Risk aversion and compliance in markets for pollution control.

PubMed

Stranlund, John K

2008-07-01

This paper examines the effects of risk aversion on compliance choices in markets for pollution control. A firm's decision to be compliant or not is independent of its manager's risk preference. However, non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers will have lower violations than otherwise identical firms with risk-neutral managers. The violations of non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers are independent of differences in their profit functions and their initial allocations of permits if and only if their managers' utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion. However, firm-level characteristics do impact violation choices when managers have coefficients of absolute risk aversion that are increasing or decreasing in profit levels. Finally, in the equilibrium of a market for emissions rights with widespread non-compliance, risk aversion is associated with higher permit prices, better environmental quality, and lower aggregate violations.

Does Risk Aversion Affect Transmission and Generation Planning? A Western North America Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munoz, Francisco; van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

Here, we investigate the effects of risk aversion on optimal transmission and generation expansion planning in a competitive and complete market. To do so, we formulate a stochastic model that minimizes a weighted average of expected transmission and generation costs and their conditional value at risk (CVaR). We also show that the solution of this optimization problem is equivalent to the solution of a perfectly competitive risk-averse Stackelberg equilibrium, in which a risk-averse transmission planner maximizes welfare after which risk-averse generators maximize profits. Furthermore, this model is then applied to a 240-bus representation of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, inmore » which we examine the impact of risk aversion on levels and spatial patterns of generation and transmission investment. Although the impact of risk aversion remains small at an aggregate level, state-level impacts on generation and transmission investment can be significant, which emphasizes the importance of explicit consideration of risk aversion in planning models.« less

Does Risk Aversion Affect Transmission and Generation Planning? A Western North America Case Study

DOE PAGES

Munoz, Francisco; van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik; Hobbs, Benjamin F.; ...

2017-04-07

Here, we investigate the effects of risk aversion on optimal transmission and generation expansion planning in a competitive and complete market. To do so, we formulate a stochastic model that minimizes a weighted average of expected transmission and generation costs and their conditional value at risk (CVaR). We also show that the solution of this optimization problem is equivalent to the solution of a perfectly competitive risk-averse Stackelberg equilibrium, in which a risk-averse transmission planner maximizes welfare after which risk-averse generators maximize profits. Furthermore, this model is then applied to a 240-bus representation of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, inmore » which we examine the impact of risk aversion on levels and spatial patterns of generation and transmission investment. Although the impact of risk aversion remains small at an aggregate level, state-level impacts on generation and transmission investment can be significant, which emphasizes the importance of explicit consideration of risk aversion in planning models.« less

Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

2015-02-01

Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

Reward salience and risk aversion underlie differential ACC activity in substance dependence

PubMed Central

Alexander, William H.; Fukunaga, Rena; Finn, Peter; Brown, Joshua W.

2015-01-01

The medial prefrontal cortex, especially the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), has long been implicated in cognitive control and error processing. Although the association between ACC and behavior has been established, it is less clear how ACC contributes to dysfunctional behavior such as substance dependence. Evidence from neuroimaging studies investigating ACC function in substance users is mixed, with some studies showing disengagement of ACC in substance dependent individuals (SDs), while others show increased ACC activity related to substance use. In this study, we investigate ACC function in SDs and healthy individuals performing a change signal task for monetary rewards. Using a priori predictions derived from a recent computational model of ACC, we find that ACC activity differs between SDs and controls in factors related to reward salience and risk aversion between SDs and healthy individuals. Quantitative fits of a computational model to fMRI data reveal significant differences in best fit parameters for reward salience and risk preferences. Specifically, the ACC in SDs shows greater risk aversion, defined as concavity in the utility function, and greater attention to rewards relative to reward omission. Furthermore, across participants risk aversion and reward salience are positively correlated. The results clarify the role that ACC plays in both the reduced sensitivity to omitted rewards and greater reward valuation in SDs. Clinical implications of applying computational modeling in psychiatry are also discussed. PMID:26106528

Reward salience and risk aversion underlie differential ACC activity in substance dependence.

PubMed

Alexander, William H; Fukunaga, Rena; Finn, Peter; Brown, Joshua W

2015-01-01

The medial prefrontal cortex, especially the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), has long been implicated in cognitive control and error processing. Although the association between ACC and behavior has been established, it is less clear how ACC contributes to dysfunctional behavior such as substance dependence. Evidence from neuroimaging studies investigating ACC function in substance users is mixed, with some studies showing disengagement of ACC in substance dependent individuals (SDs), while others show increased ACC activity related to substance use. In this study, we investigate ACC function in SDs and healthy individuals performing a change signal task for monetary rewards. Using a priori predictions derived from a recent computational model of ACC, we find that ACC activity differs between SDs and controls in factors related to reward salience and risk aversion between SDs and healthy individuals. Quantitative fits of a computational model to fMRI data reveal significant differences in best fit parameters for reward salience and risk preferences. Specifically, the ACC in SDs shows greater risk aversion, defined as concavity in the utility function, and greater attention to rewards relative to reward omission. Furthermore, across participants risk aversion and reward salience are positively correlated. The results clarify the role that ACC plays in both the reduced sensitivity to omitted rewards and greater reward valuation in SDs. Clinical implications of applying computational modeling in psychiatry are also discussed.

Hiring a Gay Man, Taking a Risk?: A Lab Experiment on Employment Discrimination and Risk Aversion.

PubMed

Baert, Stijn

2018-01-01

We investigate risk aversion as a driver of labor market discrimination against homosexual men. We show that more hiring discrimination by more risk-averse employers is consistent with taste-based and statistical discrimination. To test this hypothesis we conduct a scenario experiment in which experimental employers take a fictitious hiring decision concerning a heterosexual or homosexual male job candidate. In addition, participants are surveyed on their risk aversion and other characteristics that might correlate with this risk aversion. Analysis of the (post-)experimental data confirms our hypothesis. The likelihood of a beneficial hiring decision for homosexual male candidates decreases by 31.7% when employers are a standard deviation more risk-averse.

Using Prospect Theory to Investigate Decision-Making Bias Within an Information Security Context

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

risk was acceptable, 5 when to the CA the risk was so bad...Population Proportion Lower Tail: Risk Averse (A) Coded as 0. Risk Seeking (B) Coded as 1. Ho (indifferent in risk behavior): p = . 5 Ha ( risk averse...Averse (A) Coded as 0. Risk Seeking (B) Coded as 1. Ho (indifferent in risk behavior): p = . 5 Ha ( risk averse thus significantly below . 5 ): p < . 5

Cognitive function is associated with risk aversion in community-based older persons.

PubMed

Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Laibson, David I; Bennett, David A

2011-09-11

Emerging data from younger and middle-aged persons suggest that cognitive ability is negatively associated with risk aversion, but this association has not been studied among older persons who are at high risk of experiencing loss of cognitive function. Using data from 369 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the correlates of risk aversion and tested the hypothesis that cognition is negatively associated with risk aversion. Global cognition and five specific cognitive abilities were measured via detailed cognitive testing, and risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $21.79 to $151.19 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. We first examined the bivariate associations of age, education, sex, income and cognition with risk aversion. Next, we examined the associations between cognition and risk aversion via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, and income. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure that our results were not driven by persons with preclinical cognitive impairment. In bivariate analyses, sex, education, income and global cognition were associated with risk aversion. However, in a mixed effect model, only sex (estimate = -1.49, standard error (SE) = 0.39, p < 0.001) and global cognitive function (estimate = -1.05, standard error (SE) = 0.34, p < 0.003) were significantly inversely associated with risk aversion. Thus, a lower level of global cognitive function and female sex were associated with greater risk aversion. Moreover, performance on four out of the five cognitive domains was negatively related to risk aversion (i.e., semantic memory, episodic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed); performance on visuospatial abilities was not. A lower level of cognitive ability and female sex are associated with greater risk aversion in advanced age.

Playing it safe but losing anyway – serotonergic signaling of aversive outcomes in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex in the context of risk-aversion

PubMed Central

Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina; Elliott, Rebecca; Paulson, Olaf B; Knudsen, Gitte M; Siebner, Hartwig R

2015-01-01

Risk avoidance is an important determinant of human behavior. The neurotransmitter serotonin has long been implicated in processing aversive outcomes caused by risky decisions. However, it is unclear whether serotonin provides a neurobiological link between making a risk aversive decision and the response to an aversive outcome. Using pharmacological fMRI, we manipulated the availability of serotonin in healthy volunteers while performing a gambling task. The same group of participants was studied in three fMRI sessions: (i) during intravenous administration of the SSRI citalopram to increase the serotonergic tone, (ii) after acute tryptophan depletion (ATD) to reduce central serotonin levels, or (iii) without interventions. ATD and citalopran had opposite effects on outcome related activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and amygdala. Relative to the control condition, ATD increased and citalopram decreased the neural response to aversive outcomes in dmPFC. Conversely, ATD decreased and citalopram increased the neural response to aversive outcomes in left amygdala. Critically, these pharmacological effects were restricted to aversive outcomes that were caused by low-risk decision and led to a high missed reward. ATD and citalopram did not alter the neural response to positive outcomes in dmPFC, but relative to ATD, citalopram produced a bilateral increase in the amygdala response to large wins caused by high-risk choices. The results show a selective involvement of the serotonergic system in neocortical processing of aversive outcomes resulting from risk-averse decisions, thereby linking risk aversion and processing of aversive outcomes in goal-directed behaviors. PMID:23051938

Are ambiguity aversion and ambiguity intolerance identical? A neuroeconomics investigation

PubMed Central

Tanaka, Yusuke; Fujino, Junya; Ideno, Takashi; Okubo, Shigetaka; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Miyata, Jun; Kawada, Ryosaku; Fujimoto, Shinsuke; Kubota, Manabu; Sasamoto, Akihiko; Hirose, Kimito; Takeuchi, Hideaki; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2015-01-01

In recent years, there has been growing interest in understanding a person's reaction to ambiguous situations, and two similar constructs related to ambiguity, “ambiguity aversion” and “ambiguity intolerance,” are defined in different disciplines. In the field of economic decision-making research, “ambiguity aversion” represents a preference for known risks relative to unknown risks. On the other hand, in clinical psychology, “ambiguity intolerance” describes the tendency to perceive ambiguous situations as undesirable. However, it remains unclear whether these two notions derived from different disciplines are identical or not. To clarify this issue, we combined an economic task, psychological questionnaires, and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) of structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a sample of healthy volunteers. The individual ambiguity aversion tendency parameter, as measured by our economic task, was negatively correlated with agreeableness scores on the self-reported version of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. However, it was not correlated with scores of discomfort with ambiguity, one of the subscales of the Need for Closure Scale. Furthermore, the ambiguity aversion tendency parameter was negatively correlated with gray matter (GM) volume of areas in the lateral prefrontal cortex and parietal cortex, whereas ambiguity intolerance was not correlated with GM volume in any region. Our results suggest that ambiguity aversion, described in decision theory, may not necessarily be identical to ambiguity intolerance, referred to in clinical psychology. Cautious applications of decision theory to clinical neuropsychiatry are recommended. PMID:25698984

A Survey Data Response to the Teaching of Utility Curves and Risk Aversion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobbs, Jeffrey; Sharma, Vivek

2011-01-01

In many finance and economics courses as well as in practice, the concept of risk aversion is reduced to the standard deviation of returns, whereby risk-averse investors prefer to minimize their portfolios' standard deviations. In reality, the concept of risk aversion is richer and more interesting than this, and can easily be conveyed through…

Cognitive function is associated with risk aversion in community-based older persons

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Emerging data from younger and middle-aged persons suggest that cognitive ability is negatively associated with risk aversion, but this association has not been studied among older persons who are at high risk of experiencing loss of cognitive function. Methods Using data from 369 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the correlates of risk aversion and tested the hypothesis that cognition is negatively associated with risk aversion. Global cognition and five specific cognitive abilities were measured via detailed cognitive testing, and risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $21.79 to $151.19 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. We first examined the bivariate associations of age, education, sex, income and cognition with risk aversion. Next, we examined the associations between cognition and risk aversion via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, and income. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure that our results were not driven by persons with preclinical cognitive impairment. Results In bivariate analyses, sex, education, income and global cognition were associated with risk aversion. However, in a mixed effect model, only sex (estimate = -1.49, standard error (SE) = 0.39, p < 0.001) and global cognitive function (estimate = -1.05, standard error (SE) = 0.34, p < 0.003) were significantly inversely associated with risk aversion. Thus, a lower level of global cognitive function and female sex were associated with greater risk aversion. Moreover, performance on four out of the five cognitive domains was negatively related to risk aversion (i.e., semantic memory, episodic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed); performance on visuospatial abilities was not. Conclusion A lower level of cognitive ability and female sex are associated with greater risk aversion in advanced age. PMID:21906402

Peer effects in risk aversion.

PubMed

Balsa, Ana I; Gandelman, Néstor; González, Nicolás

2015-01-01

We estimate peer effects in risk attitudes in a sample of high school students. Relative risk aversion is elicited from surveys administered at school. Identification of peer effects is based on parents not being able to choose the class within the school of their choice, and on the use of instrumental variables conditional on school-grade fixed effects. We find a significant and quantitatively large impact of peers' risk attitudes on a male individual's coefficient of risk aversion. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the group's coefficient of risk aversion increases an individual's risk aversion by 43%. Our findings shed light on the origin and stability of risk attitudes and, more generally, on the determinants of economic preferences. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Enhanced Risk Aversion, But Not Loss Aversion, in Unmedicated Pathological Anxiety.

PubMed

Charpentier, Caroline J; Aylward, Jessica; Roiser, Jonathan P; Robinson, Oliver J

2017-06-15

Anxiety disorders are associated with disruptions in both emotional processing and decision making. As a result, anxious individuals often make decisions that favor harm avoidance. However, this bias could be driven by enhanced aversion to uncertainty about the decision outcome (e.g., risk) or aversion to negative outcomes (e.g., loss). Distinguishing between these possibilities may provide a better cognitive understanding of anxiety disorders and hence inform treatment strategies. To address this question, unmedicated individuals with pathological anxiety (n = 25) and matched healthy control subjects (n = 23) completed a gambling task featuring a decision between a gamble and a safe (certain) option on every trial. Choices on one type of gamble-involving weighing a potential win against a potential loss (mixed)-could be driven by both loss and risk aversion, whereas choices on the other type-featuring only wins (gain only)-were exclusively driven by risk aversion. By fitting a computational prospect theory model to participants' choices, we were able to reliably estimate risk and loss aversion and their respective contribution to gambling decisions. Relative to healthy control subjects, pathologically anxious participants exhibited enhanced risk aversion but equivalent levels of loss aversion. Individuals with pathological anxiety demonstrate clear avoidance biases in their decision making. These findings suggest that this may be driven by a reduced propensity to take risks rather than a stronger aversion to losses. This important clarification suggests that psychological interventions for anxiety should focus on reducing risk sensitivity rather than reducing sensitivity to negative outcomes per se. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making.

PubMed

Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

2012-01-01

To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects' post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk.

The Role of Risk Aversion in Non-Conscious Decision Making

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

2012-01-01

To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects’ post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk. PMID:22375133

The origin of risk aversion

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J.; Lo, Andrew W.

2014-01-01

Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins. PMID:25453072

The origin of risk aversion.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J; Lo, Andrew W

2014-12-16

Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins.

Cross-sectional survey: risk-averse French general practitioners are more favorable toward influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Massin, Sophie; Ventelou, Bruno; Nebout, Antoine; Verger, Pierre; Pulcini, Céline

2015-01-29

We tested the following hypotheses: (i) risk-averse general practitioners (GPs) are more likely to be vaccinated against influenza; (ii) and risk-averse GPs recommend influenza vaccination more often to their patients. In risk-averse GPs, the perceived benefits of the vaccine and/or the perceived risks of the infectious disease might indeed outweigh the perceived risks of the vaccine. In 2010-2012, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of a nationwide French representative sample of 1136 GPs. Multivariate analyses adjusted for four stratification variables (age, gender, urban/suburban/rural practice location and annual patient consultations) and for GPs' characteristics (group/solo practice, and occasional practice of alternative medicine, e.g., homeopathy) looked for associations between their risk attitudes and self-reported vaccination behavior. Individual risk attitudes were expressed as a continuous variable, from 0 (risk-tolerant) to 10 (risk-averse). Overall, 69% of GPs reported that they were very favorable toward vaccination in general. Self-reported vaccination coverage was 78% for 2009/2010 seasonal influenza and 62% for A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. Most GPs (72%) reported recommending the pandemic influenza vaccination to at-risk young adults in 2009, but few than half (42%) to young adults not at risk. In multivariate analyses, risk-averse GPs were more often vaccinated against seasonal (marginal effect=1.3%, P=0.02) and pandemic influenza (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.02). Risk-averse GPs recommended the pandemic influenza vaccination more often than their more risk-tolerant colleagues to patients without risk factors (marginal effect=1.7%, P=0.01), but not to their at-risk patients and were more favorable toward vaccination in general (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.04). Individual risk attitudes may influence GPs' practices regarding influenza vaccination, both for themselves and their patients. Our results suggest that risk-averse GPs may perceive the risks of influenza to outweigh the potential risks related to the vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Loss aversion and 5HTT gene variants in adolescent anxiety.

PubMed

Ernst, Monique; Plate, Rista C; Carlisi, Christina O; Gorodetsky, Elena; Goldman, David; Pine, Daniel S

2014-04-01

Loss aversion, a well-documented behavioral phenomenon, characterizes decisions under risk in adult populations. As such, loss aversion may provide a reliable measure of risky behavior. Surprisingly, little is known about loss aversion in adolescents, a group who manifests risk-taking behavior, or in anxiety disorders, which are associated with risk-avoidance. Finally, loss aversion is expected to be modulated by genotype, particularly the serotonin transporter (SERT) gene variant, based on its role in anxiety and impulsivity. This genetic modulation may also differ between anxious and healthy adolescents, given their distinct propensities for risk taking. The present work examines the modulation of loss aversion, an index of risk-taking, and reaction-time to decision, an index of impulsivity, by the serotonin-transporter-gene-linked polymorphisms (5HTTLPR) in healthy and clinically anxious adolescents. Findings show that loss aversion (1) does manifest in adolescents, (2) does not differ between healthy and clinically anxious participants, and (3), when stratified by SERT genotype, identifies a subset of anxious adolescents who are high SERT-expressers, and show excessively low loss-aversion and high impulsivity. This last finding may serve as preliminary evidence for 5HTTLPR as a risk factor for the development of comorbid disorders associated with risk-taking and impulsivity in clinically anxious adolescents. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Differences in Risk Aversion between Young and Older Adults.

PubMed

Albert, Steven M; Duffy, John

2012-01-15

Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision-making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than younger adults (p < .05) and also had a higher discount rate (15.6-21.0% vs. 10.3-15.5%, p < .01), indicating lower expected utility from future income. Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision-making across the lifespan.

Differences in Risk Aversion between Young and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Albert, Steven M.; Duffy, John

2013-01-01

Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision-making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than younger adults (p < .05) and also had a higher discount rate (15.6-21.0% vs. 10.3-15.5%, p < .01), indicating lower expected utility from future income. Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision-making across the lifespan. PMID:24319671

Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons

PubMed Central

Boyle, Patricia A.; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S.; Bennett, David A.

2012-01-01

Background: Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Method: Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. Findings: In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = −1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Conclusion: Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions. PMID:22754545

Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons.

PubMed

Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

2012-01-01

Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = -1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions.

Leptokurtic portfolio theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitt, R.; Kalda, J.

2006-03-01

The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurtic, because it minimises the effects from “fat tails” of returns. The leptokurtic portfolio theory provides an optimal portfolio for investors, who define their risk-aversion as unwillingness to experience sharp drawdowns in asset prices. Two types of risks in asset returns are defined: a fluctuation risk, that has Gaussian distribution, and a drawdown risk, that deals with distribution tails. These risks are quantitatively measured by defining the “noise kernel” — an ellipsoidal cloud of points in the space of asset returns. The size of the ellipse is controlled with the threshold parameter: the larger the threshold parameter, the larger return are accepted for investors as normal fluctuations. The return vectors falling into the kernel are used for calculation of fluctuation risk. Analogously, the data points falling outside the kernel are used for the calculation of drawdown risks. As a result the portfolio optimisation problem becomes three-dimensional: in addition to the return, there are two types of risks involved. Optimal portfolio for drawdown-averse investors is the portfolio minimising variance outside the noise kernel. The theory has been tested with MSCI North America, Europe and Pacific total return stock indices.

Long-Run Savings and Investment Strategy Optimization

PubMed Central

Gerrard, Russell; Guillén, Montserrat; Pérez-Marín, Ana M.

2014-01-01

We focus on automatic strategies to optimize life cycle savings and investment. Classical optimal savings theory establishes that, given the level of risk aversion, a saver would keep the same relative amount invested in risky assets at any given time. We show that, when optimizing lifecycle investment, performance and risk assessment have to take into account the investor's risk aversion and the maximum amount the investor could lose, simultaneously. When risk aversion and maximum possible loss are considered jointly, an optimal savings strategy is obtained, which follows from constant rather than relative absolute risk aversion. This result is fundamental to prove that if risk aversion and the maximum possible loss are both high, then holding a constant amount invested in the risky asset is optimal for a standard lifetime saving/pension process and outperforms some other simple strategies. Performance comparisons are based on downside risk-adjusted equivalence that is used in our illustration. PMID:24711728

Long-run savings and investment strategy optimization.

PubMed

Gerrard, Russell; Guillén, Montserrat; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

2014-01-01

We focus on automatic strategies to optimize life cycle savings and investment. Classical optimal savings theory establishes that, given the level of risk aversion, a saver would keep the same relative amount invested in risky assets at any given time. We show that, when optimizing lifecycle investment, performance and risk assessment have to take into account the investor's risk aversion and the maximum amount the investor could lose, simultaneously. When risk aversion and maximum possible loss are considered jointly, an optimal savings strategy is obtained, which follows from constant rather than relative absolute risk aversion. This result is fundamental to prove that if risk aversion and the maximum possible loss are both high, then holding a constant amount invested in the risky asset is optimal for a standard lifetime saving/pension process and outperforms some other simple strategies. Performance comparisons are based on downside risk-adjusted equivalence that is used in our illustration.

Managing Risk Aversion for Low-Carbon Supply Chains with Emission Abatement Outsourcing.

PubMed

Wang, Qinpeng; He, Longfei

2018-02-21

Reducing carbon emissions, including emission abatement outsourcing at the supply-chain level, is becoming a significant but challenging problem in practice. Confronting this challenge, we therefore break down the practice to focus on a low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier, one manufacturer and one third-party emission-reducing contractor. The contractor offers a carbon reduction service to the manufacturer. In view of the increasing proportion of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions and absence of carbon reduction policies in developing countries, we adopt the prospect of consumers' low-carbon preferences to capture the demand sensitivity on carbon emission. By exploiting the Mean-Variance (MV) model, we develop a supply chain game model considering risk aversion. Comparing the supply chain performances of the cases under risk neutrality and risk aversion, we investigate the impact of the risk aversion of the supplier and the manufacturer on the low-carbon supply chain performances, respectively. We show that the risk aversion of chain members will not influence the relationship underlain by the profit-sharing contract between the manufacturer and contractor, whereas they may extend the supplier's concerning range. Although the manufacturer's risk aversion has a positive impact on the wholesale price, interestingly, the supplier's impact on the wholesale price is negative. Furthermore, we propose a contract to coordinate the risk-averse low-carbon supply chain by tuning the aversion levels of the supplier and the manufacturer, respectively. Through numerical study, we draw on managerial insights for industrial practitioners to adopt a low carbon strategy potentially by managing the risk attitudes along the supply chain channel.

Managing Risk Aversion for Low-Carbon Supply Chains with Emission Abatement Outsourcing

PubMed Central

Wang, Qinpeng; He, Longfei

2018-01-01

Reducing carbon emissions, including emission abatement outsourcing at the supply-chain level, is becoming a significant but challenging problem in practice. Confronting this challenge, we therefore break down the practice to focus on a low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier, one manufacturer and one third-party emission-reducing contractor. The contractor offers a carbon reduction service to the manufacturer. In view of the increasing proportion of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions and absence of carbon reduction policies in developing countries, we adopt the prospect of consumers’ low-carbon preferences to capture the demand sensitivity on carbon emission. By exploiting the Mean-Variance (MV) model, we develop a supply chain game model considering risk aversion. Comparing the supply chain performances of the cases under risk neutrality and risk aversion, we investigate the impact of the risk aversion of the supplier and the manufacturer on the low-carbon supply chain performances, respectively. We show that the risk aversion of chain members will not influence the relationship underlain by the profit-sharing contract between the manufacturer and contractor, whereas they may extend the supplier’s concerning range. Although the manufacturer’s risk aversion has a positive impact on the wholesale price, interestingly, the supplier’s impact on the wholesale price is negative. Furthermore, we propose a contract to coordinate the risk-averse low-carbon supply chain by tuning the aversion levels of the supplier and the manufacturer, respectively. Through numerical study, we draw on managerial insights for industrial practitioners to adopt a low carbon strategy potentially by managing the risk attitudes along the supply chain channel. PMID:29466281

Neural intrinsic connectivity networks associated with risk aversion in old age.

PubMed

Han, S Duke; Boyle, Patricia A; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; Fleischman, Debra A; Yu, Lei; Edmonds, Emily C; Bennett, David A

2012-02-01

Risk aversion is associated with several important real world outcomes. Although the neurobiological correlates of risk aversion have been studied in young persons, little is known of the neurobiological correlates of risk aversion among older persons. Resting-state functional MRI data were collected on 134 non-demented participants of the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a community-based cohort study of aging. Risk aversion was measured using a series of standard questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing, with potential gains varied across questions. Participants determined to be "high" (n=27) and "low" (n=27) in risk aversion were grouped accordingly. Using a spherical seed region of interest in the anterior cingulate cortex, voxel-wise functional connectivity network similarities were observed in bilateral frontal, anterior and posterior cingulate, insula, basal ganglia, temporal, parietal, and thalamic regions. Differences in functional connectivity were observed such that those low in risk aversion had greater connectivity to clusters in the superior, middle, and medial frontal regions, as well as cerebellar, parietal, occipital, and inferior temporal regions. Those high in risk aversion had greater connectivity to clusters in the inferior and orbital frontal, parahippocampal, and insula regions, as well as thalamic, parietal, precentral gyrus, postcentral gyrus, and middle temporal regions. Similarities and differences in functional connectivity patterns may reflect the historical recruitment of specific brain regions as a network in the active processing of risk in older adults. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural Intrinsic Connectivity Networks Associated with Risk Aversion in Old Age

PubMed Central

Han, S. Duke; Boyle, Patricia A.; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; Fleischman, Debra A.; Yu, Lei; Edmonds, Emily C.; Bennett, David A.

2011-01-01

Risk aversion is associated with several important real world outcomes. Although the neurobiological correlates of risk aversion have been studied in young persons, little is known of the neurobiological correlates of risk aversion among older persons. Resting-state functional MRI data were collected on 134 non-demented participants of the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a community-based cohort study of aging. Risk aversion was measured using a series of standard questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing, with potential gains varied across questions. Participants determined to be “high” (n=27) and “low” (n=27) in risk aversion were grouped accordingly. Using a spherical seed region of interest in the anterior cingulate cortex, voxel-wise functional connectivity network similarities were observed in bilateral frontal, anterior and posterior cingulate, insula, basal ganglia, temporal, parietal, and thalamic regions. Differences in functional connectivity were observed such that those low in risk aversion had greater connectivity to clusters in the superior, middle, and medial frontal regions, as well as cerebellar, parietal, occipital, and inferior temporal regions. Those high in risk aversion had greater connectivity to clusters in the inferior and orbital frontal, parahippocampal, and insula regions, as well as thalamic, parietal, precentral gyrus, postcentral gyrus, and middle temporal regions. Similarities and differences in functional connectivity patterns may reflect the historical recruitment of specific brain regions as a network in the active processing of risk in older adults. PMID:22044475

Repeatable aversion across threat types is linked with life-history traits but is dependent on how aversion is measured.

PubMed

Davidson, Gabrielle L; Reichert, Michael S; Crane, Jodie M S; O'Shea, William; Quinn, John L

2018-02-01

Personality research suggests that individual differences in risk aversion may be explained by links with life-history variation. However, few empirical studies examine whether repeatable differences in risk avoidance behaviour covary with life-history traits among individuals in natural populations, or how these links vary depending on the context and the way risk aversion is measured. We measured two different risk avoidance behaviours (latency to enter the nest and inspection time) in wild great tits ( Parus major ) in two different contexts-response to a novel object and to a predator cue placed at the nest-box during incubation---and related these behaviours to female reproductive success and condition. Females responded equally strongly to both stimuli, and although both behaviours were repeatable, they did not correlate. Latency to enter was negatively related to body condition and the number of offspring fledged. By contrast, inspection time was directly explained by whether incubating females had been flushed from the nest before the trial began. Thus, our inferences on the relationship between risk aversion and fitness depend on how risk aversion was measured. Our results highlight the limitations of drawing conclusions about the relevance of single measures of a personality trait such as risk aversion.

Neurocognitive Development of Risk Aversion from Early Childhood to Adulthood

PubMed Central

Paulsen, David J.; Carter, R. McKell; Platt, Michael L.; Huettel, Scott A.; Brannon, Elizabeth M.

2012-01-01

Human adults tend to avoid risk. In behavioral economic studies, risk aversion is manifest as a preference for sure gains over uncertain gains. However, children tend to be less averse to risk than adults. Given that many of the brain regions supporting decision-making under risk do not reach maturity until late adolescence or beyond it is possible that mature risk-averse behavior may emerge from the development of decision-making circuitry. To explore this hypothesis, we tested 5- to 8-year-old children, 14- to 16-year-old adolescents, and young adults in a risky-decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquisition. To our knowledge, this is the youngest sample of children in an fMRI decision-making task. We found a number of decision-related brain regions to increase in activation with age during decision-making, including areas associated with contextual memory retrieval and the incorporation of prior outcomes into the current decision-making strategy, e.g., insula, hippocampus, and amygdala. Further, children who were more risk-averse showed increased activation during decision-making in ventromedial prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum. Our findings indicate that the emergence of adult levels of risk aversion co-occurs with the recruitment of regions supporting decision-making under risk, including the integration of prior outcomes into current decision-making behavior. This pattern of results suggests that individual differences in the development of risk aversion may reflect differences in the maturation of these neural processes. PMID:22291627

Neurocognitive development of risk aversion from early childhood to adulthood.

PubMed

Paulsen, David J; Carter, R McKell; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

2011-01-01

Human adults tend to avoid risk. In behavioral economic studies, risk aversion is manifest as a preference for sure gains over uncertain gains. However, children tend to be less averse to risk than adults. Given that many of the brain regions supporting decision-making under risk do not reach maturity until late adolescence or beyond it is possible that mature risk-averse behavior may emerge from the development of decision-making circuitry. To explore this hypothesis, we tested 5- to 8-year-old children, 14- to 16-year-old adolescents, and young adults in a risky-decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquisition. To our knowledge, this is the youngest sample of children in an fMRI decision-making task. We found a number of decision-related brain regions to increase in activation with age during decision-making, including areas associated with contextual memory retrieval and the incorporation of prior outcomes into the current decision-making strategy, e.g., insula, hippocampus, and amygdala. Further, children who were more risk-averse showed increased activation during decision-making in ventromedial prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum. Our findings indicate that the emergence of adult levels of risk aversion co-occurs with the recruitment of regions supporting decision-making under risk, including the integration of prior outcomes into current decision-making behavior. This pattern of results suggests that individual differences in the development of risk aversion may reflect differences in the maturation of these neural processes.

An evolutionary game model for behavioral gambit of loyalists: Global awareness and risk-aversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfinito, E.; Barra, A.; Beccaria, M.; Fachechi, A.; Macorini, G.

2018-02-01

We study the phase diagram of a minority game where three classes of agents are present. Two types of agents play a risk-loving game that we model by the standard Snowdrift Game. The behaviour of the third type of agents is coded by indifference with respect to the game at all: their dynamics is designed to account for risk-aversion as an innovative behavioral gambit. From this point of view, the choice of this solitary strategy is enhanced when innovation starts, while is depressed when it becomes the majority option. This implies that the payoff matrix of the game becomes dependent on the global awareness of the agents measured by the relevance of the population of the indifferent players. The resulting dynamics is nontrivial with different kinds of phase transition depending on a few model parameters. The phase diagram is studied on regular as well as complex networks.

Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 2: Mitigation Strategies.

PubMed

Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

2017-12-01

Part 1 of this review summarizes the consequences of risk aversion and the observational studies and surveys relevant to this phenomenon, almost all of which are derived from cardiac surgery and interventional cardiology. In Part 2, we describe the root cause of risk aversion-the belief by providers that current risk adjustment is inadequate to account for the severity of their highest-risk patients, thereby prejudicing their publicly reported performance scores. Evidence supporting the robustness of current risk adjustment is presented, as well as nine potential strategies to further mitigate risk aversion: optimization of data source, risk models, and performance measures; exclusion of high-risk patients; exclusion of non-procedure-related end points; separate reporting of high-risk patients; reporting by condition or diagnosis rather than by procedures; reporting at the hospital or program level rather than the physician level; collaborative, cross-disciplinary decision making; active surveillance for risk aversion; and improved stakeholder education. Of these, the first is most desirable, widely applicable, and resistant to gaming. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neural loss aversion differences between depression patients and healthy individuals: A functional MRI investigation.

PubMed

Chandrasekhar Pammi, V S; Pillai Geethabhavan Rajesh, Purushothaman; Kesavadas, Chandrasekharan; Rappai Mary, Paramban; Seema, Satish; Radhakrishnan, Ashalatha; Sitaram, Ranganatha

2015-04-01

Neuroeconomics employs neuroscience techniques to explain decision-making behaviours. Prospect theory, a prominent model of decision-making, features a value function with parameters for risk and loss aversion. Recent work with normal participants identified activation related to loss aversion in brain regions including the amygdala, ventral striatum, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. However, the brain network for loss aversion in pathologies such as depression has yet to be identified. The aim of the current study is to employ the value function from prospect theory to examine behavioural and neural manifestations of loss aversion in depressed and healthy individuals to identify the neurobiological markers of loss aversion in economic behaviour. We acquired behavioural data and fMRI scans while healthy controls and patients with depression performed an economic decision-making task. Behavioural loss aversion was higher in patients with depression than in healthy controls. fMRI results revealed that the two groups shared a brain network for value function including right ventral striatum, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and right amygdala. However, the neural loss aversion results revealed greater activations in the right dorsal striatum and the right anterior insula for controls compared with patients with depression, and higher activations in the midbrain region ventral tegmental area for patients with depression compared with controls. These results suggest that while the brain network for loss aversion is shared between depressed and healthy individuals, some differences exist with respect to differential activation of additional areas. Our findings are relevant to identifying neurobiological markers for altered decision-making in the depressed. © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Risk seeking for losses modulates the functional connectivity of the default mode and left frontoparietal networks in young males.

PubMed

Deza Araujo, Yacila I; Nebe, Stephan; Neukam, Philipp T; Pooseh, Shakoor; Sebold, Miriam; Garbusow, Maria; Heinz, Andreas; Smolka, Michael N

2018-06-01

Value-based decision making (VBDM) is a principle that states that humans and other species adapt their behavior according to the dynamic subjective values of the chosen or unchosen options. The neural bases of this process have been extensively investigated using task-based fMRI and lesion studies. However, the growing field of resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) may shed light on the organization and function of brain connections across different decision-making domains. With this aim, we used independent component analysis to study the brain network dynamics in a large cohort of young males (N = 145) and the relationship of these dynamics with VBDM. Participants completed a battery of behavioral tests that evaluated delay aversion, risk seeking for losses, risk aversion for gains, and loss aversion, followed by an RSFC scan session. We identified a set of large-scale brain networks and conducted our analysis only on the default mode network (DMN) and networks comprising cognitive control, appetitive-driven, and reward-processing regions. Higher risk seeking for losses was associated with increased connectivity between medial temporal regions, frontal regions, and the DMN. Higher risk seeking for losses was also associated with increased coupling between the left frontoparietal network and occipital cortices. These associations illustrate the participation of brain regions involved in prospective thinking, affective decision making, and visual processing in participants who are greater risk-seekers, and they demonstrate the sensitivity of RSFC to detect brain connectivity differences associated with distinct VBDM parameters.

Alcohol reduces aversion to ambiguity.

PubMed

Tyszka, Tadeusz; Macko, Anna; Stańczak, Maciej

2014-01-01

Several years ago, Cohen et al. (1958) demonstrated that under the influence of alcohol drivers became more risk prone, although their risk perception remained unchanged. Research shows that ambiguity aversion is to some extent positively correlated with risk aversion, though not very highly (Camerer and Weber, 1992). The question addressed by the present research is whether alcohol reduces ambiguity aversion. Our research was conducted in a natural setting (a restaurant bar), where customers with differing levels of alcohol intoxication were offered a choice between a risky and an ambiguous lottery. We found that alcohol reduced ambiguity aversion and that the effect occurred in men but not women. We interpret these findings in terms of the risk-as-value hypothesis, according to which, people in Western culture tend to value risk, and suggest that alcohol consumption triggers adherence to socially and culturally valued patterns of conduct different for men and women.

Characterizing the genetic influences on risk aversion.

PubMed

Harrati, Amal

2014-01-01

Risk aversion has long been cited as an important factor in retirement decisions, investment behavior, and health. Some of the heterogeneity in individual risk tolerance is well understood, reflecting age gradients, wealth gradients, and similar effects, but much remains unexplained. This study explores genetic contributions to heterogeneity in risk aversion among older Americans. Using over 2 million genetic markers per individual from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on risk preferences using a sample of 10,455 adults. None of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are found to be statistically significant determinants of risk preferences at levels stricter than 5 × 10(-8). These results suggest that risk aversion is a complex trait that is highly polygenic. The analysis leads to upper bounds on the number of genetic effects that could exceed certain thresholds of significance and still remain undetected at the current sample size. The findings suggest that the known heritability in risk aversion is likely to be driven by large numbers of genetic variants, each with a small effect size.

Twins less frequent than expected among male births in risk averse populations.

PubMed

Karasek, Deborah; Goodman, Julia; Gemmill, Alison; Falconi, April; Hartig, Terry; Magganas, Aristotle; Catalano, Ralph

2015-06-01

Male twin gestations exhibit higher incidence of fetal morbidity and mortality than singleton gestations. From an evolutionary perspective, the relatively high rates of infant and child mortality among male twins born into threatening environments reduce the fitness of these gestations, making them more vulnerable to fetal loss. Women do not perceive choosing to spontaneously abort gestations although the outcome may result from estimates, made without awareness, of the risks of continuing a pregnancy. Here, we examine whether the non-conscious decisional biology of gestation can be linked to conscious risk aversion. We test this speculation by measuring the association between household surveys in Sweden that gauge financial risk aversion in the population and the frequency of twins among live male births. We used time-series regression methods to estimate our suspected associations and Box-Jenkins modeling to ensure that autocorrelation did not confound the estimation or reduce its efficiency. We found, consistent with theory, that financial risk aversion in the population correlates inversely with the odds of a twin among Swedish males born two months later. The odds of a twin among males fell by approximately 3.5% two months after unexpectedly great risk aversion in the population. This work implies that shocks that affect population risk aversion carry implications for fetal loss in vulnerable twin pregnancies.

The risks of risk aversion in drug regulation.

PubMed

Eichler, Hans-Georg; Bloechl-Daum, Brigitte; Brasseur, Daniel; Breckenridge, Alasdair; Leufkens, Hubert; Raine, June; Salmonson, Tomas; Schneider, Christian K; Rasi, Guido

2013-12-01

Drugs are approved by regulatory agencies on the basis of their assessment of whether the available evidence indicates that the benefits of the drug outweigh its risks. In recent years, regulatory agencies have been criticized both for being overly tolerant of risks or being excessively risk-averse, which reflects the challenge in determining an appropriate balance between benefit and risk with the limited data that is typically available before drug approval. The negative consequences of regulatory tolerance in allowing drugs onto the market that turn out to be unsafe are obvious, but the potential for adverse effects on public health owing to the absence of new drugs because of regulatory risk-aversion is less apparent. Here, we discuss the consequences of regulatory risk-aversion for public health and suggest what might be done to best align acceptance of risk and uncertainty by regulators with the interests of public health.

Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 1: Observations From Cardiac Surgery and Interventional Cardiology.

PubMed

Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

2017-12-01

Risk aversion is a potential unintended consequence of health care public reporting. In Part 1 of this review, four possible consequences of this phenomenon are discussed, including the denial of interventions to some high-risk patients, stifling of innovation, appropriate avoidance of futile interventions, and better matching of high-risk patients to more capable providers. We also summarize relevant observational clinical reports and survey results from cardiovascular medicine and surgery, the two specialties from which almost all risk aversion observations have been derived. Although these demonstrate that risk aversion does occur, the empirical data are much more consistent and compelling for interventional cardiology than for cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low- and high-testosterone individuals exhibit decreased aversion to economic risk.

PubMed

Stanton, Steven J; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A; McLaurin, R Edward; Kuhn, Cynthia M; LaBar, Kevin S; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A

2011-04-01

Testosterone is positively associated with risk-taking behavior in social domains (e.g., crime, physical aggression). However, the scant research linking testosterone to economic risk preferences presents inconsistent findings. We examined the relationship between endogenous testosterone and individuals' economic preferences (i.e., risk preference, ambiguity preference, and loss aversion) in a large sample (N = 298) of men and women. We found that endogenous testosterone levels have a significant U-shaped association with individuals' risk and ambiguity preferences, but not loss aversion. Specifically, individuals with low or high levels of testosterone (more than 1.5 SD from the mean for their gender) were risk and ambiguity neutral, whereas individuals with intermediate levels of testosterone were risk and ambiguity averse. This relationship was highly similar in men and women. In contrast to received wisdom regarding testosterone and risk, the present data provide the first robust evidence for a nonlinear association between economic preferences and levels of endogenous testosterone.

Heightened aversion to risk and loss in depressed patients with a suicide attempt history.

PubMed

Baek, Kwangyeol; Kwon, JaeHyung; Chae, Jeong-Ho; Chung, Yong An; Kralik, Jerald D; Min, Jung-Ah; Huh, HyuJung; Choi, Kyung Mook; Jang, Kuk-In; Lee, Na-Bin; Kim, Sunyoung; Peterson, Bradley S; Jeong, Jaeseung

2017-09-11

Suicide attempters have been found to be impaired in decision-making; however, their specific biases in evaluating uncertain outcomes remain unclear. Here we tested the hypothesis that suicidal behavior is associated with heightened aversion to risk and loss, which might produce negative predictions about uncertain future events. Forty-five depressed patients with a suicide attempt history, 47 nonsuicidal depressed patients, and 75 healthy controls participated in monetary decision-making tasks assessing risk and loss aversion. Suicide attempters compared with the other groups exhibited greater aversion to both risk and loss during gambles involving potential loss. Risk and loss aversion correlated with each other in the depressed patients, suggesting that a common pathophysiological mechanism underlies these biases. In addition, emotion regulation via suppression, a detrimental emotional control strategy, was positively correlated with loss aversion in the depressed patients, also implicating impairment in regulatory processes. A preliminary fMRI study also found disrupted neural responses to potential gains and losses in the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex, insula cortex, and left amygdala, brain regions involved in valuation, emotion reactivity, and emotion regulation. The findings thus implicate heightened negative valuation in decision-making under risk, and impaired emotion regulation in depressed patients with a history of suicide attempts.

Gender Differences in Risk Aversion Among Chinese University Students.

PubMed

Lam, Desmond

2015-12-01

This paper examines gender differences in risk aversion among Chinese university students. Chinese females are proposed to be more risk averse and require a higher risk premium when faced with a gamble option in the gain-domain frame as compared to Chinese males. Two groups of 100 participants each (male = 100 and female = 100 in total) were recruited to fill up questionnaires that included items relating to objective probability lotteries. Within each group, it was found that Chinese males and females did not differ in their risk aversion. However, results show that Chinese males tend to react more readily to rising risk premium by taking up options with higher expected values when compared to Chinese females. Current findings will have useful implications to marketers (particularly, promoters of gambling products) and problem gambling counselors.

Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

2001-01-01

We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.

Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

2017-01-01

Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making. PMID:28966604

Individual differences in loss aversion and preferences for skewed risks across adulthood.

PubMed

Seaman, Kendra L; Green, Mikella A; Shu, Stephen; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R

2018-06-01

In a previous study, we found adult age differences in the tendency to accept more positively skewed gambles (with a small chance of a large win) than other equivalent risks, or an age-related positive-skew bias. In the present study, we examined whether loss aversion explained this bias. A total of 508 healthy participants (ages 21-82) completed measures of loss aversion and skew preference. Age was not related to loss aversion. Although loss aversion was a significant predictor of gamble acceptance, it did not influence the age-related positive-skew bias. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M

2010-04-01

This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

Stated and revealed inequality aversion in three subject pools

PubMed Central

Beranek, Benjamin; Cubitt, Robin; Gächter, Simon

2016-01-01

This paper reports data from three subject pools (n=717 subjects) using techniques based on those of Loewenstein, et al. (1989) and Blanco, et al. (2011) to obtain parameters, respectively, of stated and revealed inequality aversion. We provide a replication opportunity for those papers, with two innovations: (i) a design which allows stated and revealed preferences to be compared at the individual level; (ii) assessment of robustness of findings across subjects from a UK university, a Turkish university and Amazon Mechanical Turk. Our findings on stated aversion to inequality are qualitatively similar to those of Loewenstein, et al. in each of our subject pools, whereas there are notable differences between some of our findings on revealed preference and those of Blanco, et al. We find that revealed advantageous inequality aversion is often stronger than revealed dis-advantageous inequality aversion. In most subject pools, we find some (weak) correlation between corresponding parameters of stated and revealed inequality aversion. PMID:27069847

Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2015-10-01

Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Framing effects and risky decisions in starlings.

PubMed

Marsh, Barnaby; Kacelnik, Alex

2002-03-05

Animals are predominantly risk prone toward reward delays and risk averse toward reward amounts. Humans in turn tend to be risk-seeking for losses and risk averse for gains. To explain the human results, Prospect Theory postulates a convex utility for losses and concave utility for gains. In contrast, Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) explains the animal data by postulating that the cognitive representation of outcomes follows Weber's Law, namely that the spread of the distribution of expected outcomes is proportional to its mean. SUT also would explain human results if utility (even if it is linear on expected outcome) followed Weber's Law. We present an experiment that simulates losses and gains in a bird, the European Starling, to test the implication of SUT that risk proneness/aversion should extend to any aversive/desirable dimension other than time and amount of reward. Losses and gains were simulated by offering choices of fixed vs. variable outcomes with lower or higher outcomes than what the birds expected. The subjects were significantly more risk prone for losses than for gains but, against expectations, they were not significantly risk averse toward gains. The results are thus, in part, consistent with Prospect Theory and SUT and show that risk attitude in humans and birds may obey a common fundamental principle.

Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns.

PubMed

Berardi, Michele

2016-01-01

Stylized facts about statistical properties for short horizon returns in financial markets have been identified in the literature, but a satisfactory understanding for their manifestation is yet to be achieved. In this work, we show that a simple asset pricing model with representative agent is able to generate time series of returns that replicate such stylized facts if the risk aversion coefficient is allowed to change endogenously over time in response to unexpected excess returns under evolutionary forces. The same model, under constant risk aversion, would instead generate returns that are essentially Gaussian. We conclude that an endogenous time-varying risk aversion represents a very parsimonious way to make the model match real data on key statistical properties, and therefore deserves careful consideration from economists and practitioners alike.

Climate policy: Risk-averse governments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Paul G.

2014-04-01

Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure.

Patient risk perceptions for carotid endarterectomy: which patients are strongly averse to surgery?

PubMed

Bosworth, Hayden B; Stechuchak, Karen M; Grambow, Steven C; Oddone, Eugene Z

2004-07-01

Patient risk perception for surgery may be central to their willingness to undergo surgery. This study examined potential factors associated with patient aversion of surgery. This is a secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study that examined patients referred for evaluation of carotid artery stenosis at five Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. The study collected demographic, clinical, and psychosocial information related to surgery. This analysis focused on patient response to a question assessing their aversion to surgery. Among the 1065 individuals, at the time of evaluation for carotid endarterectomy (CEA), 66% of patients had no symptoms, 16% had a transient ischemic attack, and 18% had stroke. Twelve percent of patients referred for CEA evaluation were averse to surgery. In adjusted analyses, increased age, black race, no previous surgery, lower level of chance locus of control, less trust of physicians, and less social support were significantly related to greater likelihood of surgery aversion among individuals referred for CEA evaluation. Patient degree of medical comorbidity and a validated measure of preoperative risk score were not associated with increased aversion to surgery. In previous work, aversion to CEA was associated with lack of receipt of CEA even after accounting for patient clinical appropriateness for surgery. We identified important patient characteristics associated with aversion to CEA. Interventions designed to assist patient decision making should focus on these more complex factors related to CEA aversion rather than the simple explanation of clinical usefulness.

Individual Differences in Risk Perception versus Risk Taking: Handedness and Interhemispheric Interaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christman, Stephen D.; Jasper, John D.; Sontam, Varalakshmi; Cooil, Bruce

2007-01-01

Research indicates that right-hemisphere mechanisms are specifically sensitive to and averse to risk. Research also indicates that mixed degree of handedness is associated with increased access to right hemisphere processing. Accordingly, it was predicted that mixed-handers would exhibit greater risk aversion. Participants were presented with…

Predicting Cancer-Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions.

PubMed

Riddel, Mary; Hales, David

2018-05-16

Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert-assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects' tendencies to engage in cancer-risk-reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects' control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Heterogeneity of Loss Aversion in Pathological Gambling.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Hideaki; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Yokoyama, Naoto; Takemura, Ariyoshi; Murao, Takuro; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2016-12-01

Pathological gambling (PG) is characterized by continual repeated gambling behavior despite negative consequences. PG is considered to be a disorder of altered decision-making under risk, and behavioral economics tools were utilized by studies on decision-making under risk. At the same time, PG was suggested to be a heterogeneous disorder in terms of personality traits as well as risk attitude. We aimed to examine the heterogeneity of PG in terms of loss aversion, which means that a loss is subjectively felt to be larger than the same amount of gain. Thirty-one male PG subjects and 26 male healthy control (HC) subjects underwent a behavioral economics task for estimation of loss aversion and personality traits assessment. Although loss aversion in PG subjects was not significantly different from that in HC subjects, distributions of loss aversion differed between PG and HC subjects. HC subjects were uniformly classified into three levels (low, middle, high) of loss aversion, whereas PG subjects were mostly classified into the two extremes, and few PG subjects were classified into the middle range. PG subjects with low and high loss aversion showed a significant difference in anxiety, excitement-seeking and craving intensity. Our study suggested that PG was a heterogeneous disorder in terms of loss aversion. This result might be useful for understanding cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms and the establishment of treatment strategies for PG.

Five-year-olds do not show ambiguity aversion in a risk and ambiguity task with physical objects.

PubMed

Li, Rosa; Roberts, Rachel C; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

2017-07-01

Ambiguity aversion arises when a decision maker prefers risky gambles with known probabilities over equivalent ambiguous gambles with unknown probabilities. This phenomenon has been consistently observed in adults across a large body of empirical work. Evaluating ambiguity aversion in young children, however, has posed methodological challenges because probabilistic representations appropriate for adults might not be understood by young children. Here, we established a novel method for representing risk and ambiguity with physical objects that overcomes previous methodological limitations and allows us to measure ambiguity aversion in young children. We found that individual 5-year-olds exhibited consistent choice preferences and, as a group, exhibited no ambiguity aversion in a task that evokes ambiguity aversion in adults. Across individuals, 5-year-olds exhibited greater variance in ambiguity preferences compared with adults tested under similar conditions. This suggests that ambiguity aversion is absent during early childhood and emerges over the course of development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase levels during an assessment procedure correlate differently with risk-taking measures in male and female police recruits

PubMed Central

van den Bos, Ruud; Taris, Ruben; Scheppink, Bianca; de Haan, Lydia; Verster, Joris C.

2013-01-01

Recent laboratory studies have shown that men display more risk-taking behavior in decision-making tasks following stress, whilst women are more risk-aversive or become more task-focused. In addition, these studies have shown that sex differences are related to levels of the stress hormone cortisol (indicative of activation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical-axis): the higher the levels of cortisol the more risk-taking behavior is shown by men, whereas women generally display more risk-aversive or task-focused behavior following higher levels of cortisol. Here, we assessed whether such relationships hold outside the laboratory, correlating levels of cortisol obtained during a job-related assessment procedure with decision-making parameters in the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) in male and female police recruits. The CGT allows for discriminating different aspects of reward-based decision-making. In addition, we correlated levels of alpha-amylase [indicative of activation of the sympatho-adrenomedullary-axis (SAM)] and decision-making parameters. In line with earlier studies men and women only differed in risk-adjustment in the CGT. Salivary cortisol levels correlated positively and strongly with risk-taking measures in men, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation in women. In contrast, and less strongly so, salivary alpha-amylase levels correlated positively with risk-taking in women, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation with risk-taking in men. Collectively, these data support and extend data of earlier studies indicating that risky decision-making in men and women is differently affected by stress hormones. The data are briefly discussed in relation to the effects of stress on gambling. PMID:24474909

Health shocks and risk aversion.

PubMed

Decker, Simon; Schmitz, Hendrik

2016-12-01

We empirically assess whether a health shock influences individual risk aversion. We use grip strength data to obtain an objective health shock indicator. In order to account for the non-random nature of our data regression-adjusted matching is employed. Risk preferences are traditionally assumed to be constant. However, we find that a health shock increases individual risk aversion. The finding is robust to a series of sensitivity analyses and persists for at least four years after the shock. Income changes do not seem to be the driving mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Personality traits in subclinical and non-obsessive-compulsive volunteers and their parents.

PubMed

Frost, R O; Steketee, G; Cohn, L; Griess, K

1994-01-01

Theorists from a variety of perspectives have asserted that obsessive compulsives are more risk-aversive, perfectionistic and guilt-ridden than non-obsessive compulsives, and that these characteristics are central features of the disorder. Furthermore, several have hypothesized that the parents of obsessive compulsives are characterized by risk-aversion, perfectionism, and high levels of criticism. Little research exists which corroborates these hypotheses, however. The present investigation examined these hypotheses among subclinical obsessive compulsives. In two different samples, subclinical obsessive compulsives were found to be more risk-aversive, perfectionistic, and guilt-ridden. Subclinical obsessive compulsives also perceived their parents to be more overprotective. The findings regarding other parental traits were less clear. There was some support for the hypothesis that the parents of subclinical obsessive compulsives are more risk-aversive, and that fathers are more critical and perfectionistic.

Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents.

PubMed

Offerman, Theo; Palley, Asa B

2016-01-01

Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of [Formula: see text], and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report [Formula: see text]. Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.

Anxiety, attention, and decision making: The moderating role of heart rate variability.

PubMed

Ramírez, Encarnación; Ortega, Ana Raquel; Reyes Del Paso, Gustavo A

2015-12-01

The current exploratory research examined whether high frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV) modulates the association between anxiety and (1) executive attentional control during situations involving neutral stimuli, in which the distractor stimuli are in conflict with the target stimulus, and (2) risk aversion in decision making. Forty-five participants (21 with low and 24 with high trait-anxiety) performed a modified version of the Attention Network Test to measure attentional control, and the Balloon Analog Risk Task to measure risk aversion. HF-HRV was recorded during a rest period before completion of the tasks. Results showed that individuals with high anxiety and low HF-HRV have worse attentional control in the face of conflicting information as well as greater risk aversion, in comparison with individuals with both high anxiety and high HF-HRV or low anxiety (regardless of HF-HRV). HF-HRV was positively associated with attentional control and negatively associated with risk aversion. Furthermore, a strong negative association was observed between attentional control and risk aversion. These results suggest that HF-HRV modulates the influence of anxiety on both attentional control to neutral stimuli, and risk aversion in decision making. Greater HF-HRV appears to fulfill a protective role in highly anxious individuals. The associations observed also suggest that executive control of attention plays a relevant role in decision making. These results support the relevance of the autonomic nervous system in sustained cognition and are in accordance with theories in which vagal-mediated heart rate variability is taken as an indicator of prefrontal cortex inhibitory influences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

PubMed

Thompson, Grant G; Maguire, Lynn A; Regan, Tracey J

2018-05-01

The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Stackelberg Game of Buyback Policy in Supply Chain with a Risk-Averse Retailer and a Risk-Averse Supplier Based on CVaR

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

2014-01-01

This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions. PMID:25247605

Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

2014-01-01

This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

The effect of accountability on loss aversion.

PubMed

Vieider, Ferdinand M

2009-09-01

This paper investigates the effect of accountability-the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else-on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.

Possibility of dying as a unified explanation of why we discount the future, get weaker with age, and display risk-aversion.

PubMed

Chowdhry, Bhagwan

2011-01-01

I formulate a simple and parsimonious evolutionary model that shows that because most species face a possibility of dying because of external factors, called extrinsic mortality in the biology literature, it can simultaneously explain (a) why we discount the future, (b) get weaker with age, and (c) display risk-aversion. The paper suggests that testable restrictions—across species, across time, or across genders—among time preference, aging, and risk-aversion could be analyzed in a simple framework .

Attitude to health risk in the Canadian population: a cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Bansback, Nick; Harrison, Mark; Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Stiggelbout, Anne; Whitehurst, David G.T.

2016-01-01

Background: Risk is a ubiquitous part of health care. Understanding how people respond to risks is important for predicting how populations make health decisions. Our objective was to seek preliminary descriptive insights into the attitude to health risk in the Canadian population and factors associated with heterogeneity in risk attitude. Methods: We used a large market-research panel to survey (in English and French) a representative sample of the Canadian general population that reflected the age, sex and geography of the population. The survey included the Health-Risk Attitude Scale, which predicts how a person resolves risky health decisions related to treatment, prevention of disease and health-related behaviour. In addition, we assessed participants' numeracy and risk understanding, as well as income band and level of education. We summarized the responses, and we explored the independent associations between demographics, numeracy, risk understanding and risk attitude in multivariable models. Results: Of 6780 respondents, 4949 (73.0%) were averse to health risks; however, but there was considerable heterogeneity in the magnitude of risk aversion. We found significant gradients of risk averse attitudes with increasing age and being female (p < 0.001) using the multivariable model. French-speaking participants appeared to be more risk averse than those who were English-speaking (p < 0.001), as were individuals scoring higher on the Subjective Numeracy Scale (p < 0.001). Interpreation: In general, Canadians were averse to health risks, but we found that a sizeable, identifiable group of risk takers exists. Heterogeneity in preferences for risk can explain variations in health care utilization in the context of patient-centred care. Understanding risk preference heterogeneity can help guide policy and assist in patient-physician decisions. PMID:27398375

Cognitive Decline Is Associated with Risk Aversion and Temporal Discounting in Older Adults without Dementia

PubMed Central

James, Bryan D.; Boyle, Patricia A.; Yu, Lei; Han, S. Duke; Bennett, David A.

2015-01-01

Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that subtle age-related changes in cognition can detrimentally affect individual preferences that are critical for maintaining health and well being. PMID:25838074

Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

PubMed

James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Han, S Duke; Bennett, David A

2015-01-01

Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that subtle age-related changes in cognition can detrimentally affect individual preferences that are critical for maintaining health and well being.

Monetary losses do not loom large in later life: age differences in the framing effect.

PubMed

Mikels, Joseph A; Reed, Andrew E

2009-06-01

Studies of the framing effect indicate that individuals are risk averse for decisions framed as gains but risk seeking for decisions framed as losses. However, findings regarding age-related changes in susceptibility to framing are mixed. Recent work demonstrating age-related decreases in reactivity to anticipated monetary losses, but not gains, suggests that older and younger adults might show equivalent risk aversion for gains but discrepant risk seeking for losses. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a monetary gambling task in which they chose between sure options and risky gambles (the expected outcomes of which were equated). Although both groups demonstrated risk aversion in the gain frame, only younger adults showed risk seeking in the loss frame.

Combined Effects of Glucocorticoid and Noradrenergic Activity on Loss Aversion.

PubMed

Margittai, Zsofia; Nave, Gideon; Van Wingerden, Marijn; Schnitzler, Alfons; Schwabe, Lars; Kalenscher, Tobias

2018-01-01

Loss aversion is a well-known behavioral regularity in financial decision making, describing humans' tendency to overweigh losses compared to gains of the same amount. Recent research indicates that stress and associated hormonal changes affect loss aversion, yet the underlying neuroendocrine mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated the causal influence of two major stress neuromodulators, cortisol and noradrenaline, on loss aversion during financial decision making. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled between-subject design, we orally administered either the α2-adrenergic antagonist yohimbine (increasing noradrenergic stimulation), hydrocortisone, both substances, or a placebo to healthy young men. We tested the treatments' influence on a financial decision-making task measuring loss aversion and risk attitude. We found that both drugs combined, relative to either drug by itself, reduced loss aversion in the absence of an effect on risk attitude or choice consistency. Our data suggest that concurrent glucocorticoid and noradrenergic activity prompts an alignment of reward- with loss-sensitivity, and thus diminishes loss aversion. Our results have implications for the understanding of the susceptibility to biases in decision making.

Correlations of self-esteem and intolerance of ambiguity with risk aversion.

PubMed

Johanson, J C

2000-10-01

The current paper reports for 80 undergraduates that risk aversion is greater among those with lower self-esteem scores on Rosenberg's Self-esteem Scale and those with higher scores on Budner's Intolerance of Ambiguity Scale.

Does life history predict risk-taking behavior of wintering dabbling ducks?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eadie, J.M.; Moore, T.G.

2006-01-01

Life-history theory predicts that longer-lived, less fecund species should take fewer risks when exposed to predation than shorter-lived, more fecund species. We tested this prediction for seven species of dabbling ducks (Anas) by measuring the approach behavior (behavior of ducks when approaching potential landing sites) of 1099 duck flocks during 37 hunting trials and 491 flocks during 13 trials conducted immediately after the 1999-2000 waterfowl hunting season in California, USA. We also experimentally manipulated the attractiveness of the study site by using two decoy treatments: (1) traditional, stationary decoys only, and (2) traditional decoys in conjunction with a mechanical spinning-wing decoy. Approach behavior of ducks was strongly correlated with their life history. Minimum approach distance was negatively correlated with reproductive output during each decoy treatment and trial type. Similarly, the proportion of flocks taking risk (approaching landing sites to within 45 m) was positively correlated with reproductive output. We found similar patterns of approach behavior in relation to other life-history parameters (i.e., adult female body mass and annual adult female survival rate). Thus, species characterized by a slower life-history strategy (e.g., Northern Pintail [A. acuta]) were more risk-averse than species with a faster life-history strategy (e.g., Cinnamon Teal [A. cyanoptera]). Furthermore, although we were able to reduce risk-averseness using the spinning-wing decoy, we were unable to override the influence of life history on risk-taking behavior. Alternative explanations did not account for the observed correlation between approach behavior and life-history parameters. These results suggest that life history influences the risk-taking behavior of dabbling ducks and provide an explanation for the differential vulnerability of waterfowl to harvest. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Doubt in the Insula: Risk Processing in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder

PubMed Central

Luigjes, Judy; Figee, Martijn; Tobler, Philippe N.; van den Brink, Wim; de Kwaasteniet, Bart; van Wingen, Guido; Denys, Damiaan

2016-01-01

Extensive cleaning or checking of patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) are often interpreted as strategies to avoid harm and as an expression of the widespread belief that OCD patients are more risk-averse. However, despite its clinical significance, the neural basis of risk attitude in OCD is unknown. Here, we investigated neural activity during risk processing using functional magnetic resonance imaging and simultaneously assessed risk attitude using a separate behavioral paradigm in OCD patients with different symptoms versus healthy controls (HCs). We found opposite insula responses to high versus low risk in OCD patients compared to HCs: a positive correlation between insula activity and risk-aversion in patients versus a negative correlation in controls. Although OCD patients overall were not more risk-averse than controls, there were differences between subgroups of OCD patients: patients with doubt/checking symptoms were more risk-averse than other patients. Taken together, OCD patients show a reversed pattern of risk processing by the insula compared to HCs. Moreover, the data suggest that increased activation of the insula signals an abnormal urge to avoid risks in the subpopulation of OCD patients with doubt and checking symptoms. These results indicate a role for the insula in excessive risk-avoidance relevant to OCD. PMID:27378883

Negative learning bias is associated with risk aversion in a genetic animal model of depression.

PubMed

Shabel, Steven J; Murphy, Ryan T; Malinow, Roberto

2014-01-01

The lateral habenula (LHb) is activated by aversive stimuli and the omission of reward, inhibited by rewarding stimuli and is hyperactive in helpless rats-an animal model of depression. Here we test the hypothesis that congenital learned helpless (cLH) rats are more sensitive to decreases in reward size and/or less sensitive to increases in reward than wild-type (WT) control rats. Consistent with the hypothesis, we found that cLH rats were slower to switch preference between two responses after a small upshift in reward size on one of the responses but faster to switch their preference after a small downshift in reward size. cLH rats were also more risk-averse than WT rats-they chose a response delivering a constant amount of reward ("safe" response) more often than a response delivering a variable amount of reward ("risky" response) compared to WT rats. Interestingly, the level of bias toward negative events was associated with the rat's level of risk aversion when compared across individual rats. cLH rats also showed impaired appetitive Pavlovian conditioning but more accurate responding in a two-choice sensory discrimination task. These results are consistent with a negative learning bias and risk aversion in cLH rats, suggesting abnormal processing of rewarding and aversive events in the LHb of cLH rats.

Risk Aversion and the Value of Information.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eeckhoudt, Louis; Godfroid, Phillippe

2000-01-01

Explains why risk aversion does not always induce a greater information value, but instead may induce a lower information value when increased. Presents a basic model defining the concept of perfect information value and providing a numerical illustration. Includes references. (CMK)

Towards reliable mapping of biosecurity risk: incorporating uncertainty and decision-makers’ risk aversion

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark Ducey; Robert A. Haack

2015-01-01

Pest risk maps are an important source of decision support when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e. risk-averse) course of action. We present a new mapping...

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark J. Ducey; Robert A. Haack; Marty Siltanen; Kirsty Wilson

2013-01-01

Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique...

Investigating Gender Differences under Time Pressure in Financial Risk Taking.

PubMed

Xie, Zhixin; Page, Lionel; Hardy, Ben

2017-01-01

There is a significant gender imbalance on financial trading floors. This motivated us to investigate gender differences in financial risk taking under pressure. We used a well-established approach from behavior economics to analyze a series of risky monetary choices by male and female participants with and without time pressure. We also used second to fourth digit ratio (2D:4D) and face width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as correlates of pre-natal exposure to testosterone. We constructed a structural model and estimated the participants' risk attitudes and probability perceptions via maximum likelihood estimation under both expected utility (EU) and rank-dependent utility (RDU) models. In line with existing research, we found that male participants are less risk averse and that the gender gap in risk attitudes increases under moderate time pressure. We found that female participants with lower 2D:4D ratios and higher fWHR are less risk averse in RDU estimates. Males with lower 2D:4D ratios were less risk averse in EU estimations, but more risk averse using RDU estimates. We also observe that men whose ratios indicate a greater prenatal exposure to testosterone exhibit a greater optimism and overestimation of small probabilities of success.

Monetary Losses Do Not Loom Large in Later Life: Age Differences in the Framing Effect

PubMed Central

Reed, Andrew E.

2009-01-01

Studies of the framing effect indicate that individuals are risk averse for decisions framed as gains but risk seeking for decisions framed as losses. However, findings regarding age-related changes in susceptibility to framing are mixed. Recent work demonstrating age-related decreases in reactivity to anticipated monetary losses, but not gains, suggests that older and younger adults might show equivalent risk aversion for gains but discrepant risk seeking for losses. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a monetary gambling task in which they chose between sure options and risky gambles (the expected outcomes of which were equated). Although both groups demonstrated risk aversion in the gain frame, only younger adults showed risk seeking in the loss frame. PMID:19497929

Treatment decisions under ambiguity.

PubMed

Berger, Loïc; Bleichrodt, Han; Eeckhoudt, Louis

2013-05-01

Many health risks are ambiguous in the sense that reliable and credible information about these risks is unavailable. In health economics, ambiguity is usually handled through sensitivity analysis, which implicitly assumes that people are neutral towards ambiguity. However, empirical evidence suggests that people are averse to ambiguity and react strongly to it. This paper studies the effects of ambiguity aversion on two classical medical decision problems. If there is ambiguity regarding the diagnosis of a patient, ambiguity aversion increases the decision maker's propensity to opt for treatment. On the other hand, in the case of ambiguity regarding the effects of treatment, ambiguity aversion leads to a reduction in the propensity to choose treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eliciting and Measuring Betrayal Aversion using the BDM Mechanism.

PubMed

Quercia, Simone

2016-05-01

Betrayal aversion has been operationalized as the evidence that subjects demand a higher risk premium to take social risks compared to natural risks. This evidence has been first shown by Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004) using an adaptation of the Becker - DeGroot - Marschak mechanism (BDM, Becker et al. (1964)). We compare their implementation of the BDM mechanism with a new version designed to facilitate subjects' comprehension. We find that, although the two versions produce different distributions of values, the size of betrayal aversion, measured as an average treatment difference between social and natural risk settings, is not different across the two versions. We further show that our implementation is preferable to use in practice as it reduces substantially subjects' mistakes and the likelihood of noisy valuations.

Investigating Gender Differences under Time Pressure in Financial Risk Taking

PubMed Central

Xie, Zhixin; Page, Lionel; Hardy, Ben

2017-01-01

There is a significant gender imbalance on financial trading floors. This motivated us to investigate gender differences in financial risk taking under pressure. We used a well-established approach from behavior economics to analyze a series of risky monetary choices by male and female participants with and without time pressure. We also used second to fourth digit ratio (2D:4D) and face width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as correlates of pre-natal exposure to testosterone. We constructed a structural model and estimated the participants' risk attitudes and probability perceptions via maximum likelihood estimation under both expected utility (EU) and rank-dependent utility (RDU) models. In line with existing research, we found that male participants are less risk averse and that the gender gap in risk attitudes increases under moderate time pressure. We found that female participants with lower 2D:4D ratios and higher fWHR are less risk averse in RDU estimates. Males with lower 2D:4D ratios were less risk averse in EU estimations, but more risk averse using RDU estimates. We also observe that men whose ratios indicate a greater prenatal exposure to testosterone exhibit a greater optimism and overestimation of small probabilities of success. PMID:29326566

Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

PubMed

Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

2014-07-01

To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Size doesn't really matter: ambiguity aversion in Ellsberg urns with few balls.

PubMed

Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

2008-01-01

When attempting to draw a ball of a specified color either from an urn containing 50 red balls and 50 black balls or from an urn containing an unknown ratio of 100 red and black balls, a majority of decision makers prefer the known-risk urn, and this ambiguity aversion effect violates expected utility theory. In an experimental investigation of the effect of urn size on ambiguity aversion, 149 participants showed similar levels of aversion when choosing from urns containing 2, 10, or 100 balls. The occurrence of a substantial and significant ambiguity aversion effect even in the smallest urn suggests that influential theoretical interpretations of ambiguity aversion may need to be reconsidered.

Reducing Aversion to Side Effects in Preventive Medical Treatment Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waters, Erika A.; Weinstein, Neil D.; Colditz, Graham A.; Emmons, Karen M.

2007-01-01

Laypeople tend to be overly sensitive to side effects of treatments that prevent illness, possibly leading them to refuse beneficial therapies. This Internet-based study attempted to reduce such side effect aversion by adding graphic displays to the numerical risk probabilities. It also explored whether graphics reduce side effect aversion by…

Effects of and attention to graphic warning labels on cigarette packages.

PubMed

Süssenbach, Philipp; Niemeier, Sarah; Glock, Sabine

2013-01-01

The present study investigates the effects of graphic cigarette warnings compared to text-only cigarette warnings on smokers' explicit (i.e. ratings of the packages, cognitions about smoking, perceived health risk, quit intentions) and implicit attitudes. In addition, participants' visual attention towards the graphic warnings was recorded using eye-tracking methodology. Sixty-three smokers participated in the present study and either viewed graphic cigarette warnings with aversive and non-aversive images or text-only warnings. Data were analysed using analysis of variance and correlation analysis. Especially, graphic cigarette warnings with aversive content drew attention and elicited high threat. However, whereas attention directed to the textual information of the graphic warnings predicted smokers' risk perceptions, attention directed to the images of the graphic warnings did not. Moreover, smokers' in the graphic warning condition reported more positive cognitions about smoking, thus revealing cognitive dissonance. Smokers employ defensive psychological mechanisms when confronted with threatening warnings. Although aversive images attract attention, they do not promote health knowledge. Implications for graphic health warnings and the importance of taking their content (i.e. aversive vs. non-aversive images) into account are discussed.

Stereotype threat affects financial decision making.

PubMed

Carr, Priyanka B; Steele, Claude M

2010-10-01

The research presented in this article provides the first evidence that one's decision making can be influenced by concerns about stereotypes and the devaluation of one's identity. Many studies document gender differences in decision making, and often attribute these differences to innate and stable factors, such as biological and hormonal differences. In three studies, we found that stereotype threat affected decision making and led to gender differences in loss-aversion and risk-aversion behaviors. In Study 1, women subjected to stereotype threat in academic and business settings were more loss averse than both men and women who were not facing the threat of being viewed in light of negative stereotypes. We found no gender differences in loss-aversion behavior in the absence of stereotype threat. In Studies 2a and 2b, we found the same pattern of effects for risk-aversion behavior that we had observed for loss-aversion behavior. In addition, in Study 2b, ego depletion mediated the effects of stereotype threat on women's decision making. These results suggest that individuals' decision making can be influenced by stereotype concerns.

Games with Non-Probabilistic Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-13

For an example, consider a double tennis match game in which two players see each other and need to decide who returns a ball. Due to different...about some parameters that a ect the rewards of the players . The goal is to understand whether players should be optimistic or pessimistic in such... players are strategic in choosing their attitude (degree of optimism), instead of having an intrinsic risk aversion. The idea is that Alice may be able to

Loss Aversion Reflects Information Accumulation, Not Bias: A Drift-Diffusion Model Study.

PubMed

Clay, Summer N; Clithero, John A; Harris, Alison M; Reed, Catherine L

2017-01-01

Defined as increased sensitivity to losses, loss aversion is often conceptualized as a cognitive bias. However, findings that loss aversion has an attentional or emotional regulation component suggest that it may instead reflect differences in information processing. To distinguish these alternatives, we applied the drift-diffusion model (DDM) to choice and response time (RT) data in a card gambling task with unknown risk distributions. Loss aversion was measured separately for each participant. Dividing the participants into terciles based on loss aversion estimates, we found that the most loss-averse group showed a significantly lower drift rate than the other two groups, indicating overall slower uptake of information. In contrast, neither the starting bias nor the threshold separation (barrier) varied by group, suggesting that decision thresholds are not affected by loss aversion. These results shed new light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying loss aversion, consistent with an account based on information accumulation.

Loss Aversion Reflects Information Accumulation, Not Bias: A Drift-Diffusion Model Study

PubMed Central

Clay, Summer N.; Clithero, John A.; Harris, Alison M.; Reed, Catherine L.

2017-01-01

Defined as increased sensitivity to losses, loss aversion is often conceptualized as a cognitive bias. However, findings that loss aversion has an attentional or emotional regulation component suggest that it may instead reflect differences in information processing. To distinguish these alternatives, we applied the drift-diffusion model (DDM) to choice and response time (RT) data in a card gambling task with unknown risk distributions. Loss aversion was measured separately for each participant. Dividing the participants into terciles based on loss aversion estimates, we found that the most loss-averse group showed a significantly lower drift rate than the other two groups, indicating overall slower uptake of information. In contrast, neither the starting bias nor the threshold separation (barrier) varied by group, suggesting that decision thresholds are not affected by loss aversion. These results shed new light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying loss aversion, consistent with an account based on information accumulation. PMID:29066987

Age-dependent MDPV-induced taste aversions and thermoregulation in adolescent and adult rats.

PubMed

Merluzzi, Andrew P; Hurwitz, Zachary E; Briscione, Maria A; Cobuzzi, Jennifer L; Wetzell, Bradley; Rice, Kenner C; Riley, Anthony L

2014-07-01

Adolescent rats are more sensitive to the rewarding and less sensitive to the aversive properties of various drugs of abuse than their adult counterparts. Given a nationwide increase in use of "bath salts," the present experiment employed the conditioned taste aversion procedure to assess the aversive effects of 3,4-methylenedioxypyrovalerone (MDPV; 0, 1.0, 1.8, or 3.2 mg/kg), a common constituent in "bath salts," in adult and adolescent rats. As similar drugs induce thermoregulatory changes in rats, temperature was recorded following MDPV administration to assess if thermoregulatory changes were related to taste aversion conditioning. Both age groups acquired taste aversions, although these aversions were weaker and developed at a slower rate in the adolescent subjects. Adolescents increased and adults decreased body temperature following MDPV administration with no correlation to aversions. The relative insensitivity of adolescents to the aversive effects of MDPV suggests that MDPV may confer an increased risk in this population. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk aversion affects economic values of blue fox breeding scheme.

PubMed

Peura, J; Kempe, R; Strandén, I; Rydhmer, L

2016-12-01

The profit and production of an average Finnish blue fox farm was simulated using a deterministic bio-economic farm model. Risk was included using Arrow-Prat absolute risk aversion coefficient and profit variance. Risk-rated economic values were calculated for pregnancy rate, litter loss, litter size, pelt size, pelt quality, pelt colour clarity, feed efficiency and eye infection. With high absolute risk aversion, economic values were lower than with low absolute risk aversion. Economic values were highest for litter loss (18.16 and 26.42 EUR), litter size (13.27 and 19.40 EUR), pregnancy (11.99 and 18.39 EUR) and eye infection (12.39 and 13.81 EUR). Sensitivity analysis showed that selection pressure for improved eye health depended strongly on proportion of culled animals among infected animals and much less on the proportion of infected animals. The economic value of feed efficiency was lower than expected (6.06 and 8.03 EUR). However, it was almost the same magnitude as pelt quality (7.30 and 7.30 EUR) and higher than the economic value of pelt size (3.37 and 5.26 EUR). Risk factors should be considered in blue fox breeding scheme because they change the relative importance of traits. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Female babies and risk-aversion: Causal evidence from hospital wards.

PubMed

Pogrebna, Ganna; Oswald, Andrew J; Haig, David

2018-03-01

Using ultrasound scan data from paediatric hospitals, and the exogenous 'shock' of learning the gender of an unborn baby, the paper documents the first causal evidence that offspring gender affects adult risk-aversion. On a standard Holt-Laury criterion, parents of daughters, whether unborn or recently born, become almost twice as risk-averse as parents of sons. The study demonstrates this in longitudinal and cross-sectional data, for fathers and mothers, for babies in the womb and new-born children, and in a West European nation and East European nation. These findings may eventually aid our understanding of risky health behaviors and gender inequalities. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

76 FR 70362 - Fisheries Off West Coast States; Coastal Pelagic Species Fisheries; Amendment 13 to the Coastal...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-14

... based on its preferred level of risk aversion. The ABC is based on a percentage reduction of the OFL as determined by an SSC determination on scientific uncertainty and a risk policy determined by the Council. In... Council then selects a level of risk aversion by choosing an appropriate P* value. Each P* value is then...

Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

PubMed

Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

2017-02-01

Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Eliciting and Measuring Betrayal Aversion using the BDM Mechanism*

PubMed Central

Quercia, Simone

2016-01-01

Betrayal aversion has been operationalized as the evidence that subjects demand a higher risk premium to take social risks compared to natural risks. This evidence has been first shown by Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004) using an adaptation of the Becker – DeGroot – Marschak mechanism (BDM, Becker et al. (1964)). We compare their implementation of the BDM mechanism with a new version designed to facilitate subjects’ comprehension. We find that, although the two versions produce different distributions of values, the size of betrayal aversion, measured as an average treatment difference between social and natural risk settings, is not different across the two versions. We further show that our implementation is preferable to use in practice as it reduces substantially subjects’ mistakes and the likelihood of noisy valuations. PMID:27366658

Risk-taking behavior in the presence of nonconvex asset dynamics.

PubMed

Lybbert, Travis J; Barrett, Christopher B

2011-01-01

The growing literature on poverty traps emphasizes the links between multiple equilibria and risk avoidance. However, multiple equilibria may also foster risk-taking behavior by some poor people. We illustrate this idea with a simple analytical model in which people with different wealth and ability endowments make investment and risky activity choices in the presence of known nonconvex asset dynamics. This model underscores a crucial distinction between familiar static concepts of risk aversion and forward-looking dynamic risk responses to nonconvex asset dynamics. Even when unobservable preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion, observed behavior may suggest that risk aversion actually increases with wealth near perceived dynamic asset thresholds. Although high ability individuals are not immune from poverty traps, they can leverage their capital endowments more effectively than lower ability types and are therefore less likely to take seemingly excessive risks. In general, linkages between behavioral responses and wealth dynamics often seem to run in both directions. Both theoretical and empirical poverty trap research could benefit from making this two-way linkage more explicit.

Amygdala damage eliminates monetary loss aversion

PubMed Central

De Martino, Benedetto; Camerer, Colin F.; Adolphs, Ralph

2010-01-01

Losses are a possibility in many risky decisions, and organisms have evolved mechanisms to evaluate and avoid them. Laboratory and field evidence suggests that people often avoid risks with losses even when they might earn a substantially larger gain, a behavioral preference termed “loss aversion.” The cautionary brake on behavior known to rely on the amygdala is a plausible candidate mechanism for loss aversion, yet evidence for this idea has so far not been found. We studied two rare individuals with focal bilateral amygdala lesions using a series of experimental economics tasks. To measure individual sensitivity to financial losses we asked participants to play a variety of monetary gambles with possible gains and losses. Although both participants retained a normal ability to respond to changes in the gambles’ expected value and risk, they showed a dramatic reduction in loss aversion compared to matched controls. The findings suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in generating loss aversion by inhibiting actions with potentially deleterious outcomes. PMID:20142490

Peer Passenger Norms and Pressure: Experimental Effects on Simulated Driving Among Teenage Males.

PubMed

Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Pradhan, Anuj K; Li, Kaigang; Almani, Farideh; Falk, Emily B; Shope, Jean T; Buckley, Lisa; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Albert, Paul S

2016-08-01

Serious crashes are more likely when teenage drivers have teenage passengers. One likely source of this increased risk is social influences on driving performance. This driving simulator study experimentally tested the effects of peer influence (i.e., risk-accepting compared to risk-averse peer norms reinforced by pressure) on the driving risk behavior (i.e., risky driving behavior and inattention to hazards) of male teenagers. It was hypothesized that peer presence would result in greater driving risk behavior (i.e., increased driving risk and reduced latent hazard anticipation), and that the effect would be greater when the peer was risk-accepting. Fifty-three 16- and 17-year-old male participants holding a provisional U.S., State of Michigan driver license were randomized to either a risk-accepting or risk-averse condition. Each participant operated a driving simulator while alone and separately with a confederate peer passenger. The simulator world included scenarios designed to elicit variation in driving risk behavior with a teen passenger present in the vehicle. Significant interactions of passenger presence (passenger present vs. alone) by risk condition (risk-accepting vs. risk-averse) were observed for variables measuring: failure to stop at yellow light intersections (Incident Rate Ratio (IRR)=2.16; 95% Confidence Interval [95CI]=1.06, 4.43); higher probability of overtaking (IRR=10.17; 95CI=1.43, 73.35); shorter left turn latency (IRR=0.43; 95CI=0.31,0.60); and, failure to stop at an intersection with an occluded stop sign (IRR=7.90; 95CI=2.06,30.35). In all cases, greater risky driving by participants was more likely with a risk-accepting passenger versus a risk-averse passenger present and a risk-accepting passenger present versus driving alone. Exposure of male teenagers to a risk-accepting confederate peer passenger who applied peer influence increased simulated risky driving behavior compared with exposure to a risk-averse confederate peer passenger or driving alone. These results are consistent with the contention that variability in teenage risky driving is in part explained by social influences.

Peer Passenger Norms and Pressure: Experimental Effects on Simulated Driving Among Teenage Males

PubMed Central

Bingham, C. Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Pradhan, Anuj K.; Li, Kaigang; Almani, Farideh; Falk, Emily B.; Shope, Jean T.; Buckley, Lisa; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Albert, Paul S.

2016-01-01

Objective Serious crashes are more likely when teenage drivers have teenage passengers. One likely source of this increased risk is social influences on driving performance. This driving simulator study experimentally tested the effects of peer influence (i.e., risk-accepting compared to risk-averse peer norms reinforced by pressure) on the driving risk behavior (i.e., risky driving behavior and inattention to hazards) of male teenagers. It was hypothesized that peer presence would result in greater driving risk behavior (i.e., increased driving risk and reduced latent hazard anticipation), and that the effect would be greater when the peer was risk-accepting. Methods Fifty-three 16- and 17-year-old male participants holding a provisional U.S., State of Michigan driver license were randomized to either a risk-accepting or risk-averse condition. Each participant operated a driving simulator while alone and separately with a confederate peer passenger. The simulator world included scenarios designed to elicit variation in driving risk behavior with a teen passenger present in the vehicle. Results Significant interactions of passenger presence (passenger present vs. alone) by risk condition (risk-accepting vs. risk-averse) were observed for variables measuring: failure to stop at yellow light intersections (Incident Rate Ratio (IRR)=2.16; 95% Confidence Interval [95CI]=1.06, 4.43); higher probability of overtaking (IRR=10.17; 95CI=1.43, 73.35); shorter left turn latency (IRR=0.43; 95CI=0.31,0.60); and, failure to stop at an intersection with an occluded stop sign (IRR=7.90; 95CI=2.06,30.35). In all cases, greater risky driving by participants was more likely with a risk-accepting passenger versus a risk-averse passenger present and a risk-accepting passenger present versus driving alone. Conclusions Exposure of male teenagers to a risk-accepting confederate peer passenger who applied peer influence increased simulated risky driving behavior compared with exposure to a risk-averse confederate peer passenger or driving alone. These results are consistent with the contention that variability in teenage risky driving is in part explained by social influences. PMID:27818610

Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion

PubMed Central

Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment. PMID:28979234

Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion.

PubMed

Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians.

PubMed

Raptis, Stavroula; Chen, Jia Ning; Saposnik, Florencia; Pelyavskyy, Roman; Liuni, Andrew; Saposnik, Gustavo

2017-01-01

Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF. To evaluate the association between family physicians' risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity) and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation) in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics. Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks). The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention. Overall, 23.3% (17/73) of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate analysis showed that aversion to ambiguity was associated with appropriate change to anticoagulation therapy in the management of AF (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.08-27.85). Physicians' willingness to take individual risk in multiple domains was associated with lower errors (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.03-0.86). Physicians' aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks are associated with appropriate therapeutic decisions in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention. Further large scale studies are needed.

Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians

PubMed Central

Saposnik, Florencia; Pelyavskyy, Roman; Liuni, Andrew; Saposnik, Gustavo

2017-01-01

Background Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF. Objectives To evaluate the association between family physicians’ risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity) and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation) in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics. Methods Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks). The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention. Results Overall, 23.3% (17/73) of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate analysis showed that aversion to ambiguity was associated with appropriate change to anticoagulation therapy in the management of AF (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.08–27.85). Physicians’ willingness to take individual risk in multiple domains was associated with lower errors (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.03–0.86). Conclusion Physicians’ aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks are associated with appropriate therapeutic decisions in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention. Further large scale studies are needed. PMID:28979101

A CHRNA5 Smoking Risk Variant Decreases the Aversive Effects of Nicotine in Humans.

PubMed

Jensen, Kevin P; DeVito, Elise E; Herman, Aryeh I; Valentine, Gerald W; Gelernter, Joel; Sofuoglu, Mehmet

2015-11-01

Genome-wide association studies have implicated the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene cluster in risk for heavy smoking and several smoking-related disorders. The heavy smoking risk allele might reduce the aversive effects of nicotine, but this hypothesis has not been tested in humans. We evaluated the effects of a candidate causal variant in CHRNA5, rs16969968, on the acute response to nicotine in European American (EA) and African American (AA) smokers (n=192; 50% AA; 73% male). Following overnight abstinence from nicotine, participants completed a protocol that included an intravenous (IV) dose of saline and two escalating IV doses of nicotine. The outcomes evaluated were the aversive, pleasurable, and stimulatory ratings of nicotine's effects, cardiovascular reactivity to nicotine, withdrawal severity, and cognitive performance before and after the nicotine administration session. The heavy smoking risk allele (rs16969968*A; frequency=28% (EA) and 6% (AA)) was associated with lower ratings of aversive effects (P<5 × 10(-8)) with marked specificity. This effect was evident in EA and AA subjects analyzed as separate groups and was most robust at the highest nicotine dose. Rs16969968*A was also associated with greater improvement on a measure of cognitive control (Stroop Task) following nicotine administration. These findings support differential aversive response to nicotine as one likely mechanism for the association of CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 with heavy smoking.

Neural processing of reward and punishment in young people at increased familial risk of depression.

PubMed

McCabe, Ciara; Woffindale, Caroline; Harmer, Catherine J; Cowen, Philip J

2012-10-01

Abnormalities in the neural representation of rewarding and aversive stimuli have been well-described in patients with acute depression, and we previously found abnormal neural responses to rewarding and aversive sight and taste stimuli in recovered depressed patients. The aim of the present study was to determine whether similar abnormalities might be present in young people at increased familial risk of depression but with no personal history of mood disorder. We therefore used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine the neural responses to pleasant and aversive sights and tastes in 25 young people (16-21 years of age) with a biological parent with depression and 25 age- and gender-matched control subjects. We found that, relative to the control subjects, participants with a parental history of depression showed diminished responses in the orbitofrontal cortex to rewarding stimuli, whereas activations to aversive stimuli were increased in the lateral orbitofrontal cortex and insula. In anterior cingulate cortex the at-risk group showed blunted neural responses to both rewarding and aversive stimuli. Our findings suggest that young people at increased familial risk of depression have altered neural representation of reward and punishment, particularly in cortical regions linked to the use of positive and negative feedback to guide adaptive behavior. Copyright © 2012 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular neuroeconomics of crime and punishment: implications for neurolaw.

PubMed

Takahashi, Taiki

2012-01-01

Criminal behaviors have been associated with risk, time and social preferences in economics (Becker 1968; Davis 1988), criminology (Chamlin & Cochran 1997), and neurolaw (Goodenough & Tucker 2010). This study proposes a molecular neuroeconomic framework for the investigation into crime and punishment. Neuroeconomic parameters (e.g., risk-attitude, probability weighting, time discounting in intertemporal choice, loss aversion, and social discounting) are predicted to be related to criminal behavior. Neurobiological and neuroendocrinological substrates such as serotonin, dopamine, norepinephrine, cortisol (a stress hormone), sex hormones (e.g., testosterone), and oxytocin in brain regions such as the orbitofrontal cortex, the amygdala, and the cingulate may be related to the neuroeconomic parameters governing criminal behaviors. The present framework may help us develop "neurolaw" based on molecular neuroeconomics of criminal and antisocial decision-making processes.

Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aliagha, U. G.; Jin, T. E.; Choong, W. W.; Nadzri Jaafar, M.; Ali, H. M.

2014-12-01

High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Factors affecting flood insurance penetration in residential properties in Johor Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godwin Aliagha, U.; Ewe Jin, T.; Weng Choong, W.; Nadzri Jaafar, M.

2014-04-01

High impact flood has virtually become an annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to indentify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance penetration and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and the group that did not. Our result revealed 34% penetration rate with Kota Tinggi district having the highest penetration (44%) and thus, the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' Lambda F test for equality of group means, SCDFC, structure correlation and canonical correlation have clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners based on measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, measures of subjective risk perception were found more predictive of flood insurance penetration and flood risk aversion.

Behavioral economics survey of patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Emoto, Naoya; Okajima, Fumitaka; Sugihara, Hitoshi; Goto, Rei

2015-01-01

Adherence to treatment and the metabolic control of diabetes are challenging in many patients with diabetes. The theory of neuroeconomics can provide important clues for understanding unreasonable human behavior concerning decisions between outcomes occurring at different time points. We investigated patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes to determine whether patients who are at a risk of developing complications are less risk averse. We also examined whether patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes have different behavioral traits in decision making under risk. We conducted a behavioral economics survey of 219 outpatients, 66 with type 1 diabetes and 153 with type 2 diabetes. All patients had been referred by general practitioners or other departments in the hospital. At the time of the survey, levels of hemoglobin A1c were not significantly different between patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Patients with type 2 diabetes showed a lower response rate to the survey compared with patients with type 1 diabetes (71.9% vs 87.9%, P<0.01). Logistic regression analysis indicated that diabetic retinopathy was negatively associated with risk averse in pricing of hypothetical lotteries, myopic time preference, willingness to pay for preventive medicine, and levels of satisfaction with life. Diabetic nephropathy was also negatively associated with risk averse in pricing of hypothetical lotteries. Detailed analysis revealed that a lower proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes (22.7%) were categorized as risk averse compared with patients with type 1 diabetes (43.1%, P<0.05) in hypothetical lottery risk estimation. This is the first report that investigated patients with diabetes in a clinical setting using a method based on behavioral economics. The results suggest that the attitude of patients toward risk plays an important role in the progress of the complications of diabetes. Different educational and psychological approaches may be necessary to assess patients with diabetes based on whether they have traits such as risk seeking or risk averse.

Assessing the Impact of the Funding Environment on Researchers' Risk Aversion: The Use of Citation Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zoller, Frank A.; Zimmerling, Eric; Boutellier, Roman

2014-01-01

The funding environment has a profound impact on researchers' behavior. In particular, it influences their freedom and readiness to conduct research ventures with highly uncertain outcomes. In this conceptual paper, we propose a concise new methodology to evaluate researchers' risk aversion based on citation statistics. The derived…

Absolute Risk Aversion and the Returns to Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brunello, Giorgio

2002-01-01

Uses 1995 Italian household income and wealth survey to measure individual absolute risk aversion of 1,583 married Italian male household heads. Uses this measure as an instrument for attained education in a standard-log earnings equation. Finds that the IV estimate of the marginal return to schooling is much higher than the ordinary least squares…

Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion.

PubMed

Schulreich, Stefan; Gerhardt, Holger; Heekeren, Hauke R

2016-04-01

In many everyday decisions, people exhibit loss aversion-a greater sensitivity to losses relative to gains of equal size. Loss aversion is thought to be (at least partly) mediated by emotional--in particular, fear-related--processes. Decision research has shown that even incidental emotions, which are unrelated to the decision at hand, can influence decision making. The effect of incidental fear on loss aversion, however, is thus far unclear. In two studies, we experimentally investigated how incidental fear cues, presented during (Study 1) or before (Study 2) choices to accept or reject mixed gambles over real monetary stakes, influence monetary loss aversion. We find that the presentation of fearful faces, relative to the presentation of neutral faces, increased risk aversion-an effect that could be attributed to increased loss aversion. The size of this effect was moderated by psychopathic personality: Fearless dominance, in particular its interpersonal facet, but not self-centered impulsivity, attenuated the effect of incidental fear cues on loss aversion, consistent with reduced fear reactivity. Together, these results highlight the sensitivity of loss aversion to the affective context. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Prospect theory and the decision to move or stay.

PubMed

Clark, William A V; Lisowski, William

2017-09-05

Migration has always involved stress and risk. More risk-averse households are less likely to move, while less risk-averse households will seek out opportunities and migrate. We investigate how the theoretical contributions of prospect theory, and specifically the endowment effect, can provide new understanding about decisions whether to migrate or not. We test the hypothesis that risk aversion extends the length of stay in the dwelling and, by extension, in the local labor and housing markets. How long people remain in place is a function, we hypothesize, of their independently self-assessed propensity to take risks, after controlling for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We use the theoretical insights of prospect theory and the endowment effect (the notion of the "use value" differing from the "exchange value") to explain the likelihood of staying after controlling for life-course events. The results confirm the explanatory power of self-assessed risk in the decision to migrate or stay and, equally important, confirm the role of the endowment effect.

Prospect theory and the decision to move or stay

PubMed Central

Clark, William A. V.

2017-01-01

Migration has always involved stress and risk. More risk-averse households are less likely to move, while less risk-averse households will seek out opportunities and migrate. We investigate how the theoretical contributions of prospect theory, and specifically the endowment effect, can provide new understanding about decisions whether to migrate or not. We test the hypothesis that risk aversion extends the length of stay in the dwelling and, by extension, in the local labor and housing markets. How long people remain in place is a function, we hypothesize, of their independently self-assessed propensity to take risks, after controlling for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We use the theoretical insights of prospect theory and the endowment effect (the notion of the “use value” differing from the “exchange value”) to explain the likelihood of staying after controlling for life-course events. The results confirm the explanatory power of self-assessed risk in the decision to migrate or stay and, equally important, confirm the role of the endowment effect. PMID:28827341

Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

2017-04-01

A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with observed values) and in terms of their economic value. This assessment is performed for lead times of one to five days. The three systems are: (1) simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, (2) forecasts based on meteorological ensembles and (3) a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variables uncertainty. The comparison takes place on the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in south central Quebec, Canada. The results show that forecasts quality as assessed by well-known tools such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score or the reliability diagram do not necessarily translate directly into economic value, especially if the decision maker is not risk-neutral. In addition, results show that the economic value of forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker is very much influenced by the most extreme members of ensemble forecasts (upper tail of the predictive distributions). This study provides a new basis for further improvement of our comprehension of the complex interactions between forecasts uncertainty, risk-aversion and decision-making.

Potential Impact of Risk and Loss Aversion on the Process of Accepting Kidneys for Transplantation.

PubMed

Heilman, Raymond L; Green, Ellen P; Reddy, Kunam S; Moss, Adyr; Kaplan, Bruce

2017-07-01

Behavioral economic theory suggests that people make decisions based on maximizing perceived value; however, this may be influenced more by the risk of loss rather than of potential gain. Additionally, individuals may seek certainty over uncertainty. These are termed loss aversion and risk aversion, respectively. Loss aversion is particularly sensitive to how the decision is "framed." Thus, labeling a kidney as high Kidney Donor Profile Index results in higher discard rates because this creates a nonlinearity in perceived risk. There is also evidence that the perceived loss due to regulatory sanction results in increased organ discard rates. This may be due to the overuse of terminology that stresses regulatory sanctions and thus perpetuates fear of loss through a form of nudging. Our goal is to point out how these concepts of behavioral economics may negatively influence the decision process to accept these suboptimal organs. We hope to make the community more aware of these powerful psychological influences and thus potentially increase the utilization of these suboptimal organs. Further, we would urge regulatory bodies to avoid utilizing strategies that frame outcomes in terms of loss due to flagging and build models that are less prone to uncertain expected versus observed outcomes.

Personality, risk aversion and speeding: an empirical investigation.

PubMed

Greaves, Stephen P; Ellison, Adrian B

2011-09-01

Evidence suggests that in addition to demographics, there are strong relationships between facets of drivers' personality (e.g., aggression, thrill-seeking, altruism), aversion to risk and driving behaviour, particularly speeding. However, evidence is muted by the reliance on self-reported driving behaviour, which is thought to not accurately reflect actual driving behaviour. This paper reports on a study of 133 drivers in Sydney, who were asked to complete a short survey to develop their personality and risk aversion profiles and self-reported speeding behaviour. A Global Positioning System (GPS) device was then installed in their vehicle for several weeks as part of a major investigation of driving behaviour from which empirical measures of speeding are derived. Among the most pertinent findings are: (1) the tendency for drivers to both under and over-estimate their propensity to speed, (2) significant heterogeneity in speeding with a small, but notable number of drivers exceeding the limit for more than 20 percent of the distance driven, (3) weak relationships between the personality/risk-aversion measures and actual speeding, and (4) the suggestion that different personality traits appear to influence behaviour in different situations both from self-reported and actual speeding behaviour. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decisions during Negatively-Framed Messages Yield Smaller Risk-Aversion-Related Brain Activation in Substance-Dependent Individuals

PubMed Central

Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R.; Brown, Joshua W.

2012-01-01

A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared to non-substance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PMID:23148798

Determinants of Propranolol's Selective Effect on Loss Aversion.

PubMed

Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F; Tobe, Russell H; Camerer, Colin F; Leventhal, Bennett L; Phelps, Elizabeth A

2015-07-01

Research on emotion and decision making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions, but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. We used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk attitudes, and choice consistency to risky decision making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention's pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e., as a function of initial loss aversion and body mass index), and did not affect risk attitudes or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of emotion and risky decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

Noisy Preferences in Risky Choice: A Cautionary Note

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

We examine the effects of multiple sources of noise in risky decision making. Noise in the parameters that characterize an individual’s preferences can combine with noise in the response process to distort observed choice proportions. Thus, underlying preferences that conform to expected value maximization can appear to show systematic risk aversion or risk seeking. Similarly, core preferences that are consistent with expected utility theory, when perturbed by such noise, can appear to display nonlinear probability weighting. For this reason, modal choices cannot be used simplistically to infer underlying preferences. Quantitative model fits that do not allow for both sorts of noise can lead to wrong conclusions. PMID:28569526

Heterogeneity and Risk Sharing in Village Economies*

PubMed Central

Chiappori, Pierre-André; Samphantharak, Krislert; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Townsend, Robert M.

2013-01-01

We show how to use panel data on household consumption to directly estimate households’ risk preferences. Specifically, we measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages using a full risk-sharing model, which we then test allowing for this heterogeneity. There is substantial, statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated risk preferences. Full insurance cannot be rejected. As the risk sharing, as-if-complete-markets theory might predict, estimated risk preferences are unrelated to wealth or other characteristics. The heterogeneity matters for policy: Although the average household would benefit from eliminating village-level risk, less-risk-averse households who are paid to absorb that risk would be worse off by several percent of household consumption. PMID:24932226

Integrating forest ecosystem services into the farming landscape: A stochastic economic assessment.

PubMed

Monge, Juan J; Parker, Warren J; Richardson, James W

2016-06-01

The objective of this study was to assess how payments for ecosystem services could assist plantation forestry's integration into pastoral dairy farming in order to improve environmental outcomes and increase business resilience to both price uncertainty and production limits imposed by environmental policies. Stochastic Dominance (SD) criteria and portfolio analysis, accounting for farmers' risk aversion levels, were used to rank different land-use alternatives and landscapes with different levels of plantation forestry integration. The study was focused on a modal 200-ha dairy farm in the Lake Rotorua Catchment of the Central North Island region of New Zealand, where national environmental policies are being implemented to improve water quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Nitrogen and carbon payments would help farmers improve early cash flows for forestry, provide financial leverage to undertake afforestation projects and contribute to improved environmental outcomes for the catchment. The SD criteria demonstrated that although dairy farming generates the highest returns, plantation forestry with nitrogen and carbon payments would be a preferred alternative for landowners with relatively low risk aversion levels who consider return volatility and environmental limits within their land-use change criteria. Using the confidence premium concept, environmental payments to encourage plantation forestry into the landscape were shown to be lower when the majority of landowners are risk averse. The certainty equivalence approach helped to identify the optimal dairy-forestry portfolio arrangements for landowners of different levels of risk aversion, intensities of dairy farming (status quo and intensified) and nitrogen prices. At low nitrogen prices, risk neutral farmers would choose to afforest less than half of the farm and operate at the maximum nitrogen allowance, because dairy farming at both intensities provides the highest return among the different land uses available. However, at relatively low risk aversion levels, farmers would operate at levels below the maximum nitrogen allowance by including plantation forestry to a greater extent, compared to risk neutral farmers, due to its more certain returns. At a high nitrogen price of $400/kg, plantation forestry would completely subsume dairying, across risk aversion and intensity levels. These results confirm that plantation forestry as well as being an environmentally sound land-use alternative, also reduces uncertainty for landowners that are exposed to volatile international markets for dairy commodities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion": Correction to Schulreich, Gerhardt, and Heekeren (2016).

PubMed

2016-12-01

Reports an error in "Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion" by Stefan Schulreich, Holger Gerhardt and Hauke R. Heekeren ( Emotion , 2016[Apr], Vol 16[3], 402-412). In the current article, there was an error in the Study 2 portion of the article. The fourth paragraph of the Results section should read as follows: Performing the same analyses as in Study 1, we found an effect of incidental fear cues on decision behavior. Participants accepted fewer gambles in the fearful-face condition (32.77%) than in the neutral-face condition (33.96%), with Z = -2.187, p = .027, d = -0.998 in the Wilcoxon signed-ranks test and β = 0.012, SE = 0.0053, F(1, 21) = 4.434, p = .047, partial η² = .174 in the linear regression. This suggests increased risk aversion in the fearful-face condition. Concerning personality, however, there were no significant between-subjects effects or between-within interaction effects (all ps = .349). (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2015-52358-001.) In many everyday decisions, people exhibit loss aversion-a greater sensitivity to losses relative to gains of equal size. Loss aversion is thought to be (at least partly) mediated by emotional-in particular, fear-related-processes. Decision research has shown that even incidental emotions, which are unrelated to the decision at hand, can influence decision making. The effect of incidental fear on loss aversion, however, is thus far unclear. In two studies, we experimentally investigated how incidental fear cues, presented during (Study 1) or before (Study 2) choices to accept or reject mixed gambles over real monetary stakes, influence monetary loss aversion. We find that the presentation of fearful faces, relative to the presentation of neutral faces, increased risk aversion-an effect that could be attributed to increased loss aversion. The size of this effect was moderated by psychopathic personality: Fearless dominance, in particular its interpersonal facet, but not self-centered impulsivity, attenuated the effect of incidental fear cues on loss aversion, consistent with reduced fear reactivity. Together, these results highlight the sensitivity of loss aversion to the affective context. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A Decision Analysis Perspective on Multiple Response Robust Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

the utility function in question is monotonically increasing and is twice differentiable . If γ(y) = 0, the utility function is describing risk neutral...twice differentiable , the risk aversion function with respect to a single attribute, yi, i = 1, . . . , n, is given in Equation 2.9, γUyi = − U ′′yi U...UV (V (y1, y2)) and fol- lowing the chain rule of differentiation , Matheson and Abbas [31] show that the risk aversion with respect to a single

Elevated Responding to Safe Conditions as a Specific Risk Factor for Anxiety Versus Depressive Disorders: Evidence From a Longitudinal Investigation

PubMed Central

Craske, Michelle G.; Wolitzky–Taylor, Kate B.; Mineka, Susan; Zinbarg, Richard; Waters, Allison M.; Vrshek–Schallhorn, Suzanne; Epstein, Alyssa; Naliboff, Bruce; Ornitz, Edward

2013-01-01

The current study evaluated the degree to which startle reflexes (SRs) in safe conditions versus danger conditions were predictive of the onset of anxiety disorders. Specificity of these effects to anxiety disorders was evaluated in comparison to unipolar depressive disorders and with consideration of level of neuroticism. A startle paradigm was administered at baseline to 132 nondisordered adolescents as part of a longitudinal study examining risk factors for emotional disorders. Participants underwent a repetition of eight safe-danger sequences and were told that delivery of an aversive stimulus leading to a muscle contraction of the arm would occur only in the late part of danger conditions. One aversive stimulus occurred midway in the safe-danger sequences. Participants were assessed for the onset of anxiety and unipolar depressive disorders annually over the next 3 to 4 years. Larger SR magnitude during safe conditions following delivery of the aversive stimulus predicted the subsequent first onset of anxiety disorders. Moreover, prediction of the onset of anxiety disorders remained significant above and beyond the effects of comorbid unipolar depression, neuroticism, and subjective ratings of intensity of the aversive stimulus. In sum, elevated responding to safe conditions following an aversive stimulus appears to be a specific, prospective risk factor for the first onset of anxiety disorders. PMID:21988452

Behavioral economics survey of patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes

PubMed Central

Emoto, Naoya; Okajima, Fumitaka; Sugihara, Hitoshi; Goto, Rei

2015-01-01

Background Adherence to treatment and the metabolic control of diabetes are challenging in many patients with diabetes. The theory of neuroeconomics can provide important clues for understanding unreasonable human behavior concerning decisions between outcomes occurring at different time points. Objective We investigated patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes to determine whether patients who are at a risk of developing complications are less risk averse. We also examined whether patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes have different behavioral traits in decision making under risk. Methods We conducted a behavioral economics survey of 219 outpatients, 66 with type 1 diabetes and 153 with type 2 diabetes. All patients had been referred by general practitioners or other departments in the hospital. At the time of the survey, levels of hemoglobin A1c were not significantly different between patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Results Patients with type 2 diabetes showed a lower response rate to the survey compared with patients with type 1 diabetes (71.9% vs 87.9%, P<0.01). Logistic regression analysis indicated that diabetic retinopathy was negatively associated with risk averse in pricing of hypothetical lotteries, myopic time preference, willingness to pay for preventive medicine, and levels of satisfaction with life. Diabetic nephropathy was also negatively associated with risk averse in pricing of hypothetical lotteries. Detailed analysis revealed that a lower proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes (22.7%) were categorized as risk averse compared with patients with type 1 diabetes (43.1%, P<0.05) in hypothetical lottery risk estimation. Conclusion This is the first report that investigated patients with diabetes in a clinical setting using a method based on behavioral economics. The results suggest that the attitude of patients toward risk plays an important role in the progress of the complications of diabetes. Different educational and psychological approaches may be necessary to assess patients with diabetes based on whether they have traits such as risk seeking or risk averse. PMID:25999700

Decision Making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): Anterior Cingulate Cortex Signals Loss-Aversion but not the Infrequency of Risky Choices

PubMed Central

Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W.; Bogg, Tim

2012-01-01

The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision-making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss-aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss-aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward-seeking. However, in the cingulate and mainly bilateral IFG regions, BOLD activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings consistent with a reduced loss-aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision-making, as well as the importance of distinguishing decision and feedback signals. PMID:22707378

Risk aversion and willingness to pay for water quality: The case of non-farm rural residents.

PubMed

Larue, Bruno; West, Gale E; Singbo, Alphonse; Tamini, Lota Dabio

2017-07-15

Stated choice experiments are used to investigate the economic valuation of rural residents living in the province of Quebec for water quality improvements. In Quebec, rural residents played an important role in the setting of stricter environmental regulations. Unlike most stated choice experiments about the valuation of improvements in water quality, this study explicitly accounts for risk in the design and analysis of choice experiments. Risk in phosphorus and coliform reductions is introduced through a three-point uniform distribution in the choice sets. The results show greater support for constant absolute risk aversion preferences than for constant relative risk aversion. Rural residents value coliform and phosphorus reductions and the more educated ones are particularly willing to see the government tax farmers and taxpayers to secure such reductions. As the science improves and risk in water quality outcomes decrease and as the political weight of non-farm rural residents increase, it should be easier for governments to replace voluntary cost-share programs by polluter-payer programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Effectiveness of Health-Risk Communications with Propensity-Score Matching: Application to Arsenic Groundwater Contamination in Four US Locations

PubMed Central

Leidner, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

This paper provides a demonstration of propensity-score matching estimation methods to evaluate the effectiveness of health-risk communication efforts. This study develops a two-stage regression model to investigate household and respondent characteristics as they contribute to aversion behavior to reduce exposure to arsenic-contaminated groundwater. The aversion activity under study is a household-level point-of-use filtration device. Since the acquisition of arsenic contamination information and the engagement in an aversion activity may be codetermined, a two-stage propensity-score model is developed. In the first stage, the propensity for households to acquire arsenic contamination information is estimated. Then, the propensity scores are used to weight observations in a probit regression on the decision to avert the arsenic-related health risk. Of four potential sources of information, utility, media, friend, or others, information received from a friend appears to be the source of information most associated with aversion behavior. Other statistically significant covariates in the household's decision to avert contamination include reported household income, the presence of children in household, and region-level indicator variables. These findings are primarily illustrative and demonstrate the usefulness of propensity-score methods to estimate health-risk communication effectiveness. They may also be suggestive of areas for future research. PMID:25349622

Decisions during negatively-framed messages yield smaller risk-aversion-related brain activation in substance-dependent individuals.

PubMed

Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R; Brown, Joshua W

2013-12-01

A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional MRI, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared with nonsubstance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Local operators in kinetic wealth distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrecut, M.

2016-05-01

The statistical mechanics approach to wealth distribution is based on the conservative kinetic multi-agent model for money exchange, where the local interaction rule between the agents is analogous to the elastic particle scattering process. Here, we discuss the role of a class of conservative local operators, and we show that, depending on the values of their parameters, they can be used to generate all the relevant distributions. We also show numerically that in order to generate the power-law tail, an heterogeneous risk aversion model is required. By changing the parameters of these operators, one can also fine tune the resulting distributions in order to provide support for the emergence of a more egalitarian wealth distribution.

Explanations for side effect aversion in preventive medical treatment decisions

PubMed Central

Waters, Erika A.; Weinstein, Neil D.; Colditz, Graham A.; Emmons, Karen

2008-01-01

Objective Many laypeople demonstrate excessive sensitivity to negative side effects of medical treatments, which may lead them to refuse beneficial therapies. This Internet-based experiment investigated three possible explanations for such “side effect aversion.” One was derived from mental accounting, one examined the mere presence of a side effect, and one focused on computational difficulties. Design Participants (N = 5,379) were presented with a hypothetical cancer preventive treatment situation that was or was not accompanied by one or two small side effects. The side effects were either beneficial or harmful. In all conditions the net absolute risk reduction associated with the treatment was 15%. Main Outcome Measures Participants indicated their willingness to accept treatment and their perceptions of the treatment’s effects on their overall cancer risk. Results Data were consistent only with the “mere presence” explanation of side effect aversion, the idea that side effects act as a strong negative cue that directly affects treatment appraisal. The number of negative side effects did not influence treatment willingness. Conclusion Side effect aversion is a challenge to informed decision making. Specific mechanisms that produce side effect aversion should be identified. PMID:19290712

Thirst-dependent risk preferences in monkeys identify a primitive form of wealth.

PubMed

Yamada, Hiroshi; Tymula, Agnieszka; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W

2013-09-24

Experimental economic techniques have been widely used to evaluate human risk attitudes, but how these measured attitudes relate to overall individual wealth levels is unclear. Previous noneconomic work has addressed this uncertainty in animals by asking the following: (i) Do our close evolutionary relatives share both our risk attitudes and our degree of economic rationality? And (ii) how does the amount of food or water one holds (a nonpecuniary form of "wealth") alter risk attitudes in these choosers? Unfortunately, existing noneconomic studies have provided conflicting insights from an economic point of view. We therefore used standard techniques from human experimental economics to measure monkey risk attitudes for water rewards as a function of blood osmolality (an objective measure of how much water the subjects possess). Early in training, monkeys behaved randomly, consistently violating first-order stochastic dominance and monotonicity. After training, they behaved like human choosers--technically consistent in their choices and weakly risk averse (i.e., risk averse or risk neutral on average)--suggesting that well-trained monkeys can serve as a model for human choice behavior. As with attitudes about money in humans, these risk attitudes were strongly wealth dependent; as the animals became "poorer," risk aversion increased, a finding incompatible with some models of wealth and risk in human decision making.

Dissociable effects of basolateral amygdala lesions on decision making biases in rats when loss or gain is emphasized.

PubMed

Tremblay, Melanie; Cocker, Paul J; Hosking, Jay G; Zeeb, Fiona D; Rogers, Robert D; Winstanley, Catharine A

2014-12-01

Individuals switch from risk seeking to risk aversion when mathematically identical options are described in terms of loss versus gains, as exemplified in the reflection and framing effects. Determining the neurobiology underlying such cognitive biases could inform our understanding of decision making in health and disease. Although reports vary, data using human subjects have implicated the amygdala in such biases. Animal models enable more detailed investigation of neurobiological mechanisms. We therefore tested whether basolateral amygdala (BLA) lesions would affect risk preference for gains or losses in rats. Choices in both paradigms were always between options of equal expected value-a guaranteed outcome, or the 50:50 chance of double or nothing. In the loss-chasing task, most rats exhibited strong risk seeking preferences, gambling at the risk of incurring double the penalty, regardless of the size of the guaranteed loss. In the betting task, the majority of animals were equivocal in their choice, irrespective of bet size; however, a wager-sensitive subgroup progressively shifted away from the uncertain option as the bet size increased, which is reminiscent of risk aversion. BLA lesions increased preference for the smaller guaranteed loss in the loss-chasing task, without affecting choice on the betting task, which is indicative of reduced risk seeking for losses, but intact risk aversion for gains. These data support the hypothesis that the amygdala plays a more prominent role in choice biases related to losses. Given the importance of the amygdala in representing negative affect, the aversive emotional reaction to loss, rather than aberrant estimations of probability or loss magnitude, may underlie risk seeking for losses.

A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

PubMed

Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

2012-11-01

The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ < × < G), loss (MR ≤ x < SQ), and failure (x < MR). The psychological impact of achieving or failing to achieve these reference points is rank ordered as MR > G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

The Effects of a Change in the Variability of Irrigation Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, Kenneth S.

1983-10-01

This paper examines the short-run effects upon several variables of an increase in the variability of an input. The measure of an increase in the variability is the "mean preserving spread" suggested by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970). The variables examined are real income (utility), expected profits, expected output, the quantity used of the controllable input, and the shadow price of the stochastic input. Four striking features of the results follow: (1) The concepts that have been useful in summarizing deterministic comparative static results are nearly absent when an input is stochastic. (2) Most of the signs of the partial derivatives depend upon more than concavity of the utility and production functions. (3) If the utility function is not "too" risk averse, then the risk-neutral results hold for the risk-aversion case. (4) If the production function is Cobb-Douglas, then definite results are achieved if the utility function is linear or if the "degree of risk-aversion" is "small."

Determinants of propranolol’s selective effect on loss aversion

PubMed Central

Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F.; Tobe, Russell H.; Camerer, Colin F.; Leventhal, Bennett L.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2015-01-01

Research on emotion and decision-making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions (e.g., Bechara et al., 1997), but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. Here, we used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk sensitivity and choice consistency to risky decision-making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention’s pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision-making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e. as a function of initial loss aversion and body-mass index), and did not affect risk sensitivity or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of both emotion and risky decision-making. PMID:26063441

Does ambiguity aversion influence the framing effect during decision making?

PubMed

Osmont, Anaïs; Cassotti, Mathieu; Agogué, Marine; Houdé, Olivier; Moutier, Sylvain

2015-04-01

Decision-makers present a systematic tendency to avoid ambiguous options for which the level of risk is unknown. This ambiguity aversion is one of the most striking decision-making biases. Given that human choices strongly depend on the options' presentation, the purpose of the present study was to examine whether ambiguity aversion influences the framing effect during decision making. We designed a new financial decision-making task involving the manipulation of both frame and uncertainty levels. Thirty-seven participants had to choose between a sure option and a gamble depicting either clear or ambiguous probabilities. The results revealed a clear preference for the sure option in the ambiguity condition regardless of frame. However, participants presented a framing effect in both the risk and ambiguity conditions. Indeed, the framing effect was bidirectional in the risk condition and unidirectional in the ambiguity condition given that it did not involve preference reversal but only a more extreme choice tendency.

Risk management for sulfur dioxide abatement under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, C.; Sun, W.; Tan, Q.; Liu, Y.; Lu, W. T.; Guo, H. C.

2016-03-01

In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming (ICTP) method. The ICTP method had several advantages: (i) its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; (ii) it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; (iii) it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and (iv) it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.

I Can Stomach That! Fearlessness About Death Predicts Attenuated Facial Electromyography Activity in Response to Death-Related Images.

PubMed

Velkoff, Elizabeth A; Forrest, Lauren N; Dodd, Dorian R; Smith, April R

2016-06-01

Objective measures of suicide risk can convey life-saving information to clinicians, but few such measures exist. This study examined an objective measure of fearlessness about death (FAD), testing whether FAD relates to self-reported and physiological aversion to death. Females (n = 87) reported FAD and disgust sensitivity, and facial electromyography was used to measure physiological facial responses consistent with disgust while viewing death-related images. FAD predicted attenuated expression of physiological death aversion, even when controlling for self-reported death-related disgust sensitivity. Diminished physiological aversion to death-related stimuli holds promise as an objective measure of FAD and suicide risk. © 2015 The American Association of Suicidology.

Wealth and price distribution by diffusive approximation in a repeated prediction market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele

2017-04-01

The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of a repeated prediction market model is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth difference can be reliably exploited to compute all the quantities of interest in all the acceptable parameter space. When the risk aversion of the trader is high enough, we are able to derive an explicit closed-form solution for the price distribution which is asymptotically correct.

Noisy preferences in risky choice: A cautionary note.

PubMed

Bhatia, Sudeep; Loomes, Graham

2017-10-01

We examine the effects of multiple sources of noise in risky decision making. Noise in the parameters that characterize an individual's preferences can combine with noise in the response process to distort observed choice proportions. Thus, underlying preferences that conform to expected value maximization can appear to show systematic risk aversion or risk seeking. Similarly, core preferences that are consistent with expected utility theory, when perturbed by such noise, can appear to display nonlinear probability weighting. For this reason, modal choices cannot be used simplistically to infer underlying preferences. Quantitative model fits that do not allow for both sorts of noise can lead to wrong conclusions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Approach–Avoidance Processes Contribute to Dissociable Impacts of Risk and Loss on Choice

PubMed Central

Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Hodgson, Karen; Fitzgerald, Thomas H. B.; Crawford, Bonni; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Value-based choices are influenced both by risk in potential outcomes and by whether outcomes reflect potential gains or losses. These variables are held to be related in a specific fashion, manifest in risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses. Instead, we hypothesized that there are independent impacts of risk and loss on choice such that, depending on context, subjects can show either risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses or the exact opposite. We demonstrate this independence in a gambling task, by selectively reversing a loss-induced effect (causing more gambling for gains than losses and the reverse) while leaving risk aversion unaffected. Consistent with these dissociable behavioral impacts of risk and loss, fMRI data revealed dissociable neural correlates of these variables, with parietal cortex tracking risk and orbitofrontal cortex and striatum tracking loss. Based on our neural data, we hypothesized that risk and loss influence action selection through approach–avoidance mechanisms, a hypothesis supported in an experiment in which we show valence and risk-dependent reaction time effects in line with this putative mechanism. We suggest that in the choice process risk and loss can independently engage approach–avoidance mechanisms. This can provide a novel explanation for how risk influences action selection and explains both classically described choice behavior as well as behavioral patterns not predicted by existing theory. PMID:22593069

Risk aversion and religious behaviour: Analysis using a sample of Danish twins.

PubMed

Nielsen, Jytte Seested; Bech, Mickael; Christensen, Kaare; Kiil, Astrid; Hvidt, Niels Christian

2017-08-01

Economics offers an analytical framework to consider human behaviour including religious behaviour. Within the realm of Expected Utility Theory, religious belief and activity could be interpreted as an insurance both for current life events and for afterlife rewards. Based on that framework, we would expect that risk averse individuals would demand a more generous protection plan which they may do by devoting more effort and resources into religious activities such as church attendance and prayer, which seems to be in accordance with previous empirical results. However, a general concern regards the problems of spurious correlations due to underlying omitted or unobservable characteristics shaping both religious activities and risk attitudes. This paper examines empirically the demand for religion by analysing the association between risk attitudes on the one hand, and church attandance and prayer frequency on the other controlling for unobservable variables using survey data of Danish same-sex twin pairs. We verify the correlation between risk preferences and religion found previously by carrying out cross-sectional analyses. We also show that the association between risk attitudes and religious behaviour is driven by the subgroup of individuals who believe in an afterlife. In addition, when re-analysing our results using panel data analyses which cancel out shared factors among twin pairs, we find that the correlation found between risk aversion and religious behaviour is no longer significant indicating that other factors might explain differences in religious behaviour. Caution is needed in the interpretation of our results as the insignificant association between risk aversion and religious behaviour in the panel data analyses potentially might be due to measurement error causing attenuation bias or lack of variation within twin pairs rather than the actual absence of an association. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhanced striatal sensitivity to aversive reinforcement in adolescents versus adults.

PubMed

Galván, Adriana; McGlennen, Kristine M

2013-02-01

Neurodevelopmental changes in mesolimbic regions are associated with adolescent risk-taking behavior. Numerous studies have shown exaggerated activation in the striatum in adolescents compared with children and adults during reward processing. However, striatal sensitivity to aversion remains elusive. Given the important role of the striatum in tracking both appetitive and aversive events, addressing this question is critical to understanding adolescent decision-making, as both positive and negative factors contribute to this behavior. In this study, human adult and adolescent participants performed a task in which they received squirts of appetitive or aversive liquid while undergoing fMRI, a novel approach in human adolescents. Compared with adults, adolescents showed greater behavioral and striatal sensitivity to both appetitive and aversive stimuli, an effect that was exaggerated in response to delivery of the aversive stimulus. Collectively, these findings contribute to understanding how neural responses to positive and negative outcomes differ between adolescents and adults and how they may influence adolescent behavior.

Decision making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): anterior cingulate cortex signals loss aversion but not the infrequency of risky choices.

PubMed

Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W; Bogg, Tim

2012-09-01

The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 8, 75-84, 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether the ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward seeking. However, in the cingulate and in mainly bilateral IFG regions, blood-oxygenation-level-dependent activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings that are consistent with a reduced loss aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision making, as well as the importance of distinguishing between decision and feedback signals.

Unpleasant odors increase aversion to monetary losses.

PubMed

Stancak, Andrej; Xie, Yuxin; Fallon, Nicholas; Bulsing, Patricia; Giesbrecht, Timo; Thomas, Anna; Pantelous, Athanasios A

2015-04-01

Loss aversion is the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains of equal nominal values. Unpleasant odors not only influence affective state but have also been shown to activate brain regions similar to those mediating loss aversion. Therefore, we hypothesized a stronger loss aversion in a monetary gamble task if gambles were associated with an unpleasant as opposed to pleasant odor. In thirty human subjects, unpleasant (methylmercaptan), pleasant (jasmine), and neutral (clean air) odors were presented for 4 s. At the same time, uncertain gambles offering an equal chance of gain or loss of a variable amount of money, or a prospect of an assured win were displayed. One hundred different gambles were presented three times, each time paired with a different odor. Loss aversion, risk aversion, and logit sensitivity were evaluated using non-linear fitting of individual gamble decisions. Loss aversion was larger when prospects were displayed in the presence of methylmercaptan compared to jasmine or clean air. Moreover, individual differences in changes in loss aversion to the unpleasant as compared to pleasant odor correlated with odor pleasantness but not with odor intensity. Skin conductance responses to losses during the outcome period were larger when gambles were associated with methylmercaptan compared to jasmine. Increased loss aversion while perceiving an unpleasant odor suggests a dynamic adjustment of loss aversion toward greater sensitivity to losses. Given that odors are biological signals of hazards, such adjustment of loss aversion may have adaptive value in situations entailing threat or danger. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A pilot study of loss aversion for drug and non-drug commodities in cocaine users.

PubMed

Strickland, Justin C; Beckmann, Joshua S; Rush, Craig R; Stoops, William W

2017-11-01

Numerous studies in behavioral economics have demonstrated that individuals are more sensitive to the prospect of a loss than a gain (i.e., loss aversion). Although loss aversion has been well described in "healthy" populations, little research exists in individuals with substance use disorders. This gap is notable considering the prominent role that choice and decision-making play in drug use. The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate loss aversion in active cocaine users. Current cocaine users (N=38; 42% female) participated in this within-subjects laboratory pilot study. Subjects completed a battery of tasks designed to assess loss aversion for drug and non-drug commodities under varying risk conditions. Standardized loss aversion coefficients (λ) were compared to theoretically and empirically relevant normative values (i.e., λ=2). Compared to normative loss aversion coefficient values, a precise and consistent decrease in loss aversion was observed in cocaine users (sample λ≈1). These values were observed across drug and non-drug commodities as well as under certain and risky conditions. These data represent the first systematic study of loss aversion in cocaine-using populations and provide evidence for equal sensitivity to losses and gains or loss equivalence. Futures studies should evaluate the specificity of these effects to a history of cocaine use as well as the impact of manipulations of loss aversion on drug use to determine how this phenomenon may contribute to intervention development efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision-making in Multiple Sclerosis: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity for Therapeutic Inertia among Neurologists (DIScUTIR MS).

PubMed

Saposnik, Gustavo; Sempere, Angel P; Prefasi, Daniel; Selchen, Daniel; Ruff, Christian C; Maurino, Jorge; Tobler, Philippe N

2017-01-01

Limited information is available on physician-related factors influencing therapeutic inertia (TI) in multiple sclerosis (MS). Our aim was to evaluate whether physicians' risk preferences are associated with TI in MS care, by applying concepts from behavioral economics. In this cross-sectional study, participants answered questions regarding the management of 20 MS case scenarios, completed 3 surveys, and 4 experimental paradigms based on behavioral economics. Surveys and experiments included standardized measures of aversion ambiguity in financial and health domains, physicians' reactions to uncertainty in patient care, and questions related to risk preferences in different domains. The primary outcome was TI when physicians faced a need for escalating therapy based on clinical (new relapse) and magnetic resonance imaging activity while patients were on a disease-modifying agent. Of 161 neurologists who were invited to participate in the project, 136 cooperated with the study (cooperation rate 84.5%) and 96 completed the survey (response rate: 60%). TI was present in 68.8% of participants. Similar results were observed for definitions of TI based on modified Rio or clinical progression. Aversion to ambiguity was associated with higher prevalence of TI (86.4% with high aversion to ambiguity vs. 63.5% with lower or no aversion to ambiguity; p  = 0.042). In multivariate analyses, high aversion to ambiguity was the strongest predictor of TI (OR 7.39; 95%CI 1.40-38.9), followed by low tolerance to uncertainty (OR 3.47; 95%CI 1.18-10.2). TI is a common phenomenon affecting nearly 7 out of 10 physicians caring for MS patients. Higher prevalence of TI was associated with physician's strong aversion to ambiguity and low tolerance of uncertainty.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

PubMed

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Playing it safe but losing anyway--serotonergic signaling of negative outcomes in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex in the context of risk-aversion.

PubMed

Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina; Elliott, Rebecca; Paulson, Olaf B; Knudsen, Gitte M; Siebner, Hartwig R

2013-08-01

Risk avoidance is an important determinant of human behavior. The neurotransmitter serotonin has been implicated in processing negative outcomes caused by risky decisions. However, it is unclear whether serotonin provides a neurobiological link between making a risk aversive decision and the response to a negative outcome. Using pharmacological fMRI, we manipulated the availability of serotonin in healthy volunteers while performing a gambling task. The same group of participants was studied in three fMRI sessions: (i) during intravenous administration of the SSRI citalopram to increase the serotonergic tone, (ii) after acute tryptophan depletion (ATD) to reduce central serotonin levels, or (iii) without interventions. ATD and citalopram had opposite effects on outcome related activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and amygdala. Relative to the control condition, ATD increased and citalopram decreased the neural response to negative outcomes in dmPFC. Conversely, ATD decreased and citalopram increased the neural response to negative outcomes in left amygdala. Critically, these pharmacological effects were restricted to negative outcomes that were caused by low-risk decisions and led to a high missed reward. ATD and citalopram did not alter the neural response to positive outcomes in dmPFC, but relative to ATD, citalopram produced a bilateral increase in the amygdala response to large wins caused by high-risk choices. The results show a selective involvement of the serotonergic system in neocortical processing of negative outcomes resulting from risk-averse decisions, thereby linking risk aversion and processing of negative outcomes in goal-directed behaviors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Thirst-dependent risk preferences in monkeys identify a primitive form of wealth

PubMed Central

Yamada, Hiroshi; Tymula, Agnieszka; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.

2013-01-01

Experimental economic techniques have been widely used to evaluate human risk attitudes, but how these measured attitudes relate to overall individual wealth levels is unclear. Previous noneconomic work has addressed this uncertainty in animals by asking the following: (i) Do our close evolutionary relatives share both our risk attitudes and our degree of economic rationality? And (ii) how does the amount of food or water one holds (a nonpecuniary form of “wealth”) alter risk attitudes in these choosers? Unfortunately, existing noneconomic studies have provided conflicting insights from an economic point of view. We therefore used standard techniques from human experimental economics to measure monkey risk attitudes for water rewards as a function of blood osmolality (an objective measure of how much water the subjects possess). Early in training, monkeys behaved randomly, consistently violating first-order stochastic dominance and monotonicity. After training, they behaved like human choosers—technically consistent in their choices and weakly risk averse (i.e., risk averse or risk neutral on average)—suggesting that well-trained monkeys can serve as a model for human choice behavior. As with attitudes about money in humans, these risk attitudes were strongly wealth dependent; as the animals became “poorer,” risk aversion increased, a finding incompatible with some models of wealth and risk in human decision making. PMID:24019461

Motivational state and reward content determine choice behavior under risk in mice.

PubMed

Leblond, Mona; Fan, David; Brynildsen, Julia K; Yin, Henry H

2011-01-01

Risk is a ubiquitous feature of the environment for most organisms, who must often choose between a small and certain reward and a larger but less certain reward. To study choice behavior under risk in a genetically well characterized species, we trained mice (C57BL/6) on a discrete trial, concurrent-choice task in which they must choose between two levers. Pressing one lever (safe choice) is always followed by a small reward. Pressing the other lever (risky choice) is followed by a larger reward, but only on some of the trials. The overall payoff is the same on both levers. When mice were not food deprived, they were indifferent to risk, choosing both levers with equal probability regardless of the level of risk. In contrast, following food or water deprivation, mice earning 10% sucrose solution were risk-averse, though the addition of alcohol to the sucrose solution dose-dependently reduced risk aversion, even before the mice became intoxicated. Our results falsify the budget rule in optimal foraging theory often used to explain behavior under risk. Instead, they suggest that the overall demand or desired amount for a particular reward determines risk preference. Changes in motivational state or reward identity affect risk preference by changing demand. Any manipulation that increases the demand for a reward also increases risk aversion, by selectively increasing the frequency of safe choices without affecting frequency of risky choices.

How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

2017-03-01

Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expressing negative emotions to children: Mothers' aversion sensitivity and children's adjustment.

PubMed

Moed, Anat; Dix, Theodore; Anderson, Edward R; Greene, Shannon M

2017-03-01

Research is unclear about when expressing negative emotions to children performs valuable socialization and regulatory functions and when, instead, it undermines children's adjustment. In this study, we isolated 1 kind of negative expression to test the aversion sensitivity hypothesis: that rapid increases in mothers' negativity as a function of increases in the aversiveness of children's behavior are uniquely problematic for children. During multiple assessments of a divorcing sample over 2 years (N = 284), 12-min interactions between mothers and their 4- to 11-year-old children were recorded. Forty-seven observed child behaviors were ranked from low to high aversive. Within-dyad changes demonstrated that mothers' general negativity-their tendency to express negative emotion at high rates-was unrelated to children's adjustment. In contrast, mothers' aversion-focused negativity-their tendency to increase negative emotional expression rapidly as the aversiveness of children's behavior increased-predicted children's poor social competence, poor emotion regulation, and externalizing behavior problems at the next assessment. The findings suggest that negative expression that reflects mothers' affective sensitivity to aversive child behavior may promote interaction patterns and adaptations in children that are particularly likely to place children at risk for adjustment problems. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Radiation-induced taste aversion: effects of radiation exposure level and the exposure-taste interval

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spector, A.C.; Smith, J.C.; Hollander, G.R.

1986-05-01

Radiation-induced taste aversion has been suggested to possibly play a role in the dietary difficulties observed in some radiotherapy patients. In rats, these aversions can still be formed even when the radiation exposure precedes the taste experience by several hours. This study was conducted to examine whether increasing the radiation exposure level could extend the range of the exposure-taste interval that would still support the formation of a taste aversion. Separate groups of rats received either a 100 or 300 R gamma-ray exposure followed 1, 3, 6, or 24 h later by a 10-min saccharin (0.1% w/v) presentation. A controlmore » group received a sham exposure followed 1 h later by a 10-min saccharin presentation. Twenty-four hours following the saccharin presentation all rats received a series of twelve 23-h two-bottle preference tests between saccharin and water. The results indicated that the duration of the exposure-taste interval plays an increasingly more important role in determining the initial extent of the aversion as the dose decreases. The course of recovery from taste aversion seems more affected by dose than by the temporal parameters of the conditioning trial.« less

Steeper discounting of delayed rewards in schizophrenia but not first-degree relatives.

PubMed

Yu, Linda Q; Lee, Sangil; Katchmar, Natalie; Satterthwaite, Theodore D; Kable, Joseph W; Wolf, Daniel H

2017-06-01

Excessive discounting of future rewards has been related to a variety of risky behaviors and adverse clinical conditions. Prior work examining delay discounting in schizophrenia suggests an elevated discount rate. However, it remains uncertain whether this reflects the disease process itself or an underlying genetic vulnerability, whether it is selective for delay discounting or reflects pervasive changes in decision-making, and whether it is driven by specific clinical dimensions such as cognitive impairment. Here we investigated delay discounting, as well as loss aversion and risk aversion, in three groups: schizophrenia (SZ), unaffected first-degree family members (FM), and controls without a family history of psychosis (NC). SZ had elevated discounting, without changes in loss aversion or risk aversion. Contrary to expectations, the FM group did not show an intermediate phenotype in discounting. Higher discount rates correlated with lower cognitive performance on verbal reasoning, but this did not explain elevated discount rates in SZ. Group differences were driven primarily by the non-smoking majority of the sample. This study provides further evidence for elevated discounting in schizophrenia, and demonstrates that steeper discounting is not necessarily associated with familial risk, cannot be wholly accounted for by cognitive deficits, and is not attributable to smoking-related impulsivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospect Theory for Online Financial Trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang-Yu; Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Martino, Mauro; Altshuler, Yaniv

2014-03-01

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome. People are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called ``loss aversion''. Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well studied in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few empirical research and most of them has been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze the trading activities of over 1.5 million members of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behaviour of ``winners'' and ``losers'', i.e., traders with positive or negative final net profit, we find clear evidence of the loss aversion phenomenon, an essence in prospect theory. This work demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory. It has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the effect of loss aversion. It also provides opportunity to augment online social trading, where users are allowed to watch and follow the trading activity of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behaviour.

Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

PubMed

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

2013-12-01

Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

Inconsistent Investment and Consumption Problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kronborg, Morten Tolver, E-mail: mtk@atp.dk; Steffensen, Mogens, E-mail: mogens@math.ku.dk

In a traditional Black–Scholes market we develop a verification theorem for a general class of investment and consumption problems where the standard dynamic programming principle does not hold. The theorem is an extension of the standard Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation in the form of a system of non-linear differential equations. We derive the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-variance investor without pre-commitment endowed with labor income. In the case of constant risk aversion it turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is independent of wealth. The optimal consumption strategy is given as a deterministic bang-bangmore » strategy. In order to have a more realistic model we allow the risk aversion to be time and state dependent. Of special interest is the case were the risk aversion is inversely proportional to present wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. Using the verification theorem we give a detailed analysis of this problem. It turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is given by a linear function of wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. The optimal consumption strategy is again given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. We also calculate, for a general time and state dependent risk aversion function, the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-standard deviation investor without pre-commitment. In that case, it turns out that it is optimal to take no risk at all.« less

The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

PubMed

Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

PubMed Central

Xu, Sheng-hua; Xiong, Neal N.

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. PMID:25147845

It's all about gains: Risk preferences in problem gambling.

PubMed

Ring, Patrick; Probst, Catharina C; Neyse, Levent; Wolff, Stephan; Kaernbach, Christian; van Eimeren, Thilo; Camerer, Colin F; Schmidt, Ulrich

2018-06-07

Problem gambling is a serious socioeconomic problem involving high individual and social costs. In this article, we study risk preferences of problem gamblers including their risk attitudes in the gain and loss domains, their weighting of probabilities, and their degree of loss aversion. Our findings indicate that problem gamblers are systematically more risk taking and less sensitive toward changes in probabilities in the gain domain only. Neither their risk attitudes in the loss domain nor their degree of loss aversion are significantly different from the controls. Additional evidence for a similar degree of sensitivity toward negative outcomes is gained from skin conductance data-a psychophysiological marker for emotional arousal-in a threat-of-shock task. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Anticipating the perceived risk of nanotechnologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satterfield, Terre; Kandlikar, Milind; Beaudrie, Christian E. H.; Conti, Joseph; Herr Harthorn, Barbara

2009-11-01

Understanding emerging trends in public perceptions of nanomaterials is critically important for those who regulate risks. A number of surveys have explored public perceptions of their risks and benefits. In this paper we meta-analyse these surveys to assess the extent to which the following four hypotheses derived from previous studies of new technologies might be said to be valid for nanotechnologies: risk aversion will prevail over benefit appreciation; an increase in knowledge will not result in reduced aversion to risks; judgements will be malleable and subject to persuasion given risk-centric information; and contextual, psychometric and attitudinal predictors of perceived risk from prior studies can help anticipate future perceptions of nanotechnologies. We find that half the public has at least some familiarity with nanotechnology, and those who perceive greater benefits outnumber those who perceive greater risks by 3 to 1. However, a large minority of those surveyed (44%) is unsure, suggesting that risk judgements are highly malleable. Nanotechnology risk perceptions also appear to contradict some long-standing findings. In particular, unfamiliarity with nanotechnology is, contrary to expectations, not strongly associated with risk aversion and reduced `knowledge deficits' are correlated with positive perceptions in this early and controversy-free period. Psychometric variables, trust and affect continue to drive risk perceptions in this new context, although the influence of both trust and affect is mediated, even reversed, by demographic and cultural variables. Given the potential malleability of perceptions, novel methods for understanding future public responses to nanotechnologies will need to be developed.

Side Effect Perceptions and Their Impact on Treatment Decisions in Women.

PubMed

Waters, Erika A; Pachur, Thorsten; Colditz, Graham A

2017-04-01

Side effects prompt some patients to forego otherwise-beneficial therapies. This study explored which characteristics make side effects particularly aversive. We used a psychometric approach, originating from research on risk perception, to identify the factors (or components) underlying side effect perceptions. Women ( N = 149) aged 40 to 74 years were recruited from a patient registry to complete an online experiment. Participants were presented with hypothetical scenarios in which an effective and necessary medication conferred a small risk of a single side effect (e.g., nausea, dizziness). They rated a broad range of side effects on several characteristics (e.g., embarrassing, treatable). In addition, we collected 4 measures of aversiveness for each side effect: choosing to take the medication, willingness to pay to avoid the side effect (WTP), negative affective attitude associated with the side effect, and how each side effect ranks among others in terms of undesirability. A principal components analysis (PCA) was used to identify the components underlying side effect perceptions. Then, for each aversiveness measure separately, regression analyses were used to determine which components predicted differences in aversiveness among the side effects. The PCA revealed 4 components underlying side effect perceptions: affective challenge (e.g., frightening), social challenge (e.g., disfiguring), physical challenge (e.g., painful), and familiarity (e.g., common). Side effects perceived as affectively and physically challenging elicited the highest levels of aversiveness across all 4 measures. Understanding what side effect characteristics are most aversive may inform interventions to improve medical decisions and facilitate the translation of novel biomedical therapies into clinical practice.

The dynamic nature of risk perceptions after a fatal transit accident.

PubMed

Wernstedt, Kris; Murray-Tuite, Pamela

2015-03-01

In 2009, two trains of Washington, DC's Metrorail system collided, resulting in nine deaths and 50 serious injuries. Based on a multiwave survey of Metrorail users in the months after the crash, this article reports how the accident appears to have (1) changed over time the tradeoffs among safety, speed, frequency of service, cost, and reliability that the transit users stated they were willing to make in the postaccident period and (2) altered transit users' concerns about safety as a function of time and distance from the accident site. We employ conditional logit models to examine tradeoffs among stated preferences for system performance measures after the accident, as well as the influence that respondent characteristics of transit use, location, income, age, and gender have on these preference tradeoffs. As expected, respondents appear averse to longer headways between trains, longer travel durations, higher travel costs, a higher number of late trains, and a higher number of fatalities. The models also show evidence of higher aversion to fatalities from transit system operation among females compared to males. In addition, respondents less experienced with Metrorail travel and those with lower household incomes show higher aversion to fatalities, and this aversion increases as a subject's psychological distance from the accident site decreases. Contrary to expectations shaped by previous studies, aversion to fatalities appears to have increased between the early months after the accident and the end of the survey period, and the expected relationship between age and aversion to fatalities is not statistically significant. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Side Effect Perceptions and their Impact on Treatment Decisions in Women

PubMed Central

Waters, Erika A.; Pachur, Thorsten; Colditz, Graham A.

2016-01-01

Background Side effects prompt some patients to forego otherwise-beneficial therapies. This study explored which characteristics make side effects particularly aversive. Methods We used a psychometric approach, originating from research on risk perception, to identify the factors (or components) underlying side effect perceptions. Women (N=149) aged 40–74 were recruited from a patient registry to complete an online experiment. Participants were presented with hypothetical scenarios in which an effective and necessary medication conferred a small risk of a single side effect (e.g., nausea, dizziness). They rated a broad range of side effects on several characteristics (e.g., embarrassing, treatable). In addition, we collected four measures of aversiveness for each side effect: choosing to take the medication, willingness to pay to avoid the side effect (WTP), negative affective attitude associated with the side effect, and how each side effect ranks among others in terms of undesirability. A principle-components analysis (PCA) was used to identify the components underlying side effect perceptions. Then, for each aversiveness measure separately, regression analyses were used to determine which components predicted differences in aversiveness among the side effects. Results The PCA revealed four components underlying side effect perceptions: affective challenge (e.g., frightening), social challenge (e.g., disfiguring), physical challenge (e.g., painful), and familiarity (e.g., common). Side effects perceived as affectively and physically challenging elicited the highest levels of aversiveness across all four measures. Conclusions Understanding what side effect characteristics are most aversive may inform interventions to improve medical decisions and facilitate the translation of novel biomedical therapies into clinical practice. PMID:27216581

Motivational State and Reward Content Determine Choice Behavior under Risk in Mice

PubMed Central

Leblond, Mona; Fan, David; Brynildsen, Julia K.; Yin, Henry H.

2011-01-01

Risk is a ubiquitous feature of the environment for most organisms, who must often choose between a small and certain reward and a larger but less certain reward. To study choice behavior under risk in a genetically well characterized species, we trained mice (C57BL/6) on a discrete trial, concurrent-choice task in which they must choose between two levers. Pressing one lever (safe choice) is always followed by a small reward. Pressing the other lever (risky choice) is followed by a larger reward, but only on some of the trials. The overall payoff is the same on both levers. When mice were not food deprived, they were indifferent to risk, choosing both levers with equal probability regardless of the level of risk. In contrast, following food or water deprivation, mice earning 10% sucrose solution were risk-averse, though the addition of alcohol to the sucrose solution dose-dependently reduced risk aversion, even before the mice became intoxicated. Our results falsify the budget rule in optimal foraging theory often used to explain behavior under risk. Instead, they suggest that the overall demand or desired amount for a particular reward determines risk preference. Changes in motivational state or reward identity affect risk preference by changing demand. Any manipulation that increases the demand for a reward also increases risk aversion, by selectively increasing the frequency of safe choices without affecting frequency of risky choices. PMID:21966504

Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

PubMed

Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2016-12-01

When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A high-protein diet enhances satiety without conditioned taste aversion in the rat.

PubMed

Bensaïd, Ahmed; Tomé, Daniel; L'Heureux-Bourdon, Diane; Even, Patrick; Gietzen, Dorothy; Morens, Céline; Gaudichon, Claire; Larue-Achagiotis, Christiane; Fromentin, Gilles

2003-02-01

In order to determine the respective roles of conditioned food aversion, satiety and palatability, we studied behavioral responses to a 50% total milk protein diet, compared with those to a normal protein diet containing 14% total milk protein. Different paradigms were employed, including meal pattern analysis, two-choice testing, flavor testing, a behavioral satiety sequence (BSS) and taste reactivity. Our experiments showed that only behavioral and food intake parameters were disturbed during the first day when an animal ate the high-protein (P50) diet, and that most parameters returned to baseline values as soon as the second day of P50. Rats adapted to P50 did not acquire a conditioned taste aversion (CTA) but exhibited satiety, and a normal BSS. The initial reduction in high-protein diet intake appeared to result from the lower palatability of the food combined with the satiety effect of the high-protein diet and the delay required for metabolic adaptation to the higher protein level.

Effects of Infant Cries on Alcohol Consumption in College Males at Risk for Child Abuse.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Lisman, Stephen A.

1989-01-01

The study with 32 male college students supported previous studies depicting the infant cry as a stressful and aversive event, capable of eliciting increased drinking. Subjects who heard an infant cry consumed significantly more alcohol and reported feeling more aversion, arousal, and distress than subjects who listened to a smoke alarm.…

Priority setting in health care: disentangling risk aversion from inequality aversion.

PubMed

Echazu, Luciana; Nocetti, Diego

2013-06-01

In this paper, we introduce a tractable social welfare function that is rich enough to disentangle attitudes towards risk in health outcomes from attitudes towards health inequalities across individuals. Given this preference specification, we evaluate how the introduction of uncertainty over the severity of illness and over the effectiveness of treatments affects the optimal allocation of healthcare resources. We show that the way in which uncertainty affects the optimal allocation within our proposed specification may differ sharply from that in the standard expected utility framework. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Carryover effects associated with the single-trial passive avoidance learning task in the young chick.

PubMed

Crowe, Simon F; Hale, Matthew W

2002-09-01

The single-trial passive avoidance task is a useful procedure for examining learning and memory in the young chick. However, it has recently been suggested that discrepant results reported by different laboratories are due to differences in training procedure. The present study investigated a number of parameters surrounding the passive avoidance task, using day-old White Leghorn, Black Australorp cockerels. The results suggested that presentation of a water-dipped bead immediately after the aversive bead significantly altered retention levels. In addition, when the water-dipped bead was presented after the aversive bead, chicks failed to discriminate between beads for a period of 10 min following exposure to the aversant experience. A novel variant of the passive avoidance procedure, involving pretraining with a water-dipped red bead, training with an aversant-coated red bead, and testing with a dry red bead, was evaluated. A measure of avoidance was calculated using all three trials. It is suggested that the use of a single bead, measured both before and after the training experience and using both aversant- and water-trained controls, results in the most concise characterization of memory-related phenomena in the chick which is not contaminated by a carryover effect from the aversive training experience to the nonaversive bead.

Prospect theory reflects selective allocation of attention.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Schulte-Mecklenbeck, Michael; Murphy, Ryan O; Hertwig, Ralph

2018-02-01

There is a disconnect in the literature between analyses of risky choice based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) and work on predecisional information processing. One likely reason is that for expectation models (e.g., CPT), it is often assumed that people behaved only as if they conducted the computations leading to the predicted choice and that the models are thus mute regarding information processing. We suggest that key psychological constructs in CPT, such as loss aversion and outcome and probability sensitivity, can be interpreted in terms of attention allocation. In two experiments, we tested hypotheses about specific links between CPT parameters and attentional regularities. Experiment 1 used process tracing to monitor participants' predecisional attention allocation to outcome and probability information. As hypothesized, individual differences in CPT's loss-aversion, outcome-sensitivity, and probability-sensitivity parameters (estimated from participants' choices) were systematically associated with individual differences in attention allocation to outcome and probability information. For instance, loss aversion was associated with the relative attention allocated to loss and gain outcomes, and a more strongly curved weighting function was associated with less attention allocated to probabilities. Experiment 2 manipulated participants' attention to losses or gains, causing systematic differences in CPT's loss-aversion parameter. This result indicates that attention allocation can to some extent cause choice regularities that are captured by CPT. Our findings demonstrate an as-if model's capacity to reflect characteristics of information processing. We suggest that the observed CPT-attention links can be harnessed to inform the development of process models of risky choice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

State Dependent Valuation: The Effect of Deprivation on Risk Preferences

PubMed Central

Levy, Dino J.; Thavikulwat, Amalie C.; Glimcher, Paul W.

2013-01-01

The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures. PMID:23358126

State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

PubMed

Levy, Dino J; Thavikulwat, Amalie C; Glimcher, Paul W

2013-01-01

The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

Responsibility, guilt, and decision under risk.

PubMed

Mancini, Francesco; Gangemi, Amelia

2003-12-01

We hypothesize that individuals' choices (risk-seeking/risk-aversion) depend on moral values and, in particular, on how subjects evaluate themselves as guilty or as victims of a wrong rather than on the descriptions of the outcomes as given in the options and evaluated accordingly as gains or losses (framing effect). People who evaluate themselves as victims are expected to show a risk-seeking preference (context of innocence). People who evaluate themselves as guilty are expected to show a risk-averse preference (context of guilt). Responses of 232 participants to a decision problem were compared in four different conditions involving two-story formats (innocence/guilt) and two-question-options formats (gain/loss). Regardless of the format of the question options, the story format appears to be an important determinant of individuals' preferences.

Existence and Optimality Conditions for Risk-Averse PDE-Constrained Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kouri, Drew Philip; Surowiec, Thomas M.

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in virtually all engineering applications, and, for such problems, it is inadequate to simulate the underlying physics without quantifying the uncertainty in unknown or random inputs, boundary and initial conditions, and modeling assumptions. Here in this paper, we introduce a general framework for analyzing risk-averse optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we postulate conditions on the random variable objective function as well as the PDE solution that guarantee existence of minimizers. Furthermore, we derive optimality conditions and apply our results to the control of an environmental contaminant. Lastly, we introduce a new riskmore » measure, called the conditional entropic risk, that fuses desirable properties from both the conditional value-at-risk and the entropic risk measures.« less

Existence and Optimality Conditions for Risk-Averse PDE-Constrained Optimization

DOE PAGES

Kouri, Drew Philip; Surowiec, Thomas M.

2018-06-05

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in virtually all engineering applications, and, for such problems, it is inadequate to simulate the underlying physics without quantifying the uncertainty in unknown or random inputs, boundary and initial conditions, and modeling assumptions. Here in this paper, we introduce a general framework for analyzing risk-averse optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we postulate conditions on the random variable objective function as well as the PDE solution that guarantee existence of minimizers. Furthermore, we derive optimality conditions and apply our results to the control of an environmental contaminant. Lastly, we introduce a new riskmore » measure, called the conditional entropic risk, that fuses desirable properties from both the conditional value-at-risk and the entropic risk measures.« less

The neural basis of financial risk taking.

PubMed

Kuhnen, Camelia M; Knutson, Brian

2005-09-01

Investors systematically deviate from rationality when making financial decisions, yet the mechanisms responsible for these deviations have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI, we examined whether anticipatory neural activity would predict optimal and suboptimal choices in a financial decision-making task. We characterized two types of deviations from the optimal investment strategy of a rational risk-neutral agent as risk-seeking mistakes and risk-aversion mistakes. Nucleus accumbens activation preceded risky choices as well as risk-seeking mistakes, while anterior insula activation preceded riskless choices as well as risk-aversion mistakes. These findings suggest that distinct neural circuits linked to anticipatory affect promote different types of financial choices and indicate that excessive activation of these circuits may lead to investing mistakes. Thus, consideration of anticipatory neural mechanisms may add predictive power to the rational actor model of economic decision making.

Dine or dash? Turbulence inhibits blue crab navigation in attractive-aversive odor plumes by altering signal structure encoded by the olfactory pathway.

PubMed

Weissburg, Marc; Atkins, Lorin; Berkenkamp, Kimberly; Mankin, Danielle

2012-12-01

Blue crabs can distinguish and navigate to attractive (food) odors even when aversive odors (injured crab metabolites) are released nearby. Blue crabs in these conditions detect the aversive odor and avoid it, but find the attractive source with nearly the same success rate as when the attractive source is presented alone. Spatially and temporally distinct odor filaments appear to signal to foragers that the two odor sources are not co-located, and hence navigating to the attractive odor entails an acceptable risk of predation. However, environmentally produced turbulence suppresses tracking by homogenizing the two odors; blue crabs fail to track to the attractive source when the aversive source is present, even though turbulence does not substantially inhibit tracking to the attractive source alone. Removal of sensory input from aesthetascs on the antennules, but not chemosensors on the legs, rescues navigation to attractive-aversive dual plumes in turbulent conditions. These results suggest that mixing in the natural environment may amplify the effects of predators by suppressing tracking to food odors when aversive cues are present, and that the olfactory pathway mediates the response.

The relation between symptoms of bulimia nervosa and obsessive-compulsive disorder: a startle investigation.

PubMed

Altman, Sarah E; Campbell, Miranda L; Nelson, Brady D; Faust, Julianne P; Shankman, Stewart A

2013-11-01

Bulimia nervosa (BN) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) co-occur at greater rates than chance and may have shared mechanisms of dysfunction. One of these proposed mechanisms is a hyper-responsive aversive system as indicated by heightened startle response to aversive stimuli. The present study examined this hypothesis using 2 types of aversive stimuli: disorder specific (e.g., high-caloric food pictures for BN, contamination pictures for OCD) and nondisorder specific (e.g., knife). Temporal parameters of aversive responding were also examined by assessing startle response in anticipation of and following picture presentation. The sample consisted of 114 undergraduate women selected to have a broad range of BN and/or OCD symptomatology. OCD symptoms were associated with increased startle potentiation during the anticipation and presentation of contamination pictures, and BN symptoms were associated with increased startle potentiation during disorder-related contamination pictures (e.g., sink, toilet). BN symptoms were also associated with increased startle potentiation during and following the presentation of food pictures (though the former effect was only a trend). Additionally, the interaction of BN and OCD symptoms was associated with elevated startle responding during the presentation of contamination and threat stimuli. Overall, the present study provides evidence that BN and OCD symptoms are associated with heightened aversive responding to disorder-specific stimuli, and comorbid BN and OCD symptoms are associated with heightened aversive responding across disorder-specific and nonspecific aversive stimuli. Clinical and theoretical implications are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Do Different ADHD-Related Etiological Risks Involve Specific Neuropsychological Pathways? An Analysis of Mediation Processes by Inhibitory Control and Delay Aversion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pauli-Pott, Ursula; Dalir, Silke; Mingebach, Tanja; Roller, Alisa; Becker, Katja

2013-01-01

Background: Inhibitory control (IC) has been regarded as a neuropsychological basic deficit and as an endophenotype of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Implicated here are mediation processes between etiological factors and ADHD symptoms. We thus analyze whether and to what extent executive IC and delay aversion (DA; i.e.,…

The (Null) Effect of Affective Touch on Betrayal Aversion, Altruism, and Risk Taking

PubMed Central

Koppel, Lina; Andersson, David; Morrison, India; Västfjäll, Daniel; Tinghög, Gustav

2017-01-01

Pleasant touch is thought to increase the release of oxytocin. Oxytocin, in turn, has been extensively studied with regards to its effects on trust and prosocial behavior, but results remain inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of touch on economic decision making. Participants (n = 120) were stroked on their left arm using a soft brush (touch condition) or not at all (control condition; varied within subjects), while they performed a series of decision tasks assessing betrayal aversion (the Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task), altruism (donating money to a charitable organization), and risk taking (the Balloon Analog Risk Task). We found no significant effect of touch on any of the outcome measures, neither within nor between subjects. Furthermore, effects were not moderated by gender or attachment. However, attachment avoidance had a significant effect on altruism in that those who were high in avoidance donated less money. Our findings contribute to the understanding of affective touch—and, by extension, oxytocin—in social behavior, and decision making by showing that touch does not directly influence performance in tasks involving risk and prosocial decisions. Specifically, our work casts further doubt on the validity of oxytocin research in humans. PMID:29311867

The (Null) Effect of Affective Touch on Betrayal Aversion, Altruism, and Risk Taking.

PubMed

Koppel, Lina; Andersson, David; Morrison, India; Västfjäll, Daniel; Tinghög, Gustav

2017-01-01

Pleasant touch is thought to increase the release of oxytocin. Oxytocin, in turn, has been extensively studied with regards to its effects on trust and prosocial behavior, but results remain inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of touch on economic decision making. Participants ( n = 120) were stroked on their left arm using a soft brush (touch condition) or not at all (control condition; varied within subjects), while they performed a series of decision tasks assessing betrayal aversion (the Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task), altruism (donating money to a charitable organization), and risk taking (the Balloon Analog Risk Task). We found no significant effect of touch on any of the outcome measures, neither within nor between subjects. Furthermore, effects were not moderated by gender or attachment. However, attachment avoidance had a significant effect on altruism in that those who were high in avoidance donated less money. Our findings contribute to the understanding of affective touch-and, by extension, oxytocin-in social behavior, and decision making by showing that touch does not directly influence performance in tasks involving risk and prosocial decisions. Specifically, our work casts further doubt on the validity of oxytocin research in humans.

Individual Differences in Risk Preference Predict Neural Responses during Financial Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Engelmann, Jan B.; Tamir, Diana

2009-01-01

We investigated the neural correlates of subjective valuations during a task involving risky choices about lotteries. Because expected value was held constant across all lotteries, decisions were influenced by subjective preferences, which manifest behaviorally as risk-seeking or risk-averse attitudes. To isolate structures encoding risk preference during choice, we probed for areas showing increased activation as a function of selected risk-level. Such response patterns were obtained in anterior (ACC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), superior frontal gyrus, caudate nucleus, and substantia nigra. Behavioral results revealed the presence of risk-averse and risk-neutral individuals. In parallel, brain signals revealed modulation of activity by risk-attitude during choice. Correlations between risk-seeking attitudes and neural activity during risky choice were obtained in superior and inferior frontal gyri, medial and lateral orbitofrontal cortex, and parahippocampal gyrus, while correlations with risk-averse attitudes were found in the caudate. The dynamics of neural responses relevant to each stage of the task (decision, anticipation, outcome) were investigated via timeseries and conjunction analyses. Though the networks engaged in each of the task stages were mostly distinct, regions of ACC, PCC and caudate were consistently activated during each decision-making phase. These results demonstrate (1) that subjective assessments of risk, as well as individual attitudes toward risk, play a significant role in modulating activity within brain regions recruited during decision-making, and (2) that ACC, PCC and caudate are relevant during each phase of a decision-making task requiring subjective valuations, strengthening the role of these regions in self-referential subjective valuations during choice. PMID:19576868

Correlates of healthcare and financial decision making among older adults without dementia.

PubMed

Stewart, Christopher C; Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S; Bennett, David A; Boyle, Patricia A

2018-03-22

Healthcare and financial decision making among older persons has been previously associated with cognition, health and financial literacy, and risk aversion; however, the manner by which these resources support decision making remains unclear, as past studies have not systematically investigated the pathways linking these resources with decision making. In the current study, we use path analysis to examine the direct and indirect pathways linking age, education, cognition, literacy, and risk aversion with decision making. We also decomposed literacy into its subcomponents, conceptual knowledge and numeracy, in order to examine their associations with decision making. Participants were 937 community-based older adults without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project who completed a battery of cognitive tests and assessments of healthcare and financial decision making, health and financial literacy, and risk aversion. Age and education exerted effects on decision making, but nearly two thirds of their effects were indirect, working mostly through cognition and literacy. Cognition exerted a strong direct effect on decision making and a robust indirect effect working primarily through literacy. Literacy also exerted a powerful direct effect on decision making, as did its subcomponents, conceptual knowledge and numeracy. The direct effect of risk aversion was comparatively weak. In addition to cognition, health and financial literacy emerged as independent and primary correlates of healthcare and financial decision making. These findings suggest specific actions that might be taken to optimize healthcare and financial decision making and, by extension, improve health and well-being in advanced age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Evolution of social learning when high expected payoffs are associated with high risk of failure.

PubMed

Arbilly, Michal; Motro, Uzi; Feldman, Marcus W; Lotem, Arnon

2011-11-07

In an environment where the availability of resources sought by a forager varies greatly, individual foraging is likely to be associated with a high risk of failure. Foragers that learn where the best sources of food are located are likely to develop risk aversion, causing them to avoid the patches that are in fact the best; the result is sub-optimal behaviour. Yet, foragers living in a group may not only learn by themselves, but also by observing others. Using evolutionary agent-based computer simulations of a social foraging game, we show that in an environment where the most productive resources occur with the lowest probability, socially acquired information is strongly favoured over individual experience. While social learning is usually regarded as beneficial because it filters out maladaptive behaviours, the advantage of social learning in a risky environment stems from the fact that it allows risk aversion to be circumvented and the best food source to be revisited despite repeated failures. Our results demonstrate that the consequences of individual risk aversion may be better understood within a social context and suggest one possible explanation for the strong preference for social information over individual experience often observed in both humans and animals.

Evolution of social learning when high expected payoffs are associated with high risk of failure

PubMed Central

Arbilly, Michal; Motro, Uzi; Feldman, Marcus W.; Lotem, Arnon

2011-01-01

In an environment where the availability of resources sought by a forager varies greatly, individual foraging is likely to be associated with a high risk of failure. Foragers that learn where the best sources of food are located are likely to develop risk aversion, causing them to avoid the patches that are in fact the best; the result is sub-optimal behaviour. Yet, foragers living in a group may not only learn by themselves, but also by observing others. Using evolutionary agent-based computer simulations of a social foraging game, we show that in an environment where the most productive resources occur with the lowest probability, socially acquired information is strongly favoured over individual experience. While social learning is usually regarded as beneficial because it filters out maladaptive behaviours, the advantage of social learning in a risky environment stems from the fact that it allows risk aversion to be circumvented and the best food source to be revisited despite repeated failures. Our results demonstrate that the consequences of individual risk aversion may be better understood within a social context and suggest one possible explanation for the strong preference for social information over individual experience often observed in both humans and animals. PMID:21508013

Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

2017-08-01

Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Differential neurobiological effects of expert advice on risky choice in adolescents and adults.

PubMed

Engelmann, Jan B; Moore, Sara; Monica Capra, C; Berns, Gregory S

2012-06-01

We investigated behavioral and neurobiological mechanisms by which risk-averse advice, provided by an expert, affected risky decisions across three developmental groups [early adolescents (12-14 years), late adolescents (15-17 years), adults (18+ years)]. Using cumulative prospect theory, we modeled choice behavior during a risky-choice task. Results indicate that advice had a significantly greater impact on risky choice in both adolescent groups than in adults. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural correlates of this behavioral effect. Developmental effects on correlations between brain activity and valuation parameters were obtained in regions that can be classified into (i) cognitive control regions, such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and ventrolateral PFC; (ii) social cognition regions, such as posterior temporoparietal junction; and (iii) reward-related regions, such as ventromedial PFC (vmPFC) and ventral striatum. Within these regions, differential effects of advice on neural correlates of valuation were observed across development. Specifically, advice increased the correlation strength between brain activity and parameters reflective of safe choice options in adolescent DLPFC and decreased correlation strength between activity and parameters reflective of risky choice options in adult vmPFC. Taken together, results indicate that, across development, distinct brain systems involved in cognitive control and valuation mediate the risk-reducing effect of advice during decision making under risk via specific enhancements and reductions of the correlation strength between brain activity and valuation parameters.

Education, Risk and Ethics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papastephanou, Marianna

2006-01-01

While the notion of risk remains under-theorised in moral philosophy, risk aversion and moralist self-protection appear as dominant cultural tendencies saturating educational orientation and practice. Philosophy of education has responded to the educational emphasis on risk management by exposing the unavoidable and positive presence of risk in…

Farmers' Risk Preferences in Rural China: Measurements and Determinants.

PubMed

Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Xu, Xia; He, Chunyang

2017-06-30

This study measures farmers' risk attitudes in rural China using a survey instrument and a complementary experiment conducted in the field with the same sample of subjects. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we found that the average response of our sample is slightly risk averse. Farmers' exogenous factors (age, gender, and height) and self-reported happiness have a significant impact on farmers' willingness to take risks. The experiment results show that approximately 44% of farmers in the study area are risk averse. We compare farmers' self-reported measures of risk preferences derived from the survey instrument to preferences elicited through the experimental task. Results show that answers to the general risk attitude question in the survey can predict farmers' behaviors in the experiment to a statistically significant degree. This paper can contribute to the empirical literature on comparing local farmers' risk attitudes across different risk preference measurement methods in the developing world.

Better Demand Signal, Better Decisions? Evaluation of Big Data in a Licensed Remanufacturing Supply Chain with Environmental Risk Considerations.

PubMed

Niu, Baozhuang; Zou, Zongbao

2017-08-01

Big data ability helps obtain more accurate demand signal. However, is better demand signal always beneficial for the supply chain parties? To answer this question, we investigate a remanufacturing supply chain (RSC), where demand uncertainty is significant, and the value to reduce environmental risk is large. Specifically, we focus on a licensed RSC comprising an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a third-party remanufacturer (3PR). The latter pays a unit license fee to the former, and can be risk averse to the demand of remanufactured products. We show that the OEM and the risk-neutral 3PR always have incentives to improve their big data abilities to increase their profits. However, when the 3PR is risk averse, big data might hurt its profit: the value of big data is positive if its demand signal accuracy is sufficiently low. Interestingly, we find that while information sharing hurts the 3PR, it benefits the OEM as well as the supply chain. Thus, if costly information sharing is allowed, a win-win situation can be achieved. We also find that information sharing generates more valuation when the 3PR is risk averse than that when the 3PR is risk neutral. More importantly, we find that the 3PR's risk attitude and demand signal accuracy can significantly mitigate the negative environmental impact (measured by the amount of the waste): (1) the more risk neutral the 3PR is, the better the environment is; (2) the more accurate demand signal is, the better the environment is. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mindfulness-Based Training Attenuates Insula Response to an Aversive Interoceptive Challenge

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-08

are important for attentional control, emotional regulation and interoception. Inspiratory breathing load (IBL) is an experimental approach to...examine how an individual responds to an aversive stimulus. Military personnel are at increased risk for cognitive, emotional and physiological compromise...Pietrzak et al., 2009; Green et al., 2010). Recently, we have conducted a series of studies examining emotion and interoceptive processing in highly

Labor migration and risk aversion in less developed countries.

PubMed

Katz, E; Stark, O

1986-01-01

"In this paper we question the pioneering work of Todaro, which states that rural-to-urban labor migration in less developed countries (LDCs) is an individual response to a higher urban expected income. We demonstrate that rural-to-urban labor migration is perfectly rational even if urban expected income is lower than rural income. We achieve this under a set of fairly stringent conditions: an individual decision-making entity, a one-period planning horizon, and global risk aversion. We obtain the result that a small chance of reaping a high reward is sufficient to trigger rural-to-urban labor migration." excerpt

A lower bound to the social cost of CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.; Botzen, W. J. W.

2014-04-01

Many studies have estimated the social cost of carbon (SCC). We critically evaluate SCC estimates, focusing on omitted cost categories, discounting, uncertainties about damage costs and risk aversion. This allows for the calculation of a lower bound to the SCC. Dominant SCC values turn out to be gross underestimates, notably, but not only, for a low discount rate. The validity of this lower bound is supported by a precautionary approach to reflect risk aversion against extreme climate change. The results justify a more stringent climate policy than is suggested by most influential past studies.

The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices Without Trade-Offs

PubMed Central

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2010-01-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, we generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (i) Allais' paradox, (ii) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (iii) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (lottery tickets), (iv) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (buying insurance), (v) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (vi) certainty effect, (vii) possibility effect, and (viii) intransitivities. We test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared to previously proposed heuristics and three modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. PMID:16637767

Aversion to Ambiguity Regarding Medical Tests and Treatments: Measurement, Prevalence, and Relationship to Sociodemographic Factors

PubMed Central

HAN, PAUL K. J.; REEVE, BRYCE B.; MOSER, RICHARD P.; KLEIN, WILLIAM M. P.

2014-01-01

Aversion to “ambiguity”—uncertainty about the reliability, credibility, or adequacy of risk-related information—is an important problem that may influence judgments and decisions about medical interventions. Ambiguity aversion (AA) varies among individuals, however, and has been understudied in the health domain. To explore this phenomenon further, we developed a new theory-based measure of aversion to ambiguity regarding medical tests and treatments, and examined the prevalence and association of AA with sociodemographic factors. The “AA-Med” scale was developed using a large survey sample of the U.S. public (n = 4,398), and scale psychometric properties and the population distribution of AA were evaluated. The scale demonstrated acceptable reliability (α = .73) and validity as ascertained by association with respondents’ interest in a hypothetical ambiguous cancer screening test. Ambiguity aversion (AA) was associated with older age, non-White race, lower education and income, and female sex. The AA-Med scale is a promising new measure, and AA is associated with several sociodemographic factors. We discuss implications of these findings and potential applications of the scale for future research. PMID:19731127

Benchmark study on glyphosate-resistant cropping systems in the United States. Part 6: Timeliness of economic decision-making in implementing weed resistance management strategies.

PubMed

Weirich, Jason W; Shaw, David R; Coble, Keith H; Owen, Micheal D K; Dixon, Philip M; Weller, Stephen C; Young, Bryan G; Wilson, Robert G; Jordan, David L

2011-07-01

The introduction of glyphosate-resistant (GR) crops in the late 1990s made weed control in maize, cotton and soybean simple. With the rapid adoption of GR crops, many growers began to rely solely on glyphosate for weed control. This eventually led to the evolution of GR weeds. Growers are often reluctant to adopt a weed resistance best management practice (BMP) because of the added cost of additional herbicides to weed control programs which would reduce short-term revenue. This study was designed to evaluate when a grower that is risk neutral (profit maximizing) or risk averse should adopt a weed resistance BMP. Whether a grower is risk neutral or risk averse, the optimal decision would be to adopt a weed resistance BMP when the expected loss in revenue is greater than 30% and the probability of resistance evolution is 0.1 or greater. However, if the probability of developing resistance increases to 0.3, then the best decision would be to adopt a weed resistance BMP when the expected loss is 10% or greater. Given the scenarios analyzed, risk-neutral or risk-averse growers should implement a weed resistance BMP with confidence that they have made the right decision economically and avoided the risk of lost revenue from resistance. If the grower wants to continue to see the same level of return, adoption of BMP is required. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Memory suppression trades prolonged fear and sleep-dependent fear plasticity for the avoidance of current fear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuriyama, Kenichi; Honma, Motoyasu; Yoshiike, Takuya; Kim, Yoshiharu

2013-07-01

Sleep deprivation immediately following an aversive event reduces fear by preventing memory consolidation during homeostatic sleep. This suggests that acute insomnia might act prophylactically against the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) even though it is also a possible risk factor for PTSD. We examined total sleep deprivation and memory suppression to evaluate the effects of these interventions on subsequent aversive memory formation and fear conditioning. Active suppression of aversive memory impaired retention of event memory. However, although the remembered fear was more reduced in sleep-deprived than sleep-control subjects, suppressed fear increased, and seemed to abandon the sleep-dependent plasticity of fear. Active memory suppression, which provides a psychological model for Freud's ego defense mechanism, enhances fear and casts doubt on the potential of acute insomnia as a prophylactic measure against PTSD. Our findings bring into question the role of sleep in aversive-memory consolidation in clinical PTSD pathophysiology.

Risk aversion and uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: the expected-utility, moment-generating function approach.

PubMed

Elbasha, Elamin H

2005-05-01

The availability of patient-level data from clinical trials has spurred a lot of interest in developing methods for quantifying and presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Although the majority has focused on developing methods for using sample data to estimate a confidence interval for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a small strand of the literature has emphasized the importance of incorporating risk preferences and the trade-off between the mean and the variance of returns to investment in health and medicine (mean-variance analysis). This paper shows how the exponential utility-moment-generating function approach is a natural extension to this branch of the literature for modelling choices from healthcare interventions with uncertain costs and effects. The paper assumes an exponential utility function, which implies constant absolute risk aversion, and is based on the fact that the expected value of this function results in a convenient expression that depends only on the moment-generating function of the random variables. The mean-variance approach is shown to be a special case of this more general framework. The paper characterizes the solution to the resource allocation problem using standard optimization techniques and derives the summary measure researchers need to estimate for each programme, when the assumption of risk neutrality does not hold, and compares it to the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The importance of choosing the correct distribution of costs and effects and the issues related to estimation of the parameters of the distribution are also discussed. An empirical example to illustrate the methods and concepts is provided. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Source preference and ambiguity aversion: models and evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging experiments.

PubMed

Chew, Soo Hong; Li, King King; Chark, Robin; Zhong, Songfa

2008-01-01

This experimental economics study using brain imaging techniques investigates the risk-ambiguity distinction in relation to the source preference hypothesis (Fox & Tversky, 1995) in which identically distributed risks arising from different sources of uncertainty may engender distinct preferences for the same decision maker, contrary to classical economic thinking. The use of brain imaging enables sharper testing of the implications of different models of decision-making including Chew and Sagi's (2008) axiomatization of source preference. Using fMRI, brain activations were observed when subjects make 48 sequential binary choices among even-chance lotteries based on whether the trailing digits of a number of stock prices at market closing would be odd or even. Subsequently, subjects rate familiarity of the stock symbols. When contrasting brain activation from more familiar sources with those from less familiar ones, regions appearing to be more active include the putamen, medial frontal cortex, and superior temporal gyrus. ROI analysis showed that the activation patterns in the familiar-unfamiliar and unfamiliar-familiar contrasts are similar to those in the risk-ambiguity and ambiguity-risk contrasts reported by Hsu et al. (2005). This supports the conjecture that the risk-ambiguity distinction can be subsumed by the source preference hypothesis. Our odd-even design has the advantage of inducing the same "unambiguous" probability of half for each subject in each binary comparison. Our finding supports the implications of the Chew-Sagi model and rejects models based on global probabilistic sophistication, including rank-dependent models derived from non-additive probabilities, e.g., Choquet expected utility and cumulative prospect theory, as well as those based on multiple priors, e.g., alpha-maxmin. The finding in Hsu et al. (2005) that orbitofrontal cortex lesion patients display neither ambiguity aversion nor risk aversion offers further support to the Chew-Sagi model. Our finding also supports the Levy et al. (2007) contention of a single valuation system encompassing risk and ambiguity aversion. This is the first neuroimaging study of the source preference hypothesis using a design which can discriminate among decision models ranging from risk-based ones to those relying on multiple priors.

Communication of uncertainty regarding individualized cancer risk estimates: effects and influential factors.

PubMed

Han, Paul K J; Klein, William M P; Lehman, Tom; Killam, Bill; Massett, Holly; Freedman, Andrew N

2011-01-01

To examine the effects of communicating uncertainty regarding individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates and to identify factors that influence these effects. Two Web-based experiments were conducted, in which adults aged 40 years and older were provided with hypothetical individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates differing in the extent and representation of expressed uncertainty. The uncertainty consisted of imprecision (otherwise known as "ambiguity") of the risk estimates and was communicated using different representations of confidence intervals. Experiment 1 (n = 240) tested the effects of ambiguity (confidence interval v. point estimate) and representational format (textual v. visual) on cancer risk perceptions and worry. Potential effect modifiers, including personality type (optimism), numeracy, and the information's perceived credibility, were examined, along with the influence of communicating uncertainty on responses to comparative risk information. Experiment 2 (n = 135) tested enhanced representations of ambiguity that incorporated supplemental textual and visual depictions. Communicating uncertainty led to heightened cancer-related worry in participants, exemplifying the phenomenon of "ambiguity aversion." This effect was moderated by representational format and dispositional optimism; textual (v. visual) format and low (v. high) optimism were associated with greater ambiguity aversion. However, when enhanced representations were used to communicate uncertainty, textual and visual formats showed similar effects. Both the communication of uncertainty and use of the visual format diminished the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. The communication of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates has complex effects, which include heightening cancer-related worry-consistent with ambiguity aversion-and diminishing the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. These responses are influenced by representational format and personality type, and the influence of format appears to be modifiable and content dependent.

Impact of risk aversion and disease outbreak characteristics on the incentives of producers as a group to participate in animal disease insurance-A simulation.

PubMed

Niemi, Jarkko K; Heikkilä, Jaakko

2011-06-01

The participation of agricultural producers in financing losses caused by livestock epidemics has been debated in many countries. One of the issues raised is how reluctant producers are to participate voluntarily in the financing of disease losses before an outbreak occurs. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether disease losses should be financed through pre- or post-outbreak premiums or their combination. A Monte Carlo simulation was employed to illustrate the costs of financing two diseases of different profiles. The profiles differed in the probability in which the damage occurs and in the average damage per event. Three hypothetical financing schemes were compared based on their ability to reduce utility losses in the case of risk-neutral and risk-averse producer groups. The schemes were examined in a dynamic setting where premiums depended on the compensation history of the sector. If producers choose the preferred financing scheme based on utility losses, results suggest that the timing of the premiums, the transaction costs of the scheme, the degree of risk aversion of the producer, and the level and the volatility of premiums affect the choice of the financing scheme. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is aversive learning a marker of risk for anxiety disorders in children?

PubMed Central

Craske, Michelle G.; Waters, Allison M.; Bergman, R. Lindsey; Naliboff, Bruce; Lipp, Ottmar V.; Negoro, Hideki; Ornitz, Edward M.

2016-01-01

Aversive conditioning and extinction were evaluated in children with anxiety disorders (n = 23), at-risk for anxiety disorders (n = 15), and controls (n = 11). Participants underwent 16 trials of discriminative conditioning of two geometric figures, with (CS+) or without (CS−) an aversive tone (US), followed by 8 extinction trials (4 CS+, 4 CS−), and 8 extinction re-test trials averaging 2 weeks later. Skin conductance responses and verbal ratings of valence and arousal to the CS+/CS− stimuli were measured. Anxiety disordered children showed larger anticipatory and unconditional skin conductance responses across conditioning, and larger orienting and anticipatory skin conductance responses across extinction and extinction re-test, all to the CS+ and CS−, relative to controls. At-risk children showed larger unconditional responses during conditioning, larger orienting responses during the first block of extinction, and larger anticipatory responses during extinction re-test, all to the CS+ and CS−, relative to controls. Also, anxiety disordered children rated the CS+ as more unpleasant than the other groups. Elevated skin conductance responses to signals of threat (CS+) and signals of safety (CS−; CS+ during extinction) are discussed as features of manifestation of and risk for anxiety in children, compared to the specificity of valence judgments to the manifestation of anxiety. PMID:18539262

Risk-dependent reward value signal in human prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Tobler, Philippe N.; Christopoulos, George I.; O'Doherty, John P.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Schultz, Wolfram

2009-01-01

When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the expected value and risk of each option, and choose the one with the higher utility. Expected value increases the expected utility of an option for all individuals. Risk increases the utility of an option for risk-seeking individuals, but decreases it for risk averse individuals. In 2 separate experiments, one involving imperative (no-choice), the other choice situations, we investigated how predicted risk and expected value aggregate into a common reward signal in the human brain. Blood oxygen level dependent responses in lateral regions of the prefrontal cortex increased monotonically with increasing reward value in the absence of risk in both experiments. Risk enhanced these responses in risk-seeking participants, but reduced them in risk-averse participants. The aggregate value and risk responses in lateral prefrontal cortex contrasted with pure value signals independent of risk in the striatum. These results demonstrate an aggregate risk and value signal in the prefrontal cortex that would be compatible with basic assumptions underlying the mean-variance approach to utility. PMID:19369207

The functional and structural neural basis of individual differences in loss aversion.

PubMed

Canessa, Nicola; Crespi, Chiara; Motterlini, Matteo; Baud-Bovy, Gabriel; Chierchia, Gabriele; Pantaleo, Giuseppe; Tettamanti, Marco; Cappa, Stefano F

2013-09-04

Decision making under risk entails the anticipation of prospective outcomes, typically leading to the greater sensitivity to losses than gains known as loss aversion. Previous studies on the neural bases of choice-outcome anticipation and loss aversion provided inconsistent results, showing either bidirectional mesolimbic responses of activation for gains and deactivation for losses, or a specific amygdala involvement in processing losses. Here we focused on loss aversion with the aim to address interindividual differences in the neural bases of choice-outcome anticipation. Fifty-six healthy human participants accepted or rejected 104 mixed gambles offering equal (50%) chances of gaining or losing different amounts of money while their brain activity was measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We report both bidirectional and gain/loss-specific responses while evaluating risky gambles, with amygdala and posterior insula specifically tracking the magnitude of potential losses. At the individual level, loss aversion was reflected both in limbic fMRI responses and in gray matter volume in a structural amygdala-thalamus-striatum network, in which the volume of the "output" centromedial amygdala nuclei mediating avoidance behavior was negatively correlated with monetary performance. We conclude that outcome anticipation and ensuing loss aversion involve multiple neural systems, showing functional and structural individual variability directly related to the actual financial outcomes of choices. By supporting the simultaneous involvement of both appetitive and aversive processing in economic decision making, these results contribute to the interpretation of existing inconsistencies on the neural bases of anticipating choice outcomes.

Understanding clinical and non-clinical decisions under uncertainty: a scenario-based survey.

PubMed

Simianu, Vlad V; Grounds, Margaret A; Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E; Ehlers, Anne P; Agrawal, Nidhi; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Flaxman, Abraham D; Flum, David R

2016-12-01

Prospect theory suggests that when faced with an uncertain outcome, people display loss aversion by preferring to risk a greater loss rather than incurring certain, lesser cost. Providing probability information improves decision making towards the economically optimal choice in these situations. Clinicians frequently make decisions when the outcome is uncertain, and loss aversion may influence choices. This study explores the extent to which prospect theory, loss aversion, and probability information in a non-clinical domain explains clinical decision making under uncertainty. Four hundred sixty two participants (n = 117 non-medical undergraduates, n = 113 medical students, n = 117 resident trainees, and n = 115 medical/surgical faculty) completed a three-part online task. First, participants completed an iced-road salting task using temperature forecasts with or without explicit probability information. Second, participants chose between less or more risk-averse ("defensive medicine") decisions in standardized scenarios. Last, participants chose between recommending therapy with certain outcomes or risking additional years gained or lost. In the road salting task, the mean expected value for decisions made by clinicians was better than for non-clinicians(-$1,022 vs -$1,061; <0.001). Probability information improved decision making for all participants, but non-clinicians improved more (mean improvement of $64 versus $33; p = 0.027). Mean defensive decisions decreased across training level (medical students 2.1 ± 0.9, residents 1.6 ± 0.8, faculty1.6 ± 1.1; p-trend < 0.001) and prospect-theory-concordant decisions increased (25.4%, 33.9%, and 40.7%;p-trend = 0.016). There was no relationship identified between road salting choices with defensive medicine and prospect-theory-concordant decisions. All participants made more economically-rational decisions when provided explicit probability information in a non-clinical domain. However, choices in the non-clinical domain were not related to prospect-theory concordant decision making and risk aversion tendencies in the clinical domain. Recognizing this discordance may be important when applying prospect theory to interventions aimed at improving clinical care.

Higher-order risk preferences in social settings.

PubMed

Heinrich, Timo; Mayrhofer, Thomas

2018-01-01

We study prudence and temperance (next to risk aversion) in social settings. Previous experimental studies have shown that these higher-order risk preferences affect the choices of individuals deciding privately on lotteries that only affect their own payoff. Yet, many risky and financially relevant decisions are made in the social settings of households or organizations. We elicit higher-order risk preferences of individuals and systematically vary how an individual's decision is made (alone or while communicating with a partner) and who is affected by the decision (only the individual or the partner as well). In doing so, we can isolate the effects of other-regarding concerns and communication on choices. Our results reveal that the majority of choices are risk averse, prudent, and temperate across social settings. We also observe that individuals are influenced significantly by the preferences of a partner when they are able to communicate and choices are payoff-relevant for both of them.

In Sickness but Not in Wealth: Field Evidence on Patients' Risk Preferences in Financial and Health Domains.

PubMed

Galizzi, Matteo M; Miraldo, Marisa; Stavropoulou, Charitini

2016-05-01

We present results from a hypothetical framed field experiment assessing whether risk preferences significantly differ across the health and financial domains when they are elicited through the same multiple price list paired-lottery method. We consider a sample of 300 patients attending outpatient clinics in a university hospital in Athens during the Greek financial crisis. Risk preferences in finance were elicited using paired-lottery questions with hypothetical payments. The questions were adapted to the health domain by framing the lotteries as risky treatments in hypothetical health care scenarios. Using maximum likelihood methods, we estimated the degree of risk aversion, allowing for the estimates to be dependent on domain and individual characteristics. The subjects in our sample, who were exposed to both health and financial distress, tended to be less risk averse in the financial domain than in the health domain. © The Author(s) 2016.

Germination sensitivities to water potential among co-existing C3 and C4 grasses of cool semi-arid prairie grasslands.

PubMed

Mollard, F P O; Naeth, M A

2015-03-01

An untested theory states that C4 grass seeds could germinate under lower water potentials (Ψ) than C3 grass seeds. We used hydrotime modelling to study seed water relations of C4 and C3 Canadian prairie grasses to address Ψ divergent sensitivities and germination strategies along a risk-spreading continuum of responses to limited water. C4 grasses were Bouteloua gracilis, Calamovilfa longifolia and Schizachyrium scoparium; C3 grasses were Bromus carinatus, Elymus trachycaulus, Festuca hallii and Koeleria macrantha. Hydrotime parameters were obtained after incubation of non-dormant seeds under different Ψ PEG 6000 solutions. A t-test between C3 and C4 grasses did not find statistical differences in population mean base Ψ (Ψb (50)). We found idiosyncratic responses of C4 grasses along the risk-spreading continuum. B. gracilis showed a risk-taker strategy of a species able to quickly germinate in a dry soil due to its low Ψb (50) and hydrotime (θH ). The high Ψb (50) of S. scoparium indicates it follows the risk-averse strategy so it can only germinate in wet soils. C. longifolia showed an intermediate strategy: the lowest Ψb (50) yet the highest θH . K. macrantha, a C3 grass which thrives in dry habitats, had the highest Ψb (50), suggesting a risk-averse strategy for a C3 species. Other C3 species showed intermediate germination patterns in response to Ψ relative to C4 species. Our results indicate that grasses display germination sensitivities to Ψ across the risk-spreading continuum of responses. Thus seed water relations may be poor predictors to explain differential recruitment and distribution of C3 and C4 grasses in the Canadian prairies. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Risk and Adventure Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nichols, Geoff

2002-01-01

In adventure education, risk is important to achieving program objectives. An increased concern with legal liability and the concentration of media attention on negative outcomes have contributed to an increased social aversion to risk. Adventure education must establish that risk leads to personal growth and can be managed constructively in the…

[Risk-taking in adolescence: A neuroeconomics approach].

PubMed

Barbalat, G; Domenech, P; Vernet, M; Fourneret, P

2010-04-01

Risk-taking behaviors represent the main cause of morbi-mortality in adolescence. Here, we analyze their neural correlates, based on a neuroeconomics approach. This approach postulates that risk-taking behaviors result from multiple decision-making biases that impair the selection of the most appropriate action among alternatives based on their subjective evaluation. Specifically, we investigate three important domains in value-based decision-making: risk aversion, loss aversion and intertemporal choice. First, when people have to make a decision between two rewarding options, they will usually prefer the more certain, even possibly lower, option - a phenomenon called "risk aversion". Yet adolescent people have been found to be less averse to risk than adults. This observation was linked to hypoactivation in (1) the anterior insula, involved in negative emotion such as fear and disgust and (2) the anterior cingular and the posterior ventromedial prefrontal cortices, involved in the monitoring of conflict and error detection. Second, people are generally described as being more sensitive to the possibility of losing objects than to that of gaining the same objects - "loss aversion". Here, we suggest that adolescents may be less averse to losses than adults when estimating the prospects of gaining and losing objects. Indeed, adolescent people have been found to be more affected by reward (e.g. euphoria or social integration consecutive to drug absorption) and less affected by punishment (e.g. malaise after drug consumption) than adults. Whereas the former process is subserved by hyperactivations in regions involved in reward evaluation such as the nucleus accumbens, the latter has been proposed to be subserved by hypoactivations in regions involved in negative emotions such as the amygdala or the insular cortex. This lower sensitivity to losses compared to gains in adolescents could be another important mechanism underlying risk-taking behaviors. A third dimension of adolescents' decision-making biases is temporality. It has been shown that adolescents favor immediate over delayed prospects, reflecting how future consequences of their decisions are heavily discounted. For example, adolescents can fail in projecting the future benefits of having safe sex - and thereby avoiding the risk of sexually transmitted disease or pregnancy - being more interested in the immediate reward of having romantic uninterrupted sexual intercourse. This impairment in inhibiting the choice of the early alternative could be related to the hypofunctionality of the lateral prefrontal cortex. Importantly, these three biases in the evaluation of decisions by adolescents may be related to the maturation of two neuronal systems. On the one hand, the early reorganization of dopaminergic neurons in the motivational system, due to the brutal secretion of sex hormones (mostly estrogens, testosterone and oxytocin) at the beginning of puberty, impels adolescents toward thrill seeking. On the other hand, the slow maturation of the cognitive control system, mostly exerted by the prefrontal cortex, implies that these impulses cannot be appropriately regulated. Two important neurodevelopmental mechanisms are thought to play a key role in the genesis of risk-taking behaviors in adolescence: the brutal secretion of sex hormones at the beginning of puberty and the delayed maturation of cognitive control. As such, these behaviors can be considered as inevitable, even if other factors, like sex, heredity and precariousness, can enhance their frequency. The implications of these conclusions for the prevention of risk-taking behaviors in adolescence are discussed. 2009 L'Encéphale, Paris. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Economic Constraints on Taste Formation and the True Cost of Healthy Eating

PubMed Central

Daniel, Caitlin

2015-01-01

This paper shows how an interaction between economic constraints and children’s taste preferences shapes low-income families’ food decisions. According to studies of eating behavior, children often refuse unfamiliar foods 8 to 15 times before accepting them. Using 80 interviews and 41 grocery-shopping observations with 73 primary caregivers in the Boston area in 2013–2015, I find that many low-income respondents minimize the risk of food waste by purchasing what their children like—often calorie-dense, nutrient-poor foods. High-income study participants, who have greater resources to withstand the cost of uneaten food, are more likely to repeatedly introduce foods that their children initially refuse. Several conditions moderate the relationship between children’s taste aversion and respondents’ risk aversion, including household-level food preferences, respondents’ conceptions of adult authority, and children’s experiences outside of the home. Low-income participants’ risk aversion may affect children’s taste acquisition and eating habits, with implications for socioeconomic disparities in diet quality. This paper proposes that the cost of providing children a healthy diet may include the possible cost of foods that children waste as they acquire new tastes. PMID:26650928

Economic constraints on taste formation and the true cost of healthy eating.

PubMed

Daniel, Caitlin

2016-01-01

This article shows how an interaction between economic constraints and children's taste preferences shapes low-income families' food decisions. According to studies of eating behavior, children often refuse unfamiliar foods 8 to 15 times before accepting them. Using 80 interviews and 41 grocery-shopping observations with 73 primary caregivers in the Boston area in 2013-2015, I find that many low-income respondents minimize the risk of food waste by purchasing what their children like--often calorie-dense, nutrient-poor foods. High-income study participants, who have greater resources to withstand the cost of uneaten food, are more likely to repeatedly introduce foods that their children initially refuse. Several conditions moderate the relationship between children's taste aversion and respondents' risk aversion, including household-level food preferences, respondents' conceptions of adult authority, and children's experiences outside of the home. Low-income participants' risk aversion may affect children's taste acquisition and eating habits, with implications for socioeconomic disparities in diet quality. This article proposes that the cost of providing children a healthy diet may include the possible cost of foods that children waste as they acquire new tastes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling ecohydrological dynamics of smallholder strategies for food production in dryland agricultural systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gower, Drew B.; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; McCord, Paul F.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Evans, Tom P.

2016-11-01

In dryland environments, characterized by low and frequently variable rainfall, smallholder farmers must take crop water sensitivity into account along with other characteristics like seed availability and market price when deciding what to plant. In this paper we use the results of surveys conducted among smallholders located near Mount Kenya to identify clusters of farmers devoting different fractions of their land to subsistence and market crops. Additionally, we explore the tradeoffs between water-insensitive but low-value subsistence crops and a water-sensitive but high-value market crop using a numerical model that simulates soil moisture dynamics and crop production over multiple growing seasons. The cluster analysis shows that most farmers prefer to plant either only subsistence crops or only market crops, with a minority choosing to plant substantial fractions of both. The model output suggests that the value a farmer places on a successful growing season, a measure of risk aversion, plays a large role in whether the farmer chooses a subsistence or market crop strategy. Furthermore, access to irrigation, makes market crops more appealing, even to very risk-averse farmers. We then conclude that the observed clustering may result from different levels of risk aversion and access to irrigation.

Shared risk aversion in spontaneous and induced abortion.

PubMed

Catalano, Ralph; Bruckner, Tim A; Karasek, Deborah; Adler, Nancy E; Mortensen, Laust H

2016-05-01

Does the incidence of spontaneous abortion correlate positively over conception cohorts with the incidence of non-clinically indicated induced abortion as predicted by shared risk aversion? We find that the number of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions correlates in conception cohorts, suggesting that risk aversion affects both the conscious and non-conscious mechanisms that control parturition. Much literature speculates that natural selection conserved risk aversion because the trait enhanced Darwinian fitness. Risk aversion, moreover, supposedly influences all decisions including those that individuals can and cannot report making. We argue that these circumstances, if real, would manifest in conscious and non-conscious decisions to invest in prospective offspring, and therefore affect incidence of induced and spontaneous abortion over time. Using data from Denmark, we test the hypothesis that monthly conception cohorts yielding unexpectedly many non-clinically indicated induced abortions also yield unexpectedly many spontaneous abortions. The 180 month test period (January 1995 through December 2009), yielded 1 351 800 gestations including 156 780 spontaneous as well as 233 280 induced abortions 9100 of which were clinically indicated. We use Box-Jenkins transfer functions to adjust the incidence of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions for autocorrelation (including seasonality), cohort size, and fetal as well as gestational anomalies over the 180-month test period. We use cross-correlation to test our hypothesized association. We find a positive association between spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions. This suggests, consistent with our theory, that mothers of conception cohorts that yielded more spontaneous abortions than expected opted more frequently than expected for non-clinically indicated induced abortion. Limitations of our work include that even the world's best registration system will not capture all spontaneous abortions and that results may not generalize beyond Denmark. Our findings imply that abortion, intentional or 'spontaneous,' follows from a woman's estimate, made consciously or otherwise, of the costs and benefits of extending gestation given characteristics of the prospective offspring, likely environmental circumstances at birth, and maternal resources. The Robert Wood Johnson Health and Society Scholars Program funded the research described in this manuscript. None of the authors has any conflict of interest to declare. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Divorce as Risky Behavior

PubMed Central

LIGHT, AUDREY; AHN, TAEHYUN

2010-01-01

Given that divorce often represents a high-stakes income gamble, we ask how individual levels of risk tolerance affect the decision to divorce. We extend the orthodox divorce model by assuming that individuals are risk averse, that marriage is risky, and that divorce is even riskier. The model predicts that conditional on the expected gains to marriage and divorce, the probability of divorce increases with relative risk tolerance because risk averse individuals require compensation for the additional risk that is inherent in divorce. To implement the model empirically, we use data for first-married women and men from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate a probit model of divorce in which a measure of risk tolerance is among the covariates. The estimates reveal that a 1-point increase in risk tolerance raises the predicted probability of divorce by 4.3% for a representative man and by 11.4% for a representative woman. These findings are consistent with the notion that divorce entails a greater income gamble for women than for men. PMID:21308563

Divorce as risky behavior.

PubMed

Light, Audrey; Ahn, Taehyun

2010-11-01

Given that divorce often represents a high-stakes income gamble, we ask how individual levels of risk tolerance affect the decision to divorce. We extend the orthodox divorce model by assuming that individuals are risk averse, that marriage is risky, and that divorce is even riskier. The model predicts that conditional on the expected gains to marriage and divorce, the probability of divorce increases with relative risk tolerance because risk averse individuals require compensation for the additional risk that is inherent in divorce. To implement the model empirically, we use data for first-married women and men from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate a probit model of divorce in which a measure of risk tolerance is among the covariates. The estimates reveal that a 1-point increase in risk tolerance raises the predicted probability of divorce by 4.3% for a representative man and by 11.4% for a representative woman. These findings are consistent with the notion that divorce entails a greater income gamble for women than for men.

Reciprocal Relationships Between the Immune and Central Nervous System

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-01

grovth factor B2, corticoster ", oids, IFN-y, conditioned taste aversion, schedule-cont rolled I Ibehavior, prostaglandin ., cPA yr s P oq/c.1oý w 19...on conditioned taste ’- & aversion, but they both inhibit the reductions in social exploration and scheddle-controlled behavior of rats injected...secreted by the pituitary gland. These findings probably at least partially explain why elderly persons cannot develop adequate fevers and are at risk

Prospect theory for online financial trading.

PubMed

Liu, Yang-Yu; Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Martino, Mauro; Altshuler, Yaniv

2014-01-01

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are typically risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, known as the "reflection effect". People are much more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same magnitude, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of the previous studies have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon, which are essential in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the impact of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon. Moreover, we introduce three novel behavioral metrics to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behavior.

Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management

Treesearch

Michael S. Hand; Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2015-01-01

Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to...

Blunted neural response to anticipation, effort and consummation of reward and aversion in adolescents with depression symptomatology.

PubMed

Rzepa, Ewelina; Fisk, Jennifer; McCabe, Ciara

2017-03-01

Neural reward function has been proposed as a possible biomarker for depression. However, how the neural response to reward and aversion might differ in young adolescents with current symptoms of depression is as yet unclear. Thirty-three adolescents were recruited, 17 scoring low on the Mood and Feelings Questionnaire (low risk group) and 16 scoring high (high risk group). Our functional magnetic resonance imaging task measured; anticipation (pleasant/unpleasant cue), effort (achieve a pleasant taste or avoid an unpleasant taste) and consummation (pleasant/unpleasant tastes) in regions of interest; ventral medial prefrontal cortex, pregenual cingulate cortex, the insula and ventral striatum. We also examined whole brain group differences. In the regions of interest analysis we found reduced activity in the high risk group in the pregenual cingulate cortex during anticipation and reduced pregenual cingulate cortex and ventral medial prefrontal cortex during effort and consummation. In the whole brain analysis we also found reduced activity in the high risk group in the prefrontal cortex and the precuneus during anticipation. We found reduced activity in the hippocampus during the effort phase and in the anterior cingulate/frontal pole during consummation in the high risk group. Increased anhedonia measures correlated with decreased pregenual cingulate cortex activity during consummation in the high risk group only. Our results are the first to show that adolescents with depression symptoms have blunted neural responses during the anticipation, effort and consummation of rewarding and aversive stimuli. This study suggests that interventions in young people at risk of depression, that can reverse blunted responses, might be beneficial as preventative strategies.

Neural markers of loss aversion in resting-state brain activity.

PubMed

Canessa, Nicola; Crespi, Chiara; Baud-Bovy, Gabriel; Dodich, Alessandra; Falini, Andrea; Antonellis, Giulia; Cappa, Stefano F

2017-02-01

Neural responses in striatal, limbic and somatosensory brain regions track individual differences in loss aversion, i.e. the higher sensitivity to potential losses compared with equivalent gains in decision-making under risk. The engagement of structures involved in the processing of aversive stimuli and experiences raises a further question, i.e. whether the tendency to avoid losses rather than acquire gains represents a transient fearful overreaction elicited by choice-related information, or rather a stable component of one's own preference function, reflecting a specific pattern of neural activity. We tested the latter hypothesis by assessing in 57 healthy human subjects whether the relationship between behavioral and neural loss aversion holds at rest, i.e. when the BOLD signal is collected during 5minutes of cross-fixation in the absence of an explicit task. Within the resting-state networks highlighted by a spatial group Independent Component Analysis (gICA), we found a significant correlation between strength of activity and behavioral loss aversion in the left ventral striatum and right posterior insula/supramarginal gyrus, i.e. the very same regions displaying a pattern of neural loss aversion during explicit choices. Cross-study analyses confirmed that this correlation holds when voxels identified by gICA are used as regions of interest in task-related activity and vice versa. These results suggest that the individual degree of (neural) loss aversion represents a stable dimension of decision-making, which reflects in specific metrics of intrinsic brain activity at rest possibly modulating cortical excitability at choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neural Effects of Cannabinoid CB1 Neutral Antagonist Tetrahydrocannabivarin on Food Reward and Aversion in Healthy Volunteers

PubMed Central

Tudge, Luke; Williams, Clare; Cowen, Philip J.

2015-01-01

Background: Disturbances in the regulation of reward and aversion in the brain may underlie disorders such as obesity and eating disorders. We previously showed that the cannabis receptor subtype (CB1) inverse agonist rimonabant, an antiobesity drug withdrawn due to depressogenic side effects, diminished neural reward responses yet increased aversive responses (Horder et al., 2010). Unlike rimonabant, tetrahydrocannabivarin is a neutral CB1 receptor antagonist (Pertwee, 2005) and may therefore produce different modulations of the neural reward system. We hypothesized that tetrahydrocannabivarin would, unlike rimonabant, leave intact neural reward responses but augment aversive responses. Methods: We used a within-subject, double-blind design. Twenty healthy volunteers received a single dose of tetrahydrocannabivarin (10mg) and placebo in randomized order on 2 separate occasions. We measured the neural response to rewarding (sight and/or flavor of chocolate) and aversive stimuli (picture of moldy strawberries and/or a less pleasant strawberry taste) using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Volunteers rated pleasantness, intensity, and wanting for each stimulus. Results: There were no significant differences between groups in subjective ratings. However, tetrahydrocannabivarin increased responses to chocolate stimuli in the midbrain, anterior cingulate cortex, caudate, and putamen. Tetrahydrocannabivarin also increased responses to aversive stimuli in the amygdala, insula, mid orbitofrontal cortex, caudate, and putamen. Conclusions: Our findings are the first to show that treatment with the CB1 neutral antagonist tetrahydrocannabivarin increases neural responding to rewarding and aversive stimuli. This effect profile suggests therapeutic activity in obesity, perhaps with a lowered risk of depressive side effects. PMID:25542687

Neural effects of cannabinoid CB1 neutral antagonist tetrahydrocannabivarin on food reward and aversion in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Tudge, Luke; Williams, Clare; Cowen, Philip J; McCabe, Ciara

2014-12-25

Disturbances in the regulation of reward and aversion in the brain may underlie disorders such as obesity and eating disorders. We previously showed that the cannabis receptor subtype (CB1) inverse agonist rimonabant, an antiobesity drug withdrawn due to depressogenic side effects, diminished neural reward responses yet increased aversive responses (Horder et al., 2010). Unlike rimonabant, tetrahydrocannabivarin is a neutral CB1 receptor antagonist (Pertwee, 2005) and may therefore produce different modulations of the neural reward system. We hypothesized that tetrahydrocannabivarin would, unlike rimonabant, leave intact neural reward responses but augment aversive responses. We used a within-subject, double-blind design. Twenty healthy volunteers received a single dose of tetrahydrocannabivarin (10mg) and placebo in randomized order on 2 separate occasions. We measured the neural response to rewarding (sight and/or flavor of chocolate) and aversive stimuli (picture of moldy strawberries and/or a less pleasant strawberry taste) using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Volunteers rated pleasantness, intensity, and wanting for each stimulus. There were no significant differences between groups in subjective ratings. However, tetrahydrocannabivarin increased responses to chocolate stimuli in the midbrain, anterior cingulate cortex, caudate, and putamen. Tetrahydrocannabivarin also increased responses to aversive stimuli in the amygdala, insula, mid orbitofrontal cortex, caudate, and putamen. Our findings are the first to show that treatment with the CB1 neutral antagonist tetrahydrocannabivarin increases neural responding to rewarding and aversive stimuli. This effect profile suggests therapeutic activity in obesity, perhaps with a lowered risk of depressive side effects. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of CINP.

Individual differences in trait motivational reactivity influence children and adolescents' responses to pictures of taboo products.

PubMed

Lang, Annie; Lee, Sungkyoung

2014-09-01

This study examined how children and adolescents respond to pictures of products whose use, for them, is socially or legally restricted (e.g., beer, liquor, cigarettes). It was theorized and found that these pictures, referred to as taboo, elicit an automatic motivational activation whose direction and intensity are influenced by age and individual differences in defensive system activation. Results show that 11-12-year-old children demonstrate primarily aversive responses to taboo products, 13-15-year-old children have less aversive responses, and 16-17-year-old children have mixed appetitive and aversive motivational responses. Further, those with high defensive system activation show larger aversive and smaller appetitive responses across the age groups. These results suggest that placing pictures of these products in prevention messages may work for the prevention goal of reduced experimentation and risk in younger children but against the prevention goal for the older children who may be more likely to be exposed to opportunities for experimentation and use.

Coordinating a supply chain with a loss-averse retailer and effort dependent demand.

PubMed

Li, Liying; Wang, Yong

2014-01-01

This study investigates the channel coordination issue of a supply chain with a risk-neutral manufacturer and a loss-averse retailer facing stochastic demand that is sensitive to sales effort. Under the loss-averse newsvendor setting, a distribution-free gain/loss-sharing-and-buyback (GLB) contract has been shown to be able to coordinate the supply chain. However, we find that a GLB contract remains ineffective in managing the supply chain when retailer sales efforts influence the demand. To effectively coordinate the channel, we propose to combine a GLB contract with sales rebate and penalty (SRP) contract. In addition, we discover a special class of gain/loss contracts that can coordinate the supply chain and arbitrarily allocate the expected supply chain profit between the manufacturer and the retailer. We then analyze the effect of loss aversion on the retailer's decision-making behavior and supply chain performance. Finally, we perform a numerical study to illustrate the findings and gain additional insights.

Coordinating a Supply Chain with a Loss-Averse Retailer and Effort Dependent Demand

PubMed Central

Li, Liying

2014-01-01

This study investigates the channel coordination issue of a supply chain with a risk-neutral manufacturer and a loss-averse retailer facing stochastic demand that is sensitive to sales effort. Under the loss-averse newsvendor setting, a distribution-free gain/loss-sharing-and-buyback (GLB) contract has been shown to be able to coordinate the supply chain. However, we find that a GLB contract remains ineffective in managing the supply chain when retailer sales efforts influence the demand. To effectively coordinate the channel, we propose to combine a GLB contract with sales rebate and penalty (SRP) contract. In addition, we discover a special class of gain/loss contracts that can coordinate the supply chain and arbitrarily allocate the expected supply chain profit between the manufacturer and the retailer. We then analyze the effect of loss aversion on the retailer's decision-making behavior and supply chain performance. Finally, we perform a numerical study to illustrate the findings and gain additional insights. PMID:25197696

Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

PubMed

Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

2016-11-01

The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2006-04-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (a) the Allais paradox, (b) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (c) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (e.g., lottery tickets), (d) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (e.g., buying insurance), (e) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (f) the certainty effect, (g) the possibility effect, and (h) intransitivities. The authors test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared with previously proposed heuristics and 3 modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Dopamine Receptor-Specific Contributions to the Computation of Value.

PubMed

Burke, Christopher J; Soutschek, Alexander; Weber, Susanna; Raja Beharelle, Anjali; Fehr, Ernst; Haker, Helene; Tobler, Philippe N

2018-05-01

Dopamine is thought to play a crucial role in value-based decision making. However, the specific contributions of different dopamine receptor subtypes to the computation of subjective value remain unknown. Here we demonstrate how the balance between D1 and D2 dopamine receptor subtypes shapes subjective value computation during risky decision making. We administered the D2 receptor antagonist amisulpride or placebo before participants made choices between risky options. Compared with placebo, D2 receptor blockade resulted in more frequent choice of higher risk and higher expected value options. Using a novel model fitting procedure, we concurrently estimated the three parameters that define individual risk attitude according to an influential theoretical account of risky decision making (prospect theory). This analysis revealed that the observed reduction in risk aversion under amisulpride was driven by increased sensitivity to reward magnitude and decreased distortion of outcome probability, resulting in more linear value coding. Our data suggest that different components that govern individual risk attitude are under dopaminergic control, such that D2 receptor blockade facilitates risk taking and expected value processing.

Chemotherapy appointment scheduling under uncertainty using mean-risk stochastic integer programming.

PubMed

Alvarado, Michelle; Ntaimo, Lewis

2018-03-01

Oncology clinics are often burdened with scheduling large volumes of cancer patients for chemotherapy treatments under limited resources such as the number of nurses and chairs. These cancer patients require a series of appointments over several weeks or months and the timing of these appointments is critical to the treatment's effectiveness. Additionally, the appointment duration, the acuity levels of each appointment, and the availability of clinic nurses are uncertain. The timing constraints, stochastic parameters, rising treatment costs, and increased demand of outpatient oncology clinic services motivate the need for efficient appointment schedules and clinic operations. In this paper, we develop three mean-risk stochastic integer programming (SIP) models, referred to as SIP-CHEMO, for the problem of scheduling individual chemotherapy patient appointments and resources. These mean-risk models are presented and an algorithm is devised to improve computational speed. Computational results were conducted using a simulation model and results indicate that the risk-averse SIP-CHEMO model with the expected excess mean-risk measure can decrease patient waiting times and nurse overtime when compared to deterministic scheduling algorithms by 42 % and 27 %, respectively.

Risk Reduction and Resource Pooling on a Cooperation Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pietras, Cynthia J.; Cherek, Don R.; Lane, Scott D.; Tcheremissine, Oleg

2006-01-01

Two experiments investigated choice in adult humans on a simulated cooperation task to evaluate a risk-reduction account of sharing based on the energy-budget rule. The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts risk-averse choices when net energy gains exceed energy requirements (positive energy budget) and risk-prone choices…

Fear and anger have opposite effects on risk seeking in the gain frame.

PubMed

Habib, Marianne; Cassotti, Mathieu; Moutier, Sylvain; Houdé, Olivier; Borst, Grégoire

2015-01-01

Emotions strongly influence our decisions, particularly those made under risk. A classic example of the effect of emotion on decision making under risk is the "framing effect," which involves predictable shifts in preferences when the same problem is formulated in different ways. According to dual process theories, this bias could stem from an affective heuristic belonging to an intuitive type of reasoning. In this study, we examined whether specific incidental negative emotions (i.e., fear and anger) influence framing susceptibility and risk-taking identically. In each trial, participants received an initial amount of money, and pictures of angry or fearful faces were presented to them. Finally, participants chose between a sure option and a gamble option of equally expected value in a gain or loss frame. Risk-taking was modulated by emotional context: fear and anger influenced risk-taking specifically in the gain frame and had opposite effects. Fear increased risk-averse choices, whereas anger decreased risk-averse choices, leading to a suppression of the framing effect. These results confirm that emotions play a key role in framing susceptibility.

Monoamines and assessment of risks.

PubMed

Takahashi, Hidehiko

2012-12-01

Over the past decade, neuroeconomics studies utilizing neurophysiology methods (fMRI or EEG) have flourished, revealing the neural basis of 'boundedly rational' or 'irrational' decision-making that violates normative theory. The next question is how modulatory neurotransmission is involved in these central processes. Here I focused on recent efforts to understand how central monoamine transmission is related to nonlinear probability weighting and loss aversion, central features of prospect theory, which is a leading alternative to normative theory for decision-making under risk. Circumstantial evidence suggests that dopamine tone might be related to distortion of subjective reward probability and noradrenaline and serotonin tone might influence aversive emotional reaction to potential loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Depression and Anxiety Symptoms in Mothers of Newborns Hospitalized on the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Segre, Lisa S.; McCabe, Jennifer E.; Chuffo-Siewert, Rebecca; O’Hara, Michael W.

2014-01-01

Background Mothers of infants hospitalized in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are at risk for clinically significant levels of depression and anxiety symptoms; however, the maternal/infant characteristics that predict risk have been difficult to determine. Previous studies have conceptualized depression and anxiety symptoms separately, ignoring their comorbidity. Moreover, risk factors for these symptoms have not been assessed together in one study sample. Objectives The primary aim of this study was to determine whether a diagnostic classification approach or a common-factor model better explained the pattern of symptoms reported by NICU mothers, including depression, generalized anxiety, panic, and trauma. A secondary aim was to assess risk factors of aversive emotional states in NICU mothers based on the supported conceptual model. Method In this cross-sectional study, a nonprobability convenience sample of 200 NICU mothers completed questionnaires assessing maternal demographic and infant health characteristics, as well as maternal depression and anxiety symptoms. Structural equation modeling was used to test a diagnostic classification model, and a common-factor model of aversive emotional states and the risk factors of aversive emotional states in mothers in the NICU. Results Maximum likelihood estimates indicated that examining symptoms of depression and anxiety disorders as separate diagnostic classifications did not fit the data well, whereas examining the common factor of negative emotionality rendered an adequate fit to the data, and identified a history of depression, infant illness, and infant prematurity as significant risk factors. Discussion This study supports a multidimensional view of depression, and should guide both clinical practice and future research with NICU mothers. PMID:25171558

Risk and Interaction Aversion: Screening Mechanisms in the Prisoner's Dilemma Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canova, Gabriel A.; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

2018-07-01

When the interactions between cooperators (C) and defectors (D) can be partially avoided within a population, there may be an overall enhancement of cooperation. One example of such screening mechanism occurs in the presence of risk-averse agents (loners, L) that are neutral towards others, i.e., both L and its opponent, whatever its strategy, receive the same payoff. Their presence in the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game sustains the coexistence of cooperators and defectors far beyond the level attained in their absence. Another screening mechanism is a heterogeneous landscape obtained, for example, by site diluting the lattice. In this case, cooperation is enhanced with some fraction of such inactive, interaction-averse sites. By considering the interplay of both mechanisms, we show that there is an explosive increase in the range of densities, just above the percolation threshold, where neutrality is prevented and loners become extinct, the behavior reverting to the pure PD game. Interestingly, this occurs despite defectors being usually abundant in that region. This has to be compared with the corresponding loner-free region in the undiluted case that, besides being very small, is dominated by cooperators.

Risk and Interaction Aversion: Screening Mechanisms in the Prisoner's Dilemma Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canova, Gabriel A.; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

2017-09-01

When the interactions between cooperators (C) and defectors (D) can be partially avoided within a population, there may be an overall enhancement of cooperation. One example of such screening mechanism occurs in the presence of risk-averse agents (loners, L) that are neutral towards others, i.e., both L and its opponent, whatever its strategy, receive the same payoff. Their presence in the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game sustains the coexistence of cooperators and defectors far beyond the level attained in their absence. Another screening mechanism is a heterogeneous landscape obtained, for example, by site diluting the lattice. In this case, cooperation is enhanced with some fraction of such inactive, interaction-averse sites. By considering the interplay of both mechanisms, we show that there is an explosive increase in the range of densities, just above the percolation threshold, where neutrality is prevented and loners become extinct, the behavior reverting to the pure PD game. Interestingly, this occurs despite defectors being usually abundant in that region. This has to be compared with the corresponding loner-free region in the undiluted case that, besides being very small, is dominated by cooperators.

Adaptive Learning and Risk Taking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denrell, Jerker

2007-01-01

Humans and animals learn from experience by reducing the probability of sampling alternatives with poor past outcomes. Using simulations, J. G. March (1996) illustrated how such adaptive sampling could lead to risk-averse as well as risk-seeking behavior. In this article, the author develops a formal theory of how adaptive sampling influences risk…

Risky Business: An Analysis of Teacher Risk Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowen, Daniel H.; Buck, Stuart; Deck, Cary; Mills, Jonathan N.; Shuls, James V.

2015-01-01

A range of proposals aim to reform teacher compensation, recruitment, and retention. Teachers have generally not embraced these policies. One potential explanation for their objections is that teachers are relatively risk averse. We examine this hypothesis using a risk-elicitation task common to experimental economics. By comparing preferences of…

Risk: The Ethics of a Creative Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hargreaves, Janet

2008-01-01

Higher education in the UK espouses to develop intelligence and critical skills in undergraduates. To do this requires exposing students to challenge and thus risk. However, current models of quality assurance are risk-averse and thus potentially limit the scope of creative learning and teaching strategies. Using two case studies, this paper…

Emotion regulation and decision making under risk and uncertainty.

PubMed

Heilman, Renata M; Crişan, Liviu G; Houser, Daniel; Miclea, Mircea; Miu, Andrei C

2010-04-01

It is well established that emotion plays a key role in human social and economic decision making. The recent literature on emotion regulation (ER), however, highlights that humans typically make efforts to control emotion experiences. This leaves open the possibility that decision effects previously attributed to acute emotion may be a consequence of acute ER strategies such as cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression. In Study 1, we manipulated ER of laboratory-induced fear and disgust, and found that the cognitive reappraisal of these negative emotions promotes risky decisions (reduces risk aversion) in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task and is associated with increased performance in the prehunch/hunch period of the Iowa Gambling Task. In Study 2, we found that naturally occurring negative emotions also increase risk aversion in Balloon Analogue Risk Task, but the incidental use of cognitive reappraisal of emotions impedes this effect. We offer evidence that the increased effectiveness of cognitive reappraisal in reducing the experience of emotions underlies its beneficial effects on decision making. Copyright 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Mechanisms of contextual risk for adolescent self-injury: invalidation and conflict escalation in mother-child interactions.

PubMed

Crowell, Sheila E; Baucom, Brian R; McCauley, Elizabeth; Potapova, Natalia V; Fitelson, Martha; Barth, Heather; Smith, Cindy J; Beauchaine, Theodore P

2013-01-01

According to developmental theories of self-injury, both child characteristics and environmental contexts shape and maintain problematic behaviors. Although progress has been made toward identifying biological vulnerabilities to self-injury, mechanisms underlying psychosocial risk have received less attention. In the present study, we compared self-injuring adolescents (n = 17) with typical controls (n = 20) during a mother-child conflict discussion. Dyadic interactions were coded using both global and microanalytic systems, allowing for a highly detailed characterization of mother-child interactions. We also assessed resting state psychophysiological regulation, as indexed by respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA). Global coding revealed that maternal invalidation was associated with adolescent anger. Furthermore, maternal invalidation and coerciveness were both related to adolescent opposition/defiance. Results from the microanalytic system indicated that self-injuring dyads were more likely to escalate conflict, suggesting a potential mechanism through which emotion dysregulation is shaped and maintained over time. Finally, mother and teen aversiveness interacted to predict adolescent resting RSA. Low-aversive teens with highly aversive mothers had the highest RSA, whereas teens in high-high dyads showed the lowest RSA. These findings are consistent with theories that emotion invalidation and conflict escalation are possible contextual risk factors for self-injury.

Mechanisms of Contextual Risk for Adolescent Self-Injury: Invalidation and Conflict Escalation in Mother-Child Interactions

PubMed Central

Crowell, Sheila E.; Baucom, Brian R.; McCauley, Elizabeth; Potapova, Natalia V.; Fitelson, Martha; Barth, Heather; Smith, Cindy J.; Beauchaine, Theodore P.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE According to developmental theories of self-injury, both child characteristics and environmental contexts shape and maintain problematic behaviors. Although progress has been made toward identifying biological vulnerabilities to self-injury, mechanisms underlying psychosocial risk have received less attention. METHOD In the present study, we compared self-injuring adolescents (n=17) with typical controls (n=20) during a mother-child conflict discussion. Dyadic interactions were coded using both global and microanalytic systems, allowing for a highly detailed characterization of mother-child interactions. We also assessed resting state psychophysiological regulation, as indexed by respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA). RESULTS Global coding revealed that maternal invalidation was associated with adolescent anger. Furthermore, maternal invalidation and coerciveness were both related to adolescent opposition/defiance. Results from the microanalytic system indicated that self-injuring dyads were more likely to escalate conflict, suggesting a potential mechanism through which emotion dysregulation is shaped and maintained over time. Finally, mother and teen aversiveness interacted to predict adolescent resting RSA. Low-aversive teens with highly aversive mothers had the highest RSA, whereas teens in high-high dyads showed the lowest RSA. CONCLUSIONS These findings are consistent with theories that emotion invalidation and conflict escalation are possible contextual risk factors for self-injury. PMID:23581508

Are decisions under risk malleable?

PubMed

Fong, C; McCabe, K

1999-09-14

Human decision making under risk and uncertainty may depend on individual involvement in the outcome-generating process. Expected utility theory is silent on this issue. Prospect theory in its current form offers little, if any, prediction of how or why involvement in a process should matter, although it may offer ex post interpretations of empirical findings. Well-known findings in psychology demonstrate that when subjects exercise more involvement or choice in lottery procedures, they value their lottery tickets more highly. This often is interpreted as an "illusion of control," meaning that when subjects are more involved in a lottery, they may believe they are more likely to win, perhaps because they perceive that they have more control over the outcome. Our experimental design eliminates several possible alternative explanations for the results of previous studies in an experiment that varies the degree and type of involvement in lottery procedures. We find that in treatments with more involvement subjects on average place less rather than more value on their lottery tickets. One possible explanation for this is that involvement interacts with loss aversion by causing subjects to weigh losses more heavily than they would otherwise. One implication of our study is that involvement, either independently or in interaction with myopic loss aversion, may help explain the extreme risk aversion of bond investors.

Activation of the DLPFC Reveals an Asymmetric Effect in Risky Decision Making: Evidence from a tDCS Study

PubMed Central

Huang, Daqiang; Chen, Shu; Wang, Siqi; Shi, Jinchuan; Ye, Hang; Luo, Jun; Zheng, Haoli

2017-01-01

The phenomenon of loss aversion (the tendency for losses to have a greater impact than comparable gains) has long been observed in daily life. Neurocognitive studies and brain imaging studies have shed light on the correlation between the phenomenon of loss aversion and the brain region of the prefrontal cortex. Recent brain stimulation studies using bilateral transcranial magnetic stimulation or transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) have obtained various results showing the causal relationship between brain regions and decision making. With the goal of studying whether unilateral stimulation can change participants’ risky decision making in the frames of gains and losses, we applied different polarities of tDCS over the regions of the right or left prefrontal cortex. We also designed a risk measurement table (Multiple Price List) to reflect the participants’ attitudes toward risky decision making via the crossover point including the frames of gains and losses. The results of our experiment indicated that the participants tended to be more risk averse in the gain frame after receiving left anodal tDCS and more risk seeking in the loss frame after receiving right cathodal tDCS, which was consistent with the hypothesis that the process of risky decision making was correlated with the interaction of multiple systems in the brain. Our conclusion revealed an asymmetric effect of right/left DLPFC when the participants faced gains and losses, which partially provided the neural evidence and a feasible paradigm to help better understand risky decision making and loss aversion. The current study can not only expand the traditional understanding of the behavioral preferences of humans in economics but also accommodate empirical observations of behavioral economists on the preferences of humans. PMID:28174549

TRANSFER OF AVERSIVE RESPONDENT ELICITATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH EQUIVALENCE RELATIONS

PubMed Central

Valverde, Miguel RodrÍguez; Luciano, Carmen; Barnes-Holmes, Dermot

2009-01-01

The present study investigates the transfer of aversively conditioned respondent elicitation through equivalence classes, using skin conductance as the measure of conditioning. The first experiment is an attempt to replicate Experiment 1 in Dougher, Augustson, Markham, Greenway, and Wulfert (1994), with different temporal parameters in the aversive conditioning procedure employed. Match-to-sample procedures were used to teach 17 participants two 4-member equivalence classes. Then, one member of one class was paired with electric shock and one member of the other class was presented without shock. The remaining stimuli from each class were presented in transfer tests. Unlike the findings in the original study, transfer of conditioning was not achieved. In Experiment 2, similar procedures were used with 30 participants, although several modifications were introduced (formation of five-member classes, direct conditioning with several elements of each class, random sequences of stimulus presentation in transfer tests, reversal in aversive conditioning contingencies). More than 80% of participants who had shown differential conditioning also showed the transfer of function effect. Moreover, this effect was replicated within subjects for 3 participants. This is the first demonstration of the transfer of aversive respondent elicitation through stimulus equivalence classes with the presentation of transfer test trials in random order. The latter prevents the possibility that transfer effects are an artefact of transfer test presentation order. PMID:20119523

Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

PubMed

Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

2015-10-01

Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A model-based analysis of decision making under risk in obsessive-compulsive and hoarding disorders.

PubMed

Aranovich, Gabriel J; Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Pitt, Mark A; Myung, Jay I; Mathews, Carol A

2017-07-01

Attitudes towards risk are highly consequential in clinical disorders thought to be prone to "risky behavior", such as substance dependence, as well as those commonly associated with excessive risk aversion, such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and hoarding disorder (HD). Moreover, it has recently been suggested that attitudes towards risk may serve as a behavioral biomarker for OCD. We investigated the risk preferences of participants with OCD and HD using a novel adaptive task and a quantitative model from behavioral economics that decomposes risk preferences into outcome sensitivity and probability sensitivity. Contrary to expectation, compared to healthy controls, participants with OCD and HD exhibited less outcome sensitivity, implying less risk aversion in the standard economic framework. In addition, risk attitudes were strongly correlated with depression, hoarding, and compulsion scores, while compulsion (hoarding) scores were associated with more (less) "rational" risk preferences. These results demonstrate how fundamental attitudes towards risk relate to specific psychopathology and thereby contribute to our understanding of the cognitive manifestations of mental disorders. In addition, our findings indicate that the conclusion made in recent work that decision making under risk is unaltered in OCD is premature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The consolidation of inhibitory avoidance memory in mice depends on the intensity of the aversive stimulus: The involvement of the amygdala, dorsal hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Canto-de-Souza, L; Mattioli, R

2016-04-01

Several studies using inhibitory avoidance models have demonstrated the importance of limbic structures, such as the amygdala, dorsal hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex, in the consolidation of emotional memory. However, we aimed to investigate the role of the amygdala (AMG), dorsal hippocampus (DH) and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) of mice in the consolidation of step-down inhibitory avoidance and whether this avoidance would be conditioned relative to the intensity of the aversive stimulus. To test this, we bilaterally infused anisomycin (ANI-40μg/μl, a protein synthesis inhibitor) into one of these three brain areas in mice. These mice were then exposed to one of two different intensities (moderate: 0.5mA or intense: 1.5mA) in a step-down inhibitory avoidance task. We found that consolidation of both of the aversive experiences was mPFC dependent, while the AMG and DH were only required for the consolidation of the intense experience. We suggest that in moderately aversive situations, which do not represent a severe physical risk to the individual, the consolidation of aversive experiences does not depend on protein synthesis in the AMG or the DH, but only the mPFC. However, for intense aversive stimuli all three of these limbic structures are essential for the consolidation of the experience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

Treesearch

Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

"A Question of Balance:" A Conference on Risk and Adventure in Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reed, Chris

2000-01-01

In November 2000, a conference in London hosted by three outdoor education associations examined the growing culture of risk aversion in the United Kingdom, the role of risk in learning, the increasing difficulty of finding a balance between risk and adventure, and the challenges of tempting children away from computer games and dealing with…

To Take Risk is to Face Loss: A Tonic Pupillometry Study

PubMed Central

Yechiam, Eldad; Telpaz, Ariel

2011-01-01

The construct of risk taking is studied through the prism of the relation between tonic arousal and risk taking behavior. Several theories have proposed that high aroused individuals tend to exhibit risk aversion. We posit that this arousal–behavior association is activated much more strongly in risks with losses, as losses increase arousal and trigger relevant traits associated with the sensitivity to risk. In three studies we examined risk taking in experience-based decision tasks, with either token losses or relative-losses (in the gain domain). In Study 1 we found a negative correlation between pre-task pupil diameter and risk taking in the loss domain but not in the gain domain. In Study 2 we re-analyzed a previous pupillometry dataset involving symmetric mixed gains and losses. We found that the negative correlation in this mixed condition emerged even while the participants did not show loss aversion. This finding was replicated in Study 3. Thus, the effect of losses on arousal provides sufficient conditions for the moderation of the tonic arousal–behavior association. The findings suggest an important role for losses in the psychological and physiological experience of risk. PMID:22125546

Very Low Birthweight: Dysregulated gestation versus evolutionary adaptation

PubMed Central

Catalano, Ralph; Karasek, Deborah; Gemmill, Alison; Falconi, April; Goodman, Julia; Magganas, Aristotle; Hartig, Terry

2015-01-01

Much medical literature attributes persistently high rates of very low birthweight (VLBW) to “dysregulated” gestation. We offer the alternative view that natural selection conserved well-regulated, though nonconscious, decisional biology that protects the reproductive fitness of women by spontaneously aborting gestations that would otherwise yield frail infants, particularly small males. Modern obstetric practice, however, converts some fraction of these erstwhile spontaneous abortions into live births of very small infants. We further propose that the nonconscious decisional biology of gestation exhibits preferences also seen in consciously made decisions. We hypothesize that the incidence of VLBW among male infants should vary with the population's self-reported intentions to assume financial risk. We apply time-series modeling to monthly birth counts by sex and weight from the Swedish Medical Birth Registry between January 1993 and December 2010. We gauge risk aversion with monthly data from the Micro Index of the Swedish Consumer Tendency Survey (MISCT). Consistent with our argument that nonconscious decisional biology shares risk aversion with conscious decisions, we find that the incidence of VLBW among male infants in Sweden varies with the population's self-reported intentions to assume financial risk. We find increases above expected odds of a very low weight infant among males born 1 month after increases above expected levels of self-reported risk aversion in the Swedish population. We offer this finding as support for the argument that persistently high rates of VLBW arise, at least in part, from a combination of medical interventions and mechanisms conserved by natural selection to protect reproductive fitness. PMID:24593927

Toxoplasma gondii influences aversive behaviors of female rats in an estrus cycle dependent manner.

PubMed

Golcu, Doruk; Gebre, Rahiwa Z; Sapolsky, Robert M

2014-08-01

The protozoan Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) manipulates the behavior of its rodent intermediate host to facilitate its passage to its feline definitive host. This is accomplished by a reduction of the aversive response that rodents show towards cat odors, which likely increases the predation risk. Females on average show similar changes as males. However, behaviors that relate to aversion and attraction are usually strongly influenced by the estrus cycle. In this study, we replicated behavioral effects of T. gondii in female rats, as well as expanded it to two novel behavioral paradigms. We also characterized the role of the estrus cycle in the behavioral effects of T. gondii on female rats. Uninfected females preferred to spend more time in proximity to rabbit rather than bobcat urine, and in a dark chamber rather than a lit chamber. Infected females lost both of these preferences, and also spent more time investigating social novelty (foreign bedding in their environment). Taken together, these data suggest that infection makes females less risk averse and more exploratory. Furthermore, this effect was influenced by the estrus cycle. Uninfected rats preferred rabbit urine to bobcat urine throughout the cycle except at estrus and metestrus. In contrast, infected rats lost this preference at every stage of the cycle except estrus. Commensurate with the possibility that this was a hormone-dependent effect, infected rats had elevated levels of circulating progesterone, a known anxiolytic. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Toxoplasma gondii influences aversive behaviors of female rats in an estrus cycle dependent manner

PubMed Central

Golcu, Doruk; Gebre, Rahiwa Z.; Sapolsky, Robert M.

2016-01-01

The protozoan Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) manipulates the behavior of its rodent intermediate host to facilitate its passage to its feline definitive host. This is accomplished by a reduction of the aversive response that rodents show towards cat odors, which likely increases the predation risk. Females on average show similar changes as males. However, behaviors that relate to aversion and attraction are usually strongly influenced by the estrus cycle. In this study, we replicated behavioral effects of T. gondii in female rats, as well as expanded it to two novel behavioral paradigms. We also characterized the role of the estrus cycle in the behavioral effects of T. gondii on female rats. Uninfected females preferred to spend more time in proximity to rabbit rather than bobcat urine, and in a dark chamber rather than a lit chamber. Infected females lost both of these preferences, and also spent more time investigating social novelty (foreign bedding in their environment). Taken together, these data suggest that infection makes females less risk averse and more exploratory. Furthermore, this effect was influenced by the estrus cycle. Uninfected rats preferred rabbit urine to bobcat urine throughout the cycle except at estrus and metestrus. In contrast, infected rats lost this preference at every stage of the cycle except estrus. Commensurate with the possibility that this was a hormone-dependent effect, infected rats had elevated levels of circulating progesterone, a known anxiolytic. PMID:24907696

Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

2013-01-01

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: An introduction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease r...

Processing speed and memory mediate age-related differences in decision making.

PubMed

Henninger, Debra E; Madden, David J; Huettel, Scott A

2010-06-01

Decision making under risk changes with age. Increases in risk aversion with age have been most commonly characterized, although older adults may be risk seeking in some decision contexts. An important, and unanswered, question is whether these changes in decision making reflect a direct effect of aging or, alternatively, an indirect effect caused by age-related changes in specific cognitive processes. In the current study, older adults (M = 71 years) and younger adults (M = 24 years) completed a battery of tests of cognitive capacities and decision-making preferences. The results indicated systematic effects of age upon decision quality-with both increased risk seeking and increased risk aversion observed in different tasks-consistent with prior studies. Path analyses, however, revealed that age-related effects were mediated by individual differences in processing speed and memory. When those variables were included in the model, age was no longer a significant predictor of decision quality. The authors conclude that the reduction in decision quality and associated changes in risk preferences commonly ascribed to aging are instead mediated by age-related changes in underlying cognitive capacities. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

Acute stress affects risk taking but not ambiguity aversion

PubMed Central

Buckert, Magdalena; Schwieren, Christiane; Kudielka, Brigitte M.; Fiebach, Christian J.

2014-01-01

Economic decisions are often made in stressful situations (e.g., at the trading floor), but the effects of stress on economic decision making have not been systematically investigated so far. The present study examines how acute stress influences economic decision making under uncertainty (risk and ambiguity) using financially incentivized lotteries. We varied the domain of decision making as well as the expected value of the risky prospect. Importantly, no feedback was provided to investigate risk taking and ambiguity aversion independent from learning processes. In a sample of 75 healthy young participants, 55 of whom underwent a stress induction protocol (Trier Social Stress Test for Groups), we observed more risk seeking for gains. This effect was restricted to a subgroup of participants that showed a robust cortisol response to acute stress (n = 26). Gambling under ambiguity, in contrast to gambling under risk, was not influenced by the cortisol response to stress. These results show that acute psychosocial stress affects economic decision making under risk, independent of learning processes. Our results further point to the importance of cortisol as a mediator of this effect. PMID:24834024

Acute stress affects risk taking but not ambiguity aversion.

PubMed

Buckert, Magdalena; Schwieren, Christiane; Kudielka, Brigitte M; Fiebach, Christian J

2014-01-01

Economic decisions are often made in stressful situations (e.g., at the trading floor), but the effects of stress on economic decision making have not been systematically investigated so far. The present study examines how acute stress influences economic decision making under uncertainty (risk and ambiguity) using financially incentivized lotteries. We varied the domain of decision making as well as the expected value of the risky prospect. Importantly, no feedback was provided to investigate risk taking and ambiguity aversion independent from learning processes. In a sample of 75 healthy young participants, 55 of whom underwent a stress induction protocol (Trier Social Stress Test for Groups), we observed more risk seeking for gains. This effect was restricted to a subgroup of participants that showed a robust cortisol response to acute stress (n = 26). Gambling under ambiguity, in contrast to gambling under risk, was not influenced by the cortisol response to stress. These results show that acute psychosocial stress affects economic decision making under risk, independent of learning processes. Our results further point to the importance of cortisol as a mediator of this effect.

Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio

PubMed Central

Lima de Miranda, Katharina; Neyse, Levent; Schmidt, Ulrich

2018-01-01

Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D) is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i) others’ responses (without sex specification), (ii) men’s responses, and (iii) women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific) and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies. PMID:29472846

The role of cognitive effort in subjective reward devaluation and risky decision-making.

PubMed

Apps, Matthew A J; Grima, Laura L; Manohar, Sanjay; Husain, Masud

2015-11-20

Motivation is underpinned by cost-benefit valuations where costs-such as physical effort or outcome risk-are subjectively weighed against available rewards. However, in many environments risks pertain not to the variance of outcomes, but to variance in the possible levels of effort required to obtain rewards (effort risks). Moreover, motivation is often guided by the extent to which cognitive-not physical-effort devalues rewards (effort discounting). Yet, very little is known about the mechanisms that underpin the influence of cognitive effort risks or discounting on motivation. We used two cost-benefit decision-making tasks to probe subjective sensitivity to cognitive effort (number of shifts of spatial attention) and to effort risks. Our results show that shifts of spatial attention when monitoring rapidly presented visual stimuli are perceived as effortful and devalue rewards. Additionally, most people are risk-averse, preferring safe, known amounts of effort over risky offers. However, there was no correlation between their effort and risk sensitivity. We show for the first time that people are averse to variance in the possible amount of cognitive effort to be exerted. These results suggest that cognitive effort sensitivity and risk sensitivity are underpinned by distinct psychological and neurobiological mechanisms.

The Impact of Menstrual Cycle Phase on Economic Choice and Rationality.

PubMed

Lazzaro, Stephanie C; Rutledge, Robb B; Burghart, Daniel R; Glimcher, Paul W

2016-01-01

It is well known that hormones affect both brain and behavior, but less is known about the extent to which hormones affect economic decision-making. Numerous studies demonstrate gender differences in attitudes to risk and loss in financial decision-making, often finding that women are more loss and risk averse than men. It is unclear what drives these effects and whether cyclically varying hormonal differences between men and women contribute to differences in economic preferences. We focus here on how economic rationality and preferences change as a function of menstrual cycle phase in women. We tested adherence to the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP), the standard test of economic rationality. If choices satisfy GARP then there exists a well-behaved utility function that the subject's decisions maximize. We also examined whether risk attitudes and loss aversion change as a function of cycle phase. We found that, despite large fluctuations in hormone levels, women are as technically rational in their choice behavior as their male counterparts at all phases of the menstrual cycle. However, women are more likely to choose risky options that can lead to potential losses while ovulating; during ovulation women are less loss averse than men and therefore more economically rational than men in this regard. These findings may have market-level implications: ovulating women more effectively maximize expected value than do other groups.

The Impact of Menstrual Cycle Phase on Economic Choice and Rationality

PubMed Central

Lazzaro, Stephanie C.; Rutledge, Robb B.; Burghart, Daniel R.; Glimcher, Paul W.

2016-01-01

It is well known that hormones affect both brain and behavior, but less is known about the extent to which hormones affect economic decision-making. Numerous studies demonstrate gender differences in attitudes to risk and loss in financial decision-making, often finding that women are more loss and risk averse than men. It is unclear what drives these effects and whether cyclically varying hormonal differences between men and women contribute to differences in economic preferences. We focus here on how economic rationality and preferences change as a function of menstrual cycle phase in women. We tested adherence to the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP), the standard test of economic rationality. If choices satisfy GARP then there exists a well-behaved utility function that the subject’s decisions maximize. We also examined whether risk attitudes and loss aversion change as a function of cycle phase. We found that, despite large fluctuations in hormone levels, women are as technically rational in their choice behavior as their male counterparts at all phases of the menstrual cycle. However, women are more likely to choose risky options that can lead to potential losses while ovulating; during ovulation women are less loss averse than men and therefore more economically rational than men in this regard. These findings may have market-level implications: ovulating women more effectively maximize expected value than do other groups. PMID:26824245

Risk attitudes and personality traits predict perceptions of benefits and risks for medicinal products: a field study of European medical assessors.

PubMed

Beyer, Andrea R; Fasolo, Barbara; de Graeff, P A; Hillege, H L

2015-01-01

Risk attitudes and personality traits are known predictors of decision making among laypersons, but very little is known of their influence among experts participating in organizational decision making. Seventy-five European medical assessors were assessed in a field study using the Domain Specific Risk Taking scale and the Big Five Inventory scale. Assessors rated the risks and benefits for a mock "clinical dossier" specific to their area of expertise, and ordinal regression models were used to assess the odds of risk attitude or personality traits in predicting either the benefit or the risk ratings. An increase in the "conscientiousness" score predicted an increase in the perception of the drug's benefit, and male assessors gave higher scores for the drug's benefit ratings than did female assessors. Extraverted assessors saw fewer risks, and assessors with a perceived neutral-averse or averse risk profile saw greater risks. Medical assessors perceive the benefits and risks of medicines via a complex interplay of the medical situation, their personality traits and even their gender. Further research in this area is needed to determine how these potential biases are managed within the regulatory setting. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predator experience overrides learned aversion to heterospecifics in stickleback species pairs

PubMed Central

Kozak, Genevieve M.; Boughman, Janette W.

2015-01-01

Predation risk can alter female mating decisions because the costs of mate searching and selecting attractive mates increase when predators are present. In response to predators, females have been found to plastically adjust mate preference within species, but little is known about how predators alter sexual isolation and hybridization among species. We tested the effects of predator exposure on sexual isolation between benthic and limnetic threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus spp.). Female discrimination against heterospecific mates was measured before and after females experienced a simulated attack by a trout predator or a control exposure to a harmless object. In the absence of predators, females showed increased aversion to heterospecifics over time. We found that predator exposure made females less discriminating and precluded this learned aversion to heterospecifics. Benthic and limnetic males differ in coloration, and predator exposure also affected sexual isolation by weakening female preferences for colourful males. Predator effects on sexual selection were also tested but predators had few effects on female choosiness among conspecific mates. Our results suggest that predation risk may disrupt the cognitive processes associated with mate choice and lead to fluctuations in the strength of sexual isolation between species. PMID:25808887

Do general practitioners' risk-taking propensities and learning styles influence their continuing medical education preferences?

PubMed

Robinson, Geoffrey

2002-01-01

US studies have shown that a clinician's risk-taking propensity significantly predicts clinical behaviour. Other US studies examining relationships between family practice doctors' preferences for CME and their Kolb learning style have described conflicting findings. The aim of the present study was to investigate GPs' learning styles, risk-taking propensities and CME preferences, and to explore links between them. A descriptive confidential cross-sectional postal questionnaire survey of the 304 general practitioner principals within Portsmouth and South East Hampshire Health Authority was conducted. Two hundred and seventy-four GPs returned questionnaires, a response rate of 90.1%. The Kolb learning style types were assimilators 43.8% (predominant learning abilities watching and thinking), divergers 21.1% (feeling and watching), convergers 18.3% (doing and thinking), and accommodators 16.8% (doing and feeling). The Pearson risk-taking propensities were 65.8% risk neutral, 19.4% risk seeking and 14.8% risk averse. Risk-seeking GPs were significantly more likely to be accommodators or convergers than divergers or assimilators (p = 0.006). Majorities of 54.9% stated that the present PGEA system works well, 85% welcomed feedback from their peers, and 76.8% stated that learning should be an activity for all the practice team. Further majorities would welcome help to decide their learning needs (63.8%) and are looking to judge CME effectiveness by changes in GP performance or patient care (54.8%). Further significant correlations and cross-tabulations were found between learning style and risk-taking and CME attitudes, experiences and preferences. It is concluded that risk seekers and accommodators (doing and feeling) prefer feedback, interaction and practical hands-on learning, and assimilators (watching and thinking) and the risk averse tend towards lectures, theoretical learning formats and less interactive activities. Sharing feelings in groups may be difficult for the risk averse and assimilators. The success of a combined educational strategy will depend on an inclusive philosophy, both recognizing and engaging the wide range of differences in learning style and risk taking for all the individuals who make up learning teams.

Rationality in Human Movement.

PubMed

O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

2016-01-01

It long has been appreciated that humans behave irrationally in economic decisions under risk: they fail to objectively consider uncertainty, costs, and rewards and instead exhibit risk-seeking or risk-averse behavior. We hypothesize that poor estimates of motor variability (influenced by motor task) and distorted probability weighting (influenced by relevant emotional processes) contribute to characteristic irrationality in human movement decisions.

At-Risk Student Averse: Risk Management and Accountability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vasquez Heilig, Julian; Young, Michelle; Williams, Amy

2012-01-01

Purpose: The prevailing theory of action underlying accountability is that holding schools and students accountable will increase educational output. While accountability's theory of action intuitively seemed plausible, at the point of No Child Left Behind's national implementation, little empirical research was available to either support or…

The Effects of Age, Priming, and Working Memory on Decision-Making.

PubMed

Wood, Meagan; Black, Sheila; Gilpin, Ansley

2016-01-11

In the current study, we examined the effects of priming and personality on risky decision-making while playing the Game of Dice Task (GDT). In the GDT, participants decide how risky they wish to be on each trial. In this particular study prior to playing the GDT, participants were randomly assigned to one of three priming conditions: Risk-Aversive, Risk-Seeking, or Control. In the Risk-Seeking condition, a fictional character benefitted from risky behavior while in the Risk-Aversive condition, a fictional character benefitted from exercising caution. Although not explicitly stated in the instructions, participants need to make "safe" rather than risky choices to optimize performance on the GDT. Participants were also given Daneman and Carpenter's assessment of working memory task. Interestingly, although older adults self-reported being more cautious than younger adults on the Domain Specific Risk Attitude scale (DOSPERT), older adults made riskier decisions than younger adults on the GDT. However, after controlling for working memory, the age differences on the GDT became insignificant, indicating that working memory mediated the relation between age and risky decisions on the GDT.

Measuring transplant center performance: The goals are not controversial but the methods and consequences can be.

PubMed

Jay, Colleen; Schold, Jesse D

2017-03-01

Risks of regulatory scrutiny has generated widespread concern about increasingly risk averse transplant center behaviors regarding both donor and candidate acceptance patterns. To address potential unintended consequences threatening access to care, we discuss recent changes in regulatory metrics and potential improvements in quality oversight of transplant centers. Despite many recent changes to one-year patient and graft survival regulatory criteria, the capacity to accurately identify true underperforming centers and avoiding false positive flagging remains an area of great concern. Numerous studies have demonstrated restrictions in transplant volume and access following transplant center flagging. Current regulatory criteria are limited in their capacity to accurately identify poorly performing centers and potentially encourage risk-averse behavior by transplant centers. Efforts to address these concerns should focus on (1) improving risk-adjustment models with better data which captures the acuity of candidate and donor risk, (2) reconsidering primary outcomes measured to assess comprehensive transplant center performance, (3) improving education to address rational or perceived disincentives, and (4) using data more effectively to share best practices.

The Effects of Age, Priming, and Working Memory on Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Wood, Meagan; Black, Sheila; Gilpin, Ansley

2016-01-01

In the current study, we examined the effects of priming and personality on risky decision-making while playing the Game of Dice Task (GDT). In the GDT, participants decide how risky they wish to be on each trial. In this particular study prior to playing the GDT, participants were randomly assigned to one of three priming conditions: Risk-Aversive, Risk-Seeking, or Control. In the Risk-Seeking condition, a fictional character benefitted from risky behavior while in the Risk-Aversive condition, a fictional character benefitted from exercising caution. Although not explicitly stated in the instructions, participants need to make “safe” rather than risky choices to optimize performance on the GDT. Participants were also given Daneman and Carpenter’s assessment of working memory task. Interestingly, although older adults self-reported being more cautious than younger adults on the Domain Specific Risk Attitude scale (DOSPERT), older adults made riskier decisions than younger adults on the GDT. However, after controlling for working memory, the age differences on the GDT became insignificant, indicating that working memory mediated the relation between age and risky decisions on the GDT. PMID:26761023

Risk prediction and aversion by anterior cingulate cortex.

PubMed

Brown, Joshua W; Braver, Todd S

2007-12-01

The recently proposed error-likelihood hypothesis suggests that anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and surrounding areas will become active in proportion to the perceived likelihood of an error. The hypothesis was originally derived from a computational model prediction. The same computational model now makes a further prediction that ACC will be sensitive not only to predicted error likelihood, but also to the predicted magnitude of the consequences, should an error occur. The product of error likelihood and predicted error consequence magnitude collectively defines the general "expected risk" of a given behavior in a manner analogous but orthogonal to subjective expected utility theory. New fMRI results from an incentivechange signal task now replicate the error-likelihood effect, validate the further predictions of the computational model, and suggest why some segments of the population may fail to show an error-likelihood effect. In particular, error-likelihood effects and expected risk effects in general indicate greater sensitivity to earlier predictors of errors and are seen in risk-averse but not risk-tolerant individuals. Taken together, the results are consistent with an expected risk model of ACC and suggest that ACC may generally contribute to cognitive control by recruiting brain activity to avoid risk.

Assaying the Effect of Levodopa on the Evaluation of Risk in Healthy Humans

PubMed Central

Symmonds, Mkael; Wright, Nicholas D.; Fagan, Elizabeth; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20) employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes) and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes - skewness), dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback. PMID:23844168

The influence of surgeon personality factors on risk tolerance: a pilot study.

PubMed

Contessa, Jack; Suarez, Luis; Kyriakides, Tassos; Nadzam, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

This study attempts to assess the association between surgeon personality factors (measured by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator personality inventory (MBTI(®))) and risk tolerance (measured by the Revised Physicians' Reactions to Uncertainty (PRU) and Physician Risk Attitude (PRA) scales). Instrument assessing surgeon personality profile (MBTI) and 2 questionnaires measuring surgeon risk tolerance and risk aversion (PRU and PRA). Saint Raphael campus of Yale New Haven Hospital in New Haven, Connecticut. Twenty categorical surgery residents and 7 surgical core faculty members. The following findings suggest there might be a relationship between surgeon personality factors and risk tolerance. In certain areas of risk assessment, it appears that surgeons with personality factors E (Extravert), T (Thinking), and P (Perception) demonstrated higher tolerance for risk. Conversely, as MBTI(®) dichotomies are complementary, surgeons with personality factors I (Introvert), F (Feeling), and J (Judgment) suggest risk aversion on these same measures. These findings are supported by at least 2 studies outside medicine demonstrating that personality factors E, N, T, and P are associated with risk taking. This preliminary research project represents an initial step in exploring what may be considered a fundamental component in a "successful" surgical personality. © 2013 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analyzing Test-Taking Behavior: Decision Theory Meets Psychometric Theory.

PubMed

Budescu, David V; Bo, Yuanchao

2015-12-01

We investigate the implications of penalizing incorrect answers to multiple-choice tests, from the perspective of both test-takers and test-makers. To do so, we use a model that combines a well-known item response theory model with prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47:263-91, 1979). Our results reveal that when test-takers are fully informed of the scoring rule, the use of any penalty has detrimental effects for both test-takers (they are always penalized in excess, particularly those who are risk averse and loss averse) and test-makers (the bias of the estimated scores, as well as the variance and skewness of their distribution, increase as a function of the severity of the penalty).

Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

2018-02-01

We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

Gender differences in sleep deprivation effects on risk and inequality aversion: evidence from an economic experiment.

PubMed

Ferrara, Michele; Bottasso, Anna; Tempesta, Daniela; Carrieri, Marika; De Gennaro, Luigi; Ponti, Giovanni

2015-01-01

Excessive working hours--even at night--are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects' risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced) participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females' reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making.

Gender Differences in Sleep Deprivation Effects on Risk and Inequality Aversion: Evidence from an Economic Experiment

PubMed Central

Ferrara, Michele; Bottasso, Anna; Tempesta, Daniela; Carrieri, Marika; De Gennaro, Luigi; Ponti, Giovanni

2015-01-01

Excessive working hours—even at night—are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects’ risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced) participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females’ reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making. PMID:25793869

Involvement of Serotonin Transporter Gene Polymorphisms (5-HTT) in Impulsive Behavior in the Japanese Population

PubMed Central

Nomura, Michio; Kaneko, Masayuki; Okuma, Yasunobu; Nomura, Jun; Kusumi, Ichiro; Koyama, Tsukasa; Nomura, Yasuyuki

2015-01-01

The serotonergic pathway has been implicated in the pathogenesis of impulsivity, and sensitivity to aversive outcomes may be linked to serotonin (5-HT) levels. Polymorphisms in the gene that encodes the serotonin transporter (5-HTT), which have differential effects on the level of serotonin transmission, display alternate responses to aversive stimuli. However, recent studies have shown that 5-HT does not affect motor function, which suggests that the functioning of the serotonin-transporter-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) does not directly affect the behavioral regulatory process itself, but instead exerts an effect via the evaluation of the potential risk associated with particular behavioral outputs. The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of specific 5-HTTLPR genotypes on the motor regulatory process, as observed during a Go/Nogo punishment feedback task. 5-HTT gene-linked promoter polymorphisms were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction, using lymphocytes from 61 healthy Japanese volunteers. Impulsivity was defined as the number of commission errors (responding when one should not) made during a Go/Nogo task. We found that the s/s genotype group made fewer impulsive responses, specifically under aversive conditions for committing such errors, compared to those in the s/l group, without affecting overall motor inhibition. These results suggest that 5-HTTLPRs do not directly affect the behavioral regulatory process itself, but may instead exert an effect on the evaluation of potential risk. The results also indicate that under such aversive conditions, decreased expression of 5-HTT may promote motor inhibitory control. PMID:25775400

Neuropsychological basic deficits in preschoolers at risk for ADHD: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pauli-Pott, Ursula; Becker, Katja

2011-06-01

Widely accepted neuropsychological theories on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) assume that the complex symptoms of the disease arise from developmentally preceding neuropsychological basic deficits. These deficits in executive functions and delay aversion are presumed to emerge in the preschool period. The corresponding normative developmental processes include phases of relative stability and rapid change. These non-linear developmental processes might have implications for concurrent and predictive associations between basic deficits and ADHD symptoms. To derive a description of the nature and strength of these associations, a meta-analysis was conducted. It is assumed that weighted mean effect sizes differ between basic deficits and depend on age. The meta-analysis included 25 articles (n=3005 children) in which associations between assessments of basic deficits (i.e. response inhibition, interference control, delay aversion, working memory, flexibility, and vigilance/arousal) in the preschool period and concurrent or subsequent ADHD symptoms or diagnosis of ADHD had been analyzed. For response inhibition and delay aversion, mean effect sizes were of medium to large magnitude while the mean effect size for working memory was small. Meta-regression analyses revealed that effect sizes of delay aversion tasks significantly decreased with increasing age while effect sizes of interference control tasks and Continuous Performance Tests (CPTs) significantly increased. Depending on the normative maturational course of each skill, time windows might exist that allow for a more or less valid assessment of a specific deficit. In future research these time windows might help to describe early developing forms of ADHD and to identify children at risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenging the Conventional Wisdom on Endowment Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spitz, William T.

2001-01-01

The conventional wisdom suggests that colleges and universities that are highly dependent on endowment income should be risk-averse because a significant decrease in the value of the fund could potentially prove fatal. This article suggests that a conservative strategy may actually be self-defeating to institutions that rely heavily on endowment…

Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

2009-01-01

This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

Culture and Risk: Does the Future Compute? A Symposium.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnes, Susan B.; Perkinson, Henry J.; Talbott, Stephen L.

1998-01-01

Presents a symposium on the impact of computers on culture. Argues that the computer has mathematized culture and that widespread risk aversion has been generated everywhere. Finds that the ways in which communication technologies are used in social contexts is a topic of concern to communication scholars. (PA)

Spectral risk measures: the risk quadrangle and optimal approximation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kouri, Drew P.

We develop a general risk quadrangle that gives rise to a large class of spectral risk measures. The statistic of this new risk quadrangle is the average value-at-risk at a specific confidence level. As such, this risk quadrangle generates a continuum of error measures that can be used for superquantile regression. For risk-averse optimization, we introduce an optimal approximation of spectral risk measures using quadrature. Lastly, we prove the consistency of this approximation and demonstrate our results through numerical examples.

Spectral risk measures: the risk quadrangle and optimal approximation

DOE PAGES

Kouri, Drew P.

2018-05-24

We develop a general risk quadrangle that gives rise to a large class of spectral risk measures. The statistic of this new risk quadrangle is the average value-at-risk at a specific confidence level. As such, this risk quadrangle generates a continuum of error measures that can be used for superquantile regression. For risk-averse optimization, we introduce an optimal approximation of spectral risk measures using quadrature. Lastly, we prove the consistency of this approximation and demonstrate our results through numerical examples.

Potential determinants of deductible uptake in health insurance: How to increase uptake in The Netherlands?

PubMed

van Winssen, K P M; van Kleef, R C; van de Ven, W P M M

2016-12-01

In health insurance, voluntary deductibles are offered to the insured in return for a premium rebate. Previous research has shown that 11 % of the Dutch insured opted for a voluntary deductible (VD) in health insurance in 2014, while the highest VD level was financially profitable for almost 50 % of the population in retrospect. To explain this discrepancy, this paper identifies and discusses six potential determinants of the decision to opt for a VD from the behavioral economic literature: loss aversion, risk attitude, ambiguity aversion, debt aversion, omission bias, and liquidity constraints. Based on these determinants, five potential strategies are proposed to increase the number of insured opting for a VD. Presenting the VD as the default option and providing transparent information regarding the VD are the two most promising strategies. If, as a result of these strategies, more insured would opt for a VD, moral hazard would be reduced.

Prospect theory in the health domain: a quantitative assessment.

PubMed

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; I'Haridon, Olivier

2013-12-01

It is well-known that expected utility (EU) has empirical deficiencies. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) has developed as an alternative with more descriptive validity. However, CPT's full function had not yet been quantified in the health domain. This paper is therefore the first to simultaneously measure utility of life duration, probability weighting, and loss aversion in this domain. We observe loss aversion and risk aversion for gains and losses, which for gains can be explained by probabilistic pessimism. Utility for gains is almost linear. For losses, we find less weighting of probability 1/2 and concave utility. This contrasts with the common finding of convex utility for monetary losses. However, CPT was proposed to explain choices among lotteries involving monetary outcomes. Life years are arguably very different from monetary outcomes and need not generate convex utility for losses. Moreover, utility of life duration reflects discounting, causing concave utility. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emotions in cognitive conflicts are not aversive but are task specific.

PubMed

Schacht, Annekathrin; Dimigen, Olaf; Sommer, Werner

2010-09-01

It has been suggested that cognitive conflicts require effortful processing and, therefore, are aversive (Botvinick, 2007). In the present study, we compared conflicts emerging from the inhibition of a predominant response tendency in a go/no-go task with those between incompatible response activations in a Simon task in a within-subjects design, using the same type of stimuli. Whereas no-go trials elicited reduced skin conductance and pupillometric responses, but prolonged corrugator muscle activity, as compared with go trials, incompatible and compatible Simon trials were indistinguishable with respect to these parameters. Furthermore, the conflict-sensitive N2 components of the event-related brain potential were similar in amplitude, but showed significantly different scalp distributions, indicating dissociable neural generator systems. The present findings suggest the involvement of different emotional and cognitive processes in both types of cognitive conflicts-none being aversive, however. In addition, the N2 findings call into question claims of common monitoring systems for all kinds of cognitive conflicts.

Increased Loss Aversion in Unmedicated Patients with Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder.

PubMed

Sip, Kamila E; Gonzalez, Richard; Taylor, Stephan F; Stern, Emily R

2017-01-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) patients show abnormalities in decision-making and, clinically, appear to show heightened sensitivity to potential negative outcomes. Despite the importance of these cognitive processes in OCD, few studies have examined the disorder within an economic decision-making framework. Here, we investigated loss aversion, a key construct in the prospect theory that describes the tendency for individuals to be more sensitive to potential losses than gains when making decisions. Across two study sites, groups of unmedicated OCD patients ( n  = 14), medicated OCD patients ( n  = 29), and healthy controls ( n  = 34) accepted or rejected a series of 50/50 gambles containing varying loss/gain values. Loss aversion was calculated as the ratio of the likelihood of rejecting a gamble with increasing potential losses to the likelihood of accepting a gamble with increasing potential gains. Decision times to accept or reject were also examined and correlated with loss aversion. Unmedicated OCD patients exhibited significantly more loss aversion compared to medicated OCD or controls, an effect that was replicated across both sites and remained significant even after controlling for OCD symptom severity, trait anxiety, and sex. Post hoc analyses further indicated that unmedicated patients' increased likelihood to reject a gamble as its loss value increased could not be explained solely by greater risk aversion among patients. Unmedicated patients were also slower to accept than reject gambles, effects that were not found in the other two groups. Loss aversion was correlated with decision times in unmedicated patients but not in the other two groups. These data identify abnormalities of decision-making in a subgroup of OCD patients not taking psychotropic medication. The findings help elucidate the cognitive mechanisms of the disorder and suggest that future treatments could aim to target abnormalities of loss/gain processing during decision-making in this population.

Maintenance service contract model for heavy equipment in mining industry using principal agent theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pakpahan, Eka K. A.; Iskandar, Bermawi P.

2015-12-01

Mining industry is characterized by a high operational revenue, and hence high availability of heavy equipment used in mining industry is a critical factor to ensure the revenue target. To maintain high avaliability of the heavy equipment, the equipment's owner hires an agent to perform maintenance action. Contract is then used to control the relationship between the two parties involved. The traditional contracts such as fixed price, cost plus or penalty based contract studied is unable to push agent's performance to exceed target, and this in turn would lead to a sub-optimal result (revenue). This research deals with designing maintenance contract compensation schemes. The scheme should induce agent to select the highest possible maintenance effort level, thereby pushing agent's performance and achieve maximum utility for both parties involved. Principal agent theory is used as a modeling approach due to its ability to simultaneously modeled owner and agent decision making process. Compensation schemes considered in this research includes fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing. The optimal decision is obtained using a numerical method. The results show that if both parties are risk neutral, then there are infinite combination of fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing produced the same optimal solution. The combination of fixed price and cost sharing contract results in the optimal solution when the agent is risk averse, while the optimal combination of fixed price and revenue sharing contract is obtained when agent is risk averse. When both parties are risk averse, the optimal compensation scheme is a combination of fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing.

Reporting individual surgeon outcomes does not lead to risk aversion in abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery.

PubMed

Saratzis, A; Thatcher, A; Bath, M F; Sidloff, D A; Bown, M J; Shakespeare, J; Sayers, R D; Imray, C

2017-02-01

INTRODUCTION Reporting surgeons' outcomes has recently been introduced in the UK. This has the potential to result in surgeons becoming risk averse. The aim of this study was to investigate whether reporting outcomes for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery impacts on the number and risk profile (level of fitness) of patients offered elective treatment. METHODS Publically available National Vascular Registry data were used to compare the number of AAAs treated in those centres across the UK that reported outcomes for the periods 2008-2012, 2009-2013 and 2010-2014. Furthermore, the number and characteristics of patients referred for consideration of elective AAA repair at a single tertiary unit were analysed yearly between 2010 and 2014. Clinic, casualty and theatre event codes were searched to obtain all AAAs treated. The results of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) were assessed. RESULTS For the 85 centres that reported outcomes in all three five-year periods, the median number of AAAs treated per unit increased between the periods 2008-2012 and 2010-2014 from 192 to 214 per year (p=0.006). In the single centre cohort study, the proportion of patients offered elective AAA repair increased from 74% in 2009-2010 to 81% in 2013-2014, with a maximum of 84% in 2012-2013. The age, aneurysm size and CPET results (anaerobic threshold levels) for those eventually offered elective treatment did not differ significantly between 2010 and 2014. CONCLUSIONS The results do not support the assumption that reporting individual surgeon outcomes is associated with a risk averse strategy regarding patient selection in aneurysm surgery at present.

Juvenile stress potentiates aversive 22-kHz ultrasonic vocalizations and freezing during auditory fear conditioning in adult male rats.

PubMed

Yee, Nicole; Schwarting, Rainer K W; Fuchs, Eberhard; Wöhr, Markus

2012-09-01

Traumatic experiences that occur during adolescence can render individuals vulnerable to mood and anxiety disorders. A model in juvenile rats (age: 27-29 days) was developed previously to study the long-term effects of adolescent stress exposure on behaviour and physiology. This paradigm, termed juvenile stress, involves subjecting juvenile rats to different stressors on consecutive days over a 3-day period. Here, we investigated the effects of the juvenile stress paradigm on freezing behaviour and aversive 22-kHz ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) during auditory fear conditioning in adult male rats (age: 68-90 days). We found that rats previously subjected to juvenile stress increased aversive 22-kHz USVs (total calls and time spent calling) compared with controls during fear-conditioning training. The acoustic USV parameters between control and juvenile stress rats were largely equivalent, including duration, peak frequency and amplitude. While rats did not differ in freezing behaviour during fear conditioning, juvenile stress rats exhibited greater cue-conditioned freezing upon testing 24 h later. Our results show that juvenile stress elicited different long-term changes in freezing and aversive USVs during fear conditioning. Furthermore, they highlight the importance of assessing USVs to detect experience-dependent differences between control and stress-exposed animals which are not detectable by measuring visible behaviour.

[Cognitive mechanisms in risky decision-making in cannabis users].

PubMed

J R, Alameda-Bailén; M P, Salguero-Alcañiz; A, Merchán-Clavellino; S, Paíno-Quesada

2014-01-01

The relationship between the use of cannabis and the decision-making processes was explored. A computerized version of the Iowa Gambling Task (Cards Software) in its normal and reverse version was used, and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model, which characterize the process of decision-making based on the parameters: Recency, Consistency, Loss aversion and Utility shape, was applied. Seventy-three cannabis consumers and a control group with 73 nonconsumers participated in the study. In the normal mode, subjects in the control group scored higher than cannabis consumers. Both groups showed consistent responses and aversion to loss. Nonconsumers showed greater influence of the gain-loss frequency, while consumers were more influenced by the magnitude of the gain-loss. The influence of immediate choices was higher among consumers who showed a quick oblivion while in the control group this process was more gradual. In the reverse mode, task performance was better among control group participants. Both groups showed consistency, loss aversion, more influenced by the magnitude of the gain-loss, and low influence of immediate elections. The results show the relationship between drug use and the decision-making processes, being consistent with the results obtained in other studies where consumers had worse results than control group. Moreover, the PVL parameters allow to adequately characterize decision-making. This confirms the relationship between drug use and decision-making by either the vulnerability prior to consumption or the neurotoxicity of drugs.

Electrical Stimulation of Lateral Habenula during Learning: Frequency-Dependent Effects on Acquisition but Not Retrieval of a Two-Way Active Avoidance Response

PubMed Central

Wetzel, Wolfram; Scheich, Henning; Ohl, Frank W.

2013-01-01

The lateral habenula (LHb) is an epithalamic structure involved in signaling reward omission and aversive stimuli, and it inhibits dopaminergic neurons during motivated behavior. Less is known about LHb involvement in the acquisition and retrieval of avoidance learning. Our previous studies indicated that brief electrical stimulation of the LHb, time-locked to the avoidance of aversive footshock (presumably during the positive affective “relief” state that occurs when an aversive outcome is averted), inhibited the acquisition of avoidance learning. In the present study, we used the same paradigm to investigate different frequencies of LHb stimulation. The effect of 20 Hz vs. 50 Hz vs. 100 Hz stimulation was investigated during two phases, either during acquisition or retrieval in Mongolian gerbils. The results indicated that 50 Hz, but not 20 Hz, was sufficient to produce a long-term impairment in avoidance learning, and was somewhat more effective than 100 Hz in this regard. None of the stimulation parameters led to any effects on retrieval of avoidance learning, nor did they affect general motor activity. This suggests that, at frequencies in excess of the observed tonic firing rates of LHb neurons (>1–20 Hz), LHb stimulation may serve to interrupt the consolidation of new avoidance memories. However, these stimulation parameters are not capable of modifying avoidance memories that have already undergone extensive consolidation. PMID:23840355

Investigating GM Risk Perceptions: A Survey of Anti-GM and Environmental Campaign Group Members

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Clare; Moran, Dominic

2006-01-01

This study investigates how members of anti-GM campaign groups and environment groups perceive the risks and benefits of genetically modified (GM) technology in food and agriculture. The study targeted these groups as the most risk-averse sector of society when considering GM technology. Survey respondents were asked to rank the current and future…

Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission Command

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-25

military decision making process (MDMP). Other changes to structure reveal administrative and safety risk information (i.e. personal operated vehicle... decision making , it requires commanders to have the capacity to make an informed , intuitive decision . Uncertainty...analysis. His situation required him to embrace uncertainty, and exercise an informed intuition to make a risk decision to create opportunity

Failing Safely: Increasing Theology and Religious Studies Students' Resilience and Academic Confidence via Risk-Taking in Formative Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornwall, Susannah

2018-01-01

Students increasingly appear anxious, risk-averse, and worried about getting things "wrong." They may appear to lack intellectual curiosity, and be unwilling to engage in independent study. This essay explores how teaching and assessment in theology and religious studies might help students learn to take intellectual risks, and increase…

How Much Is that Exam Grade Really Worth? An Estimation of Student Risk Aversion to Their Unknown Final College Course Grades

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nalley, Lanier; McKenzie, Andrew

2011-01-01

This study created an experimental design with which students can empirically assess their risk behavior with respect to exam grades within an expected utility framework. Specifically, the authors analyzed students' risk preferences associated with taking exams and earning a "risky" unknown grade versus not taking exams and instead…

[German Language Version and Validation of the Risk-Taking Behaviour Scale (RBS-K) for High-Risk Sports].

PubMed

Frühauf, Anika; Niedermeier, Martin; Ruedl, Gerhard; Barlow, Matthew; Woodman, Tim; Kopp, Martin

2017-11-23

Background  High-risk sports, particularly climbing, kayaking and extreme skiing, have become increasingly popular. The most widely used psychological survey instrument with regard to risk behaviour in sports is the Sensation Seeking Model, mostly assessed by the Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS-V). Until recently, the literature discussed risk behaviour solely through this model. However, this scale does not measure risk-taking behaviours. In contrast, the Risk-Taking Behaviour Scale (RBS-K) is a three-item scale that measures risk behaviour in high-risk sports. This study aimed to validate a German language version of the RBS-K. Methods  The RBS-K was translated and back-translated between English and German. High-risk sports participants (n = 2399) completed the German version of the RBS-K. Of those participants, 820 completed the RBS-K in person as part of a field survey and 1579 participated in an online survey. To validate the questionnaire, the SSS-V, accident involvement, age and sex were evaluated. The RBS-K divides the sample into deliberate risk takers (mean + standard deviation) and risk-averse persons (mean - standard deviation). We tested for internal consistency and correlations with SSS-V, age, sex and accident involvement. Group differences were calculated between deliberate risk takers and risk-averse persons. Results  For internal consistency, we obtained a Cronbach's alpha of 0.56 and a McDonald's omega of 0.63. Significant correlations were shown between RBS-K and SSS-V as well as age and sex. Compared to risk-averse persons (n = 643, 26.8 %), deliberate risk takers (n = 319, 13.3 %) scored significantly higher in sensation seeking, were significantly younger and primarily male and had a significantly higher accident involvement. Conclusion  The RBS-K discriminates well for age, sex and accident involvement. Also, correlations between the RBS-K and the well-established SSS-V are acceptable. With regard to the results and its compact design, the scale seems to be well suited for field surveys. We discuss the relatively modest internal consistency in the context of the small number of items and the different dimensions of risk-taking. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Suboptimal nutrient balancing despite dietary choice in glucose-averse German cockroaches, Blattella germanica.

PubMed

Jensen, Kim; Schal, Coby; Silverman, Jules

2015-10-01

Insects have evolved fine-tuned gustatory and post-ingestive physiological mechanisms that enable them to self-select an optimal composition of macronutrients. Their ability to forage optimally among multiple food sources and maximize fitness parameters depends on their ability not only to taste and perceive the nutritional value of potential foods but also to avoid deleterious components; the strength of such avoidance should reflect the severity of the perceived hazard. In German cockroaches (Blattella germanica), glucose aversion has evolved in some populations in response to anthropogenic selection with glucose-containing insecticidal baits. In four feeding treatments, we gave newly eclosed glucose-averse female cockroaches free choice to feed from two artificial, nutritionally complementary foods varying in protein and carbohydrate composition, with glucose or fructose as the sole carbohydrate source in either food. After 6days of feeding, we measured diet consumption and the length of basal oocytes as an estimate of sexual maturation. The females did not compromise on their aversion to glucose in order to balance their protein and carbohydrate intake, and experienced lower sexual maturation rates as a consequence. Nutrient specific hunger via feedback mechanisms, and adjustments to gustatory sensitivity thus do not override the deterrence of glucose, likely due to strong selection against ingesting even small amounts of toxin associated with glucose in baits. In the absence of baits, glucose aversion would be expected to incur a fitness cost compared to wild-type individuals due to lower overall food availability but also to larger difficulty in attaining a nutritionally balanced diet. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of systemic risk in the real estate sector on banking return.

PubMed

Li, Shouwei; Pan, Qing; He, Jianmin

2016-01-01

In this paper, we measure systemic risk in the real estate sector based on contingent claims analysis, and then investigate its impact on banking return. Based on the data in China, we find that systemic risk in the real estate sector has a negative effect on banking return, but this effect is temporary; banking risk aversion and implicit interest expense have considerable impact on banking return.

Hippocampal-dependent memory in the plus-maze discriminative avoidance task: The role of spatial cues and CA1 activity.

PubMed

Leão, Anderson H F F; Medeiros, André M; Apolinário, Gênedy K S; Cabral, Alícia; Ribeiro, Alessandra M; Barbosa, Flávio F; Silva, Regina H

2016-05-01

The plus-maze discriminative avoidance task (PMDAT) has been used to investigate interactions between aversive memory and an anxiety-like response in rodents. Suitable performance in this task depends on the activity of the basolateral amygdala, similar to other aversive-based memory tasks. However, the role of spatial cues and hippocampal-dependent learning in the performance of PMDAT remains unknown. Here, we investigated the role of proximal and distal cues in the retrieval of this task. Animals tested under misplaced proximal cues had diminished performance, and animals tested under both misplaced proximal cues and absent distal cues could not discriminate the aversive arm. We also assessed the role of the dorsal hippocampus (CA1) in this aversive memory task. Temporary bilateral inactivation of dorsal CA1 was conducted with muscimol (0.05 μg, 0.1 μg, and 0.2 μg) prior to the training session. While the acquisition of the task was not altered, muscimol impaired the performance in the test session and reduced the anxiety-like response in the training session. We also performed a spreading analysis of a fluorophore-conjugated muscimol to confirm selective inhibition of CA1. In conclusion, both distal and proximal cues are required to retrieve the task, with the latter being more relevant to spatial orientation. Dorsal CA1 activity is also required for aversive memory formation in this task, and interfered with the anxiety-like response as well. Importantly, both effects were detected by different parameters in the same paradigm, endorsing the previous findings of independent assessment of aversive memory and anxiety-like behavior in the PMDAT. Taken together, these findings suggest that the PMDAT probably requires an integration of multiple systems for memory formation, resembling an episodic-like memory rather than a pure conditioning behavior. Furthermore, the concomitant and independent assessment of emotionality and memory in rodents is relevant to elucidate how these memory systems interact during aversive memory formation. Thus, the PMDAT can be useful for studying hippocampal-dependent memory when it involves emotional content. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distributional preferences and competitive behavior☆

PubMed Central

Balafoutas, Loukas; Kerschbamer, Rudolf; Sutter, Matthias

2012-01-01

We study experimentally the relationship between distributional preferences and competitive behavior. We find that spiteful subjects react strongest to competitive pressure and win in a tournament significantly more often than efficiency-minded and inequality averse subjects. However, when given the choice between a tournament and a piece rate scheme, efficiency-minded subjects choose the tournament most often, while spiteful and inequality averse subjects avoid it. When controlling for distributional preferences, risk attitudes and past performance, the gender gap in the willingness to compete is no longer significant, indicating that gender-related variables explain why twice as many men as women self-select into competition. PMID:23576829

Intergenerational transfer of time and risk preferences

PubMed Central

Brown, Heather; van der Pol, Marjon

2015-01-01

There is a growing interest in individual time and risk preferences. Little is known about how these preferences are formed. It is hypothesised that parents may transmit their preferences to their offspring. This paper examines the correlation in offspring and parental time and risk preferences using data from an annual household survey in Australia (the HILDA survey). Both time and risk preferences are examined and we explored whether the correlation in time and risk preferences varies across the distribution of preferences and across the across the four parent–child dyads (mother/daughter, mother/son, father/daughter, father/son). The results show that there is a significant relationship between parents and their young adult offspring risk and time preference measures. The correlation varies across the distribution of time preferences. The correlation was largest for longer planning horizons. Risk averse parents are more likely to have risk averse children. Except for the father/daughter dyad risk seeking parents are more likely to have risk seeking offspring. Some gender differences were found. The association in parental and offspring time preference was larger for mothers than fathers. Daughters are more likely to be influenced by their mother’s risk preferences, however, sons are equally influenced by both parents. The results of this study suggest that the transmission in preferences is more nuanced than previously thought and parental gender may be important. PMID:26412913

Neuro-economics in chicks: foraging choices based on amount, delay and cost.

PubMed

Matsushima, Toshiya; Kawamori, Ai; Bem-Sojka, Tiaza

2008-06-15

Studies on the foraging choices are reviewed, with an emphasis on the neural representations of elementary factors of food (i.e., amount, delay and consumption time) in the avian brain. Domestic chicks serve as an ideal animal model in this respect, as they quickly associate cue colors with subsequently supplied food rewards, and their choices are quantitatively linked with the rewards. When a pair of such color cues was simultaneously presented, the trained chicks reliably made choices according to the profitability of food associated with each color. Two forebrain regions are involved in distinct aspects of choices; i.e., nucleus accumbens-medial striatum (Ac-MSt) and arcopallium intermedium (AI), an association area in the lateral forebrain. Localized lesions of Ac-MSt enhanced delay aversion, and the ablated chicks made impulsive choices of immediate reward more frequently than sham controls. On the other hand, lesions of AI enhanced consumption-time aversion, and the ablated chicks shifted their choices toward easily consumable reward with their impulsiveness unchanged; delay and consumption time are thus doubly dissociated. Furthermore, chicks showed distinct patterns of risk-sensitive choices depending on the factor that varied at trials. Risk aversion occurred when food amount varied, whereas consistent risk sensitivity was not found when the delay varied; amount and delay were not interchangeable. Choices are thus deviated from those predicted as optima. Instead, factors such as amount, delay and consumption time could be separately represented and processed to yield economically sub-optimal choices.

The Demise of Decision Making: How Information Superiority Degrades Our Ability to Make Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-20

studied the topic of risk in relation to decision making. In fact, Daniel Bernoulli produced findings in 1738 connecting risk aversion to wealth and...determined that they were stalled for some reason and not fighting. 34 Angry of this unplanned halt and potential loss of momentum , Franks sought answers

Framing effects in group investment decision making: role of group polarization.

PubMed

Cheng, Pi-Yueh; Chiou, Wen-Bin

2008-02-01

Prospect theory proposes that framing effects result in a preference for risk-averse choices in gain situations and risk-seeking choices in loss situations. However, in group polarization situations, groups show a pronounced tendency to shift toward more extreme positions than those they initially held. Whether framing effects in group decision making are more prominent as a result of the group-polarization effect was examined. Purposive sampling of 120 college students (57 men, 63 women; M age = 20.1 yr., SD = 0.9) allowed assessment of relative preference between cautious and risky choices in individual and group decisions. Findings indicated that both group polarization and framing effects occur in investment decisions. More importantly, group decisions in a gain situation appear to be more cautious, i.e., risk averse, than individual decisions, whereas group decisions in the loss situation appear to be more risky than individual decisions. Thus, group decision making may expand framing effects when it comes to investment choices through group polarization.

Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: what does it actually imply?

PubMed Central

Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

2017-01-01

Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed. PMID:27288541

Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: What does it actually imply?

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

2016-09-07

Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of vaccination strategies via projected dynamical systems.

PubMed

Cojocaru, Monica-Gabriela; Bauch, Chris T; Johnston, Matthew D

2007-07-01

Previous game theoretical analyses of vaccinating behaviour have underscored the strategic interaction between individuals attempting to maximise their health states, in situations where an individual's health state depends upon the vaccination decisions of others due to the presence of herd immunity. Here, we extend such analyses by applying the theories of variational inequalities (VI) and projected dynamical systems (PDS) to vaccination games. A PDS provides a dynamics that gives the conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability properties of Nash equilibria. In this paper, it is used to analyse the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour in a population consisting of distinct social groups, where each group has different perceptions of vaccine and disease risks. In particular, we study populations with two groups, where the size of one group is strictly larger than the size of the other group (a majority/minority population). We find that a population with a vaccine-inclined majority group and a vaccine-averse minority group exhibits higher average vaccine coverage than the corresponding homogeneous population, when the vaccine is perceived as being risky relative to the disease. Our model also reproduces a feature of real populations: In certain parameter regimes, it is possible to have a majority group adopting high vaccination rates and simultaneously a vaccine-averse minority group adopting low vaccination rates. Moreover, we find that minority groups will tend to exhibit more extreme changes in vaccinating behaviour for a given change in risk perception, in comparison to majority groups. These results emphasise the important role played by social heterogeneity in vaccination behaviour, while also highlighting the valuable role that can be played by PDS and VI in mathematical epidemiology.

What Did Schools Experience from Participating in a Randomised Controlled Study (PLAY) That Prioritised Risk and Challenge in Active Play for Children While at School?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farmer, Victoria L.; Fitzgerald, Ruth P.; Williams, Sheila M.; Mann, Jim I.; Schofield, Grant; McPhee, Julia C.; Taylor, Rachael W.

2017-01-01

"Risky" play is an important component of play, which positively affects the cognitive, social and emotional development of children. However, a growing culture of "risk aversion" may be limiting the degree of risk that children are allowed to encounter. We undertook qualitative interviews with eight schools to examine the…

Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

2017-01-01

Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

Natural Disasters and Adaptive Capacity. OECD Development Centre Working Paper No. 237

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dayton-Johnson, Jeff

2004-01-01

Natural disasters (droughts, earthquakes, epidemics, floods, wind storms) damage wellbeing, both in their immediate and long-term aftermath, and because the insecurity of exposure to disasters is in itself harmful to risk-averse people. As such, mitigating and coping with the risk of natural disasters is a pressing issue for economic development.…

Engineering Decisions Under Risk-Averseness

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-13

Y (x′) may be different, especially in the critical upper tail. For example, if Y (x) = g(x,V ) = 100− xV1 − (1− x)V2, where V1 is normally...Econometrica, 47:263–291, 1979. [16] K. Kalinchenko, S. Uryasev, and R.T. Rockafellar. Calibrating risk preferences with generalized CAPM based on mixed

Reacting to Crises: The Risk-Averse Nature of Contemporary American Public Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moran, Peter

2015-01-01

Over the past several decades, numerous arguments have been made advancing the notion that the failings of the public education system in the United States have placed the nation's national security or economic prosperity at risk. This article will examine some of these "crises" and explore how arguments claiming that the shortcomings of…

Therapeutic Decisions in Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity and Physicians' Risk Preferences.

PubMed

Sposato, Luciano A; Stirling, Devin; Saposnik, Gustavo

2018-04-09

Knowledge-to-action gaps influence therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF). Physician-related factors are common, but the least studied. We evaluated the prevalence and determinants of physician-related factors and knowledge-to-action gaps among physicians involved in the management of AF patients. In this cross-sectional study, participants from 6 South American countries recruited during an educational program answered questions regarding 16 case scenarios of patients with AF and completed experiments assessing 3 outcome measures: therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification knowledge translated into action (ERSKTA) based on commonly used stratification tools (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years (double), Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (double), Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, and female gender (score of 0 for males and 1 for female) (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, and previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack (double) (CHADS 2 )). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with the outcomes. Overall, 149 physicians were invited to participate, of which 88 (59.1%) completed the online assessment tool. Cardiology was the most frequent specialty (69.3%). Therapeutic inertia was present in 53 participants (60.2%), herding in 66 (75.0%), and ERSKTA in 46 (52.3%). Therapeutic inertia was inversely associated with willingness to take financial risks (odds ratio [OR] .72, 95% confidence interval [CI] .59-.89 per point in the financial risk propensity score), herding was associated with aversion to ambiguity in the medical domain (OR 5.35, 95% CI 1.40-20.46), and ERSKTA was associated with the willingness to take risks (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.15-2.50, per point in score). Among physicians involved in stroke prevention in AF, individual risk preferences and aversion to ambiguity lead to therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification and subsequent use of oral anticoagulants. Educational interventions, including formal training in risk management and decision-making are needed. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The origin of bounded rationality and intelligence.

PubMed

Lo, Andrew W

2013-09-01

Rational economic behavior in which individuals maximize their own self-interest is only one of many possible types of behavior that arise from natural selection. Given an initial population of individuals, each assigned a purely arbitrary behavior with respect to a binary choice problem, and assuming that offspring behave identically to their parents, only those behaviors linked to reproductive success will survive, and less successful behaviors will disappear exponentially fast. This framework yields a single evolutionary explanation for the origin of several behaviors that have been observed in organisms ranging from bacteria to humans, including risk-sensitive foraging, risk aversion, loss aversion, probability matching, randomization, and diversification. The key to understanding which types of behavior are more likely to survive is how behavior affects reproductive success in a given population's environment. From this perspective, intelligence is naturally defined as behavior that increases the likelihood of reproductive success, and bounds on rationality are determined by physiological and environmental constraints.

Dynamics of Individual and Collective Agricultural Adaptation to Water Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burchfield, E. K.; Gilligan, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought and water scarcity are challenging agricultural systems around the world. We draw on extensive field-work conducted with paddy farmers in rural Sri Lanka to study adaptations to water scarcity, including switching to less water-intensive crops, farming collectively on shared land, and turning to groundwater by digging wells. We explore how variability in climate affects agricultural decision-making at the community and individual levels using three decision-making heuristics, each characterized by an objective function: risk-averse expected utility, regret-adjusted expected utility, and prospect theory loss-aversion. We also assess how the introduction of individualized access to irrigation water with wells affects long-standing community-based drought mitigation practices. Results suggest that the growth of well-irrigation may produce sudden disruptions to community-based adaptations, but that this depends on the mental models farmers use to think about risk and make decisions under uncertainty.

Medicine, morality and health care social media.

PubMed

Timimi, Farris K

2012-08-02

Social media includes many different forms of technology including online forums, blogs, microblogs (i.e. Twitter), wikipedias, video blogs, social networks and podcasting. The use of social media has grown exponentially and time spent on social media sites now represents one in five minutes spent online. Concomitant with this online growth, there has been an inverse trajectory in direct face-to-face patient-provider moments, which continue to become scarcer across the spectrum of health care. In contrast to standard forms of engagement and education, social media has advantages to include profound reach, immediate availability, an archived presence and broad accessibility. Our opportunity as health care providers to partner with our patients has never been greater, yet all too often we allow risk averse fears to limit our ability to truly leverage our good content effectively to the online community. This risk averse behavior truly limits our capacity to effectively engage our patients where they are--online.

Health Security and Risk Aversion.

PubMed

Herington, Jonathan

2016-09-01

Health security has become a popular way of justifying efforts to control catastrophic threats to public health. Unfortunately, there has been little analysis of the concept of health security, nor the relationship between health security and other potential aims of public health policy. In this paper I develop an account of health security as an aversion to risky policy options. I explore three reasons for thinking risk avoidance is a distinctly worthwhile aim of public health policy: (i) that security is intrinsically valuable, (ii) that it is necessary for social planning and (iii) that it is an appropriate response to decision-making in contexts of very limited information. Striking the right balance between securing and maximizing population health thus requires a substantive, and hitherto unrecognized, value judgment. Finally, I critically evaluate the current health security agenda in light of this new account of the concept and its relationship to the other aims of public health policy. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellish, Jonathan A.

2016-01-01

We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

Risk Aversion: As Perceived by U.S. and Swedish Officers

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-10

for Cultural Risk Research at Charles Sturt University Australia. As a constructivist she examines how the concept of risk has been constructed over...that distinguishes one group of people from another (Hofstede 2005, 3ff). Studying differences in culture demands a position of cultural relativism ... relativism analyzes culture on five scales. The terms Hofstede uses for these scales are Power Distance, Individualism, Long-Term Orientation, Uncertainty

Locus coeruleus to basolateral amygdala noradrenergic projections promote anxiety-like behavior.

PubMed

McCall, Jordan G; Siuda, Edward R; Bhatti, Dionnet L; Lawson, Lamley A; McElligott, Zoe A; Stuber, Garret D; Bruchas, Michael R

2017-07-14

Increased tonic activity of locus coeruleus noradrenergic (LC-NE) neurons induces anxiety-like and aversive behavior. While some information is known about the afferent circuitry that endogenously drives this neural activity and behavior, the downstream receptors and anatomical projections that mediate these acute risk aversive behavioral states via the LC-NE system remain unresolved. Here we use a combination of retrograde tracing, fast-scan cyclic voltammetry, electrophysiology, and in vivo optogenetics with localized pharmacology to identify neural substrates downstream of increased tonic LC-NE activity in mice. We demonstrate that photostimulation of LC-NE fibers in the BLA evokes norepinephrine release in the basolateral amygdala (BLA), alters BLA neuronal activity, conditions aversion, and increases anxiety-like behavior. Additionally, we report that β-adrenergic receptors mediate the anxiety-like phenotype of increased NE release in the BLA. These studies begin to illustrate how the complex efferent system of the LC-NE system selectively mediates behavior through distinct receptor and projection-selective mechanisms.

Understanding risk: a guide for the perplexed.

PubMed

Glimcher, Paul W

2008-12-01

Over the course of the past decade, neurobiologists have become increasingly interested in concepts and models imported from economics. Terms such as "risk," "risk aversion," and "utility" have become commonplace in the neuroscientific literature as single-unit physiologists and human cognitive neuroscientists search for the biological correlates of economic theories of value and choice. Among neuroscientists, an incomplete understanding of these concepts has, however, led to a growing confusion that threatens to check the rapid advances in this area. Adding to the confusion, notions of risk have more recently been imported from finance, which employs quite different, although formally related, mathematical tools. Of course, the mixing of economic, financial, and neuroscientific traditions can only be beneficial in the long run, but truly understanding the conceptual machinery of each area is a prerequisite for obtaining that benefit. With that in mind, I present here an overview of economic and financial notions of risk and decision. The article begins with an overview of the classical economic approach to risk, as developed by Bernoulli. It then explains the important differences between the classical tradition and modern neoclassical economic approaches to these same concepts. Finally, I present a very brief overview of the financial tradition and its relation to the economic tradition. For novices, this should provide a reasonable introduction to concepts ranging from "risk aversion" to "risk premiums."

Stress attenuates the flexible updating of aversive value

PubMed Central

Raio, Candace M.; Hartley, Catherine A.; Orederu, Temidayo A.; Li, Jian; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2017-01-01

In a dynamic environment, sources of threat or safety can unexpectedly change, requiring the flexible updating of stimulus−outcome associations that promote adaptive behavior. However, aversive contexts in which we are required to update predictions of threat are often marked by stress. Acute stress is thought to reduce behavioral flexibility, yet its influence on the modulation of aversive value has not been well characterized. Given that stress exposure is a prominent risk factor for anxiety and trauma-related disorders marked by persistent, inflexible responses to threat, here we examined how acute stress affects the flexible updating of threat responses. Participants completed an aversive learning task, in which one stimulus was probabilistically associated with an electric shock, while the other stimulus signaled safety. A day later, participants underwent an acute stress or control manipulation before completing a reversal learning task during which the original stimulus−outcome contingencies switched. Skin conductance and neuroendocrine responses provided indices of sympathetic arousal and stress responses, respectively. Despite equivalent initial learning, stressed participants showed marked impairments in reversal learning relative to controls. Additionally, reversal learning deficits across participants were related to heightened levels of alpha-amylase, a marker of noradrenergic activity. Finally, fitting arousal data to a computational reinforcement learning model revealed that stress-induced reversal learning deficits emerged from stress-specific changes in the weight assigned to prediction error signals, disrupting the adaptive adjustment of learning rates. Our findings provide insight into how stress renders individuals less sensitive to changes in aversive reinforcement and have implications for understanding clinical conditions marked by stress-related psychopathology. PMID:28973957

Interpersonal touch suppresses visual processing of aversive stimuli

PubMed Central

Kawamichi, Hiroaki; Kitada, Ryo; Yoshihara, Kazufumi; Takahashi, Haruka K.; Sadato, Norihiro

2015-01-01

Social contact is essential for survival in human society. A previous study demonstrated that interpersonal contact alleviates pain-related distress by suppressing the activity of its underlying neural network. One explanation for this is that attention is shifted from the cause of distress to interpersonal contact. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a functional MRI (fMRI) study wherein eight pairs of close female friends rated the aversiveness of aversive and non-aversive visual stimuli under two conditions: joining hands either with a rubber model (rubber-hand condition) or with a close friend (human-hand condition). Subsequently, participants rated the overall comfortableness of each condition. The rating result after fMRI indicated that participants experienced greater comfortableness during the human-hand compared to the rubber-hand condition, whereas aversiveness ratings during fMRI were comparable across conditions. The fMRI results showed that the two conditions commonly produced aversive-related activation in both sides of the visual cortex (including V1, V2, and V5). An interaction between aversiveness and hand type showed rubber-hand-specific activation for (aversive > non-aversive) in other visual areas (including V1, V2, V3, and V4v). The effect of interpersonal contact on the processing of aversive stimuli was negatively correlated with the increment of attentional focus to aversiveness measured by a pain-catastrophizing scale. These results suggest that interpersonal touch suppresses the processing of aversive visual stimuli in the occipital cortex. This effect covaried with aversiveness-insensitivity, such that aversive-insensitive individuals might require a lesser degree of attentional capture to aversive-stimulus processing. As joining hands did not influence the subjective ratings of aversiveness, interpersonal touch may operate by redirecting excessive attention away from aversive characteristics of the stimuli. PMID:25904856

Prospect Theory for Online Financial Trading

PubMed Central

Martino, Mauro; Altshuler, Yaniv

2014-01-01

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are typically risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, known as the “reflection effect”. People are much more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same magnitude, a phenomenon called “loss aversion”. Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of the previous studies have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon, which are essential in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the impact of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon. Moreover, we introduce three novel behavioral metrics to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behavior. PMID:25330203

Rats and seabirds: effects of egg size on predation risk and the potential of conditioned taste aversion as a mitigation method.

PubMed

Latorre, Lucía; Larrinaga, Asier R; Santamaría, Luis

2013-01-01

Seabirds nesting on islands are threatened by invasive rodents, such as mice and rats, which may attack eggs, chicks and even adults. The low feasibility of rat eradications on many islands makes the development of alternate control plans necessary. We used a combination of field experiments on a Mediterranean island invaded by black rats (Rattusrattus) to evaluate (1) the predation risk posed to different-sized seabird eggs and (2), the potential of two deterrent methods (electronic and chemical) to reduce its impact. Rats were able to consume eggs of all sizes (12 to 68 g), but survival increased 13 times from the smallest to the largest eggs (which also had more resistant eggshells). Extrapolation to seabird eggs suggests that the smallest species (Hydrobatespelagicus) suffer the most severe predation risk, but even the largest (Larusmichahellis) could suffer >60% mortality. Nest attack was not reduced by the deterrents. However, chemical deterrence (conditioned taste aversion by lithium chloride) slowed the increase in predation rate over time, which resulted in a three-fold increase in egg survival to predation as compared to both control and electronic deterrence. At the end of the experimental period, this effect was confirmed by a treatment swap, which showed that conferred protection remains at least 15 days after cessation of the treatment. Results indicate that small seabird species are likely to suffer severe rates of nest predation by rats and that conditioned taste aversion, but not electronic repellents, may represent a suitable method to protect colonies when eradication or control is not feasible or cost-effective.

“Gaining or losing”: The importance of the perspective in primary care health services valuation

PubMed Central

Ariza-Cardiel, Gloria; Peña-Longobardo, Luz Mª; Polentinos-Castro, Elena; Oliva-Moreno, Juan; Gil-Lacruz, Ana Isabel; Medina-Palomino, Héctor; del Cura-González, Isabel

2017-01-01

Rationale and objectives Economic theory classifies an intervention as socially beneficial if the total Willingness to Pay (WTP) of those who gain exceeds the total Willingness to accept (WTA) of those who are harmed. This paper examines the differences in health system users’ valuation of a health care service in primary care setting based on the WTP and WTA perspectives, discussing the impact of personal and service variables, including risk attitudes, on these disparities. Method Six hundred and sixty two subjects who asked for care in health centres in the Region of Madrid (Spain) were interviewed, using the contingent valuation method to estimate WTP and WTA. Patient sociodemographic characteristics, health needs, satisfaction with the service and risk attitude and behaviour under risk (measured by self-reported scales and lottery games respectively) were collected. Generalised Linear Models were used to estimate the association between the explanatory variables and the WTA/WTP ratio. Results We obtained the WTA/WTP ratio for 570 subjects (mean 1.66 CI 95%: 1.53–1.79; median 1, interquartile range 1–2). People with higher education or in high social groups expressed WTA values closest to WTP. The opposite occurred in patients with the greatest health needs or who were born abroad. Self-reported expression of risk aversion appeared also related to increases in the WTA/WTP ratio. Satisfaction with the service evaluated was the most influential factor in the WTA/WTP ratio. Conclusion Health need, difficulty in obtaining substitutes and satisfaction with the service could serve for profiling people averse to loss for health care services in primary care setting. Self-reported expression of risk aversion could also be related to increases in the WTA/WTP ratio. This would mean that these characteristics should be taken into account both in the design and implementation of new healthcare interventions, as in the making decision for disinvestment. PMID:29206847

"Gaining or losing": The importance of the perspective in primary care health services valuation.

PubMed

Martín-Fernández, Jesús; Ariza-Cardiel, Gloria; Peña-Longobardo, Luz Mª; Polentinos-Castro, Elena; Oliva-Moreno, Juan; Gil-Lacruz, Ana Isabel; Medina-Palomino, Héctor; Del Cura-González, Isabel

2017-01-01

Economic theory classifies an intervention as socially beneficial if the total Willingness to Pay (WTP) of those who gain exceeds the total Willingness to accept (WTA) of those who are harmed. This paper examines the differences in health system users' valuation of a health care service in primary care setting based on the WTP and WTA perspectives, discussing the impact of personal and service variables, including risk attitudes, on these disparities. Six hundred and sixty two subjects who asked for care in health centres in the Region of Madrid (Spain) were interviewed, using the contingent valuation method to estimate WTP and WTA. Patient sociodemographic characteristics, health needs, satisfaction with the service and risk attitude and behaviour under risk (measured by self-reported scales and lottery games respectively) were collected. Generalised Linear Models were used to estimate the association between the explanatory variables and the WTA/WTP ratio. We obtained the WTA/WTP ratio for 570 subjects (mean 1.66 CI 95%: 1.53-1.79; median 1, interquartile range 1-2). People with higher education or in high social groups expressed WTA values closest to WTP. The opposite occurred in patients with the greatest health needs or who were born abroad. Self-reported expression of risk aversion appeared also related to increases in the WTA/WTP ratio. Satisfaction with the service evaluated was the most influential factor in the WTA/WTP ratio. Health need, difficulty in obtaining substitutes and satisfaction with the service could serve for profiling people averse to loss for health care services in primary care setting. Self-reported expression of risk aversion could also be related to increases in the WTA/WTP ratio. This would mean that these characteristics should be taken into account both in the design and implementation of new healthcare interventions, as in the making decision for disinvestment.

Accounting for the economic risk caused by variation in disease severity in fungicide dose decisions, exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat.

PubMed

Te Beest, D E; Paveley, N D; Shaw, M W; van den Bosch, F

2013-07-01

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimizes net costs, on average, across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept "high-loss" years 1 year in 10 or 1 year in 20 (i.e., specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on Septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over 3 years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of high-loss years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease-resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

How to make loss aversion disappear and reverse: tests of the decision by sampling origin of loss aversion.

PubMed

Walasek, Lukasz; Stewart, Neil

2015-02-01

One of the most robust empirical findings in the behavioral sciences is loss aversion--the finding that losses loom larger than gains. We offer a new psychological explanation of the origins of loss aversion in which loss aversion emerges from differences in the distribution of gains and losses people experience. In 4 experiments, we tested this proposition by manipulating the range of gains and losses that individuals saw during the process of eliciting their loss aversion. We were able to find loss aversion, loss neutrality, and even the reverse of loss aversion.

Clinical implications of risk aversion: an online study of risk-avoidance and treatment utilization in pathological anxiety.

PubMed

Lorian, Carolyn N; Grisham, Jessica R

2011-08-01

Previous research suggests that the pervasive tendency to avoid perceived risks (i.e., the safety bias) may be implicated in the maintenance of pathological anxiety. These studies have not explored, however, the potential clinical implications of such a bias, such as the influence of risk aversion on treatment seeking. The aim of this study was to investigate how risk-avoidance is related to willingness to seek treatment in an online sample of clinically anxious individuals with social phobia (SP), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Healthy control participants (n=117) and those endorsing criteria for one or more anxiety disorder(s) (n=92; SP, n=33; OCD, n=19; GAD, n=40) were recruited from various online sources. Respondents completed an online survey comprised of a validated diagnostic interview, self-report measures assessing for symptom severity, risk-taking across various domains, a generalized index of risk-taking and treatment utilization. Consistent with hypotheses, SP and GAD individuals reported significantly more risk-avoidance when compared to non-clinical controls. Furthermore, willingness to seek treatment was found to be positively associated with social risk-taking and generalized risk-taking orientation in clinically anxious individuals who had never sought treatment. These results suggest that certain individual cognitive factors may contribute to the decision to seek treatment and may provide an interesting avenue of future investigation for increasing service utilization and treatment seeking in anxious populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Activation of the prefrontal cortex by unilateral transcranial direct current stimulation leads to an asymmetrical effect on risk preference in frames of gain and loss.

PubMed

Ye, Hang; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Zheng, Haoli; Luo, Jun; Chen, Shu

2016-10-01

Previous brain imaging and brain stimulation studies have suggested that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex may be critical in regulating risk-taking behavior, although its specific causal effect on people's risk preference remains controversial. This paper studied the independent modulation of the activity of the right and left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex using various configurations of transcranial direct current stimulation. We designed a risk-measurement table and adopted a within-subject design to compare the same participant's risk preference before and after unilateral stimulation when presented with different frames of gain and loss. The results confirmed a hemispheric asymmetry and indicated that the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex has an asymmetric effect on risk preference regarding frames of gain and loss. Enhancing the activity of the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex significantly decreased the participants' degree of risk aversion in the gain frame, whereas it increased the participants' degree of risk aversion in the loss frame. Our findings provide important information regarding the impact of transcranial direct current stimulation on the risk preference of healthy participants. The effects observed in our experiment compared with those of previous studies provide further evidence of the effects of hemispheric and frame-dependent asymmetry. These findings may be helpful in understanding the neural basis of risk preference in humans, especially when faced with decisions involving possible gain or loss relative to the status quo. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On "black swans" and "perfect storms": risk analysis and management when statistics are not enough.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth

2012-11-01

Two images, "black swans" and "perfect storms," have struck the public's imagination and are used--at times indiscriminately--to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images represent two distinct types of uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory). Existing statistics are often insufficient to support risk management because the sample may be too small and the system may have changed. Rationality as defined by the von Neumann axioms leads to a combination of both types of uncertainties into a single probability measure--Bayesian probability--and accounts only for risk aversion. Yet, the decisionmaker may also want to be ambiguity averse. This article presents an engineering risk analysis perspective on the problem, using all available information in support of proactive risk management decisions and considering both types of uncertainty. These measures involve monitoring of signals, precursors, and near-misses, as well as reinforcement of the system and a thoughtful response strategy. It also involves careful examination of organizational factors such as the incentive system, which shape human performance and affect the risk of errors. In all cases, including rare events, risk quantification does not allow "prediction" of accidents and catastrophes. Instead, it is meant to support effective risk management rather than simply reacting to the latest events and headlines. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Financial Cost of Export Credit Guarantee Programs,

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-06-01

a percentage of a high esti- mate of payments due. Table A.5 RATIOS, TERMS, AND RECOVERY RATES Item Hermes ECGD COFACE Eximbank Ratio of outstanding...Immediate Liquidation Case ...... 8 2. Income Statement: Hold to Maturity, Certain Repayment ................................... 9 3. Income Statement: Hold ...to Maturity, Uncertain Repayment, Risk Neutrality .................... 10 4. Income Statement: Hold to Maturity, Uncertain Repayment, Risk Aversion

Decision-making, financial risk aversion, and behavioral biases: The role of testosterone and stress.

PubMed

Nofsinger, John R; Patterson, Fernando M; Shank, Corey A

2018-05-01

We examine the relation between testosterone, cortisol, and financial decisions in a sample of naïve investors. We find that testosterone level is positively related to excess risk-taking, whereas cortisol level is negatively related to excess risk-taking (correlation coefficient [r]: 0.75 and -0.21, respectively). Additionally, we find support for the dual-hormone hypothesis in a financial context. Specifically, the testosterone-to-cortisol ratio is significantly related to loss aversion. Individuals with a higher ratio are 3.4 times more likely to sell losing stocks (standard error [SE]: 1.63). Furthermore, we find a positive feedback loop between financial success, testosterone, and cortisol. Specifically, financial success is significantly related to higher post-trial testosterone and cortisol by a factor of 0.53 (SE: 0.14). Finally, we find that in a competitive environment, testosterone level increases significantly, leading to greater risk-taking than in noncompetitive environment. Overall, this study underscores the importance of the endocrine system on financial decision-making. The results of this study are relevant to a broad audience, including investors looking to optimize financial performance, industry human resources, market regulators, and researchers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar; Venkat, Ibrahim; Wilde, Philippe De

2017-08-01

Pedestrian movements in crowd motion can be perceived in terms of agents who basically exhibit patient or impatient behavior. We model crowd motion subject to exit congestion under uncertainty conditions in a continuous space and compare the proposed model via simulations with the classical social force model. During a typical emergency evacuation scenario, agents might not be able to perceive with certainty the strategies of opponents (other agents) owing to the dynamic changes entailed by the neighborhood of opponents. In such uncertain scenarios, agents will try to update their strategy based on their own rules or their intrinsic behavior. We study risk seeking, risk averse and risk neutral behaviors of such agents via certain game theory notions. We found that risk averse agents tend to achieve faster evacuation time whenever the time delay in conflicts appears to be longer. The results of our simulations also comply with previous work and conform to the fact that evacuation time of agents becomes shorter once mutual cooperation among agents is achieved. Although the impatient strategy appears to be the rational strategy that might lead to faster evacuation times, our study scientifically shows that the more the agents are impatient, the slower is the egress time.

Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

PubMed

Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

2011-06-01

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

Teaching Bitter Lessons: China’s Use of Force in Territorial Disputes 1962-1988

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

and risk mitigation efforts, followed by an overall analysis of Chinese behavior during the war. The Military Engagement...behave reasonably. In fact, China’s leader’s reasoning on strategic issues can be described as thoughtful, deliberative, and risk aware. Mao said...Chinese behavior during the Sino-Indo war of 1962 suggests the following: 1) China appeared to be risk averse in that it did not desire a conflict

Who Dares, Who Errs? Disentangling Cognitive and Motivational Roots of Age Differences in Decisions Under Risk.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Mata, Rui; Hertwig, Ralph

2017-04-01

We separate for the first time the roles of cognitive and motivational factors in shaping age differences in decision making under risk. Younger and older adults completed gain, loss, and mixed-domain choice problems as well as measures of cognitive functioning and affect. The older adults' decision quality was lower than the younger adults' in the loss domain, and this age difference was attributable to the older adults' lower cognitive abilities. In addition, the older adults chose the more risky option more often than the younger adults in the gain and mixed domains; this difference in risk aversion was attributable to less pronounced negative affect among the older adults. Computational modeling with a hierarchical Bayesian implementation of cumulative prospect theory revealed that the older adults had higher response noise and more optimistic decision weights for gains than did the younger adults. Moreover, the older adults showed no loss aversion, a finding that supports a positivity-focus (rather than a loss-prevention) view of motivational reorientation in older age.

A potential gender bias in assessing quality of life - a standard gamble experiment among university students.

PubMed

Obaidi, Leath Al; Mahlich, Jörg

2015-01-01

There are several methodologies that can be used for evaluating patients' perception of their quality of life. Most commonly, utilities are directly elicited by means of either the time-trade-off or the standard-gamble method. In both methods, risk attitudes determine the quality of life values. Quality of life values among 31 Austrian undergraduate students were elicited by means of the standard gamble approach. The impact of several variables such as gender, side job, length of study, and living arrangements on the quality of life were identified using different types of regression techniques (ordinary least squares, generalized linear model, Betafit). Significant evidence was found that females are associated with a higher quality of life in all specifications of our estimations. The observed gender differences in quality of life can be attributed to a higher degree of risk aversion of women. A higher risk aversion leads to a higher valuation of given health states and a potential gender bias in health economic evaluations. This result could have implications for health policy planners when it comes to budget allocation decisions.

The involvement of CRF1 receptor within the basolateral amygdala and dentate gyrus in the naloxone-induced conditioned place aversion in morphine-dependent mice.

PubMed

Valero, E; Gómez-Milanés, I; Almela, P; Ribeiro Do Couto, B; Laorden, M L; Milanés, M V; Núñez, C

2018-06-08

Drug withdrawal-associated aversive memories trigger relapse to drug-seeking behavior. Corticotrophin-releasing factor (CRF) is an important mediator of the reinforcing properties of drugs of abuse. However, the involvement of CRF1 receptor (CRF1R) in aversive memory induced by opiate withdrawal has yet to be elucidated. We used the conditioned-place aversion (CPA) paradigm to evaluate the role of CRF1R on opiate withdrawal memory acquisition, along with plasticity-related processes that occur after CPA within the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and dentate gyrus (DG). Male mice were rendered dependent on morphine and injected acutely with naloxone before paired to confinement in a naloxone-associated compartment. The CPA scores as well as the number of TH-positive neurons (in the NTS-A2 noradrenergic cell group), and the expression of the transcription factors Arc and pCREB (in the BLA and DG) were measured with and without CRF1R blockade. Mice subjected to conditioned naloxone-induced morphine withdrawal robustly expressed CPA. Pre-treatment with the selective CRF1R antagonist CP-154,526 before naloxone conditioning session impaired morphine withdrawal-induced aversive memory acquisition. CP-154,526 also antagonized the enhanced number of TH-positive neurons in the NTS-A2 that was seen after CPA. Increased Arc expression and Arc-pCREB co-localization were seen in the BLA after CPA, which was not modified by CP-154,526. In the DG, CPA was accompanied by a decrease of Arc expression and no changes in Arc-pCREB co-localization, whereas pre-treatment with CP-154,526 induced an increase in both parameters. These results indicate that CRF-CRF1R pathway could be a critical factor governing opiate withdrawal memory storage and retrieval and might suggest a role for TH-NA pathway in the effects of withdrawal on memory. Our results might indicate that the blockade of CRF1R could represent a promising pharmacological treatment strategy approach for the attenuation of the relapse to drug-seeking/taking behavior triggered by opiate withdrawal-associated aversive memories. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Addendum to ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa; Markandya, Anil; María Abadie, Luis

2018-02-01

This addendum adds to the analysis presented in ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’ Abadie et al (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 014017). We propose to use the framework developed earlier to enhance communication and understanding of risks, with the aim of bridging the gap between highly technical risk management discussion to the public risk aversion debate. We also propose that the framework could be used for stress-testing resilience.

Repeated sensory contact with aggressive mice rapidly leads to an anticipatory increase in core body temperature and physical activity that precedes the onset of aversive responding.

PubMed

Pardon, Marie-Christine; Kendall, David A; Pérez-Diaz, Fernando; Duxon, Mark S; Marsden, Charles A

2004-08-01

The present study investigated whether the 'psychological threat' induced by sensory contact with an aggressive conspecific would be a sufficient factor in inducing behavioural and physiological disturbances. Repeated sensory contact with an aggressive mouse (social threat) in a partitioned cage was compared with repeated exposure to a novel partitioned cage in male NMRI mice. We first examined parameters of stress responsiveness (body weight, plasma corticosterone levels, frequency of self-grooming and defecation). The temperature and physical activity responses to stress were also recorded during and after the 4 weeks of stress using radiotelemetry. Finally, cognitivo-emotional performance was assessed after acute stress and 2 and 4 weeks of stress by measuring decision making, sequential alternation performance and behaviour in the elevated T-maze. Social threat had a greater impact than novel cage exposure on most parameters of stress responsiveness, although mice did not habituate to either stressor. Social threat rapidly led to an anticipatory rise in core body temperature and physical activity before the scheduled stress sessions. Such anticipation developed within the first week and persisted for 9 days after ending the stress procedure. Some memory impairment in the sequential alternation test was found in stressed mice, independent of the stressor. After 4 weeks of stress, inhibitory avoidance in the elevated T-maze was enhanced in socially stressed mice and reduced in novel cage mice. The sustained anticipation of stress in the social threat group preceded aversive responding. It remains to be established whether anticipation contributes to the development of aversive responses.

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Adolescent Social Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loeb, Emily; Hessel, Elenda T.; Allen, Joseph

2016-01-01

Adolescents' negative social expectations of their peers were examined as long-term predictors of problematic self-reported social functioning. Early adolescent negative expectations were hypothesized to predict risk-averse functioning in late adolescence that would ultimately contribute to confirmation of those expectations. Utilizing…

Transcranial direct current stimulation over prefrontal cortex diminishes degree of risk aversion.

PubMed

Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Jia, Yongmin; Luo, Jun

2015-06-26

Previous studies have established that transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a powerful technique for manipulating the activity of the human cerebral cortex. Many studies have found that weighing the risks and benefits in decision-making involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). We studied whether participants change the balance of risky and safe responses after receiving tDCS applied over the right and left prefrontal cortex. A total of 60 healthy volunteers performed a risk task while they received either anodal tDCS over the right prefrontal cortex, with cathodal over the left; anodal tDCS over the left prefrontal cortex, with cathodal over the right; or sham stimulation. The participants tended to choose less risky options after receiving sham stimulation, demonstrating that the task might be highly influenced by the "wealth effect". There was no statistically significant change after either right anodal/left cathodal or left anodal/right cathodal tDCS, indicating that both types of tDCS impact the participants' degrees of risk aversion, and therefore, counteract the wealth effect. We also found gender differences in the participants' choices. These findings extend the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for risk decision-making. Application of tDCS to the right/left DLPFC may impact a person's attitude to taking risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of incorporating environmental cost and risk aversion on economic values of pig breeding goal traits.

PubMed

Ali, B M; de Mey, Y; Bastiaansen, J W M; Oude Lansink, A G J M

2018-06-01

Economic values (EVs) of traits, accounting for environmental impacts and risk preferences of farmers, are required to design breeding goals that contribute to both economic and environmental sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of incorporating environmental costs and the risk preferences of farmers on the EVs of pig breeding goal traits. A breeding goal consisting of both sow efficiency and production traits was defined for a typical Brazilian farrow-to-finish pig farm with 1,500 productive sows. A mean-variance utility function was employed for deriving the EVs at finishing pig level assuming fixed slaughter weight. The inclusion of risk and risk aversion reduces the economic weights of sow efficiency traits (17%) while increasing the importance of production traits (7%). For a risk-neutral producer, inclusion of environmental cost reduces the economic importance of sow efficiency traits (3%) while increasing the importance of production traits (1%). Genetic changes of breeding goal traits by their genetic standard deviations reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and excretions of nitrogen and phosphorus per finished pig by up to 6% while increasing farm profit. The estimated EVs could be used to improve selection criteria and thereby contribute to the sustainability of pig production systems. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Promoting Affordability in Defense Acquisitions: A Multi-Period Portfolio Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-30

has evolved out of many areas of research, ranging from economics to modern control theory (Powell, 2011). The general form of a dynamic programming...states 5 School of Aeronautics & Astronautics A Portfolio Approach: Background • Balance expected profit (performance) against risk ( variance ) in...investments (Markowitz 1952) • Efficiency frontier of optimal portfolios given investor risk averseness • Extends to multi-period case with various

Engineering Decisions Under Risk-Averseness

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-19

ENGINEERING DECISIONS UNDER RISK-AVERSENESS∗ R. Tyrrell Rockafellar Johannes O. Royset Department of Mathematics Operations Research Department...based upon work supported in part by the U. S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research under grants FA9550-11-1-0206 and F1ATAO1194GOO1. 1 Report...S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School,Operations Research Department,Monterey,CA,93943 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9

Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellermann, Patric; Schönberger, Christine; Thieken, Annegret H.

2016-11-01

Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies

PubMed Central

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.

2015-01-01

People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies—the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping. PMID:26733779

Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies.

PubMed

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

2015-01-01

People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies-the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping.

Aversive and non-aversive memory impairment in the mucopolysaccharidosis II mouse model.

PubMed

Azambuja, Amanda Stapenhorst; Correa, Lilian; Gabiatti, Bernardo Pappi; Martins, Giselle Renata; de Oliveira Franco, Álvaro; Ribeiro, Maria Flávia Marques; Baldo, Guilherme

2018-02-01

Hunter syndrome (MPS II, OMIM 309900) is a lysosomal storage disorder due to deficient iduronate sulphatase activity. Patients present multiple cognitive alterations, and the aim of this work was to verify if MPS II mice also present some progressive cognitive alterations. For that, MPS II mice from 2 to 6 months of age were submitted to repeated open field and inhibitory avoidance tests to evaluate memory parameters. MPS II mice presented impaired memory at 6 months evaluated by open field test. They also performed poorly in the inhibitory avoidance test from 4 months. We conclude that MPS II mice develop cognitive alterations as the disease progresses. These tests can be used in the future to study the efficacy of therapeutic approaches in the central nervous system.

Alcohol-Aversion Therapy: Relation Between Strength of Aversion and Abstinence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cannon, Dale S.; And Others

1986-01-01

Assessed degree of alcohol aversion in 60 alcoholics who received emetic alcohol-aversion therapy. Results revealed changes in response to alcoholic, but not to nonalcoholic, flavors, including decreased consumption in taste tests, more negative flavor ratings, overt behavioral indicants of aversion and increased tachycardiac response. (Author/NB)

Interactions between radiation and amphetamine in taste-aversion learning and the role of the area postrema in amphetamine-induced conditioned taste aversions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rabin, B.M.; Hunt, W.A.; Lee, J.

1987-01-01

Three experiments were run to assess the role of the area postrema in taste-aversion learning resulting from combined treatment with subthreshold unconditioned stimuli and in the acquisition of an amphetamine-induced taste aversion. In the first experiment, it was shown that combined treatment with subthreshold radiation (15 rad) and subthreshold amphetamine (0.5 mg/kg, IP) resulted in the acquisition of a taste aversion. The second experiment showed that lesions of the area postrema blocked taste aversion learning produced by two subthreshold doses of amphetamine. In the third experiment, which looked at the dose-response curve for amphetamine-induced taste aversion learning to intact ratsmore » and rats with area postrema lesions, it was shown that both groups of rats acquired taste aversions following injection of amphetamine, although the rats with lesions showed a less-severe aversion than the intact rats. The results are interpreted as indicating that amphetamine-induced taste-aversion learning may involve area post-remamediated mechanisms, particularly at the lower doses, but an intact area postrema is not a necessary condition of the acquisition of an amphetamine-induced taste aversion.« less

Interactions between radiation and amphetamine in taste aversion learning and the role of the area postrema in amphetamine-induced conditioned taste aversions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rabin, B.M.; Hunt, W.A.; Lee, J.

1987-08-01

Three experiments were run to assess the role of the area postrema in taste aversion learning resulting from combined treatment with subthreshold unconditioned stimuli and in the acquisition of an amphetamine-induced taste aversion. In the first experiment, it was shown that combined treatment with subthreshold radiation (15 rad) and subthreshold amphetamine (0.5 mg/kg, IP) resulted in the acquisition of a taste aversion. The second experiment showed that lesions of the area postrema blocked taste aversion learning produced by two subthreshold doses of amphetamine. In the third experiment, which looked at the dose-response curve for amphetamine-induced taste aversion learning in intactmore » rats and rats with area postrema lesions, it was shown that both groups of rats acquired taste aversions following injection of amphetamine, although the rats with lesions showed a less severe aversion than the intact rats. The results are interpreted as indicating that amphetamine-induced taste aversion learning may involve area postrema-mediated mechanisms, particularly at the lower doses, but that an intact area postrema is not a necessary condition for the acquisition of an amphetamine-induced taste aversion.« less

Epidemics in markets with trade friction and imperfect transactions.

PubMed

Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Monod, Hervé; Gilligan, Christopher A; Vergu, Elisabeta; Filipe, João A N

2015-06-07

Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting trade that conduces the disease. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, responses in market dynamics clearly differ from simple risk aversion, as are driven by other motivation and conditioned by "friction" constraints (a term we borrow from labour economics). Consequently, the propagation of epidemics in markets of, for example livestock, is frictional due to time and cost limitations in the production and exchange of potentially infectious goods. Here we develop a coupled economic-epidemiological model where transient and long-term market dynamics are determined by trade friction and agent adaptation, and can influence disease transmission. The market model is parameterised from datasets on French cattle and pig exchange networks. We show that, when trade is the dominant route of transmission, market friction can be a significantly stronger determinant of epidemics than risk-aversion behaviour. In particular, there is a critical level of friction above which epidemics do not occur, which suggests some epidemics may not be sustained in highly frictional markets. In addition, friction may allow for greater delay in removal of infected agents that still mitigates the epidemic and its impacts. We suggest that policy for minimising contagion in markets could be adjusted to the level of market friction, by adjusting the urgency of intervention or by increasing friction through incentivisation of larger-volume less-frequent transactions that would have limited effect on overall trade flow. Our results are robust to model specificities and can hold in the presence of non-trade disease-transmission routes. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Optimising import risk mitigation: anticipating the unintended consequences and competing risks of informal trade.

PubMed

Hueston, W; Travis, D; van Klink, E

2011-04-01

The effectiveness of risk mitigation may be compromised by informal trade, including illegal activities, parallel markets and extra-legal activities. While no regulatory system is 100% effective in eliminating the risk of disease transmission through animal and animal product trade, extreme risk aversion in formal import health regulations may increase informal trade, with the unintended consequence of creating additional risks outside regulatory purview. Optimal risk mitigation on a national scale requires scientifically sound yet flexible mitigation strategies that can address the competing risks of formal and informal trade. More robust risk analysis and creative engagement of nontraditional partners provide avenues for addressing informal trade.

Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

2016-04-01

Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Locus coeruleus to basolateral amygdala noradrenergic projections promote anxiety-like behavior

PubMed Central

McCall, Jordan G; Siuda, Edward R; Bhatti, Dionnet L; Lawson, Lamley A; McElligott, Zoe A; Stuber, Garret D; Bruchas, Michael R

2017-01-01

Increased tonic activity of locus coeruleus noradrenergic (LC-NE) neurons induces anxiety-like and aversive behavior. While some information is known about the afferent circuitry that endogenously drives this neural activity and behavior, the downstream receptors and anatomical projections that mediate these acute risk aversive behavioral states via the LC-NE system remain unresolved. Here we use a combination of retrograde tracing, fast-scan cyclic voltammetry, electrophysiology, and in vivo optogenetics with localized pharmacology to identify neural substrates downstream of increased tonic LC-NE activity in mice. We demonstrate that photostimulation of LC-NE fibers in the BLA evokes norepinephrine release in the basolateral amygdala (BLA), alters BLA neuronal activity, conditions aversion, and increases anxiety-like behavior. Additionally, we report that β-adrenergic receptors mediate the anxiety-like phenotype of increased NE release in the BLA. These studies begin to illustrate how the complex efferent system of the LC-NE system selectively mediates behavior through distinct receptor and projection-selective mechanisms. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18247.001 PMID:28708061

Emotional Stress and Cardiovascular Complications in Animal Models: A Review of the Influence of Stress Type

PubMed Central

Crestani, Carlos C.

2016-01-01

Emotional stress has been recognized as a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. The impact of stress on physiological and psychological processes is determined by characteristics of the stress stimulus. For example, distinct responses are induced by acute vs. chronic aversive stimuli. Additionally, the magnitude of stress responses has been reported to be inversely related to the degree of predictability of the aversive stimulus. Therefore, the purpose of the present review was to discuss experimental research in animal models describing the influence of stressor stimulus characteristics, such as chronicity and predictability, in cardiovascular dysfunctions induced by emotional stress. Regarding chronicity, the importance of cardiovascular and autonomic adjustments during acute stress sessions and cardiovascular consequences of frequent stress response activation during repeated exposure to aversive threats (i.e., chronic stress) is discussed. Evidence of the cardiovascular and autonomic changes induced by chronic stressors involving daily exposure to the same stressor (predictable) vs. different stressors (unpredictable) is reviewed and discussed in terms of the impact of predictability in cardiovascular dysfunctions induced by stress. PMID:27445843

Cognitive biases can affect moral intuitions about cognitive enhancement

PubMed Central

Caviola, Lucius; Mannino, Adriano; Savulescu, Julian; Faulmüller, Nadira

2014-01-01

Research into cognitive biases that impair human judgment has mostly been applied to the area of economic decision-making. Ethical decision-making has been comparatively neglected. Since ethical decisions often involve very high individual as well as collective stakes, analyzing how cognitive biases affect them can be expected to yield important results. In this theoretical article, we consider the ethical debate about cognitive enhancement (CE) and suggest a number of cognitive biases that are likely to affect moral intuitions and judgments about CE: status quo bias, loss aversion, risk aversion, omission bias, scope insensitivity, nature bias, and optimistic bias. We find that there are more well-documented biases that are likely to cause irrational aversion to CE than biases in the opposite direction. This suggests that common attitudes about CE are predominantly negatively biased. Within this new perspective, we hope that subsequent research will be able to elaborate this hypothesis and develop effective de-biasing techniques that can help increase the rationality of the public CE debate and thus improve our ethical decision-making. PMID:25360088

Portfolio optimization with skewness and kurtosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Weng Hoe; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Mean and variance of return distributions are two important parameters of the mean-variance model in portfolio optimization. However, the mean-variance model will become inadequate if the returns of assets are not normally distributed. Therefore, higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis cannot be ignored. Risk averse investors prefer portfolios with high skewness and low kurtosis so that the probability of getting negative rates of return will be reduced. The objective of this study is to compare the portfolio compositions as well as performances between the mean-variance model and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model by using the polynomial goal programming approach. The results show that the incorporation of skewness and kurtosis will change the optimal portfolio compositions. The mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model outperforms the mean-variance model because the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model takes skewness and kurtosis into consideration. Therefore, the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model is more appropriate for the investors of Malaysia in portfolio optimization.

Low-dose extrapolation of radiation health risks: some implications of uncertainty for radiation protection at low doses.

PubMed

Land, Charles E

2009-11-01

Ionizing radiation is a known and well-quantified human cancer risk factor, based on a remarkably consistent body of information from epidemiological studies of exposed populations. Typical examples of risk estimation include use of Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to estimate future risk from radiation-related cancer among American patients receiving multiple computed tomography scans, persons affected by radioactive fallout, or persons whose livelihoods involve some radiation exposure, such as x-ray technicians, interventional radiologists, or shipyard workers. Our estimates of radiation-related risk are uncertain, reflecting statistical variation and our imperfect understanding of crucial assumptions that must be made if we are to apply existing epidemiological data to particular situations. Fortunately, that uncertainty is also highly quantifiable, and can be presented concisely and transparently. Radiation protection is ultimately a political process that involves consent by stakeholders, a diverse group that includes people who might be expected to be risk-averse and concerned with plausible upper limits on risk (how bad could it be?), cost-averse and concerned with lower limits on risk (can you prove there is a nontrivial risk at current dose levels?), or combining both points of view. How radiation-related risk is viewed by individuals and population subgroups also depends very much on perception of related benefit, which might be (for example) medical, economic, altruistic, or nonexistent. The following presentation follows the lead of National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Commentary 14, NCRP Report 126, and later documents in treating radiation protection from the viewpoint of quantitative uncertainty analysis.

Modulating activity in the prefrontal cortex changes decision-making for risky gains and losses: a transcranial direct current stimulation study.

PubMed

Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Luo, Jun

2015-06-01

When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the risks and benefits of each option. Previous studies have found that weighing of risks and benefits during decision-making involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), but the causal effect of this network on risk decision-making has remained unclear. This experiment was based on a risk-measurement table designed to provide a direct measure of risk preference, with a weighted value of the choices (denoted as weighted risk aversion, WRA) as an index of the participant's degree of risk aversion. We studied whether bifrontal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) applied over the right and left prefrontal cortex can change the balance of risky vs. safe responses under both gain frame and loss frame. A total of 60 volunteers performed risk tasks while receiving either anodal over the right with cathodal over the left DLPFC, anodal over the left with cathodal over the right DLPFC, or sham stimulation. The participants tended to choose more risky options in the gain frame and more safe options in the loss frame after the right anodal/left cathodal tDCS. We also found that right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly decreased the WRA values compared with those associated with sham stimulation. These findings extend the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for risk decision-making, indicating an asymmetric role of the right DLPFC in the gain frame vs. the loss frame of risk decision-making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How to Make Loss Aversion Disappear and Reverse: Tests of the Decision by Sampling Origin of Loss Aversion

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

One of the most robust empirical findings in the behavioral sciences is loss aversion—the finding that losses loom larger than gains. We offer a new psychological explanation of the origins of loss aversion in which loss aversion emerges from differences in the distribution of gains and losses people experience. In 4 experiments, we tested this proposition by manipulating the range of gains and losses that individuals saw during the process of eliciting their loss aversion. We were able to find loss aversion, loss neutrality, and even the reverse of loss aversion. PMID:25485606

Defense AT&L (Volume 37, Number 3, May-June 2008)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

which needs spectrum for consumer products such as cell phones and Blackberry ® devices. Q. Speaking of spectrum, the Defense Spectrum Organization...Modernism is arrogant, risk-averse, and ill-suited to a dynamic environment. Its tunnel vision inappropriately disregards inconvenient data and

Motivational systems in adolescence: Possible implications for age differences in substance abuse and other risk-taking behaviors

PubMed Central

Doremus-Fitzwater, Tamara L.; Varlinskaya, Elena I.; Spear, Linda P.

2009-01-01

Adolescence is an evolutionarily conserved developmental phase characterized by hormonal, physiological, neural and behavioral alterations evident widely across mammalian species. For instance, adolescent rats, like their human counterparts, exhibit elevations in peer-directed social interactions, risk-taking/novelty seeking and drug and alcohol use relative to adults, along with notable changes in motivational and reward-related brain regions. After reviewing these topics, the present paper discusses conditioned preference and aversion data showing adolescents to be more sensitive than adults to positive rewarding properties of various drugs and natural stimuli, while less sensitive to the aversive properties of these stimuli. Additional experiments designed to parse specific components of reward-related processing using natural rewards have yielded more mixed findings, with reports of accentuated positive hedonic sensitivity during adolescence contrasting with studies showing less positive hedonic affect and reduced incentive salience at this age. Implications of these findings for adolescent substance abuse will be discussed. PMID:19762139

Some new results on the Levy, Levy and Solomon microscopic stock market model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zschischang, Elmar; Lux, Thomas

2001-03-01

We report some findings from our simulations of the Levy, Levy and Solomon microscopic stock market model. Our results cast doubts on some of the results published in the original papers (i.e., chaotic stock price movements). We also point out the possibility of sensitive dependence on initial conditions of the emerging wealth distribution among agents. Extensions of the model set-up show that with varying degrees of risk aversion, the less risk averse traders will tend to dominate the market. Similarly, when introducing a new trader group (or even a single trader) with a constant share of stocks in their portfolio, the latter will eventually take over and marginalize the other groups. The better performance of the more sober investors is in accordance with traditional perceptions in financial economics. Hence, the survival of ‘noise traders’ looking at short-term trends and patterns remains as much of a puzzle in this framework as in the traditional Efficient Market Theory.

The foreign-language effect: thinking in a foreign tongue reduces decision biases.

PubMed

Keysar, Boaz; Hayakawa, Sayuri L; An, Sun Gyu

2012-06-01

Would you make the same decisions in a foreign language as you would in your native tongue? It may be intuitive that people would make the same choices regardless of the language they are using, or that the difficulty of using a foreign language would make decisions less systematic. We discovered, however, that the opposite is true: Using a foreign language reduces decision-making biases. Four experiments show that the framing effect disappears when choices are presented in a foreign tongue. Whereas people were risk averse for gains and risk seeking for losses when choices were presented in their native tongue, they were not influenced by this framing manipulation in a foreign language. Two additional experiments show that using a foreign language reduces loss aversion, increasing the acceptance of both hypothetical and real bets with positive expected value. We propose that these effects arise because a foreign language provides greater cognitive and emotional distance than a native tongue does.

Inactivation of the Ventrolateral Orbitofrontal Cortex Impairs Flexible Use of Safety Signals.

PubMed

Sarlitto, Mary C; Foilb, Allison R; Christianson, John P

2018-05-21

Survival depends on adaptation to shifting environmental risks and opportunities. Regarding risks, the mechanisms which permit acquisition, recall, and flexible use of aversive associations is poorly understood. Drawing on the evidence that the orbital frontal cortex is critical to integrating outcome expectancies with flexible appetitive behavioral responses, we hypothesized that OFC would contribute to behavioral flexibility within an aversive learning domain. We introduce a fear conditioning procedure in which adult male rats were presented with shock-paired conditioned stimulus (CS+) or a safety cue (CS-). In a recall test, rats exhibit greater freezing to the CS+ than the CS-. Temporary inactivation of the ventrolateral OFC with muscimol prior to conditioning did not affect later discrimination, but inactivation after learning and prior to recall impaired discrimination between safety and danger cues. This result complements prior research in the appetitive domain and suggests that the OFC plays a general role in behavioral flexibility regardless of the valence of the CS. Copyright © 2018 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Decisions for Others: An Exception to Loss Aversion Law

PubMed Central

Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

2014-01-01

In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision. PMID:24454788

Implied preference for seismic design level and earthquake insurance.

PubMed

Goda, K; Hong, H P

2008-04-01

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.

Value-based decision-making battery: A Bayesian adaptive approach to assess impulsive and risky behavior.

PubMed

Pooseh, Shakoor; Bernhardt, Nadine; Guevara, Alvaro; Huys, Quentin J M; Smolka, Michael N

2018-02-01

Using simple mathematical models of choice behavior, we present a Bayesian adaptive algorithm to assess measures of impulsive and risky decision making. Practically, these measures are characterized by discounting rates and are used to classify individuals or population groups, to distinguish unhealthy behavior, and to predict developmental courses. However, a constant demand for improved tools to assess these constructs remains unanswered. The algorithm is based on trial-by-trial observations. At each step, a choice is made between immediate (certain) and delayed (risky) options. Then the current parameter estimates are updated by the likelihood of observing the choice, and the next offers are provided from the indifference point, so that they will acquire the most informative data based on the current parameter estimates. The procedure continues for a certain number of trials in order to reach a stable estimation. The algorithm is discussed in detail for the delay discounting case, and results from decision making under risk for gains, losses, and mixed prospects are also provided. Simulated experiments using prescribed parameter values were performed to justify the algorithm in terms of the reproducibility of its parameters for individual assessments, and to test the reliability of the estimation procedure in a group-level analysis. The algorithm was implemented as an experimental battery to measure temporal and probability discounting rates together with loss aversion, and was tested on a healthy participant sample.

Commercial launch systems: A risky investment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupnick, Edwin; Skratt, John

1996-03-01

A myriad of evolutionary paths connect the current state of government-dominated space launch operations to true commercial access to space. Every potential path requires the investment of private capital sufficient to fund the commercial venture with a perceived risk/return ratio acceptable to the investors. What is the private sector willing to invest? Does government participation reduce financial risk? How viable is a commercial launch system without government participation and support? We examine the interplay between various forms of government participation in commercial launch system development, alternative launch system designs, life cycle cost estimates, and typical industry risk aversion levels. The boundaries of this n-dimensional envelope are examined with an ECON-developed business financial model which provides for the parametric assessment and interaction of SSTO design variables (including various operational scenarios with financial variables including debt/equity assumptions, and commercial enterprise burden rates on various functions. We overlay this structure with observations from previous ECON research which characterize financial risk aversion levels for selected industrial sectors in terms of acceptable initial lump-sum investments, cumulative investments, probability of failure, payback periods, and ROI. The financial model allows the construction of parametric tradeoffs based on ranges of variables which can be said to actually encompass the ``true'' cost of operations and determine what level of ``true'' costs can be tolerated by private capitalization.

Organizing Effects of Testosterone and Economic Behavior: Not Just Risk Taking

PubMed Central

Brañas-Garza, Pablo; Rustichini, Aldo

2011-01-01

Recent literature emphasizes the role that testosterone, as well as markers indicating early exposure to T and its organizing effect on the brain (such as the ratio of second to fourth finger, ), have on performance in financial markets. These results may suggest that the main effect of T, either circulating or in fetal exposure, on economic behavior occurs through the increased willingness to take risks. However, these findings indicate that traders with a low digit ratio are not only more profitable, but more able to survive in the long run, thus the effect might consist of more than just lower risk aversion. In addition, recent literature suggests a positive correlation between abstract reasoning ability and higher willingness to take risks. To test the two hypotheses of testosterone on performance in financial activities (effect on risk attitude versus a complex effect involving risk attitude and reasoning ability), we gather data on the three variables in a sample of 188 ethnically homogeneous college students (Caucasians). We measure a digit ratio, abstract reasoning ability with the Raven Progressive Matrices task, and risk attitude with choice among lotteries. Low digit ratio in men is associated with higher risk taking and higher scores in abstract reasoning ability when a combined measure of risk aversion over different tasks is used. This explains both the higher performance and higher survival rate observed in traders, as well as the observed correlation between abstract reasoning ability and risk taking. We also analyze how much of the total effect of digit ratio on risk attitude is direct, and how much is mediated. Mediation analysis shows that a substantial part of the effect of T on attitude to risk is mediated by abstract reasoning ability. PMID:22242144

Automated cycled sprinkler irrigation for spring frost protection of cranberries

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sprinkler irrigation is essential for preventing spring frost bud damage in cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait). Risk-averse growers have been reluctant to adopt the intermittent cycling of irrigation pumps as a standard management practice. In the spring of 2013 and 2014, an experiment was conduc...

On the Teaching of Portfolio Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biederman, Daniel K.

1992-01-01

Demonstrates how a simple portfolio problem expressed explicitly as an expected utility maximization problem can be used to instruct students in portfolio theory. Discusses risk aversion, decision making under uncertainty, and the limitations of the traditional mean variance approach. Suggests students may develop a greater appreciation of general…

Fear of fluoride.

PubMed

Reekie, D

2017-01-13

Discusses how dental and medical scares have resulted in a "culture of fear" which has damaged patients and dentists. Forty years of pessimism have created a demoralised and risk-averse society. The reality of a steadily improving world demands a new attitude of rational optimism and a healthy scepticism about new scares.

The Chasm Remains.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Paul T.; Guin, Kacey; Celio, Mary Beth

2003-01-01

Argues that "A Nation at Risk" failed to address adequately problems of urban education, and thus the achievement gap between minority and white students still exists. Describes several problems that still plague low-performing urban schools, such as bureaucratic aversion to change, high levels of poverty, and low teacher quality and…

Conditioned aversion induced by Baccharis coridifolia in sheep and cattle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In Southern Brazil Baccharis coridifolia is an important toxic plant. The poisoning occurs when animals raised in areas without the plant are transported to, and allowed to graze in, pastures infested by B. coridifolia. Intoxication risk increases considerably when recently transported animals are s...

Adolescent C57BL/6J mice show elevated alcohol intake, but reduced taste aversion, as compared to adult mice: a potential behavioral mechanism for binge drinking.

PubMed

Holstein, Sarah E; Spanos, Marina; Hodge, Clyde W

2011-10-01

Binge alcohol drinking during adolescence is a serious health problem that may increase future risk of an alcohol use disorder. Although there are several different procedures by which to preclinically model binge-like alcohol intake, limited-access procedures offer the advantage of achieving high voluntary alcohol intake and pharmacologically relevant blood alcohol concentrations (BACs). Therefore, in the current study, developmental differences in binge-like alcohol drinking using a limited-access cycling procedure were examined. In addition, as alcohol drinking has been negatively correlated with sensitivity to the aversive properties of alcohol, we examined developmental differences in sensitivity to an alcohol-induced conditioned taste aversion (CTA). Binge-like alcohol consumption was investigated in adolescent (4 weeks) and adult (10 weeks) male C57BL/6J mice for 2 to 4 h/d for 16 days. Developmental differences in sensitivity to an alcohol-induced CTA were examined in adolescent and adult mice, with saline or alcohol (3 or 4 g/kg) repeatedly paired with the intake of a novel tastant (NaCl). Adolescent mice showed a significant increase in alcohol intake as compared to adults, with adolescents achieving higher BACs and increasing alcohol consumption over successive cycles of the binge procedure. Conversely, adolescent mice exhibited a dose-dependent reduction in sensitivity to the aversive properties of alcohol, as compared to adult mice, with adolescent mice failing to develop a CTA to 3 g/kg alcohol. Finally, extinction of an alcohol CTA was observed following conditioning with a higher dose of alcohol in adolescent, versus adult, mice. These results indicate that adolescent mice consume more alcohol, per kilogram body weight, than adults in a binge-like model of alcohol drinking and demonstrate a blunted sensitivity to the conditioned aversive effects of alcohol. Overall, this supports a behavioral framework by which heightened binge alcohol intake during adolescence occurs, in part, via a reduced sensitivity to the aversive properties of alcohol. Copyright © 2011 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Adolescent C57BL/6J mice show elevated alcohol intake, but reduced taste aversion, as compared to adult mice: a potential behavioral mechanism for binge drinking

PubMed Central

Holstein, Sarah E.; Spanos, Marina; Hodge, Clyde W.

2011-01-01

Background Binge alcohol drinking during adolescence is a serious health problem which may increase future risk of an alcohol use disorder. Although there are several different procedures by which to preclinically model binge-like alcohol intake, limited-access procedures offer the advantage of achieving high voluntary alcohol intake and pharmacologically relevant blood alcohol concentrations (BACs). Therefore, in the current study, developmental differences in binge-like alcohol drinking using a limited-access cycling procedure were examined. In addition, as alcohol drinking has been negatively correlated with sensitivity to the aversive properties of alcohol, we examined developmental differences in sensitivity to an alcohol-induced conditioned taste aversion (CTA). Methods Binge-like alcohol consumption was investigated in adolescent (4 wk) and adult (10 wk) male C57BL/6J mice for 2-4 h/day for 16 d. Developmental differences in sensitivity to an alcohol-induced CTA were examined in adolescent and adult mice, with saline or alcohol (3 or 4 g/kg) repeatedly paired with intake of a novel tastant (NaCl). Results Adolescent mice showed a significant increase in alcohol intake as compared to adults, with adolescents achieving higher BACs and increasing alcohol consumption over successive cycles of the binge procedure. Conversely, adolescent mice exhibited a dose-dependent reduction in sensitivity to the aversive properties of alcohol, as compared to adult mice, with adolescent mice failing to develop a CTA to 3 g/kg alcohol. Finally, extinction of an alcohol CTA was observed following conditioning with a higher dose of alcohol in adolescent, versus adult, mice. Conclusions These results indicate that adolescent mice consume more alcohol, per kg body weight, than adults in a binge-like model of alcohol drinking, and demonstrate a blunted sensitivity to the conditioned aversive effects of alcohol. Overall, this supports a behavioral framework by which heightened binge alcohol intake during adolescence occurs, in part, via a reduced sensitivity to the aversive properties of alcohol. PMID:21575017

Sex differences in the use of social information emerge under conditions of risk.

PubMed

Brand, Charlotte O; Brown, Gillian R; Cross, Catharine P

2018-01-01

Social learning provides an effective route to gaining up-to-date information, particularly when information is costly to obtain asocially. Theoretical work predicts that the willingness to switch between using asocial and social sources of information will vary between individuals according to their risk tolerance. We tested the prediction that, where there are sex differences in risk tolerance, altering the variance of the payoffs of using asocial and social information differentially influences the probability of social information use by sex. In a computer-based task that involved building a virtual spaceship, men and women ( N  = 88) were given the option of using either asocial or social sources of information to improve their performance. When the asocial option was risky (i.e., the participant's score could markedly increase or decrease) and the social option was safe (i.e., their score could slightly increase or remain the same), women, but not men, were more likely to use the social option than the asocial option. In all other conditions, both women and men preferentially used the asocial option to a similar degree. We therefore found both a sex difference in risk aversion and a sex difference in the preference for social information when relying on asocial information was risky, consistent with the hypothesis that levels of risk-aversion influence the use of social information.

Sex differences in the use of social information emerge under conditions of risk

PubMed Central

Brand, Charlotte O.; Brown, Gillian R.

2018-01-01

Social learning provides an effective route to gaining up-to-date information, particularly when information is costly to obtain asocially. Theoretical work predicts that the willingness to switch between using asocial and social sources of information will vary between individuals according to their risk tolerance. We tested the prediction that, where there are sex differences in risk tolerance, altering the variance of the payoffs of using asocial and social information differentially influences the probability of social information use by sex. In a computer-based task that involved building a virtual spaceship, men and women (N = 88) were given the option of using either asocial or social sources of information to improve their performance. When the asocial option was risky (i.e., the participant’s score could markedly increase or decrease) and the social option was safe (i.e., their score could slightly increase or remain the same), women, but not men, were more likely to use the social option than the asocial option. In all other conditions, both women and men preferentially used the asocial option to a similar degree. We therefore found both a sex difference in risk aversion and a sex difference in the preference for social information when relying on asocial information was risky, consistent with the hypothesis that levels of risk-aversion influence the use of social information. PMID:29312821

Altered risk-aversion and risk-taking behaviour in patients with Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Ha, Juwon; Kim, Eun-Jin; Lim, Sewon; Shin, Dong-Won; Kang, Yeo-Jin; Bae, Seung-Min; Yoon, Hyung-Kun; Oh, Kang-Seob

2012-09-01

Normal individuals are risk averse for decisions framed as gains but risk taking for decisions framed as losses. This framing effect is supposed to be attenuated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. We investigated the effects of highlighting rewards versus highlighting punishments on the risky decision-making of AD patients. Fourteen mild to moderate AD patients (Mini-Mental Status Examination score, 11-23; Clinical Dementia Rating, 1-2) and 16 healthy volunteers were recruited for the study. Subjects completed a computerized task on risky decision-making in which mathematically equivalent dilemmas were presented in terms of opportunities to gain monetary rewards ('positive frame') or avoid suffering losses ('negative frame'). As expected, AD patients chose more risky options under the positive frame than the negative frame, contrary to the control group (Z =-2.671, P= 0.007). The normal difference in the distribution of risky choices between positively and negatively framed dilemmas was significantly reduced in the AD group after we adjusted for years of education, mean age and depression (F= 5.321, P= 0.030). Deliberation time did not differ significantly between the two groups. These results suggest that AD patients making high-risk choices is associated with attenuated sensitivity to the emotional frames that highlight rewards or punishments, possibly reflecting altered evaluations of prospective gains and losses. © 2012 The Authors. Psychogeriatrics © 2012 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

Effects of monetary reserves and rate of gain on human risky choice under budget constraints.

PubMed

Pietras, Cynthia J; Searcy, Gabriel D; Huitema, Brad E; Brandt, Andrew E

2008-07-01

The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts that choice should be risk averse when net gains plus reserves meet energy requirements (positive energy-budget conditions) and risk prone when net gains plus reserves fall below requirements (negative energy-budget conditions). Studies have shown that the energy-budget rule provides a good description of risky choice in humans when choice is studied under economic conditions (i.e., earnings budgets) that simulate positive and negative energy budgets. In previous human studies, earnings budgets were manipulated by varying earnings requirements, but in most nonhuman studies, energy budgets have been manipulated by varying reserves and/or mean rates of reinforcement. The present study therefore investigated choice in humans between certain and variable monetary outcomes when earnings budgets were manipulated by varying monetary reserves and mean rates of monetary gain. Consistent with the energy-budget rule, choice tended to be risk averse under positive-budget conditions and risk neutral or risk prone under negative-budget conditions. Sequential choices were also well described by a dynamic optimization model, especially when expected earnings for optimal choices were high. These results replicate and extend the results of prior experiments in showing that humans' choices are generally consistent with the predictions of the energy-budget rule when studied under conditions analogous to those used in nonhuman energy-budget studies, and that choice patterns tend to maximize reinforcement.

Clinical responsibility, accountability, and risk aversion in mental health nursing: a descriptive, qualitative study.

PubMed

Manuel, Jenni; Crowe, Marie

2014-08-01

A number of recent, highly-publicized, perceived health-care service failures have raised concerns about health professionals' accountabilities. Relevant to these concerns, the present study sought to examine how mental health nurses understood clinical responsibility and its impact on their practice. A descriptive, qualitative design was used, and a convenience sample of 10 mental health nurses was recruited from specialist inpatient and outpatient mental health settings in Canterbury, New Zealand. Data were collected using semistructured interviews, and the transcriptions were analysed using an inductive, descriptive approach. Three major themes were identified: being accountable, fostering patient responsibility, and shifting responsibility. Being accountable involved weighing up patients' therapeutic needs against the potential for blame in an organizational culture of risk management. Fostering patient responsibility described the process of deciding in what situations patients could take responsibility for their behaviour. Shifting responsibility described the culture of defensive practice fostered by the organizational culture of risk aversion. The present study highlighted the challenges mental health nurses experience in relation to clinical responsibility in practice, including the balancing required between the needs of patients, the needs of the organization, and the perceived need for self-protection. © 2014 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

2017-06-01

A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, forecasts based on meteorological ensembles, and a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variable uncertainty. This comparison takes place for the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in southern central Quebec, Canada. The assessment of forecasts is performed for lead times of 1 to 5 days, both in terms of forecasts' quality (relative to the corresponding record of observations) and in terms of economic value, using the new proposed framework based on the CARA utility function. It is found that the economic value of a forecast for a risk-averse decision maker is closely linked to the forecast reliability in predicting the upper tail of the streamflow distribution. Hence, post-processing forecasts to avoid over-forecasting could help improve both the quality and the value of forecasts.

The effect of male teenage passengers on male teenage drivers: findings from a driving simulator study

PubMed Central

Ouimet, Marie Claude; Pradhan, Anuj K.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Divekar, Gautam; Mehranian, Hasmik; Fisher, Donald L.

2014-01-01

Studies have shown that teenage drivers are less attentive, more frequently exhibit risky driving behavior, and have a higher fatal crash risk in the presence of peers. The effects of direct peer pressure and conversation on young drivers have been examined. Little is known about the impact on driving performance of the presence of a non-interacting passenger and subtle modes of peer influence, such as perceived social norms. The goal of this study was to examine if teenagers would engage in more risky driving practices and be less attentive in the presence of a passenger (vs. driving alone) as well as with a risk-accepting (vs. risk-averse) passenger. A confederate portrayed the passenger's characteristics mainly by his non-verbal attitude. The relationship between driver characteristics and driving behavior in the presence of a passenger was also examined. Thirty-six male participants aged 16-17 years old were randomly assigned to drive with a risk-accepting or risk-averse passenger. Main outcomes included speed, headway, gap acceptance, eye glances at hazards, and horizontal eye movement. Driver characteristics such as tolerance of deviance, susceptibility to peer pressure, and self-esteem were measured. Compared to solo driving, the presence of a passenger was associated with significantly fewer eye glances at hazards and a trend for fewer horizontal eye movements. Contrary to the hypothesis, however, passenger presence was associated with a greater number of vehicles before initiating a left turn. Results also showed, contrary to the hypothesis, that participants with the risk-accepting passenger maintained significantly longer headway with the lead vehicle and engaged in more eye glances at hazards than participants with the risk-averse passenger. Finally, when driving with the passenger, earlier initiation of a left turn in a steady stream of oncoming vehicles was significantly associated with higher tolerance of deviance and susceptibility to peer pressure, while fewer eye glances at hazards was linked to lower self-esteem. While the results of this study were mixed, they suggest that the presence of a teenage passenger can affect some aspects of teenage driver behavior even in the absence of overt pressure and distraction. Results are discussed in relation to theoretical concepts of social influence and social facilitation models. PMID:23727554

Attenuation and cross-attenuation in taste-aversion learning in the rat: Studies with ionizing radiation, lithium chloride, and ethanol. Scientific report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rabin, B.M.; Hunt, W.A.; Lee, J.

1989-01-01

The pre-exposure paradigm was utilized to evaluate the similarity of ionizing radiation, lithium chloride, and ethanol as unconditioned stimuli for the acquisition of a conditioned taste aversion. Three unpaired pre-exposures to lithium chloride blocked the acquisition of a taste aversion when a novel sucrose solution was paired with either the injection of the same dose of lithium chloride or exposure to ionizing radiation (100 rad). Similar pretreatment with radiation blocked the acquisition of a radiation-induced aversion, but had no effect on taste aversions produced by lithium aversion, but not radiation- or lithium chloride-induced aversions. In contrast, preexposure to either radiationmore » or lithium chloride attenuated an ethanol-induced taste aversion in intact rats, but not in rats with lesions of the area postrema. The results are discussed in terms of relationships between these three unconditioned stimuli and in terms of implications of these results for understanding the nature of the proximal unconditioned stimulus in taste aversion learning.« less

Does a too risk-averse approach to the implementation of new radiotherapy technologies delay their clinical use?

PubMed

Garcia, R; Nyström, H; Fiorino, C; Thwaites, D

2015-07-01

Radiotherapy is a generally safe treatment modality in practice; nevertheless, recent well-reported accidents also confirm its potential risks. However, this may obstruct or delay the introduction of new technologies and treatment strategies/techniques into clinical practice. Risks must be addressed and judged in a realistic context: risks must be assessed realistically. Introducing new technology may introduce new possibilities of errors. However, delaying the introduction of such new technology therefore means that patients are denied the potentially better treatment opportunities. Despite the difficulty in quantitatively assessing the risks on both sides of the possible choice of actions, including the "lost opportunity", the best estimates should be included in the overall risk-benefit and cost-benefit analysis. Radiotherapy requires a sufficiently high level of support for the safety, precision and accuracy required: radiotherapy development and implementation is exciting. However, it has been anxious with a constant awareness of the consequences of mistakes or misunderstandings. Recent history can be used to show that for introduction of advanced radiotherapy, the risk-averse medical physicist can act as an electrical fuse in a complex circuit. The lack of sufficient medical physics resource or expertise can short out this fuse and leave systems unsafe. Future technological developments will continue to present further safety and risk challenges. The important evolution of radiotherapy brings different management opinions and strategies. Advanced radiotherapy technologies can and should be safely implemented in as timely a manner as possible for the patient groups where clinical benefit is indicated.

Dealing With Uncertainty: Testing Risk- and Ambiguity-Attitude Across Adolescence.

PubMed

Blankenstein, Neeltje E; Crone, Eveline A; van den Bos, Wouter; van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C K

2016-01-01

Attitudes to risk (known probabilities) and attitudes to ambiguity (unknown probabilities) are separate constructs that influence decision making, but their development across adolescence remains elusive. We administered a choice task to a wide adolescent age-range (N = 157, 10-25 years) to disentangle risk- and ambiguity-attitudes using a model-based approach. Additionally, this task was played in a social context, presenting choices from a high risk-taking peer. We observed age-related changes in ambiguity-attitude, but not risk-attitude. Also, ambiguity-aversion was negatively related to real-life risk taking. Finally, the social context influenced only risk-attitudes. These results highlight the importance of disentangling risk- and ambiguity-attitudes in adolescent risk taking.

The New Education CFO: From Scorekeeper to Strategic Leader

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hovey, Don; Boser, Ulrich

2014-01-01

Traditionally, district and corporate leaders regarded chief financial officers, or CFOs, as chief accountants. They were the individuals tasked with ensuring financial compliance, settling the books, creating reports, and cutting costs. The CFO was inherently risk averse and internally focused; he or she was there to backstop the ambitious plans…

Constructive Disruptions for Effective Collaborative Learning: Navigating the Affordances of Social Media for Meaningful Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rambe, Patient

2012-01-01

The essentialist view that new technological innovations (especially Social Media) disrupt higher education delivery ride on educators' risk averse attitudes toward full scale adoption of unproven technologies. However, this unsubstantiated logic forecloses possibilities for embracing the constructive dimensions of disruptions, and grasping the…

The Educational Strategies of Danish University Students from Professional and Working-Class Backgrounds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomsen, Jens Peter; Munk, Martin D.; Eiberg-Madsen, Misja; Hansen, Gro Inge

2013-01-01

This article studies the educational strategies adopted by university students from different class backgrounds in a Scandinavian welfare regime. Studies show distinct differences among classes relating to economic considerations, risk-averse behavior, and patterns of socialization among university students. We investigate these differences…

Two Essays on Learning Disabilities in the Application of Fundamental Financial Principles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Auciello, Daria Joy

2010-01-01

This dissertation consists of two essays which examine the relationship between dyslexia and the application and acquisition of financial knowledge. Recent behavioral research has documented that factors such as representativeness, overconfidence, loss aversion, naivete, wealth, age and gender all impact a person's risk perception and asset…

Leadership for Learning: An Action Theory of School Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagner, Tony

2001-01-01

Common factors contributing to teachers' resistance include risk aversion, craft expertise, and autonomy and isolation. Leaders' problem is to create ownership, not buy-in. Principals cannot make change alone or by edict, but must nurture engagement and commitment and motivate groups to learn and solve problems cooperatively. (MLH)

Endowment Spending Rates, Intergenerational Equity and the Sources of Capital Gains

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woglom, Geoffrey

2003-01-01

This paper analyzes how James Tobin's widely cited concept of "intergenerational equity" for university endowments relates to the economic concepts of intertemporal substitutability and risk aversion. I show that Tobin's concept of intergenerational equity is a very special case of intertemporal substitutability; a special case that implies very…

Academic Salaries and Self-Selection Processes. Some Theoretical Considerations Suggested by the Italian Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chillemi, Ottorino

1988-01-01

The author investigates the wisdom of public policy widening the salary differential between researchers and professors. He evaluates the potential problems in adopting a self-selection wage policy, when workers' risk aversion and preferences or the accumulation of human capital are considered. (Author/CH)

Risk-Aversion: Understanding Teachers' Resistance to Technology Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Sarah K.

2013-01-01

Teachers who do not integrate technology are often labelled as "resistant" to change. Yet, considerable uncertainties remain about appropriate uses and actual value of technology in teaching and learning, which can make integration and change seem risky. The purpose of this article is to explore the nature of teachers' analytical and…

Decision making for animal health and welfare: integrating risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory.

PubMed

Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

2014-06-01

This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk aversion, time preference and health production: theory and empirical evidence from Cambodia.

PubMed

Rieger, Matthias

2015-04-01

This paper quantifies the relationship between risk aversion and discount rates on the one hand and height and weight on the other. It studies this link in the context of poor households in Cambodia. Evidence is based on an original dataset that contains both experimental measures of risk taking and impatience along with anthropometric measurements of children and adults. The aim of the paper is to (i) explore the importance of risk and time preferences in explaining undernutrition and (ii) compare the evidence stemming from poor households to strikingly similar findings from industrialized countries. It uses an inter-generational approach to explain observed correlations in adults and children that is inspired by the height premium on labor markets. Parents can invest in the health capital of their child to increase future earnings and their consumption when old: better nutrition during infancy translates into better human capital and better wages, and ultimately better financial means to take care of elderly parents. However this investment is subject to considerable uncertainty, since parents neither perfectly foresee economic conditions when the child starts earning nor fully observe the ability to transform nutritional investments into long-term health capital. As a result, risk taking households have taller and heavier children. Conversely, impatience does not affect child health. In the case of adults, only weight and the body mass index (BMI), but not height, are positively and moderately correlated with risk taking and impatience. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-accepting personality and personal protective equipment use within the Agricultural Health Study.

PubMed

DellaValle, Curt T; Hoppin, Jane A; Hines, Cynthia J; Andreotti, Gabriella; Alavanja, Michael C R

2012-01-01

Pesticide exposures can be reduced by use of personal protective equipment as well as proper mixing and application practices. The authors examined the effects of risk-accepting personality on personal protective equipment (PPE) use and mixing and application practices among private pesticide applicators and their spouses within the Agricultural Health Study (AHS) in Iowa and North Carolina and commercial applicators in Iowa. The AHS follow-up questionnaire included four questions designed to assess attitudes toward risk. Analysis was limited to those who were currently working on a farm or registered as a commercial applicator and indicated current pesticide use (n=25,166). Respondents who answered three or more questions in the affirmative (private applicators: n=4160 [21%]; commercial applicators: n=199 [14%]; spouses: n=829 [23%]) were classified as having a risk-accepting personality. Logistic regression was used to evaluate specific work practices associated with risk-accepting attitudes. Among private applicators, the likelihood of using any PPE when mixing or loading pesticides was lower among risk-acceptors compared to risk-averse individuals (odds ratio [OR] = 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-0.79). A similar relationship was observed among commercial applicators (OR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.34-1.77) but not among spouses (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.90-1.33). Among private applicators, risk-acceptors were more likely than the risk-averse to apply pesticides within 50 feet of the home (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.01-1.44), compared to further than ¼ mile. These findings suggest that the decisions to use personal protective equipment and properly handle/apply pesticides may be driven by risk-accepting personality traits.

Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

PubMed Central

O'Brien, Megan K.; Ahmed, Alaa A.

2015-01-01

Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks. PMID:26106311

Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making.

PubMed

O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

2015-01-01

Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

Risk-Accepting Personality and Personal Protective Equipment Use within the Agricultural Health Study

PubMed Central

DellaValle, Curt T.; Hoppin, Jane A.; Hines, Cynthia J.; Andreotti, Gabriella; Alavanja, Michael C.R.

2012-01-01

Pesticide exposures can be reduced by use of personal protective equipment as well as proper mixing and application practices. We examined the effects of risk-accepting personality on personal protective equipment (PPE) use and mixing and application practices among private pesticide applicators and their spouses within the Agricultural Health Study (AHS) in Iowa and North Carolina and commercial applicators in Iowa. The AHS follow-up questionnaire included four questions designed to assess attitudes toward risk. Analysis was limited to those who were currently working on a farm or registered as a commercial applicator and indicated current pesticide use (n=25,166). Respondents who answered three or more questions in the affirmative (private applicators: n=4,160 (21%); commercial applicators: n=199 (14%); spouses: n=829 (23%)) were classified as having a risk-accepting personality. Logistic regression was used to evaluate specific work practices associated with risk-accepting attitudes. Among private applicators, the likelihood of using any PPE when mixing or loading pesticides was lower among risk-acceptors compared to risk-averse individuals (odds ratio (OR) = 0.72; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.65 – 0.79). A similar relationship was observed among commercial applicators (OR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.34 – 1.77) but not among spouses (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.90 – 1.33). Among private applicators, risk-acceptors were more likely than the risk-averse to apply pesticides within 50 ft of the home (OR=1.21; 95% CI: 1.01 – 1.44), compared to further than ¼ mile. Our findings suggest that the decisions to use personal protective equipment and properly handle/apply pesticides may be driven by risk-accepting personality traits. PMID:22732067

Aversion substance(s) of the rat coagulating glands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gawienowski, Anthony M.; Berry, Iver J.; Kennelly, James J.

1982-01-01

The aversive substance(s) present in adult male urine were not found in castrate rat urine. Removal of the coagulating glands also resulted in a loss of the aversion compounds. The aversion substances were restored to the urine after androgen treatment of the castrate rats.

Mothers' depressive symptoms predict both increased and reduced negative reactivity: aversion sensitivity and the regulation of emotion.

PubMed

Dix, Theodore; Moed, Anat; Anderson, Edward R

2014-07-01

This study examined whether, as mothers' depressive symptoms increase, their expressions of negative emotion to children increasingly reflect aversion sensitivity and motivation to minimize ongoing stress or discomfort. In multiple interactions over 2 years, negative affect expressed by 319 mothers and their children was observed across variations in mothers' depressive symptoms, the aversiveness of children's immediate behavior, and observed differences in children's general negative reactivity. As expected, depressive symptoms predicted reduced maternal negative reactivity when child behavior was low in aversiveness, particularly with children who were high in negative reactivity. Depressive symptoms predicted high negative reactivity and steep increases in negative reactivity as the aversiveness of child behavior increased, particularly when high and continued aversiveness from the child was expected (i.e., children were high in negative reactivity). The findings are consistent with the proposal that deficits in parenting competence as depressive symptoms increase reflect aversion sensitivity and motivation to avoid conflict and suppress children's aversive behavior. © The Author(s) 2014.

Effects of loss aversion on neural responses to loss outcomes: An event-related potential study.

PubMed

Kokmotou, Katerina; Cook, Stephanie; Xie, Yuxin; Wright, Hazel; Soto, Vicente; Fallon, Nicholas; Giesbrecht, Timo; Pantelous, Athanasios; Stancak, Andrej

2017-05-01

Loss aversion is the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains of the same amount. To shed light on the spatio-temporal processes underlying loss aversion, we analysed the associations between individual loss aversion and electrophysiological responses to loss and gain outcomes in a monetary gamble task. Electroencephalographic feedback-related negativity (FRN) was computed in 29 healthy participants as the difference in electrical potentials between losses and gains. Loss aversion was evaluated using non-linear parametric fitting of choices in a separate gamble task. Loss aversion correlated positively with FRN amplitude (233-263ms) at electrodes covering the lower face. Feedback related potentials were modelled by five equivalent source dipoles. From these dipoles, stronger activity in a source located in the orbitofrontal cortex was associated with loss aversion. The results suggest that loss aversion implemented during risky decision making is related to a valuation process in the orbitofrontal cortex, which manifests during learning choice outcomes. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ventral Pallidum Encodes Contextual Information and Controls Aversive Behaviors.

PubMed

Saga, Yosuke; Richard, Augustin; Sgambato-Faure, Véronique; Hoshi, Eiji; Tobler, Philippe N; Tremblay, Léon

2017-04-01

Successful avoidance of aversive outcomes is crucial for the survival of animals. Although accumulating evidence indicates that an indirect pathway in the basal ganglia is involved in aversive behavior, the ventral pallidum (VP), which is an important component of this pathway, has so far been implicated primarily in appetitive behavior. In this study, we used single-cell recordings and bicuculline (GABAA antagonist) injections to elucidate the role of VP both in the encoding of aversive context and in active avoidance. We found 2 populations of neurons that were preferentially activated by appetitive and aversive conditioned stimuli (CSs). In addition, VP showed appetitive and aversive outcome anticipatory activities. These activity patterns indicate that VP is involved in encoding and maintaining CS-induced aversive contextual information. Furthermore, the disturbance of VP activity by bicuculline injection increased the number of error trials in aversive trials. In particular, the subjects released the response bar prematurely, showed no response at all, or failed to avoid the aversive outcome. Overall, these results suggest that VP plays a central role in controlling CS-induced negative motivation to produce avoidance behavior. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Attenuation and cross-attenuation in taste aversion learning in the rat: Studies with ionizing radiation, lithium chloride and ethanol

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rabin, B.M.; Hunt, W.A.; Lee, J.

1988-12-01

The preexposure paradigm was utilized to evaluate the similarity of ionizing radiation, lithium chloride and ethanol as unconditioned stimuli for the acquisition of a conditioned taste aversion. Three unpaired preexposures to lithium chloride (3.0 mEq/kg, IP) blocked the acquisition of a taste aversion when a novel sucrose solution was paired with either the injection of the same dose of lithium chloride or exposure to ionizing radiation (100 rad). Similar pretreatment with radiation blocked the acquisition of a radiation-induced aversion, but had no effect on taste aversions produced by lithium chloride (3.0 or 1.5 mEq/kg). Preexposure to ethanol (4 g/kg, PO)more » disrupted the acquisition of an ethanol-induced taste aversion, but not radiation- or lithium chloride-induced aversions. In contrast, preexposure to either radiation or lithium chloride attenuated an ethanol-induced taste aversion in intact rats, but not in rats with lesions of the area postrema. The results are discussed in terms of relationships between these three unconditioned stimuli and in terms of implications of these results for understanding the nature of the proximal unconditioned stimulus in taste aversion learning.« less

Schizophrenia illness severity is associated with reduced loss aversion.

PubMed

Currie, James; Buruju, Dheeraj; Perrin, Jennifer S; Reid, Ian C; Steele, J Douglas; Feltovich, Nick

2017-06-01

Loss aversion, whereby losses weigh more heavily than equal-sized gains, has been demonstrated in many decision-making settings. Previous research has suggested reduced loss aversion in schizophrenia, but with little evidence of a link between loss aversion and schizophrenia illness severity. In this study, 20 individuals with schizophrenia and 16 control participants, matched by age and sex, played two versions of the Iterated Prisoners' Dilemma, one version with only positive payoffs and another version in which negative payoffs were possible, with the second version being derived from the first by subtracting a constant value from all payoffs. The control group demonstrated significantly lower cooperation rates under negative payoffs, compared with the version with only positive payoffs, indicative of loss aversion. The patient group on average showed no loss aversion response. Moreover, the extent of loss aversion in patients was found to be negatively correlated with schizophrenia illness severity, with less ill patients showing loss aversion more similar to controls. Results were found to be robust to the inclusion of potential confounding factors as covariates within rigorous probit regression analyses. Reduced loss aversion is a feature of schizophrenia and related to illness severity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Attenuation and cross-attenuation in taste aversion learning in the rat: studies with ionizing radiation, lithium chloride and ethanol.

PubMed

Rabin, B M; Hunt, W A; Lee, J

1988-12-01

The preexposure paradigm was utilized to evaluate the similarity of ionizing radiation, lithium chloride and ethanol as unconditioned stimuli for the acquisition of a conditioned taste aversion. Three unpaired preexposures to lithium chloride (3.0 mEq/kg, IP) blocked the acquisition of a taste aversion when a novel sucrose solution was paired with either the injection of the same dose of lithium chloride or exposure to ionizing radiation (100 rad). Similar pretreatment with radiation blocked the acquisition of a radiation-induced aversion, but had no effect on taste aversions produced by lithium chloride (3.0 or 1.5 mEq/kg). Preexposure to ethanol (4 g/kg, PO) disrupted the acquisition of an ethanol-induced taste aversion, but not radiation- or lithium chloride-induced aversions. In contrast, preexposure to either radiation or lithium chloride attenuated an ethanol-induced taste aversion in intact rats, but not in rats with lesions of the area postrema. The results are discussed in terms of relationships between these three unconditioned stimuli and in terms of implications of these results for understanding the nature of the proximal unconditioned stimulus in taste aversion learning.

Conditioned taste aversion and motion sickness in cats and squirrel monkeys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, Robert A.; Corcoran, Meryl Lee; Brizzee, Kenneth R.

1991-01-01

The relationship between vomiting and conditioned taste aversion was studied in intact cats and squirrel monkeys and in cats and squirrel monkeys in which the area postrema was ablated by thermal cautery. In cats conditioned 7-12 months after ablation of the area postrema, three successive treatments with xylazine failed to produce either vomiting or conditioned taste aversion to a novel fluid. Intact cats, however, vomited and formed a conditioned aversion. In squirrel monkeys conditioned 6 months after ablation of the area postrema, three treatments with lithium chloride failed to produce conditioned taste aversion. Intact monkeys did condition with these treatments. Neither intact nor ablated monkeys vomited or evidenced other signs of illness when injected with lithium chloride. When the same ablated cats and monkeys were exposed to a form of motion that produced vomiting prior to surgery, conditioned taste aversion can be produced after ablation of the area postrema. The utility of conditioned taste aversion as a measure of subemetic motion sickness is discussed by examining agreement and disagreement between identifications of motion sickness by conditioned taste aversion and vomiting. It is suggested that a convincing demonstration of the utility of conditioned taste aversion as a measure of nausea requires the identification of physiological correlates of nausea, and caution should be exercised when attempting to interpret conditioned taste aversion as a measure of nausea.

Neural Correlates of Decision-Making Under Ambiguity and Conflict.

PubMed

Pushkarskaya, Helen; Smithson, Michael; Joseph, Jane E; Corbly, Christine; Levy, Ifat

2015-01-01

HIGHLIGHTS We use a simple gambles design in an fMRI study to compare two conditions: ambiguity and conflict.Participants were more conflict averse than ambiguity averse.Ambiguity aversion did not correlate with conflict aversion.Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex correlated with ambiguity level and ambiguity aversion.Activation in the ventral striatum correlated with conflict level and conflict aversion. Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities ("ambiguity"). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on expected value. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across participants. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. These novel results indicate that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Neural Correlates of Decision-Making Under Ambiguity and Conflict

PubMed Central

Pushkarskaya, Helen; Smithson, Michael; Joseph, Jane E.; Corbly, Christine; Levy, Ifat

2015-01-01

HIGHLIGHTS We use a simple gambles design in an fMRI study to compare two conditions: ambiguity and conflict.Participants were more conflict averse than ambiguity averse.Ambiguity aversion did not correlate with conflict aversion.Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex correlated with ambiguity level and ambiguity aversion.Activation in the ventral striatum correlated with conflict level and conflict aversion. Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on expected value. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across participants. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. These novel results indicate that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research. PMID:26640434

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

PubMed

Simioni, Samanta; Schluep, Myriam; Bault, Nadège; Coricelli, Giorgio; Kleeberg, Joerg; Du Pasquier, Renaud A; Gschwind, Markus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Annoni, Jean-Marie

2012-01-01

Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Effects of pharmacological manipulation of the kappa opioid receptors on the aversive effects of nicotine.

PubMed

Ward, Melissa; Norman, Haval; D'Souza, Manoranjan S

2018-02-15

Nicotine, an addictive component of tobacco smoke, produces both rewarding and aversive effects. Increasing the aversive effects of nicotine may help in promoting smoking cessation. However, neural targets mediating the aversive effects of nicotine have not been fully identified. In this study, we evaluated the role of kappa opioid receptors (KORs) in the aversive effects of nicotine (0.4 mg/kg, base; s.c.) using the nicotine-induced conditioned taste aversion (CTA) model in Wistar rats. The KORs were activated using the selective KOR agonist (±)U-50,488H (0, 0.03, 0.15 & 0.3mg/kg; s.c.) and inhibited using the KOR antagonist nor-binaltorphimine (nor-BNI; 0, 15 & 30mg/kg; s.c.) in separate groups of rats using a between-subjects design. Pretreatment with the KOR agonist (±)U-50,488H (0.3mg/kg) significantly increased aversion for the nicotine-associated solution. Additionally, (±)U-50,488H (0.3mg/kg) on its own induced aversion to the flavored solution associated with it even in the absence of nicotine, suggesting that the KOR agonist induced increase in nicotine-induced aversion was an additive effect. Interestingly, administration of the KOR antagonist nor-BNI (30mg/kg) prior to conditioning with nicotine/saline, but not after conditioning with nicotine/saline, attenuated nicotine-induced aversive effects compared to saline controls. Taken together, these data suggest a role for KORs in the aversive effects of nicotine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of cocaine, alcohol and cocaine/alcohol combinations in conditioned taste aversion learning.

PubMed

Busse, Gregory D; Verendeev, Andrey; Jones, Jermaine; Riley, Anthony L

2005-09-01

We have recently reported that alcohol attenuates cocaine place preferences. Although the basis for this effect is unknown, alcohol may attenuate cocaine reward by potentiating its aversive effects. To examine this possibility, these experiments assessed the effects of alcohol on cocaine-induced taste aversions under conditions similar to those that resulted in attenuated place preferences. Specifically, Experiments 1 and 2 assessed the effects of alcohol (0.5 g/kg) on taste aversions induced by 20, 30 and 40 mg/kg cocaine. Experiment 3 examined the role of intertrial interval in the effects of alcohol (0.5 g/kg) on cocaine (30 mg/kg) taste aversions. In Experiments 1 and 2, cocaine was effective at conditioning aversions. Alcohol produced no measurable effect. Combining cocaine and alcohol produced no greater aversion than cocaine alone (and, in fact, weakened aversions at the lowest dose of cocaine). In Experiment 3, varying the intertrial interval from 3 days (as in the case of Experiments 1 and 2) to 1 day (a procedure identical to that in which alcohol attenuated cocaine place preferences) resulted in significant alcohol- and cocaine-induced taste aversions. Nonetheless, alcohol remained ineffective in potentiating cocaine aversions. Thus, under these conditions alcohol does not potentiate cocaine's aversiveness. These results were discussed in terms of their implication for the effects of alcohol on cocaine-induced place preferences. Further, the effects of alcohol on place preferences conditioned by cocaine were discussed in relation to other assessments of the effects of alcohol on the affective properties of cocaine and the implications of these interactions for alcohol and cocaine co-use.

The effects of nicotine on ethanol-induced conditioned taste aversions in Long-Evans rats.

PubMed

Rinker, Jennifer A; Busse, Gregory D; Roma, Peter G; Chen, Scott A; Barr, Christina S; Riley, Anthony L

2008-04-01

Overall drug acceptability is thought to be a function of the balance between its rewarding and aversive effects, the latter of which is reportedly affected by polydrug use. Given that nicotine and alcohol are commonly co-used, the present experiments sought to assess nicotine's impact on ethanol's aversive effects within a conditioned taste aversion design. Experiment 1 examined various doses of nicotine (0, 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 mg/kg) to determine a behaviorally active dose, and experiment 2 examined various doses of ethanol (0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 g/kg) to determine a dose that produced intermediate aversions. Experiment 3 then examined the aversive effects of nicotine (0.8 mg/kg) and ethanol (1.0 g/kg) alone and in combination. Additionally, nicotine's effects on blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) and ethanol-induced hypothermia were examined. Nicotine and ethanol combined produced aversions significantly greater than those produced by either drug alone or the summed aversive effects of the individual compounds. These effects were unrelated to changes in BAC, but nicotine and ethanol combined produced a prolonged hypothermic effect which may contribute to the increased aversions induced by the combination. These data demonstrate that nicotine may interact with ethanol, increasing ethanol's aversive effects. Although the rewarding effects of concurrently administered nicotine and ethanol were not assessed, these data do indicate that the reported high incidence of nicotine and ethanol co-use is unlikely due to reductions in the aversiveness of ethanol with concurrently administered nicotine. It is more likely attributable to nicotine-related changes in ethanol's rewarding effects.

Modeling Individual Patient Preferences for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Their Tolerance for Complications Risk.

PubMed

Taksler, Glen B; Perzynski, Adam T; Kattan, Michael W

2017-04-01

Recommendations for colorectal cancer screening encourage patients to choose among various screening methods based on individual preferences for benefits, risks, screening frequency, and discomfort. We devised a model to illustrate how individuals with varying tolerance for screening complications risk might decide on their preferred screening strategy. We developed a discrete-time Markov mathematical model that allowed hypothetical individuals to maximize expected lifetime utility by selecting screening method, start age, stop age, and frequency. Individuals could choose from stool-based testing every 1 to 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 1 to 20 years with annual stool-based testing, colonoscopy every 1 to 20 years, or no screening. We compared the life expectancy gained from the chosen strategy with the life expectancy available from a benchmark strategy of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual at average risk of colorectal cancer who was risk neutral with respect to screening complications (and therefore was willing to undergo screening if it would actuarially increase life expectancy), the model predicted that he or she would choose colonoscopy every 10 years, from age 53 to 73 years, consistent with national guidelines. For a similar individual who was moderately averse to screening complications risk (and therefore required a greater increase in life expectancy to accept potential risks of colonoscopy), the model predicted that he or she would prefer flexible sigmoidoscopy every 12 years with annual stool-based testing, with 93% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual with higher risk aversion, the model predicted that he or she would prefer 2 lifetime flexible sigmoidoscopies, 20 years apart, with 70% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. Mathematical models may formalize how individuals with different risk attitudes choose between various guideline-recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies.

Cassandra's regret: The psychology of not wanting to know.

PubMed

Gigerenzer, Gerd; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio

2017-03-01

Ignorance is generally pictured as an unwanted state of mind, and the act of willful ignorance may raise eyebrows. Yet people do not always want to know, demonstrating a lack of curiosity at odds with theories postulating a general need for certainty, ambiguity aversion, or the Bayesian principle of total evidence. We propose a regret theory of deliberate ignorance that covers both negative feelings that may arise from foreknowledge of negative events, such as death and divorce, and positive feelings of surprise and suspense that may arise from foreknowledge of positive events, such as knowing the sex of an unborn child. We conduct the first representative nationwide studies to estimate the prevalence and predictability of deliberate ignorance for a sample of 10 events. Its prevalence is high: Between 85% and 90% of people would not want to know about upcoming negative events, and 40% to 70% prefer to remain ignorant of positive events. Only 1% of participants consistently wanted to know. We also deduce and test several predictions from the regret theory: Individuals who prefer to remain ignorant are more risk averse and more frequently buy life and legal insurance. The theory also implies the time-to-event hypothesis, which states that for the regret-prone, deliberate ignorance is more likely the nearer the event approaches. We cross-validate these findings using 2 representative national quota samples in 2 European countries. In sum, we show that deliberate ignorance exists, is related to risk aversion, and can be explained as avoiding anticipatory regret. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Effects of Problem Frame and Gender on Principals' Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Paul M.; Fagley, Nancy S.; Casella, Nancy E.

2009-01-01

Research indicates people's decisions can sometimes be influenced by seemingly trivial differences in the "framing" (i.e., wording) of alternative options. The tendency to prefer risk averse options when framed positively and risky options when framed negatively is known as the framing effect. The current study examined the susceptibility of…

Teaching Sensitive Issues: Psychological Literacy as an Antidote to Pedagogic Frailty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winstone, Naomi E.; Kinchin, Ian M.

2017-01-01

Many topics within the psychology curriculum can be described as "sensitive", with potential for students to experience distress and discomfort. Given the pressure experienced by academics in Higher Education, the potential for student distress or complaints might lead lecturers to adopt a risk-averse approach to teaching, which is well…

Capitalism and Crime in the Classroom: An Analysis of Academic Dishonesty and Latent Student Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burrus, Robert T.; Jones, Adam T.; Schuhmann, Peter W.

2016-01-01

University students' latent attitudes toward capitalism were quantified and used to predict self-reported cheating behaviors. Results suggest that the relationship between student academic dishonesty and attitudes toward capitalism are complex. Students indicating a strong degree of risk aversion are less likely to report cheating behaviors.…

A Blueprint for Effective and Adaptable School District Procurement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maas, Tricia; Lake, Robin

2015-01-01

In public education, procurement reform has been all but ignored in policy discussions and procurement policies have remained virtually untouched. But the high price of ignoring procurement is becoming clear to people trying to reform education on the ground. Often involving long, cumbersome processes and risk-averse central office cultures,…

Prestige-Oriented Market Entry Strategy: The Case of Australian Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tayar, Mark; Jack, Robert

2013-01-01

Through an exploratory case study of four Australian universities this article finds that foreign market entry strategies are shaped by prestige-seeking motivations and a culture of risk aversion. From the market selection, entry mode and higher education literature, a conceptual model, embedded with four propositions, is presented. The model sees…

Is Less More? Soviet Science in the Gorbachev Era.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balzer, Harley D.

1985-01-01

Examines the gap between American and Soviet science, tracing the gap to overcentralization, an aversion to risk, and emphasis on theory at the expense of application. Indicates that Soviet leaders are aware of some of the problems but that barriers to reform remain strong and prospects for real change are limited. (JN)

Deferring Higher Education Fees without Relying on Contributions from Non-Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Del Rey, Elena

2012-01-01

The benefits of deferring the payment of higher-education costs are increasingly acknowledged as a way to overcome student-borrowing constraints. Since higher education is a risky investment and students are generally risk averse, the repayment arrangements proposed in the literature frequently include some insurance. In a competitive environment,…

The Use of "Mild" Aversive Stimuli for Control of Stereotypic and Self-Injurious Behaviors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alberto, Paul A.

The use of mild aversives to control self-injurious and stereotypic behaviors of severely emotionally disturbed children is considered. Research is reviewed on the ethics and effectiveness of aversive stimuli. Mild aversives include a form of nonseclusionary timeout known as facial screening, the administration of certain irritating substances…

Uncertainty during Anticipation Modulates Neural Responses to Aversion in Human Insula and Amygdala

PubMed Central

Sarinopoulos, I.; Grupe, D. W.; Mackiewicz, K. L.; Herrington, J. D.; Lor, M.; Steege, E. E.

2010-01-01

Uncertainty about potential negative future outcomes can cause stress and is a central feature of anxiety disorders. The stress and anxiety associated with uncertain situations may lead individuals to overestimate the frequency with which uncertain cues are followed by negative outcomes, an example of covariation bias. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found that uncertainty-related expectations modulated neural responses to aversion. Insula and amygdala responses to aversive pictures were larger after an uncertain cue (that preceded aversive or neutral pictures) than a certain cue (that always preceded aversive pictures). Anticipatory anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) activity elicited by the cues was inversely associated with the insula and amygdala responses to aversive pictures following the cues. Nearly 75% of subjects overestimated the frequency of aversive pictures following uncertain cues, and ACC and insula activity predicted this uncertainty-related covariation bias. Findings provide the first evidence of the brain mechanisms of covariation bias and highlight the temporal dynamics of ACC, insula, and amygdala recruitment for processing aversion in the context of uncertainty. PMID:19679543

Research on green supply chain coordination strategy for uncertain market demand.

PubMed

Cao, Jian; Chen, Yangyang; Lu, Bo; Tong, Chenlu; Zhou, Gengui

2015-03-01

Based on the status that the green market began to develop (e.g. pharmaceutical industry) in Mainland China, the paper mainly discusses how members of the green supply chain (GSC) cooperate effectively in the process of the supply chain operations. For the uncertainties existing in the market demand of the green products, the GSC coordination strategy is put forward based on the Stackelberg game that the manufacturer is the leader and distributors are the followers. The relationship between the proposed coordination strategy and several factors including the distributor's amount, the distributor's risk aversion and the uncertainties of market demand are analyzed. It indicates that, when there are uncertainties existing in the market demand of the green product, the revenue of each enterprise, the overall revenue and the customer's welfare all decrease; while the increase in the number of distributors and low risk aversion of them are beneficial to the entire GSC and the customer. The conclusions have good guidance for the operational decisions of the green supply chain when the green market is in its initial formation.

Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making.

PubMed

Prinz, Susanne; Gründer, Gerhard; Hilgers, Ralf D; Holtemöller, Oliver; Vernaleken, Ingo

2014-01-01

This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual's financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version). Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor "source of funding": students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships) had much higher rates of relative risk aversion (RRA) than subjects with support from family (ΔRRA = 0.22; p = 0.018). Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the intelligence quotient significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors "agreeableness" and "openness" showed moderate to modest - but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

PubMed Central

Prinz, Susanne; Gründer, Gerhard; Hilgers, Ralf D.; Holtemöller, Oliver; Vernaleken, Ingo

2014-01-01

This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version). Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor “source of funding”: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships) had much higher rates of relative risk aversion (RRA) than subjects with support from family (ΔRRA = 0.22; p = 0.018). Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the intelligence quotient significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors “agreeableness” and “openness” showed moderate to modest – but significant – effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion. PMID:24624100

Development of a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion method for planning water resources systems with a trading mechanism.

PubMed

Zeng, X T; Huang, G H; Li, Y P; Zhang, J L; Cai, Y P; Liu, Z P; Liu, L R

2016-12-01

This study developed a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion (FSGZ) method for water resources allocation and water quality management with a trading-mechanism (WAQT) under uncertainties. FSGZ can handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, and it can also quantify objective/subjective fuzziness in the decision-making process. Risk-averse attitudes and robustness coefficient are joined to express the relationship between the expected target and outcome under various risk preferences of decision makers and systemic robustness. The developed method is applied to a real-world case of WAQT in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin in northwest China, where an effective mechanism (e.g., market trading) to simultaneously confront severely diminished water availability and degraded water quality is required. Results of water transaction amounts, water allocation patterns, pollution mitigation schemes, and system benefits under various scenarios are analyzed, which indicate that a trading-mechanism is a more sustainable method to manage water-environment crisis in the study region. Additionally, consideration of anthropogenic (e.g., a risk-averse attitude) and systemic factors (e.g., the robustness coefficient) can support the generation of a robust plan associated with risk control for WAQT when uncertainty is present. These findings assist local policy and decision makers to gain insights into water-environment capacity planning to balance the basin's social and economic growth with protecting the region's ecosystems.

Anticipation of high arousal aversive and positive movie clips engages common and distinct neural substrates

PubMed Central

Carlson, Joshua M.; Rubin, Denis; Cha, Jiook; Mujica-Parodi, Lilianne

2015-01-01

The neural correlates of anxious anticipation have been primarily studied with aversive and neutral stimuli. In this study, we examined the effect of valence on anticipation by using high arousal aversive and positive stimuli and a condition of uncertainty (i.e. either positive or aversive). The task consisted of predetermined cues warning participants of upcoming aversive, positive, ‘uncertain’ (either aversive or positive) and neutral movie clips. Anticipation of all affective clips engaged common regions including the anterior insula, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, thalamus, caudate, inferior parietal and prefrontal cortex that are associated with emotional experience, sustained attention and appraisal. In contrast, the nucleus accumbens and medial prefrontal cortex, regions implicated in reward processing, were selectively engaged during anticipation of positive clips (depicting sexually explicit content) and the mid-insula, which has been linked to processing aversive stimuli, was selectively engaged during anticipation of aversive clips (depicting graphic medical procedures); these three areas were also activated during anticipation of ‘uncertain’ clips reflecting a broad preparatory response for both aversive and positive stimuli. These results suggest that a common circuitry is recruited in anticipation of affective clips regardless of valence, with additional areas preferentially engaged depending on whether expected stimuli are negative or positive. PMID:24984958

The increased risk of joint venture promotes social cooperation.

PubMed

Wu, Te; Fu, Feng; Zhang, Yanling; Wang, Long

2013-01-01

The joint venture of many members is common both in animal world and human society. In these public enterprizes, highly cooperative groups are more likely to while low cooperative groups are still possible but not probable to succeed. Existent literature mostly focuses on the traditional public goods game, in which cooperators create public wealth unconditionally and benefit all group members unbiasedly. We here institute a model addressing this public goods dilemma with incorporating the public resource foraging failure risk. Risk-averse individuals tend to lead a autarkic life, while risk-preferential ones tend to participate in the risky public goods game. For participants, group's success relies on its cooperativeness, with increasing contribution leading to increasing success likelihood. We introduce a function with one tunable parameter to describe the risk removal pattern and study in detail three representative classes. Analytical results show that the widely replicated population dynamics of cyclical dominance of loner, cooperator and defector disappear, while most of the time loners act as savors while eventually they also disappear. Depending on the way that group's success relies on its cooperativeness, either cooperators pervade the entire population or they coexist with defectors. Even in the later case, cooperators still hold salient superiority in number as some defectors also survive by parasitizing. The harder the joint venture succeeds, the higher level of cooperation once cooperators can win the evolutionary race. Our work may enrich the literature concerning the risky public goods games.

The Increased Risk of Joint Venture Promotes Social Cooperation

PubMed Central

Wu, Te; Fu, Feng; Zhang, Yanling; Wang, Long

2013-01-01

The joint venture of many members is common both in animal world and human society. In these public enterprizes, highly cooperative groups are more likely to while low cooperative groups are still possible but not probable to succeed. Existent literature mostly focuses on the traditional public goods game, in which cooperators create public wealth unconditionally and benefit all group members unbiasedly. We here institute a model addressing this public goods dilemma with incorporating the public resource foraging failure risk. Risk-averse individuals tend to lead a autarkic life, while risk-preferential ones tend to participate in the risky public goods game. For participants, group's success relies on its cooperativeness, with increasing contribution leading to increasing success likelihood. We introduce a function with one tunable parameter to describe the risk removal pattern and study in detail three representative classes. Analytical results show that the widely replicated population dynamics of cyclical dominance of loner, cooperator and defector disappear, while most of the time loners act as savors while eventually they also disappear. Depending on the way that group's success relies on its cooperativeness, either cooperators pervade the entire population or they coexist with defectors. Even in the later case, cooperators still hold salient superiority in number as some defectors also survive by parasitizing. The harder the joint venture succeeds, the higher level of cooperation once cooperators can win the evolutionary race. Our work may enrich the literature concerning the risky public goods games. PMID:23750204

Mediators of the Relationship Between Sexual Assault and Sexual Behaviors in College Women.

PubMed

Kelley, Erika L; Gidycz, Christine A

2017-07-01

Some research shows that sexual assault victimization is associated with increased engagement in risky sexual behavior (e.g., intercourse without use of a condom or contraceptives), whereas other research indicates sexual assault victimization is related to sexual aversion. The purpose of the current study was to examine whether posttraumatic stress symptoms, alcohol use, and sexual assertiveness mediated the relationship between adolescent/emerging adulthood sexual assault (ASA) and risky sexual behavior, and whether posttraumatic stress symptoms mediated the relationship between ASA and sexual aversion, among college women. A sample of 462 women from a Midwestern university completed online questionnaires assessing ASA, child sexual abuse (CSA), posttraumatic stress symptoms (i.e., intrusion, avoidance, hyperarousal, and dissociation), alcohol use, sexual assertiveness, risky sexual behavior, and sexual aversion. CSA was considered as a covariate in the mediation models. Results of mediation analyses showed that the relationship between ASA and risky sexual behavior with a new partner was partially mediated by greater alcohol use and lower sexual assertiveness and that the relationship between ASA and risky sexual behavior with a regular partner was partially mediated by greater alcohol use. Results of a model examining mediators of ASA and sexual aversion detected no significant mediators. Results suggest that college women with a history of ASA would benefit from psychoeducation on the effect of alcohol on sexual decision-making, as well as from sexual assertiveness skills training, to reduce potential risks associated with risky sexual behaviors, particularly with lesser known partners, including sexually transmitted infections and sexual revictimization.

Exaggerated acquisition and resistance to extinction of avoidance behavior in treated heroin-dependent males

PubMed Central

Sheynin, Jony; Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Beck, Kevin D.; Servatius, Richard J.; Casbolt, Peter A.; Haber, Paul; Elsayed, Mahmoud; Hogarth, Lee; Myers, Catherine E.

2015-01-01

Objective Addiction is often conceptualized as a behavioral strategy for avoiding negative experiences. In rodents, opioid intake has been associated with abnormal acquisition and extinction of avoidance behavior. Here, we tested the hypothesis that these findings would generalize to human opioid-dependent subjects. Method Adults meeting DSM-IV criteria for heroin-dependence and treated with opioid medication (n=27), and healthy controls (n=26), were recruited between March–October 2013 and given a computer-based task to assess avoidance behavior. On this task, subjects controlled a spaceship and could either gain points by shooting an enemy spaceship, or hide in safe areas to avoid on-screen aversive events. Results While groups did not differ on escape responding (hiding) during the aversive event, heroin-dependent males (but not females) made more avoidance responses during a warning signal that predicted the aversive event (ANOVA, sex × group interaction, p=0.007). This group was also slower to extinguish the avoidance response when the aversive event no longer followed the warning signal (p=0.011). This behavioral pattern resulted in reduced opportunity to obtain reward without reducing risk of punishment. Results suggest that differences in avoidance behavior cannot be easily explained by impaired task performance or by exaggerated motor activity in male patients. Conclusion This study provides evidence for abnormal acquisition and extinction of avoidance behavior in opioid-dependent patients. Interestingly, data suggest abnormal avoidance is demonstrated only by male patients. Findings shed light on cognitive and behavioral manifestations of opioid addiction, and may facilitate development of therapeutic approaches to help affected individuals. PMID:27046310

Modulation of the conflict monitoring intensity: the role of aversive reinforcement, cognitive demand, and trait-BIS.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Lange, Sebastian; Beauducel, André

2012-06-01

According to Botvinick's (2007) integrative account, conflict monitoring is aversive because individuals anticipate cognitive demand, whereas the revised reinforcement sensitivity theory (rRST) predicts that conflict processing is aversive because individuals anticipate aversive reinforcement of erroneous responses. Because these accounts give different reasons for the aversive aspects of conflict, we manipulated cognitive demand and the aversive reinforcement as a consequence of wrong choices in a go/no-go task. Thereby, we also aimed to investigate whether individual differences in conflict sensitivity (i.e., in trait anxiety, linked to high sensitivity of the behavioral inhibition system [trait-BIS]) represent the effects of aversive reinforcement and cognitive demand in conflict tasks. We expected that these manipulations would have effects on the frontal N2 component representing activity of the anterior cingulate cortex. Moreover, higher-trait-BIS individuals should be more sensitive than lower-trait-BIS individuals to aversive effects in conflict situations, resulting in a more negative frontal N2 for higher-trait-BIS individuals. In Study 1, with N = 104 students, and Study 2, with N = 47 students, aversive reinforcement was manipulated in three levels (within-subjects factor) and cognitive demand in two levels (between-subjects factor). The behavioral findings from the go/no-go task with noncounterbalanced reinforcement levels (Study 1) could be widely replicated in a task with counterbalanced reinforcement levels (Study 2). The frontal mean no-go N2 amplitude and the frontal no-go N2 dipole captured predicted reinforcement-related variations of conflict monitoring, indicating that the anticipation of aversive reinforcement induces variations in conflict monitoring intensity in frontal brain areas. The aversive nature of conflict was underlined by the more pronounced conflict monitoring in higher- than in lower-trait-BIS individuals.

Recognition by Rats of Binary Taste Solutions and Their Components.

PubMed

Katagawa, Yoshihisa; Yasuo, Toshiaki; Suwabe, Takeshi; Yamamura, Tomoki; Gen, Keika; Sako, Noritaka

2016-09-13

This behavioral study investigated how rats conditioned to binary mixtures of preferred and aversive taste stimuli, respectively, responded to the individual components in a conditioned taste aversion (CTA) paradigm. The preference of stimuli was determined based on the initial results of 2 bottle preference test. The preferred stimuli included 5mM sodium saccharin (Sacc), 0.03M NaCl (Na), 0.1M Na, 5mM Sacc + 0.03M Na, and 5mM Sacc + 0.2mM quinine hydrochloride (Q), whereas the aversive stimuli tested were 1.0M Na, 0.2mM Q, 0.3mM Q, 5mM Sacc + 1.0M Na, and 5mM Sacc + 0.3mM Q. In CTA tests where LiCl was the unconditioned stimulus, the number of licks to the preferred binary mixtures and to all tested preferred components were significantly less than in control rats. No significant difference resulted between the number of licks to the aversive binary mixtures or to all tested aversive components. However, when rats pre-exposed to the aversive components contained of the aversive binary mixtures were conditioned to these mixtures, the number of licks to all the tested stimuli was significantly less than in controls. Rats conditioned to components of the aversive binary mixtures generalized to the binary mixtures containing those components. These results suggest that rats recognize and remember preferred and aversive taste mixtures as well as the preferred and aversive components of the binary mixtures, and that pre-exposure before CTA is an available method to study the recognition of aversive taste stimuli. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Decision Making for Animal Health and Welfare: Integrating Risk-Benefit Analysis with Prospect Theory

PubMed Central

Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

2013-01-01

This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers’ choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers’ assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers’ management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. PMID:24372180

Buprenorphine and a CRF1 antagonist block the acquisition of opiate withdrawal-induced conditioned place aversion in rats.

PubMed

Stinus, Luis; Cador, Martine; Zorrilla, Eric P; Koob, George F

2005-01-01

Conditioned place aversion in rats has face validity as a measure of the aversive stimulus effects of opiate withdrawal that reflects an important motivational component of opiate dependence. The purpose of the present study was to validate conditioned place aversion as sensitive to medications that will alleviate the aversive stimulus effects of opiate withdrawal in humans, and to extend this model to the exploration of the neuropharmacological basis of the motivational effects of opiate withdrawal. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were implanted with two subcutaneous morphine pellets and 5 days later began place conditioning training following subcutaneous administration of a low dose of naloxone. Animals were subjected to three pairings of a low dose of naloxone (15 microg/kg, s.c.) to one arm of a three-chambered place conditioning apparatus. Buprenorphine administered prior to each pairing dose-dependently blocked the place aversion produced by precipitated opiate withdrawal. A corticotropin-releasing factor-1 (CRF1) receptor antagonist (antalarmin) also reversed the place aversion produced by precipitated opiate withdrawal. Antalarmin did not produce a place preference or place aversion by itself in morphine-dependent rats. No effect was observed with pretreatment of the dopamine partial agonist terguride or the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor fluoxetine. Also, chronic pretreatment with acamprosate (a glutamate receptor modulator used to prevent relapse in alcohol dependence) did not alter naloxone-induced place aversion. Buprenorphine by itself in dependent rats produced a mild place preference at low doses and a mild place aversion at higher doses. These results suggest that buprenorphine blocks the aversive stimulus effects of precipitated opiate withdrawal in rats and provides some validity for the use of place conditioning as a measure that is sensitive to potential opiate-dependence medications. In addition, these results suggest that CRF1 antagonists can block the aversive stimulus effects of opiate withdrawal and may be potential therapeutic targets for opiate dependence.

Innate food aversions and culturally transmitted food taboos in pregnant women in rural southwest India: separate systems to protect the fetus?

PubMed

Placek, Caitlyn D; Madhivanan, Purnima; Hagen, Edward H

2017-11-01

Pregnancy increases women's nutritional requirements, yet causes aversions to nutritious foods. Most societies further restrict pregnant women's diet with food taboos. Pregnancy food aversions are theorized to protect mothers and fetuses from teratogens and pathogens or increase dietary diversity in response to resource scarcity. Tests of these hypotheses have had mixed results, perhaps because many studies are in Westernized populations with reliable access to food and low exposure to pathogens. If pregnancy food aversions are adaptations, however, then they likely evolved in environments with uncertain access to food and high exposure to pathogens. Pregnancy food taboos, on the other hand, have been theorized to limit resource consumption, mark social identity, or also protect mothers and fetuses from dangerous foods. There have been few tests of evolutionary theories of culturally transmitted food taboos. We investigated these and other theories of psychophysiological food aversions and culturally transmitted food taboos among two non-Western populations of pregnant women in Mysore, India, that vary in food insecurity and exposure to infectious disease. The first was a mixed caste rural farming population ( N = 72), and the second was the Jenu Kurubas , a resettled population of former hunter-gatherers ( N = 30). Women rated their aversions to photos of 31 foods and completed structured interviews that assessed aversions and socially learned avoidances of foods, pathogen exposure, food insecurity, sources of culturally acquired dietary advice, and basic sociodemographic information. Aversions to spicy foods were associated with early trimester and nausea and vomiting, supporting a protective role against plant teratogens. Variation in exposure to pathogens did not explain variation in meat aversions or avoidances, however, raising some doubts about the importance of pathogen avoidance. Aversions to staple foods were common, but were not associated with resource stress, providing mixed support for the role of dietary diversification. Avoided foods outnumbered aversive foods, were believed to be abortifacients or otherwise harmful to the fetus, influenced diet throughout pregnancy, and were largely distinct from aversive foods. These results suggest that aversions target foods with cues of toxicity early in pregnancy, and taboos target suspected abortifacients throughout pregnancy.

Betting on DBS: Effects of subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation on risk taking and decision making in patients with Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Brandt, Jason; Rogerson, Mark; Al-Joudi, Haya; Reckess, Gila; Shpritz, Barnett; Umeh, Chizoba C; Aljehani, Noha; Mills, Kelly; Mari, Zoltan

2015-07-01

Concerns persist that deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson's disease (PD) increases impulsivity or induces excessive reward seeking. We report here the performance of PD patients with implanted subthalamic nucleus electrodes, with stimulation on and off, on 3 laboratory tasks of risk taking and decision making. They are compared with PD patients maintained on medication and healthy participants. In the Game of Dice Task, a test of "risky" decision making, PD patients with or without DBS made highest risk bets more often and ended up with less money than did healthy participants. There was a trend for DBS stimulation to ameliorate this effect. Deal or No-Deal is an "ambiguous" decision-making task that assessed preference for risk (holding on to one's briefcase) over a "sure thing" (accepting the banker's offer). Here, DBS patients were more conservative with stimulation on than with it off. They accepted smaller offers from the banker and won less money in the DBS-on condition. Overall, the 2 PD groups won less money than did healthy participants. The Framing Paradigm assessed willingness to gamble on a fixed (unambiguous) prize depending on whether the reward was "framed" as a loss or a gain. Nonsurgical PD patients tended to be more risk-averse than were healthy participants, whereas DBS patients were more willing to gamble for gains as well as losses both on and off stimulation. On risky decision-making tasks, DBS patients took more risks than did healthy participants, but stimulation may temper this tendency. In contrast, in an ambiguous-risk situation, DBS patients were more risk-averse (conservative) than were healthy participants, and this tendency was greatest with stimulation. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Patient-accessible tool for shared decision making in cardiovascular primary prevention: balancing longevity benefits against medication disutility.

PubMed

Fontana, Marianna; Asaria, Perviz; Moraldo, Michela; Finegold, Judith; Hassanally, Khalil; Manisty, Charlotte H; Francis, Darrel P

2014-06-17

Primary prevention guidelines focus on risk, often assuming negligible aversion to medication, yet most patients discontinue primary prevention statins within 3 years. We quantify real-world distribution of medication disutility and separately calculate the average utilities for a range of risk strata. We randomly sampled 360 members of the general public in London. Medication aversion was quantified as the gain in lifespan required by each individual to offset the inconvenience (disutility) of taking an idealized daily preventative tablet. In parallel, we constructed tables of expected gain in lifespan (utility) from initiating statin therapy for each age group, sex, and cardiovascular risk profile in the population. This allowed comparison of the widths of the distributions of medication disutility and of group-average expectation of longevity gain. Observed medication disutility ranged from 1 day to >10 years of life being required by subjects (median, 6 months; interquartile range, 1-36 months) to make daily preventative therapy worthwhile. Average expected longevity benefit from statins at ages ≥50 years ranges from 3.6 months (low-risk women) to 24.3 months (high-risk men). We can no longer assume that medication disutility is almost zero. Over one-quarter of subjects had disutility exceeding the group-average longevity gain from statins expected even for the highest-risk (ie, highest-gain) group. Future primary prevention studies might explore medication disutility in larger populations. Patients may differ more in disutility than in prospectively definable utility (which provides only group-average estimates). Consultations could be enriched by assessing disutility and exploring its reasons. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

The role of time and risk preferences in smoking inequalities: a population-based study.

PubMed

Jusot, Florence; Khlat, Myriam

2013-05-01

Heterogeneity in time and risk preferences has been proposed as one of the mechanisms involved in the educational gradient in smoking, but this mechanism has scarcely been explored empirically. Subjective scales were introduced in the 2008 French National Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey in order to elicit measures of time and risk preferences for a representative sample of 5188 men and 5684 women. Men and women were treated separately. First, logistic regressions were used to test the associations between preferences and education and between preferences and smoking. Second, nested logistic models were built to investigate the mediating role of preferences in the educational gradient in smoking, with an econometric treatment of the rescaling problem. Preference for the present and risk loving were found to be: inversely related to educational level; strongly related to each other, and; strongly associated to current smoking, even after adjustment for educational level. There was a weakening of the educational gradient after the control for preferences, which supports the role of these two preferences as partial mediators in the educational gradient in smoking. Among men, time preference was more strongly associated with smoking than risk aversion, while the reverse was found for women. We provide convincing evidence in favour of the mediating role of time preference and risk aversion in educational inequalities in smoking and highlight the connection between those two dimensions. Gender patterns are discussed and potential implications in terms of designing targeted anti-tobacco programmes are delineated. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aversive Learning and Trait Aggression Influence Retaliatory Behavior.

PubMed

Molapour, Tanaz; Lindström, Björn; Olsson, Andreas

2016-01-01

In two experiments (n = 35, n = 34), we used a modified fear-conditioning paradigm to investigate the role of aversive learning in retaliatory behavior in social context. Participants first completed an initial aversive learning phase in which the pairing of a neutral conditioned stimulus (CS; i.e., neutral face) with a naturally aversive unconditioned stimulus (US; electric shock) was learned. Then they were given an opportunity to interact (i.e., administer 0-2 shocks) with the same faces again, during a Test phase. In Experiment 2, we used the same paradigm with the addition of online trial-by-trial ratings (e.g., US expectancy and anger) to examine the role of aversive learning, anger, and the learned expectancy of receiving punishment more closely. Our results indicate that learned aversions influenced future retaliation in a social context. In both experiments, participants showed largest skin conductance responses (SCRs) to the faces paired with one or two shocks, demonstrating successful aversive learning. Importantly, participants administered more shocks to the faces paired with the most number of shocks when the opportunity was given during test. Also, our results revealed that aggressive traits (Buss and Perry Aggression scale) were associated with retaliation only toward CSs associated with aversive experiences. These two experiments show that aggressive traits, when paired with aversive learning experiences enhance the likelihood to act anti-socially toward others.

Anticipation of high arousal aversive and positive movie clips engages common and distinct neural substrates.

PubMed

Greenberg, Tsafrir; Carlson, Joshua M; Rubin, Denis; Cha, Jiook; Mujica-Parodi, Lilianne

2015-04-01

The neural correlates of anxious anticipation have been primarily studied with aversive and neutral stimuli. In this study, we examined the effect of valence on anticipation by using high arousal aversive and positive stimuli and a condition of uncertainty (i.e. either positive or aversive). The task consisted of predetermined cues warning participants of upcoming aversive, positive, 'uncertain' (either aversive or positive) and neutral movie clips. Anticipation of all affective clips engaged common regions including the anterior insula, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, thalamus, caudate, inferior parietal and prefrontal cortex that are associated with emotional experience, sustained attention and appraisal. In contrast, the nucleus accumbens and medial prefrontal cortex, regions implicated in reward processing, were selectively engaged during anticipation of positive clips (depicting sexually explicit content) and the mid-insula, which has been linked to processing aversive stimuli, was selectively engaged during anticipation of aversive clips (depicting graphic medical procedures); these three areas were also activated during anticipation of 'uncertain' clips reflecting a broad preparatory response for both aversive and positive stimuli. These results suggest that a common circuitry is recruited in anticipation of affective clips regardless of valence, with additional areas preferentially engaged depending on whether expected stimuli are negative or positive. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The ontogeny of ethanol aversion.

PubMed

Saalfield, Jessica; Spear, Linda

2016-03-15

Recent work has suggested separate developmental periods within the broader framework of adolescence, with data suggesting distinct alterations and vulnerabilities within these intervals. While previous research has suggested reduced sensitivity to the aversive effects of alcohol in adolescence relative to adults, a more detailed ontogeny of this effect has yet to be conducted. The adolescent brain undergoes significant transitions throughout adolescence, including in regions linked with drug reward and aversion. The current study aimed to determine the ontogeny of ethanol aversion by utilizing a conditioned taste aversion procedure at six different ages to test the hypothesis that the transitions into, through, and out of adolescence are associated with ontogenetic alterations in sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol. Non-deprived animals given Boost® as the conditioned stimulus (CS) were used in Experiment 1, whereas Experiment 2 used water-restricted animals provided with a saccharin/sucrose solution as the CS. In both experiments, an attenuated sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol was evident in adolescents compared to adults, although more age differences were apparent in water deprived animals than when a highly palatable CS was given to ad libitum animals. Overall, the data suggest an attenuated sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol that is most pronounced during pre- and early adolescence, declining thereafter to reach the enhanced aversive sensitivity of adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aversive Learning and Trait Aggression Influence Retaliatory Behavior

PubMed Central

Molapour, Tanaz; Lindström, Björn; Olsson, Andreas

2016-01-01

In two experiments (n = 35, n = 34), we used a modified fear-conditioning paradigm to investigate the role of aversive learning in retaliatory behavior in social context. Participants first completed an initial aversive learning phase in which the pairing of a neutral conditioned stimulus (CS; i.e., neutral face) with a naturally aversive unconditioned stimulus (US; electric shock) was learned. Then they were given an opportunity to interact (i.e., administer 0–2 shocks) with the same faces again, during a Test phase. In Experiment 2, we used the same paradigm with the addition of online trial-by-trial ratings (e.g., US expectancy and anger) to examine the role of aversive learning, anger, and the learned expectancy of receiving punishment more closely. Our results indicate that learned aversions influenced future retaliation in a social context. In both experiments, participants showed largest skin conductance responses (SCRs) to the faces paired with one or two shocks, demonstrating successful aversive learning. Importantly, participants administered more shocks to the faces paired with the most number of shocks when the opportunity was given during test. Also, our results revealed that aggressive traits (Buss and Perry Aggression scale) were associated with retaliation only toward CSs associated with aversive experiences. These two experiments show that aggressive traits, when paired with aversive learning experiences enhance the likelihood to act anti-socially toward others. PMID:27375520

Onset and Offset of Aversive Events Establish Distinct Memories Requiring Fear and Reward Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andreatta, Marta; Fendt, Markus; Muhlberger, Andreas; Wieser, Matthias J.; Imobersteg, Stefan; Yarali, Ayse; Gerber, Bertram; Pauli, Paul

2012-01-01

Two things are worth remembering about an aversive event: What made it happen? What made it cease? If a stimulus precedes an aversive event, it becomes a signal for threat and will later elicit behavior indicating conditioned fear. However, if the stimulus is presented upon cessation of the aversive event, it elicits behavior indicating…

Flood-conditioned place aversion as a novel non-pharmacological aversive learning procedure in mice.

PubMed

Goltseker, Koral; Barak, Segev

2018-05-08

The place conditioning paradigm is an efficient, widely-used method to study mechanisms that underlie appetitive or aversive learning and memory processes. However, pharmacological agents used to induce conditioned place preference (CPP) or aversion (CPA) can per se interfere with learning and memory processing, hence confounding the results. Therefore, non-pharmacological place conditioning procedures are of high importance. Here, we introduce a novel procedure for induction of CPA in mice, by water flooding. We found that pairing a context with immersion in moderately cold shallow water resulted in aversion and avoidance of that context during a place preference test. Importantly, place aversion emerged only when mice experienced the onset of flood during conditioning training, but not when mice were placed in a compartment pre-filled with water. We also found that warm water was not sufficiently aversive to induce CPA. Moreover, CPA was observed after two or three context-flood pairings but not after one or four pairings, suggesting that moderate conditioning intensity produces optimal CPA expression. Thus, flood-induced CPA is a simple, cheap, and efficient procedure to form and measure place aversion memories in mice, using an ethologically-relevant threat.

Assessing fear and anxiety in humans using the threat of predictable and unpredictable aversive events (the NPU-threat test)

PubMed Central

Schmitz, Anja; Grillon, Christian

2012-01-01

The threat of predictable and unpredictable aversive events was developed to assess short-duration (fear) and long-duration (anxiety) aversive states in humans. A typical experiment consists of three conditions: a safe condition (neutral (N)), during which participants are safe from aversive stimuli, and two threat conditions—one in which aversive events are administered predictably (P) (i.e., signaled by a threat cue), and one in which aversive stimuli are administered unpredictably (U). During the so-called NPU -threat test, ongoing change in aversive states is measured with the startle reflex. The NPU -threat test has been validated in pharmacological and clinical studies and can be implemented in children and adults. Similar procedures have been applied in animal models, making the NPU -threat test an ideal tool for translational research. The procedure is relatively short (35 min), simple to implement and generates consistent results with large effect sizes. PMID:22362158

Neural Markers of Attention to Aversive Pictures Predict Response to Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Anxiety and Depression

PubMed Central

Stange, Jonathan P.; MacNamara, Annmarie; Barnas, Olga; Kennedy, Amy E.; Hajcak, Greg; Phan, K Luan; Klumpp, Heide

2016-01-01

Excessive attention toward aversive information may be a core mechanism underlying emotional disorders, but little is known about whether this is predictive of response to treatments. We evaluated whether enhanced attention toward aversive stimuli, as indexed by an event-related potential component, the late positive potential (LPP), would predict response to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in patients with social anxiety disorder and/or major depressive disorder. Thirty-two patients receiving 12 weeks of CBT responded to briefly-presented pairs of aversive and neutral pictures that served as targets or distracters while electroencephaolography was recorded. Patients with larger pre-treatment LPPs to aversive relative to neutral distracters (when targets were aversive) were more likely to respond to CBT, and demonstrated larger reductions in symptoms of depression and anxiety following treatment. Increased attention toward irrelevant aversive stimuli may signal attenuated top-down control, so treatments like CBT that improve this control could be beneficial for these individuals. PMID:27784617

Narrative Aversion: Challenges for the Illness Narrative Advocate.

PubMed

Behrendt, Kathy

2017-02-01

Engaging in self-narrative is often touted as a powerful antidote to the bad effects of illness. However, there are various examples of what may broadly be termed "aversion" to illness narrative. I group these into three kinds: aversion to certain types of illness narrative; aversion to illness narrative as a whole; and aversion to illness narrative as an essentially therapeutic endeavor. These aversions can throw into doubt the advantages claimed for the illness narrator, including the key benefits of repair to the damage illness does to identity and life-trajectory. Underlying these alleged benefits are two key presuppositions: that it is the whole of one's life that is narratively unified, and that one's identity is inextricably bound up with narrative. By letting go of these assumptions, illness narrative advocates can respond to the challenges of narrative aversions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of The Journal of Medicine and Philosophy Inc. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Lesion of the rostromedial tegmental nucleus increases voluntary ethanol consumption and accelerates extinction of ethanol-induced conditioned taste aversion.

PubMed

Sheth, Chandni; Furlong, Teri M; Keefe, Kristen A; Taha, Sharif A

2016-10-01

Ethanol has rewarding and aversive properties, and the balance of these properties influences voluntary ethanol consumption. Preclinical and clinical evidence show that the aversive properties of ethanol limit intake. The neural circuits underlying ethanol-induced aversion learning are not fully understood. We have previously shown that the lateral habenula (LHb), a region critical for aversive conditioning, plays an important role in ethanol-directed behaviors. However, the neurocircuitry through which LHb exerts its actions is unknown. In the present study, we investigate a role for the rostromedial tegmental nucleus (RMTg), a major LHb projection target, in regulating ethanol-directed behaviors. Rats received either sham or RMTg lesions and were studied during voluntary ethanol consumption; operant ethanol self-administration, extinction, and yohimbine-induced reinstatement of ethanol-seeking; and ethanol-induced conditioned taste aversion (CTA). RMTg lesions increased voluntary ethanol consumption and accelerated extinction of ethanol-induced CTA. The RMTg plays an important role in regulating voluntary ethanol consumption, possibly by mediating ethanol-induced aversive conditioning.

A Moist Crevice for Word Aversion: In Semantics Not Sounds

PubMed Central

Thibodeau, Paul H.

2016-01-01

Why do people self-report an aversion to words like “moist”? The present studies represent an initial scientific exploration into the phenomenon of word aversion by investigating its prevalence and cause. Results of five experiments indicate that about 10–20% of the population is averse to the word “moist.” This population often speculates that phonological properties of the word are the cause of their displeasure. However, data from the current studies point to semantic features of the word–namely, associations with disgusting bodily functions–as a more prominent source of peoples’ unpleasant experience. “Moist,” for averse participants, was notable for its valence and personal use, rather than imagery or arousal–a finding that was confirmed by an experiment designed to induce an aversion to the word. Analyses of individual difference measures suggest that word aversion is more prevalent among younger, more educated, and more neurotic people, and is more commonly reported by females than males. PMID:27119522

Chronic pain induces generalized enhancement of aversion

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qiaosheng; Manders, Toby; Tong, Ai Phuong; Yang, Runtao; Garg, Arpan; Martinez, Erik; Zhou, Haocheng; Dale, Jahrane; Goyal, Abhinav; Urien, Louise; Yang, Guang; Chen, Zhe; Wang, Jing

2017-01-01

A hallmark feature of chronic pain is its ability to impact other sensory and affective experiences. It is notably associated with hypersensitivity at the site of tissue injury. It is less clear, however, if chronic pain can also induce a generalized site-nonspecific enhancement in the aversive response to nociceptive inputs. Here, we showed that chronic pain in one limb in rats increased the aversive response to acute pain stimuli in the opposite limb, as assessed by conditioned place aversion. Interestingly, neural activities in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) correlated with noxious intensities, and optogenetic modulation of ACC neurons showed bidirectional control of the aversive response to acute pain. Chronic pain, however, altered acute pain intensity representation in the ACC to increase the aversive response to noxious stimuli at anatomically unrelated sites. Thus, chronic pain can disrupt cortical circuitry to enhance the aversive experience in a generalized anatomically nonspecific manner. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.25302.001 PMID:28524819

Anxiety and spatial attention moderate the electrocortical response to aversive pictures.

PubMed

MacNamara, Annmarie; Hajcak, Greg

2009-11-01

Aversive stimuli capture attention and elicit increased neural activity, as indexed by behavioral, electrocortical and hemodynamic measures; moreover, individual differences in anxiety relate to a further increased sensitivity to threatening stimuli. Evidence has been mixed, however, as to whether aversive pictures elicit increased neural response when presented in unattended spatial locations. In the current study, ERP and behavioral data were recorded from 49 participants as aversive and neutral pictures were simultaneously presented in spatially attended and unattended locations; on each trial, participants made same/different judgments about pictures presented in attended locations. Aversive images presented in unattended locations resulted in increased error rate and reaction time. The late positive potential (LPP) component of the ERP was only larger when aversive images were presented in attended locations, and this increase was positively correlated with self-reported state anxiety. Findings are discussed in regard to the sensitivity of ERP and behavioral responses to aversive distracters, and in terms of increased neural processing of threatening stimuli in anxiety.

Neural markers of attention to aversive pictures predict response to cognitive behavioral therapy in anxiety and depression.

PubMed

Stange, Jonathan P; MacNamara, Annmarie; Barnas, Olga; Kennedy, Amy E; Hajcak, Greg; Phan, K Luan; Klumpp, Heide

2017-02-01

Excessive attention toward aversive information may be a core mechanism underlying emotional disorders, but little is known about whether this is predictive of response to treatments. We evaluated whether enhanced attention toward aversive stimuli, as indexed by an event-related potential component, the late positive potential (LPP), would predict response to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in patients with social anxiety disorder and/or major depressive disorder. Thirty-two patients receiving 12 weeks of CBT responded to briefly-presented pairs of aversive and neutral pictures that served as targets or distracters while electroencephaolography was recorded. Patients with larger pre-treatment LPPs to aversive relative to neutral distracters (when targets were aversive) were more likely to respond to CBT, and demonstrated larger reductions in symptoms of depression and anxiety following treatment. Increased attention toward irrelevant aversive stimuli may signal attenuated top-down control, so treatments like CBT that improve this control could be beneficial for these individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cortical activation of accumbens hyperpolarization-active NMDARs mediates aversion-resistant alcohol intake

PubMed Central

Seif, Taban; Chang, Shao-Ju; Simms, Jeffrey A; Gibb, Stuart L; Dadgar, Jahan; Chen, Billy T; Harvey, Brandon K; Ron, Dorit; Messing, Robert O; Bonci, Antonello; Hopf, F Woodward

2014-01-01

Compulsive drinking despite serious adverse medical, social and economic consequences is a characteristic of alcohol use disorders in humans. Although frontal cortical areas have been implicated in alcohol use disorders, little is known about the molecular mechanisms and pathways that sustain aversion-resistant intake. Here, we show that nucleus accumbens core (NAcore) NMDA-type glutamate receptors and medial prefrontal (mPFC) and insula glutamatergic inputs to the NAcore are necessary for aversion-resistant alcohol consumption in rats. Aversion-resistant intake was associated with a new type of NMDA receptor adaptation, in which hyperpolarization-active NMDA receptors were present at mPFC and insula but not amygdalar inputs in the NAcore. Accordingly, inhibition of Grin2c NMDA receptor subunits in the NAcore reduced aversion-resistant alcohol intake. None of these manipulations altered intake when alcohol was not paired with an aversive consequence. Our results identify a mechanism by which hyperpolarization-active NMDA receptors under mPFC- and insula-to-NAcore inputs sustain aversion-resistant alcohol intake. PMID:23817545

A Preliminary Analysis of Self-Control with Aversive Events: the Effects of Task Magnitude and Delay on the Choices of Children with Autism

PubMed Central

Lerman, Dorothea C; Addison, Laura R; Kodak, Tiffany

2006-01-01

When faced with a choice between two aversive events, a person exhibits self-control by choosing a smaller, more immediate aversive event over a larger, delayed aversive event. Task demands are often aversive to children with autism and other developmental disabilities. The purpose of this study was to evaluate behavioral sensitivity to differences in the amount and delay of tasks as part of a preliminary study on self-control. Participants were 2 children with autism who engaged in problem behavior maintained by escape. Results indicated a lack of self-control with respect to choosing between two aversive tasks and suggested potential strategies for increasing self-control (i.e., choosing a small immediate task over a large delayed task). PMID:16813043

A preliminary analysis of self-control with aversive events: the effects of task magnitude and delay on the choices of children with autism.

PubMed

Lerman, Dorothea C; Addison, Laura R; Kodak, Tiffany

2006-01-01

When faced with a choice between two aversive events, a person exhibits self-control by choosing a smaller, more immediate aversive event over a larger, delayed aversive event. Task demands are often aversive to children with autism and other developmental disabilities. The purpose of this study was to evaluate behavioral sensitivity to differences in the amount and delay of tasks as part of a preliminary study on self-control. Participants were 2 children with autism who engaged in problem behavior maintained by escape. Results indicated a lack of self-control with respect to choosing between two aversive tasks and suggested potential strategies for increasing self-control (i.e., choosing a small immediate task over a large delayed task).