Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

2018-01-01

The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

AHP for Risk Management Based on Expected Utility Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, Rumiko; Miyagi, Hayao

This paper presents a model of decision-making considering the risk assessment. The conventional evaluation in AHP is considered to be a kind of utility. When dealing with the risk, however, it is necessary to consider the probability of damage. In order to take risk into decision-making problem, we construct AHP based on expected utility. The risk is considered as a related element of criterion rather than criterion itself. The expected utility is integrated, considering that satisfaction is positive utility and damage by risk is negative utility. Then, evaluation in AHP is executed using the expected utility.

Presenting health risk information in different formats: the effect on participants' cognitive and emotional evaluation and decisions.

PubMed

Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij

2008-12-01

Effective communication of health risks plays an important role in enabling patients to make adequate decisions. There is little--though contradictory--evidence to indicate which format is most effective for communicating risks, and which risk format is preferred by counselees. In an experiment, subjects were presented health scenarios and risk information in different formats (percentages, frequencies, and population figures) and asked to evaluate the risks and make a decision based on these. Different risk formats had different effects on respondents' evaluation of the health risks presented. Contrary to our expectation, population figures were not evaluated as being the easiest format for all decision problems. Population figures were shown to have the biggest affective impact, and risks presented as population figures were also evaluated as significantly greater than the risks presented in other formats. The format of the presented risks influenced their decision in only one out of four decision-making situations, although in a second situation there was a similar trend. This study suggests that the risk format plays a role in the decision-making process, although it remains unclear which format is the most effective in terms of understanding. More experimental studies based on a theoretical analysis of the factors that promote effective risk communication are needed in the general population as well as in clinical settings with patients actually experiencing the risks and making the decisions.

24 CFR 35.815 - Evaluation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD... Multifamily Property § 35.815 Evaluation. HUD shall conduct a risk assessment and a lead-based paint... 15, 2000, the lead-based paint inspection and risk assessment shall be conducted no later than...

Approaches for the Application of Physiologically Based ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA released the final report, Approaches for the Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models and Supporting Data in Risk Assessment as announced in a September 22 2006 Federal Register Notice.This final report addresses the application and evaluation of PBPK models for risk assessment purposes. These models represent an important class of dosimetry models that are useful for predicting internal dose at target organs for risk assessment applications. EPA is releasing a final report describing the evaluation and applications of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in health risk assessment. This was announced in the September 22 2006 Federal Register Notice.

FRAT-up, a Web-based fall-risk assessment tool for elderly people living in the community.

PubMed

Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chesani, Federico; Chiari, Lorenzo

2015-02-18

About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject's fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration. FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR).

The discovery of drug-induced illness.

PubMed

Jick, H

1977-03-03

The increased use of drugs (and the concurrent increased risks of drug-induced illness) require definition of relevant research areas and strategy. For established marketed drugs, research needs depend on the magnitudes of risk of an illness from a drug and the base-line risk. With the drug risk high and the base-line risk low, the problem surfaces in premarketing studies or through the epidemic that develops after marketing. If the drug adds slightly to a high base-line risk, the effect is undetectable. When both risks are low, adverse effects can be discovered by chance, but systematic case-referent studies can speed discovery. If both risks are high, clinical trials and nonexperimental studies may be used. With both risks intermediate, systematic evaluations, especially case-referent studies are needed. Newly marketed drugs should be routinely evaluated through compulsory registration and follow-up study of the earliest users.

A Knowledge-Base for a Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System.

PubMed

Vinarti, Retno; Hederman, Lucy

2018-01-01

We present a knowledge-base to represent collated infectious disease risk (IDR) knowledge. The knowledge is about personal and contextual risk of contracting an infectious disease obtained from declarative sources (e.g. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases). Automated prediction requires encoding this knowledge in a form that can produce risk probabilities (e.g. Bayesian Network - BN). The knowledge-base presented in this paper feeds an algorithm that can auto-generate the BN. The knowledge from 234 infectious diseases was compiled. From this compilation, we designed an ontology and five rule types for modelling IDR knowledge in general. The evaluation aims to assess whether the knowledge-base structure, and its application to three disease-country contexts, meets the needs of personalized IDR prediction system. From the evaluation results, the knowledge-base conforms to the system's purpose: personalization of infectious disease risk.

Iterative Evaluation in a Mobile Counseling and Testing Program to Reach People of Color at Risk for HIV--New Strategies Improve Program Acceptability, Effectiveness, and Evaluation Capabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles

2011-01-01

This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program's…

Evaluating Computer-Based Assessment in a Risk-Based Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zakrzewski, Stan; Steven, Christine; Ricketts, Chris

2009-01-01

There are three purposes for evaluation: evaluation for action to aid the decision making process, evaluation for understanding to further enhance enlightenment and evaluation for control to ensure compliance to standards. This article argues that the primary function of evaluation in the "Catherine Wheel" computer-based assessment (CBA)…

The FRIENDS emotional health program for minority groups at risk.

PubMed

Iizuka, Cristina A; Barrett, Paula M; Gillies, Robyn; Cook, Clayton R; Miller, Debbie

2014-02-01

Despite the existence of evidence-based interventions for promoting mental health in children, the number of children at risk remains high. One of the reasons is that such interventions are not reaching specific groups at risk such as low socioeconomic status and ethnic minority groups. This study evaluated an adaptation of a school-based psychosocial program for nonreferred students aged 11 to 12 years attending a multicultural school from a low socioeconomic status area. The FRIENDS Program was adapted for a multicultural population. A quasi-experimental design was used, involving a pre/post-test, to evaluate the impact of the intervention on participants' outcomes on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Participants were divided into 2 categories ("at risk"/"not at risk") based on their scores in the SDQ at pre-test. Post-test data were collected to evaluate the overall effectiveness and acceptability of the program. Analyses showed significant improvement for the group initially identified as "at risk," with 30% of the students being no longer at risk after the intervention. Most students rated the intervention as being highly acceptable and useful. Adaptations to existing evidence-based programs for implementation with specific minority groups at risk represents a promising approach to promote emotional health in children. © 2014, American School Health Association.

System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Adam David; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; Cohn, Brian

In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) andmore » system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.« less

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

PubMed

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

PubMed

Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

2003-12-01

The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option.

Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

Evaluation of the Families SHARE workbook: an educational tool outlining disease risk and healthy guidelines to reduce risk of heart disease, diabetes, breast cancer and colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Koehly, Laura M; Morris, Bronwyn A; Skapinsky, Kaley; Goergen, Andrea; Ludden, Amanda

2015-11-13

Common diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer are etiologically complex with multiple risk factors (e.g., environment, genetic, lifestyle). These risk factors tend to cluster in families, making families an important social context for intervention and lifestyle-focused disease prevention. The Families Sharing Health Assessment and Risk Evaluation (SHARE) workbook was designed as an educational tool outlining family health history based risk of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer. The current paper describes the steps taken to develop and evaluate the workbook employing a user-centered design approach. The workbook was developed in four steps, culminating in an evaluation focusing on understanding and usability of the tool. The evaluation was based on two Phases of data collected from a sample of mothers of young children in the Washington, D.C., area. A baseline assessment and follow-up approximately two weeks after receipt of the workbook were conducted, as well as focus groups with participants. The design of the workbook was refined in response to participant feedback from the first evaluation Phase and subsequently re-evaluated with a new sample. After incorporating user-based feedback and revising the workbook, Phase 2 evaluation results indicated that understanding of the workbook components improved for all sections (from 6.26 to 6.81 on a 7-point scale). In addition, 100% of users were able to use the algorithm to assess their disease risk and over 60% used the algorithm to assess family members' disease risk. At follow-up, confidence to increase fruit, vegetable and fiber intake improved significantly, as well. The Families SHARE workbook was developed and evaluated resulting in a family health history tool that is both understandable and usable by key stakeholders. This educational tool will be used in intervention studies assessing the effectiveness of family genomics health educators who use the Families SHARE workbook to disseminate family risk information and encourage risk reducing behaviors. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01498276 . Registered 21 December 2011.

[Prenatal risk calculation: comparison between Fast Screen pre I plus software and ViewPoint software. Evaluation of the risk calculation algorithms].

PubMed

Morin, Jean-François; Botton, Eléonore; Jacquemard, François; Richard-Gireme, Anouk

2013-01-01

The Fetal medicine foundation (FMF) has developed a new algorithm called Prenatal Risk Calculation (PRC) to evaluate Down syndrome screening based on free hCGβ, PAPP-A and nuchal translucency. The peculiarity of this algorithm is to use the degree of extremeness (DoE) instead of the multiple of the median (MoM). The biologists measuring maternal seric markers on Kryptor™ machines (Thermo Fisher Scientific) use Fast Screen pre I plus software for the prenatal risk calculation. This software integrates the PRC algorithm. Our study evaluates the data of 2.092 patient files of which 19 show a fœtal abnormality. These files have been first evaluated with the ViewPoint software based on MoM. The link between DoE and MoM has been analyzed and the different calculated risks compared. The study shows that Fast Screen pre I plus software gives the same risk results as ViewPoint software, but yields significantly fewer false positive results.

CREAT Risk Assessment Application for Water Utilities

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

EVALUATING RISK IN OLDER ADULTS USING PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The rapid growth in the number of older Americans has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures to older adults. An important element for evaluating risk is the understanding of the doses of environment...

FRAT-up, a Web-based Fall-Risk Assessment Tool for Elderly People Living in the Community

PubMed Central

Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chiari, Lorenzo

2015-01-01

Background About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. Objective The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. Methods FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject’s fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. Results The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration. Conclusions FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR). PMID:25693419

An evaluation of Computational Fluid dynamics model for flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Francesco, Silvia; Biscarini, Chiara; Montesarchio, Valeria

2014-05-01

This work presents an analysis of the hydrological-hydraulic engineering requisites for Risk evaluation and efficient flood damage reduction plans. Most of the research efforts have been dedicated to the scientific and technical aspects of risk assessment, providing estimates of possible alternatives and of the risk associated. In the decision making process for mitigation plan, the contribute of scientist is crucial, due to the fact that Risk-Damage analysis is based on evaluation of flow field ,of Hydraulic Risk and on economical and societal considerations. The present paper will focus on the first part of process, the mathematical modelling of flood events which is the base for all further considerations. The evaluation of potential catastrophic damage consequent to a flood event and in particular to dam failure requires modelling of the flood with sufficient detail so to capture the spatial and temporal evolutions of the event, as well of the velocity field. Thus, the selection of an appropriate mathematical model to correctly simulate flood routing is an essential step. In this work we present the application of two 3D Computational fluid dynamics models to a synthetic and real case study in order to evaluate the correct evolution of flow field and the associated flood Risk . The first model is based on a opensource CFD platform called openFoam. Water flow is schematized with a classical continuum approach based on Navier-Stokes equation coupled with Volume of fluid (VOF) method to take in account the multiphase character of river bottom-water- air systems. The second model instead is based on the Lattice Boltzmann method, an innovative numerical fluid dynamics scheme based on Boltzmann's kinetic equation that represents the flow dynamics at the macroscopic level by incorporating a microscopic kinetic approach. Fluid is seen as composed by particles that can move and collide among them. Simulation results from both models are promising and congruent to experimental results available in literature, thought the LBM model requires less computational effort respect to the NS one.

Models of evaluating efficiency and risks on integration of cloud-base IT-services of the machine-building enterprise: a system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razumnikov, S.; Kurmanbay, A.

2016-04-01

The present paper suggests a system approach to evaluation of the effectiveness and risks resulted from the integration of cloud-based services in a machine-building enterprise. This approach makes it possible to estimate a set of enterprise IT applications and choose the applications to be migrated to the cloud with regard to specific business requirements, a technological strategy and willingness to risk.

Unmanned aircraft system sense and avoid integrity and continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamoom, Michael B.

This thesis describes new methods to guarantee safety of sense and avoid (SAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) by evaluating integrity and continuity risks. Previous SAA efforts focused on relative safety metrics, such as risk ratios, comparing the risk of using an SAA system versus not using it. The methods in this thesis evaluate integrity and continuity risks as absolute measures of safety, as is the established practice in commercial aircraft terminal area navigation applications. The main contribution of this thesis is a derivation of a new method, based on a standard intruder relative constant velocity assumption, that uses hazard state estimates and estimate error covariances to establish (1) the integrity risk of the SAA system not detecting imminent loss of '"well clear," which is the time and distance required to maintain safe separation from intruder aircraft, and (2) the probability of false alert, the continuity risk. Another contribution is applying these integrity and continuity risk evaluation methods to set quantifiable and certifiable safety requirements on sensors. A sensitivity analysis uses this methodology to evaluate the impact of sensor errors on integrity and continuity risks. The penultimate contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation where the estimation model is refined to address realistic intruder relative linear accelerations, which goes beyond the current constant velocity standard. The final contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation addressing multiple intruders. This evaluation is a new innovation-based method to determine the risk of mis-associating intruder measurements. A mis-association occurs when the SAA system incorrectly associates a measurement to the wrong intruder, causing large errors in the estimated intruder trajectories. The new methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between aircraft and enable SAA sensor certification for UAS integration into the National Airspace System.

Testing and refining the Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP) web-based platform for evaluating the reliability and relevance of in vivo toxicity studies.

PubMed

Beronius, Anna; Molander, Linda; Zilliacus, Johanna; Rudén, Christina; Hanberg, Annika

2018-05-28

The Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP) web-based platform was developed to promote and facilitate structure and transparency in the evaluation of ecotoxicity and toxicity studies for hazard and risk assessment of chemicals. The platform includes sets of criteria and a colour-coding tool for evaluating the reliability and relevance of individual studies. The SciRAP method for evaluating in vivo toxicity studies was first published in 2014 and the aim of the work presented here was to evaluate and develop that method further. Toxicologists and risk assessors from different sectors and geographical areas were invited to test the SciRAP criteria and tool on a specific set of in vivo toxicity studies and to provide feedback concerning the scientific soundness and user-friendliness of the SciRAP approach. The results of this expert assessment were used to refine and improve both the evaluation criteria and the colour-coding tool. It is expected that the SciRAP web-based platform will continue to be developed and enhanced to keep up to date with the needs of end-users. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Are Management-Based Regulations Effective? Evidence from State Pollution Prevention Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bennear, Lori Snyder

2007-01-01

This paper evaluates a recent innovation in regulating risk called management-based regulation. Traditionally, risk regulation has either specified a particular means of achieving a risk-reduction goal or specified the goal and left the means of achieving that goal up to the regulated entity. In contrast, management-based regulation neither…

National evaluation of the TMC applications of archived data operational test -- ADMS Virginia

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

As a part of its risk management efforts, the Office of Motor Carriers sponsored a risk-based evaluation of roadside violations. This tech brief summarizes the study final report. The evaluation sought to categorize each commercial motor vehicle (CMV...

Two-scale evaluation of remediation technologies for a contaminated site by applying economic input-output life cycle assessment: risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO2 emission.

PubMed

Inoue, Yasushi; Katayama, Arata

2011-09-15

A two-scale evaluation concept of remediation technologies for a contaminated site was expanded by introducing life cycle costing (LCC) and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA). The expanded evaluation index, the rescue number for soil (RN(SOIL)) with LCC and EIO-LCA, comprises two scales, such as risk-cost, risk-energy consumption or risk-CO(2) emission of a remediation. The effectiveness of RN(SOIL) with LCC and EIO-LCA was examined in a typical contamination and remediation scenario in which dieldrin contaminated an agricultural field. Remediation was simulated using four technologies: disposal, high temperature thermal desorption, biopile and landfarming. Energy consumption and CO(2) emission were determined from a life cycle inventory analysis using monetary-based intensity based on an input-output table. The values of RN(SOIL) based on risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO(2) emission were calculated, and then rankings of the candidates were compiled according to RN(SOIL) values. A comparison between three rankings showed the different ranking orders. The existence of differences in ranking order indicates that the scales would not have reciprocal compatibility for two-scale evaluation and that each scale should be used independently. The RN(SOIL) with LCA will be helpful in selecting a technology, provided an appropriate scale is determined. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water

PubMed Central

Wolf, Douglas C.; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I.; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P.; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework’s roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization. PMID:26451723

Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water.

PubMed

Wolf, Douglas C; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R

2016-01-01

The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework's roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization.

Evaluating Disaster Education: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's TsunamiReady[TM] Community Program and Risk Awareness Education Efforts in New Hanover County, North Carolina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horan, Jennifer; Ritchie, Liesel Ashley; Meinhold, Stephen; Gill, Duane A.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Gregg, Chris E.; Matheson, Tom; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David

2010-01-01

This chapter describes the evaluation of the TsunamiReady[TM]-based educational materials distributed in New Hanover County, North Carolina. The authors evaluate whether educational materials about tsunami risk increased the perception of hazard risk, information, knowledge, and preparedness behaviors. There are three main findings. First, local…

Development and evaluation of a risk communication curriculum for medical students.

PubMed

Han, Paul K J; Joekes, Katherine; Elwyn, Glyn; Mazor, Kathleen M; Thomson, Richard; Sedgwick, Philip; Ibison, Judith; Wong, John B

2014-01-01

To develop, pilot, and evaluate a curriculum for teaching clinical risk communication skills to medical students. A new experience-based curriculum, "Risk Talk," was developed and piloted over a 1-year period among students at Tufts University School of Medicine. An experimental study of 2nd-year students exposed vs. unexposed to the curriculum was conducted to evaluate the curriculum's efficacy. Primary outcome measures were students' objective (observed) and subjective (self-reported) risk communication competence; the latter was assessed using an Observed Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) employing new measures. Twenty-eight 2nd-year students completed the curriculum, and exhibited significantly greater (p<.001) objective and subjective risk communication competence than a convenience sample of 24 unexposed students. New observational measures of objective competence in risk communication showed promising evidence of reliability and validity. The curriculum was resource-intensive. The new experience-based clinical risk communication curriculum was efficacious, although resource-intensive. More work is needed to develop the feasibility of curriculum delivery, and to improve the measurement of competence in clinical risk communication. Risk communication is an important advanced communication skill, and the Risk Talk curriculum provides a model educational intervention and new assessment tools to guide future efforts to teach and evaluate this skill. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Evaluation of a School-Based, Peer-Facilitated, Healthy Relationship Program for At-Risk Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLeod, David Axlyn; Jones, Robin; Cramer, Elizabeth P.

2015-01-01

There are few evaluations of peer-facilitated teenage dating violence prevention programs in the literature. To begin to address this gap, this project assessed the effectiveness of a school-based, peer-facilitated healthy relationships program among academically at-risk students. Two hundred and ninety-one ninth graders of mixed race and gender…

Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

2017-03-01

Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

Risk Assessment on Constructors during Over-water Riprap Based on Entropy Weight and FAHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tongqing; Li, Liang; Liang, Zelong; Mao, Tian; Shao, Weifeng

2017-07-01

Being aimed at waterway regulation engineering, there exist risks of over-water riprap for constructors which keeps uncertainty and complexity. For the purpose of evaluating the possibility and consequence, this paper utilizes fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with abbreviation of FAHP to do empowerment on the related risk indicators, constructs FAHP under entropy weight and establishes relevant evaluation factor set and evaluation language for constructors during over-water riprap construction process. Through doing risk probability estimation and risk consequence size evaluation on the factor of constructors, this paper introduces this model into risk analysis on constructors during over-water riprap of Ching River waterway regulation project. Results show that evaluation of this method is so credible that it could be utilized in practical engineering.

Risk-Based Evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Vapor Intrusion Studies

PubMed Central

Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

2013-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191

A Summative Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Classroom-Embedded, Individualistic, Computer-Based Learning for Middle School Students Placed at Academic Risk in Schools with a High Proportion of Title I Eligible Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeLoach, Regina M.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this "post hoc," summative evaluation was to evaluate the effectiveness of classroom-embedded, individualistic, computer-based learning for middle school students placed at academic risk in schools with a high proportion of Title I eligible students. Data were mined from existing school district databases. For data (n = 393)…

Perceived Risk in College Selection: Differences in Evaluative Criteria Used by Students and Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warwick, Jacquelyn; Mansfield, Phylis M.

2003-01-01

Students and parents base college selection on how well the college will overcome the perceived financial, social, psychological, physical, and functional risks associated with the college experience. Nineteen criteria associated with these risks were evaluated for significant differences between students and parents as well as for their level of…

Semi-automated landform classification for hazard mapping of soil liquefaction by earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, Takayuki

2018-05-01

Soil liquefaction damages were caused by huge earthquake in Japan, and the similar damages are concerned in near future huge earthquake. On the other hand, a preparation of soil liquefaction risk map (soil liquefaction hazard map) is impeded by the difficulty of evaluation of soil liquefaction risk. Generally, relative soil liquefaction risk should be able to be evaluated from landform classification data by using experimental rule based on the relationship between extent of soil liquefaction damage and landform classification items associated with past earthquake. Therefore, I rearranged the relationship between landform classification items and soil liquefaction risk intelligibly in order to enable the evaluation of soil liquefaction risk based on landform classification data appropriately and efficiently. And I developed a new method of generating landform classification data of 50-m grid size from existing landform classification data of 250-m grid size by using digital elevation model (DEM) data and multi-band satellite image data in order to evaluate soil liquefaction risk in detail spatially. It is expected that the products of this study contribute to efficient producing of soil liquefaction hazard map by local government.

[Psychosocial Risk Evaluation in the Workplace: Expert-based Development of a Checklist for Occupational Physicians].

PubMed

Weigl, M; Müller, A; Angerer, P; Petru, R

2016-03-01

The implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at the workplace often fails in practice. One reason is the lack of competence of those who are in charge of the process. We present a checklist for the effective implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at workplace. This tool shall support occupational physicians in the preparation, planning and implementation of a psychosocial risks assessment process. Based on a stepwise development and validation process, specific steps and factors for the successful implementation were identified qualitatively with 15 occupational physicians and experts. This was conducted in a 2-stage Delphi study. In the following, the identified steps and factors were transferred into a checklist. Subsequently, the checklist was evaluated in a focus group of occupational physicians (user evaluation). Thereafter, the contents were subjected to an expert evaluation. Our checklist for the effective implementation of the process of psychosocial risk management in the workplace aims to strengthen the competence of occupational physicians, especially in the implementation of risk assessments in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Supplemental calcium and risk reduction of hypertension, pregnancy-induced hypertension, and preeclampsia: an evidence-based review by the US Food and Drug Administration.

PubMed

Trumbo, Paula R; Ellwood, Kathleen C

2007-02-01

The labeling of health claims that meet the significant scientific agreement (SSA) standard (authorized health claims) and qualified health claims on conventional foods and dietary supplements requires premarket approval by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). FDA conducts an evidence-based review to determine whether there is sufficient evidence to support an authorized or qualified health claim. An evidence-based review was conducted on the human intervention and observational studies evaluating the role of supplemental calcium in reducing the risk of hypertension, pregnancy-induced hypertension, and preeclampsia. This review provides FDA's evaluation of the current scientific evidence on the role of supplemental calcium in reducing the risk of these three end points. Based on this evidence-based review, the agency concluded that the relationship between calcium and risk of hypertension is inconsistent and inconclusive, and the relationship between calcium and risk of pregnancy-induced hypertension and preeclampsia is highly unlikely.

Priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors in the U.S. toxics release inventory: a comparison of the life cycle impact-based and risk-based assessment tools developed by U.S. EPA.

PubMed

Lim, Seong-Rin; Lam, Carl W; Schoenung, Julie M

2011-09-01

Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and Risk Assessment (RA) employ different approaches to evaluate toxic impact potential for their own general applications. LCIA is often used to evaluate toxicity potentials for corporate environmental management and RA is often used to evaluate a risk score for environmental policy in government. This study evaluates the cancer, non-cancer, and ecotoxicity potentials and risk scores of chemicals and industry sectors in the United States on the basis of the LCIA- and RA-based tools developed by U.S. EPA, and compares the priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors identified with each method to examine whether the LCIA- and RA-based results lead to the same prioritization schemes. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) is applied as an LCIA-based screening approach with a focus on air and water emissions, and the Risk-Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) is applied in equivalent fashion as an RA-based screening approach. The U.S. Toxic Release Inventory is used as the dataset for this analysis, because of its general applicability to a comprehensive list of chemical substances and industry sectors. Overall, the TRACI and RSEI results do not agree with each other in part due to the unavailability of characterization factors and toxic scores for select substances, but primarily because of their different evaluation approaches. Therefore, TRACI and RSEI should be used together both to support a more comprehensive and robust approach to screening of chemicals for environmental management and policy and to highlight substances that are found to be of concern from both perspectives. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

Iterative evaluation in a mobile counseling and testing program to reach people of color at risk for HIV--new strategies improve program acceptability, effectiveness, and evaluation capabilities.

PubMed

Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles

2011-06-01

This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program's results show that an increased focus on mobile outreach using rapid testing, incentives and health information technology tools may improve program acceptability, quality, productivity and timeliness of reports. This article describes program design decisions based on continuous quality assessment efforts. It also examines the impact of the Computer Assessment and Risk Reduction Education computer tool on HIV testing rates, staff perception of counseling quality, program productivity, and on the timeliness of evaluation reports. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for programmatic responses to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's HIV testing recommendations.

ITERATIVE EVALUATION IN A MOBILE COUNSELING AND TESTING PROGRAM TO REACH PEOPLE OF COLOR AT RISK FOR HIV—NEW STRATEGIES IMPROVE PROGRAM ACCEPTABILITY, EFFECTIVENESS, AND EVALUATION CAPABILITIES

PubMed Central

Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles

2016-01-01

This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program’s results show that an increased focus on mobile outreach using rapid testing, incentives and health information technology tools may improve program acceptability, quality, productivity and timeliness of reports. This article describes program design decisions based on continuous quality assessment efforts. It also examines the impact of the Computer Assessment and Risk Reduction Education computer tool on HIV testing rates, staff perception of counseling quality, program productivity, and on the timeliness of evaluation reports. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for programmatic responses to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s HIV testing recommendations. PMID:21689041

Developing and evaluating an automated appendicitis risk stratification algorithm for pediatric patients in the emergency department.

PubMed

Deleger, Louise; Brodzinski, Holly; Zhai, Haijun; Li, Qi; Lingren, Todd; Kirkendall, Eric S; Alessandrini, Evaline; Solti, Imre

2013-12-01

To evaluate a proposed natural language processing (NLP) and machine-learning based automated method to risk stratify abdominal pain patients by analyzing the content of the electronic health record (EHR). We analyzed the EHRs of a random sample of 2100 pediatric emergency department (ED) patients with abdominal pain, including all with a final diagnosis of appendicitis. We developed an automated system to extract relevant elements from ED physician notes and lab values and to automatically assign a risk category for acute appendicitis (high, equivocal, or low), based on the Pediatric Appendicitis Score. We evaluated the performance of the system against a manually created gold standard (chart reviews by ED physicians) for recall, specificity, and precision. The system achieved an average F-measure of 0.867 (0.869 recall and 0.863 precision) for risk classification, which was comparable to physician experts. Recall/precision were 0.897/0.952 in the low-risk category, 0.855/0.886 in the high-risk category, and 0.854/0.766 in the equivocal-risk category. The information that the system required as input to achieve high F-measure was available within the first 4 h of the ED visit. Automated appendicitis risk categorization based on EHR content, including information from clinical notes, shows comparable performance to physician chart reviewers as measured by their inter-annotator agreement and represents a promising new approach for computerized decision support to promote application of evidence-based medicine at the point of care.

Impact of model-based risk analysis for liver surgery planning.

PubMed

Hansen, C; Zidowitz, S; Preim, B; Stavrou, G; Oldhafer, K J; Hahn, H K

2014-05-01

A model-based risk analysis for oncologic liver surgery was described in previous work (Preim et al. in Proceedings of international symposium on computer assisted radiology and surgery (CARS), Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 353–358, 2002; Hansen et al. Int I Comput Assist Radiol Surg 4(5):469–474, 2009). In this paper, we present an evaluation of this method. To prove whether and how the risk analysis facilitates the process of liver surgery planning, an explorative user study with 10 liver experts was conducted. The purpose was to compare and analyze their decision-making. The results of the study show that model-based risk analysis enhances the awareness of surgical risk in the planning stage. Participants preferred smaller resection volumes and agreed more on the safety margins’ width in case the risk analysis was available. In addition, time to complete the planning task and confidence of participants were not increased when using the risk analysis. This work shows that the applied model-based risk analysis may influence important planning decisions in liver surgery. It lays a basis for further clinical evaluations and points out important fields for future research.

Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases

PubMed Central

Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2018-01-01

The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093

Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases.

PubMed

Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J

2016-06-21

The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human-tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016.This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

76 FR 79379 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-21

... play a critical ``gatekeeper'' role in the debt markets and perform evaluative and analytical services... assessments for fee-paying clients, nor does it provide the sort of evaluative and analytical services as...

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2012-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

Are cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management programmes cost effective? A systematic review of the evidence.

PubMed

Lee, John Tayu; Lawson, Kenny D; Wan, Yizhou; Majeed, Azeem; Morris, Stephen; Soljak, Michael; Millett, Christopher

2017-06-01

The World Health Organization recommends that countries implement population-wide cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management programmes. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to evaluate whether this recommendation is supported by cost-effectiveness evidence. Published economic evaluations were identified via electronic medical and social science databases (including Medline, Web of Science, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database) from inception to March 2016. Study quality was evaluated using a modified version of the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards. Fourteen economic evaluations were included: five studies based on randomised controlled trials, seven studies based on observational studies and two studies using hypothetical modelling synthesizing secondary data. Trial based studies measured CVD risk factor changes over 1 to 3years, with modelled projections of longer term events. Programmes were either not, or only, cost-effective under non-verified assumptions such as sustained risk factor changes. Most observational and hypothetical studies suggested programmes were likely to be cost-effective; however, study deigns are subject to bias and subsequent empirical evidence has contradicted key assumptions. No studies assessed impacts on inequalities. In conclusion, recommendations for population-wide risk assessment and management programmes lack a robust, real world, evidence basis. Given implementation is resource intensive there is a need for robust economic evaluation, ideally conducted alongside trials, to assess cost effectiveness. Further, the efficiency and equity impact of different delivery models should be investigated, and also the combination of targeted screening with whole population interventions recognising that there multiple approaches to prevention. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

[Risk management--a new aspect of quality assessment in intensive care medicine: first results of an analysis of the DIVI's interdisciplinary quality assessment research group].

PubMed

Stiletto, R; Röthke, M; Schäfer, E; Lefering, R; Waydhas, Ch

2006-10-01

Patient security has become one of the major aspects of clinical management in recent years. The crucial point in research was focused on malpractice. In contradiction to the economic process in non medical fields, the analysis of errors during the in-patient treatment time was neglected. Patient risk management can be defined as a structured procedure in a clinical unit with the aim to reduce harmful events. A risk point model was created based on a Delphi process and founded on the DIVI data register. The risk point model was evaluated in clinically working ICU departments participating in the register data base. The results of the risk point evaluation will be integrated in the next data base update. This might be a step to improve the reliability of the register to measure quality assessment in the ICU.

Baseline ecological risk assessment of the Calcasieu Estuary, Louisiana: 2. An evaluation of the predictive ability of effects-based sediment quality guidelines

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacDonald, Donald D.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.; Smorong, Dawn E.; Sinclair, Jesse A.; Lindskoog, Rebekka; Wang, Ning; Severn, Corrine; Gouguet, Ron; Meyer, John; Field, Jay

2011-01-01

Three sets of effects-based sediment-quality guidelines (SQGs) were evaluated to support the selection of sediment-quality benchmarks for assessing risks to benthic invertebrates in the Calcasieu Estuary, Louisiana. These SQGs included probable effect concentrations (PECs), effects range median values (ERMs), and logistic regression model (LRMs)-based T50 values. The results of this investigation indicate that all three sets of SQGs tend to underestimate sediment toxicity in the Calcasieu Estuary (i.e., relative to the national data sets), as evaluated using the results of 10-day toxicity tests with the amphipod, Hyalella azteca, or Ampelisca abdita, and 28-day whole-sediment toxicity tests with the H. azteca. These results emphasize the importance of deriving site-specific toxicity thresholds for assessing risks to benthic invertebrates.

Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

2009-01-01

The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

2012-01-01

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

Prospective multi-institutional study evaluating the performance of prostate cancer risk calculators.

PubMed

Nam, Robert K; Kattan, Michael W; Chin, Joseph L; Trachtenberg, John; Singal, Rajiv; Rendon, Ricardo; Klotz, Laurence H; Sugar, Linda; Sherman, Christopher; Izawa, Jonathan; Bell, David; Stanimirovic, Aleksandra; Venkateswaran, Vasundara; Diamandis, Eleftherios P; Yu, Changhong; Loblaw, D Andrew; Narod, Steven A

2011-08-01

Prostate cancer risk calculators incorporate many factors to evaluate an individual's risk for prostate cancer. We validated two common North American-based, prostate cancer risk calculators. We conducted a prospective, multi-institutional study of 2,130 patients who underwent a prostate biopsy for prostate cancer detection from five centers. We evaluated the performance of the Sunnybrook nomogram-based prostate cancer risk calculator (SRC) and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) -based risk calculator (PRC) to predict the presence of any cancer and high-grade cancer. We examined discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis techniques to evaluate the prediction models. Of the 2,130 patients, 867 men (40.7%) were found to have cancer, and 1,263 (59.3%) did not have cancer. Of the patients with cancer, 403 (46.5%) had a Gleason score of 7 or more. The area under the [concentration-time] curve (AUC) for the SRC was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.69); the AUC for the PRC was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.64). The AUC was higher for predicting aggressive disease from the SRC (0.72; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.75) compared with that from the PRC (0.67; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.70). Decision curve analyses showed that the SRC performed better than the PRC for risk thresholds of more than 30% for any cancer and more than 15% for aggressive cancer. The SRC performed better than the PRC, but neither one added clinical benefit for risk thresholds of less than 30%. Further research is needed to improve the AUCs of the risk calculators, particularly for higher-grade cancer.

Evaluation of a Faith-Based Culturally Relevant Program for African American Substance Users at Risk for HIV in the Southern United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacMaster, Samuel A.; Jones, Jenny L.; Rasch, Randolph F. R.; Crawford, Sharon L.; Thompson, Stephanie; Sanders, Edwin C., II

2007-01-01

Objective: This article provides an evaluation of a federally funded faith-based program that serves African Americans who use heroin and cocaine and are at risk for HIV/AIDS in Nashville, Tennessee. Methods: Data were collected from 163 individuals at baseline and 6- and 12-month follow-up interviews. A subset of participants (n = 51) completed…

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Study on building index system of risk assessment of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine based on AHP-fuzzy neural network].

PubMed

Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming; Fu, Yingkun

2011-10-01

Currently massive researches have been launched about the safety, efficiency and economy of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine (CPM) proprietary Chinese medicine, but it was lack of a comprehensive interpretation. Establishing the risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model of CPM is the key to solve drug safety problems and protect people's health. The clinical risk factors of CPM exist similarities with the Western medicine, can draw lessons from foreign experience, but also have itself multi-factor multivariate multi-level complex features. Drug safety risk assessment for the uncertainty and complexity, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to empower the index weights, AHP-based fuzzy neural network to build post-marketing CPM risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model and constantly improving the application of traditional Chinese medicine characteristic is accord with the road and feasible beneficial exploration.

Zika Virus in Ontario: Evaluating a Rapid Risk Assessment Tool for Emerging Infectious Disease Threats.

PubMed

Van Meer, Ryan; Hohenadel, Karin; Fitzgerald-Husek, Alanna; Warshawsky, Bryna; Sider, Doug; Schwartz, Brian; Nelder, Mark P

To determine the Ontario-specific risk of local and travel-related Zika virus transmission in the context of a public health emergency of international concern, Public Health Ontario (PHO) completed a rapid risk assessment (RRA) on January 29, 2016, using a newly developed RRA guidance tool. The RRA concluded that risk of local mosquito-borne transmission was low, with a high risk of imported cases through travel. The RRA was updated 3 times based on predetermined triggers. An independent evaluation assessed both the application of the RRA guidance tool (process evaluation) and the usefulness of the RRA (outcome evaluation). We conducted face-to-face, semi-structured interviews with 7 individuals who participated in the creation or review of the Zika virus RRA and 4 end-users at PHO and the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. An inductive thematic analysis of responses was undertaken, whereby themes were directly informed by the data. The process evaluation determined that most steps outlined in the RRA guidance tool were adhered to, including forming a cross-functional writing team, clarifying the scope and describing context, completing the RRA summary report, and updating the RRA based on predefined triggers. The outcome evaluation found that end-users judged the Zika virus RRA as evidence-informed, useful, consistent, and timely. The evaluation established that the locally tailored guidance tool, adapted from national and international approaches to RRAs, facilitated a systematic, evidence-informed, and timely formal RRA process at PHO for the Zika virus RRA, which met the needs of end-users. Based on the evaluation, PHO will modify future RRAs by incorporating some flexibility into the literature review process to support timeliness of the RRA, explicitly describing the limitations of studies used to inform the RRA, and refining risk algorithms to better suit emerging infectious disease threats. It is anticipated that these refinements will improve upon the timely assessment of novel or reemerging infectious diseases.

The development of a multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool for demented nursing home patients in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Neyens, Jacques C L; Dijcks, Béatrice P J; van Haastregt, Jolanda C M; de Witte, Luc P; van den Heuvel, Wim J A; Crebolder, Harry F J M; Schols, Jos M G A

2006-03-21

Demented nursing home patients are at high risk for falls. Falls and associated injuries can have a considerable influence on the autonomy and quality of life of patients. The prevention of falls among demented patients is therefore an important issue. In order to intervene in an efficient way in this group of patients, it is important to systematically evaluate the fall risk profile of each individual patient so that for each patient tailor-made preventive measures can be taken. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to develop a feasible and evidence based multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool to be used for tailoring preventive interventions to the needs of individual demented patients. To develop this multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool we have chosen to combine scientific evidence on the one hand and experts' opinions on the other hand. Firstly, relevant risk factors for falling in elderly persons were gathered from the literature. Secondly, a group of Dutch experts in the field of falls and fall prevention in the elderly were consulted to judge the suitability of these risk factors for use in a multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool for demented nursing home patients. Thirdly, in order to generate a compact list of the most relevant risk factors for falling in demented elderly, all risk factors had to fulfill a set of criteria indicating their relevance for this specific target population. Lastly the final list of risk factors resulting from the above mentioned procedure was presented to the expert group. The members were also asked to give their opinion about the practical use of the tool. The multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool we developed includes the following items: previous falls, use of medication, locomotor functions, and (correct) choice and use of assistive and protective devices. The tool is developed for the multidisciplinary teams of the nursing homes. This evidence and practice based multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool targets the preventive interventions aimed to prevent falls and their negative consequences in demented nursing home patients.

CANCER RISK ASSESSMENTS (RA.D.1D)

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessments are based on questions that the assessor asks about scientific information that is relevant to human and/or environmental risk. The risk characterization also provides an evaluation of the assumptions, uncertainties, and selection of studies and models used in th...

Evaluating robustness in rank-based risk assessments of freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, K.M.; Angermeier, Paul

2007-01-01

Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers—energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions—might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which can inform local and regional conservation planning.

Methodological and Design Considerations in Evaluating the Impact of Prevention Programs on Violence and Related Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Massetti, Greta M; Simon, Thomas R; Smith, Deborah Gorman

2016-10-01

Drawing on research that has identified specific predictors and trajectories of risk for violence and related negative outcomes, a multitude of small- and large-scale preventive interventions for specific risk behaviors have been developed, implemented, and evaluated. One of the principal challenges of these approaches is that a number of separate problem-specific programs targeting different risk areas have emerged. However, as many negative health behaviors such as substance abuse and violence share a multitude of risk factors, many programs target identical risk factors. There are opportunities to understand whether evidence-based programs can be leveraged for potential effects across a spectrum of outcomes and over time. Some recent work has documented longitudinal effects of evidence-based interventions on generalized outcomes. This work has potential for advancing our understanding of the effectiveness of promising and evidence-based prevention strategies. However, conducting longitudinal follow-up of established interventions presents a number of methodological and design challenges. To answer some of these questions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a panel of multidisciplinary experts to discuss opportunities to take advantage of evaluations of early prevention programs and evaluating multiple long-term outcomes. This special section of the journal Prevention Science includes a series of papers that begin to address the relevant considerations for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research. This collection of papers is intended to inform our understanding of the challenges and strategies for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research that could be used to drive future research endeavors.

Green tea consumption and gastric cancer risk: an evaluation based on a systematic review of epidemiologic evidence among the Japanese population.

PubMed

Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Wakai, Kenji; Nagata, Chisato; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Tanaka, Keitaro; Tsuji, Ichiro; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2012-04-01

Numerous in vitro and animal studies have shown that green tea has a protective effect against cancer. However, results from epidemiologic studies are conflicting. We evaluated the association between green tea consumption and risk for gastric cancer risk among the Japanese population based on a systematic review of epidemiologic evidence. Original data were obtained from MEDLINE searches using PubMed or from searches of the Ichushi database, complemented with manual searches. Evaluation of associations was based on the strength of evidence and the magnitude of association, together with biologic plausibility. Eight cohort studies and three case-control studies were identified. Overall, we found no preventive effect on gastric cancer for green tea intake in cohort studies. However, a small, consistent risk reduction limited to women was observed, which was confirmed by pooling data of six cohort studies (hazard ratio = 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.96 with ≥5 cups/day of green tea intake). Case-control studies consistently showed a weak inverse association between green tea intake and gastric cancer risk. We conclude that green tea possibly decreases the risk of gastric cancer in women. However, epidemiologic evidence is still insufficient to demonstrate any association in men.

Using a Systematic Conceptual Model for a Process Evaluation of a Middle School Obesity Risk-Reduction Nutrition Curriculum Intervention: "Choice, Control & Change"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Heewon; Contento, Isobel R.; Koch, Pamela

2013-01-01

Objective: To use and review a conceptual model of process evaluation and to examine the implementation of a nutrition education curriculum, "Choice, Control & Change", designed to promote dietary and physical activity behaviors that reduce obesity risk. Design: A process evaluation study based on a systematic conceptual model. Setting: Five…

Developing and Evaluating a Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brownson, Ross C.; Mayer, Jeffrey P.; Dusseault, Patricia; Dabney, Sue; Wright, Kathleen; Jackson-Thompson, Jeannette; Malone, Bernard; Goodman, Robert

1997-01-01

Describes the development and baseline evaluation data from the Ozark Heart Health Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease risk reduction program in rural Missouri that targeted smoking, physical inactivity, and poor diet. Several Ozark counties participated in either intervention or control groups, and researchers conducted surveillance…

A quantitative risk-assessment system (QR-AS) evaluating operation safety of Organic Rankine Cycle using flammable mixture working fluid.

PubMed

Tian, Hua; Wang, Xueying; Shu, Gequn; Wu, Mingqiang; Yan, Nanhua; Ma, Xiaonan

2017-09-15

Mixture of hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide shows excellent cycle performance in Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) used for engine waste heat recovery, but the unavoidable leakage in practical application is a threat for safety due to its flammability. In this work, a quantitative risk assessment system (QR-AS) is established aiming at providing a general method of risk assessment for flammable working fluid leakage. The QR-AS covers three main aspects: analysis of concentration distribution based on CFD simulations, explosive risk assessment based on the TNT equivalent method and risk mitigation based on evaluation results. A typical case of propane/carbon dioxide mixture leaking from ORC is investigated to illustrate the application of QR-AS. According to the assessment results, proper ventilation speed, safe mixture ratio and location of gas-detecting devices have been proposed to guarantee the security in case of leakage. The results revealed that this presented QR-AS was reliable for the practical application and the evaluation results could provide valuable guidance for the design of mitigation measures to improve the safe performance of ORC system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model study of the Haihe river passenger ferry risk based on AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jinyin; Xu, Yanming; Du, Chunzhi; Jin, Zhenhua

2017-05-01

The core function of maritime is water safety supervision, whose emphasis and difficulty is ferry. In combination with the practical situation of Haihe river passenger ferry operation management, this paper analyzes Haihe river passenger ferry risk from four aspects "human, machinery, environment and management", and establishes the ferry risk index system. By using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), the ferry risk evaluation model is established. By using the ferry model, the application of Ferry Zhengyanfa7 in Tianjin Haihe river crossing is evaluated, whose safety situation is verified to be between "relatively high risk" and "high risk".

Radiation risk from CT: implications for cancer screening.

PubMed

Albert, Jeffrey M

2013-07-01

The cancer risks associated with patient exposure to radiation from medical imaging have become a major topic of debate. The higher doses necessary for technologies such as CT and the increasing utilization of these technologies further increase medical radiation exposure to the population. Furthermore, the use of CT for population-based cancer screening continues to be explored for common malignancies such as lung cancer and colorectal cancer. Given the known carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation, this warrants evaluation of the balance between the benefit of early cancer detection and the risk of screening-induced malignancy. This report provides a brief review of the process of radiation carcino-genesis and the literature evaluating the risk of malignancy from CT, with a focus on the risks and benefits of CT for cancer screening. The available data suggest a small but real risk of radiation-induced malignancy from CT that could become significant at the population level with widespread use of CT-based screening. However, a growing body of literature suggests that the benefits of CT screening for lung cancer in high-risk patients and CT colonography for colorectal cancer may significantly outweigh the radiation risk. Future studies evaluating the benefits of CT screening should continue to consider potential radiation risks.

A unified framework for evaluating the risk of re-identification of text de-identification tools.

PubMed

Scaiano, Martin; Middleton, Grant; Arbuckle, Luk; Kolhatkar, Varada; Peyton, Liam; Dowling, Moira; Gipson, Debbie S; El Emam, Khaled

2016-10-01

It has become regular practice to de-identify unstructured medical text for use in research using automatic methods, the goal of which is to remove patient identifying information to minimize re-identification risk. The metrics commonly used to determine if these systems are performing well do not accurately reflect the risk of a patient being re-identified. We therefore developed a framework for measuring the risk of re-identification associated with textual data releases. We apply the proposed evaluation framework to a data set from the University of Michigan Medical School. Our risk assessment results are then compared with those that would be obtained using a typical contemporary micro-average evaluation of recall in order to illustrate the difference between the proposed evaluation framework and the current baseline method. We demonstrate how this framework compares against common measures of the re-identification risk associated with an automated text de-identification process. For the probability of re-identification using our evaluation framework we obtained a mean value for direct identifiers of 0.0074 and a mean value for quasi-identifiers of 0.0022. The 95% confidence interval for these estimates were below the relevant thresholds. The threshold for direct identifier risk was based on previously used approaches in the literature. The threshold for quasi-identifiers was determined based on the context of the data release following commonly used de-identification criteria for structured data. Our framework attempts to correct for poorly distributed evaluation corpora, accounts for the data release context, and avoids the often optimistic assumptions that are made using the more traditional evaluation approach. It therefore provides a more realistic estimate of the true probability of re-identification. This framework should be used as a basis for computing re-identification risk in order to more realistically evaluate future text de-identification tools. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

Evidence Based Review: Risk of Cardiac Rhythm Problems During Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platts, Steven H.; Stenger, Michael B.; Phillips, Tiffany R.; Brown, Angela K.; Arzeno, Natalia M.; Levine, Benjamin; Summers, Richard

2009-01-01

Very little research has systematically evaluated the prevalence (or potential risk) of cardiac arrhythmias during space flight. There are several observational reports of non life-threatening but potentially concerning arrhythmias. At least two potential risk factors for arrhythmias have been reported either during or immediately after space flight: cardiac atrophy and a prolonged QTc interval. The potential severity of the mission impact of a serious arrhythmia requires that a systematic evaluation be conducted of the risk of arrhythmia due to space flight.

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vouk, Mladen A.; Mcallister, David F.

1992-01-01

Accomplishments in the following research areas are summarized: structure based testing, reliability growth, and design testability with risk evaluation; reliability growth models and software risk management; and evaluation of consensus voting, consensus recovery block, and acceptance voting. Four papers generated during the reporting period are included as appendices.

Evaluation of the safety benefits of the risk awareness and perception training program for novice teen drivers.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

This project evaluated the impact of the PC-based Risk Awareness and Perception Training (RAPT) program on young driver crashes and traffic violations. Young drivers 16 to 18 years of age were recruited immediately after they passed the on-road drivi...

Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

2009-01-01

This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

24 CFR 35.215 - Disposition of residential property constructed after 1959 and before 1978.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN... risk assessment and a lead-based paint inspection in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227. Evaluation shall... results of the risk assessment and lead-based paint inspection shall be made available to prospective...

24 CFR 35.215 - Disposition of residential property constructed after 1959 and before 1978.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN... risk assessment and a lead-based paint inspection in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227. Evaluation shall... results of the risk assessment and lead-based paint inspection shall be made available to prospective...

24 CFR 35.215 - Disposition of residential property constructed after 1959 and before 1978.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN... risk assessment and a lead-based paint inspection in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227. Evaluation shall... results of the risk assessment and lead-based paint inspection shall be made available to prospective...

24 CFR 35.215 - Disposition of residential property constructed after 1959 and before 1978.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN... risk assessment and a lead-based paint inspection in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227. Evaluation shall... results of the risk assessment and lead-based paint inspection shall be made available to prospective...

24 CFR 35.215 - Disposition of residential property constructed after 1959 and before 1978.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN... risk assessment and a lead-based paint inspection in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227. Evaluation shall... results of the risk assessment and lead-based paint inspection shall be made available to prospective...

Integrating the Ergonomics Techniques with Multi Criteria Decision Making as a New Approach for Risk Management: An Assessment of Repetitive Tasks -Entropy Case Study.

PubMed

Khandan, Mohammad; Nili, Majid; Koohpaei, Alireza; Mosaferchi, Saeedeh

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the health work decision makers need to analyze a huge amount of data and consider many conflicting evaluation criteria and sub-criteria. Therefore, an ergonomic evaluation in the work environment in order to the control occupational disorders is considered as the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. In this study, the ergonomic risks factors, which may influence health, were evaluated in a manufacturing company in 2014. Then entropy method was applied to prioritize the different risk factors. This study was done with a descriptive-analytical approach and 13 tasks were included from total number of employees who were working in the seven halls of an ark opal manufacturing (240). Required information was gathered by the demographic questionnaire and Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART) method for repetitive task assessment. In addition, entropy was used to prioritize the risk factors based on the ergonomic control needs. The total exposure score based on the ART method calculated was equal to 30.07 ±12.43. Data analysis illustrated that 179 cases (74.6% of tasks) were in the high level of risk area and 13.8% were in the medium level of risk. ART- entropy results revealed that based on the weighted factors, higher value belongs to grip factor and the lowest value was related to neck and hand posture and duration. Based on the limited financial resources, it seems that MCDM in many challenging situations such as control procedures and priority approaches could be used successfully. Other MCDM methods for evaluating and prioritizing the ergonomic problems are recommended.

DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

2014-03-25

Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining Equivalency of the Driver Risk Inventory Test Versions: Does It Matter Which Version I Use?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Degiorgio, Lisa

2015-01-01

Equivalency of test versions is often assumed by counselors and evaluators. This study examined two versions, paper-pencil and computer based, of the Driver Risk Inventory, a DUI/DWI (driving under the influence/driving while intoxicated) risk assessment. An overview of computer-based testing and standards for equivalency is also provided. Results…

Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

2013-01-01

The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

The Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21): Roadmap and Matrix

EPA Science Inventory

The RISK21 integrated evaluation strategy is a problem formulation-based exposure-driven risk assessment roadmap that takes advantage of existing information to graphically represent the intersection of exposure and toxicity data on a highly visual matrix. This paper describes i...

Development and evaluation of RAMP I - a practitioner's tool for screening of musculoskeletal disorder risk factors in manual handling.

PubMed

Lind, Carl Mikael; Forsman, Mikael; Rose, Linda Maria

2017-10-16

RAMP I is a screening tool developed to support practitioners in screening for work-related musculoskeletal disorder risk factors related to manual handling. RAMP I, which is part of the RAMP tool, is based on research-based studies combined with expert group judgments. More than 80 practitioners participated in the development of RAMP I. The tool consists of dichotomous assessment items grouped into seven categories. Acceptable reliability was found for a majority of the assessment items for 15 practitioners who were given 1 h of training. The usability evaluation points to RAMP I being usable for screening for musculoskeletal disorder risk factors, i.e., usable for assessing risks, being usable as a decision base, having clear results and that the time needed for an assessment is acceptable. It is concluded that RAMP I is a usable tool for practitioners.

Evaluation of a Drowning Prevention Program Based on Testimonial Videos: A Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Pang, Shulan; Schwebel, David C.

2016-01-01

Objective Unintentional drowning is the most common cause of childhood death in rural China. Global intervention efforts offer mixed results regarding the efficacy of educational programs. Methods Using a randomized controlled design, we evaluated a testimonial-based intervention to reduce drowning risk among 280 3rd- and 4th-grade rural Chinese children. Children were randomly assigned to view either testimonials on drowning risk (intervention) or dog-bite risk (control). Safety knowledge and perceived vulnerability were measured by self-report questionnaires, and simulated behaviors in and near water were assessed with a culturally appropriate dollhouse task. Results Children in the intervention group had improved children’s safety knowledge and simulated behaviors but not perceived vulnerability compared with controls. Conclusions The testimonial-based intervention’s efficacy appears promising, as it improved safety knowledge and simulated risk behaviors with water among rural Chinese children. PMID:26546476

Evaluating a Web-Based Educational Module on Oral Cancer Examination Based on a Behavioral Framework.

PubMed

Wee, Alvin G; Zimmerman, Lani M; Pullen, Carol H; Allen, Carl M; Lambert, Paul M; Paskett, Electra D

2016-03-01

Patients at risk of developing oral and/or oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) are more likely to see primary care providers (PCPs) than a dentist. Many PCPs do not regularly perform oral cancer examination (OCE). The purpose of this study was to design a web-based educational program based on a behavioral framework to encourage PCPs to conduct OCE. PCPs were solicited to provide feedback on the program and to evaluate their short-term knowledge. The integrated behavioral model was used to design the program. Fifteen PCPs (five in each group: physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners) reviewed the program and took a posttest: (1) index of knowledge of risk factors for oral cancer (RiskOC) and (2) index of knowledge of diagnostic procedures for oral cancer (DiagOC). Findings from the process evaluation were mainly positive, with comments on the length of the program comprising the ten negative comments. No significant difference among groups of PCPs (physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners) was detected for DiagOC (p = 0.43) or RiskOC (p = 0.201). A program on OPC for PCPs should be less than 40 min. Postviewing knowledge outcomes were similar for all PCPs. The web-based program on OPC based on a behavioral framework could have similar short-term knowledge outcomes for all PCPs and may increase the number of PCPs performing OCEs.

Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

PubMed

Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2014-05-01

Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Bayesian networks in a hierarchical structure for environmental risk assessment: a case study of the Gabric Dam, Iran.

PubMed

Malekmohammadi, Bahram; Tayebzadeh Moghadam, Negar

2018-04-13

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a commonly used, effective tool applied to reduce adverse effects of environmental risk factors. In this study, ERA was investigated using the Bayesian network (BN) model based on a hierarchical structure of variables in an influence diagram (ID). ID facilitated ranking of the different alternatives under uncertainty that were then used to evaluate comparisons of the different risk factors. BN was used to present a new model for ERA applicable to complicated development projects such as dam construction. The methodology was applied to the Gabric Dam, in southern Iran. The main environmental risk factors in the region, presented by the Gabric Dam, were identified based on the Delphi technique and specific features of the study area. These included the following: flood, water pollution, earthquake, changes in land use, erosion and sedimentation, effects on the population, and ecosensitivity. These risk factors were then categorized based on results from the output decision node of the BN, including expected utility values for risk factors in the decision node. ERA was performed for the Gabric Dam using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to compare results of BN modeling with those of conventional methods. Results determined that a BN-based hierarchical structure to ERA present acceptable and reasonable risk assessment prioritization in proposing suitable solutions to reduce environmental risks and can be used as a powerful decision support system for evaluating environmental risks.

Evaluating the use of mobile phone technology to enhance cardiovascular disease screening by community health workers.

PubMed

Surka, Sam; Edirippulige, Sisira; Steyn, Krisela; Gaziano, Thomas; Puoane, Thandi; Levitt, Naomi

2014-09-01

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD),by identifying individuals at risk is a well-established, but costly strategy when based on measurements that depend on laboratory analyses. A non-laboratory, paper-based CVD risk assessment chart tool has previously been developed to make screening more affordable in developing countries. Task shifting to community health workers (CHWs) is being investigated to further scale CVD risk screening. This study aimed to develop a mobile phone CVD risk assessment application and to evaluate its impact on CHW training and the duration of screening for CVD in the community by CHWs. A feature phone application was developed using the open source online platform, CommCare(©). CHWs (n=24) were trained to use both paper-based and mobile phone CVD risk assessment tools. They were randomly allocated to using one of the risk tools to screen 10-20 community members and then crossed over to screen the same number, using the alternate risk tool. The impact on CHW training time, screening time and margin of error in calculating risk scores was recorded. A focus group discussion evaluated experiences of CHWs using the two tools. The training time was 12.3h for the paper-based chart tool and 3h for the mobile phone application. 537 people were screened. The mean screening time was 36 min (SD=12.6) using the paper-base chart tool and 21 min (SD=8.71) using the mobile phone application, p=<0.0001. Incorrect calculations (4.3% of average systolic BP measurements, 10.4% of BMI and 3.8% of CVD risk score) were found when using the paper-based chart tool while all the mobile phone calculations were correct. Qualitative findings from the focus group discussion corresponded with the findings of the pilot study. The reduction in CHW training time, CVD risk screening time, lack of errors in calculation of a CVD risk score and end user satisfaction when using a mobile phone application, has implications in terms of adoption and sustainability of this primary prevention strategy to identify people with high CVD risk who can be referred for appropriate diagnoses and treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the use of mobile phone technology to enhance cardiovascular disease screening by community health workers

PubMed Central

Surka, Sam; Edirippulige, Sisira; Steyn, Krisela; Gaziano, Thomas; Puoane, Thandi; Levitt, Naomi

2014-01-01

Background Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD),by identifying individuals at risk is a well-established, but costly strategy when based on measurements that depend on laboratory analyses. A non-laboratory, paper-based CVD risk assessment chart tool has previously been developed to make screening more affordable in developing countries. Task shifting to community health workers (CHWs) is being investigated to further scale CVD risk screening. This study aimed to develop a mobile phone CVD risk assessment application and to evaluate it’s impact on CHW training and the duration of screening for CVD in the community by CHWs. Methods A feature phone application was developed using the open source online platform, CommCare©. CHWs (n=24) were trained to use both paper-based and mobile phone CVD risk assessment tools. They were randomly allocated to using one of the risk tools to screen 10-20 community members and then crossed over to screen the same number, using the alternate risk tool. The impact on CHW training time, screening time and margin of error in calculating risk scores was recorded. A focus group discussion evaluated experiences of CHWs using the two tools. Results The training time was 12.3 hrs for the paper-based chart tool and 3 hours for the mobile phone application. 537 people were screened. The mean screening time was 36 minutes (SD=12.6) using the paper-base chart tool and 21 minutes (SD=8.71) using the mobile phone application , p = <0.0001. Incorrect calculations (4.3 % of average systolic BP measurements, 10.4 % of BMI and 3.8% of CVD risk score) were found when using the paper-based chart tool while all the mobile phone calculations were correct. Qualitative findings from the focus group discussion corresponded with the findings of the pilot study. Conclusion The reduction in CHW training time, CVD risk screening time, lack of errors in calculation of a CVD risk score and end user satisfaction when using a mobile phone application, has implications in terms of adoption and sustainability of this primary prevention strategy to identify people with high CVD risk who can be referred for appropriate diagnoses and treatment. PMID:25002305

Evidence-Based Evaluation of Inferior Vena Cava Filter Complications Based on Filter Type

PubMed Central

Deso, Steven E.; Idakoji, Ibrahim A.; Kuo, William T.

2016-01-01

Many inferior vena cava (IVC) filter types, along with their specific risks and complications, are not recognized. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the various FDA-approved IVC filter types to determine device-specific risks, as a way to help identify patients who may benefit from ongoing follow-up versus prompt filter retrieval. An evidence-based electronic search (FDA Premarket Notification, MEDLINE, FDA MAUDE) was performed to identify all IVC filter types and device-specific complications from 1980 to 2014. Twenty-three IVC filter types (14 retrievable, 9 permanent) were identified. The devices were categorized as follows: conical (n = 14), conical with umbrella (n = 1), conical with cylindrical element (n = 2), biconical with cylindrical element (n = 2), helical (n = 1), spiral (n = 1), and complex (n = 1). Purely conical filters were associated with the highest reported risks of penetration (90–100%). Filters with cylindrical or umbrella elements were associated with the highest reported risk of IVC thrombosis (30–50%). Conical Bard filters were associated with the highest reported risks of fracture (40%). The various FDA-approved IVC filter types were evaluated for device-specific complications based on best current evidence. This information can be used to guide and optimize clinical management in patients with indwelling IVC filters. PMID:27247477

Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

2018-01-01

Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

[Chemical risk in farming].

PubMed

Moretto, Angelo

2013-01-01

The most important chemical risks in agriculture are plant protection products. Exposure evaluation in agriculture is not an easy task and cannot be carried out with the tools and methodologies of industrial exposures. However, toxicological studies on plant protection products, that are compulsory, provide a lot of useful information for actual risk assessment. Exposure evaluation can be carried out on the basis of exposure models and on semiquantitative measures based on the observation of the activity as it is carried our by the farmer. It is therefore possible to develop risk profiles that can guide exposure evaluation and health surveillance. Concentrated animal feeding operations are associated with several chemical risks including disinfectants, antibiotics, and gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, in addition to organic dusts and endotoxins.

Spatially explicit risk assessment of an estuarine fish in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, following the Deepwater Horizon Oil spill: evaluating tradeoffs in model complexity and parsimony

EPA Science Inventory

As ecological risk assessments (ERA) move beyond organism-based determinations towards probabilistic population-level assessments, model complexity must be evaluated against the goals of the assessment, the information available to parameterize components with minimal dependence ...

Meat consumption as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Barnard, Neal; Levin, Susan; Trapp, Caroline

2014-02-21

Disease risk factors identified in epidemiological studies serve as important public health tools, helping clinicians identify individuals who may benefit from more aggressive screening or risk-modification procedures, allowing policymakers to prioritize intervention programs, and encouraging at-risk individuals to modify behavior and improve their health. These factors have been based primarily on evidence from cross-sectional and prospective studies, as most do not lend themselves to randomized trials. While some risk factors are not modifiable, eating habits are subject to change through both individual action and broader policy initiatives. Meat consumption has been frequently investigated as a variable associated with diabetes risk, but it has not yet been described as a diabetes risk factor. In this article, we evaluate the evidence supporting the use of meat consumption as a clinically useful risk factor for type 2 diabetes, based on studies evaluating the risks associated with meat consumption as a categorical dietary characteristic (i.e., meat consumption versus no meat consumption), as a scalar variable (i.e., gradations of meat consumption), or as part of a broader dietary pattern.

Meat Consumption as a Risk Factor for Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Barnard, Neal; Levin, Susan; Trapp, Caroline

2014-01-01

Disease risk factors identified in epidemiological studies serve as important public health tools, helping clinicians identify individuals who may benefit from more aggressive screening or risk-modification procedures, allowing policymakers to prioritize intervention programs, and encouraging at-risk individuals to modify behavior and improve their health. These factors have been based primarily on evidence from cross-sectional and prospective studies, as most do not lend themselves to randomized trials. While some risk factors are not modifiable, eating habits are subject to change through both individual action and broader policy initiatives. Meat consumption has been frequently investigated as a variable associated with diabetes risk, but it has not yet been described as a diabetes risk factor. In this article, we evaluate the evidence supporting the use of meat consumption as a clinically useful risk factor for type 2 diabetes, based on studies evaluating the risks associated with meat consumption as a categorical dietary characteristic (i.e., meat consumption versus no meat consumption), as a scalar variable (i.e., gradations of meat consumption), or as part of a broader dietary pattern. PMID:24566443

Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, J.

2006-12-01

Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its residual lifetime.

Developing an Android-Based Patient Decision Aid Based on Ottawa Standards for Patients After Kidney Transplant and Its Usability Evaluation.

PubMed

Zare Moayedi, Mahboobeh; Aslani, Azam; Fakhrahmad, Mostafa; Ezzatzadegan J, Shahrokh

2018-01-01

This study was conducted to develop an android based patient decision aid (PDA) as a self-care instrument for patients after kidney transplant and its usability evaluation. In this study, the systematic development process of Android-based self-care application for patients after kidney transplant based on Ottawa standard was included: scoping, assemble steering group, analysis of requirements, designing, develop of a prototype and system evaluation. The PDA is a self-triage system that will help early identification of risk symptoms in patients, and help manage them. System recommendations for risk signs are: Refer to the nearest hospital or healthcare center without delay, refer to the doctor and tell your doctor in the next visit. To identify patient care needs, a semi-structured interview with members of steering group, including patients and clinical experts, was conducted by the researchers. A prototype of the decision aid was made according to identified needs in the previous step. Finally, in order to evaluate its usability rate by using the System Usability Scale (SUS) questionnaire, it was used by exerts and patients. This study identified information needs, risk signs and steps that patients need to make appropriate decisions about them. The main capabilities of the decision aid are features such as reminders for appointment/test, time of taking medication, registration of symptoms, weight, blood pressure, body temperature, advising to patient in case of signs of risk, weight, blood pressure, body temperature and test results which were reported in the diagram. The mean score of system's usability evaluated by medical informatics specialists, clinicians, and patients were 88.33, 95, and 91. PDAs was usable and desirable from the point of view of medical informatics specialists, clinicians and patients.

Falling Down on the Job: Evaluation and Treatment of Fall Risk Among Older Adults With Upper Extremity Fragility Fractures.

PubMed

McDonough, Christine M; Colla, Carrie H; Carmichael, Donald; Tosteson, Anna N A; Tosteson, Tor D; Bell, John-Erik; Cantu, Robert V; Lurie, Jonathan D; Bynum, Julie P W

2017-03-01

Clinical practice guidelines recommend fall risk assessment and intervention for older adults who sustain a fall-related injury to prevent future injury and mobility decline. The aim of this study was to describe how often Medicare beneficiaries with upper extremity fracture receive evaluation and treatment for fall risk. Observational cohort. Participants were fee-for-service beneficiaries age 66 to 99 treated as outpatients for proximal humerus or distal radius/ulna ("wrist") fragility fractures. -Participants were studied using Carrier and Outpatient Hospital files. The proportion of patients evaluated or treated for fall risk up to 6 months after proximal humerus or wrist fracture from 2007-2009 was examined based on evaluation, treatment, and diagnosis codes. Time to evaluation and number of treatment sessions were calculated. Logistic regression was used to analyze patient characteristics that predicted receiving evaluation or treatment. Narrow (gait training) and broad (gait training or therapeutic exercise) definitions of service were used. There were 309,947 beneficiaries who sustained proximal humerus (32%) or wrist fracture (68%); 10.7% received evaluation or treatment for fall risk or gait issues (humerus: 14.2%; wrist: 9.0%). Using the broader definition, the percentage increased to 18.5% (humerus: 23.4%; wrist: 16.3%). Factors associated with higher likelihood of services after fracture were: evaluation or treatment for falls or gait prior to fracture, more comorbidities, prior nursing home stay, older age, humerus fracture (vs wrist), female sex, and white race. Claims analysis may underestimate physician and physical therapist fall assessments, but it is not likely to qualitatively change the results. A small proportion of older adults with upper extremity fracture received fall risk assessment and treatment. Providers and health systems must advance efforts to provide timely evidence-based management of fall risk in this population. © 2017 American Physical Therapy Association

Falling Down on the Job: Evaluation and Treatment of Fall Risk Among Older Adults With Upper Extremity Fragility Fractures

PubMed Central

Colla, Carrie H.; Carmichael, Donald; Tosteson, Anna N. A.; Tosteson, Tor D.; Bell, John-Erik; Cantu, Robert V.; Lurie, Jonathan D.; Bynum, Julie P. W.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Clinical practice guidelines recommend fall risk assessment and intervention for older adults who sustain a fall-related injury to prevent future injury and mobility decline. Objective: The aim of this study was to describe how often Medicare beneficiaries with upper extremity fracture receive evaluation and treatment for fall risk. Design: Observational cohort. Methods: Participants were fee-for-service beneficiaries age 66 to 99 treated as outpatients for proximal humerus or distal radius/ulna (“wrist”) fragility fractures. -Participants were studied using Carrier and Outpatient Hospital files. The proportion of patients evaluated or treated for fall risk up to 6 months after proximal humerus or wrist fracture from 2007–2009 was examined based on evaluation, treatment, and diagnosis codes. Time to evaluation and number of treatment sessions were calculated. Logistic regression was used to analyze patient characteristics that predicted receiving evaluation or treatment. Narrow (gait training) and broad (gait training or therapeutic exercise) definitions of service were used. Results: There were 309,947 beneficiaries who sustained proximal humerus (32%) or wrist fracture (68%); 10.7% received evaluation or treatment for fall risk or gait issues (humerus: 14.2%; wrist: 9.0%). Using the broader definition, the percentage increased to 18.5% (humerus: 23.4%; wrist: 16.3%). Factors associated with higher likelihood of services after fracture were: evaluation or treatment for falls or gait prior to fracture, more comorbidities, prior nursing home stay, older age, humerus fracture (vs wrist), female sex, and white race. Limitations: Claims analysis may underestimate physician and physical therapist fall assessments, but it is not likely to qualitatively change the results. Conclusions: A small proportion of older adults with upper extremity fracture received fall risk assessment and treatment. Providers and health systems must advance efforts to provide timely evidence-based management of fall risk in this population. PMID:28340130

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

PubMed

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors.

PubMed

Lentine, Krista L; Kasiske, Bertram L; Levey, Andrew S; Adams, Patricia L; Alberú, Josefina; Bakr, Mohamed A; Gallon, Lorenzo; Garvey, Catherine A; Guleria, Sandeep; Li, Philip Kam-Tao; Segev, Dorry L; Taler, Sandra J; Tanabe, Kazunari; Wright, Linda; Zeier, Martin G; Cheung, Michael; Garg, Amit X

2017-08-01

The 2017 Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors is intended to assist medical professionals who evaluate living kidney donor candidates and provide care before, during and after donation. The guideline development process followed the Grades of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach and guideline recommendations are based on systematic reviews of relevant studies that included critical appraisal of the quality of the evidence and the strength of recommendations. However, many recommendations, for which there was no evidence or no systematic search for evidence was undertaken by the Evidence Review Team, were issued as ungraded expert opinion recommendations. The guideline work group concluded that a comprehensive approach to risk assessment should replace decisions based on assessments of single risk factors in isolation. Original data analyses were undertaken to produce a "proof-in-concept" risk-prediction model for kidney failure to support a framework for quantitative risk assessment in the donor candidate evaluation and defensible shared decision making. This framework is grounded in the simultaneous consideration of each candidate's profile of demographic and health characteristics. The processes and framework for the donor candidate evaluation are presented, along with recommendations for optimal care before, during, and after donation. Limitations of the evidence are discussed, especially regarding the lack of definitive prospective studies and clinical outcome trials. Suggestions for future research, including the need for continued refinement of long-term risk prediction and novel approaches to estimating donation-attributable risks, are also provided.In citing this document, the following format should be used: Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Living Kidney Donor Work Group. KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors. Transplantation. 2017;101(Suppl 8S):S1-S109.

Breastfeeding and breast cancer risk: an evaluation based on a systematic review of epidemiologic evidence among the Japanese population.

PubMed

Nagata, Chisato; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Tanaka, Keitaro; Tsuji, Ichiro; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Wakai, Kenji; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2012-02-01

We reviewed epidemiological studies on breastfeeding and breast cancer among Japanese women. This report is part of a series of articles written by our research group, whose aim was to evaluate the existing evidence concerning the association between health-related lifestyles and cancer. Original data were obtained from MEDLINE searches using PubMed or from searches of the Ichushi database, complemented by manual searches. Evaluation of associations was based on the strength of evidence and the magnitude of association, together with biological plausibility. Three cohort studies and five case-control studies were identified. Cohort studies failed to find a significant inverse association between breastfeeding and the risk of breast cancer. Most of the case-control studies observed a statistically significant or non-significant risk reduction for women who ever had breastfed or for women with a longer duration of breastfeeding. Experimental studies have supported the biological plausibility of a protective effect of breastfeeding on breast cancer risk. We conclude that breastfeeding possibly decreases the risk of breast cancer among Japanese women.

Effects and Risk Evaluation of Oil Spillage in the Sea Areas of Changxing Island

PubMed Central

Wang, Hanxi; Xu, Jianling; Zhao, Wenkui; Zhang, Jiquan

2014-01-01

This paper evaluated the oil spillage risk in the waters near the island of Changxing in Dalian (China) based on the established risk assessment index. Four wind regimes (windless, northerly wind, westerly wind and southerly wind) were selected as weather conditions for the dynamic prediction of oil drift. If an oil spill occurs near the Koumen (a place near the island of Changxing), the forecast and evaluation are conducted based on a three-dimensional mathematical model of oil spillage, and the results obtained show the scope of the affected area when winds from various directions are applied. The oil spillage would, under various conditions, flow into the northern and western sea area of Changxing Island Bay, namely the Dalian harbor seal National Nature Reserve, and create adverse effects on the marine ecological environment. The rationality of combining the established oil spillage risk comprehensive index system with model prediction is further confirmed. Finally, preventive measures and quick fixes are presented in the case of accidental oil spillages. The most effective method to reduce environment risk is to adopt reasonable preventive measures and quick fixes. PMID:25153473

Toxicological Risks During Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.; Limero, T. F.; Lam, C. W.; Billica, Roger (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The goal of toxicological risk assessment of human space flight is to identify and quantify significant risks to astronaut health from air pollution inside the vehicle or habitat, and to develop a strategy for control of those risks. The approach to completing a toxicological risk assessment involves data and experience on the frequency and severity of toxicological incidents that have occurred during space flight. Control of these incidents depends on being able to understand their cause from in-flight and ground-based analysis of air samples, crew reports of air quality, and known failures in containment of toxic chemicals. Toxicological risk assessment in exploration missions must be based on an evaluation of the unique toxic hazards presented by the habitat location. For example, lunar and Martian dust must be toxicologically evaluated to determine the appropriate control measures for exploration missions. Experience with near-earth flights has shown that the toxic products from fires present the highest risk to crew health from air pollution. Systems and payload leaks also present a significant hazard. The health risk from toxicity associated with materials offgassing or accumulation of human metabolites is generally well controlled. Early tests of lunar and Martian dust simulants have shown that each posses the potential to cause fibrosis in the lung in a murine model. Toxicological risks from air pollutants in space habitats originate from many sources. A number of risks have been identified through near-earth operations; however, the evaluation of additional new risks present during exploration missions will be a challenge.

Evaluation of a School-Based Asthma Education Protocol: "Iggy and the Inhalers"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mickel, Catherine F.; Shanovich, Kathleen K.; Evans, Michael D.; Jackson, Daniel J.

2017-01-01

School-based asthma education offers an opportunity to reach low-income children at risk for poor asthma control. "Iggy and the Inhalers" (Iggy) is an asthma education program that was implemented in a Midwest metropolitan school district. The purpose of this evaluation was to conduct a comprehensive program evaluation. Objectives…

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA): Challenges and New Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campola, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) challenges associated with the use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components and emerging technologies are cause for risk acceptance in space flight missions. The RHA flow includes environment definition, hazard evaluation, requirements definition, evaluation of design, and design trades to accommodate the risk a project or program takes. The varied missions profiles and environments don't necessarily benefit from the same risk reduction efforts or cost reduction attempts. The level of effort within the RHA flow can be tailored to minimize risk based on the environment or design criticality.

Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

2017-04-01

In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1991-01-01

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

2016-07-01

Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reputationally Strong HIV Prevention Programs: Lessons from the Front Line

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eke, Agatha N.; Mezoff, Jane S.; Duncan, Ted; Sogolow, Ellen D.

2006-01-01

Although HIV prevention researchers have conducted numerous controlled outcome studies to evaluate the effectiveness of theory-based interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behaviors, many HIV risk reduction interventions are conducted not by researchers but by staff in local health departments or community-based organizations (CBOs). Despite…

Cost-benefit analysis of biopsy methods for suspicious mammographic lesions; discussion 994-5.

PubMed

Fahy, B N; Bold, R J; Schneider, P D; Khatri, V; Goodnight, J E

2001-09-01

Stereotactic core biopsy (SCB) is more cost-effective than needle-localized biopsy (NLB) for evaluation and treatment of mammographic lesions. A computer-generated mathematical model was developed based on clinical outcome modeling to estimate costs accrued during evaluation and treatment of suspicious mammographic lesions. Total costs were determined for evaluation and subsequent treatment of cancer when either SCB or NLB was used as the initial biopsy method. Cost was estimated by the cumulative work relative value units accrued. The risk of malignancy based on the Breast Imaging Reporting Data System (BIRADS) score and mammographic suspicion of ductal carcinoma in situ were varied to simulate common clinical scenarios. Total cost accumulated during evaluation and subsequent surgical therapy (if required). Evaluation of BIRADS 5 lesions (highly suggestive, risk of malignancy = 90%) resulted in equivalent relative value units for both techniques (SCB, 15.54; NLB, 15.47). Evaluation of lesions highly suspicious for ductal carcinoma in situ yielded similar total treatment relative value units (SCB, 11.49; NLB, 10.17). Only for evaluation of BIRADS 4 lesions (suspicious abnormality, risk of malignancy = 34%) was SCB more cost-effective than NLB (SCB, 7.65 vs. NLB, 15.66). No difference in cost-benefit was found when lesions highly suggestive of malignancy (BIRADS 5) or those suspicious for ductal carcinoma in situ were evaluated initially with SCB vs. NLB, thereby disproving the hypothesis. Only for intermediate-risk lesions (BIRADS 4) did initial evaluation with SCB yield a greater cost savings than with NLB.

Incorporation of Personal Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) Data into a National Level Electronic Health Record for Disease Risk Assessment, Part 3: An Evaluation of SNP Incorporated National Health Information System of Turkey for Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Beyan, Timur

2014-01-01

Background A personalized medicine approach provides opportunities for predictive and preventive medicine. Using genomic, clinical, environmental, and behavioral data, the tracking and management of individual wellness is possible. A prolific way to carry this personalized approach into routine practices can be accomplished by integrating clinical interpretations of genomic variations into electronic medical records (EMRs)/electronic health records (EHRs). Today, various central EHR infrastructures have been constituted in many countries of the world, including Turkey. Objective As an initial attempt to develop a sophisticated infrastructure, we have concentrated on incorporating the personal single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data into the National Health Information System of Turkey (NHIS-T) for disease risk assessment, and evaluated the performance of various predictive models for prostate cancer cases. We present our work as a three part miniseries: (1) an overview of requirements, (2) the incorporation of SNP data into the NHIS-T, and (3) an evaluation of SNP data incorporated into the NHIS-T for prostate cancer. Methods In the third article of this miniseries, we have evaluated the proposed complementary capabilities (ie, knowledge base and end-user application) with real data. Before the evaluation phase, clinicogenomic associations about increased prostate cancer risk were extracted from knowledge sources, and published predictive genomic models assessing individual prostate cancer risk were collected. To evaluate complementary capabilities, we also gathered personal SNP data of four prostate cancer cases and fifteen controls. Using these data files, we compared various independent and model-based, prostate cancer risk assessment approaches. Results Through the extraction and selection processes of SNP-prostate cancer risk associations, we collected 209 independent associations for increased risk of prostate cancer from the studied knowledge sources. Also, we gathered six cumulative models and two probabilistic models. Cumulative models and assessment of independent associations did not have impressive results. There was one of the probabilistic, model-based interpretation that was successful compared to the others. In envirobehavioral and clinical evaluations, we found that some of the comorbidities, especially, would be useful to evaluate disease risk. Even though we had a very limited dataset, a comparison of performances of different disease models and their implementation with real data as use case scenarios helped us to gain deeper insight into the proposed architecture. Conclusions In order to benefit from genomic variation data, existing EHR/EMR systems must be constructed with the capability of tracking and monitoring all aspects of personal health status (genomic, clinical, environmental, etc) in 24/7 situations, and also with the capability of suggesting evidence-based recommendations. A national-level, accredited knowledge base is a top requirement for improved end-user systems interpreting these parameters. Finally, categorization using similar, individual characteristics (SNP patterns, exposure history, etc) may be an effective way to predict disease risks, but this approach needs to be concretized and supported with new studies. PMID:25600087

Health Risk-Based Assessment and Management of Heavy Metals-Contaminated Soil Sites in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lai, Hung-Yu; Hseu, Zeng-Yei; Chen, Ting-Chien; Chen, Bo-Ching; Guo, Horng-Yuh; Chen, Zueng-Sang

2010-01-01

Risk-based assessment is a way to evaluate the potential hazards of contaminated sites and is based on considering linkages between pollution sources, pathways, and receptors. These linkages can be broken by source reduction, pathway management, and modifying exposure of the receptors. In Taiwan, the Soil and Groundwater Pollution Remediation Act (SGWPR Act) uses one target regulation to evaluate the contamination status of soil and groundwater pollution. More than 600 sites contaminated with heavy metals (HMs) have been remediated and the costs of this process are always high. Besides using soil remediation techniques to remove contaminants from these sites, the selection of possible remediation methods to obtain rapid risk reduction is permissible and of increasing interest. This paper discusses previous soil remediation techniques applied to different sites in Taiwan and also clarified the differences of risk assessment before and after soil remediation obtained by applying different risk assessment models. This paper also includes many case studies on: (1) food safety risk assessment for brown rice growing in a HMs-contaminated site; (2) a tiered approach to health risk assessment for a contaminated site; (3) risk assessment for phytoremediation techniques applied in HMs-contaminated sites; and (4) soil remediation cost analysis for contaminated sites in Taiwan. PMID:21139851

Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

PubMed

Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-Wen

2016-01-25

The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Obstetric simulation as a risk control strategy: course design and evaluation.

PubMed

Gardner, Roxane; Walzer, Toni B; Simon, Robert; Raemer, Daniel B

2008-01-01

Patient safety initiatives aimed at reducing medical errors and adverse events are being implemented in Obstetrics. The Controlled Risk Insurance Company (CRICO), Risk Management Foundation (RMF) of the Harvard Medical Institutions pursued simulation as an anesthesia risk control strategy. Encouraged by their success, CRICO/RMF promoted simulation-based team training as a risk control strategy for obstetrical providers. We describe the development, implementation, and evaluation of an obstetric simulation-based team training course grounded in crisis resource management (CRM) principles. We pursued systematic design of course development, implementation, and evaluation in 3 phases, including a 1-year or more posttraining follow-up with self-assessment questionnaires. The course was highly rated overall by participants immediately after the course and 1-year or more after the course. Most survey responders reported having experienced a critical clinical event since the course and that various aspects of their teamwork had significantly or somewhat improved as a result of the course. Most (86%) reported CRM principles as useful for obstetric faculty and most (59%) recommended repeating the simulation course every 2 years. A simulation-based team-training course for obstetric clinicians was developed and is a central component of CRICO/RMF's obstetric risk management incentive program that provides a 10% reduction in annual obstetrical malpractice premiums. The course was highly regarded immediately and 1 year or more after completing the course. Most survey responders reported improved teamwork and communication in managing a critical obstetric event in the interval since taking the course. Simulation-based CRM training can serve as a strategy for mitigating adverse perinatal events.

Risk Reduction and Resource Pooling on a Cooperation Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pietras, Cynthia J.; Cherek, Don R.; Lane, Scott D.; Tcheremissine, Oleg

2006-01-01

Two experiments investigated choice in adult humans on a simulated cooperation task to evaluate a risk-reduction account of sharing based on the energy-budget rule. The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts risk-averse choices when net energy gains exceed energy requirements (positive energy budget) and risk-prone choices…

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

PubMed

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and preliminary validation of an index for indicating the risks of the design of working hours to health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Schomann, Carsten; Giebel, Ole; Nachreiner, Friedhelm

2006-01-01

BASS 4, a computer program for the design and evaluation of workings hours, is an example of an ergonomics-based software tool that can be used by safety practitioners at the shop floor with regard to legal, ergonomic, and economic criteria. Based on experiences with this computer program, a less sophisticated Working-Hours-Risk Index for assessing the quality of work schedules (including flexible work hours) to indicate risks to health and wellbeing has been developed to provide a quick and easy applicable tool for legally required risk assessments. The results of a validation study show that this risk index seems to be a promising indicator for predicting risks of health complaints and wellbeing. The purpose of the Risk Index is to simplify the evaluation process at the shop floor and provide some more general information about the quality of a work schedule that can be used for triggering preventive interventions. Such a risk index complies with practitioners' expectations and requests for easy, useful, and valid instruments.

Adherence index based on the American Heart Association 2006 diet and lifestyle recommendations: associations with cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Boston Puerto Rican health study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In 2006, the AHA released diet and lifestyle recommendations (AHA-DLR) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction. The effect of adherence to these recommendations on CVD risk is unknown. Our objective was to develop a unique diet and lifestyle score based on the AHA-DLR and to evaluate this sc...

Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

[The PreFord Study. A prospective cohort study to evaluate the risk of a cardiovascular event (overall-collective) as well as a prospective, randomized, controlled, multicentre clinical intervention study (high-risk-collective) on primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in the Ford Motor Company employees in Germany].

PubMed

Gysan, D B; Latsch, J; Bjarnason-Wehrens, B; Albus, C; Falkowski, G; Herold, G; Mey, E; Heinzler, R; Montiel, G; Schneider, C A; Stützer, H; Türk, S; Weisbrod, M; Predel, H G

2004-02-01

The PreFord Study is a multicenter prospective cohort study to evaluate guideline based risk management on primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore a randomised controlled trial (RCT) will be designed to analyse the effect of a special intervention program. 40,000 employees of the Ford Motor Company, Visteon Company and Deutz Company in Germany will be included, monitored for ten years and the following primary endpoints will be investigated: 1. evaluation and comparison of established and newly developed risk-scores, 2. the relative impact of single and combined cardiovascular risk factors on cardiovascular diseases, 3. the influence of a novel occupationally integrated ambulant rehabilitation program in combination with a guideline oriented optimal drug therapy within a high risk group on the primary endpoint: risk reduction by, 4. the influence of this intervention on secondary endpoints: death, myocardial infarction and stroke, combined appearance of angina pectoris and hospitalisation, occurrence of cerebral circulatory disorder and hospitalisation, occurrence of peripheral occlusive arterial disease and hospitalisation and single cardiovascular risk factors and cost-benefit-analysis. Beginning with an cross sectional study there will be a systemic screening of cardiovascular risk profiles, of anthropometric data and different lifestyle-factors. Based on these data participants will be differentiated into three risk-groups according to the risk score of the European Society of Cardiology (risk of a lethal primary acute cardiovascular event: I < or = 1%; II > 1-< 5% and III > or = 5%). In the following longitudinal study different strategies will be applied: Group I: low risk (< 0.5% per year): repetition of the investigation after five and ten years. Group II: middle risk, (0.6% to 1.4% per year), repetition of the investigation every two years, instruction of the patients general practitioner (GP) with respect to a risk factor oriented and evidence based treatment. Group III: high risk, (> 1.5% per year or >15% within the next 10 years) will be randomised into two interventional groups. The first one, the intervention-group "PreFord" will perform an occupational integrated rehabilitation program (2,5-3 hours twice a week, for 15 weeks according to the BAR guidelines) with a following engagement in heart-groups and an annual repetition of the check-ups. The second group, the "classic" intervention-group will be treated evidence based in cooperation with their GP. As a result of this long term interventional study efficient, area wide implementable and economically feasible prevention concepts with special regards to operational healthcare will be developed and evaluated. Core elements will be exercise- and lifestyle-oriented concepts as well as guideline-based pharmacotherapy.

Evaluation of Smoking Prevention Television Messages Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flynn, Brian S.; Worden, John K.; Bunn, Janice Yanushka; Connolly, Scott W.; Dorwaldt, Anne L.

2011-01-01

Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from…

[Establish research model of post-marketing clinical safety evaluation for Chinese patent medicine].

PubMed

Zheng, Wen-ke; Liu, Zhi; Lei, Xiang; Tian, Ran; Zheng, Rui; Li, Nan; Ren, Jing-tian; Du, Xiao-xi; Shang, Hong-cai

2015-09-01

The safety of Chinese patent medicine has become a focus of social. It is necessary to carry out work on post-marketing clinical safety evaluation for Chinese patent medicine. However, there have no criterions to guide the related research, it is urgent to set up a model and method to guide the practice for related research. According to a series of clinical research, we put forward some views, which contained clear and definite the objective and content of clinical safety evaluation, the work flow should be determined, make a list of items for safety evaluation project, and put forward the three level classification of risk control. We set up a model of post-marketing clinical safety evaluation for Chinese patent medicine. Based this model, the list of items can be used for ranking medicine risks, and then take steps for different risks, aims to lower the app:ds:risksrisk level. At last, the medicine can be managed by five steps in sequence. The five steps are, collect risk signal, risk recognition, risk assessment, risk management, and aftereffect assessment. We hope to provide new ideas for the future research.

A nomogram based on mammary ductoscopic indicators for evaluating the risk of breast cancer in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge.

PubMed

Lian, Zhen-Qiang; Wang, Qi; Zhang, An-Qin; Zhang, Jiang-Yu; Han, Xiao-Rong; Yu, Hai-Yun; Xie, Si-Mei

2015-04-01

Mammary ductoscopy (MD) is commonly used to detect intraductal lesions associated with nipple discharge. This study investigated the relationships between ductoscopic image-based indicators and breast cancer risk, and developed a nomogram for evaluating breast cancer risk in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge. A total of 879 consecutive inpatients (916 breasts) with nipple discharge who underwent selective duct excision for intraductal neoplasms detected by MD from June 2008 to April 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. A nomogram was developed using a multivariate logistic regression model based on data from a training set (687 cases) and validated in an independent validation set (229 cases). A Youden-derived cut-off value was assigned to the nomogram for the diagnosis of breast cancer. Color of discharge, location, appearance, and surface of neoplasm, and morphology of ductal wall were independent predictors for breast cancer in multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram based on these predictors performed well. The P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the prediction model was 0.36. Area under the curve values of 0.812 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.763-0.860) and 0.738 (95 % CI 0.635-0.841) was obtained in the training and validation sets, respectively. The accuracies of the nomogram for breast cancer diagnosis were 71.2 % in the training set and 75.5 % in the validation set. We developed a nomogram for evaluating breast cancer risk in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge based on MD image findings. This model may aid individual risk assessment and guide treatment in clinical practice.

Environmental risk assessment of selected organic chemicals based on TOC test and QSAR estimation models.

PubMed

Chi, Yulang; Zhang, Huanteng; Huang, Qiansheng; Lin, Yi; Ye, Guozhu; Zhu, Huimin; Dong, Sijun

2018-02-01

Environmental risks of organic chemicals have been greatly determined by their persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (PBT) and physicochemical properties. Major regulations in different countries and regions identify chemicals according to their bioconcentration factor (BCF) and octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), which frequently displays a substantial correlation with the sediment sorption coefficient (Koc). Half-life or degradability is crucial for the persistence evaluation of chemicals. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) estimation models are indispensable for predicting environmental fate and health effects in the absence of field- or laboratory-based data. In this study, 39 chemicals of high concern were chosen for half-life testing based on total organic carbon (TOC) degradation, and two widely accepted and highly used QSAR estimation models (i.e., EPI Suite and PBT Profiler) were adopted for environmental risk evaluation. The experimental results and estimated data, as well as the two model-based results were compared, based on the water solubility, Kow, Koc, BCF and half-life. Environmental risk assessment of the selected compounds was achieved by combining experimental data and estimation models. It was concluded that both EPI Suite and PBT Profiler were fairly accurate in measuring the physicochemical properties and degradation half-lives for water, soil, and sediment. However, the half-lives between the experimental and the estimated results were still not absolutely consistent. This suggests deficiencies of the prediction models in some ways, and the necessity to combine the experimental data and predicted results for the evaluation of environmental fate and risks of pollutants. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Human risk factors associated with pilots in runway excursions.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Hern; Yang, Hui-Hua; Hsiao, Yu-Jung

2016-09-01

A breakdown analysis of civil aviation accidents worldwide indicates that the occurrence of runway excursions represents the largest portion among all aviation occurrence categories. This study examines the human risk factors associated with pilots in runway excursions, by applying a SHELLO model to categorize the human risk factors and to evaluate the importance based on the opinions of 145 airline pilots. This study integrates aviation management level expert opinions on relative weighting and improvement-achievability in order to develop four kinds of priority risk management strategies for airline pilots to reduce runway excursions. The empirical study based on experts' evaluation suggests that the most important dimension is the liveware/pilot's core ability. From the perspective of front-line pilots, the most important risk factors are the environment, wet/containment runways, and weather issues like rain/thunderstorms. Finally, this study develops practical strategies for helping management authorities to improve major operational and managerial weaknesses so as to reduce the human risks related to runway excursions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Auditing Rules for Electronic Health Record Systems

PubMed Central

Hedda, Monica; Malin, Bradley A.; Yan, Chao; Fabbri, Daniel

2017-01-01

Healthcare organizations (HCOs) often deploy rule-based auditing systems to detect insider threats to sensitive patient health information in electronic health record (EHR) systems. These rule-based systems define behavior deemed to be high-risk a priori (e.g., family member, co-worker access). While such rules seem logical, there has been little scientific investigation into the effectiveness of these auditing rules in identifying inappropriate behavior. Thus, in this paper, we introduce an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of individual high-risk rules and rank them according to their potential risk. We investigate the rate of high-risk access patterns and minimum rate of high-risk accesses that can be explained with appropriate clinical reasons in a large EHR system. An analysis of 8M accesses from one-week of data shows that specific high-risk flags occur more frequently than theoretically expected and the rate at which accesses can be explained away with five simple reasons is 16 - 43%. PMID:29854153

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Auditing Rules for Electronic Health Record Systems.

PubMed

Hedda, Monica; Malin, Bradley A; Yan, Chao; Fabbri, Daniel

2017-01-01

Healthcare organizations (HCOs) often deploy rule-based auditing systems to detect insider threats to sensitive patient health information in electronic health record (EHR) systems. These rule-based systems define behavior deemed to be high-risk a priori (e.g., family member, co-worker access). While such rules seem logical, there has been little scientific investigation into the effectiveness of these auditing rules in identifying inappropriate behavior. Thus, in this paper, we introduce an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of individual high-risk rules and rank them according to their potential risk. We investigate the rate of high-risk access patterns and minimum rate of high-risk accesses that can be explained with appropriate clinical reasons in a large EHR system. An analysis of 8M accesses from one-week of data shows that specific high-risk flags occur more frequently than theoretically expected and the rate at which accesses can be explained away with five simple reasons is 16 - 43%.

Is the evaluation of risk of bias in periodontology and implant dentistry comprehensive? A systematic review.

PubMed

Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Listl, Stefan; Alarcón, Marco Antonio

2015-05-01

The objective of this study was to assess how authors of systematic reviews (SRs) with meta-analyses published in periodontology and implant dentistry evaluate risk of bias (ROB) in primary studies included in these reviews. A literature search for SRs with meta-analyses was performed in PubMed and Cochrane library databases up to July 20th 2014. The reference lists of included articles were screened for further reviews. The standards of evaluating ROB in primary studies were evaluated by using a 14-item checklist based on the Cochrane approach for evaluating ROB. Standards in ROB evaluations in Cochrane and paper-based SRs were compared using the Fisher's exact test. All searches, data extraction and evaluations were performed independently and in duplicate. Seventy SRs were included (45 paper-based and 25 Cochrane SRs, respectively). The median percentage of items addressed was 58% (interquartile range 4-100%). Cochrane SRs more frequently included ROB assessments than paper-based reviews in terms of examiner blinding (p = 0.0026), selective outcome reporting (p = 0.0207) and other bias (p = 0.0241). The ROB evaluation in primary studies currently included in SRs with meta-analyses in periodontology and implant dentistry is not sufficiently comprehensive. Cochrane SRs have more comprehensive ROB evaluation than paper-based reviews. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating the Risk and Attractiveness of Romantic Partners When Confronted with Contradictory Cues

PubMed Central

Hennessy, Michael; Fishbein, Martin; Curtis, Brenda; Barrett, Daniel W.

2010-01-01

Research shows that people engage in “risky” sex with “safe” partners and in “safer” sex with “riskier” partners. How is the determination of “risky” or “safe” status made? Factorial survey methodology was used to randomly construct descriptions of romantic partners based on attractive and/or risky characteristics. Respondents evaluated 20 descriptions for attractiveness, health risk, likelihood of going on a date, likelihood of unprotected sex, and likelihood of STD/HIV infection. Respondents were most attracted to and perceived the least risk from attractive descriptions and were least attracted to and perceived the most risk from the risky descriptions. The differences between the “conflicting information” descriptions are attributable to a primacy effect: descriptions that began with attractiveness information but end with risk information were evaluated more positively than those that began with risk and ended with attractive information. PMID:17028997

[Theoretical evaluation of the risk of decompression illness during simulated extravehicular activity].

PubMed

Nikolaev, V P

2008-01-01

Theoretical analysis of the risk of decompression illness (DI) during extravehicular activity following the Russian and NASA decompression protocols (D-R and D-US, respectively) was performed. In contrast to the tradition approach to decompression stress evaluation by the factor of tissue supersaturation with nitrogen, our probabilistic theory of decompression safety provides a completely reasoned evaluation and comparison of the levels of hazard of these decompression protocols. According to this theory, the function of cumulative DI risk is equal to the sum of functions of cumulative risk of lesion of all body tissues by gas bubbles and their supersaturation by solute gases. Based on modeling of dynamics of these functions, growth of the DI cumulative risk in the course of D-R and D-US follows essentially similar trajectories within the time-frame of up to 330 minutes. However, further extension of D-US but not D-R raises the risk of DI drastically.

Evaluating soil risks associated with severe wildfire and ground-based logging

Treesearch

Keith M. Reynolds; Paul F. Hessburg; Richard E. Miller; Robert T. Meurisse

2011-01-01

Rehabilitation and timber-salvage activities after wildfire require rapid planning and rational decisions. Identifying areas with high risk for erosion and soil productivity losses is important. Moreover, allocation of corrective and mitigative efforts must be rational and prioritized. Our logic-based analysis of forested soil polygons on the Okanogan-Wenatchee...

Effects of a Theory-Based, Peer-Focused Drug Education Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez, Gerardo M.

1990-01-01

Describes innovative, theory-based, peer-focused college drug education academic course and its effect on perceived levels of risk associated with the use of alcohol, marijuana, and cocaine. Evaluation of the effects of the course indicated the significant effect on perceived risk of cocaine, but not alcohol or marijuana. (Author/ABL)

A risk-based auditing process for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

PubMed

Vargo, Susan; Dana, Bob; Rangavajhula, Vijaya; Rönninger, Stephan

2014-01-01

The purpose of this article is to share ideas on developing a risk-based model for the scheduling of audits (both internal and external). Audits are a key element of a manufacturer's quality system and provide an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's or the supplier/vendor's compliance status. Suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches are discussed in the article. Pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to establish and implement a quality system. The quality system is an organizational structure defining responsibilities, procedures, processes, and resources that the manufacturer has established to ensure quality throughout the manufacturing process. Audits are a component of the manufacturer's quality system and provide a systematic and an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's overall quality system and compliance status. Audits are performed at defined intervals for a specified duration. The intention of the audit process is to focus on key areas within the quality system and may not cover all relevant areas during each audit. In this article, the authors provide suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches to aid pharmaceutical manufacturers in identifying the key focus areas for an audit.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

2015-01-01

Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

2015-02-03

Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-20

original variable. Residual risk can be exempli ed as a quanti cation of the improved situation faced by a hedging investor compared to that of a...distributional information about Yx for every x as well as the computational cost of evaluating R(Yx) for numerous x, for example within an optimization...Still, when g is costly to evaluate , it might be desirable to develop an approximation of R(Yx), x ∈ IRn through regression based on observations {xj

Simulation of enteric pathogen concentrations in locally-collected greywater and wastewater for microbial risk assessments

EPA Science Inventory

As decentralized water reuse continues to gain popularity, risk-based treatment guidance is increasingly sought for the protection of public health. However, efforts to evaluate pathogen risks and log-reduction requirements have been hindered by an incomplete understanding of pat...

Evaluation of a Drowning Prevention Program Based on Testimonial Videos: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Shen, Jiabin; Pang, Shulan; Schwebel, David C

2016-06-01

Unintentional drowning is the most common cause of childhood death in rural China. Global intervention efforts offer mixed results regarding the efficacy of educational programs. Using a randomized controlled design, we evaluated a testimonial-based intervention to reduce drowning risk among 280 3rd- and 4th-grade rural Chinese children. Children were randomly assigned to view either testimonials on drowning risk (intervention) or dog-bite risk (control). Safety knowledge and perceived vulnerability were measured by self-report questionnaires, and simulated behaviors in and near water were assessed with a culturally appropriate dollhouse task. Children in the intervention group had improved children's safety knowledge and simulated behaviors but not perceived vulnerability compared with controls. The testimonial-based intervention's efficacy appears promising, as it improved safety knowledge and simulated risk behaviors with water among rural Chinese children. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Clinical risk assessment of patients with chronic kidney disease by using clinical data and multivariate models.

PubMed

Chen, Zewei; Zhang, Xin; Zhang, Zhuoyong

2016-12-01

Timely risk assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and proper community-based CKD monitoring are important to prevent patients with potential risk from further kidney injuries. As many symptoms are associated with the progressive development of CKD, evaluating risk of CKD through a set of clinical data of symptoms coupled with multivariate models can be considered as an available method for prevention of CKD and would be useful for community-based CKD monitoring. Three common used multivariate models, i.e., K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA), were used to evaluate risk of 386 patients based on a series of clinical data taken from UCI machine learning repository. Different types of composite data, in which proportional disturbances were added to simulate measurement deviations caused by environment and instrument noises, were also utilized to evaluate the feasibility and robustness of these models in risk assessment of CKD. For the original data set, three mentioned multivariate models can differentiate patients with CKD and non-CKD with the overall accuracies over 93 %. KNN and SVM have better performances than SIMCA has in this study. For the composite data set, SVM model has the best ability to tolerate noise disturbance and thus are more robust than the other two models. Using clinical data set on symptoms coupled with multivariate models has been proved to be feasible approach for assessment of patient with potential CKD risk. SVM model can be used as useful and robust tool in this study.

Moving toward evidence-based federal Healthy Start program evaluations: accounting for bias in birth outcomes studies.

PubMed

Meghea, Cristian I; Raffo, Jennifer E; VanderMeulen, Peggy; Roman, Lee Anne

2014-02-01

We used administrative and screening data from 2009 to 2010 to determine if Healthy Start (HS), an enhanced prenatal services program, is reaching the most vulnerable African American women in Kent County, Michigan. Women in HS are at higher risk of key predictors of birth outcomes compared with other women. To advance toward evidence-based HS program evaluations in the absence of randomized controlled trials, future studies using comparison groups need to appropriately establish baseline equivalence on a variety of risk factors related to birth outcomes.

Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

Case Study: University of Anyplace: Strategic Legal Risk Review.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, John T.; Ferguson, Rowan

2000-01-01

Considers legal issues and risks faced by a fictional American university as it seeks to establish an operation based in London. Addresses the first step in the process of risk management, the risk review exercise, and provides an explanation of the legal issues involved to allow progression to the second stage in the process (evaluation of the…

Managing health and safety risks: Implications for tailoring health and safety management system practices.

PubMed

Willmer, D R; Haas, E J

2016-01-01

As national and international health and safety management system (HSMS) standards are voluntarily accepted or regulated into practice, organizations are making an effort to modify and integrate strategic elements of a connected management system into their daily risk management practices. In high-risk industries such as mining, that effort takes on added importance. The mining industry has long recognized the importance of a more integrated approach to recognizing and responding to site-specific risks, encouraging the adoption of a risk-based management framework. Recently, the U.S. National Mining Association led the development of an industry-specific HSMS built on the strategic frameworks of ANSI: Z10, OHSAS 18001, The American Chemistry Council's Responsible Care, and ILO-OSH 2001. All of these standards provide strategic guidance and focus on how to incorporate a plan-do-check-act cycle into the identification, management and evaluation of worksite risks. This paper details an exploratory study into whether practices associated with executing a risk-based management framework are visible through the actions of an organization's site-level management of health and safety risks. The results of this study show ways that site-level leaders manage day-to-day risk at their operations that can be characterized according to practices associated with a risk-based management framework. Having tangible operational examples of day-to-day risk management can serve as a starting point for evaluating field-level risk assessment efforts and their alignment to overall company efforts at effective risk mitigation through a HSMS or other processes.

An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, J.S.; Chen, J.J.

1999-12-01

The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on anmore » underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. IN this paper the authors evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach should perform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some of all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.« less

A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

PubMed

Khashman, Adnan

2009-08-01

Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

A New Approach in Applying Systems Engineering Tools and Analysis to Determine Hepatocyte Toxicogenomics Risk Levels to Human Health.

PubMed

Gigrich, James; Sarkani, Shahryar; Holzer, Thomas

2017-03-01

There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches in a cost-effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. Extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment often leads to different physiological outcomes. This article introduces the use of quantitative tools and methods from systems engineering to evaluate the risk of toxic compounds by the analysis of the amount of stress that human hepatocytes undergo in vitro when metabolizing GW7647 1 over extended times and concentrations. Hepatocytes are exceedingly connected systems that make it challenging to understand the highly varied dimensional genomics data to determine risk of exposure. Gene expression data of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α (PPARα) 2 binding was measured over multiple concentrations and varied times of GW7647 exposure and leveraging mahalanombis distance to establish toxicity threshold risk levels. The application of these novel systems engineering tools provides new insight into the intricate workings of human hepatocytes to determine risk threshold levels from exposure. This approach is beneficial to decision makers and scientists, and it can help reduce the backlog of untested chemical compounds due to the high cost and inefficiency of animal-based models.

Anthropometric measures in cardiovascular disease prediction: comparison of laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based model.

PubMed

Dhana, Klodian; Ikram, M Arfan; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H; Kavousi, Maryam

2015-03-01

Body mass index (BMI) has been used to simplify cardiovascular risk prediction models by substituting total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. In the elderly, the ability of BMI as a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) declines. We aimed to find the most predictive anthropometric measure for CVD risk to construct a non-laboratory-based model and to compare it with the model including laboratory measurements. The study included 2675 women and 1902 men aged 55-79 years from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to evaluate the association of BMI, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and a body shape index (ABSI) with CVD, including coronary heart disease and stroke. The performance of the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based models was evaluated by studying the discrimination, calibration, correlation and risk agreement. Among men, ABSI was the most informative measure associated with CVD, therefore ABSI was used to construct the non-laboratory-based model. Discrimination of the non-laboratory-based model was not different than laboratory-based model (c-statistic: 0.680-vs-0.683, p=0.71); both models were well calibrated (15.3% observed CVD risk vs 16.9% and 17.0% predicted CVD risks by the non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based models, respectively) and Spearman rank correlation and the agreement between non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based models were 0.89 and 91.7%, respectively. Among women, none of the anthropometric measures were independently associated with CVD. Among middle-aged and elderly where the ability of BMI to predict CVD declines, the non-laboratory-based model, based on ABSI, could predict CVD risk as accurately as the laboratory-based model among men. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

PubMed Central

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Seismic, high wind, tornado, and probabilistic risk assessments of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.P.; Stover, R.L.; Hashimoto, P.S.

1989-01-01

Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed. 5 figs.

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2017-01-01

Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.

Evaluation of the quality of care of a multi-disciplinary Risk Factor Assessment and Management Programme for Hypertension (RAMP-HT).

PubMed

Yu, Esther Yee Tak; Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Chan, Karina Hiu Yen; Wong, Carlos King Ho; Kwok, Ruby Lai Ping; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

2015-06-19

There is some evidence to support a risk-stratified, multi-disciplinary approach to manage patients with hypertension in primary care. The aim of this study is to evaluate the quality of care (QOC) of a multi-disciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Programme for Hypertension (RAMP-HT) for hypertensive patients in busy government-funded primary care clinics in Hong Kong. The objectives are to develop an evidence-based, structured and comprehensive evaluation framework on quality of care, to enhance the QOC of the RAMP-HT through an audit spiral of two evaluation cycles and to determine the effectiveness of the programme in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A longitudinal study is conducted using the Action Learning and Audit Spiral methodologies to measure whether pre-set target standards of care intended by the RAMP-HT are achieved. A structured evaluation framework on the quality of structure, process and outcomes of care has been developed based on the programme objectives and literature review in collaboration with the programme workgroup and health service providers. Each participating clinic is invited to complete a structure of care evaluation questionnaire in each evaluation cycle. The data of all patients who have enrolled into the RAMP-HT in the pre-defined evaluation periods are used for the evaluation of the process and outcomes of care in each evaluation cycle. For evaluation of the effectiveness of RAMP-HT, the primary outcomes including blood pressure (both systolic and diastolic), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and estimated 10-year CVD risk of RAMP-HT participants are compared to those of hypertensive patients in usual care without RAMP-HT. The QOC and effectiveness of the RAMP-HT in improving clinical and patient-reported outcomes for patients with hypertension in normal primary care will be determined. Possible areas for quality enhancement and standards of good practice will be established to inform service planning and policy decision making.

78 FR 63448 - Notice of Decision To Allow Interstate Movement of Sapote Fruit From Puerto Rico Into the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-24

... States of fresh sapote fruit from Puerto Rico. Based on the findings of a pest risk analysis, which we... announcing the availability of the pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate... measures if: (1) No comments were received on the pest risk analysis; (2) the comments on the pest risk...

Assaying the Effect of Levodopa on the Evaluation of Risk in Healthy Humans

PubMed Central

Symmonds, Mkael; Wright, Nicholas D.; Fagan, Elizabeth; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20) employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes) and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes - skewness), dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback. PMID:23844168

A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

2013-01-01

The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

A School-Based Dental Program Evaluation: Comparison to the Massachusetts Statewide Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culler, Corinna S.; Kotelchuck, Milton; Declercq, Eugene; Kuhlthau, Karen; Jones, Kari; Yoder, Karen M.

2017-01-01

Background: School-based dental programs target high-risk communities and reduce barriers to obtaining dental services by delivering care to students in their schools. We describe the evaluation of a school-based dental program operating in Chelsea, a city north of Boston, with a low-income and largely minority population, by comparing…

38 CFR 41.525 - Criteria for Federal program risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... (CONTINUED) AUDITS OF STATES, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, AND NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS Auditors § 41.525 Criteria for Federal program risk. (a) General. The auditor's determination should be based on an overall evaluation of the risk of noncompliance occurring, which could be material to the Federal program. The auditor shall...

Illustrative Case Using the RISK21 Roadmap and Matrix: Prioritization for Evaluation of Chemicals Found in Drinking Water

EPA Science Inventory

The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach tha...

Psychological first aid following trauma: implementation and evaluation framework for high-risk organizations.

PubMed

Forbes, David; Lewis, Virginia; Varker, Tracey; Phelps, Andrea; O'Donnell, Meaghan; Wade, Darryl J; Ruzek, Josef I; Watson, Patricia; Bryant, Richard A; Creamer, Mark

2011-01-01

International clinical practice guidelines for the management of psychological trauma recommend Psychological First Aid (PFA) as an early intervention for survivors of potentially traumatic events. These recommendations are consensus-based, and there is little published evidence assessing the effectiveness of PFA. This is not surprising given the nature of the intervention and the complicating factors involved in any evaluation of PFA. There is, nevertheless, an urgent need for stronger evidence evaluating its effectiveness. The current paper posits that the implementation and evaluation of PFA within high risk organizational settings is an ideal place to start. The paper provides a framework for a phasic approach to implementing PFA within such settings and presents a model for evaluating its effectiveness using a logic- or theory-based approach which considers both pre-event and post-event factors. Phases 1 and 2 of the PFA model are pre-event actions, and phases 3 and 4 are post-event actions. It is hoped that by using the Phased PFA model and evaluation method proposed in this paper, future researchers will begin to undertake the important task of building the evidence about the most effective approach to providing PFA in high risk organizational and community disaster settings.

Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

2013-01-01

Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

Evaluation and simplification of the occupational slip, trip and fall risk-assessment test

PubMed Central

NAKAMURA, Takehiro; OYAMA, Ichiro; FUJINO, Yoshihisa; KUBO, Tatsuhiko; KADOWAKI, Koji; KUNIMOTO, Masamizu; ODOI, Haruka; TABATA, Hidetoshi; MATSUDA, Shinya

2016-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the efficacy of the occupational slip, trip and fall (STF) risk assessment test developed by the Japan Industrial Safety and Health Association (JISHA). We further intended to simplify the test to improve efficiency. Methods: A previous cohort study was performed using 540 employees aged ≥50 years who took the JISHA’s STF risk assessment test. We conducted multivariate analysis using these previous results as baseline values and answers to questionnaire items or score on physical fitness tests as variables. The screening efficiency of each model was evaluated based on the obtained receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: The area under the ROC obtained in multivariate analysis was 0.79 when using all items. Six of the 25 questionnaire items were selected for stepwise analysis, giving an area under the ROC curve of 0.77. Conclusion: Based on the results of follow-up performed one year after the initial examination, we successfully determined the usefulness of the STF risk assessment test. Administering a questionnaire alone is sufficient for screening subjects at risk of STF during the subsequent one-year period. PMID:27021057

Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

2016-06-01

The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

Sleep disturbances as an evidence-based suicide risk factor.

PubMed

Bernert, Rebecca A; Kim, Joanne S; Iwata, Naomi G; Perlis, Michael L

2015-03-01

Increasing research indicates that sleep disturbances may confer increased risk for suicidal behaviors, including suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and death by suicide. Despite increased investigation, a number of methodological problems present important limitations to the validity and generalizability of findings in this area, which warrant additional focus. To evaluate and delineate sleep disturbances as an evidence-based suicide risk factor, a systematic review of the extant literature was conducted with methodological considerations as a central focus. The following methodologic criteria were required for inclusion: the report (1) evaluated an index of sleep disturbance; (2) examined an outcome measure for suicidal behavior; (3) adjusted for presence of a depression diagnosis or depression severity, as a covariate; and (4) represented an original investigation as opposed to a chart review. Reports meeting inclusion criteria were further classified and reviewed according to: study design and timeframe; sample type and size; sleep disturbance, suicide risk, and depression covariate assessment measure(s); and presence of positive versus negative findings. Based on keyword search, the following search engines were used: PubMed and PsycINFO. Search criteria generated N = 82 articles representing original investigations focused on sleep disturbances and suicide outcomes. Of these, N = 18 met inclusion criteria for review based on systematic analysis. Of the reports identified, N = 18 evaluated insomnia or poor sleep quality symptoms, whereas N = 8 assessed nightmares in association with suicide risk. Despite considerable differences in study designs, samples, and assessment techniques, the comparison of such reports indicates preliminary, converging evidence for sleep disturbances as an empirical risk factor for suicidal behaviors, while highlighting important, future directions for increased investigation.

Domestic Environmental Risk Factors Associated with Falling in Elderly

PubMed Central

LÖK, Neslihan; AKIN, Belgin

2013-01-01

Background: This is a cross-sectional study aiming at analyzing the relation between falling and domestic environmental –risk factors in community-dwelling elderly. Methods: The study consisted of 243 randomly chosen community-dwelling elderly over 65 years of age living around a health care center in Central Selcuklu, Konya. Data were collected with a questionnaire form including socio-demographic and other characteristics, with the Rivermead Mobility Index for evaluating mobility condition and an Evaluation Form of Domestic Environmental Risk Factors of Falling (EFDERF), which is developed by the researcher to assess domestic environmental risk factors of falling. Results: Based on (EFDERF) high number of problems lived in bathroom/restroom, kitchen, bedroom, sitting room/saloon and in all other areas was a risk factor in terms of domestic falling characteristics while the number of problems lived in hall and stairs was not a significant risk factor. Conclusion: EFDERF may be used by the nurses and health professionals to evaluate risk of falling and collecting data after visits in primary-care of elderly. PMID:23515204

Which risk models perform best in selecting ever-smokers for lung cancer screening?

Cancer.gov

A new analysis by scientists at NCI evaluates nine different individualized lung cancer risk prediction models based on their selections of ever-smokers for computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening.

Valuing public sector risk exposure in transportation public-private partnerships.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-01

This report presents a methodological framework to evaluate public sector financial risk exposure when : delivering transportation infrastructure through public-private partnership (PPP) agreements in the United : States (U.S.). The framework is base...

Is risk analysis scientific?

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantifying the relative risk of sex offenders: risk ratios for static-99R.

PubMed

Hanson, R Karl; Babchishin, Kelly M; Helmus, Leslie; Thornton, David

2013-10-01

Given the widespread use of empirical actuarial risk tools in corrections and forensic mental health, it is important that evaluators and decision makers understand how scores relate to recidivism risk. In the current study, we found strong evidence for a relative risk interpretation of Static-99R scores using 8 samples from Canada, United Kingdom, and Western Europe (N = 4,037 sex offenders). Each increase in Static-99R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4). Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-99R. We recommend that evaluators consider risk ratios as a useful, nonarbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information. To avoid misinterpretation, however, risk ratios should be presented with recidivism base rates.

Build Resilience at Your Utility

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

Stratification strategy for evaluating the influence of diabetes complication severity index on the risk of hospitalization: a record linkage data in Western Australia.

PubMed

Ha, Ninh Thi; Harris, Mark; Robinson, Suzanne; Preen, David; Moorin, Rachael

2017-07-01

This study aimed to develop a risk stratification strategy for evaluating the relationship between complications of diabetes and the risk of diabetic-related hospitalization to accurately classify diabetes severity. The study used administrative health records for 40,624 individuals with diabetes aged ≥18years in Western Australian. The adapted Diabetes Complication Severity Index (DCSI), socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were used in random effects negative binomial and threshold effect models to determine the optimal stratification strategy for diabetes severity based on the homogeneity of the risk of hospitalization in response to variation of the DCSI. The optimal stratification of people with diabetes was specified by four sub-populations. The first sub-population was no complications with an inverse association with the risk of hospitalizations (coefficient-0.247, SE 0.03). Further three sub-populations with DCSI at one (coefficient 0.289, SE 0.01), two (coefficient 0.339, SE 0.01) and three or more (coefficient 0.381, SE 0.01) were used to accurately describe the impact of DCSI on the risk of hospitalization. A stratification into four subpopulations based on the homogeneous impact of diabetes DCSI on the risk of hospitalization may be more suitable for evaluating health care interventions and planning health care provision. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central Greece. Moreover, remote sensing has proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought monitoring and assessment.

From design to implementation--the Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) program: a descriptive report of an electronic web-based diabetes management program.

PubMed

Ko, Gary T; So, Wing-Yee; Tong, Peter C; Le Coguiec, Francois; Kerr, Debborah; Lyubomirsky, Greg; Tamesis, Beaver; Wolthers, Troels; Nan, Jennifer; Chan, Juliana

2010-05-13

The Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) Program is a web-based program incorporating a comprehensive risk engine, care protocols, and clinical decision support to improve ambulatory diabetes care. The JADE Program uses information technology to facilitate healthcare professionals to create a diabetes registry and to deliver an evidence-based care and education protocol tailored to patients' risk profiles. With written informed consent from participating patients and care providers, all data are anonymized and stored in a databank to establish an Asian Diabetes Database for research and publication purpose. The JADE electronic portal (e-portal: http://www.jade-adf.org) is implemented as a Java application using the Apache web server, the mySQL database and the Cocoon framework. The JADE e-portal comprises a risk engine which predicts 5-year probability of major clinical events based on parameters collected during an annual comprehensive assessment. Based on this risk stratification, the JADE e-portal recommends a care protocol tailored to these risk levels with decision support triggered by various risk factors. Apart from establishing a registry for quality assurance and data tracking, the JADE e-portal also displays trends of risk factor control at each visit to promote doctor-patient dialogues and to empower both parties to make informed decisions. The JADE Program is a prototype using information technology to facilitate implementation of a comprehensive care model, as recommended by the International Diabetes Federation. It also enables health care teams to record, manage, track and analyze the clinical course and outcomes of people with diabetes.

A School-Based Intervention Associated with Improvements in Cardiometabolic Risk Profiles in Young People with Intellectual Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallén, Eva Flygare; Müllersdorf, Maria; Christensson, Kyllike; Marcus, Claude

2013-01-01

This study evaluates a multifactorial school-based intervention with the aim of decreasing cardiometabolic risk factors by means of a healthy lifestyle, primarily with daily physical activity and healthy food during school hours, at an upper secondary school for students with intellectual disabilities. The outcome is measured in terms of…

76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-15

... consumer when the creditor uses a consumer report to grant or extend credit to the consumer on material.... Information from a consumer report is often used in evaluating the risk posed by the consumer. Creditors that... report in connection with an extension of credit and, based in whole or in part on the consumer report...

Functional Assessment-Based Interventions for Students with or At-Risk for High-Incidence Disabilities: Field Testing Single-Case Synthesis Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Common, Eric Alan; Lane, Kathleen Lynne; Pustejovsky, James E.; Johnson, Austin H.; Johl, Liane Elizabeth

2017-01-01

This systematic review investigated one systematic approach to designing, implementing, and evaluating functional assessment-based interventions (FABI) for use in supporting school-age students with or at-risk for high-incidence disabilities. We field tested several recently developed methods for single-case design syntheses. First, we appraised…

77 FR 42317 - Establish a Patient-Based Registry To Evaluate the Association of Gadolinium Based Contrast...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-18

... renal failure appear to be at highest risk. In one, early retrospective study of 370 patients with... (Ref. 1). In a recent retrospective chart review study by Wang of 52,954 contrast MR examinations with... prospective registry study of the risk of NSF associated with GBCAs among renal patients. Patients already...

Evaluation of passenger health risk assessment of sustainable indoor air quality monitoring in metro systems based on a non-Gaussian dynamic sensor validation method.

PubMed

Kim, MinJeong; Liu, Hongbin; Kim, Jeong Tai; Yoo, ChangKyoo

2014-08-15

Sensor faults in metro systems provide incorrect information to indoor air quality (IAQ) ventilation systems, resulting in the miss-operation of ventilation systems and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, a new sensor validation method is proposed to (1) detect, identify and repair sensor faults and (2) evaluate the influence of sensor reliability on passenger health risk. To address the dynamic non-Gaussianity problem of IAQ data, dynamic independent component analysis (DICA) is used. To detect and identify sensor faults, the DICA-based squared prediction error and sensor validity index are used, respectively. To restore the faults to normal measurements, a DICA-based iterative reconstruction algorithm is proposed. The comprehensive indoor air-quality index (CIAI) that evaluates the influence of the current IAQ on passenger health is then compared using the faulty and reconstructed IAQ data sets. Experimental results from a metro station showed that the DICA-based method can produce an improved IAQ level in the metro station and reduce passenger health risk since it more accurately validates sensor faults than do conventional methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research on the Application of Risk-based Inspection for the Boiler System in Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Henan

2017-12-01

Power plant boiler is one of the three main equipment of coal-fired power plants, is very tall to the requirement of the safe and stable operation, in a significant role in the whole system of thermal power generation, a risk-based inspection is a kind of pursuit of security and economy of unified system management idea and method, can effectively evaluate equipment risk and reduce the operational cost.

Diet and Colorectal Cancer Risk: Evaluation of a Nutrition Education Leaflet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dyer, K. J.; Fearon, K. C. H.; Buckner, K.; Richardson, R. A.

2005-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the effect of a needs-based, nutrition education leaflet on nutritional knowledge. Design: Comparison of nutritional knowledge levels before and after exposure to a nutrition education leaflet. Setting: A regional colorectal out-patient clinic in Edinburgh. Method: A nutrition education leaflet, based on an earlier…

Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

2007-01-01

Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

Approaches for the Application of Physiologically Based ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft report of Approaches for the Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models and Supporting Data in Risk Assessment addresses the application and evaluation of PBPK models for risk assessment purposes. These models represent an important class of dosimetry models that are useful for predicting internal dose at target organs for risk assessment applications. Topics covered include:the types of data required use of PBPK models in risk assessment,evaluation of PBPK models for use in risk assessment, andthe application of these models to address uncertainties resulting from extrapolations (e.g. interspecies extrapolation) often used in risk assessment.In addition, appendices are provided that includea compilation of chemical partition coefficients and rate constants,algorithms for estimating chemical-specific parameters, anda list of publications relating to PBPK modeling. This report is primarily meant to serve as a learning tool for EPA scientists and risk assessors who may be less familiar with the field. In addition, this report can be informative to PBPK modelers within and outside the Agency, as it provides an assessment of the types of data and models that the EPA requires for consideration of a model for use in risk assessment.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

Disaster Risk Management and Measurement Indicators for Cultural Heritage in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Y. N.; Cheng, C. F.; Cheng, H. M.

2015-08-01

Under the influence of global climate change, the risk preparedness has become a universal issue in different research fields. In the conservation of cultural heritage, disaster risk management is becoming one of the major research topics. Besides researches on the theory and mechanism of disaster risk management, the tools for the performance of site managers to protect cultural heritage is another important issue that needs development. UNESCO and ICOMOS have released some important documents on disaster risk management including its concept, identification, evaluation, mitigation, monitoring and resilience, etc. However, there is a big gap between concept and implementation in Taiwan. Presently there are 2000 monuments in Taiwan that hardly meet the modern code. First, based on international documents released, this research presents 13 disaster indicators on monuments and their environments. Next, 345 monuments in northern Taiwan are taken as examples to evaluate their risk situations with indicators designed in 2011. Some positive recommendations were given at the same time. As a result, a comparative evaluation was completed in 2012 and some key issues are found, such as too many electrical facilities, lack of efficient firefighting equipment, and a shortage of management mechanism, just to name a few. Through the improvement of the management, some major risk can be mitigated. In 2013~14, this research took 23 national monuments from the 345 monuments to evaluate their risk situations and compare the differences between national and local monuments. Results show that almost all management mechanisms in the national monuments have been established and are running well. However, problems like inappropriate electrical facilities and insufficient monitoring equipment remain. In addition, the performance of private monuments is not as good as public ones. Based on the collected information and evaluation, this research develops safety measures of heritage conservation in two aspects. One is for researchers to measure the risk of the heritage; the other is for site managers to manage the risk of their monument with ease. In conclusion, intendants of monuments in Taiwan have to develop more disaster risk management ideas to mitigate and prevent risks. In the meantime, the management and monitoring mechanisms available are helpful tools for risk mitigation. The awareness and training of the site managers are important issues for the implementation of risk prevention.

All men with vasculogenic erectile dysfunction require a cardiovascular workup.

PubMed

Miner, Martin; Nehra, Ajay; Jackson, Graham; Bhasin, Shalender; Billups, Kevin; Burnett, Arthur L; Buvat, Jacques; Carson, Culley; Cunningham, Glenn; Ganz, Peter; Goldstein, Irwin; Guay, Andre; Hackett, Geoff; Kloner, Robert A; Kostis, John B; LaFlamme, K Elizabeth; Montorsi, Piero; Ramsey, Melinda; Rosen, Raymond; Sadovsky, Richard; Seftel, Allen; Shabsigh, Ridwan; Vlachopoulos, Charalambos; Wu, Frederick

2014-03-01

An association between erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular disease has long been recognized, and studies suggest that erectile dysfunction is an independent marker of cardiovascular disease risk. Therefore, assessment and management of erectile dysfunction may help identify and reduce the risk of future cardiovascular events, particularly in younger men. The initial erectile dysfunction evaluation should distinguish between predominantly vasculogenic erectile dysfunction and erectile dysfunction of other etiologies. For men believed to have predominantly vasculogenic erectile dysfunction, we recommend that initial cardiovascular risk stratification be based on the Framingham Risk Score. Management of men with erectile dysfunction who are at low risk for cardiovascular disease should focus on risk-factor control; men at high risk, including those with cardiovascular symptoms, should be referred to a cardiologist. Intermediate-risk men should undergo noninvasive evaluation for subclinical atherosclerosis. A growing body of evidence supports the use of emerging prognostic markers to further understand cardiovascular risk in men with erectile dysfunction, but few markers have been prospectively evaluated in this population. In conclusion, we support cardiovascular risk stratification and risk-factor management in all men with vasculogenic erectile dysfunction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. III: Evaluation using a panel of reference foods.

PubMed

Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

2008-12-01

This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of four functional components of a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) for crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods in a concordance study. Two independent raters assigned concern levels to 20 reference GM foods using a rating form based on the proposed RBCS. The four components of evaluation were: (1) degree of concordance, (2) distribution across concern levels, (3) discriminating ability of the scheme, and (4) ease of use. At least one of the 20 reference foods was assigned to each of the possible concern levels, demonstrating the ability of the scheme to identify GM foods of different concern with respect to potential health risk. There was reasonably good concordance between the two raters for the three separate parts of the RBCS. The raters agreed that the criteria in the scheme were sufficiently clear in discriminating reference foods into different concern levels, and that with some experience, the scheme was reasonably easy to use. Specific issues and suggestions for improvements identified in the concordance study are discussed.

Information and problem report usage in system saftey engineering division

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrissey, Stephen J.

1990-01-01

Five basic problems or question areas are examined. They are as follows: (1) Evaluate adequacy of current problem/performance data base; (2) Evaluate methods of performing trend analysis; (3) Methods and sources of data for probabilistic risk assessment; and (4) How is risk assessment documentation upgraded and/or updated. The fifth problem was to provide recommendations for each of the above four areas.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-09-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

2010-06-01

A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

Streaming weekly soap opera video episodes to smartphones in a randomized controlled trial to reduce HIV risk in young urban African American/black women.

PubMed

Jones, Rachel; Lacroix, Lorraine J

2012-07-01

Love, Sex, and Choices is a 12-episode soap opera video series created as an intervention to reduce HIV sex risk. The effect on women's HIV risk behavior was evaluated in a randomized controlled trial in 238 high risk, predominately African American young adult women in the urban Northeast. To facilitate on-demand access and privacy, the episodes were streamed to study-provided smartphones. Here, we discuss the development of a mobile platform to deliver the 12-weekly video episodes or weekly HIV risk reduction written messages to smartphones, including; the technical requirements, development, and evaluation. Popularity of the smartphone and use of the Internet for multimedia offer a new channel to address health disparities in traditionally underserved populations. This is the first study to report on streaming a serialized video-based intervention to a smartphone. The approach described here may provide useful insights in assessing advantages and disadvantages of smartphones to implement a video-based intervention.

Evaluating a Brief, Video-Based Sexual Risk Reduction Intervention and Assessment Reactivity with STI Clinic Patients: Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P.; Senn, Theresa E.; Walsh, Jennifer L.; Coury-Doniger, Patricia; Urban, Marguerite A.; Fortune, Thierry; Vanable, Peter A.; Carey, Kate B.

2014-01-01

We report results from a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the efficacy of a video-based sexual risk reduction intervention and to measure assessment reactivity. Patients (N = 1010; 56 % male; 69 % African American) receiving care at a sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic were assigned to one of four conditions formed by crossing assessment condition (i.e., sexual health vs. general health) with intervention condition (i.e., sexual risk reduction intervention vs. general health promotion). After completing their assigned baseline assessment, participants received their assigned intervention, and subsequently returned for follow-up assessments at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Participants in all conditions reduced their self-reported sexual risk behavior, and the incidence of new STIs declined from baseline through the follow-ups; however, there was no effect of intervention or assessment condition. We conclude that further risk reduction will require more intensive interventions, especially in STI clinics that already provide excellent clinical care. PMID:25433653

Evaluating heavy metal accumulation and potential risks in soil-plant systems applied with magnesium slag-based fertilizer.

PubMed

Fan, Yuan; Li, Yongling; Li, Hua; Cheng, Fangqin

2018-04-01

Two typical Chinese soils including southern paddy soil and northern calcareous soils were used in a pot experiment to evaluate the effect of magnesium slag-based fertilizer on heavy metal accumulation and health risk in soil-plant system. The results indicated that magnesium slag-based fertilizer promoted the growth of maize plants. The concentrations of Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn in both soils amended with magnesium slag-based fertilizer were qualified for the second level criterion of Standard of Soil Environment (GB 15618-2009). Accumulation of HMs exhibited partitioning characteristics in maize plants, i.e. Cr and Cu were accumulated mainly in root and leaf parts while Pb was concentrated in roots. The order of transfer factors (TF) of HMs in different plant organs was ordered as follows: root > stem > leaf > grain. It indicated that less HMs were accumulated in the grain compared with that in other organs. The estimate daily intakes and total target hazard quotient of HMs including Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn were less than 1, indicating that consumption of maize grain was at low risk and would not cause non-carcinogenic risks. From the above results, application of magnesium slag-based fertilizer at present level would not cause pollution risk for maize plants cultivated in two Chinese soils. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

[Spatiotemporal dynamic fuzzy evaluation of wetland environmental pollution risk in Dayang estuary of Liaoning Province, Northeast China based on remote sensing].

PubMed

Sun, Yong-Guang; Zhao, Dong-Zhi; Zhang, Feng-Shou; Wei, Bao-Quan; Chu, Jia-Lan; Su, Xiu

2012-11-01

Based on the aerial image data of Dayang estuary in 2008, and by virtue of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) , remote sensing technology, and GIS spatial analysis, a spatiotemporal evaluation was made on the comprehensive level of wetland environmental pollution risk in Dayang estuary, with the impacts of typical human activities on the dynamic variation of this comprehensive level discussed. From 1958 to 2008, the comprehensive level of the environmental pollution risk in study area presented an increasing trend. Spatially, this comprehensive level declined from land to ocean, and showed a zonal distribution. Tourism development activities unlikely led to the increase of the comprehensive level, while human inhabitation, transportation, and aquaculture would exacerbate the risk of environmental pollution. This study could provide reference for the sea area use planning, ecological function planning, and pollutants control of estuary region.

Review of ecological-based risk management approaches used at five Army Superfund sites.

PubMed

Poucher, Sherri L; Tracey, Gregory A; Johnson, Mark S; Haines, Laurie B

2012-04-01

Factors used in environmental remedial decision making concerning ecological risk are not well understood or necessarily consistent. Recent Records of Decision (RODs) for Army CERCLA sites were reviewed to select case studies where remedial management occurred in response to ecological risks. Thirty-four Army RODs were evaluated representing decisions promulgated between 1996 and 2004. Five were selected based on assessments that remedial actions were clearly linked to concern for ecological receptors. The Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) approach and the subsequent risk management process were reviewed for each site. The case studies demonstrated that the ERA findings, as well as critical management decisions regarding interpretation of identified ecological risks, were determinants of remedial action objectives. Decisions regarding the selection of remedial alternatives were based on a set of criteria prescribed by Superfund requirements and guidance. Remedial alternative evaluations require protection of human health and the environment, but protective conditions were determined using different methods at each site. Examining the remedial management process for the 5 case study sites revealed that uncertainty in the risk assessment and decisions regarding appropriate spatial scales for both risk assessment and remediation were important factors influencing remedial action decisions. The case reviews also revealed that levels of documentation were variable from site to site. In the future, more detailed documentation of decision criteria and the development of criteria that consider the resilience of the site will result in more technically defensible ecological risk management. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Early decision framework for integrating sustainable risk management for complex remediation sites: Drivers, barriers, and performance metrics.

PubMed

Harclerode, Melissa A; Macbeth, Tamzen W; Miller, Michael E; Gurr, Christopher J; Myers, Teri S

2016-12-15

As the environmental remediation industry matures, remaining sites often have significant underlying technical challenges and financial constraints. More often than not, significant remediation efforts at these "complex" sites have not achieved stringent, promulgated cleanup goals. Decisions then have to be made about whether and how to commit additional resources towards achieving those goals, which are often not achievable nor required to protect receptors. Guidance on cleanup approaches focused on evaluating and managing site-specific conditions and risks, rather than uniformly meeting contaminant cleanup criteria in all media, is available to aid in this decision. Although these risk-based cleanup approaches, such as alternative endpoints and adaptive management strategies, have been developed, they are under-utilized due to environmental, socio-economic, and risk perception barriers. Also, these approaches are usually implemented late in the project life cycle after unsuccessful remedial attempts to achieve stringent cleanup criteria. In this article, we address these barriers by developing an early decision framework to identify if site characteristics support sustainable risk management, and develop performance metrics and tools to evaluate and implement successful risk-based cleanup approaches. In addition, we address uncertainty and risk perception challenges by aligning risk-based cleanup approaches with the concepts of risk management and sustainable remediation. This approach was developed in the context of lessons learned from implementing remediation at complex sites, but as a framework can, and should, be applied to all sites undergoing remediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weighing the Anti-Ischemic Benefits and Bleeding Risks from Aspirin Therapy: a Rational Approach.

PubMed

Dugani, Sagar; Ames, Jeffrey M; Manson, JoAnn E; Mora, Samia

2018-02-21

The role of aspirin in secondary cardiovascular prevention is well understood; however, the role in primary prevention is less clear, and requires careful balancing of potential benefits with risks. Here, we summarize the evidence base on the benefits and risks of aspirin therapy, discuss clinical practice guidelines and decision support tools to assist in initiating aspirin therapy, and highlight ongoing trials that may clarify the role of aspirin in cardiovascular disease prevention. In 2016, the USPSTF released guidelines on the use of aspirin for primary prevention. Based on 11 trials (n = 118,445), aspirin significantly reduced all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction, and in 7 trials that evaluated aspirin ≤ 100 mg/day, there was significant reduction in nonfatal stroke. The USPSTF recommends individualized use of aspirin based on factors including age, 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, and bleeding risk. Several ongoing trials are evaluating the role of aspirin in primary prevention, secondary prevention, and in combination therapy for atrial fibrillation. Evidence-based approaches to aspirin use should consider the anti-ischemic benefits and bleeding risks from aspirin. In this era of precision medicine, tools that provide the personalized benefit to risk assessment, such as the freely available clinical decision support tool (Aspirin-Guide), can be easily incorporated into the electronic health record and facilitate more informed decisions about initiating aspirin therapy for primary prevention. Aspirin has a complex matrix of benefits and risks, and its use in primary prevention requires individualized decision-making. Results from ongoing trials may guide healthcare providers in identifying appropriate candidates for aspirin therapy.

KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors

PubMed Central

Lentine, Krista L.; Kasiske, Bertram L.; Levey, Andrew S.; Adams, Patricia L.; Alberú, Josefina; Bakr, Mohamed A.; Gallon, Lorenzo; Garvey, Catherine A.; Guleria, Sandeep; Li, Philip Kam-Tao; Segev, Dorry L.; Taler, Sandra J.; Tanabe, Kazunari; Wright, Linda; Zeier, Martin G.; Cheung, Michael; Garg, Amit X.

2017-01-01

Abstract The 2017 Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors is intended to assist medical professionals who evaluate living kidney donor candidates and provide care before, during and after donation. The guideline development process followed the Grades of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach and guideline recommendations are based on systematic reviews of relevant studies that included critical appraisal of the quality of the evidence and the strength of recommendations. However, many recommendations, for which there was no evidence or no systematic search for evidence was undertaken by the Evidence Review Team, were issued as ungraded expert opinion recommendations. The guideline work group concluded that a comprehensive approach to risk assessment should replace decisions based on assessments of single risk factors in isolation. Original data analyses were undertaken to produce a “proof-in-concept” risk-prediction model for kidney failure to support a framework for quantitative risk assessment in the donor candidate evaluation and defensible shared decision making. This framework is grounded in the simultaneous consideration of each candidate's profile of demographic and health characteristics. The processes and framework for the donor candidate evaluation are presented, along with recommendations for optimal care before, during, and after donation. Limitations of the evidence are discussed, especially regarding the lack of definitive prospective studies and clinical outcome trials. Suggestions for future research, including the need for continued refinement of long-term risk prediction and novel approaches to estimating donation-attributable risks, are also provided. In citing this document, the following format should be used: Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Living Kidney Donor Work Group. KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors. Transplantation. 2017;101(Suppl 8S):S1–S109. PMID:28742762

Prototype development of a web-based participative decision support platform in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

This paper discusses the proposed background architecture and prototype development of an internet-based decision support system (DSS) in the field of natural hazards and risk management using open-source geospatial software and web technologies. It is based on a three-tier, client-server architecture with the support of boundless (opengeo) framework and its client side SDK application environment using customized gxp components and data utility classes. The main purpose of the system is to integrate the workflow of risk management systematically with the diverse involvement of stakeholders from different organizations dealing with natural hazards and risk for evaluation of management measures through the active online participation approach. It aims to develop an adaptive user friendly, web-based environment that allows the users to set up risk management strategies based on actual context and data by integrating web-GIS and DSS functionality associated with process flow and other visualization tools. Web-GIS interface has been integrated within the DSS to deliver maps and provide certain geo-processing capabilities on the web, which can be easily accessible and shared by different organizations located in case study sites of the project. This platform could be envisaged not only as a common web-based platform for the centralized sharing of data such as hazard maps, elements at risk maps and additional information but also to ensure an integrated platform of risk management where the users could upload data, analyze risk and identify possible alternative scenarios for risk reduction especially for floods and landslides, either quantitatively or qualitatively depending on the risk information provided by the stakeholders in case study regions. The level of involvement, access to and interaction with the provided functionality of the system varies depending on the roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders, for example, only the experts (planners, geological services, etc.) can have access to the alternative definition component to formulate the risk reduction measures. The development of such a participative platform would finally lead to an integrated risk management approach highlighting the needs to deal with involved experts and civil society in the decision-making process for evaluation of risk management measures through the active participation approach. The system will be applied and evaluated in four case study areas of the CHANGES project in Europe: Romania, North Eastern Italy, French Alps and Poland. However, the framework of the system is designed in a generic way so as to be applicable in other regions to achieve the high adaptability and flexibility of the system. The research has been undertaken as a part of the CHANGES project funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program.

Concepts for risk-based surveillance in the field of veterinary medicine and veterinary public health: Review of current approaches

PubMed Central

Stärk, Katharina DC; Regula, Gertraud; Hernandez, Jorge; Knopf, Lea; Fuchs, Klemens; Morris, Roger S; Davies, Peter

2006-01-01

Background Emerging animal and zoonotic diseases and increasing international trade have resulted in an increased demand for veterinary surveillance systems. However, human and financial resources available to support government veterinary services are becoming more and more limited in many countries world-wide. Intuitively, issues that present higher risks merit higher priority for surveillance resources as investments will yield higher benefit-cost ratios. The rapid rate of acceptance of this core concept of risk-based surveillance has outpaced the development of its theoretical and practical bases. Discussion The principal objectives of risk-based veterinary surveillance are to identify surveillance needs to protect the health of livestock and consumers, to set priorities, and to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. An important goal is to achieve a higher benefit-cost ratio with existing or reduced resources. We propose to define risk-based surveillance systems as those that apply risk assessment methods in different steps of traditional surveillance design for early detection and management of diseases or hazards. In risk-based designs, public health, economic and trade consequences of diseases play an important role in selection of diseases or hazards. Furthermore, certain strata of the population of interest have a higher probability to be sampled for detection of diseases or hazards. Evaluation of risk-based surveillance systems shall prove that the efficacy of risk-based systems is equal or higher than traditional systems; however, the efficiency (benefit-cost ratio) shall be higher in risk-based surveillance systems. Summary Risk-based surveillance considerations are useful to support both strategic and operational decision making. This article highlights applications of risk-based surveillance systems in the veterinary field including food safety. Examples are provided for risk-based hazard selection, risk-based selection of sampling strata as well as sample size calculation based on risk considerations. PMID:16507106

Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

PubMed Central

Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

2011-01-01

Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe: a population-based study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

PubMed

van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Finne, Partik; Heaf, James; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Kramar, Reinhard; Massy, Ziad A; De Meester, Johan; Traynor, Jamie P; Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Wetzels, Jack F M; Jager, Kitty J

2017-02-01

Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European countries. We defined lifetime risk of RRT as the cumulative incidence of RRT up to age 90 years. We obtained RRT incidence rates per million population by 5-year age groups and sex using data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry, and used these to estimate the cumulative incidence of RRT, adjusting for competing mortality risk. Lifetime risk of RRT varied from 0.44% to 2.05% at age 20 years and from 0.17% to 1.59% at age 70 years across countries, and was twice as high in men as in women. Lifetime RRT risk decreased with age, ranging from an average of 0.77% to 0.44% in 20- to- 70-year-old women, and from 1.45% to 0.96% in 20- to- 70-year-old men. The lifetime risk of RRT increased slightly over the past decade, more so in men than in women. However, it appears to have stabilized or even decreased slightly in more recent years. The lifetime risk of RRT decreased with age, was lower in women as compared with men of equal age and varied considerably throughout Europe. Given the substantial differences in lifetime risk of RRT between the USA and Europe, country-specific estimates should be used in the evaluation and communication of the risk of RRT for potential living kidney donors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

The FRIENDS Emotional Health Program for Minority Groups at Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iizuka, Cristina A.; Barrett, Paula M.; Gillies, Robyn; Cook, Clayton R.; Miller, Debbie

2014-01-01

Background: Despite the existence of evidence-based interventions for promoting mental health in children, the number of children at risk remains high. One of the reasons is that such interventions are not reaching specific groups at risk such as low socioeconomic status and ethnic minority groups. This study evaluated an adaptation of a…

Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Julie Gilbertson-Day

2010-01-01

This report was designed to meet three broad goals: (1) evaluate wildfire hazard on Federal lands; (2) develop information useful in prioritizing where fuels treatments and mitigation measures might be proposed to address significant fire hazard and risk; and (3) develop risk-based performance measures to document the effectiveness of fire management programs. The...

Helping At-Risk Youth: Lessons from Community-Based Initiatives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morley, Elaine; Rossman, Shelli B.

This report is designed to assist communities engaged in or contemplating initiatives focused on at-risk youth. Much of the information comes from evaluations of the Communities in Schools, SafeFeatures, and Children at Risk initiatives. Brief descriptions of experiences or practices of the community programs are used to illustrate points made or…

Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Wang, Xue; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng

2017-05-01

As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor.

Machine Learning for Social Services: A Study of Prenatal Case Management in Illinois.

PubMed

Pan, Ian; Nolan, Laura B; Brown, Rashida R; Khan, Romana; van der Boor, Paul; Harris, Daniel G; Ghani, Rayid

2017-06-01

To evaluate the positive predictive value of machine learning algorithms for early assessment of adverse birth risk among pregnant women as a means of improving the allocation of social services. We used administrative data for 6457 women collected by the Illinois Department of Human Services from July 2014 to May 2015 to develop a machine learning model for adverse birth prediction and improve upon the existing paper-based risk assessment. We compared different models and determined the strongest predictors of adverse birth outcomes using positive predictive value as the metric for selection. Machine learning algorithms performed similarly, outperforming the current paper-based risk assessment by up to 36%; a refined paper-based assessment outperformed the current assessment by up to 22%. We estimate that these improvements will allow 100 to 170 additional high-risk pregnant women screened for program eligibility each year to receive services that would have otherwise been unobtainable. Our analysis exhibits the potential for machine learning to move government agencies toward a more data-informed approach to evaluating risk and providing social services. Overall, such efforts will improve the efficiency of allocating resource-intensive interventions.

Texting for Health: An Evaluation of a Population Approach to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Reduction With a Personalized Message.

PubMed

Khurshid, Anjum; Brown, Lisanne; Mukherjee, Snigdha; Abebe, Nebeyou; Kulick, David

2015-11-01

txt4health is an innovative, 14-week, interactive, population-based mobile health program for individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes, developed under the Beacon Community Program in the Greater New Orleans, La., area. A comprehensive social marketing campaign sought to enroll hard-to-reach, at-risk populations using a combination of mass media and face-to-face engagement in faith-based and retail environments. Little is known about the effectiveness of social marketing for mobile technology application in the general population. A systematic evaluation of the campaign identified successes and barriers to implementing a population-based mobile health program. Face-to-face engagement helped increase program enrollment after the initial launch; otherwise, enrollment leveled off over time. Results show positive trends in reaching target populations and in the use of mobile phones to record personal health information and set goals for reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes. The lessons from the txt4health campaign can help inform the development and programmatic strategies to provide a person-level intervention using a population-level approach for individuals at risk for diabetes as well as aid in chronic disease management.

Moving Toward Evidence-Based Federal Healthy Start Program Evaluations: Accounting for Bias in Birth Outcomes Studies

PubMed Central

Raffo, Jennifer E.; VanderMeulen, Peggy; Roman, Lee Anne

2014-01-01

We used administrative and screening data from 2009 to 2010 to determine if Healthy Start (HS), an enhanced prenatal services program, is reaching the most vulnerable African American women in Kent County, Michigan. Women in HS are at higher risk of key predictors of birth outcomes compared with other women. To advance toward evidence-based HS program evaluations in the absence of randomized controlled trials, future studies using comparison groups need to appropriately establish baseline equivalence on a variety of risk factors related to birth outcomes. PMID:24354826

Investigation on circular asymmetry of geographical distribution in cancer mortality of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors based on risk maps: analysis of spatial survival data.

PubMed

Tonda, Tetsuji; Satoh, Kenichi; Otani, Keiko; Sato, Yuya; Maruyama, Hirofumi; Kawakami, Hideshi; Tashiro, Satoshi; Hoshi, Masaharu; Ohtaki, Megu

2012-05-01

While there is a considerable number of studies on the relationship between the risk of disease or death and direct exposure from the atomic bomb in Hiroshima, the risk for indirect exposure caused by residual radioactivity has not yet been fully evaluated. One of the reasons is that risk assessments have utilized estimated radiation doses, but that it is difficult to estimate indirect exposure. To evaluate risks for other causes, including indirect radiation exposure, as well as direct exposure, a statistical method is described here that evaluates risk with respect to individual location at the time of atomic bomb exposure instead of radiation dose. In addition, it is also considered to split the risks into separate risks due to direct exposure and other causes using radiation dose. The proposed method is applied to a cohort study of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. The resultant contour map suggests that the region west to the hypocenter has a higher risk compared to other areas. This in turn suggests that there exists an impact on risk that cannot be explained by direct exposure.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk-based framework for evaluating changes in response thresholds and vulnerabilities.

Treesearch

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen

2012-01-01

Alaskan forests cover one-third of the state’s 52 million ha of land (Parson et al. 2001), and are regionally and globally significant. Ninety percent of Alaskan forests are classified as boreal, representing 4 percent of the world’s boreal forests, and are located throughout interior and south-central Alaska (fig. A1-1). The remaining 10 percent of Alaskan forests are...

IMPROVING THE TMDL PROCESS USING WATERSHED RISK ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. This has many similarities tothe placed-based analuses that are undertaken to develop total maximum daily loads...

ASSESSING SUSCEPTIBILITY FROM EARLY-LIFE EXPOSURE TO CARCINOGENS

EPA Science Inventory

Cancer risks from childhood exposures to chemicals are generally analyzed using methods based upon exposure from adults, which assumes chemicals are equally potent for inducing risks at these different lifestages. Published literature was evaluated to determine whether there was...

Evaluation of End-User Satisfaction Among Employees Participating in a Web-based Health Risk Assessment With Tailored Feedback

PubMed Central

Colkesen, Ersen B; Niessen, Maurice AJ; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Peek, Niels

2012-01-01

Background Web technology is increasingly being used to provide individuals with health risk assessments (HRAs) with tailored feedback. End-user satisfaction is an important determinant of the potential impact of HRAs, as this influences program attrition and adherence to behavioral advice. Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate end-user satisfaction with a web-based HRA with tailored feedback applied in worksite settings, using mixed (quantitative and qualitative) methods. Methods Employees of seven companies in the Netherlands participated in a commercial, web-based, HRA with tailored feedback. The HRA consisted of four components: 1) a health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, 2) a biometric evaluation, 3) a laboratory evaluation, and 4) tailored feedback consisting of a personal health risk profile and lifestyle behavior advice communicated through a web portal. HRA respondents received an evaluation questionnaire after six weeks. Satisfaction with different parts of the HRA was measured on 5-point Likert scales. A free-text field provided the opportunity to make additional comments. Results In total, 2289 employees participated in the HRA program, of which 637 (27.8%) completed the evaluation questionnaire. Quantitative analysis showed that 85.6% of the respondents evaluated the overall HRA positively. The free-text field was filled in by 29.7 % of the respondents (189 out of 637), who made 315 separate remarks. Qualitative evaluation of these data showed that these respondents made critical remarks. Respondents felt restricted by the answer categories of the health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, which resulted in the feeling that the corresponding feedback could be inadequate. Some respondents perceived the personal risk profile as unnecessarily alarming or suggested providing more explanations, reference values, and a justification of the behavioral advice given. Respondents also requested the opportunity to discuss the feedback with a health professional. Conclusions Most people were satisfied with the web-based HRA with tailored feedback. Sources of dissatisfaction were limited opportunities for providing additional health information outside of the predefined health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire and insufficient transparency on the generation of the feedback. Information regarding the aim and content of the HRA should be clear and accurate to prevent unrealistic expectations among end-users. Involving trusted health professionals in the implementation of web-based HRAs may enhance the use of and confidence in the HRA. PMID:23111097

Evaluation of end-user satisfaction among employees participating in a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback.

PubMed

Vosbergen, Sandra; Laan, Eva K; Colkesen, Ersen B; Niessen, Maurice A J; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Peek, Niels

2012-10-30

Web technology is increasingly being used to provide individuals with health risk assessments (HRAs) with tailored feedback. End-user satisfaction is an important determinant of the potential impact of HRAs, as this influences program attrition and adherence to behavioral advice. The aim of this study was to evaluate end-user satisfaction with a web-based HRA with tailored feedback applied in worksite settings, using mixed (quantitative and qualitative) methods. Employees of seven companies in the Netherlands participated in a commercial, web-based, HRA with tailored feedback. The HRA consisted of four components: 1) a health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, 2) a biometric evaluation, 3) a laboratory evaluation, and 4) tailored feedback consisting of a personal health risk profile and lifestyle behavior advice communicated through a web portal. HRA respondents received an evaluation questionnaire after six weeks. Satisfaction with different parts of the HRA was measured on 5-point Likert scales. A free-text field provided the opportunity to make additional comments. In total, 2289 employees participated in the HRA program, of which 637 (27.8%) completed the evaluation questionnaire. Quantitative analysis showed that 85.6% of the respondents evaluated the overall HRA positively. The free-text field was filled in by 29.7 % of the respondents (189 out of 637), who made 315 separate remarks. Qualitative evaluation of these data showed that these respondents made critical remarks. Respondents felt restricted by the answer categories of the health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, which resulted in the feeling that the corresponding feedback could be inadequate. Some respondents perceived the personal risk profile as unnecessarily alarming or suggested providing more explanations, reference values, and a justification of the behavioral advice given. Respondents also requested the opportunity to discuss the feedback with a health professional. Most people were satisfied with the web-based HRA with tailored feedback. Sources of dissatisfaction were limited opportunities for providing additional health information outside of the predefined health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire and insufficient transparency on the generation of the feedback. Information regarding the aim and content of the HRA should be clear and accurate to prevent unrealistic expectations among end-users. Involving trusted health professionals in the implementation of web-based HRAs may enhance the use of and confidence in the HRA.

Risk Assessment and Hierarchical Risk Management of Enterprises in Chemical Industrial Parks Based on Catastrophe Theory

PubMed Central

Chen, Yu; Song, Guobao; Yang, Fenglin; Zhang, Shushen; Zhang, Yun; Liu, Zhenyu

2012-01-01

According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP, China. According to the principle of equal distribution function, the chemical enterprise risk level was divided into the following five levels: 1.0 (very safe), 0.8 (safe), 0.6 (generally recognized as safe, GRAS), 0.4 (unsafe), 0.2 (very unsafe). The results revealed five enterprises (50%) with an unsafe risk level, and another five enterprises (50%) at the generally recognized as safe risk level. This method solves the multi-objective evaluation and decision-making problem. Additionally, this method involves simple calculations and provides an effective technique for risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in CIPs. PMID:23208298

An Innovative Multiphased Strategy to Recruit Underserved Adults into a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Diabetes Risk Reduction Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santoyo-Olsson, Jasmine; Cabrera, Julissa; Freyre, Rachel; Grossman, Melanie; Alvarez, Natalie; Mathur, Deepika; Guerrero, Maria; Delgadillo, Adriana T.; Kanaya, Alka M.; Stewart, Anita L.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To conduct and evaluate a two-phased community-based approach to recruit lower socioeconomic status, minority, or Spanish-speaking adults at risk of developing diabetes to a randomized trial of a lifestyle intervention program delivered by a public health department. Design: Within geographic areas comprising our target population, 4…

Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models.

PubMed

Allan, Sarah E; Sower, Gregory J; Anderson, Kim A

2011-10-01

Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficult to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for 3 years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models

PubMed Central

Allan, Sarah E.; Sower, Gregory J.; Anderson, Kim A.

2013-01-01

Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficulties to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for three years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks. PMID:21741671

Research Risk for Persons With Psychiatric Disorders: A Decisional Framework to Meet the Ethical Challenge

PubMed Central

Yanos, Philip T.; Stanley, Barbara S.; Greene, Carolyn S.

2010-01-01

Objective There is a lack of consensus on how to evaluate the risk of research studies conducted with persons who have psychiatric disorders. The authors reviewed research on vulnerability, risk, and procedures to mitigate risk in studies with this population to help inform evaluation of such research. Methods Searches of MEDLINE (1966–2006), PsycINFO (1967–2006), and Google Scholar used combinations of the terms mental illness, vulnerable, psychiatric, schizophrenia, and depression combined with terms such as research risk, vulnerability, research harm, capacity, risk, and mitigation of risk. Articles were identified from reference lists, and additional searches used terms from identified articles. Results Evidence for two types of vulnerability—capacity based and power based—is presented, which supports the notion of vulnerability as a state, rather than a trait, among persons with psychiatric disorders. Three categories of risk are described—minimal risk, minor increment over minimal risk, and greater than minor increment. Evidence shows that many common types of studies pose risk in the first two categories when conducted with this population. The literature also describes procedures for reducing vulnerability and mitigating risk that should be considered in study evaluations. The authors offer a framework for evaluating the category of risk posed by a study. Conclusions Although more research is needed, there is sufficient evidence that many common types of research present minimal risk or only a minor increment over minimal risk for large segments of the population of persons with psychiatric disorders, as they do for persons in the general population. PMID:19252051

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

Outcome Evaluation of a Community Center-Based Program for Mothers at High Psychosocial Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodrigo, Maria Jose; Maiquez, Maria Luisa; Correa, Ana Delia; Martin, Juan Carlos; Rodriguez, Guacimara

2006-01-01

Objective: This study reported the outcome evaluation of the "Apoyo Personal y Familiar" (APF) program for poorly-educated mothers from multi-problem families, showing inadequate behavior with their children. APF is a community-based multi-site program delivered through weekly group meetings in municipal resource centers. Method: A total…

Combining web-based tools for transparent evaluation of data for risk assessment: developmental effects of bisphenol A on the mammary gland as a case study.

PubMed

Molander, Linda; Hanberg, Annika; Rudén, Christina; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Beronius, Anna

2017-03-01

Different tools have been developed that facilitate systematic and transparent evaluation and handling of toxicity data in the risk assessment process. The present paper sets out to explore the combined use of two web-based tools for study evaluation and identification of reliable data relevant to health risk assessment. For this purpose, a case study was performed using in vivo toxicity studies investigating low-dose effects of bisphenol A on mammary gland development. The reliability of the mammary gland studies was evaluated using the Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP) criteria for toxicity studies. The Health Assessment Workspace Collaborative (HAWC) was used for characterizing and visualizing the mammary gland data in terms of type of effects investigated and reported, and the distribution of these effects within the dose interval. It was then investigated whether there was any relationship between study reliability and the type of effects reported and/or their distribution in the dose interval. The combination of the SciRAP and HAWC tools allowed for transparent evaluation and visualization of the studies investigating developmental effects of BPA on the mammary gland. The use of these tools showed that there were no apparent differences in the type of effects and their distribution in the dose interval between the five studies assessed as most reliable and the whole data set. Combining the SciRAP and HAWC tools was found to be a useful approach for evaluating in vivo toxicity studies and identifying reliable and sensitive information relevant to regulatory risk assessment of chemicals. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P.; Morgan, M.G.

Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs aboutmore » the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.« less

[Development of HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men based on Delphi method].

PubMed

Li, L L; Jiang, Z; Song, W L; Ding, Y Y; Xu, J; He, N

2017-10-10

Objective: To develop a HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men (MSM) based on Delphi method. Methods: After an exhaustive literature review, we used Delphi method to determine the specific items and relative risk scores of the assessment tool through two rounds of specialist consultation and overall consideration of the opinions and suggestions of 17 specialists. Results: The positivity coefficient through first and second round specialist consultation was 100.0 % and 94.1 % , respectively. The mean of authority coefficients ( Cr ) was 0.86. Kendall's W coefficient of the specialist consultation was 0.55 for the first round consultation (χ(2)=84.426, P <0.001) and 0.46 for the second round consultation (χ(2)=65.734, P <0.001), respectively, suggesting that the specialists had similar opinions. The final HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM has 8 items. Conclusions: The HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM, developed under the Delphi method, can be used in the evaluation of HIV infection risk in MSM and individualized prevention and intervention. However, the reliability and validity of this risk assessment tool need to be further evaluated.

Dynamic drought risk assessment using crop model and remote sensing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, H.; Su, Z.; Lv, J.; Li, L.; Wang, Y.

2017-02-01

Drought risk assessment is of great significance to reduce the loss of agricultural drought and ensure food security. The normally drought risk assessment method is to evaluate its exposure to the hazard and the vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage for a specific region, which is a static evaluation method. The Dynamic Drought Risk Assessment (DDRA) is to estimate the drought risk according to the crop growth and water stress conditions in real time. In this study, a DDRA method using crop model and remote sensing techniques was proposed. The crop model we employed is DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC) model. The drought risk was quantified by the yield losses predicted by the crop model in a scenario-based method. The crop model was re-calibrated to improve the performance by the Leaf Area Index (LAI) retrieved from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. And the in-situ station-based crop model was extended to assess the regional drought risk by integrating crop planted mapping. The crop planted area was extracted with extended CPPI method from MODIS data. This study was implemented and validated on maize crop in Liaoning province, China.

Introducing Risk Management Techniques Within Project Based Software Engineering Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Port, Daniel; Boehm, Barry

2002-03-01

In 1996, USC switched its core two-semester software engineering course from a hypothetical-project, homework-and-exam course based on the Bloom taxonomy of educational objectives (knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation). The revised course is a real-client team-project course based on the CRESST model of learning objectives (content understanding, problem solving, collaboration, communication, and self-regulation). We used the CRESST cognitive demands analysis to determine the necessary student skills required for software risk management and the other major project activities, and have been refining the approach over the last 5 years of experience, including revised versions for one-semester undergraduate and graduate project course at Columbia. This paper summarizes our experiences in evolving the risk management aspects of the project course. These have helped us mature more general techniques such as risk-driven specifications, domain-specific simplifier and complicator lists, and the schedule as an independent variable (SAIV) process model. The largely positive results in terms of review of pass / fail rates, client evaluations, product adoption rates, and hiring manager feedback are summarized as well.

Mammography Screening 2.0 - How Can Risk-Adapted Screening be Implemented in Clinical Practice?: Results of a Focus Group Discussion with Experts in the RISIKOLOTSE.DE Project.

PubMed

Fürst, Nicole; Kiechle, Marion; Strahwald, Brigitte; Quante, Anne S

2018-05-01

The mammography screening programme has been the subject of criticism for some time. Invitation to take part is currently based only on the risk factors of age and female sex, whereby women with an above-average risk are screened too seldom and women with a low risk are possibly screened too often. In future, an individualised risk assessment could make a risk-adapted procedure possible in breast cancer screening. In the RISIKOLOTSE.DE project, schemes are devised to calculate the individual breast cancer risk and evaluate the results. The aim is to assist doctors and screening participants in participatory decision-making. To gauge the baseline situation in the target groups, qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted. At the start of the project, a guideline-based focus group discussion was held with 15 doctors and representatives of the public health service. The transcript of this discussion was evaluated by means of a qualitative content analysis. The participants assessed the concept of risk-adapted screening positively overall. At the same time, the majority of them were of the opinion that the results of individualised risk calculation can be understood and evaluated adequately only by doctors. The great communication requirement and lack of remuneration were given as practical obstacles to implementation. The suggestions and new ideas from the focus group ranged from administrative and regulatory changes to new forms of counselling and adaptable practice aids. An important indicator for the RISIKOLOTSE.DE conception and for planning future surveys was that risk calculation for mammography screening 2.0 was regarded as a purely medical function and that the concept of participatory decision-making played hardly any part in the discussion.

Hui Malama O Ke Kai: A Positive Prevention-Based Youth Development Program Based on Native Hawaiian Values and Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hishinuma, Earl S.; Chang, Janice Y.; Sy, Angela; Greaney, Malia F.; Morris, Katherine A.; Scronce, Ami C.; Rehuher, Davis; Nishimura, Stephanie T.

2009-01-01

Evaluation of after-school programs that are culturally and place-based and promote positive youth development among minority and indigenous youths has not been widely published. The present evaluation is the first of its kind of an after-school, youth-risk prevention program called Hui Malama O Ke Kai (HMK), that emphasizes Native Hawaiian values…

From design to implementation - The Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) program: A descriptive report of an electronic web-based diabetes management program

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) Program is a web-based program incorporating a comprehensive risk engine, care protocols, and clinical decision support to improve ambulatory diabetes care. Methods The JADE Program uses information technology to facilitate healthcare professionals to create a diabetes registry and to deliver an evidence-based care and education protocol tailored to patients' risk profiles. With written informed consent from participating patients and care providers, all data are anonymized and stored in a databank to establish an Asian Diabetes Database for research and publication purpose. Results The JADE electronic portal (e-portal: http://www.jade-adf.org) is implemented as a Java application using the Apache web server, the mySQL database and the Cocoon framework. The JADE e-portal comprises a risk engine which predicts 5-year probability of major clinical events based on parameters collected during an annual comprehensive assessment. Based on this risk stratification, the JADE e-portal recommends a care protocol tailored to these risk levels with decision support triggered by various risk factors. Apart from establishing a registry for quality assurance and data tracking, the JADE e-portal also displays trends of risk factor control at each visit to promote doctor-patient dialogues and to empower both parties to make informed decisions. Conclusions The JADE Program is a prototype using information technology to facilitate implementation of a comprehensive care model, as recommended by the International Diabetes Federation. It also enables health care teams to record, manage, track and analyze the clinical course and outcomes of people with diabetes. PMID:20465815

Evaluation and Enhancement of Calibration in the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator.

PubMed

Liu, Yaoming; Cohen, Mark E; Hall, Bruce L; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

2016-08-01

The American College of Surgeon (ACS) NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator has been widely adopted as a decision aid and informed consent tool by surgeons and patients. Previous evaluations showed excellent discrimination and combined discrimination and calibration, but model calibration alone, and potential benefits of recalibration, were not explored. Because lack of calibration can lead to systematic errors in assessing surgical risk, our objective was to assess calibration and determine whether spline-based adjustments could improve it. We evaluated Surgical Risk Calculator model calibration, as well as discrimination, for each of 11 outcomes modeled from nearly 3 million patients (2010 to 2014). Using independent random subsets of data, we evaluated model performance for the Development (60% of records), Validation (20%), and Test (20%) datasets, where prediction equations from the Development dataset were recalibrated using restricted cubic splines estimated from the Validation dataset. We also evaluated performance on data subsets composed of higher-risk operations. The nonrecalibrated Surgical Risk Calculator performed well, but there was a slight tendency for predicted risk to be overestimated for lowest- and highest-risk patients and underestimated for moderate-risk patients. After recalibration, this distortion was eliminated, and p values for miscalibration were most often nonsignificant. Calibration was also excellent for subsets of higher-risk operations, though observed calibration was reduced due to instability associated with smaller sample sizes. Performance of NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator models was shown to be excellent and improved with recalibration. Surgeons and patients can rely on the calculator to provide accurate estimates of surgical risk. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Chabora, E.; Finley, R.J.; Greenberg, S.E.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied by the Severity of negative impact. L and S are each evaluated on five-point scales, yielding a theoretical spread in risk values of 1 through 25. So defined, these judgment-based values are categorical and ordinal - they do not represent physically measurable quantities, but are nonetheless useful for comparison and therefore decision support. The "risk entities" first evaluated are FEPs - conceptual Features, Events, and Processes based on the list published by Quintessa Ltd. After concrete scenarios are generated based on selected FEPs, scenarios become the critical entities whose associated risks are evaluated and tracked. In IBDP workshops, L and S values for 123 FEPs were generated through expert elicitation. About 30 experts in the project or in GS in general were assigned among six facilitated working groups, and each group was charged to envision risks within a sphere of project operations. Working groups covered FEPs with strong spatial characteristics - such as those related to the injection wellbore and simulated plume footprint - and "nonspatial" FEPs related to finance, regulations, legal, and stakeholder issues. Within these working groups, experts shared information, examined assumptions, refined and extended the FEP list, calibrated responses, and provided initial L and S values by consensus. Individual rankings were collected in a follow-up process via emailed spreadsheets. For each of L and S, three values were collected: Lower Bound, Best Guess, and Upper Bound. The Lower-Upper Bound ranges and the spreads among experts can be interpreted to yield rough confidence measures. Based on experts' responses, FEPs were ranked in terms of their L*S risk levels. FEP rankings were determined from individual (not consensus or averaged) results, thus no high-risk responses were damped out. The higher-risk FEPs were used to generate one or more concrete, well defined risk-bearing scenarios for each FEP. Any FEP scored by any expert as having associated risk of

Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080

Environmental risks in the developing world: exposure indicators for evaluating interventions, programmes, and policies.

PubMed

Ezzati, Majid; Utzinger, Jürg; Cairncross, Sandy; Cohen, Aaron J; Singer, Burton H

2005-01-01

Monitoring and empirical evaluation are essential components of evidence based public health policies and programmes. Consequently, there is a growing interest in monitoring of, and indicators for, major environmental health risks, particularly in the developing world. Current large scale data collection efforts are generally disconnected from micro-scale studies in health sciences, which in turn have insufficiently investigated the behavioural and socioeconomic factors that influence exposure. A basic framework is proposed for development of indicators of exposure to environmental health risks that would facilitate the (a) assessment of the health effects of risk factors, (b) design and evaluation of interventions and programmes to deliver the interventions, and (c) appraisal and quantification of inequalities in health effects of risk factors, and benefits of intervention programmes and policies. Specific emphasis is put on the features of environmental risks that should guide the choice of indicators, in particular the interactions of technology, the environment, and human behaviour in determining exposure. The indicators are divided into four categories: (a) access and infrastructure, (b) technology, (c) agents and vectors, and (d) behaviour. The study used water and sanitation, indoor air pollution from solid fuels, urban ambient air pollution, and malaria as illustrative examples for this framework. Organised and systematic indicator selection and monitoring can provide an evidence base for design and implementation of more effective and equitable technological interventions, delivery programmes, and policies for environmental health risks in resource poor settings.

A School-Based Evaluation Model for Accelerating the Education of Students At-Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fetterman, David M.; Haertel, Edward H.

This paper presents ideas for the development and utilization of a comprehensive evaluation plan for an accelerated school. It contains information about the purposes of a comprehensive evaluation, the evaluation design, and the kinds of data that might be gathered and used. The first section, "An Approach to Evaluation: Multiple Purposes and…

Incorporating Risk Assessment into the Formative Evaluation of an Authentic e-Learning Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesper, James L.; Kartoglu, Ümit; Herrington, Jan; Reeves, Thomas C.

2016-01-01

This paper describes the use of two different risk assessment strategies during the design and development of a complex authentic task-based e-learning program developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The first strategy involved the use of expert reviewers and the second strategy employed the engagement of a risk assessment expert…

Consideration of Base Rates within Universal Screening for Behavioral and Emotional Risk: A Novel Procedural Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Eklund, Katie R.

2016-01-01

Universal screening for behavioral and emotional risk represents an important component of multitiered systems of support, being a means by which schools identify at-risk students and evaluate the effectiveness of Tier 1 programming. Despite its importance, many schools have not adopted universal screening procedures, instead relying upon more…

Speech and language interventions for infants aged 0 to 2 years at high risk for cerebral palsy: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Chorna, Olena; Hamm, Ellyn; Cummings, Caitlin; Fetters, Ashley; Maitre, Nathalie L

2017-01-01

Aim We evaluated the level of evidence of speech, language, and communication interventions for infants at high-risk for, or with a diagnosis of, cerebral palsy (CP) from 0 to 2 years old. Method We performed a systematic review of relevant terms. Articles were evaluated based on the level of methodological quality and evidence according to A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) guidelines. Results The search terms provided 17 publications consisting of speech or language interventions. There were no interventions in the high level of evidence category. The overall level of evidence was very low. Promising interventions included Responsivity and Prelinguistic Milieu Teaching and other parent–infant transaction frameworks. Interpretation There are few evidence-based interventions addressing speech, language, and communication needs of infants and toddlers at high risk for CP, and none for infants diagnosed with CP. Recommendation guidelines include parent–infant transaction programs. PMID:27897320

A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

The impact of birth weight on cardiovascular disease risk in the Women's Health Initiative

PubMed Central

Smith, CJ; Ryckman, KK; Barnabei, Vanessa M.; Howard, Barbara; Isasi, Carmen R.; Sarto, Gloria; Tom, Sarah E.; Van Horn, Linda; Wallace, Robert; Robinson, Jennifer G

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Traditional risk factors predict 75-80% of an individual's risk of incident CVD. However, the role of early life experiences in future disease risk is gaining attention. The Barker hypothesis proposes fetal origins of adult disease, with consistent evidence demonstrating the deleterious consequences of birth weight outside the normal range. In this study, we investigate the role of birth weight in CVD risk prediction. Methods and Results The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) represents a large national cohort of post-menopausal women with 63 815 participants included in this analysis. Univariable proportional hazards regression analyses evaluated the association of 4 self-reported birth weight categories against 3 CVD outcome definitions, which included indicators of coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, coronary revascularization, carotid artery disease and peripheral arterial disease. The role of birth weight was also evaluated for prediction of CVD events in the presence of traditional risk factors using 3 existing CVD risk prediction equations: one body mass index (BMI)-based and two laboratory-based models. Low birth weight (LBW) (< 6 lbs.) was significantly associated with all CVD outcome definitions in univariable analyses (HR=1.086, p=0.009). LBW was a significant covariate in the BMI-based model (HR=1.128, p<0.0001) but not in the lipid-based models. Conclusion LBW (<6 lbs.) is independently associated with CVD outcomes in the WHI cohort. This finding supports the role of the prenatal and postnatal environment in contributing to the development of adult chronic disease. PMID:26708645

Risk analysis based CWR track buckling safety evaluations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

As part of the Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) track systems research program, the US DOTS Volpe Center is conducting analytic and experimental investigations to evaluate track lateral strength and stability limits for improved safety an...

No Evidence for Synergy Between Human Papillomavirus Genotypes for the Risk of High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions in a Large Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Wentzensen, Nicolas; Nason, Martha; Schiffman, Mark; Dodd, Lori; Hunt, William C.; Wheeler, Cosette M.

2014-01-01

Background. Multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes may be independently or synergistically associated with risk of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs). We evaluated the risk of HSIL in women concomitantly infected with multiple HPV genotypes. Methods. A population-based stratified sample of 59 664 cervical cytology specimens from women residing in New Mexico were evaluated for cytologic abnormalities and HPV genotypes. We calculated the risk of HSIL in women infected with a single HPV genotype and the risk in those infected with multiple HPV genotypes. Results. The highest risk of HSIL was observed for HPV-16 (0.036), followed by HPV-33 (0.028), HPV-58 (0.024), and HPV-18 (0.022). For most types, we observed a greater risk of HSIL in women infected with multiple carcinogenic HPV types. In contrast, the risk of HSIL was similar in women infected with HPV-16 and other types, compared with women infected with HPV-16 only. We observed an increased but plateauing risk of HSIL in women infected with multiple types, compared with those infected with a single type, with risk ratios of 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–1.8), 1.7 (95% CI, 1.3–2.4), and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.83–2.5) for women infected with 2, 3, and ≥4 genotypes, respectively. Conclusions. In the largest population-based study of HPV genotypes and cytologic outcomes so far, we did not see more than additive effects of HPV types on the risk of HSIL in women infected with multiple types. PMID:24179110

Perceived social risk in medical decision-making for physical child abuse: a mixed-methods study.

PubMed

Keenan, Heather T; Campbell, Kristine A; Page, Kent; Cook, Lawrence J; Bardsley, Tyler; Olson, Lenora M

2017-12-22

The medical literature reports differential decision-making for children with suspected physical abuse based on race and socioeconomic status. Differential evaluation may be related to differences of risk indicators in these populations or differences in physicians' perceptions of abuse risk. Our objective was to understand the contribution of the child's social ecology to child abuse pediatricians' perception of abuse risk and to test whether risk perception influences diagnostic decision-making. Thirty-two child abuse pediatrician participants prospectively contributed 746 consultations from for children referred for physical abuse evaluation (2009-2013). Participants entered consultations to a web-based interface. Participants noted their perception of child race, family SES, abuse diagnosis. Participants rated their perception of social risk for abuse and diagnostic certainty on a 1-100 scale. Consultations (n = 730) meeting inclusion criteria were qualitatively analyzed for social risk indicators, social and non-social cues. Using a linear mixed-effects model, we examined the associations of social risk indicators with participant social risk perception. We reversed social risk indicators in 102 cases whilst leaving all injury mechanism and medical information unchanged. Participants reviewed these reversed cases and recorded their social risk perception, diagnosis and diagnostic certainty. After adjustment for physician characteristics and social risk indicators, social risk perception was highest in the poorest non-minority families (24.9 points, 95%CI: 19.2, 30.6) and minority families (17.9 points, 95%CI, 12.8, 23.0). Diagnostic certainty and perceived social risk were associated: certainty increased as social risk perception increased (Spearman correlation 0.21, p < 0.001) in probable abuse cases; certainty decreased as risk perception increased (Spearman correlation (-)0.19, p = 0.003) in probable not abuse cases. Diagnostic decisions changed in 40% of cases when social risk indicators were reversed. CAP risk perception that poverty is associated with higher abuse risk may explain documented race and class disparities in the medical evaluation and diagnosis of suspected child physical abuse. Social risk perception may act by influencing CAP certainty in their diagnosis.

The Cost-Effective Evaluation of Syncope.

PubMed

Angus, Steven

2016-09-01

Syncope is a common clinical problem that carries a high socioeconomic burden. A structured approach in the evaluation of syncope with special emphasis on a detailed history, comprehensive physical examination that includes orthostatic vital signs, and an electrocardiogram, proves to be the most cost-effective approach. The need for additional testing and hospital admission should be based on the results of the initial evaluation and use of risk-stratification tools that help identify those syncope patients at highest risk for poor outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assuring safety without animal testing: Unilever's ongoing research programme to deliver novel ways to assure consumer safety.

PubMed

Westmoreland, Carl; Carmichael, Paul; Dent, Matt; Fentem, Julia; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Pease, Camilla; Reynolds, Fiona

2010-01-01

Assuring consumer safety without the generation of new animal data is currently a considerable challenge. However, through the application of new technologies and the further development of risk-based approaches for safety assessment, we remain confident it is ultimately achievable. For many complex, multi-organ consumer safety endpoints, the development, evaluation and application of new, non-animal approaches is hampered by a lack of biological understanding of the underlying mechanistic processes involved. The enormity of this scientific challenge should not be underestimated. To tackle this challenge a substantial research programme was initiated by Unilever in 2004 to critically evaluate the feasibility of a new conceptual approach based upon the following key components: 1.Developing new, exposure-driven risk assessment approaches. 2.Developing new biological (in vitro) and computer-based (in silico) predictive models. 3.Evaluating the applicability of new technologies for generating data (e.g. "omics", informatics) and for integrating new types of data (e.g. systems approaches) for risk-based safety assessment. Our research efforts are focussed in the priority areas of skin allergy, cancer and general toxicity (including inhaled toxicity). In all of these areas, a long-term investment is essential to increase the scientific understanding of the underlying biology and molecular mechanisms that we believe will ultimately form a sound basis for novel risk assessment approaches. Our research programme in these priority areas consists of in-house research as well as Unilever-sponsored academic research, involvement in EU-funded projects (e.g. Sens-it-iv, Carcinogenomics), participation in cross-industry collaborative research (e.g. Colipa, EPAA) and ongoing involvement with other scientific initiatives on non-animal approaches to risk assessment (e.g. UK NC3Rs, US "Human Toxicology Project" consortium).

Barbershop Talk With Brothers: using community-based participatory research to develop and pilot test a program to reduce HIV risk among Black heterosexual men.

PubMed

Wilson, Tracey E; Fraser-White, Marilyn; Williams, Kim M; Pinto, Angelo; Agbetor, Francis; Camilien, Brignel; Henny, Kirk; Browne, Ruth C; Gousse, Yolene; Taylor, Tonya; Brown, Humberto; Taylor, Raekiela; Joseph, Michael A

2014-10-01

There is a need for feasible, evidence-based interventions that support HIV risk reduction among heterosexual Black men. In this article, we describe the process for development of the Barbershop Talk With Brothers (BTWB) program and evaluation. The BTWB program is a theoretically grounded and community-based HIV prevention program that seeks to improve individual skills and motivation to decrease sexual risk, and that builds men's interest in and capacity for improving their community's health. Formative data collection included barbershop observations and barber focus groups, brief behavioral risk assessments of men in barbershops, and focus groups and individual interviews. Based on this information and in consultation with our steering committee, we developed the BTWB program and accompanying program evaluation. From April through November 2011, 80 men were recruited and completed a baseline assessment of a pilot test of the program; 78 men completed the program and 71 completed a 3-month assessment. The pilot evaluation procedures were feasible to implement, and assessments of pre- and post-test measures indicate that key behavioral outcomes and proposed mediators of those outcomes changed in hypothesized directions. Specifically, attitudes and self-efficacy toward consistent condom use improved, and respondents reported lower levels of sexual risk behavior from baseline to follow-up (all p < 0.05). Perceptions of community empowerment also increased (p = 0.06). While HIV stigma decreased, this difference did not reach statistical significance. Our approach to community-engaged program development resulted in an acceptable, feasible approach to reaching and educating heterosexual Black men about HIV prevention in community settings.

Planning for hazardous campus waste collection.

PubMed

Liu, Kun-Hsing; Shih, Shao-Yang; Kao, Jehng-Jung

2011-05-15

This study examines a procedure developed for planning a nation-wide hazardous campus waste (HCW) collection system. Alternative HCW plans were designed for different collection frequencies, truckloads, storage limits, and also for establishing an additional transfer station. Two clustering methods were applied to group adjacent campuses into clusters based on their locations, HCW quantities, the type of vehicles used and collection frequencies. Transportation risk, storage risk, and collection cost are the major criteria used to evaluate the feasibility of each alternative. Transportation risk is determined based on the accident rates for each road type and collection distance, while storage risk is calculated by estimating the annual average HCW quantity stored on campus. Alternatives with large trucks can reduce both transportation risk and collection cost, but their storage risks would be significantly increased. Alternatives that collect neighboring campuses simultaneously can effectively reduce storage risks as well as collection cost if the minimum quantity to collect for each group of neighboring campuses can be properly set. The three transfer station alternatives evaluated for northern Taiwan are cost effective and involve significantly lower transportation risk. The procedure proposed is expected to facilitate decision making and to support analyses for formulating a proper nation-wide HCW collection plan. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk evaluations and condom use decisions of homeless youth: a multi-level qualitative investigation.

PubMed

Kennedy, David P; Brown, Ryan A; Morrison, Penelope; Vie, Loryana; Ryan, Gery W; Tucker, Joan S

2015-01-31

Homeless youth are at higher risk for sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancy than non-homeless youth. However, little is known about how they evaluate risk within the context of their sexual relationships. It is important to understand homeless youths' condom use decisions in light of their sexual relationships because condom use decisions are influenced by relationship dynamics in addition to individual attitudes and event circumstances. It is also important to understand how relationship level factors, sexual event circumstances, and individual characteristics compare and intersect. To explore these issues, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 37 homeless youth in Los Angeles County in 2011 concerning their recent sexual relationships and analyzed the data using systematic methods of team-based qualitative data analysis. We identified themes of risk-related evaluations and decisions at the relationship/partner, event, and individual level. We also identified three different risk profiles that emerged from analyzing how different levels of risk intersected across individual respondents. The three profiles included 1) Risk Takers, who consistently engage in risk and have low concern about consequences of risk behavior, 2) Risk Avoiders, who consistently show high concern about protection and consistently avoid risk, and 3) Risk Reactors, those who are inconsistent in their concerns about risk and protection and mainly take risks in reaction to relationship and event circumstances. Interventions targeting homeless youth should reflect multiple levels of risk behavior and evaluation in order to address the diversity of risk profiles. Relationship/partner-, event-, and individual-level factors are all important but have different levels of importance for different homeless youth. Interventions should be tailored to address the most important factor contributing to homeless youth reproductive needs.

School-based programs to reduce sexual risk-taking behaviors.

PubMed

Kirby, D

1992-09-01

This article reviews the major approaches implemented during the last two decades to reduce sexual risk-taking behaviors, examines their evidence for success, and provides several recommendations for effective programs and program evaluations. This article does not discuss more broad-based sexuality education programs which address sexuality in a broader context. Instead, this article focuses primarily on programs that educators believed would reduce unprotected sexual intercourse.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE PAGES

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

2017-07-21

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Facility-specific radiation exposure risks and their implications for radiation workers at Department of Energy laboratories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Adam Christopher

This research develops a new framework for evaluating the occupational risks of exposure to hazardous substances in any setting where As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) practices are mandated or used. The evaluation is performed by developing a hypothesis-test-based procedure for evaluating the homogeneity of various epidemiological cohorts, and thus the appropriateness of the application of aggregate data-pooling techniques to those cohorts. A statistical methodology is then developed as an alternative to aggregate pooling for situations in which individual cohorts show heterogeneity between them and are thus unsuitable for pooled analysis. These methods are then applied to estimate the all-cancer mortality risks incurred by workers at four Department-of-Energy nuclear weapons laboratories. Both linear, no-threshold and dose-bin averaged risks are calculated and it is further shown that aggregate analysis tends to overestimate the risks with respect to those calculated by the methods developed in this work. The risk estimates developed in Chapter 2 are, in Chapter 3, applied to assess the risks to workers engaged in americium recovery operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The work described in Chapter 3 develops a full radiological protection assessment for the new americium recovery project, including development of exposure cases, creation and modification of MCNP5 models, development of a time-and-motion study, and the final synthesis of all data. This work also develops a new risk-based method of determining whether administrative controls, such as staffing increases, are ALARA-optimized. The EPA's estimate of the value of statistical life is applied to these risk estimates to determine a monetary value for risk. The rate of change of this "risk value" (marginal risk) is then compared with the rate of change of workers' compensations as additional workers are added to the project to reduce the dose (and therefore, presumably, risk) to each individual.

Clinical Validity, Understandability, and Actionability of Online Cardiovascular Disease Risk Calculators: Systematic Review.

PubMed

Bonner, Carissa; Fajardo, Michael Anthony; Hui, Samuel; Stubbs, Renee; Trevena, Lyndal

2018-02-01

Online health information is particularly important for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, where lifestyle changes are recommended until risk becomes high enough to warrant pharmacological intervention. Online information is abundant, but the quality is often poor and many people do not have adequate health literacy to access, understand, and use it effectively. This project aimed to review and evaluate the suitability of online CVD risk calculators for use by low health literate consumers in terms of clinical validity, understandability, and actionability. This systematic review of public websites from August to November 2016 used evaluation of clinical validity based on a high-risk patient profile and assessment of understandability and actionability using Patient Education Material Evaluation Tool for Print Materials. A total of 67 unique webpages and 73 unique CVD risk calculators were identified. The same high-risk patient profile produced widely variable CVD risk estimates, ranging from as little as 3% to as high as a 43% risk of a CVD event over the next 10 years. One-quarter (25%) of risk calculators did not specify what model these estimates were based on. The most common clinical model was Framingham (44%), and most calculators (77%) provided a 10-year CVD risk estimate. The calculators scored moderately on understandability (mean score 64%) and poorly on actionability (mean score 19%). The absolute percentage risk was stated in most (but not all) calculators (79%), and only 18% included graphical formats consistent with recommended risk communication guidelines. There is a plethora of online CVD risk calculators available, but they are not readily understandable and their actionability is poor. Entering the same clinical information produces widely varying results with little explanation. Developers need to address actionability as well as clinical validity and understandability to improve usefulness to consumers with low health literacy. ©Carissa Bonner, Michael Anthony Fajardo, Samuel Hui, Renee Stubbs, Lyndal Trevena. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 01.02.2018.

Planning, Implementation, and Evaluation of AIDS Education Programs for Dentists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerbert, Barbara; And Others

1991-01-01

An office-based continuing education program on acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) for dentists is described, including needs assessment, model development, local piloting, national implementation with 119 dentists, and evaluation phases. Program evaluation indicated an improvement in risk perception, knowledge, and practice resulted, but…

Evaluation of PC-based novice driver risk awareness

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-04-01

Newly licensed drivers are at an especially high risk of crashing. The first six months of solo driving are the most dangerous for teens; however, it appears that novice drivers improve their driving in a relatively short period of time as crash rate...

Is Mathematical Representation of Problems an Evidence-Based Strategy for Students with Mathematics Difficulties?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jitendra, Asha K.; Nelson, Gena; Pulles, Sandra M.; Kiss, Allyson J.; Houseworth, James

2016-01-01

The purpose of the present review was to evaluate the quality of the research and evidence base for representation of problems as a strategy to enhance the mathematical performance of students with learning disabilities and those at risk for mathematics difficulties. The authors evaluated 25 experimental and quasiexperimental studies according to…

Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios

PubMed Central

Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

2015-01-01

It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios. PMID:26086529

Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

PubMed

Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

2015-01-01

It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

Landscape ecological risk assessment study in arid land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.

2007-09-01

The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.

Ecological risk assessment based on IHA-RVA in the lower Xiaolangdi reservoir under changed hydrological situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Tao; Ma, Pan-pan; Kan, Yan-bin; Huang, Qiang

2017-12-01

Ecological risk assessment of river is an important content for protection and improvement of ecological environment. In this paper, taking Xiaolangdi reservoir for example, ecological risk assessments are studied based on the 1956-1997 and 2002-2008 dairy runoff data as the pre and post of construction of Xiaolangdi reservoir. Considering pre and post hydrological regime of construction of Xiaolangdi, ecological risk assessment index systems of downstream are established based on Index of Hydrologic Alteration-Range of Variability Approach method (IHA-RVA), which considering characters of flow, time, frequency, delay and change rate. Then ecological risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation assessment model downstream is established based on risk index and RVA method. The results show that after the construction of Xiaolangdi reservoir, ecological risk occurred in the downstream of Yellow River for changed hydrological indexes, such as monthly average flow, frequency and duration of extreme annual flow and so on, which probably destroy the whole ecosystems of the river. For example, ecological risk downstream of Xiaolangdi reservoir upgrade to level two in 2008. Research results make reference values and scientific basis both in ecological risk assessment and management of reservoir after construction.

Effects of providing personalized feedback of child's obesity risk on mothers' food choices using a virtual reality buffet.

PubMed

McBride, C M; Persky, S; Wagner, L K; Faith, M S; Ward, D S

2013-10-01

Providing personalized genetic-risk feedback of a child's susceptibility to adult-onset health conditions is a topic of considerable debate. Family health history (FHH), specifically parental overweight/obesity status, is a useful assessment for evaluating a child's genetic and environmental risk of becoming obese. It is unclear whether such risk information may influence parents' efforts to reduce their child's risk of obesity. To evaluate whether telling mothers the magnitude of their child's risk of becoming obese based on personal FHH influenced food choices for their young child from a virtual reality-based buffet restaurant. Overweight/obese mothers of a child aged 4-5 years who met eligibility criteria (N=221) were randomly assigned to one of three experimental arms, which emphasized different health information: arm 1, food safety control (Control); arm 2, behavioral-risk information (BRI) alone or arm 3, behavioral-risk information plus personal FHH-based risk assessment (BRI+FHH). Mothers donned a head-mounted display to be immersed in a virtual restaurant buffet, where they selected virtual food and beverages as a lunch for their child. Mothers who were randomized to BRI+FHH filled the index child's plate with an average of 45 fewer calories than those in the Control arm (P<0.05); those in the BRI arm filled the plate with 35 fewer calories than the Control arm, a non-significant difference. Calorie restriction was greatest among mothers in the BRI+FHH arm who received the weaker-risk message (that is, only one overweight parent). The influence of communicating a child's inherited risk of obesity on mothers' feeding practices may vary by the risk level conveyed. High-risk messages may best be coupled with strategies to increase mother's perceptions that efforts can be undertaken to reduce risk and build requisite behavioral skills to reduce risk.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-01-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-04-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Cardio-respiratory outcomes associated with exposure to wildfire smoke are modified by measures of community health

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Characterizing factors which determine susceptibility to air pollution is an important step in understanding the distribution of risk in a population and is critical for setting appropriate policies. We evaluate general and specific measures of community health as modifiers of risk for asthma and congestive heart failure following an episode of acute exposure to wildfire smoke. Methods A population-based study of emergency department visits and daily concentrations of fine particulate matter during a wildfire in North Carolina was performed. Determinants of community health defined by County Health Rankings were evaluated as modifiers of the relative risk. A total of 40 mostly rural counties were included in the study. These rankings measure factors influencing health: health behaviors, access and quality of clinical care, social and economic factors, and physical environment, as well as, the outcomes of health: premature mortality and morbidity. Pollutant concentrations were obtained from a mathematically modeled smoke forecasting system. Estimates of relative risk for emergency department visits were based on Poisson mixed effects regression models applied to daily visit counts. Results For asthma, the strongest association was observed at lag day 0 with excess relative risk of 66%(28,117). For congestive heart failure the excess relative risk was 42%(5,93). The largest difference in risk was observed after stratifying on the basis of Socio-Economic Factors. Difference in risk between bottom and top ranked counties by Socio-Economic Factors was 85% and 124% for asthma and congestive heart failure respectively. Conclusions The results indicate that Socio-Economic Factors should be considered as modifying risk factors in air pollution studies and be evaluated in the assessment of air pollution impacts. PMID:23006928

A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

PubMed

Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

2015-12-15

Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cardio-respiratory outcomes associated with exposure to wildfire smoke are modified by measures of community health.

PubMed

Rappold, Ana G; Cascio, Wayne E; Kilaru, Vasu J; Stone, Susan L; Neas, Lucas M; Devlin, Robert B; Diaz-Sanchez, David

2012-09-24

Characterizing factors which determine susceptibility to air pollution is an important step in understanding the distribution of risk in a population and is critical for setting appropriate policies. We evaluate general and specific measures of community health as modifiers of risk for asthma and congestive heart failure following an episode of acute exposure to wildfire smoke. A population-based study of emergency department visits and daily concentrations of fine particulate matter during a wildfire in North Carolina was performed. Determinants of community health defined by County Health Rankings were evaluated as modifiers of the relative risk. A total of 40 mostly rural counties were included in the study. These rankings measure factors influencing health: health behaviors, access and quality of clinical care, social and economic factors, and physical environment, as well as, the outcomes of health: premature mortality and morbidity. Pollutant concentrations were obtained from a mathematically modeled smoke forecasting system. Estimates of relative risk for emergency department visits were based on Poisson mixed effects regression models applied to daily visit counts. For asthma, the strongest association was observed at lag day 0 with excess relative risk of 66% (28,117). For congestive heart failure the excess relative risk was 42% (5,93). The largest difference in risk was observed after stratifying on the basis of Socio-Economic Factors. Difference in risk between bottom and top ranked counties by Socio-Economic Factors was 85% and 124% for asthma and congestive heart failure respectively. The results indicate that Socio-Economic Factors should be considered as modifying risk factors in air pollution studies and be evaluated in the assessment of air pollution impacts.

Process evaluation of the implementation of scorecard-based antenatal risk assessment, care pathways and interdisciplinary consultation: the Healthy Pregnancy 4 All study.

PubMed

Vos, A A; van Voorst, S F; Posthumus, A G; Waelput, A J M; Denktaş, S; Steegers, E A P

2017-09-01

To evaluate the implementation of a complex intervention in the antenatal healthcare field in 14 Dutch municipalities. The intervention consisted of the implementation of a systematic scorecard-based risk assessment in pregnancy, subsequent patient-tailored care pathways, and consultations of professionals from different medical and social disciplines. Saunders's seven-step method was used for the development of a programme implementation monitoring plan, with specific attention to the setting and context of the programme. Data were triangulated from multiple sources, and prespecified criteria were applied to examine the evidence for implementation. Six out of 11 municipalities (54%) met the implementation criteria for the entire risk assessment programme, whereas three municipalities (27%) met the criteria if the three components of implementation were analysed separately. A process evaluation of implementation of a complex intervention is possible. The results can be used to improve understanding of the associations between specific programme elements and programme outcomes on effectiveness of the intervention. Additionally, the results are important for formative purposes to assess how future implementation of antenatal risk assessment can be improved in comparable contexts. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Community Health Advisor Program to reduce cardiovascular risk among rural African-American women

PubMed Central

Cornell, C. E.; Littleton, M. A.; Greene, P. G.; Pulley, L.; Brownstein, J. N.; Sanderson, B. K.; Stalker, V. G.; Matson-Koffman, D.; Struempler, B.; Raczynski, J. M.

2009-01-01

The Uniontown, Alabama Community Health Project trained and facilitated Community Health Advisors (CHAs) in conducting a theory-based intervention designed to reduce the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) among rural African-American women. The multiphased project included formative evaluation and community organization, CHA recruitment and training, community intervention and maintenance. Formative data collected to develop the training, intervention and evaluation methods and materials indicated the need for programs to increase knowledge, skills and resources for changing behaviors that increase the risk of CVD. CHAs worked in partnership with staff to develop, implement, evaluate and maintain strategies to reduce risk for CVD in women and to influence city officials, business owners and community coalitions to facilitate project activities. Process data documented sustained increases in social capital and community capacity to address health-related issues, as well as improvements in the community’s physical infrastructure. This project is unique in that it documents that a comprehensive CHA-based intervention for CVD can facilitate wide-reaching changes in capacity to address health issues in a rural community that include improvements in community infrastructure and are sustained beyond the scope of the originally funded intervention. PMID:19047648

Priority of a Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation with a Normal Distribution in Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Wang, Lihong; Gong, Zaiwu

2017-10-10

As meteorological disaster systems are large complex systems, disaster reduction programs must be based on risk analysis. Consequently, judgment by an expert based on his or her experience (also known as qualitative evaluation) is an important link in meteorological disaster risk assessment. In some complex and non-procedural meteorological disaster risk assessments, a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation (HFLPR) is often used to deal with a situation in which experts may be hesitant while providing preference information of a pairwise comparison of alternatives, that is, the degree of preference of one alternative over another. This study explores hesitation from the perspective of statistical distributions, and obtains an optimal ranking of an HFLPR based on chance-restricted programming, which provides a new approach for hesitant fuzzy optimisation of decision-making in meteorological disaster risk assessments.

Risk analysis based CWR track buckling safety evaluations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-01

As part of the Federal Railroad Administration's (FRA) track systems research program, the US DOT'S Volpe Center is conducting analytic and experimental investigations to evaluate track lateral strength and stability limits for improved safety and pe...

[Development and clinical evaluation of an anesthesia information management system].

PubMed

Feng, Jing-yi; Chen, Hua; Zhu, Sheng-mei

2010-09-21

To study the design, implementation and clinical evaluation of an anesthesia information management system. To record, process and store peri-operative patient data automatically, all kinds of bedside monitoring equipments are connected into the system based on information integrating technology; after a statistical analysis of those patient data by data mining technology, patient status can be evaluated automatically based on risk prediction standard and decision support system, and then anesthetist could perform reasonable and safe clinical processes; with clinical processes electronically recorded, standard record tables could be generated, and clinical workflow is optimized, as well. With the system, kinds of patient data could be collected, stored, analyzed and archived, kinds of anesthesia documents could be generated, and patient status could be evaluated to support clinic decision. The anesthesia information management system is useful for improving anesthesia quality, decreasing risk of patient and clinician, and aiding to provide clinical proof.

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: a case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations.

PubMed

Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc

2009-07-01

The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

Evaluation of Human Reliability in Selected Activities in the Railway Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sujová, Erika; Čierna, Helena; Molenda, Michał

2016-09-01

The article focuses on evaluation of human reliability in the human - machine system in the railway industry. Based on a survey of a train dispatcher and of selected activities, we have identified risk factors affecting the dispatcher`s work and the evaluated risk level of their influence on the reliability and safety of preformed activities. The research took place at the authors` work place between 2012-2013. A survey method was used. With its help, authors were able to identify selected work activities of train dispatcher's risk factors that affect his/her work and the evaluated seriousness of its influence on the reliability and safety of performed activities. Amongst the most important finding fall expressions of unclear and complicated internal regulations and work processes, a feeling of being overworked, fear for one's safety at small, insufficiently protected stations.

Distinct encoding of risk and value in economic choice between multiple risky options☆

PubMed Central

Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Neural encoding of value-based stimuli is suggested to involve representations of summary statistics, including risk and expected value (EV). A more complex, but ecologically more common, context is when multiple risky options are evaluated together. However, it is unknown whether encoding related to option evaluation in these situations involves similar principles. Here we employed fMRI during a task that parametrically manipulated EV and risk in two simultaneously presented lotteries, both of which contained either gains or losses. We found representations of EV in medial prefrontal cortex and anterior insula, an encoding that was dependent on which option was chosen (i.e. chosen and unchosen EV) and whether the choice was over gains or losses. Parietal activity reflected whether the riskier or surer option was selected, whilst activity in a network of regions that also included parietal cortex reflected both combined risk and difference in risk for the two options. Our findings provide support for the idea that summary statistics underpin a representation of value-based stimuli, and further that these summary statistics undergo distinct forms of encoding. PMID:23684860

Raw food diets in companion animals: A critical review

PubMed Central

Schlesinger, Daniel P.; Joffe, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

Feeding of raw meat-based diets to pets has become an increasingly popular trend amongst pet owners. Owners, who desire to provide the best for their pets, seek veterinary opinions about food options. This paper reviews and applies standards of evidence-based medicine to grade the available scientific literature that addresses the nutritional benefits or risks, infectious disease risks, and public health implications of raw, meat-based pet diets. Although there is a lack of large cohort studies to evaluate risk or benefit of raw meat diets fed to pets, there is enough evidence to compel veterinarians to discuss human health implications of these diets with owners. PMID:21461207

Assessing the Risk of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy Using a Finger Stick Analysis in Recalls from Breast Screening: The CINFIBS Explorative Study.

PubMed

Houben, I P L; van Berlo, C J L Y; Bekers, O; Nijssen, E C; Lobbes, M B I; Wildberger, J E

2017-01-01

To evaluate whether a handheld point-of-care (POC) device is able to predict and discriminate patients at potential risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) prior to iodine-based contrast media delivery. Between December 2014 and June 2016, women undergoing contrast-enhanced spectral mammography (CESM) with an iodine-based contrast agent were asked to have their risk of CIN assessed by a dedicated POC device (StatSensor CREAT) and a risk factor questionnaire based on national guidelines. Prior to contrast injection, a venous blood sample was drawn to compare the results of POC with regular laboratory testing. A total of 351 patients were included; 344 were finally categorized as low risk patients by blood creatinine evaluation. Seven patients had a eGFR below 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , necessitating additional preparation prior to contrast delivery. The POC device failed to categorize six out of seven patients (86%), leading to (at that stage) unwanted contrast administration. Two patients subsequently developed CIN after 2-5 days, which was self-limiting after 30 days. The POC device tested was not able to reliably assess impairment of renal function in our patient cohort undergoing CESM. Consequently, we still consider classic clinical laboratory testing preferable in patients at potential risk for developing CIN.

Environmental liability protection and other advantages of voluntary cleanup programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bost, R.C.; Linton, K.E.

Historically, regulatory agencies have required that contaminated sites be returned to pristine conditions, often at very high costs. Fear of these enormous environmental liabilities has resulted in abandonment of many industrial and commercial properties, referred to as brownfields. The development of Risk-Based Corrective Action programs has provided a means for regulatory agencies to evaluate contaminated sites based on risk to human health and the environment, resulting in more reasonable remedial measures and costs. Governmental bodies have created a more flexible means of addressing contaminated sites using Risk-Based Corrective Action and other incentives to encourage the redevelopment of sites through Voluntarymore » Cleanup Programs. This study describes the development of Voluntary Cleanup Programs, and the successful implementation of Risk-Based Corrective Action with a focus on the states of Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.« less

TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linn, Rodman Ray; Koo, Eunmo; Honig, Kristen Ann

2016-08-10

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautionsmore » that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con ® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is expected to arrive from.« less

Africentric Youth and Family Rites of Passage Program: Promoting Resilience among At-Risk African American Youths

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Aminifu R.; Hill, Robert B.

2004-01-01

This article examines the effects of an Africentric youth and family rites of passage program on at-risk African American youths and their parents. Data were obtained from a three-year evaluation of a youth rites of passage demonstration project using therapeutic interventions based on Africentric principles. At-risk African American boys between…

Inter-Pregnancy Intervals and the Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder: Results of a Population-Based Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durkin, Maureen S.; DuBois, Lindsay A.; Maenner, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Recent studies have reported an increased risk of autism among second-born children conceived <12 versus >36 months after the birth of a sibling. Confirmation of this finding would point to inter-pregnancy interval (IPI) as a potentially modifiable risk factor for autism. This study evaluated the relationship between IPI and autism spectrum…

PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration: Third-Year Evaluation

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

12 Productivity Gainsharing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Risks of the Demonstration...SHARE’s cor- porate focus. Payments to DS employees are made in equal dollar shares rather than being based on a percentage of salary. RISKS OF THE...DEMONSTRATION Despite the goals of PACER SHARE and the expected benefits of the interventions, there may be risks in the demonstration. Or

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

Development of a Risk and Resilience-Based Out-of-School Time Program for Children and Youths

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anthony, Elizabeth K.; Alter, Catherine F.; Jenson, Jeffrey M.

2009-01-01

Out-of-school time (OST) programs offer a unique opportunity to provide educational supports to high-risk children and youths. The authors describe the utility of applying principles of risk and resilience to the development and evaluation of an OST program. Academic outcomes among participants at the Bridge Project, an OST program located in…

Student Assistance Program in Pennsylvania. Evaluation Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fertman, Carl I.; Schlesinger, Jo; Fichter, Cele; Tarasevich, Susan; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Wald, Holly

This report contains the second year evaluation of the Student Assistance Program (SAP) in Pennsylvania. These school-based and school-linked programs address barriers to learning for youth at risk for social and emotional problems, drug and alcohol use and abuse, and depression. Second year evaluation focused on identifying essential components…

Analyte variations in consecutive 24-hour urine collections in children.

PubMed

Ellison, Jonathan S; Hollingsworth, John M; Langman, Craig B; Asplin, John R; Schwaderer, Andrew L; Yan, Phyllis; Bierlein, Maggie; Barraza, Mark A; Defoor, William R; Figueroa, T Ernesto; Jackson, Elizabeth C; Jayanthi, Venkata R; Johnson, Emilie K; Joseph, David B; Shnorhavorian, Margarett

2017-12-01

The metabolic evaluation of children with nephrolithiasis begins with a 24-h urine collection. For adults, the diagnostic yield increases with consecutive collections; however, little is known regarding the variability of multiple 24-h studies in the pediatric population. We sought to evaluate the variability of consecutive 24-h urine collection in children through a multi-institutional study hypothesizing that compared with a single collection, consecutive 24-h urine collections would reveal a greater degree of clinically useful information in the evaluation of children at risk for nephrolithiasis. Including data from six institutions, we identified children less than 18 years of age considered at risk for recurrent nephrolithiasis, undergoing metabolic evaluation. We evaluated a subset of patients performing two collections with urine creatinine varying by 10% or less during a 7-day period. Discordance between repeat collections based on normative urine chemistry values was evaluated. A total of 733 children met inclusion criteria, and in over a third both urine calcium and urine volume differed by 30% or more between samples. Urine oxalate demonstrated greater variation between collections in children <5 years than among older children (p = 0.030) while variation in other parameters did not differ by age. Discordance between repeat samples based on normative values was most common for urine oxalate (22.5%) and the derived relative supersaturation ratios for both calcium phosphate (25.1%) and calcium oxalate (20.5%). The proportion of discordant samples, based on normative thresholds, as well as variability greater ≥30% and 50%, respectively, are shown in the table. Our analysis indicates that stone risk in as many as one in four children may be misclassified if normative values of only a single 24-h urine are used. In light of these findings, repeat 24-h urine collections prior to targeted intervention to modify stone risk are advised to increase diagnostic yield in children at risk for nephrolithiasis. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of quality risk management to set viable environmental monitoring frequencies in biotechnology processing and support areas.

PubMed

Sandle, Tim

2012-01-01

Environmental monitoring programs are essential for pharmaceutical facilities in order to assess the level of environmental control. For biotechnology facilities there is little advice as to the frequency at which viable environmental monitoring should be conducted. This paper outlines an approach, based on the principles of quality risk management, for the development of a framework from which monitoring frequencies can be determined. This involved the identification of common hazards and the evaluation those hazards in terms of the severity of contamination and the probability of contamination occurring. These elements of risk were evaluated for different cleanrooms and the relative risks ranked. Once the risk scores were calculated, the methods for detecting risks within the cleanrooms were assessed. Risk filtering was then used to group different cleanrooms based on their relative risks and detection methods against predetermined monitoring frequencies. Through use of case study examples, the paper presents the model and describes how appropriate frequencies for the environmental monitoring of cleanrooms can be set. Cleanrooms in which biotechnology pharmaceutical processing takes place are subject to environmental monitoring. The frequency at which such monitoring should be performed can be difficult to determine. This paper uses quality risk assessment methods to construct a framework for determining monitoring frequencies and illustrates the suitability of the framework through a case study.

Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

PubMed

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The application of two occupation health risk assessment models in a wooden furniture manufacturing industry].

PubMed

Wang, A H; Leng, P B; Bian, G L; Li, X H; Mao, G C; Zhang, M B

2016-10-20

Objective: To explore the applicability of 2 different models of occupational health risk assessment in wooden furniture manufacturing industry. Methods: American EPA inhalation risk model and ICMM model of occupational health risk assessment were conducted to assess occupational health risk in a small wooden furniture enterprises, respectively. Results: There was poor protective measure and equipment of occupational disease in the plant. The concentration of wood dust in the air of two workshops was over occupational exposure limit (OEL) , and the C TWA was 8.9 mg/m 3 and 3.6 mg/m 3 , respectively. According to EPA model, the workers who exposed to benzene in this plant had high risk (9.7×10 -6 ~34.3×10 -6 ) of leukemia, and who exposed to formaldehyde had high risk (11.4 × 10 -6 ) of squamous cell carcinoma. There were inconsistent evaluation results using the ICMM tools of standard-based matrix and calculated risk rating. There were very high risks to be attacked by rhinocarcinoma of the workers who exposed to wood dust for the tool of calculated risk rating, while high risk for the tool of standard-based matrix. For the workers who exposed to noise, risk of noise-induced deafness was unacceptable and medium risk using two tools, respectively. Conclusion: Both EPA model and ICMM model can appropriately predict and assessthe occupational health risk in wooden furniture manufactory, ICMM due to the relatively simple operation, easy evaluation parameters, assessment of occupational - disease - inductive factors comprehensively, and more suitable for wooden furniture production enterprise.

Prediction of breast cancer risk based on common genetic variants in women of East Asian ancestry.

PubMed

Wen, Wanqing; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Guo, Xingyi; Cai, Qiuyin; Long, Jirong; Bolla, Manjeet K; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Wang, Qin; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Ying; Dunning, Alison M; García-Closas, Montserrat; Brennan, Paul; Chen, Shou-Tung; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Hartman, Mikael; Ito, Hidemi; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Matsuo, Keitaro; Miao, Hui; Muir, Kenneth; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Shen, Chen-Yang; Teo, Soo H; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Wu, Anna H; Yip, Cheng Har; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D P; Hall, Per; Kang, Daehee; Xiang, Yongbing; Easton, Douglas F; Zheng, Wei

2016-12-08

Approximately 100 common breast cancer susceptibility alleles have been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The utility of these variants in breast cancer risk prediction models has not been evaluated adequately in women of Asian ancestry. We evaluated 88 breast cancer risk variants that were identified previously by GWAS in 11,760 cases and 11,612 controls of Asian ancestry. SNPs confirmed to be associated with breast cancer risk in Asian women were used to construct a polygenic risk score (PRS). The relative and absolute risks of breast cancer by the PRS percentiles were estimated based on the PRS distribution, and were used to stratify women into different levels of breast cancer risk. We confirmed significant associations with breast cancer risk for SNPs in 44 of the 78 previously reported loci at P < 0.05. Compared with women in the middle quintile of the PRS, women in the top 1% group had a 2.70-fold elevated risk of breast cancer (95% CI: 2.15-3.40). The risk prediction model with the PRS had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.606. The lifetime risk of breast cancer for Shanghai Chinese women in the lowest and highest 1% of the PRS was 1.35% and 10.06%, respectively. Approximately one-half of GWAS-identified breast cancer risk variants can be directly replicated in East Asian women. Collectively, common genetic variants are important predictors for breast cancer risk. Using common genetic variants for breast cancer could help identify women at high risk of breast cancer.

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments This study is conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan

Cost-Effectiveness of Staphylococcus aureus Decolonization Strategies in High-Risk Total Joint Arthroplasty Patients.

PubMed

Williams, Devin M; Miller, Andy O; Henry, Michael W; Westrich, Geoffrey H; Ghomrawi, Hassan M K

2017-09-01

The risk of prosthetic joint infection increases with Staphylococcus aureus colonization. The cost-effectiveness of decolonization is controversial. We evaluated cost-effectiveness decolonization protocols in high-risk arthroplasty patients. An analytical model evaluated risk under 3 protocols: 4 swabs, 2 swabs, and nasal swab alone. These were compared to no-screening and universal decolonization strategies. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from the hospital, patient, and societal perspective. Under base case conditions, universal decolonization and 4-swab strategies were most effective. The 2-swab and universal decolonization strategy were most cost-effective from patient and societal perspectives. From the hospital perspective, universal decolonization was the dominant strategy (much less costly and more effective). S aureus decolonization may be cost-effective for reducing prosthetic joint infections in high-risk patients. These results may have important implications for treatment of patients and for cost containment in a bundled payment system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The multiple stressor ecological risk assessment for the mercury-contaminated South River and upper Shenandoah River using the Bayesian network-relative risk model.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Ayre, Kimberley K; Johns, Annie F; Summers, Heather M; Stinson, Jonah; Harris, Meagan J; Herring, Carlie E; Markiewicz, April J

2017-01-01

We have conducted a regional scale risk assessment using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to calculate the ecological risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. Four biological endpoints (smallmouth bass, white sucker, Belted Kingfisher, and Carolina Wren) and 4 abiotic endpoints (Fishing River Use, Swimming River Use, Boating River Use, and Water Quality Standards) were included in this risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although mercury (Hg) contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, other chemical and physical stressors were evaluated. There were 3 primary conclusions from the BN-RRM results. First, risk varies according to location, type and quality of habitat, and exposure to stressors within the landscape. The patterns of risk can be evaluated with reasonable certitude. Second, overall risk to abiotic endpoints was greater than overall risk to biotic endpoints. By including both biotic and abiotic endpoints, we are able to compare risk to endpoints that represent a wide range of stakeholder values. Third, whereas Hg reduction is the regulatory priority for the South River, Hg is not the only stressor driving risk to the endpoints. Ecological and habitat stressors contribute risk to the endpoints and should be considered when managing this site. This research provides the foundation for evaluating the risks of multiple stressors of the South River to a variety of endpoints. From this foundation, tools for the evaluation of management options and an adaptive management tools have been forged. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:85-99. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Nanpeng

As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this dissertation, basic financial risk management concepts relevant for wholesale electric power markets are carefully explained and illustrated. In addition, the financial risk management problem in wholesale electric power markets is generalized as a four-stage process. Within the proposed financial risk management framework, the critical problem of financial bilateral contract negotiation is addressed. This dissertation analyzes a financial bilateral contract negotiation process between a generating company and a load-serving entity in a wholesale electric power market with congestion managed by locational marginal pricing. Nash bargaining theory is used to model a Pareto-efficient settlement point. The model predicts negotiation results under varied conditions and identifies circumstances in which the two parties might fail to reach an agreement. Both analysis and agent-based simulation are used to gain insight regarding how relative risk aversion and biased price estimates influence negotiated outcomes. These results should provide useful guidance to market participants in their bilateral contract negotiation processes.

Proposed Standardized Neurological Endpoints for Cardiovascular Clinical Trials: An Academic Research Consortium Initiative.

PubMed

Lansky, Alexandra J; Messé, Steven R; Brickman, Adam M; Dwyer, Michael; Bart van der Worp, H; Lazar, Ronald M; Pietras, Cody G; Abrams, Kevin J; McFadden, Eugene; Petersen, Nils H; Browndyke, Jeffrey; Prendergast, Bernard; Ng, Vivian G; Cutlip, Donald E; Kapadia, Samir; Krucoff, Mitchell W; Linke, Axel; Scala Moy, Claudia; Schofer, Joachim; van Es, Gerrit-Anne; Virmani, Renu; Popma, Jeffrey; Parides, Michael K; Kodali, Susheel; Bilello, Michel; Zivadinov, Robert; Akar, Joseph; Furie, Karen L; Gress, Daryl; Voros, Szilard; Moses, Jeffrey; Greer, David; Forrest, John K; Holmes, David; Kappetein, Arie P; Mack, Michael; Baumbach, Andreas

2018-05-14

Surgical and catheter-based cardiovascular procedures and adjunctive pharmacology have an inherent risk of neurological complications. The current diversity of neurological endpoint definitions and ascertainment methods in clinical trials has led to uncertainties in the neurological risk attributable to cardiovascular procedures and inconsistent evaluation of therapies intended to prevent or mitigate neurological injury. Benefit-risk assessment of such procedures should be on the basis of an evaluation of well-defined neurological outcomes that are ascertained with consistent methods and capture the full spectrum of neurovascular injury and its clinical effect. The Neurologic Academic Research Consortium is an international collaboration intended to establish consensus on the definition, classification, and assessment of neurological endpoints applicable to clinical trials of a broad range of cardiovascular interventions. Systematic application of the proposed definitions and assessments will improve our ability to evaluate the risks of cardiovascular procedures and the safety and effectiveness of preventive therapies.

A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

Treesearch

Erin Towler; Victoria A. Saab; Richard S. Sojda; Katherine Dickinson; Cindy L. Bruyere; Karen R. Newlon

2012-01-01

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a...

CV-22 Human Vibration Evaluation

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-01

for comfort and health risk based on the standard guidelines . The overall rating for comfort was marginal. The overall rating for health risk was... guidelines . Data were collected on one day during two sorties. At all three stations, the majority of flight test conditions were estimated to be...fairly uncomfortable” according to the ISO 2631-1: 1997 guidelines , which are independent of time. Based on this assessment, the overall rating for

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination.

PubMed

Burgess, Colleen; Burgess, Andrew; McMullen, Kellie

2017-01-01

Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations.

Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

2004-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

Risk-based evaluation of commercial motor vehicle roadside violations : process and results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

This report provides an analytic framework for evaluating the Atlanta Congestion Reduction Demonstration (CRD) under the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) Urban Partnership Agreement (UPA) and CRD Programs. The Atlanta CRD project...

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pesticide mixtures in the Swedish streams: Environmental risks, contributions of individual compounds and consequences of single-substance oriented risk mitigation.

PubMed

Gustavsson, Mikael; Kreuger, Jenny; Bundschuh, Mirco; Backhaus, Thomas

2017-11-15

This paper presents the ecotoxicological assessment and environmental risk evaluation of complex pesticide mixtures occurring in freshwater ecosystems in southern Sweden. The evaluation is based on exposure data collected between 2002 and 2013 by the Swedish pesticide monitoring program and includes 1308 individual samples, detecting mixtures of up to 53 pesticides (modal=8). Pesticide mixture risks were evaluated using three different scenarios for non-detects (best-case, worst-case and using the Kaplan-Meier method). The risk of each scenario was analyzed using Swedish Water Quality Objectives (WQO) and trophic-level specific environmental thresholds. Using the Kaplan-Meier method the environmental risk of 73% of the samples exceeded acceptable levels, based on an assessment using Concentration-Addition and WQOs for the individual pesticides. Algae were the most sensitive organism group. However, analytical detection limits, especially for insecticides, were insufficient to analyze concentrations at or near their WQO's. Thus, the risk of the analyzed pesticide mixtures to crustaceans and fish is systematically underestimated. Treating non-detects as being present at their individual limit of detection increased the estimated risk by a factor 100 or more, compared to the best-case or the Kaplan-Meier scenario. Pesticide mixture risks are often driven by only 1-3 compounds. However, the risk-drivers (i.e., individual pesticides explaining the largest share of potential effects) differ substantially between sites and samples, and 83 of the 141 monitored pesticides need to be included in the assessment to account for 95% of the risk at all sites and years. Single-substance oriented risk mitigation measures that would ensure that each individual pesticide is present at a maximum of 95% of its individual WQO, would also reduce the mixture risk, but only from a median risk quotient of 2.1 to a median risk quotient of 1.8. Also, acceptable total risk levels would still be exceeded in more than 70% of the samples. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Interactive Risk Detection Tool to Aid Decision-Making in Global Mangrove Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, L.; Lagomasino, D.

2017-12-01

Mangrove ecosystems hold high ecological and economic value in coastal communities worldwide; detecting potential regions of mangrove stress is therefore critical to strategic planning of forest and coastal resources. In order to address the need for a unified risk management system for mangrove loss, a Risk Evaluation for MAngroves Portal (REMaP) was developed to identify the locations and causes of mangrove degradation worldwide, as well as project future areas of stress or loss. Long-term Earth observations from LANDSAT, MODIS, and TRMM were used in identifying regions with low, medium, and high vulnerability. Regions were categorized by vulnerability level based upon disturbance metrics in NDVI, land surface temperature, and precipitation using designated thresholds. Natural risks such as erosion and degradation were also evaluated through an analysis of NDVI time series trends from calendar year 1984 to 2017. Future trends in ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency were modeled using IPCC climate scenarios. Risk maps for anthropogenic-based disturbances such as urbanization and the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture through rice, rubber, shrimp, and oil palm farming were also included. The natural and anthropogenic risk factors evaluated were then aggregated to generate a cumulative estimate for total mangrove vulnerability in each region. This interactive modeling tool can aid decision-making on the regional, national, and international levels on an ongoing basis to continuously identify areas best suited for mangrove restoration measures, assisting governments and local communities in addressing a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals for coastal areas.

Ecological risk assessment of landfill air emissions from a hazardous waste management facility in Ontario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Durda, J.L.; Suit-Kowalski, L.; Preziosi, D.

1997-12-31

An ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the potential for adverse environmental impacts associated with chemicals released to air as a result of a proposed expansion of a hazardous waste landfill in Ontario. The purpose of the risk assessment was to characterize ecological risks associated with the proposed expansion relative to those associated with the existing landfill and those that would exist if the current landfill was completely closed and background conditions prevailed. The ecological risk assessment was one part of a comprehensive environmental impact assessment of the proposed landfill continuation that was being performed under the requirements ofmore » Ontario`s Environmental Assessment Act. Air monitoring data from the facility were used to identify a list of 141 chemicals potentially released during landfill continuation, as well as to characterize current emissions and background chemical levels. An ecological risk-based chemical screening process that considered background concentration, source strength, environmental partitioning, bioaccumulation potential, and toxicity was used to select a group of 23 chemicals for detailed evaluation in the ecological risk assessment. Dispersion, deposition, partitioning and bioaccumulation modeling were used to predict potential exposures in ecological receptors. Receptors were selected for evaluation based on regional habitat characteristics, exposure potential, toxicant sensitivity, ecological significance, population status, and societal value. Livestock and agricultural crop and pasture species were key receptors for the assessment, given the highly agricultural nature of the study area. In addition, native wildlife species, including the endangered Henslow`s sparrow and the regionally vulnerable pugnose minnow, also were considered.« less

Risk Assessment in Underground Coalmines Using Fuzzy Logic in the Presence of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Ala, Charan Kumar

2018-04-01

Fatal accidents are occurring every year as regular events in Indian coal mining industry. To increase the safety conditions, it has become a prerequisite to performing a risk assessment of various operations in mines. However, due to uncertain accident data, it is hard to conduct a risk assessment in mines. The object of this study is to present a method to assess safety risks in underground coalmines. The assessment of safety risks is based on the fuzzy reasoning approach. Mamdani fuzzy logic model is developed in the fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB. A case study is used to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model. The summary of risk evaluation in case study mine indicated that mine fire has the highest risk level among all the hazard factors. This study could help the mine management to prepare safety measures based on the risk rankings obtained.

A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of a Community-Based HIV Prevention Intervention for Mexican American Female Adolescents: The SHERO's Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harper, Gary W.; Bangi, Audrey K.; Sanchez, Bernadette; Doll, Mimi; Pedraza, Ana

2009-01-01

This article describes a quasi-experimental evaluation of a community-based, culturally and ecologically tailored HIV prevention intervention for Mexican American female adolescents grounded in the AIDS risk reduction model. A total of 378 Mexican American female adolescents (mean age = 15.2) participated in either the nine-session SHERO's (a…

Evaluation of Achieving a College Education Plus: A Credit-Based Transition Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luna, Gaye; Fowler, Michael

2011-01-01

This ex post facto study evaluated Achieving a College Education (ACE) Plus program, a credit-based transition program between a high school district and a community college. Achieving a College Education Plus is an early outreach program. It is designed to aid at-risk students in graduating from high school and making a smooth transition to…

Reducing Alcohol Use in First-Year University Students: Evaluation of a Web-Based Personalized Feedback Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doumas, Diana M.; Andersen, Lorna L.

2009-01-01

The efficacy of a Web-based personalized feedback program--electronic CHECKUP TO GO (e-CHUG), aimed at reducing heavy drinking in 1st-year university students--is evaluated. Results indicated that high-risk students in the e-CHUG group reported significantly greater reductions in weekly drinking quantity, frequency of drinking to intoxication, and…

Decreasing Heavy Drinking in First-Year Students: Evaluation of a Web-Based Personalized Feedback Program Administered during Orientation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doumas, Diana M.; Kane, Christina M.; Navarro, Tabitha B.; Roman, Jennifer

2011-01-01

This study evaluated the effectiveness of a web-based personalized normative feedback program, electronic Check-Up to Go (e-CHUG), in decreasing heavy drinking among 1st-year university students. Results indicated high-risk students receiving the e-CHUG program during 1st-year orientation activities reported significantly greater reductions in…

Venous thromboembolism in medical outpatients - a cross-sectional survey of risk assessment and prophylaxis.

PubMed

Lawall, Holger; Matthiessen, Andreas; Hohmann, Volker; Bramlage, Peter; Haas, Sylvia; Schellong, Sebastian

2011-01-01

The degree of thromboprophylaxis in medical outpatients is low despite a substantial risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). This may be attributable to difficulties in assessing risk. Assessment tools like the Haas' scorecard aid in determining the need for thromboprophylaxis. We aimed at evaluating how the use of this tool may aid physicians in appropriately using anticoagulants. This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional survey of acute medically ill patients with limited mobility treated by general practitioners and internists. Risk assessment for VTE by the treating physician was compared to calculated risk. Of 8,123 patients evaluated between August 2006 and April 2008, 7,271 fulfilled the in- and exclusion criteria. Mean age was 69.4 ± 13.6 years, and 45.2% were male. Of these 82.8% were high risk based on their acute medical condition, 37.9% based on their underlying chronic condition. Immobilisation, heart failure, pneumonia, age, obesity, and major varicosis were the most frequently encountered risk factors. The agreement between the Haas' scorecard and physician indicated risk was high. At least 94.1% of patients with high risk received adequate anticoagulation mostly as low molecular weight heparins for a mean duration of 15.1 ± 30.5 days. There is a substantial risk for VTE in medical outpatients. Using a simple structured scorecard resulted in an overall appropriate risk assessment and high degree of anticoagulation. The scorecard may provide a tool to improve the overall awareness for VTE risk in medical outpatients, substantially improving the degree of prophylaxis in a patient population with largely underestimated risk.

PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

2006-01-01

The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codesmore » and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs.« less

ARAMIS project: a more explicit demonstration of risk control through the use of bow-tie diagrams and the evaluation of safety barrier performance.

PubMed

de Dianous, Valérie; Fiévez, Cécile

2006-03-31

Over the last two decades a growing interest for risk analysis has been noted in the industries. The ARAMIS project has defined a methodology for risk assessment. This methodology has been built to help the industrialist to demonstrate that they have a sufficient risk control on their site. Risk analysis consists first in the identification of all the major accidents, assuming that safety functions in place are inefficient. This step of identification of the major accidents uses bow-tie diagrams. Secondly, the safety barriers really implemented on the site are taken into account. The barriers are identified on the bow-ties. An evaluation of their performance (response time, efficiency, and level of confidence) is performed to validate that they are relevant for the expected safety function. At last, the evaluation of their probability of failure enables to assess the frequency of occurrence of the accident. The demonstration of the risk control based on a couple gravity/frequency of occurrence is also possible for all the accident scenarios. During the risk analysis, a practical tool called risk graph is used to assess if the number and the reliability of the safety functions for a given cause are sufficient to reach a good risk control.

[Statement of the Spanish Interdisciplinary Cardiovascular Prevention Committee (CEIPC) on the 2012 European Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines].

PubMed

Royo-Bordonada, Miguel Ángel; Lobos Bejarano, José María; Villar Alvarez, Fernando; Sans, Susana; Pérez, Antonio; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Moreno Carriles, Rosa María; Maiques, Antonio; Lizcano, Angel; Lizarbe, Vicenta; Gil Núñez, Antonio; Fornés Ubeda, Francisco; Elosua, Roberto; de Santiago Nocito, Ana; de Pablo Zarzosa, Carmen; de Álvaro Moreno, Fernando; Cortés, Olga; Cordero, Alberto; Camafort Babkowski, Miguel; Brotons Cuixart, Carlos; Armario, Pedro

2013-01-01

Based on the two main frameworks for evaluating scientific evidence--SEC and GRADE--European cardiovascular prevention guidelines recommend interventions across all life stages using a combination of population-based and high-risk strategies with diet as the cornerstone of prevention. The evaluation of cardiovascular risk (CVR) incorporates HDL levels and psychosocial factors, a very high risk category, and the concept of age-risk. They also recommend cognitive-behavioural methods (e.g., motivational interviewing, psychological interventions, led by health professionals and with the participation of the patient's family, to counterbalance psychosocial stress and reduce CVR through the institution of positive habits such as a healthy diet, physical activity, smoking cessation, and adherence to treatment. Additionally, public health interventions--such as smoking ban in public areas or the elimination of trans fatty acids from the food chain--are also essential. Other innovations include abandoning antiplatelet therapy in primary prevention and the recommendation of maintaining blood pressure (BP) within the 130-139/80-85 mmHg range in diabetic patients and individuals with high CVR. Finally, due to the significant impact on patient progress and medical costs, special emphasis is given to the low therapeutic adherence levels observed. In sum, improving cardiovascular prevention requires a true partnership among the political class, public administrations, scientific and professional associations, health foundations, consumer associations, patients and their families. Such partnership would promote population-based and individual strategies by taking advantage of the broad spectrum of scientific evidence available, from clinical trials to observational studies and mathematical models to evaluate population-based interventions, including cost-effectiveness analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Veeramany, Arun

This research report summaries the development and evaluation of a prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology (framework) that includes alternative risk metrics and uncertainty analysis. This updated ERM methodology accounts for uncertainty in the equipment condition assessment (ECA), the prognostic result, and the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. It is anticipated that the ability to characterize uncertainty in the estimated risk and update the risk estimates in real time based on equipment condition assessment (ECA) will provide a mechanism for optimizing plant performance while staying within specified safety margins. These results (based on impacting active component O&M using real-time equipmentmore » condition information) are a step towards ERMs that, if integrated with AR supervisory plant control systems, can help control O&M costs and improve affordability of advanced reactors.« less

A SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING COMPARATIVE RISK IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

There are significant scientific and technological challenges to managing natural resources. Data needs are cited as an obvious limitation, but there exist more fundamental scientific issues. What is still needed is a method of comparing management strategies based on projected i...

Automated Risk Assessment for School Violence: a Pilot Study.

PubMed

Barzman, Drew; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Bachtel, Alycia; Lin, Kenneth; Jackson, Hannah; Sorter, Michael; DelBello, Melissa

2018-05-01

School violence has increased over the past ten years. This study evaluated students using a more standard and sensitive method to help identify students who are at high risk for school violence. 103 participants were recruited through Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (CCHMC) from psychiatry outpatient clinics, the inpatient units, and the emergency department. Participants (ages 12-18) were active students in 74 traditional schools (i.e. non-online education). Collateral information was gathered from guardians before participants were evaluated. School risk evaluations were performed with each participant, and audio recordings from the evaluations were later transcribed and manually annotated. The BRACHA (School Version) and the School Safety Scale (SSS), both 14-item scales, were used. A template of open-ended questions was also used. This analysis included 103 participants who were recruited from 74 different schools. Of the 103 students evaluated, 55 were found to be moderate to high risk and 48 were found to be low risk based on the paper risk assessments including the BRACHA and SSS. Both the BRACHA and the SSS were highly correlated with risk of violence to others (Pearson correlations>0.82). There were significant differences in BRACHA and SSS total scores between low risk and high risk to others groups (p-values <0.001 under unpaired t-test). In particular, there were significant differences in individual SSS items between the two groups (p-value <0.001). Of these items, Previous Violent Behavior (Pearson Correlation = 0.80), Impulsivity (0.69), School Problems (0.64), and Negative Attitudes (0.61) were positively correlated with risk to others. The novel machine learning algorithm achieved an AUC of 91.02% when using the interview content to predict risk of school violence, and the AUC increased to 91.45% when demographic and socioeconomic data were added. Our study indicates that the BRACHA and SSS are clinically useful for assessing risk for school violence. The machine learning algorithm was highly accurate in assessing school violence risk.

Suicide risk in patients with anxiety disorders: a meta-analysis of the FDA database.

PubMed

Khan, Arif; Leventhal, Robyn M; Khan, Shirin; Brown, Walter A

2002-04-01

Previous reports of suicide risk in patients with anxiety disorders have been inconsistent. Using the FDA database, we assessed suicide and suicide attempt risk among patients, participating in recent clinical trials evaluating new anti-anxiety medications, with diagnosis of panic disorder (PD), social anxiety disorder or social phobia (SP), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). Overall, among 20076 participating anxious patients, 12 committed suicide and 28 attempted suicide. The annual suicide risk rate was 193/100000 patients and annual suicide attempt risk was 1350/100000 patients. Clinical trial data have limited applicability to clinical practice. Participants in clinical trials are a highly selected, nonrepresentative sample of the clinical population. A number of patients never complete clinical trials and thus data are based on a limited sub-sample. These trials were not primarily designed to assess suicide risk. Suicide risk in patients with anxiety disorders is higher than previously thought. Patients with anxiety disorders warrant explicit evaluation for suicide risk.

Identifying High-Risk Patients without Labeled Training Data: Anomaly Detection Methodologies to Predict Adverse Outcomes

PubMed Central

Syed, Zeeshan; Saeed, Mohammed; Rubinfeld, Ilan

2010-01-01

For many clinical conditions, only a small number of patients experience adverse outcomes. Developing risk stratification algorithms for these conditions typically requires collecting large volumes of data to capture enough positive and negative for training. This process is slow, expensive, and may not be appropriate for new phenomena. In this paper, we explore different anomaly detection approaches to identify high-risk patients as cases that lie in sparse regions of the feature space. We study three broad categories of anomaly detection methods: classification-based, nearest neighbor-based, and clustering-based techniques. When evaluated on data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), these methods were able to successfully identify patients at an elevated risk of mortality and rare morbidities following inpatient surgical procedures. PMID:21347083

Evaluation of cost-effective sol-gel-based sensor for monitoring of formaldehyde in workplace environment and cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Bunkoed, Opas; Thavarungkul, Panote; Thammakhet, Chongdee; Kanatharana, Proespichaya

2013-01-01

Formaldehyde was monitored in the workplace environment of an adhesive manufacturer producing formaldehyde and urea-formaldehyde resin using a cost-effective sol-gel-based sensor. The sensor was first evaluated by comparing its performance to the conventional 2,4-dinitrophynylhydrazine-devivatization method (2,4-DNPH) followed by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to a UV detector. The formaldehyde concentrations obtained by both techniques were not significantly different. The cost-effective sol-gel-based sensor was then used for monitoring formaldehyde levels in the laboratories, production areas and storage room. Formaldehyde concentrations in this adhesive manufacturer workplace environment were lower than the limit value of, 0.75 ppm for an 8-h time weight average and 2 ppm for a short-term exposure (15 min). However, the cancer risk for employees who worked in the laboratories, (1.7±0.7)×10(-4)-(5±2)×10(-4), were higher than the acceptable cancer risk recommended by the US EPA (10(-6)). Therefore, some precaution should be taken to reduce the risk, such as an increase of ventilation to dilute the levels of formaldehyde and use air cleaners to remove formaldehyde.

Multilocus genetic risk scores for venous thromboembolism risk assessment.

PubMed

Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre-Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

2014-10-23

Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL-rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT-rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age- and sex-matched case-control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature-based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5-rs6025 and F2-rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

2014-01-01

Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

PubMed

McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

2016-08-01

To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P < 0.00001) and octreotide (odds ratio 3.30, P < 0.00001). When adjusting for risk, performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

Soy intake and breast cancer risk: an evaluation based on a systematic review of epidemiologic evidence among the Japanese population.

PubMed

Nagata, Chisato; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Tanaka, Keitaro; Tsuji, Ichiro; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Matsuo, Keitaro; Wakai, Kenji; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Sasazuki, Shizuka

2014-03-01

We reviewed epidemiological studies of soy intake and breast cancer among Japanese women. This report is one among a series of articles by our research group, which is evaluating the existing evidence concerning the association between health-related lifestyles and cancer. Original data were obtained from MEDLINE searches using PubMed or from searches of the Ichushi database, complemented with manual searches. Evaluation of associations was based on the strength of evidence and the magnitude of association, together with biological plausibility. Five cohort studies and six case-control studies were identified. Among the cohort studies, two studies observed that total soy intake (in terms of total amounts of soy foods or soy isoflavones) was associated with a moderate (0.5 ≤ relative risk ≤ 0.67 with statistical significance) or strong (relative risk ≤ 0.5 with statistical significance) risk reduction of breast cancer in postmenopausal women. Among the case-control studies, two studies reported a weak (0.67 ≤ odds ratio ≤ 1.5 with statistical significance or 0.5 ≤ odds ratio ≤ 0.67 without statistical significance) inverse association between total soy intake and the risk of breast cancer. In the former, this association was observed in all women combined-premenopausal and postmenopausal women-but in the latter, the association was confined to postmenopausal women. The associations of intakes of individual soy foods with the risk of breast cancer were generally null. There is some evidence that supports the biological plausibility of a protective effect of isoflavones on breast cancer risk. We conclude that soy intake possibly decreases the risk of breast cancer among Japanese women.

Evaluation of Risk Factors for Severe Pneumonia in Children: The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health Study

PubMed Central

Deloria-Knoll, Maria; Feikin, Daniel R.; DeLuca, Andrea N.; Driscoll, Amanda J.; Moïsi, Jennifer C.; Johnson, Hope L.; Murdoch, David R.; O’Brien, Katherine L.; Levine, Orin S.; Scott, J. Anthony G.

2012-01-01

As a case-control study of etiology, the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) project also provides an opportunity to assess the risk factors for severe pneumonia in hospitalized children at 7 sites. We identified relevant risk factors by literature review and iterative expert consultation. Decisions for inclusion in PERCH were based on comparability to published data, analytic plans, data collection costs and logistic feasibility, including interviewer time and subject fatigue. We aimed to standardize questions at all sites, but significant variation in the economic, cultural, and geographic characteristics of sites made it difficult to obtain this objective. Despite these challenges, the depth of the evaluation of multiple risk factors across the breadth of the PERCH sites should furnish new and valuable information about the major risk factors for childhood severe and very severe pneumonia, including risk factors for pneumonia caused by specific etiologies, in developing countries. PMID:22403226

Evaluation of risk factors for severe pneumonia in children: the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study.

PubMed

Wonodi, Chizoba B; Deloria-Knoll, Maria; Feikin, Daniel R; DeLuca, Andrea N; Driscoll, Amanda J; Moïsi, Jennifer C; Johnson, Hope L; Murdoch, David R; O'Brien, Katherine L; Levine, Orin S; Scott, J Anthony G

2012-04-01

As a case-control study of etiology, the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) project also provides an opportunity to assess the risk factors for severe pneumonia in hospitalized children at 7 sites. We identified relevant risk factors by literature review and iterative expert consultation. Decisions for inclusion in PERCH were based on comparability to published data, analytic plans, data collection costs and logistic feasibility, including interviewer time and subject fatigue. We aimed to standardize questions at all sites, but significant variation in the economic, cultural, and geographic characteristics of sites made it difficult to obtain this objective. Despite these challenges, the depth of the evaluation of multiple risk factors across the breadth of the PERCH sites should furnish new and valuable information about the major risk factors for childhood severe and very severe pneumonia, including risk factors for pneumonia caused by specific etiologies, in developing countries.

Constellation Program (CxP) Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Project Integrated Landing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John D.; Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.; Eisenman, David J.; Peer, Scott G.; Fasanella, Edward L.; Lawrence, Charles

2009-01-01

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Chief Engineer requested a risk comparison of the Integrated Landing System design developed by NASA and the design developed by Contractor- referred to as the LM 604 baseline. Based on the results of this risk comparison, the CEV Chief engineer requested that the NESC evaluate identified risks and develop strategies for their reduction or mitigation. The assessment progressed in two phases. A brief Phase I analysis was performed by the Water versus Land-Landing Team to compare the CEV Integrated Landing System proposed by the Contractor against the NASA TS-LRS001 baseline with respect to risk. A phase II effort examined the areas of critical importance to the overall landing risk, evaluating risk to the crew and to the CEV Crew Module (CM) during a nominal land-landing. The findings of the assessment are contained in this report.

Developing a risk-based trading scheme for cattle in England: farmer perspectives on managing trading risk for bovine tuberculosis.

PubMed

Little, R; Wheeler, K; Edge, S

2017-02-11

This paper examines farmer attitudes towards the development of a voluntary risk-based trading scheme for cattle in England as a risk mitigation measure for bovine tuberculosis (bTB). The research reported here was commissioned to gather evidence on the type of scheme that would have a good chance of success in improving the information farmers receive about the bTB risk of cattle they buy. Telephone interviews were conducted with a stratified random sample of 203 cattle farmers in England, splitting the interviews equally between respondents in the high-risk area and low-risk area for bTB. Supplementary interviews and focus groups with farmers were also carried out across the risk areas. Results suggest a greater enthusiasm for a risk-based trading scheme in low-risk areas compared with high-risk areas and among members of breed societies and cattle health schemes. Third-party certification of herds by private vets or the Animal and Plant Health Agency were regarded as the most credible source, with farmer self-certification being favoured by sellers, but being regarded as least credible by buyers. Understanding farmers' attitudes towards voluntary risk-based trading is important to gauge likely uptake, understand preferences for information provision and to assist in monitoring, evaluating and refining the scheme once established. British Veterinary Association.

High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) System Risk-Based Inspection Guide for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, S.; DiBiasio, A.; Gunther, W.

1993-09-01

The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A System Risk-Based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2 and 3. The role of. the HPCI system in mitigating accidents is discussed in this S-RIG, along with insights on identified risk-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG provides a review of industry-wide operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples to augment the PRA and operational considerations in identifying a catalogue of basic PRA failuremore » modes for the HPCI system. It is designed to be used as a reference for routine inspections, self-initiated safety system functional inspections (SSFIs), and the evaluation of risk significance of component failures at the nuclear power plant.« less

Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

PubMed

Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

2011-06-01

Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

Potable Water Reuse: What Are the Microbiological Risks?

PubMed

Nappier, Sharon P; Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E

2018-06-01

With the increasing interest in recycling water for potable reuse purposes, it is important to understand the microbial risks associated with potable reuse. This review focuses on potable reuse systems that use high-level treatment and de facto reuse scenarios that include a quantifiable wastewater effluent component. In this article, we summarize the published human health studies related to potable reuse, including both epidemiology studies and quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA). Overall, there have been relatively few health-based studies evaluating the microbial risks associated with potable reuse. Several microbial risk assessments focused on risks associated with unplanned (or de facto) reuse, while others evaluated planned potable reuse, such as indirect potable reuse (IPR) or direct potable reuse (DPR). The reported QMRA-based risks for planned potable reuse varied substantially, indicating there is a need for risk assessors to use consistent input parameters and transparent assumptions, so that risk results are easily translated across studies. However, the current results overall indicate that predicted risks associated with planned potable reuse scenarios may be lower than those for de facto reuse scenarios. Overall, there is a clear need to carefully consider water treatment train choices when wastewater is a component of the drinking water supply (whether de facto, IPR, or DPR). More data from full-scale water treatment facilities would be helpful to quantify levels of viruses in raw sewage and reductions across unit treatment processes for both culturable and molecular detection methods.

[Distribution and risk assessment of mercury species in soil of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir].

PubMed

Zhang, Cheng; Chen, Hong; Wang, Ding-Yong; Sun, Rong-Guo; Zhang, Jin-Yang

2014-03-01

To investigate pollution level and ecological risk of mercury in soils of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, 192 surface soil samples from 14 counties (districts) in Chongqing were obtained. Concentrations of THg and Hg species, bioavailable Hg were analyzed and discussed. Geoaccumulation index (I(geo)) and Håkanson potential ecological risk index (E(r)) were applied to assess the pollution status and potential ecological risk of THg and Hg species, respectively. The results showed that significant differences in the concentration of THg were found in soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The THg concentration ranged from 22.4 to 393.5 microg x kg(-1), with an average of (84.2 +/- 54.3) microg x kg(-1). 76.6% of the samples' THg content was higher than the soil background value in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. The percentage of five mercury species (water-soluble Hg, HCl-soluble Hg, KOH-soluble Hg, H2O2-soluble Hg, residue Hg) in soils were 4.1%, 15.5%, 18.3%, 10.9%, 51.3%, respectively. The average concentrations of bioavailable mercury varied between 19.7-36.6 microg x kg(-1), and the percentage of bioavailable Hg was 22.1%-51.6% of THg. According to the geoaccumulation index, the soils were lightly polluted by Hg. Håkanson single potential ecological risk index evaluation showed that Hg species had a low potential ecological risk, moreover, soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir were at low ecological risk levels as evaluated by bioavailable Hg. While, the assessment results based on THg of soils was much higher than that based on the Hg species. Two methods of evaluation showed that the I(geo) and E(r) values calculated based on the Hg species better reflected the actual pollution levels of soils and its hazard to aquatic organisms.

Integrating human impacts and ecological integrity into a risk-based protocol for conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, K.M.; Angermeier, P.L.

2007-01-01

Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers-energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions-might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which can inform local and regional conservation planning. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

PubMed

Hommen, Udo; Schmitt, Walter; Heine, Simon; Brock, Theo Cm; Duquesne, Sabine; Manson, Phil; Meregalli, Giovanna; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; van Vliet, Peter; Arts, Gertie

2016-01-01

This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also linked to the exposure scenarios, and 2) quantitative protection goals be set to facilitate the interpretation of model results for risk assessment. © 2015 SETAC.

[Evaluation of the cost of treating pressure ulcers in hospitalized patients using industrialized dressings].

PubMed

Lima, Angela Cristina Beck; Guerra, Diana Mendonça

2011-01-01

This work evaluated wound dresses used in the Neurosurgery Department of Restauração Hospital: polyurethane, hydrogel and activated carbon wound dresses and hydrogel with alginate used for pressure ulcer care. This work aimed to identify a critical factor that increases demand and cost of wound dresses. The evaluation conducted at the Neurosurgery Department identified individuals at risk of pressure ulcer development. Sixty-two patients were evaluated and the prevalence of pressure ulcer was 22.6% according to the Braden scale. Comparative evaluation between patients that didn't receive preventive measures and others that received, showed that the average daily cost of hospitalization for the first group was 45% higher than the mean for the second group. The Wilcoxon-Mann-Withiney test compared the population at risk to develop pressure ulcer and population at low risk showing that the evaluation of Braden Scale scores between the groups presents statistically significant differences and confidence limits of 95%. Pressure ulcer is a key quality indicator in health services.It is possible to reduce costs and offer higher quality public health services by implementing a training program of nursing staff using a preventive measure protocol based on a test to evaluate risk as Braden Scale.

Presenting risk information to people with diabetes: evaluating effects and preferences for different formats by a web-based randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Edwards, Adrian; Thomas, Richard; Williams, Rhys; Ellner, Andrew L; Brown, Polly; Elwyn, Glyn

2006-11-01

Web-based patient information is widespread and information on the benefits and risks of treatments is often difficult to understand. We therefore evaluated different risk presentation formats - numerical, graphical and others - addressing the pros and cons of tight control versus usual treatment approaches for diabetes. Randomised controlled trial. Online. Publicity disseminated via Diabetes UK. People with diabetes or their carers. Control group information based on British Medical Journal 'Best Treatments'. Four intervention groups received enhanced information resources: (1) detailed numerical information (absolute/relative risk, numbers-needed-to-treat); (2) 'anchoring' to familiar risks or descriptions; (3) graphical (bar charts, thermometer scales, crowd figure formats); (4) combination of 1-3. Decision conflict scale (DCS, a measure of uncertainty); satisfaction with information; further free text responses for qualitative content analysis. Seven hundred and ten people visited the website and were randomised. Five hundred and eight completed the questionnaire for quantitative data. Mean DCS scores ranged from 2.12 to 2.24 for the five randomisation groups, indicating neither clear delay or vacillation about decisions (usually DCS>2.5) nor tending to make decisions (usually DCS<2.0). There were no statistically significant effects of the interventions on DCS, or satisfaction with information. Two hundred and fifty-six participants provided responses for qualitative analysis: most found graphical representations helpful, specifically bar chart formats; many found other graphic formats (thermometer style, crowd figures/smiley faces) and 'anchoring' information unhelpful, and indicated information overload. Many negative experiences with healthcare indicate a challenging context for effective information provision and decision support. Online evaluation of different risk representation formats was feasible. There was a lack of intervention effects on quantitative outcomes, perhaps reflecting already well-informed participants from the Diabetes UK patient organisation. The large qualitative dataset included many comments about what participants found helpful as formats for communicating risk information. These findings assist the design of online decision aids and the representation of risk information. The challenge is to provide more information, in appropriate and clear formats, but without risking information overload. Interactive web designs hold much promise to achieve this.

HIV testing and sexual risk reduction counseling in office-based buprenorphine/naloxone treatment.

PubMed

Edelman, E Jennifer; Moore, Brent A; Caffrey, Sarah; Sikkema, Kathleen J; Jones, Emlyn S; Schottenfeld, Richard S; Fiellin, David A; Fiellin, Lynn E

2013-01-01

We assessed the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing with sexual risk reduction counseling for opioid-dependent patients initiating office-based buprenorphine/naloxone treatment. We conducted a 14-week randomized, controlled trial with 30 patients (original target of 114) assigned to receive buprenorphine/naloxone induction/stabilization and HIV testing with Brief Sexual Risk Management (BSRM) or Enhanced Sexual Risk Management (ESRM). We evaluated process measures and compared outcomes at baseline and during the 3-month follow-up. Similar proportions of patients receiving BSRM and ESRM underwent HIV testing (93% vs 80%; P = 0.28) and completed counseling sessions (80% vs 67%; P = 0.40). Brief Sexual Risk Management sessions were shorter than ESRM sessions (15.4 vs 23.4 minutes), with comparable manual adherence (P = 0.80). Outcomes did not vary by BSRM versus ESRM. Although the recruitment of opioid-dependent patients with sexual risk behaviors is challenging, HIV testing with sexual risk reduction counseling in office-based buprenorphine/naloxone treatment practice is feasible. Interventions to decrease sexual risk behaviors among a segment of this population are necessary.

78 FR 36205 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

... identification, referral for services, and service follow-up of youth at risk. \\1\\ The evaluation as designed... activities of the grantees, the research questions outlined in the evaluation statement of work, and the state of the knowledge base in the field of suicide prevention. As such, while the evaluation design...

CHEMICAL HAZARD EVALUATION FOR MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES: A METHOD FOR RANKING AND SCORING CHEMICALS BY POTENTIAL HUMAN HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

EPA Science Inventory

Between 60,000 and 100,000 of the over than 8,000,000 chemicals listed by the Chemical Abstracts Services Registry are commercially produced and are potential environmental pollutants. Risk-based evaluation for these chemicals is often required to evaluate the potential impacts...

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

Health Risk Assessment for Exposure to Benzene in Petroleum Refinery Environments

PubMed Central

Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

2015-01-01

The health risk resulting from benzene exposure in petroleum refineries was calculated using data from the scientific literature from various countries throughout the world. The exposure data was collated into four scenarios from petroleum refinery environments and plotted as cumulative probability distributions (CPD) plots. Health risk was evaluated for each scenario using the Hazard Quotient (HQ) at 50% (CEXP50) and 95% (CEXP95) exposure levels. Benzene levels were estimated to pose a significant risk with HQ50 > 1 and HQ95 > 1 for workers exposed to benzene as base estimates for petroleum refinery workers (Scenario 1), petroleum refinery workers evaluated with personal samplers in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 2B) and evaluated using air inside petroleum refineries in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 3B). HQ50 < 1 were calculated for petroleum refinery workers with personal samplers in Italian refineries (Scenario 2A), air inside petroleum refineries (Scenario 3A) and air outside petroleum refineries (Scenario 4) in India and Taiwan indicating little possible adverse health effects. Also, HQ95 was < 1 for Scenario 4 however potential risk was evaluated for Scenarios 2A and 3A with HQ95 > 1. The excess Cancer risk (CR) for lifetime exposure to benzene for all the scenarios was evaluated using the Slope Factor and Overall Risk Probability (ORP) methods. The result suggests a potential cancer risk for exposure to benzene in all the scenarios. However, there is a higher cancer risk at 95% (CEXP95) for petroleum refinery workers (2B) with a CR of 48,000 per 106 and exposure to benzene in air inside petroleum refineries (3B) with a CR of 28,000 per 106. PMID:25588154

Risks of a lifetime in construction. Part II: Chronic occupational diseases.

PubMed

Ringen, Knut; Dement, John; Welch, Laura; Dong, Xiuwen Sue; Bingham, Eula; Quinn, Patricia S

2014-11-01

We developed working-life estimates of risk for dust-related occupational lung disease, COPD, and hearing loss based on the experience of the Building Trades National Medical Screening Program in order to (1) demonstrate the value of estimates of lifetime risk, and (2) make lifetime risk estimates for common conditions among construction workers. Estimates of lifetime risk were performed based on 12,742 radiographic evaluations, 12,679 spirometry tests, and 11,793 audiograms. Over a 45-year working life, 16% of construction workers developed COPD, 11% developed parenchymal radiological abnormality, and 73.8% developed hearing loss. The risk for occupationally related disease over a lifetime in a construction trade was 2-6 times greater than the risk in non-construction workers. When compared with estimates from annualized cross-sectional data, lifetime risk estimates are highly useful for risk expression, and should help to inform stakeholders in the construction industry as well as policy-makers about magnitudes of risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Africentric youth and family rites of passage program: promoting resilience among at-risk African American youths.

PubMed

Harvey, Aminifu R; Hill, Robert B

2004-01-01

This article examines the effects of an Africentric youth and family rites of passage program on at-risk African American youths and their parents. Data were obtained from a three-year evaluation of a youth rites of passage demonstration project using therapeutic interventions based on Africentric principles. At-risk African American boys between ages 11.5 and 14.5 years with no history of substance abuse were referred from the criminal justice system, diversion programs, and local schools. The evaluation revealed that participating youths exhibited gains in self-esteem and accurate knowledge of the dangers of drug abuse. Although the differences were not statistically significant, parents demonstrated improvements in parenting skills, racial identity, cultural awareness, and community involvement. Evidence from interviews and focus groups suggests that the program's holistic, family-oriented, Africentric, strengths-based approach and indigenous staff contributed to its success.

An Approach for Integrating Toxicogenomic Data in Risk Assessment: The Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study

EPA Science Inventory

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and ...

Quantitative AOP-based predictions for two aromatase inhibitors evaluating the influence of bioaccumulation on prediction accuracy

EPA Science Inventory

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework can be used to support the use of mechanistic toxicology data as a basis for risk assessment. For certain risk contexts this includes defining, quantitative linkages between the molecular initiating event (MIE) and subsequent key events...

Developmental Trajectories of Childhood Obesity and Risk Behaviors in Adolescence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, David Y. C.; Lanza, H. Isabella; Wright-Volel, Kynna; Anglin, M. Douglas

2013-01-01

Using group-based trajectory modeling, this study examined 5156 adolescents from the child sample of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to identify developmental trajectories of obesity from ages 6-18 and evaluate associations of such trajectories with risk behaviors and psychosocial health in adolescence. Four distinctive obesity…

NMR-based Metabolomics for Studying Toxicity, Compensation, and Recovery in Small Fish Exposed to EDCs

EPA Science Inventory

Determining the impact(s) on fish and other aquatic organisms of exposure to endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) is critical for determining the risks that these chemicals pose. However, to accurately evaluate these risks, beyond simply measuring a “before and after exposure” ...

Child Maltreatment Risk Assessments: An Evaluation Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Righthand, Sue; Kerr, Bruce; Drach, Kerry

This book is a professional practice manual designed to assist clinicians in conducting forensic risk assessment in child maltreatment cases. The authors present up-to-date research findings and provide practical, fact-based information on key issues. The book serves as a reference source on procedural issues, treatment options, and risk…

VERTICAL PROFILING OF VOCS IN GROUNDWATER AND SOIL VAPORS TO EVALUATE THE RISK OF VAPOR INTRUSION

EPA Science Inventory

The Draft EPA Subsurface Vapor Intrusion Guidance Document was established to address the incremental increases in exposures and risks from subsurface contaminants that may be intruding into indoor air@. The document utilizes attenuation factors based on indoor air/soil gas or i...

77 FR 9665 - Submission for OMB Emergency Review; Comment Request: A Multi-Center International Hospital-Based...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-17

... postulated risk factors for evaluation in this study are chemical exposures (i.e., organochlorines, trichloroethylene, and benzene) and genetic susceptibility. Other factors potentially related to lymphoma, such as... also be studied. Patterns of key risk factors, including range of exposures, prevalence of exposures...

Implementation and evaluation of a community-based medication reconciliation (CMR) system at the hospital-community interface of care.

PubMed

Bailey, Allan L; Moe, Grace; Moe, Jessica; Oland, Ryan

2009-01-01

The WestView community-based medication reconciliation (CMR) aims to decrease medication error risk. A clinical pharmacist visits patients' homes within 72 hours of hospital discharge and compares medications in discharge orders, family physicians' charts, community pharmacy profiles and in the home. Discrepancies are discussed and reconciled with the dispenser, hospital prescriber and follow-up care provider. The CMR demonstrates successful integration that is patient-centred and standardized, bridging the hospital-community interface and improving information flow and communication channels across a family-physician-led multi-disciplinary team. A concurrent research study will evaluate the impact of CMR on health services utilization and to develop a risk prediction model.

Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

Assessment of the disposal of radioactive petroleum industry waste in nonhazardous landfills using risk-based modeling.

PubMed

Smith, Karen P; Arnish, John J; Williams, Gustavious P; Blunt, Deborah L

2003-05-15

Certain petroleum production activities cause naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) to accumulate in concentrations above natural background levels, making safe and cost-effective management of such technologically enhanced NORM (TENORM) a key issue for the petroleum industry. As a result, both industry and regulators are interested in identifying cost-effective disposal alternatives that provide adequate protection of human health and the environment One such alternative, currently allowed in Michigan with restrictions, is the disposal of TENORM wastes in nonhazardous waste landfills. The disposal of petroleum industry wastes containing radium-226 (Ra-226) in nonhazardous landfills was modeled to evaluate the potential radiological doses and health risks to workers and the public. Multiple scenarios were considered in evaluating the potential risks associated with landfill operations and the future use of the property. The scenarios were defined, in part, to evaluate the Michigan policy; sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the impact of key parameters on potential risks. The results indicate that the disposal of petroleum industry TENORM wastes in nonhazardous landfills in accordance with the Michigan policy and existing landfill regulations presents a negligible risk to most of the potential receptors considered in this study.

24 CFR 35.1125 - Evaluation and hazard reduction before acquisition and development.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN... risk assessment for lead-based paint hazards shall be conducted in accordance with § 35.1320. (b) If...

Preoperative Screening.

PubMed

Marwell, Julianna G; Heflin, Mitchell T; McDonald, Shelley R

2018-02-01

Older adults undergoing elective surgical procedures suffer higher rates of morbidity and mortality than younger patients. A geriatric-focused preoperative evaluation can identify risk factors for complications and opportunities for health optimization and care coordination. Key components of a geriatric preoperative evaluation include (1) assessments of function, mobility, cognition, and mental health; (2) reviews of medical conditions and medications; and (3) discussion of risks, preferences, and goals of care. A geriatric-focused, team-based approach can improve surgical outcomes and patient experience. Published by Elsevier Inc.

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

PubMed

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

A Multifaceted School-based Intervention to Reduce Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in At-Risk Youth

PubMed Central

Grey, Margaret; Jaser, Sarah S.; Holl, Marita G.; Jefferson, Vanessa; Dziura, James; Northrup, Veronika

2009-01-01

Objective To evaluate the impact of a multifaceted, school-based intervention on inner city youth at high risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to determine whether the addition of coping skills training (CST) and health coaching improves outcomes. Method 198 students in New Haven, CT at risk for T2DM (BMI > 85th percentile and family history of diabetes) were randomized by school to an educational intervention with or without the addition of CST and health coaching. Students were enrolled from 2004–2007 and followed for 12 months. Results Students in both groups showed some improvement in anthropometric measures, lipids, and depressive symptoms over 12 months. BMI was not improved by the intervention. Students who received CST showed greater improvement on some indicators of metabolic risk than students who received education only. Conclusion A multifaceted, school-based intervention may hold promise for reducing metabolic risk in urban, minority youth. PMID:19643125

A risk management model for familial breast cancer: A new application using Fuzzy Cognitive Map method.

PubMed

Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I; Jayashree Subramanian; Karmegam, Akila; Papandrianos, Nikolaos

2015-11-01

Breast cancer is the most deadly disease affecting women and thus it is natural for women aged 40-49 years (who have a family history of breast cancer or other related cancers) to assess their personal risk for developing familial breast cancer (FBC). Besides, as each individual woman possesses different levels of risk of developing breast cancer depending on their family history, genetic predispositions and personal medical history, individualized care setting mechanism needs to be identified so that appropriate risk assessment, counseling, screening, and prevention options can be determined by the health care professionals. The presented work aims at developing a soft computing based medical decision support system using Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) that assists health care professionals in deciding the individualized care setting mechanisms based on the FBC risk level of the given women. The FCM based FBC risk management system uses NHL to learn causal weights from 40 patient records and achieves a 95% diagnostic accuracy. The results obtained from the proposed model are in concurrence with the comprehensive risk evaluation tool based on Tyrer-Cuzick model for 38/40 patient cases (95%). Besides, the proposed model identifies high risk women by calculating higher accuracy of prediction than the standard Gail and NSAPB models. The testing accuracy of the proposed model using 10-fold cross validation technique outperforms other standard machine learning based inference engines as well as previous FCM-based risk prediction methods for BC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Breast Cancer Screening in the Precision Medicine Era: Risk-Based Screening in a Population-Based Trial.

PubMed

Shieh, Yiwey; Eklund, Martin; Madlensky, Lisa; Sawyer, Sarah D; Thompson, Carlie K; Stover Fiscalini, Allison; Ziv, Elad; Van't Veer, Laura J; Esserman, Laura J; Tice, Jeffrey A

2017-01-01

Ongoing controversy over the optimal approach to breast cancer screening has led to discordant professional society recommendations, particularly in women age 40 to 49 years. One potential solution is risk-based screening, where decisions around the starting age, stopping age, frequency, and modality of screening are based on individual risk to maximize the early detection of aggressive cancers and minimize the harms of screening through optimal resource utilization. We present a novel approach to risk-based screening that integrates clinical risk factors, breast density, a polygenic risk score representing the cumulative effects of genetic variants, and sequencing for moderate- and high-penetrance germline mutations. We demonstrate how thresholds of absolute risk estimates generated by our prediction tools can be used to stratify women into different screening strategies (biennial mammography, annual mammography, annual mammography with adjunctive magnetic resonance imaging, defer screening at this time) while informing the starting age of screening for women age 40 to 49 years. Our risk thresholds and corresponding screening strategies are based on current evidence but need to be tested in clinical trials. The Women Informed to Screen Depending On Measures of risk (WISDOM) Study, a pragmatic, preference-tolerant randomized controlled trial of annual vs personalized screening, will study our proposed approach. WISDOM will evaluate the efficacy, safety, and acceptability of risk-based screening beginning in the fall of 2016. The adaptive design of this trial allows continued refinement of our risk thresholds as the trial progresses, and we discuss areas where we anticipate emerging evidence will impact our approach. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukutani, Y.

2017-12-01

Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response-surface and Monte Carlo simulation without conducting multiple tsunami numerical simulations.

[Diagnostic evaluation of the developmental level in children identified at risk of delay through the Child Development Evaluation Test].

PubMed

Rizzoli-Córdoba, Antonio; Campos-Maldonado, Martha Carmen; Vélez-Andrade, Víctor Hugo; Delgado-Ginebra, Ismael; Baqueiro-Hernández, César Iván; Villasís-Keever, Miguel Ángel; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia; Ojeda-Lara, Lucía; Davis-Martínez, Erika Berenice; O'Shea-Cuevas, Gabriel; Aceves-Villagrán, Daniel; Carrasco-Mendoza, Joaquín; Villagrán-Muñoz, Víctor Manuel; Halley-Castillo, Elizabeth; Sidonio-Aguayo, Beatriz; Palma-Tavera, Josuha Alexander; Muñoz-Hernández, Onofre

The Child Development Evaluation (or CDE Test) was developed in Mexico as a screening tool for child developmental problems. It yields three possible results: normal, slow development or risk of delay. The modified version was elaborated using the information obtained during the validation study but its properties according to the base population are not known. The objective of this work was to establish diagnostic confirmation of developmental delay in children 16- to 59-months of age previously identified as having risk of delay through the CDE Test in primary care facilities. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in one Mexican state. CDE test was administered to 11,455 children 16- to 59-months of age from December/2013 to March/2014. The eligible population represented the 6.2% of the children (n=714) who were identified at risk of delay through the CDE Test. For inclusion in the study, a block randomization stratified by sex and age group was performed. Each participant included in the study had a diagnostic evaluation using the Battelle Development Inventory, 2 nd edition. From the 355 participants included with risk of delay, 65.9% were male and 80.2% were from rural areas; 6.5% were false positives (Total Development Quotient ˃90) and 6.8% did not have any domain with delay (Domain Developmental Quotient <80). The proportion of delay for each domain was as follows: communication 82.5%; cognitive 80.8%; social-personal 33.8%; motor 55.5%; and adaptive 41.7%. There were significant differences in the percentages of delay both by age and by domain/subdomain evaluated. In 93.2% of the participants, developmental delay was corroborated in at least one domain evaluated. Copyright © 2015 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

[Child endangerment: a research update regarding etiology, consequences, diagnostics, and intervention].

PubMed

Kindler, Heinz

2009-01-01

In Germany child protection law is governed by the term "child endangerment". Based on a definition of that term recent research on child maltreatment is reviewed. Regarding etiology the need to go beyond risk factors and to consider risk mechanisms is highlighted. The discussion on the impact of child maltreatment focuses on the often underestimated effects of early neglect. After a review of progresses regarding the evaluation of maltreated children and the assessment of risk based on a systematic literature review suggestions for design of effective family interventions after abuse or neglect are made.

Perceived and actual risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in Korea: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Boo, Sunjoo; Froelicher, Erika S; Yun, Ju-Hui; Kim, Ye-Won; Jung, Ju-Yang; Suh, Chang-Hee

2016-10-01

The purposes of this study were to compare the perceived and actual 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to evaluate the influence of cardiovascular risk factors on perceived CVD risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Korea. Additionally, the attainment of CVD prevention guideline goals by 3 levels of CVD risk (low, moderate, and high) was presented.For this cross-sectional study, data were collected from 208 patients with RA. Actual CVD risk was estimated with the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and goal attainment was assessed based on the European League Against Rheumatism guidelines. Actual CVD risk and perceived risk were compared with cross-tabulation. Chi-square tests were used to evaluate differences in cardiovascular risk factors by perceived risk. Levels of goal attainment were presented in percentages.Among patients with RA, 13.9% were identified as being at high risk for CVD, whereas 39.9% were at moderate risk, and 46.2% were at low risk. The majority of those at high risk (96.6%) underestimated their risk for CVD. The use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medications and having a parental history of CVD significantly increased the likelihood that subjects with RA would perceive themselves as being at high risk for CVD. Diabetes, smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity did not affect perceived risk. A substantial proportion of the subjects with RA did not meet the prevention guideline goals.Patients with RA who are at increased risk of developing CVD must be managed as soon as possible to attain the guideline goals and, accordingly, lower their risk of future CVD.

Evaluation and recommendation of sensitivity analysis methods for application to Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation models.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Christopher Frey, H; Zheng, Junyu

2006-11-01

Sensitivity analyses of exposure or risk models can help identify the most significant factors to aid in risk management or to prioritize additional research to reduce uncertainty in the estimates. However, sensitivity analysis is challenged by non-linearity, interactions between inputs, and multiple days or time scales. Selected sensitivity analysis methods are evaluated with respect to their applicability to human exposure models with such features using a testbed. The testbed is a simplified version of a US Environmental Protection Agency's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model. The methods evaluated include the Pearson and Spearman correlation, sample and rank regression, analysis of variance, Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST), and Sobol's method. The first five methods are known as "sampling-based" techniques, wheras the latter two methods are known as "variance-based" techniques. The main objective of the test cases was to identify the main and total contributions of individual inputs to the output variance. Sobol's method and FAST directly quantified these measures of sensitivity. Results show that sensitivity of an input typically changed when evaluated under different time scales (e.g., daily versus monthly). All methods provided similar insights regarding less important inputs; however, Sobol's method and FAST provided more robust insights with respect to sensitivity of important inputs compared to the sampling-based techniques. Thus, the sampling-based methods can be used in a screening step to identify unimportant inputs, followed by application of more computationally intensive refined methods to a smaller set of inputs. The implications of time variation in sensitivity results for risk management are briefly discussed.

48 CFR 1352.215-75 - Evaluation criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... relative importance among the technical evaluation factors.] Based upon the results of the integrated... as the offeror's planned management of consultants and subcontractors, if applicable. Factor 2... likelihood that that offeror can successfully perform the contract requirements and the degree of the risk of...

Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

Community-centred eco-bio-social approach to control dengue vectors: an intervention study from Myanmar

PubMed Central

Wai, Khin Thet; Htun, Pe Than; Oo, Tin; Myint, Hla; Lin, Zaw; Kroeger, Axel; Sommerfeld, Johannes; Petzold, Max

2012-01-01

Objectives To build up and analyse the feasibility, process, and effectiveness of a partnership-driven ecosystem management intervention in reducing dengue vector breeding and constructing sustainable partnerships among multiple stakeholders. Methods A community-based intervention study was conducted from May 2009 to January 2010 in Yangon city. Six high-risk and six low-risk clusters were randomized and allocated as intervention and routine service areas, respectively. For each cluster, 100 households were covered. Bi-monthly entomological evaluations (i.e. larval and pupal surveys) and household acceptability surveys at the end of 6-month intervention period were conducted, supplemented by qualitative evaluations. Intervention description The strategies included eco-friendly multi-stakeholder partner groups (Thingaha) and ward-based volunteers, informed decision-making of householders, followed by integrated vector management approach. Findings Pupae per person index (PPI) decreased at the last evaluation by 5.7% (0.35–0.33) in high-risk clusters. But in low-risk clusters, PPI remarkably decreased by 63.6% (0.33–0.12). In routine service area, PPI also decreased due to availability of Temephos after Cyclone Nargis. As for total number of pupae in all containers, when compared to evaluation 1, there was a reduction of 18.6% in evaluation 2 and 44.1% in evaluation 3 in intervention area. However, in routine service area, more reduction was observed. All intervention tools were found as acceptable, being feasible to implement by multi-stakeholder partner groups. Conclusions The efficacy of community-controlled partnership-driven interventions was found to be superior to the vertical approach in terms of sustainability and community empowerment. PMID:23318238

Community-centred eco-bio-social approach to control dengue vectors: an intervention study from Myanmar.

PubMed

Wai, Khin Thet; Htun, Pe Than; Oo, Tin; Myint, Hla; Lin, Zaw; Kroeger, Axel; Sommerfeld, Johannes; Petzold, Max

2012-12-01

To build up and analyse the feasibility, process, and effectiveness of a partnership-driven ecosystem management intervention in reducing dengue vector breeding and constructing sustainable partnerships among multiple stakeholders. A community-based intervention study was conducted from May 2009 to January 2010 in Yangon city. Six high-risk and six low-risk clusters were randomized and allocated as intervention and routine service areas, respectively. For each cluster, 100 households were covered. Bi-monthly entomological evaluations (i.e. larval and pupal surveys) and household acceptability surveys at the end of 6-month intervention period were conducted, supplemented by qualitative evaluations. Intervention description: The strategies included eco-friendly multi-stakeholder partner groups (Thingaha) and ward-based volunteers, informed decision-making of householders, followed by integrated vector management approach. Pupae per person index (PPI) decreased at the last evaluation by 5·7% (0·35-0·33) in high-risk clusters. But in low-risk clusters, PPI remarkably decreased by 63·6% (0·33-0·12). In routine service area, PPI also decreased due to availability of Temephos after Cyclone Nargis. As for total number of pupae in all containers, when compared to evaluation 1, there was a reduction of 18·6% in evaluation 2 and 44·1% in evaluation 3 in intervention area. However, in routine service area, more reduction was observed. All intervention tools were found as acceptable, being feasible to implement by multi-stakeholder partner groups. The efficacy of community-controlled partnership-driven interventions was found to be superior to the vertical approach in terms of sustainability and community empowerment.

Using Computer Simulations for Investigating a Sex Education Intervention: An Exploratory Study

PubMed Central

Bullock, Seth; Graham, Cynthia A; Ingham, Roger

2017-01-01

Background Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are ongoing concerns. The best method for preventing the transmission of these infections is the correct and consistent use of condoms. Few studies have explored the use of games in interventions for increasing condom use by challenging the false sense of security associated with judging the presence of an STI based on attractiveness. Objectives The primary purpose of this study was to explore the potential use of computer simulation as a serious game for sex education. Specific aims were to (1) study the influence of a newly designed serious game on self-rated confidence for assessing STI risk and (2) examine whether this varied by gender, age, and scores on sexuality-related personality trait measures. Methods This paper undertook a Web-based questionnaire study employing between and within subject analyses. A Web-based platform hosted in the United Kingdom was used to deliver male and female stimuli (facial photographs) and collect data. A convenience sample group of 66 participants (64%, 42/66) male, mean age 22.5 years) completed the Term on the Tides, a computer simulation developed for this study. Participants also completed questionnaires on demographics, sexual preferences, sexual risk evaluations, the Sexual Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS), and the Sexual Inhibition Subscale 2 (SIS2) of the Sexual Inhibition/Sexual Excitation Scales-Short Form (SIS/SES - SF). Results The overall confidence of participants to evaluate sexual risks reduced after playing the game (P<.005). Age and personality trait measures did not predict the change in confidence of evaluating risk. Women demonstrated larger shifts in confidence than did men (P=.03). Conclusions This study extends the literature by investigating the potential of computer simulations as a serious game for sex education. Engaging in the Term on the Tides game had an impact on participants’ confidence in evaluating sexual risks. PMID:28468747

Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

2017-01-01

Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

Evaluating an implementation strategy in cardiovascular prevention to improve prescribing of statins in Germany: an intention to treat analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The prescription of statins is an evidence-based treatment to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with elevated cardiovascular risk or with a cardiovascular disorder (CVD). In spite of this, many of these patients do not receive statins. Methods We evaluated the impact of a brief educational intervention in cardiovascular prevention in primary care physicians’ prescribing behaviour regarding statins beyond their participation in a randomised controlled trial (RCT). For this, prescribing data of all patients > 35 years who were counselled before and after the study period were analysed (each n > 75000). Outcome measure was prescription of Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors (statins) corresponding to patients’ overall risk for CVD. Appropriateness of prescribing was examined according to different risk groups based on the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification System (ATC codes). Results There was no consistent association between group allocation and statin prescription controlling for risk status in each risk group before and after study participation. However, we found a change to more significant drug configurations predicting the prescription of statins in the intervention group, which can be regarded as a small intervention effect. Conclusion Our results suggest that an active implementation of a brief evidence-based educational intervention does not lead to prescription modifications in everyday practice. Physician’s prescribing behaviour is affected by an established health care system, which is not easy to change. Trial registration ISRCTN71348772 PMID:23819600

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

Development of a Safety Monitoring and Assurance System for chilled food products.

PubMed

Koutsoumanis, K; Taoukis, P S; Nychas, G J E

2005-04-15

The principles of a novel chill chain management policy, coded Safety Monitoring and Assurance System (SMAS) for the optimisation of the distribution of chilled food products within the chill chain are developed. In this system, a new approach based on actual risk evaluation at important points of the chill chain is used in order to promote products to the next stage of distribution. This evaluation based on product's time-temperature history, variation in product's characteristics (e.g. a(w), pH, etc.), and the use of predictive models for the growth of food pathogens, allows to give priority to products in such a way that risk at consumption time is minimized. The effectiveness of SMAS was evaluated against the First In First Out (FIFO) approach, the current method for food distribution, in a case study on the risk of listeriosis of cooked ham using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Furthermore, the two approaches were compared for their effect on the quality of the products in terms of remaining shelf life at the time of consumption. The results showed that following the SMAS approach the risk of listerisosis is significantly lower while the spoiled products at the time of consumption are significantly reduced compared to FIFO approach.

[Economic evaluation and rationale for human health risk management decisions].

PubMed

Fokin, S G; Bobkova, T E

2011-01-01

The priority task of human health maintenance and improvement is risk management using the new economic concepts based on the assessment of potential and real human risks from exposure to poor environmental factors and on the estimation of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness ratios. The application of economic tools to manage a human risk makes it possible to assess various measures both as a whole and their individual priority areas, to rank different scenarios in terms of their effectiveness, to estimate costs per unit of risk reduction and benefit increase (damage decrease).

The differential associations of preexisting conditions with trauma-related outcomes in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Calvo, Richard Yee; Lindsay, Suzanne P; Edland, Steven D; Macera, Caroline A; Wingard, Deborah L; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Sise, Michael J

2016-03-01

Pre-existing chronic conditions (PECs) pose a unique problem for the care of aging trauma populations. However, the relationships between specific conditions and outcomes after injury are relatively unknown. Evaluation of trauma patients is further complicated by their discharge to care facilities, where mortality risk remains high. Traditional approaches for evaluating in-hospital mortality do not account for the discharge of at-risk patients, which constitutes a competing risk event to death. The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between 40 PECs and two clinical outcomes in the context of competing risks among older trauma patients. This retrospective study evaluated blunt-injured patients aged 55 years and older admitted to a level I trauma centre in 2006-2012. Outcomes were hospital length of stay (HLOS) and in-hospital mortality. Survivors were classified as discharges home or discharges to care facilities. Competing risks regression was used to evaluate each PEC with in-hospital mortality, accounting for discharges to care facilities as competing events. Competing risk estimates were compared to Cox model estimates, for which all survivors to discharge were non-events. Analyses were stratified using injury-based mortality risk at a 50% cutpoint (high versus low). Among 4653 patients, 176 died in-hospital, 3059 were discharged home, and 1418 were discharged to a care facility. Most patients (98%) were classified with a low mortality risk. Only haemophilia and coagulopathy were consistently associated with longer HLOS. In the low-risk subgroup, in-hospital mortality was most strongly associated with liver diseases, haemophilia, and coagulopathy. In the high-risk group, Parkinson's disease, depression, and cancers showed the strongest associations. Accounting for the competing event altered estimates for 12 of 19 significant conditions. Excess mortality among patients expected to survive their injuries may be attributable to complications resulting from PECs. Discharges to care facilities constitute a bias in the evaluation of in-hospital mortality and should be considered for the accurate calculation of risk. In conjunction with injury measures, consideration of PECs provides physicians with a foundation to plan clinical decisions in older trauma patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

2011-01-01

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

The moderating effect of gender on the relationship between coping and suicide risk in a Portuguese community sample of adults.

PubMed

Campos, Rui C; Holden, Ronald R; Costa, Fátima; Oliveira, Ana Rita; Abreu, Marta; Fresca, Natália

2017-02-01

Background and aims(s): The study evaluated the contribution of coping strategies, based on the Toulousiane conceptualization of coping, to the prediction of suicide risk and tested the moderating effect of gender, controlling for depressive symptoms. A two-time data collection design was used. A community sample of 195 adults (91 men and 104 women) ranging in age from 19 to 65 years and living in several Portuguese regions, mostly in Alentejo, participated in this research. Gender, depressive symptoms, control, and withdrawal and conversion significantly predicted suicide risk and gender interacted with control, withdrawal and conversion, and social distraction in the prediction of suicide risk. Coping predicted suicide risk only for women. Results have important implications for assessment and intervention with suicide at-risk individuals. In particular,the evaluation and development of coping skills is indicated as a goal for therapists having suicide at-risk women as clients.

Hazards, risks and safety of diagnostic ultrasound.

PubMed

Duck, Francis A

2008-12-01

The safety of exposure to diagnostic ultrasound is evaluated using a structured approach to risk assessment, based on the acoustic output of present ultrasound scanners. Thermal hazard is described, the magnitude and probability of temperature rise is reviewed, and the severity of harm from any outcome is reviewed. Similar assessments are made separately for acoustic cavitation and gas-body effects, which have previously been considered together. Finally, radiation pressure is considered in a similar manner. In each case, means to minimize the risk are suggested where appropriate. The highest risks are associated with the use of gas-bubble contrast agents. It is concluded that there is a medium risk associated with trans-cranial Doppler use, and that this use of ultrasound deserves more detailed safety review. The risks associated with the current practice of obstetric ultrasound are low. Whilst the severity of radiation pressure as a hazard is low, it is always present. Little is known about any associated cell responses and so the associated risk cannot be evaluated.

An attempt to implement tools to support examination of community-based activities for disaster mitigation: A case study in Toyokawa city, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karashima, Kazuki; Ohgai, Akira

2017-10-01

Japan is a country with a high risk for earthquake disasters. The measures used to promote structures' seismic safety, such as reconstruction, widening narrow roads, and the response capacities to deal with huge earthquakes are important. Techniques to support the examination of countermeasures to huge earthquakes are required. To improve this capability, the authors developed tools to: (1) evaluate fire-spread risk, (2) evaluate the difficulty of emergency response and evacuation, and (3) evaluate capacities of neighborhood communities for disaster mitigation. The usefulness of the tools was clarified by the demonstration experiments of previous studies. The next step was implementation of the tools in community-based activities for disaster mitigation. This study aimed to clarify the usability and problems of implementing the tools in community-based activities. The tools were used at several workshops in actual community-based activities for disaster mitigation for one year. After the last workshop, interviews and a questionnaire were conducted on municipal staff and consultant staff. The results found that the tools visually showed the fire-spread risk, the difficulty of evacuation under current conditions and after improvements, and the effects of each disaster mitigation activity. The users could easily explore the draft plans to promote seismic safety of urban structures and response capabilities. The tools were positively incorporated into some community-based activities for disaster mitigation. Thus, the tools have the possibility of successful use at continuing community-based activities and the possibility of implementing the tools will be promoted.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

PubMed

Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

2013-05-01

There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

2016-06-01

A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325.

Association between risk factors and detection of cutaneous melanoma in the setting of a population-based skin cancer screening.

PubMed

Hübner, Joachim; Waldmann, Annika; Eisemann, Nora; Noftz, Maria; Geller, Alan C; Weinstock, Martin A; Volkmer, Beate; Greinert, Rüdiger; Breitbart, Eckhard W; Katalinic, Alexander

2017-07-07

Early detection is considered to improve the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma. The value of population-based screening for melanoma, however, is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of established risk factors in the setting of a population-based screening and to provide empirical evidence for potential risk stratifications. We reanalyzed data (including age, sex, risk factors, and screening results) of 354 635 participants in the Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany project conducted in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein (2003-2004). In multivariable analysis, atypical nevi [odds ratio (OR): 17.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 14.4-20.1], personal history of melanoma (OR: 5.3; 95% CI: 3.6-7.6), and multiple (≥40) common nevi (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1-1.6) were associated with an increased risk of melanoma detection. Family history and congenital nevi were not significantly associated with melanoma detection in the Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany population. The effects of several risk-adapted screening strategies were evaluated. Hypothesizing a screening of individuals aged more than or equal to 35 years, irrespective of risk factors (age approach), the number needed to screen is 559 (95% CI: 514-612), whereas a screening of adults (aged ≥20) with at least one risk factor (risk approach) leads to an number needed to screen of 178 (95% CI: 163-196). Converted into one screen-detected melanoma, the number of missed melanomas is 0.15 (95% CI: 0.12-0.18) with the age approach and 0.22 (95% CI: 0.19-0.26) with the risk approach. The results indicate that focusing on individuals at high risk for melanoma may improve the cost-effectiveness and the benefit-to-harm balance of melanoma screening programs.

An Evaluation of Performance-Based Tests Designed to Improve Naval Aviation Selection.

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

Qualification Test AQT/FAR 8z Flight Aptitude Rating 3 Complex Visual CVT Information Processing 3 Risk RISK 3 Absolute Difference ADHT & Horizontal...01329* .01852 1077 6 CVT .03752* .05064 557 3 ADHT .03432* .03289 499 8 RISK .03369* .05028 337 2 MB .01814 .02479 544 5 PMT/DLT .00987 .01037 641 7 *p...to differences in age, sex, accession source, college major, prior flight hours, or intelligence. From Table 2 we see that the CVT, ADHT , and the RISK

Safety assessment, detection and traceability, and societal aspects of genetically modified foods. European Network on Safety Assessment of Genetically Modified Food Crops (ENTRANSFOOD). Concluding remarks.

PubMed

Kuiper, H A; König, A; Kleter, G A; Hammes, W P; Knudsen, I

2004-07-01

The most important results from the EU-sponsored ENTRANSFOOD Thematic Network project are reviewed, including the design of a detailed step-wise procedure for the risk assessment of foods derived from genetically modified crops based on the latest scientific developments, evaluation of topical risk assessment issues, and the formulation of proposals for improved risk management and public involvement in the risk analysis process. Copyright 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

Application of the BRAFO tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on heat processing contaminants.

PubMed

Schütte, Katrin; Boeing, Heiner; Hart, Andy; Heeschen, Walther; Reimerdes, Ernst H; Santare, Dace; Skog, Kerstin; Chiodini, Alessandro

2012-11-01

The aim of the European Funded Project BRAFO (benefit-risk analysis of foods) project was to develop a framework that allows quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits of foods based on a common scale of measurement. This publication describes the application of the BRAFO methodology to three different case studies: the formation of acrylamide in potato and cereal based products, the formation of benzo(a)pyrene through smoking and grilling of meat and fish and the heat-treatment of milk. Reference, alternative scenario and target population represented the basic structure to test the tiers of the framework. Various intervention methods intended to reduce acrylamide in potato and cereal products were evaluated against the historical production methods. In conclusion the benefits of the acrylamide-reducing measures were considered prevailing. For benzo(a)pyrene, three illustrated alternative scenarios were evaluated against the most common smoking practice. The alternative scenarios were assessed as delivering benefits, introducing only minimal potential risks. Similar considerations were made for heat treatment of milk where the comparison of the microbiological effects of heat treatment, physico-chemical changes of milk constituents with positive and negative health effects was assessed. In general, based on data available, benefits of the heat treatment were outweighing any risks. Copyright © 2012 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Interactive decision support in hepatic surgery

PubMed Central

Dugas, Martin; Schauer, Rolf; Volk, Andreas; Rau, Horst

2002-01-01

Background Hepatic surgery is characterized by complicated operations with a significant peri- and postoperative risk for the patient. We developed a web-based, high-granular research database for comprehensive documentation of all relevant variables to evaluate new surgical techniques. Methods To integrate this research system into the clinical setting, we designed an interactive decision support component. The objective is to provide relevant information for the surgeon and the patient to assess preoperatively the risk of a specific surgical procedure. Based on five established predictors of patient outcomes, the risk assessment tool searches for similar cases in the database and aggregates the information to estimate the risk for an individual patient. Results The physician can verify the analysis and exclude manually non-matching cases according to his expertise. The analysis is visualized by means of a Kaplan-Meier plot. To evaluate the decision support component we analyzed data on 165 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (period 1996–2000). The similarity search provides a two-peak distribution indicating there are groups of similar patients and singular cases which are quite different to the average. The results of the risk estimation are consistent with the observed survival data, but must be interpreted with caution because of the limited number of matching reference cases. Conclusion Critical issues for the decision support system are clinical integration, a transparent and reliable knowledge base and user feedback. PMID:12003639

Effects of a Community-Based HIV Risk Reduction Intervention Among HIV-Positive Individuals: Results of a Quasi-Experimental Study in Nepal.

PubMed

Poudel, Krishna C; Buchanan, David R; Poudel-Tandukar, Kalpana

2015-06-01

We evaluated the efficacy of a sexual risk reduction intervention utilizing protection motivation and social cognitive theories to address knowledge, threat and coping appraisals, and condom use intentions among HIV-positive individuals in Nepal. Using a quasi-experimental research design, we assigned 277 participants to intervention (n=146) and control (n=131) groups. The intervention group received six sessions on sexual risk reduction strategies and the control group six sessions on medication adherence, smoking, and mental health. Data were collected at baseline and immediately after the intervention. Results indicate that the sexual risk reduction intervention produced a significant increase in HIV transmission knowledge, perceived threat and coping appraisals, and intentions to use condoms with regular, HIV-positive, and HIV-negative partners. The positive effects of the intervention remained significant after adjusting for baseline scores and other potential confounders. In conclusion, our theory-based sexual risk reduction intervention was effective in improving HIV transmission knowledge, perceived threat and coping appraisals, and condom use intentions. Further studies are needed to evaluate the long-term efficacy of the intervention in increasing protection motivation and maintaining preventive behaviors.

An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naime, Andre, E-mail: andre.naime.ibama@gmail.com

The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes andmore » outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.« less

User Perceptions and Reactions to an Online Cancer Risk Assessment Tool: a Process Evaluation of Cancer Risk Check.

PubMed

Hovick, Shelly R; Bevers, Therese B; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Kim, Stephanie; Dailey, Phokeng M; Jones, Lovell A; Peterson, Susan K

2017-03-01

Online cancer risk assessment tools, which provide personalized cancer information and recommendations based on personal data input by users, are a promising cancer education approach; however, few tools have been evaluated. A randomized controlled study was conducted to compare user impressions of one tool, Cancer Risk Check (CRC), to non-personalized educational information delivered online as series of self-advancing slides (the control). CRC users (N = 1452) rated the tool to be as interesting as the control (p > .05), but users were more likely to report that the information was difficult to understand and not applicable to them (p < .05). Information seeking and sharing also were lower among CRC users; thus, although impressions of CRC were favorable, it was not shown to be superior to existing approaches. We hypothesized CRC was less effective because it contained few visual and graphical elements; therefore, CRC was compared to a text-based control (online PDF file) post hoc. CRC users rated the information to be more interesting, less difficult to understand, and better able to hold their attention (p < .05). Post hoc results suggest the visual presentation of risk is critical to tool success.

Performance Measures in Neurosurgical Patient Care: Differing Applications of Patient Safety Indicators.

PubMed

Moghavem, Nuriel; McDonald, Kathryn; Ratliff, John K; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina

2016-04-01

Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are administratively coded identifiers of potentially preventable adverse events. These indicators are used for multiple purposes, including benchmarking and quality improvement efforts. Baseline PSI evaluation in high-risk surgeries is fundamental to both purposes. Determine PSI rates and their impact on other outcomes in patients undergoing cranial neurosurgery compared with other surgeries. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) PSI software was used to flag adverse events and determine risk-adjusted rates (RAR). Regression models were built to assess the association between PSIs and important patient outcomes. We identified cranial neurosurgeries based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes in California, Florida, New York, Arkansas, and Mississippi State Inpatient Databases, AHRQ, 2010-2011. PSI development, 30-day all-cause readmission, length of stay, hospital costs, and inpatient mortality. A total of 48,424 neurosurgical patients were identified. Procedure indication was strongly associated with PSI development. The neurosurgical population had significantly higher RAR of most PSIs evaluated compared with other surgical patients. Development of a PSI was strongly associated with increased length of stay and hospital cost and, in certain PSIs, increased inpatient mortality and 30-day readmission. In this population-based study, certain accountability measures proposed for use as value-based payment modifiers show higher RAR in neurosurgery patients compared with other surgical patients and were subsequently associated with poor outcomes. Our results indicate that for quality improvement efforts, the current AHRQ risk-adjustment models should be viewed in clinically meaningful stratified subgroups: for profiling and pay-for-performance applications, additional factors should be included in the risk-adjustment models. Further evaluation of PSIs in additional high-risk surgeries is needed to better inform the use of these metrics.

Analysis of indoor air pollutants checklist using environmetric technique for health risk assessment of sick building complaint in nonindustrial workplace

PubMed Central

Syazwan, AI; Rafee, B Mohd; Juahir, Hafizan; Azman, AZF; Nizar, AM; Izwyn, Z; Syahidatussyakirah, K; Muhaimin, AA; Yunos, MA Syafiq; Anita, AR; Hanafiah, J Muhamad; Shaharuddin, MS; Ibthisham, A Mohd; Hasmadi, I Mohd; Azhar, MN Mohamad; Azizan, HS; Zulfadhli, I; Othman, J; Rozalini, M; Kamarul, FT

2012-01-01

Purpose To analyze and characterize a multidisciplinary, integrated indoor air quality checklist for evaluating the health risk of building occupants in a nonindustrial workplace setting. Design A cross-sectional study based on a participatory occupational health program conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (Malaysia) and Universiti Putra Malaysia. Method A modified version of the indoor environmental checklist published by the Department of Occupational Health and Safety, based on the literature and discussion with occupational health and safety professionals, was used in the evaluation process. Summated scores were given according to the cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the characterization of risk. Environmetric techniques was used to classify the risk of variables in the checklist. Identification of the possible source of item pollutants was also evaluated from a semiquantitative approach. Result Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis resulted in the grouping of factorial components into three clusters (high complaint, moderate-high complaint, moderate complaint), which were further analyzed by discriminant analysis. From this, 15 major variables that influence indoor air quality were determined. Principal component analysis of each cluster revealed that the main factors influencing the high complaint group were fungal-related problems, chemical indoor dispersion, detergent, renovation, thermal comfort, and location of fresh air intake. The moderate-high complaint group showed significant high loading on ventilation, air filters, and smoking-related activities. The moderate complaint group showed high loading on dampness, odor, and thermal comfort. Conclusion This semiquantitative assessment, which graded risk from low to high based on the intensity of the problem, shows promising and reliable results. It should be used as an important tool in the preliminary assessment of indoor air quality and as a categorizing method for further IAQ investigations and complaints procedures. PMID:23055779

Analysis of indoor air pollutants checklist using environmetric technique for health risk assessment of sick building complaint in nonindustrial workplace.

PubMed

Syazwan, Ai; Rafee, B Mohd; Juahir, Hafizan; Azman, Azf; Nizar, Am; Izwyn, Z; Syahidatussyakirah, K; Muhaimin, Aa; Yunos, Ma Syafiq; Anita, Ar; Hanafiah, J Muhamad; Shaharuddin, Ms; Ibthisham, A Mohd; Hasmadi, I Mohd; Azhar, Mn Mohamad; Azizan, Hs; Zulfadhli, I; Othman, J; Rozalini, M; Kamarul, Ft

2012-01-01

To analyze and characterize a multidisciplinary, integrated indoor air quality checklist for evaluating the health risk of building occupants in a nonindustrial workplace setting. A cross-sectional study based on a participatory occupational health program conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (Malaysia) and Universiti Putra Malaysia. A modified version of the indoor environmental checklist published by the Department of Occupational Health and Safety, based on the literature and discussion with occupational health and safety professionals, was used in the evaluation process. Summated scores were given according to the cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the characterization of risk. Environmetric techniques was used to classify the risk of variables in the checklist. Identification of the possible source of item pollutants was also evaluated from a semiquantitative approach. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis resulted in the grouping of factorial components into three clusters (high complaint, moderate-high complaint, moderate complaint), which were further analyzed by discriminant analysis. From this, 15 major variables that influence indoor air quality were determined. Principal component analysis of each cluster revealed that the main factors influencing the high complaint group were fungal-related problems, chemical indoor dispersion, detergent, renovation, thermal comfort, and location of fresh air intake. The moderate-high complaint group showed significant high loading on ventilation, air filters, and smoking-related activities. The moderate complaint group showed high loading on dampness, odor, and thermal comfort. This semiquantitative assessment, which graded risk from low to high based on the intensity of the problem, shows promising and reliable results. It should be used as an important tool in the preliminary assessment of indoor air quality and as a categorizing method for further IAQ investigations and complaints procedures.

Higher levels of physical fitness are associated with a reduced risk of suffering sarcopenic obesity and better perceived health among the elderly: the EXERNET multi-center study.

PubMed

Pedrero-Chamizo, R; Gómez-Cabello, A; Meléndez, A; Vila-Maldonado, S; Espino, L; Gusi, N; Villa, G; Casajús, J A; González-Gross, M; Ara, I

2015-02-01

To evaluate the associations between physical fitness levels, health related quality of life (HRQoL) and sarcopenic obesity (SO) and to analyze the usefulness of several physical fitness tests as a screening tool for detecting elderly people with an increased risk of suffering SO. Cross-sectional analysis of a population-based sample. Non-institutionalized Spanish elderly participating in the EXERNET multi-centre study. 2747 elderly subjects aged 65 and older. Body weight, height and body mass index were evaluated in each subject. Body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance. Four SO groups were created based on percentage of body fat and relative muscle mass; 1) normal group, 2) sarcopenic group, 3) obesity group and 4) SO group. Physical fitness was evaluated using 8 tests (balance, lower and upper body strength, lower and upper body flexibility, agility, walking speed and aerobic capacity). Three tertiles were created for each test based on the calculated scores. HRQoL was assessed using the EuroQol visual analogue scale. Participants with SO showed lower physical fitness levels compared with normal subjects. Better balance, agility, and aerobic capacity were associated to a lower risk of suffering SO in the fittest men (odds ratio < 0.30). In women, better balance, walking speed, and aerobic capacity were associated to a lower risk of suffering SO in the fittest women (odds ratio < 0.21) Superior perceived health was associated with better physical fitness performance. Higher levels of physical fitness were associated with a reduced risk of suffering SO and better perceived health among elderly. SO elderly people have lower physical functional levels than healthy counterparts.

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards

PubMed Central

Rooney, Andrew A.; Cooper, Glinda S.; Jahnke, Gloria D.; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L.; Boyles, Abee L.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Schünemann, Holger J.; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Lunn, Ruth M.

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or “risk of bias” — the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program’s (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or “domains” for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. PMID:26857180

Strategies for Worksite Health Interventions to Employees with Elevated Risk of Chronic Diseases.

PubMed

Meng, Lu; Wolff, Marilyn B; Mattick, Kelly A; DeJoy, David M; Wilson, Mark G; Smith, Matthew Lee

2017-06-01

Chronic disease rates have become more prevalent in the modern American workforce, which has negative implications for workplace productivity and healthcare costs. Offering workplace health interventions is recognized as an effective strategy to reduce chronic disease progression, absenteeism, and healthcare costs as well as improve population health. This review documents intervention and evaluation strategies used for health promotion programs delivered in workplaces. Using predetermined search terms in five online databases, we identified 1,131 published items from 1995 to 2014. Of these items, 27 peer-reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria; reporting data from completed United States-based workplace interventions that recruited at-risk employees based on their disease or disease-related risk factors. A content rubric was developed and used to catalogue these 27 published field studies. Selected workplace interventions targeted obesity ( n   =  13), cardiovascular diseases ( n   =  8), and diabetes ( n   =  6). Intervention strategies included instructional education/counseling ( n   =  20), workplace environmental change ( n   =  6), physical activity ( n   =  10), use of technology ( n   =  10), and incentives ( n   =  13). Self-reported data ( n   =  21), anthropometric measurements ( n   =  17), and laboratory tests ( n   =  14) were used most often in studies with outcome evaluation. This is the first literature review to focus on interventions for employees with elevated risk for chronic diseases. The review has the potential to inform future workplace health interventions by presenting strategies related to implementation and evaluation strategies in workplace settings. These strategies can help determine optimal worksite health programs based on the unique characteristics of work settings and the health risk factors of their employee populations.

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards.

PubMed

Rooney, Andrew A; Cooper, Glinda S; Jahnke, Gloria D; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L; Boyles, Abee L; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M; Kraft, Andrew D; Schünemann, Holger J; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D; Thayer, Kristina A; Lunn, Ruth M

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or "risk of bias" - the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program's (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or "domains" for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

International NMR-based Environmental Metabolomics Intercomparison Exercise

EPA Science Inventory

Several fundamental requirements must be met so that NMR-based metabolomics and the related technique of metabonomics can be formally adopted into environmental monitoring and chemical risk assessment. Here we report an intercomparison exercise which has evaluated the effectivene...

Evaluation of a School-Based Train-the-Trainer Intervention Program to Teach First Aid and Risk Reduction among High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carruth, Ann K.; Pryor, Susan; Cormier, Cathy; Bateman, Aaron; Matzke, Brenda; Gilmore, Karen

2010-01-01

Background: Farming is a hazardous occupation posing health risks from agricultural exposures for the farm owner and family members. First Aid for Rural Medical Emergencies (F.A.R.M.E.) was developed to support a train-the-trainer (TTT) program to prepare high school students to teach first aid skills and risk reduction through peer interaction.…

Comprehensive Evaluation and Implementation of Improvement Actions in Butcher Shops

PubMed Central

Leotta, Gerardo A.; Brusa, Victoria; Galli, Lucía; Adriani, Cristian; Linares, Luciano; Etcheverría, Analía; Sanz, Marcelo; Sucari, Adriana; Peral García, Pilar; Signorini, Marcelo

2016-01-01

Foodborne pathogens can cause acute and chronic diseases and produce a wide range of symptoms. Since the consumption of ground beef is a risk factor for infections with some bacterial pathogens, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of butcher shops, implemented improvement actions for both butcher shops and consumers, and verified the impact of those actions implemented. A comprehensive evaluation was made and risk was quantified on a 1–100 scale as high-risk (1–40), moderate-risk (41–70) or low-risk (71–100). A total of 172 raw ground beef and 672 environmental samples were collected from 86 butcher shops during the evaluation (2010–2011) and verification (2013) stages of the study. Ground beef samples were analyzed for mesophilic aerobic organisms, Escherichia coli and coagulase-positive Staphylococcus aureus enumeration. Salmonella spp., E. coli O157:H7, non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC), and Listeria monocytogenes were detected and isolated from all samples. Risk quantification resulted in 43 (50.0%) high-risk, 34 (39.5%) moderate-risk, and nine (10.5%) low-risk butcher shops. Training sessions for 498 handlers and 4,506 consumers were held. Re-evaluation by risk quantification and microbiological analyses resulted in 19 (22.1%) high-risk, 42 (48.8%) moderate-risk and 25 (29.1%) low-risk butcher shops. The count of indicator microorganisms decreased with respect to the 2010–2011 period. After the implementation of improvement actions, the presence of L. monocytogenes, E. coli O157:H7 and stx genes in ground beef decreased. Salmonella spp. was isolated from 10 (11.6%) ground beef samples, without detecting statistically significant differences between both study periods (evaluation and verification). The percentage of pathogens in environmental samples was reduced in the verification period (Salmonella spp., 1.5%; L. monocytogenes, 10.7%; E. coli O157:H7, 0.6%; non-O157 STEC, 6.8%). Risk quantification was useful to identify those relevant facts in butcher shops. The reduction of contamination in ground beef and the environment was possible after training handlers based on the problems identified in their own butcher shops. Our results confirm the feasibility of implementing a comprehensive risk management program in butcher shops, and the importance of information campaigns targeting consumers. Further collaborative efforts would be necessary to improve foodstuffs safety at retail level and at home. PMID:27618439

Comprehensive Evaluation and Implementation of Improvement Actions in Butcher Shops.

PubMed

Leotta, Gerardo A; Brusa, Victoria; Galli, Lucía; Adriani, Cristian; Linares, Luciano; Etcheverría, Analía; Sanz, Marcelo; Sucari, Adriana; Peral García, Pilar; Signorini, Marcelo

2016-01-01

Foodborne pathogens can cause acute and chronic diseases and produce a wide range of symptoms. Since the consumption of ground beef is a risk factor for infections with some bacterial pathogens, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of butcher shops, implemented improvement actions for both butcher shops and consumers, and verified the impact of those actions implemented. A comprehensive evaluation was made and risk was quantified on a 1-100 scale as high-risk (1-40), moderate-risk (41-70) or low-risk (71-100). A total of 172 raw ground beef and 672 environmental samples were collected from 86 butcher shops during the evaluation (2010-2011) and verification (2013) stages of the study. Ground beef samples were analyzed for mesophilic aerobic organisms, Escherichia coli and coagulase-positive Staphylococcus aureus enumeration. Salmonella spp., E. coli O157:H7, non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC), and Listeria monocytogenes were detected and isolated from all samples. Risk quantification resulted in 43 (50.0%) high-risk, 34 (39.5%) moderate-risk, and nine (10.5%) low-risk butcher shops. Training sessions for 498 handlers and 4,506 consumers were held. Re-evaluation by risk quantification and microbiological analyses resulted in 19 (22.1%) high-risk, 42 (48.8%) moderate-risk and 25 (29.1%) low-risk butcher shops. The count of indicator microorganisms decreased with respect to the 2010-2011 period. After the implementation of improvement actions, the presence of L. monocytogenes, E. coli O157:H7 and stx genes in ground beef decreased. Salmonella spp. was isolated from 10 (11.6%) ground beef samples, without detecting statistically significant differences between both study periods (evaluation and verification). The percentage of pathogens in environmental samples was reduced in the verification period (Salmonella spp., 1.5%; L. monocytogenes, 10.7%; E. coli O157:H7, 0.6%; non-O157 STEC, 6.8%). Risk quantification was useful to identify those relevant facts in butcher shops. The reduction of contamination in ground beef and the environment was possible after training handlers based on the problems identified in their own butcher shops. Our results confirm the feasibility of implementing a comprehensive risk management program in butcher shops, and the importance of information campaigns targeting consumers. Further collaborative efforts would be necessary to improve foodstuffs safety at retail level and at home.

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination

PubMed Central

Burgess, Andrew

2017-01-01

Objectives Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. Methods This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Results Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Conclusion Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations. PMID:29104608

An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

PubMed

Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

2016-01-01

The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Prognostic Indicator for Patients Hospitalized with Heart Failure.

PubMed

Snow, Richard; Vogel, Karen; Vanderhoff, Bruce; Kelch, Benjamin P; Ferris, Frank D

2016-12-01

Current methods for identifying patients at risk of dying within six months suffer from clinician biases resulting in underestimation of this risk. As a result, patients who are potentially eligible for hospice and palliative care services frequently do not benefit from these services until they are very close to the end of their lives. To develop a prospective prognostic indicator based on actual survival within Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) claims data that identifies patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) who are at risk of six-month mortality. CMS claims data from January 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 were reviewed to find the first hospitalization for CHF patients with episode of care diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) 291, 292, and 293. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to determine the associations between demographic and clinical factors and six-month mortality. The resulting model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration. The resulting prospective prognostic model demonstrated fair discrimination with an ROC of 0.71 and good calibration with a Hosmer-Lemshow statistic of 0.98. Across all DRGs, 5% of discharged patients had a six-month mortality risk of greater than 50%. This prospective approach appears to provide a method to identify patients with CHF who would potentially benefit from a clinical evaluation for referral to hospice care or for a palliative care consult due to high predicted risk of dying within 180 days after discharge from a hospital. This approach can provide a model to match at-risk patients with evidenced-based care in a more consistent manner. This method of identifying patients at risk needs further prospective evaluation to see if it has value for clinicians, increases referrals to hospice and palliative care services, and benefits patients and families.

Active animal health surveillance in European Union Member States: gaps and opportunities.

PubMed

Bisdorff, B; Schauer, B; Taylor, N; Rodríguez-Prieto, V; Comin, A; Brouwer, A; Dórea, F; Drewe, J; Hoinville, L; Lindberg, A; Martinez Avilés, M; Martínez-López, B; Peyre, M; Pinto Ferreira, J; Rushton, J; VAN Schaik, G; Stärk, K D C; Staubach, C; Vicente-Rubiano, M; Witteveen, G; Pfeiffer, D; Häsler, B

2017-03-01

Animal health surveillance enables the detection and control of animal diseases including zoonoses. Under the EU-FP7 project RISKSUR, a survey was conducted in 11 EU Member States and Switzerland to describe active surveillance components in 2011 managed by the public or private sector and identify gaps and opportunities. Information was collected about hazard, target population, geographical focus, legal obligation, management, surveillance design, risk-based sampling, and multi-hazard surveillance. Two countries were excluded due to incompleteness of data. Most of the 664 components targeted cattle (26·7%), pigs (17·5%) or poultry (16·0%). The most common surveillance objectives were demonstrating freedom from disease (43·8%) and case detection (26·8%). Over half of components applied risk-based sampling (57·1%), but mainly focused on a single population stratum (targeted risk-based) rather than differentiating between risk levels of different strata (stratified risk-based). About a third of components were multi-hazard (37·3%). Both risk-based sampling and multi-hazard surveillance were used more frequently in privately funded components. The study identified several gaps (e.g. lack of systematic documentation, inconsistent application of terminology) and opportunities (e.g. stratified risk-based sampling). The greater flexibility provided by the new EU Animal Health Law means that systematic evaluation of surveillance alternatives will be required to optimize cost-effectiveness.

78 FR 50070 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-16

..., referral for services, and service follow-up of youth at risk. \\1\\ The evaluation as designed includes four... grantees, the research questions outlined in the evaluation statement of work, and the state of the knowledge base in the field of suicide prevention. As such, while the evaluation design does not currently...

PILOT-SCALE EVALUATION OF AN INCINERABILITY RANKING SYSTEM FOR HAZARDOUS ORGANIC COMPOUNDS

EPA Science Inventory

The subject study was conducted to evaluate an incinerability ranking system developed by teh University of Dayton Research Institute under contract to the EPA Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory. Fixtures of organic compounds were prepared and combined with a clay-based sorben...

Evaluation of the Potential Optical Radiation Hazards with Led Lamps Intended for Home Use.

PubMed

James, Robert H; Landry, Robert J; Walker, Bennett N; Ilev, Ilko K

2017-01-01

The authors evaluated the potential for ocular damage from optical radiation emitted by Light Emitting Diode (LED) based lamps used for general illumination. Ten LED lamps were randomly selected off the shelf from a local home improvement store. The LEDs were behind diffusers in half of these lamps, while in the other half, the LEDs were clearly visible. In addition, a battery powered LED lantern having a LED source behind a diffuser was measured. The optical radiation emissions from two common incandescent lamps were also measured to compare the relative hazards of LED and incandescent lamps. All lamp samples were evaluated in accordance with procedures specified in the American National Standards Institute/Illuminating Engineering Society of North America (ANSI/IESNA) Standard RP-27.3. For comparison purposes, the lantern and 100 W incandescent lamps were also evaluated according to ANSI RP-27.1. These measurements indicate that no lamp evaluated poses any photobiological hazard, and therefore, all lamps fall in the RP-27.3 category of Exempt Group. However, when evaluated in accordance with RP-27.1, the 100 W incandescent lamp would be classified in Risk Group 1 (low risk), while the LED lantern would be classified in Risk Group 2 (moderate risk).

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

PubMed Central

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. PMID:27084274

Institutional facilitators and barriers to local public health preparedness planning for vulnerable and at-risk populations.

PubMed

Bevc, Christine A; Simon, Matthew C; Montoya, Tanya A; Horney, Jennifer A

2014-01-01

Numerous institutional facilitators and barriers to preparedness planning exist at the local level for vulnerable and at-risk populations. Findings of this evaluation study contribute to ongoing practice-based efforts to improve response services and address public health preparedness planning and training as they relate to vulnerable and at-risk populations. From January 2012 through June 2013, we conducted a multilevel, mixed-methods evaluation study of the North Carolina Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Center's Vulnerable & At-Risk Populations Resource Guide, an online tool to aid local health departments' (LHDs') preparedness planning efforts. We examined planning practices across multiple local, regional, and state jurisdictions utilizing user data, follow-up surveys, and secondary data. To identify potential incongruities in planning, we compared respondents' reported populations of interest with corresponding census data to determine whether or not there were differences in planning priorities. We used data collected from evaluation surveys to identify key institutional facilitators and barriers associated with planning for at-risk populations, including challenges to conducting assessments and lack of resources. Results identified both barriers within institutional culture and disconnects between planning priorities and evidence-based identification of vulnerable and at-risk populations, including variation in the planning process, partnerships, and perceptions. Our results highlight the important role of LHDs in preparedness planning and the potential implications associated with organizational and bureaucratic impediments to planning implementation. A more in-depth understanding of the relationships among public institutions and the levels of preparedness that contribute to the conditions and processes that generate vulnerability is needed.

A practice-based evaluation of a liquid barrier film.

PubMed

Harding, Nicola

2002-05-01

In palliative care it is often the little things such as being comfortable that help to improve a patient's quality of life. When the opportunity arose in our hospice to take part in a practice-based evaluation of a product that promised to make patients more comfortable, we were pleased to take part. Our small-scale evaluation was part of a wider study of SuperSkin, a liquid barrier film designed to protect skin at risk of damage. Information was collected from the patient, patient's medical notes and the nursing staff - a patient daily diary record was used in addition to normal information recordings. We evaluated the efficacy of the product and found this liquid barrier film to have a positive effect in several ways. It appeared to assist in the healing of skin damaged by friction and shearing forces, and from excoriation from wound exudates, urine and faeces. In addition, it appeared to protect healthy, 'at risk' skin from the same problems.

Human errors and measurement uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca

2015-04-01

Evaluating the residual risk of human errors in a measurement and testing laboratory, remaining after the error reduction by the laboratory quality system, and quantifying the consequences of this risk for the quality of the measurement/test results are discussed based on expert judgments and Monte Carlo simulations. A procedure for evaluation of the contribution of the residual risk to the measurement uncertainty budget is proposed. Examples are provided using earlier published sets of expert judgments on human errors in pH measurement of groundwater, elemental analysis of geological samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and multi-residue analysis of pesticides in fruits and vegetables. The human error contribution to the measurement uncertainty budget in the examples was not negligible, yet also not dominant. This was assessed as a good risk management result.

Development of a community-based intervention for the control of Chagas disease based on peridomestic animal management: an eco-bio-social perspective

PubMed Central

De Urioste-Stone, Sandra M.; Pennington, Pamela M.; Pellecer, Elizabeth; Aguilar, Teresa M.; Samayoa, Gabriela; Perdomo, Hugo D.; Enríquez, Hugo; Juárez, José G.

2015-01-01

Background Integrated vector management strategies depend on local eco-bio-social conditions, community participation, political will and inter-sectorial partnership. Previously identified risk factors for persistent Triatoma dimidiata infestation include the presence of rodents and chickens, tiled roofs, dirt floors, partial wall plastering and dog density. Methods A community-based intervention was developed and implemented based on cyclical stakeholder and situational analyses. Intervention implementation and evaluation combined participatory action research and cluster randomized pre-test post-test experimental designs. The intervention included modified insecticide application, education regarding Chagas disease and risk factors, and participatory rodent control. Results At final evaluation there was no significant difference in post-test triatomine infestation between intervention and control, keeping pre-test rodent and triatomine infestations constant. Knowledge levels regarding Chagas disease and prevention practices including rodent control, chicken management and health service access increased significantly only in intervention communities. The odds of nymph infection and rat infestation were 8.3 and 1.9-fold higher in control compared to intervention communities, respectively. Conclusion Vector control measures without reservoir control are insufficient to reduce transmission risk in areas with persistent triatomine infestation. This integrated vector management program can complement house improvement initiatives by prioritizing households with risk factors such as tiled roofs. Requirement for active participation and multi-sectorial coordination poses implementation challenges. PMID:25604767

Management of heart failure in the new era: the role of scores.

PubMed

Mantegazza, Valentina; Badagliacca, Roberto; Nodari, Savina; Parati, Gianfranco; Lombardi, Carolina; Di Somma, Salvatore; Carluccio, Erberto; Dini, Frank Lloyd; Correale, Michele; Magrì, Damiano; Agostoni, Piergiuseppe

2016-08-01

Heart failure is a widespread syndrome involving several organs, still characterized by high mortality and morbidity, and whose clinical course is heterogeneous and hardly predictable.In this scenario, the assessment of heart failure prognosis represents a fundamental step in clinical practice. A single parameter is always unable to provide a very precise prognosis. Therefore, risk scores based on multiple parameters have been introduced, but their clinical utility is still modest. In this review, we evaluated several prognostic models for acute, right, chronic, and end-stage heart failure based on multiple parameters. In particular, for chronic heart failure we considered risk scores essentially based on clinical evaluation, comorbidities analysis, baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, sleep disorders, laboratory tests, echocardiographic imaging, and cardiopulmonary exercise test parameters. What is at present established is that a single parameter is not sufficient for an accurate prediction of prognosis in heart failure because of the complex nature of the disease. However, none of the scoring systems available is widely used, being in some cases complex, not user-friendly, or based on expensive or not easily available parameters. We believe that multiparametric scores for risk assessment in heart failure are promising but their widespread use needs to be experienced.

LESSONS FROM A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF A 5-YR PERIOD OF PRESHIPMENT TESTING AT SAN DIEGO ZOO: A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO PRESHIPMENT TESTING MAY BENEFIT ANIMAL WELFARE.

PubMed

Marinkovich, Matt; Wallace, Chelsea; Morris, Pat J; Rideout, Bruce; Pye, Geoffrey W

2016-03-01

The preshipment examination, with associated transmissible disease testing, has become standard practice in the movement of animals between zoos. An alternative disease risk-based approach, based on a comprehensive surveillance program including necropsy and preventive medicine examination testing and data, has been in practice since 2006 between the San Diego Zoo and San Diego Zoo Safari Park. A retrospective analysis, evaluating comprehensive necropsy data and preshipment testing over a 5-yr study period, was performed to determine the viability of this model for use with sending animals to other institutions. Animals (607 birds, 704 reptiles and amphibians, and 341 mammals) were shipped to 116 Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA)-accredited and 29 non-AZA-accredited institutions. The evaluation showed no evidence of the specific transmissible diseases tested for during the preshipment exam being present within the San Diego Zoo collection. We suggest that a risk-based animal and institution-specific approach to transmissible disease preshipment testing is more cost effective and is in the better interest of animal welfare than the current industry standard of dogmatic preshipment testing.

Objective Assessment of Fall Risk in Parkinson's Disease Using a Body-Fixed Sensor Worn for 3 Days

PubMed Central

Weiss, Aner; Herman, Talia; Giladi, Nir; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M.

2014-01-01

Background Patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) suffer from a high fall risk. Previous approaches for evaluating fall risk are based on self-report or testing at a given time point and may, therefore, be insufficient to optimally capture fall risk. We tested, for the first time, whether metrics derived from 3 day continuous recordings are associated with fall risk in PD. Methods and Materials 107 patients (Hoehn & Yahr Stage: 2.6±0.7) wore a small, body-fixed sensor (3D accelerometer) on lower back for 3 days. Walking quantity (e.g., steps per 3-days) and quality (e.g., frequency-derived measures of gait variability) were determined. Subjects were classified as fallers or non-fallers based on fall history. Subjects were also followed for one year to evaluate predictors of the transition from non-faller to faller. Results The 3 day acceleration derived measures were significantly different in fallers and non-fallers and were significantly correlated with previously validated measures of fall risk. Walking quantity was similar in the two groups. In contrast, the fallers walked with higher step-to-step variability, e.g., anterior-posterior width of the dominant frequency was larger (p = 0.012) in the fallers (0.78±0.17 Hz) compared to the non-fallers (0.71±0.07 Hz). Among subjects who reported no falls in the year prior to testing, sensor-derived measures predicted the time to first fall (p = 0.0034), whereas many traditional measures did not. Cox regression analysis showed that anterior-posterior width was significantly (p = 0.0039) associated with time to fall during the follow-up period, even after adjusting for traditional measures. Conclusions/Significance These findings indicate that a body-fixed sensor worn continuously can evaluate fall risk in PD. This sensor-based approach was able to identify transition from non-faller to faller, whereas many traditional metrics were not successful. This approach may facilitate earlier detection of fall risk and may in the future, help reduce high costs associated with falls. PMID:24801889

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training

PubMed Central

Cramer, Robert J.; Johnson, Shara M.; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M.; Conroy, Mary Alice

2014-01-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation. PMID:24672588

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Johnson, Shara M; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M; Conroy, Mary Alice

2013-02-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation.

A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

PubMed

Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

2011-01-01

Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

Using random forest for the risk assessment of coal-floor water inrush in Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dekang; Wu, Qiang; Cui, Fangpeng; Xu, Hua; Zeng, Yifan; Cao, Yufei; Du, Yuanze

2018-04-01

Coal-floor water-inrush incidents account for a large proportion of coal mine disasters in northern China, and accurate risk assessment is crucial for safe coal production. A novel and promising assessment model for water inrush is proposed based on random forest (RF), which is a powerful intelligent machine-learning algorithm. RF has considerable advantages, including high classification accuracy and the capability to evaluate the importance of variables; in particularly, it is robust in dealing with the complicated and non-linear problems inherent in risk assessment. In this study, the proposed model is applied to Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China. Eight factors were selected as evaluation indices according to systematic analysis of the geological conditions and a field survey of the study area. Risk assessment maps were generated based on RF, and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) model was also used for risk assessment as a comparison. The results demonstrate that the two methods are consistent in the risk assessment of water inrush at the mine, and RF shows a better performance compared to PNN with an overall accuracy higher by 6.67%. It is concluded that RF is more practicable to assess the water-inrush risk than PNN. The presented method will be helpful in avoiding water inrush and also can be extended to various engineering applications.

An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

2015-11-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

Risk of equine infectious disease transmission by non-race horse movements in Japan.

PubMed

Hayama, Yoko; Kobayashi, Sota; Nishida, Takeshi; Nishiguchi, Akiko; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki

2010-07-01

For determining surveillance programs or infectious disease countermeasures, risk evaluation approaches have been recently undertaken in the field of animal health. In the present study, to help establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases, we evaluated the potential risk of equine infectious disease transmission in non-race horses from the viewpoints of horse movements and health management practices by conducting a survey of non-race horse holdings. From the survey, the non-race horse population was classified into the following five sectors based on their purposes: the equestrian sector, private owner sector, exhibition sector, fattening sector and others. Our survey results showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had the largest population sizes, and movements between and within these sectors occurred quite frequently, while there was little movement in the other sectors. Qualitative evaluation showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had relatively high risks of equine infectious disease transmission through horse movements. Therefore, it would be effective to concentrate on these two sectors when implementing surveillance or preventative measures. Special priority should be given to the private owner sector because this sector has not implemented inspection and vaccination well compared with the equestrian sector, which possesses a high compliance rate for these practices. This qualitative risk evaluation focused on horse movements and health management practices could provide a basis for further risk evaluation to establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases.

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Statement of the Spanish Interdisciplinary Cardiovascular Prevention Committee (CEIPC for its Spanish acronym) on the 2012 European Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines.

PubMed

Royo-Bordonada, M A; Lobos Bejarano, J M; Villar Alvarez, F; Sans, S; Pérez, A; Pedro-Botet, J; Moreno Carriles, R M; Maiques, A; Lizcano, Á; Lizarbe, V; Gil Núñez, A; Fornés Ubeda, F; Elosua, R; de Santiago Nocito, A; de Pablo Zarzosa, C; de Álvaro Moreno, F; Cortés, O; Cordero, A; Camafort Babkowski, M; Brotons Cuixart, C; Armario, P

2016-04-01

Based on the two main frameworks for evaluating scientific evidence (SEC and GRADE) European cardiovascular prevention guidelines recommend interventions across all life stages using a combination of population-based and high-risk strategies with diet as the cornerstone of prevention. The evaluation of cardiovascular risk (CVR) incorporates HDL levels and psychosocial factors, a very high risk category, and the concept of age-risk. They also recommend cognitive-behavioural methods (e.g., motivational interviewing, psychological interventions) led by health professionals and with the participation of the patient's family, to counterbalance psychosocial stress and reduce CVR through the institution of positive habits such as a healthy diet, physical activity, smoking cessation, and adherence to treatment. Additionally, public health interventions - such as smoking ban in public areas or the elimination of trans fatty acids from the food chain - are also essential. Other innovations include abandoning antiplatelet therapy in primary prevention and the recommendation of maintaining blood pressure within the 130-139/80-85 mmHg range in diabetic patients and individuals with high CVR. Finally, due to the significant impact on patient progress and medical costs, special emphasis is given to the low therapeutic adherence levels observed. In sum, improving cardiovascular prevention requires a true partnership among the political class, public administrations, scientific and professional associations, health foundations, consumer associations, patients and their families. Such partnership would promote population-based and individual strategies by taking advantage of the broad spectrum of scientific evidence available, from clinical trials to observational studies and mathematical models to evaluate population-based interventions, including cost-effectiveness analyses. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

[Statement of the Spanish Interdisciplinary Cardiovascular Prevention Committee (CEIPC for its Spanish acronym) on the 2012 European Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines].

PubMed

Royo-Bordonada, Miguel Angel; Lobos Bejarano, José María; Villar Alvarez, Fernando; Sans, Susana; Pérez, Antonio; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Moreno Carriles, Rosa María; Maiques, Antonio; Lizcano, Angel; Lizarbe, Vicenta; Gil Núñez, Antonio; Fornés Ubeda, Francisco; Elosua, Roberto; de Santiago Nocito, Ana; de Pablo Zarzosa, Carmen; de Álvaro Moreno, Fernando; Cortés, Olga; Cordero, Alberto; Camafort Babkowski, Miguel; Brotons Cuixart, Carlos; Armario, Pedro

2013-01-01

Based on the two main frameworks for evaluating scientific evidence (SEC and GRADE) European cardiovascular prevention guidelines recommend interventions across all life stages using a combination of population-based and high-risk strategies with diet as the cornerstone of prevention. The evaluation of cardiovascular risk (CVR) incorporates HDL levels and psychosocial factors, a very high risk category, and the concept of age-risk. They also recommend cognitive-behavioural methods (e.g., motivational interviewing, psychological interventions) led by health professionals and with the participation of the patient's family, to counterbalance psychosocial stress and reduce CVR through the institution of positive habits such as a healthy diet, physical activity, smoking cessation, and adherence to treatment. Additionally, public health interventions - such as smoking ban in public areas or the elimination of trans fatty acids from the food chain - are also essential. Other innovations include abandoning antiplatelet therapy in primary prevention and the recommendation of maintaining blood pressure within the 130-139/80-85mmHg range in diabetic patients and individuals with high CVR. Finally, due to the significant impact on patient progress and medical costs, special emphasis is given to the low therapeutic adherence levels observed. In sum, improving cardiovascular prevention requires a true partnership among the political class, public administrations, scientific and professional associations, health foundations, consumer associations, patients and their families. Such partnership would promote population-based and individual strategies by taking advantage of the broad spectrum of scientific evidence available, from clinical trials to observational studies and mathematical models to evaluate population-based interventions, including cost-effectiveness analyses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEA. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of markers and risk prediction models: Overview of relationships between NRI and decision-analytic measures

PubMed Central

Calster, Ben Van; Vickers, Andrew J; Pencina, Michael J; Baker, Stuart G; Timmerman, Dirk; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND For the evaluation and comparison of markers and risk prediction models, various novel measures have recently been introduced as alternatives to the commonly used difference in the area under the ROC curve (ΔAUC). The Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) is increasingly popular to compare predictions with one or more risk thresholds, but decision-analytic approaches have also been proposed. OBJECTIVE We aimed to identify the mathematical relationships between novel performance measures for the situation that a single risk threshold T is used to classify patients as having the outcome or not. METHODS We considered the NRI and three utility-based measures that take misclassification costs into account: difference in Net Benefit (ΔNB), difference in Relative Utility (ΔRU), and weighted NRI (wNRI). We illustrate the behavior of these measures in 1938 women suspect of ovarian cancer (prevalence 28%). RESULTS The three utility-based measures appear transformations of each other, and hence always lead to consistent conclusions. On the other hand, conclusions may differ when using the standard NRI, depending on the adopted risk threshold T, prevalence P and the obtained differences in sensitivity and specificity of the two models that are compared. In the case study, adding the CA-125 tumor marker to a baseline set of covariates yielded a negative NRI yet a positive value for the utility-based measures. CONCLUSIONS The decision-analytic measures are each appropriate to indicate the clinical usefulness of an added marker or compare prediction models, since these measures each reflect misclassification costs. This is of practical importance as these measures may thus adjust conclusions based on purely statistical measures. A range of risk thresholds should be considered in applying these measures. PMID:23313931

A risk-based approach for assessing the recycling potential of an alkaline waste material as road sub-base filler material.

PubMed

Di Gianfilippo, Martina; Verginelli, Iason; Costa, Giulia; Spagnuolo, Riccardo; Gavasci, Renato; Lombardi, Francesco

2018-01-01

In this work we present an integrated risk-based approach that can be used to evaluate the recycling potential of an alkaline waste material such as incineration bottom ash (BA) as unbound material for road sub-base construction. This approach, which is aimed at assessing potential risks to the groundwater resource (in terms of drinking water quality) and human health associated to the leaching of contaminants from the BA, couples the results of leaching tests for the estimation of source concentrations with the fate and transport models usually adopted in risk assessment procedures. The effects of weathering and of the type of leaching test employed to evaluate eluate concentrations were assessed by carrying out different simulations using the results of laboratory leaching tests. Specifically, pH-dependence and column percolation leaching tests were performed on freshly collected and 1-year naturally weathered BA samples produced from a grate-fired incineration plant treating Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF). To evaluate a broad span of possible scenario conditions, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed running 5000 simulations, randomly varying the input parameters within the ranges expected in the field. In nearly all the simulated conditions, the concentrations of contaminants in the groundwater for the specific type of BA tested in this work were well below EU and WHO drinking water quality criteria. Nevertheless, some caution should be paid in the case of the establishment of acidic conditions in the field since in this case the concentration of some elements (i.e. Al, Pb and Zn) is expected to exceed threshold values. In terms of risks to human health, for the considered utilization scenario the probability of exceeding the acceptable reference dose for water ingestion was usually less than 1% (except for Cr and Pb for which the probability was lower than 3.5% and 7%, respectively). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of personal experience on choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs

Treesearch

Tom Holmes; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John Loomis; Jose Sanchez

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss and cost. Preference heterogeneity among survey respondents was examined using three econometric models and risk preferences were evaluated by comparing willingness to pay for wildfire protection...

Forecasting Exposure in Order to Use High Throughput Hazard Data in a Risk-based Context (WC9)

EPA Science Inventory

The ToxCast program and Tox21 consortium have evaluated over 8000 chemicals using in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) to identify potential hazards. Complementary exposure science needed to assess risk, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s ExpoCast initiative...

Training AIDS and Anger Prevention Social Skills in At-Risk Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hovell, Melbourne F.; Blumberg, Elaine J.; Liles, Sandy; Powell, Linda; Morrison, Theodore C.; Duran, Gabriela; Sipan, Carol L.; Burkham, Susan; Kelley, Norma

2001-01-01

Tests the effectiveness of behavioral skills training based on the Behavioral-Ecological Model among a group of adolescents. Evaluates two interventions: one teaching condom use skills and the other teaching anger management skills. Changes in most skills were significant at postintervention but were not maintained at six months. Few risk-related…

Youth Justice in England and Wales: A Risky Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paylor, Ian

2011-01-01

Risk factor research dominates explanatory models of youth offending and "evidence-based" policy and practice with young people in the youth justice system in England and Wales. Asset is the product of these actuarial ideas and has put the risk factor prevention paradigm into practice. This article evaluates the impact that an actuarial…

Fostering At-Risk Preschoolers' Number Sense

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baroody, Arthur; Eiland, Michael; Thompson, Bradley

2009-01-01

Research Findings: A 9-month study served to evaluate the effectiveness of a pre-kindergarten number sense curriculum. Phase 1 of the intervention involved manipulative-, game-based number sense instruction; Phase 2, computer-aided mental-arithmetic training with the simplest sums. Eighty 4- and 5-year-olds at risk for school failure were randomly…

Improving the Economic and Life Outcomes of At-Risk Youth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ivry, Robert; Doolittle, Fred

This paper outlines ideas and strategies to engage alienated and disaffected young people and help them acquire skills, gain work experience, and improve their lives. Based on lessons learned from three decades of demonstrations and evaluations concerning at-risk youth, the paper presents ideas that government agencies and private foundations…

THE EFFECTS OF AN ORGANOPHOSPHATE (OP)-CARBAMATE (CB) PESTICIDE MIXTURE ON CORE TEMPERATURE AND MOTOR ACTIVITY IN THE RAT.

EPA Science Inventory

Pesticide risk assessment has traditionally been based on the toxicological response to single agents. Dose-additivity has been the default in risk assessment evaluations of pesticides with a common mechanism of action, but there could be supra-additive or infra-additive inter...

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... provisions for performance-based payments, do not compute a working capital adjustment. (d) Evaluation... working capital adjustment. 215.404-71-3 Section 215.404-71-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System... CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 215.404-71-3 Contract type risk and working capital adjustment. (a...

Evaluating Potential Human Health Risks Associated with the Development of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Facilities on Contaminated Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, J. -J.; Chang, Y. -S.; Hartmann, H.

2013-09-01

This report presents a general methodology for obtaining preliminary estimates of the potential human health risks associated with developing a utility-scale solar energy facility on a contaminated site, based on potential exposures to contaminants in soils (including transport of those contaminants into the air).

Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine‐active substances

EPA Science Inventory

A SETAC Pellston Workshop™ ?‘Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)’ was held from 31st January to 5th February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary aim of the workshop was to provide objective advice, based on current s...

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Regulatory science based approach in development of novel medical devices.

PubMed

Sakuma, Ichiro

2015-08-01

For development rational evaluation method for medical devices' safety and efficacy, regulatory science studies are important. Studies on regulatory affairs related to a medical device under development should be conducted as well as its technological development. Clinical performance of a medical device is influenced by performance of the device, medical doctors' skill, pathological condition of a patient, and so on. Thus it is sometimes difficult to demonstrate superiority of the device in terms of clinical outcome although its efficacy as a medical device is accepted. Setting of appropriate end points is required to evaluate a medical device appropriately. Risk assessment and risk management are the basis of medical device safety assurance. In case of medical device software, there are difficulties in identifying the risk due to its complexity of user environment and different design and manufacturing procedure compared with conventional hardware based medical devices. Recent technological advancement such as information and communication technologies (ICT) for medical devices and wireless network has raised new issue on risk management: cybersecurity. We have to watch closely the progress of safety standard development.

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

Which BRCA genetic testing programs are ready for implementation in health care? A systematic review of economic evaluations.

PubMed

D'Andrea, Elvira; Marzuillo, Carolina; De Vito, Corrado; Di Marco, Marco; Pitini, Erica; Vacchio, Maria Rosaria; Villari, Paolo

2016-12-01

There is considerable evidence regarding the efficacy and effectiveness of BRCA genetic testing programs, but whether they represent good use of financial resources is not clear. Therefore, we aimed to identify the main health-care programs for BRCA testing and to evaluate their cost-effectiveness. We performed a systematic review of full economic evaluations of health-care programs involving BRCA testing. Nine economic evaluations were included, and four main categories of BRCA testing programs were identified: (i) population-based genetic screening of individuals without cancer, either comprehensive or targeted based on ancestry; (ii) family history (FH)-based genetic screening, i.e., testing individuals without cancer but with FH suggestive of BRCA mutation; (iii) familial mutation (FM)-based genetic screening, i.e., testing individuals without cancer but with known familial BRCA mutation; and (iv) cancer-based genetic screening, i.e., testing individuals with BRCA-related cancers. Currently BRCA1/2 population-based screening represents good value for the money among Ashkenazi Jews only. FH-based screening is potentially very cost-effective, although further studies that include costs of identifying high-risk women are needed. There is no evidence of cost-effectiveness for BRCA screening of all newly diagnosed cases of breast/ovarian cancers followed by cascade testing of relatives, but programs that include tools for identifying affected women at higher risk for inherited forms are promising. Cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the cost of BRCA1/2 testing.Genet Med 18 12, 1171-1180.

Affective and cognitive factors influencing sensitivity to probabilistic information.

PubMed

Tyszka, Tadeusz; Sawicki, Przemyslaw

2011-11-01

In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within-subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience-based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience-based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience-based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus-response compatibility. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of external hazards to nuclear power plants in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimura, C.Y.; Budnitz, R.J.

1987-12-01

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has performed a study of the risk of core damage to nuclear power plants in the United States due to externally initiated events. The broad objective has been to gain an understanding of whether or not each external initiator is among the major potential accident initiators that may pose a threat of severe reactor core damage or of large radioactive release to the environment from the reactor. Four external hazards were investigated in this report. These external hazards are internal fires, high winds/tornadoes, external floods, and transportation accidents. Analysis was based on two figures-of-merit,more » one based on core damage frequency and the other based on the frequency of large radioactive releases. Using these two figures-of-merit as evaluation criteria, it has been feasible to ascertain whether the risk from externally initiated accidents is, or is not, an important contributor to overall risk for the US nuclear power plants studied. This has been accomplished for each initiator separately. 208 refs., 17 figs., 45 tabs.« less

Evidence-based guidelines for fall prevention in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Kwang-Il; Jung, Hye-Kyung; Kim, Chang Oh; Kim, Soo-Kyung; Cho, Hyun-Ho; Kim, Dae Yul; Ha, Yong-Chan; Hwang, Sung-Hee; Won, Chang Won; Lim, Jae-Young; Kim, Hyun Jung; Kim, Jae Gyu

2017-01-01

Falls and fall-related injuries are common in older populations and have negative effects on quality of life and independence. Falling is also associated with increased morbidity, mortality, nursing home admission, and medical costs. Korea has experienced an extreme demographic shift with its population aging at the fastest pace among developed countries, so it is important to assess fall risks and develop interventions for high-risk populations. Guidelines for the prevention of falls were first developed by the Korean Association of Internal Medicine and the Korean Geriatrics Society. These guidelines were developed through an adaptation process as an evidence-based method; four guidelines were retrieved via systematic review and the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation II process, and seven recommendations were developed based on the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation framework. Because falls are the result of various factors, the guidelines include a multidimensional assessment and multimodal strategy. The guidelines were developed for primary physicians as well as patients and the general population. They provide detailed recommendations and concrete measures to assess risk and prevent falls among older people. PMID:28049285

Risk control and the minimum significant risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

1996-06-01

Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limitmore » to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented.« less

A fish consumption study of anglers in an at-risk community: a community-based participatory approach to risk reduction.

PubMed

Derrick, Corliss G; Miller, Jacqueline S A; Andrews, Jeannette M

2008-01-01

To determine the effectiveness of a community-partnered risk communication intervention tailored for subsistence anglers in a public housing community. A one group, pretest, posttest design was used to test the effectiveness of the intervention in a sample (n=23, age range 18-75 years, 100% African American) of subsistence anglers residing in a public housing community in close proximity to a Superfund clean-up site. Face-to-face surveys were conducted at baseline and 3 months post the intervention to assess changes in knowledge and behaviors. A socioculturally appropriate risk communication intervention was developed, implemented, and evaluated in the targeted community. The risk communication included an interactive power point presentation, visual demonstration by a role model, and distribution of low literacy written materials, followed by a booster mailing of materials 1 month past the initial intervention. Evaluation measures included survey instruments on knowledge and self-reported fishing behaviors. Participants showed improved knowledge and behavior change related to trimming fish, consumption by pregnant women and children, and consumption of large fish. The sociocultured tailored risk communication intervention demonstrated promising outcomes in this community and should be evaluated in a larger population of subsistence anglers.

Survival disparities in patients with lymphoma according to place of residence and treatment provider: a population-based study.

PubMed

Loberiza, Fausto R; Cannon, Anthony J; Weisenburger, Dennis D; Vose, Julie M; Moehr, Matt J; Bast, Martin A; Bierman, Philip J; Bociek, R Gregory; Armitage, James O

2009-11-10

Health disparities exist according to an individual's place of residence. We evaluated the association between primary area of residence (urban v rural) according to treatment provider (university based v community based) and overall survival in patients with lymphoma and determined whether there are patient groups that could benefit from better coordination of care. Population-based, retrospective cohort study of 2,330 patients with centrally confirmed lymphoma from Nebraska and surrounding states and treated by university-based or community-based oncologists from 1982 to 2006. Among urban residents, 321 (14%) were treated by university-based providers (UUB) and 816 (35%) were treated by community-based providers (UCB). Among rural residents, 332 (14%) were treated by university-based providers (RUB), and 861 (37%) were treated by community-based providers (RCB). The relative risk (RR) of death among UUB, UCB, and RUB were not statistically different. However, RCB had a higher risk of death (RR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.65; P = .01; and RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.49; P = .01) when compared with UUB and RUB, respectively. This association was true in both low- and intermediate-risk patients. Among high-risk patients, UCB, RUB, and RCB were all at higher risk of death when compared with UUB. Survival outcomes of patients with lymphoma may be associated with place of residence and treatment provider. High-risk patients from rural areas may benefit from better coordination of care.

Disaster Risk Reduction in Myanmar: A Need for Focus on Community Preparedness and Improved Evaluation of Initiatives.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew D; Chan, Emily Y Y

2017-11-20

Myanmar is a country in political and economic transition. Facing a wide-variety of natural hazards and ongoing conflict, the country's under-developed infrastructure has resulted in high disaster risk. Following the devastation of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 and increased global focus on disaster management and risk reduction, Myanmar has begun development of national disaster policies. Myanmar's Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction addressed multiple stages of disaster development and has made progress towards national projects, however, has struggled to implement community-based preparedness and response initiatives. This article analyses Myanmar's disaster strategy, though the use of a disaster development framework and suggests areas for possible improvement. In particular, the article aims to generate discussion regarding methods of supporting objective evaluation of risk reduction initiatives in developing countries. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 5).

[Impact of water pollution risk in water transfer project based on fault tree analysis].

PubMed

Liu, Jian-Chang; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Li-Min; Li, Dai-Qing; Fan, Xiu-Ying; Deng, Hong-Bing

2009-09-15

The methods to assess water pollution risk for medium water transfer are gradually being explored. The event-nature-proportion method was developed to evaluate the probability of the single event. Fault tree analysis on the basis of calculation on single event was employed to evaluate the extent of whole water pollution risk for the channel water body. The result indicates, that the risk of pollutants from towns and villages along the line of water transfer project to the channel water body is at high level with the probability of 0.373, which will increase pollution to the channel water body at the rate of 64.53 mg/L COD, 4.57 mg/L NH4(+) -N and 0.066 mg/L volatilization hydroxybenzene, respectively. The measurement of fault probability on the basis of proportion method is proved to be useful in assessing water pollution risk under much uncertainty.

Risk analysis of information security in a mobile instant messaging and presence system for healthcare.

PubMed

Bønes, Erlend; Hasvold, Per; Henriksen, Eva; Strandenaes, Thomas

2007-09-01

Instant messaging (IM) is suited for immediate communication because messages are delivered almost in real time. Results from studies of IM use in enterprise work settings make us believe that IM based services may prove useful also within the healthcare sector. However, today's public instant messaging services do not have the level of information security required for adoption of IM in healthcare. We proposed MedIMob, our own architecture for a secure enterprise IM service for use in healthcare. MedIMob supports IM clients on mobile devices in addition to desktop based clients. Security threats were identified in a risk analysis of the MedIMob architecture. The risk analysis process consists of context identification, threat identification, analysis of consequences and likelihood, risk evaluation, and proposals for risk treatment. The risk analysis revealed a number of potential threats to the information security of a service like this. Many of the identified threats are general when dealing with mobile devices and sensitive data; others are threats which are more specific to our service and architecture. Individual threats identified in the risks analysis are discussed and possible counter measures presented. The risk analysis showed that most of the proposed risk treatment measures must be implemented to obtain an acceptable risk level; among others blocking much of the additional functionality of the smartphone. To conclude on the usefulness of this IM service, it will be evaluated in a trial study of the human-computer interaction. Further work also includes an improved design of the proposed MedIMob architecture. 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd

Late Life Depression Detection: An Evidence-Based Guideline

PubMed Central

Smith, Marianne; Haedtke, Christine; Shibley, Deborah

2015-01-01

The disability associated with late life depression makes it an important target for screening. Identifying clinically significant depression symptoms in older adults who have known risk factors provides an important opportunity for early evaluation and treatment. Screening that leads to evaluation and treatment is critical to both preventing depression, and reducing the associated disability, symptom burden, and costs of major depressive disorders (MDD). The guideline described here recommends the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) for screening because it is based on diagnostic criteria for MDD and has the advantages of being brief, self-administered, easily scored and interpreted, and reliable and valid in diverse populations and care settings. Nurses and allied health professionals who provide care to older adults across the continuum of care are uniquely positioned to identify at risk older adults, use depression screening scales, make needed referrals for evaluation and treatment, and monitor outcomes across time. PMID:25633861

Measuring informed choice in population-based reproductive genetic screening: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Ames, Alice Grace; Metcalfe, Sylvia Ann; Archibald, Alison Dalton; Duncan, Rony Emily; Emery, Jon

2015-01-01

Genetic screening and health-care guidelines recommend that programmes should facilitate informed choice. It is therefore important that accurate measures of informed choice are available to evaluate such programmes. This review synthesises and appraises measures used to evaluate informed choice in population-based genetic screening programmes for reproductive risk. Databases were searched for studies offering genetic screening for the purpose of establishing reproductive risk to an adult population sample, in which aspects of informed choice were measured. Studies were included if, at a minimum, measures of uptake of screening and knowledge were used. Searches identified 1462 citations and 76 studies were reviewed in full text; 34 studies met the inclusion criteria. Over 20 different measures of informed choice were used. Many measures lacked adequate validity and reliability data. This systematic review will inform future evaluation of informed choice in population genetic screening programmes. PMID:24848746

Research on big data risk assessment of major transformer defects and faults fusing power grid, equipment and environment based on SVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lijuan; Yan, Haijun; Gao, Wensheng; Chen, Yun; Hao, Yongqi

2018-01-01

With the development of power big data, considering the wider power system data, the appropriate large data analysis method can be used to mine the potential law and value of power big data. On the basis of considering all kinds of monitoring data and defects and fault records of main transformer, the paper integrates the power grid, equipment as well as environment data and uses SVM as the main algorithm to evaluate the risk of the main transformer. It gets and compares the evaluation results under different modes, and proves that the risk assessment algorithms and schemes have certain effectiveness. This paper provides a new idea for data fusion of smart grid, and provides a reference for further big data evaluation of power grid equipment.

Risk evaluation of available phosphorus loss in agricultural land based on remote sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xiaodong; Zhou, Bin; Xu, Junfeng; Liu, Ting; Xie, Bin

2010-09-01

The surplus of phosphorus leads to water eutrophication. Huge input of fertilizers in agricultural activities enriches nutrition in soil. The superfluous nutrient moves easily to riparian water by rainfall and surface runoff; leads to water eutrophication of riparian wetlands and downstream water; and consequently affects ecological balance. Thus it is significant to investigate the risk of phosphorus loss in agricultural land, to identify high concentration areas and guide the management of nutrition loss. This study was implemented mainly in the area of agricultural use in southern Western Australia, where a three-year period preliminary monitoring of water quality showed that the concentration of different forms of phosphorus in water had far exceeded the standard. Due to the large scale surface runoff caused by occasional storms in Western Australia, soil erosion was selected as the main driving factor for the loss of phosphorus. Remote sensing and ground truth data were used to reflect the seasonal changes of plants. The spatial distribution of available phosphorus was then predicted and combined with the evaluation matrix to evaluate the loss risk of phosphorus. This evaluation was based on quantitative rather than qualitative data to make better precision. It could help making decision support for monitoring water quality of rivers and riparian wetlands.

Development and In Vitro Bioactivity Profiling of Alternative Sustainable Nanomaterials

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable, environmentally benign nanomaterials (NMs) are being designed as alternatives based on functionality to conventional metal-based nanomaterials (NMs) in order to minimize potential risk to human health and the environment. Development of rapid methods to evaluate the ...

Biomarkers of Risk for Colorectal Neoplasia (Team Project #2) — EDRN Public Portal

Cancer.gov

The goal of this project is to evaluate biomarkers in normal colonic mucosa to determine their relationship to the occurrence of short- and long-term colorectal neoplasia. Candidate markers have been proposed by participating investigators based on promising preliminary data. The purpose of this team project is to evaluate these markers in a common, tissue-based reference set, under a uniform, structured protocol.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 6: risk of bias assessment.

PubMed

Waddington, Hugh; Aloe, Ariel M; Becker, Betsy Jane; Djimeu, Eric W; Hombrados, Jorge Garcia; Tugwell, Peter; Wells, George; Reeves, Barney

2017-09-01

Rigorous and transparent bias assessment is a core component of high-quality systematic reviews. We assess modifications to existing risk of bias approaches to incorporate rigorous quasi-experimental approaches with selection on unobservables. These are nonrandomized studies using design-based approaches to control for unobservable sources of confounding such as difference studies, instrumental variables, interrupted time series, natural experiments, and regression-discontinuity designs. We review existing risk of bias tools. Drawing on these tools, we present domains of bias and suggest directions for evaluation questions. The review suggests that existing risk of bias tools provide, to different degrees, incomplete transparent criteria to assess the validity of these designs. The paper then presents an approach to evaluating the internal validity of quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. We conclude that tools for nonrandomized studies of interventions need to be further developed to incorporate evaluation questions for quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Proposed Standardized Neurological Endpoints for Cardiovascular Clinical Trials: An Academic Research Consortium Initiative.

PubMed

Lansky, Alexandra J; Messé, Steven R; Brickman, Adam M; Dwyer, Michael; van der Worp, H Bart; Lazar, Ronald M; Pietras, Cody G; Abrams, Kevin J; McFadden, Eugene; Petersen, Nils H; Browndyke, Jeffrey; Prendergast, Bernard; Ng, Vivian G; Cutlip, Donald E; Kapadia, Samir; Krucoff, Mitchell W; Linke, Axel; Moy, Claudia Scala; Schofer, Joachim; van Es, Gerrit-Anne; Virmani, Renu; Popma, Jeffrey; Parides, Michael K; Kodali, Susheel; Bilello, Michel; Zivadinov, Robert; Akar, Joseph; Furie, Karen L; Gress, Daryl; Voros, Szilard; Moses, Jeffrey; Greer, David; Forrest, John K; Holmes, David; Kappetein, Arie P; Mack, Michael; Baumbach, Andreas

2017-02-14

Surgical and catheter-based cardiovascular procedures and adjunctive pharmacology have an inherent risk of neurological complications. The current diversity of neurological endpoint definitions and ascertainment methods in clinical trials has led to uncertainties in the neurological risk attributable to cardiovascular procedures and inconsistent evaluation of therapies intended to prevent or mitigate neurological injury. Benefit-risk assessment of such procedures should be on the basis of an evaluation of well-defined neurological outcomes that are ascertained with consistent methods and capture the full spectrum of neurovascular injury and its clinical effect. The Neurologic Academic Research Consortium is an international collaboration intended to establish consensus on the definition, classification, and assessment of neurological endpoints applicable to clinical trials of a broad range of cardiovascular interventions. Systematic application of the proposed definitions and assessments will improve our ability to evaluate the risks of cardiovascular procedures and the safety and effectiveness of preventive therapies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Presence and risk assessment of pharmaceuticals in surface water and drinking water.

PubMed

Sanderson, Hans

2011-01-01

Trace amounts of pharmaceuticals have been detected in surface waters in the nano- to microgram per liter range, and in drinking water in the nanogram/L range. The environmental risks of pharmaceuticals in surface waters have been evaluated and generally found to be low if the wastewater is treated before release to the environment. The human health risks of trace amounts of pharmaceuticals in drinking water have however not been evaluated in any great depth. Preliminary screening level assessments suggest risk to be low--but the public and decision-makers are concerned and would like the matter investigated more thoroughly, especially with regards to mixture effects, chronic long-term effects and sensitive sub-populations. The World Health Organization is currently evaluating the need for credible health based guidance associated with low concentrations of pharmaceuticals in drinking water. The aim of this paper is to summarize the state-of-the-science and the ongoing international debate on the topic.

Differences among Job Positions Related to Communication Errors at Construction Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Akiko; Ishida, Toshiro

In a previous study, we classified the communicatio n errors at construction sites as faulty intention and message pattern, inadequate channel pattern, and faulty comprehension pattern. This study seeks to evaluate the degree of risk of communication errors and to investigate differences among people in various job positions in perception of communication error risk . Questionnaires based on the previous study were a dministered to construction workers (n=811; 149 adminis trators, 208 foremen and 454 workers). Administrators evaluated all patterns of communication error risk equally. However, foremen and workers evaluated communication error risk differently in each pattern. The common contributing factors to all patterns wer e inadequate arrangements before work and inadequate confirmation. Some factors were common among patterns but other factors were particular to a specific pattern. To help prevent future accidents at construction sites, administrators should understand how people in various job positions perceive communication errors and propose human factors measures to prevent such errors.

Pharmacological treatments and risks for the food chain.

PubMed

Girardi, C; Odore, R

2008-09-01

Veterinarians play a pivotal role in public health control, in particular in the management of risks deriving from pharmacological treatments of food-producing animals. Veterinary medicinal products can represent a risk for animal health and welfare (side effects, decreased efficacy), for farmers and practitioners administering the drug, for consumers of food of animal origin (presence of residues, occurrence of antibiotic resistance) and for the environment. According to pending European guidelines, risk management starts from marketing authorisation that must be based on risk evaluation and can be denied when the risk/benefit ratio is not favourable considering the advantages for animal health and welfare and for safety of consumers. Veterinarians can prevent and control risks by using correct pharmacological criteria to choose and administer medicinal products and undertaking risk-based inspection of residues of drugs in food of animal origin. Moreover, a major tool for veterinarians to prevent and control drug-borne risk is "pharmacovigilance". Risks for the environment are usually assessed during the pre-marketing approval process, however veterinarians, as risk managers, should educate farmers about correct drug handling and disposal, and periodically verify that suggested measures are applied.

Phytoestrogen consumption from foods and supplements and epithelial ovarian cancer risk: a population-based case control study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background While there is extensive literature evaluating the impact of phytoestrogen consumption on breast cancer risk, its role on ovarian cancer has received little attention. Methods We conducted a population-based case-control study to evaluate phytoestrogen intake from foods and supplements and epithelial ovarian cancer risk. Cases were identified in six counties in New Jersey through the New Jersey State Cancer Registry. Controls were identified by random digit dialing, CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service) lists, and area sampling. A total of 205 cases and 390 controls were included in analyses. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine associations with total phytoestrogens, as well as isoflavones (daidzein, genistein, formononetin, and glycitein), lignans (matairesinol, lariciresinol, pinoresinol, secoisolariciresinol), and coumestrol. Results No statistically significant associations were found with any of the phytoestrogens under evaluation. However, there was a suggestion of an inverse association with total phytoestrogen consumption (from foods and supplements), with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.62 (95% CI: 0.38-1.00; p for trend: 0.04) for the highest vs. lowest tertile of consumption, after adjusting for reproductive covariates, age, race, education, BMI, and total energy. Further adjustment for smoking and physical activity attenuated risk estimates (OR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.41-1.08). There was little evidence of an inverse association for isoflavones, lignans, or coumestrol. Conclusions This study provided some suggestion that phytoestrogen consumption may decrease ovarian cancer risk, although results did not reach statistical significance. PMID:21943063

Risk as a social phenomenon.

PubMed

Jamison, Wesley V

2003-01-01

What do nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef have in common? The answer is multifaceted. They all share aspects of mass production and consumption, and therefore consumer confidence comes into play in evaluating each of the products' merits. They all produce some level of anxiety--be it in response to adverse media coverage, or the successes of adversarial interest groups in publicizing those products' weaknesses--among consumers who wonder what if any level of the product should be consumed. Finally, nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef all share risk; that is, the perceived and real detriments of producing and consuming those products. Whether or not the associated risks--from increased cancer to increased heart disease--are real is beside the point. When talking about risk, scientific education must deal with the perception of risk as much as its reality. Risk is a socially defined phenomenon, and as such, the successful scientists/communicator must understand the social evaluations of it. While many scientists take a rational view of risk evaluation and consumers often make rational decisions about technological and scientific risk based upon the costs and benefits of that technology, this approach is problematic for three reasons. First, the nature of modern risks has changed in that risk is complex, incomprehensible and uncontrollable to the average person. Second, the rational approach assumes that all costs and benefits of a technology, both real and potential, both current and future, can be known and therefore rationally evaluated. This is not the case. Third, evidence from Europe indicates that trust in information sources about risk has fallen, and thus classic scientific education campaigns that rely upon increasing public knowledge and acceptance of technological and scientific risk are problematic. Because of these factors we argue that effective scientific response must begin to understand the social components of risk if campaigns to shape public perception are to have any success. The report concludes that public perceptions concerning risk are driven more by social and moral debates than by scientific or economic debates (340 words).

Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

PubMed

Li, Yan

2017-05-25

The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

A Group-Based Motivational Interviewing Brief Intervention to Reduce Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behavior among Homeless Young Adults

PubMed Central

Tucker, Joan S.; D’Amico, Elizabeth J.; Ewing, Brett A.; Miles, Jeremy N. V.; Pedersen, Eric R.

2017-01-01

Homeless young adults ages 18–25 exhibit high rates of alcohol and other drug (AOD) use, and sexual risk behaviors such as unprotected sex. Yet few programs exist for this population that are both effective and can be easily incorporated into settings serving this population. This pilot cluster cross-over randomized controlled trial evaluates AWARE, a voluntary four session group-based motivational interviewing (MI) intervention to reduce AOD use and sexual risk behavior. We evaluated AWARE with 200 homeless young adults using drop-in center services in Los Angeles County (mean age=21.8 years; 73% male; 79% heterosexual; 31% non-Hispanic White, 25% African American, 24% Hispanic, 21% multiracial/other). Surveys were completed at baseline and three months after program completion. Retention in the AWARE program was excellent (79% attended multiple sessions) and participants reported high levels of satisfaction with the program. AWARE participants self-reported positive change in their past 3 month and past 30 day alcohol use (ps ≤ .05), motivation to change drug use (ps < .05), and condom use self-efficacy (p = .05) compared to the control group. Among those with multiple sex partners, AWARE participants showed a decrease in unprotected sexual events (p < .05), whereas the control group did not. Results from this pilot evaluation are promising, suggesting that a brief group-MI risk reduction intervention can be effective in helping homeless young adults make positive changes in their alcohol and condom use. Further work is needed to more fully evaluate the efficacy of AWARE on AOD behavior and sexual risk behavior outcomes. PMID:28340904

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) evaluation of the carcinogenicity of outdoor air pollution: focus on China.

PubMed

Loomis, Dana; Huang, Wei; Chen, Guosheng

2014-04-01

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has classified outdoor air pollution and the particulate matter (PM) in outdoor air pollution as carcinogenic to humans, as based on sufficient evidence of carcinogenicity in humans and experimental animals and strong support by mechanistic studies. The data with important contributions to the evaluation are reviewed, highlighting the data with particular relevance to China, and implications of the evaluation with respect to China are discussed. The air pollution levels in Chinese cities are among the highest observed in the world today and frequently exceed health-based national and international guidelines. Data from high-quality epidemiologic studies in Asia, Europe, and North America consistently show positive associations between lung cancer and PM exposure and other indicators of air pollution, which persist after adjustment for important lung cancer risk factors, such as tobacco smoking. Epidemiologic data from China are limited but nevertheless indicate an increased risk of lung cancer associated with several air pollutants. Excess cancer risk is also observed in experimental animals exposed to polluted outdoor air or extracted PM. The exposure of several species to outdoor air pollution is associated with markers of genetic damage that have been linked to increased cancer risk in humans. Numerous studies from China, especially genetic biomarker studies in exposed populations, support that the polluted air in China is genotoxic and carcinogenic to humans. The evaluation by IARC indicates both the need for further research into the cancer risks associated with exposure to air pollution in China and the urgent need to act to reduce exposure to the population.

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) evaluation of the carcinogenicity of outdoor air pollution: focus on China

PubMed Central

Loomis, Dana; Huang, Wei; Chen, Guosheng

2014-01-01

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has classified outdoor air pollution and the particulate matter (PM) in outdoor air pollution as carcinogenic to humans, as based on sufficient evidence of carcinogenicity in humans and experimental animals and strong support by mechanistic studies. The data with important contributions to the evaluation are reviewed, highlighting the data with particular relevance to China, and implications of the evaluation with respect to China are discussed. The air pollution levels in Chinese cities are among the highest observed in the world today and frequently exceed health-based national and international guidelines. Data from high-quality epidemiologic studies in Asia, Europe, and North America consistently show positive associations between lung cancer and PM exposure and other indicators of air pollution, which persist after adjustment for important lung cancer risk factors, such as tobacco smoking. Epidemiologic data from China are limited but nevertheless indicate an increased risk of lung cancer associated with several air pollutants. Excess cancer risk is also observed in experimental animals exposed to polluted outdoor air or extracted PM. The exposure of several species to outdoor air pollution is associated with markers of genetic damage that have been linked to increased cancer risk in humans. Numerous studies from China, especially genetic biomarker studies in exposed populations, support that the polluted air in China is genotoxic and carcinogenic to humans. The evaluation by IARC indicates both the need for further research into the cancer risks associated with exposure to air pollution in China and the urgent need to act to reduce exposure to the population. PMID:24694836

99mTc MDP SPECT-CT-Based Modified Mirels Classification for Evaluation of Risk of Fracture in Skeletal Metastasis: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Riaz, Saima; Bashir, Humayun; Niazi, Imran Khalid; Butt, Sumera; Qamar, Faisal

2018-06-01

Mirels' scoring system quantifies the risk of sustaining a pathologic fracture in osseous metastases of weight bearing long bones. Conventional Mirels' scoring is based on radiographs. Our pilot study proposes Tc MDP bone SPECT-CT based modified Mirels' scoring system and its comparison with conventional Mirels' scoring. Cortical lysis was noted in 8(24%) by SPECT-CT versus 2 (6.3%) on X-rays. Additional SPECT-CT parameters were; circumferential involvement [1/4 (31%), 1/2 (3%), 3/4 (37.5%), 4/4 (28%)] and extra-osseous soft tissue [3%]. Our pilot study suggests the potential role of SPECT-CT in predicting risk of fracture in osseous metastases.