spatial cumulative distributions, the derivation of various statistics of

  14. 12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Systemic risk emergency special assessment to... STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss. To the extent that the assessments provided under § 370.6 or § 370.7, other...

  15. 12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Systemic risk emergency special assessment to... STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss. To the extent that the assessments provided under § 370.6 or § 370.7, other...

  16. 12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Systemic risk emergency special assessment to... STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss. To the extent that the assessments provided under § 370.6 or § 370.7, other...

  17. 12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Systemic risk emergency special assessment to... STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss. To the extent that the assessments provided under § 370.6 or § 370.7, other...

  18. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  19. Humans vs Hardware: The Unique World of NASA Human System Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Overton, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Understanding spaceflight risks to crew health and performance is a crucial aspect of preparing for exploration missions in the future. The research activities of the Human Research Program (HRP) provide substantial evidence to support most risk reduction work. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), acting on behalf of the Office of Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO), assesses these risks and assigns likelihood and consequence ratings to track progress. Unfortunately, many traditional approaches in risk assessment such as those used in the engineering aspects of spaceflight are difficult to apply to human system risks. This presentation discusses the unique aspects of risk assessment from the human system risk perspective and how these limitations are accommodated and addressed in order to ensure that reasonable inputs are provided to support the OCHMO's overall risk posture for manned exploration missions.

  20. Life insurance risk assessment using a fuzzy logic expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carreno, Luis A.; Steel, Roy A.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, we present a knowledge based system that combines fuzzy processing with rule-based processing to form an improved decision aid for evaluating risk for life insurance. This application illustrates the use of FuzzyCLIPS to build a knowledge based decision support system possessing fuzzy components to improve user interactions and KBS performance. The results employing FuzzyCLIPS are compared with the results obtained from the solution of the problem using traditional numerical equations. The design of the fuzzy solution consists of a CLIPS rule-based system for some factors combined with fuzzy logic rules for others. This paper describes the problem, proposes a solution, presents the results, and provides a sample output of the software product.

  1. Life insurance risk assessment using a fuzzy logic expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carreno, Luis A.; Steel, Roy A.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, we present a knowledge based system that combines fuzzy processing with rule-based processing to form an improved decision aid for evaluating risk for life insurance. This application illustrates the use of FuzzyCLIPS to build a knowledge based decision support system possessing fuzzy components to improve user interactions and KBS performance. The results employing FuzzyCLIPS are compared with the results obtained from the solution of the problem using traditional numerical equations. The design of the fuzzy solution consists of a CLIPS rule-based system for some factors combined with fuzzy logic rules for others. This paper describes the problem, proposes a solution, presents the results, and provides a sample output of the software product.

  2. Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thigpen, Eric B.; Stewart, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Fougere, Pete

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

  3. Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

  4. Lessons from risk assessment of countermine robotic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chappell, Isaac; Moses, Franklin L.; Aeillo, Matthew P.

    2011-05-01

    The U.S. Army's desire for increased standoff distances between Soldiers and disguised explosive threats has yielded a complex new technical challenge: augment existing small military robots with state-of-the-art detection and neutralization technology. The magnitude of the challenge is increased by the need for reliable autonomy that allows the robot to operate in different environments (e.g., complex and urban terrains, confined areas, and underground locations). This paper describes lessons learned during efforts in 2008-09 to identify and remediate risks of developing a countermine robot system. It also addresses issues that need attention to achieve total mission success. The work studied three phases of a robotic countermine system: move to a threat area, investigate that area with sensor(s), and neutralize detected threats. Each of these phases is essential, yet attention tends to focus on the third one. The focus of this paper is on risks and lessons pertaining to the first two. What was learned about moving a countermine robot to the area of expected threats? What is necessary for a robot to maneuver sensors and have the maximum probability of detection (Pd) of hazards while minimizing the false alarm rate (FAR)? This paper presents observations during demonstration and test events over the past 2 years. From those observations, lessons learned are summarized as a foundation for realizing a countermine robot and a path forward.

  5. Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-01-01

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

  6. Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

    PubMed

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-04-19

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

  7. Systems Biology and Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment (BioIT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology for risk assessment of environmental chemicals is a natural extension of its use in pharmaceutical research. The basis for this is the concept of a key event network that builds on existing mode of action frameworks for risk assessment. The ap...

  8. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  9. Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

  10. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs.

  11. Analysis of Affordance, Time, and Adaptation in the Assessment of Industrial Control System Cybersecurity Risk.

    PubMed

    Busby, J S; Green, B; Hutchison, D

    2017-01-17

    Industrial control systems increasingly use standard communication protocols and are increasingly connected to public networks-creating substantial cybersecurity risks, especially when used in critical infrastructures such as electricity and water distribution systems. Methods of assessing risk in such systems have recognized for some time the way in which the strategies of potential adversaries and risk managers interact in defining the risk to which such systems are exposed. But it is also important to consider the adaptations of the systems' operators and other legitimate users to risk controls, adaptations that often appear to undermine these controls, or shift the risk from one part of a system to another. Unlike the case with adversarial risk analysis, the adaptations of system users are typically orthogonal to the objective of minimizing or maximizing risk in the system. We argue that this need to analyze potential adaptations to risk controls is true for risk problems more generally, and we develop a framework for incorporating such adaptations into an assessment process. The method is based on the principle of affordances, and we show how this can be incorporated in an iterative procedure based on raising the minimum period of risk materialization above some threshold. We apply the method in a case study of a small European utility provider and discuss the observations arising from this.

  12. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  13. 12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss. 370.8 Section 370.8 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION REGULATIONS AND STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency...

  14. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology

    SciTech Connect

    Mattison, D.R.; Jelovsek, F.R.

    1987-12-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approaches that are formally capable of using biologically relevant information (pharmacokinetics and expert system shells) are explored as aids to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

  15. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

    PubMed Central

    Mattison, D R; Jelovsek, F R

    1987-01-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approaches that are formally capable of using biologically relevant information (pharmacokinetics and expert system shells) are explored as aids to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology. PMID:3447888

  16. [The socio-hygienic monitoring as an integral system for health risk assessment and risk management at the regional level].

    PubMed

    Kuzmin, S V; Gurvich, V B; Dikonskaya, O V; Malykh, O L; Yarushin, S V; Romanov, S V; Kornilkov, A S

    2013-01-01

    The information and analytical framework for the introduction of health risk assessment and risk management methodologies in the Sverdlovsk Region is the system of socio-hygienic monitoring. Techniques of risk management that take into account the choice of most cost-effective and efficient actions for improvement of the sanitary and epidemiologic situation at the level of the region, municipality, or a business entity of the Russian Federation, have been developed and proposed. To assess the efficiency of planning and activities for health risk management common method approaches and economic methods of "cost-effectiveness" and "cost-benefit" analyses provided in method recommendations and introduced in the Russian Federation are applied.

  17. DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

    PubMed

    Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

    2014-03-25

    Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry.

  18. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-04-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) ``toolkit`` for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ``long reach arm``) and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE`s Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions.

  19. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  20. An Educational System to Help Students Assess Website Features and Identify High-Risk Websites

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kajiyama, Tomoko; Echizen, Isao

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective educational system to help students assess Web site risk by providing an environment in which students can better understand a Web site's features and determine the risks of accessing the Web site for themselves. Design/methodology/approach: The authors have enhanced a prototype…

  1. An Educational System to Help Students Assess Website Features and Identify High-Risk Websites

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kajiyama, Tomoko; Echizen, Isao

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective educational system to help students assess Web site risk by providing an environment in which students can better understand a Web site's features and determine the risks of accessing the Web site for themselves. Design/methodology/approach: The authors have enhanced a prototype…

  2. Construction of a risk assessment system for chemical residues in agricultural products.

    PubMed

    Choi, Shinai; Hong, Jiyeon; Lee, Dayeon; Paik, Minkyoung

    2014-01-01

    Continuous monitoring of chemical residues in agricultural and food products has been performed by various government bodies in South Korea. These bodies have made attempts to systematically manage this information by creating a monitoring database system as well as a system based on these data with which to assess the health risk of chemical residues in agricultural products. Meanwhile, a database system is being constructed consisting of information about monitoring and, following this, a demand for convenience has led to the need for an evaluation tool to be constructed with the data processing system. Also, in order to create a systematic and effective tool for the risk assessment of chemical residues in foods and agricultural products, various evaluation models are being developed, both domestically and abroad. Overseas, systems such as Dietary Exposure Evaluation Model: Food Commodity Intake Database and Cumulative and Aggregate Risk Evaluation System are being used; these use the US Environmental Protection Agency as a focus, while the EU has developed Pesticide Residue Intake Model for assessments of pesticide exposure through food intake. Following this, the National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS) created the Agricultural Products Risk Assessment System (APRAS) which supports the use and storage of monitoring information and risk assessments. APRAS efficiently manages the monitoring data produced by NAAS and creates an extraction feature included in the database system. Also, the database system in APRAS consists of a monitoring database system held by the NAAS and food consumption database system. Food consumption data is based on Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This system is aimed at exposure and risk assessments for chemical residues in agricultural products with regards to different exposure scenarios.

  3. Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guarro, Sergio B.

    2010-01-01

    This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

  4. Systems Biology and Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology approaches has greatly increased in the past decade largely as a consequence of the human genome project and technological advances in genomics and proteomics. Systems approaches have been used in the medical & pharmaceutical realm for diagnost...

  5. Systems Biology and Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology has increased in the past decade largely as a consequence of the human genome project and technological advances in genomics and proteomics. Systems approaches have been used in the medical & pharmaceutical realm for diagnostic purposes and targ...

  6. System Quality Risk Assessment: Applications and Lessons Learned

    SciTech Connect

    Gelston, Gariann M.; Smith, Michael A.; Schwartz, Deborah S.

    2006-12-05

    News Releases Court Audits When does research become a verifiable product? When do the tools used to solve a problem become part of the research "system" and thus fall under the quality standard requirements? What should/is the system be used for? Research Typically Starts Small

  7. Systems Biology and Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology approaches has greatly increased in the past decade largely as a consequence of the human genome project and technological advances in genomics and proteomics. Systems approaches have been used in the medical & pharmaceutical realm for diagnost...

  8. Systems Biology and Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology has increased in the past decade largely as a consequence of the human genome project and technological advances in genomics and proteomics. Systems approaches have been used in the medical & pharmaceutical realm for diagnostic purposes and targ...

  9. System Risk Assessment and Allocation in Conceptual Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Smith, Natasha L.; Zang, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    As aerospace systems continue to evolve in addressing newer challenges in air and space transportation, there exists a heightened priority for significant improvement in system performance, cost effectiveness, reliability, and safety. Tools, which synthesize multidisciplinary integration, probabilistic analysis, and optimization, are needed to facilitate design decisions allowing trade-offs between cost and reliability. This study investigates tools for probabilistic analysis and probabilistic optimization in the multidisciplinary design of aerospace systems. A probabilistic optimization methodology is demonstrated for the low-fidelity design of a reusable launch vehicle at two levels, a global geometry design and a local tank design. Probabilistic analysis is performed on a high fidelity analysis of a Navy missile system. Furthermore, decoupling strategies are introduced to reduce the computational effort required for multidisciplinary systems with feedback coupling.

  10. Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

    2008-11-15

    In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculations were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm.

  11. A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

    PubMed

    Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

    2016-01-01

    Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Validating the Use of pPerformance Risk Indices for System-Level Risk and Maturity Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holloman, Sherrica S.

    With pressure on the U.S. Defense Acquisition System (DAS) to reduce cost overruns and schedule delays, system engineers' performance is only as good as their tools. Recent literature details a need for 1) objective, analytical risk quantification methodologies over traditional subjective qualitative methods -- such as, expert judgment, and 2) mathematically rigorous system-level maturity assessments. The Mahafza, Componation, and Tippett (2005) Technology Performance Risk Index (TPRI) ties the assessment of technical performance to the quantification of risk of unmet performance; however, it is structured for component- level data as input. This study's aim is to establish a modified TPRI with systems-level data as model input, and then validate the modified index with actual system-level data from the Department of Defense's (DoD) Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs). This work's contribution is the establishment and validation of the System-level Performance Risk Index (SPRI). With the introduction of the SPRI, system-level metrics are better aligned, allowing for better assessment, tradeoff and balance of time, performance and cost constraints. This will allow system engineers and program managers to ultimately make better-informed system-level technical decisions throughout the development phase.

  13. Integrated risk assessment and screening analysis of drinking water safety of a conventional water supply system.

    PubMed

    Sun, F; Chen, J; Tong, Q; Zeng, S

    2007-01-01

    Management of drinking water safety is changing towards an integrated risk assessment and risk management approach that includes all processes in a water supply system from catchment to consumers. However, given the large number of water supply systems in China and the cost of implementing such a risk assessment procedure, there is a necessity to first conduct a strategic screening analysis at a national level. An integrated methodology of risk assessment and screening analysis is thus proposed to evaluate drinking water safety of a conventional water supply system. The violation probability, indicating drinking water safety, is estimated at different locations of a water supply system in terms of permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, turbidity, residual chlorine and trihalomethanes. Critical parameters with respect to drinking water safety are then identified, based on which an index system is developed to prioritize conventional water supply systems in implementing a detailed risk assessment procedure. The evaluation results are represented as graphic check matrices for the concerned hazards in drinking water, from which the vulnerability of a conventional water supply system is characterized.

  14. An Early Warning System for Loan Risk Assessment Based on Rare Event Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Hong; Qiu, Yue; Wu, Yueqin

    System simulation is one of important tool for risk assessment. In this paper, a new method is presented to deal with credit risk assessment problems for commercial banks based on rare event simulation. The failure probability of repaying loans of listed company is taken as the criterion to measure the level of credit risk. The rare-event concept is adopted to construct the model of credit risk identification in commercial banks, and cross-entropy scheme is designed to implement the rare event simulation, based on which the loss probability can be assessed. Numerical experiments have shown that the method has a strong capability to identify the credit risk for commercial banks and offers a good tool for early warning.

  15. How do dental students determine patients' caries risk level using the Caries Management By Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) system?

    PubMed

    Doméjean, Sophie; Léger, Stéphanie; Rechmann, Peter; White, Joel M; Featherstone, John D B

    2015-03-01

    Research has demonstrated the validation of specific caries risk assessment (CRA) systems, but little is known about how dental practitioners assign a caries risk level to their patients. The aim of this study was to explore dental students' decision making in caries risk assignment when using the Caries Management By Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) system. Multiple correspondence analysis and chi-squared automated interaction detector analysis were performed on data collected retrospectively for a period of six years (2003-09) at the University of California, San Francisco predoctoral dental clinic. The study population consisted of 12,952 patients from six years of age through adult who received a baseline CRA during the period, were new to CAMBRA, and had not received any prior CAMBRA recommendations. The results showed variation in decision making and risk level assignment, illustrated by the range of percentages for the three scores (low, moderate, and high/extreme caries risk) when CRA was assigned for the first time. For those first-time CRAs, decision making was mainly based on four factors: cavities or caries lesions into dentin on radiograph, restorations during the last three years due to caries, visible heavy plaque, and interproximal lesions into enamel (by radiographs). This study's findings provide important data regarding one group of CAMBRA users and thus contribute to the development of knowledge about the implementation of caries risk assessment in contemporary dental practice.

  16. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  17. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  18. The Application of Integrated Knowledge-based Systems for the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, Karin C.; Ly, Bebe; Webster, Laurie; Verlander, James; Taylor, Gerald R.; Riley, Gary; Culbert, Chris; Holden, Tina; Rudisill, Marianne

    1993-01-01

    One of NASA's goals for long duration space flight is to maintain acceptable levels of crew health, safety, and performance. One way of meeting this goal is through the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN), an integrated network of both human and computer elements. The BRAIN will function as an advisor to flight surgeons by assessing the risk of in-flight biomedical problems and recommending appropriate countermeasures. This paper describes the joint effort among various NASA elements to develop BRAIN and an Infectious Disease Risk Assessment (IDRA) prototype. The implementation of this effort addresses the technological aspects of the following: (1) knowledge acquisition; (2) integration of IDRA components; (3) use of expert systems to automate the biomedical prediction process; (4) development of a user-friendly interface; and (5) integration of the IDRA prototype and Exercise Countermeasures Intelligent System (ExerCISys). Because the C Language, CLIPS (the C Language Integrated Production System), and the X-Window System were portable and easily integrated, they were chosen as the tools for the initial IDRA prototype. The feasibility was tested by developing an IDRA prototype that predicts the individual risk of influenza. The application of knowledge-based systems to risk assessment is of great market value to the medical technology industry.

  19. Industrial Control Systems/SCADA systems risk assessment in the energy sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falodun, Babatunde

    The energy sector is one of the most critical components of our national infrastructure. It not only provides the electrical power and petroleum required to run day-to-day operations and mechanisms in society, it's also an important element that directly impacts the economy with regard to growth and stability. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) /Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems (SCADA) are computerized mechanisms, they are both software and hardware that are used to control real time processes and operations in power plants and oil production facilities. A significant attack on these control systems that leads to widespread disruption of energy could result in catastrophic consequences for any major city and even the nation. This research paper explores cyber threats and vulnerabilities faced by ICS/SCADA systems in the energy sector and also highlights possible outcomes of a successful breach. Furthermore, the research underscores mitigation strategies that could be used to prevent and respond to an attack. Keywords: Cybersecurity, SCADA, Cyber Attacks, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Risk Assessment, Dr. Albert Orbinati.

  20. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  1. Fuzzy-probabilistic multi agent system for breast cancer risk assessment and insurance premium assignment.

    PubMed

    Tatari, Farzaneh; Akbarzadeh-T, Mohammad-R; Sabahi, Ahmad

    2012-12-01

    In this paper, we present an agent-based system for distributed risk assessment of breast cancer development employing fuzzy and probabilistic computing. The proposed fuzzy multi agent system consists of multiple fuzzy agents that benefit from fuzzy set theory to demonstrate their soft information (linguistic information). Fuzzy risk assessment is quantified by two linguistic variables of high and low. Through fuzzy computations, the multi agent system computes the fuzzy probabilities of breast cancer development based on various risk factors. By such ranking of high risk and low risk fuzzy probabilities, the multi agent system (MAS) decides whether the risk of breast cancer development is high or low. This information is then fed into an insurance premium adjuster in order to provide preventive decision making as well as to make appropriate adjustment of insurance premium and risk. This final step of insurance analysis also provides a numeric measure to demonstrate the utility of the approach. Furthermore, actual data are gathered from two hospitals in Mashhad during 1 year. The results are then compared with a fuzzy distributed approach.

  2. Spatio-temporal assessment of food safety risks in Canadian food distribution systems using GIS.

    PubMed

    Hashemi Beni, Leila; Villeneuve, Sébastien; LeBlanc, Denyse I; Côté, Kevin; Fazil, Aamir; Otten, Ainsley; McKellar, Robin; Delaquis, Pascal

    2012-09-01

    While the value of geographic information systems (GIS) is widely applied in public health there have been comparatively few examples of applications that extend to the assessment of risks in food distribution systems. GIS can provide decision makers with strong computing platforms for spatial data management, integration, analysis, querying and visualization. The present report addresses some spatio-analyses in a complex food distribution system and defines influence areas as travel time zones generated through road network analysis on a national scale rather than on a community scale. In addition, a dynamic risk index is defined to translate a contamination event into a public health risk as time progresses. More specifically, in this research, GIS is used to map the Canadian produce distribution system, analyze accessibility to contaminated product by consumers, and estimate the level of risk associated with a contamination event over time, as illustrated in a scenario.

  3. The Application of Urban System Analysis To The Seismic Risk Assessment of Barcelona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irizarry, J.; Marturia, J.; Mena, U.

    The Urban System Analysis methodology developed by an international team directed by the BRGM (France) within the GEMITIS research program (1996-1999) consists of a global and integrated risk reduction strategy in order to improve the risk assessment effectiveness through the use of a geographical information system (GIS). A typical seismic risk analysis evaluates only the direct impacts of the earthquake, but gives few information about how to improve preventive effectiveness because it does not provide any data about the indirect consequences of an earthquake. This new methodology proposes to complete the scenario generation process by focusing physical vulnerability assessment on the essential elements for urban functioning. Besides it gives rational bases for the definition of appropriate risk management and preventive action plans. This study presents a first stage of the application of the Urban System Analysis method to the city of Barcelona. The elements at risk in the city like the residential, commercial, administrative, and industrials areas are identified and analyzed to define the weak points within its urban system. Then the most critical elements within the city's urban system will be identified to establish priorities for risk managements plans in the city.

  4. Extravehicular Activity Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview for Thermal Protection System Repair on the Hubble Space Telescope Servicing Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigler, Mark; Canga, Michael A.; Duncan, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The Shuttle Program initiated an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assess the risks associated with performing a Shuttle Thermal Protection System (TPS) repair during the Space Transportation System (STS)-125 Hubble repair mission as part of risk trades between TPS repair and crew rescue.

  5. Korean Ministry of Environment's web-based visual consumer product exposure and risk assessment system (COPER).

    PubMed

    Lee, Hunjoo; Lee, Kiyoung; Park, Ji Young; Min, Sung-Gi

    2017-05-01

    With support from the Korean Ministry of the Environment (ME), our interdisciplinary research staff developed the COnsumer Product Exposure and Risk assessment system (COPER). This system includes various databases and features that enable the calculation of exposure and determination of risk caused by consumer products use. COPER is divided into three tiers: the integrated database layer (IDL), the domain specific service layer (DSSL), and the exposure and risk assessment layer (ERAL). IDL is organized by the form of the raw data (mostly non-aggregated data) and includes four sub-databases: a toxicity profile, an inventory of Korean consumer products, the weight fractions of chemical substances in the consumer products determined by chemical analysis and national representative exposure factors. DSSL provides web-based information services corresponding to each database within IDL. Finally, ERAL enables risk assessors to perform various exposure and risk assessments, including exposure scenario design via either inhalation or dermal contact by using or organizing each database in an intuitive manner. This paper outlines the overall architecture of the system and highlights some of the unique features of COPER based on visual and dynamic rendering engine for exposure assessment model on web.

  6. Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwag, Shinyoung

    Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or

  7. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  8. A Model-based Framework for Risk Assessment in Human-Computer Controlled Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hatanaka, Iwao

    2000-01-01

    The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems. This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions. Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

  9. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R. G.; Jusko, M. J.; Clemmons, M. A.

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  10. Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the release of the final report, Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology. This report describes new approaches that are faster, less resource intensive, and more robust that can help ...

  11. Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the release of the final report, Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology. This report describes new approaches that are faster, less resource intensive, and more robust that can help ...

  12. Monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in irrigation systems in Debra Zeit, Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Teklu, Berhan M; Adriaanse, Paulien I; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2016-10-01

    Since Ethiopia is going through a rapid transformation of its agricultural sector, we assessed the human health and environmental risks due to the past use of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) as well as the risks of the current pesticide use by farmers. A monitoring programme and risk assessment was carried out for the Wedecha-Belbela irrigation system in the Debra Zeit area. The Wedecha and Belbela rivers and adjacent temporary ponds were sampled and examined for the presence of OCPs between August and October 2014, while data on the current pesticide use by small- and large-scale farmers was collected by interviews. The usage patterns were evaluated for risks of using the river or temporary ponds as source of drinking water and for risks for the aquatic ecosystems in the river and ponds with the aid of the PRIMET_Registration_Ethiopa_1.1 model. The samples were collected in five sampling periods, and results indicate that most of the 18 target OCPs were not detected above the detection limit, while g-chlordane may pose chronic risks when surface water is used as drinking water. Endosulfan and heptachlor pose risks to aquatic organisms at second-tier level, while for heptachlor-epoxide B, g-chlordane and b-BHC only risks could be determined at the first tier due to a lack of data. For all nine pesticides used by small-scale farmers the calculated acute risks to humans were low. Second tier risk assessment for the aquatic ecosystem indicated that lambda-cyhalothrin, endosulfan, profenofos, and diazinon may pose high risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. On-site wastewater management system design and landslide risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Whitehead, J H; Leventhal, A

    2005-01-01

    On-site wastewater management system design and performance is significant in assessing landslide risk in areas with potential for slope instability. Much of the development in Pittwater, NSW, local government area is on steep coastal land which has a history of slope instability. Concern over cases of poorly performing or failing on-site wastewater systems and the recognition that these and newly designed systems could be contributory to slope instability has been a factor in Pittwater Council, NSW, requiring that landslide risk assessment be undertaken for new and amended on-site wastewater management systems in potentially unstable areas. This paper describes the wastewater management system design and landslide risk assessment undertaken at Pittwater Youth Hostel in accordance with the Australian Geomechanics Society's Geotechnical Risk Management procedure to comply with the Pittwater Policy. The work completed illustrates both necessary and effective interaction of the wastewater and geotechnical professions to achieve a successful outcome for the client. It is likely that this professional interaction will be increasingly common along the NSW coast and elsewhere.

  14. Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, James T.

    2003-01-01

    Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.

  15. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  16. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  17. Development of safety concept of electric wheelchair driving support system based on assessment of risk.

    PubMed

    Kurozumi, Ryota; Yamamoto, Toru; Fujisawa, Shoichiro

    2015-01-01

    In this research, we pay attention to the electric wheelchair driving support. We look at the functional safety of the electric wheelchair. Based on intrinsically-safe electric wheelchair, we add driving support system to increase functional safety. The driving support system processes the environmental information sensor data including the 3D laser Range scanner and biological monitoring sensor data including electrooculogram, and assists avoidance of dangerous objects. We have developed safety concept that based on assessment of risk.

  18. Risk assessment in mental health: introducing a traffic light system in a community mental health team.

    PubMed

    Croucher, S; Williamson, Graham R

    2013-01-01

    To reports a study in which action research approach was utilised to introduce a new system of risk assessment, based on traffic lights, into a community mental health team. Risk management is a serious concern in community mental healthcare where there is less direct, real-time supervision of clients than in other settings, and because inadequate management of risk can have fatal consequences when service users are a risk to themselves and/or others. An action research design was undertaken, using three phases of Look, Think and Act. Data were collected between January and March of 2012. In the action research phases, qualitative data were collected in focus groups with the team's multi-disciplinary mental health professionals. Data were transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically, which involved agreement of themes and interpretations by two researchers. The Look, Think and Act phases guided the development of the project; team members worked collaboratively on the traffic light system, implemented and evaluated it. Themes were constructed that were discussed across the focus groups. These themes were: Ease of use; Risk identification and management; Legal status; Different teams' views of risk; Post-implementation evaluation. Action research has been used to implement change in mental health risk management. Others internationally would benefit from considering a Traffic Light System, and in using action research to implement it.

  19. The application of integrated knowledge-based systems for the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, Karin C.; Ly, Bebe; Webster, Laurie; Verlander, James; Taylor, Gerald R.; Riley, Gary; Culbert, Chris

    1992-01-01

    One of NASA's goals for long duration space flight is to maintain acceptable levels of crew health, safety, and performance. One way of meeting this goal is through BRAIN, an integrated network of both human and computer elements. BRAIN will function as an advisor to mission managers by assessing the risk of inflight biomedical problems and recommending appropriate countermeasures. Described here is a joint effort among various NASA elements to develop BRAIN and the Infectious Disease Risk Assessment (IDRA) prototype. The implementation of this effort addresses the technological aspects of knowledge acquisition, integration of IDRA components, the use of expert systems to automate the biomedical prediction process, development of a user friendly interface, and integration of IDRA and ExerCISys systems. Because C language, CLIPS and the X-Window System are portable and easily integrated, they were chosen ss the tools for the initial IDRA prototype.

  20. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

    SciTech Connect

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been modified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/sup 3/ of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. 5 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  2. Weed Risk Assessment for Aquatic Plants: Modification of a New Zealand System for the United States

    PubMed Central

    Gordon, Doria R.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Jerde, Christopher L.; Chadderton, W. Lindsay; Keller, Reuben P.; Champion, Paul D.

    2012-01-01

    We tested the accuracy of an invasive aquatic plant risk assessment system in the United States that we modified from a system originally developed by New Zealand’s Biosecurity Program. The US system is comprised of 38 questions that address biological, historical, and environmental tolerance traits. Values associated with each response are summed to produce a total score for each species that indicates its risk of invasion. To calibrate and test this risk assessment, we identified 39 aquatic plant species that are major invaders in the continental US, 31 species that have naturalized but have no documented impacts (minor invaders), and 60 that have been introduced but have not established. These species represent 55 families and span all aquatic plant growth forms. We found sufficient information to assess all but three of these species. When the results are compared to the known invasiveness of the species, major invaders are distinguished from minor and non-invaders with 91% accuracy. Using this approach, the US aquatic weed risk assessment correctly identifies major invaders 85%, and non-invaders 98%, of the time. Model validation using an additional 10 non-invaders and 10 invaders resulted in 100% accuracy for the former, and 80% accuracy for the latter group. Accuracy was further improved to an average of 91% for all groups when the 17% of species with scores of 31–39 required further evaluation prior to risk classification. The high accuracy with which we can distinguish non-invaders from harmful invaders suggests that this tool provides a feasible, pro-active system for pre-import screening of aquatic plants in the US, and may have additional utility for prioritizing management efforts of established species. PMID:22808088

  3. Weed risk assessment for aquatic plants: modification of a New Zealand system for the United States.

    PubMed

    Gordon, Doria R; Gantz, Crysta A; Jerde, Christopher L; Chadderton, W Lindsay; Keller, Reuben P; Champion, Paul D

    2012-01-01

    We tested the accuracy of an invasive aquatic plant risk assessment system in the United States that we modified from a system originally developed by New Zealand's Biosecurity Program. The US system is comprised of 38 questions that address biological, historical, and environmental tolerance traits. Values associated with each response are summed to produce a total score for each species that indicates its risk of invasion. To calibrate and test this risk assessment, we identified 39 aquatic plant species that are major invaders in the continental US, 31 species that have naturalized but have no documented impacts (minor invaders), and 60 that have been introduced but have not established. These species represent 55 families and span all aquatic plant growth forms. We found sufficient information to assess all but three of these species. When the results are compared to the known invasiveness of the species, major invaders are distinguished from minor and non-invaders with 91% accuracy. Using this approach, the US aquatic weed risk assessment correctly identifies major invaders 85%, and non-invaders 98%, of the time. Model validation using an additional 10 non-invaders and 10 invaders resulted in 100% accuracy for the former, and 80% accuracy for the latter group. Accuracy was further improved to an average of 91% for all groups when the 17% of species with scores of 31-39 required further evaluation prior to risk classification. The high accuracy with which we can distinguish non-invaders from harmful invaders suggests that this tool provides a feasible, pro-active system for pre-import screening of aquatic plants in the US, and may have additional utility for prioritizing management efforts of established species.

  4. Risk Assessment and Control through Countermeasure System Iplementation for Long-term Crew Exposure to Microgravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gernand, Jeremy M.

    2004-01-01

    Experience with the International Space Station (ISS) program demonstrates the degree to which engineering design and operational solutions must protect crewmembers from health risks due to long-term exposure to the microgravity environment. Risks to safety and health due to degradation in the microgravity environment include crew inability to complete emergency or nominal activities, increased risk of injury, and inability to complete safe return to the ground due to reduced strength or embrittled bones. These risks without controls slowly increase in probability for the length of the mission and become more significant for increasing mission durations. Countermeasures to microgravity include hardware systems that place a crewmember s body under elevated stress to produce an effect similar to daily exposure to gravity. The ISS countermeasure system is predominately composed of customized exercise machines. Historical treatment of microgravity countermeasure systems as medical research experiments unintentionally reduced the foreseen importance and therefore the capability of the systems to function in a long-term operational role. Long-term hazardous effects and steadily increasing operational risks due to non-functional countermeasure equipment require a more rigorous design approach and incorporation of redundancy into seemingly non- mission-critical hardware systems. Variations in the rate of health degradation and responsiveness to countermeasures among the crew population drastically increase the challenge for design requirements development and verification of the appropriate risk control strategy. The long-term nature of the hazards and severe limits on logistical re-supply mass, volume and frequency complicates assessment of hardware availability and verification of an adequate maintenance and sparing plan. Design achievement of medically defined performance requirements by microgravity countermeasure systems and incorporation of adequate failure tolerance

  5. A framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment of systemic risks.

    PubMed

    Briggs, David J

    2008-11-27

    Traditional methods of risk assessment have provided good service in support of policy, mainly in relation to standard setting and regulation of hazardous chemicals or practices. In recent years, however, it has become apparent that many of the risks facing society are systemic in nature - complex risks, set within wider social, economic and environmental contexts. Reflecting this, policy-making too has become more wide-ranging in scope, more collaborative and more precautionary in approach. In order to inform such policies, more integrated methods of assessment are needed. Based on work undertaken in two large EU-funded projects (INTARESE and HEIMTSA), this paper reviews the range of approaches to assessment now in used, proposes a framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment (both as a basis for bringing together and choosing between different methods of assessment, and extending these to more complex problems), and discusses some of the challenges involved in conducting integrated assessments to support policy. Integrated environmental health impact assessment is defined as a means of assessing health-related problems deriving from the environment, and health-related impacts of policies and other interventions that affect the environment, in ways that take account of the complexities, interdependencies and uncertainties of the real world. As such, it depends heavily on how issues are selected and framed, and implies the involvement of stakeholders both in issue-framing and design of the assessment, and to help interpret and evaluate the results. It is also a comparative process, which involves evaluating and comparing different scenarios. It consequently requires the ability to model the way in which the influences of exogenous factors, such as policies or other interventions, feed through the environment to affect health. Major challenges thus arise. Chief amongst these are the difficulties in ensuring effective stakeholder participation, in

  6. Landslide hazard and risk assessment for Ambon city using landslide inventory and geographic information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souisa, Matheus; Hendrajaya, Lilik; Handayani, Gunawan

    2016-08-01

    Ambon Island is a volcanic islands arc and included in the territory of the archipelago of small islands are associated with subduction zones that have a degree of high vulnerability to natural disasters, such as erosion and landslides on the slopes of certain conditions. Landslides that occur various in the city of Ambon, usually occurs during the rainy season so that the impacts that occur not only occurs on site but also off site with amount of large sedimentation. This paper presents the application of digital image analysis techniques and tools Geographic Information Systems to describe the degree of landslide hazard and risk areas in locations Ambon City, Moluccas. The cause of the landslide is analyzed through various thematic layers attribute data for the study area. Landslide hazard zonation assessment is done by using historical data, while the landslide risk analysis is done by using the results of landslide hazard assessment and socioeconomic factors by using geospatial models. The risk assessment of landslides can be used to estimate the risk to the population, property and infrastructure. The study results in the form of a map of landslide hazard and the risk of landslides that act to support urban spatial planning based on disaster mitigation.

  7. Core state preconception health indicators - pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system and behavioral risk factor surveillance system, 2009.

    PubMed

    Robbins, Cheryl L; Zapata, Lauren B; Farr, Sherry L; Kroelinger, Charlan D; Morrow, Brian; Ahluwalia, Indu; D'Angelo, Denise V; Barradas, Danielle; Cox, Shanna; Goodman, David; Williams, Letitia; Grigorescu, Violanda; Barfield, Wanda D

    2014-04-25

    Promoting preconception health can potentially improve women's health and pregnancy outcomes. Evidence-based interventions exist to reduce many maternal behaviors and chronic conditions that are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes such as tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate folic acid intake, obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. The 2006 national recommendations to improve preconception health included monitoring improvements in preconception health by maximizing public health surveillance (CDC. Recommendations to improve preconception health and health care-United States: a report of the CDC/ATSDR Preconception Care Work Group and the Select Panel on Preconception Care. MMWR 2006;55[No. RR-6]). 2009 for 38 indicators; 2008 for one indicator. DESCRIPTION OF SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS: The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) is an ongoing state- and population-based surveillance system designed to monitor selected self-reported maternal behaviors, conditions, and experiences that occur shortly before, during, and after pregnancy among women who deliver live-born infants. The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is an ongoing state-based telephone survey of noninstitutionalized adults aged ≥18 years in the United States that collects state-level data on health-related risk behaviors, chronic conditions, and preventive health services. This surveillance summary includes PRAMS data from 29 reporting areas (n = 40,388 respondents) and BRFSS data from 51 reporting areas (n = 62,875 respondents) for nonpregnant women of reproductive age (aged 18-44 years). To establish a comprehensive, nationally recognized set of indicators to be used for monitoring, evaluation, and response, a volunteer group of policy and program leaders and epidemiologists identified 45 core state preconception health indicators, of which 41 rely on PRAMS or BRFSS as data sources. This report includes 39 of the 41 core state preconception health indicators for which

  8. Effectiveness of computerized risk assessment system on enhancing workers' occupational health and attitudes towards occupational health.

    PubMed

    Ho, Wan-Yi; Sung, Connie Y Y; Yu, Qiu-Hua; Chan, Chetwyn C H

    2014-01-01

    Efforts have been paid to lower the health risks associated with use of computers at the workplace. Computerized risk assessment systems are available in the market for adoption by companies. The Display Screen Equipment Risk Assessment and Management System was designed for conducting risk assessment and providing intelligent-driven solutions for DSE-related occupational health problems. This report summarizes two consecutive research work conducted on evaluating its effect in reducing body discomfort and mental fatigue, and enhancing sedentary workers' occupational health. Convenience sampling was adopted to recruit participants (111 participants for Study 1 and 75 participants for Study 2 who were randomly assigned to an immediate or a delayed intervention group. The intervention was using DSE RAM System to perform a risk assessment followed by an immediate modification of participant's workstation based on the recommendations generated by the System. Face to face interview was conducted and participants completed three sets of questionnaires right before the assessment and two weeks after the intervention. The results of Study 1 revealed that the DSE RAM System was effective for alleviating the discomfort and fatigue levels by rectifying the workstation-worker match. These mismatches were identified to be the heights of monitor, keyboard and chair with the workers. The results of Study 2 indicate that the System was specific for promoting participants to take more frequent rest breaks (OR: 3.65) and pay more attention to occupational safety and health information (OR: 3.90). In particular, the take frequent rest breaks behavior was found to predict decrease in discomfort in the eyes and mental fatigue (lack of energy). Nevertheless, there was no strong evidence on the use of the System can lead to immediate attitudinal changes towards occupational health and safety. The findings support the notion that workers' participation and integration of ergonomics into

  9. Introduction to CRRIS: a computerized radiological risk investigation system for assessing atmospheric releases of radionuclides

    SciTech Connect

    Baes, C.F. III; Miller, C.W.; Kocher, D.C.; Sjoreen, A.L.; Murphy, B.D.

    1985-08-01

    The CRRIS is a Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System consisting of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may also be used alone for various assessment applications. Radionuclides are handled by the CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both the released nuclides and decay products that grow in during environmental transport. The CRRIS is not designed to simulate short-term effects. 51 refs.

  10. Ecological Risk Assessment of EDTA-Assisted Phytoremediation of Cd Under Different Cultivation Systems.

    PubMed

    Luo, Jie; Qi, Shihua; Gu, X W Sophie; Hou, Tao; Lin, Lihong

    2016-02-01

    A long-term field experiment was designed to assess remediation efficiency and ecological risk of phytoremediation of Cd under different cultivation systems with or without ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid (EDTA). EDTA can significantly improve the phytoremediation effectiveness of a historically polluted e-waste dismantling site through enhancing Cd uptake by plants in all cultivation systems along with higher ecological risks to different receptors especially in the presence of Cicer arietinum (chickpea). Moisture content at each layer of soil profile under Eucalyptus globules L. cultivated sites was consistently lower than under chickpea monoculture as a result of E. globules' high water use efficiency. Besides low soil moisture, E. globules can intercept more Cd-rich leachate than chickpea regardless of the presence of EDTA. E. globules could be used for Cd phytoremediation as they can take full advantage of EDTA and decrease ecological risk caused by the chelator.

  11. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  12. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

  13. Risk and systems theory.

    PubMed

    Hatfield, Adam J; Hipel, Keith W

    2002-12-01

    The last few decades have seen increasingly widespread use of risk assessment and management techniques as aids in making complex decisions. However, despite the progress that has been made in risk science, there still remain numerous examples of risk-based decisions and conclusions that have caused great controversy. In particular, there is a great deal of debate surrounding risk assessment: the role of values and ethics and other extra-scientific factors, the efficacy of quantitative versus qualitative analysis, and the role of uncertainty and incomplete information. Many of the epistemological and methodological issues confronting risk assessment have been explored in general systems theory, where techniques exist to manage such issues. However, the use of systems theory and systems analysis tools is still not widespread in risk management. This article builds on the Alachlor risk assessment case study of Brunk, Haworth, and Lee to present a systems-based view of the risk assessment process. The details of the case study are reviewed and the authors' original conclusions regarding the effects of extra-scientific factors on risk assessment are discussed. Concepts from systems theory are introduced to provide a mechanism with which to illustrate these extra-scientific effects The role of a systems study within a risk assessment is explained, resulting in an improved view of the problem formulation process The consequences regarding the definition of risk and its role in decision making are then explored.

  14. [Establishment and validation of an indicator system of risk assessment for mechanical cuts].

    PubMed

    Fu, Chuandong; Tang, Dan; Wu, Xin; Liao, Zhean; Liu, Huixia; He, Yonghua

    2015-10-01

    To establish an indicator system of risk assessment for mechanical cuts, and to validate the system using examples. An indicator system was proposed by the expert investigation method. The index weight, expert authority coefficient, and degree of coordination were determined. The reasonability and stability of the expert questionnaire were evaluated by the reliability analysis. Some on-site examples were given to validate the indicator system. An indicator system containing 3 first-class indicators, 10 second-class indicators, and 34 third-class indicators was obtained by screening indicators using the boundary value method and the assignment transformation method. The average expert authority coefficient was 0.79. The average expert coordination coefficient was 0.47. The overall reliability coefficient was 0.884. The scores obtained using the indicator system were significantly correlated with the actual injury results in six workplaces (r=0.866, P<0.01). The indicator system of risk assessment for mechanical cuts proposed in this study is reasonable and highly consistent with the actual injury results. However, this indicator system still needs further validation and optimization.

  15. Predictive value of E-PASS and POSSUM systems for postoperative risk assessment of spinal surgery.

    PubMed

    Hirose, Jun; Taniwaki, Takuya; Fujimoto, Toru; Okada, Tatsuya; Nakamura, Takayuki; Okamoto, Nobukazu; Usuku, Koichiro; Mizuta, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    The Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems are surgical risk scoring systems that take into account both the patient's preoperative condition and intraoperative variables. While they predict postoperative morbidity and mortality rates for several types of surgery, spinal surgeries are currently not included. The authors assessed the usefulness of E-PASS and POSSUM algorithms and compared the predictive ability of both systems in patients with spinal disorders considered for surgery. The E-PASS system includes a preoperative risk score, a surgical stress score, and a comprehensive risk score that is determined by both the preoperative risk score and surgical stress score. The POSSUM system is composed of a physiological score and an operative severity score; its total score is based on both the physiological score and operative severity score. The authors calculated the E-PASS and POSSUM scores for 601 consecutive patients who had undergone spinal surgery and investigated the relationship between the individual scores of both systems and the incidence of postoperative complications. They also assessed the correctness of the predicted morbidity rate of both systems. Postoperative complications developed in 64 patients (10.6%); there were no in-hospital deaths. All EPASS scores (p ≤ 0.001) and the operative severity score and total score of the POSSUM (p < 0.03) were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications than in those without postoperative complications. The morbidity rates correlated linearly and significantly with all E-PASS scores (p ≤ 0.001); their coefficients (preoperative risk score, ρ = 0.179; surgical stress score, ρ = 0.131; and comprehensive risk score, ρ = 0.198) were higher than those for the POSSUM scores (physiological score, ρ = 0.059; operative severity score, ρ = 0.111; and total

  16. Risk perception, risk management and safety assessment: what can governments do to increase public confidence in their vaccine system?

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Noni E; Smith, Jennifer; Appleton, Mary

    2012-09-01

    For decades vaccine program managers and governments have devoted many resources to addressing public vaccine concerns, vaccine risk perception, risk management and safety assessment. Despite ever growing evidence that vaccines are safe and effective, public concerns continue. Education and evidence based scientific messages have not ended concerns. How can governments and programs more effectively address the public's vaccine concerns and increase confidence in the vaccine safety system? Vaccination hesitation has been attributed to concerns about vaccine safety, perceptions of high vaccine risks and low disease risk and consequences. Even when the public believes vaccines are important for protection many still have concerns about vaccine safety. This overview explores how heuristics affect public perception of vaccines and vaccine safety, how the public finds and uses vaccine information, and then proposes strategies for changes in the approach to vaccine safety communications. Facts and evidence confirming the safety of vaccines are not enough. Vaccine beliefs and behaviours must be shaped. This will require a shift in the what, when, how and why of vaccine risk and benefit communication content and practice. A change to a behavioural change strategy such as the WHO COMBI program that has been applied to disease eradication efforts is suggested. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

  18. A decision support system for drinking water production integrating health risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-07-18

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation.

  19. Assessment of occupational safety risks in Floridian solid waste systems using Bayesian analysis.

    PubMed

    Bastani, Mehrad; Celik, Nurcin

    2015-10-01

    Safety risks embedded within solid waste management systems continue to be a significant issue and are prevalent at every step in the solid waste management process. To recognise and address these occupational hazards, it is necessary to discover the potential safety concerns that cause them, as well as their direct and/or indirect impacts on the different types of solid waste workers. In this research, our goal is to statistically assess occupational safety risks to solid waste workers in the state of Florida. Here, we first review the related standard industrial codes to major solid waste management methods including recycling, incineration, landfilling, and composting. Then, a quantitative assessment of major risks is conducted based on the data collected using a Bayesian data analysis and predictive methods. The risks estimated in this study for the period of 2005-2012 are then compared with historical statistics (1993-1997) from previous assessment studies. The results have shown that the injury rates among refuse collectors in both musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have decreased from 88 and 15 to 16 and three injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. However, a contrasting trend is observed for the injury rates among recycling workers, for whom musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have increased from 13 and four injuries to 14 and six injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. Lastly, a linear regression model has been proposed to identify major elements of the high number of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Computer simulation to aid the risk assessment of wheelchair and special seating systems used in transport.

    PubMed

    Rogers, P D; Gibson, C; Wilcox, S J; Chong, A

    2009-01-01

    The crashworthiness of occupied proprietary wheelchairs, which are transported in motor vehicles, is currently assessed by physical crash testing in accordance with ISO 7176-19. If such wheelchairs are modified to meet the needs of the occupant, e.g. the addition of special seating, environmental control systems or life support equipment, then those making the modifications take on the manufacturer's responsibilities, one of these being the assessment of the modified wheelchair's ability to withstand vehicle crash forces. Destructively testing bespoke wheelchair designs is not practical so, currently, the transport-related risk is assessed using best engineering judgement. To improve this process virtual crash testing of the wheelchair and occupant was used. A modified crash criteria from ISO 7176-19 is proposed to enable assessment of the wheelchair's crashworthiness and provide the clinical engineer with an informed judgement of how both wheelchair alone and occupant and wheelchair together will behave in a crash.

  1. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  2. Real-Time Risk Assessment Framework for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ancel, Ersin; Capristan, Francisco M.; Foster, John V.; Condotta, Ryan

    2017-01-01

    The new Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Small Unmanned Aircraft rule (Part 107) marks the first national regulations for commercial operation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) under 55 pounds within the National Airspace System (NAS). Although sUAS flights may not be performed beyond visual line-of-sight or over non- participant structures and people, safety of sUAS operations must still be maintained and tracked at all times. Moreover, future safety-critical operation of sUAS (e.g., for package delivery) are already being conceived and tested. NASA's Unmanned Aircraft System Trac Management (UTM) concept aims to facilitate the safe use of low-altitude airspace for sUAS operations. This paper introduces the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF) which was developed to provide real-time safety evaluation and tracking capability within the UTM concept. The URAF uses Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to propagate off -nominal condition probabilities based on real-time component failure indicators. This information is then used to assess the risk to people on the ground by calculating the potential impact area and the effects of the impact. The visual representation of the expected area of impact and the nominal risk level can assist operators and controllers with dynamic trajectory planning and execution. The URAF was applied to a case study to illustrate the concept.

  3. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  4. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  5. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  6. Microbial risk assessment for recreational use of the Chicago area waterway system.

    PubMed

    Rijal, G; Tolson, J K; Petropoulou, C; Granato, T C; Glymph, A; Gerba, C; Deflaun, M F; O'Connor, C; Kollias, L; Lanyon, R

    2011-03-01

    A microbial risk assessment was conducted to estimate the human health risks from incidental contact recreational activities such as canoeing, boating and fishing in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) receiving secondary treated, but non-disinfected, effluent from three municipal water reclamation plants. Actual concentrations of the pathogens (pathogenic E. coli [estimated], Giardia, Cryptosporidium, adenovirus, norovirus, enteric virus) detected from the waterway field data collection at locations upstream and downstream of the effluent outfall during dry and wet weather conditions within the recreation season were included in the risk assessment. The results under the current treatment scheme with no disinfection indicated that the total expected gastrointestinal illness (GI) rate per 1000 incidental contact recreational exposure events during combined weather (dry and wet) conditions ranged from 0.10 to 2.78 in the CAWS, which is below the eight illnesses per 1000 swimmers considered tolerable by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Wet weather conditions contribute to elevated pathogen load to the CAWS; therefore this study determined that disinfecting the effluents of three major WRPs that discharge to the CAWS would result in an extremely small reduction in the aggregate recreation season risk to incidental contact recreators.

  7. Ecological risk assessment of aerial insectivores of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system

    SciTech Connect

    Baron, L.A.; Sample, B.E.

    1995-12-31

    Risks to aerial insectivores (species that consume flying insects; rough-winged swallows, little brown bats, and endangered gray bats) were assessed for the CERCLA remedial investigation of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system. Adult mayflies and sediment were collected from four locations and analyzed for contaminants. Sediment-to-mayfly contaminant transfer factors were generated from these data and used to estimate contaminant concentrations in mayflies from thirteen additional locations. Contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) were identified by comparing exposure estimates, generated using point estimates of parameter values, to NOAELS. COPCs included mercury, arsenic, and PCBs. Exposure to COPCs was re-estimated using Monte Carlo simulations. Adverse population effects were assumed likely if > 20% of the estimated exposure distribution was greater than the LOAEL. Exposure of swallows to mercury was a significant risk at two locations. Exposure of bats to mercury was a significant risk at only one location. While consideration of movement and foraging territory did not reduce estimated risks to swallows, when exposures for gray and little brown bats were re-estimated, population-level risks from mercury were no longer considered likely. As an endangered species however, protection is extended to individual gray bats. While less than 20% of the mercury exposure distribution for gray bats was > LOAEL, > 99% of the distribution was >NOAEL. Therefore, adverse effects may occur among maximally exposed individual gray bats. Available data indicate that contaminants in Poplar Creek are likely to present a risk to the swallow population, do not present a risk to the little brown bat population, and may present a risk to individual gray bats.

  8. Development of a screening method to assess flood risk on danish national roads and highway systems.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, N H; Larsen, M R A; Rasmussen, S F

    2011-01-01

    A method to assess flood risk on Danish national roads in a large area in the middle and southern part of Jutland, Denmark, was developed for the Danish Road Directorate. Flood risk has gained renewed focus due to the climate changes in recent years and extreme rain events are expected to become more frequent in the future. The assessment was primarily based on a digital terrain model (DTM) covering 7,500 km2 in a 1.6 x 1.6 m grid. The high-resolution terrain model was chosen in order to get an accurate estimation of the potential flooding in the road area and in the immediate vicinity, but also put a high requirement on the methods, hardware and software applied. The outcome of the analysis was detailed maps (as GIS layers) illustrating the location of depressions with depths, surface area and volume data for each depression. Furthermore, preferential flow paths, catchment boundaries and ranking of each depression were calculated. The ranking was based on volume of depressions compared with upstream catchment and a sensitivity analysis of the runoff coefficient. Finally, a method for assessing flood risk at a more advanced level (hydrodynamic simulation of surface and drainage) was developed and used on a specific blue spot as an example. The case study shows that upstream catchment, depressions, drainage system, and use of hydrodynamic calculations have a great influence on the result. Upstream catchments can contribute greatly to the flooding.

  9. A framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment of systemic risks

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, David J

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods of risk assessment have provided good service in support of policy, mainly in relation to standard setting and regulation of hazardous chemicals or practices. In recent years, however, it has become apparent that many of the risks facing society are systemic in nature – complex risks, set within wider social, economic and environmental contexts. Reflecting this, policy-making too has become more wide-ranging in scope, more collaborative and more precautionary in approach. In order to inform such policies, more integrated methods of assessment are needed. Based on work undertaken in two large EU-funded projects (INTARESE and HEIMTSA), this paper reviews the range of approaches to assessment now in used, proposes a framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment (both as a basis for bringing together and choosing between different methods of assessment, and extending these to more complex problems), and discusses some of the challenges involved in conducting integrated assessments to support policy. Integrated environmental health impact assessment is defined as a means of assessing health-related problems deriving from the environment, and health-related impacts of policies and other interventions that affect the environment, in ways that take account of the complexities, interdependencies and uncertainties of the real world. As such, it depends heavily on how issues are selected and framed, and implies the involvement of stakeholders both in issue-framing and design of the assessment, and to help interpret and evaluate the results. It is also a comparative process, which involves evaluating and comparing different scenarios. It consequently requires the ability to model the way in which the influences of exogenous factors, such as policies or other interventions, feed through the environment to affect health. Major challenges thus arise. Chief amongst these are the difficulties in ensuring effective stakeholder participation

  10. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  11. Caffeine and paraxanthine in aquatic systems: Global exposure distributions and probabilistic risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Gil, J L; Cáceres, N; Dafouz, R; Valcárcel, Y

    2017-09-06

    This study presents one of the most complete applications of probabilistic methodologies to the risk assessment of emerging contaminants. Perhaps the most data-rich of these compounds, caffeine, as well as its main metabolite (paraxanthine), were selected for this study. Information for a total of 29,132 individual caffeine and 7442 paraxanthine samples was compiled, including samples where the compounds were not detected. The inclusion of non-detect samples (as censored data) in the estimation of environmental exposure distributions (EEDs) allowed for a realistic characterization of the global presence of these compounds in aquatic systems. EEDs were compared to species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), when possible, in order to calculate joint probability curves (JPCs) to describe the risk to aquatic organisms. This way, it was determined that unacceptable environmental risk (defined as 5% of the species being potentially exposed to concentrations able to cause effects in>5% of the cases) could be expected from chronic exposure to caffeine from effluent (28.4% of the cases), surface water (6.7% of the cases) and estuary water (5.4% of the cases). Probability of exceedance of acute predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for paraxanthine were higher than 5% for all assessed matrices except for drinking water and ground water, however no experimental effects data was available for paraxanthine, resulting in a precautionary deterministic hazard assessment for this compound. Given the chemical similarities between both compounds, real effect thresholds, and thus risk, for paraxanthine, would be expected to be close to those observed for caffeine. Negligible Human health risk from exposure to caffeine via drinking or groundwater is expected from the compiled data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk assessment for Industrial Control Systems quantifying availability using mean failure cost (MFC)

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Qian; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T.

    2015-09-23

    Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are commonly used in industries such as oil and natural gas, transportation, electric, water and wastewater, chemical, pharmaceutical, pulp and paper, food and beverage, as well as discrete manufacturing (e.g., automotive, aerospace, and durable goods.) SCADA systems are generally used to control dispersed assets using centralized data acquisition and supervisory control.Originally, ICS implementations were susceptible primarily to local threats because most of their components were located in physically secure areas (i.e., ICS components were not connected to IT networks or systems). The trend toward integrating ICS systems with IT networks (e.g., efficiency and the Internet of Things) provides significantly less isolation for ICS from the outside world thus creating greater risk due to external threats. Albeit, the availability of ICS/SCADA systems is critical to assuring safety, security and profitability. Such systems form the backbone of our national cyber-physical infrastructure.Herein, we extend the concept of mean failure cost (MFC) to address quantifying availability to harmonize well with ICS security risk assessment. This new measure is based on the classic formulation of Availability combined with Mean Failure Cost (MFC). Finally, the metric offers a computational basis to estimate the availability of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security violations or breakdowns (e.g., deliberate malicious failures).

  13. Risk assessment for Industrial Control Systems quantifying availability using mean failure cost (MFC)

    DOE PAGES

    Chen, Qian; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T.

    2015-09-23

    Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are commonly used in industries such as oil and natural gas, transportation, electric, water and wastewater, chemical, pharmaceutical, pulp and paper, food and beverage, as well as discrete manufacturing (e.g., automotive, aerospace, and durable goods.) SCADA systems are generally used to control dispersed assets using centralized data acquisition and supervisory control.Originally, ICS implementations were susceptible primarily to local threats because most of their components were located in physically secure areas (i.e., ICS components were not connected to IT networks or systems). The trend toward integrating ICS systems with IT networks (e.g., efficiency and the Internet ofmore » Things) provides significantly less isolation for ICS from the outside world thus creating greater risk due to external threats. Albeit, the availability of ICS/SCADA systems is critical to assuring safety, security and profitability. Such systems form the backbone of our national cyber-physical infrastructure.Herein, we extend the concept of mean failure cost (MFC) to address quantifying availability to harmonize well with ICS security risk assessment. This new measure is based on the classic formulation of Availability combined with Mean Failure Cost (MFC). Finally, the metric offers a computational basis to estimate the availability of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security violations or breakdowns (e.g., deliberate malicious failures).« less

  14. Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

    2014-12-01

    The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern

  15. A systems approach to risk assessment: Application to methylmercury from coal combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Saroff, L.; Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) asked Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the health risks associated with Hg from coal-fired power plants. The objective of the assessment is to estimate the incremental health risks that might ensue from a typical coal-fired power plant, together with their uncertainties, taking into account existing background levels and the actual adverse health effects that have previously been associated with exposure to various Hg species. Mercury has a long history of association with adverse neurological effects at high exposure levels. The most important current exposure pathway has been found to be ingestion of fish containing methylmercury (MeHg), which is the end product of bioconcentration moving up the aquatic food chain. Mercury can enter natural waters from either industrial discharges or from atmospheric deposition of various inorganic Ho. compounds. Because of the worldwide background and the existence of local emissions sources, Hg deposition must be considered on local, regional and global scales. The regulatory technical challenge presented by methy1mercury is to protect public health without foreclosing an appreciable a portion of the food supply or impacting on the lifestyles of North American native populations. This paper presents an abbreviated account of the DOE/BNL risk assessment, as viewed from a systems perspective. We review the structure of the model, the sources of data used, the assumptions that were made, and the interpretation of the findings. Since publication of the first risk assessment report, we have refined our estimates of local atmospheric dispersion and deposition and {open_quotes}calibrated{close_quotes} the pharmacokinetic portion of the model against observations.

  16. Automated In-Home Fall Risk Assessment and Detection Sensor System for Elders

    PubMed Central

    Rantz, Marilyn; Skubic, Marjorie; Abbott, Carmen; Galambos, Colleen; Popescu, Mihail; Keller, James; Stone, Erik; Back, Jessie; Miller, Steven J.; Petroski, Gregory F.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: Falls are a major problem for the elderly people leading to injury, disability, and even death. An unobtrusive, in-home sensor system that continuously monitors older adults for fall risk and detects falls could revolutionize fall prevention and care. Design and Methods: A fall risk and detection system was developed and installed in the apartments of 19 older adults at a senior living facility. The system includes pulse-Doppler radar, a Microsoft Kinect, and 2 web cameras. To collect data for comparison with sensor data and for algorithm development, stunt actors performed falls in participants’ apartments each month for 2 years and participants completed fall risk assessments (FRAs) using clinically valid, standardized instruments. The FRAs were scored by clinicians and recorded by the sensing modalities. Participants’ gait parameters were measured as they walked on a GAITRite mat. These data were used as ground truth, objective data to use in algorithm development and to compare with radar and Kinect generated variables. Results: All FRAs are highly correlated (p < .01) with the Kinect gait velocity and Kinect stride length. Radar velocity is correlated (p < .05) to all the FRAs and highly correlated (p < .01) to most. Real-time alerts of actual falls are being sent to clinicians providing faster responses to urgent situations. Implications: The in-home FRA and detection system has the potential to help older adults remain independent, maintain functional ability, and live at home longer. PMID:26055784

  17. Cancer risk assessment with a second-generation infrared imaging system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Head, Jonathan F.; Lipari, Charles A.; Wang, Fen; Elliott, Robert L.

    1997-08-01

    Infrared imaging of the breasts for breast cancer risk assessment with a second generation amber indium antimonide focal plane staring array system was found to produce images superior to a first generation Inframetrics scanning mercury cadmium telluride system. The second generation system had greater thermal sensitivity, more elements in the image and greater dynamic range, which resulted in a greater ability to demonstrate asymmetric heat patterns in the breasts of women being screened for breast cancer. Chi-square analysis for independence of the results from 220 patients with both the scanning and focal plane infrared imaging systems demonstrated that the results from the two systems were strongly associated with each other (p equals .0001). However, the improved image from the second generation focal plane infrared imaging system allowed more objective and quantitative visual analysis, compared to the very subjective qualitative results from the first generation infrared imaging system. The improved image also resulted in an increase in the sensitivity for asymmetric heat patterns with the second generation focal plane system and yielded an increase in the percentage of patients with an abnormal asymmetric infrared image of the breasts from 32.7% with the scanning system to 50.5% with the focal plane system. The greater sensitivity and resolution of the digitized images from the second generation infrared imaging system has also allowed computer assisted image analysis of both breasts, breast quadrants and hot spots to produce quantitative measurements (mean, standard deviation, median, minimum and maximum temperatures) of asymmetric infrared abnormalities.

  18. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  19. Procedure to select test organisms for environmental risk assessment of genetically modified crops in aquatic systems.

    PubMed

    Hilbeck, Angelika; Bundschuh, Rebecca; Bundschuh, Mirco; Hofmann, Frieder; Oehen, Bernadette; Otto, Mathias; Schulz, Ralf; Trtikova, Miluse

    2017-07-29

    For a long time, the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified (GM) crops focused mainly on terrestrial ecosystems. This changed when it was scientifically established that aquatic ecosystems are exposed to GM crop residues that may negatively affect aquatic species. To assist the risk assessment process, we present a tool to identify ecologically relevant species usable in tiered testing prior to authorization or for biological monitoring in the field. The tool is derived from a selection procedure for terrestrial ecosystems with substantial but necessary changes to adequately consider the differences in the type of ecosystems. By using available information from the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), the procedure can draw upon existing biological data on aquatic systems. The proposed procedure for aquatic ecosystems was tested for the first time during an expert workshop in 2013, using the cultivation of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize as the GM crop and 1 stream type as the receiving environment in the model system. During this workshop, species executing important ecological functions in aquatic environments were identified in a stepwise procedure according to predefined ecological criteria. By doing so, we demonstrated that the procedure is practicable with regard to its goal: From the initial long list of 141 potentially exposed aquatic species, 7 species and 1 genus were identified as the most suitable candidates for nontarget testing programs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;00:000-000. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  20. Assessment of Clinical Risk Management System in Hospitals: An Approach for Quality Improvement

    PubMed Central

    Farokhzadian, Jamileh; Nayeri, Nahid Dehghan; Borhani, Fariba

    2015-01-01

    Background: Clinical risks have created major problems in healthcare system such as serious adverse effects on patient safety and enhancing the financial burden for the healthcare. Thus, clinical risk management (CRM) system has been introduced for improving the quality and safety of services to health care. The aim of this study was to assess the status of CRM in the hospitals. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 nursing staff from three teaching hospitals affiliated with the Kerman University of Medical Sciences in southeast of Iran. Data were collected from the participants using questionnaire and observational checklist in quality improvement offices and selected wards. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Results: Almost, 57% of persons participated in at least one of training sessions on CRM. The status of CRM system was rated from weak to moderate (2.93±0.72- 3.18±0.66). Among the six domains of CRM system, the highest mean belonged to domain the monitoring of analysis, evaluation and risk control (3.18±0.72); the lowest mean belonged to domain the staff’s knowledge, recognition and understanding of CRM (2.93±0.66). There were no integrated electronic systems for recording and analyzing clinical risks and incidents in the hospitals. Conclusion: Attempts have been made to establish CRM through improvement quality approach such as clinical governance and accreditation, but not enough, however, health care should move toward quality improvement and safe practice through the effective integration of CRM in organizational process. PMID:26156927

  1. Assessment of Clinical Risk Management System in Hospitals: An Approach for Quality Improvement.

    PubMed

    Farokhzadian, Jamileh; Dehghan Nayeri, Nahid; Borhani, Fariba

    2015-03-18

    Clinical risks have created major problems in healthcare system such as serious adverse effects on patient safety and enhancing the financial burden for the healthcare. Thus, clinical risk management (CRM) system has been introduced for improving the quality and safety of services to health care. The aim of this study was to assess the status of CRM in the hospitals. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 nursing staff from three teaching hospitals affiliated with the Kerman University of Medical Sciences in southeast of Iran. Data were collected from the participants using questionnaire and observational checklist in quality improvement offices and selected wards. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Almost, 57% of persons participated in at least one of training sessions on CRM. The status of CRM system was rated from weak to moderate (2.93±0.72- 3.18±0.66). Among the six domains of CRM system, the highest mean belonged to domain the monitoring of analysis, evaluation and risk control (3.18±0.72); the lowest mean belonged to domain the staff's knowledge, recognition and understanding of CRM (2.93±0.66). There were no integrated electronic systems for recording and analyzing clinical risks and incidents in the hospitals. Attempts have been made to establish CRM through improvement quality approach such as clinical governance and accreditation, but not enough, however, health care should move toward quality improvement and safe practice through the effective integration of CRM in organizational process.

  2. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  3. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  4. Occurrence of pharmaceuticals in a water supply system and related human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    de Jesus Gaffney, Vanessa; Almeida, Cristina M M; Rodrigues, Alexandre; Ferreira, Elisabete; Benoliel, Maria João; Cardoso, Vitor Vale

    2015-04-01

    A monitoring study of 31 pharmaceuticals along Lisbon's drinking water supply system was implemented, which comprised the analysis of 250 samples including raw water (surface water and groundwater), and drinking water. Of the 31 pharmaceutical compounds, only sixteen were quantified in the analyzed samples, with levels ranging from 0.005 to 46 ng/L in raw water samples and 0.09-46 ng/L in drinking water samples. The human health risk assessment performed showed that appreciable risks to the consumer's health arising from exposure to trace levels of pharmaceuticals in drinking water are extremely unlikely, as RQs values were all below 0.001. Also, pharmaceuticals were selected as indicators to be used as a tool to control the quality of raw water and the treatment efficiency in the drinking water treatment plants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Micropollutants in groundwater from septic systems: Transformations, transport mechanisms, and human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yun-Ya; Toor, Gurpal S; Wilson, P Chris; Williams, Clinton F

    2017-10-15

    Septic systems may contribute micropollutants to shallow groundwater and surface water. We constructed two in situ conventional drainfields (drip dispersal and gravel trench) and an advanced drainfield of septic systems to investigate the fate and transport of micropollutants to shallow groundwater. Unsaturated soil-water and groundwater samples were collected, over 32 sampling events (January 2013 to June 2014), from the drainfields (0.31-1.07 m deep) and piezometers (3.1-3.4 m deep). In addition to soil-water and groundwater, effluent samples collected from the septic tank were also analyzed for 20 selected micropollutants, including wastewater markers, hormones, pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), a plasticizer, and their transformation products. The removal efficiencies of micropollutants from septic tank effluent to groundwater were similar among three septic systems and were 51-89% for sucralose and 53->99% for other micropollutants. Even with high removal rates within the drainfields, six PPCPs and sucralose with concentrations ranging from <0.3 to 154 ng/L and 121 to 32,000 ng/L reached shallow groundwater, respectively. The human health risk assessment showed that the risk to human health due to consumption of groundwater is negligible for the micropollutants monitored in the study. A better understanding of ecotoxicological effects of micropollutant mixtures from septic systems to ecosystem and human health is warranted for the long-term sustainability of septic systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the Next Generation of <span class=Risk Assessment Final report" vspace = "5" hspace="5" align="right" border="1" /> This final report, "Next Generation Risk Assessment: Recent Advances in Molec...

  7. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  8. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  9. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Treesearch

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  10. All Hazards Risk Assessment Transition Project: Report on Capability Assessment Management System (CAMS) Automation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-01

    utilisés pour rassembler les exigences nécessaires à la mise au point du système de gestion de l’évaluation des capacités (Capability Assessment...comparaison et l’analyse des écarts et des exigences en matière de capacité à l’échelle du spectre de la gestion des urgences. 1 2 Table of...30 7.1.1.4 User Access Controls

  11. A generalised Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for Real Time Control of urban drainage systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

    2014-07-01

    An innovative and generalised approach to the integrated Real Time Control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy aims to minimise the expected Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii) the expected runoff volume (calculated by radar-based nowcast models) and - most important - (iii) the estimated uncertainty of the runoff forecasts. The inclusion of uncertainty allows for a more confident use of Real Time Control (RTC). Overflow risk is calculated by a flexible function which allows for the prioritisation of the discharge points according to their sensitivity and intended use. DORA was tested on a hypothetical example inspired by the main catchment in the city of Aarhus (Denmark). An analysis of DORA’s performance over a range of events with different return periods, using a simple conceptual model, is presented. Compared to a traditional local control approach, DORA contributed to reduce CSO volumes from the most sensitive points while reducing total CSO volumes discharged from the catchment. Additionally, the results show that the inclusion of forecasts and their uncertainty contributed to further improving the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to the wider usage of global RTC methods in the management of urban drainage networks.

  12. A theoretical approach to assess microbial risks due to failures in drinking water systems.

    PubMed

    Westrell, T; Bergstedt, O; Stenström, T A; Ashbolt, N J

    2003-06-01

    A failure in treatment or in the distribution network of a surface water-works could have serious consequences due to the variable raw water quality in combination with an extended distribution. The aim of this study was to examine the theoretical impact of incidents in the drinking water system on the annual risk of infection in a population served by a large water treatment plant in Sweden. Reported incidents in the system were examined and a microbial risk assessment that included three pathogens, Cryptosporidium parvum, rotavirus and Campylobacter jejuni, was performed. The main risk incidents in water treatment were associated with sub-optimal particle removal or disinfection malfunction. Incidents in the distribution network included cross-connections and microbial pollution of reservoirs and local networks. The majority of the annual infections were likely to be due to pathogens passing treatment during normal operation and not due to failures, thus adding to the endemic rate. Among the model organisms, rotavirus caused the largest number of infections. Decentralised water treatment with membranes was also considered in which failures upstream fine-pored membranes would have little impact as long as the membranes were kept intact.

  13. Electronic Risk Assessment System as an Appropriate Tool for the Prevention of Cancer: a Qualitative Study.

    PubMed

    Javan Amoli, Amir Hossein; Maserat, Elham; Safdari, Reza; Zali, Mohammad Reza

    2015-01-01

    Decision making modalities for screening for many cancer conditions and different stages have become increasingly complex. Computer-based risk assessment systems facilitate scheduling and decision making and support the delivery of cancer screening services. The aim of this article was to survey electronic risk assessment system as an appropriate tool for the prevention of cancer. A qualitative design was used involving 21 face-to-face interviews. Interviewing involved asking questions and getting answers from exclusive managers of cancer screening. Of the participants 6 were female and 15 were male, and ages ranged from 32 to 78 years. The study was based on a grounded theory approach and the tool was a semi- structured interview. Researchers studied 5 dimensions, comprising electronic guideline standards of colorectal cancer screening, work flow of clinical and genetic activities, pathways of colorectal cancer screening and functionality of computer based guidelines and barriers. Electronic guideline standards of colorectal cancer screening were described in the s3 categories of content standard, telecommunications and technical standards and nomenclature and classification standards. According to the participations' views, workflow and genetic pathways of colorectal cancer screening were identified. The study demonstrated an effective role of computer-guided consultation for screening management. Electronic based systems facilitate real-time decision making during a clinical interaction. Electronic pathways have been applied for clinical and genetic decision support, workflow management, update recommendation and resource estimates. A suitable technical and clinical infrastructure is an integral part of clinical practice guidline of screening. As a conclusion, it is recommended to consider the necessity of architecture assessment and also integration standards.

  14. Development of Triad approach based system for ecological risk assessment for contaminated areas of Kyrgyzstan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kydralieva, Kamilia; Uzbekov, Beksultan; Khudaibergenova, Bermet; Terekhova, Vera; Jorobekova, Sharipa

    2014-05-01

    This research is aimed to develop a high-effective system of an ecological risk assessment and risk-based decision making for anthropogenic ecosystems, with particular focus on the soils of the Kyrgyz Republic. The study is focused on the integration of Triad data including chemical, biological and ecotoxicological soil markers to estimate the potential risk from soils of highly anthropized areas impacted by deposition of different pollutants from mining operation. We focus on technogenic areas of Kyrgyzstan, the former uranium-producing province. Triad-based ecological risk assessment for technogenic sites are not currently used in Kyrgyzstan. However, the vitality of such research is self-evident. There are about 50 tailing dumps and more than 80 tips of radioactive waste which are formed as a result of uranium and complex ores (mercury, antimony, lead, cadmium and etc) mining around the unfavorable aforementioned places. According to the Mining Wastes' Tailings and Fills Rehabilitation Centre established in 1999 by a special Government's Resolution, one of the most ecologically dangerous uranium tailings resides in Kadzhi-Say. Although uranium processing is no longer practiced in Kadzhi-Say, a large number of open landfills and uranium ore storages still remain abandoned at the vicinity of this settlement. These neglected sites have enormous problems associated with soil erosion known as "technogenic deserts". The upper soil horizons are deprived of humus and vegetation, which favor the formation of low-buffer landscapes in the zones of maximum contamination. As a result, most of these areas are not re-cultivated and remain in critical environmental condition (Bykovchenko, et al., 2005; Tukhvatshin, 2005; Suranova, 2006). Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites will be integrated. The following Triad-based parameters will be employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous

  15. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  16. Risk Assessment Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-10-01

    2W0 ww) A number of computer-based risk assessment tools were enhanced or creaited to provide Increased access to risk assessment instruments and...produced an extensible authoring tool , SYNTAS, for test instruments that will simplify the data gathering phase of subsequent work. SYNTAS gives DNA...Ultimately it became a computer-assisted software engineerting (CASE) tool capable of producing a wide variety of assessment instruments . In addition, its

  17. Fuzzy-logic-based network for complex systems risk assessment: application to ship performance analysis.

    PubMed

    Abou, Seraphin C

    2012-03-01

    In this paper, a new interpretation of intuitionistic fuzzy sets in the advanced framework of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is extended to monitor safety-critical systems' performance. Not only is the proposed approach more effective, but it also takes into account the fuzzy rules that deal with imperfect knowledge/information and, therefore, is different from the classical Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, which assumes that the rule (the knowledge) is perfect. We provide an analytical solution to the practical and important problem of the conceptual probabilistic approach for formal ship safety assessment using the fuzzy set theory that involves uncertainties associated with the reliability input data. Thus, the overall safety of the ship engine is investigated as an object of risk analysis using the fuzzy mapping structure, which considers uncertainty and partial truth in the input-output mapping. The proposed method integrates direct evidence of the frame of discernment and is demonstrated through references to examples where fuzzy set models are informative. These simple applications illustrate how to assess the conflict of sensor information fusion for a sufficient cooling power system of vessels under extreme operation conditions. It was found that propulsion engine safety systems are not only a function of many environmental and operation profiles but are also dynamic and complex. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage among pregnant women: pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system.

    PubMed

    Ahluwalia, Indu B; Singleton, James A; Jamieson, Denise J; Rasmussen, Sonja A; Harrison, Leslie

    2011-05-01

    Since 2004, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) have recommended that pregnant women receive the seasonal influenza vaccine, regardless of pregnancy trimester, because of their increased risk for severe complications from influenza. However, the uptake of the influenza vaccine by pregnant women has been low. During the 2009-2010 influenza season, pregnant women were identified as a priority population to receive the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (2009 H1N1) monovalent vaccine in addition to the seasonal influenza vaccine. In this issue, we highlight information from the 10 states that collected data using the survey administered by the Pregnancy Risk Assessment and Monitoring System (PRAMS) about seasonal vaccine coverage among women with recent live births and reasons for those who chose not to get vaccinated. The combined estimates from PRAMS of influenza vaccination coverage for the 2009-2010 season, which included data from October 2009 to March 2010, from 10 states were 50.7% for seasonal and 46.6% for 2009 H1N1 vaccine among women with recent live births. Among women who did not get vaccinated, reasons varied from worries about the safety of the vaccines for self and baby to not normally getting the vaccination. Further evaluation is needed on ways to increase influenza vaccination among pregnant women, effectively communicate the risk of influenza illness during pregnancy, and address women's concerns about influenza vaccination safety during pregnancy.

  19. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  20. APPLICATION OF EXAMS AS THE SURFACE WATER MODULE IN THE HWIR MULTIMEDIA RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multimedia, multipathway risk assessment software has been developed for implementing the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule (HWIR). This regulation is intended to determine whether a waste should be considered hazardous, and confined to Subtitle D facilities, or safely release...

  1. APPLICATION OF EXAMS AS THE SURFACE WATER MODULE IN THE HWIR MULTIMEDIA RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multimedia, multipathway risk assessment software has been developed for implementing the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule (HWIR). This regulation is intended to determine whether a waste should be considered hazardous, and confined to Subtitle D facilities, or safely release...

  2. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  3. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  4. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  5. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... helpful? Formal name: Cardiac Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common ... on Coronary artery disease: Tests and diagnosis .) The lipid profile is the most important blood test for cardiac ...

  6. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  7. C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

  8. Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA’s Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-01-01

    Phillips, Cros - scope, and Geddes, 2008; Body and Marston, 2011); and other terror- ism risk models under development at the Department of Homeland...ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA’s Risk Management Analysis Tool and

  9. Exploring the development of a decision support system (DSS) to prioritize engineered nanoparticles for risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marvin, Hans J. P.; Bouwmeester, Hans; Bakker, Martine; Kroese, E. Dinant; van de Meent, Dik; Bourgeois, Francois; Lokers, Rob; van der Ham, Henk; Verhelst, Lieke

    2013-08-01

    Engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) have gained huge commercial interest because of their unique and size-related physicochemical properties. The diversity and complexity of ENPs is increasing with the introduction of next generation nanoparticles. The current approaches are not able to assess the safety of all types and applications of ENPs. Therefore, we are developing a decision support system (DSS) that helps to identify those ENPs and applications that should get priority in the risk assessment. This DSS smartly uses existing knowledge in publicly available databases. With the aid of vocabularies, knowledge rules and logic reasoning new knowledge will be derived. In this paper, the procedure for a DSS is described. Since this system is open by design, others can re-use and extend the DSS content, and newly developed DSS tools can be easily accommodated, which will make the DSS more effective over the years. Data of newly emerging studies will be used for the validation of the DSS. The results will benefit regulating authorities and scientists focussing on the development of inherently safe ENPs.

  10. 3-D nasal cultures: Systems toxicological assessment of a candidate modified-risk tobacco product.

    PubMed

    Iskandar, Anita R; Mathis, Carole; Martin, Florian; Leroy, Patrice; Sewer, Alain; Majeed, Shoaib; Kuehn, Diana; Trivedi, Keyur; Grandolfo, Davide; Cabanski, Maciej; Guedj, Emmanuel; Merg, Celine; Frentzel, Stefan; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2017-01-01

    In vitro toxicology approaches have evolved from a focus on molecular changes within a cell to understanding of toxicity-related mechanisms in systems that can mimic the in vivo environment. The recent development of three dimensional (3-D) organotypic nasal epithelial culture models offers a physiologically robust system for studying the effects of exposure through inhalation. Exposure to cigarette smoke (CS) is associated with nasal inflammation; thus, the nasal epithelium is relevant for evaluating the pathophysiological impact of CS exposure. The present study investigated further the application of in vitro human 3-D nasal epithelial culture models for toxicological assessment of inhalation exposure. Aligned with 3Rs strategy, this study aimed to explore the relevance of a human 3-D nasal culture model to assess the toxicological impact of aerosols generated from a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP), the Tobacco Heating System (THS) 2.2, as compared with smoke generated from reference cigarette 3R4F. A series of experimental repetitions, where multiple concentrations of THS2.2 aerosol and 3R4F smoke were applied, were conducted to obtain reproducible measurements to understand the cellular/molecular changes that occur following exposure. In agreement with "Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century - a Vision and a Strategy", this study implemented a systems toxicology approach and found that for all tested concentrations the impact of 3R4F smoke was substantially greater than that of THS2.2 aerosol in terms of cytotoxicity levels, alterations in tissue morphology, secretion of pro-inflammatory mediators, impaired ciliary function, and increased perturbed transcriptomes and miRNA expression profiles.

  11. Suicide Risk Assessment in Hospitals: An Expert System-Based Triage Tool.

    PubMed

    Desjardins, Isabelle; Cats-Baril, William; Maruti, Sanchit; Freeman, Kalev; Althoff, Robert

    2016-07-01

    The November 2010 Joint Commission Sentinel Event Alert on the prevention of suicides in medical/surgical units and the emergency department (ED) mandates screening every patient treated as an outpatient or admitted to the hospital for suicide risk. Our aim was to develop a suicide risk assessment tool to (1) predict the expert psychiatrist's assessment for risk of committing suicide within 72 hours in the hospital, (2) replicate the recommended intervention by the psychiatrist, and (3) demonstrate acceptable levels of participant satisfaction. The 3 phases of tool development took place between October 2012 and February 2014. An expert panel developed key questions for a tablet-based suicide risk questionnaire. We then performed a randomized cross-sectional study comparing the questionnaire to the interview by a psychiatrist, for model derivation. A neural network model was constructed using 255 ED participants. Evaluation was the agreement between the risk/intervention scores using the questionnaire and the risk/intervention scores given by psychiatrists to the same patients. The model was validated using a new population of 124 participants from the ED and 50 participants from medical/surgical units. The suicide risk assessment tool performed at a remarkably high level. For levels of suicide risk (minimal or low, moderate, or high), areas under the curves were all above 0.938. For levels of intervention (routine, specialized, highly specialized, or secure), areas under the curves were all above 0.914. Participants reported that they liked the tool, and it took less than a minute to use. An expert-based neural network model predicted psychiatrists' assessments of risk of suicide in the hospital within 72 hours. It replicated psychiatrist-recommended interventions to mitigate risk in EDs and medical/surgical units. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  12. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  13. Pregnancy Intention and Post-partum Depressive Affect in Louisiana Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System.

    PubMed

    Suh, Elizabeth Y; Ma, Ping; Dunaway, Lauren Futrell; Theall, Katherine P

    2016-05-01

    Postpartum depression is associated with negative physical and mental health outcomes for both the mother and infant. This study examines the relationship between a mother and/or her partner's pregnancy intentions and reported post-partum depressive symptoms (PPDs). Using Louisiana pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system, 2000-2003, a secondary cross-sectional analysis was conducted on 5549 mothers, stratified by race, who delivered a singleton, live birth and whose infant was still alive at the time of the survey. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions were conducted, taking into account the complex survey design. In multivariable models, unwanted pregnancies were associated with severe PPDs (aOR 1.76, 95 % CI 1.23-2.53). Furthermore, the association between husbands/partners' who did not want or care about the pregnancy and mild PPDs remained for White women (aOR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.02-1.69); while among Black women, neither parent's pregnancy intention were associated with mild or severe PPDs. This study supports existing research demonstrating the association between pregnancy intention and PPDs. This study contributes to the limited information on the role that partner pregnancy intention plays on maternal mental health outcomes, however further discussion is needed on the impact of this role across races. Findings can be used in programs aiming to reduce adverse mental health outcomes among high-risk mothers.

  14. Environmental (Saprozoic) Pathogens of Engineered Water Systems: Understanding Their Ecology for Risk Assessment and Management

    PubMed Central

    Ashbolt, Nicholas J.

    2015-01-01

    Major waterborne (enteric) pathogens are relatively well understood and treatment controls are effective when well managed. However, water-based, saprozoic pathogens that grow within engineered water systems (primarily within biofilms/sediments) cannot be controlled by water treatment alone prior to entry into water distribution and other engineered water systems. Growth within biofilms or as in the case of Legionella pneumophila, primarily within free-living protozoa feeding on biofilms, results from competitive advantage. Meaning, to understand how to manage water-based pathogen diseases (a sub-set of saprozoses) we need to understand the microbial ecology of biofilms; with key factors including biofilm bacterial diversity that influence amoebae hosts and members antagonistic to water-based pathogens, along with impacts from biofilm substratum, water temperature, flow conditions and disinfectant residual—all control variables. Major saprozoic pathogens covering viruses, bacteria, fungi and free-living protozoa are listed, yet today most of the recognized health burden from drinking waters is driven by legionellae, non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) and, to a lesser extent, Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In developing best management practices for engineered water systems based on hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) or water safety plan (WSP) approaches, multi-factor control strategies, based on quantitative microbial risk assessments need to be developed, to reduce disease from largely opportunistic, water-based pathogens. PMID:26102291

  15. Caries-risk profiles in Italian adults using computer caries assessment system and ICDAS.

    PubMed

    Carta, Giovanna; Cagetti, Maria Grazia; Cocco, Fabio; Sale, Silvana; Lingström, Peter; Campus, Guglielmo

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the correlation among socio-behavioral factors, caries status and caries risk, calculated through Cariogram, in an adult population. Four hundred eighty subjects (mean age 40.73, SE ± 0.33) randomly selected from the municipal electoral registry consented to participate in the survey. Subjects were examined, and the International Caries Detection Assessment System (ICDAS) index was registered. A highly structured questionnaire was submitted to investigate (1) personal data (i.e., age, gender, educational level, job categorization), (2) life-style behavior (i.e., smoking and dietary habits), and (3) oral health behavior (i.e., tooth brushing, use of fluoride and dental check-up frequency). An evaluation of the mutans streptococci concentration in saliva was also performed. Information on caries-related factors was entered into the Cariogram in order to generate an individual caries risk profile for each subject. Multinomial logistic regression was performed using Cariogram levels as the dependent variable. The possible correlated variables were analyzed using the principal component analysis (PCA). Considering ICDAS scores, 5.62% of the sample had at least an initial decay (ICDAS = 1-2), whereas 40.83% of the sample presented at least one moderate decay (ICDAS = 3-4) and 17.08% a severe decay (ICDAS = 5-6). Decay at ICDAS levels 5-6 and more than 5 missing teeth were statistically associated with Cariogram scores (OR = 2.36, 95%CI = 1.83-3.03 and OR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.13-1.82, respectively). The results suggest that the Cariogram model was able to identify caries-related factors in an adult population. A direct association among the risk categories from Cariogram, the caries status and some socio-behavioral variables was verified.

  16. [Risk assessment and safety evaluation using system normative indexes integration method for non-point source pollution on watershed scale].

    PubMed

    Liu, Jian-Chang; Yan, Yan; Liu, Feng; Ding, Ding; Zhao, Ming

    2008-03-01

    Decision-makers take non-point source pollution under control as well as possible results from enough information of risk trend of nonpoint source pollution on watershed scale. System normative indexes integration evaluation method about system risk trend was developed when focusing on that the probability values of some elements attributing to some trend of the system were more than one, and that the system evaluation needed a formula from the system structure. On the basis of analysis on aspects and characteristics of the system risk normalization, a new valuation method, the relationship between the normalization values of the system and the factors was established. The Lugu Lake Watershed in Southwest China was selected as study area to assess the risk of non-point source loss to surface water using this method. The results indicate that 1) the wholly risk of non-point source loss to surface water in this watershed is in a high level; 2) the system indexes integration evaluation method is an universal method to evaluate a quality or a trend of any system and shows a great power in comparing several systems; 3) the method is helpful to attain an effective and integrated assessment on a system when it is combined with other methods.

  17. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  18. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  19. Code System For Risk Assessment From Underground Radioactive Waste Disposal In the United Kingdom.

    SciTech Connect

    THOMPSON,

    2000-04-18

    Version 00 The SYVAC D/2 program simulates the ground water mediated movement of radionuclides from underground facilities for the disposal of low and intermediate level wastes to the accessible environment, and provides an estimate of the subsequent radiological risk to man. The simulated timescales are usually within the range 1.0E+03 to 1.0E+07 years. SYVAC is capable of modelling both shallow disposal facilities (located in argillaceous media and overlaying an aquifer) and deep disposal facilities (in a saturated environment). The software was developed for use within the UK Department of the Environment (DOE) Radioactive Waste Management Programme, as one tool in the DOE Assessment Methodology. The acronym SYVAC (System Variability Analysis Code for deep and shallow burial of radioactive waste) comes from the name of an assessment code originally obtained from the Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL) in 1982, which was found to be inappropriate for geological conditions in the UK. The development of the previous version, SYVAC A/C, was undertaken by the following private installations under UK Department of the Environment (DOE) contracts: Atkins Research & Development, Epsom, Surrey, England; Associated Nuclear Services, Epsom, Surrey, England; CAP Scientific, London, England; Electrowatt Engineering Services, Horsham, West Sussex, England; and Scicon Limited, Wavendon, Milton Kenes, England.

  20. Assessing fracture risk in people with MS: a service development study comparing three fracture risk scoring systems

    PubMed Central

    Dobson, Ruth; Leddy, Sara Geraldine; Gangadharan, Sunay; Giovannoni, Gavin

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Suboptimal bone health is increasingly recognised as an important cause of morbidity. Multiple sclerosis (MS) has been consistently associated with an increased risk of osteoporosis and fracture. Various fracture risk screening tools have been developed, two of which are in routine use and a further one is MS-specific. We set out to compare the results obtained by these in the MS clinic population. Design This was a service development study. The 10-year risk estimates of any fracture and hip fracture generated by each of the algorithms were compared. Setting The MS clinic at the Royal London Hospital. Participants 88 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS. Outcome measures Mean 10-year overall fracture risk and hip fracture risk were calculated using each of the three fracture risk calculators. The number of interventions that would be required as a result of using each of these tools was also compared. Results Mean 10-year fracture risk was 4.7%, 2.3% and 7.6% using FRAX, QFracture and the MS-specific calculator, respectively (p<0.0001 for difference). The agreement between risk scoring tools was poor at all levels of fracture risk. Conclusions The agreement between these three fracture risk scoring tools is poor in the MS population. Further work is required to develop and validate an accurate fracture risk scoring system for use in MS. Trial registration This service development study was approved by the Clinical Effectiveness Department at Barts Health NHS Trust (project registration number 156/12). PMID:23482989

  1. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  2. Assessing human health risks from pesticide use in conventional and innovative cropping systems with the BROWSE model.

    PubMed

    Lammoglia, Sabine-Karen; Kennedy, Marc C; Barriuso, Enrique; Alletto, Lionel; Justes, Eric; Munier-Jolain, Nicolas; Mamy, Laure

    2017-08-01

    Reducing the risks and impacts of pesticide use on human health and on the environment is one of the objectives of the European Commission Directive 2009/128/EC in the quest for a sustainable use of pesticides. This Directive, developed through European national plans such as Ecophyto plan in France, promotes the introduction of innovative cropping systems relying, for example, on integrated pest management. Risk assessment for human health of the overall pesticide use in these innovative systems is required before the introduction of those systems to avoid that an innovation becomes a new problem. The objectives of this work were to assess and to compare (1) the human exposure to pesticides used in conventional and innovative cropping systems designed to reduce pesticide needs, and (2) the corresponding risks for human health. Humans (operator and residents) exposure to pesticides and risks for human health were assessed for each pesticide with the BROWSE model. Then, a method was proposed to represent the overall risk due to all pesticides used in one system. This study considers 3 conventional and 9 associated innovative cropping systems, and 116 plant protection products containing 89 different active substances (i.e. pesticides). The modelling results obtained with BROWSE showed that innovative cropping systems such as low input or no herbicide systems would reduce the risk for human health in comparison to the corresponding conventional cropping systems. On the contrary, BROWSE showed that conservation tillage system would lead to unacceptable risks in the conditions of our study, because of a high number of pesticide applications, and especially of some herbicides. For residents, the dermal absorption was the main exposure route while ingestion was found to be negligible. For operators, inhalation was also a predominant route of exposure. In general, human exposure to pesticides and human health risks were found to be correlated to the treatment frequency

  3. FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

    2013-03-01

    Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

  4. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  5. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  6. Guidelines for neurotoxicity risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    These Guidelines describe the principles, concepts, and procedures that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will follow in evaluating data on potential neurotoxicity associated with exposure to environmental toxicants. The procedures outlined are intended to help develop a sound scientific basis for neurotoxicity risk assessment, promote consistency in the Agency`s assessment of toxic effects on the nervous system, and inform others of the approaches used by the Agency in those assessments.

  7. Initial skill assessment of the California Harmful Algae Risk Mapping (C-HARM) system.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Clarissa R; Kudela, Raphael M; Kahru, Mati; Chao, Yi; Rosenfeld, Leslie K; Bahr, Frederick L; Anderson, David M; Norris, Tenaya A

    2016-11-01

    Toxic algal events are an annual burden on aquaculture and coastal ecosystems of California. The threat of domoic acid (DA) toxicity to human and wildlife health is the dominant harmful algal bloom (HAB) concern for the region, leading to a strong focus on prediction and mitigation of these blooms and their toxic effects. This paper describes the initial development of the California Harmful Algae Risk Mapping (C-HARM) system that predicts the spatial likelihood of blooms and dangerous levels of DA using a unique blend of numerical models, ecological forecast models of the target group, Pseudo-nitzschia, and satellite ocean color imagery. Data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (DINEOF) are applied to ocean color imagery to fill in missing data and then used in a multivariate mode with other modeled variables to forecast biogeochemical parameters. Daily predictions (nowcast and forecast maps) are run routinely at the Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System (CeNCOOS) and posted on its public website. Skill assessment of model output for the nowcast data is restricted to nearshore pixels that overlap with routine pier monitoring of HABs in California from 2014 to 2015. Model lead times are best correlated with DA measured with solid phase adsorption toxin tracking (SPATT) and marine mammal strandings from DA toxicosis, suggesting long-term benefits of the HAB predictions to decision-making. Over the next three years, the C-HARM application system will be incorporated into the NOAA operational HAB forecasting system and HAB Bulletin. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  9. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  10. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft's .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  11. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  12. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  13. Development and application of the dynamic system doctor to nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessments.

    SciTech Connect

    Kunsman, David Marvin; Aldemir, Tunc; Rutt, Benjamin; Metzroth, Kyle; Catalyurek, Umit; Denning, Richard; Hakobyan, Aram; Dunagan, Sean C.

    2008-05-01

    This LDRD project has produced a tool that makes probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear reactors - analyses which are very resource intensive - more efficient. PRAs of nuclear reactors are being increasingly relied on by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.N.R.C.) for licensing decisions for current and advanced reactors. Yet, PRAs are produced much as they were 20 years ago. The work here applied a modern systems analysis technique to the accident progression analysis portion of the PRA; the technique was a system-independent multi-task computer driver routine. Initially, the objective of the work was to fuse the accident progression event tree (APET) portion of a PRA to the dynamic system doctor (DSD) created by Ohio State University. Instead, during the initial efforts, it was found that the DSD could be linked directly to a detailed accident progression phenomenological simulation code - the type on which APET construction and analysis relies, albeit indirectly - and thereby directly create and analyze the APET. The expanded DSD computational architecture and infrastructure that was created during this effort is called ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees). ADAPT is a system software infrastructure that supports execution and analysis of multiple dynamic event-tree simulations on distributed environments. A simulator abstraction layer was developed, and a generic driver was implemented for executing simulators on a distributed environment. As a demonstration of the use of the methodological tool, ADAPT was applied to quantify the likelihood of competing accident progression pathways occurring for a particular accident scenario in a particular reactor type using MELCOR, an integrated severe accident analysis code developed at Sandia. (ADAPT was intentionally created with flexibility, however, and is not limited to interacting with only one code. With minor coding changes to input files, ADAPT can be linked to other

  14. Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

    SciTech Connect

    Waters, Michael Jackson, Marcus

    2008-11-15

    The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens and presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including

  15. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  16. Managing Risk in Systems Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DePaoli, Marilyn M.; And Others

    Stanford University's use of a risk assessment methodology to improve the management of systems development projects is discussed. After examining the concepts of hazard, peril, and risk as they relate to the system development process, three ways to assess risk are covered: size, structure, and technology. The overall objective for Stanford…

  17. Managing Risk in Systems Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DePaoli, Marilyn M.; And Others

    Stanford University's use of a risk assessment methodology to improve the management of systems development projects is discussed. After examining the concepts of hazard, peril, and risk as they relate to the system development process, three ways to assess risk are covered: size, structure, and technology. The overall objective for Stanford…

  18. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment##

    EPA Science Inventory

    This overview is a revision to the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenants of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goa...

  19. A Systems Approach to Assessing Risk: The Role of Metabolism Research in Describing and Predicting Exposure

    EPA Science Inventory

    An important component of assessing risk is defining the exposure of a chemical stressor to a target organism. Often the chemical stressor is assumed to be a single compound even when it is comprised of different stereoisomers (e.g., pyrethroids and 1,2,4-triazole fungicides), w...

  20. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment##

    EPA Science Inventory

    This overview is a revision to the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenants of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goa...

  1. Testing a model-driven Geographical Information System for risk assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew; Latutrie, Benjamin; Andredakis, Ioannis; De Groeve, Tom; Langlois, Eric; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Del Negro, Ciro; Favalli, Massimiliano; Fujita, Eisuke; Kelfoun, Karim; Rongo, Rocco

    2016-04-01

    RED-SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modeling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. It is an informal working group that has evolved around the philosophy of combining global scientific resources, in the realm of physical volcanology, remote sensing and modeling, to better define and limit uncertainty. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. The main recommendation of the workshop in terms of modeling was that there is a pressing need for "real-time input of reliable Time-Averaged Discharge Rate (TADR) data with regular up-dates of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) if modeling is to be effective; the DEMs can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community." We thus set up a test to explore (i) which model source terms are needed, (ii) how they can be provided and updated, and (iii) how can models be run and applied in an ensemble approach. The test used two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), for which a prototype Geographical Information System (GIS) was set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. This system drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building-type. After defining lava flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), five operational lava flow emplacement models were run (DOWNFLOW, FLOWGO, LAVASIM, MAGFLOW and VOLCFLOW) to produce a projection for likelihood of impact for all pixels within the area covered by the GIS, based on agreement between models. The test thus aimed not to assess the model output, but instead to examine overlapping output. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced. The exercise identified several

  2. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Germolec, Dori R.; Luebke, Robert W.; Johnson, Victor J.

    2016-01-01

    This overview is an update of the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenants of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goal of this unit is still to highlight relationships between xenobiotic-induced immunosuppression and risk of clinical diseases progression. In immunotoxicology, this may require development of models to equate moderate changes in markers of immune functions to potential changes in incidence or severity of infectious diseases. For most xenobiotics, exposure levels and disease incidence data are rarely available and safe exposure levels must be estimated based on observations from experimental models or human biomarker studies. Thus, it is important to establish a scientifically sound framework that allows accurate and quantitative interpretation of experimental or biomarker data in the risk assessment process. PMID:26828330

  3. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    DeWitt, Jamie C; Germolec, Dori R; Luebke, Robert W; Johnson, Victor J

    2016-02-01

    This overview is an update of the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenets of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goal of this unit is still to highlight relationships between xenobiotic-induced immunosuppression and risk of clinical diseases progression. In immunotoxicology, this may require development of models to equate moderate changes in markers of immune functions to potential changes in incidence or severity of infectious diseases. For most xenobiotics, exposure levels and disease incidence data are rarely available, and safe exposure levels must be estimated based on observations from experimental models or human biomarker studies. Thus, it is important to establish a scientifically sound framework that allows accurate and quantitative interpretation of experimental or biomarker data in the risk assessment process. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  4. Enterprise Resource Planning Systems: Assessment of Risk Factors by California Community College Leaders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valente, Mario Manuel

    2011-01-01

    Most California Community Colleges have chosen to purchase and implement a Management Information Systems software solution also known as an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system in order to monitor, control, and automate their administrative tasks. ERP implementations are complex, expensive, high profile, and therefore high risk. To reduce…

  5. Enterprise Resource Planning Systems: Assessment of Risk Factors by California Community College Leaders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valente, Mario Manuel

    2011-01-01

    Most California Community Colleges have chosen to purchase and implement a Management Information Systems software solution also known as an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system in order to monitor, control, and automate their administrative tasks. ERP implementations are complex, expensive, high profile, and therefore high risk. To reduce…

  6. Falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gallacher, Rose

    2017-02-22

    What was the nature of the CPD activity, practice-related feedback and/or event and/or experience in your practice? The CPD article outlined the causes and consequences of falls for older patients. It discussed the falls risk assessment tools, and falls prevention measures.

  7. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  8. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  9. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  10. New techniques for environmental monitoring and risk assessment in water surface systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios-Theodosios; Maniatis, Georgios; Hoey, Trevor; Escudero, Javier; Vagras, Patricia

    2016-04-01

    Our society is continuously impacted by significant weather events many times resulting in catastrophes that interrupt our normal way of life. In the context of climate change and increasing urbanisation these "extreme" hydrologic events are intensified both in magnitude and frequency, inducing costs of the order of billions of pounds. The vast majority of such costs and impacts (even more to developed societies) are due to water related catastrophes such as the geomorphic action of flowing water (including scouring of critical infrastructure, bed and bank destabilisation) and flooding. New tools and radically novel concepts are in need, to enable our society becoming more resilient. In this presentation, new research at the interface of sensors and water engineering is presented, focusing on addressing the above challenges in a holistic and comprehensive manner. In particular, the design, development, testing and calibration, as well as preliminary field implementation of a new tool for risk assessment and environmental monitoring in water surface systems, is explored in this work. It is demonstrated that novel advances in conceptual approaches in water engineering and specifically in the field of hydrodynamic transport of solids (such as the impulse and energy criteria) can be successfully combined with rapid advances in sensors to help monitor and increase the resilience of our society against catastrophic hydrologic events.

  11. An adaptable mesocosm platform for performing integrated assessments of nanomaterial risk in complex environmental systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Auffan, Mélanie; Tella, Marie; Santaella, Catherine; Brousset, Lenka; Paillès, Christine; Barakat, Mohamed; Espinasse, Benjamin; Artells, Ester; Issartel, Julien; Masion, Armand; Rose, Jérôme; Wiesner, Mark R.; Achouak, Wafa; Thiéry, Alain; Bottero, Jean-Yves

    2014-07-01

    Physical-chemists, (micro)biologists, and ecologists need to conduct meaningful experiments to study the environmental risk of engineered nanomaterials with access to relevant mechanistic data across several spatial and temporal scales. Indoor aquatic mesocosms (60L) that can be tailored to virtually mimic any ecosystem appear as a particularly well-suited device. Here, this concept is illustrated by a pilot study aimed at assessing the distribution of a CeO2-based nanomaterial within our system at low concentration (1.5 mg/L). Physico-chemical as well as microbiological parameters took two weeks to equilibrate. These parameters were found to be reproducible across the 9-mesocosm setup over a 45-day period of time. Recovery mass balances of 115 +/- 18% and 60 +/- 30% of the Ce were obtained for the pulse dosing and the chronic dosing, respectively. This demonstrated the relevance of our experimental approach that allows for adequately monitoring the fate and impact of a given nanomaterial.

  12. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment). PMID:27757402

  13. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    PubMed

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  14. Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

    2017-08-01

    The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

  15. Data Model for Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Spatial Support Decision System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrejchenko, Vera; Bakker, Wim; van Westen, Cees

    2014-05-01

    The goal of the CHANGES Spatial Decision Support System is to support end-users in making decisions related to risk reduction measures for areas at risk from multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. The crucial parts in the design of the system are the user requirements, the data model, the data storage and management, and the relationships between the objects in the system. The implementation of the data model is carried out entirely with an open source database management system with a spatial extension. The web application is implemented using open source geospatial technologies with PostGIS as the database, Python for scripting, and Geoserver and javascript libraries for visualization and the client-side user-interface. The model can handle information from different study areas (currently, study areas from France, Romania, Italia and Poland are considered). Furthermore, the data model handles information about administrative units, projects accessible by different types of users, user-defined hazard types (floods, snow avalanches, debris flows, etc.), hazard intensity maps of different return periods, spatial probability maps, elements at risk maps (buildings, land parcels, linear features etc.), economic and population vulnerability information dependent on the hazard type and the type of the element at risk, in the form of vulnerability curves. The system has an inbuilt database of vulnerability curves, but users can also add their own ones. Included in the model is the management of a combination of different scenarios (e.g. related to climate change, land use change or population change) and alternatives (possible risk-reduction measures), as well as data-structures for saving the calculated economic or population loss or exposure per element at risk, aggregation of the loss and exposure using the administrative unit maps, and finally, producing the risk maps. The risk data can be used for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The

  16. Risk Assessment for NOTES

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    Navy System Safety regulations, NAVOSH regulations (Navy Ocupational , Safety and Health ), and the Environmental Safety regulations. 13 NAVSWC TR 91...significant fields lie over navigable waterways). Health No evidence of long-term health effects of EMP exposure to operating employees has been found, even...34 10 NAVSWC TR 91-328 Identify the risks and controls that would achieve the lowest reasonably achievable risk (consider safety, health , performance

  17. Extreme Environments and Extreme Science: Reliability and Risk Assessment for Autonomous Systems with Application to Polar Campaigns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trembanis, A.; Griffiths, G.

    2006-12-01

    Assessment of reliability and consequent risk to autonomous systems is an increasingly common and critical concern given the number of challenging new extreme environment research programs calling for the utilization of autonomous systems (e.g. AUVs, gliders, floats, etc.). The interest in using autonomous systems amongst the scientific community is particularly strong amongst polar research programs where so much vital area lies beyond the reach of traditional approaches. Therefore, the potential for scientific discovery is significantly increased, because of the very ability of autonomous systems to get to and gather information in the critical zones. The scientific merits and rewards of polar research are great but so too are the risks. There are risks both to mission success (i.e. science delivery) and risks to asset survival and recovery (i.e. retrieval). In polar settings the greatest increased risks are the complexities of operation (e.g. launch/recovery and retrieval) associated with sea ice and shelf ice. Even in open water settings the temporal and spatial dynamics of environmental conditions complicate the operation of autonomous systems. Very little systematic study and quantitative analysis has been conducted to evaluate the reliability and risk to autonomous systems in any operational setting let alone the demanding and increasingly sought after polar environments. Here we present some assessments of AUV reliability for polar and also non-polar settings drawing largely on datasets from both a large autonomous vehicle program (Autosub) and a small autonomous vehicle program (DOERRI) in order to illustrate key and common elements of reliability and risk that may provide insights to scientific end-users (PIs), program managers, and the developers and operators of other similar autonomous systems working in polar settings. An approach to risk management is laid out. Key risk mitigation elements are presented in categories of system stability and

  18. Teacher Alert System: A Guide for Teacher Managed Assessment of Students Who Are "At Risk" of School Failure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alberta Education Response Centre, Edmonton.

    The Teacher Alert System was designed in Alberta, Canada, for classroom teachers and school personnel concerned about the needs of "at risk" students. The guide can assist in the identification, assessment, and intervention process for children who have special needs. The student's problems may be related to learning, emotions, or…

  19. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  20. Designing for Risk Assessment Systems for Patient Triage in Primary Health Care: A Literature Review

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues

    2016-01-01

    Background This literature review covers original journal papers published between 2011 and 2015. These papers review the current status of research on the application of human factors and ergonomics in risk assessment systems’ design to cope with the complexity, singularity, and danger in patient triage in primary health care. Objective This paper presents a systematic literature review that aims to identify, analyze, and interpret the application of available evidence from human factors and ergonomics to the design of tools, devices, and work processes to support risk assessment in the context of health care. Methods Electronic search was performed on 7 bibliographic databases of health sciences, engineering, and computer sciences disciplines. The quality and suitability of primary studies were evaluated, and selected papers were classified according to 4 classes of outcomes. Results A total of 1845 papers were retrieved by the initial search, culminating in 16 selected for data extraction after the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria and quality and suitability evaluation. Conclusions Results point out that the study of the implications of the lack of understanding about real work performance in designing for risk assessment in health care is very specific, little explored, and mostly focused on the development of tools. PMID:27528543

  1. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  2. CHARACTERIZATION OF DATA VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY: HEALTH EFFECTS ASSESSMENTS IN THE INTEGRATED RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM (IRIS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In response to a Congressional directive contained in HR 106-379 regarding EPA's appropriations for FY2000, EPA has undertaken an evaluation of the characterization of data variability and uncertainty in its Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health effects information dat...

  3. CHARACTERIZATION OF DATA VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY: HEALTH EFFECTS ASSESSMENTS IN THE INTEGRATED RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM (IRIS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In response to a Congressional directive contained in HR 106-379 regarding EPA's appropriations for FY2000, EPA has undertaken an evaluation of the characterization of data variability and uncertainty in its Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health effects information dat...

  4. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System: An Assessment of Immediate Risk of Violence for Individuals with Offending and Challenging Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindsay, William R.; Murphy, Lesley; Smith, Gordon; Murphy, Daniel; Edwards, Zoe; Chittock, Chris; Grieve, Alan; Young, Steven J.

    2004-01-01

    Purpose: Research on dynamic risk assessment has developed over the last 10 years and a number of variables have emerged as being possible predictors of future sexual and violent offences. These variables include hostile attitude/anger and compliance with routine. In 2002, Thornton ("Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research & Treatment" 14, 139)…

  5. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System: An Assessment of Immediate Risk of Violence for Individuals with Offending and Challenging Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindsay, William R.; Murphy, Lesley; Smith, Gordon; Murphy, Daniel; Edwards, Zoe; Chittock, Chris; Grieve, Alan; Young, Steven J.

    2004-01-01

    Purpose: Research on dynamic risk assessment has developed over the last 10 years and a number of variables have emerged as being possible predictors of future sexual and violent offences. These variables include hostile attitude/anger and compliance with routine. In 2002, Thornton ("Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research & Treatment" 14, 139)…

  6. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  7. Trends in gestational weight gain: the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, 2000—2009

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Jonetta L.; Farr, Sherry L.; Dietz, Patricia M.; Sharma, Andrea J.; Barfield, Wanda D.; Robbins, Cheryl L.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Achieving adequate gestational weight gain (GWG) is important for optimal health of the infant and mother. We estimate current population-based trends of GWG. STUDY DESIGN We analyzed data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System for 124,348 women who delivered live infants in 14 states during 2000 through 2009. We examined prevalence and trends in GWG in pounds as a continuous variable, and within 1990 Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommendations (yes/no) as a dichotomous variable. We examined adjusted trends in mean GWG using multivariable linear regression and GWG within recommendations using multivariable multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS During 2000 through 2009, 35.8% of women gained within IOM GWG recommendations, 44.4% gained above, and 19.8% gained below. From 2000 through 2009, there was a biennial 1.0 percentage point decrease in women gaining within IOM GWG recommendations (P trend < .01) and a biennial 0.8 percentage point increase in women gaining above IOM recommendations (P trend < .01). The percentage of women gaining weight below IOM recommendations remained relatively constant from 2000 through 2009 (P trend = .14). The adjusted odds of gaining within IOM recommendations were lower in 2006 through 2007 (adjusted odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.85–0.96) and 2008 through 2009 (adjusted odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.85–0.96) relative to 2000 through 2001. CONCLUSION Overall, from 2000 through 2009 the percentage of women gaining within IOM recommendations slightly decreased while mean GWG slightly increased. Efforts are needed to develop and implement strategies to ensure that women achieve GWG within recommendations. PMID:25637844

  8. Risk indicators for dental caries using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS).

    PubMed

    Ismail, Amid I; Sohn, Woosung; Tellez, Marisol; Willem, Jenefer M; Betz, James; Lepkowski, James

    2008-02-01

    While national surveys have found that African-Americans have a higher prevalence and severity of dental caries than white-Americans, there are only a few descriptive studies of the prevalence and severity of dental caries in low-income urban African-Americans. This study assessed the prevalence, severity and determinants of dental caries, using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS). A representative sample of low-income families (a caregiver and a child aged 0-5 years) was selected from low-income census tracts in the city of Detroit, Michigan. Of the 12,655 randomly selected housing units, 10,695 were occupied and 9781 were successfully contacted (91.5%). There were 1386 families with eligible children in the contacted households; and of those, 1021 were interviewed and examined at a permanent examination center organized for this study. This represents an overall response rate of 73.7%. At the center, trained staff interviewed the main caregivers of the selected children, and trained and calibrated dentists examined the caregiver and her/his child. Data used in this study included information gathered from the social, behavioral and parenting questionnaires, the Block Food Frequency Questionnaire (total sugar intake), and data collected from community and census databases. Over 90% of the adults (ages 14-70 years, average 29.3) had at least one noncavitated carious lesion and 82.2% had at least one primary cavitated lesion. Negative binomial regression models found that the age of caregivers and the number of churches in neighborhoods were negatively associated with the number of noncavitated tooth surfaces. Cavitated tooth surfaces were positively associated with age, oral hygiene status, being worried about teeth, a recent visit to a dentist, and the number of grocery stores in the neighborhoods. However, the number of cavitated tooth surfaces was negatively associated with preventive dental visits, positive rating of oral health

  9. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  10. Assessing the risk of pesticide environmental impact in several Argentinian cropping systems with a fuzzy expert indicator.

    PubMed

    Arregui, María C; Sánchez, Daniel; Althaus, Rafael; Scotta, Roberto R; Bertolaccini, Isabel

    2010-07-01

    The introduction of transgenic soybean (Glycine max, L.) varieties resistant to glyphosate (GR soybeans) has rapidly expanded in Argentina, increasing pesticide use where only grasslands were previously cultivated. The authors compared an estimate of environmental risk for different crops and active ingredients using the IPEST index, which is based on a fuzzy-logic expert system. For IPEST calculations, four modules are defined, one reflecting the rate of application, the other three reflecting the risk for groundwater, surface water and air. The input variables are pesticide properties, site-specific conditions and characteristics of the pesticide application. The expert system calculates the value of modules according to the degree of membership of the input variables to the fuzzy subsets F (favourable) and U (unfavourable), and they can be aggregated following sets of decision rules. IPEST integrated values of >or= 7 reflect low environmental risk, and values of < 7 reflect high risk. Alfalfa, soybean and wheat showed IPEST values over 7 (low risk), while maize had the lowest IPEST values (high risk). Comparing active ingredients applied in annual and perennial crops, atrazine and acetochlor gave the highest risks of environmental contamination, and they are mainly used in maize. Groundwater was the most affected compartment. Fuzzy logic provided an easy tool combining different environmental components with pesticide properties to give a simple and accessible risk assessment. These findings provide information about active ingredients that should be replaced in order to protect water and air from pesticide contamination. Copyright (c) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

  11. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  12. A Safety Risk Assessment Methodology for Decision Support Systems with an Application to the Expedite Departure Path Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snyder, Phillip T.; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In support of the NASA Advanced Air Transportation Technologies Project, the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center has developed a methodology to perform safety risk assessments for air traffic control/air traffic management decision Support systems and concepts. Changes in controller, pilot, and/or airline dispatcher tasks that are affected by the decision support system are related to associated hazards. These hazards are then assessed either qualitatively or quantitatively in terms of likelihood of occurring and the impact if they do occur. Those items that show a potential safety hazard level increase can then have research plans developed to address those safety risks areas. An application of this methodology will he demonstrated using the AATT decision support tool Expedite Departure Path.

  13. A Safety Risk Assessment Methodology for Decision Support Systems with an Application to the Expedite Departure Path Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snyder, Phillip T.; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In support of the NASA Advanced Air Transportation Technologies Project, the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center has developed a methodology to perform safety risk assessments for air traffic control/air traffic management decision Support systems and concepts. Changes in controller, pilot, and/or airline dispatcher tasks that are affected by the decision support system are related to associated hazards. These hazards are then assessed either qualitatively or quantitatively in terms of likelihood of occurring and the impact if they do occur. Those items that show a potential safety hazard level increase can then have research plans developed to address those safety risks areas. An application of this methodology will he demonstrated using the AATT decision support tool Expedite Departure Path.

  14. The cerebrospinal fluid HIV risk score for assessing central nervous system activity in persons with HIV.

    PubMed

    Hammond, Edward R; Crum, Rosa M; Treisman, Glenn J; Mehta, Shruti H; Marra, Christina M; Clifford, David B; Morgello, Susan; Simpson, David M; Gelman, Benjamin B; Ellis, Ronald J; Grant, Igor; Letendre, Scott L; McArthur, Justin C

    2014-08-01

    Detectable human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is associated with central nervous system (CNS) complications. We developed the CSF HIV risk score through prediction modeling to estimate the risk of detectable CSF HIV RNA (threshold >50 copies/mL) to help identify persons who might benefit most from CSF monitoring. We used baseline data from 1,053 participants receiving combination antiretroviral therapy who were enrolled in the 6-center, US-based CNS HIV Antiretroviral Therapy Effects Research (CHARTER) prospective cohort in 2004-2007. Plasma HIV RNA, CNS penetration effectiveness, duration of combination antiretroviral therapy, medication adherence, race, and depression status were retained correlates of CSF HIV RNA, displaying good discrimination (C statistic = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87, 0.93) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.85). The CSF HIV risk score ranges from 0 to 42 points, with a mean of 15.4 (standard deviation, 7.3) points. At risk scores greater than 25, the probability of detecting CSF HIV RNA was at least 42.9% (95% CI: 36.6, 49.6). For each 1-point increase, the odds of detecting CSF HIV RNA increased by 26% (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.31; P < 0.01). The risk score correlates with detection of CSF HIV RNA. It represents an advance in HIV management and monitoring of CNS effects, providing a potentially useful tool for clinicians.

  15. The Cerebrospinal Fluid HIV Risk Score for Assessing Central Nervous System Activity in Persons With HIV

    PubMed Central

    Hammond, Edward R.; Crum, Rosa M.; Treisman, Glenn J.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Marra, Christina M.; Clifford, David B.; Morgello, Susan; Simpson, David M.; Gelman, Benjamin B.; Ellis, Ronald J.; Grant, Igor; Letendre, Scott L.; McArthur, Justin C.

    2014-01-01

    Detectable human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is associated with central nervous system (CNS) complications. We developed the CSF HIV risk score through prediction modeling to estimate the risk of detectable CSF HIV RNA (threshold >50 copies/mL) to help identify persons who might benefit most from CSF monitoring. We used baseline data from 1,053 participants receiving combination antiretroviral therapy who were enrolled in the 6-center, US-based CNS HIV Antiretroviral Therapy Effects Research (CHARTER) prospective cohort in 2004–2007. Plasma HIV RNA, CNS penetration effectiveness, duration of combination antiretroviral therapy, medication adherence, race, and depression status were retained correlates of CSF HIV RNA, displaying good discrimination (C statistic = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87, 0.93) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.85). The CSF HIV risk score ranges from 0 to 42 points, with a mean of 15.4 (standard deviation, 7.3) points. At risk scores greater than 25, the probability of detecting CSF HIV RNA was at least 42.9% (95% CI: 36.6, 49.6). For each 1-point increase, the odds of detecting CSF HIV RNA increased by 26% (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.31; P < 0.01). The risk score correlates with detection of CSF HIV RNA. It represents an advance in HIV management and monitoring of CNS effects, providing a potentially useful tool for clinicians. PMID:24966216

  16. Formaldehyde: assessing the risk

    SciTech Connect

    Hileman, B.

    1984-07-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency has listed formaldehyde as a priority chemical for regulatory assessment under section 4 (f) of the Toxic Substances Control Act. They will give priority consideration to human formaldehyde exposure in two areas because of the large numbers of people involved: clothing workers who handle textiles treated with formaldehyde-based resins and residents of mobile homes that contain formaldehyde-based resins in construction materials such as foam insulation. Much of the scientific data for determining risks associated with formaldehyde is conflicting and ambiguous, due in part to its presence as a normal metabolite in human biochemistry. Although the chemical induces squamous cell carcinoma in rats, epidemiological studies in occupationally exposed groups show no strong evidence of a causal relationship between formaldehyde and cancer. Dose-response data from an experiment sponsored by the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology are used as the primary basis in constructing risk assessments for the human population. The most conservative model and the one chosen by EPA is the linearized multistage model. When the results of this model are examined, most of the groups studied are subject to an unacceptable risk.

  17. Assessment of risks of EMI for personal medical electronic devices (PMEDs) from emissions of millimeter-wave security screening systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witters, Donald; Bassen, Howard; Guag, Joshua; Addissie, Bisrat; LaSorte, Nickolas; Rafai, Hazem

    2013-06-01

    This paper describes research and testing of a representative group of high priority body worn and implantable personal medical electronic devices (PMEDs) for exposure to millimeter wave (MMW) advanced imaging technology (AIT) security systems used at airports. The sample PMEDs included in this study were implantable cardiac pacemakers, ICDs, neurostimulators and insulin pumps. These PMEDs are designed and tested for susceptibility to electromagnetic interference (EMI) under the present standards for medical device electromagnetic compatibility (EMC). However, the present standards for medical equipment do not address exposure to the much higher frequency fields that are emitted by MMW security systems. Initial AIT emissions measurements were performed to assess the PMED and passenger exposures. Testing protocols were developed and testing methods were tailored to the type of PMED. In addition, a novel exposure simulation system was developed to allow controlled EMC testing without the need of the MMW AIT system. Methodology, test results, and analysis are presented, along with an assessment of the human exposure and risks for PMED users. The results on this study reveal no effects on the medical devices from the exposure to the MMW security system. Furthermore, the human exposure measurements and analysis showed levels well below applicable standard, and the risks for PMED users and others we assessed to be very low. These findings apply to the types of PMEDs used in the study though these findings might suggest that the risks for other, similar PMEDs would likely be similar.

  18. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  19. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  20. The risk assessment of sudden water pollution for river network system under multi-source random emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, D.

    2016-12-01

    Sudden water pollution accidents are unavoidable risk events that we must learn to co-exist with. In China's Taihu River Basin, the river flow conditions are complicated with frequently artificial interference. Sudden water pollution accident occurs mainly in the form of a large number of abnormal discharge of wastewater, and has the characteristics with the sudden occurrence, the uncontrollable scope, the uncertainty object and the concentrated distribution of many risk sources. Effective prevention of pollution accidents that may occur is of great significance for the water quality safety management. Bayesian networks can be applied to represent the relationship between pollution sources and river water quality intuitively. Using the time sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, the pollution sources state switching model, water quality model for river network and Bayesian reasoning is integrated together, and the sudden water pollution risk assessment model for river network is developed to quantify the water quality risk under the collective influence of multiple pollution sources. Based on the isotope water transport mechanism, a dynamic tracing model of multiple pollution sources is established, which can describe the relationship between the excessive risk of the system and the multiple risk sources. Finally, the diagnostic reasoning algorithm based on Bayesian network is coupled with the multi-source tracing model, which can identify the contribution of each risk source to the system risk under the complex flow conditions. Taking Taihu Lake water system as the research object, the model is applied to obtain the reasonable results under the three typical years. Studies have shown that the water quality risk at critical sections are influenced by the pollution risk source, the boundary water quality, the hydrological conditions and self -purification capacity, and the multiple pollution sources have obvious effect on water quality risk of the receiving water body

  1. Contamination of fish in UK fresh water systems: risk assessment for human consumption.

    PubMed

    Rose, Martin; Fernandes, Alwyn; Mortimer, David; Baskaran, Christina

    2015-03-01

    There is growing evidence that more people in the UK are consuming fish taken from inland waterways. This may be partly due to the increased numbers of migrants from Eastern Europe where this is part of traditional culture and partly because of a desire to try new foods encouraged by celebrity chefs. Fish can bioaccumulate environmental contaminants and so could contribute a significant amount to dietary exposure to these chemicals. This study examined the changing habits of anglers and consumers and characterised a range of existing and emerging contaminants in freshwater fish species with a view to determining current levels of occurrence and possible risk from consumption. The project was conducted in two stages. The first stage included (a) a study that identified freshwater systems that are contaminated either by anthropogenic activity or as a result of the geology of the area; and (b) socioeconomic research to assess the consumption habits of the public, particularly anglers, with respect to fish and shellfish from unmanaged inland waterways. Based on the outcome from the first stage, specific rivers and other inland waterways were chosen for investigation, along with the range of contaminants to be included in the analytical programme. Predicted contamination levels and prevalence of anglers were among the factors taken into consideration. The second stage of the project involved sampling and analysis of fish taken from selected locations on the chosen waterways. A range of fish species from a variety of inland water habitats were obtained. These were analysed for the following contaminants: heavy metals, chlorinated dioxins (PCDD/Fs), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), brominated dioxins (PBDD/Fs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), OC pesticides, organotin compounds and organo-fluorine compounds. Legal limits for contaminants apply only to food traded commercially, but some samples

  2. Risk assessment for safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadlock, Charles R.; Glaser, Peter E.

    The application of probabilistic risk-assessment techniques to space missions is discussed, with a focus on the International Space Station. The types of hazards likely to be caused by random events; design, operational, and management errors; and intentional intervention are examined along with their secondary effects; and the top-level safety requirements defined by NASA are considered. It is suggested that such qualitative stipulations be supplemented with more quantitative measures such as used in the nuclear-power industry; the major features of such quantitative methods are reviewed.

  3. Prognostic Health Monitoring System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Binh T. Pham; Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J Lybeck; Magdy S Tawfik

    2012-05-01

    Prognostic health monitoring (PHM) is a proactive approach to monitor the ability of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) to withstand structural, thermal, and chemical loadings over the SSCs planned service lifespans. The current efforts to extend the operational license lifetime of the aging fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years and beyond can benefit from a systematic application of PHM technology. Implementing a PHM system would strengthen the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce plant outage time, and reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, a nuclear power plant has thousands of SSCs, so implementing a PHM system that covers all SSCs requires careful planning and prioritization. This paper therefore focuses on a component selection that is based on the analysis of a component's failure probability, risk, and cost. Ultimately, the decision on component selection depend on the overall economical benefits arising from safety and operational considerations associated with implementing the PHM system.

  4. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  5. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  6. A probabilistic model for silver bioaccumulation in aquatic systems and assessment of human health risks.

    PubMed

    Warila, J; Batterman, S; Passino-Reader, D R

    2001-02-01

    Silver (Ag) is discharged in wastewater effluents and is also a component in a proposed secondary water disinfectant. A steady-state model was developed to simulate bioaccumulation in aquatic biota and assess ecological and human health risks. Trophic levels included phytoplankton, invertebrates, brown trout, and common carp. Uptake routes included water, food, or sediment. Based on an extensive review of the literature, distributions were derived for most inputs for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Three scenarios represented ranges of dilution and turbidity. Compared with the limited field data available, median estimates of Ag in carp (0.07-2.1 micrograms/g dry weight) were 0.5 to 9 times measured values, and all measurements were within the predicted interquartile range. Median Ag concentrations in biota were ranked invertebrates > phytoplankton > trout > carp. Biotic concentrations were highest for conditions of low dilution and low turbidity. Critical variables included Ag assimilation efficiency, specific feeding rate, and the phytoplankton bioconcentration factor. Bioaccumulation of Ag seems unlikely to result in toxicity to aquatic biota and humans consuming fish. Although the highest predicted Ag concentrations in water (> 200 ng/L) may pose chronic risks to early survival and development of salmonids and risks of argyria to subsistence fishers, these results occur under highly conservative conditions.

  7. A probabilistic model for silver bioaccumulation in aquatic systems and assessment of human health risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warila, James; Batterman, Stuart; Passino-Reader, Dora R.

    2001-01-01

    Silver (Ag) is discharged in wastewater effluents and is also a component in a proposed secondary water disinfectant. A steady-state model was developed to simulate bioaccumulation in aquatic biota and assess ecological and human health risks. Trophic levels included phytoplankton, invertebrates, brown trout, and common carp. Uptake routes included water, food, or sediment. Based on an extensive review of the literature, distributions were derived for most inputs for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Three scenarios represented ranges of dilution and turbidity. Compared with the limited field data available, median estimates of Ag in carp (0.07-2.1 Iμg/g dry weight) were 0.5 to 9 times measured values, and all measurements were within the predicted interquartile range. Median Ag concentrations in biota were ranked invertebrates > phytoplankton > trout > carp. Biotic concentrations were highest for conditions of low dilution and low turbidity. Critical variables included Ag assimilation eficiency, specific feeding rate, and the phytoplankton bioconcentration factor. Bioaccumulation of Ag seems unlikely to result in txicity to aquatic biota and humans consuming fish. Although the highest predicted Ag concentrations in water (>200 ng/L) may pose chronic risks to early survival and development of salmonids and risks of argyria to subsistence fishers, these results occur under highly conservative conditions.

  8. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  9. [Accumulation of Mercury in Soil-maize System of Non-ferrous Metals Smelting Area and Its Related Risk Assessment].

    PubMed

    Ji, Xiao-feng; Zheng, Na; Wang, Yang; Liu, Qiang; Zhang, Jing-jing

    2015-10-01

    Soil heavy metal pollution, especially the mercury pollution, has been widespread concern in non-ferrous metallurgical area. This study focused on the content, distribution and pollution status of Hg in maize soil of Huludao city. Meanwhile, Hg contents in the various organs of maize were analyzed. Hg concentration in soil ranged from 0.25 to 3.49 mg x kg(-1) with the average content of 1.78 mg x kg(-1), which was 48 times as high as the background value of Liaoning soil. Around 2-3m range of zinc plant, the pattern of spatial distribution showed that the content of Hg was gradually increased with the increase of the distance to Huludao zinc plant. The result of geoaccumulation index reflected that Hg pollution is up to moderate pollution level on the whole. 54. 6% of the total sample were belonged to the serious pollution level. The potential ecological risk index of Hakanson was applied to assess the ecological risk of Hg. The target hazard quotient method (THQ) was used to assess the health risk for human, the results revealed that there was no significant health risk by consumption corn. Mercury is very difficult to transport in soil-maize system, and there is no obvious health risks to adults. But the risk coefficient of children, which is up to 0.056. is much higher than adults.

  10. Cloud-Based Smart Health Monitoring System for Automatic Cardiovascular and Fall Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients.

    PubMed

    Melillo, P; Orrico, A; Scala, P; Crispino, F; Pecchia, L

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe the design and the preliminary validation of a platform developed to collect and automatically analyze biomedical signals for risk assessment of vascular events and falls in hypertensive patients. This m-health platform, based on cloud computing, was designed to be flexible, extensible, and transparent, and to provide proactive remote monitoring via data-mining functionalities. A retrospective study was conducted to train and test the platform. The developed system was able to predict a future vascular event within the next 12 months with an accuracy rate of 84 % and to identify fallers with an accuracy rate of 72 %. In an ongoing prospective trial, almost all the recruited patients accepted favorably the system with a limited rate of inadherences causing data losses (<20 %). The developed platform supported clinical decision by processing tele-monitored data and providing quick and accurate risk assessment of vascular events and falls.

  11. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    PubMed

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  12. Multisensor monitoring system for assessment of locust hazard risk in the Lake Balkhash drainage basin.

    PubMed

    Propastin, Pavel

    2012-12-01

    Satellite and ground-based data were combined in a monitoring system to quantify the link between climate conditions and the risk of locust infestations in the southern part of Lake Balkhash's drainage basin in the Republic of Kazakhstan. In this monitoring system, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from the SPOT-VGT satellite, was used for mapping potential locust habitats and monitoring their area throughout 1998 to 2007. TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason 1 altimeter data were used to track the interannual dynamics of water level in Balkhash Lake. Climate conditions were represented by weather records for air temperature and precipitation during the same period. The classification procedure, based on an analysis of multitemporal dynamics of SPOT-VGT NDVI values observed by individual vegetation classes, generated annual areas of ten land-cover types, which were then categorized as areas with low, medium, and high risk for locust infestation. Statistical analyses showed significant influences of the climatic parameters and the Balkhash Lake hydrological regime on the spatial extend of annual areas of potential locust habitats. The results also indicate that the linkages between locust infestation risk and environmental factors are characterized by time lags. The expansion of locust risk areas are usually preceded by dry, hot years and lower water levels in Balkhash Lake when larger areas of reed grass are free from seasonal flooding. Years with such conditions are favourable for locust outbreaks due to expansion of the habitat areas suitable for locust oviposition and nymphal development. In contrast, years with higher water levels in Balkhash Lake and lower temperature decrease the potential locust habitat area.

  13. Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Patricia A H

    2013-01-01

    It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed.

  14. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    PubMed

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  16. Resilience vs soft crisis: dynamic risk assessment in complex hybrid systems. Case history of Ginosa (Taranto, Southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parisi, Alessandro; Argentiero, Ilenia; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores; Pellicani, Roberta; Spilotro, Giuseppe

    2017-04-01

    Considering a natural system without human-induced modifications, its resilience can be altered by many natural drivers (e.g. geological characteristics, climate) and their spatial modifications over time. Therefore, natural hazardous phenomena could shift natural system over tipping points in an easier or more difficult way. So long as natural system does not involve human settlements or transport infrastructures, natural system risk assessment could not be a basic topic. Nowadays, human activities have modified many natural systems forming, as a result, hybrid systems (both human and natural), in which natural and human-induced drivers modify hybrid systems vulnerability in order to decrease or increase their resilience: scientists define this new age Anthropocene. In this context, dynamic risk assessment of hybrid systems is required in order to avoid disaster when hazardous phenomena occur, but it is a quite complex issue. In fact, soft crisis emerging signals are difficult to identify because of wrong risk perception and lack of communication. Furthermore, natural and human-induced modifications are rarely registered and supervised by governments, so it is fairly difficult defining how systems resilience changes over time. Inhabitants of Ginosa (Taranto, South of Italy) had modified many old rock dwellings over thousand years since the Middle Ages. Indeed, they had built up three-storey houses on three hypogeum levels of rock dwellings along the ravine. The Matrice street collapse in Ginosa is an example of how natural and human-induced spatial modifications over time had led a soft crisis to evolve in a disaster, fortunately without fatalities. This research aim is to revisit events before the Matrice street collapse on the 21st January 2014. The will is to define the relationship between the hybrid system resilience and soft crisis variation over time and how human and natural drivers were involved in the shift.

  17. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  18. Geospatial analyses and system architectures for the next generation of radioactive materials risk assessment and routing

    SciTech Connect

    Ganter, J.H.

    1996-02-01

    This paper suggests that inexorable changes in the society are presenting both challenges and a rich selection of technologies for responding to these challenges. The citizen is more demanding of environmental and personal protection, and of information. Simultaneously, the commercial and government information technologies markets are providing new technologies like commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software, common datasets, ``open`` GIS, recordable CD-ROM, and the World Wide Web. Thus one has the raw ingredients for creating new techniques and tools for spatial analysis, and these tools can support participative study and decision-making. By carrying out a strategy of thorough and demonstrably correct science, design, and development, can move forward into a new generation of participative risk assessment and routing for radioactive and hazardous materials.

  19. The unicellular fungal tool RhoTox for risk assessments in groundwater systems.

    PubMed

    Lategan, Maria Josie; Klare, William; Kidd, Sarah; Hose, Grant C; Nevalainen, Helena

    2016-10-01

    The recent inclusion of yeasts in environmental monitoring recognizes their ecological significance and sensitivity to toxicants. Here we present a robust and simple two-step toxicity assay and demonstrate the sensitivity of an ubiquitous groundwater yeast, Rhodotorula minuta, to a range of metals and metalloids. The test species was sensitive to copper with a 24h EC50 of 35µg Cu/L, followed in order of decreasing sensitivity by zinc, chromium (VI) and arsenic (EC50 4.40mg As (III)/L). The strain demonstrated an unexpected tolerance to chromium (VI), having an EC50 value (3.45mg Cr (VI)/L) similar to that of arsenic. The inclusion of a unicellular, microbial test-species into the suite of existing multicellular test species for toxicity evaluation is a key step towards strengthening the assessment of risk for groundwater ecosystems.

  20. Determining venous thromboembolic risk assessment for patients with trauma: the Trauma Embolic Scoring System.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Frederick B; Shackford, Steven R; Horst, Michael A; Miller, Jo Ann; Wu, Daniel; Bradburn, Eric; Rogers, Amelia; Krasne, Margaret

    2012-08-01

    This study aimed to determine the relative "weight" of risk factors known to be associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE) for patients with trauma based on injuries and comorbidities. A retrospective review of 16,608 consecutive admissions to a trauma center was performed. Patients were separated into those who developed VTE (n = 141) versus those who did not (16,467). Univariate analysis was performed for each risk factor reported in the trauma literature. Risk factors that were shown to be significant (p < 0.05) by univariate analysis underwent multivariate analysis to develop odds ratios for VTE. The Trauma Embolic Scoring System (TESS) was derived from the multivariate coefficients. The resulting TESS was compared with a data set from the National Trauma Data Bank (2002-2006) to determine its ability to predict VTE. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that age, Injury Severity Score, obesity, ventilator use for more than 3 days, and lower-extremity trauma were significant predictors of VTE in our patient population. The TESS was from 0 to 14, with the best prediction for those patients with a score of more than 6 (sensitivity, 81.6%; specificity, 84%). Overall, the model had excellent discrimination in predicting VTE with a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89. The VTE rates for TESS in the National Trauma Data Bank data set were similar for all integers except for 3 and 4, in which the VTE rates were significantly higher (3, 0.2% vs. 0.6%; 4, 0.4% vs. 1.0%). The TESS provides an objective measure of classifying VTE risk for patients with trauma. The TESS could allow informed decision making regarding prophylaxis strategies in patients with trauma.

  1. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment.

  2. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  3. Towards an integrated environmental risk assessment of emissions from ships' propulsion systems.

    PubMed

    Blasco, Julián; Durán-Grados, Vanesa; Hampel, Miriam; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Juan

    2014-05-01

    Large ships, particularly container ships, tankers, bulk carriers and cruise ships are significant individual contributors to air pollution. The European Environment Agency recognizes that air pollution in Europe is a local, regional and transborder problem caused by the emission of specific pollutants, which either directly or through chemical reactions lead to negative impacts, such as damage to human health and ecosystems. In the Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament emissions from ships are mentioned explicitly in the list of pressures and impacts that should be reduced or minimized to maintain or obtain a good ecological status. While SOx and NOx contribute mainly to ocean and soil acidification and climate change, PM (particularly ultrafine particles in the range of nanoparticles) has the potential to act more directly on human and ecosystem health. Thus, in terms of risk assessment, one of the most dangerous atmospheric aerosols for environmental and human health is in the size range of nanoparticles. To our knowledge, no study has been carried out on the effects of the fraction that ends up in the water column and to which aquatic and sediment-dwelling organisms are exposed. Therefore, an integrated environmental risk assessment of the effects of emissions from oceangoing ships including the aquatic compartment is necessary. Research should focus on the quantitative and qualitative determination of pollutant emissions from ships and their distribution and fate. This will include the in situ measurement of emissions in ships in order to derive realistic emission factors, and the application of atmospheric and oceanographic transportation and chemistry models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The legacy of pesticide pollution: An overlooked factor in current risk assessments of freshwater systems.

    PubMed

    Rasmussen, Jes J; Wiberg-Larsen, Peter; Baattrup-Pedersen, Annette; Cedergreen, Nina; McKnight, Ursula S; Kreuger, Jenny; Jacobsen, Dean; Kristensen, Esben A; Friberg, Nikolai

    2015-11-01

    We revealed a history of legacy pesticides in water and sediment samples from 19 small streams across an agricultural landscape. Dominant legacy compounds included organochlorine pesticides, such as DDT and lindane, the organophosphate chlorpyrifos and triazine herbicides such as terbutylazine and simazine which have long been banned in the EU. The highest concentrations of legacy pesticides were found in streams draining catchments with a large proportion of arable farmland suggesting that they originated from past agricultural applications. The sum of toxic units (SumTUD.magna) based on storm water samples from agriculturally impacted streams was significantly higher when legacy pesticides were included compared to when they were omitted. Legacy pesticides did not significantly change the predicted toxicity of water samples to algae or fish. However, pesticide concentrations in bed sediment and suspended sediment samples exceeded safety thresholds in 50% of the samples and the average contribution of legacy pesticides to the SumTUC.riparius was >90%. Our results suggest that legacy pesticides can be highly significant contributors to the current toxic exposure of stream biota, especially macroinvertebrate communities, and that those communities were primarily exposed to legacy pesticides via the sediment. Additionally, our results suggest that neglecting legacy pesticides in the risk assessment of pesticides in streams may severely underestimate the risk of ecological effects.

  5. Real-Time Safety Risk Assessment Based on a Real-Time Location System for Hydropower Construction Sites

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

    2014-01-01

    The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns. PMID:25114958

  6. Real-time safety risk assessment based on a real-time location system for hydropower construction sites.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Hanchen; Lin, Peng; Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

    2014-01-01

    The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns.

  7. Atmospheric Risk Assessment for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Allen; Vasavada, Ashwin; Cianciolo, Alicia; Barnes, Jeff; Tyler, Dan; Hinson, David; Lewis, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    In 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will pioneer the next generation of robotic Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems, by delivering the largest and most capable rover to date to the surface of Mars. As with previous Mars landers, atmospheric conditions during entry, descent, and landing directly impact the performance of MSL's EDL system. While the vehicle's novel guided entry system allows it to "fly out" a range of atmospheric uncertainties, its trajectory through the atmosphere creates a variety of atmospheric sensitivities not present on previous Mars entry systems and landers. Given the mission's stringent landing capability requirements, understanding the atmosphere state and spacecraft sensitivities takes on heightened importance. MSL's guided entry trajectory differs significantly from recent Mars landers and includes events that generate different atmospheric sensitivities than past missions. The existence of these sensitivities and general advancement in the state of Mars atmospheric knowledge has led the MSL team to employ new atmosphere modeling techniques in addition to past practices. A joint EDL engineering and Mars atmosphere science and modeling team has been created to identify the key system sensitivities, gather available atmospheric data sets, develop relevant atmosphere models, and formulate methods to integrate atmosphere information into EDL performance assessments. The team consists of EDL engineers, project science staff, and Mars atmospheric scientists from a variety of institutions. This paper provides an overview of the system performance sensitivities that have driven the atmosphere modeling approach, discusses the atmosphere data sets and models employed by the team as a result of the identified sensitivities, and introduces the tools used to translate atmospheric knowledge into quantitative EDL performance assessments.

  8. Atmospheric Risk Assessment for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Allen; Vasavada, Ashwin; Cianciolo, Alicia; Barnes, Jeff; Tyler, Dan; Hinson, David; Lewis, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    In 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will pioneer the next generation of robotic Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems, by delivering the largest and most capable rover to date to the surface of Mars. As with previous Mars landers, atmospheric conditions during entry, descent, and landing directly impact the performance of MSL's EDL system. While the vehicle's novel guided entry system allows it to "fly out" a range of atmospheric uncertainties, its trajectory through the atmosphere creates a variety of atmospheric sensitivities not present on previous Mars entry systems and landers. Given the mission's stringent landing capability requirements, understanding the atmosphere state and spacecraft sensitivities takes on heightened importance. MSL's guided entry trajectory differs significantly from recent Mars landers and includes events that generate different atmospheric sensitivities than past missions. The existence of these sensitivities and general advancement in the state of Mars atmospheric knowledge has led the MSL team to employ new atmosphere modeling techniques in addition to past practices. A joint EDL engineering and Mars atmosphere science and modeling team has been created to identify the key system sensitivities, gather available atmospheric data sets, develop relevant atmosphere models, and formulate methods to integrate atmosphere information into EDL performance assessments. The team consists of EDL engineers, project science staff, and Mars atmospheric scientists from a variety of institutions. This paper provides an overview of the system performance sensitivities that have driven the atmosphere modeling approach, discusses the atmosphere data sets and models employed by the team as a result of the identified sensitivities, and introduces the tools used to translate atmospheric knowledge into quantitative EDL performance assessments.

  9. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  10. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  11. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  12. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  13. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  14. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area.

  15. Geographical Information Systems risk assessment models for zoonotic fascioliasis in the South American Andes region.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M V; Sainz-Elipe, S; Nieto, P; Malone, J B; Mas-Coma, S

    2005-03-01

    The WHO recognises Fasciola hepatica to be an important human health problem. The Andean countries of Peru, Bolivia and Chile are those most severely affected by this distomatosis, though areas of Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela are also affected. As part of a multidisciplinary project, we present results of use of a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) forecast model to conduct an epidemiological analysis of human and animal fasciolosis in the central part of the Andes mountains. The GIS approach enabled us to develop a spatial and temporal epidemiological model to map the disease in the areas studied and to classify transmission risk into low, moderate and high risk areas so that areas requiring the implementation of control activities can be identified. Current results are available on a local scale for: (1) the northern Bolivian Altiplano, (2) Puno in the Peruvian Altiplano, (3) the Cajamarca and Mantaro Peruvian valleys, and (4) the Ecuadorian provinces of Azuay, Cotopaxi and Imbabura. Analysis of results demonstrated the validity of a forecast model that combines use of climatic data to calculate of forecast indices with remote sensing data, through the classification of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps.

  16. Environmental risk assessment on capsaicin used as active substance for antifouling system on ships.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianbing; Shi, Ting; Yang, Xiaoling; Han, Wenya; Zhou, Yunrui

    2014-06-01

    Biodegradation experiments were carried out with capsaicin to evaluate its degradability. The results show that capsaicin was readily biodegradable under aerobic conditions. The values of Kow and the calculated bioconcentration factor indicate that capsaicin have a low potential for bioconcentration. The fish acute toxicity tests conducted with Brachydanio rerio show LC50 for capsaicin was 5.98 mg L(-1). The tests of alga growth inhibition conducted with Selenastrum capricornutum suggest EC50 for capsaicin was 114 mg L(-1). The calculated PNEC (Predicted No Effect Concentration) was 4.9×10(-4) mg L(-1). The average PEC (Predicted Environmental Concentration) for OECD-EU commercial harbor and marina were 3.99×10(-6) and 2.49×10(-5) mg L(-1), respectively. These indicate that the PEC was much less than the PNEC for capsaicin. The low Kp value of capsaicin suggests the data about the risk of capsaicin to sediment organisms can be waived. According to the results from the analysis of the degradation, bioaccumulation, toxicity and accumulation in sediment, it can be concluded that capsaicin used as active substance for antifouling system on ships poses relatively low risk to marine environment.

  17. Establishment of a bioassay system for cancer risk assessment in energy technology

    SciTech Connect

    Ts'o, P.O.P.; Bruce, S.A.; Brown, A.

    1983-09-01

    Separate abstracts were prepared for 20 papers in this report. For several years the Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), has supported a research program aimed at developing new experimental approaches for the improvement of cancer risk assessments. The central issue is to overcome the organizational, species and other barriers that make it difficult to extrapolate laboratory-based data to predict risk to man. Most of the participants at the meeting are involved in research aimed at understanding the mechanism(s) of chemical carcinogenesis. Complex mixtures of chemicals are associated with many energy technologies. DOE's initial program emphasis focused on semi-applied research aimed at quantitative evaluation of carcinogenic activity of complex materials. Since much progress has been made in DOE integrated technology-specific chemical-biological characterization studies, the number and kinds of chemicals of concern has been reduced to a relatively few well-defined classes. Although the classes of compounds seem to be unique to some of the synfuel technologies, they are quite similar to compounds of general interest, for example, poly-nuclear aromatic hydrocarbons. Special emphasis was placed on molecular and cellular dosimetry as one of the key requirements for quantitative comparison of effects at the cell level in vivo and in vitro. Although it is relatively easy to measure cell, tissue, organ and whole organism doses associated with radiation exposures, we are just learning how to do this for chemical agents. Several methods have been developed in the past several years which can be used.

  18. Development of a Software Framework for System-Level Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, R.

    2013-02-28

    The overall purpose of this project was to identify, evaluate, select, develop, and test a suite of enhancements to the GoldSim software program, in order to make it a better tool for use in support of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) projects. The GoldSim software is a foundational tool used by scientists at NETL and at other laboratories and research institutions to evaluate system-level risks of proposed CCS projects. The primary product of the project was a series of successively improved versions of the GoldSim software, supported by an extensive User’s Guide. All of the enhancements were tested by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and several of the enhancements have already been incorporated into the CO{sub 2}-PENS sequestration model.

  19. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  20. Pathway Aggregation in the Risk Assessment of Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) of Nuclear Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Aldemir, Tunc; Denning, Richard; Catalyurek, Umit; Yilmaz, Alper; Yue, Meng; Cheng, Lap-Yan

    2015-01-23

    The framework for Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR & PP) evaluation is to define a set of challenges, to obtain the system responses, and to assess the outcomes. The assessment of outcomes heavily relies on pathways, defined as sequences of events or actions that could potentially be followed by a State or a group of individuals in order to achieve a proliferation objective, with the defined threats as initiating events. There may be large number of segments connecting pathway stages (e.g. acquisition, processing, and fabrication for PR) which can lead to even larger number of pathways or scenarios through possible different combinations of segment connections, each with associated probabilities contributing to the overall risk. Clustering of these scenarios in specified stage attribute intervals is important for their tractable analysis and outcome assessment. A software tool for scenario generation and clustering (OSUPR) is developed that utilizes the PRCALC code developed at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for scenario generation and the K- means, mean shift and adaptive mean shift algorithms as possible clustering schemes. The results of the study using the Example Sodium Fast Breeder as an example system show that clustering facilitates the probabilistic or deterministic analysis of scenarios to identify system vulnerabilities and communication of the major risk contributors to stakeholders. The results of the study also show that the mean shift algorithm has the most potential for assisting the analysis of the scenarios generated by PRCALC.

  1. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  2. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Ecological risk assessment of the fish community of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, G.; Barnthouse, L.; Efroymson, R.; Jaeger, H.; Beauchamp, J.

    1995-12-31

    The CERCLA remedial investigation for the Clinch River/Poplar Creek included the fish community as an endpoint. The assessment endpoint was defined as a 20% reduction in the species richness or abundance of the fish community in the Poplar Creek embayment or in any of three reaches of the Clinch River. Screening of chemicals in water against benchmarks determined that Ag, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Zn, PCBs, and bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate were contaminants of potential ecological concern (COPECs). Comparison of the distributions of COPEC concentrations with the distributions of literature toxicity values indicated that none of the COPECs was routinely toxic but episodic concentrations (< 10% of the distribution) of some COPECs were in the toxic range. Aqueous toxicity tests gave unclear results except for regularly high lethality to fish embryos in Poplar Creek. Bioindicators analysis found elevated histopathologies and disrupted reproductive indicators in Centrarchids from Poplar Creek, but their implications for the community are unclear. Body burdens of PCBs in some channel catfish exceeded levels associated with sublethal effects on that species in the laboratory. Electrofishing and gill netting found that the fish community of Poplar Creek had low species number and abundance, but habitat quality was also low. These mixed results present a challenge to ecological risk characterization based on weight-of-evidence. The process of weighing the evidence will be presented.

  4. Assessment of the ecotoxicological risk of combined sewer overflows for an aquatic system using a coupled "substance and bioassay" approach.

    PubMed

    Gooré Bi, Eustache; Monette, Frederic; Gasperi, Johnny; Perrodin, Yves

    2015-03-01

    Very few tools are available for assessing the impact of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) on receiving aquatic environments. The main goal of the study was to assess the ecotoxicological risk of CSOs for a surface aquatic ecosystem using a coupled "substance and bioassay" approach. Wastewater samples from the city of Longueuil, Canada CSO were collected for various rainfall events during one summer season and analyzed for a large panel of substances (n = 116). Four bioassays were also conducted on representative organisms of surface aquatic systems (Pimephales promelas, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia magna, and Oncorhynchus mykiss). The analytical data did not reveal any ecotoxicological risk for St. Lawrence River organisms, mainly due to strong effluent dilution. However, the substance approach showed that, because of their contribution to the ecotoxicological hazard posed by the effluent, total phosphorus (Ptot), aluminum (Al), total residual chlorine, chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), pyrene, ammonia (N-NH4 (+)), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) require more targeted monitoring. While chronic ecotoxicity tests revealed a potential impact of CSO discharges on P. promelas and C. dubia, acute toxicity tests did not show any effect on D. magna or O. mykiss, thus underscoring the importance of chronic toxicity tests as part of efforts aimed at characterizing effluent toxicity. Ultimately, the study leads to the conclusion that the coupled "substance and bioassay" approach is a reliable and robust method for assessing the ecotoxicological risk associated with complex discharges such as CSOs.

  5. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  6. Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smart, Christian

    1998-01-01

    During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen

  7. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  8. NASA's Risk Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  9. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  10. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  11. Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baert, K.; Francois, K.; de Meulenaer, B.; Devlieghere, F.

    A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999).

  12. Degrees of connectivity: Systems model for upstream risk assessment and mitigation.

    PubMed

    Gambatese, John; AlOmari, Kasim

    2016-08-01

    There is growing recognition that in order to further improve safety performance, attention needs to be given beyond the immediate working conditions and worker actions. A systems approach to construction safety enables considering: multiple project elements simultaneously; connections between different elements; and all system elements affected by safety risk. This paper describes recent and current research to conceptualize a typical building project in terms of connections between workers, activities, and design elements, and to verify and analyze impacts of the design and worker interactions on worker safety. Prior research provides the basis for a network tying the design elements, construction activities, and work crews on a typical building project together along with the extent of interaction between each of the system elements in terms of safety. In conjunction with this systems approach, the researchers propose a concept for viewing and managing construction safety through four different types of connections, or "degrees of connectivity," between the different workers, activities, and design elements in the system. The degrees of connectivity are defined as: interacting with the design element during its construction (DoC #1); interacting with the design element in its final form to attach another component to it (DoC #2) or by working in the vicinity of it (DoC #3); and indirectly interacting with the design element through another worker (DoC #4). To support and verify the presence of the concept in practice, the researchers conducted a survey of construction personnel. The survey results confirm that the four different degrees of connectivity are present and felt during construction operations, and indicate that attention should be given to all design elements, activities, and workers to which a worker is "connected". According to the survey respondents, DoC's #1 and #2 are recognized as the most widely present on construction sites. Eighty percent of

  13. A sonographic scoring system to assess the risk of thyroid malignancy.

    PubMed

    Pathirana, A A; Bandara, K G M W; Faleel, M A; Kuruppumullage, S D; Solangarachchi, N; Rupasinghe, R D; Karunaratne, N P N; Ranasinghe, D D; Epa, W A; Thusyanthan, V

    2016-03-01

    Prediction of thyroid malignancy with fine needle aspiration cytology or individual ultrasound characteristics has several limitations. This study evaluates the usefulness of a combination of ultrasound characteristics in predicting malignancy in patients with thyroid nodules. We assessed 189 thyroid nodules using ultrasonography and histology. Each nodule was assigned a score based on ultrasonographic characteristics. This score was compared with histology to identify ability to predict malignancy. There were 28 malignant nodules. The scoring system was appropriate for clinical use, obtaining an area under ROC curve of 0.822 [p< 0.0001] 95% confidence. FNAC of nodules with a score of more than 4 can be recommended (100% sensitivity). Nodules with a score less than 8 can be offered total thyroidectomy when FNAC is inconclusive (97.5% sensitivity). A combination of ultrasonographic criteria increase the accuracy of predicting malignancy in thyroid nodules.

  14. Integrated risk assessment and endocrine disrupters.

    PubMed

    Bridges, J W; Bridges, Olga

    2004-12-01

    1. The procedures currently employed for risk assessment are unlikely to be sustainable in the future for a variety of reasons. A number of actions are needed to remedy the situation and the most important of these actions are: * to improve access to existing data; * to introduce a prioritisation system based on exposure assessment; * to co-ordinate and harmonise approaches of different organisations involved in risk assessment. 2. Integration of information and methodologies between human health risk assessment and ecological risk assessment (integrated risk assessment) is advocated in this paper as one of the most important steps towards a holistic and effective way of conducting a risk assessment. 3. A framework is proposed for identification of agents for which an integrated risk assessment would be of particular value. Close collaboration across disciplines and across countries is necessary for the potential of integrated risk assessment to be realised in practice. The practicality of applying integrated risk assessment to endocrine disrupting agents is presently being investigated in an EU funded multi-laboratory collaborative study (CREDO).

  15. Validation of risk assessment scoring systems for an audit of elective surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in elderly patients: an audit.

    PubMed

    Wakabayashi, Hisao; Sano, Takanori; Yachida, Shinichi; Okano, Keiichi; Izuishi, Kunihiko; Suzuki, Yasuyuki

    2007-10-01

    The goal of this study was to validate the usefulness of risk assessment scoring systems for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery for elderly patients. The validated scoring systems used were the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality (P-POSSUM). This study involved 153 consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who underwent elective gastric or colorectal surgery between July 2004 and June 2006. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prior to each surgery. The predicted mortality and morbidity risks were calculated using each of the scoring systems and were used to obtain the observed/predicted (O/E) mortality and morbidity ratios. New logistic regression equations for morbidity and mortality were then calculated using the scores from the POSSUM system and applied retrospectively. The O/E ratio for morbidity obtained from POSSUM score was 0.23. The O/E ratios for mortality from the POSSUM score and the P-POSSUM were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively. Utilizing the new equations using scores from the POSSUM, the O/E ratio increased to 0.88. Both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predicted the morbidity and mortality in elective gastrointestinal surgery for malignant tumors in elderly patients. However, if a surgical unit makes appropriate calculations using its own patient series and updates these equations, the POSSUM system can be useful in the risk assessment for surgery in elderly patients.

  16. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  17. Development of a site-specific Ecological Risk Assessment for contaminated sites: part II. A multi-criteria based system for the selection of bioavailability assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Semenzin, Elena; Critto, Andrea; Carlon, Claudio; Rutgers, Michiel; Marcomini, Antonio

    2007-06-15

    A comparison procedure based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and expert judgment was developed in order to allow the comparison of bioavailability tests to implement the chemical Line of Evidence (LoE) within a TRIAD based site-specific Ecological Risk Assessment framework including three tires of investigation. The proposed methodology was included in the Module 1 of the Decision Support System DSS-ERAMANIA and the obtained rank supported the selection of a suitable set of available tests to be applied to the case study. A simplified application of the proposed procedure is described and results obtained by the system software are discussed.

  18. Health risk assessment of heavy metals in soil-plant system amended with biogas slurry in Taihu basin, China.

    PubMed

    Bian, Bo; Lin, Cheng; Lv, Lin

    2016-09-01

    Biogas slurry is a product of anaerobic digestion of manure that has been widely used as a soil fertilizer. Although the use for soil fertilizer is a cost-effective solution, it has been found that repeated use of biogas slurry that contains high heavy metal contents can cause pollution to the soil-plant system and risk to human health. The objective of this study was to investigate effects of biogas slurry on the soil-plant system and the human health. We analyzed the heavy metal concentrations (including As, Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr and Cd) in 106 soil samples and 58 plant samples in a farmland amended with biogas slurry in Taihu basin, China. Based on the test results, we assessed the potential human health risk when biogas slurry containing heavy metals was used as a soil fertilizer. The test results indicated that the Cd and Pb concentrations in soils exceeded the contamination limits and Cd exhibited the highest soil-to-root migration potential. Among the 11 plants analyzed, Kalimeris indica had the highest heavy metal absorption capacity. The leafy vegetables showed higher uptake of heavy metals than non-leafy vegetables. The non-carcinogenic risks mainly resulted from As, Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn through plant ingestion exposure. The integrated carcinogenic risks were associated with Cr, As and Cd in which Cr showed the highest risk while Cd showed the lowest risk. Among all the heavy metals analyzed, As and Cd appeared to have a lifetime health threat, which thus should be attenuated during production of biogas slurry to mitigate the heavy metal contamination.

  19. Heart Health Risk Assessment System: A Nonintrusive Proposal Using Ontologies and Expert Rules

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    According to the World Health Organization, the world's leading cause of death is heart disease, with nearly two million deaths per year. Although some factors are not possible to change, there are some keys that help to prevent heart diseases. One of the most important keys is to keep an active daily life, with moderate exercise. However, deciding what a moderate exercise is or when a slightly abnormal heart rate value is a risk depends on the person and the activity. In this paper we propose a context-aware system that is able to determine the activity the person is performing in an unobtrusive way. Then, we have defined ontology to represent the available knowledge about the person (biometric data, fitness status, medical information, etc.) and her current activity (level of intensity, heart rate recommended for that activity, etc.). With such knowledge, a set of expert rules based on this ontology are involved in a reasoning process to infer levels of alerts or suggestions for the users when the intensity of the activity is detected as dangerous for her health. We show how this approach can be accomplished by using only everyday devices such as a smartphone and a smartwatch. PMID:25045715

  20. Heart health risk assessment system: a nonintrusive proposal using ontologies and expert rules.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Valverde, Teresa; Muñoz, Andrés; Arcas, Francisco; Bueno-Crespo, Andrés; Caballero, Alberto

    2014-01-01

    According to the World Health Organization, the world's leading cause of death is heart disease, with nearly two million deaths per year. Although some factors are not possible to change, there are some keys that help to prevent heart diseases. One of the most important keys is to keep an active daily life, with moderate exercise. However, deciding what a moderate exercise is or when a slightly abnormal heart rate value is a risk depends on the person and the activity. In this paper we propose a context-aware system that is able to determine the activity the person is performing in an unobtrusive way. Then, we have defined ontology to represent the available knowledge about the person (biometric data, fitness status, medical information, etc.) and her current activity (level of intensity, heart rate recommended for that activity, etc.). With such knowledge, a set of expert rules based on this ontology are involved in a reasoning process to infer levels of alerts or suggestions for the users when the intensity of the activity is detected as dangerous for her health. We show how this approach can be accomplished by using only everyday devices such as a smartphone and a smartwatch.

  1. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  2. Results of research on development of an intellectual information system of bankruptcy risk assessment of the enterprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Telipenko, E.; Chernysheva, T.; Zakharova, A.; Dumchev, A.

    2015-10-01

    The article represents research results about the knowledge base development for the intellectual information system for the bankruptcy risk assessment of the enterprise. It is described the process analysis of the knowledge base development; the main process stages, some problems and their solutions are given. The article introduces the connectionist model for the bankruptcy risk assessment based on the analysis of industrial enterprise financial accounting. The basis for this connectionist model is a three-layer perceptron with the back propagation of error algorithm. The knowledge base for the intellectual information system consists of processed information and the processing operation method represented as the connectionist model. The article represents the structure of the intellectual information system, the knowledge base, and the information processing algorithm for neural network training. The paper shows mean values of 10 indexes for industrial enterprises; with the help of them it is possible to carry out a financial analysis of industrial enterprises and identify correctly the current situation for well-timed managerial decisions. Results are given about neural network testing on the data of both bankrupt and financially strong enterprises, which were not included into training and test sets.

  3. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    PubMed

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  4. The modified "Rockfall Hazard Rating System": a new tool for roads risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budetta, P.

    2003-04-01

    This paper contains a modified method for the analysis of rockfall hazard along roads and motorways. The method is derived from that one developed by Pierson et alii at the Oregon State Highway Division. The Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. An exponential scoring graph is used to represent the increase in hazard that is reflected in the nine categories forming the classification (slope height, ditch effectiveness, average vehicle risk, percent of decision site distance, roadway width, geological character, quantity of rockfall/event, climate and rock fall history). The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the consequences ("cost of failure"). In the modified method, the rating for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "decision sight distance", "rodway width", "geologic characteristic" and "climate and water circulation" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of the Romana's Slope Mass Rating improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring determination for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (CNR) have been used. The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the "decision sight distance" greatly affects the results. An application of the method to a 2-km-long section of the Sorrentine road (n° 145) in Southern Italy was pointed out. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied on seven cross section traces of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road and the

  5. A Method and a Tool for Assessing In-Orbit Debris-Related Risk for Space Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elie, Andre; Kervarc, Romain; Carle, Patrice; Prudhomme, Stephanie; Kempf, Scott; Schaefer, Frank; Donath, Therese

    2013-08-01

    This paper addresses a methodology taking space-debris-related risk for Low, Medium and Geostationary Earth Orbit space missions into account, and aims at assessing the collision risk not only as a physical threat supported by a physical spacecraft, but as a hazardous effect on the space system mission. The goal is to develop a tool exploiting such physical simulation results (i.e. effects of sustainable impacts on the spacecraft in case of small debris, cost of the spacecraft avoidance manoeuvres in case of large debris) in a given debris scenario, to compute the repercussion of these effects on the space mission, and to perform comparisons between possible debris scenarios. This work is part of the PÇ-ROTECT (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats) project, initiated in March 2011.

  6. Does an objective system-based approach improve assessment of perioperative risk in children? A preliminary evaluation of the 'NARCO'.

    PubMed

    Malviya, S; Voepel-Lewis, T; Chiravuri, S D; Gibbons, K; Chimbira, W T; Nafiu, O O; Reynolds, P I; Tait, A R

    2011-03-01

    This study evaluated whether an objective tool would provide a more reliable and valid assessment of perioperative risk compared with the ASA-physical status (ASA-PS) in children. A system-based risk assessment tool was developed using these categories: Neurological, Airway, Respiratory, Cardiovascular, and Other (NARCO) with a subcomponent grading surgical severity (SS). Anaesthesiologists reviewed the preoperative assessments and assigned NARCO, SS, and ASA-PS scores independently. Perioperative outcomes were recorded by trained observers. Validity and reliability of the tools were evaluated. NARCO correlated with ASA-PS (ρ=0.664; P<0.01) supporting its criterion validity. Inter-rater reliability of the measures was supported (intraclass correlation coefficients 0.71-0.96; κ 0.43-0.87) except for the Airway category. Measures of exact agreement were slightly better for NARCO compared with ASA-PS. NARCO, SS, and ASA-PS scores correlated significantly with perioperative escalation of care, adverse events (AE), hospital length of stay, and admission status. Correlations between NARCO and ASA-PS and outcomes improved when SS was factored into their coding. There were significant, but low, correlations between all measures and mortality. The odds of having escalation of care, AE, and mortality were 5-47 times greater among children with higher risk scores. Findings suggest that all measures of outcome have acceptable to excellent reliability with a slight improvement in agreement for the NARCO compared with the ASA-PS. This study supports the validity of both the NARCO and the ASA-PS in predicting perioperative risk in children with a slight improvement in correlations when combined with the SS score.

  7. Improving ecological risk assessment of persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals by using an integrated modeling system - An example assessing chloroparaffins in riverine environments.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chemical risk assessment (CRA) is primarily carried out at the screening level relying on empirical relationships between chemical properties and tested toxicity effects. Ultimately, risk to aquatic ecosystems is strongly dependent on actual exposure, which depends on chemical pr...

  8. Improving ecological risk assessment of persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals by using an integrated modeling system - An example assessing chloroparaffins in riverine environments.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chemical risk assessment (CRA) is primarily carried out at the screening level relying on empirical relationships between chemical properties and tested toxicity effects. Ultimately, risk to aquatic ecosystems is strongly dependent on actual exposure, which depends on chemical pr...

  9. Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology (External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the Next Generation of <span class=Risk Assessment (External Review Draft)" vspace = "5" hspace="5" align="right" border="1" /> EPA is releasing a draft report "Next Generation Risk Assessment: I...

  10. Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology (External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the Next Generation of <span class=Risk Assessment (External Review Draft)" vspace = "5" hspace="5" align="right" border="1" /> EPA is releasing a draft report "Next Generation Risk Assessment: I...

  11. NASA's Risk Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  12. An analytics based clinical decision support system for CVD risk assessment and management.

    PubMed

    Anand, Shreya; Patil, Ravindra B; Krishnamoorthy, P

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of disability and premature death throughout the world. Acute coronary events and other cardiovascular events frequently occur suddenly, and are often fatal before medical care can be given. Risk factor modification can reduce clinical events and premature death in people with established cardiovascular disease as well as in those who are at high cardiovascular risk due to one or more risk factors. In this work, India specific World Health Organization-International Society of Hypertension (WHO-ISH) guidelines has been implemented to stratify the subjects by their risk profile. It provides simplified approach to detect those people at high risk and provides guidance on what should be done for prevention of heart attack. Further, based on the risk stratification, lifestyle coaching, medication management and the next tests are advised to the subjects. This approach will help in early detection of cardiovascular risk subjects and provide necessary interventions at appropriate time frame. Also, it acts as motivation to the individuals to comply with recommended lifestyle changes.

  13. SERAFM: AN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR EVALUATING WILDLIFE EXPOSURE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH MERCURY-CONTAMINATED SEDIMENT IN LAKE AND RIVER SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A spreadsheet model, SERAFM, Spreadsheet-based Ecological Risk Assessment for the Fate of Mercury, was developed that can be used as a risk assessment tool for mercury contaminated ecosystems. In this tool, process-based understanding of the chemical, physical, and biological pro...

  14. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  15. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  16. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: INDUSTRIAL PROCESS ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Industrial Process Cooling Towers source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Industrial Process Cooling Towers source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  17. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  18. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  19. Older Adults' Perceptions of and Preferences for a Fall Risk Assessment System: Exploring Stages of Acceptance Model.

    PubMed

    Galambos, Colleen; Rantz, Marilyn; Back, Jessie; Jun, Jung Sim; Skubic, Marjorie; Miller, Steven J

    2017-02-09

    Aging in place is a preferred and cost-effective living option for older adults. Research indicates that technology can assist with this goal. Information on consumer preferences will help in technology development to assist older adults to age in place. The study aim was to explore the perceptions and preferences of older adults and their family members about a fall risk assessment system. Using a qualitative approach, this study examined the perceptions, attitudes, and preferences of 13 older adults and five family members about their experience living with the fall risk assessment system during five points in time. Themes emerged in relation to preferences and expectations about the technology and how it fits into daily routines. We were able to capture changes that occurred over time for older adult participants. Results indicated that there was acceptance of the technology as participants adapted to it. Two themes were present across the five points in time-safety and usefulness. Five stages of acceptance emerged from the data from preinstallation to 2 years postinstallation. Identified themes, stages of acceptance, and design and development considerations are discussed.

  20. Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone

    PubMed Central

    Iurian, Sonia; Turdean, Luana; Tomuta, Ioan

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal) delivery, containing Kollidon® SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC), or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio (X1), the type of hydrophilic polymer (X2), and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer (X3) on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h (Y1–Y9). Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring. PMID:28331293

  1. Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone.

    PubMed

    Iurian, Sonia; Turdean, Luana; Tomuta, Ioan

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal) delivery, containing Kollidon(®) SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC), or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio (X1), the type of hydrophilic polymer (X2), and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer (X3) on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h (Y1-Y9). Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring.

  2. [Study on building index system of risk assessment of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine based on AHP-fuzzy neural network].

    PubMed

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming; Fu, Yingkun

    2011-10-01

    Currently massive researches have been launched about the safety, efficiency and economy of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine (CPM) proprietary Chinese medicine, but it was lack of a comprehensive interpretation. Establishing the risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model of CPM is the key to solve drug safety problems and protect people's health. The clinical risk factors of CPM exist similarities with the Western medicine, can draw lessons from foreign experience, but also have itself multi-factor multivariate multi-level complex features. Drug safety risk assessment for the uncertainty and complexity, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to empower the index weights, AHP-based fuzzy neural network to build post-marketing CPM risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model and constantly improving the application of traditional Chinese medicine characteristic is accord with the road and feasible beneficial exploration.

  3. Benefit-risk assessment of the levonorgestrel intrauterine system in contraception.

    PubMed

    Backman, Tiina

    2004-01-01

    The levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (IUS) is a long-acting, fully reversible method of contraception. It is one of the most effective forms of contraception available, and combines the advantages of both hormonal and intrauterine contraception. The levonorgestrel-releasing IUS also gives the users many non-contraceptive benefits: the amount of menstrual bleeding and the number of days of menstrual bleeding are reduced, which makes it suitable for the treatment of menorrhagia (heavy menstrual blood loss). Dysmenorrhoea (painful menstruation) and premenstrual symptoms are also relieved. In addition, the levonorgestrel-releasing IUS provides protection for the endometrium during hormone replacement therapy. The local release of levonorgestrel into the uterine cavity results in a strong uniform suppression of the endometrial epithelium as the epithelium becomes insensitive to estradiol released from the ovaries. This accounts for the reduction in menstrual blood loss. All possible patterns of bleeding are seen among users of the levonorgestrel-releasing IUS; however, most of the women who experience total amenorrhoea continue to ovulate. The first months of use are often characterised by irregular, scanty bleeding, which in most cases resolves spontaneously. The menstrual pattern and fertility return to normal soon after the levonorgestrel-releasing IUS is removed. The contraceptive efficacy is high with 5-year failure rates of 0.5-1.1 per 100 users. The absolute number of ectopic pregnancies is low, as is the rate per 1000 users. The levonorgestrel-releasing IUS is equally effective in all age groups and the bodyweight of the user is not associated with failure of the method. In Western cultures continuance rates among users of the levonorgestrel-releasing IUS are comparable with those of other long-term methods of contraception. Premature removal of the device is most often associated with heavy menstrual bleeding and pain, as with other long

  4. Making sense of Arctic maritime traffic using the Polar Operational Limits Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stoddard, M. A.; Etienne, L.; Fournier, M.; Pelot, R.; Beveridge, L.

    2016-04-01

    Maritime traffic volume in the Arctic is growing for several reasons: climate change is resulting in less ice in extent, duration, and thickness; economic drivers are inducing growth in resource extraction traffic, community size (affecting resupply) and adventure tourism. This dynamic situation, coupled with harsh weather, variable operating conditions, remoteness, and lack of straightforward emergency response options, demand robust risk management processes. The requirements for risk management for polar ship operations are specified in the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code). The goal of the Polar Code is to provide for safe ship operations and protection of the polar environment by addressing the risk present in polar waters. Risk management is supported by evidence-based models, including threat identification (types and frequency of hazards), exposure levels, and receptor characterization. Most of the information used to perform risk management in polar waters is attained in-situ, but increasingly is being augmented with open-access remote sensing information. In this paper we focus on the use of open-access historical ice charts as an integral part of northern navigation, especially for route planning and evaluation.

  5. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, P<0.001) . Evaluation results of two risk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  6. An outline of a risk assessment-based system of meat safety assurance and its future prospects.

    PubMed

    Berends, B R; van Knapen, F

    1999-10-01

    Discussed are the outlines of a risk assessment-based system of meat safety assurance to replace the current meat inspection. An example of a system that uses the Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points (HACCP)-principles in the entire production chain from stable to table is also given. Continuous evaluation of risks is the main driving force of the new system. Only then the system has the means to remain flexible and provide for the data necessary to convince trade partners that the products they buy are safe. A monitoring system that keeps track of the important health hazards in the entire chain from stable to table is therefore necessary. This includes monitoring of cases of disease in the human population caused by the hazardous agents of concern. Coordination of the monitoring and control and processing of the information is done by an independent body. Furthermore, the system demands a production from stable to table that is based on the ideas of Integrated Quality Control (IQC), HACCP, and certification of production processes and quality control procedures. Clear legislation provides for criteria about acceptable or unacceptable health risks for the consumer and determines at what moments which risks should be controlled by the producers. Simultaneously, the legislation has to be flexible enough to be able to adapt quickly to any changes in risks, or in the way risks should be controlled. In the new system current meat inspection can easily be carried out by employees of the slaughter houses and is no longer a direct responsibility of the authorities. The authorities only demand certain safety levels and verify whether producers stick to these. Producers remain fully responsible for the safety and quality of their products, and fully liable in case of any damage to the consumers' health. However, it is to be expected that some EU Member-States miss the organizational and agricultural basis for a successful application of the new system. Consequences

  7. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  8. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  9. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  10. Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tedrow, Christine Atkins

    transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

  11. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: SYNTHETIC ORGANIC ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate. Update 9/19/2006: Proposed Rule June 14, 2006 - Risk Assessment complete September 2005 and only available in the Docket.

  12. Rapid Assessment Response (RAR) study: drug use, health and systemic risks--Emthonjeni Correctional Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.

    PubMed

    Dos Santos, Monika M L; Trautmann, Franz; Wolvaardt, Gustaaf; Palakatsela, Romeo

    2014-04-03

    Correctional centre populations are one of the populations most at risk of contracting HIV infection for many reasons, such as unprotected sex, violence, rape and tattooing with contaminated equipment. Specific data on drug users in correctional centres is not available for the majority of countries, including South Africa. The study aimed to identify the attitudes and knowledge of key informant (KI) offender and correctional centre staff regarding drug use, health and systemic-related problems so as to facilitate the long-term planning of activities in the field of drug-use prevention and systems strengthening in correctional centres, including suggestions for the development of appropriate intervention and rehabilitation programmes. A Rapid Assessment Response (RAR) methodology was adopted which included observation, mapping of service providers (SP), KI interviews (staff and offenders) and focus groups (FGs). The study was implemented in Emthonjeni Youth Correctional Centre, Pretoria, South Africa. Fifteen KI staff participants were interviewed and 45 KI offenders. Drug use is fairly prevalent in the centre, with tobacco most commonly smoked, followed by cannabis and heroin. The banning of tobacco has also led to black-market features such as transactional sex, violence, gangsterism and smuggling in order to obtain mainly prohibited tobacco products, as well as illicit substances. HIV, health and systemic-related risk reduction within the Correctional Service sector needs to focus on measures such as improvement of staff capacity and security measures, deregulation of tobacco products and the development and implementation of comprehensive health promotion programmes.

  13. Risk assessment of dietary supplements.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan R

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment of dietary supplements shares many of the requirements of that for other chemicals, although there are some important differences. Amongst these is the essential nature of some nutrients so that it may be necessary to balance the need to minimize toxicological risk with the need to avoid deficiency. There may also be limitations on experimental design, in that high doses may not be achievable for nutritional reasons and available human data on toxicological hazard is likely to be very limited. Prior to embarking on a risk assessment the problem needs to be formulated. This involves risk assessors, risk managers and relevant stakeholders. A key decision is whether a risk assessment is necessary and, if so, what is required of the assessment. This will shape the nature and output of the assessment. Risk assessment itself is a scientific process comprising four steps, hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification involves determining the range of toxicological effects that might be caused by the substance, whilst hazard characterization establishes dose-response relationships, toxicological and species relevance of the findings and establishes health based guidance values. Exposure assessment involves predicting or measuring the level, pattern and duration of intake of the substance by exposed individuals. This may require dietary consumption data. Finally, risk characterization is the process whereby all of the prior information is integrated to reach conclusions in a form appropriate to the question posed. The nature of the output can take several different forms, and may be qualitative or quantitative. There are some cross-cutting issues in risk assessment, primarily on uncertainty and variability. The sources of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment should be clearly identified and quantified to the extent possible. Variability requires that the risk assessment should

  14. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  15. Risk assessment of three fluoroquinolone antibiotics in the groundwater recharge system.

    PubMed

    Chen, Guoli; Liu, Xiang; Tartakevosky, Daniel; Li, Miao

    2016-11-01

    Three fluoroquinolone antibiotics agents (FQs) in groundwater and reclaimed water have been investigated in Changzhou and Beijing, China. The occurrence of ofloxacin (OFL), enrofloxacin (ENR) and norfloxacin (NOR) is in nanograms per liter and has 100% frequency. The concentration order of FQs in reclaimed water is NOR>OFL>ENR, whilst the order in groundwater is NOR>ENR>OFL. And then the single and mixture adsorption-desorption have been studied and showed that (i) silty clay loam has higher sorption capacity than loamy sand, (ii) competitive adsorption exists when the three selected FQs coexist, (iii) ENR has a significantly priority sorption to NOR, whilst OFL has a least sorption among the mixture, (iv) there is no significant difference between the desorption results of mixture and the indivdual compound in relatively low concentration, (v) the formed chemical bonds and the irreversible combination of adsorption point are the significant influential factors for explaining desorption hysteresis of the selected FQs. Based on the above study, transport model and risk quotient have been performed, and the calculated risk quotient reveals that: (i) the selected FQs risk order in reclaimed water is OFL>ENR>NOR, (ii) in groundwater, OFL and ENR pose a higher risk than NOR no matter whether considering the long time groundwater recharge. This study will help policy makers to decide which FQs need to be covered in the priority substance lists defined in legislative frameworks. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. 75 FR 2823 - Incorporating Employee Compensation Criteria Into the Risk Assessment System

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-19

    ... Street) on business days between 7 a.m. and 5 p.m. Instructions: All comments received will be posted... compensation practices contributed to the excessive build-up of risk that precipitated the crisis. A review of... and Lehman 2000-2008,'' Yale Journal on Regulation (forthcoming) ( http://www.law.harvard.edu/faculty...

  17. USEPA’s Land‐Based Materials Management Exposure and Risk Assessment Tool System

    EPA Science Inventory

    It is recognized that some kinds of 'waste' materials can in fact be reused as input materials for making safe products that benefit society. RIMM (Risk-Informed Materials Management) provides an integrated data gathering and analysis capability to enable scientifically rigorous ...

  18. Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

    PubMed Central

    Nagano, Satoshi; Yokouchi, Masahiro; Setoguchi, Takao; Sasaki, Hiromi; Shimada, Hirofumi; Kawamura, Ichiro; Ishidou, Yasuhiro; Kamizono, Junichi; Yamamoto, Takuya; Kawamura, Hideki; Komiya, Setsuro

    2014-01-01

    Surgical site infection (SSI) has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST) owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases) treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P = 0.0002) and intraoperative blood loss (P = 0.0005) was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI) index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials). The MOSI index (0–4 points) score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points). The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI. PMID:24672281

  19. USEPA’s Land‐Based Materials Management Exposure and Risk Assessment Tool System

    EPA Science Inventory

    It is recognized that some kinds of 'waste' materials can in fact be reused as input materials for making safe products that benefit society. RIMM (Risk-Informed Materials Management) provides an integrated data gathering and analysis capability to enable scientifically rigorous ...

  20. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  1. Field efficacy evaluation and post-treatment contamination risk assessment of an ultraviolet disinfection and safe storage system.

    PubMed

    Reygadas, Fermin; Gruber, Joshua S; Ray, Isha; Nelson, Kara L

    2015-11-15

    Inconsistent use of household water treatment and safe storage (HWTS) systems reduces their potential health benefits. Ultraviolet (UV) disinfection is more convenient than some existing HWTS systems, but it does not provide post-treatment residual disinfectant, which could leave drinking water vulnerable to recontamination. In this paper, using as-treated analyses, we report on the field efficacy of a UV disinfection system at improving household drinking water quality in rural Mexico. We further assess the risk of post-treatment contamination from the UV system, and develop a process-based model to better understand household risk factors for recontamination. This study was part of a larger cluster-randomized stepped wedge trial, and the results complement previously published population-level results of the intervention on diarrheal prevalence and water quality. Based on the presence of Escherichia coli (proportion of households with ≥ 1 E. coli/100 mL), we estimated a risk difference of -28.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): -33.9%, -22.1%) when comparing intervention to control households; -38.6% (CI: -48.9%, -28.2%) when comparing post- and pre-intervention results; and -37.1% (CI: -45.2%, -28.9%) when comparing UV disinfected water to alternatives within the household. We found substantial increases in post-treatment E. coli contamination when comparing samples from the UV system effluent (5.0%) to samples taken from the storage container (21.1%) and drinking glasses (26.0%). We found that improved household infrastructure, additional extractions from the storage container, additional time from when the storage container was filled, and increased experience of the UV system operator were associated with reductions in post-treatment contamination. Our results suggest that the UV system is efficacious at improving household water quality when used as intended. Promoting safe storage habits is essential for an effective UV system dissemination. The drinking

  2. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  3. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  4. An Assessment of Technical and Production Risks of Candidate Low-Cost Attitude/Heading Reference Systems(AHRS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yuchnovicz, Daniel; Burgess, Malcolm; Hammers, William

    1999-01-01

    This report provides an assessment of technical and production risks of candidate low-cost attitude/heading reference systems (AHRS) for use in the Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) airplanes. A low-cost AHRS is a key component of modem "glass cockpit" flight displays for General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The technical capabilities of several candidate low-cost AHRS were examined and described along with the technical issues involved with using all solid-state components for attitude measurement. An economic model was developed which describes the expected profit, rate of return, and volume requirements for the manufacture of low-cost AHRS for GA aircraft in the 2000 to 2020 time frame. The model is the result of interviews with GA airframe manufacturers, avionics manufacturers and historical analysis of avionics of similar complexity. The model shows that a manufacturer will break even after three years of AHRS production, realizing an 18 percent rate of return (23 percent profit) on an investment of $3.5M over the 20 year period. A start-up production estimate showed costs of $6-12M for a new company to build and certify an AHRS from scratch, considered to be a high-risk proposition, versus $0.25-0.75M for an experienced avionics manufacturer to manufacture a design under license, a low-risk proposition.

  5. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-10-16

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.

  6. Homeland Security Advisory System: An Assessment of Its Ability to Formulate a Risk Message

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    helps to intensify and sustain the hurricane (Lutgens & Tarbuck , 1982, p. 262). Hurricanes relate to the five factors of risk prediction as follows...kilometers per hour (Lutgens & Tarbuck , 1982, p. 262). Area of impact: Definable. We can measure the speed and direction of a hurricane and we can...scientifically accepted Saffir/Simpson scale (Lutgens & Tarbuck , 1982, p. 265). Probability: High. Due to their slow movement and ability to be monitored

  7. An Assessment of Non-Communicable Diseases, Diabetes, and Related Risk Factors in the Territory of Guam: A Systems Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Gillan, James W; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).1 This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the US Territory of Guam and describes the burdens due to NCD, with an emphasis on diabetes; and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection, and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been an increase of 2.6% in the total population between 2000 and 2010. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors are associated with overweight and obesity. The leading causes of death include heart disease, cancer, and cerebrovascular accidents. Population surveys show that 9.1% of the adult population in 2009 reported being diagnosed with diabetes. Other data reports show that of the adults, 35.4% were overweight and 25.9% were obese; and among youth, 30% were overweight or obese. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, data, and support services to address NCDs and diabetes. There is no Territory-wide health plan to address the prevention and control of NCDs including diabetes. There are no common standards of care or policy and procedures that are used by all the various medical and health care providers. Based on these findings, priority issues and needs were identified for the administrative and clinical systems. PMID:23900408

  8. An assessment of non-communicable diseases, diabetes, and related risk factors in the Republic of Palau: a systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Ichiho, Henry M; Demei, Yorah; Kuartei, Stevenson; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-05-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).1 This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the Republic of Palau and describes the burden due to selected NCD (diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, chronic kidney disease); and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection, and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been a 7.1% increase in the population between 2000 and 2010. Significant shifts in the age groups show declines among children and young adults under 34 years of age and increases among adult residents over 45 years of age. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors are associated with overweight and obesity and subsequent NCD that play a significant role in the morbidity and mortality of the population. The leading causes of death include heart disease and cancer. A 2003 community household survey was conducted and 22.4% of them reported a history of diabetes in the household. A survey among Ministry of Health employees showed that 44% of the men and 47% of the women were overweight and 46% of the men and 42% of the women were obese. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, and support services to address these NCD. Priority issues and needs for the administrative and clinical systems were identified.

  9. Comprehensive transportation risk assessment system based on unit-consequence factors

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; LePoire, D.J.; Chen, S.Y.

    1994-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement requires a comprehensive transportation risk analysis of radioactive waste shipments for large shipping campaigns. Thousands of unique shipments involving truck and rail transport must be analyzed; a comprehensive risk analysis is impossible with currently available methods. Argonne National Laboratory developed a modular transportation model that can handle the demands imposed by such an analysis. The modular design of the model facilitates the simple addition/updating of transportation routes and waste inventories, as required, and reduces the overhead associated with file maintenance and quality assurance. The model incorporates unit-consequences factors generated with the RADTRAN 4 transportation risk analysis code that are combined with an easy-to-use, menu-driven interface on IBM-compatible computers running under DOS. User selection of multiple origin/destination site pairs for the shipment of multiple radioactive waste inventories is permitted from pop-up lists. Over 800 predefined routes are available among more than 30 DOE sites and waste inventories that include high-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, transuranic waste, low-level waste, low-level mixed waste, and greater-than-Class C waste.

  10. A quasi-2D flood modeling approach to simulate substance transport in polder systems for environment flood risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich; Huang, Shaochun; Baborowski, Martina

    2008-07-01

    In flood modeling, many one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic and water quality models are too restricted in capturing the spatial differentiation of processes within a polder or system of polders and two-dimensional (2D) models are too demanding in data requirements and computational resources, especially if Monte-Carlo techniques are to be used for model uncertainty analyses. The first goal of this paper is to show the successful development of a quasi-2D modeling approach which still calculates the dynamic wave in 1D but the discretisation of the computational units is in 2D, allowing a better spatial representation of the flow and substance transport processes in the polders without a large additional expenditure on data pre-processing and simulation processing. The models DYNHYD (1D hydrodynamics) and TOXI (sediment and micro-pollutant transport) were used as a basis for the hydrodynamic and water quality simulations. An extreme flood event on the Elbe River, Germany, with a proposed polder system variant was used as a test case. The results show a plausible differentiation of suspended sediment and zinc concentrations within the polders both spatially and temporally. This fulfills the second goal of this research. The third goal of this work is to provide an example methodology of carrying out an environmental risk assessment in inundated areas by flood waters, as required by the European Union floods directive. The deposition of zinc in polders was used for this example, due to its high contamination potential in the Elbe River. The extended quasi-2D modeling system incorporates a Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis to assess the environmental impact of heavy metal deposition in the polders during extreme flooding. The environmental risk computed gives a 48% chance of exceeding the inspection value of 500 mg zinc/kg sediment for a flood such as the August 2002 event.

  11. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  12. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  13. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  14. Office-based computerized risk-assessment and health-education systems.

    PubMed

    Paperny, David M N

    2007-08-01

    Current computer technology and informational media formats can have dramatic effects on adolescent health. In this article, various advances and techniques used in adolescent health screening and assessment, as well as application of both common and advanced video and multimedia for health education and promotion, are reviewed. Future implications are discussed.

  15. Accumulation, allocation, and risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil-Brassica chinensis system.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Juan; Fan, Shukai; Du, Xiaoming; Yang, Juncheng; Wang, Wenyan; Hou, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Farmland soil and leafy vegetables accumulate more polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in suburban sites. In this study, 13 sampling areas were selected from vegetable fields in the outskirts of Xi'an, the largest city in northwestern China. The similarity of PAH composition in soil and vegetation was investigated through principal components analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA), rather than discrimination of PAH congeners from various sources. The toxic equivalent quantity of PAHs in soil ranged from 7 to 202 μg/kg d.w., with an average of 41 μg/kg d.w., which exceeded the agricultural/horticultural soil acceptance criteria for New Zealand. However, the cancer risk level posed by combined direct ingestion, dermal contact, inhalation of soil particles, and inhalation of surface soil vapor met the rigorous international criteria (1 × 10(-6)). The concentration of total PAHs was (1052 ± 73) μg/kg d.w. in vegetation (mean ± standard error). The cancer risks posed by ingestion of vegetation ranged from 2×10-5 to 2 × 10(-4) with an average of 1.66 × 10(-4), which was higher than international excess lifetime risk limits for carcinogens (1 × 10(-4)). The geochemical indices indicated that the PAHs in soil and vegetables were mainly from vehicle and crude oil combustion. Both the total PAHs in vegetation and bioconcentration factor for total PAHs (the ratio of total PAHs in vegetation to total PAHs in soil) increased with increasing pH as well as decreasing sand in soil. The total variation in distribution of PAHs in vegetation explained by those in soil reached 98% in RDA, which was statistically significant based on Monte Carlo permutation. Common pollution source and notable effects of soil contamination on vegetation would result in highly similar distribution of PAHs in soil and vegetation.

  16. Accumulation, Allocation, and Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Soil-Brassica chinensis System

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Juan; Fan, Shukai; Du, Xiaoming; Yang, Juncheng; Wang, Wenyan; Hou, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Farmland soil and leafy vegetables accumulate more polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in suburban sites. In this study, 13 sampling areas were selected from vegetable fields in the outskirts of Xi’an, the largest city in northwestern China. The similarity of PAH composition in soil and vegetation was investigated through principal components analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA), rather than discrimination of PAH congeners from various sources. The toxic equivalent quantity of PAHs in soil ranged from 7 to 202 μg/kg d.w., with an average of 41 μg/kg d.w., which exceeded the agricultural/horticultural soil acceptance criteria for New Zealand. However, the cancer risk level posed by combined direct ingestion, dermal contact, inhalation of soil particles, and inhalation of surface soil vapor met the rigorous international criteria (1×10−6). The concentration of total PAHs was (1052±73) μg/kg d.w. in vegetation (mean±standard error). The cancer risks posed by ingestion of vegetation ranged from 2×10−5 to 2×10−4 with an average of 1.66×10−4, which was higher than international excess lifetime risk limits for carcinogens (1×10−4). The geochemical indices indicated that the PAHs in soil and vegetables were mainly from vehicle and crude oil combustion. Both the total PAHs in vegetation and bioconcentration factor for total PAHs (the ratio of total PAHs in vegetation to total PAHs in soil) increased with increasing pH as well as decreasing sand in soil. The total variation in distribution of PAHs in vegetation explained by those in soil reached 98% in RDA, which was statistically significant based on Monte Carlo permutation. Common pollution source and notable effects of soil contamination on vegetation would result in highly similar distribution of PAHs in soil and vegetation. PMID:25679782

  17. RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM - INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The current problem in the United States is that the water infrastructure is aging and spending has not been adequate to repair, replace, or rehabilitate drinking water distribution systems and wastewater collection systems. The American Society of Civil Engineers Report Card in...

  18. RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM - INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The current problem in the United States is that the water infrastructure is aging and spending has not been adequate to repair, replace, or rehabilitate drinking water distribution systems and wastewater collection systems. The American Society of Civil Engineers Report Card in...

  19. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  20. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: HALOGENATED SOLVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Halogenated Solvent Degreasing Facilities. These assessments utilize existing models and d...

  1. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  2. Postpartum Mental Health and Breastfeeding Practices: An Analysis Using the 2010-2011 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System.

    PubMed

    Wouk, Kathryn; Stuebe, Alison M; Meltzer-Brody, Samantha

    2017-03-01

    Objective Evidence suggests that women with postpartum depression (PPD) are at risk for early breastfeeding cessation, but previous studies have been limited by small samples. The objective of this analysis is to estimate the association between PPD symptoms and breastfeeding using a national, stratified, random sample of U.S. mothers. Methods Data from the 2010-2011 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System were analyzed for New York City and the 29 states for which data were available. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore the association between a pre-pregnancy mental health visit and subsequent breastfeeding initiation as well as PPD and 3-month any and exclusive breastfeeding. To identify state-level variation, we created maps of prevalence and adjusted odds of breastfeeding by PPD and pre-pregnancy mental health status. Results Women reporting a pre-pregnancy mental health visit had 0.61 (95 % CI 0.56, 0.67) times the odds of initiating breastfeeding compared with women who reported no pre-pregnancy visit. At 3 months postpartum, women with PPD symptoms since birth had 0.79 (95 % CI 0.70, 0.88) times the odds of any breastfeeding and reduced odds of exclusive breastfeeding modified by race/ethnicity. We found variation in state-level PPD symptoms and pre-pregnancy mental health prevalence and adjusted odds of breastfeeding. Conclusions for Practice Our results highlight the importance of providing targeted breastfeeding support to women with PPD symptoms, because they are at risk of early breastfeeding cessation. Given the cross-sectional nature of these data, women with early breastfeeding cessation may also be at risk for PPD, requiring screening and treatment.

  3. Assessment of three systems to empower the patient and decrease the risk of adverse drug events.

    PubMed

    Lawton, Kitta; Skjoet, Peter

    2011-01-01

    One way to reduce adverse drug events (ADEs) is to empower the patient to participate in the control of medication. This empowerment can be supported in different ways by making knowledge and information available to the patient. This study examines the usefulness and safety of two different systems on the background of a paper-based medication list presenting prescribed medicine presently used in hospitals in Copenhagen. Each of the systems examined aims to reduce ADEs but presents information in different levels of detail, and anticipates different level of prior knowledge from the patient: a Web-based prototype presenting medication, lab-results and alerts, and a cell phone-based prototype presenting alerts. Six patients were introduced to each of the systems by performing small tasks and subsequently interviewed. The patients found the paper-based medication list useful and comprehensive for control of own prescribed medication. The Web-based prototype also proved to be useful, but drug and lab values were hard to correlate, and the alerts were hard to understand. The cell phone-based prototype proved less useful as the patients were challenged to vision the applicability of the system. Furthermore, it is a safety issue that the information the alert is based upon, stems from the patient alone. We conclude that, in order for the Web-based system as well as the cell phone system to empower patient and increase patient safety, further development of the systems is necessary.

  4. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  5. Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

    PubMed

    Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

    2017-04-01

    To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  7. The importance of operations, risk, and cost assessment to space transfer systems design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ball, J. M.; Komerska, R. J.; Rowell, L. F.

    1992-01-01

    This paper examines several methodologies which contribute to comprehensive subsystem cost estimation. The example of a space-based lunar space transfer vehicle (STV) design is used to illustrate how including both primary and secondary factors into cost affects the decision of whether to use aerobraking or propulsion for earth orbit capture upon lunar return. The expected dominant cost factor in this decision is earth-to-orbit launch cost driven by STV mass. However, to quantify other significant cost factors, this cost comparison included a risk analysis to identify development and testing costs, a Taguchi design of experiments to determine a minimum mass aerobrake design, and a detailed operations analysis. As a result, the predicted cost advantage of aerobraking, while still positive, was subsequently reduced by about 30 percent compared to the simpler mass-based cost estimates.

  8. Systemic risk measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerra, Solange Maria; Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés; de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach and banking sector multivariate density. We also apply network measures to analyze bank common risk exposure. The proposed measures aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. These indicators capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systemically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

  9. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  10. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  11. Vulnerability And Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Durling, Jr., R L; Price, D E; Spero, K K

    2005-01-03

    For over ten years, the Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been a planning tool used by U.S. combatant commands for mission support planning against foreign programs engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). CAPS is endorsed by the Secretary of Defense as the preferred counterproliferation tool to be used by the nation's armed services. A sister system, the Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging CAPS expertise designed to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities is presented.

  12. Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Durling, R L; Price, D E; Spero, K K

    2005-06-06

    For over ten years, the Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been a planning tool used by U.S. combatant commands for mission support planning against foreign programs engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). CAPS is endorsed by the Secretary of Defense as the preferred counterproliferation tool to be used by the nation's armed services. A sister system, the Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging CAPS expertise designed to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities will be presented.

  13. Groundwater abstraction pollution risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lytton, L; Howe, S; Sage, R; Greenaway, P

    2003-01-01

    A generic groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology has been developed to enable the evaluation and ranking of the potential risk of pollution to groundwater abstractions. The ranking can then be used to prioritise risk management or mitigation procedures in a robust and quantifiable framework and thus inform business investment decisions. The risk assessment consider the three components of the pollution transport model: source-pathway-receptor. For groundwater abstractions these correspond to land use (with associated pollutants and shallow subsurface characteristics), aquifer and the abstraction borehole. An hierarchical approach was chosen to allow the risk assessment to be successfully carried out with different quality data for different parts of the model. The 400-day groundwater protection zone defines the catchment boundary that form the spatial limit of the land use audit for each receptor. A risk score is obtained for each land use (potential pollution source) within the catchment. These scores are derived by considering the characteristics (such as load, persistence and toxicity) of all pollutants pertaining to each land use, their on-site management and the potential for the unsaturated subsurface to attenuate their effects in the event of a release. Risk scores are also applied to the aquifer characteristics (as pollutant pathway) and to the abstraction borehole (as pollutant receptor). Each risk score is accompanied by an uncertainty score which provides a guide to the confidence in the data used to compile the risk assessment. The application of the methodology has highlighted a number of problems in this type of work and results of initial case studies are being used to trial alternative scoring methods and a more simplified approach to accelerate the process of pollution risk assessment.

  14. Risk assessment of sewer condition using artificial intelligence tools: application to the SANEST sewer system.

    PubMed

    Sousa, V; Matos, J P; Almeida, N; Saldanha Matos, J

    2014-01-01

    Operation, maintenance and rehabilitation comprise the main concerns of wastewater infrastructure asset management. Given the nature of the service provided by a wastewater system and the characteristics of the supporting infrastructure, technical issues are relevant to support asset management decisions. In particular, in densely urbanized areas served by large, complex and aging sewer networks, the sustainability of the infrastructures largely depends on the implementation of an efficient asset management system. The efficiency of such a system may be enhanced with technical decision support tools. This paper describes the role of artificial intelligence tools such as artificial neural networks and support vector machines for assisting the planning of operation and maintenance activities of wastewater infrastructures. A case study of the application of this type of tool to the wastewater infrastructures of Sistema de Saneamento da Costa do Estoril is presented.

  15. Development of web-based services for a novel ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Y.; Manful, D. Y.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Li, Z.; Bao, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wesner, S.; Schubert, L.; Yang, L.; Hu, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust

  16. Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

    2010-05-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability

  17. Neurotoxicity in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, B.

    1988-01-01

    Neurotoxicity is a property of many metals, even those deemed biologically essential. Manganese, one of the essential elements, can induce a syndrome displaying aspects of both Parkinsonism and dystonia, but accompanied, as well, by psychological abnormalities. At low exposure levels, however, neurotoxicity may be detectable with psychological tests. Mercury vapor exposure also induces neurological signs, psychological aberrations, and subtle evidence of dysfunction on psychological tests. Methylmercury and lead are particularly toxic to the developing brain. The most recent research indicates that psychological testing may uncover deficits even in children showing no evidence of impairment. Because of their special features, neurotoxic endpoints may have to be evaluated for risks by a process that diverges significantly from the standard program based on carcinogenicity.

  18. Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Price, D E; Durling, R L

    2005-10-10

    The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's expertise in weapons systems and in sparse information analysis to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities will be presented.

  19. Continuum of risk analysis methods to assess tillage system sustainability at the experimental plot level

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) methodology for ranking conventional and conservation tillage systems using 14 years (1990-2003) of economic budget data collected from 36 plots at the Iowa...

  20. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  1. Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

    Treesearch

    Justin Fitch

    2008-01-01

    In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

  2. Refining fault trees for accurate risk assessment of unmanned aerial systems (UAS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lambson, Kara Michelle

    The purpose of this research is to validate the use of a PRESAGE dosimeter as a method to quantitatively measure dose distributions of injectable brachytherapy based on elastin-like polypeptide (ELP) nanoparticles. ELP has several useful properties for treatment purposes, including the ability to be tagged with a radioactive element, an inverse temperature phase transition useful for self-assembly into hydrophobic aggregation upon injection, and a highly tunable threshold temperature based on the amino acid composition and concentration. PRESAGE is a solid, transparent polyurethane-based dosimeter whose dose is proportional to a change in optical density, making it useful for visualizing the dose from a radionuclide-tagged-ELP injection. Initial experiments with the gel phantoms demonstrate viability for assessing I-125 dose deposition, as the image analysis showed the similar relative dose distributions compared with a MATLAB simulation.

  3. Distribution, source identification, and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in wetland soils of a river-reservoir system.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xiaoliang; Xiong, Ziqian; Liu, Hui; Liu, Guihua; Liu, Wenzhi

    2017-01-01

    The majority of rivers in the world have been dammed, and over 45,000 large reservoirs have been constructed for multiple purposes. Riparian and reservoir shorelines are the two most important wetland types in a dammed river. To date, few studies have concerned the heavy metal pollution in wetland soils of these river-reservoir systems. In this study, we measured the concentrations of ten heavy metals (Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn) in surface soils collected from riparian and reservoir shorelines along the Han River in different seasons. Our results found that the Co, Cu, and Ni concentrations in riparian wetlands were significantly lower than those in reservoir shorelines. In riparian wetlands, only soil Sr concentration significantly increased after summer and autumn submergence. Multivariate statistical analyses demonstrated that Ba and Cd might originate from industrial and mining sources, whereas Sr and Mn predominantly originated from natural rock weathering. The ecological risk assessment analysis indicated that both riparian and reservoir shorelines along the Han River in China exhibited a moderate ecological risk in soil heavy metals. The upper Han River basin is the water resource area of China's Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Therefore, to control the contamination of heavy metals in wetland soils, more efforts should be focused on reducing the discharge of mining and industrial pollutants into the riparian and reservoir shorelines.

  4. Requirements based system risk modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steven; Feather, Martin

    2004-01-01

    The problem that we address in this paper is assessing the expected degree of success of the system or mission based on the degree to which each requirement is satisfied and the relative weight of the requirements. We assume a complete list of the requirements, the relevant risk elements and their probability of occurrence and the quantified effect of the risk elements on the requirements. In order to assess the degree to which each requirement is satisfied, we need to determine the effect of the various risk elements on the requirement.

  5. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  6. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  7. Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS): III. Accurate Preoperative Prediction of 8 Adverse Outcomes Using 8 Predictor Variables.

    PubMed

    Meguid, Robert A; Bronsert, Michael R; Juarez-Colunga, Elizabeth; Hammermeister, Karl E; Henderson, William G

    2016-07-01

    To develop accurate preoperative risk prediction models for multiple adverse postoperative outcomes applicable to a broad surgical population using a parsimonious common set of risk variables and outcomes. Currently, preoperative assessment of surgical risk is largely based on subjective clinician experience. We propose a paradigm shift from the current postoperative risk adjustment for cross-hospital comparison to patient-centered quantitative risk assessment during the preoperative evaluation. We identify the most common and important predictor variables of postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, and 6 complication clusters from previously published prediction analyses that used forward selection stepwise logistic regression. We then refit the prediction models using only the 8 most common and important predictor variables, and compare the discrimination and calibration of these models to the original full-variable models using the c-index, Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis, and Brier scores. Accurate risk models for 30-day outcomes of mortality, overall morbidity, and 6 clusters of complications were developed using a set of 8 preoperative risk variables. C-indexes of the 8 variable models are between 97.9% and 99.2% of those of the full models containing up to 28 variables, indicating excellent discrimination using fewer predictor variables. Hosmer-Lemeshow analyses showed observed to expected event rates to be nearly identical between parsimonious models and full models, both showing good calibration. Accurate preoperative risk assessment of postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, and 6 complication clusters in a broad surgical population can be achieved with as few as 8 preoperative predictor variables, improving feasibility of routine preoperative risk assessment for surgical patients.

  8. Intimate Partner Violence, Small for Gestational Age Birth and Cigarette Smoking in the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System.

    PubMed

    Alhusen, Jeanne L; Geller, Ruth; Jellig, Jerry; Budhathoki, Chakra; Decker, Michele

    2017-08-25

    Exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) in the perinatal period is associated with obstetric complications, poor maternal mental health, neonatal complications, and increased risk of infant mortality and morbidity. Less is known about how IPV may influence small for gestational age (SGA) birth. Data were obtained for 231,081 United States mothers who delivered neonates from 2004 to 2011 and completed the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System survey 2-9 months after delivery. Weighted descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression models were used. IPV in the year before or during pregnancy was related to SGA bivariately (odds ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28, 1.51), and after adjustment for demographic and obstetric factors, this association attenuated after further adjustment for perinatal smoking patterns, (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.06, 95% CI 0.97, 1.15). Compared with nonabused women, women experiencing perinatal IPV were more than twice as likely to smoke before pregnancy (aOR 2.34, 95% CI 2.19, 2.49), and nearly 1.5 times as likely to report sustained smoking into the last 3 months of pregnancy (aOR 1.45, 95% CI 1.32, 1.59). In turn, among prepregnancy smokers, sustained smoking was associated with delivery of a SGA neonate (aOR 1.87, 95% CI 1.72, 2.03), fully attenuating the association of perinatal IPV with SGA. Women who experienced perinatal IPV were significantly more likely to smoke prepregnancy and sustain smoking into the last 3 months of pregnancy. Through behavioral and physiological pathways, smoking cessation may be uniquely challenging for women experiencing IPV, yet critical to address clinically to mitigate risk for SGA.

  9. INTELLIGENT COMPUTING SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE RED RIVER FORMATION

    SciTech Connect

    Mark A. Sippel; William C. Carrigan; Kenneth D. Luff; Lyn Canter

    2003-11-12

    Integrated software has been written that comprises the tool kit for the Intelligent Computing System (ICS). The software tools in ICS have been developed for characterization of reservoir properties and evaluation of hydrocarbon potential using a combination of inter-disciplinary data sources such as geophysical, geologic and engineering variables. The ICS tools provide a means for logical and consistent reservoir characterization and oil reserve estimates. The tools can be broadly characterized as (1) clustering tools, (2) neural solvers, (3) multiple-linear regression, (4) entrapment-potential calculator and (5) file utility tools. ICS tools are extremely flexible in their approach and use, and applicable to most geologic settings. The tools are primarily designed to correlate relationships between seismic information and engineering and geologic data obtained from wells, and to convert or translate seismic information into engineering and geologic terms or units. It is also possible to apply ICS in a simple framework that may include reservoir characterization using only engineering, seismic, or geologic data in the analysis. ICS tools were developed and tested using geophysical, geologic and engineering data obtained from an exploitation and development project involving the Red River Formation in Bowman County, North Dakota and Harding County, South Dakota. Data obtained from 3D seismic surveys, and 2D seismic lines encompassing nine prospective field areas were used in the analysis. The geologic setting of the Red River Formation in Bowman and Harding counties is that of a shallow-shelf, carbonate system. Present-day depth of the Red River formation is approximately 8000 to 10,000 ft below ground surface. This report summarizes production results from well demonstration activity, results of reservoir characterization of the Red River Formation at demonstration sites, descriptions of ICS tools and strategies for their application.

  10. An Assessment of Non-Communicable Diseases, Diabetes, and Related Risk Factors in the Republic of Palau: A Systems Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Demei, Yorah; Kuartei, Stevenson; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).1 This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the Republic of Palau and describes the burden due to selected NCD (diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, chronic kidney disease); and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection, and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been a 7.1% increase in the population between 2000 and 2010. Significant shifts in the age groups show declines among children and young adults under 34 years of age and increases among adult residents over 45 years of age. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors are associated with overweight and obesity and subsequent NCD that play a significant role in the morbidity and mortality of the population. The leading causes of death include heart disease and cancer. A 2003 community household survey was conducted and 22.4% of them reported a history of diabetes in the household. A survey among Ministry of Health employees showed that 44% of the men and 47% of the women were overweight and 46% of the men and 42% of the women were obese. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, and support services to address these NCD. Priority issues and needs for the administrative and clinical systems were identified. PMID:23901368

  11. Validation of Self-reported Maternal and Infant Health Indicators in the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System

    PubMed Central

    Bombard, Jennifer; Mulready-Ward, Candace; Gauthier, John; Sackoff, Judith; Brozicevic, Peggy; Gambatese, Melissa; Nyland-Funke, Michael; England, Lucinda; Harrison, Leslie; Taylor, Allan

    2015-01-01

    To assess the validity of self-reported maternal and infant health indicators reported by mothers an average of 4 months after delivery. Three validity measures—sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV)—were calculated for pregnancy history, pregnancy complications, health care utilization, and infant health indicators self-reported on the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) questionnaire by a representative sample of mothers delivering live births in New York City (NYC) (n = 603) and Vermont (n = 664) in 2009. Data abstracted from hospital records served as gold standards. All data were weighted to be representative of women delivering live births in NYC or Vermont during the study period. Most PRAMS indicators had >90 % specificity. Indicators with >90 % sensitivity and PPV for both sites included prior live birth, any diabetes, and Medicaid insurance at delivery, and for Vermont only, infant admission to the NICU and breastfeeding in the hospital. Indicators with poor sensitivity and PPV (<70 %) for both sites (i.e., NYC and Vermont) included placenta previa and/or placental abruption, urinary tract infection or kidney infection, and for NYC only, preterm labor, prior low-birth-weight birth, and prior preterm birth. For Vermont only, receipt of an HIV test during pregnancy had poor sensitivity and PPV. Mothers accurately reported information on prior live births and Medicaid insurance at delivery; however, mothers’ recall of certain pregnancy complications and pregnancy history was poor. These findings could be used to prioritize data collection of indicators with high validity. PMID:24770954

  12. Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

    2017-04-01

    Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

  13. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  14. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  15. INTELLIGENT COMPUTING SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE RED RIVER FORMATION

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth D. Luff

    2002-09-30

    Integrated software has been written that comprises the tool kit for the Intelligent Computing System (ICS). Luff Exploration Company is applying these tools for analysis of carbonate reservoirs in the southern Williston Basin. The integrated software programs are designed to be used by small team consisting of an engineer, geologist and geophysicist. The software tools are flexible and robust, allowing application in many environments for hydrocarbon reservoirs. Keystone elements of the software tools include clustering and neural-network techniques. The tools are used to transform seismic attribute data to reservoir characteristics such as storage (phi-h), probable oil-water contacts, structural depths and structural growth history. When these reservoir characteristics are combined with neural network or fuzzy logic solvers, they can provide a more complete description of the reservoir. This leads to better estimates of hydrocarbons in place, areal limits and potential for infill or step-out drilling. These tools were developed and tested using seismic, geologic and well data from the Red River Play in Bowman County, North Dakota and Harding County, South Dakota. The geologic setting for the Red River Formation is shallow-shelf carbonate at a depth from 8000 to 10,000 ft.

  16. INTELLIGENT COMPUTING SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE RED RIVER FORMATION

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth D. Luff

    2002-06-30

    Integrated software has been written that comprises the tool kit for the Intelligent Computing System (ICS). Luff Exploration Company is applying these tools for analysis of carbonate reservoirs in the southern Williston Basin. The integrated software programs are designed to be used by small team consisting of an engineer, geologist and geophysicist. The software tools are flexible and robust, allowing application in many environments for hydrocarbon reservoirs. Keystone elements of the software tools include clustering and neural-network techniques. The tools are used to transform seismic attribute data to reservoir characteristics such as storage (phi-h), probable oil-water contacts, structural depths and structural growth history. When these reservoir characteristics are combined with neural network or fuzzy logic solvers, they can provide a more complete description of the reservoir. This leads to better estimates of hydrocarbons in place, areal limits and potential for infill or step-out drilling. These tools were developed and tested using seismic, geologic and well data from the Red River Play in Bowman County, North Dakota and Harding County, South Dakota. The geologic setting for the Red River Formation is shallow-shelf carbonate at a depth from 8000 to 10,000 ft.

  17. Bilastine: an environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lucero, María Luisa; Peither, Armin; Ledo, Francisco

    2015-10-01

    Bilastine is a new oral selective, non-sedating histamine H1 antagonist for the symptomatic treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. The European Medicines Agency requires an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for all novel medicines for human use. To calculate the bilastine predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw; phase I ERA), and to determine the effects of bilastine on aquatic systems (phase II [tier A]). Bilastine PECsw was calculated using the maximum daily dosage (20 mg), assuming that all administered bilastine was released into the aquatic environment. A persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity assessment was conducted using the log Kow from the molecular structure. In phase II (tier A), a ready biodegradability test was performed, and bilastine's potential toxicity to various aquatic and sediment-dwelling micro-organisms was evaluated. Bilastine PECSW was calculated as 0.1 μg L(-1), and the compound was not readily biodegradable. Bilastine had no significant effects on Chironomus riparius midges, or on the respiration rate of activated sludge. For green algae, the bilastine no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was 22 mg L(-1); bilastine had no effect on zebra fish development, or on the reproduction rate of daphnids. Bilastine NOEC values against zebra fish, algae, daphnids, and aerobic organisms in activated sludge were at least 130 000-fold greater than the calculated PECSW value. No environmental concerns exist from bilastine use in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis or urticaria.

  18. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  19. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  20. Assessment of indirect human exposure to environmental sources of nickel: oral exposure and risk characterization for systemic effects.

    PubMed

    De Brouwere, Katleen; Buekers, Jurgen; Cornelis, Christa; Schlekat, Christian E; Oller, Adriana R

    2012-03-01

    This paper describes the indirect human exposure to Ni via the oral route for the regional scale in the EU, together with a method to assess additional local exposure from industrial emissions. The approach fills a gap in the generic REACH guidance which is inadequate for assessing indirect environmental exposure of metals. Estimates of regional scale Ni dietary intake were derived from Ni dietary studies performed in the EU. Typical and Reasonable Worst Case dietary Ni intakes for the general population in the EU were below the oral Derived No Effect Level (DNEL) of Ni sulfate for systemic effects. Estimates for the Ni dietary intake at the local scale take into account the influence of aerial Ni deposition and transfer from soil to crops grown near industrial plants emitting Ni. The additional dietary exposure via this local contribution was small. Despite the use of conservative parameters for these processes, this method may underestimate dietary exposure around older industrial sites because REACH guidance does not account for historical soil contamination. Nevertheless, the method developed here can also be used as a screening tool for community-based risk assessment, as it accounts for historical soil pollution. Nickel exposure via drinking water was derived from databases on Ni tap water quality. A small proportion of the EU population (<5%) is likely to be exposed to tap water exceeding the EU standard (20 μg Ni/l). Taking into account the relative gastrointestinal absorption of Ni from water (30%) versus from solid matrices (5%), water intake constitutes, after dietary intake, the second most important pathway for oral Ni intake. Incidental ingestion of Ni from soil/dust at the regional scale, and also at the local scale, was low in comparison with dietary intake.

  1. Using risk assessment as part of a systems approach to the control and prevention of HPAIV H5N1.

    PubMed

    Costard, Solenne; Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo

    2014-01-01

    Since its emergence in China in 1996, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Countries had to promptly implement control and prevention measures. Numerous research and capacity building initiatives were conducted in the affected regions to improve the capacity of national animal health services to support the development of risk-based mitigation strategies. This paper reviews and discusses risk assessments initiated in several South-East Asian and African countries under one of these projects. Despite important data gaps, the risk assessment results improved the ability of policy makers to design appropriate risk management policies. Disease risk was strongly influenced by various human behavioral factors. The ongoing circulation of HPAIV H5N1 in several Asian countries and in Egypt, despite major disease control efforts, supports the need for an interdisciplinary approach to development of tailored risk management policies, in accordance with the EcoHealth paradigm and the broad concept of risk governance. In particular, active stakeholders engagement and integration of economic and social studies into the policy making process are needed to optimize compliance and sustainable behavioral changes, thereby increasing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.

  2. [Assessment of dynamic violent behavior risk factors].

    PubMed

    Folino, Jorge Oscar; Cáceres, María Soledad; Campos, María Laura; Silveri, Marina; Ucín, Silvana; Ascazibar, Mariel

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic violent behavior risk factors have special significance since they constitute the main target for preventive intervention. Different dynamic factors as well as violent recidivism were assessed with, among other instruments, the environmental risk (Risk Management) section of the Argentinean version of the HCR-20 in 25 parolees from the Province of Buenos Aires Penitentiary System. Among other findings, the prevalence of the risk factors linked to substance abuse and socioeconomic deprivation, and the heterogeneous perception of the official institutions are very significant. Exposure to destabilizers was the factor most associated with violent recidivism.

  3. A systematic review of publications assessing reliability and validity of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), 2004–2011

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In recent years response rates on telephone surveys have been declining. Rates for the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (BRFSS) have also declined, prompting the use of new methods of weighting and the inclusion of cell phone sampling frames. A number of scholars and researchers have conducted studies of the reliability and validity of the BRFSS estimates in the context of these changes. As the BRFSS makes changes in its methods of sampling and weighting, a review of reliability and validity studies of the BRFSS is needed. Methods In order to assess the reliability and validity of prevalence estimates taken from the BRFSS, scholarship published from 2004–2011 dealing with tests of reliability and validity of BRFSS measures was compiled and presented by topics of health risk behavior. Assessments of the quality of each publication were undertaken using a categorical rubric. Higher rankings were achieved by authors who conducted reliability tests using repeated test/retest measures, or who conducted tests using multiple samples. A similar rubric was used to rank validity assessments. Validity tests which compared the BRFSS to physical measures were ranked higher than those comparing the BRFSS to other self-reported data. Literature which undertook more sophisticated statistical comparisons was also ranked higher. Results Overall findings indicated that BRFSS prevalence rates were comparable to other national surveys which rely on self-reports, although specific differences are noted for some categories of response. BRFSS prevalence rates were less similar to surveys which utilize physical measures in addition to self-reported data. There is very little research on reliability and validity for some health topics, but a great deal of information supporting the validity of the BRFSS data for others. Conclusions Limitations of the examination of the BRFSS were due to question differences among surveys used as comparisons, as well as mode of data

  4. A systematic review of publications assessing reliability and validity of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), 2004-2011.

    PubMed

    Pierannunzi, Carol; Hu, Shaohua Sean; Balluz, Lina

    2013-03-24

    In recent years response rates on telephone surveys have been declining. Rates for the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (BRFSS) have also declined, prompting the use of new methods of weighting and the inclusion of cell phone sampling frames. A number of scholars and researchers have conducted studies of the reliability and validity of the BRFSS estimates in the context of these changes. As the BRFSS makes changes in its methods of sampling and weighting, a review of reliability and validity studies of the BRFSS is needed. In order to assess the reliability and validity of prevalence estimates taken from the BRFSS, scholarship published from 2004-2011 dealing with tests of reliability and validity of BRFSS measures was compiled and presented by topics of health risk behavior. Assessments of the quality of each publication were undertaken using a categorical rubric. Higher rankings were achieved by authors who conducted reliability tests using repeated test/retest measures, or who conducted tests using multiple samples. A similar rubric was used to rank validity assessments. Validity tests which compared the BRFSS to physical measures were ranked higher than those comparing the BRFSS to other self-reported data. Literature which undertook more sophisticated statistical comparisons was also ranked higher. Overall findings indicated that BRFSS prevalence rates were comparable to other national surveys which rely on self-reports, although specific differences are noted for some categories of response. BRFSS prevalence rates were less similar to surveys which utilize physical measures in addition to self-reported data. There is very little research on reliability and validity for some health topics, but a great deal of information supporting the validity of the BRFSS data for others. Limitations of the examination of the BRFSS were due to question differences among surveys used as comparisons, as well as mode of data collection differences. As the BRFSS moves

  5. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  7. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  8. A Modified Risk Assessment Scoring System for Post Laser In Situ Keratomileusis Ectasia in Topographically Normal Patients

    PubMed Central

    Miraftab, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar; Hashemi, Hassan; Jafari, Fatemeh; Shahnazi, Ashkan; Asgari, Soheila

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate and modify the Randleman Ectasia Risk Score System for predicting post-laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) ectasia in patients with normal preoperative corneal topography. Methods: In this retrospective study we reviewed data from 136 eyes which had undergone LASIK including 34 ectatic and 102 normal eyes between 1999 and 2009. After determining the sensitivity and specificity of the Randleman system, a modified model was designed to predict the risk of post-LASIK corneal ectasia more accurately. Next, the sensitivity and specificity of this modified scoring system was determined and compared to that of the original scoring system. Results: In our sample, the sensitivity and specificity of the Randleman system was 70.1% and 50.5%, respectively. Our modified model included the following parameters: preoperative central corneal thickness, manifest refraction spherical equivalent, and maximum keratometry, as well as the number of months elapsed from surgery. Sensitivity and specificity rates of the modified system were 74.2% and 76.2%, respectively. The difference in receiver operating characteristic curves between the Randleman and modified scoring systems was statistically significant (P<0.001). The best sensitivity and specificity for our model occurred with a cumulative cutoff score of 4.00; a low risk was considered if the score was ≤4.00, and high risk was defined with a score > 4.00. Conclusion: Our modified ectasia risk scoring system for patients with normal corneal topography can predict post LASIK ectasia risk with acceptable sensitivity and specificity. However, there are still unidentified risk factors for which further studies are required. PMID:25709767

  9. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  10. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects.

  11. Assessing watershed-wildfire risks on National Forest System lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States

    Treesearch

    Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Paul G. Langowski; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Jessica R. Haas; Elise M. Bowne

    2013-01-01

    Wildfires can cause significant negative impacts to water quality with resultant consequences for the environment and human health and safety, as well as incurring substantial rehabilitation and water treatment costs. In this paper we will illustrate how state-of-the-art wildfire simulation modeling and geospatial risk assessment methods can be brought to bear to...

  12. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  13. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  14. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  15. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    SciTech Connect

    Tuxen, L.

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  16. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  17. Assessment of region, farming system, irrigation source and sampling time as food safety risk factors for tomatoes.

    PubMed

    Pagadala, Sivaranjani; Marine, Sasha C; Micallef, Shirley A; Wang, Fei; Pahl, Donna M; Melendez, Meredith V; Kline, Wesley L; Oni, Ruth A; Walsh, Christopher S; Everts, Kathryne L; Buchanan, Robert L

    2015-03-02

    In the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, small- and medium-sized farmers use varied farm management methods and water sources to produce tomatoes. It is unclear whether these practices affect the food safety risk for tomatoes. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence, and assess risk factors for Salmonella enterica, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and bacterial indicators in pre-harvest tomatoes and their production areas. A total of 24 organic and conventional, small- to medium-sized farms were sampled for six weeks in Maryland (MD), Delaware (DE) and New Jersey (NJ) between July and September 2012, and analyzed for indicator bacteria, Salmonella and STEC. A total of 422 samples--tomato fruit, irrigation water, compost, field soil and pond sediment samples--were collected, 259 of which were tomato samples. A low level of Salmonella-specific invA and Shiga toxin genes (stx1 or stx2) were detected, but no Salmonella or STEC isolates were recovered. Of the 422 samples analyzed, 9.5% were positive for generic E. coli, found in 5.4% (n=259) of tomato fruits, 22.5% (n=102) of irrigation water, 8.9% (n=45) of soil, 3/9 of pond sediment and 0/7 of compost samples. For tomato fruit, farming system (organic versus conventional) was not a significant factor for levels of indicator bacteria. However, the total number of organic tomato samples positive for generic E. coli (1.6%; 2/129) was significantly lower than for conventional tomatoes (6.9% (9/130); (χ(2) (1)=4.60, p=0.032)). Region was a significant factor for levels of Total Coliforms (TC) (p=0.046), although differences were marginal, with western MD having the highest TC counts (2.6 log CFU/g) and NJ having the lowest (2.0 log CFU/g). Tomatoes touching the ground or plastic mulch harbored significantly higher levels of TC compared to vine tomatoes, signaling a potential risk factor. Source of irrigation water was a significant factor for all indicator bacteria (p<0.0001), and

  18. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  19. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  20. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  1. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  2. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  3. NUREG-1150 risk assessment methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Amos, C.N.; Cunningham, M.A.; Murphy, J.A.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology developed in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NCR's) evaluation of severe accident risks in NUREG-1150. After the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2, the NRC initiated a sever accident research program to develop an improved understanding of severe accidents and to provide a second technical basis to support regulatory decisions in this area. A key product of this program is NUREG-1150, which provides estimates of risk for several nuclear reactors of different design. The principal technical analyses for NUREG-1150 were performed at Sandia National Labs. under the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program and the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program. A major aspect of the work was the development of a methodology that improved upon previous full-scale probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) in several areas which are described.

  4. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  5. A systems approach to the policy-level risk assessment of exotic animal diseases: network model and application to classical swine fever.

    PubMed

    Delgado, João; Pollard, Simon; Snary, Emma; Black, Edgar; Prpich, George; Longhurst, Phil

    2013-08-01

    Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  7. ORAMUS(WINDOWS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  8. ORAMUS(DOS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 acute health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  9. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    PubMed

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  10. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  11. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  12. A scoring system for risk assessment of the introduction and spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in dairy herds in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Luzzago, Camilla; Frigerio, Michela; Piccinini, Renata; Daprà, Valentina; Zecconi, Alfonso

    2008-08-01

    To support a voluntary disease control program, this study aimed to develop an integrated scoring system for the risk assessment of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection in dairy herds in Northern Italy. Sixty-two dairy herds were classified according to their BVDV serological status. Farmers were interviewed using a questionnaire on potential BVDV risk factors. Scores were used to define risk levels for factors related to (1) BVDV introduction (through livestock trade, attendance of animals at shows/exhibitions and grazing common pasture), (2) within-herd spread of BVDV and (3) the results of initial serological testing. The calculated odds ratios were significant for all categories, except for livestock trade. The application of the screening test, the questionnaire and the related risk assessment showed this to be a practical approach to predicting BVDV herd status.

  13. Sex offender risk assessment: the need to place recidivism research in the context of attrition in the criminal justice system.

    PubMed

    Larcombe, Wendy

    2012-04-01

    Jurisdictions in the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia now have laws that enable preventive detention of post-sentence sex offenders based on an assessment of the offender's likely recidivism. Measures of recidivism, or risk assessments, rely on the criminal justice process to produce the "pool" of sex offenders studied. This article argues that recidivism research needs to be placed in the context of attrition studies that document the disproportionate and patterned attrition of sexual offenses and sexual offenders from the criminal justice process. Understanding the common biases that affect criminal prosecution of sex offenses would improve sexual violence prevention policies.

  14. Health risks of energy systems.

    PubMed

    Krewitt, W; Hurley, F; Trukenmüller, A; Friedrich, R

    1998-08-01

    Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.

  15. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  16. Human health risk assessment of heavy metals in soil-vegetable system: a multi-medium analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xingmei; Song, Qiujin; Tang, Yu; Li, Wanlu; Xu, Jianming; Wu, Jianjun; Wang, Fan; Brookes, Philip Charles

    2013-10-01

    Vegetable fields near villages in China are suffering increasing heavy metal damages from various pollution sources including agriculture, traffic, mining and Chinese typical local private family-sized industry. 268 vegetable samples which included rape, celery, cabbages, carrots, asparagus lettuces, cowpeas, tomatoes and cayenne pepper and their corresponding soils in three economically developed areas of Zhejiang Province, China were collected, and the concentrations of five heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cr, Hg and As) in all the samples were determined. The health risk assessment methods developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) were employed to explore the potential health hazards of heavy metals in soils growing vegetables. Results showed that heavy metal contaminations in investigated vegetables and corresponding soils were significant. Pollution levels varied with metals and vegetable types. The highest mean soil concentrations of heavy metals were 70.36 mg kg(-1) Pb, 47.49 mg kg(-1) Cr, 13.51 mg kg(-1) As, 0.73 mg kg(-1) for Cd and 0.67 mg kg(-1) Hg, respectively, while the metal concentrations in vegetables and corresponding soils were poorly correlated. The health risk assessment results indicated that diet dominated the exposure pathways, so heavy metals in soil samples might cause potential harm through food-chain transfer. The total non-cancer and cancer risk results indicated that the investigated arable fields near industrial and waste mining sites were unsuitable for growing leaf and root vegetables in view of the risk of elevated intakes of heavy metals adversely affecting food safety for local residents. Chromium and Pb were the primary heavy metals posing non-cancer risks while Cd caused the greatest cancer risk. It was concluded that more effective controls should be focused on Cd and Cr to reduce pollution in this study area.

  17. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  18. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    PubMed

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  19. A roadmap for hazard monitoring and risk assessment of marine biotoxins on the basis of chemical and biological test systems.

    PubMed

    Daneshian, Mardas; Botana, Luis M; Dechraoui Bottein, Marie-Yasmine; Buckland, Gemma; Campàs, Mònica; Dennison, Ngaire; Dickey, Robert W; Diogène, Jorge; Fessard, Valérie; Hartung, Thomas; Humpage, Andrew; Leist, Marcel; Molgó, Jordi; Quilliam, Michael A; Rovida, Costanza; Suarez-Isla, Benjamin A; Tubaro, Aurelia; Wagner, Kristina; Zoller, Otmar; Dietrich, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Aquatic food accounts for over 40% of global animal food products, and the potential contamination with toxins of algal origin--marine biotoxins--poses a health threat for consumers. The gold standards to assess toxins in aquatic food have traditionally been in vivo methods, i.e., the mouse as well as the rat bioassay. Besides ethical concerns, there is also a need for more reliable test methods because of low inter-species comparability, high intra-species variability, the high number of false positive and negative results as well as questionable extrapolation of quantitative risk to humans. For this reason, a transatlantic group of experts in the field of marine biotoxins was convened from academia and regulatory safety authorities to discuss future approaches to marine biotoxin testing. In this report they provide a background on the toxin classes, on their chemical characterization, the epidemiology, on risk assessment and management, as well as on their assumed mode of action. Most importantly, physiological functional assays such as in vitro bioassays and also analytical techniques, e.g., liquid chromatography coupled mass spectrometry (LC-MS), as substitutes for the rodent bioassay are reviewed. This forms the basis for recommendations on methodologies for hazard monitoring and risk assessment, establishment of causality of intoxications in human cases, a roadmap for research and development of human-relevant functional assays, as well as new approaches for a consumer directed safety concept.

  20. Assessing information system readiness for mitigating malpractice risk through simulation: results of a multi-site study.

    PubMed

    Wright, Adam; Maloney, Francine L; Wien, Matthew; Samal, Lipika; Emani, Srinivas; Zuccotti, Gianna

    2015-09-01

    To develop and test an instrument for assessing a healthcare organization's ability to mitigate malpractice risk through clinical decision support (CDS). Based on a previously collected malpractice data set, we identified common types of CDS and the number and cost of malpractice cases that might have been prevented through this CDS. We then designed clinical vignettes and questions that test an organization's CDS capabilities through simulation. Seven healthcare organizations completed the simulation. All seven organizations successfully completed the self-assessment. The proportion of potentially preventable indemnity loss for which CDS was available ranged from 16.5% to 73.2%. There is a wide range in organizational ability to mitigate malpractice risk through CDS, with many organizations' electronic health records only being able to prevent a small portion of malpractice events seen in a real-world dataset. The simulation approach to assessing malpractice risk mitigation through CDS was effective. Organizations should consider using malpractice claims experience to facilitate prioritizing CDS development. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  2. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    PubMed

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  3. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  4. Systemic Approach for Health Risk Assessment of Ambient Air Concentrations of Benzene in Petrochemical Environments: Integration of Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Network, and IRIS Toxicity Method

    PubMed Central

    NOVIN, Vahid; GIVEHCHI, Saeed; HOVEIDI, Hassan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Reliable methods are crucial to cope with uncertainties in the risk analysis process. The aim of this study is to develop an integrated approach to assessing risks of benzene in the petrochemical plant that produces benzene. We offer an integrated system to contribute imprecise variables into the health risk calculation. Methods: The project was conducted in Asaluyeh, southern Iran during the years from 2013 to 2014. Integrated method includes fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. Each technique had specific computational properties. Fuzzy logic was used for estimation of absorption rate. Artificial neural networks can decrease the noise of the data so applied for prediction of benzene concentration. First, the actual exposure was calculated then it combined with Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) toxicity factors to assess real health risks. Results: High correlation between the measured and predicted benzene concentration was achieved (R2= 0.941). As for variable distribution, the best estimation of risk in a population implied 33% of workers exposed less than 1×10−5 and 67% inserted between 1.0×10−5 to 9.8×10−5 risk levels. The average estimated risk of exposure to benzene for entire work zones is equal to 2.4×10−5, ranging from 1.5×10−6 to 6.9×10−5. Conclusion: The integrated model is highly flexible as well as the rules possibly will be changed according to the necessities of the user in a different circumstance. The measured exposures can be duplicated well through proposed model and realistic risk assessment data will be produced. PMID:27957464

  5. Systemic Approach for Health Risk Assessment of Ambient Air Concentrations of Benzene in Petrochemical Environments: Integration of Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Network, and IRIS Toxicity Method.

    PubMed

    Novin, Vahid; Givehchi, Saeed; Hoveidi, Hassan

    2016-09-01

    Reliable methods are crucial to cope with uncertainties in the risk analysis process. The aim of this study is to develop an integrated approach to assessing risks of benzene in the petrochemical plant that produces benzene. We offer an integrated system to contribute imprecise variables into the health risk calculation. The project was conducted in Asaluyeh, southern Iran during the years from 2013 to 2014. Integrated method includes fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. Each technique had specific computational properties. Fuzzy logic was used for estimation of absorption rate. Artificial neural networks can decrease the noise of the data so applied for prediction of benzene concentration. First, the actual exposure was calculated then it combined with Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) toxicity factors to assess real health risks. High correlation between the measured and predicted benzene concentration was achieved (R(2)= 0.941). As for variable distribution, the best estimation of risk in a population implied 33% of workers exposed less than 1×10(-5) and 67% inserted between 1.0×10(-5) to 9.8×10(-5) risk levels. The average estimated risk of exposure to benzene for entire work zones is equal to 2.4×10(-5), ranging from 1.5×10(-6) to 6.9×10(-5). The integrated model is highly flexible as well as the rules possibly will be changed according to the necessities of the user in a different circumstance. The measured exposures can be duplicated well through proposed model and realistic risk assessment data will be produced.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    SciTech Connect

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed.

  7. Applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.J.; Chapman, J.R.; Follen, S.M.; O'Regan, P.J. )

    1991-05-01

    This report provides a summary of potential and actual applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technology and insights. Individual applications are derived from the experiences of a number of US nuclear utilities. This report identifies numerous applications of PRA techniques beyond those typically associated with PRAs. In addition, believing that the future use of PRA techniques should not be limited to those of the past, areas of plant operations, maintenance, and financial resource allocation are discussed. 9 refs., 3 tabs.

  8. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    PubMed

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  9. Risk assessment for pulmonary resection.

    PubMed

    Brunelli, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment for pulmonary resection must include a preliminary cardiac evaluation. Patients deemed at prohibitive cardiac risk should be evaluated and treated as per American Heart Association/American Society of Cardiology guidelines. Those with low cardiac risk or with optimized treatment can proceed with pulmonary assessment. A systematic measurement of lung carbon monoxide diffusing capacity is recommended. In addition, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second should not be used alone for patient selection because it is not an accurate predictor of complications, particularly in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The use of exercise testing should be emphasized. Low-technology tests, such as stair climbing, can be used whenever a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test is not readily available. However, in case of suboptimal performance (ie, <22 m in the stair-climbing test) patients should be referred to cardiopulmonary exercise testing with measurement of Vo(2max) for a better definition of their aerobic reserve. A Vo(2max) less than 10 mL/kg/min (or <35% of predicted) indicates a high risk for major lung resection.

  10. Assessment of geomorphic risks and attractiveness to recreational systems: a case of Nalychevo Nature Park (Kamchatka, Russia).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blinova, I.; Bredikhin, A.

    2012-04-01

    . "Volcanoes of Kamchatka" are included on UNESCO's World Heritage List. In spite of general fame of Far East recreational resources there are still areas which are not affected by human activities (including recreation and tourism) in immediate proximity to the regional center. This is usually caused by poor infrastructure and lack of information about natural objects. Natural Park Nalychevo, located 50 km NE from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, represents an example of wild area not involved in human activities. The diversity of natural conditions and relief forms creates the necessary prerequisites for assignment a wide range of recreation specialization: balneal, hillwalking, sports (skiing, hiking etc.), environmental education. Hierarchical polycentric structure of Nature Park hampers its management and further development. Moreover, poor infrastructure aggravates the situation. Speaking of prospects for further elaboration of Nature Park, along with high geomorphic attractiveness we should take into account enormous risks induced by active relief dynamics. Sober assessment and analysis of these peculiarities allows to manage it effectively.

  11. Use of contraception among US women reporting postpartum depressive symptoms, pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system 2009-2011.

    PubMed

    Lawley, Megan E; Haddad, Lisa; Burley, Kim; Farr, Sherry L

    2017-09-25

    We sought to determine the prevalence of postpartum contraceptive use among women with postpartum depressive symptoms (PDS) and examine the association between PDS and contraceptive method. We evaluated data from 16,357 postpartum women participating in the 2009-2011 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System. PDS was defined as an additive score of ≥10 for three questions on depression, hopelessness, and feeling physically slowed. Contraceptive use was categorized as permanent, long-acting reversible contraception (LARC), user-dependent hormonal, and user-dependent non-hormonal. Logistic regression models compared postpartum contraceptive use and method by PDS status. In total, 12.3% of women with a recent live birth reported PDS. Large percentages of women with (69.4%) and without (76.1%) PDS, used user-dependent or no contraceptive method. There were no associations between PDS and use of any postpartum contraception (adjusted Prevalence Ratio (aPR)=1.00, 95% CI 0.98-1.03) or permanent contraception (aPR=1.05, 95% CI 0.88-1.27). LARC use was elevated, but not significantly, among women with PDS compared to those without (aPR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.34). Large percentages of women with and without PDS used user-dependent or no contraception. Since depression may be associated with misuse of user-dependent methods, counseling women about how to use methods more effectively, as well as the effectiveness of non-user dependent methods, may be beneficial. A large percentage of women with PDS are either not using contraception or using less effective user-dependent methods. Since depression may be associated with misuse of user-dependent contraceptive methods, counseling women about how to use methods more effectively, as well as non-user dependent options, such as LARC, may be beneficial. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  13. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  14. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  15. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  16. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  17. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  18. Pressure sore risk assessment in children.

    PubMed

    Waterlow, J A

    1997-07-01

    A multi-centred study was undertaken involving 300 children ranging from neonates to children aged 16 years. The purpose of the study was to investigate the possibility of designing a pressure sore risk assessment scoring system suitable for the paediatric area of care. It was found that the following conclusions can be drawn: (i) Children are at risk of developing pressure sores; (ii) A version of the adult Waterlow card was not appropriate, especially at the younger end of the scale; (iii) There are identifiable situations and treatments which do pose a risk of pressure sore development. Admission documentation and a care plan within a hospital policy is recommended as the best method of drawing nurses' attention to the risk factors involved and the measures which need to be taken to alleviate the risk of tissue damage.

  19. Surveillance for selected maternal behaviors and experiences before, during, and after pregnancy. Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), 2000.

    PubMed

    Williams, Letitia M; Morrow, Brian; Lansky, Amy; Beck, Laurie F; Barfield, Wanda; Helms, Kristen; Lipscomb, Leslie; Whitehead, Nedra

    2003-11-14

    Various maternal behaviors and experiences are associated with adverse health outcomes for both the mother and the infant. These behaviors and experiences can occur before pregnancy (e.g., insufficient intake of folic acid), during pregnancy (e.g., complications requiring hospitalization, such as high blood pressure), and after pregnancy (e.g., inadequate follow-up of infants who were discharged early). Information regarding maternal behaviors and experiences is needed to monitor trends, to enhance the understanding of the relations between behaviors and health outcomes, to plan and evaluate programs, to direct policy decisions, and to monitor progress toward Healthy People 2010 objectives (US Department of Health and Human Services. Healthy People 2010. 2nd. ed. With understanding and improving health and objectives for improving health [2 vols.]. Washington DC: US Department of Health and Human Services, 2000). This report covers data for 2000. The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) is an ongoing, state- and population-based surveillance system designed to monitor selected self-reported maternal behaviors and experiences that occur before, during, and after pregnancy among women who deliver a live-born infant in 31 states and New York City. PRAMS employs a mixed-mode data collection methodology; as many as three self-administered surveys are mailed to a sample of mothers, and nonresponders are followed up with a telephone interview. Self-reported survey data are linked to selected birth certificate data and weighted for sample design, nonresponse, and noncoverage to create annual PRAMS analysis data sets. PRAMS data can be used to produce statewide estimates of various perinatal health behaviors and experiences among women delivering a live infant. Four indicators for the year 2000 (multivitamin use, pregnancy-related complications, infant checkup, and postpartum contraceptive use) from 19 states are examined in this report. In 2000, the

  20. Using parent and youth reports from the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition to identify individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Elizabeth; Kline, Emily; Reeves, Gloria; Pitts, Steven C; Bussell, Kristin; Schiffman, Jason

    2014-04-01

    Brief self-report screening can help facilitate early identification of individuals at risk for or in early stages of psychosis. Existing screening tools focus on self-reported attenuated positive symptoms to detect potential risk; however, parent reports may also be helpful for assessing symptoms, especially in younger patients. Recent evidence has shown that the "atypicality" scale within the self-report form of the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2) may be useful for identifying high-risk youth within a more clinically comprehensive and potentially minimally stigmatizing format. The BASC-2 parent report form also includes the atypicality scale, but no research has investigated the relation of this scale to psychosis risk. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the association of parent along with youth reports of BASC-2 atypicality with attenuated positive symptoms as assessed by the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS), in a sample of help-seeking adolescents (n=63). Results indicate that both parent and youth reports of atypicality predict clinician-rated symptoms. Moreover, the combination of parent and youth report significantly improved prediction of SIPS scores over either single-informant scale. These findings suggest that parent report scales, as ascertained through part of a larger, commonly used measure, may help identify youth at risk for psychosis, particularly if used in conjunction with youth self-report. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.