The robust corrective action priority-an improved approach for selecting competing corrective actions in FMEA based on principle of robust design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno, Agung; Gunawan, Indra; Vanany, Iwan

2017-11-01

In spite of being integral part in risk - based quality improvement effort, studies improving quality of selection of corrective action priority using FMEA technique are still limited in literature. If any, none is considering robustness and risk in selecting competing improvement initiatives. This study proposed a theoretical model to select risk - based competing corrective action by considering robustness and risk of competing corrective actions. We incorporated the principle of robust design in counting the preference score among corrective action candidates. Along with considering cost and benefit of competing corrective actions, we also incorporate the risk and robustness of corrective actions. An example is provided to represent the applicability of the proposed model.

Propellant injection systems and processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ito, Jackson I.

1995-01-01

The previous 'Art of Injector Design' is maturing and merging with the more systematic 'Science of Combustion Device Analysis.' This technology can be based upon observation, correlation, experimentation and ultimately analytical modeling based upon basic engineering principles. This methodology is more systematic and far superior to the historical injector design process of 'Trial and Error' or blindly 'Copying Past Successes.' The benefit of such an approach is to be able to rank candidate design concepts for relative probability of success or technical risk in all the important combustion device design requirements and combustion process development risk categories before committing to an engine development program. Even if a single analytical design concept cannot be developed to predict satisfying all requirements simultaneously, a series of risk mitigation key enabling technologies can be identified for early resolution. Lower cost subscale or laboratory experimentation to demonstrate proof of principle, critical instrumentation requirements, and design discriminating test plans can be developed based on the physical insight provided by these analyses.

Proof of Concept in Disrupted Tactical Networking

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

because of the risk of detection. In this study , we design projectile-based mesh networking prototypes as one potential type of short-living network...to communicate because of the risk of detection. In this study , we design projectile-based mesh networking prototypes as one potential type of short...reader with a background in systems-theory. This study is designed using systems theory and uses systems theory as a lens through which to observe

A comprehensive risk assessment framework for offsite transportation of inflammable hazardous waste.

PubMed

Das, Arup; Gupta, A K; Mazumder, T N

2012-08-15

A framework for risk assessment due to offsite transportation of hazardous wastes is designed based on the type of event that can be triggered from an accident of a hazardous waste carrier. The objective of this study is to design a framework for computing the risk to population associated with offsite transportation of inflammable and volatile wastes. The framework is based on traditional definition of risk and is designed for conditions where accident databases are not available. The probability based variable in risk assessment framework is substituted by a composite accident index proposed in this study. The framework computes the impacts due to a volatile cloud explosion based on TNO Multi-energy model. The methodology also estimates the vulnerable population in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY) which takes into consideration the demographic profile of the population and the degree of injury on mortality and morbidity sustained. The methodology is illustrated using a case study of a pharmaceutical industry in the Kolkata metropolitan area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional Assessment-Based Interventions for Students with or At-Risk for High-Incidence Disabilities: Field Testing Single-Case Synthesis Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Common, Eric Alan; Lane, Kathleen Lynne; Pustejovsky, James E.; Johnson, Austin H.; Johl, Liane Elizabeth

2017-01-01

This systematic review investigated one systematic approach to designing, implementing, and evaluating functional assessment-based interventions (FABI) for use in supporting school-age students with or at-risk for high-incidence disabilities. We field tested several recently developed methods for single-case design syntheses. First, we appraised…

RISK MANAGEMENT USING PROJECT RECON

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-28

Risk Management Using Project Recon UNCLASSIFIED: Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Bonnie Leece... Project Recon Lead What is Project Recon? • A web-based GOTS tool designed to capture, manage, and link Risks, Issues, and Opportunities in a...centralized database. • Project Recon (formerly Risk Recon) is designed to be used by all Program Management Offices, Integrated Project Teams and any

Reliability Based Design for a Raked Wing Tip of an Airframe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patnaik, Surya N.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Coroneos, Rula M.

2011-01-01

A reliability-based optimization methodology has been developed to design the raked wing tip of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of composite and metallic materials. Design is formulated for an accepted level of risk or reliability. The design variables, weight and the constraints became functions of reliability. Uncertainties in the load, strength and the material properties, as well as the design variables, were modeled as random parameters with specified distributions, like normal, Weibull or Gumbel functions. The objective function and constraint, or a failure mode, became derived functions of the risk-level. Solution to the problem produced the optimum design with weight, variables and constraints as a function of the risk-level. Optimum weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to a 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. Under some assumptions, this design would be quite close to the deterministic optimum solution. The weight increased when reliability exceeded 50 percent, and decreased when the reliability was compromised. A design could be selected depending on the level of risk acceptable to a situation. The optimization process achieved up to a 20-percent reduction in weight over traditional design.

Learning from Failures: Archiving and Designing with Failure and Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanWie, Michael; Bohm, Matt; Barrientos, Francesca; Turner, Irem; Stone, Robert

2005-01-01

Identifying and mitigating risks during conceptual design remains an ongoing challenge. This work presents the results of collaborative efforts between The University of Missouri-Rolla and NASA Ames Research Center to examine how an early stage mission design team at NASA addresses risk, and, how a computational support tool can assist these designers in their tasks. Results of our observations are given in addition to a brief example of our implementation of a repository based computational tool that allows users to browse and search through archived failure and risk data as related to either physical artifacts or functionality.

Design reuse experience of space and hazardous operations robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneil, P. Graham

1994-01-01

A comparison of design drivers for space and hazardous nuclear waste operating robots details similarities and differences in operations, performance and environmental parameters for these critical environments. The similarities are exploited to provide low risk system components based on reuse principles and design knowledge. Risk reduction techniques are used for bridging areas of significant differences. As an example, risk reduction of a new sensor design for nuclear environment operations is employed to provide upgradeable replacement units in a reusable architecture for significantly higher levels of radiation.

A Further Look at the Prediction of Weapons Effectiveness in Suppressive Fire

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-05-01

official Oeciertmirit Of the .,m’y politiOn. unless 11) designated by other authorized documents. . I tiny~ flggq rr- SECURITY CLASSIFICAT ION OF THIS PAGE...presents the results of an investigation originally designed to determine what aspects of the auditory signatures of passing projectiles are perceived as...suppression is based on a future risk, while reactive suppression is based on a current risk. Nay-or 2 0 implies that weapons designers need more

Concepts for risk-based surveillance in the field of veterinary medicine and veterinary public health: Review of current approaches

PubMed Central

Stärk, Katharina DC; Regula, Gertraud; Hernandez, Jorge; Knopf, Lea; Fuchs, Klemens; Morris, Roger S; Davies, Peter

2006-01-01

Background Emerging animal and zoonotic diseases and increasing international trade have resulted in an increased demand for veterinary surveillance systems. However, human and financial resources available to support government veterinary services are becoming more and more limited in many countries world-wide. Intuitively, issues that present higher risks merit higher priority for surveillance resources as investments will yield higher benefit-cost ratios. The rapid rate of acceptance of this core concept of risk-based surveillance has outpaced the development of its theoretical and practical bases. Discussion The principal objectives of risk-based veterinary surveillance are to identify surveillance needs to protect the health of livestock and consumers, to set priorities, and to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. An important goal is to achieve a higher benefit-cost ratio with existing or reduced resources. We propose to define risk-based surveillance systems as those that apply risk assessment methods in different steps of traditional surveillance design for early detection and management of diseases or hazards. In risk-based designs, public health, economic and trade consequences of diseases play an important role in selection of diseases or hazards. Furthermore, certain strata of the population of interest have a higher probability to be sampled for detection of diseases or hazards. Evaluation of risk-based surveillance systems shall prove that the efficacy of risk-based systems is equal or higher than traditional systems; however, the efficiency (benefit-cost ratio) shall be higher in risk-based surveillance systems. Summary Risk-based surveillance considerations are useful to support both strategic and operational decision making. This article highlights applications of risk-based surveillance systems in the veterinary field including food safety. Examples are provided for risk-based hazard selection, risk-based selection of sampling strata as well as sample size calculation based on risk considerations. PMID:16507106

78 FR 65326 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Experimental...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-31

... Directed at Adolescents.'' This study is designed to examine how adolescents interpret DTC advertising... understanding of benefits and risks in DTC ads differ across this part of the lifespan. Design Overview Within... (benefit onset: immediate, delayed) x 2 (risk severity: high, low) factorial design, based on the rationale...

Healthwise South Africa: Cultural Adaptation of a School-Based Risk Prevention Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wegner, L.; Flisher, A. J.; Caldwell, L. L.; Vergnani, T.; Smith, E. A.

2008-01-01

There is a need for effective prevention programmes aimed at reducing risk behaviour among South African adolescents. HealthWise South Africa is a school-based programme designed to reduce sexual and substance use risk behaviour, and promote positive use of leisure time among high-school learners (students). Based on successful programmes in the…

Performance based design of laterally loaded drilled shafts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

Reliability-based design of deep foundations such as drilled shafts has been increasingly important due to the : heightened awareness of the importance of risk management. The load and resistance factor design has been : implemented by FHWA since 200...

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA): Challenges and New Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campola, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) challenges associated with the use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components and emerging technologies are cause for risk acceptance in space flight missions. The RHA flow includes environment definition, hazard evaluation, requirements definition, evaluation of design, and design trades to accommodate the risk a project or program takes. The varied missions profiles and environments don't necessarily benefit from the same risk reduction efforts or cost reduction attempts. The level of effort within the RHA flow can be tailored to minimize risk based on the environment or design criticality.

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

2016-10-20

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

Design of a secure remote management module for a software-operated medical device.

PubMed

Burnik, Urban; Dobravec, Štefan; Meža, Marko

2017-12-09

Software-based medical devices need to be maintained throughout their entire life cycle. The efficiency of after-sales maintenance can be improved by managing medical systems remotely. This paper presents how to design the remote access function extensions in order to prevent risks imposed by uncontrolled remote access. A thorough analysis of standards and legislation requirements regarding safe operation and risk management of medical devices is presented. Based on the formal requirements, a multi-layer machine design solution is proposed that eliminates remote connectivity risks by strict separation of regular device functionalities from remote management service, deploys encrypted communication links and uses digital signatures to prevent mishandling of software images. The proposed system may also be used as an efficient version update of the existing medical device designs.

Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

knowledge-based practices. As a result , most of these programs will carry technology, design, and production risks into subsequent phases of the...acquisition process that could result in cost growth or schedule delays. GAO also assessed the implementation of selected acquisition reforms and found...knowledge-based practices. As a result , most of these programs will carry technology, design, and production risks into subsequent phases of the

The effect of an Internet-based intervention designed to reduce HIV/AIDS sexual risk among Mexican adolescents.

PubMed

Castillo-Arcos, Lubia Del Carmen; Benavides-Torres, Raquel Alicia; López-Rosales, Fuensanta; Onofre-Rodríguez, Dora Julia; Valdez-Montero, Carolina; Maas-Góngora, Lucely

2016-01-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effect of an Internet-based intervention to reduce sexual risk behaviors and increase resilience to sexual risk behaviors among Mexican adolescents, a key HIV/AIDS risk group. The study had a quasi-experimental design with single-stage cluster sampling. Participants ages 14-17 were stratified by gender and randomly assigned to either receive intervention "Connect" (which included face-to-face and Internet-based sessions designed to reduce sexual risk behaviors and increase resilience to sexual risk) or control (a general educational video on reducing health risks). A total of 9 survey instruments were administered online through SurveyMonkey pre- and post-intervention to assess changes in sexual risk and protective factors as well as two outcomes of interest: risky sexual behaviors and resilience. Pearson correlation assessed instrument reliability while multivariable linear regression models assessed two study hypotheses: (1) the effect of the intervention on sexual behavior and resilience is mediated by adolescent age, gender, and sexual experience and (2) risk and protective factors are mediators between the intervention and sexual behavior. The sample was composed of 193 adolescents between 14 and 17 years old (n = 96 in the control group and n = 97 in the experimental group). Survey instruments were reliable. Age was associated with pre-to-post test changes in sexual resilience (β = -6.10, p = .019), which partially mediated the effect of the intervention on sexual resilience (β = 5.70, p = .034). Social support was associated with pre-to-post test changes in risky sexual behavior (β = -0.17, p = .039). Intervention "Connect" was independently associated with improved self-reported resilience to risky sexual behaviors, though not with a reduction in those behaviors in multivariate analyses. This is the first Internet-based intervention designed to reduce HIV/AIDS sexual risk among Mexican adolescents.

Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, J.

2006-12-01

Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its residual lifetime.

A school-based intervention for diabetes risk reduction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We examined the effects of a multicomponent, school-based program, addressing risk factors for diabetes among children whose race, or ethnic group and socioeconomic status placed them at high risk for obesity and type 2 diabetes. Using a cluster design, we randomly assigned 42 schools to either a mu...

Application of discriminant analysis-based model for prediction of risk of low back disorders due to workplace design in industrial jobs.

PubMed

Ganga, G M D; Esposto, K F; Braatz, D

2012-01-01

The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.

Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

PubMed Central

Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-01-01

Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

PubMed

Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-06-01

This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

A scan statistic for identifying optimal risk windows in vaccine safety studies using self-controlled case series design.

PubMed

Xu, Stanley; Hambidge, Simon J; McClure, David L; Daley, Matthew F; Glanz, Jason M

2013-08-30

In the examination of the association between vaccines and rare adverse events after vaccination in postlicensure observational studies, it is challenging to define appropriate risk windows because prelicensure RCTs provide little insight on the timing of specific adverse events. Past vaccine safety studies have often used prespecified risk windows based on prior publications, biological understanding of the vaccine, and expert opinion. Recently, a data-driven approach was developed to identify appropriate risk windows for vaccine safety studies that use the self-controlled case series design. This approach employs both the maximum incidence rate ratio and the linear relation between the estimated incidence rate ratio and the inverse of average person time at risk, given a specified risk window. In this paper, we present a scan statistic that can identify appropriate risk windows in vaccine safety studies using the self-controlled case series design while taking into account the dependence of time intervals within an individual and while adjusting for time-varying covariates such as age and seasonality. This approach uses the maximum likelihood ratio test based on fixed-effects models, which has been used for analyzing data from self-controlled case series design in addition to conditional Poisson models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Chronic Disease Risk Reduction with a Community-Based Lifestyle Change Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merrill, Ray M; Aldana, Steven G; Greenlaw, Roger L; Salberg, Audrey; Englert, Heike

2008-01-01

Objective To assess whether reduced health risks resulting from the Coronary Health Improvement Project (CHIP) persist through 18 months. Methods: The CHIP is a four-week health education course designed to help individuals reduce cardiovascular risk by improving nutrition and physical activity behaviors. Analyses were based on 211 CHIP enrollees,…

Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: balancing methodological rigor and research ethics.

PubMed

Underhill, Kristen

2013-10-01

The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions - such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines - has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of "risk homeostasis," which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: Balancing methodological rigor and research ethics

PubMed Central

Underhill, Kristen

2014-01-01

The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions – such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines – has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of “risk homeostasis,” which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. PMID:23597916

Pattern-Based Design of Insider Threat Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

also applied these models to develop best practices and technical controls for mitigating insider threat. In some cases of in- sider threat...departing insiders might take valuable IP with them. One set of practices and controls designed to reduce the risk of insider IP theft is based on case data...describing this set of practices and controls helps to balance the costs of monitoring employee behavior for suspicious actions against the risk of

Design of a Randomized Controlled Trial of a Web-Based Intervention to Reduce Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Remote Reservation-Dwelling American Indian Adults with Type 2 Diabetes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Jeffrey A.; Chubak, Jessica; O'Connell, Joan; Ramos, Maria C.; Jensen, Julie; Jobe, Jared B.

2012-01-01

We describe a randomized controlled trial, the Lakota Oyate Wicozani Pi Kte (LOWPK) trial, which was designed to determine whether a Web-based diabetes and nutritional intervention can improve risk factors related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) among a group of remote reservation-dwelling adult American Indian men and women with type 2 diabetes…

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motiwala, Samira A.; Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

A Drop-Out Prevention Program for High-Risk Inner-City Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lever, Nancy; Sander, Mark A.; Lombardo, Sylvie; Randall, Camille; Axelrod, Jennifer; Rubenstein, Michelle; Weist, Mark D.

2004-01-01

Inner-city youth are at high risk for dropping out of high school. Within this article, risk factors associated with dropout and strategies for effective prevention and intervention are reviewed. An example of a school-based drop-out prevention program is highlighted. The FUTURES Program is a school-based drop-out prevention program designed to…

Naval Enterprise Engineering: Design, Innovate and Train (NEEDIT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-04

world and we are somewhat able to stand on the shoulders of giants in Naval Engineering and inherit baseline designs that, in most cases, represent a...Set-Based Design) maximizes design flexibility ( Lamb 2003). However, it may add some risk to schedule or require program managers to trust that the...spiral or Set based design. A design philosophy is a weighted list of attributes used in the evaluation of alternatives ( Lamb 2003). Design leadership

Classroom-Based Phonological Sensitivity Intervention (PSI) Using a Narrative Platform: An Experimental Study of First Graders at Risk for a Reading Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ritter, Michaela J.; Saxon, Terrill F.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of classroom-based phonological sensitivity intervention (PSI) using a narrative platform for children in first grade who are at risk for a reading disability. Participants consisted of 59 first graders identified as at risk for later reading impairments. At-risk designation was dictated by…

The HIV Risk Profiles of Latino Sexual Minorities and Transgender Persons Who Use Websites or Apps Designed for Social and Sexual Networking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sun, Christina J.; Reboussin, Beth; Mann, Lilli; Garcia, Manuel; Rhodes, Scott D.

2016-01-01

The use of websites and GPS-based mobile applications ("apps") designed for social and sexual networking has been associated with increased HIV risk; however, little is known about Latino sexual minorities' and transgender persons' use of these websites and apps and the risk profiles of those who use them compared with those who do not.…

Quality risk management in pharmaceutical development.

PubMed

Charoo, Naseem Ahmad; Ali, Areeg Anwer

2013-07-01

The objective of ICH Q8, Q9 and Q10 documents is application of systemic and science based approach to formulation development for building quality into product. There is always some uncertainty in new product development. Good risk management practice is essential for success of new product development in decreasing this uncertainty. In quality by design paradigm, the product performance properties relevant to the patient are predefined in target product profile (TPP). Together with prior knowledge and experience, TPP helps in identification of critical quality attributes (CQA's). Initial risk assessment which identifies risks to these CQA's provides impetus for product development. Product and process are designed to gain knowledge about these risks, devise strategies to eliminate or mitigate these risks and meet objectives set in TPP. By laying more emphasis on high risk events the protection level of patient is increased. The process being scientifically driven improves the transparency and reliability of the manufacturer. The focus on risk to the patient together with flexible development approach saves invaluable resources, increases confidence on quality and reduces compliance risk. The knowledge acquired in analysing risks to CQA's permits construction of meaningful design space. Within the boundaries of the design space, variation in critical material characteristics and process parameters must be managed in order to yield a product having the desired characteristics. Specifications based on product and process understanding are established such that product will meet the specifications if tested. In this way, the product is amenable to real time release, since specifications only confirm quality but they do not serve as a means of effective process control.

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graber, Robert R.

2010-01-01

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Victoria Katherine

In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

The Community-based Participatory Intervention Effect of “HIV-RAAP”

PubMed Central

Yancey, Elleen M.; Mayberry, Robert; Armstrong-Mensah, Elizabeth; Collins, David; Goodin, Lisa; Cureton, Shava; Trammell, Ella H.; Yuan, Keming

2012-01-01

Objectives To design and test HIV-RAAP (HIV/AIDS Risk Reduction Among Heterosexually Active African American Men and Women: A Risk Reduction Prevention Intervention) a coeducational, culture- and gender-sensitive community-based participatory HIV risk reduction intervention. Methods A community-based participatory research process included intervention development and implementation of a 7-session coeducational curriculum conducted over 7 consecutive weeks. Results The results indicated a significant intervention effect on reducing sexual behavior risk (P=0.02), improving HIV risk knowledge (P=0.006), and increasing sexual partner conversations about HIV risk reduction (P= 0.001). Conclusions The HIV-RAAP intervention impacts key domains of heterosexual HIV transmission. PMID:22488405

The community-based participatory intervention effect of "HIV-RAAP".

PubMed

Yancey, Elleen M; Mayberry, Robert; Armstrong-Mensah, Elizabeth; Collins, David; Goodin, Lisa; Cureton, Shava; Trammell, Ella H; Yuan, Keming

2012-07-01

To design and test HIV-RAAP (HIV/AIDS Risk Reduction Among Heterosexually Active African American Men and Women: A Risk Reduction Prevention Intervention) a coeducational, culture- and gender-sensitive community-based participatory HIV risk reduction intervention. A community-based participatory research process included intervention development and implementation of a 7-session coeducational curriculum conducted over 7 consecutive weeks. The results indicated a significant intervention effect on reducing sexual behavior risk (P=0.02), improving HIV risk knowledge (P=0.006), and increasing sexual partner conversations about HIV risk reduction (P= 0.001). The HIV-RAAP intervention impacts key domains of heterosexual HIV transmission.

77 FR 58804 - Testing of Product Samples for Listeria monocytogenes: Changes in Procedures

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-24

... risk-based program designed to detect L. monocytogenes contamination from three types of samples: Food.... An IVT, similar to a RLm, is designed to analyze three types of samples: food-contact surfaces..., Pouillot R, et al. A comparative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in prepackaged versus retail...

The Littoral Combat Ship: Is the US Navy Assuming Too Much Risk?

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-16

whereas the General Dynamics design will focus on an all- aluminum trimaran hull. Additional study of the pros and cons based on these two designs and......also important to understand that not all risk is bad. The SWOT analysis, which looks at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats

Nigerian Library Staff and Their Perceptions of Health Risks Posed by Using Computer-Based Systems in University Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uwaifo, Stephen Osahon

2008-01-01

Purpose: The paper seeks to examine the health risks faced when using computer-based systems by library staff in Nigerian libraries. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses a survey research approach to carry out this investigation. Findings: The investigation reveals that the perceived health risk does not predict perceived ease of use of…

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal; Stutts, Richard; Huang, Zhaofeng

2015-01-01

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Study designs for identification of rare disease variants in complex diseases: the utility of family-based designs.

PubMed

Ionita-Laza, Iuliana; Ottman, Ruth

2011-11-01

The recent progress in sequencing technologies makes possible large-scale medical sequencing efforts to assess the importance of rare variants in complex diseases. The results of such efforts depend heavily on the use of efficient study designs and analytical methods. We introduce here a unified framework for association testing of rare variants in family-based designs or designs based on unselected affected individuals. This framework allows us to quantify the enrichment in rare disease variants in families containing multiple affected individuals and to investigate the optimal design of studies aiming to identify rare disease variants in complex traits. We show that for many complex diseases with small values for the overall sibling recurrence risk ratio, such as Alzheimer's disease and most cancers, sequencing affected individuals with a positive family history of the disease can be extremely advantageous for identifying rare disease variants. In contrast, for complex diseases with large values of the sibling recurrence risk ratio, sequencing unselected affected individuals may be preferable.

An Integrated Web-Based Assessment Tool for Assessing Pesticide Exposure and Risks

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods We have created an integrated web-based tool designed to estimate exposure doses and ecological risks under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Species Act. This involved combining a number of disparat...

An Introduction to Risk with a Focus on Design Diversity in the Stockpile

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noone, Bailey C

2012-08-13

The maintenance and security of nuclear weapons in the stockpile involves decisions based on risk analysis and quantitative measures of risk. Risk is a factor in all decisions, a particularly important factor in decisions of a large scale. One example of high-risk decisions we will discuss is the risk involved in design diversity within the stockpile of nuclear weapons arsenal. Risk is defined as 'possibility of loss or injury' and the 'degree of probability of such loss' (Kaplan and Garrick 12). To introduce the risk involved with maintaining the weapons stockpile we will draw a parallel to the design andmore » maintenance of Southwest Airlines fleet of Boeing 737 planes. The clear benefits for cost savings in maintenance of having a uniform fleet are what historically drove Southwest to have only Boeing 737s in their fleet. Less money and resources are need for maintenance, training, and materials. Naturally, risk accompanies those benefits. A defect in a part of the plane indicates a potential defect in that same part in all the planes of the fleet. As a result, safety, business, and credibility are at risk. How much variety or diversity does the fleet need to mitigate that risk? With that question in mind, a balance is needed to accommodate the different risks and benefits of the situation. In a similar way, risk is analyzed for the design and maintenance of nuclear weapons in the stockpile. In conclusion, risk must be as low as possible when it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk, and to help balance options in stockpile stewardship.« less

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

2018-05-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

Evaluation of Carrying Capacity Land-Based Layout to Mitigate Flood Risk (Case Study in Tempuran Floodplain, Ponorogo Regency) Novia Lusiana1 Bambang Rahadi2 Tunggul Sutanhaji3 1Environmental and Natural Resources Management Graduate Program University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia 23Laboratory of Environment and Natural Resources Engineering, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia Email : novialusiana@rocketmail.com, jbrahadi@ub.ac.id, tunggulsutanhaji@yahoo.com

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusiana, N.

2013-12-01

Abstract Floods haves frequently hit Indonesia and have had greater negative impacts. In Javaboth the area affected by flooding and the amount of damage caused by floods have increased. At least, five factors, affect the flooding in Indonesia, including rainfall, reduced retention capacity of the watershed, erroneous design of river channel development, silting-up of the river, and erroneous regional layout. The level of the disastrous risks can be evaluated based on the extent of the threat and susceptibility of a region. One methode for risk assessment is Geographical Information System (GIS)-based mapping. Objectives of this research are: 1) evaluating current flood risk in susceptible areas, 2) applying supported land-based layout as effort to mitigate floodrisk, and 3) evaluating floodrisk for the period 2031 in the Tempuran floodplain of Ponorogo Regency. Result show that the area categorized as high risk covers 104. 6 ha (1. 2%), moderate risk covers 2512. 9 ha (28. 4%), low risk covers 3140. 8 ha (35. 5%), and the lowest risk covers 3096. 1 (34. 9%). Using Regional Layout Design for the years 2011 - 2031, the high risk area covers 67. 9 ha (0.8%), moderate risk covers 3033 ha (34. 3%), low risk covers 2770. 8 ha (31, 3%), and the lowest risk covers 2982. 6 ha (34%). Based on supported land suitability, the high-risk areais only 2. 9 ha (0.1%), moderate risk covers of 426. 1 ha (4. 8%), low risk covers 4207. 4 ha (47. 5%), and the lowest risk covers 4218 ha (47. 6%). Flood risk can be mitigated by applying supported land-based layout as shown by the reduced high-risk area, and the fact that > 90% of the areas are categorized as low or lowest risk of disaster. Keywords : Carrying Capacity, Land Capacity, Flood Risk

A Web-Based Intervention to Reduce Alcohol-Exposed Pregnancies in the Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenkku, Leigh E.; Mengel, Mark B.; Nicholson, Robert A.; Hile, Matthew G.; Morris, Daniel S.; Salas, Joanne

2011-01-01

Despite warnings that drinking during pregnancy is unsafe, many women are still at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP). This article describes the outcomes of a web-based, self-guided change intervention designed to lower the risk for AEPs in a community. A sample of 458 women, between the ages of 18 and 44 years and at risk for an AEP…

Impact of HealthWise South Africa on Polydrug Use and High-Risk Sexual Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tibbits, Melissa K.; Smith, Edward A.; Caldwell, Linda L.; Flisher, Alan J.

2011-01-01

This study was designed to evaluate the efficacy of the HealthWise South Africa HIV and substance abuse prevention program at impacting adolescents' polydrug use and sexual risk behaviors. HealthWise is a school-based intervention designed to promote social-emotional skills, increase knowledge and refusal skills relevant to substance use and…

The Proof of the Pudding?: A Case Study of an "At-Risk" Design-Based Inquiry Science Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chue, Shien; Lee, Yew-Jin

2013-01-01

When students collaboratively design and build artifacts that require relevant understanding and application of science, many aspects of scientific literacy are developed. Design-based inquiry (DBI) is one such pedagogy that can serve these desired goals of science education well. Focusing on a Projectile Science curriculum previously found to be…

Jamaican Mothers’ Influences of Adolescent Girls’ Sexual Beliefs and Behaviors

PubMed Central

Hutchinson, M. Katherine; Kahwa, Eulalia; Waldron, Norman; Brown, Cerese Hepburn; Hamilton, Pansy I.; Hewitt, Hermi H.; Aiken, Joyette; Cederbaum, Julie; Alter, Emily; Jemmott, Loretta Sweet

2012-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to identify the ways in which urban Jamaican mothers influence their adolescent daughters’ sexual beliefs and behaviors in order to incorporate them into the design of a family-based human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk reduction intervention program. Design Focus groups were conducted with 46 14- to 18-year-old adolescent girls and 30 mothers or female guardians of adolescent girls recruited from community-based organizations in and around Kingston and St. Andrew, Jamaica. Separate focus groups were held with mothers and daughters; each included 6 to 10 participants. Focus group sessions were scripted, led by teams that included trained Jamaican and American facilitators and note-takers, and audio-taped to ensure data accuracy. Data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Findings Four major maternal influences were identified: mother-daughter relationship quality, mother-daughter sexual communication, monitoring or supervision, and maternal sexual role modeling. Mothers’ and daughters’ reports were consistent; both groups identified positive and negative influences within each category. Conclusions Some maternal influences were positive and health promoting; others were negative and promoted unsafe sexual activity and risk for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. These influences were incorporated into the design of a culture-specific family-based HIV risk reduction intervention tailored to the needs of urban Jamaican adolescent girls and their mothers. Clinical Relevance In order to be effective, family-based HIV risk reduction interventions should be theory based and tailored to the target audience. The four maternal influences identified in this formative study were incorporated into the subsequent intervention design. PMID:22339731

A web-based personalized risk communication and decision-making tool for women with dense breasts: Design and methods of a randomized controlled trial within an integrated health care system.

PubMed

Knerr, Sarah; Wernli, Karen J; Leppig, Kathleen; Ehrlich, Kelly; Graham, Amanda L; Farrell, David; Evans, Chalanda; Luta, George; Schwartz, Marc D; O'Neill, Suzanne C

2017-05-01

Mammographic breast density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer after age and family history. Mandatory breast density disclosure policies are increasing nationally without clear guidance on how to communicate density status to women. Coupling density disclosure with personalized risk counseling and decision support through a web-based tool may be an effective way to allow women to make informed, values-consistent risk management decisions without increasing distress. This paper describes the design and methods of Engaged, a prospective, randomized controlled trial examining the effect of online personalized risk counseling and decision support on risk management decisions in women with dense breasts and increased breast cancer risk. The trial is embedded in a large integrated health care system in the Pacific Northwest. A total of 1250 female health plan members aged 40-69 with a recent negative screening mammogram who are at increased risk for interval cancer based on their 5-year breast cancer risk and BI-RADS® breast density will be randomly assigned to access either a personalized web-based counseling and decision support tool or standard educational content. Primary outcomes will be assessed using electronic health record data (i.e., chemoprevention and breast MRI utilization) and telephone surveys (i.e., distress) at baseline, six weeks, and twelve months. Engaged will provide evidence about whether a web-based personalized risk counseling and decision support tool is an effective method for communicating with women about breast density and risk management. An effective intervention could be disseminated with minimal clinical burden to align with density disclosure mandates. Clinical Trials Registration Number:NCT03029286. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Practice-Based Research Network Infrastructure Design for Institutional Review Board Risk Assessment and Generalizability of Clinical Results.

PubMed

Curro, Frederick; Thompson, Van P; Naftolin, Frederick; Grill, Ashley; Vena, Don; Terracio, Louis; Hashimoto, Mariko; Buchholz, Matthew; McKinstry, Andrea; Cannon, Diane; Alfano, Vincent; Gooden, Thalia; Vernillo, Anthony; Czeisler, Elan

2013-01-01

Data from clinical studies generated by Practice Based Research Networks should be generalizable to the profession. For nationally representative data a broad recruitment of practitioners may pose added risks to IRB's. Infrastructure must assure data integrity while minimizing risk to assure that the clinical results are generalizable. The PEARL Network is an interdisciplinary dental/medical PBRN conducting a broad range of clinical studies. The infrastructure is designed to support the principles of Good Clinical Practice (GCP) and create a data audit trail to ensure data integrity for generalizability. As the PBRN concept becomes of greater interest, membership may expand beyond the local community, and the issue of geography versus risk management becomes of concern to the IRB. The PEARL Network describes how it resolves many of the issues related to recruiting on a National basis while maintaining study compliance to ensure patient safety and minimize risk to the IRB.

Effects of a Risk-based Online Mammography Intervention on Accuracy of Perceived Risk and Mammography Intentions

PubMed Central

Seitz, Holli H.; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N.

2016-01-01

Objective This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. Methods 2,918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (< 1.5%; ≥ 1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) × 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Results Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk <1.5%. For women with a risk < 1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. Conclusion A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Practice Implications Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. PMID:27178707

Advanced Technology Spark-Ignition Aircraft Piston Engine Design Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stuckas, K. J.

1980-01-01

The advanced technology, spark ignition, aircraft piston engine design study was conducted to determine the improvements that could be made by taking advantage of technology that could reasonably be expected to be made available for an engine intended for production by January 1, 1990. Two engines were proposed to account for levels of technology considered to be moderate risk and high risk. The moderate risk technology engine is a homogeneous charge engine operating on avgas and offers a 40% improvement in transportation efficiency over present designs. The high risk technology engine, with a stratified charge combustion system using kerosene-based jet fuel, projects a 65% improvement in transportation efficiency. Technology enablement program plans are proposed herein to set a timetable for the successful integration of each item of required advanced technology into the engine design.

Implementation of the NHLBI Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents: Rationale and Study Design for Young Hearts, Strong Starts, a Cluster-Randomized Trial Targeting Body Mass Index, Blood Pressure, and Tobacco

PubMed Central

LaBresh, Kenneth A.; Lazorick, Suzanne; Ariza, Adolfo J.; Furberg, Robert D.; Whetstone, Lauren; Hobbs, Connie; de Jesus, Janet; Bender, Randall H.; Salinas, Ilse G.; Binns, Helen J.

2014-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the underlying atherosclerosis begin in childhood, and their presence and intensity are related to known cardiovascular disease risk factors. Attention to risk factor control in childhood has the potential to reduce subsequent risk of CVD. Objective The Young Hearts Strong Starts Study was designed to test strategies facilitating adoption of the National, Heart, Lung and Blood Institute supported Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents. This study compares guideline-based quality measures for body mass index, blood pressure, and tobacco using two strategies: a multifaceted, practice-directed intervention versus standard dissemination. Study Design Two primary care research networks recruited practices and provided support for the intervention and outcome evaluations. Individual practices were randomly assigned to the intervention or control groups using a cluster randomized design based on network affiliation, number of clinicians per practice, urban versus nonurban location, and practice type. The units of observation are individual children because measure adherence is abstracted from individual patient’s medical records. The units of randomization are physician practices. This results in a multilevel design in which patients are nested within practices. The intervention practices received toolkits and supported guideline implementation including academic detailing, an ongoing e-learning group. This project is aligned with the American Board of Pediatrics Maintenance of Certification requirements including monthly physician self-abstraction, webinars, and other elements of the trial. Significance This trial will provide an opportunity to demonstrate tools and strategies to enhance CV prevention in children by guideline-based interventions. PMID:24295879

Risk-Informed Mean Recurrence Intervals for Updated Wind Maps in ASCE 7-16.

PubMed

McAllister, Therese P; Wang, Naiyu; Ellingwood, Bruce R

2018-05-01

ASCE 7 is moving toward adopting load requirements that are consistent with risk-informed design goals characteristic of performance-based engineering (PBE). ASCE 7-10 provided wind maps that correspond to return periods of 300, 700, and 1,700 years for Risk Categories I, II, and combined III/IV, respectively. The risk targets for Risk Categories III and IV buildings and other structures (designated as essential facilities) are different in PBE. The reliability analyses reported in this paper were conducted using updated wind load data to (1) confirm that the return periods already in ASCE 7-10 were also appropriate for risk-informed PBE, and (2) to determine a new risk-based return period for Risk Category IV. The use of data for wind directionality factor, K d , which has become available from recent wind tunnel tests, revealed that reliabilities associated with wind load combinations for Risk Category II structures are, in fact, consistent with the reliabilities associated with the ASCE 7 gravity load combinations. This paper shows that the new wind maps in ASCE 7-16, which are based on return periods of 300, 700, 1,700, and 3,000 years for Risk Categories I, II, III, and IV, respectively), achieve the reliability targets in Section 1.3.1.3 of ASCE 7-16 for nonhurricane wind loads.

Development and preliminary validation of an index for indicating the risks of the design of working hours to health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Schomann, Carsten; Giebel, Ole; Nachreiner, Friedhelm

2006-01-01

BASS 4, a computer program for the design and evaluation of workings hours, is an example of an ergonomics-based software tool that can be used by safety practitioners at the shop floor with regard to legal, ergonomic, and economic criteria. Based on experiences with this computer program, a less sophisticated Working-Hours-Risk Index for assessing the quality of work schedules (including flexible work hours) to indicate risks to health and wellbeing has been developed to provide a quick and easy applicable tool for legally required risk assessments. The results of a validation study show that this risk index seems to be a promising indicator for predicting risks of health complaints and wellbeing. The purpose of the Risk Index is to simplify the evaluation process at the shop floor and provide some more general information about the quality of a work schedule that can be used for triggering preventive interventions. Such a risk index complies with practitioners' expectations and requests for easy, useful, and valid instruments.

The Promise and Challenge of Mentoring High-Risk Youth: Findings from the National Faith-Based Initiative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bauldry, Shawn; Hartmann, Tracey A.

2004-01-01

This report, the third derived from research out of the National Faith-Based Initiative (NFBI), examines how faith-based organizations designed and implemented mentoring programs for high-risk youth. Focusing on four NFBI sites (in the Bronx and Brooklyn, NY; Baton Rouge, LA; and Philadelphia, PA), the report takes up three key questions: How were…

Aircraft Conceptual Design and Risk Analysis Using Physics-Based Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Erik D.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

2006-01-01

An approach was developed which allows for design studies of commercial aircraft using physics-based noise analysis methods while retaining the ability to perform the rapid trade-off and risk analysis studies needed at the conceptual design stage. A prototype integrated analysis process was created for computing the total aircraft EPNL at the Federal Aviation Regulations Part 36 certification measurement locations using physics-based methods for fan rotor-stator interaction tones and jet mixing noise. The methodology was then used in combination with design of experiments to create response surface equations (RSEs) for the engine and aircraft performance metrics, geometric constraints and take-off and landing noise levels. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis was used to assess the expected variability of the metrics under the influence of uncertainty, and to determine how the variability is affected by the choice of engine cycle. Finally, the RSEs were used to conduct a series of proof-of-concept conceptual-level design studies demonstrating the utility of the approach. The study found that a key advantage to using physics-based analysis during conceptual design lies in the ability to assess the benefits of new technologies as a function of the design to which they are applied. The greatest difficulty in implementing physics-based analysis proved to be the generation of design geometry at a sufficient level of detail for high-fidelity analysis.

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

PubMed

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post licensure surveillance of influenza vaccines in the Vaccine Safety Datalink in the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons.

PubMed

Li, Rongxia; Stewart, Brock; McNeil, Michael M; Duffy, Jonathan; Nelson, Jennifer; Kawai, Alison Tse; Baxter, Roger; Belongia, Edward A; Weintraub, Eric

2016-08-01

The changes in each year in influenza vaccine antigenic components as well as vaccine administration patterns may pose new risks of adverse events following immunization (AEs). To evaluate the safety of influenza vaccines annually administered to people ≥ 6 months, we conducted weekly post licensure surveillance for seven pre-specified adverse events following receipt of influenza vaccines during the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD). We used both a historically-controlled cohort design with the Poisson-based maximized sequential probability ratio test (maxSPRT) and a self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) design with the binomial-based maxSPRT. For each adverse event outcome, we defined the risk interval on the basis of biologic plausibility and prior literature. For the historical cohort design, numbers of expected adverse events were calculated from the prior seven seasons, adjusted for age and site. For the SCRI design, a comparison window was defined either before vaccination or after vaccination, depending on each specific outcome. An elevated risk of febrile seizures 0-1 days following trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3) was identified in children aged 6-23 months during the 2014-2015 season using the SCRI design. We found the relative risk (RR) of febrile seizures following concomitant administration of IIV3 and PCV13 was 5.3 with a 95% CI 1.87-14.75. Without concomitant PCV 13 administration, the estimated risk decreased and was no longer statistically significant (RR: 1.4; CI: 0.54 - 3.61). No increased risks, other than for febrile seizures, were identified in influenza vaccine safety surveillance during 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons in the VSD. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk-Based Object Oriented Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, Linda H.; Stapko, Ruth; Gallo, Albert

2000-01-01

Software testing is a well-defined phase of the software development life cycle. Functional ("black box") testing and structural ("white box") testing are two methods of test case design commonly used by software developers. A lesser known testing method is risk-based testing, which takes into account the probability of failure of a portion of code as determined by its complexity. For object oriented programs, a methodology is proposed for identification of risk-prone classes. Risk-based testing is a highly effective testing technique that can be used to find and fix the most important problems as quickly as possible.

Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: Rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives

PubMed Central

Sparks, Jeffrey A.; Iversen, Maura D.; Kroouze, Rachel Miller; Mahmoud, Taysir G.; Triedman, Nellie A.; Kalia, Sarah S.; Atkinson, Michael L.; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D.; Costenbader, Karen H.; Green, Robert C.; Karlson, Elizabeth W.

2014-01-01

We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention. PMID:25151341

Designing Visual Aids That Promote Risk Literacy: A Systematic Review of Health Research and Evidence-Based Design Heuristics.

PubMed

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

2017-06-01

Background Effective risk communication is essential for informed decision making. Unfortunately, many people struggle to understand typical risk communications because they lack essential decision-making skills. Objective The aim of this study was to review the literature on the effect of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, and to evaluate the benefits of visual aids in risk communication. Method We present a conceptual framework describing the influence of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, followed by a systematic review of the benefits of visual aids in risk communication for people with different levels of numeracy and graph literacy. The systematic review covers scientific research published between January 1995 and April 2016, drawn from the following databases: Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO, ERIC, Medline, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were investigation of the effect of numeracy and/or graph literacy, and investigation of the effect of visual aids or comparison of their effect with that of numerical information. Thirty-six publications met the criteria, providing data on 27,885 diverse participants from 60 countries. Results Transparent visual aids robustly improved risk understanding in diverse individuals by encouraging thorough deliberation, enhancing cognitive self-assessment, and reducing conceptual biases in memory. Improvements in risk understanding consistently produced beneficial changes in attitudes, behavioral intentions, trust, and healthy behaviors. Visual aids were found to be particularly beneficial for vulnerable and less skilled individuals. Conclusion Well-designed visual aids tend to be highly effective tools for improving informed decision making among diverse decision makers. We identify five categories of practical, evidence-based guidelines for heuristic evaluation and design of effective visual aids.

Central Heat and Power Plant Coal Dust and Silica Risk Management, Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-11

the dump truck driver, lowers the telescopic chute into a hole at the top of the ash box on the dump truck and then activates the screw conveyor ...addition to the main ammonia health risk assessment letter and designed to inform EAFB of the status of the pending silica rule, exposure assessment...main ammonia health risk assessment letter, AFRL- SA-WP-CL-2014-0014, and designed to inform EAFB of the status of the pending silica rule, exposure

A Prevention Program for Preschool C.O.A.s: Design and Early Effects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zucker, Robert A.; And Others

This report addresses three levels of questions about the effectiveness of the Michigan State University Multiple Risk Outreach Program (MROP). The MROP was designed to recruit families from this high-risk population and test the implementation of an intervention protocol in a population-based program for 3- to 6-year-olds and their families. This…

Using a Systematic Conceptual Model for a Process Evaluation of a Middle School Obesity Risk-Reduction Nutrition Curriculum Intervention: "Choice, Control & Change"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Heewon; Contento, Isobel R.; Koch, Pamela

2013-01-01

Objective: To use and review a conceptual model of process evaluation and to examine the implementation of a nutrition education curriculum, "Choice, Control & Change", designed to promote dietary and physical activity behaviors that reduce obesity risk. Design: A process evaluation study based on a systematic conceptual model. Setting: Five…

Risk-based process safety assessment and control measures design for offshore process facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir

2002-09-02

Process operation is the most hazardous activity next to the transportation and drilling operation on an offshore oil and gas (OOG) platform. Past experiences of onshore and offshore oil and gas activities have revealed that a small mis-happening in the process operation might escalate to a catastrophe. This is of especial concern in the OOG platform due to the limited space and compact geometry of the process area, less ventilation, and difficult escape routes. On an OOG platform, each extra control measure, which is implemented, not only occupies space on the platform and increases congestion but also adds extra load to the platform. Eventualities in the OOG platform process operation can be avoided through incorporating the appropriate control measures at the early design stage. In this paper, the authors describe a methodology for risk-based process safety decision making for OOG activities. The methodology is applied to various offshore process units, that is, the compressor, separators, flash drum and driers of an OOG platform. Based on the risk potential, appropriate safety measures are designed for each unit. This paper also illustrates that implementation of the designed safety measures reduces the high Fatal accident rate (FAR) values to an acceptable level.

Conceptual design study of Fusion Experimental Reactor (FY86 FER): Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seki, Yasushi; Iida, Hiromasa; Honda, Tsutomu

1987-08-01

This report describes the study on safety for FER (Fusion Experimental Reactor) which has been designed as a next step machine to the JT-60. Though the final purpose of this study is to have an image of design base accident, maximum credible accident and to assess their risk or probability, etc., as FER plant system, the emphasis of this years study is placed on fuel-gas circulation system where the tritium inventory is maximum. The report consists of two chapters. The first chapter summarizes the FER system and describes FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) and related accident progression sequence for FER plant system as a whole. The second chapter of this report is focused on fuel-gas circulation system including purification, isotope separation and storage. Probability of risk is assessed by the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) procedure based on FMEA, ETA and FTA.

The exposure-crossover design is a new method for studying sustained changes in recurrent events.

PubMed

Redelmeier, Donald A

2013-09-01

To introduce a new design that explores how an acute exposure might lead to a sustained change in the risk of a recurrent outcome. The exposure-crossover design uses self-matching to control within-person confounding due to genetics, personality, and all other stable patient characteristics. The design is demonstrated using population-based individual-level health data from Ontario, Canada, for three separate medical conditions (n > 100,000 for each) related to the risk of a motor vehicle crash (total outcomes, >2,000 for each). The exposure-crossover design yields numerical risk estimates during the baseline interval before an intervention, the induction interval immediately ahead of the intervention, and the subsequent interval after the intervention. Accompanying graphs summarize results, provide an intuitive display to readers, and show risk comparisons (absolute and relative). Self-matching increases statistical efficiency, reduces selection bias, and yields quantitative analyses. The design has potential limitations related to confounding, artifacts, pragmatics, survivor bias, statistical models, potential misunderstandings, and serendipity. The exposure-crossover design may help in exploring selected questions in epidemiology science. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Commentary: How can family-based quasi-experimental designs and national registers be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology? A reflection on Obel et al. (2016).

PubMed

Larsson, Henrik

2016-04-01

Standard observational studies have reported a robust correlation between maternal smoking during pregnancy and risk of ADHD in offspring. In the accompanying article, Obel et al. used sibling-comparisons to explore the extent to which unmeasured familial confounding explains this association. This commentary highlights three important implications of the study. At a general level, Obel et al. illustrates how (1) family-based quasi-experimental designs and (2) national registers can be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology. At a more specific level, the study suggests that maternal smoking during pregnancy is probably not a causal risk factor for ADHD. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Capability maturity models for offshore organisational management.

PubMed

Strutt, J E; Sharp, J V; Terry, E; Miles, R

2006-12-01

The goal setting regime imposed by the UK safety regulator has important implications for an organisation's ability to manage health and safety related risks. Existing approaches to safety assurance based on risk analysis and formal safety assessments are increasingly considered unlikely to create the step change improvement in safety to which the offshore industry aspires and alternative approaches are being considered. One approach, which addresses the important issue of organisational behaviour and which can be applied at a very early stage of design, is the capability maturity model (CMM). The paper describes the development of a design safety capability maturity model, outlining the key processes considered necessary to safety achievement, definition of maturity levels and scoring methods. The paper discusses how CMM is related to regulatory mechanisms and risk based decision making together with the potential of CMM to environmental risk management.

Pilot Study of a Computer-Based Parental Questionnaire and Visual Profile of Obesity Risk in Healthy Preschoolers.

PubMed

Davies, Marilyn A; Terhorst, Lauren; Zhang, Peng; Nakonechny, Amanda J; Nowalk, Mary Patricia

2015-01-01

This group field-tested a computer-based, parental questionnaire entitled the Childhood Obesity Risk Questionnaire 2-5 (CORQ 2-5) designed to assess obesity risk in healthy preschoolers. COR 2-5 generates a profile of seven obesity risk factors. Field studies provided good internal reliability data and evidence of discriminant validity for the CORQ 2-5. Pediatric nurse clinicians found the CORQ 2-5 profile to be clinically relevant. The CORQ 2-5 is a promising measure of obesity risk in preschoolers who attend community-based health centers for their wellchild visits and who are not yet obese. CORQ 2-5 is intended to guide provider-parental obesity risk discussions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Fall-Risk Self-Assessment for Community-Dwelling Seniors

PubMed Central

Vivrette, Rebecca L.; Rubenstein, Laurence Z.; Martin, Jennifer L.; Josephson, Karen R.; Kramer, B. Josea

2012-01-01

Objective To determine seniors’ beliefs about falls and design a fall-risk self-assessment and educational materials to promote early identification of evidence-based fall risks and encourage prevention behaviors. Methods Focus groups with community-dwelling seniors, conducted in two phases to identify perceptions about fall risks and risk reduction and to assess face validity of the fall-risk self-assessment and acceptability of educational materials. Results Lay perception of fall risks was in general concordance with evidence-based research. Maintaining independence and positive tone were perceived as key motivators for fall prevention. Seniors intended to use information in the educational tool to stimulate discussions about falls with health care providers. Implications An evidence-based, educational fall-risk self-assessment acceptable to older adults can build on existing lay knowledge about fall risks and perception that falls are a relevant problem and can educate seniors about their specific risks and how to minimize them. PMID:21285473

Privacy and information security risks in a technology platform for home-based chronic disease rehabilitation and education.

PubMed

Henriksen, Eva; Burkow, Tatjana M; Johnsen, Elin; Vognild, Lars K

2013-08-09

Privacy and information security are important for all healthcare services, including home-based services. We have designed and implemented a prototype technology platform for providing home-based healthcare services. It supports a personal electronic health diary and enables secure and reliable communication and interaction with peers and healthcare personnel. The platform runs on a small computer with a dedicated remote control. It is connected to the patient's TV and to a broadband Internet. The platform has been tested with home-based rehabilitation and education programs for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes. As part of our work, a risk assessment of privacy and security aspects has been performed, to reveal actual risks and to ensure adequate information security in this technical platform. Risk assessment was performed in an iterative manner during the development process. Thus, security solutions have been incorporated into the design from an early stage instead of being included as an add-on to a nearly completed system. We have adapted existing risk management methods to our own environment, thus creating our own method. Our method conforms to ISO's standard for information security risk management. A total of approximately 50 threats and possible unwanted incidents were identified and analysed. Among the threats to the four information security aspects: confidentiality, integrity, availability, and quality; confidentiality threats were identified as most serious, with one threat given an unacceptable level of High risk. This is because health-related personal information is regarded as sensitive. Availability threats were analysed as low risk, as the aim of the home programmes is to provide education and rehabilitation services; not for use in acute situations or for continuous health monitoring. Most of the identified threats are applicable for healthcare services intended for patients or citizens in their own homes. Confidentiality risks in home are different from in a more controlled environment such as a hospital; and electronic equipment located in private homes and communicating via Internet, is more exposed to unauthorised access. By implementing the proposed measures, it has been possible to design a home-based service which ensures the necessary level of information security and privacy.

Firefighting to Innovation: Using Human Factors and Ergonomics to Tackle Slip, Trip, and Fall Risks in Hospitals.

PubMed

Hignett, Sue; Wolf, Laurie; Taylor, Ellen; Griffiths, Paula

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to use a theoretical model (bench) for human factors and ergonomics (HFE) and a comparison with occupational slips, trips, and falls (STFs) risk management to discuss patient STF interventions (bedside). Risk factors for patient STFs have been identified and reported since the 1950s and are mostly unchanged in the 2010s. The prevailing clinical view has been that STF events indicate underlying frailty or illness, and so many of the interventions over the past 60 years have focused on assessing and treating physiological factors (dizziness, illness, vision/hearing, medicines) rather than designing interventions to reduce risk factors at the time of the STF. Three case studies are used to discuss how HFE has been, or could be, applied to STF risk management as (a) a design-based (building) approach to embed safety into the built environment, (b) a staff- (and organization-) based approach, and (c) a patient behavior-based approach to explore and understand patient perspectives of STF events. The results from the case studies suggest taking a similar HFE integration approach to other industries, that is, a sustainable design intervention for the person who experiences the STF event-the patient. This paper offers a proactive problem-solving approach to reduce STFs by patients in acute hospitals. Authors of the three case studies use HFE principles (bench/book) to understand the complex systems for facility and equipment design and include the perspective of all stakeholders (bedside). © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Implementation science for ambulatory care safety: a novel method to develop context-sensitive interventions to reduce quality gaps in monitoring high-risk patients.

PubMed

McDonald, Kathryn M; Su, George; Lisker, Sarah; Patterson, Emily S; Sarkar, Urmimala

2017-06-24

Missed evidence-based monitoring in high-risk conditions (e.g., cancer) leads to delayed diagnosis. Current technological solutions fail to close this safety gap. In response, we aim to demonstrate a novel method to identify common vulnerabilities across clinics and generate attributes for context-flexible population-level monitoring solutions for widespread implementation to improve quality. Based on interviews with staff in otolaryngology, pulmonary, urology, breast, and gastroenterology clinics at a large urban publicly funded health system, we applied journey mapping to co-develop a visual representation of how patients are monitored for high-risk conditions. Using a National Academies framework and context-sensitivity theory, we identified common systems vulnerabilities and developed preliminary concepts for improving the robustness for monitoring patients with high-risk conditions ("design seeds" for potential solutions). Finally, we conducted a face validity and prioritization assessment of the design seeds with the original interviewees. We identified five high-risk situations for potentially consequential diagnostic delays arising from suboptimal patient monitoring. All situations related to detection of cancer (head and neck, lung, prostate, breast, and colorectal). With clinic participants we created 5 journey maps, each representing specialty clinic workflow directed at evidence-based monitoring. System vulnerabilities common to the different clinics included challenges with: data systems, communications handoffs, population-level tracking, and patient activities. Clinic staff ranked 13 design seeds (e.g., keep patient list up to date, use triggered notifications) addressing these vulnerabilities. Each design seed has unique evaluation criteria for the usefulness of potential solutions developed from the seed. We identified and ranked 13 design seeds that characterize situations that clinicians described 'wake them up at night', and thus could reduce their anxiety, save time, and improve monitoring of high-risk patients. We anticipate that the design seed approach promotes robust and context-sensitive solutions to safety and quality problems because it provides a human-centered link between the experienced problem and various solutions that can be tested for viability. The study also demonstrates a novel integration of industrial and human factors methods (journey mapping, process tracing and design seeds) linked to implementation theory for use in designing interventions that anticipate and reduce implementation challenges.

Predicting Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with Genetic Risk Models on the Basis of Established Genome-wide Association Markers: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Bao, Wei; Hu, Frank B.; Rong, Shuang; Rong, Ying; Bowers, Katherine; Schisterman, Enrique F.; Liu, Liegang; Zhang, Cuilin

2013-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of genetic risk models based on risk loci identified and/or confirmed in genome-wide association studies for type 2 diabetes mellitus. A systematic literature search was conducted in the PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE databases through April 13, 2012, and published data relevant to the prediction of type 2 diabetes based on genome-wide association marker–based risk models (GRMs) were included. Of the 1,234 potentially relevant articles, 21 articles representing 23 studies were eligible for inclusion. The median area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) among eligible studies was 0.60 (range, 0.55–0.68), which did not differ appreciably by study design, sample size, participants’ race/ethnicity, or the number of genetic markers included in the GRMs. In addition, the AUCs for type 2 diabetes did not improve appreciably with the addition of genetic markers into conventional risk factor–based models (median AUC, 0.79 (range, 0.63–0.91) vs. median AUC, 0.78 (range, 0.63–0.90), respectively). A limited number of included studies used reclassification measures and yielded inconsistent results. In conclusion, GRMs showed a low predictive performance for risk of type 2 diabetes, irrespective of study design, participants’ race/ethnicity, and the number of genetic markers included. Moreover, the addition of genome-wide association markers into conventional risk models produced little improvement in predictive performance. PMID:24008910

Travel abroad increases sexual health risk-taking among Swedish youth: a population-based study using a case-crossover strategy

PubMed Central

Sundbeck, Mats; Agardh, Anette; Östergren, Per-Olof

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: The fact that youth take sexual risks when they are abroad have been shown in previous studies. However, it is not known if they increased their sexual risk-taking when travelling abroad, compared to the stay in their homeland. Objective: To assess whether Swedish youth increased their individual sexual risk behaviour, defined as having a casual sex partner, when travelling abroad and to examine possible factors that may be associated with increased risk-taking abroad. Design: In 2013, a population-based sample of 2189 Swedes, 18-29 years, was assessed by a questionnaire (45% response rate). Sexuality, duration of travel, parents’ country of origin, mental health, heavy episodic drinking (HED), use of illicit drugs, and socio-demographic background were assessed. Increased risk of casual sex in relation to time spent abroad vs. time spent in Sweden was analysed by a variant of case-crossover design. Factors that could be associated with increased risk of casual sex in Sweden and abroad, separately, were analysed by logistic regression. PMID:28598729

Web-Based versus High-Fidelity Simulation Training for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists in the Management of High Risk/Low Occurrence Anesthesia Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kimemia, Judy

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this project was to compare web-based to high-fidelity simulation training in the management of high risk/low occurrence anesthesia related events, to enhance knowledge acquisition for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs). This project was designed to answer the question: Is web-based training as effective as…

CubeSat mission design software tool for risk estimating relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamble, Katharine Brumbaugh; Lightsey, E. Glenn

2014-09-01

In an effort to make the CubeSat risk estimation and management process more scientific, a software tool has been created that enables mission designers to estimate mission risks. CubeSat mission designers are able to input mission characteristics, such as form factor, mass, development cycle, and launch information, in order to determine the mission risk root causes which historically present the highest risk for their mission. Historical data was collected from the CubeSat community and analyzed to provide a statistical background to characterize these Risk Estimating Relationships (RERs). This paper develops and validates the mathematical model based on the same cost estimating relationship methodology used by the Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model (USCM) and the Small Satellite Cost Model (SSCM). The RER development uses general error regression models to determine the best fit relationship between root cause consequence and likelihood values and the input factors of interest. These root causes are combined into seven overall CubeSat mission risks which are then graphed on the industry-standard 5×5 Likelihood-Consequence (L-C) chart to help mission designers quickly identify areas of concern within their mission. This paper is the first to document not only the creation of a historical database of CubeSat mission risks, but, more importantly, the scientific representation of Risk Estimating Relationships.

Media processors using a new microsystem architecture designed for the Internet era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyland, David C.

1999-12-01

The demands of digital image processing, communications and multimedia applications are growing more rapidly than traditional design methods can fulfill them. Previously, only custom hardware designs could provide the performance required to meet the demands of these applications. However, hardware design has reached a crisis point. Hardware design can no longer deliver a product with the required performance and cost in a reasonable time for a reasonable risk. Software based designs running on conventional processors can deliver working designs in a reasonable time and with low risk but cannot meet the performance requirements. What is needed is a media processing approach that combines very high performance, a simple programming model, complete programmability, short time to market and scalability. The Universal Micro System (UMS) is a solution to these problems. The UMS is a completely programmable (including I/O) system on a chip that combines hardware performance with the fast time to market, low cost and low risk of software designs.

A Knowledge-Base for a Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System.

PubMed

Vinarti, Retno; Hederman, Lucy

2018-01-01

We present a knowledge-base to represent collated infectious disease risk (IDR) knowledge. The knowledge is about personal and contextual risk of contracting an infectious disease obtained from declarative sources (e.g. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases). Automated prediction requires encoding this knowledge in a form that can produce risk probabilities (e.g. Bayesian Network - BN). The knowledge-base presented in this paper feeds an algorithm that can auto-generate the BN. The knowledge from 234 infectious diseases was compiled. From this compilation, we designed an ontology and five rule types for modelling IDR knowledge in general. The evaluation aims to assess whether the knowledge-base structure, and its application to three disease-country contexts, meets the needs of personalized IDR prediction system. From the evaluation results, the knowledge-base conforms to the system's purpose: personalization of infectious disease risk.

Keeping Kids Safe from a Design Perspective: Ethical and Legal Guidelines for Designing a Video-Based App for Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zydney, Janet Mannheimer; Hooper, Simon

2015-01-01

Educators can use video to gain invaluable information about their students. A concern is that collecting videos online can create an increased security risk for children. The purpose of this article is to provide ethical and legal guidelines for designing video-based apps for mobile devices and the web. By reviewing the literature, law, and code…

Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives.

PubMed

Sparks, Jeffrey A; Iversen, Maura D; Miller Kroouze, Rachel; Mahmoud, Taysir G; Triedman, Nellie A; Kalia, Sarah S; Atkinson, Michael L; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D; Costenbader, Karen H; Green, Robert C; Karlson, Elizabeth W

2014-09-01

We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics, and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and the execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The comparison of various approach to evaluation erosion risks and design control erosion measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapicka, Jiri

2015-04-01

In the present is in the Czech Republic one methodology how to compute and compare erosion risks. This methodology contain also method to design erosion control measures. The base of this methodology is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and their result long-term average annual rate of erosion (G). This methodology is used for landscape planners. Data and statistics from database of erosion events in the Czech Republic shows that many troubles and damages are from local episodes of erosion events. An extent of these events and theirs impact are conditional to local precipitation events, current plant phase and soil conditions. These erosion events can do troubles and damages on agriculture land, municipally property and hydro components and even in a location is from point of view long-term average annual rate of erosion in good conditions. Other way how to compute and compare erosion risks is episodes approach. In this paper is presented the compare of various approach to compute erosion risks. The comparison was computed to locality from database of erosion events on agricultural land in the Czech Republic where have been records two erosion events. The study area is a simple agriculture land without any barriers that can have high influence to water flow and soil sediment transport. The computation of erosion risks (for all methodology) was based on laboratory analysis of soil samples which was sampled on study area. Results of the methodology USLE, MUSLE and results from mathematical model Erosion 3D have been compared. Variances of the results in space distribution of the places with highest soil erosion where compared and discussed. Other part presents variances of design control erosion measures where their design was done on based different methodology. The results shows variance of computed erosion risks which was done by different methodology. These variances can start discussion about different approach how compute and evaluate erosion risks in areas with different importance.

Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

2003-01-01

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

LOD BIM Element specification for Railway Turnout Systems Risk Mitigation using the Information Delivery Manual

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigante-Barrera, Ángel; Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; Ruikar, Darshan

2017-10-01

Railway turnouts are complex systems designed using complex geometries and grades which makes them difficult to be managed in terms of risk prevention. This feature poses a substantial peril to rail users as it is considered a cause of derailment. In addition, derailment deals to financial losses due to operational downtimes and monetary compensations in case of death or injure. These are fundamental drivers to consider mitigating risks arising from poor risk management during design. Prevention through design (PtD) is a process that introduces tacit knowledge from industry professionals during the design process. There is evidence that Building Information Modelling (BIM) can help to mitigate risk since the inception of the project. BIM is considered an Information System (IS) were tacit knowledge can be stored and retrieved from a digital database making easy to take promptly decisions as information is ready to be analysed. BIM at the model element level entails working with 3D elements and embedded data, therefore adding a layer of complexity to the management of information along the different stages of the project and across different disciplines. In order to overcome this problem, the industry has created a framework for model progression specification named Level of Development (LOD). The paper presents an IDM based framework for design risk mitigation through code validation using the LOD. This effort resulted on risk datasets which describe graphically and non-graphically a rail turnout as the model progresses. Thus, permitting its inclusion within risk information systems. The assignment of an LOD construct to a set of data, requires specialised management and process related expertise. Furthermore, the selection of a set of LOD constructs requires a purpose based analysis. Therefore, a framework for LOD constructs implementation within the IDM for code checking is required for the industry to progress in this particular field.

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location-Specific Premiums in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Ermolieva, T; Filatova, T; Ermoliev, Y; Obersteiner, M; de Bruijn, K M; Jeuken, A

2017-01-01

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well-designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood-loss-sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile-related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Comprehensive risk analysis for structure type selection.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

Optimization of bridge selection and design traditionally has been sought in terms of the finished structure. This study presents a : more comprehensive risk-based analysis that includes user costs and accidents during the construction phase. Costs f...

The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

PubMed

Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

2017-02-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using base rates and correlational data to supplement clinical risk assessments.

PubMed

Davis, Jaya; Sorensen, Jon R

2013-01-01

The current study is a partial replication of previous studies designed to estimate the level of risk posed by capital murder defendants. The study draws on data describing the behavior of nearly 2,000 incarcerated capital murderers to forecast violence propensity among defendants sentenced to life imprisonment. Logistic regression is used to model various violence outcomes, relying on the following predictors: age, educational attainment, prior imprisonment, and gang affiliation. This exercise is designed to illustrate how actuarial data may be used to anchor individualized clinical assessments of risk in capital murder trials.

The importance of operations, risk, and cost assessment to space transfer systems design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ball, J. M.; Komerska, R. J.; Rowell, L. F.

1992-01-01

This paper examines several methodologies which contribute to comprehensive subsystem cost estimation. The example of a space-based lunar space transfer vehicle (STV) design is used to illustrate how including both primary and secondary factors into cost affects the decision of whether to use aerobraking or propulsion for earth orbit capture upon lunar return. The expected dominant cost factor in this decision is earth-to-orbit launch cost driven by STV mass. However, to quantify other significant cost factors, this cost comparison included a risk analysis to identify development and testing costs, a Taguchi design of experiments to determine a minimum mass aerobrake design, and a detailed operations analysis. As a result, the predicted cost advantage of aerobraking, while still positive, was subsequently reduced by about 30 percent compared to the simpler mass-based cost estimates.

[Application of risk-based approach for determination of critical factors in technology transfer of production of medicinal products].

PubMed

Beregovykh, V V; Spitskiy, O R

2014-01-01

Risk-based approach is used for examination of impact of different factors on quality of medicinal products in technology transfer. A general diagram is offered for risk analysis execution in technology transfer from pharmaceutical development to production. When transferring technology to full- scale commercial production it is necessary to investigate and simulate production process application beforehand in new real conditions. The manufacturing process is the core factorfor risk analysis having the most impact on quality attributes of a medicinal product. Further importantfactors are linked to materials and products to be handled and manufacturing environmental conditions such as premises, equipment and personnel. Usage of risk-based approach in designing of multipurpose production facility of medicinal products is shown where quantitative risk analysis tool RAMM (Risk Analysis and Mitigation Matrix) was applied.

Evaluation of a Web-Based Malaria Risk Reduction Game for Study Abroad Students

PubMed Central

Hartjes, Laurie B.; Baumann, Linda C.

2012-01-01

Objective Compare feedback strategies in three versions of an educational game. Participants Study abroad students (N = 482) participated by playing the game and completing pre-game/post-game surveys January-March 2010. Methods This study employed an experimental design. Primary outcome measures were knowledge gain, player-satisfaction, and risk perception. Results One-third had previously traveled to a malaria-risk region and two-thirds planned to do so. Baseline malaria knowledge was low. Post-game knowledge and risk perception were significantly higher than pre-game, irrespective of past travel status. The group that automatically received explanatory feedback following game decisions scored higher for mean knowledge gain, without differences in player-satisfaction. Conclusions The challenges of designing a feedback strategy to support Web-based learning make these results highly relevant to health educators developing interactive multimedia interventions. The increasing number of students traveling to higher-risk destinations demands attention. Both malaria-naive and malaria-experienced students would benefit from this approach to travel health education. PMID:22686363

Assessment of ecotoxicological risks related to depositing dredged materials from canals in northern France on soil.

PubMed

Perrodin, Yves; Babut, Marc; Bedell, Jean-Philippe; Bray, Marc; Clement, Bernard; Delolme, Cécile; Devaux, Alain; Durrieu, Claude; Garric, Jeanne; Montuelle, Bernard

2006-08-01

The implementation of an ecological risk assessment framework is presented for dredged material deposits on soil close to a canal and groundwater, and tested with sediment samples from canals in northern France. This framework includes two steps: a simplified risk assessment based on contaminant concentrations and a detailed risk assessment based on toxicity bioassays and column leaching tests. The tested framework includes three related assumptions: (a) effects on plants (Lolium perenne L.), (b) effects on aquatic organisms (Escherichia coli, Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, Ceriodaphnia dubia, and Xenopus laevis) and (c) effects on groundwater contamination. Several exposure conditions were tested using standardised bioassays. According to the specific dredged material tested, the three assumptions were more or less discriminatory, soil and groundwater pollution being the most sensitive. Several aspects of the assessment procedure must now be improved, in particular assessment endpoint design for risks to ecosystems (e.g., integration of pollutant bioaccumulation), bioassay protocols and column leaching test design.

Evaluation of a Web-based malaria risk reduction game for study abroad students.

PubMed

Hartjes, Laurie B; Baumann, Linda C

2012-01-01

Compare feedback strategies in 3 versions of an educational game. Study abroad students (N = 482) participated by playing the game and completing pregame/postgame surveys January-March 2010. This study employed an experimental design. Primary outcome measures were knowledge gain, player satisfaction, and risk perception. One-third had previously traveled to a malaria-risk region, and two thirds planned to do so. Baseline malaria knowledge was low. Postgame knowledge and risk perception were significantly higher than pregame, irrespective of past travel status. The group that automatically received explanatory feedback following game decisions scored higher for mean knowledge gain, without differences in player satisfaction. The challenges of designing a feedback strategy to support Web-based learning make these results highly relevant to health educators developing interactive multimedia interventions. The increasing number of students traveling to higher-risk destinations demands attention. Both malaria-naive and malaria-experienced students would benefit from this approach to travel health education.

Antipsychotic drugs and risk of type 2 diabetes: an evidence-based approach.

PubMed

Bellantuono, Cesario; Tentoni, Luigi; Donda, Pietro

2004-12-01

To review studies conducted to evaluate the risk of type 2 diabetes in patients treated with different antipsychotic drugs (AP). a MEDLINE search (January 1985-February 2003) was conducted to establish the potential relationship between the exposure to AP (conventional and second generation) and the development of type 2 diabetes. Studies were classified according to their experimental design as prospective and retrospective (incidence and prevalence based). Twenty-one studies were selected: nine prospective and eleven retrospective. Patients with schizophrenia treated with different AP have an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared with the general population. The data so far available, however, do not establish whether the increasing risk of developing diabetes is a function of the schizophrenia itself or is induced by the antipsychotic treatment. A number of methodological flaws in the study design and data collection do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the risk between patients treated with conventional drugs versus those treated with new ones. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Functional Behavioral Assessment-Based Interventions for Students with or at Risk for Emotional and/or Behavioral Disorders in School: A Hierarchical Linear Modeling Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gage, Nicholas A.; Lewis, Timothy J.; Stichter, Janine P.

2012-01-01

Of the myriad practices currently utilized for students with disabilities, particularly students with or at risk for emotional and/or behavioral disorder (EBD), functional behavior assessment (FBA) is a practice with an emerging solid research base. However, the FBA research base relies on single-subject design (SSD) and synthesis has relied on…

The Cardiovascular Intervention Improvement Telemedicine Study (CITIES): Rationale for a Tailored Behavioral and Educational Pharmacist-Administered Intervention for Achieving Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction

PubMed Central

Zullig, Leah L.; Melnyk, S. Dee; Stechuchak, Karen M.; McCant, Felicia; Danus, Susanne; Oddone, Eugene; Bastian, Lori; Olsen, Maren; Edelman, David; Rakley, Susan; Morey, Miriam

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes are significant, but often preventable, contributors to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Medication and behavioral nonadherence are significant barriers to successful hypertension, hyperlidemia, and diabetes management. Our objective was to describe the theoretical framework underlying a tailored behavioral and educational pharmacist-administered intervention for achieving CVD risk reduction. Materials and Methods: Adults with poorly controlled hypertension and/or hyperlipidemia were enrolled from three outpatient primary care clinics associated with the Durham Veterans Affairs Medical Center (Durham, NC). Participants were randomly assigned to receive a pharmacist-administered, tailored, 1-year telephone-based intervention or usual care. The goal of the study was to reduce the risk for CVD through a theory-driven intervention to increase medication adherence and improve health behaviors. Results: Enrollment began in November 2011 and is ongoing. The target sample size is 500 patients. Conclusions: The Cardiovascular Intervention Improvement Telemedicine Study (CITIES) intervention has been designed with a strong theoretical underpinning. The theoretical foundation and intervention are designed to encourage patients with multiple comorbidities and poorly controlled CVD risk factors to engage in home-based monitoring and tailored telephone-based interventions. Evidence suggests that clinical pharmacist-administered telephone-based interventions may be efficiently integrated into primary care for patients with poorly controlled CVD risk factors. PMID:24303930

Promoting Community-Based Services: Implications for Program Design, Implementation, and Public Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powers, Michael D.

1986-01-01

Program design, implementation, and public policy issues are discussed for five urban community-based programs for the developmentally disabled: (1) direct services in intermediate care facilities; (2) a High Risk Infant project; (3) group home consultative services; (4) training for support services to adoptive families; (5) a national…

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA): Challenges and New Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campola, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components and emerging technologies often require space flight missions to accept elevated risk. The Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) flow includes environment definition, hazard evaluation, requirements definition, evaluation of design, and design trades to accommodate and mitigate the risk a project or program takes. Depending on the mission profile and environment, different missions may not necessarily benefit from the same risk reduction efforts or cost reduction attempts. While this poses challenges for the radiation engineer, it also presents opportunities to tailor the RHA flow to minimize risk based on the environment or design criticality while remaining within budget. This presentation will focus on an approach to RHA amidst the present challenges, using the same RHA flow as in the past, with examples from recent radiation test results. The current challenges and the types of risk will be identified. How these risks drive requirements development and realization will be explained with examples of device results and data for single event effects (SEE) and in one case total ionizing dose (TID).

A new Web-based medical tool for assessment and prevention of comprehensive cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Franchi, Daniele; Cini, Davide; Iervasi, Giorgio

2011-01-01

Background: Multifactor cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death; besides well-known cardiovascular risk factors, several emerging factors such as mental stress, diet type, and physical inactivity, have been associated to cardiovascular disease. To date, preventive strategies are based on the concept of absolute risk calculated by different algorithms and scoring systems. However, in general practice the patient’s data collection represents a critical issue. Design: A new multipurpose computer-based program has been developed in order to:1) easily calculate and compare the absolute cardiovascular risk by the Framingham, Procam, and Progetto Cuore algorithms; 2) to design a web-based computerized tool for prospective collection of structured data; 3) to support the doctor in the decision-making process for patients at risk according to recent international guidelines. Methods: During a medical consultation the doctor utilizes a common computer connected by Internet to a medical server where all the patient’s data and software reside. The program evaluates absolute and relative cardiovascular risk factors, personalized patient’s goals, and multiparametric trends, monitors critical parameter values, and generates an automated medical report. Results: In a pilot study on 294 patients (47% males; mean age 60 ± 12 years [±SD]) the global time to collect data at first consultation was 13 ± 11 minutes which declined to 8 ± 7 minutes at the subsequent consultation. In 48.2% of cases the program revealed 2 or more primary risk factor parameters outside guideline indications and gave specific clinical suggestions to return altered parameters to target values. Conclusion: The web-based system proposed here may represent a feasible and flexible tool for clinical management of patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and for epidemiological research. PMID:21445280

Making the Case for a Model-Based Definition of Engineering Materials (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-12

MBE relies on digi- tal representations, or a model-based definition (MBD), to define a product throughout design , manufacturing and sus- tainment...discovery through development, scale-up, product design and qualification, manufacture and sustainment have changed little over the past decades. This...testing data provided a certifiable material definition, so as to minimize risk and simplify procurement of materials during the design , manufacture , and

The design of a purpose-built exergame for fall prediction and prevention for older people.

PubMed

Marston, Hannah R; Woodbury, Ashley; Gschwind, Yves J; Kroll, Michael; Fink, Denis; Eichberg, Sabine; Kreiner, Karl; Ejupi, Andreas; Annegarn, Janneke; de Rosario, Helios; Wienholtz, Arno; Wieching, Rainer; Delbaere, Kim

2015-01-01

Falls in older people represent a major age-related health challenge facing our society. Novel methods for delivery of falls prevention programs are required to increase effectiveness and adherence to these programs while containing costs. The primary aim of the Information and Communications Technology-based System to Predict and Prevent Falls (iStoppFalls) project was to develop innovative home-based technologies for continuous monitoring and exercise-based prevention of falls in community-dwelling older people. The aim of this paper is to describe the components of the iStoppFalls system. The system comprised of 1) a TV, 2) a PC, 3) the Microsoft Kinect, 4) a wearable sensor and 5) an assessment and training software as the main components. The iStoppFalls system implements existing technologies to deliver a tailored home-based exercise and education program aimed at reducing fall risk in older people. A risk assessment tool was designed to identify fall risk factors. The content and progression rules of the iStoppFalls exergames were developed from evidence-based fall prevention interventions targeting muscle strength and balance in older people. The iStoppFalls fall prevention program, used in conjunction with the multifactorial fall risk assessment tool, aims to provide a comprehensive and individualised, yet novel fall risk assessment and prevention program that is feasible for widespread use to prevent falls and fall-related injuries. This work provides a new approach to engage older people in home-based exercise programs to complement or provide a potentially motivational alternative to traditional exercise to reduce the risk of falling.

Relationship among Food-Safety Knowledge, Beliefs, and Risk-Reduction Behavior in University Students in Japan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Takeda, Sayaka; Akamatsu, Rie; Horiguchi, Itsuko; Marui, Eiji

2011-01-01

Objective: To identify whether university students who have both food-safety knowledge and beliefs perform risk-reduction behaviors. Design: Cross-sectional research using a questionnaire that included food-safety knowledge, perceptions, risk-reduction behavior, stages for the selection of safer food based on the Transtheoretical Model, and…

Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Julie Gilbertson-Day

2010-01-01

This report was designed to meet three broad goals: (1) evaluate wildfire hazard on Federal lands; (2) develop information useful in prioritizing where fuels treatments and mitigation measures might be proposed to address significant fire hazard and risk; and (3) develop risk-based performance measures to document the effectiveness of fire management programs. The...

The Integrated Medical Model - A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles G.; Saile, Lynn; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

2010-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight.

Helping At-Risk Youth: Lessons from Community-Based Initiatives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morley, Elaine; Rossman, Shelli B.

This report is designed to assist communities engaged in or contemplating initiatives focused on at-risk youth. Much of the information comes from evaluations of the Communities in Schools, SafeFeatures, and Children at Risk initiatives. Brief descriptions of experiences or practices of the community programs are used to illustrate points made or…

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Rossi, M.; Riccio, G.; Romero, E.; Francisco, D.

2016-01-01

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast accuracy. For this reason, it is necessary to clearly regulate the method of risk adjustment in the integrated care contract. The series of three articles on contract design has shown that coordination and motivation problems in designing healthcare contracts cannot be solved at no-costs. Moreover, it became clear, that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic and that contracts do always include certain uncertainties. These are based on the risk of random, and no contracting party can control these risks completely. It is also not possible to fully integrate these risks in the contract or to eliminate these risks by the parties.

Community-based participatory research to design a faith-enhanced diabetes prevention program: The Better Me Within randomized trial.

PubMed

Kitzman, Heather; Dodgen, Leilani; Mamun, Abdullah; Slater, J Lee; King, George; Slater, Donna; King, Alene; Mandapati, Surendra; DeHaven, Mark

2017-11-01

Reducing obesity positively impacts diabetes and cardiovascular risk; however, evidence-based lifestyle programs, such as the diabetes prevention program (DPP), show reduced effectiveness in African American (AA) women. In addition to an attenuated response to lifestyle programs, AA women also demonstrate high rates of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. To address these disparities, enhancements to evidence-based lifestyle programs for AA women need to be developed and evaluated with culturally relevant and rigorous study designs. This study describes a community-based participatory research (CBPR) approach to design a novel faith-enhancement to the DPP for AA women. A long-standing CBPR partnership designed the faith-enhancement from focus group data (N=64 AA adults) integrating five components: a brief pastor led sermon, memory verse, in class or take-home faith activity, promises to remember, and scripture and prayer integrated into participant curriculum and facilitator materials. The faith components were specifically linked to weekly DPP learning objectives to strategically emphasize behavioral skills with religious principles. Using a CBPR approach, the Better Me Within trial was able to enroll 12 churches, screen 333 AA women, and randomize 221 (M age =48.8±11.2; M BMI =36.7±8.4; 52% technical or high school) after collection of objective eligibility measures. A prospective, randomized, nested by church, design will be used to evaluate the faith-enhanced DPP as compared to a standard DPP on weight, diabetes and cardiovascular risk, over a 16-week intervention and 10-month follow up. This study will provide essential data to guide enhancements to evidence-based lifestyle programs for AA women who are at high risk for chronic disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P.; Morgan, M.G.

Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs aboutmore » the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.« less

School- And Home-Based Drug Prevention: Environmental, Parent, and Child Risk Reduction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hahn, Ellen J.; Hall, Lynne A.; Rayens, Mary Kay; Myers, April V.; Bonnel, Galadriel

2007-01-01

The study purpose was to test the effect of a school- and home-based alcohol, tobacco, and other drug (ATOD) prevention program on reducing environmental, parent, and child risk factors for ATOD use. The design was a three-group pretest-posttest with interviews at baseline and 1 and 6 months post-intervention. The sample was 126 parents and their…

Measuring Implementation of Evidence-Based Programs Targeting Young Children at Risk for Emotional/Behavioral Disorders: Conceptual Issues and Recommendations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutherland, Kevin S.; McLeod, Bryce D.; Conroy, Maureen A.; Cox, Julia R.

2013-01-01

Young children with and at risk for emotional/behavioral disorders (EBD) present challenges for early childhood teachers. Evidence-based programs designed to address these young children's behavior problems exist, but there are a number of barriers to implementing these programs in early childhood settings. Advancing the science of treatment…

An Innovative Multiphased Strategy to Recruit Underserved Adults into a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Diabetes Risk Reduction Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santoyo-Olsson, Jasmine; Cabrera, Julissa; Freyre, Rachel; Grossman, Melanie; Alvarez, Natalie; Mathur, Deepika; Guerrero, Maria; Delgadillo, Adriana T.; Kanaya, Alka M.; Stewart, Anita L.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To conduct and evaluate a two-phased community-based approach to recruit lower socioeconomic status, minority, or Spanish-speaking adults at risk of developing diabetes to a randomized trial of a lifestyle intervention program delivered by a public health department. Design: Within geographic areas comprising our target population, 4…

Why Parents Matter!: The Conceptual Basis for a Community-Based HIV Prevention Program for the Parents of African American Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dittus, Patricia; Miller, Kim S.; Kotchick, Beth A.; Forehand, Rex

2004-01-01

The Parents Matter! Program (PMP) is a community-based family intervention designed to promote positive parenting and effective parent-child communication about sexuality and sexual risk reduction. Its ultimate goal is to reduce sexual risk behavior among adolescents. PMP offers parents instruction and guidance in general parenting skills related…

Risk management for food and beverage industry using Australia/New Zealand 4360 Standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristina, S.; Wijaya, B. M.

2017-12-01

This research aims to identifying, measuring and establishing risk in food and beverage industry. The risk management is implemented by referring to Australia/New Zealand 4360 Standard which has four phases such as problem formulation, risk analysis, risk characterization, and risk management. The implementation of risk management is done by case study at Back Alley Café. Based on the risk identification result, there are 59 risks were found in Back Alley Café. The risk identification is conducted based on observation and interview with the café manager who understand the condition of Back Alley Café properly. Based on the assessment of impact and probability, the risk mapping produced four risks at extreme level, 16 risks at high level, 24 risks at medium level, and 18 risks at low level. The strategy was designed as the risk mitigation after the risk mapping for the extreme and high level. The strategy which is given as the prevention or treatment of risk in Back Alley Café is divided into three. There are reducing the risk, sharing the risk and accepting the risk. The strategy is then implemented for each relevant activities.

Virtually optimized insoles for offloading the diabetic foot: A randomized crossover study.

PubMed

Telfer, S; Woodburn, J; Collier, A; Cavanagh, P R

2017-07-26

Integration of objective biomechanical measures of foot function into the design process for insoles has been shown to provide enhanced plantar tissue protection for individuals at-risk of plantar ulceration. The use of virtual simulations utilizing numerical modeling techniques offers a potential approach to further optimize these devices. In a patient population at-risk of foot ulceration, we aimed to compare the pressure offloading performance of insoles that were optimized via numerical simulation techniques against shape-based devices. Twenty participants with diabetes and at-risk feet were enrolled in this study. Three pairs of personalized insoles: one based on shape data and subsequently manufactured via direct milling; and two were based on a design derived from shape, pressure, and ultrasound data which underwent a finite element analysis-based virtual optimization procedure. For the latter set of insole designs, one pair was manufactured via direct milling, and a second pair was manufactured through 3D printing. The offloading performance of the insoles was analyzed for forefoot regions identified as having elevated plantar pressures. In 88% of the regions of interest, the use of virtually optimized insoles resulted in lower peak plantar pressures compared to the shape-based devices. Overall, the virtually optimized insoles significantly reduced peak pressures by a mean of 41.3kPa (p<0.001, 95% CI [31.1, 51.5]) for milled and 40.5kPa (p<0.001, 95% CI [26.4, 54.5]) for printed devices compared to shape-based insoles. The integration of virtual optimization into the insole design process resulted in improved offloading performance compared to standard, shape-based devices. ISRCTN19805071, www.ISRCTN.org. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian

2010-01-01

Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

Managing Analysis Models in the Design Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Clark

2006-01-01

Design of large, complex space systems depends on significant model-based support for exploration of the design space. Integrated models predict system performance in mission-relevant terms given design descriptions and multiple physics-based numerical models. Both the design activities and the modeling activities warrant explicit process definitions and active process management to protect the project from excessive risk. Software and systems engineering processes have been formalized and similar formal process activities are under development for design engineering and integrated modeling. JPL is establishing a modeling process to define development and application of such system-level models.

The network approach and interventions to prevent HIV among injection drug users.

PubMed Central

Neaigus, A

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To review human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk reduction interventions among injecting drug users (IDUs) that have adopted a network approach. METHODS: The design and outcomes of selected network-based interventions among IDUs are reviewed using the network concepts of the dyad (two-person relationship), the personal risk network (an index person and all of his or her relationship), and the "sociometric" network (the complete set of relations between people in a population) and community. RESULTS: In a dyad intervention among HIV-serodiscordant couples, many of which included IDUs, there were no HIV seroconversions. Participants in personal risk network interventions were more likely to reduce drug risks and in some of these interventions, sexual risks, than were participants in individual-based interventions. Sociometric network interventions reached more IDUs and may be more cost-effective than individual-based interventions. CONCLUSION: Network-based HIV risk reduction interventions among IDUs, and others at risk for HIV, hold promise and should be encouraged. PMID:9722819

Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

PubMed

Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

2007-02-01

A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

Development of risk-based decision methodology for facility design.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

This report develops a methodology for CDOT to use in the risk analysis of various types of facilities and provides : illustrative examples for the use of the proposed framework. An overview of the current practices and applications to : illustrate t...

Finding the 'sweet spot' in value-based contracts.

PubMed

Eggbeer, Bill; Sears, Kevin; Homer, Ken

2015-08-01

Health systems pursing value-based contracts should address six important considerations: The definition of value. Contracting goals. Cost of implementation. Risk exposure. Contract structure and design. Essential contractual protections.

Nutritional approach for designing meat-based functional food products with nuts.

PubMed

Olmedilla-Alonso, B; Granado-Lorencio, F; Herrero-Barbudo, C; Blanco-Navarro, I

2006-01-01

Meat and meat products are essential components of diets in developed countries and despite the convincing evidence that relate them to an increased risk for CVD, a growing consumption of meat products is foreseen. Epidemiological studies show that regular consumption of nuts, in general, and walnuts in particular, correlates inversely with myocardial infarction and ischaemic vascular disease. We assess the nutritional basis for and technological approach to the development of functional meat-based products potentially relevant in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction. Using the available strategies in the meat industry (reformulation processes) and a food-based approach, we address the design and development of restructured beef steak with added walnuts, potentially functional for CVD risk reduction. Its adequacy as a vehicle for active nutrients is confirmed by a pharmacokinetic pilot study in humans using gamma-tocopherol as an exposure biomarker in chylomicrons during the post-prandial state. Effect and potential "functionality" is being assessed by a dietary intervention study in subjects at risk and markers and indicators related to CVD are being evaluated. Within the conceptual framework of evidence-based medicine, development of meat-based functional products may become a useful approach for specific applications, with a potential market and health benefits of great importance at a population level.

Ergonomics and simulation-based approach in improving facility layout

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abad, Jocelyn D.

2018-02-01

The use of the simulation-based technique in facility layout has been a choice in the industry due to its convenience and efficient generation of results. Nevertheless, the solutions generated are not capable of addressing delays due to worker's health and safety which significantly impact overall operational efficiency. It is, therefore, critical to incorporate ergonomics in facility design. In this study, workstation analysis was incorporated into Promodel simulation to improve the facility layout of a garment manufacturing. To test the effectiveness of the method, existing and improved facility designs were measured using comprehensive risk level, efficiency, and productivity. Results indicated that the improved facility layout generated a decrease in comprehensive risk level and rapid upper limb assessment score; an increase of 78% in efficiency and 194% increase in productivity compared to existing design and thus proved that the approach is effective in attaining overall facility design improvement.

Privacy and information security risks in a technology platform for home-based chronic disease rehabilitation and education

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Privacy and information security are important for all healthcare services, including home-based services. We have designed and implemented a prototype technology platform for providing home-based healthcare services. It supports a personal electronic health diary and enables secure and reliable communication and interaction with peers and healthcare personnel. The platform runs on a small computer with a dedicated remote control. It is connected to the patient’s TV and to a broadband Internet. The platform has been tested with home-based rehabilitation and education programs for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes. As part of our work, a risk assessment of privacy and security aspects has been performed, to reveal actual risks and to ensure adequate information security in this technical platform. Methods Risk assessment was performed in an iterative manner during the development process. Thus, security solutions have been incorporated into the design from an early stage instead of being included as an add-on to a nearly completed system. We have adapted existing risk management methods to our own environment, thus creating our own method. Our method conforms to ISO’s standard for information security risk management. Results A total of approximately 50 threats and possible unwanted incidents were identified and analysed. Among the threats to the four information security aspects: confidentiality, integrity, availability, and quality; confidentiality threats were identified as most serious, with one threat given an unacceptable level of High risk. This is because health-related personal information is regarded as sensitive. Availability threats were analysed as low risk, as the aim of the home programmes is to provide education and rehabilitation services; not for use in acute situations or for continuous health monitoring. Conclusions Most of the identified threats are applicable for healthcare services intended for patients or citizens in their own homes. Confidentiality risks in home are different from in a more controlled environment such as a hospital; and electronic equipment located in private homes and communicating via Internet, is more exposed to unauthorised access. By implementing the proposed measures, it has been possible to design a home-based service which ensures the necessary level of information security and privacy. PMID:23937965

Integrated Design Tools Reduce Risk, Cost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2012-01-01

Thanks in part to a SBIR award with Langley Research Center, Phoenix Integration Inc., based in Wayne, Pennsylvania, modified and advanced software for process integration and design automation. For NASA, the tool has resulted in lower project costs and reductions in design time; clients of Phoenix Integration are experiencing the same rewards.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 6: risk of bias assessment.

PubMed

Waddington, Hugh; Aloe, Ariel M; Becker, Betsy Jane; Djimeu, Eric W; Hombrados, Jorge Garcia; Tugwell, Peter; Wells, George; Reeves, Barney

2017-09-01

Rigorous and transparent bias assessment is a core component of high-quality systematic reviews. We assess modifications to existing risk of bias approaches to incorporate rigorous quasi-experimental approaches with selection on unobservables. These are nonrandomized studies using design-based approaches to control for unobservable sources of confounding such as difference studies, instrumental variables, interrupted time series, natural experiments, and regression-discontinuity designs. We review existing risk of bias tools. Drawing on these tools, we present domains of bias and suggest directions for evaluation questions. The review suggests that existing risk of bias tools provide, to different degrees, incomplete transparent criteria to assess the validity of these designs. The paper then presents an approach to evaluating the internal validity of quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. We conclude that tools for nonrandomized studies of interventions need to be further developed to incorporate evaluation questions for quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of a translating research into practice intervention to promote use of evidence-based fall prevention interventions in hospitalized adults: A prospective pre-post implementation study in the U.S.

PubMed

Titler, Marita G; Conlon, Paul; Reynolds, Margaret A; Ripley, Robert; Tsodikov, Alex; Wilson, Deleise S; Montie, Mary

2016-08-01

Falls are a major public health problem internationally. Many hospitals have implemented fall risk assessment tools, but few have implemented interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risks. Little research has been done to examine the effect of implementing evidence-based fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors in hospitalized adults. To evaluate the impact of implementing, in 3 U.S. hospitals, evidence-based fall prevention interventions targeted to patient-specific fall risk factors (Targeted Risk Factor Fall Prevention Bundle). Fall rates, fall injury rates, types of fall injuries and adoption of the Targeted Risk Factor Fall Prevention Bundle were compared prior to and following implementation. A prospective pre-post implementation cohort design. Thirteen adult medical-surgical units from three community hospitals in the Midwest region of the U.S. Nurses who were employed at least 20hours/week, provided direct patient care, and licensed as an RN (n=157 pre; 140 post); and medical records of patients 21years of age or older, who received care on the study unit for more than 24hours during the designated data collection period (n=390 pre and post). A multi-faceted Translating Research Into Practice Intervention was used to implement the Targeted Risk Factor Fall Prevention Bundle composed of evidence-based fall prevention interventions designed to mitigate patient-specific fall risks. Dependent variables (fall rates, fall injury rates, fall injury type, use of Targeted Risk Factor Fall Prevention Bundle) were collected at baseline, and following completion of the 15month implementation phase. Nurse questionnaires included the Stage of Adoption Scale, and the Use of Research Findings in Practice Scale to measure adoption of evidence-based fall prevention practices. A Medical Record Abstract Form was used to abstract data about use of targeted risk-specific fall prevention interventions. Number of falls, and number and types of fall injuries were collected for each study unit for 3months pre- and post-implementation. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis. Fall rates declined 22% (p=0.09). Types of fall injuries changed from major and moderate to minor injuries. Fall injury rates did not decline. Use of fall prevention interventions improved significantly (p<0.001) for mobility, toileting, cognition, and risk reduction for injury, but did not change for those targeting medications. Using the Translating Research Into Practice intervention promoted use of many evidence-based fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors in hospitalized adults. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2006-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.; Ponomarev, A.; Ren, L.; Shavers, M. R.; Wu, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Enhancing Cost Realism through Risk-Driven Contracting: Designing Incentive Fees Based on Probabilistic Cost Estimates

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

Comparison of Management Practices in the Army, Navy, and Air Force 142Defense ARJ, April 2012, Vol. 19 No. 2 : 133–160 It appears the pendulum may be...the cost risk for requiring greater innovation. However, this natural flattening trend also leads to a potential drawback of the risk-driven

Incorporating Risk Assessment into the Formative Evaluation of an Authentic e-Learning Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesper, James L.; Kartoglu, Ümit; Herrington, Jan; Reeves, Thomas C.

2016-01-01

This paper describes the use of two different risk assessment strategies during the design and development of a complex authentic task-based e-learning program developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The first strategy involved the use of expert reviewers and the second strategy employed the engagement of a risk assessment expert…

Retention in a Breast Cancer Risk Information Trial: Motivations of a Population-Based Sample of Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ariail, Kiley; Watts, Carolyn; Bowen, Deborah J.

2006-01-01

A better understanding of factors influencing retention in breast cancer risk education and prevention programs can improve the design and effectiveness of such programs. Such information may also be useful to researchers seeking to maximize full retention in research trials involving low risk and low perceived benefit by the participants. These…

Using ArcObjects for automating fireshed assessments and analyzing wildfire risk

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Bernhard Bahro; Mark Finney

2006-01-01

Firesheds are geographic units used by the Forest Service to delineate areas with similar fire regimes, fire history, and wildland fire risk issues. Fireshed assessment is a collaborative process where specialists design fuel treatments to mitigate wildfire risk. Fireshed assessments are an iterative process where fuel treatments are proposed for specific stands based...

Reading, Mathematics, and Behavioral Difficulties Interrelate: Evidence from a Cross-Lagged Panel Design and Population-Based Sample of US Upper Elementary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Yu-Chu; Morgan, Paul L.; Hillemeier, Marianne; Cook, Michael; Maczuga, Steve; Farkas, George

2013-01-01

We examined three questions. First, do reading difficulties increase children's risk of behavioral difficulties? Second, do behavioral difficulties increase children's risk of reading difficulties? Third, do mathematics difficulties increase children's risk of reading or behavioral difficulties? We investigated these questions using (a) a sample…

Towards more accurate life cycle risk management through integration of DDP and PRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Paulos, Todd; Meshkat, Leila; Feather, Martin

2003-01-01

The focus of this paper is on the integration of PRA and DDP. The intent is twofold: to extend risk-based decision though more of the lifecycle, and to lead to improved risk modeling (hence better informed decision making) wherever it is applied, most especially in the early phases as designs begin to mature.

Coal gasification systems engineering and analysis, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The major design related features of each generic plant system were characterized in a catalog. Based on the catalog and requirements data, approximately 17 designs and cost estimates were developed for MBG and alternate products. A series of generic trade studies was conducted to support all of the design studies. A set of cost and programmatic analyses were conducted to supplement the designs. The cost methodology employed for the design and sensitivity studies was documented and implemented in a computer program. Plant design and construction schedules were developed for the K-T, Texaco, and B&W MBG plant designs. A generic work breakdown structure was prepared, based on the K-T design, to coincide with TVA's planned management approach. An extensive set of cost sensitivity analyses was completed for K-T, Texaco, and B&W design. Product price competitiveness was evaluated for MBG and the alternate products. A draft management policy and procedures manual was evaluated. A supporting technology development plan was developed to address high technology risk issues. The issues were identified and ranked in terms of importance and tractability, and a plan developed for obtaining data or developing technology required to mitigate the risk.

Animated Randomness, Avatars, Movement, and Personalization in Risk Graphics

PubMed Central

Fuhrel-Forbis, Andrea; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Exe, Nicole; Dickson, Mark; Holtzman, Lisa; Kahn, Valerie C; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J

2014-01-01

Background Risk communication involves conveying two inherently difficult concepts about the nature of risk: the underlying random distribution of outcomes and how a population-based proportion applies to an individual. Objective The objective of this study was to test whether 4 design factors in icon arrays—animated random dispersal of risk events, avatars to represent an individual, personalization (operationalized as choosing the avatar’s color), and a moving avatar—might help convey randomness and how a given risk applies to an individual, thereby better aligning risk perceptions with risk estimates. Methods A diverse sample of 3630 adults with no previous heart disease or stroke completed an online nested factorial experiment in which they entered personal health data into a risk calculator that estimated 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease based on a robust and validated model. We randomly assigned them to view their results in 1 of 10 risk graphics that used different combinations of the 4 design factors. We measured participants’ risk perceptions as our primary outcome, as well as behavioral intentions and recall of the risk estimate. We also assessed subjective numeracy, whether or not participants knew anyone who had died of cardiovascular causes, and whether or not they knew their blood pressure and cholesterol as potential moderators. Results Animated randomness was associated with better alignment between risk estimates and risk perceptions (F 1,3576=6.12, P=.01); however, it also led to lower scores on healthy lifestyle intentions (F 1,3572=11.1, P<.001). Using an avatar increased risk perceptions overall (F 1,3576=4.61, P=.03) and most significantly increased risk perceptions among those who did not know a particular person who had experienced the grave outcomes of cardiovascular disease (F 1,3576=5.88, P=.02). Using an avatar also better aligned actual risk estimates with intentions to see a doctor (F 1,3556=6.38, P=.01). No design factors had main effects on recall, but animated randomness was associated with better recall for those at lower risk and worse recall for those at higher risk (F 1,3544=7.06, P=.01). Conclusions Animated randomness may help people better understand the random nature of risk. However, in the context of cardiovascular risk, such understanding may result in lower healthy lifestyle intentions. Therefore, whether or not to display randomness may depend on whether one’s goal is to persuade or to inform. Avatars show promise for helping people grasp how population-based statistics map to an individual case. PMID:24642037

Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone.

PubMed

Iurian, Sonia; Turdean, Luana; Tomuta, Ioan

2017-01-01

This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal) delivery, containing Kollidon ® SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC), or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio ( X 1 ), the type of hydrophilic polymer ( X 2 ), and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer ( X 3 ) on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h ( Y 1 - Y 9 ). Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring.

Use of Model-Based Design Methods for Enhancing Resiliency Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Lenora A.

The most common traditional non-functional requirement analysis is reliability. With systems becoming more complex, networked, and adaptive to environmental uncertainties, system resiliency has recently become the non-functional requirement analysis of choice. Analysis of system resiliency has challenges; which include, defining resilience for domain areas, identifying resilience metrics, determining resilience modeling strategies, and understanding how to best integrate the concepts of risk and reliability into resiliency. Formal methods that integrate all of these concepts do not currently exist in specific domain areas. Leveraging RAMSoS, a model-based reliability analysis methodology for Systems of Systems (SoS), we propose an extension that accounts for resiliency analysis through evaluation of mission performance, risk, and cost using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) modeling and design trade study variability modeling evaluation techniques. This proposed methodology, coined RAMSoS-RESIL, is applied to a case study in the multi-agent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) domain to investigate the potential benefits of a mission architecture where functionality to complete a mission is disseminated across multiple UAVs (distributed) opposed to being contained in a single UAV (monolithic). The case study based research demonstrates proof of concept for the proposed model-based technique and provides sufficient preliminary evidence to conclude which architectural design (distributed vs. monolithic) is most resilient based on insight into mission resilience performance, risk, and cost in addition to the traditional analysis of reliability.

Testing the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease Hypothesis for Psychopathology Using Family-Based Quasi-Experimental Designs

PubMed Central

D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Class, Quetzal A.; Lahey, Benjamin B.; Larsson, Henrik

2014-01-01

The Developmental Origin of Health and Disease (DOHaD) hypothesis is a broad theoretical framework that emphasizes how early risk factors have a causal influence on psychopathology. Researchers have raised concerns about the causal interpretation of statistical associations between early risk factors and later psychopathology because most existing studies have been unable to rule out the possibility of environmental and genetic confounding. In this paper we illustrate how family-based quasi-experimental designs can test the DOHaD hypothesis by ruling out alternative hypotheses. We review the logic underlying sibling-comparison, co-twin control, offspring of siblings/twins, adoption, and in vitro fertilization designs. We then present results from studies using these designs focused on broad indices of fetal development (low birth weight and gestational age) and a particular teratogen, smoking during pregnancy. The results provide mixed support for the DOHaD hypothesis for psychopathology, illustrating the critical need to use design features that rule out unmeasured confounding. PMID:25364377

The Research on Safety Management Information System of Railway Passenger Based on Risk Management Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wenmin; Jia, Yuanhua

2018-01-01

Based on the risk management theory and the PDCA cycle model, requirements of the railway passenger transport safety production is analyzed, and the establishment of the security risk assessment team is proposed to manage risk by FTA with Delphi from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The safety production committee is also established to accomplish performance appraisal, which is for further ensuring the correctness of risk management results, optimizing the safety management business processes and improving risk management capabilities. The basic framework and risk information database of risk management information system of railway passenger transport safety are designed by Ajax, Web Services and SQL technologies. The system realizes functions about risk management, performance appraisal and data management, and provides an efficient and convenient information management platform for railway passenger safety manager.

Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

PubMed

Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

2015-12-15

Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evidence- and risk-based approach to a harmonized laboratory alert list in Australia and New Zealand.

PubMed

Campbell, Craig A; Lam, Que; Horvath, Andrea R

2018-04-19

Individual laboratories are required to compose an alert list for identifying critical and significant risk results. The high-risk result working party of the Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia (RCPA) and the Australasian Association of Clinical Biochemists (AACB) has developed a risk-based approach for a harmonized alert list for laboratories throughout Australia and New Zealand. The six-step process for alert threshold identification and assessment involves reviewing the literature, rating the available evidence, performing a risk analysis, assessing method transferability, considering workload implications and seeking endorsement from stakeholders. To demonstrate this approach, a worked example for deciding the upper alert threshold for potassium is described. The findings of the worked example are for infants aged 0-6 months, a recommended upper potassium alert threshold of >7.0 mmol/L in serum and >6.5 mmol/L in plasma, and for individuals older than 6 months, a threshold of >6.2 mmol/L in both serum and plasma. Limitations in defining alert thresholds include the lack of well-designed studies that measure the relationship between high-risk results and patient outcomes or the benefits of treatment to prevent harm, and the existence of a wide range of clinical practice guidelines with conflicting decision points at which treatment is required. The risk-based approach described presents a transparent, evidence- and consensus-based methodology that can be used by any laboratory when designing an alert list for local use. The RCPA-AACB harmonized alert list serves as a starter set for further local adaptation or adoption after consultation with clinical users.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Effects of a Computer-Based Early Reading Program on the Early Reading and Oral Language Skills of At-Risk Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huffstetter, Mary; King, James R.; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.; Schneider, Jenifer J.; Powell-Smith, Kelly A.

2010-01-01

This study examined the effects of a computer-based early reading program (Headsprout Early Reading) on the oral language and early reading skills of at-risk preschool children. In a pretest-posttest control group design, 62 children were randomly assigned to receive supplemental instruction with Headsprout Early Reading (experimental group) or…

Evaluating a Web-Based Educational Module on Oral Cancer Examination Based on a Behavioral Framework.

PubMed

Wee, Alvin G; Zimmerman, Lani M; Pullen, Carol H; Allen, Carl M; Lambert, Paul M; Paskett, Electra D

2016-03-01

Patients at risk of developing oral and/or oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) are more likely to see primary care providers (PCPs) than a dentist. Many PCPs do not regularly perform oral cancer examination (OCE). The purpose of this study was to design a web-based educational program based on a behavioral framework to encourage PCPs to conduct OCE. PCPs were solicited to provide feedback on the program and to evaluate their short-term knowledge. The integrated behavioral model was used to design the program. Fifteen PCPs (five in each group: physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners) reviewed the program and took a posttest: (1) index of knowledge of risk factors for oral cancer (RiskOC) and (2) index of knowledge of diagnostic procedures for oral cancer (DiagOC). Findings from the process evaluation were mainly positive, with comments on the length of the program comprising the ten negative comments. No significant difference among groups of PCPs (physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners) was detected for DiagOC (p = 0.43) or RiskOC (p = 0.201). A program on OPC for PCPs should be less than 40 min. Postviewing knowledge outcomes were similar for all PCPs. The web-based program on OPC based on a behavioral framework could have similar short-term knowledge outcomes for all PCPs and may increase the number of PCPs performing OCEs.

Market-implied spread for earthquake CAT bonds: financial implications of engineering decisions.

PubMed

Damnjanovic, Ivan; Aslan, Zafer; Mander, John

2010-12-01

In the event of natural and man-made disasters, owners of large-scale infrastructure facilities (assets) need contingency plans to effectively restore the operations within the acceptable timescales. Traditionally, the insurance sector provides the coverage against potential losses. However, there are many problems associated with this traditional approach to risk transfer including counterparty risk and litigation. Recently, a number of innovative risk mitigation methods, termed alternative risk transfer (ART) methods, have been introduced to address these problems. One of the most important ART methods is catastrophe (CAT) bonds. The objective of this article is to develop an integrative model that links engineering design parameters with financial indicators including spread and bond rating. The developed framework is based on a four-step structural loss model and transformed survival model to determine expected excess returns. We illustrate the framework for a seismically designed bridge using two unique CAT bond contracts. The results show a nonlinear relationship between engineering design parameters and market-implied spread. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Market Mechanism Design for Renewable Energy based on Risk Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wu; Bo, Wang; Jichun, Liu; Wenjiao, Zai; Pingliang, Zeng; Haobo, Shi

2018-02-01

Generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is an efficient market means for transforming supply structure of electric power into sustainable development pattern. But the trading is hampered by the output fluctuations of renewable energy and the cost differences between renewable energy and thermal power at present. In this paper, the external environmental cost (EEC) is defined and the EEC is introduced into the generation cost. At same time, the incentive functions of renewable energy and low-emission thermal power are designed, which are decreasing functions of EEC. On these bases, for the market risks caused by the random variability of EEC, the decision-making model of generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is constructed according to the risk theory. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation results.

Supporting virtual enterprise design by a web-based information model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dong; Barn, Balbir; McKay, Alison; de Pennington, Alan

2001-10-01

Development of IT and its applications have led to significant changes in business processes. To pursue agility, flexibility and best service to customers, enterprises focus on their core competence and dynamically build relationships with partners to form virtual enterprises as customer driven temporary demand chains/networks. Building the networked enterprise needs responsively interactive decisions instead of a single-direction partner selection process. Benefits and risks in the combination should be systematically analysed, and aggregated information about value-adding abilities and risks of networks needs to be derived from interactions of all partners. In this research, a hierarchical information model to assess partnerships for designing virtual enterprises was developed. Internet technique has been applied to the evaluation process so that interactive decisions can be visualised and made responsively during the design process. The assessment is based on the process which allows each partner responds to requirements of the virtual enterprise by planning its operational process as a bidder. The assessment is then produced by making an aggregated value to represent prospect of the combination of partners given current bidding. Final design is a combination of partners with the greatest total value-adding capability and lowest risk.

Risk management algorithm for rear-side collision avoidance using a combined steering torque overlay and differential braking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Junyung; Yi, Kyongsu; Yoo, Hyunjae; Chong, Hyokjin; Ko, Bongchul

2015-06-01

This paper describes a risk management algorithm for rear-side collision avoidance. The proposed risk management algorithm consists of a supervisor and a coordinator. The supervisor is designed to monitor collision risks between the subject vehicle and approaching vehicle in the adjacent lane. An appropriate criterion of intervention, which satisfies high acceptance to drivers through the consideration of a realistic traffic, has been determined based on the analysis of the kinematics of the vehicles in longitudinal and lateral directions. In order to assist the driver actively and increase driver's safety, a coordinator is designed to combine lateral control using a steering torque overlay by motor-driven power steering and differential braking by vehicle stability control. In order to prevent the collision while limiting actuator's control inputs and vehicle dynamics to safe values for the assurance of the driver's comfort, the Lyapunov theory and linear matrix inequalities based optimisation methods have been used. The proposed risk management algorithm has been evaluated via simulation using CarSim and MATLAB/Simulink.

Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.

2015-12-01

In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.

Probabilistic risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations: robust design and support for decision making under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oladyshkin, Sergey; Class, Holger; Helmig, Rainer; Nowak, Wolfgang

2010-05-01

CO2 storage in geological formations is currently being discussed intensively as a technology for mitigating CO2 emissions. However, any large-scale application requires a thorough analysis of the potential risks. Current numerical simulation models are too expensive for probabilistic risk analysis and for stochastic approaches based on brute-force repeated simulation. Even single deterministic simulations may require parallel high-performance computing. The multiphase flow processes involved are too non-linear for quasi-linear error propagation and other simplified stochastic tools. As an alternative approach, we propose a massive stochastic model reduction based on the probabilistic collocation method. The model response is projected onto a orthogonal basis of higher-order polynomials to approximate dependence on uncertain parameters (porosity, permeability etc.) and design parameters (injection rate, depth etc.). This allows for a non-linear propagation of model uncertainty affecting the predicted risk, ensures fast computation and provides a powerful tool for combining design variables and uncertain variables into one approach based on an integrative response surface. Thus, the design task of finding optimal injection regimes explicitly includes uncertainty, which leads to robust designs of the non-linear system that minimize failure probability and provide valuable support for risk-informed management decisions. We validate our proposed stochastic approach by Monte Carlo simulation using a common 3D benchmark problem (Class et al. Computational Geosciences 13, 2009). A reasonable compromise between computational efforts and precision was reached already with second-order polynomials. In our case study, the proposed approach yields a significant computational speedup by a factor of 100 compared to Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that, due to the non-linearity of the flow and transport processes during CO2 injection, including uncertainty in the analysis leads to a systematic and significant shift of predicted leakage rates towards higher values compared with deterministic simulations, affecting both risk estimates and the design of injection scenarios. This implies that, neglecting uncertainty can be a strong simplification for modeling CO2 injection, and the consequences can be stronger than when neglecting several physical phenomena (e.g. phase transition, convective mixing, capillary forces etc.). The authors would like to thank the German Research Foundation (DFG) for financial support of the project within the Cluster of Excellence in Simulation Technology (EXC 310/1) at the University of Stuttgart. Keywords: polynomial chaos; CO2 storage; multiphase flow; porous media; risk assessment; uncertainty; integrative response surfaces

Methodological Overview of an African American Couple-Based HIV/STD Prevention Trial

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Objective To provide an overview of the NIMH Multisite HIV/STD Prevention Trial for African American Couples conducted in four urban areas: Atlanta, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia. The rationale, study design methods, proposed data analyses, and study management are described. Design This is a two arm randomized Trial, implementing a modified randomized block design, to evaluate the efficacy of a couples based intervention designed for HIV serodiscordant African American couples. Methods The study phases consisted of formative work, pilot studies, and a randomized clinical trial. The sample is 535 HIV serodiscordant heterosexual African American couples. There are two theoretically derived behavioral interventions with eight group and individual sessions: the Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention (treatment) versus the Eban Health Promotion Intervention (control). The treatment intervention was couples based and focused on HIV/STD risk reduction while the control was individual based and focused on health promotion. The two study conditions were structurally similar in length and types of activities. At baseline, participants completed an Audio Computer-assisted Self Interview (ACASI) interview as well as interviewer-administered questionnaire, and provided biological specimens to assess for STDs. Similar follow-up assessments were conducted immediately after the intervention, at 6 months, and at 12 months. Results The Trial results will be analyzed across the four sites by randomization assignment. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) and mixed effects modeling (MEM) are planned to test: (1) the effects of the intervention on STD incidence and condom use as well as on mediator variables of these outcomes, and (2) whether the effects of the intervention differ depending on key moderator variables (e.g., gender of the HIV-seropositive partners, length of relationship, psychological distress, sexual abuse history, and substance abuse history). Conclusions The lessons learned from the design and conduct of this clinical trial provide guidelines for future couples based clinical trials in HIV/STD risk reduction and can be generalized to other couples based behavioral interventions. PMID:18724188

Designing an Internationally Accessible Web-Based Questionnaire to Discover Risk Factors for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Parkin Kullmann, Jane Alana; Hayes, Susan; Wang, Min-Xia

2015-01-01

Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with a typical survival of three to five years. Epidemiological studies using paper-based questionnaires in individual countries or continents have failed to find widely accepted risk factors for the disease. The advantages of online versus paper-based questionnaires have been extensively reviewed, but few online epidemiological studies into human neurodegenerative diseases have so far been undertaken. Objective To design a Web-based questionnaire to identify environmental risk factors for ALS and enable international comparisons of these risk factors. Methods A Web-based epidemiological questionnaire for ALS has been developed based on experience gained from administering a previous continent-wide paper-based questionnaire for this disease. New and modified questions have been added from our previous paper-based questionnaire, from literature searches, and from validated ALS questionnaires supplied by other investigators. New criteria to allow the separation of familial and sporadic ALS cases have been included. The questionnaire addresses many risk factors that have already been proposed for ALS, as well as a number that have not yet been rigorously examined. To encourage participation, responses are collected anonymously and no personally identifiable information is requested. The survey is being translated into a number of languages which will allow many people around the world to read and answer it in their own language. Results After the questionnaire had been online for 4 months, it had 379 respondents compared to only 46 respondents for the same initial period using a paper-based questionnaire. The average age of the first 379 web questionnaire respondents was 54 years compared to the average age of 60 years for the first 379 paper questionnaire respondents. The questionnaire is soon to be promoted in a number of countries through ALS associations and disease registries. Conclusions Web-based questionnaires are a time- and resource-efficient method for performing large epidemiological studies of neurodegenerative diseases such as ALS. The ability to compare risk factors between different countries using the same analysis tool will be of particular value for finding robust risk factors that underlie ALS. PMID:26239255

Toward the Development of Integrative Risk-Adjusted Measures of Quality Using Large Clinical Data Bases: The Case of Anesthesia Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Steven T.

1992-01-01

The concept of risk-adjusted measures of quality is discussed, and a methodology is proposed for risk-adjusting and integrating multiple adverse outcomes of anesthesia services into measures for quality assurance and quality improvement programs. Although designed for a new anesthesiology database, the methods should apply to other health…

A Cognitive Approach to Child Mistreatment Prevention among Medically At-Risk Infants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bugental, Daphne Blunt; Schwartz, Alex

2009-01-01

The authors assessed the effectiveness of a home visitation program in enhancing the early parenting history of infants born at medical risk--a population that is at risk for mistreatment. A randomized clinical trial design was used to compare the effects of a cognitively based extension of the Healthy Start home visitation program (HV+) with a…

Risk Factors of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Logistic Regression Tree Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yamashita, Takashi; Noe, Douglas A.; Bailer, A. John

2012-01-01

Purpose of the Study: A novel logistic regression tree-based method was applied to identify fall risk factors and possible interaction effects of those risk factors. Design and Methods: A nationally representative sample of American older adults aged 65 years and older (N = 9,592) in the Health and Retirement Study 2004 and 2006 modules was used.…

Evaluation of the Families SHARE workbook: an educational tool outlining disease risk and healthy guidelines to reduce risk of heart disease, diabetes, breast cancer and colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Koehly, Laura M; Morris, Bronwyn A; Skapinsky, Kaley; Goergen, Andrea; Ludden, Amanda

2015-11-13

Common diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer are etiologically complex with multiple risk factors (e.g., environment, genetic, lifestyle). These risk factors tend to cluster in families, making families an important social context for intervention and lifestyle-focused disease prevention. The Families Sharing Health Assessment and Risk Evaluation (SHARE) workbook was designed as an educational tool outlining family health history based risk of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer. The current paper describes the steps taken to develop and evaluate the workbook employing a user-centered design approach. The workbook was developed in four steps, culminating in an evaluation focusing on understanding and usability of the tool. The evaluation was based on two Phases of data collected from a sample of mothers of young children in the Washington, D.C., area. A baseline assessment and follow-up approximately two weeks after receipt of the workbook were conducted, as well as focus groups with participants. The design of the workbook was refined in response to participant feedback from the first evaluation Phase and subsequently re-evaluated with a new sample. After incorporating user-based feedback and revising the workbook, Phase 2 evaluation results indicated that understanding of the workbook components improved for all sections (from 6.26 to 6.81 on a 7-point scale). In addition, 100% of users were able to use the algorithm to assess their disease risk and over 60% used the algorithm to assess family members' disease risk. At follow-up, confidence to increase fruit, vegetable and fiber intake improved significantly, as well. The Families SHARE workbook was developed and evaluated resulting in a family health history tool that is both understandable and usable by key stakeholders. This educational tool will be used in intervention studies assessing the effectiveness of family genomics health educators who use the Families SHARE workbook to disseminate family risk information and encourage risk reducing behaviors. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01498276 . Registered 21 December 2011.

Social network recruitment for Yo Puedo: an innovative sexual health intervention in an underserved urban neighborhood—sample and design implications.

PubMed

Minnis, Alexandra M; vanDommelen-Gonzalez, Evan; Luecke, Ellen; Cheng, Helen; Dow, William; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Padian, Nancy S

2015-02-01

Most existing evidence-based sexual health interventions focus on individual-level behavior, even though there is substantial evidence that highlights the influential role of social environments in shaping adolescents' behaviors and reproductive health outcomes. We developed Yo Puedo, a combined conditional cash transfer and life skills intervention for youth to promote educational attainment, job training, and reproductive health wellness that we then evaluated for feasibility among 162 youth aged 16-21 years in a predominantly Latino community in San Francisco, CA. The intervention targeted youth's social networks and involved recruitment and randomization of small social network clusters. In this paper we describe the design of the feasibility study and report participants' baseline characteristics. Furthermore, we examined the sample and design implications of recruiting social network clusters as the unit of randomization. Baseline data provide evidence that we successfully enrolled high risk youth using a social network recruitment approach in community and school-based settings. Nearly all participants (95%) were high risk for adverse educational and reproductive health outcomes based on multiple measures of low socioeconomic status (81%) and/or reported high risk behaviors (e.g., gang affiliation, past pregnancy, recent unprotected sex, frequent substance use; 62%). We achieved variability in the study sample through heterogeneity in recruitment of the index participants, whereas the individuals within the small social networks of close friends demonstrated substantial homogeneity across sociodemographic and risk profile characteristics. Social networks recruitment was feasible and yielded a sample of high risk youth willing to enroll in a randomized study to evaluate a novel sexual health intervention.

Implementation of "Quality by Design (QbD)" Approach for the Development of 5-Fluorouracil Loaded Thermosensitive Hydrogel.

PubMed

Dalwadi, Chintan; Patel, Gayatri

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate Quality by Design (QbD) principle for the preparation of hydrogel products to prove both practicability and utility of executing QbD concept to hydrogel based controlled release systems. Product and process understanding will help in decreasing the variability of critical material and process parameters, which give quality product output and reduce the risk. This study includes the identification of the Quality Target Product Profiles (QTPPs) and Critical Quality Attributes (CQAs) from literature or preliminary studies. To identify and control the variability in process and material attributes, two tools of QbD was utilized, Quality Risk Management (QRM) and Experimental Design. Further, it helps to identify the effect of these attributes on CQAs. Potential risk factors were identified from fishbone diagram and screened by risk assessment and optimized by 3-level 2- factor experimental design with center points in triplicate, to analyze the precision of the target process. This optimized formulation was further characterized by gelling time, gelling temperature, rheological parameters, in-vitro biodegradation and in-vitro drug release. Design space was created using experimental design tool that gives the control space and working within this controlled space reduces all the failure modes below the risk level. In conclusion, QbD approach with QRM tool provides potent and effectual pyramid to enhance the quality into the hydrogel.

Derailment-based Fault Tree Analysis on Risk Management of Railway Turnout Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; An, Min; Gigante-Barrera, Ángel

2017-10-01

Railway turnouts are fundamental mechanical infrastructures, which allow a rolling stock to divert one direction to another. As those are of a large number of engineering subsystems, e.g. track, signalling, earthworks, these particular sub-systems are expected to induce high potential through various kind of failure mechanisms. This could be a cause of any catastrophic event. A derailment, one of undesirable events in railway operation, often results, albeit rare occurs, in damaging to rolling stock, railway infrastructure and disrupt service, and has the potential to cause casualties and even loss of lives. As a result, it is quite significant that a well-designed risk analysis is performed to create awareness of hazards and to identify what parts of the systems may be at risk. This study will focus on all types of environment based failures as a result of numerous contributing factors noted officially as accident reports. This risk analysis is designed to help industry to minimise the occurrence of accidents at railway turnouts. The methodology of the study relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood, and is based on statistical multiple factors-integrated accident rate analysis. The study is prepared in the way of establishing product risks and faults, and showing the impact of potential process by Boolean algebra.

A Bayesian Framework for Analysis of Pseudo-Spatial Models of Comparable Engineered Systems with Application to Spacecraft Anomaly Prediction Based on Precedent Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndu, Obibobi Kamtochukwu

To ensure that estimates of risk and reliability inform design and resource allocation decisions in the development of complex engineering systems, early engagement in the design life cycle is necessary. An unfortunate constraint on the accuracy of such estimates at this stage of concept development is the limited amount of high fidelity design and failure information available on the actual system under development. Applying the human ability to learn from experience and augment our state of knowledge to evolve better solutions mitigates this limitation. However, the challenge lies in formalizing a methodology that takes this highly abstract, but fundamentally human cognitive, ability and extending it to the field of risk analysis while maintaining the tenets of generalization, Bayesian inference, and probabilistic risk analysis. We introduce an integrated framework for inferring the reliability, or other probabilistic measures of interest, of a new system or a conceptual variant of an existing system. Abstractly, our framework is based on learning from the performance of precedent designs and then applying the acquired knowledge, appropriately adjusted based on degree of relevance, to the inference process. This dissertation presents a method for inferring properties of the conceptual variant using a pseudo-spatial model that describes the spatial configuration of the family of systems to which the concept belongs. Through non-metric multidimensional scaling, we formulate the pseudo-spatial model based on rank-ordered subjective expert perception of design similarity between systems that elucidate the psychological space of the family. By a novel extension of Kriging methods for analysis of geospatial data to our "pseudo-space of comparable engineered systems", we develop a Bayesian inference model that allows prediction of the probabilistic measure of interest.

Integrated layout based Monte-Carlo simulation for design arc optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Dongbing; Clevenger, Larry; Zhuang, Lei; Liebmann, Lars; Wong, Robert; Culp, James

2016-03-01

Design rules are created considering a wafer fail mechanism with the relevant design levels under various design cases, and the values are set to cover the worst scenario. Because of the simplification and generalization, design rule hinders, rather than helps, dense device scaling. As an example, SRAM designs always need extensive ground rule waivers. Furthermore, dense design also often involves "design arc", a collection of design rules, the sum of which equals critical pitch defined by technology. In design arc, a single rule change can lead to chain reaction of other rule violations. In this talk we present a methodology using Layout Based Monte-Carlo Simulation (LBMCS) with integrated multiple ground rule checks. We apply this methodology on SRAM word line contact, and the result is a layout that has balanced wafer fail risks based on Process Assumptions (PAs). This work was performed at the IBM Microelectronics Div, Semiconductor Research and Development Center, Hopewell Junction, NY 12533

Value-based formulas for purchasing. PEHP's designated service provider program: value-based purchasing through global fees.

PubMed

Emery, D W

1997-01-01

In many circles, managed care and capitation have become synonymous; unfortunately, the assumptions informing capitation are based on a flawed unidimensional model of risk. PEHP of Utah has rejected the unidimensional model and has therefore embraced a multidimensional model of risk that suggests that global fees are the optimal purchasing modality. A globally priced episode of care forms a natural unit of analysis that enhances purchasing clarity, allows providers to more efficiently focus on the Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution, and conforms to the multidimensional reality of risk. Most importantly, global fees simultaneously maximize patient choice and provider cost consciousness.

Guidelines for contingency planning NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) ADP security risk reduction decision studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tompkins, F. G.

1984-01-01

Guidance is presented to NASA Computer Security Officials for determining the acceptability or unacceptability of ADP security risks based on the technical, operational and economic feasibility of potential safeguards. The risk management process is reviewed as a specialized application of the systems approach to problem solving and information systems analysis and design. Reporting the results of the risk reduction analysis to management is considered. Report formats for the risk reduction study are provided.

An assessment of tailoring of lightning protection design requirements for a composite wing structure on a metallic aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harwood, T. L.

1991-01-01

The Navy A-6E aircraft is presently being modified with a new wing which uses graphite/epoxy structures and substructures around a titanium load-bearing structure. The ability of composites to conduct electricity is less than that of aluminum. This is cause for concern when the wing may be required to conduct large lightning currents. The manufacturer attempted to solve lightning protection issues by performing a risk assessment based on a statistical approach which allows relaxation of the wing lightning protection design levels over certain locations of the composite wing. A sensitivity study is presented designed to define the total risk of relaxation of the design levels.

Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2014-05-01

The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

A Comparison of Word Learning in 3-Year-Old Children At-Risk for Language and Literacy Difficulties in Two Conditions: Dialogic Reading and Activity-Based Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rahn, Naomi L.

2013-01-01

Existing research suggests a need for an intervention that can accelerate vocabulary acquisition for young children at-risk due to poverty. An adapted alternating treatments design was used to examine the effects of Dialogic Reading and Activity-Based Intervention (ABI) on participants' production of target words. Participants were three…

Advantages and Disadvantages of Physiological Assessment For Next Generation Control Room Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Donald D. Dudenhoeffer

2007-08-01

Abstract - We propose using non-obtrusive physiological assessment (e.g., eye tracking,) to assess human information processing errors (e.g., loss of vigilance) and limitations (e.g., workload) for advanced energy systems early in the design process. This physiological approach for assessing risk will circumvent many limitations of current risk methodologies such as subjective rating (e.g., rater’s biases) and performance modeling (e.g., risk assessment is scripted and is based upon the individual modeler’s judgment). Key uses will be to evaluate (early in the design process) novel control room equipment and configurations as well as newly developed automated systems that will inevitably place amore » high information load on operators. The physiological risk assessment tool will allow better precision in pinpointing problematic design issues and will provide a “real-time” assessment of risk. Furthermore, this physiological approach would extend the state-of-the-art of human reliability methods from a “static” measure to more “dynamic.” This paper will discuss a broad range of the current popular online performance gauges as well as its advantages and disadvantages for use in next generation control room.« less

NATIONAL RESEARCH NEEDS CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS: RISK-BASED DECISION MAKING FOR ONSITE WASTEWATER TREATMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The Research Needs Conference Proceedings consist of a description of the background for the project and a series of white papers on the topics of integrated risk assessment/management for decentralized wastewater systems, design and performance of onsite soil adsorption systems,...

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

PubMed Central

Amelung, Volker E.; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast accuracy. For this reason, it is necessary to clearly regulate the method of risk adjustment in the integrated care contract. Conclusions and discussion: The series of three articles on contract design has shown that coordination and motivation problems in designing healthcare contracts cannot be solved at no-costs. Moreover, it became clear, that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic and that contracts do always include certain uncertainties. These are based on the risk of random, and no contracting party can control these risks completely. It is also not possible to fully integrate these risks in the contract or to eliminate these risks by the parties. PMID:29632454

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment Applied to Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie; Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott

2008-01-01

A simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.

Constellation Program (CxP) Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Project Integrated Landing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John D.; Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.; Eisenman, David J.; Peer, Scott G.; Fasanella, Edward L.; Lawrence, Charles

2009-01-01

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Chief Engineer requested a risk comparison of the Integrated Landing System design developed by NASA and the design developed by Contractor- referred to as the LM 604 baseline. Based on the results of this risk comparison, the CEV Chief engineer requested that the NESC evaluate identified risks and develop strategies for their reduction or mitigation. The assessment progressed in two phases. A brief Phase I analysis was performed by the Water versus Land-Landing Team to compare the CEV Integrated Landing System proposed by the Contractor against the NASA TS-LRS001 baseline with respect to risk. A phase II effort examined the areas of critical importance to the overall landing risk, evaluating risk to the crew and to the CEV Crew Module (CM) during a nominal land-landing. The findings of the assessment are contained in this report.

Serum carotenoid and tocopherol concentrations and risk of asthma in childhood: a nested case-control study.

PubMed

Hämäläinen, N; Nwaru, B I; Erlund, I; Takkinen, H-M; Ahonen, S; Toppari, J; Ilonen, J; Veijola, R; Knip, M; Kaila, M; Virtanen, S M

2017-03-01

The antioxidant hypothesis regarding the risk of asthma in childhood has resulted in inconsistent findings. Some data indicate that the role of antioxidants in childhood asthma risk may have a critical time window of effect, but only a well-designed longitudinal cohort study can clarify this hypothesis. To study the longitudinal associations between serum carotenoid and tocopherol concentrations during the first 4 years of life and asthma risk by the age of 5 years. Based on a case-control design nested within a Finnish birth cohort, 146 asthma cases were matched to 270 controls on birth time, sex, genetic risk, and birth place. Non-fasting blood samples were collected at the ages of 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 years and serum carotenoids and tocopherols were analysed. Parents reported the presence and age at start of persistent doctor-diagnosed asthma in the child at the age of 5 years. Data analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations. We did not find strong associations between serum carotenoids and tocopherols and the risk of asthma based on age-specific and longitudinal analyses. Both lower and higher quarters of α-carotene and γ-tocopherol increased the risk of asthma. The current findings do not support the suggestion that the increased prevalence of asthma may be a consequence of decreased intake of antioxidant nutrients. Moreover, we did not confirm any critical time window of impact of antioxidants on asthma risk. Replication of these findings in similar longitudinal settings will strengthen this evidence base. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

TU-FG-201-12: Designing a Risk-Based Quality Assurance Program for a Newly Implemented Y-90 Microspheres Procedure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vile, D; Zhang, L; Cuttino, L

2016-06-15

Purpose: To create a quality assurance program based upon a risk-based assessment of a newly implemented SirSpheres Y-90 procedure. Methods: A process map was created for a newly implemented SirSpheres procedure at a community hospital. The process map documented each step of this collaborative procedure, as well as the roles and responsibilities of each member. From the process map, different potential failure modes were determined as well as any current controls in place. From this list, a full failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was performed by grading each failure mode’s likelihood of occurrence, likelihood of detection, and potential severity.more » These numbers were then multiplied to compute the risk priority number (RPN) for each potential failure mode. Failure modes were then ranked based on their RPN. Additional controls were then added, with failure modes corresponding to the highest RPNs taking priority. Results: A process map was created that succinctly outlined each step in the SirSpheres procedure in its current implementation. From this, 72 potential failure modes were identified and ranked according to their associated RPN. Quality assurance controls and safety barriers were then added for failure modes associated with the highest risk being addressed first. Conclusion: A quality assurance program was created from a risk-based assessment of the SirSpheres process. Process mapping and FMEA were effective in identifying potential high-risk failure modes for this new procedure, which were prioritized for new quality assurance controls. TG 100 recommends the fault tree analysis methodology to design a comprehensive and effective QC/QM program, yet we found that by simply introducing additional safety barriers to address high RPN failure modes makes the whole process simpler and safer.« less

Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone

PubMed Central

Iurian, Sonia; Turdean, Luana; Tomuta, Ioan

2017-01-01

This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal) delivery, containing Kollidon® SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC), or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio (X1), the type of hydrophilic polymer (X2), and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer (X3) on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h (Y1–Y9). Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring. PMID:28331293

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

PubMed

Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

2017-08-01

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

Hygrothermal Simulation: A Tool for Building Envelope Design Analysis

Treesearch

Samuel V. Glass; Anton TenWolde; Samuel L. Zelinka

2013-01-01

Is it possible to gauge the risk of moisture problems while designing the building envelope? This article provides a brief introduction to computer-based hygrothermal (heat and moisture) simulation, shows how simulation can be useful as a design tool, and points out a number of im-portant considerations regarding model inputs and limita-tions. Hygrothermal simulation...

PCA-based polling strategy in machine learning framework for coronary artery disease risk assessment in intravascular ultrasound: A link between carotid and coronary grayscale plaque morphology.

PubMed

Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Shukla, Devarshi; Jain, Pankaj K; Londhe, Narendra D; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Banchhor, Sumit K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

2016-05-01

Percutaneous coronary interventional procedures need advance planning prior to stenting or an endarterectomy. Cardiologists use intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) for screening, risk assessment and stratification of coronary artery disease (CAD). We hypothesize that plaque components are vulnerable to rupture due to plaque progression. Currently, there are no standard grayscale IVUS tools for risk assessment of plaque rupture. This paper presents a novel strategy for risk stratification based on plaque morphology embedded with principal component analysis (PCA) for plaque feature dimensionality reduction and dominant feature selection technique. The risk assessment utilizes 56 grayscale coronary features in a machine learning framework while linking information from carotid and coronary plaque burdens due to their common genetic makeup. This system consists of a machine learning paradigm which uses a support vector machine (SVM) combined with PCA for optimal and dominant coronary artery morphological feature extraction. Carotid artery proven intima-media thickness (cIMT) biomarker is adapted as a gold standard during the training phase of the machine learning system. For the performance evaluation, K-fold cross validation protocol is adapted with 20 trials per fold. For choosing the dominant features out of the 56 grayscale features, a polling strategy of PCA is adapted where the original value of the features is unaltered. Different protocols are designed for establishing the stability and reliability criteria of the coronary risk assessment system (cRAS). Using the PCA-based machine learning paradigm and cross-validation protocol, a classification accuracy of 98.43% (AUC 0.98) with K=10 folds using an SVM radial basis function (RBF) kernel was achieved. A reliability index of 97.32% and machine learning stability criteria of 5% were met for the cRAS. This is the first Computer aided design (CADx) system of its kind that is able to demonstrate the ability of coronary risk assessment and stratification while demonstrating a successful design of the machine learning system based on our assumptions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

X-37 Storable Propulsion System Design and Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, Henry; Popp, Chris; Rehagen, Ronald J.

2005-01-01

In a response to NASA's X-37 TA-10 Cycle-1 contract, Boeing assessed nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4) and monomethyl hydrazine (MMH) Storable Propellant Propulsion Systems to select a low risk X-37 propulsion development approach. Space Shuttle lessons learned, planetary spacecraft, and Boeing Satellite HS-601 systems were reviewed to arrive at a low risk and reliable storable propulsion system. This paper describes the requirements, trade studies, design solutions, flight and ground operational issues which drove X-37 toward the selection of a storable propulsion system. The design of storable propulsion systems offers the leveraging of hardware experience that can accelerate progress toward critical design. It also involves the experience gained from launching systems using MMH and N2O4 propellants. Leveraging of previously flight-qualified hardware may offer economic benefits and may reduce risk in cost and schedule. This paper summarizes recommendations based on experience gained from Space Shuttle and similar propulsion systems utilizing MMH and N2O4 propellants. System design insights gained from flying storable propulsion are presented and addressed in the context of the design approach of the X-37 propulsion system.

X-37 Storable Propulsion System Design and Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, Henry; Popp, Chris; Rehegan, Ronald J.

2006-01-01

In a response to NASA's X-37 TA-10 Cycle-1 contract, Boeing assessed nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4) and monomethyl hydrazine (MMH) Storable Propellant Propulsion Systems to select a low risk X-37 propulsion development approach. Space Shuttle lessons learned, planetary spacecraft, and Boeing Satellite HS-601 systems were reviewed to arrive at a low risk and reliable storable propulsion system. This paper describes the requirements, trade studies, design solutions, flight and ground operational issues which drove X-37 toward the selection of a storable propulsion system. The design of storable propulsion systems offers the leveraging of hardware experience that can accelerate progress toward critical design. It also involves the experience gained from launching systems using MMH and N2O4 propellants. Leveraging of previously flight-qualified hardware may offer economic benefits and may reduce risk in cost and schedule. This paper summarizes recommendations based on experience gained from Space Shuttle and similar propulsion systems utilizing MMH and N2O4 propellants. System design insights gained from flying storable propulsion are presented and addressed in the context of the design approach of the X-37 propulsion system.

The HIV Risk Profiles of Latino Sexual Minorities and Transgender Persons Who Use Websites or Apps Designed for Social and Sexual Networking

PubMed Central

Sun, Christina J.; Reboussin, Beth A.; Mann, Lilli; Garcia, Manuel; Rhodes, Scott D.

2018-01-01

The use of websites and GPS-based mobile applications (“apps”) designed for social and sexual networking has been associated with increased HIV risk; however, little is known about Latino sexual minorities’ and transgender persons’ use of these websites and apps and the risk profiles of those who use them compared with those who do not. Data from 167 participants who completed the baseline survey of a community-level HIV prevention intervention, which harnesses the social networks of Latino sexual minorities and transgender persons, were analyzed. One quarter of participants (28.74%, n = 48) reported using websites or apps designed for social and sexual networking, and 119 (71.26%) reported not using websites or apps designed for social and sexual networking. Those who used websites or apps were younger and reported more male sex partners, a sexually transmitted disease diagnosis, and illicit drug use other than marijuana. HIV prevention interventions for those who use websites or apps should consider addressing these risks for HIV. PMID:26272786

The HIV Risk Profiles of Latino Sexual Minorities and Transgender Persons Who Use Websites or Apps Designed for Social and Sexual Networking.

PubMed

Sun, Christina J; Reboussin, Beth; Mann, Lilli; Garcia, Manuel; Rhodes, Scott D

2016-02-01

The use of websites and GPS-based mobile applications ("apps") designed for social and sexual networking has been associated with increased HIV risk; however, little is known about Latino sexual minorities' and transgender persons' use of these websites and apps and the risk profiles of those who use them compared with those who do not. Data from 167 participants who completed the baseline survey of a community-level HIV prevention intervention, which harnesses the social networks of Latino sexual minorities and transgender persons, were analyzed. One quarter of participants (28.74%, n = 48) reported using websites or apps designed for social and sexual networking, and 119 (71.26%) reported not using websites or apps designed for social and sexual networking. Those who used websites or apps were younger and reported more male sex partners, a sexually transmitted disease diagnosis, and illicit drug use other than marijuana. HIV prevention interventions for those who use websites or apps should consider addressing these risks for HIV. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.

Obstetric simulation as a risk control strategy: course design and evaluation.

PubMed

Gardner, Roxane; Walzer, Toni B; Simon, Robert; Raemer, Daniel B

2008-01-01

Patient safety initiatives aimed at reducing medical errors and adverse events are being implemented in Obstetrics. The Controlled Risk Insurance Company (CRICO), Risk Management Foundation (RMF) of the Harvard Medical Institutions pursued simulation as an anesthesia risk control strategy. Encouraged by their success, CRICO/RMF promoted simulation-based team training as a risk control strategy for obstetrical providers. We describe the development, implementation, and evaluation of an obstetric simulation-based team training course grounded in crisis resource management (CRM) principles. We pursued systematic design of course development, implementation, and evaluation in 3 phases, including a 1-year or more posttraining follow-up with self-assessment questionnaires. The course was highly rated overall by participants immediately after the course and 1-year or more after the course. Most survey responders reported having experienced a critical clinical event since the course and that various aspects of their teamwork had significantly or somewhat improved as a result of the course. Most (86%) reported CRM principles as useful for obstetric faculty and most (59%) recommended repeating the simulation course every 2 years. A simulation-based team-training course for obstetric clinicians was developed and is a central component of CRICO/RMF's obstetric risk management incentive program that provides a 10% reduction in annual obstetrical malpractice premiums. The course was highly regarded immediately and 1 year or more after completing the course. Most survey responders reported improved teamwork and communication in managing a critical obstetric event in the interval since taking the course. Simulation-based CRM training can serve as a strategy for mitigating adverse perinatal events.

The Role of the Omental Microenvironment in Ovarian Cancer Metastatic Colonization

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) through the joint sponsorship of the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP) and the American...Society for Investigative Pathology (ASIP). ASCP is accredited by the ACCME to provide continuing medical education for physicians. The ASCP designates this...cancer risk in high-risk women, 2) offer pharmacological-, nutritional -, and immunological-based risk reduction strategies coupled with biological

Impacts of Abstinence Education on Teen Sexual Activity, Risk of Pregnancy, and Risk of Sexually Transmitted Diseases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trenholm, Christopher; Devaney, Barbara; Fortson, Kenneth; Clark, Melissa; Bridgespan, Lisa Quay; Wheeler, Justin

2008-01-01

This paper examines the impacts of four abstinence-only education programs on adolescent sexual activity and risks of pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Based on an experimental design, the impact analysis uses survey data collected in 2005 and early 2006 from more than 2,000 teens who had been randomly assigned to either a…

Parents' Perceived Barriers to Healthful Eating and Physical Activity for Low-Income Adolescents Who Are at Risk for Type 2 Diabetes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Sharon L.; Bell, Toya Wilson; Hasin, Afroza

2009-01-01

Healthful eating and regular physical activity are vitally important for low-income adolescents who are at risk for developing type 2 diabetes (T2DM). To design a relevant, community-based intervention for these at risk adolescents, parent perceptions of barriers to healthful eating and physical activity should be assessed. Such barriers have been…

Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchbinder, Ben

1993-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vouk, Mladen A.; Mcallister, David F.

1992-01-01

Accomplishments in the following research areas are summarized: structure based testing, reliability growth, and design testability with risk evaluation; reliability growth models and software risk management; and evaluation of consensus voting, consensus recovery block, and acceptance voting. Four papers generated during the reporting period are included as appendices.

Effects of a school-based intensive intervention on systemic inflammation and disease risk in Mexican-American children

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Childhood obesity is associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 Diabetes mellitus. Systemic inflammation is thought to mediate this relationship. We have previously demonstrated that an intervention designed specifically for Mexican-American children that incorporates bo...

Iron metabolism in African American women in the second and third trimesters of high-risk pregnancies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Objective: To examine iron metabolism during the second and third trimesters in African American women with high-risk pregnancies. Design: Longitudinal pilot study. Setting: Large, university-based, urban Midwestern U.S. medical center. Participants: Convenience sample of 32 African American wome...

76 FR 72220 - Incorporation of Risk Management Concepts in Regulatory Programs

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-22

... and support the adoption of improved designs or processes. \\1\\ A deterministic approach to regulation... longstanding goal to move toward more risk-informed, performance- based approaches in its regulatory programs... regulatory approach that would continue to ensure the safe and secure use of nuclear material. As part of...

Child Maltreatment Risk Assessments: An Evaluation Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Righthand, Sue; Kerr, Bruce; Drach, Kerry

This book is a professional practice manual designed to assist clinicians in conducting forensic risk assessment in child maltreatment cases. The authors present up-to-date research findings and provide practical, fact-based information on key issues. The book serves as a reference source on procedural issues, treatment options, and risk…

Nanotoxicology and nanomedicine: making development decisions in an evolving governance environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rycroft, Taylor; Trump, Benjamin; Poinsatte-Jones, Kelsey; Linkov, Igor

2018-02-01

The fields of nanomedicine, risk analysis, and decision science have evolved considerably in the past decade, providing developers of nano-enabled therapies and diagnostic tools with more complete information than ever before and shifting a fundamental requisite of the nanomedical community from the need for more information about nanomaterials to the need for a streamlined method of integrating the abundance of nano-specific information into higher-certainty product design decisions. The crucial question facing nanomedicine developers that must select the optimal nanotechnology in a given situation has shifted from "how do we estimate nanomaterial risk in the absence of good risk data?" to "how can we derive a holistic characterization of the risks and benefits that a given nanomaterial may pose within a specific nanomedical application?" Many decision support frameworks have been proposed to assist with this inquiry; however, those based in multicriteria decision analysis have proven to be most adaptive in the rapidly evolving field of nanomedicine—from the early stages of the field when conditions of significant uncertainty and incomplete information dominated, to today when nanotoxicology and nano-environmental health and safety information is abundant but foundational paradigms such as chemical risk assessment, risk governance, life cycle assessment, safety-by-design, and stakeholder engagement are undergoing substantial reformation in an effort to address the needs of emerging technologies. In this paper, we reflect upon 10 years of developments in nanomedical engineering and demonstrate how the rich knowledgebase of nano-focused toxicological and risk assessment information developed over the last decade enhances the capability of multicriteria decision analysis approaches and underscores the need to continue the transition from traditional risk assessment towards risk-based decision-making and alternatives-based governance for emerging technologies.

A reliability and mass perspective of SP-100 Stirling cycle lunar-base powerplant designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomfield, Harvey S.

1991-01-01

The purpose was to obtain reliability and mass perspectives on selection of space power system conceptual designs based on SP-100 reactor and Stirling cycle power-generation subsystems. The approach taken was to: (1) develop a criterion for an acceptable overall reliability risk as a function of the expected range of emerging technology subsystem unit reliabilities; (2) conduct reliability and mass analyses for a diverse matrix of 800-kWe lunar-base design configurations employing single and multiple powerplants with both full and partial subsystem redundancy combinations; and (3) derive reliability and mass perspectives on selection of conceptual design configurations that meet an acceptable reliability criterion with the minimum system mass increase relative to reference powerplant design. The developed perspectives provided valuable insight into the considerations required to identify and characterize high-reliability and low-mass lunar-base powerplant conceptual design.

LIFE CYCLE DESIGN GUIDANCE MANUAL: ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS AND THE PRODUCT SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

This document seeks to promote the reduction of environmental impacts and health risks through a systems approach to design. he approach is based on the product life cycle, which includes raw materials acquisition and processing, manufacturing, use/service, resource recovery, and...

LIFE CYCLE DESIGN GUIDANCE MANUAL - ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS AND THE PRODUCT SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

This document seeks to promote the reduction of environmental impacts and health risks through a systems approach to design. The approach is based on die product life cycle, which includes raw materials acquisition and processing, manufacturing, use/service, resource recovery, an...

Early Engagement of Safety and Mission Assurance Expertise Using Systems Engineering Tools: A Risk-Based Approach to Early Identification of Safety and Assurance Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Darpel, Scott; Beckman, Sean

2016-01-01

Decades of systems engineering practice have demonstrated that the earlier the identification of requirements occurs, the lower the chance that costly redesigns will needed later in the project life cycle. A better understanding of all requirements can also improve the likelihood of a design's success. Significant effort has been put into developing tools and practices that facilitate requirements determination, including those that are part of the model-based systems engineering (MBSE) paradigm. These efforts have yielded improvements in requirements definition, but have thus far focused on a design's performance needs. The identification of safety & mission assurance (S&MA) related requirements, in comparison, can occur after preliminary designs are already established, yielding forced redesigns. Engaging S&MA expertise at an earlier stage, facilitated by the use of MBSE tools, and focused on actual project risk, can yield the same type of design life cycle improvements that have been realized in technical and performance requirements.

AN OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR AIRPORT CONCRETE PAVEMENT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimomura, Taizo; Fujimori, Yuji; Kaito, Kiyoyuki; Obama, Kengo; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi

In this paper, an optimal management model is formulated for the performance-based rehabilitation/maintenance contract for airport concrete pavement, whereby two types of life cycle cost risks, i.e., ground consolidation risk and concrete depreciation risk, are explicitly considered. The non-homogenous Markov chain model is formulated to represent the deterioration processes of concrete pavement which are conditional upon the ground consolidation processes. The optimal non-homogenous Markov decision model with multiple types of risk is presented to design the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans. And the methodology to revise the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans based upon the monitoring data by the Bayesian up-to-dating rules. The validity of the methodology presented in this paper is examined based upon the case studies carried out for the H airport.

Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

Towards responsible system development in health services: a discourse analysis study of design conflict resolution tactics.

PubMed

Irestig, Magnus; Timpka, Toomas

2010-02-01

We set out to examine design conflict resolution tactics used in development of large information systems for health services and to outline the design consequences for these tactics. Discourse analysis methods were applied to data collected from meetings conducted during the development of a web-based system in a public health context. We found that low risk tactics were characterized by design issues being managed within the formal mandate and competences of the design group. In comparison, high risk tactics were associated with irresponsible compromises, i.e. decisions being passed on to others or to later phases of the design process. The consequence of this collective disregard of issues such as responsibility and legitimacy is that the system design will be impossible to implement in factual health service contexts. The results imply that downstream responsibility issues have to be continuously dealt with in system development in health services.

Mapping groundwater contamination risk of multiple aquifers using multi-model ensemble of machine learning algorithms.

PubMed

Barzegar, Rahim; Moghaddam, Asghar Asghari; Deo, Ravinesh; Fijani, Elham; Tziritis, Evangelos

2018-04-15

Constructing accurate and reliable groundwater risk maps provide scientifically prudent and strategic measures for the protection and management of groundwater. The objectives of this paper are to design and validate machine learning based-risk maps using ensemble-based modelling with an integrative approach. We employ the extreme learning machines (ELM), multivariate regression splines (MARS), M5 Tree and support vector regression (SVR) applied in multiple aquifer systems (e.g. unconfined, semi-confined and confined) in the Marand plain, North West Iran, to encapsulate the merits of individual learning algorithms in a final committee-based ANN model. The DRASTIC Vulnerability Index (VI) ranged from 56.7 to 128.1, categorized with no risk, low and moderate vulnerability thresholds. The correlation coefficient (r) and Willmott's Index (d) between NO 3 concentrations and VI were 0.64 and 0.314, respectively. To introduce improvements in the original DRASTIC method, the vulnerability indices were adjusted by NO 3 concentrations, termed as the groundwater contamination risk (GCR). Seven DRASTIC parameters utilized as the model inputs and GCR values utilized as the outputs of individual machine learning models were served in the fully optimized committee-based ANN-predictive model. The correlation indicators demonstrated that the ELM and SVR models outperformed the MARS and M5 Tree models, by virtue of a larger d and r value. Subsequently, the r and d metrics for the ANN-committee based multi-model in the testing phase were 0.8889 and 0.7913, respectively; revealing the superiority of the integrated (or ensemble) machine learning models when compared with the original DRASTIC approach. The newly designed multi-model ensemble-based approach can be considered as a pragmatic step for mapping groundwater contamination risks of multiple aquifer systems with multi-model techniques, yielding the high accuracy of the ANN committee-based model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SSRIs and risk of suicide attempts in young people - A Danish observational register-based historical cohort study, using propensity score.

PubMed

Christiansen, Erik; Agerbo, Esben; Bilenberg, Niels; Stenager, Elsebeth

2016-01-01

SSRIs are widely used in the treatment of mental illness for both children and adults. Studies have found a slightly increased risk of suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts in young people using SSRIs but SSRIs' impact on risk for suicides in youth is not well-established. Is there indication that SSRIs might raise risk for suicide attempts in young people? We used an observational register-based historical cohort design, a large cohort of all Danish individuals born in 1983-1989 (n = 392,458) and a propensity score approach to analyse the impact from SSRIs on risk for suicide attempts. Every suicide attempt and redeemed prescription of SSRIs was analysed by Cox regression. We found a significant overlap between redeeming a prescription on SSRIs and subsequent suicide attempt. The risk for suicide attempt was highest in the first 3 months after redeeming the first prescription. The hazard ratio for suicide attempts after redeeming a prescription was estimated to 5.23, 95% CI 4.82-5.68. We conclude that the risk of suicide attempt is higher for young people in the first months after redeeming their first prescription for SSRIs, compared to non-users. For SSRI users with lower propensity score (fewer risk factors for SSRIs) the risk of suicide attempt is estimated to be highest. Although the design may miss some explicit reason for prescription of SSRIs and SSRIs might be a marker for those in high risk rather than a causal risk factor, we would recommend systematic risk assessment in the period after redeeming the first prescription.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

2009-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dichmann, Donald

2016-01-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

Guidelines for Risk-Based Changeover of Biopharma Multi-Product Facilities.

PubMed

Lynch, Rob; Barabani, David; Bellorado, Kathy; Canisius, Peter; Heathcote, Doug; Johnson, Alan; Wyman, Ned; Parry, Derek Willison

2018-01-01

In multi-product biopharma facilities, the protection from product contamination due to the manufacture of multiple products simultaneously is paramount to assure product quality. To that end, the use of traditional changeover methods (elastomer change-out, full sampling, etc.) have been widely used within the industry and have been accepted by regulatory agencies. However, with the endorsement of Quality Risk Management (1), the use of risk-based approaches may be applied to assess and continuously improve established changeover processes. All processes, including changeover, can be improved with investment (money/resources), parallel activities, equipment design improvements, and standardization. However, processes can also be improved by eliminating waste. For product changeover, waste is any activity not needed for the new process or that does not provide added assurance of the quality of the subsequent product. The application of a risk-based approach to changeover aligns with the principles of Quality Risk Management. Through the use of risk assessments, the appropriate changeover controls can be identified and controlled to assure product quality is maintained. Likewise, the use of risk assessments and risk-based approaches may be used to improve operational efficiency, reduce waste, and permit concurrent manufacturing of products. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Pharmaceutical product development: A quality by design approach

PubMed Central

Pramod, Kannissery; Tahir, M. Abu; Charoo, Naseem A.; Ansari, Shahid H.; Ali, Javed

2016-01-01

The application of quality by design (QbD) in pharmaceutical product development is now a thrust area for the regulatory authorities and the pharmaceutical industry. International Conference on Harmonization and United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) emphasized the principles and applications of QbD in pharmaceutical development in their guidance for the industry. QbD attributes are addressed in question-based review, developed by USFDA for chemistry, manufacturing, and controls section of abbreviated new drug applications. QbD principles, when implemented, lead to a successful product development, subsequent prompt regulatory approval, reduce exhaustive validation burden, and significantly reduce post-approval changes. The key elements of QbD viz., target product quality profile, critical quality attributes, risk assessments, design space, control strategy, product lifecycle management, and continual improvement are discussed to understand the performance of dosage forms within design space. Design of experiments, risk assessment tools, and process analytical technology are also discussed for their role in QbD. This review underlines the importance of QbD in inculcating science-based approach in pharmaceutical product development. PMID:27606256

Pharmaceutical product development: A quality by design approach.

PubMed

Pramod, Kannissery; Tahir, M Abu; Charoo, Naseem A; Ansari, Shahid H; Ali, Javed

2016-01-01

The application of quality by design (QbD) in pharmaceutical product development is now a thrust area for the regulatory authorities and the pharmaceutical industry. International Conference on Harmonization and United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) emphasized the principles and applications of QbD in pharmaceutical development in their guidance for the industry. QbD attributes are addressed in question-based review, developed by USFDA for chemistry, manufacturing, and controls section of abbreviated new drug applications. QbD principles, when implemented, lead to a successful product development, subsequent prompt regulatory approval, reduce exhaustive validation burden, and significantly reduce post-approval changes. The key elements of QbD viz., target product quality profile, critical quality attributes, risk assessments, design space, control strategy, product lifecycle management, and continual improvement are discussed to understand the performance of dosage forms within design space. Design of experiments, risk assessment tools, and process analytical technology are also discussed for their role in QbD. This review underlines the importance of QbD in inculcating science-based approach in pharmaceutical product development.

A worksite intervention to reduce the cardiovascular risk: proposal of a study design easy to integrate within Italian organization of occupational health surveillance.

PubMed

Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Marangi, Gianluca; Bontadi, Danilo; Fadda, Emanuela; Cegolon, Luca; Bortolotto, Melania; Fedeli, Ugo; Marchiori, Luciano

2015-01-21

Despite the substantial amount of knowledge on effectiveness of worksite health promotion (WHP) in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, WHP programs are not systematically applied in Italy. The aim was to design an intervention easy to integrate within the Italian organization of workplace health surveillance. We used the "pretest-posttest design". Workers were employed in multiple occupations and resident in Veneto region, Italy. Occupational physicians (OPs) performed all examinations, including laboratory evaluation (capillary blood sampling and measure of glycaemia and cholesterolemia with portable devices), during the normal health surveillance at worksite. CVD risk was computed based on sex, age, smoking habit, diabetes, systolic pressure and cholesterol level. After excluding those with <40 years of age, missing consent, CVD diagnosis or current therapy for CVD, missing information, CVD risk <5%, out of 5,536 workers 451 underwent the intervention and 323 male workers were re-examined at 1 year. CVD risk was the most compelling argument for changing lifestyle. The counseling was based on the individual risk factors. Individuals examined at posttest were a small fraction of the whole (6% = 323/5,536). In these workers we computed the ratio pretest/posttest of proportions (such as percent of subjects with cardiovascular risk >5%) as well as the exact McNemar significance probability or the exact test of table symmetry. CVD risk decreased by 24% (McNemar p = 0.0000) after the intervention; in a sensitivity analysis assuming that all subjects lost to follow-up kept their pretest cardiovascular risk value, the effect (-18%) was still significant (symmetry p < 0.0000). Each prevented CVD case was expected to cost about 5,700 euro. The present worksite intervention promoted favorable changes of CVD risk that were reasonably priced and consistent across multiple occupations.

High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) System Risk-Based Inspection Guide for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, S.; DiBiasio, A.; Gunther, W.

1993-09-01

The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A System Risk-Based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2 and 3. The role of. the HPCI system in mitigating accidents is discussed in this S-RIG, along with insights on identified risk-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG provides a review of industry-wide operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples to augment the PRA and operational considerations in identifying a catalogue of basic PRA failuremore » modes for the HPCI system. It is designed to be used as a reference for routine inspections, self-initiated safety system functional inspections (SSFIs), and the evaluation of risk significance of component failures at the nuclear power plant.« less

Can new passenger cars reduce pedestrian lower extremity injury? A review of geometrical changes of front-end design before and after regulatory efforts.

PubMed

Nie, Bingbing; Zhou, Qing

2016-10-02

Pedestrian lower extremity represents the most frequently injured body region in car-to-pedestrian accidents. The European Directive concerning pedestrian safety was established in 2003 for evaluating pedestrian protection performance of car models. However, design changes have not been quantified since then. The goal of this study was to investigate front-end profiles of representative passenger car models and the potential influence on pedestrian lower extremity injury risk. The front-end styling of sedans and sport utility vehicles (SUV) released from 2008 to 2011 was characterized by the geometrical parameters related to pedestrian safety and compared to representative car models before 2003. The influence of geometrical design change on the resultant risk of injury to pedestrian lower extremity-that is, knee ligament rupture and long bone fracture-was estimated by a previously developed assessment tool assuming identical structural stiffness. Based on response surface generated from simulation results of a human body model (HBM), the tool provided kinematic and kinetic responses of pedestrian lower extremity resulted from a given car's front-end design. Newer passenger cars exhibited a "flatter" front-end design. The median value of the sedan models provided 87.5 mm less bottom depth, and the SUV models exhibited 94.7 mm less bottom depth. In the lateral impact configuration similar to that in the regulatory test methods, these geometrical changes tend to reduce the injury risk of human knee ligament rupture by 36.6 and 39.6% based on computational approximation. The geometrical changes did not significantly influence the long bone fracture risk. The present study reviewed the geometrical changes in car front-ends along with regulatory concerns regarding pedestrian safety. A preliminary quantitative benefit of the lower extremity injury reduction was estimated based on these geometrical features. Further investigation is recommended on the structural changes and inclusion of more accident scenarios.

A Non-Stationary Approach for Estimating Future Hydroclimatic Extremes Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.

2017-12-01

There is substantial evidence that observed hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, extreme stormwater events, and low flows) are changing and that climate change will continue to alter the probability distributions of hydrologic extremes over time. These non-stationary risks imply that conventional approaches for designing hydrologic infrastructure (or making other climate-sensitive decisions) based on retrospective analysis and stationary statistics will become increasingly problematic through time. To develop a framework for assessing risks in a non-stationary environment our study develops a new approach using a super ensemble of simulated hydrologic extremes based on Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Specifically, using statistically downscaled future GCM projections from the CMIP5 archive (using the Hybrid Delta (HD) method), we extract daily precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at 1/16 degree resolution based on a group of moving 30-yr windows within a given design lifespan (e.g. 10, 25, 50-yr). Using these T and P scenarios we simulate daily streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for each year of the design lifespan and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution to the simulated annual extremes. MC experiments are then used to construct a random series of 10,000 realizations of the design lifespan, estimating annual extremes using the estimated unique GEV parameters for each individual year of the design lifespan. Our preliminary results for two watersheds in Midwest show that there are considerable differences in the extreme values for a given percentile between conventional MC and non-stationary MC approach. Design standards based on our non-stationary approach are also directly dependent on the design lifespan of infrastructure, a sensitivity which is notably absent from conventional approaches based on retrospective analysis. The experimental approach can be applied to a wide range of hydroclimatic variables of interest.

Privacy-Preserving Location-Based Services

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Chi Yin

2010-01-01

Location-based services (LBS for short) providers require users' current locations to answer their location-based queries, e.g., range and nearest-neighbor queries. Revealing personal location information to potentially untrusted service providers could create privacy risks for users. To this end, our objective is to design a privacy-preserving…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Yang, Ji Wu

Failures in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system of pressurized water reactors (PWRs) are considered to involve substantial risk whether a decision is made to either continue power operation while repair is being done, or to shut down the plant to undertake repairs. Technical specification action requirements usually require immediate plant shutdown in the case of multiple failures in the system (in some cases, immediate repair of one train is required when all AFW trains fail). This paper presents a probabilistic risk assessment-based method to quantitatively evaluate and compare both the risks of continued power operation and of shutting the plantmore » down, given known failures in the system. The method is applied to the AFW system for four different PWRs. Results show that the risk of continued power operation and plant shutdown both are substantial, but the latter is larger than the former over the usual repair time. This was proven for four plants with different designs: two operating Westinghouse plants, one operating Asea-Brown Boveri Combustion Engineering Plant, and one of evolutionary design. The method can be used to analyze individual plant design and to improve AFW action requirements using risk-informed evaluations.« less

System reliability analysis of granular filter for protection against piping in dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, A.; Sivakumar Babu, G. L.

2015-09-01

Granular filters are provided for the safety of water retaining structure for protection against piping failure. The phenomenon of piping triggers when the base soil to be protected starts migrating in the direction of seepage flow under the influence of seepage force. To protect base soil from migration, the voids in the filter media should be small enough but it should not also be too small to block smooth passage of seeping water. Fulfilling these two contradictory design requirements at the same time is a major concern for the successful performance of granular filter media. Since Terzaghi era, conventionally, particle size distribution (PSD) of granular filters is designed based on particle size distribution characteristics of the base soil to be protected. The design approach provides a range of D15f value in which the PSD of granular filter media should fall and there exist infinite possibilities. Further, safety against the two critical design requirements cannot be ensured. Although used successfully for many decades, the existing filter design guidelines are purely empirical in nature accompanied with experience and good engineering judgment. In the present study, analytical solutions for obtaining the factor of safety with respect to base soil particle migration and soil permeability consideration as proposed by the authors are first discussed. The solution takes into consideration the basic geotechnical properties of base soil and filter media as well as existing hydraulic conditions and provides a comprehensive solution to the granular filter design with ability to assess the stability in terms of factor of safety. Considering the fact that geotechnical properties are variable in nature, probabilistic analysis is further suggested to evaluate the system reliability of the filter media that may help in risk assessment and risk management for decision making.

Epidemiological performance and subsequent costs of different surveillance strategies to control bovine herpesvirus type 1 in dairy farms.

PubMed

Veldhuis, Anouk; Santman-Berends, Inge; Schauer, Birgit; Mars, Jet; Waldeck, Frederik; Staubach, Christoph; van Schaik, Gerdien

2017-04-01

This study aimed at comparing the surveillance program of bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1) as laid down by EU Decision 2004/558/EC and 2007/584/EC ('conventional design') with an alternative design. The alternative design was based on monthly bulk-milk testing, clinical surveillance and a risk-based component that involves testing of animals that are purchased from non-free cattle herds. Scenario-tree analyses were carried out to determine sensitivities of the surveillance system (and its components) and the monthly confidence of freedom on herd-level. Also, the expected costs per surveillance design and components thereof were calculated. Results showed that the conventional (EU) and alternative surveillance designs to obtain a BHV1-free status performed equally well in terms of sensitivity. However, total costs per cattle herd to obtain a free status were highest in the conventional design. In an endemic situation and with a within-herd design prevalence of 10%, the conventional design led to a varying probability of freedom ranging from 99.6% to 100% per month. With the alternative design, in this situation, a constant probability of freedom of >99.9% per month was found. In a disease-free situation, both designs performed equally well (probability of freedom >99.9% per month). The yearly costs per farm for monitoring the disease-free status decreased by approximately 25% in the alternative design. The alternative strategy based on monthly bulk-milk monitoring therefore was deemed most cost-effective. This study showed that the surveillance regime to attain and maintain a BHV1-free status as described by EU-legislation can be improved to reduce the monitoring costs without reduction of the system's sensitivity, given a within-herd design prevalence of 10%. The assessment of various surveillance designs could be highly useful to support decision-making towards a more risk-based approach of animal health surveillance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Small numbers, disclosure risk, security, and reliability issues in Web-based data query systems.

PubMed

Rudolph, Barbara A; Shah, Gulzar H; Love, Denise

2006-01-01

This article describes the process for developing consensus guidelines and tools for releasing public health data via the Web and highlights approaches leading agencies have taken to balance disclosure risk with public dissemination of reliable health statistics. An agency's choice of statistical methods for improving the reliability of released data for Web-based query systems is based upon a number of factors, including query system design (dynamic analysis vs preaggregated data and tables), population size, cell size, data use, and how data will be supplied to users. The article also describes those efforts that are necessary to reduce the risk of disclosure of an individual's protected health information.

Risk-based methods for fish and terrestrial animal disease surveillance.

PubMed

Oidtmann, Birgit; Peeler, Edmund; Lyngstad, Trude; Brun, Edgar; Bang Jensen, Britt; Stärk, Katharina D C

2013-10-01

Over recent years there have been considerable methodological developments in the field of animal disease surveillance. The principles of risk analysis were conceptually applied to surveillance in order to further develop approaches and tools (scenario tree modelling) to design risk-based surveillance (RBS) programmes. In the terrestrial animal context, examples of risk-based surveillance have demonstrated the substantial potential for cost saving, and a similar benefit is expected also for aquatic animals. RBS approaches are currently largely absent for aquatic animal diseases. A major constraint in developing RBS designs in the aquatic context is the lack of published data to assist in the design of RBS: this applies to data on (i) the relative risk of farm sites becoming infected due to the presence or absence of a given risk factor; (ii) the sensitivity of diagnostic tests (specificity is often addressed by follow-up investigation and re-testing and therefore less of a concern); (iii) data on the variability of prevalence of infection for fish within a holding unit, between holding units and at farm level. Another constraint is that some of the most basic data for planning surveillance are missing, e.g. data on farm location and animal movements. In Europe, registration or authorisation of fish farms has only recently become a requirement under EU Directive 2006/88. Additionally, the definition of the epidemiological unit (at site or area level) in the context of aquaculture is a challenge due to the often high level of connectedness (mainly via water) of aquaculture facilities with the aquatic environment. This paper provides a review of the principles, methods and examples of RBS in terrestrial, farmed and wild animals. It discusses the special challenges associated with surveillance for aquatic animal diseases (e.g. accessibility of animals for inspection and sampling, complexity of rearing systems) and provides an overview of current developments relevant for the design of RBS for fish diseases. Suggestions are provided on how the current constraints to applying RBS to fish diseases can be overcome. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social network recruitment for Yo Puedo - an innovative sexual health intervention in an underserved urban neighborhood: sample and design implications

PubMed Central

Minnis, Alexandra M.; vanDommelen-Gonzalez, Evan; Luecke, Ellen; Cheng, Helen; Dow, William; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Padian, Nancy S.

2016-01-01

Most existing evidence-based sexual health interventions focus on individual-level behavior, even though there is substantial evidence that highlights the influential role of social environments in shaping adolescents’ behaviors and reproductive health outcomes. We developed Yo Puedo, a combined conditional cash transfer (CCT) and life skills intervention for youth to promote educational attainment, job training, and reproductive health wellness that we then evaluated for feasibility among 162 youth aged 16–21 years in a predominantly Latino community in San Francisco, CA. The intervention targeted youth’s social networks and involved recruitment and randomization of small social network clusters. In this paper we describe the design of the feasibility study and report participants’ baseline characteristics. Furthermore, we examined the sample and design implications of recruiting social network clusters as the unit of randomization. Baseline data provide evidence that we successfully enrolled high risk youth using a social network recruitment approach in community and school-based settings. Nearly all participants (95%) were high risk for adverse educational and reproductive health outcomes based on multiple measures of low socioeconomic status (81%) and/or reported high risk behaviors (e.g., gang affiliation, past pregnancy, recent unprotected sex, frequent substance use) (62%). We achieved variability in the study sample through heterogeneity in recruitment of the index participants, whereas the individuals within the small social networks of close friends demonstrated substantial homogeneity across sociodemographic and risk profile characteristics. Social networks recruitment was feasible and yielded a sample of high risk youth willing to enroll in a randomized study to evaluate a novel sexual health intervention. PMID:25358834

Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Stuart G.

2013-05-01

Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

Evaluation of Spacecraft Shielding Effectiveness for Radiation Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.

1999-01-01

The potential for serious health risks from solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) is a critical issue in the NASA strategic plan for the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS). The excess cost to protect against the GCR and SPE due to current uncertainties in radiation transmission properties and cancer biology could be exceedingly large based on the excess launch costs to shield against uncertainties. The development of advanced shielding concepts is an important risk mitigation area with the potential to significantly reduce risk below conventional mission designs. A key issue in spacecraft material selection is the understanding of nuclear reactions on the transmission properties of materials. High-energy nuclear particles undergo nuclear reactions in passing through materials and tissue altering their composition and producing new radiation types. Spacecraft and planetary habitat designers can utilize radiation transport codes to identify optimal materials for lowering exposures and to optimize spacecraft design to reduce astronaut exposures. To reach these objectives will require providing design engineers with accurate data bases and computationally efficient software for describing the transmission properties of space radiation in materials. Our program will reduce the uncertainty in the transmission properties of space radiation by improving the theoretical description of nuclear reactions and radiation transport, and provide accurate physical descriptions of the track structure of microscopic energy deposition.

Risk perception in consumer product use.

PubMed

Weegels, M F; Kanis, H

2000-05-01

In the literature, at least two distinct connotations of risk can be found: so called objective risk, defined as the ratio of a particular number of accidents and a measure of exposure, and subjective risk, defined as the perception and awareness of risks by the person(s) involved. This article explores the significance of risk perception and awareness in understanding and clarifying how and why accidents involving consumer products occur. Based on empirical evidence from video-recorded reconstructions of accidents with consumer products, the risk perception and awareness of users in relation to featural and functional product characteristics, and their influence on actual product use culminating in an accident, is addressed. In contrast with what is usually assumed in the literature, the findings show that the majority of the subjects had no idea that they were running any risk of injuring themselves while they operated the product. In several accidents, the product either offered functionalities not anticipated in the design or did not adequately reflect its condition. The implications of the findings for design practice as well as for risk research are discussed.

[Child endangerment: a research update regarding etiology, consequences, diagnostics, and intervention].

PubMed

Kindler, Heinz

2009-01-01

In Germany child protection law is governed by the term "child endangerment". Based on a definition of that term recent research on child maltreatment is reviewed. Regarding etiology the need to go beyond risk factors and to consider risk mechanisms is highlighted. The discussion on the impact of child maltreatment focuses on the often underestimated effects of early neglect. After a review of progresses regarding the evaluation of maltreated children and the assessment of risk based on a systematic literature review suggestions for design of effective family interventions after abuse or neglect are made.

Adaptive sampling in research on risk-related behaviors.

PubMed

Thompson, Steven K; Collins, Linda M

2002-11-01

This article introduces adaptive sampling designs to substance use researchers. Adaptive sampling is particularly useful when the population of interest is rare, unevenly distributed, hidden, or hard to reach. Examples of such populations are injection drug users, individuals at high risk for HIV/AIDS, and young adolescents who are nicotine dependent. In conventional sampling, the sampling design is based entirely on a priori information, and is fixed before the study begins. By contrast, in adaptive sampling, the sampling design adapts based on observations made during the survey; for example, drug users may be asked to refer other drug users to the researcher. In the present article several adaptive sampling designs are discussed. Link-tracing designs such as snowball sampling, random walk methods, and network sampling are described, along with adaptive allocation and adaptive cluster sampling. It is stressed that special estimation procedures taking the sampling design into account are needed when adaptive sampling has been used. These procedures yield estimates that are considerably better than conventional estimates. For rare and clustered populations adaptive designs can give substantial gains in efficiency over conventional designs, and for hidden populations link-tracing and other adaptive procedures may provide the only practical way to obtain a sample large enough for the study objectives.

The effects of message framing and risk perceptions for HPV vaccine campaigns: focus on the role of regulatory fit.

PubMed

Park, Sun-Young

2012-01-01

This study investigates the effects of framing and risk perception, and their interaction effects on human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Based on a 2 (message frames) × 2 (perceived risk) experimental design, the interaction effects reveal the effectiveness of loss- (vs. gain-) framed messages would be maximized for high (vs. low) perceived risk condition. Based on regulatory fit principles the synergy effects are shown in terms of attitudes toward advertising and HPV vaccination, HPV vaccination intention, and ad-promoted behavioral intention. The findings indicate right message appeals should be selected for the right target audiences in the setting of HPV vaccine promotions.

The Toxic Truth About Carbon Nanotubes in Water Purification: a Perspective View.

PubMed

Das, Rasel; Leo, Bey Fen; Murphy, Finbarr

2018-06-18

Without nanosafety guidelines, the long-term sustainability of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) for water purifications is questionable. Current risk measurements of CNTs are overshadowed by uncertainties. New risks associated with CNTs are evolving through different waste water purification routes, and there are knowledge gaps in the risk assessment of CNTs based on their physical properties. Although scientific efforts to design risk estimates are evolving, there remains a paucity of knowledge on the unknown health risks of CNTs. The absence of universal CNT safety guidelines is a specific hindrance. In this paper, we close these gaps and suggested several new risk analysis roots and framework extrapolations from CNT-based water purification technologies. We propose a CNT safety clock that will help assess risk appraisal and management. We suggest that this could form the basis of an acceptable CNT safety guideline. We pay particular emphasis on measuring risks based on CNT physico-chemical properties such as diameter, length, aspect ratio, type, charge, hydrophobicity, functionalities and so on which determine CNT behaviour in waste water treatment plants and subsequent release into the environment.

Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models to Quantify the Impact of Human Age and Interindividual Differences in Physiology and Biochemistry Pertinent to Risk Final Report for Cooperative Agreement. This report describes and demonstrates techniques necessary to extrapolate and incorporate in vitro derived metabolic rate constants in PBPK models. It also includes two case study examples designed to demonstrate the applicability of such data for health risk assessment and addresses the quantification, extrapolation and interpretation of advanced biochemical information on human interindividual variability of chemical metabolism for risk assessment application. It comprises five chapters; topics and results covered in the first four chapters have been published in the peer reviewed scientific literature. Topics covered include: Data Quality ObjectivesExperimental FrameworkRequired DataTwo example case studies that develop and incorporate in vitro metabolic rate constants in PBPK models designed to quantify human interindividual variability to better direct the choice of uncertainty factors for health risk assessment. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for risk assors to use when quantifying, extrapolating, and interpretating advanced biochemical information about human interindividual variability of chemical metabolism.

Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

2014-01-01

A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

Kā-HOLO Project: a protocol for a randomized controlled trial of a native cultural dance program for cardiovascular disease prevention in Native Hawaiians.

PubMed

Kaholokula, Joseph Keawe'aimoku; Look, Mele A; Wills, Thomas A; de Silva, Māpuana; Mabellos, Tricia; Seto, Todd B; Ahn, Hyeong Jun; Sinclair, Ka'imi A; Buchwald, Dedra

2017-04-17

As a major risk factor for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease (CVD), hypertension affects 33% of U.S. adults. Relative to other US races and ethnicities, Native Hawaiians have a high prevalence of hypertension and are 3 to 4 times more likely to have CVD. Effective, culturally-relevant interventions are needed to address CVD risk in this population. Investigators of the Kā-HOLO Project developed a study design to test the efficacy of an intervention that uses hula, a traditional Hawaiian dance, to increase physical activity and reduce CVD risk. A 2-arm randomized controlled trial with a wait-list control design will be implemented to test a 6-month intervention based on hula to manage blood pressure and reduce CVD risk in 250 adult Native Hawaiians with diagnosed hypertension. Half of the sample will be randomized to each arm, stratified across multiple study sites. Primary outcomes are reduction in systolic blood pressure and improvement in CVD risk as measured by the Framingham Risk Score. Other psychosocial and sociocultural measures will be included to determine mediators of intervention effects on primary outcomes. Assessments will be conducted at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months for all participants, and at 12 months for intervention participants only. This trial will elucidate the efficacy of a novel hypertension management program designed to reduce CVD risk in an indigenous population by using a cultural dance form as its physical activity component. The results of this culturally-based intervention will have implications for other indigenous populations globally and will offer a sustainable, culturally-relevant means of addressing CVD disparities. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02620709 , registration date November 23, 2015.

Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

2018-01-01

We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best available science.

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

Risk analysis and its link with standards of the World Organisation for Animal Health.

PubMed

Sugiura, K; Murray, N

2011-04-01

Among the agreements included in the treaty that created the World Trade Organization (WTO) in January 1995 is the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) that sets out the basic rules for food safety and animal and plant health standards. The SPS Agreement designates the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) as the organisation responsible for developing international standards for animal health and zoonoses. The SPS Agreement requires that the sanitary measures that WTO members apply should be based on science and encourages them to either apply measures based on the OIE standards or, if they choose to adopt a higher level of protection than that provided by these standards, apply measures based on a science-based risk assessment. The OIE also provides a procedural framework for risk analysis for its Member Countries to use. Despite the inevitable challenges that arise in carrying out a risk analysis of the international trade in animals and animal products, the OIE risk analysis framework provides a structured approach that facilitates the identification, assessment, management and communication of these risks.

Impact of a Career Intervention on At-Risk Middle School Students' Career Maturity Levels, Academic Achievement, and Self-Esteem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Legum, Harry L.; Hoare, Carol H.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of a 9-week career intervention program on at-risk middle school students' career maturity levels, self-esteem, and academic achievement. This study was based on a pretest and posttest design using a control group. Data were collected from 27 at-risk middle school students representing the…

Armed To Learn: Aiming At California K 12 School Gun Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

involvement in, or presence of, any militia. In District of Columbia v. Heller in 2008, the Supreme Court changed the long-standing collective rights...research focused on decision-making processes that are based on risk management principles fostered by the Insurance Institute of America. Risk...Management, 3rd ed. (Malvern, PA: Insurance Institute of America, 2003), http://www.theinstitutes.org/guide/designations/associate-risk-management

Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellish, Jonathan A.

2016-01-01

We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

Moving towards Quality Programs. Defining Criteria for Quality Program Designs Based on Lessons from Research and Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curnan, Susan P.; Melchior, Alan

Research conducted during the Youth Research and Technical Assistance project established that the process of designing effective job training/employment programs for at-risk youth can be framed in terms of the following broad themes: focusing on youth as youth by developing program designs that are appropriate for their age and level of…

Exploring pig trade patterns to inform the design of risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies

PubMed Central

Guinat, C.; Relun, A.; Wall, B.; Morris, A.; Dixon, L.; Pfeiffer, D. U.

2016-01-01

An understanding of the patterns of animal contact networks provides essential information for the design of risk-based animal disease surveillance and control strategies. This study characterises pig movements throughout England and Wales between 2009 and 2013 with a view to characterising spatial and temporal patterns, network topology and trade communities. Data were extracted from the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)’s RADAR (Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal-related Risks) database, and analysed using descriptive and network approaches. A total of 61,937,855 pigs were moved through 872,493 movements of batches in England and Wales during the 5-year study period. Results show that the network exhibited scale-free and small-world topologies, indicating the potential for diseases to quickly spread within the pig industry. The findings also provide suggestions for how risk-based surveillance strategies could be optimised in the country by taking account of highly connected holdings, geographical regions and time periods with the greatest number of movements and pigs moved, as these are likely to be at higher risk for disease introduction. This study is also the first attempt to identify trade communities in the country, information which could be used to facilitate the pig trade and maintain disease-free status across the country in the event of an outbreak. PMID:27357836

An Evaluation of Performance-Based Tests Designed to Improve Naval Aviation Selection.

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

Qualification Test AQT/FAR 8z Flight Aptitude Rating 3 Complex Visual CVT Information Processing 3 Risk RISK 3 Absolute Difference ADHT & Horizontal...01329* .01852 1077 6 CVT .03752* .05064 557 3 ADHT .03432* .03289 499 8 RISK .03369* .05028 337 2 MB .01814 .02479 544 5 PMT/DLT .00987 .01037 641 7 *p...to differences in age, sex, accession source, college major, prior flight hours, or intelligence. From Table 2 we see that the CVT, ADHT , and the RISK

Safety assessment, detection and traceability, and societal aspects of genetically modified foods. European Network on Safety Assessment of Genetically Modified Food Crops (ENTRANSFOOD). Concluding remarks.

PubMed

Kuiper, H A; König, A; Kleter, G A; Hammes, W P; Knudsen, I

2004-07-01

The most important results from the EU-sponsored ENTRANSFOOD Thematic Network project are reviewed, including the design of a detailed step-wise procedure for the risk assessment of foods derived from genetically modified crops based on the latest scientific developments, evaluation of topical risk assessment issues, and the formulation of proposals for improved risk management and public involvement in the risk analysis process. Copyright 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

Time-based collision risk modeling for air traffic management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Alan E.

Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the risk of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this risk. The objective of any collision risk management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision risk management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the risk of collision. This research models that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision risk is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures regulating air traffic management methods and industry standards governing performance requirements for avionics designed to support trajectory based operations.

Groundwater contamination from waste management sites: The interaction between risk-based engineering design and regulatory policy: 2. Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massmann, Joel; Freeze, R. Allan

1987-02-01

The risk-cost-benefit analysis developed in the companion paper (J. Massmann and R. A. Freeze, this issue) is here applied to (1) an assessment of the relative worth of containment-construction activities, site-exploration activities, and monitoring activities as components of a design strategy for the owner/operator of a waste management facility; (2) an assessment of alternative policy options available to a regulatory agency; and (3) a case history. Sensitivity analyses designed to address the first issue show that the allocation of resources by the owner/operator is sensitive to the stochastic parameters used to describe the hydraulic conductivity field at a site. For the cases analyzed, the installation of a dense monitoring network is of less value to the owner/operator than a more conservative containment design. Sensitivity analyses designed to address the second issue suggest that from a regulatory perspective, design standards should be more effective than performance standards in reducing risk, and design specifications on the containment structure should be more effective than those on the monitoring network. Performance bonds posted before construction have a greater potential to influence design than prospective penalties to be imposed at the time of failure. Siting on low-conductivity deposits is a more effective method of risk reduction than any form of regulatory influence. Results of the case history indicate that the methodology can be successfully applied at field sites.

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, Jens-Uwe

2008-05-01

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies. Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.

Innovative Web-Based Professional Development for Teachers of At-Risk Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinzie, Mable B.; Whitaker, Stephen D.; Neesen, Kathy; Kelley, Michael; Matera, Michael; Pianta, Robert C.

2006-01-01

Research suggests the importance of professional development for teachers of at-risk children, and while educational technologies can be harnessed to help support teaching practice in innovative ways, such programs are often limited in scale. "My Teaching Partner (MTP)" was designed to deliver a targeted program of professional…

Mental Health and Students with Disabilities: A Review of Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMillan, Julie M.; Jarvis, Jane M.

2013-01-01

Students with disabilities are at increased risk of experiencing mental health difficulties, but may not be recognised as an at-risk population in the design of school-based prevention and intervention efforts. Understanding the link between disability and mental health is important for school psychologists and guidance counsellors, teachers, and…

Taking Risks with Their Hearts: Risk and Emotion in Innovative Forms of Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leiman, Tania; Abery, Elizabeth; Willis, Eileen M.

2015-01-01

Research involving student and tutor responses to a "pedagogy of the heart" approach in a first year university health science topic revealed anxiety, insecurity and perceptions of unpredictability in relation to an innovative arts-based assignment designed to elicit and assess experiential or imaginal knowledge. Using the lens of…

Acute cholecystitis in high risk surgical patients: percutaneous cholecystostomy versus laparoscopic cholecystectomy (CHOCOLATE trial): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Laparoscopic cholecystectomy in acute calculous cholecystitis in high risk patients can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. Percutaneous cholecystostomy may be an alternative treatment option but the current literature does not provide the surgical community with evidence based advice. Methods/Design The CHOCOLATE trial is a randomised controlled, parallel-group, superiority multicenter trial. High risk patients, defined as APACHE-II score 7-14, with acute calculous cholecystitis will be randomised to laparoscopic cholecystectomy or percutaneous cholecystostomy. During a two year period 284 patients will be enrolled from 30 high volume teaching hospitals. The primary endpoint is a composite endpoint of major complications within three months following randomization and need for re-intervention and mortality during the follow-up period of one year. Secondary endpoints include all other complications, duration of hospital admission, difficulty of procedures and total costs. Discussion The CHOCOLATE trial is designed to provide the surgical community with an evidence based guideline in the treatment of acute calculous cholecystitis in high risk patients. Trial Registration Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NTR2666 PMID:22236534

Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

2017-11-01

An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

Contract Design: Financial Options and Risk

PubMed Central

Amelung, Volker E.; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-01

Introduction: Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. When designing healthcare options contractors are faced with a variety of financial options. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. Methods: A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. This article is the second in a row of three that are all published in this issue and contribute to a specific issue in designing healthcare contracts. The first dealt with the organisation of contracts and information asymmetries, while part 3 concludes with the question of risk management and evaluation. The specific research question of this second article focusses on the financial options and reimbursement schemes that are available to define healthcare contracts. Results: A healthcare contract is a relational contract, which determines the level of reimbursement, the scope of services and the quality between service providers and payers, taking account of the risks relating to population and performance. A relational contract is an agreement based upon assumption of a longer timeframe. A major obstacle to the practical implementation of healthcare contracts is the prognosis of the inflows and outflows due to the actuarial risks of the insured population. Financing conditions and reimbursement arrangements that are based on a prospectively determined fixed price, have a significant drawback: it is very difficult to take the differences in health status and the utilisation of distinct insured clientele (panel) into account. Discussion and Conclusion: The first two articles of this series on contract design have shown that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic. Healthcare reimbursement contracts are incomplete contracts with a high degree of uncertainty. In incomplete contracts specific contractual regulations are not made for any eventuality. For this reason it is important that the parties agree on the prevention of endogenous risks (asymmetric information after the conclusion of the contract) and on the procedure in the case of unforeseen circumstances (the risks of random, parameter risk and change risks to the healthcare program). PMID:29588640

Contract Design: Financial Options and Risk.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. When designing healthcare options contractors are faced with a variety of financial options. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. This article is the second in a row of three that are all published in this issue and contribute to a specific issue in designing healthcare contracts. The first dealt with the organisation of contracts and information asymmetries, while part 3 concludes with the question of risk management and evaluation. The specific research question of this second article focusses on the financial options and reimbursement schemes that are available to define healthcare contracts. A healthcare contract is a relational contract, which determines the level of reimbursement, the scope of services and the quality between service providers and payers, taking account of the risks relating to population and performance. A relational contract is an agreement based upon assumption of a longer timeframe. A major obstacle to the practical implementation of healthcare contracts is the prognosis of the inflows and outflows due to the actuarial risks of the insured population. Financing conditions and reimbursement arrangements that are based on a prospectively determined fixed price, have a significant drawback: it is very difficult to take the differences in health status and the utilisation of distinct insured clientele (panel) into account. The first two articles of this series on contract design have shown that complete contracts in healthcare are unrealistic. Healthcare reimbursement contracts are incomplete contracts with a high degree of uncertainty. In incomplete contracts specific contractual regulations are not made for any eventuality. For this reason it is important that the parties agree on the prevention of endogenous risks (asymmetric information after the conclusion of the contract) and on the procedure in the case of unforeseen circumstances (the risks of random, parameter risk and change risks to the healthcare program).

Advanced Mirror System Demonstrator (AMSD) Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byberg, Alicia; Russell, J. Kevin; Kaukler, Donna; Burdine, Robert V. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This paper will report risk issues associated with designing, manufacturing, and testing the Advanced Mirror System Demonstrator (AMSD). The Advanced Mirror System Demonstrator (AMSD) will be developed as a lightweight primary mirror system that can be produced at a low cost and with a short manufacturing schedule. This technology will add to the knowledge base for selection for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST), Space Based Laser (SBL), Research Laboratory mission (AFRL), and other government agency programs.

Development and In Vitro Bioactivity Profiling of Alternative Sustainable Nanomaterials

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable, environmentally benign nanomaterials (NMs) are being designed as alternatives based on functionality to conventional metal-based nanomaterials (NMs) in order to minimize potential risk to human health and the environment. Development of rapid methods to evaluate the ...

A Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corbin, Barbara J.; Sulzman, Frank M.; Krenek, Sam

2006-01-01

The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. The term safely means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences (for example, excess lifetime fatal cancer risk) can be defined. The Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the understanding of health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus the fourth element develops computer codes to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

Effects of Tai Chi on Cognition and Fall Risk in Older Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Sungkarat, Somporn; Boripuntakul, Sirinun; Chattipakorn, Nipon; Watcharasaksilp, Kanokwan; Lord, Stephen R

2017-04-01

To examine whether combined center- and home-based Tai Chi training can improve cognitive ability and reduce physiological fall risk in older adults with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (a-MCI). Randomized controlled trial. Chiang Mai, Thailand. Adults aged 60 and older who met Petersen's criteria for multiple-domain a-MCI (N = 66). Three weeks center-based and 12 weeks home-based Tai Chi (50 minutes per session, 3 times per week). Cognitive tests, including Logical Memory (LM) delayed recall, Block Design, Digit Span forward and backward, and Trail-Making Test Part B-A (TMT B-A), and fall risk index using the Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA). At the end of the trial, performance on LM, Block Design, and TMT B-A were significantly better for the Tai Chi group than the control group after adjusting for baseline test performance. The Tai Chi group also had significantly better composite PPA score and PPA parameter scores: knee extension strength, reaction time, postural sway, and lower limb proprioception. Combined center- and home-based Tai Chi training three times per week for 15 weeks significantly improved cognitive function and moderately reduced physiological fall risk in older adults with multiple-domain a-MCI. Tai Chi may be particularly beneficial to older adults with this condition. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Multi-Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry (M-SAPE) Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samareh, Jamshid; Glaab, Louis; Winski, Richard G.; Maddock, Robert W.; Emmett, Anjie L.; Munk, Michelle M.; Agrawal, Parul; Sepka, Steve; Aliaga, Jose; Zarchi, Kerry;

Reduced Sexual Risk Behaviors Among Young Men of Color Who Have Sex with Men: Findings from the Community-Based Organization Behavioral Outcomes of Many Men, Many Voices (CBOP-3MV) Project.

PubMed

Stein, Renee; Shapatava, Ekaterine; Williams, Weston; Griffin, Tanesha; Bell, Kelly; Lyons, Bridget; Uhl, Gary

2015-11-01

In 2006, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded community-based organizations (CBOs) to deliver Many Men, Many Voices (3MV) to young men of color who have sex with men. Although 3MV, a group-level behavioral intervention designed to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk behaviors of black men who have sex with men (MSM), has shown effectiveness when delivered in a controlled research environment, there is limited evidence that the intervention is associated with similar outcomes in "real world" settings. For the current project, CDC funded three CBOs to conduct outcome monitoring of the 3MV intervention to determine if young MSM of color report changes in HIV risk behaviors postintervention. Using a repeated measures design, risk behaviors were collected at baseline and again at 3 and 6 months postintervention. Changes in risk behaviors were assessed using generalized estimating equations. Participants (n = 337) reported decreases in sexual risk behaviors at both follow-up time points, such as sex without a condom, sex without a condom and multiple partners, and sex without a condom with serodiscordant or status unknown partners. Results suggest that 3MV may be an effective tool for reducing HIV risk behaviors in this critical target population.

Ah-choo! Increased Risk of Pollen Allergies in the Northern Hemisphere

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Constible, Juanita; Sandro, Luke

2008-01-01

In this problem-based learning activity designed for nonscience majors, students assume the roles of scientists working for a public relations firm. Teams of students design communication products illustrating links between climate change and pollen allergies. Students develop a variety of process skills critical to scientists, including working…

The Commission Game: An Ethics Activity for Professional Selling Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milewicz, Chad

2012-01-01

The Commission Game is an experiment-based experiential learning activity designed to elicit students' sincere ethical decision making in an ambiguous sales context. The activity includes multiple relevant stakeholders as well as tangible, shared risk/reward elements. The activity's design encourages students to contemplate their own personal code…

Cognitive Profiles and Early Reading Remediation of At-Risk Elementary School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parrila, R. K.; Das, J. P.

Sixty-one grade 1 students experiencing early reading difficulties received either a cognitive remediation program (PREP; PASS Remediation Program) designed to facilitate successive and simultaneous processing skills, or a meaning-based language enrichment program designed to provide children with meaningful experiences in reading. Repeated…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mouton, S.; Ledoux, Y.; Teissandier, D.

A key challenge for the future is to reduce drastically the human impact on the environment. In the aeronautic field, this challenge aims at optimizing the design of the aircraft to decrease the global mass. This reduction leads to the optimization of every part constitutive of the plane. This operation is even more delicate when the used material is composite material. In this case, it is necessary to find a compromise between the strength, the mass and the manufacturing cost of the component. Due to these different kinds of design constraints it is necessary to assist engineer with decision supportmore » system to determine feasible solutions. In this paper, an approach is proposed based on the coupling of the different key characteristics of the design process and on the consideration of the failure risk of the component. The originality of this work is that the manufacturing deviations due to the RTM process are integrated in the simulation of the assembly process. Two kinds of deviations are identified: volume impregnation (injection phase of RTM process) and geometrical deviations (curing and cooling phases). The quantification of these deviations and the related failure risk calculation is based on finite element simulations (Pam RTM registered and Samcef registered softwares). The use of genetic algorithm allows to estimate the impact of the design choices and their consequences on the failure risk of the component. The main focus of the paper is the optimization of tool design. In the framework of decision support systems, the failure risk calculation is used for making the comparison of possible industrialization alternatives. It is proposed to apply this method on a particular part of the airplane structure: a spar unit made of carbon fiber/epoxy composite.« less

Mental Health Professionals' Suicide Risk Assessment and Management Practices.

PubMed

Roush, Jared F; Brown, Sarah L; Jahn, Danielle R; Mitchell, Sean M; Taylor, Nathanael J; Quinnett, Paul; Ries, Richard

2018-01-01

Approximately 20% of suicide decedents have had contact with a mental health professional within 1 month prior to their death, and the majority of mental health professionals have treated suicidal individuals. Despite limited evidence-based training, mental health professionals make important clinical decisions related to suicide risk assessment and management. The current study aimed to determine the frequency of suicide risk assessment and management practices and the association between fear of suicide-related outcomes or comfort working with suicidal individuals and adequacy of suicide risk management decisions among mental health professionals. Mental health professionals completed self-report assessments of fear, comfort, and suicide risk assessment and management practices. Approximately one third of mental health professionals did not ask every patient about current or previous suicidal thoughts or behaviors. Further, comfort, but not fear, was positively associated with greater odds of conducting evidence-based suicide risk assessments at first appointments and adequacy of suicide risk management practices with patients reporting suicide ideation and a recent suicide attempt. The study utilized a cross-sectional design and self-report questionnaires. Although the majority of mental health professionals report using evidenced-based practices, there appears to be variability in utilization of evidence-based practices.

Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

2015-04-01

Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and policies on spatial planning rules are implemented. Preliminary results demonstrate the evolving nature of flood risks and describe the effectiveness of different planning policies to reduce risk and increase resilience.

Sleep disturbances as an evidence-based suicide risk factor.

PubMed

Bernert, Rebecca A; Kim, Joanne S; Iwata, Naomi G; Perlis, Michael L

2015-03-01

Increasing research indicates that sleep disturbances may confer increased risk for suicidal behaviors, including suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and death by suicide. Despite increased investigation, a number of methodological problems present important limitations to the validity and generalizability of findings in this area, which warrant additional focus. To evaluate and delineate sleep disturbances as an evidence-based suicide risk factor, a systematic review of the extant literature was conducted with methodological considerations as a central focus. The following methodologic criteria were required for inclusion: the report (1) evaluated an index of sleep disturbance; (2) examined an outcome measure for suicidal behavior; (3) adjusted for presence of a depression diagnosis or depression severity, as a covariate; and (4) represented an original investigation as opposed to a chart review. Reports meeting inclusion criteria were further classified and reviewed according to: study design and timeframe; sample type and size; sleep disturbance, suicide risk, and depression covariate assessment measure(s); and presence of positive versus negative findings. Based on keyword search, the following search engines were used: PubMed and PsycINFO. Search criteria generated N = 82 articles representing original investigations focused on sleep disturbances and suicide outcomes. Of these, N = 18 met inclusion criteria for review based on systematic analysis. Of the reports identified, N = 18 evaluated insomnia or poor sleep quality symptoms, whereas N = 8 assessed nightmares in association with suicide risk. Despite considerable differences in study designs, samples, and assessment techniques, the comparison of such reports indicates preliminary, converging evidence for sleep disturbances as an empirical risk factor for suicidal behaviors, while highlighting important, future directions for increased investigation.

Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

PubMed

Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

2016-01-01

Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Long-Term Unemployment and Suicide: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Milner, Allison; Page, Andrew; LaMontagne, Anthony D.

2013-01-01

Purpose There have been a number of reviews on the association+ between unemployment and suicide, but none have investigated how this relationship is influenced by duration of unemployment. Method A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of those studies that assessed duration of unemployment as a risk factor for suicide. Studies considered as eligible for inclusion were population-based cohort or case-control designs; population-based ecological designs, or hospital based clinical cohort or case-control designs published in the year 1980 or later. Results The review identified 16 eligible studies, out of a possible 10,358 articles resulting from a search of four databases: PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Scopus and Proquest. While all 16 studies measured unemployment duration in different ways, a common finding was that longer duration of unemployment was related to greater risk of suicide and suicide attempt. A random effects meta-analysis on a subsample of six cohort studies indicated that the pooled relative risk of suicide in relation to average follow-up time after unemployment was 1.70 (95% CI 1.22 to 2.18). However, results also suggested a possible habituation effect to unemployment over time, with the greatest risk of suicide occurring within five years of unemployment compared to the employed population (RR = 2.50, 95% CI 1.83 to 3.17). Relative risk appeared to decline in studies of those unemployed between 12 and 16 years compared to those currently employed (RR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.33). Conclusion Findings suggest that long-term unemployment is associated with greater incidence of suicide. Results of the meta-analysis suggest that risk is greatest in the first five years, and persists at a lower but elevated level up to 16 years after unemployment. These findings are limited by the paucity of data on this topic. PMID:23341881

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

2011-01-01

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

Design risk assessment for burst-prone mines: Application in a Canadian mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, David J.

A proactive stance towards improving the effectiveness and consistency of risk assessments has been adopted recently by mining companies and industry. The next 10-20 years forecasts that ore deposits accessible using shallow mining techniques will diminish. The industry continues to strive for success in "deeper" mining projects in order to keep up with the continuing demand for raw materials. Although the returns are quite profitable, many projects have been sidelined due to high uncertainty and technical risk in the mining of the mineral deposit. Several hardrock mines have faced rockbursting and seismicity problems. Within those reported, mines in countries like South Africa, Australia and Canada have documented cases of severe rockburst conditions attributed to the mining depth. Severe rockburst conditions known as "burst-prone" can be effectively managed with design. Adopting a more robust design can ameliorate the exposure of workers and equipment to adverse conditions and minimize the economic consequences, which can hinder the bottom line of an operation. This thesis presents a methodology created for assessing the design risk in burst-prone mines. The methodology includes an evaluation of relative risk ratings for scenarios with options of risk reduction through several design principles. With rockbursts being a hazard of seismic events, the methodology is based on research in the area of mining seismicity factoring in rockmass failure mechanisms, which results from a combination of mining induced stress, geological structures, rockmass properties and mining influences. The methodology was applied to case studies at Craig Mine of Xstrata Nickel in Sudbury, Ontario, which is known to contain seismically active fault zones. A customized risk assessment was created and applied to rockburst case studies, evaluating the seismic vulnerability and consequence for each case. Application of the methodology to Craig Mine demonstrates that changes in the design can reduce both exposure risk (personnel and equipment), and economical risk (revenue and costs). Fatal and catastrophic consequences can be averted through robust planning and design. Two customized approaches were developed to conduct risk assessment of case studies at Craig Mine. Firstly, the Brownfield Approach utilizes the seismic database to determine the seismic hazard from a rating system that evaluates frequency-magnitude, event size, and event-blast relation. Secondly, the Greenfield Approach utilizes the seismic database, focusing on larger magnitude events, rocktype, and geological structure. The customized Greenfield Approach can also be applied in the evaluation of design risk in deep mines with the same setting and condition as Craig Mine. Other mines with different settings and conditions can apply the principles in the methodology to evaluate design alternatives and risk reduction strategies for burst-prone mines.

Breast Cancer Screening in the Precision Medicine Era: Risk-Based Screening in a Population-Based Trial.

PubMed

Shieh, Yiwey; Eklund, Martin; Madlensky, Lisa; Sawyer, Sarah D; Thompson, Carlie K; Stover Fiscalini, Allison; Ziv, Elad; Van't Veer, Laura J; Esserman, Laura J; Tice, Jeffrey A

2017-01-01

Ongoing controversy over the optimal approach to breast cancer screening has led to discordant professional society recommendations, particularly in women age 40 to 49 years. One potential solution is risk-based screening, where decisions around the starting age, stopping age, frequency, and modality of screening are based on individual risk to maximize the early detection of aggressive cancers and minimize the harms of screening through optimal resource utilization. We present a novel approach to risk-based screening that integrates clinical risk factors, breast density, a polygenic risk score representing the cumulative effects of genetic variants, and sequencing for moderate- and high-penetrance germline mutations. We demonstrate how thresholds of absolute risk estimates generated by our prediction tools can be used to stratify women into different screening strategies (biennial mammography, annual mammography, annual mammography with adjunctive magnetic resonance imaging, defer screening at this time) while informing the starting age of screening for women age 40 to 49 years. Our risk thresholds and corresponding screening strategies are based on current evidence but need to be tested in clinical trials. The Women Informed to Screen Depending On Measures of risk (WISDOM) Study, a pragmatic, preference-tolerant randomized controlled trial of annual vs personalized screening, will study our proposed approach. WISDOM will evaluate the efficacy, safety, and acceptability of risk-based screening beginning in the fall of 2016. The adaptive design of this trial allows continued refinement of our risk thresholds as the trial progresses, and we discuss areas where we anticipate emerging evidence will impact our approach. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nuclear power and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA): past through future applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamatelatos, M. G.; Moieni, P.; Everline, C. J.

1995-03-01

Nuclear power reactor safety in the United States is about to enter a new era -- an era of risk- based management and risk-based regulation. First, there was the age of `prescribed safety assessment,' during which a series of design-basis accidents in eight categories of severity, or classes, were postulated and analyzed. Toward the end of that era, it was recognized that `Class 9,' or `beyond design basis,' accidents would need special attention because of the potentially severe health and financial consequences of these accidents. The accident at Three Mile Island showed that sequences of low-consequence, high-frequency events and human errors can be much more risk dominant than the Class 9 accidents. A different form of safety assessment, PSA, emerged and began to gain ground against the deterministic safety establishment. Eventually, this led to the current regulatory requirements for individual plant examinations (IPEs). The IPEs can serve as a basis for risk-based regulation and management, a concept that may ultimately transform the U.S. regulatory process from its traditional deterministic foundations to a process predicated upon PSA. Beyond the possibility of a regulatory environment predicated upon PSA lies the possibility of using PSA as the foundation for managing daily nuclear power plant operations.

Quality-by-design approach for the development of telmisartan potassium tablets.

PubMed

Oh, Ga-Hui; Park, Jin-Hyun; Shin, Hye-Won; Kim, Joo-Eun; Park, Young-Joon

2018-05-01

A quality-by-design approach was adopted to develop telmisartan potassium (TP) tablets, which were bioequivalent with the commercially available Micardis ® (telmisartan free base) tablets. The dissolution pattern and impurity profile of TP tablets differed from those of Micardis ® tablets because telmisartan free base is poorly soluble in water. After identifying the quality target product profile and critical quality attributes (CQAs), drug dissolution, and impurities were predicted to be risky CQAs. To determine the exact range and cause of risks, we used the risk assessment (RA) tools, preliminary hazard analysis and failure mode and effect analysis to determine the parameters affecting drug dissolution, impurities, and formulation. The range of the design space was optimized using the face-centered central composite design among the design of experiment (DOE) methods. The binder, disintegrant, and kneading time in the wet granulation were identified as X values affecting Y values (disintegration, hardness, friability, dissolution, and impurities). After determining the design space with the desired Y values, the TP tablets were formulated and their dissolution pattern was compared with that of the reference tablet. The selected TP tablet formulated using design space showed a similar dissolution to that of Micardis ® tablets at pH 7.5. The QbD approach TP tablet was bioequivalent to Micardis ® tablets in beagle dogs.

Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

PubMed

Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

2014-04-01

A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

2016-01-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

PubMed

Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

2016-12-01

Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a qualitative or semi-quantitative rather than fully quantitative risk assessment, but an added benefit is that the disciplined structuring of available knowledge enables clear identification of gaps to target resources and if appropriate, instigate data generation. © 2016 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

Decrease in Behavioral Problems and Trauma Symptoms Among At-Risk Adopted Children Following Web-Based Trauma-Informed Parent Training Intervention

PubMed Central

Razuri, Erin Becker; Hiles Howard, Amanda R.; Parris, Sheri R.; Call, Casey D.; DeLuna, Jamie Hurst; Hall, Jordan S.; Purvis, Karyn B.; Cross, David R.

2016-01-01

Children who have experienced early adversities are at risk for behavioral problems and trauma symptoms. Using a two-group, pre–post intervention design, the authors evaluated the effectiveness of an online parent training for Trust-Based Relational Intervention, a trauma-informed, attachment-based intervention, in reducing behavioral problems and trauma symptoms in at-risk adopted children. Children of parents in the treatment group (n = 48) demonstrated significant decreases in behavioral problems and trauma symptoms after intervention. Scores for children in a matched-sample control group did not change. Findings suggest this intervention can effectively reduce behavioral problems and trauma symptoms in children with histories of adversities. PMID:26072917

Towards non-conventional methods of designing register-based epidemiological studies: An application to pediatric research.

PubMed

Gong, Tong; Brew, Bronwyn; Sjölander, Arvid; Almqvist, Catarina

2017-07-01

Various epidemiological designs have been applied to investigate the causes and consequences of fetal growth restriction in register-based observational studies. This review seeks to provide an overview of several conventional designs, including cohort, case-control and more recently applied non-conventional designs such as family-based designs. We also discuss some practical points regarding the application and interpretation of family-based designs. Definitions of each design, the study population, the exposure and the outcome measures are briefly summarised. Examples of study designs are taken from the field of low birth-weight research for illustrative purposes. Also examined are relative advantages and disadvantages of each design in terms of assumptions, potential selection and information bias, confounding and generalisability. Kinship data linkage, statistical models and result interpretation are discussed specific to family-based designs. When all information is retrieved from registers, there is no evident preference of the case-control design over the cohort design to estimate odds ratios. All conventional designs included in the review are prone to bias, particularly due to residual confounding. Family-based designs are able to reduce such bias and strengthen causal inference. In the field of low birth-weight research, family-based designs have been able to confirm a negative association not confounded by genetic or shared environmental factors between low birth weight and the risk of asthma. We conclude that there is a broader need for family-based design in observational research as evidenced by the meaningful contributions to the understanding of the potential causal association between low birth weight and subsequent outcomes.

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Decomposition-Based Failure Mode Identification Method for Risk-Free Design of Large Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Irem Y.; Stone, Robert B.; Roberts, Rory A.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

When designing products, it is crucial to assure failure and risk-free operation in the intended operating environment. Failures are typically studied and eliminated as much as possible during the early stages of design. The few failures that go undetected result in unacceptable damage and losses in high-risk applications where public safety is of concern. Published NASA and NTSB accident reports point to a variety of components identified as sources of failures in the reported cases. In previous work, data from these reports were processed and placed in matrix form for all the system components and failure modes encountered, and then manipulated using matrix methods to determine similarities between the different components and failure modes. In this paper, these matrices are represented in the form of a linear combination of failures modes, mathematically formed using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) decomposition. The PCA decomposition results in a low-dimensionality representation of all failure modes and components of interest, represented in a transformed coordinate system. Such a representation opens the way for efficient pattern analysis and prediction of failure modes with highest potential risks on the final product, rather than making decisions based on the large space of component and failure mode data. The mathematics of the proposed method are explained first using a simple example problem. The method is then applied to component failure data gathered from helicopter, accident reports to demonstrate its potential.

Creating the Action Model for High Risk Infant Follow Up Program in Iran.

PubMed

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Jodiery, Behzad; Mirnia, Kayvan; Akrami, Forouzan; Hosseini, Mohammad Bagher; Heidarabadi, Seifollah; HabibeLahi, Abbas

2013-11-01

Intervention in early childhood development as one of the social determinants of health, is important for reducing social gap and inequity. In spite of increasingly developing intensive neonatal care wards and decreasing neonatal mortality rate, there is no follow up program in Iran. This study was carreid out to design high risk infants follow up care program with the practical aim of creating an model action for whole country, in 2012. This qualitative study has been done by the Neonatal Department of the Deputy of Public Health in cooperation with Pediatrics Health Research Center of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Iran. After study of international documents, consensus agreement about adapted program for Iran has been accomplished by focus group discussion and attended Delphi agreement technique. After compiling primary draft included evidence based guidelines and executive plan, 14 sessions including expert panels were hold to finalize the program. After finalizing the program, high risk infants follow up care service package has been designed in 3 chapters: Evidence based clinical guidelines; eighteen main clinical guidelines and thirteen subsidiaries clinical guidelines, executive plan; 6 general, 6 following up and 5 backup processes. Education program including general and especial courses for care givers and follow up team, and family education processes. We designed and finalized high risk infants follow up care service package. It seems to open a way to extend it to whole country.

Active animal health surveillance in European Union Member States: gaps and opportunities.

PubMed

Bisdorff, B; Schauer, B; Taylor, N; Rodríguez-Prieto, V; Comin, A; Brouwer, A; Dórea, F; Drewe, J; Hoinville, L; Lindberg, A; Martinez Avilés, M; Martínez-López, B; Peyre, M; Pinto Ferreira, J; Rushton, J; VAN Schaik, G; Stärk, K D C; Staubach, C; Vicente-Rubiano, M; Witteveen, G; Pfeiffer, D; Häsler, B

2017-03-01

Animal health surveillance enables the detection and control of animal diseases including zoonoses. Under the EU-FP7 project RISKSUR, a survey was conducted in 11 EU Member States and Switzerland to describe active surveillance components in 2011 managed by the public or private sector and identify gaps and opportunities. Information was collected about hazard, target population, geographical focus, legal obligation, management, surveillance design, risk-based sampling, and multi-hazard surveillance. Two countries were excluded due to incompleteness of data. Most of the 664 components targeted cattle (26·7%), pigs (17·5%) or poultry (16·0%). The most common surveillance objectives were demonstrating freedom from disease (43·8%) and case detection (26·8%). Over half of components applied risk-based sampling (57·1%), but mainly focused on a single population stratum (targeted risk-based) rather than differentiating between risk levels of different strata (stratified risk-based). About a third of components were multi-hazard (37·3%). Both risk-based sampling and multi-hazard surveillance were used more frequently in privately funded components. The study identified several gaps (e.g. lack of systematic documentation, inconsistent application of terminology) and opportunities (e.g. stratified risk-based sampling). The greater flexibility provided by the new EU Animal Health Law means that systematic evaluation of surveillance alternatives will be required to optimize cost-effectiveness.

The FRIENDS emotional health program for minority groups at risk.

PubMed

Iizuka, Cristina A; Barrett, Paula M; Gillies, Robyn; Cook, Clayton R; Miller, Debbie

2014-02-01

Despite the existence of evidence-based interventions for promoting mental health in children, the number of children at risk remains high. One of the reasons is that such interventions are not reaching specific groups at risk such as low socioeconomic status and ethnic minority groups. This study evaluated an adaptation of a school-based psychosocial program for nonreferred students aged 11 to 12 years attending a multicultural school from a low socioeconomic status area. The FRIENDS Program was adapted for a multicultural population. A quasi-experimental design was used, involving a pre/post-test, to evaluate the impact of the intervention on participants' outcomes on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Participants were divided into 2 categories ("at risk"/"not at risk") based on their scores in the SDQ at pre-test. Post-test data were collected to evaluate the overall effectiveness and acceptability of the program. Analyses showed significant improvement for the group initially identified as "at risk," with 30% of the students being no longer at risk after the intervention. Most students rated the intervention as being highly acceptable and useful. Adaptations to existing evidence-based programs for implementation with specific minority groups at risk represents a promising approach to promote emotional health in children. © 2014, American School Health Association.

Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted

Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.

Subgroup identification of early preterm birth (ePTB): informing a future prospective enrichment clinical trial design.

PubMed

Zhang, Chuanwu; Garrard, Lili; Keighley, John; Carlson, Susan; Gajewski, Byron

2017-01-10

Despite the widely recognized association between the severity of early preterm birth (ePTB) and its related severe diseases, little is known about the potential risk factors of ePTB and the sub-population with high risk of ePTB. Moreover, motivated by a future confirmatory clinical trial to identify whether supplementing pregnant women with docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) has a different effect on the risk subgroup population or not in terms of ePTB prevalence, this study aims to identify potential risk subgroups and risk factors for ePTB, defined as babies born less than 34 weeks of gestation. The analysis data (N = 3,994,872) were obtained from CDC and NCHS' 2014 Natality public data file. The sample was split into independent training and validation cohorts for model generation and model assessment, respectively. Logistic regression and CART models were used to examine potential ePTB risk predictors and their interactions, including mothers' age, nativity, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, education, pre-pregnancy smoking status, pre-pregnancy BMI, pre-pregnancy diabetes status, pre-pregnancy hypertension status, previous preterm birth status, infertility treatment usage status, fertility enhancing drug usage status, and delivery payment source. Both logistic regression models with either 14 or 10 ePTB risk factors produced the same C-index (0.646) based on the training cohort. The C-index of the logistic regression model based on 10 predictors was 0.645 for the validation cohort. Both C-indexes indicated a good discrimination and acceptable model fit. The CART model identified preterm birth history and race as the most important risk factors, and revealed that the subgroup with a preterm birth history and a race designation as Black had the highest risk for ePTB. The c-index and misclassification rate were 0.579 and 0.034 for the training cohort, and 0.578 and 0.034 for the validation cohort, respectively. This study revealed 14 maternal characteristic variables that reliably identified risk for ePTB through either logistic regression model and/or a CART model. Moreover, both models efficiently identify risk subgroups for further enrichment clinical trial design.

Managing Technical and Cost Uncertainties During Product Development in a Simulation-Based Design Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karandikar, Harsh M.

1997-01-01

An approach for objective and quantitative technical and cost risk analysis during product development, which is applicable from the earliest stages, is discussed. The approach is supported by a software tool called the Analytical System for Uncertainty and Risk Estimation (ASURE). Details of ASURE, the underlying concepts and its application history, are provided.

Computeen: A Randomized Trial of a Preventive Computer and Psychosocial Skills Curriculum for At-Risk Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lang, Jason M.; Waterman, Jill; Baker, Bruce L.

2009-01-01

Computeen, a preventive technology and psychosocial skills development program for at-risk adolescents, was designed to improve computer skills, self-esteem, and school attitudes, and reduce behavior problems, by combining elements of community-based and empirically supported prevention programs. Fifty-five mostly Latino adolescents from 12 to 16…

System Concepts for Affordable Fission Surface Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Lee; Poston, David; Qualls, Louis

2008-01-01

This paper presents an overview of an affordable Fission Surface Power (FSP) system that could be used for NASA applications on the Moon and Mars. The proposed FSP system uses a low temperature, uranium dioxide-fueled, liquid metal-cooled fission reactor coupled to free-piston Stirling converters. The concept was determined by a 12 month NASA/DOE study that examined design options and development strategies based on affordability and risk. The system is considered a low development risk based on the use of terrestrial-derived reactor technology, high efficiency power conversion, and conventional materials. The low-risk approach was selected over other options that could offer higher performance and/or lower mass.

Tailored community cancer education programs: Pawsox and prostates.

PubMed

Glicksman, Arvin S; Meyer, Andrea; Dipiero, Maureen

2010-06-01

To assess the prostate cancer screening practices in Rhode Island, we designed a questionnaire which was sent to 150 primary care physicians. A population-based survey was distributed to 194 men over 40 asking about screening history and risk factors. Eighty-five percent of primary care physicians reported performing annual prostate-specific antigen tests (PSAs) and digital rectal exams, 63% recognized family history as a risk factor, and 14% identified African Americans as a high-risk population. The survey found that 48% of men recognized family history as a risk factor and 6% understood that African Americans were at high risk. Each year, 200 men, primarily SED, are invited to a PawSox baseball game where physicians provide information on prostate cancer risk, treatment options, and outcomes. Free PSAs are provided. The questionnaire and survey demonstrate a need for more public education regarding prostate cancer in high-risk populations. Tailored community-based interventions, such as the Pawsox & Prostate program, can be effective professional and public education strategies to increase screening in high-risk populations.

Reduction of spatial distribution of risk factors for transportation of contaminants released by coal mining activities.

PubMed

Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan

2016-09-15

It is reported that water-energy nexus composes two of the biggest development and human health challenges. In the present study we presented a Risk Potential Index (RPI) model which encapsulates Source, Vector (Transport), and Target risks for forecasting surface water contamination. The main aim of the model is to identify critical surface water risk zones for an open cast mining environment, taking Jharia Coalfield, India as the study area. The model also helps in feasible sampling design. Based on spatial analysis various risk zones were successfully delineated. Monthly RPI distribution revealed that the risk of surface water contamination was highest during the monsoon months. Surface water samples were analysed to validate the model. A GIS based alternative management option was proposed to reduce surface water contamination risk and observed 96% and 86% decrease in the spatial distribution of very high risk areas for the months June and July respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

PubMed Central

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. PMID:27084274

Finite element analysis of container ship's cargo hold using ANSYS and POSEIDON software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanny, Tania Tamiz; Akter, Naznin; Amin, Osman Md.

2017-12-01

Nowadays ship structural analysis has become an integral part of the preliminary ship design providing further support for the development and detail design of ship structures. Structural analyses of container ship's cargo holds are carried out for the balancing of their safety and capacity, as those ships are exposed to the high risk of structural damage during voyage. Two different design methodologies have been considered for the structural analysis of a container ship's cargo hold. One is rule-based methodology and the other is a more conventional software based analyses. The rule based analysis is done by DNV-GL's software POSEIDON and the conventional package based analysis is done by ANSYS structural module. Both methods have been applied to analyze some of the mechanical properties of the model such as total deformation, stress-strain distribution, Von Mises stress, Fatigue etc., following different design bases and approaches, to indicate some guidance's for further improvements in ship structural design.

həli?dxw/Healthy Hearts Across Generations: Development and Evaluation Design of a Tribally Based Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Intervention for American Indian Families

PubMed Central

LaMarr, June; Levy, Rona L.; Pearson, Cynthia; Maresca, Teresa; Mohammed, Selina A.; Simoni, Jane M.; Evans-Campbell, Teresa; Fredriksen-Goldsen, Karen; Fryberg, Sheryl; Jobe, Jared B.

2012-01-01

American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) populations are disproportionately at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and obesity, compared with the general US population. This article describes the həli?dxw/Healthy Hearts Across Generations project, an AIAN-run, tribally based randomized controlled trial (January 2010–June 2012) designed to evaluate a culturally appropriate CVD risk prevention program for AI parents residing in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. At-risk AIAN adults (n = 135) were randomly assigned to either a CVD prevention intervention arm or a comparison arm focusing on increasing family cohesiveness, communication, and connectedness. Both year-long conditions included 1 month of motivational interviewing counseling followed by personal coach contacts and family life-skills classes. Blood chemistry, blood pressure, body mass index, food intake, and physical activity were measured at baseline and at 4- and 12-month follow-up times. PMID:22965622

Cloud-Based Smart Health Monitoring System for Automatic Cardiovascular and Fall Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients.

PubMed

Melillo, P; Orrico, A; Scala, P; Crispino, F; Pecchia, L

2015-10-01

The aim of this paper is to describe the design and the preliminary validation of a platform developed to collect and automatically analyze biomedical signals for risk assessment of vascular events and falls in hypertensive patients. This m-health platform, based on cloud computing, was designed to be flexible, extensible, and transparent, and to provide proactive remote monitoring via data-mining functionalities. A retrospective study was conducted to train and test the platform. The developed system was able to predict a future vascular event within the next 12 months with an accuracy rate of 84 % and to identify fallers with an accuracy rate of 72 %. In an ongoing prospective trial, almost all the recruited patients accepted favorably the system with a limited rate of inadherences causing data losses (<20 %). The developed platform supported clinical decision by processing tele-monitored data and providing quick and accurate risk assessment of vascular events and falls.

Project həli?dx(w)/Healthy Hearts Across Generations: development and evaluation design of a tribally based cardiovascular disease prevention intervention for American Indian families.

PubMed

Walters, Karina L; LaMarr, June; Levy, Rona L; Pearson, Cynthia; Maresca, Teresa; Mohammed, Selina A; Simoni, Jane M; Evans-Campbell, Teresa; Fredriksen-Goldsen, Karen; Fryberg, Sheryl; Jobe, Jared B

2012-08-01

American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) populations are disproportionately at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and obesity, compared with the general US population. This article describes the həli?dx(w)/Healthy Hearts Across Generations project, an AIAN-run, tribally based randomized controlled trial (January 2010-June 2012) designed to evaluate a culturally appropriate CVD risk prevention program for AI parents residing in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. At-risk AIAN adults (n = 135) were randomly assigned to either a CVD prevention intervention arm or a comparison arm focusing on increasing family cohesiveness, communication, and connectedness. Both year-long conditions included 1 month of motivational interviewing counseling followed by personal coach contacts and family life-skills classes. Blood chemistry, blood pressure, body mass index, food intake, and physical activity were measured at baseline and at 4- and 12-month follow-up times.

Oral Hygiene and Cardiometabolic Disease Risk in the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin

PubMed Central

VanWormer, Jeffrey J.; Acharya, Amit; Greenlee, Robert T.; Nieto, F. Javier

2012-01-01

Objectives Poor oral health is an increasingly recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D), but little is known about the association between toothbrushing or flossing and cardiometabolic disease risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the degree to which an oral hygiene index was associated with CVD and T2D risk scores among disease-free adults in the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin. Methods All variables were measured in 2008–2010 in this cross-sectional design. Based on toothbrushing and flossing frequency, and oral hygiene index (poor, fair, good, excellent) was created as the primary predictor variable. The outcomes, CVD and T2D risk score, were based on previous estimates from large cohort studies. There were 712 and 296 individuals with complete data available for linear regression analyses in the CVD and T2D samples, respectively. Results After covariate adjustment, the final model indicated that participants in the excellent (β±SE=−0.019±0.008, p=0.020) oral hygiene category had a significantly lower CVD risk score as compared to participants in the poor oral hygiene category. Sensitivity analyses indicated that both toothbrushing and flossing were independently associated with CVD risk score, and various modifiable risk factors. Oral hygiene was not significantly associated with T2D risk score. Conclusions Regular toothbrushing and flossing are associated with a more favorable CVD risk profile, but more experimental research is needed in this area to precisely determine the effects of various oral self-care maintenance behaviors on the control of individual cardiometabolic risk factors. These findings may inform future joint medical-dental initiatives designed to close gaps in the primary prevention of oral and systemic diseases. PMID:23106415

Venue-Based Recruitment of Women at Elevated Risk for HIV: An HIV Prevention Trials Network Study

PubMed Central

Golin, Carol; El-Sadr, Wafaa; Hughes, James P.; Wang, Jing; Roman Isler, Malika; Mannheimer, Sharon; Kuo, Irene; Lucas, Jonathan; DiNenno, Elizabeth; Justman, Jessica; Frew, Paula M.; Emel, Lynda; Rompalo, Anne; Polk, Sarah; Adimora, Adaora A.; Rodriquez, Lorenna; Soto-Torres, Lydia; Hodder, Sally

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: The challenge of identifying and recruiting U.S. women at elevated risk for HIV acquisition impedes prevention studies and services. HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 064 was a U.S. multisite, longitudinal cohort study designed to estimate HIV incidence among women living in communities with prevalent HIV and poverty. Venue-based sampling (VBS) methodologies and participant and venue characteristics are described. Methods: Eligible women were recruited from 10 U.S. communities with prevalent HIV and poverty using VBS. Participant eligibility criteria included age 18–44 years, residing in a designated census tract/zip code, and self-report of at least one high-risk personal and/or male sexual partner characteristic associated with HIV acquisition (e.g., incarceration history). Ethnography was conducted to finalize recruitment areas and venues. Results: Eight thousand twenty-nine women were screened and 2,099 women were enrolled (88% black, median age 29 years) over 14 months. The majority of participants were recruited from outdoor venues (58%), retail spaces (18%), and social service organizations (13%). The proportion of women recruited per venue category varied by site. Most participants (73%) had both individual and partner characteristics that qualified them for the study; 14% were eligible based on partner risk only. Conclusion: VBS is a feasible and effective approach to rapidly recruit a population of women at enhanced risk for HIV in the United States. Such a recruitment approach is needed in order to engage women most at risk and requires strong community engagement. PMID:24742266

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation: a case study in the catchments of the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Chang, J.; Guo, A.

2017-12-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on flood control systems. Given this focus, a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework focusing on flood control and sediment transport is proposed in the current work. Additionally, the conditional probabilities of occurrence of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is used to evaluate the uncertainties of univariate and bivariate hydrological risk. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The results indicate that (1) 2-day and 3-day consecutive rainfall are highly correlated with the annual maximum flood discharge (AMF) in UCX and UCH, respectively; and (2) univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are successfully estimated. Sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the AMF, exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Most importantly, there was considerable sampling uncertainty in the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk analysis, which would greatly challenge measures of future flood mitigation. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

78 FR 36205 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

... identification, referral for services, and service follow-up of youth at risk. \\1\\ The evaluation as designed... activities of the grantees, the research questions outlined in the evaluation statement of work, and the state of the knowledge base in the field of suicide prevention. As such, while the evaluation design...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... results of the application of safety design principles as noted in Appendix C to this part. The MTTHE is... fault/failure analysis must be based on the assessment of the design and implementation of all safety... associated device drivers, as well as historical performance data, analytical methods and experimental safety...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... results of the application of safety design principles as noted in Appendix C to this part. The MTTHE is... fault/failure analysis must be based on the assessment of the design and implementation of all safety... associated device drivers, as well as historical performance data, analytical methods and experimental safety...

Blended Course Design: Where's the Pedagogy?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGee, Patricia

2014-01-01

Blended or hybrid course design is generally considered to involve a combination of online and classroom activities. However defining blended courses solely based on delivery mode suggests there is nothing more to a blended course than where students meet and how they use technology. Ultimately there is a risk that blended courses defined in this…

Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rootzén, Holger; Katz, Richard W.

2013-09-01

In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on the assumption of a stationary climate and do not apply to a changing climate, whether local or global. In this paper, we propose a refined concept, Design Life Level, which quantifies risk in a nonstationary climate and can serve as the basis for communication. In current practice, typical hydrologic risk management focuses on a standard (e.g., in terms of a high quantile corresponding to the specified probability of failure for a single year). Nevertheless, the basic information needed for engineering design should consist of (i) the design life period (e.g., the next 50 years, say 2015-2064); and (ii) the probability (e.g., 5% chance) of a hazardous event (typically, in the form of the hydrologic variable exceeding a high level) occurring during the design life period. Capturing both of these design characteristics, the Design Life Level is defined as an upper quantile (e.g., 5%) of the distribution of the maximum value of the hydrologic variable (e.g., water level) over the design life period. We relate this concept and variants of it to existing literature and illustrate how they, and some useful complementary plots, may be computed and used. One practically important consideration concerns quantifying the statistical uncertainty in estimating a high quantile under nonstationarity.

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

Developing healthy kids in healthy communities: eight evidence-based strategies for preventing high-risk behaviour.

PubMed

Hopkins, Gary L; McBride, Duane; Marshak, Helen H; Freier, Kiti; Stevens, John V; Kannenberg, Wendi; Weaver, James B; Sargent Weaver, Stephanie L; Landless, Peter N; Duffy, Jonathan

2007-05-21

Australian youth engage in behaviour that threatens their health and wellbeing. National surveys report that about a third of young Australians have tried an illicit drug. High rates of substance use and risky sexual behaviour among young Australians suggest that effective prevention efforts based on empirical evidence need to be expanded. Church-associated organisations are an untapped resource that could be used to improve the health and welfare of young people. We describe eight evidence-based elements to consider in designing strategies to prevent high-risk behaviour in young people.

System Risk Balancing Profiles: Software Component

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, John C.; Sigal, Burton C.; Gindorf, Tom

2000-01-01

The Software QA / V&V guide will be reviewed and updated based on feedback from NASA organizations and others with a vested interest in this area. Hardware, EEE Parts, Reliability, and Systems Safety are a sample of the future guides that will be developed. Cost Estimates, Lessons Learned, Probability of Failure and PACTS (Prevention, Avoidance, Control or Test) are needed to provide a more complete risk management strategy. This approach to risk management is designed to help balance the resources and program content for risk reduction for NASA's changing environment.

Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

Development of a Barbershop-Based HIV/STI Risk Reduction Intervention for Young Heterosexual African American Men.

PubMed

Jemmott, Loretta Sweet; Jemmott, John B; Lanier, Yzette; Thompson, Ciarra; Baker, Jillian Lucas

2016-08-12

Young, heterosexual African American men ages 18 to 24 years continue to be at high risk for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. However, few interventions have been designed to meet the needs of this "forgotten" population. The article describes the systematic development of a theory-based, culturally-tailored, gender-specific, barbershop-based HIV risk reduction intervention for heterosexual African American men ages 18 to 24. The process included developing a community advisory board, selecting a guiding theoretical framework, incorporating community-based participatory research principles, and conducting formative research with African American males, barbers, and barbershop owners. The result was Shape Up: Barbers Building Better Brothers, a 2-day, HIV risk reduction intervention focused on increasing HIV knowledge and condom use and reducing the number of sexual partners. Intervention sessions were facilitated by barbers who used iPads to deliver the content. As a high-risk population, this intervention has great public health significance for the health of African American men and their sexual partners. © 2016 Society for Public Health Education.

Evaluation of a Drowning Prevention Program Based on Testimonial Videos: A Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Pang, Shulan; Schwebel, David C.

2016-01-01

Objective Unintentional drowning is the most common cause of childhood death in rural China. Global intervention efforts offer mixed results regarding the efficacy of educational programs. Methods Using a randomized controlled design, we evaluated a testimonial-based intervention to reduce drowning risk among 280 3rd- and 4th-grade rural Chinese children. Children were randomly assigned to view either testimonials on drowning risk (intervention) or dog-bite risk (control). Safety knowledge and perceived vulnerability were measured by self-report questionnaires, and simulated behaviors in and near water were assessed with a culturally appropriate dollhouse task. Results Children in the intervention group had improved children’s safety knowledge and simulated behaviors but not perceived vulnerability compared with controls. Conclusions The testimonial-based intervention’s efficacy appears promising, as it improved safety knowledge and simulated risk behaviors with water among rural Chinese children. PMID:26546476

Proposal for a new categorization of aseptic processing facilities based on risk assessment scores.

PubMed

Katayama, Hirohito; Toda, Atsushi; Tokunaga, Yuji; Katoh, Shigeo

2008-01-01

Risk assessment of aseptic processing facilities was performed using two published risk assessment tools. Calculated risk scores were compared with experimental test results, including environmental monitoring and media fill run results, in three different types of facilities. The two risk assessment tools used gave a generally similar outcome. However, depending on the tool used, variations were observed in the relative scores between the facilities. For the facility yielding the lowest risk scores, the corresponding experimental test results showed no contamination, indicating that these ordinal testing methods are insufficient to evaluate this kind of facility. A conventional facility having acceptable aseptic processing lines gave relatively high risk scores. The facility showing a rather high risk score demonstrated the usefulness of conventional microbiological test methods. Considering the significant gaps observed in calculated risk scores and in the ordinal microbiological test results between advanced and conventional facilities, we propose a facility categorization based on risk assessment. The most important risk factor in aseptic processing is human intervention. When human intervention is eliminated from the process by advanced hardware design, the aseptic processing facility can be classified into a new risk category that is better suited for assuring sterility based on a new set of criteria rather than on currently used microbiological analysis. To fully benefit from advanced technologies, we propose three risk categories for these aseptic facilities.

Game theory and risk-based leveed river system planning with noncooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Rui; Lund, Jay R.; Madani, Kaveh

2016-01-01

Optimal risk-based levee designs are usually developed for economic efficiency. However, in river systems with multiple levees, the planning and maintenance of different levees are controlled by different agencies or groups. For example, along many rivers, levees on opposite riverbanks constitute a simple leveed river system with each levee designed and controlled separately. Collaborative planning of the two levees can be economically optimal for the whole system. Independent and self-interested landholders on opposite riversides often are willing to separately determine their individual optimal levee plans, resulting in a less efficient leveed river system from an overall society-wide perspective (the tragedy of commons). We apply game theory to simple leveed river system planning where landholders on each riverside independently determine their optimal risk-based levee plans. Outcomes from noncooperative games are analyzed and compared with the overall economically optimal outcome, which minimizes net flood cost system-wide. The system-wide economically optimal solution generally transfers residual flood risk to the lower-valued side of the river, but is often impractical without compensating for flood risk transfer to improve outcomes for all individuals involved. Such compensation can be determined and implemented with landholders' agreements on collaboration to develop an economically optimal plan. By examining iterative multiple-shot noncooperative games with reversible and irreversible decisions, the costs of myopia for the future in making levee planning decisions show the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems to improve decision-making.

Delineating risk zones and evaluation of shelter centres for flood disaster management along the Pahang River Basin, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Isahak, Anizan; Siwar, Chamhuri; Ismail, Shaharuddin M.; Hanafi, Zulkifli; Zainuddin, Mohd S.

2018-01-01

Shelter centres are important locations to safeguard people from helpless situations and are an integral part of disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly for flood DRR. The establishment of shelter centres, and their design based on scientific assessment, is crucial. Yet, they are very much related to the geographic location, socio-economic conditions and the livelihoods of the affected communities. However, many parts of the developing world are still lagging behind in ensuring such scientific design. Considering the flood disaster in 2014 that affected the residents living along the Pahang River Basin, in this study we delineate the communities at risk and evaluate the existing shelter centres to determine how they reduce people’s vulnerability to the risks associated with rural and urban landscapes. We used spatial analysis tools to delineate risk zones and to evaluate existing evacuation systems. A flood disaster risk map was produced to determine which communities are living with risks. Subsequently, the distribution of shelter centres examined whether they are able to support people living at the flood risk zones. These centres were also evaluated using a set of international guidelines for effective disaster shelters. This reveals that the number of shelter centres is not adequate. The designation and designing of shelter centres are not being done scientifically. The maps produced here have a lot of potential to support disaster management decisions, in particular site selection and the prioritisation of centres. The study concludes with a set of guidelines and recommendations for structural and non-structural measures, such as alternative livelihoods and the potential of ecotourism, which may improve the resilience among flood-affected communities; and the decision-making process for the overall flood DRR initiatives.

RiskSOAP: Introducing and applying a methodology of risk self-awareness in road tunnel safety.

PubMed

Chatzimichailidou, Maria Mikela; Dokas, Ioannis M

2016-05-01

Complex socio-technical systems, such as road tunnels, can be designed and developed with more or less elements that can either positively or negatively affect the capability of their agents to recognise imminent threats or vulnerabilities that possibly lead to accidents. This capability is called risk Situation Awareness (SA) provision. Having as a motive the introduction of better tools for designing and developing systems that are self-aware of their vulnerabilities and react to prevent accidents and losses, this paper introduces the Risk Situation Awareness Provision (RiskSOAP) methodology to the field of road tunnel safety, as a means to measure this capability in this kind of systems. The main objective is to test the soundness and the applicability of RiskSOAP to infrastructure, which is advanced in terms of technology, human integration, and minimum number of safety requirements imposed by international bodies. RiskSOAP is applied to a specific road tunnel in Greece and the accompanying indicator is calculated twice, once for the tunnel design as defined by updated European safety standards and once for the 'as-is' tunnel composition, which complies with the necessary safety requirements, but calls for enhancing safety according to what EU and PIARC further suggest. The derived values indicate the extent to which each tunnel version is capable of comprehending its threats and vulnerabilities based on its elements. The former tunnel version seems to be more enhanced both in terms of it risk awareness capability and safety as well. Another interesting finding is that despite the advanced tunnel safety specifications, there is still room for enriching the safe design and maintenance of the road tunnel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing a Web-Based Intervention to Prevent Drug Use among Adolescent Girls

PubMed Central

Schwinn, Traci Marie; Hopkins, Jessica Elizabeth; Schinke, Steven Paul

2014-01-01

Objectives Girls’ rates of drug use have met up with, and in some instances, surpassed boys’ use. Though girls and boys share risk and protective factors associated with drug use, girls also have gender-specific risks. Interventions to prevent girls’ drug use must be tailored to address the dynamics of female adolescence. Methods One such intervention, called RealTeen, is a 9-session, web-based drug abuse prevention program designed to address such gender-specific risk factors associated with young girls’ drug use as depressed mood, low self-esteem, and high levels of perceived stress as well as general drug use risk factors of peer and social influences. Web-based delivery enables girls to interact with the program at their own pace and in a location of their choosing. Implications This paper describes the processes and challenges associated with developing and programming a gender-specific, web-based intervention to prevent drug use among adolescent girls. PMID:26778909

Critical Need for Family-Based, Quasi-Experimental Designs in Integrating Genetic and Social Science Research

PubMed Central

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Turkheimer, Eric; Lichtenstein, Paul

2013-01-01

Researchers have identified environmental risks that predict subsequent psychological and medical problems. Based on these correlational findings, researchers have developed and tested complex developmental models and have examined biological moderating factors (e.g., gene–environment interactions). In this context, we stress the critical need for researchers to use family-based, quasi-experimental designs when trying to integrate genetic and social science research involving environmental variables because these designs rigorously examine causal inferences by testing competing hypotheses. We argue that sibling comparison, offspring of twins or siblings, in vitro fertilization designs, and other genetically informed approaches play a unique role in bridging gaps between basic biological and social science research. We use studies on maternal smoking during pregnancy to exemplify these principles. PMID:23927516

Critical need for family-based, quasi-experimental designs in integrating genetic and social science research.

PubMed

D'Onofrio, Brian M; Lahey, Benjamin B; Turkheimer, Eric; Lichtenstein, Paul

2013-10-01

Researchers have identified environmental risks that predict subsequent psychological and medical problems. Based on these correlational findings, researchers have developed and tested complex developmental models and have examined biological moderating factors (e.g., gene-environment interactions). In this context, we stress the critical need for researchers to use family-based, quasi-experimental designs when trying to integrate genetic and social science research involving environmental variables because these designs rigorously examine causal inferences by testing competing hypotheses. We argue that sibling comparison, offspring of twins or siblings, in vitro fertilization designs, and other genetically informed approaches play a unique role in bridging gaps between basic biological and social science research. We use studies on maternal smoking during pregnancy to exemplify these principles.

Implementation Integrity of Practice-Based Coaching: Preliminary Results from the BEST in CLASS Efficacy Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutherland, Kevin S.; Conroy, Maureen A.; Vo, Abigail; Ladwig, Crystal

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe the practice-based coaching model used in BEST in CLASS, a Tier-2 classroom-based intervention comprised of evidence-based instructional practices designed to prevent and ameliorate the chronic problem behaviors of young children at risk for the development of emotional/behavioral disorders. Following a…

The effect of recent trends in vehicle design on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled, and their projected future relationship with vehicle mass.

PubMed

Wenzel, Tom

2013-07-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT). The current NHTSA analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. LBNL's assessment of the analysis indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in the previous studies, and statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars. The effects three recent trends in vehicle designs and technologies have on societal fatality risk per VMT are estimated, and whether these changes might affect the relationship between vehicle mass and fatality risk in the future. Side airbags are found to reduce fatality risk in cars, but not necessarily light trucks or CUVs/minivans, struck in the side by another light-duty vehicle; reducing the number of fatalities in cars struck in the side is predicted to reduce the estimated detrimental effect of footprint reduction, but increase the detrimental effect of mass reduction, in cars on societal fatality risk. Better alignment of light truck bumpers with those of other vehicles appears to result in a statistically significant reduction in risk imposed on car occupants; however, reducing this type of fatality will likely have little impact on the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, shifting light truck drivers into safer, car-based vehicles, such as sedans, CUVs, and minivans, would result in larger reductions in societal fatalities than expected from even substantial reductions in the masses of light trucks. A strategy of shifting drivers from truck-based to car-based vehicles would reduce fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, while improving societal safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bridging the ';knowing and doing gap' in disaster risk reduction using design and design thinking; Ideation of concepts to improve hazard preparedness and response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Manen, S. M.

2013-12-01

The central goal of disaster risk reduction (DRR) is to reduce the impact and cost of natural hazards, in human, environmental and economic terms. There are numerous approaches that aim to achieve this but recent studies have shown a substantial gap between risk reduction actions taken at national and local levels. The traditional media of the scientist: education, outreach and increasingly community involvement, have been shown to raise levels of awareness and understanding but generate little change in terms of people's actions. This can be attributed to the differences in hazard perception and the relative weight placed on various aspects by scientists, authorities and communities as a result of non-hazard related factors. Therefore DRR, particularly when placed in its social, environmental and economic contexts, is an excellent example of what is termed a ';wicked problem': a problem that is difficult to formulate, where data to base decisions on are incomplete, the stakeholders are many and they hold contradicting views and the consequences of actions on the wider system are unclear. Although both science and design are geared towards problem solving, design, in drawing equally on art and engineering skills, does so in a fundamentally different but complementary way. Neither design nor science will solve the wicked problem that is DRR, but scientists, engineers and designers can improve the current state of disaster risk reduction by tackling aspects of underlying risk factors. This work will present concepts aimed at engaging people in novel and innovative ways with scientific results, with a specific focus on improving hazard preparedness and tangible, rather than abstract, ways of communicating hazard levels. Key considerations include the need to graft onto existing behaviours or innovate on existing products to simplify implementation, the possibility to co-create and connect through design and balancing desirability with technical and economical feasibility. The examples presented are intended to initiate and illustrate discussion regarding the role design and design thinking can play in disaster risk reduction.

Risk adjustment alternatives in paying for behavioral health care under Medicaid.

PubMed Central

Ettner, S L; Frank, R G; McGuire, T G; Hermann, R C

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of various risk adjustment models in behavioral health applications such as setting mental health and substance abuse (MH/SA) capitation payments or overall capitation payments for populations including MH/SA users. DATA SOURCES/STUDY DESIGN: The 1991-93 administrative data from the Michigan Medicaid program were used. We compared mean absolute prediction error for several risk adjustment models and simulated the profits and losses that behavioral health care carve outs and integrated health plans would experience under risk adjustment if they enrolled beneficiaries with a history of MH/SA problems. Models included basic demographic adjustment, Adjusted Diagnostic Groups, Hierarchical Condition Categories, and specifications designed for behavioral health. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Differences in predictive ability among risk adjustment models were small and generally insignificant. Specifications based on relatively few MH/SA diagnostic categories did as well as or better than models controlling for additional variables such as medical diagnoses at predicting MH/SA expenditures among adults. Simulation analyses revealed that among both adults and minors considerable scope remained for behavioral health care carve outs to make profits or losses after risk adjustment based on differential enrollment of severely ill patients. Similarly, integrated health plans have strong financial incentives to avoid MH/SA users even after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Current risk adjustment methodologies do not eliminate the financial incentives for integrated health plans and behavioral health care carve-out plans to avoid high-utilizing patients with psychiatric disorders. PMID:11508640

Environmental risks in the developing world: exposure indicators for evaluating interventions, programmes, and policies.

PubMed

Ezzati, Majid; Utzinger, Jürg; Cairncross, Sandy; Cohen, Aaron J; Singer, Burton H

2005-01-01

Monitoring and empirical evaluation are essential components of evidence based public health policies and programmes. Consequently, there is a growing interest in monitoring of, and indicators for, major environmental health risks, particularly in the developing world. Current large scale data collection efforts are generally disconnected from micro-scale studies in health sciences, which in turn have insufficiently investigated the behavioural and socioeconomic factors that influence exposure. A basic framework is proposed for development of indicators of exposure to environmental health risks that would facilitate the (a) assessment of the health effects of risk factors, (b) design and evaluation of interventions and programmes to deliver the interventions, and (c) appraisal and quantification of inequalities in health effects of risk factors, and benefits of intervention programmes and policies. Specific emphasis is put on the features of environmental risks that should guide the choice of indicators, in particular the interactions of technology, the environment, and human behaviour in determining exposure. The indicators are divided into four categories: (a) access and infrastructure, (b) technology, (c) agents and vectors, and (d) behaviour. The study used water and sanitation, indoor air pollution from solid fuels, urban ambient air pollution, and malaria as illustrative examples for this framework. Organised and systematic indicator selection and monitoring can provide an evidence base for design and implementation of more effective and equitable technological interventions, delivery programmes, and policies for environmental health risks in resource poor settings.

Lunar Industry & Research Base Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lysenko, J.; Kaliapin, M.; Osinovyy, G.

2017-09-01

Currently, all main space industry players, such as Europe, USA, Russia, China, etc., are looking back again at the idea of Moon exploration building there a manned lunar base. Alongside with other world spacefaring nations, Yuzhnoye State Design Office with its long-time development experience, technological and intellectual potential, organized its own conceptual work on development of the Lunar Industry & Research Base. In the frames of conceptual project "Lunar Industrial & Research Base" were formed its appearance, preliminary configuration and infrastructure at different stages of operation, trajectory and flight scheme to the Moon, as well as terms of the project's realization, and main technical characteristics of the systems under development, such as space transportation system for crew and cargo delivery to lunar surface and return to Earth, standardized designs of lunar modules, lunar surface vehicles, etc. The "Lunar Industrial & Research Base" project's preliminary risk assessment has shown a high value of its overall risk due to the lack of reliable information about the Moon, technical risks, long-term development of its elements, very high financial costs and dependence on state support. This points to the fact that it is reasonable to create such a global project in cooperation with other countries. International cooperation will expand the capabilities of any nation, reduce risks and increase the success probability of automated or manned space missions. It is necessary to create and bring into operation practical mechanisms for long-term space exploration on a global scale. One of the ways to do this is to create a multinational agency which would include both state enterprises and private companies.

The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

2012-04-01

The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

Influence of obesity assessments on cardiometabolic risks in African and European American women.

PubMed

Brandon, L Jerome; Proctor, Larry; Cole, Calvin L

2014-01-01

African American women (AAW) have increased odds of developing cardiometabolic (CME) risks and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) compared with European American women (EAW). The influence of obesity on other CME risks and the CVD disparity is unclear. The purpose of our study was to develop a CME index and evaluate the obesity and CME risk index relationships based on race. A comparative research design was employed in our study as 213 women (132 AAW; 81 EAW) from the Louisiana Delta were evaluated for CME risk clustering patterns by race, based on BMI, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry % body fat and waist conference. Fasting glucose, triglyceride (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were the measured CME risks. In summary, when the CME indexes were evaluated by obesity classification categories the ones that were CVD risk or near risk for the AAW were SBP and TG. The trend of CME index risk for the EAW was SBP and glucose. The stepwise regression equations indicate that HDL-C and SBP/DBP were the best indicators of the effects of obesity on CME risks in AAW and that SBP/DBP and glucose were the best indicators of CME risks in EAW. Our results indicate that CME risks as evaluated based on obesity categories are different for AAW than for EAW.

Assessing and managing breast cancer risk: clinicians' current practice and future needs.

PubMed

Collins, Ian M; Steel, Emma; Mann, G Bruce; Emery, Jon D; Bickerstaffe, Adrian; Trainer, Alison; Butow, Phyllis; Pirotta, Marie; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cuzick, Jack; Hopper, John; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Keogh, Louise A

2014-10-01

Decision support tools for the assessment and management of breast cancer risk may improve uptake of prevention strategies. End-user input in the design of such tools is critical to increase clinical use. Before developing such a computerized tool, we examined clinicians' practice and future needs. Twelve breast surgeons, 12 primary care physicians and 5 practice nurses participated in 4 focus groups. These were recorded, coded, and analyzed to identify key themes. Participants identified difficulties assessing risk, including a lack of available tools to standardize practice. Most expressed confidence identifying women at potentially high risk, but not moderate risk. Participants felt a tool could especially reassure young women at average risk. Desirable features included: evidence-based, accessible (e.g. web-based), and displaying absolute (not relative) risks in multiple formats. The potential to create anxiety was a concern. Development of future tools should address these issues to optimize translation of knowledge into clinical practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of metals in road-deposited sediment along an urban-rural gradient.

PubMed

Zhao, Hongtao; Li, Xuyong

2013-03-01

We applied the traditional risk assessment methods originally designed for soils and river sediments to evaluation of risk associated with metals in road-deposited sediment (RDS) along an urban-rural gradient that included central urban (UCA), urban village (UVA), central suburban county (CSA), rural town (RTA), and rural village (RVA) areas in the Beijing metropolitan region. A new indicator RI(RDS) was developed which integrated the RDS characteristics of mobility, grain size and amount with the potential ecological risk index. The risk associated with metals in RDS in urban areas was generally higher than that in rural areas based on the assessment using traditional methods, but the risk was higher in urban and rural village areas than the areas with higher administration units based on the indicator RI(RDS). These findings implied that RDS characteristics variation with the urban-rural gradient must be considered in metal risk assessment and RDS washoff pollution control. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Travel abroad increases sexual health risk-taking among Swedish youth: a population-based study using a case-crossover strategy.

PubMed

Sundbeck, Mats; Agardh, Anette; Östergren, Per-Olof

2017-01-01

The fact that youth take sexual risks when they are abroad have been shown in previous studies. However, it is not known if they increased their sexual risk-taking when travelling abroad, compared to the stay in their homeland. To assess whether Swedish youth increased their individual sexual risk behaviour, defined as having a casual sex partner, when travelling abroad and to examine possible factors that may be associated with increased risk-taking abroad. In 2013, a population-based sample of 2189 Swedes, 18-29 years, was assessed by a questionnaire (45% response rate). Sexuality, duration of travel, parents' country of origin, mental health, heavy episodic drinking (HED), use of illicit drugs, and socio-demographic background were assessed. Increased risk of casual sex in relation to time spent abroad vs. time spent in Sweden was analysed by a variant of case-crossover design. Factors that could be associated with increased risk of casual sex in Sweden and abroad, separately, were analysed by logistic regression.

Selling sex in unsafe spaces: sex work risk environments in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The risk environment framework provides a valuable but under-utilised heuristic for understanding environmental vulnerability to HIV and other sexually transmitted infections among female sex workers. Brothels have been shown to be safer than street-based sex work, with higher rates of consistent condom use and lower HIV prevalence. While entertainment venues are also assumed to be safer than street-based sex work, few studies have examined environmental influences on vulnerability to HIV in this context. Methods As part of the Young Women's Health Study, a prospective observational study of young women (15-29 years) engaged in sex work in Phnom Penh, we conducted in-depth interviews (n = 33) to explore vulnerability to HIV/STI and related harms. Interviews were conducted in Khmer by trained interviewers, transcribed and translated into English and analysed for thematic content. Results The intensification of anti-prostitution and anti-trafficking efforts in Cambodia has increased the number of women working in entertainment venues and on the street. Our results confirm that street-based sex work places women at risk of HIV/STI infection and identify significant environmental risks related to entertainment-based sex work, including limited access to condoms and alcohol-related intoxication. Our data also indicate that exposure to violence and interactions with the police are mediated by the settings in which sex is sold. In particular, transacting sex in environments such as guest houses where there is little or no oversight in the form of peer or managerial support or protection, may increase vulnerability to HIV/STI. Conclusions Entertainment venues may also provide a high risk environment for sex work. Our results indicate that strategies designed to address HIV prevention among brothel-based FSWs in Cambodia have not translated well to street and entertainment-based sex work venues in which increasing numbers of women are working. There is an urgent need for targeted interventions, supported by legal and policy reforms, designed to reduce the environmental risks of sex work in these settings. Future research should seek to investigate sex work venues as risk environments, explore the role of different business models in mediating these environments, and identify and quantify exposure to risk in different occupational settings. PMID:22099449

Design and Demonstration of Emergency Control Modes for Enhanced Engine Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Guo, Ten-Huei

2013-01-01

A design concept is presented for developing control modes that enhance aircraft engine performance during emergency flight scenarios. The benefits of increased engine performance to overall vehicle survivability during these situations may outweigh the accompanied elevated risk of engine failure. The objective involves building control logic that can consistently increase engine performance beyond designed maximum levels based on an allowable heightened probability of failure. This concept is applied to two previously developed control modes: an overthrust mode that increases maximum engine thrust output and a faster response mode that improves thrust response to dynamic throttle commands. This paper describes the redesign of these control modes and presents simulation results demonstrating both enhanced engine performance and robust maintenance of the desired elevated risk level.

Group Contingencies to Increase School and Project Attendance in At-Risk Adolescents: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costello, Karen M.; Smyth, Sinéad

2017-01-01

The current study employed a group contingency in order to increase school and project attendance in a group of 10 at-risk male adolescents. The participants were already attending a youth diversion project designed to reduce criminal and antisocial behaviors. The group contingency was based on the fantasy football model (an interactive, virtual…

Late Talkers: A Population-Based Study of Risk Factors and School Readiness Consequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammer, Carol Scheffner; Morgan, Paul; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne; Bitetti, Dana; Maczuga, Steve

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study was designed to (a) identify sociodemographic, pregnancy and birth, family health, and parenting and child care risk factors for being a late talker at 24 months of age; (b) determine whether late talkers continue to have low vocabulary at 48 months; and (c) investigate whether being a late talker plays a unique role in…

Parent Training with High-Risk Immigrant Chinese Families: A Pilot Group Randomized Trial Yielding Practice-Based Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lau, Anna S.; Fung, Joey J.; Ho, Lorinda Y.; Liu, Lisa L.; Gudino, Omar G.

2011-01-01

We studied the efficacy and implementation outcomes of a culturally responsive parent training (PT) program. Fifty-four Chinese American parents participated in a wait-list controlled group randomized trial (32 immediate treatment, 22 delayed treatment) of a 14-week intervention designed to address the needs of high-risk immigrant families.…

Public Scholarship within an Urban School District: A Community and University Partnership Approach to Service-Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Booker, Angela; Montgomery-Block, Kindra; Scott, Zenae; Reyes, bel; Onyewuenyi, Adaurennaya

2011-01-01

This article reports on a collaborative partnership, based in principles of public scholarship and designed to serve local, at-risk or high-risk youth. The program is a six-week summer service-learning initiative in the Sacramento, California, area developed for transitioning 9th grade students through a multi-agency partnership. The project…

Learning to Appreciate At-Risk Students: Challenging the Beliefs and Attitudes of Teachers and Administrators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calabrese, Raymond L.; Hummel, Crystal; San Martin, Teresa

2007-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of at-risk students in a rural district in Midwestern USA. Design/methodology/approach: This field-based research study used a qualitative embedded case study of a middle and high school informed by an appreciative inquiry theoretical research perspective to identify a positive core of…

Developing Educational Materials about Risks on Social Network Sites: A Design Based Research Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vanderhoven, Ellen; Schellens, Tammy; Vanderlinde, Ruben; Valcke, Martin

2016-01-01

Nearly all of today's Western teenagers have a profile on a social network site (SNS). As many risks have been reported, researchers and governments have emphasized the role of school education to teach teenagers how to deal safely with SNSs. However, little is known about the specific characteristics which would make interventions effective.…

Development and Validation of ENGAGE[TM] Grades 6-9. ACT Research Report Series, 2011-1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casillas, Alex; Allen, Jeff; Kuo, Yi-Lung; Pappas, Susan; Hanson, Mary Ann; Robbins, Steve

2011-01-01

This report details the development and validation of the ENGAGE Grades 6-9, a measure of academic behavior designed to determine students' levels of academic risk. The work presented in this report is part of a comprehensive research program of educational risk assessment based on key academic behavior predictors (also known in the literature as…

The Microgenetic Emergence of Cooperative Play in 6-Year-Olds Developmentally At-Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Aalsvoort, Geerdina M.; van der Leeden, Rien

2009-01-01

Cooperative play was investigated by a controlled pre/post-test intervention design with 28 dyads of 6-year-old students developmentally at-risk. Selection was based upon cut-off scores on a language development test and a nonverbal IQ test, and same-sex pairs were matched within classrooms. Co-variables were: socio economic status, free play time…

Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2013. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). Surveillance Summaries. Volume 63, Number SS-4

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Shanklin, Shari L.; Flint, Katherine H.; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; Olsen, Emily O'Malley; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Whittle, Lisa; Taylor, Eboni; Demissie, Zewditu; Brener, Nancy; Thornton, Jemekia; Moore, John; Zaza, Stephanie

2014-01-01

Problem: Priority health-risk behaviors contribute to the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among youth and adults. Population-based data on these behaviors at the national, state, and local levels can help monitor the effectiveness of public health interventions designed to protect and promote the health of youth nationwide. Reporting…

Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2015. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Surveillance Summaries. Volume 65, Number 6

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kann, Laura; McManus, Tim; Harris, William A.; Shanklin, Shari L.; Flint, Katherine H.; Hawkins, Joseph; Queen, Barbara; Lowry, Richard; Olsen, Emily O'Malley; Chyen, David; Whittle, Lisa; Thornton, Jemekia; Lim, Connie; Yamakawa, Yoshimi; Brener, Nancy; Zaza, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Problem: Priority health-risk behaviors contribute to the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among youth and adults. Population-based data on these behaviors at the national, state, and local levels can help monitor the effectiveness of public health interventions designed to protect and promote the health of youth nationwide. Reporting…

Risk of Mother-Reported Child Abuse in the First 3 Years of Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Windham, Amy M.; Rosenberg, Leon; Fuddy, Loretta; McFarlane, Elizabeth; Sia, Calvin; Duggan, Anne K

2004-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this research was to investigate, within an at-risk population, parent and child characteristics associated with a mother's self-reports of severe physical assault and assault on the self-esteem of the child in the first 3 years of life. Design: The study population consisted of a community-based sample of mothers of…

Integrity management of offshore structures and its implication on computation of structural action effects and resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moan, T.

2017-12-01

An overview of integrity management of offshore structures, with emphasis on the oil and gas energy sector, is given. Based on relevant accident experiences and means to control the associated risks, accidents are categorized from a technical-physical as well as human and organizational point of view. Structural risk relates to extreme actions as well as structural degradation. Risk mitigation measures, including adequate design criteria, inspection, repair and maintenance as well as quality assurance and control of engineering processes, are briefly outlined. The current status of risk and reliability methodology to aid decisions in the integrity management is briefly reviewed. Finally, the need to balance the uncertainties in data, methods and computational efforts and the cautious use and quality assurance and control in applying high fidelity methods to avoid human errors, is emphasized, and with a plea to develop both high fidelity as well as efficient, simplified methods for design.

Comparative Study of Barotrauma Risk during Fish Passage through Kaplan Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richmond, Marshall C.; Romero-Gomez, Pedro; Serkowski, John A.

Rapid pressure changes in hydroelectric turbine flows can cause barotrauma that can be hazardous to the passage of fish, in particular migratory juvenile salmonids. Although numerous laboratory tests have evaluated the effect of rapid decompression in fish species of relevance, numerical modeling studies offer the advantage of predicting, for new turbine designs, the potential risks of mortality and injury from rapid pressure change during turbine passage. However, rapid pressure change is only one of several hydraulic risks encountered by fish during turbine passage in addition to blade strike, shear, and turbulence. To better understand the role of rapid pressure changes,more » the present work focuses on the application of a computational fluid dynamics based method for evaluating the risk of pressure-related mortality to fish passing through an early 1960s era original hydroelectric Kaplan turbine at Wanapum Dam (Columbia River, Washington), and a modern advanced Kaplan turbine installed in 2005. The results show that the modeling approach acceptably reproduced the nadir pressure distributions compared to field data previously collected at the site using an autonomous sensor. Our findings show that the new advanced-design unit performs better, in terms of reduced barotrauma risk to fish from exposure to low pressures, than the original turbine unit. The outcomes allow for comparative analyses of turbine designs and operations prior to installation, an advantage that can potentially be integrated in the process of designing new turbine units to achieve superior environmental performance. Overall, the results show that modern turbine designs can achieve the multiple objectives of increasing power generation, lowering cavitation potential, and reducing barotrauma risks to passing fish.« less

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

Next Steps in Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease: Rationale for and Design of the ECAD Trial.

PubMed

Domanski, Michael J; Fuster, Valentin; Diaz-Mitoma, Francisco; Grundy, Scott; Lloyd-Jones, Donald; Mamdani, Muhammad; Roberts, Robin; Thorpe, Kevin; Hall, Judith; Udell, Jacob A; Farkouh, Michael E

2015-10-20

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events, including coronary heart disease and stroke, are the most frequent cause of death and major disability in the world. Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association primary prevention guidelines are mainly on the basis of randomized controlled trials of statin-based low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering therapy for primary prevention of ASCVD events. Despite the clear demonstration of statin-based LDL-C lowering, substantial 10-year and lifetime risks of incident ASCVD continue. Although the 10-year risk is low in young and middle-aged adults who would not be treated according to current guidelines, they ultimately account for most incident ASCVD. If statin-based LDL-C lowering were initiated in them at an age before complex coronary plaques are common in the population, a substantial reduction in lifetime risk of incident coronary heart disease might be achieved. We examine this hypothesis and introduce the design of a currently recruiting trial to address it. (Eliminate Coronary Artery Disease [ECAD]; NCT02245087). Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deployment of e-health services - a business model engineering strategy.

PubMed

Kijl, Björn; Nieuwenhuis, Lambert J M; Huis in 't Veld, Rianne M H A; Hermens, Hermie J; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam M R

2010-01-01

We designed a business model for deploying a myofeedback-based teletreatment service. An iterative and combined qualitative and quantitative action design approach was used for developing the business model and the related value network. Insights from surveys, desk research, expert interviews, workshops and quantitative modelling were combined to produce the first business model and then to refine it in three design cycles. The business model engineering strategy provided important insights which led to an improved, more viable and feasible business model and related value network design. Based on this experience, we conclude that the process of early stage business model engineering reduces risk and produces substantial savings in costs and resources related to service deployment.

Alcohol demand and risk preference.

PubMed

Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

2008-12-01

Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6-8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use.

A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila

2012-01-01

The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

Development and Implementation of a Design Metric for Systems Containing Long-Term Fluid Loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steele, John W.

2016-01-01

John Steele, a chemist and technical fellow from United Technologies Corporation, provided a water quality module to assist engineers and scientists with a metric tool to evaluate risks associated with the design of space systems with fluid loops. This design metric is a methodical, quantitative, lessons-learned based means to evaluate the robustness of a long-term fluid loop system design. The tool was developed by a cross-section of engineering disciplines who had decades of experience and problem resolution.

Knowledge-based environment for optical system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, R. Barry

1991-01-01

Optical systems are extensively utilized by industry government and military organizations. The conceptual design engineering design fabrication and testing of these systems presently requires significant time typically on the order of 3-5 years. The Knowledge-Based Environment for Optical System Design (KB-OSD) Program has as its principal objectives the development of a methodology and tool(s) that will make a notable reduction in the development time of optical system projects reduce technical risk and overall cost. KB-OSD can be considered as a computer-based optical design associate for system engineers and design engineers. By utilizing artificial intelligence technology coupled with extensive design/evaluation computer application programs and knowledge bases the KB-OSD will provide the user with assistance and guidance to accomplish such activities as (i) develop system level and hardware level requirements from mission requirements (ii) formulate conceptual designs (iii) construct a statement of work for an RFP (iv) develop engineering level designs (v) evaluate an existing design and (vi) explore the sensitivity of a system to changing scenarios. The KB-OSD comprises a variety of computer platforms including a Stardent Titan supercomputer numerous design programs (lens design coating design thermal materials structural atmospherics etc. ) data bases and heuristic knowledge bases. An important element of the KB-OSD Program is the inclusion of the knowledge of individual experts in various areas of optics and optical system engineering. This knowledge is obtained by KB-OSD knowledge engineers performing

Multi-mode reliability-based design of horizontal curves.

PubMed

Essa, Mohamed; Sayed, Tarek; Hussein, Mohamed

2016-08-01

Recently, reliability analysis has been advocated as an effective approach to account for uncertainty in the geometric design process and to evaluate the risk associated with a particular design. In this approach, a risk measure (e.g. probability of noncompliance) is calculated to represent the probability that a specific design would not meet standard requirements. The majority of previous applications of reliability analysis in geometric design focused on evaluating the probability of noncompliance for only one mode of noncompliance such as insufficient sight distance. However, in many design situations, more than one mode of noncompliance may be present (e.g. insufficient sight distance and vehicle skidding at horizontal curves). In these situations, utilizing a multi-mode reliability approach that considers more than one failure (noncompliance) mode is required. The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the application of multi-mode (system) reliability analysis to the design of horizontal curves. The process is demonstrated by a case study of Sea-to-Sky Highway located between Vancouver and Whistler, in southern British Columbia, Canada. Two noncompliance modes were considered: insufficient sight distance and vehicle skidding. The results show the importance of accounting for several noncompliance modes in the reliability model. The system reliability concept could be used in future studies to calibrate the design of various design elements in order to achieve consistent safety levels based on all possible modes of noncompliance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nephrogenic systemic fibrosis and class labeling of gadolinium-based contrast agents by the Food and Drug Administration.

PubMed

Yang, Lucie; Krefting, Ira; Gorovets, Alex; Marzella, Louis; Kaiser, James; Boucher, Robert; Rieves, Dwaine

2012-10-01

In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration requested that manufacturers of all approved gadolinium-based contrast agents (GBCAs), drugs widely used in magnetic resonance imaging, use nearly identical text in their product labeling to describe the risk of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis (NSF). Accumulating information about NSF risks led to revision of the labeling text for all of these drugs in 2010. The present report summarizes the basis and purpose of this class-labeling approach and describes some of the related challenges, given the evolutionary nature of the NSF risk evidence. The class-labeling approach for presentation of product risk is designed to decrease the occurrence of NSF and to enhance the safe use of GBCAs in radiologic practice. © RSNA, 2012.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

A Web-Based Psychoeducational Intervention for Adolescent Depression: Design and Development of MoodHwb

PubMed Central

Thapar, Anita; Rice, Frances; Beeching, Harriet; Cichosz, Rachel; Mars, Becky; Smith, Daniel J; Merry, Sally; Stallard, Paul; Jones, Ian; Thapar, Ajay K; Simpson, Sharon A

2018-01-01

Background Depression is common in adolescence and leads to distress and impairment in individuals, families and carers. Treatment and prevention guidelines highlight the key role of information and evidence-based psychosocial interventions not only for individuals but also for their families and carers. Engaging young people in prevention and early intervention programs is a challenge, and early treatment and prevention of adolescent depression is a major public health concern. There has been growing interest in psychoeducational interventions to provide accurate information about health issues and to enhance and develop self-management skills. However, for adolescents with, or at high risk of depression, there is a lack of engaging Web-based psychoeducation programs that have been developed with user input and in line with research guidelines and targeted at both the individual and their family or carer. There are also few studies published on the process of development of Web-based psychoeducational interventions. Objective The aim of this study was to describe the process underlying the design and development of MoodHwb (HwbHwyliau in Welsh): a Web-based psychoeducation multimedia program for young people with, or at high risk of, depression and their families, carers, friends, and professionals. Methods The initial prototype was informed by (1) a systematic review of psychoeducational interventions for adolescent depression; (2) findings from semistructured interviews and focus groups conducted with adolescents (with depressive symptoms or at high risk), parents or carers, and professionals working with young people; and (3) workshops and discussions with a multimedia company and experts (in clinical, research, and multimedia work). Twelve interviews were completed (four each with young people, parents or carers, and professionals) and six focus groups (three with young people, one with parents and carers, one with professionals, and one with academics). Results Key themes from the interviews and focus groups were: aims of the program, design and content issues, and integration and context of the program. The prototype was designed to be person-centered, multiplatform, engaging, interactive, and bilingual. It included mood-monitoring and goal-setting components and was available as a Web-based program and an app for mobile technologies. Conclusions MoodHwb is a Web-based psychoeducational intervention developed for young people with, or at high risk of, depression and their families and carers. It was developed with user input using qualitative methods as well as user-centered design and educational and psychological theory. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of the program in a randomized controlled trial. If found to be effective, it could be implemented in health, education, youth and social services, and charities, to not only help young people but also families, carers, friends, and professionals involved in their care. PMID:29449202

Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

PubMed

Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2014-05-01

Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

78 FR 16792 - Designation of Areas for Air Quality Planning Purposes; State of California; Imperial Valley...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-19

... (see, e.g., the PM 10 area designations in 40 CFR 81.305 for Coso Junction planning area, Owens Valley..., this action: Is not ``significant regulatory actions'' subject to review by the Office of Management..., 1999); Is not economically significant regulatory actions based on health or safety risks subject to...

78 FR 50070 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-16

..., referral for services, and service follow-up of youth at risk. \\1\\ The evaluation as designed includes four... grantees, the research questions outlined in the evaluation statement of work, and the state of the knowledge base in the field of suicide prevention. As such, while the evaluation design does not currently...

Finnish Prenatal Study of Autism and Autism Spectrum Disorders (FIPS-A): Overview and Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lampi, Katja M.; Banerjee, P. Nina; Gissler, Mika; Hinkka-Yli-Salomaki, Susanna; Huttunen, Jukka; Kulmala, Ulla; Lindroos, Jarna; Niemela, Solja; Rihko, Maria; Ristkari, Terja; Saanakorpi, Kristiina; Sarlin, Tanja; Sillanmaki, Lauri; McKeague, Ian W.; Surcel, Helja-Marja; Helenius, Hans; Brown, Alan S.; Sourander, Andre

2011-01-01

This article presents an overview of the Finnish Prenatal Study of Autism and Autism Spectrum Disorders (FIPS-A), a new study designed to examine the relationship between prenatal serologic factors, mediating and moderating developmental antecedents, and risk of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). The FIPS-A is based on register linkages between…

Designing a Weight Gain Prevention Trial for Young Adults: The CHOICES Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lytle, Leslie A.; Moe, Stacey G.; Nanney, M. Susie; Laska, Melissa N.; Linde, Jennifer A.; Petrich, Christine A.; Sevcik, Sarah M.

2014-01-01

Background: Young adults are at risk for weight gain. Little is known about how to design weight control programs to meet the needs of young adults and few theory-based interventions have been evaluated in a randomized control trial. The Choosing Healthy Options in College Environments and Settings (CHOICES) study was funded to create a…

A Field Programmable Gate Array Based Software Defined Radio Design for the Space Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

CHANGING PARAMETERS ......................................................................97 APPENDIX B. ADDITIONAL APPLICATIONS ...Professor Frank Kragh was inspirational and always provided keen insight into the mathematics of signal analysis. Special thanks to Professor...and risk involved with launching a new satellite. [2] An FPGA design with potential for space applications was presented in [3]. This initial SDR

Constructing Model of Relationship among Behaviors and Injuries to Products Based on Large Scale Text Data on Injuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomori, Koji; Kitamura, Koji; Motomura, Yoichi; Nishida, Yoshifumi; Yamanaka, Tatsuhiro; Komatsubara, Akinori

In Japan, childhood injury prevention is urgent issue. Safety measures through creating knowledge of injury data are essential for preventing childhood injuries. Especially the injury prevention approach by product modification is very important. The risk assessment is one of the most fundamental methods to design safety products. The conventional risk assessment has been carried out subjectively because product makers have poor data on injuries. This paper deals with evidence-based risk assessment, in which artificial intelligence technologies are strongly needed. This paper describes a new method of foreseeing usage of products, which is the first step of the evidence-based risk assessment, and presents a retrieval system of injury data. The system enables a product designer to foresee how children use a product and which types of injuries occur due to the product in daily environment. The developed system consists of large scale injury data, text mining technology and probabilistic modeling technology. Large scale text data on childhood injuries was collected from medical institutions by an injury surveillance system. Types of behaviors to a product were derived from the injury text data using text mining technology. The relationship among products, types of behaviors, types of injuries and characteristics of children was modeled by Bayesian Network. The fundamental functions of the developed system and examples of new findings obtained by the system are reported in this paper.

Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Simple Search-Based Web Tool for Local Sea Level Rise Projections, Coastal Flood Risk Forecasts, and Inundation Exposure Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauss, B.; Dodson, D.; Kulp, S. A.; Rizza, D. H.

2016-12-01

Surging Seas Risk Finder (riskfinder.org) is an online tool for accessing extensive local projections and analysis of sea level rise; coastal floods; and land, populations, contamination sources, and infrastructure and other assets that may be exposed to inundation. Risk Finder was first published in 2013 for Florida, New York and New Jersey, expanding to all states in the contiguous U.S. by 2016, when a major new version of the tool was released with a completely new interface. The revised tool was informed by hundreds of survey responses from and conversations with planners, local officials and other coastal stakeholders, plus consideration of modern best practices for responsive web design and user interfaces, and social science-based principles for science communication. Overarching design principles include simplicity and ease of navigation, leading to a landing page with Google-like sparsity and focus on search, and to an architecture based on search, so that each coastal zip code, city, county, state or other place type has its own webpage gathering all relevant analysis in modular, scrollable units. Millions of users have visited the Surging Seas suite of tools to date, and downloaded thousands of files, for stated purposes ranging from planning to business to education to personal decisions; and from institutions ranging from local to federal government agencies, to businesses, to NGOs, and to academia.

The Harmonium Project: A Macrosystemic Approach to Empowering Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laveman, Larry

2000-01-01

Discusses Harmonium Inc., a community-based agency that counsels adolescents who are at moderate to high risk of developmental defeat because their behavior either threatens their health or jeopardizes their future. It is designed to assist these adolescents using a collaborative, strength-based counseling model built in the integrative capacity…

The Effects of "Brain Gym" as a General Education Intervention: Improving Academic Performance and Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nussbaum, Sherri S.

2010-01-01

"Individuals with Disabilities Education Act" ("IDEA") and "No Child Left Behind" ("NCLB") now mandate that all at-risk students receive empirical, scientific research-based interventions. "Brain Gym" is a movement-based program designed to address a diverse range of students' academic and behavior…

Social marketing-based communications to integrate and support the HEALTHY study intervention

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The HEALTHY study was a randomized, controlled, multicenter, middle school-based, multifaceted intervention designed to reduce risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes. The study randomized 42 middle schools to intervention or control, and followed students from the sixth to the eighth gr...

A Psychoeducational School-Based Group Intervention for Socially Anxious Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vassilopoulos, Stephanos P.; Brouzos, Andreas; Damer, Diana E.; Mellou, Angeliki; Mitropoulou, Alexandra

2013-01-01

This study investigated the impact of a psychoeducational group for social anxiety aimed at elementary children. An 8-week psychoeducational program based on empirically validated risk factors was designed. Interventions included cognitive restructuring, anxiety management techniques, and social skills training. Pre-and posttest data from 3 groups…

Diet and Colorectal Cancer Risk: Evaluation of a Nutrition Education Leaflet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dyer, K. J.; Fearon, K. C. H.; Buckner, K.; Richardson, R. A.

2005-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the effect of a needs-based, nutrition education leaflet on nutritional knowledge. Design: Comparison of nutritional knowledge levels before and after exposure to a nutrition education leaflet. Setting: A regional colorectal out-patient clinic in Edinburgh. Method: A nutrition education leaflet, based on an earlier…

Antecedent-Based Interventions for Young Children at Risk for Emotional and Behavioral Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Kristy L.; Scott, Terrance M.

2009-01-01

Following descriptive functional assessment procedures, a brief structural analysis was used to confirm the hypothesized antecedent conditions that preceded problem behavior across three children enrolled in Head Start classrooms. A withdrawal design investigated the effectiveness of antecedent-based interventions to reduce disruptive behaviors…

Reviewing Evidence-Based Practice for Pupils with Dyslexia and Literacy Difficulties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Yvonne; Stuart, Morag

2013-01-01

There is now a strong evidence base from theory and research providing a "template" to inform practice at Wave 2, guiding the design and implementation of time-limited effective early intervention programmes for pupils identified as "at risk" of reading difficulties following initial literacy instruction (Rose, 2009). In…

The Adolescent Smoking and Health Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutherland, Mary; And Others

This project was designed to specifically apply a health planning management system to a school based health education risk reduction program. Additionally, the Adolescent Smoking and Alcohol Project assisted youth in making informed decisions about the use/abuse of alcohol and cigarettes. Program components included a related knowledge base;…

The Invisible Mirror: In-Home Family Therapy and Supervision.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zarski, John J.; And Others

1991-01-01

Discusses home-based family therapy intervention programs, designed as a preventive strategy for multiproblem, at-risk families in mental health agencies. Maintains that a review of the literature reveals little information on clinical supervision, which is a major component of home-based family intervention. Focuses on providing an alternative…

A risk-based coverage model for video surveillance camera control optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongzhou; Du, Zhiguo; Zhao, Xingtao; Li, Peiyue; Li, Dehua

2015-12-01

Visual surveillance system for law enforcement or police case investigation is different from traditional application, for it is designed to monitor pedestrians, vehicles or potential accidents. Visual surveillance risk is defined as uncertainty of visual information of targets and events monitored in present work and risk entropy is introduced to modeling the requirement of police surveillance task on quality and quantity of vide information. the prosed coverage model is applied to calculate the preset FoV position of PTZ camera.

Design Tool Using a New Optimization Method Based on a Stochastic Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Katsuhito; Ishikawa, Yoshio

Conventional optimization methods are based on a deterministic approach since their purpose is to find out an exact solution. However, such methods have initial condition dependence and the risk of falling into local solution. In this paper, we propose a new optimization method based on the concept of path integrals used in quantum mechanics. The method obtains a solution as an expected value (stochastic average) using a stochastic process. The advantages of this method are that it is not affected by initial conditions and does not require techniques based on experiences. We applied the new optimization method to a hang glider design. In this problem, both the hang glider design and its flight trajectory were optimized. The numerical calculation results prove that performance of the method is sufficient for practical use.

A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

PubMed Central

Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

Modeling Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, H.; Schubert, J. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Luke, A.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.

2017-12-01

Coastal cities around the world are built on lowland topography adjacent to coastal embayments and river estuaries, where multiple factors threaten increasing flood hazards (e.g. sea level rise and river flooding). Quantitative risk assessment is required for administration of flood insurance programs and the design of cost-effective flood risk reduction measures. This demands a characterization of extreme water levels such as 100 and 500 year return period events. Furthermore, hydrodynamic flood models are routinely used to characterize localized flood level intensities (i.e., local depth and velocity) based on boundary forcing sampled from extreme value distributions. For example, extreme flood discharges in the U.S. are estimated from measured flood peaks using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. However, configuring hydrodynamic models for coastal embayments is challenging because of compound extreme flood events: events caused by a combination of extreme sea levels, extreme river discharges, and possibly other factors such as extreme waves and precipitation causing pluvial flooding in urban developments. Here, we present an approach for flood risk assessment that coordinates multivariate extreme analysis with hydrodynamic modeling of coastal embayments. First, we evaluate the significance of correlation structure between terrestrial freshwater inflow and oceanic variables; second, this correlation structure is described using copula functions in unit joint probability domain; and third, we choose a series of compound design scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling based on their occurrence likelihood. The design scenarios include the most likely compound event (with the highest joint probability density), preferred marginal scenario and reproduced time series of ensembles based on Monte Carlo sampling of bivariate hazard domain. The comparison between resulting extreme water dynamics under the compound hazard scenarios explained above provides an insight to the strengths/weaknesses of each approach and helps modelers choose the appropriate scenario that best fit to the needs of their project. The proposed risk assessment approach can help flood hazard modeling practitioners achieve a more reliable estimate of risk, by cautiously reducing the dimensionality of the hazard analysis.

Web-Based Study of Risk Factors for Pain Exacerbation in Osteoarthritis of the Knee (SPARK-Web): Design and Rationale

PubMed Central

Metcalf, Ben; Zhang, Yuqing; Bennell, Kim; March, Lyn; Hunter, David J

2015-01-01

Background Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most frequent cause of limited mobility and diminished quality of life. Pain is the main symptom that drives individuals with knee OA to seek medical care and a recognized antecedent to disability and eventually joint replacement. Many persons with symptomatic knee OA experience recurrent pain exacerbations. Knowledge and clarification of risk factors for pain exacerbation may allow those affected to minimize reoccurrence of these episodes. Objective The aim of this study is to use a Web-based case-crossover design to identify risk factors for knee pain exacerbations in persons with symptomatic knee OA. Methods Web-based case-crossover design is used to study persons with symptomatic knee OA. Participants with knee pain and radiographic knee OA will be recruited and followed for 90 days. Participants will complete an online questionnaire at the baseline and every 10 days thereafter (totaling up to 10 control-period questionnaires); participants will also be asked to report online when they experience an episode of increased knee pain. Pain exacerbation will be defined as an increase in knee pain severity of two points from baseline on a numeric rating scale (NRS 0-10). Physical activity, footwear, knee injury, medication use, climate, psychological factors, and their possible interactions will be assessed as potential triggers for pain exacerbation using conditional logistic regression models. Results This project has been funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). The enrollment for the study has started. So far, 343 participants have been enrolled. The study is expected to be finished in October 2015. Conclusions This study will identify risk factors for pain exacerbations in knee OA. The identification and possible modification/elimination of such risk factors will help to prevent the reoccurrence of pain exacerbation episodes and therefore improve knee OA management. PMID:26156210

Motivation-based intervention to promote colonoscopy screening: An integration of a fear management model and motivational interviewing

PubMed Central

Pengchit, Watcharaporn; Walters, Scott T.; Simmons, Rebecca G.; Kohlmann, Wendy; Burt, Randall W.; Schwartz, Marc D.; Kinney, Anita Y.

2011-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates have been low despite effectiveness of screening in reducing CRC mortality. This article outlines the theoretical background and development of an innovative, telephone-based risk communication designed to promote screening among individuals at increased risk for familial CRC. This ongoing intervention integrates the Extended Parallel Process Model of fear management and the motivational interviewing counselling style. Tailoring and implementation intentions are incorporated. The primary outcome is self-reported colonoscopy within nine months following intervention. If proven effective, the remote intervention could be broadly disseminated to individuals at increased familial CRC risk, especially those in geographically underserved areas. PMID:21464114

Integrated Application of Quality-by-Design Principles to Drug Product Development: A Case Study of Brivanib Alaninate Film-Coated Tablets.

PubMed

Badawy, Sherif I F; Narang, Ajit S; LaMarche, Keirnan R; Subramanian, Ganeshkumar A; Varia, Sailesh A; Lin, Judy; Stevens, Tim; Shah, Pankaj A

2016-01-01

Modern drug product development is expected to follow quality-by-design (QbD) paradigm. At the same time, although there are several issue-specific examples in the literature that demonstrate the application of QbD principles, a holistic demonstration of the application of QbD principles to drug product development and control strategy, is lacking. This article provides an integrated case study on the systematic application of QbD to product development and demonstrates the implementation of QbD concepts in the different aspects of product and process design for brivanib alaninate film-coated tablets. Using a risk-based approach, the strategy for development entailed identification of product critical quality attributes (CQAs), assessment of risks to the CQAs, and performing experiments to understand and mitigate identified risks. Quality risk assessments and design of experiments were performed to understand the quality of the input raw materials required for a robust formulation and the impact of manufacturing process parameters on CQAs. In addition to the material property and process parameter controls, the proposed control strategy includes use of process analytical technology and conventional analytical tests to control in-process material attributes and ensure quality of the final product. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Health risk behaviours amongst school adolescents: protocol for a mixed methods study.

PubMed

El Achhab, Youness; El Ammari, Abdelghaffar; El Kazdouh, Hicham; Najdi, Adil; Berraho, Mohamed; Tachfouti, Nabil; Lamri, Driss; El Fakir, Samira; Nejjari, Chakib

2016-11-29

Determining risky behaviours of adolescents provides valuable information for designing appropriate intervention programmes for advancing adolescent's health. However, these behaviours are not fully addressed by researchers in a comprehensive approach. We report the protocol of a mixed methods study designed to investigate the health risk behaviours of Moroccan adolescents with the goal of identifying suitable strategies to address their health concerns. We used a sequential two-phase explanatory mixed method study design. The approach begins with the collection of quantitative data, followed by the collection of qualitative data to explain and enrich the quantitative findings. In the first phase, the global school-based student health survey (GSHS) was administered to 800 students who were between 14 and 19 years of age. The second phase engaged adolescents, parents and teachers in focus groups and assessed education documents to explore the level of coverage of health education in the programme learnt in the middle school. To obtain opinions about strategies to reduce Moroccan adolescents' health risk behaviours, a nominal group technique will be used. The findings of this mixed methods sequential explanatory study provide insights into the risk behaviours that need to be considered if intervention programmes and preventive strategies are to be designed to promote adolescent's health in the Moroccan school.

Wallops Ship Surveillance System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Donna C.

2011-01-01

Approved as a Wallops control center backup system, the Wallops Ship Surveillance Software is a day-of-launch risk analysis tool for spaceport activities. The system calculates impact probabilities and displays ship locations relative to boundary lines. It enables rapid analysis of possible flight paths to preclude the need to cancel launches and allow execution of launches in a timely manner. Its design is based on low-cost, large-customer- base elements including personal computers, the Windows operating system, C/C++ object-oriented software, and network interfaces. In conformance with the NASA software safety standard, the system is designed to ensure that it does not falsely report a safe-for-launch condition. To improve the current ship surveillance method, the system is designed to prevent delay of launch under a safe-for-launch condition. A single workstation is designated the controller of the official ship information and the official risk analysis. Copies of this information are shared with other networked workstations. The program design is divided into five subsystems areas: 1. Communication Link -- threads that control the networking of workstations; 2. Contact List -- a thread that controls a list of protected item (ocean vessel) information; 3. Hazard List -- threads that control a list of hazardous item (debris) information and associated risk calculation information; 4. Display -- threads that control operator inputs and screen display outputs; and 5. Archive -- a thread that controls archive file read and write access. Currently, most of the hazard list thread and parts of other threads are being reused as part of a new ship surveillance system, under the SureTrak project.

Statins and Risk of Lower Limb Revision Surgery: The Influence of Differences in Study Design Using Electronic Health Records From the United Kingdom and Denmark

PubMed Central

Lalmohamed, Arief; van Staa, Tjeerd P.; Vestergaard, Peter; Leufkens, Hubertus G. M.; de Boer, Anthonius; Emans, Pieter; Cooper, Cyrus; de Vries, Frank

2016-01-01

Abstract Previous observational studies on statins have shown variable results based on the methodology used. Our objective was to study the association between statins and orthopedic implant failure and to explore the influence of methodological differences in study design. Our study base consisted of patients with a primary total joint replacement in Denmark and the United Kingdom (n = 189,286; 1987–2012). We used 4 study designs: 1) case-control (each patient with revision surgery matched to 4 controls), 2) time-dependent cohort (postoperative statin use as a time-varying exposure variable), 3) immortal time cohort (misclassifying the time postoperatively before statin use), and 4) time-exclusion cohort (excluding the time postoperatively before statin use). Cox proportional hazards models and logistic regression were used to estimate incidence rate ratios. In the time-dependent cohort design, statin use was associated with a decreased risk of revision surgery (adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85, 0.96), which was similar to our case-control results (IRR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81, 0.93). In contrast, both time-fixed cohort designs yielded substantially lower risk estimates (IRR = 0.36 (95% CI: 0.34, 0.38) and IRR = 0.65 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.68), respectively). We discourage the use of time-fixed cohort studies, which may falsely suggest protective effects. The simple choice of how to classify exposure can substantially change results from biologically plausible to implausible. PMID:27317693

Design for robustness of unique, multi-component engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shelton, Kenneth A.

2007-12-01

The purpose of this research is to advance the science of conceptual designing for robustness in unique, multi-component engineering systems. Robustness is herein defined as the ability of an engineering system to operate within a desired performance range even if the actual configuration has differences from specifications within specified tolerances. These differences are caused by three sources, namely manufacturing errors, system degradation (operational wear and tear), and parts availability. Unique, multi-component engineering systems are defined as systems produced in unique or very small production numbers. They typically have design and manufacturing costs on the order of billions of dollars, and have multiple, competing performance objectives. Design time for these systems must be minimized due to competition, high manpower costs, long manufacturing times, technology obsolescence, and limited available manpower expertise. Most importantly, design mistakes cannot be easily corrected after the systems are operational. For all these reasons, robustness of these systems is absolutely critical. This research examines the space satellite industry in particular. Although inherent robustness assurance is absolutely critical, it is difficult to achieve in practice. The current state of the art for robustness in the industry is to overdesign components and subsystems with redundancy and margin. The shortfall is that it is not known if the added margins were either necessary or sufficient given the risk management preferences of the designer or engineering system customer. To address this shortcoming, new assessment criteria to evaluate robustness in design concepts have been developed. The criteria are comprised of the "Value Distance", addressing manufacturing errors and system degradation, and "Component Distance", addressing parts availability. They are based on an evolutionary computation format that uses a string of alleles to describe the components in the design concept. These allele values are unitless themselves, but map to both configuration descriptions and attribute values. The Value Distance and Component Distance are metrics that measure the relative differences between two design concepts using the allele values, and all differences in a population of design concepts are calculated relative to a reference design, called the "base design". The base design is the top-ranked member of the population in weighted terms of robustness and performance. Robustness is determined based on the change in multi-objective performance as Value Distance and Component Distance (and thus differences in design) increases. It is assessed as acceptable if differences in design configurations up to specified tolerances result in performance changes that remain within a specified performance range. The design configuration difference tolerances and performance range together define the designer's risk management preferences for the final design concepts. Additionally, a complementary visualization capability was developed, called the "Design Solution Topography". This concept allows the visualization of a population of design concepts, and is a 3-axis plot where each point represents an entire design concept. The axes are the Value Distance, Component Distance and Performance Objective. The key benefit of the Design Solution Topography is that it allows the designer to visually identify and interpret the overall robustness of the current population of design concepts for a particular performance objective. In a multi-objective problem, each performance objective has its own Design Solution Topography view. These new concepts are implemented in an evolutionary computation-based conceptual designing method called the "Design for Robustness Method" that produces robust design concepts. The design procedures associated with this method enable designers to evaluate and ensure robustness in selected designs that also perform within a desired performance range. The method uses an evolutionary computation-based procedure to generate populations of large numbers of alternative design concepts, which are assessed for robustness using the Value Distance, Component Distance and Design Solution Topography procedures. The Design for Robustness Method provides a working conceptual designing structure in which to implement and gain the benefits of these new concepts. In the included experiments, the method was used on several mathematical examples to demonstrate feasibility, which showed favorable results as compared to existing known methods. Furthermore, it was tested on a real-world satellite conceptual designing problem to illustrate the applicability and benefits to industry. Risk management insights were demonstrated for the robustness-related issues of manufacturing errors, operational degradation, parts availability, and impacts based on selections of particular types of components.

MATILDA Version 2: Rough Earth TIALD Model for Laser Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain - Part I

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-13

support of airborne laser designator use during test and training exercises on military ranges. The initial MATILDA tool, MATILDA PRO Version-1.6.1...was based on the 2007 PRA model developed to perform range safety clearances for the UK Thermal Imaging Airborne Laser Designator (TIALD) system...AFRL Technical Reports. This Technical Report, designated Part I, con- tains documentation of the computational procedures for probabilistic fault

Vibration Characterization and Health Risk Assessment of the Vermont Army National Guard UH-72 Lakota and HH-60M MEDEVAC

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

For assessing comfort reaction, the overall vibration total value (oVTV) was calculated as the vector sum of the weighted triaxial seat pan and...the health symptoms require investigation in order to develop or improve effective exposure criteria, ergonomic design requirements, and mitigation...effects, seat design , and validation testing. However, appropriate science- and technology-based guidelines on exposure, seat design , and validation

Improving online risk assessment with equipment prognostics and health monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coble, Jamie B.; Liu, Xiaotong; Briere, Chris

The current approach to evaluating the risk of nuclear power plant (NPP) operation relies on static probabilities of component failure, which are based on industry experience with the existing fleet of nominally similar light water reactors (LWRs). As the nuclear industry looks to advanced reactor designs that feature non-light water coolants (e.g., liquid metal, high temperature gas, molten salt), this operating history is not available. Many advanced reactor designs use advanced components, such as electromagnetic pumps, that have not been used in the US commercial nuclear fleet. Given the lack of rich operating experience, we cannot accurately estimate the evolvingmore » probability of failure for basic components to populate the fault trees and event trees that typically comprise probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. Online equipment prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies can bridge this gap to estimate the failure probabilities for components under operation. The enhanced risk monitor (ERM) incorporates equipment condition assessment into the existing PRA and risk monitor framework to provide accurate and timely estimates of operational risk.« less

Using electronic health record data for substance use Screening, Brief Intervention, and Referral to Treatment among adults with type 2 diabetes: Design of a National Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network study.

PubMed

Wu, Li-Tzy; Brady, Kathleen T; Spratt, Susan E; Dunham, Ashley A; Heidenfelder, Brooke; Batch, Bryan C; Lindblad, Robert; VanVeldhuisen, Paul; Rusincovitch, Shelley A; Killeen, Therese K; Ghitza, Udi E

2016-01-01

The Affordable Care Act encourages healthcare systems to integrate behavioral and medical healthcare, as well as to employ electronic health records (EHRs) for health information exchange and quality improvement. Pragmatic research paradigms that employ EHRs in research are needed to produce clinical evidence in real-world medical settings for informing learning healthcare systems. Adults with comorbid diabetes and substance use disorders (SUDs) tend to use costly inpatient treatments; however, there is a lack of empirical data on implementing behavioral healthcare to reduce health risk in adults with high-risk diabetes. Given the complexity of high-risk patients' medical problems and the cost of conducting randomized trials, a feasibility project is warranted to guide practical study designs. We describe the study design, which explores the feasibility of implementing substance use Screening, Brief Intervention, and Referral to Treatment (SBIRT) among adults with high-risk type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) within a home-based primary care setting. Our study includes the development of an integrated EHR datamart to identify eligible patients and collect diabetes healthcare data, and the use of a geographic health information system to understand the social context in patients' communities. Analysis will examine recruitment, proportion of patients receiving brief intervention and/or referrals, substance use, SUD treatment use, diabetes outcomes, and retention. By capitalizing on an existing T2DM project that uses home-based primary care, our study results will provide timely clinical information to inform the designs and implementation of future SBIRT studies among adults with multiple medical conditions. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of Web-based Braden Scale training on the reliability and precision of Braden Scale pressure ulcer risk assessments.

PubMed

Magnan, Morris A; Maklebust, Joann

2008-01-01

To evaluate the effect of Web-based Braden Scale training on the reliability and precision of pressure ulcer risk assessments made by registered nurses (RN) working in acute care settings. Pretest-posttest, 2-group, quasi-experimental design. Five hundred Braden Scale risk assessments were made on 102 acute care patients deemed to be at various levels of risk for pressure ulceration. Assessments were made by RNs working in acute care hospitals at 3 different medical centers where the Braden Scale was in regular daily use (2 medical centers) or new to the setting (1 medical center). The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk was used to guide pressure ulcer risk assessments. A Web-based version of the Detroit Medical Center Braden Scale Computerized Training Module was used to teach nurses correct use of the Braden Scale and selection of risk-based pressure ulcer prevention interventions. In the aggregate, RN generated reliable Braden Scale pressure ulcer risk assessments 65% of the time after training. The effect of Web-based Braden Scale training on reliability and precision of assessments varied according to familiarity with the scale. With training, new users of the scale made reliable assessments 84% of the time and significantly improved precision of their assessments. The reliability and precision of Braden Scale risk assessments made by its regular users was unaffected by training. Technology-assisted Braden Scale training improved both reliability and precision of risk assessments made by new users of the scale, but had virtually no effect on the reliability or precision of risk assessments made by regular users of the instrument. Further research is needed to determine best approaches for improving reliability and precision of Braden Scale assessments made by its regular users.

Creating the Action Model for High Risk Infant Follow Up Program in Iran

PubMed Central

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Jodiery, Behzad; Mirnia, Kayvan; Akrami, Forouzan; Hosseini, Mohammad Bagher; Heidarabadi, Seifollah; HabibeLahi, Abbas

2013-01-01

Abstract Background Intervention in early childhood development as one of the social determinants of health, is important for reducing social gap and inequity. In spite of increasingly developing intensive neonatal care wards and decreasing neonatal mortality rate, there is no follow up program in Iran. This study was carreid out to design high risk infants follow up care program with the practical aim of creating an model action for whole country, in 2012. Methods This qualitative study has been done by the Neonatal Department of the Deputy of Public Health in cooperation with Pediatrics Health Research Center of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Iran. After study of international documents, consensus agreement about adapted program for Iran has been accomplished by focus group discussion and attended Delphi agreement technique. After compiling primary draft included evidence based guidelines and executive plan, 14 sessions including expert panels were hold to finalize the program. Results After finalizing the program, high risk infants follow up care service package has been designed in 3 chapters: Evidence based clinical guidelines; eighteen main clinical guidelines and thirteen subsidiaries clinical guidelines, executive plan; 6 general, 6 following up and 5 backup processes. Education program including general and especial courses for care givers and follow up team, and family education processes. Conclusion We designed and finalized high risk infants follow up care service package. It seems to open a way to extend it to whole country. PMID:26171344

Soils Project Risk-Based Corrective Action Evaluation Process with ROTC 1 and ROTC 2, Revision 0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matthews, Patrick; Sloop, Christina

2012-04-01

This document formally defines and clarifies the NDEP-approved process the NNSA/NSO Soils Activity uses to fulfill the requirements of the FFACO and state regulations. This process is used to establish FALs in accordance with the risk-based corrective action (RBCA) process stipulated in Chapter 445 of the Nevada Administrative Code (NAC) as described in the ASTM International (ASTM) Method E1739-95 (NAC, 2008; ASTM, 1995). It is designed to provide a set of consistent standards for chemical and radiological corrective actions.

Observational methods to assess the effectiveness of screening colonoscopy in reducing right colon cancer mortality risk: SCOLAR.

PubMed

Goodman, Michael; Fletcher, Robert H; Doria-Rose, V Paul; Jensen, Christopher D; Zebrowski, Alexis M; Becerra, Tracy A; Quinn, Virginia P; Zauber, Ann G; Corley, Douglas A; Doubeni, Chyke A

2015-11-01

Screening colonoscopy's effectiveness in reducing risk of death from right colon cancers remains unclear. Methodological challenges of existing observational studies addressing this issue motivated the design of 'Effectiveness of Screening for Colorectal Cancer in Average-Risk Adults (SCOLAR)'. SCOLAR is a nested case-control study based on two large integrated health systems. This affords access to a large, well-defined historical cohort linked to integrated data on cancer outcomes, patient eligibility, test indications and important confounders. We found electronic data adequate for excluding ineligible patients (except family history), but not the detailed information needed for test indication assignment. The lessons of SCOLAR's design and implementation may be useful for future studies seeking to evaluate the effectiveness of screening tests in community settings.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

NASA Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wu, Honglu; Corbin, Barbara J.; Sulzman, Frank M.; Krenek, Sam

2007-01-01

In space, astronauts are constantly bombarded with energetic particles. The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the NASA Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. Among the identified radiation risks are cancer, acute and late CNS damage, chronic and degenerative tissue decease, and acute radiation syndrome. The term "safely" means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences can be defined. The NASA Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting the identified radiation risks. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus, the fourth element develops computer algorithms to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

Efficacy of a Web-based Intelligent Tutoring System for Communicating Genetic Risk of Breast Cancer: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach

PubMed Central

Wolfe, Christopher R.; Reyna, Valerie F.; Widmer, Colin L.; Cedillos, Elizabeth M.; Fisher, Christopher R.; Brust-Renck, Priscila G.; Weil, Audrey M.

2014-01-01

Background Many healthy women consider genetic testing for breast cancer risk, yet BRCA testing issues are complex. Objective Determining whether an intelligent tutor, BRCA Gist, grounded in fuzzy-trace theory (FTT), increases gist comprehension and knowledge about genetic testing for breast cancer risk, improving decision-making. Design In two experiments, 410 healthy undergraduate women were randomly assigned to one of three groups: an online module using a web-based tutoring system (BRCA Gist) that uses artificial intelligence technology, a second group read highly similar content from the NCI web site, and a third completed an unrelated tutorial. Intervention BRCA Gist applied fuzzy trace theory and was designed to help participants develop gist comprehension of topics relevant to decisions about BRCA genetic testing, including how breast cancer spreads, inherited genetic mutations, and base rates. Measures We measured content knowledge, gist comprehension of decision-relevant information, interest in testing, and genetic risk and testing judgments. Results Control knowledge scores ranged from 54% to 56%, NCI improved significantly to 65% and 70%, and BRCA Gist improved significantly more to 75% and 77%, p<.0001. BRCA Gist scored higher on gist comprehension than NCI and control, p<.0001. Control genetic risk-assessment mean was 48% correct; BRCA Gist (61%), and NCI (56%) were significantly higher, p<.0001. BRCA Gist participants recommended less testing for women without risk factors (not good candidates), (24% and 19%) than controls (50%, both experiments) and NCI, (32%) Experiment 2, p<.0001. BRCA Gist testing interest was lower than controls, p<.0001. Limitations BRCA Gist has not been tested with older women from diverse groups. Conclusions Intelligent tutors, such as BRCA Gist, are scalable, cost effective ways of helping people understand complex issues, improving decision-making. PMID:24829276

A systematic review of grandparents’ influence on grandchildren’s cancer risk factors

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Many lifestyle patterns are established when children are young. Research has focused on the potential role of parents as a risk factor for non communicable disease in children, but there is limited investigation of the role of other caregivers, such as grandparents. The aim of this review was to identify and synthesise evidence for any influence grandparents’ care practices may have on their grandchildren’s long term cancer risk factors. A systematic review was carried out with searches across four databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, PsycINFO) as well as searches of reference lists and citing articles, and Google Scholar. Search terms were based on six areas of risk that family care could potentially influence–weight, diet, physical activity, tobacco, alcohol and sun exposure. All study designs were included, as were studies that provided an indication of the interaction of grandparents with their grandchildren. Studies were excluded if grandparents were primary caregivers and if children had serious health conditions. Study quality was assessed using National Institute for Health and Care Excellence checklists. Grandparent impact was categorised as beneficial, adverse, mixed or as having no impact. Due to study heterogeneity a meta-analysis was not possible. Qualitative studies underwent a thematic synthesis of their results. Results from all included studies indicated that there was a sufficient evidence base for weight, diet, physical activity and tobacco studies to draw conclusions about grandparents’ influence. One study examined alcohol and no studies examined sun exposure. Evidence indicated that, overall, grandparents had an adverse impact on their grandchildren’s cancer risk factors. The theoretical work in the included studies was limited. Theoretically underpinned interventions designed to reduce these risk factors must consider grandparents’ role, as well as parents’, and be evaluated robustly to inform the evidence base further. PMID:29135979

Risk-based requirements management framework with applications to assurance cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Eyster, C.

The current regulatory approach for assuring device safety primarily focuses on compliance with prescriptive safety regulations and relevant safety standards. This approach, however, does not always lead to a safe system design even though safety regulations and standards have been met. In the medical device industry, several high profile recalls involving infusion pumps have prompted the regulatory agency to reconsider how device safety should be managed, reviewed and approved. An assurance case has been cited as a promising tool to address this growing concern. Assurance cases have been used in safety-critical systems for some time. Most assurance cases, if not all, in literature today are developed in an ad hoc fashion, independent from risk management and requirement development. An assurance case is a resource-intensive endeavor that requires additional effort and documentation from equipment manufacturers. Without a well-organized requirements infrastructure in place, such “ additional effort” can be substantial, to the point where the cost of adoption outweighs the benefit of adoption. In this paper, the authors present a Risk-Based Requirements and Assurance Management (RBRAM) methodology. The RBRAM is an elaborate framework that combines Risk-Based Requirements Management (RBRM) with assurance case methods. Such an integrated framework can help manufacturers leverage an existing risk management to present a comprehensive assurance case with minimal additional effort while providing a supplementary means to reexamine the integrity of the system design in terms of the mission objective. Although the example used is from the medical industry, the authors believe that the RBRAM methodology underlines the fundamental principle of risk management, and offers a simple, yet effective framework applicable to aerospace industry, perhaps, to any industry.

Impact of Web-based Case Conferencing on Cancer Genetics Training Outcomes for Community-based Clinicians

PubMed Central

Blazer, Kathleen R.; Christie, Christina; Uman, Gwen; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.

2013-01-01

Introduction Technology and market forces are driving the demand for cancer risk assessment services in the community setting, where few clinicians are trained to order and interpret predictive genetic tests. City of Hope conducts a three-phase course in genetic cancer risk assessment (GCRA) for community-based clinicians, comprised of distance didactics, face-to-face workshops and 12 months of professional development. As designed, the course cannot meet increasing demands for GCRA training. Action research identified face-to-face workshops as a barrier to increasing course capacity. This study compared the learning effectiveness of Web-based case conferencing to face-to-face training. Methods A quasi-experimental design compared pre-post knowledge, skills and professional self-efficacy outcomes from 2009-2010 course cohorts (n=96). The intervention group (n=52) engaged in Web-based case conferences during distance learning; the comparison group (n=44) participated in the course as originally designed. Results Both groups and all practice disciplines demonstrated significant pre-to-post increases on all measures. Knowledge increases were higher for the intervention group (p < .015); skills and self-efficacy increases were comparable between groups (p < .33 and p < .30, respectively). Discussion Findings support the learning utility of Web-based case conferencing. Further studies may inform the development of tools to assess the impact of Web-based case conferencing on practice change and patient outcomes, in alignment with the highest standards of continuing professional development. PMID:22328115

Balancing Army and endangered species concerns: Green vs. Green.

PubMed

McKee, M; Berrens, R P

2001-01-01

A number of endangered, threatened, or at-risk species have been identified on US Army training bases. Before further training is restricted or curtailed under provisions of the US Endangered Species Act (ESA), the Army can explore available proactive options for providing habitat protection and mitigation. This paper investigates the possibility of an Army habitat acquisition program to acquire (by lease or purchase) buffer zones of at-risk species' habitat around its bases and away from training. To identify the most cost-effective manner for acquiring habitat, auction market experiments are utilized for analyzing program design. Laboratory auction experiments provide a powerful and low-cost vehicle for investigating ex ante program design issues. We find the discriminative, as opposed to a uniform price, auction with a minimum quantity requirement to be the least-cost mechanism.

Risk Evaluation in the Pre-Phase A Conceptual Design of Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fabisinski, Leo L., III; Maples, Charlotte Dauphne

2010-01-01

Typically, the most important decisions in the design of a spacecraft are made in the earliest stages of its conceptual design the Pre-Phase A stages. It is in these stages that the greatest number of design alternatives is considered, and the greatest number of alternatives is rejected. The focus of Pre-Phase A conceptual development is on the evaluation and comparison of whole concepts and the larger-scale systems comprising those concepts. This comparison typically uses general Figures of Merit (FOMs) to quantify the comparative benefits of designs and alternative design features. Along with mass, performance, and cost, risk should be one of the major FOMs in evaluating design decisions during the conceptual design phases. However, risk is often given inadequate consideration in conceptual design practice. The reasons frequently given for this lack of attention to risk include: inadequate mission definition, lack of rigorous design requirements in early concept phases, lack of fidelity in risk assessment methods, and under-evaluation of risk as a viable FOM for design evaluation. In this paper, the role of risk evaluation in early conceptual design is discussed. The various requirements of a viable risk evaluation tool at the Pre-Phase A level are considered in light of the needs of a typical spacecraft design study. A technique for risk identification and evaluation is presented. The application of the risk identification and evaluation approach to the conceptual design process is discussed. Finally, a computational tool for risk profiling is presented and applied to assess the risk for an existing Pre-Phase A proposal. The resulting profile is compared to the risks identified for the proposal by other means.

Insurance principles and the design of prospective payment systems.

PubMed

Ellis, R P; McGuire, T G

1988-09-01

This paper applies insurance principles to the issues of optimal outlier payments and designation of peer groups in Medicare's case-based prospective payment system for hospital care. Arrow's principle that full insurance after a deductible is optimal implies that, to minimize hospital risk, outlier payments should be based on hospital average loss per case rather than, as at present, based on individual case-level losses. The principle of experience rating implies defining more homogenous peer groups for the purpose of figuring average cost. The empirical significance of these results is examined using a sample of 470,568 discharges from 469 hospitals.

Source preference and ambiguity aversion: models and evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging experiments.

PubMed

Chew, Soo Hong; Li, King King; Chark, Robin; Zhong, Songfa

2008-01-01

This experimental economics study using brain imaging techniques investigates the risk-ambiguity distinction in relation to the source preference hypothesis (Fox & Tversky, 1995) in which identically distributed risks arising from different sources of uncertainty may engender distinct preferences for the same decision maker, contrary to classical economic thinking. The use of brain imaging enables sharper testing of the implications of different models of decision-making including Chew and Sagi's (2008) axiomatization of source preference. Using fMRI, brain activations were observed when subjects make 48 sequential binary choices among even-chance lotteries based on whether the trailing digits of a number of stock prices at market closing would be odd or even. Subsequently, subjects rate familiarity of the stock symbols. When contrasting brain activation from more familiar sources with those from less familiar ones, regions appearing to be more active include the putamen, medial frontal cortex, and superior temporal gyrus. ROI analysis showed that the activation patterns in the familiar-unfamiliar and unfamiliar-familiar contrasts are similar to those in the risk-ambiguity and ambiguity-risk contrasts reported by Hsu et al. (2005). This supports the conjecture that the risk-ambiguity distinction can be subsumed by the source preference hypothesis. Our odd-even design has the advantage of inducing the same "unambiguous" probability of half for each subject in each binary comparison. Our finding supports the implications of the Chew-Sagi model and rejects models based on global probabilistic sophistication, including rank-dependent models derived from non-additive probabilities, e.g., Choquet expected utility and cumulative prospect theory, as well as those based on multiple priors, e.g., alpha-maxmin. The finding in Hsu et al. (2005) that orbitofrontal cortex lesion patients display neither ambiguity aversion nor risk aversion offers further support to the Chew-Sagi model. Our finding also supports the Levy et al. (2007) contention of a single valuation system encompassing risk and ambiguity aversion. This is the first neuroimaging study of the source preference hypothesis using a design which can discriminate among decision models ranging from risk-based ones to those relying on multiple priors.

Development and performance of electronic acute kidney injury triggers to identify pediatric patients at risk for nephrotoxic medication-associated harm.

PubMed

Kirkendall, E S; Spires, W L; Mottes, T A; Schaffzin, J K; Barclay, C; Goldstein, S L

2014-01-01

Nephrotoxic medication-associated acute kidney injury (NTMx-AKI) is a costly clinical phenomenon and more common than previously recognized. Prior efforts to use technology to identify AKI have focused on detection after renal injury has occurred. Describe an approach and provide a technical framework for the creation of risk-stratifying AKI triggers and the development of an application to manage the AKI trigger data. Report the performance characteristics of those triggers and the refinement process and on the challenges of implementation. Initial manual trigger screening guided design of an automated electronic trigger report. A web-based application was designed to alleviate inefficiency and serve as a user interface and central workspace for the project. Performance of the NTMx exposure trigger reports from September 2011 to September 2013 were evaluated using sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV). Automated reports were created to replace manual screening for NTMx-AKI. The initial performance of the NTMx exposure triggers for SN, SP, PPV, and NPV all were ≥0.78, and increased over the study, with all four measures reaching ≥0.95 consistently. A web-based application was implemented that simplifies data entry and couriering from the reports, expedites results viewing, and interfaces with an automated data visualization tool. Sociotechnical challenges were logged and reported. We have built a risk-stratifying system based on electronic triggers that detects patients at-risk for NTMx-AKI before injury occurs. The performance of the NTMx-exposed reports has neared 100% through iterative optimization. The complexity of the trigger logic and clinical workflows surrounding NTMx-AKI led to a challenging implementation, but one that has been successful from technical, clinical, and quality improvement standpoints. This report summarizes the construction of a trigger-based application, the performance of the triggers, and the challenges uncovered during the design, build, and implementation of the system.

Spatial Analysis of Geohazards using ArcGIS--A web-based Course.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbert, W.; Davis, D.

2003-12-01

As part of the Environmental Systems Research Incorporated (ESRI) Virtual Campus program, a course was designed to present the benefits of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based spatial analysis as applied towards a variety of geohazards. We created this on-line ArcGIS 8.x-based course to aid the motivated student or professional in his or her efforts to use GIS in determining where geohazards are likely to occur and for assessing their potential impact on the human community. Our course is broadly designed for earth scientists, public sector professionals, students, and others who want to apply GIS to the study of geohazards. Participants work with ArcGIS software and diverse datasets to display, visualize and analyze a wide variety of data sets and map a variety of geohazards including earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, tsunamis, and floods. Following the GIS-based methodology of posing a question, decomposing the question into specific criteria, applying the criteria to spatial or tabular geodatasets and then analyzing feature relationships, from the beginning the course content was designed in order to enable the motivated student to answer questions. For example, to explain the relationship between earth quake location, earthquake depth, and plate boundaries; use a seismic hazard map to identify population and features at risk from an earthquake; import data from an earthquake catalog and visualize these data in 3D; explain the relationship between earthquake damage and local geology; use a flood scenario map to identify features at risk for forecast river discharges; use a tsunami inundation map to identify population and features at risk from tsunami; use a hurricane inundation map to identify the population at risk for any given category hurricane; estimate accumulated precipitation by integrating time-series Doppler radar data; and model a real-life landslide event. The six on-line modules for our course are Earthquakes I, Earthquakes II, Volcanoes, Floods, Coastal Geohazards and Landslides. Earthquake I can be viewed and accessed for no cost at http://campus.esri.com.

The Zero Suicide Model: Applying Evidence-Based Suicide Prevention Practices to Clinical Care

PubMed Central

Brodsky, Beth S.; Spruch-Feiner, Aliza; Stanley, Barbara

2018-01-01

Suicide is reaching epidemic proportions, with over 44,000 deaths by suicide in the US, and 800,000 worldwide in 2015. This, despite research and development of evidence-based interventions that target suicidal behavior directly. Suicide prevention efforts need a comprehensive approach, and research must lead to effective implementation across public and mental health systems. A 10-year systematic review of evidence-based findings in suicide prevention summarized the areas necessary for translating research into practice. These include risk assessment, means restriction, evidence-based treatments, population screening combined with chain of care, monitoring, and follow-up. In this article, we review how suicide prevention research informs implementation in clinical settings where those most at risk present for care. Evidence-based and best practices address the fluctuating nature of suicide risk, which requires ongoing risk assessment, direct intervention and monitoring. In the US, the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention has put forth the Zero Suicide (ZS) Model, a framework to coordinate a multilevel approach to implementing evidence-based practices. We present the Assess, Intervene and Monitor for Suicide Prevention model (AIM-SP) as a guide for implementation of ZS evidence-based and best practices in clinical settings. Ten basic steps for clinical management model will be described and illustrated through case vignette. These steps are designed to be easily incorporated into standard clinical practice to enhance suicide risk assessment, brief interventions to increase safety and teach coping strategies and to improve ongoing contact and monitoring of high-risk individuals during transitions in care and high risk periods. PMID:29527178

Families Matter! Presexual Risk Prevention Intervention

PubMed Central

Lasswell, Sarah M.; Riley, Drewallyn B.; Poulsen, Melissa N.

2013-01-01

Parent-based HIV prevention programming may play an important role in reaching youths early to help establish lifelong patterns of safe and healthy sexual behaviors. Families Matter! is a 5-session, evidence-based behavioral intervention designed for primary caregivers of children aged 9 to 12 years to promote positive parenting and effective parent–child communication about sexuality and sexual risk reduction. The program’s 5-step capacity-building model was implemented with local government, community, and faith-based partners in 8 sub-Saharan African countries with good intervention fidelity and high levels of participant retention. Families Matter! may be useful in other resource-constrained settings. PMID:24028229

Risk Protection, Service Use, and Health Outcomes under Colombia’s Health Insurance Program for the Poor

PubMed Central

Miller, Grant; Pinto, Diana

2013-01-01

Unexpected medical care spending imposes considerable financial risk on developing country households. Based on managed care models of health insurance in wealthy countries, Colombia’s Régimen Subsidiado is a publicly financed insurance program targeted to the poor, aiming both to provide risk protection and to promote allocative efficiency in the use of medical care. Using a “fuzzy” regression discontinuity design, we find that the program has shielded the poor from some financial risk while increasing the use of traditionally under-utilized preventive services – with measurable health gains. PMID:25346799

Innovative Research Design Exploring the Effects of Physical Activity and Genetics on Cognitive Performance in Community-Based Older Adults

PubMed Central

Etnier, Jennifer L.; Labban, Jeffrey D.; Karper, William B.; Wideman, Laurie; Piepmeier, Aaron T.; Shih, Chia-Hao; Castellano, Michael; Williams, Lauren M.; Park, Se-Yun; Henrich, Vincent C.; Dudley, William N.; Rulison, Kelli L.

2015-01-01

Physical activity is predictive of better cognitive performance and lower risk of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) is a susceptibility gene for AD with the e4 allele being associated with a greater risk of AD. Cross-sectional and prospective research shows that physical activity is predictive of better cognitive performance for those at greater genetic risk for AD. However, the moderating role of APOE on the effects of a physical activity intervention on cognitive performance has not been examined. The purpose of this manuscript is to justify the need for such research and to describe the design, methods, and recruitment tactics used in the conductance of a study designed to provide insight as to the extent to which cognitive benefits resulting from an 8-month physical activity program are differentiated by ApoEe4 status. The effectiveness of the recruitment strategies and the feasibility of recruiting ApoE e4 carriers are discussed. PMID:25594264

Assessing college-level learning difficulties and "at riskness" for learning disabilities and ADHD: development and validation of the learning difficulties assessment.

PubMed

Kane, Steven T; Walker, John H; Schmidt, George R

2011-01-01

This article describes the development and validation of the Learning Difficulties Assessment (LDA), a normed and web-based survey that assesses perceived difficulties with reading, writing, spelling, mathematics, listening, concentration, memory, organizational skills, sense of control, and anxiety in college students. The LDA is designed to (a) map individual learning strengths and weaknesses, (b) provide users with a comparative sense of their academic skills, (c) integrate research in user-interface design to assist those with reading and learning challenges, and (d) identify individuals who may be at risk for learning disabilities and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and who should thus be further assessed. Data from a large-scale 5-year study describing the instrument's validity as a screening tool for learning disabilities and ADHD are presented. This article also describes unique characteristics of the LDA including its user-interface design, normative characteristics, and use as a no-cost screening tool for identifying college students at risk for learning disorders and ADHD.

Innovative Research Design Exploring the Effects of Physical Activity and Genetics on Cognitive Performance in Community-Based Older Adults.

PubMed

Etnier, Jennifer L; Labban, Jeffrey D; Karper, William B; Wideman, Laurie; Piepmeier, Aaron T; Shih, Chia-Hao; Castellano, Michael; Williams, Lauren M; Park, Se-Yun; Henrich, Vincent C; Dudley, William N; Rulison, Kelli L

2015-10-01

Physical activity is predictive of better cognitive performance and lower risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) is a susceptibility gene for AD with the e4 allele being associated with a greater risk of AD. Cross-sectional and prospective research shows that physical activity is predictive of better cognitive performance for those at greater genetic risk for AD. However, the moderating role of APOE on the effects of a physical activity intervention on cognitive performance has not been examined. The purpose of this manuscript is to justify the need for such research and to describe the design, methods, and recruitment tactics used in the conductance of a study designed to provide insight as to the extent to which cognitive benefits resulting from an 8-month physical activity program are differentiated by APOE e4 status. The effectiveness of the recruitment strategies and the feasibility of recruiting APOE e4 carriers are discussed.

A theoretical treatment of technical risk in modern propulsion system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, Bryce Alexander

2000-09-01

A prevalent trend in modern aerospace systems is increasing complexity and cost, which in turn drives increased risk. Consequently, there is a clear and present need for the development of formalized methods to analyze the impact of risk on the design of aerospace vehicles. The objective of this work is to develop such a method that enables analysis of risk via a consistent, comprehensive treatment of aerothermodynamic and mass properties aspects of vehicle design. The key elements enabling the creation of this methodology are recent developments in the analytical estimation of work potential based on the second law of thermodynamics. This dissertation develops the theoretical foundation of a vehicle analysis method based on work potential and validates it using the Northrop F-5E with GE J85-GE-21 engines as a case study. Although the method is broadly applicable, emphasis is given to aircraft propulsion applications. Three work potential figures of merit are applied using this method: exergy, available energy, and thrust work potential. It is shown that each possesses unique properties making them useful for specific vehicle analysis tasks, though the latter two are actually special cases of exergy. All three are demonstrated on the analysis of the J85-GE-21 propulsion system, resulting in a comprehensive description of propulsion system thermodynamic loss. This "loss management" method is used to analyze aerodynamic drag loss of the F-5E and is then used in conjunction with the propulsive loss model to analyze the usage of fuel work potential throughout the F-5E design mission. The results clearly show how and where work potential is used during flight and yield considerable insight as to where the greatest opportunity for design improvement is. Next, usage of work potential is translated into fuel weight so that the aerothermodynamic performance of the F-5E can be expressed entirely in terms of vehicle gross weight. This technique is then applied as a means to quantify the impact of engine cycle technologies on the F-5E airframe. Finally, loss management methods are used in conjunction with probabilistic analysis methods to quantify the impact of risk on F-5E aerothermodynamic performance.

Project Lifespan-based Nonstationary Hydrologic Design Methods for Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, L.

2017-12-01

Under changing environment, we must associate design floods with the design life period of projects to ensure the hydrologic design is really relevant to the operation of the hydrologic projects, because the design value for a given exceedance probability over the project life period would be significantly different from that over other time periods of the same length due to the nonstationarity of probability distributions. Several hydrologic design methods that take the design life period of projects into account have been proposed in recent years, i.e. the expected number of exceedances (ENE), design life level (DLL), equivalent reliability (ER), and average design life level (ADLL). Among the four methods to be compared, both the ENE and ER methods are return period-based methods, while DLL and ADLL are risk/reliability- based methods which estimate design values for given probability values of risk or reliability. However, the four methods can be unified together under a general framework through a relationship transforming the so-called representative reliability (RRE) into the return period, i.e. m=1/1(1-RRE), in which we compute the return period m using the representative reliability RRE.The results of nonstationary design quantiles and associated confidence intervals calculated by ENE, ER and ADLL were very similar, since ENE or ER was a special case or had a similar expression form with respect to ADLL. In particular, the design quantiles calculated by ENE and ADLL were the same when return period was equal to the length of the design life. In addition, DLL can yield similar design values if the relationship between DLL and ER/ADLL return periods is considered. Furthermore, ENE, ER and ADLL had good adaptability to either an increasing or decreasing situation, yielding not too large or too small design quantiles. This is important for applications of nonstationary hydrologic design methods in actual practice because of the concern of choosing the emerging nonstationary methods versus the traditional stationary methods. There is still a long way to go for the conceptual transition from stationarity to nonstationarity in hydrologic design.

Malaria Disease Mapping in Malaysia based on Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azah Samat, Nor; Mey, Liew Wan

2017-09-01

Disease mapping is the visual representation of the geographical distribution which give an overview info about the incidence of disease within a population through spatial epidemiology data. Based on the result of map, it helps in monitoring and planning resource needs at all levels of health care and designing appropriate interventions, tailored towards areas that deserve closer scrutiny or communities that lead to further investigations to identify important risk factors. Therefore, the choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important because production of disease risk map relies on the model used. This paper proposes Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model to estimate the relative risk for Malaria in Malaysia. The analysis involved using the number of Malaria cases that obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia. The outcomes of analysis are displayed through graph and map, including Malaria disease risk map that constructed according to the estimation of relative risk. The distribution of high and low risk areas of Malaria disease occurrences for all states in Malaysia can be identified in the risk map.

Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

PubMed

Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

2017-09-12

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method

PubMed Central

Deng, Xinyang

2017-01-01

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. PMID:28895905

Statistical Rick Estimation for Communication System Design --- A Preliminary Look

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babuscia, A.; Cheung, K.-M.

2012-02-01

Spacecraft are complex systems that involve different subsystems with multiple relationships among them. For these reasons, the design of a spacecraft is a time-evolving process that starts from requirements and evolves over time across different design phases. During this process, a lot of changes can happen. They can affect mass and power at the component level, at the subsystem level, and even at the system level. Each spacecraft has to respect the overall constraints in terms of mass and power: for this reason, it is important to be sure that the design does not exceed these limitations. Current practice in system models primarily deals with this problem, allocating margins on individual components and on individual subsystems. However, a statistical characterization of the fluctuations in mass and power of the overall system (i.e., the spacecraft) is missing. This lack of adequate statistical characterization would result in a risky spacecraft design that might not fit the mission constraints and requirements, or in a conservative design that might not fully utilize the available resources. Due to the complexity of the problem and to the different expertise and knowledge required to develop a complete risk model for a spacecraft design, this article is focused on risk estimation for a specific spacecraft subsystem: the communication subsystem. The current research aims to be a proof of concept of a risk-based design optimization approach, which can then be further expanded to the design of other subsystems as well as to the whole spacecraft. The objective of this research is to develop a mathematical approach to quantify the likelihood that the major design drivers of mass and power of a space communication system would meet the spacecraft and mission requirements and constraints through the mission design lifecycle. Using this approach, the communication system designers will be able to evaluate and to compare different communication architectures in a risk trade-off perspective. The results described in this article include a baseline communication system design tool and a statistical characterization of the design risks through a combination of historical mission data and expert opinion contributions. An application example of the communication system of a university spacecraft is presented. IPNPR Volume 42-189 Tagged File.txt

Design and Development of Virtual Reality Simulation for Teaching High-Risk Low-Volume Problem-Prone Office-Based Medical Emergencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lemheney, Alexander J.

2014-01-01

Physicians' offices are not the usual place where emergencies occur; thus how staff remains prepared and current regarding medical emergencies presents an ongoing challenge for private practitioners. The very nature of low-volume, high-risk, and problem-prone medical emergencies is that they occur with such infrequency it is difficult for staff to…

Providing Classroom-Based Intervention to At-Risk Students to Support Their Academic Engagement and Interactions with Peers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ornelles, Cecily

2007-01-01

In this study, the author used a multiple baseline design to evaluate the effects of a structured intervention on the engagement and initiations of 3 children identified as at-risk for school difficulty. The intervention had two phases. During intervention (Phase 1) the students received 9 15-min instructional sessions. The intervention had 3…

Preventive oral health intervention for pediatricians.

PubMed

2008-12-01

This policy is a compilation of current concepts and scientific evidence required to understand and implement practice-based preventive oral health programs designed to improve oral health outcomes for all children and especially children at significant risk of dental decay. In addition, it reviews cariology and caries risk assessment and defines, through available evidence, appropriate recommendations for preventive oral health intervention by primary care pediatric practitioners.

An Intervention for HPV Risk Reduction Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior: An Exploratory Study with College-Aged Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sweeney, Jocelyn Brineman; McAnulty, Richard D.; Reeve, Charlie; Cann, Arnie

2015-01-01

The goal of the study was to examine the effectiveness of a group intervention in reducing risks of contracting human papillomavirus (HPV) among college-aged women. Using a randomized design, the study examined the effectiveness of an HPV educational group intervention guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior. The intervention was provided in a…

Success and Challenges of a Community Healthy Lifestyles Intervention in Merseyside (UK) to Target Families at Risk from Coronary Heart Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peerbhoy, D.; Majumdar, A. J.; Wightman, N. A.; Brand, V. L.

2008-01-01

Objective: To document the lifestyle health impacts (activity, diet and physiological), along with the operational success and challenges, of a programme for families presenting one or more coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factor. Design: Data are based on a wider evaluation of a government-funded community initiative conducted in a deprived area…

In Service Training of Head Start Teachers to Overcome Early Risks of Mathematics Failure: The Mathstaar Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geist, Eugene A.; Geist, Kamile

2009-01-01

This action research project is designed as a music-based intervention to address and overcome some of the risk factors for low achievement in mathematics that research has linked to poverty level. The National Assessment of Educational Progress found that children who are eligible for school lunch programs in 4th grade score on average 13 points…

The Learning and Competency Development of Master Teachers in Alternative High Schools for At-Risk Youth: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Nida W.

2012-01-01

This qualitative case study was designed to explore how master teachers in transfer high schools learn the competencies they perceive are required to engage at-risk students so that they persist and graduate. The study is based on the following assumptions: (1) The requisite teacher competencies can be defined and identified and, in fact,…

Association between the 2008-09 seasonal influenza vaccine and pandemic H1N1 illness during Spring-Summer 2009: four observational studies from Canada.

PubMed

Skowronski, Danuta M; De Serres, Gaston; Crowcroft, Natasha S; Janjua, Naveed Z; Boulianne, Nicole; Hottes, Travis S; Rosella, Laura C; Dickinson, James A; Gilca, Rodica; Sethi, Pam; Ouhoummane, Najwa; Willison, Donald J; Rouleau, Isabelle; Petric, Martin; Fonseca, Kevin; Drews, Steven J; Rebbapragada, Anuradha; Charest, Hugues; Hamelin, Marie-Eve; Boivin, Guy; Gardy, Jennifer L; Li, Yan; Kwindt, Trijntje L; Patrick, David M; Brunham, Robert C

2010-04-06

In late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008-09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) illness. Several epidemiologic investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this putative association. (1) test-negative case-control design based on Canada's sentinel vaccine effectiveness monitoring system in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec; (2) conventional case-control design using population controls in Quebec; (3) test-negative case-control design in Ontario; and (4) prospective household transmission (cohort) study in Quebec. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for TIV effect on community- or hospital-based laboratory-confirmed seasonal or pH1N1 influenza cases compared to controls with restriction, stratification, and adjustment for covariates including combinations of age, sex, comorbidity, timeliness of medical visit, prior physician visits, and/or health care worker (HCW) status. For the prospective study risk ratios were computed. Based on the sentinel study of 672 cases and 857 controls, 2008-09 TIV was associated with statistically significant protection against seasonal influenza (odds ratio 0.44, 95% CI 0.33-0.59). In contrast, estimates from the sentinel and three other observational studies, involving a total of 1,226 laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 cases and 1,505 controls, indicated that prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009, with estimated risk or odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 2.5. Risk of pH1N1 hospitalization was not further increased among vaccinated people when comparing hospitalized to community cases. Prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009 in Canada. The occurrence of bias (selection, information) or confounding cannot be ruled out. Further experimental and epidemiological assessment is warranted. Possible biological mechanisms and immunoepidemiologic implications are considered.

Methodological and Design Considerations in Evaluating the Impact of Prevention Programs on Violence and Related Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Massetti, Greta M; Simon, Thomas R; Smith, Deborah Gorman

2016-10-01

Drawing on research that has identified specific predictors and trajectories of risk for violence and related negative outcomes, a multitude of small- and large-scale preventive interventions for specific risk behaviors have been developed, implemented, and evaluated. One of the principal challenges of these approaches is that a number of separate problem-specific programs targeting different risk areas have emerged. However, as many negative health behaviors such as substance abuse and violence share a multitude of risk factors, many programs target identical risk factors. There are opportunities to understand whether evidence-based programs can be leveraged for potential effects across a spectrum of outcomes and over time. Some recent work has documented longitudinal effects of evidence-based interventions on generalized outcomes. This work has potential for advancing our understanding of the effectiveness of promising and evidence-based prevention strategies. However, conducting longitudinal follow-up of established interventions presents a number of methodological and design challenges. To answer some of these questions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a panel of multidisciplinary experts to discuss opportunities to take advantage of evaluations of early prevention programs and evaluating multiple long-term outcomes. This special section of the journal Prevention Science includes a series of papers that begin to address the relevant considerations for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research. This collection of papers is intended to inform our understanding of the challenges and strategies for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research that could be used to drive future research endeavors.

The rationale/design of the Guimarães/Vizela study: a multimodal population-based cohort study to determine global cardiovascular risk and disease.

PubMed

Cunha, Pedro Guimarães; Cotter, Jorge; Oliveira, Pedro; Vila, Isabel; Sousa, Nuno

2014-06-01

Cardiovascular disease and dementia are growing medical and social problems in aging societies. Appropriate knowledge of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline risk factors (RFs) are critical for global CVR health preventive intervention. Many epidemiological studies use case definition based on data collected/measured in a single visit, a fact that can overestimate prevalence rates and distant from clinical practice demanding criteria. Portugal displays an elevated stroke mortality rate. However, population's global CV risk characterization is limited, namely, considering traditional/nontraditional RF and new intermediate phenotypes of CV and renal disease. Association of hemodynamic variables (pulse wave velocity and central blood pressure) with global CVR stratification, cognitive performance, and kidney disease are practically inexistent at a dwelling population level. After reviewing published data, we designed a population-based cohort study to analyze the prevalence of these cardiovascular RFs and intermediate phenotypes, using random sampling of adult dwellers living in 2 adjacent cities. Strict definition of phenotypes was planned: subjects were observed twice, and several hemodynamic and other biological variables measured at least 3 months apart. Three thousand thirty-eight subjects were enrolled, and extensive data collection (including central and peripheral blood pressure, pulse wave velocity), sample processing, and biobank edification were carried out. One thousand forty-seven cognitive evaluations were performed. Seeking for CV risk reclassification, early identification of subjects at risk, and evidence of early vascular aging and cognitive and renal function decline, using the strict daily clinical practice criteria, will lead to better resource allocation in preventive measures at a population level.

My Family Medical History and Me: A pilot feasibility study of a cardiovascular risk reduction intervention

PubMed Central

Imes, Christopher C.; Lewis, Frances M.; Austin, Melissa A.; Dougherty, Cynthia M.

2014-01-01

Objective Evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of a behaviorally-focused intervention designed to increase perceived cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in young adults with a family history (FH) of CVD/CHD. Design Single group, pre-post-test design. Sample Fifteen, mostly female (n=13, 86.7%), White, young adults (mean age 20.8 years) with a minimum of a high school education with a FH of CVD/CHD. Measurements Feasibility examined the recruitment strategy, study procedures, appropriateness and quality of the study instruments, and problems that occurred during delivery of the intervention. Acceptability examined participants' engagement in the in person sessions and at home exercises and their feedback about the intervention. Intervention Two, in person sessions provided personalized, tailored messages about ten-year and lifetime CHD risk based on risk factors, FH from a three-generation pedigree, lipid levels, blood pressure, and smoking status, and brief counseling about how to engage in a healthy lifestyle to decrease CVD/CHD risk. Results The intervention was feasible and acceptable. Participants requested more information on healthy food choices, including which foods to avoid and which exercises most improve cardiovascular health. Conclusions Although requiring refinement, the intervention has potential public health implications and deserves further testing. PMID:24840334

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a web‐based risk score for seven British black and minority ethnic groups

PubMed Central

Brindle, P; May, M; Gill, P; Cappuccio, F; D'Agostino, R; Fischbacher, C; Ebrahim, S

2006-01-01

Objective To recalibrate an existing Framingham risk score to produce a web‐based tool for estimating the 10‐year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in seven British black and minority ethnic groups. Design Risk prediction models were recalibrated against survey data on ethnic group risk factors and disease prevalence compared with the general population. Ethnic‐ and sex‐specific 10‐year risks of CHD and CVD, at the means of the risk factors for each ethnic group, were calculated from the product of the incidence rate in the general population and the prevalence ratios for each ethnic group. Setting Two community‐based surveys. Participants 3778 men and 4544 women, aged 35–54, from the Health Surveys for England 1998 and 1999 and the Wandsworth Heart and Stroke Study. Main outcome measures 10‐year risk of CHD and CVD. Results 10‐year risk of CHD and CVD for non‐smoking people aged 50 years with a systolic blood pressure of 130 mm Hg and a total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio of 4.2 was highest in men for those of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin (CVD risk 12.6% and 12.8%, respectively). CHD risk in men with the same risk factor values was lowest in Caribbeans (2.8%) and CVD risk was lowest in Chinese (5.4%). Women of Pakistani origin were at highest risk and Chinese women at lowest risk for both outcomes with CVD risks of 6.6% and 1.2%, respectively. A web‐based risk calculator (ETHRISK) allows 10‐year risks to be estimated in routine primary care settings for relevant risk factor and ethnic group combinations. Conclusions In the absence of cohort studies in the UK that include significant numbers of black and minority ethnic groups, this risk score provides a pragmatic solution to including people from diverse ethnic backgrounds in the primary prevention of CVD. PMID:16762981

An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

2015-11-15

There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Exposure Knowledge and Perception of Wireless Communication Technologies.

PubMed

Freudenstein, Frederik; Correia, Luis M; Oliveira, Carla; Sebastião, Daniel; Wiedemann, Peter M

2015-11-06

The presented survey investigates risk and exposure perceptions of radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMF) associated with base stations, mobile phones and other sources, the key issue being the interaction between both sets of perceptions. The study is based on a cross-sectional design, and conducted with an online sample of 838 citizens from Portugal. The results indicate that respondents' intuitive exposure perception differs from the actual exposure levels. Furthermore, exposure and risk perceptions are found to be highly correlated. Respondents' beliefs about exposure factors, which might influence possible health risks, is appropriate. A regression analysis between exposure characteristics, as predictor variables, and RF EMF risk perception, as the response variable, indicates that people seem to use simple heuristics to form their perceptions. What is bigger, more frequent and longer lasting is seen as riskier. Moreover, the quality of exposure knowledge is not an indicator for amplified EMF risk perception. These findings show that exposure perception is key to future risk communication.

Exposure Knowledge and Perception of Wireless Communication Technologies

PubMed Central

Freudenstein, Frederik; Correia, Luis M.; Oliveira, Carla; Sebastião, Daniel; Wiedemann, Peter M.

2015-01-01

The presented survey investigates risk and exposure perceptions of radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMF) associated with base stations, mobile phones and other sources, the key issue being the interaction between both sets of perceptions. The study is based on a cross-sectional design, and conducted with an online sample of 838 citizens from Portugal. The results indicate that respondents’ intuitive exposure perception differs from the actual exposure levels. Furthermore, exposure and risk perceptions are found to be highly correlated. Respondents’ beliefs  about exposure factors, which might influence possible health risks, is appropriate. A regression analysis between exposure characteristics, as predictor variables, and RF EMF risk perception, as the response variable, indicates that people seem to use simple heuristics to form their perceptions. What is bigger, more frequent and longer lasting is seen as riskier. Moreover, the quality of exposure knowledge is not an indicator for amplified EMF risk perception. These findings show that exposure perception is key to future risk communication. PMID:26561826

Design Tools for Reconfigurable Hardware in Orbit (RHinO)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, Mathew; Graham, Paul; Wirthlin, Michael; Larchev, Gregory; Bellows, Peter; Schott, Brian

2004-01-01

The Reconfigurable Hardware in Orbit (RHinO) project is focused on creating a set of design tools that facilitate and automate design techniques for reconfigurable computing in space, using SRAM-based field-programmable-gate-array (FPGA) technology. These tools leverage an established FPGA design environment and focus primarily on space effects mitigation and power optimization. The project is creating software to automatically test and evaluate the single-event-upsets (SEUs) sensitivities of an FPGA design and insert mitigation techniques. Extensions into the tool suite will also allow evolvable algorithm techniques to reconfigure around single-event-latchup (SEL) events. In the power domain, tools are being created for dynamic power visualiization and optimization. Thus, this technology seeks to enable the use of Reconfigurable Hardware in Orbit, via an integrated design tool-suite aiming to reduce risk, cost, and design time of multimission reconfigurable space processors using SRAM-based FPGAs.

Advanced Design Methodology for Robust Aircraft Sizing and Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mavris, Dimitri N.

1997-01-01

Contract efforts are focused on refining the Robust Design Methodology for Conceptual Aircraft Design. Robust Design Simulation (RDS) was developed earlier as a potential solution to the need to do rapid trade-offs while accounting for risk, conflict, and uncertainty. The core of the simulation revolved around Response Surface Equations as approximations of bounded design spaces. An ongoing investigation is concerned with the advantages of using Neural Networks in conceptual design. Thought was also given to the development of systematic way to choose or create a baseline configuration based on specific mission requirements. Expert system was developed, which selects aerodynamics, performance and weights model from several configurations based on the user's mission requirements for subsonic civil transport. The research has also resulted in a step-by-step illustration on how to use the AMV method for distribution generation and the search for robust design solutions to multivariate constrained problems.

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

2011-01-01

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Multisite effectiveness trials of treatments for substance abuse and co-occurring problems: have we chosen the best designs?

PubMed

Nunes, Edward V; Ball, Samuel; Booth, Robert; Brigham, Gregory; Calsyn, Donald A; Carroll, Kathleen; Feaster, Daniel J; Hien, Denise; Hubbard, Robert L; Ling, Walter; Petry, Nancy M; Rotrosen, John; Selzer, Jeffrey; Stitzer, Maxine; Tross, Susan; Wakim, Paul; Winhusen, Theresa; Woody, George

2010-06-01

Multisite effectiveness trials such as those carried out in the National Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network (CTN) are a critical step in the development and dissemination of evidence-based treatments because they address how such treatments perform in real-world clinical settings. As Brigham et al. summarized in a recent article (G. S. Brigham, D. J. Feaster, P. G. Wakim, & C. L. Dempsey C. L., 2009), several possible experimental designs may be chosen for such effectiveness trials. These include (a) a new treatment intervention (Tx) is compared to an existing mode of community based treatment as usual (TAU): Tx versus TAU; (b) a new intervention is added to TAU and compared to TAU alone: Tx + TAU versus TAU; or (c) a new intervention is added to TAU and compared to a control condition added to TAU: Tx + TAU versus control + TAU. Each of these designs addresses a different question and has different potential strengths and weaknesses. As of December 2009, the primary outcome paper had been published for 16 of the multisite randomized clinical trials conducted in the CTN, testing various treatments for drug abuse, HIV risk behavior, or related problems. This paper systematically examines, for each of the completed trials, the experimental design type chosen and its original rationale, the main findings of the trial, and the strengths and weaknesses of the design in hindsight. Based on this review, recommendations are generated to inform the design of future effectiveness trials on treatments for substance abuse, HIV risk, and other behavioral health problems.

Information and Risk Modification Trial (INFORM): design of a randomised controlled trial of communicating different types of information about coronary heart disease risk, alongside lifestyle advice, to achieve change in health-related behaviour.

PubMed

Silarova, Barbora; Lucas, Joanne; Butterworth, Adam S; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Girling, Christine; Lawrence, Kathryn; Mackintosh, Stuart; Moore, Carmel; Payne, Rupert A; Sharp, Stephen J; Shefer, Guy; Tolkien, Zoe; Usher-Smith, Juliet; Walker, Matthew; Danesh, John; Griffin, Simon

2015-09-07

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Primary prevention of CVD requires cost-effective strategies to identify individuals at high risk in order to help target preventive interventions. An integral part of this approach is the use of CVD risk scores. Limitations in previous studies have prevented reliable inference about the potential advantages and the potential harms of using CVD risk scores as part of preventive strategies. We aim to evaluate short-term effects of providing different types of information about coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, alongside lifestyle advice, on health-related behaviours. In a parallel-group, open randomised trial, we are allocating 932 male and female blood donors with no previous history of CVD aged 40-84 years in England to either no intervention (control group) or to one of three active intervention groups: i) lifestyle advice only; ii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic characteristics; and iii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic and genetic characteristics. The primary outcome is change in objectively measured physical activity. Secondary outcomes include: objectively measured dietary behaviours; cardiovascular risk factors; current medication and healthcare usage; perceived risk; cognitive evaluation of provision of CHD risk scores; and psychological outcomes. The follow-up assessment takes place 12 weeks after randomisation. The experiences, attitudes and concerns of a subset of participants will be also studied using individual interviews and focus groups. The INFORM study has been designed to provide robust findings about the short-term effects of providing different types of information on estimated 10-year CHD risk and lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237 . Registered 12 January 2015.

The South Asian heart lifestyle intervention (SAHELI) study to improve cardiovascular risk factors in a community setting: Design and methods

PubMed Central

Kandula, Namratha R.; Patel, Yasin; Dave, Swapna; Seguil, Paola; Kumar, Santosh; Baker, David W.; Spring, Bonnie; Siddique, Juned

2013-01-01

Disseminating and implementing evidence-based, cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention lifestyle interventions in community settings and in ethnic minority populations is a challenge. We describe the design and methods for the South Asian heart lifestyle intervention (SAHELI) study, a pilot study designed to determine the feasibility and initial efficacy of a culturally-targeted, community-based lifestyle intervention to improve physical activity and diet behaviors among medically underserved South Asians (SAs). Participants with at least one CVD risk factor will be randomized to either a lifestyle intervention or a control group. Participants in both groups will be screened in a community setting and receive a primary care referral after randomization. Intervention participants will receive 6 weeks of group classes, followed by 12 weeks of individual telephone support where they will be encouraged to initiate and maintain a healthy lifestyle goal. Control participants will receive their screening results and monthly mailings on CVD prevention. Primary outcomes will be changes in moderate/vigorous physical activity and saturated fat intake between baseline, 3-, and 6-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes will be changes in weight, clinical risk factors, primary care visits, self-efficacy, and social support. This study will be one of the first to pilot-test a lifestyle intervention for SAs, one of the fastest growing racial/ethnic groups in the U.S. and one with disparate CVD risk. Results of this pilot study will provide preliminary data about the efficacy of a lifestyle intervention on CVD risk in SAs and inform community-engaged CVD prevention efforts in an increasingly diverse U.S. population. PMID:24060673

Designing a Community-Based Population Health Model.

PubMed

Durovich, Christopher J; Roberts, Peter W

2018-02-01

The pace of change from volume-based to value-based payment in health care varies dramatically among markets. Regardless of the ultimate disposition of the Affordable Care Act, employers and public-private payers will continue to increase pressure on health care providers to assume financial risk for populations in the form of shared savings, bundled payments, downside risk, or even capitation. This article outlines a suggested road map and practical considerations for health systems that are building or planning to build population health capabilities to meet the needs of their local markets. The authors review the traditional core capabilities needed to address the medical determinants of health for a population. They also share an innovative approach to community service integration to address the social determinants of health and the engagement of families to improve their own health and well-being. The foundational approach is to connect insurance products, the health care delivery system, and community service agencies around the family's well-being goals using human-centered design strategy.

An update on risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis assessed using MRI-based semiquantitative grading methods.

PubMed

Alizai, Hamza; Roemer, Frank W; Hayashi, Daichi; Crema, Michel D; Felson, David T; Guermazi, Ali

2015-03-01

Arthroscopy-based semiquantitative scoring systems such as Outerbridge and Noyes' scores were the first to be developed for the purpose of grading cartilage defects. As magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) became available for evaluation of the osteoarthritic knee joint, these systems were adapted for use with MRI. Later on, grading methods such as the Whole Organ Magnetic Resonance Score, the Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score and the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score were designed specifically for performing whole-organ assessment of the knee joint structures, including cartilage. Cartilage grades on MRI obtained with these scoring systems represent optimal outcome measures for longitudinal studies, and are designed to enhance understanding of the knee osteoarthritis disease process. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe cartilage assessment in knee osteoarthritis using currently available MRI-based semiquantitative whole-organ scoring systems, and to provide an update on the risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis as assessed with these scoring systems.

The safer clinical systems project in renal care.

PubMed

Weale, Andy R

2013-09-01

Current systems in place in healthcare are designed to detect harm after it has happened (e.g critical incident reports) and make recommendations based on an assessment of that event. Safer Clinical Systems, a Health Foundation funded project, is designed to proactively search for risk within systems, rather than being reactive to harm. The aim of the Safer Clinical Systems project in Renal Care was to reduce the risks associated with shared care for patients who are undergoing surgery but are looked after peri-operatively by nephrology teams on nephrology wards. This report details our findings of the diagnostic phase of Safer Clinical Systems: the proactive search for risk. We have evaluated the current system of care using a set of risk evaluation and process mapping tools (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Hierarchical Task Analysis HTA). We have engaged staff with the process mapping and risk assessment tools. We now understand our system and understand where the highest risk tasks are undertaken during a renal in-patient stay during which a patient has an operation. These key tasks occur across the perioperaive period and are not confined to one aspect of care. A measurement strategy and intervention plan have been designed around these tasks. Safer Clinical Systems has identified high risk, low reliability tasks in our system. We look forward to fully reporting these data in 2014. © 2013 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Refining and validating a two-stage and web-based cancer risk assessment tool for village doctors in China.

PubMed

Shen, Xing-Rong; Chai, Jing; Feng, Rui; Liu, Tong-Zhu; Tong, Gui-Xian; Cheng, Jing; Li, Kai-Chun; Xie, Shao-Yu; Shi, Yong; Wang, De-Bin

2014-01-01

The big gap between efficacy of population level prevention and expectations due to heterogeneity and complexity of cancer etiologic factors calls for selective yet personalized interventions based on effective risk assessment. This paper documents our research protocol aimed at refining and validating a two-stage and web- based cancer risk assessment tool, from a tentative one in use by an ongoing project, capable of identifying individuals at elevated risk for one or more types of the 80% leading cancers in rural China with adequate sensitivity and specificity and featuring low cost, easy application and cultural and technical sensitivity for farmers and village doctors. The protocol adopted a modified population-based case control design using 72, 000 non-patients as controls, 2, 200 cancer patients as cases, and another 600 patients as cases for external validation. Factors taken into account comprised 8 domains including diet and nutrition, risk behaviors, family history, precancerous diseases, related medical procedures, exposure to environment hazards, mood and feelings, physical activities and anthropologic and biologic factors. Modeling stresses explored various methodologies like empirical analysis, logistic regression, neuro-network analysis, decision theory and both internal and external validation using concordance statistics, predictive values, etc..

Potential for adult-based epidemiological studies to characterize overall cancer risks associated with a lifetime of CT scans.

PubMed

Shuryak, Igor; Lubin, Jay H; Brenner, David J

2014-06-01

Recent epidemiological studies have suggested that radiation exposure from pediatric CT scanning is associated with small excess cancer risks. However, the majority of CT scans are performed on adults, and most radiation-induced cancers appear during middle or old age, in the same age range as background cancers. Consequently, a logical next step is to investigate the effects of CT scanning in adulthood on lifetime cancer risks by conducting adult-based, appropriately designed epidemiological studies. Here we estimate the sample size required for such studies to detect CT-associated risks. This was achieved by incorporating different age-, sex-, time- and cancer type-dependent models of radiation carcinogenesis into an in silico simulation of a population-based cohort study. This approach simulated individual histories of chest and abdominal CT exposures, deaths and cancer diagnoses. The resultant sample sizes suggest that epidemiological studies of realistically sized cohorts can detect excess lifetime cancer risks from adult CT exposures. For example, retrospective analysis of CT exposure and cancer incidence data from a population-based cohort of 0.4 to 1.3 million (depending on the carcinogenic model) CT-exposed UK adults, aged 25-65 in 1980 and followed until 2015, provides 80% power for detecting cancer risks from chest and abdominal CT scans.

The Future of Additive Manufacturing in Air Force Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-22

manufacturing data - Designing and deploying a virtual aircraft fleet for future conflict - Space-based satellite production for defense capabilities via...changing system design via lower production costs, enhanced performance possibilities, and rapid replenishment. In the Technology Maturation and Risk... manufacturing as well as major cost savings via reduction of required materials, unique tooling, specialized production plans, and segments of the

The Reading Wars and Reading Recovery: What Educators, Families, and Taxpayers Should Know

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cook, Pamela; Rodes, Deborah R.; Lipsitz, Kay L.

2017-01-01

Reading Recovery, a meaning-based reading program designed for young children at risk of reading failure, is widely implemented across the United States. We discuss the recent Reading Recovery $45 million four-year i3-funded scaleup study that was designed to "cover the expansion of Reading Recovery around the U.S." (May, Sirinides,…

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Extreme umbilical cord lengths, cord knot and entanglement: Risk factors and risk of adverse outcomes, a population-based study

PubMed Central

Kessler, Jörg

2018-01-01

Objectives To determine risk factors for short and long umbilical cord, entanglement and knot. Explore their associated risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcome, including risk of recurrence in a subsequent pregnancy. To provide population based gestational age and sex and parity specific reference ranges for cord length. Design Population based registry study. Setting Medical Birth Registry of Norway 1999–2013. Population All singleton births (gestational age>22weeks<45 weeks) (n = 856 300). Methods Descriptive statistics and odds ratios of risk factors for extreme cord length and adverse outcomes based on logistic regression adjusted for confounders. Main outcome measures Short or long cord (<10th or >90th percentile), cord knot and entanglement, adverse pregnancy outcomes including perinatal and intrauterine death. Results Increasing parity, maternal height and body mass index, and diabetes were associated with increased risk of a long cord. Large placental and birth weight, and fetal male sex were factors for a long cord, which again was associated with a doubled risk of intrauterine and perinatal death, and increased risk of adverse neonatal outcome. Anomalous cord insertion, female sex, and a small placenta were associated with a short cord, which was associated with increased risk of fetal malformations, placental complications, caesarean delivery, non-cephalic presentation, perinatal and intrauterine death. At term, cord knot was associated with a quadrupled risk of perinatal death. The combination of a cord knot and entanglement had a more than additive effect to the association to perinatal death. There was a more than doubled risk of recurrence of a long or short cord, knot and entanglement in a subsequent pregnancy of the same woman. Conclusion Cord length is influenced both by maternal and fetal factors, and there is increased risk of recurrence. Extreme cord length, entanglement and cord knot are associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes including perinatal death. We provide population based reference ranges for umbilical cord length. PMID:29584790

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

PubMed

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

NEV supply chain coordination and sustainability considering sales effort and risk aversion under the CVaR criterion

PubMed Central

Xu, Xingzhong

2018-01-01

In a two-echelon new energy vehicle (NEV) supply chain consisting of a risk-neutral manufacturer and a risk-averse retailer, the coordination and sustainability problem is investigated. The risk-averse retailer, who makes sales effort and undertakes the incurred effort cost, decides the order quantity and sales effort level under the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) criterion. We derive the optimal centralized decisions of a vertically integrated supply chain where the retailer is owned by the manufacturer. Taking such a centralized case as the benchmark, we prove that the subsidy-sharing-based wholesale price (SS-WP) contract fails to coordinate the NEV supply chain under the decentralized case where the retailer makes decisions independently. Then we design a subsidy-sharing-based sales rebate/penalty (SS-SRP) contract and derive the contract parameters to achieve coordination. We evaluate the coordination efficiency of this contract and find that a well-designed SS-SRP contract can promote the NEV sales and lead to a Pareto-improving win-win situation for both the NEV manufacturer and retailer compared to the non-coordination case. A series of numerical experiments are carried out to compare the effects of significant parameters under the SS-WP and SS-SRP contract and provide additional observations and implications, including an indication of the necessary conditions to sustainably maintain the NEV supply chain. PMID:29912926

Meta-Analysis of the Association between Tea Intake and the Risk of Cognitive Disorders

PubMed Central

Ma, Qing-Ping; Huang, Chen; Cui, Qiao-Yun; Yang, Ding-Jun; Sun, Kang; Chen, Xuan; Li, Xing-Hui

2016-01-01

Background Alzheimer’s disease is a common neurodegenerative disorder in elderly. This study was aimed to systematically evaluate the association between tea intake and the risk of cognitive disorders by meta-analysis. Methods and Findings PubMed, Embase and Wanfang databases were systematically searched and a total of 26 observational studies were included in this study. Odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and pooled by using fixed or random effects models according to the degree of heterogeneity. Results The overall pooled analysis indicated that tea intake could significantly reduce the risk of cognitive disorders (OR = 0.65, 95%CI = 0.58–0.73). Subgroup analyses were conducted based on study design, population, frequency of tea drinking and type of cognitive disorders. The results showed that tea drinking was significantly associated with the reduced incidence of cognitive disorders in all of subgroups based on study design and frequency of tea drinking. In particular, tea drinking was inversely associated with the risk of cognitive impairment (CoI), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), cognitive decline and ungrouped cognitive disorders. Moreover, for population subgroups, the significant association was only found in Chinese people. Conclusion Our study suggests that daily tea drinking is associated with decreased risk of CoI, MCI and cognitive decline in the elderly. However, the association between tea intake and Alzheimer’s disease remains elusive. PMID:27824892

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

Design and baseline characteristics of the PerfectFit study: a multicenter cluster-randomized trial of a lifestyle intervention in employees with increased cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Kouwenhoven-Pasmooij, Tessa A; Djikanovic, Bosiljka; Robroek, Suzan J W; Helmhout, Pieter; Burdorf, Alex; Hunink, M G Myriam

2015-07-28

The prevalence of unhealthy lifestyles and preventable chronic diseases is high. They lead to disabilities and sickness absence, which might be reduced if health promotion measures were applied. Therefore, we developed the PerfectFit health promotion intervention with a "blended care"-approach, which consists of a web-based health risk assessment (HRA) including tailored and personalized advice, followed by motivational interviewing (MI). We hypothesize that adding MI to a web-based HRA leads to better health outcomes. The objective is to describe the design and baseline characteristics of the PerfectFit study, which is being conducted among employees with high cardiovascular risk in the military workforce, the police organization and an academic hospital. PerfectFit is a cluster randomized controlled trial, consisting of two arms. Based on cardiovascular risk profiling, done between 2012 and 2014, we included employees based on one or more risk factors and motivation to participate. One arm is the 'limited' health program (control) that consists of: (a) an HRA as a decision aid for lifestyle changes, including tailored and personalized advice, and pros and cons of the options, and (b) a newsletter every 3 months. The other arm is the 'extensive' program (intervention), which is additionally offered MI-sessions by trained occupational physicians, 4 face-to-face and 3 by telephone, and is offered more choices of health promotion activities in the HRA. During the follow-up period, participants choose the health promotion activities they personally prefer. After six and twelve months, outcomes will be assessed by online questionnaires. After twelve months the cardiovascular risk profiling will be repeated. The primary outcome is self-reported general health. Secondary outcomes are self-reported work ability, CVD-risk score, sickness absence, productivity loss at work, participation in health promotion activities, changes in lifestyle (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, stress management) and body mass index. Furthermore, a process evaluation and an economic analysis will be performed. Additional coaching using MI is expected to be a key factor for success of the web-based HRA in employees with increased cardiovascular risk. This "blended care"-approach may be an essential strategy for effective health promotion activities. Dutch Trial Register by registration number NTR4894 , 14/11/2014.

The cost risk implementation on design-build project of integrated public spaces child friendly in capital of Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mardiaman, Mubarok, Abdul

2017-11-01

Jakarta area of 662.33 km2 with a population of 10,075,030 inhabitants and green open spaces 9.98%. The Jakarta government built a child-friendly integrated open space as facilities for playing. Providing of facilities was hoped suitable with time, cost, quality, accountability and proper financial governance. Based on the PU ministerial regulation number 19/PRT/M/2015 on the standards and guidelines for procurement the design and construction work on the integrated build and the PU ministerial regulation No. 07/PRT/M/2011 on standards and guidelines for procurement of construction works and consulting services of public works and the ministry of housing. RPTRA development at 123 locations in Jakarta was implemented base on the contract of design and build. The design study was influenced by the cost elements; the main strength (expert), skilled personnel, support personnel, major equipment and support. The construction fee relies on; expert implementation, hardware implementation, preparation work, land, buildings, courtyards, fences, complementary and governance capabilities for human resources in completing the construction activities to minimize the cost risk. Montecarlo simulations was conducted to determine the average unit price, model and analyze systems. In the cost contract, the percentage of design work stipulated 2.5%, build 97.5%. Base on regulation the minister of public work for design work cost 2.72%, build 97.28%. Then, actual cost for design 2.67% and build 97.33%. From the three reference was shown that there are differentiation one another. The acceleration of planning able to make the cost and time more efficient that impact on the implementation margin.

Breast Cancer--Screening Behavior among Rural California American Indian Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodge, Felicia Schanche

2009-01-01

A community-based Wellness Circles Program was designed and implemented at 13 sites in California to evaluate a culturally appropriate community-based health care model for American Indian families. Data obtained from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) that was administered to a subset of women demonstrate that American Indian…

Changing Attitudes and Emotions toward Coyotes with Experiential Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sponarski, Carly C.; Vaske, Jerry J.; Bath, Alistair J.; Loeffler, TA

2016-01-01

An experiential education program was designed to target risk perceptions and preventative measures that make people feel comfortable in human-coyote interactions. The research was conducted in a Canadian national park where a coyote caused a human fatality in 2009. Based on previous research, we explored the effects of an experience-based coyote…

Alcohol demand and risk preference

PubMed Central

Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

2008-01-01

Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6–8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use. PMID:19956353

CREATE Wellness: A multi-component behavioral intervention for patients not responding to traditional Cardiovascular disease management.

PubMed

Miller-Rosales, Chris; Sterling, Stacy A; Wood, Sabrina B; Ross, Thekla; Makki, Mojdeh; Zamudio, Cindy; Kane, Irene M; Richardson, Megan C; Samayoa, Claudia; Charvat-Aguilar, Nancy; Lu, Wendy Y; Vo, Michelle; Whelan, Kimberly; Uratsu, Connie S; Grant, Richard W

2017-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the US. Many patients do not benefit from traditional disease management approaches to CVD risk reduction. Here we describe the rationale, development, and implementation of a multi-component behavioral intervention targeting patients who have persistently not met goals of CVD risk factor control. Informed by published evidence, relevant theoretical frameworks, stakeholder advice, and patient input, we developed a group-based intervention (Changing Results: Engage and Activate to Enhance Wellness; "CREATE Wellness") to address the complex needs of patients with elevated or unmeasured CVD-related risk factors. We are testing this intervention in a randomized trial among patients with persistent (i.e > 2 years) sub-optimal risk factor control despite being enrolled in an advanced and highly successful CVD disease management program. The CREATE Wellness intervention is designed as a 3 session, group-based intervention combining proven elements of patient activation, health system engagement skills training, shared decision making, care planning, and identification of lifestyle change barriers. Our key learnings in designing the intervention included the value of multi-level stakeholder input and the importance of pragmatic skills training to address barriers to care. The CREATE Wellness intervention represents an evidence-based, patient-centered approach for patients not responding to traditional disease management. The trial is currently underway at three medical facilities within Kaiser Permanente Northern California and next steps include an evaluation of efficacy, adaptation for non-English speaking patient populations, and modification of the curriculum for web- or phone-based versions. NCT02302612.

The GoodNEWS (Genes, Nutrition, Exercise, Wellness, and Spiritual Growth) Trial: a community-based participatory research (CBPR) trial with African-American church congregations for reducing cardiovascular disease risk factors--recruitment, measurement, and randomization.

PubMed

DeHaven, Mark J; Ramos-Roman, Maria A; Gimpel, Nora; Carson, JoAnn; DeLemos, James; Pickens, Sue; Simmons, Chris; Powell-Wiley, Tiffany; Banks-Richard, Kamakki; Shuval, Kerem; Duvahl, Julie; Duval, Julie; Tong, Liyue; Hsieh, Natalie; Lee, Jenny J

2011-09-01

Although cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death among Americans, significant disparities persist in CVD prevalence, morbidity, and mortality based on race and ethnicity. However, few studies have examined risk factor reduction among the poor and ethnic minorities. Community-based participatory research (CBPR) study using a cluster randomized design--African-American church congregations are the units of randomization and individuals within the congregations are the units of analysis. Outcome variables include dietary change (Diet History Questionnaire), level of physical activity (7-Day Physical Activity Recall), lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, fasting glucose, and hemoglobin A1c. Eighteen (18) church congregations were randomized to either a health maintenance intervention or a control condition. Complete data were obtained on 392 African-American individuals, 18 to 70 years of age, predominantly employed women with more than a high school diploma. Treatment and intervention groups were similar at baseline on saturated fat intake, metabolic equivalent of tasks (METS) per day, and other risk factors for CVD. The GoodNEWS trial successfully recruited and evaluated CVD-related risk among African-American participants using a CBPR approach. Several logistical challenges resulted in extending the recruitment, preliminary training, and measurement periods. The challenges were overcome with the assistance of a local community consultant and a professional event planner. Our experience supports the need for incorporating non-traditional community-based staff into the design and operational plan of CBPR trials. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A large-scale measurement of electromagnetic fields near GSM base stations in Guangxi, China for risk communication.

PubMed

Wu, Tongning; Shao, Qing; Yang, Lei; Qi, Dianyuan; Lin, Jun; Lin, Xiaojun; Yu, Zongying

2013-06-01

Radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure from wireless telecommunication base station antennae can lead to debates, conflicts or litigations among the adjacent residents if inappropriately managed. This paper presents a measurement campaign for the GSM band EMF exposure in the vicinity of 827 base station sites (totally 6207 measurement points) in Guangxi, China. Measurement specifications are designed for risk communication with the residents who previously complained of over-exposure. The EMF power densities with the global positioning system coordinate at each measured point were recorded. Compliance with the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection guidelines and Chinese environmental EMF safety standards was studied. The results show that the GSM band EMF level near the base stations is very low. The measurement results and the EMF risk communication procedures positively influence public perception of the RF EMF exposure from the base stations and promote the exchange of EMF exposure-related knowledge.

The Tool for Designing Engineering Systems Using a New Optimization Method Based on a Stochastic Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Katsuhito; Ishikawa, Yoshio

The conventional optimization methods were based on a deterministic approach, since their purpose is to find out an exact solution. However, these methods have initial condition dependence and risk of falling into local solution. In this paper, we propose a new optimization method based on a concept of path integral method used in quantum mechanics. The method obtains a solutions as an expected value (stochastic average) using a stochastic process. The advantages of this method are not to be affected by initial conditions and not to need techniques based on experiences. We applied the new optimization method to a design of the hang glider. In this problem, not only the hang glider design but also its flight trajectory were optimized. The numerical calculation results showed that the method has a sufficient performance.

Evaluation of a Drowning Prevention Program Based on Testimonial Videos: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Shen, Jiabin; Pang, Shulan; Schwebel, David C

2016-06-01

Unintentional drowning is the most common cause of childhood death in rural China. Global intervention efforts offer mixed results regarding the efficacy of educational programs. Using a randomized controlled design, we evaluated a testimonial-based intervention to reduce drowning risk among 280 3rd- and 4th-grade rural Chinese children. Children were randomly assigned to view either testimonials on drowning risk (intervention) or dog-bite risk (control). Safety knowledge and perceived vulnerability were measured by self-report questionnaires, and simulated behaviors in and near water were assessed with a culturally appropriate dollhouse task. Children in the intervention group had improved children's safety knowledge and simulated behaviors but not perceived vulnerability compared with controls. The testimonial-based intervention's efficacy appears promising, as it improved safety knowledge and simulated risk behaviors with water among rural Chinese children. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Korean Ministry of Environment's web-based visual consumer product exposure and risk assessment system (COPER).

PubMed

Lee, Hunjoo; Lee, Kiyoung; Park, Ji Young; Min, Sung-Gi

2017-05-01

With support from the Korean Ministry of the Environment (ME), our interdisciplinary research staff developed the COnsumer Product Exposure and Risk assessment system (COPER). This system includes various databases and features that enable the calculation of exposure and determination of risk caused by consumer products use. COPER is divided into three tiers: the integrated database layer (IDL), the domain specific service layer (DSSL), and the exposure and risk assessment layer (ERAL). IDL is organized by the form of the raw data (mostly non-aggregated data) and includes four sub-databases: a toxicity profile, an inventory of Korean consumer products, the weight fractions of chemical substances in the consumer products determined by chemical analysis and national representative exposure factors. DSSL provides web-based information services corresponding to each database within IDL. Finally, ERAL enables risk assessors to perform various exposure and risk assessments, including exposure scenario design via either inhalation or dermal contact by using or organizing each database in an intuitive manner. This paper outlines the overall architecture of the system and highlights some of the unique features of COPER based on visual and dynamic rendering engine for exposure assessment model on web.

Perceptions of environmental health risks among residents in the "Toxic Doughnut": opportunities for risk screening and community mobilization.

PubMed

White, Brandi M; Hall, Eric S

2015-12-10

Surrounded by landfills, and toxic and hazardous facilities, Altgeld Gardens is located in a "toxic doughnut". With high rates of environmentally-related conditions, residents have called for a community-based environmental health assessment to improve overall health in their community. The purpose of this study was to investigate the attitudes and beliefs of environmental health risks of Altgeld's residents which would assist community organizing efforts and provide the groundwork for a community-based environmental health assessment. A questionnaire was designed and administered to 42 Altgeld residents who also participated in focus groups to assess their perceptions of environmental health risks. All participants were Altgeld residents for at least two years and were fairly representative of the broader community. Physical and social hazards were primarily identified as posing risks to participants' family and the broader community. Physical hazards included the dumping of hazardous waste and landfills; social hazards were crime and drugs. These findings have been useful in community organizing efforts and in program planning for local community-based organizations and public health agencies. The results have also been used to prioritize health and environmental risk issues impacting the community.

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

2017-07-20

For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optical System Design for the Next Generation Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, Leonard H. (Principal Investigator); Kahan, Mark A.

1996-01-01

This report provides considerations and suggested approaches for design of the Optical Telescope Assembly and the segmented primary mirror of a Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST). Based on prior studies and hardware development, we provide data and design information on low-risk materials and hardware configurations most likely to meet low weight, low temperature and long-life requirements of the nominal 8-meter aperture NGST. We also provide preliminary data for cost and performance trades, and recommendations for technology development and demonstration required to support the system design effort.

Introduction to Building Systems Performance: Houses That Work II. Revised February 2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2005-03-01

Buildings should be suited to their environments. Design and construction must be responsive to varying seismic risks, wind loads, and snow loads, as well as soil conditions, frost depth, orientation, and solar radiation. In addition, building envelopes and mechanical systems should be designed for a specific hygro-thermal regions, rain exposure, and interior climate. The Building Science Consortium (BSC) design recommendations are based on the hygro-thermal regions with reference to the annual rainfall. Local climate must be addressed if it differs significantly from the climate described for a particular design.

A Preliminary Study on the Efficacy of a Community-Based Physical Activity Intervention on Physical Function-Related Risk Factors for Falls among Breast Cancer Survivors

PubMed Central

Lee, C. Ellen; Warden, Stuart J.; Szuck, Beth; Lau, Y.K. James

2015-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a 6-week community-based physical activity (PA) intervention on physical function-related risk factors for falls among 56 breast cancer survivors (BCS) who had completed treatments. Design This was a single-group longitudinal study. The multimodal PA intervention included aerobic, strengthening and balance components. Physical function outcomes based on the 4-meter walk, chair stand, one-leg stance, tandem walk, and dynamic muscular endurance tests were assessed at 6-week pre-intervention (T1), baseline (T2), and post-intervention (T3). T1-T2 and T2-T3 were the control and intervention periods, respectively. Results All outcomes, except the tandem walk test, significantly improved after the intervention period (p < 0.05), with no change detected after the control period (p > 0.05). Based on the falls risk criterion in the one-leg stance test, the proportion at risk for falls was significantly lower after the intervention period (p = 0.04), but not after the control period. Conclusions A community-based multimodal PA intervention for BCS may be efficacious in improving physical function-related risk factors for falls, and lowering the proportion of BCS at risk for falls based on specific physical function-related falls criteria. Further larger trials are needed to confirm these preliminary findings. PMID:26829081

RiskScape: a new tool for comparing risk from natural hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stirling, M. W.; King, A.

2010-12-01

The Regional RiskScape is New Zealand’s joint venture between GNS Science & NIWA, and represents a comprehensive and easy-to-use tool for multi-hazard-based risk and impact analysis. It has basic GIS functionality, in that it has Import/Export functions to use with GIS software. Five natural hazards have been implemented in Riskscape to date: Flood (river), earthquake, volcano (ash), tsunami and wind storm. The software converts hazard exposure information into the likely impacts for a region, for example, damage and replacement costs, casualties, economic losses, disruption, and number of people affected. It therefore can be used to assist with risk management, land use planning, building codes and design, risk identification, prioritization of risk-reduction/mitigation, determination of “best use” risk-reduction investment, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness raising, public information, realistic scenarios for exercises, and hazard event response. Three geographically disparate pilot regions have been used to develop and triall Riskscape in New Zealand, and each region is exposed to a different mix of natural hazards. Future (phase II) development of Riskscape will include the following hazards: Landslides (both rainfall and earthquake triggered), storm surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars, and climate change effects. While Riskscape developments have thus far focussed on scenario-based risk, future developments will advance the software into providing probabilistic-based solutions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep

Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs) can provide the United States with a safe, sustainable, and carbon-neutral energy source. The controllable day-to-day costs of aSMRs are expected to be dominated by operation and maintenance costs. Health and condition assessment coupled with online risk monitors can potentially enhance affordability of aSMRs through optimized operational planning and maintenance scheduling. Currently deployed risk monitors are an extension of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For complex engineered systems like nuclear power plants, PRA systematically combines event likelihoods and the probability of failure (POF) of key components, so that when combined with the magnitude of possible adversemore » consequences to determine risk. Traditional PRA uses population-based POF information to estimate the average plant risk over time. Currently, most nuclear power plants have a PRA that reflects the as-operated, as-modified plant; this model is updated periodically, typically once a year. Risk monitors expand on living PRA by incorporating changes in the day-by-day plant operation and configuration (e.g., changes in equipment availability, operating regime, environmental conditions). However, population-based POF (or population- and time-based POF) is still used to populate fault trees. Health monitoring techniques can be used to establish condition indicators and monitoring capabilities that indicate the component-specific POF at a desired point in time (or over a desired period), which can then be incorporated in the risk monitor to provide a more accurate estimate of the plant risk in different configurations. This is particularly important for active systems, structures, and components (SSCs) proposed for use in aSMR designs. These SSCs may differ significantly from those used in the operating fleet of light-water reactors (or even in LWR-based SMR designs). Additionally, the operating characteristics of aSMRs can present significantly different requirements, including the need to operate in different coolant environments, higher operating temperatures, and longer operating cycles between planned refueling and maintenance outages. These features, along with the relative lack of operating experience for some of the proposed advanced designs, may limit the ability to estimate event probability and component POF with a high degree of certainty. Incorporating real-time estimates of component POF may compensate for a relative lack of established knowledge about the long-term component behavior and improve operational and maintenance planning and optimization. The particular eccentricities of advanced reactors and small modular reactors provide unique challenges and needs for advanced instrumentation, control, and human-machine interface (ICHMI) techniques such as enhanced risk monitors (ERM) in aSMRs. Several features of aSMR designs increase the need for accurate characterization of the real-time risk during operation and maintenance activities. A number of technical gaps in realizing ERM exist, and these gaps are largely independent of the specific reactor technology. As a result, the development of a framework for ERM would enable greater situational awareness regardless of the specific class of reactor technology. A set of research tasks are identified in a preliminary research plan to enable the development, testing, and demonstration of such a framework. Although some aspects of aSMRs, such as specific operational characteristics, will vary and are not now completely defined, the proposed framework is expected to be relevant regardless of such uncertainty. The development of an ERM framework will provide one of the key technical developments necessary to ensure the economic viability of aSMRs.« less

Flooding risks: a comparison of lay people's perceptions and expert's assessments in Switzerland.

PubMed

Siegrist, Michael; Gutscher, Heinz

2006-08-01

Experts on the risk of flooding have developed very detailed maps for different parts of Switzerland that indicate the types of damage possible and the probabilities of adverse events. Four categories of risk severity are defined on the maps, ranging from high risk to no risk. Based on these existing maps, we selected respondents for a mail survey, some from areas high in risk and others from low-risk regions. Respondents answered several questions related to flood risk perception and preparedness. Survey results showed that respondents' risk perceptions were correlated with the experts' risk assessments. Respondents who lived in areas designated "no risk" by the experts had lower perceptions of risk than respondents who lived in areas with higher levels of designated risk. With regard to concrete prevention behavior, no differences between people living in different risk areas were observed. Survey results further suggest that many inhabitants do not know that flooding maps exist for their region. Results suggest that in some regions people overestimate the risks associated with flooding. Consequently, some people are more afraid of flooding than is justified by the facts. Some people show prevention behavior that most likely is superfluous. However, in other regions people underestimate the risks associated with flooding. These people do not show prevention behavior, and they are not well prepared for an adverse event. Furthermore, results suggest that respondents' experiences with flooding are positively related to their perceptions of flood risk. Findings of the present study are in line with the availability heuristic.

A decision tool for selecting trench cap designs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paige, G.B.; Stone, J.J.; Lane, L.J.

1995-12-31

A computer based prototype decision support system (PDSS) is being developed to assist the risk manager in selecting an appropriate trench cap design for waste disposal sites. The selection of the {open_quote}best{close_quote} design among feasible alternatives requires consideration of multiple and often conflicting objectives. The methodology used in the selection process consists of: selecting and parameterizing decision variables using data, simulation models, or expert opinion; selecting feasible trench cap design alternatives; ordering the decision variables and ranking the design alternatives. The decision model is based on multi-objective decision theory and uses a unique approach to order the decision variables andmore » rank the design alternatives. Trench cap designs are evaluated based on federal regulations, hydrologic performance, cover stability and cost. Four trench cap designs, which were monitored for a four year period at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, are used to demonstrate the application of the PDSS and evaluate the results of the decision model. The results of the PDSS, using both data and simulations, illustrate the relative advantages of each of the cap designs and which cap is the {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} alternative for a given set of criteria and a particular importance order of those decision criteria.« less

Design and impact of bundled payment for detox and follow-up care.

PubMed

Quinn, Amity E; Hodgkin, Dominic; Perloff, Jennifer N; Stewart, Maureen T; Brolin, Mary; Lane, Nancy; Horgan, Constance M

2017-11-01

Recent payment reforms promote movement from fee-for-service to alternative payment models that shift financial risk from payers to providers, incentivizing providers to manage patients' utilization. Bundled payment, an episode-based fixed payment that includes the prices of a group of services that would typically treat an episode of care, is expanding in the United States. Bundled payment has been recommended as a way to pay for comprehensive SUD treatment and has the potential to improve treatment engagement after detox, which could reduce detox readmissions, improve health outcomes, and reduce medical care costs. However, if moving to bundled payment creates large losses for some providers, it may not be sustainable. The objective of this study was to design the first bundled payment for detox and follow-up care and to estimate its impact on provider revenues. Massachusetts Medicaid beneficiaries' behavioral health, medical, and pharmacy claims from July 2010-April 2013 were used to build and test a detox bundled payment for continuously enrolled adults (N=5521). A risk adjustment model was developed using general linear modeling to predict beneficiaries' episode costs. The projected payments to each provider from the risk adjustment analysis were compared to the observed baseline costs to determine the potential impact of a detox bundled payment reform on organizational revenues. This was modeled in two ways: first assuming no change in behavior and then assuming a supply-side cost sharing behavioral response of a 10% reduction in detox readmissions and an increase of one individual counseling and one group counseling session. The mean total 90-day detox episode cost was $3743. Nearly 70% of the total mean cost consists of the index detox, psychiatric inpatient care, and short-term residential care. Risk mitigation, including risk adjustment, substantially reduced the variation of the mean episode cost. There are opportunities for organizations to gain revenue under this bundled payment design, but many providers will lose money under a bundled payment designed using historic payment and costs. Designing a bundled payment for detox and follow-up care is feasible, but low case volume and the adequacy of the payment are concerns. Thus, a detox episode-based payment will likely be more challenging for smaller, independent SUD treatment providers. These providers are experiencing many changes as financing shifts away from block grant funding toward Medicaid funding. A detox bundled payment in practice would need to consider different risk mitigation strategies, provider pooling, and costs based on episodes of care meeting quality standards, but could incentivize care coordination, which is important to reducing detox readmissions and engaging patients in care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The development and effectiveness of a health information website designed to improve parents' self-efficacy in managing risk for obesity in preschoolers.

PubMed

Davies, Marilyn A; Terhorst, Lauren; Nakonechny, Amanda J; Skukla, Nimisha; El Saadawi, Gilan

2014-10-01

To evaluate the effects of web-based information on parental self-efficacy in managing obesity risk in preschoolers. The project included a literature review and the development and field testing of an information website that presented information on how to manage nine obesity risk factors for childhood obesity. Parents stated that they had no problems using the website, and 69% reported improved self-efficacy on at least two risk factors. Many parents access the Internet to obtain health information. A website that offers practical information on managing childhood obesity risk factors is a valuable resource for obesity prevention efforts. © 2014, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Implementation of a safe-by-design approach in the development of new open pilot lines for the manufacture of carbon nanotube-based nano-enabled products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López de Ipiña, Jesús M.; Hernan, Angel; Cenigaonaindia, Xabier; Insunza, Mario; Florez, Sonia; Seddon, Richard; Vavouliotis, Antonios; Kostopoulos, Vasilios; Latko, Paulina; Durałek, Paweł; Kchit, Nadir

2017-06-01

The project PLATFORM (H2020, GA 646307) aims to develop three new pilot lines (PPLs) for the manufacture of carbon nanotube-based nano-enabled products (buckypapers, treated prepregs, doped veils), for the European aeronautics and automotive industries (a Technology Readiness Level 6 - TRL6 - is expected at the end of the project). The Machinery Directive 2006/42/EC (MD) - transposed into the respective national legislations - is the European regulatory framework for the design and construction of new machinery, as the future PPLs. PPLs are not required to comply with the provisions of the MD until they are put into service - expected in 2020, after project completion - but then, the MD will be fully applicable. In this regulatory context, the project PLATFORM is aligning the design of the PPLs according to the MD requirements, in order to facilitate the CE marking in 2020 (TRL9) and avoid potential economic costs associated with future re-adaptations or modifications needed to ensure compliance with the MD. This paper discusses the methodological approach followed by the project PLATFORM to integrate all the nanosafety aspects in the design of the PPLs, in order to achieve safe designs in conformity with the relevant Essential Health and Safety Requirements (EHSRs) of the MD. Since machinery must be designed and constructed taking into account the results of the risk assessment (RA), this paper describes the systematic and iterative approach for RA and risk reduction followed to eliminate hazards as far practicable and to adequately reduce risks by the implementation of protective measures. This process has been guided by the harmonized standards EN ISO 12100 and EN ISO 14123, taking the relevant phases of life cycle, expected uses and operation modes of the PPLs into account. A specific tool to guide the safe design of the PPLs and facilitate the RA process has also been produced by the project (PLATFORM - SbD toolkit).

Design definition study of a life/cruise fan technology V/STOL aircraft. Volume 2, addendum 2: Program risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The results are presented of a risk assessment study conducted on two technology aircraft. The aircraft system components were reviewed and assessed for risk based on: (1) complexity relative to state-of-the-art, (2) manufacturing and qualification testing, (3) availability and delays, and (4) cost/schedule impact. These assessments were based on five risk nomenclatures: low, minor, moderate, high, and extreme. Each aircraft system was assigned an overall risk rating depending upon its contribution to the capability of the aircraft to achieve the performance goals. The slightly lower Sabreliner performance margin is due to the restricted flight envelope, the fixed landing gear, and internal fuel capacity. The Sabreliner with retractable gear and allowed to fly at its best speed and altitude would reflect performance margins similar to the New Airframe. These significant margins, inherent with the MCAIR three gas generator/three fan propulsion system, are major modifiers to risk assessment of both aircraft. The estimated risk and the associated key system and performance areas are tabulated.

Promising intervention strategies to reduce parents' use of physical punishment.

PubMed

Gershoff, Elizabeth T; Lee, Shawna J; Durrant, Joan E

2017-09-01

The strong and ever-growing evidence base demonstrating that physical punishment places children at risk for a range of negative outcomes, coupled with global recognition of children's inherent rights to protection and dignity, has led to the emergence of programs specifically designed to prevent physical punishment by parents. This paper describes promising programs and strategies designed for each of three levels of intervention - indicated, selective, and universal - and summarizes the existing evidence base of each. Areas for further program development and evaluation are identified. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life insurance risk assessment using a fuzzy logic expert system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carreno, Luis A.; Steel, Roy A.

1992-01-01

In this paper, we present a knowledge based system that combines fuzzy processing with rule-based processing to form an improved decision aid for evaluating risk for life insurance. This application illustrates the use of FuzzyCLIPS to build a knowledge based decision support system possessing fuzzy components to improve user interactions and KBS performance. The results employing FuzzyCLIPS are compared with the results obtained from the solution of the problem using traditional numerical equations. The design of the fuzzy solution consists of a CLIPS rule-based system for some factors combined with fuzzy logic rules for others. This paper describes the problem, proposes a solution, presents the results, and provides a sample output of the software product.