Antifungal activity and fungal metabolism of steroidal glycosides of Easter lily (Lilium longiflorum Thunb.) by the plant pathogenic fungus, Botrytis cinerea.

PubMed

Munafo, John P; Gianfagna, Thomas J

2011-06-08

Botrytis cinerea Pers. Fr. is a plant pathogenic fungus and the causal organism of blossom blight of Easter lily (Lilium longiflorum Thunb.). Easter lily is a rich source of steroidal glycosides, compounds which may play a role in the plant-pathogen interaction of Easter lily. Five steroidal glycosides, including two steroidal glycoalkaloids and three furostanol saponins, were isolated from L. longiflorum and evaluated for fungal growth inhibition activity against B. cinerea, using an in vitro plate assay. All of the compounds showed fungal growth inhibition activity; however, the natural acetylation of C-6''' of the terminal glucose in the steroidal glycoalkaloid, (22R,25R)-spirosol-5-en-3β-yl O-α-L-rhamnopyranosyl-(1→2)-[6-O-acetyl-β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1→4)]-β-D-glucopyranoside (2), increased antifungal activity by inhibiting the rate of metabolism of the compound by B. cinerea. Acetylation of the glycoalkaloid may be a plant defense response to the evolution of detoxifying mechanisms by the pathogen. The biotransformation of the steroidal glycoalkaloids by B. cinerea led to the isolation and characterization of several fungal metabolites. The fungal metabolites that were generated in the model system were also identified in Easter lily tissues infected with the fungus by LC-MS. In addition, a steroidal glycoalkaloid, (22R,25R)-spirosol-5-en-3β-yl O-α-L-rhamnopyranosyl-(1→2)-β-D-glucopyranoside (6), was identified as both a fungal metabolite of the steroidal glycoalkaloids and as a natural product in L. longiflorum for the first time.

Modification of the health-promoting value of potato tubers field grown under drought stress: emphasis on dietary antioxidant and glycoalkaloid contents in five native andean cultivars (Solanum tuberosum L.).

PubMed

Andre, Christelle M; Schafleitner, Roland; Guignard, Cédric; Oufir, Mouhssin; Aliaga, Carlos Alberto Alvarado; Nomberto, Giannina; Hoffmann, Lucien; Hausman, Jean-François; Evers, Danièle; Larondelle, Yvan

2009-01-28

The effects of drought stress on dietary antioxidant and glycoalkaloid contents in potato tubers were investigated using a selection of five native Andean cultivars. Both freshly harvested and 4 month-stored tubers were analyzed. Responses to drought stress were highly cultivar-specific. The antioxidant contents of the yellow tuber-bearing cultivars (Sipancachi and SS-2613) were weakly affected by the drought treatment, whereas the pigmented cultivars demonstrated highly cultivar-dependent variations. A drastic reduction of anthocyanins and other polyphenols was revealed in the red- (Sullu) and purple-fleshed (Guincho Negra) cultivars, whereas an increase was shown in the purple-skinned and yellow-fleshed cultivar (Huata Colorada). The hydrophilic antioxidant capacity (evaluated by Folin-Ciocalteu and H-oxygen radical absorbance capacity assays) was highly correlated with the polyphenol content and followed, therefore, the same behavior upon drought. Carotenoid contents, including beta-carotene, as well as vitamin E, tended to increase or remain stable following drought exposure, except for the cultivar Sullu, in which the level of these lipophilic antioxidants was decreased. Vitamin C contents were not affected by drought with the exception of Guincho Negra, in which the level was increased. These variations of health-promoting compounds were associated with increased or stable levels of the toxic glycoalkaloids, alpha-solanine and alpha-chaconine. Storage at 10 degrees C for 4 months tended to decrease the concentrations of all dietary antioxidants, except those of vitamin E. This storage also reduced the drought-induced variations observed in freshly harvested tubers. These results were discussed in terms of their implications for human diet and health as well as in plant stress defense mechanisms.

CHARACTERIZATION OF RISKS POSED BY COMBUSTOR EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Risk characterization is the final step of the risk assessment process as practiced in the U.S. EPA. In risk characterization, the major scientific evidence and "bottom-line" results from the other components of the risk assessment process, hazard identification, dose-response as...

Conversion of Exogenous Cholesterol into Glycoalkaloids in Potato Shoots, Using Two Methods for Sterol Solubilisation

PubMed Central

Petersson, Erik V.; Nahar, Nurun; Dahlin, Paul; Broberg, Anders; Tröger, Rikard; Dutta, Paresh C.; Jonsson, Lisbeth; Sitbon, Folke

2013-01-01

Steroidal glycoalkaloids (SGA) are toxic secondary metabolites naturally occurring in the potato, as well as in certain other Solanaceous plant species, such as tomato, eggplant and pepper. To investigate the steroidal origin of SGA biosynthesis, cut potato shoots were fed cholesterol labelled with deuterium (D) in the sterol ring structure (D5- or D6-labelled), or side chain (D7-labelled), and analysed after three or five weeks. The labelled cholesterol and presence of D-labelled SGA were analysed by GC-MS and LC-MS/MS, respectively. When feeding D-labelled cholesterol solubilised in Tween-80, labelled cholesterol in free form became present in both leaves and stems, although the major part was recovered as steryl esters. Minor amounts of D-labelled SGA (α-solanine and α-chaconine) were identified in cholesterol-treated shoots, but not in blank controls, or in shoots fed D6-27-hydroxycholesterol. Solubilising the labelled cholesterol in methyl-β-cyclodextrin instead of Tween-80 increased the levels of labelled SGA up to 100-fold, and about 1 mole% of the labelled cholesterol was recovered as labelled SGA in potato leaves. Both side chain and ring structure D labels were retained in SGA, showing that the entire cholesterol molecule is converted to SGA. However, feeding side chain D7-labelled cholesterol resulted in D5-labelled SGA, indicating that two hydrogen atoms were released during formation of the SGA nitrogen-containing ring system. Feeding with D7-sitosterol did not produce any labelled SGA, indicating that cholesterol is a specific SGA precursor. In conclusion, we have demonstrated a superior performance of methyl-β-cyclodextrin for delivery of cholesterol in plant tissue feeding experiments, and given firm evidence for cholesterol as a specific sterol precursor of SGA in potato. PMID:24349406

The challenge of risk characterization: current practice and future directions.

PubMed Central

Gray, G M; Cohen, J T; Graham, J D

1993-01-01

Risk characterization is perhaps the most important part of risk assessment. As currently practiced, risk characterizations do not convey the degree of uncertainty in a risk estimate to risk managers, Congress, the press, and the public. Here, we use a framework put forth by an ad hoc study group of industry and government scientists and academics to critique the risk characterizations contained in two risks assessments of gasoline vapor. After discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each assessment's risk characterization, we detail an alternative approach that conveys estimates in the form of a probability distribution. The distributional approach can make use of all relevant scientific data and knowledge, including alternative data sets and all plausible mechanistic theories of carcinogenesis. As a result, this approach facilitates better public health decisions than current risk characterization procedures. We discuss methodological issues, as well as strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach. PMID:8020444

High-performance liquid chromatography-diode array detection-electrospray ionization multi-stage mass spectrometric screening of an insect/plant system: the case of Spodoptera littoralis/Lycopersicon esculentum phenolics and alkaloids.

PubMed

Ferreres, Federico; Taveira, Marcos; Gil-Izquierdo, Angel; Oliveira, Luísa; Teixeira, Tânia; Valentão, Patrícia; Simões, Nelson; Andrade, Paula B

2011-07-30

High-performance liquid chromatography-diode array detection-electrospray ionization multi-stage mass spectrometry (HPLC-DAD-ESI-MS(n)) is considered to be a very valuable tool for the characterization of compounds found in trace amounts in natural matrices, as their previous isolation and clean-up steps can be avoided. Micro-scale separation increases the potential of this analytical technique, allowing the determination of compounds in reduced samples. Spodoptera littoralis represents a major challenge to Solanaceae plants, as it is one of the most deleterious pests. The S. littoralis/Lycopersicon esculentum system was studied for the first time concerning glycoalkaloids and phenolics. Using HPLC-DAD-ESI-MS(n) we were able to characterize 15 phenolic compounds in L. esculentum leaves. Nine of them are reported for the first time. Some differences were found between leaves of cerasiforme and 'Bull's heart' varieties. However, in the materials of S. littoralis (larvae, adults, exuviae and excrements) reared in both L. esculentum leaves no phenolics were identified. α-Tomatine was the main glycoalkaloid in the host plant. The glycoalkaloid composition of the different S. littoralis materials was distinct, with α-tomatine and dehydrotomatine being the main detected compounds in larvae and excrements. These results add knowledge to the ecological interaction in this insect/plant duo, for which it is hard to obtain considerable sample amounts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Phases of ERA - Risk Characterization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Eco-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

PubMed Central

Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

Comparative metabolite profiling of Solanum tuberosum against six wild Solanum species with Colorado potato beetle resistance.

PubMed

Tai, Helen H; Worrall, Kraig; Pelletier, Yvan; De Koeyer, David; Calhoun, Larry A

2014-09-10

The Colorado potato beetle Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say) (CPB) is a coleopteran herbivore that feeds on the foliage on Solanum species, in particular, potato. Six resistant wild Solanum species were identified, and two of these species had low levels of glycoalkaloids. Comparative analysis of the untargeted metabolite profiles of the foliage using UPLC-qTOF-MS was done to find metabolites shared between the wild species but not with Solanum tuberosum (L.) to identify resistance-related metabolites. It was found that only S. tuberosum produced the triose glycoalkaloids solanine and chaconine. Instead, the six wild species produced glycoalkaloids that shared in common tetrose sugar side chains. Additionally, there were non-glycoalkaloid metabolites associated with resistance including hydroxycoumarin and a phenylpropanoid, which were produced in all wild species but not in S. tuberosum.

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

Risk Informed Margins Management as part of Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith

2014-06-01

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about Light Water Reactor (LWR) design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plantmore » safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as risk informed margins management (RIMM) strategies.« less

Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

King, Zoe M.; Henshel, Diane S.; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G.; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

2018-01-01

Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing

Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment.

PubMed

King, Zoe M; Henshel, Diane S; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

2018-01-01

Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual's intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing malicious

Implementing the Deputy Administrator's Risk Characterization Memorandum, May 26, 1992

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The purpose of this memorandum is to implement in the Superfund program the reccomendations of the Deputy Administrator in his memorandum of February 26, 1992, 'Guidance on risk characterization for risk managers and risk assessors.'

INDOOR AIR ASSESSMENT - A REVIEW OF INDOOR AIR QUALITY RISK CHARACTERIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment methodologies provide a mechanism for incorporating scientific evidence and Judgments Into the risk management decision process. isk characterization framework has been developed to provide a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk characterizati...

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of

Characterization of health-related compounds in eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) lines derived from introgression of allied species.

PubMed

Mennella, Giuseppe; Rotino, Giuseppe L; Fibiani, Marta; D'Alessandro, Antonietta; Francese, Gianluca; Toppino, Laura; Cavallanti, Federica; Acciarri, Nazzareno; Lo Scalzo, Roberto

2010-07-14

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the levels of either the nutraceutical and health-promoting compounds or the antioxidant properties of innovative eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) genotypes tolerant and/or resistant to fungi, derived from conventional and non-conventional breeding methodologies (i.e., sexual interspecific hybridization, interspecific protoplast electrofusion, androgenesis, and backcross cycles) in comparison with their allied and cultivated parents. Chemical measures of soluble refractometric residue (SRR), glycoalkaloids (solamargine and solasonine), chlorogenic acid (CA), delphinidin 3-rutinoside (D3R), total phenols (TP), polyphenoloxidase (PPO) activity, antiradical activity on superoxide anion and hydroxyl radical were carried out in raw fruit and peel of 57 eggplant advanced introgression lines (ILs), of three eggplant recurrent genotypes and of three allied species during 2005 and 2006. The majority of the ILs, obtained after several backcross cycles, showed positive characteristics with respect to the allied parents such as good levels of SRR, CA, D3R, TP, PPO activity, the scavenging activity against superoxide anion and hydroxyl radical and, in particular, significantly (p glycoalkaloids, solasonine and solamargine. These results showed the possibility to obtain new eggplant genotypes bearing useful traits derived from the allied parents (i.e., resistance/tolerance to plant pathogen fungi) together with nutraceutical and antioxidant properties typical of the cultivated species.

The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

PubMed

Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

2017-07-01

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple

Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

2013-12-01

In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose

Using the Lorenz Curve to Characterize Risk Predictiveness and Etiologic Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Mauguen, Audrey; Begg, Colin B.

2017-01-01

The Lorenz curve is a graphical tool that is used widely in econometrics. It represents the spread of a probability distribution, and its traditional use has been to characterize population distributions of wealth or income, or more specifically, inequalities in wealth or income. However, its utility in public health research has not been broadly established. The purpose of this article is to explain its special usefulness for characterizing the population distribution of disease risks, and in particular for identifying the precise disease burden that can be predicted to occur in segments of the population that are known to have especially high (or low) risks, a feature that is important for evaluating the yield of screening or other disease prevention initiatives. We demonstrate that, although the Lorenz curve represents the distribution of predicted risks in a population at risk for the disease, in fact it can be estimated from a case–control study conducted in the population without the need for information on absolute risks. We explore two different estimation strategies and compare their statistical properties using simulations. The Lorenz curve is a statistical tool that deserves wider use in public health research. PMID:27096256

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.

PubMed

Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will

2015-03-01

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

The concept of comparative information yield curves and its application to risk-based site characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Rubin, Yoram; Maxwell, Reed M.

2009-06-01

Defining rational and effective hydrogeological data acquisition strategies is of crucial importance as such efforts are always resource limited. Usually, strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on uncertainty. This paper presents an approach for determining site characterization needs on the basis of human health risk. The main challenge is in striking a balance between reduction in uncertainty in hydrogeological, behavioral, and physiological parameters. Striking this balance can provide clear guidance on setting priorities for data acquisition and for better estimating adverse health effects in humans. This paper addresses this challenge through theoretical developments and numerical simulation. A wide range of factors that affect site characterization needs are investigated, including the dimensions of the contaminant plume and additional length scales that characterize the transport problem, as well as the model of human health risk. The concept of comparative information yield curves is used for investigating the relative impact of hydrogeological and physiological parameters in risk. Results show that characterization needs are dependent on the ratios between flow and transport scales within a risk-driven approach. Additionally, the results indicate that human health risk becomes less sensitive to hydrogeological measurements for large plumes. This indicates that under near-ergodic conditions, uncertainty reduction in human health risk may benefit from better understanding of the physiological component as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization.

Characterization of drinking water treatment for virus risk assessment.

PubMed

Teunis, P F M; Rutjes, S A; Westrell, T; de Roda Husman, A M

2009-02-01

Removal or inactivation of viruses in drinking water treatment processes can be quantified by measuring the concentrations of viruses or virus indicators in water before and after treatment. Virus reduction is then calculated from the ratio of these concentrations. Most often only the average reduction is reported. That is not sufficient when treatment efficiency must be characterized in quantitative risk assessment. We present three simple models allowing statistical analysis of series of counts before and after treatment: distribution of the ratio of concentrations, and distribution of the probability of passage for unpaired and paired water samples. Performance of these models is demonstrated for several processes (long and short term storage, coagulation/filtration, coagulation/sedimentation, slow sand filtration, membrane filtration, and ozone disinfection) using microbial indicator data from full-scale treatment processes. All three models allow estimation of the variation in (log) reduction as well as its uncertainty; the results can be easily used in risk assessment. Although they have different characteristics and are present in vastly different concentrations, different viruses and/or bacteriophages appear to show similar reductions in a particular treatment process, allowing generalization of the reduction for each process type across virus groups. The processes characterized in this paper may be used as reference for waterborne virus risk assessment, to check against location specific data, and in case no such data are available, to use as defaults.

A Reliable and Reproducible Model for Assessing the Effect of Different Concentrations of α-Solanine on Rat Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells.

PubMed

Ordóñez-Vásquez, Adriana; Jaramillo-Gómez, Lorenza; Duran-Correa, Camilo; Escamilla-García, Erandi; De la Garza-Ramos, Myriam Angélica; Suárez-Obando, Fernando

2017-01-01

Αlpha-solanine ( α -solanine) is a glycoalkaloid present in potato (Solanum tuberosum) . It has been of particular interest because of its toxicity and potential teratogenic effects that include abnormalities of the central nervous system, such as exencephaly, encephalocele, and anophthalmia. Various types of cell culture have been used as experimental models to determine the effect of α -solanine on cell physiology. The morphological changes in the mesenchymal stem cell upon exposure to α -solanine have not been established. This study aimed to describe a reliable and reproducible model for assessing the structural changes induced by exposure of mouse bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) to different concentrations of α -solanine for 24 h. The results demonstrate that nonlethal concentrations of α -solanine (2-6  μ M) changed the morphology of the cells, including an increase in the number of nucleoli, suggesting elevated protein synthesis, and the formation of spicules. In addition, treatment with α -solanine reduced the number of adherent cells and the formation of colonies in culture. Immunophenotypic characterization and staining of MSCs are proposed as a reproducible method that allows description of cells exposed to the glycoalkaloid, α -solanine.

A Reliable and Reproducible Model for Assessing the Effect of Different Concentrations of α-Solanine on Rat Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells

PubMed Central

Ordóñez-Vásquez, Adriana; Jaramillo-Gómez, Lorenza; Duran-Correa, Camilo

2017-01-01

Αlpha-solanine (α-solanine) is a glycoalkaloid present in potato (Solanum tuberosum). It has been of particular interest because of its toxicity and potential teratogenic effects that include abnormalities of the central nervous system, such as exencephaly, encephalocele, and anophthalmia. Various types of cell culture have been used as experimental models to determine the effect of α-solanine on cell physiology. The morphological changes in the mesenchymal stem cell upon exposure to α-solanine have not been established. This study aimed to describe a reliable and reproducible model for assessing the structural changes induced by exposure of mouse bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) to different concentrations of α-solanine for 24 h. The results demonstrate that nonlethal concentrations of α-solanine (2–6 μM) changed the morphology of the cells, including an increase in the number of nucleoli, suggesting elevated protein synthesis, and the formation of spicules. In addition, treatment with α-solanine reduced the number of adherent cells and the formation of colonies in culture. Immunophenotypic characterization and staining of MSCs are proposed as a reproducible method that allows description of cells exposed to the glycoalkaloid, α-solanine. PMID:29201465

IMPROVED RISK CHARACTERIZATION METHODS FOR DEVELOPING AQUATIC LIFE CRITERIA FOR NON-BIOACCUMULATIVE TOXICANTS

EPA Science Inventory

This project will use existing and developing information to evaluate and demonstrate procedures for more fully characterizing risks of non-bioaccumulative toxicants to aquatic organisms, and for incorporating these risks into aquatic life criteria. These efforts will address a v...

FASTER SCIENCE FOR BETTER DECISIONS: CHARACTERIZING ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANT RISK FROM HIGH THROUGHPUT DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Tens of thousands of chemicals and other man-made contaminants exist in our environment, but only a fraction of these have been characterized for their potential risk to humans and there is widespread interest in closing this data gap in order to better manage contaminant risk. C...

A Risk Management Framework to Characterize Black Swan Risks: A Case Study of Lightning Effects on Insensitive High Explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Gary A.

Effective and efficient risk management processes include the use of high fidelity modeling and simulation during the concept exploration phase as part of the technology and risk assessment activities, with testing and evaluation tasks occurring in later design development phases. However, some safety requirements and design architectures may be dominated by the low probability/high consequence "Black Swan" vulnerabilities that require very early testing to characterize and efficiently mitigate. Failure to address these unique risks has led to catastrophic systems failures including the space shuttle Challenger, Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima nuclear reactor, and Katrina dike failures. Discovering and addressing these risks later in the design and development process can be very costly or even lead to project cancellation. This paper examines the need for risk management process adoption of early hazard phenomenology testing to inform the technical risk assessment, requirements definition and conceptual design. A case study of the lightning design vulnerability of the insensitive high explosives being used in construction, mining, demolition, and defense industries will be presented to examine the impact of this vulnerability testing during the concept exploration phase of the design effort. While these insensitive high explosives are far less sensitive to accidental initiation by fire, impact, friction or even electrical stimuli, their full range of sensitivities have not been characterized and ensuring safe engineering design and operations during events such as lightning storms requires vulnerability testing during the risk assessment phase.

LC-MS analysis of glycoalkaloid diversity among seven potato genotypes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Secondary metabolites in potato tubers include both phytonutrients and plant defense compounds. The extent of variation in these small molecules among different potato genotypes is not well characterized. LC-MS analysis of tuber extracts from seven potato genotypes showed that one large source of sm...

Characterizing Decision-Analysis Performances of Risk Prediction Models Using ADAPT Curves.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung; Wu, Yun-Chun

2016-01-01

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities.Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the "average deviation about the probability threshold" (ADAPT).An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model.Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models.

Characterization of candidate genes in inflammatory bowel disease–associated risk loci

PubMed Central

Peloquin, Joanna M.; Sartor, R. Balfour; Newberry, Rodney D.; McGovern, Dermot P.; Yajnik, Vijay; Lira, Sergio A.

2016-01-01

GWAS have linked SNPs to risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but a systematic characterization of disease-associated genes has been lacking. Prior studies utilized microarrays that did not capture many genes encoded within risk loci or defined expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) using peripheral blood, which is not the target tissue in IBD. To address these gaps, we sought to characterize the expression of IBD-associated risk genes in disease-relevant tissues and in the setting of active IBD. Terminal ileal (TI) and colonic mucosal tissues were obtained from patients with Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis and from healthy controls. We developed a NanoString code set to profile 678 genes within IBD risk loci. A subset of patients and controls were genotyped for IBD-associated risk SNPs. Analyses included differential expression and variance analysis, weighted gene coexpression network analysis, and eQTL analysis. We identified 116 genes that discriminate between healthy TI and colon samples and uncovered patterns in variance of gene expression that highlight heterogeneity of disease. We identified 107 coexpressed gene pairs for which transcriptional regulation is either conserved or reversed in an inflammation-independent or -dependent manner. We demonstrate that on average approximately 60% of disease-associated genes are differentially expressed in inflamed tissue. Last, we identified eQTLs with either genotype-only effects on expression or an interaction effect between genotype and inflammation. Our data reinforce tissue specificity of expression in disease-associated candidate genes, highlight genes and gene pairs that are regulated in disease-relevant tissue and inflammation, and provide a foundation to advance the understanding of IBD pathogenesis. PMID:27668286

Landscape characterization of peridomestic risk for Lyme disease using satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dister, S. W.; Fish, D.; Bros, S. M.; Frank, D. H.; Wood, B. L.

1997-01-01

Remotely sensed characterizations of landscape composition were evaluated for Lyme disease exposure risk on 337 residential properties in two communities of suburban Westchester County, New York. Properties were categorized as no, low, or high risk based on seasonally adjusted densities of Ixodes scapularis nymphs, determined by drag sampling during June and July 1990. Spectral indices based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data provided relative measures of vegetation structure and moisture (wetness), as well as vegetation abundance (greenness). A geographic information system (GIS) was used to spatially quantify and relate the remotely sensed landscape variables to risk category. A comparison of the two communities showed that Chappaqua, which had more high-risk properties (P < 0.001), was significantly greener and wetter than Armonk (P < 0.001). Furthermore, within Chappaqua, high-risk properties were significantly greener and wetter than lower-risk properties in this community (P < 0.01). The high-risk properties appeared to contain a greater proportion of broadleaf trees, while lower-risk properties were interpreted as having a greater proportion of nonvegetative cover and/or open lawn. The ability to distinguish these fine scale differences among communities and individual properties illustrates the efficiency of a remote sensing/GIS-based approach for identifying peridomestic risk of Lyme disease over large geographic areas.

Agricultural areas in potentially contaminated sites: characterization, risk, management.

PubMed

Vanni, Fabiana; Scaini, Federica; Beccaloni, Eleonora

2016-01-01

In Italy, the current legislation for contaminants in soils provides two land uses: residential/public or private gardens and commercial/industrial; there are not specific reference values for agricultural soils, even if a special decree has been developed and is currently going through the legislative approval process. The topic of agricultural areas is relevant, also in consideration of their presence near potentially contaminated sites. Aim and results. In this paper, contamination sources and transport modes of contaminants from sources to the target in agricultural areas are examined and a suitable "conceptual model" to define appropriate characterization methods and risk assessment procedures is proposed. These procedures have already been used by the National Institute of Health in various Italian areas characterized by different agricultural settings. Finally, specific remediation techniques are suggested to preserve soil resources and, if possible, its particular land use.

Characterizing health risks associated with recreational swimming at Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping

2018-01-01

Taiwan is surrounded by oceans, and therefore numerous pleasure beaches attract millions of tourists annually to participate in recreational swimming activities. However, impaired water quality because of fecal pollution poses a potential threat to the tourists' health. This study probabilistically characterized the health risks associated with recreational swimming engendered by waterborne enterococci at 13 Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. First, data on enterococci concentrations at coastal beaches monitored by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration were reproduced using nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The ingestion volumes of recreational swimming based on uniform and gamma distributions were subsequently determined using MCS. Finally, after the distribution combination of the two parameters, the beta-Poisson dose-response function was employed to quantitatively estimate health risks to recreational swimmers. Moreover, various levels of risk to recreational swimmers were classified and spatially mapped to explore feasible recreational and environmental management strategies at the beaches. The study results revealed that although the health risks associated with recreational swimming did not exceed an acceptable benchmark of 0.019 illnesses daily at all beaches, they approached to this benchmark at certain beaches. Beaches with relatively high risks are located in Northwestern Taiwan owing to the current movements.

Baseline Ecological Risk Assessment for the Upland at the LCP Chemical Site, Brunswick, Georgia - Site Investigation/Analysis and Risk Characterization (Final)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Site Investigation/Analysis and Risk Characterization (Final) Prepared for Honeywell International Inc. Prepared by CDR Environmental Specialists, Inc. August 2010 Region ID: 04 DocID: 10746263, DocDate: 08-01-2010

Health risk characterization of maximum legal exposures for persistent organic pollutant (POP) pesticides in residential soil: An analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zijian

2018-01-01

Regulations for pesticides in soil are important for controlling human health risk; humans can be exposed to pesticides by ingesting soil, inhaling soil dust, and through dermal contact. Previous studies focused on analyses of numerical standard values for pesticides and evaluated the same pesticide using different standards among different jurisdictions. To understand the health consequences associated with pesticide soil standard values, lifetime theoretical maximum contribution and risk characterization factors were used in this study to quantify the severity of damage using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) under the maximum "legal" exposure to persistent organic pollutant (POP) pesticides that are commonly regulated by the Stockholm Convention. Results show that computed soil characterization factors for some pesticides present lognormal distributions, and some of them have DALY values higher than 1000.0 per million population (e.g., the DALY for dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane [DDT] is 14,065 in the Netherlands, which exceeds the tolerable risk of uncertainty upper bound of 1380.0 DALYs). Health risk characterization factors computed from national jurisdictions illustrate that values can vary over eight orders of magnitude. Further, the computed characterization factors can vary over four orders of magnitude within the same national jurisdiction. These data indicate that there is little agreement regarding pesticide soil regulatory guidance values (RGVs) among worldwide national jurisdictions or even RGV standard values within the same jurisdiction. Among these POP pesticides, lindane has the lowest median (0.16 DALYs) and geometric mean (0.28 DALYs) risk characterization factors, indicating that worldwide national jurisdictions provide relatively conservative soil RGVs for lindane. In addition, we found that some European nations and members of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics share the same pesticide RGVs and data clusters for the

A biological approach to characterizing exposure to metalworking fluids and risk of prostate cancer (United States).

PubMed

Agalliu, Ilir; Eisen, Ellen A; Kriebel, David; Quinn, Margaret M; Wegman, David H

2005-05-01

Prostate cancer is hormone-related and chemicals that interfere with hormones may contribute to carcinogenesis. In a cohort of autoworkers we characterized exposure to metalworking fluids (MWF) into age windows with homogenous biological risk for prostate cancer, and examined exposure-response relationships using semi-parametric modeling. Incident cases (n=872) were identified via Michigan cancer registry from 1985 through 2000. Controls were selected using incidence-density sampling, 5:1 ratio. Using a hormonal-based model, exposure was accumulated in three windows: (1) late puberty, (2) adulthood, and (3) middle age. We used penalized splines to model risk as a smooth function of exposure, and controlled for race and calendar year of diagnosis in a Cox model. Risk of prostate cancer linearly increased with exposure to straight MWF in the first window, with a relative risk of 2.4 per 10 mg/m(3)-years. Autoworkers exposed to MWF at a young age also had an increased risk associated with MWF exposure incurred later in life. For soluble MWF there was a slightly increased risk in the third window. Exposure characterization based on a hormonal model identified heightened risk with early age of exposure to straight MWF. Results also support a long latency period for exposure related prostate cancer.

Recovery of steroidal alkaloids from potato peels using pressurized liquid extraction.

PubMed

Hossain, Mohammad B; Rawson, Ashish; Aguiló-Aguayo, Ingrid; Brunton, Nigel P; Rai, Dilip K

2015-05-13

A higher yield of glycoalkaloids was recovered from potato peels using pressurized liquid extraction (1.92 mg/g dried potato peels) compared to conventional solid-liquid extraction (0.981 mg/g dried potato peels). Response surface methodology deduced the optimal temperature and extracting solvent (methanol) for the pressurized liquid extraction (PLE) of glycoalkaloids as 80 °C in 89% methanol. Using these two optimum PLE conditions, levels of individual steroidal alkaloids obtained were of 597, 873, 374 and 75 µg/g dried potato peel for α-solanine, α-chaconine, solanidine and demissidine respectively. Corresponding values for solid liquid extraction were 59%, 46%, 40% and 52% lower for α-solanine, α-chaconine, solanidine and demissidine respectively.

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Rossi, M.; Riccio, G.; Romero, E.; Francisco, D.

2016-01-01

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and

Analysis of Metabolic Changes in Plant Pathosystems by Imprint Imaging DESI-MS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tata, Alessandra; Perez, Consuelo J.; Hamid, Tanam S.; Bayfield, Mark A.; Ifa, Demian R.

2015-04-01

The response of plants to microbial pathogens is based on the production of secondary metabolites. The complexity of plant-pathogen interactions makes their understanding a challenging task for metabolomic studies requiring powerful analytical approaches. In this paper, the ability of ambient mass spectrometry to provide a snapshot of plant metabolic response to pathogen invasion was tested. The fluctuations of glycoalkaloids present in sprouted potatoes infected by the phytopathogen Pythium ultimum were monitored by imprint imaging desorption electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (DESI-MS). After 8 d from the inoculation, a decrease of the relative abundance of potato glycoalkaloids α-solanine ( m/z 706) and α-chaconine ( m/z 722) was observed, whereas the relative intensity of solanidine ( m/z 398), solasodenone ( m/z 412), solanaviol ( m/z 430), solasodiene ( m/z 396), solaspiralidine ( m/z 428), γ-solanine/γ-chaconine ( m/z 560) , β-solanine ( m/z 706), and β-chaconine ( m/z 722) increased. The progression of the disease, expressed by the development of brown necrotic lesions on the potato, led to the further decrease of all the glycoalkaloid metabolites. Therefore, the applicability of imprint imaging DESI-MS in studying the plant metabolic changes in a simple pathosystem was demonstrated with minimal sample preparation.

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-04-01

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

2000-05-01

Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.

Development, Application, and Implementation of RAMCAP to Characterize Nuclear Power Plant Risk From Terrorism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaertner, John P.; Teagarden, Grant A.

2006-07-01

In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI and ERIN Engineering were selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate the RAMCAP method for nuclear power plant (NPP) risk assessment. The objective is to characterize plant-specific NPP risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. This paper is an update of this project presented at the American Nuclear Society (ANS) International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA05) in September, 2005. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. For eachmore » site, worst case scenarios are developed for each of sixteen benchmark threats. Nuclear RAMCAP hypothesizes that the intent of the perpetrator is to cause offsite radiological consequences. Specific targets are the reactor core, the spent fuel pool, and nuclear spent fuel in a dry storage facility (ISFSI). Results for each scenario are presented as conditional risk for financial loss, early fatalities and early injuries. Expected consequences for each scenario are quantified, while vulnerability is estimated on a relative likelihood scale. Insights for other societal risks are provided. Although threat frequencies are not provided, target attractiveness and threat deterrence are estimated. To assure efficiency, completeness, and consistency; results are documented using standard RAMCAP Evaluator software. Trial applications were successfully performed at four plant sites. Implementation at all other U.S. commercial sites is underway, supported by the Nuclear Sector Coordinating Council (NSCC). Insights from RAMCAP results at 23 U.S. plants completed to date have been compiled and presented to the NSCC. Results are site-specific. Physical security barriers, an armed security force, preparedness for design-basis threats, rugged design against natural hazards, multiple barriers between fuel

Secondary metabolites: applications on cultural heritage.

PubMed

Sasso, S; Scrano, L; Bonomo, M G; Salzano, G; Bufo, S A

2013-01-01

Biological sciences and related bio-technology play a very important role in research projects concerning protection and preservation of cultural heritage for future generations. In this work secondary metabolites of Burkholderia gladioli pv. agaricicola (Bga) ICMP 11096 strain and crude extract of glycoalkaloids from Solanaceae plants, were tested against a panel of microorganisms isolated from calcarenite stones of two historical bridges located in Potenza and in Campomaggiore (Southern Italy). The isolated bacteria belong to Bacillus cereus and Arthrobacter agilis species, while fungi belong to Aspergillus, Penicillium, Coprinellus, Fusarium, Rhizoctonio and Stemphylium genera. Bga broth (unfiltered) and glycoalkaloids extracts were able to inhibit the growth of all bacterial isolates. Bga culture was active against fungal colonies, while Solanaceae extract exerted bio-activity against Fusarium and Rhizoctonia genera.

Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

PubMed

Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

2005-10-01

The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

Characterization, partitioning, and potential ecological risk quantification of trace elements in coal fly ash.

PubMed

Usmani, Zeba; Kumar, Vipin

2017-06-01

Coal-based thermal power plants are the major source of power generation in India. Combustion of coal gives rise to by-products such as fly ash (FA) in huge quantities. The current study focuses on physico-chemical and mineralogical characterization and risk evaluation of FA, generated from five thermal power plants (TPPs) of India. The coal, and corresponding FA and bottom ash (BA) were further analyzed for trace elements in order to observe the enrichment and partitioning behavior of elements. The environmental risk assessment of trace elements in FA was performed in accordance with geoaccumulation index (I geo ) and potential ecological risk index (PERI). The results demonstrated that FA was enriched predominantly in SiO 2 , Al 2 O 3 , and Fe 2 O 3 along with small concentrations of CaO and MgO. The mineral phases identified in FA were quartz, mullite, hematite, and magnetite. Elemental characterization indicated that the metals were more enriched in FA as compared to coal and BA. The concentrations of trace elements, Cr, Pb, Hg, and As in FA (TPPs), varied from 12.59-24.28, 22.68-43.19, <0.0001-2.29, and 0.08-3.39 mg/kg, respectively. Maximum enrichment ratio (ER) was observed for Pb (5.21) in TPP3 FA. Hg in TPP1 showed the highest partition ratio (PR) value. I geo values for metals were mostly below zero. The PERI values indicated moderate risk from TPP4 FA and low risk from TPP1, TPP2, TPP3, and TPP5 FA to the environment, according to the threshold values provided.

Improved Safety Margin Characterization of Risk from Loss of Offsite Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Paul

Original intent: The original intent of this task was “support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characteristic (RISMC) methodology in order” “to address … efficiency of computation so that more accurate and cost-effective techniques can be used to address safety margin characterizations” (S. M. Hess et al., “Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization,” Procs. ICONE17, Brussels, July 2009, CD format). It was intended that “in Task 1 itself this improvement will be directed toward upon the very important issue of Loss of Offsite Power (LOOP) events,” more specifically toward the challenge of efficient computation of the multidimensional nonrecovery integral that has been discussedmore » by many previous contributors to the theory of nuclear safety. It was further envisioned that “three different computational approaches will be explored,” corresponding to the three subtasks listed below; deliverables were tied to the individual subtasks.« less

CHARACTERIZATION OF DATA VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY: HEALTH EFFECTS ASSESSMENTS IN THE INTEGRATED RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM (IRIS)

EPA Science Inventory

In response to a Congressional directive contained in HR 106-379 regarding EPA's appropriations for FY2000, EPA has undertaken an evaluation of the characterization of data variability and uncertainty in its Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health effects information dat...

Characterization and risk of exposure to elements from artisanal gold mining operations in the Bolivian Andes.

PubMed

Pavilonis, Brian; Grassman, Jean; Johnson, Glen; Diaz, Yilmael; Caravanos, Jack

2017-04-01

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) offers low-skilled workers an opportunity to elevate themselves out of poverty. However, this industry operates with little to no pollution controls and the cost to the environment and human health can be large. The objectives of this study were to measure levels of arsenic (As), manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), lead (Pb), and mercury (Hg) in the environment and characterize health risks to miners and residents in an area with active ASGM operations. An exposure assessment was conducted at two different mining sites and a nearby village in the Bolivian Anders. The resulting measurements were then used to quantify cancerous and noncancerous health risks to children and adults working at and living near ASGM areas. Soil concentrations of As were well above background levels and showed great variations between the village and mining area. Mercury vapor levels at the two mining sites were approximately 30 times larger than the EPA reference concentration. The risk of developing non-cancerous health effects were primarily due to exposure to As and Hg. The probability of individuals developing cancer was considerably increased with adult miners having a probability of 1.3 out of 100. Cancer potential was driven by exposure to As, with de minimus cancer risk from all other elements. Based on the environmental characterization of elements in soils and Hg vapors, the risk of developing cancerous and non-cancerous health outcomes were above a level of concern based on EPA risk assessment guidance. Personal protective equipment was not worn by workers and Hg amalgam is commonly heated in workers' homes. Better education of the risks of ASGM is needed as well as simple controls to reduce exposure. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mortensen, Holly M., E-mail: mortensen.holly@epa.gov; Euling, Susan Y.

Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be applied to account for the lack of information about susceptibility. Defining genetic susceptibility in response to environmental chemicals across human populations is an area of interest in the NAS' new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessment. Data from high-throughput/high content (HT/HC), including -omics (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics) technologies, have been integral to the identification and characterization ofmore » drug target and disease loci, and have been successfully utilized to inform the mechanism of action for numerous environmental chemicals. Large-scale population genotyping studies may help to characterize levels of variability across human populations at identified target loci implicated in response to environmental chemicals. By combining mechanistic data for a given environmental chemical with next generation sequencing data that provides human population variation information, one can begin to characterize differential susceptibility due to genetic variability to environmental chemicals within and across genetically heterogeneous human populations. The integration of such data sources will be informative to human health risk assessment.« less

Characterizing risk assessments for the development of occupational exposure limits for engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Schulte, P A; Kuempel, E D; Drew, N M

2018-06-01

The commercialization of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) began in the early 2000's. Since then the number of commercial products and the number of workers potentially exposed to ENMs is growing, as is the need to evaluate and manage the potential health risks. Occupational exposure limits (OELs) have been developed for some of the first generation of ENMs. These OELs have been based on risk assessments that progressed from qualitative to quantitative as nanotoxicology data became available. In this paper, that progression is characterized. It traces OEL development through the qualitative approach of general groups of ENMs based primarily on read-across with other materials to quantitative risk assessments for nanoscale particles including titanium dioxide, carbon nanotubes and nanofibers, silver nanoparticles, and cellulose nanocrystals. These represent prototypic approaches to risk assessment and OEL development for ENMs. Such substance-by-substance efforts are not practical given the insufficient data for many ENMs that are currently being used or potentially entering commerce. Consequently, categorical approaches are emerging to group and rank ENMs by hazard and potential health risk. The strengths and limitations of these approaches are described, and future derivations and research needs are discussed. Critical needs in moving forward with understanding the health effects of the numerous EMNs include more standardized and accessible quantitative data on the toxicity and physicochemical properties of ENMs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

PubMed Central

Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

2015-01-01

The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

Human health risk characterization of petroleum coke calcining facility emissions.

PubMed

Singh, Davinderjit; Johnson, Giffe T; Harbison, Raymond D

2015-12-01

Calcining processes including handling and storage of raw petroleum coke may result in Particulate Matter (PM) and gaseous emissions. Concerns have been raised over the potential association between particulate and aerosol pollution and adverse respiratory health effects including decrements in lung function. This risk characterization evaluated the exposure concentrations of ambient air pollutants including PM10 and gaseous pollutants from a petroleum coke calciner facility. The ambient air pollutant levels were collected through monitors installed at multiple locations in the vicinity of the facility. The measured and modeled particulate levels in ambient air from the calciner facility were compared to standards protective of public health. The results indicated that exposure levels were, on occasions at sites farther from the facility, higher than the public health limit of 150 μg/m(3) 24-h average for PM10. However, the carbon fraction demonstrated that the contribution from the calciner facility was de minimis. Exposure levels of the modeled SO2, CO, NOx and PM10 concentrations were also below public health air quality standards. These results demonstrate that emissions from calcining processes involving petroleum coke, at facilities that are well controlled, are below regulatory standards and are not expected to produce a public health risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the Risks of Adverse Outcomes Following Rubella Infection in Pregnancy.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M; Simons, Emily A; Badizadegan, Kamran; Reef, Susan E; Cooper, Louis Z

2016-07-01

Although most infections with the rubella virus result in relatively minor sequelae, rubella infection in early pregnancy may lead to severe adverse outcomes for the fetus. First recognized in 1941, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) can manifest with a diverse range of symptoms, including congenital cataracts, glaucoma, and cardiac defects, as well as hearing and intellectual disability. The gestational age of the fetus at the time of the maternal rubella infection impacts the probability and severity of outcomes, with infection in early pregnancy increasing the risks of spontaneous termination (miscarriage), fetal death (stillbirth), birth defects, and reduced survival for live-born infants. Rubella vaccination continues to change the epidemiology of rubella and CRS globally, but no models currently exist to evaluate the economic benefits of rubella management. This systematic review provides an overall assessment of the weight of the evidence for the outcomes associated with rubella infections in the first 20 weeks of pregnancy. We identified, evaluated, and graded 31 studies (all from developed countries) that reported on the pregnancy outcomes of at least 30 maternal rubella infections. We used the available evidence to estimate the increased risks of spontaneous termination, fetal death, infant death, and CRS as a function of the timing of rubella infection in pregnancy and decisions about induced termination. These data support the characterization of the disability-adjusted life years for outcomes associated with rubella infection in pregnancy. We find significant impacts associated with maternal rubella infections in early pregnancy, which economic analyses will miss if they only focus on live births of CRS cases. Our estimates of fetal loss from increased induced terminations due to maternal rubella infections provide context that may help to explain the relatively low numbers of observed CRS cases per year despite potentially large burdens of disease. Our

Quantifying Safety Margin Using the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia

2015-04-26

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC), developed by Idaho National Laboratory as part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability Project, utilizes a probabilistic safety margin comparison between a load and capacity distribution, rather than a deterministic comparison between two values, as is usually done in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses. The goal is to determine the failure probability, or in other words, the probability of the system load equaling or exceeding the system capacity. While this method has been used in pilot studies, there has been little work conducted investigating the statistical significance of the resulting failure probability. In particular, it ismore » difficult to determine how many simulations are necessary to properly characterize the failure probability. This work uses classical (frequentist) statistics and confidence intervals to examine the impact in statistical accuracy when the number of simulations is varied. Two methods are proposed to establish confidence intervals related to the failure probability established using a RISMC analysis. The confidence interval provides information about the statistical accuracy of the method utilized to explore the uncertainty space, and offers a quantitative method to gauge the increase in statistical accuracy due to performing additional simulations.« less

Tomatine-Containing Green Tomato Extracts Inhibit Growth of Human Breast, Colon, Liver, and Stomach Cancer Cells

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tomato plants (Lycopersicon esculentum) synthesize the glycoalkaloids dehydrotomatine and a–tomatine, possibly as a defense against bacteria, fungi, viruses, and insects. We investigated six green and three red tomato extracts for their ability to induce cell death in human cancer and normal cells ...

Structure-activity relationships of a-, ß1-, and d-Tomatines and Tomatidine Against Human Breast (MDA-MB-231), Gastric (KATO-III), and Prostate (PC3) Cancer Cells

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Partial acid hydrolysis of the tetrasaccharide (lycotetraose) side chain of the tomato glycoalkaloid a-tomatine resulted in the formation of four products with three (ß1-tomatine), two ('-tomatine), one (d-tomatine), and zero (tomatidine) sugar residues. These compounds were isolated by chromatogra...

Characterizing the genetic influences on risk aversion.

PubMed

Harrati, Amal

2014-01-01

Risk aversion has long been cited as an important factor in retirement decisions, investment behavior, and health. Some of the heterogeneity in individual risk tolerance is well understood, reflecting age gradients, wealth gradients, and similar effects, but much remains unexplained. This study explores genetic contributions to heterogeneity in risk aversion among older Americans. Using over 2 million genetic markers per individual from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on risk preferences using a sample of 10,455 adults. None of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are found to be statistically significant determinants of risk preferences at levels stricter than 5 × 10(-8). These results suggest that risk aversion is a complex trait that is highly polygenic. The analysis leads to upper bounds on the number of genetic effects that could exceed certain thresholds of significance and still remain undetected at the current sample size. The findings suggest that the known heritability in risk aversion is likely to be driven by large numbers of genetic variants, each with a small effect size.

Characterizing the genetic risk for Type 2 diabetes in a Malaysian multi-ethnic cohort.

PubMed

Abdullah, N; Abdul Murad, N A; Attia, J; Oldmeadow, C; Mohd Haniff, E A; Syafruddin, S E; Abd Jalal, N; Ismail, N; Ishak, M; Jamal, R; Scott, R J; Holliday, E G

2015-10-01

To characterize the association with Type 2 diabetes of known Type 2 diabetes risk variants in people in Malaysia of Malay, Chinese and Indian ancestry who participated in the Malaysian Cohort project. We genotyped 1604 people of Malay ancestry (722 cases, 882 controls), 1654 of Chinese ancestry (819 cases, 835 controls) and 1728 of Indian ancestry (851 cases, 877 controls). First, 62 candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with Type 2 diabetes were assessed for association via logistic regression within ancestral groups and then across ancestral groups using a meta-analysis. Second, estimated odds ratios were assessed for excess directional concordance with previously studied populations. Third, a genetic risk score aggregating allele dosage across the candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms was tested for association within and across ancestral groups. After Bonferroni correction, seven individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms were associated with Type 2 diabetes in the combined Malaysian sample. We observed a highly significant excess in concordance of effect directions between Malaysian and previously studied populations. The genetic risk score was strongly associated with Type 2 diabetes in all Malaysian groups, explaining from 1.0 to 1.7% of total Type 2 diabetes risk variance. This study suggests there is substantial overlap of the genetic risk alleles underlying Type 2 diabetes in Malaysian and other populations. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.

Characterizing and reaching high-risk drinkers using audience segmentation.

PubMed

Moss, Howard B; Kirby, Susan D; Donodeo, Fred

2009-08-01

Market or audience segmentation is widely used in social marketing efforts to help planners identify segments of a population to target for tailored program interventions. Market-based segments are typically defined by behaviors, attitudes, knowledge, opinions, or lifestyles. They are more helpful to health communication and marketing planning than epidemiologically defined groups because market-based segments are similar in respect to how they behave or might react to marketing and communication efforts. However, market segmentation has rarely been used in alcohol research. As an illustration of its utility, we employed commercial data that describes the sociodemographic characteristics of high-risk drinkers as an audience segment, including where they tend to live, lifestyles, interests, consumer behaviors, alcohol consumption behaviors, other health-related behaviors, and cultural values. Such information can be extremely valuable in targeting and planning public health campaigns, targeted mailings, prevention interventions, and research efforts. We described the results of a segmentation analysis of those individuals who self-reported to consume 5 or more drinks per drinking episode at least twice in the last 30 days. The study used the proprietary PRIZM (Claritas, Inc., San Diego, CA) audience segmentation database merged with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) database. The top 10 of the 66 PRIZM audience segments for this risky drinking pattern are described. For five of these segments we provided additional in-depth details about consumer behavior and the estimates of the market areas where these risky drinkers resided. The top 10 audience segments (PRIZM clusters) most likely to engage in high-risk drinking are described. The cluster with the highest concentration of binge-drinking behavior is referred to as the "Cyber Millenials." This cluster is characterized as "the nation's tech

Exploring public databases to characterize urban flood risks in Amsterdam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaitan, Santiago; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

2015-04-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to decide upon investment to reduce their impacts. Obvious flooding factors affecting flood risk include sewer systems performance and urban topography. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall and socioeconomic characteristics may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several public databases were analyzed: complaints about flooding made by citizens, rainfall depths (15 min and 100 Ha spatio-temporal resolution), grids describing number of inhabitants, income, and housing price (1Ha and 25Ha resolution); and buildings age. Data analysis was done using Python and GIS programming, and included spatial indexing of data, cluster analysis, and multivariate regression on the complaints. Complaints were used as a proxy to characterize flooding impacts. The cluster analysis, run for all the variables except the complaints, grouped part of the grid-cells of central Amsterdam into a highly differentiated group, covering 10% of the analyzed area, and accounting for 25% of registered complaints. The configuration of the analyzed variables in central Amsterdam coincides with a high complaint count. Remaining complaints were evenly dispersed along other groups. An adjusted R2 of 0.38 in the multivariate regression suggests that explaining power can improve if additional variables are considered. While rainfall intensity explained 4% of the incidence of complaints, population density and building age significantly explained around 20% each. Data mining of public databases proved to be a valuable tool to identify factors explaining variability in occurrence of urban pluvial flooding, though additional variables must be considered to fully explain flood risk variability.

Self-Awareness of Falls Risk Among Elderly Patients: Characterizing Awareness Deficits and Exploring Associated Factors.

PubMed

Mihaljcic, Tijana; Haines, Terry P; Ponsford, Jennie L; Stolwyk, Renerus J

2015-12-01

To characterize self-awareness in older adults undergoing inpatient rehabilitation and explore factors associated with reduced awareness of falls risk. Prospective, cross-sectional design. Older adult inpatient rehabilitation setting. Rehabilitation inpatients (N=91; mean age, 77.97±8.04y) and their treating physiotherapist. None. Three aspects of self-awareness (intellectual, emergent, anticipatory) were measured using the Self-Awareness of Falls Risk Measure. Demographic, medical, and cognitive (Mini-Mental State Examination) information were collected. Current ability was measured using the FIM and timed Up and Go test. Of the patients in the sample, 31% to 63% underestimated falls risk and 3% to 10% overestimated falls risk depending on the aspect of awareness measured. Different aspects of reduced self-awareness were correlated with being a man, higher educational attainment, neurologic history, lower cognitive ability, and lower functional ability. Regression analysis indicated that sex (β=-.33, P=.004), education (β=-.30, P=.006), and neurologic history (β=-.22, P=.038) were independently associated with overall self-awareness. The results suggest that a proportion of older adults undergoing inpatient rehabilitation underestimate personal falls risk. Further research is required to investigate the contributors to and effects of reduced self-awareness of falls risk. Greater understanding of these factors will facilitate the development of strategies to increase awareness of falls risk and increase engagement in falls prevention. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review of the anticarcinogenic properties and other health benefits of tomato compounds lycopene and tomatine in pure form and in fresh and processed tomatoes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tomatoes produce the bioactive compounds the red pigment lycopene and the glycoalkaloid a-tomatine that are reported to have potential health-promoting effects in animals and humans but our understanding of the roles of these compounds in the diet is incomplete. This review surveys and interprets t...

CHARACTERIZATION OF ORGANIC EMISSIONS FROM HAZARDOUS WASTE INCINERATION PROCESSES UNDER THE NEW EPA DRAFT RISK BURN GUIDANCE: MEASUREMENT ISSUES

EPA Science Inventory

The paper discusses measurement issues relating to the characterization of organic emissions from hazardous waste incineration processes under EPA's new risk burn guidance. The recently published draft quidance recommends that hazardous waste combustion facilities complete a mass...

Characterization of biological aerosol exposure risks from automobile air conditioning system.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Li, Mingzhen; Shen, Fangxia; Zou, Zhuanglei; Yao, Maosheng; Wu, Chang-yu

2013-09-17

Although use of automobile air conditioning (AC) was shown to reduce in-vehicle particle levels, the characterization of its microbial aerosol exposure risks is lacking. Here, both AC and engine filter dust samples were collected from 30 automobiles in four different geographical locations in China. Biological contents (bacteria, fungi, and endotoxin) were studied using culturing, high-throughput gene sequence, and Limulus amebocyte lysate (LAL) methods. In-vehicle viable bioaerosol concentrations were directly monitored using an ultraviolet aerodynamic particle sizer (UVAPS) before and after use of AC for 5, 10, and 15 min. Regardless of locations, the vehicle AC filter dusts were found to be laden with high levels of bacteria (up to 26,150 CFU/mg), fungi (up to 1287 CFU/mg), and endotoxin (up to 5527 EU/mg). More than 400 unique bacterial species, including human opportunistic pathogens, were detected in the filter dusts. In addition, allergenic fungal species were also found abundant. Surprisingly, unexpected fluorescent peaks around 2.5 μm were observed during the first 5 min use of AC, which was attributed to the reaerosolization of those filter-borne microbial agents. The information obtained here can assist in minimizing or preventing the respiratory allergy or infection risk from the use of automobile AC system.

Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

PubMed

Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2014-05-01

Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Value of Donor–Specific Anti–HLA Antibody Monitoring and Characterization for Risk Stratification of Kidney Allograft Loss

PubMed Central

Viglietti, Denis; Loupy, Alexandre; Vernerey, Dewi; Bentlejewski, Carol; Gosset, Clément; Aubert, Olivier; Duong van Huyen, Jean-Paul; Jouven, Xavier; Legendre, Christophe; Glotz, Denis; Zeevi, Adriana

2017-01-01

The diagnosis system for allograft loss lacks accurate individual risk stratification on the basis of donor–specific anti–HLA antibody (anti-HLA DSA) characterization. We investigated whether systematic monitoring of DSA with extensive characterization increases performance in predicting kidney allograft loss. This prospective study included 851 kidney recipients transplanted between 2008 and 2010 who were systematically screened for DSA at transplant, 1 and 2 years post-transplant, and the time of post–transplant clinical events. We assessed DSA characteristics and performed systematic allograft biopsies at the time of post–transplant serum evaluation. At transplant, 110 (12.9%) patients had DSAs; post-transplant screening identified 186 (21.9%) DSA-positive patients. Post–transplant DSA monitoring improved the prediction of allograft loss when added to a model that included traditional determinants of allograft loss (increase in c statistic from 0.67; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.62 to 0.73 to 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.77). Addition of DSA IgG3 positivity or C1q binding capacity increased discrimination performance of the traditional model at transplant and post-transplant. Compared with DSA mean fluorescence intensity, DSA IgG3 positivity and C1q binding capacity adequately reclassified patients at lower or higher risk for allograft loss at transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.67; P<0.001 and 0.93; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.36; P<0.001, respectively) and post-transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.62; P<0.001 and 0.95; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.28; P<0.001, respectively). Thus, pre– and post–transplant DSA monitoring and characterization may improve individual risk stratification for kidney allograft loss. PMID:27493255

Characterizing and Reaching High-Risk Drinkers Using Audience Segmentation

PubMed Central

Moss, Howard B.; Kirby, Susan D.; Donodeo, Fred

2010-01-01

Background Market or audience segmentation is widely used in social marketing efforts to help planners identify segments of a population to target for tailored program interventions. Market-based segments are typically defined by behaviors, attitudes, knowledge, opinions, or lifestyles. They are more helpful to health communication and marketing planning than epidemiologically-defined groups because market-based segments are similar in respect to how they behave or might react to marketing and communication efforts. However, market segmentation has rarely been used in alcohol research. As an illustration of its utility, we employed commercial data that describes the sociodemographic characteristics of high-risk drinkers as an audience segment; where they tend to live, lifestyles, interests, consumer behaviors, alcohol consumption behaviors, other health-related behaviors, and cultural values. Such information can be extremely valuable in targeting and planning public health campaigns, targeted mailings, prevention interventions and research efforts. Methods We describe the results of a segmentation analysis of those individuals who self-report consuming five or more drinks per drinking episode at least twice in the last 30-days. The study used the proprietary PRIZM™ audience segmentation database merged with Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) database. The top ten of the 66 PRIZM™ audience segments for this risky drinking pattern are described. For five of these segments we provide additional in-depth details about consumer behavior and the estimates of the market areas where these risky drinkers reside. Results The top ten audience segments (PRIZM clusters) most likely to engage in high-risk drinking are described. The cluster with the highest concentration of binge drinking behavior is referred to as the “Cyber Millenials.” This cluster is characterized as “the nation's tech-savvy singles

The Development of Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Simulations for Inclusion in Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization Frameworks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffrey C. Joe; Diego Mandelli; Ronald L. Boring

2015-07-01

The United States Department of Energy is sponsoring the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, which has the overall objective of supporting the near-term and the extended operation of commercial nuclear power plants. One key research and development (R&D) area in this program is the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization pathway, which combines probabilistic risk simulation with thermohydraulic simulation codes to define and manage safety margins. The R&D efforts to date, however, have not included robust simulations of human operators, and how the reliability of human performance or lack thereof (i.e., human errors) can affect risk-margins and plant performance. This paper describesmore » current and planned research efforts to address the absence of robust human reliability simulations and thereby increase the fidelity of simulated accident scenarios.« less

Air pollution effects on food quality. Final progress report. CAES No. 555-80

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pell, E.J.

1980-01-01

The impact of ozone on the qualitative characteristics of potatoes, alfalfa and soybeans is discussed. The impact on yield, total solids, sugar status and tuber glycoalkaloid (TGA) content was measured. The effects of ozone on the leaves were also noted. Field trials were conducted as well as laboratory experiments. (DC)

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaitan, S.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-06-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

Characterizing risk factors for pediatric lamp oil product exposures.

PubMed

Sheikh, S; Chang, A; Kieszak, S; Law, R; Bennett, H K W; Ernst, E; Bond, G R; Spiller, H A; Schurz-Rogers, H; Chu, A; Bronstein, A C; Schier, J G

2013-11-01

Poisonings from lamp oil ingestion continue to occur worldwide among the pediatric population despite preventive measures such as restricted sale of colored and scented lamp oils. This suggests that optimal prevention practices for unintentional pediatric exposures to lamp oil have yet to be identified and/or properly implemented. To characterize demographic, health data, and potential risk factors associated with reported exposures to lamp oil by callers to poison centers (PCs) in the US and discuss their public health implications. This was a two part study in which the first part included characterizing all exposures to a lamp oil product reported to the National Poison Data System (NPDS) with regard to demographics, exposure, health, and outcome data from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010. Regional penetrance was calculated using NPDS data by grouping states into four regions and dividing the number of exposure calls by pediatric population per region (from the 2000 US census). Temporal analyses were performed on NPDS data by comparing number of exposures by season and around the July 4th holiday. Poisson regression was used to model the count of exposures for these analyses. In the second part of this project, in order to identify risk factors we conducted a telephone-based survey to the parents of children from five PCs in five different states. The 10 most recent lamp oil product exposure calls for each poison center were systematically selected for inclusion. Calls in which a parent or guardian witnessed a pediatric lamp oil product ingestion were eligible for inclusion. Data on demographics, exposure information, behavioral traits, and health were collected. A descriptive analysis was performed and Fisher's exact test was used to evaluate associations between variables. All analyses were conducted using SAS v9.3. Among NPDS data, 2 years was the most common patient age reported and states in the Midwestern region had the highest numbers of exposure calls compared to

RISK CHARACTERIZATION OF MATERNAL AND NEONATAL TETANUS IN VIEW OF TETANUS VACCINATION CAMPAIGNS IN PAKISTAN.

PubMed

Khan, Ejaz A; Khan, Rownak; Iqbal, Muhammad Tariq; Hasan, Quamrul; Farrukh, Saadia; Rana, Muhammad Safdar; Khan, Wasiq Mehmood

2015-01-01

Pakistan is one of the remaining 24 countries which have not yet achieved Maternal and Neonatal Tetanus Elimination (MNTE), The country adopted high-risk approach for 56 out of 119 districts with country-wide Tetanus Toxoid (TT) provision in Routine Immunization (RI) during early 2000-2003. The TT's mass campaigns could only cover 13% of high risk districts for 2009- 2011, and mostly for the Punjab province. To achieve MNT elimination, the country needs risk mapping for cost-effective intervention. We used both the quantitative and qualitative methods to conduct risk characterization. All the three available data sets (Reported EPI coverage data, PDHS 2012-13, and PSLM 2010-11) were assessed. A mix of core and surrogate indicators-for risk categorization was used through ranking and scoring the aggregated data and considering the past tetanus campaigns' coverage. Tetanus Toxoid (TT2+)-coverage of pregnant women and delivery in health facility, both received more weightage in scoring. We based the higher and lower cuts off points for each indicator on data ranges. The districts with higher scores, i.e., 10.5 and above were ranked good followed by medium (5.5-10.4) and low performing (less than 5.5). Consultations with the national and provincial field officers were utilized to understand the local context. In Pakistan, there are 139 districts out of which, 60 are the high risk districts for tetanus. Highest percentage is for Baluchistan (83%) followed by Sindh (52%), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (40%). Most of the Punjab is at medium risk (55%), followed by KP (52%), and Sindh (39%). Pakistan is at medium to high risk of MNT with a great variation at the sub-national level. Campaigns aiming to these districts may bring the country closer to MNT elimination target.

Risk characterization of hospitalizations for mental illness and/or behavioral disorders with concurrent heat-related illness

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Many studies have found significant associations between high ambient temperatures and increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality. Several studies have demonstrated that increases in heat-related hospitalizations are elevated among individuals with diagnosed mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders (MBD). However, there are a limited number of studies regarding risk factors associated with specific mental illnesses that contribute, at least in part, to heat-related illnesses (HRI) in the United States. Objective To identify and characterize individual and environmental risk factors associated with MBD hospitalizations with a concurrent HRI diagnosis. Methods This study uses hospitalization data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2001–2010). Descriptive analyses of primary and secondary diagnoses of MBDs with an HRI were examined. Risk ratios (RR) were calculated from multivariable models to identify risk factors for hospitalizations among patients with mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders and HRI. Results Nondependent alcohol/drug abuse, dementia, and schizophrenia were among the disorders that were associated with increased frequency of HRI hospitalizations among MBD patients. Increased risk of MBD hospitalizations with HRI was observed for Males (RR, 3.06), African Americans (RR, 1.16), Native Americans (RR, 1.70), uninsured (RR, 1.92), and those 40 years and older, compared to MBD hospitalizations alone. Conclusions Previous studies outside the U.S. have found that dementia and schizophrenia are significant risk factors for HRI hospitalizations. Our results suggest that hospitalizations among substance abusers may also be an important risk factor associated with heat morbidity. Improved understanding of these relative risks could help inform future public health strategies. PMID:29036206

Characterizing Stressors and Modifiable Health Risk Factors Among Homeless Smokers: An Exploratory Pilot Study.

PubMed

Kendzor, Darla E; Reitzel, Lorraine R; Businelle, Michael S

2015-10-01

This pilot study was conducted to explore the associations between stressors related to homelessness and modifiable health risk factors (poor diet, insufficient physical activity, and overweight/obesity) and to provide direction for future research. Participants (N = 57) were homeless adults enrolled in a smoking cessation program. Analyses were conducted to characterize the sample as well as the relations between relevant stressors (discrimination, chronic stress, and fear and mistrust) and health risk factors. Inadequate daily consumption of fruits, vegetables, and fiber was common. High-fat diet and insufficient physical activity were also prevalent, and the majority of participants were overweight/obese. Participants commonly endorsed discrimination, fear of victimization, mistrust of others, and several other stressors. Greater endorsement of stressors was associated with a high-fat diet. Results suggest that lifestyle interventions and policy changes may be warranted in homeless shelters to attenuate the potential effects of stressors on high-fat dietary consumption among smokers. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.

Children's exposure to harmful elements in toys and low-cost jewelry: characterizing risks and developing a comprehensive approach.

PubMed

Guney, Mert; Zagury, Gerald J

2014-04-30

Contamination problem in jewelry and toys and children's exposure possibility have been previously demonstrated. For this study, risk from oral exposure has been characterized for highly contaminated metallic toys and jewelry ((MJ), n=16) considering three scenarios. Total and bioaccessible concentrations of Cd, Cu, Ni, and Pb were high in selected MJ. First scenario (ingestion of parts or pieces) caused unacceptable risk for eight items for Cd, Ni, and/or Pb (hazard index (HI)>1, up to 75, 5.8, and 43, respectively). HI for ingestion of scraped-off material scenario was always <1. Finally, saliva mobilization scenario caused HI>1 in three samples (two for Cd, one for Ni). Risk characterization identified different potentially hazardous items compared to United States, Canadian, and European Union approaches. A comprehensive approach was also developed to deal with complexity and drawbacks caused by various toy/jewelry definitions, test methods, exposure scenarios, and elements considered in different regulatory approaches. It includes bioaccessible limits for eight priority elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Sb). Research is recommended on metals bioaccessibility determination in toys/jewelry, in vitro bioaccessibility test development, estimation of material ingestion rates and frequency, presence of hexavalent Cr and organic Sn, and assessment of prolonged exposure to MJ. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Integration of demographic factors in the characterization of risk areas for sleeping sickness in Côte d'Ivoire].

PubMed

Fournet, F; Kone, A; Meda, A H; Traore, S; Hervouet, J P

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study was to classify the risk for transmission of African human trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) according to population and settlement densities in four different areas of Zoukougbeu, Cote d'Ivoire, where the exact location of cases reported since 1990 is known. Epidemiological risk indexes were calculated from entomological data obtained from three surveys and analyzed with respect to presence of patients and occupancy rate in each area. Results indicated that there was a risk of transmission near the village of Bahigbeu II where the population density is between 30 and 40 inhabitants per km2 and settlement density is 4 per km2. There was also a risk in less inhabited areas such as Ouatigbeu where the population density is less than 30 inhabitants per km2 and dwelling density less than 4 per km2. In fact, cases are regularly reported in Ouatigbeu but never in Bahigbeu II. Based on these findings, we conclude that, while land occupancy can be considered as a risk factor for sleeping sickness, other factors such as human mobility must be taken into account to characterize risk areas and predict outbreaks.

Are additive effects of dietary surfactants on intestinal tight junction integrity an overlooked human health risk? - A mixture study on Caco-2 monolayers.

PubMed

Glynn, Anders; Igra, Annachiara Malin; Sand, Salomon; Ilbäck, Nils Gunnar; Hellenäs, Karl Erik; Rosén, Johan; Aspenström-Fagerlund, Bitte

2017-08-01

Surfactants may cause dysfunction of intestinal tight junctions (TJs), which is a common feature of intestinal autoimmune diseases. Effects of dietary surfactants on TJ integrity, measured as trans-epithelial resistance (TEER), were studied in Caco-2 cell monolayers. Cytotoxicity was assessed as apical LDH leakage. Monolayers were apically exposed for 60 min to the dietary surfactants solanine and chaconine (SC, potato glycoalkaloids, 0-0.25 mM), perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS, industrial contaminant, 0-0.8 mM), and sucrose monolaurate (SML, food emulsifier E 473, 0-2.0 mM) separately and as a mixture. Dose-response modelling of TEER EC 50 showed that SC were 2.7- and 12-fold more potent than PFOS and SML, respectively. The mixture was composed of 1 molar unit SC, 2.7 units PFOS and 12 units SML ("SC TEER equivalent" proportions 1:1:1). Mixture exposure (0-0.05 mM SC equivalents) dose-response modelling suggested additive action on TJ integrity. Increasing SC and SML concentrations caused increased LDH leakage, but PFOS decreased LDH leakage at intermediate exposure concentrations. In the mixture PFOS appeared to protect from extensive SC- and SML-induced LDH leakage. Complex mixtures of surfactants in food may act additively on intestinal TJ integrity, which should be considered in risk assessment of emulsifier authorisation for use in food production. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization, Monitoring, and Risk Assessment at the IEA GHG Weyburn-Midale CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project, Saskatchewan, Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben, R.; Chalaturnyk, R.; Gardner, C.; Hawkes, C.; Johnson, J.; White, D.; Whittaker, S.

2008-12-01

In July 2000, a major research project was initiated to study the geological storage of CO2 as part of a 5000 tonnes/day EOR project planned for the Weyburn Field in Saskatchewan, Canada. Major objectives of the IEA GHG Weyburn CO2 monitoring and storage project included: assessing the integrity of the geosphere encompassing the Weyburn oil pool for effective long-term storage of CO2; monitoring the movement of the injected CO2, and assessing the risk of migration of CO2 from the injection zone (approximately 1500 metres depth) to the surface. Over the period 2000-2004, a diverse group of 80+ researchers worked on: geological, geophysical, and hydrogeological characterizations at both the regional (100 km beyond the field) and detailed scale (10 km around the field); conducted time-lapse geophysical surveys; carried out surface and subsurface geochemical surveys; and undertook numerical reservoir simulations. Results of the characterization were used for a performance assessment that concluded the risk of CO2 movement to the biosphere was very small. By September 2007, more than 14 Mtonnes of CO2 had been injected into the Weyburn reservoir, including approximately 3 Mtonnes recycled from oil production. A "Final Phase" research project was initiated (2007- 2011) to contribute to a "Best Practices" guide for long-term CO2 storage in EOR settings. Research objectives include: improving the geoscience characterization; further detailed analysis and data collection on the role of wellbores; additional geochemical and geophysical monitoring activities; and an emphasis on quantitative risk assessments using multiple analysis techniques. In this talk a review of results from Phase I will be presented followed by plans and initial results for the Final Phase.

RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

EPA Science Inventory

The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

Latent Profile Analysis and Conversion to Psychosis: Characterizing Subgroups to Enhance Risk Prediction.

PubMed

Healey, Kristin M; Penn, David L; Perkins, Diana; Woods, Scott W; Keefe, Richard S E; Addington, Jean

2018-02-15

Groups at clinical high risk (CHR) of developing psychosis are heterogeneous, composed of individuals with different clusters of symptoms. It is likely that there exist subgroups, each associated with different symptom constellations and probabilities of conversion. Present study used latent profile analysis (LPA) to ascertain subgroups in a combined sample of CHR (n = 171) and help-seeking controls (HSCs; n = 100; PREDICT study). Indicators in the LPA model included baseline Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS), Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia (CDSS), and neurocognitive performance as measured by multiple instruments, including category instances (CAT). Subgroups were further characterized using covariates measuring demographic and clinical features. Three classes emerged: class 1 (mild, transition rate 5.6%), lowest SOPS and depression scores, intact neurocognitive performance; class 2 (paranoid-affective, transition rate 14.2%), highest suspiciousness, mild negative symptoms, moderate depression; and class 3 (negative-neurocognitive, transition rate 29.3%), highest negative symptoms, neurocognitive impairment, social cognitive impairment. Classes 2 and 3 evidenced poor social functioning. Results support a subgroup approach to research, assessment, and treatment of help-seeking individuals. Class 3 may be an early risk stage of developing schizophrenia.

Metabolite Profiling of Italian Tomato Landraces with Different Fruit Types

PubMed Central

Baldina, Svetlana; Picarella, Maurizio E.; Troise, Antonio D.; Pucci, Anna; Ruggieri, Valentino; Ferracane, Rosalia; Barone, Amalia; Fogliano, Vincenzo; Mazzucato, Andrea

2016-01-01

Increased interest toward traditional tomato varieties is fueled by the need to rescue desirable organoleptic traits and to improve the quality of fresh and processed tomatoes in the market. In addition, the phenotypic and genetic variation preserved in tomato landraces represents a means to understand the genetic basis of traits related to health and organoleptic aspects and improve them in modern varieties. To establish a framework for this approach, we studied the content of several metabolites in a panel of Italian tomato landraces categorized into three broad fruit type classes (flattened/ribbed, pear/oxheart, round/elongate). Three modern hybrids, corresponding to the three fruit shape typologies, were included as reference. Red ripe fruits were morphologically characterized and biochemically analyzed for their content in glycoalkaloids, phenols, amino acids, and Amadori products. The round/elongate types showed a higher content in glycoalkaloids, whereas flattened types had higher levels of phenolic compounds. Flattened tomatoes were also rich in total amino acids and in particular in glutamic acid. Multivariate analysis of amino acid content clearly separated the three classes of fruit types. Making allowance of the very low number of genotypes, phenotype-marker relationships were analyzed after retrieving single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among the landraces available in the literature. Sixty-six markers were significantly associated with the studied traits. The positions of several of these SNPs showed correspondence with already described genomic regions and QTLs supporting the reliability of the association. Overall the data indicated that significant changes in quality-related metabolites occur depending on the genetic background in traditional tomato germplasm, frequently according to specific fruit shape categories. Such a variability is suitable to harness association mapping for metabolic quality traits using this germplasm as an experimental

Characterization and risk estimate of cancer in patients with primary Sjögren syndrome.

PubMed

Brito-Zerón, Pilar; Kostov, Belchin; Fraile, Guadalupe; Caravia-Durán, Daniel; Maure, Brenda; Rascón, Francisco-Javier; Zamora, Mónica; Casanovas, Arnau; Lopez-Dupla, Miguel; Ripoll, Mar; Pinilla, Blanca; Fonseca, Eva; Akasbi, Miriam; de la Red, Gloria; Duarte-Millán, Miguel-Angel; Fanlo, Patricia; Guisado-Vasco, Pablo; Pérez-Alvarez, Roberto; Chamorro, Antonio J; Morcillo, César; Jiménez-Heredia, Iratxe; Sánchez-Berná, Isabel; López-Guillermo, Armando; Ramos-Casals, Manuel

2017-04-17

The purpose of this study is to characterize the risk of cancer in a large cohort of patients with primary Sjögren syndrome (SjS). We had analyzed the development of cancer in 1300 consecutive patients fulfilling the 2002 SjS classification criteria. The baseline clinical and immunological characteristics and systemic activity (ESSDAI scores) were assessed at diagnosis as predictors of cancer using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusted for age at diagnosis and gender. The sex-and age-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) of cancer were estimated from 2012 Spanish mortality data. After a mean follow-up of 91 months, 127 (9.8%) patients developed 133 cancers. The most frequent type of cancer was B-cell lymphoma (including 27 MALT and 19 non-MALT B-cell lymphomas). Systemic activity at diagnosis of primary SjS correlated with the risk of hematological neoplasia and cryoglobulins with a high risk of either B-cell or non-B-cell lymphoma subtypes. Patients with cytopenias had a high risk of non-MALT B-cell and non-B-cell cancer, while those with low C3 levels had a high risk of MALT lymphomas and those with monoclonal gammopathy and low C4 levels had a high risk of non-MALT lymphomas. The estimated SIR for solid cancer was 1.13 and 11.02 for hematological cancer. SIRs for specific cancers were 36.17 for multiple myeloma and immunoproliferative diseases, 19.41 for Hodgkin lymphoma, 6.04 for other non-Hodgkin lymphomas, 5.17 for thyroid cancer, 4.81 for cancers of the lip and oral cavity, and 2.53 for stomach cancer. One third of cancers developed by patients with primary SjS are B-cell lymphomas. The prognostic factors identified at SjS diagnosis differed according to the subtype of B-cell lymphoma developed. Primary SjS is also associated with the development of some non-hematological cancers (thyroid, oral cavity, and stomach).

Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

Characterization of heavy-metal-contaminated sediment by using unsupervised multivariate techniques and health risk assessment.

PubMed

Wang, Yeuh-Bin; Liu, Chen-Wuing; Wang, Sheng-Wei

2015-03-01

This study characterized the sediment quality of the severely contaminated Erjen River in Taiwan by using multivariate analysis methods-including factor analysis (FA), self-organizing maps (SOMs), and positive matrix factorization (PMF)-and health risk assessment. The SOMs classified the dataset with similar heavy-metal-contaminated sediment into five groups. FA extracted three major factors-traditional electroplating and metal-surface processing factor, nontraditional heavy-metal-industry factor, and natural geological factor-which accounted for 80.8% of the variance. The SOMs and FA revealed the heavy-metal-contaminated-sediment hotspots in the middle and upper reaches of the major tributary in the dry season. The hazardous index value for health risk via ingestion was 0.302. PMF further qualified the source apportionment, indicating that traditional electroplating and metal-surface-processing industries comprised 47% of the health risk posed by heavy-metal-contaminated sediment. Contaminants discharged from traditional electroplating and metal-surface-processing industries in the middle and upper reaches of the major tributary must be eliminated first to improve the sediment quality in Erjen River. The proposed assessment framework for heavy-metal-contaminated sediment can be applied to contaminated-sediment river sites in other regions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing Freshwater Ecosystem Service Risk over Ecological, Socioeconomic, and Cultural Gradients: Problem Space Characterization and Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harmon, T. C.; Villamizar, S. R.; Conde, D.; Rusak, J.; Reid, B.; Astorga, A.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; London, S.; Velez, M.; Hoyos, N.; Escobar, J.

2014-12-01

Freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide are under increasing anthropogenic pressure at local (e.g., irrigation diversions, wastewater discharge) and global scales (e.g., climate change, global trading). The impact depends on an ecosystem's sensitivity, which is determined by its geophysical and ecological settings, and the population and activities in its surrounding watershed. Given the importance of ecosystem services, it is critical that we improve our ability to identify and understand changes in aquatic ecosystems, and translate them to risk of service loss. Furthermore, to inspire changes in human behavior, it is equally critical that we learn to communicate risk, and pose risk mitigation strategies, in a manner acceptable to a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Quantifying the nature and timing of the risk is difficult because (1) we often fail to understand the connection between anthropogenic pressures and the timing and extent of ecosystem changes; and (2) the concept of risk is inherently coupled to human perception, which generally differs with cultural and socio-economic conditions. In this study, we endeavor to assess aquatic ecosystem risks across an international array of six study sites. The challenge is to construct a methodology capable of capturing the marked biogeographical, socioeconomic, and cultural differences among the sites, which include: (1) Muskoka River watershed in humid continental Ontario, Canada; (2) Lower San Joaquin River, an impounded snow-fed river in semi-arid Central California; (3) Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta, a tropical coastal lagoon in Colombia; (4) Senguer River basin in the semi-arid part of Argentina; (5) Laguna de Rocha watershed in humid subtropical Uruguay; and (6) Palomas Lake complex in oceanic Chilean Patagonia. Results will include a characterization of the experimental gradient over the six sites, an overview of the risk assessment methodology, and preliminary findings for several of the sites.

Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenzel, F.

2009-12-01

The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

Characterization and classification of patients with different levels of cardiac death risk by using Poincaré plot analysis.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Javier; Voss, Andreas; Caminal, Pere; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Giraldo, Beatriz F

2017-07-01

Cardiac death risk is still a big problem by an important part of the population, especially in elderly patients. In this study, we propose to characterize and analyze the cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory systems using the Poincaré plot. A total of 46 cardiomyopathy patients and 36 healthy subjets were analyzed. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was used to stratify patients with low risk (LR: LVEF > 35%, 16 patients), and high risk (HR: LVEF ≤ 35%, 30 patients) of heart attack. RR, SBP and T Tot time series were extracted from the ECG, blood pressure and respiratory flow signals, respectively. Parameters that describe the scatterplott of Poincaré method, related to short- and long-term variabilities, acceleration and deceleration of the dynamic system, and the complex correlation index were extracted. The linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and the support vector machines (SVM) classification methods were used to analyze the results of the extracted parameters. The results showed that cardiac parameters were the best to discriminate between HR and LR groups, especially the complex correlation index (p = 0.009). Analising the interaction, the best result was obtained with the relation between the difference of the standard deviation of the cardiac and respiratory system (p = 0.003). When comparing HR vs LR groups, the best classification was obtained applying SVM method, using an ANOVA kernel, with an accuracy of 98.12%. An accuracy of 97.01% was obtained by comparing patients versus healthy, with a SVM classifier and Laplacian kernel. The morphology of Poincaré plot introduces parameters that allow the characterization of the cardiorespiratory system dynamics.

Neural correlates of risk taking in violent criminal offenders characterized by emotional hypo- and hyper-reactivity.

PubMed

Prehn, Kristin; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Schulze, Lars; Berger, Christoph; Vohs, Knut; Fleischer, Monika; Hauenstein, Karlheinz; Keiper, Peter; Domes, Gregor; Herpertz, Sabine C

2013-01-01

Recent approaches suggest that emotional reactivity can be used to differentiate between subgroups of individuals who are at risk for showing elevated levels of aggression and violence. In this study, we examined how emotion governs decision making within two subgroups of antisocial criminal offenders with either emotional hypo- or hyper-reactivity compared with healthy, noncriminal controls. Offenders were recruited from high-security forensic treatment facilities and penal institutions and underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during a financial decision-making task. In this task, participants were required to choose between low-risk (bonds) and high-risk alternatives (stocks). Bonds were always the safe choice; stocks could win or lose, with a varying degree of uncertainty. We found that emotionally hypo-reactive offenders differed most from healthy controls by showing diminished neural activation in the rostral anterior cingulate cortex in response to uncertainty as well as decreased activity in the prefrontal cortex when trying to regulate their behavior accordingly (i.e., when consistently choosing "safe alternatives"). Hence, the data indicate that emotionally hypo-reactive offenders (with psychopathic traits) constitute a special subgroup within antisocial offenders characterized in particular by a limited capacity to emotionally represent uncertainty and to anticipate punishment.

Characterizing vaccine-associated risks using cubic smoothing splines.

PubMed

Brookhart, M Alan; Walker, Alexander M; Lu, Yun; Polakowski, Laura; Li, Jie; Paeglow, Corrie; Puenpatom, Tosmai; Izurieta, Hector; Daniel, Gregory W

2012-11-15

Estimating risks associated with the use of childhood vaccines is challenging. The authors propose a new approach for studying short-term vaccine-related risks. The method uses a cubic smoothing spline to flexibly estimate the daily risk of an event after vaccination. The predicted incidence rates from the spline regression are then compared with the expected rates under a log-linear trend that excludes the days surrounding vaccination. The 2 models are then used to estimate the excess cumulative incidence attributable to the vaccination during the 42-day period after vaccination. Confidence intervals are obtained using a model-based bootstrap procedure. The method is applied to a study of known effects (positive controls) and expected noneffects (negative controls) of the measles, mumps, and rubella and measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella vaccines among children who are 1 year of age. The splines revealed well-resolved spikes in fever, rash, and adenopathy diagnoses, with the maximum incidence occurring between 9 and 11 days after vaccination. For the negative control outcomes, the spline model yielded a predicted incidence more consistent with the modeled day-specific risks, although there was evidence of increased risk of diagnoses of congenital malformations after vaccination, possibly because of a "provider visit effect." The proposed approach may be useful for vaccine safety surveillance.

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

PubMed

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) concentration in soil from San Luis Potosi, Mexico: levels and ecological and human health risk characterization.

PubMed

Pérez-Vázquez, Francisco J; Orta-García, Sandra T; Ochoa-Martínez, Ángeles C; Pruneda-Álvarez, Lucia G; Ruiz-Vera, Tania; Jiménez-Avalos, Jorge Armando; González-Palomo, Ana K; Pérez-Maldonado, Iván N

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in soils from the city of San Luis Potosi in Mexico and perform an ecological and human health risk characterization. In order to confirm the presence of PBDEs, outdoor surface soil samples were collected and the concentrations of PBDEs in urban, industrial, agricultural, and brick kiln industry areas were determined. The mean total PBDEs levels obtained in the study sites were 25.0 ± 39.5 μg/kg (geometric mean ± standard deviation) in the brick kiln industry zone; 34.5 ± 36.0 μg/kg in the urban zone; 8.00 ± 7.10 μg/kg in the industrial zone and 16.6 ± 15.3 μg/kg in the agricultural zone. The ecological and human health risk characterization showed relatively low-hazard quotient values. However, the moderately high PBDEs levels found in soils highlight the necessity to establish a systematic monitoring process for PBDEs in environmental and biological samples.

MOBILE EMISSIONS CHARACTERIZATION TEAM (HANDOUT)

EPA Science Inventory

The handout describes the Mobile Emissions Characterization Team of EPA's Office of Research and Development, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division. The team conducts research to characterize and evaluate emissions of volatile...

Characterization of ecological risks at the Milltown Reservoir-Clark Fork River Sediments Superfund Site, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pascoe, Gary A.; Blanchet, Richard J.; Linder, Greg L.; Palawski, Don; Brumbaugh, William G.; Canfield, Tim J.; Kemble, Nile E.; Ingersoll, Chris G.; Farag, Aïda M.; DalSoglio, Julie A.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive field and laboratory approach to the ecological risk assessment for the Milltown Reservoir-Clark Fork River Sediments Site, a Superfund site in the Rocky Mountains of Montana, has been described in the preceding reports of this series. The risk assessment addresses concerns over the ecological impacts of upstream releases of mining wastes to fisheries of the upper Clark Fork River (CFR) and the benthic and terrestrial habitats further downstream in Milltown Reservoir. The risk characterization component of the process integrated results from a triad of information sources: (a) chemistry studies of environmental media to identify and quantify exposures of terrestrial and aquatic organisms to site-related contaminants; (b) ecological or population studies of terrestrial vegetation, birds, benthic communities, and fish; and (c) in situ and laboratory toxicity studies with terrestrial and aquatic invertebrates and plants, small mammals, amphibians, and fish exposed to contaminated surface water, sediments, wetland soils, and food sources. Trophic transfer studies were performed on waterfowl, mammals, and predatory birds using field measurement data on metals concentrations in environmental media and lower trophic food sources. Studies with sediment exposures were incorporated into the Sediment Quality Triad approach to evaluate risks to benthic ecology. Overall results of the wetland and terrestrial studies suggested that acute adverse biological effects were largely absent from the wetland; however, adverse effects to reproductive, growth, and physiological end points of various terrestrial and aquatic species were related to metals exposures in more highly contaminated depositional areas. Feeding studies with contaminated diet collected from the upper CFR indicated that trout are at high risk from elevated metals concentrations in surface water, sediment, and aquatic invertebrates. Integration of chemical analyses with toxicological and ecological

Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: characterization and risk factors

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of infection by P. aeruginosa. The specific role of bronchiectasis in both infection and chronic colonization by this microorganism in COPD, however, remains ill defined. To evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for P. aeruginosa recovery from sputum in outpatients with severe COPD, characterizing P. aeruginosa isolates by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and focusing on the influence of bronchiectasis on chronic colonization in these patients. Methods A case-cohort study of 118 patients with severe COPD attended at a Respiratory Day Unit for an acute infectious exacerbation and followed up over one year. High-resolution CT scans were performed during stability for bronchiectasis assessment and sputum cultures were obtained during exacerbation and stability in all patients. P. aeruginosa isolates were genotyped by PFGE. Determinants of the recovery of P. aeruginosa in sputum and chronic colonization by this microorganism were assessed by multivariate analysis. Results P. aeruginosa was isolated from 41 of the 118 patients studied (34.7%). Five of these 41 patients (12.2%) with P. aeruginosa recovery fulfilled criteria for chronic colonization. In the multivariate analysis, the extent of bronchiectasis (OR 9.8, 95% CI: 1.7 to 54.8) and the number of antibiotic courses (OR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1 to 2.5) were independently associated with an increased risk of P. aeruginosa isolation. Chronic colonization was unrelated to the presence of bronchiectasis (p=0.75). In patients with chronic colonization the isolates of P. aeruginosa retrieved corresponded to the same clones during the follow-up, and most of the multidrug resistant isolates (19/21) were harbored by these patients. Conclusions The main risk factors for P. aeruginosa isolation in severe COPD were the extent of bronchiectasis and exposure to antibiotics. Over 10% of these patients fulfilled criteria for

Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing themore » extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.« less

FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

The Effects of Revealed Information on Catastrophe Loss Projection Models' Characterization of Risk: Damage Vulnerability Evidence from Florida.

PubMed

Karl, J Bradley; Medders, Lorilee A; Maroney, Patrick F

2016-06-01

We examine whether the risk characterization estimated by catastrophic loss projection models is sensitive to the revelation of new information regarding risk type. We use commercial loss projection models from two widely employed modeling firms to estimate the expected hurricane losses of Florida Atlantic University's building stock, both including and excluding secondary information regarding hurricane mitigation features that influence damage vulnerability. We then compare the results of the models without and with this revealed information and find that the revelation of additional, secondary information influences modeled losses for the windstorm-exposed university building stock, primarily evidenced by meaningful percent differences in the loss exceedance output indicated after secondary modifiers are incorporated in the analysis. Secondary risk characteristics for the data set studied appear to have substantially greater impact on probable maximum loss estimates than on average annual loss estimates. While it may be intuitively expected for catastrophe models to indicate that secondary risk characteristics hold value for reducing modeled losses, the finding that the primary value of secondary risk characteristics is in reduction of losses in the "tail" (low probability, high severity) events is less intuitive, and therefore especially interesting. Further, we address the benefit-cost tradeoffs that commercial entities must consider when deciding whether to undergo the data collection necessary to include secondary information in modeling. Although we assert the long-term benefit-cost tradeoff is positive for virtually every entity, we acknowledge short-term disincentives to such an effort. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Medication Desensitization: Characterization of Outcomes and Risk Factors for Reactions.

PubMed

Murray, Taryn S; Rice, Todd W; Wheeler, Arthur P; Phillips, Elizabeth J; Dworski, Ryszard T; Stollings, Joanna L

2016-03-01

Although its mechanisms are poorly understood, desensitization has been used to induce a temporary state of immune unresponsiveness in patients who have IgE-, non-IgE-, or pharmacologically mediated reactions when a drug has no alternatives. The purpose of this study was to characterize the outcomes and identify risk factors for reactions during drug desensitization. A retrospective review of electronic medical records of adult patients undergoing drug desensitization from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2013, was conducted in 2 intensive care units at a tertiary medical center. We used multivariate analysis to determine if specified risk factors were associated with reacting during the desensitization. Reactions were classified according to the pretest probability prior to desensitization, and then, reactions during desensitization were classified based on the occurrence of cutaneous reactions as follows: successful with no reaction, mild reaction, moderate reaction, or failed. Failure could result from any systemic allergic or cutaneous reaction resulting in procedure termination. The desensitizations were also assessed to determine if the patient required de-escalation secondary to a reaction. A total of 88 desensitizations were performed in 69 patients. Desensitization was completed with no cutaneous reaction in 85% of patients. No baseline characteristic, medication class (P = 0.46), or indication for desensitization (P = 0.59) was associated with having a reaction. Reported histories of urticaria (P < 0.0001) and labored breathing (P = 0.003) during prior exposure were significant in identifying patients who might have a reaction during desensitization. However, neither history of urticaria nor labored breathing was independently associated with having a reaction in multivariate analysis (OR = 0.979, 95% CI = 0.325-2.952, P = 0.970, and OR = 1.626, 95% CI = 0.536-4.931, P = 0.739, respectively). Drug desensitization is safe for patients who have no

A combined field/remote sensing approach for characterizing landslide risk in coastal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francioni, Mirko; Coggan, John; Eyre, Matthew; Stead, Doug

2018-05-01

Understanding the key factors controlling slope failure mechanisms in coastal areas is the first and most important step for analyzing, reconstructing and predicting the scale, location and extent of future instability in rocky coastlines. Different failure mechanisms may be possible depending on the influence of the engineering properties of the rock mass (including the fracture network), the persistence and type of discontinuity and the relative aspect or orientation of the coastline. Using a section of the North Coast of Cornwall, UK, as an example we present a multi-disciplinary approach for characterizing landslide risk associated with coastal instabilities in a blocky rock mass. Remotely captured terrestrial and aerial LiDAR and photogrammetric data were interrogated using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to provide a framework for subsequent analysis, interpretation and validation. The remote sensing mapping data was used to define the rock mass discontinuity network of the area and to differentiate between major and minor geological structures controlling the evolution of the North Coast of Cornwall. Kinematic instability maps generated from aerial LiDAR data using GIS techniques and results from structural and engineering geological surveys are presented. With this method, it was possible to highlight the types of kinematic failure mechanism that may generate coastal landslides and highlight areas that are more susceptible to instability or increased risk of future instability. Multi-temporal aerial LiDAR data and orthophotos were also studied using GIS techniques to locate recent landslide failures, validate the results obtained from the kinematic instability maps through site observations and provide improved understanding of the factors controlling the coastal geomorphology. The approach adopted is not only useful for academic research, but also for local authorities and consultancy's when assessing the likely risks of coastal instability.

Is risk analysis scientific?

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Overview of the Capstone Depleted Uranium Study of Aerosols from Impact with Armored Vehicles: Test Setup and Aerosol Generation, Characterization, and Application in Assessing Dose and Risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parkhurst, MaryAnn; Guilmette, Raymond A.

2009-03-01

The Capstone Depleted Uranium (DU) Aerosol Characterization and Risk Assessment Study was conducted to generate data about DU aerosols generated during the perforation of armored combat vehicles with large-caliber DU penetrators, and to apply the data in assessments of human health risks to personnel exposed to these aerosols, primarily through inhalation, during the 1991 Gulf War or in future military operations. The Capstone study consisted of two components: 1) generating, sampling and characterizing DU aerosols by firing at and perforating combat vehicles and 2) applying the source-term quantities and characteristics of the aerosols to the evaluation of doses and risks.more » This paper reviews the background of the study including the bases for the study, previous reviews of DU particles and health assessments from DU used by the U.S. military, the objectives of the study components, the participants and oversight teams, and the types of exposures it was intended to evaluate. It then discusses exposure scenarios used in the dose and risk assessment and provides an overview of how the field tests and dose and risk assessments were conducted.« less

Current Chemical Risk Management Activities

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

Characterizing Contamination and Assessing Exposure, Risk and Resilience

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA supports its responders' ability to characterize site contamination by developing sampling protocols, sample preparation methods, and analytical methods for chemicals, biotoxins, microbial pathogens, and radiological agents.

Neural measures of social attention across the first years of life: characterizing typical development and markers of autism risk.

PubMed

Luyster, Rhiannon J; Powell, Christine; Tager-Flusberg, Helen; Nelson, Charles A

2014-04-01

Few studies employing event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine infant perception/cognition have systematically characterized age-related changes over the first few years of life. Establishing a 'normative' template of development is important in its own right, and doing so may also better highlight points of divergence for high-risk populations of infants, such as those at elevated genetic risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The present investigation explores the developmental progression of the P1, N290, P400 and Nc components for a large sample of young children between 6 and 36 months of age, addressing age-related changes in amplitude, sensitivity to familiar and unfamiliar stimuli and hemispheric lateralization. Two samples of infants are included: those at low- and high-risk for ASD. The four components of interest show differential patterns of change over time and hemispheric lateralization; however, infants at low- and high-risk for ASD do not show significant differences in patterns of neural response to faces. These results will provide a useful point of reference for future developmental cognitive neuroscience research targeting both typical development and vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Characterizing the Intersection of Co-Occurring Risk Factors for Illicit Drug Abuse and Dependence in a U.S. Nationally Representative Sample

PubMed Central

Kurti, Allison N.; Keith, Diana R.; Noble, Alyssa; Priest, Jeff S.; Sprague, Brian; Higgins, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Few studies have attempted to characterize how co-occurring risk factors for substance use disorders intersect. A recent study examined this question regarding cigarette smoking and demonstrated that co-occurring risk factors generally act independently. The present study examines whether that same pattern of independent intersection of risk factors extends to illicit drug abuse/dependence using a U.S. nationally representative sample (National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2011–2013). Logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) modeling were used to examine risk of past-year drug abuse/dependence associated with a well-established set of risk factors for substance use (age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, poverty, smoking status, alcohol abuse/dependence, mental illness). Each of these risk factors was associated with significant increases in the odds of drug abuse/dependence in univariate logistic regressions. Each remained significant in a multivariate model examining all eight risk factors simultaneously. CART modeling of these 8 risk factors identified subpopulation risk profiles wherein drug abuse/dependence prevalence varied from < 1% to > 80% corresponding to differing combinations of risk factors present. Alcohol abuse/dependence and cigarette smoking had the strongest associations with drug abuse/dependence risk. These results demonstrate that co-occurring risk factors for illicit drug/abuse dependence generally intersect in the same independent manner as risk factors for cigarette smoking, underscoring further fundamental commonalities across these different types of substance use disorders. These results also underscore the fundamental importance of differences in the presence of co-occurring risk factors when considering the often strikingly different prevalence rates of illicit drug abuse/dependence in U.S. population subgroups. PMID:27687534

[Epidemiology and characterization of high-risk genotypes of human Papillomavirus in a population of sexually active adolescents in Ouagadougou].

PubMed

Ouédraogo, C M R; Rahimy, R M L; Zohoncon, T M; Djigma, F W; Yonli, A T; Ouermi, D; Sanni, A; Lankoande, J; Simpore, J

2015-10-01

This cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence and characterization of high-risk HPV genotypes circulating among adolescents in Ouagadougou. From September to December 2013, 200 adolescents recruited from a youth counseling center have voluntarily accepted a swab of the endocervical canal. The identification of the genotypes of the human Papillomavirus (HPV) was performed by real-time polymerase chain reaction technique. The mean age of adolescents was 18.7±0.7 years and 83/200 adolescents were positive for at least one high-risk genotype HPV a prevalence of 41.5%. Twelve genotypes corresponding to 136 infections were characterized: HPV 52 (22.8%), HPV 59 (14.0%), HPV 39 (13.2%), HPV 35 (10.3%), HPV 51 (10.3%), HPV 56 (8.8%), HPV 16 (5.2%), HPV 18 (5.2%), HPV 58 (4.4%), HPV 31 (3.6%), HPV 45 (1.5%), HPV 33 (0.7%). Multiple infections (2-5 virus) statistically associated with age (p=0.0318) was detected in 42.2% of infected females. If the number of sexual partners was statistically associated with the porting of HPV (OR=2.18; 95% CI=1.17 to 4.09), early sexual intercourse and the recent change of sexual partner were not (p>0,05) CONCLUSION: The prevalence of carriage of HPV in this study is high, as described in young people at the start of sexual activity. Identified genotypes are different from those targeted by prophylactic vaccines currently available. A larger study to map genotypes of high-risk HPV circulating in West Africa is necessary for a suitable vaccine. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Product-Related Impurities in Clinical-Grade Recombinant AAV Vectors: Characterization and Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Wright, J. Fraser

2014-01-01

Adeno-associated virus (AAV)-based vectors expressing therapeutic genes continue to demonstrate great promise for the treatment of a wide variety of diseases and together with other gene transfer vectors represent an emerging new therapeutic paradigm comparable in potential impact on human health to that achieved by recombinant proteins and vaccines. A challenge for the current pipeline of AAV-based investigational products as they advance through clinical development is the identification, characterization and lot-to-lot control of the process- and product-related impurities present in even highly purified preparations. Especially challenging are AAV vector product-related impurities that closely resemble the vector itself and are, in some cases, without clear precedent in established biotherapeutic products. The determination of acceptable levels of these impurities in vectors prepared for human clinical product development, with the goal of new product licensure, requires careful risk and feasibility assessment. This review focuses primarily on the AAV product-related impurities that have been described in vectors prepared for clinical development. PMID:28548061

Mammographic density, breast cancer risk and risk prediction

PubMed Central

Vachon, Celine M; van Gils, Carla H; Sellers, Thomas A; Ghosh, Karthik; Pruthi, Sandhya; Brandt, Kathleen R; Pankratz, V Shane

2007-01-01

In this review, we examine the evidence for mammographic density as an independent risk factor for breast cancer, describe the risk prediction models that have incorporated density, and discuss the current and future implications of using mammographic density in clinical practice. Mammographic density is a consistent and strong risk factor for breast cancer in several populations and across age at mammogram. Recently, this risk factor has been added to existing breast cancer risk prediction models, increasing the discriminatory accuracy with its inclusion, albeit slightly. With validation, these models may replace the existing Gail model for clinical risk assessment. However, absolute risk estimates resulting from these improved models are still limited in their ability to characterize an individual's probability of developing cancer. Promising new measures of mammographic density, including volumetric density, which can be standardized using full-field digital mammography, will likely result in a stronger risk factor and improve accuracy of risk prediction models. PMID:18190724

Assessing the joint impact of DNAPL source-zone behavior and degradation products on the probabilistic characterization of human health risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henri, Christopher V.; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; de Barros, Felipe P. J.

2016-02-01

The release of industrial contaminants into the subsurface has led to a rapid degradation of groundwater resources. Contamination caused by Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids (DNAPLs) is particularly severe owing to their limited solubility, slow dissolution and in many cases high toxicity. A greater insight into how the DNAPL source zone behavior and the contaminant release towards the aquifer impact human health risk is crucial for an appropriate risk management. Risk analysis is further complicated by the uncertainty in aquifer properties and contaminant conditions. This study focuses on the impact of the DNAPL release mode on the human health risk propagation along the aquifer under uncertain conditions. Contaminant concentrations released from the source zone are described using a screening approach with a set of parameters representing several scenarios of DNAPL architecture. The uncertainty in the hydraulic properties is systematically accounted for by high-resolution Monte Carlo simulations. We simulate the release and the transport of the chlorinated solvent perchloroethylene and its carcinogenic degradation products in randomly heterogeneous porous media. The human health risk posed by the chemical mixture of these contaminants is characterized by the low-order statistics and the probability density function of common risk metrics. We show that the zone of high risk (hot spot) is independent of the DNAPL mass release mode, and that the risk amplitude is mostly controlled by heterogeneities and by the source zone architecture. The risk is lower and less uncertain when the source zone is formed mostly by ganglia than by pools. We also illustrate how the source zone efficiency (intensity of the water flux crossing the source zone) affects the risk posed by an exposure to the chemical mixture. Results display that high source zone efficiencies are counter-intuitively beneficial, decreasing the risk because of a reduction in the time available for the production

Tomatine adjuvantation of protective immunity to a major pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidate of malaria is mediated via CD8+ T cell release of IFN-gamma.

PubMed

Heal, Karen G; Taylor-Robinson, Andrew W

2010-01-01

The glycoalkaloid tomatine, derived from the wild tomato, can act as a powerful adjuvant to elicit an antigen-specific cell-mediated immune response to the circumsporozoite (CS) protein, a major pre-erythrocytic stage malaria vaccine candidate antigen. Using a defined MHC-class-I-restricted CS epitope in a Plasmodium berghei rodent model, antigen-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte activity and IFN-gamma secretion ex vivo were both significantly enhanced compared to responses detected from similarly stimulated splenocytes from naive and tomatine-saline-immunized mice. Further, through lymphocyte depletion it is demonstrated that antigen-specific IFN-gamma is produced exclusively by the CD8(+) T cell subset. We conclude that the processing of the P. berghei CS peptide as an exogenous antigen and its presentation via MHC class I molecules to CD8(+) T cells leads to an immune response that is an in vitro correlate of protection against pre-erythrocytic malaria. Further characterization of tomatine as an adjuvant in malaria vaccine development is indicated.

Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

Issuance of Final Guidance: Ecological Risk Assessment and Risk Management Principles for Superfund Sites, October 7, 1999

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This guidance is intended to help Superfund risk managers make ecological risk management decisions that are based on sound science, consistent across Regions, and present a characterization of site risks that is transparent to the public.

Characterizing Pediatric Non-Malarial Fever and Identifying the At-Risk Child in Rural Malawi.

PubMed

Kortz, Teresa Bleakly; Blair, Alden; Scarr, Ellen; Mguntha, Andrew Masozi; Bandawe, Gama; Schell, Ellen; Rankin, Sally; Baltzell, Kimberly

2018-01-01

Objective . To characterize children with non-malarial fever at risk of nonrecovery or worsening in rural Malawi. Methods . This is a subgroup analysis of patients ≤14 years of age from a prospective cohort study in non-malarial fever subjects (temperature ≥37.5°C, or fever within 48 hours, and malaria negative) in southern Malawi cared for at a mobile clinic during the 2016 dry (August to September) or wet (November to December) season. Data collection included chart review and questionnaires; 14-day follow-up was conducted. We conducted univariate descriptive statistics on cohort characteristics, bivariate analyses to examine associations between characteristics and outcomes, and multivariate logistic regressions to explore factors associated with nonrecovery. Results . A total of 2893 patients were screened, 401 were enrolled, 286 of these were children, and 280 children completed follow-up. Eighty-seven percent reported symptom resolution, 12.9% reported no improvement, and there were no deaths or hospitalizations. No improvement was associated with dry season presentation (42.6% vs 75.0%, P < .0003), >2 days of symptoms (51.6% vs 72.2%, P = .03), and food insecurity (62.3% vs 86.1%, P = .007). Dry season subjects had a 4.35 times greater likelihood of nonimprovement (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.96-11.11). Household food insecurity and being >2 hours from a permanent clinic were associated with no improvement (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.61, 95% CI = 1.81-14.29; and AOR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.11-5.36, respectively). Conclusion . Outcomes were generally excellent in this rural, outpatient pediatric cohort, though risk factors for nonrecovery included food insecurity, access to a standing clinic, and seasonality. Ideally, this study will inform clinic- and policy-level changes aimed at ameliorating the modifiable risk factors in Malawi and throughout rural Africa.

Groundwater-based water wells characterization from Guinea Bissau (Western Africa): A risk evaluation for the local population.

PubMed

Ferrante, Margherita; Signorelli, Salvatore Santo; Ferlito, Santina Letizia; Grasso, Alfina; Dimartino, Angela; Copat, Chiara

2018-04-01

The study conducted in two regions of Guinea Bissau, Oio and Cacheu, focusing on the characterization of the groundwater supplies sampled during the dry season and their associated risks for human health. Twenty samples were collected in wells located nearby pit latrines. In situ analyses were conducted with Semi-quantitative test strips for the determination of turbidity, pH, chloride, carbonate, sulfites, ammonium, nitrite and nitrate. The analysis of metals was performed by an ICP-MS Elan DRC-e and an ICP-OES Optima 8000. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was applied to evaluate the risk of developing chronic systemic effects derived from exposure to metals. Values of concern of turbidity ammonium, and pH values were lower than the normal range for drinking water in most samples. From both regions, Fe and Al were occasionally found with values higher than the international thresholds fixed by the World Health Organization and by the European Commission for drinking water, while, only in one sample from Cacheu region Pb was found significantly above these limits. THQs resulted next to the level of risk (1) for the highest values found of Al, As, Fe and Mn. Of great concern is the resident risk obtained from a well water of Cacheu for the highest value of Pb (96.8μg/L), because the values of the resident risk found of 1 and 0.7 for child and adults respectively. The results obtained highlighted a close correlation between the chemistry of water and sediment and a correlation with the proximity of the water supplies with the latrines. This study evidenced the potential toxicity of the water supplies for the local populations and the risk of developing chronic systemic effects due to some physico-chemical parameters, the importance of functioning water pipeline system, the importance of maintaining adequate distance between latrines and drinking water access. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solanum tuberosum and Lycopersicon esculentum Leaf Extracts and Single Metabolites Affect Development and Reproduction of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Ventrella, Emanuela; Adamski, Zbigniew; Chudzińska, Ewa; Miądowicz-Kobielska, Mariola; Marciniak, Paweł; Büyükgüzel, Ender; Büyükgüzel, Kemal; Erdem, Meltem; Falabella, Patrizia; Scrano, Laura; Bufo, Sabino Aurelio

2016-01-01

Glycoalkaloids are secondary metabolites commonly found in Solanaceae plants. They have anti-bacterial, anti-fungal and insecticidal activities. In the present study we examine the effects of potato and tomato leaf extracts and their main components, the glycoalkaloids α-solanine, α-chaconine and α-tomatine, on development and reproduction of Drosophila melanogaster wild-type flies at different stages. Parental generation was exposed to five different concentrations of tested substances. The effects were examined also on the next, non-exposed generation. In the first (exposed) generation, addition of each extract reduced the number of organisms reaching the pupal and imaginal stages. Parent insects exposed to extracts and metabolites individually applied showed faster development. However, the effect was weaker in case of single metabolites than in case of exposure to extracts. An increase of developmental rate was also observed in the next, non-exposed generation. The imagoes of both generations exposed to extracts and pure metabolites showed some anomalies in body size and malformations, such as deformed wings and abdomens, smaller black abdominal zone. Our results further support the current idea that Solanaceae can be an impressive source of molecules, which could efficaciously be used in crop protection, as natural extract or in formulation of single pure metabolites in sustainable agriculture.

Microbial Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

2009-01-01

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

Nanomaterials: certain aspects of application, risk assessment and risk communication.

PubMed

Laux, Peter; Tentschert, Jutta; Riebeling, Christian; Braeuning, Albert; Creutzenberg, Otto; Epp, Astrid; Fessard, Valérie; Haas, Karl-Heinz; Haase, Andrea; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Jakubowski, Norbert; Kearns, Peter; Lampen, Alfonso; Rauscher, Hubert; Schoonjans, Reinhilde; Störmer, Angela; Thielmann, Axel; Mühle, Uwe; Luch, Andreas

2018-01-01

Development and market introduction of new nanomaterials trigger the need for an adequate risk assessment of such products alongside suitable risk communication measures. Current application of classical and new nanomaterials is analyzed in context of regulatory requirements and standardization for chemicals, food and consumer products. The challenges of nanomaterial characterization as the main bottleneck of risk assessment and regulation are presented. In some areas, e.g., quantification of nanomaterials within complex matrices, the establishment and adaptation of analytical techniques such as laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and others are potentially suited to meet the requirements. As an example, we here provide an approach for the reliable characterization of human exposure to nanomaterials resulting from food packaging. Furthermore, results of nanomaterial toxicity and ecotoxicity testing are discussed, with concluding key criteria such as solubility and fiber rigidity as important parameters to be considered in material development and regulation. Although an analysis of the public opinion has revealed a distinguished rating depending on the particular field of application, a rather positive perception of nanotechnology could be ascertained for the German public in general. An improvement of material characterization in both toxicological testing as well as end-product control was concluded as being the main obstacle to ensure not only safe use of materials, but also wide acceptance of this and any novel technology in the general public.

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

National-scale Assessment of Air Toxics Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

PubMed

Conners, Erin E; West, Brooke S; Roth, Alexis M; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D; Brouwer, Kimberly C

2016-01-01

Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments

PubMed Central

Conners, Erin E.; West, Brooke S.; Roth, Alexis M.; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G.; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D.; Brouwer, Kimberly C.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ‘place’, including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions. PMID:27191846

Characterizing trabecular bone structure for assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Tsai, Halley; Wang, Xixi; Hobbs, Susan K.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

2015-03-01

While the proximal femur is preferred for measuring bone mineral density (BMD) in fracture risk estimation, the introduction of volumetric quantitative computed tomography has revealed stronger associations between BMD and spinal fracture status. In this study, we propose to capture properties of trabecular bone structure in spinal vertebrae with advanced second-order statistical features for purposes of fracture risk assessment. For this purpose, axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) images were acquired from 28 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. A semi-automated method was used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the central vertebral slice with a circular region of interest (ROI) to exclude cortical bone; pixels within were converted to values indicative of BMD. Six second-order statistical features derived from gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) and the mean BMD within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a generalized radial basis functions (GRBF) neural network to predict the failure load of the specimens; true failure load was measured through biomechanical testing. Prediction performance was evaluated with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric. The best prediction performance was observed with GLCM feature `correlation' (RMSE = 1.02 ± 0.18), which significantly outperformed all other GLCM features (p < 0.01). GLCM feature correlation also significantly outperformed MDCTmeasured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 ± 0.17) (p< 10-4). These results suggest that biomechanical strength prediction in spinal vertebrae can be significantly improved through characterization of trabecular bone structure with GLCM-derived texture features.

CANCER RISK ASSESSMENTS (RA.D.1D)

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessments are based on questions that the assessor asks about scientific information that is relevant to human and/or environmental risk. The risk characterization also provides an evaluation of the assumptions, uncertainties, and selection of studies and models used in th...

Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian

2010-01-01

Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

Modified social ecological model: a tool to guide the assessment of the risks and risk contexts of HIV epidemics.

PubMed

Baral, Stefan; Logie, Carmen H; Grosso, Ashley; Wirtz, Andrea L; Beyrer, Chris

2013-05-17

Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV risk has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of risk to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Proximal individual-level risks, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level risks can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these risks is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level risks. We propose a modified social ecological model (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection risks and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a model may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level risk contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection risks within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV risk among PID and MSM. The MSEM is a flexible model for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at risk for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic studies has traditionally been on

Characterization of the ecological interactions of Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybean, MON 89788, for use in ecological risk assessment

PubMed Central

Horak, Michael J; Rosenbaum, Eric W; Phillips, Samuel L; Kendrick, Daniel L; Carson, David; Clark, Pete L; Nickson, Thomas E

2015-01-01

Abstract As part of an ecological risk assessment, Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybean (MON 89788) was compared to a conventional control soybean variety, A3244, for disease and arthropod damage, plant response to abiotic stress and cold, effects on succeeding plant growth (allelopathic effects), plant response to a bacterial symbiont, and effects on the ability of seed to survive and volunteer in a subsequent growing season. Statistically significant differences between MON 89788 and A3244 were considered in the context of the genetic variation known to occur in soybean and were assessed for their potential impact on plant pest (weed) potential and adverse environmental impact. The results of these studies revealed no effects of the genetic modification that would result in increased pest potential or adverse environmental impact of MON 89788 compared with A3244. This paper illustrates how such characterization studies conducted in a range of environments where the crop is grown are used in an ecological risk assessment of the genetically modified (GM) crop. Furthermore, risk assessors and decision makers use this information when deciding whether to approve a GM crop for cultivation in—or grain import into—their country. PMID:26177011

Marine ω-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid Intake and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Characterized by Tumor-Infiltrating T Cells.

PubMed

Song, Mingyang; Nishihara, Reiko; Cao, Yin; Chun, Eunyoung; Qian, Zhi Rong; Mima, Kosuke; Inamura, Kentaro; Masugi, Yohei; Nowak, Jonathan A; Nosho, Katsuhiko; Wu, Kana; Wang, Molin; Giovannucci, Edward; Garrett, Wendy S; Fuchs, Charles S; Ogino, Shuji; Chan, Andrew T

2016-09-01

Marine ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), including eicosapentaenoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, and docosapentaenoic acid, possess potent immunomodulatory activity and may protect against cancer development. However, evidence relating marine ω-3 PUFAs to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk remains inconclusive. To test the hypothesis that marine ω-3 PUFA intake may be associated with lower risk of CRC subsets characterized by immune infiltrate. This prospective cohort study was conducted among participants in the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2010) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2010). Intake of marine ω-3 PUFAs. Incidence of CRC characterized by CD3+, CD8+, CD45RO (PTPRC)+, or FOXP3+ T-cell densities in tumor tissue, measured by immunohistochemical and computer-assisted image analysis. Among 173 229 predominantly white participants, 125 172 with 2 895 704 person-years of follow-up provided data about marine ω-3 PUFA intake every 4 years through a validated food frequency questionnaire and followed up for incident CRC evaluation. Of 2504 CRC cases, we documented 614 (252 men, 362 women) from which we could assess T-cell infiltration in the tumor microenvironment. The inverse association of marine ω-3 PUFAs intake with CRC risk differed according to FOXP3+ T-cell infiltration: compared with intake of less than 0.15 g/d of marine ω-3 PUFAs, intake of at least 0.35 g/d was associated with a multivariable hazard ratio (HR) of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.40-0.81; P < .001 for trend) for FOXP3+ T-cell-high tumors. In contrast, the HR for FOXP3+ T-cell-low tumors was 1.14 (95% CI, 0.8-1.60) (P = .77 for trend; P = .01 for heterogeneity). No statistically significant differential association was found for high-density tumors (compared with low-density tumors) according to CD3+, CD8+, or CD45RO+ cell density (P ≥ .34 for heterogeneity for all comparisons). In functional assays, the suppressive activity of regulatory T cells was

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

PubMed

Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

2018-01-22

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

Characterization of Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonist Therapy Initiation in High-Risk Patients With Heart Failure.

PubMed

Cooper, Lauren B; Hammill, Bradley G; Peterson, Eric D; Pitt, Bertram; Maciejewski, Matthew L; Curtis, Lesley H; Hernandez, Adrian F

2017-01-01

Heart failure guidelines recommend routine monitoring of serum potassium, and renal function in patients treated with a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA). How these recommendations are implemented in high-risk patients or according to setting of drug initiation is poorly characterized. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries linked to laboratory data in 10 states with prevalent heart failure as of July 1, 2011, and incident MRA use between May 1 and September 30, 2011. Outcomes included laboratory testing before MRA initiation and in the early (days 1-10) and extended (days 11-90) post-initiation periods, based on setting of drug initiation and the presence of renal insufficiency. Additional outcomes included abnormal laboratory results and adverse events proximate to MRA initiation. Of 10 443 Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure started on an MRA, 19.7% were initiated during a hospitalization. Appropriate follow-up laboratory testing across all time periods occurred in 25.2% of patients with inpatient initiation compared with 2.8% of patients begun as an outpatient. Patients with chronic kidney disease had higher rates of both hyperkalemia and acute kidney failure in the early (1.3% and 2.7%, respectively) and extended (5.6% and 9.8%, respectively) post-initiation periods compared with those without chronic kidney disease. Patients initiated on MRA therapy as an outpatient had extremely poor rates of guideline indicated follow-up laboratory monitoring after drug initiation. In particular, patients with chronic kidney disease are at high risk for adverse events after MRA initiation. Quality improvement initiatives focused on systems to improve appropriate laboratory monitoring are needed. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

PubMed

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fischer, A. Paige; Spies, Thomas A; Steelman, Toddi A; Moseley, Cassandra; Johnson, Bart R.; Bailey, John D.; Ager, Alan A; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Charnley, Susan; Collins, Brandon M.; Kline, Jeffrey D; Leahy, Jessica E; Littell, Jeremy; Millington, James D. A.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Olsen, Christine S; Paveglio, Travis B; Roos, Christopher I.; Steen-Adams, Michelle M; Stevens, Forrest R; Vukomanovic, Jelena; White, Eric M; Bowman, David M J S

2016-01-01

Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.

Are engineered nano iron oxide particles safe? an environmental risk assessment by probabilistic exposure, effects and risk modeling.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Deng, Lei; Caballero-Guzman, Alejandro; Nowack, Bernd

2016-12-01

Nano iron oxide particles are beneficial to our daily lives through their use in paints, construction materials, biomedical imaging and other industrial fields. However, little is known about the possible risks associated with the current exposure level of engineered nano iron oxides (nano-FeOX) to organisms in the environment. The goal of this study was to predict the release of nano-FeOX to the environment and assess their risks for surface waters in the EU and Switzerland. The material flows of nano-FeOX to technical compartments (waste incineration and waste water treatment plants) and to the environment were calculated with a probabilistic modeling approach. The mean value of the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of nano-FeOX in surface waters in the EU for a worst-case scenario (no particle sedimentation) was estimated to be 28 ng/l. Using a probabilistic species sensitivity distribution, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) was determined from ecotoxicological data. The risk characterization ratio, calculated by dividing the PEC by PNEC values, was used to characterize the risks. The mean risk characterization ratio was predicted to be several orders of magnitude smaller than 1 (1.4 × 10 - 4 ). Therefore, this modeling effort indicates that only a very limited risk is posed by the current release level of nano-FeOX to organisms in surface waters. However, a better understanding of the hazards of nano-FeOX to the organisms in other ecosystems (such as sediment) needs to be assessed to determine the overall risk of these particles to the environment.

Combined 18F-Fluciclovine PET/MRI Shows Potential for Detection and Characterization of High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Elschot, Mattijs; Selnæs, Kirsten M; Sandsmark, Elise; Krüger-Stokke, Brage; Størkersen, Øystein; Giskeødegård, Guro F; Tessem, May-Britt; Moestue, Siver A; Bertilsson, Helena; Bathen, Tone F

2018-05-01

The objective of this study was to investigate whether quantitative imaging features derived from combined 18 F-fluciclovine PET/multiparametric MRI show potential for detection and characterization of primary prostate cancer. Methods: Twenty-eight patients diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer underwent simultaneous 18 F-fluciclovine PET/MRI before radical prostatectomy. Volumes of interest (VOIs) for prostate tumors, benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) nodules, prostatitis, and healthy tissue were delineated on T2-weighted images, using histology as a reference. Tumor VOIs were marked as high-grade (≥Gleason grade group 3) or not. MRI and PET features were extracted on the voxel and VOI levels. Partial least-squared discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) with double leave-one-patient-out cross-validation was performed to distinguish tumors from benign tissue (BPH, prostatitis, or healthy tissue) and high-grade tumors from other tissue (low-grade tumors or benign tissue). The performance levels of PET, MRI, and combined PET/MRI features were compared using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Voxel and VOI features were extracted from 40 tumor VOIs (26 high-grade), 36 BPH VOIs, 6 prostatitis VOIs, and 37 healthy-tissue VOIs. PET/MRI performed better than MRI and PET alone for distinguishing tumors from benign tissue (AUCs of 87%, 81%, and 83%, respectively, at the voxel level and 96%, 93%, and 93%, respectively, at the VOI level) and high-grade tumors from other tissue (AUCs of 85%, 79%, and 81%, respectively, at the voxel level and 93%, 93%, and 91%, respectively, at the VOI level). T2-weighted MRI, diffusion-weighted MRI, and PET features were the most important for classification. Conclusion: Combined 18 F-fluciclovine PET/multiparametric MRI shows potential for improving detection and characterization of high-risk prostate cancer, in comparison to MRI and PET alone. © 2018 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular

Heightened extended amygdala metabolism following threat characterizes the early phenotypic risk to develop anxiety-related psychopathology

PubMed Central

Shackman, Alexander J.; Fox, Andrew S.; Oler, Jonathan A.; Shelton, Steven E.; Oakes, Terrence R.; Davidson, Richard J.; Kalin, Ned H.

2016-01-01

Children with an anxious temperament (AT) are prone to heightened shyness and behavioral inhibition (BI). When chronic and extreme, this anxious, inhibited phenotype is an important early-life risk factor for the development of anxiety disorders, depression, and co-morbid substance abuse. Individuals with extreme AT often show persistent distress in the absence of immediate threat and this contextually inappropriate anxiety predicts future symptom development. Despite its clear clinical relevance, the neural circuitry governing the maladaptive persistence of anxiety remains unknown. Here, we used a well-established nonhuman primate model of childhood temperament and high-resolution 18fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) imaging to understand the neural systems governing persistent anxiety and clarify their relevance to early-life phenotypic risk. We focused on BI, a core component of anxious temperament, because it affords the moment-by-moment temporal resolution needed to assess contextually appropriate and inappropriate anxiety. From a pool of 109 peri-adolescent rhesus monkeys, we formed groups characterized by high or low levels of BI, as indexed by freezing in response to an unfamiliar human intruder’s profile. The High-BI group showed consistently elevated signs of anxiety and wariness across more than 2 years of assessments. At the time of brain imaging, 1.5 years after initial phenotyping, the High-BI group showed persistently elevated freezing during a 30-min ‘recovery’ period following an encounter with the intruder — more than an order of magnitude greater than the Low-BI group — and this was associated with increased metabolism in the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis, a key component of the central extended amygdala. These observations provide a neurobiological framework for understanding the early phenotypic risk to develop anxiety-related psychopathology, for accelerating the development of improved interventions, and

Characterizing the Epidemiological Transition in Mexico: National and Subnational Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Stevens, Gretchen; Dias, Rodrigo H; Thomas, Kevin J. A; Rivera, Juan A; Carvalho, Natalie; Barquera, Simón; Hill, Kenneth; Ezzati, Majid

2008-01-01

Background Rates of diseases and injuries and the effects of their risk factors can have substantial subnational heterogeneity, especially in middle-income countries like Mexico. Subnational analysis of the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors can improve characterization of the epidemiological transition and identify policy priorities. Methods and Findings We estimated deaths and loss of healthy life years (measured in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) in 2004 from a comprehensive list of diseases and injuries, and 16 major risk factors, by sex and age for Mexico and its states. Data sources included the vital statistics, national censuses, health examination surveys, and published epidemiological studies. Mortality statistics were adjusted for underreporting, misreporting of age at death, and for misclassification and incomparability of cause-of-death assignment. Nationally, noncommunicable diseases caused 75% of total deaths and 68% of total DALYs, with another 14% of deaths and 18% of DALYs caused by undernutrition and communicable, maternal, and perinatal diseases. The leading causes of death were ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular disease, liver cirrhosis, and road traffic injuries. High body mass index, high blood glucose, and alcohol use were the leading risk factors for disease burden, causing 5.1%, 5.0%, and 7.3% of total burden of disease, respectively. Mexico City had the lowest mortality rates (4.2 per 1,000) and the Southern region the highest (5.0 per 1,000); under-five mortality in the Southern region was nearly twice that of Mexico City. In the Southern region undernutrition and communicable, maternal, and perinatal diseases caused 23% of DALYs; in Chiapas, they caused 29% of DALYs. At the same time, the absolute rates of noncommunicable disease and injury burdens were highest in the Southern region (105 DALYs per 1,000 population versus 97 nationally for noncommunicable diseases; 22 versus 19 for injuries

Strategic characterization of anti-drug antibody responses for the assessment of clinical relevance and impact.

PubMed

Tatarewicz, Suzanna M; Mytych, Daniel T; Manning, Marta Starcevic; Swanson, Steven J; Moxness, Michael S; Chirmule, Narendra

2014-06-01

All therapeutic proteins have the potential to induce anti-drug antibodies (ADA). Clinically relevant ADA can impact efficacy and/or safety of a biological therapeutic. Immunogenicity assessment strategy evaluates binding and neutralizing ADA, and the need for additional characterization (e.g., epitope, titer and so on) is determined using a risk-based approach. The choice of characterization assays depends on the type, application and immunogenicity of the therapeutic. ADA characterization can impact the interpretation of the risk profile of a given therapeutic, and offers insight into opportunities for risk mitigation and management. This article describes common ADA characterization methods. Strategic assessment and characterization of clinically relevant ADA are discussed, in order to support clinical options for safe and effective patient care and disease management.

Prevalence of BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations in a Brazilian population sample at-risk for hereditary breast cancer and characterization of its genetic ancestry

PubMed Central

Paula, André E.; Pereira, Rui; Andrade, Carlos E.; Felicio, Paula S.; Souza, Cristiano P.; Mendes, Deise R.P.; Volc, Sahlua; Berardinelli, Gustavo N.; Grasel, Rebeca S.; Sabato, Cristina S.; Viana, Danilo V.; Machado, José Carlos; Costa, José Luis; Mauad, Edmundo C.; Scapulatempo-Neto, Cristovam; Arun, Banu; Reis, Rui M.; Palmero, Edenir I.

2016-01-01

Background There are very few data about the mutational profile of families at-risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) from Latin America (LA) and especially from Brazil, the largest and most populated country in LA. Results Of the 349 probands analyzed, 21.5% were BRCA1/BRCA2 mutated, 65.3% at BRCA1 and 34.7% at BRCA2 gene. The mutation c.5266dupC (former 5382insC) was the most frequent alteration, representing 36.7% of the BRCA1 mutations and 24.0% of all mutations identified. Together with the BRCA1 c.3331_3334delCAAG mutation, these mutations constitutes about 35% of the identified mutations and more than 50% of the BRCA1 pathogenic mutations. Interestingly, six new mutations were identified. Additionally, 39 out of the 44 pathogenic mutations identified were not previously reported in the Brazilian population. Besides, 36 different variants of unknown significance (VUS) were identified. Regarding ancestry, average ancestry proportions were 70.6% European, 14.5% African, 8.0% Native American and 6.8% East Asian. Materials and methods This study characterized 349 Brazilian families at-risk for HBOC regarding their germline BRCA1/BRCA2 status and genetic ancestry. Conclusions This is the largest report of BRCA1/BRCA2 assessment in an at-risk HBOC Brazilian population. We identified 21.5% of patients harboring BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations and characterized the genetic ancestry of a sample group at-risk for hereditary breast cancer showing once again how admixed is the Brazilian population. No association was found between genetic ancestry and mutational status. The knowledge of the mutational profile in a population can contribute to the definition of more cost-effective strategies for the identification of HBOC families. PMID:27741520

Contamination of public transports by Staphylococcus aureus and its carriage by biomedical students: point-prevalence, related risk factors and molecular characterization of methicillin-resistant strains.

PubMed

Mendes, Â; Martins da Costa, P; Rego, D; Beça, N; Alves, C; Moreira, T; Conceição, T; Aires-de-Sousa, M

2015-08-01

To analyse the contamination of public transports by Staphylococcus aureus and assess its carriage by biomedical students, focussing on the point-prevalence, related risk factors and molecular characterization of methicillin-resistant strains. Cross-sectional survey. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) isolated from handrails of buses (n = 112) and trains (n = 79) circulating in Porto and from nasal swabs of local university students (n = 475) were quantified, characterized by molecular typing methods and related to possible risk factors. The MRSA prevalence in buses (16.1%) was not significantly different from trains (8.9%). There was also no identifiable association between the counts of MSSA and MRSA in buses and trains and the number of travellers in each sampling day, specific routes (including those passing by main hospitals) or other risk factors. Of the students, 37.1% carried S. aureus, and having a part-time job or smoking were found to be risk factors for carriage. EMRSA-15 (ST22-SCCmecIVh) was the prevalent MRSA clonal lineage, found not only in the buses (n = 14) and trains (n = 2) but also in the single MRSA-carrier among the students. The characteristics of the community-associated Southwest Pacific MRSA clone were found in a single ST30-IVa isolate, which may suggest a recent SCCmec acquisition by an MSSA background in the community. The spread of EMRSA-15, a common hospital-associated lineage, among different public transports and as a nasal coloniser is of concern and warrants adequate public health control measures. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization and risk factors of vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE) among animal-affiliated workers in Malaysia.

PubMed

Getachew, Y; Hassan, L; Zakaria, Z; Zaid, C Z M; Yardi, A; Shukor, R A; Marawin, L T; Embong, F; Aziz, S A

2012-11-01

This study determined the risk factors and characteristics of vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE) among individuals working with animals in Malaysia. Targeted cross-sectional studies accompanied with laboratory analysis for the identification and characterization of resistance and virulence genes and with genotype of VRE were performed. VRE were detected in 9·4% (95% CI: 6·46-13·12) of the sampled populations. Enterococcus faecium, Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus gallinarum were isolated, and vanA was detected in 70% of the isolates. Enterococcus faecalis with vanB was obtained from one foreign poultry worker. At least one virulence gene was detected in >50% of Ent. faecium and Ent. faecalis isolates. The esp and gelE genes were common among Ent. faecium (58·3%) and Ent. faecalis (78%), respectively. The VRE species showed diverse RAPD profiles with some clustering of strains based on the individual's background. However, the risk factors found to be significantly associated with the prevalence of VRE were age (OR: 5·39, 95% CI: 1·98-14·61) and previous hospitalization (OR: 4·06, 95% CI: 1·33-12·35). VRE species isolated from individuals in this study have high level of vancomycin resistance, were genetically diverse and possessed the virulence traits. Age of individuals and history of hospitalization rather than occupational background determined VRE colonization. This study provides comprehensive findings on the epidemiological and molecular features of VRE among healthy individuals working with animals. © 2012 The Authors Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

Methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl: health risk uncertainties and research directions.

PubMed Central

Davis, J M

1998-01-01

With the way cleared for increased use of the fuel additive methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl (MMT) in the United States, the issue of possible public health impacts associated with this additive has gained greater attention. In assessing potential health risks of particulate Mn emitted from the combustion of MMT in gasoline, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency not only considered the qualitative types of toxic effects associated with inhaled Mn, but conducted extensive exposure-response analyses using various statistical approaches and also estimated population exposure distributions of particulate Mn based on data from an exposure study conducted in California when MMT was used in leaded gasoline. Because of limitations in available data and the need to make several assumptions and extrapolations, the resulting risk characterization had inherent uncertainties that made it impossible to estimate health risks in a definitive or quantitative manner. To support an improved health risk characterization, further investigation is needed in the areas of health effects, emission characterization, and exposure analysis. PMID:9539013

Injector element characterization methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, George B., Jr.

1988-01-01

Characterization of liquid rocket engine injector elements is an important part of the development process for rocket engine combustion devices. Modern nonintrusive instrumentation for flow velocity and spray droplet size measurement, and automated, computer-controlled test facilities allow rapid, low-cost evaluation of injector element performance and behavior. Application of these methods in rocket engine development, paralleling their use in gas turbine engine development, will reduce rocket engine development cost and risk. The Alternate Turbopump (ATP) Hot Gas Systems (HGS) preburner injector elements were characterized using such methods, and the methodology and some of the results obtained will be shown.

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

2015-01-01

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

PubMed Central

Wolt, Jeffrey D

2009-01-01

Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

Risk Evaluation for Cyclic Aliphatic Bromide Cluster (HBCD Cluster)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

Advances in risk assessment and communication.

PubMed

Goldstein, Bernard D

2005-01-01

Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

Use of Electrical Conductivity Logging to Characterize the Geological Context of Releases at UST Sites

EPA Science Inventory

Risk is the combination of hazard and exposure. Risk characterization at UST release sites has traditionally emphasized hazard (presence of residual fuel) with little attention to exposure. Exposure characterization often limited to a one-dimensional model such as the RBCA equa...

Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2016-01-01

The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

Characterizing Genetic Risk at Known Prostate Cancer Susceptibility Loci in African Americans

PubMed Central

Haiman, Christopher A.; Chen, Gary K.; Blot, William J.; Strom, Sara S.; Berndt, Sonja I.; Kittles, Rick A.; Rybicki, Benjamin A.; Isaacs, William B.; Ingles, Sue A.; Stanford, Janet L.; Diver, W. Ryan; Witte, John S.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Kolb, Suzanne; Signorello, Lisa B.; Yamamura, Yuko; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Thun, Michael J.; Murphy, Adam; Casey, Graham; Sheng, Xin; Wan, Peggy; Pooler, Loreall C.; Monroe, Kristine R.; Waters, Kevin M.; Le Marchand, Loic; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Stram, Daniel O.; Henderson, Brian E.

2011-01-01

GWAS of prostate cancer have been remarkably successful in revealing common genetic variants and novel biological pathways that are linked with its etiology. A more complete understanding of inherited susceptibility to prostate cancer in the general population will come from continuing such discovery efforts and from testing known risk alleles in diverse racial and ethnic groups. In this large study of prostate cancer in African American men (3,425 prostate cancer cases and 3,290 controls), we tested 49 risk variants located in 28 genomic regions identified through GWAS in men of European and Asian descent, and we replicated associations (at p≤0.05) with roughly half of these markers. Through fine-mapping, we identified nearby markers in many regions that better define associations in African Americans. At 8q24, we found 9 variants (p≤6×10−4) that best capture risk of prostate cancer in African Americans, many of which are more common in men of African than European descent. The markers found to be associated with risk at each locus improved risk modeling in African Americans (per allele OR = 1.17) over the alleles reported in the original GWAS (OR = 1.08). In summary, in this detailed analysis of the prostate cancer risk loci reported from GWAS, we have validated and improved upon markers of risk in some regions that better define the association with prostate cancer in African Americans. Our findings with variants at 8q24 also reinforce the importance of this region as a major risk locus for prostate cancer in men of African ancestry. PMID:21637779

Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

2013-01-01

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

Characterizing Risks of Exposures to Combined Stressors: An Overview

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) addresses the impacts of multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors on communities, resulting from complex exposures for populations with a variety of vulnerabilities. These efforts focus on real world exposure scenarios and applications that ra...

Non-invasive Characterization of the Histopathologic Features of Pulmonary Nodules of the Lung Adenocarcinoma Spectrum using Computer Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) – a Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Maldonado, Fabien; Boland, Jennifer M.; Raghunath, Sushravya; Aubry, Marie Christine; Bartholmai, Brian J.; deAndrade, Mariza; Hartman, Thomas E.; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Sykes, Anne-Marie; Yang, Ping; Yi, Eunhee S.; Robb, Richard A.; Peikert, Tobias

2013-01-01

Introduction Pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum are characterized by distinctive morphological and radiological features and variable prognosis. Non-invasive high-resolution computed-tomography (HRCT)-based risk stratification tools are needed to individualize their management. Methods Radiological measurements of histopathologic tissue invasion were developed in a training set of 54 pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum and validated in 86 consecutively resected nodules. Nodules were isolated and characterized by computer-aided analysis and data were analyzed by Spearman correlation, sensitivity, specificity as well as the positive and negative predictive values. Results Computer Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) can non-invasively characterize pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Unsupervised clustering analysis of HRCT data identified 9 unique exemplars representing the basic radiologic building blocks of these lesions. The exemplar distribution within each nodule correlated well with the proportion of histologic tissue invasion, Spearman R=0.87,p < 0.0001 and 0.89,p < 0.0001 for the training and the validation set, respectively. Clustering of the exemplars in three-dimensional space corresponding to tissue invasion and lepidic growth was used to develop a CANARY decision algorithm, which successfully categorized these pulmonary nodules as “aggressive” (invasive adenocarcinoma) or “indolent” (adenocarcinoma in situ and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of this approach for the detection of “aggressive” lesions were 95.4%, 96.8%, 95.4% and 96.8%, respectively in the training set and 98.7%, 63.6%, 94.9% and 87.5%, respectively in the validation set. Conclusion CANARY represents a promising tool to non-invasively risk stratify pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum. PMID:23486265

The characterization and risk assessment of the `Red Forest` radioactive waste burial site at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bungai, D.A.; Skalskij, A.S.; Dzhepo, S.P.

The `Red Forest` radioactive waste burials created during emergency clean-up activities at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant represent a serious source of radioactive contamination of the local ground water system with 9OSr concentration in ground water exceeding the drinking water standard by 3-4 orders of magnitude. In this paper we present results of our hydrogeological and radiological `Red Forest` site characterization studies, which allow us to estimate 9OSr subsurface migration parameters. We use then these parameters to assess long terrain radionuclide transport to groundwater and surface water, and to analyze associated health risks. Our analyses indicate that 9OSr transport via groundmore » water pathway from `Red Forest` burials to the adjacent Pripyat River is relatively insignificant due to slow release of 9OSr from the waste burials (less than 1% of inventory per year) and due to long enough ground water residence time in the subsurface, which allows substantial decay of the radioactive contaminant. Tins result and our previous analyses indicate, that though conditions of radioactive waste storage in burials do not satisfy Ukrainian regulation on radiation protection, health risks caused by radionuclide migration to ground water from `Red Forest` burials do not justify application of expensive countermeasures.« less

Positive Emotional Engagement and Autism Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lambert-Brown, Brittany L.; McDonald, Nicole M.; Mattson, Whitney I.; Martin, Katherine B.; Ibañez, Lisa V.; Stone, Wendy L.; Messinger, Daniel S.

2015-01-01

Positive emotional engagement develops in the context of face-to-face interactions during the first 6 months of life. Deficits in emotional engagement are characteristic of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and may characterize the younger siblings of children with ASD (high-risk siblings). High-risk siblings are likely to exhibit a broad range of…

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in HIV patients: risk factors associated with colonization and/or infection and methods for characterization of isolates - a systematic review.

PubMed

Ferreira, Dennis de Carvalho; Silva, Glaucilene Rodrigues da; Cavalcante, Fernanda Sampaio; Carmo, Flavia Lima do; Fernandes, Leonardo Alexandre; Moreira, Suelen; Passos, Mauro Romero Leal; Colombo, Ana Paula Vieira; Santos, Katia Regina Netto dos

2014-11-01

Staphylococcus aureus is an important cause of infections and HIV-infected individuals are frequently susceptible to this pathogen. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review to identify both the risk factors associated with colonization/infection by methicillin-resistant S. aureus in HIV patients and the methods used for characterization of isolates. An electronic search of articles published between January 2001 and December 2013 was first conducted. Among 116 studies categorized as being at a quality level of A, B or C, only 9 studies were considered to have high methodological quality (level A). The majority of these studies were retrospective (4/9 studies). The risk factors associated with colonization/infection by S. aureus were use of antimicrobials (4/9 studies), previous hospitalization (4/9 studies) and low CD4+ T lymphocyte counts (<200 cells/μl) (3/9 studies). Culture in mannitol salt agar (3/9 studies) and the latex agglutination test (5/9 studies) were the main methods used for bacterial phenotypic identification. Genotypic profiles were accessed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (6/9 studies) and USA300 was the most prevalent lineage (5/9 studies). Most isolates were resistant to erythromycin (3/9 studies) and susceptible to vancomycin (4/9 studies). Ultimately, use of antimicrobials and previous hospitalization were the main risk factors for colonization/infection by methicillin-resistant S. aureus in HIV-infected individuals. However, the numbers of evaluated patients, the exclusion and inclusion criteria and the characterization of the S. aureus isolates were not uniform, which made it difficult to establish the characteristics associated with HIV patients who are colonized/infected by S. aureus.

Integrating Safety Assessment Methods using the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the current light water reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of systems, structures, and components (SSC) degradations or failures that initiate safety significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very highmore » degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated primarily based on engineering judgment backed by a set of conservative engineering calculations. The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about LWR design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development (R&D) in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the RISMC Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as margins management strategies. The purpose of the RISMC Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk

AN APPROACH FOR CHARACTERIZING TROPOSPHERIC OZONE RISK TO FOREST

EPA Science Inventory

The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial natur...

Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology

Treesearch

A Paige Fischer; Thomas A Spies; Toddi A Steelman; Cassandra Moseley; Bart R Johnson; John D Bailey; Alan A Ager; Patrick Bourgeron; Susan Charnley; Brandon M Collins; Jeff Kline; Jessica E Leahy; Jeremy S Littell; James DA Millington; Max Nielsen-Pincus; Christine S Olsen; Travis B Paveglio; Christopher I Roos; Michelle M Steen-Adams; Forrest R Stevens; Jelena Vukomanovic; Eric White; David MJS Bowman

2016-01-01

Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in...

New Capitalism, Risk, and Subjectification in an Early Childhood Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bialostok, Steve; Kamberelis, George

2010-01-01

"New capitalism" has been characterized as an economic period in which insecurity, flux, and uncertainty exist in the workplace. Capitalism attempts to tame that uncertainty through risk taking. Taking risks has become what one must do with risk. Economic discourses of embracing risk--thoroughly grounded in the ideologies of neoliberalism--are…

MOLECULAR METHODS USED TO ASSESS THE RISKS OF TRANSGENE FLOW; BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA WED has initiated a gene flow project to characterize ecological risks of gene flow from GM plants to native species. Development of molecular assays for risk characterization down to gene expression level is of high interest to the EPA. Phylogenetic analyses of ampl...

Risk communication: Uncertainties and the numbers game

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortigara, M.

1995-08-30

The science of risk assessment seeks to characterize the potential risk in situations that may pose hazards to human health or the environment. However, the conclusions reached by the scientists and engineers are not an end in themselves - they are passed on to the involved companies, government agencies, legislators, and the public. All interested parties must then decide what to do with the information. Risk communication is a type of technical communication that involves some unique challenges. This paper first defines the relationships between risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication and then explores two issues in risk communication:more » addressing uncertainty and putting risk number into perspective.« less

Characterization of backyard poultry production systems and disease risk in the central zone of Chile.

PubMed

Hamilton-West, C; Rojas, H; Pinto, J; Orozco, J; Hervé-Claude, L P; Urcelay, S

2012-08-01

Backyard poultry production systems (BPS) are an important and widespread form of poultry production. There is a common perception that biosecurity standards in BPS are generally poor and BPS are usually associated with animal diseases and zoonoses. In this study BPS were identified in the vicinity of six wetlands, having these a higher risk of presenting and introducing avian diseases such as HPAI and Newcastle disease, as defined by the national veterinary services, in to Chile's main poultry production area. BPS were characterized through a field questionnaire and the main areas covered by the survey were BPS structure, biosecurity and value chain. The BPS identified in this study share most characteristics on biosecurity, poultry management and product commercialization, but it was possible to identify a certain degree of variation within and among the study sites. BPS in Chile are similar to those in other regions, with a relatively small flock size (average 37 birds), a low level of biosecurity measures and lack of poultry disease management. Management findings include that most farmers used mixed/partial confinement, with low or no biosecurity and disease control measures in place. Eggs were the main output and were used mainly for home consumption or sale at local markets. Sick birds' treatment with drugs approved for other species or for human use could represent a risk to human health, owing to the possible presence of drug residues in poultry products. Despite the different structures of the poultry sector worldwide, BPS can play a major role in disease maintenance and spread because its management conditions characteristics and the lack of animal health services adapted to these production systems. This should be an alert message to the veterinary authorities to improve coverage of veterinary assistance and surveillance activities in backyard poultry production. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the Linkages between Air Pollution Epidemiology and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Bell, Michelle L.; Walker, Katy; Hubbell, Bryan

2011-01-01

Background: Air pollution epidemiology plays an integral role in both identifying the hazards of air pollution as well as supplying the risk coefficients that are used in quantitative risk assessments. Evidence from both epidemiology and risk assessments has historically supported critical environmental policy decisions. The extent to which risk assessors can properly specify a quantitative risk assessment and characterize key sources of uncertainty depends in part on the availability, and clarity, of data and assumptions in the epidemiological studies. Objectives: We discuss the interests shared by air pollution epidemiology and risk assessment communities in ensuring that the findings of epidemiological studies are appropriately characterized and applied correctly in risk assessments. We highlight the key input parameters for risk assessments and consider how modest changes in the characterization of these data might enable more accurate risk assessments that better represent the findings of epidemiological studies. Discussion: We argue that more complete information regarding the methodological choices and input data used in epidemiological studies would support more accurate risk assessments—to the benefit of both disciplines. In particular, we suggest including additional details regarding air quality, demographic, and health data, as well as certain types of data-rich graphics. Conclusions: Relatively modest changes to the data reported in epidemiological studies will improve the quality of risk assessments and help prevent the misinterpretation and mischaracterization of the results of epidemiological studies. Such changes may also benefit epidemiologists undertaking meta-analyses. We suggest workshops as a way to improve the dialogue between the two communities. PMID:21816702

Health Risk Assessment for Uranium in Groundwater - An Integrated Case Study Based on Hydrogeological Characterization and Dose Calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franklin, M. R.; Veiga, L. H.; Py, D. A., Jr.; Fernandes, H. M.

2010-12-01

The uranium mining and milling facilities of Caetité (URA) is the only active uranium production center in Brazil. Operations take place at a very sensitive semi-arid region in the country where water resources are very scarce. Therefore, any contamination of the existing water bodies may trigger critical consequences to local communities because their sustainability is closely related to the availability of the groundwater resources. Due to the existence of several uranium anomalies in the region, groundwater can present radionuclide concentrations above the world average. The radiological risk associated to the ingestion of these waters have been questioned by members of the local communities, NGO’s and even regulatory bodies that suspected that the observed levels of radionuclide concentrations (specially Unat) could be related to the uranium mining and milling operations. Regardless the origin of these concentrations the fear that undesired health effects were taking place (e.g. increase in cancer incidence) remain despite the fact that no evidence - based on epidemiological studies - is available. This paper intends to present the connections between the local hydrogeology and the radiological characterization of groundwater in the neighboring areas of the uranium production center to understand the implications to the human health risk due to the ingestion of groundwater. The risk assessment was performed, taking into account the radiological and the toxicological risks. Samples from 12 wells have been collected and determinations of Unat, Thnat, 226Ra, 228Ra and 210Pb were performed. The radiation-related risks were estimated for adults and children by the calculation of the annual effective doses. The potential non-carcinogenic effects due to the ingestion of uranium were evaluated by the estimation of the hazard index (HI). Monte Carlo simulations were used to calculate the uncertainty associated with these estimates, i.e. the 95% confidence interval

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Variables Affecting Emerging Adults' Self-Reported Risk and Reckless Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duangpatra, Krisna N. K.; Bradley, Graham L.; Glendon, A. Ian

2009-01-01

Young adults' behaviors are frequently characterized by risk-taking and recklessness. Few studies have examined the correlates of risk and reckless behaviors in emerging adults. Drawing on theories emphasising multifactorial effects of personality, social, and cognitive variables, this study explores psychosocial factors contributing to risk and…

Quantitative analysis of steroidal glycosides in different organs of Easter lily (Lilium longiflorum Thunb.) by LC-MS/MS.

PubMed

Munafo, John P; Gianfagna, Thomas J

2011-02-09

The bulbs of the Easter lily ( Lilium longiflorum Thunb.) are regularly consumed in Asia as both food and medicine, and the beautiful white flowers are appreciated worldwide as an attractive ornamental. The Easter lily is a rich source of steroidal glycosides, a group of compounds that may be responsible for some of the traditional medicinal uses of lilies. Since the appearance of recent reports on the role steroidal glycosides in animal and human health, there is increasing interest in the concentration of these natural products in plant-derived foods. A LC-MS/MS method performed in multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) mode was used for the quantitative analysis of two steroidal glycoalkaloids and three furostanol saponins, in the different organs of L. longiflorum. The highest concentrations of the total five steroidal glycosides were 12.02 ± 0.36, 10.09 ± 0.23, and 9.36 ± 0.27 mg/g dry weight in flower buds, lower stems, and leaves, respectively. The highest concentrations of the two steroidal glycoalkaloids were 8.49 ± 0.3, 6.91 ± 0.22, and 5.83 ± 0.15 mg/g dry weight in flower buds, leaves, and bulbs, respectively. In contrast, the highest concentrations of the three furostanol saponins were 4.87 ± 0.13, 4.37 ± 0.07, and 3.53 ± 0.06 mg/g dry weight in lower stems, fleshy roots, and flower buds, respectively. The steroidal glycoalkaloids were detected in higher concentrations as compared to the furostanol saponins in all of the plant organs except the roots. The ratio of the steroidal glycoalkaloids to furostanol saponins was higher in the plant organs exposed to light and decreased in proportion from the aboveground organs to the underground organs. Additionally, histological staining of bulb scales revealed differential furostanol accumulation in the basal plate, bulb scale epidermal cells, and vascular bundles, with little or no staining in the mesophyll of the bulb scale. An understanding of the distribution of steroidal glycosides in the different

Adolescent Risk Behavior and Experiences with Flow

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bettencourt, Kristen

2017-01-01

This study explored the relationship between adolescent risk behavior and flow, a state of optimal experience characterized by a spontaneous and fluid, yet deeply focused state of awareness (Csikszentmihalyi, 1996). The purpose of the study was to better understand adolescent risk taking, as well as how it may interact with experiences of flow.…

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China.

PubMed

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-08-21

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.

NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sources. This national-scale effort will be initiated for the base year 1996 and repeated every three years thereafter to track trends and inform program development. Provide broad-scale understanding of inhalation risks for a subset of atmospherically-emitted air toxics to inform further data-gathering efforts and priority-setting for the EPA's Air Toxics Programs.

Deciding in the Dark: Age Differences in Intuitive Risk Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shulman, Elizabeth P.; Cauffman, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Elevated levels of risky behavior in adolescence may signal developmental change in unconscious appraisal of risk. Yet, prior research examining adolescent risk judgment has used tasks that elicit conscious deliberation. The present study, in contrast, attempts to characterize age differences in (less conscious) intuitive impressions of risk.…

Subsea release of oil from a riser: an ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Nazir, Muddassir; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Sadiq, Rehan

2008-10-01

This study illustrates a newly developed methodology, as a part of the U.S. EPA ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework, to predict exposure concentrations in a marine environment due to underwater release of oil and gas. It combines the hydrodynamics of underwater blowout, weathering algorithms, and multimedia fate and transport to measure the exposure concentration. Naphthalene and methane are used as surrogate compounds for oil and gas, respectively. Uncertainties are accounted for in multimedia input parameters in the analysis. The 95th percentile of the exposure concentration (EC(95%)) is taken as the representative exposure concentration for the risk estimation. A bootstrapping method is utilized to characterize EC(95%) and associated uncertainty. The toxicity data of 19 species available in the literature are used to calculate the 5th percentile of the predicted no observed effect concentration (PNEC(5%)) by employing the bootstrapping method. The risk is characterized by transforming the risk quotient (RQ), which is the ratio of EC(95%) to PNEC(5%), into a cumulative risk distribution. This article describes a probabilistic basis for the ERA, which is essential from risk management and decision-making viewpoints. Two case studies of underwater oil and gas mixture release, and oil release with no gaseous mixture are used to show the systematic implementation of the methodology, elements of ERA, and the probabilistic method in assessing and characterizing the risk.

Assessing the inter-observer variability of Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) to characterize lung adenocarcinomas.

PubMed

Nakajima, Erica C; Frankland, Michael P; Johnson, Tucker F; Antic, Sanja L; Chen, Heidi; Chen, Sheau-Chiann; Karwoski, Ronald A; Walker, Ronald; Landman, Bennett A; Clay, Ryan D; Bartholmai, Brian J; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Peikert, Tobias; Massion, Pierre P; Maldonado, Fabien

2018-01-01

Lung adenocarcinoma (ADC), the most common lung cancer type, is recognized increasingly as a disease spectrum. To guide individualized patient care, a non-invasive means of distinguishing indolent from aggressive ADC subtypes is needed urgently. Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) is a novel computed tomography (CT) tool that characterizes early ADCs by detecting nine distinct CT voxel classes, representing a spectrum of lepidic to invasive growth, within an ADC. CANARY characterization has been shown to correlate with ADC histology and patient outcomes. This study evaluated the inter-observer variability of CANARY analysis. Three novice observers segmented and analyzed independently 95 biopsy-confirmed lung ADCs from Vanderbilt University Medical Center/Nashville Veterans Administration Tennessee Valley Healthcare system (VUMC/TVHS) and the Mayo Clinic (Mayo). Inter-observer variability was measured using intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). The average ICC for all CANARY classes was 0.828 (95% CI 0.76, 0.895) for the VUMC/TVHS cohort, and 0.852 (95% CI 0.804, 0.901) for the Mayo cohort. The most invasive voxel classes had the highest ICC values. To determine whether nodule size influenced inter-observer variability, an additional cohort of 49 sub-centimeter nodules from Mayo were also segmented by three observers, with similar ICC results. Our study demonstrates that CANARY ADC classification between novice CANARY users has an acceptably low degree of variability, and supports the further development of CANARY for clinical application.

Source-to-Outcome Microbial Exposure and Risk Modeling Framework

EPA Science Inventory

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a computer-based data-delivery and modeling approach that integrates interdisciplinary fate/transport, exposure, and impact models and databases to characterize potential health impacts/risks due to pathogens. As such, a QMRA ex...

Site characterization and qualitative human risk assessment for the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research Building Site, Forest Glen, Maryland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrison, W.; Nashold, B.; Meshkov, N.K.

1990-07-01

The proposed eight-acre building site for the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR) facility is a former uncontrolled landfill. As a prerequisite to foundation design and to formulation of an excavation plan, it was necessary to characterize the landfill materials and to conduct a qualitative human risk assessment. Chemical analysis of surface-water, groundwater, and landfill soils followed the analytical protocol promulgated under the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Contract Laboratory Program for its Target Compound List of contaminants. This protocol was used to determine concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)/pesticides, inorganic compounds,more » radioactive materials, asbestos, and many of the metals analyzed. 49 refs., 19 figs., 24 tabs.« less

Characterizing the risk of infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in commercial passenger aircraft using quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Jones, Rachael M; Masago, Yoshifumi; Bartrand, Timothy; Haas, Charles N; Nicas, Mark; Rose, Joan B

2009-03-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to predict the likelihood and spatial organization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in a commercial aircraft. Passenger exposure was predicted via a multizone Markov model in four scenarios: seated or moving infectious passengers and with or without filtration of recirculated cabin air. The traditional exponential (k = 1) and a new exponential (k = 0.0218) dose-response function were used to compute infection risk. Emission variability was included by Monte Carlo simulation. Infection risks were higher nearer and aft of the source; steady state airborne concentration levels were not attained. Expected incidence was low to moderate, with the central 95% ranging from 10(-6) to 10(-1) per 169 passengers in the four scenarios. Emission rates used were low compared to measurements from active TB patients in wards, thus a "superspreader" emitting 44 quanta/h could produce 6.2 cases or more under these scenarios. Use of respiratory protection by the infectious source and/or susceptible passengers reduced infection incidence up to one order of magnitude.

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment Applied to Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie; Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott

2008-01-01

A simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.

Mineralogical, chemical and toxicological characterization of urban air particles.

PubMed

Čupr, Pavel; Flegrová, Zuzana; Franců, Juraj; Landlová, Linda; Klánová, Jana

2013-04-01

Systematic characterization of morphological, mineralogical, chemical and toxicological properties of various size fractions of the atmospheric particulate matter was a main focus of this study together with an assessment of the human health risks they pose. Even though near-ground atmospheric aerosols have been a subject of intensive research in recent years, data integrating chemical composition of particles and health risks are still scarce and the particle size aspect has not been properly addressed yet. Filling this gap, however, is necessary for reliable risk assessment. A high volume ambient air sampler equipped with a multi-stage cascade impactor was used for size specific particle collection, and all 6 fractions were a subject of detailed characterization of chemical (PAHs) and mineralogical composition of the particles, their mass size distribution and genotoxic potential of organic extracts. Finally, the risk level for inhalation exposure associated to the carcinogenic character of the studied PAHs has been assessed. The finest fraction (<0.45 μm) exhibited the highest mass, highest active surface, highest amount of associated PAHs and also highest direct and indirect genotoxic potentials in our model air sample. Risk assessment of inhalation scenario indicates the significant cancer risk values in PM 1.5 size fraction. This presented new approach proved to be a useful tool for human health risk assessment in the areas with significant levels of air dust concentration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2018-01-01

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Psychosocial risks: is risk management strategic enough in business and policy making?

PubMed

Langenhan, Melissa K; Leka, Stavroula; Jain, Aditya

2013-06-01

In times of continuous change and volatile markets, organizations are increasingly characterized by downsizing, work intensification, and resource rationalization. This has resulted in diversification, and the emergence of new risks within the field of occupational health and safety, with an important impact. This paper focuses on one such type of risk in the modern workplace-psychosocial risks. The current study aimed to explore stakeholder perspectives, regarding the extent to which psychosocial risks are incorporated into strategic risk management practices, at both the business and policy level. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 professionals, representing employer, expert, policy maker, and trade union stakeholder perspectives. It was found that the majority of organizations do not sufficiently, if at all, understand and incorporate psychosocial risks into strategic decision making, whereby the key barrier related to practical difficulties of not knowing how to manage psychosocial risks adequately. The study found that there is a need to close the gap between policy and practice on a number of levels. Future recommendations comprise a policy framework and infrastructure underpinned by educational initiatives, partnerships, and networks to drive a shift in attitudes toward recognizing the duality of the concept of risk (including both potential negative and positive outcomes) and moving beyond simple regulatory compliance.

Psychosocial Risks: Is Risk Management Strategic Enough in Business and Policy Making?

PubMed Central

Langenhan, Melissa K.; Leka, Stavroula; Jain, Aditya

2013-01-01

Background In times of continuous change and volatile markets, organizations are increasingly characterized by downsizing, work intensification, and resource rationalization. This has resulted in diversification, and the emergence of new risks within the field of occupational health and safety, with an important impact. This paper focuses on one such type of risk in the modern workplace—psychosocial risks. The current study aimed to explore stakeholder perspectives, regarding the extent to which psychosocial risks are incorporated into strategic risk management practices, at both the business and policy level. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 professionals, representing employer, expert, policy maker, and trade union stakeholder perspectives. Results It was found that the majority of organizations do not sufficiently, if at all, understand and incorporate psychosocial risks into strategic decision making, whereby the key barrier related to practical difficulties of not knowing how to manage psychosocial risks adequately. Conclusion The study found that there is a need to close the gap between policy and practice on a number of levels. Future recommendations comprise a policy framework and infrastructure underpinned by educational initiatives, partnerships, and networks to drive a shift in attitudes toward recognizing the duality of the concept of risk (including both potential negative and positive outcomes) and moving beyond simple regulatory compliance. PMID:23961331

Variations of emission characterization of PAHs emitted from different utility boilers of coal-fired power plants and risk assessment related to atmospheric PAHs.

PubMed

Wang, Ruwei; Liu, Guijian; Zhang, Jiamei

2015-12-15

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) represent important source of atmospheric PAHs, however, their emission characterization are still largely unknown. In this work, the concentration, distribution and gas-particle partitioning of PM10- and gas-phase PAHs in flue gas emitted from different coal-fired utility boilers were investigated. Moreover, concentration and distribution in airborne PAHs from different functional areas of power plants were studied. People's inhalatory and dermal exposures to airborne PAHs at these sites were estimated and their resultant lung cancer and skin cancer risks were assessed. Results indicated that the boiler capacity and operation conditions have significant effect on PAH concentrations in both PM10 and gas phases due to the variation of combustion efficiency, whereas they take neglected effect on PAH distributions. The wet flue gas desulphurization (WFGD) takes significant effect on the scavenging of PAH in both PM10 and gas phases, higher scavenging efficiency were found for less volatile PAHs. PAH partitioning is dominated by absorption into organic matter and accompanied by adsorption onto PM10 surface. In addition, different partitioning mechanism is observed for individual PAHs, which is assumed arising from their chemical affinity and vapor pressure. Risk assessment indicates that both inhalation and dermal contact greatly contribute to the cancer risk for CFPP workers and nearby residents. People working in workshop are exposed to greater inhalation and dermal exposure risk than people living in nearby vicinity and working office. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

CHARACTERIZING SOILS FOR HAZAROUDS WASTE SITE ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of this paper is to provide guidance to Remedial Project Managers (RPM) and On-Scene Coordinators (OSC) concerning soil characterization data types required for decision-making in the CERCLA RI/FS process related to risk assessment and remedial alternative evaluation ...

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

PubMed Central

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-01-01

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution. PMID:26308032

Characterization of NEOs from the Policy Perspective: Implications from Problem and Solution Definitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, E.

2015-12-01

The characterization of near-Earth-objects (NEOs) in regard to physical attributes and potential risk and impact factors presents a complex and complicates scientific and engineering challenge. The societal and policy risks and impacts are no less complex, yet are rarely considered in the same context as material properties or related factors. The objective of this contribution is to position the characterization of NEOs within the public policy process domain as a means to reflect on the science-policy nexus in regard to risks associated with NEOs. This will be accomplished through, first, a brief overview of the science-policy nexus, followed by a discussion of several policy process frameworks, such as agenda setting and the multiple streams model, focusing events, and punctuated equilibrium, and their application and appropriateness to the problem of NEOs. How, too, for example, does NEO hazard and risk compare with other low probability, high risk, hazards in regard to public policy? Finally, we will reflect on the implications of alternative NEO "solutions" and the characterization of the NEO "problem," and the political and public acceptance of policy alternatives as a way to link NEO science and policy in the context of the overall NH004 panel.

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of phthalates exposure and risk for cosmetics and perfume sales clerks.

PubMed

Huang, Po-Chin; Liao, Kai-Wei; Chang, Jung-Wei; Chan, Shiou-Hui; Lee, Ching-Chang

2018-02-01

High levels of phthalates in name-brand cosmetics products have raised concerns about phthalate exposure and the associated risk for cosmetics sales clerks. We assessed the exposure and risk of phthalates in 23 cosmetics, 4 perfume, and 9 clothing department store sales clerks. We collected 108 urine samples pre- and post-shift and analyzed for phthalate monoesters through liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry. Phthalates in 32 air samples were collected and analyzed through gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Demographic characteristics and information on the exposure scenarios were obtained through questionnaires. Principal component analysis, cluster and risk analysis were applied to identify the exposure profile and risk of phthalate. Median post-shift levels of urinary mono-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (MEHP) and monomethyl phthalate (MMP) were significantly higher than the corresponding pre-shift levels in cosmetics group (53.3 vs. 30.9 μg/g-c for MEHP; 34.4 vs. 22.5 μg/g-c for MMP; both P < 0.05) and the post-shift levels of urinary MMP was significantly higher than the corresponding pre-shift levels in perfume group (26.6 vs. 14.9 μg/g-c, P < 0.05). Median levels of air diethyl phthalate (DEP) in cosmetics (1.77 μg/m 3 ) and perfume (1.75 μg/m 3 ) groups and di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) in perfume group (6.98 μg/m 3 ) were higher than those in clothing group (DEP: 0.89; DEHP: 2.16 μg/m 3 ). Over half of cosmetic (70%) and perfume sale clerks had exceeded cumulative risk of phthalate exposure for anti-androgenic effect. We concluded that cosmetic and perfume workers had increased risks of reproductive or hepatic effects for DBP and DEHP exposure. We suggest that not only inhalation but dermal exposure is important route of phthalate exposure for cosmetics and perfume workers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing the risk assessment of heavy metals and sampling uncertainty analysis in paddy field by geostatistics and GIS.

PubMed

Liu, Xingmei; Wu, Jianjun; Xu, Jianming

2006-05-01

For many practical problems in environmental management, information about soil heavy metals, relative to threshold values that may be of practical importance is needed at unsampled sites. The Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou (HJH) Plain has always been one of the most important rice production areas in Zhejiang province, China, and the soil heavy metal concentration is directly related to the crop quality and ultimately the health of people. Four hundred and fifty soil samples were selected in topsoil in HJH Plain to characterize the spatial variability of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Cd. Ordinary kriging and lognormal kriging were carried out to map the spatial patterns of heavy metals and disjunctive kriging was used to quantify the probability of heavy metal concentrations higher than their guide value. Cokriging method was used to minimize the sampling density for Cu, Zn and Cr. The results of this study could give insight into risk assessment of environmental pollution and decision-making for agriculture.

Characterizing uncertainty when evaluating risk management metrics: risk assessment modeling of Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ready-to-eat deli meats.

PubMed

Gallagher, Daniel; Ebel, Eric D; Gallagher, Owen; Labarre, David; Williams, Michael S; Golden, Neal J; Pouillot, Régis; Dearfield, Kerry L; Kause, Janell

2013-04-01

This report illustrates how the uncertainty about food safety metrics may influence the selection of a performance objective (PO). To accomplish this goal, we developed a model concerning Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) deli meats. This application used a second order Monte Carlo model that simulates L. monocytogenes concentrations through a series of steps: the food-processing establishment, transport, retail, the consumer's home and consumption. The model accounted for growth inhibitor use, retail cross contamination, and applied an FAO/WHO dose response model for evaluating the probability of illness. An appropriate level of protection (ALOP) risk metric was selected as the average risk of illness per serving across all consumed servings-per-annum and the model was used to solve for the corresponding performance objective (PO) risk metric as the maximum allowable L. monocytogenes concentration (cfu/g) at the processing establishment where regulatory monitoring would occur. Given uncertainty about model inputs, an uncertainty distribution of the PO was estimated. Additionally, we considered how RTE deli meats contaminated at levels above the PO would be handled by the industry using three alternative approaches. Points on the PO distribution represent the probability that - if the industry complies with a particular PO - the resulting risk-per-serving is less than or equal to the target ALOP. For example, assuming (1) a target ALOP of -6.41 log10 risk of illness per serving, (2) industry concentrations above the PO that are re-distributed throughout the remaining concentration distribution and (3) no dose response uncertainty, establishment PO's of -4.98 and -4.39 log10 cfu/g would be required for 90% and 75% confidence that the target ALOP is met, respectively. The PO concentrations from this example scenario are more stringent than the current typical monitoring level of an absence in 25 g (i.e., -1.40 log10 cfu/g) or a stricter criteria of absence

Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

Effects of alternative styles of risk information on EMF risk perception.

PubMed

Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Elstein, Arthur; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Støvring, Henrik

2010-10-01

Risk scenarios characterized by exposures to new technologies with unknown health effects, together with limited appreciation of benefits pose a challenge to risk communication. The present report illustrates this situation through a study of the perceived risk from mobile phones and mobile masts in residential areas. Good information should objectively convey the current state of knowledge. The research question is then how to inform lay people so that they trust and understand the information. We used an Internet-based survey with 1687 Danish participants randomized to three types of information about radiation from mobile phones and masts. The objective was to study whether different types of information were rated as equally useful, informative, comprehensible, and trustworthy. Moreover, an important issue was whether information would influence risk perception and intended behavior. The conclusion is that lay people rate information about risks associated with a new and largely unknown technology more useful and trustworthy when provided with brief statements about how to handle the risk, rather than more lengthy technical information about why the technology may or may not entail health hazards. Further, the results demonstrate that information may increase concern among a large proportion of the population, and that discrepancies exist between expressed concern and intended behavior.

Characterization of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in vegetables near industrial areas of Shanghai, China: Sources, exposure, and cancer risk.

PubMed

Jia, Jinpu; Bi, Chunjuan; Zhang, Junfeng; Jin, Xiaopei; Chen, Zhenlou

2018-06-13

Dietary consumption of contaminated vegetables may contribute to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure in humans; however, this exposure pathway has not been examined thoroughly. This study aims to characterize the concentrations of PAHs in six types of vegetables grown near industrial facilities in Shanghai, China. We analyzed 16 individual PAHs on the US EPA priority list, and the total concentration in vegetables ranged from 65.7 to 458.0 ng g -1 in the following order: leafy vegetables (romaine lettuce, Chinese cabbage and Shanghai green cabbage) > stem vegetables (lettuce) > seed and pod vegetables (broad bean) > rhizome vegetables (daikon). Vegetable species, wind direction, and local anthropogenic emissions were determinants of PAH concentrations in the edible part of the vegetable. Using isomer ratios and principal component analysis, PAHs in the vegetables were determined to be mainly from coal and wood combustion. The sources of PAHs in the six types of vegetables varied. Daily ingestion of PAHs due to dietary consumption of these vegetables ranged from 0.71 to 14.06 ng d -1 kg -1 , with contributions from Chinese cabbage > broad bean > romaine > Shanghai green cabbage > lettuce > daikon. The daily intake doses adjusted by body weight in children were higher than those in teenagers and adults. Moreover, in adults, higher concentrations of PAHs were found in females than in males. For individuals of different age and gender, the incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCRs) from consuming these six vegetables ranged from 4.47 × 10 -7 to 6.39 × 10 -5 . Most were higher than the acceptable risk level of 1 × 10 -6 . Our findings demonstrate that planting vegetables near industrial facilities may pose potential cancer risks to those who consume the vegetables. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Strategic and Legal Risks of Work-Integrated Learning: An Enterprise Risk Management Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cameron, Craig

2017-01-01

Work-integrated learning (WIL) is a risky business for universities. WIL is a strategic risk worthy of pursuing by universities in the prevailing higher education environment, which is characterized by competition, changes in funding arrangements and stakeholder demand for WIL. Nevertheless the strategic opportunities that WIL presents cannot be…

Evidence Report: Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conkin, Johnny; Norcross, Jason R.; Wessel, James H. III; Abercromby, Andrew F. J.; Klein, Jill S.; Dervay, Joseph P.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is identified by the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) as a recognized risk to human health and performance in space, as defined in the HRP Program Requirements Document (PRD). This Evidence Report provides a summary of the evidence that has been used to identify and characterize this risk. Given that tissue inert gas partial pressure is often greater than ambient pressure during phases of a mission, primarily during extravehicular activity (EVA), there is a possibility that decompression sickness may occur.

Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

2012-01-01

The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

To risk or not to risk: Anxiety and the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation.

PubMed

Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

2016-06-01

Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and inappropriate engagement in danger mitigation behavior. However, no research has addressed whether the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation behavior is affected by anxiety, though it is well recognized that this calibration is crucial for adaptive functioning. The current study aimed to examine whether anxiety is characterized by better or worse calibration of danger mitigation behavior to variations in risk magnitude. Low and high trait-anxious participants were presented with information about the likelihood and severity of a danger (loud noise burst) on each trial. Participants could decide to mitigate this danger by investing a virtual coin, at the cost of losing danger mitigation ability on subsequent trials. Importantly, level of risk likelihood and severity were varied independently, and the multiplicative relationship between the 2 defined total danger. Multilevel modeling showed that the magnitude of total danger predicted the probability of coin investments, over and above the effects of risk likelihood and severity, suggesting that participants calibrated their danger mitigation behavior to integrated risk information. Crucially, this calibration was affected by trait anxiety, indicating better calibration in high trait-anxious individuals. These results are discussed in light of existing knowledge and models of the effect of anxiety on risk perception and decision-making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments can rely upon tissue dosimetry estimates in animals and humans obtained from physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. However, risk assessment also increasingly requires characterization of uncertainty and variability; such characterization for PBPK model predictions represents a continuing challenge to both modelers and users. Current practices show significant progress in specifying deterministic biological models and the non-deterministic (often statistical) models, estimating their parameters using diverse data sets from multiple sources, and using them to make predictions and characterize uncertainty and variability. The International Workshop on Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models, held Oct 31-Nov 2, 2006, sought to identify the state-of-the-science in this area and recommend priorities for research and changes in practice and implementation. For the short term, these include: (1) multidisciplinary teams to integrate deterministic and non-deterministic/statistical models; (2) broader use of sensitivity analyses, including for structural and global (rather than local) parameter changes; and (3) enhanced transparency and reproducibility through more complete documentation of the model structure(s) and parameter values, the results of sensitivity and other analyses, and supporting, discrepant, or excluded data. Longer-term needs include: (1) theoretic and practical methodological impro

Characterizing users of new psychoactive substances using psychometric scales for risk-related behavior.

PubMed

Vreeker, Annabel; van der Burg, Babette G; van Laar, Margriet; Brunt, Tibor M

2017-07-01

Studies investigating risk-related behavior in relation to new psychoactive substance (NPS) use are sparse. The current study investigated characteristics of NPS users by comparing risk-related behavior of NPS users to that of illicit drugs (ID) users and licit substances users and non-users (NLC) users. In this cross-sectional study we included 528 individuals across an age range of 18-72years. Using a web-based questionnaire we collected self-report data on substance use, sensation seeking, impulsivity, peer substance use and risk perception of substance use. NPS and ID users had a higher level of sensation seeking compared to NLC users (NPS users: p<0.001; ID users: p<0.001). NPS users (p<0.001), but not ID users (p=0.16), had increased levels of impulsivity compared to NLC users. NPS users had significantly higher scores for sensation seeking (F 1,423 =51.52, p<0.001) and impulsivity (F 1,423 =6.15, p=0.01) compared to ID users. Additionally, NPS users had significantly more peers who use substances compared to ID and NLC users. Also, NPS and ID users had lower risk perception for most substances than NLC users. NPS users had lower risk perception for most substances than ID users. The findings highlight that NPS users show substantial more risk-related behavior than both ID and NLC users. Therefore, NPS users might be considered as a distinctive group of substance users that need another approach in terms of prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary patterns and gastric cancer risk in Mexico.

PubMed

Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar; Hernández-Ramírez, Raúl U; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth

2014-01-01

Multiple epidemiological studies have evaluated the relationship between diet and gastric cancer (GC), focusing on individual foods and nutrients. However, some studies have estimated the association between dietary patterns and GC risk. To identify the dietary patterns of residents of Mexico City and to assess the association of these patterns with GC, a population-based case-control study with 248 histologically confirmed GC cases and 478 controls paired by age and sex was carried out. The dietary patterns were characterized from 22 food groups through factorial analysis. Three major dietary patterns were identified. Pattern 1 was characterized by the consumption of vegetables, fruits, and white meat; subjects in the highest quintile of this pattern had a lower GC risk than those in the lowest quintile [odds ratio (OR(Q5 vs. Q1)) = 0.43; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.24-0.77; P trend = 0.010]. A comparison between the extreme quintiles of the third pattern (which included major consumption of refined grains and desserts), resulted in the following: OR(Q5 vs. Q1) = 4.80; 95%CI: 2.56-8.98; P-trend < 0.001). Additionally, we found no significant association between the second pattern (characterized by high consumption of Mexican food) and GC risk. This is the first study of associations between dietary patterns and GC in Mexico to confirm that GC risk is lower in individuals with healthy dietary patterns.

Flood risk governance arrangements in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matczak, P.; Lewandowski, J.; Choryński, A.; Szwed, M.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

2015-06-01

The STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices Towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements) project, funded by the European Commission, investigates strategies for dealing with flood risk in six European countries: Belgium, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden and in 18 vulnerable urban regions in these countries. The project aims to describe, analyse, explain, and evaluate the main similarities and differences between the selected EU Member States in terms of development and performance of flood risk governance arrangements. It also discusses the scientific and societal importance of these similarities and differences. Attention is paid to identification and characterization of shifts in flood risk governance arrangements and in flood risk management strategies and to determination of triggering factors and restraining factors. An assessment of a change of resilience and appropriateness (legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency) of flood risk governance arrangements in Poland is presented and comparison with other European countries is offered.

Characterization and assessment of potential environmental risk of tailings stored in seven impoundments in the Aries river basin, Western Romania

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to examine the potential environmental risk of tailings resulted after precious and base metal ores processing, stored in seven impoundments located in the Aries river basin, Romania. The tailings were characterized by mineralogical and elemental composition, contamination indices, acid rock drainage generation potential and water leachability of hazardous/priority hazardous metals and ions. Multivariate statistical methods were used for data interpretation. Results Tailings were found to be highly contaminated with several hazardous/priority hazardous metals (As, Cu, Cd, Pb), and pose potential contamination risk for soil, sediments, surface and groundwater. Two out of the seven studied impoundments does not satisfy the criteria required for inert wastes, shows acid rock drainage potential and thus can contaminate the surface and groundwater. Three impoundments were found to be highly contaminated with As, Pb and Cd, two with As and other two with Cu. The tailings impoundments were grouped based on the enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, contamination factor and contamination degree of 7 hazardous/priority hazardous metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn) considered typical for the studied tailings. Principal component analysis showed that 47% of the elemental variability was attributable to alkaline silicate rocks, 31% to acidic S-containing minerals, 12% to carbonate minerals and 5% to biogenic elements. Leachability of metals and ions was ascribed in proportion of 61% to silicates, 11% to acidic minerals and 6% to the organic matter. A variability of 18% was attributed to leachability of biogenic elements (Na, K, Cl-, NO3-) with no potential environmental risk. Pattern recognition by agglomerative hierarchical clustering emphasized the grouping of impoundments in agreement with their contamination degree and acid rock drainage generation potential. Conclusions Tailings stored in the studied impoundments were found to

Cryptosporidiosis susceptibility and risk: a case study.

PubMed

Makri, Anna; Modarres, Reza; Parkin, Rebecca

2004-02-01

Regional estimates of cryptosporidiosis risks from drinking water exposure were developed and validated, accounting for AIDS status and age. We constructed a model with probability distributions and point estimates representing Cryptosporidium in tap water, tap water consumed per day (exposure characterization); dose response, illness given infection, prolonged illness given illness; and three conditional probabilities describing the likelihood of case detection by active surveillance (health effects characterization). The model predictions were combined with population data to derive expected case numbers and incidence rates per 100,000 population, by age and AIDS status, borough specific and for New York City overall in 2000 (risk characterization). They were compared with same-year surveillance data to evaluate predictive ability, assumed to represent true incidence of waterborne cryptosporidiosis. The predicted mean risks, similar to previously published estimates for this region, overpredicted observed incidence-most extensively when accounting for AIDS status. The results suggest that overprediction may be due to conservative parameters applied to both non-AIDS and AIDS populations, and that biological differences for children need to be incorporated. Interpretations are limited by the unknown accuracy of available surveillance data, in addition to variability and uncertainty of model predictions. The model appears sensitive to geographical differences in AIDS prevalence. The use of surveillance data for validation and model parameters pertinent to susceptibility are discussed.

Synergy and other ineffective mixture risk definitions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hertzberg, R.; MacDonell, M.; Environmental Assessment

2002-04-08

A substantial effort has been spent over the past few decades to label toxicologic interaction outcomes as synergistic, antagonistic, or additive. Although useful in influencing the emotions of the public and the press, these labels have contributed fairly little to our understanding of joint toxic action. Part of the difficulty is that their underlying toxicological concepts are only defined for two chemical mixtures, while most environmental and occupational exposures are to mixtures of many more chemicals. Furthermore, the mathematical characterizations of synergism and antagonism are inextricably linked to the prevailing definition of 'no interaction,' instead of some intrinsic toxicological property.more » For example, the US EPA has selected dose addition as the no-interaction definition for mixture risk assessment, so that synergism would represent toxic effects that exceed those predicted from dose addition. For now, labels such as synergism are useful to regulatory agencies, both for qualitative indications of public health risk as well as numerical decision tools for mixture risk characterization. Efforts to quantify interaction designations for use in risk assessment formulas, however, are highly simplified and carry large uncertainties. Several research directions, such as pharmacokinetic measurements and models, and toxicogenomics, should promote significant improvements by providing multi-component data that will allow biologically based mathematical models of joint toxicity to replace these pairwise interaction labels in mixture risk assessment procedures.« less

Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures

EPA Science Inventory

The implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mixtures is poorly characterized, exposure data are uncertain and toxicologic data on the known com...

Risk Factors for and Management of MPN-Associated Bleeding and Thrombosis.

PubMed

Martin, Karlyn

2017-10-01

The Philadelphia chromosome-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) are characterized by both thrombotic and bleeding complications. The purpose of this review is to describe the risk factors associated with bleeding and thrombosis in MPN, as well as to review prevention strategies and management of these complications. Well-described risk factors for thrombotic complications include older age and history of prior thrombosis, along with traditional cardiovascular and venous thromboembolic risk factors. More recently, JAK2 V617F mutation has been found to carry an increased risk of thrombotic complications, whereas CALR has a lower risk than JAK2 mutation. Factors associated with an increased risk of bleeding in MPN include a prior history of bleeding, acquired von Willebrand syndrome, and primary myelofibrosis. Recent findings suggest that thrombocytosis carries a higher risk of bleeding than thrombosis in MPN, and aspirin may exacerbate this risk of bleeding, particularly in CALR-mutated ET. Much of the management of MPN focuses on predicting risk of bleeding and thrombosis and initiating prophylaxis to prevent complications in those at high risk of thrombosis. Emerging evidence suggests that sub-populations may have bleeding risk that outweighs thrombotic risk, particularly in setting of antiplatelet therapy. Future work is needed to better characterize this balance. At present, a thorough assessment of the risks of bleeding and thrombosis should be undertaken for each patient, and herein, we review risk factors for and management of these complications.

FIFTH NHEERL SYMPOSIUM FLYER -- INDICATORS IN HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Announcement for NHEERL Fifth Symposium - Indicators in Health and Ecological Risk Assessment. The purpose of the symposium is to address assessment of risk to public health or environmental resources which requires competent characterization of stressors and corresponding effec...

FIFTH NHEERL SYMPOSIUM POSTER -- INDICATORS IN HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Poster for announcing NHEERL Fifth Symposium - Indicators in Health and Ecological Risk Assessment. The purpose of the symposium is to address assessment of risk to public health or environmental resources which requires competent characterization of stressors and corresponding ...

Assessing introduction risk using species’ rank-abundance distributions

PubMed Central

Chan, Farrah T.; Bradie, Johanna; Briski, Elizabeta; Bailey, Sarah A.; Simard, Nathalie; MacIsaac, Hugh J.

2015-01-01

Mixed-species assemblages are often unintentionally introduced into new ecosystems. Analysing how assemblage structure varies during transport may provide insights into how introduction risk changes before propagules are released. Characterization of introduction risk is typically based on assessments of colonization pressure (CP, the number of species transported) and total propagule pressure (total PP, the total abundance of propagules released) associated with an invasion vector. Generally, invasion potential following introduction increases with greater CP or total PP. Here, we extend these assessments using rank-abundance distributions to examine how CP : total PP relationships change temporally in ballast water of ocean-going ships. Rank-abundance distributions and CP : total PP patterns varied widely between trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific voyages, with the latter appearing to pose a much lower risk than the former. Responses also differed by taxonomic group, with invertebrates experiencing losses mainly in total PP, while diatoms and dinoflagellates sustained losses mainly in CP. In certain cases, open-ocean ballast water exchange appeared to increase introduction risk by uptake of new species or supplementation of existing ones. Our study demonstrates that rank-abundance distributions provide new insights into the utility of CP and PP in characterizing introduction risk. PMID:25473007

Anesthesia patient risk: a quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E; Lakats, L M; Murphy, D M; Gaba, D M

1997-08-01

The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

Risk analysis for worker exposure to benzene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallenbeck, William H.; Flowers, Roxanne E.

1992-05-01

Cancer risk factors (characterized by route, dose, dose rate per kilogram, fraction of lifetime exposed, species, and sex) were derived for workers exposed to benzene via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit (PEL) and at leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites were evaluated. At the current PEL of 1 ppm, the theoretical lifetime excess risk of cancer from benzene inhalation is ten per 1000. The theoretical lifetime excess risk for worker inhalation exposure at LUST sites ranged from 10 to 40 per 1000. These results indicate that personal protection should be required. The theoretical lifetime excess risk due to soil ingestion is five to seven orders of magnitude less than the inhalation risks.

ISEA2007 panel: Integration of better exposure characterizations into disaster preparedness for responders and the public

PubMed Central

Rodes, Charles E.; Pellizzari, Edo D.; Dellarco, Michael J.; Erickson, Mitchell D.; Vallero, Daniel A.; Reissman, Dori B.; Lioy, Paul J.; Lippmann, Morton; Burke, Thomas A.; Goldstein, Bernard D.

2014-01-01

An expert panel was convened in October 2007 at the International Society for Exposure Analysis Annual Meeting in Durham, NC, entitled “The Path Forward in Disaster Preparedness Since WTC—Exposure Characterization and Mitigation: Substantial Unfinished Business!” The panel prospectively discussed the critical exposure issues being overlooked during disaster responses and highlighted the needs for an optimal blending of exposure characterizations and hazard controls within disaster settings. The cases were made that effective and timely exposure characterizations must be applied during responses to any disaster, whether terrorist, manmade, or natural in origin. The consistent application of exposure sciences across acute and chronic disaster timelines will assure that the most effective strategies are applied to collect the needed information to guide risk characterization and management approaches. Exposure sciences must be effectively applied across all phases of a disaster (defined as rescue, reentry, recovery, and rehabitation—the four Rs) to appropriately characterize risks and guide risk-mitigation approaches. Failure to adequately characterize and control hazardous exposures increases the likelihood of excess morbidity and mortality. Advancing the infrastructure and the technologies to collect the right exposure information before, during, and immediately after disasters would advance our ability to define risks and protect responders and the public better. The panel provided conclusions, recommendations, and next steps toward effective and timely integration of better exposure science into disaster preparedness, including the need for a subsequent workshop to facilitate this integration. All panel presentations and a summary were uploaded to the ISES1 website (http://www.iseaweb.org/Disaster_Preparedness/index.php). PMID:18685563

ISEA2007 panel: integration of better exposure characterizations into disaster preparedness for responders and the public.

PubMed

Rodes, Charles E; Pellizzari, Edo D; Dellarco, Michael J; Erickson, Mitchell D; Vallero, Daniel A; Reissman, Dori B; Lioy, Paul J; Lippmann, Morton; Burke, Thomas A; Goldstein, Bernard D

2008-11-01

An expert panel was convened in October 2007 at the International Society for Exposure Analysis Annual Meeting in Durham, NC, entitled "The Path Forward in Disaster Preparedness Since WTC-Exposure Characterization and Mitigation: Substantial Unfinished Business!" The panel prospectively discussed the critical exposure issues being overlooked during disaster responses and highlighted the needs for an optimal blending of exposure characterizations and hazard controls within disaster settings. The cases were made that effective and timely exposure characterizations must be applied during responses to any disaster, whether terrorist, manmade, or natural in origin. The consistent application of exposure sciences across acute and chronic disaster timelines will assure that the most effective strategies are applied to collect the needed information to guide risk characterization and management approaches. Exposure sciences must be effectively applied across all phases of a disaster (defined as rescue, reentry, recovery, and rehabitation-the four Rs) to appropriately characterize risks and guide risk-mitigation approaches. Failure to adequately characterize and control hazardous exposures increases the likelihood of excess morbidity and mortality. Advancing the infrastructure and the technologies to collect the right exposure information before, during, and immediately after disasters would advance our ability to define risks and protect responders and the public better. The panel provided conclusions, recommendations, and next steps toward effective and timely integration of better exposure science into disaster preparedness, including the need for a subsequent workshop to facilitate this integration. All panel presentations and a summary were uploaded to the ISES(1) website (http://www.iseaweb.org/Disaster_Preparedness/index.php).

Commercial squids: characterization, assessment of potential health benefits/risks and discrimination based on mineral, lipid and vitamin E concentrations.

PubMed

Torrinha, A; Gomes, F; Oliveira, M; Cruz, R; Mendes, E; Delerue-Matos, C; Casal, S; Morais, S

2014-05-01

The most consumed squid species worldwide were characterized regarding their concentrations of minerals, fatty acids, cholesterol and vitamin E. Interspecific comparisons were assessed among species and geographical origin. The health benefits derived from squid consumption were assessed based on daily minerals intake and on nutritional lipid quality indexes. Squids contribute significantly to daily intake of several macro (Na, K, Mg and P) and micronutrients (Cu, Zn and Ni). Despite their low fat concentration, they are rich in long-chain omega-3 fatty acids, particularly docosahexaenoic (DHA) and eicosapentanoic (EPA) acids, with highly favorable ω-3/ω-6 ratios (from 5.7 to 17.7), reducing the significance of their high cholesterol concentration (140-549 mg/100g ww). Assessment of potential health risks based on minerals intake, non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks indicated that Loligo gahi (from Atlantic Ocean), Loligo opalescens (from Pacific Ocean) and Loligo duvaucelii (from Indic Ocean) should be eaten with moderation due to the high concentrations of Cu and/or Cd. Canonical discriminant analysis identified the major fatty acids (C14:0, C18:0, C18:1, C18:3ω-3, C20:4ω-6 and C22:5ω-6), P, K, Cu and vitamin E as chemical discriminators for the selected species. These elements and compounds exhibited the potential to prove authenticity of the commercially relevant squid species. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

2007-01-01

Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

2018-03-01

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

Risk assessment of mountain infrastructure destabilization in the French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duvillard, Pierre-Allain; Ravanel, Ludovic; Deline, Philip

2015-04-01

In the current context of imbalance of geosystems in connection with the rising air temperature for several decades, high mountain environments are especially affected by the shrinkage of glaciers and the permafrost degradation which can trigger slope movements in the rock slopes (rockfall, rock avalanches) or in superficial deposits (slides, rock glacier rupture, thermokarst). These processes generate a risk of direct destabilization for high mountain infrastructure (huts, cable-cars...) in addition to indirect risks for people and infrastructure located on the path of moving rock masses. We here focus on the direct risk of infrastructure destabilization due to permafrost degradation and/or glacier shrinkage in the French Alps. To help preventing these risks, an inventory of all the infrastructure was carried out with a GIS using different data layers among which the Alpine Permafrost Index Map and inventories of the French Alps glaciers in 2006-2009, 1967-1971 and at the end of the Little Ice Age. 1769 infrastructures have been identified in areas likely characterized by permafrost and/or possibly affected by glacier shrinkage. An index of risk of destabilization has been built to identify and to rank infrastructure at risk. This theoretical risk index includes a characterization of hazards and a diagnosis of the vulnerability. The value of hazard is dependent on passive factors (topography, lithology, geomorphological context...) and on so-considered active factors (thermal state of the permafrost, and changing constraints on slopes related to glacier shrinkage). The diagnosis of vulnerability has meanwhile been established by combining the level of potential damage to the exposed elements with their operational and financial values. The combination of hazard and vulnerability determines a degree of risk of infrastructure destabilization (from low to very high). Field work and several inventories of infrastructure damages were used to validate it. The

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

The risk of sustained sexual transmission of Zika is underestimated

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Pathogens often follow more than one transmission route during outbreaks—from needle sharing plus sexual transmission of HIV to small droplet aerosol plus fomite transmission of influenza. Thus, controlling an infectious disease outbreak often requires characterizing the risk associated with multiple mechanisms of transmission. For example, during the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, weighing the relative importance of funeral versus health care worker transmission was essential to stopping disease spread. As a result, strategic policy decisions regarding interventions must rely on accurately characterizing risks associated with multiple transmission routes. The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak challenges our conventional methodologies for translating case-counts into route-specific transmission risk. Critically, most approaches will fail to accurately estimate the risk of sustained sexual transmission of a pathogen that is primarily vectored by a mosquito—such as the risk of sustained sexual transmission of ZIKV. By computationally investigating a novel mathematical approach for multi-route pathogens, our results suggest that previous epidemic threshold estimates could under-estimate the risk of sustained sexual transmission by at least an order of magnitude. This result, coupled with emerging clinical, epidemiological, and experimental evidence for an increased risk of sexual transmission, would strongly support recent calls to classify ZIKV as a sexually transmitted infection. PMID:28934370

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Circadian timing, drowsy driving, and health risk behavior in adolescent drivers.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

Both worldwide and in the UnitedStates, major contributors to adolescent and early adult mortality and morbidity arise from health risks characterized as behavioral misadventure. The large majority of deaths among 10-to 24-year-olds are due to risk-r...

Probabilistic human health risk assessment of degradation-related chemical mixtures in heterogeneous aquifers: Risk statistics, hot spots, and preferential channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henri, Christopher V.; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; de Barros, Felipe P. J.

2015-06-01

The increasing presence of toxic chemicals released in the subsurface has led to a rapid growth of social concerns and the need to develop and employ models that can predict the impact of groundwater contamination on human health risk under uncertainty. Monitored natural attenuation is a common remediation action in many contamination cases. However, natural attenuation can lead to the production of daughter species of distinct toxicity that may pose challenges in pollution management strategies. The actual threat that these contaminants pose to human health depends on the interplay between the complex structure of the geological media and the toxicity of each pollutant byproduct. This work addresses human health risk for chemical mixtures resulting from the sequential degradation of a contaminant (such as a chlorinated solvent) under uncertainty through high-resolution three-dimensional numerical simulations. We systematically investigate the interaction between aquifer heterogeneity, flow connectivity, contaminant injection model, and chemical toxicity in the probabilistic characterization of health risk. We illustrate how chemical-specific travel times control the regime of the expected risk and its corresponding uncertainties. Results indicate conditions where preferential flow paths can favor the reduction of the overall risk of the chemical mixture. The overall human risk response to aquifer connectivity is shown to be nontrivial for multispecies transport. This nontriviality is a result of the interaction between aquifer heterogeneity and chemical toxicity. To quantify the joint effect of connectivity and toxicity in health risk, we propose a toxicity-based Damköhler number. Furthermore, we provide a statistical characterization in terms of low-order moments and the probability density function of the individual and total risks.

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

2015-01-01

Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

Ecological and health risk-based characterization of agricultural soils contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the vicinity of a chemical plant in China.

PubMed

Liu, Geng; Niu, Junjie; Guo, Wenjiong; An, Xiangsheng; Zhao, Long

2016-11-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from chemical plants can cause serious pollution of surrounding agricultural soils. A comprehensive study of agricultural soils was conducted in the vicinity of a chemical plant in China to characterize the soil PAH concentration, as well as their composition and sources. Human health and a screening-level ecological risk assessment were conducted for PAH contamination in agricultural soils. The results showed that the total concentrations of 16 priority PAHs ranged from 250.49 to 9387.26 ng g(-1), with an average of 2780.42 ng g(-1). High molecular weight PAHs (four to six rings) were the dominant component, accounting for more than 60% of all PAHs. Principal component analysis (PCA) and positive matrix factorization model (PMF) suggested that diesel emissions, coal combustion, coke ovens, and fuel combustion and gasoline emissions were the main sources of PAHs in agricultural soils. The ecological risk assessment results based on the effects range-low (ERL), the effects range-median (ERM), and the ecological screening levels (ESL) indicated that the exposure to ∑PAH16 was >ERL, >ERM, and ≥ERL and ESL at 78.1% of the soil sampling stations, and could induce biological effects in mammals. The Bapeq concentrations posed a potential carcinogenic risk to humans. Further risk management and control of soil PAHs in these agricultural soils is required to ensure the safety of the biocoenosis and human health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional multi-compartment ecological risk assessment: Establishing cadmium pollution risk in the northern Bohai Rim, China.

PubMed

Shi, Yajuan; Wang, Ruoshi; Lu, Yonglong; Song, Shuai; Johnson, Andrew C; Sweetman, Andrew; Jones, Kevin

2016-09-01

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been widely applied in characterizing the risk of chemicals to organisms and ecosystems. The paucity of toxicity data on local biota living in the different compartments of an ecosystem and the absence of a suitable methodology for multi-compartment spatial risk assessment at the regional scale has held back this field. The major objective of this study was to develop a methodology to quantify and distinguish the spatial distribution of risk to ecosystems at a regional scale. A framework for regional multi-compartment probabilistic ecological risk assessment (RMPERA) was constructed and corroborated using a bioassay of a local species. The risks from cadmium (Cd) pollution in river water, river sediment, coastal water, coastal surface sediment and soil in northern Bohai Rim were examined. The results indicated that the local organisms in soil, river, coastal water, and coastal sediment were affected by Cd. The greatest impacts from Cd were identified in the Tianjin and Huludao areas. The overall multi-compartment risk was 31.4% in the region. The methodology provides a new approach for regional multi-compartment ecological risk assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Endogenous network of firms and systemic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Qianting; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

2018-02-01

We construct an endogenous network characterized by commercial credit relationships connecting the upstream and downstream firms. Simulation results indicate that the endogenous network model displays a scale-free property which exists in real-world firm systems. In terms of the network structure, with the expansion of the scale of network nodes, the systemic risk increases significantly, while the heterogeneities of network nodes have no effect on systemic risk. As for firm micro-behaviors, including the selection range of trading partners, actual output, labor requirement, price of intermediate products and employee salaries, increase of all these parameters will lead to higher systemic risk.

Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

2001-01-01

We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.

Use of the Escherichia coli Identification Microarray for Characterizing the Health Risks of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Isolated from Foods.

PubMed

Lacher, David W; Gangiredla, Jayanthi; Patel, Isha; Elkins, Christopher A; Feng, Peter C H

2016-10-01

More than 470 serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) have been identified, but not all cause severe illness in humans. Most STEC that cause severe diseases can adhere to epithelial cells, produce specific stx subtypes, and belong to certain serotypes; therefore, these traits appear to be critical STEC risk factors. However, testing for these traits is labor intensive, and serotyping is inadequate because of extensive variations among E. coli O and H antigen types. In the present study, the E. coli identification microarray, which tests for over 40,000 E. coli gene targets, was examined for its potential to quickly characterize STEC strains. Analysis of 47 E. coli isolates, including 31 STEC isolates, recovered from 39 foods revealed that the microarray effectively determined the presence or absence of adherence genes and identified the specific eae allele in 3 isolates. The array identified most of the stx subtypes carried by all the isolates but had some difficulties in discerning between stx 2a , stx 2c , and stx 2d because of the genetic similarities of these subtypes. The array determined the O and H types of 68 and 96% of the isolates, respectively, and although most serotypes were unremarkable, a few known pathogenic serotypes were also found. These selected STEC traits provided a scientific basis for assessing the potential health risks of STEC strains and also showed the importance of H typing in determining health risks. However, the diversity of the STEC group, the complexity of virulence mechanisms, and the variation in pathotypes among strains continue to pose challenges to assessing the potential of STEC strains to cause severe illness.

Characterization of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection and its risk factors in pregnant women from the Republic of Congo.

PubMed

Francine, Ntoumi; Damien, Bakoua; Anna, Fesser; Michael, Kombo; Christevy, Vouvoungui J; Felix, Koukouikila-Koussounda

2016-01-01

Malaria in pregnancy remains a serious public health problem in the Republic of Congo despite the implementation of intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) in 2006. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to characterize Plasmodium falciparum infections and determine possible risk factors in pregnant Congolese women attending an antenatal clinic in a periurban area of southern Brazzaville. This study was conducted from March 2012 to December 2013 in a site where several years ago, high malaria resistance to SP was reported. Pregnant women were enrolled during antenatal visits and the number of received IPTp-SP doses was recorded as well as individual sociodemographic data. Peripheral blood was collected and P. falciparum infection was checked by microscopy and by PCR targeting P. falciparum merozoite surface protein gene (msp2). Haemoglobin concentration was measured and P. falciparum positive samples were typed for msp2 allelic diversity. A total of 363 pregnant women were recruited. The prevalence of asymptomatic P. falciparum infection was 7% and 19% by microscopy and by PCR, respectively. More than one half (51.5%) of the pregnant women were anaemic. Multivariate analysis indicated that P. falciparum infection was associated with anaemia. It was also observed that women who have received IPTp-SP have significantly lower prevalence of infection. The administration of IPTp-SP did not influence the multiplicity of infection (MOI). This first study investigating asymptomatic malaria infection on pregnant women of the Republic of Congo shows that P. falciparum infections were clearly associated with maternal anaemia, and use of IPTp-SP reduced the risk of carrying asymptomatic infections. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

DOE PAGES

White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

2014-01-01

This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

Conditional risk assessment of adolescents’ electronic cigarette perceptions

PubMed Central

Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Gansky, Stuart A.; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Couch, Elizabeth T.; Essex, Gwen; Walsh, Margaret M.

2015-01-01

Objectives Adapt an established instrument for measuring adolescents’ cigarette-related perceptions for new application with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). Methods In this exploratory study, 104 male high school students (40% tobacco ever-users) estimated the probability of potential e-cigarette risks (eg, lung cancer) or benefits (eg, look cool). We calculated associations between risk/benefit composite scores, ever-use, and use intention for e-cigarettes and analogously for combustible cigarettes. Results E-cigarette ever-use was associated with lower perceived risks, with adjusted differences versus never-users greater for e-cigarettes than cigarettes. Risk composite score was inversely associated, and benefit score positively associated, with e-cigarette ever-use and use intention. Conclusion Conditional risk assessment characterized adolescents’ perceived e-cigarette risk/benefit profile, with potential utility for risk-perception measurement in larger future studies. PMID:25741686

Risk-Seeking Versus Risk-Avoiding Investments in Noisy Periodic Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro-Barrientos, J. Emeterio; Walter, Frank E.; Schweitzer, Frank

We study the performance of various agent strategies in an artificial investment scenario. Agents are equipped with a budget, x(t), and at each time step invest a particular fraction, q(t), of their budget. The return on investment (RoI), r(t), is characterized by a periodic function with different types and levels of noise. Risk-avoiding agents choose their fraction q(t) proportional to the expected positive RoI, while risk-seeking agents always choose a maximum value qmax if they predict the RoI to be positive ("everything on red"). In addition to these different strategies, agents have different capabilities to predict the future r(t), dependent on their internal complexity. Here, we compare "zero-intelligent" agents using technical analysis (such as moving least squares) with agents using reinforcement learning or genetic algorithms to predict r(t). The performance of agents is measured by their average budget growth after a certain number of time steps. We present results of extensive computer simulations, which show that, for our given artificial environment, (i) the risk-seeking strategy outperforms the risk-avoiding one, and (ii) the genetic algorithm was able to find this optimal strategy itself, and thus outperforms other prediction approaches considered.

Magnetic, geochemical characterization and health risk assessment of road dust in Xuanwei and Fuyuan, China.

PubMed

Tan, Zhengying; Lu, Senlin; Zhao, Hui; Kai, Xiao; Jiaxian, Peng; Win, Myat Sandar; Yu, Shang; Yonemochi, Shinich; Wang, Qingyue

2018-01-19

As an accumulation of solid organic and inorganic pollutant particles on outdoor ground surfaces, road dust is an important carrier of heavy metal contaminants and can be a valuable medium for characterizing urban environmental quality. Because the dusts can be an important source of atmospheric particles and take impact on human health, the aim of this study described in detail the mineralogical characteristics, morphology, and heavy metal content of road dust from Xuanwei and Fuyuan, locations with high lung cancer incidence. Our results show that the average concentrations of heavy metals in road dust were higher than their background values. Higher concentrations of heavy metals were found in the magnetic fractions (MFs) than in the non-magnetic fractions (NMFs). Magnetic measurements revealed high magnetic susceptibility values in the road dust samples, and the dominant magnetic carrier was magnetite. The magnetic grains were predominantly pseudo-single domain, multi-domain, and coarse-grained stable single domains (coarse SSD) in size. SEM/XRD analysis identified two groups of magnetic particles: spherules and angular/aggregate particles. Hazard index (HI) values for adults exposure to road dust samples, including MF, Bulk, and NMF, in both areas were lower or close to safe levels, while HI values for childhood exposure to magnetic fractions in both areas were very close or higher than safe levels. Cancer risks from road dust exposure in both areas were in the acceptable value range.

Managing Research in a Risk World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.

2014-01-01

The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.

Range-Finding Risk Assessment of Inhalation Exposure to Nanodiamonds in a Laboratory Environment

PubMed Central

Koivisto, Antti J.; Palomäki, Jaana E.; Viitanen, Anna-Kaisa; Siivola, Kirsi M.; Koponen, Ismo K.; Yu, Mingzhou; Kanerva, Tomi S.; Norppa, Hannu; Alenius, Harri T.; Hussein, Tareq; Savolainen, Kai M.; Hämeri, Kaarle J.

2014-01-01

This study considers fundamental methods in occupational risk assessment of exposure to airborne engineered nanomaterials. We discuss characterization of particle emissions, exposure assessment, hazard assessment with in vitro studies, and risk range characterization using calculated inhaled doses and dose-response translated to humans from in vitro studies. Here, the methods were utilized to assess workers’ risk range of inhalation exposure to nanodiamonds (NDs) during handling and sieving of ND powder. NDs were agglomerated to over 500 nm particles, and mean exposure levels of different work tasks varied from 0.24 to 4.96 µg·m−3 (0.08 to 0.74 cm−3). In vitro-experiments suggested that ND exposure may cause a risk for activation of inflammatory cascade. However, risk range characterization based on in vitro dose-response was not performed because accurate assessment of delivered (settled) dose on the cells was not possible. Comparison of ND exposure with common pollutants revealed that ND exposure was below 5 μg·m−3, which is one of the proposed exposure limits for diesel particulate matter, and the workers’ calculated dose of NDs during the measurement day was 74 ng which corresponded to 0.02% of the modeled daily (24 h) dose of submicrometer urban air particles. PMID:24840353

Risk Assessment Training Experience (RATE) – University of Iowa Superfund Research Center.

EPA Science Inventory

These modules will offer hands-on training in the primary areas of risk assessment (i.e., legal background, hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) at the University of Iowa Superfund Research Program on October 2, 2017. An...

Neurobehavioral epidemiology: application in risk assessment.

PubMed Central

Grandjean, P; White, R F; Weihe, P

1996-01-01

Neurobehavioral epidemiology may contribute information to risk assessment in relation to a) characterization of neurotoxicity and its time course; b) the dose-effect relationship; c) the dose-response relationship; and d) predisposing factors. The quality of this information relies on the validity of the exposure data, the validity and sensitivity of neurobehavioral function tests, and the degree to which sources of bias are controlled. With epidemiologic studies of methylmercury-associated neurotoxicity as an example, the field of research involves numerous uncertainties that should be taken into account in the risk assessment process. PMID:9182047

Guatemalan potato moth Tecia solanivora distinguish odour profiles from qualitatively different potatoes Solanum tuberosum L.

PubMed

Karlsson, Miriam Frida; Birgersson, Göran; Witzgall, Peter; Lekfeldt, Jonas Duus Stevens; Nimal Punyasiri, P A; Bengtsson, Marie

2013-01-01

Guatemalan potato moth, Tecia solanivora, lay eggs in the soil nearby potato Solanum spp. and larvae feed on the tubers. We investigated the oviposition behaviour of T. solanivora females and the survival of larval offspring on healthy vs. stressed, i.e. light exposed and/or damaged potato tubers. In choice tests, females laid significantly more eggs in response to potato odour of healthy tubers and female oviposition preference correlated with higher larval survival. Survival of larvae was negatively correlated with the tuber content of the steroid glycoalkaloids α-solanine and α-chaconine: healthy potatoes contained lower amounts than stressed tubers, ranging from 25 to 500 μg g⁻¹ and from 30 to 600 μg g⁻¹, respectively. Analysis of volatile compounds emitted by potato tubers revealed that stressed tubers could clearly be distinguished from healthy tubers by the composition of their volatile profiles. Compounds that contributed to this difference were e.g. decanal, nonanal, isopropyl myristate, phenylacetaldehyde, benzothiazole, heptadecane, octadecane, myristicin, E,E-α-farnesene and verbenone. Oviposition assays, when female moths were not in contact with the tubers, clearly demonstrated that volatiles guide the females to lay fewer eggs on stressed tubers that are of inferior quality for the larvae. We propose that volatiles, such as sesquiterpenes and aldehydes, mediate oviposition behaviour and are correlated with biosynthetically related, non-volatile compounds, such as steroidal glycoalkaloids, which influence larval survival. We conclude that the oviposition response and larval survival of T. solanivora on healthy vs. stressed tubers supports the preference performance hypothesis for insect herbivores. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of HPV infection in women at risk in Western Algeria.

PubMed

Masdoua, N; Boublenza, L; Hassaine, H; Ngou, J; Nahet, A; Segondy, M; Razik, F; Regagba, D; Sadouki, N; Mouhammedi, D

2017-02-01

We aimed to characterize HPV infections and cervical lesions in Western Algeria. A total of 96 cervical samples obtained from women at risk of HPV infection (HIV-1-infected or presenting with a gynecological disease) were analyzed to characterize this infection and search for cytological abnormalities. A total of 60% of women at risk had an HPV infection. The rate of high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) infection among these women was 84.5% and that of intraepithelial lesions was 29.3%. The frequency of HPV infection was significantly higher among HIV-1-infected patients. An association between the presence of HR-HPV and the polygamy of the partner was observed. An association between cytological abnormalities and the use of oral contraceptives was observed among HIV-1-infected women. Given the high frequency of HPV infection in this at risk population, close monitoring and regular gynecological screening are essential. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

Goal-oriented Site Characterization in Hydrogeological Applications: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, W.; de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.

2011-12-01

In this study, we address the importance of goal-oriented site characterization. Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in hydrogeological applications, information needs of modeling, prediction and decision support should be satisfied with efficient and rational field campaigns. In this work, we provide an overview of an optimal sampling design framework based on Bayesian decision theory, statistical parameter inference and Bayesian model averaging. It optimizes the field sampling campaign around decisions on environmental performance metrics (e.g., risk, arrival times, etc.) while accounting for parametric and model uncertainty in the geostatistical characterization, in forcing terms, and measurement error. The appealing aspects of the framework lie on its goal-oriented character and that it is directly linked to the confidence in a specified decision. We illustrate how these concepts could be applied in a human health risk problem where uncertainty from both hydrogeological and health parameters are accounted.

The neural basis of financial risk taking.

PubMed

Kuhnen, Camelia M; Knutson, Brian

2005-09-01

Investors systematically deviate from rationality when making financial decisions, yet the mechanisms responsible for these deviations have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI, we examined whether anticipatory neural activity would predict optimal and suboptimal choices in a financial decision-making task. We characterized two types of deviations from the optimal investment strategy of a rational risk-neutral agent as risk-seeking mistakes and risk-aversion mistakes. Nucleus accumbens activation preceded risky choices as well as risk-seeking mistakes, while anterior insula activation preceded riskless choices as well as risk-aversion mistakes. These findings suggest that distinct neural circuits linked to anticipatory affect promote different types of financial choices and indicate that excessive activation of these circuits may lead to investing mistakes. Thus, consideration of anticipatory neural mechanisms may add predictive power to the rational actor model of economic decision making.

Health-risk based approach to setting drinking water standards for long-term space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macler, Bruce A.; Dunsky, Elizabeth C.

1992-01-01

In order to develop plausible and appropriate drinking water contaminant standards for longer-term NASA space missions, such as those planned for the Space Exploration Initiative, a human health risk characterization was performed using toxicological and exposure values typical of space operations and crew. This risk characterization showed that the greatest acute waterborne health concern was from microbial infection leading to incapacitating gastrointestinal illness. Ingestion exposure pathways for toxic materials yielded de minimus acute health risks unlikely to affect SEI space missions. Risks of chronic health problems were within acceptable public health limits. Our analysis indicates that current Space Station Freedom maximum contamination levels may be unnecessarily strict. We propose alternative environmental contaminant values consistent with both acceptable short and long-term crew health safety.

Risk Assessment Considerations for Veterinary Medicines in Aquatic Ecosystems

EPA Science Inventory

This chapter provides a critical evaluation of prospective and retrospective risk assessment approaches for veterinary medicines in aquatic ecosystems and provides recommendations for possible alternative approaches for hazard characterization.

Characterizing cardiovascular risk in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: more than the sum of its parts?

PubMed

Chang, Alice Y; Wild, Robert A

2009-07-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a condition of irregular menses and androgen excess, is the most common endocrinopathy of young women. Insulin resistance is a well-established feature among many women with PCOS, even in the nonobese. Therefore, it is not surprising that PCOS is frequently associated with cardiovascular risk factors and the metabolic syndrome. However, it is not known whether PCOS is an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular (CV) events or whether CV risk is attributable to associated risk factors. We review previous studies on CV risk and disease in women with PCOS, describing the pitfalls and challenges in ascribing CV risk to PCOS. Women with PCOS might be partly reassured that their relative risk approximates that of the metabolic syndrome (RR 1.5) and also strongly counseled at the individual level about the greatest potential threat to their CV health, the development of type 2 diabetes.

Import Security: Assessing the Risks of Imported Food.

PubMed

Welburn, Jonathan; Bier, Vicki; Hoerning, Steven

2016-11-01

We use data on food import violations from the FDA Operational and Administrative System for Import Support (OASIS) to address rising concerns associated with imported food, quantify import risks by product and by country of origin, and explore the usefulness of OASIS data for risk assessment. In particular, we assess whether there are significant trends in violations, whether import violations can be used to quantify risks by country and by product, and how import risks depend on economic factors of the country of origin. The results show that normalizing import violations by volume of imports provides a meaningful indicator of risk. We then use regression analysis to characterize import risks.  Using this model, we analyze import risks by product type, violation type, and economic factors of the country of origin.  We find that OASIS data are useful in quantifying food import risks, and that the rate of refusals provides a useful decision tool for risk management.  Furthermore, we find that some economic factors are significant indicators of food import risk by country. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications.

PubMed

Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

2006-09-20

To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and the cardiovascular risk is low.

Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications

PubMed Central

Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

2006-01-01

Background To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. Methods To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Results Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. Conclusion In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Natural and Processed Cheeses

PubMed Central

Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Lee, Jeeyeon; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Yohan

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309)×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness

Risk Factors for Complications of Traumatic Injuries.

PubMed

de Aguiar Júnior, Wagner; Saleh, Carmen Mohamad Rida; Whitaker, Iveth Yamaguchi

2016-01-01

Complications in hospitalized trauma patients are major causes of morbidity and mortality. The aims of this study were to identify the in-hospital trauma patients' complications and identify the risk factors for complications in this population. A retrospective analysis was conducted in a sample from a Brazilian hospital. The sample consisted of 407 patients, 194 (47.66%) of whom had records of complications. The most common complications were infections (41.80%). The risk factors related to the complications were age, length of hospital stay, external causes, and injury severity. The complications were frequent in this sample, and the risk for complications was characterized by multiple factors.

MODELING APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL RISK AESSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Irem Y.; Barrientos, Francesca; Meshkat, Leila

2004-01-01

This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

PubMed

Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

2009-05-10

Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

Characterization of a normal control group: are they healthy?

PubMed

Aine, C J; Sanfratello, L; Adair, J C; Knoefel, J E; Qualls, C; Lundy, S L; Caprihan, A; Stone, D; Stephen, J M

2014-01-01

We examined the health of a control group (18-81years) in our aging study, which is similar to control groups used in other neuroimaging studies. The current study was motivated by our previous results showing that one third of the elder control group had moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities and/or cortical volume loss which correlated with poor performance on memory tasks. Therefore, we predicted that cardiovascular risk factors (e.g., hypertension, high cholesterol) within the control group would account for significant variance on working memory task performance. Fifty-five participants completed 4 verbal and spatial working memory tasks, neuropsychological exams, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and blood tests to assess vascular risk. In addition to using a repeated measures ANOVA design, a cluster analysis was applied to the vascular risk measures as a data reduction step to characterize relationships between conjoint risk factors. The cluster groupings were used to predict working memory performance. The results show that higher levels of systolic blood pressure were associated with: 1) poor spatial working memory accuracy; and 2) lower fractional anisotropy (FA) values in multiple brain regions. In contrast, higher levels of total cholesterol corresponded with increased accuracy in verbal working memory. An association between lower FA values and higher cholesterol levels were identified in different brain regions from those associated with systolic blood pressure. The conjoint risk analysis revealed that Risk Cluster Group 3 (the group with the greatest number of risk factors) displayed: 1) the poorest performance on the spatial working memory tasks; 2) the longest reaction times across both spatial and verbal memory tasks; and 3) the lowest FA values across widespread brain regions. Our results confirm that a considerable range of vascular risk factors are present in a typical control group, even in younger individuals, which have robust

Evaluating uncertainty to strengthen epidemiologic data for use in human health risk assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Background: There is a recognized need to improve the application of epidemiologic data in human health risk assessment especially for understanding and characterizing risks from environmental and occupational exposures. While most epidemiologic studies result in uncertainty, tec...

Antibiotic Action of Solanum incanum Linnaeus

PubMed Central

Beaman-Mbaya, V.; Muhammed, S. I.

1976-01-01

The fruits of Solanum incanum Linnaeus are extensively used in Kenya for the treatment of cutaneous mycotic infections and other pathological conditions. The therapeutic activity of the berries has been attributed to their content of solanine and related glycoalkaloids, which are saponins and cytostatic poisons. In the present study, however, a simpler more potent antimicrobial substance with a phosphorylated structure similar to the purine adenine was isolated from the berries. The crystals of this compound were effective inhibitors of the growth of gram-positive and -negative bacteria, yeasts, dermatophytes, and some pathogens of agricultural produce. High concentrations of the substance caused hemolysis of erythrocytes. Images PMID:945715

Blotting Assisted by Heating and Solvent Extraction for DESI-MS Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabral, Elaine C.; Mirabelli, Mario F.; Perez, Consuelo J.; Ifa, Demian R.

2013-06-01

Imprints of potato sprout ( Solanum tuberosum L.), gingko leaves (Gingko biloba L. ) and strawberries (Fragaria x ananassa Duch. ) were successfully imaged by desorption electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (DESI-MS) on TLC plates through blotting assisted by heating and/or solvent extraction. Ion images showing the distribution of significant compounds such as glycoalkaloid toxins in potato sprout, ginkgolic acids and flavonoids in ginkgo leaves, and sugars and anthocyanidin in strawberry were obtained. Practical implications of this work include analysis of a wide range of irregular or soft materials by different imprinting conditions without requiring the addition of matrices or use of specific kinds of surfaces.

Use of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) for improving the accuracy of the risk classification of type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Mahon, Jeffrey; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Greenbaum, Carla J; Rafkin, Lisa E; Beam, Craig A; Boulware, David C; Matheson, Della; Cuthbertson, David; Herold, Kevan C; Eisenbarth, George; Palmer, Jerry P

2014-04-01

OBJECTIVE We studied the utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) for improving the accuracy of type 1 diabetes (T1D) risk classification in TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS) participants. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The cumulative incidence of T1D was compared between normoglycemic individuals with DPTRS values >7.00 and dysglycemic individuals in the TNNHS (n = 991). It was also compared between individuals with DPTRS values <7.00 or >7.00 among those with dysglycemia and those with multiple autoantibodies in the TNNHS. DPTRS values >7.00 were compared with dysglycemia for characterizing risk in Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) (n = 670) and TNNHS participants. The reliability of DPTRS values >7.00 was compared with dysglycemia in the TNNHS. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of T1D for normoglycemic TNNHS participants with DPTRS values >7.00 was comparable to those with dysglycemia. Among those with dysglycemia, the cumulative incidence was much higher (P < 0.001) for those with DPTRS values >7.00 than for those with values <7.00 (3-year risks: 0.16 for <7.00 and 0.46 for >7.00). Dysglycemic individuals in DPT-1 were at much higher risk for T1D than those with dysglycemia in the TNNHS (P < 0.001); there was no significant difference in risk between the studies among those with DPTRS values >7.00. The proportion in the TNNHS reverting from dysglycemia to normoglycemia at the next visit was higher than the proportion reverting from DPTRS values >7.00 to values <7.00 (36 vs. 23%). CONCLUSIONS DPTRS thresholds can improve T1D risk classification accuracy by identifying high-risk normoglycemic and low-risk dysglycemic individuals. The 7.00 DPTRS threshold characterizes risk more consistently between populations and has greater reliability than dysglycemia.

Skin-Based DNA Repair Phenotype for Cancer Risk from GCR in Genetically Diverse Populations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guiet, Elodie; Viger, Louise; Snijders, Antoine; Costes, Sylvian V.

2017-01-01

Predicting cancer risk associated with cosmic radiation remains a mission-critical challenge for NASA radiation health scientists and mission planners. Epidemiological data are lacking and risk methods do not take individual radiation sensitivity into account. In our approach we hypothesize that genetic factors strongly influence risk of cancer from space radiation and that biomarkers reflecting DNA damage and cell death are ideal tools to predict risk and monitor potential health effects post-flight. At this workshop, we will be reporting the work we have done over the first 9 months of this proposal. Skin cells from 15 different strains of mice already characterized for radiation-induced cancer sensitivity (B6C3F; BALB/cByJ, C57BL/6J, CBA/CaJ, C3H/HeMsNrsf), and 10 strains from the DOE collaborative cross-mouse model were expanded from ear biopsy and cultivated until Passage 3. On average, 3 males and 3 females for each strain were expanded and frozen for further characterization at the NSRL beam line during the NSRL16C run for three LET (350 MeV/n Si, 350 MeV/n Ar and 600 MeV/n Fe) and two ion fluences (1 and 3 particles per cell). The mice work has established new metrics for the usage of Radiation Induced Foci as a marker for various aspect of DNA repair deficiencies. In year 2, we propose to continue characterization of the mouse lines with low LET to identify loci specific to high- versus low- LET and establish genetic linkage for the various DNA repair biomarkers. Correlation with cancer risk from each animals strain and gender will also be investigated. On the human side, we will start characterizing the DNA damage response induced ex-vivo in 200 human's blood donors for radiation sensitivity with a tentative 500 donors by the end of this project. All ex-vivo phenotypic data will be correlated to genetic characterization of each individual human donors using SNP arrays characterization as done for mice. Similarly, ex-vivo phenotypic features from mice will

Hazard Characterization of Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Vector: What Are the Knowledge Gaps?

PubMed Central

Okeke, Malachy I.; Okoli, Arinze S.; Offor, Collins; Oludotun, Taiwo G.; Tryland, Morten; Bøhn, Thomas; Moens, Ugo

2017-01-01

Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) is the vector of choice for human and veterinary applications due to its strong safety profile and immunogenicity in vivo. The use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines against human and animal diseases must comply with regulatory requirements as they pertain to environmental risk assessment, particularly the characterization of potential adverse effects to humans, animals and the environment. MVA and recombinant MVA are widely believed to pose low or negligible risk to ecosystem health. However, key aspects of MVA biology require further research in order to provide data needed to evaluate the potential risks that may occur due to the use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines. The purpose of this paper is to identify knowledge gaps in the biology of MVA and recombinant MVA that are of relevance to its hazard characterization and discuss ongoing and future experiments aimed at providing data necessary to fill in the knowledge gaps. In addition, we presented arguments for the inclusion of uncertainty analysis and experimental investigation of verifiable worst-case scenarios in the environmental risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA. These will contribute to improved risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA vaccines. PMID:29109380

Hazard Characterization of Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Vector: What Are the Knowledge Gaps?

PubMed

Okeke, Malachy I; Okoli, Arinze S; Diaz, Diana; Offor, Collins; Oludotun, Taiwo G; Tryland, Morten; Bøhn, Thomas; Moens, Ugo

2017-10-29

Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) is the vector of choice for human and veterinary applications due to its strong safety profile and immunogenicity in vivo. The use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines against human and animal diseases must comply with regulatory requirements as they pertain to environmental risk assessment, particularly the characterization of potential adverse effects to humans, animals and the environment. MVA and recombinant MVA are widely believed to pose low or negligible risk to ecosystem health. However, key aspects of MVA biology require further research in order to provide data needed to evaluate the potential risks that may occur due to the use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines. The purpose of this paper is to identify knowledge gaps in the biology of MVA and recombinant MVA that are of relevance to its hazard characterization and discuss ongoing and future experiments aimed at providing data necessary to fill in the knowledge gaps. In addition, we presented arguments for the inclusion of uncertainty analysis and experimental investigation of verifiable worst-case scenarios in the environmental risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA. These will contribute to improved risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA vaccines.

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

[Risk factors for developing tuberculosis].

PubMed

Skodrić-Trifunović, Vesna

2004-01-01

Application of modern achievements in the field of medicine such as organ transplantation, long-term immunosuppressive therapy in treatment of numerous diseases, dialysis, successful treatment of malignant diseases prolonged duration of life and consequential continuation of long-term immunodeficiency. HIV infection currently represents a major risk factor for reactivation of tuberculosis with its associated relative risk being 30-170 times higher in comparison to the control group, in regard to the number of CD4 T-lymphocytes. Malignant diseases (hematological, lung and breast carcinomas) are important immunocompromising conditions affecting reactivation of tuberculosis, whereas the relative risk is 16. Development of tuberculosis among diabetics is considerably more frequent in comparison to general population (relative risk 2-4). Prominent glycoregulation disorders point to greater liability to development of tuberculosis. Alcoholism is characterized by general reduction of resistance, resulting from alcohol intoxication, malnutrition, irregular life style, etc. In malabsorption, immunosuppression is induced by deficiency of nutritive components and thus, relative risk for reactivation of tuberculosis is 5-12 in gastrectomy and 27-63 in jejunoileal bypass. In patients with chronic renal failur the relative risk ranges from 10 (nephropathies) to 37 (transplantation). Numerous patients use long-term immunosuppressive therapy that contributes to increased risk for developing tuberculosis (relative risk 12) as early as one month after application of a dose above 15 mg/day. There are numerous of risk factors that have frequently combined effects responsible for immunologic imbalance and development of tuberculosis.

Risk Balance: A Key Tool for Mission Operations Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryant, Larry W.; Faris, Grant B.

2011-01-01

The Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) discipline actively participates as a project member to achieve their common objective of full mission success while also providing an independent risk assessment to the Project Manager and Office of Safety and Mission Success staff. The cornerstone element of MOA is the independent assessment of the risks the project faces in executing its mission. Especially as the project approaches critical mission events, it becomes imperative to clearly identify and assess the risks the project faces. Quite often there are competing options for the project to select from in deciding how to execute the event. An example includes choices between proven but aging hardware components and unused but unproven components. Timing of the event with respect to visual or telecommunications visibility can be a consideration in the case of Earth reentry or hazardous maneuver events. It is in such situations that MOA is called upon for a risk balance assessment or risk trade study to support their recommendation to the Project Manager for a specific option to select. In the following paragraphs we consider two such assessments, one for the Stardust capsule Earth return and the other for the choice of telecommunications system configuration for the EPOXI flyby of the comet Hartley 2. We discuss the development of the trade space for each project's scenario and characterize the risks of each possible option. The risk characterization we consider includes a determination of the severity or consequence of each risk if realized and the likelihood of its occurrence. We then examine the assessment process to arrive at a MOA recommendation. Finally we review each flight project's decision process and the outcome of their decisions.

Equipment characterization to mitigate risks during transfers of cell culture manufacturing processes.

PubMed

Sieblist, Christian; Jenzsch, Marco; Pohlscheidt, Michael

2016-08-01

The production of monoclonal antibodies by mammalian cell culture in bioreactors up to 25,000 L is state of the art technology in the biotech industry. During the lifecycle of a product, several scale up activities and technology transfers are typically executed to enable the supply chain strategy of a global pharmaceutical company. Given the sensitivity of mammalian cells to physicochemical culture conditions, process and equipment knowledge are critical to avoid impacts on timelines, product quantity and quality. Especially, the fluid dynamics of large scale bioreactors versus small scale models need to be described, and similarity demonstrated, in light of the Quality by Design approach promoted by the FDA. This approach comprises an associated design space which is established during process characterization and validation in bench scale bioreactors. Therefore the establishment of predictive models and simulation tools for major operating conditions of stirred vessels (mixing, mass transfer, and shear force.), based on fundamental engineering principles, have experienced a renaissance in the recent years. This work illustrates the systematic characterization of a large variety of bioreactor designs deployed in a global manufacturing network ranging from small bench scale equipment to large scale production equipment (25,000 L). Several traditional methods to determine power input, mixing, mass transfer and shear force have been used to create a data base and identify differences for various impeller types and configurations in operating ranges typically applied in cell culture processes at manufacturing scale. In addition, extrapolation of different empirical models, e.g. Cooke et al. (Paper presented at the proceedings of the 2nd international conference of bioreactor fluid dynamics, Cranfield, UK, 1988), have been assessed for their validity in these operational ranges. Results for selected designs are shown and serve as examples of structured

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data

Evaluation of different radon guideline values based on characterization of ecological risk and visualization of lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Branion-Calles, Michael C; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Henderson, Sarah B

2015-11-19

There is no safe concentration of radon gas, but guideline values provide threshold concentrations that are used to map areas at higher risk. These values vary between different regions, countries, and organizations, which can lead to differential classification of risk. For example the World Health Organization suggests a 100 Bq m(-3)value, while Health Canada recommends 200 Bq m(-3). Our objective was to describe how different thresholds characterized ecological radon risk and their visual association with lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada. Eight threshold values between 50 and 600 Bq m(-3) were identified, and classes of radon vulnerability were defined based on whether the observed 95(th) percentile radon concentration was above or below each value. A balanced random forest algorithm was used to model vulnerability, and the results were mapped. We compared high vulnerability areas, their estimated populations, and differences in lung cancer mortality trends stratified by smoking prevalence and sex. Classification accuracy improved as the threshold concentrations decreased and the area classified as high vulnerability increased. Majority of the population lived within areas of lower vulnerability regardless of the threshold value. Thresholds as low as 50 Bq m(-3) were associated with higher lung cancer mortality, even in areas with low smoking prevalence. Temporal trends in lung cancer mortality were increasing for women, while decreasing for men. Radon contributes to lung cancer in British Columbia. The results of the study contribute evidence supporting the use of a reference level lower than the current guideline of 200 Bq m(-3) for the province.

[Biological evaluation within a risk management process].

PubMed

Zhuang, Fei; Ding, Biao

2007-07-01

Bio-evaluation within the medical device quality/risk management system is a risk analyzing and assessing process. On the basis of data from characterization of materials, scientific literatures, application history, bio-toxicology testing and so on, weighing the benefit and the risk, bio-evaluation does a conclusion to "take" or "quit" the product design. There is no "zero risk" though "no toxicity" always is the most desirable conclusion in a testing report. The application history data is the most comprehensive among the information available, since no testing system can "clone" the human body. In addition, the capital cost has to be taken into account when bringing the sophisticated testing technologies into the evaluating system. Investigating the #G95-1 of FDA CDRH and the changes of ISO 10993-1, the trend to integrate bio-evaluation into a quality/risk management process can be figured out.

Informatics approaches in the Biological Characterization of Adverse Outcome Pathways

EPA Science Inventory

Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) are a conceptual framework to characterize toxicity pathways by a series of mechanistic steps from a molecular initiating event to population outcomes. This framework helps to direct risk assessment research, for example by aiding in computational ...

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: An assessment of the risk to Douglas commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schjelderup, H. C.; Cook, C. Q.; Snyder, E.; Henning, B.; Hosford, J.; Gilles, D. L.; Swanstrom, C. W.

1980-01-01

The potential hazard to electrical and electronic devices should there be a release of free carbon fibers due to an aircraft crash and fire was assessed. Exposure and equipment sensitivity data were compiled for a risk analysis. Results are presented in the following areas: DC-9/DC-10 electrical/electronic component characterization; DC-9 and DC-10 fiber transfer functions; potential for transport aircraft equipment exposure to carbon fibers; and equipment vulnerability assessment. Results reflect only a negligible increase in risk for the DC-9 and DC-10 fleets either now or projected to 1993.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE PAGES

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

2017-07-21

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

QUANTITATION OF MOLECULAR ENDPOINTS FOR THE DOSE-RESPONSE COMPONENT OF CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Cancer risk assessment involves the steps of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The rapid advances in the use of molecular biology approaches has had an impact on all four components, but the greatest overall current...

A Risk-Based Characterization of Sediment Contamination by Legacy and Emergent Contaminants of Concern in Coastal British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Morales-Caselles, Carmen; Desforges, Jean-Pierre W; Dangerfield, Neil; Ross, Peter S

2017-08-01

Sediments have long been used to help describe pollution sources, contaminated sites, trends over time, and habitat quality for marine life. We collected surficial sediments from 12 sites at an average seawater depth of 25 m in three near-urban areas of the Salish Sea (British Columbia, Canada) to investigate habitat quality for marine life, including heavily contaminated killer whales. Samples were analyzed using high-resolution instrumentation for a wide variety of congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD), polybrominated biphenyls, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans, organochlorine pesticides, and polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs). The top six contaminant classes detected in sediments were ∑PCB > ∑PBDE > ∑PCDD/F > DDT > ∑HBCDD > ∑PCN. Near-urban harbor sediments had up to three orders of magnitude higher concentrations of contaminants than more remote sites. With limited tools available to characterize biological risks associated with complex mixtures in the real world, we applied several available approaches to prioritize the pollutant found in our study: (1) sediment quality guidelines from the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment where available; (2) US NOAA effects range low and other international guidelines; (3) total TEQ for dioxin-like PCBs for the protection of mammals; and (4) the calculation of risk quotients. Our findings provide an indication of the state of contamination of coastal environments in British Columbia and guidance for chemical regulations and priority setting, as well as management actions including best-practices, dredging, disposal at sea, and source control. In this regard, the legacy PCB and the emergent PBDEs should command continued priority monitoring.

Pathology of wildfire risk: A characterization of social and ecological dimensions

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer; Thomas A Spies; Toddi A Steelman; Cassandra Moseley; Bart R Johnson; John D Bailey; Alan A Ager; Patrick Bourgeron; Susan Charnley; Brandon M Collins; Jeffrey D Kline; Jessica E Leahy; Jeremy S Littell; James DA Millington; Max Nielsen-Pincus; Christine S Olsen; Travis B Paveglio; Christopher I Roos; Michelle M Steen-Adams; Forrest R Stevens; Jelena Vukomanovic; Eric M White; David M. J. S. Bowman

2016-01-01

Despite dramatic increases in suppression spending, the risk of life and property loss associated with wildfire has continued to rise in recent decades. Economic losses from wildfires have doubled in the United States and suppression expenses have tripled between 2002 and 2012 compared to the decade prior. Loss of property to wildfire has outpaced efforts to reduce...

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Competing Uses of Underground Systems Related to Energy Supply: Applying Single- and Multiphase Simulations for Site Characterization and Risk-Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kissinger, A.; Walter, L.; Darcis, M.; Flemisch, B.; Class, H.

2012-04-01

Global climate change, shortage of resources and the resulting turn towards renewable sources of energy lead to a growing demand for the utilization of subsurface systems. Among these competing uses are Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), geothermal energy, nuclear waste disposal, "renewable" methane or hydrogen storage as well as the ongoing production of fossil resources like oil, gas, and coal. Besides competing among themselves, these technologies may also create conflicts with essential public interests like water supply. For example, the injection of CO2 into the underground causes an increase in pressure reaching far beyond the actual radius of influence of the CO2 plume, potentially leading to large amounts of displaced salt water. Finding suitable sites is a demanding task for several reasons. Natural systems as opposed to technical systems are always characterized by heterogeneity. Therefore, parameter uncertainty impedes reliable predictions towards capacity and safety of a site. State of the art numerical simulations combined with stochastic approaches need to be used to obtain a more reliable assessment of the involved risks and the radii of influence of the different processes. These simulations may include the modeling of single- and multiphase non-isothermal flow, geo-chemical and geo-mechanical processes in order to describe all relevant physical processes adequately. Stochastic approaches have the aim to estimate a bandwidth of the key output parameters based on uncertain input parameters. Risks for these different underground uses can then be made comparable with each other. Along with the importance and the urgency of the competing processes this may lead to a more profound basis for a decision. Communicating risks to stake holders and a concerned public is crucial for the success of finding a suitable site for CCS (or other subsurface utilization). We present and discuss first steps towards an approach for addressing the issue of competitive

Data informatics for the Detection, Characterization, and Attribution of Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; O'Brien, T. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Krishnan, H.; Johnson, J. N.; Prabhat, M.

2015-12-01

The potential for increasing frequency and intensity of extremephenomena including downpours, heat waves, and tropical cyclonesconstitutes one of the primary risks of climate change for society andthe environment. The challenge of characterizing these risks is thatextremes represent the "tails" of distributions of atmosphericphenomena and are, by definition, highly localized and typicallyrelatively transient. Therefore very large volumes of observationaldata and projections of future climate are required to quantify theirproperties in a robust manner. Massive data analytics are required inorder to detect individual extremes, accumulate statistics on theirproperties, quantify how these statistics are changing with time, andattribute the effects of anthropogenic global warming on thesestatistics. We describe examples of the suite of techniques the climate communityis developing to address these analytical challenges. The techniquesinclude massively parallel methods for detecting and trackingatmospheric rivers and cyclones; data-intensive extensions togeneralized extreme value theory to summarize the properties ofextremes; and multi-model ensembles of hindcasts to quantify theattributable risk of anthropogenic influence on individual extremes.We conclude by highlighting examples of these methods developed by ourCASCADE (Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, andDetection of Extremes) project.

Risk Based Reliability Centered Maintenance of DOD Fire Protection Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

2.2.3 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis ( FMEA )............................ 2.2.4 Failure Mode Risk Characterization...Step 2 - System functions and functional failures definition Step 3 - Failure mode and effect analysis ( FMEA ) Step 4 - Failure mode risk...system). The Interface Location column identifies the location where the FMEA of the fire protection system began or stopped. For example, for the fire

Risks and risk governance in unconventional shale gas development.

PubMed

Small, Mitchell J; Stern, Paul C; Bomberg, Elizabeth; Christopherson, Susan M; Goldstein, Bernard D; Israel, Andrei L; Jackson, Robert B; Krupnick, Alan; Mauter, Meagan S; Nash, Jennifer; North, D Warner; Olmstead, Sheila M; Prakash, Aseem; Rabe, Barry; Richardson, Nathan; Tierney, Susan; Webler, Thomas; Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Zielinska, Barbara

2014-01-01

A broad assessment is provided of the current state of knowledge regarding the risks associated with shale gas development and their governance. For the principal domains of risk, we identify observed and potential hazards and promising mitigation options to address them, characterizing current knowledge and research needs. Important unresolved research questions are identified for each area of risk; however, certain domains exhibit especially acute deficits of knowledge and attention, including integrated studies of public health, ecosystems, air quality, socioeconomic impacts on communities, and climate change. For these, current research and analysis are insufficient to either confirm or preclude important impacts. The rapidly evolving landscape of shale gas governance in the U.S. is also assessed, noting challenges and opportunities associated with the current decentralized (state-focused) system of regulation. We briefly review emerging approaches to shale gas governance in other nations, and consider new governance initiatives and options in the U.S. involving voluntary industry certification, comprehensive development plans, financial instruments, and possible future federal roles. In order to encompass the multiple relevant disciplines, address the complexities of the evolving shale gas system and reduce the many key uncertainties needed for improved management, a coordinated multiagency federal research effort will need to be implemented.

Genetic Risk Score for Essential Hypertension and Risk of Preeclampsia.

PubMed

Smith, Caitlin J; Saftlas, Audrey F; Spracklen, Cassandra N; Triche, Elizabeth W; Bjonnes, Andrew; Keating, Brendan; Saxena, Richa; Breheny, Patrick J; Dewan, Andrew T; Robinson, Jennifer G; Hoh, Josephine; Ryckman, Kelli K

2016-01-01

Preeclampsia is a hypertensive complication of pregnancy characterized by novel onset of hypertension after 20 weeks gestation, accompanied by proteinuria. Epidemiological evidence suggests that genetic susceptibility exists for preeclampsia; however, whether preeclampsia is the result of underlying genetic risk for essential hypertension has yet to be investigated. Based on the hypertensive state that is characteristic of preeclampsia, we aimed to determine if established genetic risk scores (GRSs) for hypertension and blood pressure are associated with preeclampsia. Subjects consisted of 162 preeclamptic cases and 108 normotensive pregnant controls, all of Iowa residence. Subjects' DNA was extracted from buccal swab samples and genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP Array 6.0 (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA). Missing genotypes were imputed using MaCH and Minimac software. GRSs were calculated for hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) using established genetic risk loci for each outcome. Regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GRS and risk of preeclampsia. These analyses were replicated in an independent US population of 516 cases and 1,097 controls of European ancestry. GRSs for hypertension, SBP, DBP, and MAP were not significantly associated with risk for preeclampsia (P > 0.189). The results of the replication analysis also yielded nonsignificant associations. GRSs for hypertension and blood pressure are not associated with preeclampsia, suggesting that an underlying predisposition to essential hypertension is not on the causal pathway of preeclampsia. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Characterizing Tumor Heterogeneity With Functional Imaging and Quantifying High-Risk Tumor Volume for Early Prediction of Treatment Outcome: Cervical Cancer as a Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayr, Nina A., E-mail: Nina.Mayr@osumc.edu; Huang Zhibin; Wang, Jian Z.

2012-07-01

Purpose: Treatment response in cancer has been monitored by measuring anatomic tumor volume (ATV) at various times without considering the inherent functional tumor heterogeneity known to critically influence ultimate treatment outcome: primary tumor control and survival. This study applied dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) functional MRI to characterize tumors' heterogeneous subregions with low DCE values, at risk for treatment failure, and to quantify the functional risk volume (FRV) for personalized early prediction of treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: DCE-MRI was performed in 102 stage IB{sub 2}-IVA cervical cancer patients to assess tumor perfusion heterogeneity before and during radiation/chemotherapy. FRV represents the totalmore » volume of tumor voxels with critically low DCE signal intensity (<2.1 compared with precontrast image, determined by previous receiver operator characteristic analysis). FRVs were correlated with treatment outcome (follow-up: 0.2-9.4, mean 6.8 years) and compared with ATVs (Mann-Whitney, Kaplan-Meier, and multivariate analyses). Results: Before and during therapy at 2-2.5 and 4-5 weeks of RT, FRVs >20, >13, and >5 cm{sup 3}, respectively, significantly predicted unfavorable 6-year primary tumor control (p = 0.003, 7.3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}, 2.0 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}) and disease-specific survival (p = 1.9 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -4}, 2.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -6}, 2.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7}, respectively). The FRVs were superior to the ATVs as early predictors of outcome, and the differentiating power of FRVs increased during treatment. Discussion: Our preliminary results suggest that functional tumor heterogeneity can be characterized by DCE-MRI to quantify FRV for predicting ultimate long-term treatment outcome. FRV is a novel functional imaging heterogeneity parameter, superior to ATV, and can be clinically translated for personalized early outcome prediction before or as early as 2

Characterization of thigh and shank segment angular velocity during jump landing tasks commonly used to evaluate risk for ACL injury.

PubMed

Dowling, Ariel V; Favre, Julien; Andriacchi, Thomas P

2012-09-01

The dynamic movements associated with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury during jump landing suggest that limb segment angular velocity can provide important information for understanding the conditions that lead to an injury. Angular velocity measures could provide a quick and simple method of assessing injury risk without the constraints of a laboratory. The objective of this study was to assess the inter-subject variations and the sensitivity of the thigh and shank segment angular velocity in order to determine if these measures could be used to characterize jump landing mechanisms. Additionally, this study tested the correlation between angular velocity and the knee abduction moment. Thirty-six healthy participants (18 male) performed drop jumps with bilateral and unilateral landing. Thigh and shank angular velocities were measured by a wearable inertial-based system, and external knee moments were measured using a marker-based system. Discrete parameters were extracted from the data and compared between systems. For both jumping tasks, the angular velocity curves were well defined movement patterns with high inter-subject similarity in the sagittal plane and moderate to good similarity in the coronal and transverse planes. The angular velocity parameters were also able to detect differences between the two jumping tasks that were consistent across subjects. Furthermore, the coronal angular velocities were significantly correlated with the knee abduction moment (R of 0.28-0.51), which is a strong indicator of ACL injury risk. This study suggested that the thigh and shank angular velocities, which describe the angular dynamics of the movement, should be considered in future studies about ACL injury mechanisms.

[Analysis on risk factors of screen time among Chinese primary and middle school students in 12 provinces].

PubMed

Wu, X Y; Tao, S M; Zhang, S C; Zhang, Y K; Huang, K; Tao, F B

2016-06-01

To investigate the characteristics of screen time and its risk factors in Chinese primary and middle school students. During April 2012 and June 2012, according to the geographical distribution, the stratified random cluster sampling method was used to select 4 provinces from eastern, central and western China, respectively. The convenience sampling method was used to select 2 primary and middle schools from urban, 2 primary and middle schools from rural in each province. In each school, all grades were included, and 2 classes were selected in each grade. A total of 51 866 students or parents were selected as study participants, and 43 771 questionnaires were valid. Information on demographics, academic performance, screen time (TV, computer and cellphone) at weekdays and weekends and the prevalence of the high screen time were compared, multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the association between screen time >2 h/d and potential influential factors. The percentage of students with screen time >2 h/d at weekdays and weekends were 16.2% (7 082/43 771) and 41.5% (18 141/43 771) (χ(2)=6 280.14, P<0.001), respectively. The distribution of P50 (P25-P75) for screen time at weekdays and weekends were 0.9(0.4-1.6) and 1.8(1.0-3.0) (Z=-131.26, P<0.001), respectively. The results of multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that, at weekdays, subjects characterized as primary school students, boys, urban area, living in western area and sufficient vigorous physical activity ≤2 d/w had higher risk for screen time >2 h/d than those characterized as elementary school students, girls, rural area, living in eastern area and sufficient vigorous physical activity >3 d/w, odds ratio were 2.01, 1.54, 1.21, 1.09, and 1.07, respectively (P<0.05 for all); subjects characterized as a normal or worse self rating academic performance had higher risk for screen time >2 h/d than those characterized as a good self rating academic performance, odds ratioes were 1

Shell-NASA Vibration-Based Damage Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rollins, John M.

2014-01-01

This article describes collaborative research between Shell International Exploration and Production (IE&P) scientists and ISAG personnel to investigate the feasibility of ultrasonic-based characterization of spacecraft tile damage for in-space inspection applications. The approach was proposed by Shell personnel in a Shell-NASA "speed-matching" session in early 2011 after ISAG personnel described challenges inherent in the inspection of MMOD damage deep within spacecraft thermal protection system (TPS) tiles. The approach leveraged Shell's relevant sensor and analytical expertise. The research addressed the difficulties associated with producing 3D models of MMOD damage cavities under the surface of a TPS tile, given that simple image-based sensing is constrained by line of sight through entry holes that have diameters considerably smaller than the underlying damage cavities. Damage cavity characterization is needed as part of a vehicle inspection and risk reduction capability for long-duration, human-flown space missions. It was hoped that cavity characterization could be accomplished through the use of ultrasonic techniques that allow for signal penetration through solid material.

Myth and Reality in Hydrogeological Site Characterization at DD and R Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rubin, Yoram

2008-01-15

The science of hydrogeological site characterization has made significant progress over the last twenty years. Progress has been made in modeling of flow and transport in the heterogeneous subsurface, in understanding of the complex patterns of geological heterogeneity and in measurement technologies. Modeling of uncertainty has also advanced significantly, in recognition of the inherent limitations of subsurface characterization. Much less progress has been made in transforming this progress into practice, where characterization is determined to a large extent by regulations. Environmental regulations have not progressed as much as the science, for example, in recognizing uncertainty. As such, practitioners are lessmore » inclined to adopt advanced, science-based solutions, this opening the door for myths and conflicts. Myths develop where the science base is perceived to be weak, whereas conflicts arise in the face of a disconnect between the science and the regulations. Myths translate to ad-hoc solutions and misplaced empiricism, as well as to unjustified reliance on field experience, to the detriment of D and DR. This paper explores the roots for this situation and identifies ideas that may help in bridging the gap between research and applications. A rational approach for DD and R is needed that will encourage innovation in site characterization, reduce costs and accelerate completion. Such an approach needs to include several elements. DD and R regulations need to recognize the various aspects of uncertainty inherent to site characterization, and as such, should be formulated using probabilistic concepts. One of the immediate benefits will be in allowing a gradual approach for data acquisition in DD and R sites: decisions can be made even under the most severe data limitations, and can be modified as additional data become available. The definition of risk is another major element. There is no universal definition of risk or of a methodology to define risk

Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

PubMed

Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

2016-12-01

Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models: State of the Science and Needs for Research and Implementation

EPA Science Inventory

Mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments can rely upon tissue dosimetry estimates in animals and humans obtained from physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. However, risk assessment also increasingly requires characterization of uncertainty and variabilit...

Gendered Risk Perceptions Associated with Human-Wildlife Conflict: Implications for Participatory Conservation

PubMed Central

Gore, Meredith L.; Kahler, Jessica S.

2012-01-01

This research aims to foster discourse about the extent to which gender is important to consider within the context of participatory approaches for biological conservation. Our objectives are to: (1) gender-disaggregate data about stakeholders' risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict (HWC) in a participatory conservation context, and (2) highlight insights from characterizing gendered similarities and differences in the way people think about HWC-related risks. Two communal conservancies in Caprivi, Namibia served as case study sites. We analyzed data from focus groups (n = 2) to create gendered concept maps about risks to wildlife and livelihoods and any associations of those risks with HWC, and semi-structured interviews (n = 76; men = 38, women = 38) to measure explicit risk attitudes associated with HWC. Concept maps indicated some divergent perceptions in how groups characterized risks to wildlife and livelihoods; however, not only were identified risks to wildlife (e.g., pollution, hunting) dissimilar in some instances, descriptions of risks varied as well. Study groups reported similar risk perceptions associated with HWC with the exception of worry associated with HWC effects on local livelihoods. Gendered differences in risk perceptions may signal different priorities or incentives to participate in efforts to resolve HWC-related risks. Thus, although shared goals and interests may seem to be an obvious reason for cooperative wildlife management, it is not always obvious that management goals are shared. Opportunity exists to move beyond thinking about gender as an explanatory variable for understanding how different groups think about participating in conservation activities. PMID:22403722

Gendered risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict: implications for participatory conservation.

PubMed

Gore, Meredith L; Kahler, Jessica S

2012-01-01

This research aims to foster discourse about the extent to which gender is important to consider within the context of participatory approaches for biological conservation. Our objectives are to: (1) gender-disaggregate data about stakeholders' risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict (HWC) in a participatory conservation context, and (2) highlight insights from characterizing gendered similarities and differences in the way people think about HWC-related risks. Two communal conservancies in Caprivi, Namibia served as case study sites. We analyzed data from focus groups (n = 2) to create gendered concept maps about risks to wildlife and livelihoods and any associations of those risks with HWC, and semi-structured interviews (n = 76; men = 38, women = 38) to measure explicit risk attitudes associated with HWC. Concept maps indicated some divergent perceptions in how groups characterized risks to wildlife and livelihoods; however, not only were identified risks to wildlife (e.g., pollution, hunting) dissimilar in some instances, descriptions of risks varied as well. Study groups reported similar risk perceptions associated with HWC with the exception of worry associated with HWC effects on local livelihoods. Gendered differences in risk perceptions may signal different priorities or incentives to participate in efforts to resolve HWC-related risks. Thus, although shared goals and interests may seem to be an obvious reason for cooperative wildlife management, it is not always obvious that management goals are shared. Opportunity exists to move beyond thinking about gender as an explanatory variable for understanding how different groups think about participating in conservation activities.

Real Time Radiation Exposure And Health Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Shaowen; Barzilla, Janet E.; Semones, Edward J.

2015-01-01

Radiation from solar particle events (SPEs) poses a serious threat to future manned missions outside of low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurate characterization of the radiation environment in the inner heliosphere and timely monitoring the health risks to crew are essential steps to ensure the safety of future Mars missions. In this project we plan to develop an approach that can use the particle data from multiple satellites and perform near real-time simulations of radiation exposure and health risks for various exposure scenarios. Time-course profiles of dose rates will be calculated with HZETRN and PDOSE from the energy spectrum and compositions of the particles archived from satellites, and will be validated from recent radiation exposure measurements in space. Real-time estimation of radiation risks will be investigated using ARRBOD. This cross discipline integrated approach can improve risk mitigation by providing critical information for risk assessment and medical guidance to crew during SPEs.

A Site Characterization Protocol for Evaluating the Potential for Triggered or Induced Seismicity Resulting from Wastewater Injection and Hydraulic Fracturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walters, R. J.; Zoback, M. D.; Gupta, A.; Baker, J.; Beroza, G. C.

2014-12-01

Regulatory and governmental agencies, individual companies and industry groups and others have recently proposed, or are developing, guidelines aimed at reducing the risk associated with earthquakes triggered by waste water injection or hydraulic fracturing. While there are a number of elements common to the guidelines proposed, not surprisingly, there are also some significant differences among them and, in a number of cases, important considerations that are not addressed. The goal of this work is to develop a comprehensive protocol for site characterization based on a rigorous scientific understanding of the responsible processes. Topics addressed will include the geologic setting (emphasizing faults that might be affected), historical seismicity, hydraulic characterization of injection and adjacent intervals, geomechanical characterization to identify potentially active faults, plans for seismic monitoring and reporting, plans for monitoring and reporting injection (pressure, volumes, and rates), other factors contributing to risk (potentially affected population centers, structures, and facilities), and implementing a modified Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The guidelines will be risk based and adaptable, rather than prescriptive, for a proposed activity and region of interest. They will be goal oriented and will rely, to the degree possible, on established best practice procedures, referring to existing procedures and recommendations. By developing a risk-based site characterization protocol, we hope to contribute to the development of rational and effective measures for reducing the risk posed by activities that potentially trigger earthquakes.

Comparison of 3 Methods for Identifying Dietary Patterns Associated With Risk of Disease

PubMed Central

DiBello, Julia R.; Kraft, Peter; McGarvey, Stephen T.; Goldberg, Robert; Campos, Hannia

2008-01-01

Reduced rank regression and partial least-squares regression (PLS) are proposed alternatives to principal component analysis (PCA). Using all 3 methods, the authors derived dietary patterns in Costa Rican data collected on 3,574 cases and controls in 1994–2004 and related the resulting patterns to risk of first incident myocardial infarction. Four dietary patterns associated with myocardial infarction were identified. Factor 1, characterized by high intakes of lean chicken, vegetables, fruit, and polyunsaturated oil, was generated by all 3 dietary pattern methods and was associated with a significantly decreased adjusted risk of myocardial infarction (28%–46%, depending on the method used). PCA and PLS also each yielded a pattern associated with a significantly decreased risk of myocardial infarction (31% and 23%, respectively); this pattern was characterized by moderate intake of alcohol and polyunsaturated oil and low intake of high-fat dairy products. The fourth factor derived from PCA was significantly associated with a 38% increased risk of myocardial infarction and was characterized by high intakes of coffee and palm oil. Contrary to previous studies, the authors found PCA and PLS to produce more patterns associated with cardiovascular disease than reduced rank regression. The most effective method for deriving dietary patterns related to disease may vary depending on the study goals. PMID:18945692

Alzheimer's disease prevention: from risk factors to early intervention.

PubMed

Crous-Bou, Marta; Minguillón, Carolina; Gramunt, Nina; Molinuevo, José Luis

2017-09-12

Due to the progressive aging of the population, Alzheimer's disease (AD) is becoming a healthcare burden of epidemic proportions for which there is currently no cure. Disappointing results from clinical trials performed in mild-moderate AD dementia combined with clear epidemiological evidence on AD risk factors are contributing to the development of primary prevention initiatives. In addition, the characterization of the long asymptomatic stage of AD is allowing the development of intervention studies and secondary prevention programmes on asymptomatic at-risk individuals, before substantial irreversible neuronal dysfunction and loss have occurred, an approach that emerges as highly relevant.In this manuscript, we review current strategies for AD prevention, from primary prevention strategies based on identifying risk factors and risk reduction, to secondary prevention initiatives based on the early detection of the pathophysiological hallmarks and intervention at the preclinical stage of the disease. Firstly, we summarize the evidence on several AD risk factors, which are the rationale for the establishment of primary prevention programmes as well as revising current primary prevention strategies. Secondly, we review the development of public-private partnerships for disease prevention that aim to characterize the AD continuum as well as serving as platforms for secondary prevention trials. Finally, we summarize currently ongoing clinical trials recruiting participants with preclinical AD or a higher risk for the onset of AD-related cognitive impairment.The growing body of research on the risk factors for AD and its preclinical stage is favouring the development of AD prevention programmes that, by delaying the onset of Alzheimer's dementia for only a few years, would have a huge impact on public health.

INTEGRATION OF PATHOLOGY AND TOXICOLOGY IN RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

In order to develop a scientifically defensible assessment of the risk for the development of cancer after long-term exposure to xenobiotics, regulatory agencies have adopted a uniform approach which includes the characterization of a carcinogenic mode of action and its biologica...

Automated landmarking and geometric characterization of the carotid siphon.

PubMed

Bogunović, Hrvoje; Pozo, José María; Cárdenes, Rubén; Villa-Uriol, María Cruz; Blanc, Raphaël; Piotin, Michel; Frangi, Alejandro F

2012-05-01

The geometry of the carotid siphon has a large variability between subjects, which has prompted its study as a potential geometric risk factor for the onset of vascular pathologies on and off the internal carotid artery (ICA). In this work, we present a methodology for an objective and extensive geometric characterization of carotid siphon parameterized by a set of anatomical landmarks. We introduce a complete and automated characterization pipeline. Starting from the segmentation of vasculature from angiographic image and its centerline extraction, we first identify ICA by characterizing vessel tree bifurcations and training a support vector machine classifier to detect ICA terminal bifurcation. On ICA centerline curve, we detect anatomical landmarks of carotid siphon by modeling it as a sequence of four bends and selecting their centers and interfaces between them. Bends are detected from the trajectory of the curvature vector expressed in the parallel transport frame of the curve. Finally, using the detected landmarks, we characterize the geometry in two complementary ways. First, with a set of local and global geometric features, known to affect hemodynamics. Second, using large deformation diffeomorphic metric curve mapping (LDDMCM) to quantify pairwise shape similarity. We processed 96 images acquired with 3D rotational angiography. ICA identification had a cross-validation success rate of 99%. Automated landmarking was validated by computing limits of agreement with the reference taken to be the locations of the manually placed landmarks averaged across multiple observers. For all but one landmark, either the bias was not statistically significant or the variability was within 50% of the inter-observer one. The subsequently computed values of geometric features and LDDMCM were commensurate to the ones obtained with manual landmarking. The characterization based on pair-wise LDDMCM proved better in classifying the carotid siphon shape classes than the one

Characterizing the performance of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson generalized linear model.

PubMed

Francis, Royce A; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Guikema, Seth D; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; LaRocca, Sarah

2012-01-01

Count data are pervasive in many areas of risk analysis; deaths, adverse health outcomes, infrastructure system failures, and traffic accidents are all recorded as count events, for example. Risk analysts often wish to estimate the probability distribution for the number of discrete events as part of doing a risk assessment. Traditional count data regression models of the type often used in risk assessment for this problem suffer from limitations due to the assumed variance structure. A more flexible model based on the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution was recently proposed, a model that has the potential to overcome the limitations of the traditional model. However, the statistical performance of this new model has not yet been fully characterized. This article assesses the performance of a maximum likelihood estimation method for fitting the COM-Poisson generalized linear model (GLM). The objectives of this article are to (1) characterize the parameter estimation accuracy of the MLE implementation of the COM-Poisson GLM, and (2) estimate the prediction accuracy of the COM-Poisson GLM using simulated data sets. The results of the study indicate that the COM-Poisson GLM is flexible enough to model under-, equi-, and overdispersed data sets with different sample mean values. The results also show that the COM-Poisson GLM yields accurate parameter estimates. The COM-Poisson GLM provides a promising and flexible approach for performing count data regression. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Functional dysconnectivity of corticostriatal circuitry as a risk phenotype for psychosis.

PubMed

Fornito, Alex; Harrison, Ben J; Goodby, Emmeline; Dean, Anna; Ooi, Cinly; Nathan, Pradeep J; Lennox, Belinda R; Jones, Peter B; Suckling, John; Bullmore, Edward T

2013-11-01

Dysregulation of corticostriatal circuitry has long been thought to be critical in the etiology of psychotic disorders, although the differential roles played by dorsal and ventral systems in mediating risk for psychosis have been contentious. To use resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging to characterize disease-related, risk-related, and symptom-related changes of corticostriatal functional circuitry in patients with first-episode psychosis and their unaffected first-degree relatives. This case-control cross-sectional study was conducted at a specialist early psychosis clinic, GlaxoSmithKline Clinical Unit, and magnetic resonance imaging facility. Nineteen patients with first-episode psychosis, 25 of their unaffected first-degree relatives, and 26 healthy control subjects were included in this study. Voxelwise statistical parametric maps testing differences in the strength of functional connectivity between 6 striatal seed regions of interest (3 caudate and 3 putamen) per hemisphere and all other brain regions. Disease-related changes, reflecting differences between patients and control subjects, involved widespread dysregulation of corticostriatal systems characterized most prominently by a dorsal-to-ventral gradient of hypoconnectivity to hyperconnectivity between striatal and prefrontal regions. A similar gradient was evident in comparisons between relatives and control subjects, identifying it as a genetically inherited risk phenotype. In patients, functional connectivity in risk-affected and disease-affected dorsal frontostriatal circuitry correlated with the severity of both positive and negative symptoms. First-episode psychosis is associated with pronounced dysregulation of corticostriatal systems, characterized most prominently by hypoconnectivity of dorsal and hyperconnectivity of ventral frontostriatal circuits. These changes correlate with symptom severity and are also apparent in unaffected first-degree relatives, suggesting that they

An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2018-05-01

To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment

Treesearch

Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins

2014-01-01

Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

Tools to Assess Community-Based Cumulative Risk and Exposures

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple agents and stressors can interact in a given community to adversely affect human and ecological conditions. A cumulative risk assessment (CRA) analyzes, characterizes, and potentially quantifies the effects from multiple stressors, which include chemical agents (for exam...

COMPUTATIONAL TOXICOLOGY: AN APPROACH FOR PRIORITIZING CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Characterizing toxic effects for industrial chemicals carries the challenge of focusing resources on the greatest potential risks for human health and the environment. The union of molecular modeling, bioinformatics and simulation of complex systems with emerging technologies suc...

Evidence Report: Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crucian, Brian; Sams, Clarence F.

2013-01-01

The Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response is identified by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program (HRP) as a recognized risk to human health and performance in space. The HRP Program Requirements Document (PRD) defines these risks. This Evidence Report provides a summary of the evidence that has been used to identify and characterize this risk. It is known that human immune function is altered in- and post-flight, but it is unclear at present if such alterations lead to increased susceptibility to disease. Reactivation of latent viruses has been documented in crewmembers, although this reactivation has not been directly correlated with immune changes or with observed diseases. As described in this report, further research is required to better characterize the relationships between altered immune response and susceptibility to disease during and after spaceflight. This is particularly important for future deep-space exploration missions.

The Role of the Gut Microbiome in Multiple Sclerosis Risk and Progression: Towards Characterization of the "MS Microbiome".

PubMed

Pröbstel, Anne-Katrin; Baranzini, Sergio E

2018-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the prototypic complex disease, in which both genes and the environment contribute to its pathogenesis. To date, > 200 independent loci across the genome have been associated with MS risk. However, these only explain a fraction of the total phenotypic variance, suggesting the possible presence of additional genetic factors, and, most likely, also environmental factors. New DNA sequencing technologies have enabled the sequencing of all kinds of microorganisms, including those living in and around humans (i.e., microbiomes). The study of bacterial populations inhabiting the gut is of particular interest in autoimmune diseases owing to their key role in shaping immune responses. In this review, we address the potential crosstalk between B cells and the gut microbiota, a relevant scenario in light of recently approved anti-B-cell therapies for MS. In addition, we review recent efforts to characterize the gut microbiome in patients with MS and discuss potential challenges and future opportunities. Finally, we describe the international MS microbiome study, a multicenter effort to study a large population of patients with MS and their healthy household partners to define the core MS microbiome, how it is shaped by disease-modifying therapies, and to explore potential therapeutic interventions.

Between-airport heterogeneity in air toxics emissions associated with individual cancer risk thresholds and population risks

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Airports represent a complex source type of increasing importance contributing to air toxics risks. Comprehensive atmospheric dispersion models are beyond the scope of many applications, so it would be valuable to rapidly but accurately characterize the risk-relevant exposure implications of emissions at an airport. Methods In this study, we apply a high resolution atmospheric dispersion model (AERMOD) to 32 airports across the United States, focusing on benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and benzo [a]pyrene. We estimate the emission rates required at these airports to exceed a 10-6 lifetime cancer risk for the maximally exposed individual (emission thresholds) and estimate the total population risk at these emission rates. Results The emission thresholds vary by two orders of magnitude across airports, with variability predicted by proximity of populations to the airport and mixing height (R2 = 0.74–0.75 across pollutants). At these emission thresholds, the population risk within 50 km of the airport varies by two orders of magnitude across airports, driven by substantial heterogeneity in total population exposure per unit emissions that is related to population density and uncorrelated with emission thresholds. Conclusion Our findings indicate that site characteristics can be used to accurately predict maximum individual risk and total population risk at a given level of emissions, but that optimizing on one endpoint will be non-optimal for the other. PMID:19426510

Integrated RNA-seq and sRNA-seq analysis reveals miRNA effects on secondary metabolism in Solanum tuberosum L.

PubMed

Qiao, Yan; Zhang, Jinjin; Zhang, Jinwen; Wang, Zhiwei; Ran, An; Guo, Haixia; Wang, Di; Zhang, Junlian

2017-02-01

Light is a major environmental factor that affects metabolic pathways and stimulates the production of secondary metabolites in potato. However, adaptive changes in potato metabolic pathways and physiological functions triggered by light are partly explained by gene expression changes. Regulation of secondary metabolic pathways in potato has been extensively studied at transcriptional level, but little is known about the mechanisms of post-transcriptional regulation by miRNAs. To identify light-responsive miRNAs/mRNAs and construct putative metabolism pathways regulated by the miRNA-mRNA pairs, an integrated omics (sRNAome and transcriptome) analysis was performed to potato under light stimulus. A total of 31 and 48 miRNAs were identified to be differentially expressed in the leaves and tubers, respectively. Among the DEGs, 1353 genes in the leaves and 1841 genes in the tubers were upregulated, while 1595 genes in the leaves and 897 genes in the tubers were downregulated by light. Mapman enrichment analyses showed that genes related to MVA pathway, alkaloids-like, phenylpropanoids, flavonoids, and carotenoids metabolism were significantly upregulated, while genes associated with major CHO metabolism were repressed in the leaves and tubers. Integrated miRNA and mRNA profiles revealed that light-responsive miRNAs are important regulators in alkaloids metabolism, UMP salvage, lipid biosynthesis, and cellulose catabolism. Moreover, several miRNAs may participate in glycoalkaloids metabolism via JA signaling pathway, UDP-glucose biosynthesis and hydroxylation reaction. This study provides a global view of miRNA and mRNA expression profiles in potato response to light, our results suggest that miRNAs might play important roles in secondary metabolic pathways, especially in glycoalkaloid biosynthesis. The findings will enlighten us on the genetic regulation of secondary metabolite pathways and pave the way for future application of genetically engineered potato.

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

2016-11-01

The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

Auditory Risk of Air Rifles

PubMed Central

Lankford, James E.; Meinke, Deanna K.; Flamme, Gregory A.; Finan, Donald S.; Stewart, Michael; Tasko, Stephen; Murphy, William J.

2016-01-01

Objective To characterize the impulse noise exposure and auditory risk for air rifle users for both youth and adults. Design Acoustic characteristics were examined and the auditory risk estimates were evaluated using contemporary damage-risk criteria for unprotected adult listeners and the 120-dB peak limit and LAeq75 exposure limit suggested by the World Health Organization (1999) for children. Study sample Impulses were generated by 9 pellet air rifles and 1 BB air rifle. Results None of the air rifles generated peak levels that exceeded the 140 dB peak limit for adults and 8 (80%) exceeded the 120 dB peak SPL limit for youth. In general, for both adults and youth there is minimal auditory risk when shooting less than 100 unprotected shots with pellet air rifles. Air rifles with suppressors were less hazardous than those without suppressors and the pellet air rifles with higher velocities were generally more hazardous than those with lower velocities. Conclusion To minimize auditory risk, youth should utilize air rifles with an integrated suppressor and lower velocity ratings. Air rifle shooters are advised to wear hearing protection whenever engaging in shooting activities in order to gain self-efficacy and model appropriate hearing health behaviors necessary for recreational firearm use. PMID:26840923

Characterization of clinical and genetic risk factors associated with dyslipidemia after kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Numakura, Kazuyuki; Kagaya, Hideaki; Yamamoto, Ryohei; Komine, Naoki; Saito, Mitsuru; Hiroshi, Tsuruta; Akihama, Susumu; Inoue, Takamitsu; Narita, Shintaro; Tsuchiya, Norihiko; Habuchi, Tomonori; Niioka, Takenori; Miura, Masatomo; Satoh, Shigeru

2015-01-01

We determined the prevalence of dyslipidemia in a Japanese cohort of renal allograft recipients and investigated clinical and genetic characteristics associated with having the disease. In total, 126 patients that received renal allograft transplants between February 2002 and August 2011 were studied, of which 44 recipients (34.9%) were diagnosed with dyslipidemia at 1 year after transplantation. Three clinical factors were associated with a risk of having dyslipidemia: a higher prevalence of disease observed among female than male patients (P = 0.021) and treatment with high mycophenolate mofetil (P = 0.012) and prednisolone (P = 0.023) doses per body weight at 28 days after transplantation. The genetic association between dyslipidemia and 60 previously described genetic polymorphisms in 38 putative disease-associated genes was analyzed. The frequency of dyslipidemia was significantly higher in patients with the glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1) Bcl1 G allele than in those with the CC genotype (P = 0.001). A multivariate analysis revealed that the NR3C1 Bcl1 G allele was a significant risk factor for the prevalence of dyslipidemia (odds ratio = 4.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.8-12.2). These findings may aid in predicting a patient's risk of developing dyslipidemia.

Characterization of Clinical and Genetic Risk Factors Associated with Dyslipidemia after Kidney Transplantation

PubMed Central

Numakura, Kazuyuki; Kagaya, Hideaki; Yamamoto, Ryohei; Komine, Naoki; Saito, Mitsuru; Hiroshi, Tsuruta; Akihama, Susumu; Narita, Shintaro; Tsuchiya, Norihiko; Habuchi, Tomonori; Niioka, Takenori; Miura, Masatomo; Satoh, Shigeru

2015-01-01

We determined the prevalence of dyslipidemia in a Japanese cohort of renal allograft recipients and investigated clinical and genetic characteristics associated with having the disease. In total, 126 patients that received renal allograft transplants between February 2002 and August 2011 were studied, of which 44 recipients (34.9%) were diagnosed with dyslipidemia at 1 year after transplantation. Three clinical factors were associated with a risk of having dyslipidemia: a higher prevalence of disease observed among female than male patients (P = 0.021) and treatment with high mycophenolate mofetil (P = 0.012) and prednisolone (P = 0.023) doses per body weight at 28 days after transplantation. The genetic association between dyslipidemia and 60 previously described genetic polymorphisms in 38 putative disease-associated genes was analyzed. The frequency of dyslipidemia was significantly higher in patients with the glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1) Bcl1 G allele than in those with the CC genotype (P = 0.001). A multivariate analysis revealed that the NR3C1 Bcl1 G allele was a significant risk factor for the prevalence of dyslipidemia (odds ratio = 4.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.8–12.2). These findings may aid in predicting a patient's risk of developing dyslipidemia. PMID:25944971

Current issues and perspectives in food safety and risk assessment.

PubMed

Eisenbrand, G

2015-12-01

In this review, current issues and opportunities in food safety assessment are discussed. Food safety is considered an essential element inherent in global food security. Hazard characterization is pivotal within the continuum of risk assessment, but it may be conceived only within a very limited frame as a true alternative to risk assessment. Elucidation of the mode of action underlying a given hazard is vital to create a plausible basis for human toxicology evaluation. Risk assessment, to convey meaningful risk communication, must be based on appropriate and reliable consideration of both exposure and mode of action. New perspectives, provided by monitoring human exogenous and endogenous exposure biomarkers, are considered of great promise to support classical risk extrapolation from animal toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

SU-E-T-365: Estimation of Neutron Ambient Dose Equivalents for Radioprotection Exposed Workers in Radiotherapy Facilities Based On Characterization Patient Risk Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Irazola, L; Terron, J; Sanchez-Doblado, F

2015-06-15

Purpose: Previous measurements with Bonner spheres{sup 1} showed that normalized neutron spectra are equal for the majority of the existing linacs{sup 2}. This information, in addition to thermal neutron fluences obtained in the characterization procedure{sup 3}3, would allow to estimate neutron doses accidentally received by exposed workers, without the need of an extra experimental measurement. Methods: Monte Carlo (MC) simulations demonstrated that the thermal neutron fluence distribution inside the bunker is quite uniform, as a consequence of multiple scatter in the walls{sup 4}. Although inverse square law is approximately valid for the fast component, a more precise calculation could bemore » obtained with a generic fast fluence distribution map around the linac, from MC simulations{sup 4}. Thus, measurements of thermal neutron fluences performed during the characterization procedure{sup 3}, together with a generic unitary spectra{sup 2}, would allow to estimate the total neutron fluences and H*(10) at any point{sup 5}. As an example, we compared estimations with Bonner sphere measurements{sup 1}, for two points in five facilities: 3 Siemens (15–23 MV), Elekta (15 MV) and Varian (15 MV). Results: Thermal neutron fluences obtained from characterization, are within (0.2–1.6×10{sup 6}) cm−{sup 2}•Gy{sup −1} for the five studied facilities. This implies ambient equivalent doses ranging from (0.27–2.01) mSv/Gy 50 cm far from the isocenter and (0.03–0.26) mSv/Gy at detector location with an average deviation of ±12.1% respect to Bonner measurements. Conclusion: The good results obtained demonstrate that neutron fluence and H*(10) can be estimated based on: (a) characterization procedure established for patient risk estimation in each facility, (b) generic unitary neutron spectrum and (c) generic MC map distribution of the fast component. [1] Radiat. Meas (2010) 45: 1391 – 1397; [2] Phys. Med. Biol (2012) 5 7:6167–6191; [3] Med. Phys (2015) 42

Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

1991-05-01

Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

Trace Elemental Characterization of Chalk Dust and Their Associated Health Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Maruthi, Y A; Ramprasad, S; Lakshmana Das, N

2017-02-01

It is evident that chalk produces dust on use, i.e., particulate matter, which will alter the air quality of classrooms and can cause health hazards in teachers. The possible causes for health effects of chalk dust on teachers are still unclear. Hence, the aim of this study is to estimate the concentration of trace elements (Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Si, Pb) in chalk dust collected from classrooms by using ICP-MS. Both suspended and settled chalk dust was collected from selected classrooms. Suspended chalk dust was collected with PM2.5 filter paper using fine dust sampler, and settled chalk dust was collected by placing petriplates at a distance of 3 m from the board for a duration period of 30 min. Scanning electron microscopy images of chalk dust were taken up. Potential health risk analysis was also assessed. Results showed that Al, Fe, and Mn are in higher concentration (>1000 μg kg -1 ) in both settled and suspended chalk dust. Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, and Ni were beyond the minimal risk levels in both settled and suspended chalk dust. There are no minimal risk levels for the elements Al, Si, and Pb. The concentration of trace elements in suspended chalk dust was higher than that in settled chalk dust. The SEM images of PM2.5 filter papers (suspended chalk dust) showed that all pores of the sampled filter papers are clogged with chalk dust. The few SEM images of the settled chalk dust showed fibrous shape which is associated with good-quality chalk whereas others showed circular and more aggregated nature of chalk dust from low-quality chalk from which the dust production will be very high. As observed from the result that the trace elements concentration was high in the suspended chalk dust, the fact can be correlated with the SEM images which have shown high density of absorbed chalk dust. With reference to human health risk, dermal exposure was the main route of exposure followed by inhalation and ingestion. Al (aluminum), Fe (iron), Si (silicon), and Mn

Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

[Chronic Pancreatitis and Pancreatic Cancer - Tumor Risk and Screening].

PubMed

Beyer, Georg; D'Haese, Jan G; Ormanns, Steffen; Mayerle, Julia

2018-06-01

Chronic pancreatitis is a fibroinflammatory syndrome of the exocrine pancreas, which is characterized by an increasing incidence, high morbidity and lethality. Common etiologies besides alcohol and nicotine consumption include genetic causes and risk factors. The life time risk for the development of pancreatic cancer is elevated 13- to 45-fold depending on the underlying etiology. In patients with chronic pancreatitis clinical, laboratory and imaging surveillance for early detection of complications, including pancreatic cancer, is recommended, although the available methods lack the desired sensitivity and specificity. In this article we review the epidemiology, etiologies and risk factors for chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer and discuss current recommendations for screening and management of patients at risk for tumor development. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Systematic Proteomic Approach to Characterize the Impacts of Chemical Interactions on Protein and Cytotoxicity Responses to Metal Mixture Exposures

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical interactions have posed a big challenge in toxicity characterization and human health risk assessment of environmental mixtures. To characterize the impacts of chemical interactions on protein and cytotoxicity responses to environmental mixtures, we established a systems...

Forest fuel characterization using direct sampling in forest plantations

Treesearch

Eva Reyna Esmeralda Díaz García; Marco Aurelio González Tagle; Javier Jiménez Pérez; Eduardo JavierTreviño Garza; Diana Yemilet Ávila Flores

2013-01-01

One of the essential elements for a fire to occur is the flammable material. This is defined as the total biomass that has the ability to ignite and burn when exposed to a heat source. Fuel characterization in Mexican forest ecosystems is very scarce. However, this information is very important for estimating flammability and forest fire risk, fire behavior,...

Definition and GIS-based characterization of an integral risk index applied to a chemical/petrochemical area.

PubMed

Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2006-08-01

A risk map of the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) was designed following a two-stage procedure. The first step was the creation of a ranking system (Hazard Index) for a number of different inorganic and organic pollutants: heavy metals, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by applying self-organizing maps (SOM) to persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of the chemicals. PCBs seemed to be the most hazardous compounds, while the light PAHs showed the minimum values. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the Hazard Index and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the assessed area of Tarragona. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a geographic information system (GIS). The results of the present study seem to indicate that the development of an integral risk map might be useful to help in making-decision processes concerning environmental pollutants.

Malpractice Risk Among US Pediatricians

PubMed Central

Chandra, Amitabh; Seabury, Seth A.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To characterize malpractice risk among US pediatricians. METHODS: We analyzed malpractice claims of all pediatricians and other physicians covered by a nationwide liability insurer from 1991 to 2005 (n = 1630 pediatricians; 40 916 total physicians). We characterized annual malpractice risk among pediatricians compared with other physicians. We characterized claims according to patient age, injury type, months required to resolve the claim, and whether an indemnity payment was made. We estimated how patient age and injury type were associated with whether a claim resulted in payment to a patient (and if so, payment size) and the time required to resolve the claim. RESULTS: The annual percentage of pediatricians facing a malpractice claim was 3.1% (7.4% among other physicians, P < .001). Among 404 claims, 83 (20.5%) resulted in an indemnity payment and 15 (3.7%) resulted in a payment exceeding $1 million. Annual rates of indemnity were lower among pediatricians (0.5%) than other physicians (1.6%, P < .001), whereas rates of payments exceeding $1 million were similar (0.13% among pediatricians and 0.11% among other physicians, P = .57). The mean indemnity payment was $562 180 (SD $667 962). Cases with permanent injury (n = 172) had larger mean payments ($703 373) compared with fatalities ($559 102; n = 131) or temporary or psychological injuries ($127 663; n = 101), P < .05. The mean time to resolution was 23.4 months (SD 21.8 months). CONCLUSIONS: Indemnity payments among pediatricians are infrequent but large, particularly in cases with permanent patient injury rather than death or temporary injury. The time required to resolve claims may be considered to be long. PMID:23650293

Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

2016-01-01

In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

Threshold exceedance risk assessment in complex space-time systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angulo, José M.; Madrid, Ana E.; Romero, José L.

2015-04-01

Environmental and health impact risk assessment studies most often involve analysis and characterization of complex spatio-temporal dynamics. Recent developments in this context are addressed, among other objectives, to proper representation of structural heterogeneities, heavy-tailed processes, long-range dependence, intermittency, scaling behavior, etc. Extremal behaviour related to spatial threshold exceedances can be described in terms of geometrical characteristics and distribution patterns of excursion sets, which are the basis for construction of risk-related quantities, such as in the case of evolutionary study of 'hotspots' and long-term indicators of occurrence of extremal episodes. Derivation of flexible techniques, suitable for both the application under general conditions and the interpretation on singularities, is important for practice. Modern risk theory, a developing discipline motivated by the need to establish solid general mathematical-probabilistic foundations for rigorous definition and characterization of risk measures, has led to the introduction of a variety of classes and families, ranging from some conceptually inspired by specific fields of applications, to some intended to provide generality and flexibility to risk analysts under parametric specifications, etc. Quantile-based risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), Average Value-at-Risk (AVaR), and generalization to spectral measures, are of particular interest for assessment under very general conditions. In this work, we study the application of quantile-based risk measures in the spatio-temporal context in relation to certain geometrical characteristics of spatial threshold exceedance sets. In particular, we establish a closed-form relationship between VaR, AVaR, and the expected value of threshold exceedance areas and excess volumes. Conditional simulation allows us, by means of empirical global and local spatial cumulative distributions, the derivation of various statistics of

Fundamentals of health risk assessment. Use, derivation, validity and limitations of safety indices.

PubMed

Putzrath, R M; Wilson, J D

1999-04-01

We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the "NAS paradigm." Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as "Acceptable Daily Intake," "Reference Dose," and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Risk is characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U.S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's "Proposition 65," where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of "conventional air pollutants." These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

Characterization of spacecraft humidity condensate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muckle, Susan; Schultz, John R.; Sauer, Richard L.

1994-01-01

When construction of Space Station Freedom reaches the Permanent Manned Capability (PMC) stage, the Water Recovery and Management Subsystem will be fully operational such that (distilled) urine, spent hygiene water, and humidity condensate will be reclaimed to provide water of potable quality. The reclamation technologies currently baselined to process these waste waters include adsorption, ion exchange, catalytic oxidation, and disinfection. To ensure that the baseline technologies will be able to effectively remove those compounds presenting a health risk to the crew, the National Research Council has recommended that additional information be gathered on specific contaminants in waste waters representative of those to be encountered on the Space Station. With the application of new analytical methods and the analysis of waste water samples more representative of the Space Station environment, advances in the identification of the specific contaminants continue to be made. Efforts by the Water and Food Analytical Laboratory at JSC were successful in enlarging the database of contaminants in humidity condensate. These efforts have not only included the chemical characterization of condensate generated during ground-based studies, but most significantly the characterization of cabin and Spacelab condensate generated during Shuttle missions. The analytical results presented in this paper will be used to show how the composition of condensate varies amongst enclosed environments and thus the importance of collecting condensate from an environment close to that of the proposed Space Station. Although advances were made in the characterization of space condensate, complete characterization, particularly of the organics, requires further development of analytical methods.

A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States

Treesearch

Jessica R. Haas; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire...

Modeling of Near-Surface Leakage and Seepage of CO2 for Risk Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Unger, Andre A.J.

2004-02-18

The injection of carbon dioxide (CO2) into deep geologic carbon sequestration sites entails risk that CO2 will leak away from the primary storage formation and migrate upwards to the unsaturated zone from which it can seep out of the ground. We have developed a coupled modeling framework called T2CA for simulating CO2 leakage and seepage in the subsurface and in the atmospheric surface layer. The results of model simulations can be used to calculate the two key health, safety, and environmental (HSE) risk drivers, namely CO2 seepage flux and nearsurface CO2 concentrations. Sensitivity studies for a subsurface system with amore » thick unsaturated zone show limited leakage attenuation resulting in correspondingly large CO2 concentrations in the shallow subsurface. Large CO2 concentrations in the shallow subsurface present a risk to plant and tree roots, and to humans and other animals in subsurface structures such as basements or utility vaults. Whereas CO2 concentrations in the subsurface can be high, surfacelayer winds reduce CO2 concentrations to low levels for the fluxes investigated. We recommend more verification and case studies be carried out with T2CA, along with the development of extensions to handle additional scenarios such as calm conditions, topographic effects, and catastrophic surface-layer discharge events.« less

Characterization of mercury and its risk in Nelson's, Saltmarsh, and Seaside Sparrows.

PubMed

Winder, Virginia L

2012-01-01

Nelson's, Saltmarsh, and Seaside Sparrows (Ammodramus nelsoni, A. caudacutus, and A. maritimus, respectively) depend on marsh and wetland habitats--ecosystems in which mercury (Hg) bioavailability is notoriously high. The purpose of the present study was to address the potential impact of Hg on these species using first primary and breast feathers as non-destructive biomonitoring tools. Feathers were sampled from wintering sparrows in North Carolina salt marshes (2006-2010). Feather Hg data were used in three risk analysis components (1) Threshold Component--examined feather Hg with regard to published negative effects thresholds; (2) Hg Dynamics Component--examined Hg in sparrows captured multiple times; and (3) Capture Frequency and Survival Component--tested for links between Hg and return frequency and survival. Threshold Component analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in 42-77% of sampled individuals (breast feather n = 879; first primary feather n = 663) were within the range associated with decreased reproduction in other avian species. Hg Dynamics Component analyses demonstrated that Hg increased between first and second captures for Nelson's (n = 9) and Seaside Sparrows (n = 23). Capture Frequency and Survival Component analyses detected a negative relationship between Hg and capture frequency in Nelson's Sparrows (n = 315). However, MARK models detected no effect of Hg on apparent survival in any species. This study indicates that current Hg exposure places a considerable proportion of each population at risk. In particular, 52% of all sampled Saltmarsh Sparrows exhibited first primary feather Hg concentrations exceeding those associated with a >60% reduction in reproductive success in other species. This study reports evidence for net annual bioaccumulation, indicating an increased risk in older individuals. These data can be used to inform future population assessments and management for these species.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2012-01-01

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between occupational livestock contact and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus carriage among workers in Guangdong, China.

PubMed

Ye, Xiaohua; Liu, Weidong; Fan, Yanping; Wang, Xiaolin; Zhou, Junli; Yao, Zhenjiang; Chen, Sidong

2015-07-01

Increasing evidence indicates a strong association between occupational livestock contact and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriage. However, it remains unclear whether there are frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between occupational livestock contact and human MRSA carriage. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Guangdong, China, using a multistage sampling method. Participants were interviewed and provided a nasal swab for S aureus analysis. All MRSA isolates were genotyped by multilocus sequence typing. The dose-response relation was examined using logistic regression models. Among the 1,860 participants, 1.4% of controls tested positive for MRSA (characterized as sequence type [ST] 59 and ST7), and 7% of workers with livestock contact tested positive for MRSA (characterized as ST9, ST59, and ST7). There was a 5.31 times increased risk of MRSA carriage corresponding to occupational livestock contact (odds ratio = 6.31; 95% confidence interval, 3.44-11.57) using no contact as reference. We found frequency and short-term duration of occupational livestock contact were associated with increased risk of MRSA carriage in a dose-response manner. These significant trends were observed consistently among workers with occupational pig contact. However, no long-term duration-risk increasing trend was observed for occupational livestock or pig contact. Our findings suggest that there may be dose-response relations between occupational livestock contact and human MRSA carriage. Nasal MRSA clonal complex 9 is not found in controls, but it is found in workers with livestock contact. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Which Fearful Toddlers Should We Worry About? Context, Fear Regulation, and Anxiety Risk

PubMed Central

Buss, Kristin A.

2010-01-01

The current study tests a model of risk for anxiety in fearful toddlers characterized by the regulation of the intensity of withdrawal behavior across a variety of contexts. Participants included 111, low-risk, 24-month-old toddlers followed longitudinally each year through the fall of their kindergarten year. The key hypothesis was that being fearful in situations that are relatively low in threat (i.e., are predictable, controllable, and in which children have many coping resources) is an early precursor to risk for anxiety development as measured by parent and teacher report of anxious behaviors in kindergarten. Results supported the prediction such that it is not how much fear is expressed, but when the fear is expressed and how it is expressed that is important for characterizing adaptive behavior. Implications are discussed for a model of risk that includes the regulation of fear, the role of eliciting context, social wariness, and the importance of examining developmental transitions, such as the start of formal schooling. These findings have implications for the way we identify fearful children who may be at risk for developing anxiety-related problems. PMID:21463035

Chromatography in the detection and characterization of illegal pharmaceutical preparations.

PubMed

Deconinck, Eric; Sacré, Pierre-Yves; Courselle, Patricia; De Beer, Jacques O

2013-09-01

Counterfeit and illegal pharmaceutical products are an increasing worldwide problem and constitute a major challenge for analytical laboratories to detect and characterize them. Spectroscopic techniques such as infrared spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy have always been the first methods of choice to detect counterfeits and illegal preparations, but due to the evolution in the seized products and the necessity of risk assessment, chromatographic methods are becoming more important in this domain. This review intends to give a general overview of the techniques described in literature to characterize counterfeit and illegal pharmaceutical preparations, focusing on the role of chromatographic techniques with different detection tools.

Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: the Case of Radon and Smoking

EPA Science Inventory

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case exam...

Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger

PubMed Central

Parry, Martin; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Livermore, Matthew

2005-01-01

This paper reports the results of a series of research projects which have aimed to evaluate the implications of climate change for food production and risk of hunger. There are three sets of results: (a) for IS92a (previously described as a ‘business-as-usual’ climate scenario); (b) for stabilization scenarios at 550 and 750 ppm and (c) for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The main conclusions are: (i) the region of greatest risk is Africa; (ii) stabilization at 750 ppm avoids some but not most of the risk, while stabilization at 550 ppm avoids most of the risk and (iii) the impact of climate change on risk of hunger is influenced greatly by pathways of development. For example, a SRES B2 development pathway is characterized by much lower levels of risk than A2; and this is largely explained by differing levels of income and technology not by differing amounts of climate forcing. PMID:16433098

Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

PubMed

Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

2011-12-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

2016-05-01

Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

Sexual Assault Victims' Acknowledgment Status and Revictimization Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Littleton, Heather; Axsom, Danny; Grills-Taquechel, Amie

2009-01-01

How a victim of rape characterizes her assault has potential implications for her postassault experiences and revictimization risk. Prior research has identified several potential benefits to not conceptualizing one's experience as a form of victimization. The current study sought to identify whether there are costs to not acknowledging rape as…

Evidence Report: Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel

2012-01-01

The Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies is identified by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program (HRP) as a recognized risk to human health and performance in space. The HRP Program Requirements Document (PRD) defines these risks. This Evidence Report provides a summary of the evidence that has been used to identify and characterize this risk. Given that training content, timing, intervals, and delivery methods must support crew task performance, and given that training paradigms will be different for long-duration missions with increased crew autonomy, there is a risk that operators will lack the skills or knowledge necessary to complete critical tasks, resulting in flight and ground crew errors and inefficiencies, failed mission and program objectives, and an increase in crew injuries.

ATM, radiation, and the risk of second primary breast cancer.

PubMed

Bernstein, Jonine L; Concannon, Patrick

2017-10-01

It was first suggested more than 40 years ago that heterozygous carriers for the human autosomal recessive disorder Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T) might also be at increased risk for cancer. Subsequent studies have identified the responsible gene, Ataxia-Telangiectasia Mutated (ATM), characterized genetic variation at this locus in A-T and a variety of different cancers, and described the functions of the ATM protein with regard to cellular DNA damage responses. However, an overall model of how ATM contributes to cancer risk, and in particular, the role of DNA damage in this process, remains lacking. This review considers these questions in the context of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Heterozygous carriers of loss of function mutations in ATM that are A-T causing, are at increased risk of breast cancer. However, examination of a range of genetic variants, both rare and common, across multiple cancers, suggests that ATM may have additional effects on cancer risk that are allele-dependent. In the case of CBC, selected common alleles at ATM are associated with a reduced incidence of CBC, while other rare and predicted deleterious variants may act jointly with radiation exposure to increase risk. Further studies that characterize germline and somatic ATM mutations in breast cancer and relate the detected genetic changes to functional outcomes, particularly with regard to radiation responses, are needed to gain a complete picture of the complex relationship between ATM, radiation and breast cancer.

Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

PubMed

Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

2013-11-30

Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization and source apportionment of health risks from ambient PM10 in Hong Kong over 2000-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiyuan; Yuan, Zibing; Li, Ying; Lau, Alexis K. H.; Louie, Peter K. K.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) pollution is a major public health concern in Hong Kong. In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of health risks from ambient PM10 from seven air quality monitoring stations between 2000 and 2011 were analyzed. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was adopted to identify major source categories of ambient PM10 and quantify their contributions. Afterwards, a point-estimated risk model was used to identify the inhalation cancer and non-cancer risks of PM10 sources. The long-term trends of the health risks from classified local and non-local sources were explored. Furthermore, the reason for the increase of health risks during high PM10 days was discussed. Results show that vehicle exhaust source was the dominant inhalation cancer risk (ICR) contributor (72%), whereas trace metals and vehicle exhaust sources contributed approximately 27% and 21% of PM10 inhalation non-cancer risk (INCR), respectively. The identified local sources accounted for approximately 80% of the ICR in Hong Kong, while contribution percentages of the non-local and local sources for INCR are comparable. The clear increase of ICR at high PM days was mainly attributed to the increase of contributions from coal combustion/biomass burning and secondary sulfate, while the increase of INCR at high PM days was attributed to the increase of contributions from the sources coal combustion/biomass burning, secondary nitrate, and trace metals. This study highlights the importance of health risk-based source apportionment in air quality management with protecting human health as the ultimate target.

Clinical interpretation of pathogenic ATM and CHEK2 variants on multigene panel tests: navigating moderate risk.

PubMed

West, Allison H; Blazer, Kathleen R; Stoll, Jessica; Jones, Matthew; Weipert, Caroline M; Nielsen, Sarah M; Kupfer, Sonia S; Weitzel, Jeffrey N; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I

2018-02-14

Comprehensive genomic cancer risk assessment (GCRA) helps patients, family members, and providers make informed choices about cancer screening, surgical and chemotherapeutic risk reduction, and genetically targeted cancer therapies. The increasing availability of multigene panel tests for clinical applications allows testing of well-defined high-risk genes, as well as moderate-risk genes, for which the penetrance and spectrum of cancer risk are less well characterized. Moderate-risk genes are defined as genes that, when altered by a pathogenic variant, confer a 2 to fivefold relative risk of cancer. Two such genes included on many comprehensive cancer panels are the DNA repair genes ATM and CHEK2, best known for moderately increased risk of breast cancer development. However, the impact of screening and preventative interventions and spectrum of cancer risk beyond breast cancer associated with ATM and/or CHEK2 variants remain less well characterized. We convened a large, multidisciplinary, cross-sectional panel of GCRA clinicians to review challenging, peer-submitted cases of patients identified with ATM or CHEK2 variants. This paper summarizes the inter-professional case discussion and recommendations generated during the session, the level of concordance with respect to recommendations between the academic and community clinician participants for each case, and potential barriers to implementing recommended care in various practice settings.

Inhalation Anthrax: Dose Response and Risk Analysis

PubMed Central

Thran, Brandolyn; Morse, Stephen S.; Hugh-Jones, Martin; Massulik, Stacey

2008-01-01

The notion that inhalation of a single Bacillus anthracis spore is fatal has become entrenched nearly to the point of urban legend, in part because of incomplete articulation of the scientific basis for microbial risk assessment, particularly dose-response assessment. Risk analysis (ie, risk assessment, risk communication, risk management) necessitates transparency: distinguishing scientific facts, hypotheses, judgments, biases in interpretations, and potential misinformation. The difficulty in achieving transparency for biothreat risk is magnified by misinformation and poor characterization of both dose-response relationships and the driving mechanisms that cause susceptibility or resistance to disease progression. Regrettably, this entrenchment unnecessarily restricts preparedness planning to a single response scenario: decontaminate until no spores are detectable in air, water, or on surfaces—essentially forcing a zero-tolerance policy inconsistent with the biology of anthrax. We present evidence about inhalation anthrax dose-response relationships, including reports from multiple studies documenting exposures insufficient to cause inhalation anthrax in laboratory animals and humans. The emphasis of the article is clarification about what is known from objective scientific evidence for doses of anthrax spores associated with survival and mortality. From this knowledge base, we discuss the need for future applications of more formal risk analysis processes to guide development of alternative non-zero criteria or standards based on science to inform preparedness planning and other risk management activities. PMID:18582166

Risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions.

PubMed

Yang, Yu; Lian, Xin-Ying; Jiang, Yong-Hai; Xi, Bei-Dou; He, Xiao-Song

2017-11-01

Agricultural regions are a significant source of groundwater pesticide pollution. To ensure that agricultural regions with a significantly high risk of groundwater pesticide contamination are properly managed, a risk-based ranking method related to groundwater pesticide contamination is needed. In the present paper, a risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions was established. The method encompasses 3 phases, including indicator selection, characterization, and classification. In the risk ranking index system employed here, 17 indicators involving the physicochemical properties, environmental behavior characteristics, pesticide application methods, and inherent vulnerability of groundwater in the agricultural region were selected. The boundary of each indicator was determined using K-means cluster analysis based on a survey of a typical agricultural region and the physical and chemical properties of 300 typical pesticides. The total risk characterization was calculated by multiplying the risk value of each indicator, which could effectively avoid the subjectivity of index weight calculation and identify the main factors associated with the risk. The results indicated that the risk for groundwater pesticide contamination from agriculture in a region could be ranked into 4 classes from low to high risk. This method was applied to an agricultural region in Jiangsu Province, China, and it showed that this region had a relatively high risk for groundwater contamination from pesticides, and that the pesticide application method was the primary factor contributing to the relatively high risk. The risk ranking method was determined to be feasible, valid, and able to provide reference data related to the risk management of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1052-1059. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

PubMed

Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

2016-02-01

Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P < 0.001). Anesthesiologists with the highest academic rank and years of experience also had higher odds of ARCA (P = 0.02). After risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

Characterizing implementation strategies using a systems engineering survey and interview tool: a comparison across 10 prevention programs for drug abuse and HIV sexual risk behavior.

PubMed

Czaja, Sara J; Valente, Thomas W; Nair, Sankaran N; Villamar, Juan A; Brown, C Hendricks

2016-05-17

Although many behavioral interventions have proven to be efficacious, new methodologies are required beyond efficacy trials to understand how to adopt, implement with fidelity, and sustain behavioral interventions in community settings. In this paper, we present a new approach, based on systems engineering concepts and methods, for characterizing implementation strategies that are used to deliver evidence-based behavioral interventions in health and social service settings. We demonstrate the use of this approach with implementation strategies, used or being used for broader dissemination of 10 evidence-based prevention program projects focused on the prevention of drug or HIV sex risk behaviors. The results indicate that there are wide variations in intervention approaches and that there are challenges in program implementation including maintaining program fidelity, serving community needs, and adequate resources. The results also indicate that implementation requires a committed partnership between the program developers, implementation researchers, and community partners. In addition, there is a need for adaptability within programs to meet community needs, resources, and priorities while maintaining program fidelity. Our methodological approach enabled us to highlight challenges associated with the community implementation of health risk prevention interventions. We also demonstrate how comprehensive descriptions of interventions facilitate understanding of the requirements of program implementation and decisions about the feasibility of implementing a program in community settings.

Alzheimer's Disease in Down Syndrome: Neurobiology and Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zigman, Warren B.; Lott, Ira T.

2007-01-01

Down syndrome (DS) is characterized by increased mortality rates, both during early and later stages of life, and age-specific mortality risk remains higher in adults with DS compared with the overall population of people with mental retardation and with typically developing populations. Causes of increased mortality rates early in life are…

Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

2003-01-01

A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.

2013-04-01

Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

Characterization of soil heavy metal contamination and potential health risk in metropolitan region of northern China.

PubMed

Qiao, Min; Cai, Chao; Huang, Yizong; Liu, Yunxia; Lin, Aijun; Zheng, Yuanming

2011-01-01

Soil in metropolitan region suffers great contamination risk due to the rapid urbanization especially in developing countries. Beijing and Tianjin, together with their surrounding regions, form a mega-metropolitan region in northern China. To assess the soil environmental quality, a total of 458 surface soil samples were collected from this area. Concentrations of Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn, As, Cd, and Hg were analyzed and compared to the Chinese environmental quality standards for soil. Multivariate analysis was carried out to identify the possible sources and Geographic Information Systems techniques were applied to visualize the spatial data. It was found that the primary inputs of As were due to pedogenic sources, whereas Hg was mainly of anthropogenic source. Other elements including Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn, and Cd were from both lithogenic and anthropogenic origins. Health risk assessment based on the maximum heavy metal concentration indicated that As derived from sewage irrigation area can result in carcinogenic lifetime risk due to ingestion and/or dermal contact of soil. The potential non-carcinogenic risk for children is significant for Pb and the cumulative effect of multiple metals is of concern for children in the vicinity of mining site. The results increased our knowledge for understanding natural and anthropogenic sources as well as health risk for metals in metropolitan soil.

Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

PubMed

Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

2014-03-01

The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI <0.1-4) leukemia case (all in excess of risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

Characterization of large price variations in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansen, Anders

2003-06-01

Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher (> two) order correlations, they offer a better measure of real market risks than the variance or other cumulants of daily (or some other fixed time scale) of returns. Previous results have shown that the vast majority of drawdowns occurring on the major financial markets have a distribution which is well represented by a stretched exponential, while the largest drawdowns are occurring with a significantly larger rate than predicted by the bulk of the distribution and should thus be characterized as outliers (Eur. Phys. J. B 1 (1998) 141; J. Risk 2001). In the present analysis, the definition of drawdowns is generalized to coarse-grained drawdowns or so-called ε-drawdowns and a link between such ε- outliers and preceding log-periodic power law bubbles previously identified (Quantitative Finance 1 (2001) 452) is established.

Health risk of combustion products: toxicological considerations.

PubMed

Neumann, H G

2001-01-01

Combustion of organic material produces an almost uncountable number of products among which are many chemicals known to have toxic properties. A pertinent example is the diesel engine emission. There is concern about the possible health effects and we would like to know what risk is associated with the exposure. If risk is defined as the probability that a certain health effect occurs within a defined time span or as a result of a certain strain (Royal Society Study Group)--and it is important to emphasize the quantitative aspect of this definition--we must admit that we do not know a good answer. The example of diesel exhaust is used to demonstrate the toxicological approach to risk characterization in general and the possible improvement of exposure assessment with nitroarenes as indicators for environmental contaminations in particular.

Probabilistic characterization of wind turbine blades via aeroelasticity and spinning finite element formulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velazquez, Antonio; Swartz, R. Andrew

2012-04-01

Wind energy is an increasingly important component of this nation's renewable energy portfolio, however safe and economical wind turbine operation is a critical need to ensure continued adoption. Safe operation of wind turbine structures requires not only information regarding their condition, but their operational environment. Given the difficulty inherent in SHM processes for wind turbines (damage detection, location, and characterization), some uncertainty in conditional assessment is expected. Furthermore, given the stochastic nature of the loading on turbine structures, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize their risk of failure at a given time. Such information will be invaluable to turbine controllers, allowing them to operate the structures within acceptable risk profiles. This study explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the turbine blade structures. A framework is presented to develop an analytical estimation of the loading environment (including loading effects) based on the dynamic behavior of the blades. This is influenced by behaviors including along and across-wind aero-elastic effects, wind shear gradient, tower shadow effects, and centrifugal stiffening effects. The proposed solution includes methods that are based on modal decomposition of the blades and require frequent updates to the estimated modal properties to account for the time-varying nature of the turbine and its environment. The estimated demand statistics are compared to a code-based resistance curve to determine a probabilistic estimate of the risk of blade failure given the loading environment.

An overview on the emerging area of identification, characterization, and assessment of health apps.

PubMed

Paglialonga, Alessia; Lugo, Alessandra; Santoro, Eugenio

2018-05-28

The need to characterize and assess health apps has inspired a significant amount of research in the past years, in search for methods able to provide potential app users with relevant, meaningful knowledge. This article presents an overview of the recent literature in this field and categorizes - by discussing some specific examples - the various methodologies introduced so far for the identification, characterization, and assessment of health apps. Specifically, this article outlines the most significant web-based resources for app identification, relevant frameworks for descriptive characterization of apps' features, and a number of methods for the assessment of quality along its various components (e.g., evidence base, trustworthiness, privacy, or user engagement). The development of methods to characterize the apps' features and to assess their quality is important to define benchmarks and minimum requirements. Similarly, such methods are important to categorize potential risks and challenges in the field so that risks can be minimized, whenever possible, by design. Understanding methods to assess apps is key to raise the standards of quality of health apps on the market, towards the final goal of delivering apps that are built on the pillars of evidence-base, reliability, long-term effectiveness, and user-oriented quality. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

2015-04-01

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Weighing the evidence of ecological risk from chemical contamination in the estuarine environment adjacent to the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Kittery, Maine, USA.

PubMed

Johnston, Robert K; Munns, Wayne R; Tyler, Patti Lynne; Marajh-Whittemore, Patty; Finkelstein, Kenneth; Munney, Kenneth; Short, Fred T; Melville, Ann; Hahn, Simeon P

2002-01-01

In characterizing ecological risks, considerable consensus building and professional judgments are required to develop conclusions about risk. This is because how to evaluate all the factors that determine ecological risk is not well defined and is subject to interpretation. Here we report on the application of a procedure to weigh the evidence of ecological risk and develop conclusions about risk that will incorporate the strengths and weaknesses of the assessment. The procedure was applied to characterize ecological risk of chemical contamination in nearshore areas adjacent to the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, located at the mouth of the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire and Maine, USA. Measures of exposure and effect were used to interpret the magnitude of risk to the assessment endpoints of pelagic species, epibenthic species, the benthic community, eelgrass plants, the salt marsh community, and avian receptors. The evidence of chemical exposure from water, sediment, and tissue and the evidence of biological effects to representative pelagic, epibenthic, benthic, eelgrass, salt marsh, and avian species were weighed to characterize ecological risk. Individual measures were weighted by the quality and reliability of their data and risk was estimated from the preponderance, magnitude, extent, and strength of causal relationships between the data on exposure and effects. Relating evidence of risk to hypothesized pathways of exposure made it possible to estimate the magnitude of risk from sediment and water and express the confidence associated with the findings. Systematically weighing the evidence of risk rendered conclusions about risk in a manner that was clearly defined, objective, consistent, and did not rely solely on professional judgment.

Elevated venous thromboembolism risk in preeclampsia: molecular mechanisms and clinical impact.

PubMed

Egan, Karl; Kevane, Barry; Ní Áinle, Fionnuala

2015-08-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains a leading cause of maternal death and morbidity in the developed world. Strategies for prevention of VTE in pregnancy have been the subject of recent guidelines and consensus statements. These guidelines recommend thrombosis prevention in women who have risk factors associated with an elevated VTE risk. Preeclampsia is characterized by maternal hypertension and proteinuria developing after 20 weeks gestation, complicating up to 7% of pregnancies and is associated with a massive annual morbidity and mortality burden. Women with preeclampsia have been shown to be at increased risk of VTE with studies to date suggesting that this risk may be up to 5-fold greater than the risk of pregnancy-associated VTE in the general population. Despite the fact that preeclampsia is so common and potentially devastating, our understanding of its pathogenesis and potential therapeutic strategies remain poor. In addition, the mechanisms underlying the prothrombotic phenotype in preeclampsia are also poorly characterized although a number of potential mechanisms have been postulated. Derangements of platelet and endothelial activation and impairment of endogenous anti-coagulant pathways have been reported and may contribute to the observed VTE risk. Recently, evidence for the role of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) and cell-free DNA in the pathogenesis of VTE has emerged and some evidence exists to suggest that this may be of relevance in preeclampsia. Future studies aimed at understanding the diagnostic and potential therapeutic relevance of this procoagulant state are likely to be of enormous clinical benefit for pregnant women affected with this potentially devastating condition. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

Characterization of nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite markers for Falcaria vulgaris (Apiaceae)

Treesearch

Sarbottam Piya; Madhav P. Nepal

2013-01-01

Falcaria vulgaris (sickleweed) is native to Eurasia and a potential invasive plant of the United States. No molecular markers have been developed so far for sickleweed. Characterization of molecular markers for this plant would allow investigation into its population structure and biogeography thereby yielding insights into risk analysis and effective management...

Conceptual Models for Cumulative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2011-01-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive “family” of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects. PMID:22021317

Screening-level risk assessment applied to dredging of polluted sediments from Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

PubMed

Silveira, Ana Elisa F; Nascimento, Juliana R; Sabadini-Santos, Elisamara; Bidone, Edison D

2017-05-15

Guanabara Bay is characterized by predominant eutrophication and anoxic sediments with a mixture of pollutants. The risk prognosis associated with the dumping of its dredged sediments into the open ocean was addressed by our algorithm. Our algorithm could prioritize areas, characterize major processes related to dredging, measure the potential risk of sediments, and predict the effects of sediment mixing. The estimated risk of dredged sediment was >10-fold than that of ocean sediments. Among metals, mercury represented 50-90% of the total risk. The transfer of dredged material into the ocean or internal dumping in the bay requires a 1:10 dilution to mitigate the risk and bring the risk levels close to that in the EPA criteria, below which there is less likelihood of adverse effects to the biota, and a 1:100 dilution to maintain the original characteristics of the ocean disposal control area. Our algorithm indicator can be used in the design of both aquatic and continental disposal of dredged materials and their management. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sleep apnea and cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Floras, John S

2014-01-01

Sleep apnea is evident in approximately 10% of adults in the general population, but in certain cardiovascular diseases, and in particular those characterized by sodium and water retention, its prevalence can exceed 50%. Although sleep apnea is not as yet integrated into formal cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms, there is increasing awareness of its importance in the causation or promotion of hypertension, coronary artery disease, heart failure, atrial arrhythmias, and stroke, and thus, not surprisingly, as a predictor of premature cardiovascular death. Sleep apnea manifests as two principal phenotypes, both characterized by respiratory instability: obstructive (OSA), which arises when sleep-related withdrawal of respiratory drive to the upper airway dilator muscles is superimposed upon a narrow and highly compliant airway predisposed to collapse, and central (CSA), which occurs when the partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide falls below the apnea threshold, resulting in withdrawal of central drive to respiratory muscles. The present objectives are to: (1) review the epidemiology and patho-physiology of OSA and CSA, with particular emphasis on the role of renal sodium retention in initiating and promoting these processes, and on population studies that reveal the long-term consequences of untreated OSA and CSA; (2) illustrate mechanical, autonomic, chemical, and inflammatory mechanisms by which OSA and CSA can increase cardiovascular risk and event rates by initiating or promoting hypertension, atherosclerosis, coronary artery disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, and stroke; (3) highlight insights from randomized trials in which treating sleep apnea was the specific target of therapy; (4) emphasize the present lack of evidence that treating sleep apnea reduces cardiovascular risk and the current clinical equipoise concerning treatment of asymptomatic patients with sleep apnea; and (5) consider clinical implications and future directions of clinical

Space Radiation and Risks to Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huff, Janice L.

2014-01-01

The radiation environment in space poses significant challenges to human health and is a major concern for long duration manned space missions. Outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere, astronauts are exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays, whose physical characteristics are distinct from terrestrial sources of radiation such as x-rays and gamma-rays. Galactic cosmic rays consist of high energy and high mass nuclei as well as high energy protons; they impart unique biological damage as they traverse through tissue with impacts on human health that are largely unknown. The major health issues of concern are the risks of radiation carcinogenesis, acute and late decrements to the central nervous system, degenerative tissue effects such as cardiovascular disease, as well as possible acute radiation syndromes due to an unshielded exposure to a large solar particle event. The NASA Human Research Program's Space Radiation Program Element is focused on characterization and mitigation of these space radiation health risks along with understanding these risks in context of the other biological stressors found in the space environment. In this overview, we will provide a description of these health risks and the Element's research strategies to understand and mitigate these risks.

Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted

Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.

Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

2016-01-01

In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

Characterization of GM events by insert knowledge adapted re-sequencing approaches

PubMed Central

Yang, Litao; Wang, Congmao; Holst-Jensen, Arne; Morisset, Dany; Lin, Yongjun; Zhang, Dabing

2013-01-01

Detection methods and data from molecular characterization of genetically modified (GM) events are needed by stakeholders of public risk assessors and regulators. Generally, the molecular characteristics of GM events are incomprehensively revealed by current approaches and biased towards detecting transformation vector derived sequences. GM events are classified based on available knowledge of the sequences of vectors and inserts (insert knowledge). Herein we present three insert knowledge-adapted approaches for characterization GM events (TT51-1 and T1c-19 rice as examples) based on paired-end re-sequencing with the advantages of comprehensiveness, accuracy, and automation. The comprehensive molecular characteristics of two rice events were revealed with additional unintended insertions comparing with the results from PCR and Southern blotting. Comprehensive transgene characterization of TT51-1 and T1c-19 is shown to be independent of a priori knowledge of the insert and vector sequences employing the developed approaches. This provides an opportunity to identify and characterize also unknown GM events. PMID:24088728

Characterization of GM events by insert knowledge adapted re-sequencing approaches.

PubMed

Yang, Litao; Wang, Congmao; Holst-Jensen, Arne; Morisset, Dany; Lin, Yongjun; Zhang, Dabing

2013-10-03

Detection methods and data from molecular characterization of genetically modified (GM) events are needed by stakeholders of public risk assessors and regulators. Generally, the molecular characteristics of GM events are incomprehensively revealed by current approaches and biased towards detecting transformation vector derived sequences. GM events are classified based on available knowledge of the sequences of vectors and inserts (insert knowledge). Herein we present three insert knowledge-adapted approaches for characterization GM events (TT51-1 and T1c-19 rice as examples) based on paired-end re-sequencing with the advantages of comprehensiveness, accuracy, and automation. The comprehensive molecular characteristics of two rice events were revealed with additional unintended insertions comparing with the results from PCR and Southern blotting. Comprehensive transgene characterization of TT51-1 and T1c-19 is shown to be independent of a priori knowledge of the insert and vector sequences employing the developed approaches. This provides an opportunity to identify and characterize also unknown GM events.

Cardiovascular risk in Turner syndrome.

PubMed

Donato, Beatriz; Ferreira, Maria João

2018-06-01

Turner syndrome is a relatively common genetic disorder of female development, characterized by partial or complete absence of an X chromosome, with a variable clinical presentation. Congenital or acquired cardiovascular disease is highly prevalent and a major cause of early death in this syndrome. The most feared complication is aortic dissection, which can occur at a very young age and requires careful assessment of its risk factors. A systematic literature search identified sixty relevant publications. These were reviewed with regard to the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in women with Turner syndrome, especially in pregnancy. The most common congenital cardiovascular defects are presented and illustrated with appropriate iconography. The current recommendations regarding the screening and monitoring of cardiovascular disease in these patients are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Adaptive match filter based method for time vs. amplitude characterization of microvolt ECG T-wave alternans.

PubMed

Burattini, Laura; Zareba, Wojciech; Burattini, Roberto

2008-09-01

To develop a new method for non-invasive identification of patients prone to ventricular tachyarrhythmia and sudden cardiac death, an adaptive match-filter (AMF) was applied to detect and characterize T-wave alternans (TWA) in 200 coronary artery diseased (CAD) patients compared with 176 healthy (H) subjects. TWA was characterized in terms of duration (TWAD), amplitude (TWAA), and magnitude (TWAM, defined as the product of TWAD times TWAA). A criterion derived from these parameters, estimated over the H-population, allowed discrimination between a risk (TWA+) and a normality (NO TWA) zone in the TWAD-TWAA plane. To gain further ability to discriminate among different risk levels, the TWA+ zone was divided into four sub-zones respectively characterized by low duration and low amplitude (LDLA), low duration and high amplitude (LDHA), high duration and low amplitude (HDLA), and high duration and high amplitude (HDHA). With our methodology, 21 CAD-patients (10.5%) were identified as TWA+, 9 falling in the LDLA zone, 4 in the HDLA, 7 in the LDHA, and 1 in the HDHA. These results are in agreement with clinical expectations and pave the way to further clinical follow-up studies finalized to analyze pathophysiological implications and risk factors associated to each TWA+ zone.

Characterizing lake water quality, cyanotoxins, and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torbick, N.; Ziniti, B.; Stommel, E.; Linder, E.; Andrew, A.; Bradley, W.; Shi, X.

2016-12-01

Concern over toxins and public health threats resulting from Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (CHABs) have gained attention as reoccurring and seasonal blooms persist in many waters. Concordantly, climate change has been suggested to increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of CHAB events. Humans may be exposed to the cyanotoxins produced by cyanobacteria via the food chain, drinking water, recreational use of waterbodies and by aerosolization. Exposure to the cyanobacterial neurotoxin, β-N-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) that has been found in the brains of ALS patients is a hypothesized mechanism. The goals of this research initiative are to investigate spatiotemporal relationships between inland lake water quality and ALS across northern New England (NNE). Multiscale satellite remote sensing was integrated with in situ lake and toxin sampling to provide robust spatiotemporal exposure risk metrics characterizing CHAB. Semi-analytical, shape, and empirical algorithms were bldned together tp generate spatiotemporal measures of chl-a and PC with R2 ranging from 0.65-0.92 using withheld samples. Postmortem aerosolization analysis found 85% of high risk patients to express phycobillin in lung tissue using fluroesence microscopy. To scal eup to the region we employed complementing spatial statistics and a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model relationships between lake risk metrics and ALS case location across NNE. The eco-epidemiolgical modeling results show that on average poorer water quality conditions and higher measures of cyanobacteria are associated with increased odds of belonging to a normalized ALS hot spots and risk of ALS. This has broad societal impacts as the frequency, duration, and magnitude of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms are expanding and this work helps characterize lake ecosystem services and human health.

How to Assess the Biomechanical Risk Levels in Beekeeping.

PubMed

Maina, G; Rossi, F; Baracco, A

2016-01-01

Beekeepers are at particular risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal disorders, but many of the studies lack detailed exposure assessment. To evaluate the biomechanical overload exposure in a specific farming activity, a multitasking model has been developed through the characterization of 37 basic operational tasks typical of the beekeeping activity. The Occupational Repetitive Actions (OCRA) Checklist and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Lifting Index methodologies have been applied to these elementary tasks to evaluate the exposure, and the resulting risk indices have been time-weighted averaged. Finally, an easy access, computer-assisted toolkit has been developed to help the beekeepers in the biomechanical risk assessment process. The risk of biomechanical overload for the upper limbs ranges from acceptable (maintenance and recovery of woody material and honey packaging with dosing machine tasks) to high (distribution of the top supers) risk level. The risk for back injury is always borderline in women and increases with exposure time, whereas it ranges from acceptable to borderline in men. The definition of the biomechanical risk levels allows for planning of corrective actions aimed at preventing and reducing the risk of musculoskeletal disorders through engineering, administrative, and behavioral interventions. The methodology can be used for risk assessment in other mainly manual agricultural activities.

A comparative meta-genomic analysis of HPV strains: A step towards the design, synthesis and characterization of noval quenazoline derivative for antiviral activity.

PubMed

Dhanaraj, Premnath; Devadas, Akila; Muthiah, Indiraleka

2018-04-01

Epigenetic characterization studies have clearly shown that the association of genital Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) with cervical cancer is strong, independent of other risk factors, and consistent in several countries. Even though all the strains of Human Papilloma Virus can cause cancer, the high-risk strains can cause severe cancer in a human. The E6 and E7 protein are responsible for the carcinogenic property of HPV. Among these two proteins, the HPV E7 protein plays a major role in the viral life cycle by allowing the virus to replicate in differentiating epithelial cells. All the strains of HPV are variants (High risk and low risk). A computational analysis study is done to find which low-risk strain is showing most similarity with the high risk there by predicting that this low-risk strain can be converted to high-risk if a mutation occurs in future. Through mutation, a normal strain will get converted to low-risk and a low-risk to high-risk. So the mutations are important and it can affect the viruses to a greater extent because of their smaller size. In order to inhibit the expression of Type 11 low-risk strain a noval suppressor molecule is synthesized and characterized using UV, FTIR and NMR spectrometry. The suppressor molecule is a quinazoline derivative, as it can act as an anti-cancer agent to inhibit the expression of the E7 protein in Type 11 strain. The efficiency of binding of type 11 E7 protein with quinazoline derivative is calculated through docking studies using G-Score (Schrodinger). Thus proposing this noval suppressor molecule can be lead against cervical cancer caused by HPV Type 11 strain after further in-vitro and in vivo characterization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Relative Risk Model for Regional Groundwater Risk Assessment: A Case Study in the Lower Liaohe River Plain, China

PubMed Central

Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin

2015-01-01

Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk. PMID:26020518

On the Association between Sexual Attraction and Adolescent Risk Behavior Involvement: Examining Mediation and Moderation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busseri, Michael A.; Willoughby, Teena; Chalmers, Heather; Bogaert, Anthony F.

2008-01-01

On the basis of a large-scale survey of high-school youth, the authors compared adolescents reporting exclusively heterosexual, mostly heterosexual, bisexual, and predominately same-sex attraction based on high-risk involvement across a range of risk behaviors. Bisexual and same-sex attracted groups were characterized by heightened high-risk…

Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadovsky, Alexander V.; Bilimoria, Karl D.

2016-01-01

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.

2011-01-01

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Risk as a Resource - A New Paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gindorf, Thomas E.

1996-01-01

NASA must change dramatically because of the current United States federal budget climate. The American people and their elected officials have mandated a smaller, more efficient and effective government. For the past decade, NASA's budget had grown at or slightly above the rate of inflation. In that era, taking all steps to avoid the risk of failure was the rule. Spacecraft development was characterized by extensive analyses, numerous reviews, and multiple conservative tests. This methodology was consistent with the long available schedules for developing hardware and software for very large, billion dollar spacecraft. Those days are over. The time when every identifiable step was taken to avoid risk is being replaced by a new paradigm which manages risk in much the same way as other resources (schedule, performance, or dollars) are managed. While success is paramount to survival, it can no longer be bought with a large growing NASA budget.

Carbohydrate intake, glycemic index and prostate cancer risk

PubMed Central

Vidal, Adriana C.; Williams, Christina D.; Allott, Emma H.; Howard, Lauren E.; Grant, Delores J.; McPhail, Megan; Sourbeer, Katharine N.; Pao-Hwa, Lin; Boffetta, Paolo; Hoyo, Cathrine; Freedland, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Reported associations between dietary carbohydrate and prostate cancer (PC) risk are poorly characterized by race. METHODS We analyzed the association between carbohydrate intake, glycemic index (GI), and PC risk in a study of white (N=262) and black (N=168) veterans at the Durham VA Hospital. Cases were 156 men with biopsy-confirmed PC and controls (N=274) had a PSA test but were not recommended for biopsy. Diet was assessed before biopsy with a self-administered food frequency questionnaire. Logistic regression models were used to estimate PC risk. RESULTS In multivariable analyses, higher carbohydrate intake, measured as percent of energy from carbohydrates, was associated with reduced PC risk (3rd vs. 1st tertile, OR=0.41, 95%CI 0.21–0.81, p=0.010), though this only reached significance in white men (p-trend=0.029). GI was unrelated to PC risk among all men, but suggestively linked with reduced PC risk in white men (p-trend=0.066) and increased PC risk in black men (p-trend=0.172), however the associations were not significant. Fiber intake was not associated with PC risk (all p-trends >0.55). Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with reduced risk of high-grade (p-trend=0.016), but not low-grade PC (p-trend=0.593). CONCLUSIONS Higher carbohydrate intake may be associated with reduced risk of overall and high-grade PC. Future larger studies are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:25417840

Use of comparative genomics approaches to characterize interspecies differences in response to environmental chemicals: Challenges, opportunities, and research needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burgess-Herbert, Sarah L., E-mail: sarah.burgess@alum.mit.edu; Euling, Susan Y.

A critical challenge for environmental chemical risk assessment is the characterization and reduction of uncertainties introduced when extrapolating inferences from one species to another. The purpose of this article is to explore the challenges, opportunities, and research needs surrounding the issue of how genomics data and computational and systems level approaches can be applied to inform differences in response to environmental chemical exposure across species. We propose that the data, tools, and evolutionary framework of comparative genomics be adapted to inform interspecies differences in chemical mechanisms of action. We compare and contrast existing approaches, from disciplines as varied as evolutionarymore » biology, systems biology, mathematics, and computer science, that can be used, modified, and combined in new ways to discover and characterize interspecies differences in chemical mechanism of action which, in turn, can be explored for application to risk assessment. We consider how genetic, protein, pathway, and network information can be interrogated from an evolutionary biology perspective to effectively characterize variations in biological processes of toxicological relevance among organisms. We conclude that comparative genomics approaches show promise for characterizing interspecies differences in mechanisms of action, and further, for improving our understanding of the uncertainties inherent in extrapolating inferences across species in both ecological and human health risk assessment. To achieve long-term relevance and consistent use in environmental chemical risk assessment, improved bioinformatics tools, computational methods robust to data gaps, and quantitative approaches for conducting extrapolations across species are critically needed. Specific areas ripe for research to address these needs are recommended.« less

Interactions between inflammation, sex steroids, and Alzheimer’s disease risk factors

PubMed Central

Uchoa, Mariana F.; Moser, V. Alexandra; Pike, Christian J.

2016-01-01

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an age-related neurodegenerative disorder for which there are no effective strategies to prevent or slow its progression. Because AD is multifactorial, recent research has focused on understanding interactions among the numerous risk factors and mechanisms underlying the disease. One mechanism through which several risk factors may be acting is inflammation. AD is characterized by chronic inflammation that is observed before clinical onset of dementia. Several genetic and environmental risk factors for AD increase inflammation, including apolipoprotein E4, obesity, and air pollution. Additionally, sex steroid hormones appear to contribute to AD risk, with age-related losses of estrogens in women and androgens in men associated with increased risk. Importantly, sex steroid hormones have anti-inflammatory actions and can interact with several other AD risk factors. This review examines the individual and interactive roles of inflammation and sex steroid hormones in AD, as well as their relationships with the AD risk factors apolipoprotein E4, obesity, and air pollution. PMID:27651175

Augmenting the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks.

PubMed

Susel, Irving; Lasley, Trace; Montezemolo, Mark; Piper, Joel

2016-01-01

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) characterized and prioritized the physical cross-border threats and hazards to the nation stemming from terrorism, market-driven illicit flows of people and goods (illegal immigration, narcotics, funds, counterfeits, and weaponry), and other nonmarket concerns (movement of diseases, pests, and invasive species). These threats and hazards pose a wide diversity of consequences with very different combinations of magnitudes and likelihoods, making it very challenging to prioritize them. This article presents the approach that was used at DHS to arrive at a consensus regarding the threats and hazards that stand out from the rest based on the overall risk they pose. Due to time constraints for the decision analysis, it was not feasible to apply multiattribute methodologies like multiattribute utility theory or the analytic hierarchy process. Using a holistic approach was considered, such as the deliberative method for ranking risks first published in this journal. However, an ordinal ranking alone does not indicate relative or absolute magnitude differences among the risks. Therefore, the use of the deliberative method for ranking risks is not sufficient for deciding whether there is a material difference between the top-ranked and bottom-ranked risks, let alone deciding what the stand-out risks are. To address this limitation of ordinal rankings, the deliberative method for ranking risks was augmented by adding an additional step to transform the ordinal ranking into a ratio scale ranking. This additional step enabled the selection of stand-out risks to help prioritize further analysis. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

PubMed Central

Chahine, Teresa; Schultz, Bradley D.; Zartarian, Valerie G.; Xue, Jianping; Subramanian, SV; Levy, Jonathan I.

2011-01-01

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors. PMID:22016710

Genomic Changes in Normal Breast Tissue in Women at Normal Risk or at High Risk for Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Danforth, David N.

2016-01-01

Sporadic breast cancer develops through the accumulation of molecular abnormalities in normal breast tissue, resulting from exposure to estrogens and other carcinogens beginning at adolescence and continuing throughout life. These molecular changes may take a variety of forms, including numerical and structural chromosomal abnormalities, epigenetic changes, and gene expression alterations. To characterize these abnormalities, a review of the literature has been conducted to define the molecular changes in each of the above major genomic categories in normal breast tissue considered to be either at normal risk or at high risk for sporadic breast cancer. This review indicates that normal risk breast tissues (such as reduction mammoplasty) contain evidence of early breast carcinogenesis including loss of heterozygosity, DNA methylation of tumor suppressor and other genes, and telomere shortening. In normal tissues at high risk for breast cancer (such as normal breast tissue adjacent to breast cancer or the contralateral breast), these changes persist, and are increased and accompanied by aneuploidy, increased genomic instability, a wide range of gene expression differences, development of large cancerized fields, and increased proliferation. These changes are consistent with early and long-standing exposure to carcinogens, especially estrogens. A model for the breast carcinogenic pathway in normal risk and high-risk breast tissues is proposed. These findings should clarify our understanding of breast carcinogenesis in normal breast tissue and promote development of improved methods for risk assessment and breast cancer prevention in women. PMID:27559297

Characterizing Longitude-Dependent Orbital Debris Congestion in the Geosynchronous Orbit Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Paul V.

The geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is a unique commodity of the satellite industry that is becoming increasingly contaminated with orbital debris, but is heavily populated with high-value assets from the civil, commercial, and defense sectors. The GEO arena is home to hundreds of communications, data transmission, and intelligence satellites collectively insured for an estimated 18.3 billion USD. As the lack of natural cleansing mechanisms at the GEO altitude renders the lifetimes of GEO debris essentially infinite, conjunction and risk assessment must be performed to safeguard operational assets from debris collisions. In this thesis, longitude-dependent debris congestion is characterized by predicting the number of near-miss events per day for every longitude slot at GEO, using custom debris propagation tools and a torus intersection metric. Near-miss events with the present-day debris population are assigned risk levels based on GEO-relative position and speed, and this risk information is used to prioritize the population for debris removal target selection. Long-term projections of debris growth under nominal launch traffic, mitigation practices, and fragmentation events are also discussed, and latitudinal synchronization of the GEO debris population is explained via node variations arising from luni-solar gravity. In addition to characterizing localized debris congestion in the GEO ring, this thesis further investigates the conjunction risk to operational satellites or debris removal systems applying low-thrust propulsion to raise orbit altitude at end-of-life to a super-synchronous disposal orbit. Conjunction risks as a function of thrust level, miss distance, longitude, and semi-major axis are evaluated, and a guidance method for evading conjuncting debris with continuous thrust by means of a thrust heading change via single-shooting is developed.

Risk-taking, peer-influence and child maltreatment: a neurocognitive investigation

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Ferdinand; Puetz, Vanessa B; Viding, Essi; Sethi, Arjun; Palmer, Amy

2018-01-01

Abstract Maltreatment is associated with increased risk of a range of psychiatric disorders, many of which are characterized by altered risk-taking propensity. Currently, little is known about the neural correlates of risk-taking in children exposed to maltreatment, nor whether their risk-taking is atypically modulated by peer influence. Seventy-five 10- to 14-year-old children [maltreated (MT) group: N = 41; non-maltreated Group (NMT): N = 34] performed a Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), under three different peer influence conditions: while alone, while being observed by a peer and while being encouraged by a peer to take risks. The MT group engaged in less risk-taking irrespective of peer influence. There was no differential effect of peer influence on risk-taking behaviour across groups. At the neural level, the right anterior insula (rAI) exhibited altered risk sensitivity across conditions in the MT group. Across groups and conditions, rAI risk sensitivity was negatively associated with risk-taking and within the MT group greater rAI risk sensitivity was related to more anxiety symptoms. These findings suggest that children with a history of maltreatment show reduced risk-taking but typical responses to peer influence. Abnormal rAI functioning contributes to the pattern of reduced risk-taking and may predispose children exposed to maltreatment to develop future psychopathology. PMID:29069467

Risk-taking, peer-influence and child maltreatment: a neurocognitive investigation.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Ferdinand; Puetz, Vanessa B; Viding, Essi; Sethi, Arjun; Palmer, Amy; McCrory, Eamon J

2018-01-01

Maltreatment is associated with increased risk of a range of psychiatric disorders, many of which are characterized by altered risk-taking propensity. Currently, little is known about the neural correlates of risk-taking in children exposed to maltreatment, nor whether their risk-taking is atypically modulated by peer influence. Seventy-five 10- to 14-year-old children [maltreated (MT) group: N = 41; non-maltreated Group (NMT): N = 34] performed a Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), under three different peer influence conditions: while alone, while being observed by a peer and while being encouraged by a peer to take risks. The MT group engaged in less risk-taking irrespective of peer influence. There was no differential effect of peer influence on risk-taking behaviour across groups. At the neural level, the right anterior insula (rAI) exhibited altered risk sensitivity across conditions in the MT group. Across groups and conditions, rAI risk sensitivity was negatively associated with risk-taking and within the MT group greater rAI risk sensitivity was related to more anxiety symptoms. These findings suggest that children with a history of maltreatment show reduced risk-taking but typical responses to peer influence. Abnormal rAI functioning contributes to the pattern of reduced risk-taking and may predispose children exposed to maltreatment to develop future psychopathology. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

Caresoil: A multidisciplinar Project to characterize, remediate, monitor and evaluate the risk of contaminated soils in Madrid (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Martín, Alfonso; Antón, Loreto; Granja, Jose Luis; Villarroya, Fermín; Montero, Esperanza; Rodríguez, Vanesa

2016-04-01

Soil contamination can come from diffuse sources (air deposition, agriculture, etc.) or local sources, these last being related to anthropogenic activities that are potentially soil contaminating activities. According to data from the EU, in Spain, and particularly for the Autonomous Community of Madrid, it can be considered that heavy metals, toxic organic compounds (including Non Aqueous Phases Liquids, NAPLs) and combinations of both are the main problem of point sources of soil contamination in our community. The five aspects that will be applied in Caresoil Program (S2013/MAE-2739) in the analysis and remediation of a local soil contamination are: 1) the location of the source of contamination and characterization of soil and aquifer concerned, 2) evaluation of the dispersion of the plume, 3) application of effective remediation techniques, 4) monitoring the evolution of the contaminated soil and 5) risk analysis throughout this process. These aspects involve advanced technologies (hydrogeology, geophysics, geochemistry,...) that require new developing of knowledge, being necessary the contribution of several researching groups specialized in the fields previously cited, as they are those integrating CARESOIL Program. Actually two cases concerning hydrocarbon spills, as representative examples of soil local contamination in Madrid area, are being studied. The first is being remediated and we are monitoring this process to evaluate its effectiveness. In the second location we are defining the extent of contamination in soil and aquifer to define the most effective remediation technique.

The association of health risks with on-the-job productivity.

PubMed

Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Conti, Daniel J; Schultz, Alyssa B; Pransky, Glenn; Edington, Dee W

2005-08-01

Decreased on-the-job productivity represents a large yet poorly characterized indirect cost to employers. We studied the impact of employee health risk factors on self-reported worker productivity (presenteeism). Using a brief version of the Work Limitation Questionnaire incorporated into a Health Risk Appraisal, 28,375 employees of a national company responded to the survey. The association between health risks and work limitation and each of the four domains was examined. Percentage of lost productivity also was estimated. Ten of 12 health risk factors studied were significantly associated with self-reported work limitations. The strength of the associations varied between risks and the four domains of work limitation. Perception-related risk factors such as life dissatisfaction, job dissatisfaction, poor health, and stress showed the greatest association with presenteeism. As the number of self-reported health risk factors increased, so did the percentage of employees reporting work limitations. Each additional risk factor was associated with 2.4% excess productivity reduction. Medium and high-risk individuals were 6.2% and 12.2% less productive than low-risk individuals, respectively. The annual cost of lost productivity in this corporation was estimated at between 99Mdollars and 185Mdollars or between 1392dollars and 2592dollars per employee. Health risk factors represent additional causes of lost productivity.

Critical pathogenic steps to high risk Helicobacter pylori gastritis and gastric carcinogenesis

PubMed Central

Lee, Inchul

2014-01-01

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) gastritis may progress to high risk gastropathy and cancer. However, the pathological progression has not been characterized in detail. H. pylori induce persistent inflammatory infiltration. Neutrophils are unique in that they directly infiltrate into foveolar epithelium aiming the proliferative zone specifically. Neutrophilic proliferative zone foveolitis is a critical pathogenic step in H. pylori gastritis inducing intensive epithelial damage. Epithelial cells carrying accumulated genomic damage and mutations show the Malgun (clear) cell change, characterized by large clear nucleus and prominent nucleolus. Malgun cells further undergo atypical changes, showing nuclear folding, coarse chromatin, and multiple nucleoli. The atypical Malgun cell (AMC) change is a novel premalignant condition in high risk gastropathy, which may progress and undergo malignant transformation directly. The pathobiological significance of AMC in gastric carcinogenesis is reviewed. A new diagnosis system of gastritis is proposed based on the critical pathologic steps classifying low and high risk gastritis for separate treatment modality. It is suggested that the regulation of H. pylori-induced neutrophilic foveolitis might be a future therapeutic goal replacing bactericidal antibiotics approach. PMID:24914362

Critical pathogenic steps to high risk Helicobacter pylori gastritis and gastric carcinogenesis.

PubMed

Lee, Inchul

2014-06-07

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) gastritis may progress to high risk gastropathy and cancer. However, the pathological progression has not been characterized in detail. H. pylori induce persistent inflammatory infiltration. Neutrophils are unique in that they directly infiltrate into foveolar epithelium aiming the proliferative zone specifically. Neutrophilic proliferative zone foveolitis is a critical pathogenic step in H. pylori gastritis inducing intensive epithelial damage. Epithelial cells carrying accumulated genomic damage and mutations show the Malgun (clear) cell change, characterized by large clear nucleus and prominent nucleolus. Malgun cells further undergo atypical changes, showing nuclear folding, coarse chromatin, and multiple nucleoli. The atypical Malgun cell (AMC) change is a novel premalignant condition in high risk gastropathy, which may progress and undergo malignant transformation directly. The pathobiological significance of AMC in gastric carcinogenesis is reviewed. A new diagnosis system of gastritis is proposed based on the critical pathologic steps classifying low and high risk gastritis for separate treatment modality. It is suggested that the regulation of H. pylori-induced neutrophilic foveolitis might be a future therapeutic goal replacing bactericidal antibiotics approach.

GAB2 Alleles Modify Alzheimer’s Risk in APOE ε4 Carriers

PubMed Central

Reiman, Eric M.; Webster, Jennifer A.; Myers, Amanda J.; Hardy, John; Dunckley, Travis; Zismann, Victoria L.; Joshipura, Keta D.; Pearson, John V.; Hu-Lince, Diane; Huentelman, Matthew J.; Craig, David W.; Coon, Keith D.; Liang, Winnie S.; Herbert, RiLee H.; Beach, Thomas; Rohrer, Kristen C.; Zhao, Alice S.; Leung, Doris; Bryden, Leslie; Marlowe, Lauren; Kaleem, Mona; Mastroeni, Diego; Grover, Andrew; Heward, Christopher B.; Ravid, Rivka; Rogers, Joseph; Hutton, Michael L.; Melquist, Stacey; Petersen, Ron C.; Alexander, Gene E.; Caselli, Richard J.; Kukull, Walter; Papassotiropoulos, Andreas; Stephan, Dietrich A.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY The apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele is the best established genetic risk factor for late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). We conducted genome-wide surveys of 502,627 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to characterize and confirm other LOAD susceptibility genes. In ε4 carriers from neuropathologically verified discovery, neuropathologically verified replication, and clinically characterized replication cohorts of 1411 cases and controls, LOAD was associated with six SNPs from the GRB-associated binding protein 2 (GAB2) gene and a common haplotype encompassing the entire GAB2 gene. SNP rs2373115 (p = 9 × 10−11) was associated with an odds ratio of 4.06 (confidence interval 2.81–14.69), which interacts with APOE ε4 to further modify risk. GAB2 was overexpressed in pathologically vulnerable neurons; the Gab2 protein was detected in neurons, tangle-bearing neurons, and dystrophic neuritis; and interference with GAB2 gene expression increased tau phosphorylation. Our findings suggest that GAB2 modifies LOAD risk in APOE ε4 carriers and influences Alzheimer’s neuropathology. PMID:17553421

Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1993-09-01

This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State.more » The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.« less

Identification and Evaluation of Integration and Cross Cutting Issues Across HRP Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, S. L.; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

The HRP Integrated Research Plan contains the research plans for the 32 risks requiring research to characterize and mitigate. These risks to human health and performance in spaceflight are identified by evidence and each one focuses on a single aspect of human physiology or performance. They are further categorized by aspects of the spaceflight environment, such as altered gravity or space radiation, that that play a major role in their likelihood and consequence. From its inception the "integrate" in the Research Plan has denoted the integrated nature of risks to human health and performance, the connectedness of physiological systems within the human body regardless of the spaceflight environment, and the integrated response of the human body to the spaceflight environment. Common characteristics of the spaceflight environment include altered gravity, atmospheres and light/dark cycles, space radiation, isolation, noise, and periods of high or low workload. Long term exposure to this unique environment produces a suite of physiological effects such as stress; vision, neurocognitive and anthropometric changes; circadian misalignment; fluid shifts, deconditioning; immune dysregulation; and altered nutritional requirements. Matrix diagraming was used to systematically identify, analyze and rate the many-to-many relationships between environmental characteristics and the suite of physiological effects. It was also to identify patterns in the relationships of common physiological effects to each other. Analyses of patterns or relationships in these diagrams help to identify issues that cut across multiple risks. Cross cutting issues benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that synthesizes concepts or data from two or more disciplines to identify and characterize risk factors or develop countermeasures relevant to multiple risks. They also help to illuminate possible problem areas that may arise when a countermeasure impacts risks other than those which it was

Risk management for food and beverage industry using Australia/New Zealand 4360 Standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristina, S.; Wijaya, B. M.

2017-12-01

This research aims to identifying, measuring and establishing risk in food and beverage industry. The risk management is implemented by referring to Australia/New Zealand 4360 Standard which has four phases such as problem formulation, risk analysis, risk characterization, and risk management. The implementation of risk management is done by case study at Back Alley Café. Based on the risk identification result, there are 59 risks were found in Back Alley Café. The risk identification is conducted based on observation and interview with the café manager who understand the condition of Back Alley Café properly. Based on the assessment of impact and probability, the risk mapping produced four risks at extreme level, 16 risks at high level, 24 risks at medium level, and 18 risks at low level. The strategy was designed as the risk mitigation after the risk mapping for the extreme and high level. The strategy which is given as the prevention or treatment of risk in Back Alley Café is divided into three. There are reducing the risk, sharing the risk and accepting the risk. The strategy is then implemented for each relevant activities.

Characterization of Mercury and Its Risk in Nelson’s, Saltmarsh, and Seaside Sparrows

PubMed Central

Winder, Virginia L.

2012-01-01

Background Nelson’s, Saltmarsh, and Seaside Sparrows (Ammodramus nelsoni, A. caudacutus, and A. maritimus, respectively) depend on marsh and wetland habitats – ecosystems in which mercury (Hg) bioavailability is notoriously high. The purpose of the present study was to address the potential impact of Hg on these species using first primary and breast feathers as non-destructive biomonitoring tools. Methods and Principal Findings Feathers were sampled from wintering sparrows in North Carolina salt marshes (2006–2010). Feather Hg data were used in three risk analysis components (1) Threshold Component – examined feather Hg with regard to published negative effects thresholds; (2) Hg Dynamics Component – examined Hg in sparrows captured multiple times; and (3) Capture Frequency and Survival Component – tested for links between Hg and return frequency and survival. Threshold Component analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in 42–77% of sampled individuals (breast feather n = 879; first primary feather n = 663) were within the range associated with decreased reproduction in other avian species. Hg Dynamics Component analyses demonstrated that Hg increased between first and second captures for Nelson’s (n = 9) and Seaside Sparrows (n = 23). Capture Frequency and Survival Component analyses detected a negative relationship between Hg and capture frequency in Nelson’s Sparrows (n = 315). However, MARK models detected no effect of Hg on apparent survival in any species. Conclusion and Significance This study indicates that current Hg exposure places a considerable proportion of each population at risk. In particular, 52% of all sampled Saltmarsh Sparrows exhibited first primary feather Hg concentrations exceeding those associated with a >60% reduction in reproductive success in other species. This study reports evidence for net annual bioaccumulation, indicating an increased risk in older individuals. These data can be used to inform

Characterizing Wildfire Regimes and Risk in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, B. D.; Millington, J. D.; Perry, G. L.

2004-12-01

Over the last decade, high profile wildfires have resulted in numerous fatalities and loss of infrastructure. Wildfires also have a significant impact on climate and ecosystems, with recent authors emphasizing the need for regional-level examinations of wildfire-regime dynamics and change, and the factors driving them. With implications for hazard management, climate studies, and ecosystem research, there is therefore significant interest in appropriate analysis of historical wildfire databases. Insightful studies using wildfire database statistics exist, but are often hampered by the low spatial and/or temporal resolution of their datasets. In this paper, we use a high-resolution dataset consisting of 88,855 USFS wildfires over the time period 1970--2000, and consider wildfire occurrence across the conterminous USA as a function of ecoregion (land units classified by climate, vegetation, and topography), ignition source (anthropogenic vs. lightning), and decade (1970--1979, 1980--1989, 1990--1999). We find that for the conterminous USA (a) wildfires exhibit robust frequency-area power-law behavior in 17 different ecoregions, (b) normalized power-law exponents may be used to compare the scaling of wildfire burned areas between regions, (c) power-law exponents change systematically from east to west, (d) wildfires in 75% of the conterminous USA (particularly the east) have higher power-law exponents for anthropogenic vs. lightning ignition sources, and (e) recurrence intervals for wildfires of a given burned area or larger for each ecoregion can be assessed, allowing for the classification of wildfire regimes for probabilistic hazard estimation in the same vein as is now used for earthquakes. By examining wildfire statistics in a spatially and temporally explicit manner, we are able to present resultant wildfire regime summary statistics and conclusions, along with a probabilistic hazard assessment of wildfire risk at the ecoregion division level across the

Community-Engaged Modeling of Geographic and Demographic Patterns of Multiple Public Health Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Basra, Komal; Fabian, M. Patricia; Holberger, Raymond R.; French, Robert

2017-01-01

Many health risk factors are intervention targets within communities, but information regarding high-risk subpopulations is rarely available at a geographic resolution that is relevant for community-scale interventions. Researchers and community partners in New Bedford, Massachusetts (USA) collaboratively identified high-priority behaviors and health outcomes of interest available in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). We developed multivariable regression models from the BRFSS explaining variability in exercise, fruit and vegetable consumption, body mass index, and diabetes prevalence as a function of demographic and behavioral characteristics, and linked these models with population microdata developed using spatial microsimulation to characterize high-risk populations and locations. Individuals with lower income and educational attainment had lower rates of multiple health-promoting behaviors (e.g., fruit and vegetable consumption and exercise) and higher rates of self-reported diabetes. Our models in combination with the simulated population microdata identified census tracts with an elevated percentage of high-risk subpopulations, information community partners can use to prioritize funding and intervention programs. Multi-stressor modeling using data from public databases and microsimulation methods for characterizing high-resolution spatial patterns of population attributes, coupled with strong community partner engagement, can provide significant insight for intervention. Our methodology is transferrable to other communities. PMID:28684710

Dietary screening tool identifies nutritional risk in older adults123

PubMed Central

Miller, Paige E; Mitchell, Diane C; Hartman, Terryl J; Lawrence, Frank R; Sempos, Christopher T; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen

2009-01-01

Background: No rapid methods exist for screening overall dietary intakes in older adults. Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a scoring system for a diet screening tool to identify nutritional risk in community-dwelling older adults. Design: This cross-sectional study in older adults (n = 204) who reside in rural areas examined nutrition status by using an in-person interview, biochemical measures, and four 24-h recalls that included the use of dietary supplements. Results: The dietary screening tool was able to characterize 3 levels of nutritional risk: at risk, possible risk, and not at risk. Individuals classified as at nutritional risk had significantly lower indicators of diet quality (Healthy Eating Index and Mean Adequacy Ratio) and intakes of protein, most micronutrients, dietary fiber, fruit, and vegetables. The at-risk group had higher intakes of fats and oils and refined grains. The at-risk group also had the lowest serum vitamin B-12, folate, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein, and zeaxanthin concentrations. The not-at-nutritional-risk group had significantly higher lycopene and β-carotene and lower homocysteine and methylmalonic acid concentrations. Conclusion: The dietary screening tool is a simple and practical tool that can help to detect nutritional risk in older adults. PMID:19458013

Genetic and functional characterization of PCSK1.

PubMed

Choquet, Hélène; Stijnen, Pieter; Creemers, John W M

2011-01-01

PC1/3 is a neuroendocrine-specific member of the mammalian subtilisin-like proprotein convertase family. This seven-member family is involved in the endoproteolytic cleavage of a large number of precursor proteins including prohormones, proneuropeptides, zymogens, and proreceptors. PC1/3 is synthesized as a zymogen, proPC1/3, and its propeptide is rapidly and autocatalytically cleaved in the endoplasmic reticulum. The mature protein is sorted and stored in dense-core secretory vesicles, together with its substrates. Compound-inactivating mutations in the PCSK1 gene, which encodes PC1/3, cause monogenic obesity. Furthermore, the contribution of two common nonsynonymous variants in PCSK1 to polygenic obesity risk has recently been established. Additional rare variants have been identified in non-consanguineous extremely obese Europeans but functional characterization has not yet been described. Sequencing efforts of larger cohorts of obese patients might reveal more variants conferring risk of obesity.

An overview of the characterization of occupational exposure to nanoaerosols in workplaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellano, Paola; Ferrante, Riccardo; Curini, Roberta; Canepari, Silvia

2009-05-01

Currently, there is a lack of standardized sampling and metric methods that can be applied to measure the level of exposure to nanosized aerosols. Therefore, any attempt to characterize exposure to nanoparticles (NP) in a workplace must involve a multifaceted approach characterized by different sampling and analytical techniques to measure all relevant characteristics of NP exposure. Furthermore, as NP aerosols are always complex mixtures of multiple origins, sampling and analytical methods need to be improved to selectively evaluate the apportionment from specific sources to the final nanomaterials. An open question at the world's level is how to relate specific toxic effects of NP with one or more among several different parameters (such as particle size, mass, composition, surface area, number concentration, aggregation or agglomeration state, water solubility and surface chemistry). As the evaluation of occupational exposure to NP in workplaces needs dimensional and chemical characterization, the main problem is the choice of the sampling and dimensional separation techniques. Therefore a convenient approach to allow a satisfactory risk assessment could be the contemporary use of different sampling and measuring techniques for particles with known toxicity in selected workplaces. Despite the lack of specific NP exposure limit values, exposure metrics, appropriate to nanoaerosols, are discussed in the Technical Report ISO/TR 27628:2007 with the aim to enable occupational hygienists to characterize and monitor nanoaerosols in workplaces. Moreover, NIOSH has developed the Document Approaches to Safe Nanotechnology (intended to be an information exchange with NIOSH) in order to address current and future research needs to understanding the potential risks that nanotechnology may have to workers.

Characterizing the burden of occupational injury and disease.

PubMed

Schulte, Paul A

2005-06-01

To review the literature on the burden of occupational disease and injury and to provide a comprehensive characterization of the burden. The scientific and governmental literature from 1990 to the present was searched and evaluated. Thirty-eight studies illustrative of the burden of occupational disease were reviewed for findings, methodology, strengths, and limitations. Recent U.S. estimates of occupational mortality and morbidity include approximately 55,000 deaths (eighth leading cause) and 3.8 million disabling injuries per year, respectively. Comprehensive estimates of U.S. costs related to these burdens range between dollar 128 billion and dollar 155 billion per year. Despite these significant indicators, occupational morbidity, mortality, and risks are not well characterized in comparative burden assessments. The magnitude of occupational disease and injury burden is significant but underestimated. There is a need for an integrated approach to address these underestimates.

Generalized metabolic bone disease and fracture risk in Rothmund-Thomson syndrome

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rothmund-Thomson syndrome (RTS) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder characterized by poikiloderma, small stature, sparse hair, skeletal abnormalities, increased risk of osteosarcoma, and decreased bone mass. To date, there has not been a comprehensive evaluation of the prevalence and extent of me...

WEIGHING THE EVIDENCE OF ECOLOGICAL RISK OF CHEMICAL CONTAMINATION IN THE ESTUARINE ENVIRONMENT ADJACENT TO THE PORTSMOUTH NAVAL SHIPYARD, KITTERY, MAINE, USA

EPA Science Inventory

In characterizing ecological risks, considerable consensus building and professional judgments are required to develop conclusions about risk. This is because how to evaluate all the factors that determine ecological risk is not well defined and is subject to interpretation. Here...

Pulmonary nodule characterization, including computer analysis and quantitative features.

PubMed

Bartholmai, Brian J; Koo, Chi Wan; Johnson, Geoffrey B; White, Darin B; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Moynagh, Michael R; Lindell, Rebecca M; Hartman, Thomas E

2015-03-01

Pulmonary nodules are commonly detected in computed tomography (CT) chest screening of a high-risk population. The specific visual or quantitative features on CT or other modalities can be used to characterize the likelihood that a nodule is benign or malignant. Visual features on CT such as size, attenuation, location, morphology, edge characteristics, and other distinctive "signs" can be highly suggestive of a specific diagnosis and, in general, be used to determine the probability that a specific nodule is benign or malignant. Change in size, attenuation, and morphology on serial follow-up CT, or features on other modalities such as nuclear medicine studies or MRI, can also contribute to the characterization of lung nodules. Imaging analytics can objectively and reproducibly quantify nodule features on CT, nuclear medicine, and magnetic resonance imaging. Some quantitative techniques show great promise in helping to differentiate benign from malignant lesions or to stratify the risk of aggressive versus indolent neoplasm. In this article, we (1) summarize the visual characteristics, descriptors, and signs that may be helpful in management of nodules identified on screening CT, (2) discuss current quantitative and multimodality techniques that aid in the differentiation of nodules, and (3) highlight the power, pitfalls, and limitations of these various techniques.

Risk-Sensitive Control of Pure Jump Process on Countable Space with Near Monotone Cost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suresh Kumar, K., E-mail: suresh@math.iitb.ac.in; Pal, Chandan, E-mail: cpal@math.iitb.ac.in

2013-12-15

In this article, we study risk-sensitive control problem with controlled continuous time pure jump process on a countable space as state dynamics. We prove multiplicative dynamic programming principle, elliptic and parabolic Harnack’s inequalities. Using the multiplicative dynamic programing principle and the Harnack’s inequalities, we prove the existence and a characterization of optimal risk-sensitive control under the near monotone condition.

Smoking cessation and the risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes predicted from established risk scores: results of the Cardiovascular Risk Assessment among Smokers in Primary Care in Europe (CV-ASPIRE) study.

PubMed

Mallaina, Pablo; Lionis, Christos; Rol, Hugo; Imperiali, Renzo; Burgess, Andrew; Nixon, Mark; Malvestiti, Franco Mondello

2013-04-18

Smoking is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This multicenter, cross-sectional survey was designed to estimate the cardiovascular (CV) risk attributable to smoking using risk assessment tools, to better understand patient behaviors and characteristics related to smoking, and characterize physician practice patterns. 1,439 smokers were recruited from Europe during 2011. Smokers were ≥40 years old, smoked > 10 cigarettes/day and had recent measurements on blood pressure and lipids. CV risk was calculated using the SCORE system, Framingham risk equations, and Progetto CUORE model. The CV risk attributable to smoking was evaluated using a simulated control (hypothetical non-smoker) with identical characteristics as the enrolled smoker. Risks assessed included CV mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD and hard CHD. Demographics, comorbidities, primary reasons for consultation, behavior towards previous attempts to quit, and interest in smoking cessation was assessed. Dependence on nicotine was evaluated using the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence. GP practice patterns were assessed through a questionnaire. The prediction models consistently demonstrated a high CV risk attributable to smoking. For instance, the SCORE model demonstrated that this study population of smokers have a 100% increased probability of death due to cardiovascular disease in the next 10-years compared to non-smokers. A considerable amount of patients would like to hear from their GP about the different alternatives available to support their quitting attempt. The findings of this study reinforce the importance of smoking as a significant predictor of long-term cardiovascular events. One of the best gains in health could be obtained by tackling the most important modifiable risk factors; these results suggest smoking is among the most important.

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

PubMed

Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

2018-06-01

Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

PubMed