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Sample records for risk assessment system

  1. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  3. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  4. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  5. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  6. Code System for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 SEISIM1 calculates the probabilities of seismically induced failures for components and systems and propagates these calculations to determine the probability of accident sequences and the resulting total risk, which is quantified as an expected value of radiation release and exposure from a given nuclear power plant. SEISIM1 was developed as a fundamental tool for the systems analysis portion of the NRC's Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). The SSMRP provides a complete, self-containedmore » methodology to assess and quantify the risk to nuclear power plants from seismic events and seismically induced failures.« less

  7. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System.

    2000-11-20

    Version 00 SARA4.16 is a program that allows the user to review the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and to perform limited sensitivity analysis on these results. This tool is intended to be used by a less technical oriented user and does not require the level of understanding of PRA concepts required by a full PRA analysis tool. With this program a user can review the information generated by a PRA analyst andmore » compare the results to those generated by making limited modifications to the data in the PRA. Also included in this program is the ability to graphically display the information stored in the database. This information includes event trees, fault trees, P&IDs and uncertainty distributions. SARA 4.16 is incorporated in the SAPHIRE 5.0 code package.« less

  8. Mechanical system reliability and risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.; Huang, Q.; Mehta, S.

    1994-11-01

    A new methodology is reported for the prediction of the reliability of mechanical structures subject to multiple failure modes, including noncritical damage. The reduction of system reliability due to accumulated damage is quantitatively estimated by updating the critical system failure states at each level of damage. Correlated design variables are automatically accounted for in the system reliability calculations. Second-order reliability bounds are reported which are unbiased to the ordering of the events. A system risk assessment methodology is also reported that accounts for the cost of multiple types of failure modes and includes the effect of inspection success on reducing the consequences of system failure. Application of the new technology is illustrated for a simplified system model of an aeropropulsion rotor system. However, the methodology is general and is applicable to any engineering system.

  9. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  10. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  11. Understanding the system in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Craft, R.; Vandewart, R.; Wyss, G.; Funkhouser, D.

    1998-02-01

    In the assessment of a system, understanding the system is central. Even so, most of the current literature takes a narrow view of understanding, making only the catalog of system ``assets`` explicit, while maintaining the balance of the analyst`s understanding inside the analyst`s head. This can lead to problems with non-repeatability and incompleteness of assessment results. This paper introduces the notion of using explicit system models to document the analyst`s understanding of the system and shows that, from these models, standard assessment products, such as fault trees and event trees, can be automatically derived. This paper also presents five ``views`` of a system that can be used to document the analyst`s understanding of the system. These views go well beyond the standard instruction to identify the system`s assets to show that a much richer understanding of the system can be required for effective assessment.

  12. [Research progress on index system of regional ecological risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Meng, Ji-Jun; Zhao, Chun-Hong

    2009-04-01

    Regional ecological risk assessment (RERA) covers the assessments of multiple risk sources, receptors, and endpoints, while the selection of assessment indices is quite complicated, being a hotspot in regional environment management research. Domestic and international researches on RERA revealed that three processes in RERA are of vital, i.e., risk probability assessment measured by risk probability index, status and value assessment of ecosystem at regional scale indicated by ecological index, and vulnerability assessment of each ecosystem in a region under risk measured by vulnerability index. The main problems in the establishment of RERA index system are the strong subjectivity and poor comparability, and thus, the index system should be set up in the three key processes under the principles of objectivity, integration, hierarchy, and comparability. Due to the fact that the status and value assessment of ecosystem is most complicated, the index system should be formulated by compulsory and optional components to increase the comparability of RERA results between regions.

  13. Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

  14. Systems Biology & Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology for risk assessment of environmental chemicals is a national extension of its use in pharmaceutical research. The basis for this is the concept of a key event network that builds on existing mode of action frameworks for risk assessment. The a...

  15. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology.

    PubMed

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hayes, A Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  16. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  17. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, M.D.; Varma, R.; Heger, A.S.

    1996-03-01

    Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.

  18. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    SciTech Connect

    Jansma, R.; Fletcher, S.; Halbgewachs, R.; Lim, J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.; Wyss, G.

    1995-03-01

    Correct operation of an information system requires a balance of ``surety`` domains -- access control (confidentiality), integrity, utility, availability, and safety. However, traditional approaches provide little help on how to systematically analyze and balance the combined impact of surety requirements on a system. The key to achieving information system surety is identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating the sources of risk that may lead to system failure. Consequently, the authors propose a risk assessment methodology that provides a framework to guide the analyst in identifying and prioritizing sources of risk and selecting mitigation techniques. The framework leads the analyst to develop a risk-based system model for balancing the surety requirements and quantifying the effectiveness and combined impact of the mitigation techniques. Such a model allows the information system designer to make informed trade-offs based on the most effective risk-reduction measures.

  19. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    SciTech Connect

    Jansma, R.M.; Fletcher, S.K.; Murphy, M.D.; Lim, J.J.; Wyss, G.D.

    1996-07-01

    When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems and address a broad range of risks including security, safety, and correct operation. A unique aspect of this methodology is the use of a modeling technique that captures interactions and tradeoffs among risk mitigators. This paper describes the concepts and components of the methodology and presents its application to example systems.

  20. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  1. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

  2. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

  3. Risk assessment and integrity in system design

    SciTech Connect

    Berg, R.S.; Winter, V.

    1998-03-01

    All systems, regardless of how carefully they have been constructed, suffer failures. This paper focuses on developing a formal understanding of failure with respect to system implementations. Furthermore, the authors would like the system design process to be able to leverage off of this understanding. It is important to deal with failures in a system context, rather than a priori limiting the solution to a particular technology, such as software alone. Their approach is limited to the class of systems that can be modeled by hybrid finite state machines (HFSMs) as described in Winter. The purpose of this paper is to lay out a process, or framework that can aid in identification and characterization of techniques for dealing with the different types of system threats. This framework leads naturally to a taxonomy of technologies and strategies for dealing with the various types of threats. In this process technologies are used to identify a priority list of technical capabilities for dealing with threats. The technologies are prioritized according to their analyzability and predictability. Strategies are then used to identify specific implementations that are best suited to dealing with the threat.

  4. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures. PMID:27575259

  5. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures.

  6. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  7. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

    PubMed

    Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  8. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, B.; Hübl, J.; Fuchs, S.

    2009-02-01

    During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1) to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2) to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  9. Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

  10. Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

  11. Small scale water recycling systems--risk assessment and modelling.

    PubMed

    Diaper, C; Dixon, A; Bulier, D; Fewkes, A; Parsons, S A; Strathern, M; Stephenson, T; Strutt, J

    2001-01-01

    This paper aims to use quantitative risk analysis, risk modelling and simulation modelling tools to assess the performance of a proprietary single house grey water recycling system. A preliminary Hazard and Operability study (HAZOP) identified the main hazards, both health related and economic, associated with installing the recycling system in a domestic environment. The health related consequences of system failure were associated with the presence of increased concentrations of micro-organisms at the point of use, due to failure of the disinfection system and/or the pump. The risk model was used to assess the increase in the probability of infection for a particular genus of micro-organism, Salmonella spp, during disinfection failure. The increase in the number of cases of infection above a base rate rose from 0.001% during normal operation, to 4% for a recycling system with no disinfection. The simulation model was used to examine the possible effects of pump failure. The model indicated that the anaerobic COD release rate in the system storage tank increases over time and dissolved oxygen decreases during this failure mode. These conditions are likely to result in odour problems.

  12. Development and Validation of an Automated Sepsis Risk Assessment System.

    PubMed

    Back, Ji-Sun; Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-10-01

    Aggressive resuscitation can decrease sepsis mortality, but its success depends on early detection of sepsis. The purpose of this study was to develop and verify an Automated Sepsis Risk Assessment System (Auto-SepRAS), which would automatically assess the sepsis risk of inpatients by applying data mining techniques to electronic health records (EHR) data and provide daily updates. The seven predictors included in the Auto-SepRAS after initial analysis were admission via the emergency department, which had the highest odds ratio; diastolic blood pressure; length of stay; respiratory rate; heart rate; and age. Auto-SepRAS classifies inpatients into three risk levels (high, moderate, and low) based on the predictive values from the sepsis risk-scoring algorithm. The sepsis risk for each patient is presented on the nursing screen of the EHR. The AutoSepRAS was implemented retrospectively in several stages using EHR data and its cut-off scores adjusted. Overall discrimination power was moderate (AUC>.80). The Auto-SepRAS should be verified or updated continuously or intermittently to maintain high predictive performance, but it does not require invasive tests or data input by nurses that would require additional time. Nurses are able to provide patients with nursing care appropriate to their risk levels by using the sepsis risk information provided by the Auto-SepRAS. In particular, with early detection of changes related to sepsis, nurses should be able to help in providing rapid initial resuscitation of high-risk patients. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. In-home fall risk assessment and detection sensor system.

    PubMed

    Rantz, Marilyn J; Skubic, Marjorie; Abbott, Carmen; Galambos, Colleen; Pak, Youngju; Ho, Dominic K C; Stone, Erik E; Rui, Liyang; Back, Jessica; Miller, Steven J

    2013-07-01

    Falls are a major problem in older adults. A continuous, unobtrusive, environmentally mounted (i.e., embedded into the environment and not worn by the individual), in-home monitoring system that automatically detects when falls have occurred or when the risk of falling is increasing could alert health care providers and family members to intervene to improve physical function or manage illnesses that may precipitate falls. Researchers at the University of Missouri Center for Eldercare and Rehabilitation Technology are testing such sensor systems for fall risk assessment (FRA) and detection in older adults' apartments in a senior living community. Initial results comparing ground truth (validated measures) of FRA data and GAITRite System parameters with data captured from Microsoft(®) Kinect and pulse-Doppler radar are reported. PMID:23675644

  14. Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2002-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine

  15. [Support system to the process of risk assessment in construction company: assessment, drafting, and review].

    PubMed

    Ramenghi, D; Golferini, M

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study is provide a tool for perrforming risk assessment, a methodology for completing the risk assessment document and a support tool to objectively review the Risk Assessment Document (RAD) in order to its improvement. Starting from a series of documents available such as legislation, literature, best practices, guidelines, and evaluating the documents of 10 construction companies, has been defined list of content needed to RAD. In conclusion, we have implemented a support system organized into chapters that allow the Employer/competent doctor compiling/evaluating the DVR. PMID:23405703

  16. Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment Developed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.

    2001-01-01

    In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decisionmakers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine.

  17. Development of human epithelial cell systems for radiation risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, C. H.; Craise, L. M.

    1994-01-01

    The most important health effect of space radiation for astronauts is cancer induction. For radiation risk assessment, an understanding of carcinogenic effect of heavy ions in human cells is most essential. In our laboratory, we have successfully developed a human mammary epithelial cell system for studying the neoplastic transformation in vitro. Growth variants were obtained from heavy ion irradiated immortal mammary cell line. These cloned growth variants can grow in regular tissue culture media and maintain anchorage dependent growth and density inhibition property. Upon further irradiation with high-Linear Energy Transfer (LET) radiation, transformed foci were found. Experimental results from these studies suggest that multiexposure of radiation is required to induce neoplastic tranformation of human epithelial cells. This multihits requirement may be due to high genomic stability of human cells. These growth variants can be useful model systems for space flight experiments to determine the carcinogenic effect of space radiation in human epithelial cells.

  18. Development of human epithelial cell systems for radiation risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Yang, C H; Craise, L M

    1994-01-01

    The most important health effect of space radiation for astronauts is cancer induction. For radiation risk assessment, an understanding of carcinogenic effect of heavy ions in human cells is most essential. In our laboratory, we have successfully developed a human mammary epithelial cell system for studying the neoplastic transformation in vitro. Growth variants were obtained from heavy ion irradiated immortal mammary cell line. These cloned growth variants can grow in regular tissue culture media and maintain anchorage dependent growth and density inhibition property. Upon further irradiation with high-LET radiation, transformed foci were found. Experimental results from these studies suggest that multiexposure of radiation is required to induce neoplastic transformation of human epithelial cells. This multihits requirement may be due to high genomic stability of human cells. These growth variants can be useful model systems for space flight experiments to determine the carcinogenic effect of space radiation in human epithelial cells. PMID:11538024

  19. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  20. Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steinberg, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Rossi, M.; Riccio, G.; Romero, E.; Francisco, D.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and

  1. A TEST OF WATERSHED CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    To facilitate extrapolation among watersheds, ecological risk assessments should be based on a model of underlying factors influencing watershed response, particularly vulnerability. We propose a conceptual model of landscape vulnerability to serve as a basis for watershed classi...

  2. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  3. Decision-Making in Child Protective Services: A Comparison of Selected Risk-Assessment Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doueck, Howard J.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the benefits and shortcomings of three systems for assessing risk factors affecting children: the Illinois CANTS 17B; the Washington Assessment of Risk Matrix; the Child at Risk Field System. Although these systems are used in 23 states, the lack of staff knowledgeable about human development and the uncertain reliability and validity of…

  4. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  5. 75 FR 2823 - Incorporating Employee Compensation Criteria Into the Risk Assessment System

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-19

    ... CORPORATION 12 CFR Part 327 RIN 3064-AD56 Incorporating Employee Compensation Criteria Into the Risk... criteria into the risk-based assessment system. The FDIC does not seek to limit the amount which employees... criteria upon which to base adjustments to the risk-based assessment system in order to correctly price...

  6. Hanford Waste Vitrification Systems Risk Assessment: Final report supporting information

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-09-01

    This document contains the background information developed in the assessment of the uncertainties associated with the successful completion of the Hanford Site waste vitrification program. This supporting information was assembled and issued as a separate document to facilitate distribution of the large volume of detailed data and supporting materials to the smaller group needing access to this information. Section 2.0 includes a reference documentation list used during by Risk Assessment authors, and a copy of the documentation associated with the retirement and disposition schedule for the Risk Assessment files. This report, Appendix A includes the single-shell tank waste supporting information, a risk assessment report prepared by the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), the Venture Evaluation and Review Technique (VERT) model database used to generate the risk analysis results, and a VERT user's manual, also prepared by the SAIC. Also included in Appendix A are selected VERT program run output documentation, which are provided as examples of the VERT model outputs.

  7. Exposure as Part of a Systems Approach for Assessing Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is facing large challenges in managing environmental chemicals with increasingly complex requirements for assessing risk that push the limits of our current approaches. To address some of these challenges, the National Research Council (NR...

  8. A risk assessment of two interorganizational clinical information systems.

    PubMed

    Sicotte, Claude; Paré, Guy; Moreault, Marie-Pierre; Paccioni, André

    2006-01-01

    A risk analysis framework was used to examine the implementation barriers that may hamper the successful implementation of interorganizational clinical information systems (ICIS). In terms of study design, an extensive literature review was first performed in order to elaborate a comprehensive model of project risk factors. To test the applicability of the model, we next conducted a longitudinal multiple-case study of two large-scale ICIS demonstration projects carried out in Quebec, Canada. Variations in the levels of several risk dimensions measured throughout the duration of the projects were analyzed to determine their impact on successful implementation. The analysis shows that the proposed framework, composed of five risk dimensions, was very robust, and suitable for conducting a thorough risk analysis. The results also show that there are links between the quality of the risk management and the level of project outcomes. To be successful, it is important that the implementation efforts be distributed proportionally according to the importance of each of the risk factors. Furthermore, because the risks evolve dynamically, there is a need for high responsiveness to emerging implementation problems. Thus, implementation success lies in the ability of the project management team to be aware of and to manage several risk threats simultaneously and coherently since they evolve dynamically through time and interact with one another. PMID:16799130

  9. A Risk Assessment of Two Interorganizational Clinical Information Systems

    PubMed Central

    Sicotte, Claude; Paré, Guy; Moreault, Marie-Pierre; Paccioni, André

    2006-01-01

    A risk analysis framework was used to examine the implementation barriers that may hamper the successful implementation of interorganizational clinical information systems (ICIS). In terms of study design, an extensive literature review was first performed in order to elaborate a comprehensive model of project risk factors. To test the applicability of the model, we next conducted a longitudinal multiple-case study of two large-scale ICIS demonstration projects carried out in Quebec, Canada. Variations in the levels of several risk dimensions measured throughout the duration of the projects were analyzed to determine their impact on successful implementation. The analysis shows that the proposed framework, composed of five risk dimensions, was very robust, and suitable for conducting a thorough risk analysis. The results also show that there are links between the quality of the risk management and the level of project outcomes. To be successful, it is important that the implementation efforts be distributed proportionally according to the importance of each of the risk factors. Furthermore, because the risks evolve dynamically, there is a need for high responsiveness to emerging implementation problems. Thus, implementation success lies in the ability of the project management team to be aware of and to manage several risk threats simultaneously and coherently since they evolve dynamically through time and interact with one another. PMID:16799130

  10. 12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Systemic risk emergency special assessment to... STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss. To the extent that the assessments provided under § 370.6 or § 370.7, other...

  11. 12 CFR 370.8 - Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Systemic risk emergency special assessment to... STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY GUARANTEE PROGRAM § 370.8 Systemic risk emergency special assessment to recover loss. To the extent that the assessments provided under § 370.6 or § 370.7, other...

  12. System Analysis and Risk Assessment system (SARA) Version 4.0

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M B; Russell, K D; Skinner, N L

    1992-01-01

    This NUREG is the tutorial for the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) Version 4.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a family (i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed). A series of lessons are provided that walk the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis.

  13. Threshold exceedance risk assessment in complex space-time systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angulo, José M.; Madrid, Ana E.; Romero, José L.

    2015-04-01

    Environmental and health impact risk assessment studies most often involve analysis and characterization of complex spatio-temporal dynamics. Recent developments in this context are addressed, among other objectives, to proper representation of structural heterogeneities, heavy-tailed processes, long-range dependence, intermittency, scaling behavior, etc. Extremal behaviour related to spatial threshold exceedances can be described in terms of geometrical characteristics and distribution patterns of excursion sets, which are the basis for construction of risk-related quantities, such as in the case of evolutionary study of 'hotspots' and long-term indicators of occurrence of extremal episodes. Derivation of flexible techniques, suitable for both the application under general conditions and the interpretation on singularities, is important for practice. Modern risk theory, a developing discipline motivated by the need to establish solid general mathematical-probabilistic foundations for rigorous definition and characterization of risk measures, has led to the introduction of a variety of classes and families, ranging from some conceptually inspired by specific fields of applications, to some intended to provide generality and flexibility to risk analysts under parametric specifications, etc. Quantile-based risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), Average Value-at-Risk (AVaR), and generalization to spectral measures, are of particular interest for assessment under very general conditions. In this work, we study the application of quantile-based risk measures in the spatio-temporal context in relation to certain geometrical characteristics of spatial threshold exceedance sets. In particular, we establish a closed-form relationship between VaR, AVaR, and the expected value of threshold exceedance areas and excess volumes. Conditional simulation allows us, by means of empirical global and local spatial cumulative distributions, the derivation of various statistics of

  14. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  15. Humans vs Hardware: The Unique World of NASA Human System Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Overton, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Understanding spaceflight risks to crew health and performance is a crucial aspect of preparing for exploration missions in the future. The research activities of the Human Research Program (HRP) provide substantial evidence to support most risk reduction work. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), acting on behalf of the Office of Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO), assesses these risks and assigns likelihood and consequence ratings to track progress. Unfortunately, many traditional approaches in risk assessment such as those used in the engineering aspects of spaceflight are difficult to apply to human system risks. This presentation discusses the unique aspects of risk assessment from the human system risk perspective and how these limitations are accommodated and addressed in order to ensure that reasonable inputs are provided to support the OCHMO's overall risk posture for manned exploration missions.

  16. Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

  17. Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-01-01

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

  18. Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

    PubMed

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-04-19

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

  19. Life insurance risk assessment using a fuzzy logic expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carreno, Luis A.; Steel, Roy A.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, we present a knowledge based system that combines fuzzy processing with rule-based processing to form an improved decision aid for evaluating risk for life insurance. This application illustrates the use of FuzzyCLIPS to build a knowledge based decision support system possessing fuzzy components to improve user interactions and KBS performance. The results employing FuzzyCLIPS are compared with the results obtained from the solution of the problem using traditional numerical equations. The design of the fuzzy solution consists of a CLIPS rule-based system for some factors combined with fuzzy logic rules for others. This paper describes the problem, proposes a solution, presents the results, and provides a sample output of the software product.

  20. Systems Biology and Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment (BioIT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology for risk assessment of environmental chemicals is a natural extension of its use in pharmaceutical research. The basis for this is the concept of a key event network that builds on existing mode of action frameworks for risk assessment. The ap...

  1. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  2. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs.

  3. Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system. PMID:27076477

  4. [The socio-hygienic monitoring as an integral system for health risk assessment and risk management at the regional level].

    PubMed

    Kuzmin, S V; Gurvich, V B; Dikonskaya, O V; Malykh, O L; Yarushin, S V; Romanov, S V; Kornilkov, A S

    2013-01-01

    The information and analytical framework for the introduction of health risk assessment and risk management methodologies in the Sverdlovsk Region is the system of socio-hygienic monitoring. Techniques of risk management that take into account the choice of most cost-effective and efficient actions for improvement of the sanitary and epidemiologic situation at the level of the region, municipality, or a business entity of the Russian Federation, have been developed and proposed. To assess the efficiency of planning and activities for health risk management common method approaches and economic methods of "cost-effectiveness" and "cost-benefit" analyses provided in method recommendations and introduced in the Russian Federation are applied.

  5. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology

    SciTech Connect

    Mattison, D.R.; Jelovsek, F.R.

    1987-12-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approaches that are formally capable of using biologically relevant information (pharmacokinetics and expert system shells) are explored as aids to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

  6. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  7. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  8. DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

    PubMed

    Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

    2014-03-25

    Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry. PMID:24308933

  9. DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

    PubMed

    Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

    2014-03-25

    Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry.

  10. An Educational System to Help Students Assess Website Features and Identify High-Risk Websites

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kajiyama, Tomoko; Echizen, Isao

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective educational system to help students assess Web site risk by providing an environment in which students can better understand a Web site's features and determine the risks of accessing the Web site for themselves. Design/methodology/approach: The authors have enhanced a prototype…

  11. Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

    2008-11-15

    In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculations were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm.

  12. Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guarro, Sergio B.

    2010-01-01

    This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

  13. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  14. Validating the Use of pPerformance Risk Indices for System-Level Risk and Maturity Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holloman, Sherrica S.

    With pressure on the U.S. Defense Acquisition System (DAS) to reduce cost overruns and schedule delays, system engineers' performance is only as good as their tools. Recent literature details a need for 1) objective, analytical risk quantification methodologies over traditional subjective qualitative methods -- such as, expert judgment, and 2) mathematically rigorous system-level maturity assessments. The Mahafza, Componation, and Tippett (2005) Technology Performance Risk Index (TPRI) ties the assessment of technical performance to the quantification of risk of unmet performance; however, it is structured for component- level data as input. This study's aim is to establish a modified TPRI with systems-level data as model input, and then validate the modified index with actual system-level data from the Department of Defense's (DoD) Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs). This work's contribution is the establishment and validation of the System-level Performance Risk Index (SPRI). With the introduction of the SPRI, system-level metrics are better aligned, allowing for better assessment, tradeoff and balance of time, performance and cost constraints. This will allow system engineers and program managers to ultimately make better-informed system-level technical decisions throughout the development phase.

  15. Systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication.

    PubMed

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2012-09-01

    This article is grounded on the premise that the complex process of risk assessment, management, and communication, when applied to systems of systems, should be guided by universal systems-based principles. It is written from the perspective of systems engineering with the hope and expectation that the principles introduced here will be supplemented and complemented by principles from the perspectives of other disciplines. Indeed, there is no claim that the following 10 guiding principles constitute a complete set; rather, the intent is to initiate a discussion on this important subject that will incrementally lead us to a more complete set of guiding principles. The 10 principles are as follows: First Principle: Holism is the common denominator that bridges risk analysis and systems engineering. Second Principle: The process of risk modeling, assessment, management, and communication must be systemic and integrated. Third Principle: Models and state variables are central to quantitative risk analysis. Fourth Principle: Multiple models are required to represent the essence of the multiple perspectives of complex systems of systems. Fifth Principle: Meta-modeling and subsystems integration must be derived from the intrinsic states of the system of systems. Sixth Principle: Multiple conflicting and competing objectives are inherent in risk management. Seventh Principle: Risk analysis must account for epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Eighth Principle: Risk analysis must account for risks of low probability with extreme consequences. Ninth Principle: The time frame is central to quantitative risk analysis. Tenth Principle: Risk analysis must be holistic, adaptive, incremental, and sustainable, and it must be supported with appropriate data collection, metrics with which to measure efficacious progress, and criteria on the basis of which to act. The relevance and efficacy of each guiding principle is demonstrated by applying it to the U.S. Federal Aviation

  16. Risk assessment of pesticides used in rice-prawn concurrent systems in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Sumon, Kizar Ahmed; Rico, Andreu; Ter Horst, Mechteld M S; Van den Brink, Paul J; Haque, Mohammad Mahfujul; Rashid, Harunur

    2016-10-15

    The objectives of the current study were to determine the occupational health hazards posed by the application of pesticides in rice-prawn concurrent systems of south-west Bangladesh and to assess their potential risks for the aquatic ecosystems that support the culture of freshwater prawns (Macrobrachium rosenbergii). Information on pesticide use in rice-prawn farming was collected through structured interviews with 38 farm owners held between January and May of 2012. The risks of the pesticide use to human health were assessed through structured interviews. The TOXSWA model was used to calculate pesticide exposure (peak and time-weighted average concentrations) in surface waters of rice-prawn systems for different spray drift scenarios and a simple first tier risk assessment based on threshold concentrations derived from single species toxicity tests were used to assess the ecological risk in the form of risk quotients. The PERPEST model was used to refine the ecological risks when the first tier assessment indicated a possible risk. Eleven synthetic insecticides and one fungicide (sulphur) were recorded as part of this investigation. The most commonly reported pesticide was sulphur (used by 29% of the interviewed farmers), followed by thiamethoxam, chlorantraniliprole, and phenthoate (21%). A large portion of the interviewed farmers described negative health symptoms after pesticide applications, including vomiting (51%), headache (18%) and eye irritation (12%). The results of the first tier risk assessment indicated that chlorpyrifos, cypermethrin, alpha-cypermethrin, and malathion may pose a high to moderate acute and chronic risks for invertebrates and fish in all evaluated spray drift scenarios. The higher tier assessment using the PERPEST model confirmed the high risk of cypermethrin, alpha-cypermethrin, and chlorpyrifos for insects and macro- and micro-crustaceans thus indicating that these pesticides may have severe adverse consequences for the prawn

  17. Risk assessment of pesticides used in rice-prawn concurrent systems in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Sumon, Kizar Ahmed; Rico, Andreu; Ter Horst, Mechteld M S; Van den Brink, Paul J; Haque, Mohammad Mahfujul; Rashid, Harunur

    2016-10-15

    The objectives of the current study were to determine the occupational health hazards posed by the application of pesticides in rice-prawn concurrent systems of south-west Bangladesh and to assess their potential risks for the aquatic ecosystems that support the culture of freshwater prawns (Macrobrachium rosenbergii). Information on pesticide use in rice-prawn farming was collected through structured interviews with 38 farm owners held between January and May of 2012. The risks of the pesticide use to human health were assessed through structured interviews. The TOXSWA model was used to calculate pesticide exposure (peak and time-weighted average concentrations) in surface waters of rice-prawn systems for different spray drift scenarios and a simple first tier risk assessment based on threshold concentrations derived from single species toxicity tests were used to assess the ecological risk in the form of risk quotients. The PERPEST model was used to refine the ecological risks when the first tier assessment indicated a possible risk. Eleven synthetic insecticides and one fungicide (sulphur) were recorded as part of this investigation. The most commonly reported pesticide was sulphur (used by 29% of the interviewed farmers), followed by thiamethoxam, chlorantraniliprole, and phenthoate (21%). A large portion of the interviewed farmers described negative health symptoms after pesticide applications, including vomiting (51%), headache (18%) and eye irritation (12%). The results of the first tier risk assessment indicated that chlorpyrifos, cypermethrin, alpha-cypermethrin, and malathion may pose a high to moderate acute and chronic risks for invertebrates and fish in all evaluated spray drift scenarios. The higher tier assessment using the PERPEST model confirmed the high risk of cypermethrin, alpha-cypermethrin, and chlorpyrifos for insects and macro- and micro-crustaceans thus indicating that these pesticides may have severe adverse consequences for the prawn

  18. How do dental students determine patients' caries risk level using the Caries Management By Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) system?

    PubMed

    Doméjean, Sophie; Léger, Stéphanie; Rechmann, Peter; White, Joel M; Featherstone, John D B

    2015-03-01

    Research has demonstrated the validation of specific caries risk assessment (CRA) systems, but little is known about how dental practitioners assign a caries risk level to their patients. The aim of this study was to explore dental students' decision making in caries risk assignment when using the Caries Management By Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) system. Multiple correspondence analysis and chi-squared automated interaction detector analysis were performed on data collected retrospectively for a period of six years (2003-09) at the University of California, San Francisco predoctoral dental clinic. The study population consisted of 12,952 patients from six years of age through adult who received a baseline CRA during the period, were new to CAMBRA, and had not received any prior CAMBRA recommendations. The results showed variation in decision making and risk level assignment, illustrated by the range of percentages for the three scores (low, moderate, and high/extreme caries risk) when CRA was assigned for the first time. For those first-time CRAs, decision making was mainly based on four factors: cavities or caries lesions into dentin on radiograph, restorations during the last three years due to caries, visible heavy plaque, and interproximal lesions into enamel (by radiographs). This study's findings provide important data regarding one group of CAMBRA users and thus contribute to the development of knowledge about the implementation of caries risk assessment in contemporary dental practice. PMID:25729021

  19. An Early Warning System for Loan Risk Assessment Based on Rare Event Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Hong; Qiu, Yue; Wu, Yueqin

    System simulation is one of important tool for risk assessment. In this paper, a new method is presented to deal with credit risk assessment problems for commercial banks based on rare event simulation. The failure probability of repaying loans of listed company is taken as the criterion to measure the level of credit risk. The rare-event concept is adopted to construct the model of credit risk identification in commercial banks, and cross-entropy scheme is designed to implement the rare event simulation, based on which the loss probability can be assessed. Numerical experiments have shown that the method has a strong capability to identify the credit risk for commercial banks and offers a good tool for early warning.

  20. Systems Biology and Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology has increased in the past decade largely as a consequence of the human genome project and technological advances in genomics and proteomics. Systems approaches have been used in the medical & pharmaceutical realm for diagnostic purposes and targ...

  1. System Quality Risk Assessment: Applications and Lessons Learned

    SciTech Connect

    Gelston, Gariann M.; Smith, Michael A.; Schwartz, Deborah S.

    2006-12-05

    News Releases Court Audits When does research become a verifiable product? When do the tools used to solve a problem become part of the research "system" and thus fall under the quality standard requirements? What should/is the system be used for? Research Typically Starts Small

  2. System reliability and risk assessment task goals and status

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1991-05-01

    The major focus for continued development of the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) codes is in support of system testing and certification of advanced propulsion systems. Propulsion system testing has evolved over the years from tests designed to show success, to tests designed to reveal reliability issues before service use. Such test conditions as performance envelope corners, high rotor imbalance, power dwells, and overspeed tests are designed to shake out problems that can be associated with low and high cycle fatigue, creep, and stress rupture, bearing durability, and the like. Subsystem testing supports system certification by standing as an early evaluation of the same durability and reliability concerns as for the entire system. The NESSUS software system is being further developed to support the definition of rigorous subsystem and system test definition and reliability certification. The principal technical issues are outlined which are related to system reliability, including key technology issues such as failure mode synergism, sequential failure mechanisms, and fault tree definition.

  3. Systems Biology and Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology approaches has greatly increased in the past decade largely as a consequence of the human genome project and technological advances in genomics and proteomics. Systems approaches have been used in the medical & pharmaceutical realm for diagnost...

  4. System Risk Assessment and Allocation in Conceptual Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Smith, Natasha L.; Zang, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    As aerospace systems continue to evolve in addressing newer challenges in air and space transportation, there exists a heightened priority for significant improvement in system performance, cost effectiveness, reliability, and safety. Tools, which synthesize multidisciplinary integration, probabilistic analysis, and optimization, are needed to facilitate design decisions allowing trade-offs between cost and reliability. This study investigates tools for probabilistic analysis and probabilistic optimization in the multidisciplinary design of aerospace systems. A probabilistic optimization methodology is demonstrated for the low-fidelity design of a reusable launch vehicle at two levels, a global geometry design and a local tank design. Probabilistic analysis is performed on a high fidelity analysis of a Navy missile system. Furthermore, decoupling strategies are introduced to reduce the computational effort required for multidisciplinary systems with feedback coupling.

  5. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  6. The Application of Integrated Knowledge-based Systems for the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, Karin C.; Ly, Bebe; Webster, Laurie; Verlander, James; Taylor, Gerald R.; Riley, Gary; Culbert, Chris; Holden, Tina; Rudisill, Marianne

    1993-01-01

    One of NASA's goals for long duration space flight is to maintain acceptable levels of crew health, safety, and performance. One way of meeting this goal is through the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN), an integrated network of both human and computer elements. The BRAIN will function as an advisor to flight surgeons by assessing the risk of in-flight biomedical problems and recommending appropriate countermeasures. This paper describes the joint effort among various NASA elements to develop BRAIN and an Infectious Disease Risk Assessment (IDRA) prototype. The implementation of this effort addresses the technological aspects of the following: (1) knowledge acquisition; (2) integration of IDRA components; (3) use of expert systems to automate the biomedical prediction process; (4) development of a user-friendly interface; and (5) integration of the IDRA prototype and Exercise Countermeasures Intelligent System (ExerCISys). Because the C Language, CLIPS (the C Language Integrated Production System), and the X-Window System were portable and easily integrated, they were chosen as the tools for the initial IDRA prototype. The feasibility was tested by developing an IDRA prototype that predicts the individual risk of influenza. The application of knowledge-based systems to risk assessment is of great market value to the medical technology industry.

  7. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  8. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  9. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  10. Extravehicular Activity Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview for Thermal Protection System Repair on the Hubble Space Telescope Servicing Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigler, Mark; Canga, Michael A.; Duncan, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The Shuttle Program initiated an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assess the risks associated with performing a Shuttle Thermal Protection System (TPS) repair during the Space Transportation System (STS)-125 Hubble repair mission as part of risk trades between TPS repair and crew rescue.

  11. Fuzzy-probabilistic multi agent system for breast cancer risk assessment and insurance premium assignment.

    PubMed

    Tatari, Farzaneh; Akbarzadeh-T, Mohammad-R; Sabahi, Ahmad

    2012-12-01

    In this paper, we present an agent-based system for distributed risk assessment of breast cancer development employing fuzzy and probabilistic computing. The proposed fuzzy multi agent system consists of multiple fuzzy agents that benefit from fuzzy set theory to demonstrate their soft information (linguistic information). Fuzzy risk assessment is quantified by two linguistic variables of high and low. Through fuzzy computations, the multi agent system computes the fuzzy probabilities of breast cancer development based on various risk factors. By such ranking of high risk and low risk fuzzy probabilities, the multi agent system (MAS) decides whether the risk of breast cancer development is high or low. This information is then fed into an insurance premium adjuster in order to provide preventive decision making as well as to make appropriate adjustment of insurance premium and risk. This final step of insurance analysis also provides a numeric measure to demonstrate the utility of the approach. Furthermore, actual data are gathered from two hospitals in Mashhad during 1 year. The results are then compared with a fuzzy distributed approach. PMID:22692028

  12. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  13. Industrial Control Systems/SCADA systems risk assessment in the energy sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falodun, Babatunde

    The energy sector is one of the most critical components of our national infrastructure. It not only provides the electrical power and petroleum required to run day-to-day operations and mechanisms in society, it's also an important element that directly impacts the economy with regard to growth and stability. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) /Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems (SCADA) are computerized mechanisms, they are both software and hardware that are used to control real time processes and operations in power plants and oil production facilities. A significant attack on these control systems that leads to widespread disruption of energy could result in catastrophic consequences for any major city and even the nation. This research paper explores cyber threats and vulnerabilities faced by ICS/SCADA systems in the energy sector and also highlights possible outcomes of a successful breach. Furthermore, the research underscores mitigation strategies that could be used to prevent and respond to an attack. Keywords: Cybersecurity, SCADA, Cyber Attacks, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Risk Assessment, Dr. Albert Orbinati.

  14. Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System for Assessing Doses and Health Risks from Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides.

    1998-11-10

    Version: 00 CRRIS consists of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may be used alone for various assessment applications. Because of its modular structure, CRRIS allows assessments to be tailored to the user's needs. Radionuclides are handled by CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both themore » released nuclides and decay products that build up during environmental transport. Atmospheric dispersion calculations are performed by the ANEMOS computer code for distances less than 100 km and by the RETADD-II computer code for regional-scale distances. Both codes estimate annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates by location. SUMIT will translate and scale multiple ANEMOS runs onto a master grid. TERRA reads radionuclide air concentrations and deposition rates to estimate concentrations of radionuclides in food and surface soil. Radiologic decay and ingrowth, soil leaching, and transport through the food chain are included in the calculations. MLSOIL computes an effective radionuclide ground-surface concentration to be used in computing external health effects. The five-layer model of radionuclide transport through soil in MLSOIL provides an alternative to the single-layer model used in TERRA. DFSOIL computes dose factors used in MLSOIL to compute doses from the five soil layers and from the ground surface. ANDROS reads environmental concentrations of radionuclides computed by the other CRRIS codes and produces tables of doses and risks to individuals or populations from atmospheric releases of radionuclides.« less

  15. Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System for Assessing Doses and Health Risks from Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides.

    SciTech Connect

    RAINE, III, DUDLEY A.

    1998-11-10

    Version: 00 CRRIS consists of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may be used alone for various assessment applications. Because of its modular structure, CRRIS allows assessments to be tailored to the user's needs. Radionuclides are handled by CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both the released nuclides and decay products that build up during environmental transport. Atmospheric dispersion calculations are performed by the ANEMOS computer code for distances less than 100 km and by the RETADD-II computer code for regional-scale distances. Both codes estimate annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates by location. SUMIT will translate and scale multiple ANEMOS runs onto a master grid. TERRA reads radionuclide air concentrations and deposition rates to estimate concentrations of radionuclides in food and surface soil. Radiologic decay and ingrowth, soil leaching, and transport through the food chain are included in the calculations. MLSOIL computes an effective radionuclide ground-surface concentration to be used in computing external health effects. The five-layer model of radionuclide transport through soil in MLSOIL provides an alternative to the single-layer model used in TERRA. DFSOIL computes dose factors used in MLSOIL to compute doses from the five soil layers and from the ground surface. ANDROS reads environmental concentrations of radionuclides computed by the other CRRIS codes and produces tables of doses and risks to individuals or populations from atmospheric releases of radionuclides.

  16. Monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in irrigation systems in Debra Zeit, Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Teklu, Berhan M; Adriaanse, Paulien I; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2016-10-01

    Since Ethiopia is going through a rapid transformation of its agricultural sector, we assessed the human health and environmental risks due to the past use of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) as well as the risks of the current pesticide use by farmers. A monitoring programme and risk assessment was carried out for the Wedecha-Belbela irrigation system in the Debra Zeit area. The Wedecha and Belbela rivers and adjacent temporary ponds were sampled and examined for the presence of OCPs between August and October 2014, while data on the current pesticide use by small- and large-scale farmers was collected by interviews. The usage patterns were evaluated for risks of using the river or temporary ponds as source of drinking water and for risks for the aquatic ecosystems in the river and ponds with the aid of the PRIMET_Registration_Ethiopa_1.1 model. The samples were collected in five sampling periods, and results indicate that most of the 18 target OCPs were not detected above the detection limit, while g-chlordane may pose chronic risks when surface water is used as drinking water. Endosulfan and heptachlor pose risks to aquatic organisms at second-tier level, while for heptachlor-epoxide B, g-chlordane and b-BHC only risks could be determined at the first tier due to a lack of data. For all nine pesticides used by small-scale farmers the calculated acute risks to humans were low. Second tier risk assessment for the aquatic ecosystem indicated that lambda-cyhalothrin, endosulfan, profenofos, and diazinon may pose high risks.

  17. Monitoring and risk assessment of pesticides in irrigation systems in Debra Zeit, Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Teklu, Berhan M; Adriaanse, Paulien I; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2016-10-01

    Since Ethiopia is going through a rapid transformation of its agricultural sector, we assessed the human health and environmental risks due to the past use of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) as well as the risks of the current pesticide use by farmers. A monitoring programme and risk assessment was carried out for the Wedecha-Belbela irrigation system in the Debra Zeit area. The Wedecha and Belbela rivers and adjacent temporary ponds were sampled and examined for the presence of OCPs between August and October 2014, while data on the current pesticide use by small- and large-scale farmers was collected by interviews. The usage patterns were evaluated for risks of using the river or temporary ponds as source of drinking water and for risks for the aquatic ecosystems in the river and ponds with the aid of the PRIMET_Registration_Ethiopa_1.1 model. The samples were collected in five sampling periods, and results indicate that most of the 18 target OCPs were not detected above the detection limit, while g-chlordane may pose chronic risks when surface water is used as drinking water. Endosulfan and heptachlor pose risks to aquatic organisms at second-tier level, while for heptachlor-epoxide B, g-chlordane and b-BHC only risks could be determined at the first tier due to a lack of data. For all nine pesticides used by small-scale farmers the calculated acute risks to humans were low. Second tier risk assessment for the aquatic ecosystem indicated that lambda-cyhalothrin, endosulfan, profenofos, and diazinon may pose high risks. PMID:27441987

  18. A Model-based Framework for Risk Assessment in Human-Computer Controlled Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hatanaka, Iwao

    2000-01-01

    The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems. This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions. Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

  19. Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, James T.

    2003-01-01

    Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.

  20. Hazard identification and risk assessment for biologics targeting the immune system.

    PubMed

    Weir, Andrea B

    2008-01-01

    Biologic pharmaceuticals include a variety of products, such as monoclonal antibodies, fusion proteins and cytokines. Products in those classes include immunomodulatory biologics, which are intended to enhance or diminish the activity of the immune system. Immunomodulatory biologics have been approved by the U.S. FDA for a variety of indications, including cancer and inflammatory conditions. Prior to gaining approval for marketing, sponsoring companies for all types of products must demonstrate a product's safety in toxicology studies conducted in animals and show safety and efficacy in clinical trials conducted in patients. The overall goal of toxicology studies, which applies to immunomodulatory and other product types, is to identify the hazards that products pose to humans. Because biologics are generally highly selective for specific targets (receptors/epitopes), conducting toxicology studies in animal models with the target is essential. Such animals are referred to as pharmacologically relevant. Endpoints routinely included in toxicology studies, such as hematology, organ weight and histopathology, can be used to assess the effect of a product on the structure of the immune system. Additionally, specialized endpoints, such as immunophenotyping and immune function tests, can be used to define effects of immunomodulatory products on the immune system. Following hazard identification, risks posed to patients are assessed and managed. Risks can be managed through clinical trial design and risk communication, a practice that applies to immunomodulatory and other product types. Examples of risk management in clinical trial design include establishing a safe starting dose, defining the appropriate patient population and establishing appropriate patient monitoring. Risk communication starts during clinical trials and continues after product approval. A combination of hazard identification, risk assessment and risk management allows for drug development to proceed

  1. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  2. The application of integrated knowledge-based systems for the Biomedical Risk Assessment Intelligent Network (BRAIN)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, Karin C.; Ly, Bebe; Webster, Laurie; Verlander, James; Taylor, Gerald R.; Riley, Gary; Culbert, Chris

    1992-01-01

    One of NASA's goals for long duration space flight is to maintain acceptable levels of crew health, safety, and performance. One way of meeting this goal is through BRAIN, an integrated network of both human and computer elements. BRAIN will function as an advisor to mission managers by assessing the risk of inflight biomedical problems and recommending appropriate countermeasures. Described here is a joint effort among various NASA elements to develop BRAIN and the Infectious Disease Risk Assessment (IDRA) prototype. The implementation of this effort addresses the technological aspects of knowledge acquisition, integration of IDRA components, the use of expert systems to automate the biomedical prediction process, development of a user friendly interface, and integration of IDRA and ExerCISys systems. Because C language, CLIPS and the X-Window System are portable and easily integrated, they were chosen ss the tools for the initial IDRA prototype.

  3. Weed Risk Assessment for Aquatic Plants: Modification of a New Zealand System for the United States

    PubMed Central

    Gordon, Doria R.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Jerde, Christopher L.; Chadderton, W. Lindsay; Keller, Reuben P.; Champion, Paul D.

    2012-01-01

    We tested the accuracy of an invasive aquatic plant risk assessment system in the United States that we modified from a system originally developed by New Zealand’s Biosecurity Program. The US system is comprised of 38 questions that address biological, historical, and environmental tolerance traits. Values associated with each response are summed to produce a total score for each species that indicates its risk of invasion. To calibrate and test this risk assessment, we identified 39 aquatic plant species that are major invaders in the continental US, 31 species that have naturalized but have no documented impacts (minor invaders), and 60 that have been introduced but have not established. These species represent 55 families and span all aquatic plant growth forms. We found sufficient information to assess all but three of these species. When the results are compared to the known invasiveness of the species, major invaders are distinguished from minor and non-invaders with 91% accuracy. Using this approach, the US aquatic weed risk assessment correctly identifies major invaders 85%, and non-invaders 98%, of the time. Model validation using an additional 10 non-invaders and 10 invaders resulted in 100% accuracy for the former, and 80% accuracy for the latter group. Accuracy was further improved to an average of 91% for all groups when the 17% of species with scores of 31–39 required further evaluation prior to risk classification. The high accuracy with which we can distinguish non-invaders from harmful invaders suggests that this tool provides a feasible, pro-active system for pre-import screening of aquatic plants in the US, and may have additional utility for prioritizing management efforts of established species. PMID:22808088

  4. Risk Assessment and Control through Countermeasure System Iplementation for Long-term Crew Exposure to Microgravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gernand, Jeremy M.

    2004-01-01

    Experience with the International Space Station (ISS) program demonstrates the degree to which engineering design and operational solutions must protect crewmembers from health risks due to long-term exposure to the microgravity environment. Risks to safety and health due to degradation in the microgravity environment include crew inability to complete emergency or nominal activities, increased risk of injury, and inability to complete safe return to the ground due to reduced strength or embrittled bones. These risks without controls slowly increase in probability for the length of the mission and become more significant for increasing mission durations. Countermeasures to microgravity include hardware systems that place a crewmember s body under elevated stress to produce an effect similar to daily exposure to gravity. The ISS countermeasure system is predominately composed of customized exercise machines. Historical treatment of microgravity countermeasure systems as medical research experiments unintentionally reduced the foreseen importance and therefore the capability of the systems to function in a long-term operational role. Long-term hazardous effects and steadily increasing operational risks due to non-functional countermeasure equipment require a more rigorous design approach and incorporation of redundancy into seemingly non- mission-critical hardware systems. Variations in the rate of health degradation and responsiveness to countermeasures among the crew population drastically increase the challenge for design requirements development and verification of the appropriate risk control strategy. The long-term nature of the hazards and severe limits on logistical re-supply mass, volume and frequency complicates assessment of hardware availability and verification of an adequate maintenance and sparing plan. Design achievement of medically defined performance requirements by microgravity countermeasure systems and incorporation of adequate failure tolerance

  5. Landslide hazard and risk assessment for Ambon city using landslide inventory and geographic information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souisa, Matheus; Hendrajaya, Lilik; Handayani, Gunawan

    2016-08-01

    Ambon Island is a volcanic islands arc and included in the territory of the archipelago of small islands are associated with subduction zones that have a degree of high vulnerability to natural disasters, such as erosion and landslides on the slopes of certain conditions. Landslides that occur various in the city of Ambon, usually occurs during the rainy season so that the impacts that occur not only occurs on site but also off site with amount of large sedimentation. This paper presents the application of digital image analysis techniques and tools Geographic Information Systems to describe the degree of landslide hazard and risk areas in locations Ambon City, Moluccas. The cause of the landslide is analyzed through various thematic layers attribute data for the study area. Landslide hazard zonation assessment is done by using historical data, while the landslide risk analysis is done by using the results of landslide hazard assessment and socioeconomic factors by using geospatial models. The risk assessment of landslides can be used to estimate the risk to the population, property and infrastructure. The study results in the form of a map of landslide hazard and the risk of landslides that act to support urban spatial planning based on disaster mitigation.

  6. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  7. Introduction to CRRIS: a computerized radiological risk investigation system for assessing atmospheric releases of radionuclides

    SciTech Connect

    Baes, C.F. III; Miller, C.W.; Kocher, D.C.; Sjoreen, A.L.; Murphy, B.D.

    1985-08-01

    The CRRIS is a Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System consisting of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may also be used alone for various assessment applications. Radionuclides are handled by the CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both the released nuclides and decay products that grow in during environmental transport. The CRRIS is not designed to simulate short-term effects. 51 refs.

  8. Ecological Risk Assessment of EDTA-Assisted Phytoremediation of Cd Under Different Cultivation Systems.

    PubMed

    Luo, Jie; Qi, Shihua; Gu, X W Sophie; Hou, Tao; Lin, Lihong

    2016-02-01

    A long-term field experiment was designed to assess remediation efficiency and ecological risk of phytoremediation of Cd under different cultivation systems with or without ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid (EDTA). EDTA can significantly improve the phytoremediation effectiveness of a historically polluted e-waste dismantling site through enhancing Cd uptake by plants in all cultivation systems along with higher ecological risks to different receptors especially in the presence of Cicer arietinum (chickpea). Moisture content at each layer of soil profile under Eucalyptus globules L. cultivated sites was consistently lower than under chickpea monoculture as a result of E. globules' high water use efficiency. Besides low soil moisture, E. globules can intercept more Cd-rich leachate than chickpea regardless of the presence of EDTA. E. globules could be used for Cd phytoremediation as they can take full advantage of EDTA and decrease ecological risk caused by the chelator.

  9. Hazard Ranking System and toxicological risk assessment models yield different results

    SciTech Connect

    Dehghani, T.; Sells, G. . CER-CLA Site Assessment Div.)

    1993-09-01

    A major goal of the Superfund Site Assessment program is identifying hazardous waste sites that pose unacceptable risks to human health and the environment. To accomplish this, EPA developed the Hazard Ranking System (HRS), a mathematical model used to assess the relative risks associated with actual or potential releases of hazardous wastes from a site. HRS is a scoring system based on factors grouped into three categories--likelihood of release, waste characteristics and targets. Values for the factor categories are multiplied, then normalized to 100 points to obtain a pathway score. Four pathways--groundwater, surface water, air migration and soil exposure--are evaluated and scored. The final HRS score is obtained by combining pathway scores using a root-mean-square method. HRS is intended to be a screening tool for measuring relative, rather than absolute, risk. The Superfund site assessment program usually requires at least two studies of a potential hazardous waste site before it is proposed for listing on the NPL. The initial study, or preliminary assessment (PA), is a limited-scope evaluation based on available historical information and data that can be gathered readily during a site reconnaissance.

  10. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:19009454

  11. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  12. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  13. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

  14. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  15. Risk assessment of a fusion-reactor fuel-processing system

    SciTech Connect

    Bruske, S.Z.; Holland, D.F.

    1983-07-01

    The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology provides a means to systematically examine the potential for accidents that may result in a release of hazardous materials. This report presents the PRA for a typical fusion reactor fuel processing system. The system used in the analysis is based on the Tritium Systems Test Assembly, which is being operated at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The results of the evaluation are presented in a probability-consequence plot that describes the probability of various accidental tritium release magnitudes.

  16. Identifying youth at risk for psychosis using the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Elizabeth; Kline, Emily; Reeves, Gloria; Pitts, Steven C; Schiffman, Jason

    2013-12-01

    Identification of youth at risk for or with early psychosis has become the focus of many research and clinical initiatives, as early intervention may be linked to better long-term outcomes. Efforts to facilitate identification have led to the development of several self-report instruments that intend to quickly assess "attenuated" psychosis, potentially screening people for further evaluation. The widely used Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2) includes the atypicality scale, a scale that may be useful for risk screening as it is designed to recognize emerging symptoms of psychosis. The current study aimed to evaluate the utility of the BASC-2 for identifying youth at high clinical risk or with early psychosis within a sample of 70 help-seeking participants aged 12-22. Atypicality scores were compared to risk status (low-risk, high-risk or early psychosis) as determined by the clinician-administered Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS). The relative accuracy of the atypicality scale was evaluated against three self-report screeners specifically designed to identify this population. Results indicate that the BASC-2 atypicality scale may be a useful tool for identifying youth in early stages of psychosis. Moreover, the atypicality scale is comparable if not superior to other specialized risk screening instruments in terms of predictive ability. Given the widespread use of the BASC-2 across educational and mental health settings, evidence for convergent validity between the BASC-2 atypicality scale and SIPS diagnoses has the potential to make screening available to a greater population and facilitate earlier detection and intervention. PMID:24119463

  17. Assessment of occupational safety risks in Floridian solid waste systems using Bayesian analysis.

    PubMed

    Bastani, Mehrad; Celik, Nurcin

    2015-10-01

    Safety risks embedded within solid waste management systems continue to be a significant issue and are prevalent at every step in the solid waste management process. To recognise and address these occupational hazards, it is necessary to discover the potential safety concerns that cause them, as well as their direct and/or indirect impacts on the different types of solid waste workers. In this research, our goal is to statistically assess occupational safety risks to solid waste workers in the state of Florida. Here, we first review the related standard industrial codes to major solid waste management methods including recycling, incineration, landfilling, and composting. Then, a quantitative assessment of major risks is conducted based on the data collected using a Bayesian data analysis and predictive methods. The risks estimated in this study for the period of 2005-2012 are then compared with historical statistics (1993-1997) from previous assessment studies. The results have shown that the injury rates among refuse collectors in both musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have decreased from 88 and 15 to 16 and three injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. However, a contrasting trend is observed for the injury rates among recycling workers, for whom musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have increased from 13 and four injuries to 14 and six injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. Lastly, a linear regression model has been proposed to identify major elements of the high number of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries.

  18. A decision support system for drinking water production integrating health risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-07-01

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

  19. A decision support system for drinking water production integrating health risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-07-18

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation.

  20. A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

  1. Use Of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) In Expert Systems To Advise Nuclear Plant Operators And Managers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uhrig, Robert E.

    1988-03-01

    The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. f2 Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been codified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)3 of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. Nuclear power plants have many redundant systems and can continue to operate when one or more of these systems is disabled or removed from service for maintenance or testing. PRAs provide a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants with components or systems out of service. While the choice of the "source term" and methodology in a PRA may influence the absolute probability and consequences of a core melt, the ratio of two PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration to the other. PRISIM,4 a personal computer program to calculate the ratio of core melt probabilities described above (based on previously performed PRAs), has been developed under the sponsorship of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). When one or several components are removed from service, PRISM then calculates the ratio of the core melt probabilities. The inference engine of the expert system then uses this ratio and a constant risk criterion,5 along with information from its knowledge base (which includes information from the PRA), to advise plant personnel as to what action, if any, should be taken.

  2. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  3. Application of toxicogenomics in hepatic systems toxicology for risk assessment: Acetaminophen as a case study

    SciTech Connect

    Kienhuis, Anne S.; Bessems, Jos G.M.; Pennings, Jeroen L.A.; Driessen, Marja; Delft, Joost H.M. van

    2011-01-15

    Hepatic systems toxicology is the integrative analysis of toxicogenomic technologies, e.g., transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, in combination with traditional toxicology measures to improve the understanding of mechanisms of hepatotoxic action. Hepatic toxicology studies that have employed toxicogenomic technologies to date have already provided a proof of principle for the value of hepatic systems toxicology in hazard identification. In the present review, acetaminophen is used as a model compound to discuss the application of toxicogenomics in hepatic systems toxicology for its potential role in the risk assessment process, to progress from hazard identification towards hazard characterization. The toxicogenomics-based parallelogram is used to identify current achievements and limitations of acetaminophen toxicogenomic in vivo and in vitro studies for in vitro-to-in vivo and interspecies comparisons, with the ultimate aim to extrapolate animal studies to humans in vivo. This article provides a model for comparison of more species and more in vitro models enhancing the robustness of common toxicogenomic responses and their relevance to human risk assessment. To progress to quantitative dose-response analysis needed for hazard characterization, in hepatic systems toxicology studies, generation of toxicogenomic data of multiple doses/concentrations and time points is required. Newly developed bioinformatics tools for quantitative analysis of toxicogenomic data can aid in the elucidation of dose-responsive effects. The challenge herein is to assess which toxicogenomic responses are relevant for induction of the apical effect and whether perturbations are sufficient for the induction of downstream events, eventually causing toxicity.

  4. Ecological risk assessment of aerial insectivores of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system

    SciTech Connect

    Baron, L.A.; Sample, B.E.

    1995-12-31

    Risks to aerial insectivores (species that consume flying insects; rough-winged swallows, little brown bats, and endangered gray bats) were assessed for the CERCLA remedial investigation of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system. Adult mayflies and sediment were collected from four locations and analyzed for contaminants. Sediment-to-mayfly contaminant transfer factors were generated from these data and used to estimate contaminant concentrations in mayflies from thirteen additional locations. Contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) were identified by comparing exposure estimates, generated using point estimates of parameter values, to NOAELS. COPCs included mercury, arsenic, and PCBs. Exposure to COPCs was re-estimated using Monte Carlo simulations. Adverse population effects were assumed likely if > 20% of the estimated exposure distribution was greater than the LOAEL. Exposure of swallows to mercury was a significant risk at two locations. Exposure of bats to mercury was a significant risk at only one location. While consideration of movement and foraging territory did not reduce estimated risks to swallows, when exposures for gray and little brown bats were re-estimated, population-level risks from mercury were no longer considered likely. As an endangered species however, protection is extended to individual gray bats. While less than 20% of the mercury exposure distribution for gray bats was > LOAEL, > 99% of the distribution was >NOAEL. Therefore, adverse effects may occur among maximally exposed individual gray bats. Available data indicate that contaminants in Poplar Creek are likely to present a risk to the swallow population, do not present a risk to the little brown bat population, and may present a risk to individual gray bats.

  5. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  6. A framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment of systemic risks

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, David J

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods of risk assessment have provided good service in support of policy, mainly in relation to standard setting and regulation of hazardous chemicals or practices. In recent years, however, it has become apparent that many of the risks facing society are systemic in nature – complex risks, set within wider social, economic and environmental contexts. Reflecting this, policy-making too has become more wide-ranging in scope, more collaborative and more precautionary in approach. In order to inform such policies, more integrated methods of assessment are needed. Based on work undertaken in two large EU-funded projects (INTARESE and HEIMTSA), this paper reviews the range of approaches to assessment now in used, proposes a framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment (both as a basis for bringing together and choosing between different methods of assessment, and extending these to more complex problems), and discusses some of the challenges involved in conducting integrated assessments to support policy. Integrated environmental health impact assessment is defined as a means of assessing health-related problems deriving from the environment, and health-related impacts of policies and other interventions that affect the environment, in ways that take account of the complexities, interdependencies and uncertainties of the real world. As such, it depends heavily on how issues are selected and framed, and implies the involvement of stakeholders both in issue-framing and design of the assessment, and to help interpret and evaluate the results. It is also a comparative process, which involves evaluating and comparing different scenarios. It consequently requires the ability to model the way in which the influences of exogenous factors, such as policies or other interventions, feed through the environment to affect health. Major challenges thus arise. Chief amongst these are the difficulties in ensuring effective stakeholder participation

  7. Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

    2014-12-01

    The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern

  8. A systems approach to risk assessment: Application to methylmercury from coal combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Saroff, L.; Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) asked Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the health risks associated with Hg from coal-fired power plants. The objective of the assessment is to estimate the incremental health risks that might ensue from a typical coal-fired power plant, together with their uncertainties, taking into account existing background levels and the actual adverse health effects that have previously been associated with exposure to various Hg species. Mercury has a long history of association with adverse neurological effects at high exposure levels. The most important current exposure pathway has been found to be ingestion of fish containing methylmercury (MeHg), which is the end product of bioconcentration moving up the aquatic food chain. Mercury can enter natural waters from either industrial discharges or from atmospheric deposition of various inorganic Ho. compounds. Because of the worldwide background and the existence of local emissions sources, Hg deposition must be considered on local, regional and global scales. The regulatory technical challenge presented by methy1mercury is to protect public health without foreclosing an appreciable a portion of the food supply or impacting on the lifestyles of North American native populations. This paper presents an abbreviated account of the DOE/BNL risk assessment, as viewed from a systems perspective. We review the structure of the model, the sources of data used, the assumptions that were made, and the interpretation of the findings. Since publication of the first risk assessment report, we have refined our estimates of local atmospheric dispersion and deposition and {open_quotes}calibrated{close_quotes} the pharmacokinetic portion of the model against observations.

  9. [Risk assessment of bluetongue disease incursion into Germany using geographic information system (GIS)].

    PubMed

    Koslowsky, Sylvia; Staubach, Christoph; Kramer, Mathias; Wieler, Lothar H

    2004-01-01

    Using a geographic information system (GIS), by analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of cattle density and the risk factors temperature, altitude and rainfall, we defined geographical habitats enabling optimal development and competence of Culicoides spp. to transmit Bluetongue-Virus (BTV): Risk zones (low, high, highest risk) were identified mainly in Baden-Württemberg, Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz if persistently infected ruminants are imported into these zones in summer (June to August mainly), based on the current climatic conditions, BTD outbreaks are considered a real possibility. Overwintering of the virus seems unlikely. However, global warming will lead to a steady increase of the size of the risk zones. In addition, the possibility of primary outbreaks increases. The reason for this is not only the expected northern shift of Culicoides imicola, but in addition an increasing vector competence of domestic Culicoides species. We therefore recommend the storage of vaccines as well as conducting ecological studies analysing the presence of Culicoides vectors. Using the data from these studies, it will be possible to produce updated quantitative risk assessment via GIS.

  10. Automated In-Home Fall Risk Assessment and Detection Sensor System for Elders

    PubMed Central

    Rantz, Marilyn; Skubic, Marjorie; Abbott, Carmen; Galambos, Colleen; Popescu, Mihail; Keller, James; Stone, Erik; Back, Jessie; Miller, Steven J.; Petroski, Gregory F.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: Falls are a major problem for the elderly people leading to injury, disability, and even death. An unobtrusive, in-home sensor system that continuously monitors older adults for fall risk and detects falls could revolutionize fall prevention and care. Design and Methods: A fall risk and detection system was developed and installed in the apartments of 19 older adults at a senior living facility. The system includes pulse-Doppler radar, a Microsoft Kinect, and 2 web cameras. To collect data for comparison with sensor data and for algorithm development, stunt actors performed falls in participants’ apartments each month for 2 years and participants completed fall risk assessments (FRAs) using clinically valid, standardized instruments. The FRAs were scored by clinicians and recorded by the sensing modalities. Participants’ gait parameters were measured as they walked on a GAITRite mat. These data were used as ground truth, objective data to use in algorithm development and to compare with radar and Kinect generated variables. Results: All FRAs are highly correlated (p < .01) with the Kinect gait velocity and Kinect stride length. Radar velocity is correlated (p < .05) to all the FRAs and highly correlated (p < .01) to most. Real-time alerts of actual falls are being sent to clinicians providing faster responses to urgent situations. Implications: The in-home FRA and detection system has the potential to help older adults remain independent, maintain functional ability, and live at home longer. PMID:26055784

  11. Risk assessment for Industrial Control Systems quantifying availability using mean failure cost (MFC)

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Chen, Qian; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T.

    2015-09-23

    Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are commonly used in industries such as oil and natural gas, transportation, electric, water and wastewater, chemical, pharmaceutical, pulp and paper, food and beverage, as well as discrete manufacturing (e.g., automotive, aerospace, and durable goods.) SCADA systems are generally used to control dispersed assets using centralized data acquisition and supervisory control. Originally, ICS implementations were susceptible primarily to local threats because most of their components were located in physically secure areas (i.e., ICS components were not connected to IT networks or systems). The trend toward integrating ICS systems with IT networks (e.g., efficiency and the Internetmore » of Things) provides significantly less isolation for ICS from the outside world thus creating greater risk due to external threats. Albeit, the availability of ICS/SCADA systems is critical to assuring safety, security and profitability. Such systems form the backbone of our national cyber-physical infrastructure. We extend the concept of mean failure cost (MFC) to address quantifying availability to harmonize well with ICS security risk assessment. This new measure is based on the classic formulation of Availability combined with Mean Failure Cost (MFC). The metric offers a computational basis to estimate the availability of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security violations or breakdowns (e.g., deliberate malicious failures).« less

  12. Risk assessment for Industrial Control Systems quantifying availability using mean failure cost (MFC)

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Qian; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T.

    2015-09-23

    Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are commonly used in industries such as oil and natural gas, transportation, electric, water and wastewater, chemical, pharmaceutical, pulp and paper, food and beverage, as well as discrete manufacturing (e.g., automotive, aerospace, and durable goods.) SCADA systems are generally used to control dispersed assets using centralized data acquisition and supervisory control. Originally, ICS implementations were susceptible primarily to local threats because most of their components were located in physically secure areas (i.e., ICS components were not connected to IT networks or systems). The trend toward integrating ICS systems with IT networks (e.g., efficiency and the Internet of Things) provides significantly less isolation for ICS from the outside world thus creating greater risk due to external threats. Albeit, the availability of ICS/SCADA systems is critical to assuring safety, security and profitability. Such systems form the backbone of our national cyber-physical infrastructure. We extend the concept of mean failure cost (MFC) to address quantifying availability to harmonize well with ICS security risk assessment. This new measure is based on the classic formulation of Availability combined with Mean Failure Cost (MFC). The metric offers a computational basis to estimate the availability of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security violations or breakdowns (e.g., deliberate malicious failures).

  13. Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the Next Generation of <span class=Risk Assessment Final report" vspace = "5" hspace="5" align="right" border="1" /> This final report, "Next Generation Risk Assessment: Recent Advances in Molec...

  14. Occurrence of pharmaceuticals in a water supply system and related human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    de Jesus Gaffney, Vanessa; Almeida, Cristina M M; Rodrigues, Alexandre; Ferreira, Elisabete; Benoliel, Maria João; Cardoso, Vitor Vale

    2015-04-01

    A monitoring study of 31 pharmaceuticals along Lisbon's drinking water supply system was implemented, which comprised the analysis of 250 samples including raw water (surface water and groundwater), and drinking water. Of the 31 pharmaceutical compounds, only sixteen were quantified in the analyzed samples, with levels ranging from 0.005 to 46 ng/L in raw water samples and 0.09-46 ng/L in drinking water samples. The human health risk assessment performed showed that appreciable risks to the consumer's health arising from exposure to trace levels of pharmaceuticals in drinking water are extremely unlikely, as RQs values were all below 0.001. Also, pharmaceuticals were selected as indicators to be used as a tool to control the quality of raw water and the treatment efficiency in the drinking water treatment plants.

  15. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  16. Baseline risk assessment of the perched water system at the INEL test reactor area

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, J.W.; Sinton, P.O. ); Jensen, N. ); McCormick, S. )

    1993-01-01

    A baseline health risk assessment (HRA) was prepared to evaluate potential risks to human health and the environment posed by the Perched Water System (PWS) at the Test Reactor Area (TRA). The PWS has been designated Operable Unit 2-12, one of the 13 operable units identified at TRA. During the period from 1962 to 1990, a total of 6770 million gal of water were discharged from the TRA to unlined surface ponds. Wastewater discharged to the surface ponds at TRA percolates downward through the surficial alluvium and the underlying basalt bedrock. A resulting shallow perched water zone has formed at the interface between the surficial sediments and the underlying basalt. Further downward movement of groundwater is again impeded by a low-permeability layer of silt, clay, and sand encountered at a depth of [approximately]150 ft. The deep perched water zone occurs on top of this low-permeability interbed. An evaluation was made as to whether potential risks for the PWS could justify implementing a remedial action. The risk evaluation consisted of two parts, the human health evaluation and the ecological evaluation.

  17. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  18. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  19. Absolute fracture risk assessment using lumbar spine and femoral neck bone density measurements: derivation and validation of a hybrid system.

    PubMed

    Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M

    2011-03-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) computes 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture from multiple risk factors, including femoral neck (FN) T-scores. Lumbar spine (LS) measurements are not currently part of the FRAX formulation but are used widely in clinical practice, and this creates confusion when there is spine-hip discordance. Our objective was to develop a hybrid 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment system in which nonvertebral (NV) fracture risk was assessed from the FN and clinical vertebral (V) fracture risk was assessed from the LS. We identified 37,032 women age 45 years and older undergoing baseline FN and LS dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA; 1990-2005) from a population database that contains all clinical DXA results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Results were linked to longitudinal health service records for physician billings and hospitalizations to identify nontrauma vertebral and nonvertebral fracture codes after bone mineral density (BMD) testing. The population was randomly divided into equal-sized derivation and validation cohorts. Using the derivation cohort, three fracture risk prediction systems were created from Cox proportional hazards models (adjusted for age and multiple FRAX risk factors): FN to predict combined all fractures, FN to predict nonvertebral fractures, and LS to predict vertebral (without nonvertebral) fractures. The hybrid system was the sum of nonvertebral risk from the FN model and vertebral risk from the LS model. The FN and hybrid systems were both strongly predictive of overall fracture risk (p < .001). In the validation cohort, ROC analysis showed marginally better performance of the hybrid system versus the FN system for overall fracture prediction (p = .24) and significantly better performance for vertebral fracture prediction (p < .001). In a discordance subgroup with FN and LS T-score differences greater than 1 SD, there was a significant

  20. Weighted Association Rule Mining for Item Groups with Different Properties and Risk Assessment for Networked Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jungja; Ceong, Heetaek; Won, Yonggwan

    In market-basket analysis, weighted association rule (WAR) discovery can mine the rules that include more beneficial information by reflecting item importance for special products. In the point-of-sale database, each transaction is composed of items with similar properties, and item weights are pre-defined and fixed by a factor such as the profit. However, when items are divided into more than one group and the item importance must be measured independently for each group, traditional weighted association rule discovery cannot be used. To solve this problem, we propose a new weighted association rule mining methodology. The items should be first divided into subgroups according to their properties, and the item importance, i.e. item weight, is defined or calculated only with the items included in the subgroup. Then, transaction weight is measured by appropriately summing the item weights from each subgroup, and the weighted support is computed as the fraction of the transaction weights that contains the candidate items relative to the weight of all transactions. As an example, our proposed methodology is applied to assess the vulnerability to threats of computer systems that provide networked services. Our algorithm provides both quantitative risk-level values and qualitative risk rules for the security assessment of networked computer systems using WAR discovery. Also, it can be widely used for new applications with many data sets in which the data items are distinctly separated.

  1. A generalised Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for Real Time Control of urban drainage systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

    2014-07-01

    An innovative and generalised approach to the integrated Real Time Control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy aims to minimise the expected Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii) the expected runoff volume (calculated by radar-based nowcast models) and - most important - (iii) the estimated uncertainty of the runoff forecasts. The inclusion of uncertainty allows for a more confident use of Real Time Control (RTC). Overflow risk is calculated by a flexible function which allows for the prioritisation of the discharge points according to their sensitivity and intended use. DORA was tested on a hypothetical example inspired by the main catchment in the city of Aarhus (Denmark). An analysis of DORA’s performance over a range of events with different return periods, using a simple conceptual model, is presented. Compared to a traditional local control approach, DORA contributed to reduce CSO volumes from the most sensitive points while reducing total CSO volumes discharged from the catchment. Additionally, the results show that the inclusion of forecasts and their uncertainty contributed to further improving the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to the wider usage of global RTC methods in the management of urban drainage networks.

  2. Development of Triad approach based system for ecological risk assessment for contaminated areas of Kyrgyzstan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kydralieva, Kamilia; Uzbekov, Beksultan; Khudaibergenova, Bermet; Terekhova, Vera; Jorobekova, Sharipa

    2014-05-01

    This research is aimed to develop a high-effective system of an ecological risk assessment and risk-based decision making for anthropogenic ecosystems, with particular focus on the soils of the Kyrgyz Republic. The study is focused on the integration of Triad data including chemical, biological and ecotoxicological soil markers to estimate the potential risk from soils of highly anthropized areas impacted by deposition of different pollutants from mining operation. We focus on technogenic areas of Kyrgyzstan, the former uranium-producing province. Triad-based ecological risk assessment for technogenic sites are not currently used in Kyrgyzstan. However, the vitality of such research is self-evident. There are about 50 tailing dumps and more than 80 tips of radioactive waste which are formed as a result of uranium and complex ores (mercury, antimony, lead, cadmium and etc) mining around the unfavorable aforementioned places. According to the Mining Wastes' Tailings and Fills Rehabilitation Centre established in 1999 by a special Government's Resolution, one of the most ecologically dangerous uranium tailings resides in Kadzhi-Say. Although uranium processing is no longer practiced in Kadzhi-Say, a large number of open landfills and uranium ore storages still remain abandoned at the vicinity of this settlement. These neglected sites have enormous problems associated with soil erosion known as "technogenic deserts". The upper soil horizons are deprived of humus and vegetation, which favor the formation of low-buffer landscapes in the zones of maximum contamination. As a result, most of these areas are not re-cultivated and remain in critical environmental condition (Bykovchenko, et al., 2005; Tukhvatshin, 2005; Suranova, 2006). Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites will be integrated. The following Triad-based parameters will be employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous

  3. Fuzzy-logic-based network for complex systems risk assessment: application to ship performance analysis.

    PubMed

    Abou, Seraphin C

    2012-03-01

    In this paper, a new interpretation of intuitionistic fuzzy sets in the advanced framework of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is extended to monitor safety-critical systems' performance. Not only is the proposed approach more effective, but it also takes into account the fuzzy rules that deal with imperfect knowledge/information and, therefore, is different from the classical Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, which assumes that the rule (the knowledge) is perfect. We provide an analytical solution to the practical and important problem of the conceptual probabilistic approach for formal ship safety assessment using the fuzzy set theory that involves uncertainties associated with the reliability input data. Thus, the overall safety of the ship engine is investigated as an object of risk analysis using the fuzzy mapping structure, which considers uncertainty and partial truth in the input-output mapping. The proposed method integrates direct evidence of the frame of discernment and is demonstrated through references to examples where fuzzy set models are informative. These simple applications illustrate how to assess the conflict of sensor information fusion for a sufficient cooling power system of vessels under extreme operation conditions. It was found that propulsion engine safety systems are not only a function of many environmental and operation profiles but are also dynamic and complex.

  4. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  5. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  6. APPLICATION OF EXAMS AS THE SURFACE WATER MODULE IN THE HWIR MULTIMEDIA RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multimedia, multipathway risk assessment software has been developed for implementing the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule (HWIR). This regulation is intended to determine whether a waste should be considered hazardous, and confined to Subtitle D facilities, or safely release...

  7. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  8. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  9. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  10. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  11. C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

  12. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  13. A tiered system for assessing the risk of genetically modified plants to non-target organisms.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Jacobs, Erik; Raybould, Alan; Nickson, Thomas E; Sowig, Peter; Willekens, Hilde; Van der Kouwe, Pier; Layton, Raymond; Amijee, Firoz; Fuentes, Angel M; Tencalla, Francesca

    2006-01-01

    Representatives of the developers of modern agricultural biotechnology are proposing a tiered approach for conducting non-target organism risk assessment for genetically modified (GM) plants in Europe. The approach was developed by the Technical Advisory Group of the EuropaBio Plant Biotechnology Unit (http://www.europabio.org/TAG.htm) and complements other international activities to harmonize risk assessment. In the European Union (EU), the principles and methods to be followed in an environmental risk assessment for the placing on the market of GM plants are laid out in Annex II of Directive 2001/18/EC on the deliberate release into the environment of GMOs, Commission Decision 2002/623/EC and Regulation (EC) No. 1829/2003. Additional information is provided in the European Food Safety Authority guidance document of 2004. However, risk assessment for effects to non-target organisms could benefit from further clarification and remains the subject of much discussion in Europe. The industry-wide approach developed by EuropaBio is based on the fundamental steps of risk evaluation, namely hazard and exposure assessment. It follows a structured scheme including assessment planning, product characterization and assessment of hazard/exposure (Tier 0), single high dose and dose response testing (Tier 1), refined hazard characterization and exposure assessment (Tier 2) and further refined risk assessment experiments (Tier 3). An additional tier (Tier 4) was included to reflect the fact that post-market activities such as monitoring are required under Directive 2001/18/EC. The approach is compatible with conditions of commercial release in the EU and around the world.

  14. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  15. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  16. Topographical Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Phil Daling, PNNL

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP senior management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.

  17. Topographical Risk Assessment

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  18. ASTER: An integration of the AQUIRE database and the QSAR system for use in ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Russom, C.L.; Anderson, E.B.; Greenwood, B.E.; Pilli, A.

    1990-01-01

    Ecological risk assessments are used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and other governmental agencies to assist in determining the probability and magnitude of deleterious effects of hazardous chemicals on plants and animals. These assessments are important steps in formulating regulatory decisions. The completion of an ecological risk assessment requires the gathering of ecotoxicological hazard and environmental exposure information. The information is evaluated in the risk characterization section to assist in making the final risk assessment. ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was designed by the USEPA Environmental Research Laboratory-Duluth (ERL-D) to assist regulators in producing risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the AQUIRE (AQUatic toxicity Information Retrieval System) and QSAR (Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships) systems. AQUIRE is a database of aquatic toxicity tests and QSAR is comprised of a database of measured physicochemical properties, and various QSAR models that estimate physicochemical and ecotoxicological endpoints. ASTER will be available to international governmental agencies through the USEPA National Computing Center.

  19. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment for the Sandia National Laboratories Technical Area V Liquid Waste Disposal System surface impoundments

    SciTech Connect

    Dawson, L.A.; Eidson, A.F.

    1996-03-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment was completed for a former radioactive waste disposal site. The site, two unlined surface impoundment, was designed as part of the Liquid Waste Disposal System (LWDS) to receive radioactive effluent from nuclear reactors in Technical Area-V (TA-V) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). First, a statistical comparison of site sampling results to natural background, using EPA methods, and a spatial distribution analysis were performed. Risk assessment was conducted with SNL/NM`s Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System model. The risk assessment indicated that contamination from several constituents might have been high enough to require remediation. However, further analysis based on expected site closure activities and recent EPA guidance indicated that No Further Action was acceptable.

  1. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  2. A general cause based methodology for analysis of dependent failures in system risk and reliability assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Connor, Andrew N.

    Traditional parametric Common Cause Failure (CCF) models quantify the soft dependencies between component failures through the use of empirical ratio relationships. Furthermore CCF modeling has been essentially restricted to identical components in redundant formations. While this has been advantageous in allowing the prediction of system reliability with little or no data, it has been prohibitive in other applications such as modeling the characteristics of a system design or including the characteristics of failure when assessing the risk significance of a failure or degraded performance event (known as an event assessment). This dissertation extends the traditional definition of CCF to model soft dependencies between like and non-like components. It does this through the explicit modeling of soft dependencies between systems (coupling factors) such as sharing a maintenance team or sharing a manufacturer. By modeling the soft dependencies explicitly these relationships can be individually quantified based on the specific design of the system and allows for more accurate event assessment given knowledge of the failure cause. Since the most data informed model in use is the Alpha Factor Model (AFM), it has been used as the baseline for the proposed solutions. This dissertation analyzes the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Common Cause Failure Database event data to determine the suitability of the data and failure taxonomy for use in the proposed cause-based models. Recognizing that CCF events are characterized by full or partial presence of "root cause" and "coupling factor" a refined failure taxonomy is proposed which provides a direct link between the failure cause category and the coupling factors. This dissertation proposes two CCF models (a) Partial Alpha Factor Model (PAFM) that accounts for the relevant coupling factors based on system design and provide event assessment with knowledge of the failure cause, and (b)General Dependency Model (GDM),which uses

  3. Caries-risk profiles in Italian adults using computer caries assessment system and ICDAS.

    PubMed

    Carta, Giovanna; Cagetti, Maria Grazia; Cocco, Fabio; Sale, Silvana; Lingström, Peter; Campus, Guglielmo

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the correlation among socio-behavioral factors, caries status and caries risk, calculated through Cariogram, in an adult population. Four hundred eighty subjects (mean age 40.73, SE ± 0.33) randomly selected from the municipal electoral registry consented to participate in the survey. Subjects were examined, and the International Caries Detection Assessment System (ICDAS) index was registered. A highly structured questionnaire was submitted to investigate (1) personal data (i.e., age, gender, educational level, job categorization), (2) life-style behavior (i.e., smoking and dietary habits), and (3) oral health behavior (i.e., tooth brushing, use of fluoride and dental check-up frequency). An evaluation of the mutans streptococci concentration in saliva was also performed. Information on caries-related factors was entered into the Cariogram in order to generate an individual caries risk profile for each subject. Multinomial logistic regression was performed using Cariogram levels as the dependent variable. The possible correlated variables were analyzed using the principal component analysis (PCA). Considering ICDAS scores, 5.62% of the sample had at least an initial decay (ICDAS = 1-2), whereas 40.83% of the sample presented at least one moderate decay (ICDAS = 3-4) and 17.08% a severe decay (ICDAS = 5-6). Decay at ICDAS levels 5-6 and more than 5 missing teeth were statistically associated with Cariogram scores (OR = 2.36, 95%CI = 1.83-3.03 and OR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.13-1.82, respectively). The results suggest that the Cariogram model was able to identify caries-related factors in an adult population. A direct association among the risk categories from Cariogram, the caries status and some socio-behavioral variables was verified.

  4. Environmental (Saprozoic) Pathogens of Engineered Water Systems: Understanding Their Ecology for Risk Assessment and Management.

    PubMed

    Ashbolt, Nicholas J

    2015-01-01

    Major waterborne (enteric) pathogens are relatively well understood and treatment controls are effective when well managed. However, water-based, saprozoic pathogens that grow within engineered water systems (primarily within biofilms/sediments) cannot be controlled by water treatment alone prior to entry into water distribution and other engineered water systems. Growth within biofilms or as in the case of Legionella pneumophila, primarily within free-living protozoa feeding on biofilms, results from competitive advantage. Meaning, to understand how to manage water-based pathogen diseases (a sub-set of saprozoses) we need to understand the microbial ecology of biofilms; with key factors including biofilm bacterial diversity that influence amoebae hosts and members antagonistic to water-based pathogens, along with impacts from biofilm substratum, water temperature, flow conditions and disinfectant residual-all control variables. Major saprozoic pathogens covering viruses, bacteria, fungi and free-living protozoa are listed, yet today most of the recognized health burden from drinking waters is driven by legionellae, non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) and, to a lesser extent, Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In developing best management practices for engineered water systems based on hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) or water safety plan (WSP) approaches, multi-factor control strategies, based on quantitative microbial risk assessments need to be developed, to reduce disease from largely opportunistic, water-based pathogens. PMID:26102291

  5. Environmental (Saprozoic) Pathogens of Engineered Water Systems: Understanding Their Ecology for Risk Assessment and Management

    PubMed Central

    Ashbolt, Nicholas J.

    2015-01-01

    Major waterborne (enteric) pathogens are relatively well understood and treatment controls are effective when well managed. However, water-based, saprozoic pathogens that grow within engineered water systems (primarily within biofilms/sediments) cannot be controlled by water treatment alone prior to entry into water distribution and other engineered water systems. Growth within biofilms or as in the case of Legionella pneumophila, primarily within free-living protozoa feeding on biofilms, results from competitive advantage. Meaning, to understand how to manage water-based pathogen diseases (a sub-set of saprozoses) we need to understand the microbial ecology of biofilms; with key factors including biofilm bacterial diversity that influence amoebae hosts and members antagonistic to water-based pathogens, along with impacts from biofilm substratum, water temperature, flow conditions and disinfectant residual—all control variables. Major saprozoic pathogens covering viruses, bacteria, fungi and free-living protozoa are listed, yet today most of the recognized health burden from drinking waters is driven by legionellae, non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) and, to a lesser extent, Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In developing best management practices for engineered water systems based on hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) or water safety plan (WSP) approaches, multi-factor control strategies, based on quantitative microbial risk assessments need to be developed, to reduce disease from largely opportunistic, water-based pathogens. PMID:26102291

  6. Code System For Risk Assessment From Underground Radioactive Waste Disposal In the United Kingdom.

    SciTech Connect

    THOMPSON,

    2000-04-18

    Version 00 The SYVAC D/2 program simulates the ground water mediated movement of radionuclides from underground facilities for the disposal of low and intermediate level wastes to the accessible environment, and provides an estimate of the subsequent radiological risk to man. The simulated timescales are usually within the range 1.0E+03 to 1.0E+07 years. SYVAC is capable of modelling both shallow disposal facilities (located in argillaceous media and overlaying an aquifer) and deep disposal facilities (in a saturated environment). The software was developed for use within the UK Department of the Environment (DOE) Radioactive Waste Management Programme, as one tool in the DOE Assessment Methodology. The acronym SYVAC (System Variability Analysis Code for deep and shallow burial of radioactive waste) comes from the name of an assessment code originally obtained from the Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL) in 1982, which was found to be inappropriate for geological conditions in the UK. The development of the previous version, SYVAC A/C, was undertaken by the following private installations under UK Department of the Environment (DOE) contracts: Atkins Research & Development, Epsom, Surrey, England; Associated Nuclear Services, Epsom, Surrey, England; CAP Scientific, London, England; Electrowatt Engineering Services, Horsham, West Sussex, England; and Scicon Limited, Wavendon, Milton Kenes, England.

  7. Code System For Risk Assessment From Underground Radioactive Waste Disposal In the United Kingdom.

    2000-04-18

    Version 00 The SYVAC D/2 program simulates the ground water mediated movement of radionuclides from underground facilities for the disposal of low and intermediate level wastes to the accessible environment, and provides an estimate of the subsequent radiological risk to man. The simulated timescales are usually within the range 1.0E+03 to 1.0E+07 years. SYVAC is capable of modelling both shallow disposal facilities (located in argillaceous media and overlaying an aquifer) and deep disposal facilities (inmore » a saturated environment). The software was developed for use within the UK Department of the Environment (DOE) Radioactive Waste Management Programme, as one tool in the DOE Assessment Methodology. The acronym SYVAC (System Variability Analysis Code for deep and shallow burial of radioactive waste) comes from the name of an assessment code originally obtained from the Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL) in 1982, which was found to be inappropriate for geological conditions in the UK. The development of the previous version, SYVAC A/C, was undertaken by the following private installations under UK Department of the Environment (DOE) contracts: Atkins Research & Development, Epsom, Surrey, England; Associated Nuclear Services, Epsom, Surrey, England; CAP Scientific, London, England; Electrowatt Engineering Services, Horsham, West Sussex, England; and Scicon Limited, Wavendon, Milton Kenes, England.« less

  8. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment).

  9. EPA's neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines.

    PubMed

    Boyes, W K; Dourson, M L; Patterson, J; Tilson, H A; Sette, W F; MacPhail, R C; Li, A A; O'Donoghue, J L

    1997-12-01

    The proposed Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment Guidelines (U.S. EPA, 1995c Fed. Reg. 60(192), 52032-52056) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were the subject of a workshop at the 1997 Meeting of the Society of Toxicology. The workshop considered the role of guidelines in the risk assessment process, the primary features, scientific basis, and implications of the guidelines for EPA program offices, as well as for industrial neurotoxicologists from the perspectives of both pesticides and toxic substances regulation. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1983, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process) established a framework for distinguishing risk management from risk assessment, the latter being the result of integrating hazard identification, hazard characterization, and exposure assessment data. The guidelines are intended to establish operating principles that will be used when examining data in a risk assessment context. The proposed neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines provide a conceptual framework for deciding whether or not a chemically induced effect can be considered to be evidence of neurotoxicity. Topics in the proposed guidelines include structural and functional effects, dose-response and -duration considerations, and relationships between effects. Among the issues that must be considered are the multiplicity of chemical effects, the levels of biological organization in the nervous system, and the tests, measurements, and protocols used. Judgment of the adversity of an effect depends heavily on the amount and types of data available. The attribution of a chemically induced effect to an action on the nervous system depends on several factors such as the quality of the study, the nature of the outcome, dose-response and time-response relationships, and the possible involvement of nonneural factors. The guidelines will also serve as a reference for those conducting neurotoxicity testing, as well as establish a

  10. Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System in Ireland: methods and response rates.

    PubMed

    O'Keeffe, Linda M; Kearney, Patricia M; Greene, Richard A

    2015-03-01

    To describe response rates and characteristics associated with response to the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System study in Ireland (PRAMS Ireland). Using hospital discharge records of live births at a large, urban, obstetric hospital, a sampling frame of approximately 2,400 mother-infant pairs were used to alternately sample 1,200 women. Mothers' information including name, address, parity, age and infant characteristics such as sex and gestational age at delivery were extracted from records. Modes of contact included an invitation letter with option to opt out of the study, three mail surveys, a reminder letter and text message reminder for remaining non-respondents. Sixty-one per cent of women responded to the PRAMS Ireland survey over a 133 day response period. Women aged <30, single women, multiparous women and women with a preterm delivery were less likely to respond. Women participating in PRAMS Ireland were similar to the national birth profile in 2011 which had a mean age of 32, were 40 % primiparous, 33 % single or never married and had a 28 % caesarean section rate. Survey and protocol changes are required to increase response rates above recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) thresholds of 65 % within the recommended 90 day data collection cycle. Additional efforts such as stratification and over-sampling are required to increase representativeness among hard to reach groups such as younger, single and multiparous women before expanding the project to an ongoing, national surveillance system in Ireland. PMID:24912944

  11. Feasibility Study of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System in Iran

    PubMed Central

    KHARAGHANI, Roghieh; SHARIATI, Mohammad; YUNESIAN, Masud; KERAMAT, Afsaneh; MOGHISI, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Background: A surveillance system helps to detect epidemics and the pattern of the incidence of the problems in the community and is important for evidence based decision making. This study was conducted to determine the feasibility of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) in Iran. Methods: PRAMS feasibility was assessed in a cross-sectional study in the city of Shahriar, located in the west of Tehran in 2013. In this study, 811 women within 2 to 6 months postpartum who had a live or still birth were selected from thyroid screening forms and hospital records through a systematic simple random sampling method. Trained interviewers collected the data via calling mothers from health centers or through home visits. The outcome was tested on the “TELOS” model including technical, economic, legal, operational and schedule feasibility components. Results: Thirty-seven health volunteers collected the data in this study. Many prevalence estimates were comparable with national and Tehran data (technical feasibility). A home based completed questionnaire cost 2.45 and a phone cost 1.89 USD (economic feasibility). The project was consistent with legal requirements (legal feasibility). The participation rate was 92.8% (95%CI: 92.7–95.3) for home visits and 90.9% (95% CI: 87.3–93.6) for the phonemethod. Over 80% of different sections of the questionnaire were completed (operational feasibility). All data collection processes took 35 days (schedule feasibility). Conclusion: The adapted PRAMS could be considered feasible in Iran. Its widespread and periodic implementation can provide valuable maternal and child health information in the country. PMID:26171360

  12. Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

    SciTech Connect

    Waters, Michael Jackson, Marcus

    2008-11-15

    The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens and presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including

  13. A Systems Approach to Assessing Risk: The Role of Metabolism Research in Describing and Predicting Exposure

    EPA Science Inventory

    An important component of assessing risk is defining the exposure of a chemical stressor to a target organism. Often the chemical stressor is assumed to be a single compound even when it is comprised of different stereoisomers (e.g., pyrethroids and 1,2,4-triazole fungicides), w...

  14. Associating changes in the immune system with clinical diseases for interpretation in risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Luster, Michael I; Germolec, Dori R; Parks, Christine G; Blaciforti, Laura; Kashon, Michael; Luebke, Robert

    2004-01-01

    This overview unit discusses the relationship between immunosuppression, a potential consequence of immunotoxicity, and disease progression. It also discusses other factors, such as stress and age, that affect disease susceptibility. These factors play an important role in risk assessment for exposures to environmental factors.

  15. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment##

    EPA Science Inventory

    This overview is a revision to the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenants of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goa...

  16. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    DeWitt, Jamie C; Germolec, Dori R; Luebke, Robert W; Johnson, Victor J

    2016-01-01

    This overview is an update of the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenets of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goal of this unit is still to highlight relationships between xenobiotic-induced immunosuppression and risk of clinical diseases progression. In immunotoxicology, this may require development of models to equate moderate changes in markers of immune functions to potential changes in incidence or severity of infectious diseases. For most xenobiotics, exposure levels and disease incidence data are rarely available, and safe exposure levels must be estimated based on observations from experimental models or human biomarker studies. Thus, it is important to establish a scientifically sound framework that allows accurate and quantitative interpretation of experimental or biomarker data in the risk assessment process.

  17. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  18. Development and application of the dynamic system doctor to nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessments.

    SciTech Connect

    Kunsman, David Marvin; Aldemir, Tunc; Rutt, Benjamin; Metzroth, Kyle; Catalyurek, Umit; Denning, Richard; Hakobyan, Aram; Dunagan, Sean C.

    2008-05-01

    This LDRD project has produced a tool that makes probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear reactors - analyses which are very resource intensive - more efficient. PRAs of nuclear reactors are being increasingly relied on by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.N.R.C.) for licensing decisions for current and advanced reactors. Yet, PRAs are produced much as they were 20 years ago. The work here applied a modern systems analysis technique to the accident progression analysis portion of the PRA; the technique was a system-independent multi-task computer driver routine. Initially, the objective of the work was to fuse the accident progression event tree (APET) portion of a PRA to the dynamic system doctor (DSD) created by Ohio State University. Instead, during the initial efforts, it was found that the DSD could be linked directly to a detailed accident progression phenomenological simulation code - the type on which APET construction and analysis relies, albeit indirectly - and thereby directly create and analyze the APET. The expanded DSD computational architecture and infrastructure that was created during this effort is called ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees). ADAPT is a system software infrastructure that supports execution and analysis of multiple dynamic event-tree simulations on distributed environments. A simulator abstraction layer was developed, and a generic driver was implemented for executing simulators on a distributed environment. As a demonstration of the use of the methodological tool, ADAPT was applied to quantify the likelihood of competing accident progression pathways occurring for a particular accident scenario in a particular reactor type using MELCOR, an integrated severe accident analysis code developed at Sandia. (ADAPT was intentionally created with flexibility, however, and is not limited to interacting with only one code. With minor coding changes to input files, ADAPT can be linked to other

  19. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  20. Testing a model-driven Geographical Information System for risk assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew; Latutrie, Benjamin; Andredakis, Ioannis; De Groeve, Tom; Langlois, Eric; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Del Negro, Ciro; Favalli, Massimiliano; Fujita, Eisuke; Kelfoun, Karim; Rongo, Rocco

    2016-04-01

    RED-SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modeling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. It is an informal working group that has evolved around the philosophy of combining global scientific resources, in the realm of physical volcanology, remote sensing and modeling, to better define and limit uncertainty. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. The main recommendation of the workshop in terms of modeling was that there is a pressing need for "real-time input of reliable Time-Averaged Discharge Rate (TADR) data with regular up-dates of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) if modeling is to be effective; the DEMs can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community." We thus set up a test to explore (i) which model source terms are needed, (ii) how they can be provided and updated, and (iii) how can models be run and applied in an ensemble approach. The test used two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), for which a prototype Geographical Information System (GIS) was set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. This system drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building-type. After defining lava flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), five operational lava flow emplacement models were run (DOWNFLOW, FLOWGO, LAVASIM, MAGFLOW and VOLCFLOW) to produce a projection for likelihood of impact for all pixels within the area covered by the GIS, based on agreement between models. The test thus aimed not to assess the model output, but instead to examine overlapping output. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced. The exercise identified several

  1. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  2. An adaptable mesocosm platform for performing integrated assessments of nanomaterial risk in complex environmental systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Auffan, Mélanie; Tella, Marie; Santaella, Catherine; Brousset, Lenka; Paillès, Christine; Barakat, Mohamed; Espinasse, Benjamin; Artells, Ester; Issartel, Julien; Masion, Armand; Rose, Jérôme; Wiesner, Mark R.; Achouak, Wafa; Thiéry, Alain; Bottero, Jean-Yves

    2014-07-01

    Physical-chemists, (micro)biologists, and ecologists need to conduct meaningful experiments to study the environmental risk of engineered nanomaterials with access to relevant mechanistic data across several spatial and temporal scales. Indoor aquatic mesocosms (60L) that can be tailored to virtually mimic any ecosystem appear as a particularly well-suited device. Here, this concept is illustrated by a pilot study aimed at assessing the distribution of a CeO2-based nanomaterial within our system at low concentration (1.5 mg/L). Physico-chemical as well as microbiological parameters took two weeks to equilibrate. These parameters were found to be reproducible across the 9-mesocosm setup over a 45-day period of time. Recovery mass balances of 115 +/- 18% and 60 +/- 30% of the Ce were obtained for the pulse dosing and the chronic dosing, respectively. This demonstrated the relevance of our experimental approach that allows for adequately monitoring the fate and impact of a given nanomaterial.

  3. New techniques for environmental monitoring and risk assessment in water surface systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios-Theodosios; Maniatis, Georgios; Hoey, Trevor; Escudero, Javier; Vagras, Patricia

    2016-04-01

    Our society is continuously impacted by significant weather events many times resulting in catastrophes that interrupt our normal way of life. In the context of climate change and increasing urbanisation these "extreme" hydrologic events are intensified both in magnitude and frequency, inducing costs of the order of billions of pounds. The vast majority of such costs and impacts (even more to developed societies) are due to water related catastrophes such as the geomorphic action of flowing water (including scouring of critical infrastructure, bed and bank destabilisation) and flooding. New tools and radically novel concepts are in need, to enable our society becoming more resilient. In this presentation, new research at the interface of sensors and water engineering is presented, focusing on addressing the above challenges in a holistic and comprehensive manner. In particular, the design, development, testing and calibration, as well as preliminary field implementation of a new tool for risk assessment and environmental monitoring in water surface systems, is explored in this work. It is demonstrated that novel advances in conceptual approaches in water engineering and specifically in the field of hydrodynamic transport of solids (such as the impulse and energy criteria) can be successfully combined with rapid advances in sensors to help monitor and increase the resilience of our society against catastrophic hydrologic events.

  4. An adaptable mesocosm platform for performing integrated assessments of nanomaterial risk in complex environmental systems

    PubMed Central

    Auffan, Mélanie; Tella, Marie; Santaella, Catherine; Brousset, Lenka; Paillès, Christine; Barakat, Mohamed; Espinasse, Benjamin; Artells, Ester; Issartel, Julien; Masion, Armand; Rose, Jérôme; Wiesner, Mark R.; Achouak, Wafa; Thiéry, Alain; Bottero, Jean-Yves

    2014-01-01

    Physical-chemists, (micro)biologists, and ecologists need to conduct meaningful experiments to study the environmental risk of engineered nanomaterials with access to relevant mechanistic data across several spatial and temporal scales. Indoor aquatic mesocosms (60L) that can be tailored to virtually mimic any ecosystem appear as a particularly well-suited device. Here, this concept is illustrated by a pilot study aimed at assessing the distribution of a CeO2-based nanomaterial within our system at low concentration (1.5 mg/L). Physico-chemical as well as microbiological parameters took two weeks to equilibrate. These parameters were found to be reproducible across the 9-mesocosm setup over a 45-day period of time. Recovery mass balances of 115 ± 18% and 60 ± 30% of the Ce were obtained for the pulse dosing and the chronic dosing, respectively. This demonstrated the relevance of our experimental approach that allows for adequately monitoring the fate and impact of a given nanomaterial. PMID:25001877

  5. Planning and Building Qualifiable Embedded Systems: Safety and Risk Properties Assessment for a Large and Complex System with Embedded Subsystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, N.; Lopes, R.; Barbosa, R.

    2012-01-01

    Systems based on embedded components and applications are today used in all markets. They are planned and developed by all types of institutions with different types of background experience, multidisciplinary teams and all types of capability and maturity levels. Organisational/engineering maturity has an impact on all aspects of the engineering of large and complex systems. An embedded system is a specific computer system designed to perform one or more dedicated functions, usually with real-time constraints. It is generally integrated as part of a more complex device typically composed of specific hardware such as sensors and actuators. This article presents an experimented technique to evaluate the organisation, processes, system and software engineering practices, methods, tools and the planned/produced artefacts themselves, leading towards certification/qualification. The safety and risk assessment of such core and complex systems is explained, described on a step-by- step manner, while presenting the main results and conclusions of the application of the technique to a real case study.

  6. Enterprise Resource Planning Systems: Assessment of Risk Factors by California Community College Leaders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valente, Mario Manuel

    2011-01-01

    Most California Community Colleges have chosen to purchase and implement a Management Information Systems software solution also known as an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system in order to monitor, control, and automate their administrative tasks. ERP implementations are complex, expensive, high profile, and therefore high risk. To reduce…

  7. Extreme Environments and Extreme Science: Reliability and Risk Assessment for Autonomous Systems with Application to Polar Campaigns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trembanis, A.; Griffiths, G.

    2006-12-01

    Assessment of reliability and consequent risk to autonomous systems is an increasingly common and critical concern given the number of challenging new extreme environment research programs calling for the utilization of autonomous systems (e.g. AUVs, gliders, floats, etc.). The interest in using autonomous systems amongst the scientific community is particularly strong amongst polar research programs where so much vital area lies beyond the reach of traditional approaches. Therefore, the potential for scientific discovery is significantly increased, because of the very ability of autonomous systems to get to and gather information in the critical zones. The scientific merits and rewards of polar research are great but so too are the risks. There are risks both to mission success (i.e. science delivery) and risks to asset survival and recovery (i.e. retrieval). In polar settings the greatest increased risks are the complexities of operation (e.g. launch/recovery and retrieval) associated with sea ice and shelf ice. Even in open water settings the temporal and spatial dynamics of environmental conditions complicate the operation of autonomous systems. Very little systematic study and quantitative analysis has been conducted to evaluate the reliability and risk to autonomous systems in any operational setting let alone the demanding and increasingly sought after polar environments. Here we present some assessments of AUV reliability for polar and also non-polar settings drawing largely on datasets from both a large autonomous vehicle program (Autosub) and a small autonomous vehicle program (DOERRI) in order to illustrate key and common elements of reliability and risk that may provide insights to scientific end-users (PIs), program managers, and the developers and operators of other similar autonomous systems working in polar settings. An approach to risk management is laid out. Key risk mitigation elements are presented in categories of system stability and

  8. Data Model for Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Spatial Support Decision System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrejchenko, Vera; Bakker, Wim; van Westen, Cees

    2014-05-01

    The goal of the CHANGES Spatial Decision Support System is to support end-users in making decisions related to risk reduction measures for areas at risk from multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. The crucial parts in the design of the system are the user requirements, the data model, the data storage and management, and the relationships between the objects in the system. The implementation of the data model is carried out entirely with an open source database management system with a spatial extension. The web application is implemented using open source geospatial technologies with PostGIS as the database, Python for scripting, and Geoserver and javascript libraries for visualization and the client-side user-interface. The model can handle information from different study areas (currently, study areas from France, Romania, Italia and Poland are considered). Furthermore, the data model handles information about administrative units, projects accessible by different types of users, user-defined hazard types (floods, snow avalanches, debris flows, etc.), hazard intensity maps of different return periods, spatial probability maps, elements at risk maps (buildings, land parcels, linear features etc.), economic and population vulnerability information dependent on the hazard type and the type of the element at risk, in the form of vulnerability curves. The system has an inbuilt database of vulnerability curves, but users can also add their own ones. Included in the model is the management of a combination of different scenarios (e.g. related to climate change, land use change or population change) and alternatives (possible risk-reduction measures), as well as data-structures for saving the calculated economic or population loss or exposure per element at risk, aggregation of the loss and exposure using the administrative unit maps, and finally, producing the risk maps. The risk data can be used for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The

  9. Risk Assessment Workgroup report.

    PubMed

    Donohue, Joyce; Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Burch, Michael; Dietrich, Daniel; Hawkins, Belinda; Lloyd, Tony; Munns, Wayne; Steevens, Jeffery; Steffensen, Dennis; Stone, Dave; Tango, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The Risk Assessment Work Group focused on six charge questions related to CHABS, cyanobacteria and their toxins. The charge questions covered the following topics: Research needed to reduce uncertainty in establishing health based guidelines. Research that minimize the cost and maximize the benefits of various regulatory approaches. Exposure pathways for receptors of concern. Data available to support the derivation of health-based guideline values for harmful cyanobacterial algal blooms. Ecological services that guidelines or regulations should protect? A framework for making risk management determinations that incorporates consideration of the characteristics of CHABs, the risk for human health, ecosystem viability, and the costs and benefits of CHABs detection and management? The Work Group concluded that there is a considerable amount of human case-study data and information from animal studies to demonstrate that cyanobacterial toxins pose a hazard to humans, domestic animals, wildlife, and the ecosystem. However, the data on dose-response are limited and confounded by a lack of sufficient pure toxin to conduct most of the toxicological studies that will be needed in order to answer remaining questions on risk, and to provide the data for quantitative dose-response analysis. The Work Group recommended that research on purification or synthesis of pure toxin must be accomplished before the large scale studies to establish dose-response relationships will be possible. As the necessary-pure toxins become available, the Work Group recommended that studies be prioritized by the impact that they will have on reducing the uncertainty in the risk assessment in order to minimize the research costs and maximize the risk assessment benefits. Use of quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) and toxicity equivalency factor studies are also recommended as approaches for filling dose-response data gaps. The Work Group recognized that CHABs rarely introduce single

  10. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System: An Assessment of Immediate Risk of Violence for Individuals with Offending and Challenging Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindsay, William R.; Murphy, Lesley; Smith, Gordon; Murphy, Daniel; Edwards, Zoe; Chittock, Chris; Grieve, Alan; Young, Steven J.

    2004-01-01

    Purpose: Research on dynamic risk assessment has developed over the last 10 years and a number of variables have emerged as being possible predictors of future sexual and violent offences. These variables include hostile attitude/anger and compliance with routine. In 2002, Thornton ("Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research & Treatment" 14, 139)…

  11. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  12. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  13. Designing for Risk Assessment Systems for Patient Triage in Primary Health Care: A Literature Review

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues

    2016-01-01

    Background This literature review covers original journal papers published between 2011 and 2015. These papers review the current status of research on the application of human factors and ergonomics in risk assessment systems’ design to cope with the complexity, singularity, and danger in patient triage in primary health care. Objective This paper presents a systematic literature review that aims to identify, analyze, and interpret the application of available evidence from human factors and ergonomics to the design of tools, devices, and work processes to support risk assessment in the context of health care. Methods Electronic search was performed on 7 bibliographic databases of health sciences, engineering, and computer sciences disciplines. The quality and suitability of primary studies were evaluated, and selected papers were classified according to 4 classes of outcomes. Results A total of 1845 papers were retrieved by the initial search, culminating in 16 selected for data extraction after the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria and quality and suitability evaluation. Conclusions Results point out that the study of the implications of the lack of understanding about real work performance in designing for risk assessment in health care is very specific, little explored, and mostly focused on the development of tools. PMID:27528543

  14. Risk assessment of coal production: an information system user's manual. [SAS (Statistical Analysis System) format

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, A.P.; Birchfield, T.E.; Fore, C.S.

    1982-10-01

    A specialized information system comprising all US domestic coal mine and processing plant injuries as reported to the Mine Safety and Health Administration of the US Department of Labor for the years 1975 through 1980 has been developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for online and batch users. The data are stored in two principal datasets: (1) annual summaries of accidental injuries and fatalities in both surface and underground bituminous and anthracite mines, as well as information on injuries suffered by workers employed in coal-processing (blending, crushing, etc.) facilities; and (2) annual summaries of employment (person-hours, number of individuals) and production (tons) of each domestic mine or processing facility for which the US Department of Labor has granted an operating permit. There are currently more than 232 000 records available online to interested users. Data are recorded for the following variables: county, state, date of injury, sex of victim, age at time of accident, degree of injury, occupation title at time of injury, activity during injury, location of accident, type of coal, type of mine, type of mining machine, type of accident, source and nature of injury, part of body injured, total mine experience, experience at current mine and job title held at time of injury, and number of days away from work or number of days restricted or charged due to the injury. As these values are organized by FIPS (Federal Information Processing Standards) county code for each reporting facility, compilations may be made on a subregional or substate basis. The datasets have been established in SAS (Statistical Analysis System) format and are readily manipulated by SAS routines available at ORNL. Several appendices are included in the manual to provide the user with a detailed description of all the codes available for data retrieval. Sample retrieval sessions are also incorporated.

  15. CHARACTERIZATION OF DATA VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY: HEALTH EFFECTS ASSESSMENTS IN THE INTEGRATED RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM (IRIS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In response to a Congressional directive contained in HR 106-379 regarding EPA's appropriations for FY2000, EPA has undertaken an evaluation of the characterization of data variability and uncertainty in its Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health effects information dat...

  16. Application of a systems biology approach to skin allergy risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Maxwell, Gavin; Mackay, Cameron

    2008-11-01

    We have developed an in silico model of the induction of skin sensitisation, in order to characterise and quantify the contribution of each pathway to the overall biological process. This analysis has been used to guide our research on skin sensitisation and in vitro test development programmes, and provides a theoretical rationale for the interpretation and integration of non-animal predictive data for risk assessment (RA) purposes. The in vivo mouse Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) is now in widespread use for the evaluation of skin sensitisation potential and potency. Recent changes in European Union (EU) legislation (i.e. the 7th Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive) have made the development of nonanimal approaches to provide the data for skin sensitisation RA a key business need. Several in vitro predictive assays have already been developed for the prediction of skin sensitisation. However, these are based on the determination of a small number of pathways within the overall biological process, and our understanding of the relative contribution of these individual pathways to skin sensitisation induction is limited. To address this knowledge gap, a "systems biology" approach has been used to construct a computer-based mathematical model of the induction of skin sensitisation, in collaboration with Entelos, Inc. The biological mechanisms underlying the induction phase of skin sensitisation are represented by nonlinear ordinary differential equations and defined by using information from over 500 published papers. By using the model, we have identified knowledge gaps for future investigative research, and key factors that have a major influence on the induction of skin sensitisation (e.g. TNF-alpha production in the epidermis). The relative contribution of each of these key pathways has been assessed by determining their contributions to the overall process (e.g. sensitiser-specific T-cell proliferation in the draining lymph node). This information provides a

  17. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage. PMID:23477199

  18. Decade of karst risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolkin, Vladimir

    2010-05-01

    Karst is one of the most hazardous processes on the Earth, at about 13% of the Russian area, including more than 300 towns and thousands of smaller settlements with 19% of the total population of Russia, are subject to karst deformations (Ragozin, 1994). During the time period 2000-2004, regional karst hazard and risk assessment was developed as an example of the Tatarstan Republic (Ragozin and Yolkin, 2003). The published paper was the first Russian research paper dedicated the technique and cartographic examples of probabilistic-deterministic risk assessment from karst processes. At present time, the technique of assessment of karst risk is improved, as well as investigations with reference to various areal or linear recipients are performed. In particular, for the pipeline systems the assessment of karst economic risk adapts, according to two scenarios: the pessimistic one (the most adverse in consequences) and the most probable (Yolkin and Anikeev, 2007, Yolkin, 2008,2009). By karst risk we mean the probabilistic index of hazard of karst and karst-suffosion sinkholes and surface settlements established for a certain object as it possible losses in various spheres for a given time period. Quantitative karst-hazard and risk assessment is carried out on the basis of the analysis of geological structure of territory, hydrogeological and engineering-geological conditions of territory, identification and prediction of karst hazards in time and space, assessment of vulnerability of objects to karst hazards, ranking and mapping of karst hazards as well as karst economic, social risks of losses. The obtained values of economic or social risk are the basis for choosing engineering protection measures, alternative design solutions and for estimating service conditions. It is necessary to mention that the procedure of vulnerability assessment is poorly developed with reference not only to karst sinkholes, but also to dangerous geological processes in general. For

  19. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  20. A Safety Risk Assessment Methodology for Decision Support Systems with an Application to the Expedite Departure Path Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snyder, Phillip T.; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In support of the NASA Advanced Air Transportation Technologies Project, the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center has developed a methodology to perform safety risk assessments for air traffic control/air traffic management decision Support systems and concepts. Changes in controller, pilot, and/or airline dispatcher tasks that are affected by the decision support system are related to associated hazards. These hazards are then assessed either qualitatively or quantitatively in terms of likelihood of occurring and the impact if they do occur. Those items that show a potential safety hazard level increase can then have research plans developed to address those safety risks areas. An application of this methodology will he demonstrated using the AATT decision support tool Expedite Departure Path.

  1. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  2. Lack of cardiovascular risk assessment in inflammatory arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus patients at a tertiary care center.

    PubMed

    Keeling, Stephanie O; Teo, Michelle; Fung, Daisy

    2011-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate cardiovascular risk assessment at a Canadian rheumatology center and describe the cardiovascular risk of inflammatory arthritis (IA) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients using the Framingham risk score. A retrospective chart review of 504 patients attending nine rheumatology practices at the University of Alberta Hospital was performed. A pre-specified case report form detailed patient demographics, cardiac risk factors, variables for the Framingham 2008 score, disease activity, and medication use. In this group of 504 patients, 64 (12.7%) had SLE (male (M) to female (F) ratio = 60:4) and 440 (87.3%) had an IA (M to F ratio = 117:323). Of the SLE patients, 31 (48.4%) met four or more American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria, 33 (51.6%) had less than four ACR criteria. Of the IA patients, 156 (35.5%) were CCP positive and 257 (58.4%) were RF positive. Utilizing the chart data, retrospective Framingham risk scores were calculable for one (1.6%) SLE patient and three (0.68%) IA patients. The most common cardiac risk factors not documented in the medical records of both the SLE and IA patients included: (1) positive family history of MI, (2) diabetes, and (3) lipid status. The blood pressure was more frequently documented in the SLE patients (93.8%) compared to the IA patients (56.1%). While traditional cardiac risk factors only partially contribute to the increased cardiovascular risk in these patients, cardiovascular risk assessment was suboptimally performed amongst a large group of rheumatologists. A dedicated cardiovascular risk reduction clinic for inflammatory rheumatic diseases has been established at this site to fulfill this need and evaluate treatment strategies. PMID:21503617

  3. Assessment of risks of EMI for personal medical electronic devices (PMEDs) from emissions of millimeter-wave security screening systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witters, Donald; Bassen, Howard; Guag, Joshua; Addissie, Bisrat; LaSorte, Nickolas; Rafai, Hazem

    2013-06-01

    This paper describes research and testing of a representative group of high priority body worn and implantable personal medical electronic devices (PMEDs) for exposure to millimeter wave (MMW) advanced imaging technology (AIT) security systems used at airports. The sample PMEDs included in this study were implantable cardiac pacemakers, ICDs, neurostimulators and insulin pumps. These PMEDs are designed and tested for susceptibility to electromagnetic interference (EMI) under the present standards for medical device electromagnetic compatibility (EMC). However, the present standards for medical equipment do not address exposure to the much higher frequency fields that are emitted by MMW security systems. Initial AIT emissions measurements were performed to assess the PMED and passenger exposures. Testing protocols were developed and testing methods were tailored to the type of PMED. In addition, a novel exposure simulation system was developed to allow controlled EMC testing without the need of the MMW AIT system. Methodology, test results, and analysis are presented, along with an assessment of the human exposure and risks for PMED users. The results on this study reveal no effects on the medical devices from the exposure to the MMW security system. Furthermore, the human exposure measurements and analysis showed levels well below applicable standard, and the risks for PMED users and others we assessed to be very low. These findings apply to the types of PMEDs used in the study though these findings might suggest that the risks for other, similar PMEDs would likely be similar.

  4. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  5. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  6. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  7. [Accumulation of Mercury in Soil-maize System of Non-ferrous Metals Smelting Area and Its Related Risk Assessment].

    PubMed

    Ji, Xiao-feng; Zheng, Na; Wang, Yang; Liu, Qiang; Zhang, Jing-jing

    2015-10-01

    Soil heavy metal pollution, especially the mercury pollution, has been widespread concern in non-ferrous metallurgical area. This study focused on the content, distribution and pollution status of Hg in maize soil of Huludao city. Meanwhile, Hg contents in the various organs of maize were analyzed. Hg concentration in soil ranged from 0.25 to 3.49 mg x kg(-1) with the average content of 1.78 mg x kg(-1), which was 48 times as high as the background value of Liaoning soil. Around 2-3m range of zinc plant, the pattern of spatial distribution showed that the content of Hg was gradually increased with the increase of the distance to Huludao zinc plant. The result of geoaccumulation index reflected that Hg pollution is up to moderate pollution level on the whole. 54. 6% of the total sample were belonged to the serious pollution level. The potential ecological risk index of Hakanson was applied to assess the ecological risk of Hg. The target hazard quotient method (THQ) was used to assess the health risk for human, the results revealed that there was no significant health risk by consumption corn. Mercury is very difficult to transport in soil-maize system, and there is no obvious health risks to adults. But the risk coefficient of children, which is up to 0.056. is much higher than adults.

  8. Risk Assessment: Implications for Biologic Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses risk assessment, including risk assessment as a modeling process, models and social values, political decision making, the public, and risk assessment techniques in the biology classroom. (MKR)

  9. Practical approaches to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Brooke-Taylor, S

    2001-06-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  10. Contamination of fish in UK fresh water systems: risk assessment for human consumption.

    PubMed

    Rose, Martin; Fernandes, Alwyn; Mortimer, David; Baskaran, Christina

    2015-03-01

    There is growing evidence that more people in the UK are consuming fish taken from inland waterways. This may be partly due to the increased numbers of migrants from Eastern Europe where this is part of traditional culture and partly because of a desire to try new foods encouraged by celebrity chefs. Fish can bioaccumulate environmental contaminants and so could contribute a significant amount to dietary exposure to these chemicals. This study examined the changing habits of anglers and consumers and characterised a range of existing and emerging contaminants in freshwater fish species with a view to determining current levels of occurrence and possible risk from consumption. The project was conducted in two stages. The first stage included (a) a study that identified freshwater systems that are contaminated either by anthropogenic activity or as a result of the geology of the area; and (b) socioeconomic research to assess the consumption habits of the public, particularly anglers, with respect to fish and shellfish from unmanaged inland waterways. Based on the outcome from the first stage, specific rivers and other inland waterways were chosen for investigation, along with the range of contaminants to be included in the analytical programme. Predicted contamination levels and prevalence of anglers were among the factors taken into consideration. The second stage of the project involved sampling and analysis of fish taken from selected locations on the chosen waterways. A range of fish species from a variety of inland water habitats were obtained. These were analysed for the following contaminants: heavy metals, chlorinated dioxins (PCDD/Fs), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), brominated dioxins (PBDD/Fs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), OC pesticides, organotin compounds and organo-fluorine compounds. Legal limits for contaminants apply only to food traded commercially, but some samples

  11. Contamination of fish in UK fresh water systems: risk assessment for human consumption.

    PubMed

    Rose, Martin; Fernandes, Alwyn; Mortimer, David; Baskaran, Christina

    2015-03-01

    There is growing evidence that more people in the UK are consuming fish taken from inland waterways. This may be partly due to the increased numbers of migrants from Eastern Europe where this is part of traditional culture and partly because of a desire to try new foods encouraged by celebrity chefs. Fish can bioaccumulate environmental contaminants and so could contribute a significant amount to dietary exposure to these chemicals. This study examined the changing habits of anglers and consumers and characterised a range of existing and emerging contaminants in freshwater fish species with a view to determining current levels of occurrence and possible risk from consumption. The project was conducted in two stages. The first stage included (a) a study that identified freshwater systems that are contaminated either by anthropogenic activity or as a result of the geology of the area; and (b) socioeconomic research to assess the consumption habits of the public, particularly anglers, with respect to fish and shellfish from unmanaged inland waterways. Based on the outcome from the first stage, specific rivers and other inland waterways were chosen for investigation, along with the range of contaminants to be included in the analytical programme. Predicted contamination levels and prevalence of anglers were among the factors taken into consideration. The second stage of the project involved sampling and analysis of fish taken from selected locations on the chosen waterways. A range of fish species from a variety of inland water habitats were obtained. These were analysed for the following contaminants: heavy metals, chlorinated dioxins (PCDD/Fs), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), brominated dioxins (PBDD/Fs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), OC pesticides, organotin compounds and organo-fluorine compounds. Legal limits for contaminants apply only to food traded commercially, but some samples

  12. Cloud-Based Smart Health Monitoring System for Automatic Cardiovascular and Fall Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients.

    PubMed

    Melillo, P; Orrico, A; Scala, P; Crispino, F; Pecchia, L

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe the design and the preliminary validation of a platform developed to collect and automatically analyze biomedical signals for risk assessment of vascular events and falls in hypertensive patients. This m-health platform, based on cloud computing, was designed to be flexible, extensible, and transparent, and to provide proactive remote monitoring via data-mining functionalities. A retrospective study was conducted to train and test the platform. The developed system was able to predict a future vascular event within the next 12 months with an accuracy rate of 84 % and to identify fallers with an accuracy rate of 72 %. In an ongoing prospective trial, almost all the recruited patients accepted favorably the system with a limited rate of inadherences causing data losses (<20 %). The developed platform supported clinical decision by processing tele-monitored data and providing quick and accurate risk assessment of vascular events and falls. PMID:26276015

  13. A probabilistic model for silver bioaccumulation in aquatic systems and assessment of human health risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warila, James; Batterman, Stuart; Passino-Reader, Dora R.

    2001-01-01

    Silver (Ag) is discharged in wastewater effluents and is also a component in a proposed secondary water disinfectant. A steady-state model was developed to simulate bioaccumulation in aquatic biota and assess ecological and human health risks. Trophic levels included phytoplankton, invertebrates, brown trout, and common carp. Uptake routes included water, food, or sediment. Based on an extensive review of the literature, distributions were derived for most inputs for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Three scenarios represented ranges of dilution and turbidity. Compared with the limited field data available, median estimates of Ag in carp (0.07-2.1 Iμg/g dry weight) were 0.5 to 9 times measured values, and all measurements were within the predicted interquartile range. Median Ag concentrations in biota were ranked invertebrates > phytoplankton > trout > carp. Biotic concentrations were highest for conditions of low dilution and low turbidity. Critical variables included Ag assimilation eficiency, specific feeding rate, and the phytoplankton bioconcentration factor. Bioaccumulation of Ag seems unlikely to result in txicity to aquatic biota and humans consuming fish. Although the highest predicted Ag concentrations in water (>200 ng/L) may pose chronic risks to early survival and development of salmonids and risks of argyria to subsistence fishers, these results occur under highly conservative conditions.

  14. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  15. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  16. Prognostic Health Monitoring System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Binh T. Pham; Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J Lybeck; Magdy S Tawfik

    2012-05-01

    Prognostic health monitoring (PHM) is a proactive approach to monitor the ability of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) to withstand structural, thermal, and chemical loadings over the SSCs planned service lifespans. The current efforts to extend the operational license lifetime of the aging fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years and beyond can benefit from a systematic application of PHM technology. Implementing a PHM system would strengthen the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce plant outage time, and reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, a nuclear power plant has thousands of SSCs, so implementing a PHM system that covers all SSCs requires careful planning and prioritization. This paper therefore focuses on a component selection that is based on the analysis of a component's failure probability, risk, and cost. Ultimately, the decision on component selection depend on the overall economical benefits arising from safety and operational considerations associated with implementing the PHM system.

  17. [Predictive microbiology and risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, G; Kleer, J

    2004-05-01

    Predictive microbiology (predictive modelling PM), in spite of its limits and short-comings, may often contribute to a reduction of the problems arising when HACCP systems are established or microbiological risk assessment is done. Having identified the agents which constitute a risk and the contamination rate and density in the raw material, the influences of production steps and storage on these microorganisms have to be examined. Finally, there should be an exposure assessment, i.e. an estimate of the contamination density in the final product at the time of consumption. Should the exposure assessment together with data from dose response assessments reveal a potential for intake of inacceptable numbers of organisms, the risk identified has to be characterized. As a consequence, risk management should result in a modification of the composition of the product and/or of the production process so that the risk does not surpass an acceptable limit. For this approach it is indispensable to have product- and process-specific information on the multiplication of pathogens prior to heat treatment, on reduction of their density by thermal treatment and on growth or dying of organisms having survived heat treatment or penetrated into the product after heat treatment as post-process contaminant. Commonly, challenge tests are conducted to provide such information. But they are time consuming and, as their results are only valid for the specific product tested and the conditions prevailing during the experiment, the have to be repeated if there is any modification of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. At least partially, the PM may replace the challenge tests. The efficiency of the models is rated particularly high if they are used already at the stage of product development when the question has to be answered whether a planned recipe or process of production are already save or have to be modified to become save. PMID:15233338

  18. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  20. Real-time safety risk assessment based on a real-time location system for hydropower construction sites.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Hanchen; Lin, Peng; Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

    2014-01-01

    The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns.

  1. Real-Time Safety Risk Assessment Based on a Real-Time Location System for Hydropower Construction Sites

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

    2014-01-01

    The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns. PMID:25114958

  2. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Patricia A H

    2013-01-01

    It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed.

  4. Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Patricia A H

    2013-01-01

    It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed. PMID:24018517

  5. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  6. The unicellular fungal tool RhoTox for risk assessments in groundwater systems.

    PubMed

    Lategan, Maria Josie; Klare, William; Kidd, Sarah; Hose, Grant C; Nevalainen, Helena

    2016-10-01

    The recent inclusion of yeasts in environmental monitoring recognizes their ecological significance and sensitivity to toxicants. Here we present a robust and simple two-step toxicity assay and demonstrate the sensitivity of an ubiquitous groundwater yeast, Rhodotorula minuta, to a range of metals and metalloids. The test species was sensitive to copper with a 24h EC50 of 35µg Cu/L, followed in order of decreasing sensitivity by zinc, chromium (VI) and arsenic (EC50 4.40mg As (III)/L). The strain demonstrated an unexpected tolerance to chromium (VI), having an EC50 value (3.45mg Cr (VI)/L) similar to that of arsenic. The inclusion of a unicellular, microbial test-species into the suite of existing multicellular test species for toxicity evaluation is a key step towards strengthening the assessment of risk for groundwater ecosystems. PMID:27258820

  7. The unicellular fungal tool RhoTox for risk assessments in groundwater systems.

    PubMed

    Lategan, Maria Josie; Klare, William; Kidd, Sarah; Hose, Grant C; Nevalainen, Helena

    2016-10-01

    The recent inclusion of yeasts in environmental monitoring recognizes their ecological significance and sensitivity to toxicants. Here we present a robust and simple two-step toxicity assay and demonstrate the sensitivity of an ubiquitous groundwater yeast, Rhodotorula minuta, to a range of metals and metalloids. The test species was sensitive to copper with a 24h EC50 of 35µg Cu/L, followed in order of decreasing sensitivity by zinc, chromium (VI) and arsenic (EC50 4.40mg As (III)/L). The strain demonstrated an unexpected tolerance to chromium (VI), having an EC50 value (3.45mg Cr (VI)/L) similar to that of arsenic. The inclusion of a unicellular, microbial test-species into the suite of existing multicellular test species for toxicity evaluation is a key step towards strengthening the assessment of risk for groundwater ecosystems.

  8. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  9. Use of soil survey information to assess regional salinization risk using geographical information systems

    SciTech Connect

    Bui, E.N.; Smettem, K.R.J.; Moran, C.J.; Williams, J.

    1996-05-01

    Previous experience in southern and western Australia has shown that tree clearing alters the water balance in a landscape, leading to increased deep drainage and consequent rises in phreatic water tables. Assessment of the risk of regional salinization involves integration of hydrology, hydrogeology, soil and land management issues. An example of the use of soil survey data, integrated with water resources and digital elevation data in a GIS, to estimate the risk of salinization after tree clearing is illustrated for the upper Burdekin river basin in the wet/dry tropics of North Queensland. Soil map unit descriptions include information on soil-landform relations, parent material, soil thickness, depth to bedrock and dominant and subdominant soil types. Such information can be used to qualitatively estimate permeability and drainage classes (high, medium, or low) and to determine likely recharge and discharge areas was used to cross-check this qualitative classification. The distributions of saline soils and shallow water tables are used to assess the salinity hazard of the region. Where % total soluble salts (TSS) are >0.25% and water table <6 m deep, a salinity hazard is present. This hazard can translate into a salinity problem if the hydrologic balance is altered so that the salt is remobilized and redeposited in the landscape. An estimate of the likelihood and amount of increased recharge to groundwater after tree clearing was obtained using water balance models with soil physical parameters measured at key sites. Where physical data were not available, surrogate physical properties were estimated from the soil survey data. Results suggest that tree clearing may increase deep drainage by up to 10 times and that in watersheds where shallow unconfined aquifiers are present and where %TSS > 0.25%, recharge areas should not be cleared. 30 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Towards an integrated environmental risk assessment of emissions from ships' propulsion systems.

    PubMed

    Blasco, Julián; Durán-Grados, Vanesa; Hampel, Miriam; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Juan

    2014-05-01

    Large ships, particularly container ships, tankers, bulk carriers and cruise ships are significant individual contributors to air pollution. The European Environment Agency recognizes that air pollution in Europe is a local, regional and transborder problem caused by the emission of specific pollutants, which either directly or through chemical reactions lead to negative impacts, such as damage to human health and ecosystems. In the Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament emissions from ships are mentioned explicitly in the list of pressures and impacts that should be reduced or minimized to maintain or obtain a good ecological status. While SOx and NOx contribute mainly to ocean and soil acidification and climate change, PM (particularly ultrafine particles in the range of nanoparticles) has the potential to act more directly on human and ecosystem health. Thus, in terms of risk assessment, one of the most dangerous atmospheric aerosols for environmental and human health is in the size range of nanoparticles. To our knowledge, no study has been carried out on the effects of the fraction that ends up in the water column and to which aquatic and sediment-dwelling organisms are exposed. Therefore, an integrated environmental risk assessment of the effects of emissions from oceangoing ships including the aquatic compartment is necessary. Research should focus on the quantitative and qualitative determination of pollutant emissions from ships and their distribution and fate. This will include the in situ measurement of emissions in ships in order to derive realistic emission factors, and the application of atmospheric and oceanographic transportation and chemistry models.

  11. The legacy of pesticide pollution: An overlooked factor in current risk assessments of freshwater systems.

    PubMed

    Rasmussen, Jes J; Wiberg-Larsen, Peter; Baattrup-Pedersen, Annette; Cedergreen, Nina; McKnight, Ursula S; Kreuger, Jenny; Jacobsen, Dean; Kristensen, Esben A; Friberg, Nikolai

    2015-11-01

    We revealed a history of legacy pesticides in water and sediment samples from 19 small streams across an agricultural landscape. Dominant legacy compounds included organochlorine pesticides, such as DDT and lindane, the organophosphate chlorpyrifos and triazine herbicides such as terbutylazine and simazine which have long been banned in the EU. The highest concentrations of legacy pesticides were found in streams draining catchments with a large proportion of arable farmland suggesting that they originated from past agricultural applications. The sum of toxic units (SumTUD.magna) based on storm water samples from agriculturally impacted streams was significantly higher when legacy pesticides were included compared to when they were omitted. Legacy pesticides did not significantly change the predicted toxicity of water samples to algae or fish. However, pesticide concentrations in bed sediment and suspended sediment samples exceeded safety thresholds in 50% of the samples and the average contribution of legacy pesticides to the SumTUC.riparius was >90%. Our results suggest that legacy pesticides can be highly significant contributors to the current toxic exposure of stream biota, especially macroinvertebrate communities, and that those communities were primarily exposed to legacy pesticides via the sediment. Additionally, our results suggest that neglecting legacy pesticides in the risk assessment of pesticides in streams may severely underestimate the risk of ecological effects.

  12. Assessing the risks of trace elements in environmental materials under selected greenhouse vegetable production systems of China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yong; Huang, Biao; Hu, Wenyou; Weindorf, David C; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Niedermann, Silvana

    2014-02-01

    The risk assessment of trace elements of different environmental media in conventional and organic greenhouse vegetable production systems (CGVPS and OGVPS) can reveal the influence of different farming philosophy on the trace element accumulations and their effects on human health. These provide important basic data for the environmental protection and human health. This paper presents trace element accumulation characteristics of different land uses; reveals the difference of soil trace element accumulation both with and without consideration of background levels; compares the trace element uptake by main vegetables; and assesses the trace element risks of soils, vegetables, waters and agricultural inputs, using two selected greenhouse vegetable systems in Nanjing, China as examples. Results showed that greenhouse vegetable fields contained significant accumulations of Zn in CGVPS relative to rice-wheat rotation fields, open vegetable fields, and geochemical background levels, and this was the case for organic matter in OGVPS. The comparative analysis of the soil medium in two systems with consideration of geochemical background levels and evaluation of the geo-accumulation pollution index achieved a more reasonable comparison and accurate assessment relative to the direct comparison analysis and the evaluation of the Nemerow pollution index, respectively. According to the Chinese food safety standards and the value of the target hazard quotient or hazard index, trace element contents of vegetables were safe for local residents in both systems. However, the spatial distribution of the estimated hazard index for producers still presented certain specific hotspots which may cause potential risk for human health in CGVPS. The water was mainly influenced by nitrogen, especially for CGVPS, while the potential risk of Cd and Cu pollution came from sediments in OGVPS. The main inputs for trace elements were fertilizers which were relatively safe based on relevant

  13. Assessing the risks of trace elements in environmental materials under selected greenhouse vegetable production systems of China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yong; Huang, Biao; Hu, Wenyou; Weindorf, David C; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Niedermann, Silvana

    2014-02-01

    The risk assessment of trace elements of different environmental media in conventional and organic greenhouse vegetable production systems (CGVPS and OGVPS) can reveal the influence of different farming philosophy on the trace element accumulations and their effects on human health. These provide important basic data for the environmental protection and human health. This paper presents trace element accumulation characteristics of different land uses; reveals the difference of soil trace element accumulation both with and without consideration of background levels; compares the trace element uptake by main vegetables; and assesses the trace element risks of soils, vegetables, waters and agricultural inputs, using two selected greenhouse vegetable systems in Nanjing, China as examples. Results showed that greenhouse vegetable fields contained significant accumulations of Zn in CGVPS relative to rice-wheat rotation fields, open vegetable fields, and geochemical background levels, and this was the case for organic matter in OGVPS. The comparative analysis of the soil medium in two systems with consideration of geochemical background levels and evaluation of the geo-accumulation pollution index achieved a more reasonable comparison and accurate assessment relative to the direct comparison analysis and the evaluation of the Nemerow pollution index, respectively. According to the Chinese food safety standards and the value of the target hazard quotient or hazard index, trace element contents of vegetables were safe for local residents in both systems. However, the spatial distribution of the estimated hazard index for producers still presented certain specific hotspots which may cause potential risk for human health in CGVPS. The water was mainly influenced by nitrogen, especially for CGVPS, while the potential risk of Cd and Cu pollution came from sediments in OGVPS. The main inputs for trace elements were fertilizers which were relatively safe based on relevant

  14. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment.

  15. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. PMID:24913749

  16. Myeloid leukemia risk assessment and dynamics of the granulocytopoietic system in acutely and continuously irradiated humans: modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Smirnova, O A

    2015-05-01

    A dynamic modeling approach to the risk assessment of radiogenic myeloid leukemia is proposed. A basic tool of this approach is a biologically motivated mathematical model of the granulocytopoietic system, which is capable of predicting the dynamics of blood granulocytes and bone marrow granulocytopoietic cells in acutely and chronically irradiated humans. The performed modeling studies revealed that the dose dependence of the scaled maximal concentration of bone marrow granulocytopoietic cells with radiation-induced changes, which make a cell premalignant, and the dose dependence of the scaled integral of the concentration of these cells over the period of the response of the granulocytopoietic system to acute irradiation conform to the dose dependence of excess relative risk for myeloid leukemia among atomic bomb survivors in a wide range of doses and in a range of comparatively low doses, respectively. Additionally, the dose dependence of the scaled integral of the concentration of these cells over the period of the response of the granulocytopoietic system to continuous irradiation with the dose rate and durations, which were used in brachytherapy, conforms to the dose dependence of excess relative risk for leukemia among the respective groups of exposed patients. These modeling findings demonstrate the potential to use the proposed modeling approach for predicting the excess relative risk for myeloid leukemia among humans exposed to various radiation regimes. Obviously, this is especially important in the assessment of the risks for radiogenic myeloid leukemia among people residing in contaminated areas after an accident or explosion of a radiological device, among astronauts on long-term space missions, as well as among patients treated with radiotherapy. PMID:25811147

  17. Atmospheric Risk Assessment for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Allen; Vasavada, Ashwin; Cianciolo, Alicia; Barnes, Jeff; Tyler, Dan; Hinson, David; Lewis, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    In 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will pioneer the next generation of robotic Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems, by delivering the largest and most capable rover to date to the surface of Mars. As with previous Mars landers, atmospheric conditions during entry, descent, and landing directly impact the performance of MSL's EDL system. While the vehicle's novel guided entry system allows it to "fly out" a range of atmospheric uncertainties, its trajectory through the atmosphere creates a variety of atmospheric sensitivities not present on previous Mars entry systems and landers. Given the mission's stringent landing capability requirements, understanding the atmosphere state and spacecraft sensitivities takes on heightened importance. MSL's guided entry trajectory differs significantly from recent Mars landers and includes events that generate different atmospheric sensitivities than past missions. The existence of these sensitivities and general advancement in the state of Mars atmospheric knowledge has led the MSL team to employ new atmosphere modeling techniques in addition to past practices. A joint EDL engineering and Mars atmosphere science and modeling team has been created to identify the key system sensitivities, gather available atmospheric data sets, develop relevant atmosphere models, and formulate methods to integrate atmosphere information into EDL performance assessments. The team consists of EDL engineers, project science staff, and Mars atmospheric scientists from a variety of institutions. This paper provides an overview of the system performance sensitivities that have driven the atmosphere modeling approach, discusses the atmosphere data sets and models employed by the team as a result of the identified sensitivities, and introduces the tools used to translate atmospheric knowledge into quantitative EDL performance assessments.

  18. Environmental radiation: risk benchmarks or benchmarking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Valverde, L James; Vogel, John T; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    In the wake of the compound March 2011 nuclear disaster at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan, international public dialogue has repeatedly turned to questions of the accuracy of current risk assessment processes to assess nuclear risks and the adequacy of existing regulatory risk thresholds to protect us from nuclear harm. We confront these issues with an emphasis on learning from the incident in Japan for future US policy discussions. Without delving into a broader philosophical discussion of the general social acceptance of the risk, the relative adequacy of existing US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk thresholds is assessed in comparison with the risk thresholds of federal agencies not currently under heightened public scrutiny. Existing NRC thresholds are found to be among the most conservative in the comparison, suggesting that the agency's current regulatory framework is consistent with larger societal ideals. In turning to risk assessment methodologies, the disaster in Japan does indicate room for growth. Emerging lessons seem to indicate an opportunity to enhance resilience through systemic levels of risk aggregation. Specifically, we believe bringing systemic reasoning to the risk management process requires a framework that (i) is able to represent risk-based knowledge and information about a panoply of threats; (ii) provides a systemic understanding (and representation) of the natural and built environments of interest and their dependencies; and (iii) allows for the rational and coherent valuation of a range of outcome variables of interest, both tangible and intangible. Rather than revisiting the thresholds themselves, we see the goal of future nuclear risk management in adopting and implementing risk assessment techniques that systemically evaluate large-scale socio-technical systems with a view toward enhancing resilience and minimizing the potential for surprise. PMID:21608107

  19. Pathway Aggregation in the Risk Assessment of Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) of Nuclear Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Aldemir, Tunc; Denning, Richard; Catalyurek, Umit; Yilmaz, Alper; Yue, Meng; Cheng, Lap-Yan

    2015-01-23

    The framework for Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR & PP) evaluation is to define a set of challenges, to obtain the system responses, and to assess the outcomes. The assessment of outcomes heavily relies on pathways, defined as sequences of events or actions that could potentially be followed by a State or a group of individuals in order to achieve a proliferation objective, with the defined threats as initiating events. There may be large number of segments connecting pathway stages (e.g. acquisition, processing, and fabrication for PR) which can lead to even larger number of pathways or scenarios through possible different combinations of segment connections, each with associated probabilities contributing to the overall risk. Clustering of these scenarios in specified stage attribute intervals is important for their tractable analysis and outcome assessment. A software tool for scenario generation and clustering (OSUPR) is developed that utilizes the PRCALC code developed at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for scenario generation and the K- means, mean shift and adaptive mean shift algorithms as possible clustering schemes. The results of the study using the Example Sodium Fast Breeder as an example system show that clustering facilitates the probabilistic or deterministic analysis of scenarios to identify system vulnerabilities and communication of the major risk contributors to stakeholders. The results of the study also show that the mean shift algorithm has the most potential for assisting the analysis of the scenarios generated by PRCALC.

  20. Ecological risk assessment of the benthic invertebrate community of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, D.; Suter, G.; Barnthouse, L.; Efroymson, R.; Field, J.; Gonzalez, A.

    1995-12-31

    The CERCLA remedial investigation for the Clinch River/Poplar Creek included the benthic invertebrate community as an endpoint. The assessment endpoint was defined as a 20% reduction in species richness or abundance of the benthic invertebrate community in the Poplar Creek embayment or in any of three reaches of the Clinch River. Screening of chemical concentrations in sediment and pore water against benchmarks determined that 38 chemicals were contaminants of potential ecological concern (COPECs). Pore water COPECs were limited to fifteen metals, benzoic acid, and bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate. Many COPEC concentrations exceeded benchmarks by two to three orders of magnitude. Mercury was the primary sediment COPEC, although PCBs, PAHs, and other metals were also potentially toxic. Comparison of the distributions of COPEC concentrations with the distributions of literature toxicity values indicated widespread toxicity of several COPECs. Sediment toxicity tests indicated that a few sediment samples were toxic, but in general very little toxicity and no clear spatial trends were observed. Whole sediment tests were more sensitive than pore water tests. This may indicate that sediment-associated contaminants contribute more to risks. The benthic invertebrate community data were evaluated using canonical discriminant analyses. Communities in the Operable Unit (OU) were less diverse than in lower Tennessee Valley mainstem reservoirs, but similar to other upper valley reservoir communities. Abundance and taxa richness were reduced at some sites, but were not consistently reflective of contaminant sources. Decreased taxa richness and abundance in upper Poplar Creek may indicate contaminant sources upstream of the OU. These conflicting results are a challenge to ecological risk characterization based on weight-of-evidence. The process of weighing the evidence will be presented.

  1. Establishment of a bioassay system for cancer risk assessment in energy technology

    SciTech Connect

    Ts'o, P.O.P.; Bruce, S.A.; Brown, A.

    1983-09-01

    Separate abstracts were prepared for 20 papers in this report. For several years the Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), has supported a research program aimed at developing new experimental approaches for the improvement of cancer risk assessments. The central issue is to overcome the organizational, species and other barriers that make it difficult to extrapolate laboratory-based data to predict risk to man. Most of the participants at the meeting are involved in research aimed at understanding the mechanism(s) of chemical carcinogenesis. Complex mixtures of chemicals are associated with many energy technologies. DOE's initial program emphasis focused on semi-applied research aimed at quantitative evaluation of carcinogenic activity of complex materials. Since much progress has been made in DOE integrated technology-specific chemical-biological characterization studies, the number and kinds of chemicals of concern has been reduced to a relatively few well-defined classes. Although the classes of compounds seem to be unique to some of the synfuel technologies, they are quite similar to compounds of general interest, for example, poly-nuclear aromatic hydrocarbons. Special emphasis was placed on molecular and cellular dosimetry as one of the key requirements for quantitative comparison of effects at the cell level in vivo and in vitro. Although it is relatively easy to measure cell, tissue, organ and whole organism doses associated with radiation exposures, we are just learning how to do this for chemical agents. Several methods have been developed in the past several years which can be used.

  2. Environmental risk assessment on capsaicin used as active substance for antifouling system on ships.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianbing; Shi, Ting; Yang, Xiaoling; Han, Wenya; Zhou, Yunrui

    2014-06-01

    Biodegradation experiments were carried out with capsaicin to evaluate its degradability. The results show that capsaicin was readily biodegradable under aerobic conditions. The values of Kow and the calculated bioconcentration factor indicate that capsaicin have a low potential for bioconcentration. The fish acute toxicity tests conducted with Brachydanio rerio show LC50 for capsaicin was 5.98 mg L(-1). The tests of alga growth inhibition conducted with Selenastrum capricornutum suggest EC50 for capsaicin was 114 mg L(-1). The calculated PNEC (Predicted No Effect Concentration) was 4.9×10(-4) mg L(-1). The average PEC (Predicted Environmental Concentration) for OECD-EU commercial harbor and marina were 3.99×10(-6) and 2.49×10(-5) mg L(-1), respectively. These indicate that the PEC was much less than the PNEC for capsaicin. The low Kp value of capsaicin suggests the data about the risk of capsaicin to sediment organisms can be waived. According to the results from the analysis of the degradation, bioaccumulation, toxicity and accumulation in sediment, it can be concluded that capsaicin used as active substance for antifouling system on ships poses relatively low risk to marine environment.

  3. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  4. Development of a Software Framework for System-Level Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, R.

    2013-02-28

    The overall purpose of this project was to identify, evaluate, select, develop, and test a suite of enhancements to the GoldSim software program, in order to make it a better tool for use in support of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) projects. The GoldSim software is a foundational tool used by scientists at NETL and at other laboratories and research institutions to evaluate system-level risks of proposed CCS projects. The primary product of the project was a series of successively improved versions of the GoldSim software, supported by an extensive User’s Guide. All of the enhancements were tested by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and several of the enhancements have already been incorporated into the CO{sub 2}-PENS sequestration model.

  5. Guide for ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    Ecological risk assessment evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. Ecological risk assessment provides a critical element for environmental decision making by giving risk managers an approach for considering available scientific information along with the other factors they need to consider (e.g., social, legal, political, or economic) in selecting a course of action. The primary audience for this document is risk assessors and risk managers at EPA, although these Guidelines also may be useful to others outside the Agency.

  6. NASA's Risk Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  7. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  8. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factor (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis

  9. Ecological risk assessment of the fish community of the Clinch River/Poplar Creek system

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, G.; Barnthouse, L.; Efroymson, R.; Jaeger, H.; Beauchamp, J.

    1995-12-31

    The CERCLA remedial investigation for the Clinch River/Poplar Creek included the fish community as an endpoint. The assessment endpoint was defined as a 20% reduction in the species richness or abundance of the fish community in the Poplar Creek embayment or in any of three reaches of the Clinch River. Screening of chemicals in water against benchmarks determined that Ag, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Zn, PCBs, and bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate were contaminants of potential ecological concern (COPECs). Comparison of the distributions of COPEC concentrations with the distributions of literature toxicity values indicated that none of the COPECs was routinely toxic but episodic concentrations (< 10% of the distribution) of some COPECs were in the toxic range. Aqueous toxicity tests gave unclear results except for regularly high lethality to fish embryos in Poplar Creek. Bioindicators analysis found elevated histopathologies and disrupted reproductive indicators in Centrarchids from Poplar Creek, but their implications for the community are unclear. Body burdens of PCBs in some channel catfish exceeded levels associated with sublethal effects on that species in the laboratory. Electrofishing and gill netting found that the fish community of Poplar Creek had low species number and abundance, but habitat quality was also low. These mixed results present a challenge to ecological risk characterization based on weight-of-evidence. The process of weighing the evidence will be presented.

  10. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  11. Health risk assessment of heavy metals in soil-plant system amended with biogas slurry in Taihu basin, China.

    PubMed

    Bian, Bo; Lin, Cheng; Lv, Lin

    2016-09-01

    Biogas slurry is a product of anaerobic digestion of manure that has been widely used as a soil fertilizer. Although the use for soil fertilizer is a cost-effective solution, it has been found that repeated use of biogas slurry that contains high heavy metal contents can cause pollution to the soil-plant system and risk to human health. The objective of this study was to investigate effects of biogas slurry on the soil-plant system and the human health. We analyzed the heavy metal concentrations (including As, Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr and Cd) in 106 soil samples and 58 plant samples in a farmland amended with biogas slurry in Taihu basin, China. Based on the test results, we assessed the potential human health risk when biogas slurry containing heavy metals was used as a soil fertilizer. The test results indicated that the Cd and Pb concentrations in soils exceeded the contamination limits and Cd exhibited the highest soil-to-root migration potential. Among the 11 plants analyzed, Kalimeris indica had the highest heavy metal absorption capacity. The leafy vegetables showed higher uptake of heavy metals than non-leafy vegetables. The non-carcinogenic risks mainly resulted from As, Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn through plant ingestion exposure. The integrated carcinogenic risks were associated with Cr, As and Cd in which Cr showed the highest risk while Cd showed the lowest risk. Among all the heavy metals analyzed, As and Cd appeared to have a lifetime health threat, which thus should be attenuated during production of biogas slurry to mitigate the heavy metal contamination.

  12. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  13. Development of a site-specific Ecological Risk Assessment for contaminated sites: part II. A multi-criteria based system for the selection of bioavailability assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Semenzin, Elena; Critto, Andrea; Carlon, Claudio; Rutgers, Michiel; Marcomini, Antonio

    2007-06-15

    A comparison procedure based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and expert judgment was developed in order to allow the comparison of bioavailability tests to implement the chemical Line of Evidence (LoE) within a TRIAD based site-specific Ecological Risk Assessment framework including three tires of investigation. The proposed methodology was included in the Module 1 of the Decision Support System DSS-ERAMANIA and the obtained rank supported the selection of a suitable set of available tests to be applied to the case study. A simplified application of the proposed procedure is described and results obtained by the system software are discussed. PMID:17434575

  14. SERAFM: AN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR EVALUATING WILDLIFE EXPOSURE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH MERCURY-CONTAMINATED SEDIMENT IN LAKE AND RIVER SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A spreadsheet model, SERAFM, Spreadsheet-based Ecological Risk Assessment for the Fate of Mercury, was developed that can be used as a risk assessment tool for mercury contaminated ecosystems. In this tool, process-based understanding of the chemical, physical, and biological pro...

  15. Improving ecological risk assessment of persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals by using an integrated modeling system - An example assessing chloroparaffins in riverine environments.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chemical risk assessment (CRA) is primarily carried out at the screening level relying on empirical relationships between chemical properties and tested toxicity effects. Ultimately, risk to aquatic ecosystems is strongly dependent on actual exposure, which depends on chemical pr...

  16. The assessment of risk management systems for patients on Warrants of the Lieutenant Governor in Ontario psychiatric hospitals.

    PubMed

    McKerrow, W

    1989-01-01

    An assessment of risk management systems for patients on Warrants of the Lieutenant Governor in the provincial psychiatric hospitals was conducted. The assessment revealed that, to date, with some exceptions, the system has coped reasonably well. However, with a present count of over 400, and the ever increasing number of patients on warrants, there is a pressing need to improve the overall coordination of the system. The numbers, types and location of beds required to serve the system must be reviewed. Staff needs and training must be addressed. Increased numbers of coordinated research studies and improved information systems are required. System-wide policies and procedures for releasing information to policy, employers and home operators are necessary. As well, there must be a consistent approach in dealing with potential abuse of alcohol and non-prescribed drugs. Systems for authorizing and documenting patient privileges can be improved in some hospitals. A set of guidelines for interpreting terms and conditions of warrants is necessary. Lastly, information for staff treating patients on warrants should be developed and distributed.

  17. Next Generation Risk Assessment: Incorporation of Recent Advances in Molecular, Computational, and Systems Biology (External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the Next Generation of <span class=Risk Assessment (External Review Draft)" vspace = "5" hspace="5" align="right" border="1" /> EPA is releasing a draft report "Next Generation Risk Assessment: I...

  18. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  19. Results of research on development of an intellectual information system of bankruptcy risk assessment of the enterprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Telipenko, E.; Chernysheva, T.; Zakharova, A.; Dumchev, A.

    2015-10-01

    The article represents research results about the knowledge base development for the intellectual information system for the bankruptcy risk assessment of the enterprise. It is described the process analysis of the knowledge base development; the main process stages, some problems and their solutions are given. The article introduces the connectionist model for the bankruptcy risk assessment based on the analysis of industrial enterprise financial accounting. The basis for this connectionist model is a three-layer perceptron with the back propagation of error algorithm. The knowledge base for the intellectual information system consists of processed information and the processing operation method represented as the connectionist model. The article represents the structure of the intellectual information system, the knowledge base, and the information processing algorithm for neural network training. The paper shows mean values of 10 indexes for industrial enterprises; with the help of them it is possible to carry out a financial analysis of industrial enterprises and identify correctly the current situation for well-timed managerial decisions. Results are given about neural network testing on the data of both bankrupt and financially strong enterprises, which were not included into training and test sets.

  20. 75 FR 82387 - Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-30

    ... robust system for chemical risk assessment by incorporating new knowledge about molecular system biology... molecular systems biology, the advent of several recent reports from the National Research Council,...

  1. Degrees of connectivity: Systems model for upstream risk assessment and mitigation.

    PubMed

    Gambatese, John; AlOmari, Kasim

    2016-08-01

    There is growing recognition that in order to further improve safety performance, attention needs to be given beyond the immediate working conditions and worker actions. A systems approach to construction safety enables considering: multiple project elements simultaneously; connections between different elements; and all system elements affected by safety risk. This paper describes recent and current research to conceptualize a typical building project in terms of connections between workers, activities, and design elements, and to verify and analyze impacts of the design and worker interactions on worker safety. Prior research provides the basis for a network tying the design elements, construction activities, and work crews on a typical building project together along with the extent of interaction between each of the system elements in terms of safety. In conjunction with this systems approach, the researchers propose a concept for viewing and managing construction safety through four different types of connections, or "degrees of connectivity," between the different workers, activities, and design elements in the system. The degrees of connectivity are defined as: interacting with the design element during its construction (DoC #1); interacting with the design element in its final form to attach another component to it (DoC #2) or by working in the vicinity of it (DoC #3); and indirectly interacting with the design element through another worker (DoC #4). To support and verify the presence of the concept in practice, the researchers conducted a survey of construction personnel. The survey results confirm that the four different degrees of connectivity are present and felt during construction operations, and indicate that attention should be given to all design elements, activities, and workers to which a worker is "connected". According to the survey respondents, DoC's #1 and #2 are recognized as the most widely present on construction sites. Eighty percent of

  2. Risk and Risk Assessment in Environmental Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiras, Daniel D.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)

  3. NASA's Risk Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  4. Heart health risk assessment system: a nonintrusive proposal using ontologies and expert rules.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Valverde, Teresa; Muñoz, Andrés; Arcas, Francisco; Bueno-Crespo, Andrés; Caballero, Alberto

    2014-01-01

    According to the World Health Organization, the world's leading cause of death is heart disease, with nearly two million deaths per year. Although some factors are not possible to change, there are some keys that help to prevent heart diseases. One of the most important keys is to keep an active daily life, with moderate exercise. However, deciding what a moderate exercise is or when a slightly abnormal heart rate value is a risk depends on the person and the activity. In this paper we propose a context-aware system that is able to determine the activity the person is performing in an unobtrusive way. Then, we have defined ontology to represent the available knowledge about the person (biometric data, fitness status, medical information, etc.) and her current activity (level of intensity, heart rate recommended for that activity, etc.). With such knowledge, a set of expert rules based on this ontology are involved in a reasoning process to infer levels of alerts or suggestions for the users when the intensity of the activity is detected as dangerous for her health. We show how this approach can be accomplished by using only everyday devices such as a smartphone and a smartwatch.

  5. Heart Health Risk Assessment System: A Nonintrusive Proposal Using Ontologies and Expert Rules

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    According to the World Health Organization, the world's leading cause of death is heart disease, with nearly two million deaths per year. Although some factors are not possible to change, there are some keys that help to prevent heart diseases. One of the most important keys is to keep an active daily life, with moderate exercise. However, deciding what a moderate exercise is or when a slightly abnormal heart rate value is a risk depends on the person and the activity. In this paper we propose a context-aware system that is able to determine the activity the person is performing in an unobtrusive way. Then, we have defined ontology to represent the available knowledge about the person (biometric data, fitness status, medical information, etc.) and her current activity (level of intensity, heart rate recommended for that activity, etc.). With such knowledge, a set of expert rules based on this ontology are involved in a reasoning process to infer levels of alerts or suggestions for the users when the intensity of the activity is detected as dangerous for her health. We show how this approach can be accomplished by using only everyday devices such as a smartphone and a smartwatch. PMID:25045715

  6. The Development of Improved Risk Assessment Methods for Use in Industrial Environmental Management Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Manners, T.K.

    2006-07-01

    Industrial sites that store or use chemicals are controlled in the UK under the COMAH (Control Of Major Accident Hazards) Regulations 1999 [1] based on their holdings of 'Dangerous Substances'. The COMAH Regulations [1] came into force in 1999 and are the UK's response to the European Union's Seveso II Directive. The purpose of these Regulations [1] is to: - Identify Major Accident Hazards (MAH); - Ensure that control measures are in place to prevent a MAH; - Ensure that mitigatory measures are in place to limit effects if MAH do occur. The UK's Health and Safety Executive (HSE), and the Environment Agency (EA) jointly enforce the Regulations [1]. The fundamental requirement is given in the statement below, which is taken directly from the Regulations [1]. 'Every operator shall take all measures necessary to prevent major accidents and limit their consequences to persons and the environment'. This paper describes the development of a six-step screening methodology designed to identify Major Accidents To The Environment (MATTE) and improved consequence definitions that can be used in risk matrices to define the severity of an environmental fault. The method has been designed to be compatible with existing Environmental Management Systems (EMS) used in the chemical and nuclear industry. (authors)

  7. Outcomes of a systems-level intervention offering breast cancer risk assessments to low-income underserved women.

    PubMed

    Mays, Darren; Sharff, McKane E; DeMarco, Tiffani A; Williams, Bernice; Beck, Beth; Sheppard, Vanessa B; Peshkin, Beth N; Eng-Wong, Jennifer; Tercyak, Kenneth P

    2012-09-01

    Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer risk assessments (CRAs) are underutilized by low-income and racial/ethnic minority women, potentially exacerbating cancer-related disparities observed within these populations. We deployed and evaluated a systems-level intervention designed to identify patients potentially at-risk for hereditary breast/ovarian cancer, refer them for CRAs, and facilitate CRA utilization at an urban community-based breast health care center. Cancer family history forms were completed by patients seen at the center during an 18-month period and reviewed by staff for CRA eligibility against published referral criteria. A patient navigator educated eligible patients about the benefits of CRA, navigating interested patients to this service. CRA-specific patient interest and utilization outcomes are reported. In total, 94.7 % of all patients (n = 2,436) completed forms and 65 patients (2.7 %) met CRA eligibility criteria. Most eligible patients (72.3 %) were interested in CRA. Interested patients had a greater risk for hereditary breast/ovarian cancer (i.e., more affected relatives, greater objective risk scores) than uninterested patients: 57.4 % scheduled a CRA appointment and 51.9 % of scheduled patients utilized CRAs. Patients scheduling a CRA were contacted in less time and required fewer follow-up contacts by the patient navigator, and were more likely to be African American, than those who declined a CRA or were lost to follow-up (all p's ≤ .05). The systems-level intervention successfully identified patients eligible for CRA and linked interested and at-risk patients with CRA resources. More intensive patient navigation addressing the unique barriers encountered within this population may be required to enhance utilization. PMID:22711611

  8. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  9. Risk assessment in international operations.

    PubMed

    Stricklin, Daniela L

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umeå has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently. PMID:18325560

  10. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  11. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  12. Caries management by risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2013-02-01

    Caries disease is multifactorial. Whether caries disease will be expressed and damage dental hard tissue is dependent on the patient's own unique make-up of pathogenic risk factors and protective factors. Objectives This manuscript will review the science of managing caries disease based on assessing caries risk. Methods The caries balance/imbalance model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult will illustrate how treatment options can be based on caries risk. Results Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply there is currently only one correct way this can be achieved, rather are used in this manuscript as examples only. Conclusions It is important to have the forms and protocols simple and easy to understand when implementing caries management by risk assessment into clinical practice. The science of CAMBRA based on the caries balance/imbalance model was reviewed and an example protocol was presented.

  13. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  14. Supplemental risk-assessment guidance for the Superfund program. Part 1. Guidance for Public-Health Risk Assessments. Part 2. Guidance for ecological Risk Assessments. Draft report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-06-01

    This guidance manual was developed to address the practical aspects and issues pertaining to the Superfund risk-assessment process for both public health and environment concerns. Part 1, Guidance for Public Health Risk Assessments, supplements the Superfund Public Health Evaluation Manual and Superfund Exposure Assessment Manual and the Endangerment Assessment Handbook. Explicit guidance on technical matters which should be followed in developing public health risk assessments for EPA Region 1. The guidance addresses hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and uncertainty/limitations. Part 2 of the manual, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessments, addresses the collection of site-specific data needed to support an ecological risk assessment, describes a framework for conducting the assessments, and provides several specific approaches for assessing risks to systems exposed to chemical contamination in different media.

  15. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  16. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  17. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  18. Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tedrow, Christine Atkins

    transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

  19. Making sense of Arctic maritime traffic using the Polar Operational Limits Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stoddard, M. A.; Etienne, L.; Fournier, M.; Pelot, R.; Beveridge, L.

    2016-04-01

    Maritime traffic volume in the Arctic is growing for several reasons: climate change is resulting in less ice in extent, duration, and thickness; economic drivers are inducing growth in resource extraction traffic, community size (affecting resupply) and adventure tourism. This dynamic situation, coupled with harsh weather, variable operating conditions, remoteness, and lack of straightforward emergency response options, demand robust risk management processes. The requirements for risk management for polar ship operations are specified in the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code). The goal of the Polar Code is to provide for safe ship operations and protection of the polar environment by addressing the risk present in polar waters. Risk management is supported by evidence-based models, including threat identification (types and frequency of hazards), exposure levels, and receptor characterization. Most of the information used to perform risk management in polar waters is attained in-situ, but increasingly is being augmented with open-access remote sensing information. In this paper we focus on the use of open-access historical ice charts as an integral part of northern navigation, especially for route planning and evaluation.

  20. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  1. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  2. An Assessment of Technical and Production Risks of Candidate Low-Cost Attitude/Heading Reference Systems(AHRS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yuchnovicz, Daniel; Burgess, Malcolm; Hammers, William

    1999-01-01

    This report provides an assessment of technical and production risks of candidate low-cost attitude/heading reference systems (AHRS) for use in the Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) airplanes. A low-cost AHRS is a key component of modem "glass cockpit" flight displays for General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The technical capabilities of several candidate low-cost AHRS were examined and described along with the technical issues involved with using all solid-state components for attitude measurement. An economic model was developed which describes the expected profit, rate of return, and volume requirements for the manufacture of low-cost AHRS for GA aircraft in the 2000 to 2020 time frame. The model is the result of interviews with GA airframe manufacturers, avionics manufacturers and historical analysis of avionics of similar complexity. The model shows that a manufacturer will break even after three years of AHRS production, realizing an 18 percent rate of return (23 percent profit) on an investment of $3.5M over the 20 year period. A start-up production estimate showed costs of $6-12M for a new company to build and certify an AHRS from scratch, considered to be a high-risk proposition, versus $0.25-0.75M for an experienced avionics manufacturer to manufacture a design under license, a low-risk proposition.

  3. USEPA’s Land‐Based Materials Management Exposure and Risk Assessment Tool System

    EPA Science Inventory

    It is recognized that some kinds of 'waste' materials can in fact be reused as input materials for making safe products that benefit society. RIMM (Risk-Informed Materials Management) provides an integrated data gathering and analysis capability to enable scientifically rigorous ...

  4. Risk assessment of three fluoroquinolone antibiotics in the groundwater recharge system.

    PubMed

    Chen, Guoli; Liu, Xiang; Tartakevosky, Daniel; Li, Miao

    2016-11-01

    Three fluoroquinolone antibiotics agents (FQs) in groundwater and reclaimed water have been investigated in Changzhou and Beijing, China. The occurrence of ofloxacin (OFL), enrofloxacin (ENR) and norfloxacin (NOR) is in nanograms per liter and has 100% frequency. The concentration order of FQs in reclaimed water is NOR>OFL>ENR, whilst the order in groundwater is NOR>ENR>OFL. And then the single and mixture adsorption-desorption have been studied and showed that (i) silty clay loam has higher sorption capacity than loamy sand, (ii) competitive adsorption exists when the three selected FQs coexist, (iii) ENR has a significantly priority sorption to NOR, whilst OFL has a least sorption among the mixture, (iv) there is no significant difference between the desorption results of mixture and the indivdual compound in relatively low concentration, (v) the formed chemical bonds and the irreversible combination of adsorption point are the significant influential factors for explaining desorption hysteresis of the selected FQs. Based on the above study, transport model and risk quotient have been performed, and the calculated risk quotient reveals that: (i) the selected FQs risk order in reclaimed water is OFL>ENR>NOR, (ii) in groundwater, OFL and ENR pose a higher risk than NOR no matter whether considering the long time groundwater recharge. This study will help policy makers to decide which FQs need to be covered in the priority substance lists defined in legislative frameworks. PMID:27400060

  5. Field efficacy evaluation and post-treatment contamination risk assessment of an ultraviolet disinfection and safe storage system.

    PubMed

    Reygadas, Fermin; Gruber, Joshua S; Ray, Isha; Nelson, Kara L

    2015-11-15

    Inconsistent use of household water treatment and safe storage (HWTS) systems reduces their potential health benefits. Ultraviolet (UV) disinfection is more convenient than some existing HWTS systems, but it does not provide post-treatment residual disinfectant, which could leave drinking water vulnerable to recontamination. In this paper, using as-treated analyses, we report on the field efficacy of a UV disinfection system at improving household drinking water quality in rural Mexico. We further assess the risk of post-treatment contamination from the UV system, and develop a process-based model to better understand household risk factors for recontamination. This study was part of a larger cluster-randomized stepped wedge trial, and the results complement previously published population-level results of the intervention on diarrheal prevalence and water quality. Based on the presence of Escherichia coli (proportion of households with ≥ 1 E. coli/100 mL), we estimated a risk difference of -28.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): -33.9%, -22.1%) when comparing intervention to control households; -38.6% (CI: -48.9%, -28.2%) when comparing post- and pre-intervention results; and -37.1% (CI: -45.2%, -28.9%) when comparing UV disinfected water to alternatives within the household. We found substantial increases in post-treatment E. coli contamination when comparing samples from the UV system effluent (5.0%) to samples taken from the storage container (21.1%) and drinking glasses (26.0%). We found that improved household infrastructure, additional extractions from the storage container, additional time from when the storage container was filled, and increased experience of the UV system operator were associated with reductions in post-treatment contamination. Our results suggest that the UV system is efficacious at improving household water quality when used as intended. Promoting safe storage habits is essential for an effective UV system dissemination. The drinking

  6. Field efficacy evaluation and post-treatment contamination risk assessment of an ultraviolet disinfection and safe storage system.

    PubMed

    Reygadas, Fermin; Gruber, Joshua S; Ray, Isha; Nelson, Kara L

    2015-11-15

    Inconsistent use of household water treatment and safe storage (HWTS) systems reduces their potential health benefits. Ultraviolet (UV) disinfection is more convenient than some existing HWTS systems, but it does not provide post-treatment residual disinfectant, which could leave drinking water vulnerable to recontamination. In this paper, using as-treated analyses, we report on the field efficacy of a UV disinfection system at improving household drinking water quality in rural Mexico. We further assess the risk of post-treatment contamination from the UV system, and develop a process-based model to better understand household risk factors for recontamination. This study was part of a larger cluster-randomized stepped wedge trial, and the results complement previously published population-level results of the intervention on diarrheal prevalence and water quality. Based on the presence of Escherichia coli (proportion of households with ≥ 1 E. coli/100 mL), we estimated a risk difference of -28.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): -33.9%, -22.1%) when comparing intervention to control households; -38.6% (CI: -48.9%, -28.2%) when comparing post- and pre-intervention results; and -37.1% (CI: -45.2%, -28.9%) when comparing UV disinfected water to alternatives within the household. We found substantial increases in post-treatment E. coli contamination when comparing samples from the UV system effluent (5.0%) to samples taken from the storage container (21.1%) and drinking glasses (26.0%). We found that improved household infrastructure, additional extractions from the storage container, additional time from when the storage container was filled, and increased experience of the UV system operator were associated with reductions in post-treatment contamination. Our results suggest that the UV system is efficacious at improving household water quality when used as intended. Promoting safe storage habits is essential for an effective UV system dissemination. The drinking

  7. Risk assessment of sensitizing agents.

    PubMed

    Gerberick, G F

    1994-01-01

    This review describes an approach that has been used to assess the skin sensitization risk of new product ingredients prior to and after marketing. The risk assessment process utilizes a comparative toxicological approach in which data on the inherent toxicity of a material and the exposure to it through manufacturing or consumer use or foreseeable misuse are integrated and compared with data generated by 'benchmark' materials of similar chemistry or product application, or both. This approach has been valuable in providing an accurate assessment of skin sensitization potential and the basis for eventual safe marketing of a wide range of consumer household and personal care products and topical pharmaceuticals.

  8. Collision risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez Ortiz, N.; Belló Mora, M.; Graziano, M.; Pina Caballero, F.; Sánchez Pérez, J. M.; Klinkrad, H.

    2001-10-01

    Avoidance of near misses or collisions is required for almost all satellites on orbit, but it is of particular interest for manned missions and spacecraft at densely populated regions. In order to avoid these possible collisions, it is needed to determine a possible conjunction and its associated uncertainty. Two main constraints must be taken into account when a tool to forecast the collision risk of an object is being developed: the high number of objects in space and the accuracy of the catalogued object data. The number of objects on Earth orbit makes impossible to propagate all the catalogued objects, thus filtering and parallel processing techniques are presented. The accuracy of the catalogued object data and the propagation of the error over the time identify a position ellipsoid of error, whose behaviour has an important influence on some parameters on the filtering techniques and the way the collision probability is computed. Some collision probability methods are presented.

  9. An Assessment of Non-Communicable Diseases, Diabetes, and Related Risk Factors in the Territory of Guam: A Systems Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Gillan, James W; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).1 This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the US Territory of Guam and describes the burdens due to NCD, with an emphasis on diabetes; and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection, and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been an increase of 2.6% in the total population between 2000 and 2010. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors are associated with overweight and obesity. The leading causes of death include heart disease, cancer, and cerebrovascular accidents. Population surveys show that 9.1% of the adult population in 2009 reported being diagnosed with diabetes. Other data reports show that of the adults, 35.4% were overweight and 25.9% were obese; and among youth, 30% were overweight or obese. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, data, and support services to address NCDs and diabetes. There is no Territory-wide health plan to address the prevention and control of NCDs including diabetes. There are no common standards of care or policy and procedures that are used by all the various medical and health care providers. Based on these findings, priority issues and needs were identified for the administrative and clinical systems. PMID:23900408

  10. An assessment of non-communicable diseases, diabetes, and related risk factors in the Territory of Guam: a systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Ichiho, Henry M; Gillan, James W; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-05-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).1 This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the US Territory of Guam and describes the burdens due to NCD, with an emphasis on diabetes; and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection, and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been an increase of 2.6% in the total population between 2000 and 2010. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors are associated with overweight and obesity. The leading causes of death include heart disease, cancer, and cerebrovascular accidents. Population surveys show that 9.1% of the adult population in 2009 reported being diagnosed with diabetes. Other data reports show that of the adults, 35.4% were overweight and 25.9% were obese; and among youth, 30% were overweight or obese. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, data, and support services to address NCDs and diabetes. There is no Territory-wide health plan to address the prevention and control of NCDs including diabetes. There are no common standards of care or policy and procedures that are used by all the various medical and health care providers. Based on these findings, priority issues and needs were identified for the administrative and clinical systems.

  11. An assessment of non-communicable diseases, diabetes, and related risk factors in the Republic of Palau: a systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Ichiho, Henry M; Demei, Yorah; Kuartei, Stevenson; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-05-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).1 This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the Republic of Palau and describes the burden due to selected NCD (diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, chronic kidney disease); and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection, and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been a 7.1% increase in the population between 2000 and 2010. Significant shifts in the age groups show declines among children and young adults under 34 years of age and increases among adult residents over 45 years of age. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors are associated with overweight and obesity and subsequent NCD that play a significant role in the morbidity and mortality of the population. The leading causes of death include heart disease and cancer. A 2003 community household survey was conducted and 22.4% of them reported a history of diabetes in the household. A survey among Ministry of Health employees showed that 44% of the men and 47% of the women were overweight and 46% of the men and 42% of the women were obese. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, and support services to address these NCD. Priority issues and needs for the administrative and clinical systems were identified.

  12. Topics in cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Olin, S S; Neumann, D A; Foran, J A; Scarano, G J

    1997-01-01

    The estimation of carcinogenic risks from exposure to chemicals has become an integral part of the regulatory process in the United States within the past decade. With it have come considerable controversy and debate over the scientific merits and shortcomings of the methods and their impact on risk management decisions. In this paper we highlight selected topics of current interest in the debate. As an indication of the level of public concern, we note the major recent reports on risk assessment from the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's proposed substantial revisions to its Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. We identify and briefly frame several key scientific issues in cancer risk assessment, including the growing recognition of the importance of understanding the mode of action of carcinogenesis in experimental animals and in humans, the methodologies and challenges in quantitative extrapolation of cancer risks, and the question of how to assess and account for human variability in susceptibility to carcinogens. In addition, we discuss initiatives in progress that may fundamentally alter the carcinogenesis testing paradigm. PMID:9114281

  13. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  14. Accumulation, allocation, and risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil-Brassica chinensis system.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Juan; Fan, Shukai; Du, Xiaoming; Yang, Juncheng; Wang, Wenyan; Hou, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Farmland soil and leafy vegetables accumulate more polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in suburban sites. In this study, 13 sampling areas were selected from vegetable fields in the outskirts of Xi'an, the largest city in northwestern China. The similarity of PAH composition in soil and vegetation was investigated through principal components analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA), rather than discrimination of PAH congeners from various sources. The toxic equivalent quantity of PAHs in soil ranged from 7 to 202 μg/kg d.w., with an average of 41 μg/kg d.w., which exceeded the agricultural/horticultural soil acceptance criteria for New Zealand. However, the cancer risk level posed by combined direct ingestion, dermal contact, inhalation of soil particles, and inhalation of surface soil vapor met the rigorous international criteria (1 × 10(-6)). The concentration of total PAHs was (1052 ± 73) μg/kg d.w. in vegetation (mean ± standard error). The cancer risks posed by ingestion of vegetation ranged from 2×10-5 to 2 × 10(-4) with an average of 1.66 × 10(-4), which was higher than international excess lifetime risk limits for carcinogens (1 × 10(-4)). The geochemical indices indicated that the PAHs in soil and vegetables were mainly from vehicle and crude oil combustion. Both the total PAHs in vegetation and bioconcentration factor for total PAHs (the ratio of total PAHs in vegetation to total PAHs in soil) increased with increasing pH as well as decreasing sand in soil. The total variation in distribution of PAHs in vegetation explained by those in soil reached 98% in RDA, which was statistically significant based on Monte Carlo permutation. Common pollution source and notable effects of soil contamination on vegetation would result in highly similar distribution of PAHs in soil and vegetation. PMID:25679782

  15. Accumulation, Allocation, and Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Soil-Brassica chinensis System

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Juan; Fan, Shukai; Du, Xiaoming; Yang, Juncheng; Wang, Wenyan; Hou, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Farmland soil and leafy vegetables accumulate more polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in suburban sites. In this study, 13 sampling areas were selected from vegetable fields in the outskirts of Xi’an, the largest city in northwestern China. The similarity of PAH composition in soil and vegetation was investigated through principal components analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA), rather than discrimination of PAH congeners from various sources. The toxic equivalent quantity of PAHs in soil ranged from 7 to 202 μg/kg d.w., with an average of 41 μg/kg d.w., which exceeded the agricultural/horticultural soil acceptance criteria for New Zealand. However, the cancer risk level posed by combined direct ingestion, dermal contact, inhalation of soil particles, and inhalation of surface soil vapor met the rigorous international criteria (1×10−6). The concentration of total PAHs was (1052±73) μg/kg d.w. in vegetation (mean±standard error). The cancer risks posed by ingestion of vegetation ranged from 2×10−5 to 2×10−4 with an average of 1.66×10−4, which was higher than international excess lifetime risk limits for carcinogens (1×10−4). The geochemical indices indicated that the PAHs in soil and vegetables were mainly from vehicle and crude oil combustion. Both the total PAHs in vegetation and bioconcentration factor for total PAHs (the ratio of total PAHs in vegetation to total PAHs in soil) increased with increasing pH as well as decreasing sand in soil. The total variation in distribution of PAHs in vegetation explained by those in soil reached 98% in RDA, which was statistically significant based on Monte Carlo permutation. Common pollution source and notable effects of soil contamination on vegetation would result in highly similar distribution of PAHs in soil and vegetation. PMID:25679782

  16. Requirements based system risk modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steven; Feather, Martin

    2004-01-01

    The problem that we address in this paper is assessing the expected degree of success of the system or mission based on the degree to which each requirement is satisfied and the relative weight of the requirements. We assume a complete list of the requirements, the relevant risk elements and their probability of occurrence and the quantified effect of the risk elements on the requirements. In order to assess the degree to which each requirement is satisfied, we need to determine the effect of the various risk elements on the requirement.

  17. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:25321142

  18. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  19. RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM - INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The current problem in the United States is that the water infrastructure is aging and spending has not been adequate to repair, replace, or rehabilitate drinking water distribution systems and wastewater collection systems. The American Society of Civil Engineers Report Card in...

  20. Systemic risk measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerra, Solange Maria; Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés; de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach and banking sector multivariate density. We also apply network measures to analyze bank common risk exposure. The proposed measures aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. These indicators capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systemically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  2. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  3. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  4. Vulnerability And Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Durling, Jr., R L; Price, D E; Spero, K K

    2005-01-03

    For over ten years, the Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been a planning tool used by U.S. combatant commands for mission support planning against foreign programs engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). CAPS is endorsed by the Secretary of Defense as the preferred counterproliferation tool to be used by the nation's armed services. A sister system, the Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging CAPS expertise designed to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities is presented.

  5. Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Durling, R L; Price, D E; Spero, K K

    2005-06-06

    For over ten years, the Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been a planning tool used by U.S. combatant commands for mission support planning against foreign programs engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). CAPS is endorsed by the Secretary of Defense as the preferred counterproliferation tool to be used by the nation's armed services. A sister system, the Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging CAPS expertise designed to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities will be presented.

  6. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  7. Development of web-based services for a novel ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Y.; Manful, D. Y.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Li, Z.; Bao, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wesner, S.; Schubert, L.; Yang, L.; Hu, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust

  8. Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

    2010-05-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability

  9. Continuum of risk analysis methods to assess tillage system sustainability at the experimental plot level

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) methodology for ranking conventional and conservation tillage systems using 14 years (1990-2003) of economic budget data collected from 36 plots at the Iowa...

  10. Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Price, D E; Durling, R L

    2005-10-10

    The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's expertise in weapons systems and in sparse information analysis to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities will be presented.

  11. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects. PMID:15260335

  12. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  13. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  14. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  15. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  16. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  17. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  18. Intelligent Computing System for Reservoir Analysis and Risk Assessment of Red River Formation, Class Revisit

    SciTech Connect

    Sippel, Mark A.

    2002-09-24

    Integrated software was written that comprised the tool kit for the Intelligent Computing System (ICS). The software tools in ICS are for evaluating reservoir and hydrocarbon potential from various seismic, geologic and engineering data sets. The ICS tools provided a means for logical and consistent reservoir characterization. The tools can be broadly characterized as (1) clustering tools, (2) neural solvers, (3) multiple-linear regression, (4) entrapment-potential calculator and (5) combining tools. A flexible approach can be used with the ICS tools. They can be used separately or in a series to make predictions about a desired reservoir objective. The tools in ICS are primarily designed to correlate relationships between seismic information and data obtained from wells; however, it is possible to work with well data alone.

  19. INTELLIGENT COMPUTING SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE RED RIVER FORMATION

    SciTech Connect

    Mark A. Sippel; William C. Carrigan; Kenneth D. Luff; Lyn Canter

    2003-11-12

    Integrated software has been written that comprises the tool kit for the Intelligent Computing System (ICS). The software tools in ICS have been developed for characterization of reservoir properties and evaluation of hydrocarbon potential using a combination of inter-disciplinary data sources such as geophysical, geologic and engineering variables. The ICS tools provide a means for logical and consistent reservoir characterization and oil reserve estimates. The tools can be broadly characterized as (1) clustering tools, (2) neural solvers, (3) multiple-linear regression, (4) entrapment-potential calculator and (5) file utility tools. ICS tools are extremely flexible in their approach and use, and applicable to most geologic settings. The tools are primarily designed to correlate relationships between seismic information and engineering and geologic data obtained from wells, and to convert or translate seismic information into engineering and geologic terms or units. It is also possible to apply ICS in a simple framework that may include reservoir characterization using only engineering, seismic, or geologic data in the analysis. ICS tools were developed and tested using geophysical, geologic and engineering data obtained from an exploitation and development project involving the Red River Formation in Bowman County, North Dakota and Harding County, South Dakota. Data obtained from 3D seismic surveys, and 2D seismic lines encompassing nine prospective field areas were used in the analysis. The geologic setting of the Red River Formation in Bowman and Harding counties is that of a shallow-shelf, carbonate system. Present-day depth of the Red River formation is approximately 8000 to 10,000 ft below ground surface. This report summarizes production results from well demonstration activity, results of reservoir characterization of the Red River Formation at demonstration sites, descriptions of ICS tools and strategies for their application.

  20. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  1. INTELLIGENT COMPUTING SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE RED RIVER FORMATION

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth D. Luff

    2002-09-30

    Integrated software has been written that comprises the tool kit for the Intelligent Computing System (ICS). Luff Exploration Company is applying these tools for analysis of carbonate reservoirs in the southern Williston Basin. The integrated software programs are designed to be used by small team consisting of an engineer, geologist and geophysicist. The software tools are flexible and robust, allowing application in many environments for hydrocarbon reservoirs. Keystone elements of the software tools include clustering and neural-network techniques. The tools are used to transform seismic attribute data to reservoir characteristics such as storage (phi-h), probable oil-water contacts, structural depths and structural growth history. When these reservoir characteristics are combined with neural network or fuzzy logic solvers, they can provide a more complete description of the reservoir. This leads to better estimates of hydrocarbons in place, areal limits and potential for infill or step-out drilling. These tools were developed and tested using seismic, geologic and well data from the Red River Play in Bowman County, North Dakota and Harding County, South Dakota. The geologic setting for the Red River Formation is shallow-shelf carbonate at a depth from 8000 to 10,000 ft.

  2. INTELLIGENT COMPUTING SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE RED RIVER FORMATION

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth D. Luff

    2002-06-30

    Integrated software has been written that comprises the tool kit for the Intelligent Computing System (ICS). Luff Exploration Company is applying these tools for analysis of carbonate reservoirs in the southern Williston Basin. The integrated software programs are designed to be used by small team consisting of an engineer, geologist and geophysicist. The software tools are flexible and robust, allowing application in many environments for hydrocarbon reservoirs. Keystone elements of the software tools include clustering and neural-network techniques. The tools are used to transform seismic attribute data to reservoir characteristics such as storage (phi-h), probable oil-water contacts, structural depths and structural growth history. When these reservoir characteristics are combined with neural network or fuzzy logic solvers, they can provide a more complete description of the reservoir. This leads to better estimates of hydrocarbons in place, areal limits and potential for infill or step-out drilling. These tools were developed and tested using seismic, geologic and well data from the Red River Play in Bowman County, North Dakota and Harding County, South Dakota. The geologic setting for the Red River Formation is shallow-shelf carbonate at a depth from 8000 to 10,000 ft.

  3. A systematic review of publications assessing reliability and validity of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), 2004–2011

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In recent years response rates on telephone surveys have been declining. Rates for the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (BRFSS) have also declined, prompting the use of new methods of weighting and the inclusion of cell phone sampling frames. A number of scholars and researchers have conducted studies of the reliability and validity of the BRFSS estimates in the context of these changes. As the BRFSS makes changes in its methods of sampling and weighting, a review of reliability and validity studies of the BRFSS is needed. Methods In order to assess the reliability and validity of prevalence estimates taken from the BRFSS, scholarship published from 2004–2011 dealing with tests of reliability and validity of BRFSS measures was compiled and presented by topics of health risk behavior. Assessments of the quality of each publication were undertaken using a categorical rubric. Higher rankings were achieved by authors who conducted reliability tests using repeated test/retest measures, or who conducted tests using multiple samples. A similar rubric was used to rank validity assessments. Validity tests which compared the BRFSS to physical measures were ranked higher than those comparing the BRFSS to other self-reported data. Literature which undertook more sophisticated statistical comparisons was also ranked higher. Results Overall findings indicated that BRFSS prevalence rates were comparable to other national surveys which rely on self-reports, although specific differences are noted for some categories of response. BRFSS prevalence rates were less similar to surveys which utilize physical measures in addition to self-reported data. There is very little research on reliability and validity for some health topics, but a great deal of information supporting the validity of the BRFSS data for others. Conclusions Limitations of the examination of the BRFSS were due to question differences among surveys used as comparisons, as well as mode of data

  4. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  6. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  7. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  8. A wearable system to assess risk for anterior cruciate ligament injury during jump landing: measurements of temporal events, jump height, and sagittal plane kinematics.

    PubMed

    Dowling, Ariel V; Favre, Julien; Andriacchi, Thomas P

    2011-07-01

    The incidence of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury remains high, and there is a need for simple, cost effective methods to identify athletes at a higher risk for ACL injury. Wearable measurement systems offer potential methods to assess the risk of ACL injury during jumping tasks. The objective of this study was to assess the capacity of a wearable inertial-based system to evaluate ACL injury risk during jumping tasks. The system accuracy for measuring temporal events (initial contact, toe-off), jump height, and sagittal plane angles (knee, trunk) was assessed by comparing results obtained with the wearable system to simultaneous measurements obtained with a marker-based optoelectronic reference system. Thirty-eight healthy participants (20 male and 18 female) performed drop jumps with bilateral and unilateral support landing. The mean differences between the temporal events obtained with both systems were below 5 ms, and the precisions were below 24 ms. The mean jump heights measured with both systems differed by less than 1 mm, and the associations (Pearson correlation coefficients) were above 0.9. For the discrete angle parameters, there was an average association of 0.91 and precision of 3.5° for the knee flexion angle and an association of 0.77 and precision of 5.5° for the trunk lean. The results based on the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) also demonstrated that the proposed wearable system could identify movements at higher risk for ACL injury. The area under the ROC plots was between 0.89 and 0.99 for the knee flexion angle and between 0.83 and 0.95 for the trunk lean. The wearable system demonstrated good concurrent validity with marker-based measurements and good discriminative performance in terms of the known risk factors for ACL injury. This study suggests that a wearable system could be a simple cost-effective tool for conducting risk screening or for providing focused feedback. PMID:21823747

  9. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  10. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  11. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    SciTech Connect

    Tuxen, L.

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  12. Comparative assessment of phthalate removal and risk in biological wastewater treatment systems of developing countries and small communities.

    PubMed

    Gani, Khalid Muzamil; Kazmi, Absar Ahmad

    2016-11-01

    Phthalates are widely used in plastic and personnel care products. Being non-steroid endocrine disrupting compounds, their exposure have toxic effects on aquatic life and human health. The aim of this study was a comparative assessment of their fate and risk in full scale wastewater treatment along with influence of seasonal variations. Four priority phthalates, Diethylphthalate (DEP), Dibutylphthalate (DBP), Benzylbutyl phthalate (BBP) and Diethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) were chosen for this study and wastewater treatment plants investigated were designed as nutrient removal based sequencing batch reactor (SBR), conventional activated sludge process (ASP) and up flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) with polishing pond. Results showed that the main removal mechanism of phthalates was biotransformation with removal contribution of 74% in SBR, 65% in conventional ASP and 37% in UASB. Overall removal of phthalates was maximum in the treatment combination of UASB and pond (83%) followed by SBR (80%) and conventional ASP (74%). Seasonal influences on occurrence, removal and risk of these phthalates were also studied. The concentration of DEP, DBP and DEHP in untreated wastewater increased by 2, 7 and 2μg/L, respectively in summer. However in sludge, only large molecular weight phthalates BBP and DEHP increased in winter by 3mg/kg and 12mg/kg, respectively. Seasonal variations in removal of phthalates were discrepant in each process with better removal during summer. Risk assessment of phthalates to aquatic life showed that there is no potential risk of DEP, DBP and BBP from effluents of treatment plants however risk quotient of DEHP was in the range of 27-73 in both seasons which indicate probable risk to aquatic organisms. Phthalate risk to human beings estimated by daily intake of phthalates was in the range of 0.3±0.1 to 20±0.7ng/kg/d and far below their respective reference dosages, demonstrating the potential of these treatment plants to reduce the risk of

  13. Comparative assessment of phthalate removal and risk in biological wastewater treatment systems of developing countries and small communities.

    PubMed

    Gani, Khalid Muzamil; Kazmi, Absar Ahmad

    2016-11-01

    Phthalates are widely used in plastic and personnel care products. Being non-steroid endocrine disrupting compounds, their exposure have toxic effects on aquatic life and human health. The aim of this study was a comparative assessment of their fate and risk in full scale wastewater treatment along with influence of seasonal variations. Four priority phthalates, Diethylphthalate (DEP), Dibutylphthalate (DBP), Benzylbutyl phthalate (BBP) and Diethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) were chosen for this study and wastewater treatment plants investigated were designed as nutrient removal based sequencing batch reactor (SBR), conventional activated sludge process (ASP) and up flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) with polishing pond. Results showed that the main removal mechanism of phthalates was biotransformation with removal contribution of 74% in SBR, 65% in conventional ASP and 37% in UASB. Overall removal of phthalates was maximum in the treatment combination of UASB and pond (83%) followed by SBR (80%) and conventional ASP (74%). Seasonal influences on occurrence, removal and risk of these phthalates were also studied. The concentration of DEP, DBP and DEHP in untreated wastewater increased by 2, 7 and 2μg/L, respectively in summer. However in sludge, only large molecular weight phthalates BBP and DEHP increased in winter by 3mg/kg and 12mg/kg, respectively. Seasonal variations in removal of phthalates were discrepant in each process with better removal during summer. Risk assessment of phthalates to aquatic life showed that there is no potential risk of DEP, DBP and BBP from effluents of treatment plants however risk quotient of DEHP was in the range of 27-73 in both seasons which indicate probable risk to aquatic organisms. Phthalate risk to human beings estimated by daily intake of phthalates was in the range of 0.3±0.1 to 20±0.7ng/kg/d and far below their respective reference dosages, demonstrating the potential of these treatment plants to reduce the risk of

  14. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  15. A risk assessment of multiple use of an aerosol system compared with single use for lung ventilation scans.

    PubMed

    Belton, I P; Burford, D; Early, M Y

    1997-07-01

    Over 300 99Tc(m)-DTPA aerosol lung ventilation scans are performed at Leicester Royal Infirmary each year. Current practice is to re-use the nebulizer circuits up to five times over a maximum of 1 week. Following a visit from the hospital infection control team, this practice was questioned and, therefore, a risk assessment was carried out. This compared the risks of multiple use of ventilation circuits with single use. A survey was also carried out to try and establish current practice in other departments. The risk assesment showed that both single and multiple use of nebulizer circuits can have a high risk. The risks associated with the former were radiation safety and/or financial, and the risk with the latter was cross-infection. The survey showed that multiple use is certainly common practice within the UK. Therefore, in coming to a decision on which practice to adopt, these risks must be considered most carefully in the context of the local environment.

  16. A computer-aided system for malignancy risk assessment of nodules in thyroid US images based on boundary features.

    PubMed

    Savelonas, Michalis; Maroulis, Dimitris; Sangriotis, Manolis

    2009-10-01

    In this paper, a novel computer-based approach is proposed for malignancy risk assessment of thyroid nodules in ultrasound images. The proposed approach is based on boundary features and is motivated by the correlation which has been addressed in medical literature between nodule boundary irregularity and malignancy risk. In addition, local echogenicity variance is utilized so as to incorporate information associated with local echogenicity distribution within nodule boundary neighborhood. Such information is valuable for the discrimination of high-risk nodules with blurred boundaries from medium-risk nodules with regular boundaries. Analysis of variance is performed, indicating that each boundary feature under study provides statistically significant information for the discrimination of thyroid nodules in ultrasound images, in terms of malignancy risk. k-nearest neighbor and support vector machine classifiers are employed for the classification tasks, utilizing feature vectors derived from all combinations of features under study. The classification results are evaluated with the use of the receiver operating characteristic. It is derived that the proposed approach is capable of discriminating between medium-risk and high-risk nodules, obtaining an area under curve, which reaches 0.95.

  17. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  18. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  19. Disability and work: risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Meusz, C

    Recent parliamentary debate has brought the rights of disabled people back into the spotlight of media attention. In the workplace, the occupational health nurse (OHN) is uniquely placed to make a positive contribution to the achievement of equal opportunities for people with disabilities. The author describes a risk assessment approach to the occupational health and safety of disabled persons and their employers. Such approaches can help to ensure that the work skills of all employees are used to maximum potential.

  20. Beyond the SYNTAX score--advantages and limitations of other risk assessment systems in left main percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Capodanno, Davide

    2013-01-01

    Risk stratification is an emerging topic in the modern management of patients with left main disease referred for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Recent years have witnessed an explosive multiplication of risk models for prognostic stratification in complex PCI. Many of this models deal with modification of the angiographic SYNTAX score, or seek to overcome its known pitfalls and limitations, including lack of clinical and functional information, inter- and intra-observer variabilities, and poor calibration. Risk scoring systems beyond the SYNTAX score may be classified into angiographic (residual SYNTAX score, coronary artery bypass grafting SYNTAX score), clinical (EuroSCORE I and II, ACEF score and modified ACEF scores), combined clinical and angiographic (Global Risk Classification, Clinical SYNTAX score, logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, SYNTAX score II) and functional (Functional SYNTAX score). This article reviews current concepts in risk modeling and explores the advantages and limitations of the alternatives to the SYNTAX score in patients undergoing left main PCI. 

  1. Using Risk-Based Analysis and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Flooding Problems in an Urban Watershed in Rhode Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardmeyer, Kent; Spencer, Michael A.

    2007-04-01

    This article provides an overview of the use of risk-based analysis (RBA) in flood damage assessment, and it illustrates the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in identifying flood-prone areas, which can aid in flood-mitigation planning assistance. We use RBA to calculate expected annual flood damages in an urban watershed in the state of Rhode Island, USA. The method accounts for the uncertainty in the three primary relationships used in computing flood damage: (1) the probability that a given flood will produce a given amount of floodwater, (2) the probability that a given amount of floodwater will reach a certain stage or height, and (3) the probability that a certain stage of floodwater will produce a given amount of damage. A greater than 50% increase in expected annual flood damage is estimated for the future if previous development patterns continue and flood-mitigation measures are not taken. GIS is then used to create a map that shows where and how often floods might occur in the future, which can help (1) identify priority areas for flood-mitigation planning assistance and (2) disseminate information to public officials and other decision-makers.

  2. Risk assessment of shellfish toxins.

    PubMed

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-11-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  3. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  4. Assessment of region, farming system, irrigation source and sampling time as food safety risk factors for tomatoes.

    PubMed

    Pagadala, Sivaranjani; Marine, Sasha C; Micallef, Shirley A; Wang, Fei; Pahl, Donna M; Melendez, Meredith V; Kline, Wesley L; Oni, Ruth A; Walsh, Christopher S; Everts, Kathryne L; Buchanan, Robert L

    2015-03-01

    In the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, small- and medium-sized farmers use varied farm management methods and water sources to produce tomatoes. It is unclear whether these practices affect the food safety risk for tomatoes. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence, and assess risk factors for Salmonella enterica, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and bacterial indicators in pre-harvest tomatoes and their production areas. A total of 24 organic and conventional, small- to medium-sized farms were sampled for six weeks in Maryland (MD), Delaware (DE) and New Jersey (NJ) between July and September 2012, and analyzed for indicator bacteria, Salmonella and STEC. A total of 422 samples--tomato fruit, irrigation water, compost, field soil and pond sediment samples--were collected, 259 of which were tomato samples. A low level of Salmonella-specific invA and Shiga toxin genes (stx1 or stx2) were detected, but no Salmonella or STEC isolates were recovered. Of the 422 samples analyzed, 9.5% were positive for generic E. coli, found in 5.4% (n=259) of tomato fruits, 22.5% (n=102) of irrigation water, 8.9% (n=45) of soil, 3/9 of pond sediment and 0/7 of compost samples. For tomato fruit, farming system (organic versus conventional) was not a significant factor for levels of indicator bacteria. However, the total number of organic tomato samples positive for generic E. coli (1.6%; 2/129) was significantly lower than for conventional tomatoes (6.9% (9/130); (χ(2) (1)=4.60, p=0.032)). Region was a significant factor for levels of Total Coliforms (TC) (p=0.046), although differences were marginal, with western MD having the highest TC counts (2.6 log CFU/g) and NJ having the lowest (2.0 log CFU/g). Tomatoes touching the ground or plastic mulch harbored significantly higher levels of TC compared to vine tomatoes, signaling a potential risk factor. Source of irrigation water was a significant factor for all indicator bacteria (p<0.0001), and

  5. Risk assessment and risk management of noncriteria pollutants.

    PubMed

    Lee, S D

    1990-10-01

    Noncriteria air pollutants are synonymous with hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), air toxics or toxic air pollutants (TAPs). The term noncriteria pollutants refers to all air pollutants except for the criteria pollutants (SOx, PM, NOx, CO, O3, and Pb). Air toxics are pervasive in our environment worldwide in varying degrees. Uses of these chemicals are varied and numerous; their emissions are ubiquitous, and they include organic compounds such as chlorinated hydrocarbons, dioxins, aldehydes, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, and heavy metals such as chromium, nickel, cadmium, and mercury. There are more than 70,000 chemicals that are in use commercially in the United States, and we know relatively little about their ambient concentrations, persistence, transport and transformation as well as their effects on health and the environment, many of which take decades to emerge. The United States Environmental Protection Agency, under the authority of Section 112 of the Clean Air Act, is mandated to regulate any air pollutant which, in the Administrator's judgment, "causes, or contributes to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to result in an increase in serious irreversible or incapacitating reversible illness." For such regulatory decision-making, EPA's Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) provides scientific assessment of health effects for potentially hazardous air pollutants. In accordance with risk assessment guidelines developed by OHEA over the years, Health Assessment Documents (HADs) containing risk assessment information were prepared and were subjected to critical review and careful revision to produce Final Draft HADs which serve as scientific databases for regulatory decision-making by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) in its risk management process. EPA developed databases such as the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and the National Air Toxics Information Clearinghouse (NATICH) and a technical

  6. Trends in quantitative cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Morris, S C

    1991-01-01

    Quantitative cancer risk assessment is a dynamic field, more closely coupled to rapidly advancing biomedical research than ever before. Six areas of change and growth are identified: expansion from models of cancer initiation to a more complete picture of the total carcinogenic process; trend from curve-fitting to biologically based models; movement from upperbound estimates to best estimates, with a more complete treatment of uncertainty; increased consideration of the role of susceptibility; growing development of expert systems and decision support systems; and emerging importance of risk communication. PMID:2050076

  7. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  8. Health risks of energy systems.

    PubMed

    Krewitt, W; Hurley, F; Trukenmüller, A; Friedrich, R

    1998-08-01

    Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed. PMID:9775447

  9. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  10. A roadmap for hazard monitoring and risk assessment of marine biotoxins on the basis of chemical and biological test systems.

    PubMed

    Daneshian, Mardas; Botana, Luis M; Dechraoui Bottein, Marie-Yasmine; Buckland, Gemma; Campàs, Mònica; Dennison, Ngaire; Dickey, Robert W; Diogène, Jorge; Fessard, Valérie; Hartung, Thomas; Humpage, Andrew; Leist, Marcel; Molgó, Jordi; Quilliam, Michael A; Rovida, Costanza; Suarez-Isla, Benjamin A; Tubaro, Aurelia; Wagner, Kristina; Zoller, Otmar; Dietrich, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Aquatic food accounts for over 40% of global animal food products, and the potential contamination with toxins of algal origin--marine biotoxins--poses a health threat for consumers. The gold standards to assess toxins in aquatic food have traditionally been in vivo methods, i.e., the mouse as well as the rat bioassay. Besides ethical concerns, there is also a need for more reliable test methods because of low inter-species comparability, high intra-species variability, the high number of false positive and negative results as well as questionable extrapolation of quantitative risk to humans. For this reason, a transatlantic group of experts in the field of marine biotoxins was convened from academia and regulatory safety authorities to discuss future approaches to marine biotoxin testing. In this report they provide a background on the toxin classes, on their chemical characterization, the epidemiology, on risk assessment and management, as well as on their assumed mode of action. Most importantly, physiological functional assays such as in vitro bioassays and also analytical techniques, e.g., liquid chromatography coupled mass spectrometry (LC-MS), as substitutes for the rodent bioassay are reviewed. This forms the basis for recommendations on methodologies for hazard monitoring and risk assessment, establishment of causality of intoxications in human cases, a roadmap for research and development of human-relevant functional assays, as well as new approaches for a consumer directed safety concept. PMID:24173170

  11. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  12. ECO 201: Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objectives of this course is to provide participants with knowledge about the fundamentals of ecological risk assessment. A brief history of how ecological risk assessment has evolved over time and how it is both similar to and different from human health risk assessment wil...

  13. Assessment of geomorphic risks and attractiveness to recreational systems: a case of Nalychevo Nature Park (Kamchatka, Russia).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blinova, I.; Bredikhin, A.

    2012-04-01

    . "Volcanoes of Kamchatka" are included on UNESCO's World Heritage List. In spite of general fame of Far East recreational resources there are still areas which are not affected by human activities (including recreation and tourism) in immediate proximity to the regional center. This is usually caused by poor infrastructure and lack of information about natural objects. Natural Park Nalychevo, located 50 km NE from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, represents an example of wild area not involved in human activities. The diversity of natural conditions and relief forms creates the necessary prerequisites for assignment a wide range of recreation specialization: balneal, hillwalking, sports (skiing, hiking etc.), environmental education. Hierarchical polycentric structure of Nature Park hampers its management and further development. Moreover, poor infrastructure aggravates the situation. Speaking of prospects for further elaboration of Nature Park, along with high geomorphic attractiveness we should take into account enormous risks induced by active relief dynamics. Sober assessment and analysis of these peculiarities allows to manage it effectively.

  14. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  15. Selection of Developmental Assessment Techniques for Infants at Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parmelee, Arthur H.; And Others

    This report presents a cumulative risk score system designed to identify high-risk infants through multiple assessments over an extended period of time. The system scores prenatal, natal, and neonatal biological events and neonatal behavioral performance in an additive fashion. Infants are assessed in the first month of life to distinguish those…

  16. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R.

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  17. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

    1996-01-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

  18. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  19. Assessment of region, farming system, irrigation source and sampling time as food safety risk factors for tomatoes.

    PubMed

    Pagadala, Sivaranjani; Marine, Sasha C; Micallef, Shirley A; Wang, Fei; Pahl, Donna M; Melendez, Meredith V; Kline, Wesley L; Oni, Ruth A; Walsh, Christopher S; Everts, Kathryne L; Buchanan, Robert L

    2015-03-01

    In the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, small- and medium-sized farmers use varied farm management methods and water sources to produce tomatoes. It is unclear whether these practices affect the food safety risk for tomatoes. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence, and assess risk factors for Salmonella enterica, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and bacterial indicators in pre-harvest tomatoes and their production areas. A total of 24 organic and conventional, small- to medium-sized farms were sampled for six weeks in Maryland (MD), Delaware (DE) and New Jersey (NJ) between July and September 2012, and analyzed for indicator bacteria, Salmonella and STEC. A total of 422 samples--tomato fruit, irrigation water, compost, field soil and pond sediment samples--were collected, 259 of which were tomato samples. A low level of Salmonella-specific invA and Shiga toxin genes (stx1 or stx2) were detected, but no Salmonella or STEC isolates were recovered. Of the 422 samples analyzed, 9.5% were positive for generic E. coli, found in 5.4% (n=259) of tomato fruits, 22.5% (n=102) of irrigation water, 8.9% (n=45) of soil, 3/9 of pond sediment and 0/7 of compost samples. For tomato fruit, farming system (organic versus conventional) was not a significant factor for levels of indicator bacteria. However, the total number of organic tomato samples positive for generic E. coli (1.6%; 2/129) was significantly lower than for conventional tomatoes (6.9% (9/130); (χ(2) (1)=4.60, p=0.032)). Region was a significant factor for levels of Total Coliforms (TC) (p=0.046), although differences were marginal, with western MD having the highest TC counts (2.6 log CFU/g) and NJ having the lowest (2.0 log CFU/g). Tomatoes touching the ground or plastic mulch harbored significantly higher levels of TC compared to vine tomatoes, signaling a potential risk factor. Source of irrigation water was a significant factor for all indicator bacteria (p<0.0001), and

  20. Tornado wind-loading requirements based on risk assessment techniques (For specific reactor safety Class 1 coolant system features)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deobald, Theodore L.; Coles, Garill A.; Smith, Gary L.

    1992-01-01

    Regulations require that nuclear power plants be protected from tornado winds. If struck by a tornado, a plant must be capable of safely shutting down and removing decay heat. Probabilistic techniques are used to show that risk to the public from the U.S. Department of Energy SP-100 reactor is acceptable without tornado hardening parts of the secondary system. Relaxed requirements for design wind loadings will result in significant cost savings. To demonstrate an acceptable level of risk, this document examines tornado-initiated accidents. The two tornado-initiated accidents examined in detail are loss of cooling resulting in core damage and loss of secondary system boundary integrity leading to sodium release. Loss of core cooling is analyzed using fault/event tree models. Loss of secondary system boundary integrity is analyzed by comparing the consequences to acceptance criteria for the release of radioactive material or alkali metal aerosol.

  1. Metabolism, variability and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dorne, J L C M

    2010-02-01

    improve the risk assessment of chemical mixtures were explored (1) harmonization of the use of uncertainty factors for human and ecological risk assessment using mechanistic descriptors (2) use of toxicokinetics interaction data to derive UFs for chemical mixtures. The use of toxicokinetics data in risk assessment are discussed together with future approaches including sound statistical approaches to optimise predictability of models and recombinant technology/toxicokinetics assays to identify metabolic routes for chemicals and screen mixtures of environmental health importance. PMID:19932147

  2. Assessing the infection risk of Giardia and Cryptosporidium in public drinking water delivered by surface water systems in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Sato, Maria Ines Z; Galvani, Ana Tereza; Padula, Jose Antonio; Nardocci, Adelaide Cassia; Lauretto, Marcelo de Souza; Razzolini, Maria Tereza Pepe; Hachich, Elayse Maria

    2013-01-01

    A survey of Giardia and Cryptosporidium was conducted in surface water used as drinking water sources by public water systems in four densely urbanized regions of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, based on protozoa concentrations, was performed to estimate the probability of protozoa infection associated with drinking water ingestion. A total of 206 source water samples were analyzed over a 24 month period using the USEPA Method 1623. The risk of infection was estimated using an exponential dose response model, children and adults exposure and a gamma distribution for (oo)cyst concentrations with three scenarios for treating censored data. Giardia was detected in 102 of the samples, and 19 of them were also positive for Cryptosporidium, with maximum concentrations of 97.0 cysts/L and 6.0 oocysts/L, respectively. Risk distributions were similar for the three scenarios. In the four regions, the estimated risk of Giardia infection per year, for adults and children, ranged from 0.29% to 2.47% and from 0.08% to 0.70%, respectively. Cryptosporidium risk infection varied from 0.15% to 0.29% for adults and from 0.04% to 0.08% for children. In both cases, the calculated risk surpassed the risk of infection of 10(-4) (1:10,000) defined as tolerable by USEPA for a yearly exposure. The probability of Giardia infection was very close to the rates of acute diarrheic disease for adults (1% to 3%) but lower for children (2% to 7%). The daily consumption of drinking water was an important contributing factor for these differences. The Microbiological Risk Assessment carried out in this study provides an indication of infection risks by Giardia and Cryptosporidium in the population served by these source waters. Strategies for source water protection and performance targets for the water treatment should be established to achieve the required level of public health risk.

  3. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    MedlinePlus

    ... What's this? Submit Button Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir New ... Minority Data Released! The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six types of health-risk behaviors ...

  4. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  5. Assessing research risks systematically: the net risks test.

    PubMed

    Wendler, D; Miller, F G

    2007-08-01

    Dual-track assessment directs research ethics committees (RECs) to assess the risks of research interventions based on the unclear distinction between therapeutic and non-therapeutic interventions. The net risks test, in contrast, relies on the clinically familiar method of assessing the risks and benefits of interventions in comparison to the available alternatives and also focuses attention of the RECs on the central challenge of protecting research participants. PMID:17664310

  6. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  7. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    SciTech Connect

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  8. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  9. [Methods of risk assessment and their validation].

    PubMed

    Baracco, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The review of the literature data shows several methods for the the risks assessment of biomnechanical overload of the musculoskeletal system in activities with repetitive strain of the upper limbs and manual material handling. The application of these methods should allow the quantification ofriskfor the working population, the identification of the preventive measures to reduce the risk and their effectiveness and thle design of a specific health surveillance scheme. In this paper we analyze the factors which must be taken into account in Occupational Medicine to implement a process of validation of these methods. In conclusion we believe it will necessary in the future the availability of new methods able to analyze and reduce the risk already in the design phase of the production process. PMID:25558718

  10. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  11. Leaching behaviour of pharmaceuticals in soil-testing-systems: a part of an environmental risk assessment for groundwater protection.

    PubMed

    Oppel, J; Broll, G; Löffler, D; Meller, M; Römbke, J; Ternes, Th

    2004-07-26

    The leaching behaviour of six selected pharmaceuticals was tested in different soils. Leaching experiments are a part of environmental risk assessment to estimate the distribution and fate of these pharmaceuticals in the environment. Based on the results of this assessment their mobility in soil and their potential to contaminate groundwater was evaluated. When assessing the leaching behaviour of these compounds, the influence of the properties (e.g. grain size distribution, pH, Corg) of different soils has to be taken into account. The test results indicated that the leaching potential found could be rated as low for diazepam, ibuprofen, ivermectin and carbamazepine. Therefore, contamination of the groundwater with these substances seems to be unlikely if the groundwater level is covered with sufficient layers of the soils investigated. Clofibric acid and iopromide were very mobile under the experimental conditions and thus, groundwater contamination would be possible if the soil is exposed to these pharmaceuticals, i.e. wastewater irrigation. These results are more or less in agreement with groundwater monitoring data found in the literature for ibuprofen and diazepam which were in general not present in groundwater, while clofibric acid and iopromide were frequently detected. However, a discrepancy was found for carbamazepine, since it occurs very often in groundwater. This discrepancy might be explained by the fact that the leaching tests were performed with soil, whereas in reality the groundwater contamination occurs mainly over river sediments and sub soil from receiving waters.

  12. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  13. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  14. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  15. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  16. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  17. Landscape ecological risk assessment study in arid land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.

    2007-09-01

    The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.

  18. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management.

  19. Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

    2014-05-01

    The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

  20. Induced seismicity risk assessment for the 2006 Basel, Switzerland, Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project: Role of parameter uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mignan, Arnaud; Landtwing, Delano; Mena, Banu; Wiemer, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    A project to exploit the geothermal potential of the crystalline rocks below the city of Basel, Switzerland, was abandoned in recent years due to unacceptable risk associated to increased seismic activity during and following hydraulic stimulation. The largest induced earthquake (Mw = 3.2, 8 December 2006) was widely felt by the local population and provoked slight non-structural damage to buildings. Here we present a probabilistic risk assessment analysis for the 2006 Basel EGS project, including uncertainty linked to the following parameters: induced seismicity forecast model, maximum magnitude, intensity prediction equation, site amplification or not, vulnerability index and cost function. Uncertainty is implemented using a logic tree composed of a total of 324 branches. Exposure is defined from the Basel area building stock of Baisch et al. (2009) (SERIANEX study). We first generate deterministic loss curves, defined as the insured value loss (IVL) as a function of earthquake magnitude. We calibrate the vulnerability curves for low EMS-98 intensities (using the input parameters fixed in the SERIANEX study) such that we match the real loss value, which has been estimated to 3 million CHF (lower than the paid value) for the Mw = 3.2 event. Coupling the deterministic loss curves with seismic hazard curves using the short-term earthquake risk (STEER) method, we obtain site-specific probabilistic loss curves (PLC, i.e., probability of exceeding a given IVL) for the 79 settlements considered. We then integrate over the different PLCs to calculate the most probable IVL. Based on the proposed logic tree, we find considerable variations in the most probable IVL, with lower values for the 6-day injection period than for the first 6 days of the post-injection period. This difference is due to a b-value significantly lower in the second period than in the first one, yielding a higher likelihood of larger earthquakes in the post-injection phase. Based on tornado diagrams

  1. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  2. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  3. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  4. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  5. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  6. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  7. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  8. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  9. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    SciTech Connect

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  10. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  11. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab.

  12. A method for assessing the risks of pipeline operations

    SciTech Connect

    Gloven, M.P.

    1996-09-01

    This paper presents a method for assessing the risks of hazardous liquid and natural gas pipeline systems. The method assesses risk by measuring historical and projected performance data against selected benchmarks, which if exceeded, may indicate that the pipeline may have a greater potential for failure or adverse consequence at certain points. Once these areas are determined, plans are developed and implemented to minimize risk.

  13. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  14. Biologically based, quantitative risk assessment of neurotoxicants.

    PubMed

    Slikker, W; Crump, K S; Andersen, M E; Bellinger, D

    1996-01-01

    The need for biologically based, quantitative risk assessment procedures for noncancer endpoints such as neurotoxicity has been discussed in reports by the United States Congress (Office of Technology Assessment, OTA), National Research Council (NRC), and a federal coordinating council. According to OTA, current attention and resources allocated to health risk assessment research are inadequate and not commensurate with its impact on public health and the economy. Methods to include continuous rather than dichotomous data for neurotoxicity endpoints, biomarkers of exposure and effects, and pharmacokinetic and mechanistic data have been proposed for neurotoxicity risk assessment but require further review and validation before acceptance. The purpose of this symposium was to examine procedures to enhance the risk assessment process for neurotoxicants and to discuss techniques to make the process more quantitative. Accordingly, a review of the currently used safety factor risk assessment approach for neurotoxicants is provided along with specific examples of how this process may be enhanced with the use of the benchmark dose approach. The importance of including physiologically based pharmacokinetic data in the risk assessment process and specific examples of this approach is presented for neurotoxicants. The role of biomarkers of exposure and effect and mechanistic information in the risk assessment process are also addressed. Finally, quantitative approaches with the use of continuous neurotoxicity data are demonstrated and the outcomes compared to those generated by currently used risk assessment procedures. PMID:8838636

  15. A risk-based approach for a national assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, Gene; Laniak, Gerard F.

    1998-10-18

    The need for environmental systems modeling is growing rapidly because of the 1) the combination of increasing technical scope and complexity related to questions of risk-based cause and effect and 2) need to explicitly address cost effectiveness in both the development and implementation of environmental regulations. The nature of risk assessments are evolving with their increased complexity in assessing individual sites and collection of sites, addressing regional or national regulatory needs. These assessments require the integration of existing tools and the development of new databases and models, based on a comprehensive and holistic view of the risk assessment problem. To meet these environmental regulatory needs, multiple-media-based assessments are formulated to view and assess risks from a comprehensive environmental systems perspective, crossing the boundaries of several scientific disciplines. Given the consideration and the advanced states of computer hardware and software, it is possible to design a software system that facilitates the development and integration of assessment tools (e.g., databases and models). In this paper, a risk-based approach for supporting national risk assessments is presented. This approach combines 1) databases, 2) multiple media models, combining source-term, fate and transport, exposure, and risk/hazard, and 3) sensitivity/uncertainty capabilities within a software system capable of growing within the science of risk assessment. The design and linkages of the system are discussed. This paper also provides the rationale behind the design of the framework, as there is a recognized need to develop more holistic approaches to risk assessment.

  16. Contribution of Earth Observation and meteorological datasets for the design and development of a national fire risk assessment system (NFOFRAS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katagis, Thomas; Bliziotis, Dimitris; Liantinioti, Chrysa; Gitas, Ioannis Z.; Charalampopoulou, Betty

    2016-08-01

    During the past decades, forest fires have increased both in frequency and severity thus, increasing the life threats for people and environment and leading countries to spend vast amounts of resources in fighting forest fires. Besides anthropogenic activities, climatic and environmental changes are considered as driving factors affecting fire occurrence and vegetation succession. Especially in the Mediterranean region, the development and existence of effective tools and services is crucial for assisting pre-fire planning and preparedness. The collaborative project NFOFRAS aims at introducing an innovative and effective system for rating forest fire risk, and is based on existing technology and standards that have been developed by countries with a long and a very successful involvement in this field. During the first phase of the project a detailed documentation of the proposed methodology was composed. In addition, Earth Observation (EO) and meteorological datasets were utilized for producing accurate pre-fire measurements over a selected study area in Greece.

  17. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  18. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  19. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  20. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  1. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on compl...

  2. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences with nature. The…

  3. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  4. Systems Toxicology Assessment of the Biological Impact of a Candidate Modified Risk Tobacco Product on Human Organotypic Oral Epithelial Cultures.

    PubMed

    Zanetti, Filippo; Sewer, Alain; Mathis, Carole; Iskandar, Anita R; Kostadinova, Radina; Schlage, Walter K; Leroy, Patrice; Majeed, Shoaib; Guedj, Emmanuel; Trivedi, Keyur; Martin, Florian; Elamin, Ashraf; Merg, Céline; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Frentzel, Stefan; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2016-08-15

    Cigarette smoke (CS) has been reported to increase predisposition to oral cancer and is also recognized as a risk factor for many conditions including periodontal diseases, gingivitis, and other benign mucosal disorders. Smoking cessation remains the most effective approach for minimizing the risk of smoking-related diseases. However, reduction of harmful constituents by heating rather than combusting tobacco, without modifying the amount of nicotine, is a promising new paradigm in harm reduction. In this study, we compared effects of exposure to aerosol derived from a candidate modified risk tobacco product, the tobacco heating system (THS) 2.2, with those of CS generated from the 3R4F reference cigarette. Human organotypic oral epithelial tissue cultures (EpiOral, MatTek Corporation) were exposed for 28 min to 3R4F CS or THS2.2 aerosol, both diluted with air to comparable nicotine concentrations (0.32 or 0.51 mg nicotine/L aerosol/CS for 3R4F and 0.31 or 0.46 mg/L for THS2.2). We also tested one higher concentration (1.09 mg/L) of THS2.2. A systems toxicology approach was employed combining cellular assays (i.e., cytotoxicity and cytochrome P450 activity assays), comprehensive molecular investigations of the buccal epithelial transcriptome (mRNA and miRNA) by means of computational network biology, measurements of secreted proinflammatory markers, and histopathological analysis. We observed that the impact of 3R4F CS was greater than THS2.2 aerosol in terms of cytotoxicity, morphological tissue alterations, and secretion of inflammatory mediators. Analysis of the transcriptomic changes in the exposed oral cultures revealed significant perturbations in various network models such as apoptosis, necroptosis, senescence, xenobiotic metabolism, oxidative stress, and nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2 (NFE2L2) signaling. The stress responses following THS2.2 aerosol exposure were markedly decreased, and the exposed cultures recovered more completely compared

  5. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  6. Iron overload by Superparamagnetic Iron Oxide Nanoparticles is a High Risk Factor in Cirrhosis by a Systems Toxicology Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Yushuang; Zhao, Mengzhu; Yang, Fang; Mao, Yang; Xie, Hang; Zhou, Qibing

    2016-01-01

    Superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) as a contrast agent have been widely used in magnetic resonance imaging for tumor diagnosis and theranostics. However, there has been safety concern of SPIONs with cirrhosis related to excess iron-induced oxidative stress. In this study, the impact of iron overload by SPIONs was assessed on a mouse cirrhosis model. A single dose of SPION injection at 0.5 or 5 mg Fe/kg in the cirrhosis group induced a septic shock response at 24 h with elevated serum levels of liver and kidney function markers and extended impacts over 14 days including high levels of serum cholesterols and persistent low serum iron level. In contrast, full restoration of liver functions was found in the normal group with the same dosages over time. Analysis with PCR array of the toxicity pathways revealed the high dose of SPIONs induced significant expression changes of a distinct subset of genes in the cirrhosis liver. All these results suggested that excess iron of the high dose of SPIONs might be a risk factor for cirrhosis because of the marked impacts of elevated lipid metabolism, disruption of iron homeostasis and possibly, aggravated loss of liver functions. PMID:27357559

  7. Iron overload by Superparamagnetic Iron Oxide Nanoparticles is a High Risk Factor in Cirrhosis by a Systems Toxicology Assessment.

    PubMed

    Wei, Yushuang; Zhao, Mengzhu; Yang, Fang; Mao, Yang; Xie, Hang; Zhou, Qibing

    2016-01-01

    Superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) as a contrast agent have been widely used in magnetic resonance imaging for tumor diagnosis and theranostics. However, there has been safety concern of SPIONs with cirrhosis related to excess iron-induced oxidative stress. In this study, the impact of iron overload by SPIONs was assessed on a mouse cirrhosis model. A single dose of SPION injection at 0.5 or 5 mg Fe/kg in the cirrhosis group induced a septic shock response at 24 h with elevated serum levels of liver and kidney function markers and extended impacts over 14 days including high levels of serum cholesterols and persistent low serum iron level. In contrast, full restoration of liver functions was found in the normal group with the same dosages over time. Analysis with PCR array of the toxicity pathways revealed the high dose of SPIONs induced significant expression changes of a distinct subset of genes in the cirrhosis liver. All these results suggested that excess iron of the high dose of SPIONs might be a risk factor for cirrhosis because of the marked impacts of elevated lipid metabolism, disruption of iron homeostasis and possibly, aggravated loss of liver functions. PMID:27357559

  8. Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can

  9. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  10. Application of Mechanistic Toxicology Data to Ecological Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    The ongoing evolution of knowledge and tools in the areas of molecular biology, bioinformatics, and systems biology holds significant promise for reducing uncertainties associated with ecological risk assessment. As our understanding of the mechanistic basis of responses of organ...

  11. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  12. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  13. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review.

    PubMed

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-03-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  14. Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

  15. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  16. [Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

    PubMed

    Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

    2013-02-01

    Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

  17. Distributed road assessment system

    DOEpatents

    Beer, N. Reginald; Paglieroni, David W

    2014-03-25

    A system that detects damage on or below the surface of a paved structure or pavement is provided. A distributed road assessment system includes road assessment pods and a road assessment server. Each road assessment pod includes a ground-penetrating radar antenna array and a detection system that detects road damage from the return signals as the vehicle on which the pod is mounted travels down a road. Each road assessment pod transmits to the road assessment server occurrence information describing each occurrence of road damage that is newly detected on a current scan of a road. The road assessment server maintains a road damage database of occurrence information describing the previously detected occurrences of road damage. After the road assessment server receives occurrence information for newly detected occurrences of road damage for a portion of a road, the road assessment server determines which newly detected occurrences correspond to which previously detected occurrences of road damage.

  18. A maritime decision support system to assess risk in the presence of environmental uncertainties: the REP10 experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grasso, Raffaele; Cococcioni, Marco; Mourre, Baptiste; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Rixen, Michel

    2012-03-01

    The aim of this work is to report on an activity carried out during the 2010 Recognized Environmental Picture experiment, held in the Ligurian Sea during summer 2010. The activity was the first at-sea test of the recently developed decision support system (DSS) for operation planning, which had previously been tested in an artificial experiment. The DSS assesses the impact of both environmental conditions (meteorological and oceanographic) and non-environmental conditions (such as traffic density maps) on people and assets involved in the operation and helps in deciding a course of action that allows safer operation. More precisely, the environmental variables (such as wind speed, current speed and significant wave height) taken as input by the DSS are the ones forecasted by a super-ensemble model, which fuses the forecasts provided by multiple forecasting centres. The uncertainties associated with the DSS's inputs (generally due to disagreement between forecasts) are propagated through the DSS's output by using the unscented transform. In this way, the system is not only able to provide a traffic light map ( run/ not run the operation), but also to specify the confidence level associated with each action. This feature was tested on a particular type of operation with underwater gliders: the glider surfacing for data transmission. It is also shown how the availability of a glider path prediction tool provides surfacing options along the predicted path. The applicability to different operations is demonstrated by applying the same system to support diver operations.

  19. Wetlands in the ecological risk assessment process: A case study

    SciTech Connect

    Saban, L.B.

    1995-12-31

    In the past few years, the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process as outlined in the EPA document Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment has been successfully used to assess risk to birds, mammals, aquatic organisms, plants, and to a limited extent, reptiles and amphibians, but has only recently been applied to wetlands. Due to the unique role that wetlands play in the environment as sources and sinks for nutrients, sediment retention, high productivity, habitat transition zones, aquifer recharge, high diversity and richness of biota, and aesthetic value, it is important to consider the entire wetland system in the ERA process. Because nearly sixty percent of Superfund sites are located in or near wetlands, a comprehensive approach is proposed to evaluate potential risks to flora and fauna in these wetland environments. Using the delineation and functional assessment techniques developed by wetland scientists, an estuarine wetland in western Washington was evaluated within the scope of ERA`S. The ERA was applied to the wetland using functional assessments as an integral part of the problem formulation phase of the risk assessment process. Applying the ERA process to wetlands enhances the functional assessment process and helps to define critical elements to evaluate within wetland systems. The results of this risk assessment help to define patches within a landscape that are potentially at risk and how to prioritize remedial actions.

  20. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  1. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid. PMID:26556515

  2. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  3. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  4. Assessing the risk for dengue fever based on socioeconomic and environmental variables in a geographical information system environment.

    PubMed

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2012-05-01

    An important option in preventing the spread of dengue fever (DF) is to control and monitor its vector (Aedes aegypti) as well as to locate and destroy suitable mosquito breeding environments. The aim of the present study was to use a combination of environmental and socioeconomic variables to model areas at risk of DF. These variables include clinically confirmed DF cases, mosquito counts, population density in inhabited areas, total populations per district, water access, neighbourhood quality and the spatio-temporal risk of DF based on the average, weekly frequency of DF incidence. Out of 111 districts investigated, 17 (15%), covering a total area of 121 km2, were identified as of high risk, 25 (22%), covering 133 km2, were identified as of medium risk, 18 (16%), covering 180 km2, were identified as of low risk and 51 (46%), covering 726 km2, were identified as of very low risk. The resultant model shows that most areas at risk of DF were concentrated in the central part of Jeddah county, Saudi Arabia. The methods used can be implemented as routine procedures for control and prevention. A concerted intervention in the medium- and high-risk level districts identified in this study could be highly effective in reducing transmission of DF in the area as a whole.

  5. Assessing the risk for dengue fever based on socioeconomic and environmental variables in a geographical information system environment.

    PubMed

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2012-05-01

    An important option in preventing the spread of dengue fever (DF) is to control and monitor its vector (Aedes aegypti) as well as to locate and destroy suitable mosquito breeding environments. The aim of the present study was to use a combination of environmental and socioeconomic variables to model areas at risk of DF. These variables include clinically confirmed DF cases, mosquito counts, population density in inhabited areas, total populations per district, water access, neighbourhood quality and the spatio-temporal risk of DF based on the average, weekly frequency of DF incidence. Out of 111 districts investigated, 17 (15%), covering a total area of 121 km2, were identified as of high risk, 25 (22%), covering 133 km2, were identified as of medium risk, 18 (16%), covering 180 km2, were identified as of low risk and 51 (46%), covering 726 km2, were identified as of very low risk. The resultant model shows that most areas at risk of DF were concentrated in the central part of Jeddah county, Saudi Arabia. The methods used can be implemented as routine procedures for control and prevention. A concerted intervention in the medium- and high-risk level districts identified in this study could be highly effective in reducing transmission of DF in the area as a whole. PMID:22639119

  6. Gaseous emissions from a heavy-duty engine equipped with SCR aftertreatment system and fuelled with diesel and biodiesel: assessment of pollutant dispersion and health risk.

    PubMed

    Tadano, Yara S; Borillo, Guilherme C; Godoi, Ana Flávia L; Cichon, Amanda; Silva, Thiago O B; Valebona, Fábio B; Errera, Marcelo R; Penteado Neto, Renato A; Rempel, Dennis; Martin, Lucas; Yamamoto, Carlos I; Godoi, Ricardo H M

    2014-12-01

    The changes in the composition of fuels in combination with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) emission control systems bring new insights into the emission of gaseous and particulate pollutants. The major goal of our study was to quantify NOx, NO, NO2, NH3 and N2O emissions from a four-cylinder diesel engine operated with diesel and a blend of 20% soybean biodiesel. Exhaust fume samples were collected from bench dynamometer tests using a heavy-duty diesel engine equipped with SCR. The target gases were quantified by means of Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR). The use of biodiesel blend presented lower concentrations in the exhaust fumes than using ultra-low sulfur diesel. NOx and NO concentrations were 68% to 93% lower in all experiments using SCR, when compared to no exhaust aftertreatment. All fuels increased NH3 and N2O emission due to SCR, a precursor secondary aerosol, and major greenhouse gas, respectively. An AERMOD dispersion model analysis was performed on each compound results for the City of Curitiba, assumed to have a bus fleet equipped with diesel engines and SCR system, in winter and summer seasons. The health risks of the target gases were assessed using the Risk Assessment Information System For 1-h exposure of NH3, considering the use of low sulfur diesel in buses equipped with SCR, the results indicated low risk to develop a chronic non-cancer disease. The NOx and NO emissions were the lowest when SCR was used; however, it yielded the highest NH3 concentration. The current results have paramount importance, mainly for countries that have not yet adopted the Euro V emission standards like China, India, Australia, or Russia, as well as those already adopting it. These findings are equally important for government agencies to alert the need of improvements in aftertreatment technologies to reduce pollutants emissions. PMID:25217745

  7. Gaseous emissions from a heavy-duty engine equipped with SCR aftertreatment system and fuelled with diesel and biodiesel: assessment of pollutant dispersion and health risk.

    PubMed

    Tadano, Yara S; Borillo, Guilherme C; Godoi, Ana Flávia L; Cichon, Amanda; Silva, Thiago O B; Valebona, Fábio B; Errera, Marcelo R; Penteado Neto, Renato A; Rempel, Dennis; Martin, Lucas; Yamamoto, Carlos I; Godoi, Ricardo H M

    2014-12-01

    The changes in the composition of fuels in combination with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) emission control systems bring new insights into the emission of gaseous and particulate pollutants. The major goal of our study was to quantify NOx, NO, NO2, NH3 and N2O emissions from a four-cylinder diesel engine operated with diesel and a blend of 20% soybean biodiesel. Exhaust fume samples were collected from bench dynamometer tests using a heavy-duty diesel engine equipped with SCR. The target gases were quantified by means of Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR). The use of biodiesel blend presented lower concentrations in the exhaust fumes than using ultra-low sulfur diesel. NOx and NO concentrations were 68% to 93% lower in all experiments using SCR, when compared to no exhaust aftertreatment. All fuels increased NH3 and N2O emission due to SCR, a precursor secondary aerosol, and major greenhouse gas, respectively. An AERMOD dispersion model analysis was performed on each compound results for the City of Curitiba, assumed to have a bus fleet equipped with diesel engines and SCR system, in winter and summer seasons. The health risks of the target gases were assessed using the Risk Assessment Information System For 1-h exposure of NH3, considering the use of low sulfur diesel in buses equipped with SCR, the results indicated low risk to develop a chronic non-cancer disease. The NOx and NO emissions were the lowest when SCR was used; however, it yielded the highest NH3 concentration. The current results have paramount importance, mainly for countries that have not yet adopted the Euro V emission standards like China, India, Australia, or Russia, as well as those already adopting it. These findings are equally important for government agencies to alert the need of improvements in aftertreatment technologies to reduce pollutants emissions.

  8. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  9. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  10. Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System and the W.K. Kellogg Foundation joint project to enhance maternal and child health surveillance: focus on collaboration.

    PubMed

    Ahluwalia, Indu B; Harrison, Leslie; Simpson, Patrick; Wako, Etobssie; Helms Shealy, Kristen; Kapaya, Martha; Williams, Tanya; Williams, Letitia; D'Angelo, Denise

    2015-04-01

    Maternal and child health (MCH) surveillance data are important for understanding gaps in services and disparities in burden of disease, access to care, risk behaviors, and health outcomes. However, national and state surveillance systems are not always designed to gather sufficient data for calculating reliable estimates of the health conditions among high-risk or underrepresented population subgroups living in smaller geographic areas. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) has conducted surveillance for over 25 years in collaboration with state and city health departments. In 2012, PRAMS embarked on a multiyear collaboration with the W.K. Kellogg Foundation (WKKF) to include oversampling of minority and low-income women in selected geographic areas in four states (Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, and New Mexico) where the WKKF funded extensive place-based initiatives are located. The PRAMS-WKKF collaboration has broad implications for promoting meaningful collaboration between public, private, local, state, and federal organizations to address MCH data gaps on disparities, and for improving the availability of information needed for MCH programs, policy makers, and women.

  11. Risk assessment for the Arkansas City hazardous-waste site

    SciTech Connect

    Hopper, L.D.

    1989-01-01

    A review of risk assessment revealed inconsistencies in the methods used, arguments as to the reliability of the end results, and conflicts over its acceptance by members of scientific community. The US Geological Survey requested an endangerment assessment for the environmental contamination from an old oil refinery site in Coffey County, Kansas. The four aspects of the risk assessment process were applied to the data available from the contamination site. Investigation of the substances present, their toxicities, available dose-response data and exposure information led to quantitative risk values for various substances present. Risks to the susceptible population were characterized according to type of threat and risk probability. Significant risks due to systemic toxicants and carcinogens, as well as organoleptic problems, were determine to pose a threat to the population experiencing exposure at this particular site.

  12. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  13. An Assessment of Non-Communicable Diseases, Diabetes, and Related Risk Factors in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands: A Systems Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Robles, Becky; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).1 This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) and describes the burdens due to NCDs, with an emphasis on diabetes, and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection and reporting as well as identifies the issues that need to be addressed. There has been a 22.7% decline in the population between 2000 and 2010. Findings of medical and health data reveal that the risk factors of lifestyle behaviors lead to overweight and obesity and subsequent NCD. The leading causes of death are heart disease, stroke and cancer. The 2009 BRFSS survey reveals that the prevalence rate for diabetes was 9.8%. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, data, and support services to address these NCDs. There is no overall health plan to address NCDs or diabetes, there is little coordination between the medical care and public health staff, and there is no functional data system to identify, register, and track patients with diabetes. Based on the findings, priority issues and problems to be addressed for the administrative system and clinical system are identified. PMID:23900536

  14. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  15. The new tapestry of risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Bernard; Cory-Slechta, Deborah; Gilbert, Steven G.; Mergler, Donna; Miller, Elise; Miller, Claudia; Newland, M. Christopher; Rice, Deborah; Schettler, Ted

    2008-01-01

    Neurotoxicology is entering a new phase in how it views and practices risk assessment. Perhaps more than any of the other disciplines that comprise the science of toxicology, it has been compelled to consider a daunting array of factors other than those directly coupled to chemical and dose, and the age and sex of the subject population. In epidemiological investigations, researchers are increasingly cognizant of the problems introduced by allegedly controlling for variables classified as confounders or covariates. In essence, they reason, the consequence is blurring or even concealing interactions of exposure with modifiers such as the individual’s social ecology. Other researchers question the traditional practice of relying on values such as NOAELs when they are abstracted from a biological entity that in reality represents a multiplicity of intertwined systems. Although neurotoxicologists have come to recognize the complexities of assessing risk in all its dimensions, they still face the challenge of communicating this view to the health professions at large. PMID:18501430

  16. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  17. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  18. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  19. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  20. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  1. Quantitative assessment of the association between the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene insertion/deletion polymorphism and digestive system cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Yang, S; Guo, F H; Mao, X; Zhou, H; Dong, Y Q; Wang, Z M; Luo, F

    2015-01-01

    The angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism has been reported to be associated with digestive system cancer; however, the results from previous studies have been conflicting. The present study aimed to investigate the association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and the risk of digestive system cancer using a meta-analysis of previously published studies. Databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies published prior to December 2014. We estimated the pooled OR with its 95%CI to assess the association. The meta-analysis consisted of thirteen case-control studies that included 2557 patients and 4356 healthy controls. Meta-analysis results based on all the studies showed no significant association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and the risk of digestive system cancer (DD vs II: OR = 0.85, 95%CI = 0.59-1.24; DI vs II: OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.78-1.15; dominant model: OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.81- 1.15; recessive model: OR = 1.06, 95%CI = 0.76-1.48). Subgroup analyses by race and cancer type did not detect an association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and digestive system cancer risk. However, when the analyses were restricted to smaller studies (N < 500 patients), the summary OR of DI vs II was 0.80 (95%CI = 0.66-0.97). Our analyses detected a possibility of publication bias with a misestimate of the true association by smaller studies. Overall, meta-analysis results suggest the ACE I/D polymorphism might not be associated with susceptibility to digestive system cancer. Further large and well-designed studies are needed to confirm these conclusions.

  2. Perioperative risk assessment. Common misconceptions.

    PubMed

    Mishriki, Y Y

    1989-04-01

    Proper assessment of the preoperative patient is a blend of the art and science of medicine. The body of literature dealing with the various facets of this assessment has grown in the past few years. Unfortunately, this core of knowledge is neither well taught to residents-in-training nor well appreciated by many practicing physicians. Thus, evaluation of the surgical patient is often guided by personal anecdotes and unjustified assumptions. Seven common misconceptions are addressed in this article. PMID:2648378

  3. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  4. Assessing risk: Putting toxicity in perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, C.

    1993-08-01

    Opinions on risk assessment vary from believing the process to be a purely pursuit at one extreme to professing that it is merely a {open_quotes}plug and chug{close_quotes} or {open_quotes}turn the crank{close_quotes} exercise at the other. Those familiar with the field recognize, however, that risk assessment is basically a process of exercising good scientific analysis and judgement. More specifically, risk assessment is the devise by which one arrives at decisions concerning accidental chemical exposures, chemical tolerances in food, allowable workplace chemical exposures and chemicals in the environment from uncontrolled industrial and waste sites. This paper discussess risk assessment and relations to the Superfund.

  5. Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans and environmental species are rarely exposed to single chemicals. These chemicals typically affect multiple tissues through multiple modes of action, which may depend on the dose. Mixtures risk assessment may employ dose response information from the mixture of interest,...

  6. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva. PMID:23505756

  7. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  8. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  9. [The urgent problems of the improvement of the environment management system based on the analysis of health risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Avaliani, S L; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Mishina, A L

    2014-01-01

    The lack of adequate legislative and regulatory framework for ensuring minimization of the health risks in the field of environmental protection is the obstacle for the application of the risk analysis methodology as a leading tool for administrative activity in Russia. "Principles of the state policy in the sphere of ensuring chemical and biological safety of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and beyond", approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 01 November 2013, No PR-25 73, are aimed at the legal support for the health risk analysis methodology. In the article there have been supposed the main stages of the operative control of the environmental quality, which lead to the reduction of the health risk to the acceptable level. The further improvement of the health risk analysis methodology in Russia should contribute to the implementation of the state policy in the sphere of chemical and biological safety through the introduction of complex measures on neutralization of chemical and biological threats to the human health and the environment, as well as evaluation of the economic effectiveness of these measures. The primary step should be the legislative securing of the quantitative value for the term: "acceptable risk".

  10. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  11. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  12. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  13. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  14. Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

    2010-01-01

    NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

  15. Safety assessment of the tritium recovery system

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-09-01

    This Safety Assessment (SA) contains descriptions and evaluations of the environmental, health, and safety issues associated with the Tritium Recovery System (TRS) at the Pinellas Plant. It provides: 1. site and facility descriptions, 2. an overall description of the TRS and its operations, 3. an evaluation of the hazards associated with TRS operations, 4. descriptions and analyses of the adequacy of measures taken to eliminate, control, or mitigate identified hazards, and 5. assessment of potential accidents and their associated risks. This SA contains the results of safety evaluations of TRS operations, equipment, and supplied systems. The evaluations include, as appropriate, preliminary hazards listings, qualitative risk assessments, and quantitative risk assessments.

  16. Prioritizing stream types according to their potential risk to receive crop plant material--A GIS-based procedure to assist in the risk assessment of genetically modified crops and systemic insecticide residues.

    PubMed

    Bundschuh, Rebecca; Kuhn, Ulrike; Bundschuh, Mirco; Naegele, Caroline; Elsaesser, David; Schlechtriemen, Ulrich; Oehen, Bernadette; Hilbeck, Angelika; Otto, Mathias; Schulz, Ralf; Hofmann, Frieder

    2016-03-15

    Crop plant residues may enter aquatic ecosystems via wind deposition or surface runoff. In the case of genetically modified crops or crops treated with systemic pesticides, these materials may contain insecticidal Bt toxins or pesticides that potentially affect aquatic life. However, the particular exposure pattern of aquatic ecosystems (i.e., via plant material) is not properly reflected in current risk assessment schemes, which primarily focus on waterborne toxicity and not on plant material as the route of uptake. To assist in risk assessment, the present study proposes a prioritization procedure of stream types based on the freshwater network and crop-specific cultivation data using maize in Germany as a model system. To identify stream types with a high probability of receiving crop materials, we developed a formalized, criteria-based and thus transparent procedure that considers the exposure-related parameters, ecological status--an estimate of the diversity and potential vulnerability of local communities towards anthropogenic stress--and availability of uncontaminated reference sections. By applying the procedure to maize, ten stream types out of 38 are expected to be the most relevant if the ecological effects from plant-incorporated pesticides need to be evaluated. This information is an important first step to identifying habitats within these stream types with a high probability of receiving crop plant material at a more local scale, including accumulation areas. Moreover, the prioritization procedure developed in the present study may support the selection of aquatic species for ecotoxicological testing based on their probability of occurrence in stream types having a higher chance of exposure. Finally, this procedure can be adapted to any geographical region or crop of interest and is, therefore, a valuable tool for a site-specific risk assessment of crop plants carrying systemic pesticides or novel proteins, such as insecticidal Bt toxins, expressed

  17. Prioritizing stream types according to their potential risk to receive crop plant material--A GIS-based procedure to assist in the risk assessment of genetically modified crops and systemic insecticide residues.

    PubMed

    Bundschuh, Rebecca; Kuhn, Ulrike; Bundschuh, Mirco; Naegele, Caroline; Elsaesser, David; Schlechtriemen, Ulrich; Oehen, Bernadette; Hilbeck, Angelika; Otto, Mathias; Schulz, Ralf; Hofmann, Frieder

    2016-03-15

    Crop plant residues may enter aquatic ecosystems via wind deposition or surface runoff. In the case of genetically modified crops or crops treated with systemic pesticides, these materials may contain insecticidal Bt toxins or pesticides that potentially affect aquatic life. However, the particular exposure pattern of aquatic ecosystems (i.e., via plant material) is not properly reflected in current risk assessment schemes, which primarily focus on waterborne toxicity and not on plant material as the route of uptake. To assist in risk assessment, the present study proposes a prioritization procedure of stream types based on the freshwater network and crop-specific cultivation data using maize in Germany as a model system. To identify stream types with a high probability of receiving crop materials, we developed a formalized, criteria-based and thus transparent procedure that considers the exposure-related parameters, ecological status--an estimate of the diversity and potential vulnerability of local communities towards anthropogenic stress--and availability of uncontaminated reference sections. By applying the procedure to maize, ten stream types out of 38 are expected to be the most relevant if the ecological effects from plant-incorporated pesticides need to be evaluated. This information is an important first step to identifying habitats within these stream types with a high probability of receiving crop plant material at a more local scale, including accumulation areas. Moreover, the prioritization procedure developed in the present study may support the selection of aquatic species for ecotoxicological testing based on their probability of occurrence in stream types having a higher chance of exposure. Finally, this procedure can be adapted to any geographical region or crop of interest and is, therefore, a valuable tool for a site-specific risk assessment of crop plants carrying systemic pesticides or novel proteins, such as insecticidal Bt toxins, expressed

  18. An Assessment of Non-Communicable Diseases, Diabetes, and Related Risk Factors in the Federated States of Micronesia, State of Kosrae: A Systems Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Tolenoa, Nena; Taulung, Livinson; Mongkeya, Maria; Lippwe, Kipier; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).1 This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the Federated States of Micronesia, State of Kosrae and describes the burdens due to NCDs, including diabetes, and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been a 13.9% decline in the population between 2000 and 2010. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors lead to overweight and obesity and subsequent NCD that are a significant factor in the morbidity and mortality of the population. Leading causes of death were due to nutrition and metabolic diseases followed by diseases of the circulatory system. Data from selected community programs show that the prevalence of overweight and obese participants ranged between 82% and 95% and the rate of reported diabetes ranged from 13% to 14%. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, data, and support services to address these NCD. There is no functional data system that is able to identify, register, or track patients with diabetes. Priority administrative and clinical issues were identified that need to be addressed to begin to mitigate the burdens of NCDs among the residents of Kosrae State. PMID:23900387

  19. An assessment of non-communicable diseases, diabetes, and related risk factors in the Federated States of Micronesia, State of Kosrae: a systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Ichiho, Henry M; Tolenoa, Nena; Taulung, Livinson; Mongkeya, Maria; Lippwe, Kipier; Aitaoto, Nia

    2013-05-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the Federated States of Micronesia, State of Kosrae and describes the burdens due to NCDs, including diabetes, and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been a 13.9% decline in the population between 2000 and 2010. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors lead to overweight and obesity and subsequent NCD that are a significant factor in the morbidity and mortality of the population. Leading causes of death were due to nutrition and metabolic diseases followed by diseases of the circulatory system. Data from selected community programs show that the prevalence of overweight and obese participants ranged between 82% and 95% and the rate of reported diabetes ranged from 13% to 14%. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, data, and support services to address these NCD. There is no functional data system that is able to identify, register, or track patients with diabetes. Priority administrative and clinical issues were identified that need to be addressed to begin to mitigate the burdens of NCDs among the residents of Kosrae State.

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  1. APPLICATION OF FETAX IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A workshop sponsored by NIEHS in 2000 evaluated the use of FETAX as a screening method for identifying the developmental toxicity potenial of chemical and environmental samples. Workshop recommendations pertinent to environmental risk assessment suggested that additional comparat...

  2. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W.

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  3. Machine Learning Analysis of the Relationship Between Changes in Immunological Parameters and Changes in Resistance to Listeria monocytogenes: A New Approach for Risk Assessment and Systems Immunology

    PubMed Central

    Pruett, Stephen B.

    2012-01-01

    No method has been reported to predict, even approximately, the impact of mild-to-moderate changes in several immunological parameters on resistance to infection. The ability to make such predictions would be useful in risk assessment. In addition, equations that predict host resistance on the basis of changes in components of a complex biological system (the immune system) would fulfill one of the major goals of systems biology. In this study, multiple machine learning classification methods were used to predict the effects of a series of drugs and chemicals on host resistance to Listeria monocytogenes in mice on the basis of changes in several holistic immunological parameters. A data set produced under the sponsorship of the National Toxicology Program (NTP) was used in this study. The NTP data set was found to have a high percentage of missing data and to be noisy (probably due to the intrinsically stochastic nature of immune responses). Data preprocessing steps were used to mitigate these problems. In evaluating the machine learning classifiers, we first randomly partitioned the NTP data set into 10 subsets. Each time, we used nine subsets of the data to train the machine learning classifiers, and the remaining single subset to predict outcomes with regard to host resistance. This process was repeated until all 10 combinations of the 9-1 split of the subsets have been tested. The best of the classifiers predicted host resistance outcome correctly for 94.7% of cases, a result which indicates it is possible to identify mathematical expressions that will be useful for risk assessment and to establish a basis for systems immunology. PMID:22696237

  4. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  5. Remedial Action Assessment System

    1997-02-01

    RAAS1.1 is a software-based system designed to assist remediation professionals at each stage of the environmental analysis process. RAAS1.1 provides a template for environmental restoration analysis, and provides the user with key results at each step in the analysis. RAAS1.1 assists the user to develop a coherent and consistent site description, estimate baseline and residual risk to public health from the contaminated site, identify applicable environmental restoration technologies, and formulate feasible remedial response alternatives. Inmore » addition, the RAAS1.1 methodology allows the user to then assess and compare those remedial response alternatives across EPA criteria, including: compliance with objectives; short-term and long-term effectiveness; extent of treatment; and implementability of the technologies. The analytic methodology is segmented and presented in a standardized, concise, easy-to-use format that can be viewed on the personal computer screen, saved and further manipulated, or printed for later use. Each screen and analytic step is accessed via a user-friendly personal computer graphical interface. Intuitively-designed buttons, menus, and lists help the user focus in on the particular information and analysis component of interest; the corresponding results are presented in a format that facilitates their use in decision-making.« less

  6. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  7. A system-based approach to interpret dose- and time-dependent microarray data: quantitative integration of gene ontology analysis for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Yu, Xiaozhong; Griffith, William C; Hanspers, Kristina; Dillman, James F; Ong, Hansel; Vredevoogd, Melinda A; Faustman, Elaine M

    2006-08-01

    Although microarray technology has emerged as a powerful tool to explore expression levels of thousands of genes or even complete genomes after exposure to toxicants, the functional interpretation of microarray data sets still represents a time-consuming and challenging task. Gene ontology (GO) and pathway mapping have both been shown to be powerful approaches to generate a global view of biological processes and cellular components impacted by toxicants. However, current methods only allow for comparisons across two experimental settings at one particular time point. In addition, the resulting annotations are presented in extensive gene lists with minimal or limited quantitative information, data that are crucial in the application of toxicogenomic data for risk assessment. To facilitate quantitative interpretation of dose- or time-dependent genomic data, we propose to use combined average raw gene expression values (e.g., intensity or ratio) of genes associated with specific functional categories derived from the GO database. We developed an extended program (GO-Quant) to extract quantitative gene expression values and to calculate the average intensity or ratio for those significantly altered by functional gene category based on MAPPFinder results. To demonstrate its application, we applied this approach to a previously published dose- and time-dependent toxicogenomic data set (J. F. Dillman et al., 2005, Chem. Res. Toxicol. 18, 28-34). Our results indicate that the above systems approach can describe quantitatively the degree to which functional gene systems change across dose or time. Additionally, this approach provides a robust measurement to illustrate results compared to single-gene assessments and enables the user to calculate the corresponding ED(50) for each specific functional GO term, important for risk assessment.

  8. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  9. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  10. Reproducibility and Transparency of Omics Research - Impacts on Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Omics technologies are becoming more widely used in toxicology, necessitating their consideration in human health hazard and risk assessment programs. Today, risk assessors in the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Toxicologi...

  11. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  12. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  13. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  14. Validating a multifactorial falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    James, Michele B; Kimmons, Nancy J; Schasberger, Britta; Lefkowitz, Abigail

    2014-01-01

    Reducing risk of falls has been identified as a national safety goal by The Joint Commission (TJC). The purpose was to determine if the total score on the multifactorial Falls Risk Assessment accurately identifies the risk of falls in a homebound client. In addition, the study examined if any individual item had a higher predictive power with the incidence of falls. One hundred clients (> 65 years old) who sustained an avoidable fall during a home care episode of care, plus 25 home care clients in the same age range and time period, who did not fall. A retrospective chart review, including Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) performed at start of care, demographic information, specific physical therapy (PT) evaluation, and visit notes if necessary to determine if the fall met the inclusion criteria. Scores for each individual area of the assessment were collected for statistical analysis. Data were analyzed by a biostatistician using simple linear regression, t-tests, and regression of variable combinations. The total score on the multifactorial risk assessment tool was shown to have a strong relationship with incidence of falls. The average scores of individuals who fell after assessment were significantly higher than those of individuals who did not fall. No single factors were found to be highly predictive. A single approach to decreasing falls is likely to be less effective than a multipronged approach. Caregivers and providers are advised to consider the entirety of the falls risk and direct comprehensive interventions to address the multiple factors that lead to falls.

  15. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  16. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  17. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  18. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  19. Molecular risk assessment and epidemiological typing of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli by using a novel PCR binary typing system.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Stephanie M; King, Nicola; Cornelius, Angela J; Premaratne, Aruni; Besser, Thomas E; On, Stephen L W

    2011-04-01

    Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) is a zoonotic pathogen that causes diarrheal disease in humans and is of public health concern because of its ability to cause outbreaks and severe disease such as hemorrhagic colitis or hemolytic-uremic syndrome. More than 400 serotypes of STEC have been implicated in outbreaks and sporadic human disease. The aim of this study was to develop a PCR binary typing (P-BIT) system that could be used to aid in risk assessment and epidemiological studies of STEC by using gene targets that would represent a broad range of STEC virulence genes. We investigated the distribution of 41 gene targets in 75 O157 and non-O157 STEC isolates and found that P-BIT provided 100% typeability for isolates, gave a diversity index of 97.33% (compared with 99.28% for XbaI pulsed-field gel electrophoresis [PFGE] typing), and produced 100% discrimination for non-O157 STEC isolates. We identified 24 gene targets that conferred the same level of discrimination and produced the same cluster dendrogram as the 41 gene targets initially examined. P-BIT clustering identified O157 from non-O157 isolates and identified seropathotypes associated with outbreaks and severe disease. Numerical analysis of the P-BIT data identified several genes associated with human or nonhuman sources as well as high-risk seropathotypes. We conclude that P-BIT is a useful approach for subtyping, offering the advantage of speed, low cost, and potential for strain risk assessment that can be used in tandem with current molecular typing schema for STEC. PMID:21296939

  20. Short-term emergency response planning and risk assessment via an integrated modeling system for nuclear power plants in complex terrain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Weng, Yu-Chi

    2013-03-01

    Short-term predictions of potential impacts from accidental release of various radionuclides at nuclear power plants are acutely needed, especially after the Fukushima accident in Japan. An integrated modeling system that provides expert services to assess the consequences of accidental or intentional releases of radioactive materials to the atmosphere has received wide attention. These scenarios can be initiated either by accident due to human, software, or mechanical failures, or from intentional acts such as sabotage and radiological dispersal devices. Stringent action might be required just minutes after the occurrence of accidental or intentional release. To fulfill the basic functions of emergency preparedness and response systems, previous studies seldom consider the suitability of air pollutant dispersion models or the connectivity between source term, dispersion, and exposure assessment models in a holistic context for decision support. Therefore, the Gaussian plume and puff models, which are only suitable for illustrating neutral air pollutants in flat terrain conditional to limited meteorological situations, are frequently used to predict the impact from accidental release of industrial sources. In situations with complex terrain or special meteorological conditions, the proposing emergency response actions might be questionable and even intractable to decisionmakers responsible for maintaining public health and environmental quality. This study is a preliminary effort to integrate the source term, dispersion, and exposure assessment models into a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) to tackle the complex issues for short-term emergency response planning and risk assessment at nuclear power plants. Through a series model screening procedures, we found that the diagnostic (objective) wind field model with the aid of sufficient on-site meteorological monitoring data was the most applicable model to promptly address the trend of local wind field patterns

  1. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.

    2006-06-01

    An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The

  2. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  3. Source Apportionment and Risk Assessment of Emerging Contaminants: An Approach of Pharmaco-Signature in Water Systems

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Jheng Jie; Lee, Chon Lin; Fang, Meng Der; Boyd, Kenneth G.; Gibb, Stuart W.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology based on multivariate data analysis for characterizing potential source contributions of emerging contaminants (ECs) detected in 26 river water samples across multi-scape regions during dry and wet seasons. Based on this methodology, we unveil an approach toward potential source contributions of ECs, a concept we refer to as the “Pharmaco-signature.” Exploratory analysis of data points has been carried out by unsupervised pattern recognition (hierarchical cluster analysis, HCA) and receptor model (principal component analysis-multiple linear regression, PCA-MLR) in an attempt to demonstrate significant source contributions of ECs in different land-use zone. Robust cluster solutions grouped the database according to different EC profiles. PCA-MLR identified that 58.9% of the mean summed ECs were contributed by domestic impact, 9.7% by antibiotics application, and 31.4% by drug abuse. Diclofenac, ibuprofen, codeine, ampicillin, tetracycline, and erythromycin-H2O have significant pollution risk quotients (RQ>1), indicating potentially high risk to aquatic organisms in Taiwan. PMID:25874375

  4. Source apportionment and risk assessment of emerging contaminants: an approach of pharmaco-signature in water systems.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Jheng-Jie; Jiang, Jheng Jie; Lee, Chon-Lin; Lee, Chon Lin; Fang, Meng-Der; Fang, Meng Der; Boyd, Kenneth G; Gibb, Stuart W

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology based on multivariate data analysis for characterizing potential source contributions of emerging contaminants (ECs) detected in 26 river water samples across multi-scape regions during dry and wet seasons. Based on this methodology, we unveil an approach toward potential source contributions of ECs, a concept we refer to as the "Pharmaco-signature." Exploratory analysis of data points has been carried out by unsupervised pattern recognition (hierarchical cluster analysis, HCA) and receptor model (principal component analysis-multiple linear regression, PCA-MLR) in an attempt to demonstrate significant source contributions of ECs in different land-use zone. Robust cluster solutions grouped the database according to different EC profiles. PCA-MLR identified that 58.9% of the mean summed ECs were contributed by domestic impact, 9.7% by antibiotics application, and 31.4% by drug abuse. Diclofenac, ibuprofen, codeine, ampicillin, tetracycline, and erythromycin-H2O have significant pollution risk quotients (RQ>1), indicating potentially high risk to aquatic organisms in Taiwan. PMID:25874375

  5. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  6. Risk assessment of LAN communications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paylor, Mark A.

    1992-09-01

    The National Computer Security Center's (NCSC) Computer Security Requirements--Guidance for Applying the DOD TCSEC in Specific Environments (CSC-STD-003-85) describes an environmental evaluation process which can be utilized to determine the level of trust required in a given Local Area Network (LAN) system for processing sensitive information. This thesis investigates the environmental evaluation process and applies it to the LAN environment of a hypothetical naval aviation squadron.

  7. Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Rechard, R P

    1999-10-01

    This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator'